Total coliform and E. coli in public water systems using undisinfected ground water in the United States.

PubMed

Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Javier, Julie

2017-06-01

Public water systems (PWSs) in the United States generate total coliform (TC) and Escherichia coli (EC) monitoring data, as required by the Total Coliform Rule (TCR). We analyzed data generated in 2011 by approximately 38,000 small (serving fewer than 4101 individuals) undisinfected public water systems (PWSs). We used statistical modeling to characterize a distribution of TC detection probabilities for each of nine groupings of PWSs based on system type (community, non-transient non-community, and transient non-community) and population served (less than 101, 101-1000 and 1001-4100 people). We found that among PWS types sampled in 2011, on average, undisinfected transient PWSs test positive for TC 4.3% of the time as compared with 3% for undisinfected non-transient PWSs and 2.5% for undisinfected community PWSs. Within each type of PWS, the smaller systems have higher median TC detection than the larger systems. All TC-positive samples were assayed for EC. Among TC-positive samples from small undisinfected PWSs, EC is detected in about 5% of samples, regardless of PWS type or size. We evaluated the upper tail of the TC detection probability distributions and found that significant percentages of some system types have high TC detection probabilities. For example, assuming the systems providing data are nationally-representative, then 5.0% of the ∼50,000 small undisinfected transient PWSs in the U.S. have TC detection probabilities of 20% or more. Communities with such high TC detection probabilities may have elevated risk of acute gastrointestinal (AGI) illness - perhaps as great or greater than the attributable risk to drinking water (6-22%) calculated for 14 Wisconsin community PWSs with much lower TC detection probabilities (about 2.3%, Borchardt et al., 2012). Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

Detection of cat-eye effect echo based on unit APD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Dong-Sheng; Zhang, Peng; Hu, Wen-Gang; Ying, Jia-Ju; Liu, Jie

2016-10-01

The cat-eye effect echo of optical system can be detected based on CCD, but the detection range is limited within several kilometers. In order to achieve long-range even ultra-long-range detection, it ought to select APD as detector because of the high sensitivity of APD. The detection system of cat-eye effect echo based on unit APD is designed in paper. The implementation scheme and key technology of the detection system is presented. The detection performances of the detection system including detection range, detection probability and false alarm probability are modeled. Based on the model, the performances of the detection system are analyzed using typical parameters. The results of numerical calculation show that the echo signal-to-noise ratio is greater than six, the detection probability is greater than 99.9% and the false alarm probability is less tan 0.1% within 20 km detection range. In order to verify the detection effect, we built the experimental platform of detection system according to the design scheme and carry out the field experiments. The experimental results agree well with the results of numerical calculation, which prove that the detection system based on the unit APD is feasible to realize remote detection for cat-eye effect echo.

Understanding environmental DNA detection probabilities: A case study using a stream-dwelling char Salvelinus fontinalis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, Taylor M; Mckelvey, Kevin S.; Young, Michael K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Shepard, Bradley B.; Jane, Stephen F; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA sampling (eDNA) has emerged as a powerful tool for detecting aquatic animals. Previous research suggests that eDNA methods are substantially more sensitive than traditional sampling. However, the factors influencing eDNA detection and the resulting sampling costs are still not well understood. Here we use multiple experiments to derive independent estimates of eDNA production rates and downstream persistence from brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in streams. We use these estimates to parameterize models comparing the false negative detection rates of eDNA sampling and traditional backpack electrofishing. We find that using the protocols in this study eDNA had reasonable detection probabilities at extremely low animal densities (e.g., probability of detection 0.18 at densities of one fish per stream kilometer) and very high detection probabilities at population-level densities (e.g., probability of detection > 0.99 at densities of ≥ 3 fish per 100 m). This is substantially more sensitive than traditional electrofishing for determining the presence of brook trout and may translate into important cost savings when animals are rare. Our findings are consistent with a growing body of literature showing that eDNA sampling is a powerful tool for the detection of aquatic species, particularly those that are rare and difficult to sample using traditional methods.

A Bayesian Method for Managing Uncertainties Relating to Distributed Multistatic Sensor Search

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-01

before - detect process. There will also be an increased probability of high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) detections associated with specular and near...and high target strength and high Doppler opportunities give rise to the expectation of an increased number of detections that could feed a track

Probability of detection of nests and implications for survey design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, P.A.; Bart, J.; Lanctot, Richard B.; McCaffery, B.J.; Brown, S.

2009-01-01

Surveys based on double sampling include a correction for the probability of detection by assuming complete enumeration of birds in an intensively surveyed subsample of plots. To evaluate this assumption, we calculated the probability of detecting active shorebird nests by using information from observers who searched the same plots independently. Our results demonstrate that this probability varies substantially by species and stage of the nesting cycle but less by site or density of nests. Among the species we studied, the estimated single-visit probability of nest detection during the incubation period varied from 0.21 for the White-rumped Sandpiper (Calidris fuscicollis), the most difficult species to detect, to 0.64 for the Western Sandpiper (Calidris mauri), the most easily detected species, with a mean across species of 0.46. We used these detection probabilities to predict the fraction of persistent nests found over repeated nest searches. For a species with the mean value for detectability, the detection rate exceeded 0.85 after four visits. This level of nest detection was exceeded in only three visits for the Western Sandpiper, but six to nine visits were required for the White-rumped Sandpiper, depending on the type of survey employed. Our results suggest that the double-sampling method's requirement of nearly complete counts of birds in the intensively surveyed plots is likely to be met for birds with nests that survive over several visits of nest searching. Individuals with nests that fail quickly or individuals that do not breed can be detected with high probability only if territorial behavior is used to identify likely nesting pairs. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society, 2009.

Variables associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldinger, Kyle R.; Wood, Petra B.

2015-01-01

Detection probability during point counts and its associated variables are important considerations for bird population monitoring and have implications for conservation planning by influencing population estimates. During 2008–2009, we evaluated variables hypothesized to be associated with detection probability, detection latency, and behavioral responses of male Golden-winged Warblers in pastures in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, USA. This is the first study of male Golden-winged Warbler detection probability, detection latency, or behavioral response based on point-count sampling with known territory locations and identities for all males. During 3-min passive point counts, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory and time since sunrise increased. During 3-min point counts with playback, detection probability decreased as distance to a male's territory increased, but remained constant as time since sunrise increased. Detection probability was greater when point counts included type 2 compared with type 1 song playback, particularly during the first 2 min of type 2 song playback. Golden-winged Warblers primarily use type 1 songs (often zee bee bee bee with a higher-pitched first note) in intersexual contexts and type 2 songs (strident, rapid stutter ending with a lower-pitched buzzy note) in intrasexual contexts. Distance to a male's territory, ordinal date, and song playback type were associated with the type of behavioral response to song playback. Overall, ~2 min of type 2 song playback may increase the efficacy of point counts for monitoring populations of Golden-winged Warblers by increasing the conspicuousness of males for visual identification and offsetting the consequences of surveying later in the morning. Because playback may interfere with the ability to detect distant males, it is important to follow playback with a period of passive listening. Our results indicate that even in relatively open pasture vegetation, detection probability of male Golden-winged Warblers is imperfect and highly variable.

Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way

PubMed Central

Grimaldi, Claudio

2017-01-01

The lack of evidence for the existence of extraterrestrial life, even the simplest forms of animal life, makes it is difficult to decide whether the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is more a high-risk, high-payoff endeavor than a futile attempt. Here we insist that even if extraterrestrial civilizations do exist and communicate, the likelihood of detecting their signals crucially depends on whether the Earth lies within a region of the galaxy covered by such signals. By considering possible populations of independent emitters in the galaxy, we build a statistical model of the domain covered by hypothetical extraterrestrial signals to derive the detection probability that the Earth is within such a domain. We show that for general distributions of the signal longevity and directionality, the mean number of detectable emitters is less than one even for detection probabilities as large as 50%, regardless of the number of emitters in the galaxy. PMID:28401943

Detection of the nipple in automated 3D breast ultrasound using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hannah; Hong, Helen

2014-03-01

We propose an automatic method for nipple detection on 3D automated breast ultrasound (3D ABUS) images using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map. First, to identify coronal images that appeared remarkable distinction between nipple-areola region and skin, skewness of each coronal image is measured and the negatively skewed images are selected. Then, coronal slab-average-projection image is reformatted from selected images. Second, to localize nipple-areola region, elliptical ROI covering nipple-areola region is detected using Hough ellipse transform in coronal slab-average-projection image. Finally, to separate the nipple from areola region, 3D Otsu's thresholding is applied to the elliptical ROI and cumulative probability map in the elliptical ROI is generated by assigning high probability to low intensity region. False detected small components are eliminated using morphological opening and the center point of detected nipple region is calculated. Experimental results show that our method provides 94.4% nipple detection rate.

Laser based in-situ and standoff detection of chemical warfare agents and explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, C. Kumar N.

2009-09-01

Laser based detection of gaseous, liquid and solid residues and trace amounts has been developed ever since lasers were invented. However, the lack of availability of reasonably high power tunable lasers in the spectral regions where the relevant targets can be interrogated as well as appropriate techniques for high sensitivity, high selectivity detection has hampered the practical exploitation of techniques for the detection of targets important for homeland security and defense applications. Furthermore, emphasis has been on selectivity without particular attention being paid to the impact of interfering species on the quality of detection. Having high sensitivity is necessary but not a sufficient condition. High sensitivity assures a high probability of detection of the target species. However, it is only recently that the sensor community has come to recognize that any measure of probability of detection must be associated with a probability of false alarm, if it is to have any value as a measure of performance. This is especially true when one attempts to compare performance characteristics of different sensors based on different physical principles. In this paper, I will provide a methodology for characterizing the performance of sensors utilizing optical absorption measurement techniques. However, the underlying principles are equally application to all other sensors. While most of the current progress in high sensitivity, high selectivity detection of CWAs, TICs and explosives involve identifying and quantifying the target species in-situ, there is an urgent need for standoff detection of explosives from safe distances. I will describe our results on CO2 and quantum cascade laser (QCL) based photoacoustic sensors for the detection of CWAs, TICs and explosives as well the very new results on stand-off detection of explosives at distances up to 150 meters. The latter results are critically important for assuring safety of military personnel in battlefield environment, especially from improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and of civilian personnel from terrorist attacks in metropolitan areas.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms.

PubMed

de Souza, Lesley S; Godwin, James C; Renshaw, Mark A; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms

PubMed Central

de Souza, Lesley S.; Godwin, James C.; Renshaw, Mark A.; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs. PMID:27776150

Effectiveness of scat detection dogs for detecting forest carnivores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Robert A.; Donovan, T.M.; MacKay, Paula; Zielinski, William J.; Buzas, Jeffrey S.

2007-01-01

We assessed the detection and accuracy rates of detection dogs trained to locate scats from free-ranging black bears (Ursus americanus), fishers (Martes pennanti), and bobcats (Lynx rufus). During the summers of 2003-2004, 5 detection teams located 1,565 scats (747 putative black bear, 665 putative fisher, and 153 putative bobcat) at 168 survey sites throughout Vermont, USA. Of 347 scats genetically analyzed for species identification, 179 (51.6%) yielded a positive identification, 131 (37.8%) failed to yield DNA information, and 37 (10.7%) yielded DNA but provided no species confirmation. For 70 survey sites where confirmation of a putative target species' scat was not possible, we assessed the probability that ???1 of the scats collected at the site was deposited by the target species (probability of correct identification; P ID). Based on species confirmations or PID values, we detected bears at 57.1% (96) of sites, fishers at 61.3% (103) of sites, and bobcats at 12.5%o (21) of sites. We estimated that the mean probability of detecting the target species (when present) during a single visit to a site was 0.86 for black bears, 0.95 for fishers, and 0.40 for bobcats. The probability of detecting black bears was largely unaffected by site- or visit-specific covariates, but the probability of detecting fishers varied by detection team. We found little or no effect of topographic ruggedness, vegetation density, or local weather (e.g., temp, humidity) on detection probability for fishers or black bears (data were insufficient for bobcat analyses). Detection dogs were highly effective at locating scats from forest carnivores and provided an efficient and accurate method for collecting detection-nondetection data on multiple species.

Is the detection of aquatic environmental DNA influenced by substrate type?

PubMed

Buxton, Andrew S; Groombridge, Jim J; Griffiths, Richard A

2017-01-01

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) to assess the presence-absence of rare, cryptic or invasive species is hindered by a poor understanding of the factors that can remove DNA from the system. In aquatic systems, eDNA can be transported out either horizontally in water flows or vertically by incorporation into the sediment. Equally, eDNA may be broken down by various biotic and abiotic processes if the target organism leaves the system. We use occupancy modelling and a replicated mesocosm experiment to examine how detection probability of eDNA changes once the target species is no longer present. We hypothesise that detection probability falls faster with a sediment which has a large number of DNA binding sites such as topsoil or clay, over lower DNA binding capacity substrates such as sand. Water removed from ponds containing the target species (the great crested newt) initially showed high detection probabilities, but these fell to between 40% and 60% over the first 10 days and to between 10% and 22% by day 15: eDNA remained detectable at very low levels until day 22. Very little difference in detection was observed between the control group (no substrate) and the sand substrate. A small reduction in detection probability was observed between the control and clay substrates, but this was not significant. However, a highly significant reduction in detection probability was observed with a topsoil substrate. This result is likely to have stemmed from increased levels of PCR inhibition, suggesting that incorporation of DNA into the sentiment is of only limited importance. Surveys of aquatic species using eDNA clearly need to take account of substrate type as well as other environmental factors when collecting samples, analysing data and interpreting the results.

Early detection monitoring for larval dreissenid mussels: How much plankton sampling is enough?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, Timothy D.; Bollens, Stephen M.

2017-01-01

The development of quagga and zebra mussel (dreissenids) monitoring programs in the Pacific Northwest provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a regional invasive species detection effort early in its development. Recent studies suggest that the ecological and economic costs of a dreissenid infestation in the Pacific Northwest of the USA would be significant. Consequently, efforts are underway to monitor for the presence of dreissenids. However, assessments of whether these efforts provide for early detection are lacking. We use information collected from 2012 to 2014 to characterize the development of larval dreissenid monitoring programs in the states of Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington in the context of introduction and establishment risk. We also estimate the effort needed for high-probability detection of rare planktonic taxa in four Columbia and Snake River reservoirs and assess whether the current level of effort provides for early detection. We found that the effort expended to monitor for dreissenid mussels increased substantially from 2012 to 2014, that efforts were distributed across risk categories ranging from high to very low, and that substantial gaps in our knowledge of both introduction and establishment risk exist. The estimated volume of filtered water required to fully census planktonic taxa or to provide high-probability detection of rare taxa was high for the four reservoirs examined. We conclude that the current level of effort expended does not provide for high-probability detection of larval dreissenids or other planktonic taxa when they are rare in these reservoirs. We discuss options to improve early detection capabilities.

Algorithms of Crescent Structure Detection in Human Biological Fluid Facies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasheninnikov, V. R.; Malenova, O. E.; Yashina, A. S.

2017-05-01

One of the effective methods of early medical diagnosis is based on the image analysis of human biological fluids. In the process of fluid crystallization there appear characteristic patterns (markers) in the resulting layer (facies). Each marker is a highly probable sign of some pathology even at an early stage of a disease development. When mass health examination is carried out, it is necessary to analyze a large number of images. That is why, the problem of algorithm and software development for automated processing of images is rather urgent nowadays. This paper presents algorithms to detect a crescent structures in images of blood serum and cervical mucus facies. Such a marker indicates the symptoms of ischemic disease. The algorithm presented detects this marker with high probability when the probability of false alarm is low.

Spatial Probability Dynamically Modulates Visual Target Detection in Chickens

PubMed Central

Sridharan, Devarajan; Ramamurthy, Deepa L.; Knudsen, Eric I.

2013-01-01

The natural world contains a rich and ever-changing landscape of sensory information. To survive, an organism must be able to flexibly and rapidly locate the most relevant sources of information at any time. Humans and non-human primates exploit regularities in the spatial distribution of relevant stimuli (targets) to improve detection at locations of high target probability. Is the ability to flexibly modify behavior based on visual experience unique to primates? Chickens (Gallus domesticus) were trained on a multiple alternative Go/NoGo task to detect a small, briefly-flashed dot (target) in each of the quadrants of the visual field. When targets were presented with equal probability (25%) in each quadrant, chickens exhibited a distinct advantage for detecting targets at lower, relative to upper, hemifield locations. Increasing the probability of presentation in the upper hemifield locations (to 80%) dramatically improved detection performance at these locations to be on par with lower hemifield performance. Finally, detection performance in the upper hemifield changed on a rapid timescale, improving with successive target detections, and declining with successive detections at the diagonally opposite location in the lower hemifield. These data indicate the action of a process that in chickens, as in primates, flexibly and dynamically modulates detection performance based on the spatial probabilities of sensory stimuli as well as on recent performance history. PMID:23734188

Organic Over-the-Horizon Targeting for the 2025 Surface Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

Detection Phit Probability of Hit Pk Probability of Kill PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PMEL Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory...probability of hit ( Phit ). 2. Top-Level Functional Flow Block Diagram With the high-level functions of the project’s systems of systems properly

Statistics provide guidance for indigenous organic carbon detection on Mars missions.

PubMed

Sephton, Mark A; Carter, Jonathan N

2014-08-01

Data from the Viking and Mars Science Laboratory missions indicate the presence of organic compounds that are not definitively martian in origin. Both contamination and confounding mineralogies have been suggested as alternatives to indigenous organic carbon. Intuitive thought suggests that we are repeatedly obtaining data that confirms the same level of uncertainty. Bayesian statistics may suggest otherwise. If an organic detection method has a true positive to false positive ratio greater than one, then repeated organic matter detection progressively increases the probability of indigeneity. Bayesian statistics also reveal that methods with higher ratios of true positives to false positives give higher overall probabilities and that detection of organic matter in a sample with a higher prior probability of indigenous organic carbon produces greater confidence. Bayesian statistics, therefore, provide guidance for the planning and operation of organic carbon detection activities on Mars. Suggestions for future organic carbon detection missions and instruments are as follows: (i) On Earth, instruments should be tested with analog samples of known organic content to determine their true positive to false positive ratios. (ii) On the mission, for an instrument with a true positive to false positive ratio above one, it should be recognized that each positive detection of organic carbon will result in a progressive increase in the probability of indigenous organic carbon being present; repeated measurements, therefore, can overcome some of the deficiencies of a less-than-definitive test. (iii) For a fixed number of analyses, the highest true positive to false positive ratio method or instrument will provide the greatest probability that indigenous organic carbon is present. (iv) On Mars, analyses should concentrate on samples with highest prior probability of indigenous organic carbon; intuitive desires to contrast samples of high prior probability and low prior probability of indigenous organic carbon should be resisted.

A Method of Face Detection with Bayesian Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarker, Goutam

2010-10-01

The objective of face detection is to identify all images which contain a face, irrespective of its orientation, illumination conditions etc. This is a hard problem, because the faces are highly variable in size, shape lighting conditions etc. Many methods have been designed and developed to detect faces in a single image. The present paper is based on one `Appearance Based Method' which relies on learning the facial and non facial features from image examples. This in its turn is based on statistical analysis of examples and counter examples of facial images and employs Bayesian Conditional Classification Rule to detect the probability of belongingness of a face (or non-face) within an image frame. The detection rate of the present system is very high and thereby the number of false positive and false negative detection is substantially low.

Xpert MTB/RIF assay for diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in children: a prospective, multi-centre evaluation.

PubMed

Reither, Klaus; Manyama, Christina; Clowes, Petra; Rachow, Andrea; Mapamba, Daniel; Steiner, Andreas; Ross, Amanda; Mfinanga, Elirehema; Sasamalo, Mohamed; Nsubuga, Martin; Aloi, Francesco; Cirillo, Daniela; Jugheli, Levan; Lwilla, Fred

2015-04-01

Following endorsement by the World Health Organisation, the Xpert MTB/RIF assay has been widely incorporated into algorithms for the diagnosis of adult tuberculosis (TB). However, data on its performance in children remain scarce. This prospective, multi-centre study evaluated the performance of Xpert MTB/RIF to diagnose pulmonary tuberculosis in children. Children older than eight weeks and younger than 16 years with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis were enrolled at three TB endemic settings in Tanzania and Uganda, and assigned to five well-defined case definition categories: culture-confirmed TB, highly probable TB, probable TB, not TB, or indeterminate. The diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF was assessed using culture-confirmed TB cases as reference standard. In total, 451 children were enrolled. 37 (8%) had culture-confirmed TB, 48 (11%) highly probably TB and 62 probable TB (13%). The Xpert MTB/RIF assay had a sensitivity of 68% (95% CI, 50%-82%) and specificity of 100% (95% CI, 97%-100%); detecting 1.7 times more culture-confirmed cases than smear microscopy with a similar time to detection. Xpert MTB/RIF was positive in 2% (1/48) of highly probable and in 3% (2/62) of probable TB cases. Xpert MTB/RIF provided timely results with moderate sensitivity and excellent specificity compared to culture. Low yields in children with highly probable and probable TB remain problematic. Copyright © 2014 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection probability of an in-stream passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag detection system for juvenile salmonids in the Klamath River, northern California, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Hayes, Brian; Wright, Katrina

2012-01-01

A series of in-stream passive integrated transponder (PIT) detection antennas installed across the Klamath River in August 2010 were tested using tagged fish in the summer of 2011. Six pass-by antennas were constructed and anchored to the bottom of the Klamath River at a site between the Shasta and Scott Rivers. Two of the six antennas malfunctioned during the spring of 2011 and two pass-through antennas were installed near the opposite shoreline prior to system testing. The detection probability of the PIT tag detection system was evaluated using yearling coho salmon implanted with a PIT tag and a radio transmitter and then released into the Klamath River slightly downstream of Iron Gate Dam. Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the detection probability of the PIT tag detection system based on detections of PIT tags there and detections of radio transmitters at radio-telemetry detection systems downstream. One of the 43 PIT- and radio-tagged fish released was detected by the PIT tag detection system and 23 were detected by the radio-telemetry detection systems. The estimated detection probability of the PIT tag detection system was 0.043 (standard error 0.042). Eight PIT-tagged fish from other studies also were detected. Detections at the PIT tag detection system were at the two pass-through antennas and the pass-by antenna adjacent to them. Above average river discharge likely was a factor in the low detection probability of the PIT tag detection system. High discharges dislodged two power cables leaving 12 meters of the river width unsampled for PIT detections and resulted in water depths greater than the read distance of the antennas, which allowed fish to pass over much of the system with little chance of being detected. Improvements in detection probability may be expected under river discharge conditions where water depth over the antennas is within maximum read distance of the antennas. Improvements also may be expected if additional arrays of antennas are used.

Modeling of site occupancy dynamics for northern spotted owls, with emphasis on the effects of barred owls

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Gail S.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Ackers, Steven H.; Loschl, Peter J.; Reid, Janice A.; Dugger, Katie M.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Ripple, William J.

2005-01-01

Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have been studied intensively since their listing as a threatened species by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. Studies of spotted owl site occupancy have used various binary response measures, but most of these studies have made the assumption that detectability is perfect, or at least high and not variable. Further, previous studies did not consider temporal variation in site occupancy. We used relatively new methods for open population modeling of site occupancy that incorporated imperfect and variable detectability of spotted owls and allowed modeling of temporal variation in site occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities. We also examined the effects of barred owl (S. varia) presence on these parameters. We used spotted owl survey data from 1990 to 2002 for 3 study areas in Oregon, USA, and we used program MARK to develop and analyze site occupancy models. We found per visit detection probabilities averaged <0.70 and were highly variable among study years and study areas. Site occupancy probabilities for owl pairs declined greatly on 1 study area and slightly on the other 2 areas. For all owls, including singles and pairs, site occupancy was mostly stable through time. Barred owl presence had a negative effect on spotted owl detection probabilities, and it had either a positive effect on local-extinction probabilities or a negative effect on colonization probabilities. We conclude that further analyses of spotted owls must account for imperfect and variable detectability and barred owl presence to properly interpret results. Further, because barred owl presence is increasing within the range of northern spotted owls, we expect to see further declines in the proportion of sites occupied by spotted owls.

The effects of flow on schooling Devario aequipinnatus: school structure, startle response and information transmission

PubMed Central

Chicoli, A.; Butail, S.; Lun, Y.; Bak-Coleman, J.; Coombs, S.; Paley, D.A.

2014-01-01

To assess how flow affects school structure and threat detection, startle response rates of solitary and small groups of giant danio Devario aequipinnatus were compared to visual looming stimuli in flow and no-flow conditions. The instantaneous position and heading of each D. aequipinnatus were extracted from high-speed videos. Behavioural results indicate that (1) school structure is altered in flow such that D. aequipinnatus orient upstream while spanning out in a crosswise direction, (2) the probability of at least one D. aequipinnatus detecting the visual looming stimulus is higher in flow than no flow for both solitary D. aequipinnatus and groups of eight D. aequipinnatus, however, (3) the probability of three or more individuals responding is higher in no flow than flow. Taken together, these results indicate a higher probability of stimulus detection in flow but a higher probability of internal transmission of information in no flow. Finally, results were well predicted by a computational model of collective fright response that included the probability of direct detection (based on signal detection theory) and indirect detection (i.e. via interactions between group members) of threatening stimuli. This model provides a new theoretical framework for analysing the collective transfer of information among groups of fishes and other organisms. PMID:24773538

A Comparative Study of Automated Infrasound Detectors - PMCC and AFD with Analyst Review.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Junghyun; Hayward, Chris; Zeiler, Cleat

Automated detections calculated by the progressive multi-channel correlation (PMCC) method (Cansi, 1995) and the adaptive F detector (AFD) (Arrowsmith et al., 2009) are compared to the signals identified by five independent analysts. Each detector was applied to a four-hour time sequence recorded by the Korean infrasound array CHNAR. This array was used because it is composed of both small (<100 m) and large (~1000 m) aperture element spacing. The four hour time sequence contained a number of easily identified signals under noise conditions that have average RMS amplitudes varied from 1.2 to 4.5 mPa (1 to 5 Hz), estimated withmore » running five-minute window. The effectiveness of the detectors was estimated for the small aperture, large aperture, small aperture combined with the large aperture, and full array. The full and combined arrays performed the best for AFD under all noise conditions while the large aperture array had the poorest performance for both detectors. PMCC produced similar results as AFD under the lower noise conditions, but did not produce as dramatic an increase in detections using the full and combined arrays. Both automated detectors and the analysts produced a decrease in detections under the higher noise conditions. Comparing the detection probabilities with Estimated Receiver Operating Characteristic (EROC) curves we found that the smaller value of consistency for PMCC and the larger p-value for AFD had the highest detection probability. These parameters produced greater changes in detection probability than estimates of the false alarm rate. The detection probability was impacted the most by noise level, with low noise (average RMS amplitude of 1.7 mPa) having an average detection probability of ~40% and high noise (average RMS amplitude of 2.9 mPa) average detection probability of ~23%.« less

Detection probability of least tern and piping plover chicks in a large river system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roche, Erin A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Anteau, Michael J.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Dovichin, Colin M.

2014-01-01

Monitoring the abundance and stability of populations of conservation concern is often complicated by an inability to perfectly detect all members of the population. Mark-recapture offers a flexible framework in which one may identify factors contributing to imperfect detection, while at the same time estimating demographic parameters such as abundance or survival. We individually color-marked, recaptured, and re-sighted 1,635 federally listed interior least tern (Sternula antillarum; endangered) chicks and 1,318 piping plover (Charadrius melodus; threatened) chicks from 2006 to 2009 at 4 study areas along the Missouri River and investigated effects of observer-, subject-, and site-level covariates suspected of influencing detection. Increasing the time spent searching and crew size increased the probability of detecting both species regardless of study area and detection methods were not associated with decreased survival. However, associations between detection probability and the investigated covariates were highly variable by study area and species combinations, indicating that a universal mark-recapture design may not be appropriate.

Laser radar system for obstacle avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bers, Karlheinz; Schulz, Karl R.; Armbruster, Walter

2005-09-01

The threat of hostile surveillance and weapon systems require military aircraft to fly under extreme conditions such as low altitude, high speed, poor visibility and incomplete terrain information. The probability of collision with natural and man-made obstacles during such contour missions is high if detection capability is restricted to conventional vision aids. Forward-looking scanning laser radars which are build by the EADS company and presently being flight tested and evaluated at German proving grounds, provide a possible solution, having a large field of view, high angular and range resolution, a high pulse repetition rate, and sufficient pulse energy to register returns from objects at distances of military relevance with a high hit-and-detect probability. The development of advanced 3d-scene analysis algorithms had increased the recognition probability and reduced the false alarm rate by using more readily recognizable objects such as terrain, poles, pylons, trees, etc. to generate a parametric description of the terrain surface as well as the class, position, orientation, size and shape of all objects in the scene. The sensor system and the implemented algorithms can be used for other applications such as terrain following, autonomous obstacle avoidance, and automatic target recognition. This paper describes different 3D-imaging ladar sensors with unique system architecture but different components matched for different military application. Emphasis is laid on an obstacle warning system with a high probability of detection of thin wires, the real time processing of the measured range image data, obstacle classification und visualization.

Expert system constant false alarm rate processor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldygo, William J., Jr.; Wicks, Michael C.

1993-10-01

The requirements for high detection probability and low false alarm probability in modern wide area surveillance radars are rarely met due to spatial variations in clutter characteristics. Many filtering and CFAR detection algorithms have been developed to effectively deal with these variations; however, any single algorithm is likely to exhibit excessive false alarms and intolerably low detection probabilities in a dynamically changing environment. A great deal of research has led to advances in the state of the art in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and numerous areas have been identified for application to radar signal processing. The approach suggested here, discussed in a patent application submitted by the authors, is to intelligently select the filtering and CFAR detection algorithms being executed at any given time, based upon the observed characteristics of the interference environment. This approach requires sensing the environment, employing the most suitable algorithms, and applying an appropriate multiple algorithm fusion scheme or consensus algorithm to produce a global detection decision.

Assessing environmental DNA detection in controlled lentic systems.

PubMed

Moyer, Gregory R; Díaz-Ferguson, Edgardo; Hill, Jeffrey E; Shea, Colin

2014-01-01

Little consideration has been given to environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling strategies for rare species. The certainty of species detection relies on understanding false positive and false negative error rates. We used artificial ponds together with logistic regression models to assess the detection of African jewelfish eDNA at varying fish densities (0, 0.32, 1.75, and 5.25 fish/m3). Our objectives were to determine the most effective water stratum for eDNA detection, estimate true and false positive eDNA detection rates, and assess the number of water samples necessary to minimize the risk of false negatives. There were 28 eDNA detections in 324, 1-L, water samples collected from four experimental ponds. The best-approximating model indicated that the per-L-sample probability of eDNA detection was 4.86 times more likely for every 2.53 fish/m3 (1 SD) increase in fish density and 1.67 times less likely for every 1.02 C (1 SD) increase in water temperature. The best section of the water column to detect eDNA was the surface and to a lesser extent the bottom. Although no false positives were detected, the estimated likely number of false positives in samples from ponds that contained fish averaged 3.62. At high densities of African jewelfish, 3-5 L of water provided a >95% probability for the presence/absence of its eDNA. Conversely, at moderate and low densities, the number of water samples necessary to achieve a >95% probability of eDNA detection approximated 42-73 and >100 L, respectively. Potential biases associated with incomplete detection of eDNA could be alleviated via formal estimation of eDNA detection probabilities under an occupancy modeling framework; alternatively, the filtration of hundreds of liters of water may be required to achieve a high (e.g., 95%) level of certainty that African jewelfish eDNA will be detected at low densities (i.e., <0.32 fish/m3 or 1.75 g/m3).

A Probability-Based Algorithm Using Image Sensors to Track the LED in a Vehicle Visible Light Communication System.

PubMed

Huynh, Phat; Do, Trong-Hop; Yoo, Myungsik

2017-02-10

This paper proposes a probability-based algorithm to track the LED in vehicle visible light communication systems using a camera. In this system, the transmitters are the vehicles' front and rear LED lights. The receivers are high speed cameras that take a series of images of the LEDs. ThedataembeddedinthelightisextractedbyfirstdetectingthepositionoftheLEDsintheseimages. Traditionally, LEDs are detected according to pixel intensity. However, when the vehicle is moving, motion blur occurs in the LED images, making it difficult to detect the LEDs. Particularly at high speeds, some frames are blurred at a high degree, which makes it impossible to detect the LED as well as extract the information embedded in these frames. The proposed algorithm relies not only on the pixel intensity, but also on the optical flow of the LEDs and on statistical information obtained from previous frames. Based on this information, the conditional probability that a pixel belongs to a LED is calculated. Then, the position of LED is determined based on this probability. To verify the suitability of the proposed algorithm, simulations are conducted by considering the incidents that can happen in a real-world situation, including a change in the position of the LEDs at each frame, as well as motion blur due to the vehicle speed.

Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

PubMed

McCain, Christy; Szewczyk, Tim; Bracy Knight, Kevin

2016-06-01

The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A group filter algorithm for sea mine detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, J. Tory; An, Myoung; Tolimieri, Richard

2005-06-01

Automatic detection of sea mines in coastal regions is a difficult task due to the highly variable sea bottom conditions present in the underwater environment. Detection systems must be able to discriminate objects which vary in size, shape, and orientation from naturally occurring and man-made clutter. Additionally, these automated systems must be computationally efficient to be incorporated into unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) sensor systems characterized by high sensor data rates and limited processing abilities. Using noncommutative group harmonic analysis, a fast, robust sea mine detection system is created. A family of unitary image transforms associated to noncommutative groups is generated and applied to side scan sonar image files supplied by Naval Surface Warfare Center Panama City (NSWC PC). These transforms project key image features, geometrically defined structures with orientations, and localized spectral information into distinct orthogonal components or feature subspaces of the image. The performance of the detection system is compared against the performance of an independent detection system in terms of probability of detection (Pd) and probability of false alarm (Pfa).

Diagnostic accuracy of the MMSE in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease in ethnically diverse highly educated individuals: an analysis of the NACC database.

PubMed

Spering, Cynthia C; Hobson, Valerie; Lucas, John A; Menon, Chloe V; Hall, James R; O'Bryant, Sid E

2012-08-01

To validate and extend the findings of a raised cut score of O'Bryant and colleagues (O'Bryant SE, Humphreys JD, Smith GE, et al. Detecting dementia with the mini-mental state examination in highly educated individuals. Arch Neurol. 2008;65(7):963-967.) for the Mini-Mental State Examination in detecting cognitive dysfunction in a bilingual sample of highly educated ethnically diverse individuals. Archival data were reviewed from participants enrolled in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center minimum data set. Data on 7,093 individuals with 16 or more years of education were analyzed, including 2,337 cases with probable and possible Alzheimer's disease, 1,418 mild cognitive impairment patients, and 3,088 nondemented controls. Ethnic composition was characterized as follows: 6,296 Caucasians, 581 African Americans, 4 American Indians or Alaska natives, 2 native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders, 149 Asians, 43 "Other," and 18 of unknown origin. Diagnostic accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio) of Mini-Mental State Examination cut scores in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease were examined. A standard Mini-Mental State Examination cut score of 24 (≤23) yielded a sensitivity of 0.58 and a specificity of 0.98 in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease across ethnicities. A cut score of 27 (≤26) resulted in an improved balance of sensitivity and specificity (0.79 and 0.90, respectively). In the cognitively impaired group (mild cognitive impairment and probable and possible Alzheimer's disease), the standard cut score yielded a sensitivity of 0.38 and a specificity of 1.00 while raising the cut score to 27 resulted in an improved balance of 0.59 and 0.96 of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. These findings cross-validate our previous work and extend them to an ethnically diverse cohort. A higher cut score is needed to maximize diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Mental State Examination in individuals with college degrees.

Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Katherine M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

2015-01-01

Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability. PMID:25775182

Kepler Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities for Data Release 25

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryson, Stephen T.; Morton, Timothy D.

2017-01-01

This document is very similar to KSCI-19092-003, Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities, which describes the previous release of the astrophysical positional probabilities for Data Release 24. The important changes for Data Release 25 are:1. The computation of the astrophysical positional probabilities uses the Data Release 25 processed pixel data for all Kepler Objects of Interest.2. Computed probabilities now have associated uncertainties, whose computation is described in x4.1.3.3. The scene modeling described in x4.1.2 uses background stars detected via ground-based high-resolution imaging, described in x5.1, that are not in the Kepler Input Catalog or UKIRT catalog. These newly detected stars are presented in Appendix B. Otherwise the text describing the algorithms and examples is largely unchanged from KSCI-19092-003.

Sensitive and transportable gadolinium-core plastic scintillator sphere for neutron detection and counting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumazert, Jonathan; Coulon, Romain; Carrel, Frédérick; Corre, Gwenolé; Normand, Stéphane; Méchin, Laurence; Hamel, Matthieu

2016-08-01

Neutron detection forms a critical branch of nuclear-related issues, currently driven by the search for competitive alternative technologies to neutron counters based on the helium-3 isotope. The deployment of plastic scintillators shows a high potential for efficient detectors, safer and more reliable than liquids, more easily scalable and cost-effective than inorganic. In the meantime, natural gadolinium, through its 155 and mostly 157 isotopes, presents an exceptionally high interaction probability with thermal neutrons. This paper introduces a dual system including a metal gadolinium core inserted at the center of a high-scale plastic scintillator sphere. Incident fast neutrons are thermalized by the scintillator shell and then may be captured with a significant probability by gadolinium 155 and 157 nuclei in the core. The deposition of a sufficient fraction of the capture high-energy prompt gamma signature inside the scintillator shell will then allow discrimination from background radiations by energy threshold, and therefore neutron detection. The scaling of the system with the Monte Carlo MCNPX2.7 code was carried out according to a tradeoff between the moderation of incident fast neutrons and the probability of slow neutron capture by a moderate-cost metal gadolinium core. Based on the parameters extracted from simulation, a first laboratory prototype for the assessment of the detection method principle has been synthetized. The robustness and sensitivity of the neutron detection principle are then assessed by counting measurement experiments. Experimental results confirm the potential for a stable, highly sensitive, transportable and cost-efficient neutron detector and orientate future investigation toward promising axes.

Optimizing occupancy surveys by maximizing detection probability: application to amphibian monitoring in the Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Petitot, Maud; Manceau, Nicolas; Geniez, Philippe; Besnard, Aurélien

2014-09-01

Setting up effective conservation strategies requires the precise determination of the targeted species' distribution area and, if possible, its local abundance. However, detection issues make these objectives complex for most vertebrates. The detection probability is usually <1 and is highly dependent on species phenology and other environmental variables. The aim of this study was to define an optimized survey protocol for the Mediterranean amphibian community, that is, to determine the most favorable periods and the most effective sampling techniques for detecting all species present on a site in a minimum number of field sessions and a minimum amount of prospecting effort. We visited 49 ponds located in the Languedoc region of southern France on four occasions between February and June 2011. Amphibians were detected using three methods: nighttime call count, nighttime visual encounter, and daytime netting. The detection nondetection data obtained was then modeled using site-occupancy models. The detection probability of amphibians sharply differed between species, the survey method used and the date of the survey. These three covariates also interacted. Thus, a minimum of three visits spread over the breeding season, using a combination of all three survey methods, is needed to reach a 95% detection level for all species in the Mediterranean region. Synthesis and applications: detection nondetection surveys combined to site occupancy modeling approach are powerful methods that can be used to estimate the detection probability and to determine the prospecting effort necessary to assert that a species is absent from a site.

Can you hear me now? Range-testing a submerged passive acoustic receiver array in a Caribbean coral reef habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selby, Thomas H.; Hart, Kristen M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Smith, Brian J.; Pollock, Clayton J; Hillis-Star, Zandy M; Lundgren, Ian; Oli, Madan K.

2016-01-01

Submerged passive acoustic technology allows researchers to investigate spatial and temporal movement patterns of many marine and freshwater species. The technology uses receivers to detect and record acoustic transmissions emitted from tags attached to an individual. Acoustic signal strength naturally attenuates over distance, but numerous environmental variables also affect the probability a tag is detected. Knowledge of receiver range is crucial for designing acoustic arrays and analyzing telemetry data. Here, we present a method for testing a relatively large-scale receiver array in a dynamic Caribbean coastal environment intended for long-term monitoring of multiple species. The U.S. Geological Survey and several academic institutions in collaboration with resource management at Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), off the coast of St. Croix, recently deployed a 52 passive acoustic receiver array. We targeted 19 array-representative receivers for range-testing by submersing fixed delay interval range-testing tags at various distance intervals in each cardinal direction from a receiver for a minimum of an hour. Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we estimated the probability of detection across the array and assessed the effect of water depth, habitat, wind, temperature, and time of day on the probability of detection. The predicted probability of detection across the entire array at 100 m distance from a receiver was 58.2% (95% CI: 44.0–73.0%) and dropped to 26.0% (95% CI: 11.4–39.3%) 200 m from a receiver indicating a somewhat constrained effective detection range. Detection probability varied across habitat classes with the greatest effective detection range occurring in homogenous sand substrate and the smallest in high rugosity reef. Predicted probability of detection across BIRNM highlights potential gaps in coverage using the current array as well as limitations of passive acoustic technology within a complex coral reef environment.

Using occupancy models to investigate the prevalence of ectoparasitic vectors on hosts: an example with fleas on prairie dogs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eads, David A.; Biggins, Dean E.; Doherty, Paul F.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Long, Dustin H.; Antolin, Michael F.

2013-01-01

Ectoparasites are often difficult to detect in the field. We developed a method that can be used with occupancy models to estimate the prevalence of ectoparasites on hosts, and to investigate factors that influence rates of ectoparasite occupancy while accounting for imperfect detection. We describe the approach using a study of fleas (Siphonaptera) on black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). During each primary occasion (monthly trapping events), we combed a prairie dog three consecutive times to detect fleas (15 s/combing). We used robust design occupancy modeling to evaluate hypotheses for factors that might correlate with the occurrence of fleas on prairie dogs, and factors that might influence the rate at which prairie dogs are colonized by fleas. Our combing method was highly effective; dislodged fleas fell into a tub of water and could not escape, and there was an estimated 99.3% probability of detecting a flea on an occupied host when using three combings. While overall detection was high, the probability of detection was always <1.00 during each primary combing occasion, highlighting the importance of considering imperfect detection. The combing method (removal of fleas) caused a decline in detection during primary occasions, and we accounted for that decline to avoid inflated estimates of occupancy. Regarding prairie dogs, flea occupancy was heightened in old/natural colonies of prairie dogs, and on hosts that were in poor condition. Occupancy was initially low in plots with high densities of prairie dogs, but, as the study progressed, the rate of flea colonization increased in plots with high densities of prairie dogs in particular. Our methodology can be used to improve studies of ectoparasites, especially when the probability of detection is low. Moreover, the method can be modified to investigate the co-occurrence of ectoparasite species, and community level factors such as species richness and interspecific interactions.

MRI Brain Tumor Segmentation and Necrosis Detection Using Adaptive Sobolev Snakes.

PubMed

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-21

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at different points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D diffusion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

MRI brain tumor segmentation and necrosis detection using adaptive Sobolev snakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-01

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at di erent points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D di usion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

On the detection of very high redshift gamma-ray bursts with Swift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvaterra, R.; Campana, S.; Chincarini, G.; Tagliaferri, G.; Covino, S.

2007-09-01

We compute the probability of detecting long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) at z >= 5 with Swift, assuming that GRBs form preferentially in low-metallicity environments. The model fits both the observed Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and Swift GRB differential peak flux distributions well and is consistent with the number of z >= 2.5 detections in the 2-yr Swift data. We find that the probability of observing a burst at z >= 5 becomes larger than 10 per cent for photon fluxes P < 1 ph s-1 cm-2, consistent with the number of confirmed detections. The corresponding fraction of z >= 5 bursts in the Swift catalogue is ~10-30 per cent depending on the adopted metallicity threshold for GRB formation. We propose to use the computed probability as a tool to identify high-redshift GRBs. By jointly considering promptly available information provided by Swift and model results, we can select reliable z >= 5 candidates in a few hours from the BAT detection. We test the procedure against last year Swift data: only three bursts match all our requirements, two being confirmed at z >= 5. Another three possible candidates are picked up by slightly relaxing the adopted criteria. No low-z interloper is found among the six candidates.

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval-censored detection times.

PubMed

Ferreira, Mário; Filipe, Ana Filipa; Bardos, David C; Magalhães, Maria Filomena; Beja, Pedro

2016-08-01

Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy-detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time-to-detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time-to-first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval-censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time-to-detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval-censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P-values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval-censored time-to-detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy-detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.

Influence of gravel mining and other factors on detection probabilities of Coastal Plain fishes in the Mobile River Basin, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayer, C.-A.; Irwin, E.R.

2008-01-01

We used an information-theoretic approach to examine the variation in detection probabilities for 87 Piedmont and Coastal Plain fishes in relation to instream gravel mining in four Alabama streams of the Mobile River drainage. Biotic and abiotic variables were also included in candidate models. Detection probabilities were heterogeneous across species and varied with habitat type, stream, season, and water quality. Instream gravel mining influenced the variation in detection probabilities for 38% of the species collected, probably because it led to habitat loss and increased sedimentation. Higher detection probabilities were apparent at unmined sites than at mined sites for 78% of the species for which gravel mining was shown to influence detection probabilities, indicating potential negative impacts to these species. Physical and chemical attributes also explained the variation in detection probabilities for many species. These results indicate that anthropogenic impacts can affect detection probabilities for fishes, and such variation should be considered when developing monitoring programs or routine sampling protocols. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Identification and assessment of common errors in the admission process of patients in Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center based on "failure modes and effects analysis".

PubMed

Dehghan, Ashraf; Abumasoudi, Rouhollah Sheikh; Ehsanpour, Soheila

2016-01-01

Infertility and errors in the process of its treatment have a negative impact on infertile couples. The present study was aimed to identify and assess the common errors in the reception process by applying the approach of "failure modes and effects analysis" (FMEA). In this descriptive cross-sectional study, the admission process of fertility and infertility center of Isfahan was selected for evaluation of its errors based on the team members' decision. At first, the admission process was charted through observations and interviewing employees, holding multiple panels, and using FMEA worksheet, which has been used in many researches all over the world and also in Iran. Its validity was evaluated through content and face validity, and its reliability was evaluated through reviewing and confirmation of the obtained information by the FMEA team, and eventually possible errors, causes, and three indicators of severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection were determined and corrective actions were proposed. Data analysis was determined by the number of risk priority (RPN) which is calculated by multiplying the severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection. Twenty-five errors with RPN ≥ 125 was detected through the admission process, in which six cases of error had high priority in terms of severity and occurrence probability and were identified as high-risk errors. The team-oriented method of FMEA could be useful for assessment of errors and also to reduce the occurrence probability of errors.

Identification and assessment of common errors in the admission process of patients in Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center based on “failure modes and effects analysis”

PubMed Central

Dehghan, Ashraf; Abumasoudi, Rouhollah Sheikh; Ehsanpour, Soheila

2016-01-01

Background: Infertility and errors in the process of its treatment have a negative impact on infertile couples. The present study was aimed to identify and assess the common errors in the reception process by applying the approach of “failure modes and effects analysis” (FMEA). Materials and Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, the admission process of fertility and infertility center of Isfahan was selected for evaluation of its errors based on the team members’ decision. At first, the admission process was charted through observations and interviewing employees, holding multiple panels, and using FMEA worksheet, which has been used in many researches all over the world and also in Iran. Its validity was evaluated through content and face validity, and its reliability was evaluated through reviewing and confirmation of the obtained information by the FMEA team, and eventually possible errors, causes, and three indicators of severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection were determined and corrective actions were proposed. Data analysis was determined by the number of risk priority (RPN) which is calculated by multiplying the severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection. Results: Twenty-five errors with RPN ≥ 125 was detected through the admission process, in which six cases of error had high priority in terms of severity and occurrence probability and were identified as high-risk errors. Conclusions: The team-oriented method of FMEA could be useful for assessment of errors and also to reduce the occurrence probability of errors. PMID:28194208

Spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Qing; Royle, Andy; Boomer, G. Scott

2017-01-01

Knowledge of demographic parameters such as survival, reproduction, emigration, and immigration is essential to understand metapopulation dynamics. Traditionally the estimation of these demographic parameters requires intensive data from marked animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models makes it possible to estimate demographic parameters from count data of unmarked animals, but the original dynamic N-mixture model does not distinguish emigration and immigration from survival and reproduction, limiting its ability to explain important metapopulation processes such as movement among local populations. In this study we developed a spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model that estimates survival, reproduction, emigration, local population size, and detection probability from count data under the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches. Simulation studies showed that the inference of our model depends on detection probability, local population size, and the implementation of robust sampling design. Our model provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when detection probability is high, regardless of local population size or the type of sampling design. When detection probability is low, however, our model only provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when local population size is moderate to high and robust sampling design is used. A sensitivity analysis showed that our model is robust against the violation of the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches, suggesting wide applications of this model. Our model can be used to improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics based on count data that are relatively easy to collect in many systems.

Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reppucci, J.; Gardner, B.; Lucherini, M.

2011-01-01

The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October-December 2006 and April-June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture-recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km 2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74-0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reppucci, Juan; Gardner, Beth; Lucherini, Mauro

2011-01-01

The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October–December 2006 and April–June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture–recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74–0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species.

Diagnostic Accuracy of the MMSE in Detecting Probable and Possible Alzheimer's Disease in Ethnically Diverse Highly Educated Individuals: An Analysis of the NACC Database

PubMed Central

Spering, Cynthia C.; Hobson, Valerie; Lucas, John A.; Menon, Chloe V.; Hall, James R.

2012-01-01

Background. To validate and extend the findings of a raised cut score of O’Bryant and colleagues (O’Bryant SE, Humphreys JD, Smith GE, et al. Detecting dementia with the mini-mental state examination in highly educated individuals. Arch Neurol. 2008;65(7):963–967.) for the Mini-Mental State Examination in detecting cognitive dysfunction in a bilingual sample of highly educated ethnically diverse individuals. Methods. Archival data were reviewed from participants enrolled in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center minimum data set. Data on 7,093 individuals with 16 or more years of education were analyzed, including 2,337 cases with probable and possible Alzheimer's disease, 1,418 mild cognitive impairment patients, and 3,088 nondemented controls. Ethnic composition was characterized as follows: 6,296 Caucasians, 581 African Americans, 4 American Indians or Alaska natives, 2 native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders, 149 Asians, 43 “Other,” and 18 of unknown origin. Results. Diagnostic accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio) of Mini-Mental State Examination cut scores in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease were examined. A standard Mini-Mental State Examination cut score of 24 (≤23) yielded a sensitivity of 0.58 and a specificity of 0.98 in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease across ethnicities. A cut score of 27 (≤26) resulted in an improved balance of sensitivity and specificity (0.79 and 0.90, respectively). In the cognitively impaired group (mild cognitive impairment and probable and possible Alzheimer's disease), the standard cut score yielded a sensitivity of 0.38 and a specificity of 1.00 while raising the cut score to 27 resulted in an improved balance of 0.59 and 0.96 of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Conclusions. These findings cross-validate our previous work and extend them to an ethnically diverse cohort. A higher cut score is needed to maximize diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Mental State Examination in individuals with college degrees. PMID:22396476

Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi).

PubMed

Mali, Ivana; Duarte, Adam; Forstner, Michael R J

2018-01-01

Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter ( Pseudemys gorzugi ) while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species. Although baited hoop-net traps seem to be an effective sampling design, it is important to note that this method required a relatively high trap effort to reliably estimate abundance. This information will be useful when developing a larger-scale, long-term monitoring program for this species of concern.

Method- and species-specific detection probabilities of fish occupancy in Arctic lakes: Implications for design and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haynes, Trevor B.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Whitman, Matthew; Schmutz, Joel A.

2013-01-01

Studies examining species occurrence often fail to account for false absences in field sampling. We investigate detection probabilities of five gear types for six fish species in a sample of lakes on the North Slope, Alaska. We used an occupancy modeling approach to provide estimates of detection probabilities for each method. Variation in gear- and species-specific detection probability was considerable. For example, detection probabilities for the fyke net ranged from 0.82 (SE = 0.05) for least cisco (Coregonus sardinella) to 0.04 (SE = 0.01) for slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). Detection probabilities were also affected by site-specific variables such as depth of the lake, year, day of sampling, and lake connection to a stream. With the exception of the dip net and shore minnow traps, each gear type provided the highest detection probability of at least one species. Results suggest that a multimethod approach may be most effective when attempting to sample the entire fish community of Arctic lakes. Detection probability estimates will be useful for designing optimal fish sampling and monitoring protocols in Arctic lakes.

Improving inferences in population studies of rare species that are detected imperfectly

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Sutton, N.; Kawanishi, K.; Bailey, L.L.

2005-01-01

For the vast majority of cases, it is highly unlikely that all the individuals of a population will be encountered during a study. Furthermore, it is unlikely that a constant fraction of the population is encountered over times, locations, or species to be compared. Hence, simple counts usually will not be good indices of population size. We recommend that detection probabilities (the probability of including an individual in a count) be estimated and incorporated into inference procedures. However, most techniques for estimating detection probability require moderate sample sizes, which may not be achievable when studying rare species. In order to improve the reliability of inferences from studies of rare species, we suggest two general approaches that researchers may wish to consider that incorporate the concept of imperfect detectability: (1) borrowing information about detectability or the other quantities of interest from other times, places, or species; and (2) using state variables other than abundance (e.g., species richness and occupancy). We illustrate these suggestions with examples and discuss the relative benefits and drawbacks of each approach.

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

Does clinical pretest probability influence image quality and diagnostic accuracy in dual-source coronary CT angiography?

PubMed

Thomas, Christoph; Brodoefel, Harald; Tsiflikas, Ilias; Bruckner, Friederike; Reimann, Anja; Ketelsen, Dominik; Drosch, Tanja; Claussen, Claus D; Kopp, Andreas; Heuschmid, Martin; Burgstahler, Christof

2010-02-01

To prospectively evaluate the influence of the clinical pretest probability assessed by the Morise score onto image quality and diagnostic accuracy in coronary dual-source computed tomography angiography (DSCTA). In 61 patients, DSCTA and invasive coronary angiography were performed. Subjective image quality and accuracy for stenosis detection (>50%) of DSCTA with invasive coronary angiography as gold standard were evaluated. The influence of pretest probability onto image quality and accuracy was assessed by logistic regression and chi-square testing. Correlations of image quality and accuracy with the Morise score were determined using linear regression. Thirty-eight patients were categorized into the high, 21 into the intermediate, and 2 into the low probability group. Accuracies for the detection of significant stenoses were 0.94, 0.97, and 1.00, respectively. Logistic regressions and chi-square tests showed statistically significant correlations between Morise score and image quality (P < .0001 and P < .001) and accuracy (P = .0049 and P = .027). Linear regression revealed a cutoff Morise score for a good image quality of 16 and a cutoff for a barely diagnostic image quality beyond the upper Morise scale. Pretest probability is a weak predictor of image quality and diagnostic accuracy in coronary DSCTA. A sufficient image quality for diagnostic images can be reached with all pretest probabilities. Therefore, coronary DSCTA might be suitable also for patients with a high pretest probability. Copyright 2010 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A framework for decision points to trigger adaptive management actions in long-term incidental take permits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalthorp, Daniel; Huso, Manuela

2015-12-02

Confirming the accuracy of predicted take and providing evidence that permitted take levels have not been exceeded can be challenging because carcasses may be detected with probability much less than 1, and often no carcasses are observed. When detection probability is high, finding 0 carcasses can be interpreted as evidence that none (or few) were actually killed. As the probability of observing an individual decreases, the likelihood of missing carcasses increases, making it unclear how to interpret having observed 0 (or few) carcasses. In a practical sense, the consequences of incorrect inference can be significant: overestimating take could result in costly and unjustified mitigation, whereas underestimating could result in unanticipated declines in species populations already at risk.

Space debris detection in optical image sequences.

PubMed

Xi, Jiangbo; Wen, Desheng; Ersoy, Okan K; Yi, Hongwei; Yao, Dalei; Song, Zongxi; Xi, Shaobo

2016-10-01

We present a high-accuracy, low false-alarm rate, and low computational-cost methodology for removing stars and noise and detecting space debris with low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in optical image sequences. First, time-index filtering and bright star intensity enhancement are implemented to remove stars and noise effectively. Then, a multistage quasi-hypothesis-testing method is proposed to detect the pieces of space debris with continuous and discontinuous trajectories. For this purpose, a time-index image is defined and generated. Experimental results show that the proposed method can detect space debris effectively without any false alarms. When the SNR is higher than or equal to 1.5, the detection probability can reach 100%, and when the SNR is as low as 1.3, 1.2, and 1, it can still achieve 99%, 97%, and 85% detection probabilities, respectively. Additionally, two large sets of image sequences are tested to show that the proposed method performs stably and effectively.

Male greater sage-grouse detectability on leks

Treesearch

Aleshia L. Fremgen; Christopher P. Hansen; Mark A. Rumble; R. Scott Gamo; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

It is unlikely all male sage-grouse are detected during lek counts, which could complicate the use of lek counts as an index to population abundance. Understanding factors that influence detection probabilities will allow managers to more accurately estimate the number of males present on leks. We fitted 410 males with global positioning system and very high...

Evaluation and comparison of statistical methods for early temporal detection of outbreaks: A simulation-based study

PubMed Central

Le Strat, Yann

2017-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate a panel of statistical algorithms for temporal outbreak detection. Based on a large dataset of simulated weekly surveillance time series, we performed a systematic assessment of 21 statistical algorithms, 19 implemented in the R package surveillance and two other methods. We estimated false positive rate (FPR), probability of detection (POD), probability of detection during the first week, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values and F1-measure for each detection method. Then, to identify the factors associated with these performance measures, we ran multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for the characteristics of the simulated time series (trend, seasonality, dispersion, outbreak sizes, etc.). The FPR ranged from 0.7% to 59.9% and the POD from 43.3% to 88.7%. Some methods had a very high specificity, up to 99.4%, but a low sensitivity. Methods with a high sensitivity (up to 79.5%) had a low specificity. All methods had a high negative predictive value, over 94%, while positive predictive values ranged from 6.5% to 68.4%. Multivariate Poisson regression models showed that performance measures were strongly influenced by the characteristics of time series. Past or current outbreak size and duration strongly influenced detection performances. PMID:28715489

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

Assessment of different surveillance systems for avian influenza in commercial poultry in Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain).

PubMed

Alba, A; Casal, J; Napp, S; Martin, P A J

2010-11-01

Compulsory surveillance programmes for avian influenza (AI) have been implemented in domestic poultry and wild birds in all the European Member States since 2005. The implementation of these programmes is complex and requires a close evaluation. A good indicator to assess their efficacy is the sensitivity (Se) of the surveillance system. In this study, the sensitivities for different sampling designs proposed by the Spanish authorities for the commercial poultry population of Catalonia were assessed, using the scenario tree model methodology. These samplings were stratified throughout the territory of Spain and took into account the species, the types of production and their specific risks. The probabilities of detecting infection at different prevalences at both individual and holding level were estimated. Furthermore, those subpopulations that contributed more to the Se of the system were identified. The model estimated that all the designs met the requirements of the European Commission. The probability of detecting AI circulating in Catalonian poultry did not change significantly when the within-holding design prevalence varied from 30% to 10%. In contrast, when the among-holding design prevalence decreased from 5% to 1%, the probability of detecting AI was drastically reduced. The sampling of duck and goose holdings, and to a lesser extent the sampling of turkey and game bird holdings, increased the Se substantially. The Se of passive surveillance in chickens for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) were also assessed. The probability of the infected birds manifesting apparent clinical signs and the awareness of veterinarians and farmers had great influence on the probability of detecting AI. In order to increase the probability of an early detection of HPAI in chicken, the probability of performing AI specific tests when AI is suspected would need to be increased. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using areas of known occupancy to identify sources of variation in detection probability of raptors: taking time lowers replication effort for surveys.

PubMed

Murn, Campbell; Holloway, Graham J

2016-10-01

Species occurring at low density can be difficult to detect and if not properly accounted for, imperfect detection will lead to inaccurate estimates of occupancy. Understanding sources of variation in detection probability and how they can be managed is a key part of monitoring. We used sightings data of a low-density and elusive raptor (white-headed vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis ) in areas of known occupancy (breeding territories) in a likelihood-based modelling approach to calculate detection probability and the factors affecting it. Because occupancy was known a priori to be 100%, we fixed the model occupancy parameter to 1.0 and focused on identifying sources of variation in detection probability. Using detection histories from 359 territory visits, we assessed nine covariates in 29 candidate models. The model with the highest support indicated that observer speed during a survey, combined with temporal covariates such as time of year and length of time within a territory, had the highest influence on the detection probability. Averaged detection probability was 0.207 (s.e. 0.033) and based on this the mean number of visits required to determine within 95% confidence that white-headed vultures are absent from a breeding area is 13 (95% CI: 9-20). Topographical and habitat covariates contributed little to the best models and had little effect on detection probability. We highlight that low detection probabilities of some species means that emphasizing habitat covariates could lead to spurious results in occupancy models that do not also incorporate temporal components. While variation in detection probability is complex and influenced by effects at both temporal and spatial scales, temporal covariates can and should be controlled as part of robust survey methods. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for detection probability in occupancy studies, particularly during presence/absence studies for species such as raptors that are widespread and occur at low densities.

Comparison of electrofishing techniques to detect larval lampreys in wadeable streams in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Jason B.; Chelgren, Nathan D.; Heck, Michael P.; Clark, Steven M.

2013-01-01

We evaluated the probability of detecting larval lampreys using different methods of backpack electrofishing in wadeable streams in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our primary objective was to compare capture of lampreys using electrofishing with standard settings for salmon and trout to settings specifically adapted for capture of lampreys. Field work consisted of removal sampling by means of backpack electrofishing in 19 sites in streams representing a broad range of conditions in the region. Captures of lampreys at these sites were analyzed with a modified removal-sampling model and Bayesian estimation to measure the relative odds of capture using the lamprey-specific settings compared with the standard salmonid settings. We found that the odds of capture were 2.66 (95% credible interval, 0.87–78.18) times greater for the lamprey-specific settings relative to standard salmonid settings. When estimates of capture probability were applied to estimating the probabilities of detection, we found high (>0.80) detectability when the actual number of lampreys in a site was greater than 10 individuals and effort was at least two passes of electrofishing, regardless of the settings used. Further work is needed to evaluate key assumptions in our approach, including the evaluation of individual-specific capture probabilities and population closure. For now our results suggest comparable results are possible for detection of lampreys by using backpack electrofishing with salmonid- or lamprey-specific settings.

Using spatially explicit surveillance models to provide confidence in the eradication of an invasive ant

PubMed Central

Ward, Darren F.; Anderson, Dean P.; Barron, Mandy C.

2016-01-01

Effective detection plays an important role in the surveillance and management of invasive species. Invasive ants are very difficult to eradicate and are prone to imperfect detection because of their small size and cryptic nature. Here we demonstrate the use of spatially explicit surveillance models to estimate the probability that Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) have been eradicated from an offshore island site, given their absence across four surveys and three surveillance methods, conducted since ant control was applied. The probability of eradication increased sharply as each survey was conducted. Using all surveys and surveillance methods combined, the overall median probability of eradication of Argentine ants was 0.96. There was a high level of confidence in this result, with a high Credible Interval Value of 0.87. Our results demonstrate the value of spatially explicit surveillance models for the likelihood of eradication of Argentine ants. We argue that such models are vital to give confidence in eradication programs, especially from highly valued conservation areas such as offshore islands. PMID:27721491

Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

2015-01-01

We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

Changes in tropical precipitation cluster size distributions under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.; Quinn, K. M.

2016-12-01

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a tropical storm or other precipitation feature (contiguous clusters of precipitation exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance. To establish baseline behavior in current climate, the probability distribution of cluster sizes from multiple satellite retrievals and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis is compared to those from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM-360 and -180). With the caveat that a minimum rain rate threshold is important in the models (which tend to overproduce low rain rates), the models agree well with observations in leading properties. In particular, scale-free power law ranges in which the probability drops slowly with increasing cluster size are well modeled, followed by a rapid drop in probability of the largest clusters above a cutoff scale. Under the RCP 8.5 global warming scenario, the models indicate substantial increases in probability (up to an order of magnitude) of the largest clusters by the end of century. For models with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial spread on when these probability increases for the largest precipitation clusters should be detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only in the second half of the century. Examination of NCEP reanalysis and SSMI/SSMIS series of satellite retrievals from 1979 to present does not yield reliable evidence of trends at this time. The results suggest improvements in inter-satellite calibration of the SSMI/SSMIS retrievals could aid future detection.

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data.

PubMed

Roberts, D R; Paris, J F; Manguin, S; Harbach, R E; Woodruff, R; Rejmankova, E; Polanco, J; Wullschleger, B; Legters, L J

1996-03-01

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, D. R.; Paris, J. F.; Manguin, S.; Harbach, R. E.; Woodruff, R.; Rejmankova, E.; Polanco, J.; Wullschleger, B.; Legters, L. J.

1996-01-01

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Realized detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) using modified floating aquatic funnel traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Skalos, Shannon M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Wylie, Glenn D.

2015-01-01

Detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) are very low, and successfully evaluating the effects of variables or experimental treatments on giant gartersnake populations will require greater detection and capture probabilities than those that had been achieved with standard trap designs. Previous research identified important trap modifications that can increase the probability of snakes entering traps and help prevent the escape of captured snakes. The purpose of this study was to quantify detection and capture probabilities obtained using the most successful modification to commercially available traps to date (2015), and examine the ability of realized detection and capture probabilities to achieve benchmark levels of precision in occupancy and capture-mark-recapture studies.

Automated Detection of a Crossing Contact Based on Its Doppler Shift

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

contacts in passive sonar systems. A common approach is the application of high- gain processing followed by successive classification criteria. Most...contacts in passive sonar systems. A common approach is the application of high-gain processing followed by successive classification criteria...RESEARCH MOTIVATION The trade-off between the false alarm and detection probability is fundamental in radar and sonar . (Chevalier, 2002) A common

High-sensitivity, high-selectivity detection of chemical warfare agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pushkarsky, Michael B.; Webber, Michael E.; Macdonald, Tyson; Patel, C. Kumar N.

2006-01-01

We report high-sensitivity detection of chemical warfare agents (nerve gases) with very low probability of false positives (PFP). We demonstrate a detection threshold of 1.2ppb (7.7μg/m3 equivalent of Sarin) with a PFP of <1:106 in the presence of many interfering gases present in an urban environment through the detection of diisopropyl methylphosphonate, an accepted relatively harmless surrogate for the nerve agents. For the current measurement time of ˜60s, a PFP of 1:106 corresponds to one false alarm approximately every 23months. The demonstrated performance satisfies most current homeland and military security requirements.

A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

PubMed

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Joint detection and tracking of size-varying infrared targets based on block-wise sparse decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Miao; Lin, Zaiping; Long, Yunli; An, Wei; Zhou, Yiyu

2016-05-01

The high variability of target size makes small target detection in Infrared Search and Track (IRST) a challenging task. A joint detection and tracking method based on block-wise sparse decomposition is proposed to address this problem. For detection, the infrared image is divided into overlapped blocks, and each block is weighted on the local image complexity and target existence probabilities. Target-background decomposition is solved by block-wise inexact augmented Lagrange multipliers. For tracking, label multi-Bernoulli (LMB) tracker tracks multiple targets taking the result of single-frame detection as input, and provides corresponding target existence probabilities for detection. Unlike fixed-size methods, the proposed method can accommodate size-varying targets, due to no special assumption for the size and shape of small targets. Because of exact decomposition, classical target measurements are extended and additional direction information is provided to improve tracking performance. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively suppress background clutters, detect and track size-varying targets in infrared images.

Is eradication of the pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) likely? An evaluation of current contingency plans.

PubMed

Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Schroeder, Martin; Magnusson, Christer; Lindelöw, Ake; Thunes, Karl

2010-09-01

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree-killing exotic pests in East-Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-01-01

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Entanglement-enhanced Neyman-Pearson target detection using quantum illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) provides entanglement-based target detection---in an entanglement-breaking environment---whose performance is significantly better than that of optimum classical-illumination target detection. QI's performance advantage was established in a Bayesian setting with the target presumed equally likely to be absent or present and error probability employed as the performance metric. Radar theory, however, eschews that Bayesian approach, preferring the Neyman-Pearson performance criterion to avoid the difficulties of accurately assigning prior probabilities to target absence and presence and appropriate costs to false-alarm and miss errors. We have recently reported an architecture---based on sum-frequency generation (SFG) and feedforward (FF) processing---for minimum error-probability QI target detection with arbitrary prior probabilities for target absence and presence. In this paper, we use our results for FF-SFG reception to determine the receiver operating characteristic---detection probability versus false-alarm probability---for optimum QI target detection under the Neyman-Pearson criterion.

Knowing where is different from knowing what: Distinct response time profiles and accuracy effects for target location, orientation, and color probability.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-11-01

When a location is cued, targets appearing at that location are detected more quickly. When a target feature is cued, targets bearing that feature are detected more quickly. These attentional cueing effects are only superficially similar. More detailed analyses find distinct temporal and accuracy profiles for the two different types of cues. This pattern parallels work with probability manipulations, where both feature and spatial probability are known to affect detection accuracy and reaction times. However, little has been done by way of comparing these effects. Are probability manipulations on space and features distinct? In a series of five experiments, we systematically varied spatial probability and feature probability along two dimensions (orientation or color). In addition, we decomposed response times into initiation and movement components. Targets appearing at the probable location were reported more quickly and more accurately regardless of whether the report was based on orientation or color. On the other hand, when either color probability or orientation probability was manipulated, response time and accuracy improvements were specific for that probable feature dimension. Decomposition of the response time benefits demonstrated that spatial probability only affected initiation times, whereas manipulations of feature probability affected both initiation and movement times. As detection was made more difficult, the two effects further diverged, with spatial probability disproportionally affecting initiation times and feature probability disproportionately affecting accuracy. In conclusion, all manipulations of probability, whether spatial or featural, affect detection. However, only feature probability affects perceptual precision, and precision effects are specific to the probable attribute.

Incorporating detection probability into northern Great Plains pronghorn population estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacques, Christopher N.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Grovenburg, Troy W.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) abundances commonly are estimated using fixed-wing surveys, but these estimates are likely to be negatively biased because of violations of key assumptions underpinning line-transect methodology. Reducing bias and improving precision of abundance estimates through use of detection probability and mark-resight models may allow for more responsive pronghorn management actions. Given their potential application in population estimation, we evaluated detection probability and mark-resight models for use in estimating pronghorn population abundance. We used logistic regression to quantify probabilities that detecting pronghorn might be influenced by group size, animal activity, percent vegetation, cover type, and topography. We estimated pronghorn population size by study area and year using mixed logit-normal mark-resight (MLNM) models. Pronghorn detection probability increased with group size, animal activity, and percent vegetation; overall detection probability was 0.639 (95% CI = 0.612–0.667) with 396 of 620 pronghorn groups detected. Despite model selection uncertainty, the best detection probability models were 44% (range = 8–79%) and 180% (range = 139–217%) greater than traditional pronghorn population estimates. Similarly, the best MLNM models were 28% (range = 3–58%) and 147% (range = 124–180%) greater than traditional population estimates. Detection probability of pronghorn was not constant but depended on both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. When pronghorn detection probability is a function of animal group size, animal activity, landscape complexity, and percent vegetation, traditional aerial survey techniques will result in biased pronghorn abundance estimates. Standardizing survey conditions, increasing resighting occasions, or accounting for variation in individual heterogeneity in mark-resight models will increase the accuracy and precision of pronghorn population estimates.

Acoustic intrusion detection and positioning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berman, Ohad; Zalevsky, Zeev

2002-08-01

Acoustic sensors are becoming more and more applicable as a military battlefield technology. Those sensors allow a detection and direciton estimation with low false alarm rate and high probability of detection. The recent technological progress related to these fields of reserach, together with an evolution of sophisticated algorithms, allow the successful integration of those sensoe in battlefield technologies. In this paper the performances of an acoustic sensor for a detection of avionic vessels is investigated and analyzed.

Lung nodule detection from CT scans using 3D convolutional neural networks without candidate selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenuwine, Natalia M.; Mahesh, Sunny N.; Furst, Jacob D.; Raicu, Daniela S.

2018-02-01

Early detection of lung nodules from CT scans is key to improving lung cancer treatment, but poses a significant challenge for radiologists due to the high throughput required of them. Computer-Aided Detection (CADe) systems aim to automatically detect these nodules with computer algorithms, thus improving diagnosis. These systems typically use a candidate selection step, which identifies all objects that resemble nodules, followed by a machine learning classifier which separates true nodules from false positives. We create a CADe system that uses a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect nodules in CT scans without a candidate selection step. Using data from the LIDC database, we train a 3D CNN to analyze subvolumes from anywhere within a CT scan and output the probability that each subvolume contains a nodule. Once trained, we apply our CNN to detect nodules from entire scans, by systematically dividing the scan into overlapping subvolumes which we input into the CNN to obtain the corresponding probabilities. By enabling our network to process an entire scan, we expect to streamline the detection process while maintaining its effectiveness. Our results imply that with continued training using an iterative training scheme, the one-step approach has the potential to be highly effective.

Persistence rates and detection probabilities of oiled king eider carcasses on St Paul Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, A.C.; Flint, Paul L.

1997-01-01

Following an oil spill off St Paul Island, Alaska in February 1996, persistence rates and detection probabilities of oiled king eider (Somateria spectabilis) carcasses were estimated using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. Carcass persistence rates varied by day, beach type and sex, while detection probabilities varied by day and beach type. Scavenging, wave action and weather influenced carcass persistence. The patterns of persistence differed on rock and sand beaches and female carcasses had a different persistence function than males. Weather, primarily snow storms, and degree of carcass scavenging, diminished carcass detectability. Detection probabilities on rock beaches were lower and more variable than on sand beaches. The combination of persistence rates and detection probabilities can be used to improve techniques of estimating total mortality.

Recyclable amplification for single-photon entanglement from photon loss and decoherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Lan; Chen, Ling-Quan; Zhong, Wei; Sheng, Yu-Bo

2018-01-01

We put forward a highly efficient recyclable single-photon assisted amplification protocol, which can protect single-photon entanglement (SPE) from photon loss and decoherence. Making use of quantum nondemolition detection gates constructed with the help of cross-Kerr nonlinearity, our protocol has some attractive advantages. First, the parties can recover less-entangled SPE to be maximally entangled SPE, and reduce photon loss simultaneously. Second, if the protocol fails, the parties can repeat the protocol to reuse some discarded items, which can increase the success probability. Third, when the protocol is successful, they can similarly repeat the protocol to further increase the fidelity of the SPE. Thereby, our protocol provides a possible way to obtain high entanglement, high fidelity and high success probability simultaneously. In particular, our protocol shows higher success probability in the practical high photon loss channel. Based on the above features, our amplification protocol has potential for future application in long-distance quantum communication.

Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2006-01-01

Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

A prototype method for diagnosing high ice water content probability using satellite imager data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yost, Christopher R.; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Minnis, Patrick; Nguyen, Louis; Strapp, J. Walter; Palikonda, Rabindra; Khlopenkov, Konstantin; Spangenberg, Douglas; Smith, William L., Jr.; Protat, Alain; Delanoe, Julien

2018-03-01

Recent studies have found that ingestion of high mass concentrations of ice particles in regions of deep convective storms, with radar reflectivity considered safe for aircraft penetration, can adversely impact aircraft engine performance. Previous aviation industry studies have used the term high ice water content (HIWC) to define such conditions. Three airborne field campaigns were conducted in 2014 and 2015 to better understand how HIWC is distributed in deep convection, both as a function of altitude and proximity to convective updraft regions, and to facilitate development of new methods for detecting HIWC conditions, in addition to many other research and regulatory goals. This paper describes a prototype method for detecting HIWC conditions using geostationary (GEO) satellite imager data coupled with in situ total water content (TWC) observations collected during the flight campaigns. Three satellite-derived parameters were determined to be most useful for determining HIWC probability: (1) the horizontal proximity of the aircraft to the nearest overshooting convective updraft or textured anvil cloud, (2) tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, and (3) daytime-only cloud optical depth. Statistical fits between collocated TWC and GEO satellite parameters were used to determine the membership functions for the fuzzy logic derivation of HIWC probability. The products were demonstrated using data from several campaign flights and validated using a subset of the satellite-aircraft collocation database. The daytime HIWC probability was found to agree quite well with TWC time trends and identified extreme TWC events with high probability. Discrimination of HIWC was more challenging at night with IR-only information. The products show the greatest capability for discriminating TWC ≥ 0.5 g m-3. Product validation remains challenging due to vertical TWC uncertainties and the typically coarse spatio-temporal resolution of the GEO data.

Decreasing Plagiarism: What Works and What Doesn't

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houtman, Anne M.; Walker, Sean

2010-01-01

The authors tested the predictions of a game theory model of plagiarism, using a test population of student papers submitted to an online plagiarism detection program, over five semesters in a non-majors biology course with multiple sections and high enrollment. Consistent with the model, as the probability of detection and the penalty if caught…

An integrated framework for detecting suspicious behaviors in video surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Thi Thi; Tin, Pyke; Hama, Hiromitsu; Toriu, Takashi

2014-03-01

In this paper, we propose an integrated framework for detecting suspicious behaviors in video surveillance systems which are established in public places such as railway stations, airports, shopping malls and etc. Especially, people loitering in suspicion, unattended objects left behind and exchanging suspicious objects between persons are common security concerns in airports and other transit scenarios. These involve understanding scene/event, analyzing human movements, recognizing controllable objects, and observing the effect of the human movement on those objects. In the proposed framework, multiple background modeling technique, high level motion feature extraction method and embedded Markov chain models are integrated for detecting suspicious behaviors in real time video surveillance systems. Specifically, the proposed framework employs probability based multiple backgrounds modeling technique to detect moving objects. Then the velocity and distance measures are computed as the high level motion features of the interests. By using an integration of the computed features and the first passage time probabilities of the embedded Markov chain, the suspicious behaviors in video surveillance are analyzed for detecting loitering persons, objects left behind and human interactions such as fighting. The proposed framework has been tested by using standard public datasets and our own video surveillance scenarios.

Status assessment of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia and other large mammals in the Kyrgyz Alay, using community knowledge corrected for imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taubmann, Julia; Sharma, Koustubh; Uulu, Kubanychbek Zhumabai; Hines, James; Mishra, Charudutt

2015-01-01

The Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in the Central Asian Mountains, which cover c. 2 million km2. Little is known about its status in the Kyrgyz Alay Mountains, a relatively narrow stretch of habitat connecting the southern and northern global ranges of the species. In 2010 we gathered information on current and past (1990, the last year of the Soviet Union) distributions of snow leopards and five sympatric large mammals across 14,000 km2 of the Kyrgyz Alay. We interviewed 95 key informants from local communities. Across 49 400-km2 grid cells we obtained 1,606 and 962 records of species occurrence (site use) in 1990 and 2010, respectively. The data were analysed using the multi-season site occupancy framework to incorporate uncertainty in detection across interviewees and time periods. High probability of use by snow leopards in the past was recorded in > 70% of the Kyrgyz Alay. Between the two sampling periods 39% of sites showed a high probability of local extinction of snow leopard. We also recorded high probability of local extinction of brown bear Ursus arctos (84% of sites) and Marco Polo sheep Ovis ammon polii (47% of sites), mainly in regions used intensively by people. Data indicated a high probability of local colonization by lynx Lynx lynx in 41% of the sites. Although wildlife has declined in areas of central and eastern Alay, regions in the north-west, and the northern and southern fringes appear to retain high conservation value.

Heterogeneous detection probabilities for imperiled Missouri River fishes: implications for large-river monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schloesser, J.T.; Paukert, Craig P.; Doyle, W.J.; Hill, Tracy D.; Steffensen, K.D.; Travnichek, Vincent H.

2012-01-01

Occupancy modeling was used to determine (1) if detection probabilities (p) for 7 regionally imperiled Missouri River fishes (Scaphirhynchus albus, Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, Cycleptus elongatus, Sander canadensis, Macrhybopsis aestivalis, Macrhybopsis gelida, and Macrhybopsis meeki) differed among gear types (i.e. stationary gill nets, drifted trammel nets, and otter trawls), and (2) how detection probabilities were affected by habitat (i.e. pool, bar, and open water), longitudinal position (five 189 to 367 rkm long segments), sampling year (2003 to 2006), and season (July 1 to October 30 and October 31 to June 30). Adult, large-bodied fishes were best detected with gill nets (p: 0.02–0.74), but most juvenile large-bodied and all small-bodied species were best detected with otter trawls (p: 0.02–0.58). Trammel nets may be a redundant sampling gear for imperiled fishes in the lower Missouri River because most species had greater detection probabilities with gill nets or otter trawls. Detection probabilities varied with river segment for S. platorynchus, C. elongatus, and all small-bodied fishes, suggesting that changes in habitat influenced gear efficiency or abundance changes among river segments. Detection probabilities varied by habitat for adult S. albus and S. canadensis, year for juvenile S. albus, C. elongatus, and S. canadensis, and season for adult S. albus. Concentrating sampling effort on gears with the greatest detection probabilities may increase species detections to better monitor a population's response to environmental change and the effects of management actions on large-river fishes.

A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota

PubMed Central

Kanankege, Kaushi S. T.; Alkhamis, Moh A.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.; Perez, Andres M.

2018-01-01

Zebra mussels (ZMs) (Dreissena polymorpha) and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM) (Myriophyllum spicatum) are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78). The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76). Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45%) or EWM (12.43%) invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67%) and 304/18,411 (1.65%) are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions. PMID:29354638

Search times and probability of detection in time-limited search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, David; Devitt, Nicole; Maurer, Tana

2005-05-01

When modeling the search and target acquisition process, probability of detection as a function of time is important to war games and physical entity simulations. Recent US Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision and Electronics Sensor Directorate modeling of search and detection has focused on time-limited search. Developing the relationship between detection probability and time of search as a differential equation is explored. One of the parameters in the current formula for probability of detection in time-limited search corresponds to the mean time to detect in time-unlimited search. However, the mean time to detect in time-limited search is shorter than the mean time to detect in time-unlimited search and the relationship between them is a mathematical relationship between these two mean times. This simple relationship is derived.

High lifetime probability of screen-detected cervical abnormalities.

PubMed

Pankakoski, Maiju; Heinävaara, Sirpa; Sarkeala, Tytti; Anttila, Ahti

2017-12-01

Objective Regular screening and follow-up is an important key to cervical cancer prevention; however, screening inevitably detects mild or borderline abnormalities that would never progress to a more severe stage. We analysed the cumulative probability and recurrence of cervical abnormalities in the Finnish organized screening programme during a 22-year follow-up. Methods Screening histories were collected for 364,487 women born between 1950 and 1965. Data consisted of 1 207,017 routine screens and 88,143 follow-up screens between 1991 and 2012. Probabilities of cervical abnormalities by age were estimated using logistic regression and generalized estimating equations methodology. Results The probability of experiencing any abnormality at least once at ages 30-64 was 34.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33.3-34.6%) . Probability was 5.4% (95% CI: 5.0-5.8%) for results warranting referral and 2.2% (95% CI: 2.0-2.4%) for results with histologically confirmed findings. Previous occurrences were associated with an increased risk of detecting new ones, specifically in older women. Conclusion A considerable proportion of women experience at least one abnormal screening result during their lifetime, and yet very few eventually develop an actual precancerous lesion. Re-evaluation of diagnostic criteria concerning mild abnormalities might improve the balance of harms and benefits of screening. Special monitoring of women with recurrent abnormalities especially at older ages may also be needed.

Red-shouldered hawk occupancy surveys in central Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henneman, C.; McLeod, M.A.; Andersen, D.E.

2007-01-01

Forest-dwelling raptors are often difficult to detect because many species occur at low density or are secretive. Broadcasting conspecific vocalizations can increase the probability of detecting forest-dwelling raptors and has been shown to be an effective method for locating raptors and assessing their relative abundance. Recent advances in statistical techniques based on presence-absence data use probabilistic arguments to derive probability of detection when it is <1 and to provide a model and likelihood-based method for estimating proportion of sites occupied. We used these maximum-likelihood models with data from red-shouldered hawk (Buteo lineatus) call-broadcast surveys conducted in central Minnesota, USA, in 1994-1995 and 2004-2005. Our objectives were to obtain estimates of occupancy and detection probability 1) over multiple sampling seasons (yr), 2) incorporating within-season time-specific detection probabilities, 3) with call type and breeding stage included as covariates in models of probability of detection, and 4) with different sampling strategies. We visited individual survey locations 2-9 times per year, and estimates of both probability of detection (range = 0.28-0.54) and site occupancy (range = 0.81-0.97) varied among years. Detection probability was affected by inclusion of a within-season time-specific covariate, call type, and breeding stage. In 2004 and 2005 we used survey results to assess the effect that number of sample locations, double sampling, and discontinued sampling had on parameter estimates. We found that estimates of probability of detection and proportion of sites occupied were similar across different sampling strategies, and we suggest ways to reduce sampling effort in a monitoring program.

Prediction Metrics for Chemical Detection in Long-Wave Infrared Hyperspectral Imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chilton, Marie C.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Daly, Don S.

2009-01-29

A natural or anthropogenic process often generates a signature gas plume whose chemical constituents may be identified using hyperspectral imagery. A hyperspectral image is a pixel-indexed set of spectra where each spectrum reflects the chemical constituents of the plume, the atmosphere, the bounding background surface, and instrument noise. This study explored the relationship between gas absorbance and background emissivity across the long-wave infrared (LWIR) spectrum and how they affect relative gas detection sensitivity. The physics-based model for the observed radiance shows that high gas absorbance coupled with low background emissivity at a single wavenumber results in a stronger recorded radiance.more » Two sensitivity measures were developed to predict relative probability of detection using chemical absorbance and background emissivity: one focused on a single wavenumber while another accounted for the entire spectrum. The predictive abilities of these measures were compared to synthetic image analysis. This study simulated images with 499 distinct gases at each of 6 concentrations over 6 different background surfaces with the atmosphere and level of instrument noise held constant. The Whitened Matched Filter was used to define gas detection from an image spectrum. The estimate of a chemical’s probability of detection at a given concentration over a specific background was the proportion of detections in 500 trials. Of the 499 chemicals used in the images, 276 had estimated probabilities of detection below 0.2 across all backgrounds and concentrations; these chemicals were removed from the study. For 92.8 percent of the remaining chemicals, the single channel measure correctly predicted the background over which the chemical had the largest relative probability of detection. Further, the measure which accounted for information across all wavenumbers predicted the background over which the chemical had the largest relative probability of detection for 93.3 percent of the chemicals. These results suggest that the wavenumber with largest gas absorbance has the most influence over gas detection for this data. By furthering the in-silico experimentation with higher concentrations of gases not detectable in this experiment or by standardizing the gas absorbance spectra to unit vectors, these conclusions may be confirmed and generalized to more gases. This will help simplify image acquisition planning and the identification of unknowns in field collected images.« less

PSE-HMM: genome-wide CNV detection from NGS data using an HMM with Position-Specific Emission probabilities.

PubMed

Malekpour, Seyed Amir; Pezeshk, Hamid; Sadeghi, Mehdi

2016-11-03

Copy Number Variation (CNV) is envisaged to be a major source of large structural variations in the human genome. In recent years, many studies apply Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) data for the CNV detection. However, still there is a necessity to invent more accurate computational tools. In this study, mate pair NGS data are used for the CNV detection in a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The proposed HMM has position specific emission probabilities, i.e. a Gaussian mixture distribution. Each component in the Gaussian mixture distribution captures a different type of aberration that is observed in the mate pairs, after being mapped to the reference genome. These aberrations may include any increase (decrease) in the insertion size or change in the direction of mate pairs that are mapped to the reference genome. This HMM with Position-Specific Emission probabilities (PSE-HMM) is utilized for the genome-wide detection of deletions and tandem duplications. The performance of PSE-HMM is evaluated on a simulated dataset and also on a real data of a Yoruban HapMap individual, NA18507. PSE-HMM is effective in taking observation dependencies into account and reaches a high accuracy in detecting genome-wide CNVs. MATLAB programs are available at http://bs.ipm.ir/softwares/PSE-HMM/ .

Flag-based detection of weak gas signatures in long-wave infrared hyperspectral image sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrinan, Timothy; Beveridge, J. Ross; Draper, Bruce; Kirby, Michael; Peterson, Chris

2016-05-01

We present a flag manifold based method for detecting chemical plumes in long-wave infrared hyperspectral movies. The method encodes temporal and spatial information related to a hyperspectral pixel into a flag, or nested sequence of linear subspaces. The technique used to create the flags pushes information about the background clutter, ambient conditions, and potential chemical agents into the leading elements of the flags. Exploiting this temporal information allows for a detection algorithm that is sensitive to the presence of weak signals. This method is compared to existing techniques qualitatively on real data and quantitatively on synthetic data to show that the flag-based algorithm consistently performs better on data when the SINRdB is low, and beats the ACE and MF algorithms in probability of detection for low probabilities of false alarm even when the SINRdB is high.

Autonomous acoustic recorders reveal complex patterns in avian detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Sarah J.; Handel, Colleen M.; McNew, Lance B.

2017-01-01

Avian point‐count surveys are typically designed to occur during periods when birds are consistently active and singing, but seasonal and diurnal patterns of detection probability are often not well understood and may vary regionally or between years. We deployed autonomous acoustic recorders to assess how avian availability for detection (i.e., the probability that a bird signals its presence during a recording) varied during the breeding season with time of day, date, and weather‐related variables at multiple subarctic tundra sites in Alaska, USA, 2013–2014. A single observer processed 2,692 10‐minute recordings across 11 site‐years. We used time‐removal methods to assess availability and used generalized additive models to examine patterns of detectability (joint probability of presence, availability, and detection) for 16 common species. Despite lack of distinct dawn or dusk, most species displayed circadian vocalization patterns, with detection rates generally peaking between 0800 hours and 1200 hours but remaining high as late as 2000 hours for some species. Between 2200 hours and 0500 hours, most species’ detection rates dropped to near 0, signaling a distinctive rest period. Detectability dropped sharply for most species in early July. For all species considered, time‐removal analysis indicated nearly 100% likelihood of detection during a 10‐minute recording conducted in June, between 0500 hours and 2000 hours. This indicates that non‐detections during appropriate survey times and dates were attributable to the species’ absence or that silent birds were unlikely to initiate singing during a 10‐minute interval, whereas vocally active birds were singing very frequently. Systematic recordings revealed a gradient of species’ presence at each site, from ubiquitous to incidental. Although the total number of species detected at a site ranged from 16 to 27, we detected only 4 to 15 species on ≥5% of the site's recordings. Recordings provided an unusually detailed and consistent dataset that allowed us to identify, among other things, appropriate survey dates and times for species breeding at northern latitudes. Our results also indicated that more recordings of shorter duration (1–4 min) may be most efficient for detecting passerines.

First Detected Arrival of a Quantum Walker on an Infinite Line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiel, Felix; Barkai, Eli; Kessler, David A.

2018-01-01

The first detection of a quantum particle on a graph is shown to depend sensitively on the distance ξ between the detector and initial location of the particle, and on the sampling time τ . Here, we use the recently introduced quantum renewal equation to investigate the statistics of first detection on an infinite line, using a tight-binding lattice Hamiltonian with nearest-neighbor hops. Universal features of the first detection probability are uncovered and simple limiting cases are analyzed. These include the large ξ limit, the small τ limit, and the power law decay with the attempt number of the detection probability over which quantum oscillations are superimposed. For large ξ the first detection probability assumes a scaling form and when the sampling time is equal to the inverse of the energy band width nonanalytical behaviors arise, accompanied by a transition in the statistics. The maximum total detection probability is found to occur for τ close to this transition point. When the initial location of the particle is far from the detection node we find that the total detection probability attains a finite value that is distance independent.

Sampling techniques for burbot in a western non-wadeable river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Z. B.; Quist, Michael C.; Rhea, D.T.; Senecal, A. C.

2015-01-01

Burbot, Lota lota (L.), populations are declining throughout much of their native distribution. Although numerous aspects of burbot ecology are well understood, less is known about effective sampling techniques for burbot in lotic systems. Occupancy models were used to estimate the probability of detection () for three gears (6.4- and 19-mm bar mesh hoop nets, night electric fishing), within the context of various habitat characteristics. During the summer, night electric fishing had the highest estimated detection probability for both juvenile (, 95% C.I.; 0.35, 0.26–0.46) and adult (0.30, 0.20–0.41) burbot. However, small-mesh hoop nets (6.4-mm bar mesh) had similar detection probabilities to night electric fishing for both juvenile (0.26, 0.17–0.36) and adult (0.27, 0.18–0.39) burbot during the summer. In autumn, a similar overlap between detection probabilities was observed for juvenile and adult burbot. Small-mesh hoop nets had the highest estimated probability of detection for both juvenile and adult burbot (0.46, 0.33–0.59), whereas night electric fishing had a detection probability of 0.39 (0.28–0.52) for juvenile and adult burbot. By using detection probabilities to compare gears, the most effective sampling technique can be identified, leading to increased species detections and more effective management of burbot.

Wavelength band selection method for multispectral target detection.

PubMed

Karlholm, Jörgen; Renhorn, Ingmar

2002-11-10

A framework is proposed for the selection of wavelength bands for multispectral sensors by use of hyperspectral reference data. Using the results from the detection theory we derive a cost function that is minimized by a set of spectral bands optimal in terms of detection performance for discrimination between a class of small rare targets and clutter with known spectral distribution. The method may be used, e.g., in the design of multispectral infrared search and track and electro-optical missile warning sensors, where a low false-alarm rate and a high-detection probability for detection of small targets against a clutter background are of critical importance, but the required high frame rate prevents the use of hyperspectral sensors.

Applicability of a Conservative Margin Approach for Assessing NDE Flaw Detectability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshti, ajay M.

2007-01-01

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) procedures are required to detect flaws in structures with a high percentage detectability and high confidence. Conventional Probability of Detection (POD) methods are statistical in nature and require detection data from a relatively large number of flaw specimens. In many circumstances, due to the high cost and long lead time, it is impractical to build the large set of flaw specimens that is required by the conventional POD methodology. Therefore, in such situations it is desirable to have a flaw detectability estimation approach that allows for a reduced number of flaw specimens but provides a high degree of confidence in establishing the flaw detectability size. This paper presents an alternative approach called the conservative margin approach (CMA). To investigate the applicability of the CMA approach, flaw detectability sizes determined by the CMA and POD approaches have been compared on actual datasets. The results of these comparisons are presented and the applicability of the CMA approach is discussed.

Estimating site occupancy rates for aquatic plants using spatial sub-sampling designs when detection probabilities are less than one

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielson, Ryan M.; Gray, Brian R.; McDonald, Lyman L.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2011-01-01

Estimation of site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are <1 is well established in wildlife science. Data from multiple visits to a sample of sites are used to estimate detection probabilities and the proportion of sites occupied by focal species. In this article we describe how site occupancy methods can be applied to estimate occupancy rates of plants and other sessile organisms. We illustrate this approach and the pitfalls of ignoring incomplete detection using spatial data for 2 aquatic vascular plants collected under the Upper Mississippi River's Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP). Site occupancy models considered include: a naïve model that ignores incomplete detection, a simple site occupancy model assuming a constant occupancy rate and a constant probability of detection across sites, several models that allow site occupancy rates and probabilities of detection to vary with habitat characteristics, and mixture models that allow for unexplained variation in detection probabilities. We used information theoretic methods to rank competing models and bootstrapping to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the final models. Results of our analysis confirm that ignoring incomplete detection can result in biased estimates of occupancy rates. Estimates of site occupancy rates for 2 aquatic plant species were 19–36% higher compared to naive estimates that ignored probabilities of detection <1. Simulations indicate that final models have little bias when 50 or more sites are sampled, and little gains in precision could be expected for sample sizes >300. We recommend applying site occupancy methods for monitoring presence of aquatic species.

Integrating drivers influencing the detection of plant pests carried in the international cut flower trade.

PubMed

Areal, F J; Touza, J; MacLeod, A; Dehnen-Schmutz, K; Perrings, C; Palmieri, M G; Spence, N J

2008-12-01

This paper analyses the cut flower market as an example of an invasion pathway along which species of non-indigenous plant pests can travel to reach new areas. The paper examines the probability of pest detection by assessing information on pest detection and detection effort associated with the import of cut flowers. We test the link between the probability of plant pest arrivals, as a precursor to potential invasion, and volume of traded flowers using count data regression models. The analysis is applied to the UK import of specific genera of cut flowers from Kenya between 1996 and 2004. There is a link between pest detection and the Genus of cut flower imported. Hence, pest detection efforts should focus on identifying and targeting those imported plants with a high risk of carrying pest species. For most of the plants studied, efforts allocated to inspection have a significant influence on the probability of pest detection. However, by better targeting inspection efforts, it is shown that plant inspection effort could be reduced without increasing the risk of pest entry. Similarly, for most of the plants analysed, an increase in volume traded will not necessarily lead to an increase in the number of pests entering the UK. For some species, such as Carthamus and Veronica, the volume of flowers traded has a significant and positive impact on the likelihood of pest detection. We conclude that analysis at the rank of plant Genus is important both to understand the effectiveness of plant pest detection efforts and consequently to manage the risk of introduction of non-indigenous species.

Bayesian microsaccade detection

PubMed Central

Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-01-01

Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483

Artificial Neural Network for Probabilistic Feature Recognition in Liquid Chromatography Coupled to High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry.

PubMed

Woldegebriel, Michael; Derks, Eduard

2017-01-17

In this work, a novel probabilistic untargeted feature detection algorithm for liquid chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The feature detection process is approached as a pattern recognition problem, and thus, ANN was utilized as an efficient feature recognition tool. Unlike most existing feature detection algorithms, with this approach, any suspected chromatographic profile (i.e., shape of a peak) can easily be incorporated by training the network, avoiding the need to perform computationally expensive regression methods with specific mathematical models. In addition, with this method, we have shown that the high-resolution raw data can be fully utilized without applying any arbitrary thresholds or data reduction, therefore improving the sensitivity of the method for compound identification purposes. Furthermore, opposed to existing deterministic (binary) approaches, this method rather estimates the probability of a feature being present/absent at a given point of interest, thus giving chance for all data points to be propagated down the data analysis pipeline, weighed with their probability. The algorithm was tested with data sets generated from spiked samples in forensic and food safety context and has shown promising results by detecting features for all compounds in a computationally reasonable time.

Rejecting probability summation for radial frequency patterns, not so Quick!

PubMed

Baldwin, Alex S; Schmidtmann, Gunnar; Kingdom, Frederick A A; Hess, Robert F

2016-05-01

Radial frequency (RF) patterns are used to assess how the visual system processes shape. They are thought to be detected globally. This is supported by studies that have found summation for RF patterns to be greater than what is possible if the parts were being independently detected and performance only then improved with an increasing number of cycles by probability summation between them. However, the model of probability summation employed in these previous studies was based on High Threshold Theory (HTT), rather than Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We conducted rating scale experiments to investigate the receiver operating characteristics. We find these are of the curved form predicted by SDT, rather than the straight lines predicted by HTT. This means that to test probability summation we must use a model based on SDT. We conducted a set of summation experiments finding that thresholds decrease as the number of modulated cycles increases at approximately the same rate as previously found. As this could be consistent with either additive or probability summation, we performed maximum-likelihood fitting of a set of summation models (Matlab code provided in our Supplementary material) and assessed the fits using cross validation. We find we are not able to distinguish whether the responses to the parts of an RF pattern are combined by additive or probability summation, because the predictions are too similar. We present similar results for summation between separate RF patterns, suggesting that the summation process there may be the same as that within a single RF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2010-01-01

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

Probability of acoustic transmitter detections by receiver lines in Lake Huron: results of multi-year field tests and simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayden, Todd A.; Holbrook, Christopher M.; Binder, Thomas; Dettmers, John M.; Cooke, Steven J.; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Krueger, Charles C.

2016-01-01

BackgroundAdvances in acoustic telemetry technology have led to an improved understanding of the spatial ecology of many freshwater and marine fish species. Understanding the performance of acoustic receivers is necessary to distinguish between tagged fish that may have been present but not detected and from those fish that were absent from the area. In this study, two stationary acoustic transmitters were deployed 250 m apart within each of four acoustic receiver lines each containing at least 10 receivers (i.e., eight acoustic transmitters) located in Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron for nearly 2 years to determine whether the probability of detecting an acoustic transmission varied as a function of time (i.e., season), location, and distance between acoustic transmitter and receiver. Distances between acoustic transmitters and receivers ranged from 200 m to >10 km in each line. The daily observed probability of detecting an acoustic transmission was used in simulation models to estimate the probability of detecting a moving acoustic transmitter on a line of receivers.ResultsThe probability of detecting an acoustic transmitter on a receiver 1000 m away differed by month for different receiver lines in Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay but was similar for paired acoustic transmitters deployed 250 m apart within the same line. Mean probability of detecting an acoustic transmitter at 1000 m calculated over the study period varied among acoustic transmitters 250 m apart within a line and differed among receiver lines in Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. The simulated probability of detecting a moving acoustic transmitter on a receiver line was characterized by short periods of time with decreased detection. Although increased receiver spacing and higher fish movement rates decreased simulated detection probability, the location of the simulated receiver line in Lake Huron had the strongest effect on simulated detection probability.ConclusionsPerformance of receiver lines in Lake Huron varied across a range of spatiotemporal scales and was inconsistent among receiver lines. Our simulations indicated that if 69 kHz acoustic transmitters operating at 158 dB in 10–30 m of freshwater were being used, then receivers should be placed 1000 m apart to ensure that all fish moving at 1 m s−1 or less will be detected 90% of days over a 2-year period. Whereas these results can be used as general guidelines for designing new studies, the irregular variation in acoustic transmitter detection probabilities we observed among receiver line locations in Lake Huron makes designing receiver lines in similar systems challenging and emphasizes the need to conduct post hoc analyses of acoustic transmitter detection probabilities.

Evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (Gila cypha), with implications for demographic parameter estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Kristen Nicole; Kendall, William L.; Winkelman, Dana L.; Persons, William R.

2015-01-01

Our findings reveal evidence for skipped spawning in a potamodromous cyprinid, humpback chub (HBC; Gila cypha  ). Using closed robust design mark-recapture models, we found, on average, spawning HBC transition to the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.45 (95% CRI (i.e. credible interval): 0.10, 0.80) and skipped spawners remain in the skipped spawning state () with a probability of 0.60 (95% CRI: 0.26, 0.83), yielding an average spawning cycle of every 2.12 years, conditional on survival. As a result, migratory skipped spawners are unavailable for detection during annual sampling events. If availability is unaccounted for, survival and detection probability estimates will be biased. Therefore, we estimated annual adult survival probability (S), while accounting for skipped spawning, and found S remained reasonably stable throughout the study period, with an average of 0.75 ((95% CRI: 0.66, 0.82), process varianceσ2 = 0.005), while skipped spawning probability was highly dynamic (σ2 = 0.306). By improving understanding of HBC spawning strategies, conservation decisions can be based on less biased estimates of survival and a more informed population model structure.

Detection of nuclear resonance signals: modification of the receiver operating characteristics using feedback.

PubMed

Blauch, A J; Schiano, J L; Ginsberg, M D

2000-06-01

The performance of a nuclear resonance detection system can be quantified using binary detection theory. Within this framework, signal averaging increases the probability of a correct detection and decreases the probability of a false alarm by reducing the variance of the noise in the average signal. In conjunction with signal averaging, we propose another method based on feedback control concepts that further improves detection performance. By maximizing the nuclear resonance signal amplitude, feedback raises the probability of correct detection. Furthermore, information generated by the feedback algorithm can be used to reduce the probability of false alarm. We discuss the advantages afforded by feedback that cannot be obtained using signal averaging. As an example, we show how this method is applicable to the detection of explosives using nuclear quadrupole resonance. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Occurrence, distribution, and concentration of hydrocarbons in and near the Shell Valley Aquifer, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berkas, Wayne R.

2000-01-01

Water samples from 27 wells completed in and near the Shell Valley aquifer were analyzed for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX), polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), and pentachlorophenol (PCP) using the enzyme-linked immunoassay method. The analyses indicated the presence of PAH, PCB, and PCP in the study area. However, an individual compound at a high concentration or many compounds at low concentrations could cause the detections. Therefore, selected samples were analyzed using the gas chromatography (GC) method, which can detect individual compounds and determine the concentrations of those compounds. Concentrations for all compounds detected using the GC method were less than the minimum reporting levels (MRLs) for each constituent, indicating numerous compounds at low concentrations probably caused the immunoassay detections. The GC method also can detect compounds other than BTEX, PAH, PCB, and PCP. Concentrations for 81 of the additional compounds were determined and were less than the MRLs.Four compounds that could not be quantified accurately using the requested analytical methods also were detected. Acetone was detected in 4 of the 27 wells, 2-butanone was detected in 3 of the 27 wells, prometon was detected in 1 of the 27 wells, and tetrahydrofuran was detected in 9 of the 27 wells. Acetone, 2-butanone, and tetrahydrofuran probably leached from the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe and joint glue and probably are not contaminants from the aquifer. Prometon is a herbicide that controls most annual and many perennial broadleaf weeds and primarily is used on roads and railroad tracks. The one occurrence of prometon could be caused by overspraying for weeds.

Method for oil pipeline leak detection based on distributed fiber optic technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huabo; Tu, Yaqing; Luo, Ting

1998-08-01

Pipeline leak detection is a difficult problem to solve up to now. Some traditional leak detection methods have such problems as high rate of false alarm or missing detection, low location estimate capability. For the problems given above, a method for oil pipeline leak detection based on distributed optical fiber sensor with special coating is presented. The fiber's coating interacts with hydrocarbon molecules in oil, which alters the refractive indexed of the coating. Therefore the light-guiding properties of the fiber are modified. Thus pipeline leak location can be determined by OTDR. Oil pipeline lead detection system is designed based on the principle. The system has some features like real time, multi-point detection at the same time and high location accuracy. In the end, some factors that probably influence detection are analyzed and primary improving actions are given.

Compensating for geographic variation in detection probability with water depth improves abundance estimates of coastal marine megafauna.

PubMed

Hagihara, Rie; Jones, Rhondda E; Sobtzick, Susan; Cleguer, Christophe; Garrigue, Claire; Marsh, Helene

2018-01-01

The probability of an aquatic animal being available for detection is typically <1. Accounting for covariates that reduce the probability of detection is important for obtaining robust estimates of the population abundance and determining its status and trends. The dugong (Dugong dugon) is a bottom-feeding marine mammal and a seagrass community specialist. We hypothesized that the probability of a dugong being available for detection is dependent on water depth and that dugongs spend more time underwater in deep-water seagrass habitats than in shallow-water seagrass habitats. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying the depth use of 28 wild dugongs fitted with GPS satellite transmitters and time-depth recorders (TDRs) at three sites with distinct seagrass depth distributions: 1) open waters supporting extensive seagrass meadows to 40 m deep (Torres Strait, 6 dugongs, 2015); 2) a protected bay (average water depth 6.8 m) with extensive shallow seagrass beds (Moreton Bay, 13 dugongs, 2011 and 2012); and 3) a mixture of lagoon, coral and seagrass habitats to 60 m deep (New Caledonia, 9 dugongs, 2013). The fitted instruments were used to measure the times the dugongs spent in the experimentally determined detection zones under various environmental conditions. The estimated probability of detection was applied to aerial survey data previously collected at each location. In general, dugongs were least available for detection in Torres Strait, and the population estimates increased 6-7 fold using depth-specific availability correction factors compared with earlier estimates that assumed homogeneous detection probability across water depth and location. Detection probabilities were higher in Moreton Bay and New Caledonia than Torres Strait because the water transparency in these two locations was much greater than in Torres Strait and the effect of correcting for depth-specific detection probability much less. The methodology has application to visual survey of coastal megafauna including surveys using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

Impact of signal scattering and parametric uncertainties on receiver operating characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, D. Keith; Breton, Daniel J.; Hart, Carl R.; Pettit, Chris L.

2017-05-01

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve), which is a plot of the probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, plays a key role in the classical analysis of detector performance. However, meaningful characterization of the ROC curve is challenging when practically important complications such as variations in source emissions, environmental impacts on the signal propagation, uncertainties in the sensor response, and multiple sources of interference are considered. In this paper, a relatively simple but realistic model for scattered signals is employed to explore how parametric uncertainties impact the ROC curve. In particular, we show that parametric uncertainties in the mean signal and noise power substantially raise the tails of the distributions; since receiver operation with a very low probability of false alarm and a high probability of detection is normally desired, these tails lead to severely degraded performance. Because full a priori knowledge of such parametric uncertainties is rarely available in practice, analyses must typically be based on a finite sample of environmental states, which only partially characterize the range of parameter variations. We show how this effect can lead to misleading assessments of system performance. For the cases considered, approximately 64 or more statistically independent samples of the uncertain parameters are needed to accurately predict the probabilities of detection and false alarm. A connection is also described between selection of suitable distributions for the uncertain parameters, and Bayesian adaptive methods for inferring the parameters.

Directed Design of Experiments (DOE) for Determining Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Ed

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews some of the issues that people who specialize in Non destructive evaluation (NDE) have with determining the statistics of the probability of detection. There is discussion of the use of the binominal distribution, and the probability of hit. The presentation then reviews the concepts of Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection of Inspection Systems (DOEPOD). Several cases are reviewed, and discussed. The concept of false calls is also reviewed.

The probability of flaw detection and the probability of false calls in nondestructive evaluation equipment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Temple, Enoch C.

1994-01-01

The space industry has developed many composite materials that have high durability in proportion to their weights. Many of these materials have a likelihood for flaws that is higher than in traditional metals. There are also coverings (such as paint) that develop flaws that may adversely affect the performance of the system in which they are used. Therefore there is a need to monitor the soundness of composite structures. To meet this monitoring need, many nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems have been developed. An NDE system is designed to detect material flaws and make flaw measurements without destroying the inspected item. Also, the detection operation is expected to be performed in a rapid manner in a field or production environment. Some of the most recent video-based NDE methodologies are shearography, holography, thermography, and video image correlation.

Real-Time Inspection Of Currency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blazek, Henry

1986-12-01

An automatic inspection machine, designed and manufactured by the Perkin-Elmer Corporation for the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing, is capable of real-time inspection of currency at rates compatible with the output of modern high-speed printing presses. Inspection is accomplished by comparing test notes (in 32-per-sheet format) with reference notes stored in the memory of a digital computer. This paper describes the development of algorithms for detecting defective notes, one of the key problems solved during the development of the inspection system. Results achieved on an analytical model, used for predicting probability of false alarms and probability of detecting typically defective notes, are compared to those obtained by system simulation.

Small-target leak detection for a closed vessel via infrared image sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ling; Yang, Hongjiu

2017-03-01

This paper focus on a leak diagnosis and localization method based on infrared image sequences. Some problems on high probability of false warning and negative affect for marginal information are solved by leak detection. An experimental model is established for leak diagnosis and localization on infrared image sequences. The differential background prediction is presented to eliminate the negative affect of marginal information on test vessel based on a kernel regression method. A pipeline filter based on layering voting is designed to reduce probability of leak point false warning. A synthesize leak diagnosis and localization algorithm is proposed based on infrared image sequences. The effectiveness and potential are shown for developed techniques through experimental results.

Resolution Enhanced Magnetic Sensing System for Wide Coverage Real Time UXO Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zalevsky, Zeev; Bregman, Yuri; Salomonski, Nizan; Zafrir, Hovav

2012-09-01

In this paper we present a new high resolution automatic detection algorithm based upon a Wavelet transform and then validate it in marine related experiments. The proposed approach allows obtaining an automatic detection in a very low signal to noise ratios. The amount of calculations is reduced, the magnetic trend is depressed and the probability of detection/ false alarm rate can easily be controlled. Moreover, the algorithm enables to distinguish between close targets. In the algorithm we use the physical dependence of the magnetic field of a magnetic dipole in order to define a Wavelet mother function that later on can detect magnetic targets modeled as dipoles and embedded in noisy surrounding, at improved resolution. The proposed algorithm was realized on synthesized targets and then validated in field experiments involving a marine surface-floating system for wide coverage real time unexploded ordinance (UXO) detection and mapping. The detection probability achieved in the marine experiment was above 90%. The horizontal radial error of most of the detected targets was only 16 m and two baseline targets that were immersed about 20 m one to another could easily be distinguished.

Relaxing the closure assumption in single-season occupancy models: staggered arrival and departure times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2013-01-01

Occupancy statistical models that account for imperfect detection have proved very useful in several areas of ecology, including species distribution and spatial dynamics, disease ecology, and ecological responses to climate change. These models are based on the collection of multiple samples at each of a number of sites within a given season, during which it is assumed the species is either absent or present and available for detection while each sample is taken. However, for some species, individuals are only present or available for detection seasonally. We present a statistical model that relaxes the closure assumption within a season by permitting staggered entry and exit times for the species of interest at each site. Based on simulation, our open model eliminates bias in occupancy estimators and in some cases increases precision. The power to detect the violation of closure is high if detection probability is reasonably high. In addition to providing more robust estimation of occupancy, this model permits comparison of phenology across sites, species, or years, by modeling variation in arrival or departure probabilities. In a comparison of four species of amphibians in Maryland we found that two toad species arrived at breeding sites later in the season than a salamander and frog species, and departed from sites earlier.

Spatial patch occupancy patterns of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Nichols, James D.; Morkill, Anne; Anderson, Chad

2011-01-01

Reliable estimates of presence or absence of a species can provide substantial information on management questions related to distribution and habitat use but should incorporate the probability of detection to reduce bias. We surveyed for the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) in habitat patches on 5 Florida Key islands, USA, to estimate occupancy and detection probabilities. We derived detection probabilities using spatial replication of plots and evaluated hypotheses that patch location (coastal or interior) and patch size influence occupancy and detection. Results demonstrate that detection probability, given rabbits were present, was <0.5 and suggest that naïve estimates (i.e., estimates without consideration of imperfect detection) of patch occupancy are negatively biased. We found that patch size and location influenced probability of occupancy but not detection. Our findings will be used by Refuge managers to evaluate population trends of Lower Keys marsh rabbits from historical data and to guide management decisions for species recovery. The sampling and analytical methods we used may be useful for researchers and managers of other endangered lagomorphs and cryptic or fossorial animals occupying diverse habitats.

Frequency of alleles conferring resistance to a Bacillus thuringiensis toxin in a Philippine population of Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae).

PubMed

Bentur, J S; Andow, D A; Cohen, M B; Romena, A M; Gould, F

2000-10-01

Using the F2 screen methodology, we estimated the frequency of alleles conferring resistance to the Cry1Ab toxin of Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner in a Philippine population of the stem borer Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker). Evaluation of >450 isofemale lines for survival of F2 larvae on cry1Ab plants did not detect the presence of an allele conferring a high level of resistance. The frequency of such an allele in the sampled population was conservatively estimated to be <3.6 x 10(-3) with 95% confidence and a detection probability of 94%. However, there was evidence of the presence of alleles conferring partial resistance to Cry1Ab. The frequency of alleles for partial resistance was estimated as 4.8 x 10(-3) with a 95% CI between 1.3 x 10(-3) and 1.04 x 10(-2) and a detection probability of 94%. Our results suggest that the frequency of alleles conferring resistance to Cry1Ab in the population of S. incertulas sampled is not too high to preclude successful implementation of the high dose/refuge resistance management strategy.

NDE detectability of fatigue type cracks in high strength alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christner, B. K.; Rummel, W. D.

1983-01-01

Specimens suitable for investigating the reliability of production nondestructive evaluation (NDE) to detect tightly closed fatigue cracks in high strength alloys representative of those materials used in spacecraft engine/booster construction were produced. Inconel 718 was selected as representative of nickel base alloys and Haynes 188 was selected as representative of cobalt base alloys used in this application. Cleaning procedures were developed to insure the reusability of the test specimens and a flaw detection reliability assessment of the fluorescent penetrant inspection method was performed using the test specimens produced to characterize their use for future reliability assessments and to provide additional NDE flaw detection reliability data for high strength alloys. The statistical analysis of the fluorescent penetrant inspection data was performed to determine the detection reliabilities for each inspection at a 90% probability/95% confidence level.

Neutron detection in a high gamma-ray background with EJ-301 and EJ-309 liquid scintillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevanato, L.; Cester, D.; Nebbia, G.; Viesti, G.

2012-10-01

Using a fast digitizer, the neutron-gamma discrimination capability of the new liquid scintillator EJ-309 is compared with that obtained using standard EJ-301. Moreover the capability of both the scintillation detectors to identify a weak neutron source in a high gamma-ray background is demonstrated. The probability of neutron detection is PD=95% at 95% confidence level for a gamma-ray background corresponding to a dose rate of 100 μSv/h.

Using occupancy models of forest breeding birds to prioritize conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Wan, A. A.; Sullivan, P.J.; Lembo, A.J.; Smith, C.R.; Maerz, J.C.; Lassoie, J.P.; Richmond, M.E.

2009-01-01

As urban development continues to encroach on the natural and rural landscape, land-use planners struggle to identify high priority conservation areas for protection. Although knowing where urban-sensitive species may be occurring on the landscape would facilitate conservation planning, research efforts are often not sufficiently designed to make quality predictions at unknown locations. Recent advances in occupancy modeling allow for more precise estimates of occupancy by accounting for differences in detectability. We applied these techniques to produce robust estimates of habitat occupancy for a subset of forest breeding birds, a group that has been shown to be sensitive to urbanization, in a rapidly urbanizing yet biological diverse region of New York State. We found that detection probability ranged widely across species, from 0.05 to 0.8. Our models suggest that detection probability declined with increasing forest fragmentation. We also found that the probability of occupancy of forest breeding birds is negatively influenced by increasing perimeter-area ratio of forest fragments and urbanization in the surrounding habitat matrix. We capitalized on our random sampling design to produce spatially explicit models that predict high priority conservation areas across the entire region, where interior-species were most likely to occur. Finally, we use our predictive maps to demonstrate how a strict sampling design coupled with occupancy modeling can be a valuable tool for prioritizing biodiversity conservation in land-use planning. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Count data, detection probabilities, and the demography, dynamics, distribution, and decline of amphibians.

PubMed

Schmidt, Benedikt R

2003-08-01

The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.

Shift Work and Obesity among Canadian Women: A Cross-Sectional Study Using a Novel Exposure Assessment Tool

PubMed Central

McGlynn, Natalie; Kirsh, Victoria A.; Cotterchio, Michelle; Harris, M. Anne; Nadalin, Victoria; Kreiger, Nancy

2015-01-01

Background/Objectives It has been suggested that the association between shift work and chronic disease is mediated by an increase in obesity. However, investigations of the relationship between shift work and obesity reveal mixed findings. Using a recently developed exposure assessment tool, this study examined the association between shift work and obesity among Canadian women from two studies: a cohort of university alumni, and a population-based study. Methods Self-administered questionnaire data were used from healthy, currently employed females in a population-based study, the Ontario Women’s Diet and Health case-control study (n = 1611 controls), and from a subset of a of university alumni from the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle, and Health (n = 1097) cohort study. Overweight was defined as BMI≥25 to <30, and obesity as BMI≥30. Reported occupation was converted to occupational codes and linked to a probability of shift work value derived from Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics data. Regular evenings, nights, or rotating work comprised shift work. Polytomous logistic regression estimated the association between probability of shift work, categorized as near nil, low, medium, and high probability of shift work, on overweight and obesity, controlling for detected confounders. Results In the population-based sample, high probability of shift work was associated with obesity (reference = near nil probability of shift work, OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.01–3.51, p = 0.047). In the alumni cohort, no significant association was detected between shift work and overweight or obesity. Conclusions As these analyses found a positive association between high probability of shift work exposure and obesity in a population-based sample, but not in an alumni cohort, it is suggested that the relationship between shift work and obesity is complex, and may be particularly susceptible to occupational and education-related factors within a given population. PMID:26376050

Shift Work and Obesity among Canadian Women: A Cross-Sectional Study Using a Novel Exposure Assessment Tool.

PubMed

McGlynn, Natalie; Kirsh, Victoria A; Cotterchio, Michelle; Harris, M Anne; Nadalin, Victoria; Kreiger, Nancy

2015-01-01

It has been suggested that the association between shift work and chronic disease is mediated by an increase in obesity. However, investigations of the relationship between shift work and obesity reveal mixed findings. Using a recently developed exposure assessment tool, this study examined the association between shift work and obesity among Canadian women from two studies: a cohort of university alumni, and a population-based study. Self-administered questionnaire data were used from healthy, currently employed females in a population-based study, the Ontario Women's Diet and Health case-control study (n = 1611 controls), and from a subset of a of university alumni from the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle, and Health (n = 1097) cohort study. Overweight was defined as BMI≥25 to <30, and obesity as BMI≥30. Reported occupation was converted to occupational codes and linked to a probability of shift work value derived from Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics data. Regular evenings, nights, or rotating work comprised shift work. Polytomous logistic regression estimated the association between probability of shift work, categorized as near nil, low, medium, and high probability of shift work, on overweight and obesity, controlling for detected confounders. In the population-based sample, high probability of shift work was associated with obesity (reference = near nil probability of shift work, OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.01-3.51, p = 0.047). In the alumni cohort, no significant association was detected between shift work and overweight or obesity. As these analyses found a positive association between high probability of shift work exposure and obesity in a population-based sample, but not in an alumni cohort, it is suggested that the relationship between shift work and obesity is complex, and may be particularly susceptible to occupational and education-related factors within a given population.

Rail integrity alert system (RIAS) feature discrimination : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

This report describes GE Global Researchs research, in partnership with GE Transportation, into developing and deploying : algorithms for a locomotive-based inductive sensing system that has a very high probability of detecting broken rails with v...

Cumulative detection probabilities and range accuracy of a pulsed Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode laser ranging system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hanjun; Ouyang, Zhengbiao; Liu, Qiang; Chen, Zhiliang; Lu, Hualan

2017-10-01

Cumulative pulses detection with appropriate cumulative pulses number and threshold has the ability to improve the detection performance of the pulsed laser ranging system with GM-APD. In this paper, based on Poisson statistics and multi-pulses cumulative process, the cumulative detection probabilities and their influence factors are investigated. With the normalized probability distribution of each time bin, the theoretical model of the range accuracy and precision is established, and the factors limiting the range accuracy and precision are discussed. The results show that the cumulative pulses detection can produce higher target detection probability and lower false alarm probability. However, for a heavy noise level and extremely weak echo intensity, the false alarm suppression performance of the cumulative pulses detection deteriorates quickly. The range accuracy and precision is another important parameter evaluating the detection performance, the echo intensity and pulse width are main influence factors on the range accuracy and precision, and higher range accuracy and precision is acquired with stronger echo intensity and narrower echo pulse width, for 5-ns echo pulse width, when the echo intensity is larger than 10, the range accuracy and precision lower than 7.5 cm can be achieved.

Effects of shifts in the rate of repetitive stimulation on sustained attention

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krulewitz, J. E.; Warm, J. S.; Wohl, T. H.

1975-01-01

The effects of shifts in the rate of presentation of repetitive neutral events (background event rate) were studied in a visual vigilance task. Four groups of subjects experienced either a high (21 events/min) or a low (6 events/min) event rate for 20 min and then experienced either the same or the alternate event rate for an additional 40 min. The temporal occurrence of critical target signals was identical for all groups, irrespective of event rate. The density of critical signals was 12 signals/20 min. By the end of the session, shifts in event rate were associated with changes in performance which resembled contrast effects found in other experimental situations in which shift paradigms were used. Relative to constant event rate control conditions, a shift from a low to a high event rate depressed the probability of signal detections, while a shift in the opposite direction enhanced the probability of signal detections.

Log-Linear Models for Gene Association

PubMed Central

Hu, Jianhua; Joshi, Adarsh; Johnson, Valen E.

2009-01-01

We describe a class of log-linear models for the detection of interactions in high-dimensional genomic data. This class of models leads to a Bayesian model selection algorithm that can be applied to data that have been reduced to contingency tables using ranks of observations within subjects, and discretization of these ranks within gene/network components. Many normalization issues associated with the analysis of genomic data are thereby avoided. A prior density based on Ewens’ sampling distribution is used to restrict the number of interacting components assigned high posterior probability, and the calculation of posterior model probabilities is expedited by approximations based on the likelihood ratio statistic. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the efficiency of the resulting algorithm for known interaction structures. Finally, the algorithm is validated in a microarray study for which it was possible to obtain biological confirmation of detected interactions. PMID:19655032

Diagnostic Accuracy of CT Coronary Angiography According to Pretest Probability of Coronary Artery Disease and Severity of Coronary Arterial Calcification: The CorE-64 International, Multicenter Study

PubMed Central

Arbab-Zadeh, Armin; Miller, Julie M; Rochitte, Carlos E; Dewey, Marc; Niinuma, Hiroyuki; Gottlieb, Ilan; Paul, Narinder; Clouse, Melvin E.; Shapiro, Edward P.; Hoe, John; Lardo, Albert C.; Bush, David E.; de Roos, Albert; Cox, Christopher; Brinker, Jeffrey; Lima, Joăo A. C.

2012-01-01

Objectives Assess the impact of patient population characteristics on accuracy by CT angiography (CTA) to detect obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Background The ability of CTA to exclude obstructive CAD in patients of different pretest probabilities and in presence of coronary calcification remains uncertain. Methods For the CorE-64 study 371 patients underwent CTA and cardiac catheterization for the detection of obstructive CAD defined as 50% or greater luminal stenosis by quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). This analysis includes 80 initially excluded patients with a calcium score ≥ 600. Area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate CTA diagnostic accuracy compared to QCA in patients according to calcium score and pretest probability of CAD. Results Analysis of patient-based quantitative CTA accuracy revealed an AUC of 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.95). AUC remained 0.93 (0.90-0.96) after excluding patients with known CAD but decreased to 0.81 (0.71-0.89) in patients with calcium score ≥ 600 (p=0.077). While AUC were similar (0.93, 0.92, and 0.93, respectively) for patients with intermediate, high pretest probability for CAD, and known CAD, negative predictive values were different: 0.90, 0.83, and 0.50, respectively. Negative predictive values decreased from 0.93 to 0.75 for patients with calcium score < or ≥ 100, respectively (p= 0.053). Conclusions Both pretest probability for CAD and coronary calcium scoring should be considered before using CTA for excluding obstructive CAD. CTA is less effective for this purpose in patients with calcium score ≥ 600 and in patients with a high pretest probability for obstructive CAD. PMID:22261160

Usefulness of DWI in preoperative assessment of deep myometrial invasion in patients with endometrial carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The objective of this study was to perform a systematic review and a meta-analysis in order to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) in the preoperative assessment of deep myometrial invasion in patients with endometrial carcinoma. Methods Studies evaluating DWI for the detection of deep myometrial invasion in patients with endometrial carcinoma were systematically searched for in the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library from January 1995 to January 2014. Methodologic quality was assessed by using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool. Bivariate random-effects meta-analytic methods were used to obtain pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The study also evaluated the clinical utility of DWI in preoperative assessment of deep myometrial invasion. Results Seven studies enrolling a total of 320 individuals met the study inclusion criteria. The summary area under the ROC curve was 0.91. There was no evidence of publication bias (P = 0.90, bias coefficient analysis). Sensitivity and specificity of DWI for detection of deep myometrial invasion across all studies were 0.90 and 0.89, respectively. Positive and negative likelihood ratios with DWI were 8 and 0.11 respectively. In patients with high pre-test probabilities, DWI enabled confirmation of deep myometrial invasion; in patients with low pre-test probabilities, DWI enabled exclusion of deep myometrial invasion. The worst case scenario (pre-test probability, 50%) post-test probabilities were 89% and 10% for positive and negative DWI results, respectively. Conclusion DWI has high sensitivity and specificity for detecting deep myometrial invasion and more importantly can reliably rule out deep myometrial invasion. Therefore, it would be worthwhile to add a DWI sequence to the standard MRI protocols in preoperative evaluation of endometrial cancer in order to detect deep myometrial invasion, which along with other poor prognostic factors like age, tumor grade, and LVSI would be useful in stratifying high risk groups thereby helping in the tailoring of surgical approach in patient with low risk of endometrial carcinoma. PMID:25608571

Acoustic surveys of Hawaiian Hoary Bats in Kahikinui Forest Reserve and Nakula Natural Area Reserve on the Island of Maui

USGS Publications Warehouse

Todd, Christopher M.; Pinzari, Corinna A.; Bonaccorso, Frank

2016-01-01

The Kahikinui Forest Reserve and the adjoining Nakula Natural Area Reserve (KFR-NNAR) was established in 2011 as a conservation area on the leeward slope of Haleakalā Volcano on the island of Maui to protect unique natural features and endangered species including the Hawaiian hoary bat, Lasiurus cinereus semotus. We recorded bat vocalizations from July 2012 to November 2014 using automated echolocation detectors at 14 point locations in the KFRNNAR. Our study area included remnants of recovering mesic montane forest with interspersed grasses (1,250‒1,850 m elevation, hereafter called “forest”) and xeric subalpine shrubland plant communities (1,860‒2,800 m, hereafter called “shrubland”). Monthly detections of Hawaiian hoary bats, Lasiurus cinereus semotus, within the KFR-NNAR identified areas of high and low detection probability as well as foraging activity. Sixty per cent of all detector-nights had confirmed bat vocalizations and included detections in every month of the study. Monthly detection probability values were highest from July to November 2012; these values were significantly greater than values measured in any month thereafter. Pooled values of detection probabilities, mean pulses/night, percentage of nights with feeding activity, and acoustic detections all were greater in the recovering forest zone than corresponding values from the shrublands. Our data provide baseline levels of hoary bat echolocation activity that may be compared with future studies in the KFR-NNAR relative to success criteria for Hawaiian hoary bat habitat restoration.

Factors affecting detectability of river otters during sign surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeffress, Mackenzie R.; Paukert, Craig P.; Sandercock, Brett K.; Gipson, Philip S.

2011-01-01

Sign surveys are commonly used to study and monitor wildlife species but may be flawed when surveys are conducted only once and cover short distances, which can lead to a lack of accountability for false absences. Multiple observers surveyed for river otter (Lontra canadensis) scat and tracks along stream and reservoir shorelines at 110 randomly selected sites in eastern Kansas from January to April 2008 and 2009 to determine if detection probability differed among substrates, sign types, observers, survey lengths, and near access points. We estimated detection probabilities (p) of river otters using occupancy models in Program PRESENCE. Mean detection probability for a 400-m survey was highest in mud substrates (p = 0.60) and lowest in snow (p = 0.18) and leaf litter substrates (p = 0.27). Scat had a higher detection probability (p = 0.53) than tracks (p = 0.18), and experienced observers had higher detection probabilities (p < 0.71) than novice observers (p < 0.55). Detection probabilities increased almost 3-fold as survey length increased from 200 m to 1,000 m, and otter sign was not concentrated near access points. After accounting for imperfect detection, our estimates of otter site occupancy based on a 400-m survey increased >3-fold, providing further evidence of the potential negative bias that can occur in estimates from sign surveys when imperfect detection is not addressed. Our study identifies areas for improvement in sign survey methodologies and results are applicable for sign surveys commonly used for many species across a range of habitats.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores.

PubMed

Harmsen, Bart J; Foster, Rebecca J; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E; Silver, Scott C; Ostro, Linde E T; Kelly, Marcella J; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.

Effectiveness of scat-detection dogs in determining species presence in a tropical savanna landscape.

PubMed

Vynne, Carly; Skalski, John R; Machado, Ricardo B; Groom, Martha J; Jácomo, Anah T A; Marinho-Filho, Jader; Ramos Neto, Mario B; Pomilla, Cristina; Silveira, Leandro; Smith, Heath; Wasser, Samuel K

2011-02-01

Most protected areas are too small to sustain populations of wide-ranging mammals; thus, identification and conservation of high-quality habitat for those animals outside parks is often a high priority, particularly for regions where extensive land conversion is occurring. This is the case in the vicinity of Emas National Park, a small protected area in the Brazilian Cerrado. Over the last 40 years the native vegetation surrounding the park has been converted to agriculture, but the region still supports virtually all of the animals native to the area. We determined the effectiveness of scat-detection dogs in detecting presence of five species of mammals threatened with extinction by habitat loss: maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), puma (Puma concolor), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), and giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus). The probability of scat detection varied among the five species and among survey quadrats of different size, but was consistent across team, season, and year. The probability of occurrence, determined from the presence of scat, in a randomly selected site within the study area ranged from 0.14 for jaguars, which occur primarily in the forested areas of the park, to 0.91 for maned wolves, the most widely distributed species in our study area. Most occurrences of giant armadillos in the park were in open grasslands, but in the agricultural matrix they tended to occur in riparian woodlands. At least one target species occurred in every survey quadrat, and giant armadillos, jaguars, and maned wolves were more likely to be present in quadrats located inside than outside the park. The effort required for detection of scats was highest for the two felids. We were able to detect the presence for each of five wide-ranging species inside and outside the park and to assign occurrence probabilities to specific survey sites. Thus, scat dogs provide an effective survey tool for rare species even when accurate detection likelihoods are required. We believe the way we used scat-detection dogs to determine the presence of species can be applied to the detection of other mammalian species in other ecosystems. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dissociation in decision bias mechanism between probabilistic information and previous decision

PubMed Central

Kaneko, Yoshiyuki; Sakai, Katsuyuki

2015-01-01

Target detection performance is known to be influenced by events in the previous trials. It has not been clear, however, whether this bias effect is due to the previous sensory stimulus, motor response, or decision. Also it remains open whether or not the previous trial effect emerges via the same mechanism as the effect of knowledge about the target probability. In the present study, we asked normal human subjects to make a decision about the presence or absence of a visual target. We presented a pre-cue indicating the target probability before the stimulus, and also a decision-response mapping cue after the stimulus so as to tease apart the effect of decision from that of motor response. We found that the target detection performance was significantly affected by the probability cue in the current trial and also by the decision in the previous trial. While the information about the target probability modulated the decision criteria, the previous decision modulated the sensitivity to target-relevant sensory signals (d-prime). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we also found that activation in the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS) was decreased when the probability cue indicated a high probability of the target. By contrast, activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) was increased when the subjects made a target-present decision in the previous trial, but this change was observed specifically when the target was present in the current trial. Activation in these regions was associated with individual-difference in the decision computation parameters. We argue that the previous decision biases the target detection performance by modulating the processing of target-selective information, and this mechanism is distinct from modulation of decision criteria due to expectation of a target. PMID:25999844

Mining of high utility-probability sequential patterns from uncertain databases

PubMed Central

Zhang, Binbin; Fournier-Viger, Philippe; Li, Ting

2017-01-01

High-utility sequential pattern mining (HUSPM) has become an important issue in the field of data mining. Several HUSPM algorithms have been designed to mine high-utility sequential patterns (HUPSPs). They have been applied in several real-life situations such as for consumer behavior analysis and event detection in sensor networks. Nonetheless, most studies on HUSPM have focused on mining HUPSPs in precise data. But in real-life, uncertainty is an important factor as data is collected using various types of sensors that are more or less accurate. Hence, data collected in a real-life database can be annotated with existing probabilities. This paper presents a novel pattern mining framework called high utility-probability sequential pattern mining (HUPSPM) for mining high utility-probability sequential patterns (HUPSPs) in uncertain sequence databases. A baseline algorithm with three optional pruning strategies is presented to mine HUPSPs. Moroever, to speed up the mining process, a projection mechanism is designed to create a database projection for each processed sequence, which is smaller than the original database. Thus, the number of unpromising candidates can be greatly reduced, as well as the execution time for mining HUPSPs. Substantial experiments both on real-life and synthetic datasets show that the designed algorithm performs well in terms of runtime, number of candidates, memory usage, and scalability for different minimum utility and minimum probability thresholds. PMID:28742847

An empirical probability model of detecting species at low densities.

PubMed

Delaney, David G; Leung, Brian

2010-06-01

False negatives, not detecting things that are actually present, are an important but understudied problem. False negatives are the result of our inability to perfectly detect species, especially those at low density such as endangered species or newly arriving introduced species. They reduce our ability to interpret presence-absence survey data and make sound management decisions (e.g., rapid response). To reduce the probability of false negatives, we need to compare the efficacy and sensitivity of different sampling approaches and quantify an unbiased estimate of the probability of detection. We conducted field experiments in the intertidal zone of New England and New York to test the sensitivity of two sampling approaches (quadrat vs. total area search, TAS), given different target characteristics (mobile vs. sessile). Using logistic regression we built detection curves for each sampling approach that related the sampling intensity and the density of targets to the probability of detection. The TAS approach reduced the probability of false negatives and detected targets faster than the quadrat approach. Mobility of targets increased the time to detection but did not affect detection success. Finally, we interpreted two years of presence-absence data on the distribution of the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) in New England and New York, using our probability model for false negatives. The type of experimental approach in this paper can help to reduce false negatives and increase our ability to detect species at low densities by refining sampling approaches, which can guide conservation strategies and management decisions in various areas of ecology such as conservation biology and invasion ecology.

Tuned by experience: How orientation probability modulates early perceptual processing.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-09-01

Probable stimuli are more often and more quickly detected. While stimulus probability is known to affect decision-making, it can also be explained as a perceptual phenomenon. Using spatial gratings, we have previously shown that probable orientations are also more precisely estimated, even while participants remained naive to the manipulation. We conducted an electrophysiological study to investigate the effect that probability has on perception and visual-evoked potentials. In line with previous studies on oddballs and stimulus prevalence, low-probability orientations were associated with a greater late positive 'P300' component which might be related to either surprise or decision-making. However, the early 'C1' component, thought to reflect V1 processing, was dampened for high-probability orientations while later P1 and N1 components were unaffected. Exploratory analyses revealed a participant-level correlation between C1 and P300 amplitudes, suggesting a link between perceptual processing and decision-making. We discuss how these probability effects could be indicative of sharpening of neurons preferring the probable orientations, due either to perceptual learning, or to feature-based attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Gilbert, Andrew T.; Annand, Elizabeth M.; Husband, Thomas P.; Hines, James E.

2008-01-01

Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method.We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site.We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber. For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species.Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be viewed as another variation of Pollock's robust design and may be applicable to a wide variety of scenarios where species occur in an area but are not always near the sampled locations. The estimation approach is likely to be especially useful in multispecies conservation programmes by providing efficient estimates using multiple detection devices and by providing device-specific detection probability estimates for use in survey design.

Comparison of Non-Culture-Based Methods for Detection of Systemic Fungal Infections, with an Emphasis on Invasive Candida Infections

PubMed Central

White, P. Lewis; Archer, Alice E.; Barnes, Rosemary A.

2005-01-01

The accepted limitations associated with classic culture techniques for the diagnosis of invasive fungal infections have lead to the emergence of many non-culture-based methods. With superior sensitivities and quicker turnaround times, non-culture-based methods may aid the diagnosis of invasive fungal infections. In this review of the diagnostic service, we assessed the performances of two antigen detection techniques (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA] and latex agglutination) with a molecular method for the detection of invasive Candida infection and invasive aspergillosis. The specificities for all three assays were high (≥97%), although the Candida PCR method had enhanced sensitivity over both ELISA and latex agglutination with values of 95%, 75%, and 25%, respectively. However, calculating significant sensitivity values for the Aspergillus detection methods was not feasible due to a low number of proven/probable cases. Despite enhanced sensitivity, the PCR method failed to detect nucleic acid in a probable case of invasive Candida infection that was detected by ELISA. In conclusion, both PCR and ELISA techniques should be used in unison to aid the detection of invasive fungal infections. PMID:15872239

Probability of detecting band-tailed pigeons during call-broadcast versus auditory surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirkpatrick, C.; Conway, C.J.; Hughes, K.M.; Devos, J.C.

2007-01-01

Estimates of population trend for the interior subspecies of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata fasciata) are not available because no standardized survey method exists for monitoring the interior subspecies. We evaluated 2 potential band-tailed pigeon survey methods (auditory and call-broadcast surveys) from 2002 to 2004 in 5 mountain ranges in southern Arizona, USA, and in mixed-conifer forest throughout the state. Both auditory and call-broadcast surveys produced low numbers of cooing pigeons detected per survey route (x?? ??? 0.67) and had relatively high temporal variance in average number of cooing pigeons detected during replicate surveys (CV ??? 161%). However, compared to auditory surveys, use of call-broadcast increased 1) the percentage of replicate surveys on which ???1 cooing pigeon was detected by an average of 16%, and 2) the number of cooing pigeons detected per survey route by an average of 29%, with this difference being greatest during the first 45 minutes of the morning survey period. Moreover, probability of detecting a cooing pigeon was 27% greater during call-broadcast (0.80) versus auditory (0.63) surveys. We found that cooing pigeons were most common in mixed-conifer forest in southern Arizona and density of male pigeons in mixed-conifer forest throughout the state averaged 0.004 (SE = 0.001) pigeons/ha. Our results are the first to show that call-broadcast increases the probability of detecting band-tailed pigeons (or any species of Columbidae) during surveys. Call-broadcast surveys may provide a useful method for monitoring populations of the interior subspecies of band-tailed pigeon in areas where other survey methods are inappropriate.

Estimating site occupancy and detection probability parameters for meso- and large mammals in a coastal eosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Sauer, John R.; Cook, Robert; Gilbert, Andrew T.

2006-01-01

Large-scale, multispecies monitoring programs are widely used to assess changes in wildlife populations but they often assume constant detectability when documenting species occurrence. This assumption is rarely met in practice because animal populations vary across time and space. As a result, detectability of a species can be influenced by a number of physical, biological, or anthropogenic factors (e.g., weather, seasonality, topography, biological rhythms, sampling methods). To evaluate some of these influences, we estimated site occupancy rates using species-specific detection probabilities for meso- and large terrestrial mammal species on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. We used model selection to assess the influence of different sampling methods and major environmental factors on our ability to detect individual species. Remote cameras detected the most species (9), followed by cubby boxes (7) and hair traps (4) over a 13-month period. Estimated site occupancy rates were similar among sampling methods for most species when detection probabilities exceeded 0.15, but we question estimates obtained from methods with detection probabilities between 0.05 and 0.15, and we consider methods with lower probabilities unacceptable for occupancy estimation and inference. Estimated detection probabilities can be used to accommodate variation in sampling methods, which allows for comparison of monitoring programs using different protocols. Vegetation and seasonality produced species-specific differences in detectability and occupancy, but differences were not consistent within or among species, which suggests that our results should be considered in the context of local habitat features and life history traits for the target species. We believe that site occupancy is a useful state variable and suggest that monitoring programs for mammals using occupancy data consider detectability prior to making inferences about species distributions or population change.

Aerial survey methodology for bison population estimation in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.

2002-01-01

I developed aerial survey methods for statistically rigorous bison population estimation in Yellowstone National Park to support sound resource management decisions and to understand bison ecology. Survey protocols, data recording procedures, a geographic framework, and seasonal stratifications were based on field observations from February 1998-September 2000. The reliability of this framework and strata were tested with long-term data from 1970-1997. I simulated different sample survey designs and compared them to high-effort censuses of well-defined large areas to evaluate effort, precision, and bias. Sample survey designs require much effort and extensive information on the current spatial distribution of bison and therefore do not offer any substantial reduction in time and effort over censuses. I conducted concurrent ground surveys, or 'double sampling' to estimate detection probability during aerial surveys. Group size distribution and habitat strongly affected detection probability. In winter, 75% of the groups and 92% of individual bison were detected on average from aircraft, while in summer, 79% of groups and 97% of individual bison were detected. I also used photography to quantify the bias due to counting large groups of bison accurately and found that undercounting increased with group size and could reach 15%. I compared survey conditions between seasons and identified optimal time windows for conducting surveys in both winter and summer. These windows account for the habitats and total area bison occupy, and group size distribution. Bison became increasingly scattered over the Yellowstone region in smaller groups and more occupied unfavorable habitats as winter progressed. Therefore, the best conditions for winter surveys occur early in the season (Dec-Jan). In summer, bison were most spatially aggregated and occurred in the largest groups by early August. Low variability between surveys and high detection probability provide population estimates with an overall coefficient of variation of approximately 8% and have high power for detecting trends in population change. I demonstrated how population estimates from winter and summer can be integrated into a comprehensive monitoring program to estimate annual growth rates, overall winter mortality, and an index of calf production, requiring about 30 hours of flight per year.

Computer-aided diagnosis with potential application to rapid detection of disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Koster, Frederick; Picard, Rick; Forslund, Dave; Wokoun, Doug; Joyce, Ed; Brillman, Judith; Froman, Phil; Lee, Jack

2007-04-15

Our objectives are to quickly interpret symptoms of emergency patients to identify likely syndromes and to improve population-wide disease outbreak detection. We constructed a database of 248 syndromes, each syndrome having an estimated probability of producing any of 85 symptoms, with some two-way, three-way, and five-way probabilities reflecting correlations among symptoms. Using these multi-way probabilities in conjunction with an iterative proportional fitting algorithm allows estimation of full conditional probabilities. Combining these conditional probabilities with misdiagnosis error rates and incidence rates via Bayes theorem, the probability of each syndrome is estimated. We tested a prototype of computer-aided differential diagnosis (CADDY) on simulated data and on more than 100 real cases, including West Nile Virus, Q fever, SARS, anthrax, plague, tularaemia and toxic shock cases. We conclude that: (1) it is important to determine whether the unrecorded positive status of a symptom means that the status is negative or that the status is unknown; (2) inclusion of misdiagnosis error rates produces more realistic results; (3) the naive Bayes classifier, which assumes all symptoms behave independently, is slightly outperformed by CADDY, which includes available multi-symptom information on correlations; as more information regarding symptom correlations becomes available, the advantage of CADDY over the naive Bayes classifier should increase; (4) overlooking low-probability, high-consequence events is less likely if the standard output summary is augmented with a list of rare syndromes that are consistent with observed symptoms, and (5) accumulating patient-level probabilities across a larger population can aid in biosurveillance for disease outbreaks. c 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

I Environmental DNA sampling is more sensitive than a traditional survey technique for detecting an aquatic invader.

PubMed

Smart, Adam S; Tingley, Reid; Weeks, Andrew R; van Rooyen, Anthony R; McCarthy, Michael A

2015-10-01

Effective management of alien species requires detecting populations in the early stages of invasion. Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling can detect aquatic species at relatively low densities, but few studies have directly compared detection probabilities of eDNA sampling with those of traditional sampling methods. We compare the ability of a traditional sampling technique (bottle trapping) and eDNA to detect a recently established invader, the smooth newt Lissotriton vulgaris vulgaris, at seven field sites in Melbourne, Australia. Over a four-month period, per-trap detection probabilities ranged from 0.01 to 0.26 among sites where L. v. vulgaris was detected, whereas per-sample eDNA estimates were much higher (0.29-1.0). Detection probabilities of both methods varied temporally (across days and months), but temporal variation appeared to be uncorrelated between methods. Only estimates of spatial variation were strongly correlated across the two sampling techniques. Environmental variables (water depth, rainfall, ambient temperature) were not clearly correlated with detection probabilities estimated via trapping, whereas eDNA detection probabilities were negatively correlated with water depth, possibly reflecting higher eDNA concentrations at lower water levels. Our findings demonstrate that eDNA sampling can be an order of magnitude more sensitive than traditional methods, and illustrate that traditional- and eDNA-based surveys can provide independent information on species distributions when occupancy surveys are conducted over short timescales.

Most Probable Number Rapid Viability PCR Method to Detect Viable Spores of Bacillus anthracis in Swab Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letant, S E; Kane, S R; Murphy, G A

2008-05-30

This note presents a comparison of Most-Probable-Number Rapid Viability (MPN-RV) PCR and traditional culture methods for the quantification of Bacillus anthracis Sterne spores in macrofoam swabs generated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for a multi-center validation study aimed at testing environmental swab processing methods for recovery, detection, and quantification of viable B. anthracis spores from surfaces. Results show that spore numbers provided by the MPN RV-PCR method were in statistical agreement with the CDC conventional culture method for all three levels of spores tested (10{sup 4}, 10{sup 2}, and 10 spores) even in the presence ofmore » dirt. In addition to detecting low levels of spores in environmental conditions, the MPN RV-PCR method is specific, and compatible with automated high-throughput sample processing and analysis protocols.« less

Multivariate Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events--an application to biosurveillance.

PubMed

Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

2012-09-01

This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a multivariate Bayesian approach that models multiple evidential features of every person in the population. This approach models and detects (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A contribution of this paper is that it introduces a multivariate Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has general applicability in domains where the space of known causes is incomplete. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of Availability on Parameter Estimates from Site Occupancy Models with Application to Submersed Aquatic Vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Holland, Mark D.; Yi, Feng; Starcevich, Leigh Ann Harrod

2013-01-01

Site occupancy models are commonly used by ecologists to estimate the probabilities of species site occupancy and of species detection. This study addresses the influence on site occupancy and detection estimates of variation in species availability among surveys within sites. Such variation in availability may result from temporary emigration, nonavailability of the species for detection, and sampling sites spatially when species presence is not uniform within sites. We demonstrate, using Monte Carlo simulations and aquatic vegetation data, that variation in availability and heterogeneity in the probability of availability may yield biases in the expected values of the site occupancy and detection estimates that have traditionally been associated with low-detection probabilities and heterogeneity in those probabilities. These findings confirm that the effects of availability may be important for ecologists and managers, and that where such effects are expected, modification of sampling designs and/or analytical methods should be considered. Failure to limit the effects of availability may preclude reliable estimation of the probability of site occupancy.

True detection limits in an experimental linearly heteroscedastic system. Part 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigtman, Edward; Abraham, Kevin T.

2011-11-01

Using a lab-constructed laser-excited filter fluorimeter deliberately designed to exhibit linearly heteroscedastic, additive Gaussian noise, it has been shown that accurate estimates may be made of the true theoretical Currie decision levels ( YC and XC) and true Currie detection limits ( YD and XD) for the detection of rhodamine 6 G tetrafluoroborate in ethanol. The obtained experimental values, for 5% probability of false positives and 5% probability of false negatives, were YC = 56.1 mV, YD = 125. mV, XC = 0.132 μg /mL and XD = 0.294 μg /mL. For 5% probability of false positives and 1% probability of false negatives, the obtained detection limits were YD = 158. mV and XD = 0.372 μg /mL. These decision levels and corresponding detection limits were shown to pass the ultimate test: they resulted in observed probabilities of false positives and false negatives that were statistically equivalent to the a priori specified values.

Modeling co-occurrence of northern spotted and barred owls: accounting for detection probability differences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Larissa L.; Reid, Janice A.; Forsman, Eric D.; Nichols, James D.

2009-01-01

Barred owls (Strix varia) have recently expanded their range and now encompass the entire range of the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). This expansion has led to two important issues of concern for management of northern spotted owls: (1) possible competitive interactions between the two species that could contribute to population declines of northern spotted owls, and (2) possible changes in vocalization behavior and detection probabilities of northern spotted owls induced by presence of barred owls. We used a two-species occupancy model to investigate whether there was evidence of competitive exclusion between the two species at study locations in Oregon, USA. We simultaneously estimated detection probabilities for both species and determined if the presence of one species influenced the detection of the other species. Model selection results and associated parameter estimates provided no evidence that barred owls excluded spotted owls from territories. We found strong evidence that detection probabilities differed for the two species, with higher probabilities for northern spotted owls that are the object of current surveys. Non-detection of barred owls is very common in surveys for northern spotted owls, and detection of both owl species was negatively influenced by the presence of the congeneric species. Our results suggest that analyses directed at hypotheses of barred owl effects on demographic or occupancy vital rates of northern spotted owls need to deal adequately with imperfect and variable detection probabilities for both species.

Identification of Swallowing Tasks From a Modified Barium Swallow Study That Optimize the Detection of Physiological Impairment

PubMed Central

Armeson, Kent E.; Hill, Elizabeth G.; Bonilha, Heather Shaw; Martin-Harris, Bonnie

2017-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to identify which swallowing task(s) yielded the worst performance during a standardized modified barium swallow study (MBSS) in order to optimize the detection of swallowing impairment. Method This secondary data analysis of adult MBSSs estimated the probability of each swallowing task yielding the derived Modified Barium Swallow Impairment Profile (MBSImP™©; Martin-Harris et al., 2008) Overall Impression (OI; worst) scores using generalized estimating equations. The range of probabilities across swallowing tasks was calculated to discern which swallowing task(s) yielded the worst performance. Results Large-volume, thin-liquid swallowing tasks had the highest probabilities of yielding the OI scores for oral containment and airway protection. The cookie swallowing task was most likely to yield OI scores for oral clearance. Several swallowing tasks had nearly equal probabilities (≤ .20) of yielding the OI score. Conclusions The MBSS must represent impairment while requiring boluses that challenge the swallowing system. No single swallowing task had a sufficiently high probability to yield the identification of the worst score for each physiological component. Omission of swallowing tasks will likely fail to capture the most severe impairment for physiological components critical for safe and efficient swallowing. Results provide further support for standardized, well-tested protocols during MBSS. PMID:28614846

Identification of Swallowing Tasks From a Modified Barium Swallow Study That Optimize the Detection of Physiological Impairment.

PubMed

Hazelwood, R Jordan; Armeson, Kent E; Hill, Elizabeth G; Bonilha, Heather Shaw; Martin-Harris, Bonnie

2017-07-12

The purpose of this study was to identify which swallowing task(s) yielded the worst performance during a standardized modified barium swallow study (MBSS) in order to optimize the detection of swallowing impairment. This secondary data analysis of adult MBSSs estimated the probability of each swallowing task yielding the derived Modified Barium Swallow Impairment Profile (MBSImP™©; Martin-Harris et al., 2008) Overall Impression (OI; worst) scores using generalized estimating equations. The range of probabilities across swallowing tasks was calculated to discern which swallowing task(s) yielded the worst performance. Large-volume, thin-liquid swallowing tasks had the highest probabilities of yielding the OI scores for oral containment and airway protection. The cookie swallowing task was most likely to yield OI scores for oral clearance. Several swallowing tasks had nearly equal probabilities (≤ .20) of yielding the OI score. The MBSS must represent impairment while requiring boluses that challenge the swallowing system. No single swallowing task had a sufficiently high probability to yield the identification of the worst score for each physiological component. Omission of swallowing tasks will likely fail to capture the most severe impairment for physiological components critical for safe and efficient swallowing. Results provide further support for standardized, well-tested protocols during MBSS.

Practical results from a mathematical analysis of guard patrols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Indusi, Joseph P.

1978-12-01

Using guard patrols as a primary detection mechanism is not generally viewed as a highly efficient detection method when compared to electronic means. Many factors such as visibility, alertness, and the space-time coincidence of guard and adversary presence all have an effect on the probability of detection. Mathematical analysis of the guard patrol detection problem is related to that of classical search theory originally developed for naval search operations. The results of this analysis tend to support the current practice of using guard forces to assess and respond to previously detected intrusions and not as the primary detection mechanism. 6more » refs.« less

Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, G.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Fancy, S.G.; Pollock, K.H.; Shriner, S.A.; Simons, T.R.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point counts in favor of more intensive approaches to counting. However, over the past few years a variety of statistical and methodological developments have begun to provide practical ways of overcoming some of the problems with point counts. We describe some of these approaches, and show how they can be integrated into standard point count protocols to greatly enhance the quality of the information. Several tools now exist for estimation of detection probability of birds during counts, including distance sampling, double observer methods, time-depletion (removal) methods, and hybrid methods that combine these approaches. Many counts are conducted in habitats that make auditory detection of birds much more likely than visual detection. As a framework for understanding detection probability during such counts, we propose separating two components of the probability a bird is detected during a count into (1) the probability a bird vocalizes during the count and (2) the probability this vocalization is detected by an observer. In addition, we propose that some measure of the area sampled during a count is necessary for valid inferences about bird populations. This can be done by employing fixed-radius counts or more sophisticated distance-sampling models. We recommend any studies employing point counts be designed to estimate detection probability and to include a measure of the area sampled.

Assessing Aircraft Supply Air to Recommend Compounds for Timely Warning of Contamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Richard B.

Taking aircraft out of service for even one day to correct fume-in-cabin events can cost the industry roughly $630 million per year in lost revenue. The quantitative correlation study investigated quantitative relationships between measured concentrations of contaminants in bleed air and probability of odor detectability. Data were collected from 94 aircraft engine and auxiliary power unit (APU) bleed air tests from an archival data set between 1997 and 2011, and no relationships were found. Pearson correlation was followed by regression analysis for individual contaminants. Significant relationships of concentrations of compounds in bleed air to probability of odor detectability were found (p<0.05), as well as between compound concentration and probability of sensory irritancy detectability. Study results may be useful to establish early warning levels. Predictive trend monitoring, a method to identify potential pending failure modes within a mechanical system, may influence scheduled down-time for maintenance as a planned event, rather than repair after a mechanical failure and thereby reduce operational costs associated with odor-in-cabin events. Twenty compounds (independent variables) were found statistically significant as related to probability of odor detectability (dependent variable 1). Seventeen compounds (independent variables) were found statistically significant as related to probability of sensory irritancy detectability (dependent variable 2). Additional research was recommended to further investigate relationships between concentrations of contaminants and probability of odor detectability or probability of sensory irritancy detectability for all turbine oil brands. Further research on implementation of predictive trend monitoring may be warranted to demonstrate how the monitoring process might be applied to in-flight application.

Application of Probability of Crack Detection to Aircraft Systems Reliability.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-08-31

This report describes three tasks related to probability of crack detection (POD) and aircraft systems reliablity. All three consider previous work in which crack growth simulations and crack detection data in the Service Difficulty Report (SDR) data...

"A violation of the conditional independence assumption in the two-high-threshold Model of recognition memory": Correction to Chen, Starns, and Rotello (2015).

PubMed

2016-01-01

Reports an error in "A violation of the conditional independence assumption in the two-high-threshold model of recognition memory" by Tina Chen, Jeffrey J. Starns and Caren M. Rotello (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2015[Jul], Vol 41[4], 1215-1222). In the article, Chen et al. compared three models: a continuous signal detection model (SDT), a standard two-high-threshold discrete-state model in which detect states always led to correct responses (2HT), and a full-mapping version of the 2HT model in which detect states could lead to either correct or incorrect responses. After publication, Rani Moran (personal communication, April 21, 2015) identified two errors that impact the reported fit statistics for the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) metric of all models as well as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) results for the full-mapping model. The errors are described in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2014-56216-001.) The 2-high-threshold (2HT) model of recognition memory assumes that test items result in distinct internal states: they are either detected or not, and the probability of responding at a particular confidence level that an item is "old" or "new" depends on the state-response mapping parameters. The mapping parameters are independent of the probability that an item yields a particular state (e.g., both strong and weak items that are detected as old have the same probability of producing a highest-confidence "old" response). We tested this conditional independence assumption by presenting nouns 1, 2, or 4 times. To maximize the strength of some items, "superstrong" items were repeated 4 times and encoded in conjunction with pleasantness, imageability, anagram, and survival processing tasks. The 2HT model failed to simultaneously capture the response rate data for all item classes, demonstrating that the data violated the conditional independence assumption. In contrast, a Gaussian signal detection model, which posits that the level of confidence that an item is "old" or "new" is a function of its continuous strength value, provided a good account of the data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Three-dimensional obstacle classification in laser range data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armbruster, Walter; Bers, Karl-Heinz

1998-10-01

The threat of hostile surveillance and weapon systems require military aircraft to fly under extreme conditions such as low altitude, high speed, poor visibility and incomplete terrain information. The probability of collision with natural and man-made obstacles during such contour missions is high if detection capability is restricted to conventional vision aids. Forward-looking scanning laser rangefinders which are presently being flight tested and evaluated at German proving grounds, provide a possible solution, having a large field of view, high angular and range resolution, a high pulse repetition rate, and sufficient pulse energy to register returns from wires at over 500 m range (depends on the system) with a high hit-and-detect probability. Despite the efficiency of the sensor, acceptance of current obstacle warning systems by test pilots is not very high, mainly due to the systems' inadequacies in obstacle recognition and visualization. This has motivated the development and the testing of more advanced 3d-scene analysis algorithm at FGAN-FIM to replace the obstacle recognition component of current warning systems. The basic ideas are to increase the recognition probability and to reduce the false alarm rate for hard-to-extract obstacles such as wires, by using more readily recognizable objects such as terrain, poles, pylons, trees, etc. by implementing a hierarchical classification procedure to generate a parametric description of the terrain surface as well as the class, position, orientation, size and shape of all objects in the scene. The algorithms can be used for other applications such as terrain following, autonomous obstacle avoidance, and automatic target recognition.

Interference Information Based Power Control for Cognitive Radio with Multi-Hop Cooperative Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Youngjin; Murata, Hidekazu; Yamamoto, Koji; Yoshida, Susumu

Reliable detection of other radio systems is crucial for systems that share the same frequency band. In wireless communication channels, there is uncertainty in the received signal level due to multipath fading and shadowing. Cooperative sensing techniques in which radio stations share their sensing information can improve the detection probability of other systems. In this paper, a new cooperative sensing scheme that reduces the false detection probability while maintaining the outage probability of other systems is investigated. In the proposed system, sensing information is collected using multi-hop transmission from all sensing stations that detect other systems, and transmission decisions are based on the received sensing information. The proposed system also controls the transmit power based on the received CINRs from the sensing stations. Simulation results reveal that the proposed system can reduce the outage probability of other systems, or improve its link success probability.

Improved detection probability of low level light and infrared image fusion system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Yuxiang; Fu, Rongguo; Zhang, Junju; Wang, Wencong; Chang, Benkang

2018-02-01

Low level light(LLL) image contains rich information on environment details, but is easily affected by the weather. In the case of smoke, rain, cloud or fog, much target information will lose. Infrared image, which is from the radiation produced by the object itself, can be "active" to obtain the target information in the scene. However, the image contrast and resolution is bad, the ability of the acquisition of target details is very poor, and the imaging mode does not conform to the human visual habit. The fusion of LLL and infrared image can make up for the deficiency of each sensor and give play to the advantages of single sensor. At first, we show the hardware design of fusion circuit. Then, through the recognition probability calculation of the target(one person) and the background image(trees), we find that the trees detection probability of LLL image is higher than that of the infrared image, and the person detection probability of the infrared image is obviously higher than that of LLL image. The detection probability of fusion image for one person and trees is higher than that of single detector. Therefore, image fusion can significantly enlarge recognition probability and improve detection efficiency.

Modulated high-energy gamma-ray emission from the microquasar Cygnus X-3.

PubMed

Abdo, A A; Ackermann, M; Ajello, M; Axelsson, M; Baldini, L; Ballet, J; Barbiellini, G; Bastieri, D; Baughman, B M; Bechtol, K; Bellazzini, R; Berenji, B; Blandford, R D; Bloom, E D; Bonamente, E; Borgland, A W; Brez, A; Brigida, M; Bruel, P; Burnett, T H; Buson, S; Caliandro, G A; Cameron, R A; Caraveo, P A; Casandjian, J M; Cecchi, C; Celik, O; Chaty, S; Cheung, C C; Chiang, J; Ciprini, S; Claus, R; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Cominsky, L R; Conrad, J; Corbel, S; Corbet, R; Dermer, C D; de Palma, F; Digel, S W; do Couto e Silva, E; Drell, P S; Dubois, R; Dubus, G; Dumora, D; Farnier, C; Favuzzi, C; Fegan, S J; Focke, W B; Fortin, P; Frailis, M; Fusco, P; Gargano, F; Gehrels, N; Germani, S; Giavitto, G; Giebels, B; Giglietto, N; Giordano, F; Glanzman, T; Godfrey, G; Grenier, I A; Grondin, M-H; Grove, J E; Guillemot, L; Guiriec, S; Hanabata, Y; Harding, A K; Hayashida, M; Hays, E; Hill, A B; Hjalmarsdotter, L; Horan, D; Hughes, R E; Jackson, M S; Jóhannesson, G; Johnson, A S; Johnson, T J; Johnson, W N; Kamae, T; Katagiri, H; Kawai, N; Kerr, M; Knödlseder, J; Kocian, M L; Koerding, E; Kuss, M; Lande, J; Latronico, L; Lemoine-Goumard, M; Longo, F; Loparco, F; Lott, B; Lovellette, M N; Lubrano, P; Madejski, G M; Makeev, A; Marchand, L; Marelli, M; Max-Moerbeck, W; Mazziotta, M N; McColl, N; McEnery, J E; Meurer, C; Michelson, P F; Migliari, S; Mitthumsiri, W; Mizuno, T; Monte, C; Monzani, M E; Morselli, A; Moskalenko, I V; Murgia, S; Nolan, P L; Norris, J P; Nuss, E; Ohsugi, T; Omodei, N; Ong, R A; Ormes, J F; Paneque, D; Parent, D; Pelassa, V; Pepe, M; Pesce-Rollins, M; Piron, F; Pooley, G; Porter, T A; Pottschmidt, K; Rainò, S; Rando, R; Ray, P S; Razzano, M; Rea, N; Readhead, A; Reimer, A; Reimer, O; Richards, J L; Rochester, L S; Rodriguez, J; Rodriguez, A Y; Romani, R W; Ryde, F; Sadrozinski, H F-W; Sander, A; Saz Parkinson, P M; Sgrò, C; Siskind, E J; Smith, D A; Smith, P D; Spinelli, P; Starck, J-L; Stevenson, M; Strickman, M S; Suson, D J; Takahashi, H; Tanaka, T; Thayer, J B; Thompson, D J; Tibaldo, L; Tomsick, J A; Torres, D F; Tosti, G; Tramacere, A; Uchiyama, Y; Usher, T L; Vasileiou, V; Vilchez, N; Vitale, V; Waite, A P; Wang, P; Wilms, J; Winer, B L; Wood, K S; Ylinen, T; Ziegler, M

2009-12-11

Microquasars are accreting black holes or neutron stars in binary systems with associated relativistic jets. Despite their frequent outburst activity, they have never been unambiguously detected emitting high-energy gamma rays. The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has detected a variable high-energy source coinciding with the position of the x-ray binary and microquasar Cygnus X-3. Its identification with Cygnus X-3 is secured by the detection of its orbital period in gamma rays, as well as the correlation of the LAT flux with radio emission from the relativistic jets of Cygnus X-3. The gamma-ray emission probably originates from within the binary system, opening new areas in which to study the formation of relativistic jets.

Longitudinal Study of Hepatitis A Infection by Saliva Sampling: The Kinetics of HAV Markers in Saliva Revealed the Application of Saliva Tests for Hepatitis A Study.

PubMed

Amado Leon, Luciane Almeida; de Almeida, Adilson José; de Paula, Vanessa Salete; Tourinho, Renata Santos; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Gaspar, Ana Maria Coimbra; Lewis-Ximenez, Lia Laura; Pinto, Marcelo Alves

2015-01-01

Despite the increasing numbers of studies investigating hepatitis A diagnostic through saliva, the frequency and the pattern of hepatitis A virus (HAV) markers in this fluid still remains unknown. To address this issue, we carried on a longitudinal study to examine the kinetics of HAV markers in saliva, in comparison with serum samples. The present study followed-up ten patients with acute hepatitis A infection during 180 days post diagnosis (dpd). Total anti-HAV was detected in paired serum and saliva samples until the end of the follow-up, showing a peak titer at 90th. However, total anti-HAV level was higher in serum than in saliva samples. This HAV marker showed a probability of 100% to be detected in both serum and saliva during 180 dpd. The IgM anti-HAV could be detected in saliva up to 150 dpd, showing the highest frequency at 30th, when it was detected in all individuals. During the first month of HAV infection, this acute HAV marker showed a detection probability of 100% in paired samples. The detection of IgM anti-HAV in saliva was not dependent on its level in serum, HAV-RNA detection and/or viral load, since no association was found between IgM anti-HAV positivity in saliva and any of these parameter (p>0.05). Most of the patients (80%) were found to contain HAV-RNA in saliva, mainly at early acute phase (30th day). However, it was possible to demonstrate the HAV RNA presence in paired samples for more than 90 days, even after seroconversion. No significant relationship was observed between salivary HAV-RNA positivity and serum viral load, demonstrating that serum viral load is not predictive of HAV-RNA detection in saliva. Similar viral load was seen in paired samples (on average 104 copies/mL). These data demonstrate that the best diagnostic coverage can be achieved by salivary anti-HAV antibodies and HAV-RNA tests during 30-90 dpd. The long detection and high probability of specific-HAV antibodies positivity in saliva samples make the assessment of salivary antibodies a useful tool for diagnosis and epidemiological studies. The high frequency of HAV-RNA in saliva and the probability of detection of about 50%, during the first 30 dpd, demonstrate that saliva is also useful for molecular investigation of hepatitis A cases, mainly during the early course of infection. Therefore, the collection of saliva may provide a simple, cheap and non-invasive means of diagnosis, epidemiological surveys and monitoring of hepatitis A infection purposes.

Longitudinal Study of Hepatitis A Infection by Saliva Sampling: The Kinetics of HAV Markers in Saliva Revealed the Application of Saliva Tests for Hepatitis A Study

PubMed Central

Amado Leon, Luciane Almeida; de Almeida, Adilson José; de Paula, Vanessa Salete; Tourinho, Renata Santos; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Gaspar, Ana Maria Coimbra; Lewis-Ximenez, Lia Laura; Pinto, Marcelo Alves

2015-01-01

Despite the increasing numbers of studies investigating hepatitis A diagnostic through saliva, the frequency and the pattern of hepatitis A virus (HAV) markers in this fluid still remains unknown. To address this issue, we carried on a longitudinal study to examine the kinetics of HAV markers in saliva, in comparison with serum samples. The present study followed-up ten patients with acute hepatitis A infection during 180 days post diagnosis (dpd). Total anti-HAV was detected in paired serum and saliva samples until the end of the follow-up, showing a peak titer at 90th. However, total anti-HAV level was higher in serum than in saliva samples. This HAV marker showed a probability of 100% to be detected in both serum and saliva during 180 dpd. The IgM anti-HAV could be detected in saliva up to 150 dpd, showing the highest frequency at 30th, when it was detected in all individuals. During the first month of HAV infection, this acute HAV marker showed a detection probability of 100% in paired samples. The detection of IgM anti-HAV in saliva was not dependent on its level in serum, HAV-RNA detection and/or viral load, since no association was found between IgM anti-HAV positivity in saliva and any of these parameter (p>0.05). Most of the patients (80%) were found to contain HAV-RNA in saliva, mainly at early acute phase (30th day). However, it was possible to demonstrate the HAV RNA presence in paired samples for more than 90 days, even after seroconversion. No significant relationship was observed between salivary HAV-RNA positivity and serum viral load, demonstrating that serum viral load is not predictive of HAV-RNA detection in saliva. Similar viral load was seen in paired samples (on average 104 copies/mL). These data demonstrate that the best diagnostic coverage can be achieved by salivary anti-HAV antibodies and HAV-RNA tests during 30–90 dpd. The long detection and high probability of specific-HAV antibodies positivity in saliva samples make the assessment of salivary antibodies a useful tool for diagnosis and epidemiological studies. The high frequency of HAV-RNA in saliva and the probability of detection of about 50%, during the first 30 dpd, demonstrate that saliva is also useful for molecular investigation of hepatitis A cases, mainly during the early course of infection. Therefore, the collection of saliva may provide a simple, cheap and non-invasive means of diagnosis, epidemiological surveys and monitoring of hepatitis A infection purposes. PMID:26690904

Incipient fault detection study for advanced spacecraft systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milner, G. Martin; Black, Michael C.; Hovenga, J. Mike; Mcclure, Paul F.

1986-01-01

A feasibility study to investigate the application of vibration monitoring to the rotating machinery of planned NASA advanced spacecraft components is described. Factors investigated include: (1) special problems associated with small, high RPM machines; (2) application across multiple component types; (3) microgravity; (4) multiple fault types; (5) eight different analysis techniques including signature analysis, high frequency demodulation, cepstrum, clustering, amplitude analysis, and pattern recognition are compared; and (6) small sample statistical analysis is used to compare performance by computation of probability of detection and false alarm for an ensemble of repeated baseline and faulted tests. Both detection and classification performance are quantified. Vibration monitoring is shown to be an effective means of detecting the most important problem types for small, high RPM fans and pumps typical of those planned for the advanced spacecraft. A preliminary monitoring system design and implementation plan is presented.

Modeling of a bubble-memory organization with self-checking translators to achieve high reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Carter, W. C.; Hsieh, E. P.; Wadia, A. B.; Jessep, D. C., Jr.

1973-01-01

Study of the design and modeling of a highly reliable bubble-memory system that has the capabilities of: (1) correcting a single 16-adjacent bit-group error resulting from failures in a single basic storage module (BSM), and (2) detecting with a probability greater than 0.99 any double errors resulting from failures in BSM's. The results of the study justify the design philosophy adopted of employing memory data encoding and a translator to correct single group errors and detect double group errors to enhance the overall system reliability.

Assessing bat detectability and occupancy with multiple automated echolocation detectors

Treesearch

Marcos P. Gorresen; Adam C. Miles; Christopher M. Todd; Frank J. Bonaccorso; Theodore J. Weller

2008-01-01

Occupancy analysis and its ability to account for differential detection probabilities is important for studies in which detecting echolocation calls is used as a measure of bat occurrence and activity. We examined the feasibility of remotely acquiring bat encounter histories to estimate detection probability and occupancy. We used echolocation detectors coupled o...

Point count length and detection of forest neotropical migrant birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, D.K.; Smith, D.R.; Robbins, C.S.; Ralph, C. John; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1995-01-01

Comparisons of bird abundances among years or among habitats assume that the rates at which birds are detected and counted are constant within species. We use point count data collected in forests of the Mid-Atlantic states to estimate detection probabilities for Neotropical migrant bird species as a function of count length. For some species, significant differences existed among years or observers in both the probability of detecting the species and in the rate at which individuals are counted. We demonstrate the consequence that variability in species' detection probabilities can have on estimates of population change, and discuss ways for reducing this source of bias in point count studies.

Standard plane localization in ultrasound by radial component model and selective search.

PubMed

Ni, Dong; Yang, Xin; Chen, Xin; Chin, Chien-Ting; Chen, Siping; Heng, Pheng Ann; Li, Shengli; Qin, Jing; Wang, Tianfu

2014-11-01

Acquisition of the standard plane is crucial for medical ultrasound diagnosis. However, this process requires substantial experience and a thorough knowledge of human anatomy. Therefore it is very challenging for novices and even time consuming for experienced examiners. We proposed a hierarchical, supervised learning framework for automatically detecting the standard plane from consecutive 2-D ultrasound images. We tested this technique by developing a system that localizes the fetal abdominal standard plane from ultrasound video by detecting three key anatomical structures: the stomach bubble, umbilical vein and spine. We first proposed a novel radial component-based model to describe the geometric constraints of these key anatomical structures. We then introduced a novel selective search method which exploits the vessel probability algorithm to produce probable locations for the spine and umbilical vein. Next, using component classifiers trained by random forests, we detected the key anatomical structures at their probable locations within the regions constrained by the radial component-based model. Finally, a second-level classifier combined the results from the component detection to identify an ultrasound image as either a "fetal abdominal standard plane" or a "non- fetal abdominal standard plane." Experimental results on 223 fetal abdomen videos showed that the detection accuracy of our method was as high as 85.6% and significantly outperformed both the full abdomen and the separate anatomy detection methods without geometric constraints. The experimental results demonstrated that our system shows great promise for application to clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using fingerprint image quality to improve the identification performance of the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology Program

PubMed Central

Wein, Lawrence M.; Baveja, Manas

2005-01-01

Motivated by the difficulty of biometric systems to correctly match fingerprints with poor image quality, we formulate and solve a game-theoretic formulation of the identification problem in two settings: U.S. visa applicants are checked against a list of visa holders to detect visa fraud, and visitors entering the U.S. are checked against a watchlist of criminals and suspected terrorists. For three types of biometric strategies, we solve the game in which the U.S. Government chooses the strategy's optimal parameter values to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses the image quality to minimize the detection probability. At current inspector staffing levels at ports of entry, our model predicts that a quality-dependent two-finger strategy achieves a detection probability of 0.733, compared to 0.526 under the quality-independent two-finger strategy that is currently implemented at the U.S. border. Increasing the staffing level of inspectors offers only minor increases in the detection probability for these two strategies. Using more than two fingers to match visitors with poor image quality allows a detection probability of 0.949 under current staffing levels, but may require major changes to the current U.S. biometric program. The detection probabilities during visa application are ≈11–22% smaller than at ports of entry for all three strategies, but the same qualitative conclusions hold. PMID:15894628

Detection probability of cliff-nesting raptors during helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys in western Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booms, T.L.; Schempf, P.F.; McCaffery, B.J.; Lindberg, M.S.; Fuller, M.R.

2010-01-01

We conducted repeated aerial surveys for breeding cliff-nesting raptors on the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) in western Alaska to estimate detection probabilities of Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus), Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus), and also Common Ravens (Corvus corax). Using the program PRESENCE, we modeled detection histories of each species based on single species occupancy modeling. We used different observers during four helicopter replicate surveys in the Kilbuck Mountains and five fixed-wing replicate surveys in the Ingakslugwat Hills near Bethel, AK. During helicopter surveys, Gyrfalcons had the highest detection probability estimate (p^;p^ 0.79; SE 0.05), followed by Golden Eagles (p^=0.68; SE 0.05), Common Ravens (p^=0.45; SE 0.17), and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.10; SE 0.11). Detection probabilities from fixed-wing aircraft in the Ingakslugwat Hills were similar to those from the helicopter in the Kilbuck Mountains for Gyrfalcons and Golden Eagles, but were higher for Common Ravens (p^=0.85; SE 0.06) and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.42; SE 0.07). Fixed-wing aircraft provided detection probability estimates and SEs in the Ingakslugwat Hills similar to or better than those from helicopter surveys in the Kilbucks and should be considered for future cliff-nesting raptor surveys where safe, low-altitude flight is possible. Overall, detection probability varied by observer experience and in some cases, by study area/aircraft type.

Using fingerprint image quality to improve the identification performance of the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology Program.

PubMed

Wein, Lawrence M; Baveja, Manas

2005-05-24

Motivated by the difficulty of biometric systems to correctly match fingerprints with poor image quality, we formulate and solve a game-theoretic formulation of the identification problem in two settings: U.S. visa applicants are checked against a list of visa holders to detect visa fraud, and visitors entering the U.S. are checked against a watchlist of criminals and suspected terrorists. For three types of biometric strategies, we solve the game in which the U.S. Government chooses the strategy's optimal parameter values to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses the image quality to minimize the detection probability. At current inspector staffing levels at ports of entry, our model predicts that a quality-dependent two-finger strategy achieves a detection probability of 0.733, compared to 0.526 under the quality-independent two-finger strategy that is currently implemented at the U.S. border. Increasing the staffing level of inspectors offers only minor increases in the detection probability for these two strategies. Using more than two fingers to match visitors with poor image quality allows a detection probability of 0.949 under current staffing levels, but may require major changes to the current U.S. biometric program. The detection probabilities during visa application are approximately 11-22% smaller than at ports of entry for all three strategies, but the same qualitative conclusions hold.

A comparison of survey methods for documenting presence of Myotis leibii (Eastern Small-Footed Bats) at roosting areas in Western Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huth, John K.; Silvis, Alexander; Moosman, Paul R.; Ford, W. Mark; Sweeten, Sara E.

2015-01-01

Many aspects of foraging and roosting habitat of Myotis leibii (Eastern Small-Footed Bat), an emergent rock roosting-obligate, are poorly described. Previous comparisons of effectiveness of acoustic sampling and mist-net captures have not included Eastern Small-Footed Bat. Habitat requirements of this species differ from congeners in the region, and it is unclear whether survey protocols developed for other species are applicable. Using data from three overlapping studies at two sampling sites in western Virginia’s central Appalachian Mountains, detection probabilities were examined for three survey methods (acoustic surveys with automated identification of calls, visual searches of rock crevices, and mist-netting) for use in the development of “best practices” for future surveys and monitoring. Observer effects were investigated using an expanded version of visual search data. Results suggested that acoustic surveys with automated call identification are not effective for documenting presence of Eastern Small-Footed Bats on talus slopes (basal detection rate of 0%) even when the species is known to be present. The broadband, high frequency echolocation calls emitted by Eastern Small-Footed Bat may be prone to attenuation by virtue of their high frequencies, and these factors, along with signal reflection, lower echolocation rates or possible misidentification to other bat species over talus slopes may all have contributed to poor acoustic survey success. Visual searches and mist-netting of emergent rock had basal detection probabilities of 91% and 75%, respectively. Success of visual searches varied among observers, but detection probability improved with practice. Additionally, visual searches were considerably more economical than mist-netting.

Clinical implementation and failure mode and effects analysis of HDR skin brachytherapy using Valencia and Leipzig surface applicators.

PubMed

Sayler, Elaine; Eldredge-Hindy, Harriet; Dinome, Jessie; Lockamy, Virginia; Harrison, Amy S

2015-01-01

The planning procedure for Valencia and Leipzig surface applicators (VLSAs) (Nucletron, Veenendaal, The Netherlands) differs substantially from CT-based planning; the unfamiliarity could lead to significant errors. This study applies failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to high-dose-rate (HDR) skin brachytherapy using VLSAs to ensure safety and quality. A multidisciplinary team created a protocol for HDR VLSA skin treatments and applied FMEA. Failure modes were identified and scored by severity, occurrence, and detectability. The clinical procedure was then revised to address high-scoring process nodes. Several key components were added to the protocol to minimize risk probability numbers. (1) Diagnosis, prescription, applicator selection, and setup are reviewed at weekly quality assurance rounds. Peer review reduces the likelihood of an inappropriate treatment regime. (2) A template for HDR skin treatments was established in the clinic's electronic medical record system to standardize treatment instructions. This reduces the chances of miscommunication between the physician and planner as well as increases the detectability of an error. (3) A screen check was implemented during the second check to increase detectability of an error. (4) To reduce error probability, the treatment plan worksheet was designed to display plan parameters in a format visually similar to the treatment console display, facilitating data entry and verification. (5) VLSAs are color coded and labeled to match the electronic medical record prescriptions, simplifying in-room selection and verification. Multidisciplinary planning and FMEA increased detectability and reduced error probability during VLSA HDR brachytherapy. This clinical model may be useful to institutions implementing similar procedures. Copyright © 2015 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence for a seismic activity mainly constituted of hybrid events at Cayambe volcano, Ecuador. Interpretation in a iced-domes volcano context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillier, Bertrand; Chatelain, Jean-Luc

2006-06-01

The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as 'aborted' HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).

Modelling detectability of kiore (Rattus exulans) on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands, to inform possible eradication and monitoring efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, A.A.Y.; Stanford, J.W.; Wiewel, A.S.; Rodda, G.H.

2011-01-01

Estimating the detection probability of introduced organisms during the pre-monitoring phase of an eradication effort can be extremely helpful in informing eradication and post-eradication monitoring efforts, but this step is rarely taken. We used data collected during 11 nights of mark-recapture sampling on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands, to estimate introduced kiore (Rattus exulans Peale) density and detection probability, and evaluated factors affecting detectability to help inform possible eradication efforts. Modelling of 62 captures of 48 individuals resulted in a model-averaged density estimate of 55 kiore/ha. Kiore detection probability was best explained by a model allowing neophobia to diminish linearly (i.e. capture probability increased linearly) until occasion 7, with additive effects of sex and cumulative rainfall over the prior 48 hours. Detection probability increased with increasing rainfall and females were up to three times more likely than males to be trapped. In this paper, we illustrate the type of information that can be obtained by modelling mark-recapture data collected during pre-eradication monitoring and discuss the potential of using these data to inform eradication and posteradication monitoring efforts. ?? New Zealand Ecological Society.

Maximizing detection probability of Wetland-dependent birds during point-count surveys in northwestern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, C.P.; Conway, C.J.; Smith, B.S.; Lewis, T.E.

2008-01-01

We conducted 262 call-broadcast point-count surveys (1-6 replicate surveys on each of 62 points) using standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocols between 31 May and 7 July 2006 on St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuge, an island off the northwest coast of Florida. We conducted double-blind multiple-observer surveys, paired morning and evening surveys, and paired morning and night surveys to examine the influence of call-broadcast and time of day on detection probability. Observer detection probability for all species pooled was 75% and was similar between passive (69%) and call-broadcast (65%) periods. Detection probability was higher on morning than evening (t = 3.0, P = 0.030) or night (t = 3.4, P = 0.042) surveys when we pooled all species. Detection probability was higher (but not significant for all species) on morning compared to evening or night surveys for all five focal species detected on surveys: Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), Clapper Rail (Rallus longirostris), Purple Gallinule (Porphyrula martinica), Common Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), and American Coot (Fulica americana). We detected more Least Bitterns (t = 2.4, P = 0.064) and Common Moorhens (t = 2.8, P = 0.026) on morning than evening surveys, and more Clapper Rails (t = 5.1, P = 0.014) on morning than night surveys.

Robust chemical and chemical-resistant material detection using hyper-spectral imager and a new bend interpolation and local scaling HSI sharpening method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hai-Wen; McGurr, Michael; Brickhouse, Mark

2015-05-01

We present new results from our ongoing research activity for chemical threat detection using hyper-spectral imager (HSI) detection techniques by detecting nontraditional threat spectral signatures of agent usage, such as protective equipment, coatings, paints, spills, and stains that are worn by human or on trucks or other objects. We have applied several current state-of-the-art HSI target detection methods such as Matched Filter (MF), Adaptive Coherence Estimator (ACE), Constrained Energy Minimization (CEM), and Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM). We are interested in detecting several chemical related materials: (a) Tyvek clothing is chemical resistance and Tyvek coveralls are one-piece garments for protecting human body from harmful chemicals, and (b) ammonium salts from background could be representative of spills from scrubbers or related to other chemical activities. The HSI dataset that we used for detection covers a chemical test field with more than 50 different kinds of chemicals, protective materials, coatings, and paints. Among them, there are four different kinds of Tyvek material, three types of ammonium salts, and one yellow jugs. The imagery cube data were collected by a HSI sensor with a spectral range of 400-2,500nm. Preliminary testing results are promising, and very high probability of detection (Pd) and low probability of false detection are achieved with the usage of full spectral range (400- 2,500nm). In the second part of this paper, we present our newly developed HSI sharpening technique. A new Band Interpolation and Local Scaling (BILS) method has been developed to improve HSI spatial resolution by 4-16 times with a low-cost high-resolution pen-chromatic camera and a RGB camera. Preliminary results indicate that this new technique is promising.

Making sense of the noise: The effect of hydrology on silver carp eDNA detection in the Chicago area waterway system.

PubMed

Song, Jeffery W; Small, Mitchell J; Casman, Elizabeth A

2017-12-15

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is an emerging tool for monitoring the spread of aquatic invasive species. One confounding factor when interpreting eDNA sampling evidence is that eDNA can be present in the water in the absence of living target organisms, originating from excreta, dead tissue, boats, or sewage effluent, etc. In the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS), electric fish dispersal barriers were built to prevent non-native Asian carp species from invading Lake Michigan, and yet Asian carp eDNA has been detected above the barriers sporadically since 2009. In this paper the influence of stream flow characteristics in the CAWS on the probability of invasive Asian carp eDNA detection in the CAWS from 2009 to 2012 was examined. In the CAWS, the direction of stream flow is mostly away from Lake Michigan, though there are infrequent reversals in flow direction towards Lake Michigan during dry spells. We find that the flow reversal volume into the Lake has a statistically significant positive relationship with eDNA detection probability, while other covariates, like gage height, precipitation, season, water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH and chlorophyll concentration do not. This suggests that stream flow direction is highly influential on eDNA detection in the CAWS and should be considered when interpreting eDNA evidence. We also find that the beta-binomial regression model provides a stronger fit for eDNA detection probability compared to a binomial regression model. This paper provides a statistical modeling framework for interpreting eDNA sampling evidence and for evaluating covariates influencing eDNA detection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systems Approach to Defeating Maritime Improvised Explosive Devices in U.S. Ports

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

DETECTION Pfi PROBABILITY OF FALSE IDENTIFICATION PHPK PROBABILITY OF HIT/PROBABILITY OF KILL PMA POST MISSION ANALYSIS PNNL PACIFIC...16 Naval Warfare Publication 27-2(Rev. B), Section 1.8.4.1(unclassified) 42 detection analysis is conducted...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Prepared

Anurans in a Subarctic Tundra Landscape Near Cape Churchill, Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiter, M.E.; Boal, C.W.; Andersen, D.E.

2008-01-01

Distribution, abundance, and habitat relationships of anurans inhabiting subarctic regions are poorly understood, and anuran monitoring protocols developed for temperate regions may not be applicable across large roadless areas of northern landscapes. In addition, arctic and subarctic regions of North America are predicted to experience changes in climate and, in some areas, are experiencing habitat alteration due to high rates of herbivory by breeding and migrating waterfowl. To better understand subarctic anuran abundance, distribution, and habitat associations, we conducted anuran calling surveys in the Cape Churchill region of Wapusk National Park, Manitoba, Canada, in 2004 and 2005. We conducted surveys along ~l-km transects distributed across three landscape types (coastal tundra, interior sedge meadow-tundra, and boreal forest-tundra interface) to estimate densities and probabilities of detection of Boreal Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris maculata) and Wood Frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus). We detected a Wood Frog or Boreal Chorus Frog on 22 (87%) of 26 transects surveyed, but probability of detection varied between years and species and among landscape types. Estimated densities of both species increased from the coastal zone inland toward the boreal forest edge. Our results suggest anurans occur across all three landscape types in our study area, but that species-specific spatial patterns exist in their abundances. Considerations for both spatial and temporal variation in abundance and detection probability need to be incorporated into surveys and monitoring programs for subarctic anurans.

In-reservoir behavior, dam passage, and downstream migration of juvenile Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead from Detroit Reservoir and Dam to Portland, Oregon, February 2013-February 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeman, John W.; Adams, Noah S.

2015-01-01

As part of the evaluations conducted at Detroit Dam, we continued to refine and improve methods for monitoring fish movements in the Willamette River. The goal was to develop stable, cost-effective, long-term monitoring arrays suitable for detection of any Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS)-tagged fish in the Willamette River. These data then could be used to estimate timing, migration rates, and survival of JSATS-tagged fish from various studies in the Willamette River Basin. The challenge, however, is that acoustic telemetry generally performs poorly in shallow, turbulent water, like that found in the Willamette River. We successfully designed, deployed, and maintained a series of monitoring sites near the Oregon cities of Salem, Wilsonville, and Portland. In the spring, detection probabilities at these sites ranged from 0.900 to 1.000. In the fall, the detection probabilities decreased and ranged from 0.526 to 1.000. The lower detection probabilities, particularly at the Salem site (0.526), were owing to loss of data caused by abnormally high flows as well as the 2013 Federal government shutdown, which prevented us from servicing the equipment. The monitoring sites that we installed seem to be robust and enable the efficient use of acoustic-tagged fish for studies of migration or survival in the Willamette River and similar environments.

Detection of sea otters in boat-based surveys of Prince William Sound, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Bodkin, James L.; Costa, Daniel P.

1995-01-01

Boat-based surveys have been commonly used to monitor sea otter populations, but there has been little quantitative work to evaluate detection biases that may affect these surveys. We used ground-based observers to investigate sea otter detection probabilities in a boat-based survey of Prince William Sound, Alaska. We estimated that 30% of the otters present on surveyed transects were not detected by boat crews. Approximately half (53%) of the undetected otters were missed because the otters left the transects, apparently in response to the approaching boat. Unbiased estimates of detection probabilities will be required for obtaining unbiased population estimates from boat-based surveys of sea otters. Therefore, boat-based surveys should include methods to estimate sea otter detection probabilities under the conditions specific to each survey. Unbiased estimation of detection probabilities with ground-based observers requires either that the ground crews detect all of the otters in observed subunits, or that there are no errors in determining which crews saw each detected otter. Ground-based observer methods may be appropriate in areas where nearly all of the sea otter habitat is potentially visible from ground-based vantage points.

Classification of change detection and change blindness from near-infrared spectroscopy signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hirokazu; Katura, Takusige

2011-08-01

Using a machine-learning classification algorithm applied to near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) signals, we classify a success (change detection) or a failure (change blindness) in detecting visual changes for a change-detection task. Five subjects perform a change-detection task, and their brain activities are continuously monitored. A support-vector-machine algorithm is applied to classify the change-detection and change-blindness trials, and correct classification probability of 70-90% is obtained for four subjects. Two types of temporal shapes in classification probabilities are found: one exhibiting a maximum value after the task is completed (postdictive type), and another exhibiting a maximum value during the task (predictive type). As for the postdictive type, the classification probability begins to increase immediately after the task completion and reaches its maximum in about the time scale of neuronal hemodynamic response, reflecting a subjective report of change detection. As for the predictive type, the classification probability shows an increase at the task initiation and is maximal while subjects are performing the task, predicting the task performance in detecting a change. We conclude that decoding change detection and change blindness from NIRS signal is possible and argue some future applications toward brain-machine interfaces.

Investigation of an Optimum Detection Scheme for a Star-Field Mapping System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldridge, M. D.; Credeur, L.

1970-01-01

An investigation was made to determine the optimum detection scheme for a star-field mapping system that uses coded detection resulting from starlight shining through specially arranged multiple slits of a reticle. The computer solution of equations derived from a theoretical model showed that the greatest probability of detection for a given star and background intensity occurred with the use of a single transparent slit. However, use of multiple slits improved the system's ability to reject the detection of undesirable lower intensity stars, but only by decreasing the probability of detection for lower intensity stars to be mapped. Also, it was found that the coding arrangement affected the root-mean-square star-position error and that detection is possible with error in the system's detected spin rate, though at a reduced probability.

Investigating prior probabilities in a multiple hypothesis test for use in space domain awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Tyler J.; Cain, Stephen C.

2016-05-01

The goal of this research effort is to improve Space Domain Awareness (SDA) capabilities of current telescope systems through improved detection algorithms. Ground-based optical SDA telescopes are often spatially under-sampled, or aliased. This fact negatively impacts the detection performance of traditionally proposed binary and correlation-based detection algorithms. A Multiple Hypothesis Test (MHT) algorithm has been previously developed to mitigate the effects of spatial aliasing. This is done by testing potential Resident Space Objects (RSOs) against several sub-pixel shifted Point Spread Functions (PSFs). A MHT has been shown to increase detection performance for the same false alarm rate. In this paper, the assumption of a priori probability used in a MHT algorithm is investigated. First, an analysis of the pixel decision space is completed to determine alternate hypothesis prior probabilities. These probabilities are then implemented into a MHT algorithm, and the algorithm is then tested against previous MHT algorithms using simulated RSO data. Results are reported with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and probability of detection, Pd, analysis.

Exploiting vibrational resonance in weak-signal detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yuhao; Pan, Yan; Duan, Fabing; Chapeau-Blondeau, François; Abbott, Derek

2017-08-01

In this paper, we investigate the first exploitation of the vibrational resonance (VR) effect to detect weak signals in the presence of strong background noise. By injecting a series of sinusoidal interference signals of the same amplitude but with different frequencies into a generalized correlation detector, we show that the detection probability can be maximized at an appropriate interference amplitude. Based on a dual-Dirac probability density model, we compare the VR method with the stochastic resonance approach via adding dichotomous noise. The compared results indicate that the VR method can achieve a higher detection probability for a wider variety of noise distributions.

Exploiting vibrational resonance in weak-signal detection.

PubMed

Ren, Yuhao; Pan, Yan; Duan, Fabing; Chapeau-Blondeau, François; Abbott, Derek

2017-08-01

In this paper, we investigate the first exploitation of the vibrational resonance (VR) effect to detect weak signals in the presence of strong background noise. By injecting a series of sinusoidal interference signals of the same amplitude but with different frequencies into a generalized correlation detector, we show that the detection probability can be maximized at an appropriate interference amplitude. Based on a dual-Dirac probability density model, we compare the VR method with the stochastic resonance approach via adding dichotomous noise. The compared results indicate that the VR method can achieve a higher detection probability for a wider variety of noise distributions.

Detecting and locating light atoms from high-resolution STEM images: The quest for a single optimal design.

PubMed

Gonnissen, J; De Backer, A; den Dekker, A J; Sijbers, J; Van Aert, S

2016-11-01

In the present paper, the optimal detector design is investigated for both detecting and locating light atoms from high resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (HR STEM) images. The principles of detection theory are used to quantify the probability of error for the detection of light atoms from HR STEM images. To determine the optimal experiment design for locating light atoms, use is made of the so-called Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB). It is investigated if a single optimal design can be found for both the detection and location problem of light atoms. Furthermore, the incoming electron dose is optimised for both research goals and it is shown that picometre range precision is feasible for the estimation of the atom positions when using an appropriate incoming electron dose under the optimal detector settings to detect light atoms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost efficient environmental survey paths for detecting continuous tracer discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alendal, G.

2017-07-01

Designing monitoring programs for detecting potential tracer discharges from unknown locations is challenging. The high variability of the environment may camouflage the anticipated anisotropic signal from a discharge, and there are a number of discharge scenarios. Monitoring operations may also be costly, constraining the number of measurements taken. By assuming that a discharge is active, and a prior belief on the most likely seep location, a method that uses Bayes' theorem combined with discharge footprint predictions is used to update the probability map. Measurement locations with highest reduction in the overall probability of a discharge to be active can be identified. The relative cost between reallocating and measurements can be taken into account. Three different strategies are suggested to enable cost efficient paths for autonomous vessels.

Adaptive aperture for Geiger mode avalanche photodiode flash ladar systems.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Han, Shaokun; Xia, Wenze; Lei, Jieyu

2018-02-01

Although the Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode (GM-APD) flash ladar system offers the advantages of high sensitivity and simple construction, its detection performance is influenced not only by the incoming signal-to-noise ratio but also by the absolute number of noise photons. In this paper, we deduce a hyperbolic approximation to estimate the noise-photon number from the false-firing percentage in a GM-APD flash ladar system under dark conditions. By using this hyperbolic approximation function, we introduce a method to adapt the aperture to reduce the number of incoming background-noise photons. Finally, the simulation results show that the adaptive-aperture method decreases the false probability in all cases, increases the detection probability provided that the signal exceeds the noise, and decreases the average ranging error per frame.

Adaptive aperture for Geiger mode avalanche photodiode flash ladar systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Liang; Han, Shaokun; Xia, Wenze; Lei, Jieyu

2018-02-01

Although the Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode (GM-APD) flash ladar system offers the advantages of high sensitivity and simple construction, its detection performance is influenced not only by the incoming signal-to-noise ratio but also by the absolute number of noise photons. In this paper, we deduce a hyperbolic approximation to estimate the noise-photon number from the false-firing percentage in a GM-APD flash ladar system under dark conditions. By using this hyperbolic approximation function, we introduce a method to adapt the aperture to reduce the number of incoming background-noise photons. Finally, the simulation results show that the adaptive-aperture method decreases the false probability in all cases, increases the detection probability provided that the signal exceeds the noise, and decreases the average ranging error per frame.

Do juries meet our expectations?

PubMed

Arkes, Hal R; Mellers, Barbara A

2002-12-01

Surveys of public opinion indicate that people have high expectations for juries. When it comes to serious crimes, most people want errors of convicting the innocent (false positives) or acquitting the guilty (false negatives) to fall well below 10%. Using expected utility theory, Bayes' Theorem, signal detection theory, and empirical evidence from detection studies of medical decision making, eyewitness testimony, and weather forecasting, we argue that the frequency of mistakes probably far exceeds these "tolerable" levels. We are not arguing against the use of juries. Rather, we point out that a closer look at jury decisions reveals a serious gap between what we expect from juries and what probably occurs. When deciding issues of guilt and/or punishing convicted criminals, we as a society should recognize and acknowledge the abundance of error.

Environmentally Adaptive UXO Detection and Classification Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

probability of false alarm ( Pfa ), as well as Receiver Op- erating Characteristic (ROC) curve and confusion matrix characteristics. The results of these...techniques at a false alarm probability of Pfa = 1× 10−3. X̃ = g(X). In this case, the problem remains invariant to the group of transformations G = { g : g(X...and observed target responses as well as the probability of detection versus SNR for both detection techniques at Pfa = 1× 10−3. with N = 128 and M = 50

Structural health monitoring and probability of detection estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsyth, David S.

2016-02-01

Structural health monitoring (SHM) methods are often based on nondestructive testing (NDT) sensors and are often proposed as replacements for NDT to lower cost and/or improve reliability. In order to take advantage of SHM for life cycle management, it is necessary to determine the Probability of Detection (POD) of the SHM system just as for traditional NDT to ensure that the required level of safety is maintained. Many different possibilities exist for SHM systems, but one of the attractive features of SHM versus NDT is the ability to take measurements very simply after the SHM system is installed. Using a simple statistical model of POD, some authors have proposed that very high rates of SHM system data sampling can result in high effective POD even in situations where an individual test has low POD. In this paper, we discuss the theoretical basis for determining the effect of repeated inspections, and examine data from SHM experiments against this framework to show how the effective POD from multiple tests can be estimated.

Irish study of high-density Schizophrenia families: Field methods and power to detect linkage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kendler, K.S.; Straub, R.E.; MacLean, C.J.

Large samples of multiplex pedigrees will probably be needed to detect susceptibility loci for schizophrenia by linkage analysis. Standardized ascertainment of such pedigrees from culturally and ethnically homogeneous populations may improve the probability of detection and replication of linkage. The Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families (ISHDSF) was formed from standardized ascertainment of multiplex schizophrenia families in 39 psychiatric facilities covering over 90% of the population in Ireland and Northern Ireland. We here describe a phenotypic sample and a subset thereof, the linkage sample. Individuals were included in the phenotypic sample if adequate diagnostic information, based on personal interview and/ormore » hospital record, was available. Only individuals with available DNA were included in the linkage sample. Inclusion of a pedigree into the phenotypic sample required at least two first, second, or third degree relatives with non-affective psychosis (NAP), one of whom had schizophrenia (S) or poor-outcome schizoaffective disorder (PO-SAD). Entry into the linkage sample required DNA samples on at least two individuals with NAP, of whom at least one had S or PO-SAD. Affection was defined by narrow, intermediate, and broad criteria. 75 refs., 6 tabs.« less

Nonlinear detection for a high rate extended binary phase shift keying system.

PubMed

Chen, Xian-Qing; Wu, Le-Nan

2013-03-28

The algorithm and the results of a nonlinear detector using a machine learning technique called support vector machine (SVM) on an efficient modulation system with high data rate and low energy consumption is presented in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance achieved by the SVM detector is comparable to that of a conventional threshold decision (TD) detector. The two detectors detect the received signals together with the special impacting filter (SIF) that can improve the energy utilization efficiency. However, unlike the TD detector, the SVM detector concentrates not only on reducing the BER of the detector, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs), which can be used as soft-inputs of the LDPC decoder. The complexity of this detector is considered in this paper by using four features and simplifying the decision function. In addition, a bandwidth efficient transmission is analyzed with both SVM and TD detector. The SVM detector is more robust to sampling rate than TD detector. We find that the SVM is suitable for extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) signal detection and can provide accurate posterior probability for LDPC decoding.

Nonlinear Detection for a High Rate Extended Binary Phase Shift Keying System

PubMed Central

Chen, Xian-Qing; Wu, Le-Nan

2013-01-01

The algorithm and the results of a nonlinear detector using a machine learning technique called support vector machine (SVM) on an efficient modulation system with high data rate and low energy consumption is presented in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance achieved by the SVM detector is comparable to that of a conventional threshold decision (TD) detector. The two detectors detect the received signals together with the special impacting filter (SIF) that can improve the energy utilization efficiency. However, unlike the TD detector, the SVM detector concentrates not only on reducing the BER of the detector, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs), which can be used as soft-inputs of the LDPC decoder. The complexity of this detector is considered in this paper by using four features and simplifying the decision function. In addition, a bandwidth efficient transmission is analyzed with both SVM and TD detector. The SVM detector is more robust to sampling rate than TD detector. We find that the SVM is suitable for extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) signal detection and can provide accurate posterior probability for LDPC decoding. PMID:23539034

The importance of crossroads in faecal marking behaviour of the wolves (Canis lupus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barja, Isabel; Miguel, Francisco Javier; Bárcena, Felipe

2004-10-01

For wolves (Canis lupus) scats play an important function in territorial marking behaviour. Depositing scats at strategic sites such as crossroads and on conspicuous substrates probably increases their effectiveness as visual and olfactory marks. It is therefore likely that scats will be deposited, and will accumulate, at particular crossroads where the probability of being detected by other wolves is greatest. To check this hypothesis, a wolf population in NW Spain was studied for two consecutive years, from May 1998 to March 2000, and the spatial distribution of 311 scats detected along roads (both at and away from crossroads) was analysed. This study was conducted over an area of 12,000 ha in Montes do Invernadeiro Natural Park. The results confirm that wolves preferably deposit their scats at crossroads (60.1%) and on conspicuous substrates (72.1%). Significantly more scats were found at intersections with numerous, easily passable roads connecting distant territories. Thus, wolves preferably deposit their faeces at crossroads with high accessibility and driveability. The larger the surface area of the crossroads, the more scats were found. Crossroads are therefore highly strategic points that facilitate the detection of scats.

Developing Gyrfalcon surveys and monitoring for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Mark R.; Schempf, Philip F.; Booms, Travis L.

2011-01-01

We developed methods to monitor the status of Gyrfalcons in Alaska. Results of surveys and monitoring will be informative for resource managers and will be useful for studying potential changes in ecological communities of the high latitudes. We estimated that the probability of detecting a Gyrfalcon at an occupied nest site was between 64% and 87% depending on observer experience and aircraft type (fixed-wing or helicopter). The probability of detection is an important factor for estimating occupancy of nesting areas, and occupancy can be used as a metric for monitoring species' status. We conclude that surveys of nesting habitat to monitor occupancy during the breeding season are practical because of the high probability of seeing a Gyrfalcon from aircraft. Aerial surveys are effective for searching sample plots or index areas in the expanse of the Alaskan terrain. Furthermore, several species of cliff-nesting birds can be surveyed concurrently from aircraft. Occupancy estimation also can be applied using data from other field search methods (e.g., from boats) that have proven useful in Alaska. We believe a coordinated broad-scale, inter-agency, collaborative approach is necessary in Alaska. Monitoring can be facilitated by collating and archiving each set of results in a secure universal repository to allow for statewide meta-analysis.

Breast MRI: patterns of utilization and impact on patient management in the community hospital setting.

PubMed

Lobrano, Mary Beth; Stolier, Alan; L'Hoste, Robert; Luttrell, Carol Anne

2012-01-01

The objective of our study was to investigate the indications for breast magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI, in our community hospital, determine how many probably benign MRI findings were malignant at follow-up, determine how many cancers were identified by MRI in screening patients, and evaluate the utility of MRI for surgical planning and problem-solving. Five hundred twenty-eight contrast-enhanced MRI's of the breast in 434 patients were retrospectively reviewed. MRI images/reports were compared to surgical pathology reports and the results of follow-up studies. Screening was the most common indication for breast MRI in our patient population. Five percent of findings termed "probably benign" on MRI proved to be malignant at follow-up. Eight malignancies were detected in six of 202 screened patients. Ten malignancies were diagnosed in 66 patients referred to MRI for problem-solving. In two of 74 patients with known breast cancer, an unsuspected ipsilateral cancer was identified on MRI. MRI proved useful in the community hospital setting for screening high-risk patients and problem-solving. The rate of malignancy in probably benign MRI findings was higher than the corresponding rate in mammography. The detection of additional ipsilateral and contralateral cancers in pre-operative patients with known breast cancer was not as high as expected, based on prior studies.

Deficit of Wide Binaries in the η Chamaeleontis Young Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandeker, Alexis; Jayawardhana, Ray; Khavari, Parandis; Haisch, Karl E., Jr.; Mardones, Diego

2006-12-01

We have carried out a sensitive high-resolution imaging survey of stars in the young (6-8 Myr), nearby (97 pc) compact cluster around η Chamaeleontis to search for stellar and substellar companions. Our data were obtained using the NACO adaptive optics system on the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT). Given its youth and proximity, any substellar companions are expected to be luminous, especially in the near-infrared, and thus easier to detect next to their parent stars. Here, we present VLT NACO adaptive optics imaging with companion detection limits for 17 η Cha cluster members, and follow-up VLT ISAAC near-infrared spectroscopy for companion candidates. The widest binary detected is ~0.2", corresponding to the projected separation 20 AU, despite our survey being sensitive down to substellar companions outside 0.3", and planetary-mass objects outside 0.5". This implies that the stellar companion probability outside 0.3" and the brown dwarf companion probability outside 0.5" are less than 0.16 with 95% confidence. We compare the wide binary frequency of η Cha to that of the similarly aged TW Hydrae association and estimate the statistical likelihood that the wide binary probability is equal in both groups to be less than 2×10-4. Even though the η Cha cluster is relatively dense, stellar encounters in its present configuration cannot account for the relative deficit of wide binaries. We thus conclude that the difference in wide binary probability in these two groups provides strong evidence for multiplicity properties being dependent on environment. In two appendices we derive the projected separation probability distribution for binaries, used to constrain physical separations from observed projected separations, and summarize statistical tools useful for multiplicity studies.

A Violation of the Conditional Independence Assumption in the Two-High-Threshold Model of Recognition Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Tina; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.

2015-01-01

The 2-high-threshold (2HT) model of recognition memory assumes that test items result in distinct internal states: they are either detected or not, and the probability of responding at a particular confidence level that an item is "old" or "new" depends on the state-response mapping parameters. The mapping parameters are…

High effective algorithm of the detection and identification of substance using the noisy reflected THz pulse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trofimov, Vyacheslav A.; Varentsova, Svetlana A.; Trofimov, Vladislav V.; Tikhomirov, Vasily V.

2015-08-01

Principal limitations of the standard THz-TDS method for the detection and identification are demonstrated under real conditions (at long distance of about 3.5 m and at a high relative humidity more than 50%) using neutral substances thick paper bag, paper napkins and chocolate. We show also that the THz-TDS method detects spectral features of dangerous substances even if the THz signals were measured in laboratory conditions (at distance 30-40 cm from the receiver and at a low relative humidity less than 2%); silicon-based semiconductors were used as the samples. However, the integral correlation criteria, based on SDA method, allows us to detect the absence of dangerous substances in the neutral substances. The discussed algorithm shows high probability of the substance identification and a reliability of realization in practice, especially for security applications and non-destructive testing.

Periodic Application of Concurrent Error Detection in Processor Array Architectures. PhD. Thesis -

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Paul Peichuan

1993-01-01

Processor arrays can provide an attractive architecture for some applications. Featuring modularity, regular interconnection and high parallelism, such arrays are well-suited for VLSI/WSI implementations, and applications with high computational requirements, such as real-time signal processing. Preserving the integrity of results can be of paramount importance for certain applications. In these cases, fault tolerance should be used to ensure reliable delivery of a system's service. One aspect of fault tolerance is the detection of errors caused by faults. Concurrent error detection (CED) techniques offer the advantage that transient and intermittent faults may be detected with greater probability than with off-line diagnostic tests. Applying time-redundant CED techniques can reduce hardware redundancy costs. However, most time-redundant CED techniques degrade a system's performance.

Multistatic GNSS Receiver Array for Passive Air Surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachtl, Stefan; Koch, Volker; Westphal, Robert; Schmidt, Lorenz-Peter

2016-03-01

The performance of a passive air surveillance sensor based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is mainly limited by the receiver noise efficiency, the achievable signal processing gain and the radar cross section (RCS) of an airplane. For surveillance applications large detection ranges as well as a high probability of detection are crucial parameters. Due to the very low GNSS signal powers received on the earth's surface, high radar cross sections are mandatory to achieve detection ranges for airplanes at some kilometers distance. This paper will discuss a multistatic transmitter and receiver arrangement, which is indispensable to get a reasonable detection rate with respect to a hemispheric field of view. The strong performance dependency of such a sensor on the number of transmitters and receivers will be shown by means of some exemplary simulation results.

Occurrence and implications of methyl tert-butyl ether and gasoline hydrocarbons in ground water and source water in the United States and in drinking water in 12 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, 1993-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moran, Michael J.; Zogorski, John S.; Squillace, Paul J.

2004-01-01

The occurrence and implications of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and gasoline hydrocarbons were examined in three surveys of water quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey?one national-scale survey of ground water, one national-scale survey of source water from ground water, and one regional-scale survey of drinking water from ground water. The overall detection frequency of MTBE in all three surveys was similar to the detection frequencies of some other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that have much longer production and use histories in the United States. The detection frequency of MTBE was higher in drinking water and lower in source water and ground water. However, when the data for ground water and source water were limited to the same geographic extent as drinking-water data, the detection frequencies of MTBE were comparable to the detection frequency of MTBE in drinking water. In all three surveys, the detection frequency of any gasoline hydrocarbon was less than the detection frequency of MTBE. No concentration of MTBE in source water exceeded the lower limit of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Drinking-Water Advisory of 20 ?g/L (micrograms per liter). One concentration of MTBE in ground water exceeded 20 ?g/L, and 0.9 percent of drinking-water samples exceeded 20 ?g/L. The overall detection frequency of MTBE relative to other widely used VOCs indicates that MTBE is an important concern with respect to ground-water management. The probability of detecting MTBE was strongly associated with population density, use of MTBE in gasoline, and recharge, and weakly associated with density of leaking underground storage tanks, soil permeability, and aquifer consolidation. Only concentrations of MTBE above 0.5 ?g/L were associated with dissolved oxygen. Ground water underlying areas with high population density, ground water underlying areas where MTBE is used as a gasoline oxygenate, and ground water underlying areas with high recharge has a greater probability of MTBE contamination. Ground water from public-supply wells and shallow ground water underlying urban land-use areas has a greater probability of MTBE contamination compared to ground water from domestic wells and ground water underlying rural land-use areas.

Odor detection of mixtures of homologous carboxylic acids and coffee aroma compounds by humans.

PubMed

Miyazawa, Toshio; Gallagher, Michele; Preti, George; Wise, Paul M

2009-11-11

Mixture summation among homologous carboxylic acids, that is, the relationship between detection probabilities for mixtures and detection probabilities for their unmixed components, varies with similarity in carbon-chain length. The current study examined detection of acetic, butyric, hexanoic, and octanoic acids mixed with three other model odorants that differ greatly from the acids in both structure and odor character, namely, 2-hydroxy-3-methylcyclopent-2-en-1-one, furan-2-ylmethanethiol, and (3-methyl-3-sulfanylbutyl) acetate. Psychometric functions were measured for both single compounds and binary mixtures (2 of 5, forced-choice method). An air dilution olfactometer delivered stimuli, with vapor-phase calibration using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Across the three odorants that differed from the acids, acetic and butyric acid showed approximately additive (or perhaps even supra-additive) summation at low perithreshold concentrations, but subadditive interactions at high perithreshold concentrations. In contrast, the medium-chain acids showed subadditive interactions across a wide range of concentrations. Thus, carbon-chain length appears to influence not only summation with other carboxylic acids but also summation with at least some unrelated compounds.

Occurrence and lung cancer probability of new solid nodules at incidence screening with low-dose CT: analysis of data from the randomised, controlled NELSON trial.

PubMed

Walter, Joan E; Heuvelmans, Marjolein A; de Jong, Pim A; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; van Ooijen, Peter M A; Peters, Robin B; Ten Haaf, Kevin; Yousaf-Khan, Uraujh; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; de Bock, Geertruida H; Mali, Willem; Groen, Harry J M; de Koning, Harry J; Oudkerk, Matthijs

2016-07-01

US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and their probability of being lung cancer at incidence screening rounds in the Dutch-Belgian Randomized Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NELSON). In the ongoing, multicentre, randomised controlled NELSON trial, between Dec 23, 2003, and July 6, 2006, 15 822 participants who had smoked at least 15 cigarettes a day for more than 25 years or ten cigarettes a day for more than 30 years and were current smokers, or had quit smoking less than 10 years ago, were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either screening with low-dose CT (n=7915) or no screening (n=7907). From Jan 28, 2004, to Dec 18, 2006, 7557 individuals underwent baseline screening with low-dose CT; 7295 participants underwent second and third screening rounds. We included all participants with solid non-calcified nodules, registered by the NELSON radiologists as new or smaller than 15 mm(3) (study detection limit) at previous screens. Nodule volume was generated semiautomatically by software. We calculated the maximum volume doubling time for nodules with an estimated percentage volume change of 25% or more, representing the minimum growth rate for the time since the previous scan. Lung cancer diagnosis was based on histology, and benignity was based on histology or stable size for at least 2 years. The NELSON trial is registered at trialregister.nl, number ISRCTN63545820. We analysed data for participants with at least one solid non-calcified nodule at the second or third screening round. In the two incidence screening rounds, the NELSON radiologists registered 1222 new solid nodules in 787 (11%) participants. A new solid nodule was lung cancer in 49 (6%) participants with new solid nodules and, in total, 50 lung cancers were found, representing 4% of all new solid nodules. 34 (68%) lung cancers were diagnosed at stage I. Nodule volume had a high discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating curve 0·795 [95% CI 0·728-0·862]; p<0·0001). Nodules smaller than 27 mm(3) had a low probability of lung cancer (two [0·5%] of 417 nodules; lung cancer probability 0·5% [95% CI 0·0-1·9]), nodules with a volume of 27 mm(3) up to 206 mm(3) had an intermediate probability (17 [3·1%] of 542 nodules; lung cancer probability 3·1% [1·9-5·0]), and nodules of 206 mm(3) or greater had a high probability (29 [16·9%] of 172 nodules; lung cancer probability 16·9% [12·0-23·2]). A volume cutoff value of 27 mm(3) or greater had more than 95% sensitivity for lung cancer. Our study shows that new solid nodules are detected at each screening round in 5-7% of individuals who undergo screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT. These new nodules have a high probability of malignancy even at a small size. These findings should be considered in future screening guidelines, and new solid nodules should be followed up more aggressively than nodules detected at baseline screening. Zorgonderzoek Nederland Medische Wetenschappen and Koningin Wilhelmina Fonds Kankerbestrijding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bird Radar Validation in the Field by Time-Referencing Line-Transect Surveys

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; Baptist, Martin J.; Ens, Bruno J.; Krijgsveld, Karen L.; van Loon, E. Emiel

2013-01-01

Track-while-scan bird radars are widely used in ornithological studies, but often the precise detection capabilities of these systems are unknown. Quantification of radar performance is essential to avoid observational biases, which requires practical methods for validating a radar’s detection capability in specific field settings. In this study a method to quantify the detection capability of a bird radar is presented, as well a demonstration of this method in a case study. By time-referencing line-transect surveys, visually identified birds were automatically linked to individual tracks using their transect crossing time. Detection probabilities were determined as the fraction of the total set of visual observations that could be linked to radar tracks. To avoid ambiguities in assigning radar tracks to visual observations, the observer’s accuracy in determining a bird’s transect crossing time was taken into account. The accuracy was determined by examining the effect of a time lag applied to the visual observations on the number of matches found with radar tracks. Effects of flight altitude, distance, surface substrate and species size on the detection probability by the radar were quantified in a marine intertidal study area. Detection probability varied strongly with all these factors, as well as species-specific flight behaviour. The effective detection range for single birds flying at low altitude for an X-band marine radar based system was estimated at ∼1.5 km. Within this range the fraction of individual flying birds that were detected by the radar was 0.50±0.06 with a detection bias towards higher flight altitudes, larger birds and high tide situations. Besides radar validation, which we consider essential when quantification of bird numbers is important, our method of linking radar tracks to ground-truthed field observations can facilitate species-specific studies using surveillance radars. The methodology may prove equally useful for optimising tracking algorithms. PMID:24066103

Bird radar validation in the field by time-referencing line-transect surveys.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; Baptist, Martin J; Ens, Bruno J; Krijgsveld, Karen L; van Loon, E Emiel

2013-01-01

Track-while-scan bird radars are widely used in ornithological studies, but often the precise detection capabilities of these systems are unknown. Quantification of radar performance is essential to avoid observational biases, which requires practical methods for validating a radar's detection capability in specific field settings. In this study a method to quantify the detection capability of a bird radar is presented, as well a demonstration of this method in a case study. By time-referencing line-transect surveys, visually identified birds were automatically linked to individual tracks using their transect crossing time. Detection probabilities were determined as the fraction of the total set of visual observations that could be linked to radar tracks. To avoid ambiguities in assigning radar tracks to visual observations, the observer's accuracy in determining a bird's transect crossing time was taken into account. The accuracy was determined by examining the effect of a time lag applied to the visual observations on the number of matches found with radar tracks. Effects of flight altitude, distance, surface substrate and species size on the detection probability by the radar were quantified in a marine intertidal study area. Detection probability varied strongly with all these factors, as well as species-specific flight behaviour. The effective detection range for single birds flying at low altitude for an X-band marine radar based system was estimated at ~1.5 km. Within this range the fraction of individual flying birds that were detected by the radar was 0.50 ± 0.06 with a detection bias towards higher flight altitudes, larger birds and high tide situations. Besides radar validation, which we consider essential when quantification of bird numbers is important, our method of linking radar tracks to ground-truthed field observations can facilitate species-specific studies using surveillance radars. The methodology may prove equally useful for optimising tracking algorithms.

Rapid Target Detection in High Resolution Remote Sensing Images Using Yolo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.; Chen, X.; Gao, Y.; Li, Y.

2018-04-01

Object detection in high resolution remote sensing images is a fundamental and challenging problem in the field of remote sensing imagery analysis for civil and military application due to the complex neighboring environments, which can cause the recognition algorithms to mistake irrelevant ground objects for target objects. Deep Convolution Neural Network(DCNN) is the hotspot in object detection for its powerful ability of feature extraction and has achieved state-of-the-art results in Computer Vision. Common pipeline of object detection based on DCNN consists of region proposal, CNN feature extraction, region classification and post processing. YOLO model frames object detection as a regression problem, using a single CNN predicts bounding boxes and class probabilities in an end-to-end way and make the predict faster. In this paper, a YOLO based model is used for object detection in high resolution sensing images. The experiments on NWPU VHR-10 dataset and our airport/airplane dataset gain from GoogleEarth show that, compare with the common pipeline, the proposed model speeds up the detection process and have good accuracy.

Detection and plant monitoring programs: lessons from an intensive survey of Asclepias meadii with five observers.

PubMed

Alexander, Helen M; Reed, Aaron W; Kettle, W Dean; Slade, Norman A; Bodbyl Roels, Sarah A; Collins, Cathy D; Salisbury, Vaughn

2012-01-01

Monitoring programs, where numbers of individuals are followed through time, are central to conservation. Although incomplete detection is expected with wildlife surveys, this topic is rarely considered with plants. However, if plants are missed in surveys, raw count data can lead to biased estimates of population abundance and vital rates. To illustrate, we had five independent observers survey patches of the rare plant Asclepias meadii at two prairie sites. We analyzed data with two mark-recapture approaches. Using the program CAPTURE, the estimated number of patches equaled the detected number for a burned site, but exceeded detected numbers by 28% for an unburned site. Analyses of detected patches using Huggins models revealed important effects of observer, patch state (flowering/nonflowering), and patch size (number of stems) on probabilities of detection. Although some results were expected (i.e. greater detection of flowering than nonflowering patches), the importance of our approach is the ability to quantify the magnitude of detection problems. We also evaluated the degree to which increased observer numbers improved detection: smaller groups (3-4 observers) generally found 90 - 99% of the patches found by all five people, but pairs of observers or single observers had high error and detection depended on which individuals were involved. We conclude that an intensive study at the start of a long-term monitoring study provides essential information about probabilities of detection and what factors cause plants to be missed. This information can guide development of monitoring programs.

Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores

PubMed Central

Harmsen, Bart J.; Foster, Rebecca J.; Sanchez, Emma; Gutierrez-González, Carmina E.; Silver, Scott C.; Ostro, Linde E. T.; Kelly, Marcella J.; Kay, Elma; Quigley, Howard

2017-01-01

In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002–2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of ‘residents’ consistently present and a fluctuating layer of ‘transients’. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable ‘transient’ male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations. PMID:28658274

Probable transmission of Yersinia enterocolitica from a pet dog with diarrhoea to a 1-year-old infant.

PubMed

Hetem, D J; Pekelharing, M; Thijsen, S F T

2013-08-16

We report a highly probable case of transmission of a Yersinia enterocolitica from a pet puppy dog, adopted from a Spanish asylum, to a 1-year-old girl. After several weeks of diarrhoea, a PCR detecting enteropathogenic bacteria was performed on the faeces, revealing Y enterocolitica. Following cultures yielded a Y enterocolitica biotype 4, serotype O:3 in the faeces of the girl as well as puppy dog. Despite antibiotic treatment, symptoms and shedding of the organism in the faeces endured during a 2 month period.

Detection probability of EBPSK-MODEM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yu; Wu, Lenan

2016-07-01

Since the impacting filter-based receiver is able to transform phase modulation into amplitude peak, a simple threshold decision can detect the Extend-Binary Phase Shift Keying (EBPSK) modulated ranging signal in noise environment. In this paper, an analysis of the EBPSK-MODEM system output gives the probability density function for EBPSK modulated signals plus noise. The equation of detection probability (pd) for fluctuating and non-fluctuating targets has been deduced. Also, a comparison of the pd for the EBPSK-MODEM system and pulse radar receiver is made, and some results are plotted. Moreover, the probability curves of such system with several modulation parameters are analysed. When modulation parameter is not smaller than 6, the detection performance of EBPSK-MODEM system is more excellent than traditional radar system. In addition to theoretical considerations, computer simulations are provided for illustrating the performance.

A discrimination method for the detection of pneumonia using chest radiograph.

PubMed

Noor, Norliza Mohd; Rijal, Omar Mohd; Yunus, Ashari; Abu-Bakar, S A R

2010-03-01

This paper presents a statistical method for the detection of lobar pneumonia when using digitized chest X-ray films. Each region of interest was represented by a vector of wavelet texture measures which is then multiplied by the orthogonal matrix Q(2). The first two elements of the transformed vectors were shown to have a bivariate normal distribution. Misclassification probabilities were estimated using probability ellipsoids and discriminant functions. The result of this study recommends the detection of pneumonia by constructing probability ellipsoids or discriminant function using maximum energy and maximum column sum energy texture measures where misclassification probabilities were less than 0.15. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discriminating quantum-optical beam-splitter channels with number-diagonal signal states: Applications to quantum reading and target detection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nair, Ranjith

2011-09-15

We consider the problem of distinguishing, with minimum probability of error, two optical beam-splitter channels with unequal complex-valued reflectivities using general quantum probe states entangled over M signal and M' idler mode pairs of which the signal modes are bounced off the beam splitter while the idler modes are retained losslessly. We obtain a lower bound on the output state fidelity valid for any pure input state. We define number-diagonal signal (NDS) states to be input states whose density operator in the signal modes is diagonal in the multimode number basis. For such input states, we derive series formulas formore » the optimal error probability, the output state fidelity, and the Chernoff-type upper bounds on the error probability. For the special cases of quantum reading of a classical digital memory and target detection (for which the reflectivities are real valued), we show that for a given input signal photon probability distribution, the fidelity is minimized by the NDS states with that distribution and that for a given average total signal energy N{sub s}, the fidelity is minimized by any multimode Fock state with N{sub s} total signal photons. For reading of an ideal memory, it is shown that Fock state inputs minimize the Chernoff bound. For target detection under high-loss conditions, a no-go result showing the lack of appreciable quantum advantage over coherent state transmitters is derived. A comparison of the error probability performance for quantum reading of number state and two-mode squeezed vacuum state (or EPR state) transmitters relative to coherent state transmitters is presented for various values of the reflectances. While the nonclassical states in general perform better than the coherent state, the quantitative performance gains differ depending on the values of the reflectances. The experimental outlook for realizing nonclassical gains from number state transmitters with current technology at moderate to high values of the reflectances is argued to be good.« less

Modeling Disease Vector Occurrence when Detection Is Imperfect: Infestation of Amazonian Palm Trees by Triatomine Bugs at Three Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Abad-Franch, Fernando; Ferraz, Gonçalo; Campos, Ciro; Palomeque, Francisco S.; Grijalva, Mario J.; Aguilar, H. Marcelo; Miles, Michael A.

2010-01-01

Background Failure to detect a disease agent or vector where it actually occurs constitutes a serious drawback in epidemiology. In the pervasive situation where no sampling technique is perfect, the explicit analytical treatment of detection failure becomes a key step in the estimation of epidemiological parameters. We illustrate this approach with a study of Attalea palm tree infestation by Rhodnius spp. (Triatominae), the most important vectors of Chagas disease (CD) in northern South America. Methodology/Principal Findings The probability of detecting triatomines in infested palms is estimated by repeatedly sampling each palm. This knowledge is used to derive an unbiased estimate of the biologically relevant probability of palm infestation. We combine maximum-likelihood analysis and information-theoretic model selection to test the relationships between environmental covariates and infestation of 298 Amazonian palm trees over three spatial scales: region within Amazonia, landscape, and individual palm. Palm infestation estimates are high (40–60%) across regions, and well above the observed infestation rate (24%). Detection probability is higher (∼0.55 on average) in the richest-soil region than elsewhere (∼0.08). Infestation estimates are similar in forest and rural areas, but lower in urban landscapes. Finally, individual palm covariates (accumulated organic matter and stem height) explain most of infestation rate variation. Conclusions/Significance Individual palm attributes appear as key drivers of infestation, suggesting that CD surveillance must incorporate local-scale knowledge and that peridomestic palm tree management might help lower transmission risk. Vector populations are probably denser in rich-soil sub-regions, where CD prevalence tends to be higher; this suggests a target for research on broad-scale risk mapping. Landscape-scale effects indicate that palm triatomine populations can endure deforestation in rural areas, but become rarer in heavily disturbed urban settings. Our methodological approach has wide application in infectious disease research; by improving eco-epidemiological parameter estimation, it can also significantly strengthen vector surveillance-control strategies. PMID:20209149

Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

2004-01-01

A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

Mathematical modeling and assessment of microbial migration during the sprouting of alfalfa in trays in a nonuniformly contaminated seed batch using Enterobacter aerogenes as a surrogate for Salmonella Stanley.

PubMed

Liu, Bin; Schaffner, Donald W

2007-11-01

Raw seed sprouts have been implicated in several food poisoning outbreaks in the past 10 years. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommends that sprout growers use interventions (such as testing of spent irrigation water) to control the presence of pathogens in the finished product. During the sprouting process, initially low concentrations of pathogen may increase, and contamination may spread within a batch of sprouting seeds. A model of pathogen growth as a function of time and distance from the contamination spot during the sprouting of alfalfa in trays has been developed with Enterobacter aerogenes. The probability of detecting contamination was assessed by logistic regression at various time points and distances by sampling from sprouts or irrigation water. Our results demonstrate that microbial populations and possibility of detection were greatly reduced at distances of > or = 20 cm from the point of contamination in a seed batch during tray sprouting; however, the probability of detecting microbial contamination at distances less than 10 cm from the point of inoculation was almost 100% at the end of the sprouting process. Our results also show that sampling irrigation water, especially large volumes of water, is highly effective at detecting contamination: by collecting 100 ml of irrigation water for membrane filtration, the probability of detection was increased by three to four times during the first 6 h of seed germination. Our findings have quantified the degree to which a small level of contamination will spread throughout a tray of sprouting alfalfa seeds and subsequently be detected by either sprout or irrigation water sampling.

Activated recombinative desorption: A potential component in mechanisms of spacecraft glow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cross, J. B.

1985-01-01

The concept of activated recombination of atomic species on surfaces can explain the production of vibrationally and translationally excited desorbed molecular species. Equilibrium statistical mechanics predicts that the molecular quantum state distributions of desorbing molecules is a function of surface temperature only when the adsorption probability is unity and independent of initial collision conditions. In most cases, the adsorption probability is dependent upon initial conditions such as collision energy or internal quantum state distribution of impinging molecules. From detailed balance, such dynamical behavior is reflected in the internal quantum state distribution of the desorbing molecule. This concept, activated recombinative desorption, may offer a common thread in proposed mechanisms of spacecraft glow. Using molecular beam techniques and equipment available at Los Alamos, which includes a high translational energy 0-atom beam source, mass spectrometric detection of desorbed species, chemiluminescence/laser induced fluorescence detection of electronic and vibrationally excited reaction products, and Auger detection of surface adsorbed reaction products, a fundamental study of the gas surface chemistry underlying the glow process is proposed.

A comparator-hypothesis account of biased contingency detection.

PubMed

Vadillo, Miguel A; Barberia, Itxaso

2018-02-12

Our ability to detect statistical dependencies between different events in the environment is strongly biased by the number of coincidences between them. Even when there is no true covariation between a cue and an outcome, if the marginal probability of either of them is high, people tend to perceive some degree of statistical contingency between both events. The present paper explores the ability of the Comparator Hypothesis to explain the general pattern of results observed in this literature. Our simulations show that this model can account for the biasing effects of the marginal probabilities of cues and outcomes. Furthermore, the overall fit of the Comparator Hypothesis to a sample of experimental conditions from previous studies is comparable to that of the popular Rescorla-Wagner model. These results should encourage researchers to further explore and put to the test the predictions of the Comparator Hypothesis in the domain of biased contingency detection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The correct estimate of the probability of false detection of the matched filter in weak-signal detection problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vio, R.; Andreani, P.

2016-05-01

The reliable detection of weak signals is a critical issue in many astronomical contexts and may have severe consequences for determining number counts and luminosity functions, but also for optimizing the use of telescope time in follow-up observations. Because of its optimal properties, one of the most popular and widely-used detection technique is the matched filter (MF). This is a linear filter designed to maximise the detectability of a signal of known structure that is buried in additive Gaussian random noise. In this work we show that in the very common situation where the number and position of the searched signals within a data sequence (e.g. an emission line in a spectrum) or an image (e.g. a point-source in an interferometric map) are unknown, this technique, when applied in its standard form, may severely underestimate the probability of false detection. This is because the correct use of the MF relies upon a priori knowledge of the position of the signal of interest. In the absence of this information, the statistical significance of features that are actually noise is overestimated and detections claimed that are actually spurious. For this reason, we present an alternative method of computing the probability of false detection that is based on the probability density function (PDF) of the peaks of a random field. It is able to provide a correct estimate of the probability of false detection for the one-, two- and three-dimensional case. We apply this technique to a real two-dimensional interferometric map obtained with ALMA.

THE DISK-OUTFLOW SYSTEM IN THE S255IR AREA OF HIGH-MASS STAR FORMATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zinchenko, I.; Zemlyanukha, P.; Liu, S.-Y.

We report the results of our observations of the S255IR area with the Submillimeter Array (SMA) at 1.3 mm in the very extended configuration and at 0.8 mm in the compact configuration as well as with the IRAM 30 m at 0.8 mm. The best achieved angular resolution is about 0.4 arcsec. The dust continuum emission and several tens of molecular spectral lines are observed. The majority of the lines is detected only toward the S255IR-SMA1 clump, which represents a rotating structure (probably a disk) around the young massive star. The achieved angular resolution is still insufficient to make anymore » conclusions about the Keplerian or non-Keplerian character of the rotation. The temperature of the molecular gas reaches 130–180 K. The size of the clump is about 500 AU. The clump is strongly fragmented as follows from the low beam-filling factor. The mass of the hot gas is significantly lower than the mass of the central star. A strong DCN emission near the center of the hot core most probably indicates a presence of a relatively cold (≲80 K) and rather massive clump there. High-velocity emission is observed in the CO line as well as in lines of high-density tracers HCN, HCO{sup +}, CS and other molecules. The outflow morphology obtained from a combination of the SMA and IRAM 30 m data is significantly different from that derived from the SMA data alone. The CO emission detected with the SMA traces only one boundary of the outflow. The outflow is most probably driven by jet bow shocks created by episodic ejections from the center. We detected a dense high velocity clump associated apparently with one of the bow shocks. The outflow strongly affects the chemical composition of the surrounding medium.« less

Evaluation of a pretest scoring system (4Ts) for the diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia in a university hospital setting.

PubMed

Vatanparast, Rodina; Lantz, Sarah; Ward, Kristine; Crilley, Pamela Ann; Styler, Michael

2012-11-01

The initial diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is made on clinical grounds because the assays with the highest sensitivity (eg, heparin-platelet factor 4 antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA]) and specificity (eg, serotonin release assay) may not be readily available. The clinical utility of the pretest scoring system, the 4Ts, was developed and validated by Lo et al in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis in 2006. The pretest scoring system looks at the degree and timing of thrombocytopenia, thrombosis, and the possibility of other etiologies. Based on the 4T score, patients can be categorized as having a high, intermediate, or low probability of having HIT. We conducted a retrospective study of 100 consecutive patients who were tested for HIT during their hospitalization at Hahnemann University Hospital (Philadelphia, PA) in 2009. Of the 100 patients analyzed, 72, 23, and 5 patients had 4T pretest probability scores of low, intermediate, and high, respectively. A positive HIT ELISA (optical density > 1.0 unit) was detected in 0 of 72 patients (0%) in the low probability group, in 5 of 23 patients (22%) in the intermediate probability group, and in 2 of 5 patients (40%) in the high probability group. The average turnaround time for the HIT ELISA was 4 to 5 days. Fourteen (19%) of the 72 patients with a low pretest probability of HIT were treated with a direct thrombin inhibitor. Ten (71%) of the 14 patients in the low probability group treated with a direct thrombin inhibitor had a major complication of bleeding requiring blood transfusion support. In this retrospective study, a low 4T score showed 100% correlation with a negative HIT antibody assay. We recommend incorporating the 4T scoring system into institutional core measures when assessing a patient with suspected HIT, selecting only patients with intermediate to high probability for therapeutic intervention, which may translate into reduced morbidity and lower health care costs.

Maximum ikelihood estimation for the double-count method with independent observers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Lyman L.; Garner, Gerald W.

1996-01-01

Data collected under a double-count protocol during line transect surveys were analyzed using new maximum likelihood methods combined with Akaike's information criterion to provide estimates of the abundance of polar bear (Ursus maritimus Phipps) in a pilot study off the coast of Alaska. Visibility biases were corrected by modeling the detection probabilities using logistic regression functions. Independent variables that influenced the detection probabilities included perpendicular distance of bear groups from the flight line and the number of individuals in the groups. A series of models were considered which vary from (1) the simplest, where the probability of detection was the same for both observers and was not affected by either distance from the flight line or group size, to (2) models where probability of detection is different for the two observers and depends on both distance from the transect and group size. Estimation procedures are developed for the case when additional variables may affect detection probabilities. The methods are illustrated using data from the pilot polar bear survey and some recommendations are given for design of a survey over the larger Chukchi Sea between Russia and the United States.

Probability of detection evaluation results for railroad tank car nondestructive testing : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), Transportation Technology Center, Inc. (TTCI), and rail industry participants have : performed probability of detection (POD) assessments to evaluate nondestructive testing (NDT) technologies, which are : pr...

Gamma-Ray Emision from the Broad-Line Radio Galaxy 3C 111

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Robert C.; Kadler, Matthias; Tueller, Jack

2008-01-01

The broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111 has been suggested as the counterpart of the Gamma-ray source 3EGJ0416+3650. While 3C 111 meets most of the criteria for a high-probability identification, like a bright fla t-spectrum radio core and a blazarlike broadband SED, in the Third EG RET Catalog, the large positional offset of about 1.5 degrees put 3C1 11 outside the 99% probability region for 3EG J0416+3650, making this association questionable. We present a re-analysis of all available data for 3C111 from the EGRET archives, resulting in probable detection of high-energy Gamma-ray emission above 1000MeV from a position clo se to the nominal position of 3C 111, in two separate viewing periods (VPs), at a 3sigma level in each. A new source, GROJ0426+3747, appea rs to be present nearby, seen only in the >1000MeV data. For >100MeV, the data are in agreement with only one source (at the original cata log position) accounting for most of the EGRET-detected emission of 3 EGJ0416+3650. A follow-up Swift UVOT/XRT observation reveals one mode rately bright X-ray source in the error box of 3EGJ0416+3650, but bec ause of the large EGRET position uncertainty, it is not certain that the X-ray and Gamma-ray sources are associated. A Swift observation of GROJ0426+3747 detected no X.ray source nearby.

Potential for spatial displacement of Cook Inlet beluga whales by anthropogenic noise in critical habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Small, Robert J.; Brost, Brian M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Castellote, Manuel; Mondragon, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

The population of beluga whales in Cook Inlet, Alaska, USA, declined by nearly half in the mid-1990s, primarily from an unsustainable harvest, and was listed as endangered in 2008. In 2014, abundance was ~340 whales, and the population trend during 1999-2014 was -1.3% yr-1. Cook Inlet beluga whales are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts, and noise that has the potential to reduce communication and echolocation range considerably has been documented in critical habitat; thus, noise was ranked as a high potential threat in the Cook Inlet beluga Recovery Plan. The current recovery strategy includes research on effects of threats potentially limiting recovery, and thus we examined the potential impact of anthropogenic noise in critical habitat, specifically, spatial displacement. Using a subset of data on anthropogenic noise and beluga detections from a 5 yr acoustic study, we evaluated the influence of noise events on beluga occupancy probability. We used occupancy models, which account for factors that affect detection probability when estimating occupancy, the first application of these models to examine the potential impacts of anthropogenic noise on marine mammal behavior. Results were inconclusive, primarily because beluga detections were relatively infrequent. Even though noise metrics (sound pressure level and noise duration) appeared in high-ranking models as covariates for occupancy probability, the data were insufficient to indicate better predictive ability beyond those models that only included environmental covariates. Future studies that implement protocols designed specifically for beluga occupancy will be most effective for accurately estimating the effect of noise on beluga displacement.

Detecting background changes in environments with dynamic foreground by separating probability distribution function mixtures using Pearson's method of moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Colleen; Jordan, Jay; Carlson, Jeff

2007-02-01

This paper presents parameter estimation techniques useful for detecting background changes in a video sequence with extreme foreground activity. A specific application of interest is automated detection of the covert placement of threats (e.g., a briefcase bomb) inside crowded public facilities. We propose that a histogram of pixel intensity acquired from a fixed mounted camera over time for a series of images will be a mixture of two Gaussian functions: the foreground probability distribution function and background probability distribution function. We will use Pearson's Method of Moments to separate the two probability distribution functions. The background function can then be "remembered" and changes in the background can be detected. Subsequent comparisons of background estimates are used to detect changes. Changes are flagged to alert security forces to the presence and location of potential threats. Results are presented that indicate the significant potential for robust parameter estimation techniques as applied to video surveillance.

A generic nuclei detection method for histopathological breast images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kost, Henning; Homeyer, André; Bult, Peter; Balkenhol, Maschenka C. A.; van der Laak, Jeroen A. W. M.; Hahn, Horst K.

2016-03-01

The detection of cell nuclei plays a key role in various histopathological image analysis problems. Considering the high variability of its applications, we propose a novel generic and trainable detection approach. Adaption to specific nuclei detection tasks is done by providing training samples. A trainable deconvolution and classification algorithm is used to generate a probability map indicating the presence of a nucleus. The map is processed by an extended watershed segmentation step to identify the nuclei positions. We have tested our method on data sets with different stains and target nuclear types. We obtained F1-measures between 0.83 and 0.93.

Active interrogation using low-energy nuclear reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolak, Arlyn; Doyle, Barney; Leung, Ka-Ngo; Morse, Daniel; Provencio, Paula

2005-09-01

High-energy photons and neutrons can be used to interrogate for heavily shielded fissile materials inside sealed cargo containers by detecting their prompt and/or delayed fission signatures. The FIND (Fissmat Inspection for Nuclear Detection) active interrogation system is based on a dual neutron+gamma source that uses low-energy (< 500 keV) proton- or deuteron-induced nuclear reactions to produce high intensities of mono-energetic gamma rays and/or neutrons. The source can be operated in either pulsed (e.g., to detect delayed photofission neutrons and gammas) or continuous (e.g., detecting prompt fission signatures) modes. For the gamma-rays, the source target can be segmented to incorporate different (p,γ) isotopes for producing gamma-rays at selective energies, thereby improving the probability of detection. The design parameters for the FIND system are discussed and preliminary accelerator-based measurements of gamma and neutron yields, background levels, and fission signals for several target materials under consideration are presented.

Spatial patterns of breeding success of grizzly bears derived from hierarchical multistate models.

PubMed

Fisher, Jason T; Wheatley, Matthew; Mackenzie, Darryl

2014-10-01

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low-elevation wetlands or mid-elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy-herbaceous alpine ecotones-were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Amphibian Bioacoustics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob

Anuran amphibians (frogs and toads) of most of the 3,500 species that exist today are highly vocal animals. In most frogs, males will spend considerable energy on calling and incur sizeable predation risks and the females’ detection and localization of the calls of conspecific males is often a prerequisite for successful mating. Therefore, acoustic communication is evidently evolutionarily important in the anurans, and their auditory system is probably shaped by the selective pressures associated with production, detection and localization of the communication calls.

Optimizing probability of detection point estimate demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-04-01

The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using point estimate method. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. Traditionally largest flaw size in the set is considered to be a conservative estimate of the flaw size with minimum 90% probability and 95% confidence. The flaw size is denoted as α90/95PE. The paper investigates relationship between range of flaw sizes in relation to α90, i.e. 90% probability flaw size, to provide a desired PPD. The range of flaw sizes is expressed as a proportion of the standard deviation of the probability density distribution. Difference between median or average of the 29 flaws and α90 is also expressed as a proportion of standard deviation of the probability density distribution. In general, it is concluded that, if probability of detection increases with flaw size, average of 29 flaw sizes would always be larger than or equal to α90 and is an acceptable measure of α90/95PE. If NDE technique has sufficient sensitivity and signal-to-noise ratio, then the 29 flaw-set can be optimized to meet requirements of minimum required PPD, maximum allowable POF, requirements on flaw size tolerance about mean flaw size and flaw size detectability requirements. The paper provides procedure for optimizing flaw sizes in the point estimate demonstration flaw-set.

A two-stage spectrum sensing scheme based on energy detection and a novel multitaper method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Pei-Han; Li, Zan; Si, Jiang-Bo; Xiong, Tian-Yi

2015-04-01

Wideband spectrum sensing has drawn much attention in recent years since it provides more opportunities to the secondary users. However, wideband spectrum sensing requires a long time and a complex mechanism at the sensing terminal. A two-stage wideband spectrum sensing scheme is considered to proceed spectrum sensing with low time consumption and high performance to tackle this predicament. In this scheme, a novel multitaper spectrum sensing (MSS) method is proposed to mitigate the poor performance of energy detection (ED) in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) region. The closed-form expression of the decision threshold is derived based on the Neyman-Pearson criterion and the probability of detection in the Rayleigh fading channel is analyzed. An optimization problem is formulated to maximize the probability of detection of the proposed two-stage scheme and the average sensing time of the two-stage scheme is analyzed. Numerical results validate the efficiency of MSS and show that the two-stage spectrum sensing scheme enjoys higher performance in the low SNR region and lower time cost in the high SNR region than the single-stage scheme. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61301179), the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2014M550479), and the Doctorial Programs Foundation of the Ministry of Education, China (Grant No. 20110203110011).

Site specific probability of passive acoustic detection of humpback whale calls from single fixed hydrophones.

PubMed

Helble, Tyler A; D'Spain, Gerald L; Hildebrand, John A; Campbell, Gregory S; Campbell, Richard L; Heaney, Kevin D

2013-09-01

Passive acoustic monitoring of marine mammal calls is an increasingly important method for assessing population numbers, distribution, and behavior. A common mistake in the analysis of marine mammal acoustic data is formulating conclusions about these animals without first understanding how environmental properties such as bathymetry, sediment properties, water column sound speed, and ocean acoustic noise influence the detection and character of vocalizations in the acoustic data. The approach in this paper is to use Monte Carlo simulations with a full wave field acoustic propagation model to characterize the site specific probability of detection of six types of humpback whale calls at three passive acoustic monitoring locations off the California coast. Results show that the probability of detection can vary by factors greater than ten when comparing detections across locations, or comparing detections at the same location over time, due to environmental effects. Effects of uncertainties in the inputs to the propagation model are also quantified, and the model accuracy is assessed by comparing calling statistics amassed from 24,690 humpback units recorded in the month of October 2008. Under certain conditions, the probability of detection can be estimated with uncertainties sufficiently small to allow for accurate density estimates.

Multiparametric Detection of Antibodies against Different EBV Antigens to Predict Risk for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in a High-Risk Population of China.

PubMed

Chen, Hao; Chen, Shulin; Lu, Jie; Wang, Xueping; Li, Jianpei; Li, Linfang; Fu, Jihuan; Scheper, Thomas; Meyer, Wolfgang; Peng, Yu-Hui; Liu, Wanli

2017-09-01

In this study, we aimed to use the combined detection of multiple antibodies against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antigens to develop a model for screening and diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Samples of 300 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and 494 controls, including 294 healthy subjects (HC), 99 non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma cancer patients (NNPC), and 101 patients with benign nasopharyngeal lesions (BNL), were incubated with the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2, and band intensities were used to establish a risk prediction model. The nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk probability analysis based on the panel of VCAgp125 IgA, EBNA-1 IgA, EA-D IgA, EBNA-1 IgG, EAD IgG, and VCAp19 IgG displayed the best performance. When using 26.1% as the cutoff point in ROC analysis, the AUC value and sensitivity/specificity were 0.951 and 90.7%/86.2%, respectively, in nasopharyngeal carcinoma and all controls. In nasopharyngeal carcinoma and controls without the non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma and BNL groups, the AUC value and sensitivity/specificity were 0.957 and 90.7%/88.1%, respectively. The diagnostic specificity and sensitivity of the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2 assay for both nasopharyngeal carcinoma and early-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma were higher than that of mono-antibody detection by immune-enzymatic assay and real-time PCR (EBV DNA). In the VCA-IgA-negative group, 82.6% of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients showed high probability for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and the negative predictive value was 97.1%. In the VCA-IgA-positive group, 73.3% of healthy subjects showed low probability. The positive predictive value reached 98.2% in this group. The nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk probability value determined by the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2 might be a suitable tool for nasopharyngeal carcinoma screening. Cancer Prev Res; 10(9); 542-50. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Deep Space Detectives: Searching for Planets Suitable for Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pallant, Amy; Damelin, Daniel; Pryputniewicz, Sarah

2013-01-01

This article describes the High-Adventure Science curriculum unit "Is There Life in Space?" This free online investigation, developed by The Concord Consortium, helps students see how scientists use modern tools to locate planets around distant stars and explore the probability of finding extraterrestrial life. This innovative curriculum…

Optical and X-ray early follow-up of ANTARES neutrino alerts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adrián-Martínez, S.; Ageron, M.; Albert, A.; Samarai, I. Al; André, M.; Anton, G.; Ardid, M.; Aubert, J.-J.; Baret, B.; Barrios-Martí, J.; Basa, S.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bogazzi, C.; Bormuth, R.; Bou-Cabo, M.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Bruijn, R.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Capone, A.; Caramete, L.; Carr, J.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Coyle, P.; Creusot, A.; Dekeyser, I.; Deschamps, A.; De Bonis, G.; Distefano, C.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Drouhin, D.; Dumas, A.; Eberl, T.; Elsässer, D.; Enzenhöfer, A.; Fehn, K.; Felis, I.; Fermani, P.; Folger, F.; Fusco, L. A.; Galatà, S.; Gay, P.; Geißelsöder, S.; Geyer, K.; Giordano, V.; Gleixner, A.; Gracia-Ruiz, R.; Graf, K.; van Haren, H.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Herrero, A.; Hößl, J.; Hofestädt, J.; Hugon, C.; James, C. W.; de Jong, M.; Kadler, M.; Kalekin, O.; Katz, U.; Kießling, D.; Kooijman, P.; Kouchner, A.; Kreykenbohm, I.; Kulikovskiy, V.; Lahmann, R.; Lambard, G.; Lattuada, D.; Lefèvre, D.; Leonora, E.; Loucatos, S.; Mangano, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Martínez-Mora, J. A.; Martini, S.; Mathieu, A.; Michael, T.; Migliozzi, P.; Moussa, A.; Mueller, C.; Neff, M.; Nezri, E.; Păvălaš, G. E.; Pellegrino, C.; Perrina, C.; Piattelli, P.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Racca, C.; Riccobene, G.; Richter, R.; Roensch, K.; Rostovtsev, A.; Saldaña, M.; Samtleben, D. F. E.; Sanguineti, M.; Sapienza, P.; Schmid, J.; Schnabel, J.; Schulte, S.; Schüssler, F.; Seitz, T.; Sieger, C.; Spurio, M.; Steijger, J. J. M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Sánchez-Losa, A.; Taiuti, M.; Tamburini, C.; Trovato, A.; Tselengidou, M.; Tönnis, C.; Turpin, D.; Vallage, B.; Vallée, C.; Van Elewyck, V.; Vecchi, M.; Visser, E.; Vivolo, D.; Wagner, S.; Wilms, J.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.; Klotz, A.; Boer, M.; Le Van Suu, A.; Akerlof, C.; Zheng, W.; Evans, P.; Gehrels, N.; Kennea, J.; Osborne, J. P.; Coward, D. M.

2016-02-01

High-energy neutrinos could be produced in the interaction of charged cosmic rays with matter or radiation surrounding astrophysical sources. Even with the recent detection of extraterrestrial high-energy neutrinos by the IceCube experiment, no astrophysical neutrino source has yet been discovered. Transient sources, such as gamma-ray bursts, core-collapse supernovae, or active galactic nuclei are promising candidates. Multi-messenger programs offer a unique opportunity to detect these transient sources. By combining the information provided by the ANTARES neutrino telescope with information coming from other observatories, the probability of detecting a source is enhanced, allowing the possibility of identifying a neutrino progenitor from a single detected event. A method based on optical and X-ray follow-ups of high-energy neutrino alerts has been developed within the ANTARES collaboration. This method does not require any assumptions on the relation between neutrino and photon spectra other than time-correlation. This program, denoted as TAToO, triggers a network of robotic optical telescopes (TAROT and ROTSE) and the Swift-XRT with a delay of only a few seconds after a neutrino detection, and is therefore well-suited to search for fast transient sources. To identify an optical or X-ray counterpart to a neutrino signal, the images provided by the follow-up observations are analysed with dedicated pipelines. A total of 42 alerts with optical and 7 alerts with X-ray images taken with a maximum delay of 24 hours after the neutrino trigger have been analysed. No optical or X-ray counterparts associated to the neutrino triggers have been found, and upper limits on transient source magnitudes have been derived. The probability to reject the gamma-ray burst origin hypothesis has been computed for each alert.

Optical and X-ray early follow-up of ANTARES neutrino alerts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adrián-Martínez, S.; Ardid, M.; Ageron, M.

High-energy neutrinos could be produced in the interaction of charged cosmic rays with matter or radiation surrounding astrophysical sources. Even with the recent detection of extraterrestrial high-energy neutrinos by the IceCube experiment, no astrophysical neutrino source has yet been discovered. Transient sources, such as gamma-ray bursts, core-collapse supernovae, or active galactic nuclei are promising candidates. Multi-messenger programs offer a unique opportunity to detect these transient sources. By combining the information provided by the ANTARES neutrino telescope with information coming from other observatories, the probability of detecting a source is enhanced, allowing the possibility of identifying a neutrino progenitor from amore » single detected event. A method based on optical and X-ray follow-ups of high-energy neutrino alerts has been developed within the ANTARES collaboration. This method does not require any assumptions on the relation between neutrino and photon spectra other than time-correlation. This program, denoted as TAToO, triggers a network of robotic optical telescopes (TAROT and ROTSE) and the Swift-XRT with a delay of only a few seconds after a neutrino detection, and is therefore well-suited to search for fast transient sources. To identify an optical or X-ray counterpart to a neutrino signal, the images provided by the follow-up observations are analysed with dedicated pipelines. A total of 42 alerts with optical and 7 alerts with X-ray images taken with a maximum delay of 24 hours after the neutrino trigger have been analysed. No optical or X-ray counterparts associated to the neutrino triggers have been found, and upper limits on transient source magnitudes have been derived. The probability to reject the gamma-ray burst origin hypothesis has been computed for each alert.« less

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1) Outbreak in Captive Wild Birds and Cats, Cambodia

PubMed Central

Marx, Nick; Ong, Sivuth; Gaidet, Nicolas; Hunt, Matt; Manuguerra, Jean-Claude; Sorn, San; Peiris, Malik; Van der Werf, Sylvie; Reynes, Jean-Marc

2009-01-01

From December 2003 through January 2004, the Phnom Tamao Wildlife Rescue Centre, Cambodia, was affected by the highly pathogenic influenza virus (H5N1). Birds from 26 species died. Influenza virus subtype H5N1 was detected in 6 of 7 species tested. Cats from 5 of 7 species were probably infected; none died. PMID:19239769

Review of Literature for Model Assisted Probability of Detection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, Ryan M.; Crawford, Susan L.; Lareau, John P.

This is a draft technical letter report for NRC client documenting a literature review of model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) for potential application to nuclear power plant components for improvement of field NDE performance estimations.

Probability of detection evaluation results for railroad tank cars : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

The Transportation Technology Center, Inc. (TTCI) used the approach developed for the National Aeronautics and Space : Association to determine the probability of detection (POD) for various nondestructive test (NDT) methods used during inspection : ...

[Hepatitis B case grouping serological study among six chinese families in Almeria, Spain].

PubMed

Barroso García, Pilar; Lucerna Méndez, M Angeles; Adrián Monforte, Estrella; Parrón Carreño, Tesifón

2004-01-01

Following the detection of two cases of members of 6 Chinese families having tested positive for the hepatitis B virus, a study of those living in these families was begun for the purpose of knowing the spread of the infection within the family environment of the cases detected. Descriptive study. Population under study: 24 members of six Chinese families. Age, sex, serological diagnosis, risk factors, healthcare-related attitude. Clinical records, serological data, epidemiological survey and immunization cards. A family focus was employed and the genogram used. Distribution Binomial spread for calculating probability of occurrence of the process to be studied. A total of 14 males (58.3%) and 10 females (41.7%) ranking from 1 to 54 years of age were studied. The age group having the largest number of subjects studied was the age 21-30 group (37.5%). Twelve chronic hepatitis B infections were recorded (50%). No relationship was found to exist with the risk factors studied in the epidemiological survey conducted. The probability of this number of chronic hepatitis cases occurring was 0.066 x 10(-6). It was concluded that the prevalence of infection found was probable due to intra-family transmission. Given the low probability of occurrence of a process of this type, the case grouping found is considered to be high.

Determination of Acoustic Cavitation Probabilities and Thresholds Using a Single Focusing Transducer to Induce and Detect Acoustic Cavitation Events: I. Method and Terminology.

PubMed

Haller, Julian; Wilkens, Volker; Shaw, Adam

2018-02-01

A method to determine acoustic cavitation probabilities in tissue-mimicking materials (TMMs) is described that uses a high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) transducer for both inducing and detecting the acoustic cavitation events. The method was evaluated by studying acoustic cavitation probabilities in agar-based TMMs with and without scatterers and for different sonication modes like continuous wave, single pulses (microseconds to milliseconds) and repeated burst signals. Acoustic cavitation thresholds (defined here as the peak rarefactional in situ pressure at which the acoustic cavitation probability reaches 50%) at a frequency of 1.06 MHz were observed between 1.1 MPa (for 1 s of continuous wave sonication) and 4.6 MPa (for 1 s of a repeated burst signal with 25-cycle burst length and 10-ms burst period) in a 3% (by weight) agar phantom without scatterers. The method and its evaluation are described, and general terminology useful for standardizing the description of insonation conditions and comparing results is provided. In the accompanying second part, the presented method is used to systematically study the acoustic cavitation thresholds in the same material for a range of sonication modes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gravitational wave hotspots: Ranking potential locations of single-source gravitational wave emission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simon, Joseph; Polin, Abigail; Lommen, Andrea

2014-03-20

The steadily improving sensitivity of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) suggests that gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems in the nearby universe will be detectable sometime during the next decade. Currently, PTAs assume an equal probability of detection from every sky position, but as evidence grows for a non-isotropic distribution of sources, is there a most likely sky position for a detectable single source of GWs? In this paper, a collection of Galactic catalogs is used to calculate various metrics related to the detectability of a single GW source resolvable above a GW background, assuming that everymore » galaxy has the same probability of containing an SMBHB. Our analyses of these data reveal small probabilities that one of these sources is currently in the PTA band, but as sensitivity is improved regions of consistent probability density are found in predictable locations, specifically around local galaxy clusters.« less

A general formula for computing maximum proportion correct scores in various psychophysical paradigms with arbitrary probability distributions of stimulus observations.

PubMed

Dai, Huanping; Micheyl, Christophe

2015-05-01

Proportion correct (Pc) is a fundamental measure of task performance in psychophysics. The maximum Pc score that can be achieved by an optimal (maximum-likelihood) observer in a given task is of both theoretical and practical importance, because it sets an upper limit on human performance. Within the framework of signal detection theory, analytical solutions for computing the maximum Pc score have been established for several common experimental paradigms under the assumption of Gaussian additive internal noise. However, as the scope of applications of psychophysical signal detection theory expands, the need is growing for psychophysicists to compute maximum Pc scores for situations involving non-Gaussian (internal or stimulus-induced) noise. In this article, we provide a general formula for computing the maximum Pc in various psychophysical experimental paradigms for arbitrary probability distributions of sensory activity. Moreover, easy-to-use MATLAB code implementing the formula is provided. Practical applications of the formula are illustrated, and its accuracy is evaluated, for two paradigms and two types of probability distributions (uniform and Gaussian). The results demonstrate that Pc scores computed using the formula remain accurate even for continuous probability distributions, as long as the conversion from continuous probability density functions to discrete probability mass functions is supported by a sufficiently high sampling resolution. We hope that the exposition in this article, and the freely available MATLAB code, facilitates calculations of maximum performance for a wider range of experimental situations, as well as explorations of the impact of different assumptions concerning internal-noise distributions on maximum performance in psychophysical experiments.

Coincidence probabilities for spacecraft gravitational wave experiments - Massive coalescing binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinto, Massimo; Armstrong, J. W.

1991-01-01

Massive coalescing binary systems are candidate sources of gravitational radiation in the millihertz frequency band accessible to spacecraft Doppler tracking experiments. This paper discusses signal processing and detection probability for waves from coalescing binaries in the regime where the signal frequency increases linearly with time, i.e., 'chirp' signals. Using known noise statistics, thresholds with given false alarm probabilities are established for one- and two-spacecraft experiments. Given the threshold, the detection probability is calculated as a function of gravitational wave amplitude for both one- and two-spacecraft experiments, assuming random polarization states and under various assumptions about wave directions. This allows quantitative statements about the detection efficiency of these experiments and the utility of coincidence experiments. In particular, coincidence probabilities for two-spacecraft experiments are insensitive to the angle between the directions to the two spacecraft, indicating that near-optical experiments can be done without constraints on spacecraft trajectories.

Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

2016-04-01

Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

The influence of working memory on the anger superiority effect.

PubMed

Moriya, Jun; Koster, Ernst H W; De Raedt, Rudi

2014-01-01

The anger superiority effect shows that an angry face is detected more efficiently than a happy face. However, it is still controversial whether attentional allocation to angry faces is a bottom-up process or not. We investigated whether the anger superiority effect is influenced by top-down control, especially working memory (WM). Participants remembered a colour and then searched for differently coloured facial expressions. Just holding the colour information in WM did not modulate the anger superiority effect. However, when increasing the probabilities of trials in which the colour of a target face matched the colour held in WM, participants were inclined to direct attention to the target face regardless of the facial expression. Moreover, the knowledge of high probability of valid trials eliminated the anger superiority effect. These results suggest that the anger superiority effect is modulated by top-down effects of WM, the probability of events and expectancy about these probabilities.

The relationship study between image features and detection probability based on psychology experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Wei; Chen, Yu-hua; Wang, Ji-yuan; Gao, Hong-sheng; Wang, Ji-jun; Su, Rong-hua; Mao, Wei

2011-04-01

Detection probability is an important index to represent and estimate target viability, which provides basis for target recognition and decision-making. But it will expend a mass of time and manpower to obtain detection probability in reality. At the same time, due to the different interpretation of personnel practice knowledge and experience, a great difference will often exist in the datum obtained. By means of studying the relationship between image features and perception quantity based on psychology experiments, the probability model has been established, in which the process is as following.Firstly, four image features have been extracted and quantified, which affect directly detection. Four feature similarity degrees between target and background were defined. Secondly, the relationship between single image feature similarity degree and perception quantity was set up based on psychological principle, and psychological experiments of target interpretation were designed which includes about five hundred people for interpretation and two hundred images. In order to reduce image features correlativity, a lot of artificial synthesis images have been made which include images with single brightness feature difference, images with single chromaticity feature difference, images with single texture feature difference and images with single shape feature difference. By analyzing and fitting a mass of experiments datum, the model quantitys have been determined. Finally, by applying statistical decision theory and experimental results, the relationship between perception quantity with target detection probability has been found. With the verification of a great deal of target interpretation in practice, the target detection probability can be obtained by the model quickly and objectively.

Import risk assessment incorporating a dose-response model: introduction of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome into Australia via illegally imported raw pork.

PubMed

Brookes, V J; Hernández-Jover, M; Holyoake, P; Ward, M P

2014-03-01

Highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) has spread through parts of south-east Asia, posing a risk to Australia. The objective of this study was to assess the probability of infection of a feral or domestic pig in Australia with highly pathogenic PRRS following ingestion of illegally imported raw pork. A conservative scenario was considered in which 500 g of raw pork was imported from the Philippines into Australia without being detected by border security, then discarded from a household and potentially accessed by a pig. Monte Carlo simulation of a two-dimensional, stochastic model was used to estimate the probability of entry and exposure, and the probability of infection was assessed by incorporating a virus-decay and mechanistic dose-response model. Results indicated that the probability of infection of a feral pig after ingestion of raw meat was higher than the probability of infection of a domestic pig. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the influence of input parameters on model output probability estimates, and extension of the virus-decay and dose-response model was used to explore the impact of different temperatures and time from slaughter to ingestion of the meat, different weights of meat, and the level of viraemia at slaughter on the infectivity of meat. Parameters with the highest influence on the model output were the level of viraemia of a pig prior to slaughter and the probability of access by a feral pig to food-waste discarded on property surrounding a household. Extension of the decay and dose-response model showed that small pieces of meat (10 g) from a highly pathogenic PRRS viraemic pig could contain enough virus to have a high probability of infection of a pig, and that routes to Australia by sea or air from all highly pathogenic PRRS virus endemic countries were of interest dependent on the temperature of the raw meat during transport. This study highlighted the importance of mitigation strategies such as disposal of food-waste from international traffic as quarantine waste, and the need for further research into the probability of access to food-waste on properties by feral pigs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

40 CFR 280.40 - General requirements for all UST systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... release detection that: (1) Can detect a release from any portion of the tank and the connected... shown in the table) with a probability of detection (Pd) of 0.95 and a probability of false alarm (Pfa) of 0.05. Method Section Date after which Pd/Pfa must be demonstrated Manual Tank Gauging 280.43(b...

40 CFR 280.40 - General requirements for all UST systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... release detection that: (1) Can detect a release from any portion of the tank and the connected... shown in the table) with a probability of detection (Pd) of 0.95 and a probability of false alarm (Pfa) of 0.05. Method Section Date after which Pd/Pfa must be demonstrated Manual Tank Gauging 280.43(b...

40 CFR 280.40 - General requirements for all UST systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... release detection that: (1) Can detect a release from any portion of the tank and the connected... shown in the table) with a probability of detection (Pd) of 0.95 and a probability of false alarm (Pfa) of 0.05. Method Section Date after which Pd/Pfa must be demonstrated Manual Tank Gauging 280.43(b...

40 CFR 280.40 - General requirements for all UST systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... release detection that: (1) Can detect a release from any portion of the tank and the connected... shown in the table) with a probability of detection (Pd) of 0.95 and a probability of false alarm (Pfa) of 0.05. Method Section Date after which Pd/Pfa must be demonstrated Manual Tank Gauging 280.43(b...

40 CFR 280.40 - General requirements for all UST systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... release detection that: (1) Can detect a release from any portion of the tank and the connected... shown in the table) with a probability of detection (Pd) of 0.95 and a probability of false alarm (Pfa) of 0.05. Method Section Date after which Pd/Pfa must be demonstrated Manual Tank Gauging 280.43(b...

Probability of detecting nematode infestations for quarantine sampling with imperfect extraction efficacy

PubMed Central

Chen, Peichen; Liu, Shih-Chia; Liu, Hung-I; Chen, Tse-Wei

2011-01-01

For quarantine sampling, it is of fundamental importance to determine the probability of finding an infestation when a specified number of units are inspected. In general, current sampling procedures assume 100% probability (perfect) of detecting a pest if it is present within a unit. Ideally, a nematode extraction method should remove all stages of all species with 100% efficiency regardless of season, temperature, or other environmental conditions; in practice however, no method approaches these criteria. In this study we determined the probability of detecting nematode infestations for quarantine sampling with imperfect extraction efficacy. Also, the required sample and the risk involved in detecting nematode infestations with imperfect extraction efficacy are presented. Moreover, we developed a computer program to calculate confidence levels for different scenarios with varying proportions of infestation and efficacy of detection. In addition, a case study, presenting the extraction efficacy of the modified Baermann's Funnel method on Aphelenchoides besseyi, is used to exemplify the use of our program to calculate the probability of detecting nematode infestations in quarantine sampling with imperfect extraction efficacy. The result has important implications for quarantine programs and highlights the need for a very large number of samples if perfect extraction efficacy is not achieved in such programs. We believe that the results of the study will be useful for the determination of realistic goals in the implementation of quarantine sampling. PMID:22791911

Heterozygosity-fitness correlations in a wild mammal population: accounting for parental and environmental effects.

PubMed

Annavi, Geetha; Newman, Christopher; Buesching, Christina D; Macdonald, David W; Burke, Terry; Dugdale, Hannah L

2014-06-01

HFCs (heterozygosity-fitness correlations) measure the direct relationship between an individual's genetic diversity and fitness. The effects of parental heterozygosity and the environment on HFCs are currently under-researched. We investigated these in a high-density U.K. population of European badgers (Meles meles), using a multimodel capture-mark-recapture framework and 35 microsatellite loci. We detected interannual variation in first-year, but not adult, survival probability. Adult females had higher annual survival probabilities than adult males. Cubs with more heterozygous fathers had higher first-year survival, but only in wetter summers; there was no relationship with individual or maternal heterozygosity. Moist soil conditions enhance badger food supply (earthworms), improving survival. In dryer years, higher indiscriminate mortality rates appear to mask differential heterozygosity-related survival effects. This paternal interaction was significant in the most supported model; however, the model-averaged estimate had a relative importance of 0.50 and overlapped zero slightly. First-year survival probabilities were not correlated with the inbreeding coefficient (f); however, small sample sizes limited the power to detect inbreeding depression. Correlations between individual heterozygosity and inbreeding were weak, in line with published meta-analyses showing that HFCs tend to be weak. We found support for general rather than local heterozygosity effects on first-year survival probability, and g2 indicated that our markers had power to detect inbreeding. We emphasize the importance of assessing how environmental stressors can influence the magnitude and direction of HFCs and of considering how parental genetic diversity can affect fitness-related traits, which could play an important role in the evolution of mate choice.

Research on quantitative relationship between NIIRS and the probabilities of discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Honggang

2011-08-01

There are a large number of electro-optical (EO) and infrared (IR) sensors used on military platforms including ground vehicle, low altitude air vehicle, high altitude air vehicle, and satellite systems. Ground vehicle and low-altitude air vehicle (rotary and fixed-wing aircraft) sensors typically use the probabilities of discrimination (detection, recognition, and identification) as design requirements and system performance indicators. High-altitude air vehicles and satellite sensors have traditionally used the National Imagery Interpretation Rating Scale (NIIRS) performance measures for guidance in design and measures of system performance. Recently, there has a large effort to make strategic sensor information available to tactical forces or make the information of targets acquisition can be used by strategic systems. In this paper, the two techniques about the probabilities of discrimination and NIIRS for sensor design are presented separately. For the typical infrared remote sensor design parameters, the function of the probability of recognition and NIIRS scale as the distance R is given to Standard NATO Target and M1Abrams two different size targets based on the algorithm of predicting the field performance and NIIRS. For Standard NATO Target, M1Abrams, F-15, and B-52 four different size targets, the conversion from NIIRS to the probabilities of discrimination are derived and calculated, and the similarities and differences between NIIRS and the probabilities of discrimination are analyzed based on the result of calculation. Comparisons with preliminary calculation results show that the conversion between NIIRS and the probabilities of discrimination is probable although more validation experiments are needed.

Evaluation of Correlation between Pretest Probability for Clostridium difficile Infection and Clostridium difficile Enzyme Immunoassay Results

PubMed Central

Reske, Kimberly A.; Hink, Tiffany; Dubberke, Erik R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients tested for Clostridium difficile and determine the correlation between pretest probability for C. difficile infection (CDI) and assay results. Patients with testing ordered for C. difficile were enrolled and assigned a high, medium, or low pretest probability of CDI based on clinical evaluation, laboratory, and imaging results. Stool was tested for C. difficile by toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Chi-square analyses and the log rank test were utilized. Among the 111 patients enrolled, stool samples from nine were TC positive and four were EIA positive. Sixty-one (55%) patients had clinically significant diarrhea, 19 (17%) patients did not, and clinically significant diarrhea could not be determined for 31 (28%) patients. Seventy-two (65%) patients were assessed as having a low pretest probability of having CDI, 34 (31%) as having a medium probability, and 5 (5%) as having a high probability. None of the patients with low pretest probabilities had a positive EIA, but four were TC positive. None of the seven patients with a positive TC but a negative index EIA developed CDI within 30 days after the index test or died within 90 days after the index toxin EIA date. Pretest probability for CDI should be considered prior to ordering C. difficile testing and must be taken into account when interpreting test results. CDI is a clinical diagnosis supported by laboratory data, and the detection of toxigenic C. difficile in stool does not necessarily confirm the diagnosis of CDI. PMID:27927930

Probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and elevated concentrations of nitrate plus nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the Idaho part of the western Snake River Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2000-01-01

As ground water continues to provide an ever-growing proportion of Idaho?s drinking water, concerns about the quality of that resource are increasing. Pesticides (most commonly, atrazine/desethyl-atrazine, hereafter referred to as atrazine) and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (hereafter referred to as nitrate) have been detected in many aquifers in the State. To provide a sound hydrogeologic basis for atrazine and nitrate management in southern Idaho—the largest region of land and water use in the State—the U.S. Geological Survey produced maps showing the probability of detecting these contaminants in ground water in the upper Snake River Basin (published in a 1998 report) and the western Snake River Plain (published in this report). The atrazine probability map for the western Snake River Plain was constructed by overlaying ground-water quality data with hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data in a geographic information system (GIS). A data set was produced in which each well had corresponding information on land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, regional depth to ground water, well depth, water level, and atrazine use. These data were analyzed by logistic regression using a statistical software package. Several preliminary multivariate models were developed and those that best predicted the detection of atrazine were selected. The multivariate models then were entered into a GIS and the probability maps were produced. Land use, precipitation, soil hydrologic group, and well depth were significantly correlated with atrazine detections in the western Snake River Plain. These variables also were important in the 1998 probability study of the upper Snake River Basin. The effectiveness of the probability models for atrazine might be improved if more detailed data were available for atrazine application. A preliminary atrazine probability map for the entire Snake River Plain in Idaho, based on a data set representing that region, also was produced. In areas where this map overlaps the 1998 map of the upper Snake River Basin, the two maps show broadly similar probabilities of detecting atrazine. Logistic regression also was used to develop a preliminary statistical model that predicts the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in the western Snake River Plain. A nitrate probability map was produced from this model. Results showed that elevated nitrate concentrations were correlated with land use, soil organic content, well depth, and water level. Detailed information on nitrate input, specifically fertilizer application, might have improved the effectiveness of this model.

Threshold detection in an on-off binary communications channel with atmospheric scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, W. E.; Marino, J. T., Jr.

1974-01-01

The optimum detection threshold in an on-off binary optical communications system operating in the presence of atmospheric turbulence was investigated assuming a poisson detection process and log normal scintillation. The dependence of the probability of bit error on log amplitude variance and received signal strength was analyzed and semi-emperical relationships to predict the optimum detection threshold derived. On the basis of this analysis a piecewise linear model for an adaptive threshold detection system is presented. Bit error probabilities for non-optimum threshold detection system were also investigated.

Threshold detection in an on-off binary communications channel with atmospheric scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, W. E.

1975-01-01

The optimum detection threshold in an on-off binary optical communications system operating in the presence of atmospheric turbulence was investigated assuming a poisson detection process and log normal scintillation. The dependence of the probability of bit error on log amplitude variance and received signal strength was analyzed and semi-empirical relationships to predict the optimum detection threshold derived. On the basis of this analysis a piecewise linear model for an adaptive threshold detection system is presented. The bit error probabilities for nonoptimum threshold detection systems were also investigated.

The correct estimate of the probability of false detection of the matched filter in weak-signal detection problems . II. Further results with application to a set of ALMA and ATCA data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vio, R.; Vergès, C.; Andreani, P.

2017-08-01

The matched filter (MF) is one of the most popular and reliable techniques to the detect signals of known structure and amplitude smaller than the level of the contaminating noise. Under the assumption of stationary Gaussian noise, MF maximizes the probability of detection subject to a constant probability of false detection or false alarm (PFA). This property relies upon a priori knowledge of the position of the searched signals, which is usually not available. Recently, it has been shown that when applied in its standard form, MF may severely underestimate the PFA. As a consequence the statistical significance of features that belong to noise is overestimated and the resulting detections are actually spurious. For this reason, an alternative method of computing the PFA has been proposed that is based on the probability density function (PDF) of the peaks of an isotropic Gaussian random field. In this paper we further develop this method. In particular, we discuss the statistical meaning of the PFA and show that, although useful as a preliminary step in a detection procedure, it is not able to quantify the actual reliability of a specific detection. For this reason, a new quantity is introduced called the specific probability of false alarm (SPFA), which is able to carry out this computation. We show how this method works in targeted simulations and apply it to a few interferometric maps taken with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA). We select a few potential new point sources and assign an accurate detection reliability to these sources.

Summary of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting detection probability of marsh birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Gibbs, J.P.

2011-01-01

Many species of marsh birds (rails, bitterns, grebes, etc.) rely exclusively on emergent marsh vegetation for all phases of their life cycle, and many organizations have become concerned about the status and persistence of this group of birds. Yet, marsh birds are notoriously difficult to monitor due to their secretive habits. We synthesized the published and unpublished literature and summarized the factors that influence detection probability of secretive marsh birds in North America. Marsh birds are more likely to respond to conspecific than heterospecific calls, and seasonal peak in vocalization probability varies among co-existing species. The effectiveness of morning versus evening surveys varies among species and locations. Vocalization probability appears to be positively correlated with density in breeding Virginia Rails (Rallus limicola), Soras (Porzana carolina), and Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris). Movement of birds toward the broadcast source creates biases when using count data from callbroadcast surveys to estimate population density. Ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phase affected detection probability in some, but not all, studies. Better estimates of detection probability are needed. We provide recommendations that would help improve future marsh bird survey efforts and a list of 14 priority information and research needs that represent gaps in our current knowledge where future resources are best directed. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.

Causal illusions in children when the outcome is frequent

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually unrelated. One factor that has been shown to promote these mistaken beliefs is the outcome probability. Thus, people tend to overestimate the strength of a causal relation when the potential consequence (i.e. the outcome) occurs with a high probability (outcome-density bias). Given that children and adults differ in several important features involved in causal judgment, including prior knowledge and basic cognitive skills, developmental studies can be considered an outstanding approach to detect and further explore the psychological processes and mechanisms underlying this bias. However, the outcome density bias has been mainly explored in adulthood, and no previous evidence for this bias has been reported in children. Thus, the purpose of this study was to extend outcome-density bias research to childhood. In two experiments, children between 6 and 8 years old were exposed to two similar setups, both showing a non-contingent relation between the potential cause and the outcome. These two scenarios differed only in the probability of the outcome, which could either be high or low. Children judged the relation between the two events to be stronger in the high probability of the outcome setting, revealing that, like adults, they develop causal illusions when the outcome is frequent. PMID:28898294

Detection and Plant Monitoring Programs: Lessons from an Intensive Survey of Asclepias meadii with Five Observers

PubMed Central

Alexander, Helen M.; Reed, Aaron W.; Kettle, W. Dean; Slade, Norman A.; Bodbyl Roels, Sarah A.; Collins, Cathy D.; Salisbury, Vaughn

2012-01-01

Monitoring programs, where numbers of individuals are followed through time, are central to conservation. Although incomplete detection is expected with wildlife surveys, this topic is rarely considered with plants. However, if plants are missed in surveys, raw count data can lead to biased estimates of population abundance and vital rates. To illustrate, we had five independent observers survey patches of the rare plant Asclepias meadii at two prairie sites. We analyzed data with two mark-recapture approaches. Using the program CAPTURE, the estimated number of patches equaled the detected number for a burned site, but exceeded detected numbers by 28% for an unburned site. Analyses of detected patches using Huggins models revealed important effects of observer, patch state (flowering/nonflowering), and patch size (number of stems) on probabilities of detection. Although some results were expected (i.e. greater detection of flowering than nonflowering patches), the importance of our approach is the ability to quantify the magnitude of detection problems. We also evaluated the degree to which increased observer numbers improved detection: smaller groups (3–4 observers) generally found 90 – 99% of the patches found by all five people, but pairs of observers or single observers had high error and detection depended on which individuals were involved. We conclude that an intensive study at the start of a long-term monitoring study provides essential information about probabilities of detection and what factors cause plants to be missed. This information can guide development of monitoring programs. PMID:23285179

Maximizing the Detection Probability of Kilonovae Associated with Gravitational Wave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Man Leong; Hu, Yi-Ming; Messenger, Chris; Hendry, Martin; Heng, Ik Siong

2017-01-01

Estimates of the source sky location for gravitational wave signals are likely to span areas of up to hundreds of square degrees or more, making it very challenging for most telescopes to search for counterpart signals in the electromagnetic spectrum. To boost the chance of successfully observing such counterparts, we have developed an algorithm that optimizes the number of observing fields and their corresponding time allocations by maximizing the detection probability. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we optimize follow-up observations targeting kilonovae using telescopes including the CTIO-Dark Energy Camera, Subaru-HyperSuprimeCam, Pan-STARRS, and the Palomar Transient Factory. We consider three simulated gravitational wave events with 90% credible error regions spanning areas from ∼ 30 {\\deg }2 to ∼ 300 {\\deg }2. Assuming a source at 200 {Mpc}, we demonstrate that to obtain a maximum detection probability, there is an optimized number of fields for any particular event that a telescope should observe. To inform future telescope design studies, we present the maximum detection probability and corresponding number of observing fields for a combination of limiting magnitudes and fields of view over a range of parameters. We show that for large gravitational wave error regions, telescope sensitivity rather than field of view is the dominating factor in maximizing the detection probability.

On the non-detection of Glashow resonance in IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, Sarira; Zhang, Bing

2018-06-01

Electron anti-neutrinos at the Glashow resonance (GR, at Eνbare ∼ 6.3 PeV) have an enhanced probability to be detected. With three neutrinos detected by IceCube in the (1-2) PeV energy range at present, one would expect that about 1 to 4 GR νbare should have been detected. The high-energy ∼8.7 PeV muon neutrino detected by IceCube may not be a GR event. If so, we expect to detect 50 to 70 GR νbare, then one would have a "missing Glashow-resonance problem". This would suggest (1) that pγ interaction rather than pp interaction is the dominant channel to produce the observed IceCube high-energy neutrinos; (2) that multi-pion pγ interactions are suppressed; and (3) that the magnetic field and photon energy density in the pγ emission region is such that significant μ+ cooling occurs before decaying, yet π+'s essentially do not cool before decaying.

In vivo bubble nucleation probability in sheep brain tissue.

PubMed

Gateau, J; Aubry, J-F; Chauvet, D; Boch, A-L; Fink, M; Tanter, M

2011-11-21

Gas nuclei exist naturally in living bodies. Their activation initiates cavitation activity, and is possible using short ultrasonic excitations of high amplitude. However, little is known about the nuclei population in vivo, and therefore about the rarefaction pressure required to form bubbles in tissue. A novel method dedicated to in vivo investigations was used here that combines passive and active cavitation detection with a multi-element linear ultrasound probe (4-7 MHz). Experiments were performed in vivo on the brain of trepanated sheep. Bubble nucleation was induced using a focused single-element transducer (central frequency 660 kHz, f-number = 1) driven by a high power (up to 5 kW) electric burst of two cycles. Successive passive recording and ultrafast active imaging were shown to allow detection of a single nucleation event in brain tissue in vivo. Experiments carried out on eight sheep allowed statistical studies of the bubble nucleation process. The nucleation probability was evaluated as a function of the peak negative pressure. No nucleation event could be detected with a peak negative pressure weaker than -12.7 MPa, i.e. one order of magnitude higher than the recommendations based on the mechanical index. Below this threshold, bubble nucleation in vivo in brain tissues is a random phenomenon.

True detection limits in an experimental linearly heteroscedastic system.. Part 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigtman, Edward; Abraham, Kevin T.

2011-11-01

Despite much different processing of the experimental fluorescence detection data presented in Part 1, essentially the same estimates were obtained for the true theoretical Currie decision levels ( YC and XC) and true Currie detection limits ( YD and XD). The obtained experimental values, for 5% probability of false positives and 5% probability of false negatives, were YC = 56.0 mV, YD = 125. mV, XC = 0.132 μg/mL and XD = 0.293 μg/mL. For 5% probability of false positives and 1% probability of false negatives, the obtained detection limits were YD = 158 . mV and XD = 0.371 μg/mL. Furthermore, by using bootstrapping methodology on the experimental data for the standards and the analytical blank, it was possible to validate previously published experimental domain expressions for the decision levels ( yC and xC) and detection limits ( yD and xD). This was demonstrated by testing the generated decision levels and detection limits for their performance in regard to false positives and false negatives. In every case, the obtained numbers of false negatives and false positives were as specified a priori.

Variation in Empiric Coverage Versus Detection of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Hospitalizations for Community-Onset Pneumonia Across 128 US Veterans Affairs Medical Centers.

PubMed

Jones, Barbara E; Brown, Kevin Antoine; Jones, Makoto M; Huttner, Benedikt D; Greene, Tom; Sauer, Brian C; Madaras-Kelly, Karl; Rubin, Michael A; Bidwell Goetz, Matthew; Samore, Matthew H

2017-08-01

OBJECTIVE To examine variation in antibiotic coverage and detection of resistant pathogens in community-onset pneumonia. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SETTING A total of 128 hospitals in the Veterans Affairs health system. PARTICIPANTS Hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of pneumonia from 2009 through 2010. METHODS We examined proportions of hospitalizations with empiric antibiotic coverage for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PAER) and with initial detection in blood or respiratory cultures. We compared lowest- versus highest-decile hospitals, and we estimated adjusted probabilities (AP) for patient- and hospital-level factors predicting coverage and detection using hierarchical regression modeling. RESULTS Among 38,473 hospitalizations, empiric coverage varied widely across hospitals (MRSA lowest vs highest, 8.2% vs 42.0%; PAER lowest vs highest, 13.9% vs 44.4%). Detection rates also varied (MRSA lowest vs highest, 0.5% vs 3.6%; PAER lowest vs highest, 0.6% vs 3.7%). Whereas coverage was greatest among patients with recent hospitalizations (AP for anti-MRSA, 54%; AP for anti-PAER, 59%) and long-term care (AP for anti-MRSA, 60%; AP for anti-PAER, 66%), detection was greatest in patients with a previous history of a positive culture (AP for MRSA, 7.9%; AP for PAER, 11.9%) and in hospitals with a high prevalence of the organism in pneumonia (AP for MRSA, 3.9%; AP for PAER, 3.2%). Low hospital complexity and rural setting were strong negative predictors of coverage but not of detection. CONCLUSIONS Hospitals demonstrated widespread variation in both coverage and detection of MRSA and PAER, but probability of coverage correlated poorly with probability of detection. Factors associated with empiric coverage (eg, healthcare exposure) were different from those associated with detection (eg, microbiology history). Providing microbiology data during empiric antibiotic decision making could better align coverage to risk for resistant pathogens and could promote more judicious use of broad-spectrum antibiotics. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:937-944.

Persistence rates and detection probabilities of bird carcasses on beaches of Unalaska Island, Alaska following the wreck of the M/V Selendang Ayu

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, G. Vernon; Reynolds, Joel H.; Flint, Paul L.

2009-01-01

Mark–recapture techniques were used to estimate persistence rates and detection probabilities of bird carcasses associated with the oil spill following the wreck of the M/V Selendang Ayu at Unalaska Island, Alaska. Only 14.6% of carcasses placed on beaches remained after 24 hours, and all carcasses that remained had been scavenged to some degree. Daily persistence rates for scavenged carcasses on subsequent days were substantially higher at 79.1%. Most carcasses (>98%) were removed by scavengers at night. When they made a single pass, observers searching beaches for carcasses that had washed ashore found only about 40% of carcasses known to be present. This detection probability did not vary between pairs of search teams or between beaches. Detection probability increased to about 70% when teams searched the same beach segment twice. Our data indicate that only a small fraction of beached carcasses would likely be found using standard beach survey protocols and search frequencies. These data emphasize the importance of measuring persistence and detection rates for each mortality event.

Finding a fox: an evaluation of survey methods to estimate abundance of a small desert carnivore.

PubMed

Dempsey, Steven J; Gese, Eric M; Kluever, Bryan M

2014-01-01

The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore.

Finding a Fox: An Evaluation of Survey Methods to Estimate Abundance of a Small Desert Carnivore

PubMed Central

Dempsey, Steven J.; Gese, Eric M.; Kluever, Bryan M.

2014-01-01

The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore. PMID:25148102

A Generalized Process Model of Human Action Selection and Error and its Application to Error Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

Macmillan & Creelman , 2005). This is a quite high degree of discriminability and it means that when the decision model predicts a probability of...ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27(8), 861-874. Retrieved from Google Scholar. Macmillan, N. A., & Creelman , C. D. (2005). Detection

Exclusion and diagnosis of pulmonary embolism by a rapid ELISA D-dimer test and noninvasive imaging techniques within the context of a clinical model.

PubMed

Michiels, J J; Pattynama, P M

2000-01-01

A negative rapid ELISA D-dimer test alone in out-patients with a low to moderate clinical probability (CP) on pulmonary embolism (PE) is predicted to safely exclude pulmonary embolism. The combination of a negative rapid ELISA D-dimer test and a low to moderate CP on PE followed by compression ultrasonography (CUS) for the detection of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is safe and cost-effective as it reduces the need for noninvasive imaging techniques to about 50% to 60% of outpatients with suspected PE. A high probability ventilation-perfusion (VP) scan or a positive spiral CT consistent with PE and the detection of DVT by CUS are currently considered to be clear indications for anticoagulant treatment. Subsequent pulmonary angiography (PA) is the gold standard diagnostic strategy to exclude or diagnose PE in suspected outpatients with a negative CUS, a positive rapid ELISA D-dimer test, and a nondiagnostic VP scan or negative spiral CT to prevent overtreatment with anticoagulants. However, the willingness of clinicians and the availability of resources to perform PA is restricted, a fact that has provided an impetus for clinical investigators to search for alternative noninvasive strategies to exclude or detect venous thromboembolism (VTE). Serial CUS testing for the detection of DVT in patients with a low to moderate CP on PE and a nondiagnostic VP scan or negative spiral CT is predicted to be safe and will reduce the need for PA to less than 10% or even less than 5%. This noninvasive serial CUS strategy restricts the need for invasive PA to a minor group of patients (< 5%) with the combination of a low CP on PE and high probability VP scan or the combination of a nondiagnostic VP scan or negative spiral CT and a high CP on PE. Prospective evaluations are warranted to implement and to validate the advantages and the disadvantages of the various combinations of noninvasive strategies and to compare serial CUS testing versus PA in randomized clinical management studies of outpatients with suspected pulmonary embolism.

Evaluation of aerial survey methods for Dall's sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Shults, Brad S.; Adams, Layne G.; Kleckner, Christopher

2006-01-01

Most Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) population-monitoring efforts use intensive aerial surveys with no attempt to estimate variance or adjust for potential sightability bias. We used radiocollared sheep to assess factors that could affect sightability of Dall's sheep in standard fixed-wing and helicopter surveys and to evaluate feasibility of methods that might account for sightability bias. Work was conducted in conjunction with annual aerial surveys of Dall's sheep in the western Baird Mountains, Alaska, USA, in 2000–2003. Overall sightability was relatively high compared with other aerial wildlife surveys, with 88% of the available, marked sheep detected in our fixed-wing surveys. Total counts from helicopter surveys were not consistently larger than counts from fixed-wing surveys of the same units, and detection probabilities did not differ for the 2 aircraft types. Our results suggest that total counts from helicopter surveys cannot be used to obtain reliable estimates of detection probabilities for fixed-wing surveys. Groups containing radiocollared sheep often changed in size and composition before they could be observed by a second crew in units that were double-surveyed. Double-observer methods that require determination of which groups were detected by each observer will be infeasible unless survey procedures can be modified so that groups remain more stable between observations. Mean group sizes increased during our study period, and our logistic regression sightability model indicated that detection probabilities increased with group size. Mark–resight estimates of annual population sizes were similar to sightability-model estimates, and confidence intervals overlapped broadly. We recommend the sightability-model approach as the most effective and feasible of the alternatives we considered for monitoring Dall's sheep populations.

An Optimal Method for Detecting Internal and External Intrusion in MANET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafsanjani, Marjan Kuchaki; Aliahmadipour, Laya; Javidi, Mohammad M.

Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET) is formed by a set of mobile hosts which communicate among themselves through radio waves. The hosts establish infrastructure and cooperate to forward data in a multi-hop fashion without a central administration. Due to their communication type and resources constraint, MANETs are vulnerable to diverse types of attacks and intrusions. In this paper, we proposed a method for prevention internal intruder and detection external intruder by using game theory in mobile ad hoc network. One optimal solution for reducing the resource consumption of detection external intruder is to elect a leader for each cluster to provide intrusion service to other nodes in the its cluster, we call this mode moderate mode. Moderate mode is only suitable when the probability of attack is low. Once the probability of attack is high, victim nodes should launch their own IDS to detect and thwart intrusions and we call robust mode. In this paper leader should not be malicious or selfish node and must detect external intrusion in its cluster with minimum cost. Our proposed method has three steps: the first step building trust relationship between nodes and estimation trust value for each node to prevent internal intrusion. In the second step we propose an optimal method for leader election by using trust value; and in the third step, finding the threshold value for notifying the victim node to launch its IDS once the probability of attack exceeds that value. In first and third step we apply Bayesian game theory. Our method due to using game theory, trust value and honest leader can effectively improve the network security, performance and reduce resource consumption.

Shadow Probability of Detection and False Alarm for Median-Filtered SAR Imagery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raynal, Ann Marie; Doerry, Armin Walter; Miller, John A.

2014-06-01

Median filtering reduces speckle in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery while preserving edges, at the expense of coarsening the resolution, by replacing the center pixel of a sliding window by the median value. For shadow detection, this approach helps distinguish shadows from clutter more easily, while preserving shadow shape delineations. However, the nonlinear operation alters the shadow and clutter distributions and statistics, which must be taken into consideration when computing probability of detection and false alarm metrics. Depending on system parameters, median filtering can improve probability of detection and false alarm by orders of magnitude. Herein, we examine shadow probabilitymore » of detection and false alarm in a homogeneous, ideal clutter background after median filter post-processing. Some comments on multi-look processing effects with and without median filtering are also made.« less

Hepatitis disease detection using Bayesian theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maseleno, Andino; Hidayati, Rohmah Zahroh

2017-02-01

This paper presents hepatitis disease diagnosis using a Bayesian theory for better understanding of the theory. In this research, we used a Bayesian theory for detecting hepatitis disease and displaying the result of diagnosis process. Bayesian algorithm theory is rediscovered and perfected by Laplace, the basic idea is using of the known prior probability and conditional probability density parameter, based on Bayes theorem to calculate the corresponding posterior probability, and then obtained the posterior probability to infer and make decisions. Bayesian methods combine existing knowledge, prior probabilities, with additional knowledge derived from new data, the likelihood function. The initial symptoms of hepatitis which include malaise, fever and headache. The probability of hepatitis given the presence of malaise, fever, and headache. The result revealed that a Bayesian theory has successfully identified the existence of hepatitis disease.

On the performance of energy detection-based CR with SC diversity over IG channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Pappu Kumar; Soni, Sanjay Kumar; Jain, Priyanka

2017-12-01

Cognitive radio (CR) is a viable 5G technology to address the scarcity of the spectrum. Energy detection-based sensing is known to be the simplest method as far as hardware complexity is concerned. In this paper, the performance of spectrum sensing-based energy detection technique in CR networks over inverse Gaussian channel for selection combining diversity technique is analysed. More specifically, accurate analytical expressions for the average detection probability under different detection scenarios such as single channel (no diversity) and with diversity reception are derived and evaluated. Further, the detection threshold parameter is optimised by minimising the probability of error over several diversity branches. The results clearly show the significant improvement in the probability of detection when optimised threshold parameter is applied. The impact of shadowing parameters on the performance of energy detector is studied in terms of complimentary receiver operating characteristic curve. To verify the correctness of our analysis, the derived analytical expressions are corroborated via exact result and Monte Carlo simulations.

Hidden Markov models and neural networks for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic

1994-01-01

Neural networks plus hidden Markov models (HMM) can provide excellent detection and false alarm rate performance in fault detection applications, as shown in this viewgraph presentation. Modified models allow for novelty detection. Key contributions of neural network models are: (1) excellent nonparametric discrimination capability; (2) a good estimator of posterior state probabilities, even in high dimensions, and thus can be embedded within overall probabilistic model (HMM); and (3) simple to implement compared to other nonparametric models. Neural network/HMM monitoring model is currently being integrated with the new Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna controller software and will be on-line monitoring a new DSN 34-m antenna (DSS-24) by July, 1994.

A high-frequency survey of the southern Galactic plane for pulsars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, Simon; Lyne, A. G.; Manchester, R. N.; Kniffen, D. A.; D'Amico, N.; Lim, J.; Ashworth, M.

1992-01-01

Results of an HF survey designed to detect young, distant, and short-period pulsars are presented. The survey detected a total of 100 pulsars, 46 of which were previously unknown. The periods of the newly discovered pulsars range between 47 ms and 2.5 ms. One of the new discoveries, PSR 1259-63, is a member of a long-period binary system. At least three of the pulsars have ages less than 30,000 yr, bringing the total number of such pulsars to 12. The majority of the new discoveries are distant objects with high dispersion measures, which are difficult to detect at low frequencies. This demonstrates that the survey has reduced the severe selection effects of pulse scattering, high Galactic background temperature, and dispersion broadening, which hamper the detection of such pulsars at low radio frequencies. The pulsar distribution in the southern Galaxy is found to extend much further from the Galactic center than that in the north, probably due to two prominent spiral arms in the southern Galaxy.

Was The 01.09.2001 Etarpas Rockfall Detectable? Answer Using A Gis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baillifard, F.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Rouiller, J.-D.; Sartori, M.

As a general rule, "a posteriori" studies of rock slope instabilities show that rock- falls don't occur in casual locations. First, many geomorphologic arguments allow to identify the rupture zone as sensitive; secondly, external factors such as groundwa- ter circulations, freezing and thaw cycles, etc., induce long-term solicitations of the rock mass, and thus the diminution of the resistance along the discontinuities and the probably progressive rupture of the thrust. Once the sensitive zones are detected, the global activity induced by the external factors must be assessed, and the probability of rupture may be evaluated. Taking the opportunity of a 2'000 m3 rockfall that occurred on January, 9th, 2001, along a mountain road near Sion (Switzerland), a simple method to detect rock slope instabilities was tested. In order to locate sensitive areas, a set of five criterions was chosen, using available GIS formatted data such as vectorized topographic and geological maps, and a 25 m grid DTM. The chosen criterions are: the presence of faults and screes within a short distance, the presence of a rock face, a steep slope and a road. This scaling leads to a linear rating from 0 to 5. The location of the 01.09.01 rockfall obtains a score of 5. Once applied to the entire length of the road (4 km), the present method indicates two others areas which are highly sensitive to rupture, allowing to detect the main instabilities along this road. Such methods based on rough available parameters have now to be applied to larger areas. They also must be calibrated using a survey of past events. The studied rockfall area is affected by a high probability of rupture, as far as some necessary criteria are respected: first, the structural pattern has to be unfavorable; sec- ondly, the morphological conditions have to be favorable to the action of external factors.

Community Participation in Chagas Disease Vector Surveillance: Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Abad-Franch, Fernando; Vega, M. Celeste; Rolón, Miriam S.; Santos, Walter S.; Rojas de Arias, Antonieta

2011-01-01

Background Vector control has substantially reduced Chagas disease (ChD) incidence. However, transmission by household-reinfesting triatomines persists, suggesting that entomological surveillance should play a crucial role in the long-term interruption of transmission. Yet, infestation foci become smaller and harder to detect as vector control proceeds, and highly sensitive surveillance methods are needed. Community participation (CP) and vector-detection devices (VDDs) are both thought to enhance surveillance, but this remains to be thoroughly assessed. Methodology/Principal Findings We searched Medline, Web of Knowledge, Scopus, LILACS, SciELO, the bibliographies of retrieved studies, and our own records. Data from studies describing vector control and/or surveillance interventions were extracted by two reviewers. Outcomes of primary interest included changes in infestation rates and the detection of infestation/reinfestation foci. Most results likely depended on study- and site-specific conditions, precluding meta-analysis, but we re-analysed data from studies comparing vector control and detection methods whenever possible. Results confirm that professional, insecticide-based vector control is highly effective, but also show that reinfestation by native triatomines is common and widespread across Latin America. Bug notification by householders (the simplest CP-based strategy) significantly boosts vector detection probabilities; in comparison, both active searches and VDDs perform poorly, although they might in some cases complement each other. Conclusions/Significance CP should become a strategic component of ChD surveillance, but only professional insecticide spraying seems consistently effective at eliminating infestation foci. Involvement of stakeholders at all process stages, from planning to evaluation, would probably enhance such CP-based strategies. PMID:21713022

Direct sampling of chemical weapons in water by photoionization mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Syage, Jack A; Cai, Sheng-Suan; Li, Jianwei; Evans, Matthew D

2006-05-01

The vulnerability of water supplies to toxic contamination calls for fast and effective means for screening water samples for multiple threats. We describe the use of photoionization (PI) mass spectrometry (MS) for high-speed, high-throughput screening and molecular identification of chemical weapons (CW) threats and other hazardous compounds. The screening technology can detect a wide range of compounds at subacute concentrations with no sample preparation and a sampling cycle time of approximately 45 s. The technology was tested with CW agents VX, GA, GB, GD, GF, HD, HN1, and HN3, in addition to riot agents and precursors. All are sensitively detected and give simple PI mass spectra dominated by the parent ion. The target application of the PI MS method is as a routine, real-time early warning system for CW agents and other hazardous compounds in air and in water. In this work, we also present comprehensive measurements for water analysis and report on the system detection limits, linearity, quantitation accuracy, and false positive (FP) and false negative rates for concentrations at subacute levels. The latter data are presented in the form of receiver operating characteristic curves of the form of detection probability P(D) versus FP probability P(FP). These measurements were made using the CW surrogate compounds, DMMP, DEMP, DEEP, and DIMP. Method detection limits (3sigma) obtained using a capillary injection method yielded 1, 6, 3, and 2 ng/mL, respectively. These results were obtained using 1-microL injections of water samples without any preparation, corresponding to mass detection limits of 1, 6, 3, and 2 pg, respectively. The linear range was about 3-4 decades and the dynamic range about 4-5 decades. The relative standard deviations were generally <10% at CW subacute concentrations levels.

Fusion of multiple quadratic penalty function support vector machines (QPFSVM) for automated sea mine detection and classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobeck, Gerald J.; Cobb, J. Tory

2002-08-01

The high-resolution sonar is one of the principal sensors used by the Navy to detect and classify sea mines in minehunting operations. For such sonar systems, substantial effort has been devoted to the development of automated detection and classification (D/C) algorithms. These have been spurred by several factors including (1) aids for operators to reduce work overload, (2) more optimal use of all available data, and (3) the introduction of unmanned minehunting systems. The environments where sea mines are typically laid (harbor areas, shipping lanes, and the littorals) give rise to many false alarms caused by natural, biologic, and man-made clutter. The objective of the automated D/C algorithms is to eliminate most of these false alarms while still maintaining a very high probability of mine detection and classification (PdPc). In recent years, the benefits of fusing the outputs of multiple D/C algorithms have been studied. We refer to this as Algorithm Fusion. The results have been remarkable, including reliable robustness to new environments. The Quadratic Penalty Function Support Vector Machine (QPFSVM) algorithm to aid in the automated detection and classification of sea mines is introduced in this paper. The QPFSVM algorithm is easy to train, simple to implement, and robust to feature space dimension. Outputs of successive SVM algorithms are cascaded in stages (fused) to improve the Probability of Classification (Pc) and reduce the number of false alarms. Even though our experience has been gained in the area of sea mine detection and classification, the principles described herein are general and can be applied to fusion of any D/C problem (e.g., automated medical diagnosis or automatic target recognition for ballistic missile defense).

Eclipsing Stellar Binaries in the Galactic Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gongjie; Ginsburg, Idan; Naoz, Smadar; Loeb, Abraham

2017-12-01

Compact stellar binaries are expected to survive in the dense environment of the Galactic center. The stable binaries may undergo Kozai–Lidov oscillations due to perturbations from the central supermassive black hole (Sgr A*), yet the general relativistic precession can suppress the Kozai–Lidov oscillations and keep the stellar binaries from merging. However, it is challenging to resolve the binary sources and distinguish them from single stars. The close separations of the stable binaries allow higher eclipse probabilities. Here, we consider the massive star SO-2 as an example and calculate the probability of detecting eclipses, assuming it is a binary. We find that the eclipse probability is ∼30%–50%, reaching higher values when the stellar binary is more eccentric or highly inclined relative to its orbit around Sgr A*.

Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.

2017-01-01

Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

Accuracy of transvaginal ultrasound for diagnosis of deep endometriosis in uterosacral ligaments, rectovaginal septum, vagina and bladder: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Guerriero, S; Ajossa, S; Minguez, J A; Jurado, M; Mais, V; Melis, G B; Alcazar, J L

2015-11-01

To review the diagnostic accuracy of transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) in the preoperative detection of endometriosis in the uterosacral ligaments (USL), rectovaginal septum (RVS), vagina and bladder in patients with clinical suspicion of deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE). An extensive search was performed in MEDLINE (PubMed) and EMBASE for studies published between January 1989 and December 2014. Studies were considered eligible if they reported on the use of TVS for the preoperative detection of endometriosis in the USL, RVS, vagina and bladder in women with clinical suspicion of DIE using the surgical data as a reference standard. Study quality was assessed using the PRISMA guidelines and QUADAS-2 tool. Of the 801 citations identified, 11 studies (n = 1583) were considered eligible and were included in the meta-analysis. For detection of endometriosis in the USL, the overall pooled sensitivity and specificity of TVS were 53% (95%CI, 35-70%) and 93% (95%CI, 83-97%), respectively. The pretest probability of USL endometriosis was 54%, which increased to 90% when suspicion of endometriosis was present after TVS examination. For detection of endometriosis in the RVS, the overall pooled sensitivity and specificity were 49% (95%CI, 36-62%) and 98% (95%CI, 95-99%), respectively. The pretest probability of RVS endometriosis was 24%, which increased to 89% when suspicion of endometriosis was present after TVS examination. For detection of vaginal endometriosis, the overall pooled sensitivity and specificity were 58% (95%CI, 40-74%) and 96% (95%CI, 87-99%), respectively. The pretest probability of vaginal endometriosis was 17%, which increased to 76% when suspicion of endometriosis was present after TVS assessment. Substantial heterogeneity was found for sensitivity and specificity for all these locations. For detection of bladder endometriosis, the overall pooled sensitivity and specificity were 62% (95%CI, 40-80%) and 100% (95%CI, 97-100%), respectively. Moderate heterogeneity was found for sensitivity and specificity for bladder endometriosis. The pretest probability of bladder endometriosis was 5%, which increased to 92% when suspicion of endometriosis was present after TVS assessment. Overall diagnostic performance of TVS for detecting DIE in uterosacral ligaments, rectovaginal septum, vagina and bladder is fair with high specificity. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seismic Characterization of EGS Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, D. C.; Pyle, M. L.; Matzel, E.; Myers, S.; Johannesson, G.

2014-12-01

To aid in the seismic characterization of Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS), we enhance the traditional microearthquake detection and location methodologies at two EGS systems. We apply the Matched Field Processing (MFP) seismic imaging technique to detect new seismic events using known discrete microearthquake sources. Events identified using MFP are typically smaller magnitude events or events that occur within the coda of a larger event. Additionally, we apply a Bayesian multiple-event seismic location algorithm, called MicroBayesLoc, to estimate the 95% probability ellipsoids for events with high signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Such probability ellipsoid information can provide evidence for determining if a seismic lineation could be real or simply within the anticipated error range. We apply this methodology to the Basel EGS data set and compare it to another EGS dataset. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Comparison of two MAC protocols based on LEO satellite networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Mingxiang; Wang, Ruichun

2009-12-01

With the development of LEO satellite communication, it is the basic requirement that various kinds of services will be provided. Considering that weak channel collision detection ability, long propagation delay and heavy load in LEO satellite communication system, a valid adaptive access control protocol APRMA is proposed. Different access probability functions for different services are obtained and appropriate access probabilities for voice and data users are updated slot by slot based on the estimation of the voice traffic and the channel status. Finally simulation results demonstrate that the performance of system is improved by the APRMA compared with the conventional PRMA, with an acceptable trade-off between QoS of voice and delay of data. Also the APRMA protocol will be suitable for HAPS (high altitude platform station) with the characters of weak channel collision detection ability, long propagation delay and heavy load.

Factors influencing detection of the federally endangered Diamond Darter Crystallaria cincotta: Implications for long-term monitoring strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizzo, Austin A.; Brown, Donald J.; Welsh, Stuart A.; Thompson, Patricia A.

2017-01-01

Population monitoring is an essential component of endangered species recovery programs. The federally endangered Diamond Darter Crystallaria cincotta is in need of an effective monitoring design to improve our understanding of its distribution and track population trends. Because of their small size, cryptic coloration, and nocturnal behavior, along with limitations associated with current sampling methods, individuals are difficult to detect at known occupied sites. Therefore, research is needed to determine if survey efforts can be improved by increasing probability of individual detection. The primary objective of this study was to determine if there are seasonal and diel patterns in Diamond Darter detectability during population surveys. In addition to temporal factors, we also assessed five habitat variables that might influence individual detection. We used N-mixture models to estimate site abundances and relationships between covariates and individual detectability and ranked models using Akaike's information criteria. During 2015 three known occupied sites were sampled 15 times each between May and Oct. The best supported model included water temperature as a quadratic function influencing individual detectability, with temperatures around 22 C resulting in the highest detection probability. Detection probability when surveying at the optimal temperature was approximately 6% and 7.5% greater than when surveying at 16 C and 29 C, respectively. Time of Night and day of year were not strong predictors of Diamond Darter detectability. The results of this study will allow researchers and agencies to maximize detection probability when surveying populations, resulting in greater monitoring efficiency and likely more precise abundance estimates.

DQE as detection probability of the radiation detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanella, Giovanni

2008-02-01

In this paper it is shown that quantum efficiency (DQE), as commonly defined for imaging detectors, can be extended to all radiation detectors with the meaning of detection probability, if Poisson statistics applies. This unified approach is possible in time-domain at zero spatial-frequency.

Network anomaly detection system with optimized DS evidence theory.

PubMed

Liu, Yuan; Wang, Xiaofeng; Liu, Kaiyu

2014-01-01

Network anomaly detection has been focused on by more people with the fast development of computer network. Some researchers utilized fusion method and DS evidence theory to do network anomaly detection but with low performance, and they did not consider features of network-complicated and varied. To achieve high detection rate, we present a novel network anomaly detection system with optimized Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (ODS) and regression basic probability assignment (RBPA) function. In this model, we add weights for each sensor to optimize DS evidence theory according to its previous predict accuracy. And RBPA employs sensor's regression ability to address complex network. By four kinds of experiments, we find that our novel network anomaly detection model has a better detection rate, and RBPA as well as ODS optimization methods can improve system performance significantly.

Network Anomaly Detection System with Optimized DS Evidence Theory

PubMed Central

Liu, Yuan; Wang, Xiaofeng; Liu, Kaiyu

2014-01-01

Network anomaly detection has been focused on by more people with the fast development of computer network. Some researchers utilized fusion method and DS evidence theory to do network anomaly detection but with low performance, and they did not consider features of network—complicated and varied. To achieve high detection rate, we present a novel network anomaly detection system with optimized Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (ODS) and regression basic probability assignment (RBPA) function. In this model, we add weights for each senor to optimize DS evidence theory according to its previous predict accuracy. And RBPA employs sensor's regression ability to address complex network. By four kinds of experiments, we find that our novel network anomaly detection model has a better detection rate, and RBPA as well as ODS optimization methods can improve system performance significantly. PMID:25254258

Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Simone, Andrea; Guth, Alan H.; Salem, Michael P.

2008-09-15

It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant {lambda} gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of {lambda} depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. A very promising method of regulation uses a scale-factor cutoff, which avoids a number of serious problems that arise in other approaches. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff avoids the 'youngness problem' (high probability of living in a much younger universe) and the 'Q and G catastrophes'more » (high probability for the primordial density contrast Q and gravitational constant G to have extremely large or small values). We apply the scale-factor cutoff measure to the probability distribution of {lambda}, considering both positive and negative values. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of {lambda} that are more than about 10 times the observed value. We also discuss qualitatively the prediction for the density parameter {omega}, indicating that with this measure there is a possibility of detectable negative curvature.« less

Assessment of imperfect detection of blister rust in whitebark pine within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Wilson J.; Irvine, Kathryn M.

2017-01-01

We examined data on white pine blister rust (blister rust) collected during the monitoring of whitebark pine trees in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (from 2004-2015). Summaries of repeat observations performed by multiple independent observers are reviewed and discussed. These summaries show variability among observers and the potential for errors being made in blister rust status. Based on this assessment, we utilized occupancy models to analyze blister rust prevalence while explicitly accounting for imperfect detection. Available covariates were used to model both the probability of a tree being infected with blister rust and the probability of an observer detecting the infection. The fitted model provided strong evidence that the probability of blister rust infection increases as tree diameter increases and decreases as site elevation increases. Most importantly, we found evidence of heterogeneity in detection probabilities related to tree size and average slope of a transect. These results suggested that detecting the presence of blister rust was more difficult in larger trees. Also, there was evidence that blister rust was easier to detect on transects located on steeper slopes. Our model accounted for potential impacts of observer experience on blister rust detection probabilities and also showed moderate variability among the different observers in their ability to detect blister rust. Based on these model results, we suggest that multiple observer sampling continue in future field seasons in order to allow blister rust prevalence estimates to be corrected for imperfect detection. We suggest that the multiple observer effort be spread out across many transects (instead of concentrated at a few each field season) while retaining the overall proportion of trees with multiple observers around 5-20%. Estimates of prevalence are confounded with detection unless it is explicitly accounted for in an analysis and we demonstrate how an occupancy model can be used to do account for this source of observation error.

Assessing the sensitivity of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Canada's cattle population, 2009-2013.

PubMed

El Allaki, Farouk; Harrington, Noel; Howden, Krista

2016-11-01

The objectives of this study were (1) to estimate the annual sensitivity of Canada's bTB surveillance system and its three system components (slaughter surveillance, export testing and disease investigation) using a scenario tree modelling approach, and (2) to identify key model parameters that influence the estimates of the surveillance system sensitivity (SSSe). To achieve these objectives, we designed stochastic scenario tree models for three surveillance system components included in the analysis. Demographic data, slaughter data, export testing data, and disease investigation data from 2009 to 2013 were extracted for input into the scenario trees. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key influential parameters on SSSe estimates. The median annual SSSe estimates generated from the study were very high, ranging from 0.95 (95% probability interval [PI]: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). Median annual sensitivity estimates for the slaughter surveillance component ranged from 0.95 (95% PI: 0.88-0.98) to 0.97 (95% PI: 0.93-0.99). This shows that slaughter surveillance to be the major contributor to overall surveillance system sensitivity with a high probability to detect M. bovis infection if present at a prevalence of 0.00028% or greater during the study period. The export testing and disease investigation components had extremely low component sensitivity estimates-the maximum median sensitivity estimates were 0.02 (95% PI: 0.014-0.023) and 0.0061 (95% PI: 0.0056-0.0066) respectively. The three most influential input parameters on the model's output (SSSe) were the probability of a granuloma being detected at slaughter inspection, the probability of a granuloma being present in older animals (≥12 months of age), and the probability of a granuloma sample being submitted to the laboratory. Additional studies are required to reduce the levels of uncertainty and variability associated with these three parameters influencing the surveillance system sensitivity. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Equalization and detection for digital communication over nonlinear bandlimited satellite communication channels. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutierrez, Alberto, Jr.

1995-01-01

This dissertation evaluates receiver-based methods for mitigating the effects due to nonlinear bandlimited signal distortion present in high data rate satellite channels. The effects of the nonlinear bandlimited distortion is illustrated for digitally modulated signals. A lucid development of the low-pass Volterra discrete time model for a nonlinear communication channel is presented. In addition, finite-state machine models are explicitly developed for a nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. A nonlinear fixed equalizer based on Volterra series has previously been studied for compensation of noiseless signal distortion due to a nonlinear satellite channel. This dissertation studies adaptive Volterra equalizers on a downlink-limited nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. We employ as figure of merits performance in the mean-square error and probability of error senses. In addition, a receiver consisting of a fractionally-spaced equalizer (FSE) followed by a Volterra equalizer (FSE-Volterra) is found to give improvement beyond that gained by the Volterra equalizer. Significant probability of error performance improvement is found for multilevel modulation schemes. Also, it is found that probability of error improvement is more significant for modulation schemes, constant amplitude and multilevel, which require higher signal to noise ratios (i.e., higher modulation orders) for reliable operation. The maximum likelihood sequence detection (MLSD) receiver for a nonlinear satellite channel, a bank of matched filters followed by a Viterbi detector, serves as a probability of error lower bound for the Volterra and FSE-Volterra equalizers. However, this receiver has not been evaluated for a specific satellite channel. In this work, an MLSD receiver is evaluated for a specific downlink-limited satellite channel. Because of the bank of matched filters, the MLSD receiver may be high in complexity. Consequently, the probability of error performance of a more practical suboptimal MLSD receiver, requiring only a single receive filter, is evaluated.

Individual heterogeneity and identifiability in capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2004-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities is a far more serious problem for capture-recapture modeling than has previously been recognized. In this note, I illustrate that population size is not an identifiable parameter under the general closed population mark-recapture model Mh. The problem of identifiability is obvious if the population includes individuals with pi = 0, but persists even when it is assumed that individual detection probabilities are bounded away from zero. Identifiability may be attained within parametric families of distributions for pi, but not among parametric families of distributions. Consequently, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability, capture-recapture analysis is strongly model dependent.

Probability of detection of defects in coatings with electronic shearography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maddux, Gary A.; Horton, Charles M.; Lansing, Matthew D.; Gnacek, William J.; Newton, Patrick L.

1994-07-01

The goal of this research was to utilize statistical methods to evaluate the probability of detection (POD) of defects in coatings using electronic shearography. The coating system utilized in the POD studies was to be the paint system currently utilized on the external casings of the NASA Space Transportation System (STS) Revised Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) boosters. The population of samples was to be large enough to determine the minimum defect size for 90 percent probability of detection of 95 percent confidence POD on these coatings. Also, the best methods to excite coatings on aerospace components to induce deformations for measurement by electronic shearography were to be determined.

Probability of detection of defects in coatings with electronic shearography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddux, Gary A.; Horton, Charles M.; Lansing, Matthew D.; Gnacek, William J.; Newton, Patrick L.

1994-01-01

The goal of this research was to utilize statistical methods to evaluate the probability of detection (POD) of defects in coatings using electronic shearography. The coating system utilized in the POD studies was to be the paint system currently utilized on the external casings of the NASA Space Transportation System (STS) Revised Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) boosters. The population of samples was to be large enough to determine the minimum defect size for 90 percent probability of detection of 95 percent confidence POD on these coatings. Also, the best methods to excite coatings on aerospace components to induce deformations for measurement by electronic shearography were to be determined.

On the sensitivity of TG-119 and IROC credentialing to TPS commissioning errors.

PubMed

McVicker, Drew; Yin, Fang-Fang; Adamson, Justus D

2016-01-08

We investigate the sensitivity of IMRT commissioning using the TG-119 C-shape phantom and credentialing with the IROC head and neck phantom to treatment planning system commissioning errors. We introduced errors into the various aspects of the commissioning process for a 6X photon energy modeled using the analytical anisotropic algorithm within a commercial treatment planning system. Errors were implemented into the various components of the dose calculation algorithm including primary photons, secondary photons, electron contamination, and MLC parameters. For each error we evaluated the probability that it could be committed unknowingly during the dose algorithm commissioning stage, and the probability of it being identified during the verification stage. The clinical impact of each commissioning error was evaluated using representative IMRT plans including low and intermediate risk prostate, head and neck, mesothelioma, and scalp; the sensitivity of the TG-119 and IROC phantoms was evaluated by comparing dosimetric changes to the dose planes where film measurements occur and change in point doses where dosimeter measurements occur. No commissioning errors were found to have both a low probability of detection and high clinical severity. When errors do occur, the IROC credentialing and TG 119 commissioning criteria are generally effective at detecting them; however, for the IROC phantom, OAR point-dose measurements are the most sensitive despite being currently excluded from IROC analysis. Point-dose measurements with an absolute dose constraint were the most effective at detecting errors, while film analysis using a gamma comparison and the IROC film distance to agreement criteria were less effective at detecting the specific commissioning errors implemented here.

Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

2015-12-01

Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

Detection of image structures using the Fisher information and the Rao metric.

PubMed

Maybank, Stephen J

2004-12-01

In many detection problems, the structures to be detected are parameterized by the points of a parameter space. If the conditional probability density function for the measurements is known, then detection can be achieved by sampling the parameter space at a finite number of points and checking each point to see if the corresponding structure is supported by the data. The number of samples and the distances between neighboring samples are calculated using the Rao metric on the parameter space. The Rao metric is obtained from the Fisher information which is, in turn, obtained from the conditional probability density function. An upper bound is obtained for the probability of a false detection. The calculations are simplified in the low noise case by making an asymptotic approximation to the Fisher information. An application to line detection is described. Expressions are obtained for the asymptotic approximation to the Fisher information, the volume of the parameter space, and the number of samples. The time complexity for line detection is estimated. An experimental comparison is made with a Hough transform-based method for detecting lines.

Depletion of highly abundant proteins in blood plasma by ammonium sulfate precipitation for 2D-PAGE analysis.

PubMed

Mahn, Andrea; Ismail, Maritza

2011-11-15

Ammonium sulfate precipitation (ASP) was explored as a method for depleting some highly abundant proteins from blood plasma, in order to reduce the dynamic range of protein concentration and to improve the detection of low abundance proteins by 2D-PAGE. 40% ammonium sulfate saturation was chosen since it allowed depleting 39% albumin and 82% α-1-antitrypsin. ASP-depletion showed high reproducibility in 2D-PAGE analysis (4.2% variation in relative abundance of albumin), similar to that offered by commercial affinity-depletion columns. Besides, it allowed detecting 59 spots per gel, very close to the number of spots detected in immuno-affinity-depleted plasma. Thus, ASP at 40% saturation is a reliable depletion method that may help in proteomic analysis of blood plasma. Finally, ASP-depletion seems to be complementary to hydrophobic interaction chromatography (HIC)-depletion, and therefore an ASP-step followed by a HIC-step could probably deplete the most highly abundant plasma proteins, thus improving the detection of low abundance proteins by 2D-PAGE. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Associations among milk production and rectal temperature on pregnancy maintenance in lactating recipient dairy cows.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, J L M; Cooke, R F; Jardina, D T G; Aragon, F L; Veras, M B; Soriano, S; Sobreira, N; Scarpa, A B

2011-09-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the associations among milk production, rectal temperature, and pregnancy maintenance in lactating recipient dairy cows. Data were collected during an 11-mo period from 463 Holstein cows (203 primiparous and 260 multiparous) assigned to a fixed-time embryo transfer (ET) protocol. Only cows detected with a visible corpus luteum immediately prior to ET were used. Rectal temperatures were collected from all cows on the same day of ET. Milk production at ET was calculated by averaging individual daily milk production during the 7d preceding ET. Pregnancy diagnosis was performed by transrectal ultrasonography 21d after ET. Cows were ranked and assigned to groups according to median milk production (median=35kg/d; HPROD=above median; LPROD=below median) and rectal temperature (≤39.0°C=LTEMP; >39.0°C=HTEMP). A milk production×temperature group interaction was detected (P=0.04) for pregnancy analysis because HTEMP cows ranked as LPROD were 3.1 time more likely to maintain pregnancy compared with HTEMP cows ranked as HPROD (P=0.03). Milk production did not affect (P=0.55) odds of pregnancy maintenance within LTEMP cows, however, and no differences in odds of pregnancy maintenance were detected between HTEMP and LTEMP within milk production groups (P>0.11). Within HTEMP cows, increased milk production decreased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly, whereas within LTEMP cows, increased milk production increased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly. Within HPROD, increased rectal temperature decreased the probability of pregnancy maintenance linearly, whereas within LPROD cows, no associations between rectal temperatures and probability of cows to maintain pregnancy were detected. In summary, high-producing dairy cows with rectal temperatures below 39.0°C did not experience reduced pregnancy maintenance to ET compared to cohorts with reduced milk production. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetter, Nathan J.; Gardner, Beth; Schweitzer, Sara H.; Boettcher, Ruth; Wilke, Alexandra L.; Addison, Lindsay; Swilling, William R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2015-01-01

The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk−1). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N-mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season−1. Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

Responses of orchids to habitat change in Corsica over 27 years.

PubMed

Vogt-Schilb, Hélène; Pradel, Roger; Geniez, Philippe; Hugot, Laetitia; Delage, Alain; Richard, Franck; Schatz, Bertrand

2016-07-01

Orchids are known to be particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their narrow ranges of secondary successional habitats. Lack of data at the community level limits our ability to evaluate how traits of different species influence their responses to habitat change. Here, we used a diachronic survey of Mediterranean orchid communities in Corsica to examine this question. Using data from two field surveys conducted 27 years apart (1982-84 and 2009-11) at the same 45 sites in Corsica, we evaluated the impact of increase in woody plant cover (WPC) on (i) the richness and composition and (ii) the local extinction/colonization dynamics of orchids. We applied a Bayesian multispecies site-occupancy model to each of the 36 orchid species recorded at these sites to estimate the detection probability of each species, enabling us to account for under-detection in estimating their dynamics. Between 1982 and 2011, WPC changed at 82·3 % of sites (increasing at 75·6 %, decreasing at 6·7 %). Despite marked changes in composition of orchid communities at the local scale, no significant change was detected in species richness at the regional scale. Canopy closure affected the probability of new colonization of sites, but had no significant influence on the probability of local extinction. However, the abundance of shade-intolerant species declined more sharply than that of shade-requiring species. Among orchid species, the detection probability was significantly and positively correlated with population density and plant height. This study reveals contrasted dynamics of orchid communities between local and regional scales in Corsica. Although high turnover in communities was found at the local scale, regional species richness was maintained despite major land-use changes. Conserving landscape mosaics could provide locally suitable habitats for orchids of different ecologies to maintain diversity at larger spatial scales. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squires, K. C.; Squires, N. K.; Hillyard, S. A.

1974-01-01

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Estimating nest detection probabilities for white-winged dove nest transects in Tamaulipas, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Tomlinson, R.E.; Waggerman, G.

1986-01-01

Nest transects in nesting colonies provide one source of information on White-winged Dove (Zenaida asiatica asiatica) population status and reproduction. Nests are counted along transects using standardized field methods each year in Texas and northeastern Mexico by personnel associated with Mexico's Office of Flora and Fauna, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Nest counts on transects are combined with information on the size of nesting colonies to estimate total numbers of nests in sampled colonies. Historically, these estimates have been based on the actual nest counts on transects and thus have required the assumption that all nests lying within transect boundaries are detected (seen) with a probability of one. Our objectives were to test the hypothesis that nest detection probability is one and, if rejected, to estimate this probability.

A New Random Walk for Replica Detection in WSNs.

PubMed

Aalsalem, Mohammed Y; Khan, Wazir Zada; Saad, N M; Hossain, Md Shohrab; Atiquzzaman, Mohammed; Khan, Muhammad Khurram

2016-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are vulnerable to Node Replication attacks or Clone attacks. Among all the existing clone detection protocols in WSNs, RAWL shows the most promising results by employing Simple Random Walk (SRW). More recently, RAND outperforms RAWL by incorporating Network Division with SRW. Both RAND and RAWL have used SRW for random selection of witness nodes which is problematic because of frequently revisiting the previously passed nodes that leads to longer delays, high expenditures of energy with lower probability that witness nodes intersect. To circumvent this problem, we propose to employ a new kind of constrained random walk, namely Single Stage Memory Random Walk and present a distributed technique called SSRWND (Single Stage Memory Random Walk with Network Division). In SSRWND, single stage memory random walk is combined with network division aiming to decrease the communication and memory costs while keeping the detection probability higher. Through intensive simulations it is verified that SSRWND guarantees higher witness node security with moderate communication and memory overheads. SSRWND is expedient for security oriented application fields of WSNs like military and medical.

A New Random Walk for Replica Detection in WSNs

PubMed Central

Aalsalem, Mohammed Y.; Saad, N. M.; Hossain, Md. Shohrab; Atiquzzaman, Mohammed; Khan, Muhammad Khurram

2016-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are vulnerable to Node Replication attacks or Clone attacks. Among all the existing clone detection protocols in WSNs, RAWL shows the most promising results by employing Simple Random Walk (SRW). More recently, RAND outperforms RAWL by incorporating Network Division with SRW. Both RAND and RAWL have used SRW for random selection of witness nodes which is problematic because of frequently revisiting the previously passed nodes that leads to longer delays, high expenditures of energy with lower probability that witness nodes intersect. To circumvent this problem, we propose to employ a new kind of constrained random walk, namely Single Stage Memory Random Walk and present a distributed technique called SSRWND (Single Stage Memory Random Walk with Network Division). In SSRWND, single stage memory random walk is combined with network division aiming to decrease the communication and memory costs while keeping the detection probability higher. Through intensive simulations it is verified that SSRWND guarantees higher witness node security with moderate communication and memory overheads. SSRWND is expedient for security oriented application fields of WSNs like military and medical. PMID:27409082

Probabilistic Surface Characterization for Safe Landing Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Andrew E. (Inventor); Ivanov, Tonislav I. (Inventor); Huertas, Andres (Inventor)

2015-01-01

Apparatuses, systems, computer programs and methods for performing hazard detection and avoidance for landing vehicles are provided. Hazard assessment takes into consideration the geometry of the lander. Safety probabilities are computed for a plurality of pixels in a digital elevation map. The safety probabilities are combined for pixels associated with one or more aim points and orientations. A worst case probability value is assigned to each of the one or more aim points and orientations.

Identifying the missing proteins in human proteome by biological language model.

PubMed

Dong, Qiwen; Wang, Kai; Liu, Xuan

2016-12-23

With the rapid development of high-throughput sequencing technology, the proteomics research becomes a trendy field in the post genomics era. It is necessary to identify all the native-encoding protein sequences for further function and pathway analysis. Toward that end, the Human Proteome Organization lunched the Human Protein Project in 2011. However many proteins are hard to be detected by experiment methods, which becomes one of the bottleneck in Human Proteome Project. In consideration of the complicatedness of detecting these missing proteins by using wet-experiment approach, here we use bioinformatics method to pre-filter the missing proteins. Since there are analogy between the biological sequences and natural language, the n-gram models from Natural Language Processing field has been used to filter the missing proteins. The dataset used in this study contains 616 missing proteins from the "uncertain" category of the neXtProt database. There are 102 proteins deduced by the n-gram model, which have high probability to be native human proteins. We perform a detail analysis on the predicted structure and function of these missing proteins and also compare the high probability proteins with other mass spectrum datasets. The evaluation shows that the results reported here are in good agreement with those obtained by other well-established databases. The analysis shows that 102 proteins may be native gene-coding proteins and some of the missing proteins are membrane or natively disordered proteins which are hard to be detected by experiment methods.

Evaluation of Correlation between Pretest Probability for Clostridium difficile Infection and Clostridium difficile Enzyme Immunoassay Results.

PubMed

Kwon, Jennie H; Reske, Kimberly A; Hink, Tiffany; Burnham, C A; Dubberke, Erik R

2017-02-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients tested for Clostridium difficile and determine the correlation between pretest probability for C. difficile infection (CDI) and assay results. Patients with testing ordered for C. difficile were enrolled and assigned a high, medium, or low pretest probability of CDI based on clinical evaluation, laboratory, and imaging results. Stool was tested for C. difficile by toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and toxigenic culture (TC). Chi-square analyses and the log rank test were utilized. Among the 111 patients enrolled, stool samples from nine were TC positive and four were EIA positive. Sixty-one (55%) patients had clinically significant diarrhea, 19 (17%) patients did not, and clinically significant diarrhea could not be determined for 31 (28%) patients. Seventy-two (65%) patients were assessed as having a low pretest probability of having CDI, 34 (31%) as having a medium probability, and 5 (5%) as having a high probability. None of the patients with low pretest probabilities had a positive EIA, but four were TC positive. None of the seven patients with a positive TC but a negative index EIA developed CDI within 30 days after the index test or died within 90 days after the index toxin EIA date. Pretest probability for CDI should be considered prior to ordering C. difficile testing and must be taken into account when interpreting test results. CDI is a clinical diagnosis supported by laboratory data, and the detection of toxigenic C. difficile in stool does not necessarily confirm the diagnosis of CDI. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

[Isolation and identification of Cronobacter (Enterobacter sakazakii) strains from food].

PubMed

Dong, Xiaohui; Li, Chengsi; Wu, Qingping; Zhang, Jumei; Mo, Shuping; Guo, Weipeng; Yang, Xiaojuan; Xu, Xiaoke

2013-05-04

This study aimed to detect and quantify Cronobacter in 300 powdered milk samples and 50 non-powdered milk samples. Totally, 24 Cronobacter (formerly Enterobacter sakazakii) strains isolated from powdered milk and other foods were identified and confirmed. Cronobacter strains were detected quantitatively using most probable number (MPN) method and molecular detection method. We identified 24 Cronobacter strains using biochemical patterns, including indole production and dulcitol, malonate, melezitose, turanose, and myo-Inositol utilization. Of the 24 strains, their 16S rRNA genes were sequenced, and constructed phylogenetic tree by N-J (Neighbour-Joining) with the 16S rRNA gene sequences of 17 identified Cronobacter strains and 10 non-Cronobacter strains. Quantitative detection showed that Cronobacter strains were detected in 23 out of 350 samples yielding 6.6% detection rate. Twenty-four Cronobacter strains were isolated from 23 samples and the Cronobacter was more than 100 MPN/100g in 4 samples out of 23 samples. The 24 Cronobacter spp. isolates strains were identified and confirmed, including 19 Cronobacter sakazakii strains, 2 C. malonaticus strains, 2 C. dubliensis subsp. lactaridi strains, and 1 C. muytjensii strain. The combination of molecular detection method and most probable number (MPN) method could be suitable for the detection of Cronobacter in powdered milk, with low rate of contamination and high demand of quantitative detection. 24 isolated strains were confirmed and identified by biochemical patterns and molecular technology, and C. sakazakii could be the dominant species. The problem of Cronobacter in powdered milk should be a hidden danger to nurseling, and should catch the government and consumer's attention.

Partitioned-Interval Quantum Optical Communications Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, Victor A.

2013-01-01

The proposed quantum receiver in this innovation partitions each binary signal interval into two unequal segments: a short "pre-measurement" segment in the beginning of the symbol interval used to make an initial guess with better probability than 50/50 guessing, and a much longer segment used to make the high-sensitivity signal detection via field-cancellation and photon-counting detection. It was found that by assigning as little as 10% of the total signal energy to the pre-measurement segment, the initial 50/50 guess can be improved to about 70/30, using the best available measurements such as classical coherent or "optimized Kennedy" detection.

Vector dark energy and high-z massive clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlesi, Edoardo; Knebe, Alexander; Yepes, Gustavo; Gottlöber, Stefan; Jiménez, Jose Beltrán.; Maroto, Antonio L.

2011-12-01

The detection of extremely massive clusters at z > 1 such as SPT-CL J0546-5345, SPT-CL J2106-5844 and XMMU J2235.3-2557 has been considered by some authors as a challenge to the standard Λ cold dark matter cosmology. In fact, assuming Gaussian initial conditions, the theoretical expectation of detecting such objects is as low as ≤1 per cent. In this paper we discuss the probability of the existence of such objects in the light of the vector dark energy paradigm, showing by means of a series of N-body simulations that chances of detection are substantially enhanced in this non-standard framework.

First detection of bluetongue virus serotype 14 in Poland.

PubMed

Orłowska, Anna; Trębas, Paweł; Smreczak, Marcin; Marzec, Anna; Żmudziński, Jan F

2016-07-01

Here, we present the first detected cases of bluetongue virus (BTV) in native cattle from Poland. The virus was found in animals located near the Polish-Belarusian and Polish-Lithuanian borders. The positive animals were detected through an official epidemiological surveillance program. A combination of type-specific real-time RT-PCR and phylogenetic tests revealed the presence of BTV serotype 14 (BTV-14). This serotype is highly homologous to the vaccine strain and BTV-14 present in Russia, Lithuania, and Spain (from an animal imported from Lithuania). The most probable route of virus introduction to Poland was transmission through midges. All of the cases were subclinical.

Stream permanence influences crayfish occupancy and abundance in the Ozark Highlands, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yarra, Allyson N.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Crayfish use of intermittent streams is especially important to understand in the face of global climate change. We examined the influence of stream permanence and local habitat on crayfish occupancy and species densities in the Ozark Highlands, USA. We sampled in June and July 2014 and 2015. We used a quantitative kick–seine method to sample crayfish presence and abundance at 20 stream sites with 32 surveys/site in the Upper White River drainage, and we measured associated local environmental variables each year. We modeled site occupancy and detection probabilities with the software PRESENCE, and we used multiple linear regressions to identify relationships between crayfish species densities and environmental variables. Occupancy of all crayfish species was related to stream permanence. Faxonius meeki was found exclusively in intermittent streams, whereas Faxonius neglectus and Faxonius luteushad higher occupancy and detection probability in permanent than in intermittent streams, and Faxonius williamsi was associated with intermittent streams. Estimates of detection probability ranged from 0.56 to 1, which is high relative to values found by other investigators. With the exception of F. williamsi, species densities were largely related to stream permanence rather than local habitat. Species densities did not differ by year, but total crayfish densities were significantly lower in 2015 than 2014. Increased precipitation and discharge in 2015 probably led to the lower crayfish densities observed during this year. Our study demonstrates that crayfish distribution and abundance is strongly influenced by stream permanence. Some species, including those of conservation concern (i.e., F. williamsi, F. meeki), appear dependent on intermittent streams, and conservation efforts should include consideration of intermittent streams as an important component of freshwater biodiversity.

Lake Sturgeon, Lake Whitefish, and Walleye egg deposition patterns with response to fish spawning substrate restoration in the St. Clair–Detroit River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, Jason L.; Pritt, Jeremy J.; Roseman, Edward; Prichard, Carson G.; Craig, Jaquelyn M.; Kennedy, Gregory W.; Manny, Bruce A.

2018-01-01

Egg deposition and use of restored spawning substrates by lithophilic fishes (e.g., Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens, Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis, and Walleye Sander vitreus) were assessed throughout the St. Clair–Detroit River system from 2005 to 2016. Bayesian models were used to quantify egg abundance and presence/absence relative to site-specific variables (e.g., depth, velocity, and artificial spawning reef presence) and temperature to evaluate fish use of restored artificial spawning reefs and assess patterns in egg deposition. Lake Whitefish and Walleye egg abundance, probability of detection, and probability of occupancy were assessed with detection-adjusted methods; Lake Sturgeon egg abundance and probability of occurrence were assessed using delta-lognormal methods. The models indicated that the probability of Walleye eggs occupying a site increased with water velocity and that the rate of increase decreased with depth, whereas Lake Whitefish egg occupancy was not correlated with any of the attributes considered. Egg deposition by Lake Whitefish and Walleyes was greater at sites with high water velocities and was lower over artificial spawning reefs. Lake Sturgeon eggs were collected least frequently but were more likely to be collected over artificial spawning reefs and in greater abundances than elsewhere. Detection-adjusted egg abundances were not greater over artificial spawning reefs, indicating that these projects may not directly benefit spawning Walleyes and Lake Whitefish. However, 98% of the Lake Sturgeon eggs observed were collected over artificial spawning reefs, supporting the hypothesis that the reefs provided spawning sites for Lake Sturgeon and could mitigate historic losses of Lake Sturgeon spawning habitat.

Distributed Denial of Service Attack Source Detection Using Efficient Traceback Technique (ETT) in Cloud-Assisted Healthcare Environment.

PubMed

Latif, Rabia; Abbas, Haider; Latif, Seemab; Masood, Ashraf

2016-07-01

Security and privacy are the first and foremost concerns that should be given special attention when dealing with Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs). As WBAN sensors operate in an unattended environment and carry critical patient health information, Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack is one of the major attacks in WBAN environment that not only exhausts the available resources but also influence the reliability of information being transmitted. This research work is an extension of our previous work in which a machine learning based attack detection algorithm is proposed to detect DDoS attack in WBAN environment. However, in order to avoid complexity, no consideration was given to the traceback mechanism. During traceback, the challenge lies in reconstructing the attack path leading to identify the attack source. Among existing traceback techniques, Probabilistic Packet Marking (PPM) approach is the most commonly used technique in conventional IP- based networks. However, since marking probability assignment has significant effect on both the convergence time and performance of a scheme, it is not directly applicable in WBAN environment due to high convergence time and overhead on intermediate nodes. Therefore, in this paper we have proposed a new scheme called Efficient Traceback Technique (ETT) based on Dynamic Probability Packet Marking (DPPM) approach and uses MAC header in place of IP header. Instead of using fixed marking probability, the proposed scheme uses variable marking probability based on the number of hops travelled by a packet to reach the target node. Finally, path reconstruction algorithms are proposed to traceback an attacker. Evaluation and simulation results indicate that the proposed solution outperforms fixed PPM in terms of convergence time and computational overhead on nodes.

Computer-aided mathematical analysis of probability of intercept for ground-based communication intercept system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Sang Chul

1989-09-01

We develop a mathematical analysis model to calculate the probability of intercept (POI) for the ground-based communication intercept (COMINT) system. The POI is a measure of the effectiveness of the intercept system. We define the POI as the product of the probability of detection and the probability of coincidence. The probability of detection is a measure of the receiver's capability to detect a signal in the presence of noise. The probability of coincidence is the probability that an intercept system is available, actively listening in the proper frequency band, in the right direction and at the same time that the signal is received. We investigate the behavior of the POI with respect to the observation time, the separation distance, antenna elevations, the frequency of the signal, and the receiver bandwidths. We observe that the coincidence characteristic between the receiver scanning parameters and the signal parameters is the key factor to determine the time to obtain a given POI. This model can be used to find the optimal parameter combination to maximize the POI in a given scenario. We expand this model to a multiple system. This analysis is conducted on a personal computer to provide the portability. The model is also flexible and can be easily implemented under different situations.

Seismic Characterization of the Newberry and Cooper Basin EGS Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, D. C.; Wang, J.; Goebel, M.; Johannesson, G.; Myers, S. C.; Harris, D.; Cladouhos, T. T.

2015-12-01

To aid in the seismic characterization of Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS), we enhance traditional microearthquake detection and location methodologies at two EGS systems: the Newberry EGS site and the Habanero EGS site in the Cooper Basin of South Australia. We apply the Matched Field Processing (MFP) seismic imaging technique to detect new seismic events using known discrete microearthquake sources. Events identified using MFP typically have smaller magnitudes or occur within the coda of a larger event. Additionally, we apply a Bayesian multiple-event location algorithm, called MicroBayesLoc, to estimate the 95% probability ellipsoids for events with high signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Such probability ellipsoid information can provide evidence for determining if a seismic lineation is real, or simply within the anticipated error range. At the Newberry EGS site, 235 events were reported in the original catalog. MFP identified 164 additional events (an increase of over 70% more events). For the relocated events in the Newberry catalog, we can distinguish two distinct seismic swarms that fall outside of one another's 95% probability error ellipsoids.This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Use of probability analysis to establish routine bioassay screening levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carbaugh, E.H.; Sula, M.J.; McFadden, K.M.

1990-09-01

Probability analysis was used by the Hanford Internal Dosimetry Program to establish bioassay screening levels for tritium and uranium in urine. Background environmental levels of these two radionuclides are generally detectable by the highly sensitive urine analysis procedures routinely used at Hanford. Establishing screening levels requires balancing the impact of false detection with the consequence of potentially undetectable occupation dose. To establish the screening levels, tritium and uranium analyses were performed on urine samples collected from workers exposed only to environmental sources. All samples were collected at home using a simulated 12-hour protocol for tritium and a simulated 24-hour collectionmore » protocol for uranium. Results of the analyses of these samples were ranked according to tritium concentration or total sample uranium. The cumulative percentile was calculated and plotted using log-probability coordinates. Geometric means and screening levels corresponding to various percentiles were estimated by graphical interpolation and standard calculations. The potentially annual internal dose associated with a screening level was calculated. Screening levels were selected corresponding to the 99.9 percentile, implying that, on the average, 1 out of 1000 samples collected from an unexposed worker population would be expected to exceed the screening level. 4 refs., 2 figs.« less

The implications of shedder status and background DNA on direct and secondary transfer in an attack scenario.

PubMed

Fonneløp, Ane Elida; Ramse, Merete; Egeland, Thore; Gill, Peter

2017-07-01

In court questions are often raised related to how trace DNA was deposited, directly during the crime or innocently for instance by secondary transfer. It is therefore of interest to have knowledge of the probability of transfer or secondary transfer in different situations. Factors that could influence transfer probabilities are background DNA and the shedder status of the involved persons. In this study, we have classified participants as high or low DNA shedders. We observed DNA transfer in a simulated attack scenario, and demonstrated that shedder status has a significant influence of transfer rates. We have examined the background DNA in samples from T-shirts worn in an area with frequent human traffic and detected multiple contributors. We further demonstrated that DNA from co-workers of a T-shirt wearer can be secondarily transferred from the environment and detected in samples, and that the composition of background DNA is correlated with the shedder status of the wearer. Finally, we have illustrated the inference with the results of transfer probabilities and a fictive case with the use of a Bayesian network. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The high-energy view of the broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballo, L.; Braito, V.; Reeves, J. N.; Sambruna, R. M.; Tombesi, F.

2011-12-01

We present the analysis of Suzaku and XMM-Newton observations of the broad-line radio galaxy (BLRG) 3C 111. Its high-energy emission shows variability, a harder continuum with respect to the radio-quiet active galactic nucleus population, and weak reflection features. Suzaku found the source in a minimum flux level; a comparison with the XMM-Newton data implies an increase of a factor of 2.5 in the 0.5-10 keV flux, in the 6 months separating the two observations. The iron K complex is detected in both data sets, with rather low equivalent width(s). The intensity of the iron K complex does not respond to the change in continuum flux. An ultrafast, high-ionization outflowing gas is clearly detected in the Suzaku/X-ray Imaging Spectrometer data; the absorber is most likely unstable. Indeed, during the XMM-Newton observation, which was 6 months after, the absorber was not detected. No clear rollover in the hard X-ray emission is detected, probably due to the emergence of the jet as a dominant component in the hard X-ray band, as suggested by the detection above ˜100 keV with the GSO onboard Suzaku, although the present data do not allow us to firmly constrain the relative contribution of the different components. The fluxes observed by the γ-ray satellites CGRO and Fermi would be compatible with the putative jet component if peaking at energies E˜ 100 MeV. In the X-ray band, the jet contribution to the continuum starts to be significant only above 10 keV. If the detection of the jet component in 3C 111 is confirmed, then its relative importance in the X-ray energy band could explain the different observed properties in the high-energy emission of BLRGs, which are otherwise similar in their other multiwavelength properties. Comparison between X-ray and γ-ray data taken at different epochs suggests that the strong variability observed for 3C 111 is probably driven by a change in the primary continuum.

Development and Testing of a Multiple Frequency Continuous Wave Radar for Target Detection and Classification

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

1 2’ VIH " 1 ’ 󈧏) (34) where is the modified Bessel function of zero order. Here is the conditional variance and is the conditional probability...10, the probability of detection is the area under the signal-plus-noise curve above the detection threshold co M vF (V 2+ A2)]10 ( vAPd= fnp~ju,( vIH

Ellipticity angle of electromagnetic signals and its use for non-energetic detection optimal by the Neumann-Pearson criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, V. A.; Sharygin, G. S.; Mironov, M. V.

2012-08-01

An interval method of radar signal detection and selection based on non-energetic polarization parameter - the ellipticity angle - is suggested. The examined method is optimal by the Neumann-Pearson criterion. The probability of correct detection for a preset probability of false alarm is calculated for different signal/noise ratios. Recommendations for optimization of the given method are provided.

Probability cueing of distractor locations: both intertrial facilitation and statistical learning mediate interference reduction.

PubMed

Goschy, Harriet; Bakos, Sarolta; Müller, Hermann J; Zehetleitner, Michael

2014-01-01

Targets in a visual search task are detected faster if they appear in a probable target region as compared to a less probable target region, an effect which has been termed "probability cueing." The present study investigated whether probability cueing cannot only speed up target detection, but also minimize distraction by distractors in probable distractor regions as compared to distractors in less probable distractor regions. To this end, three visual search experiments with a salient, but task-irrelevant, distractor ("additional singleton") were conducted. Experiment 1 demonstrated that observers can utilize uneven spatial distractor distributions to selectively reduce interference by distractors in frequent distractor regions as compared to distractors in rare distractor regions. Experiments 2 and 3 showed that intertrial facilitation, i.e., distractor position repetitions, and statistical learning (independent of distractor position repetitions) both contribute to the probability cueing effect for distractor locations. Taken together, the present results demonstrate that probability cueing of distractor locations has the potential to serve as a strong attentional cue for the shielding of likely distractor locations.

Probability of Detection Study on Impact Damage to Honeycomb Composite Structure using Thermographic Inspection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodge, Andrew J.; Walker, James L., II

2008-01-01

A probability of detection study was performed for the detection of impact damage using flash heating infrared thermography on a full scale honeycomb composite structure. The honeycomb structure was an intertank structure from a previous NASA technology demonstration program. The intertank was fabricated from IM7/8552 carbon fiber/epoxy facesheets and aluminum honeycomb core. The intertank was impacted in multiple locations with a range of impact energies utilizing a spherical indenter. In a single blind study, the intertank was inspected with thermography before and after impact damage was incurred. Following thermographic inspection several impact sites were sectioned from the intertank and cross-sectioned for microscopic comparisons of NDE detection and actual damage incurred. The study concluded that thermographic inspection was a good method of detecting delamination damage incurred by impact. The 90/95 confidence level on the probability of detection was close to the impact energy that delaminations were first observed through cross-sectional analysis.

Factors influencing the detection of beach plastic debris.

PubMed

Lavers, Jennifer L; Oppel, Steffen; Bond, Alexander L

2016-08-01

Marine plastic pollution is a global problem with considerable ecological and economic consequences. Quantifying the amount of plastic in the ocean has been facilitated by surveys of accumulated plastic on beaches, but existing monitoring programmes assume the proportion of plastic detected during beach surveys is constant across time and space. Here we use a multi-observer experiment to assess what proportion of small plastic fragments is missed routinely by observers, and what factors influence the detection probability of different types of plastic. Detection probability across the various types of plastic ranged from 60 to 100%, and varied considerably by observer, observer experience, and biological material present on the beach that could be confused with plastic. Blue fragments had the highest detection probability, while white fragments had the lowest. We recommend long-term monitoring programmes adopt survey designs accounting for imperfect detection or at least assess the proportion of fragments missed by observers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

False alarm reduction by the And-ing of multiple multivariate Gaussian classifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobeck, Gerald J.; Cobb, J. Tory

2003-09-01

The high-resolution sonar is one of the principal sensors used by the Navy to detect and classify sea mines in minehunting operations. For such sonar systems, substantial effort has been devoted to the development of automated detection and classification (D/C) algorithms. These have been spurred by several factors including (1) aids for operators to reduce work overload, (2) more optimal use of all available data, and (3) the introduction of unmanned minehunting systems. The environments where sea mines are typically laid (harbor areas, shipping lanes, and the littorals) give rise to many false alarms caused by natural, biologic, and man-made clutter. The objective of the automated D/C algorithms is to eliminate most of these false alarms while still maintaining a very high probability of mine detection and classification (PdPc). In recent years, the benefits of fusing the outputs of multiple D/C algorithms have been studied. We refer to this as Algorithm Fusion. The results have been remarkable, including reliable robustness to new environments. This paper describes a method for training several multivariate Gaussian classifiers such that their And-ing dramatically reduces false alarms while maintaining a high probability of classification. This training approach is referred to as the Focused- Training method. This work extends our 2001-2002 work where the Focused-Training method was used with three other types of classifiers: the Attractor-based K-Nearest Neighbor Neural Network (a type of radial-basis, probabilistic neural network), the Optimal Discrimination Filter Classifier (based linear discrimination theory), and the Quadratic Penalty Function Support Vector Machine (QPFSVM). Although our experience has been gained in the area of sea mine detection and classification, the principles described herein are general and can be applied to a wide range of pattern recognition and automatic target recognition (ATR) problems.

Detectability of high power aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmar, Klaus Uwe; Kruse, Juergen; Loebert, Gerhard

1992-05-01

In addition to the measures aiming at improving the probability of survival for an aircraft, including aircraft performance, flight profile selection, efficient electronic warfare equipment, and self protection weapons, it is shown that an efficient measure consists of reducing aircraft signature (radar, infrared, acoustic, visual) in connection with the use of signature avionics. The American 'stealth' aircrafts are described as examples.

Landscape characteristics influence pond occupancy by frogs after accounting for detectability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazerolle, M.J.; Desrochers, A.; Rochefort, L.

2005-01-01

Many investigators have hypothesized that landscape attributes such as the amount and proximity of habitat are important for amphibian spatial patterns. This has produced a number of studies focusing on the effects of landscape characteristics on amphibian patterns of occurrence in patches or ponds, most of which conclude that the landscape is important. We identified two concerns associated with these studies: one deals with their applicability to other landscape types, as most have been conducted in agricultural landscapes; the other highlights the need to account for the probability of detection. We tested the hypothesis that landscape characteristics influence spatial patterns of amphibian occurrence at ponds after accounting for the probability of detection in little-studied peatland landscapes undergoing peat mining. We also illustrated the costs of not accounting for the probability of detection by comparing our results to conventional logistic regression analyses. Results indicate that frog occurrence increased with the percent cover of ponds within 100, 250, and 1000 m, as well as the amount of forest cover within 1000 m. However, forest cover at 250 m had a negative influence on frog presence at ponds. Not accounting for the probability of detection resulted in underestimating the influence of most variables on frog occurrence, whereas a few were overestimated. Regardless, we show that conventional logistic regression can lead to different conclusions than analyses accounting for detectability. Our study is consistent with the hypothesis that landscape characteristics are important in determining the spatial patterns of frog occurrence at ponds. We strongly recommend estimating the probability of detection in field surveys, as this will increase the quality and conservation potential of models derived from such data. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

High-energy Neutrino Emission from Short Gamma-Ray Bursts: Prospects for Coincident Detection with Gravitational Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimura, Shigeo S.; Murase, Kohta; Mészáros, Peter

We investigate current and future prospects for coincident detection of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves (GWs). Short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) are believed to originate from mergers of compact star binaries involving neutron stars. We estimate high-energy neutrino fluences from prompt emission, extended emission (EE), X-ray flares, and plateau emission, and we show that neutrino signals associated with the EE are the most promising. Assuming that the cosmic-ray loading factor is ∼10 and the Lorentz factor distribution is lognormal, we calculate the probability of neutrino detection from EE by current and future neutrino detectors, and we find that the quasi-simultaneous detectionmore » of high-energy neutrinos, gamma-rays, and GWs is possible with future instruments or even with current instruments for nearby SGRBs having EE. We also discuss stacking analyses that will also be useful with future experiments such as IceCube-Gen2.« less

Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Kevin Martin

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful precipitation clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. A similar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 and SSM/I-SSMIS rain rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high-power cluster probabilities at this time. Large impacts to mid-latitude storm tracks are projected over the West Coast and eastern North America, with no less than 8 of the 9 models examined showing large increases by end-of-century in the probability density of the most powerful storms, ranging up to a factor of 6.5 in the highest range bin for which historical statistics are computed. However, within these regional domains, there is considerable variation among models in pinpointing exactly where the largest increases will occur.

Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

Classification tree for the assessment of sedentary lifestyle among hypertensive.

PubMed

Castelo Guedes Martins, Larissa; Venícios de Oliveira Lopes, Marcos; Gomes Guedes, Nirla; Paixão de Menezes, Angélica; de Oliveira Farias, Odaleia; Alves Dos Santos, Naftale

2016-04-01

To develop a classification tree of clinical indicators for the correct prediction of the nursing diagnosis "Sedentary lifestyle" (SL) in people with high blood pressure (HTN). A cross-sectional study conducted in an outpatient care center specializing in high blood pressure and Mellitus diabetes located in northeastern Brazil. The sample consisted of 285 people between 19 and 59 years old diagnosed with high blood pressure and was applied an interview and physical examination, obtaining socio-demographic information, related factors and signs and symptoms that made the defining characteristics for the diagnosis under study. The tree was generated using the CHAID algorithm (Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection). The construction of the decision tree allowed establishing the interactions between clinical indicators that facilitate a probabilistic analysis of multiple situations allowing quantify the probability of an individual presenting a sedentary lifestyle. The tree included the clinical indicator Choose daily routine without exercise as the first node. People with this indicator showed a probability of 0.88 of presenting the SL. The second node was composed of the indicator Does not perform physical activity during leisure, with 0.99 probability of presenting the SL with these two indicators. The predictive capacity of the tree was established at 69.5%. Decision trees help nurses who care HTN people in decision-making in assessing the characteristics that increase the probability of SL nursing diagnosis, optimizing the time for diagnostic inference.

Sources of variation in detection of wading birds from aerial surveys in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Peterson, J.T.; Bass, O.L.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Howell, J.E.; Moore, C.T.; Runge, J.P.

2008-01-01

We conducted dual-observer trials to estimate detection probabilities (probability that a group that is present and available is detected) for fixed-wing aerial surveys of wading birds in the Everglades system, Florida. Detection probability ranged from <0.2 to similar to 0.75 and varied according to species, group size, observer, and the observer's position in the aircraft (front or rear seat). Aerial-survey simulations indicated that incomplete detection can have a substantial effect oil assessment of population trends, particularly river relatively short intervals (<= 3 years) and small annual changes in population size (<= 3%). We conclude that detection bias is an important consideration for interpreting observations from aerial surveys of wading birds, potentially limiting the use of these data for comparative purposes and trend analyses. We recommend that workers conducting aerial surveys for wading birds endeavor to reduce observer and other controllable sources of detection bias and account for uncontrollable sources through incorporation of dual-observer or other calibratior methods as part of survey design (e.g., using double sampling).

Multi-target Detection, Tracking, and Data Association on Road Networks Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Brett E.

A cooperative detection and tracking algorithm for multiple targets constrained to a road network is presented for fixed-wing Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) with a finite field of view. Road networks of interest are formed into graphs with nodes that indicate the target likelihood ratio (before detection) and position probability (after detection). A Bayesian likelihood ratio tracker recursively assimilates target observations until the cumulative observations at a particular location pass a detection criterion. At this point, a target is considered detected and a position probability is generated for the target on the graph. Data association is subsequently used to route future measurements to update the likelihood ratio tracker (for undetected target) or to update a position probability (a previously detected target). Three strategies for motion planning of UAVs are proposed to balance searching for new targets with tracking known targets for a variety of scenarios. Performance was tested in Monte Carlo simulations for a variety of mission parameters, including tracking on road networks with varying complexity and using UAVs at various altitudes.

Spatial event cluster detection using an approximate normal distribution.

PubMed

Torabi, Mahmoud; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

2008-12-12

In geographic surveillance of disease, areas with large numbers of disease cases are to be identified so that investigations of the causes of high disease rates can be pursued. Areas with high rates are called disease clusters and statistical cluster detection tests are used to identify geographic areas with higher disease rates than expected by chance alone. Typically cluster detection tests are applied to incident or prevalent cases of disease, but surveillance of disease-related events, where an individual may have multiple events, may also be of interest. Previously, a compound Poisson approach that detects clusters of events by testing individual areas that may be combined with their neighbours has been proposed. However, the relevant probabilities from the compound Poisson distribution are obtained from a recursion relation that can be cumbersome if the number of events are large or analyses by strata are performed. We propose a simpler approach that uses an approximate normal distribution. This method is very easy to implement and is applicable to situations where the population sizes are large and the population distribution by important strata may differ by area. We demonstrate the approach on pediatric self-inflicted injury presentations to emergency departments and compare the results for probabilities based on the recursion and the normal approach. We also implement a Monte Carlo simulation to study the performance of the proposed approach. In a self-inflicted injury data example, the normal approach identifies twelve out of thirteen of the same clusters as the compound Poisson approach, noting that the compound Poisson method detects twelve significant clusters in total. Through simulation studies, the normal approach well approximates the compound Poisson approach for a variety of different population sizes and case and event thresholds. A drawback of the compound Poisson approach is that the relevant probabilities must be determined through a recursion relation and such calculations can be computationally intensive if the cluster size is relatively large or if analyses are conducted with strata variables. On the other hand, the normal approach is very flexible, easily implemented, and hence, more appealing for users. Moreover, the concepts may be more easily conveyed to non-statisticians interested in understanding the methodology associated with cluster detection test results.

Monte Carlo tests of the ELIPGRID-PC algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davidson, J.R.

1995-04-01

The standard tool for calculating the probability of detecting pockets of contamination called hot spots has been the ELIPGRID computer code of Singer and Wickman. The ELIPGRID-PC program has recently made this algorithm available for an IBM{reg_sign} PC. However, no known independent validation of the ELIPGRID algorithm exists. This document describes a Monte Carlo simulation-based validation of a modified version of the ELIPGRID-PC code. The modified ELIPGRID-PC code is shown to match Monte Carlo-calculated hot-spot detection probabilities to within {plus_minus}0.5% for 319 out of 320 test cases. The one exception, a very thin elliptical hot spot located within a rectangularmore » sampling grid, differed from the Monte Carlo-calculated probability by about 1%. These results provide confidence in the ability of the modified ELIPGRID-PC code to accurately predict hot-spot detection probabilities within an acceptable range of error.« less

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Kendall, W L; Bjorkland, R

2001-12-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Bjorkland, R.

2001-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.

Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Lachman, G.B.; Droege, S.; Royle, J. Andrew; Langtimm, C.A.

2002-01-01

Nondetection of a species at a site does not imply that the species is absent unless the probability of detection is 1. We propose a model and likelihood-based method for estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are 0.3). We estimated site occupancy rates for two anuran species at 32 wetland sites in Maryland, USA, from data collected during 2000 as part of an amphibian monitoring program, Frogwatch USA. Site occupancy rates were estimated as 0.49 for American toads (Bufo americanus), a 44% increase over the proportion of sites at which they were actually observed, and as 0.85 for spring peepers (Pseudacris crucifer), slightly above the observed proportion of 0.83.

Neutrino oscillation processes in a quantum-field-theoretical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egorov, Vadim O.; Volobuev, Igor P.

2018-05-01

It is shown that neutrino oscillation processes can be consistently described in the framework of quantum field theory using only the plane wave states of the particles. Namely, the oscillating electron survival probabilities in experiments with neutrino detection by charged-current and neutral-current interactions are calculated in the quantum field-theoretical approach to neutrino oscillations based on a modification of the Feynman propagator in the momentum representation. The approach is most similar to the standard Feynman diagram technique. It is found that the oscillating distance-dependent probabilities of detecting an electron in experiments with neutrino detection by charged-current and neutral-current interactions exactly coincide with the corresponding probabilities calculated in the standard approach.

Assessing Performance Tradeoffs in Undersea Distributed Sensor Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

time. We refer to this process as track - before - detect (see [5] for a description), since the final determination of a target presence is not made until...expressions for probability of successful search and probability of false search for modeling the track - before - detect process. We then describe a numerical...random manner (randomly sampled from a uniform distribution). II. SENSOR NETWORK PERFORMANCE MODELS We model the process of track - before - detect by

Probability of undetected error after decoding for a concatenated coding scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if the outer code detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error is derived and bounded. A particular example, proposed for NASA telecommand system is analyzed.

Limited value of whole blood Xpert(®) MTB/RIF for diagnosing tuberculosis in children.

PubMed

Pohl, Christian; Rutaihwa, Liliana K; Haraka, Frederick; Nsubuga, Martin; Aloi, Francesco; Ntinginya, Nyanda E; Mapamba, Daniel; Heinrich, Norbert; Hoelscher, Michael; Marais, Ben J; Jugheli, Levan; Reither, Klaus

2016-10-01

We evaluated the ability of the Xpert(®) MTB/RIF assay to detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis in whole blood of children with tuberculosis in tuberculosis endemic settings with high rates of HIV infection. From June 2011 to September 2012 we prospectively enrolled children with symptoms or signs suggestive of tuberculosis at three research centres in Tanzania and Uganda. After clinical assessment, respiratory specimens were collected for microscopy and culture, as well as whole blood for Xpert(®) MTB/RIF. Children were classified according to standardised case definitions. A total of 232 children were evaluated; 14 (6.0%) had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. The Xpert(®) MTB/RIF assay detected M. tuberculosis in 5/232 (2.2%) blood samples with 1 (0.4%) error reading and presumably 1 (0.4%) false-positive result. The sensitivity of the assay in children with culture-confirmed (1/14) versus no tuberculosis (1/117) was 7.1% (95% CI, 1.3-31.5). Three of the five Xpert(®) MTB/RIF positive patients had negative cultures, but were classified as probable tuberculosis cases. Assay sensitivity against a composite reference standard (culture-confirmed, highly probable or probable tuberculosis) was 5.4% (95% CI, 2.1-13.1). Whole blood Xpert(®) MTB/RIF demonstrated very poor sensitivity, although it may enhance the diagnostic yield in select cases, with culture-negative tuberculosis. Copyright © 2016 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pattern recognition for passive polarimetric data using nonparametric classifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thilak, Vimal; Saini, Jatinder; Voelz, David G.; Creusere, Charles D.

2005-08-01

Passive polarization based imaging is a useful tool in computer vision and pattern recognition. A passive polarization imaging system forms a polarimetric image from the reflection of ambient light that contains useful information for computer vision tasks such as object detection (classification) and recognition. Applications of polarization based pattern recognition include material classification and automatic shape recognition. In this paper, we present two target detection algorithms for images captured by a passive polarimetric imaging system. The proposed detection algorithms are based on Bayesian decision theory. In these approaches, an object can belong to one of any given number classes and classification involves making decisions that minimize the average probability of making incorrect decisions. This minimum is achieved by assigning an object to the class that maximizes the a posteriori probability. Computing a posteriori probabilities requires estimates of class conditional probability density functions (likelihoods) and prior probabilities. A Probabilistic neural network (PNN), which is a nonparametric method that can compute Bayes optimal boundaries, and a -nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier, is used for density estimation and classification. The proposed algorithms are applied to polarimetric image data gathered in the laboratory with a liquid crystal-based system. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the above algorithms for target detection from polarimetric data.

Detection of Sea Ice and Open Water from RADARSAT-2 Images for Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, A.; Buehner, M.

2016-12-01

Automated detection of sea ice and open water from SAR data is very important for further assimilation into coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere numerical models, such as the Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System being implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada. Conventional classification approaches based on various learning techniques are found to be limited by the fact that they typically do not indicate the level of confidence for ice and water retrievals. Meanwhile, only ice/water retrievals with a very high level of confidence are allowed to be assimilated into the sea ice model to avoid propagating and magnifying errors into the numerical prediction system. In this study we developed a new technique for ice and water detection from dual-polarization RADARSAT-2 HH-HV images which provides the probability of ice/water at a given location. We collected many hundreds of thousands of SAR signatures over various sea ice types (i.e. new, grey, first-year, and multi-year ice) and open water from all available RADARSAT-2 images and the corresponding Canadian Ice Service Image Analysis products over the period from November 2010 to May 2016. Our analysis of the dataset revealed that ice/water separation can be effectively performed in the space of SAR-based variables independent of the incidence angle and noise floor (such as texture measures) and auxiliary Global Environmental Multiscale Model parameters (such as surface wind speed). Choice of the parameters will be specifically discussed in the presentation. An ice probability empirical model as a function of the selected predictors was built in a form of logistic regression, based on the training dataset from 2012 to 2016. The developed ice probability model showed very good performance on the independent testing subset (year 2011). With the ice/water probability threshold of 0.95 reflecting a very high level of confidence, 79% of the testing ice and water samples were classified with the accuracy of 99%. These results are particularly important in light of the upcoming RADARSAT Constellation mission which will drastically increase the amount of SAR data over the Arctic region.

DISCUSSION OF "DETECTION OF CRYPTOSPORIDIUM PARVUM IN SECONDARY EFFLUENTS USING A MOST PROBABLE NUMBER-POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION ASSAY"

EPA Science Inventory

The emphasis of this paper is to show that most probable number-polymerase chain reaction (MPNPCR) assay can be used to detect Cryptosporidium parvum in WWTP effluents as an alternative to immunfluorescent assay (IFA). I am concerned, however, that the paper suggests that all WW...

Fabrication of few-layer graphene film based field effect transistor and its application for trace-detection of herbicide atrazine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanh Cao, Thi; Chuc Nguyen, Van; Binh Nguyen, Hai; Thang Bui, Hung; Thu Vu, Thi; Phan, Ngoc Hong; Thang Phan, Bach; Hoang, Le; Bayle, Maxime; Paillet, Matthieu; Sauvajol, Jean Louis; Phan, Ngoc Minh; Tran, Dai Lam

2016-09-01

We describe the fabrication of highly sensitive graphene-based field effect transistor (FET) enzymatic biosensor for trace-detection of atrazine. The few-layers graphene films were prepared on polycrystalline copper foils by atmospheric pressure chemical vapor deposition method using an argon/hydrogen/methane mixture. The characteristics of graphene films were investigated by scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The results indicated low uniformity of graphene layers, which is probably induced by heterogeneous distribution of graphene nucleation sites on the Cu surface. The pesticide detection is accomplished through the measurement of the drain-source current variations of the FET sensor upon the urea enzymatic hydrolysis reaction. The obtained biosensor is able to detect atrazine with a sensitivity of 56 μA/logCATZ in range between 2 × 10-4 and 20 ppb and has a limit of detection as low as 0.05 ppt. The elaboration of such highly sensitive biosensors will provide better biosensing performances for the detection of biochemical targets.

[The use of galactomannan detection in diagnosing invasive aspergillosis in hemato-oncological patients].

PubMed

Rácil, Z; Kocmanová, I; Wagnerová, B; Winterová, J; Lengerová, M; Moulis, M; Mayer, J

2008-01-01

PREMISES AND OBJECTIVES: Timely diagnosis is of critical importance for the prognosis of invasive aspergilosis (IA) patients. Over recent years, IA detection of galactomannan using the ELISA method has assumed growing importance. The objective of the study was to analyse the usability of the method in current clinical practice of a hemato-oncological ward. From May 2003 to October 2006, blood samples were taken from patients at IA risk to detect galactomannan (GM) in serum using the ELISA method. The patients who underwent the tests were classified by the probability of IA presence on the basis of the results of conventional diagnostic methods and section findings. A total of 11,360 serum samples from 911 adult patients were tested for GM presence. IA (probable/proven) was diagnosed in 42 (4.6%) of them. The rates of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of galactomannan detection for IA diagnosis in our ward were, respectively, 95.2%, 90.0%, 31.5% and 99.7%. The principal causes of the limited positive predictive value of the test were the high percentage of false-positive test results (mainly caused by concomitant administration of some penicillin antibiotics or Plasma-Lyte infusion solution), as well as the fact that a large percentage of patients we examined fell within the group of patients with hematological malignity with a very low prevalence of IA. GM detection in serum is associated with high sensitivity and excellent negative predictive value in IA diagnosis in hemato-oncological patients. Knowledge and elimination of possible causes of false-positive results as well as focusing the screening on patients at greatest risk of infection are necessary for an even better exploitation of the test.

Noninvasive Characterization of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules Detected on Chest High-Resolution Computed Tomography

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation...the LTRC database comprised of nodules with a very high pretest probability of malignancy make these results encouraging as we are in the process of...working with the investigators to design the study, establish and support access to the clinical data and images of NLST and DECAMP, develop database

Do breeding phase and detection distance influence the effective area surveyed for northern goshawks?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberson, A.M.; Andersen, D.E.; Kennedy, P.L.

2005-01-01

Broadcast surveys using conspecific calls are currently the most effective method for detecting northern goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) during the breeding season. These surveys typically use alarm calls during the nestling phase and juvenile food-begging calls during the fledgling-dependency phase. Because goshawks are most vocal during the courtship phase, we hypothesized that this phase would be an effective time to detect goshawks. Our objective was to improve current survey methodology by evaluating the probability of detecting goshawks at active nests in northern Minnesota in 3 breeding phases and at 4 broadcast distances and to determine the effective area surveyed per broadcast station. Unlike previous studies, we broadcast calls at only 1 distance per trial. This approach better quantifies (1) the relationship between distance and probability of detection, and (2) the effective area surveyed (EAS) per broadcast station. We conducted 99 broadcast trials at 14 active breeding areas. When pooled over all distances, detection rates were highest during the courtship (70%) and fledgling-dependency phases (68%). Detection rates were lowest during the nestling phase (28%), when there appeared to be higher variation in likelihood of detecting individuals. EAS per broadcast station was 39.8 ha during courtship and 24.8 ha during fledgling-dependency. Consequently, in northern Minnesota, broadcast stations may be spaced 712m and 562 m apart when conducting systematic surveys during courtship and fledgling-dependency, respectively. We could not calculate EAS for the nestling phase because probability of detection was not a simple function of distance from nest. Calculation of EAS could be applied to other areas where the probability of detection is a known function of distance.

Repeat Prostate Biopsy Practice Patterns in a Statewide Quality Improvement Collaborative.

PubMed

Burks, Frank N; Hu, Jonathan C; Telang, Dinesh; Liu, Alice; Hawken, Scott; Montgomery, Zack; Linsell, Susan; Montie, James E; Miller, David C; Ghani, Khurshid R

2017-08-01

We examined rebiopsies in MUSIC (Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative) to understand adherence to guidelines recommending repeat prostate biopsy in patients with multifocal high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia or atypical small acinar proliferation. We analyzed data on men undergoing repeat biopsy, practice patterns and cancer detection rates. Multivariate regression modeling was used to calculate the proportion of patients undergoing rebiopsy. We used claims data to validate the treatment classification in MUSIC. To understand reasons for not performing rebiopsy we reviewed records of a sample of patients with atypical small acinar proliferation. We identified 5,375 men with a negative biopsy, of whom 411 (7.6%) underwent repeat biopsy. In 718 men with high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia, 350 with atypical small acinar proliferation and 587 with high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia and atypical small acinar proliferation or atypical small acinar proliferation alone at initial biopsy the rebiopsy rate was 20.7%, 42.5% and 55.6%, respectively. The adjusted proportion of patients with rebiopsy in each practice ranged from 0% to 17.2% (p <0.001). The overall cancer detection rate at rebiopsy was 39.3%. It was highest after atypical small acinar proliferation (adjusted probability 0.39, 95% CI 0.30-0.48), and after high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia and atypical small acinar proliferation (adjusted probability 0.50, 95% CI 0.35-0.65). The greatest Gleason 7 or greatest detection rate of 41.1% was found in patients with high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia and atypical small acinar proliferation. Chart review revealed that 45.5% of patients with atypical small acinar proliferation underwent prostate specific antigen testing instead of rebiopsy while 36% failed to undergo rebiopsy despite a recommendation. Rebiopsy rates vary in Michigan practices with relatively low use in men with high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia and atypical small acinar proliferation or atypical small acinar proliferation alone. Quality improvement strategies should target patients with atypical small acinar proliferation and high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia as they have the highest likelihood of cancer detection. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

PubMed

Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

2017-12-01

To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

QTL fine mapping with Bayes C(π): a simulation study.

PubMed

van den Berg, Irene; Fritz, Sébastien; Boichard, Didier

2013-06-19

Accurate QTL mapping is a prerequisite in the search for causative mutations. Bayesian genomic selection models that analyse many markers simultaneously should provide more accurate QTL detection results than single-marker models. Our objectives were to (a) evaluate by simulation the influence of heritability, number of QTL and number of records on the accuracy of QTL mapping with Bayes Cπ and Bayes C; (b) estimate the QTL status (homozygous vs. heterozygous) of the individuals analysed. This study focussed on the ten largest detected QTL, assuming they are candidates for further characterization. Our simulations were based on a true dairy cattle population genotyped for 38,277 phased markers. Some of these markers were considered biallelic QTL and used to generate corresponding phenotypes. Different numbers of records (4387 and 1500), heritability values (0.1, 0.4 and 0.7) and numbers of QTL (10, 100 and 1000) were studied. QTL detection was based on the posterior inclusion probability for individual markers, or on the sum of the posterior inclusion probabilities for consecutive markers, estimated using Bayes C or Bayes Cπ. The QTL status of the individuals was derived from the contrast between the sums of the SNP allelic effects of their chromosomal segments. The proportion of markers with null effect (π) frequently did not reach convergence, leading to poor results for Bayes Cπ in QTL detection. Fixing π led to better results. Detection of the largest QTL was most accurate for medium to high heritability, for low to moderate numbers of QTL, and with a large number of records. The QTL status was accurately inferred when the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects was bimodal. QTL detection is feasible with Bayes C. For QTL detection, it is recommended to use a large dataset and to focus on highly heritable traits and on the largest QTL. QTL statuses were inferred based on the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects.

Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2011-01-01

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

The efficacy of different cleaning and disinfection procedures to reduce Salmonella and Enterobacteriaceae in the lairage environment of a pig abattoir.

PubMed

Walia, Kavita; Argüello, Hector; Lynch, Helen; Grant, Jim; Leonard, Finola C; Lawlor, Peadar G; Gardiner, Gillian E; Duffy, Geraldine

2017-04-04

This study investigated several cleaning and disinfection protocols for their ability to eliminate Salmonella and to reduce levels of Enterobacteriaceae, within the lairage pens of a commercial pig abattoir. Eight protocols were evaluated in each of 12 lairage pens at the end of the slaughtering day on 3 occasions (36 pens/protocol): (P1) high-pressure cold water wash (herein referred to as high-pressure wash); (P2) high-pressure wash followed by a quaternary ammonium compound (QAC)-based disinfectant without rinsing; (P3) high-pressure wash followed by a chlorocresol-based disinfectant without rinsing; (P4) high-pressure wash followed by a sodium hydroxide/sodium hypochlorite detergent with rinsing; (P5) P4 followed by P2; (P6) P4 followed by P3; (P7) P5 with drying for 24-48h; and (P8) P6 with drying for 24-48h. Two floor swabs and one wall swab were taken from each lairage pen before and after each protocol was applied, and examined for the presence of Salmonella and enumeration of Enterobacteriaceae. High-pressure washing alone (P1) did not reduce the prevalence of Salmonella in the lairage pens. When high-pressure washing, the probability of detecting Salmonella following application of the chlorocresol-based disinfectant (P3) was lower than with the QAC-based disinfectant, P2 (14.2% versus 34.0%, respectively; p<0.05). The probability of detecting Salmonella after the combined use of detergent and the chlorocresol-based disinfectant (P6) was also lower than application of detergent followed by the QAC-based disinfectant, P5 (2.2% versus 17.1%, respectively; p<0.05). Drying of pens (P7 and P8) greatly reduced the probability of detecting Salmonella. Only 3.8% of swabs were Salmonella-positive 48h after cleaning with detergent and the QAC-based disinfectant (P7); while an eradication of Salmonella was achieved 24h after cleaning with detergent and the chlorocresol-based disinfectant, P8. A reduction in Enterobacteriaceae counts to below the limit of detection (LOD; 10CFU/cm 2 ) was achieved following cleaning with detergent and disinfection with the chlorocresol-based disinfectant, regardless of drying (p<0.05), whereas, applying detergent and the QAC-based disinfectant (P7) did not reduce Enterobacteriaceae counts to below the LOD. Therefore ensuring that lairage pens are allowed to dry after intensive cleaning with detergent and a chlorocresol-based disinfectant is recommended as the most effective hygiene routine to eliminate Salmonella and reduce Enterobacteriaceae counts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Logistic regression model for detecting radon prone areas in Ireland.

PubMed

Elío, J; Crowley, Q; Scanlon, R; Hodgson, J; Long, S

2017-12-01

A new high spatial resolution radon risk map of Ireland has been developed, based on a combination of indoor radon measurements (n=31,910) and relevant geological information (i.e. Bedrock Geology, Quaternary Geology, soil permeability and aquifer type). Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of having an indoor radon concentration above the national reference level of 200Bqm -3 in Ireland. The four geological datasets evaluated were found to be statistically significant, and, based on combinations of these four variables, the predicted probabilities ranged from 0.57% to 75.5%. Results show that the Republic of Ireland may be divided in three main radon risk categories: High (HR), Medium (MR) and Low (LR). The probability of having an indoor radon concentration above 200Bqm -3 in each area was found to be 19%, 8% and 3%; respectively. In the Republic of Ireland, the population affected by radon concentrations above 200Bqm -3 is estimated at ca. 460k (about 10% of the total population). Of these, 57% (265k), 35% (160k) and 8% (35k) are in High, Medium and Low Risk Areas, respectively. Our results provide a high spatial resolution utility which permit customised radon-awareness information to be targeted at specific geographic areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systemic and Mucosal Differences in HIV Burden, Immune and Therapeutic Responses

PubMed Central

Wahl, Sharon M.; Redford, Maryann; Christensen, Shawna; Mack, Wendy; Cohn, Jon; Janoff, Edward N.; Mestecky, Jiri; Jenson, Hal B.; Navazesh, Mahvash; Cohen, Mardge; Reichelderfer, Patricia; Kovacs, Andrea

2011-01-01

Background Mucosal tissues represent major targets for HIV transmission, but differ in susceptibility and reservoir function by unknown mechanisms. Methods In a cross-sectional study, HIV RNA and infectious virus were compared between oral and genital compartments and blood in HIV-infected women, in association with clinical parameters, co-pathogens and putative innate and adaptive HIV inhibitors. Results HIV RNA was detectable in 24.5% of women from all 3 compartments, whereas 45% had RNA in only one or two sites. By comparison, infectious HIV, present in blood of the majority, was rare in mucosal sites. Innate mediators, SLPI and TSP, were highest in mucosae. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was associated with an 80% decreased probability of shedding. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed that mucosal HIV RNA was associated with higher plasma RNA, infectious virus, and total mucosal IgA, but not IgG. There was a 37-fold increased probability of detecting RNA in both genital and oral specimens (P=0.008;P=0.02, respectively) among women in highest vs lowest IgA tertiles. Conclusions Mucosal sites exhibit distinct characteristics of infectious HIV, viral shedding and responses to therapy, dependent upon both systemic and local factors. Of the putative innate and adaptive mucosal defense factors examined, only IgA was associated with HIV RNA shedding. However, rather than being protective, there was a striking increase in probability of detectable HIV RNA shedding in women with highest total IgA. PMID:21239996

Probability mapping of scarred myocardium using texture and intensity features in CMR images

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The myocardium exhibits heterogeneous nature due to scarring after Myocardial Infarction (MI). In Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) imaging, Late Gadolinium (LG) contrast agent enhances the intensity of scarred area in the myocardium. Methods In this paper, we propose a probability mapping technique using Texture and Intensity features to describe heterogeneous nature of the scarred myocardium in Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) images after Myocardial Infarction (MI). Scarred tissue and non-scarred tissue are represented with high and low probabilities, respectively. Intermediate values possibly indicate areas where the scarred and healthy tissues are interwoven. The probability map of scarred myocardium is calculated by using a probability function based on Bayes rule. Any set of features can be used in the probability function. Results In the present study, we demonstrate the use of two different types of features. One is based on the mean intensity of pixel and the other on underlying texture information of the scarred and non-scarred myocardium. Examples of probability maps computed using the mean intensity of pixel and the underlying texture information are presented. We hypothesize that the probability mapping of myocardium offers alternate visualization, possibly showing the details with physiological significance difficult to detect visually in the original CMR image. Conclusion The probability mapping obtained from the two features provides a way to define different cardiac segments which offer a way to identify areas in the myocardium of diagnostic importance (like core and border areas in scarred myocardium). PMID:24053280

Snake River fall Chinook salmon life history investigations, annual report 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Connor, William P.; Bellgraph, Brian J.; Buchanan, Rebecca A.

2010-01-01

In 2009, we used radio and acoustic telemetry to evaluate the migratory behavior, survival, mortality, and delay of subyearling fall Chinook salmon in the Clearwater River and Lower Granite Reservoir. We released a total of 1,000 tagged hatchery subyearlings at Cherry Lane on the Clearwater River in mid August and we monitored them as they passed downstream through various river and reservoir reaches. Survival through the free-flowing river was high (>0.85) for both radio- and acoustic-tagged fish, but dropped substantially as fish delayed in the Transition Zone and Confluence areas. Estimates of the joint probability of migration and survival through the Transition Zone and Confluence reaches combined were similar for both radio- and acoustic-tagged fish, and ranged from about 0.30 to 0.35. Estimates of the joint probability of delaying and surviving in the combined Transition Zone and Confluence peaked at the beginning of the study, ranging from 0.323 ( SE =NA; radio-telemetry data) to 0.466 ( SE =0.024; acoustic-telemetry data), and then steadily declined throughout the remainder of the study. By the end of October, no live tagged juvenile salmon were detected in either the Transition Zone or the Confluence. As estimates of the probability of delay decreased throughout the study, estimates of the probability of mortality increased, as evidenced by the survival estimate of 0.650 ( SE =0.025) at the end of October (acoustic-telemetry data). Few fish were detected at Lower Granite Dam during our study and even fewer fish passed the dam before PIT-tag monitoring ended at the end of October. Five acoustic-tagged fish passed Lower Granite Dam in October and 12 passed the dam in November based on detections in the dam tailrace; however, too few detections were available to calculate the joint probabilities of migrating and surviving or delaying and surviving. Estimates of the joint probability of migrating and surviving through the reservoir was less than 0.2 based on acoustic-tagged fish. Migration rates of tagged fish were highest in the free-flowing river (median range = 36 to 43 km/d) but were generally less than 6 km/d in the reservoir reaches. In particular, median migration rates of radio-tagged fish through the Transition Zone and Confluence were 3.4 and 5.2 km/d, respectively. Median migration rate for acoustic-tagged fish though the Transition Zone and Confluence combined was 1 km/d.

Lane detection based on color probability model and fuzzy clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Jo, Kang-Hyun

2018-04-01

In the vehicle driver assistance systems, the accuracy and speed of lane line detection are the most important. This paper is based on color probability model and Fuzzy Local Information C-Means (FLICM) clustering algorithm. The Hough transform and the constraints of structural road are used to detect the lane line accurately. The global map of the lane line is drawn by the lane curve fitting equation. The experimental results show that the algorithm has good robustness.

Effect of passive acoustic sampling methodology on detecting bats after declines from white nose syndrome

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coleman, Laci S.; Ford, W. Mark; Dobony, Christopher A.; Britzke, Eric R.

2014-01-01

Concomitant with the emergence and spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and precipitous decline of many bat species in North America, natural resource managers need modified and/or new techniques for bat inventory and monitoring that provide robust occupancy estimates. We used Anabat acoustic detectors to determine the most efficient passive acoustic sampling design for optimizing detection probabilities of multiple bat species in a WNS-impacted environment in New York, USA. Our sampling protocol included: six acoustic stations deployed for the entire duration of monitoring as well as a 4 x 4 grid and five transects of 5-10 acoustic units that were deployed for 6-8 night sample durations surveyed during the summers of 2011-2012. We used Program PRESENCE to determine detection probability and site occupancy estimates. Overall, the grid produced the highest detection probabilities for most species because it contained the most detectors and intercepted the greatest spatial area. However, big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) and species not impacted by WNS were detected easily regardless of sampling array. Endangered Indiana (Myotis sodalis) and little brown (Myotis lucifugus) and tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) showed declines in detection probabilities over our study, potentially indicative of continued WNS-associated declines. Identification of species presence through efficient methodologies is vital for future conservation efforts as bat populations decline further due to WNS and other factors.   

Detection probability of forest pests in current inspection protocols - a case study of the bronze birch borer

Treesearch

Bjorn Okland; Robert A. Haack; Gunnar. Wilhelmsen

2012-01-01

Increasing inter-continental trade of wood chips for biofuel represents a significant risk of introducing invasive pest species that can cause biome-scale impacts on forest ecosystems. Some potentially invasive species have the capacity to cause high tree mortality on the Eurasian continent and could cause significant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functions....

Efficiency of MY09/11 consensus PCR in the detection of multiple HPV infections.

PubMed

Şahiner, Fatih; Kubar, Ayhan; Gümral, Ramazan; Ardıç, Medine; Yiğit, Nuri; Şener, Kenan; Dede, Murat; Yapar, Mehmet

2014-09-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing has become an important component of cervical cancer screening programs. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the efficiency of MY09/11 consensus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the detection of multiple HPV infections. For this purpose, MY09/11 PCR was compared to an original TaqMan-based type-specific real-time PCR assay, which can detect 20 different HPV types. Of the 654 samples, 34.1% (223/654) were HPV DNA positive according to at least one method. The relative sensitivities of MY09/11 PCR and type-specific PCR were 80.7% (180/223) and 97.8% (218/223), respectively. In all, 352 different HPV isolates (66 low-risk and 286 high-risk or probable high-risk types) were identified in 218 samples, but 5 samples, which were positive by consensus PCR only, could not be genotyped. The distribution of the 286 high-risk or probable high-risk HPVs were as follows: 24.5% HPV-16, 8.4% HPV-52, 7.7% HPV-51, 6.3% HPV-39, 6.3% HPV-82, 5.6% HPV-35, 5.6% HPV-58, 5.6% HPV-66, 5.2% HPV-18, 5.2% HPV-68, and 19.6% the other 8 types. A single HPV type was detected in 57.3% (125/218) of the genotyped samples, and multiple HPV types were found in the remaining 42.7% (93/218). The false-negative rates of MY09/11 PCR were found to be 17.4% in single infections, 23.3% in multiple infections, and 34.6% in multiple infections that contained 3 or more HPV types, with the condition that the low-risk types HPV-6 and HPV-11 be considered as a monotype. These data suggest that broad-range PCR assays may lead to significant data loss and that type-specific PCR assays can provide accurate and reliable results during cervical cancer screening. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting detection of burrowing owl nests during standardized surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Garcia, V.; Smith, M.D.; Hughes, K.

2008-01-01

Identifying causes of declines and evaluating effects of management practices on persistence of local populations of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) requires accurate estimates of abundance and population trends. Moreover, regulatory agencies in the United States and Canada typically require surveys to detect nest burrows prior to approving developments or other activities in areas that are potentially suitable for nesting burrowing owls. In general, guidelines on timing of surveys have been lacking and surveys have been conducted at different times of day and in different stages of the nesting cycle. We used logistic regression to evaluate 7 factors that could potentially affect probability of a surveyor detecting a burrowing owl nest. We conducted 1,444 detection trials at 323 burrowing owl nests within 3 study areas in Washington and Wyoming, USA, between February and August 2000-2002. Detection probability was highest during the nestling period and increased with ambient temperature. The other 5 factors that we examined (i.e., study area, time of day, timing within the breeding season, wind speed, % cloud cover) interacted with another factor to influence detection probability. Use of call-broadcast surveys increased detection probability, even during daylight hours when we detected >95% of owls visually. Optimal timing of surveys will vary due to differences in breeding phenology and differences in nesting behavior across populations. Nevertheless, we recommend ???3 surveys per year: one that coincides with the laying and incubation period, another that coincides with the early nestling period, and a third that coincides with the late nestling period. In northern latitudes, surveys can be conducted throughout the day.

RS-Forest: A Rapid Density Estimator for Streaming Anomaly Detection.

PubMed

Wu, Ke; Zhang, Kun; Fan, Wei; Edwards, Andrea; Yu, Philip S

Anomaly detection in streaming data is of high interest in numerous application domains. In this paper, we propose a novel one-class semi-supervised algorithm to detect anomalies in streaming data. Underlying the algorithm is a fast and accurate density estimator implemented by multiple fully randomized space trees (RS-Trees), named RS-Forest. The piecewise constant density estimate of each RS-tree is defined on the tree node into which an instance falls. Each incoming instance in a data stream is scored by the density estimates averaged over all trees in the forest. Two strategies, statistical attribute range estimation of high probability guarantee and dual node profiles for rapid model update, are seamlessly integrated into RS-Forest to systematically address the ever-evolving nature of data streams. We derive the theoretical upper bound for the proposed algorithm and analyze its asymptotic properties via bias-variance decomposition. Empirical comparisons to the state-of-the-art methods on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method features high detection rate, fast response, and insensitivity to most of the parameter settings. Algorithm implementations and datasets are available upon request.

RS-Forest: A Rapid Density Estimator for Streaming Anomaly Detection

PubMed Central

Wu, Ke; Zhang, Kun; Fan, Wei; Edwards, Andrea; Yu, Philip S.

2015-01-01

Anomaly detection in streaming data is of high interest in numerous application domains. In this paper, we propose a novel one-class semi-supervised algorithm to detect anomalies in streaming data. Underlying the algorithm is a fast and accurate density estimator implemented by multiple fully randomized space trees (RS-Trees), named RS-Forest. The piecewise constant density estimate of each RS-tree is defined on the tree node into which an instance falls. Each incoming instance in a data stream is scored by the density estimates averaged over all trees in the forest. Two strategies, statistical attribute range estimation of high probability guarantee and dual node profiles for rapid model update, are seamlessly integrated into RS-Forest to systematically address the ever-evolving nature of data streams. We derive the theoretical upper bound for the proposed algorithm and analyze its asymptotic properties via bias-variance decomposition. Empirical comparisons to the state-of-the-art methods on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method features high detection rate, fast response, and insensitivity to most of the parameter settings. Algorithm implementations and datasets are available upon request. PMID:25685112

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit. [inertial platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

Prospective Biomarker Screening for Diagnosis of Invasive Aspergillosis in High-Risk Pediatric Patients

PubMed Central

Hafner, Julia; Mengoli, Carlo; Wirth, Clemens; Heussel, Claus Peter; Löffler, Claudia; White, P. Lewis; Ullmann, Andrew J.; Michel, Denise; Wiegering, Verena; Wölfl, Matthias; Schlegel, Paul Gerhardt; Einsele, Hermann; Springer, Jan; Eyrich, Matthias

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Combined biomarker screening is increasingly used to diagnose invasive aspergillosis (IA) in high-risk patients. In adults, the combination of galactomannan (GM) and fungal DNA detection has proven to be beneficial in the diagnosis of IA. Data in purely pediatric cohorts are scarce. Here, we monitored 39 children shortly before and after allogeneic stem cell transplantation twice weekly by use of a commercial GM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and a PCR assay based on amplification of the pan-Aspergillus ITS1/5.8S ribosomal operon. In addition, clinical data were recorded and classification of IA was performed according to the European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) criteria. Among the 39 high-risk children, we identified 4 patients (10.3%) with probable and 2 (5.1%) with possible IA. All patients with probable IA were repeatedly positive for both tests (means of 9.5 and 6.8 positive GM and PCR samples, respectively), whereas both possible IA cases were detected by PCR. The sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, 67% and 89% for GM and 100% and 63% for PCR. Positive and negative predictive values were, respectively, 50% and 100% for GM and 27% and 100% for PCR. For the combined testing approach, both values were 100%. The number of positive samples seemed to be lower in patients undergoing antifungal therapy. Sporadically positive tests occurred in 12% (GM) and 42% (PCR) of unclassified patients. In summary, our data show that combined monitoring for GM and fungal DNA also results in a high diagnostic accuracy in pediatric patients. Future studies have to determine whether combined testing is suitable for early detection of subclinical disease and how antifungal prophylaxis impacts assay performance. PMID:27795339

Prospective Biomarker Screening for Diagnosis of Invasive Aspergillosis in High-Risk Pediatric Patients.

PubMed

Loeffler, Juergen; Hafner, Julia; Mengoli, Carlo; Wirth, Clemens; Heussel, Claus Peter; Löffler, Claudia; White, P Lewis; Ullmann, Andrew J; Michel, Denise; Wiegering, Verena; Wölfl, Matthias; Schlegel, Paul Gerhardt; Einsele, Hermann; Springer, Jan; Eyrich, Matthias

2017-01-01

Combined biomarker screening is increasingly used to diagnose invasive aspergillosis (IA) in high-risk patients. In adults, the combination of galactomannan (GM) and fungal DNA detection has proven to be beneficial in the diagnosis of IA. Data in purely pediatric cohorts are scarce. Here, we monitored 39 children shortly before and after allogeneic stem cell transplantation twice weekly by use of a commercial GM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and a PCR assay based on amplification of the pan-Aspergillus ITS1/5.8S ribosomal operon. In addition, clinical data were recorded and classification of IA was performed according to the European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) criteria. Among the 39 high-risk children, we identified 4 patients (10.3%) with probable and 2 (5.1%) with possible IA. All patients with probable IA were repeatedly positive for both tests (means of 9.5 and 6.8 positive GM and PCR samples, respectively), whereas both possible IA cases were detected by PCR. The sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, 67% and 89% for GM and 100% and 63% for PCR. Positive and negative predictive values were, respectively, 50% and 100% for GM and 27% and 100% for PCR. For the combined testing approach, both values were 100%. The number of positive samples seemed to be lower in patients undergoing antifungal therapy. Sporadically positive tests occurred in 12% (GM) and 42% (PCR) of unclassified patients. In summary, our data show that combined monitoring for GM and fungal DNA also results in a high diagnostic accuracy in pediatric patients. Future studies have to determine whether combined testing is suitable for early detection of subclinical disease and how antifungal prophylaxis impacts assay performance. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Microbiology.

A detailed description of the sequential probability ratio test for 2-IMU FDI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, T. M.

1976-01-01

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) for 2-IMU FDI (inertial measuring unit failure detection/isolation) is described. The SPRT is a statistical technique for detecting and isolating soft IMU failures originally developed for the strapdown inertial reference unit. The flowchart of a subroutine incorporating the 2-IMU SPRT is included.

Efficient cooperative compressive spectrum sensing by identifying multi-candidate and exploiting deterministic matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jia; Wang, Qiang; Yan, Wenjie; Shen, Yi

2015-12-01

Cooperative spectrum sensing exploits the spatial diversity to improve the detection of occupied channels in cognitive radio networks (CRNs). Cooperative compressive spectrum sensing (CCSS) utilizing the sparsity of channel occupancy further improves the efficiency by reducing the number of reports without degrading detection performance. In this paper, we firstly and mainly propose the referred multi-candidate orthogonal matrix matching pursuit (MOMMP) algorithms to efficiently and effectively detect occupied channels at fusion center (FC), where multi-candidate identification and orthogonal projection are utilized to respectively reduce the number of required iterations and improve the probability of exact identification. Secondly, two common but different approaches based on threshold and Gaussian distribution are introduced to realize the multi-candidate identification. Moreover, to improve the detection accuracy and energy efficiency, we propose the matrix construction based on shrinkage and gradient descent (MCSGD) algorithm to provide a deterministic filter coefficient matrix of low t-average coherence. Finally, several numerical simulations validate that our proposals provide satisfactory performance with higher probability of detection, lower probability of false alarm and less detection time.

A Protocol Layer Trust-Based Intrusion Detection Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Jian; Jiang, Shuai; Fapojuwo, Abraham O.

2017-01-01

This article proposes a protocol layer trust-based intrusion detection scheme for wireless sensor networks. Unlike existing work, the trust value of a sensor node is evaluated according to the deviations of key parameters at each protocol layer considering the attacks initiated at different protocol layers will inevitably have impacts on the parameters of the corresponding protocol layers. For simplicity, the paper mainly considers three aspects of trustworthiness, namely physical layer trust, media access control layer trust and network layer trust. The per-layer trust metrics are then combined to determine the overall trust metric of a sensor node. The performance of the proposed intrusion detection mechanism is then analyzed using the t-distribution to derive analytical results of false positive and false negative probabilities. Numerical analytical results, validated by simulation results, are presented in different attack scenarios. It is shown that the proposed protocol layer trust-based intrusion detection scheme outperforms a state-of-the-art scheme in terms of detection probability and false probability, demonstrating its usefulness for detecting cross-layer attacks. PMID:28555023

A Protocol Layer Trust-Based Intrusion Detection Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Jiang, Shuai; Fapojuwo, Abraham O

2017-05-27

This article proposes a protocol layer trust-based intrusion detection scheme for wireless sensor networks. Unlike existing work, the trust value of a sensor node is evaluated according to the deviations of key parameters at each protocol layer considering the attacks initiated at different protocol layers will inevitably have impacts on the parameters of the corresponding protocol layers. For simplicity, the paper mainly considers three aspects of trustworthiness, namely physical layer trust, media access control layer trust and network layer trust. The per-layer trust metrics are then combined to determine the overall trust metric of a sensor node. The performance of the proposed intrusion detection mechanism is then analyzed using the t-distribution to derive analytical results of false positive and false negative probabilities. Numerical analytical results, validated by simulation results, are presented in different attack scenarios. It is shown that the proposed protocol layer trust-based intrusion detection scheme outperforms a state-of-the-art scheme in terms of detection probability and false probability, demonstrating its usefulness for detecting cross-layer attacks.

Preliminary performance assessment of biotoxin detection for UWS applications using a MicroChemLab device.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

VanderNoot, Victoria A.; Haroldsen, Brent L.; Renzi, Ronald F.

2010-03-01

In a multiyear research agreement with Tenix Investments Pty. Ltd., Sandia has been developing field deployable technologies for detection of biotoxins in water supply systems. The unattended water sensor or UWS employs microfluidic chip based gel electrophoresis for monitoring biological analytes in a small integrated sensor platform. This instrument collects, prepares, and analyzes water samples in an automated manner. Sample analysis is done using the {mu}ChemLab{trademark} analysis module. This report uses analysis results of two datasets collected using the UWS to estimate performance of the device. The first dataset is made up of samples containing ricin at varying concentrations andmore » is used for assessing instrument response and detection probability. The second dataset is comprised of analyses of water samples collected at a water utility which are used to assess the false positive probability. The analyses of the two sets are used to estimate the Receiver Operating Characteristic or ROC curves for the device at one set of operational and detection algorithm parameters. For these parameters and based on a statistical estimate, the ricin probability of detection is about 0.9 at a concentration of 5 nM for a false positive probability of 1 x 10{sup -6}.« less

Predictors of specific phobia in children with Williams syndrome.

PubMed

Pitts, C H; Klein-Tasman, B P; Osborne, J W; Mervis, C B

2016-10-01

Specific phobia (SP) is the most common anxiety disorder among children with Williams syndrome (WS); prevalence rates derived from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-based diagnostic interviews range from 37% to 56%. We evaluated the effects of gender, age, intellectual abilities and/or behaviour regulation difficulties on the likelihood that a child with WS would be diagnosed with SP. A total of 194 6-17 year-olds with WS were evaluated. To best characterise the relations between the predictors and the probability of a SP diagnosis, we explored not only possible linear effects but also curvilinear effects. No gender differences were detected. As age increased, the likelihood of receiving a SP diagnosis decreased. As IQ increased, the probability of receiving a SP diagnosis also decreased. Behaviour regulation difficulties were the strongest predictor of a positive diagnosis. A quadratic relation was detected: The probability of receiving a SP diagnosis gradually rose as behaviour regulation difficulties increased. However, once behaviour regulation difficulties approached the clinical range, the probability of receiving a SP diagnosis asymptoted at a high level. Children with behaviour regulation difficulties in or just below the clinical range were at the greatest risk of developing SP. These findings highlight the value of large samples and the importance of evaluating for nonlinear effects to provide accurate model specification when characterising relations among a dependent variable and possible predictors. © 2016 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

3D seismic detection of shallow faults and fluid migration pathways offshore Southern Costa Rica: Application of neural-network meta-attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kluesner, J. W.; Silver, E. A.; Nale, S. M.; Bangs, N. L.; McIntosh, K. D.

2013-12-01

We employ a seismic meta-attribute workflow to detect and analyze probable faults and fluid-pathways in 3D within the sedimentary section offshore Southern Costa Rica. During the CRISP seismic survey in 2011 we collected an 11 x 55 km grid of 3D seismic reflection data and high-resolvability EM122 multibeam data, with coverage extending from the incoming plate to the outer-shelf. We mapped numerous seafloor seep indicators, with distributions ranging from the lower-slope to ~15 km landward of the shelf break [Kluesner et al., 2013, G3, doi:10.1002/ggge.20058; Silver et al., this meeting]. We used the OpendTect software package to calculate meta-attribute volumes from the 3D seismic data in order to detect and visualize seismic discontinuities in 3D. This methodology consists of dip-steered filtering to pre-condition the data, followed by combining a set of advanced dip-steered seismic attributes into a single object probability attribute using a user-trained neural-network pattern-recognition algorithm. The parameters of the advanced seismic attributes are set for optimal detection of the desired geologic discontinuity (e.g. faults or fluid-pathways). The product is a measure of probability for the desired target that ranges between 0 and 1, with 1 representing the highest probability. Within the sedimentary section of the CRISP survey the results indicate focused fluid-migration pathways along dense networks of intersecting normal faults with approximately N-S and E-W trends. This pattern extends from the middle slope to the outer-shelf region. Dense clusters of fluid-migration pathways are located above basement highs and deeply rooted reverse faults [see Bangs et al., this meeting], including a dense zone of fluid-pathways imaged below IODP Site U1413. In addition, fault intersections frequently show an increased signal of fluid-migration and these zones may act as major conduits for fluid-flow through the sedimentary cover. Imaged fluid pathways root into high-backscatter pockmarks and mounds on the seafloor, which are located atop folds and clustered along intersecting fault planes. Combining the fault and fluid-pathway attribute volumes reveals qualitative first order information on fault seal integrity within the CRISP survey region, highlighting which faults and/or fault sections appear to be sealing or leaking within the sedimentary section. These results provide 3D insight into the fluid-flow behavior offshore southern Costa Rica and suggest that fluids escaping through the deeper crustal rocks are predominantly channeled along faults in the sedimentary cover, especially at fault intersections.

Fusion of radar and ultrasound sensors for concealed weapons detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felber, Franklin S.; Davis, Herbert T., III; Mallon, Charles E.; Wild, Norbert C.

1996-06-01

An integrated radar and ultrasound sensor, capable of remotely detecting and imaging concealed weapons, is being developed. A modified frequency-agile, mine-detection radar is intended to specify with high probability of detection at ranges of 1 to 10 m which individuals in a moving crowd may be concealing metallic or nonmetallic weapons. Within about 1 to 5 m, the active ultrasound sensor is intended to enable a user to identify a concealed weapon on a moving person with low false-detection rate, achieved through a real-time centimeter-resolution image of the weapon. The goal for sensor fusion is to have the radar acquire concealed weapons at long ranges and seamlessly hand over tracking data to the ultrasound sensor for high-resolution imaging on a video monitor. We have demonstrated centimeter-resolution ultrasound images of metallic and non-metallic weapons concealed on a human at ranges over 1 m. Processing of the ultrasound images includes filters for noise, frequency, brightness, and contrast. A frequency-agile radar has been developed by JAYCOR under the U.S. Army Advanced Mine Detection Radar Program. The signature of an armed person, detected by this radar, differs appreciably from that of the same person unarmed.

Consecutive rebounds in plasma viral load are associated with virological failure at 52 weeks among HIV-infected patients.

PubMed

Raboud, Janet M; Rae, Sandra; Woods, Ryan; Harris, Marianne; Montaner, Julio S G

2002-08-16

To describe the characteristics and predictors of transient plasma viral load (pVL) rebounds among patients on stable antiretroviral therapy and to determine the effect of one or more pVL rebounds on virological response at week 52. Individual data were combined from 358 patients from the INCAS, AVANTI-2 and AVANTI-3 studies. Logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship between the magnitude of an increase in pVL and the probability of returning to the lower limit of quantification (LLOQ: 20-50 copies/ml) and to determine the odds of virological success at 52 weeks associated with single and consecutive pVL rebounds. A group of 165 patients achieved a pVL nadir < LLOQ; of these, 85 patients experienced pVL rebounds within 52 weeks. The probability of a pVL rebound was greater among patients who did not adhere to treatment (68% vs 49%; P < 0.05). The probability of reachieving virological suppression after a pVL rebound was not associated with the magnitude of the rebound [odds ratio (OR), 0.86; P = 0.56] but was associated with triple therapy (OR, 2.22; P = 0.06) or non-adherence (OR, 0.40; P = 0.04). The probability of virological success at week 52 was not associated with an isolated pVL rebound but was less likely after detectable pVL at two consecutive visits. An isolated pVL rebound was not associated with virological success at 52 weeks but rebounds at two consecutive visits decreased the probability of later virological success. Given their high risk of short-term virological failure, patients who present with consecutive detectable pVL measurements following complete suppression should be considered ideal candidates for intervention studies.

Applications of a Fast Neutron Detector System to Verification of Special Nuclear Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayo, Douglas R.; Byrd, Roger C.; Ensslin, Norbert; Krick, Merlyn S.; Mercer, David J.; Miller, Michael C.; Prettyman, Thomas H.; Russo, Phyllis A.

1998-04-01

An array of boron-loaded plastic optically coupled to bismuth germanate scintillators has been developed to detect neutrons for measurement of special nuclear materials. The phoswiched detection system has the advantage of a high neutron detection efficiency and short die-away time. This is achieved by mixing the moderator (plastic) and the detector (^10B) at the molecular level. Simulations indicate that the neutron capture probabilities equal or exceed those of the current thermal neutron multiplicity techniques which have the moderator (polyethylene) and detectors (^3He gas proportional tubes) macroscopically separate. Experiments have been performed to characterize the response of these detectors and validate computer simulations. The fast neutron detection system may be applied to the quantitative assay of plutonium in high (α,n) backgrounds, with emphasis on safeguards and enviromental scenarios. Additional applications of the insturment, in a non-quantative mode, has been tested for possible verification activities involving dismantlement of nuclear weapons. A description of the detector system, simulations and preliminary data will be presented.

A multimodal detection model of dolphins to estimate abundance validated by field experiments.

PubMed

Akamatsu, Tomonari; Ura, Tamaki; Sugimatsu, Harumi; Bahl, Rajendar; Behera, Sandeep; Panda, Sudarsan; Khan, Muntaz; Kar, S K; Kar, C S; Kimura, Satoko; Sasaki-Yamamoto, Yukiko

2013-09-01

Abundance estimation of marine mammals requires matching of detection of an animal or a group of animal by two independent means. A multimodal detection model using visual and acoustic cues (surfacing and phonation) that enables abundance estimation of dolphins is proposed. The method does not require a specific time window to match the cues of both means for applying mark-recapture method. The proposed model was evaluated using data obtained in field observations of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, as examples of dispersed and condensed distributions of animals, respectively. The acoustic detection probability was approximately 80%, 20% higher than that of visual detection for both species, regardless of the distribution of the animals in present study sites. The abundance estimates of Ganges River dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins fairly agreed with the numbers reported in previous monitoring studies. The single animal detection probability was smaller than that of larger cluster size, as predicted by the model and confirmed by field data. However, dense groups of Irrawaddy dolphins showed difference in cluster sizes observed by visual and acoustic methods. Lower detection probability of single clusters of this species seemed to be caused by the clumped distribution of this species.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. R.; Markley, F. L.; Alfriend, K. T.; Wright, C.; Arcido, J.

2011-01-01

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Alpha-particle emission probabilities of ²³⁶U obtained by alpha spectrometry.

PubMed

Marouli, M; Pommé, S; Jobbágy, V; Van Ammel, R; Paepen, J; Stroh, H; Benedik, L

2014-05-01

High-resolution alpha-particle spectrometry was performed with an ion-implanted silicon detector in vacuum on a homogeneously electrodeposited (236)U source. The source was measured at different solid angles subtended by the detector, varying between 0.8% and 2.4% of 4π sr, to assess the influence of coincidental detection of alpha-particles and conversion electrons on the measured alpha-particle emission probabilities. Additional measurements were performed using a bending magnet to eliminate conversion electrons, the results of which coincide with normal measurements extrapolated to an infinitely small solid angle. The measured alpha emission probabilities for the three main peaks - 74.20 (5)%, 25.68 (5)% and 0.123 (5)%, respectively - are consistent with literature data, but their precision has been improved by at least one order of magnitude in this work. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2013-01-01

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

An Effort to Isolate Mycobacterium bovis from Environmental Substrates during Investigations of Bovine Tuberculosis Transmission Sites (Cattle Farms and Wildlife Areas) in Michigan, USA

PubMed Central

Fine, Amanda E.; O'Brien, Daniel J.; Winterstein, Scott R.; Kaneene, John B.

2011-01-01

Deer movements on cattle farms, wildlife feeding, and livestock management practices in Michigan are thought to create opportunities for indirect transmission of Mycobacterium bovis via environmental substrates. To confirm the presence of viable M. bovis in the environment, substrates were collected from 13 farms with culture-confirmed M. bovis in cattle and 5 sites with high prevalence of M. bovis in free-ranging deer. None of the samples processed for mycobacterial culture were positive for M. bovis. Agent, host, and landscape-level factors decrease the probability of detecting M. bovis in the environment using conventional mycobacterial culture. Molecular techniques that increase the probability of M. bovis detection in environmental substrates should be applied to known sites of M. bovis transmission in Michigan. In the interim, epidemiological investigations informed by experimental studies will be most effective in characterizing M. bovis persistence in the environment and its role in the indirect interspecies transmission of M. bovis. PMID:23738108

Detection of hail signatures from single-polarization C-band radar reflectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz, Michael; Kugel, Petra I. S.

2015-02-01

Five different criteria that estimate hail signatures from single-polarization radar data are statistically evaluated over a 15-year period by categorical verification against loss data provided by a building insurance company. The criteria consider different levels or thresholds of radar reflectivity, some of them complemented by estimates of the 0 °C level or cloud top temperature. Applied to reflectivity data from a single C-band radar in southwest Germany, it is found that all criteria are able to reproduce most of the past damage-causing hail events. However, the criteria substantially overestimate hail occurrence by up to 80%, mainly due to the verification process using damage data. Best results in terms of highest Heidke Skill Score HSS or Critical Success Index CSI are obtained for the Hail Detection Algorithm (HDA) and the Probability of Severe Hail (POSH). Radar-derived hail probability shows a high spatial variability with a maximum on the lee side of the Black Forest mountains and a minimum in the broad Rhine valley.

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.

2011-01-01

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the findings and recommendations from the NESC assessment.

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study. Volume 2; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.

2011-01-01

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the Appendices to the main report.

Fuzzy-logic detection and probability of hail exploiting short-range X-band weather radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capozzi, Vincenzo; Picciotti, Errico; Mazzarella, Vincenzo; Marzano, Frank Silvio; Budillon, Giorgio

2018-03-01

This work proposes a new method for hail precipitation detection and probability, based on single-polarization X-band radar measurements. Using a dataset consisting of reflectivity volumes, ground truth observations and atmospheric sounding data, a probability of hail index, which provides a simple estimate of the hail potential, has been trained and adapted within Naples metropolitan environment study area. The probability of hail has been calculated starting by four different hail detection methods. The first two, based on (1) reflectivity data and temperature measurements and (2) on vertically-integrated liquid density product, respectively, have been selected from the available literature. The other two techniques are based on combined criteria of the above mentioned methods: the first one (3) is based on the linear discriminant analysis, whereas the other one (4) relies on the fuzzy-logic approach. The latter is an innovative criterion based on a fuzzyfication step performed through ramp membership functions. The performances of the four methods have been tested using an independent dataset: the results highlight that the fuzzy-oriented combined method performs slightly better in terms of false alarm ratio, critical success index and area under the relative operating characteristic. An example of application of the proposed hail detection and probability products is also presented for a relevant hail event, occurred on 21 July 2014.

Moving human full body and body parts detection, tracking, and applications on human activity estimation, walking pattern and face recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hai-Wen; McGurr, Mike

2016-05-01

We have developed a new way for detection and tracking of human full-body and body-parts with color (intensity) patch morphological segmentation and adaptive thresholding for security surveillance cameras. An adaptive threshold scheme has been developed for dealing with body size changes, illumination condition changes, and cross camera parameter changes. Tests with the PETS 2009 and 2014 datasets show that we can obtain high probability of detection and low probability of false alarm for full-body. Test results indicate that our human full-body detection method can considerably outperform the current state-of-the-art methods in both detection performance and computational complexity. Furthermore, in this paper, we have developed several methods using color features for detection and tracking of human body-parts (arms, legs, torso, and head, etc.). For example, we have developed a human skin color sub-patch segmentation algorithm by first conducting a RGB to YIQ transformation and then applying a Subtractive I/Q image Fusion with morphological operations. With this method, we can reliably detect and track human skin color related body-parts such as face, neck, arms, and legs. Reliable body-parts (e.g. head) detection allows us to continuously track the individual person even in the case that multiple closely spaced persons are merged. Accordingly, we have developed a new algorithm to split a merged detection blob back to individual detections based on the detected head positions. Detected body-parts also allow us to extract important local constellation features of the body-parts positions and angles related to the full-body. These features are useful for human walking gait pattern recognition and human pose (e.g. standing or falling down) estimation for potential abnormal behavior and accidental event detection, as evidenced with our experimental tests. Furthermore, based on the reliable head (face) tacking, we have applied a super-resolution algorithm to enhance the face resolution for improved human face recognition performance.

Efficiency of prompt quarantine measures on a susceptible-infected-removed model in networks.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Takehisa; Nemoto, Koji

2017-08-01

This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately after it becomes infected and the detected one and its neighbors are promptly isolated. The efficiency of this quarantine in suppressing a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is tested in random graphs and uncorrelated scale-free networks. Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the prompt quarantine measure outperforms random and acquaintance preventive vaccination schemes in terms of reducing the number of infected individuals. The epidemic threshold for the SIR model is analytically derived under the quarantine measure, and the theoretical findings indicate that prompt executions of quarantines are highly effective in containing epidemics. Even if infected individuals are detected with a very low probability, the SIR model under a prompt quarantine measure has finite epidemic thresholds in fat-tailed scale-free networks in which an infected individual can always cause an outbreak of a finite relative size without any measure. The numerical simulations also demonstrate that the present quarantine measure is effective in suppressing epidemics in real networks.

Efficiency of prompt quarantine measures on a susceptible-infected-removed model in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasegawa, Takehisa; Nemoto, Koji

2017-08-01

This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately after it becomes infected and the detected one and its neighbors are promptly isolated. The efficiency of this quarantine in suppressing a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is tested in random graphs and uncorrelated scale-free networks. Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the prompt quarantine measure outperforms random and acquaintance preventive vaccination schemes in terms of reducing the number of infected individuals. The epidemic threshold for the SIR model is analytically derived under the quarantine measure, and the theoretical findings indicate that prompt executions of quarantines are highly effective in containing epidemics. Even if infected individuals are detected with a very low probability, the SIR model under a prompt quarantine measure has finite epidemic thresholds in fat-tailed scale-free networks in which an infected individual can always cause an outbreak of a finite relative size without any measure. The numerical simulations also demonstrate that the present quarantine measure is effective in suppressing epidemics in real networks.

High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G

2017-08-01

The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the Pacific discards a climate-related decline and point to anthropogenic sources of mortality as the main causes responsible for the observed population decline. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Measuring multielectron beam imaging fidelity with a signal-to-noise ratio analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhtar, Maseeh; Bunday, Benjamin D.; Quoi, Kathy; Malloy, Matt; Thiel, Brad

2016-07-01

Java Monte Carlo Simulator for Secondary Electrons (JMONSEL) simulations are used to generate expected imaging responses of chosen test cases of patterns and defects with the ability to vary parameters for beam energy, spot size, pixel size, and/or defect material and form factor. The patterns are representative of the design rules for an aggressively scaled FinFET-type design. With these simulated images and resulting shot noise, a signal-to-noise framework is developed, which relates to defect detection probabilities. Additionally, with this infrastructure, the effect of detection chain noise and frequency-dependent system response can be made, allowing for targeting of best recipe parameters for multielectron beam inspection validation experiments. Ultimately, these results should lead to insights into how such parameters will impact tool design, including necessary doses for defect detection and estimations of scanning speeds for achieving high throughput for high-volume manufacturing.

A plastic scintillator-based muon tomography system with an integrated muon spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghel, V.; Armitage, J.; Baig, F.; Boniface, K.; Boudjemline, K.; Bueno, J.; Charles, E.; Drouin, P.-L.; Erlandson, A.; Gallant, G.; Gazit, R.; Godin, D.; Golovko, V. V.; Howard, C.; Hydomako, R.; Jewett, C.; Jonkmans, G.; Liu, Z.; Robichaud, A.; Stocki, T. J.; Thompson, M.; Waller, D.

2015-10-01

A muon scattering tomography system which uses extruded plastic scintillator bars for muon tracking and a dedicated muon spectrometer that measures scattering through steel slabs has been constructed and successfully tested. The atmospheric muon detection efficiency is measured to be 97% per plane on average and the average intrinsic hit resolution is 2.5 mm. In addition to creating a variety of three-dimensional images of objects of interest, a quantitative study has been carried out to investigate the impact of including muon momentum measurements when attempting to detect high-density, high-Z material. As expected, the addition of momentum information improves the performance of the system. For a fixed data-taking time of 60 s and a fixed false positive fraction, the probability to detect a target increases when momentum information is used. This is the first demonstration of the use of muon momentum information from dedicated spectrometer measurements in muon scattering tomography.

Radar and infrared remote sensing of geothermal features at Pilgrim Springs, Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, K. G.; Forbes, R. B.; Turner, D. L.; Eaton, F. D.; Sullivan, K. D.

1982-01-01

High-altitude radar and thermal imagery collected by the NASA research aircraft WB57F were used to examine the structural setting and distribution of radiant temperatures of geothermal anomalies in the Pilgrim Springs, Alaska area. Like-polarized radar imagery with perpendicular look directions provides the best structural data for lineament analysis, although more than half the mapped lineaments are easily detectable on conventional aerial photography. Radiometer data and imagery from a thermal scanner were used to evaluate radiant surface temperatures, which ranged from 3 to 17 C. The evening imagery, which utilized density-slicing techniques, detected thermal anomalies associated with geothermal heat sources. The study indicates that high-altitude predawn thermal imagery may be able to locate relatively large areas of hot ground in site-specific studies in the vegetated Alaskan terrain. This imagery will probably not detect gentle lateral gradients.

The recognition of extraterrestrial artificial signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seeger, C. L.

1980-01-01

Considerations in the design of receivers for the detection and recognition of artificial microwave signals of extraterrestrial origin are discussed. Following a review of the objectives of SETI and the probable reception and detection characteristics of extraterrestrial signals, means for the improvement of the sensitivity, signal-to-noise ratios and on-line data processing capabilities of SETI receivers are indicated. The characteristics of the signals likely to be present at the output of an ultra-low-noise microwave receiver are then examined, including the system background noise, terrestrial radiations, astrophysical radiations, accidental artificial radiations of terrestrial origin, and intentional radiations produced by humans and by extraterrestrial intelligence. The classes of extraterrestrial signals likely to be detected, beacons and leakage signals, are considered, and options in the specification of gating and thresholding for a high-spectral resolution, high-time-resolution signal discriminator are indicated. Possible tests for the nonhuman origin of a received signal are also pointed out.

Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

2017-03-01

Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

Near-infrared reflectance of zunyite: implications for field mapping and remote-sensing detection of hydrothermally altered high alumina rocks.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crowley, J.K.

1984-01-01

Several hydroxyl-bearing minerals have diagnostic absorption bands in the 2.0-2.4 mu m wave length range, and can be identified with an orbital radiometer and with high-resolution airborne and field portable spectrometers. Among such minerals, zunyite, 143Al13Si5O20(OH,F)18Cl, has distinctive spectral absorption characteristics and is notably restricted to, and thus an indicator mineral of, advanced argillic alteration. Although seldom noted because it visually resembles quartz, zunyite is probably not as rare as generally believed. Laboratory measurements and general considerations underlie suggestions favouring the feasibility of detecting zunyite, alone and in mixtures with other Al-OH minerals, using field portable spectrometers.-G.J.N.

Identification of novel sulfur-containing steroids in sediments and petroleum: probable incorporation of sulfur into δ 5,7-sterols during early diagenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Schouten, Stefan; de Leeuw, Jan W.; van Duin, Adri C. T.; Geenevasen, Jan A. J.

1999-01-01

A novel sulfur-containing sterane, 4α,7α-epithio-5β-cholestane, has been identified in a sediment extract from the Miocene Northern Apennines marl (Italy) after its isolation by column chromatography and high pressure liquid chromatography. The compound has been characterised by GC-MS and mild Nickel boride desulfurisation and one and two-dimensional 1H NMR techniques. C 27-C 29 homologs have been detected in sediment extracts of three different formations and in one petroleum sample. These sulfur-containing steroids are probably formed by an intramolecular reaction of inorganic sulfides with early diagenetic products of Δ 5,7-sterols.

Wavefront-Guided Versus Wavefront-Optimized Photorefractive Keratectomy: Visual and Military Task Performance.

PubMed

Ryan, Denise S; Sia, Rose K; Stutzman, Richard D; Pasternak, Joseph F; Howard, Robin S; Howell, Christopher L; Maurer, Tana; Torres, Mark F; Bower, Kraig S

2017-01-01

To compare visual performance, marksmanship performance, and threshold target identification following wavefront-guided (WFG) versus wavefront-optimized (WFO) photorefractive keratectomy (PRK). In this prospective, randomized clinical trial, active duty U.S. military Soldiers, age 21 or over, electing to undergo PRK were randomized to undergo WFG (n = 27) or WFO (n = 27) PRK for myopia or myopic astigmatism. Binocular visual performance was assessed preoperatively and 1, 3, and 6 months postoperatively: Super Vision Test high contrast, Super Vision Test contrast sensitivity (CS), and 25% contrast acuity with night vision goggle filter. CS function was generated testing at five spatial frequencies. Marksmanship performance in low light conditions was evaluated in a firing tunnel. Target detection and identification performance was tested for probability of identification of varying target sets and probability of detection of humans in cluttered environments. Visual performance, CS function, marksmanship, and threshold target identification demonstrated no statistically significant differences over time between the two treatments. Exploratory regression analysis of firing range tasks at 6 months showed no significant differences or correlations between procedures. Regression analysis of vehicle and handheld probability of identification showed a significant association with pretreatment performance. Both WFG and WFO PRK results translate to excellent and comparable visual and military performance. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Are ranger patrols effective in reducing poaching-related threats within protected areas?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Jennnifer F.; Mulindahabi, Felix; Masozera, Michel K.; Nichols, James; Hines, James; Turikunkiko, Ezechiel; Oli, Madan K.

2018-01-01

Poaching is one of the greatest threats to wildlife conservation world-wide. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of poaching activities within protected areas, and the effectiveness of ranger patrols and ranger posts in mitigating these threats, are relatively unknown.We used 10 years (2006–2015) of ranger-based monitoring data and dynamic multi-season occupancy models to quantify poaching-related threats, to examine factors influencing the spatio-temporal dynamics of these threats and to test the efficiency of management actions to combat poaching in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda.The probability of occurrence of poaching-related threats was highest at lower elevations (1,801–2,200 m), especially in areas that were close to roads and tourist trails; conversely, occurrence probability was lowest at high elevation sites (2,601–3,000 m), and near the park boundary and ranger posts. The number of ranger patrols substantially increased the probability that poaching-related threats disappear at a site if threats were originally present (i.e. probability of extinction of threats). Without ranger visits, the annual probability of extinction of poaching-related threats was an estimated 7%; this probability would increase to 20% and 57% with 20 and 50 ranger visits per year, respectively.Our results suggest that poaching-related threats can be effectively reduced in NNP by adding ranger posts in areas where they do not currently exist, and by increasing the number of patrols to sites where the probability of poaching activities is high.Synthesis and applications. Our application of dynamic occupancy models to predict the probability of presence of poaching-related threats is novel, and explicitly considers imperfect detection of illegal activities. Based on the modelled relationships, we identify areas that are most vulnerable to poaching, and offer insights regarding how ranger patrols can be optimally deployed to reduce poaching-related threats and other illegal activites, while taking into account potential sampling biases. We show that poaching can be effectively reduced by increasing ranger patrols to areas under high risk of poaching activities, and by adding ranger patrols near these sites. These findings are broadly applicable to national parks and protected areas experiencing a high degree of poaching and other illegal activities.

An evaluation of the efficacy of using environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wood, Dustin A.; Bowen, Lizabeth; Waters, Shannon C.; Vandergast, Amy G.; Ersan, Julia S.; Skalos, Shannon M.; Casazza, Michael L.

2017-09-28

Detecting populations of rare or cryptic species is essential for their conservation. For species like giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas), conventional survey methods can be expensive and inefficient. These sampling difficulties might be overcome by modern techniques that detect deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) shed by organisms into the environment (eDNA). We evaluated the efficacy of detecting giant gartersnake eDNA in water samples from the laboratory and at locations with known giant gartersnake populations in the Sacramento Valley of California, and failed to detect giant gartersnake DNA in most laboratory and all field samples. Aspects of giant gartersnake biology—such as highly keratinized skin and spending extensive time in the terrestrial environment, as well as hot, sunny, and turbid conditions in wetlands and canals of the Sacramento Valley—likely contributed to low detection probabilities. Although detection of eDNA shows promise under many conditions, further development is needed before sampling for eDNA is a viable option for detecting giant gartersnake populations.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Fusion of Scores in a Detection Context Based on Alpha Integration.

PubMed

Soriano, Antonio; Vergara, Luis; Ahmed, Bouziane; Salazar, Addisson

2015-09-01

We present a new method for fusing scores corresponding to different detectors (two-hypotheses case). It is based on alpha integration, which we have adapted to the detection context. Three optimization methods are presented: least mean square error, maximization of the area under the ROC curve, and minimization of the probability of error. Gradient algorithms are proposed for the three methods. Different experiments with simulated and real data are included. Simulated data consider the two-detector case to illustrate the factors influencing alpha integration and demonstrate the improvements obtained by score fusion with respect to individual detector performance. Two real data cases have been considered. In the first, multimodal biometric data have been processed. This case is representative of scenarios in which the probability of detection is to be maximized for a given probability of false alarm. The second case is the automatic analysis of electroencephalogram and electrocardiogram records with the aim of reproducing the medical expert detections of arousal during sleeping. This case is representative of scenarios in which probability of error is to be minimized. The general superior performance of alpha integration verifies the interest of optimizing the fusing parameters.

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2015-01-01

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.

Morphogenesis of early stage melanoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatelain, Clément; Amar, Martine Ben

2015-08-01

Melanoma early detection is possible by simple skin examination and can insure a high survival probability when successful. However it requires efficient methods for identifying malignant lesions from common moles. This paper provides an overview first of the biological and physical mechanisms controlling melanoma early evolution, and then of the clinical tools available today for detecting melanoma in vivo at an early stage. It highlights the lack of diagnosis methods rationally linking macroscopic observables to the microscopic properties of the tissue, which define the malignancy of the tumor. The possible inputs of multiscale models for improving these methods are shortly discussed.

Atom-counting in High Resolution Electron Microscopy:TEM or STEM - That's the question.

PubMed

Gonnissen, J; De Backer, A; den Dekker, A J; Sijbers, J; Van Aert, S

2017-03-01

In this work, a recently developed quantitative approach based on the principles of detection theory is used in order to determine the possibilities and limitations of High Resolution Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (HR STEM) and HR TEM for atom-counting. So far, HR STEM has been shown to be an appropriate imaging mode to count the number of atoms in a projected atomic column. Recently, it has been demonstrated that HR TEM, when using negative spherical aberration imaging, is suitable for atom-counting as well. The capabilities of both imaging techniques are investigated and compared using the probability of error as a criterion. It is shown that for the same incoming electron dose, HR STEM outperforms HR TEM under common practice standards, i.e. when the decision is based on the probability function of the peak intensities in HR TEM and of the scattering cross-sections in HR STEM. If the atom-counting decision is based on the joint probability function of the image pixel values, the dependence of all image pixel intensities as a function of thickness should be known accurately. Under this assumption, the probability of error may decrease significantly for atom-counting in HR TEM and may, in theory, become lower as compared to HR STEM under the predicted optimal experimental settings. However, the commonly used standard for atom-counting in HR STEM leads to a high performance and has been shown to work in practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling anuran detection and site occupancy on North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) routes in Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weir, L.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Nanjappa, P.; Jung, R.E.

2005-01-01

One of the most fundamental problems in monitoring animal populations is that of imperfect detection. Although imperfect detection can be modeled, studies examining patterns in occurrence often ignore detection and thus fail to properly partition variation in detection from that of occurrence. In this study, we used anuran calling survey data collected on North American Amphibian Monitoring Program routes in eastern Maryland to investigate factors that influence detection probability and site occupancy for 10 anuran species. In 2002, 17 calling survey routes in eastern Maryland were surveyed to collect environmental and species data nine or more times. To analyze these data, we developed models incorporating detection probability and site occupancy. The results suggest that, for more than half of the 10 species, detection probabilities vary most with season (i.e., day-of-year), air temperature, time, and moon illumination, whereas site occupancy may vary by the amount of palustrine forested wetland habitat. Our results suggest anuran calling surveys should document air temperature, time of night, moon illumination, observer skill, and habitat change over time, as these factors can be important to model-adjusted estimates of site occupancy. Our study represents the first formal modeling effort aimed at developing an analytic assessment framework for NAAMP calling survey data.

Investigating the probability of detection of typical cavity shapes through modelling and comparison of geophysical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, P.

2011-12-01

With a growing need for housing in the U.K., the government has proposed increased development of brownfield sites. However, old mine workings and natural cavities represent a potential hazard before, during and after construction on such sites, and add further complication to subsurface parameters. Cavities are hence a limitation to certain redevelopment and their detection is an ever important consideration. The current standard technique for cavity detection is a borehole grid, which is intrusive, non-continuous, slow and expensive. A new robust investigation standard in the detection of cavities is sought and geophysical techniques offer an attractive alternative. Geophysical techniques have previously been utilised successfully in the detection of cavities in various geologies, but still has an uncertain reputation in the engineering industry. Engineers are unsure of the techniques and are inclined to rely on well known techniques than utilise new technologies. Bad experiences with geophysics are commonly due to the indiscriminate choice of particular techniques. It is imperative that a geophysical survey is designed with the specific site and target in mind at all times, and the ability and judgement to rule out some, or all, techniques. To this author's knowledge no comparative software exists to aid technique choice. Also, previous modelling software limit the shapes of bodies and hence typical cavity shapes are not represented. Here, we introduce 3D modelling software (Matlab) which computes and compares the response to various cavity targets from a range of techniques (gravity, gravity gradient, magnetic, magnetic gradient and GPR). Typical near surface cavity shapes are modelled including shafts, bellpits, various lining and capping materials, and migrating voids. The probability of cavity detection is assessed in typical subsurface and noise conditions across a range of survey parameters. Techniques can be compared and the limits of detection distance assessed. The density of survey points required to achieve a required probability of detection can be calculated. The software aids discriminate choice of technique, improves survey design, and increases the likelihood of survey success; all factors sought in the engineering industry. As a simple example, the response from magnetometry, gravimetry, and gravity gradient techniques above an example 3m deep, 1m cube air cavity in limestone across a 15m grid was calculated. The maximum responses above the cavity are small (amplitudes of 0.018nT, 0.0013mGal, 8.3eotvos respectively), but at typical site noise levels the detection reliability is over 50% for the gradient gravity method on a single survey line. Increasing the number of survey points across the site increases the reliability of detection of the anomaly by the addition of probabilities. We can calculate the probability of detection at different profile spacings to assess the best possible survey design. At 1m spacing the overall probability of by the gradient gravity method is over 90%, and over 60% for magnetometry (at 3m spacing the probability drops to 32%). The use of modelling in near surface surveys is a useful tool to assess the feasibility of a range of techniques to detect subtle signals. Future work will integrate this work with borehole measured parameters.

Estimating the influence of population density and dispersal behavior on the ability to detect and monitor Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations.

PubMed

Mercader, R J; Siegert, N W; McCullough, D G

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees native to Asia, was first discovered in North America in 2002. Since then, A. planipennis has been found in 15 states and two Canadian provinces and has killed tens of millions of ash trees. Understanding the probability of detecting and accurately delineating low density populations of A. planipennis is a key component of effective management strategies. Here we approach this issue by 1) quantifying the efficiency of sampling nongirdled ash trees to detect new infestations of A. planipennis under varying population densities and 2) evaluating the likelihood of accurately determining the localized spread of discrete A. planipennis infestations. To estimate the probability a sampled tree would be detected as infested across a gradient of A. planipennis densities, we used A. planipennis larval density estimates collected during intensive surveys conducted in three recently infested sites with known origins. Results indicated the probability of detecting low density populations by sampling nongirdled trees was very low, even when detection tools were assumed to have three-fold higher detection probabilities than nongirdled trees. Using these results and an A. planipennis spread model, we explored the expected accuracy with which the spatial extent of an A. planipennis population could be determined. Model simulations indicated a poor ability to delineate the extent of the distribution of localized A. planipennis populations, particularly when a small proportion of the population was assumed to have a higher propensity for dispersal.

Estimation of the POD function and the LOD of a qualitative microbiological measurement method.

PubMed

Wilrich, Cordula; Wilrich, Peter-Theodor

2009-01-01

Qualitative microbiological measurement methods in which the measurement results are either 0 (microorganism not detected) or 1 (microorganism detected) are discussed. The performance of such a measurement method is described by its probability of detection as a function of the contamination (CFU/g or CFU/mL) of the test material, or by the LOD(p), i.e., the contamination that is detected (measurement result 1) with a specified probability p. A complementary log-log model was used to statistically estimate these performance characteristics. An intralaboratory experiment for the detection of Listeria monocytogenes in various food matrixes illustrates the method. The estimate of LOD50% is compared with the Spearman-Kaerber method.

Accounting for Incomplete Species Detection in Fish Community Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A; Orth, Dr. Donald J; Jager, Yetta

2013-01-01

Riverine fish assemblages are heterogeneous and very difficult to characterize with a one-size-fits-all approach to sampling. Furthermore, detecting changes in fish assemblages over time requires accounting for variation in sampling designs. We present a modeling approach that permits heterogeneous sampling by accounting for site and sampling covariates (including method) in a model-based framework for estimation (versus a sampling-based framework). We snorkeled during three surveys and electrofished during a single survey in suite of delineated habitats stratified by reach types. We developed single-species occupancy models to determine covariates influencing patch occupancy and species detection probabilities whereas community occupancy models estimated speciesmore » richness in light of incomplete detections. For most species, information-theoretic criteria showed higher support for models that included patch size and reach as covariates of occupancy. In addition, models including patch size and sampling method as covariates of detection probabilities also had higher support. Detection probability estimates for snorkeling surveys were higher for larger non-benthic species whereas electrofishing was more effective at detecting smaller benthic species. The number of sites and sampling occasions required to accurately estimate occupancy varied among fish species. For rare benthic species, our results suggested that higher number of occasions, and especially the addition of electrofishing, may be required to improve detection probabilities and obtain accurate occupancy estimates. Community models suggested that richness was 41% higher than the number of species actually observed and the addition of an electrofishing survey increased estimated richness by 13%. These results can be useful to future fish assemblage monitoring efforts by informing sampling designs, such as site selection (e.g. stratifying based on patch size) and determining effort required (e.g. number of sites versus occasions).« less

Multiphoton Production and Detection of Atoms.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-01

photodissociation of metal ligand analogues of ferrocene would cleanly photodis- sociate to give metal atoms, producing atomic cobalt, ruthinium, nickel...in the exper- iments with triphenyl phosphine and phosphine , only at high I pressures, with a long-pulse (1 microsecond) laser. Sulphur atoms were...unassigned in our experiments. These probably originate in the poorly understood metastable SO state. Ashfold et.al., in their work on MPD/MPI on phosphine

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks.

PubMed

He, Jieyue; Wang, Chunyan; Qiu, Kunpu; Zhong, Wei

2014-01-01

Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism evaluation based on circuit simulation method excludes most of subgraphs which are not probability isomorphism and reduces the search space of the probability isomorphism subgraphs using the mismatch values in the node voltage set. It is an innovative way to find the frequent probability patterns, which can be efficiently applied to probability motif discovery problems in the further studies.

An novel frequent probability pattern mining algorithm based on circuit simulation method in uncertain biological networks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Motif mining has always been a hot research topic in bioinformatics. Most of current research on biological networks focuses on exact motif mining. However, due to the inevitable experimental error and noisy data, biological network data represented as the probability model could better reflect the authenticity and biological significance, therefore, it is more biological meaningful to discover probability motif in uncertain biological networks. One of the key steps in probability motif mining is frequent pattern discovery which is usually based on the possible world model having a relatively high computational complexity. Methods In this paper, we present a novel method for detecting frequent probability patterns based on circuit simulation in the uncertain biological networks. First, the partition based efficient search is applied to the non-tree like subgraph mining where the probability of occurrence in random networks is small. Then, an algorithm of probability isomorphic based on circuit simulation is proposed. The probability isomorphic combines the analysis of circuit topology structure with related physical properties of voltage in order to evaluate the probability isomorphism between probability subgraphs. The circuit simulation based probability isomorphic can avoid using traditional possible world model. Finally, based on the algorithm of probability subgraph isomorphism, two-step hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster subgraphs, and discover frequent probability patterns from the clusters. Results The experiment results on data sets of the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) networks and the transcriptional regulatory networks of E. coli and S. cerevisiae show that the proposed method can efficiently discover the frequent probability subgraphs. The discovered subgraphs in our study contain all probability motifs reported in the experiments published in other related papers. Conclusions The algorithm of probability graph isomorphism evaluation based on circuit simulation method excludes most of subgraphs which are not probability isomorphism and reduces the search space of the probability isomorphism subgraphs using the mismatch values in the node voltage set. It is an innovative way to find the frequent probability patterns, which can be efficiently applied to probability motif discovery problems in the further studies. PMID:25350277

Fast algorithm for probabilistic bone edge detection (FAPBED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scepanovic, Danilo; Kirshtein, Joshua; Jain, Ameet K.; Taylor, Russell H.

2005-04-01

The registration of preoperative CT to intra-operative reality systems is a crucial step in Computer Assisted Orthopedic Surgery (CAOS). The intra-operative sensors include 3D digitizers, fiducials, X-rays and Ultrasound (US). FAPBED is designed to process CT volumes for registration to tracked US data. Tracked US is advantageous because it is real time, noninvasive, and non-ionizing, but it is also known to have inherent inaccuracies which create the need to develop a framework that is robust to various uncertainties, and can be useful in US-CT registration. Furthermore, conventional registration methods depend on accurate and absolute segmentation. Our proposed probabilistic framework addresses the segmentation-registration duality, wherein exact segmentation is not a prerequisite to achieve accurate registration. In this paper, we develop a method for fast and automatic probabilistic bone surface (edge) detection in CT images. Various features that influence the likelihood of the surface at each spatial coordinate are combined using a simple probabilistic framework, which strikes a fair balance between a high-level understanding of features in an image and the low-level number crunching of standard image processing techniques. The algorithm evaluates different features for detecting the probability of a bone surface at each voxel, and compounds the results of these methods to yield a final, low-noise, probability map of bone surfaces in the volume. Such a probability map can then be used in conjunction with a similar map from tracked intra-operative US to achieve accurate registration. Eight sample pelvic CT scans were used to extract feature parameters and validate the final probability maps. An un-optimized fully automatic Matlab code runs in five minutes per CT volume on average, and was validated by comparison against hand-segmented gold standards. The mean probability assigned to nonzero surface points was 0.8, while nonzero non-surface points had a mean value of 0.38 indicating clear identification of surface points on average. The segmentation was also sufficiently crisp, with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) value of 1.51 voxels.

Parkinson Disease Detection from Speech Articulation Neuromechanics.

PubMed

Gómez-Vilda, Pedro; Mekyska, Jiri; Ferrández, José M; Palacios-Alonso, Daniel; Gómez-Rodellar, Andrés; Rodellar-Biarge, Victoria; Galaz, Zoltan; Smekal, Zdenek; Eliasova, Ilona; Kostalova, Milena; Rektorova, Irena

2017-01-01

Aim: The research described is intended to give a description of articulation dynamics as a correlate of the kinematic behavior of the jaw-tongue biomechanical system, encoded as a probability distribution of an absolute joint velocity. This distribution may be used in detecting and grading speech from patients affected by neurodegenerative illnesses, as Parkinson Disease. Hypothesis: The work hypothesis is that the probability density function of the absolute joint velocity includes information on the stability of phonation when applied to sustained vowels, as well as on fluency if applied to connected speech. Methods: A dataset of sustained vowels recorded from Parkinson Disease patients is contrasted with similar recordings from normative subjects. The probability distribution of the absolute kinematic velocity of the jaw-tongue system is extracted from each utterance. A Random Least Squares Feed-Forward Network (RLSFN) has been used as a binary classifier working on the pathological and normative datasets in a leave-one-out strategy. Monte Carlo simulations have been conducted to estimate the influence of the stochastic nature of the classifier. Two datasets for each gender were tested (males and females) including 26 normative and 53 pathological subjects in the male set, and 25 normative and 38 pathological in the female set. Results: Male and female data subsets were tested in single runs, yielding equal error rates under 0.6% (Accuracy over 99.4%). Due to the stochastic nature of each experiment, Monte Carlo runs were conducted to test the reliability of the methodology. The average detection results after 200 Montecarlo runs of a 200 hyperplane hidden layer RLSFN are given in terms of Sensitivity (males: 0.9946, females: 0.9942), Specificity (males: 0.9944, females: 0.9941) and Accuracy (males: 0.9945, females: 0.9942). The area under the ROC curve is 0.9947 (males) and 0.9945 (females). The equal error rate is 0.0054 (males) and 0.0057 (females). Conclusions: The proposed methodology avails that the use of highly normalized descriptors as the probability distribution of kinematic variables of vowel articulation stability, which has some interesting properties in terms of information theory, boosts the potential of simple yet powerful classifiers in producing quite acceptable detection results in Parkinson Disease.

Response preparation and intra-individual reaction time variability in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Dankinas, Denisas; Mėlynytė, Sigita; Šiurkutė, Aldona; Dapšys, Kastytis

2016-01-01

Background. It is important to prepare response in advance to increase the efficiency of its execution. The process of response preparation is usually studied using the precueing paradigm. In this paradigm subjects have to employ the preceding information about further imperative stimulus to perform proper response preparation, which shortens the reaction time of subsequent response execution. Previous studies detected the impairment of response preparation in schizophrenia only with the help of electroencephalographic parameters, but not with the assessing of reaction time. Therefore, in this study we attempted to find a behavioural parameter that could detect impairment in response preparation of schizophrenia patients. It was recently found that appropriate response preparation not only shortens the reaction time but also increases its stability, which is measured with the intra-individual reaction time variability. It was also revealed that response stability could better find cognitive dysfunction in some studies of schizophrenia disorder than classical behavioural parameters. Hence, the main goal of this study was to verify if intra-individual reaction time variability could detect the impairment of response preparation in schizophrenia patients. Materials and methods. In order to achieve the main purpose, we carried out a study with 14 schizophrenia patients and 14 control group subjects. We used precueing paradigm in our research, in which participants had to employ information about stimulus probability for the proper response preparation. Results. Our main result showed that despite the responses of schizophrenia patients were faster to the high-probability stimulus than to the low-probability one ( F (1, 13) = 30.9, p < 0.001), intra-individual reaction time variability did not differ in this group between the responses to more and less probable stimuli ( F (1, 13) = 0.64, p = 0.44). Conclusions. Results of the study suggest that people with schizophrenia were able to use precueing probabilistic information only to shorten their reaction time, but not to increase response stability. Therefore, it was found that intra-individual reaction time variability parameter could detect response preparation impairment in schizophrenia, and could be used in clinical purposes.

Radioisotope scanning of brain, liver, lung and bone with a note on tumour localizing agents

PubMed Central

Lavender, J. P.

1973-01-01

Radioisotopic scanning of brain, liver, lungs and the skeleton is briefly reviewed with a survey of recent developments of clinical significance. In brain scanning neoplasm detection rates of greater than 90% are claimed. The true figure is probably 70-80%. Autopsy data shows a number of false negatives, particularly with vascular lesions. Attempts to make scanning more specific in differentiating neoplasm from vascular lesions by rapid sequence blood flow studies are reviewed. In liver scanning by means of colloids again high success rate is claimed but small metastases are frequently missed and the false negative scan rate is probably quite high. Lung scanning still has its main place in investigating pulmonary embolic disease. Ventilation studies using Xenon 133 are useful, particularly combined with perfusion studies. The various radiopharmaceuticals for use in bone scanning are reviewed. The appearance of technetium labelled phosphate compounds will probably allow much wider use of total skeletal scanning. Research into tumour localizing agents continues, the most recent and interesting being Gallium citrate and labelled bleomycin. Neither agent is predictable however although Gallium may have a place in Hodgkins disease and bronchogenic neoplasm and both may have a place in the detection of cerebral tumours. ImagesFig. 1Fig. 2Fig. 3p452-bFig. 3bFig. 4Fig. 5Fig. 5bFig. 6Fig. 7Fig. 8Fig. 9Fig. 10Fig. 11Fig. 12Fig. 12c & 12dFig. 13Fig. 13 b,c,dFig. 14Fig. 14bFig. 15Fig. 15bFig. 16Fig. 17Fig. 18 PMID:4602127

Prevalence rate, predictors and long-term course of probable posttraumatic stress disorder after major trauma: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Among trauma patients relatively high prevalence rates of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been found. To identify opportunities for prevention and early treatment, predictors and course of PTSD need to be investigated. Long-term follow-up studies of injury patients may help gain more insight into the course of PTSD and subgroups at risk for PTSD. The aim of our long-term prospective cohort study was to assess the prevalence rate and predictors, including pre-hospital trauma care (assistance of physician staffed Emergency Medical Services (EMS) at the scene of the accident), of probable PTSD in a sample of major trauma patients at one and two years after injury. The second aim was to assess the long-term course of probable PTSD following injury. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted of 332 major trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 or higher. We used data from the hospital trauma registry and self-assessment surveys that included the Impact of Event Scale (IES) to measure probable PTSD symptoms. An IES-score of 35 or higher was used as indication for the presence of probable PTSD. Results One year after injury measurements of 226 major trauma patients were obtained (response rate 68%). Of these patients 23% had an IES-score of 35 or higher, indicating probable PTSD. At two years after trauma the prevalence rate of probable PTSD was 20%. Female gender and co-morbid disease were strong predictors of probable PTSD one year following injury, whereas minor to moderate head injury and injury of the extremities (AIS less than 3) were strong predictors of this disorder at two year follow-up. Of the patients with probable PTSD at one year follow-up 79% had persistent PTSD symptoms a year later. Conclusions Up to two years after injury probable PTSD is highly prevalent in a population of patients with major trauma. The majority of patients suffered from prolonged effects of PTSD, underlining the importance of prevention, early detection, and treatment of injury-related PTSD. PMID:23270522

Future Volcanism at Yucca Mountain - Statistical Insights from the Non-Detection of Basalt Intrusions in the Potential Repository

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, N.; Abramson, L.

2004-05-01

Yucca Mt. (YM) is a potential repository site for high-level radioactive waste and spent fuel. One issue is the potential for future igneous activity to intersect the repository. If the event probability is <1E-8/yr, it need not be considered in licensing. Plio-Quaternary volcanos and older basalts occur near YM. Connor et al (JGR, 2000) estimate a probability of 1E-8/yr to 1E-7/yr for a basaltic dike to intersect the potential repository. Based on aeromagnetic data, Hill and Stamatakos (CNWRA, 2002) propose that additional volcanos may lie buried in nearby basins. They suggest if these volcanos are part of temporal-clustered volcanic activity, the probability of an intrusion may be as high as 1E-6/yr. We examine whether recurrence probabilities >2E-7/yr are realistic given that no dikes have been found in or above the 1.3E7 yr-old potential repository block. For 2E-7/yr (or 1E-6/yr), the expected number of penetrating dikes is 2.6 (respectively, 13), and the probability of at least one penetration is 0.93 (0.999). These results are not consistent with the exploration evidence. YM is one of the most intensively studied places on Earth. Over 20 yrs of studies have included surface and subsurface mapping, geophysical surveys, construction of 10+ km of tunnels in the mountain, drilling of many boreholes, and construction of many pits (DOE, Site Recommendation, 2002). It seems unlikely that multiple dikes could exist within the proposed repository footprint and escape detection. A dike complex dated 11.7 Ma (Smith et al, UNLV, 1997) or 10 Ma (Carr and Parrish, 1985) does exist NW of YM and west of the main Solitario Canyon Fault. These basalts intruded the Tiva Canyon Tuff (12.7 Ma) in an epoch of caldera-forming pyroclastic eruptions that ended millions of yrs ago. We would conclude that basaltic volcanism related to Miocene silicic volcanism may also have ended. Given the nondetection of dikes in the potential repository, we can use a Poisson model to estimate an upper-bound probability of 2E-7/yr (95% conf. level) for an igneous intrusion over the next 1E4 yrs. If we assume one undiscovered dike exists, the upper-bound probability would rise to 4E-7/yr. Higher probabilities may be possible if conditions that fostered Plio-Quaternary volcanism became enhanced over time. To the contrary, basalts of the past 11 Ma in Crater Flat have erupted in four episodes that together show a declining trend in erupted magma volume (DOE, TBD13, 2003). Smith et al (GSA Today, 2002) suggest there may be a common magma source for volcanism in Crater Flat and the Lunar Crater volcanic field, and that recurrence rates for YM could be underestimated. Their interpretation is highly speculative given the 130-km (80-mi) distance between these zones. A claim that crustal extension at YM is anomalously large, possibly favoring renewed volcanism (Wernicke et al, Science, 1999), was contradicted by later work (Savage et al, JGR, 2000). Spatial-temporal models that predict future intrusion probabilities of >2E-7/yr may be overly conservative and unrealistic. Along with currently planned site characterization activities, realistic models could be developed by considering the non-detection of basaltic dikes in the potential repository footprint. (The views expressed are the authors' and do not reflect any final judgment or determination by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission regarding the matters addressed or the acceptability of a license application for a geologic repository at Yucca Mt.)

Gamma-Ray Emission from the Broad-Line Radio Galaxy 3C 111

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Robert C.; Kadler, M.; Tueller, Jack

2008-01-01

The broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111 has been suggested as the counterpart of the y-ray source 3EG J0416+3650. While 3C 111 meets most of the criteria for a high-probability identification, like a bright flat-spectrum radio core and a blazar-like broadband SED, in the Third EGRET Catalog, the large positional offset of about 1.5' put 3C 111 outside the 99% probability region for 3EG J0416+3650, making this association questionable. We present a re-analysis of all available archival data for 3C 111 from the EGRET archives, resulting in detection of variable hard-spectrum high-energy gamma-ray emission above 1000 MeV from a position close to the nominal position of 3C 111, in three separate viewing periods (VPs), at a 3sigma level in each. A second variable hard-spectrum source is present nearby. At >100 MeV, one variable soft-spectrum source seems to account for most of the EGRET-detected emission of 3EG J0416+3650. A follow-up Swift UVOT/XRT observation reveals one moderately bright X-ray source in the error box of 3EG J0416+3650, but because of the large EGRET position uncertainty, it is not certain that the X-ray and gamma-ray sources are associated. Another Swift observation near the second (unidentified) hard gamma-ray source detected no X-ray source nearby.

A scan statistic to extract causal gene clusters from case-control genome-wide rare CNV data.

PubMed

Nishiyama, Takeshi; Takahashi, Kunihiko; Tango, Toshiro; Pinto, Dalila; Scherer, Stephen W; Takami, Satoshi; Kishino, Hirohisa

2011-05-26

Several statistical tests have been developed for analyzing genome-wide association data by incorporating gene pathway information in terms of gene sets. Using these methods, hundreds of gene sets are typically tested, and the tested gene sets often overlap. This overlapping greatly increases the probability of generating false positives, and the results obtained are difficult to interpret, particularly when many gene sets show statistical significance. We propose a flexible statistical framework to circumvent these problems. Inspired by spatial scan statistics for detecting clustering of disease occurrence in the field of epidemiology, we developed a scan statistic to extract disease-associated gene clusters from a whole gene pathway. Extracting one or a few significant gene clusters from a global pathway limits the overall false positive probability, which results in increased statistical power, and facilitates the interpretation of test results. In the present study, we applied our method to genome-wide association data for rare copy-number variations, which have been strongly implicated in common diseases. Application of our method to a simulated dataset demonstrated the high accuracy of this method in detecting disease-associated gene clusters in a whole gene pathway. The scan statistic approach proposed here shows a high level of accuracy in detecting gene clusters in a whole gene pathway. This study has provided a sound statistical framework for analyzing genome-wide rare CNV data by incorporating topological information on the gene pathway.

Cigarette Smoking Promotes Infection of Cervical Cells by High-Risk Human Papillomaviruses, but not Subsequent E7 Oncoprotein Expression

PubMed Central

Vryzas, Dimos; Chatzaki, Ekaterini; Koch, Isabel; Soutschek, Erwin; Boecher, Oliver; Tsertanidou, Athena; Maglaveras, Nikolaos; Jansen-Duerr, Pidder; Agorastos, Theodoros

2018-01-01

Persistent cervical infection with high-risk human papillomaviruses (hrHPVs) is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the development of cervical cancer. Therefore, there are other co-factors facilitating the hrHPV carcinogenic process, one of which is smoking. To assess the effect of smoking on high-risk (hr) HPV DNA positivity and on the expression of HPV E7 oncoprotein, as a surrogate of persistent hrHPV infection, we used data from women recruited for the PIPAVIR project, which examined the role of E7 protein detection in cervical cancer screening. Women were tested for hrHPV DNA, using Multiplex Genotyping (MPG), and E7 protein, using a novel sandwich ELISA method, and gave information on their smoking habits. Among 1473 women, hrHPV prevalence was 19.1%. The odds ratio (OR) for hrHPV positivity of smokers compared to non-smokers was 1.785 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.365–2.332, p < 0.001). The ORs for E7 positivity, concerning hrHPV positive women, ranged from 0.720 to 1.360 depending on the E7 detection assay used, but this was not statistically significant. Smoking increases the probability of hrHPV infection, and smoking intensity is positively associated to this increase. Smoking is not related to an increased probability of E7 protein positivity for hrHPV positive women. PMID:29385075

Exploring X-Ray Binary Populations in Compact Group Galaxies With Chandra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzanavaris, P.; Hornschemeier, A. E..; Gallagher, S. C.; Lenkic, L.; Desjardins, T. D.; Walker, L. M.; Johnson, K. E.; Mulchaey, J. S.

2016-01-01

We obtain total galaxy X-ray luminosities, LX, originating from individually detected point sources in a sample of 47 galaxies in 15 compact groups of galaxies (CGs). For the great majority of our galaxies, we find that the detected point sources most likely are local to their associated galaxy, and are thus extragalactic X-ray binaries (XRBs) or nuclear active galactic nuclei (AGNs). For spiral and irregular galaxies, we find that, after accounting for AGNs and nuclear sources, most CG galaxies are either within the +/-1s scatter of the Mineo et al. LX-star formation rate (SFR) correlation or have higher LX than predicted by this correlation for their SFR. We discuss how these "excesses" may be due to low metallicities and high interaction levels. For elliptical and S0 galaxies, after accounting for AGNs and nuclear sources, most CG galaxies are consistent with the Boroson et al. LX-stellar mass correlation for low-mass XRBs, with larger scatter, likely due to residual effects such as AGN activity or hot gas. Assuming non-nuclear sources are low- or high-mass XRBs, we use appropriate XRB luminosity functions to estimate the probability that stochastic effects can lead to such extreme LX values. We find that, although stochastic effects do not in general appear to be important, for some galaxies there is a significant probability that high LX values can be observed due to strong XRB variability.

Performance analysis of a cascaded coding scheme with interleaved outer code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A cascaded coding scheme for a random error channel with a bit-error rate is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code C sub 1 is an (n sub 1, m sub 1l) binary linear block code which is designed for simultaneous error correction and detection. The outer code C sub 2 is a linear block code with symbols from the Galois field GF (2 sup l) which is designed for correcting both symbol errors and erasures, and is interleaved with a degree m sub 1. A procedure for computing the probability of a correct decoding is presented and an upper bound on the probability of a decoding error is derived. The bound provides much better results than the previous bound for a cascaded coding scheme with an interleaved outer code. Example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates are evaluated. Several schemes provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit-error rates say 10 to the -1 to 10 to the -2 power.

Towards a Cognitive Radar: Canada's Third-Generation High Frequency Surface Wave Radar (HFSWR) for Surveillance of the 200 Nautical Mile Exclusive Economic Zone.

PubMed

Ponsford, Anthony; McKerracher, Rick; Ding, Zhen; Moo, Peter; Yee, Derek

2017-07-07

Canada's third-generation HFSWR forms the foundation of a maritime domain awareness system that provides enforcement agencies with real-time persistent surveillance out to and beyond the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Cognitive sense-and-adapt technology and dynamic spectrum management ensures robust and resilient operation in the highly congested High Frequency (HF) band. Dynamic spectrum access enables the system to simultaneously operate on two frequencies on a non-interference and non-protected basis, without impacting other spectrum users. Sense-and-adapt technologies ensure that the system instantaneously switches to a new vacant channel on the detection of another user or unwanted jamming signal. Adaptive signal processing techniques mitigate against electrical noise, interference and clutter. Sense-and-adapt techniques applied at the detector and tracker stages maximize the probability of track initiation whilst minimizing the probability of false or otherwise erroneous track data.

Environmental contaminants in tissues, foods, and feces of California condors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiemeyer, Stanley N.; Krynitsky, A.J.; Wilbur, S.R.; Wilbur, Sanford R.; Jackson, Jerome A.

1983-01-01

Two wild California Condors contained moderate to high levels of DDE in their tissues. The levels found could be high enough to cause reproductive problems in adult condors, if the assumption is made that condors are as susceptible to DDE as many other species of birds of prey. Other organochlorines occurred at low levels and probably were not high enough to cause deleterious effects. Metal residues in tissues of one bird were generally low except for copper in liver and lead in bone. Normal background levels of these metals in cathartids are unknown, making interpretation of the results difficult. Organochlorine residues in biopsy samples from a captive condor were low and probably would not have an adverse effect on reproduction if the bird were used for captive breeding. Organochlorines were not detected in food items used in the supplemental feeding program, and mercury and lead residues in these items were generally low. Information is needed on current contaminant levels in natural condor prey throughout the condor range.

Towards a Cognitive Radar: Canada’s Third-Generation High Frequency Surface Wave Radar (HFSWR) for Surveillance of the 200 Nautical Mile Exclusive Economic Zone

PubMed Central

Ponsford, Anthony; McKerracher, Rick; Ding, Zhen; Moo, Peter; Yee, Derek

2017-01-01

Canada’s third-generation HFSWR forms the foundation of a maritime domain awareness system that provides enforcement agencies with real-time persistent surveillance out to and beyond the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Cognitive sense-and-adapt technology and dynamic spectrum management ensures robust and resilient operation in the highly congested High Frequency (HF) band. Dynamic spectrum access enables the system to simultaneously operate on two frequencies on a non-interference and non-protected basis, without impacting other spectrum users. Sense-and-adapt technologies ensure that the system instantaneously switches to a new vacant channel on the detection of another user or unwanted jamming signal. Adaptive signal processing techniques mitigate against electrical noise, interference and clutter. Sense-and-adapt techniques applied at the detector and tracker stages maximize the probability of track initiation whilst minimizing the probability of false or otherwise erroneous track data. PMID:28686198

From the field: Efficacy of detecting Chronic Wasting Disease via sampling hunter-killed white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.; Rosenberry, C.S.; Boyd, Robert C.

2004-01-01

Surveillance programs for Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in free-ranging cervids often use a standard of being able to detect 1% prevalence when determining minimum sample sizes. However, 1% prevalence may represent >10,000 infected animals in a population of 1 million, and most wildlife managers would prefer to detect the presence of CWD when far fewer infected animals exist. We wanted to detect the presence of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Pennsylvania when the disease was present in only 1 of 21 wildlife management units (WMUs) statewide. We used computer simulation to estimate the probability of detecting CWD based on a sampling design to detect the presence of CWD at 0.1% and 1.0% prevalence (23-76 and 225-762 infected deer, respectively) using tissue samples collected from hunter-killed deer. The probability of detection at 0.1% prevalence was <30% with sample sizes of ???6,000 deer, and the probability of detection at 1.0% prevalence was 46-72% with statewide sample sizes of 2,000-6,000 deer. We believe that testing of hunter-killed deer is an essential part of any surveillance program for CWD, but our results demonstrated the importance of a multifaceted surveillance approach for CWD detection rather than sole reliance on testing hunter-killed deer.

Virtual-Lattice Based Intrusion Detection Algorithm over Actuator-Assisted Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Yan, Jing; Li, Xiaolei; Luo, Xiaoyuan; Guan, Xinping

2017-01-01

Due to the lack of a physical line of defense, intrusion detection becomes one of the key issues in applications of underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs), especially when the confidentiality has prime importance. However, the resource-constrained property of UWSNs such as sparse deployment and energy constraint makes intrusion detection a challenging issue. This paper considers a virtual-lattice-based approach to the intrusion detection problem in UWSNs. Different from most existing works, the UWSNs consist of two kinds of nodes, i.e., sensor nodes (SNs), which cannot move autonomously, and actuator nodes (ANs), which can move autonomously according to the performance requirement. With the cooperation of SNs and ANs, the intruder detection probability is defined. Then, a virtual lattice-based monitor (VLM) algorithm is proposed to detect the intruder. In order to reduce the redundancy of communication links and improve detection probability, an optimal and coordinative lattice-based monitor patrolling (OCLMP) algorithm is further provided for UWSNs, wherein an equal price search strategy is given for ANs to find the shortest patrolling path. Under VLM and OCLMP algorithms, the detection probabilities are calculated, while the topology connectivity can be guaranteed. Finally, simulation results are presented to show that the proposed method in this paper can improve the detection accuracy and save the energy consumption compared with the conventional methods. PMID:28531127

Using Detection Dogs to Conduct Simultaneous Surveys of Northern Spotted (Strix occidentalis caurina) and Barred Owls (Strix varia)

PubMed Central

Wasser, Samuel K.; Hayward, Lisa S.; Hartman, Jennifer; Booth, Rebecca K.; Broms, Kristin; Berg, Jodi; Seely, Elizabeth; Lewis, Lyle; Smith, Heath

2012-01-01

State and federal actions to conserve northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat are largely initiated by establishing habitat occupancy. Northern spotted owl occupancy is typically assessed by eliciting their response to simulated conspecific vocalizations. However, proximity of barred owls (Strix varia)–a significant threat to northern spotted owls–can suppress northern spotted owl responsiveness to vocalization surveys and hence their probability of detection. We developed a survey method to simultaneously detect both species that does not require vocalization. Detection dogs (Canis familiaris) located owl pellets accumulated under roost sites, within search areas selected using habitat association maps. We compared success of detection dog surveys to vocalization surveys slightly modified from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Draft 2010 Survey Protocol. Seventeen 2 km ×2 km polygons were each surveyed multiple times in an area where northern spotted owls were known to nest prior to 1997 and barred owl density was thought to be low. Mitochondrial DNA was used to confirm species from pellets detected by dogs. Spotted owl and barred owl detection probabilities were significantly higher for dog than vocalization surveys. For spotted owls, this difference increased with number of site visits. Cumulative detection probabilities of northern spotted owls were 29% after session 1, 62% after session 2, and 87% after session 3 for dog surveys, compared to 25% after session 1, increasing to 59% by session 6 for vocalization surveys. Mean detection probability for barred owls was 20.1% for dog surveys and 7.3% for vocal surveys. Results suggest that detection dog surveys can complement vocalization surveys by providing a reliable method for establishing occupancy of both northern spotted and barred owl without requiring owl vocalization. This helps meet objectives of Recovery Actions 24 and 25 of the Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl. PMID:22916175

Using detection dogs to conduct simultaneous surveys of northern spotted (Strix occidentalis caurina) and barred owls (Strix varia).

PubMed

Wasser, Samuel K; Hayward, Lisa S; Hartman, Jennifer; Booth, Rebecca K; Broms, Kristin; Berg, Jodi; Seely, Elizabeth; Lewis, Lyle; Smith, Heath

2012-01-01

State and federal actions to conserve northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat are largely initiated by establishing habitat occupancy. Northern spotted owl occupancy is typically assessed by eliciting their response to simulated conspecific vocalizations. However, proximity of barred owls (Strix varia)-a significant threat to northern spotted owls-can suppress northern spotted owl responsiveness to vocalization surveys and hence their probability of detection. We developed a survey method to simultaneously detect both species that does not require vocalization. Detection dogs (Canis familiaris) located owl pellets accumulated under roost sites, within search areas selected using habitat association maps. We compared success of detection dog surveys to vocalization surveys slightly modified from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Draft 2010 Survey Protocol. Seventeen 2 km × 2 km polygons were each surveyed multiple times in an area where northern spotted owls were known to nest prior to 1997 and barred owl density was thought to be low. Mitochondrial DNA was used to confirm species from pellets detected by dogs. Spotted owl and barred owl detection probabilities were significantly higher for dog than vocalization surveys. For spotted owls, this difference increased with number of site visits. Cumulative detection probabilities of northern spotted owls were 29% after session 1, 62% after session 2, and 87% after session 3 for dog surveys, compared to 25% after session 1, increasing to 59% by session 6 for vocalization surveys. Mean detection probability for barred owls was 20.1% for dog surveys and 7.3% for vocal surveys. Results suggest that detection dog surveys can complement vocalization surveys by providing a reliable method for establishing occupancy of both northern spotted and barred owl without requiring owl vocalization. This helps meet objectives of Recovery Actions 24 and 25 of the Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl.

Passive imaging based multi-cue hazard detection spacecraft safe landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huertas, Andres; Cheng, Yang; Madison, Richard

2006-01-01

Accurate assessment of potentially damaging ground hazards during the spacecraft EDL (Entry, Descent and Landing) phase is crucial to insure a high probability of safe landing. A lander that encounters a large rock, falls off a cliff, or tips over on a steep slope can sustain mission ending damage. Guided entry is expected to shrink landing ellipses from 100-300 km to -10 km radius for the second generation landers as early as 2009. Regardless of size and location, however, landing ellipses will almost always contain hazards such as craters, discontinuities, steep slopes, and large rocks. It is estimated that an MSL (Mars Science Laboratory)-sized lander should detect and avoid 16- 150m diameter craters, vertical drops similar to the edges of 16m or 3.75m diameter crater, for high and low altitude HAD (Hazard Detection and Avoidance) respectively. It should also be able to detect slopes 20' or steeper, and rocks 0.75m or taller. In this paper we will present a passive imaging based, multi-cue hazard detection and avoidance (HDA) system suitable for Martian and other lander missions. This is the first passively imaged HDA system that seamlessly integrates multiple algorithm-crater detection, slope estimation, rock detection and texture analysis, and multicues- crater morphology, rock distribution, to detect these hazards in real time.

Explosive hazard detection using MIMO forward-looking ground penetrating radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Darren; Ho, K. C.; Stone, Kevin; Keller, James M.; Popescu, Mihail; Anderson, Derek T.; Luke, Robert H.; Burns, Brian

2015-05-01

This paper proposes a machine learning algorithm for subsurface object detection on multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) forward-looking ground-penetrating radar (FLGPR). By detecting hazards using FLGPR, standoff distances of up to tens of meters can be acquired, but this is at the degradation of performance due to high false alarm rates. The proposed system utilizes an anomaly detection prescreener to identify potential object locations. Alarm locations have multiple one-dimensional (ML) spectral features, two-dimensional (2D) spectral features, and log-Gabor statistic features extracted. The ability of these features to reduce the number of false alarms and increase the probability of detection is evaluated for both co-polarizations present in the Akela MIMO array. Classification is performed by a Support Vector Machine (SVM) with lane-based cross-validation for training and testing. Class imbalance and optimized SVM kernel parameters are considered during classifier training.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

Quantification and molecular characterization of Salmonella isolated from food samples involved in salmonellosis outbreaks in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

PubMed Central

Mürmann, Lisandra; dos Santos, Maria Cecília; Longaray, Solange Mendes; Both, Jane Mari Corrêa; Cardoso, Marisa

2008-01-01

Data concerning the prevalence and populations of Salmonella in foods implicated in outbreaks may be important to the development of quantitative microbial risk assessments of individual food products. In this sense, the objective of the present study was to assess the amount of Salmonella sp. in different foods implicated in foodborne outbreaks in Rio Grande do Sul occurred in 2005 and to characterize the isolated strains using phenotypic and genotypic methods. Nineteen food samples involved in ten foodborne outbreaks occurred in 2005, and positive on Salmonella isolation at the Central Laboratory of the Health Department of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, were included in this study. Food samples were submitted to estimation of Salmonella using the Most Probable Number (MPN) technique. Moreover, one confirmed Salmonella colony of each food sample was serotyped, characterized by its XbaI-macrorestriction profile, and submitted to antimicrobial resistance testing. Foods containing eggs, mayonnaise or chicken were contaminated with Salmonella in eight outbreaks. Higher counts (>107 MPN.g-1) of Salmonella were detected mostly in foods containing mayonnaise. The isolation of Salmonella from multiple food items in five outbreaks probably resulted from the cross-contamination, and the high Salmonella counts detected in almost all analyzed samples probably resulted from storing in inadequate temperature. All strains were identified as S. Enteritidis, and presented a unique macrorestriction profile, demonstrating the predominance of one clonal group in foods involved in the salmonellosis outbreaks. A low frequency of antimicrobial resistant S. Enteritidis strains was observed and nalidixic acid was the only resistance marker detected. PMID:24031261

Unconventional signal detection techniques with Gaussian probability mixtures adaptation in non-AWGN channels: full resolution receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabdarov, Shamil M.; Nadeev, Adel F.; Chickrin, Dmitry E.; Faizullin, Rashid R.

2011-04-01

In this paper we discuss unconventional detection technique also known as «full resolution receiver». This receiver uses Gaussian probability mixtures for interference structure adaptation. Full resolution receiver is alternative to conventional matched filter receivers in the case of non-Gaussian interferences. For the DS-CDMA forward channel with presence of complex interferences sufficient performance increasing was shown.

Directed Design of Experiments (DOE) for Determining Probability of Detection (POD) Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Generazio, Edward R.

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews some of the problems that are encountered by designers of Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) have in determining the probability of detection. According to the author "[the] NDE community should not blindly accept statistical results due to lack of knowledge." This is an attempt to bridge the gap between people doing NDE, and statisticians.

The Assessment of Recognition Memory Using the Remember/Know Procedure in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Probable Alzheimer's Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hudon, Carol; Belleville, Sylvie; Gauthier, Serge

2009-01-01

This study used the Remember/Know (R/K) procedure combined with signal detection analyses to assess recognition memory in 20 elders with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), 10 patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) as well as matched healthy older adults. Signal detection analyses first indicated that aMCI and control participants…

Comparison of methods for estimating density of forest songbirds from point counts

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R. Thompson; J. Wesley. Bailey

2011-01-01

New analytical methods have been promoted for estimating the probability of detection and density of birds from count data but few studies have compared these methods using real data. We compared estimates of detection probability and density from distance and time-removal models and survey protocols based on 5- or 10-min counts and outer radii of 50 or 100 m. We...

Statistical evaluation of vibration analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milner, G. Martin; Miller, Patrice S.

1987-01-01

An evaluation methodology is presented for a selection of candidate vibration analysis techniques applicable to machinery representative of the environmental control and life support system of advanced spacecraft; illustrative results are given. Attention is given to the statistical analysis of small sample experiments, the quantification of detection performance for diverse techniques through the computation of probability of detection versus probability of false alarm, and the quantification of diagnostic performance.

Assessing bat detectability and occupancy with multiple automated echolocation detectors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P.M.; Miles, A.C.; Todd, C.M.; Bonaccorso, F.J.; Weller, T.J.

2008-01-01

Occupancy analysis and its ability to account for differential detection probabilities is important for studies in which detecting echolocation calls is used as a measure of bat occurrence and activity. We examined the feasibility of remotely acquiring bat encounter histories to estimate detection probability and occupancy. We used echolocation detectors coupled to digital recorders operating at a series of proximate sites on consecutive nights in 2 trial surveys for the Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus). Our results confirmed that the technique is readily amenable for use in occupancy analysis. We also conducted a simulation exercise to assess the effects of sampling effort on parameter estimation. The results indicated that the precision and bias of parameter estimation were often more influenced by the number of sites sampled than number of visits. Acceptable accuracy often was not attained until at least 15 sites or 15 visits were used to estimate detection probability and occupancy. The method has significant potential for use in monitoring trends in bat activity and in comparative studies of habitat use. ?? 2008 American Society of Mammalogists.

Scintillation Counters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Zane W.

Scintillators find wide use in radiation detection as the detecting medium for gamma/X-rays, and charged and neutral particles. Since the first notice in 1895 by Roentgen of the production of light by X-rays on a barium platinocyanide screen, and Thomas Edison's work over the following 2 years resulting in the discovery of calcium tungstate as a superior fluoroscopy screen, much research and experimentation have been undertaken to discover and elucidate the properties of new scintillators. Scintillators with high density and high atomic number are prized for the detection of gamma rays above 1 MeV; lower atomic number, lower-density materials find use for detecting beta particles and heavy charged particles; hydrogenous scintillators find use in fast-neutron detection; and boron-, lithium-, and gadolinium-containing scintillators are used for slow-neutron detection. This chapter provides the practitioner with an overview of the general characteristics of scintillators, including the variation of probability of interaction with density and atomic number, the characteristics of the light pulse, a list and characteristics of commonly available scintillators and their approximate cost, and recommendations regarding the choice of material for a few specific applications. This chapter does not pretend to present an exhaustive list of scintillators and applications.

Probabilistic model for quick detection of dissimilar binary images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustafa, Adnan A. Y.

2015-09-01

We present a quick method to detect dissimilar binary images. The method is based on a "probabilistic matching model" for image matching. The matching model is used to predict the probability of occurrence of distinct-dissimilar image pairs (completely different images) when matching one image to another. Based on this model, distinct-dissimilar images can be detected by matching only a few points between two images with high confidence, namely 11 points for a 99.9% successful detection rate. For image pairs that are dissimilar but not distinct-dissimilar, more points need to be mapped. The number of points required to attain a certain successful detection rate or confidence depends on the amount of similarity between the compared images. As this similarity increases, more points are required. For example, images that differ by 1% can be detected by mapping fewer than 70 points on average. More importantly, the model is image size invariant; so, images of any sizes will produce high confidence levels with a limited number of matched points. As a result, this method does not suffer from the image size handicap that impedes current methods. We report on extensive tests conducted on real images of different sizes.

Metacognitive monitoring and control in visual change detection: Implications for situation awareness and cognitive control

PubMed Central

McAnally, Ken I.; Morris, Adam P.; Best, Christopher

2017-01-01

Metacognitive monitoring and control of situation awareness (SA) are important for a range of safety-critical roles (e.g., air traffic control, military command and control). We examined the factors affecting these processes using a visual change detection task that included representative tactical displays. SA was assessed by asking novice observers to detect changes to a tactical display. Metacognitive monitoring was assessed by asking observers to estimate the probability that they would correctly detect a change, either after study of the display and before the change (judgement of learning; JOL) or after the change and detection response (judgement of performance; JOP). In Experiment 1, observers failed to detect some changes to the display, indicating imperfect SA, but JOPs were reasonably well calibrated to objective performance. Experiment 2 examined JOLs and JOPs in two task contexts: with study-time limits imposed by the task or with self-pacing to meet specified performance targets. JOPs were well calibrated in both conditions as were JOLs for high performance targets. In summary, observers had limited SA, but good insight about their performance and learning for high performance targets and allocated study time appropriately. PMID:28915244

Detection and classification of underwater targets by echolocating dolphins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Au, Whitlow

2003-10-01

Many experiments have been performed with echolocating dolphins to determine their target detection and discrimination capabilities. Target detection experiments have been performed in a naturally noisy environment, with masking noise and with both phantom echoes and masking noise, and in reverberation. The echo energy to rms noise spectral density for the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) at the 75% correct response threshold is approximately 7.5 dB whereas for the beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas) the threshold is approximately 1 dB. The dolphin's detection threshold in reverberation is approximately 2.5 dB vs 2 dB for the beluga. The difference in performance between species can probably be ascribed to differences in how both species perceived the task. The bottlenose dolphin may be performing a combination detection/discrimination task whereas the beluga may be performing a simple detection task. Echolocating dolphins also have the capability to make fine discriminate of target properties such as wall thickness difference of water-filled cylinders and material differences in metallic plates. The high resolution property of the animal's echolocation signals and the high dynamic range of its auditory system are important factors in their outstanding discrimination capabilities.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination from greenhouses in Albenga plain (Liguria, Italy) using lysimeters.

PubMed

Paladino, Ombretta; Seyedsalehi, Mahdi; Massabò, Marco

2018-09-01

The use of fertilizers in greenhouse-grown crops can pose a threat to groundwater quality and, consequently, to human beings and subterranean ecosystem, where intensive farming produces pollutants leaching. Albenga plain (Liguria, Italy) is an alluvial area of about 45km 2 historically devoted to farming. Recently the crops have evolved to greenhouses horticulture and floriculture production. In the area high levels of nitrates in groundwater have been detected. Lysimeters with three types of reconstituted soils (loamy sand, sandy clay loam and sandy loam) collected from different areas of Albenga plain were used in this study to evaluate the leaching loss of nitrate (NO 3 - ) over a period of 12weeks. Leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) was selected as a representative green-grown crop. Each of the soil samples was treated with a slow release fertilizer, simulating the real fertilizing strategy of the tillage. In order to estimate the potential risk for aquifers as well as for organisms exposed via pore water, nitrate concentrations in groundwater were evaluated by applying a simplified attenuation model to the experimental data. Results were refined and extended from comparison of single effects and exposure values (Tier I level) up to the evaluation of probabilistic distributions of exposure and related effects (Tier II, III IV levels). HHRA suggested HI >1 and about 20% probability of exceeding RfD for all the greenhouses, regardless of the soil. ERA suggested HQ>100 for all the greenhouses; 93% probability of PNEC exceedance for greenhouses containing sand clay loam. The probability of exceeding LC50 for 5% of the species was about 40% and the probability corresponding to DBQ of DEC/EC50>0.001 was >90% for all the greenhouses. The significantly high risk, related to the detected nitrate leaching loss, can be attributed to excessive and inappropriate fertigation strategies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Application of multivariate Gaussian detection theory to known non-Gaussian probability density functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Craig R.; Thelen, Brian J.; Kenton, Arthur C.

1995-06-01

A statistical parametric multispectral sensor performance model was developed by ERIM to support mine field detection studies, multispectral sensor design/performance trade-off studies, and target detection algorithm development. The model assumes target detection algorithms and their performance models which are based on data assumed to obey multivariate Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs). The applicability of these algorithms and performance models can be generalized to data having non-Gaussian PDFs through the use of transforms which convert non-Gaussian data to Gaussian (or near-Gaussian) data. An example of one such transform is the Box-Cox power law transform. In practice, such a transform can be applied to non-Gaussian data prior to the introduction of a detection algorithm that is formally based on the assumption of multivariate Gaussian data. This paper presents an extension of these techniques to the case where the joint multivariate probability density function of the non-Gaussian input data is known, and where the joint estimate of the multivariate Gaussian statistics, under the Box-Cox transform, is desired. The jointly estimated multivariate Gaussian statistics can then be used to predict the performance of a target detection algorithm which has an associated Gaussian performance model.

Detection of influenza-like illness aberrations by directly monitoring Pearson residuals of fitted negative binomial regression models.

PubMed

Chan, Ta-Chien; Teng, Yung-Chu; Hwang, Jing-Shiang

2015-02-21

Emerging novel influenza outbreaks have increasingly been a threat to the public and a major concern of public health departments. Real-time data in seamless surveillance systems such as health insurance claims data for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) are ready for analysis, making it highly desirable to develop practical techniques to analyze such readymade data for outbreak detection so that the public can receive timely influenza epidemic warnings. This study proposes a simple and effective approach to analyze area-based health insurance claims data including outpatient and emergency department (ED) visits for early detection of any aberrations of ILI. The health insurance claims data during 2004-2009 from a national health insurance research database were used for developing early detection methods. The proposed approach fitted the daily new ILI visits and monitored the Pearson residuals directly for aberration detection. First, negative binomial regression was used for both outpatient and ED visits to adjust for potentially influential factors such as holidays, weekends, seasons, temporal dependence and temperature. Second, if the Pearson residuals exceeded 1.96, aberration signals were issued. The empirical validation of the model was done in 2008 and 2009. In addition, we designed a simulation study to compare the time of outbreak detection, non-detection probability and false alarm rate between the proposed method and modified CUSUM. The model successfully detected the aberrations of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza virus in northern, central and southern Taiwan. The proposed approach was more sensitive in identifying aberrations in ED visits than those in outpatient visits. Simulation studies demonstrated that the proposed approach could detect the aberrations earlier, and with lower non-detection probability and mean false alarm rate in detecting aberrations compared to modified CUSUM methods. The proposed simple approach was able to filter out temporal trends, adjust for temperature, and issue warning signals for the first wave of the influenza epidemic in a timely and accurate manner.

A Probabilistic Approach to Network Event Formation from Pre-Processed Waveform Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohl, B. C.; Given, J.

2017-12-01

The current state of the art for seismic event detection still largely depends on signal detection at individual sensor stations, including picking accurate arrivals times and correctly identifying phases, and relying on fusion algorithms to associate individual signal detections to form event hypotheses. But increasing computational capability has enabled progress toward the objective of fully utilizing body-wave recordings in an integrated manner to detect events without the necessity of previously recorded ground truth events. In 2011-2012 Leidos (then SAIC) operated a seismic network to monitor activity associated with geothermal field operations in western Nevada. We developed a new association approach for detecting and quantifying events by probabilistically combining pre-processed waveform data to deal with noisy data and clutter at local distance ranges. The ProbDet algorithm maps continuous waveform data into continuous conditional probability traces using a source model (e.g. Brune earthquake or Mueller-Murphy explosion) to map frequency content and an attenuation model to map amplitudes. Event detection and classification is accomplished by combining the conditional probabilities from the entire network using a Bayesian formulation. This approach was successful in producing a high-Pd, low-Pfa automated bulletin for a local network and preliminary tests with regional and teleseismic data show that it has promise for global seismic and nuclear monitoring applications. The approach highlights several features that we believe are essential to achieving low-threshold automated event detection: Minimizes the utilization of individual seismic phase detections - in traditional techniques, errors in signal detection, timing, feature measurement and initial phase ID compound and propagate into errors in event formation, Has a formalized framework that utilizes information from non-detecting stations, Has a formalized framework that utilizes source information, in particular the spectral characteristics of events of interest, Is entirely model-based, i.e. does not rely on a priori's - particularly important for nuclear monitoring, Does not rely on individualized signal detection thresholds - it's the network solution that matters.

Effects of sampling strategy, detection probability, and independence of counts on the use of point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, G.W.; Ralph, C. John; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1995-01-01

Many factors affect the use of point counts for monitoring bird populations, including sampling strategies, variation in detection rates, and independence of sample points. The most commonly used sampling plans are stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and systematic sampling. Each of these might be most useful for different objectives or field situations. Variation in detection probabilities and lack of independence among sample points can bias estimates and measures of precision. All of these factors should be con-sidered when using point count methods.

NDE of structural ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klima, S. J.; Vary, A.

1986-01-01

Radiographic, ultrasonic, scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM), and thermo-acoustic microscopy techniques were used to characterize silicon nitride and silicon carbide modulus-of-rupture test specimens in various stages of fabrication. Conventional and microfocus X-ray techniques were found capable of detecting minute high density inclusions in as-received powders, green compacts, and fully densified specimens. Significant density gradients in sintered bars were observed by radiography, ultrasonic velocity, and SLAM. Ultrasonic attenuation was found sensitive to microstructural variations due to grain and void morphology and distribution. SLAM was also capable of detecting voids, inclusions and cracks in finished test bars. Consideration is given to the potential for applying thermo-acoustic microscopy techniques to green and densified ceramics. The detection probability statistics and some limitations of radiography and SLAM also are discussed.

Digital video steganalysis exploiting collusion sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budhia, Udit; Kundur, Deepa

2004-09-01

In this paper we present an effective steganalyis technique for digital video sequences based on the collusion attack. Steganalysis is the process of detecting with a high probability and low complexity the presence of covert data in multimedia. Existing algorithms for steganalysis target detecting covert information in still images. When applied directly to video sequences these approaches are suboptimal. In this paper, we present a method that overcomes this limitation by using redundant information present in the temporal domain to detect covert messages in the form of Gaussian watermarks. Our gains are achieved by exploiting the collusion attack that has recently been studied in the field of digital video watermarking, and more sophisticated pattern recognition tools. Applications of our scheme include cybersecurity and cyberforensics.

Dim target detection method based on salient graph fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Ruo-lan; Shen, Yi-yan; Jiang, Jun

2018-02-01

Dim target detection is one key problem in digital image processing field. With development of multi-spectrum imaging sensor, it becomes a trend to improve the performance of dim target detection by fusing the information from different spectral images. In this paper, one dim target detection method based on salient graph fusion was proposed. In the method, Gabor filter with multi-direction and contrast filter with multi-scale were combined to construct salient graph from digital image. And then, the maximum salience fusion strategy was designed to fuse the salient graph from different spectral images. Top-hat filter was used to detect dim target from the fusion salient graph. Experimental results show that proposal method improved the probability of target detection and reduced the probability of false alarm on clutter background images.

Analysis of the impact of error detection on computer performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, K. C.; Lee, Y. H.

1983-01-01

Conventionally, reliability analyses either assume that a fault/error is detected immediately following its occurrence, or neglect damages caused by latent errors. Though unrealistic, this assumption was imposed in order to avoid the difficulty of determining the respective probabilities that a fault induces an error and the error is then detected in a random amount of time after its occurrence. As a remedy for this problem a model is proposed to analyze the impact of error detection on computer performance under moderate assumptions. Error latency, the time interval between occurrence and the moment of detection, is used to measure the effectiveness of a detection mechanism. This model is used to: (1) predict the probability of producing an unreliable result, and (2) estimate the loss of computation due to fault and/or error.

Electromagnetic transients as triggers in searches for gravitational waves from compact binary mergers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Luke Zoltan; Mandel, Ilya; Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico

2013-06-01

The detection of an electromagnetic transient which may originate from a binary neutron star merger can increase the probability that a given segment of data from the LIGO-Virgo ground-based gravitational-wave detector network contains a signal from a binary coalescence. Additional information contained in the electromagnetic signal, such as the sky location or distance to the source, can help rule out false alarms and thus lower the necessary threshold for a detection. Here, we develop a framework for determining how much sensitivity is added to a gravitational-wave search by triggering on an electromagnetic transient. We apply this framework to a variety of relevant electromagnetic transients, from short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) to signatures of r-process heating to optical and radio orphan afterglows. We compute the expected rates of multimessenger observations in the advanced detector era and find that searches triggered on short GRBs—with current high-energy instruments, such as Fermi—and nucleosynthetic “kilonovae”—with future optical surveys, like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope—can boost the number of multimessenger detections by 15% and 40%, respectively, for a binary neutron star progenitor model. Short GRB triggers offer precise merger timing but suffer from detection rates decreased by beaming and the high a priori probability that the source is outside the LIGO-Virgo sensitive volume. Isotropic kilonovae, on the other hand, could be commonly observed within the LIGO-Virgo sensitive volume with an instrument roughly an order of magnitude more sensitive than current optical surveys. We propose that the most productive strategy for making multimessenger gravitational-wave observations is using triggers from future deep, optical all-sky surveys, with characteristics comparable to the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, which could make as many as ten such coincident observations a year.

Effects of surrounding land use and water depth on seagrass dynamics relative to a catastrophic algal bloom.

PubMed

Breininger, David R; Breininger, Robert D; Hall, Carlton R

2017-02-01

Seagrasses are the foundation of many coastal ecosystems and are in global decline because of anthropogenic impacts. For the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.), we developed competing multistate statistical models to quantify how environmental factors (surrounding land use, water depth, and time [year]) influenced the variability of seagrass state dynamics from 2003 to 2014 while accounting for time-specific detection probabilities that quantified our ability to determine seagrass state at particular locations and times. We classified seagrass states (presence or absence) at 764 points with geographic information system maps for years when seagrass maps were available and with aerial photographs when seagrass maps were not available. We used 4 categories (all conservation, mostly conservation, mostly urban, urban) to describe surrounding land use within sections of lagoonal waters, usually demarcated by land features that constricted these waters. The best models predicted that surrounding land use, depth, and year would affect transition and detection probabilities. Sections of the lagoon bordered by urban areas had the least stable seagrass beds and lowest detection probabilities, especially after a catastrophic seagrass die-off linked to an algal bloom. Sections of the lagoon bordered by conservation lands had the most stable seagrass beds, which supports watershed conservation efforts. Our results show that a multistate approach can empirically estimate state-transition probabilities as functions of environmental factors while accounting for state-dependent differences in seagrass detection probabilities as part of the overall statistical inference procedure. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Comparing rapid methods for detecting Listeria in seafood and environmental samples using the most probably number (MPN) technique.

PubMed

Cruz, Cristina D; Win, Jessicah K; Chantarachoti, Jiraporn; Mutukumira, Anthony N; Fletcher, Graham C

2012-02-15

The standard Bacteriological Analytical Manual (BAM) protocol for detecting Listeria in food and on environmental surfaces takes about 96 h. Some studies indicate that rapid methods, which produce results within 48 h, may be as sensitive and accurate as the culture protocol. As they only give presence/absence results, it can be difficult to compare the accuracy of results generated. We used the Most Probable Number (MPN) technique to evaluate the performance and detection limits of six rapid kits for detecting Listeria in seafood and on an environmental surface compared with the standard protocol. Three seafood products and an environmental surface were inoculated with similar known cell concentrations of Listeria and analyzed according to the manufacturers' instructions. The MPN was estimated using the MPN-BAM spreadsheet. For the seafood products no differences were observed among the rapid kits and efficiency was similar to the BAM method. On the environmental surface the BAM protocol had a higher recovery rate (sensitivity) than any of the rapid kits tested. Clearview™, Reveal®, TECRA® and VIDAS® LDUO detected the cells but only at high concentrations (>10(2) CFU/10 cm(2)). Two kits (VIP™ and Petrifilm™) failed to detect 10(4) CFU/10 cm(2). The MPN method was a useful tool for comparing the results generated by these presence/absence test kits. There remains a need to develop a rapid and sensitive method for detecting Listeria in environmental samples that performs as well as the BAM protocol, since none of the rapid tests used in this study achieved a satisfactory result. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ARE WE THERE YET? TIME TO DETECTION OF NANOHERTZ GRAVITATIONAL WAVES BASED ON PULSAR-TIMING ARRAY LIMITS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, S. R.; Vallisneri, M.; Ellis, J. A.

2016-03-01

Decade-long timing observations of arrays of millisecond pulsars have placed highly constraining upper limits on the amplitude of the nanohertz gravitational-wave stochastic signal from the mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (∼10{sup −15} strain at f = 1 yr{sup −1}). These limits suggest that binary merger rates have been overestimated, or that environmental influences from nuclear gas or stars accelerate orbital decay, reducing the gravitational-wave signal at the lowest, most sensitive frequencies. This prompts the question whether nanohertz gravitational waves (GWs) are likely to be detected in the near future. In this Letter, we answer this question quantitatively using simple statistical estimates,more » deriving the range of true signal amplitudes that are compatible with current upper limits, and computing expected detection probabilities as a function of observation time. We conclude that small arrays consisting of the pulsars with the least timing noise, which yield the tightest upper limits, have discouraging prospects of making a detection in the next two decades. By contrast, we find large arrays are crucial to detection because the quadrupolar spatial correlations induced by GWs can be well sampled by many pulsar pairs. Indeed, timing programs that monitor a large and expanding set of pulsars have an ∼80% probability of detecting GWs within the next 10 years, under assumptions on merger rates and environmental influences ranging from optimistic to conservative. Even in the extreme case where 90% of binaries stall before merger and environmental coupling effects diminish low-frequency gravitational-wave power, detection is delayed by at most a few years.« less

Development of hybrid fog detection algorithm (FDA) using satellite and ground observation data for nighttime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, So-Hyeong; Han, Ji-Hae; Suh, Myoung-Seok

2017-04-01

In this study, we developed a hybrid fog detection algorithm (FDA) using AHI/Himawari-8 satellite and ground observation data for nighttime. In order to detect fog at nighttime, Dual Channel Difference (DCD) method based on the emissivity difference between SWIR and IR1 is most widely used. DCD is good at discriminating fog from other things (middle/high clouds, clear sea and land). However, it is difficult to distinguish fog from low clouds. In order to separate the low clouds from the pixels that satisfy the thresholds of fog in the DCD test, we conducted supplementary tests such as normalized local standard derivation (NLSD) of BT11 and the difference of fog top temperature (BT11) and air temperature (Ta) from NWP data (SST from OSTIA data). These tests are based on the larger homogeneity of fog top than low cloud tops and the similarity of fog top temperature and Ta (SST). Threshold values for the three tests were optimized through ROC analysis for the selected fog cases. In addition, considering the spatial continuity of fog, post-processing was performed to detect the missed pixels, in particular, at edge of fog or sub-pixel size fog. The final fog detection results are presented by fog probability (0 100 %). Validation was conducted by comparing fog detection probability with the ground observed visibility data from KMA. The validation results showed that POD and FAR are ranged from 0.70 0.94 and 0.45 0.72, respectively. The quantitative validation and visual inspection indicate that current FDA has a tendency to over-detect the fog. So, more works which reducing the FAR is needed. In the future, we will also validate sea fog using CALIPSO data.

Surveying Europe's Only Cave-Dwelling Chordate Species (Proteus anguinus) Using Environmental DNA.

PubMed

Vörös, Judit; Márton, Orsolya; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Gál, Júlia Tünde; Jelić, Dušan

2017-01-01

In surveillance of subterranean fauna, especially in the case of rare or elusive aquatic species, traditional techniques used for epigean species are often not feasible. We developed a non-invasive survey method based on environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect the presence of the red-listed cave-dwelling amphibian, Proteus anguinus, in the caves of the Dinaric Karst. We tested the method in fifteen caves in Croatia, from which the species was previously recorded or expected to occur. We successfully confirmed the presence of P. anguinus from ten caves and detected the species for the first time in five others. Using a hierarchical occupancy model we compared the availability and detection probability of eDNA of two water sampling methods, filtration and precipitation. The statistical analysis showed that both availability and detection probability depended on the method and estimates for both probabilities were higher using filter samples than for precipitation samples. Combining reliable field and laboratory methods with robust statistical modeling will give the best estimates of species occurrence.

A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Yumin; Lum, Kai-Yew; Wang Qingguo

In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus,more » the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.« less