Self-reported craft expertise predicts maintenance of spatial ability in old age.

PubMed

Bailey, Shannon K T; Sims, Valerie K

2014-05-01

Three hundred and three female participants between the ages of 18 and 77 reported their experience in crafting (sewing, knitting, and crocheting) and completed a measure of spatial ability: The Paper Folding Test. To investigate the connection between spatial ability performance, age, and craft expertise, an ANOVA was conducted for the Paper Folding Test using two levels of crafting expertise (High and Low) and three age categories (younger adults: 18-39, middle-aged adults: 40-59, and older adults: 60-77). Performance on the spatial ability test declined with age as predicted from previous literature. However, there was a significant Age by Expertise interaction. No difference was found between High and Low craft expertise groups in younger adults (18-39), but there was a growing difference between expertise groups in middle-aged adults (40-59) and older adults (60-77). The results suggest that continued hands-on experience in spatial domains is a predictor of maintenance of spatial ability across the life span.

Using a process-based model (3-PG) to predict and map hybrid poplar biomass productivity in Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA

Treesearch

William L. Headlee; Ronald S. Jr. Zalesny; Deahn M. Donner; Richard B. Hall

2013-01-01

Hybrid poplars have demonstrated high biomass productivity in the North Central USA as short rotation woody crops (SRWCs). However, our ability to quantitatively predict productivity for sites that are not currently in SRWCs is limited. As a result, stakeholders are also limited in their ability to evaluate different areas within the region as potential supply sheds...

Evaluation of a numerical model's ability to predict bed load transport observed in braided river experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javernick, Luke; Redolfi, Marco; Bertoldi, Walter

2018-05-01

New data collection techniques offer numerical modelers the ability to gather and utilize high quality data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution. Such data sets are currently needed for calibration, verification, and to fuel future model development, particularly morphological simulations. This study explores the use of high quality spatial and temporal data sets of observed bed load transport in braided river flume experiments to evaluate the ability of a two-dimensional model, Delft3D, to predict bed load transport. This study uses a fixed bed model configuration and examines the model's shear stress calculations, which are the foundation to predict the sediment fluxes necessary for morphological simulations. The evaluation is conducted for three flow rates, and model setup used highly accurate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) topography and discharge boundary conditions. The model was hydraulically calibrated using bed roughness, and performance was evaluated based on depth and inundation agreement. Model bed load performance was evaluated in terms of critical shear stress exceedance area compared to maps of observed bed mobility in a flume. Following the standard hydraulic calibration, bed load performance was tested for sensitivity to horizontal eddy viscosity parameterization and bed morphology updating. Simulations produced depth errors equal to the SfM inherent errors, inundation agreement of 77-85%, and critical shear stress exceedance in agreement with 49-68% of the observed active area. This study provides insight into the ability of physically based, two-dimensional simulations to accurately predict bed load as well as the effects of horizontal eddy viscosity and bed updating. Further, this study highlights how using high spatial and temporal data to capture the physical processes at work during flume experiments can help to improve morphological modeling.

The identification of high potential archers based on fitness and motor ability variables: A Support Vector Machine approach.

PubMed

Taha, Zahari; Musa, Rabiu Muazu; P P Abdul Majeed, Anwar; Alim, Muhammad Muaz; Abdullah, Mohamad Razali

2018-02-01

Support Vector Machine (SVM) has been shown to be an effective learning algorithm for classification and prediction. However, the application of SVM for prediction and classification in specific sport has rarely been used to quantify/discriminate low and high-performance athletes. The present study classified and predicted high and low-potential archers from a set of fitness and motor ability variables trained on different SVMs kernel algorithms. 50 youth archers with the mean age and standard deviation of 17.0 ± 0.6 years drawn from various archery programmes completed a six arrows shooting score test. Standard fitness and ability measurements namely hand grip, vertical jump, standing broad jump, static balance, upper muscle strength and the core muscle strength were also recorded. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis (HACA) was used to cluster the archers based on the performance variables tested. SVM models with linear, quadratic, cubic, fine RBF, medium RBF, as well as the coarse RBF kernel functions, were trained based on the measured performance variables. The HACA clustered the archers into high-potential archers (HPA) and low-potential archers (LPA), respectively. The linear, quadratic, cubic, as well as the medium RBF kernel functions models, demonstrated reasonably excellent classification accuracy of 97.5% and 2.5% error rate for the prediction of the HPA and the LPA. The findings of this investigation can be valuable to coaches and sports managers to recognise high potential athletes from a combination of the selected few measured fitness and motor ability performance variables examined which would consequently save cost, time and effort during talent identification programme. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Predictive power of the DASA-IV: Variations in rating method and timescales.

PubMed

Nqwaku, Mphindisi; Draycott, Simon; Aldridge-Waddon, Luke; Bush, Emma-Louise; Tsirimokou, Alexandra; Jones, Dominic; Puzzo, Ignazio

2018-05-10

This project evaluated the predictive validity of the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression - Inpatient Version (DASA-IV) in a high-secure psychiatric hospital in the UK over 24 hours and over a single nursing shift. DASA-IV scores from three sequential nursing shifts over a 24-hour period were compared with the mean (average of three scores across the 24-hour period) and peak (highest of the three scores across the 24-hour period) scores across these shifts. In addition, scores from a single nursing shift were used to predict aggressive incidents over each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV was completed by nursing staff during handover meetings, rating 43 male psychiatric inpatients over a period of 6 months. Data were compared to incident reports recorded over the same period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and generalized estimating equations assessed the predictive ability of various DASA-IV scores over 24-hour and single-shift timescales. Scores from the DASA-IV based on a single shift had moderate predictive ability for aggressive incidents occurring the next calendar day, whereas scores based on all three shifts had excellent predictive ability. DASA-IV scores from a single shift showed moderate predictive ability for each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV has excellent predictive ability for aggressive incidents within a secure setting when data are summarized over a 24-hour period, as opposed to when a single rating is taken. In addition, it has moderate value for predicting incidents over even shorter timescales. © 2018 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kendell, Michelle; Beales, Darren; O'Sullivan, Peter; Rabey, Martin; Hill, Jonathan; Smith, Anne

2018-04-01

In people with chronic non-specific low back pain (LBP), what is the predictive and discriminative validity of the STarT Back Tool (SBT) for pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change at 1-year follow-up? What is the profile of the SBT risk subgroups with respect to demographic variables, pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and psychological measures? Prospective cohort study. A total of 290 adults with dominant axial LBP of≥3months' duration recruited from the general community, and private physiotherapy, psychology, and pain-management clinics in Western Australia. The 1-year follow-up measures were pain intensity, LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change. Outcomes were collected on 264 participants. The SBT categorised 82 participants (28%) as low risk, 116 (40%) as medium risk, and 92 (32%) as high risk. The risk subgroups differed significantly (p<0.05) on baseline pain, disability, and psychological scores. The SBT's predictive ability was strongest for disability: RR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.10) in the medium-risk group and 2.86 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.11) in the high-risk group. The SBT's predictive ability was weaker for pain: RR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.51) in the medium-risk group and 1.26 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.52) in the high-risk group. For the SBT total score, the AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77) for disability and 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71) for pain. This was the first large study to investigate the SBT in a population exclusively with chronic LBP. The SBT provided an acceptable indication of 1-year disability, had poor predictive and discriminative ability for future pain, and was unable to predict or discriminate global perceived change. In this cohort with chronic non-specific LBP, the SBT's predictive and discriminative abilities were restricted to disability at 1year. [Kendell M, Beales D, O'Sullivan P, Rabey M, Hill J, Smith A (2018) The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study. Journal of Physiotherapy 64: 107-113]. Copyright © 2018 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Applicability of Multidimensional Computerized Adaptive Testing for Cognitive Ability Measurement in Organizational Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makransky, Guido; Glas, Cees A. W.

2013-01-01

Cognitive ability tests are widely used in organizations around the world because they have high predictive validity in selection contexts. Although these tests typically measure several subdomains, testing is usually carried out for a single subdomain at a time. This can be ineffective when the subdomains assessed are highly correlated. This…

Informal Science Experience, Attitudes, Future Interest in Science, and Gender of High-Ability Students: An Exploratory Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joyce, Beverly A.; Farenga, Stephen J.

1999-01-01

Examines specific science-related attitudes, informal science-related experiences, future interest in science, and gender of young high-ability students (n=111) who completed the Test of Science Related Attitudes (TOSRA), the Science Experience Survey (SES), and the Course Selection Sheet (CSS). Develops two regression models to predict the number…

Prediction model of sinoatrial node field potential using high order partial least squares.

PubMed

Feng, Yu; Cao, Hui; Zhang, Yanbin

2015-01-01

High order partial least squares (HOPLS) is a novel data processing method. It is highly suitable for building prediction model which has tensor input and output. The objective of this study is to build a prediction model of the relationship between sinoatrial node field potential and high glucose using HOPLS. The three sub-signals of the sinoatrial node field potential made up the model's input. The concentration and the actuation duration of high glucose made up the model's output. The results showed that on the premise of predicting two dimensional variables, HOPLS had the same predictive ability and a lower dispersion degree compared with partial least squares (PLS).

Measurement and prediction of model-rotor flow fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owen, F. K.; Tauber, M. E.

1985-01-01

This paper shows that a laser velocimeter can be used to measure accurately the three-component velocities induced by a model rotor at transonic tip speeds. The measurements, which were made at Mach numbers from 0.85 to 0.95 and at zero advance ratio, yielded high-resolution, orthogonal velocity values. The measured velocities were used to check the ability of the ROT22 full-potential rotor code to predict accurately the transonic flow field in the crucial region around and beyond the tip of a high-speed rotor blade. The good agreement between the calculated and measured velocities established the code's ability to predict the off-blade flow field at transonic tip speeds. This supplements previous comparisons in which surface pressures were shown to be well predicted on two different tips at advance ratios to 0.45, especially at the critical 90 deg azimuthal blade position. These results demonstrate that the ROT22 code can be used with confidence to predict the important tip-region flow field, including the occurrence, strength, and location of shock waves causing high drag and noise.

Assessing the Performance of 3 Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence Risk Scores in a Cohort of Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men in the South.

PubMed

Jones, Jeb; Hoenigl, Martin; Siegler, Aaron J; Sullivan, Patrick S; Little, Susan; Rosenberg, Eli

2017-05-01

Risk scores have been developed to identify men at high risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion. These scores can be used to more efficiently allocate public health prevention resources, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis. However, the published scores were developed with data sets that comprise predominantly white men who have sex with men (MSM) collected several years prior and recruited from a limited geographic area. Thus, it is unclear how well these scores perform in men of different races or ethnicities or men in different geographic regions. We assessed the predictive ability of 3 published scores to predict HIV seroconversion in a cohort of black and white MSM in Atlanta, GA. Questionnaire data from the baseline study visit were used to derive individual scores for each participant. We assessed the discriminatory ability of each risk score to predict HIV seroconversion over 2 years of follow-up. The predictive ability of each score was low among all MSM and lower among black men compared to white men. Each score had lower sensitivity to predict seroconversion among black MSM compared to white MSM and low area under the curve values for the receiver operating characteristic curve indicating poor discriminatory ability. Reliance on the currently available risk scores will result in misclassification of high proportions of MSM, especially black MSM, in terms of HIV risk, leading to missed opportunities for HIV prevention services.

Utility of predicting group membership and the role of spatial visualization in becoming an engineer, physical scientist, or artist.

PubMed

Humphreys, L G; Lubinski, D; Yao, G

1993-04-01

This article has two themes: First, we explicate how the prediction of group membership can augment test validation designs restricted to prediction of individual differences in criterion performance. Second, we illustrate the utility of this methodology by documenting the importance of spatial visualization for becoming an engineer, physical scientist, or artist. This involved various longitudinal analyses on a sample of 400,000 high school students tracked after 11 years following their high school graduation. The predictive validities of Spatial-Math and Verbal-Math ability composites were established by successfully differentiating a variety of educational and occupational groups. One implication of our findings is that physical science and engineering disciplines appear to be losing many talented persons by restricting assessment to conventional mathematical and verbal abilities, such as those of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) and the Graduate Record Examination (GRE).

Task Values and Ability Beliefs as Predictors of High School Literacy Choices: A Developmental Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durik, Amanda M.; Vida, Mina; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

2005-01-01

This study examines how competence beliefs and task values predict high school achievement choices related to literacy. Students' task beliefs (self-concept of ability, intrinsic value, and importance) about reading in the 4th grade and English in the 10th grade were tracked over time. Task beliefs, school performance, and gender were used to…

Maximal Predictability Approach for Identifying the Right Descriptors for Electrocatalytic Reactions.

PubMed

Krishnamurthy, Dilip; Sumaria, Vaidish; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2018-02-01

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations are being routinely used to identify new material candidates that approach activity near fundamental limits imposed by thermodynamics or scaling relations. DFT calculations are associated with inherent uncertainty, which limits the ability to delineate materials (distinguishability) that possess high activity. Development of error-estimation capabilities in DFT has enabled uncertainty propagation through activity-prediction models. In this work, we demonstrate an approach to propagating uncertainty through thermodynamic activity models leading to a probability distribution of the computed activity and thereby its expectation value. A new metric, prediction efficiency, is defined, which provides a quantitative measure of the ability to distinguish activity of materials and can be used to identify the optimal descriptor(s) ΔG opt . We demonstrate the framework for four important electrochemical reactions: hydrogen evolution, chlorine evolution, oxygen reduction and oxygen evolution. Future studies could utilize expected activity and prediction efficiency to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of highly active material candidates.

Large-scale optimization-based classification models in medicine and biology.

PubMed

Lee, Eva K

2007-06-01

We present novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule); and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved-judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multi-group prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular degeneracy and tumor metastasis; prediction of protein localization sites; and pattern recognition of satellite images in classification of soil types. In all these applications, the predictive model yields correct classification rates ranging from 80 to 100%. This provides motivation for pursuing its use as a medical diagnostic, monitoring and decision-making tool.

The ‘unskilled and unaware’ effect is linear in a real-world setting

PubMed Central

Sawdon, Marina; Finn, Gabrielle

2014-01-01

Self-assessment ability in medical students and practising physicians is generally poor, yet essential for academic progress and professional development. The aim of this study was to determine undergraduate medical students' ability to self-assess their exam performance accurately in a real-world, high-stakes exam setting, something not previously investigated. Year 1 and Year 2 medical students (n = 74) participated in a self-assessment exercise. Students predicted their exam grade (%) on the anatomy practical exam. This exercise was completed online immediately after the exam. Students' predicted exam grades were correlated with their actual attained exam grades using a Pearson's correlation. Demographic data were analysed using an independent t-test. A negative correlation was found between students' overall predicted and attained exam grades (P < 0.0001). There was a significant difference between the students' predicted grades and actual grades in the bottom, 3rd and top (P < 0.0001), but not 2nd quartiles of participants. There was no relationship between the students' entry status into medical school and self-assessment ability (Year 1: P = 0.112; Year 2: P = 0.236) or between males and females (Year 1: P = 0.174). However, a relationship was determined for these variables in Year 2 (P = 0.022). The number of hours of additional self-directed learning undertaken did not influence students' self-assessment in both years. Our results demonstrate the ‘unskilled and unaware’ phenomenon in a real-world, high-stakes and practice-related setting. Students in all quartiles were unable to self-assess their exam performance, except for a group of mid-range students in the 2nd quartile. Poor performers were shown to overestimate their ability and, conversely, high achievers to underestimate their performance. We present evidence of a strong, significant linear relationship between medical students' ability to self-assess their performance in an anatomy practical exam, and their actual performance; in a real world setting. Despite the limited ability to self-assess reported in the literature, our results may inform approaches to revalidation, which currently frequently rely on an ability to self-assess. PMID:23781887

Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

PubMed

Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2017-06-01

Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

Predicting suicide attempts with the SAD PERSONS scale: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Bolton, James M; Spiwak, Rae; Sareen, Jitender

2012-06-01

The SAD PERSONS scale is a widely used risk assessment tool for suicidal behavior despite a paucity of supporting data. The objective of this study was to examine the ability of the scale in predicting suicide attempts. Participants consisted of consecutive referrals (N=4,019) over 2 years (January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010) to psychiatric services in the emergency departments of the 2 largest tertiary care hospitals in the province of Manitoba, Canada. SAD PERSONS and Modified SAD PERSONS (MSPS) scale scores were recorded for individuals at their index and all subsequent presentations. The 2 main outcome measures in the study included current suicide attempts (at index presentation) and future suicide attempts (within the next 6 months). The ability of the scales to predict suicide attempts was evaluated with logistic regression, sensitivity and specificity analyses, and receiver operating characteristic curves. 566 people presented with suicide attempts (14.1% of the sample). Both SAD PERSONS and MSPS showed poor predictive ability for future suicide attempts. Compared to low risk scores, high risk baseline scores had low sensitivity (19.6% and 40.0%, respectively) and low positive predictive value (5.3% and 7.4%, respectively). SAD PERSONS did not predict suicide attempts better than chance (area under the curve =0.572; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.64; P value nonsignificant). Stepwise regression identified 5 original scale items that accounted for the greatest proportion of future suicide attempt variance. High risk scores using this model had high sensitivity (93.5%) and were associated with a 5-fold higher likelihood of future suicide attempt presentation (odds ratio =5.58; 95% CI, 2.24-13.86; P<.001). In their current form, SAD PERSONS and MSPS do not accurately predict future suicide attempts. © Copyright 2012 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Study Of Flow About A Helicopter Rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tauber, Michael E.; Owen, F. Kevin

1989-01-01

Noninvasive instrument verifies computer program predicting velocities. Laser velocimeter measurements confirm predictions of transonic flow field around tip of helicopter-rotor blade. Report discusses measurements, which yield high-resolution orthogonal velocity components of flow field at rotor-tip. Mach numbers from 0.85 to 0.95, and use of measurements in verifying ability of computer program ROT22 to predict transonic flow field, including occurrences, strengths, and locations of shock waves causing high drag and noise.

Use of strainrange partitioning to predict high temperature low-cycle fatigue life. [of metallic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirschberg, M. H.; Halford, G. R.

1976-01-01

The fundamental concepts of the strainrange partitioning approach to high temperature, low low-cycle fatigue are reviewed. Procedures are presented by which the partitioned strainrange versus life relationships for any material can be generated. Laboratory tests are suggested for further verifying the ability of the method of strainrange partitioning to predict life.

Cross-national validation of prognostic models predicting sickness absence and the added value of work environment variables.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Stapelfeldt, Christina M; Heymans, Martijn W; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V; Bültmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

2015-06-01

To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. 2,562 municipal eldercare workers (95% women) participated in the Working in Eldercare Survey. Predictor variables were measured by questionnaire at baseline in 2005. Prognostic models were validated for predictions of high (≥30) SA days and high (≥3) SA episodes retrieved from employer records during 1-year follow-up. The accuracy of predictions was assessed by calibration graphs and the ability of the models to discriminate between high- and low-risk workers was investigated by ROC-analysis. The added value of work environment variables was measured with Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). 1,930 workers had complete data for analysis. The models underestimated the risk of high SA in eldercare workers and the SA episodes model had to be re-calibrated to the Danish data. Discrimination was practically useful for the re-calibrated SA episodes model, but not the SA days model. Physical workload improved the SA days model (IDI = 0.40; 95% CI 0.19-0.60) and psychosocial work factors, particularly the quality of leadership (IDI = 0.70; 95% CI 053-0.86) improved the SA episodes model. The prognostic model predicting high SA days showed poor performance even after physical workload was added. The prognostic model predicting high SA episodes could be used to identify high-risk workers, especially when psychosocial work factors are added as predictor variables.

Developing a Measure of General Academic Ability: An Application of Maximal Reliability and Optimal Linear Combination to High School Students' Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dimitrov, Dimiter M.; Raykov, Tenko; AL-Qataee, Abdullah Ali

2015-01-01

This article is concerned with developing a measure of general academic ability (GAA) for high school graduates who apply to colleges, as well as with the identification of optimal weights of the GAA indicators in a linear combination that yields a composite score with maximal reliability and maximal predictive validity, employing the framework of…

Self-Concept Predicts Academic Achievement Across Levels of the Achievement Distribution: Domain Specificity for Math and Reading.

PubMed

Susperreguy, Maria Ines; Davis-Kean, Pamela E; Duckworth, Kathryn; Chen, Meichu

2017-09-18

This study examines whether self-concept of ability in math and reading predicts later math and reading attainment across different levels of achievement. Data from three large-scale longitudinal data sets, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development-Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, and Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Child Development Supplement, were used to answer this question by employing quantile regression analyses. After controlling for demographic variables, child characteristics, and early ability, the findings indicate that self-concept of ability in math and reading predicts later achievement in each respective domain across all quantile levels of achievement. These results were replicated across the three data sets representing different populations and provide robust evidence for the role of self-concept of ability in understanding achievement from early childhood to adolescence across the spectrum of performance (low to high). © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

The Cognitive Abilities Scale--Second Edition Preschool Form: Studies of Concurrent Criterion-Related, Construct, and Predictive Criterion-Related Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, Jennifer R.; Bradley-Johnson, Sharon; Johnson, C. Merle; O'Dell, Anna Rubenaker

2009-01-01

Three studies examine the validity of the Preschool Form of the Cognitive Abilities Scale--Second Edition (CAS-2). Significant high concurrent criterion-related validity correlations, corrected for restricted range, are found between the CAS-2 and the Detroit Test of Learning Ability--Primary: Third Edition for 26 three-year-olds (r[subscript c] =…

Self-assessment of social cognitive ability in schizophrenia: Association with social cognitive test performance, informant assessments of social cognitive ability, and everyday outcomes.

PubMed

Silberstein, Juliet M; Pinkham, Amy E; Penn, David L; Harvey, Philip D

2018-04-17

Impairments in self-assessment are common in people with schizophrenia and impairments in self-assessment of cognitive ability have been found to predict impaired functional outcome. In this study, we examined self-assessment of social cognitive ability and related them to assessments of social cognition provided by informants, to performance on tests of social cognition, and to everyday outcomes. The difference between self-reported social cognition and informant ratings was used to predict everyday functioning. People with schizophrenia (n=135) performed 8 different tests of social cognition. They were asked to rate their social cognitive abilities on the Observable Social Cognition Rating Scale (OSCARs). High contact informants also rated social cognitive ability and everyday outcomes, while unaware of the patients' social cognitive performance and self-assessments. Social competence was measured with a performance-based assessment and clinical ratings of negative symptoms were also performed. Patient reports of their social cognitive abilities were uncorrelated with performance on social cognitive tests and with three of the four domains of functional outcomes. Differences between self-reported and informant rated social cognitive ability predicted impaired everyday functioning across all four functional domains. This difference score predicted disability even when the influences of social cognitive performance, social competence, and negative symptoms were considered. Mis-estimation of social cognitive ability was an important predictor of social and nonsocial outcomes in schizophrenia compared to performance on social cognitive tests. These results suggest that consideration of self-assessment is critical when attempting to evaluate the causes of disability and when trying to implement interventions targeting disability reduction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Apparent height and body mass index influence perceived leadership ability in three-dimensional faces.

PubMed

Re, Daniel E; Dzhelyova, Milena; Holzleitner, Iris J; Tigue, Cara C; Feinberg, David R; Perrett, David I

2012-01-01

Facial appearance has a well-documented effect on perceived leadership ability. Face judgments of leadership ability predict political election outcomes across the world, and similar judgments of business CEOs predict company profits. Body height is also associated with leadership ability, with taller people attaining positions of leadership more than their shorter counterparts in both politics and in the corporate world. Previous studies have found some face characteristics that are associated with leadership judgments, however there have been no studies with three-dimensional faces. We assessed which facial characteristics drive leadership judgments in three-dimensional faces. We found a perceptual relationship between height and leadership ability. We also found that facial maturity correlated with leadership judgments, and that faces of people with an unhealthily high body mass index received lower leadership ratings. We conclude that face attributes associated with body size and maturity alter leadership perception, and may influence real-world democratic leadership selection.

Predictors of Global Self-Worth and Academic Performance among Regular Education, Learning Disabled, and Continuation High School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiest, Dudley J.; Wong, Eugene H.; Kreil, Dennis A.

1998-01-01

The ability of measures of perceived competence, control, and autonomy support to predict self-worth and academic performance was studied across groups of high school students. Stepwise regression analyses indicate these variables in model predict self-worth and grade point average. In addition, levels of school status and depression predict…

Predicting Grades in College Courses: A Comparison of Multiple Regression and Percent Succeeding Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bridgeman, Brent; Pollack, Judith; Burton, Nancy

2008-01-01

Two methods of showing the ability of high school grades (high school grade point averages) and SAT scores to predict cumulative grades in different types of college courses were evaluated in a sample of 26 colleges. Each college contributed data from three cohorts of entering freshmen, and each cohort was followed for at least four years.…

Smoking, Discount Rates, and Returns to Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fersterer, Josef; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf

2003-01-01

Individual time preference determines schooling enrolment. Moreover, smoking behavior in early ages has been shown to be highly related to time preference rates. Insofar as discount rates are uncorrelated to ability, predicting school enrolment by discount rates can get rid of the ability bias in an earnings regression. Accordingly, we use smoking…

The Contribution of Cognitive Factors to Individual Differences in Understanding Noise-Vocoded Speech in Young and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Rosemann, Stephanie; Gießing, Carsten; Özyurt, Jale; Carroll, Rebecca; Puschmann, Sebastian; Thiel, Christiane M.

2017-01-01

Noise-vocoded speech is commonly used to simulate the sensation after cochlear implantation as it consists of spectrally degraded speech. High individual variability exists in learning to understand both noise-vocoded speech and speech perceived through a cochlear implant (CI). This variability is partly ascribed to differing cognitive abilities like working memory, verbal skills or attention. Although clinically highly relevant, up to now, no consensus has been achieved about which cognitive factors exactly predict the intelligibility of speech in noise-vocoded situations in healthy subjects or in patients after cochlear implantation. We aimed to establish a test battery that can be used to predict speech understanding in patients prior to receiving a CI. Young and old healthy listeners completed a noise-vocoded speech test in addition to cognitive tests tapping on verbal memory, working memory, lexicon and retrieval skills as well as cognitive flexibility and attention. Partial-least-squares analysis revealed that six variables were important to significantly predict vocoded-speech performance. These were the ability to perceive visually degraded speech tested by the Text Reception Threshold, vocabulary size assessed with the Multiple Choice Word Test, working memory gauged with the Operation Span Test, verbal learning and recall of the Verbal Learning and Retention Test and task switching abilities tested by the Comprehensive Trail-Making Test. Thus, these cognitive abilities explain individual differences in noise-vocoded speech understanding and should be considered when aiming to predict hearing-aid outcome. PMID:28638329

Predicting Peer Acceptance in Dutch Youth: A Multilevel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lubbers, Miranda; Van Der Werf, Margaretha; Kuyper, Hans; Offringa, G.

2006-01-01

This article uses an ecological approach to predict students' peer acceptance within junior high school classes. The authors investigate whether various characteristics (self-perception of physical attractiveness and athletic competence, cognitive ability, agreeableness, extraversion, age, parents education, number of siblings, siblings at same…

Spelling ability selectively predicts the magnitude of disruption in unspaced text reading.

PubMed

Veldre, Aaron; Drieghe, Denis; Andrews, Sally

2017-09-01

We examined the effect of individual differences in written language proficiency on unspaced text reading in a large sample of skilled adult readers who were assessed on reading comprehension and spelling ability. Participants' eye movements were recorded as they read sentences containing a low or high frequency target word, presented with standard interword spacing, or in one of three unsegmented text conditions that either preserved or eliminated word boundary information. The average data replicated previous studies: unspaced text reading was associated with increased fixation durations, a higher number of fixations, more regressions, reduced saccade length, and an inflation of the word frequency effect. The individual differences results provided insight into the mechanisms contributing to these effects. Higher reading ability was associated with greater overall reading speed and fluency in all conditions. In contrast, spelling ability selectively modulated the effect of interword spacing with poorer spelling ability predicting greater difficulty across the majority of sentence- and word-level measures. These results suggest that high quality lexical representations allowed better spellers to extract lexical units from unfamiliar text forms, inoculating them against the disruptive effects of being deprived of spacing information. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Whole-genome sequence-based genomic prediction in laying chickens with different genomic relationship matrices to account for genetic architecture.

PubMed

Ni, Guiyan; Cavero, David; Fangmann, Anna; Erbe, Malena; Simianer, Henner

2017-01-16

With the availability of next-generation sequencing technologies, genomic prediction based on whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data is now feasible in animal breeding schemes and was expected to lead to higher predictive ability, since such data may contain all genomic variants including causal mutations. Our objective was to compare prediction ability with high-density (HD) array data and WGS data in a commercial brown layer line with genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) models using various approaches to weight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A total of 892 chickens from a commercial brown layer line were genotyped with 336 K segregating SNPs (array data) that included 157 K genic SNPs (i.e. SNPs in or around a gene). For these individuals, genome-wide sequence information was imputed based on data from re-sequencing runs of 25 individuals, leading to 5.2 million (M) imputed SNPs (WGS data), including 2.6 M genic SNPs. De-regressed proofs (DRP) for eggshell strength, feed intake and laying rate were used as quasi-phenotypic data in genomic prediction analyses. Four weighting factors for building a trait-specific genomic relationship matrix were investigated: identical weights, -(log 10 P) from genome-wide association study results, squares of SNP effects from random regression BLUP, and variable selection based weights (known as BLUP|GA). Predictive ability was measured as the correlation between DRP and direct genomic breeding values in five replications of a fivefold cross-validation. Averaged over the three traits, the highest predictive ability (0.366 ± 0.075) was obtained when only genic SNPs from WGS data were used. Predictive abilities with genic SNPs and all SNPs from HD array data were 0.361 ± 0.072 and 0.353 ± 0.074, respectively. Prediction with -(log 10 P) or squares of SNP effects as weighting factors for building a genomic relationship matrix or BLUP|GA did not increase accuracy, compared to that with identical weights, regardless of the SNP set used. Our results show that little or no benefit was gained when using all imputed WGS data to perform genomic prediction compared to using HD array data regardless of the weighting factors tested. However, using only genic SNPs from WGS data had a positive effect on prediction ability.

Classification and disease prediction via mathematical programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eva K.; Wu, Tsung-Lin

2007-11-01

In this chapter, we present classification models based on mathematical programming approaches. We first provide an overview on various mathematical programming approaches, including linear programming, mixed integer programming, nonlinear programming and support vector machines. Next, we present our effort of novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule) and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multigroup prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; multistage discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular degeneracy and tumor metastasis; prediction of protein localization sites; and pattern recognition of satellite images in classification of soil types. In all these applications, the predictive model yields correct classification rates ranging from 80% to 100%. This provides motivation for pursuing its use as a medical diagnostic, monitoring and decision-making tool.

At-line determination of pharmaceuticals small molecule's blending end point using chemometric modeling combined with Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, Jagdish; Strong, Richard; Boulas, Pierre

2017-02-01

This article summarizes the development and validation of a Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy (FT-NIR) method for the rapid at-line prediction of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a powder blend to optimize small molecule formulations. The method was used to determine the blend uniformity end-point for a pharmaceutical solid dosage formulation containing a range of API concentrations. A set of calibration spectra from samples with concentrations ranging from 1% to 15% of API (w/w) were collected at-line from 4000 to 12,500 cm- 1. The ability of the FT-NIR method to predict API concentration in the blend samples was validated against a reference high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. The prediction efficiency of four different types of multivariate data modeling methods such as partial least-squares 1 (PLS1), partial least-squares 2 (PLS2), principal component regression (PCR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were compared using relevant multivariate figures of merit. The prediction ability of the regression models were cross validated against results generated with the reference HPLC method. PLS1 and ANN showed excellent and superior prediction abilities when compared to PLS2 and PCR. Based upon these results and because of its decreased complexity compared to ANN, PLS1 was selected as the best chemometric method to predict blend uniformity at-line. The FT-NIR measurement and the associated chemometric analysis were implemented in the production environment for rapid at-line determination of the end-point of the small molecule blending operation. FIGURE 1: Correlation coefficient vs Rank plot FIGURE 2: FT-NIR spectra of different steps of Blend and final blend FIGURE 3: Predictions ability of PCR FIGURE 4: Blend uniformity predication ability of PLS2 FIGURE 5: Prediction efficiency of blend uniformity using ANN FIGURE 6: Comparison of prediction efficiency of chemometric models TABLE 1: Order of Addition for Blending Steps

Prospective comparison of three predictive rules for assessing severity of community‐acquired pneumonia in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Man, Shin Yan; Lee, Nelson; Ip, Margaret; Antonio, Gregory E; Chau, Shirley SL; Mak, Paulina; Graham, Colin A; Zhang, Mingdong; Lui, Grace; Chan, Paul K S; Ahuja, Anil T; Hui, David S; Sung, Joseph J Y; Rainer, Timothy H

2007-01-01

Background Community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading infectious cause of death throughout the world, including Hong Kong. Aim To compare the ability of three validated prediction rules for CAP to predict mortality in Hong Kong: the 20 variable Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), the 6‐point CURB65 scale adopted by the British Thoracic Society and the simpler CRB65. Methods A prospective observational study of 1016 consecutive inpatients with CAP (583 men, mean (SD) age 72 (17) years) was performed in a university hospital in the New Territories of Hong Kong in 2004. The patients were classified into three risk groups (low, intermediate and high) according to each rule. The ability of the three rules to predict 30 day mortality was compared. Results The overall mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates were 8.6% and 4.0%, respectively. PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 performed similarly, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were 0.736 (95% CI 0.687 to 0.736), 0.733 (95% CI 0.679 to 0.787) and 0.694 (95% CI 0.634 to 0.753), respectively. All three rules had high negative predictive values but relatively low positive predictive values at all cut‐off points. Larger proportions of patients were identified as low risk by PSI (47.2%) and CURB65 (43.3%) than by CRB65 (12.6%). Conclusion All three predictive rules have a similar performance in predicting the severity of CAP, but CURB65 is more suitable than the other two for use in the emergency department because of its simplicity of application and ability to identify low‐risk patients. PMID:17121867

The Relevance of Emotional Intelligence in Personnel Selection for High Emotional Labor Jobs

PubMed Central

Hock, Michael; Schütz, Astrid

2016-01-01

Although a large number of studies have pointed to the potential of emotional intelligence (EI) in the context of personnel selection, research in real-life selection contexts is still scarce. The aim of the present study was to examine whether EI would predict Assessment Center (AC) ratings of job-relevant competencies in a sample of applicants for the position of a flight attendant. Applicants’ ability to regulate emotions predicted performance in group exercises. However, there were inconsistent effects of applicants’ ability to understand emotions: Whereas the ability to understand emotions had a positive effect on performance in interview and role play, the effect on performance in group exercises was negative. We suppose that the effect depends on task type and conclude that tests of emotional abilities should be used judiciously in personnel selection procedures. PMID:27124201

Music training, cognition, and personality.

PubMed

Corrigall, Kathleen A; Schellenberg, E Glenn; Misura, Nicole M

2013-01-01

Although most studies that examined associations between music training and cognitive abilities had correlational designs, the prevailing bias is that music training causes improvements in cognition. It is also possible, however, that high-functioning children are more likely than other children to take music lessons, and that they also differ in personality. We asked whether individual differences in cognition and personality predict who takes music lessons and for how long. The participants were 118 adults (Study 1) and 167 10- to 12-year-old children (Study 2). We collected demographic information and measured cognitive ability and the Big Five personality dimensions. As in previous research, cognitive ability was associated with musical involvement even when demographic variables were controlled statistically. Novel findings indicated that personality was associated with musical involvement when demographics and cognitive ability were held constant, and that openness-to-experience was the personality dimension with the best predictive power. These findings reveal that: (1) individual differences influence who takes music lessons and for how long, (2) personality variables are at least as good as cognitive variables at predicting music training, and (3) future correlational studies of links between music training and non-musical ability should account for individual differences in personality.

Using Growth Rate of Reading Fluency to Predict Performance on Statewide Achievement Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkle, Rachelle Whittaker

2011-01-01

Federal legislation has prescribed the increased use of statewide achievement tests as the culmination of a student's knowledge and ability at the end of a grade level; however, schools need to be able to predict those who are at-risk of performing poorly on these high-stakes tests. Three studies served to identify a means of predicting statewide…

A Test of the Relationship between Reading Ability & Standardized Biology Assessment Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Denise A.

2014-01-01

Little empirical evidence suggested that independent reading abilities of students enrolled in biology predicted their performance on the Biology I Graduation End-of-Course Assessment (ECA). An archival study was conducted at one Indiana urban public high school in Indianapolis, Indiana, by examining existing educational assessment data to test…

The Importance of Intrinsic Motivation for High and Low Ability Readers' Reading Comprehension Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Logan, Sarah; Medford, Emma; Hughes, Naomi

2011-01-01

The study examined how cognitive and motivational factors predicted reading skill and whether intrinsic reading motivation would explain significantly more variance in low ability readers' reading performance. One hundred and eleven children (aged 9-11) completed assessments of reading comprehension skill, verbal IQ, decoding skill and intrinsic…

Students' Understanding of Genetics Concepts: The Effect of Reasoning Ability and Learning Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiliç, Didem; Saglam, Necdet

2014-01-01

Students tend to learn genetics by rote and may not realise the interrelationships in daily life. Because reasoning abilities are necessary to construct relationships between concepts and rote learning impedes the students' sound understanding, it was predicted that having high level of formal reasoning and adopting meaningful learning orientation…

Teachers See What Ability Scores Cannot: Predicting Student Performance with Challenging Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foreman, Jennifer L.; Gubbins, E. Jean

2015-01-01

Teacher nominations of students are commonly used in gifted and talented identification systems to supplement psychometric measures of reasoning ability. In this study, second grade teachers were requested to nominate approximately one fourth of their students as having high learning potential in the year prior to the students' participation in a…

A test of the circumvention-of-limits hypothesis in scientific problem solving: the case of geological bedrock mapping.

PubMed

Hambrick, David Z; Libarkin, Julie C; Petcovic, Heather L; Baker, Kathleen M; Elkins, Joe; Callahan, Caitlin N; Turner, Sheldon P; Rench, Tara A; Ladue, Nicole D

2012-08-01

Sources of individual differences in scientific problem solving were investigated. Participants representing a wide range of experience in geology completed tests of visuospatial ability and geological knowledge, and performed a geological bedrock mapping task, in which they attempted to infer the geological structure of an area in the Tobacco Root Mountains of Montana. A Visuospatial Ability × Geological Knowledge interaction was found, such that visuospatial ability positively predicted mapping performance at low, but not high, levels of geological knowledge. This finding suggests that high levels of domain knowledge may sometimes enable circumvention of performance limitations associated with cognitive abilities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Technical evaluation report of the Specialists Meeting on Characterization of Low Cycle High Temperature Fatigue by the Strainrange Partitioning Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drapier, J. M.; Hirschberg, M. H.

1979-01-01

The ability of the Strainrange Partitioning Method SRP was evaluated to correlate the creep-fatigue behavior of gas turbine materials and to predict the creep fatigue life of laboratory specimens subjected to complex cycling conditions. A reference body of high temperature creep fatigue data which can be used in the evaluation of other SRP and low cycle high temperature fatigue predictive techniques was provided.

Teaching Ecological Principles as a Basis for Understanding Environmental Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Paul; Boltt, Gill

1989-01-01

Using case study data, determines high school pupils' and university students' (n=162) ability to predict possible outcomes of interactions between ecological populations . Results indicate the majority of respondents could predict interactive outcomes within a simple food web but not when the interaction involved multiple routes. (five…

Controlling for Frailty in Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies of Older Adults: Validation of an Existing Medicare Claims-based Algorithm.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Carmen C; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Faurot, Keturah R; Stürmer, Til; Jonsson Funk, Michele; Palta, Priya; Windham, B Gwen; Thai, Sydney; Lund, Jennifer L

2018-07-01

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness and weight loss and is associated with adverse health outcomes. It is often an unmeasured confounder in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies using administrative claims data. Among the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Visit 5 participants (2011-2013; n = 3,146), we conducted a validation study to compare a Medicare claims-based algorithm of dependency in activities of daily living (or dependency) developed as a proxy for frailty with a reference standard measure of phenotypic frailty. We applied the algorithm to the ARIC participants' claims data to generate a predicted probability of dependency. Using the claims-based algorithm, we estimated the C-statistic for predicting phenotypic frailty. We further categorized participants by their predicted probability of dependency (<5%, 5% to <20%, and ≥20%) and estimated associations with difficulties in physical abilities, falls, and mortality. The claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67, 0.74). Participants classified with a high predicted probability of dependency (≥20%) had higher prevalence of falls and difficulty in physical ability, and a greater risk of 1-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 5.7 [95% CI = 2.5, 13]) than participants classified with a low predicted probability (<5%). Sensitivity and specificity varied across predicted probability of dependency thresholds. The Medicare claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty and high predictive ability with adverse health outcomes. This algorithm can be used in future Medicare claims analyses to reduce confounding by frailty and improve study validity.

Investigating the running abilities of Tyrannosaurus rex using stress-constrained multibody dynamic analysis.

PubMed

Sellers, William I; Pond, Stuart B; Brassey, Charlotte A; Manning, Philip L; Bates, Karl T

2017-01-01

The running ability of Tyrannosaurus rex has been intensively studied due to its relevance to interpretations of feeding behaviour and the biomechanics of scaling in giant predatory dinosaurs. Different studies using differing methodologies have produced a very wide range of top speed estimates and there is therefore a need to develop techniques that can improve these predictions. Here we present a new approach that combines two separate biomechanical techniques (multibody dynamic analysis and skeletal stress analysis) to demonstrate that true running gaits would probably lead to unacceptably high skeletal loads in T. rex . Combining these two approaches reduces the high-level of uncertainty in previous predictions associated with unknown soft tissue parameters in dinosaurs, and demonstrates that the relatively long limb segments of T. rex -long argued to indicate competent running ability-would actually have mechanically limited this species to walking gaits. Being limited to walking speeds contradicts arguments of high-speed pursuit predation for the largest bipedal dinosaurs like T. rex , and demonstrates the power of multiphysics approaches for locomotor reconstructions of extinct animals.

Emotions in the classroom: the role of teachers' emotional intelligence ability in predicting students' achievement.

PubMed

Curci, Antonietta; Lanciano, Tiziana; Soleti, Emanuela

2014-01-01

School days can be a difficult time, especially when students are faced with subjects that require motivational investment along with cognitive effort, such as mathematics and sciences. In the present study, we investigated the effects of teachers' emotional intelligence (El) ability, self-efficacy, and emotional states and students' self-esteem, perceptions of ability, and metacognitive beliefs in predicting school achievement. We hypothesized that the level of teacher EI ability would moderate the impact of students' self-perceptions and beliefs about their achievements in mathematics and sciences. Students from Italian junior high schools (N = 338) and their math teachers (N = 12) were involved in the study, and a multilevel approach was used. Findings showed that teachers' EI has a positive role in promoting students' achievement, by enhancing the effects of students' self-perceptions of ability and self-esteem.These results have implications for the implementation of intervention programs on the emotional, motivational, and metacognitive correlates of studying and learning behavior.

Modelling the multidimensional niche by linking functional traits to competitive performance

PubMed Central

Maynard, Daniel S.; Leonard, Kenneth E.; Drake, John M.; Hall, David W.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Bradford, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Linking competitive outcomes to environmental conditions is necessary for understanding species' distributions and responses to environmental change. Despite this importance, generalizable approaches for predicting competitive outcomes across abiotic gradients are lacking, driven largely by the highly complex and context-dependent nature of biotic interactions. Here, we present and empirically test a novel niche model that uses functional traits to model the niche space of organisms and predict competitive outcomes of co-occurring populations across multiple resource gradients. The model makes no assumptions about the underlying mode of competition and instead applies to those settings where relative competitive ability across environments correlates with a quantifiable performance metric. To test the model, a series of controlled microcosm experiments were conducted using genetically related strains of a widespread microbe. The model identified trait microevolution and performance differences among strains, with the predicted competitive ability of each organism mapped across a two-dimensional carbon and nitrogen resource space. Areas of coexistence and competitive dominance between strains were identified, and the predicted competitive outcomes were validated in approximately 95% of the pairings. By linking trait variation to competitive ability, our work demonstrates a generalizable approach for predicting and modelling competitive outcomes across changing environmental contexts. PMID:26136444

Ability Testing for Job Selection: Are the Economic Claims Justified?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Henry M.

The use of ability testing for job selection has become widespread in the Federal Government and in the U.S. Employment Service, which assists private sector employers. The justification for the practice is based largely on research findings claiming a high level of validity for such tests in predicting job performance. More recently, such claims…

Locus of Control and Sex Differences in Performance on an Instructional Task.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holloway, Richard L.; Robinson, Beatrice

1979-01-01

Used locus of control, ability, sex, task selection, task structure, and recall in a regression model to predict affective response to type of instruction of 104 high school seniors. Results showed a main effect for recall, and interaction effects for recall x sex and recall x ability. References are listed. (Author/JEG)

Work ability of Dutch employees with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

de Croon, E M; Sluiter, J K; Nijssen, T F; Kammeijer, M; Dijkmans, B A C; Lankhorst, G J; Frings-Dresen, M H W

2005-01-01

To (i) examine the association between fatigue, psychosocial work characteristics (job control, support, participation in decision making, psychological job demands), and physical work requirements on the one hand and work ability of employees with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) on the other, and (ii) determine the advice that health care professionals give to employees with RA on how to maintain their work ability. Data were gathered from 78 employees with early RA (response = 99%) by telephone interviews and self-report questionnaires. Fatigue, lack of autonomy, low coworker/supervisor support, low participation in decision making, and high physical work requirements (i.e. using manual force) predicted low work ability. High psychological job demands, however, did not predict low work ability. The rheumatologist, occupational physician, occupational therapist, physiotherapist, and psychologist gave advice on how to cope with RA at work to 36, 30, 27, 26, and 17% of the employees, respectively. Advice was directed mainly at factors intrinsic to the employee. Employees expressed a positive attitude towards this advice. Fatigue, lack of support, lack of autonomy, lack of participation in decision making, and using manual force at work (e.g. pushing and pulling) threaten the work ability of employees with RA. According to the employees with RA, involvement of health care professionals from different disciplines and the implementation of organizational and technical interventions would help them to tackle these threats.

Evaluation of MELD score and Maddrey discriminant function for mortality prediction in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Monsanto, Pedro; Almeida, Nuno; Lrias, Clotilde; Pina, Jos Eduardo; Sofia, Carlos

2013-01-01

Maddrey discriminant function (DF) is the traditional model for evaluating the severity and prognosis in alcoholic hepatitis (AH). However, MELD has also been used for this purpose. We aimed to determine the predictive parameters and compare the ability of Maddrey DF and MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH. Retrospective study of 45 patients admitted in our department with AH between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were collected. MELD and Maddrey DF were calculated on admission. Short-term mortality was assessed at 30 and 90 days. Student t-test, χ2 test, univariate analysis, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed. Thirty-day and 90-day mortality was 27% and 42%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, Maddrey DF was the only independent predictor of mortality for these two periods. Receiver operating characteristic curves for Maddrey DF revealed an excellent discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for a Maddrey DF greater than 65 and 60, respectively. Discriminatory ability to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality for MELD was low. AH remains associated with a high short-term mortality. Maddrey DF is a more valuable model than MELD to predict short-term mortality in patients with AH.

Work improvement factors for the amelioration of work ability, with a focus on individual capacity to deal with stress in an IT company.

PubMed

Ohta, Masanori; Higuchi, Yoshiyuki; Kumashiro, Masaharu; Yamato, Hiroshi; Sugimura, Hisamichi

2015-03-01

The aim of this study was to explore factors that ameliorate work ability by focusing on workers' capacity to deal with stress.The subjects were 1,330 workers from the Japanese information technology (IT) sector. Each subject completed questionnaires in 2011 and 2012 that consisted of the work ability index (WAI), the three-item sense of coherence (SOC), and the Mental Health Improvement and Reinforcement Research of Recognition (MIRROR). The results of the WAI were also obtained in 2013. The median SOC score in 2011 was used to divide the subjects into two groups, the Low SOC group and the High SOC group, then we verified the factors that contributed to improved work ability in both of these groups over a two-year period. Results indicate that an improvement in work ability in the Low SOC group could be predicted by giving workers opportunities for education or training, by making efforts to reduce the stress of commuting, by clarifying their assignments, and by establishing support systems when troubles occur. For the High SOC group, such improvements could be predicted by giving workers job control, by giving education or training for the promotion of their abilities, and by establishing a system for assuming responsibility. In conclusion, improvements in the work environment can increase the work ability of Japanese IT workers in conformity with their capacity to deal with stress.

High Reynolds number analysis of an axisymmetric afterbody with flow separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, John R.; Reubush, David E.

1996-01-01

The ability of a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes method, PAB3D, to predict nozzle afterbody flow at high Reynolds number was assessed. Predicted surface pressure coefficient distributions and integrated afterbody drag are compared with experimental data obtained from the NASA-Langley 0.3 m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Predicted afterbody surface pressures matched experimental data fairly closely. The change in the pressure coefficient distribution with Reynolds number was slightly over-predicted. Integrated afterbody drag was typically high compared to the experimental data. The change in afterbody pressure drag with Reynolds number was fairly small. The predicted point of flow separation on the nozzle was slightly downstream of that observed from oilflow data at low Reynolds numbers and had a very slight Reynolds number dependence, moving slightly further downstream as Reynolds number increased.

Evaluating high temporal and spatial resolution vegetation index for crop yield prediction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Remote sensing data have been widely used in estimating crop yield. Remote sensing derived parameters such as Vegetation Index (VI) were used either directly in building empirical models or by assimilating with crop growth models to predict crop yield. The abilities of remote sensing VI in crop yiel...

How do temperate bryophytes face the challenge of a changing environment? Lessons from the past and predictions for the future.

PubMed

Désamoré, Aurélie; Laenen, Benjamin; Stech, Michael; Papp, Beata; Hedenäs, Lars; Mateo, Ruben G; Vanderpoorten, Alain

2012-09-01

Bryophytes are a group of early land plants, whose specific ecophysiological and biological features, including poikilohydry, sensitivity to moderately high temperature and high dispersal ability, make them ideal candidates for investigating the impact of climate changes. Employing a combined approach of species distribution modelling (SDM) and molecular phylogeography in the temperate moss Homalothecium sericeum, we explore the significance of the Mediterranean refugia, contrasting the southern and northern refugia hypotheses, determine the extent to which recolonization of previously glaciated areas has been facilitated by the high dispersal ability of the species and make predictions on the extent to which it will be impacted by ongoing climate change. The Mediterranean areas exhibit the highest nucleotidic diversities and host a mixture of ancestral, endemic and more recently derived haplotypes. Extra-Mediterranean areas exhibit low genetic diversities and Euro-Siberian populations display a significant signal of expansion that is identified to be of Euro-Siberian origin, pointing to the northern refugia hypothesis. The SDMs predict a global net increase in range size owing to ongoing climate change, but substantial range reductions in southern areas. Presence of a significant phylogeographical signal at different spatial scales suggests, however, that dispersal limitations might constitute, as opposed to the traditional view of spore-producing plants as efficient dispersers, a constraint for migration. This casts doubts about the ability of the species to face the massive extinctions predicted in the southern areas, threatening their status of reservoir of genetic diversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Visuo-motor coordination ability predicts performance with brain-computer interfaces controlled by modulation of sensorimotor rhythms (SMR)

PubMed Central

Hammer, Eva M.; Kaufmann, Tobias; Kleih, Sonja C.; Blankertz, Benjamin; Kübler, Andrea

2014-01-01

Modulation of sensorimotor rhythms (SMR) was suggested as a control signal for brain-computer interfaces (BCI). Yet, there is a population of users estimated between 10 to 50% not able to achieve reliable control and only about 20% of users achieve high (80–100%) performance. Predicting performance prior to BCI use would facilitate selection of the most feasible system for an individual, thus constitute a practical benefit for the user, and increase our knowledge about the correlates of BCI control. In a recent study, we predicted SMR-BCI performance from psychological variables that were assessed prior to the BCI sessions and BCI control was supported with machine-learning techniques. We described two significant psychological predictors, namely the visuo-motor coordination ability and the ability to concentrate on the task. The purpose of the current study was to replicate these results thereby validating these predictors within a neurofeedback based SMR-BCI that involved no machine learning.Thirty-three healthy BCI novices participated in a calibration session and three further neurofeedback training sessions. Two variables were related with mean SMR-BCI performance: (1) a measure for the accuracy of fine motor skills, i.e., a trade for a person’s visuo-motor control ability; and (2) subject’s “attentional impulsivity”. In a linear regression they accounted for almost 20% in variance of SMR-BCI performance, but predictor (1) failed significance. Nevertheless, on the basis of our prior regression model for sensorimotor control ability we could predict current SMR-BCI performance with an average prediction error of M = 12.07%. In more than 50% of the participants, the prediction error was smaller than 10%. Hence, psychological variables played a moderate role in predicting SMR-BCI performance in a neurofeedback approach that involved no machine learning. Future studies are needed to further consolidate (or reject) the present predictors. PMID:25147518

Heuristics and biases: interactions among numeracy, ability, and reflectiveness predict normative responding

PubMed Central

Klaczynski, Paul A.

2014-01-01

In Stanovich's (2009a, 2011) dual-process theory, analytic processing occurs in the algorithmic and reflective minds. Thinking dispositions, indexes of reflective mind functioning, are believed to regulate operations at the algorithmic level, indexed by general cognitive ability. General limitations at the algorithmic level impose constraints on, and affect the adequacy of, specific strategies and abilities (e.g., numeracy). In a study of 216 undergraduates, the hypothesis that thinking dispositions and general ability moderate the relationship between numeracy (understanding of mathematical concepts and attention to numerical information) and normative responses on probabilistic heuristics and biases (HB) problems was tested. Although all three individual difference measures predicted normative responses, the numeracy-normative response association depended on thinking dispositions and general ability. Specifically, numeracy directly affected normative responding only at relatively high levels of thinking dispositions and general ability. At low levels of thinking dispositions, neither general ability nor numeric skills related to normative responses. Discussion focuses on the consistency of these findings with the hypothesis that the implementation of specific skills is constrained by limitations at both the reflective level and the algorithmic level, methodological limitations that prohibit definitive conclusions, and alternative explanations. PMID:25071639

Verbal ability and delinquency: testing the moderating role of psychopathic traits.

PubMed

Muñoz, Luna C; Frick, Paul J; Kimonis, Eva R; Aucoin, Katherine J

2008-04-01

Impaired verbal abilities are one of the most consistent risk factors for serious antisocial and delinquent behavior. However, individuals with psychopathic traits often show serious antisocial behavior, despite showing no impairment in their verbal abilities. Thus, the aim of the current study was to examine whether psychopathy moderates the relationship between verbal abilities and delinquent behavior in a sample of detained youth. The sample included 100 detained adolescent boys who were assessed on self-reported delinquent acts and psychopathic traits, as well as their age at first offense based on official records. Participants also completed a competitive computer task involving two levels of provocation, during which skin conductance was measured. A standard measure of receptive vocabulary was individually administered. As predicted, there was a significant interaction between callous-unemotional (CU) traits (a critical dimension of psychopathy) and verbal ability when predicting violent delinquency. Individuals who were high on CU traits with higher scores on the measure of verbal abilities reported the greatest violent delinquency. These individuals also showed the lowest level of skin conductance reactivity during the provocation task. The results suggest CU traits are an important moderator of the relation between verbal abilities and violent delinquency.

Heuristics and biases: interactions among numeracy, ability, and reflectiveness predict normative responding.

PubMed

Klaczynski, Paul A

2014-01-01

In Stanovich's (2009a, 2011) dual-process theory, analytic processing occurs in the algorithmic and reflective minds. Thinking dispositions, indexes of reflective mind functioning, are believed to regulate operations at the algorithmic level, indexed by general cognitive ability. General limitations at the algorithmic level impose constraints on, and affect the adequacy of, specific strategies and abilities (e.g., numeracy). In a study of 216 undergraduates, the hypothesis that thinking dispositions and general ability moderate the relationship between numeracy (understanding of mathematical concepts and attention to numerical information) and normative responses on probabilistic heuristics and biases (HB) problems was tested. Although all three individual difference measures predicted normative responses, the numeracy-normative response association depended on thinking dispositions and general ability. Specifically, numeracy directly affected normative responding only at relatively high levels of thinking dispositions and general ability. At low levels of thinking dispositions, neither general ability nor numeric skills related to normative responses. Discussion focuses on the consistency of these findings with the hypothesis that the implementation of specific skills is constrained by limitations at both the reflective level and the algorithmic level, methodological limitations that prohibit definitive conclusions, and alternative explanations.

White matter tract covariance patterns predict age-declining cognitive abilities.

PubMed

Gazes, Yunglin; Bowman, F DuBois; Razlighi, Qolamreza R; O'Shea, Deirdre; Stern, Yaakov; Habeck, Christian

2016-01-15

Previous studies investigating the relationship of white matter (WM) integrity to cognitive abilities and aging have either focused on a global measure or a few selected WM tracts. Ideally, contribution from all of the WM tracts should be evaluated at the same time. However, the high collinearity among WM tracts precludes systematic examination of WM tracts simultaneously without sacrificing statistical power due to stringent multiple-comparison corrections. Multivariate covariance techniques enable comprehensive simultaneous examination of all WM tracts without being penalized for high collinearity among observations. In this study, Scaled Subprofile Modeling (SSM) was applied to the mean integrity of 18 major WM tracts to extract covariance patterns that optimally predicted four cognitive abilities (perceptual speed, episodic memory, fluid reasoning, and vocabulary) in 346 participants across ages 20 to 79years old. Using expression of the covariance patterns, age-independent effects of white matter integrity on cognition and the indirect effect of WM integrity on age-related differences in cognition were tested separately, but inferences from the indirect analyses were cautiously made given that cross-sectional data set was used in the analysis. A separate covariance pattern was identified that significantly predicted each cognitive ability after controlling for age except for vocabulary, but the age by WM covariance pattern interaction was not significant for any of the three abilities. Furthermore, each of the patterns mediated the effect of age on the respective cognitive ability. A distinct set of WM tracts was most influential in each of the three patterns. The WM covariance pattern accounting for fluid reasoning showed the most number of influential WM tracts whereas the episodic memory pattern showed the least number. Specific patterns of WM tracts make significant contributions to the age-related differences in perceptual speed, episodic memory, and fluid reasoning but not vocabulary. Other measures of brain health will need to be explored to reveal the major influences on the vocabulary ability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reduction of Off-Boresight Fields for a TEM Horn Antenna

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-01

model predicts the tapers will reduce the diffraction. Experimental results verify the TPS’s ability to reduce the peak off-hureslht ld& for a. TElL horn...diffractin. Experimental results verify the PS’s ability to reduce the fields foi a T14 horn anitnna xi Reduction of Off-Boresight Fields for a TEM Horn...geometry, has a constant amplitude response. Two simple models repiesent a TEM horn - a high frequency model and a low frequency model [5). At high

Improved prediction of antibody VL–VH orientation

PubMed Central

Marze, Nicholas A.; Lyskov, Sergey; Gray, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Antibodies are important immune molecules with high commercial value and therapeutic interest because of their ability to bind diverse antigens. Computational prediction of antibody structure can quickly reveal valuable information about the nature of these antigen-binding interactions, but only if the models are of sufficient quality. To achieve high model quality during complementarity-determining region (CDR) structural prediction, one must account for the VL–VH orientation. We developed a novel four-metric VL–VH orientation coordinate frame. Additionally, we extended the CDR grafting protocol in RosettaAntibody with a new method that diversifies VL–VH orientation by using 10 VL–VH orientation templates rather than a single one. We tested the multiple-template grafting protocol on two datasets of known antibody crystal structures. During the template-grafting phase, the new protocol improved the fraction of accurate VL–VH orientation predictions from only 26% (12/46) to 72% (33/46) of targets. After the full RosettaAntibody protocol, including CDR H3 remodeling and VL–VH re-orientation, the new protocol produced more candidate structures with accurate VL–VH orientation than the standard protocol in 43/46 targets (93%). The improved ability to predict VL–VH orientation will bolster predictions of other parts of the paratope, including the conformation of CDR H3, a grand challenge of antibody homology modeling. PMID:27276984

External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models.

PubMed

Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample. The VQI AAA database (2010-2015) was queried for patients who underwent elective AAA repair. The VSGNE cases were excluded from the VQI sample. The external validation of a recently published VSGNE AAA risk predictive model, which includes only preoperative variables (age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, creatinine levels, and aneurysm size) and planned type of repair, was performed using the VQI elective AAA repair sample. The predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to assess calibration and goodness of fit. This model was then compared with the Medicare, Vascular Governance Northwest model, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score for predicting mortality in VQI sample. The Vuong test was performed to compare the model fit between the models. Model discrimination was assessed in different risk group VQI quintiles. Data from 4431 cases from the VSGNE sample with the overall mortality rate of 1.4% was used to develop the model. The internally validated VSGNE model showed a very high discriminating ability in predicting mortality (C = 0.822) and good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .309) among the VSGNE elective AAA repair sample. External validation on 16,989 VQI cases with an overall 0.9% mortality rate showed very robust predictive ability of mortality (C = 0.802). Vuong tests yielded a significant fit difference favoring the VSGNE over then Medicare model (C = 0.780), Vascular Governance Northwest (0.774), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (0.639). Across the 5 risk quintiles, the VSGNE model predicted observed mortality significantly with great accuracy. This simple VSGNE AAA risk predictive model showed very high discriminative ability in predicting mortality after elective AAA repair among a large external independent sample of AAA cases performed by a diverse array of physicians nationwide. The risk score based on this simple VSGNE model can reliably stratify patients according to their risk of mortality after elective AAA repair better than other established models. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension: single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; van Rhenen, Willem; Groothoff, Johan W; van der Klink, Jac J L; Twisk, Jos W R; Heymans, Martijn W

2014-07-01

Work ability predicts future disability pension (DP). A single-item work ability score (WAS) is emerging as a measure for work ability. This study compared single-item WAS with the multi-item work ability index (WAI) in its ability to identify workers at risk of DP. This prospective cohort study comprised 11 537 male construction workers, who completed the WAI at baseline and reported DP after a mean 2.3 years of follow-up. WAS and WAI were calibrated for DP risk predictions with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and their ability to discriminate between high- and low-risk construction workers was investigated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). At follow-up, 336 (3%) construction workers reported DP. Both WAS [odds ratio (OR) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.66-0.78] and WAI (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.52-0.63) scores were associated with DP at follow-up. The WAS showed miscalibration (H-L model χ (�)=10.60; df=3; P=0.01) and poorly discriminated between high- and low-risk construction workers (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.64-0.70). In contrast, calibration (H-L model χ �=8.20; df=8; P=0.41) and discrimination (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.80) were both adequate for the WAI. Although associated with the risk of future DP, the single-item WAS poorly identified male construction workers at risk of DP. We recommend using the multi-item WAI to screen for risk of DP in occupational health practice.

Do motor ability and handwriting kinematic measures predict organizational ability among children with Developmental Coordination Disorders?

PubMed

Rosenblum, Sara

2015-10-01

Children with Developmental Coordination Disorders (DCD) exhibit deficient daily performance concealed in their perception-action mechanism. The aim of this study was to analyze behavior organization of children with DCD, in varied tasks that require generating and monitoring mental representations related to space and time inputs/requirements, for achieving better insight about their perception-action mechanism. Participants included 42 children aged 7-10, half of whom were defined with DCD and half were typically developing (TD). The children were matched for age, gender and school. They were evaluated using the Movement-ABC and performed three handwriting tasks on an electronic tablet that is part of a computerized system (ComPET - Computerized Penmanship Evaluation Tool). In addition, their teachers completed the Questionnaire for Assessing Students' Organizational Abilities-Teachers (QASOA-T) to assess the children's daily organizational ability. Significant group differences (DCD versus controls) were found for all handwriting kinematic measures across the three handwriting tasks and for the children's organizational abilities. Motor ability predicted a considerable percentage of the variance of the kinematic handwriting measures (30-37%), as well as a high percentage of the variance of their organizational abilities (67%). The coefficient of variance of the pen tilt added an additional 3% to the prediction of their organizational abilities. The results of this study exhibited deficient ability among children with DCD in organizing their behavior in varied real-world tasks requiring generation and monitoring representation related to space and time. The significance of the results to understanding the performance mechanism and implication to the clinical field are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial visualization in physics problem solving.

PubMed

Kozhevnikov, Maria; Motes, Michael A; Hegarty, Mary

2007-07-08

Three studies were conducted to examine the relation of spatial visualization to solving kinematics problems that involved either predicting the two-dimensional motion of an object, translating from one frame of reference to another, or interpreting kinematics graphs. In Study 1, 60 physics-naíve students were administered kinematics problems and spatial visualization ability tests. In Study 2, 17 (8 high- and 9 low-spatial ability) additional students completed think-aloud protocols while they solved the kinematics problems. In Study 3, the eye movements of fifteen (9 high- and 6 low-spatial ability) students were recorded while the students solved kinematics problems. In contrast to high-spatial students, most low-spatial students did not combine two motion vectors, were unable to switch frames of reference, and tended to interpret graphs literally. The results of the study suggest an important relationship between spatial visualization ability and solving kinematics problems with multiple spatial parameters. 2007 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making

PubMed Central

Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

2015-01-01

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead. PMID:25999877

Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

PubMed

Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

2015-01-01

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

A Step Made Toward Designing Microelectromechanical System (MEMS) Structures With High Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.

2003-01-01

The mechanical design of microelectromechanical systems-particularly for micropower generation applications-requires the ability to predict the strength capacity of load-carrying components over the service life of the device. These microdevices, which typically are made of brittle materials such as polysilicon, show wide scatter (stochastic behavior) in strength as well as a different average strength for different sized structures (size effect). These behaviors necessitate either costly and time-consuming trial-and-error designs or, more efficiently, the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS. Over the years, the NASA Glenn Research Center s Life Prediction Branch has developed the CARES/Life probabilistic design methodology to predict the reliability of advanced ceramic components. In this study, done in collaboration with Johns Hopkins University, the ability of the CARES/Life code to predict the reliability of polysilicon microsized structures with stress concentrations is successfully demonstrated.

Associations between conceptual reasoning, problem solving, and adaptive ability in high-functioning autism.

PubMed

Williams, Diane L; Mazefsky, Carla A; Walker, Jon D; Minshew, Nancy J; Goldstein, Gerald

2014-11-01

Abstract thinking is generally highly correlated with problem-solving ability which is predictive of better adaptive functioning. Measures of conceptual reasoning, an ecologically-valid laboratory measure of problem-solving, and a report measure of adaptive functioning in the natural environment, were administered to children and adults with and without autism. The individuals with autism had weaker conceptual reasoning ability than individuals with typical development of similar age and cognitive ability. For the autism group, their flexible thinking scores were significantly correlated with laboratory measures of strategy formation and rule shifting and with reported overall adaptive behavior but not socialization scores. Therefore, in autism, flexibility of thought is potentially more important for adaptive functioning in the natural environment than conceptual reasoning or problem-solving.

Genomic prediction in contrast to a genome-wide association study in explaining heritable variation of complex growth traits in breeding populations of Eucalyptus.

PubMed

Müller, Bárbara S F; Neves, Leandro G; de Almeida Filho, Janeo E; Resende, Márcio F R; Muñoz, Patricio R; Dos Santos, Paulo E T; Filho, Estefano Paludzyszyn; Kirst, Matias; Grattapaglia, Dario

2017-07-11

The advent of high-throughput genotyping technologies coupled to genomic prediction methods established a new paradigm to integrate genomics and breeding. We carried out whole-genome prediction and contrasted it to a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for growth traits in breeding populations of Eucalyptus benthamii (n =505) and Eucalyptus pellita (n =732). Both species are of increasing commercial interest for the development of germplasm adapted to environmental stresses. Predictive ability reached 0.16 in E. benthamii and 0.44 in E. pellita for diameter growth. Predictive abilities using either Genomic BLUP or different Bayesian methods were similar, suggesting that growth adequately fits the infinitesimal model. Genomic prediction models using ~5000-10,000 SNPs provided predictive abilities equivalent to using all 13,787 and 19,506 SNPs genotyped in the E. benthamii and E. pellita populations, respectively. No difference was detected in predictive ability when different sets of SNPs were utilized, based on position (equidistantly genome-wide, inside genes, linkage disequilibrium pruned or on single chromosomes), as long as the total number of SNPs used was above ~5000. Predictive abilities obtained by removing relatedness between training and validation sets fell near zero for E. benthamii and were halved for E. pellita. These results corroborate the current view that relatedness is the main driver of genomic prediction, although some short-range historical linkage disequilibrium (LD) was likely captured for E. pellita. A GWAS identified only one significant association for volume growth in E. pellita, illustrating the fact that while genome-wide regression is able to account for large proportions of the heritability, very little or none of it is captured into significant associations using GWAS in breeding populations of the size evaluated in this study. This study provides further experimental data supporting positive prospects of using genome-wide data to capture large proportions of trait heritability and predict growth traits in trees with accuracies equal or better than those attainable by phenotypic selection. Additionally, our results document the superiority of the whole-genome regression approach in accounting for large proportions of the heritability of complex traits such as growth in contrast to the limited value of the local GWAS approach toward breeding applications in forest trees.

Did Columbus "Hypothesize" or "Predict" that if He Sailed Due West, He Would Arrive at the Indies?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor

2004-01-01

A review of the literature in science education shows that most students have difficulties in hypothetico-deductive reasoning. The author's objective in this study was to investigate the abilities of high school teachers and university teachers to understand the difference between the terms "hypothesis" and "prediction" in the…

The discriminative ability of waist circumference, body mass index and waist-to-hip ratio in identifying metabolic syndrome: Variations by age, sex and race.

PubMed

Cheong, Kee C; Ghazali, Sumarni M; Hock, Lim K; Subenthiran, Soobitha; Huey, Teh C; Kuay, Lim K; Mustapha, Feisul I; Yusoff, Ahmad F; Mustafa, Amal N

2015-01-01

Many studies have suggested that there is variation in the capabilities of BMI, WC and WHR in predicting cardiometabolic risk and that it might be confounded by gender, ethnicity and age group. The objective of this study is to examine the discriminative abilities of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) to predict two or more non-adipose components of the metabolic syndrome (high blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, low high density lipoprotein-cholesterol and high fasting plasma glucose) among the adult Malaysian population by gender, age group and ethnicity. Data from 2572 respondents (1044 men and 1528 women) aged 25-64 years who participated in the Non Communicable Disease Surveillance 2005/2006, a population-based cross sectional study, were analysed. Participants' socio-demographic details, anthropometric indices (BMI, WC and WHR), blood pressure, fasting lipid profile and fasting glucose level were assessed. Receiver operating characteristics curves analysis was used to evaluate the ability of each anthropometric index to discriminate MetS cases from non-MetS cases based on the area under the curve. Overall, WC had better discriminative ability than WHR for women but did not perform significantly better than BMI in both sexes, whereas BMI was better than WHR in women only. Waist circumference was a better discriminator of MetS compared to WHR in Malay men and women. Waist circumference and BMI performed better than WHR in Chinese women, men aged 25-34 years and women aged 35-44 years. The discriminative ability of BMI and WC is better than WHR for predicting two or more non-adipose components of MetS. Therefore, either BMI or WC measurements are recommended in screening for metabolic syndrome in routine clinical practice in the effort to combat cardiovascular disease and type II diabetes mellitus. Copyright © 2015 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of calculated and measured velocities near the tip of a model rotor blade at transonic speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tauber, M. E.; Owen, F. K.; Langhi, R. G.; Palmer, G. E.

1985-01-01

The ability of the ROT22 code to predict accurately the transonic flow field in the crucial region around and beyond the tip of a high speed rotor blade was assessed. The computations were compared with extensive laser velocimetry measurements made at zero advance ratio and tip Mach numbers of 0.85, 0.88, 0.90, and 0.95. The comparison between theory and experiment was made using 300 scans for the three orthogonal velocity components covering a volume having a height of over one blade chord, a width of nearly two chords, and a length ranging from about 1 to 1.6 chords, depending on the tip speeds. The good agreement between the calculated and measured velocities established the ability of the code to predict the off blade flow field at high tip speeds. This supplements previous comparisons where surface pressures were shown to be well predicted on two different tips at advance ratios to 0.45, especially at the critical 90 deg azimuth blade position. These results demonstrate that the ROT22 code can be used with confidence to predict the important tip region flow field including the occurrence, strength, and location of shock waves causing high drag and noise.

Trajectories of Self-Perceived Math Ability, Utility Value and Interest across Middle School as Predictors of High School Math Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petersen, Jennifer Lee; Hyde, Janet Shibley

2017-01-01

Although many studies have documented developmental change in mathematics motivation, little is known about how these trends predict math performance. A sample of 288 participants from the United States reported their perceived math ability, math utility value and math interest in 5th, 7th and 9th grades. Latent growth curve models estimated…

Sex differences in cognitive ageing: testing predictions derived from life-history theory in a dioecious nematode.

PubMed

Zwoinska, Martyna K; Kolm, Niclas; Maklakov, Alexei A

2013-12-01

Life-history theory maintains that organisms allocate limited resources to different traits to maximize fitness. Learning ability and memory are costly and known to trade-off with longevity in invertebrates. However, since the relationship between longevity and fitness often differs between the sexes, it is likely that sexes will differentially resolve the trade-off between learning and longevity. We used an established associative learning paradigm in the dioecious nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, which is sexually dimorphic for lifespan, to study age-related learning ability in males and females. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that females (the shorter-lived sex) show higher learning ability than males early in life but senesce faster. Indeed, young females outperformed young males in learning a novel association between an odour (butanone) and food (bacteria). However, while learning ability and offspring production declined rapidly with age in females, males maintained high levels of these traits until mid-age. These results not only demonstrate sexual dimorphism in age-related learning ability but also suggest that it conforms to predictions derived from the life-history theory. © 2013.

Prosodic development in middle childhood and adolescence in high-functioning autism.

PubMed

Lyons, Megan; Schoen Simmons, Elizabeth; Paul, Rhea

2014-04-01

The present study aims to investigate the perception and production of several domains of prosodic performance in a cross-sectional sample of preadolescents and adolescents with and without high-functioning autism (HFA). To look at the role of language abilities on prosodic performance, the HFA groups were subdivided based on "high" and "low" language performance on the Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals-Fourth Edition (CELF-4) (Semel, Wiig, & Secord). Social and cognitive abilities were also examined to determine their relationship to prosodic performance. No significant differences were seen in prosody scores in the younger versus older subgroups in typically developing (TD) group with age-appropriate language. There was small but significant improvement in performance with age in the groups with HFA. Comparing performance at each age level across diagnostic groups showed that preteens with HFA and higher language levels perform similarly to their TD peers on all prosodic tasks, whereas those with lower language skills scored significantly worse than both their higher language and TD peers when looking at composite perception and production findings. Teens with HFA showed no deficits on perception tasks; however, those with low language levels had difficulty on several production tasks when compared to the TD group. Regression analyses suggested that, for the preteen group with HFA, language was the strongest predictor of prosodic perception, whereas nonverbal IQ was most highly predictive of prosodic production. For adolescents with HFA, social skills significantly contributed to the prediction of prosodic perception and, along with language abilities, predicted prosodic production. Implications of these findings will be discussed. © 2014 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Encoding of Vicarious Reward Prediction in Anterior Cingulate Cortex and Relationship with Trait Empathy

PubMed Central

Apps, Matthew A.J.; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Viding, Essi

2015-01-01

Empathy—the capacity to understand and resonate with the experiences of others—can depend on the ability to predict when others are likely to receive rewards. However, although a plethora of research has examined the neural basis of predictions about the likelihood of receiving rewards ourselves, very little is known about the mechanisms that underpin variability in vicarious reward prediction. Human neuroimaging and nonhuman primate studies suggest that a subregion of the anterior cingulate cortex in the gyrus (ACCg) is engaged when others receive rewards. Does the ACCg show specialization for processing predictions about others' rewards and not one's own and does this specialization vary with empathic abilities? We examined hemodynamic responses in the human brain time-locked to cues that were predictive of a high or low probability of a reward either for the subject themselves or another person. We found that the ACCg robustly signaled the likelihood of a reward being delivered to another. In addition, ACCg response significantly covaried with trait emotion contagion, a necessary foundation for empathizing with other individuals. In individuals high in emotion contagion, the ACCg was specialized for processing others' rewards exclusively, but for those low in emotion contagion, this region also responded to information about the subject's own rewards. Our results are the first to show that the ACCg signals probabilistic predictions about rewards for other people and that the substantial individual variability in the degree to which the ACCg is specialized for processing others' rewards is related to trait empathy. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Successfully cooperating, competing, or empathizing with others can depend on our ability to predict when others are going to get something rewarding. Although many studies have examined how the brain processes rewards we will get ourselves, very little is known about vicarious reward processing. Here, we show that a subregion of the anterior cingulate cortex in the gyrus (ACCg) shows a degree of specialization for processing others' versus one's own rewards. However, the degree to which the ACCg is specialized varies with people's ability to empathize with others. This new insight into how vicarious rewards are processed in the brain and vary with empathy may be key for understanding disorders of social behavior, including psychopathy and autism. PMID:26446224

Genetic relations among procrastination, impulsivity, and goal-management ability: implications for the evolutionary origin of procrastination.

PubMed

Gustavson, Daniel E; Miyake, Akira; Hewitt, John K; Friedman, Naomi P

2014-06-01

Previous research has revealed a moderate and positive correlation between procrastination and impulsivity. However, little is known about why these two constructs are related. In the present study, we used behavior-genetics methodology to test three predictions derived from an evolutionary account that postulates that procrastination arose as a by-product of impulsivity: (a) Procrastination is heritable, (b) the two traits share considerable genetic variation, and (c) goal-management ability is an important component of this shared variation. These predictions were confirmed. First, both procrastination and impulsivity were moderately heritable (46% and 49%, respectively). Second, although the two traits were separable at the phenotypic level (r = .65), they were not separable at the genetic level (r genetic = 1.0). Finally, variation in goal-management ability accounted for much of this shared genetic variation. These results suggest that procrastination and impulsivity are linked primarily through genetic influences on the ability to use high-priority goals to effectively regulate actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Genetic Relations Among Procrastination, Impulsivity, and Goal-Management Ability: Implications for the Evolutionary Origin of Procrastination

PubMed Central

Gustavson, Daniel E.; Miyake, Akira; Hewitt, John K.; Friedman, Naomi P.

2014-01-01

Previous research has revealed a moderate positive correlation between procrastination and impulsivity. However, little is known about why these two constructs are related. This study used behavioral genetic methodology to test three predictions derived from an evolutionary account that postulates that procrastination arose as a by-product of impulsivity (Steel, 2010): (a) Procrastination is heritable; (b) the two traits share considerable genetic variation; and (c) goal-management ability is an important component of this shared variation. These predictions were confirmed. First, both procrastination and impulsivity were moderately heritable (46% and 49%, respectively). Second, although the two traits were separable at the phenotypic level (r=.65), they were not separable at the genetic level (rg=1.0). Finally, variation in goal-management ability accounted for much of this shared genetic variation. These results suggest that procrastination and impulsivity are linked primarily through genetic influences on the ability to use their high-priority goals effectively to regulate their action. PMID:24705635

Examining the "Matthew Effect" on the motivation and ability to make lifestyle changes in 217 heart rehabilitation patients.

PubMed

Mildestvedt, Thomas; Meland, Eivind

2007-01-01

Those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and people with emotional problems have a poorer prognosis for cardiovascular disease. The authors wanted to examine: (1) what effect household income, emotional status, high-risk smoking status, and severity of heart disease had on the ability of individuals to make dietary and exercise improvements after heart disease and (2) to what extent unfavourable lifestyle outcomes among disadvantaged people were mediated by motivational problems. A two-year follow-up study of the combined cohorts of a randomized controlled trial. Level of exercise and present dietary habits were measured at inclusion and after 6 and 24 months. Different motivational factors and emotional distress were measured during rehabilitation. Autonomous self-regulation was lowest among smokers (b = -0.31, p = 0.02) and female participants (b = 0.39, p = 0.004). Participants with high scores of emotional distress predicted lower motivation for all the measures. We found no association between socioeconomic status (household income) and the ability to perform lifestyle changes. Current smoking status predicted lower ability to obtain lifestyle changes on all measures. Emotional distress was related to lower ability to increase physical activity at 6 months' but not at 24 months' follow-up. The mediating effects of motivational factors were insignificant. The results of this study do not support the suspicion that preventive efforts accentuate the socioeconomic differences in cardiovascular health. Health-promotive efforts after heart disease should safeguard that high-risk groups such as smokers are not discouraged from improving their lifestyle in other areas.

Does adolescent risk taking imply weak executive function? A prospective study of relations between working memory performance, impulsivity, and risk taking in early adolescence.

PubMed

Romer, Daniel; Betancourt, Laura M; Brodsky, Nancy L; Giannetta, Joan M; Yang, Wei; Hurt, Hallam

2011-09-01

Studies of brain development suggest that the increase in risk taking observed during adolescence may be due to insufficient prefrontal executive function compared to a more rapidly developing subcortical motivation system. We examined executive function as assessed by working memory ability in a community sample of youth (n = 387, ages 10 to 12 at baseline) in three annual assessments to determine its relation to two forms of impulsivity (sensation seeking and acting without thinking) and a wide range of risk and externalizing behavior. Using structural equation modeling, we tested a model in which differential activation of the dorsal and ventral striatum produces imbalance in the function of these brain regions. For youth high in sensation seeking, both regions were predicted to develop with age. However, for youth high in the tendency to act without thinking, the ventral striatum was expected to dominate. The model predicted that working memory ability would exhibit (1) early weakness in youth high in acting without thinking but (2) growing strength in those high in sensation seeking. In addition, it predicted that (3) acting without thinking would be more strongly related to risk and externalizing behavior than sensation seeking. Finally, it predicted that (4) controlling for acting without thinking, sensation seeking would predict later increases in risky and externalizing behavior. All four of these predictions were confirmed. The results indicate that the rise in sensation seeking that occurs during adolescence is not accompanied by a deficit in executive function and therefore requires different intervention strategies from those for youth whose impulsivity is characterized by early signs of acting without thinking. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Using the American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination to predict board certification: a cautionary study.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew T; Biester, Thomas W; Buyske, Jo; Lewis, Frank R; Malangoni, Mark A

2014-01-01

Although designed as a low-stakes formative examination, the American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination (ABSITE) is often used in high-stakes decisions such as promotion, remediation, and retention owing to its perceived ability to predict the outcome of board certification. Because of the discrepancy between intent and use, the ability of ABSITE scores to predict passing the American Board of Surgery certification examinations was analyzed. All first-time American Board of Surgery qualifying examination (QE) examinees between 2006 and 2012 were reviewed. Examinees' postgraduate year (PGY) 1 and PGY5 ABSITE standard scores were linked to QE scores and pass/fail outcomes (n = 6912 and 6846, respectively) as well as first-time certifying examination (CE) pass/fail results (n = 1329). Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the utility of ABSITE scores to predict board certification scores and pass/fail outcomes. PGY1 ABSITE scores accounted for 22% of the variance in QE scores (p < 0.001). PGY5 scores were a slightly better predictor, accounting for 30% of QE score variance (p < 0.001). Analyses showed that selecting a PGY5 ABSITE score that maximized overall decision accuracy for predicting QE pass/fail outcomes (86% accuracy) resulted in 98% sensitivity, 13% specificity, a positive predictive value of 87%, and a negative predictive value of 57%. ABSITE scores were not predictive of success on the CE. ABSITE scores are a useful predictor of QE scores and outcomes but do not predict passing the CE. Although scoring well on the ABSITE is highly predictive of QE success, using low ABSITE scores to predict QE failure results in frequent decision errors. Program directors and other evaluators should use additional sources of information when making high-stakes decisions about resident performance. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic improvement of mastitis resistance: validation of somatic cell score and clinical mastitis as selection criteria.

PubMed

Odegård, J; Klemetsdal, G; Heringstad, B

2003-12-01

Mean daughter deviations for clinical mastitis among second-crop daughters were regressed on predicted transmitting abilities for clinical mastitis and lactation mean somatic cell score in first-crop daughters to validate the predictive ability of these traits as selection criteria for reduced incidence of clinical mastitis. A total of 321 sires had 684,897 second-crop daughters, while predicted transmitting abilities were calculated for 2159 sires, based on 495,681 records of first-crop daughters. Predictive ability, as a measure of efficiency of selection, was 23 to 43% higher for clinical mastitis than for lactation mean somatic cell score. Compared to single-trait selection, predictive ability improved 8 to 13% from utilizing information on both traits. The relative weight that should be assigned to standardized predicted transmitting abilities from univariate genetic analyses were 60 to 67% for clinical mastitis and 33 to 40% for lactation mean somatic cell score. No significant nonlinear genetic relationship between the two traits was found.

The Predictive Ability of IQ and Working Memory Scores in Literacy in an Adult Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alloway, Tracy Packiam; Gregory, David

2013-01-01

Literacy problems are highly prevalent and can persist into adulthood. Yet, the majority of research on the predictive nature of cognitive skills to literacy has primarily focused on development and adolescent populations. The aim of the present study was to extend existing research to investigate the roles of IQ scores and Working Memory…

Differential Prediction of Academic Achievement in Elementary and Junior High School by Sex.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, J. C.

This study examined differences in predicting achievement by sex on the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS) from the verbal, quantitative, and nonverbal scores on the Cognitive Abilities Test (CogAT). The sample (n=10,000) consisted of all students in Grades 2, 5, and 8 who completed both tests in fall 1984. Examinations of means and standard…

Predicting U.S. Army Reserve Unit Manning Using Market Demographics

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

develops linear regression , classification tree, and logistic regression models to determine the ability of the location to support manning requirements... logistic regression model delivers predictive results that allow decision-makers to identify locations with a high probability of meeting unit...manning requirements. The recommendation of this thesis is that the USAR implement the logistic regression model. 14. SUBJECT TERMS U.S

Predicting surface fuel models and fuel metrics using lidar and CIR imagery in a dense mixed conifer forest

Treesearch

Marek K. Jakubowksi; Qinghua Guo; Brandon Collins; Scott Stephens; Maggi Kelly

2013-01-01

We compared the ability of several classification and regression algorithms to predict forest stand structure metrics and standard surface fuel models. Our study area spans a dense, topographically complex Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest. We used clustering, regression trees, and support vector machine algorithms to analyze high density (average 9 pulses/m

Study of the Mutual Interaction Between a Wing Wake and an Encountering Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walden, A. B.; vanDam, C. P.

1996-01-01

In an effort to increase airport productivity, several wind-tunnel and flight-test programs are currently underway to determine safe reductions in separation standards between aircraft. These programs are designed to study numerous concepts from the characteristics and detection of wake vortices to the wake-vortex encounter phenomenon. As part of this latter effort, computational tools are being developed and utilized as a means of modeling and verifying wake-vortex hazard encounters. The objective of this study is to assess the ability of PMARC, a low-order potential-flow panel method, to predict the forces and moments imposed on a following business-jet configuration by a vortex interaction. Other issues addressed include the investigation of several wake models and their ability to predict wake shape and trajectory, the validity of the velocity field imposed on the following configuration, modeling techniques and the effect of the high-lift system and the empennage. Comparisons with wind-tunnel data reveal that PMARC predicts the characteristics for the clean wing-body following configuration fairly well. Non-linear effects produced by the addition of the high-lift system and empennage, however, are not so well predicted.

Risk factors for low receptive vocabulary abilities in the preschool and early school years in the longitudinal study of Australian children.

PubMed

Christensen, Daniel; Zubrick, Stephen R; Lawrence, David; Mitrou, Francis; Taylor, Catherine L

2014-01-01

Receptive vocabulary development is a component of the human language system that emerges in the first year of life and is characterised by onward expansion throughout life. Beginning in infancy, children's receptive vocabulary knowledge builds the foundation for oral language and reading skills. The foundations for success at school are built early, hence the public health policy focus on reducing developmental inequalities before children start formal school. The underlying assumption is that children's development is stable, and therefore predictable, over time. This study investigated this assumption in relation to children's receptive vocabulary ability. We investigated the extent to which low receptive vocabulary ability at 4 years was associated with low receptive vocabulary ability at 8 years, and the predictive utility of a multivariate model that included child, maternal and family risk factors measured at 4 years. The study sample comprised 3,847 children from the first nationally representative Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risks for low receptive vocabulary ability from 4-8 years and sensitivity-specificity analysis was used to examine the predictive utility of the multivariate model. In the multivariate model, substantial risk factors for receptive vocabulary delay from 4-8 years, in order of descending magnitude, were low receptive vocabulary ability at 4 years, low maternal education, and low school readiness. Moderate risk factors, in order of descending magnitude, were low maternal parenting consistency, socio-economic area disadvantage, low temperamental persistence, and NESB status. The following risk factors were not significant: One or more siblings, low family income, not reading to the child, high maternal work hours, and Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander ethnicity. The results of the sensitivity-specificity analysis showed that a well-fitted multivariate model featuring risks of substantive magnitude does not do particularly well in predicting low receptive vocabulary ability from 4-8 years.

Quantification of hazard prediction ability at hazard prediction training (Kiken-Yochi Training: KYT) by free-response receiver-operating characteristic (FROC) analysis.

PubMed

Hashida, Masahiro; Kamezaki, Ryousuke; Goto, Makoto; Shiraishi, Junji

2017-03-01

The ability to predict hazards in possible situations in a general X-ray examination room created for Kiken-Yochi training (KYT) is quantified by use of free-response receiver-operating characteristics (FROC) analysis for determining whether the total number of years of clinical experience, involvement in general X-ray examinations, occupation, and training each have an impact on the hazard prediction ability. Twenty-three radiological technologists (RTs) (years of experience: 2-28), four nurses (years of experience: 15-19), and six RT students observed 53 scenes of KYT: 26 scenes with hazardous points (hazardous points are those that might cause injury to patients) and 27 scenes without points. Based on the results of these observations, we calculated the alternative free-response receiver-operating characteristic (AFROC) curve and the figure of merit (FOM) to quantify the hazard prediction ability. The results showed that the total number of years of clinical experience did not have any impact on hazard prediction ability, whereas recent experience with general X-ray examinations greatly influenced this ability. In addition, the hazard prediction ability varied depending on the occupations of the observers while they were observing the same scenes in KYT. The hazard prediction ability of the radiologic technology students was improved after they had undergone patient safety training. This proposed method with FROC observer study enabled the quantification and evaluation of the hazard prediction capability, and the application of this approach to clinical practice may help to ensure the safety of examinations and treatment in the radiology department.

Predicting functional ability in mild cognitive impairment with the Dementia Rating Scale-2.

PubMed

Greenaway, Melanie C; Duncan, Noah L; Hanna, Sherrie; Smith, Glenn E

2012-06-01

We examined the utility of cognitive evaluation to predict instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and decisional ability in Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Sixty-seven individuals with single-domain amnestic MCI were administered the Dementia Rating Scale-2 (DRS-2) as well as the Everyday Cognition assessment form to assess functional ability. The DRS-2 Total Scores and Initiation/Perseveration and Memory subscales were found to be predictive of IADLs, with Total Scores accounting for 19% of the variance in IADL performance on average. In addition, the DRS-2 Initiation/Perseveration and Total Scores were predictive of ability to understand information, and the DRS-2 Conceptualization helped predict ability to communicate with others, both key variables in decision-making ability. These findings suggest that performance on the DRS-2, and specific subscales related to executive function and memory, is significantly related to IADLs in individuals with MCI. These cognitive measures are also associated with decision-making-related abilities in MCI.

Report on High School Characteristic Index Study at John Marshall High School - 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, Wilfred

The High School Characteristic Index (H.S.C.I.) was employed at a high school in Rochester to measure students' perceptions, as well as teachers' ability to predict students' perceptions, after black-white violence occurred in May, 1970. The 1970 results were compared with 1966 results of the H.S.C.I. at the same high school when a different…

The ability of in vitro antioxidant assays to predict the efficiency of a cod protein hydrolysate and brown seaweed extract to prevent oxidation in marine food model systems.

PubMed

Jónsdóttir, Rósa; Geirsdóttir, Margrét; Hamaguchi, Patricia Y; Jamnik, Polona; Kristinsson, Hordur G; Undeland, Ingrid

2016-04-01

The ability of different in vitro antioxidant assays to predict the efficiency of cod protein hydrolysate (CPH) and Fucus vesiculosus ethyl acetate extract (EA) towards lipid oxidation in haemoglobin-fortified washed cod mince and iron-containing cod liver oil emulsion was evaluated. The progression of oxidation was followed by sensory analysis, lipid hydroperoxides and thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS) in both systems, as well as loss of redness and protein carbonyls in the cod system. The in vitro tests revealed high reducing capacity, high DPPH radical scavenging properties and a high oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) value of the EA which also inhibited lipid and protein oxidation in the cod model system. The CPH had a high metal chelating capacity and was efficient against oxidation in the cod liver oil emulsion. The results indicate that the F. vesiculosus extract has a potential as an excellent natural antioxidant against lipid oxidation in fish muscle foods while protein hydrolysates are more promising for fish oil emulsions. The usefulness of in vitro assays to predict the antioxidative properties of new natural ingredients in foods thus depends on the knowledge about the food systems, particularly the main pro-oxidants present. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Genetic training of network using chaos concept: application to QSAR studies of vibration modes of tetrahedral halides.

PubMed

Lu, Qingzhang; Shen, Guoli; Yu, Ruqin

2002-11-15

The chaotic dynamical system is introduced in genetic algorithm to train ANN to formulate the CGANN algorithm. Logistic mapping as one of the most important chaotic dynamic mappings provides each new generation a high chance to hold GA's population diversity. This enhances the ability to overcome overfitting in training an ANN. The proposed CGANN has been used for QSAR studies to predict the tetrahedral modes (nu(1)(A1) and nu(2)(E)) of halides [MX(4)](epsilon). The frequencies predicted by QSAR were compared with those calculated by quantum chemistry methods including PM3, AM1, and MNDO/d. The possibility of improving the predictive ability of QSAR by including quantum chemistry parameters as feature variables has been investigated using tetrahedral tetrahalide examples. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting Depression among Patients with Diabetes Using Longitudinal Data. A Multilevel Regression Model.

PubMed

Jin, H; Wu, S; Vidyanti, I; Di Capua, P; Wu, B

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Depression is a common and often undiagnosed condition for patients with diabetes. It is also a condition that significantly impacts healthcare outcomes, use, and cost as well as elevating suicide risk. Therefore, a model to predict depression among diabetes patients is a promising and valuable tool for providers to proactively assess depressive symptoms and identify those with depression. This study seeks to develop a generalized multilevel regression model, using a longitudinal data set from a recent large-scale clinical trial, to predict depression severity and presence of major depression among patients with diabetes. Severity of depression was measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire PHQ-9 score. Predictors were selected from 29 candidate factors to develop a 2-level Poisson regression model that can make population-average predictions for all patients and subject-specific predictions for individual patients with historical records. Newly obtained patient records can be incorporated with historical records to update the prediction model. Root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were used to evaluate predictive accuracy of PHQ-9 scores. The study also evaluated the classification ability of using the predicted PHQ-9 scores to classify patients as having major depression. Two time-invariant and 10 time-varying predictors were selected for the model. Incorporating historical records and using them to update the model may improve both predictive accuracy of PHQ-9 scores and classification ability of the predicted scores. Subject-specific predictions (for individual patients with historical records) achieved RMSE about 4 and areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve about 0.9 and are better than population-average predictions. The study developed a generalized multilevel regression model to predict depression and demonstrated that using generalized multilevel regression based on longitudinal patient records can achieve high predictive ability.

Is Approximate Number Precision a Stable Predictor of Math Ability?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Libertus, Melissa E.; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2013-01-01

Previous research shows that children's ability to estimate numbers of items using their Approximate Number System (ANS) predicts later math ability. To more closely examine the predictive role of early ANS acuity on later abilities, we assessed the ANS acuity, math ability, and expressive vocabulary of preschoolers twice, six months apart. We…

Predicting Arithmetic Abilities: The Role of Preparatory Arithmetic Markers and Intelligence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stock, Pieter; Desoete, Annemie; Roeyers, Herbert

2009-01-01

Arithmetic abilities acquired in kindergarten are found to be strong predictors for later deficient arithmetic abilities. This longitudinal study (N = 684) was designed to examine if it was possible to predict the level of children's arithmetic abilities in first and second grade from their performance on preparatory arithmetic abilities in…

A Public-Private Partnership Develops and Externally Validates a 30-Day Hospital Readmission Risk Prediction Model

PubMed Central

Choudhry, Shahid A.; Li, Jing; Davis, Darcy; Erdmann, Cole; Sikka, Rishi; Sutariya, Bharat

2013-01-01

Introduction: Preventing the occurrence of hospital readmissions is needed to improve quality of care and foster population health across the care continuum. Hospitals are being held accountable for improving transitions of care to avert unnecessary readmissions. Advocate Health Care in Chicago and Cerner (ACC) collaborated to develop all-cause, 30-day hospital readmission risk prediction models to identify patients that need interventional resources. Ideally, prediction models should encompass several qualities: they should have high predictive ability; use reliable and clinically relevant data; use vigorous performance metrics to assess the models; be validated in populations where they are applied; and be scalable in heterogeneous populations. However, a systematic review of prediction models for hospital readmission risk determined that most performed poorly (average C-statistic of 0.66) and efforts to improve their performance are needed for widespread usage. Methods: The ACC team incorporated electronic health record data, utilized a mixed-method approach to evaluate risk factors, and externally validated their prediction models for generalizability. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied on the patient cohort and then split for derivation and internal validation. Stepwise logistic regression was performed to develop two predictive models: one for admission and one for discharge. The prediction models were assessed for discrimination ability, calibration, overall performance, and then externally validated. Results: The ACC Admission and Discharge Models demonstrated modest discrimination ability during derivation, internal and external validation post-recalibration (C-statistic of 0.76 and 0.78, respectively), and reasonable model fit during external validation for utility in heterogeneous populations. Conclusions: The ACC Admission and Discharge Models embody the design qualities of ideal prediction models. The ACC plans to continue its partnership to further improve and develop valuable clinical models. PMID:24224068

Occupational-level interactions between physical hazards and cognitive ability and skill requirements in predicting injury incidence rates.

PubMed

Ford, Michael T; Wiggins, Bryan K

2012-07-01

Interactions between occupational-level physical hazards and cognitive ability and skill requirements were examined as predictors of injury incidence rates as reported by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Based on ratings provided in the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database, results across 563 occupations indicate that physical hazards at the occupational level were strongly related to injury incidence rates. Also, as expected, the physical hazard-injury rate relationship was stronger among occupations with high cognitive ability and skill requirements. In addition, there was an unexpected main effect such that occupations with high cognitive ability and skill requirements had lower injury rates even after controlling for physical hazards. The main effect of cognitive ability and skill requirements, combined with the interaction with physical hazards, resulted in unexpectedly high injury rates for low-ability and low-skill occupations with low physical hazard levels. Substantive and methodological explanations for these interactions and their theoretical and practical implications are offered. Results suggest that organizations and occupational health and safety researchers and practitioners should consider the occupational level of analysis and interactions between physical hazards and cognitive requirements in future research and practice when attempting to understand and prevent injuries.

Predictors of Hearing-Aid Outcomes

PubMed Central

Johannesen, Peter T.; Pérez-González, Patricia; Blanco, José L.; Kalluri, Sridhar; Edwards, Brent

2017-01-01

Over 360 million people worldwide suffer from disabling hearing loss. Most of them can be treated with hearing aids. Unfortunately, performance with hearing aids and the benefit obtained from using them vary widely across users. Here, we investigate the reasons for such variability. Sixty-eight hearing-aid users or candidates were fitted bilaterally with nonlinear hearing aids using standard procedures. Treatment outcome was assessed by measuring aided speech intelligibility in a time-reversed two-talker background and self-reported improvement in hearing ability. Statistical predictive models of these outcomes were obtained using linear combinations of 19 predictors, including demographic and audiological data, indicators of cochlear mechanical dysfunction and auditory temporal processing skills, hearing-aid settings, working memory capacity, and pretreatment self-perceived hearing ability. Aided intelligibility tended to be better for younger hearing-aid users with good unaided intelligibility in quiet and with good temporal processing abilities. Intelligibility tended to improve by increasing amplification for low-intensity sounds and by using more linear amplification for high-intensity sounds. Self-reported improvement in hearing ability was hard to predict but tended to be smaller for users with better working memory capacity. Indicators of cochlear mechanical dysfunction, alone or in combination with hearing settings, did not affect outcome predictions. The results may be useful for improving hearing aids and setting patients’ expectations. PMID:28929903

Genomic Prediction and Association Mapping of Curd-Related Traits in Gene Bank Accessions of Cauliflower.

PubMed

Thorwarth, Patrick; Yousef, Eltohamy A A; Schmid, Karl J

2018-02-02

Genetic resources are an important source of genetic variation for plant breeding. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic prediction greatly facilitate the analysis and utilization of useful genetic diversity for improving complex phenotypic traits in crop plants. We explored the potential of GWAS and genomic prediction for improving curd-related traits in cauliflower ( Brassica oleracea var. botrytis ) by combining 174 randomly selected cauliflower gene bank accessions from two different gene banks. The collection was genotyped with genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) and phenotyped for six curd-related traits at two locations and three growing seasons. A GWAS analysis based on 120,693 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified a total of 24 significant associations for curd-related traits. The potential for genomic prediction was assessed with a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and BayesB. Prediction abilities ranged from 0.10 to 0.66 for different traits and did not differ between prediction methods. Imputation of missing genotypes only slightly improved prediction ability. Our results demonstrate that GWAS and genomic prediction in combination with GBS and phenotyping of highly heritable traits can be used to identify useful quantitative trait loci and genotypes among genetically diverse gene bank material for subsequent utilization as genetic resources in cauliflower breeding. Copyright © 2018 Thorwarth et al.

Predictive validity of the Work Ability Index and its individual items in the general population.

PubMed

Lundin, Andreas; Leijon, Ola; Vaez, Marjan; Hallgren, Mats; Torgén, Margareta

2017-06-01

This study assesses the predictive ability of the full Work Ability Index (WAI) as well as its individual items in the general population. The Work, Health and Retirement Study (WHRS) is a stratified random national sample of 25-75-year-olds living in Sweden in 2000 that received a postal questionnaire ( n = 6637, response rate = 53%). Current and subsequent sickness absence was obtained from registers. The ability of the WAI to predict long-term sickness absence (LTSA; ⩾ 90 consecutive days) during a period of four years was analysed by logistic regression, from which the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) was computed. There were 313 incident LTSA cases among 1786 employed individuals. The full WAI had acceptable ability to predict LTSA during the 4-year follow-up (AUC = 0.79; 95% CI 0.76 to 0.82). Individual items were less stable in their predictive ability. However, three of the individual items: current work ability compared with lifetime best, estimated work impairment due to diseases, and number of diagnosed current diseases, exceeded AUC > 0.70. Excluding the WAI item on number of days on sickness absence did not result in an inferior predictive ability of the WAI. The full WAI has acceptable predictive validity, and is superior to its individual items. For public health surveys, three items may be suitable proxies of the full WAI; current work ability compared with lifetime best, estimated work impairment due to diseases, and number of current diseases diagnosed by a physician.

Ability of the total strain version of strainrange partitioning to characterize thermomechanical fatigue behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltsman, James F.; Halford, Gary R.

1994-01-01

Strainrange partitioning (SRP) was originally developed on an inelastic strain basis for isothermal fatigue in the high-strain regime where the inelastic strainrange could be determined accurately. However, most power-generating equipment operates in the regime where the inelastic strains are small and difficult to determine with any degree of accuracy. This shortcoming led to the development of the total strain version of SRP (TS-SRP). Power-generating equipment seldom operates under isothermal conditions, and isothermal life prediction methods cannot be depended on to predict the lives of anisothermal cycles. To overcome this shortcoming, a method was proposed for extending TS-SRP to characterize anisothermal fatigue behavior and to predict the lives of thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) cycles using apppropriate anisothermal data. The viability of this method, referred to as TMF/TS-SRP, was demonstrated using TMF data for two high-temperature aerospace alloys. In this report, data from the literature are used to examine the ability of TMF/TS-SRP to characterize the failure and flow behavior of three low-strength, high-ductility alloys widely used for ground-based power-generating equipment. The three alloys are type 304 stainless steel, 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V steel, and 2.25Cr-1Mo steel. Because of the limited nature of the data, it was possible to evaluate the characterization, but not the predictive capability of TMF/TS-SRP.

Limited predictive ability of surrogate indices of insulin sensitivity/resistance in Asian-Indian men.

PubMed

Muniyappa, Ranganath; Irving, Brian A; Unni, Uma S; Briggs, William M; Nair, K Sreekumaran; Quon, Michael J; Kurpad, Anura V

2010-12-01

Insulin resistance is highly prevalent in Asian Indians and contributes to worldwide public health problems, including diabetes and related disorders. Surrogate measurements of insulin sensitivity/resistance are used frequently to study Asian Indians, but these are not formally validated in this population. In this study, we compared the ability of simple surrogate indices to accurately predict insulin sensitivity as determined by the reference glucose clamp method. In this cross-sectional study of Asian-Indian men (n = 70), we used a calibration model to assess the ability of simple surrogate indices for insulin sensitivity [quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), homeostasis model assessment (HOMA2-IR), fasting insulin-to-glucose ratio (FIGR), and fasting insulin (FI)] to predict an insulin sensitivity index derived from the reference glucose clamp method (SI(Clamp)). Predictive accuracy was assessed by both root mean squared error (RMSE) of prediction as well as leave-one-out cross-validation-type RMSE of prediction (CVPE). QUICKI, FIGR, and FI, but not HOMA2-IR, had modest linear correlations with SI(Clamp) (QUICKI: r = 0.36; FIGR: r = -0.36; FI: r = -0.27; P < 0.05). No significant differences were noted among CVPE or RMSE from any of the surrogate indices when compared with QUICKI. Surrogate measurements of insulin sensitivity/resistance such as QUICKI, FIGR, and FI are easily obtainable in large clinical studies, but these may only be useful as secondary outcome measurements in assessing insulin sensitivity/resistance in clinical studies of Asian Indians.

Cerebral oxygenation in traumatic brain injury; Can a non-invasive frequency domain near-infrared spectroscopy device detect changes in brain tissue oxygen tension as well as the established invasive monitor?

PubMed

Davies, David James; Clancy, Michael; Dehghani, Hamid; Lucas, Samuel John Edwin; Forcione, Mario; Yakoub, Kamal Makram; Belli, Antonio

2018-06-07

The cost and highly invasive nature of brain monitoring modality in traumatic brain injury patients currently restrict its utility to specialist neurological intensive care settings. We aim to test the abilities of a frequency domain near-infrared spectroscopy (FD-NIRS) device in predicting changes in invasively measured brain tissue oxygen tension. Individuals admitted to a United Kingdom specialist major trauma centre were contemporaneously monitored with an FD-NIRS device and invasively measured brain tissue oxygen tension probe. Area under the curve receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) statistical analysis was utilised to assess the predictive power of FD-NIRS in detecting both moderate and severe hypoxia (20 and 10 mmHg, respectively), as measured invasively. 16 individuals were prospectively recruited to the investigation. Severe hypoxic episodes were detected in 9 of these individuals, with the NIRS demonstrating a broad range of predictive abilities (AUROC 0.68-0.88) from relatively poor to good. Moderate hypoxic episodes were detected in seven individuals with similar predictive performance (AUROC 0.576 - 0.905). A variable performance in the predictive powers of this FD-NIRS device to detect changes in brain tissue oxygen was demonstrated. Consequently, this enhanced NIRS technology has not demonstrated sufficient ability to replace the established invasive measurement.

Association of Individual Characteristics with Teleoperation Performance.

PubMed

Pan, Dan; Zhang, Yijing; Li, Zhizhong; Tian, Zhiqiang

2016-09-01

A number of space activities (e.g., extravehicular astronaut rescue, cooperation in satellite services, space station supplies, and assembly) are implemented directly or assisted by remote robotic arms. Our study aimed to reveal those individual characteristics which could positively influence or even predict teleoperation performance of such a space robotic arm. There were 64 male volunteers without robot operation experience recruited for the study. Their individual characteristics were assessed, including spatial cognitive ability, cognitive style, and personality traits. The experimental tasks were three abstracted teleoperation tasks of a simulated space robotic arm: point aiming, line alignment, and obstacle avoidance. Teleoperation performance was measured from two aspects: task performance (completion time, extra distance moved, operation slips) and safety performance (collisions, joint limitations reached). The Pearson coefficients between individual characteristics and teleoperation performance were examined along with performance prediction models. It was found that the subjects with relatively high mental rotation ability or low neuroticism had both better task and safety performance (|r| = 0.212 ∼ 0.381). Subjects with relatively high perspective taking ability or high agreeableness had better task performance (r = -0.253; r = -0.249). Imagery subjects performed better than verbal subjects regarding both task and safety performance (|r| = 0.236 ∼ 0.290). Compared with analytic subjects, wholist subjects had better safety performance (r = 0.300). Additionally, extraverted subjects had better task performance (r = -0.259), but worse safety performance (r = 0.230). Those with high spatial cognitive ability, imagery and wholist cognitive style, low neuroticism, and high agreeableness were seen to have more advantages in working with the remote robotic arm. These results could be helpful to astronaut selection and training for space station missions. Pan D, Zhang Y, Li Z, Tian Z. Association of individual characteristics with teleoperation performance. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2016; 87(9):772-780.

On the value of aiming high: the causes and consequences of ambition.

PubMed

Judge, Timothy A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D

2012-07-01

Ambition is a commonly mentioned but poorly understood concept in social science research. We sought to contribute to understanding of the concept by developing and testing a model in which ambition is a middle-level trait (Cantor, 1990)-predicted by more distal characteristics but, due to its teleological nature, more proximally situated to predict career success. A 7-decade longitudinal sample of 717 high-ability individuals from the Terman life-cycle study (Terman, Sears, Cronbach, & Sears, 1989) was used in the current study. Results indicated that ambition was predicted by individual differences-conscientiousness, extraversion, neuroticism, and general mental ability-and a socioeconomic background variable: parents' occupational prestige. Ambition, in turn, was positively related to educational attainment, occupation prestige, and income. Ambition had significant total effects with all of the endogenous variables except mortality. Overall, the results support the thesis that ambition is a middle-level trait-related to but distinct from more distal individual difference variables-that has meaningful effects on career success. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Who Chooses STEM Careers? Using A Relative Cognitive Strength and Interest Model to Predict Careers in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics.

PubMed

Wang, Ming-Te; Ye, Feifei; Degol, Jessica Lauren

2017-08-01

Career aspirations in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) are formulated in adolescence, making the high school years a critical time period for identifying the cognitive and motivational factors that increase the likelihood of future STEM employment. While past research has mainly focused on absolute cognitive ability levels in math and verbal domains, the current study tested whether relative cognitive strengths and interests in math, science, and verbal domains in high school were more accurate predictors of STEM career decisions. Data were drawn from a national longitudinal study in the United States (N = 1762; 48 % female; the first wave during ninth grade and the last wave at age 33). Results revealed that in the high-verbal/high-math/high-science ability group, individuals with higher science task values and lower orientation toward altruism were more likely to select STEM occupations. In the low-verbal/moderate-math/moderate-science ability group, individuals with higher math ability and higher math task values were more likely to select STEM occupations. The findings suggest that youth with asymmetrical cognitive ability profiles are more likely to select careers that utilize their cognitive strengths rather than their weaknesses, while symmetrical cognitive ability profiles may grant youth more flexibility in their options, allowing their interests and values to guide their career decisions.

75 FR 80354 - Satellite Television Extension and Localism Act of 2010 and Satellite Home Viewer Extension and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-22

... Commission, adopts a point-to-point predictive model for determining the ability of individual locations to... predictive model for reliably and presumptively determining the ability of individual locations, through the... adopted a point-to-point predictive model for determining the ability of individual locations to receive...

Inferencing Processes After Right Hemisphere Brain Damage: Effects of Contextual Bias

PubMed Central

Blake, Margaret Lehman

2009-01-01

Purpose Comprehension deficits associated with right hemisphere brain damage (RHD) have been attributed to an inability to use context, but there is little direct evidence to support the claim. This study evaluated the effect of varying contextual bias on predictive inferencing by adults with RHD. Method Fourteen adults with no brain damage (NBD) and 14 with RHD read stories constructed with either high predictability or low predictability of a specific outcome. Reading time for a sentence that disconfirmed the target outcome was measured and compared with a control story context. Results Adults with RHD evidenced activation of predictive inferences only for highly predictive conditions, whereas NBD adults generated inferences in both high- and low-predictability stories. Adults with RHD were more likely than those with NBD to require additional time to integrate inferences in high-predictability conditions. The latter finding was related to working memory for the RHD group. Results are interpreted in light of previous findings obtained using the same stimuli. Conclusions RHD does not abolish the ability to use context. Evidence of predictive inferencing is influenced by task and strength of inference activation. Treatment considerations and cautions regarding interpreting results from one methodology are discussed. PMID:19252126

Numerical predictors of arithmetic success in grades 1-6.

PubMed

Lyons, Ian M; Price, Gavin R; Vaessen, Anniek; Blomert, Leo; Ansari, Daniel

2014-09-01

Math relies on mastery and integration of a wide range of simpler numerical processes and concepts. Recent work has identified several numerical competencies that predict variation in math ability. We examined the unique relations between eight basic numerical skills and early arithmetic ability in a large sample (N = 1391) of children across grades 1-6. In grades 1-2, children's ability to judge the relative magnitude of numerical symbols was most predictive of early arithmetic skills. The unique contribution of children's ability to assess ordinality in numerical symbols steadily increased across grades, overtaking all other predictors by grade 6. We found no evidence that children's ability to judge the relative magnitude of approximate, nonsymbolic numbers was uniquely predictive of arithmetic ability at any grade. Overall, symbolic number processing was more predictive of arithmetic ability than nonsymbolic number processing, though the relative importance of symbolic number ability appears to shift from cardinal to ordinal processing. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting space telerobotic operator training performance from human spatial ability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Andrew M.; Oman, Charles M.; Galvan, Raquel; Natapoff, Alan

2013-11-01

Our goal was to determine whether existing tests of spatial ability can predict an astronaut's qualification test performance after robotic training. Because training astronauts to be qualified robotics operators is so long and expensive, NASA is interested in tools that can predict robotics performance before training begins. Currently, the Astronaut Office does not have a validated tool to predict robotics ability as part of its astronaut selection or training process. Commonly used tests of human spatial ability may provide such a tool to predict robotics ability. We tested the spatial ability of 50 active astronauts who had completed at least one robotics training course, then used logistic regression models to analyze the correlation between spatial ability test scores and the astronauts' performance in their evaluation test at the end of the training course. The fit of the logistic function to our data is statistically significant for several spatial tests. However, the prediction performance of the logistic model depends on the criterion threshold assumed. To clarify the critical selection issues, we show how the probability of correct classification vs. misclassification varies as a function of the mental rotation test criterion level. Since the costs of misclassification are low, the logistic models of spatial ability and robotic performance are reliable enough only to be used to customize regular and remedial training. We suggest several changes in tracking performance throughout robotics training that could improve the range and reliability of predictive models.

Strategies to predict rheumatoid arthritis development in at-risk populations

PubMed Central

van der Helm-van Mil, Annette H.

2016-01-01

The development of RA is conceived as a multiple hit process and the more hits that are acquired, the greater the risk of developing clinically apparent RA. Several at-risk phases have been described, including the presence of genetic and environmental factors, RA-related autoantibodies and biomarkers and symptoms. Intervention in these preclinical phases may be more effective compared with intervention in the clinical phase. One prerequisite for preventive strategies is the ability to estimate an individual’s risk adequately. This review evaluates the ability to predict the risk of RA in the various preclinical stages. Present data suggest that a combination of genetic and environmental factors is helpful to identify persons at high risk of RA among first-degree relatives. Furthermore, a combination of symptoms, antibody characteristics and environmental factors has been shown to be relevant for risk prediction in seropositive arthralgia patients. Large prospective studies are needed to validate and improve risk prediction in preclinical disease stages. PMID:25096602

Characteristics of the first child predict the parents' probability of having another child.

PubMed

Jokela, Markus

2010-07-01

In a sample of 7,695 families in the prospective, nationally representative British Millennium Cohort Study, this study examined whether characteristics of the 1st-born child predicted parents' timing and probability of having another child within 5 years after the 1st child's birth. Infant temperament was assessed with the Carey Infant Temperament Scale (Carey, 1972; Carey & McDevitt, 1978) at age 9 months, childhood socioemotional and behavioral characteristics with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (Goodman, 2001), and childhood cognitive ability with the Bracken School Readiness Assessment (Bracken, 2002) test at age 3 years. Survival analysis modeling indicated that the 1st child's low reactivity to novelty in infancy, high prosociality, low conduct problems, and high cognitive ability in childhood were associated with increased probability of parents having another child. Except for reactivity to novelty, these associations became stronger with time. High emotional symptoms were also positively associated with childbearing, but this was likely to reflect reverse causality-that is, the effect of sibling birth on the 1st child's adjustment. The results suggest that child effects, particularly those related to the child's cognitive ability, adaptability to novelty, and prosocial behavior, may be relevant to parents' future childbearing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Text-Message Abbreviations and Language Skills in High School and University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Jonge, Sarah; Kemp, Nenagh

2012-01-01

This study investigated the use of text-message abbreviations (textisms) in Australian adolescents and young adults, and relations between textism use and literacy abilities. Fifty-two high school students aged 13-15 years, and 53 undergraduates aged 18-24 years, all users of predictive texting, translated conventional English sentences into…

Use of Neuropsychological Tests to Identify High School Students with Epilepsy Who Later Demonstrate Inadequate Performances in Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodrill, Carl B.; Clemmons, David

1984-01-01

Examined the validity of intellectual, neuropsychological, and emotional adjustment measures administered in high school in predicting vocational adjustment of 39 young adults with epilepsy. Results showed neuropsychological tests were the best predictors of later adjustment. Abilities were more related to final adjustment than variables…

Factors that Predict Participation in Choral Music for High-School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siebenaler, Dennis James

2006-01-01

Why do so few students continue to participate in choral music through high school? How do home influences, peers, prior music experiences and teachers, self-perceptions of ability, and musical experiences outside of school contribute to decisions concerning participation in school music? This study attempted to identify some of the factors and…

An Engine Research Program Focused on Low Pressure Turbine Aerodynamic Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castner, Raymond; Wyzykowski, John; Chiapetta, Santo; Adamczyk, John

2002-01-01

A comprehensive test program was performed in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland Ohio using a highly instrumented Pratt and Whitney Canada PW 545 turbofan engine. A key objective of this program was the development of a high-altitude database on small, high-bypass ratio engine performance and operability. In particular, the program documents the impact of altitude (Reynolds Number) on the aero-performance of the low-pressure turbine (fan turbine). A second objective was to assess the ability of a state-of-the-art CFD code to predict the effect of Reynolds number on the efficiency of the low-pressure turbine. CFD simulation performed prior and after the engine tests will be presented and discussed. Key findings are the ability of a state-of-the art CFD code to accurately predict the impact of Reynolds Number on the efficiency and flow capacity of the low-pressure turbine. In addition the CFD simulations showed the turbulent intensity exiting the low-pressure turbine to be high (9%). The level is consistent with measurements taken within an engine.

Computational materials design for energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozolins, Vidvuds

2013-03-01

General adoption of sustainable energy technologies depends on the discovery and development of new high-performance materials. For instance, waste heat recovery and electricity generation via the solar thermal route require bulk thermoelectrics with a high figure of merit (ZT) and thermal stability at high-temperatures. Energy recovery applications (e.g., regenerative braking) call for the development of rapidly chargeable systems for electrical energy storage, such as electrochemical supercapacitors. Similarly, use of hydrogen as vehicular fuel depends on the ability to store hydrogen at high volumetric and gravimetric densities, as well as on the ability to extract it at ambient temperatures at sufficiently rapid rates. We will discuss how first-principles computational methods based on quantum mechanics and statistical physics can drive the understanding, improvement and prediction of new energy materials. We will cover prediction and experimental verification of new earth-abundant thermoelectrics, transition metal oxides for electrochemical supercapacitors, and kinetics of mass transport in complex metal hydrides. Research has been supported by the US Department of Energy under grant Nos. DE-SC0001342, DE-SC0001054, DE-FG02-07ER46433, and DE-FC36-08GO18136.

Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

2017-09-01

This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

Effects of education and word reading on cognitive scores in a community-based sample of Spanish elders with diverse socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Contador, Israel; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix; Del Ser, Teodoro; Benito-León, Julián

2015-01-01

The influence of education and oral word-reading ability on cognitive performance was examined in a sample of 1510 nondemented elders differing in socioeconomic status (SES) from three Spanish communities. All individuals were enrolled in the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain, a population-based epidemiological study in central Spain. They completed a detailed demographic survey and a short standardized neuropsychological battery assessing psychomotor speed, attention, language, and memory. The Word Accentuation Test (WAT) was used as measure of oral reading ability. The influence of education and oral reading on cognitive performance was determined by multiple linear regression models, first controlling for demographics (age and sex), and subsequently for the WAT score and education. The contribution of socioeconomic conditions was addressed by stratifying the sample into groups of high and low SES. The WAT showed a significant independent effect on cognitive scores, generally greater than that predicted by demographics. The higher predictive power of oral word reading on cognitive scores compared to education was consistent across the three communities. Although the variance explained by WAT was very similar in areas with diverse SES (low vs. high), WAT scores accounted for slightly more variance in naming and memory tasks in low SES areas. In contrast, the variance explained by WAT was higher for verbal fluency and the Trail-Making Test in areas with high SES. Oral word-reading ability predicts cognitive performance better than years of education across individuals with different SES. The influence of WAT may be modulated by SES and cognitive task properties.

Robust Ultraviolet-Visible (UV-Vis) Partial Least-Squares (PLS) Models for Tannin Quantification in Red Wine.

PubMed

Aleixandre-Tudo, José Luis; Nieuwoudt, Helené; Aleixandre, José Luis; Du Toit, Wessel J

2015-02-04

The validation of ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectroscopy combined with partial least-squares (PLS) regression to quantify red wine tannins is reported. The methylcellulose precipitable (MCP) tannin assay and the bovine serum albumin (BSA) tannin assay were used as reference methods. To take the high variability of wine tannins into account when the calibration models were built, a diverse data set was collected from samples of South African red wines that consisted of 18 different cultivars, from regions spanning the wine grape-growing areas of South Africa with their various sites, climates, and soils, ranging in vintage from 2000 to 2012. A total of 240 wine samples were analyzed, and these were divided into a calibration set (n = 120) and a validation set (n = 120) to evaluate the predictive ability of the models. To test the robustness of the PLS calibration models, the predictive ability of the classifying variables cultivar, vintage year, and experimental versus commercial wines was also tested. In general, the statistics obtained when BSA was used as a reference method were slightly better than those obtained with MCP. Despite this, the MCP tannin assay should also be considered as a valid reference method for developing PLS calibrations. The best calibration statistics for the prediction of new samples were coefficient of correlation (R 2 val) = 0.89, root mean standard error of prediction (RMSEP) = 0.16, and residual predictive deviation (RPD) = 3.49 for MCP and R 2 val = 0.93, RMSEP = 0.08, and RPD = 4.07 for BSA, when only the UV region (260-310 nm) was selected, which also led to a faster analysis time. In addition, a difference in the results obtained when the predictive ability of the classifying variables vintage, cultivar, or commercial versus experimental wines was studied suggests that tannin composition is highly affected by many factors. This study also discusses the correlations in tannin values between the methylcellulose and protein precipitation methods.

Thinking and feeling in the People's Republic of China: testing the generality of the "laws of emotion".

PubMed

Brown, Jonathon D; Cai, Huajian

2010-04-01

Cognitive theories of emotion assert that emotional reactions to events depend on the manner in which events are interpreted and appraised. From this perspective, the same outcome can produce different emotions. For example, a score of 85% on a test can evoke positive feelings if it is considered a success or negative feelings if it is considered a failure. Among the various appraisal dimensions that have been identified, causal attributions are thought to play a particularly influential role in shaping emotional reactions to various events. For example, success can evoke pride if it is attributed to high ability, gratitude if it is attributed to help from others, relief if it is attributed to a stroke of good fortune, or guilt if it is attained fraudulently or at the expense of others. These cognitive-affective linkages are thought to be universal. In this paper, we report two studies that tested the cross-cultural generality of some of these assumptions. In Study 1, participants from the People's Republic of China were led to succeed or fail on an (alleged) test of their intelligence and creativity. Consistent with previous findings with Western samples, attributions to ability predicted participants' emotional reactions to their test performance, with high ability attributions linked to greater pride following success. In Study 2, we extended these findings with American and Chinese participants, using a different experimental manipulation of success and failure, and a measure of attributions to effort. For both cultural groups, attributions to ability (but not attributions to effort) predicted greater emotional reactions to success. We conclude that attribution-emotion linkages have cross-cultural validity, and that pride is maximized when success is attributed to high ability.

Reciprocal Relationships between Teacher Ratings of Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors in Adolescents with Different Levels of Cognitive Abilities.

PubMed

Morin, Alexandre J S; Arens, A Katrin; Maïano, Christophe; Ciarrochi, Joseph; Tracey, Danielle; Parker, Philip D; Craven, Rhonda G

2017-04-01

Are internalizing and externalizing behavior problems interrelated via mutually reinforcing relationships (with each behavior leading to increases over time in levels of the other behavior) or mutually suppressing relationships (with each behavior leading to decreases over time in levels of the other behavior)? Past research on the directionality of these relationships has led to ambiguous results, particularly in adolescence. Furthermore, the extent to which prior results will generalize to adolescents with low levels of cognitive abilities remains unknown. This second limit is particularly important, given that these adolescents are known to present higher levels of externalizing and internalizing behaviors than their peers with average-to-high levels of cognitive abilities, and that the mechanisms involved in the reciprocal relationships between these two types of behaviors may differ across both populations. This study examines the directionality of the longitudinal relationships between externalizing and internalizing behavior problems as rated by teachers across three measurement waves (corresponding to Grades 8-10) in matched samples of 138 adolescents (34.78 % girls) with low levels of cognitive abilities and 556 adolescents (44.88 % girls) with average-to-high levels of cognitive abilities. The results showed that the measurement structure was fully equivalent across time periods and groups of adolescents, revealing high levels of developmental stability in both types of problems, and moderately high levels of cross-sectional associations. Levels of both internalizing and externalizing behaviors were higher among adolescents with low levels of cognitive abilities relative to those with average-to-high levels of cognitive abilities. Finally, the predictive analyses revealed negative reciprocal longitudinal relationships (i.e., mutually suppressing relationships) between externalizing and internalizing problems, a result that was replicated within samples of adolescents with low, and average-to-high levels of cognitive ability.

Changes in Predictive Task Switching with Age and with Cognitive Load.

PubMed

Levy-Tzedek, Shelly

2017-01-01

Predictive control of movement is more efficient than feedback-based control, and is an important skill in everyday life. We tested whether the ability to predictively control movements of the upper arm is affected by age and by cognitive load. A total of 63 participants were tested in two experiments. In both experiments participants were seated, and controlled a cursor on a computer screen by flexing and extending their dominant arm. In Experiment 1, 20 young adults and 20 older adults were asked to continuously change the frequency of their horizontal arm movements, with the goal of inducing an abrupt switch between discrete movements (at low frequencies) and rhythmic movements (at high frequencies). We tested whether that change was performed based on a feed-forward (predictive) or on a feedback (reactive) control. In Experiment 2, 23 young adults performed the same task, while being exposed to a cognitive load half of the time via a serial subtraction task. We found that both aging and cognitive load diminished, on average, the ability of participants to predictively control their movements. Five older adults and one young adult under a cognitive load were not able to perform the switch between rhythmic and discrete movement (or vice versa). In Experiment 1, 40% of the older participants were able to predictively control their movements, compared with 70% in the young group. In Experiment 2, 48% of the participants were able to predictively control their movements with a cognitively loading task, compared with 70% in the no-load condition. The ability to predictively change a motor plan in anticipation of upcoming changes may be an important component in performing everyday functions, such as safe driving and avoiding falls.

Frailty Versus Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths and Injuries Initiative Fall Risk Score: Ability to Predict Future Falls.

PubMed

Crow, Rebecca S; Lohman, Matthew C; Pidgeon, Dawna; Bruce, Martha L; Bartels, Stephen J; Batsis, John A

2018-03-01

To compare the ability of frailty status to predict fall risk with that of community fall risk screening tools. Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal data from NHATS. National Health and Aging Trend Study (NHATS) 2011-2015. Individuals aged 65 and older (N = 7,392). Fall risk was defined according to the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths and Injuries (STEADI) initiative. Frailty was defined as exhaustion, weight loss, low activity, slow gait speed, and weak grip strength. Robust was defined as meeting 0 criteria, prefrailty as 1 or 2 criteria, and frailty as 3 or more criteria. Falls were self-reported and ascertained using NHATS subsequent rounds (2012-2015). We compared the ability of frailty to predict future falls with that of STEADI score, adjusting for age, race, sex, education, comorbidities, hearing and vision impairment, and disability. Of the 7,392 participants (58.5% female), there 3,545 (48.0%) were classified as being at low risk of falling, 2,966 (40.1%) as being at moderate risk, and 881 (11.9%) as being at high risk. The adjusted risk of falling over the 4 subsequent years was 2.5 times as great for the moderate-risk group (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.16-2.89) and almost 4 times as great (HR = 3.79, 95% CI = 2.76-5.21) for the high-risk group as for the low-risk group. Risk of falling was greater for those who were prefrail (HR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.16-1.55) and frail (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 0.94-1.54) than for those who were robust. STEADI score is a strong predictor of future falls. Addition of frailty status does not improve the ability of the STEADI measure to predict future falls. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Narrative Fiction and Expository Nonfiction Differentially Predict Verbal Ability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mar, Raymond A.; Rain, Marina

2015-01-01

Although reading is known to be an important contributor to language abilities, it is not yet well established whether different text genres are uniquely associated with verbal abilities. We examined how exposure to narrative fiction and expository nonfiction predict language ability among university students. Exposure was measured both with…

Dimensionality of brain networks linked to life-long individual differences in self-control.

PubMed

Berman, Marc G; Yourganov, Grigori; Askren, Mary K; Ayduk, Ozlem; Casey, B J; Gotlib, Ian H; Kross, Ethan; McIntosh, Anthony R; Strother, Stephen; Wilson, Nicole L; Zayas, Vivian; Mischel, Walter; Shoda, Yuichi; Jonides, John

2013-01-01

The ability to delay gratification in childhood has been linked to positive outcomes in adolescence and adulthood. Here we examine a subsample of participants from a seminal longitudinal study of self-control throughout a subject's life span. Self-control, first studied in children at age 4 years, is now re-examined 40 years later, on a task that required control over the contents of working memory. We examine whether patterns of brain activation on this task can reliably distinguish participants with consistently low and high self-control abilities (low versus high delayers). We find that low delayers recruit significantly higher-dimensional neural networks when performing the task compared with high delayers. High delayers are also more homogeneous as a group in their neural patterns compared with low delayers. From these brain patterns, we can predict with 71% accuracy, whether a participant is a high or low delayer. The present results suggest that dimensionality of neural networks is a biological predictor of self-control abilities.

Validation of self-reported figural drawing scales against anthropometric measurements in adults.

PubMed

Dratva, Julia; Bertelsen, Randi; Janson, Christer; Johannessen, Ane; Benediktsdóttir, Bryndis; Bråbäck, Lennart; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Forsberg, Bertil; Gislason, Thorarinn; Jarvis, Debbie; Jogi, Rain; Lindberg, Eva; Norback, Dan; Omenaas, Ernst; Skorge, Trude D; Sigsgaard, Torben; Toren, Kjell; Waatevik, Marie; Wieslander, Gundula; Schlünssen, Vivi; Svanes, Cecilie; Real, Francisco Gomez

2016-08-01

The aim of the present study was to validate figural drawing scales depicting extremely lean to extremely obese subjects to obtain proxies for BMI and waist circumference in postal surveys. Reported figural scales and anthropometric data from a large population-based postal survey were validated with measured anthropometric data from the same individuals by means of receiver-operating characteristic curves and a BMI prediction model. Adult participants in a Scandinavian cohort study first recruited in 1990 and followed up twice since. Individuals aged 38-66 years with complete data for BMI (n 1580) and waist circumference (n 1017). Median BMI and waist circumference increased exponentially with increasing figural scales. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses showed a high predictive ability to identify individuals with BMI > 25·0 kg/m2 in both sexes. The optimal figural scales for identifying overweight or obese individuals with a correct detection rate were 4 and 5 in women, and 5 and 6 in men, respectively. The prediction model explained 74 % of the variance among women and 62 % among men. Predicted BMI differed only marginally from objectively measured BMI. Figural drawing scales explained a large part of the anthropometric variance in this population and showed a high predictive ability for identifying overweight/obese subjects. These figural scales can be used with confidence as proxies of BMI and waist circumference in settings where objective measures are not feasible.

Watching novice action degrades expert motor performance: Causation between action production and outcome prediction of observed actions by humans

PubMed Central

Ikegami, Tsuyoshi; Ganesh, Gowrishankar

2014-01-01

Our social skills are critically determined by our ability to understand and appropriately respond to actions performed by others. However despite its obvious importance, the mechanisms enabling action understanding in humans have remained largely unclear. A popular but controversial belief is that parts of the motor system contribute to our ability to understand observed actions. Here, using a novel behavioral paradigm, we investigated this belief by examining a causal relation between action production, and a component of action understanding - outcome prediction, the ability of a person to predict the outcome of observed actions. We asked dart experts to watch novice dart throwers and predict the outcome of their throws. We modulated the feedbacks provided to them, caused a specific improvement in the expert's ability to predict watched actions while controlling the other experimental factors, and exhibited that a change (improvement) in their outcome prediction ability results in a progressive and proportional deterioration in the expert's own darts performance. This causal relationship supports involvement of the motor system in outcome prediction by humans of actions observed in others. PMID:25384755

Is there still a role for computed tomography and bone scintigraphy in prostate cancer staging? An analysis from the EUREKA-1 database.

PubMed

Gabriele, D; Collura, D; Oderda, M; Stura, I; Fiorito, C; Porpiglia, F; Terrone, C; Zacchero, M; Guiot, C; Gabriele, P

2016-04-01

According to the current guidelines, computed tomography (CT) and bone scintigraphy (BS) are optional in intermediate-risk and recommended in high-risk prostate cancer (PCa). We wonder whether it is time for these examinations to be dismissed, evaluating their staging accuracy in a large cohort of radical prostatectomy (RP) patients. To evaluate the ability of CT to predict lymph node involvement (LNI), we included 1091 patients treated with RP and pelvic lymph node dissection, previously staged with abdomino-pelvic CT. As for bone metastases, we included 1145 PCa patients deemed fit for surgery, previously staged with Tc-99m methylene diphosphonate planar BS. CT scan showed a sensitivity and specificity in predicting LNI of 8.8 and 98 %; subgroup analysis disclosed a significant association only for the high-risk subgroup of 334 patients (P 0.009) with a sensitivity of 11.8 % and positive predictive value (PPV) of 44.4 %. However, logistic multivariate regression analysis including preoperative risk factors excluded any additional predictive ability of CT even in the high-risk group (P 0.40). These data are confirmed by ROC curve analysis, showing a low AUC of 54 % for CT, compared with 69 % for Partin tables and 80 % for Briganti nomogram. BS showed some positivity in 74 cases, only four of whom progressed, while 49 patients with negative BS progressed during their follow-up, six of them immediately after surgery. According to our opinion, the role of CT and BS should be restricted to selected high-risk patients, while clinical predictive nomograms should be adopted for the surgical planning.

PredSTP: a highly accurate SVM based model to predict sequential cystine stabilized peptides.

PubMed

Islam, S M Ashiqul; Sajed, Tanvir; Kearney, Christopher Michel; Baker, Erich J

2015-07-05

Numerous organisms have evolved a wide range of toxic peptides for self-defense and predation. Their effective interstitial and macro-environmental use requires energetic and structural stability. One successful group of these peptides includes a tri-disulfide domain arrangement that offers toxicity and high stability. Sequential tri-disulfide connectivity variants create highly compact disulfide folds capable of withstanding a variety of environmental stresses. Their combination of toxicity and stability make these peptides remarkably valuable for their potential as bio-insecticides, antimicrobial peptides and peptide drug candidates. However, the wide sequence variation, sources and modalities of group members impose serious limitations on our ability to rapidly identify potential members. As a result, there is a need for automated high-throughput member classification approaches that leverage their demonstrated tertiary and functional homology. We developed an SVM-based model to predict sequential tri-disulfide peptide (STP) toxins from peptide sequences. One optimized model, called PredSTP, predicted STPs from training set with sensitivity, specificity, precision, accuracy and a Matthews correlation coefficient of 94.86%, 94.11%, 84.31%, 94.30% and 0.86, respectively, using 200 fold cross validation. The same model outperforms existing prediction approaches in three independent out of sample testsets derived from PDB. PredSTP can accurately identify a wide range of cystine stabilized peptide toxins directly from sequences in a species-agnostic fashion. The ability to rapidly filter sequences for potential bioactive peptides can greatly compress the time between peptide identification and testing structural and functional properties for possible antimicrobial and insecticidal candidates. A web interface is freely available to predict STP toxins from http://crick.ecs.baylor.edu/.

Verbal Ability and Persistent Offending: A Race-Specific Test of Moffitt's Theory

PubMed Central

Bellair, Paul E.; McNulty, Thomas L.; Piquero, Alex R.

2014-01-01

Theoretical questions linger over the applicability of the verbal ability model to African Americans and the social control theory hypothesis that educational failure mediates the effect of verbal ability on offending patterns. Accordingly, this paper investigates whether verbal ability distinguishes between offending groups within the context of Moffitt's developmental taxonomy. Questions are addressed with longitudinal data spanning childhood through young-adulthood from an ongoing national panel, and multinomial and hierarchical Poisson models (over-dispersed). In multinomial models, low verbal ability predicts membership in a life-course-persistent-oriented group relative to an adolescent-limited-oriented group. Hierarchical models indicate that verbal ability is associated with arrest outcomes among White and African American subjects, with effects consistently operating through educational attainment (high school dropout). The results support Moffitt's hypothesis that verbal deficits distinguish adolescent-limited- and life-course-persistent-oriented groups within race as well as the social control model of verbal ability. PMID:26924885

Nonparametric method for genomics-based prediction of performance of quantitative traits involving epistasis in plant breeding.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaochun; Ma, Ping; Mumm, Rita H

2012-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) procedures have proven useful in estimating breeding value and predicting phenotype with genome-wide molecular marker information. However, issues of high dimensionality, multicollinearity, and the inability to deal effectively with epistasis can jeopardize accuracy and predictive ability. We, therefore, propose a new nonparametric method, pRKHS, which combines the features of supervised principal component analysis (SPCA) and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regression, with versions for traits with no/low epistasis, pRKHS-NE, to high epistasis, pRKHS-E. Instead of assigning a specific relationship to represent the underlying epistasis, the method maps genotype to phenotype in a nonparametric way, thus requiring fewer genetic assumptions. SPCA decreases the number of markers needed for prediction by filtering out low-signal markers with the optimal marker set determined by cross-validation. Principal components are computed from reduced marker matrix (called supervised principal components, SPC) and included in the smoothing spline ANOVA model as independent variables to fit the data. The new method was evaluated in comparison with current popular methods for practicing GS, specifically RR-BLUP, BayesA, BayesB, as well as a newer method by Crossa et al., RKHS-M, using both simulated and real data. Results demonstrate that pRKHS generally delivers greater predictive ability, particularly when epistasis impacts trait expression. Beyond prediction, the new method also facilitates inferences about the extent to which epistasis influences trait expression.

Nonparametric Method for Genomics-Based Prediction of Performance of Quantitative Traits Involving Epistasis in Plant Breeding

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiaochun; Ma, Ping; Mumm, Rita H.

2012-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) procedures have proven useful in estimating breeding value and predicting phenotype with genome-wide molecular marker information. However, issues of high dimensionality, multicollinearity, and the inability to deal effectively with epistasis can jeopardize accuracy and predictive ability. We, therefore, propose a new nonparametric method, pRKHS, which combines the features of supervised principal component analysis (SPCA) and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) regression, with versions for traits with no/low epistasis, pRKHS-NE, to high epistasis, pRKHS-E. Instead of assigning a specific relationship to represent the underlying epistasis, the method maps genotype to phenotype in a nonparametric way, thus requiring fewer genetic assumptions. SPCA decreases the number of markers needed for prediction by filtering out low-signal markers with the optimal marker set determined by cross-validation. Principal components are computed from reduced marker matrix (called supervised principal components, SPC) and included in the smoothing spline ANOVA model as independent variables to fit the data. The new method was evaluated in comparison with current popular methods for practicing GS, specifically RR-BLUP, BayesA, BayesB, as well as a newer method by Crossa et al., RKHS-M, using both simulated and real data. Results demonstrate that pRKHS generally delivers greater predictive ability, particularly when epistasis impacts trait expression. Beyond prediction, the new method also facilitates inferences about the extent to which epistasis influences trait expression. PMID:23226325

Material Characterization for Ductile Fracture Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Michael R.

2000-01-01

The research summarized in this document provides valuable information for structural health evaluation of NASA infrastructure. Specifically, material properties are reported which will enable calibration of ductile fracture prediction methods for three high-toughness metallic materials and one aluminum alloy which can be found in various NASA facilities. The task of investigating these materials has also served to validate an overall methodology for ductile fracture prediction is currently being employed at NASA. In facilitating the ability to incorporate various materials into the prediction scheme, we have provided data to enable demonstration of the overall generality of the approach.

Predicting risk and outcomes for frail older adults: an umbrella review of frailty screening tools

PubMed Central

Apóstolo, João; Cooke, Richard; Bobrowicz-Campos, Elzbieta; Santana, Silvina; Marcucci, Maura; Cano, Antonio; Vollenbroek-Hutten, Miriam; Germini, Federico; Holland, Carol

2017-01-01

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background A scoping search identified systematic reviews on diagnostic accuracy and predictive ability of frailty measures in older adults. In most cases, research was confined to specific assessment measures related to a specific clinical model. Objectives To summarize the best available evidence from systematic reviews in relation to reliability, validity, diagnostic accuracy and predictive ability of frailty measures in older adults. Inclusion criteria Population Older adults aged 60 years or older recruited from community, primary care, long-term residential care and hospitals. Index test Available frailty measures in older adults. Reference test Cardiovascular Health Study phenotype model, the Canadian Study of Health and Aging cumulative deficit model, Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment or other reference tests. Diagnosis of interest Frailty defined as an age-related state of decreased physiological reserves characterized by an increased risk of poor clinical outcomes. Types of studies Quantitative systematic reviews. Search strategy A three-step search strategy was utilized to find systematic reviews, available in English, published between January 2001 and October 2015. Methodological quality Assessed by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for systematic reviews and research synthesis. Data extraction Two independent reviewers extracted data using the standardized data extraction tool designed for umbrella reviews. Data synthesis Data were only presented in a narrative form due to the heterogeneity of included reviews. Results Five reviews with a total of 227,381 participants were included in this umbrella review. Two reviews focused on reliability, validity and diagnostic accuracy; two examined predictive ability for adverse health outcomes; and one investigated validity, diagnostic accuracy and predictive ability. In total, 26 questionnaires and brief assessments and eight frailty indicators were analyzed, most of which were applied to community-dwelling older people. The Frailty Index was examined in almost all these dimensions, with the exception of reliability, and its diagnostic and predictive characteristics were shown to be satisfactory. Gait speed showed high sensitivity, but only moderate specificity, and excellent predictive ability for future disability in activities of daily living. The Tilburg Frailty Indicator was shown to be a reliable and valid measure for frailty screening, but its diagnostic accuracy was not evaluated. Screening Letter, Timed-up-and-go test and PRISMA 7 (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) demonstrated high sensitivity and moderate specificity for identifying frailty. In general, low physical activity, variously measured, was one of the most powerful predictors of future decline in activities of daily living. Conclusion Only a few frailty measures seem to be demonstrably valid, reliable and diagnostically accurate, and have good predictive ability. Among them, the Frailty Index and gait speed emerged as the most useful in routine care and community settings. However, none of the included systematic reviews provided responses that met all of our research questions on their own and there is a need for studies that could fill this gap, covering all these issues within the same study. Nevertheless, it was clear that no suitable tool for assessing frailty appropriately in emergency departments was identified. PMID:28398987

Age differences in proactive interference, working memory, and abstract reasoning

PubMed Central

Emery, Lisa; Hale, Sandra; Myerson, Joel

2008-01-01

It has been hypothesized that older adults are especially susceptible to proactive interference (PI), and that this may contribute to age differences in working memory performance. In young adults, individual differences in PI affect both working memory and reasoning ability, but the relations between PI, working memory, and reasoning in older adults have not been examined. In the current study, young, old, and very old adults performed a modified operation span task that induced several cycles of PI buildup and release, as well as two tests of abstract reasoning ability. Age differences in working memory scores increased as PI built up, consistent with the hypothesis that older adults are more susceptible to PI, but both young and older adults showed complete release from PI. Young adults' reasoning ability was best predicted by working memory performance under high-PI conditions, replicating Bunting (2006). In contrast, older adults' reasoning ability was best predicted by their working memory performance under low-PI conditions, thereby raising questions regarding the general role of susceptibility to PI in differences in higher cognitive function among older adults. PMID:18808252

Derivation and validation of in-hospital mortality prediction models in ischaemic stroke patients using administrative data.

PubMed

Lee, Jason; Morishima, Toshitaka; Kunisawa, Susumu; Sasaki, Noriko; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Ikai, Hiroshi; Imanaka, Yuichi

2013-01-01

Stroke and other cerebrovascular diseases are a major cause of death and disability. Predicting in-hospital mortality in ischaemic stroke patients can help to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches. Chart reviews provide important clinical information for mortality prediction, but are laborious and limiting in sample sizes. Administrative data allow for large-scale multi-institutional analyses but lack the necessary clinical information for outcome research. However, administrative claims data in Japan has seen the recent inclusion of patient consciousness and disability information, which may allow more accurate mortality prediction using administrative data alone. The aim of this study was to derive and validate models to predict in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for ischaemic stroke using administrative data. The sample consisted of 21,445 patients from 176 Japanese hospitals, who were randomly divided into derivation and validation subgroups. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed using 7- and 30-day and overall in-hospital mortality as dependent variables. Independent variables included patient age, sex, comorbidities upon admission, Japan Coma Scale (JCS) score, Barthel Index score, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, and admissions after hours and on weekends/public holidays. Models were developed in the derivation subgroup, and coefficients from these models were applied to the validation subgroup. Predictive ability was analysed using C-statistics; calibration was evaluated with Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) tests. All three models showed predictive abilities similar or surpassing that of chart review-based models. The C-statistics were highest in the 7-day in-hospital mortality prediction model, at 0.906 and 0.901 in the derivation and validation subgroups, respectively. For the 30-day in-hospital mortality prediction models, the C-statistics for the derivation and validation subgroups were 0.893 and 0.872, respectively; in overall in-hospital mortality prediction these values were 0.883 and 0.876. In this study, we have derived and validated in-hospital mortality prediction models for three different time spans using a large population of ischaemic stroke patients in a multi-institutional analysis. The recent inclusion of JCS, Barthel Index, and mRS scores in Japanese administrative data has allowed the prediction of in-hospital mortality with accuracy comparable to that of chart review analyses. The models developed using administrative data had consistently high predictive abilities for all models in both the derivation and validation subgroups. These results have implications in the role of administrative data in future mortality prediction analyses. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Analysis backpropagation methods with neural network for prediction of children's ability in psychomotoric

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhari, F.; Dhany, H. W.; Zarlis, M.; Sutarman

2018-03-01

A good age in optimizing aspects of development is at the age of 4-6 years, namely with psychomotor development. Psychomotor is broader, more difficult to monitor but has a meaningful value for the child's life because it directly affects his behavior and deeds. Therefore, there is a problem to predict the child's ability level based on psychomotor. This analysis uses backpropagation method analysis with artificial neural network to predict the ability of the child on the psychomotor aspect by generating predictions of the child's ability on psychomotor and testing there is a mean squared error (MSE) value at the end of the training of 0.001. There are 30% of children aged 4-6 years have a good level of psychomotor ability, excellent, less good, and good enough.

Prediction of the limit of detection of an optical resonant reflection biosensor.

PubMed

Hong, Jongcheol; Kim, Kyung-Hyun; Shin, Jae-Heon; Huh, Chul; Sung, Gun Yong

2007-07-09

A prediction of the limit of detection of an optical resonant reflection biosensor is presented. An optical resonant reflection biosensor using a guided-mode resonance filter is one of the most promising label-free optical immunosensors due to a sharp reflectance peak and a high sensitivity to the changes of optical path length. We have simulated this type of biosensor using rigorous coupled wave theory to calculate the limit of detection of the thickness of the target protein layer. Theoretically, our biosensor has an estimated ability to detect thickness change approximately the size of typical antigen proteins. We have also investigated the effects of the absorption and divergence of the incident light on the detection ability of the biosensor.

Electrical Resistance of SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites for Damage Detection and Life-Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Craig; Morscher, Gregory; Xia, Zhenhai

2009-01-01

Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are suitable for high temperature structural applications such as turbine airfoils and hypersonic thermal protection systems due to their low density high thermal conductivity. The employment of these materials in such applications is limited by the ability to accurately monitor and predict damage evolution. Current nondestructive methods such as ultrasound, x-ray, and thermal imaging are limited in their ability to quantify small scale, transverse, in-plane, matrix cracks developed over long-time creep and fatigue conditions. CMC is a multifunctional material in which the damage is coupled with the material s electrical resistance, providing the possibility of real-time information about the damage state through monitoring of resistance. Here, resistance measurement of SiC/SiC composites under mechanical load at both room temperature monotonic and high temperature creep conditions, coupled with a modal acoustic emission technique, can relate the effects of temperature, strain, matrix cracks, fiber breaks, and oxidation to the change in electrical resistance. A multiscale model can in turn be developed for life prediction of in-service composites, based on electrical resistance methods. Results of tensile mechanical testing of SiC/SiC composites at room and high temperatures will be discussed. Data relating electrical resistivity to composite constituent content, fiber architecture, temperature, matrix crack formation, and oxidation will be explained, along with progress in modeling such properties.

Brief Report: IQ Split Predicts Social Symptoms and Communication Abilities in High-Functioning Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

Wallace, Gregory L.; Sokoloff, Jennifer L.; Kenworthy, Lauren

2011-01-01

We investigated the relationship of discrepancies between VIQ and NVIQ (IQ split) to autism symptoms and adaptive behavior in a sample of high-functioning (mean FSIQ = 98.5) school-age children with autism spectrum disorders divided into three groups: discrepantly high VIQ (n = 18); discrepantly high NVIQ (n = 24); and equivalent VIQ and NVIQ (n = 36). Discrepantly high VIQ and NVIQ were associated with autism social symptoms but not communication symptoms or repetitive behaviors. Higher VIQ and NVIQ were associated with better adaptive communication but not socialization or Daily Living Skills. IQ discrepancy may be an important phenotypic marker in autism. Although better verbal abilities are associated with better functional outcomes in autism, discrepantly high VIQ in high-functioning children may also be associated with social difficulties. PMID:19572193

The Use of Interactive Methods in the Educational Process of the Higher Education Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutbiddinova, Rimma A.; Eromasova, Aleksandr? A.; Romanova, Marina A.

2016-01-01

The modernization of higher education and the transition to the new Federal Education Standards require a higher quality training of the graduates. The training of highly qualified specialists must meet strict requirements: a high level of professional competence, the developed communication skills, the ability to predict the results of one's own…

Attitudes and Motivation of Poor and Good Spellers: Broadening Planned Behavior Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sideridis, Georgios D.

2005-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to broaden planned behavior theory and examine its applicability to predict the academic achievement of students of low and high spelling ability. Two hundred fifty seven students, 54 low spellers and 203 high spellers from thirty elementary schools in northern Greece, participated in the study. Between groups…

School Engagement, Risky Peers, and Student-Teacher Relationships as Mediators of School Violence in Taiwanese Vocational versus Academically Oriented High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Ji-Kang; Astor, Ron Avi

2011-01-01

Educational tracking based on academic ability accounts for different school dynamics between vocational versus academically-oriented high schools in Taiwan. Many educational practitioners predict that the settings of vocational schools and academic schools mediate school violence in different ways. Alternatively, some researchers argue the actual…

High School Students' Informal Reasoning Regarding a Socio-Scientific Issue, with Relation to Scientific Epistemological Beliefs and Cognitive Structures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Ying-Tien; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2011-01-01

This study investigated the relationship among 68 high school students' scientific epistemological beliefs (SEBs), cognitive structures regarding nuclear power usage, and their informal reasoning regarding this issue. Moreover, the ability of students' SEBs as well as their cognitive structures for predicting their informal reasoning regarding…

Ability of Stress, Sense of Control, and Self-Theories to Predict Swedish High School Students' Final Grades

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ollfors, Marianne; Andersson, Sven Ingmar

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate self-theories (theories of intelligence, confidence in one's intelligence, internal attribution of failure, academic self-efficacy), specific control, and experiencing of stress by means of a questionnaire for 915 Swedish high school students. Factor analysis yielded 6 stress domains (Workload, Psychosocial…

Higher Language Ability is Related to Angular Gyrus Activation Increase During Semantic Processing, Independent of Sentence Incongruency.

PubMed

Van Ettinger-Veenstra, Helene; McAllister, Anita; Lundberg, Peter; Karlsson, Thomas; Engström, Maria

2016-01-01

This study investigates the relation between individual language ability and neural semantic processing abilities. Our aim was to explore whether high-level language ability would correlate to decreased activation in language-specific regions or rather increased activation in supporting language regions during processing of sentences. Moreover, we were interested if observed neural activation patterns are modulated by semantic incongruency similarly to previously observed changes upon syntactic congruency modulation. We investigated 27 healthy adults with a sentence reading task-which tapped language comprehension and inference, and modulated sentence congruency-employing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We assessed the relation between neural activation, congruency modulation, and test performance on a high-level language ability assessment with multiple regression analysis. Our results showed increased activation in the left-hemispheric angular gyrus extending to the temporal lobe related to high language ability. This effect was independent of semantic congruency, and no significant relation between language ability and incongruency modulation was observed. Furthermore, there was a significant increase of activation in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) bilaterally when the sentences were incongruent, indicating that processing incongruent sentences was more demanding than processing congruent sentences and required increased activation in language regions. The correlation of high-level language ability with increased rather than decreased activation in the left angular gyrus, a region specific for language processing, is opposed to what the neural efficiency hypothesis would predict. We can conclude that no evidence is found for an interaction between semantic congruency related brain activation and high-level language performance, even though the semantic incongruent condition shows to be more demanding and evoking more neural activation.

Higher Language Ability is Related to Angular Gyrus Activation Increase During Semantic Processing, Independent of Sentence Incongruency

PubMed Central

Van Ettinger-Veenstra, Helene; McAllister, Anita; Lundberg, Peter; Karlsson, Thomas; Engström, Maria

2016-01-01

This study investigates the relation between individual language ability and neural semantic processing abilities. Our aim was to explore whether high-level language ability would correlate to decreased activation in language-specific regions or rather increased activation in supporting language regions during processing of sentences. Moreover, we were interested if observed neural activation patterns are modulated by semantic incongruency similarly to previously observed changes upon syntactic congruency modulation. We investigated 27 healthy adults with a sentence reading task—which tapped language comprehension and inference, and modulated sentence congruency—employing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We assessed the relation between neural activation, congruency modulation, and test performance on a high-level language ability assessment with multiple regression analysis. Our results showed increased activation in the left-hemispheric angular gyrus extending to the temporal lobe related to high language ability. This effect was independent of semantic congruency, and no significant relation between language ability and incongruency modulation was observed. Furthermore, there was a significant increase of activation in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) bilaterally when the sentences were incongruent, indicating that processing incongruent sentences was more demanding than processing congruent sentences and required increased activation in language regions. The correlation of high-level language ability with increased rather than decreased activation in the left angular gyrus, a region specific for language processing, is opposed to what the neural efficiency hypothesis would predict. We can conclude that no evidence is found for an interaction between semantic congruency related brain activation and high-level language performance, even though the semantic incongruent condition shows to be more demanding and evoking more neural activation. PMID:27014040

What Specific Facets of Executive Function are Associated with Academic Functioning in Youth with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder?

PubMed Central

Langberg, Joshua M.; Dvorsky, Melissa R.; Evans, Steven W.

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the relation between ratings of Executive Function (EF) and academic functioning in a sample of 94 middle-school-aged youth with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD; Mage = 11.9; 78% male; 21% minority). This study builds on prior work by evaluating associations between multiple specific aspects of EF (e.g., working memory, inhibition, and planning and organization) as rated by both parents and teachers on the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF), with multiple academic outcomes, including school grades and homework problems. Further, this study examined the relationship between EF and academic outcomes above and beyond ADHD symptoms and controlled for a number of potentially important covariates, including intelligence and achievement scores. The EF Planning and Organization subscale as rated by both parents and teachers predicted school grades above and beyond symptoms of ADHD and relevant covariates. Parent ratings of youth’s ability to transition effectively between tasks/situations (Shift subscale) also predicted school grades. Parent-rated symptoms of inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity, and planning and organization abilities were significant in the final model predicting homework problems. In contrast, only symptoms of inattention and the Organization of Materials subscale from the BRIEF were significant in the teacher model predicting homework problems. Organization and planning abilities are highly important aspects academic functioning for middle-school-aged youth with ADHD. Implications of these findings for the measurement of EF, and organization and planning abilities in particular, are discussed along with potential implications for intervention. PMID:23640285

Predicting acute aquatic toxicity of structurally diverse chemicals in fish using artificial intelligence approaches.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Gupta, Shikha; Rai, Premanjali

2013-09-01

The research aims to develop global modeling tools capable of categorizing structurally diverse chemicals in various toxicity classes according to the EEC and European Community directives, and to predict their acute toxicity in fathead minnow using set of selected molecular descriptors. Accordingly, artificial intelligence approach based classification and regression models, such as probabilistic neural networks (PNN), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPN), radial basis function neural network (RBFN), support vector machines (SVM), gene expression programming (GEP), and decision tree (DT) were constructed using the experimental toxicity data. Diversity and non-linearity in the chemicals' data were tested using the Tanimoto similarity index and Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman statistics. Predictive and generalization abilities of various models constructed here were compared using several statistical parameters. PNN and GRNN models performed relatively better than MLPN, RBFN, SVM, GEP, and DT. Both in two and four category classifications, PNN yielded a considerably high accuracy of classification in training (95.85 percent and 90.07 percent) and validation data (91.30 percent and 86.96 percent), respectively. GRNN rendered a high correlation between the measured and model predicted -log LC50 values both for the training (0.929) and validation (0.910) data and low prediction errors (RMSE) of 0.52 and 0.49 for two sets. Efficiency of the selected PNN and GRNN models in predicting acute toxicity of new chemicals was adequately validated using external datasets of different fish species (fathead minnow, bluegill, trout, and guppy). The PNN and GRNN models showed good predictive and generalization abilities and can be used as tools for predicting toxicities of structurally diverse chemical compounds. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Metacognitive Prompting on Genetics Problem Solving Ability among High School Students in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aurah, Catherine Muhonja

Within the framework of social cognitive theory, the influence of self-efficacy beliefs and metacognitive prompting on genetics problem solving ability among high school students in Kenya was examined through a mixed methods research design. A quasi-experimental study, supplemented by focus group interviews, was conducted to investigate both the outcomes and the processes of students' genetics problem-solving ability. Focus group interviews substantiated and supported findings from the quantitative instruments. The study was conducted in 17 high schools in Western Province, Kenya. A total of 2,138 high school students were purposively sampled. A sub-sample of 48 students participated in focus group interviews to understand their perspectives and experiences during the study so as to corroborate the quantitative data. Quantitative data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, zero-order correlations, 2 x 2 factorial ANOVA,, and sequential hierarchical multiple regressions. Qualitative data were transcribed, coded, and reported thematically. Results revealed metacognitive prompts had significant positive effects on student problem-solving ability independent of gender. Self-efficacy and metacognitive prompting significantly predicted genetics problem-solving ability. Gender differences were revealed, with girls outperforming boys on the genetics problem-solving test. Furthermore, self-efficacy moderated the relationship between metacognitive prompting and genetics problem-solving ability. This study established a foundation for instructional methods for biology teachers and recommendations are made for implementing metacognitive prompting in a problem-based learning environment in high schools and science teacher education programs in Kenya.

Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance: a national prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tiffin, Paul A; Mwandigha, Lazaro M; Paton, Lewis W; Hesselgreaves, H; McLachlan, John C; Finn, Gabrielle M; Kasim, Adetayo S

2016-09-26

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) has been shown to have a modest but statistically significant ability to predict aspects of academic performance throughout medical school. Previously, this ability has been shown to be incremental to conventional measures of educational performance for the first year of medical school. This study evaluates whether this predictive ability extends throughout the whole of undergraduate medical study and explores the potential impact of using the test as a selection screening tool. This was an observational prospective study, linking UKCAT scores, prior educational attainment and sociodemographic variables with subsequent academic outcomes during the 5 years of UK medical undergraduate training. The participants were 6812 entrants to UK medical schools in 2007-8 using the UKCAT. The main outcome was academic performance at each year of medical school. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was also conducted, treating the UKCAT as a screening test for a negative academic outcome (failing at least 1 year at first attempt). All four of the UKCAT scale scores significantly predicted performance in theory- and skills-based exams. After adjustment for prior educational achievement, the UKCAT scale scores remained significantly predictive for most years. Findings from the ROC analysis suggested that, if used as a sole screening test, with the mean applicant UKCAT score as the cut-off, the test could be used to reject candidates at high risk of failing at least 1 year at first attempt. However, the 'number needed to reject' value would be high (at 1.18), with roughly one candidate who would have been likely to pass all years at first sitting being rejected for every higher risk candidate potentially declined entry on this basis. The UKCAT scores demonstrate a statistically significant but modest degree of incremental predictive validity throughout undergraduate training. Whilst the UKCAT could be considered a fairly crude screening tool for future academic performance, it may offer added value when used in conjunction with other selection measures. Future work should focus on the optimum role of such tests within the selection process and the prediction of post-graduate performance.

Surprise responses in the human brain demonstrate statistical learning under high concurrent cognitive demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Marta Isabel; Teng, Chee Leong James; Taylor, Jeremy Alexander; Rowe, Elise Genevieve; Mattingley, Jason Brett

2016-06-01

The ability to learn about regularities in the environment and to make predictions about future events is fundamental for adaptive behaviour. We have previously shown that people can implicitly encode statistical regularities and detect violations therein, as reflected in neuronal responses to unpredictable events that carry a unique prediction error signature. In the real world, however, learning about regularities will often occur in the context of competing cognitive demands. Here we asked whether learning of statistical regularities is modulated by concurrent cognitive load. We compared electroencephalographic metrics associated with responses to pure-tone sounds with frequencies sampled from narrow or wide Gaussian distributions. We showed that outliers evoked a larger response than those in the centre of the stimulus distribution (i.e., an effect of surprise) and that this difference was greater for physically identical outliers in the narrow than in the broad distribution. These results demonstrate an early neurophysiological marker of the brain's ability to implicitly encode complex statistical structure in the environment. Moreover, we manipulated concurrent cognitive load by having participants perform a visual working memory task while listening to these streams of sounds. We again observed greater prediction error responses in the narrower distribution under both low and high cognitive load. Furthermore, there was no reliable reduction in prediction error magnitude under high-relative to low-cognitive load. Our findings suggest that statistical learning is not a capacity limited process, and that it proceeds automatically even when cognitive resources are taxed by concurrent demands.

The effect of three different educational approaches on children's drawing ability: Steiner, Montessori and traditional.

PubMed

Cox, M V; Rowlands, A

2000-12-01

Although there is a national curriculum for art education in the UK there are also alternative approaches in the private sector. This paper addresses the issue of the effect of these approaches on children's drawing ability. To compare the drawing ability in three drawing tasks of children in Steiner, Montessori and traditional schools. The participants were 60 school children between the ages of 5;11 and 7;2. Twenty children were tested in each type of school. Each child completed three drawings: a free drawing, a scene and an observational drawing. As predicted, the free and scene drawings of children in the Steiner school were rated more highly than those of children in Montessori and traditional schools. Steiner children's use of colour was also rated more highly, although they did not use more colours than the other children. Steiner children used significantly more fantasy topics in their free drawings. Further observation indicated that the Steiner children were better at using the whole page and organising their drawings into a scene; their drawings were also more detailed. Contrary to previous research Montessori children did not draw more inanimate objects and geometrical shapes or fewer people than other children. Also, contrary to the prediction, Steiner children were significantly better rather than worse than other children at observational drawing. The results suggest that the approach to art education in Steiner schools is conducive not only to more highly rated imaginative drawings in terms of general drawing ability and use of colour but also to more accurate and detailed observational drawings.

Low verbal ability predicts later violence in adolescent boys with serious conduct problems.

PubMed

Manninen, Marko; Lindgren, Maija; Huttunen, Matti; Ebeling, Hanna; Moilanen, Irma; Kalska, Hely; Suvisaari, Jaana; Therman, Sebastian

2013-10-01

Delinquent adolescents are a known high-risk group for later criminality. Cognitive deficits correlate with adult criminality, and specific cognitive deficits might predict later criminality in the high-risk adolescents. This study aimed to explore the neuropsychological performance and predictors of adult criminal offending in adolescents with severe behavioural problems. Fifty-three adolescents (33 boys and 20 girls), aged 15-18 years, residing in a reform school due to serious conduct problems, were examined for neuropsychological profile and psychiatric symptoms. Results were compared with a same-age general population control sample, and used for predicting criminality 5 years after the baseline testing. The reform school adolescents' neuropsychological performance was weak on many tasks, and especially on the verbal domain. Five years after the baseline testing, half of the reform school adolescents had obtained a criminal record. Males were overrepresented in both any criminality (75% vs. 10%) and in violent crime (50% vs. 5%). When cognitive variables, psychiatric symptoms and background factors were used as predictors for later offending, low verbal intellectual ability turned out to be the most significant predictor of a criminal record and especially a record of violent crime. Neurocognitive deficits, especially in the verbal and attention domains, are common among delinquent adolescents. Among males, verbal deficits are the best predictors for later criminal offending and violence. Assessing verbal abilities among adolescent population with conduct problems might prove useful as a screening method for inclusion in specific therapies for aggression management.

Characteristics of construction firms at risk for future workers' compensation claims using administrative data systems, Washington State.

PubMed

Marcum, Jennifer L; Foley, Michael; Adams, Darrin; Bonauto, Dave

2018-06-01

Construction is high-hazard industry, and continually ranks among those with the highest workers' compensation (WC) claim rates in Washington State (WA). However, not all construction firms are at equal risk. We tested the ability to identify those construction firms most at risk for future claims using only administrative WC and unemployment insurance data. We collected information on construction firms with 10-50 average full time equivalent (FTE) employees from the WA unemployment insurance and WC data systems (n=1228). Negative binomial regression was used to test the ability of firm characteristics measured during 2011-2013 to predict time-loss claim rates in the following year, 2014. Claim rates in 2014 varied by construction industry groups, ranging from 0.7 (Land Subdivision) to 4.6 (Foundation, Structure, and Building Construction) claims per 100 FTE. Construction firms with higher average WC premium rates, a history of WC claims, increasing number of quarterly FTE, and lower average wage rates during 2011-2013 were predicted to have higher WC claim rates in 2014. We demonstrate the ability to leverage administrative data to identify construction firms predicted to have future WC claims. This study should be repeated to determine if these results are applicable to other high-hazard industries. Practical Applications: This study identified characteristics that may be used to further refine targeted outreach and prevention to construction firms at risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Perceived mathematical ability under challenge: a longitudinal perspective on sex segregation among STEM degree fields.

PubMed

Nix, Samantha; Perez-Felkner, Lara; Thomas, Kirby

2015-01-01

Students' perceptions of their mathematics ability vary by gender and seem to influence science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) degree choice. Related, students' perceptions during academic difficulty are increasingly studied in educational psychology, suggesting a link between such perceptions and task persistence. Despite interest in examining the gender disparities in STEM, these concepts have not been considered in tandem. In this manuscript, we investigate how perceived ability under challenge-in particular in mathematics domains-influences entry into the most sex-segregated and mathematics-intensive undergraduate degrees: physics, engineering, mathematics, and computer science (PEMC). Using nationally representative Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS) data, we estimate the influence of perceived ability under challenging conditions on advanced high school science course taking, selection of an intended STEM major, and specific major type 2 years after high school. Demonstrating the importance of specificity when discussing how gender influences STEM career pathways, the intersecting effects of gender and perceived ability under mathematics challenge were distinct for each scientific major category. Perceived ability under challenge in secondary school varied by gender, and was highly predictive of selecting PEMC and health sciences majors. Notably, women's 12th grade perceptions of their ability under mathematics challenge increased their probability of selecting PEMC majors over and above biology. In addition, gender moderated the effect of growth mindset on students' selection of health science majors. Perceptions of ability under challenge in general and verbal domains also influenced retention in and declaration of certain STEM majors. The implications of these results are discussed, with particular attention to access to advanced scientific coursework in high school and interventions aimed at enhancing young women's perceptions of their ability, in particular in response to the potentially inhibiting influence of stereotype threat on their pathways to scientific degrees.

Perceived mathematical ability under challenge: a longitudinal perspective on sex segregation among STEM degree fields

PubMed Central

Nix, Samantha; Perez-Felkner, Lara; Thomas, Kirby

2015-01-01

Students' perceptions of their mathematics ability vary by gender and seem to influence science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) degree choice. Related, students' perceptions during academic difficulty are increasingly studied in educational psychology, suggesting a link between such perceptions and task persistence. Despite interest in examining the gender disparities in STEM, these concepts have not been considered in tandem. In this manuscript, we investigate how perceived ability under challenge—in particular in mathematics domains—influences entry into the most sex-segregated and mathematics-intensive undergraduate degrees: physics, engineering, mathematics, and computer science (PEMC). Using nationally representative Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS) data, we estimate the influence of perceived ability under challenging conditions on advanced high school science course taking, selection of an intended STEM major, and specific major type 2 years after high school. Demonstrating the importance of specificity when discussing how gender influences STEM career pathways, the intersecting effects of gender and perceived ability under mathematics challenge were distinct for each scientific major category. Perceived ability under challenge in secondary school varied by gender, and was highly predictive of selecting PEMC and health sciences majors. Notably, women's 12th grade perceptions of their ability under mathematics challenge increased their probability of selecting PEMC majors over and above biology. In addition, gender moderated the effect of growth mindset on students' selection of health science majors. Perceptions of ability under challenge in general and verbal domains also influenced retention in and declaration of certain STEM majors. The implications of these results are discussed, with particular attention to access to advanced scientific coursework in high school and interventions aimed at enhancing young women's perceptions of their ability, in particular in response to the potentially inhibiting influence of stereotype threat on their pathways to scientific degrees. PMID:26113823

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs): A framework to support predictive toxicology

EPA Science Inventory

High throughput and in silico methods are providing the regulatory toxicology community with capacity to rapidly and cost effectively generate data concerning a chemical’s ability to initiate one or more biological perturbations that may culminate in an adverse ecological o...

Prediction: The Modern-Day Sport-Science and Sports-Medicine "Quest for the Holy Grail".

PubMed

McCall, Alan; Fanchini, Maurizio; Coutts, Aaron J

2017-05-01

In high-performance sport, science and medicine practitioners employ a variety of physical and psychological tests, training and match monitoring, and injury-screening tools for a variety of reasons, mainly to predict performance, identify talented individuals, and flag when an injury will occur. The ability to "predict" outcomes such as performance, talent, or injury is arguably sport science and medicine's modern-day equivalent of the "Quest for the Holy Grail." The purpose of this invited commentary is to highlight the common misinterpretation of studies investigating association to those actually analyzing prediction and to provide practitioners with simple recommendations to quickly distinguish between methods pertaining to association and those of prediction.

Validity of High-School Grades in Predicting Student Success beyond the Freshman Year: High-School Record vs. Standardized Tests as Indicators of Four-Year College Outcomes. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.6.07

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geiser, Saul; Santelices, Maria Veronica

2007-01-01

High-school grades are often viewed as an unreliable criterion for college admissions, owing to differences in grading standards across high schools, while standardized tests are seen as methodologically rigorous, providing a more uniform and valid yardstick for assessing student ability and achievement. The present study challenges that…

Investigating the running abilities of Tyrannosaurus rex using stress-constrained multibody dynamic analysis

PubMed Central

Pond, Stuart B.; Brassey, Charlotte A.; Manning, Philip L.; Bates, Karl T.

2017-01-01

The running ability of Tyrannosaurus rex has been intensively studied due to its relevance to interpretations of feeding behaviour and the biomechanics of scaling in giant predatory dinosaurs. Different studies using differing methodologies have produced a very wide range of top speed estimates and there is therefore a need to develop techniques that can improve these predictions. Here we present a new approach that combines two separate biomechanical techniques (multibody dynamic analysis and skeletal stress analysis) to demonstrate that true running gaits would probably lead to unacceptably high skeletal loads in T. rex. Combining these two approaches reduces the high-level of uncertainty in previous predictions associated with unknown soft tissue parameters in dinosaurs, and demonstrates that the relatively long limb segments of T. rex—long argued to indicate competent running ability—would actually have mechanically limited this species to walking gaits. Being limited to walking speeds contradicts arguments of high-speed pursuit predation for the largest bipedal dinosaurs like T. rex, and demonstrates the power of multiphysics approaches for locomotor reconstructions of extinct animals. PMID:28740745

Assimilation of Satellite Data in Regional Air Quality Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnider, Richard T.; Norris, William B.; Casey, Daniel; Pleim, Jonathan E.; Roselle, Shawn J.; Lapenta, William M.

1997-01-01

In terms of important uncertainty in regional-scale air-pollution models, probably no other aspect ranks any higher than the current ability to specify clouds and soil moisture on the regional scale. Because clouds in models are highly parameterized, the ability of models to predict the correct spatial and radiative characteristics is highly suspect and subject to large error. The poor representation of cloud fields from point measurements at National Weather Services stations and the almost total absence of surface moisture availability observations has made assimilation of these variables difficult to impossible. Yet, the correct inclusion of clouds and surface moisture are of first-order importance in regional-scale photochemistry.

Emotional support predicts more sickness absence and poorer self assessed work ability: a two-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Karlsson, Nadine; Skargren, Elisabeth; Kristenson, Margareta

2010-10-26

While back pain and stressful work environment are shown to be important causes of sickness absence the effect of psychosocial resources on sickness absence, and on self assessed work ability, is less commonly investigated. The aim of this study was to assess these associations in a two-year follow-up study. 341 working people aged 45 to 64, randomly drawn from the population, responded to a questionnaire at baseline and at a two-year follow-up. Poisson regression was used to analyse the association of psychosocial factors (psychosocial instruments on work environment, emotional support and psychological resources) and previous back pain (low back and/or neck) at baseline with sickness absence (spells and days) at follow-up, controlling for effects of age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol, occupation, disease and previous sickness absence. Logistic regression was used to study the associations of psychosocial factors and previous back pain at baseline with self assessed prognosis of poor work ability six months from follow-up. Finally, a multivariate analysis tested the independent effects of previous back pain and 3 psychosocial factors derived in a factor analysis: 1. work environment; 2. emotional support; 3. psychological resources, on work ability and absence days and spells. 80% of the sickness absence spells within the last 12 months before follow-up were short-term (≤ 14 days). In the final model, high emotional support predicted more sickness absence spells (RR 1.36; 1.11-1.67) and days (RR 1.68, 1.22-2.31). Previous back pain (OR 2.56; 1.13-5.81), high emotional support (OR 1.58; 1.02-2.46), and low psychological resources (OR 0.62; 0.44-0.89) were related to poorer self assessed prognosis of work ability at follow up. In a general middle aged working population high emotional support was related to more sickness absence and also poorer self assessed prognosis of work ability. Our findings suggest that both sickness absence and self assessed work ability are dependent of life outside work and can be affected by a person's close community.

Inhibition and Updating, but Not Switching, Predict Developmental Dyslexia and Individual Variation in Reading Ability

PubMed Central

Doyle, Caoilainn; Smeaton, Alan F.; Roche, Richard A. P.; Boran, Lorraine

2018-01-01

To elucidate the core executive function profile (strengths and weaknesses in inhibition, updating, and switching) associated with dyslexia, this study explored executive function in 27 children with dyslexia and 29 age matched controls using sensitive z-mean measures of each ability and controlled for individual differences in processing speed. This study found that developmental dyslexia is associated with inhibition and updating, but not switching impairments, at the error z-mean composite level, whilst controlling for processing speed. Inhibition and updating (but not switching) error composites predicted both dyslexia likelihood and reading ability across the full range of variation from typical to atypical. The predictive relationships were such that those with poorer performance on inhibition and updating measures were significantly more likely to have a diagnosis of developmental dyslexia and also demonstrate poorer reading ability. These findings suggest that inhibition and updating abilities are associated with developmental dyslexia and predict reading ability. Future studies should explore executive function training as an intervention for children with dyslexia as core executive functions appear to be modifiable with training and may transfer to improved reading ability. PMID:29892245

Do Teachers' Perceptions of Children's Math and Reading Related Ability and Effort Predict Children's Self-Concept of Ability in Math and Reading?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Upadyaya, Katja; Eccles, Jacquelynne

2015-01-01

This study investigated to what extent primary school teachers' perceptions of their students' ability and effort predict developmental changes in children's self-concepts of ability in math and reading after controlling for students' academic performance and general intelligence. Three cohorts (N?=?849) of elementary school children and their…

Intellectual functioning in old and very old age: cross-sectional results from the Berlin Aging Study.

PubMed

Lindenberger, U; Baltes, P B

1997-09-01

This study documents age trends, interrelations, and correlates of intellectual abilities in old and very old age (70-103 years) from the Berlin Aging Study (N = 516). Fourteen tests were used to assess 5 abilities: reasoning, memory, and perceptual speed from the mechanic (broad fluid) domain and knowledge and fluency from the pragmatic (broad crystallized) domain. Intellectual abilities had negative linear age relations, with more pronounced age reductions in mechanic than in pragmatic abilities. Interrelations among intellectual abilities were highly positive and did not follow the mechanic-pragmatic distinction. Sociobiographical indicators were less closely linked to intellectual functioning than sensory-sensorimotor variables, which predicted 59% of the total reliable variance in general intelligence. Results suggest that aging-induced biological factors are a prominent source of individual differences in intelligence in old and very old age.

An evaluation of the predictive performance of distributional models for flora and fauna in north-east New South Wales.

PubMed

Pearce, J; Ferrier, S; Scotts, D

2001-06-01

To use models of species distributions effectively in conservation planning, it is important to determine the predictive accuracy of such models. Extensive modelling of the distribution of vascular plant and vertebrate fauna species within north-east New South Wales has been undertaken by linking field survey data to environmental and geographical predictors using logistic regression. These models have been used in the development of a comprehensive and adequate reserve system within the region. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of models for 153 small reptile, arboreal marsupial, diurnal bird and vascular plant species for which independent evaluation data were available. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the relative operating characteristic curve to measure discrimination capacity. Good discrimination ability implies that a model's predictions provide an acceptable index of species occurrence. The discrimination capacity of 89% of the models was significantly better than random, with 70% of the models providing high levels of discrimination. Predictions generated by this type of modelling therefore provide a reasonably sound basis for regional conservation planning. The discrimination ability of models was highest for the less mobile biological groups, particularly the vascular plants and small reptiles. In the case of diurnal birds, poor performing models tended to be for species which occur mainly within specific habitats not well sampled by either the model development or evaluation data, highly mobile species, species that are locally nomadic or those that display very broad habitat requirements. Particular care needs to be exercised when employing models for these types of species in conservation planning.

Age differences in cognitive performance in later life: relationships to self-reported health and activity life style.

PubMed

Hultsch, D F; Hammer, M; Small, B J

1993-01-01

The predictive relationships among individual differences in self-reported physical health and activity life style and performance on an array of information processing and intellectual ability measures were examined. A sample of 484 men and women aged 55 to 86 years completed a battery of cognitive tasks measuring verbal processing time, working memory, vocabulary, verbal fluency, world knowledge, word recall, and text recall. Hierarchical regression was used to predict performance on these tasks from measures of self-reported physical health, alcohol and tobacco use, and level of participation in everyday activities. The results indicated: (a) individual differences in self-reported health and activity predicted performance on multiple cognitive measures; (b) self-reported health was more predictive of processing resource variables than knowledge-based abilities; (c) interaction effects indicated that participation in cognitively demanding activities was more highly related to performance on some measures for older adults than for middle-aged adults; and (d) age-related differences in performance on multiple measures were attenuated by partialing individual differences in self-reported health and activity.

Does the Suicide Assessment Scale predict risk of repetition? A prospective study of suicide attempters at a hospital emergency department.

PubMed

Waern, M; Sjöström, N; Marlow, T; Hetta, J

2010-11-01

To determine whether the modified version of the Suicide Assessment Scale (SUAS) can be utilised to predict risk of repeat suicidal behaviour. Hundred and sixty-five patients aged 18 to 68 years who were admitted to emergency wards after a suicide attempt were interviewed. Follow-up interviews (n=96) were carried out after 2 months. Associations between SUAS scores and repeat attempt (fatal/non-fatal) during the following 3 years were analysed and the instrument's ability to predict repetition was assessed. High SUAS score (>30) was associated with repetition. The ability of the SUAS to correctly predict repeat suicidal behaviour in the entire study group was low (AUC=0.65, 95% CI=0.56-0.74) but better for those (n=42) who reported ongoing psychiatric treatment at follow-up (AUC=0.78, 95% CI 0.63-0.94). Among the latter group, all with baseline SUAS scores >30 made repeats. The modified SUAS performed well as a screening instrument in psychiatric patients. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

PubMed

Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management

PubMed Central

Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004–2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper. PMID:29473007

Prediction of 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy using computational intelligence methods.

PubMed

Obrzut, Bogdan; Kusy, Maciej; Semczuk, Andrzej; Obrzut, Marzanna; Kluska, Jacek

2017-12-12

Computational intelligence methods, including non-linear classification algorithms, can be used in medical research and practice as a decision making tool. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of artificial intelligence models for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients with cervical cancer treated by radical hysterectomy. The data set was collected from 102 patients with cervical cancer FIGO stage IA2-IIB, that underwent primary surgical treatment. Twenty-three demographic, tumor-related parameters and selected perioperative data of each patient were collected. The simulations involved six computational intelligence methods: the probabilistic neural network (PNN), multilayer perceptron network, gene expression programming classifier, support vector machines algorithm, radial basis function neural network and k-Means algorithm. The prediction ability of the models was determined based on the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, as well as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The results of the computational intelligence methods were compared with the results of linear regression analysis as a reference model. The best results were obtained by the PNN model. This neural network provided very high prediction ability with an accuracy of 0.892 and sensitivity of 0.975. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of PNN was also high, 0.818. The outcomes obtained by other classifiers were markedly worse. The PNN model is an effective tool for predicting 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy.

High Strain Rate Deformation Modeling of a Polymer Matrix Composite. Part 2; Composite Micromechanical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.; Stouffer, Donald C.

1998-01-01

Recently applications have exposed polymer matrix composite materials to very high strain rate loading conditions, requiring an ability to understand and predict the material behavior under these extreme conditions. In this second paper of a two part report, a three-dimensional composite micromechanical model is described which allows for the analysis of the rate dependent, nonlinear deformation response of a polymer matrix composite. Strain rate dependent inelastic constitutive equations utilized to model the deformation response of a polymer are implemented within the micromechanics method. The deformation response of two representative laminated carbon fiber reinforced composite materials with varying fiber orientation has been predicted using the described technique. The predicted results compare favorably to both experimental values and the response predicted by the Generalized Method of Cells, a well-established micromechanics analysis method.

Modelling and prediction for chaotic fir laser attractor using rational function neural network.

PubMed

Cho, S

2001-02-01

Many real-world systems such as irregular ECG signal, volatility of currency exchange rate and heated fluid reaction exhibit highly complex nonlinear characteristic known as chaos. These chaotic systems cannot be retreated satisfactorily using linear system theory due to its high dimensionality and irregularity. This research focuses on prediction and modelling of chaotic FIR (Far InfraRed) laser system for which the underlying equations are not given. This paper proposed a method for prediction and modelling a chaotic FIR laser time series using rational function neural network. Three network architectures, TDNN (Time Delayed Neural Network), RBF (radial basis function) network and the RF (rational function) network, are also presented. Comparisons between these networks performance show the improvements introduced by the RF network in terms of a decrement in network complexity and better ability of predictability.

Sport Ability Beliefs, 2 x 2 Achievement Goals, and Intrinsic Motivation: The Moderating Role of Perceived Competence in Sport and Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, C. K. John; Liu, Woon Chia; Lochbaum, Marc R.; Stevenson, Sarah J.

2009-01-01

We examined whether perceived competence moderated the relationships between implicit theories, 2 x 2 achievement goals, and intrinsic motivation for sports and physical activity. We placed 309 university students into high and moderate perceived competence groups. When perceived competence was high, entity beliefs did not predict the…

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs): A framework to support predictive toxicology (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

High throughput and in silico methods are providing the regulatory toxicology community with capacity to rapidly and cost effectively generate data concerning a chemical’s ability to initiate one or more biological perturbations that may culminate in an adverse ecological o...

GIS and crop simulation modelling applications in climate change research

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The challenges that climate change presents humanity require an unprecedented ability to predict the responses of crops to environment and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and crop simulation models are two powerful and highly complementary tools that are increasingly used for such p...

Which employment interview skills best predict the employability of schizophrenic patients?

PubMed

Charisiou, J; Jackson, H J; Boyle, G J; Burgess, P M; Minas, I H; Joshua, S D

1989-06-01

To examine the effects of verbal and nonverbal interview microbehaviors and interview characteristics on employability, Simulated Employment Interviews were conducted with 46 psychiatric inpatients who each met the DSM-III criteria for a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Each interview was videotaped and shown to two raters, who generated independent ratings for six microbehaviors (eye-contact, facial gestures, body posture, verbal content, voice volume, and length of speech) and six subject characteristics (motivation, self-confidence, ability to communicate, manifest adjustment, manifest intelligence and overall interview skill). A panel of three Commonwealth Employment Service psychologists viewed the same videotaped interviews and generated employability ratings. Verbal and nonverbal microbehaviors were relatively independent while subject characteristics were highly interdependent. Microbehaviors and characteristics correlated at a high level. Of the 12 interview microbehaviors and characteristics, manifest adjustment and ability to communicate accounted for 64% of the total variance in predicting employability. Interviewees who were perceived as behaving in an adjusted manner and as being good communicators were rated as more employable.

Method for high-precision multi-layered thin film deposition for deep and extreme ultraviolet mirrors

DOEpatents

Ruffner, Judith Alison

1999-01-01

A method for coating (flat or non-flat) optical substrates with high-reflectivity multi-layer coatings for use at Deep Ultra-Violet ("DUV") and Extreme Ultra-Violet ("EUV") wavelengths. The method results in a product with minimum feature sizes of less than 0.10-.mu.m for the shortest wavelength (13.4-nm). The present invention employs a computer-based modeling and deposition method to enable lateral and vertical thickness control by scanning the position of the substrate with respect to the sputter target during deposition. The thickness profile of the sputter targets is modeled before deposition and then an appropriate scanning algorithm is implemented to produce any desired, radially-symmetric thickness profile. The present invention offers the ability to predict and achieve a wide range of thickness profiles on flat or figured substrates, i.e., account for 1/R.sup.2 factor in a model, and the ability to predict and accommodate changes in deposition rate as a result of plasma geometry, i.e., over figured substrates.

Individual differences in the dominance of interhemispheric connections predict cognitive ability beyond sex and brain size.

PubMed

Martínez, Kenia; Janssen, Joost; Pineda-Pardo, José Ángel; Carmona, Susanna; Román, Francisco Javier; Alemán-Gómez, Yasser; Garcia-Garcia, David; Escorial, Sergio; Quiroga, María Ángeles; Santarnecchi, Emiliano; Navas-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Desco, Manuel; Arango, Celso; Colom, Roberto

2017-07-15

Global structural brain connectivity has been reported to be sex-dependent with women having increased interhemispheric connectivity (InterHc) and men having greater intrahemispheric connectivity (IntraHc). However, (a) smaller brains show greater InterHc, (b) larger brains show greater IntraHc, and (c) women have, on average, smaller brains than men. Therefore, sex differences in brain size may modulate sex differences in global brain connectivity. At the behavioural level, sex-dependent differences in connectivity are thought to contribute to men-women differences in spatial and verbal abilities. But this has never been tested at the individual level. The current study assessed whether individual differences in global structural connectome measures (InterHc, IntraHc and the ratio of InterHc relative to IntraHc) predict spatial and verbal ability while accounting for the effect of sex and brain size. The sample included forty men and forty women, who did neither differ in age nor in verbal and spatial latent components defined by a broad battery of tests and tasks. High-resolution T 1 -weighted and diffusion-weighted images were obtained for computing brain size and reconstructing the structural connectome. Results showed that men had higher IntraHc than women, while women had an increased ratio InterHc/IntraHc. However, these sex differences were modulated by brain size. Increased InterHc relative to IntraHc predicted higher spatial and verbal ability irrespective of sex and brain size. The positive correlations between the ratio InterHc/IntraHc and the spatial and verbal abilities were confirmed in 1000 random samples generated by bootstrapping. Therefore, sex differences in global structural connectome connectivity were modulated by brain size and did not underlie sex differences in verbal and spatial abilities. Rather, the level of dominance of InterHc over IntraHc may be associated with individual differences in verbal and spatial abilities in both men and women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Academic performance, career potential, creativity, and job performance: can one construct predict them all?

PubMed

Kuncel, Nathan R; Hezlett, Sarah A; Ones, Deniz S

2004-01-01

This meta-analysis addresses the question of whether 1 general cognitive ability measure developed for predicting academic performance is valid for predicting performance in both educational and work domains. The validity of the Miller Analogies Test (MAT; W. S. Miller, 1960) for predicting 18 academic and work-related criteria was examined. MAT correlations with other cognitive tests (e.g., Raven's Matrices [J. C. Raven, 1965]; Graduate Record Examinations) also were meta-analyzed. The results indicate that the abilities measured by the MAT are shared with other cognitive ability instruments and that these abilities are generalizably valid predictors of academic and vocational criteria, as well as evaluations of career potential and creativity. These findings contradict the notion that intelligence at work is wholly different from intelligence at school, extending the voluminous literature that supports the broad importance of general cognitive ability (g).

Decoding the future from past experience: learning shapes predictions in early visual cortex.

PubMed

Luft, Caroline D B; Meeson, Alan; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

2015-05-01

Learning the structure of the environment is critical for interpreting the current scene and predicting upcoming events. However, the brain mechanisms that support our ability to translate knowledge about scene statistics to sensory predictions remain largely unknown. Here we provide evidence that learning of temporal regularities shapes representations in early visual cortex that relate to our ability to predict sensory events. We tested the participants' ability to predict the orientation of a test stimulus after exposure to sequences of leftward- or rightward-oriented gratings. Using fMRI decoding, we identified brain patterns related to the observers' visual predictions rather than stimulus-driven activity. Decoding of predicted orientations following structured sequences was enhanced after training, while decoding of cued orientations following exposure to random sequences did not change. These predictive representations appear to be driven by the same large-scale neural populations that encode actual stimulus orientation and to be specific to the learned sequence structure. Thus our findings provide evidence that learning temporal structures supports our ability to predict future events by reactivating selective sensory representations as early as in primary visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Prediction of Soil pH Hyperspectral Spectrum in Guanzhong Area of Shaanxi Province Based on PLS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jinbao; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Huanyuan; Cheng, Jie; Tong, Wei; Wei, Jing

2017-12-01

The soil pH of Fufeng County, Yangling County and Wugong County in Shaanxi Province was studied. The spectral reflectance was measured by ASD Field Spec HR portable terrain spectrum, and its spectral characteristics were analyzed. The first deviation of the original spectral reflectance of the soil, the second deviation, the logarithm of the reciprocal logarithm, the first order differential of the reciprocal logarithm and the second order differential of the reciprocal logarithm were used to establish the soil pH Spectral prediction model. The results showed that the correlation between the reflectance spectra after SNV pre-treatment and the soil pH was significantly improved. The optimal prediction model of soil pH established by partial least squares method was a prediction model based on the first order differential of the reciprocal logarithm of spectral reflectance. The principal component factor was 10, the decision coefficient Rc2 = 0.9959, the model root means square error RMSEC = 0.0076, the correction deviation SEC = 0.0077; the verification decision coefficient Rv2 = 0.9893, the predicted root mean square error RMSEP = 0.0157, The deviation of SEP = 0.0160, the model was stable, the fitting ability and the prediction ability were high, and the soil pH can be measured quickly.

A methodology for reduced order modeling and calibration of the upper atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Piyush M.; Linares, Richard

2017-10-01

Atmospheric drag is the largest source of uncertainty in accurately predicting the orbit of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurately predicting drag for objects that traverse LEO is critical to space situational awareness. Atmospheric models used for orbital drag calculations can be characterized either as empirical or physics-based (first principles based). Empirical models are fast to evaluate but offer limited real-time predictive/forecasting ability, while physics based models offer greater predictive/forecasting ability but require dedicated parallel computational resources. Also, calibration with accurate data is required for either type of models. This paper presents a new methodology based on proper orthogonal decomposition toward development of a quasi-physical, predictive, reduced order model that combines the speed of empirical and the predictive/forecasting capabilities of physics-based models. The methodology is developed to reduce the high dimensionality of physics-based models while maintaining its capabilities. We develop the methodology using the Naval Research Lab's Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter model and show that the diurnal and seasonal variations can be captured using a small number of modes and parameters. We also present calibration of the reduced order model using the CHAMP and GRACE accelerometer-derived densities. Results show that the method performs well for modeling and calibration of the upper atmosphere.

Diagnostic accuracy of liver fibrosis based on red cell distribution width (RDW) to platelet ratio with fibroscan in chronic hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, J.; Jones, F.

2018-03-01

Red cell Distribution Width (RDW) and platelet ratio (RPR) can predict liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B with relatively high accuracy. RPR was superior to other non-invasive methods to predict liver fibrosis, such as AST and ALT ratio, AST and platelet ratio Index and FIB-4. The aim of this study was to assess diagnostic accuracy liver fibrosis by using RDW and platelets ratio in chronic hepatitis B patients based on compared with Fibroscan. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Adam Malik Hospital from January-June 2015. We examine 34 patients hepatitis B chronic, screen RDW, platelet, and fibroscan. Data were statistically analyzed. The result RPR with ROC procedure has an accuracy of 72.3% (95% CI: 84.1% - 97%). In this study, the RPR had a moderate ability to predict fibrosis degree (p = 0.029 with AUC> 70%). The cutoff value RPR was 0.0591, sensitivity and spesificity were 71.4% and 60%, Positive Prediction Value (PPV) was 55.6% and Negative Predictions Value (NPV) was 75%, positive likelihood ratio was 1.79 and negative likelihood ratio was 0.48. RPR have the ability to predict the degree of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with moderate accuracy.

The Dose-Volume Relationship of Small Bowel Irradiation and Acute Grade 3 Diarrhea During Chemoradiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, John M.; Lockman, David; Yan Di

Purpose: Previous work has found a highly significant relationship between the irradiated small-bowel volume and development of Grade 3 small-bowel toxicity in patients with rectal cancer. This study tested the previously defined parameters in a much larger group of patients. Methods and Materials: A total of 96 consecutive patients receiving pelvic radiation therapy for rectal cancer had treatment planning computed tomographic scans with small-bowel contrast that allowed the small bowel to be outlined with calculation of a small-bowel dose-volume histogram for the initial intended pelvic treatment to 45 Gy. Patients with at least one parameter above the previously determined dose-volumemore » parameters were considered high risk, whereas those with all parameters below these levels were low risk. The grade of diarrhea and presence of liquid stool was determined prospectively. Results: There was a highly significant association with small-bowel dose-volume and Grade 3 diarrhea (p {<=} 0.008). The high-risk and low-risk parameters were predictive with Grade 3 diarrhea in 16 of 51 high-risk patients and in 4 of 45 low-risk patients (p = 0.01). Patients who had undergone irradiation preoperatively had a lower incidence of Grade 3 diarrhea than those treated postoperatively (18% vs. 28%; p = 0.31); however, the predictive ability of the high-risk/low-risk parameters was better for preoperatively (p = 0.03) than for postoperatively treated patients (p = 0.15). Revised risk parameters were derived that improved the overall predictive ability (p = 0.004). Conclusions: The highly significant dose-volume relationship and validity of the high-risk and low-risk parameters were confirmed in a large group of patients. The risk parameters provided better modeling for the preoperative patients than for the postoperative patients.« less

On the same wavelength: predictable language enhances speaker-listener brain-to-brain synchrony in posterior superior temporal gyrus.

PubMed

Dikker, Suzanne; Silbert, Lauren J; Hasson, Uri; Zevin, Jason D

2014-04-30

Recent research has shown that the degree to which speakers and listeners exhibit similar brain activity patterns during human linguistic interaction is correlated with communicative success. Here, we used an intersubject correlation approach in fMRI to test the hypothesis that a listener's ability to predict a speaker's utterance increases such neural coupling between speakers and listeners. Nine subjects listened to recordings of a speaker describing visual scenes that varied in the degree to which they permitted specific linguistic predictions. In line with our hypothesis, the temporal profile of listeners' brain activity was significantly more synchronous with the speaker's brain activity for highly predictive contexts in left posterior superior temporal gyrus (pSTG), an area previously associated with predictive auditory language processing. In this region, predictability differentially affected the temporal profiles of brain responses in the speaker and listeners respectively, in turn affecting correlated activity between the two: whereas pSTG activation increased with predictability in the speaker, listeners' pSTG activity instead decreased for more predictable sentences. Listeners additionally showed stronger BOLD responses for predictive images before sentence onset, suggesting that highly predictable contexts lead comprehenders to preactivate predicted words.

The science of tobacco addiction and cessation.

PubMed

2014-01-01

Over the past decade, researchers have found genetic variations that affect how nicotine, the main addictive component of tobacco, interacts with cells in the brain and how fast the body metabolizes it. Carrying a high-risk variant predicts a person's ability to snuff out their cigarettes for good. Genetic testing could help predict which smokers might benefit from nicotine replacement therapy or other prescription medications, much like sequencing of malignant tumors can point to the most effective cancer treatment.

Pathological gambling in Estonia: relationships with personality, self-esteem, emotional States and cognitive ability.

PubMed

Kaare, Pille-Riin; Mõttus, René; Konstabel, Kenn

2009-09-01

Due to changes in gambling accessibility during the last decade gambling has become more widespread in Estonia and the prevalence of pathological gambling has sharply increased. The present study attempts to identify psychological characteristics of Estonian pathological gamblers. It has been shown that a wide range of social, economic, and individual factors (e.g. personality traits and emotional states) predict the likelihood of becoming a pathological gambler. In the present study, pathological gamblers' (N = 33) personality traits, self-esteem, self-reported emotional states and cognitive ability were compared to the respective characteristics in a non-gambling control group (N = 42) matched for age, gender and educational level. It was found that compared to controls, pathological gamblers had higher scores on Neuroticism (especially on its immoderation facet) and lower scores on Conscientiousness (especially on its dutifulness and cautiousness facets) and on self-esteem scale. They reported more negative emotional states during the previous month (especially depression and anxiety). Finally, pathological gamblers had lower general cognitive ability. In a logistic regression model, the likelihood of being a pathological gambler was best predicted by high immoderation score and low cognitive ability.

Predicting absenteeism: screening for work ability or burnout.

PubMed

Schouteten, R

2017-01-01

In determining the predictors of occupational health problems, two factors can be distinguished: personal (work ability) factors and work-related factors (burnout, job characteristics). However, these risk factors are hardly ever combined and it is not clear whether burnout or work ability best predicts absenteeism. To relate measures of work ability, burnout and job characteristics to absenteeism as the indicators of occupational health problems. Survey data on work ability, burnout and job characteristics from a Dutch university were related to the absenteeism data from the university's occupational health and safety database in the year following the survey study. The survey contained the Work Ability Index (WAI), Utrecht Burnout Scale (UBOS) and seven job characteristics from the Questionnaire on Experience and Evaluation of Work (QEEW). There were 242 employees in the study group. Logistic regression analyses revealed that job characteristics did not predict absenteeism. Exceptional absenteeism was most consistently predicted by the WAI dimensions 'employees' own prognosis of work ability in two years from now' and 'mental resources/vitality' and the burnout dimension 'emotional exhaustion'. Other significant predictors of exceptional absenteeism frequency included estimated work impairment due to diseases (WAI) and feelings of depersonalization or emotional distance from the work (burnout). Absenteeism among university personnel was best predicted by a combination of work ability and burnout. As a result, measures to prevent absenteeism and health problems may best be aimed at improving an individual's work ability and/or preventing the occurrence of burnout. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of body mass index, waist circumference, and waist to height ratio in the prediction of hypertension and diabetes mellitus: Filipino-American women cardiovascular study.

PubMed

Battie, Cynthia A; Borja-Hart, Nancy; Ancheta, Irma B; Flores, Rene; Rao, Goutham; Palaniappan, Latha

2016-12-01

The relative ability of three obesity indices to predict hypertension (HTN) and diabetes (DM) and the validity of using Asian-specific thresholds of these indices were examined in Filipino-American women (FAW). Filipino-American women ( n  = 382), 40-65 years of age were screened for hypertension (HTN) and diabetes (DM) in four major US cities. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist circumference to height ratio (WHtR) were measured. ROC analyses determined that the three obesity measurements were similar in predicting HTN and DM (AUC: 0.6-0.7). The universal WC threshold of ≥ 35 in. missed 13% of the hypertensive patients and 12% of the diabetic patients. The Asian WC threshold of ≥ 31.5 in. increased detection of HTN and DM but with a high rate of false positives. The traditional BMI ≥ 25 kg/m 2 threshold missed 35% of those with hypertension and 24% of those with diabetes. The Asian BMI threshold improved detection but resulted in a high rate of false positives. The suggested WHtR cut-off of ≥ 0.5 missed only 1% of those with HTN and 0% of those with DM. The three obesity measurements had similar but modest ability to predict HTN and DM in FAW. Using Asian-specific thresholds increased accuracy but with a high rate of false positives. Whether FAW, especially at older ages, should be encouraged to reach these lower thresholds needs further investigation because of the high false positive rates.

Tall fescue forage mass in a grass-legume mixture: predicted efficiency of indirect selection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High fertilizer prices and improved environmental stewardship have increased interest in grass-legume mixed pastures. It has been hypothesized, but not validated, that the ecological combining ability between grasses and legumes can be improved by breeding specifically for mixture performance. Thi...

Parenting Styles, Adolescents' Attributions, and Educational Outcomes in Nine Heterogeneous High Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glasgow, Kristan L.; And Others

1997-01-01

Examined contemporaneous and predictive relations between parenting styles, adolescents' attributions, and educational outcomes. Found that adolescents who perceived their parents as nonauthoritative were more likely than peers to attribute achievement outcomes to external causes or low ability. The higher the proportion of dysfunctional…

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia during worry forecasts stress-related increases in psychological distress.

PubMed

Gouin, Jean-Philippe; Deschênes, Sonya S; Dugas, Michel J

2014-09-01

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) has been conceptualized as an index of emotion regulation abilities. Although resting RSA has been associated with both concurrent and prospective affective responses to stress, the impact of RSA reactivity on emotional responses to stress is inconsistent across studies. The type of emotional stimuli used to elicit these phasic RSA responses may influence the adaptive value of RSA reactivity. We propose that RSA reactivity to a personally relevant worry-based stressor might forecast future affective responses to stress. To evaluate whether resting RSA and RSA reactivity to worry inductions predict stress-related increases in psychological distress, an academic stress model was used to prospectively examine changes in psychological distress from the well-defined low- and high-stress periods. During the low-stress period, 76 participants completed self-report mood measures and had their RSA assessed during a resting baseline, free worry period and worry catastrophizing interview. Participants completed another mood assessment during the high-stress period. Results indicated that baseline psychological distress predicted larger decreases in RSA during the worry inductions. Lower resting RSA and greater RSA suppression to the worry inductions at baseline prospectively predicted larger increases in psychological distress from the low- to high-stress period, even after accounting for the impact of baseline distress on RSA. These results provide further evidence that RSA may represent a unique index of emotion regulation abilities in times of stress.

Language Ability Predicts the Development of Behavior Problems in Children

PubMed Central

Petersen, Isaac T.; Bates, John E.; D’Onofrio, Brian M.; Coyne, Claire A.; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Pettit, Gregory S.; Van Hulle, Carol A.

2013-01-01

Prior studies have suggested, but not fully established, that language ability is important for regulating attention and behavior. Language ability may have implications for understanding attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorders, as well as subclinical problems. This article reports findings from two longitudinal studies to test (a) whether language ability has an independent effect on behavior problems, and (b) the direction of effect between language ability and behavior problems. In Study 1 (N = 585), language ability was measured annually from ages 7 to 13 years by language subtests of standardized academic achievement tests administered at the children’s schools. Inattentive-hyperactive (I-H) and externalizing (EXT) problems were reported annually by teachers and mothers. In Study 2 (N = 11,506), language ability (receptive vocabulary) and mother-rated I-H and EXT problems were measured biannually from ages 4 to 12 years. Analyses in both studies showed that language ability predicted within-individual variability in the development of I-H and EXT problems over and above the effects of sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), and performance in other academic and intellectual domains (e.g., math, reading comprehension, reading recognition, and short-term memory [STM]). Even after controls for prior levels of behavior problems, language ability predicted later behavior problems more strongly than behavior problems predicted later language ability, suggesting that the direction of effect may be from language ability to behavior problems. The findings suggest that language ability may be a useful target for the prevention or even treatment of attention deficits and EXT problems in children. PMID:23713507

Assessment of Poisson, probit and linear models for genetic analysis of presence and number of black spots in Corriedale sheep.

PubMed

Peñagaricano, F; Urioste, J I; Naya, H; de los Campos, G; Gianola, D

2011-04-01

Black skin spots are associated with pigmented fibres in wool, an important quality fault. Our objective was to assess alternative models for genetic analysis of presence (BINBS) and number (NUMBS) of black spots in Corriedale sheep. During 2002-08, 5624 records from 2839 animals in two flocks, aged 1 through 6 years, were taken at shearing. Four models were considered: linear and probit for BINBS and linear and Poisson for NUMBS. All models included flock-year and age as fixed effects and animal and permanent environmental as random effects. Models were fitted to the whole data set and were also compared based on their predictive ability in cross-validation. Estimates of heritability ranged from 0.154 to 0.230 for BINBS and 0.269 to 0.474 for NUMBS. For BINBS, the probit model fitted slightly better to the data than the linear model. Predictions of random effects from these models were highly correlated, and both models exhibited similar predictive ability. For NUMBS, the Poisson model, with a residual term to account for overdispersion, performed better than the linear model in goodness of fit and predictive ability. Predictions of random effects from the Poisson model were more strongly correlated with those from BINBS models than those from the linear model. Overall, the use of probit or linear models for BINBS and of a Poisson model with a residual for NUMBS seems a reasonable choice for genetic selection purposes in Corriedale sheep. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Machine Learning to Improve the Effectiveness of ANRS in Predicting HIV Drug Resistance.

PubMed

Singh, Yashik

2017-10-01

Human immunodeficiency virus infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is one of the major burdens of disease in developing countries, and the standard-of-care treatment includes prescribing antiretroviral drugs. However, antiretroviral drug resistance is inevitable due to selective pressure associated with the high mutation rate of HIV. Determining antiretroviral resistance can be done by phenotypic laboratory tests or by computer-based interpretation algorithms. Computer-based algorithms have been shown to have many advantages over laboratory tests. The ANRS (Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA) is regarded as a gold standard in interpreting HIV drug resistance using mutations in genomes. The aim of this study was to improve the prediction of the ANRS gold standard in predicting HIV drug resistance. A genome sequence and HIV drug resistance measures were obtained from the Stanford HIV database (http://hivdb.stanford.edu/). Feature selection was used to determine the most important mutations associated with resistance prediction. These mutations were added to the ANRS rules, and the difference in the prediction ability was measured. This study uncovered important mutations that were not associated with the original ANRS rules. On average, the ANRS algorithm was improved by 79% ± 6.6%. The positive predictive value improved by 28%, and the negative predicative value improved by 10%. The study shows that there is a significant improvement in the prediction ability of ANRS gold standard.

The Role of Maladaptive Cognitions in Hypersexuality among Highly Sexually Active Gay and Bisexual Men

PubMed Central

Pachankis, John E.; Rendina, H. Jonathon; Ventuneac, Ana; Grov, Christian; Parsons, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Cognitive appraisals about sex may represent an important component of the maintenance and treatment of hypersexuality, but they are not currently represented in conceptual models of hypersexuality. Therefore, we validated a measure of maladaptive cognitions about sex and examined its unique ability to predict hypersexuality. Qualitative interviews with a pilot sample of 60 highly sexually active gay and bisexual men and expert review of items yielded a pool of 17 items regarding maladaptive cognitions about sex. A separate sample of 202 highly sexually active gay and bisexual men completed measures of sexual inhibition and excitation, impulsivity, emotional dysregulation, depression and anxiety, sexual compulsivity, the Hypersexual Disorder Screening Inventory proposed by the American Psychiatric Association’s DSM-5 Workgroup on Sexual and Gender Identity Disorders (2010). Factor analysis confirmed the presence of three subscales: perceived sexual needs, sexual costs, and sexual control efficacy. Structural equation modeling results were consistent with a cognitive model of hypersexuality whereby magnifying the necessity of sex and disqualifying the benefits of sex partially predicted minimized self-efficacy for controlling one’s sexual behavior, all of which predicted problematic hypersexuality. In multivariate logistic regression, disqualifying the benefits of sex predicted unique variance in hypersexuality, even after adjusting for the role of core constructs of existing research on hypersexuality, AOR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.02, 3.10. Results suggest the utility of a cognitive approach for better understanding hypersexuality and the importance of developing treatment approaches that encourage adaptive appraisals regarding the outcomes of sex and one’s ability to control his sexual behavior. PMID:24558123

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population: a 5-year prospective analysis.

PubMed

Fu, Shihui; Liu, Chunling; Luo, Leiming; Ye, Ping

2017-11-09

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to renal function decline are more significant in Chinese community-dwelling population without glomerular filtration rate (GFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and long-term prospective study is an optimal choice to explore this problem. Aim of this analysis was to observe this problem during the follow-up of 5 years. In a large medical check-up program in Beijing, there were 948 participants with renal function evaluated at baseline and follow-up of 5 years. Physical examinations were performed by well-trained physicians. Blood samples were analyzed by qualified technicians in central laboratory. Median rate of renal function decline was 1.46 (0.42-2.91) mL/min/1.73m 2 /year. Rapid decline of renal function had a prevalence of 23.5% (223 participants). Multivariate linear and Logistic regression analyses confirmed that age, sex, baseline GFR, homocysteine and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) had independently predictive abilities to renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p < 0.05 for all). High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), carotid femoral pulse wave velocity and central augmentation index had no statistically independent association with renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p > 0.05 for all). Homocysteine and NT-proBNP rather than hs-cTnT had independently predictive abilities to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population without GFR below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . Baseline GFR was an independent factor predicting the rapid decline of renal function. Arterial stiffness and compliance had no independent effect on rapid decline of renal function. This analysis has a significant implication for public health, and changing the homocysteine and NT-proBNP levels might slow the rapid decline of renal function.

Self-rated health is associated with subsequent functional decline among older adults in Japan.

PubMed

Hirosaki, Mayumi; Okumiya, Kiyohito; Wada, Taizo; Ishine, Masayuki; Sakamoto, Ryota; Ishimoto, Yasuko; Kasahara, Yoriko; Kimura, Yumi; Fukutomi, Eriko; Chen, Wen Ling; Nakatsuka, Masahiro; Fujisawa, Michiko; Otsuka, Kuniaki; Matsubayashi, Kozo

2017-09-01

Previous studies have reported that self-rated health (SRH) predicts subsequent mortality. However, less is known about the association between SRH and functional ability. The aim of this study was to examine whether SRH predicts decline in basic activities of daily living (ADL), even after adjustment for depression, among community-dwelling older adults in Japan. A three-year prospective cohort study was conducted among 654 residents aged 65 years and older without disability in performing basic ADL at baseline. SRH was assessed using a visual analogue scale (range; 0-100), and dichotomized into low and high groups. Information on functional ability, sociodemographic factors, depressive symptoms, and medical conditions were obtained using a self-administered questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between baseline SRH and functional decline three years later. One hundred and eight (16.5%) participants reported a decline in basic ADL at the three-year follow-up. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the low SRH group had a higher risk for functional decline compared to the high SRH group, even after controlling for potential confounding factors (odds ratio (OR) = 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3-4.4). Furthermore, a 10-point difference in SRH score was associated with subsequent functional decline (OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.16-1.61). SRH was an independent predictor of functional decline. SRH could be a simple assessment tool for predicting the loss or maintenance of functional ability in community-dwelling older adults. Positive self-evaluation might be useful to maintain an active lifestyle and stay healthy.

Initial Cognitive Performance Predicts Longitudinal Aviator Performance

PubMed Central

Jo, Booil; Adamson, Maheen M.; Kennedy, Quinn; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Zeitzer, Jamie M.; Friedman, Leah F.; Fairchild, Kaci; Scanlon, Blake K.; Murphy, Greer M.; Taylor, Joy L.

2011-01-01

Objectives. The goal of the study was to improve prediction of longitudinal flight simulator performance by studying cognitive factors that may moderate the influence of chronological age. Method. We examined age-related change in aviation performance in aircraft pilots in relation to baseline cognitive ability measures and aviation expertise. Participants were aircraft pilots (N = 276) aged 40–77.9. Flight simulator performance and cognition were tested yearly; there were an average of 4.3 (± 2.7; range 1–13) data points per participant. Each participant was classified into one of the three levels of aviation expertise based on Federal Aviation Administration pilot proficiency ratings: least, moderate, or high expertise. Results. Addition of measures of cognitive processing speed and executive function to a model of age-related change in aviation performance significantly improved the model. Processing speed and executive function performance interacted such that the slowest rate of decline in flight simulator performance was found in aviators with the highest scores on tests of these abilities. Expertise was beneficial to pilots across the age range studied; however, expertise did not show evidence of reducing the effect of age. Discussion. These data suggest that longitudinal performance on an important real-world activity can be predicted by initial assessment of relevant cognitive abilities. PMID:21586627

Physical fitness is predictive for a decline in the ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living in older adults with intellectual disabilities: Results of the HA-ID study.

PubMed

Oppewal, Alyt; Hilgenkamp, Thessa I M; van Wijck, Ruud; Schoufour, Josje D; Evenhuis, Heleen M

2015-01-01

The ability to perform instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) is important for one's level of independence. A high incidence of limitations in IADL is seen in older adults with intellectual disabilities (ID), which is an important determinant for the amount of support one needs. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of physical fitness for the ability to perform IADL, over a 3-year follow-up period, in 601 older adults with ID. At baseline, an extensive physical fitness assessment was performed. In addition, professional caregivers completed the Lawton IADL scale, both at baseline and at follow-up. The average ability to perform IADL declined significantly over the 3-year follow-up period. A decline in the ability to perform IADL was seen in 44.3% of the participants. The percentage of participants being completely independent in IADL declined from 2.7% to 1.3%. Manual dexterity, balance, comfortable and fast gait speed, muscular endurance, and cardiorespiratory fitness were significant predictors for a decline in IADL after correcting for baseline IADL and personal characteristics (age, gender, level of ID, and Down syndrome). This can be interpreted as representing the predictive validity of the physical tests for a decline in IADL. This study shows that even though older adults with ID experience dependency on others due to cognitive limitations, physical fitness also is an important aspect for IADL, which stresses the importance of using physical fitness tests and physical fitness enhancing programs in the care for older adults with ID. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The evaluation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score, poisoning severity score, sequential organ failure assessment score combine with lactate to assess the prognosis of the patients with acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning.

PubMed

Yuan, Shaoxin; Gao, Yusong; Ji, Wenqing; Song, Junshuai; Mei, Xue

2018-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess the ability of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, poisoning severity score (PSS) as well as sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score combining with lactate (Lac) to predict mortality in the Emergency Department (ED) patients who were poisoned with organophosphate.A retrospective review of 59 stands-compliant patients was carried out. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed based on the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score with or without Lac, respectively, and the areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were determined to assess predictive value. According to SOFA-Lac (a combination of SOFA and Lac) classification standard, acute organophosphate pesticide poisoning (AOPP) patients were divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. Then mortality rates were compared between risk levels.Between survivors and non-survivors, there were significant differences in the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score, and Lac (all P < .05). The AUCs of the APACHE II score, PSS, and SOFA score were 0.876, 0.811, and 0.837, respectively. However, after combining with Lac, the AUCs were 0.922, 0.878, and 0.956, respectively. According to SOFA-Lac, the mortality of high-risk group was significantly higher than low-risk group (P < .05) and the patients of the non-survival group were all at high risk.These data suggest the APACHE II score, PSS, SOFA score can all predict the prognosis of AOPP patients. For its simplicity and objectivity, the SOFA score is a superior predictor. Lac significantly improved the predictive abilities of the 3 scoring systems, especially for the SOFA score. The SOFA-Lac system effectively distinguished the high-risk group from the low-risk group. Therefore, the SOFA-Lac system is significantly better at predicting mortality in AOPP patients.

Multi-step rhodopsin inactivation schemes can account for the size variability of single photon responses in Limulus ventral photoreceptors

PubMed Central

1994-01-01

Limulus ventral photoreceptors generate highly variable responses to the absorption of single photons. We have obtained data on the size distribution of these responses, derived the distribution predicted from simple transduction cascade models and compared the theory and data. In the simplest of models, the active state of the visual pigment (defined by its ability to activate G protein) is turned off in a single reaction. The output of such a cascade is predicted to be highly variable, largely because of stochastic variation in the number of G proteins activated. The exact distribution predicted is exponential, but we find that an exponential does not adequately account for the data. The data agree much better with the predictions of a cascade model in which the active state of the visual pigment is turned off by a multi-step process. PMID:8057085

Bloc Concentration and Dispute Escalation among the Major Powers, 1830-1965.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoll, Richard J.

1984-01-01

In the 1830-1914 era, when the major powers had a high level of political-military interdependence and alliance flexibility, changes in bloc concentration were a good predictor of dispute escalation. But bloc concentration had little predictive ability when this interdependence and alliance flexibility declined (1919-1965). (RM)

Three Studies of General Educational Development (GED) Students--1971-1981.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swarm, Christine C.

Three studies examined General Educational Development (GED) students in postsecondary institutions and determined their ability to achieve in college without a traditional high school education. A literature review focused on admittance of GED students to institutions of higher learning and students' characteristics. Tests that predict GED…

Assessing the Relation between Language Comprehension and Performance in General Chemistry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pyburn, Daniel T.; Pazicni, Samuel; Benassi, Victor A.; Tappin, Elizabeth E.

2013-01-01

Few studies have focused specifically on the role that language plays in learning chemistry. We report here an investigation into the ability of language comprehension measures to predict performance in university introductory chemistry courses. This work is informed by theories of language comprehension, which posit that high-skilled…

Prediction of aquatic toxicity mode of action using linear discriminant and random forest models

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to determine the mode of action (MOA) for a diverse group of chemicals is a critical part of ecological risk assessment and chemical regulation. However, existing MOA assignment approaches in ecotoxicology have been limited to a relatively few MOAs, have high uncertai...

Kubelka-Munk reflectance theory applied to porcelain veneer systems using a colorimeter.

PubMed

Davis, B K; Johnston, W M; Saba, R F

1994-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the ability of Kubelka-Munk reflectance theory to predict color parameters of veneer porcelain on various backings using colorimetric measurements. Tristimulus absorption and scattering coefficients were used to predict the respective tristimulus reflectance values of A1, D3, and translucent porcelain samples after they had been bonded to light and dark substrates using universal, opaque, and untinted shades of bonding resin. Observed and predicted reflectance values exhibited high correlation (r2 > or = 0.93 for each porcelain shade). Kubelka-Munk theory offers an accurate prediction for the resultant colorimetric reflectance parameters of veneer porcelain bonded to variously colored backings.

Spectral Response and Diagnostics of Biological Activity of Hydroxyl-Containing Aromatic Compounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstorozhev, G. B.; Mayer, G. V.; Bel'kov, M. V.; Shadyro, O. I.

2016-08-01

Using IR Fourier spectra and employing quantum-chemical calculations of electronic structure, spectra, and proton-acceptor properties, synthetic derivatives of aminophenol exhibiting biological activity in the suppression of herpes, influenza, and HIV viruses have been investigated from a new perspective, with the aim of establishing the spectral response of biological activity of the molecules. It has been experimentally established that the participation of the aminophenol hydroxyl group in intramolecular hydrogen bonds is characteristic of structures with antiviral properties. A quantum-chemical calculation of the proton-acceptor ability of the investigated aminophenol derivatives has shown that biologically active structures are characterized by a high proton-acceptor ability of oxygen of the hydroxyl group. A correlation that has been obtained among the formation of an intramolecular hydrogen bond, high proton-acceptor ability, and antiviral activity of substituted aminophenols enables us to predict the pharmacological properties of new medical preparations of the given class of compounds.

Influence of social factors on the relation between lie-telling and children's cognitive abilities.

PubMed

Talwar, Victoria; Lavoie, Jennifer; Gomez-Garibello, Carlos; Crossman, Angela M

2017-07-01

Lie-telling may be part of a normative developmental process for children. However, little is known about the complex interaction of social and cognitive factors related to this developmental behavior. The current study examined parenting style, maternal exposure to stressors, and children's cognitive abilities in relation to children's antisocial lie-telling behavior in an experimental setting. Children (3-6years, N=157) participated in a modified temptation resistance paradigm to elicit spontaneous lies. Results indicate that high authoritative parenting and high inhibitory control interact to predict a lower propensity to lie, but those who did lie had better semantic leakage control. This suggests that although children's lie-telling may be normative during early development, the relation to children's cognitive abilities can be moderated by responsive parenting behaviors that discourage lying. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Face emotion recognition is related to individual differences in psychosis-proneness.

PubMed

Germine, L T; Hooker, C I

2011-05-01

Deficits in face emotion recognition (FER) in schizophrenia are well documented, and have been proposed as a potential intermediate phenotype for schizophrenia liability. However, research on the relationship between psychosis vulnerability and FER has mixed findings and methodological limitations. Moreover, no study has yet characterized the relationship between FER ability and level of psychosis-proneness. If FER ability varies continuously with psychosis-proneness, this suggests a relationship between FER and polygenic risk factors. We tested two large internet samples to see whether psychometric psychosis-proneness, as measured by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire-Brief (SPQ-B), is related to differences in face emotion identification and discrimination or other face processing abilities. Experiment 1 (n=2332) showed that psychosis-proneness predicts face emotion identification ability but not face gender identification ability. Experiment 2 (n=1514) demonstrated that psychosis-proneness also predicts performance on face emotion but not face identity discrimination. The tasks in Experiment 2 used identical stimuli and task parameters, differing only in emotion/identity judgment. Notably, the relationships demonstrated in Experiments 1 and 2 persisted even when individuals with the highest psychosis-proneness levels (the putative high-risk group) were excluded from analysis. Our data suggest that FER ability is related to individual differences in psychosis-like characteristics in the normal population, and that these differences cannot be accounted for by differences in face processing and/or visual perception. Our results suggest that FER may provide a useful candidate intermediate phenotype.

Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

PubMed

Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

2018-02-07

Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

Alcoholic hepatitis histological score has high accuracy to predict 90-day mortality and response to steroids.

PubMed

Andrade, Patrícia; Silva, Marco; Rodrigues, Susana; Lopes, Joanne; Lopes, Susana; Macedo, Guilherme

2016-06-01

A histological classification system (AHHS) has been recently proposed to predict 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the spectrum of histological features in patients with AH and assessed the ability of AHHS for predicting both response to steroids and 90-day mortality. Retrospective study of patients admitted to our tertiary centre between 2010 and 2014 with biopsy-proven AH. Histological features were analyzed and AHHS value was calculated. Kaplan-Meyer curves were calculated to assess the ability of AHHS to predict response to steroids and 90-day mortality. We included 34 patients (70.6% men, mean age 48.5±8.9 years). Transjugular liver biopsy was performed 3.5±2.9 days after admission. Presence of bilirubinostasis (p=0.049), degree of bilirubinostasis (p<0.001), absence of megamitochondria (p<0.001) and degree of polymorphonuclear infiltration (p=0.018) were significantly associated with higher mortality at 90 days. Patients who responded to steroids had a significantly lower AHHS value than non-responders (5.4±0.9 vs 8.1±1.1, p=0.003). AAHS value was significantly higher in patients who died compared to patients who survived at 90 days (9.0±0.7 vs 5.0±0.9, p<0.001). AHHS predicted response to steroids [AUROC 0.90 (CI95% 0.742-1.000), p=0.004] and 90-day mortality [AUROC 1.0 (CI95% 1.0-1.0), p<0.001] with high accuracy. In this cohort of patients, presence and degree of bilirubinostasis, absence of megamitochondria and degree of PMN infiltration were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. AHHS had a high accuracy for predicting response to steroids and 90-day mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine learning bandgaps of double perovskites

PubMed Central

Pilania, G.; Mannodi-Kanakkithodi, A.; Uberuaga, B. P.; Ramprasad, R.; Gubernatis, J. E.; Lookman, T.

2016-01-01

The ability to make rapid and accurate predictions on bandgaps of double perovskites is of much practical interest for a range of applications. While quantum mechanical computations for high-fidelity bandgaps are enormously computation-time intensive and thus impractical in high throughput studies, informatics-based statistical learning approaches can be a promising alternative. Here we demonstrate a systematic feature-engineering approach and a robust learning framework for efficient and accurate predictions of electronic bandgaps of double perovskites. After evaluating a set of more than 1.2 million features, we identify lowest occupied Kohn-Sham levels and elemental electronegativities of the constituent atomic species as the most crucial and relevant predictors. The developed models are validated and tested using the best practices of data science and further analyzed to rationalize their prediction performance. PMID:26783247

Ensemble Learning of QTL Models Improves Prediction of Complex Traits

PubMed Central

Bian, Yang; Holland, James B.

2015-01-01

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) models can provide useful insights into trait genetic architecture because of their straightforward interpretability but are less useful for genetic prediction because of the difficulty in including the effects of numerous small effect loci without overfitting. Tight linkage between markers introduces near collinearity among marker genotypes, complicating the detection of QTL and estimation of QTL effects in linkage mapping, and this problem is exacerbated by very high density linkage maps. Here we developed a thinning and aggregating (TAGGING) method as a new ensemble learning approach to QTL mapping. TAGGING reduces collinearity problems by thinning dense linkage maps, maintains aspects of marker selection that characterize standard QTL mapping, and by ensembling, incorporates information from many more markers-trait associations than traditional QTL mapping. The objective of TAGGING was to improve prediction power compared with QTL mapping while also providing more specific insights into genetic architecture than genome-wide prediction models. TAGGING was compared with standard QTL mapping using cross validation of empirical data from the maize (Zea mays L.) nested association mapping population. TAGGING-assisted QTL mapping substantially improved prediction ability for both biparental and multifamily populations by reducing both the variance and bias in prediction. Furthermore, an ensemble model combining predictions from TAGGING-assisted QTL and infinitesimal models improved prediction abilities over the component models, indicating some complementarity between model assumptions and suggesting that some trait genetic architectures involve a mixture of a few major QTL and polygenic effects. PMID:26276383

Efficacy of functional movement screening for predicting injuries in coast guard cadets.

PubMed

Knapik, Joseph J; Cosio-Lima, Ludimila M; Reynolds, Katy L; Shumway, Richard S

2015-05-01

Functional movement screening (FMS) examines the ability of individuals to perform highly specific movements with the aim of identifying individuals who have functional limitations or asymmetries. It is assumed that individuals who can more effectively accomplish the required movements have a lower injury risk. This study determined the ability of FMS to predict injuries in the United States Coast Guard (USCG) cadets. Seven hundred seventy male and 275 female USCG freshman cadets were administered the 7 FMS tests before the physically intense 8-week Summer Warfare Annual Basic (SWAB) training. Physical training-related injuries were recorded during SWAB training. Cumulative injury incidence was calculated at various FMS cutpoint scores. The ability of the FMS total score to predict injuries was examined by calculating sensitivity and specificity. Determination of the FMS cutpoint that maximized specificity and sensitivity was determined from the Youden's index (sensitivity + specificity - 1). For men, FMS scores ≤ 12 were associated with higher injury risk than scores >12; for women, FMS scores ≤ 15 were associated with higher injury risk than scores >15. The Youden's Index indicated that the optimal FMS cutpoint was ≤ 11 for men (22% sensitivity, 87% specificity) and ≤ 14 for women (60% sensitivity, 61% specificity). Functional movement screening demonstrated moderate prognostic accuracy for determining injury risk among female Coast Guard cadets but relatively low accuracy among male cadets. Attempting to predict injury risk based on the FMS test seems to have some limited promise based on the present and past investigations.

Musical Competence is Predicted by Music Training, Cognitive Abilities, and Personality.

PubMed

Swaminathan, Swathi; Schellenberg, E Glenn

2018-06-15

Individuals differ in musical competence, which we defined as the ability to perceive, remember, and discriminate sequences of tones or beats. We asked whether such differences could be explained by variables other than music training, including socioeconomic status (SES), short-term memory, general cognitive ability, and personality. In a sample of undergraduates, musical competence had positive simple associations with duration of music training, SES, short-term memory, general cognitive ability, and openness-to-experience. When these predictors were considered jointly, musical competence had positive partial associations with music training, general cognitive ability, and openness. Nevertheless, moderation analyses revealed that the partial association between musical competence and music training was evident only among participants who scored below the mean on our measure of general cognitive ability. Moreover, general cognitive ability and openness had indirect associations with musical competence by predicting music training, which in turn predicted musical competence. Musical competence appears to be the result of multiple factors, including but not limited to music training.

[The value of SYNTAX score in predicting outcome patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention].

PubMed

Gao, Yue-chun; Yu, Xian-peng; He, Ji-qiang; Chen, Fang

2012-01-01

To assess the value of SYNTAX score to predict major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) among patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. 190 patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with Cypher select drug-eluting stent were enrolled. SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score were retrospectively calculated. Our clinical Endpoint focused on MACCE, a composite of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and repeat revascularization. The value of SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score to predict MACCE were studied respectively. 29 patients were observed to suffer from MACCE, accounting 18.5% of the overall 190 patients. MACCE rates of low (≤ 20.5), intermediate (21.0 - 31.0), and high (≥ 31.5) tertiles according to SYNTAX score were 9.1%, 16.2% and 30.9% respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that SYNTAX score was the independent predictor of MACCE. MACCE rates of low (≤ 19.5), intermediate (19.6 - 29.1), and high (≥ 29.2) tertiles according to clinical SYNTAX score were 14.9%, 9.8% and 30.6% respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that clinical SYNTAX score was the independent predictor of MACCE. ROC analysis showed both SYNTAX score (AUC = 0.667, P = 0.004) and clinical SYNTAX score (AUC = 0.636, P = 0.020) had predictive value of MACCE. Clinical SYNTAX score failed to show better predictive ability than the SYNTAX score. Both SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score could be independent risk predictors for MACCE among patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Clinical SYNTAX score failed to show better predictive ability than the SYNTAX score in this group of patients.

Predictability and Prediction of Low-Frequency Rainfall Over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley on the Time Scale of 20 to 30 days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qiuming

2018-01-01

This paper presents a predictability study of the 20-30-day low-frequency rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV). This study relies on an extended complex autoregressive (ECAR) model method, which is based on the principal components of the global 850 hPa low-frequency meridional wind. ECAR is a recently advanced climate forecast method, based on data-driven models. It not only reflects the lagged variations information between the leading low-frequency components of the global circulation and rainfall in a complex space, but also displays the ability to describe the synergy variations of low-frequency components of a climate system in a low dimensional space. A 6-year forecast experiment is conducted on the low-frequency rainfall over the LYRV for the extended-range daily forecasts during 2009-2014, based on the time-varying high-order ECAR. These experimental results demonstrate that the useful skills of the real-time forecasts are achieved for an extended lead-time up to 28 days with a fifth-order model, and are also shown to be 27-day lead for forecasts which are initiated from weak intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). This high-order ECAR displays the ability to significantly improve the predictions of the ISO. The analysis of the 20-30-day ISO predictability reveals a predictability limit of about 28-40 days. Therefore, the forecast framework used in this study is determined to have the potential to assist in improving the real-time forecasts for the 20-30-day oscillations related to the heavy rainfall over the LYRV in summer.

Financial Distress Prediction using Linear Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoso, Noviyanti; Wibowo, Wahyu

2018-03-01

A financial difficulty is the early stages before the bankruptcy. Bankruptcies caused by the financial distress can be seen from the financial statements of the company. The ability to predict financial distress became an important research topic because it can provide early warning for the company. In addition, predicting financial distress is also beneficial for investors and creditors. This research will be made the prediction model of financial distress at industrial companies in Indonesia by comparing the performance of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) combined with variable selection technique. The result of this research is prediction model based on hybrid Stepwise-SVM obtains better balance among fitting ability, generalization ability and model stability than the other models.

Criterion for evaluating the predictive ability of nonlinear regression models without cross-validation.

PubMed

Kaneko, Hiromasa; Funatsu, Kimito

2013-09-23

We propose predictive performance criteria for nonlinear regression models without cross-validation. The proposed criteria are the determination coefficient and the root-mean-square error for the midpoints between k-nearest-neighbor data points. These criteria can be used to evaluate predictive ability after the regression models are updated, whereas cross-validation cannot be performed in such a situation. The proposed method is effective and helpful in handling big data when cross-validation cannot be applied. By analyzing data from numerical simulations and quantitative structural relationships, we confirm that the proposed criteria enable the predictive ability of the nonlinear regression models to be appropriately quantified.

Validation of the CRASH model in the prediction of 18-month mortality and unfavorable outcome in severe traumatic brain injury requiring decompressive craniectomy.

PubMed

Honeybul, Stephen; Ho, Kwok M; Lind, Christopher R P; Gillett, Grant R

2014-05-01

The goal in this study was to assess the validity of the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) collaborators prediction model in predicting mortality and unfavorable outcome at 18 months in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) requiring decompressive craniectomy. In addition, the authors aimed to assess whether this model was well calibrated in predicting outcome across a wide spectrum of severity of TBI requiring decompressive craniectomy. This prospective observational cohort study included all patients who underwent a decompressive craniectomy following severe TBI at the two major trauma hospitals in Western Australia between 2004 and 2012 and for whom 18-month follow-up data were available. Clinical and radiological data on initial presentation were entered into the Web-based model and the predicted outcome was compared with the observed outcome. In validating the CRASH model, the authors used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to assess the ability of the CRASH model to differentiate between favorable and unfavorable outcomes. The ability of the CRASH 6-month unfavorable prediction model to differentiate between unfavorable and favorable outcomes at 18 months after decompressive craniectomy was good (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90). However, the model's calibration was not perfect. The slope and the intercept of the calibration curve were 1.66 (SE 0.21) and -1.11 (SE 0.14), respectively, suggesting that the predicted risks of unfavorable outcomes were not sufficiently extreme or different across different risk strata and were systematically too high (or overly pessimistic), respectively. The CRASH collaborators prediction model can be used as a surrogate index of injury severity to stratify patients according to injury severity. However, clinical decisions should not be based solely on the predicted risks derived from the model, because the number of patients in each predicted risk stratum was still relatively small and hence the results were relatively imprecise. Notwithstanding these limitations, the model may add to a clinician's ability to have better-informed conversations with colleagues and patients' relatives about prognosis.

The use of tools for learning science in small groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdes, Rosa Maria

2000-10-01

"Hands-on" learning through the use of tools or manipulatives representative of science concepts has long been an important component of the middle school science curriculum. However, scarce research exists on the impact of tool use on learning of science concepts, particularly on the processes involved in such learning. This study investigated how the use of tools by students engaged in small group discussion about the concept of electrical resistance and the explanations that accompany such use leads to improved understandings of the concept. Specifically, the main hypothesis of the study was that students who observe explanations by their high-ability peers accompanied by accurate tool use and who are highly engaged in these explanations would show learning gains. Videotaped interactions of students working in small groups to solve tasks on electricity were coded using scales that measured the accuracy of the tool use, the accuracy of the explanations presented, and the level of engagement of target students. The data of 48 students whose knowledge of the concept of resistance was initially low and who also were determined to be low achievers as shown by their scores on a set of pretest, was analyzed. Quantitative and qualitative analyses showed that students who observed their peers give explanations using tools and who were engaged at least moderately made gains in their understandings of resistance. Specifically, the results of regression analyses showed that both the level of accuracy of a high-ability peer's explanation and the target student's level of engagement in the explanation significantly predicted target students' outcome scores. The number of presentations offered by a high-ability peer also significantly predicted outcome scores. Case study analyses of six students found that students who improved their scores the most from pretest to posttest had high-ability peers who tended to be verbal and who gave numerous explanations, whereas students who improved the least had high-ability peers who gave no explanations at all. Important implications of this study for teaching are that (1) teachers should group students heterogeneously and should monitor students' small groups to insure that students are producing content-oriented discussion, and (2) students should be allowed to manipulate tools that allow experimentation as students build understandings and promote communication of abstract ideas.

Do Statistical Segmentation Abilities Predict Lexical-Phonological and Lexical-Semantic Abilities in Children with and without SLI?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mainela-Arnold, Elina; Evans, Julia L.

2014-01-01

This study tested the predictions of the procedural deficit hypothesis by investigating the relationship between sequential statistical learning and two aspects of lexical ability, lexical-phonological and lexical-semantic, in children with and without specific language impairment (SLI). Participants included forty children (ages 8;5-12;3), twenty…

Non-"g" Residuals of the SAT and ACT Predict Specific Abilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coyle, Thomas R.; Purcell, Jason M.; Snyder, Anissa C.; Kochunov, Peter

2013-01-01

This research examined whether non-"g" residuals of the SAT and ACT subtests, obtained after removing g, predicted specific abilities. Non-"g" residuals of the verbal and math subtests of the SAT and ACT were correlated with academic (verbal and math) and non-academic abilities (speed and shop), both based on the Armed Services…

Predictive value of hippocampal MR imaging-based high-dimensional mapping in mesial temporal epilepsy: preliminary findings.

PubMed

Hogan, R E; Wang, L; Bertrand, M E; Willmore, L J; Bucholz, R D; Nassif, A S; Csernansky, J G

2006-01-01

We objectively assessed surface structural changes of the hippocampus in mesial temporal sclerosis (MTS) and assessed the ability of large-deformation high-dimensional mapping (HDM-LD) to demonstrate hippocampal surface symmetry and predict group classification of MTS in right and left MTS groups compared with control subjects. Using eigenvector field analysis of HDM-LD segmentations of the hippocampus, we compared the symmetry of changes in the right and left MTS groups with a group of 15 matched controls. To assess the ability of HDM-LD to predict group classification, eigenvectors were selected by a logistic regression procedure when comparing the MTS group with control subjects. Multivariate analysis of variance on the coefficients from the first 9 eigenvectors accounted for 75% of the total variance between groups. The first 3 eigenvectors showed the largest differences between the control group and each of the MTS groups, but with eigenvector 2 showing the greatest difference in the MTS groups. Reconstruction of the hippocampal deformation vector fields due solely to eigenvector 2 shows symmetrical patterns in the right and left MTS groups. A "leave-one-out" (jackknife) procedure correctly predicted group classification in 14 of 15 (93.3%) left MTS subjects and all 15 right MTS subjects. Analysis of principal dimensions of hippocampal shape change suggests that MTS, after accounting for normal right-left asymmetries, affects the right and left hippocampal surface structure very symmetrically. Preliminary analysis using HDM-LD shows it can predict group classification of MTS and control hippocampi in this well-defined population of patients with MTS and mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE).

A Video-Based Measure of Preservice Teachers' Abilities to Predict Elementary Students' Scientific Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akerson, Valarie L.; Carter, Ingrid S.; Park Rogers, Meredith A.; Pongsanon, Khemmawadee

2018-01-01

In this mixed methods study, the researchers developed a video-based measure called a "Prediction Assessment" to determine preservice elementary teachers' abilities to predict students' scientific reasoning. The instrument is based on teachers' need to develop pedagogical content knowledge for teaching science. Developing a knowledge…

Humor Ability Reveals Intelligence, Predicts Mating Success, and Is Higher in Males

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greengross, Gil; Miller, Geoffrey

2011-01-01

A good sense of humor is sexually attractive, perhaps because it reveals intelligence, creativity, and other "good genes" or "good parent" traits. If so, intelligence should predict humor production ability, which in turn should predict mating success. In this study, 400 university students (200 men and 200 women) completed…

Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

2018-01-01

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

INTEGRATED CHEMICAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A central regulatory mandate of the Environmental Protection Agency, spanning many Program Offices and issues, is to assess the potential health and environmental risks of large numbers of chemicals released into the environment, often in the absence of relevant test data. Models for predicting potential adverse effects of chemicals based primarily on chemical structure play a central role in prioritization and screening strategies yet are highly dependent and conditional upon the data used for developing such models. Hence, limits on data quantity, quality, and availability are considered by many to be the largest hurdles to improving prediction models in diverse areas of toxicology. Generation of new toxicity data for additional chemicals and endpoints, development of new high-throughput, mechanistically relevant bioassays, and increased generation of genomics and proteomics data that can clarify relevant mechanisms will all play important roles in improving future SAR prediction models. The potential for much greater immediate gains, across large domains of chemical and toxicity space, comes from maximizing the ability to mine and model useful information from existing toxicity data, data that represent huge past investment in research and testing expenditures. In addition, the ability to place newer “omics” data, data that potentially span many possible domains of toxicological effects, in the broader context of historical data is the means for opti

Behavior and neuroimaging at baseline predict individual response to combined mathematical and working memory training in children.

PubMed

Nemmi, Federico; Helander, Elin; Helenius, Ola; Almeida, Rita; Hassler, Martin; Räsänen, Pekka; Klingberg, Torkel

2016-08-01

Mathematical performance is highly correlated with several general cognitive abilities, including working memory (WM) capacity. Here we investigated the effect of numerical training using a number-line (NLT), WM training (WMT), or the combination of the two on a composite score of mathematical ability. The aim was to investigate if the combination contributed to the outcome, and determine if baseline performance or neuroimaging predict the magnitude of improvement. We randomly assigned 308, 6-year-old children to WMT, NLT, WMT+NLT or a control intervention. Overall, there was a significant effect of NLT but not WMT. The WMT+NLT was the only group that improved significantly more than the controls, although the interaction NLTxWM was non-significant. Higher WM and maths performance predicted larger benefits for WMT and NLT, respectively. Neuroimaging at baseline also contributed significant information about training gain. Different individuals showed as much as a three-fold difference in their responses to the same intervention. These results show that the impact of an intervention is highly dependent on individual characteristics of the child. If differences in responses could be used to optimize the intervention for each child, future interventions could be substantially more effective. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

[Usefulness of peristalsis, flatulence and evacuation for predicting oral route tolerance in patients subjected to major abdominal surgery].

PubMed

Hernández-Hernández, Betsabé; Figueroa-Gallaga, Luis; Sánchez-Castrillo, Christian; Belmonte-Montes, Carlos

2007-01-01

to evaluate the usefulness of bowel sounds, flatus and bowel movement presence to predict tolerance of oral intake in patients following major abdominal surgery. nutrition is one of the most important factors in the management of postoperative care. The early oral intake has shown to contribute to a faster recovery. Traditionally the beginning of postoperative feeding after major abdominal surgery is delayed until bowel sounds, flatus and/or bowel movement are present although there is no enough medical evidence for their usefulness. We studied 88 patients following major abdominal surgery. We registered the presence of bowel sounds, flatus and bowel movement each 24 hours in the postoperative period. We analized the relationship between the presence of these signs and the ability to tolerate oral intake. Predictive values, sensitivity, specificity and ROC curves were calculated. results shown that bowel sounds have an acCeptable sensibility but a very low specificity to predict the ability to tolerate oral intake. Unlike bowel sounds, bowel movements shown a low sensibility and a high specificity. Flatus turned out to have and intermediate sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of tolerance of oral feeding. in this study any of these signs were shown as a reliable indicator for beginning oral feeding because they have a moderate to low usefulness.

Innate biology versus lifestyle behaviour in the aetiology of obesity and type 2 diabetes: the GLACIER Study.

PubMed

Poveda, Alaitz; Koivula, Robert W; Ahmad, Shafqat; Barroso, Inês; Hallmans, Göran; Johansson, Ingegerd; Renström, Frida; Franks, Paul W

2016-03-01

We compared the ability of genetic (established type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose, 2 h glucose and obesity variants) and modifiable lifestyle (diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol and education) risk factors to predict incident type 2 diabetes and obesity in a population-based prospective cohort of 3,444 Swedish adults studied sequentially at baseline and 10 years later. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the predictive ability of genetic and lifestyle risk factors on incident obesity and type 2 diabetes by calculating the AUC. The predictive accuracy of lifestyle risk factors was similar to that yielded by genetic information for incident type 2 diabetes (AUC 75% and 74%, respectively) and obesity (AUC 68% and 73%, respectively) in models adjusted for age, age(2) and sex. The addition of genetic information to the lifestyle model significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes (AUC 80%; p = 0.0003) and obesity (AUC 79%; p < 0.0001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 58% for type 2 diabetes and 64% for obesity. These findings illustrate that lifestyle and genetic information separately provide a similarly high degree of long-range predictive accuracy for obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Childress, Evan; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2017-01-01

Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology.

Brain Structural Integrity and Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Forecast 6 Year Longitudinal Growth in Children's Numerical Abilities.

PubMed

Evans, Tanya M; Kochalka, John; Ngoon, Tricia J; Wu, Sarah S; Qin, Shaozheng; Battista, Christian; Menon, Vinod

2015-08-19

Early numerical proficiency lays the foundation for acquiring quantitative skills essential in today's technological society. Identification of cognitive and brain markers associated with long-term growth of children's basic numerical computation abilities is therefore of utmost importance. Previous attempts to relate brain structure and function to numerical competency have focused on behavioral measures from a single time point. Thus, little is known about the brain predictors of individual differences in growth trajectories of numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal design, with multimodal imaging and machine-learning algorithms, we investigated whether brain structure and intrinsic connectivity in early childhood are predictive of 6 year outcomes in numerical abilities spanning childhood and adolescence. Gray matter volume at age 8 in distributed brain regions, including the ventrotemporal occipital cortex (VTOC), the posterior parietal cortex, and the prefrontal cortex, predicted longitudinal gains in numerical, but not reading, abilities. Remarkably, intrinsic connectivity analysis revealed that the strength of functional coupling among these regions also predicted gains in numerical abilities, providing novel evidence for a network of brain regions that works in concert to promote numerical skill acquisition. VTOC connectivity with posterior parietal, anterior temporal, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices emerged as the most extensive network predicting individual gains in numerical abilities. Crucially, behavioral measures of mathematics, IQ, working memory, and reading did not predict children's gains in numerical abilities. Our study identifies, for the first time, functional circuits in the human brain that scaffold the development of numerical skills, and highlights potential biomarkers for identifying children at risk for learning difficulties. Children show substantial individual differences in math abilities and ease of math learning. Early numerical abilities provide the foundation for future academic and professional success in an increasingly technological society. Understanding the early identification of poor math skills has therefore taken on great significance. This work provides important new insights into brain structure and connectivity measures that can predict longitudinal growth of children's math skills over a 6 year period, and may eventually aid in the early identification of children who might benefit from targeted interventions. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3511743-08$15.00/0.

Early Predictors of Impaired Social Functioning in Male Rhesus Macaques (Macaca mulatta)

PubMed Central

Del Rosso, Laura A.; Seil, Shannon K.; Calonder, Laura A.; Madrid, Jesus E.; Bone, Kyle J.; Sherr, Elliott H.; Garner, Joseph P.; Capitanio, John P.; Parker, Karen J.

2016-01-01

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by social cognition impairments but its basic disease mechanisms remain poorly understood. Progress has been impeded by the absence of animal models that manifest behavioral phenotypes relevant to ASD. Rhesus monkeys are an ideal model organism to address this barrier to progress. Like humans, rhesus monkeys are highly social, possess complex social cognition abilities, and exhibit pronounced individual differences in social functioning. Moreover, we have previously shown that Low-Social (LS) vs. High-Social (HS) adult male monkeys exhibit lower social motivation and poorer social skills. It is not known, however, when these social deficits first emerge. The goals of this study were to test whether juvenile LS and HS monkeys differed as infants in their ability to process social information, and whether infant social abilities predicted later social classification (i.e., LS vs. HS), in order to facilitate earlier identification of monkeys at risk for poor social outcomes. Social classification was determined for N = 25 LS and N = 25 HS male monkeys that were 1–4 years of age. As part of a colony-wide assessment, these monkeys had previously undergone, as infants, tests of face recognition memory and the ability to respond appropriately to conspecific social signals. Monkeys later identified as LS vs. HS showed impairments in recognizing familiar vs. novel faces and in the species-typical adaptive ability to gaze avert to scenes of conspecific aggression. Additionally, multivariate logistic regression using infant social ability measures perfectly predicted later social classification of all N = 50 monkeys. These findings suggest that an early capacity to process important social information may account for differences in rhesus monkeys’ motivation and competence to establish and maintain social relationships later in life. Further development of this model will facilitate identification of novel biological targets for intervention to improve social outcomes in at-risk young monkeys. PMID:27788195

Sport ability beliefs, 2 x 2 achievement goals, and intrinsic motivation: the moderating role of perceived competence in sport and exercise.

PubMed

Wang, C K John; Liu, Woon Chia; Lochbaum, Marc R; Stevenson, Sarah J

2009-06-01

We examined whether perceived competence moderated the relationships between implicit theories, 2 x 2 achievement goals, and intrinsic motivation for sports and physical activity. We placed 309 university students into high and moderate perceived competence groups. When perceived competence was high, entity beliefs did not predict the performance-avoidance goal; yet when perceived competence was moderately low, entity beliefs did predict this goal. The mastery-avoidance goal had no relationship with intrinsic motivation when perceived competence was high, but had a significant negative relationship when perceived competence was moderately low. Our findings highlight the importance of reexamining the role of perceived competence when studying implicit beliefs and the 2 x 2 achievement goals.

Psychosocial Development of 5-year-old Children with Hearing Loss: Risks and protective factors

PubMed Central

Wong, Cara L.; Ching, Teresa YC; Leigh, Greg; Cupples, Linda; Button, Laura; Marnane, Vivienne; Whitfield, Jessica; Gunnourie, Miriam; Martin, Louise

2016-01-01

Objective The aims of this paper were to report on the global psychosocial functioning of 5-year-old DHH children and examine the risk and protective factors that predict outcomes. Design A cross-sectional analysis of data collected from a prospective, population-based longitudinal study. Study Sample Parents/caregivers of 356 children completed questionnaires on psychosocial development (CDI, SDQ), functional communication (PEACH) and demographic information. Children completed standardised assessments of non-verbal cognitive ability (WNV) and language (PLS-4). Results On average, global psychosocial functioning was within the range of typically developing children; however, variability was high and 12% of children had scores that were more than 2 SDs below the norm. Non-verbal cognitive ability, presence of additional disabilities, language and functional communication significantly predicted outcomes. In contrast, type of hearing device, severity of hearing loss and age at intervention did not. Conclusion The global psychosocial functioning of this cohort of 5-year-old DHH children fell within the range of typically developing children. . The findings suggest that spoken language ability and functional communication skills are vital for healthy psychosocial development. PMID:27541363

Learning disabled and average readers' working memory and comprehension: does metacognition play a role?

PubMed

Swanson, H L; Trahan, M

1996-09-01

The present study investigates (a) whether learning disabled readers' working memory deficits that underlie poor reading comprehension are related to a general system, and (b) whether metacognition contributes to comprehension beyond what is predicted by working memory and word knowledge. To this end, performance between learning and disabled (N = 60) and average readers (N = 60) was compared on the reading comprehension, reading rate, and vocabulary subtests of the Nelson Skills Reading Test, Sentence Span test composed of high and low imagery words, and a Metacognitive Questionnaire. As expected, differences between groups in working memory, vocabulary, and reading measures emerged, whereas ability groups were statistically comparable on the Metacognitive Questionnaire. A within-group analysis indicated that the correlation patterns between working memory, vocabulary, metacognition, and reading comprehension were not the same between ability groups. For predicting reading comprehension, the metacognitive questionnaire best predicted learning disabled readers' performance, whereas the working memory span measure that included low-imagery words best predicted average achieving readers' comprehension. Overall, the results suggest that the relationship between learning disabled readers' generalised working memory deficits and poor reading comprehension may be mediated by metacognition.

Effects of mora deletion, nonword repetition, rapid naming, and visual search performance on beginning reading in Japanese.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Maya Shiho; Haynes, Charles W; Macaruso, Paul; Hook, Pamela E; Kato, Junko

2005-06-01

This study examined the extent to which mora deletion (phonological analysis), nonword repetition (phonological memory), rapid automatized naming (RAN), and visual search abilities predict reading in Japanese kindergartners and first graders. Analogous abilities have been identified as important predictors of reading skills in alphabetic languages like English. In contrast to English, which is based on grapheme-phoneme relationships, the primary components of Japanese orthography are two syllabaries-hiragana and katakana (collectively termed "kana")-and a system of morphosyllabic symbols (kanji). Three RAN tasks (numbers, objects, syllabary symbols [hiragana]) were used with kindergartners, with an additional kanji RAN task included for first graders. Reading measures included accuracy and speed of passage reading for kindergartners and first graders, and reading comprehension for first graders. In kindergartners, hiragana RAN and number RAN were the only significant predictors of reading accuracy and speed. In first graders, kanji RAN and hiragana RAN predicted reading speed, whereas accuracy was predicted by mora deletion. Reading comprehension was predicted by kanji RAN, mora deletion, and nonword repetition. Although number RAN did not contribute unique variance to any reading measure, it correlated highly with kanji RAN. Implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed.

The prediction of the building precision in the Laser Engineered Net Shaping process using advanced networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Z. L.; Li, D. C.; Lu, B. H.; Zhang, A. F.; Zhu, G. X.; Pi, G.

2010-05-01

Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS) is an advanced manufacturing technology, but it is difficult to control the depositing height (DH) of the prototype because there are many technology parameters influencing the forming process. The effect of main parameters (laser power, scanning speed and powder feeding rate) on the DH of single track is firstly analyzed, and then it shows that there is the complex nonlinear intrinsic relationship between them. In order to predict the DH, the back propagation (BP) based network improved with Adaptive learning rate and Momentum coefficient (AM) algorithm, and the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) network are both adopted. The mapping relationship between above parameters and the DH is constructed according to training samples collected by LENS experiments, and then their generalization ability, function-approximating ability and real-time are contrastively investigated. The results show that although the predicted result by the BP-AM approximates the experimental result, above performance index of the LS-SVM are better than those of the BP-AM. Finally, high-definition thin-walled parts of AISI316L are successfully fabricated. Hence, the LS-SVM network is more suitable for the prediction of the DH.

Predicting arsenic in drinking water wells of the Central Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayotte, Joseph; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2016-01-01

Probabilities of arsenic in groundwater at depths used for domestic and public supply in the Central Valley of California are predicted using weak-learner ensemble models (boosted regression trees, BRT) and more traditional linear models (logistic regression, LR). Both methods captured major processes that affect arsenic concentrations, such as the chemical evolution of groundwater, redox differences, and the influence of aquifer geochemistry. Inferred flow-path length was the most important variable but near-surface-aquifer geochemical data also were significant. A unique feature of this study was that previously predicted nitrate concentrations in three dimensions were themselves predictive of arsenic and indicated an important redox effect at >10 μg/L, indicating low arsenic where nitrate was high. Additionally, a variable representing three-dimensional aquifer texture from the Central Valley Hydrologic Model was an important predictor, indicating high arsenic associated with fine-grained aquifer sediment. BRT outperformed LR at the 5 μg/L threshold in all five predictive performance measures and at 10 μg/L in four out of five measures. BRT yielded higher prediction sensitivity (39%) than LR (18%) at the 10 μg/L threshold–a useful outcome because a major objective of the modeling was to improve our ability to predict high arsenic areas.

Predicting nutrient and sediment loadings to streams from landscape metrics: A multiple watershed study from the United States Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

K. Bruce Jones; Anne C. Neale; Malisha S. Nash; Rick D. van Remortel; James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' Neill

2001-01-01

There has been an increasing interest in evaluating the relative condition or health of water resources at regional and national scales. Of particular interest is an ability to identify those areas where surface and ground waters have the greatest potential for high levels of nutrient and sediment loadings. High levels of nutrient and sediment loadings can have adverse...

The relationship between theory of mind and autobiographical memory in high-functioning autism and Asperger syndrome.

PubMed

Adler, Noga; Nadler, Benny; Eviatar, Zohar; Shamay-Tsoory, Simone G

2010-06-30

The relationship between theory of mind (ToM) and autobiographical memory (AM) in high-functioning autism (HFA) and Asperger syndrome (AS) has never been investigated. Here, we show that ToM abilities could be predicted by levels of AM in HFA and AS as compared to controls, suggesting that difficulties in AM are closely related to ToM impairments in HFA and AS.

Improving College Performance and Retention the Easy Way: Unpacking the ACT Exam. NBER Working Paper No. 17119

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bettinger, Eric P.; Evans, Brent J.; Pope, Devin G.

2011-01-01

Colleges rely on the ACT exam in their admission decisions to increase their ability to differentiate between students likely to succeed and those that have a high risk of under-performing and dropping out. We show that two of the four sub tests of the ACT, English and Mathematics, are highly predictive of positive college outcomes while the other…

The real-time prediction and inhibition of linguistic outcomes: Effects of language and literacy skill.

PubMed

Kukona, Anuenue; Braze, David; Johns, Clinton L; Mencl, W Einar; Van Dyke, Julie A; Magnuson, James S; Pugh, Kenneth R; Shankweiler, Donald P; Tabor, Whitney

2016-11-01

Recent studies have found considerable individual variation in language comprehenders' predictive behaviors, as revealed by their anticipatory eye movements during language comprehension. The current study investigated the relationship between these predictive behaviors and the language and literacy skills of a diverse, community-based sample of young adults. We found that rapid automatized naming (RAN) was a key determinant of comprehenders' prediction ability (e.g., as reflected in predictive eye movements to a white cake on hearing "The boy will eat the white…"). Simultaneously, comprehension-based measures predicted participants' ability to inhibit eye movements to objects that shared features with predictable referents but were implausible completions (e.g., as reflected in eye movements to a white but inedible white car). These findings suggest that the excitatory and inhibitory mechanisms that support prediction during language processing are closely linked with specific cognitive abilities that support literacy. We show that a self-organizing cognitive architecture captures this pattern of results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Parry, S; Denehy, L; Berney, S; Browning, L

2014-03-01

(1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. Observational cohort study. Tertiary Australian referral centre. 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simple risk scoring system for prediction of relapse after inpatient alcohol treatment.

PubMed

Pedersen, Mads Uffe; Hesse, Morten

2009-01-01

Predicting relapse after alcoholism treatment can be useful in targeting patients for aftercare services. However, a valid and practical instrument for predicting relapse risk does not exist. Based on a prospective study of alcoholism treatment, we developed the Risk of Alcoholic Relapse Scale (RARS) using items taken from the Addiction Severity Index and some basic demographic information. The RARS was cross-validated using two non-overlapping samples, and tested for its ability to predict relapse across different models of treatment. The RARS predicted relapse to drinking within 6 months after alcoholism treatment in both the original and the validation sample, and in a second validation sample it predicted admission to new treatment 3 years after treatment. The RARS can identify patients at high risk of relapse who need extra aftercare and support after treatment.

Video gaming enhances psychomotor skills but not visuospatial and perceptual abilities in surgical trainees.

PubMed

Kennedy, A M; Boyle, E M; Traynor, O; Walsh, T; Hill, A D K

2011-01-01

There is considerable interest in the identification and assessment of underlying aptitudes or innate abilities that could potentially predict excellence in the technical aspects of operating. However, before the assessment of innate abilities is introduced for high-stakes assessment (such as competitive selection into surgical training programs), it is essential to determine that these abilities are stable and unchanging and are not influenced by other factors, such as the use of video games. The aim of this study was to investigate whether experience playing video games will predict psychomotor performance on a laparoscopic simulator or scores on tests of visuospatial and perceptual abilities, and to examine the correlation, if any, between these innate abilities. Institutional ethical approval was obtained. Thirty-eight undergraduate medical students with no previous surgical experience were recruited. All participants completed a self-reported questionnaire that asked them to detail their video game experience. They then underwent assessment of their psychomotor, visuospatial, and perceptual abilities using previously validated tests. The results were analyzed using independent samples t tests to compare means and linear regression curves for subsequent analysis. Students who played video games for at least 7 hours per week demonstrated significantly better psychomotor skills than students who did not play video games regularly. However, there was no difference on measures of visuospatial and perceptual abilities. There was no correlation between psychomotor tests and visuospatial or perceptual tests. Regular video gaming correlates positively with psychomotor ability, but it does not seem to influence visuospatial or perceptual ability. This study suggests that video game experience might be beneficial to a future career in surgery. It also suggests that relevant surgical skills may be gained usefully outside the operating room in activities that are not related to surgery. Copyright © 2011 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of in silico models for prediction of mutagenicity.

PubMed

Bakhtyari, Nazanin G; Raitano, Giuseppa; Benfenati, Emilio; Martin, Todd; Young, Douglas

2013-01-01

Using a dataset with more than 6000 compounds, the performance of eight quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) models was evaluated: ACD/Tox Suite, Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Elimination, and Toxicity of chemical substances (ADMET) predictor, Derek, Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (T.E.S.T.), TOxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology (TOPKAT), Toxtree, CEASAR, and SARpy (SAR in python). In general, the results showed a high level of performance. To have a realistic estimate of the predictive ability, the results for chemicals inside and outside the training set for each model were considered. The effect of applicability domain tools (when available) on the prediction accuracy was also evaluated. The predictive tools included QSAR models, knowledge-based systems, and a combination of both methods. Models based on statistical QSAR methods gave better results.

The Predictive Validity of the Assessment of Basic Learning Abilities versus Parents' Predictions with Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Colleen; Martin, Garry L.; Yu, C. T.

2014-01-01

The Assessment of Basic Learning Abilities (ABLA) is an empirically validated clinical tool for assessing the learning ability of persons with intellectual disabilities and children with autism. An ABLA tester uses standardized prompting and reinforcement procedures to attempt to teach, individually, each of six tasks, called levels, to a testee,…

Expectancy Theory as a Predictor of Grade-Point Averages, Satisfaction, and Participation in the College Environment. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lincoln, Yvonna S.; And Others

The ability of Vroom's expectancy motivation theory to predict student satisfaction with the college environment, student participation at school, and student academic performance was studied. Specific objectives of the study were as follows: to test the ability of Vroom's valence model to predict student satisfaction, to test the ability of…

Consumer Decision-Making Abilities and Long-Term Care Insurance Purchase.

PubMed

McGarry, Brian E; Tempkin-Greener, Helena; Grabowski, David C; Chapman, Benjamin P; Li, Yue

2018-04-16

To determine the impact of consumer decision-making abilities on making a long-term care insurance (LTCi) purchasing decision that is consistent with normative economic predictions regarding policy ownership. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, multivariate analyses are implemented to estimate the effect of decision-making ability factors on owning LTCi. Stratified multivariate analyses are used to examine the effect of decision-making abilities on the likelihood of adhering to economic predictions of LTCi ownership. In the full sample, better cognitive capacity was found to significantly increase the odds of ownership. When the sample was stratified based on expected LTCi ownership status, cognitive capacity was positively associated with ownership among those predicted to own and negatively associated with ownership among those predicted not to own who could likely afford a policy. Consumer decision-making abilities, specifically cognitive capacity, are an important determinant of LTCi decision outcomes. Deficits in this ability may prevent individuals from successfully preparing for future long-term care expenses. Policy makers should consider changes that reduce the cognitive burden of this choice, including the standardization of the LTCi market, the provision of consumer decision aids, and alternatives to voluntary and private insuring mechanisms.

Teaching a Machine to Feel Postoperative Pain: Combining High-Dimensional Clinical Data with Machine Learning Algorithms to Forecast Acute Postoperative Pain

PubMed Central

Tighe, Patrick J.; Harle, Christopher A.; Hurley, Robert W.; Aytug, Haldun; Boezaart, Andre P.; Fillingim, Roger B.

2015-01-01

Background Given their ability to process highly dimensional datasets with hundreds of variables, machine learning algorithms may offer one solution to the vexing challenge of predicting postoperative pain. Methods Here, we report on the application of machine learning algorithms to predict postoperative pain outcomes in a retrospective cohort of 8071 surgical patients using 796 clinical variables. Five algorithms were compared in terms of their ability to forecast moderate to severe postoperative pain: Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), gradient-boosted decision tree, support vector machine, neural network, and k-nearest neighbor, with logistic regression included for baseline comparison. Results In forecasting moderate to severe postoperative pain for postoperative day (POD) 1, the LASSO algorithm, using all 796 variables, had the highest accuracy with an area under the receiver-operating curve (ROC) of 0.704. Next, the gradient-boosted decision tree had an ROC of 0.665 and the k-nearest neighbor algorithm had an ROC of 0.643. For POD 3, the LASSO algorithm, using all variables, again had the highest accuracy, with an ROC of 0.727. Logistic regression had a lower ROC of 0.5 for predicting pain outcomes on POD 1 and 3. Conclusions Machine learning algorithms, when combined with complex and heterogeneous data from electronic medical record systems, can forecast acute postoperative pain outcomes with accuracies similar to methods that rely only on variables specifically collected for pain outcome prediction. PMID:26031220

Prediction of sickness absenteeism, disability pension and sickness presenteeism among employees with back pain.

PubMed

Bergström, Gunnar; Hagberg, Jan; Busch, Hillevi; Jensen, Irene; Björklund, Christina

2014-06-01

The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive ability of the Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (ÖMPSQ) concerning long-term sick leave, sickness presenteeism and disability pension during a follow-up period of 2 years. The study group consisted of 195 employees visiting the occupational health service (OHS) due to back pain. Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the area under the curve (AUC) varied from 0.67 to 0.93, which was from less accurate for sickness presenteeism to highly accurate for the prediction of disability pension. For registered sick leave during 6 months following the baseline the AUC from the ROC analyses was moderately accurate (0.81) and a cut off score of 90 rendered a high sensitivity of 0.89 but a low specificity of 0.46 whereas a cut off score of 105 improves the specificity substantially but at the cost of some sensitivity. The predictive ability appears to decrease with time. Several workplace factors beyond those included in the ÖMPSQ were considered but only social support at the workplace was significantly related to future long-term sick leave besides the total score of the ÖMPSQ. The results of this study extend and confirm the findings of earlier research on the ÖMPSQ. Assessment of psychosocial risk factors among employees seeking help for back pain at the OHS could be helpful in the prevention of work disabling problems.

Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise.

PubMed

Runting, Rebecca K; Wilson, Kerrie A; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2013-02-01

Many studies have explored the benefits of adopting more sophisticated modelling techniques or spatial data in terms of our ability to accurately predict ecosystem responses to global change. However, we currently know little about whether the improved predictions will actually lead to better conservation outcomes once the costs of gaining improved models or data are accounted for. This severely limits our ability to make strategic decisions for adaptation to global pressures, particularly in landscapes subject to dynamic change such as the coastal zone. In such landscapes, the global phenomenon of sea level rise is a critical consideration for preserving biodiversity. Here, we address this issue in the context of making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity with a limited budget. Specifically, we determined the cost-effectiveness of investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models for predicting wetland shifts in a coastal region of South East Queensland, Australia. We evaluated the resulting priority areas for reserve selection to quantify the cost-effectiveness of investment in better quantifying biological and physical processes. We show that, in this case, it is considerably more cost effective to use a process-based model and high-resolution elevation data, even if this requires a substantial proportion of the project budget to be expended (up to 99% in one instance). The less accurate model and data set failed to identify areas of high conservation value, reducing the cost-effectiveness of the resultant conservation plan. This suggests that when developing conservation plans in areas where sea level rise threatens biodiversity, investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models to predict shifts in coastal ecosystems may be highly cost effective. A future research priority is to determine how this cost-effectiveness varies among different regions across the globe. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Does cognitive ability buffer the link between childhood disadvantage and adult health?

PubMed

Bridger, Emma; Daly, Michael

2017-10-01

Individual differences in childhood cognitive ability have been neglected in the study of how early life psychosocial factors may buffer the long-term health consequences of social disadvantage. In this study, we drew on rich data from two large British cohorts to test whether high levels of cognitive ability may protect children from experiencing the physical and mental health consequences of early life socioeconomic disadvantage. Participants from the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; N = 11,522) were followed from birth to age 42, and those from the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; N = 13,213) were followed from birth to age 50. Childhood social disadvantage was indexed using 6 indicators gauging parental education, occupational prestige, and housing characteristics (i.e., housing tenure and home crowding). Standardized assessments of cognitive ability were completed at ages 10 (BCS) and 11 (NCDS) years. Psychological distress, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality were examined from early adulthood to midlife in both cohorts. Early social disadvantage predicted elevated levels of psychological distress and lower levels of self-rated health in both cohorts and higher mortality risk in the NCDS. Childhood cognitive ability moderated each of these relationships such that the link between early life social disadvantage and poor health in adulthood was markedly stronger at low (-1 SD) compared to high (+1 SD) levels of childhood cognitive ability. This study provides evidence that high childhood cognitive ability is associated with a decrease in the strength of socioeconomic status-driven health inequalities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Mining data from CFD simulation for aneurysm and carotid bifurcation models.

PubMed

Miloš, Radović; Dejan, Petrović; Nenad, Filipović

2011-01-01

Arterial geometry variability is present both within and across individuals. To analyze the influence of geometric parameters, blood density, dynamic viscosity and blood velocity on wall shear stress (WSS) distribution in the human carotid artery bifurcation and aneurysm, the computer simulations were run to generate the data pertaining to this phenomenon. In our work we evaluate two prediction models for modeling these relationships: neural network model and k-nearest neighbor model. The results revealed that both models have high prediction ability for this prediction task. The achieved results represent progress in assessment of stroke risk for a given patient data in real time.

CFD Study of the Performance of an Operational Wind Farm and its Impact on the Local Climate: CFD sensitivity to forestry modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wylie, Scott; Watson, Simon

2013-04-01

Any past, current or projected future wind farm developments are highly dependent on localised climatic conditions. For example the mean wind speed, one of the main factors in assessing the economic feasibility of a wind farm, can vary significantly over length scales no greater than the size of a typical wind farm. Any additional heterogeneity at a potential site, such as forestry, can affect the wind resource further not accounting for the additional difficulty of installation. If a wind farm is sited in an environmentally sensitive area then the ability to predict the wind farm performance and possible impacts on the important localised climatic conditions are of increased importance. Siting of wind farms in environmentally sensitive areas is not uncommon, such as areas of peat-land as in this example. Areas of peat-land are important sinks for carbon in the atmosphere but their ability to sequester carbon is highly dependent on the local climatic conditions. An operational wind farm's impact on such an area was investigated using CFD. Validation of the model outputs were carried out using field measurements from three automatic weather stations (AWS) located throughout the site. The study focuses on validation of both wind speed and turbulence measurement, whilst also assessing the models ability to predict wind farm performance. The use of CFD to model the variation in wind speed over heterogeneous terrain, including wind turbines effects, is increasing in popularity. Encouraging results have increased confidence in the ability of CFD performance in complex terrain with features such as steep slopes and forests, which are not well modelled by the widely used linear models such as WAsP and MS-Micro. Using concurrent measurements from three stationary AWS across the wind farm will allow detailed validation of the model predicted flow characteristics, whilst aggregated power output information will allow an assessment of how accurate the model setup can predict wind farm performance. Given the dependence of the local climatic conditions influence on the peat-land's ability to sequester carbon, accurate predictions of the local wind and turbulence features will allow us to quantify any possible wind farm influences. This work was carried out using the commercially available Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) CFD package ANSYS CFX. Utilising the Windmodeller add-on in CFX, a series of simulations were carried out to assess wind flow interactions through and around the wind farm, incorporating features such as terrain, forestry and rotor wake interactions. Particular attention was paid to forestry effects, as the AWS are located close to the vicinity of forestry. Different Leaf Area Densities (LAD) were tested to assess how sensitive the models output was to this change.

Prediction of high temperature metal matrix composite ply properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caruso, J. J.; Chamis, C. C.

1988-01-01

The application of the finite element method (superelement technique) in conjunction with basic concepts from mechanics of materials theory is demonstrated to predict the thermomechanical behavior of high temperature metal matrix composites (HTMMC). The simulated behavior is used as a basis to establish characteristic properties of a unidirectional composite idealized an as equivalent homogeneous material. The ply properties predicted include: thermal properties (thermal conductivities and thermal expansion coefficients) and mechanical properties (moduli and Poisson's ratio). These properties are compared with those predicted by a simplified, analytical composite micromechanics model. The predictive capabilities of the finite element method and the simplified model are illustrated through the simulation of the thermomechanical behavior of a P100-graphite/copper unidirectional composite at room temperature and near matrix melting temperature. The advantage of the finite element analysis approach is its ability to more precisely represent the composite local geometry and hence capture the subtle effects that are dependent on this. The closed form micromechanics model does a good job at representing the average behavior of the constituents to predict composite behavior.

Risk-Based Questionnaires Fail to Detect Adolescent Iron Deficiency and Anemia.

PubMed

Sekhar, Deepa L; Murray-Kolb, Laura E; Schaefer, Eric W; Paul, Ian M

2017-08-01

To evaluate the predictive ability of screening questionnaires to identify adolescent women at high-risk for iron deficiency or iron deficiency anemia who warrant objective laboratory testing. Cross-sectional study of 96 female individuals 12-21 years old seen at an academic medical center. Participants completed an iron deficiency risk assessment questionnaire including the 4 Bright Futures Adolescent Previsit Questionnaire anemia questions, along with depression, attention, food insecurity, and daytime sleepiness screens. Multiple linear regression controlling for age, race, and hormonal contraception use compared the predictive ability of 2 models for adolescent iron deficiency (defined as ferritin <12 mcg/L) and anemia (hemoglobin <12 g/dL). Model 1, the Bright Futures questions, was compared with model 2, which included the 4 aforementioned screens and body mass index percentile. Among participants, 18% (17/96) had iron deficiency and 5% (5/96) had iron deficiency anemia. Model 1 (Bright Futures) poorly predicted ferritin and hemoglobin values (R 2  = 0.03 and 0.08, respectively). Model 2 demonstrated similarly poor predictive ability (R 2  = 0.05 and 0.06, respectively). Mean differences for depressive symptoms (0.3, 95% CI -0.2, 0.8), attention difficulty (-0.1, 95% CI -0.5, 0.4), food insecurity (0.04, 95% CI -0.5, 0.6), daytime sleepiness (0.1, 95% CI -0.1, 0.3), and body mass index percentile (-0.04, 95% CI -0.3, 0.2) were not significantly associated with ferritin in model 2. Mean differences for hemoglobin were also nonsignificant. Risk-based surveys poorly predict objective measures of iron status using ferritin and hemoglobin. Next steps are to establish the optimal timing for objective assessment of adolescent iron deficiency and anemia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Auditory Brainstem Response to Complex Sounds Predicts Self-Reported Speech-in-Noise Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Samira; Parbery-Clark, Alexandra; White-Schwoch, Travis; Kraus, Nina

2013-01-01

Purpose: To compare the ability of the auditory brainstem response to complex sounds (cABR) to predict subjective ratings of speech understanding in noise on the Speech, Spatial, and Qualities of Hearing Scale (SSQ; Gatehouse & Noble, 2004) relative to the predictive ability of the Quick Speech-in-Noise test (QuickSIN; Killion, Niquette,…

Utility of the MMPI Pain Assessment Index in Predicting Outcome After Lumbar Surgery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Judith; And Others

1986-01-01

Examined the ability of the Pain Assesment Index, determined from presurgery Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory scores, to predict outcome subsequent to lumbar laminectomy and discectomy. The PAI was found to have good ability to identify patients who were doing well after surgery, but low power in predicting which patients would have…

An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

Deviation from expected cognitive ability across psychotic disorders.

PubMed

Hochberger, W C; Combs, T; Reilly, J L; Bishop, J R; Keefe, R S E; Clementz, B A; Keshavan, M S; Pearlson, G D; Tamminga, C A; Hill, S K; Sweeney, J A

2018-02-01

Patients with schizophrenia show a deficit in cognitive ability compared to estimated premorbid and familial intellectual abilities. However, the degree to which this pattern holds across psychotic disorders and is familial is unclear. The present study examined deviation from expected cognitive level in schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, and psychotic bipolar disorder probands and their first-degree relatives. Using a norm-based regression approach, parental education and WRAT-IV Reading scores (both significant predictors of cognitive level in the healthy control group) were used to predict global neuropsychological function as measured by the composite score from the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS) test in probands and relatives. When compared to healthy control group, psychotic probands showed a significant gap between observed and predicted BACS composite scores and a greater likelihood of robust cognitive decline. This effect was not seen in unaffected relatives. While BACS and WRAT-IV Reading scores were themselves highly familial, the decline in cognitive function from expectation had lower estimates of familiality. Thus, illness-related factors such as epigenetic, treatment, or pathophysiological factors may be important causes of illness related decline in cognitive abilities across psychotic disorders. This is consistent with the markedly greater level of cognitive impairment seen in affected individuals compared to their unaffected family members. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical Properties of Differences between Low and High Resolution CMAQ Runs with Matched Initial and Boundary Conditions

EPA Science Inventory

The difficulty in assessing errors in numerical models of air quality is a major obstacle to improving their ability to predict and retrospectively map air quality. In this paper, using simulation outputs from the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), the statistic...

A Longitudinal Study of Perceived Family Adjustment and Emotional Adjustment in Early Adolescence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohannessian, Christine McCauley; And Others

1994-01-01

Examined the predictive relationship between family adjustment and emotional adjustment during early adolescence and the influence of adolescents' levels of self-worth, peer support, and coping abilities. Found that family adjustment and emotional adjustment are reciprocally related and that high levels of self-worth, peer support, and coping…

Examining the Measurement Precision and Invariance of the "Revised Get Ready to Read!"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrington, Amber L.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2015-01-01

Children's emergent literacy skills are highly predictive of later reading abilities. To determine which children have weaker emergent literacy skills and are in need of intervention, it is necessary to assess emergent literacy skills accurately and reliably. In this study, 1,351 children were administered the "Revised Get Ready to…

Method for high-precision multi-layered thin film deposition for deep and extreme ultraviolet mirrors

DOEpatents

Ruffner, J.A.

1999-06-15

A method for coating (flat or non-flat) optical substrates with high-reflectivity multi-layer coatings for use at Deep Ultra-Violet (DUV) and Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) wavelengths. The method results in a product with minimum feature sizes of less than 0.10 [micro]m for the shortest wavelength (13.4 nm). The present invention employs a computer-based modeling and deposition method to enable lateral and vertical thickness control by scanning the position of the substrate with respect to the sputter target during deposition. The thickness profile of the sputter targets is modeled before deposition and then an appropriate scanning algorithm is implemented to produce any desired, radially-symmetric thickness profile. The present invention offers the ability to predict and achieve a wide range of thickness profiles on flat or figured substrates, i.e., account for 1/R[sup 2] factor in a model, and the ability to predict and accommodate changes in deposition rate as a result of plasma geometry, i.e., over figured substrates. 15 figs.

Children's construction task performance and spatial ability: controlling task complexity and predicting mathematics performance.

PubMed

Richardson, Miles; Hunt, Thomas E; Richardson, Cassandra

2014-12-01

This paper presents a methodology to control construction task complexity and examined the relationships between construction performance and spatial and mathematical abilities in children. The study included three groups of children (N = 96); ages 7-8, 10-11, and 13-14 years. Each group constructed seven pre-specified objects. The study replicated and extended previous findings that indicated that the extent of component symmetry and variety, and the number of components for each object and available for selection, significantly predicted construction task difficulty. Results showed that this methodology is a valid and reliable technique for assessing and predicting construction play task difficulty. Furthermore, construction play performance predicted mathematical attainment independently of spatial ability.

Heterodimer Binding Scaffolds Recognition via the Analysis of Kinetically Hot Residues.

PubMed

Perišić, Ognjen

2018-03-16

Physical interactions between proteins are often difficult to decipher. The aim of this paper is to present an algorithm that is designed to recognize binding patches and supporting structural scaffolds of interacting heterodimer proteins using the Gaussian Network Model (GNM). The recognition is based on the (self) adjustable identification of kinetically hot residues and their connection to possible binding scaffolds. The kinetically hot residues are residues with the lowest entropy, i.e., the highest contribution to the weighted sum of the fastest modes per chain extracted via GNM. The algorithm adjusts the number of fast modes in the GNM's weighted sum calculation using the ratio of predicted and expected numbers of target residues (contact and the neighboring first-layer residues). This approach produces very good results when applied to dimers with high protein sequence length ratios. The protocol's ability to recognize near native decoys was compared to the ability of the residue-level statistical potential of Lu and Skolnick using the Sternberg and Vakser decoy dimers sets. The statistical potential produced better overall results, but in a number of cases its predicting ability was comparable, or even inferior, to the prediction ability of the adjustable GNM approach. The results presented in this paper suggest that in heterodimers at least one protein has interacting scaffold determined by the immovable, kinetically hot residues. In many cases, interacting proteins (especially if being of noticeably different sizes) either behave as a rigid lock and key or, presumably, exhibit the opposite dynamic behavior. While the binding surface of one protein is rigid and stable, its partner's interacting scaffold is more flexible and adaptable.

The joint impact of cognitive performance in adolescence and familial cognitive aptitude on risk for major psychiatric disorders: a delineation of four potential pathways to illness.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Ohlsson, H; Keefe, R S E; Sundquist, K; Sundquist, J

2018-04-01

How do joint measures of premorbid cognitive ability and familial cognitive aptitude (FCA) reflect risk for a diversity of psychiatric and substance use disorders? To address this question, we examined, using Cox models, the predictive effects of school achievement (SA) measured at age 16 and FCA-assessed from SA in siblings and cousins, and educational attainment in parents-on risk for 12 major psychiatric syndromes in 1 140 608 Swedes born 1972-1990. Four developmental patterns emerged. In the first, risk was predicted jointly by low levels of SA and high levels of FCA-that is a level of SA lower than would be predicted from the FCA. This pattern was strongest in autism spectrum disorders and schizophrenia, and weakest in bipolar illness. In these disorders, a pathologic process seems to have caused cognitive functioning to fall substantially short of familial potential. In the second pattern, seen in the internalizing conditions of major depression and anxiety disorders, risk was associated with low SA but was unrelated to FCA. Externalizing disorders-drug abuse and alcohol use disorders-demonstrated the third pattern, in which risk was predicted jointly by low SA and low FCA. The fourth pattern, seen in eating disorders, was directly opposite of that observed in externalizing disorders with risk associated with high SA and high FCA. When measured together, adolescent cognitive ability and FCA identified four developmental patterns leading to diverse psychiatric disorders. The value of cognitive assessments in psychiatric research can be substantially increased by also evaluating familial cognitive potential.

Genetic improvement in mastitis resistance: comparison of selection criteria from cross-sectional and random regression sire models for somatic cell score.

PubMed

Odegård, J; Klemetsdal, G; Heringstad, B

2005-04-01

Several selection criteria for reducing incidence of mastitis were developed from a random regression sire model for test-day somatic cell score (SCS). For comparison, sire transmitting abilities were also predicted based on a cross-sectional model for lactation mean SCS. Only first-crop daughters were used in genetic evaluation of SCS, and the different selection criteria were compared based on their correlation with incidence of clinical mastitis in second-crop daughters (measured as mean daughter deviations). Selection criteria were predicted based on both complete and reduced first-crop daughter groups (261 or 65 daughters per sire, respectively). For complete daughter groups, predicted transmitting abilities at around 30 d in milk showed the best predictive ability for incidence of clinical mastitis, closely followed by average predicted transmitting abilities over the entire lactation. Both of these criteria were derived from the random regression model. These selection criteria improved accuracy of selection by approximately 2% relative to a cross-sectional model. However, for reduced daughter groups, the cross-sectional model yielded increased predictive ability compared with the selection criteria based on the random regression model. This result may be explained by the cross-sectional model being more robust, i.e., less sensitive to precision of (co)variance components estimates and effects of data structure.

A possible correlation between performance IQ, visuomotor adaptation ability and mu suppression.

PubMed

Anwar, Muhammad Nabeel; Navid, Muhammad Samran; Khan, Mushtaq; Kitajo, Keiichi

2015-04-07

Psychometric, anatomical and functional brain studies suggest that individuals differ in the way that they perceive and analyze information and strategically control and execute movements. Inter-individual differences are also observed in neural correlates of specific and general cognitive ability. As a result, some individuals perceive and adapt to environmental conditions and perform motor activities better than others. The aim of this study was to identify a common factor that predicts adaptation of a reaching movement to a visual perturbation and suppression of movement-related brain activity (mu rhythms). Twenty-eight participants participated in two different experiments designed to evaluate visuomotor adaptation and mu suppression ability. Performance intelligence quotient (IQ) was assessed using the revised Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale. Performance IQ predicted adaptation index of visuomotor performance (r=0.43, p=0.02) and suppression of mu rhythms (r=-0.59; p<0.001). Participants with high performance IQ were faster at adapting to a visuomotor perturbation and better at suppressing mu activity than participants with low performance IQ. We found a possible link between performance IQ and mu suppression, and performance IQ and the initial rate of adaptation. Individuals with high performance IQ were better in suppressing mu rhythms and were quicker at associating motor command and required movement than individuals with low performance IQ. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical composition analysis and product consistency tests supporting refinement of the Nepheline Model for the high aluminum Hanford glass composition region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, K. M.; Edwards, T. B.; Mcclane, D. L.

2016-03-01

In this report, Savannah River National Laboratory provides chemical analyses and Product Consistency Test (PCT) results for a series of simulated high level waste (HLW) glasses fabricated by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as part of an ongoing nepheline crystallization study. The results of these analyses will be used to improve the ability to predict crystallization of nepheline as a function of composition and heat treatment for glasses formulated at high alumina concentrations.

Machine learning bandgaps of double perovskites

DOE PAGES

Pilania, G.; Mannodi-Kanakkithodi, A.; Uberuaga, B. P.; ...

2016-01-19

The ability to make rapid and accurate predictions on bandgaps of double perovskites is of much practical interest for a range of applications. While quantum mechanical computations for high-fidelity bandgaps are enormously computation-time intensive and thus impractical in high throughput studies, informatics-based statistical learning approaches can be a promising alternative. Here we demonstrate a systematic feature-engineering approach and a robust learning framework for efficient and accurate predictions of electronic bandgaps of double perovskites. After evaluating a set of more than 1.2 million features, we identify lowest occupied Kohn-Sham levels and elemental electronegativities of the constituent atomic species as the mostmore » crucial and relevant predictors. As a result, the developed models are validated and tested using the best practices of data science and further analyzed to rationalize their prediction performance.« less

Cognitive Abilities Underlying Reading Accuracy, Fluency and Spelling Acquisition in Korean Hangul Learners from Grades 1 to 4: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Park, Hyun-Rin; Uno, Akira

2015-08-01

The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the cognitive abilities that predict reading and spelling performance in Korean children in Grades 1 to 4, depending on expertise and reading experience. As a result, visual cognition, phonological awareness, naming speed and receptive vocabulary significantly predicted reading accuracy in children in Grades 1 and 2, whereas visual cognition, phonological awareness and rapid naming speed did not predict reading accuracy in children in higher grades. For reading, fluency, phonological awareness, rapid naming speed and receptive vocabulary were crucial abilities in children in Grades 1 to 3, whereas phonological awareness was not a significant predictor in children in Grade 4. In spelling, reading ability and receptive vocabulary were the most important abilities for accurate Hangul spelling. The results suggested that the degree of cognitive abilities required for reading and spelling changed depending on expertise and reading experience. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Executive function predicts the development of play skills for verbal preschoolers with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Faja, Susan; Dawson, Geraldine; Sullivan, Katherine; Meltzoff, Andrew N; Estes, Annette; Bernier, Raphael

2016-12-01

Executive function and play skills develop in early childhood and are linked to cognitive and language ability. The present study examined these abilities longitudinally in two groups with autism spectrum disorder-a group with higher initial language (n = 30) and a group with lower initial language ability (n = 36). Among the lower language group, concurrent nonverbal cognitive ability contributed most to individual differences in executive function and play skills. For the higher language group, executive function during preschool significantly predicted play ability at age 6 over and above intelligence, but early play did not predict later executive function. These results suggested that factors related to the development of play and executive function differ for subgroups of children with different language abilities and that early executive function skills may be critical in order for verbal children with autism to develop play. Autism Res 2016, 9: 1274-1284. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Writing Abilities Longitudinally Predict Academic Outcomes of Adolescents with ADHD

PubMed Central

Molitor, Stephen J.; Langberg, Joshuah M.; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D.; Dvorsky, Melissa R.; Evans, Steven W.

2016-01-01

Students with ADHD often experience a host of negative academic outcomes and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear whether written expression abilities uniquely contribute to the academic functioning of students with ADHD. The current study included a sample of 104 middle school students diagnosed with ADHD (grades 6–8). Participants were followed longitudinally to evaluate whether written expression abilities at baseline predicted student GPA and parent ratings of academic impairment 18 months later, after controlling for reading ability and additional relevant covariates. Written expression abilities longitudinally predicted both academic outcomes above and beyond ADHD and ODD symptoms, medication use, reading ability, and baseline values of GPA and parent-rated academic impairment. Follow-up analyses revealed that no single aspect of written expression was demonstrably more impactful on academic outcomes than the others, suggesting that writing as an entire process should be the focus of intervention. PMID:26783650

Salivary mRNA markers having the potential to detect oral squamous cell carcinoma segregated from oral leukoplakia with dysplasia.

PubMed

Michailidou, Evangelia; Tzimagiorgis, Georgios; Chatzopoulou, Fani; Vahtsevanos, Konstantinos; Antoniadis, Konstantinos; Kouidou, Sofia; Markopoulos, Anastasios; Antoniades, Dimitrios

2016-08-01

In the current study the presence of extracellular IL-1B, IL-8, OAZ and SAT mRNAs in the saliva was evaluated as a tool in the early detection of oral squamous cell carcinoma. 34 patients with primary oral squamous cell carcinoma stage T1N0M0/T2N0M0, 20 patients with oral leukoplakia and dysplasia (15 patients with mild dysplasia and 5 with severe dysplasia/in situ carcinoma) and 31 matched healthy-control subjects were included in the study. The presence of IL-1B, IL-8, OAZ and SAT mRNA was evaluated in extracellular RNA isolated from saliva samples using sequence-specific primers and real-time RT-PCR. ROC curve analysis was used to estimate the ability of the biomarkers to detect oral squamous cell carcinoma patients. The data reveal that the combination of these four biomarkers provides a good predictive probability of up to 80% (AUC=0.799, p=0.002) for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma but not patients suffering from oral leukoplakia with dysplasia. Moreover, the combination of only the two biomarkers (SAT and IL-8) also raises a high predictive ability of 75.5% (AUC=0.755, p=0.007) approximately equal to the four biomarkers suggesting the use of the two biomarkers only in the prediction model for oral squamous cell carcinoma patients limiting the economic and health cost in half. SAT and IL-8 mRNAs are present in the saliva in high quality and quantity, with a good discriminatory ability for oral squamous cell carcinoma patients only but not for patients with oral leukoplakia and dysplasia an oral potentially malignant disorder. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predictive factors for work capacity in patients with musculoskeletal disorders.

PubMed

Lydell, Marie; Baigi, Amir; Marklund, Bertil; Månsson, Jörgen

2005-09-01

To identify predictive factors for work capacity in patients with musculoskeletal disorders. A descriptive, evaluative, quantitative study. The study was based on 385 patients who participated in a rehabilitation programme. Patients were divided into 2 groups depending on their ability to work. The groups were compared with each other with regard to sociodemographic factors, diagnoses, disability pension and number of sick days. The patient's level of exercise habits, ability to undertake activities, physical capacity, pain and quality of life were compared further using logistic regression analysis. Predictive factors for work capacity, such as ability to undertake activities, quality of life and fitness on exercise, were identified as important independent factors. Other well-known factors, i.e. gender, age, education, pain and earlier sickness certification periods, were also identified. Factors that were not significantly different between the groups were employment status, profession, diagnosis and levels of exercise habits. Identifying predictors for ability to return to work is an essential task for deciding on suitable individual rehabilitation. This study identified new predictive factors, such as ability to undertake activities, quality of life and fitness on exercise.

Eighteen-month-olds' ability to make gaze predictions following distraction or a long delay.

PubMed

Forssman, Linda; Bohlin, Gunilla; von Hofsten, Claes

2014-05-01

The abilities to flexibly allocate attention, select between conflicting stimuli, and make anticipatory gaze movements are important for young children's exploration and learning about their environment. These abilities constitute voluntary control of attention and show marked improvements in the second year of a child's life. Here we investigate the effects of visual distraction and delay on 18-month-olds' ability to predict the location of an occluded target in an experiment that requires switching of attention, and compare their performance to that of adults. Our results demonstrate that by 18 months of age children can readily overcome a previously learned response, even under a condition that involves visual distraction, but have difficulties with correctly updating their prediction when presented with a longer time delay. Further, the experiment shows that, overall, the 18-month-olds' allocation of visual attention is similar to that of adults, the primary difference being that adults demonstrate a superior ability to maintain attention on task and update their predictions over a longer time period. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Ability of Marine Mammal Populations to Compensate for Behavioral Disturbances

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Predicting the Ability of Marine Mammal Populations to...determine the ability of marine mammal populations to respond to behavioral disturbances. These tools are to be generic and applicable in a wide range...scale consequences. OBJECTIVES • Develop simple, generic measures that allow the estimation of marine mammal populations and individuals to

Bioprinting towards Physiologically Relevant Tissue Models for Pharmaceutics.

PubMed

Peng, Weijie; Unutmaz, Derya; Ozbolat, Ibrahim T

2016-09-01

Improving the ability to predict the efficacy and toxicity of drug candidates earlier in the drug discovery process will speed up the introduction of new drugs into clinics. 3D in vitro systems have significantly advanced the drug screening process as 3D tissue models can closely mimic native tissues and, in some cases, the physiological response to drugs. Among various in vitro systems, bioprinting is a highly promising technology possessing several advantages such as tailored microarchitecture, high-throughput capability, coculture ability, and low risk of cross-contamination. In this opinion article, we discuss the currently available tissue models in pharmaceutics along with their limitations and highlight the possibilities of bioprinting physiologically relevant tissue models, which hold great potential in drug testing, high-throughput screening, and disease modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of fatigue and work ability in cancer survivors.

PubMed

van Muijen, P; Duijts, S F A; Bonefaas-Groenewoud, K; van der Beek, A J; Anema, J R

2017-12-30

Workers diagnosed with cancer are at risk for job loss or work disability. To determine predictors of fatigue and work ability at 36 months after diagnosis in a population of cancer survivors. Individuals diagnosed with cancer and who applied for work disability benefit at 24 months of sick leave were surveyed at the time of application and again 12 months later. Fatigue was measured using the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness-Fatigue scale questionnaire and work ability was measured using the work ability index. Linear regression analyses were applied to identify predictors. There were 336 participants. Participants who were divorced or widowed had more physical limitations, more depressive symptoms and were more fatigued at baseline, and who worked in health care demonstrated higher levels of fatigue. Lower fatigue was predicted by having received chemotherapy. A higher level of work ability was predicted by having received chemotherapy, better global health and better work ability at baseline. Lower work ability was predicted by being principal wage earner, insecurity about being free of disease, having more physical limitations and having greater wage loss. Socio-demographic, health- and work-related factors were associated with fatigue and work ability in cancer survivors on long-term sick leave. As fatigue and poor work ability are important risk factors for work disability, addressing the identified predictive factors may assist in mitigation of work disability in cancer survivors. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Coping with examinations: exploring relationships between students' coping strategies, implicit theories of ability, and perceived control.

PubMed

Doron, Julie; Stephan, Yannick; Boiché, Julie; Le Scanff, Christine

2009-09-01

Relatively little is known about the contribution of students' beliefs regarding the nature of academic ability (i.e. their implicit theories) on strategies used to deal with examinations. This study applied Dweck's socio-cognitive model of achievement motivation to better understand how students cope with examinations. It was expected that students' implicit theories of academic ability would be related to their use of particular coping strategies to deal with exam-related stress. Additionally, it was predicted that perceived control over exams acts as a mediator between implicit theories of ability and coping. Four hundred and ten undergraduate students (263 males, 147 females), aged from 17 to 26 years old (M=19.73, SD=1.46) were volunteers for the present study. Students completed measures of coping, implicit theories of academic ability, and perception of control over academic examinations during regular classes in the first term of the university year. Multiple regression analyses revealed that incremental beliefs of ability significantly and positively predicted active coping, planning, venting of emotions, seeking social support for emotional and instrumental reasons, whereas entity beliefs positively predicted behavioural disengagement and negatively predicted active coping and acceptance. In addition, analyses revealed that entity beliefs of ability were related to coping strategies through students' perception of control over academic examinations. These results confirm that exam-related coping varies as a function of students' beliefs about the nature of academic ability and their perceptions of control when approaching examinations.

Catching on it early: Bodily and brain anticipatory mechanisms for excellence in sport.

PubMed

Abreu, Ana M; Candidi, Matteo; Aglioti, Salvatore M

2017-01-01

Programming and executing a subsequent move is inherently linked to the ability to anticipate the actions of others when interacting. Such fundamental social ability is particularly important in sport. Here, we discuss the possible mechanisms behind the highly sophisticated anticipation skills that characterize experts. We contend that prediction in sports might rely on a finely tuned perceptual system that endows experts with a fast, partially unconscious, pickup of relevant cues. Furthermore, we discuss the role of the multimodal, perceptuomotor, multiple-duty cells (mirror neurons) that play an important function in action anticipation by means of an inner motor simulation process. Finally, we suggest the role of predictive coding, interoception, and the enteric nervous system as the processual and biological support for intuition and "gut feelings" in sports-the missing link that might explain outstanding expert performance based on action anticipation. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building resilience to weather-related hazards through better preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Julia; Golding, Brian; Johnston, David; Ruti, Paolo

2017-04-01

Recent developments in weather forecasting have transformed our ability to predict weather-related hazards, while mobile communication is radically changing the way that people receive information. At the same time, vulnerability to weather-related hazards is growing through urban expansion, population growth and climate change. This talk will address issues facing the science community in responding to the Sendai Framework objective to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems" in the context of weather-related hazards. It will also provide an overview of activities and approaches developed in the World Meteorological Organisation's High Impact Weather (HIWeather) project. HIWeather has identified and is promoting research in key multi-disciplinary gaps in our knowledge, including in basic meteorology, risk prediction, communication and decision making, that affect our ability to provide effective warnings. The results will be pulled together in demonstration projects that will both showcase leading edge capability and build developing country capacity.

Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor.

PubMed

Kandasamy, Narayanan; Garfinkel, Sarah N; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben; Critchley, Hugo D; Gurnell, Mark; Coates, John M

2016-09-19

Interoception is the sensing of physiological signals originating inside the body, such as hunger, pain and heart rate. People with greater sensitivity to interoceptive signals, as measured by, for example, tests of heart beat detection, perform better in laboratory studies of risky decision-making. However, there has been little field work to determine if interoceptive sensitivity contributes to success in real-world, high-stakes risk taking. Here, we report on a study in which we quantified heartbeat detection skills in a group of financial traders working on a London trading floor. We found that traders are better able to perceive their own heartbeats than matched controls from the non-trading population. Moreover, the interoceptive ability of traders predicted their relative profitability, and strikingly, how long they survived in the financial markets. Our results suggest that signals from the body - the gut feelings of financial lore - contribute to success in the markets.

Does the KABC-II Display Ethnic Bias in the Prediction of Reading, Math, and Writing in Elementary School Through High School?

PubMed

Scheiber, Caroline

2017-09-01

This study explored whether the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children-Second Edition (KABC-II) predicted academic achievement outcomes of the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement-Second Edition (KTEA-II) equally well across a representative sample of African American, Hispanic, and Caucasian school-aged children ( N = 2,001) in three grade groups (1-4, 5-8, 9-12). It was of interest to study possible prediction bias in the slope and intercept of the five underlying Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) cognitive factors of the KABC-II-Sequential/Gsm (Short-Term Memory), Learning/Glr (Long-Term Storage and Retrieval), Simultaneous/Gv (Visual Processing), Planning/Gf (Fluid Reasoning), and Knowledge/Gc (Crystallized Ability)-in estimating reading, writing, and math. Structural equation modeling techniques demonstrated a lack of bias in the slopes; however, four of the five CHC indexes showed a persistent overprediction of the minority groups' achievement in the intercept. The overprediction is likely attributable to institutional or societal contributions, which limit the students' ability to achieve to their fullest potential.

Ionization Efficiency of Doubly Charged Ions Formed from Polyprotic Acids in Electrospray Negative Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liigand, Piia; Kaupmees, Karl; Kruve, Anneli

2016-07-01

The ability of polyprotic acids to give doubly charged ions in negative mode electrospray was studied and related to physicochemical properties of the acids via linear discriminant analysis (LDA). It was discovered that the compound has to be strongly acidic (low p K a1 and p K a2) and to have high hydrophobicity (log P ow) to become multiply charged. Ability to give multiply charged ions in ESI/MS cannot be directly predicted from the solution phase acidities. Therefore, for the first time, a quantitative model to predict the charge state of the analyte in ESI/MS is proposed and validated for small anions. Also, a model to predict ionization efficiencies of these analytes was developed. Results indicate that acidity of the analyte, its octanol-water partition coefficient, and charge delocalization are important factors that influence ionization efficiencies as well as charge states of the analytes. The pH of the solvent was also found to be an important factor influencing the ionization efficiency of doubly charged ions.

Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

2013-01-01

A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

The Roles of Cognitive and Language Abilities in Predicting Decoding and Reading Comprehension: Comparisons of Dyslexia and Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauterbach, Alexandra A.; Park, Yujeong; Lombardino, Linda J.

2017-01-01

This study aimed to (a) explore the roles of cognitive and language variables in predicting reading abilities of two groups of individuals with reading disabilities (i.e., dyslexia and specific language impairment) and (b) examine which variable(s) is the most predictive in differentiating two groups. Inclusion/exclusion criteria applied to…

For Whom the Mind Wanders, and When, Varies Across Laboratory and Daily-Life Settings.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Gross, Georgina M; Chun, Charlotte A; Smeekens, Bridget A; Meier, Matt E; Silvia, Paul J; Kwapil, Thomas R

2017-09-01

Undergraduates ( N = 274) participated in a weeklong daily-life experience-sampling study of mind wandering after being assessed in the lab for executive-control abilities (working memory capacity; attention-restraint ability; attention-constraint ability; and propensity for task-unrelated thoughts, or TUTs) and personality traits. Eight times a day, electronic devices prompted subjects to report on their current thoughts and context. Working memory capacity and attention abilities predicted subjects' TUT rates in the lab, but predicted the frequency of daily-life mind wandering only as a function of subjects' momentary attempts to concentrate. This pattern replicates prior daily-life findings but conflicts with laboratory findings. Results for personality factors also revealed different associations in the lab and daily life: Only neuroticism predicted TUT rate in the lab, but only openness predicted mind-wandering rate in daily life (both predicted the content of daily-life mind wandering). Cognitive and personality factors also predicted dimensions of everyday thought other than mind wandering, such as subjective judgments of controllability of thought. Mind wandering in people's daily environments and TUTs during controlled and artificial laboratory tasks have different correlates (and perhaps causes). Thus, mind-wandering theories based solely on lab phenomena may be incomplete.

Predicting writing development in dual language instructional contexts: exploring cross-linguistic relationships.

PubMed

Savage, Robert; Kozakewich, Meagan; Genesee, Fred; Erdos, Caroline; Haigh, Corinne

2017-01-01

This study examined whether decoding and linguistic comprehension abilities, broadly defined by the Simple View of Reading, in grade 1 each uniquely predicted the grade 6 writing performance of English-speaking children (n = 76) who were educated bilingually in both English their first language and French, a second language. Prediction was made from (1) English to English; (2) French to French; and (3) English to French. Results showed that both decoding and linguistic comprehension scores predicted writing accuracy but rarely predicted persuasive writing. Within the linguistic comprehension cluster of tests, Formulating Sentences was a strong consistent within- and between-language predictor of writing accuracy. In practical terms, the present results indicate that early screening for later writing ability using measures of sentence formulation early in students' schooling, in their L1 or L2, can provide greatest predictive power and allow teachers to differentiate instruction in the primary grades. Theoretically, the present results argue that there are correlations between reading-related abilities and writing abilities not only within the same language but also across languages, adding to the growing body of evidence for facilitative cross-linguistic relationships between bilinguals' developing languages. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive ability of direct genomic values for lifetime net merit of Holstein sires using selected subsets of single nucleotide polymorphism markers.

PubMed

Weigel, K A; de los Campos, G; González-Recio, O; Naya, H; Wu, X L; Long, N; Rosa, G J M; Gianola, D

2009-10-01

The objective of the present study was to assess the predictive ability of subsets of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers for development of low-cost, low-density genotyping assays in dairy cattle. Dense SNP genotypes of 4,703 Holstein bulls were provided by the USDA Agricultural Research Service. A subset of 3,305 bulls born from 1952 to 1998 was used to fit various models (training set), and a subset of 1,398 bulls born from 1999 to 2002 was used to evaluate their predictive ability (testing set). After editing, data included genotypes for 32,518 SNP and August 2003 and April 2008 predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) for lifetime net merit (LNM$), the latter resulting from progeny testing. The Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to regress August 2003 PTA on marker covariates in the training set to arrive at estimates of marker effects and direct genomic PTA. The coefficient of determination (R(2)) from regressing the April 2008 progeny test PTA of bulls in the testing set on their August 2003 direct genomic PTA was 0.375. Subsets of 300, 500, 750, 1,000, 1,250, 1,500, and 2,000 SNP were created by choosing equally spaced and highly ranked SNP, with the latter based on the absolute value of their estimated effects obtained from the training set. The SNP effects were re-estimated from the training set for each subset of SNP, and the 2008 progeny test PTA of bulls in the testing set were regressed on corresponding direct genomic PTA. The R(2) values for subsets of 300, 500, 750, 1,000, 1,250, 1,500, and 2,000 SNP with largest effects (evenly spaced SNP) were 0.184 (0.064), 0.236 (0.111), 0.269 (0.190), 0.289 (0.179), 0.307 (0.228), 0.313 (0.268), and 0.322 (0.291), respectively. These results indicate that a low-density assay comprising selected SNP could be a cost-effective alternative for selection decisions and that significant gains in predictive ability may be achieved by increasing the number of SNP allocated to such an assay from 300 or fewer to 1,000 or more.

Carotenoid-dependent coloration of male American kestrels predicts ability to reduce parasitic infections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Russell D.; Bortolotti, Gary R.

2006-12-01

The signaling function of sexually selected traits, such as carotenoid-dependent avian plumage coloration, has received a great deal of recent attention especially with respect to parasitism and immunocompetence. We argue that parasite-mediated models of sexual selection may have an implicit temporal component that many researchers have ignored. For example, previous studies have demonstrated that carotenoid-dependent traits can signal past parasite exposure, current levels of parasitism, or the ability of individuals to manage parasitic infections in the future. We examined repeated measures of carotenoid-dependent skin color and blood parasitism in American kestrels ( Falco sparverius) to distinguish whether coloration might signal current parasitism or the potential to deal with infections in the future. We found no evidence that coloration was related to current levels of parasitism in either sex. However, coloration of males significantly predicted their response to parasitism; males with bright orange coloration during prelaying, when mate choice is occurring, were more likely than dull yellow males to reduce their levels of infection by the time incubation began. Coloration during prelaying may advertise a male’s health later in the breeding season. For kestrels, the ability to predict future health would be highly beneficial given the male’s role in providing food to his mate and offspring. Coloration of females was not a significant predictor of parasitism in the future, and we provide several possible explanations for this result.

Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

2018-05-01

Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

The injury severity score or the new injury severity score for predicting mortality, intensive care unit admission and length of hospital stay: experience from a university hospital in a developing country.

PubMed

Tamim, Hala; Al Hazzouri, Adina Zeki; Mahfoud, Ziad; Atoui, Maria; El-Chemaly, Souheil

2008-01-01

Limited research has been performed to compare the predictive abilities of the injury severity score (ISS) and the new ISS (NISS) in the developing world. From January 2001 until January 2003 all trauma patients admitted to the American University of Beirut Medical Centre were enrolled. The statistical performance of the ISS/NISS in predicting mortality, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and length of hospital stay (LOS dichotomised as <10 or > or =10 days) was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration statistic. A total of 891 consecutive patients were enrolled. The ISS and NISS were equivalent in predicting survival, and both performed better in patients younger than 65 years of age. However, the ISS predicted ICU admission and LOS better than the NISS. However, these predictive abilities were lower for the geriatric trauma patients aged 65 years and above compared to the other age groups. There are conflicting results in the literature about the abilities of ISS and NISS to predict mortality. However, this is the first study to report that ISS has a superior ability in predicting both LOS and ICU admission. The scoring of trauma severity may need to be individualised to different countries and trauma systems.

How do individuals with Asperger syndrome respond to nonliteral language and inappropriate requests in computer-mediated communication?

PubMed

Rajendran, Gnanathusharan; Mitchell, Peter; Rickards, Hugh

2005-08-01

Computer-mediated communication in individuals with Asperger syndrome, Tourette syndrome and normal controls was explored with a program called Bubble Dialogue (Gray, Creighton, McMahon, and Cunninghamn (1991)) in which the users type text into speech bubbles. Two scenarios, based on Happé (1994) were adapted to investigate understanding of figure of speech and sarcasm, and a third, developed by ourselves, looked at responses to inappropriate requests (lending money and disclosing home address on a first meeting). Dialogue transcripts were assessed by 62 raters who were blind to the clinical diagnoses. Hierarchical linear modelling revealed that rated understanding of a figure of speech was predicted mainly by verbal ability and executive ability, as well as by clinical diagnosis, whereas handling inappropriate requests was predicted by age, verbal ability, executive ability and diagnosis. Notably, the Tourette comparison group showed better understanding than the Asperger group in interpreting a figure of speech and handling inappropriate requests, and differences between these groups were possibly attributable to individual differences in executive ability. In contrast, understanding sarcasm was predicted by age but not by either verbal ability, executive ability or clinical diagnosis. Evidently, there is a complicated relation between Asperger syndrome, verbal ability and executive abilities with respect to communicative performance.

Prediction of Hydrologic Characteristics for Ungauged Catchments to Support Hydroecological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, Nick R.; Kennard, Mark J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic variability is a fundamental driver of ecological processes and species distribution patterns within river systems, yet the paucity of gauges in many catchments means that streamflow data are often unavailable for ecological survey sites. Filling this data gap is an important challenge in hydroecological research. To address this gap, we first test the ability to spatially extrapolate hydrologic metrics calculated from gauged streamflow data to ungauged sites as a function of stream distance and catchment area. Second, we examine the ability of statistical models to predict flow regime metrics based on climate and catchment physiographic variables. Our assessment focused on Australia's largest catchment, the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). We found that hydrologic metrics were predictable only between sites within ˜25 km of one another. Beyond this, correlations between sites declined quickly. We found less than 40% of fish survey sites from a recent basin-wide monitoring program (n = 777 sites) to fall within this 25 km range, thereby greatly limiting the ability to utilize gauge data for direct spatial transposition of hydrologic metrics to biological survey sites. In contrast, statistical model-based transposition proved effective in predicting ecologically relevant aspects of the flow regime (including metrics describing central tendency, high- and low-flows intermittency, seasonality, and variability) across the entire gauge network (median R2 ˜ 0.54, range 0.39-0.94). Modeled hydrologic metrics thus offer a useful alternative to empirical data when examining biological survey data from ungauged sites. More widespread use of these statistical tools and modeled metrics could expand our understanding of flow-ecology relationships.

Improving Genomic Prediction in Cassava Field Experiments by Accounting for Interplot Competition

PubMed Central

Elias, Ani A.; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2018-01-01

Plants competing for available resources is an unavoidable phenomenon in a field. We conducted studies in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) in order to understand the pattern of this competition. Taking into account the competitive ability of genotypes while selecting parents for breeding advancement or commercialization can be very useful. We assumed that competition could occur at two levels: (i) the genotypic level, which we call interclonal, and (ii) the plot level irrespective of the type of genotype, which we call interplot competition or competition error. Modification in incidence matrices was applied in order to relate neighboring genotype/plot to the performance of a target genotype/plot with respect to its competitive ability. This was added into a genomic selection (GS) model to simultaneously predict the direct and competitive ability of a genotype. Predictability of the models was tested through a 10-fold cross-validation method repeated five times. The best model was chosen as the one with the lowest prediction root mean squared error (pRMSE) compared to that of the base model having no competitive component. Results from our real data studies indicated that <10% increase in accuracy was achieved with GS-interclonal competition model, but this value reached up to 25% with a GS-competition error model. We also found that the competitive influence of a cassava clone is not just limited to the adjacent neighbors but spreads beyond them. Through simulations, we found that a 26% increase of accuracy in estimating trait genotypic effect can be achieved even in the presence of high competitive variance. PMID:29358232

Improving Genomic Prediction in Cassava Field Experiments by Accounting for Interplot Competition.

PubMed

Elias, Ani A; Rabbi, Ismail; Kulakow, Peter; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2018-03-02

Plants competing for available resources is an unavoidable phenomenon in a field. We conducted studies in cassava ( Manihot esculenta Crantz) in order to understand the pattern of this competition. Taking into account the competitive ability of genotypes while selecting parents for breeding advancement or commercialization can be very useful. We assumed that competition could occur at two levels: (i) the genotypic level, which we call interclonal, and (ii) the plot level irrespective of the type of genotype, which we call interplot competition or competition error. Modification in incidence matrices was applied in order to relate neighboring genotype/plot to the performance of a target genotype/plot with respect to its competitive ability. This was added into a genomic selection (GS) model to simultaneously predict the direct and competitive ability of a genotype. Predictability of the models was tested through a 10-fold cross-validation method repeated five times. The best model was chosen as the one with the lowest prediction root mean squared error (pRMSE) compared to that of the base model having no competitive component. Results from our real data studies indicated that <10% increase in accuracy was achieved with GS-interclonal competition model, but this value reached up to 25% with a GS-competition error model. We also found that the competitive influence of a cassava clone is not just limited to the adjacent neighbors but spreads beyond them. Through simulations, we found that a 26% increase of accuracy in estimating trait genotypic effect can be achieved even in the presence of high competitive variance. Copyright © 2018 Elias et al.

Cognitive capitalism: the effect of cognitive ability on wealth, as mediated through scientific achievement and economic freedom.

PubMed

Rindermann, Heiner; Thompson, James

2011-06-01

Traditional economic theories stress the relevance of political, institutional, geographic, and historical factors for economic growth. In contrast, human-capital theories suggest that peoples' competences, mediated by technological progress, are the deciding factor in a nation's wealth. Using three large-scale assessments, we calculated cognitive-competence sums for the mean and for upper- and lower-level groups for 90 countries and compared the influence of each group's intellectual ability on gross domestic product. In our cross-national analyses, we applied different statistical methods (path analyses, bootstrapping) and measures developed by different research groups to various country samples and historical periods. Our results underscore the decisive relevance of cognitive ability--particularly of an intellectual class with high cognitive ability and accomplishments in science, technology, engineering, and math--for national wealth. Furthermore, this group's cognitive ability predicts the quality of economic and political institutions, which further determines the economic affluence of the nation. Cognitive resources enable the evolution of capitalism and the rise of wealth.

Computational neural networks in chemistry: Model free mapping devices for predicting chemical reactivity from molecular structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elrod, D.W.

1992-01-01

Computational neural networks (CNNs) are a computational paradigm inspired by the brain's massively parallel network of highly interconnected neurons. The power of computational neural networks derives not so much from their ability to model the brain as from their ability to learn by example and to map highly complex, nonlinear functions, without the need to explicitly specify the functional relationship. Two central questions about CNNs were investigated in the context of predicting chemical reactions: (1) the mapping properties of neural networks and (2) the representation of chemical information for use in CNNs. Chemical reactivity is here considered an example ofmore » a complex, nonlinear function of molecular structure. CNN's were trained using modifications of the back propagation learning rule to map a three dimensional response surface similar to those typically observed in quantitative structure-activity and structure-property relationships. The computational neural network's mapping of the response surface was found to be robust to the effects of training sample size, noisy data and intercorrelated input variables. The investigation of chemical structure representation led to the development of a molecular structure-based connection-table representation suitable for neural network training. An extension of this work led to a BE-matrix structure representation that was found to be general for several classes of reactions. The CNN prediction of chemical reactivity and regiochemistry was investigated for electrophilic aromatic substitution reactions, Markovnikov addition to alkenes, Saytzeff elimination from haloalkanes, Diels-Alder cycloaddition, and retro Diels-Alder ring opening reactions using these connectivity-matrix derived representations. The reaction predictions made by the CNNs were more accurate than those of an expert system and were comparable to predictions made by chemists.« less

Quantitative Prediction of Stone Fragility From Routine Dual Energy CT: Ex vivo proof of Feasibility.

PubMed

Ferrero, Andrea; Montoya, Juan C; Vaughan, Lisa E; Huang, Alice E; McKeag, Ian O; Enders, Felicity T; Williams, James C; McCollough, Cynthia H

2016-12-01

Previous studies have demonstrated a qualitative relationship between stone fragility and internal stone morphology. The goal of this study was to quantify morphologic features from dual-energy computed tomography (CT) images and assess their relationship to stone fragility. Thirty-three calcified urinary stones were scanned with micro-CT. Next, they were placed within torso-shaped water phantoms and scanned with the dual-energy CT stone composition protocol in routine use at our institution. Mixed low- and high-energy images were used to measure volume, surface roughness, and 12 metrics describing internal morphology for each stone. The ratios of low- to high-energy CT numbers were also measured. Subsequent to imaging, stone fragility was measured by disintegrating each stone in a controlled ex vivo experiment using an ultrasonic lithotripter and recording the time to comminution. A multivariable linear regression model was developed to predict time to comminution. The average stone volume was 300 mm 3 (range: 134-674 mm 3 ). The average comminution time measured ex vivo was 32 seconds (range: 7-115 seconds). Stone volume, dual-energy CT number ratio, and surface roughness were found to have the best combined predictive ability to estimate comminution time (adjusted R 2  = 0.58). The predictive ability of mixed dual-energy CT images, without use of the dual-energy CT number ratio, to estimate comminution time was slightly inferior, with an adjusted R 2 of 0.54. Dual-energy CT number ratios, volume, and morphologic metrics may provide a method for predicting stone fragility, as measured by time to comminution from ultrasonic lithotripsy. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decadal prediction skill using a high-resolution climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Coquart, Laure; Maisonnave, Éric; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie

2017-11-01

The ability of a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (with a horizontal resolution of a quarter of a degree in the ocean and of about 0.5° in the atmosphere) to predict the annual means of temperature, precipitation, sea-ice volume and extent is assessed based on initialized hindcasts over the 1993-2009 period. Significant skill in predicting sea surface temperatures is obtained, especially over the North Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. The Sea Ice Extent and volume are also reasonably predicted in winter (March) and summer (September). The model skill is mainly due to the external forcing associated with well-mixed greenhouse gases. A decrease in the global warming rate associated with a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is simulated by the model over a suite of 10-year periods when initialized from starting dates between 1999 and 2003. The model ability to predict regional change is investigated by focusing on the mid-90's Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre warming. The model simulates the North Atlantic warming associated with a meridional heat transport increase, a strengthening of the North Atlantic current and a deepening of the mixed layer over the Labrador Sea. The atmosphere plays a role in the warming through a modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: a negative sea level pressure anomaly, located south of the subpolar gyre is associated with a wind speed decrease over the subpolar gyre. This leads to a reduced oceanic heat-loss and favors a northward displacement of anomalously warm and salty subtropical water that both concur to the subpolar gyre warming. We finally conclude that the subpolar gyre warming is mainly triggered by ocean dynamics with a possible contribution of atmospheric circulation favoring its persistence.

Performance of the DiaRem Score for Predicting Diabetes Remission in Two Health Systems Following Bariatric Surgery Procedures in Hispanic and non-Hispanic White Patients.

PubMed

Craig Wood, G; Horwitz, Daniel; Still, Christopher D; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Benotti, Peter; Parikh, Manish; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether the DiaRem, a score that predicts type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission following roux-en-y gastric bariatric surgery (RYGB), also predicts remission following laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) and laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) in white and Hispanic patients. While bariatric surgery is highly effective in reversing insulin resistance, there are patients for whom surgery will not lead to remission. To date, there is no score for predicting remission following LAGB or LSG surgery. Additionally, there is little known about how to predict whether Hispanic patients will experience remission. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of white and Hispanic patients with T2D who received bariatric surgery. There were 361 white and 130 Hispanic patients among whom 328 had RYGB surgery, 107 had LSG surgery, and 56 had LAGB surgery. We used age, diabetes treatment, and hemoglobin A1c to calculate DiaRem scores. Mann-Whitney U test was used to determine the association between DiaRem scores and remission. Area under the receiver operant curve (AUC) was used to assess the ability of the DiaRem to discriminate between patients who did and did not remit. The DiaRem was associated with partial remission in all surgery types for white and Hispanic patients (Mann-Whitney, p < 0.001). The DiaRem had moderate to high discriminant ability (AUC > 0.70) for all surgical and racial/ethnic groups. The DiaRem distinguishes between patients likely and unlikely to experience remission, informing expectations of patients making T2D treatment decisions.

External validity of two nomograms for predicting distant brain failure after radiosurgery for brain metastases in a bi-institutional independent patient cohort.

PubMed

Prabhu, Roshan S; Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Miller, Katherine R; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Burri, Stuart H

2018-03-01

Patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases (BM) are at increased risk of distant brain failure (DBF). Two nomograms have been recently published to predict individualized risk of DBF after SRS. The goal of this study was to assess the external validity of these nomograms in an independent patient cohort. The records of consecutive patients with BM treated with SRS at Levine Cancer Institute and Emory University between 2005 and 2013 were reviewed. Three validation cohorts were generated based on the specific nomogram or recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) entry criteria: Wake Forest nomogram (n = 281), Canadian nomogram (n = 282), and Canadian RPA (n = 303) validation cohorts. Freedom from DBF at 1-year in the Wake Forest study was 30% compared with 50% in the validation cohort. The validation c-index for both the 6-month and 9-month freedom from DBF Wake Forest nomograms was 0.55, indicating poor discrimination ability, and the goodness-of-fit test for both nomograms was highly significant (p < 0.001), indicating poor calibration. The 1-year actuarial DBF in the Canadian nomogram study was 43.9% compared with 50.9% in the validation cohort. The validation c-index for the Canadian 1-year DBF nomogram was 0.56, and the goodness-of-fit test was also highly significant (p < 0.001). The validation accuracy and c-index of the Canadian RPA classification was 53% and 0.61, respectively. The Wake Forest and Canadian nomograms for predicting risk of DBF after SRS were found to have limited predictive ability in an independent bi-institutional validation cohort. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent patient cohorts.

Quantitative prediction of stone fragility from routine single and dual energy CT: proof of feasibility

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Andrea; Montoya, Juan C.; Vaughan, Lisa E.; Huang, Alice E.; McKeag, Ian O.; Enders, Felicity T.; Williams, James C.; McCollough, Cynthia H.

2016-01-01

Rationale and Objectives Previous studies have demonstrated a qualitative relationship between stone fragility and internal stone morphology. The goal of this study was to quantify morphological features from dual-energy CT images and assess their relationship to stone fragility. Materials and Methods Thirty-three calcified urinary stones were scanned with micro CT. Next, they were placed within torso-shaped water phantoms and scanned with the dual-energy CT stone composition protocol in routine use at our institution. Mixed low-and high-energy images were used to measure volume, surface roughness, and 12 metrics describing internal morphology for each stone. The ratios of low- to high-energy CT numbers were also measured. Subsequent to imaging, stone fragility was measured by disintegrating each stone in a controlled ex vivo experiment using an ultrasonic lithotripter and recording the time to comminution. A multivariable linear regression model was developed to predict time to comminution. Results The average stone volume was 300 mm3 (range 134–674 mm3). The average comminution time measured ex vivo was 32 s (range 7–115 s). Stone volume, dual-energy CT number ratio and surface roughness were found to have the best combined predictive ability to estimate comminution time (adjusted R2= 0.58). The predictive ability of mixed dual-energy CT images, without use of the dual-energy CT number ratio, to estimate comminution time was slightly inferior, with an adjusted R2 of 0.54. Conclusion Dual-energy CT number ratios, volume, and morphological metrics may provide a method for predicting stone fragility, as measured by time to comminution from ultrasonic lithotripsy. PMID:27717761

Approximating high-dimensional dynamics by barycentric coordinates with linear programming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirata, Yoshito, E-mail: yoshito@sat.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki

The increasing development of novel methods and techniques facilitates the measurement of high-dimensional time series but challenges our ability for accurate modeling and predictions. The use of a general mathematical model requires the inclusion of many parameters, which are difficult to be fitted for relatively short high-dimensional time series observed. Here, we propose a novel method to accurately model a high-dimensional time series. Our method extends the barycentric coordinates to high-dimensional phase space by employing linear programming, and allowing the approximation errors explicitly. The extension helps to produce free-running time-series predictions that preserve typical topological, dynamical, and/or geometric characteristics ofmore » the underlying attractors more accurately than the radial basis function model that is widely used. The method can be broadly applied, from helping to improve weather forecasting, to creating electronic instruments that sound more natural, and to comprehensively understanding complex biological data.« less

Approximating high-dimensional dynamics by barycentric coordinates with linear programming.

PubMed

Hirata, Yoshito; Shiro, Masanori; Takahashi, Nozomu; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Mas, Paloma

2015-01-01

The increasing development of novel methods and techniques facilitates the measurement of high-dimensional time series but challenges our ability for accurate modeling and predictions. The use of a general mathematical model requires the inclusion of many parameters, which are difficult to be fitted for relatively short high-dimensional time series observed. Here, we propose a novel method to accurately model a high-dimensional time series. Our method extends the barycentric coordinates to high-dimensional phase space by employing linear programming, and allowing the approximation errors explicitly. The extension helps to produce free-running time-series predictions that preserve typical topological, dynamical, and/or geometric characteristics of the underlying attractors more accurately than the radial basis function model that is widely used. The method can be broadly applied, from helping to improve weather forecasting, to creating electronic instruments that sound more natural, and to comprehensively understanding complex biological data.

Global connectivity of prefrontal cortex predicts cognitive control and intelligence

PubMed Central

Cole, Michael W.; Yarkoni, Tal; Repovs, Grega; Anticevic, Alan; Braver, Todd S.

2012-01-01

Control of thought and behavior is fundamental to human intelligence. Evidence suggests a fronto-parietal brain network implements such cognitive control across diverse contexts. We identify a mechanism – global connectivity – by which components of this network might coordinate control of other networks. A lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) region’s activity was found to predict performance in a high control demand working memory task, and also to exhibit high global connectivity. Critically, global connectivity in this LPFC region, involving connections both within and outside the fronto-parietal network, showed a highly selective relationship with individual differences in fluid intelligence. These findings suggest LPFC is a global hub with a brain-wide influence that facilitates the ability to implement control processes central to human intelligence. PMID:22745498

Analysis of a High-Lift Multi-Element Airfoil using a Navier-Stokes Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, Mark E.

1995-01-01

A thin-layer Navier-Stokes code, CFL3D, was utilized to compute the flow over a high-lift multi-element airfoil. This study was conducted to improve the prediction of high-lift flowfields using various turbulence models and improved glidding techniques. An overset Chimera grid system is used to model the three element airfoil geometry. The effects of wind tunnel wall modeling, changes to the grid density and distribution, and embedded grids are discussed. Computed pressure and lift coefficients using Spalart-Allmaras, Baldwin-Barth, and Menter's kappa-omega - Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence models are compared with experimental data. The ability of CFL3D to predict the effects on lift coefficient due to changes in Reynolds number changes is also discussed.

The predictive performance of a path-dependent exotic-option credit risk model in the emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Dar-Hsin; Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David; Zaabar, Rim

2011-06-01

Most empirical research of the path-dependent, exotic-option credit risk model focuses on developed markets. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study investigates the bankruptcy prediction performance of the path-dependent, barrier option model in the emerging market. We adopt Duan's (1994) [11], (2000) [12] transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method to directly estimate the unobserved model parameters, and compare the predictive ability of the barrier option model to the commonly adopted credit risk model, Merton's model. Our empirical findings show that the barrier option model is more powerful than Merton's model in predicting bankruptcy in the emerging market. Moreover, we find that the barrier option model predicts bankruptcy much better for highly-leveraged firms. Finally, our findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the credit risk model can be improved by higher asset liquidity and greater financial transparency.

DNA methylation-based age prediction from various tissues and body fluids

PubMed Central

Jung, Sang-Eun; Shin, Kyoung-Jin; Lee, Hwan Young

2017-01-01

Aging is a natural and gradual process in human life. It is influenced by heredity, environment, lifestyle, and disease. DNA methylation varies with age, and the ability to predict the age of donor using DNA from evidence materials at a crime scene is of considerable value in forensic investigations. Recently, many studies have reported age prediction models based on DNA methylation from various tissues and body fluids. Those models seem to be very promising because of their high prediction accuracies. In this review, the changes of age-associated DNA methylation and the age prediction models for various tissues and body fluids were examined, and then the applicability of the DNA methylation-based age prediction method to the forensic investigations was discussed. This will improve the understandings about DNA methylation markers and their potential to be used as biomarkers in the forensic field, as well as the clinical field. PMID:28946940

Strainrange partitioning behavior of the nickel-base superalloys, Rene' 80 and in 100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, G. R.; Nachtigall, A. J.

1978-01-01

A study was made to assess the ability of the method of Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) to both correlate and predict high-temperature, low cycle fatigue lives of nickel base superalloys for gas turbine applications. The partitioned strainrange versus life relationships for uncoated Rene' 80 and cast IN 100 were also determined from the ductility normalized-Strainrange Partitioning equations. These were used to predict the cyclic lives of the baseline tests. The life predictability of the method was verified for cast IN 100 by applying the baseline results to the cyclic life prediction of a series of complex strain cycling tests with multiple hold periods at constant strain. It was concluded that the method of SRP can correlate and predict the cyclic lives of laboratory specimens of the nickel base superalloys evaluated in this program.

Preschool Executive Functioning Abilities Predict Early Mathematics Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Caron A. C.; Pritchard, Verena E.; Woodward, Lianne J.

2010-01-01

Impairments in executive function have been documented in school-age children with mathematical learning difficulties. However, the utility and specificity of preschool executive function abilities in predicting later mathematical achievement are poorly understood. This study examined linkages between children's developing executive function…

Examining the Validity of Self-Report: Middle-Level Singers' Ability to Predict and Assess Their Sight-Singing Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darrow, Alice-Ann; Marsh, Kerry

2006-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine choral students' ability to predict and evaluate their sight-singing skills. Participants were asked to assign a rating based on how well they predicted they would sight-sing five musical examples. Following the singing of each example, participants were asked to evaluate their sight-singing…

Natal movement in juvenile Atlantic salmon: a body size-dependent strategy?

Treesearch

Sigurd Einum; Anders G. Finstad; Grethe Robertsen; Keith H. Nislow; Simon McKelvey; John D. Armstrong

2012-01-01

If competitive ability depends on body size, then the optimal natal movement from areas of high local population density can also be predicted to be size-dependent. Specifically, small, competitively-inferior individuals would be expected to benefit most from moving to areas of lower local density. Here we evaluate whether individual variation in natal movement...

Multi-criteria comparative evaluation of spallation reaction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrianov, Andrey; Andrianova, Olga; Konobeev, Alexandr; Korovin, Yury; Kuptsov, Ilya

2017-09-01

This paper presents an approach to a comparative evaluation of the predictive ability of spallation reaction models based on widely used, well-proven multiple-criteria decision analysis methods (MAVT/MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) and the results of such a comparison for 17 spallation reaction models in the presence of the interaction of high-energy protons with natPb.

Deep Learning Questions Can Help Selection of High Ability Candidates for Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellanby, Jane; Cortina-Borja, Mario; Stein, John

2009-01-01

Selection of students for places at universities mainly depends on GCSE grades and predictions of A-level grades, both of which tend to favour applicants from independent schools. We have therefore developed a new type of test that would measure candidates' "deep learning" approach since this assesses the motivation and creative thinking…

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ABILITY OF 3-D AIR QUALITY MODELS WITH CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM MODELS TO PREDICT AEROSOL NO3

EPA Science Inventory

The partitioning of total nitrate (TNO3) and total ammonium (TNH4) between gas and aerosol phases is studied with two thermodynamic equilibrium models, ISORROPIA and AIM, and three datasets: high time-resolution measurement data from the 1999 Atlanta SuperSite Experiment and from...

Student Input, Student Involvement, and College Environment Factors Impacting the Choice of Academic Major.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coperthwaite, Corby A.; Knight, William E.

This study investigated the ability of student inputs, student involvements, and college environments to predict seven groups of academic majors. The research was conducted using a sample of college sophomores extracted from High School and Beyond 1982 follow-up cohort, N=43,614 (weighted). Among the findings of the hierarchical discriminant…

What Protects Rejected Adolescents from Also Being Bullied by Their Peers? The Moderating Role of Peer-Valued Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knack, Jennifer M.; Tsar, Vasilinka; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Hymel, Shelley; McDougall, Patricia

2012-01-01

Adolescents rejected by peers are often targets of bullying. However, peer rejection is not a sure path to victimization. We examined whether characteristics valued by peers (i.e., attractiveness, wealth, academic, and athletic ability) moderated the relationship between peer rejection and victimization. We predicted rejected adolescents high on…

PREDICTING NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT LOADINGS TO STREAMS FROM LANDSCAPE METRICS: A MULTIPLE WATERSHED STUDY FROM THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

There has been an increasing interest in evaluating the relative condition or health of water resources at regional and national scales. Of particular interest is an ability to identify those areas where surface and ground waters have the greatest potential for high levels of ...

Prediction of Peaks of Seasonal Influenza in Military Health-Care Data

PubMed Central

Buczak, Anna L.; Baugher, Benjamin; Guven, Erhan; Moniz, Linda; Babin, Steven M.; Chretien, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

Influenza is a highly contagious disease that causes seasonal epidemics with significant morbidity and mortality. The ability to predict influenza peak several weeks in advance would allow for timely preventive public health planning and interventions to be used to mitigate these outbreaks. Because influenza may also impact the operational readiness of active duty personnel, the US military places a high priority on surveillance and preparedness for seasonal outbreaks. A method for creating models for predicting peak influenza visits per total health-care visits (ie, activity) weeks in advance has been developed using advanced data mining techniques on disparate epidemiological and environmental data. The model results are presented and compared with those of other popular data mining classifiers. By rigorously testing the model on data not used in its development, it is shown that this technique can predict the week of highest influenza activity for a specific region with overall better accuracy than other methods examined in this article. PMID:27127415

Predicting New Materials for Hydrogen Storage Application

PubMed Central

Vajeeston, Ponniah; Ravindran, Ponniah; Fjellvåg, Helmer

2009-01-01

Knowledge about the ground-state crystal structure is a prerequisite for the rational understanding of solid-state properties of new materials. To act as an efficient energy carrier, hydrogen should be absorbed and desorbed in materials easily and in high quantities. Owing to the complexity in structural arrangements and difficulties involved in establishing hydrogen positions by x-ray diffraction methods, the structural information of hydrides are very limited compared to other classes of materials (like oxides, intermetallics, etc.). This can be overcome by conducting computational simulations combined with selected experimental study which can save environment, money, and man power. The predicting capability of first-principles density functional theory (DFT) is already well recognized and in many cases structural and thermodynamic properties of single/multi component system are predicted. This review will focus on possible new classes of materials those have high hydrogen content, demonstrate the ability of DFT to predict crystal structure, and search for potential meta-stable phases. Stabilization of such meta-stable phases is also discussed.

QRS analysis using wavelet transformation for the prediction of response to cardiac resynchronization therapy: a prospective pilot study.

PubMed

Vassilikos, Vassilios P; Mantziari, Lilian; Dakos, Georgios; Kamperidis, Vasileios; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Chatzizisis, Yiannis S; Kalpidis, Panagiotis; Theofilogiannakos, Efstratios; Paraskevaidis, Stelios; Karvounis, Haralambos; Mochlas, Sotirios; Maglaveras, Nikolaos; Styliadis, Ioannis H

2014-01-01

Wider QRS and left bundle branch block morphology are related to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). A novel time-frequency analysis of the QRS complex may provide additional information in predicting response to CRT. Signal-averaged electrocardiograms were prospectively recorded, before CRT, in orthogonal leads and QRS decomposition in three frequency bands was performed using the Morlet wavelet transformation. Thirty eight patients (age 65±10years, 31 males) were studied. CRT responders (n=28) had wider baseline QRS compared to non-responders and lower QRS energies in all frequency bands. The combination of QRS duration and mean energy in the high frequency band had the best predicting ability (AUC 0.833, 95%CI 0.705-0.962, p=0.002) followed by the maximum energy in the high frequency band (AUC 0.811, 95%CI 0.663-0.960, p=0.004). Wavelet transformation of the QRS complex is useful in predicting response to CRT. © 2013.

Noise Prediction of NASA SR2 Propeller in Transonic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaro, Michele De; Caridi, Domenico; Nicola, Carlo De

2010-09-01

In this paper we propose a numerical approach for noise prediction of high-speed propellers for Turboprop applications. It is based on a RANS approach for aerodynamic simulation coupled with Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) Acoustic Analogy for propeller noise prediction. The test-case geometry adopted for this study is the 8-bladed NASA SR2 transonic cruise propeller, and simulated Sound Pressure Levels (SPL) have been compared with experimental data available from Wind Tunnel and Flight Tests for different microphone locations in a range of Mach numbers between 0.78 and 0.85 and rotational velocities between 7000 and 9000 rpm. Results show the ability of this approach to predict noise to within a few dB of experimental data. Moreover corrections are provided to be applied to acoustic numerical results in order for them to be compared with Wind Tunnel and Flight Test experimental data, as well computational grid requirements and guidelines in order to perform complete aerodynamic and aeroacoustic calculations with highly competitive computational cost.

Predicting reading ability in teenagers who are deaf or hard of hearing: A longitudinal analysis of language and reading.

PubMed

Worsfold, Sarah; Mahon, Merle; Pimperton, Hannah; Stevenson, Jim; Kennedy, Colin

2018-06-01

Deaf and hard of hearing (D/HH) children and young people are known to show group-level deficits in spoken language and reading abilities relative to their hearing peers. However, there is little evidence on the longitudinal predictive relationships between language and reading in this population. To determine the extent to which differences in spoken language ability in childhood predict reading ability in D/HH adolescents. and procedures: Participants were drawn from a population-based cohort study and comprised 53 D/HH teenagers, who used spoken language, and a comparison group of 38 normally hearing teenagers. All had completed standardised measures of spoken language (expression and comprehension) and reading (accuracy and comprehension) at 6-10 and 13-19 years of age. and results: Forced entry stepwise regression showed that, after taking reading ability at age 8 years into account, language scores at age 8 years did not add significantly to the prediction of Reading Accuracy z-scores at age 17 years (change in R 2  = 0.01, p = .459) but did make a significant contribution to the prediction of Reading Comprehension z-scores at age 17 years (change in R 2  = 0.17, p < .001). and implications: In D/HH individuals who are spoken language users, expressive and receptive language skills in middle childhood predict reading comprehension ability in adolescence. Continued intervention to support language development beyond primary school has the potential to benefit reading comprehension and hence educational access for D/HH adolescents. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ability of preoperative 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging to predict the absence of side-specific extracapsular extension of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Hara, Tomohiko; Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Tohru; Komiyama, Motokiyo; Kawahara, Takashi; Manabe, Tomoko; Miyake, Mototaka; Arai, Eri; Kanai, Yae; Fujimoto, Hiroyuki

2013-10-01

Recent studies have shown an improvement in prostate cancer diagnosis with the use of 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging. We retrospectively assessed the ability of this imaging technique to predict side-specific extracapsular extension of prostate cancer. From October 2007 to August 2011, prostatectomy was carried out in 396 patients after preoperative 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging. Among these, 132 (primary sample) and 134 patients (validation sample) underwent 12-core prostate biopsy at the National Cancer Center Hospital of Tokyo, Japan, and at other institutions, respectively. In the primary dataset, univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to predict side-specific extracapsular extension using variables determined preoperatively, including 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging findings (T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted imaging). A prediction model was then constructed and applied to the validation study sample. Multivariate analysis identified four significant independent predictors (P < 0.05), including a biopsy Gleason score of ≥8, positive 3.0-Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging findings, ≥2 positive biopsy cores on each side and a maximum percentage of positive cores ≥31% on each side. The negative predictive value was 93.9% in the combination model with these four predictors, meanwhile the positive predictive value was 33.8%. Good reproducibility of these four significant predictors and the combination model was observed in the validation study sample. The side-specific extracapsular extension prediction by the biopsy Gleason score and factors associated with tumor location, including a positive 3.0-Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging finding, have a high negative predictive value, but a low positive predictive value. © 2013 The Japanese Urological Association.

The mimetic transition: a simulation study of the evolution of learning by imitation.

PubMed

Higgs, P G

2000-07-07

Culturally transmitted ideas or memes must have had a large effect on the survival and fecundity of early humans. Those with better techniques of obtaining food and making tools, clothing and shelters would have had a substantial advantage. It has been proposed that memes can explain why our species has an unusually large brain and high cognitive ability: the brain evolved because of selection for the ability to imitate. This article presents an evolutionary model of a population in which culturally transmitted memes can have both positive and negative effects on the fitness of individuals. It is found that genes for increased imitative ability are selectively favoured. The model predicts that imitative ability increases slowly until a mimetic transition occurs where memes become able to spread like an epidemic. At this point there is a dramatic increase in the imitative ability, the number of memes known per individual and the mean fitness of the population. Selection for increased imitative ability is able to overcome substantial selection against increased brain size in some cases.

The mimetic transition: a simulation study of the evolution of learning by imitation.

PubMed Central

Higgs, P G

2000-01-01

Culturally transmitted ideas or memes must have had a large effect on the survival and fecundity of early humans. Those with better techniques of obtaining food and making tools, clothing and shelters would have had a substantial advantage. It has been proposed that memes can explain why our species has an unusually large brain and high cognitive ability: the brain evolved because of selection for the ability to imitate. This article presents an evolutionary model of a population in which culturally transmitted memes can have both positive and negative effects on the fitness of individuals. It is found that genes for increased imitative ability are selectively favoured. The model predicts that imitative ability increases slowly until a mimetic transition occurs where memes become able to spread like an epidemic. At this point there is a dramatic increase in the imitative ability, the number of memes known per individual and the mean fitness of the population. Selection for increased imitative ability is able to overcome substantial selection against increased brain size in some cases. PMID:10972132

Comparing machine learning and logistic regression methods for predicting hypertension using a combination of gene expression and next-generation sequencing data.

PubMed

Held, Elizabeth; Cape, Joshua; Tintle, Nathan

2016-01-01

Machine learning methods continue to show promise in the analysis of data from genetic association studies because of the high number of variables relative to the number of observations. However, few best practices exist for the application of these methods. We extend a recently proposed supervised machine learning approach for predicting disease risk by genotypes to be able to incorporate gene expression data and rare variants. We then apply 2 different versions of the approach (radial and linear support vector machines) to simulated data from Genetic Analysis Workshop 19 and compare performance to logistic regression. Method performance was not radically different across the 3 methods, although the linear support vector machine tended to show small gains in predictive ability relative to a radial support vector machine and logistic regression. Importantly, as the number of genes in the models was increased, even when those genes contained causal rare variants, model predictive ability showed a statistically significant decrease in performance for both the radial support vector machine and logistic regression. The linear support vector machine showed more robust performance to the inclusion of additional genes. Further work is needed to evaluate machine learning approaches on larger samples and to evaluate the relative improvement in model prediction from the incorporation of gene expression data.

Fanconi anemia gene editing by the CRISPR/Cas9 system.

PubMed

Osborn, Mark J; Gabriel, Richard; Webber, Beau R; DeFeo, Anthony P; McElroy, Amber N; Jarjour, Jordan; Starker, Colby G; Wagner, John E; Joung, J Keith; Voytas, Daniel F; von Kalle, Christof; Schmidt, Manfred; Blazar, Bruce R; Tolar, Jakub

2015-02-01

Genome engineering with designer nucleases is a rapidly progressing field, and the ability to correct human gene mutations in situ is highly desirable. We employed fibroblasts derived from a patient with Fanconi anemia as a model to test the ability of the clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats/Cas9 nuclease system to mediate gene correction. We show that the Cas9 nuclease and nickase each resulted in gene correction, but the nickase, because of its ability to preferentially mediate homology-directed repair, resulted in a higher frequency of corrected clonal isolates. To assess the off-target effects, we used both a predictive software platform to identify intragenic sequences of homology as well as a genome-wide screen utilizing linear amplification-mediated PCR. We observed no off-target activity and show RNA-guided endonuclease candidate sites that do not possess low sequence complexity function in a highly specific manner. Collectively, we provide proof of principle for precision genome editing in Fanconi anemia, a DNA repair-deficient human disorder.

External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment.

PubMed

Ovesen, C; Christensen, A; Nielsen, J K; Christensen, H

2013-11-01

Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasminogen activator between 2009 and 2011 were included. Upon admission all patients underwent physical and neurological examination using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale along with non-contrast CT scans and CT angiography. Patients were followed up through the Outpatient Clinic and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96; p<0.001) and good outcome (mRS 0-2) (AUC-ROC: 0.79; 95% CI 0.73-0.85; p<0.001). When only patients with M1 occlusions were selected the DRAGON scale provided good discriminative capability (AUC-ROC: 0.89; 95% CI 0.78-1.0; p=0.003) for highly unfavourable outcome. We confirmed the validity of the DRAGON scale in predicting outcome after thrombolysis treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Encompassing receptor flexibility in virtual screening using ensemble docking-based hybrid QSAR: discovery of novel phytochemicals for BACE1 inhibition.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Sandipan; Ramachandran, Balaji; Basu, Soumalee

2014-10-01

Mimicking receptor flexibility during receptor-ligand binding is a challenging task in computational drug design since it is associated with a large increase in the conformational search space. In the present study, we have devised an in silico design strategy incorporating receptor flexibility in virtual screening to identify potential lead compounds as inhibitors for flexible proteins. We have considered BACE1 (β-secretase), a key target protease from a therapeutic perspective for Alzheimer's disease, as the highly flexible receptor. The protein undergoes significant conformational transitions from open to closed form upon ligand binding, which makes it a difficult target for inhibitor design. We have designed a hybrid structure-activity model containing both ligand based descriptors and energetic descriptors obtained from molecular docking based on a dataset of structurally diverse BACE1 inhibitors. An ensemble of receptor conformations have been used in the docking study, further improving the prediction ability of the model. The designed model that shows significant prediction ability judged by several statistical parameters has been used to screen an in house developed 3-D structural library of 731 phytochemicals. 24 highly potent, novel BACE1 inhibitors with predicted activity (Ki) ≤ 50 nM have been identified. Detailed analysis reveals pharmacophoric features of these novel inhibitors required to inhibit BACE1.

Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

PubMed

Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

2016-06-01

Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Euler Technology Assessment for Preliminary Aircraft Design: Compressibility Predictions by Employing the Cartesian Unstructured Grid SPLITFLOW Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finley, Dennis B.; Karman, Steve L., Jr.

1996-01-01

The objective of the second phase of the Euler Technology Assessment program was to evaluate the ability of Euler computational fluid dynamics codes to predict compressible flow effects over a generic fighter wind tunnel model. This portion of the study was conducted by Lockheed Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems, using an in-house Cartesian-grid code called SPLITFLOW. The Cartesian grid technique offers several advantages, including ease of volume grid generation and reduced number of cells compared to other grid schemes. SPLITFLOW also includes grid adaption of the volume grid during the solution to resolve high-gradient regions. The SPLITFLOW code predictions of configuration forces and moments are shown to be adequate for preliminary design, including predictions of sideslip effects and the effects of geometry variations at low and high angles-of-attack. The transonic pressure prediction capabilities of SPLITFLOW are shown to be improved over subsonic comparisons. The time required to generate the results from initial surface data is on the order of several hours, including grid generation, which is compatible with the needs of the design environment.

The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years.

PubMed

Thomas, Mridul K; Fontana, Simone; Reyes, Marta; Kehoe, Michael; Pomati, Francesco

2018-05-01

Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R 2 decreased from 0.89 at 4 hours to 0.74 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Critical analysis of 3-D organoid in vitro cell culture models for high-throughput drug candidate toxicity assessments.

PubMed

Astashkina, Anna; Grainger, David W

2014-04-01

Drug failure due to toxicity indicators remains among the primary reasons for staggering drug attrition rates during clinical studies and post-marketing surveillance. Broader validation and use of next-generation 3-D improved cell culture models are expected to improve predictive power and effectiveness of drug toxicological predictions. However, after decades of promising research significant gaps remain in our collective ability to extract quality human toxicity information from in vitro data using 3-D cell and tissue models. Issues, challenges and future directions for the field to improve drug assay predictive power and reliability of 3-D models are reviewed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Why Do Spatial Abilities Predict Mathematical Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tosto, Maria Grazia; Hanscombe, Ken B.; Haworth, Claire M. A.; Davis, Oliver S. P.; Petrill, Stephen A.; Dale, Philip S.; Malykh, Sergey; Plomin, Robert; Kovas, Yulia

2014-01-01

Spatial ability predicts performance in mathematics and eventual expertise in science, technology and engineering. Spatial skills have also been shown to rely on neuronal networks partially shared with mathematics. Understanding the nature of this association can inform educational practices and intervention for mathematical underperformance.…

Contributions of early cortical processing and reading ability to functional status in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Carrión, Ricardo E; Cornblatt, Barbara A; McLaughlin, Danielle; Chang, Jeremy; Auther, Andrea M; Olsen, Ruth H; Javitt, Daniel C

2015-05-01

There is a growing recognition that individuals at clinical high risk need intervention for functional impairments, along with emerging psychosis, as the majority of clinical high risk (CHR) individuals show persistent deficits in social and role functioning regardless of transition to psychosis. Recent studies have demonstrated reduced reading ability as a potential cause of functional disability in schizophrenia, related to underlying deficits in generation of mismatch negativity (MMN). The present study extends these findings to subjects at CHR. The sample consisted of 34 CHR individuals and 33 healthy comparison subjects (CNTLs) from the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) Program at the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. At baseline, reading measures were collected, along with MMN to pitch, duration, and intensity deviants, and measures of neurocognition, and social and role (academic/work) functioning. CHR subjects showed impairments in reading ability, neurocognition, and MMN generation, relative to CNTLs. Lower-amplitude MMN responses were correlated with worse reading ability, slower processing speed, and poorer social and role functioning. However, when entered into a simultaneous regression, only reduced responses to deviance in sound duration and volume predicted poor social and role functioning, respectively. Deficits in reading ability exist even prior to illness onset in schizophrenia and may represent a decline in performance from prior abilities. As in schizophrenia, deficits are related to impaired MMN generation, suggesting specific contributions of sensory-level impairment to neurocognitive processes related to social and role function. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning to predict is spared in mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Baker, Rosalind; Bentham, Peter; Kourtzi, Zoe

2015-10-01

Learning the statistics of the environment is critical for predicting upcoming events. However, little is known about how we translate previous knowledge about scene regularities to sensory predictions. Here, we ask whether patients with mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease (MCI-AD) that are known to have spared implicit but impaired explicit recognition memory are able to learn temporal regularities and predict upcoming events. We tested the ability of MCI-AD patients and age-matched controls to predict the orientation of a test stimulus following exposure to sequences of leftwards or rightwards oriented gratings. Our results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates the ability to predict an upcoming stimulus in both MCI-AD patients and controls. Further, we show that executive cognitive control may account for individual variability in predictive learning. That is, we observed significant positive correlations of performance in attentional and working memory tasks with post-training performance in the prediction task. Taken together, these results suggest a mediating role of circuits involved in cognitive control (i.e. frontal circuits) that may support the ability for predictive learning in MCI-AD.

Prognostic factors for work ability in women with chronic low back pain consulting primary health care: a 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Nordeman, Lena; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Mannerkorpi, Kaisa

2014-05-01

To investigate prognostic factors for future work ability in women with chronic low back pain (CLBP) consulting primary health care. A 2-year prospective longitudinal cohort study of female patients with CLBP within the primary health care was conducted. Patients were assessed at the first assessment and after 2 years. Prognostic factors for work ability (yes/no) were analyzed by multivariate regression. A total of 130 patients were included at first assessment. After 2 years, 123 patients (95%) were followed up. The 6-minute walk test, depression, and earlier work ability predicted work ability at the 2-year follow-up. A nomogram was constructed to assess the probability of future work ability. The 6-minute walk test, work ability, and depression predicted work ability for women with CLBP after 2 years.

Cognition and mortality in older people: the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

PubMed

Connors, Michael H; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Xu, Jing; Draper, Brian; Brodaty, Henry

2015-11-01

Both cognitive ability and cognitive decline have been shown to predict mortality in older people. As dementia, a major form of cognitive decline, has an established association with shorter survival, it is unclear the extent to which cognitive ability and cognitive decline predict mortality in the absence of dementia. To determine whether cognitive ability and decline in cognitive ability predict mortality in older individuals without dementia. The Sydney Memory and Ageing Study is an observational population-based cohort study. Participants completed detailed neuropsychological assessments and medical examinations to assess for risk factors such as depression, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, smoking and physical activity. Participants were regularly assessed at 2-year intervals over 8 years. A community sample in Sydney, Australia. One thousand and thirty-seven elderly people without dementia. Overall, 236 (22.8%) participants died within 8 years. Both cognitive ability at baseline and decline in cognitive ability over 2 years predicted mortality. Decline in cognitive ability, but not baseline cognitive ability, was a significant predictor of mortality when depression and other medical risk factors were controlled for. These relationships also held when excluding incident cases of dementia. The findings indicate that decline in cognition is a robust predictor of mortality in older people without dementia at a population level. This relationship is not accounted for by co-morbid depression or other established biomedical risk factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Cognitive ability in young adulthood predicts risk of early-onset dementia in Finnish men.

PubMed

Rantalainen, Ville; Lahti, Jari; Henriksson, Markus; Kajantie, Eero; Eriksson, Johan G; Räikkönen, Katri

2018-06-06

To test if the Finnish Defence Forces Basic Intellectual Ability Test scores at 20.1 years predicted risk of organic dementia or Alzheimer disease (AD). Dementia was defined as inpatient or outpatient diagnosis of organic dementia or AD risk derived from Hospital Discharge or Causes of Death Registers in 2,785 men from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study, divided based on age at first diagnosis into early onset (<65 years) or late onset (≥65 years). The Finnish Defence Forces Basic Intellectual Ability Test comprises verbal, arithmetic, and visuospatial subtests and a total score (scores transformed into a mean of 100 and SD of 15). We used Cox proportional hazard models and adjusted for age at testing, childhood socioeconomic status, mother's age at delivery, parity, participant's birthweight, education, and stroke or coronary heart disease diagnosis. Lower cognitive ability total and verbal ability (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD disadvantage >1.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.63) scores predicted higher early-onset any dementia risk across the statistical models; arithmetic and visuospatial ability scores were similarly associated with early-onset any dementia risk, but these associations weakened after covariate adjustments (HR per 1 SD disadvantage >1.57, 95% CI 0.96-2.57). All associations were rendered nonsignificant when we adjusted for participant's education. Cognitive ability did not predict late-onset dementia risk. These findings reinforce previous suggestions that lower cognitive ability in early life is a risk factor for early-onset dementia. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

Students' tripartite efficacy beliefs in high school physical education: within- and cross-domain relations with motivational processes and leisure-time physical activity.

PubMed

Jackson, Ben; Whipp, Peter R; Chua, K L Peter; Dimmock, James A; Hagger, Martin S

2013-02-01

Within instructional settings, individuals form relational efficacy appraisals that complement their self-efficacy beliefs. In high school physical education (PE), for instance, students develop a level of confidence in their teacher's capabilities, as well as estimating how confident they think their teacher is in their (i.e., the students') ability. Grounded in existing transcontextual work, we examined the motivational pathways through which students' relational efficacy and self-efficacy beliefs in PE were predictive of their leisure-time physical activity. Singaporean students (N = 990; age M = 13.95, SD = 1.02) completed instruments assessing efficacy beliefs, perceptions of teacher relatedness support, and autonomous motivation toward PE, and 2 weeks later they reported their motivation toward, and engagement in, leisure-time physical activity. Structural equation modeling revealed that students reported stronger other-efficacy and RISE beliefs when they felt that their teacher created a highly relatedness-supportive environment. In turn, their relational efficacy beliefs (a) supported their confidence in their own ability, (b) directly and indirectly predicted more autonomous motives for participation in PE, and (c) displayed prospective transcontextual effects in relation to leisure-time variables. By emphasizing the adaptive motivational effects associated with the tripartite constructs, these findings highlight novel pathways linking students' efficacy perceptions with leisure-time outcomes.

Motor outcome at the age of one after perinatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy.

PubMed

van Schie, P E M; Becher, J G; Dallmeijer, A J; Barkhof, F; Weissenbruch, M M; Vermeulen, R J

2007-04-01

The aim of this report is to describe the motor outcome in one year-old children who were born at full-term with perinatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). Relationships between motor ability tests and neurological examination at one year, and between these tests and neonatal brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were investigated. 32 surviving children, born full-term with perinatal HIE, are included in this report. All children had a neonatal MRI. At one year, motor ability was assessed with the Alberta Infant Motor Scale and the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (2nd version). Neurological examinations included the neurological optimality score (NOS). At one year, 14 children (44%) had normal motor ability, nine (28%) had mildly delayed, and nine had significantly delayed motor ability. The NOS ranged from 14.6-27 points. All children with normal motor ability had (near) optimal NOS, however, not all children with high NOS had normal motor ability. Eleven children (34%) had normal neonatal MRI; at one year, six of them had normal, and five had mildly delayed motor ability. Eight children with normal motor ability showed abnormalities on neonatal MRI. Neonatal brain MRI does not predict motor outcome at one year. Motor ability tests and neurological examinations should be used in a complementary manner to describe outcome after HIE.

Developmental pathways of multisite musculoskeletal pain: what is the influence of physical and psychosocial working conditions?

PubMed

Neupane, Subas; Leino-Arjas, Päivi; Nygård, Clas-Håkan; Oakman, Jodi; Virtanen, Pekka

2017-07-01

To investigate the developmental pathways of multisite musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and the effect of physical and psychosocial working conditions on the development of MSP trajectories. The study was conducted among food industry workers (N=868) using a longitudinal design. Surveys were conducted every 2 years from 2003 to 2009. The questionnaire covered MSP, physical and psychosocial working conditions (physical strain, environmental factors, repetitive movements, awkward postures; mental strain, team support, leadership, possibility to influence) and work ability. MSP as an outcome was defined as the number of painful areas of the body on a scale of 0-4. Latent class growth modelling and multinomial logistic regression were used to analyse the impact of working conditions on MSP pathways. Five MSP trajectories (no MSP 35.6%, persistent MSP 28.8%, developing MSP 8.8%, increasing MSP 15.3% and decreasing MSP 11.5%) were identified. In a multivariable model, the no MSP pathway was set as the reference group. High physical strain (OR 3.26, 95% CI 2.10 to 5.04), poor environmental factors (3.84, 2.48 to 5.94), high repetitive movements (3.68, 2.31 to 5.88) and high mental strain (3.87, 2.53 to 5.92) at baseline predicted the persistent MSP pathway, allowing for poor work ability (2.81, 1.84 to 4.28) and female gender (1.80, 1.14 to 2.83). High physical strain and female gender predicted the developing MSP pathway. High physical strain, poor environmental factors and high repetitive movements predicted the increasing and decreasing MSP pathways. A substantial proportion of individuals reported having persistent MSP, and one-third reported changing patterns of pain. Adverse physical working conditions and mental strain were strongly associated with having high but stable levels of MSP. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Writing abilities longitudinally predict academic outcomes of adolescents with ADHD.

PubMed

Molitor, Stephen J; Langberg, Joshua M; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Evans, Steven W

2016-09-01

Students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often experience a host of negative academic outcomes, and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression, but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear whether written expression abilities uniquely contribute to the academic functioning of students with ADHD. The current study included a sample of 104 middle school students diagnosed with ADHD (Grades 6-8). Participants were followed longitudinally to evaluate whether written expression abilities at baseline predicted student grade point average (GPA) and parent ratings of academic impairment 18 months later, after controlling for reading ability and additional relevant covariates. Written expression abilities longitudinally predicted both academic outcomes above and beyond ADHD and oppositional defiant disorder symptoms, medication use, reading ability, and baseline values of GPA and parent-rated academic impairment. Follow-up analyses revealed that no single aspect of written expression was demonstrably more impactful on academic outcomes than the others, suggesting that writing as an entire process should be the focus of intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey S.; Bienert, Nancy; Gomez, Ashley; Hunt, Sarah; Kraut, Joshua; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Green, Steven M.; Prevot, Thomas; Wu, Minghong G.

2013-01-01

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

Estimating the Reliability of Electronic Parts in High Radiation Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everline, Chester; Clark, Karla; Man, Guy; Rasmussen, Robert; Johnston, Allan; Kohlhase, Charles; Paulos, Todd

2008-01-01

Radiation effects on materials and electronic parts constrain the lifetime of flight systems visiting Europa. Understanding mission lifetime limits is critical to the design and planning of such a mission. Therefore, the operational aspects of radiation dose are a mission success issue. To predict and manage mission lifetime in a high radiation environment, system engineers need capable tools to trade radiation design choices against system design and reliability, and science achievements. Conventional tools and approaches provided past missions with conservative designs without the ability to predict their lifetime beyond the baseline mission.This paper describes a more systematic approach to understanding spacecraft design margin, allowing better prediction of spacecraft lifetime. This is possible because of newly available electronic parts radiation effects statistics and an enhanced spacecraft system reliability methodology. This new approach can be used in conjunction with traditional approaches for mission design. This paper describes the fundamentals of the new methodology.

Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

PubMed

Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

2012-06-01

The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

Ability of the D-15 panel tests and HRR pseudoisochromatic plates to predict performance in naming VDT colors.

PubMed

Ramaswamy, Shankaran; Hovis, Jeffery K

2004-01-01

Color codes in VDT displays often contain sets of colors that are confusing to individuals with color-vision deficiencies. The purpose of this study is to determine whether individuals with color-vision deficiencies (color defectives) can perform as well as individuals without color-vision deficiencies (color normals) on a colored VDT display used in the railway industry and to determine whether clinical color-vision tests can predict their performance. Of the 52 color defectives, 58% failed the VDT test. The kappa coefficients of agreement for the Farnsworth D-15, Adams desaturated D-15, and Richmond 3rd Edition HRR PIC diagnostic plates were significantly greater than chance. In particular, the D-15 tests have a high probability of predicting who fails the practical test. However, all three tests had an unacceptably high false-negative rate (9.5-35%); so that a practical test is still needed.

Future Climate Change Will Favour Non-Specialist Mammals in the (Sub)Arctics

PubMed Central

Hof, Anouschka R.; Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer

2012-01-01

Arctic and subarctic (i.e., [sub]arctic) ecosystems are predicted to be particularly susceptible to climate change. The area of tundra is expected to decrease and temperate climates will extend further north, affecting species inhabiting northern environments. Consequently, species at high latitudes should be especially susceptible to climate change, likely experiencing significant range contractions. Contrary to these expectations, our modelling of species distributions suggests that predicted climate change up to 2080 will favour most mammals presently inhabiting (sub)arctic Europe. Assuming full dispersal ability, most species will benefit from climate change, except for a few cold-climate specialists. However, most resident species will contract their ranges if they are not able to track their climatic niches, but no species is predicted to go extinct. If climate would change far beyond current predictions, however, species might disappear. The reason for the relative stability of mammalian presence might be that arctic regions have experienced large climatic shifts in the past, filtering out sensitive and range-restricted taxa. We also provide evidence that for most (sub)arctic mammals it is not climate change per se that will threaten them, but possible constraints on their dispersal ability and changes in community composition. Such impacts of future changes in species communities should receive more attention in literature. PMID:23285098

An Examination of the Ability of High School Wealth and Academic Preparation to Predict First Year Retention of African American and White Students Enrolled in the North Carolina Community College System Associate Degree of Nursing Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Bess Llewellyn

2016-01-01

The framework for this study used Tinto's (1975) theoretical framework for student persistence and incorporated the examination of high school wealth, the absence of poverty, as measured by the percentage of students receiving Federal Free and Reduced Lunch, along with North Carolina Department of Public School performance measures, academic…

Predictability of Road Traffic and Congestion in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Wang, Jingyuan; Mao, Yu; Li, Jing; Xiong, Zhang; Wang, Wen-Xu

2015-01-01

Mitigating traffic congestion on urban roads, with paramount importance in urban development and reduction of energy consumption and air pollution, depends on our ability to foresee road usage and traffic conditions pertaining to the collective behavior of drivers, raising a significant question: to what degree is road traffic predictable in urban areas? Here we rely on the precise records of daily vehicle mobility based on GPS positioning device installed in taxis to uncover the potential daily predictability of urban traffic patterns. Using the mapping from the degree of congestion on roads into a time series of symbols and measuring its entropy, we find a relatively high daily predictability of traffic conditions despite the absence of any priori knowledge of drivers' origins and destinations and quite different travel patterns between weekdays and weekends. Moreover, we find a counterintuitive dependence of the predictability on travel speed: the road segment associated with intermediate average travel speed is most difficult to be predicted. We also explore the possibility of recovering the traffic condition of an inaccessible segment from its adjacent segments with respect to limited observability. The highly predictable traffic patterns in spite of the heterogeneity of drivers' behaviors and the variability of their origins and destinations enables development of accurate predictive models for eventually devising practical strategies to mitigate urban road congestion. PMID:25849534

Do different types of school mathematics development depend on different constellations of numerical versus general cognitive abilities?

PubMed

Fuchs, Lynn S; Geary, David C; Compton, Donald L; Fuchs, Douglas; Hamlett, Carol L; Seethaler, Pamela M; Bryant, Joan D; Schatschneider, Christopher

2010-11-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the interplay between basic numerical cognition and domain-general abilities (such as working memory) in explaining school mathematics learning. First graders (N = 280; mean age = 5.77 years) were assessed on 2 types of basic numerical cognition, 8 domain-general abilities, procedural calculations, and word problems in fall and then reassessed on procedural calculations and word problems in spring. Development was indexed by latent change scores, and the interplay between numerical and domain-general abilities was analyzed by multiple regression. Results suggest that the development of different types of formal school mathematics depends on different constellations of numerical versus general cognitive abilities. When controlling for 8 domain-general abilities, both aspects of basic numerical cognition were uniquely predictive of procedural calculations and word problems development. Yet, for procedural calculations development, the additional amount of variance explained by the set of domain-general abilities was not significant, and only counting span was uniquely predictive. By contrast, for word problems development, the set of domain-general abilities did provide additional explanatory value, accounting for about the same amount of variance as the basic numerical cognition variables. Language, attentive behavior, nonverbal problem solving, and listening span were uniquely predictive.

Do Different Types of School Mathematics Development Depend on Different Constellations of Numerical versus General Cognitive Abilities?

PubMed Central

Fuchs, Lynn S.; Geary, David C.; Compton, Donald L.; Fuchs, Douglas; Hamlett, Carol L.; Seethaler, Pamela M.; Bryant, Joan D.; Schatschneider, Christopher

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the interplay between basic numerical cognition and domain-general abilities (such as working memory) in explaining school mathematics learning. First graders (n=280; 5.77 years) were assessed on 2 types of basic numerical cognition, 8 domain-general abilities, procedural calculations (PCs), and word problems (WPs) in fall and then reassessed on PCs and WPs in spring. Development was indexed via latent change scores, and the interplay between numerical and domain-general abilities was analyzed via multiple regression. Results suggest that the development of different types of formal school mathematics depends on different constellations of numerical versus general cognitive abilities. When controlling for 8 domain-general abilities, both aspects of basic numerical cognition were uniquely predictive of PC and WP development. Yet, for PC development, the additional amount of variance explained by the set of domain-general abilities was not significant, and only counting span was uniquely predictive. By contrast, for WP development, the set of domain- general abilities did provide additional explanatory value, accounting for about the same amount of variance as the basic numerical cognition variables. Language, attentive behavior, nonverbal problem solving, and listening span were uniquely predictive. PMID:20822213

Quantitative studies on structure-ORAC relationships of anthocyanins from eggplant and radish using 3D-QSAR.

PubMed

Jing, Pu; Zhao, Shujuan; Ruan, Siyu; Sui, Zhongquan; Chen, Lihong; Jiang, Linlei; Qian, Bingjun

2014-02-15

The 3-dimensional quantitative structure activity relationship (3D-QSAR) models were established from 21 anthocyanins based on their oxygen radical absorbing capacity (ORAC) and were applied to predict anthocyanins in eggplant and radish for their ORAC values. The cross-validated q(2)=0.857/0.729, non-cross-validated r(2) = 0.958/0.856, standard error of estimate = 0.153/0.134, and F = 73.267/19.247 were for the best QSAR (CoMFA/CoMSIA) models, where the correlation coefficient r(2)pred = 0.998/0.997 (>0.6) indicated a high predictive ability for each. Additionally, the contour map results suggested that structural characteristics of anthocyanins favourable for the high ORAC. Four anthocyanins from eggplant and radish have been screened based on the QSAR models. Pelargonidin-3-[(6''-p-coumaroyl)-glucosyl(2 → 1)glucoside]-5-(6''-malonyl)-glucoside, delphinidin-3-rutinoside-5-glucoside, and delphinidin-3-[(4''-p-coumaroyl)-rhamnosyl(1 → 6)glucoside]-5-glucoside potential with high ORAC based the QSAR models were isolated and also confirmed for their relative high antioxidant ability, which might attribute to the bulky and/or electron-donating substituent at the 3-position in the C ring or/and hydrogen bond donor group/electron donating group on the R1 position in the B ring. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heterodimer Binding Scaffolds Recognition via the Analysis of Kinetically Hot Residues

PubMed Central

Perišić, Ognjen

2018-01-01

Physical interactions between proteins are often difficult to decipher. The aim of this paper is to present an algorithm that is designed to recognize binding patches and supporting structural scaffolds of interacting heterodimer proteins using the Gaussian Network Model (GNM). The recognition is based on the (self) adjustable identification of kinetically hot residues and their connection to possible binding scaffolds. The kinetically hot residues are residues with the lowest entropy, i.e., the highest contribution to the weighted sum of the fastest modes per chain extracted via GNM. The algorithm adjusts the number of fast modes in the GNM’s weighted sum calculation using the ratio of predicted and expected numbers of target residues (contact and the neighboring first-layer residues). This approach produces very good results when applied to dimers with high protein sequence length ratios. The protocol’s ability to recognize near native decoys was compared to the ability of the residue-level statistical potential of Lu and Skolnick using the Sternberg and Vakser decoy dimers sets. The statistical potential produced better overall results, but in a number of cases its predicting ability was comparable, or even inferior, to the prediction ability of the adjustable GNM approach. The results presented in this paper suggest that in heterodimers at least one protein has interacting scaffold determined by the immovable, kinetically hot residues. In many cases, interacting proteins (especially if being of noticeably different sizes) either behave as a rigid lock and key or, presumably, exhibit the opposite dynamic behavior. While the binding surface of one protein is rigid and stable, its partner’s interacting scaffold is more flexible and adaptable. PMID:29547506

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Math anxiety, self-efficacy, and ability in British undergraduate nursing students.

PubMed

McMullan, Miriam; Jones, Ray; Lea, Susan

2012-04-01

Nurses need to be able to make drug calculations competently. In this study, involving 229 second year British nursing students, we explored the influence of mathematics anxiety, self-efficacy, and numerical ability on drug calculation ability and determined which factors would best predict this skill. Strong significant relationships (p < .001) existed between anxiety, self-efficacy, and ability. Students who failed the numerical and/or drug calculation ability tests were more anxious (p < .001) and less confident (p ≤ .002) in performing calculations than those who passed. Numerical ability made the strongest unique contribution in predicting drug calculation ability (beta = 0.50, p < .001) followed by drug calculation self-efficacy (beta = 0.16, p = .04). Early testing is recommended for basic numerical skills. Faculty are advised to refresh students' numerical skills before introducing drug calculations. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Use of the Short Physical Performance Battery Score to predict loss of ability to walk 400 meters: analysis from the InCHIANTI study.

PubMed

Vasunilashorn, Sarinnapha; Coppin, Antonia K; Patel, Kushang V; Lauretani, Fulvio; Ferrucci, Luigi; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack M

2009-02-01

Early detection of mobility limitations remains an important goal for preventing mobility disability. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and the loss of ability to walk 400 m, an objectively assessed mobility outcome increasingly used in clinical trials. The study sample consisted of 542 adults from the InCHIANTI study aged 65 and older, who completed the 400 m walk at baseline and had evaluations on the SPPB and 400 m walk at baseline and 3-year follow-up. Multiple logistic regression models were used to determine whether SPPB scores predict the loss of ability to walk 400 m at follow-up among persons able to walk 400 m at baseline. The 3-year incidence of failing the 400 m walk was 15.5%. After adjusting for age, sex, education, body mass index, Mini-Mental State Examination, number of medical conditions, and 400 m walk gait speed at baseline, SPPB score was significantly associated with loss of ability to walk 400 m after 3 years. Participants with SPPB scores of 10 or lower at baseline had significantly higher odds of mobility disability at follow-up (odds ratio [OR] = 3.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.32-8.65) compared with those who scored 12, with a graded response across the range of SPPB scores (OR = 26.93, 95% CI: 7.51-96.50; OR = 7.67, 95% CI: 2.26-26.04; OR = 8.28, 95% CI: 3.32-20.67 for SPPB < or = 7, SPPB 8, and SPPB 9, respectively). The SPPB strongly predicts loss of ability to walk 400 m. Thus, using the SPPB to identify older persons at high risk of lower body functional limitations seems a valid means of recognizing individuals who would benefit most from preventive interventions.

Use of the Short Physical Performance Battery Score to Predict Loss of Ability to Walk 400 Meters: Analysis From the InCHIANTI Study

PubMed Central

Coppin, Antonia K.; Patel, Kushang V.; Lauretani, Fulvio; Ferrucci, Luigi; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack M.

2009-01-01

Background Early detection of mobility limitations remains an important goal for preventing mobility disability. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and the loss of ability to walk 400 m, an objectively assessed mobility outcome increasingly used in clinical trials. Methods The study sample consisted of 542 adults from the InCHIANTI study aged 65 and older, who completed the 400 m walk at baseline and had evaluations on the SPPB and 400 m walk at baseline and 3-year follow-up. Multiple logistic regression models were used to determine whether SPPB scores predict the loss of ability to walk 400 m at follow-up among persons able to walk 400 m at baseline. Results The 3-year incidence of failing the 400 m walk was 15.5%. After adjusting for age, sex, education, body mass index, Mini-Mental State Examination, number of medical conditions, and 400 m walk gait speed at baseline, SPPB score was significantly associated with loss of ability to walk 400 m after 3 years. Participants with SPPB scores of 10 or lower at baseline had significantly higher odds of mobility disability at follow-up (odds ratio [OR] = 3.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.32–8.65) compared with those who scored 12, with a graded response across the range of SPPB scores (OR = 26.93, 95% CI: 7.51–96.50; OR = 7.67, 95% CI: 2.26–26.04; OR = 8.28, 95% CI: 3.32–20.67 for SPPB ≤ 7, SPPB 8, and SPPB 9, respectively). Conclusions The SPPB strongly predicts loss of ability to walk 400 m. Thus, using the SPPB to identify older persons at high risk of lower body functional limitations seems a valid means of recognizing individuals who would benefit most from preventive interventions. PMID:19182232

PLAM - a meteorological pollution index for air quality and its applications in fog-haze forecasts in north China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Wang, J.; Gong, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.; Wang, Y.; Wang, J.; Li, D.; Guo, J.

2015-03-01

Using surface meteorological observation and high resolution emission data, this paper discusses the application of PLAM/h Index (Parameter Linking Air-quality to Meteorological conditions/haze) in the prediction of large-scale low visibility and fog-haze events. Based on the two-dimensional probability density function diagnosis model for emissions, the study extends the diagnosis and prediction of the meteorological pollution index PLAM to the regional visibility fog-haze intensity. The results show that combining the influence of regular meteorological conditions and emission factors together in the PLAM/h parameterization scheme is very effective in improving the diagnostic identification ability of the fog-haze weather in North China. The correlation coefficients for four seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter) between PLAM/h and visibility observation are 0.76, 0.80, 0.96 and 0.86 respectively and all their significance levels exceed 0.001, showing the ability of PLAM/h to predict the seasonal changes and differences of fog-haze weather in the North China region. The high-value correlation zones are respectively located in Jing-Jin-Ji (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei), Bohai Bay rim and the southern Hebei-northern Henan, indicating that the PLAM/h index has relations with the distribution of frequent heavy fog-haze weather in North China and the distribution of emission high-value zone. Comparatively analyzing the heavy fog-haze events and large-scale fine weather processes in winter and summer, it is found that PLAM/h index 24 h forecast is highly correlated to the visibility observation. Therefore, PLAM/h index has better capability of doing identification, analysis and forecasting.

PLAM - a meteorological pollution index for air quality and its applications in fog-haze forecasts in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y. Q.; Wang, J. Z.; Gong, S. L.; Zhang, X. Y.; Wang, H.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, J.; Li, D.; Guo, J. P.

2016-02-01

Using surface meteorological observation and high-resolution emission data, this paper discusses the application of the PLAM/h index (Parameter Linking Air-quality to Meteorological conditions/haze) in the prediction of large-scale low visibility and fog-haze events. Based on the two-dimensional probability density function diagnosis model for emissions, the study extends the diagnosis and prediction of the meteorological pollution index PLAM to the regional visibility fog-haze intensity. The results show that combining the influence of regular meteorological conditions and emission factors together in the PLAM/h parameterization scheme is very effective in improving the diagnostic identification ability of the fog-haze weather in North China. The determination coefficients for four seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) between PLAM/h and visibility observation are 0.76, 0.80, 0.96, and 0.86, respectively, and all of their significance levels exceed 0.001, showing the ability of PLAM/h to predict the seasonal changes and differences of fog-haze weather in the North China region. The high-value correlation zones are located in Jing-Jin-Ji (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei), Bohai Bay rim, and southern Hebei-northern Henan, indicating that the PLAM/h index is related to the distribution of frequent heavy fog-haze weather in North China and the distribution of emission high-value zone. Through comparative analysis of the heavy fog-haze events and large-scale clear-weather processes in winter and summer, it is found that PLAM/h index 24 h forecast is highly correlated with the visibility observation. Therefore, the PLAM/h index has good capability in identification, analysis, and forecasting.

Is 1H NMR metabolomics becoming the promising early biomarker for neonatal sepsis and for monitoring the antibiotic toxicity?

PubMed

Noto, Antonio; Mussap, Michele; Fanos, Vassilios

2014-06-01

Metabolomics, the latest of omics disciplines, has been successfully used in various fields of basic research such as pharmacology and toxicology. Recently, this new science has gained an important role in the translational research of diagnostics. In this regard, the challenge for neonatologists and medical laboratories is to diagnose neonatal sepsis, a disease with high mortality and morbidity due to the difficulty in diagnosing it. Metabolomics, through its ability to identify perturbations caused by this condition, aims at recognizing metabolites that characterize neonatal sepsis with high specificity and sensitivity. The purpose of this review is to highlight the ability of metabolomics to find early biomarkers for this condition, as well as to predict the toxic effects caused by antibiotics.

The association of children's mathematic abilities with both adults' cognitive abilities and intrinsic fronto-parietal networks is altered in preterm-born individuals.

PubMed

Bäuml, J G; Meng, C; Daamen, M; Baumann, N; Busch, B; Bartmann, P; Wolke, D; Boecker, H; Wohlschläger, A; Sorg, C; Jaekel, Julia

2017-03-01

Mathematic abilities in childhood are highly predictive for long-term neurocognitive outcomes. Preterm-born individuals have an increased risk for both persistent cognitive impairments and long-term changes in macroscopic brain organization. We hypothesized that the association of childhood mathematic abilities with both adulthood general cognitive abilities and associated fronto-parietal intrinsic networks is altered after preterm delivery. 72 preterm- and 71 term-born individuals underwent standardized mathematic and IQ testing at 8 years and resting-state fMRI and full-scale IQ testing at 26 years of age. Outcome measure for intrinsic networks was intrinsic functional connectivity (iFC). Controlling for IQ at age eight, mathematic abilities in childhood were significantly stronger positively associated with adults' IQ in preterm compared with term-born individuals. In preterm-born individuals, the association of children's mathematic abilities and adults' fronto-parietal iFC was altered. Likewise, fronto-parietal iFC was distinctively linked with preterm- and term-born adults' IQ. Results provide evidence that preterm birth alters the link of mathematic abilities in childhood and general cognitive abilities and fronto-parietal intrinsic networks in adulthood. Data suggest a distinct functional role of intrinsic fronto-parietal networks for preterm individuals with respect to mathematic abilities and that these networks together with associated children's mathematic abilities may represent potential neurocognitive targets for early intervention.

The proposed 'concordance-statistic for benefit' provided a useful metric when modeling heterogeneous treatment effects.

PubMed

van Klaveren, David; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Serruys, Patrick W; Kent, David M

2018-02-01

Clinical prediction models that support treatment decisions are usually evaluated for their ability to predict the risk of an outcome rather than treatment benefit-the difference between outcome risk with vs. without therapy. We aimed to define performance metrics for a model's ability to predict treatment benefit. We analyzed data of the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial and of three recombinant tissue plasminogen activator trials. We assessed alternative prediction models with a conventional risk concordance-statistic (c-statistic) and a novel c-statistic for benefit. We defined observed treatment benefit by the outcomes in pairs of patients matched on predicted benefit but discordant for treatment assignment. The 'c-for-benefit' represents the probability that from two randomly chosen matched patient pairs with unequal observed benefit, the pair with greater observed benefit also has a higher predicted benefit. Compared to a model without treatment interactions, the SYNTAX score II had improved ability to discriminate treatment benefit (c-for-benefit 0.590 vs. 0.552), despite having similar risk discrimination (c-statistic 0.725 vs. 0.719). However, for the simplified stroke-thrombolytic predictive instrument (TPI) vs. the original stroke-TPI, the c-for-benefit (0.584 vs. 0.578) was similar. The proposed methodology has the potential to measure a model's ability to predict treatment benefit not captured with conventional performance metrics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salzmann, Ulrich; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Voss, Jochen; Hill, Daniel J.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Bragg, Frances J.; Chandler, Mark A.;

Improvement of Predictive Ability by Uniform Coverage of the Target Genetic Space

PubMed Central

Bustos-Korts, Daniela; Malosetti, Marcos; Chapman, Scott; Biddulph, Ben; van Eeuwijk, Fred

2016-01-01

Genome-enabled prediction provides breeders with the means to increase the number of genotypes that can be evaluated for selection. One of the major challenges in genome-enabled prediction is how to construct a training set of genotypes from a calibration set that represents the target population of genotypes, where the calibration set is composed of a training and validation set. A random sampling protocol of genotypes from the calibration set will lead to low quality coverage of the total genetic space by the training set when the calibration set contains population structure. As a consequence, predictive ability will be affected negatively, because some parts of the genotypic diversity in the target population will be under-represented in the training set, whereas other parts will be over-represented. Therefore, we propose a training set construction method that uniformly samples the genetic space spanned by the target population of genotypes, thereby increasing predictive ability. To evaluate our method, we constructed training sets alongside with the identification of corresponding genomic prediction models for four genotype panels that differed in the amount of population structure they contained (maize Flint, maize Dent, wheat, and rice). Training sets were constructed using uniform sampling, stratified-uniform sampling, stratified sampling and random sampling. We compared these methods with a method that maximizes the generalized coefficient of determination (CD). Several training set sizes were considered. We investigated four genomic prediction models: multi-locus QTL models, GBLUP models, combinations of QTL and GBLUPs, and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) models. For the maize and wheat panels, construction of the training set under uniform sampling led to a larger predictive ability than under stratified and random sampling. The results of our methods were similar to those of the CD method. For the rice panel, all training set construction methods led to similar predictive ability, a reflection of the very strong population structure in this panel. PMID:27672112

Process skills acquisition, cognitive growth, and attitude change of ninth grade students in a scientific literacy course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Dale R.; Piburn, Michael

This is a report of the effects of a scientific literacy course on the skills, cognitive ability, and attitude of students in the first year of high school. Specifically, the research examines (1) whether it is possible to teach scientific skills, (2) whether a literacy curriculum affects attitude and cognitive ability, and (3) whether incoming student characteristics affect the development of attitude and cognitive abilities. Two hundred and fifty (126 male and 124 female) ninth grade students were enrolled in a specially designed literacy course which met for 3 hours and 20 minutes each week for 39 weeks. Students were pretested for logical, spatial, verbal, and mathematical ability, as well as for attitude toward self and science, and psychological type. The course was successful in teaching skills. In addition, there were significant increases in spatial, verbal, and quantitative ability. Increases in cognitive ability were predicted by logical ability, measurement skills, and academic self-concept. Attitudes declined as a result of participation in the course. Self concept and mastery were related to cognitive variables and motivation, mastery, and control were related to psychological type.

Prediction of general mental ability based on neural oscillation measures of sleep.

PubMed

Bódizs, Róbert; Kis, Tamás; Lázár, Alpár Sándor; Havrán, Linda; Rigó, Péter; Clemens, Zsófia; Halász, Péter

2005-09-01

The usual assessment of general mental ability (or intelligence) is based on performance attained in reasoning and problem-solving tasks. Differences in general mental ability have been associated with event-related neural activity patterns of the wakeful working brain or physical, chemical and electrical brain features measured during wakeful resting conditions. Recent evidences suggest that specific sleep electroencephalogram oscillations are related to wakeful cognitive performances. Our aim is to reveal the relationship between non-rapid eye movement sleep-specific oscillations (the slow oscillation, delta activity, slow and fast sleep spindle density, the grouping of slow and fast sleep spindles) and general mental ability assessed by the Raven Progressive Matrices Test (RPMT). The grouping of fast sleep spindles by the cortical slow oscillation in the left frontopolar derivation (Fp1) as well as the density of fast sleep spindles over the right frontal area (Fp2, F4), correlated positively with general mental ability. Data from those selected electrodes that showed the high correlations with general mental ability explained almost 70% of interindividual variance in RPMT scores. Results suggest that individual differences in general mental ability are reflected in fast sleep spindle-related oscillatory activity measured over the frontal cortex.

Taking your own path: Individual differences in executive function and language processing skills in child learners.

PubMed

Woodard, Kristina; Pozzan, Lucia; Trueswell, John C

2016-01-01

Children as old as 5 or 6 years display selective difficulties in revising initial interpretive commitments, as indicated by both online and offline measures of sentence comprehension. It is likely, however, that individual children differ in how well they can recover from misinterpretations and in the age at which they become adult-like in these abilities. To better understand the cognitive functions that support sentence processing and revision, the current work investigated how individual differences in children's ability to interpret temporarily ambiguous sentences relate to individual differences in other linguistic and domain-general cognitive abilities. Children were tested over 2 days on a battery of executive function, working memory, and language comprehension tasks. Performance on these tasks was then used to predict online and offline measures of children's ability to revise initial misinterpretations of temporarily ambiguous sentences. We found two measures of children's cognitive flexibility to be related to their ambiguity resolution abilities. These results provide converging evidence for the hypothesis that the ability to revise initial interpretive commitments is supported by domain-general executive function abilities, which are highly variable and not fully developed in children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning a novel phonological contrast depends on interactions between individual differences and training paradigm design

PubMed Central

Perrachione, Tyler K.; Lee, Jiyeon; Ha, Louisa Y. Y.; Wong, Patrick C. M.

2011-01-01

Studies evaluating phonological contrast learning typically investigate either the predictiveness of specific pretraining aptitude measures or the efficacy of different instructional paradigms. However, little research considers how these factors interact—whether different students learn better from different types of instruction—and what the psychological basis for any interaction might be. The present study demonstrates that successfully learning a foreign-language phonological contrast for pitch depends on an interaction between individual differences in perceptual abilities and the design of the training paradigm. Training from stimuli with high acoustic-phonetic variability is generally thought to improve learning; however, we found high-variability training enhanced learning only for individuals with strong perceptual abilities. Learners with weaker perceptual abilities were actually impaired by high-variability training relative to a low-variability condition. A second experiment assessing variations on the high-variability training design determined that the property of this learning environment most detrimental to perceptually weak learners is the amount of trial-by-trial variability. Learners’ perceptual limitations can thus override the benefits of high-variability training where trial-by-trial variability in other irrelevant acoustic-phonetic features obfuscates access to the target feature. These results demonstrate the importance of considering individual differences in pretraining aptitudes when evaluating the efficacy of any speech training paradigm. PMID:21786912

Growth trajectories and intellectual abilities in young adulthood: The Helsinki Birth Cohort study.

PubMed

Räikkönen, Katri; Forsén, Tom; Henriksson, Markus; Kajantie, Eero; Heinonen, Kati; Pesonen, Anu-Katriina; Leskinen, Jukka T; Laaksonen, Ilmo; Osmond, Clive; Barker, David J P; Eriksson, Johan G

2009-08-15

Slow childhood growth is associated with poorer intellectual ability. The critical periods of growth remain uncertain. Among 2,786 Finnish male military conscripts (1952-1972) born in 1934-1944, the authors tested how specific growth periods from birth to age 20 years predicted verbal, visuospatial, and arithmetic abilities at age 20. Small head circumference at birth predicted poorer verbal, visuospatial, and arithmetic abilities. The latter 2 measures were also associated with lower weight and body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) at birth (for a 1-standard-deviation (SD) decrease in test score per SD decrease in body size > or = 0.05, P's < 0.04). Slow linear growth and weight gain between birth and age 6 months, between ages 6 months and 2 years, or both predicted poorer performance on all 3 tests (for a 1-SD decrease in test score per SD decrease in growth > or = 0.05, P's < 0.03). Reduced linear growth between ages 2 and 7 years predicted worse verbal ability, and between age 11 years and conscription it predicted worse performance on all 3 tests. Prenatal brain growth and linear growth up to 2 years after birth form a first critical period for intellectual development. There is a second critical period, specific for verbal development, between ages 2 and 7 years and a third critical period for all 3 tested outcomes during adolescence.

Implicit beliefs of ability, approach-avoidance goals and cognitive anxiety among team sport athletes.

PubMed

Stenling, Andreas; Hassmén, Peter; Holmström, Stefan

2014-01-01

People's implicit beliefs of ability have been suggested as an antecedent of achievement goal adoption, which has in turn been associated with behavioural, cognitive and affective outcomes. This study examined a conditional process model with team sport athletes' approach-avoidance achievement goals as mediators between their implicit beliefs of sport ability and sport-related cognitive anxiety. We expected gender to moderate the paths from implicit beliefs of ability to approach-avoidance goals and from approach-avoidance goals to cognitive anxiety. Team sport athletes with a mean age of 20 years (163 females and 152 males) responded to questionnaires about their implicit beliefs of sport ability, approach-avoidance goals and sport-related cognitive anxiety. Incremental beliefs, gender and the interaction between them predicted mastery-approach goals. Gender also predicted mastery-avoidance goals, with females reporting higher levels than males. Mastery-avoidance goals, gender and the interaction between them predicted cognitive anxiety, with females reporting higher levels of anxiety than males. Entity beliefs positively predicted performance-avoidance goals and the interaction between performance-approach and gender predicted anxiety. The indirect effects also showed gender differences in relation to performance-approach goals. Taken together, our results suggest that coaches trying to create a facilitating climate for their male and female athletes may be wise to consider their athletes' anxiety and achievement goal patterns as these may affect both the athletes' well-being and performance.

Executive Function Buffers the Association between Early Math and Later Academic Skills.

PubMed

Ribner, Andrew D; Willoughby, Michael T; Blair, Clancy B

2017-01-01

Extensive evidence has suggested that early academic skills are a robust indicator of later academic achievement; however, there is mixed evidence of the effectiveness of intervention on academic skills in early years to improve later outcomes. As such, it is clear there are other contributing factors to the development of academic skills. The present study tests the role of executive function (EF) (a construct made up of skills complicit in the achievement of goal-directed tasks) in predicting 5th grade math and reading ability above and beyond math and reading ability prior to school entry, and net of other cognitive covariates including processing speed, vocabulary, and IQ. Using a longitudinal dataset of N = 1292 participants representative of rural areas in two distinctive geographical parts of the United States, the present investigation finds EF at age 5 strongly predicts 5th grade academic skills, as do cognitive covariates. Additionally, investigation of an interaction between early math ability and EF reveals the magnitude of the association between early math and later math varies as a function of early EF, such that participants who have high levels of EF can "catch up" to peers who perform better on assessments of early math ability. These results suggest EF is pivotal to the development of academic skills throughout elementary school. Implications for further research and practice are discussed.

Modeling and Prediction of Fan Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Ed

2008-01-01

Fan noise is a significant contributor to the total noise signature of a modern high bypass ratio aircraft engine and with the advent of ultra high bypass ratio engines like the geared turbofan, it is likely to remain so in the future. As such, accurate modeling and prediction of the basic characteristics of fan noise are necessary ingredients in designing quieter aircraft engines in order to ensure compliance with ever more stringent aviation noise regulations. In this paper, results from a comprehensive study aimed at establishing the utility of current tools for modeling and predicting fan noise will be summarized. It should be emphasized that these tools exemplify present state of the practice and embody what is currently used at NASA and Industry for predicting fan noise. The ability of these tools to model and predict fan noise is assessed against a set of benchmark fan noise databases obtained for a range of representative fan cycles and operating conditions. Detailed comparisons between the predicted and measured narrowband spectral and directivity characteristics of fan nose will be presented in the full paper. General conclusions regarding the utility of current tools and recommendations for future improvements will also be given.

Performance of comorbidity, risk adjustment, and functional status measures in expenditure prediction for patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D

2009-01-01

To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R(2) statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. Administrative data-based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed.

Assessment of Primary Site Response in Children With High-Risk Neuroblastoma: An International Multicenter Study

PubMed Central

McHugh, Kieran; Naranjo, Arlene; Van Ryn, Collin; Kirby, Chaim; Brock, Penelope; Lyons, Karen A.; States, Lisa J.; Rojas, Yesenia; Miller, Alexandra; Volchenboum, Sam L.; Simon, Thorsten; Krug, Barbara; Sarnacki, Sabine; Valteau-Couanet, Dominique; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Kammer, Birgit; Granata, Claudio; Pio, Luca; Park, Julie R.; Nuchtern, Jed

2016-01-01

Purpose The International Neuroblastoma Response Criteria (INRC) require serial measurements of primary tumors in three dimensions, whereas the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) require measurement in one dimension. This study was conducted to identify the preferred method of primary tumor response assessment for use in revised INRC. Patients and Methods Patients younger than 20 years with high-risk neuroblastoma were eligible if they were diagnosed between 2000 and 2012 and if three primary tumor measurements (antero-posterior, width, cranio-caudal) were recorded at least twice before resection. Responses were defined as ≥ 30% reduction in longest dimension as per RECIST, ≥ 50% reduction in volume as per INRC, or ≥ 65% reduction in volume. Results Three-year event-free survival for all patients (N = 229) was 44% and overall survival was 58%. The sensitivity of both volume response measures (ability to detect responses in patients who survived) exceeded the sensitivity of the single dimension measure, but the specificity of all response measures (ability to identify lack of response in patients who later died) was low. In multivariable analyses, none of the response measures studied was predictive of outcome, and none was predictive of the extent of resection. Conclusion None of the methods of primary tumor response assessment was predictive of outcome. Measurement of three dimensions followed by calculation of resultant volume is more complex than measurement of a single dimension. Primary tumor response in children with high-risk neuroblastoma should therefore be evaluated in accordance with RECIST criteria, using the single longest dimension. PMID:26755515

Pillars of judgment: how memory abilities affect performance in rule-based and exemplar-based judgments.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Janina A; von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jörg

2014-12-01

Making accurate judgments is an essential skill in everyday life. Although how different memory abilities relate to categorization and judgment processes has been hotly debated, the question is far from resolved. We contribute to the solution by investigating how individual differences in memory abilities affect judgment performance in 2 tasks that induced rule-based or exemplar-based judgment strategies. In a study with 279 participants, we investigated how working memory and episodic memory affect judgment accuracy and strategy use. As predicted, participants switched strategies between tasks. Furthermore, structural equation modeling showed that the ability to solve rule-based tasks was predicted by working memory, whereas episodic memory predicted judgment accuracy in the exemplar-based task. Last, the probability of choosing an exemplar-based strategy was related to better episodic memory, but strategy selection was unrelated to working memory capacity. In sum, our results suggest that different memory abilities are essential for successfully adopting different judgment strategies. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

ADMET in silico modelling: towards prediction paradise?

PubMed

van de Waterbeemd, Han; Gifford, Eric

2003-03-01

Following studies in the late 1990s that indicated that poor pharmacokinetics and toxicity were important causes of costly late-stage failures in drug development, it has become widely appreciated that these areas should be considered as early as possible in the drug discovery process. However, in recent years, combinatorial chemistry and high-throughput screening have significantly increased the number of compounds for which early data on absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion (ADME) and toxicity (T) are needed, which has in turn driven the development of a variety of medium and high-throughput in vitro ADMET screens. Here, we describe how in silico approaches will further increase our ability to predict and model the most relevant pharmacokinetic, metabolic and toxicity endpoints, thereby accelerating the drug discovery process.

Are invasive plants more competitive than native conspecifics? Patterns vary with competitors.

PubMed

Zheng, Yulong; Feng, Yulong; Valiente-Banuet, Alfonso; Li, Yangping; Liao, Zhiyong; Zhang, Jiaolin; Chen, Yajun

2015-10-22

Invasive plants are sometimes considered to be more competitive than their native conspecifics, according to the prediction that the invader reallocates resources from defense to growth due to liberation of natural enemies ['Evolution of Increased Competitive Ability' (EICA) hypothesis]. However, the differences in competitive ability may depend on the identity of competitors. In order to test the effects of competitors, Ageratina adenophora plants from both native and invasive ranges competed directly, and competed with native residents from both invasive (China) and native (Mexico) ranges respectively. Invasive A. adenophora plants were more competitive than their conspecifics from native populations when competing with natives from China (interspecific competition), but not when competing with natives from Mexico. Invasive A. adenophora plants also showed higher competitive ability when grown in high-density monoculture communities of plants from the same population (intrapopulation competition). In contrast, invasive A. adenophora plants showed lower competitive ability when competing with plants from native populations (intraspecific competition). Our results indicated that in the invasive range A. adenophora has evolved to effectively cope with co-occurring natives and high density environments, contributing to invasion success. Here, we showed the significant effects of competitors, which should be considered carefully when testing the EICA hypothesis.

Does the ability to express different emotions predict different indices of physical health? A skill-based study of physical symptoms and heart rate variability.

PubMed

Tuck, Natalie L; Adams, Kathryn S; Consedine, Nathan S

2017-09-01

The outward expression of emotion has been frequently associated with better health outcomes, whereas suppressing emotion is thought to contribute to worse physical health. However, work has typically focused on trait expressive tendencies and the possibility that individual differences in the ability to express specific emotions may also be associated with health has not been widely tested. A cross-sectional study of community dwelling adults. One hundred and twenty-eight participants aged 18-88 years completed questionnaires assessing demographics and health status, before attending a testing session in which resting heart rate variability (HRV) was assessed. Participants then completed a performance-based test of expressive regulatory skill in which they were instructed to enhance and suppress their emotional expressions while they watched film clips validated to elicit amusement, sadness, and anger. Participants rated subjective emotional experience before and after each clip, and their degree of expressivity was scored using FACS-based Noldus FaceReader. Missing data resulted in a final sample size of 117. Linear regressions controlling for age, sex, diagnoses, and trait emotion revealed that greater ability to enhance sad expressions was associated with higher HRV while the ability to enhance expressions of joy was associated with lower symptom interference. In parallel models, the ability to flexibly regulate (both enhance and suppress) expressions of joy and sadness was also associated with lower symptom interference. Findings suggest that the ability to regulate expressions of both sadness and joy is associated with health indices even when controlling for trait affect and potential confounds. The present findings offer early evidence that individual differences in the ability to regulate the outward expression of emotion may be relevant to health and suggest that expressive regulatory skills offer a novel avenue for research and intervention. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject The tendency to outwardly express felt emotion generally predicts better health, whereas expressive suppression typically predicts worse health outcomes. Most work has been based on trait assessments; however, the ability to regulate the expression of felt emotion can be objectively assessed using performance-based tests. Prior work in mental health suggests that the ability to flexibly up- and downregulate the expression of emotion predicts better outcomes. What does this study add The first evidence that the ability to flexibly regulate expressions predicts indices of health. Skill in both expressing and suppressing facial expressions predicts better reported health. Skills with different emotions differentially predict symptom interference and cardiac vagal tone. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Predictive Technologies: Can Smart Tools Augment the Brain's Predictive Abilities?

PubMed Central

Pezzulo, Giovanni; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Gaggioli, Andrea

2016-01-01

The ability of “looking into the future”—namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body—represents a fundamental function of human (and animal) brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball's direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent's next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes—in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behavior of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain's ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic) simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality. PMID:27199648

Competitive Abilities in Experimental Microcosms Are Accurately Predicted by a Demographic Index for R*

PubMed Central

Murrell, Ebony G.; Juliano, Steven A.

2012-01-01

Resource competition theory predicts that R*, the equilibrium resource amount yielding zero growth of a consumer population, should predict species' competitive abilities for that resource. This concept has been supported for unicellular organisms, but has not been well-tested for metazoans, probably due to the difficulty of raising experimental populations to equilibrium and measuring population growth rates for species with long or complex life cycles. We developed an index (Rindex) of R* based on demography of one insect cohort, growing from egg to adult in a non-equilibrium setting, and tested whether Rindex yielded accurate predictions of competitive abilities using mosquitoes as a model system. We estimated finite rate of increase (λ′) from demographic data for cohorts of three mosquito species raised with different detritus amounts, and estimated each species' Rindex using nonlinear regressions of λ′ vs. initial detritus amount. All three species' Rindex differed significantly, and accurately predicted competitive hierarchy of the species determined in simultaneous pairwise competition experiments. Our Rindex could provide estimates and rigorous statistical comparisons of competitive ability for organisms for which typical chemostat methods and equilibrium population conditions are impractical. PMID:22970128

Comparative evaluation of atom mapping algorithms for balanced metabolic reactions: application to Recon 3D

DOE PAGES

Preciat Gonzalez, German A.; El Assal, Lemmer R. P.; Noronha, Alberto; ...

2017-06-14

The mechanism of each chemical reaction in a metabolic network can be represented as a set of atom mappings, each of which relates an atom in a substrate metabolite to an atom of the same element in a product metabolite. Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions typically represent biochemistry at the level of reaction stoichiometry. However, a more detailed representation at the underlying level of atom mappings opens the possibility for a broader range of biological, biomedical and biotechnological applications than with stoichiometry alone. Complete manual acquisition of atom mapping data for a genome-scale metabolic network is a laborious process. However, manymore » algorithms exist to predict atom mappings. How do their predictions compare to each other and to manually curated atom mappings? For more than four thousand metabolic reactions in the latest human metabolic reconstruction, Recon 3D, we compared the atom mappings predicted by six atom mapping algorithms. We also compared these predictions to those obtained by manual curation of atom mappings for over five hundred reactions distributed among all top level Enzyme Commission number classes. Five of the evaluated algorithms had similarly high prediction accuracy of over 91% when compared to manually curated atom mapped reactions. On average, the accuracy of the prediction was highest for reactions catalysed by oxidoreductases and lowest for reactions catalysed by ligases. In addition to prediction accuracy, the algorithms were evaluated on their accessibility, their advanced features, such as the ability to identify equivalent atoms, and their ability to map hydrogen atoms. In addition to prediction accuracy, we found that software accessibility and advanced features were fundamental to the selection of an atom mapping algorithm in practice.« less

Comparative evaluation of atom mapping algorithms for balanced metabolic reactions: application to Recon 3D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preciat Gonzalez, German A.; El Assal, Lemmer R. P.; Noronha, Alberto

The mechanism of each chemical reaction in a metabolic network can be represented as a set of atom mappings, each of which relates an atom in a substrate metabolite to an atom of the same element in a product metabolite. Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions typically represent biochemistry at the level of reaction stoichiometry. However, a more detailed representation at the underlying level of atom mappings opens the possibility for a broader range of biological, biomedical and biotechnological applications than with stoichiometry alone. Complete manual acquisition of atom mapping data for a genome-scale metabolic network is a laborious process. However, manymore » algorithms exist to predict atom mappings. How do their predictions compare to each other and to manually curated atom mappings? For more than four thousand metabolic reactions in the latest human metabolic reconstruction, Recon 3D, we compared the atom mappings predicted by six atom mapping algorithms. We also compared these predictions to those obtained by manual curation of atom mappings for over five hundred reactions distributed among all top level Enzyme Commission number classes. Five of the evaluated algorithms had similarly high prediction accuracy of over 91% when compared to manually curated atom mapped reactions. On average, the accuracy of the prediction was highest for reactions catalysed by oxidoreductases and lowest for reactions catalysed by ligases. In addition to prediction accuracy, the algorithms were evaluated on their accessibility, their advanced features, such as the ability to identify equivalent atoms, and their ability to map hydrogen atoms. In addition to prediction accuracy, we found that software accessibility and advanced features were fundamental to the selection of an atom mapping algorithm in practice.« less

Comparative evaluation of atom mapping algorithms for balanced metabolic reactions: application to Recon 3D.

PubMed

Preciat Gonzalez, German A; El Assal, Lemmer R P; Noronha, Alberto; Thiele, Ines; Haraldsdóttir, Hulda S; Fleming, Ronan M T

2017-06-14

The mechanism of each chemical reaction in a metabolic network can be represented as a set of atom mappings, each of which relates an atom in a substrate metabolite to an atom of the same element in a product metabolite. Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions typically represent biochemistry at the level of reaction stoichiometry. However, a more detailed representation at the underlying level of atom mappings opens the possibility for a broader range of biological, biomedical and biotechnological applications than with stoichiometry alone. Complete manual acquisition of atom mapping data for a genome-scale metabolic network is a laborious process. However, many algorithms exist to predict atom mappings. How do their predictions compare to each other and to manually curated atom mappings? For more than four thousand metabolic reactions in the latest human metabolic reconstruction, Recon 3D, we compared the atom mappings predicted by six atom mapping algorithms. We also compared these predictions to those obtained by manual curation of atom mappings for over five hundred reactions distributed among all top level Enzyme Commission number classes. Five of the evaluated algorithms had similarly high prediction accuracy of over 91% when compared to manually curated atom mapped reactions. On average, the accuracy of the prediction was highest for reactions catalysed by oxidoreductases and lowest for reactions catalysed by ligases. In addition to prediction accuracy, the algorithms were evaluated on their accessibility, their advanced features, such as the ability to identify equivalent atoms, and their ability to map hydrogen atoms. In addition to prediction accuracy, we found that software accessibility and advanced features were fundamental to the selection of an atom mapping algorithm in practice.

Predicting Word Reading Ability: A Quantile Regression Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIlraith, Autumn L.

2018-01-01

Predictors of early word reading are well established. However, it is unclear if these predictors hold for readers across a range of word reading abilities. This study used quantile regression to investigate predictive relationships at different points in the distribution of word reading. Quantile regression analyses used preschool and…

The Vane Kindergarten Test: Temporal Stability And Ability to Predict Behavioral Criteria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powers, Sandra M.

1977-01-01

The Vane Kindergarten Test (VKT) is judged to have limited usefulness in early detection of learning handicaps for two reasons: (a) Its reliability is too low to allow discrimination between individuals, and (b) The ability of the VKT to predict problem behaviors is quite limited. (Author)

Steps/day ability to predict anthropometric changes is not affected by its plausibility

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We evaluated whether treating steps/day data for implausible values (<500 or >30,000) affected the ability of these data to predict intervention-induced anthropometric (waist circumference, body mass index, percent body fat, and fat mass) changes. Data were from 269 African American participants wh...

Investigating Predictors of Spelling Ability for Adults with Low Literacy Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Talwar, Amani; Cote, Nicole Gilbert; Binder, Katherine

2014-01-01

This study examined whether the spelling abilities of adults with low literacy skills could be predicted by their phonological, orthographic, and morphological awareness. Sixty Adult Basic Education (ABE) students completed several literacy tasks. It was predicted that scores on phonological and orthographic tasks would explain variance in…

Inheritance of Resistance to Sorghum Shoot Fly, Atherigona soccata in Sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Riyazaddin; Are, Ashok Kumar; Munghate, Rajendra Sudhakar; Bhavanasi, Ramaiah; Polavarapu, Kavi Kishor B.; Sharma, Hari Chand

2016-01-01

Sorghum production is affected by a wide array of biotic constraints, of which sorghum shoot fly, Atherigona soccata is the most important pest, which severely damages the sorghum crop during the seedling stage. Host plant resistance is one of the major components to control sorghum shoot fly, A. soccata. To understand the nature of gene action for inheritance of shoot fly resistance, we evaluated 10 parents, 45 F1's and their reciprocals in replicated trials during the rainy and postrainy seasons. The genotypes ICSV 700, Phule Anuradha, ICSV 25019, PS 35805, IS 2123, IS 2146, and IS 18551 exhibited resistance to shoot fly damage across seasons. Crosses between susceptible parents were preferred for egg laying by the shoot fly females, resulting in a susceptible reaction. ICSV 700, ICSV 25019, PS 35805, IS 2123, IS 2146, and IS 18551 exhibited significant and negative general combining ability (gca) effects for oviposition, deadheart incidence, and overall resistance score. The plant morphological traits associated with expression of resistance/susceptibility to shoot fly damage such as leaf glossiness, plant vigor, and leafsheath pigmentation also showed significant gca effects by these genotypes, suggesting the potential for use as a selection criterion to breed for resistance to shoot fly, A. soccata. ICSV 700, Phule Anuradha, IS 2146 and IS 18551 with significant positive gca effects for trichome density can also be utilized in improving sorghums for shoot fly resistance. The parents involved in hybrids with negative specific combining ability (sca) effects for shoot fly resistance traits can be used in developing sorghum hybrids with adaptation to postrainy season. The significant reciprocal effects of combining abilities for oviposition, leaf glossy score and trichome density suggested the influence of cytoplasmic factors in inheritance of shoot fly resistance. Higher values of variance due to specific combining ability (σ2s), dominance variance (σ2d), and lower predictability ratios than the variance due to general combining ability (σ2g) and additive variance (σ2a) for shoot fly resistance traits indicated the predominance of dominance type of gene action, whereas trichome density, leaf glossy score, and plant vigor score with high σ2g, additive variance, predictability ratio, and the ratio of general combining ability to the specific combining ability showed predominance of additive type of gene action indicating importance of heterosis breeding followed by simple selection in breeding shoot fly-resistant sorghums. Most of the traits exhibited high broadsense heritability, indicating high inheritance of shoot fly resistance traits. PMID:27200020

Narrative Ability of Children With Speech Sound Disorders and the Prediction of Later Literacy Skills

PubMed Central

Wellman, Rachel L.; Lewis, Barbara A.; Freebairn, Lisa A.; Avrich, Allison A.; Hansen, Amy J.; Stein, Catherine M.

2012-01-01

Purpose The main purpose of this study was to examine how children with isolated speech sound disorders (SSDs; n = 20), children with combined SSDs and language impairment (LI; n = 20), and typically developing children (n = 20), ages 3;3 (years;months) to 6;6, differ in narrative ability. The second purpose was to determine if early narrative ability predicts school-age (8–12 years) literacy skills. Method This study employed a longitudinal cohort design. The children completed a narrative retelling task before their formal literacy instruction began. The narratives were analyzed and compared for group differences. Performance on these early narratives was then used to predict the children’s reading decoding, reading comprehension, and written language ability at school age. Results Significant group differences were found in children’s (a) ability to answer questions about the story, (b) use of story grammars, and (c) number of correct and irrelevant utterances. Regression analysis demonstrated that measures of story structure and accuracy were the best predictors of the decoding of real words, reading comprehension, and written language. Measures of syntax and lexical diversity were the best predictors of the decoding of nonsense words. Conclusion Combined SSDs and LI, and not isolated SSDs, impact a child’s narrative abilities. Narrative retelling is a useful task for predicting which children may be at risk for later literacy problems. PMID:21969531

Predictive model for risk of cesarean section in pregnant women after induction of labor.

PubMed

Hernández-Martínez, Antonio; Pascual-Pedreño, Ana I; Baño-Garnés, Ana B; Melero-Jiménez, María R; Tenías-Burillo, José M; Molina-Alarcón, Milagros

2016-03-01

To develop a predictive model for risk of cesarean section in pregnant women after induction of labor. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 861 induced labors during 2009, 2010, and 2011 at Hospital "La Mancha-Centro" in Alcázar de San Juan, Spain. Multivariate analysis was used with binary logistic regression and areas under the ROC curves to determine predictive ability. Two predictive models were created: model A predicts the outcome at the time the woman is admitted to the hospital (before the decision to of the method of induction); and model B predicts the outcome at the time the woman is definitely admitted to the labor room. The predictive factors in the final model were: maternal height, body mass index, nulliparity, Bishop score, gestational age, macrosomia, gender of fetus, and the gynecologist's overall cesarean section rate. The predictive ability of model A was 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.80] and model B was 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.83). The predictive ability for pregnant women with previous cesarean section with model A was 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.94) and with model B was 0.80 (95% CI 0.64-0.96). For a probability of estimated cesarean section ≥80%, the models A and B presented a positive likelihood ratio (+LR) for cesarean section of 22 and 20, respectively. Also, for a likelihood of estimated cesarean section ≤10%, the models A and B presented a +LR for vaginal delivery of 13 and 6, respectively. These predictive models have a good discriminative ability, both overall and for all subgroups studied. This tool can be useful in clinical practice, especially for pregnant women with previous cesarean section and diabetes.

Genomic Prediction Accounting for Genotype by Environment Interaction Offers an Effective Framework for Breeding Simultaneously for Adaptation to an Abiotic Stress and Performance Under Normal Cropping Conditions in Rice.

PubMed

Ben Hassen, Manel; Bartholomé, Jérôme; Valè, Giampiero; Cao, Tuong-Vi; Ahmadi, Nourollah

2018-05-09

Developing rice varieties adapted to alternate wetting and drying water management is crucial for the sustainability of irrigated rice cropping systems. Here we report the first study exploring the feasibility of breeding rice for adaptation to alternate wetting and drying using genomic prediction methods that account for genotype by environment interactions. Two breeding populations (a reference panel of 284 accessions and a progeny population of 97 advanced lines) were evaluated under alternate wetting and drying and continuous flooding management systems. The predictive ability of genomic prediction for response variables (index of relative performance and the slope of the joint regression) and for multi-environment genomic prediction models were compared. For the three traits considered (days to flowering, panicle weight and nitrogen-balance index), significant genotype by environment interactions were observed in both populations. In cross validation, predictive ability for the index was on average lower (0.31) than that of the slope of the joint regression (0.64) whatever the trait considered. Similar results were found for progeny validation. Both cross-validation and progeny validation experiments showed that the performance of multi-environment models predicting unobserved phenotypes of untested entrees was similar to the performance of single environment models with differences in predictive ability ranging from -6% to 4% depending on the trait and on the statistical model concerned. The predictive ability of multi-environment models predicting unobserved phenotypes of entrees evaluated under both water management systems outperformed single environment models by an average of 30%. Practical implications for breeding rice for adaptation to alternate wetting and drying system are discussed. Copyright © 2018, G3: Genes, Genomes, Genetics.

Face engagement during infancy predicts later face recognition ability in younger siblings of children with autism.

PubMed

de Klerk, Carina C J M; Gliga, Teodora; Charman, Tony; Johnson, Mark H

2014-07-01

Face recognition difficulties are frequently documented in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). It has been hypothesized that these difficulties result from a reduced interest in faces early in life, leading to decreased cortical specialization and atypical development of the neural circuitry for face processing. However, a recent study by our lab demonstrated that infants at increased familial risk for ASD, irrespective of their diagnostic status at 3 years, exhibit a clear orienting response to faces. The present study was conducted as a follow-up on the same cohort to investigate how measures of early engagement with faces relate to face-processing abilities later in life. We also investigated whether face recognition difficulties are specifically related to an ASD diagnosis, or whether they are present at a higher rate in all those at familial risk. At 3 years we found a reduced ability to recognize unfamiliar faces in the high-risk group that was not specific to those children who received an ASD diagnosis, consistent with face recognition difficulties being an endophenotype of the disorder. Furthermore, we found that longer looking at faces at 7 months was associated with poorer performance on the face recognition task at 3 years in the high-risk group. These findings suggest that longer looking at faces in infants at risk for ASD might reflect early face-processing difficulties and predicts difficulties with recognizing faces later in life. © 2013 The Authors. Developmental Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Examination of the Developmental Propensity Model of Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Rhee, Soo Hyun; Friedman, Naomi P.; Corley, Robin P.; Hewitt, John K.; Hink, Laura K.; Johnson, Daniel P.; Watts, Ashley K. Smith; Young, Susan E.; Robinson, JoAnn; Waldman, Irwin D.; Zahn-Waxler, Carolyn

2015-01-01

The present study tested specific hypotheses advanced by the developmental propensity model of the etiology of conduct problems in the Colorado Longitudinal Twin Study, a prospective, longitudinal, genetically informative sample. High negative emotionality, low behavioral inhibition, low concern and high disregard for others, and low cognitive ability assessed during toddlerhood (age 14 to 36 months) were examined as predictors of conduct problems in later childhood and adolescence (age 4 to 17 years). Each hypothesized antisocial propensity dimension predicted conduct problems, but some predictions may be context specific or due to method covariance. The most robust predictors were observed disregard for others (i.e., responding to others’ distress with active, negative responses such as anger and hostility), general cognitive ability, and language ability, which were associated with conduct problems reported by parents, teachers, and adolescents, and change in observed negative emotionality (i.e., frustration tolerance), which was associated with conduct problems reported by teachers and adolescents. Furthermore, associations between the most robust early predictors and later conduct problems were influenced by the shared environment rather than genes. We conclude that shared environmental influences that promote disregard for others and detract from cognitive and language development during toddlerhood also predispose individuals to conduct problems in later childhood and adolescence. The identification of those shared environmental influences common to early antisocial propensity and later conduct problems is an important future direction, and additional developmental behavior genetic studies examining the interaction between children’s characteristics and socializing influences on conduct problems are needed. PMID:26653135

The gradient boosting algorithm and random boosting for genome-assisted evaluation in large data sets.

PubMed

González-Recio, O; Jiménez-Montero, J A; Alenda, R

2013-01-01

In the next few years, with the advent of high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays and genome sequencing, genomic evaluation methods will need to deal with a large number of genetic variants and an increasing sample size. The boosting algorithm is a machine-learning technique that may alleviate the drawbacks of dealing with such large data sets. This algorithm combines different predictors in a sequential manner with some shrinkage on them; each predictor is applied consecutively to the residuals from the committee formed by the previous ones to form a final prediction based on a subset of covariates. Here, a detailed description is provided and examples using a toy data set are included. A modification of the algorithm called "random boosting" was proposed to increase predictive ability and decrease computation time of genome-assisted evaluation in large data sets. Random boosting uses a random selection of markers to add a subsequent weak learner to the predictive model. These modifications were applied to a real data set composed of 1,797 bulls genotyped for 39,714 SNP. Deregressed proofs of 4 yield traits and 1 type trait from January 2009 routine evaluations were used as dependent variables. A 2-fold cross-validation scenario was implemented. Sires born before 2005 were used as a training sample (1,576 and 1,562 for production and type traits, respectively), whereas younger sires were used as a testing sample to evaluate predictive ability of the algorithm on yet-to-be-observed phenotypes. Comparison with the original algorithm was provided. The predictive ability of the algorithm was measured as Pearson correlations between observed and predicted responses. Further, estimated bias was computed as the average difference between observed and predicted phenotypes. The results showed that the modification of the original boosting algorithm could be run in 1% of the time used with the original algorithm and with negligible differences in accuracy and bias. This modification may be used to speed the calculus of genome-assisted evaluation in large data sets such us those obtained from consortiums. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Different Underlying Motivations and Abilities Predict Student versus Teacher Persistence in an Online Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higashi, Ross M.; Schunn, Christian D.; Flot, Jesse B.

2017-01-01

Free online courses, including Massively Open Online Courses, have great potential to increase the inclusiveness of education, but suffer from very high course dropout rates. A study of 172 K-12 students and 114 K-12 teachers taking the same free, online, summertime programming course finds that student and teacher populations have different…

The Power of the Pygmalion Effect: Teachers' Expectations Strongly Predict College Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boser, Ulrich; Wilhelm, Megan; Hanna, Robert

2014-01-01

People do better when more is expected of them. In education circles, this is called the Pygmalion Effect. It has been demonstrated in study after study, and the results can sometimes be quite significant. In one research project, for instance, teacher expectations of a pre-schooler's ability was a robust predictor of the child's high school GPA.…

SAT Wars: The Case for Test-Optional College Admissions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soares, Joseph A., Ed.

2011-01-01

What can a college admissions officer safely predict about the future of a 17-year-old? Are the best and the brightest students the ones who can check off the most correct boxes on a multiple-choice exam? Or are there better ways of measuring ability and promise? In this penetrating and revealing look at high-stakes standardized admissions tests,…

Failure Mechanisms and Life Prediction of Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings under Thermal Gradients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zju, Dongming; Ghosn, Louis J.; Miller, Robert A.

2008-01-01

Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) will play an increasingly important role in gas turbine engines because of their ability to further raise engine temperatures. However, the issue of coating durability is of major concern under high-heat-flux conditions. In particular, the accelerated coating delamination crack growth under the engine high heat-flux conditions is not well understood. In this paper, a laser heat flux technique is used to investigate the coating delamination crack propagation under realistic temperature-stress gradients and thermal cyclic conditions. The coating delamination mechanisms are investigated under various thermal loading conditions, and are correlated with coating dynamic fatigue, sintering and interfacial adhesion test results. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the crack initiation and propagation driving forces for coating failure under high-heat-flux test conditions.

Asymmetric patch size distribution leads to disruptive selection on dispersal.

PubMed

Massol, François; Duputié, Anne; David, Patrice; Jarne, Philippe

2011-02-01

Numerous models have been designed to understand how dispersal ability evolves when organisms live in a fragmented landscape. Most of them predict a single dispersal rate at evolutionary equilibrium, and when diversification of dispersal rates has been predicted, it occurs as a response to perturbation or environmental fluctuation regimes. Yet abundant variation in dispersal ability is observed in natural populations and communities, even in relatively stable environments. We show that this diversification can operate in a simple island model without temporal variability: disruptive selection on dispersal occurs when the environment consists of many small and few large patches, a common feature in natural spatial systems. This heterogeneity in patch size results in a high variability in the number of related patch mates by individual, which, in turn, triggers disruptive selection through a high per capita variance of inclusive fitness. Our study provides a likely, parsimonious and testable explanation for the diversity of dispersal rates encountered in nature. It also suggests that biological conservation policies aiming at preserving ecological communities should strive to keep the distribution of patch size sufficiently asymmetric and variable. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Toward patient-specific articular contact mechanics

PubMed Central

Ateshian, Gerard A.; Henak, Corinne R.; Weiss, Jeffrey A.

2015-01-01

The mechanics of contacting cartilage layers is fundamentally important to understanding the development, homeostasis and pathology of diarthrodial joints. Because of the highly nonlinear nature of both the materials and the contact problem itself, numerical methods such as the finite element method are typically incorporated to obtain solutions. Over the course of five decades, we have moved from an initial qualitative understanding of articular cartilage material behavior to the ability to perform complex, three-dimensional contact analysis, including multiphasic material representations. This history includes the development of analytical and computational contact analysis methods that now provide the ability to perform highly nonlinear analyses. Numerical implementations of contact analysis based on the finite element method are rapidly advancing and will soon enable patient-specific analysis of joint contact mechanics using models based on medical image data. In addition to contact stress on the articular surfaces, these techniques can predict variations in strain and strain through the cartilage layers, providing the basis to predict damage and failure. This opens up exciting areas for future research and application to patient-specific diagnosis and treatment planning applied to a variety of pathologies that affect joint function and cartilage homeostasis. PMID:25698236

The effects of family, school, and classroom ecologies on changes in children's social competence and emotional and behavioral problems in first grade.

PubMed

Hoglund, Wendy L; Leadbeater, Bonnie J

2004-07-01

This study tested the independent and interactive influences of classroom (concentrations of peer prosocial behaviors and victimization), family (household moves, mothers' education), and school (proportion of students receiving income assistance) ecologies on changes in children's social competence (e.g., interpersonal skills, leadership abilities), emotional problems (e.g., anxious, withdrawn behaviors), and behavioral problems (e.g., disruptiveness, aggressiveness) in first grade. Higher classroom concentrations of prosocial behaviors and victimization predicted increases in social competence, and greater school disadvantage predicted decreases. Multiple household moves and greater school disadvantage predicted increases in behavioral problems. Multiple household moves and low levels of mothers' education predicted increases in emotional problems for children in classrooms with few prosocial behaviors. Greater school disadvantage predicted increases in emotional problems for children in classrooms with low prosocial behaviors and high victimization. Policy implications of these findings are considered. Copyright 2004 APA, all rights reserved

pKa prediction of monoprotic small molecules the SMARTS way.

PubMed

Lee, Adam C; Yu, Jing-Yu; Crippen, Gordon M

2008-10-01

Realizing favorable absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination, and toxicity profiles is a necessity due to the high attrition rate of lead compounds in drug development today. The ability to accurately predict bioavailability can help save time and money during the screening and optimization processes. As several robust programs already exist for predicting logP, we have turned our attention to the fast and robust prediction of pK(a) for small molecules. Using curated data from the Beilstein Database and Lange's Handbook of Chemistry, we have created a decision tree based on a novel set of SMARTS strings that can accurately predict the pK(a) for monoprotic compounds with R(2) of 0.94 and root mean squared error of 0.68. Leave-some-out (10%) cross-validation achieved Q(2) of 0.91 and root mean squared error of 0.80.

Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes.

PubMed

Ye, Jiang-Feng; Zhao, Yu-Xin; Ju, Jian; Wang, Wei

2017-10-01

To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP. In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping. Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-value<0.001), whereas RDW is not a prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-value<0.001), and MEWS is not an independent prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-value<0.001). The constructed model is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for the predictive ability using the newly built prediction model as well as BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually (P-value<0.01). Verification of the internal validity of the models by bootstrapping is favorable. BISAP and serum Ca2+ have high predictive value for the severity of AP. However, the model built by combining BISAP and serum Ca2+ is remarkably superior to those of BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually. Furthermore, this model is simple, practical and appropriate for clinical use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

The predictive validity of quality of evidence grades for the stability of effect estimates was low: a meta-epidemiological study.

PubMed

Gartlehner, Gerald; Dobrescu, Andreea; Evans, Tammeka Swinson; Bann, Carla; Robinson, Karen A; Reston, James; Thaler, Kylie; Skelly, Andrea; Glechner, Anna; Peterson, Kimberly; Kien, Christina; Lohr, Kathleen N

2016-02-01

To determine the predictive validity of the U.S. Evidence-based Practice Center (EPC) approach to GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). Based on Cochrane reports with outcomes graded as high quality of evidence (QOE), we prepared 160 documents which represented different levels of QOE. Professional systematic reviewers dually graded the QOE. For each document, we determined whether estimates were concordant with high QOE estimates of the Cochrane reports. We compared the observed proportion of concordant estimates with the expected proportion from an international survey. To determine the predictive validity, we used the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to assess calibration and the C (concordance) index to assess discrimination. The predictive validity of the EPC approach to GRADE was limited. Estimates graded as high QOE were less likely, estimates graded as low or insufficient QOE more likely to remain stable than expected. The EPC approach to GRADE could not reliably predict the likelihood that individual bodies of evidence remain stable as new evidence becomes available. C-indices ranged between 0.56 (95% CI, 0.47 to 0.66) and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.50 to 0.67) indicating a low discriminatory ability. The limited predictive validity of the EPC approach to GRADE seems to reflect a mismatch between expected and observed changes in treatment effects as bodies of evidence advance from insufficient to high QOE. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification and characterization of three Vibrio alginolyticus non-coding RNAs involved in adhesion, chemotaxis, and motility processes.

PubMed

Huang, Lixing; Hu, Jiao; Su, Yongquan; Qin, Yingxue; Kong, Wendi; Ma, Ying; Xu, Xiaojin; Lin, Mao; Yan, Qingpi

2015-01-01

The capability of Vibrio alginolyticus to adhere to fish mucus is a key virulence factor of the bacteria. Our previous research showed that stress conditions, such as Cu(2+), Pb(2+), Hg(2+), and low pH, can reduce this adhesion ability. Non-coding (nc) RNAs play a crucial role in regulating bacterial gene expression, affecting the bacteria's pathogenicity. To investigate the mechanism(s) underlying the decline in adhesion ability caused by stressors, we combined high-throughput sequencing with computational techniques to detect stressed ncRNA dynamics. These approaches yielded three commonly altered ncRNAs that are predicted to regulate the bacterial chemotaxis pathway, which plays a key role in the adhesion process of bacteria. We hypothesized they play a key role in the adhesion process of V. alginolyticus. In this study, we validated the effects of these three ncRNAs on their predicted target genes and their role in the V. alginolyticus adhesion process with RNA interference (i), quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), northern blot, capillary assay, and in vitro adhesion assays. The expression of these ncRNAs and their predicted target genes were confirmed by qPCR and northern blot, which reinforced the reliability of the sequencing data and the target prediction. Overexpression of these ncRNAs was capable of reducing the chemotactic and adhesion ability of V. alginolyticus, and the expression levels of their target genes were also significantly reduced. Our results indicated that these three ncRNAs: (1) are able to regulate the bacterial chemotaxis pathway, and (2) play a key role in the adhesion process of V. alginolyticus.

Multiple receptor conformation docking and dock pose clustering as tool for CoMFA and CoMSIA analysis - a case study on HIV-1 protease inhibitors.

PubMed

Sivan, Sree Kanth; Manga, Vijjulatha

2012-02-01

Multiple receptors conformation docking (MRCD) and clustering of dock poses allows seamless incorporation of receptor binding conformation of the molecules on wide range of ligands with varied structural scaffold. The accuracy of the approach was tested on a set of 120 cyclic urea molecules having HIV-1 protease inhibitory activity using 12 high resolution X-ray crystal structures and one NMR resolved conformation of HIV-1 protease extracted from protein data bank. A cross validation was performed on 25 non-cyclic urea HIV-1 protease inhibitor having varied structures. The comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (CoMSIA) models were generated using 60 molecules in the training set by applying leave one out cross validation method, r (loo) (2) values of 0.598 and 0.674 for CoMFA and CoMSIA respectively and non-cross validated regression coefficient r(2) values of 0.983 and 0.985 were obtained for CoMFA and CoMSIA respectively. The predictive ability of these models was determined using a test set of 60 cyclic urea molecules that gave predictive correlation (r (pred) (2) ) of 0.684 and 0.64 respectively for CoMFA and CoMSIA indicating good internal predictive ability. Based on this information 25 non-cyclic urea molecules were taken as a test set to check the external predictive ability of these models. This gave remarkable out come with r (pred) (2) of 0.61 and 0.53 for CoMFA and CoMSIA respectively. The results invariably show that this method is useful for performing 3D QSAR analysis on molecules having different structural motifs.

Physiologically grounded metrics of model skill: a case study estimating heat stress in intertidal populations

PubMed Central

Kish, Nicole E.; Helmuth, Brian; Wethey, David S.

2016-01-01

Models of ecological responses to climate change fundamentally assume that predictor variables, which are often measured at large scales, are to some degree diagnostic of the smaller-scale biological processes that ultimately drive patterns of abundance and distribution. Given that organisms respond physiologically to stressors, such as temperature, in highly non-linear ways, small modelling errors in predictor variables can potentially result in failures to predict mortality or severe stress, especially if an organism exists near its physiological limits. As a result, a central challenge facing ecologists, particularly those attempting to forecast future responses to environmental change, is how to develop metrics of forecast model skill (the ability of a model to predict defined events) that are biologically meaningful and reflective of underlying processes. We quantified the skill of four simple models of body temperature (a primary determinant of physiological stress) of an intertidal mussel, Mytilus californianus, using common metrics of model performance, such as root mean square error, as well as forecast verification skill scores developed by the meteorological community. We used a physiologically grounded framework to assess each model's ability to predict optimal, sub-optimal, sub-lethal and lethal physiological responses. Models diverged in their ability to predict different levels of physiological stress when evaluated using skill scores, even though common metrics, such as root mean square error, indicated similar accuracy overall. Results from this study emphasize the importance of grounding assessments of model skill in the context of an organism's physiology and, especially, of considering the implications of false-positive and false-negative errors when forecasting the ecological effects of environmental change. PMID:27729979

Can we predict functional decline in hospitalized older people admitted through the emergency department? Reanalysis of a predictive tool ten years after its conception.

PubMed

De Brauwer, Isabelle; Cornette, Pascale; Boland, Benoît; Verschuren, Franck; D'Hoore, William

2017-05-12

In the Emergency Department (ED), early and rapid identification of older people at risk of adverse outcomes, who could best benefit from complex geriatric intervention, would avoid wasting time, especially in terms of prevention of adverse outcomes, and ensure optimal orientation of vulnerable patients. We wanted to test the predictive ability of a screening tool assessing risk of functional decline (FD), named SHERPA, 10 years after its conception, and to assess the added value of other clinical or biological factors associated with FD. A prospective cohort study of older patients (n = 305, ≥ 75 years) admitted through the emergency department, for at least 48 h in non-geriatric wards (mean age 82.5 ± 4.9, 55% women). SHERPA variables (i.e. age, pre-admission instrumental Activity of Daily Living (ADL) status, falls within a year, self-rated health and 21-point MMSE) were collected within 48 h of admission, along with socio-demographic, medical and biological data. Functional status was followed at 3 months by phone. FD was defined as a decrease at 3 months of at least one point in the pre-admission basic ADL score. Predictive ability of SHERPA was assessed using c-statistic, predictive values and likelihood ratios. Measures of discrimination improvement were Net Reclassification Improvement and Integrated Discrimination Improvement. One hundred and five patients (34%) developed 3-month FD. Predictive ability of SHERPA decreased dramatically over 10 years (c = 0.73 vs. 0.64). Only two of its constitutive variables, i.e. falls and instrumental ADL, were significant in logistic regression analysis for functional decline, while 21-point MMSE was kept in the model for clinical relevance. Demographic, comorbidity or laboratory data available upon admission did not improve the SHERPA predictive yield. Prediction of FD with SHERPA is difficult, but predictive factors, i.e. falls, pre-existing functional limitation and cognitive impairment, stay consistent across time and with literature. As accuracy of SHERPA and others existing screening tools for FD is moderate, using these predictors as flags instead of using composite scales can be a way to screen for high-risk patients.

Self-assessment in schizophrenia: Accuracy of evaluation of cognition and everyday functioning.

PubMed

Gould, Felicia; McGuire, Laura Stone; Durand, Dante; Sabbag, Samir; Larrauri, Carlos; Patterson, Thomas L; Twamley, Elizabeth W; Harvey, Philip D

2015-09-01

Self-assessment deficits, often referred to as impaired insight or unawareness of illness, are well established in people with schizophrenia. There are multiple levels of awareness, including awareness of symptoms, functional deficits, cognitive impairments, and the ability to monitor cognitive and functional performance in an ongoing manner. The present study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive value of each aspect of awareness on the levels of everyday functioning in people with schizophrenia. We examined multiple aspects of self-assessment of functioning in 214 people with schizophrenia. We also collected information on everyday functioning rated by high contact clinicians and examined the importance of self-assessment for the prediction of real-world functional outcomes. The relative impact of performance-based measures of cognition, functional capacity, and metacognitive performance on everyday functioning was also examined. Misestimation of ability emerged as the strongest predictor of real-world functioning and exceeded the influences of cognitive performance, functional capacity performance, and performance-based assessment of metacognitive monitoring. The relative contribution of the factors other than self-assessment varied according to which domain of everyday functioning was being examined, but, in all cases, accounted for less predictive variance. These results underscore the functional impact of misestimating one's current functioning and relative level of ability. These findings are consistent with the use of insight-focused treatments and compensatory strategies designed to increase self-awareness in multiple functional domains. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Self Assessment in Schizophrenia: Accuracy of Evaluation of Cognition and Everyday Functioning

PubMed Central

Gould, Felicia; McGuire, Laura Stone; Durand, Dante; Sabbag, Samir; Larrauri, Carlos; Patterson, Thomas L.; Twamley, Elizabeth W.; Harvey, Philip D.

2015-01-01

Objective Self-assessment deficits, often referred to as impaired insight or unawareness of illness, are well established in people with schizophrenia. There are multiple levels of awareness, including awareness of symptoms, functional deficits, cognitive impairments, and the ability to monitor cognitive and functional performance in an ongoing manner. The present study aimed to evaluate the comparative predictive value of each aspect of awareness on the levels of everyday functioning in people with schizophrenia. Method We examined multiple aspects of self-assessment of functioning in 214 people with schizophrenia. We also collected information on everyday functioning rated by high contact clinicians and examined the importance of self-assessment for the prediction of real world functional outcomes. The relative impact of performance based measures of cognition, functional capacity, and metacognitive performance on everyday functioning was also examined. Results Misestimation of ability emerged as the strongest predictor of real world functioning and exceeded the influences of cognitive performance, functional capacity performance, and performance-based assessment of metacognitive monitoring. The relative contribution of the factors other than self-assessment varied according to which domain of everyday functioning was being examined, but in all cases, accounted for less predictive variance. Conclusions These results underscore the functional impact of misestimating one’s current functioning and relative level of ability. These findings are consistent with the use of insight-focused treatments and compensatory strategies designed to increase self-awareness in multiple functional domains. PMID:25643212

Selfing ability and dispersal are positively related, but not affected by range position: a multispecies study on southern African Asteraceae.

PubMed

de Waal, C; Rodger, J G; Anderson, B; Ellis, A G

2014-05-01

Dispersal and breeding system traits are thought to affect colonization success. As species have attained their present distribution ranges through colonization, these traits may vary geographically. Although several theories predict associations between dispersal ability, selfing ability and the relative position of a population within its geographic range, there is little theoretical or empirical consensus on exactly how these three variables are related. We investigated relationships between dispersal ability, selfing ability and range position across 28 populations of 13 annual, wind-dispersed Asteraceae species from the Namaqualand region of South Africa. Controlling for phylogeny, relative dispersal ability--assessed from vertical fall time of fruits--was positively related to an index of autofertility--determined from hand-pollination experiments. These findings support the existence of two discrete syndromes: high selfing ability associated with good dispersal and obligate outcrossing associated with lower dispersal ability. This is consistent with the hypothesis that selection for colonization success drives the evolution of an association between these traits. However, no general effect of range position on dispersal or breeding system traits was evident. This suggests selection on both breeding system and dispersal traits acts consistently across distribution ranges. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Estimating verbal fluency and naming ability from the test of premorbid functioning and demographic variables: Regression equations derived from a regional UK sample.

PubMed

Jenkinson, Toni-Marie; Muncer, Steven; Wheeler, Miranda; Brechin, Don; Evans, Stephen

2018-06-01

Neuropsychological assessment requires accurate estimation of an individual's premorbid cognitive abilities. Oral word reading tests, such as the test of premorbid functioning (TOPF), and demographic variables, such as age, sex, and level of education, provide a reasonable indication of premorbid intelligence, but their ability to predict other related cognitive abilities is less well understood. This study aimed to develop regression equations, based on the TOPF and demographic variables, to predict scores on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. A sample of 119 healthy adults provided demographic information and were tested using the TOPF, FAS, animal naming test (ANT), and graded naming test (GNT). Multiple regression analyses, using the TOPF and demographics as predictor variables, were used to estimate verbal fluency and naming ability test scores. Change scores and cases of significant impairment were calculated for two clinical samples with diagnosed neurological conditions (TBI and meningioma) using the method in Knight, McMahon, Green, and Skeaff (). Demographic variables provided a significant contribution to the prediction of all verbal fluency and naming ability test scores; however, adding TOPF score to the equation considerably improved prediction beyond that afforded by demographic variables alone. The percentage of variance accounted for by demographic variables and/or TOPF score varied from 19 per cent (FAS), 28 per cent (ANT), and 41 per cent (GNT). Change scores revealed significant differences in performance in the clinical groups, particularity the TBI group. Demographic variables, particularly education level, and scores on the TOPF should be taken into consideration when interpreting performance on tests of verbal fluency and naming ability. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Temporal prediction abilities are mediated by motor effector and rhythmic expertise.

PubMed

Manning, Fiona C; Harris, Jennifer; Schutz, Michael

2017-03-01

Motor synchronization is a critical part of musical performance and listening. Recently, motor control research has described how movements that contain more available degrees of freedom are more accurately timed. Previously, we demonstrated that stick tapping improves perception in a timing detection task, where percussionists greatly outperformed non-percussionists only when tapping along. Since most synchronization studies implement finger tapping to examine simple motor synchronization, here we completed a similar task where percussionists and non-percussionists synchronized using finger tapping; movement with fewer degrees of freedom than stick tapping. Percussionists and non-percussionists listened to an isochronous beat sequence and identified the timing of a probe tone. On half of the trials, they tapped along with their index finger, and on the other half of the trials, they listened without moving prior to making timing judgments. We found that both groups benefited from tapping overall. Interestingly, percussionists performed only marginally better than did non-percussionists when finger tapping and no different when listening alone, differing from past studies reporting highly superior timing abilities in percussionists. Additionally, we found that percussionist finger tapping was less variable and less asynchronous than was non-percussionist tapping. Moreover, in both groups finger tapping was more variable and more asynchronous than stick tapping in our previous study. This study demonstrates that the motor effector implemented in tapping studies affects not only synchronization abilities, but also subsequent prediction abilities. We discuss these findings in light of effector-specific training and degrees of freedom in motor timing, both of which impact timing abilities to different extents.

Chemical composition analysis and product consistency tests supporting refinement of the Nepheline model for the high aluminum Hanford Glass composition region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, K. M.; Edwards, T. B.; Mcclane, D. L.

2016-02-17

In this report, SRNL provides chemical analyses and Product Consistency Test (PCT) results for a series of simulated HLW glasses fabricated by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as part of an ongoing nepheline crystallization study. The results of these analyses will be used to improve the ability to predict crystallization of nepheline as a function of composition and heat treatment for glasses formulated at high alumina concentrations.

Modeling the behavior of an earthquake base-isolated building.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coveney, V. A.; Jamil, S.; Johnson, D. E.

1997-11-26

Protecting a structure against earthquake excitation by supporting it on laminated elastomeric bearings has become a widely accepted practice. The ability to perform accurate simulation of the system, including FEA of the bearings, would be desirable--especially for key installations. In this paper attempts to model the behavior of elastomeric earthquake bearings are outlined. Attention is focused on modeling highly-filled, low-modulus, high-damping elastomeric isolator systems; comparisons are made between standard triboelastic solid model predictions and test results.

Characterizing attention with predictive network models

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, M. D.; Finn, E. S.; Scheinost, D.; Constable, R. T.; Chun, M. M.

2017-01-01

Recent work shows that models based on functional connectivity in large-scale brain networks can predict individuals’ attentional abilities. Some of the first generalizable neuromarkers of cognitive function, these models also inform our basic understanding of attention, providing empirical evidence that (1) attention is a network property of brain computation, (2) the functional architecture that underlies attention can be measured while people are not engaged in any explicit task, and (3) this architecture supports a general attentional ability common to several lab-based tasks and impaired in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Looking ahead, connectivity-based predictive models of attention and other cognitive abilities and behaviors may potentially improve the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical dysfunction. PMID:28238605

Rejection Sensitivity and Executive Control: Joint predictors of Borderline Personality features

PubMed Central

Ayduk, Özlem; Zayas, Vivian; Downey, Geraldine; Cole, Amy Blum; Shoda, Yuichi; Mischel, Walter

2008-01-01

Two studies tested the hypothesis that rejection sensitivity (RS) and executive control (EC) jointly predict borderline personality (BP) features. We expected high RS to be related to increased vulnerability for BP features specifically in people who also had difficulties in executive control (EC). Study 1 tested this hypothesis using a sample of college students (N = 379) whereas Study 2 (N = 104) was conducted using a community sample of adults. Both studies operationalized EC by a self-report measure. For a subsample in Study 2 (N = 80), ability to delay gratification at age 4 was also used as an early behavioral precursor of EC in adulthood. In both studies, high RS was associated with increased BP features among people low in self-reported EC. Among those high in self-reported EC, the relationship between RS and BP features was attenuated. Study 2 found parallel findings using preschool delay ability as a behavioral index of EC. These findings suggest that EC may protect high RS people against BP features. PMID:18496604

Development and validation of a predictive score for perioperative transfusion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver resection.

PubMed

Wang, Hai-Qing; Yang, Jian; Yang, Jia-Yin; Wang, Wen-Tao; Yan, Lu-Nan

2015-08-01

Liver resection is a major surgery requiring perioperative blood transfusion. Predicting the need for blood transfusion for patients undergoing liver resection is of great importance. The present study aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting transfusion requirement in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing liver resection. A total of 1543 consecutive liver resections were included in the study. Randomly selected sample set of 1080 cases (70% of the study cohort) were used to develop a predictive score for transfusion requirement and the remaining 30% (n=463) was used to validate the score. Based on the preoperative and predictable intraoperative parameters, logistic regression was used to identify risk factors and to create an integer score for the prediction of transfusion requirement. Extrahepatic procedure, major liver resection, hemoglobin level and platelets count were identified as independent predictors for transfusion requirement by logistic regression analysis. A score system integrating these 4 factors was stratified into three groups which could predict the risk of transfusion, with a rate of 11.4%, 24.7% and 57.4% for low, moderate and high risk, respectively. The prediction model appeared accurate with good discriminatory abilities, generating an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.736 in the development set and 0.709 in the validation set. We have developed and validated an integer-based risk score to predict perioperative transfusion for patients undergoing liver resection in a high-volume surgical center. This score allows identifying patients at a high risk and may alter transfusion practices.

USAF Flight Test Investigation of Focused Sonic Booms: Project Have Bears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downing, Micah; Zamot, Noel; Moss, Chris; Morin, Daniel; Wolski, Ed; Chung, Sukhwan; Plotkin, Kenneth; Maglieri, Domenic

1996-01-01

Supersonic operations from military aircraft generate sonic booms that can affect people, animals and structures. A substantial experimental data base exists on sonic booms for aircraft in steady flight and confidence in the predictive techniques has been established. All the focus sonic boom data that are in existence today were collected during the 60's and 70's as part of the information base to the US Supersonic Transport program and the French Jericho studies for the Concorde. These experiments formed the data base to develop sonic boom propagation and prediction theories for focusing. There is a renewed interest in high-speed transports for civilian application. Moreover, today's fighter aircraft have better performance capabilities, and supersonic flights ars more common during air combat maneuvers. Most of the existing data on focus booms are related to high-speed civil operations such as transitional linear accelerations and mild turns. However, military aircraft operating in training areas perform more drastic maneuvers such as dives and high-g turns. An update and confirmation of USAF prediction capabilities is required to demonstrate the ability to predict and control sonic boom impacts, especially those produced by air combat maneuvers.

Proposed evaluation framework for assessing operator performance with multisensor displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foyle, David C.

1992-01-01

Despite aggressive work on the development of sensor fusion algorithms and techniques, no formal evaluation procedures have been proposed. Based on existing integration models in the literature, an evaluation framework is developed to assess an operator's ability to use multisensor, or sensor fusion, displays. The proposed evaluation framework for evaluating the operator's ability to use such systems is a normative approach: The operator's performance with the sensor fusion display can be compared to the models' predictions based on the operator's performance when viewing the original sensor displays prior to fusion. This allows for the determination as to when a sensor fusion system leads to: 1) poorer performance than one of the original sensor displays (clearly an undesirable system in which the fused sensor system causes some distortion or interference); 2) better performance than with either single sensor system alone, but at a sub-optimal (compared to the model predictions) level; 3) optimal performance (compared to model predictions); or, 4) super-optimal performance, which may occur if the operator were able to use some highly diagnostic 'emergent features' in the sensor fusion display, which were unavailable in the original sensor displays. An experiment demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed evaluation framework is discussed.

Learning temporal statistics for sensory predictions in mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Di Bernardi Luft, Caroline; Baker, Rosalind; Bentham, Peter; Kourtzi, Zoe

2015-08-01

Training is known to improve performance in a variety of perceptual and cognitive skills. However, there is accumulating evidence that mere exposure (i.e. without supervised training) to regularities (i.e. patterns that co-occur in the environment) facilitates our ability to learn contingencies that allow us to interpret the current scene and make predictions about future events. Recent neuroimaging studies have implicated fronto-striatal and medial temporal lobe brain regions in the learning of spatial and temporal statistics. Here, we ask whether patients with mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease (MCI-AD) that are characterized by hippocampal dysfunction are able to learn temporal regularities and predict upcoming events. We tested the ability of MCI-AD patients and age-matched controls to predict the orientation of a test stimulus following exposure to sequences of leftwards or rightwards orientated gratings. Our results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates the ability to predict an upcoming stimulus in both MCI-AD patients and controls. However, our fMRI results demonstrate that MCI-AD patients recruit an alternate circuit to hippocampus to succeed in learning of predictive structures. In particular, we observed stronger learning-dependent activations for structured sequences in frontal, subcortical and cerebellar regions for patients compared to age-matched controls. Thus, our findings suggest a cortico-striatal-cerebellar network that may mediate the ability for predictive learning despite hippocampal dysfunction in MCI-AD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neurocognitive Predictors of Academic Outcomes among Childhood Leukemia Survivors

PubMed Central

(Ki) Moore, Ida M.; Lupo, Philip J.; Insel, Kathleen; Harris, Lynnette L.; Pasvogel, Alice; Koerner, Kari M.; Adkins, Kristin B.; Taylor, Olga A.; Hockenberry, Marilyn J.

2015-01-01

Background Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common pediatric cancer and survival approaches 90%. ALL survivors are more likely than healthy peers or siblings to experience academic underachievement yet little is known about neurocognitive predictors of academic outcomes. Objective Objectives were to compare neurocognitive abilities to age-adjusted standardized norms; to examine change over time in neurocognitive abilities; and to establish neurocognitive predictors of academic outcomes. Methods Seventy-one children were followed over the course of therapy. Cognitive abilities were assessed during Induction when the child was in remission (Baseline) and annually for 3 years (Year 1, Year 2, Year 3). Reading and mathematics abilities were assessed at Year 3. Results Fine motor dexterity was significantly below age-adjusted norms at all data points, but showed improvement over time. Baseline visual-motor integration was within the normal range but significantly declined by Year 3, and mean scores at Years 2 and 3 were significantly below age-adjusted norms. Verbal short-term memory was significantly below age-adjusted norms at all assessments. Visual-motor integration predicted reading and mathematic abilities. Verbal short-term memory predicted reading abilities, and visual short-term memory predicted mathematic abilities. Conclusions CNS-directed therapy is associated with specific neurocognitive problems. Visual spatial skills, verbal and visual short term memory predict academic outcomes. Implications for practice Early assessment of visual spatial perception and short-term memory can identify children at risk for academic problems. Children who are at risk for academic problems could benefit from a school based Individual Educational Program and/or educational intervention. PMID:26166361

Association of Lipid Accumulation Product with Cardio-Metabolic Risk Factors in Postmenopausal Women.

PubMed

Namazi Shabestari, Alireza; Asadi, Mojgan; Jouyandeh, Zahra; Qorbani, Mostafa; Kelishadi, Roya

2016-06-01

The lipid accumulation product is a novel, safe and inexpensive index of central lipid over accumulation based on waist circumference and fasting concentration of circulating triglycerides. This study was designed to investigate the ability of lipid accumulation product to predict Cardio-metabolic risk factors in postmenopausal women. In this Cross-sectional study, 264 postmenopausal women by using convenience sampling method were selected from menopause clinic in Tehran. Cardio-metabolic risk factors were measured, and lipid accumulation product (waist-58×triglycerides [nmol/L]) was calculated. Optimal cut-off point of lipid accumulation product for predicting metabolic syndrome was estimated by ROC (Receiver-operating characteristic) curve analysis. Metabolic syndrome was diagnosed in 41.2% of subjects. Optimal cut-off point of lipid accumulation product for predicting metabolic syndrome was 47.63 (sensitivity:75%; specificity:77.9%). High lipid accumulation product increases risk of all Cardio-metabolic risk factors except overweight, high Total Cholesterol, high Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and high Fasting Blood Sugar in postmenopausal women. Our findings show that lipid accumulation product is associated with metabolic syndrome and some Cardio-metabolic risk factors Also lipid accumulation product may have been a useful tool for predicting cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome risk in postmenopausal women.

Humans identify negative (but not positive) arousal in silver fox vocalizations: implications for the adaptive value of interspecific eavesdropping.

PubMed

Filippi, Piera; Gogoleva, Svetlana S; Volodina, Elena V; Volodin, Ilya A; de Boer, Bart

2017-08-01

The ability to identify emotional arousal in heterospecific vocalizations may facilitate behaviors that increase survival opportunities. Crucially, this ability may orient inter-species interactions, particularly between humans and other species. Research shows that humans identify emotional arousal in vocalizations across multiple species, such as cats, dogs, and piglets. However, no previous study has addressed humans' ability to identify emotional arousal in silver foxes. Here, we adopted low- and high-arousal calls emitted by three strains of silver fox-Tame, Aggressive, and Unselected-in response to human approach. Tame and Aggressive foxes are genetically selected for friendly and attacking behaviors toward humans, respectively. Unselected foxes show aggressive and fearful behaviors toward humans. These three strains show similar levels of emotional arousal, but different levels of emotional valence in relation to humans. This emotional information is reflected in the acoustic features of the calls. Our data suggest that humans can identify high-arousal calls of Aggressive and Unselected foxes, but not of Tame foxes. Further analyses revealed that, although within each strain different acoustic parameters affect human accuracy in identifying high-arousal calls, spectral center of gravity, harmonic-to-noise ratio, and F0 best predict humans' ability to discriminate high-arousal calls across all strains. Furthermore, we identified in spectral center of gravity and F0 the best predictors for humans' absolute ratings of arousal in each call. Implications for research on the adaptive value of inter-specific eavesdropping are discussed.

Administering Spatial and Cognitive Instruments In-class and On-line: Are These Equivalent?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Kenneth C.; Williamson, Vickie M.; Hinze, Scott R.

2017-02-01

Standardized, well-established paper-and-pencil tests, which measure spatial abilities or which measure reasoning abilities, have long been found to be predictive of success in the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields. Instructors can use these tests for prediction of success and to inform instruction. A comparative administration of spatial visualization and cognitive reasoning tests, between in-class (proctored paper and pencil) and on-line (unproctored Internet) ( N = 457), was used to investigate and to determine whether the differing instrument formats yielded equal measures of spatial ability and reasoning ability in large first-semester general chemistry sections. Although some gender differences were found, findings suggest that some differences across administration formats, but that on-line administration had similar properties of predicting chemistry performance as the in-class version. Therefore, on-line administration is a viable option for instructors to consider especially when dealing with large classes.

Predicting the Development of Analytical and Creative Abilities in Upper Elementary Grades

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gubbels, Joyce; Segers, Eliane; Verhoeven, Ludo

2017-01-01

In some models, intelligence has been described as a multidimensional construct comprising both analytical and creative abilities. In addition, intelligence is considered to be dynamic rather than static. A structural equation model was used to examine the predictive role of cognitive (visual short-term memory, verbal short-term memory, selective…

Development of Rationale and Measures of Noncognitive College Student Potential

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmitt, Neal

2012-01-01

In considering and evaluating approaches to the admission of college students, the usual approach is to try to measure past academic achievement and primarily verbal and math ability on the assumption that these abilities will predict subsequent college academic grades and achievement. These measures do predict classroom achievement, though far…

Calculation of genomic predicted transmitting abilities for bovine respiratory disease complex in Holsteins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bovine Respiratory Disease Complex is a disease that is very costly to the dairy industry. Genomic selection may be an effective tool to improve host resistance to the pathogens that cause this disease. Use of genomic predicted transmitting abilities (GPTA) for selection has had a dramatic effect on...

Comparing the predictive abilities of phenotypic and marker-assisted selection methods in a biparental lettuce population

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Breeding and selection for the traits with polygenic inheritance is a challenging task that can be done by phenotypic selection, by marker-assisted selection or by genome wide selection. We tested predictive ability of four selection models in a biparental population genotyped with 95 SNP markers an...

Administering Spatial and Cognitive Instruments In-Class and On-Line: Are These Equivalent?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williamson, Kenneth C.; Williamson, Vickie M.; Hinze, Scott R.

2017-01-01

Standardized, well-established paper-and-pencil tests, which measure spatial abilities or which measure reasoning abilities, have long been found to be predictive of success in the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields. Instructors can use these tests for prediction of success and to inform instruction. A comparative…

Short-Term Memory as an Additional Predictor of School Achievement for Immigrant Children?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

te Nijenhuis, Jan; Resing, Wilma; Tolboom, Elsbeth; Bleichrodt, Nico

2004-01-01

The predictive validity and utility of assessment procedures can be increased by adding predictors to the prediction supplied by general ability tests. Of Jensen's early work comes the suggestion of focusing on the cognitive ability short-term memory (STM), especially for low-"g" Black children. Meta-analysis convincingly shows high…

Bidirectional Relations of Phonological Sensitivity and Prereading Abilities: Evidence from a Preschool Sample.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgess, Stephen R.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

1998-01-01

Examined the relationship between phonological sensitivity and letter knowledge in 4- and 5-year-olds in a one-year longitudinal study. Found that phonological sensitivity predicted letter knowledge growth, and letter knowledge predicted phonological sensitivity growth, when controlling for age and oral language abilities. Also found that the…

Surface Management System Departure Event Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monroe, Gilena A.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a data analysis of the Surface Management System (SMS) performance of departure events, including push-back and runway departure events.The paper focuses on the detection performance, or the ability to detect departure events, as well as the prediction performance of SMS. The results detail a modest overall detection performance of push-back events and a significantly high overall detection performance of runway departure events. The overall detection performance of SMS for push-back events is approximately 55%.The overall detection performance of SMS for runway departure events nears 100%. This paper also presents the overall SMS prediction performance for runway departure events as well as the timeliness of the Aircraft Situation Display for Industry data source for SMS predictions.

The role of early language abilities on math skills among Chinese children.

PubMed

Zhang, Juan; Fan, Xitao; Cheung, Sum Kwing; Meng, Yaxuan; Cai, Zhihui; Hu, Bi Ying

2017-01-01

The present study investigated the role of early language abilities in the development of math skills among Chinese K-3 students. About 2000 children in China, who were on average aged 6 years, were assessed for both informal math (e.g., basic number concepts such as counting objects) and formal math (calculations including addition and subtraction) skills, language abilities and nonverbal intelligence. Correlation analysis showed that language abilities were more strongly associated with informal than formal math skills, and regression analyses revealed that children's language abilities could uniquely predict both informal and formal math skills with age, gender, and nonverbal intelligence controlled. Mediation analyses demonstrated that the relationship between children's language abilities and formal math skills was partially mediated by informal math skills. The current findings indicate 1) Children's language abilities are of strong predictive values for both informal and formal math skills; 2) Language abilities impacts formal math skills partially through the mediation of informal math skills.

The role of early language abilities on math skills among Chinese children

PubMed Central

Fan, Xitao; Cheung, Sum Kwing; Cai, Zhihui; Hu, Bi Ying

2017-01-01

Background The present study investigated the role of early language abilities in the development of math skills among Chinese K-3 students. About 2000 children in China, who were on average aged 6 years, were assessed for both informal math (e.g., basic number concepts such as counting objects) and formal math (calculations including addition and subtraction) skills, language abilities and nonverbal intelligence. Methodology Correlation analysis showed that language abilities were more strongly associated with informal than formal math skills, and regression analyses revealed that children’s language abilities could uniquely predict both informal and formal math skills with age, gender, and nonverbal intelligence controlled. Mediation analyses demonstrated that the relationship between children’s language abilities and formal math skills was partially mediated by informal math skills. Results The current findings indicate 1) Children’s language abilities are of strong predictive values for both informal and formal math skills; 2) Language abilities impacts formal math skills partially through the mediation of informal math skills. PMID:28749950

Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Wikle, C.K.

2005-01-01

We develop a spatial modeling framework for count data that is efficient to implement in high-dimensional prediction problems. We consider spectral parameterizations for the spatially varying mean of a Poisson model. The spectral parameterization of the spatial process is very computationally efficient, enabling effective estimation and prediction in large problems using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We apply this model to creating avian relative abundance maps from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Variation in the ability of observers to count birds is modeled as spatially independent noise, resulting in over-dispersion relative to the Poisson assumption. This approach represents an improvement over existing approaches used for spatial modeling of BBS data which are either inefficient for continental scale modeling and prediction or fail to accommodate important distributional features of count data thus leading to inaccurate accounting of prediction uncertainty.

Development and validation of a predictive model for excessive postpartum blood loss: A retrospective, cohort study.

PubMed

Rubio-Álvarez, Ana; Molina-Alarcón, Milagros; Arias-Arias, Ángel; Hernández-Martínez, Antonio

2018-03-01

postpartum haemorrhage is one of the leading causes of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Despite the use of uterotonics agents as preventive measure, it remains a challenge to identify those women who are at increased risk of postpartum bleeding. to develop and to validate a predictive model to assess the risk of excessive bleeding in women with vaginal birth. retrospective cohorts study. "Mancha-Centro Hospital" (Spain). the elaboration of the predictive model was based on a derivation cohort consisting of 2336 women between 2009 and 2011. For validation purposes, a prospective cohort of 953 women between 2013 and 2014 were employed. Women with antenatal fetal demise, multiple pregnancies and gestations under 35 weeks were excluded METHODS: we used a multivariate analysis with binary logistic regression, Ridge Regression and areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to determine the predictive ability of the proposed model. there was 197 (8.43%) women with excessive bleeding in the derivation cohort and 63 (6.61%) women in the validation cohort. Predictive factors in the final model were: maternal age, primiparity, duration of the first and second stages of labour, neonatal birth weight and antepartum haemoglobin levels. Accordingly, the predictive ability of this model in the derivation cohort was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93), while it remained 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92) in the validation cohort. this predictive model is proved to have an excellent predictive ability in the derivation cohort, and its validation in a latter population equally shows a good ability for prediction. This model can be employed to identify women with a higher risk of postpartum haemorrhage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive performance predicts treatment decisional abilities in mild to moderate dementia.

PubMed

Gurrera, R J; Moye, J; Karel, M J; Azar, A R; Armesto, J C

2006-05-09

To examine the contribution of neuropsychological test performance to treatment decision-making capacity in community volunteers with mild to moderate dementia. The authors recruited volunteers (44 men, 44 women) with mild to moderate dementia from the community. Subjects completed a battery of 11 neuropsychological tests that assessed auditory and visual attention, logical memory, language, and executive function. To measure decision making capacity, the authors administered the Capacity to Consent to Treatment Interview, the Hopemont Capacity Assessment Interview, and the MacCarthur Competence Assessment Tool--Treatment. Each of these instruments individually scores four decisional abilities serving capacity: understanding, appreciation, reasoning, and expression of choice. The authors used principal components analysis to generate component scores for each ability across instruments, and to extract principal components for neuropsychological performance. Multiple linear regression analyses demonstrated that neuropsychological performance significantly predicted all four abilities. Specifically, it predicted 77.8% of the common variance for understanding, 39.4% for reasoning, 24.6% for appreciation, and 10.2% for expression of choice. Except for reasoning and appreciation, neuropsychological predictor (beta) profiles were unique for each ability. Neuropsychological performance substantially and differentially predicted capacity for treatment decisions in individuals with mild to moderate dementia. Relationships between elemental cognitive function and decisional capacity may differ in individuals whose decisional capacity is impaired by other disorders, such as mental illness.

Controlling of water collection ability by an elasticity-regulated bioinspired fiber.

PubMed

Wang, Sijie; Feng, Shile; Hou, Yongping; Zheng, Yongmei

2015-03-01

A special artificial spider silk is presented which is fabricated by using both an elastic polymer and a fiber, and the water collection behavior is investigated. Through exerting tension in varying degree, the length of the three-phase contact line (TCL) and the area of spindle knot can be regulated readily, which makes a great contribution to the improvement of collecting efficiency and water-hanging ability. The water-hanging ability can be predicted at a given stretching ratio according to the given expression of the TCL. As a result, liquid capture or release of distinct measure can be achieved via exerting tension. This research is helpful to design smart materials for developing applications in fogwater collection, dehumidification, high-efficiency humidity control, and controllable adhesion. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A comprehensive test of evolutionarily increased competitive ability in a highly invasive plant species

PubMed Central

Joshi, Srijana; Gruntman, Michal; Bilton, Mark; Seifan, Merav; Tielbörger, Katja

2014-01-01

Background and Aims A common hypothesis to explain plants' invasive success is that release from natural enemies in the introduced range selects for reduced allocation to resistance traits and a subsequent increase in resources available for growth and competitive ability (evolution of increased competitive ability, EICA). However, studies that have investigated this hypothesis have been incomplete as they either did not test for all aspects of competitive ability or did not select appropriate competitors. Methods Here, the prediction of increased competitive ability was examined with the invasive plant Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) in a set of common-garden experiments that addressed these aspects by carefully distinguishing between competitive effect and response of invasive and native plants, and by using both intraspecific and interspecific competition settings with a highly vigorous neighbour, Urtica dioica (stinging nettle), which occurs in both ranges. Key Results While the intraspecific competition results showed no differences in competitive effect or response between native and invasive plants, the interspecific competition experiment revealed greater competitive response and effect of invasive plants in both biomass and seed production. Conclusions The use of both intra- and interspecific competition experiments in this study revealed opposing results. While the first experiment refutes the EICA hypothesis, the second shows strong support for it, suggesting evolutionarily increased competitive ability in invasive populations of L. salicaria. It is suggested that the use of naturally co-occurring heterospecifics, rather than conspecifics, may provide a better evaluation of the possible evolutionary shift towards greater competitive ability. PMID:25301818

The cognitive bases of the development of past and future episodic cognition in preschoolers.

PubMed

Ünal, Gülten; Hohenberger, Annette

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to use a minimalist framework to examine the joint development of past and future episodic cognition and their underlying cognitive abilities in 3- to 5-year-old Turkish preschoolers. Participants engaged in two main tasks, a what-where-when (www) task to measure episodic memory and a future prediction task to measure episodic future thinking. Three additional tasks were used for predicting children's performance in the two main tasks: a temporal language task, an executive function task, and a spatial working memory task. Results indicated that past and future episodic tasks were significantly correlated with each other even after controlling for age. Hierarchical multiple regressions showed that, after controlling for age, the www task was predicted by executive functions, possibly supporting binding of episodic information and by linguistic abilities. The future prediction task was predicted by linguistic abilities alone, underlining the importance of language for episodic past and future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the predictive ability of mechanistic models for the Haitian cholera epidemic.

PubMed

Mari, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Finger, Flavio; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2015-03-06

Predictive models of epidemic cholera need to resolve at suitable aggregation levels spatial data pertaining to local communities, epidemiological records, hydrologic drivers, waterways, patterns of human mobility and proxies of exposure rates. We address the above issue in a formal model comparison framework and provide a quantitative assessment of the explanatory and predictive abilities of various model settings with different spatial aggregation levels and coupling mechanisms. Reference is made to records of the recent Haiti cholera epidemics. Our intensive computations and objective model comparisons show that spatially explicit models accounting for spatial connections have better explanatory power than spatially disconnected ones for short-to-intermediate calibration windows, while parsimonious, spatially disconnected models perform better with long training sets. On average, spatially connected models show better predictive ability than disconnected ones. We suggest limits and validity of the various approaches and discuss the pathway towards the development of case-specific predictive tools in the context of emergency management. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Collective action and the collaborative brain

PubMed Central

Gavrilets, Sergey

2015-01-01

Humans are unique both in their cognitive abilities and in the extent of cooperation in large groups of unrelated individuals. How our species evolved high intelligence in spite of various costs of having a large brain is perplexing. Equally puzzling is how our ancestors managed to overcome the collective action problem and evolve strong innate preferences for cooperative behaviour. Here, I theoretically study the evolution of social-cognitive competencies as driven by selection emerging from the need to produce public goods in games against nature or in direct competition with other groups. I use collaborative ability in collective actions as a proxy for social-cognitive competencies. My results suggest that collaborative ability is more likely to evolve first by between-group conflicts and then later be utilized and improved in games against nature. If collaborative abilities remain low, the species is predicted to become genetically dimorphic with a small proportion of individuals contributing to public goods and the rest free-riding. Evolution of collaborative ability creates conditions for the subsequent evolution of collaborative communication and cultural learning. PMID:25551149

What is the Ability Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT) good for? An evaluation using item response theory.

PubMed

Fiori, Marina; Antonietti, Jean-Philippe; Mikolajczak, Moira; Luminet, Olivier; Hansenne, Michel; Rossier, Jérôme

2014-01-01

The ability approach has been indicated as promising for advancing research in emotional intelligence (EI). However, there is scarcity of tests measuring EI as a form of intelligence. The Mayer Salovey Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, or MSCEIT, is among the few available and the most widespread measure of EI as an ability. This implies that conclusions about the value of EI as a meaningful construct and about its utility in predicting various outcomes mainly rely on the properties of this test. We tested whether individuals who have the highest probability of choosing the most correct response on any item of the test are also those who have the strongest EI ability. Results showed that this is not the case for most items: The answer indicated by experts as the most correct in several cases was not associated with the highest ability; furthermore, items appeared too easy to challenge individuals high in EI. Overall results suggest that the MSCEIT is best suited to discriminate persons at the low end of the trait. Results are discussed in light of applied and theoretical considerations.

Quantifying data worth toward reducing predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dausman, A.M.; Doherty, J.; Langevin, C.D.; Sukop, M.C.

2010-01-01

The present study demonstrates a methodology for optimization of environmental data acquisition. Based on the premise that the worth of data increases in proportion to its ability to reduce the uncertainty of key model predictions, the methodology can be used to compare the worth of different data types, gathered at different locations within study areas of arbitrary complexity. The method is applied to a hypothetical nonlinear, variable density numerical model of salt and heat transport. The relative utilities of temperature and concentration measurements at different locations within the model domain are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with predictions of movement of the salt water interface in response to a decrease in fresh water recharge. In order to test the sensitivity of the method to nonlinear model behavior, analyses were repeated for multiple realizations of system properties. Rankings of observation worth were similar for all realizations, indicating robust performance of the methodology when employed in conjunction with a highly nonlinear model. The analysis showed that while concentration and temperature measurements can both aid in the prediction of interface movement, concentration measurements, especially when taken in proximity to the interface at locations where the interface is expected to move, are of greater worth than temperature measurements. Nevertheless, it was also demonstrated that pairs of temperature measurements, taken in strategic locations with respect to the interface, can also lead to more precise predictions of interface movement. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Schooling as a Lottery: Racial Differences in School Advancement in Urban South Africa†

PubMed Central

Lam, David; Ardington, Cally; Leibbrandt, Murray

2010-01-01

This paper analyzes the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa. Using recently collected longitudinal data we find that grade advancement is strongly associated with scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. In grades 8-11 the effect of these scores on grade progression is much stronger for white and coloured students than for African students, while there is no racial difference in the impact of the scores on passing the nationally standardized grade 12 matriculation exam. We develop a stochastic model of grade repetition that generates predictions consistent with these results. The model predicts that a larger stochastic component in the link between learning and measured performance will generate higher enrollment, higher failure rates, and a weaker link between ability and grade progression. The results suggest that grade progression in African schools is poorly linked to actual ability and learning. The results point to the importance of considering the stochastic component of grade repetition in analyzing school systems with high failure rates. PMID:21499515

Development and Psychometric Properties of the Standardized Assessment of Severity of Personality Disorder (SASPD).

PubMed

Olajide, Kike; Munjiza, Jasna; Moran, Paul; O'Connell, Lesley; Newton-Howes, Giles; Bassett, Paul; Akintomide, Gbolagade; Ng, Nicola; Tyrer, Peter; Mulder, Roger; Crawford, Mike J

2018-02-01

Personality disorder (PD) is increasingly categorized according to its severity, but there is no simple way to screen for severity according to ICD-11 criteria. We set out to develop the Standardized Assessment of Severity of Personality Disorder (SASPD). A total of 110 patients completed the SASPD together with a clinical assessment of the severity of personality disorder. We examined the predictive ability of the SASPD using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Two to four weeks later, 43 patients repeated the SASPD to examine reliability. The SASPD had good predictive ability for determining mild (AUC = 0.86) and moderate (AUC = 0.84) PD at cut points of 8 and 10, respectively. Test-retest reliability of the SASPD was high (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.93, 95% CI [0.88, 0.96]). The SASPD thus provides a simple, brief, and reliable indicator of the presence of mild or moderate PD according to ICD-11 criteria.

Predicting successful tactile mapping of virtual objects.

PubMed

Brayda, Luca; Campus, Claudio; Gori, Monica

2013-01-01

Improving spatial ability of blind and visually impaired people is the main target of orientation and mobility (O&M) programs. In this study, we use a minimalistic mouse-shaped haptic device to show a new approach aimed at evaluating devices providing tactile representations of virtual objects. We consider psychophysical, behavioral, and subjective parameters to clarify under which circumstances mental representations of spaces (cognitive maps) can be efficiently constructed with touch by blindfolded sighted subjects. We study two complementary processes that determine map construction: low-level perception (in a passive stimulation task) and high-level information integration (in an active exploration task). We show that jointly considering a behavioral measure of information acquisition and a subjective measure of cognitive load can give an accurate prediction and a practical interpretation of mapping performance. Our simple TActile MOuse (TAMO) uses haptics to assess spatial ability: this may help individuals who are blind or visually impaired to be better evaluated by O&M practitioners or to evaluate their own performance.

Optimization of the Processing Parameters of High Temperature Superconducting Glass-Ceramics: Center Director's Discretionary Fund Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ethridge, E. C.; Kaukler, W. F.

1993-01-01

A number of promising glass forming compositions of high Tc superconducting Ba-Sr-Ca-Cu-O (BSCCO) materials were evaluated for their glass-ceramic crystallization ability. The BSCCO ceramics belonging to the class of superconductors in the Ba-Sr-Ca-Cu-O system were the focus of this study. By first forming the superconducting material as a glass, subsequent devitrification into the crystalline (glass-ceramic) superconductor can be performed by thermal processing of the glass preform body. Glass formability and phase formation were determined by a variety of methods in another related study. This study focused on the nucleation and crystallization of the materials. Thermal analysis during rapid cooling aids in the evaluation of nucleation and crystallization behavior. Melt viscosity is used to predict glass formation ability.

[Establishment of the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease of elderly male population under current health care program].

PubMed

Chen, Jin-hong; Wu, Hai-yun; He, Kun-lun; He, Yao; Qin, Yin-he

2010-10-01

To establish and verify the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) among the elderly population who were under the current health care programs. Statistical analysis on data from physical examination, hospitalization of the past years, from questionnaire and telephone interview was carried out in May, 2003. Data was from a hospital which implementing a health care program. Baseline population with a proportion of 4:1 was randomly selected to generate both module group and verification group. Baseline data was induced to make the verification group into regression model of module group and to generate the predictive value. Distinguished ability with area under ROC curve and the predictive veracity were verified through comparing the predictive incidence rate and actual incidence rate of every deciles group by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Predictive veracity of the prediction model at population level was verified through comparing the predictive 6-year incidence rates of ICVD with actual 6-year accumulative incidence rates of ICVD with error rate calculated. The samples included 2271 males over the age of 65 with 1817 people for modeling population and 454 for verified population. All of the samples were stratified into two layers to establish hierarchical Cox proportional hazard regression model, including one advanced age group (greater than or equal to 75 years old), and another elderly group (less than 75 years old). Data from the statically analysis showed that the risk factors in aged group were age, systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was high density lipoprotein;in advanced age group, the risk factors were body weight index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol level, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95%CI were 0.723 and 0.687 - 0.759 respectively. Discriminating power was good. All individual predictive ICVD cumulative incidence and actual incidence were analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ(2) = 1.43, P = 0.786, showing that the predictive veracity was good. The stratified Cox Hazards Regression model was used to establish prediction model of the aged male population under a certain health care program. The common prediction factor of the two age groups were: systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level and HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve of the verification group was 0.723, showing that the distinguished ability was good and the predict ability at the individual level and at the group level were also satisfactory. It was feasible to using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for predicting the population groups.

VWPS: A Ventilator Weaning Prediction System with Artificial Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Austin H.; Chen, Guan-Ting

How to wean patients efficiently off mechanical ventilation continues to be a challenge for medical professionals. In this paper we have described a novel approach to the study of a ventilator weaning prediction system (VWPS). Firstly, we have developed and written three Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithms to predict a weaning successful rate based on the clinical data. Secondly, we have implemented two user-friendly weaning success rate prediction systems; the VWPS system and the BWAP system. Both systems could be used to help doctors objectively and effectively predict whether weaning is appropriate for patients based on the patients' clinical data. Our system utilizes the powerful processing abilities of MatLab. Thirdly, we have calculated the performance through measures such as sensitivity and accuracy for these three algorithms. The results show a very high sensitivity (around 80%) and accuracy (around 70%). To our knowledge, this is the first design approach of its kind to be used in the study of ventilator weaning success rate prediction.

Evaluating the ability of artificial neural network and PCA-M5P models in predicting leachate COD load in landfills.

PubMed

Azadi, Sama; Amiri, Hamid; Rakhshandehroo, G Reza

2016-09-01

Waste burial in uncontrolled landfills can cause serious environmental damages and unpleasant consequences. Leachates produced in landfills have the potential to contaminate soil and groundwater resources. Leachate management is one of the major issues with respect to landfills environmental impacts. Improper design of landfills can lead to leachate spread in the environment, and hence, engineered landfills are required to have leachate monitoring programs. The high cost of such programs may be greatly reduced and cost efficiency of the program may be optimized if one can predict leachate contamination level and foresee management and treatment strategies. The aim of this study is to develop two expert systems consisting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Principal Component Analysis-M5P (PCA-M5P) models to predict Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) load in leachates produced in lab-scale landfills. Measured data from three landfill lysimeters, including rainfall depth, number of days after waste deposition, thickness of top and bottom Compacted Clay Liners (CCLs), and thickness of top cover over the lysimeter, were utilized to develop, train, validate, and test the expert systems and predict the leachate COD load. Statistical analysis of the prediction results showed that both models possess good prediction ability with a slight superiority for ANN over PCA-M5P. Based on test datasets, the mean absolute percentage error for ANN and PCA-M5P models were 4% and 12%, respectively, and the correlation coefficient for both models was greater than 0.98. Developed models may be used as a rough estimate for leachate COD load prediction in primary landfill designs, where the effect of a top and/or bottom liner is disputed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can multi-subpopulation reference sets improve the genomic predictive ability for pigs?

PubMed

Fangmann, A; Bergfelder-Drüing, S; Tholen, E; Simianer, H; Erbe, M

2015-12-01

In most countries and for most livestock species, genomic evaluations are obtained from within-breed analyses. To achieve reliable breeding values, however, a sufficient reference sample size is essential. To increase this size, the use of multibreed reference populations for small populations is considered a suitable option in other species. Over decades, the separate breeding work of different pig breeding organizations in Germany has led to stratified subpopulations in the breed German Large White. Due to this fact and the limited number of Large White animals available in each organization, there was a pressing need for ascertaining if multi-subpopulation genomic prediction is superior compared with within-subpopulation prediction in pigs. Direct genomic breeding values were estimated with genomic BLUP for the trait "number of piglets born alive" using genotype data (Illumina Porcine 60K SNP BeadChip) from 2,053 German Large White animals from five different commercial pig breeding companies. To assess the prediction accuracy of within- and multi-subpopulation reference sets, a random 5-fold cross-validation with 20 replications was performed. The five subpopulations considered were only slightly differentiated from each other. However, the prediction accuracy of the multi-subpopulations approach was not better than that of the within-subpopulation evaluation, for which the predictive ability was already high. Reference sets composed of closely related multi-subpopulation sets performed better than sets of distantly related subpopulations but not better than the within-subpopulation approach. Despite the low differentiation of the five subpopulations, the genetic connectedness between these different subpopulations seems to be too small to improve the prediction accuracy by applying multi-subpopulation reference sets. Consequently, resources should be used for enlarging the reference population within subpopulation, for example, by adding genotyped females.

Usefulness of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging to predict the need for intervention in patients with coarctation of the aorta.

PubMed

Muzzarelli, Stefano; Meadows, Alison Knauth; Ordovas, Karen Gomes; Higgins, Charles Bernard; Meadows, Jeffery Joshua

2012-03-15

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging can predict hemodynamically significant coarctation of the aorta (CoA) with a high degree of discrimination. However, the ability of CMR to predict important clinical outcomes in this patient population is unknown. Therefore, we sought to define the ability of CMR to predict the need for surgical or transcatheter intervention in patients with CoA. We retrospectively reviewed the data from 133 consecutive patients who had undergone CMR for the evaluation of known or suspected CoA. The characteristics of the CMR-derived variables predicting the need for surgical or transcatheter intervention for CoA within 1 year were determined through logistic regression analysis. Therapeutic aortic intervention was performed in 41 (31%) of the 133 patients during the study period. The indexed minimum aortic cross-sectional area was the strongest predictor of subsequent intervention (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.975) followed by heart rate-corrected deceleration time in the descending aorta (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.951), and the percentage of flow increase (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.867). The combination of the indexed minimum aortic cross-sectional area and rate-corrected deceleration time in the descending aorta provided the best predictive model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.986). In conclusion, CMR findings can predict the need for subsequent intervention in CoA. These findings reinforce the "gate-keeper role" of CMR to cardiac catheterization by providing valuable diagnostic and powerful prognostic information and could guide additional treatment of patients with CoA with the final intent of reducing the number of diagnostic catheterizations in such patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Rebound from marital conflict and divorce prediction.

PubMed

Gottman, J M; Levenson, R W

1999-01-01

Marital interaction has primarily been examined in the context of conflict resolution. This study investigated the predictive ability of couples to rebound from marital conflict in a subsequent positive conversation. Results showed that there was a great deal of consistency in affect across both conversations. Also examined was the ability of affective interaction to predict divorce over a 4-year period, separately in each of the two conversations. It was possible to predict divorce using affective variables from each conversation, with 82.6% accuracy from the conflict conversation and with 92.7% accuracy from the positive rebound conversation.

Predicting Financial Distress and Closure in Rural Hospitals.

PubMed

Holmes, George M; Kaufman, Brystana G; Pink, George H

2017-06-01

Annual rates of rural hospital closure have been increasing since 2010, and hospitals that close have poor financial performance relative to those that remain open. This study develops and validates a latent index of financial distress to forecast the probability of financial distress and closure within 2 years for rural hospitals. Hospital and community characteristics are used to predict the risk of financial distress 2 years in the future. Financial and community data were drawn for 2,466 rural hospitals from 2000 through 2013. We tested and validated a model predicting a latent index of financial distress (FDI), measured by unprofitability, equity decline, insolvency, and closure. Using the predicted FDI score, hospitals are assigned to high, medium-high, medium-low, and low risk of financial distress for use by practitioners. The FDI forecasts 8.01% of rural hospitals to be at high risk of financial distress in 2015, 16.3% as mid-high, 46.8% as mid-low, and 28.9% as low risk. The rate of closure for hospitals in the high-risk category is 4 times the rate in the mid-high category and 28 times that in the mid-low category. The ability of the FDI to discriminate hospitals experiencing financial distress is supported by a c-statistic of .74 in a validation sample. This methodology offers improved specificity and predictive power relative to existing measures of financial distress applied to rural hospitals. This risk assessment tool may inform programs at the federal, state, and local levels that provide funding or support to rural hospitals. © 2016 National Rural Health Association.

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

How Spatial Abilities Enhance, and Are Enhanced by, Dental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hegarty, Mary; Keehner, Madeleine; Khooshabeh, Peter; Montello, Daniel R.

2009-01-01

In two studies with a total of 324 participants, dentistry students were assessed on psychometric measures of spatial ability, reasoning ability, and on new measures of the ability to infer the appearance of a cross-section of a three-dimensional (3-D) object. We examined how these abilities and skills predict success in dental education programs,…

Single Trial EEG Patterns for the Prediction of Individual Differences in Fluid Intelligence.

PubMed

Qazi, Emad-Ul-Haq; Hussain, Muhammad; Aboalsamh, Hatim; Malik, Aamir Saeed; Amin, Hafeez Ullah; Bamatraf, Saeed

2016-01-01

Assessing a person's intelligence level is required in many situations, such as career counseling and clinical applications. EEG evoked potentials in oddball task and fluid intelligence score are correlated because both reflect the cognitive processing and attention. A system for prediction of an individual's fluid intelligence level using single trial Electroencephalography (EEG) signals has been proposed. For this purpose, we employed 2D and 3D contents and 34 subjects each for 2D and 3D, which were divided into low-ability (LA) and high-ability (HA) groups using Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (RAPM) test. Using visual oddball cognitive task, neural activity of each group was measured and analyzed over three midline electrodes (Fz, Cz, and Pz). To predict whether an individual belongs to LA or HA group, features were extracted using wavelet decomposition of EEG signals recorded in visual oddball task and support vector machine (SVM) was used as a classifier. Two different types of Haar wavelet transform based features have been extracted from the band (0.3 to 30 Hz) of EEG signals. Statistical wavelet features and wavelet coefficient features from the frequency bands 0.0-1.875 Hz (delta low) and 1.875-3.75 Hz (delta high), resulted in the 100 and 98% prediction accuracies, respectively, both for 2D and 3D contents. The analysis of these frequency bands showed clear difference between LA and HA groups. Further, discriminative values of the features have been validated using statistical significance tests and inter-class and intra-class variation analysis. Also, statistical test showed that there was no effect of 2D and 3D content on the assessment of fluid intelligence level. Comparisons with state-of-the-art techniques showed the superiority of the proposed system.

Predictive rhythmic tapping to isochronous and tempo changing metronomes in the nonhuman primate.

PubMed

Gámez, Jorge; Yc, Karyna; Ayala, Yaneri A; Dotov, Dobromir; Prado, Luis; Merchant, Hugo

2018-04-30

Beat entrainment is the ability to entrain one's movements to a perceived periodic stimulus, such as a metronome or a pulse in music. Humans have a capacity to predictively respond to a periodic pulse and to dynamically adjust their movement timing to match the varying music tempos. Previous studies have shown that monkeys share some of the human capabilities for rhythmic entrainment, such as tapping regularly at the period of isochronous stimuli. However, it is still unknown whether monkeys can predictively entrain to dynamic tempo changes like humans. To address this question, we trained monkeys in three tapping tasks and compared their rhythmic entrainment abilities with those of humans. We found that, when immediate feedback about the timing of each movement is provided, monkeys can predictively entrain to an isochronous beat, generating tapping movements in anticipation of the metronome pulse. This ability also generalized to a novel untrained tempo. Notably, macaques can modify their tapping tempo by predicting the beat changes of accelerating and decelerating visual metronomes in a manner similar to humans. Our findings support the notion that nonhuman primates share with humans the ability of temporal anticipation during tapping to isochronous and smoothly changing sequences of stimuli. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.