Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice.

PubMed

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test's attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Predictive Values: Foundations, Pliabilities, and Pitfalls in Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Trevethan, Robert

2017-01-01

Within the context of screening tests, it is important to avoid misconceptions about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this article, therefore, foundations are first established concerning these metrics along with the first of several aspects of pliability that should be recognized in relation to those metrics. Clarification is then provided about the definitions of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values and why researchers and clinicians can misunderstand and misrepresent them. Arguments are made that sensitivity and specificity should usually be applied only in the context of describing a screening test’s attributes relative to a reference standard; that predictive values are more appropriate and informative in actual screening contexts, but that sensitivity and specificity can be used for screening decisions about individual people if they are extremely high; that predictive values need not always be high and might be used to advantage by adjusting the sensitivity and specificity of screening tests; that, in screening contexts, researchers should provide information about all four metrics and how they were derived; and that, where necessary, consumers of health research should have the skills to interpret those metrics effectively for maximum benefit to clients and the healthcare system. PMID:29209603

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

PubMed

Sadique, Z; Grieve, R; Harrison, D A; Jit, M; Allen, E; Rowan, K M

2013-12-01

This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Genomic selection in plant breeding

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genomic selection (GS) is a method to predict the genetic value of selection candidates based on the genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) predicted from high-density markers positioned throughout the genome. Unlike marker-assisted selection, the GEBV is based on all markers including both minor ...

Predicting High Imaging Utilization Based on Initial Radiology Reports: A Feasibility Study of Machine Learning.

PubMed

Hassanpour, Saeed; Langlotz, Curtis P

2016-01-01

Imaging utilization has significantly increased over the last two decades, and is only recently showing signs of moderating. To help healthcare providers identify patients at risk for high imaging utilization, we developed a prediction model to recognize high imaging utilizers based on their initial imaging reports. The prediction model uses a machine learning text classification framework. In this study, we used radiology reports from 18,384 patients with at least one abdomen computed tomography study in their imaging record at Stanford Health Care as the training set. We modeled the radiology reports in a vector space and trained a support vector machine classifier for this prediction task. We evaluated our model on a separate test set of 4791 patients. In addition to high prediction accuracy, in our method, we aimed at achieving high specificity to identify patients at high risk for high imaging utilization. Our results (accuracy: 94.0%, sensitivity: 74.4%, specificity: 97.9%, positive predictive value: 87.3%, negative predictive value: 95.1%) show that a prediction model can enable healthcare providers to identify in advance patients who are likely to be high utilizers of imaging services. Machine learning classifiers developed from narrative radiology reports are feasible methods to predict imaging utilization. Such systems can be used to identify high utilizers, inform future image ordering behavior, and encourage judicious use of imaging. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cross-national validation of prognostic models predicting sickness absence and the added value of work environment variables.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Stapelfeldt, Christina M; Heymans, Martijn W; van Rhenen, Willem; Labriola, Merete; Nielsen, Claus V; Bültmann, Ute; Jensen, Chris

2015-06-01

To validate Dutch prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) for ability to predict high SA in Danish eldercare. The added value of work environment variables to the models' risk discrimination was also investigated. 2,562 municipal eldercare workers (95% women) participated in the Working in Eldercare Survey. Predictor variables were measured by questionnaire at baseline in 2005. Prognostic models were validated for predictions of high (≥30) SA days and high (≥3) SA episodes retrieved from employer records during 1-year follow-up. The accuracy of predictions was assessed by calibration graphs and the ability of the models to discriminate between high- and low-risk workers was investigated by ROC-analysis. The added value of work environment variables was measured with Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). 1,930 workers had complete data for analysis. The models underestimated the risk of high SA in eldercare workers and the SA episodes model had to be re-calibrated to the Danish data. Discrimination was practically useful for the re-calibrated SA episodes model, but not the SA days model. Physical workload improved the SA days model (IDI = 0.40; 95% CI 0.19-0.60) and psychosocial work factors, particularly the quality of leadership (IDI = 0.70; 95% CI 053-0.86) improved the SA episodes model. The prognostic model predicting high SA days showed poor performance even after physical workload was added. The prognostic model predicting high SA episodes could be used to identify high-risk workers, especially when psychosocial work factors are added as predictor variables.

Prediction of air temperature for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianhua

2008-11-01

Six models for determining air temperatures for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags were reviewed. These models were based on distinctive metabolic rates and mean skin temperatures. All model predictions of air temperatures are low when the insulation values of the sleeping bag are high. Nevertheless, prediction variations are greatest for the sleeping bags with high insulation values, and there is a high risk of hypothermia if an inappropriate sleeping bag is chosen for the intended conditions of use. There is, therefore, a pressing need to validate the models by wear trial and determine which one best reflects ordinary consumer needs.

Prediction of air temperature for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags: a review.

PubMed

Huang, Jianhua

2008-11-01

Six models for determining air temperatures for thermal comfort of people using sleeping bags were reviewed. These models were based on distinctive metabolic rates and mean skin temperatures. All model predictions of air temperatures are low when the insulation values of the sleeping bag are high. Nevertheless, prediction variations are greatest for the sleeping bags with high insulation values, and there is a high risk of hypothermia if an inappropriate sleeping bag is chosen for the intended conditions of use. There is, therefore, a pressing need to validate the models by wear trial and determine which one best reflects ordinary consumer needs.

Highly ionized atoms in cooling gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edgar, R. J.; Chevalier, R. A.

1986-01-01

The ionization of low density gas cooling from a high temperature was calculated. The evolution during the cooling is assumed to be isochoric, isobaric, or a combination of these cases. The calculations are used to predict the column densities and ultraviolet line luminosities of highly ionized atoms in cooling gas. In a model for cooling of a hot galactic corona, it is shown that the observed value of N(N V) can be produced in the cooling gas, while the predicted value of N(Si IV) falls short of the observed value by a factor of about 5. The same model predicts fluxes of ultraviolet emission lines that are a factor of 10 lower than the claimed detections of Feldman, Brune, and Henry. Predictions are made for ultraviolet lines in cooling flows in early-type galaxies and clusters of galaxies. It is shown that the column densities of interest vary over a fairly narrow range, while the emission line luminosities are simply proportional to the mass inflow rate.

Highly ionized atoms in cooling gas. [in model for cooling of hot Galactic corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edgar, Richard J.; Chevalier, Roger A.

1986-01-01

The ionization of low density gas cooling from a high temperature was calculated. The evolution during the cooling is assumed to be isochoric, isobaric, or a combination of these cases. The calculations are used to predict the column densities and ultraviolet line luminosities of highly ionized atoms in cooling gas. In a model for cooling of a hot galactic corona, it is shown that the observed value of N(N V) can be produced in the cooling gas, while the predicted value of N(Si IV) falls short of the observed value by a factor of about 5. The same model predicts fluxes of ultraviolet emission lines that are a factor of 10 lower than the claimed detections of Feldman, Bruna, and Henry. Predictions are made for ultraviolet lines in cooling flows in early-type galaxies and clusters of galaxies. It is shown that the column densities of interest vary over a fairly narrow range, while the emission line luminosities are simply proportional to the mass inflow rate.

Performance Characteristics of the Cepheid Xpert vanA Assay for Rapid Identification of Patients at High Risk for Carriage of Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci

PubMed Central

Gilhuley, Kathleen; Cianciminio-Bordelon, Diane; Tang, Yi-Wei

2012-01-01

We compared the performance characteristics of culture and the Cepheid Xpert vanA assay for routine surveillance of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) from rectal swabs in patients at high risk for VRE carriage. The Cepheid Xpert vanA assay had a limit of detection of 100 CFU/ml and correctly detected 101 well-characterized clinical VRE isolates with no cross-reactivity in 27 non-VRE and related culture isolates. The clinical sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the Xpert vanA PCR assay were 100%, 96.9%, 91.3%, and 100%, respectively, when tested on 300 consecutively collected rectal swabs. This assay provides excellent predictive values for prompt identification of VRE-colonized patients in hospitals with relatively high rates of VRE carriage. PMID:22972822

Can blood and semen presepsin levels in males predict pregnancy in couples undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection?

PubMed

Ovayolu, Ali; Arslanbuğa, Cansev Yilmaz; Gun, Ismet; Devranoglu, Belgin; Ozdemir, Arman; Cakar, Sule Eren

2016-01-01

To determine whether semen and plasma presepsin values measured in men with normozoospermia and oligoasthenospermia undergoing invitro-fertilization would be helpful in predicting ongoing pregnancy and live birth. Group-I was defined as patients who had pregnancy after treatment and Group-II comprised those with no pregnancy. Semen and blood presepsin values were subsequently compared between the groups. Parametric comparisons were performed using Student's t-test, and non-parametric comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. There were 42 patients in Group-I and 72 in Group-II. In the context of successful pregnancy and live birth, semen presepsin values were statistically significantly higher in Group-I than in Group-II (p= 0.004 and p= 0.037, respectively). The most appropriate semen presepsin cut-off value for predicting both ongoing pregnancy and live birth was calculated as 199 pg/mL. Accordingly, their sensitivity was 64.5% to 59.3%, their specificity was 57.0% to 54.2%, and their positive predictive value was 37.0% to 29.6%, respectively; their negative predictive value was 80.4% in both instances. Semen presepsin values could be a new marker that may enable the prediction of successful pregnancy and/or live birth. Its negative predictive values are especially high.

Predict value of adiponectin for coronary atherosclerosis plaques according to computed tomography angiography in an asymptomatic population.

PubMed

Gan, Lu; Yang, Li; Yan, Guangtao

2018-05-25

The association between serum adiponectin levels and coronary atherosclerosis plaque characteristics in asymptomatic populations is unclear. To examine the predictive value of serum adiponectin levels for coronary high risk plaques as detected by computed tomography angiography (CTA). This was a cross-sectional study. All patients were divided into high risk plaque group and non high risk plaque group. The FRS was calculated for each patient. CTA was performed for each patient. Adiponectin levels were measured by flow fluorescence immunmicrobead assay (FFIA). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate analysis was used to determine the predictive value of adiponectin for high risk plaques. The high risk plaque group showed lower adiponectin levels than non high risk plaque group (median, 7.27 vs. 8.51 μg/ml, P = 0.003). The multivariate analysis showed that age (OR = 2.62, 95%CI: 1.51-4.56, P = 0.001), hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.89, 95%CI: 1.07-3.36, P = 0.029), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.24-0.87, P = 0.02), the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoproteincholesterol (TC/HDL-C) (OR = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.50-0.94, P = 0.02), apolipoprotein B (apoB) (OR = 3.08, 95%CI: 1.50-6.32, P = 0.002), and adiponectin (OR = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.19-0.74, P = 0.005) were independently associated with the presence of high risk plaques. AUC of the multivariate model for high-risk plaques was 0.728 (95%CI: 0.627-0.783). Sensitivity was 74.9%, specificity was 60.2%, the positive predictive value was 65.3%, and the negative predictive value was 70.6%. Decreased adiponectin levels were associated with the presence of high-risk plaques in asymptomatic populations at low to intermediate FRS. Adiponectin can play an important role in plaque screening before coronary CTA. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Positive predictive value of infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry: a validation study.

PubMed

Østergaard, Lauge; Adelborg, Kasper; Sundbøll, Jens; Pedersen, Lars; Loldrup Fosbøl, Emil; Schmidt, Morten

2018-05-30

The positive predictive value of an infective endocarditis diagnosis is approximately 80% in the Danish National Patient Registry. However, since infective endocarditis is a heterogeneous disease implying long-term intravenous treatment, we hypothesiszed that the positive predictive value varies by length of hospital stay. A total of 100 patients with first-time infective endocarditis in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified from January 2010 - December 2012 at the University hospital of Aarhus and regional hospitals of Herning and Randers. Medical records were reviewed. We calculated the positive predictive value according to admission length, and separately for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and a prosthetic heart valve using the Wilson score method. Among the 92 medical records available for review, the majority of the patients had admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value increased with length of admission. In patients with admission length <2 weeks the positive predictive value was 65% while it was 90% for admission length ⩾2 weeks. The positive predictive value was 81% for patients with a cardiac implantable electronic device and 87% for patients with a prosthetic valve. The positive predictive value of the infective endocarditis diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry is high for patients with admission length ⩾2 weeks. Using this algorithm, the Danish National Patient Registry provides a valid source for identifying infective endocarditis for research.

Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

2018-03-01

Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

Signal-averaged P wave in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Rosenheck, S

1997-10-01

The theoretical and experimental rational of atrial signal-averaged ECG in patients with AF is delay in the intra-atrial and interatrial conduction. Similar to the ventricular signal-averaged ECG, the atrial signal-averaged ECG is an averaging of a high number of consecutive P waves that match the template created earlier P wave triggering is preferred over QRS triggering because of more accurate aligning. However, the small amplitude of the atrial ECG and its gradual increase from the isoelectric line may create difficulties in defining the start point if P wave triggering is used. Studies using P wave triggering and those using QRS triggering demonstrate a prolonged P wave duration in patients with paroxysmal AF. The negative predictive value of this test is relatively high at 60%-80%. The positive predictive value of atrial signal-averaged ECGs in predicting the risk of AF is considerably lower than the negative predictive value. All the data accumulated prospectively on the predictive value of P wave signal-averaging was determined only in patients undergoing coronary bypass surgery or following MI; its value in other patients with paroxysmal AF is still not determined. The clinical role of frequency-domain analysis (alone or added to time-domain analysis) remains undefined. Because of this limited knowledge on the predictive value of P wave signal-averaging, it is still not clinical medicine, and further research is needed before atrial signal-averaged ECG will be part of clinical testing.

Ottawa Ankle Rules and Subjective Surgeon Perception to Evaluate Radiograph Necessity Following Foot and Ankle Sprain

PubMed Central

Pires, RES; Pereira, AA; Abreu-e-Silva, GM; Labronici, PJ; Figueiredo, LB; Godoy-Santos, AL; Kfuri, M

2014-01-01

Background: Foot and ankle injuries are frequent in emergency departments. Although only a few patients with foot and ankle sprain present fractures and the fracture patterns are almost always simple, lack of fracture diagnosis can lead to poor functional outcomes. Aim: The present study aims to evaluate the reliability of the Ottawa ankle rules and the orthopedic surgeon subjective perception to assess foot and ankle fractures after sprains. Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from July 2012 to December 2012. Ethical approval was granted. Two hundred seventy-four adult patients admitted to the emergency department with foot and/or ankle sprain were evaluated by an orthopedic surgeon who completed a questionnaire prior to radiographic assessment. The Ottawa ankle rules and subjective perception of foot and/or ankle fractures were evaluated on the questionnaire. Results: Thirteen percent (36/274) patients presented fracture. Orthopedic surgeon subjective analysis showed 55.6% sensitivity, 90.1% specificity, 46.5% positive predictive value and 92.9% negative predictive value. The general orthopedic surgeon opinion accuracy was 85.4%. The Ottawa ankle rules presented 97.2% sensitivity, 7.8% specificity, 13.9% positive predictive value, 95% negative predictive value and 19.9% accuracy respectively. Weight-bearing inability was the Ottawa ankle rule item that presented the highest reliability, 69.4% sensitivity, 61.6% specificity, 63.1% accuracy, 21.9% positive predictive value and 93% negative predictive value respectively. Conclusion: The Ottawa ankle rules showed high reliability for deciding when to take radiographs in foot and/or ankle sprains. Weight-bearing inability was the most important isolated item to predict fracture presence. Orthopedic surgeon subjective analysis to predict fracture possibility showed a high specificity rate, representing a confident method to exclude unnecessary radiographic exams. PMID:24971221

Customized versus population-based birth weight charts for the detection of neonatal growth and perinatal morbidity in a cross-sectional study of term neonates.

PubMed

Carberry, Angela E; Raynes-Greenow, Camille H; Turner, Robin M; Jeffery, Heather E

2013-10-15

Customized birth weight charts that incorporate maternal characteristics are now being adopted into clinical practice. However, there is controversy surrounding the value of these charts in the prediction of growth and perinatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the use of customized charts in predicting growth, defined by body fat percentage, and perinatal morbidity. A total of 581 term (≥37 weeks' gestation) neonates born in Sydney, Australia, in 2010 were included. Body fat percentage measurements were taken by using air displacement plethysmography. Objective composite measurements of perinatal morbidity were used to identify neonates who had poor outcomes; these data were extracted from medical records. The value of customized charts was assessed by calculating positive predictive values, negative predictive values, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Customized versus population-based charts did not improve the prediction of either low body fat percentage (59% vs. 66% positive predictive value and 87% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively) or high body fat percentage (48% vs. 53% positive predictive value and 90% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively). Customized charts were not better than population-based charts at predicting perinatal morbidity (for customized charts, odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.04; for population-based charts, odds ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.05) per percentile decrease in birth weight. Customized birth weight charts do not provide significant improvements over population-based charts in predicting neonatal growth and morbidity.

Periprosthetic infection: where do we stand with regard to Gram stain?

PubMed

Ghanem, Elie; Ketonis, Constantinos; Restrepo, Camilo; Joshi, Ashish; Barrack, Robert; Parvizi, Javad

2009-02-01

One of the routinely used intraoperative tests for diagnosis of periprosthetic infection (PPI) is the Gram stain. It is not known if the result of this test can vary according to the type of joint affected or the number of specimen samples collected. We examined the role of this diagnostic test in a large cohort of patients from a single institution. A positive gram stain was defined as the visualization of bacterial cells or "many neutrophils" (> 5 per high-power field) in the smear. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of each individual diagnostic arm of Gram stain were determined. Combinations were performed in series, which required both tests to be positive to confirm infection, and also in parallel, which necessitated both tests to be negative to rule out infection. The presence of organisms and "many" neutrophils on a Gram smear had high specificity (98-100%) and positive predictive value (89-100%) in both THA and TKA. The sensitivities (30-50%) and negative predictive values (70-79%) of the 2 tests were low for both joint types. When the 2 tests were combined in series, the specificity and positive predictive value were absolute (100%). The sensitivity and the negative predictive value improved for both THA and TKA (43-64% and 82%, respectively). Although the 2 diagnostic arms of Gram staining can be combined to achieve improved negative predictive value (82%), Gram stain continues to have little value in ruling out PPI. With the advances in the field of molecular biology, novel diagnostic modalities need to be designed that can replace these traditional and poor tests.

[Predictive value of breast imaging report and database system (BIRADS) to detect cancer in a reference regional hospital].

PubMed

Bellolio, Enrique; Pineda, Viviana; Burgos, María Eugenia; Iriarte, M José; Becker, Renato; Araya, Juan Carlos; Villaseca, Miguel; Mardones, Noldy

2015-12-01

To validate the BIRADS in mammography, the calculation of its predictive value in each center is required, as recommended by the American College of Radiology. To determine the predictive value of the BIRADS system in our center. All ultrasound guided needle percutaneous biopsies, performed at our center between 2006 and 2010 were reviewed. Predictive value, sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy of BIRADS were calculated, with a confidence interval of 95%. Of 1,313 biopsies available, 1,058 met the inclusion criteria. Fifty eight percent of biopsies were performed to women with mammographies classified as BIRADS 4 or 5. The presence of cancer in mammographies classified as BIRADS 0 was 4%. The prevalence of cancer for mammographies BIRADS 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 were 0, 3, 2.7, 17.7 and 72.4% respectively. The positive and negative predictive values of BIRADS classification were 55 and 92 % respectively. In our institution BIRADS classification 4 and 5 has a high positive predictive value for detecting cancer as in developed countries.

Thermodynamic and mechanical properties of epoxy resin DGEBF crosslinked with DETDA by molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Tack, Jeremy L; Ford, David M

2008-06-01

Fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were used to predict the properties of diglycidyl ether of bisphenol F (DGEBF) crosslinked with curing agent diethyltoluenediamine (DETDA). This polymer is a commercially important epoxy resin and a candidate for applications in nanocomposites. The calculated properties were density and bulk modulus (at near-ambient pressure and temperature) and glass transition temperature (at near-ambient pressure). The molecular topology, degree of curing, and MD force-field were investigated as variables. The models were created by densely packing pre-constructed oligomers of different composition and connectivity into a periodic simulation box. For high degrees of curing (greater than 90%), the density was found to be insensitive to the molecular topology and precise value of degree of curing. Of the two force-fields that were investigated, cff91 and COMPASS, the latter clearly gave more accurate values for the density as compared to experiment. In fact, the density predicted by COMPASS was within 6% of reported experimental values for the highly crosslinked polymer. The predictions of both force-fields for glass transition temperature were within the range of reported experimental values, with the predictions of cff91 being more consistent with a highly cured resin.

The predictive value of external continuous lumbar drainage, with cerebrospinal fluid outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in normal pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Panagiotopoulos, V; Konstantinou, D; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maraziotis, T

2005-09-01

Although sporadic studies have described temporary external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lumbar drainage as a highly accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) patients, a more recent study reports that the positive predictive value of external lumbar drainage (ELD) is high but the negative predictive value is deceptively low. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study in order to evaluate the predictive value of a continuous ELD, with CSF outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in NPH patients. Twenty-seven patients with presumed NPH were admitted to our department and CSF drainage was carried out by a temporary (ELD) with CSF outflow controlled by a medium pressure valve for five days. All patients received a ventriculoperitoneal shunt using a medium pressure valve based upon preoperative clinical and radiographic criteria of NPH, regardless of ELD outcome. Clinical evaluation of gait disturbances, urinary incontinence and mental status, and radiological evaluation with brain CT was performed prior to and after ELD test, as well as three months after shunting. Twenty-two patients were finally shunted and included in this study. In a three-month follow-up, using a previously validated score system, overall improvement after permanent shunting correlated well to improvement after ELD test (Spearman's rho = 0.462, p = 0.03). When considering any degree of improvement as a positive response, ELD test yielded high positive predictive values for all individual parameters (gait disturbances 94%, 95% CI 71%-100%, urinary incontinence 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%, and mental status 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%) but negative predictive values were low (< 50%) except for cognitive impairment (85%, 95% CI 55%-98%). This study suggests that a positive ELD-valve system test should be considered a reliable criterion for preoperative selection of shunt-responsive NPH patients. In case of a negative ELD-valve system test, further investigation of the presumed NPH patients with additional tests should be performed.

Severe community-acquired pneumonia. Assessment of severity criteria.

PubMed

Ewig, S; Ruiz, M; Mensa, J; Marcos, M A; Martinez, J A; Arancibia, F; Niederman, M S; Torres, A

1998-10-01

The purpose of the study was to validate the criteria used in the guidelines of the American Thoracic Society (ATS) for severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Severe pneumonia was defined as admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Overall 331 nonsevere (84%) and 64 severe cases (16%) of CAP were prospectively studied. Mortality was 19 of 395 (5%) and 19 of 64 (30%), respectively. Single severity criteria as well as the ATS definition of severe pneumonia were assessed calculating the operative indices. A modified prediction rule including minor (baseline) and major (baseline or evolutionary) criteria was derived. Single minor criteria at admission had a low sensitivity and positive predictive value. Defining severe pneumonia according to the ATS guidelines had a high sensitivity (98%). However, specificity and positive predictive value were low (32% and 24%, respectively). A modified prediction rule (presence of two or three minor criteria [systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg, multilobar involvement, PaO2/FIO2 < 250] or one of two major criteria [requirement of mechanical ventilation, presence of septic shock]) had a sensitivity of 78%, a specificity of 94%, a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 95%. The ATS definition of severe pneumonia was highly sensitive but insufficiently specific and had a low positive predictive value. Our suggested modified rule had a more balanced performance and, if validated in an independent population, may represent a more accurate definition of severe CAP.

Optical coherence tomography in the diagnosis of dysplasia and adenocarcinoma in Barret's esophagus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladkova, N. D.; Zagaynova, E. V.; Zuccaro, G.; Kareta, M. V.; Feldchtein, F. I.; Balalaeva, I. V.; Balandina, E. B.

2007-02-01

Statistical analysis of endoscopic optical coherence tomography (EOCT) surveillance of 78 patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) is presented in this study. The sensitivity of OCT device in retrospective open detection of early malignancy (including high grade dysplasia and intramucosal adenocarcinoma (IMAC)) was 75%, specificity 82%, diagnostic accuracy - 80%, positive predictive value- 60%, negative predictive value- 87%. In the open recognition of IMAC sensitivity was 81% and specificity were 85% each. Results of a blind recognition with the same material were similar: sensitivity - 77%, specificity 85%, diagnostic accuracy - 82%, positive predictive value- 70%, negative predictive value- 87%. As the endoscopic detection of early malignancy is problematic, OCT holds great promise in enhancing the diagnostic capability of clinical GI endoscopy.

[A Retrospective Study of Mean Computed Tomography Value to Predict 
the Tumor Invasiveness in AAH and Clinical Stage Ia Lung Cancer].

PubMed

Wu, Hanran; Liu, Changqing; Xu, Meiqing; Xiong, Ran; Xu, Guangwen; Li, Caiwei; Xie, Mingran

2018-03-20

Recently, the detectable rate of ground-glass opacity (GGO ) was significantly increased, a appropriate diagnosis before clinic treatment tends to be important for patients with GGO lesions. The aim of this study is to validate the ability of the mean computed tomography (m-CT) value to predict tumor invasiveness, and compared with other measurements such as Max CT value, GGO size, solid size of GGO and C/T ratio (consolid/tumor ratio, C/T) to find out the best measurement to predict tumor invasiveness. A retrospective study was conducted of 129 patients who recieved lobectomy and were pathological confirmed as atypical adenomatous pyperplasia (AAH) or clinical stage Ia lung cance in our center between January 2012 and December 2013. Of those 129 patients, the number of patients of AAH, AIS, AIS and invasive adenocarcinoma were 43, 26, 17 and 43, respectively. We defined AAH and AIS as noninvasive cancer (NC), MIA and invasive adenocarcinoma were categorized as invasive cancer(IC). We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to compare the ability to predict tumor invasiveness between m-CT value, consolidation/tumor ratio, tumor size and solid size of tumor. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent variables for prediction of pathologic more invasive lung cancer. 129 patients were enrolled in our study (59 male and 70 female), the patients were a median age of (62.0±8.6) years (range, 44 to 82 years). The two groups were similar in terms of age, sex, differentiation (P>0.05). ROC curve analysis was performed to determine the appropriate cutoff value and area under the cure (AUC). The cutoff value of solid tumor size, tumor size, C/T ratio, m-CT value and Max CT value were 9.4 mm, 15.3 mm, 47.5%, -469.0 HU and -35.0 HU, respectively. The AUC of those variate were 0.89, 0.79, 0.82, 0.90, 0.85, respectively. When compared the clinical and radiologic data between two groups, we found the IC group was strongly associated with a high m-CT value, high Max CT value, high C/T ratio and large tumor size. Gender, solid tumor size, tumor size, C/T ratio, m-CT value and MaxCT value were selected factor for multivariate analysis, when using the preoperatively determined variables to predict the tumor invasiveness, revealed that tumor size, C/T ratio, m-CT value and Max CT value were independent predictive factors of IC. The musurements of Max CT value, GGO size, solid size of GGO and C/T ratio were significantly correlated with tumor invasiveness, and the evaluation of m-CT value is most useful musurement in predicting more invasive lung cancer.

A novel clinical index for the assessment of RVD in acute pulmonary embolism: Blood pressure index.

PubMed

Ates, Hale; Ates, Ihsan; Kundi, Harun; Arikan, Mehmet Fettah; Yilmaz, Fatma Meric

2017-10-01

This study aims to investigate the role of the blood pressure index (BPI), which is a new index that we developed, in detection of right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) in acute pulmonary embolism (APE). A total of 539 patients, (253 males and 286 females), diagnosed with APE using computer tomography pulmonary angiography were included in the study. The BPI was obtained by dividing systolic blood pressure (SBP) by diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Mean DBP (75±11mmHg vs 63±15mmHg; p<0.001, respectively) was found to be higher in RVD patients compared to those without RVD, whereas BPI (1.5±0.1 vs 1.9±0.2; p<0.001, respectively) was lower. Examining the performance of BPI in prediction of RVD using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under curve±SE=0.975±0.006; p<0.001), it was found that BPI could predict RVD with very high sensitivity (92.8%) and specificity (100%) and had a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 42.1%. According to the analysis, the highest youden index for the optimal prediction value was found to be 0.478 and the BPI≤1.4 was found to predict mortality 68.6% sensitivity and 80.8% specificity (Area under curve±SE=0.777±0.051; p<0.001). We found that BPI was an index with high positive predictive value and low negative predictive value in detection of RVD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE PANC 3 SCORE PREDICTING SEVERITY OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS.

PubMed

Beduschi, Murilo Gamba; Mello, André Luiz Parizi; VON-Mühlen, Bruno; Franzon, Orli

2016-03-01

About 20% of cases of acute pancreatitis progress to a severe form, leading to high mortality rates. Several studies suggested methods to identify patients that will progress more severely. However, most studies present problems when used on daily practice. To assess the efficacy of the PANC 3 score to predict acute pancreatitis severity and its relation to clinical outcome. Acute pancreatitis patients were assessed as to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), etiology of pancreatitis, intensive care need, length of stay, length of stay in intensive care unit and mortality. The PANC 3 score was determined within the first 24 hours after diagnosis and compared to acute pancreatitis grade of the Revised Atlanta classification. Out of 64 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, 58 met the inclusion criteria. The PANC 3 score was positive in five cases (8.6%), pancreatitis progressed to a severe form in 10 cases (17.2%) and five patients (8.6%) died. Patients with a positive score and severe pancreatitis required intensive care more often, and stayed for a longer period in intensive care units. The PANC 3 score showed sensitivity of 50%, specificity of 100%, accuracy of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 90.6% in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. The PANC 3 score is useful to assess acute pancreatitis because it is easy and quick to use, has high specificity, high accuracy and high predictive value in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis.

THE PANC 3 SCORE PREDICTING SEVERITY OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS

PubMed Central

BEDUSCHI, Murilo Gamba; MELLO, André Luiz Parizi; VON-MÜHLEN, Bruno; FRANZON, Orli

2016-01-01

Background : About 20% of cases of acute pancreatitis progress to a severe form, leading to high mortality rates. Several studies suggested methods to identify patients that will progress more severely. However, most studies present problems when used on daily practice. Objective : To assess the efficacy of the PANC 3 score to predict acute pancreatitis severity and its relation to clinical outcome. Methods : Acute pancreatitis patients were assessed as to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), etiology of pancreatitis, intensive care need, length of stay, length of stay in intensive care unit and mortality. The PANC 3 score was determined within the first 24 hours after diagnosis and compared to acute pancreatitis grade of the Revised Atlanta classification. Results : Out of 64 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, 58 met the inclusion criteria. The PANC 3 score was positive in five cases (8.6%), pancreatitis progressed to a severe form in 10 cases (17.2%) and five patients (8.6%) died. Patients with a positive score and severe pancreatitis required intensive care more often, and stayed for a longer period in intensive care units. The PANC 3 score showed sensitivity of 50%, specificity of 100%, accuracy of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 90.6% in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. Conclusion : The PANC 3 score is useful to assess acute pancreatitis because it is easy and quick to use, has high specificity, high accuracy and high predictive value in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis. PMID:27120730

The Predictive Value of Selection Criteria in an Urban Magnet School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lohmeier, Jill Hendrickson; Raad, Jennifer

2012-01-01

The predictive value of selection criteria on outcome data from two cohorts of students (Total N = 525) accepted to an urban magnet high school were evaluated. Regression analyses of typical screening variables (suspensions, absences, metropolitan achievement tests, middle school grade point averages [GPAs], Matrix Analogies test scores, and…

Prospective evaluation of a screening protocol to exclude deep vein thrombosis on the basis of a combination of quantitative D-dimer testing and pretest clinical probability score.

PubMed

Yamaki, Takashi; Nozaki, Motohiro; Sakurai, Hiroyuki; Takeuchi, Masaki; Soejima, Kazutaka; Kono, Taro

2005-11-01

Clinical signs and symptoms such as swelling, pain, and redness are unreliable markers of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). Because of this venous duplex scanning (VDS) has been heavily used in DVT detection. The purpose of this study was to determine if a combination of D-dimer testing and pretest clinical score could reduce the use of VDS in symptomatic patients with suspected DVT. One hundred seventy-four consecutive patients with suspected DVT were prospectively evaluated using pretest clinical probability (PCP) score and D-dimer testing before VDS. After calculating clinical probability scores developed by Wells and associates, patients were divided into low risk (or=3 points) PCP. One hundred fifty-eight patients were enrolled. The prevalence of DVT in this study was 37%. Thirty-eight patients (24%) were classified as low risk, 64 (41%) as moderate risk, and 56 (35%) as high risk PCP. DVT was identified in only one patient (2.6%) with low risk PCP. In contrast, DVT was found in 22 (34%) with moderate risk, and 35 (63%) with high risk PCP. In the high and moderate risk PCP groups, positive scan patients had a markedly higher value of D-dimer assay than negative scan patients (p=0.0001 and p=0.0057, respectively). In the low risk PCP patients, D-dimer testing provided 100% sensitivity, 46% specificity, 4.8% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value in the diagnosis of DVT. Similarly, in the moderate risk PCP, the D-dimer testing showed 100% sensitivity, 45% specificity, 49% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value. In the high risk group, D-dimer testing achieved 100% sensitivity, 57% specificity, 80% positive predictive value, and 100% negative predictive value in the diagnosis of DVT. These results suggested that 36 of 158 patients who had a non-high PCP (low and moderate PCP) and a normal D-dimer concentration were considered to have no additional investigation, so VDS could have been reduced by 23% (36/158). A combination of D-dimer testing and clinical probability score may be effective in avoiding unnecessary VDS in suspected symptomatic DVT in the low and moderate PCP patients. The need for VDS could be reduced by 23% despite a relatively high prevalence of DVT.

Pursuit of communal values in an agentic manner: a way to happiness?

PubMed

Abele, Andrea E

2014-01-01

The present research studies the association between traits, values, and life satisfaction. While values should influence the direction of an individual's goals and behavior, his/her traits impact effort-expenditure, efficiency, and persistence in goal-pursuit. We apply the framework of the "Big Two" of agency and communion (Bakan, 1966) for distinguishing the content of values and traits. While agentic content refers to qualities relevant for goal-attainment, such as assertiveness, competence or persistence, communal content refers to qualities relevant for the establishment and maintenance of social relationships, such as being friendly, helpful, or fair. We predict that high scores on communal values and high scores on agentic traits are associated with life satisfaction. We test these predictions in two studies conducted in different countries (Germany and Russia) with different cultural background. The findings support our reasoning: across both countries we find positive associations of communal values and agentic traits with life satisfaction; and individuals high in communal values and high in agentic traits are most satisfied with their lives. In Russia, the association of communal values with life satisfaction is moderated by agentic traits; in Germany, however, there is a main effect of communal values.

Pursuit of communal values in an agentic manner: a way to happiness?

PubMed Central

Abele, Andrea E.

2014-01-01

The present research studies the association between traits, values, and life satisfaction. While values should influence the direction of an individual’s goals and behavior, his/her traits impact effort-expenditure, efficiency, and persistence in goal-pursuit. We apply the framework of the “Big Two” of agency and communion (Bakan, 1966) for distinguishing the content of values and traits. While agentic content refers to qualities relevant for goal-attainment, such as assertiveness, competence or persistence, communal content refers to qualities relevant for the establishment and maintenance of social relationships, such as being friendly, helpful, or fair. We predict that high scores on communal values and high scores on agentic traits are associated with life satisfaction. We test these predictions in two studies conducted in different countries (Germany and Russia) with different cultural background. The findings support our reasoning: across both countries we find positive associations of communal values and agentic traits with life satisfaction; and individuals high in communal values and high in agentic traits are most satisfied with their lives. In Russia, the association of communal values with life satisfaction is moderated by agentic traits; in Germany, however, there is a main effect of communal values. PMID:25477843

Combined use of late phase dimercapto-succinic acid renal scintigraphy and ultrasound as first line screening after urinary tract infection in children.

PubMed

Quirino, Isabel G; Silva, Jose Maria P; Diniz, Jose S; Lima, Eleonora M; Rocha, Ana Cristina S; Simões e Silva, Ana Cristina; Oliveira, Eduardo A

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of dimercapto-succinic acid renal scintigraphy and renal ultrasound in identifying high grade vesicoureteral reflux in children after a first episode of urinary tract infection. A total of 533 children following a first urinary tract infection were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed by 3 diagnostic imaging studies, renal ultrasound, dimercapto-succinic acid scan and voiding cystourethrography. The main event of interest was the presence of high grade (III to V) vesicoureteral reflux. The combined and separate diagnostic accuracy of screening methods was assessed by calculation of diagnostic OR, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio. A total of 246 patients had reflux, of whom 144 (27%) had high grade (III to V) disease. Sensitivity, negative predictive value and diagnostic OR of ultrasound for high grade reflux were 83.3%, 90.8% and 7.9, respectively. Dimercapto-succinic acid scan had the same sensitivity as ultrasound but a higher negative predictive value (91.7%) and diagnostic OR (10.9). If both tests were analyzed in parallel by using the OR rule, ie a negative diagnosis was established only when both test results were normal, sensitivity increased to 97%, negative predictive value to 97% and diagnostic OR to 25.3. Only 9 children (6.3%) with dilating reflux had an absence of alterations in both tests. Our findings support the idea that ultrasound and dimercapto-succinic acid scan used in combination are reliable predictors of dilating vesicoureteral reflux. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can blood and semen presepsin levels in males predict pregnancy in couples undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection?

PubMed Central

Ovayolu, Ali; Arslanbuğa, Cansev Yilmaz; Gun, Ismet; Devranoglu, Belgin; Ozdemir, Arman; Cakar, Sule Eren

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine whether semen and plasma presepsin values measured in men with normozoospermia and oligoasthenospermia undergoing invitro-fertilization would be helpful in predicting ongoing pregnancy and live birth. Methods: Group-I was defined as patients who had pregnancy after treatment and Group-II comprised those with no pregnancy. Semen and blood presepsin values were subsequently compared between the groups. Parametric comparisons were performed using Student’s t-test, and non-parametric comparisons were conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: There were 42 patients in Group-I and 72 in Group-II. In the context of successful pregnancy and live birth, semen presepsin values were statistically significantly higher in Group-I than in Group-II (p= 0.004 and p= 0.037, respectively). The most appropriate semen presepsin cut-off value for predicting both ongoing pregnancy and live birth was calculated as 199 pg/mL. Accordingly, their sensitivity was 64.5% to 59.3%, their specificity was 57.0% to 54.2%, and their positive predictive value was 37.0% to 29.6%, respectively; their negative predictive value was 80.4% in both instances. Conclusion: Semen presepsin values could be a new marker that may enable the prediction of successful pregnancy and/or live birth. Its negative predictive values are especially high. PMID:27882005

Temporal Stability of ADHD in the High-IQ Population: Results from the MGH Longitudinal Family Studies of ADHD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Antshel, Kevin M.; Faraone, Stephen V.; Maglione, Katherine; Doyle, Alysa; Fried, Ronna; Seidman, Larry; Biederman, Joseph

2008-01-01

A study was conducted to establish the relationship between Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity (ADHD) disorder and high-IQ children and whether ADHD has a high predictive value among youths with high-IQ. Results further supported the hypothesis for the predictive validity of ADHD in high-IQ youths.

A 3-Year Study of Predictive Factors for Positive and Negative Appendicectomies.

PubMed

Chang, Dwayne T S; Maluda, Melissa; Lee, Lisa; Premaratne, Chandrasiri; Khamhing, Srisongham

2018-03-06

Early and accurate identification or exclusion of acute appendicitis is the key to avoid the morbidity of delayed treatment for true appendicitis or unnecessary appendicectomy, respectively. We aim (i) to identify potential predictive factors for positive and negative appendicectomies; and (ii) to analyse the use of ultrasound scans (US) and computed tomography (CT) scans for acute appendicitis. All appendicectomies that took place at our hospital from the 1st of January 2013 to the 31st of December 2015 were retrospectively recorded. Test results of potential predictive factors of acute appendicitis were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher exact test, logistic regression analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values calculation. 208 patients were included in this study. 184 patients had histologically proven acute appendicitis. The other 24 patients had either nonappendicitis pathology or normal appendix. Logistic regression analysis showed statistically significant associations between appendicitis and white cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, and bilirubin. Neutrophil count was the test with the highest sensitivity and negative predictive values, whereas bilirubin was the test with the highest specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). US and CT scans had high sensitivity and PPV for diagnosing appendicitis. No single test was sufficient to diagnose or exclude acute appendicitis by itself. Combining tests with high sensitivity (abnormal neutrophil count, and US and CT scans) and high specificity (raised bilirubin) may predict acute appendicitis more accurately.

Predictive value of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for acute myocardial infarction in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Pang, Hui; Han, Bing; Fu, Qiang; Zong, Zhenkun

2017-07-05

The presence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) confers a poor prognosis in atrial fibrillation (AF), associated with increased mortality dramatically. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores for AMI in patients with AF. This retrospective study enrolled 5140 consecutive nonvalvular AF patients, 300 patients with AMI and 4840 patients without AMI. We identified the optimal cut-off values of the CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc scores each based on receiver operating characteristic curves to predict the risk of AMI. Both CHADS 2 score and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score were associated with an increased odds ratio of the prevalence of AMI in patients with AF, after adjustment for hyperlipidaemia, hyperuricemia, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism and obstructive sleep apnea. The present results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for CHADS 2 score was 0.787 with a similar accuracy of the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score (AUC 0.750) in predicting "high-risk" AF patients who developed AMI. However, the predictive accuracy of the two clinical-based risk scores was fair. The CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score has fair predictive value for identifying high-risk patients with AF and is not significantly superior to CHADS 2 in predicting patients who develop AMI.

Evaluation of predictive capacities of biomarkers based on research synthesis.

PubMed

Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2016-11-10

The objective of diagnostic studies or prognostic studies is to evaluate and compare predictive capacities of biomarkers. Suppose we are interested in evaluation and comparison of predictive capacities of continuous biomarkers for a binary outcome based on research synthesis. In analysis of each study, subjects are often classified into two groups of the high-expression and low-expression groups according to a cut-off value, and statistical analysis is based on a 2 × 2 table defined by the response and the high expression or low expression of the biomarker. Because the cut-off is study specific, it is difficult to interpret a combined summary measure such as an odds ratio based on the standard meta-analysis techniques. The summary receiver operating characteristic curve is a useful method for meta-analysis of diagnostic studies in the presence of heterogeneity of cut-off values to examine discriminative capacities of biomarkers. We develop a method to estimate positive or negative predictive curves, which are alternative to the receiver operating characteristic curve based on information reported in published papers of each study. These predictive curves provide a useful graphical presentation of pairs of positive and negative predictive values and allow us to compare predictive capacities of biomarkers of different scales in the presence of heterogeneity in cut-off values among studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of polyparameter linear free energy relationship (pp-LFER) substance descriptors for established and alternative flame retardants.

PubMed

Stenzel, Angelika; Goss, Kai-Uwe; Endo, Satoshi

2013-02-05

Polyparameter linear free energy relationships (pp-LFERs) can predict partition coefficients for a multitude of environmental and biological phases with high accuracy. In this work, the pp-LFER substance descriptors of 40 established and alternative flame retardants (e.g., polybrominated diphenyl ethers, hexabromocyclododecane, bromobenzenes, trialkyl phosphates) were determined experimentally. In total, 251 data for gas-chromatographic (GC) retention times and liquid/liquid partition coefficients (K) were measured and used to calibrate the pp-LFER substance descriptors. Substance descriptors were validated through a comparison between predicted and experimental log K for the systems octanol/water (K(ow)), water/air (K(wa)), organic carbon/water (K(oc)) and liposome/water (K(lipw)), revealing a high reliability of pp-LFER predictions based on our descriptors. For instance, the difference between predicted and experimental log K(ow) was <0.3 log units for 17 out of 21 compounds for which experimental values were available. Moreover, we found an indication that the H-bond acceptor value (B) depends on the solvent for some compounds. Thus, for predicting environmentally relevant partition coefficients it is important to determine B values using measurements in aqueous systems. The pp-LFER descriptors calibrated in this study can be used to predict partition coefficients for which experimental data are unavailable, and the predicted values can serve as references for further experimental measurements.

[Predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in infants with asphyxia].

PubMed

Chen, Nan; Wen, Xiao-Hong; Huang, Jin-Hua; Wang, Shui-Yun; Zhu, Yue-E

2015-12-01

To investigate the predictive value of the qualitative assessment of general movements (GMs) for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia. A total of 114 full-term asphyxiated infants, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between 2009 and 2012 and took part in follow-ups after discharge were included in the study. All of them received the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth. The development quotient was determined with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months of age. The results of the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth showed that among 114 infants, 20 (17.5%) had poor repertoire movements and 7 (6.1%) had cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period; 8 infants (7.0%) had the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period. The results of development quotient at 24 months of age showed that 7 infants (6.1%) had adverse developmental outcomes: 6 cases of cerebral palsy and mental retardation and 1 case of mental retardation. There was a poor consistency between poor repertoire movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=-0.019; P>0.05). There was a high consistency between cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.848; P<0.05), and the results of predictive values of cramped-synchronized movements were shown as follows: predictive validity 98.2%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 99.1%, positive predictive value 85.7%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. There was a high consistency between the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.786; P<0.05), and its predictive values were expressed as follows: predictive validity 97.4%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 98.1%, positive predictive value 75.0%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. Cramped-synchronized movements and absence of fidgety movements can predict adverse developmental outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia.

Periprosthetic infection: where do we stand with regard to Gram stain?

PubMed Central

Ghanem, Elie; Ketonis, Constantinos; Restrepo, Camilo; Joshi, Ashish; Barrack, Robert

2009-01-01

Background and purpose One of the routinely used intraoperative tests for diagnosis of periprosthetic infection (PPI) is the Gram stain. It is not known if the result of this test can vary according to the type of joint affected or the number of specimen samples collected. We examined the role of this diagnostic test in a large cohort of patients from a single institution. Materials and methods A positive gram stain was defined as the visualization of bacterial cells or “many neutrophils” (> 5 per high-power field) in the smear. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of each individual diagnostic arm of Gram stain were determined. Combinations were performed in series, which required both tests to be positive to confirm infection, and also in parallel, which necessitated both tests to be negative to rule out infection. Results The presence of organisms and “many” neutrophils on a Gram smear had high specificity (98–100%) and positive predictive value (89–100%) in both THA and TKA. The sensitivities (30–50%) and negative predictive values (70–79%) of the 2 tests were low for both joint types. When the 2 tests were combined in series, the specificity and positive predictive value were absolute (100%). The sensitivity and the negative predictive value improved for both THA and TKA (43–64% and 82%, respectively). Interpretation Although the 2 diagnostic arms of Gram staining can be combined to achieve improved negative predictive value (82%), Gram stain continues to have little value in ruling out PPI. With the advances in the field of molecular biology, novel diagnostic modalities need to be designed that can replace these traditional and poor tests. PMID:19297787

Prognosis of Pregnant Women with One Abnormal Value on 75g OGTT.

PubMed

Kozuma, Yutaka; Inoue, Shigeru; Horinouchi, Takashi; Shinagawa, Takaaki; Nakayama, Hitomi; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Hori, Daizo; Kamura, Toshiharu; Yamada, Kentaro; Ushijima, Kimio

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors to allow us to detect patients at high risk of requiring insulin therapy, among Japanese pregnant women with one abnormal value (OAV) on a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (75-g OGTT). A total of 118 pregnant women with OAV on a previous 75-g OGTT between 1997 and 2010 were studied. We identified the factors which can predict patients at high risk of requiring insulin therapy among Japanese pregnant women with OAV, by comparing severe abnormal glucose tolerance (insulin treatment; n=17) with mild glucose tolerance patients (diet only; n=101). The following factors were examined; plasma level of glucose (PG) and immunoreactive insulin (IRI) at fasting, 0.5, 1 and 2 hours after loading glucose, insulinogenic index, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), insulin sensitivity index-composite (ISI composite), and HbA1c at the time of the 75-g OGTT. Univariate analysis showed a positive correlation between insulin therapy and 2-h PG value, 0.5-h and 1-h IRI values, AUC-IRI and insulinogenic index (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that the PG 2-h value and insulinogenic index were independent predictive factors of insulin therapy. A 2-h PG ≥153 mg / dl and an insulinogenic index of <0.42 had a sensitivity of 81.8%, a specificity of 83.8%, a positive predictive value of 60.0% and a negative predictive value of 93.9% for the prediction of patients who required insulin therapy among pregnant women with OAV. These results suggest that a level of 2-h PG ≥153 mg/dl and an insulinogenic index of <0.42 on 75-g OGTT are predictive factors for insulin therapy in Japanese pregnant women with OAV.

Accelerated Discovery of High-Refractive-Index Polymers Using First-Principles Modeling, Virtual High-Throughput Screening, and Data Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afzal, Mohammad Atif Faiz; Cheng, Chong; Hachmann, Johannes

Organic materials with refractive index (RI) values higher than 1.7 have attracted considerable interest in recent years due to the tremendous potential for their application in optical, optometric, and optoelectronic devices, and thus for shaping technological innovation in numerous related areas. Our work is concerned with creating predictive models for the optical properties of organic polymers, which will guide our experimentalist partners and allow them to target the most promising candidates. The RI model is developed based on a synergistic combination of first-principles electronic structure theory and machine learning techniques. The RI values predicted for common polymers using this model are in very good agreement with the experimental values. We also benchmark different DFT approximations along with various basis sets for their predictive performance in this model. We demonstrate that this combination of first-principles and data modeling is both successful and highly economical in determining the RI values of a wide range of organic polymers. To accelerate the development process, we cast this modeling approach into the high-throughput screening, materials informatics, and rational design framework that is developed in the group. This framework is a powerful tool and has shown to be highly promising for rapidly identifying polymer candidates with exceptional RI values as well as discovering design rules for advanced materials.

Association of physical examination with pulmonary artery catheter parameters in acute lung injury.

PubMed

Grissom, Colin K; Morris, Alan H; Lanken, Paul N; Ancukiewicz, Marek; Orme, James F; Schoenfeld, David A; Thompson, B Taylor

2009-10-01

To correlate physical examination findings, central venous pressure, fluid output, and central venous oxygen saturation with pulmonary artery catheter parameters. Retrospective study. Data from the multicenter Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial of the National Institutes of Health Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network. Five hundred thirteen patients with acute lung injury randomized to treatment with a pulmonary artery catheter. Correlation of physical examination findings (capillary refill time >2 secs, knee mottling, or cool extremities), central venous pressure, fluid output, and central venous oxygen saturation with parameters from a pulmonary artery catheter. We determined association of baseline physical examination findings and on-study parameters of central venous pressure and central venous oxygen saturation with cardiac index <2.5 L/min/m2 and mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%. We determined correlation of baseline central venous oxygen saturation and mixed venous oxygen saturation and predictive value of a low central venous oxygen saturation for a low mixed venous oxygen saturation. Prevalence of cardiac index <2.5 and mixed venous oxygen saturation <60% was 8.1% and 15.5%, respectively. Baseline presence of all three physical examination findings had low sensitivity (12% and 8%), high specificity (98% and 99%), low positive predictive value (40% and 56%), but high negative predictive value (93% and 86%) for cardiac index <2.5 and mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%, respectively. Central venous oxygen saturation <70% predicted a mixed venous oxygen saturation <60% with a sensitivity 84%,specificity 70%, positive predictive value 31%, and negative predictive value of 96%. Low cardiac index correlated with cool extremities, high central venous pressure, and low 24-hr fluid output; and low mixed venous oxygen saturation correlated with knee mottling and high central venous pressure, but these correlations were not found to be clinically useful. In this subset of patients with acute lung injury, there is a high prior probability that cardiac index and mixed venous oxygen saturation are normal and physical examination findings of ineffective circulation are not useful for predicting low cardiac index or mixed venous oxygen saturation. Central venous oxygen saturation <70% does not accurately predict mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%, but a central venous oxygen saturation >or=70% may be useful to exclude mixed venous oxygen saturation <60%.

Association between Gallbladder Ultrasound Findings and Bacterial Culture of Bile in 70 Cats and 202 Dogs.

PubMed

Policelli Smith, R; Gookin, J L; Smolski, W; Di Cicco, M F; Correa, M; Seiler, G S

2017-09-01

Bacterial cholecystitis often is diagnosed by combination of gallbladder ultrasound (US) findings and positive results of bile culture. The value of gallbladder US in determining the likelihood of bile bacterial infection in cats and dogs with suspected biliary disease is unknown. To determine the value of gallbladder US in predicting bile bacterial culture results, identify most common bacterial isolates from bile, and describe complications after cholecystocentesis in cats and dogs with suspected hepatobiliary disease. Cats (70) and dogs (202) that underwent an abdominal US and submission of bile for culture were included in the study. A cross-sectional study design was used to determine the association of gallbladder US abnormalities and the results of bile cultures, and complications of cholecystocentesis. Abnormal gallbladder US had high sensitivity (96%) but low specificity (49%) in cats with positive and negative results of bile bacterial culture, respectively. Cats with normal gallbladder US findings were unlikely to have positive bile bacterial culture (negative predictive value of 96%). Gallbladder US had lower sensitivity (81%), specificity (31%), positive predictive value (20%), and negative predictive value (88%) in dogs. The most common bacterial isolates were of enteric origin, the prevalence being higher in cats. Incidence of complications after cholecystocentesis was 3.4%. Gallbladder US has a high negative predictive value for bile culture results in cats. This modality is less predictive of infection in dogs. Percutaneous US-guided cholecystocentesis has a low complication rate. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Ovarian response to 150 µg corifollitropin alfa in a GnRH-antagonist multiple-dose protocol: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Lerman, Tamara; Depenbusch, Marion; Schultze-Mosgau, Askan; von Otte, Soeren; Scheinhardt, Markus; Koenig, Inke; Kamischke, Axel; Macek, Milan; Schwennicke, Arne; Segerer, Sabine; Griesinger, Georg

2017-05-01

The incidence of low (<6 oocytes) and high (>18 oocytes) ovarian response to 150 µg corifollitropin alfa in relation to anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and other biomarkers was studied in a multi-centre (n = 5), multi-national, prospective, investigator-initiated, observational cohort study. Infertile women (n = 212), body weight >60 kg, underwent controlled ovarian stimulation in a gonadotrophin-releasing hormone-antagonist multiple-dose protocol. Demographic, sonographic and endocrine parameters were prospectively assessed on cycle day 2 or 3 of a spontaneous menstruation before the administration of 150 µg corifollitropin alfa. Serum AMH showed the best correlation with the number of oocytes obtained among all predictor variables. In receiver-operating characteristic analysis, AMH at a threshold of 0.91 ng/ml showed a sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 82.4%, positive predictive value 52.9%and negative predictive value 95.1% for predicting low response (area under the curve [AUC], 95% CI; P-value: 0.853, 0.769-0.936; <0.0001). For predicting high response, the optimal threshold for AMH was 2.58 ng/ml, relating to a sensitivity of 80.0%, specificity 82.1%, positive predictive value 42.5% and negative predictive value 96.1% (AUC, 95% CI; P-value: 0.871, 0.787-0.955; <0.0001). In conclusion, patients with serum AMH concentrations between approximately 0.9 and 2.6 ng/ml were unlikely to show extremes of response. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The predictive value of MRI in detecting thyroid gland invasion in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Lin, Peiliang; Huang, Xiaoming; Zheng, Chushan; Cai, Qian; Guan, Zhong; Liang, Faya; Zheng, Yiqing

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting thyroid gland invasion (TGI) in patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma. In a retrospective chart review, 41 patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma underwent MRI scan before total laryngectomy and ipsilateral or bilateral thyroidectomy during the past 5 years. The MRI findings were compared with the postoperative pathological results. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Among the 41 patients, 3 had thyroid gland invasion in postoperative pathological results. MRI correctly predicted the absence of TGI in 37 of 38 patients and TGI in all 3 patients. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of MRI were 100.0, 97.4, 75.0, and 100 %, respectively, with the diagnostic accuracy of 97.6 %. In consideration of the high negative predictive value of MRI, it may help surgeons selectively preserve thyroid gland in total laryngectomy and reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism postoperatively.

Prediction of early and late preeclampsia by flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery*

PubMed Central

Brandão, Augusto Henriques Fulgêncio; Evangelista, Aline Aarão; Martins, Raphaela Menin Franco; Leite, Henrique Vítor; Cabral, Antônio Carlos Vieira

2014-01-01

Objective To assess the accuracy in the prediction of both early and late preeclampsia by flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery (FMD), a biophysical marker for endothelial dysfunction. Materials and Methods A total of 91 patients, considered at high risk for development of preeclampsia were submitted to brachial artery FMD between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation. Results Nineteen out of the selected patients developed preeclampsia, 8 in its early form and 11 in the late form. With a cut-off value of 6.5%, the FMD sensitivity for early preeclampsia prediction was 75.0%, with specificity of 73.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 32.4% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 91.9%. For the prediction of late preeclampsia, sensitivity = 83.3%, specificity = 73.2%, PPV = 34.4% and NPV = 96.2% were observed. And for the prediction of all associated forms of preeclampsia, sensitivity = 84.2%, specificity = 73.6%, PPV = 45.7% and NPV = 94.6% were observed. Conclusion FMD of the brachial artery is a test with good accuracy in the prediction of both early and late preeclampsia, which may represent a positive impact on the follow-up of pregnant women at high risk for developing this syndrome. PMID:25741086

Predictive value of dysregulation profile trajectories in childhood for symptoms of ADHD, anxiety and depression in late adolescence.

PubMed

Wang, B; Brueni, L G; Isensee, C; Meyer, T; Bock, N; Ravens-Sieberer, U; Klasen, F; Schlack, R; Becker, A; Rothenberger, A

2018-06-01

We examined whether there are certain dysregulation profile trajectories in childhood that may predict an elevated risk for mental disorders in later adolescence. Participants (N = 554) were drawn from a representative community sample of German children, 7-11 years old, who were followed over four measurement points (baseline, 1, 2 and 6 years later). Dysregulation profile, derived from the parent report of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, was measured at the first three measurement points, while symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anxiety and depression were assessed at the fourth measurement point. We used latent class growth analysis to investigate developmental trajectories in the development of the dysregulation profile. The predictive value of dysregulation profile trajectories for later ADHD, anxiety and depression was examined by linear regression. For descriptive comparison, the predictive value of a single measurement (baseline) was calculated. Dysregulation profile was a stable trait during childhood. Boys and girls had similar levels of dysregulation profile over time. Two developmental subgroups were identified, namely the low dysregulation profile and the high dysregulation profile trajectory. The group membership in the high dysregulation profile trajectory (n = 102) was best predictive of later ADHD, regardless of an individual's gender and age. It explained 11% of the behavioural variance. For anxiety this was 8.7% and for depression 5.6%, including some gender effects. The single-point measurement was less predictive. An enduring high dysregulation profile in childhood showed some predictive value for psychological functioning 4 years later. Hence, it might be helpful in the preventive monitoring of children at risk.

Experimentally determined stiffness and damping of an inherently compensated air squeeze-film damper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cunningham, R. E.

1975-01-01

Values of damping and stiffness were determined experimentally for an externally pressurized, inherently compensated, compressible squeeze-film damper up to excitation frequencies of 36,000 cycles per minute. Experimental damping values were higher than theory predicted at low squeeze numbers and less than predicted at high squeeze numbers. Experimental values of air film stiffness were less than theory predicted at low squeeze numbers and much greater at higher squeeze numbers. Results also indicate sufficient damping to attenuate amplitudes and forces at the critical speed when using three dampers in the flexible support system of a small, lightweight turborotor.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

High-Density Free Fluid on Computed Tomography: a Predictor of Surgical Intervention in Patients with Adhesive Small Bowel Obstruction.

PubMed

Matsushima, Kazuhide; Inaba, Kenji; Dollbaum, Ryan; Cheng, Vincent; Khan, Moazzam; Herr, Keith; Strumwasser, Aaron; Asturias, Sabrina; Dilektasli, Evren; Demetriades, Demetrios

2016-11-01

Patients with adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) often develop intraabdominal free fluid (IFF). While IFF is a finding on abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT) associated with the need for surgical intervention, many patients with IFF can be still managed non-operatively. A previous study suggested that a higher red blood cell count of IFF is highly predictive of strangulated ASBO. We hypothesized that radiodensity in IFF (Hounsfield unit (HU)) on CT would predict the need for surgical intervention. Patients with clinicoradiological evidence of ASBO between January 2009 and December 2013 were identified. In patients with IFF > 3 cm 2 identified on CT, the HU was measured in the largest pocket of IFF. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine a high-density HU threshold. The HU of patients who underwent therapeutic laparotomy was compared with those successfully discharged with non-operative management. A total of 318 patients with ASBO (median age 52 years, 56.0 % male) were identified. Of 111 patients who had IFF on CT, 55.9 % underwent therapeutic laparotomy and 15.3 % required bowel resection. Radiodensity of IFF in the operative group was significantly higher than that in the non-operative group (18.2 vs. 7.0 HU, p < 0.01). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of high-density IFF (>10 HU) to predict the need for surgical intervention were 83.9, 65.3, 75.4, 76.2, and 75.6 %, respectively. High-density IFF on CT was significantly associated with the need for surgical intervention in patients with ASBO. Prospective study to validate the predictive value of high-density IFF on CT will be warranted.

Getting the Best Return on Your Screening Investment: An Analysis of the Suicidal Ideation Questionnaire and Reynolds Adolescent Depression Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutierrez, Peter M.; Osman, Augustine

2009-01-01

Data from 64 adolescent inpatients admitted for serious suicidal ideation, 50 adolescent inpatients admitted following a suicide attempt, and 56 randomly selected high school control participants were used to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the Suicidal Ideation Questionnaire (SIQ)…

Bit selection using field drilling data and mathematical investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momeni, M. S.; Ridha, S.; Hosseini, S. J.; Meyghani, B.; Emamian, S. S.

2018-03-01

A drilling process will not be complete without the usage of a drill bit. Therefore, bit selection is considered to be an important task in drilling optimization process. To select a bit is considered as an important issue in planning and designing a well. This is simply because the cost of drilling bit in total cost is quite high. Thus, to perform this task, aback propagation ANN Model is developed. This is done by training the model using several wells and it is done by the usage of drilling bit records from offset wells. In this project, two models are developed by the usage of the ANN. One is to find predicted IADC bit code and one is to find Predicted ROP. Stage 1 was to find the IADC bit code by using all the given filed data. The output is the Targeted IADC bit code. Stage 2 was to find the Predicted ROP values using the gained IADC bit code in Stage 1. Next is Stage 3 where the Predicted ROP value is used back again in the data set to gain Predicted IADC bit code value. The output is the Predicted IADC bit code. Thus, at the end, there are two models that give the Predicted ROP values and Predicted IADC bit code values.

Expressed Likelihood as Motivator: Creating Value through Engaging What’s Real

PubMed Central

Higgins, E. Tory; Franks, Becca; Pavarini, Dana; Sehnert, Steen; Manley, Katie

2012-01-01

Our research tested two predictions regarding how likelihood can have motivational effects as a function of how a probability is expressed. We predicted that describing the probability of a future event that could be either A or B using the language of high likelihood (“80% A”) rather than low likelihood (“20% B”), i.e., high rather than low expressed likelihood, would make a present activity more real and engaging, as long as the future event had properties relevant to the present activity. We also predicted that strengthening engagement from the high (vs. low) expressed likelihood of a future event would intensify the value of present positive and negative objects (in opposite directions). Both predictions were supported. There was also evidence that this intensification effect from expressed likelihood was independent of the actual probability or valence of the future event. What mattered was whether high versus low likelihood language was used to describe the future event. PMID:23940411

Quantitative Structure – Property Relationship Modeling of Remote Liposome Loading Of Drugs

PubMed Central

Cern, Ahuva; Golbraikh, Alexander; Sedykh, Aleck; Tropsha, Alexander; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Goldblum, Amiram

2012-01-01

Remote loading of liposomes by trans-membrane gradients is used to achieve therapeutically efficacious intra-liposome concentrations of drugs. We have developed Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models of remote liposome loading for a dataset including 60 drugs studied in 366 loading experiments internally or elsewhere. Both experimental conditions and computed chemical descriptors were employed as independent variables to predict the initial drug/lipid ratio (D/L) required to achieve high loading efficiency. Both binary (to distinguish high vs. low initial D/L) and continuous (to predict real D/L values) models were generated using advanced machine learning approaches and five-fold external validation. The external prediction accuracy for binary models was as high as 91–96%; for continuous models the mean coefficient R2 for regression between predicted versus observed values was 0.76–0.79. We conclude that QSPR models can be used to identify candidate drugs expected to have high remote loading capacity while simultaneously optimizing the design of formulation experiments. PMID:22154932

High Mid-Flow to Vital Capacity Ratio and the Response to Exercise in Children With Congenital Heart Disease.

PubMed

Vilozni, Daphna; Alcaneses-Ofek, Maria Rosario; Reuveny, Ronen; Rosenblum, Omer; Inbar, Omri; Katz, Uriel; Ziv-Baran, Tomer; Dubnov-Raz, Gal

2016-12-01

Pulmonary mechanics may play a role in exercise intolerance in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD). A reduced FVC volume could increase the ratio between mid-flow (FEF 25-75% ) and FVC, which is termed high dysanapsis. The relationship between high dysanapsis and the response to maximum-intensity exercise in children with CHD had not yet been studied. The aim of this work was to examine whether high dysanapsis is related to the cardiopulmonary response to maximum-intensity exercise in pediatric subjects with CHD. We retrospectively collected data from 42 children and adolescents with CHD who had either high dysanapsis (ratio >1.2; n = 21) or normal dysanapsis (control) (n = 21) as measured by spirometry. Data extracted from cardiopulmonary exercise test reports included peak values of heart rate, work load, V̇ O 2 , V̇ CO 2 , and ventilation parameters and submaximum values, including ventilatory threshold and ventilatory equivalents. There were no significant differences in demographic and clinical parameters between the groups. Participants with high dysanapsis differed from controls in lower median peak oxygen consumption (65.8% vs 83.0% of predicted, P = .02), peak oxygen pulse (78.6% vs 87.8% of predicted, P = .02), ventilatory threshold (73.8% vs 85.3% of predicted, P = .03), and maximum breathing frequency (106% vs 121% of predicted, P = .035). In the high dysanapsis group only, median peak ventilation and tidal volume were significantly lower than 80% of predicted values. In children and adolescents with corrected CHD, high dysanapsis was associated with a lower ventilatory capacity and reduced aerobic fitness, which may indicate respiratory muscle impairments. Copyright © 2016 by Daedalus Enterprises.

High-definition endoscopy with digital chromoendoscopy for histologic prediction of distal colorectal polyps.

PubMed

Rath, Timo; Tontini, Gian E; Nägel, Andreas; Vieth, Michael; Zopf, Steffen; Günther, Claudia; Hoffman, Arthur; Neurath, Markus F; Neumann, Helmut

2015-10-22

Distal diminutive colorectal polyps are common and accurate endoscopic prediction of hyperplastic or adenomatous polyp histology could reduce procedural time, costs and potential risks associated with the resection. Within this study we assessed whether digital chromoendoscopy can accurately predict the histology of distal diminutive colorectal polyps according to the ASGE PIVI statement. In this prospective cohort study, 224 consecutive patients undergoing screening or surveillance colonoscopy were included. Real time histology of 121 diminutive distal colorectal polyps was evaluated using high-definition endoscopy with digital chromoendoscopy and the accuracy of predicting histology with digital chromoendoscopy was assessed. The overall accuracy of digital chromoendoscopy for prediction of adenomatous polyp histology was 90.1 %. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were 93.3, 88.7, 88.7, and 93.2 %, respectively. In high-confidence predictions, the accuracy increased to 96.3 % while sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated as 98.1, 94.4, 94.5, and 98.1 %, respectively. Surveillance intervals with digital chromoendoscopy were correctly predicted with >90 % accuracy. High-definition endoscopy in combination with digital chromoendoscopy allowed real-time in vivo prediction of distal colorectal polyp histology and is accurate enough to leave distal colorectal polyps in place without resection or to resect and discard them without pathologic assessment. This approach has the potential to reduce costs and risks associated with the redundant removal of diminutive colorectal polyps. ClinicalTrials NCT02217449.

Predictive value of serum sST2 in preschool wheezers for development of asthma with high FeNO.

PubMed

Ketelaar, M E; van de Kant, K D; Dijk, F N; Klaassen, E M; Grotenboer, N S; Nawijn, M C; Dompeling, E; Koppelman, G H

2017-11-01

Wheezing is common in childhood. However, current prediction models of pediatric asthma have only modest accuracy. Novel biomarkers and definition of subphenotypes may improve asthma prediction. Interleukin-1-receptor-like-1 (IL1RL1 or ST2) is a well-replicated asthma gene and associates with eosinophilia. We investigated whether serum sST2 predicts asthma and asthma with elevated exhaled NO (FeNO), compared to the commonly used Asthma Prediction Index (API). Using logistic regression modeling, we found that serum sST2 levels in 2-3 years-old wheezers do not predict doctors' diagnosed asthma at age 6 years. Instead, sST2 predicts a subphenotype of asthma characterized by increased levels of FeNO, a marker for eosinophilic airway inflammation. Herein, sST2 improved the predictive value of the API (AUC=0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.84), but had also significant predictive value on its own (AUC=0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.79). Our study indicates that sST2 in preschool wheezers has predictive value for the development of eosinophilic airway inflammation in asthmatic children at school age. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

USE OF SCORE AND CEREBROSPINAL FLUID LACTATE DOSAGE IN DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS OF BACTERIAL AND ASEPTIC MENINGITIS.

PubMed

Pires, Frederico Ribeiro; Franco, Andréia Christine Bonotto Farias; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Troster, Eduardo Juan

2017-01-01

To evaluate Bacterial Meningitis Score (BMS) on its own and in association with Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) lactate dosage in order to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis. Children diagnosed with meningitis at a tertiary hospital between January/2011 and December/2014 were selected. All data were obtained upon admission. BMS was applied and included: CSF Gram staining (2 points); CSF neutrophil count ≥1,000 cells/mm3 (1 point); CSF protein ≥80 mg/dL (1 point); peripheral blood neutrophil count ≥10,000 cells/mm3 (1 point) and seizures upon/before arrival (1 point). Cutoff value for CSF lactate was ≥30 mg/dL. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of several BMS cutoffs and BMS associated with high CSF lactate were evaluated for prediction of bacterial meningitis. Among 439 eligible patients, 94 did not have all data available to complete the score, and 345 patients were included: 7 in bacterial meningitis group and 338 in aseptic meningitis group. As predictive factors of bacterial meningitis, BMS ≥1 had 100% sensitivity (95%CI 47.3-100), 64.2% specificity (58.8-100) and 100% negative predictive value (97.5-100); BMS ≥2 or BMS ≥1 associated with high CSF lactate also showed 100% sensitivity (47.3-100); but 98.5% specificity (96.6-99.5) and 100% negative predictive value (98.3-100). 2 point BMS in association with CSF lactate dosage had the same sensitivity and negative predictive value, with increased specificity for diagnosis of bacterial meningitis when compared with 1-point BMS.

Combining first-principles and data modeling for the accurate prediction of the refractive index of organic polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afzal, Mohammad Atif Faiz; Cheng, Chong; Hachmann, Johannes

2018-06-01

Organic materials with a high index of refraction (RI) are attracting considerable interest due to their potential application in optic and optoelectronic devices. However, most of these applications require an RI value of 1.7 or larger, while typical carbon-based polymers only exhibit values in the range of 1.3-1.5. This paper introduces an efficient computational protocol for the accurate prediction of RI values in polymers to facilitate in silico studies that can guide the discovery and design of next-generation high-RI materials. Our protocol is based on the Lorentz-Lorenz equation and is parametrized by the polarizability and number density values of a given candidate compound. In the proposed scheme, we compute the former using first-principles electronic structure theory and the latter using an approximation based on van der Waals volumes. The critical parameter in the number density approximation is the packing fraction of the bulk polymer, for which we have devised a machine learning model. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed RI protocol by testing its predictions against the experimentally known RI values of 112 optical polymers. Our approach to combine first-principles and data modeling emerges as both a successful and a highly economical path to determining the RI values for a wide range of organic polymers.

fRMSDPred: Predicting Local RMSD Between Structural Fragments Using Sequence Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-04

machine learning approaches for estimating the RMSD value of a pair of protein fragments. These estimated fragment-level RMSD values can be used to construct the alignment, assess the quality of an alignment, and identify high-quality alignment segments. We present algorithms to solve this fragment-level RMSD prediction problem using a supervised learning framework based on support vector regression and classification that incorporates protein profiles, predicted secondary structure, effective information encoding schemes, and novel second-order pairwise exponential kernel

Genomic selection in plant breeding.

PubMed

Newell, Mark A; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2014-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) is a method to predict the genetic value of selection candidates based on the genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) predicted from high-density markers positioned throughout the genome. Unlike marker-assisted selection, the GEBV is based on all markers including both minor and major marker effects. Thus, the GEBV may capture more of the genetic variation for the particular trait under selection.

A microRNA-based prediction model for lymph node metastasis in hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Zhang, Li; Xiang, Zuo-Lin; Zeng, Zhao-Chong; Fan, Jia; Tang, Zhao-You; Zhao, Xiao-Mei

2016-01-19

We developed an efficient microRNA (miRNA) model that could predict the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We first evaluated a training cohort of 192 HCC patients after hepatectomy and found five LNM associated predictive factors: vascular invasion, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, miR-145, miR-31, and miR-92a. The five statistically independent factors were used to develop a predictive model. The predictive value of the miRNA-based model was confirmed in a validation cohort of 209 consecutive HCC patients. The prediction model was scored for LNM risk from 0 to 8. The cutoff value 4 was used to distinguish high-risk and low-risk groups. The model sensitivity and specificity was 69.6 and 80.2%, respectively, during 5 years in the validation cohort. And the area under the curve (AUC) for the miRNA-based prognostic model was 0.860. The 5-year positive and negative predictive values of the model in the validation cohort were 30.3 and 95.5%, respectively. Cox regression analysis revealed that the LNM hazard ratio of the high-risk versus low-risk groups was 11.751 (95% CI, 5.110-27.021; P < 0.001) in the validation cohort. In conclusion, the miRNA-based model is reliable and accurate for the early prediction of LNM in patients with HCC.

The Prediction of Empathetic Tendency and Characteristic Trait of Collaboration on Humane Values in Secondary Education Students and the Examining to Those Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dereli, Esra; Aypay, Ayse

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among the empathic tendency, collaboration character trait, human values of student high school and whether high school students' empathic tendency, character trait of collaboration, human values differ based on qualifications of personnel ( gender, class levels, mother and father…

Task Values and Ability Beliefs as Predictors of High School Literacy Choices: A Developmental Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Durik, Amanda M.; Vida, Mina; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

2005-01-01

This study examines how competence beliefs and task values predict high school achievement choices related to literacy. Students' task beliefs (self-concept of ability, intrinsic value, and importance) about reading in the 4th grade and English in the 10th grade were tracked over time. Task beliefs, school performance, and gender were used to…

The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

PubMed Central

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival. PMID:23874549

Determination of the diagnostic value of the Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in predicting difficult intubation: A prospective descriptive study.

PubMed

Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Soleimanpour, Hassan; Golzari, Samad Ej; Nejabatian, Arezoo; Pourlak, Tannaz; Amani, Masoumeh; Hajmohammadi, Saeed; Hosseinzadeh, Hamzeh; Esfanjani, Robab Mehdizadeh

2017-02-01

Difficult intubation is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity related to anesthesia. We decided to evaluate the value of Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in the prediction of difficult intubation. In a prospective descriptive study, data from 132 patients who were candidates for elective maxillofacial surgeries under general anesthesia were gathered. Facial Angles were measured by a maxillofacial surgeon according to cephalometry. The Modified Mallampati Score and Upper Lip Bite Test were first measured by an anesthesiologist and then another anesthesiologist was assigned to record the Cormack and Lehane score during the intubation. Grades 3 and 4 were considered as difficult intubation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index were calculated for all tests. Difficult intubation was reported in 12% of the patients. Facial Angle≤82.5° can predict difficult intubation with 87.5% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity. Among the three tests, a high Modified Mallampati Score had the highest specificity (94.5%) and a high Modified Mallampati Score and Facial Angle (FA≤82.5°) had the highest sensitivity (87.5%). The highest NPV, sensitivity and Youden index were observed when using Facial Angle with the Modified Mallampati Score or with Upper Lip Bite Test. Facial Angle has a high sensitivity, NPV and Youden index for the prediction of difficult intubation, but the best result is achieved when Facial Angle is used in combination with either the Modified Mallampati Score or Upper Lip Bit Test. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Arterial spin labeling-based Z-maps have high specificity and positive predictive value for neurodegenerative dementia compared to FDG-PET.

PubMed

Fällmar, David; Haller, Sven; Lilja, Johan; Danfors, Torsten; Kilander, Lena; Tolboom, Nelleke; Egger, Karl; Kellner, Elias; Croon, Philip M; Verfaillie, Sander C J; van Berckel, Bart N M; Ossenkoppele, Rik; Barkhof, Frederik; Larsson, Elna-Marie

2017-10-01

Cerebral perfusion analysis based on arterial spin labeling (ASL) MRI has been proposed as an alternative to FDG-PET in patients with neurodegenerative disease. Z-maps show normal distribution values relating an image to a database of controls. They are routinely used for FDG-PET to demonstrate disease-specific patterns of hypometabolism at the individual level. This study aimed to compare the performance of Z-maps based on ASL to FDG-PET. Data were combined from two separate sites, each cohort consisting of patients with Alzheimer's disease (n = 18 + 7), frontotemporal dementia (n = 12 + 8) and controls (n = 9 + 29). Subjects underwent pseudocontinuous ASL and FDG-PET. Z-maps were created for each subject and modality. Four experienced physicians visually assessed the 166 Z-maps in random order, blinded to modality and diagnosis. Discrimination of patients versus controls using ASL-based Z-maps yielded high specificity (84%) and positive predictive value (80%), but significantly lower sensitivity compared to FDG-PET-based Z-maps (53% vs. 96%, p < 0.001). Among true-positive cases, correct diagnoses were made in 76% (ASL) and 84% (FDG-PET) (p = 0.168). ASL-based Z-maps can be used for visual assessment of neurodegenerative dementia with high specificity and positive predictive value, but with inferior sensitivity compared to FDG-PET. • ASL-based Z-maps yielded high specificity and positive predictive value in neurodegenerative dementia. • ASL-based Z-maps had significantly lower sensitivity compared to FDG-PET-based Z-maps. • FDG-PET might be reserved for ASL-negative cases where clinical suspicion persists. • Findings were similar at two study sites.

Experimental and predicted cavitation performance of an 80.6 deg helical inducer in high temperature water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kovich, G.

1972-01-01

The cavitating performance of a stainless steel 80.6 degree flat-plate helical inducer was investigated in water over a range of liquid temperatures and flow coefficients. A semi-empirical prediction method was used to compare predicted values of required net positive suction head in water with experimental values obtained in water. Good agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental data in water. The required net positive suction head in water decreased with increasing temperature and increased with flow coefficient, similar to that observed for a like inducer in liquid hydrogen.

Modeling of exposure to carbon monoxide in fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cagliostro, D. E.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to predict carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in regions of the body for short exposures to carbon monoxide levels expected during escape from aircraft fires. The model includes the respiratory and circulatory dynamics of absorption and distribution of carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin. Predictions of carboxyhemoglobin concentrations are compared to experimental values obtained for human exposures to constant high carbon monoxide levels. Predictions are within 20% of experimental values. For short exposure times, transient concentration effects are predicted. The effect of stress is studied and found to increase carboxyhemoglobin levels substantially compared to a rest state.

South African and international reference values for lung function and its relationship with blood pressure in Africans.

PubMed

van Rooyen, Yolandi; Huisman, Hugo W; Schutte, Aletta E; Eloff, Fritz C; Du Plessis, Johan L; Kruger, Annamarie; Van Rooyen, Johannes M

2015-06-01

In South Africa respiratory diseases are highly prevalent, with cardiovascular disease being a manifestation. However, international reference values for lung function are commonly used, which may not be appropriate to correctly identify reduced lung function. An inverse relationship exists between lung function and blood pressure (BP) but is not investigated extensively in black South Africans. We included 2010 Africans from the PURE (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology) study (aged > 35 years) in the North West Province. Spirometry was performed and predicted values for forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were calculated from South African, European and United States prediction equations. With the exception of the European predicted values, all other predicted mean FEV1 and FVC were above 80%. South African reference values displayed the highest percentages of the predicted values for FEV1 and FVC (87.9 and 99.7%, respectively.) BP increased from quintiles five to one for both FEV1 and FVC, (p for trend <0.001). After adjustment the differences remained (p<0.05). South African reference values yielded higher percentages of predicted FEV1 and FVC values than European and US equations suggesting that South African prediction equations may be more useful when investigating lung function in black South Africans. Elevated BP is related to reduced lung function, highlighting the importance in managing both respiratory- and cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2015 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1.5-Tesla Multiparametric-Magnetic Resonance Imaging for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer.

PubMed

Popita, Cristian; Popita, Anca Raluca; Sitar-Taut, Adela; Petrut, Bogdan; Fetica, Bogdan; Coman, Ioan

2017-01-01

Multiparametric-magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) is the main imaging modality used for prostate cancer detection. The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of mp-MRI at 1.5-Tesla (1.5-T) for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer. In this ethical board approved prospective study, 39 patients with suspected prostate cancer were included. Patients with a history of positive prostate biopsy and patients treated for prostate cancer were excluded. All patients were examined at 1.5-T MRI, before standard transrectal ultrasonography-guided biopsy. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for mp-MRI were 100%, 73.68%, 80% and 100%, respectively. Our results showed that 1.5 T mp-MRI has a high sensitivity for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer and high negative predictive value in order to rule out significant disease.

[Evaluation of thermal comfort in a student population: predictive value of an integrated index (Fanger's predicted mean value].

PubMed

Catenacci, G; Terzi, R; Marcaletti, G; Tringali, S

1989-01-01

Practical applications and predictive values of a thermal comfort index (Fanger's PRV) were verified on a sample school population (1236 subjects) by studying the relationships between thermal sensations (subjective analysis), determined by means of an individual questionnaire, and the values of thermal comfort index (objective analysis) obtained by calculating the PMV index individually in the subjects under study. In homogeneous conditions of metabolic expenditure rate and thermal impedence from clothing, significant differences were found between the two kinds of analyses. At 22 degrees C mean radiant and operative temperature, the PMV values averaged 0 and the percentage of subjects who experienced thermal comfort did not exceed 60%. The high level of subjects who were dissatisfied with their environmental thermal conditions confirms the doubts regarding the use of the PMV index as a predictive indicator of thermal comfort, especially considering that the negative answers were not homogeneous nor attributable to the small thermal fluctuations (less than 0.5 degree C) measured in the classrooms.

Life test results for the advanced very high resolution radiometer scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lenz, James

1996-01-01

The following paper reports the results obtained during a 3.33-year life test on the TIROS Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer/3 (AVHRR/3) Scanner. The bearing drag torque and lubricant loss over life will be compared to predicted values developed through modeling. The condition of the lubricant at the end of the test will be described and a theory presented to explain the results obtained. The differences (if any) in the predicted and measured values of drag torque and lubricant loss will be discussed and possible reasons for these examined.

Apparent diffusion coefficient value as a biomarker reflecting morphological and biological features of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Bae, Hyeyeol; Yoshida, Soichiro; Matsuoka, Yoh; Nakajima, Hiroshi; Ito, Eisaku; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Oya, Miyako; Nakayama, Takayuki; Takeshita, Hideki; Kijima, Toshiki; Ishioka, Junichiro; Numao, Noboru; Koga, Fumitaka; Saito, Kazutaka; Akashi, Takumi; Fujii, Yasuhisa; Kihara, Kazunori

2014-03-01

To assess whether there is an association between the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value and the pathological characteristics of prostate cancer. The study cohort consisted of 29 consecutive patients with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy. All patients underwent diffusion-weighted MRI before the prostate biopsy. In 42 tumor foci, the associations of the ADC values with the clinicopathological characteristics and Ki-67 labeling index (LI) were analyzed. High-grade cancers (Gleason score [GS] ≥ 4 + 3), larger cancers (maximum diameter (MD) ≥ 16 mm), and highly proliferating cancers (Ki-67 LI ≥ 4.43 %) had significantly lower ADC values, respectively (P < .001, P = .008, and P = .044, respectively). There was no significant difference in ADC value according to age, prostate-specific antigen, presence of extra-prostatic extension, and intra-tumoral stroma proportion. Multivariate analysis showed that GS, Ki-67 LI, and MD had independent and significant correlations with ADC value (P < .001, P = .006, and P = .002, respectively). Low ADC tumors (<0.52 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s) are likely to be high-grade cancer foci compared with high ADC tumors (relative risk: 65.2). The sensitivity and specificity of the ADC value to predict high-grade cancer foci are 81.8 and 93.5 %, respectively. A low ADC value reflects the morphological and biological features of prostate cancer. Analyzing the ADC value may make it possible to more precisely predict the cancer aggressiveness of each focus before treatment.

Predictive value of first fasting plasma glucose compared with admission plasma glucose for undiagnosed diabetes in a stable cardiology population.

PubMed

Wen, Zhu-zhi; Zhang, Xin-mei; Mai, Zun; Geng, Deng-feng; Wang, Jing-feng

2012-09-01

The study compared the predictive value of admission plasma glucose (APG) and first fasting plasma glucose (FPG) in stratifying patients meriting an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Characteristics of APG, FPG and OGTT 2-hour glucose as well as other blood measurements, physical examinations and medical information were assessed in 994 patients without known diabetes. The prevalences of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance were 24.6% and 37.9%, according to an OGTT, respectively. The first FPG demonstrated stronger predictive value in diagnosing diabetes than APG did both in overall and in patients with less clinical value. Compared to the first FPG, APG provided less value to coronary artery disease, hypertension and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein for diabetes screening. The first FPG exerted more predictive value than APG did and was still a preferable reference prior to APG in stratifying patients for undiagnosed diabetes by an OGTT. Copyright © 2012 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the High Risk Groups for Suicide: A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

AMINI, Payam; AHMADINIA, Hasan; POOROLAJAL, Jalal; MOQADDASI AMIRI, Mohammad

2016-01-01

Background: We aimed to assess the high-risk group for suicide using different classification methods includinglogistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM). Methods: We used the dataset of a study conducted to predict risk factors of completed suicide in Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, in 2010. To evaluate the high-risk groups for suicide, LR, SVM, DT and ANN were performed. The applied methods were compared using sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value, negative predicted value, accuracy and the area under curve. Cochran-Q test was implied to check differences in proportion among methods. To assess the association between the observed and predicted values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were calculated. Results: Gender, age, and job were the most important risk factors for fatal suicide attempts in common for four methods. SVM method showed the highest accuracy 0.68 and 0.67 for training and testing sample, respectively. However, this method resulted in the highest specificity (0.67 for training and 0.68 for testing sample) and the highest sensitivity for training sample (0.85), but the lowest sensitivity for the testing sample (0.53). Cochran-Q test resulted in differences between proportions in different methods (P<0.001). The association of SVM predictions and observed values, Ø coefficient, contingency coefficient, and Kendall tau-b were 0.239, 0.232 and 0.239, respectively. Conclusion: SVM had the best performance to classify fatal suicide attempts comparing to DT, LR and ANN. PMID:27957463

[Optimal extraction of effective constituents from Aralia elata by central composite design and response surface methodology].

PubMed

Lv, Shao-Wa; Liu, Dong; Hu, Pan-Pan; Ye, Xu-Yan; Xiao, Hong-Bin; Kuang, Hai-Xue

2010-03-01

To optimize the process of extracting effective constituents from Aralia elata by response surface methodology. The independent variables were ethanol concentration, reflux time and solvent fold, the dependent variable was extraction rate of total saponins in Aralia elata. Linear or no-linear mathematic models were used to estimate the relationship between independent and dependent variables. Response surface methodology was used to optimize the process of extraction. The prediction was carried out through comparing the observed and predicted values. Regression coefficient of binomial fitting complex model was as high as 0.9617, the optimum conditions of extraction process were 70% ethanol, 2.5 hours for reflux, 20-fold solvent and 3 times for extraction. The bias between observed and predicted values was -2.41%. It shows the optimum model is highly predictive.

Predicting the solubility and lability of Zn, Cd, and Pb in soils from a minespoil-contaminated catchment by stable isotopic exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzouk, E. R.; Chenery, S. R.; Young, S. D.

2013-12-01

The Rookhope catchment of Weardale, England, has a diverse legacy of contaminated soils due to extensive lead mining activity over four centuries. We measured the isotopically exchangeable content of Pb, Cd and Zn (E-values) in a large representative subset of the catchment soils (n = 246) using stable isotope dilution. All three metals displayed a wide range of %E-values (c. 1-100%) but relative lability followed the sequence Cd > Pb > Zn. A refinement of the stable isotope dilution approach also enabled detection of non-reactive metal contained within suspended sub-micron (<0.22 μm) colloidal particles (SCP-metal). For most soils, the presence of non-labile SCP-metal caused only minor over-estimation of E-values (<2%) but the effect was greater for soils with particularly large humus or carbonate contents. Approximately 80%, 53% and 66% of the variability in Zn, Cd and Pb %E-values (respectively) could be explained by pH, loss on ignition and total metal content. E-values were affected by the presence of ore minerals at high metal contents leading to an inconsistent trend in the relationship between %E-value and soil metal concentration. Metal solubility, in the soil suspensions used to measure E-values, was predicted using the WHAM geochemical speciation model (versions VI and VII). The use of total and isotopically exchangeable metal as alternative input variables was compared; the latter provided significantly better predictions of solubility, especially in the case of Zn. Lead solubility was less well predicted by either version of WHAM, with over-prediction at low pH and under-prediction at high soil pH values. Quantify the isotopically exchangeable fractions of Zn, Cd and Pb (E-values), and assess their local and regional variability, using multi-element stable isotope dilution, in a diverse range of soil ecosystems within the catchment of an old Pb/Zn mining area. Assess the controlling influences of soil properties on metal lability and develop predictive algorithms for metal lability in the contaminated catchment based on simple soil properties (such as pH, organic matter (LOI), and total metal content). Examine the incidence of non-isotopically-exchangeable metal held within suspended colloidal particles (SCP-metal) in filtered soil solutions (<0.22 μm) by comparing E-values from isotopic abundance in solutions equilibrated with soil and in a resin phase equilibrated with the separated solution. Assess the ability of a geochemical speciation model, WHAM(VII), to predict metal solubility using isotopically exchangeable metal as an input variable.

The effects of co-morbidity in defining major depression subtypes associated with long-term course and severity.

PubMed

Wardenaar, K J; van Loo, H M; Cai, T; Fava, M; Gruber, M J; Li, J; de Jonge, P; Nierenberg, A A; Petukhova, M V; Rose, S; Sampson, N A; Schoevers, R A; Wilcox, M A; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Bunting, B; Florescu, S E; Fukao, A; Gureje, O; Hu, C; Huang, Y Q; Karam, A N; Levinson, D; Medina Mora, M E; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Taib, N I; Viana, M C; Xavier, M; Zarkov, Z; Kessler, R C

2014-11-01

Although variation in the long-term course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing symptom subtype distinctions, recent research suggests that prediction can be improved by using machine learning methods. However, it is not known whether these distinctions can be refined by added information about co-morbid conditions. The current report presents results on this question. Data came from 8261 respondents with lifetime DSM-IV MDD in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Outcomes included four retrospectively reported measures of persistence/severity of course (years in episode; years in chronic episodes; hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Machine learning methods (regression tree analysis; lasso, ridge and elastic net penalized regression) followed by k-means cluster analysis were used to augment previously detected subtypes with information about prior co-morbidity to predict these outcomes. Predicted values were strongly correlated across outcomes. Cluster analysis of predicted values found three clusters with consistently high, intermediate or low values. The high-risk cluster (32.4% of cases) accounted for 56.6-72.9% of high persistence, high chronicity, hospitalization and disability. This high-risk cluster had both higher sensitivity and likelihood ratio positive (LR+; relative proportions of cases in the high-risk cluster versus other clusters having the adverse outcomes) than in a parallel analysis that excluded measures of co-morbidity as predictors. Although the results using the retrospective data reported here suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made with machine learning and clustering across multiple indicators of illness persistence/severity, replication with prospective data is needed to confirm this preliminary conclusion.

Prediction of breast cancer risk with volatile biomarkers in breath.

PubMed

Phillips, Michael; Cataneo, Renee N; Cruz-Ramos, Jose Alfonso; Huston, Jan; Ornelas, Omar; Pappas, Nadine; Pathak, Sonali

2018-03-23

Human breath contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are biomarkers of breast cancer. We investigated the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of breath VOC biomarkers as indicators of breast cancer risk. We employed ultra-clean breath collection balloons to collect breath samples from 54 women with biopsy-proven breast cancer and 124 cancer-free controls. Breath VOCs were analyzed with gas chromatography (GC) combined with either mass spectrometry (GC MS) or surface acoustic wave detection (GC SAW). Chromatograms were randomly assigned to a training set or a validation set. Monte Carlo analysis identified significant breath VOC biomarkers of breast cancer in the training set, and these biomarkers were incorporated into a multivariate algorithm to predict disease in the validation set. In the unsplit dataset, the predictive algorithms generated discriminant function (DF) values that varied with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV. Using GC MS, test accuracy = 90% (area under curve of receiver operating characteristic in unsplit dataset) and cross-validated accuracy = 77%. Using GC SAW, test accuracy = 86% and cross-validated accuracy = 74%. With both assays, a low DF value was associated with a low risk of breast cancer (NPV > 99.9%). A high DF value was associated with a high risk of breast cancer and PPV rising to 100%. Analysis of breath VOC samples collected with ultra-clean balloons detected biomarkers that accurately predicted risk of breast cancer.

Tract-specific fractional anisotropy predicts cognitive outcome in a community sample of middle-aged participants with white matter lesions

PubMed Central

Soriano-Raya, Juan José; Miralbell, Júlia; López-Cancio, Elena; Bargalló, Núria; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Barrios, Maite; Cáceres, Cynthia; Toran, Pere; Alzamora, Maite; Dávalos, Antoni; Mataró, Maria

2014-01-01

Cerebral white matter lesions (WMLs) have been consistently related to cognitive dysfunction but the role of white matter (WM) damage in cognitive impairment is not fully determined. Diffusion tensor imaging is a promising tool to explain impaired cognition related to WMLs. We investigated the separate association of high-grade periventricular hyperintensities (PVHs) and deep white matter hyperintensities (DWMHs) with fractional anisotropy (FA) in middle-aged individuals. We also assessed the predictive value to cognition of FA within specific WM tracts associated with high-grade WMLs. One hundred participants from the Barcelona-AsIA Neuropsychology Study were divided into groups based on low- and high-grade WMLs. Voxel-by-voxel FA were compared between groups, with separate analyses for high-grade PVHs and DWMHs. The mean FA within areas showing differences between groups was extracted in each tract for linear regression analyses. Participants with high-grade PVHs and participants with high-grade DWMHs showed lower FA in different areas of specific tracts. Areas showing decreased FA in high-grade DWMHs predicted lower cognition, whereas areas with decreased FA in high-grade PVHs did not. The predictive value to cognition of specific WM tracts supports the involvement of cortico-subcortical circuits in cognitive deficits only in DWMHs. PMID:24549185

Tract-specific fractional anisotropy predicts cognitive outcome in a community sample of middle-aged participants with white matter lesions.

PubMed

Soriano-Raya, Juan José; Miralbell, Júlia; López-Cancio, Elena; Bargalló, Núria; Arenillas, Juan Francisco; Barrios, Maite; Cáceres, Cynthia; Toran, Pere; Alzamora, Maite; Dávalos, Antoni; Mataró, Maria

2014-05-01

Cerebral white matter lesions (WMLs) have been consistently related to cognitive dysfunction but the role of white matter (WM) damage in cognitive impairment is not fully determined. Diffusion tensor imaging is a promising tool to explain impaired cognition related to WMLs. We investigated the separate association of high-grade periventricular hyperintensities (PVHs) and deep white matter hyperintensities (DWMHs) with fractional anisotropy (FA) in middle-aged individuals. We also assessed the predictive value to cognition of FA within specific WM tracts associated with high-grade WMLs. One hundred participants from the Barcelona-AsIA Neuropsychology Study were divided into groups based on low- and high-grade WMLs. Voxel-by-voxel FA were compared between groups, with separate analyses for high-grade PVHs and DWMHs. The mean FA within areas showing differences between groups was extracted in each tract for linear regression analyses. Participants with high-grade PVHs and participants with high-grade DWMHs showed lower FA in different areas of specific tracts. Areas showing decreased FA in high-grade DWMHs predicted lower cognition, whereas areas with decreased FA in high-grade PVHs did not. The predictive value to cognition of specific WM tracts supports the involvement of cortico-subcortical circuits in cognitive deficits only in DWMHs.

High-Resolution Three-Dimensional Computed Tomography for Assessing Complications Related to Intrathecal Drug Delivery.

PubMed

Morgalla, Matthias; Fortunato, Marcos; Azam, Ala; Tatagiba, Marcos; Lepski, Guillherme

2016-07-01

The assessment of the functionality of intrathecal drug delivery (IDD) systems remains difficult and time-consuming. Catheter-related problems are still very common, and sometimes difficult to diagnose. The aim of the present study is to investigate the accuracy of high-resolution three-dimensional computed tomography (CT) in order to detect catheter-related pump dysfunction. An observational, retrospective investigation. Academic medical center in Germany. We used high-resolution three dimensional (3D) computed tomography with volume rendering technique (VRT) or fluoroscopy and conventional axial-CT to assess IDD-related complications in 51 patients from our institution who had IDD systems implanted for the treatment of chronic pain or spasticity. Twelve patients (23.5%) presented a total of 22 complications. The main type of complication in our series was catheter-related (50%), followed by pump failure, infection, and inappropriate refilling. Fluoroscopy and conventional CT were used in 12 cases. High-resolution 3D CT VRT scan was used in 35 instances with suspected yet unclear complications. Using 3D-CT (VRT) the sensitivity was 58.93% - 100% (CI 95%) and the specificity 87.54% - 100% (CI 95%).The positive predictive value was 58.93% - 100% (CI 95%) and the negative predictive value: 87.54% - 100% (CI 95%).Fluoroscopy and axial CT as a combined diagnostic tool had a sensitivity of 8.3% - 91.7% (CI 95%) and a specificity of 62.9% - 100% (CI 95%). The positive predictive value was 19.29% - 100% (CI 95%) and the negative predictive value: 44.43% - 96.89% (CI 95%). This study is limited by its observational design and the small number of cases. High-resolution 3D CT VRT is a non- invasive method that can identify IDD-related complications with more precision than axial CT and fluoroscopy.

Quantitative structure-property relationship modeling of remote liposome loading of drugs.

PubMed

Cern, Ahuva; Golbraikh, Alexander; Sedykh, Aleck; Tropsha, Alexander; Barenholz, Yechezkel; Goldblum, Amiram

2012-06-10

Remote loading of liposomes by trans-membrane gradients is used to achieve therapeutically efficacious intra-liposome concentrations of drugs. We have developed Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) models of remote liposome loading for a data set including 60 drugs studied in 366 loading experiments internally or elsewhere. Both experimental conditions and computed chemical descriptors were employed as independent variables to predict the initial drug/lipid ratio (D/L) required to achieve high loading efficiency. Both binary (to distinguish high vs. low initial D/L) and continuous (to predict real D/L values) models were generated using advanced machine learning approaches and 5-fold external validation. The external prediction accuracy for binary models was as high as 91-96%; for continuous models the mean coefficient R(2) for regression between predicted versus observed values was 0.76-0.79. We conclude that QSPR models can be used to identify candidate drugs expected to have high remote loading capacity while simultaneously optimizing the design of formulation experiments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Target and Tissue Selectivity Prediction by Integrated Mechanistic Pharmacokinetic-Target Binding and Quantitative Structure Activity Modeling.

PubMed

Vlot, Anna H C; de Witte, Wilhelmus E A; Danhof, Meindert; van der Graaf, Piet H; van Westen, Gerard J P; de Lange, Elizabeth C M

2017-12-04

Selectivity is an important attribute of effective and safe drugs, and prediction of in vivo target and tissue selectivity would likely improve drug development success rates. However, a lack of understanding of the underlying (pharmacological) mechanisms and availability of directly applicable predictive methods complicates the prediction of selectivity. We explore the value of combining physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling with quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling to predict the influence of the target dissociation constant (K D ) and the target dissociation rate constant on target and tissue selectivity. The K D values of CB1 ligands in the ChEMBL database are predicted by QSAR random forest (RF) modeling for the CB1 receptor and known off-targets (TRPV1, mGlu5, 5-HT1a). Of these CB1 ligands, rimonabant, CP-55940, and Δ 8 -tetrahydrocanabinol, one of the active ingredients of cannabis, were selected for simulations of target occupancy for CB1, TRPV1, mGlu5, and 5-HT1a in three brain regions, to illustrate the principles of the combined PBPK-QSAR modeling. Our combined PBPK and target binding modeling demonstrated that the optimal values of the K D and k off for target and tissue selectivity were dependent on target concentration and tissue distribution kinetics. Interestingly, if the target concentration is high and the perfusion of the target site is low, the optimal K D value is often not the lowest K D value, suggesting that optimization towards high drug-target affinity can decrease the benefit-risk ratio. The presented integrative structure-pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling provides an improved understanding of tissue and target selectivity.

USE OF SCORE AND CEREBROSPINAL FLUID LACTATE DOSAGE IN DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS OF BACTERIAL AND ASEPTIC MENINGITIS

PubMed Central

Pires, Frederico Ribeiro; Franco, Andréia Christine Bonotto Farias; Gilio, Alfredo Elias; Troster, Eduardo Juan

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate Bacterial Meningitis Score (BMS) on its own and in association with Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) lactate dosage in order to distinguish bacterial from aseptic meningitis. Methods: Children diagnosed with meningitis at a tertiary hospital between January/2011 and December/2014 were selected. All data were obtained upon admission. BMS was applied and included: CSF Gram staining (2 points); CSF neutrophil count ≥1,000 cells/mm3 (1 point); CSF protein ≥80 mg/dL (1 point); peripheral blood neutrophil count ≥10,000 cells/mm3 (1 point) and seizures upon/before arrival (1 point). Cutoff value for CSF lactate was ≥30 mg/dL. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of several BMS cutoffs and BMS associated with high CSF lactate were evaluated for prediction of bacterial meningitis. Results: Among 439 eligible patients, 94 did not have all data available to complete the score, and 345 patients were included: 7 in bacterial meningitis group and 338 in aseptic meningitis group. As predictive factors of bacterial meningitis, BMS ≥1 had 100% sensitivity (95%CI 47.3-100), 64.2% specificity (58.8-100) and 100% negative predictive value (97.5-100); BMS ≥2 or BMS ≥1 associated with high CSF lactate also showed 100% sensitivity (47.3-100); but 98.5% specificity (96.6-99.5) and 100% negative predictive value (98.3-100). Conclusions: 2 point BMS in association with CSF lactate dosage had the same sensitivity and negative predictive value, with increased specificity for diagnosis of bacterial meningitis when compared with 1-point BMS. PMID:29185620

Accuracy of genomic breeding values in multibreed beef cattle populations derived from deregressed breeding values and phenotypes.

PubMed

Weber, K L; Thallman, R M; Keele, J W; Snelling, W M; Bennett, G L; Smith, T P L; McDaneld, T G; Allan, M F; Van Eenennaam, A L; Kuehn, L A

2012-12-01

Genomic selection involves the assessment of genetic merit through prediction equations that allocate genetic variation with dense marker genotypes. It has the potential to provide accurate breeding values for selection candidates at an early age and facilitate selection for expensive or difficult to measure traits. Accurate across-breed prediction would allow genomic selection to be applied on a larger scale in the beef industry, but the limited availability of large populations for the development of prediction equations has delayed researchers from providing genomic predictions that are accurate across multiple beef breeds. In this study, the accuracy of genomic predictions for 6 growth and carcass traits were derived and evaluated using 2 multibreed beef cattle populations: 3,358 crossbred cattle of the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center Germplasm Evaluation Program (USMARC_GPE) and 1,834 high accuracy bull sires of the 2,000 Bull Project (2000_BULL) representing influential breeds in the U.S. beef cattle industry. The 2000_BULL EPD were deregressed, scaled, and weighted to adjust for between- and within-breed heterogeneous variance before use in training and validation. Molecular breeding values (MBV) trained in each multibreed population and in Angus and Hereford purebred sires of 2000_BULL were derived using the GenSel BayesCπ function (Fernando and Garrick, 2009) and cross-validated. Less than 10% of large effect loci were shared between prediction equations trained on (USMARC_GPE) relative to 2000_BULL although locus effects were moderately to highly correlated for most traits and the traits themselves were highly correlated between populations. Prediction of MBV accuracy was low and variable between populations. For growth traits, MBV accounted for up to 18% of genetic variation in a pooled, multibreed analysis and up to 28% in single breeds. For carcass traits, MBV explained up to 8% of genetic variation in a pooled, multibreed analysis and up to 42% in single breeds. Prediction equations trained in multibreed populations were more accurate for Angus and Hereford subpopulations because those were the breeds most highly represented in the training populations. Accuracies were less for prediction equations trained in a single breed due to the smaller number of records derived from a single breed in the training populations.

An accurate and efficient method to predict the electronic excitation energies of BODIPY fluorescent dyes.

PubMed

Wang, Jia-Nan; Jin, Jun-Ling; Geng, Yun; Sun, Shi-Ling; Xu, Hong-Liang; Lu, Ying-Hua; Su, Zhong-Min

2013-03-15

Recently, the extreme learning machine neural network (ELMNN) as a valid computing method has been proposed to predict the nonlinear optical property successfully (Wang et al., J. Comput. Chem. 2012, 33, 231). In this work, first, we follow this line of work to predict the electronic excitation energies using the ELMNN method. Significantly, the root mean square deviation of the predicted electronic excitation energies of 90 4,4-difluoro-4-bora-3a,4a-diaza-s-indacene (BODIPY) derivatives between the predicted and experimental values has been reduced to 0.13 eV. Second, four groups of molecule descriptors are considered when building the computing models. The results show that the quantum chemical descriptions have the closest intrinsic relation with the electronic excitation energy values. Finally, a user-friendly web server (EEEBPre: Prediction of electronic excitation energies for BODIPY dyes), which is freely accessible to public at the web site: http://202.198.129.218, has been built for prediction. This web server can return the predicted electronic excitation energy values of BODIPY dyes that are high consistent with the experimental values. We hope that this web server would be helpful to theoretical and experimental chemists in related research. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

PubMed

Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

2017-06-30

An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prediction on sunspot activity based on fuzzy information granulation and support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Lingling; Yan, Haisheng; Yang, Zhigang

2018-04-01

In order to analyze the range of sunspots, a combined prediction method of forecasting the fluctuation range of sunspots based on fuzzy information granulation (FIG) and support vector machine (SVM) was put forward. Firstly, employing the FIG to granulate sample data and extract va)alid information of each window, namely the minimum value, the general average value and the maximum value of each window. Secondly, forecasting model is built respectively with SVM and then cross method is used to optimize these parameters. Finally, the fluctuation range of sunspots is forecasted with the optimized SVM model. Case study demonstrates that the model have high accuracy and can effectively predict the fluctuation of sunspots.

Predictive value of general movements' quality in low-risk infants for minor neurological dysfunction and behavioural problems at preschool age.

PubMed

Bennema, Anne N; Schendelaar, Pamela; Seggers, Jorien; Haadsma, Maaike L; Heineman, Maas Jan; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2016-03-01

General movement (GM) assessment is a well-established tool to predict cerebral palsy in high-risk infants. Little is known on the predictive value of GM assessment in low-risk populations. To assess the predictive value of GM quality in early infancy for the development of the clinically relevant form of minor neurological dysfunction (complex MND) and behavioral problems at preschool age. Prospective cohort study. A total of 216 members of the prospective Groningen Assisted Reproductive Techniques (ART) cohort study were included in this study. ART did not affect neurodevelopmental outcome of these relatively low-risk infants born to subfertile parents. GM quality was determined at 2 weeks and 3 months. At 18 months and 4 years, the Hempel neurological examination was used to assess MND. At 4 years, parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist; this resulted in the total problem score (TPS), internalizing problem score (IPS), and externalizing problem score (EPS). Predictive values of definitely (DA) and mildly (MA) abnormal GMs were calculated. DA GMs at 2 weeks were associated with complex MND at 18 months and atypical TPS and IPS at 4 years (all p<0.05). Sensitivity and positive predictive value of DA GMs at 2 weeks were rather low (13%-60%); specificity and negative predictive value were excellent (92%-99%). DA GMs at 3 months occurred too infrequently to calculate prediction. MA GMs were not associated with outcome. GM quality as a single predictor for complex MND and behavioral problems at preschool age has limited clinical value in children at low risk for developmental disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography for sentinel lymph node localization in head and neck cutaneous malignancy.

PubMed

Remenschneider, Aaron K; Dilger, Amanda E; Wang, Yingbing; Palmer, Edwin L; Scott, James A; Emerick, Kevin S

2015-04-01

Preoperative localization of sentinel lymph nodes in head and neck cutaneous malignancies can be aided by single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT); however, its true predictive value for identifying lymph nodes intraoperatively remains unquantified. This study aims to understand the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of SPECT/CT in sentinel lymph node biopsy for cutaneous malignancies of the head and neck. Blinded retrospective imaging review with comparison to intraoperative gamma probe confirmed sentinel lymph nodes. A consecutive series of patients with a head and neck cutaneous malignancy underwent preoperative SPECT/CT followed by sentinel lymph node biopsy with a gamma probe. Two nuclear medicine physicians, blinded to clinical data, independently reviewed each SPECT/CT. Activity within radiographically defined nodal basins was recorded and compared to intraoperative gamma probe findings. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated with subgroup stratification by primary tumor site. Ninety-two imaging reads were performed on 47 patients with cutaneous malignancy who underwent SPECT/CT followed by sentinel lymph node biopsy. Overall sensitivity was 73%, specificity 92%, positive predictive value 54%, and negative predictive value 96%. The predictive ability of SPECT/CT to identify the basin or an adjacent basin containing the single hottest node was 92%. SPECT/CT overestimated uptake by an average of one nodal basin. In the head and neck, SPECT/CT has higher reliability for primary lesions of the eyelid, scalp, and cheek. SPECT/CT has high sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value, but may overestimate relevant nodal basins in sentinel lymph node biopsy. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Family Roles and Work Values: Processes of Selection and Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirkpatrick Johnson, Monica

2005-01-01

This study focuses on whether marriage and parenthood influence work values after taking into account the influence of work values on family formation. In a recent panel of young adults (N=709), stronger extrinsic and weaker intrinsic work values during adolescence predicted marriage and parenthood 9 years out of high school. Controlling these…

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Predictions of the pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with primary breast cancer using a data mining technique.

PubMed

Takada, M; Sugimoto, M; Ohno, S; Kuroi, K; Sato, N; Bando, H; Masuda, N; Iwata, H; Kondo, M; Sasano, H; Chow, L W C; Inamoto, T; Naito, Y; Tomita, M; Toi, M

2012-07-01

Nomogram, a standard technique that utilizes multiple characteristics to predict efficacy of treatment and likelihood of a specific status of an individual patient, has been used for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients. The aim of this study was to develop a novel computational technique to predict the pathological complete response (pCR) to NAC in primary breast cancer patients. A mathematical model using alternating decision trees, an epigone of decision tree, was developed using 28 clinicopathological variables that were retrospectively collected from patients treated with NAC (n = 150), and validated using an independent dataset from a randomized controlled trial (n = 173). The model selected 15 variables to predict the pCR with yielding area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values of 0.766 [95 % confidence interval (CI)], 0.671-0.861, P value < 0.0001) in cross-validation using training dataset and 0.787 (95 % CI 0.716-0.858, P value < 0.0001) in the validation dataset. Among three subtypes of breast cancer, the luminal subgroup showed the best discrimination (AUC = 0.779, 95 % CI 0.641-0.917, P value = 0.0059). The developed model (AUC = 0.805, 95 % CI 0.716-0.894, P value < 0.0001) outperformed multivariate logistic regression (AUC = 0.754, 95 % CI 0.651-0.858, P value = 0.00019) of validation datasets without missing values (n = 127). Several analyses, e.g. bootstrap analysis, revealed that the developed model was insensitive to missing values and also tolerant to distribution bias among the datasets. Our model based on clinicopathological variables showed high predictive ability for pCR. This model might improve the prediction of the response to NAC in primary breast cancer patients.

Goal-directed EEG activity evoked by discriminative stimuli in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Luque, David; Morís, Joaquín; Rushby, Jacqueline A; Le Pelley, Mike E

2015-02-01

In reinforcement learning (RL), discriminative stimuli (S) allow agents to anticipate the value of a future outcome, and the response that will produce that outcome. We examined this processing by recording EEG locked to S during RL. Incentive value of outcomes and predictive value of S were manipulated, allowing us to discriminate between outcome-related and response-related activity. S predicting the correct response differed from nonpredictive S in the P2. S paired with high-value outcomes differed from those paired with low-value outcomes in a frontocentral positivity and in the P3b. A slow negativity then distinguished between predictive and nonpredictive S. These results suggest that, first, attention prioritizes detection of informative S. Activation of mental representations of these informative S then retrieves representations of outcomes, which in turn retrieve representations of responses that previously produced those outcomes. © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

In silico Study of the Pharmacologic Properties and Cytotoxicity Pathways in Cancer Cells of Various Indolylquinone Analogues of Perezone.

PubMed

Escobedo-González, René; Vargas-Requena, Claudia Lucia; Moyers-Montoya, Edgar; Aceves-Hernández, Juan Manuel; Nicolás-Vázquez, María Inés; Miranda-Ruvalcaba, René

2017-06-25

Several indolylquinone analogues of perezone, a natural sesquiterpene quinone, were characterized in this work by theoretical methods. In addition, some physicochemical, toxicological and metabolic properties were predicted using bioinformatics software. The predicted physicochemical properties are in agreement with the solubility and cLogP values, the penetration across the cell membrane, and absorption values, as well as with a possible apoptosis-activated mechanism of cytotoxic action. The toxicological predictions suggest no mutagenic, tumorigenic or reproductive effects of the four target molecules. Complementarily, the results of a performed docking study show high scoring values and hydrogen bonding values in agreement with the cytotoxicity IC 50 value ranking, i.e: indolylmenadione > indolylperezone > indolylplumbagine > indolylisoperezone. Consequently, it is possible to suggest an appropriate apoptotic pathway for each compound. Finally, potential metabolic pathways of the molecules were proposed.

The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans.

PubMed

Lawson, Rebecca P; Seymour, Ben; Loh, Eleanor; Lutti, Antoine; Dolan, Raymond J; Dayan, Peter; Weiskopf, Nikolaus; Roiser, Jonathan P

2014-08-12

Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans.

Comparison of ionospheric F2 peak parameters foF2 and hmF2 with IRI2001 at Hainan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Shi, J. K.; Wang, G. J.; Gong, Y.

2009-06-01

Monthly median values of foF2, hmF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters, with quarter-hourly time interval resolution for the diurnal variation, obtained with DPS4 digisonde at Hainan (19.5°N, 109.1°E; Geomagnetic coordinates: 178.95°E, 8.1°N) are used to investigate the low-latitude ionospheric variations and comparisons with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predictions. The data used for the present study covers the period from February 2002 to April 2007, which is characterized by a wide range of solar activity, ranging from high solar activity (2002) to low solar activity (2007). The results show that (1) Generally, IRI predictions follow well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the experimental values of foF2, especially in the summer of 2002. However, there are systematic deviation between experimental values and IRI predictions with either CCIR or URSI coefficients. Generally IRI model greatly underestimate the values of foF2 from about noon to sunrise of next day, especially in the afternoon, and slightly overestimate them from sunrise to about noon. It seems that there are bigger deviations between IRI Model predictions and the experimental observations for the moderate solar activity. (2) Generally the IRI-predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(3000)F2 option shows a poor agreement with the experimental results, but there is a relatively good agreement in summer at low solar activity. The deviation between the IRI-predicted hmF2 using CCIR M(3000)F2 and observed hmF2 is bigger from noon to sunset and around sunrise especially at high solar activity. The occurrence time of hmF2 peak (about 1200 LT) of the IRI model predictions is earlier than that of observations (around 1500 LT). The agreement between the IRI hmF2 obtained with the measured M(3000)F2 and the observed hmF2 is very good except that IRI overestimates slightly hmF2 in the daytime in summer at high solar activity and underestimates it in the nighttime with lower values near sunrise at low solar activity.

Prediction of high incidence of dengue in the Philippines.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T; Velasco, John Mark S; Roque, Vito G; Tayag, Enrique A; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H

2014-04-01

Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity.

Prediction of High Incidence of Dengue in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Buczak, Anna L.; Baugher, Benjamin; Babin, Steven M.; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C.; Guven, Erhan; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Koshute, Phillip T.; Velasco, John Mark S.; Roque, Vito G.; Tayag, Enrique A.; Yoon, In-Kyu; Lewis, Sheri H.

2014-01-01

Background Accurate prediction of dengue incidence levels weeks in advance of an outbreak may reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this neglected disease. Therefore, models were developed to predict high and low dengue incidence in order to provide timely forewarnings in the Philippines. Methods Model inputs were chosen based on studies indicating variables that may impact dengue incidence. The method first uses Fuzzy Association Rule Mining techniques to extract association rules from these historical epidemiological, environmental, and socio-economic data, as well as climate data indicating future weather patterns. Selection criteria were used to choose a subset of these rules for a classifier, thereby generating a Prediction Model. The models predicted high or low incidence of dengue in a Philippines province four weeks in advance. The threshold between high and low was determined relative to historical incidence data. Principal Findings Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV), Sensitivity, and Specificity computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. Selecting a model using the F0.5 measure, which gives PPV more importance than Sensitivity, gave these results: PPV = 0.780, NPV = 0.938, Sensitivity = 0.547, Specificity = 0.978. Using the F3 measure, which gives Sensitivity more importance than PPV, the selected model had PPV = 0.778, NPV = 0.948, Sensitivity = 0.627, Specificity = 0.974. The decision as to which model has greater utility depends on how the predictions will be used in a particular situation. Conclusions This method builds prediction models for future dengue incidence in the Philippines and is capable of being modified for use in different situations; for diseases other than dengue; and for regions beyond the Philippines. The Philippines dengue prediction models predicted high or low incidence of dengue four weeks in advance of an outbreak with high accuracy, as measured by PPV, NPV, Sensitivity, and Specificity. PMID:24722434

Enhancing the 'real world' prediction of cardiovascular events and major bleeding with the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores using multiple biomarkers.

PubMed

Roldán, Vanessa; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Shantsila, Alena; García-Fernández, Amaya; Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Vilchez, Juan Antonio; Romera, Marta; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

2018-02-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks. We investigated if a multibiomarker strategy improved the predictive performance of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED in anticoagulated AF patients. We included consecutive patients stabilized for six months on vitamin K antagonists (INRs 2.0-3.0). High sensitivity troponin T, NT-proBNP, interleukin-6, von Willebrand factor concentrations and glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; using MDRD-4 formula) were quantified at baseline. Time in therapeutic range (TTR) was recorded at six months after inclusion. Patients were follow-up during a median of 2375 (IQR 1564-2887) days and all adverse events were recorded. In 1361 patients, adding four blood biomarkers, TTR and MDRD-eGFR, the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc increased significantly by c-index (0.63 vs. 0.65; p = .030) and IDI (0.85%; p < .001), but not by NRI (-2.82%; p < .001). The predictive value of HAS-BLED increased up to 1.34% by IDI (p < .001). Nevertheless, the overall predictive value remains modest (c-indexes approximately 0.65) and decision curve analyses found lower net benefit compared with the originals scores. Addition of biomarkers enhanced the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED, although the overall improvement was modest and the added predictive advantage over original scores was marginal. Key Messages Recent atrial fibrillation (AF)-European guidelines for the first time suggest the use of biomarkers to stratify patients for stroke and bleeding risks, but their usefulness in real world for risk stratification is still questionable. In this cohort study involving 1361 AF patients optimally anticoagulated with vitamin K antagonists, adding high sensitivity troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, interleukin 6, von Willebrand factor, glomerular filtration rate (by the MDRD-4 formula) and time in therapeutic range, increased the predictive value of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc for cardiovascular events, but not the predictive value of HAS-BLED for major bleeding. Reclassification analyses did not show improvement adding multiple biomarkers. Despite the improvement observed, the added predictive advantage is marginal and the clinical usefulness and net benefit over current clinical scores is lower.

Parents, Peers, and Sexual Values Influence Sexual Behavior During the Transition to College

PubMed Central

Neal, Dan J.; Fromme, Kim

2018-01-01

Several decades of research have identified the contributions of psychosocial influences on adolescent and young adult sexual behavior; however, few studies have examined parental and peer influence and sexual values during the transition from high school to college. The current study tested the influence of sexual values and perceived awareness and caring (PAC), or beliefs about how much parents and peers know and care about students’ behavior, on sexual behavior during this transitional period. Using data from a longitudinal study, generalized estimating equations and the generalized linear model were used to examine the associations among sexual values, parental and peer PAC, and sexual behavior, both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Participants (N = 1,847; 61% female) completed web-based surveys the summer before college matriculation and at the end of the first semester in college. Results indicated that individuals with high levels of both parental and peer PAC engaged in less frequent sexual behaviors and that PAC moderated the effect of sexual values on sexual behaviors. Furthermore, both PAC variables decreased during the transition from high school to college, and high school sexual values, parental PAC, and their interaction predicted the number of sexual partners during the first semester of college. Only sexual values and high school unsafe sexual behaviors predicted unsafe sexual behavior in college. Findings suggest that complex associations exist among perceived awareness and caring, sexual values, and sexual behaviors, and that the transition from high school to college may be an ideal time for safer-sex interventions. PMID:19291385

Pretreatment Prediction of Brain Tumors' Response to Radiation Therapy Using High b-Value Diffusion-Weighted MRI1

PubMed Central

Mardor, Yael; Roth, Yiftach; Ocherashvilli, Aharon; Spiegelmann, Roberto; Tichler, Thomas; Daniels, Dianne; Maier, Stephan E; Nissim, Ouzi; Ram, Zvi; Baram, Jacob; Orenstein, Arie; Pfeffer, Raphael

2004-01-01

Abstract Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWMRI) is sensitive to tissues' biophysical characteristics, including apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) and volume fractions of water in different populations. In this work, we evaluate the clinical efficacy of DWMRI and high diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (HDWMRI), acquired up to b = 4000 sec/mm2 to amplify sensitivity to water diffusion properties, in pretreatment prediction of brain tumors' response to radiotherapy. Twelve patients with 20 brain lesions were studied. Six ring-enhancing lesions were excluded due to their distinct diffusion characteristics. Conventional and DWMRI were acquired on a 0.5-T MRI. Response to therapy was determined from relative changes in tumor volumes calculated from contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI, acquired before and a mean of 46 days after beginning therapy. ADCs and a diffusion index, RD, reflecting tissue viability based on water diffusion were calculated from DWMRIs. Pretreatment values of ADC and RD were found to correlate significantly with later tumor response/nonresponse (r = 0.76, P < .002 and r = 0.77, P < .001). This correlation implies that tumors with low pretreatment diffusion values, indicating high viability, will respond better to radiotherapy than tumors with high diffusion values, indicating necrosis. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using DWMRI for pretreatment prediction of response to therapy in patients with brain tumors undergoing radiotherapy. PMID:15140402

Pretreatment prediction of brain tumors' response to radiation therapy using high b-value diffusion-weighted MRI.

PubMed

Mardor, Yael; Roth, Yiftach; Ochershvilli, Aharon; Spiegelmann, Roberto; Tichler, Thomas; Daniels, Dianne; Maier, Stephan E; Nissim, Ouzi; Ram, Zvi; Baram, Jacob; Orenstein, Arie; Pfeffer, Raphael

2004-01-01

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWMRI) is sensitive to tissues' biophysical characteristics, including apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) and volume fractions of water in different populations. In this work, we evaluate the clinical efficacy of DWMRI and high diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (HDWMRI), acquired up to b = 4000 sec/mm(2) to amplify sensitivity to water diffusion properties, in pretreatment prediction of brain tumors' response to radiotherapy. Twelve patients with 20 brain lesions were studied. Six ring-enhancing lesions were excluded due to their distinct diffusion characteristics. Conventional and DWMRI were acquired on a 0.5-T MRI. Response to therapy was determined from relative changes in tumor volumes calculated from contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI, acquired before and a mean of 46 days after beginning therapy. ADCs and a diffusion index, R(D), reflecting tissue viability based on water diffusion were calculated from DWMRIs. Pretreatment values of ADC and R(D) were found to correlate significantly with later tumor response/nonresponse (r = 0.76, P <.002 and r = 0.77, P <.001). This correlation implies that tumors with low pretreatment diffusion values, indicating high viability, will respond better to radiotherapy than tumors with high diffusion values, indicating necrosis. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using DWMRI for pretreatment prediction of response to therapy in patients with brain tumors undergoing radiotherapy.

Integrating qPLM and biomechanical test data with an anisotropic fiber distribution model and predictions of TGF-β1 and IGF-1 regulation of articular cartilage fiber modulus

PubMed Central

Stender, Michael E.; Raub, Christopher B.; Yamauchi, Kevin A.; Shirazi, Reza; Vena, Pasquale; Sah, Robert L.; Hazelwood, Scott J.; Klisch, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

A continuum mixture model with distinct collagen (COL) and glycosaminoglycan (GAG) elastic constituents was developed for the solid matrix of immature bovine articular cartilage. A continuous COL fiber volume fraction distribution function and a true COL fiber elastic modulus (Ef) were used. Quantitative polarized light microscopy (qPLM) methods were developed to account for the relatively high cell density of immature articular cartilage and used with a novel algorithm that constructs a 3D distribution function from 2D qPLM data. For specimens untreated and cultured in vitro, most model parameters were specified from qPLM analysis and biochemical assay results; consequently, Ef was predicted using an optimization to measured mechanical properties in uniaxial tension and unconfined compression. Analysis of qPLM data revealed a highly anisotropic fiber distribution, with principal fiber orientation parallel to the surface layer. For untreated samples, predicted Ef values were 175 and 422 MPa for superficial (S) and middle (M) zone layers, respectively. TGF-β1 treatment was predicted to increase and decrease Ef values for the S and M layers to 281 and 309 MPa, respectively. IGF-1 treatment was predicted to decrease Ef values for the S and M layers to 22 and 26 MPa, respectively. A novel finding was that distinct native depth-dependent fiber modulus properties were modulated to nearly homogeneous values by TGF-β1 and IGF-1 treatments, with modulated values strongly dependent on treatment. PMID:23266906

University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment Study: comparisons of high risk prediction, any risk prediction, and any risk etiologic models.

PubMed

Beck, J D; Weintraub, J A; Disney, J A; Graves, R C; Stamm, J W; Kaste, L M; Bohannan, H M

1992-12-01

The purpose of this analysis is to compare three different statistical models for predicting children likely to be at risk of developing dental caries over a 3-yr period. Data are based on 4117 children who participated in the University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment Study, a longitudinal study conducted in the Aiken, South Carolina, and Portland, Maine areas. The three models differed with respect to either the types of variables included or the definition of disease outcome. The two "Prediction" models included both risk factor variables thought to cause dental caries and indicator variables that are associated with dental caries, but are not thought to be causal for the disease. The "Etiologic" model included only etiologic factors as variables. A dichotomous outcome measure--none or any 3-yr increment, was used in the "Any Risk Etiologic model" and the "Any Risk Prediction Model". Another outcome, based on a gradient measure of disease, was used in the "High Risk Prediction Model". The variables that are significant in these models vary across grades and sites, but are more consistent among the Etiologic model than the Predictor models. However, among the three sets of models, the Any Risk Prediction Models have the highest sensitivity and positive predictive values, whereas the High Risk Prediction Models have the highest specificity and negative predictive values. Considerations in determining model preference are discussed.

Cortisol Secretion and Change in Sleep Problems in Early Childhood: Moderation by Maternal Overcontrol

PubMed Central

Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Hummel, Alexandra C.; Luebbe, Aaron M.

2015-01-01

Childhood sleep problems are prevalent and relate to a wide range of negative psychological outcomes. However, it remains unclear how biological processes, such as HPA activity, may predict sleep problems over time in childhood in the context of certain parenting environments. Fifty-one mothers and their 18–20 month-old toddlers participated in a short-term longitudinal study assessing how shared variance among morning levels, diurnal change, and nocturnal change in toddlers’ cortisol secretion predicted change in sleep problems in the context of maternal overprotection and critical control. A composite characterized by low variability in, and, to a lesser extent, high morning values of cortisol, predicted increasing sleep problems from age 2 to age 3 when mothers reported high critical control. Results suggest value in assessing shared variance among different indices of cortisol secretion patterns and the interaction between cortisol and the environment in predicting sleep problems in early childhood. PMID:25766262

Rural Adolescents' Reading Motivation, Achievement and Behavior across Transition to High School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantrell, Susan Chambers; Rintamaa, Margaret; Anderman, Eric M.; Anderman, Lynley H.

2018-01-01

The authors examined 1,781 rural students' reading motivation and behavior across the transition from middle to high school. Using expectancy-value theory, they investigated how motivational variables predicted changes in reading behavior and achievement across the transition in terms of their expectancies, values, and out-of-school reading…

A look into the relationship between personality traits and basic values: A longitudinal investigation.

PubMed

Vecchione, Michele; Alessandri, Guido; Roccas, Sonia; Caprara, Gian Vittorio

2018-05-27

The present study examines the longitudinal association between basic personal values and the Big Five personality traits. A sample of 546 young adults (57% females) with a mean age of 21.68 years (SD = 1.60) completed the Portrait Values Questionnaire and the Big Five Questionnaire at three-time points, each separated by an interval of four years. Cross-lagged models were used to investigate the possible reciprocal relations between traits and values, after the stability of the variables was taken into account. We found that values did not affect trait development. Traits, by contrast, have some effects on how values change. Specifically, high levels of agreeableness predict an increase over time in the importance assigned to benevolence values. Similarly, high levels of openness predict a later increase in the importance assigned to self-direction values. The same effect was not found for the other traits. Additionally, except for in the case of emotional stability, traits showed synchronous (i.e., within wave) correlations with values, suggesting that part of this relationship is due to common antecedents. Mechanisms underlying the associations between traits and values are discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The utility of kindergarten teacher ratings for predicting low academic achievement in first grade.

PubMed

Teisl, J T; Mazzocco, M M; Myers, G F

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of kindergarten teachers' ratings of pupils for later first-grade academic achievement. Kindergarten students were rated by their teachers on a variety of variables, including math and reading performance, teacher concerns, and amount of learning relative to peers. These variables were then analyzed with respect to outcome measures for math and reading ability administered in the first grade. The teachers' ratings of academic performance were significantly correlated with scores on the outcome measures. Analyses were also carried out to determine sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the different teacher ratings. The results indicated high overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for the ratings. Positive predictive value tended to be lower. A recommendation to follow from these results is that teacher ratings of this sort be used to determine which children should receive cognitive screening measures to further enhance identification of children at risk for learning disability. However, this recommendation is limited by the lack of empirically supported screening measures for math disability versus well-supported screening tools for reading disability.

Thermal inactivation of H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus in naturally infected chicken meat.

PubMed

Thomas, Colleen; Swayne, David E

2007-03-01

Thermal inactivation of the H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus strain A/chicken/Korea/ES/2003 (Korea/03) was quantitatively measured in thigh and breast meat harvested from infected chickens. The Korea/03 titers were recorded as the mean embryo infectious dose (EID50) and were 10(8.0) EID50/g in uncooked thigh samples and 10(7.5) EID50/g in uncooked breast samples. Survival curves were constructed for Korea/03 in chicken thigh and breast meat at 1 degrees C intervals for temperatures of 57 to 61 degrees C. Although some curves had a slightly biphasic shape, a linear model provided a fair-to-good fit at all temperatures, with R2 values of 0.85 to 0.93. Stepwise linear regression revealed that meat type did not contribute significantly to the regression model and generated a single linear regression equation for z-value calculations and D-value predictions for Korea/03 in both meat types. The z-value and the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the z-value were 4.64 and 5.32 degrees C, respectively. From the lowest temperature to the highest, the predicted D-values and the upper limits of their 95% prediction intervals (conservative D-values) for 57 to 61 degrees C were 241.2 and 321.1 s, 146.8 and 195.4 s, 89.3 and 118.9 s, 54.4 and 72.4 s, and 33.1 and 44.0 s. D-values and conservative D-values predicted for higher temperatures were 0.28 and 0.50 s for 70 degrees C and 0.041 and 0.073 s for 73.9 degrees C. Calculations with the conservative D-values predicted that cooking chicken meat according to current U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service time-temperature guidelines will inactivate Korea/03 in a heavily contaminated meat sample, such as those tested in this study, with a large margin of safety.

Divergent plate boundary characteristics and crustal spreading in Aphrodite Terra, Venus - A test of some predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Head, James W.; Crumpler, L. S.

1989-01-01

Predictions concerning the divergence and crustal spreading in the Western Aphrodite Region of Venus are tested using published results from Arecibo, Venera 15/16, and Pioneer Venus data. It is found that the northern middle to high latitudes are characterized by a young average age, that there is a trend in the total number of craters per unit area from high values in the north polar regions to low values toward the equator, and that there is evidence for a latitudinal distribution of tectonic features of different types, with extensional features common in equatorial regions and compressional deformation features common in the northern middle to high latitudes.

Bioclinical Test to Predict Nephropathia Epidemica Severity at Hospital Admission.

PubMed

Hentzien, Maxime; Mestrallet, Stéphanie; Halin, Pascale; Pannet, Laure-Anne; Lebrun, Delphine; Dramé, Moustapha; Bani-Sadr, Firouzé; Galempoix, Jean-Marc; Strady, Christophe; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Penalba, Christian; Servettaz, Amélie

2018-06-01

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with serologically proven nephropathia epidemica (NE) living in Ardennes Department, France, during 2000-2014 to develop a bioclinical test predictive of severe disease. Among 205 patients, 45 (22.0%) had severe NE. We found the following factors predictive of severe NE: nephrotoxic drug exposure (p = 0.005, point value 10); visual disorders (p = 0.02, point value 8); microscopic or macroscopic hematuria (p = 0.04, point value 7); leukocyte count >10 × 10 9 cells/L (p = 0.01, point value 9); and thrombocytopenia <90 × 10 9 /L (p = 0.003, point value 11). When point values for each factor were summed, we found a score of <10 identified low-risk patients (3.3% had severe disease), and a score >20 identified high-risk patients (45.3% had severe disease). If validated in future studies, this test could be used to stratify patients by severity in research studies and in clinical practice.

pKa prediction from an ab initio bond length: part 3--benzoic acids and anilines.

PubMed

Harding, A P; Popelier, P L A

2011-06-21

The prediction of pK(a) from a single ab initio bond length has been extended to provide equations for benzoic acids and anilines. The HF/6-31G(d) level of theory is used for all geometry optimisations. Similarly to phenols (Part 2 of this series of publications), the meta-/para-substituted benzoic acids can be predicted from a single model constructed from one bond length. This model had an impressive RMSEP of 0.13 pK(a) units. The prediction of ortho-substituted benzoic acids required the identification of high-correlation subsets, where the compounds in the same subset have at least one of the same (e.g. halogens, hydroxy) ortho substituent. Two pK(a) equations are provided for o-halogen benzoic acids and o-hydroxybenzoic acids, where the RMSEP values are 0.19 and 0.15 pK(a) units, respectively. Interestingly, the bond length that provided the best model differed between these two high-correlation subsets. This demonstrates the importance of investigating the most predictive bond length, which is not necessarily the bond involving the acid hydrogen. Three high-correlation subsets were identified for the ortho-substituted anilines. These were o-halogen, o-nitro and o-alkyl-substituted aniline high-correlation subsets, where the RMSEP ranged from 0.23 to 0.44 pK(a) units. The RMSEP for the meta-/para-substituted aniline model was 0.54 pK(a) units. This value exceeded our threshold of 0.50 pK(a) units and was higher than both the m-/p-benzoic acids in this work and the m-/p-phenols (RMSEP = 0.43) of Part 2. Constructing two separate models for the meta- and para- substituted anilines, where RMSEP values of 0.63 and 0.33 pK(a) units were obtained respectively, revealed it was the meta-substituted anilines that caused the large RMSEP value. For unknown reasons the RMSEP value increased with the addition of a further twenty meta-substituted anilines to this model. The C-N bond always produced the best correlations with pK(a) for all the high-correlation subsets. A higher level of theory and an ammonia probe improved the statistics only marginally for the hydroxybenzoic acid high-correlation subsets.

Can pleural adenosine deaminase (ADA) levels in pleural tuberculosis predict the presence of pulmonary tuberculosis? A CT analysis.

PubMed

Koh, Myung Je; Lee, In Jae; Kim, Joo-Hee

2016-06-01

To assess the relationship between imaging features of pulmonary tuberculosis at computed tomography (CT) and adenosine deaminase (ADA) values via pleural fluid analysis in patients with pleural tuberculosis. This retrospective study enrolled 60 patients who underwent fluid analysis for ADA and chest CT and were diagnosed with tuberculosis by culture or polymerase chain reaction of pleural fluid and sputum. The presence of centrilobular nodules, consolidation, cavitation, and mediastinal lymphadenopathy at CT were evaluated. The relationship between ADA values and the pattern of pulmonary involvement of tuberculosis was analysed. Pulmonary involvement was seen in 42 of the 60 patients. A centrilobular nodular pattern was seen in 37 and consolidation in 22. In 17 patients, both findings were identified. A centrilobular nodular pattern was more common than consolidation or cavitary lesions. When ADA values were high, pulmonary involvement was more frequent (p=0.002). Comparing low and high ADA groups using an obtained cut-off value of 80 IU/l, the high group had more frequent pulmonary involvement (p<0.001). Patients with tuberculous pleurisy who had high ADA values had a higher probability of manifesting pulmonary tuberculosis. High ADA values may help predict contagious pleuroparenchymal tuberculosis. The most common pulmonary involvement of tuberculous pleurisy showed a centrilobular nodular pattern. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of colorectal neoplasia: Combination of eight blood-based, cancer-associated protein biomarkers.

PubMed

Wilhelmsen, Michael; Christensen, Ib J; Rasmussen, Louise; Jørgensen, Lars N; Madsen, Mogens R; Vilandt, Jesper; Hillig, Thore; Klaerke, Michael; Nielsen, Knud T; Laurberg, Søren; Brünner, Nils; Gawel, Susan; Yang, Xiaoqing; Davis, Gerard; Heijboer, Annemieke; Martens, Frans; Nielsen, Hans J

2017-03-15

Serological biomarkers may be an option for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC). The present study assessed eight cancer-associated protein biomarkers in plasma from subjects undergoing first time ever colonoscopy due to symptoms attributable to colorectal neoplasia. Plasma AFP, CA19-9, CEA, hs-CRP, CyFra21-1, Ferritin, Galectin-3 and TIMP-1 were determined in EDTA-plasma using the Abbott ARCHITECT® automated immunoassay platform. Primary endpoints were detection of (i) CRC and high-risk adenoma and (ii) CRC. Logistic regression was performed. Final reduced models were constructed selecting the four biomarkers with the highest likelihood scores. Subjects (N = 4,698) were consecutively included during 2010-2012. Colonoscopy detected 512 CRC patients, 319 colonic cancer and 193 rectal cancer. Extra colonic malignancies were detected in 177 patients, 689 had adenomas of which 399 were high-risk, 1,342 had nonneoplastic bowell disease and 1,978 subjects had 'clean' colorectum. Univariable analysis demonstrated that all biomarkers were statistically significant. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that the blood-based biomarkers in combination significantly predicted the endpoints. The reduced model resulted in the selection of CEA, hs-CRP, CyFra21-1 and Ferritin for the two endpoints; AUCs were 0.76 and 0.84, respectively. The postive predictive value at 90% sensitivity was 25% for endpoint 1 and the negative predictive value was 93%. For endpoint 2, the postive predictive value was 18% and the negative predictive value was 97%. Combinations of serological protein biomarkers provided a significant identification of subjects with high risk of the presence of colorectal neoplasia. The present set of biomarkers could become important adjunct in early detection of CRC. © 2016 UICC.

Sensitivity to value-driven attention is predicted by how we learn from value.

PubMed

Jahfari, Sara; Theeuwes, Jan

2017-04-01

Reward learning is known to influence the automatic capture of attention. This study examined how the rate of learning, after high- or low-value reward outcomes, can influence future transfers into value-driven attentional capture. Participants performed an instrumental learning task that was directly followed by an attentional capture task. A hierarchical Bayesian reinforcement model was used to infer individual differences in learning from high or low reward. Results showed a strong relationship between high-reward learning rates (or the weight that is put on learning after a high reward) and the magnitude of attentional capture with high-reward colors. Individual differences in learning from high or low rewards were further related to performance differences when high- or low-value distractors were present. These findings provide novel insight into the development of value-driven attentional capture by showing how information updating after desired or undesired outcomes can influence future deployments of automatic attention.

Evaluation of the impact of computed high b-value diffusion-weighted imaging on prostate cancer detection.

PubMed

Verma, Sadhna; Sarkar, Saradwata; Young, Jason; Venkataraman, Rajesh; Yang, Xu; Bhavsar, Anil; Patil, Nilesh; Donovan, James; Gaitonde, Krishnanath

2016-05-01

The purpose of this study was to compare high b-value (b = 2000 s/mm(2)) acquired diffusion-weighted imaging (aDWI) with computed DWI (cDWI) obtained using four diffusion models-mono-exponential (ME), intra-voxel incoherent motion (IVIM), stretched exponential (SE), and diffusional kurtosis (DK)-with respect to lesion visibility, conspicuity, contrast, and ability to predict significant prostate cancer (PCa). Ninety four patients underwent 3 T MRI including acquisition of b = 2000 s/mm(2) aDWI and low b-value DWI. High b = 2000 s/mm(2) cDWI was obtained using ME, IVIM, SE, and DK models. All images were scored on quality independently by three radiologists. Lesions were identified on all images and graded for lesion conspicuity. For a subset of lesions for which pathological truth was established, lesion-to-background contrast ratios (LBCRs) were computed and binomial generalized linear mixed model analysis was conducted to compare clinically significant PCa predictive capabilities of all DWI. For all readers and all models, cDWI demonstrated higher ratings for image quality and lesion conspicuity than aDWI except DK (p < 0.001). The LBCRs of ME, IVIM, and SE were significantly higher than LBCR of aDWI (p < 0.001). Receiver Operating Characteristic curves obtained from binomial generalized linear mixed model analysis demonstrated higher Area Under the Curves for ME, SE, IVIM, and aDWI compared to DK or PSAD alone in predicting significant PCa. High b-value cDWI using ME, IVIM, and SE diffusion models provide better image quality, lesion conspicuity, and increased LBCR than high b-value aDWI. Using cDWI can potentially provide comparable sensitivity and specificity for detecting significant PCa as high b-value aDWI without increased scan times and image degradation artifacts.

The value of temporary external lumbar CSF drainage in predicting the outcome of shunting on normal pressure hydrocephalus

PubMed Central

Walchenbach, R; Geiger, E; Thomeer, R; Vanneste, J

2002-01-01

Objective: It has been reported that temporary external lumbar CSF drainage (ELD) is a very accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). However, only a limited number of patients have been studied for assessing the predictive accuracy of ELD. Therefore, the value of ELD in predicting the outcome after a ventriculoperitoneal shunt in patients with presumed NPH was assessed. Methods: All patients with presumed NPH were invited to participate in this study. Clinical assessment, MRI, and neuropsychological evaluation were followed by a lumbar CSF tap test consisting of removing 40 ml CSF. When this test resulted in marked clinical improvement of gait impairment, mental disturbances, or both, the patient was shunted without further tests. In patients with either questionable or no improvement after the CSF tap test, ELD was carried out. The value of ELD for predicting the outcome after shunting was calculated by correlating the results of ELD with that of ventriculoperitoneal shunting. Results: Between January 1994 and December 2000, 49 presumed NPH patients from three institutes were included. Forty three had idiopathic, and the remaining six had secondary NPH. Forty eight patients were shunted; 39 had an ELD of whom 38 completed the test. After 2 months 35 of the 48 (73%) shunted patients had improved. The predictive value of a positive ELD was 87% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 62–98) and that of a negative ELD 36% (95% CI 17–59). In two patients serious test related complications (meningitis) occurred without residual deficit. Conclusion: The study suggests that although the predictive value of a positive ELD is high, that of a negative ELD is deceptively low because of the high rate of false negative results. The costs and invasiveness of the test and the possibility of serious test related complications further limits its usefulness in managing patients with presumed NPH. PMID:11909911

Using the Expectancy-Value Theory of Motivation to Predict Behavioral and Emotional Risk among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dever, Bridget V.

2016-01-01

Within the expectancy-value framework, much work has been done linking expectancies and task values to academic outcomes such as performance, persistence, and choice. Research on the associations between student motivation (including efficacy and task values) and behavioral and emotional problems, however, is nascent. The present study examined a…

Predictive value of diminutive colonic adenoma trial: the PREDICT trial.

PubMed

Schoenfeld, Philip; Shad, Javaid; Ormseth, Eric; Coyle, Walter; Cash, Brooks; Butler, James; Schindler, William; Kikendall, Walter J; Furlong, Christopher; Sobin, Leslie H; Hobbs, Christine M; Cruess, David; Rex, Douglas

2003-05-01

Diminutive adenomas (1-9 mm in diameter) are frequently found during colon cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). This trial assessed the predictive value of these diminutive adenomas for advanced adenomas in the proximal colon. In a multicenter, prospective cohort trial, we matched 200 patients with normal FS and 200 patients with diminutive adenomas on FS for age and gender. All patients underwent colonoscopy. The presence of advanced adenomas (adenoma >or= 10 mm in diameter, villous adenoma, adenoma with high grade dysplasia, and colon cancer) and adenomas (any size) was recorded. Before colonoscopy, patients completed questionnaires about risk factors for adenomas. The prevalence of advanced adenomas in the proximal colon was similar in patients with diminutive adenomas and patients with normal FS (6% vs. 5.5%, respectively) (relative risk, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-2.6). Diminutive adenomas on FS did not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon: sensitivity, 52% (95% CI, 32%-72%); specificity, 50% (95% CI, 49%-51%); positive predictive value, 6% (95% CI, 4%-8%); and negative predictive value, 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%). Male gender (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.61) was associated with an increased risk of proximal colon adenomas. Diminutive adenomas on sigmoidoscopy may not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon.

Flight test evaluation of predicted light aircraft drag, performance, and stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smetana, F. O.; Fox, S. R.

1979-01-01

A technique was developed which permits simultaneous extraction of complete lift, drag, and thrust power curves from time histories of a single aircraft maneuver such as a pullup (from V sub max to V sub stall) and pushover (to sub V max for level flight.) The technique is an extension to non-linear equations of motion of the parameter identification methods of lliff and Taylor and includes provisions for internal data compatibility improvement as well. The technique was show to be capable of correcting random errors in the most sensitive data channel and yielding highly accurate results. This technique was applied to flight data taken on the ATLIT aircraft. The drag and power values obtained from the initial least squares estimate are about 15% less than the 'true' values. If one takes into account the rather dirty wing and fuselage existing at the time of the tests, however, the predictions are reasonably accurate. The steady state lift measurements agree well with the extracted values only for small values of alpha. The predicted value of the lift at alpha = 0 is about 33% below that found in steady state tests while the predicted lift slope is 13% below the steady state value.

Clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone and inhibin B in prediction of ovarian response in patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Zhang, Fan; Liu, Xiao-Ling; Rong, Nan; Huang, Xiao-Wen

2017-02-01

The present study aimed to investigate the clinical value of serum anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (INHB) in predicting the ovarian response of patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A total of 120 PCOS patients were enrolled and divided into three groups in terms of the ovarian response: a low-response group (n=36), a normal-response group (n=44), and a high-response group (n=40). The serum AMH and INHB levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), and estradiol (E2) levels were determined by chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. The correlation of the serum AMH and INHB levels with other indicators was analyzed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to analyze the prediction of ovarian response by AMH and INHB. The results showed that there were significant differences in age, body mass index (BMI), FSH, total gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), LH, E2, and antral follicle counts (AFCs) between the groups (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were increased significantly with the ovarian response of PCOS patients increasing (P<0.05). The serum AMH and INHB levels were negatively correlated with the age, BMI, FSH level, Gn, and E2 levels (P<0.05). They were positively correlated with the LH levels and AFCs (P<0.05). ROC curve analysis of serum AMH and INHB in prediction of a low ovarian response showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of the serum AMH level was 0.817, with a cut-off value of 1.29 ng/mL. The sensitivity and specificity were 71.2% and 79.6%, respectively. The AUC value of serum INHB was 0.674, with a cut-off value of 38.65 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 50.7% and 74.5%, respectively. ROC curve analysis showed when the serum AMH and INHB levels were used to predict a high ovarian response, the AUC value of the serum AMH level was 0.742, with a cut-off value of 2.84 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 72.7% and 65.9%, respectively; the AUC value of the serum INHB level was 0.551 with a cut-off of 45.76 ng/mL, and the sensitivity and specificity were 76.3% and 40.2%, respectively. It was suggested the serum AMH and INHB levels have high clinical value in predicting the ovarian response of PCOS patients.

1.5-Tesla Multiparametric-Magnetic Resonance Imaging for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer

PubMed Central

POPITA, CRISTIAN; POPITA, ANCA RALUCA; SITAR-TAUT, ADELA; PETRUT, BOGDAN; FETICA, BOGDAN; COMAN, IOAN

2017-01-01

Background and aim Multiparametric-magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) is the main imaging modality used for prostate cancer detection. The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of mp-MRI at 1.5-Tesla (1.5-T) for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer. Methods In this ethical board approved prospective study, 39 patients with suspected prostate cancer were included. Patients with a history of positive prostate biopsy and patients treated for prostate cancer were excluded. All patients were examined at 1.5-T MRI, before standard transrectal ultrasonography–guided biopsy. Results The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for mp-MRI were 100%, 73.68%, 80% and 100%, respectively. Conclusion Our results showed that 1.5 T mp-MRI has a high sensitivity for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer and high negative predictive value in order to rule out significant disease. PMID:28246496

Aboveground biomass mapping in French Guiana by combining remote sensing, forest inventories and environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fayad, Ibrahim; Baghdadi, Nicolas; Guitet, Stéphane; Bailly, Jean-Stéphane; Hérault, Bruno; Gond, Valéry; El Hajj, Mahmoud; Tong Minh, Dinh Ho

2016-10-01

Mapping forest aboveground biomass (AGB) has become an important task, particularly for the reporting of carbon stocks and changes. AGB can be mapped using synthetic aperture radar data (SAR) or passive optical data. However, these data are insensitive to high AGB levels (>150 Mg/ha, and >300 Mg/ha for P-band), which are commonly found in tropical forests. Studies have mapped the rough variations in AGB by combining optical and environmental data at regional and global scales. Nevertheless, these maps cannot represent local variations in AGB in tropical forests. In this paper, we hypothesize that the problem of misrepresenting local variations in AGB and AGB estimation with good precision occurs because of both methodological limits (signal saturation or dilution bias) and a lack of adequate calibration data in this range of AGB values. We test this hypothesis by developing a calibrated regression model to predict variations in high AGB values (mean >300 Mg/ha) in French Guiana by a methodological approach for spatial extrapolation with data from the optical geoscience laser altimeter system (GLAS), forest inventories, radar, optics, and environmental variables for spatial inter- and extrapolation. Given their higher point count, GLAS data allow a wider coverage of AGB values. We find that the metrics from GLAS footprints are correlated with field AGB estimations (R2 = 0.54, RMSE = 48.3 Mg/ha) with no bias for high values. First, predictive models, including remote-sensing, environmental variables and spatial correlation functions, allow us to obtain ;wall-to-wall; AGB maps over French Guiana with an RMSE for the in situ AGB estimates of ∼50 Mg/ha and R2 = 0.66 at a 1-km grid size. We conclude that a calibrated regression model based on GLAS with dependent environmental data can produce good AGB predictions even for high AGB values if the calibration data fit the AGB range. We also demonstrate that small temporal and spatial mismatches between field data and GLAS footprints are not a problem for regional and global calibrated regression models because field data aim to predict large and deep tendencies in AGB variations from environmental gradients and do not aim to represent high but stochastic and temporally limited variations from forest dynamics. Thus, we advocate including a greater variety of data, even if less precise and shifted, to better represent high AGB values in global models and to improve the fitting of these models for high values.

Streamlining the Evaluation of Low Back Pain in Children

PubMed Central

Auerbach, Joshua D.; Ahn, Jaimo; Zgonis, Miltiadis H.; Reddy, Sudheer C.; Ecker, Malcolm L.

2008-01-01

The workup of low back pain in children often results in overimaging so as not to miss organic back pain. The primary goal of this study was to identify which combination of imaging modalities provides the most sensitive and specific screening protocol for children with low back pain. Medical records from 100 consecutive patients between 2 and 18 years of age presenting with low back pain, without night pain or constitutional symptoms, were evaluated. A hyperextension test combined with a radiograph showed a negative predictive value of 0.81 and sensitivity of 0.90. The addition of a bone scan was highly effective in achieving good negative predictive value and sensitivity. Bone scans had perfect negative predictive value and sensitivity when symptom duration was less than 6 weeks. We identified a set of factors that is highly predictive for distinguishing organic back pain from mechanical back pain. Painless hyperextension combined with negative anteroposterior, lateral, and oblique lumbar radiographs and magnetic resonance images predicts mechanical back pain. For patients with nonneurologic back pain of less than 6 weeks duration, bone scan is the most useful screening test because it is accurate, accessible, inexpensive, and unlikely to require sedation. Level of Evidence: Level III, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. PMID:18553213

Predictors of Prosocial Behavior among Chinese High School Students in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Siu, Andrew M. H.; Shek, Daniel T. L.; Lai, Frank H. Y.

2012-01-01

This study examined the correlates and predictors of prosocial behavior among Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong. A sample of 518 high school students responded to a questionnaire containing measures of antisocial and prosocial behavior, prosocial norms, pragmatic values, moral reasoning, and empathy. Preliminary analyses showed that there were gender differences in some of the measures. While correlation analyses showed that parental education, prosocial norms, pragmatic values, moral reasoning, and empathy were related to prosocial behavior, regression analyses showed that prosocial norms, pragmatic values, and empathy dimensions (personal distress and empathy) were key predictors of it. The findings are largely consistent with theoretical predictions and previous research findings, other than the negative relationship between personal distress and prosocial behavior. The study also underscores the importance of values and norms in predicting prosocial behavior, which has been largely neglected in previous studies. PMID:22919326

Creatinine measurement on dry blood spot sample for chronic kidney disease screening.

PubMed

Silva, Alan Castro Azevedo E; Gómez, Juan Fidel Bencomo; Lugon, Jocemir Ronaldo; Graciano, Miguel Luis

2016-03-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) screening is advisable due to its high morbidity and mortality and is usually performed by sampling blood and urine. Here we present an innovative and simpler method, by measuring creatinine on a dry blood spot on filter paper. One-hundred and six individuals at high risk for CKD were enrolled. The creatinine values obtained using both tests and the demographic data of each participant allowed us to determinate the eGFR. The adopted cutoff for CKD was an eGFR < 60 ml/min. Mean age was 57 ± 12 years, 74% were female, 40% white, and 60% non-white. Seventy-six percent were hypertensive, 30% diabetic, 37% had family history of CKD, and 22% of smoking. The BMI was 29.5 ± 6.9 kg/m2, median systolic blood pressure was 125 mmHg (IQR 120-140 mmHg) and median diastolic blood pressure was 80 mmHg (IQR 70-80 mmHg). According to MDRD equation, sensitivity was 96%, specificity 55%, predictive positive value 96%, predictive negative value 55% and accuracy 92%. By the CKD-EPI equation the sensitivity was 94%, specificity 55%, predictive positive value 94%, predictive negative value 55% and accuracy 90%. A Bland and Altman analysis showed a relatively narrow range of creatinine values differences (+ 0.68mg/dl to -0.55mg/dl) inside the ± 1.96 SD, without systematic differences. Measurement of creatinine on dry blood sample is an easily feasible non-invasive diagnostic test with good accuracy that may be useful to screen chronic kidney disease.

Validity of Principal Diagnoses in Discharge Summaries and ICD-10 Coding Assessments Based on National Health Data of Thailand.

PubMed

Sukanya, Chongthawonsatid

2017-10-01

This study examined the validity of the principal diagnoses on discharge summaries and coding assessments. Data were collected from the National Health Security Office (NHSO) of Thailand in 2015. In total, 118,971 medical records were audited. The sample was drawn from government hospitals and private hospitals covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme in Thailand. Hospitals and cases were selected using NHSO criteria. The validity of the principal diagnoses listed in the "Summary and Coding Assessment" forms was established by comparing data from the discharge summaries with data obtained from medical record reviews, and additionally, by comparing data from the coding assessments with data in the computerized ICD (the data base used for reimbursement-purposes). The summary assessments had low sensitivities (7.3%-37.9%), high specificities (97.2%-99.8%), low positive predictive values (9.2%-60.7%), and high negative predictive values (95.9%-99.3%). The coding assessments had low sensitivities (31.1%-69.4%), high specificities (99.0%-99.9%), moderate positive predictive values (43.8%-89.0%), and high negative predictive values (97.3%-99.5%). The discharge summaries and codings often contained mistakes, particularly the categories "Endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases", "Symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings not elsewhere classified", "Factors influencing health status and contact with health services", and "Injury, poisoning, and certain other consequences of external causes". The validity of the principal diagnoses on the summary and coding assessment forms was found to be low. The training of physicians and coders must be strengthened to improve the validity of discharge summaries and codings.

Non-enhanced, ECG-gated MR angiography of the pedal vasculature: comparison with contrast-enhanced MR angiography and digital subtraction angiography in peripheral arterial occlusive disease.

PubMed

Schubert, Tilman; Takes, Martin; Aschwanden, Markus; Klarhoefer, Markus; Haas, Tanja; Jacob, Augustinus L; Liu, David; Gutzeit, Andreas; Kos, Sebastian

2016-08-01

This study was conducted in order to compare a high resolution, non-contrast-enhanced MRA (NATIVE SPACE, NE-MRA) of the pedal vasculature with contrast-enhanced MRA (CE-MRA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in patients with peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD). The prospective study consists of 20 PAOD patients. All patients underwent percutaneous transluminal angioplasty or stenting and received MR angiographies the following day. With CE-MRA, 75.7 % of vessel segments showed good, 16.4 % suboptimal and 7.9 % not usable image quality. With NE-MRA, 64.6 % showed good, 18.6 % suboptimal and 16.8 % not usable image quality. CE-MRA showed a sensitivity and negative predictive value of 90 %/95 % regarding significant stenosis (greater than 50 %), and specificity and positive predictive value were 88 %/77 %. Accordingly, sensitivity and negative predictive value for the NE-MRA were 96 %/97 % and specificity and positive predictive value were 80 %/69 % for stenoses greater than 50 %. The applied NE-MRA technique achieves high diagnostic accuracy even in very small distal arteries of the foot. However, the rate of non-diagnostic vessel segments is considerably higher for NE-MRA than for CE-MRA. NE-MRA is a valuable alternative to CE-MRA in selected patients. • Comparison of non-enhanced MRA with contrast-enhanced MRA and DSA as gold standard. • High resolution MRA at 3 T for the depiction of small pedal vessels. • Evaluation of high resolution non-enhanced MRA in PAOD patients.

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach-A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China.

PubMed

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-06-15

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study-simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan.

Derivation and Validation of a Biomarker-Based Clinical Algorithm to Rule Out Sepsis From Noninfectious Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome at Emergency Department Admission: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

PubMed

Mearelli, Filippo; Fiotti, Nicola; Giansante, Carlo; Casarsa, Chiara; Orso, Daniele; De Helmersen, Marco; Altamura, Nicola; Ruscio, Maurizio; Castello, Luigi Mario; Colonetti, Efrem; Marino, Rossella; Barbati, Giulia; Bregnocchi, Andrea; Ronco, Claudio; Lupia, Enrico; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Di Somma, Salvatore; Avanzi, Gian Carlo; Biolo, Gianni

2018-05-07

To derive and validate a predictive algorithm integrating a nomogram-based prediction of the pretest probability of infection with a panel of serum biomarkers, which could robustly differentiate sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Multicenter prospective study. At emergency department admission in five University hospitals. Nine-hundred forty-seven adults in inception cohort and 185 adults in validation cohort. None. A nomogram, including age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, recent antimicrobial therapy, hyperthermia, leukocytosis, and high C-reactive protein values, was built in order to take data from 716 infected patients and 120 patients with noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict pretest probability of infection. Then, the best combination of procalcitonin, soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA, presepsin, soluble interleukin-2 receptor α, and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 was applied in order to categorize patients as "likely" or "unlikely" to be infected. The predictive algorithm required only procalcitonin backed up with soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA determined in 29% of the patients to rule out sepsis/septic shock with a negative predictive value of 93%. In a validation cohort of 158 patients, predictive algorithm reached 100% of negative predictive value requiring biomarker measurements in 18% of the population. We have developed and validated a high-performing, reproducible, and parsimonious algorithm to assist emergency department physicians in distinguishing sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

[Role of parathyroid hormone measurement in prediction for symptomatic hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy].

PubMed

An, Chang-ming; Tang, Ping-zhang; Xu, Zhen-gang; Zhang, Bin; Zhang, Zong-min; Yan, Dan-gui; Li, Zheng-jiang

2010-03-01

To evaluate the role of parathyroid hormone (PTH) and serum calcium in prediction for hypocalcaemia after total thyroidectomy. One hundred and sixty-five patients undergoing total or complete total thyroidectomy were reviewed retrospectively. The indications included bilateral carcinoma, undifferential carcinoma, surroundings invasion, distant metastasis and huge benign lesions. Preoperative and postoperative PTH, calcium concentrations and their decline levels were compared between Jan. 2005 and May 2009. The role of PTH value and decline level predicting for symptomatic hypocalcaemia were analyzed by receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve. After total thyroidectomy, 85 patients (51.5%) developed hypocalcemia. Symptoms were reported by 36 patients (21.8%). The mean concentration of PTH for normocalcaemia (80 cases), asymptomatic hypocalcaemia (49 cases) and symptomatic patients (36 cases) were 31.0 ng/L, 19.6 ng/L and 11.9 ng/L, respectively. The mean decline level for the three groups were 28.6%, 52.6% and 78.0%, respectively. PTH value and its decline level had a poor predicting value for symptomatic hypocalcaemia and high negative predicting value for asymptomatic patients. The serum calcium concentration more than 2.0 mmol/L, PTH level higher than 15 ng/L and PTH decline less than 50% had the good negative predicting value of 97.6%, 90.3% and 96.5%, respectively. Postoperative PTH and its decline level were significantly correlated with postoperative serum calcium concentration but had a low accuracy for predicting symptomatic hypocalcaemia. The serum calcium concentration more than 2.0 mmol/L, PTH level higher than 15 ng/L and PTH decline less than 50% had the good predicting value for asymptomatic patients. Calcium should be routinely supplemented in the first 24 h after total thyroidectomy to reduce the rate of hypocalcemia and the severity of hypocalcemia symptoms.

Sirc-cvs cytotoxicity test: an alternative for predicting rodent acute systemic toxicity.

PubMed

Kitagaki, Masato; Wakuri, Shinobu; Hirota, Morihiko; Tanaka, Noriho; Itagaki, Hiroshi

2006-10-01

An in vitro crystal violet staining method using the rabbit cornea-derived cell line (SIRC-CVS) has been developed as an alternative to predict acute systemic toxicity in rodents. Seventy-nine chemicals, the in vitro cytotoxicity of which was already reported by the Multicenter Evaluation of In vitro Toxicity (MEIC) and ICCVAM/ECVAM, were selected as test compounds. The cells were incubated with the chemicals for 72 hrs and the IC(50) and IC(35) values (microg/mL) were obtained. The results were compared to the in vivo (rat or mouse) "most toxic" oral, intraperitoneal, subcutaneous and intravenous LD(50) values (mg/kg) taken from the RTECS database for each of the chemicals by using Pearson's correlation statistics. The following parameters were calculated: accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, prevalence, positive predictability, and negative predictability. Good linear correlations (Pearson's coefficient; r>0.6) were observed between either the IC(50) or the IC(35) values and all the LD(50) values. Among them, a statistically significant high correlation (r=0.8102, p<0.001) required for acute systemic toxicity prediction was obtained between the IC(50) values and the oral LD(50) values. By using the cut-off concentrations of 2,000 mg/kg (LD(50)) and 4,225 microg/mL (IC(50)), no false negatives were observed, and the accuracy was 84.8%. From this, it is concluded that this method could be used to predict the acute systemic toxicity potential of chemicals in rodents.

Conditional Toxicity Value (CTV) Predictor: An In Silico Approach for Generating Quantitative Risk Estimates for Chemicals.

PubMed

Wignall, Jessica A; Muratov, Eugene; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Tropsha, Alexander; Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A

2018-05-01

Human health assessments synthesize human, animal, and mechanistic data to produce toxicity values that are key inputs to risk-based decision making. Traditional assessments are data-, time-, and resource-intensive, and they cannot be developed for most environmental chemicals owing to a lack of appropriate data. As recommended by the National Research Council, we propose a solution for predicting toxicity values for data-poor chemicals through development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. We used a comprehensive database of chemicals with existing regulatory toxicity values from U.S. federal and state agencies to develop quantitative QSAR models. We compared QSAR-based model predictions to those based on high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. QSAR models for noncancer threshold-based values and cancer slope factors had cross-validation-based Q 2 of 0.25-0.45, mean model errors of 0.70-1.11 log 10 units, and applicability domains covering >80% of environmental chemicals. Toxicity values predicted from QSAR models developed in this study were more accurate and precise than those based on HTS assays or mean-based predictions. A publicly accessible web interface to make predictions for any chemical of interest is available at http://toxvalue.org. An in silico tool that can predict toxicity values with an uncertainty of an order of magnitude or less can be used to quickly and quantitatively assess risks of environmental chemicals when traditional toxicity data or human health assessments are unavailable. This tool can fill a critical gap in the risk assessment and management of data-poor chemicals. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2998.

Prediction of parenteral nutrition osmolarity by digital refractometry.

PubMed

Chang, Wei-Kuo; Yeh, Ming-Kung

2011-05-01

Infusion of high-osmolarity parenteral nutrition (PN) formulations into a peripheral vein will damage the vessel. In this study, the authors developed a refractometric method to predict PN formulation osmolarity for patients receiving PN. Nutrients in PN formulations were prepared for Brix value and osmolality measurement. Brix value and osmolality measurement of the dextrose, amino acids, and electrolytes were used to evaluate the limiting factor of PN osmolarity prediction. A best-fit equation was generated to predict PN osmolarity (mOsm/L): 81.05 × Brix value--116.33 (R(2) > 0.99). To validate the PN osmolarity prediction by these 4 equations, a total of 500 PN admixtures were tested. The authors found strong linear relationships between the Brix values and the osmolality measurement of dextrose (R(2) = 0.97), amino acids (R(2) = 0.99), and electrolytes (R(2) > 0.96). When PN-measured osmolality was between 600 and 900 mOsm/kg, approximately 43%, 29%, 43%, and 0% of the predicted osmolarity obtained by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. When measured osmolality was between 900 and 1,500 mOsm/kg, 31%, 100%, 85%, and 15% of the predicted osmolarity by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. The refractive method permits accurate PN osmolarity prediction and reasonable quality assurance before PN formulation administration.

Kic size effect study on two high-strength steels using notched bend specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stonesifer, F. R.

1974-01-01

Five methods are used to calculate plane strain fracture toughness (K sub Q) values for bend-specimens of various sizes from two high-strength steels. None of the methods appeared to satisfactorily predict valid stress intensity factor (K sub IC) values from specimens of sizes well below that required by E399 standard tests.

Kubelka-Munk reflectance theory applied to porcelain veneer systems using a colorimeter.

PubMed

Davis, B K; Johnston, W M; Saba, R F

1994-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the ability of Kubelka-Munk reflectance theory to predict color parameters of veneer porcelain on various backings using colorimetric measurements. Tristimulus absorption and scattering coefficients were used to predict the respective tristimulus reflectance values of A1, D3, and translucent porcelain samples after they had been bonded to light and dark substrates using universal, opaque, and untinted shades of bonding resin. Observed and predicted reflectance values exhibited high correlation (r2 > or = 0.93 for each porcelain shade). Kubelka-Munk theory offers an accurate prediction for the resultant colorimetric reflectance parameters of veneer porcelain bonded to variously colored backings.

[Open narcissism, covered narcissism and personality disorders as predictive factors of treatment response in an out-patient Drug Addiction Unit].

PubMed

Salazar-Fraile, José; Ripoll-Alandes, Carmen; Bobes, Julio

2010-01-01

Although a high prevalence of personality disorders has been reported in substance users, the literature on their value for predicting treatment response is controversial. On the other hand, while the predictive validity of personality traits as predictors of response to drug abuse or dependence has been studied, research on the validity of narcissistic personality traits is scarce. To study the predictive value of personality disorders, narcissistic personality traits and self-esteem for predicting treatment response. We assessed 78 patients attended at an addiction treatment unit using personality disorder diagnoses and measures of self-esteem, narcissism and covert (hypersensitive) narcissism. These variables were used in a Cox survival model as predictive variables of time to relapse into drug use. Hypersensitive (covert) narcissism and borderline and passive-aggressive personality disorders were risk factors for relapse into drug use, while open narcissism was a protective factor. Self-esteem did not show predictive validity. Personality disorders characterized by impulsivity-instability and passivity-resentfulness show higher risk of relapse into drug abuse. Personality traits characterized by high sensitivity to humiliation increase the risk of relapse, whereas pride and self-confidence are protective factors.

Study on creep of fiber reinforced ultra-high strength concrete based on strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Wenjun; Wang, Tao

2018-04-01

To complement the creep performance of ultra-high strength concrete, the long creep process of fiber reinforced concrete was studied in this paper. The long-term creep process and regularity of ultra-high strength concrete with 0.5% PVA fiber under the same axial compression were analyzed by using concrete strength (C80/C100/C120) as a variable. The results show that the creep coefficient of ultra-high strength concrete decreases with the increase of concrete strength. Compared with ACI209R (92), GL2000 models, it is found that the predicted value of ACI209R (92) are close to the experimental value, and the creep prediction model suitable for this experiment is proposed based on ACI209R (92).

Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

PubMed

Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

2015-08-01

Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Prediction of genotoxic potential of cosmetic ingredients by an in silico battery system consisting of a combination of an expert rule-based system and a statistics-based system.

PubMed

Aiba née Kaneko, Maki; Hirota, Morihiko; Kouzuki, Hirokazu; Mori, Masaaki

2015-02-01

Genotoxicity is the most commonly used endpoint to predict the carcinogenicity of chemicals. The International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) M7 Guideline on Assessment and Control of DNA Reactive (Mutagenic) Impurities in Pharmaceuticals to Limit Potential Carcinogenic Risk offers guidance on (quantitative) structure-activity relationship ((Q)SAR) methodologies that predict the outcome of bacterial mutagenicity assay for actual and potential impurities. We examined the effectiveness of the (Q)SAR approach with the combination of DEREK NEXUS as an expert rule-based system and ADMEWorks as a statistics-based system for the prediction of not only mutagenic potential in the Ames test, but also genotoxic potential in mutagenicity and clastogenicity tests, using a data set of 342 chemicals extracted from the literature. The prediction of mutagenic potential or genotoxic potential by DEREK NEXUS or ADMEWorks showed high values of sensitivity and concordance, while prediction by the combination of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks (battery system) showed the highest values of sensitivity and concordance among the three methods, but the lowest value of specificity. The number of false negatives was reduced with the battery system. We also separately predicted the mutagenic potential and genotoxic potential of 41 cosmetic ingredients listed in the International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI) among the 342 chemicals. Although specificity was low with the battery system, sensitivity and concordance were high. These results suggest that the battery system consisting of DEREK NEXUS and ADMEWorks is useful for prediction of genotoxic potential of chemicals, including cosmetic ingredients.

Do the EMA accelerated assessment procedure and the FDA priority review ensure a therapeutic added value? 2006-2015: a cohort study.

PubMed

Boucaud-Maitre, Denis; Altman, Jean-Jacques

2016-10-01

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) have both implemented procedures in order to shorten review time for marketing authorizations with potential therapeutic added value, called priority review and accelerated assessment procedure, respectively. The aim of this study is to compare the new molecular entities (NME) assessed in shorter review time by both agencies and to investigate whether granting a shorter review time status subsequently predicts its therapeutic value attributed by a health technology assessment agency, the French Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS). All NME approved by the EMA and the FDA with a therapeutic added value between 2007 and June 30, 2015 were extracted. We assessed the sensibility, the positive predictive value, and the EMA review time. One hundred seventy-eight NME were approved by the FDA and the EMA and a therapeutic value was available for 160 NME. Eighty-eight (55.0 %) NME were on FDA priority review, 24 (15.0 %) on EMA accelerated procedure and 43 (26.9 %) were considered of high clinical added value. The sensibility was 86.0 % for the FDA and 30.2 % for the EMA. The positive predictive value was, respectively, 42.0 and 54.2 %. Twenty-five NME on FDA priority review and of high therapeutic added value were not on EMA accelerated assessment procedure, leading to a supplementary mean EMA review time of 146 days. The EMA was restrictive to grant a shorten review time status for products with therapeutic interest during the study period.

Building and verifying a severity prediction model of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on BISAP, MEWS and routine test indexes.

PubMed

Ye, Jiang-Feng; Zhao, Yu-Xin; Ju, Jian; Wang, Wei

2017-10-01

To discuss the value of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), serum Ca2+, similarly hereinafter, and red cell distribution width (RDW) for predicting the severity grade of acute pancreatitis and to develop and verify a more accurate scoring system to predict the severity of AP. In 302 patients with AP, we calculated BISAP and MEWS scores and conducted regression analyses on the relationships of BISAP scoring, RDW, MEWS, and serum Ca2+ with the severity of AP using single-factor logistics. The variables with statistical significance in the single-factor logistic regression were used in a multi-factor logistic regression model; forward stepwise regression was used to screen variables and build a multi-factor prediction model. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was constructed, and the significance of multi- and single-factor prediction models in predicting the severity of AP using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was evaluated. The internal validity of the model was verified through bootstrapping. Among 302 patients with AP, 209 had mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and 93 had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). According to single-factor logistic regression analysis, we found that BISAP, MEWS and serum Ca2+ are prediction indexes of the severity of AP (P-value<0.001), whereas RDW is not a prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05). The multi-factor logistic regression analysis showed that BISAP and serum Ca2+ are independent prediction indexes of AP severity (P-value<0.001), and MEWS is not an independent prediction index of AP severity (P-value>0.05); BISAP is negatively related to serum Ca2+ (r=-0.330, P-value<0.001). The constructed model is as follows: ln()=7.306+1.151*BISAP-4.516*serum Ca2+. The predictive ability of each model for SAP follows the order of the combined BISAP and serum Ca2+ prediction model>Ca2+>BISAP. There is no statistical significance for the predictive ability of BISAP and serum Ca2+ (P-value>0.05); however, there is remarkable statistical significance for the predictive ability using the newly built prediction model as well as BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually (P-value<0.01). Verification of the internal validity of the models by bootstrapping is favorable. BISAP and serum Ca2+ have high predictive value for the severity of AP. However, the model built by combining BISAP and serum Ca2+ is remarkably superior to those of BISAP and serum Ca2+ individually. Furthermore, this model is simple, practical and appropriate for clinical use. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Capturing anharmonicity in a lattice thermal conductivity model for high-throughput predictions

DOE PAGES

Miller, Samuel A.; Gorai, Prashun; Ortiz, Brenden R.; ...

2017-01-06

High-throughput, low-cost, and accurate predictions of thermal properties of new materials would be beneficial in fields ranging from thermal barrier coatings and thermoelectrics to integrated circuits. To date, computational efforts for predicting lattice thermal conductivity (κ L) have been hampered by the complexity associated with computing multiple phonon interactions. In this work, we develop and validate a semiempirical model for κ L by fitting density functional theory calculations to experimental data. Experimental values for κ L come from new measurements on SrIn 2O 4, Ba 2SnO 4, Cu 2ZnSiTe 4, MoTe 2, Ba 3In 2O 6, Cu 3TaTe 4, SnO,more » and InI as well as 55 compounds from across the published literature. Here, to capture the anharmonicity in phonon interactions, we incorporate a structural parameter that allows the model to predict κ L within a factor of 1.5 of the experimental value across 4 orders of magnitude in κ L values and over a diverse chemical and structural phase space, with accuracy similar to or better than that of computationally more expensive models.« less

Role of procalcitonin in predicting dilating vesicoureteral reflux in young children hospitalized with a first febrile urinary tract infection.

PubMed

Sun, Hai-Lun; Wu, Kang-Hsi; Chen, Shan-Ming; Chao, Yu-Hua; Ku, Min-Sho; Hung, Tong-Wei; Liao, Pen-Fen; Lue, Ko-Huang; Sheu, Ji-Nan

2013-09-01

The aim of this article was to assess the usefulness of procalcitonin (PCT) as a marker for predicting dilating (grades III-V) vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in young children with a first febrile urinary tract infection. Children ≤2 years of age with a first febrile urinary tract infection were prospectively evaluated. Serum samples were tested for PCT at the time of admission to a tertiary hospital. All children underwent renal ultrasonography (US), Tc-dimercaptosuccinic acid renal scan, and voiding cystourethrography. The diagnostic characteristics of PCT test for acute pyelonephritis and dilating VUR were calculated. Of 272 children analyzed (168 boys and 104 girls; median age, 5 months), 169 (62.1%) had acute pyelonephritis. There was VUR demonstrated in 97 (35.7%), including 70 (25.7%) with dilating VUR. The median PCT value was significantly higher in children with VUR than in those without (P < 0.001). Using a PCT cutoff value of ≥1.0 ng/mL, the sensitivity and negative predictive value for predicting dilating VUR were 94.3% and 95.4%, respectively, for PCT, and 97.1% and 97.8%, respectively, for the combined PCT and US studies, whereas the positive and negative likelihood ratios were 2.03 and 0.107, respectively, for PCT, and 1.72 and 0.067, respectively, for the combined studies. By multivariate analysis, high PCT values and abnormalities on US were independent predictors of dilating VUR. PCT is useful for diagnosing acute pyelonephritis and predicting dilating VUR in young children with a first febrile urinary tract infection. A voiding cystourethrography is indicated only in children with high PCT values (≥1.0 ng/mL) and/or abnormalities found on a US.

Genetic parameters and prediction of genotypic values for root quality traits in cassava using REML/BLUP.

PubMed

Oliveira, E J; Santana, F A; Oliveira, L A; Santos, V S

2014-08-28

The aim of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and predict the genotypic values of root quality traits in cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). A total of 471 cassava accessions were evaluated over two years of cultivation. The evaluated traits included amylose content (AML), root dry matter (DMC), cyanogenic compounds (CyC), and starch yield (StYi). Estimates of the individual broad-sense heritability of AML were low (hg(2) = 0.07 ± 0.02), medium for StYi and DMC, and high for CyC. The heritability of AML was substantially improved based on mean of accessions (hm(2) = 0.28), indicating that some strategies such as increasing the number of repetitions can be used to increase the selective efficiency. In general, the observed genotypic values were very close to the predicted average of the improved population, most likely due to the high accuracy (>0.90), especially for DMC, CyC, and StYi. Gains via selection of the 30 best genotypes for each trait were 4.8 and 3.2% for an increase and decrease for AML, respectively, an increase of 10.75 and 74.62% for DMC for StYi, respectively, and a decrease of 89.60% for CyC in relation to the overall mean of the genotypic values. Genotypic correlations between the quality traits of the cassava roots collected were generally favorable, although they were low in magnitude. The REML/BLUP method was adequate for estimating genetic parameters and predicting the genotypic values, making it useful for cassava breeding.

Do MCI criteria in drug trials accurately identify subjects with predementia Alzheimer's disease?

PubMed Central

Visser, P; Scheltens, P; Verhey, F

2005-01-01

Background: Drugs effective in Alzheimer-type dementia have been tested in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) because these are supposed to have Alzheimer's disease in the predementia stage. Objectives: To investigate whether MCI criteria used in these drug trials can accurately diagnose subjects with predementia Alzheimer's disease. Methods: MCI criteria of the Gal-Int 11 study, InDDEx study, ADCS memory impairment study, ampakine CX 516 study, piracetam study, and Merck rofecoxib study were applied retrospectively in a cohort of 150 non-demented subjects from a memory clinic. Forty two had progressed to Alzheimer type dementia during a five year follow up period and were considered to have predementia Alzheimer's disease at baseline. Outcome measures were the odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. Results: The odds ratio of the MCI criteria for predementia Alzheimer's disease varied between 0.84 and 11. Sensitivity varied between 0.46 and 0.83 and positive predictive value between 0.43 and 0.76. None of the criteria combined a high sensitivity with a high positive predictive value. Exclusion criteria for depression led to an increase in positive predictive value and specificity at the cost of sensitivity. In subjects older than 65 years the positive predictive value was higher than in younger subjects. Conclusions: The diagnostic accuracy of MCI criteria used in trials for predementia Alzheimer's disease is low to moderate. Their use may lead to inclusion of many patients who do not have predementia Alzheimer's disease or to exclusion of many who do. Subjects with moderately severe depression should not be excluded from trials in order not to reduce the sensitivity. PMID:16170074

Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

PubMed

Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

2017-08-01

Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Intra-Operative Frozen Sections for Ovarian Tumors – A Tertiary Center Experience

PubMed Central

Arshad, Nur Zaiti Md; Ng, Beng Kwang; Paiman, Noor Asmaliza Md; Mahdy, Zaleha Abdullah; Noor, Rushdan Mohd

2018-01-01

Background: Accuracy of diagnosis with intra-operative frozen sections is extremely important in the evaluation of ovarian tumors so that appropriate surgical procedures can be selected. Study design: All patients who with intra-operative frozen sections for ovarian masses in a tertiary center over nine years from June 2008 until April 2017 were reviewed. Frozen section diagnosis and final histopathological reports were compared. Main outcome measures: Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of intra-operative frozen section as compared to final histopathological results for ovarian tumors. Results: A total of 92 cases were recruited for final evaluation. The frozen section diagnoses were comparable with the final histopathological reports in 83.7% of cases. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for benign and malignant ovarian tumors were 95.6%, 85.1%, 86.0% and 95.2% and 69.2%, 100%, 100% and 89.2% respectively. For borderline ovarian tumors, the sensitivity and specificity were 76.2% and 88.7%, respectively; the positive predictive value was 66.7% and the negative predictive value was 92.7%. Conclusion: The accuracy of intra-operative frozen section diagnoses for ovarian tumors is high and this approach remains a reliable option in assessing ovarian masses intra-operatively. PMID:29373916

Two-question depression-screeners - the solution to all problems?

PubMed

Albani, Cornelia; Bailer, Harald; Blaser, Gerd; Brähler, Elmar; Geyer, Michael; Grulke, Norbert

2006-04-01

Depression constitutes a considerable issue in medicine and it is anticipated that the amount of people suffering from affective disorders will increase significantly. It would be useful to have a simple, fast screening procedure which would help detect depression. In four recently published articles a two-question depression-screener is recommended. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, negative and positive predictive values were compared. For four different clinical samples and one sample that was representative of the German population the prevalence for depression ranged from 6.9 % to 18.1 %. Sensitivity and specificity reached values from 72.6 % to 96.6 % and from 56.9 % to 90.0 % respectively. All negative predictive values were high (< 97 %) opposed to positive predictive values (17.8 % to 38.5 %). Overall, it seems that the two-question screenings are well suited for the exclusion of a major depression. It is possible that regular screening could further lower the percentage of undiagnosed cases.

Predictive utility of blood pressure, waist circumference and body mass index for metabolic syndrome in patients with schizophrenia in Singapore.

PubMed

Nurjono, Milawaty; Lee, Jimmy

2013-05-01

This study aims to examine and compare the predictive utility of blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI), and to determine optimal cut-off values in prediction of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in patients with chronic schizophrenia. About 100 patients with chronic schizophrenia were recruited. BMI and BP were measured and laboratory tests to evaluate patients' high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose levels were performed. Presence of MetS was examined according to AHA/NHLBI guidelines. Predictive utility of BP, WC and BMI was examined using receiver operating curve and discriminant indices were determined accordingly. Forty-six (46%) patients were identified to have MetS. BMI of ≥23 kg m(-2) was most accurate (AUC = 0.83, P < 0.001), with sensitivity of 93.5%, specificity of 48.1%, positive predictive value of 60.6% and negative predictive value of 92.9% in identifying MetS. This finding has immediate and significant clinical implications in the local population with schizophrenia. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Gao, Pei; Khan, Hassan; Butterworth, Adam S; Wormser, David; Kaptoge, Stephen; Kondapally Seshasai, Sreenivasa Rao; Thompson, Alex; Sarwar, Nadeem; Willeit, Peter; Ridker, Paul M; Barr, Elizabeth L M; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Psaty, Bruce M; Brenner, Hermann; Balkau, Beverley; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Lawlor, Debbie A; Daimon, Makoto; Willeit, Johann; Njølstad, Inger; Nissinen, Aulikki; Brunner, Eric J; Kuller, Lewis H; Price, Jackie F; Sundström, Johan; Knuiman, Matthew W; Feskens, Edith J M; Verschuren, W M M; Wald, Nicholas; Bakker, Stephan J L; Whincup, Peter H; Ford, Ian; Goldbourt, Uri; Gómez-de-la-Cámara, Agustín; Gallacher, John; Simons, Leon A; Rosengren, Annika; Sutherland, Susan E; Björkelund, Cecilia; Blazer, Dan G; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Onat, Altan; Marín Ibañez, Alejandro; Casiglia, Edoardo; Jukema, J Wouter; Simpson, Lara M; Giampaoli, Simona; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Selmer, Randi; Wennberg, Patrik; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T; Dankner, Rachel; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Kavousi, Maryam; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Evans, Denis; Wallace, Robert B; Cushman, Mary; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Umans, Jason G; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Nakagawa, Hidaeki; Sato, Shinichi; Gillum, Richard F; Folsom, Aaron R; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Moons, Karel G; Griffin, Simon J; Sattar, Naveed; Wareham, Nicholas J; Selvin, Elizabeth; Thompson, Simon G; Danesh, John

2014-03-26

The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.

Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Simone, Andrea; Guth, Alan H.; Salem, Michael P.

2008-09-15

It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant {lambda} gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of {lambda} depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. A very promising method of regulation uses a scale-factor cutoff, which avoids a number of serious problems that arise in other approaches. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff avoids the 'youngness problem' (high probability of living in a much younger universe) and the 'Q and G catastrophes'more » (high probability for the primordial density contrast Q and gravitational constant G to have extremely large or small values). We apply the scale-factor cutoff measure to the probability distribution of {lambda}, considering both positive and negative values. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of {lambda} that are more than about 10 times the observed value. We also discuss qualitatively the prediction for the density parameter {omega}, indicating that with this measure there is a possibility of detectable negative curvature.« less

Predictive role of stress echocardiography before carotid endarterectomy in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Galyfos, George; Tsioufis, Constantinos; Theodorou, Dimitris; Katsaragakis, Stilianos; Zografos, Georgios; Filis, Konstantinos

2015-07-01

Our aim was to examine the predictive value of preoperative stress echocardiography regarding early myocardial ischemia and late cardiac events after carotid endarterectomy (CEA). Patients with coronary artery disease undergoing CEA were prospectively included in this study. All patients (n = 162) were classified into low, medium, and high cardiac risk group, according to preoperative stress echocardiography. Classification was based on the criteria of the American Society of Echocardiography. For all patients, cTnI was measured before surgery and on postoperative days 1, 3, and 7. Postoperative cTnI values ranging from 0.05 to 0.5 ng/mL were classified as myocardial ischemia; values >0.5 ng/mL were classified as myocardial infarction. Cardiac damage was defined as either myocardial ischemia or infarction. No deaths, strokes, or symptomatic coronary events were observed during the early postoperative period. There were 112 low cardiac risk patients, 42 medium-risk patients, and 8 high-risk patients, according to stress echocardiography findings. Overall, there were 22 patients (14%) that increased their cTnI values postoperatively (12 of low cardiac risk and 10 of medium cardiac risk), and all of them were asymptomatic. None of the high-risk patients showed any troponin increase. Late cardiac events were associated with cTnI increase, although no high-risk patients showed any late event. Preoperative stress echocardiography does not seem to independently recognize patients in high risk for asymptomatic cardiac damage after CEA. Postoperative troponin elevation seems to be more predictive for late adverse cardiac events than preoperative stress echocardiography. © 2014, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The value of pretest probability and modified clinical pulmonary infection score to diagnose ventilator-associated pneumonia.

PubMed

Lauzier, François; Ruest, Annie; Cook, Deborah; Dodek, Peter; Albert, Martin; Shorr, Andrew F; Day, Andrew; Jiang, Xuran; Heyland, Daren

2008-03-01

The aim of the study was to assess the utility of pretest probability and modified clinical pulmonary infection score CPIS in the diagnosis of late-onset ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). In 740 adults enrolled in a multicenter randomized trial, intensivists prospectively rated the pretest probability of VAP as low, moderate, or high based on their clinical judgment. The modified CPIS was calculated without considering culture results. Ventilator-associated pneumonia diagnosis was determined by 2 adjudicators using standardized definitions. We analyzed the relationship between pretest likelihood, CPIS, and VAP diagnosis. Among the 739 patients analyzed, 14.5%, 39.6%, and 45.9% had low, moderate, and high pretest probability of VAP. Patients with high pretest probability had a lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio and a larger volume of secretions. High or moderate vs low pretest probability had high sensitivity (0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87-0.89) and positive predictive value (0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88) but low specificity (0.27; 95% CI, 0.21-0.35) and negative predictive value (0.29; 95% C,: 0.22-0.37) for the diagnosis of VAP. Therefore, 71% of patients who had a low pretest probability were actually infected (1 - negative predictive value). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the modified CPIS was not significant (0.47; 95% CI, 0.42-0.53), meaning that no score threshold was clinically useful. Pretest probability and a modified CPIS, which excludes culture results, are of limited utility in the diagnosis of late-onset VAP.

Method for Phenotypic Detection of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamases in Enterobacter Species in the Routine Clinical Setting ▿

PubMed Central

Stuart, James Cohen; Diederen, Bram; al Naiemi, Nashwan; Fluit, Ad; Arents, Niek; Thijsen, Steven; Vlaminckx, Bart; Mouton, Johan W.; Leverstein-van Hall, Maurine

2011-01-01

In 271 Enterobacter blood culture isolates from 12 hospitals, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) prevalence varied between 0% and 30% per hospital. High prevalence was associated with dissemination, indicating the potential relevance of infection control measures. Screening with cefepime or Vitek 2, followed by a cefepime/cefepime-clavulanate Etest, was an accurate strategy for ESBL detection in Enterobacter isolates (positive predictive value, 100%; negative predictive value, 99%). PMID:21562100

Extending the cost-benefit model of thermoregulation: high-temperature environments.

PubMed

Vickers, Mathew; Manicom, Carryn; Schwarzkopf, Lin

2011-04-01

The classic cost-benefit model of ectothermic thermoregulation compares energetic costs and benefits, providing a critical framework for understanding this process (Huey and Slatkin 1976 ). It considers the case where environmental temperature (T(e)) is less than the selected temperature of the organism (T(sel)), and it predicts that, to minimize increasing energetic costs of thermoregulation as habitat thermal quality declines, thermoregulatory effort should decrease until the lizard thermoconforms. We extended this model to include the case where T(e) exceeds T(sel), and we redefine costs and benefits in terms of fitness to include effects of body temperature (T(b)) on performance and survival. Our extended model predicts that lizards will increase thermoregulatory effort as habitat thermal quality declines, gaining the fitness benefits of optimal T(b) and maximizing the net benefit of activity. Further, to offset the disproportionately high fitness costs of high T(e) compared with low T(e), we predicted that lizards would thermoregulate more effectively at high values of T(e) than at low ones. We tested our predictions on three sympatric skink species (Carlia rostralis, Carlia rubrigularis, and Carlia storri) in hot savanna woodlands and found that thermoregulatory effort increased as thermal quality declined and that lizards thermoregulated most effectively at high values of T(e).

High Throughput pharmacokinetic modeling using computationally predicted parameter values: dissociation constants (TDS)

EPA Science Inventory

Estimates of the ionization association and dissociation constant (pKa) are vital to modeling the pharmacokinetic behavior of chemicals in vivo. Methodologies for the prediction of compound sequestration in specific tissues using partition coefficients require a parameter that ch...

High Proliferation Predicts Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Early Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Lluch, Ana; Ribelles, Nuria; Anton-Torres, Antonio; Sanchez-Rovira, Pedro; Albanell, Joan; Calvo, Lourdes; García-Asenjo, Jose Antonio Lopez; Palacios, Jose; Chacon, Jose Ignacio; Ruiz, Amparo; De la Haba-Rodriguez, Juan; Segui-Palmer, Miguel A.; Cirauqui, Beatriz; Margeli, Mireia; Plazaola, Arrate; Barnadas, Agusti; Casas, Maribel; Caballero, Rosalia; Carrasco, Eva; Rojo, Federico

2016-01-01

Background. In the neoadjuvant setting, changes in the proliferation marker Ki67 are associated with primary endocrine treatment efficacy, but its value as a predictor of response to chemotherapy is still controversial. Patients and Methods. We analyzed 262 patients with centralized basal Ki67 immunohistochemical evaluation derived from 4 GEICAM (Spanish Breast Cancer Group) clinical trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. The objective was to identify the optimal threshold for Ki67 using the receiver-operating characteristic curve method to maximize its predictive value for chemotherapy benefit. We also evaluated the predictive role of the defined Ki67 cutoffs for molecular subtypes defined by estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Results. A basal Ki67 cutpoint of 50% predicted pathological complete response (pCR). Patients with Ki67 >50% achieved a pCR rate of 40% (36 of 91) versus a pCR rate of 19% in patients with Ki67 ≤50% (33 of 171) (p = .0004). Ki67 predictive value was especially relevant in ER-HER2− and ER-HER2+ patients (pCR rates of 42% and 64%, respectively, in patients with Ki67 >50% versus 15% and 45%, respectively, in patients with Ki67 ≤50%; p = .0337 and .3238, respectively). Both multivariate analyses confirmed the independent predictive value of the Ki67 cutpoint of 50%. Conclusion. Basal Ki67 proliferation index >50% should be considered an independent predictive factor for pCR reached after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, suggesting that cell proliferation is a phenomenon closely related to chemosensitivity. These findings could help to identify a group of patients with a potentially favorable long-term prognosis. Implications for Practice: The use of basal Ki67 status as a predictive factor of chemotherapy benefit could facilitate the identification of a patient subpopulation with high probability of achieving pathological complete response when treated with primary chemotherapy, and thus with a potentially favorable long-term prognosis. PMID:26786263

Statistical Approaches for Spatiotemporal Prediction of Low Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fangmann, A.; Haberlandt, U.

2017-12-01

An adequate assessment of regional climate change impacts on streamflow requires the integration of various sources of information and modeling approaches. This study proposes simple statistical tools for inclusion into model ensembles, which are fast and straightforward in their application, yet able to yield accurate streamflow predictions in time and space. Target variables for all approaches are annual low flow indices derived from a data set of 51 records of average daily discharge for northwestern Germany. The models require input of climatic data in the form of meteorological drought indices, derived from observed daily climatic variables, averaged over the streamflow gauges' catchments areas. Four different modeling approaches are analyzed. Basis for all pose multiple linear regression models that estimate low flows as a function of a set of meteorological indices and/or physiographic and climatic catchment descriptors. For the first method, individual regression models are fitted at each station, predicting annual low flow values from a set of annual meteorological indices, which are subsequently regionalized using a set of catchment characteristics. The second method combines temporal and spatial prediction within a single panel data regression model, allowing estimation of annual low flow values from input of both annual meteorological indices and catchment descriptors. The third and fourth methods represent non-stationary low flow frequency analyses and require fitting of regional distribution functions. Method three is subject to a spatiotemporal prediction of an index value, method four to estimation of L-moments that adapt the regional frequency distribution to the at-site conditions. The results show that method two outperforms successive prediction in time and space. Method three also shows a high performance in the near future period, but since it relies on a stationary distribution, its application for prediction of far future changes may be problematic. Spatiotemporal prediction of L-moments appeared highly uncertain for higher-order moments resulting in unrealistic future low flow values. All in all, the results promote an inclusion of simple statistical methods in climate change impact assessment.

Utility of a routine urinalysis in children who require clean intermittent catheterization.

PubMed

Forster, C S; Haslam, D B; Jackson, E; Goldstein, S L

2017-10-01

Children who require clean intermittent catheterization (CIC) frequently have positive urine cultures. However, diagnosing a urinary tract infection (UTI) can be difficult, as there are no standardized criteria. Routine urinalysis (UA) has good predictive accuracy for UTI in the general pediatric population, but data are limited on the utility of routine UA in the population of children who require CIC. To determine the utility of UA parameters (e.g. leukocyte esterase, nitrites, and pyuria) to predict UTI in children who require CIC, and identify a composite UA that has maximal predictive accuracy for UTI. A cross-sectional study of 133 children who required CIC, and had a UA and urine culture sent as part of standard of care. Patients in the no-UTI group all had UA and urine cultures sent as part of routine urodynamics, and were asymptomatic. Patients included in the UTI group had growth of ≥50,000 colony-forming units/ml of a known uropathogen on urine culture, in addition to two or more of the following symptoms: fever, abdominal pain, back pain, foul-smelling urine, new or worse incontinence, and pain with catheterization. Categorical data were compared using Chi-squared test, and continuous data were compared with Student's t-test. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for individual UA parameters, as well as the composite UA. Logistic regression was performed on potential composite UA models to identify the model that best fit the data. There was a higher proportion of patients in the no-UTI group with negative leukocyte esterase compared with the UTI group. There was a higher proportion of patients with UTI who had large leukocyte esterase and positive nitrites compared with the no-UTI group (Summary Figure). There was no between-group difference in urinary white blood cells. Positive nitrites were the most specific (84.4%) for UTI. None of the parameters had a high positive predictive value, while all had high negative predictive values. The composite model with the best Akaike information criterion was >10 urinary white blood cells and either moderate or large leukocyte esterase, which had a positive predictive value of 33.3 and a negative predictive value of 90.4. Routine UA had limited sensitivity, but moderate specificity, in predicting UTI in children who required CIC. The composite UA and moderate or large leukocyte esterase both had good negative predictive values for the outcome of UTI. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The value of SYNTAX score in predicting outcome patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention].

PubMed

Gao, Yue-chun; Yu, Xian-peng; He, Ji-qiang; Chen, Fang

2012-01-01

To assess the value of SYNTAX score to predict major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) among patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. 190 patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with Cypher select drug-eluting stent were enrolled. SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score were retrospectively calculated. Our clinical Endpoint focused on MACCE, a composite of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and repeat revascularization. The value of SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score to predict MACCE were studied respectively. 29 patients were observed to suffer from MACCE, accounting 18.5% of the overall 190 patients. MACCE rates of low (≤ 20.5), intermediate (21.0 - 31.0), and high (≥ 31.5) tertiles according to SYNTAX score were 9.1%, 16.2% and 30.9% respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that SYNTAX score was the independent predictor of MACCE. MACCE rates of low (≤ 19.5), intermediate (19.6 - 29.1), and high (≥ 29.2) tertiles according to clinical SYNTAX score were 14.9%, 9.8% and 30.6% respectively. Both univariate and multivariate analysis showed that clinical SYNTAX score was the independent predictor of MACCE. ROC analysis showed both SYNTAX score (AUC = 0.667, P = 0.004) and clinical SYNTAX score (AUC = 0.636, P = 0.020) had predictive value of MACCE. Clinical SYNTAX score failed to show better predictive ability than the SYNTAX score. Both SYNTAX score and clinical SYNTAX score could be independent risk predictors for MACCE among patients with three-vessel or left-main coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Clinical SYNTAX score failed to show better predictive ability than the SYNTAX score in this group of patients.

Antisocial Behavior and Interpersonal Values in High School Students

PubMed Central

Molero Jurado, María del Mar; Pérez Fuentes, María del Carmen; Carrión Martínez, José J.; Luque de la Rosa, Antonio; Garzón Fernández, Anabella; Martos Martínez, África; Simón Márquez, Maria del Mar; Barragán Martín, Ana B.; Gázquez Linares, José J.

2017-01-01

This article analyzes the characteristics of antisocial behavior and interpersonal values of high school students (Compulsory Secondary Education) (CSE), the profile of students with high levels of antisocial behavior with regard to interpersonal values, and possible protection from antisocial behavior that interpersonal values could provide. The Interpersonal Values Questionnaire was used to assess interpersonal values, and the Antisocial-Delinquent Behaviors Questionnaire was employed to assess antisocial behaviors. The sample was made up of 885 CSE students aged 14–17. The results revealed a greater prevalence of antisocial behaviors among males and fourth-year CSE students. Moreover, antisocial behaviors were more frequent among participants with high scores in Stimulation, Recognition, Independence, and Leadership and low scores in Conformity and Benevolence. Lastly, logistic regression analyses showed that low scores in Conformity and Benevolence and high scores in Independence predicted high scores in antisocial behavior. The possibility of identifying certain interpersonal values which could positively or negatively affect the appearance of antisocial behavior during adolescence is discussed. PMID:28261124

Prediction of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia Using 1st Day Serum Bilirubin Levels.

PubMed

Spoorthi, S M; Dandinavar, Siddappa F; Ratageri, Vinod H; Wari, Prakash K

2018-02-15

The study was conducted on Full term neonates with birth weight > 2.5 kg born in KIMS, Hubballi with an objective to determine the first day Total Serum Bilirubin (TSB) value so as to predict subsequent development of significant hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates. All enrolled neonates were sampled for TSB and blood group on Day 1 at 20 ± 4 h and then followed up clinically by Kramer's rule and when the clinical jaundice by Kramer's rule was >10 mg/dl, TSB levels were repeated. A total of 180 newborns were enrolled for the study and 165 babies completed the study. Out of these, 17(10.3%) babies had significant hyperbilirubinemia by day 5 of life. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve, a cut off TSB value of 6.15 mg/dl was determined with sensitivity of 82.4%, specificity of 81.8%, positive predictive value of 32.8%, negative predictive value 97.6%. In term neonates, the first day total bilirubin level at 20 ± 4 h of life <6.15 predicts the low risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia with high probability.

P1033Echocardiographic predictive model of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after abdominal surgery.

PubMed

Demirevska, L; Gotchev, D

2016-12-01

and purpose: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent complication post high-risk abdominal surgery in elderly patients. This study aimed to develop a predictive model of POAF based on preoperative transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) findings in these patients. We conducted a prospective study of 300 consecutive patients, age ≥ 65 years (mean age 72±6 years, 61% men), who underwent high-risk abdominal surgery under general anesthesia. Preoperative TTE was performed in all patients, including tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). We measured the time interval between the onset of the P-wave on ECG and a point of the peak-A wave on TDI from the lateral mitral annulus (PA lateral) and septal mitral annulus (PA septal). Left atrial (LA) dyssynchrony was measured by subtracting the PA septal from PA lateral. Right ventricular systolic pressure was estimated by using the tricuspid regurgitation jet (TRJ) Doppler velocity method. The primary endpoint was the occurance of new-onset POAF. Thirty-seven (12%) patients developed POAF. Multiple echocardiographic parameters were measured and tested in different combinations. The final model included the following variables with cutoff points predictive of POAF: PA lateral > 139 ms (69% sensitivity, 92% specificity), LA dyssynchrony > 35 ms (78% sensitivity, 89% specificity), and TRJ Doppler velocity >2.6 m/s (89% sensitivity, 64% specificity). A value of 0 was assigned when the result was below the cutoff point and a value of 1 if above the cutoff point. Coding of these three variables in the following order: PA lateral- TRJ Doppler- left atrial dyssynchrony can predict the probability of POAF. The model showed a postive predictive value of 79% and a negative predictive value of 95%. A model using three echocardiographic variables: PA lateral, LA dyssynchrony and TRJ Doppler velocity, can predict the incidence of POAF after high-risk abdominal surgery. The model can be used preoperatively to identify high-risk patients that would need aggressive prophylactic treatment. PA lateral >139 ms-TRJ Doppler velocity >2.6 m/s-LA dyssynchrony >35 msProbability of POAF0- 0- 0; 0- 1- 0No0- 0- 1; 0- 1- 1; 1- 0- 0; 1- 0- 1; 1- 1- 0; 1- 1- 1Yes. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: Journals.permissions@oup.com.

Performance characteristics of prostate-specific antigen density and biopsy core details to predict oncological outcome in patients with intermediate to high-risk prostate cancer underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Yashi, Masahiro; Nukui, Akinori; Tokura, Yuumi; Takei, Kohei; Suzuki, Issei; Sakamoto, Kazumasa; Yuki, Hideo; Kambara, Tsunehito; Betsunoh, Hironori; Abe, Hideyuki; Fukabori, Yoshitatsu; Nakazato, Yoshimasa; Kaji, Yasushi; Kamai, Takao

2017-06-23

Many urologic surgeons refer to biopsy core details for decision making in cases of localized prostate cancer (PCa) to determine whether an extended resection and/or lymph node dissection should be performed. Furthermore, recent reports emphasize the predictive value of prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) for further risk stratification, not only for low-risk PCa, but also for intermediate- and high-risk PCa. This study focused on these parameters and compared respective predictive impact on oncologic outcomes in Japanese PCa patients. Two-hundred and fifty patients with intermediate- and high-risk PCa according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) classification, that underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy at a single institution, and with observation periods of longer than 6 months were enrolled. None of the patients received hormonal treatments including antiandrogens, luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogues, or 5-alpha reductase inhibitors preoperatively. PSAD and biopsy core details, including the percentage of positive cores and the maximum percentage of cancer extent in each positive core, were analyzed in association with unfavorable pathologic results of prostatectomy specimens, and further with biochemical recurrence. The cut-off values of potential predictive factors were set through receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses. In the entire cohort, a higher PSAD, the percentage of positive cores, and maximum percentage of cancer extent in each positive core were independently associated with advanced tumor stage ≥ pT3 and an increased index tumor volume > 0.718 ml. NCCN classification showed an association with a tumor stage ≥ pT3 and a Gleason score ≥8, and the attribution of biochemical recurrence was also sustained. In each NCCN risk group, these preoperative factors showed various associations with unfavorable pathological results. In the intermediate-risk group, the percentage of positive cores showed an independent predictive value for biochemical recurrence. In the high-risk group, PSAD showed an independent predictive value. PSAD and biopsy core details have different performance characteristics for the prediction of oncologic outcomes in each NCCN risk group. Despite the need for further confirmation of the results with a larger cohort and longer observation, these factors are important as preoperative predictors in addition to the NCCN classification for a urologic surgeon to choose a surgical strategy.

Validity of electromyographic fatigue threshold as a noninvasive method for tracking changes in ventilatory threshold in college-aged men.

PubMed

Kendall, Kristina L; Smith, Abbie E; Graef, Jennifer L; Walter, Ashley A; Moon, Jordan R; Lockwood, Christopher M; Beck, Travis W; Cramer, Joel T; Stout, Jeffrey R

2010-01-01

The submaximal electromyographic fatigue threshold test (EMG(FT)) has been shown to be highly correlated to ventilatory threshold (VT) as determined from maximal graded exercise tests (GXTs). Recently, a prediction equation was developed using the EMG(FT) value to predict VT. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine if this new equation could accurately track changes in VT after high-intensity interval training (HIIT). Eighteen recreationally trained men (mean +/- SD; age 22.4 +/- 3.2 years) performed a GXT to determine maximal oxygen consumption rate (V(O2)peak) and VT using breath-by-breath spirometry. Participants also completed a discontinuous incremental cycle ergometer test to determine their EMGFT value. A total of four 2-minute work bouts were completed to obtain 15-second averages of the electromyographic amplitude. The resulting slopes from each successive work bout were used to calculate EMG(FT). The EMG(FT) value from each participant was used to estimate VT from the recently developed equation. All participants trained 3 days a week for 6 weeks. Training consisted of 5 sets of 2-minute work bouts with 1 minute of rest in between. Repeated-measures analysis of variance indicated no significant difference between actual and predicted VT values after 3 weeks of training. However, there was a significant difference between the actual and predicted VT values after 6 weeks of training. These findings suggest that the EMG(FT) may be useful when tracking changes in VT after 3 weeks of HIIT in recreationally trained individuals. However, the use of EMG(FT) to predict VT does not seem to be valid for tracking changes after 6 weeks of HIIT. At this time, it is not recommended that EMG(FT) be used to predict and track changes in VT.

Quantitative signal intensity alteration in infrapatellar fat pad predict incident radiographic osteoarthritis: the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

PubMed

Wang, Kang; Ding, Changhai; Hannon, Michael J; Chen, Zhongshan; Kwoh, C Kent; Hunter, David J

2018-04-12

To determine if infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) signal intensity (SI) measures are predictive of incident radiographic osteoarthritis (iROA) over 4 years in the OA Initiative (OAI) study. Case knees (n=355) defined by iROA were matched one-to-one by gender, age and radiographic status with control knees. T2-weighted MR images were assessed at P0 (the visit when iROA was found on radiograph), P-1 (1 year prior to P0) and baseline, and utilized to assess IPFP SI semi-automatically using MATLAB. Conditional logistic regression analyses were used to assess risk of iROA associated with IPFP SI alteration after adjustment for covariates. Participants were on average 60.2 years old, predominantly female (66.7%) and overweight (mean BMI: 28.3). Baseline IPFP measures including mean value and standard deviation of IPFP SI [Mean(IPFP), sDev(IPFP)] (HR, 95%CI: 5.2, 1.1 to 23.6 and 5.7, 2.2 to 14.5, respectively), mean value and standard deviation of IPFP high SI [Mean(H), sDev(H)] (HR, 95%CI: 3.3, 1.7 to 6.4 and 3.1, 1.3 to 7.7, respectively), median value and upper quartile value of IPFP high SI [Median(H), UQ(H)], and clustering effect of high SI [Clustering factor(H)] were associated with iROA during 4 years. All P-1 IPFP measures were associated with iROA after 12 months. P-0 IPFP SI measures were all associated with ROA. The quantitative segmentation of high signal in IPFP is confirming previous work based on semiquantitative assessment suggesting its predictive validity. The IPFP high SI alteration could be an important imaging biomarker to predict the occurrence of radiographic OA. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Grandmothers’ Familism Values, Adolescent Mothers’ Parenting Efficacy, and Children’s Well-Being

PubMed Central

Zeiders, Katharine H.; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.; Jahromi, Laudan B.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.

2016-01-01

The current study examined intergenerational processes related to familism values among grandmothers, adolescent mothers, and their children. Mexican-origin families (N = 180) participated in in-home interviews during adolescent mothers’ third trimester of pregnancy and 10-, 24-, 48-, and 60-months postpartum. Using longitudinal path analyses, we linked grandmothers’ familism values and behaviors to adolescent mothers’ parenting processes and, in turn, their child’s well-being, taking into account developmentally relevant needs of adolescent mothers. Results revealed that grandmothers’ familism values before the birth of the baby predicted child-rearing support and communication within the grandmother-adolescent mother dyad after the birth of the baby. Support, but not communication, was in turn predictive of adolescent mothers’ parenting self-efficacy, but only at high levels of autonomy granting within the grandmother-adolescent mother dyad. Finally, adolescent mothers’ parenting self-efficacy predicted children’s greater social competence (48 months old), which in turn, predicted greater academic functioning (60 months old). Our findings shed light on the behavioral correlates of familism values within Mexican-origin families with adolescent mothers and highlight the need to consider factors that are developmentally salient (e.g., autonomy) when understanding how familism behaviors benefit adolescent mothers and their children. PMID:26075734

[Rapid determination of componential contents and calorific value of selected agricultural biomass feedstocks using spectroscopic technology].

PubMed

Sheng, Kui-Chuan; Shen, Ying-Ying; Yang, Hai-Qing; Wang, Wen-Jin; Luo, Wei-Qiang

2012-10-01

Rapid determination of biomass feedstock properties is of value for the production of biomass densification briquetting fuel with high quality. In the present study, visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectroscopy was employed to build prediction models of componential contents, i. e. moisture, ash, volatile matter and fixed-carbon, and calorific value of three selected species of agricultural biomass feedstock, i. e. pine wood, cedar wood, and cotton stalk. The partial least squares (PLS) cross validation results showed that compared with original reflection spectra, PLS regression models developed for first derivative spectra produced higher prediction accuracy with coefficients of determination (R2) of 0.97, 0.94 and 0.90, and residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 6.57, 4.00 and 3.01 for ash, volatile matter and moisture, respectively. Good prediction accuracy was achieved with R2 of 0.85 and RPD of 2.55 for fixed carbon, and R2 of 0.87 and RPD of 2.73 for calorific value. It is concluded that the Vis-NIR spectroscopy is promising as an alternative of traditional proximate analysis for rapid determination of componential contents and calorific value of agricultural biomass feedstock

[Determination of prognostic value of the OESIL risk score at 6 months in a Colombian cohort with syncope evaluated in the emergency department; first Latin American experience].

PubMed

Díaz-Tribaldos, Diana Carolina; Mora, Guillermo; Olaya, Alejandro; Marín, Jorge; Sierra Matamoros, Fabio

2017-07-14

To establish the prognostic value, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the OESIL syncope risk score to predict the presentation of severe outcomes (death, invasive interventions, and readmission) after 6 months of observation in adults who consulted the emergency department due to syncope. Observational, prospective, and multicentre study with enrolment of subjects older than 18 years, who consulted in the emergency department due to syncope. A record was mad of the demographic and clinical information of all patients. The OESIL risk score was calculated, and severe patient outcomes were followed up during a 6 month period using telephone contact. A total of 161 patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. A score above or equal to 2 in the risk score, classified as high risk, was present in 72% of the patients. The characteristics of the risk score to predict the combined outcome of mortality, invasive interventions, and readmission for a score above or equal to 2 were 75.7, 30.5, 43.1, and 64.4% for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, respectively. A score above or equal to 2 in the OESIL risk score applied in Colombian population was of limited use to predict the studied severe outcomes. This score will be unable to discriminate between patients that benefit of early admission and further clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of painful popping for a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus in middle-aged to older Asian patients.

PubMed

Bae, Ji-Hoon; Paik, Nak Hwan; Park, Gyu-Won; Yoon, Jung-Ro; Chae, Dong-Ju; Kwon, Jae Ho; Kim, Jong In; Nha, Kyung-Wook

2013-03-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a single event of painful popping in the presence of a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus in middle-aged to older Asian patients. We conducted a retrospective review of medical records of 936 patients who underwent arthroscopic surgeries for an isolated medial meniscus tear between January 2000 and December 2010. There were 332 men and 604 women with a mean age of 41 years (range, 25 to 66 years). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of a painful popping sensation for a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus were calculated. Arthroscopy confirmed the presence of posterior root tears of the medial menisci in 237 of 936 patients (25.3%). A single event of a painful popping sensation was present in 86 of these 936 patients (9.1%). Of these 86 patients with a painful popping sensation, 83 (96.5%) were categorized as having an isolated posterior root tear of the medial meniscus. The positive predictive value of a painful popping sensation in identifying a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus was 96.5%, the negative predictive value was 81.8%, the sensitivity was 35.0%, the specificity was 99.5%, and the diagnostic accuracy was 77.9%. A single event of painful popping can be a highly predictive clinical sign of a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus in the middle-aged to older Asian population. However, it has low sensitivity for the detection of a posterior root tear of the medial meniscus. Level IV, therapeutic case series. Copyright © 2013 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Determination and prediction for vapor pressures of organophosphate flame retardants by gas chromatography].

PubMed

Wang, Qingzhi; Zhao, Hongxia; Wang, Yan; Xie, Qing; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

2017-09-08

Organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) are ubiquitous in the environment. To better understand and predict their environmental transport and fate, well-defined physicochemical properties are required. Vapor pressures ( P ) of 14 OPFRs were estimated as a function of temperature ( T ) by gas chromatography (GC), while 1,1,1-trichioro-2,2-bis (4-chlorophenyl) ethane ( p,p '-DDT) was acted as a reference substance. Their log P GC values and internal energies of phase transfer (△ vap H ) ranged from -6.17 to -1.25 and 74.1 kJ/mol to 122 kJ/mol, respectively. Substitution pattern and molar volume ( V M ) were found to be capable of influencing log P GC values of the OPFRs. The halogenated alkyl-OPFRs had lower log P GC values than aryl-or alkyl-OPFRs. The bigger the molar volume was, the smaller the log P GC value was. In addition, a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model of log P GC versus different relative retention times (RRTs) was developed with a high cross-validated value ( Q 2 cum ) of 0.946, indicating a good predictive ability and stability. Therefore, the log P GC values of the OPFRs without standard substance can be predicted by using their RRTs on different GC columns.

Determination and prediction of octanol-air partition coefficients for organophosphate flame retardants.

PubMed

Wang, Qingzhi; Zhao, Hongxia; Wang, Yan; Xie, Qing; Chen, Jingwen; Quan, Xie

2017-11-01

Organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs) have attracted wide concerns due to their toxicities and ubiquitous occurrence in the environment. In this work, Octanol-air partition coefficient (K OA ) for 14 OPFRs including 4 halogenated alkyl-, 5 aryl- and 5 alkyl-OPFRs, were estimated as a function of temperature using a gas chromatographic retention time (GC-RT) method. Their log K OA-GC values and internal energies of phase transfer (Δ OA U/kJmol -1 ) ranged from 8.03 to 13.0 and from 69.7 to 149, respectively. Substitution pattern and molar volume (V M ) were found to be capable of influencing log K OA-GC values of OPFRs. The halogenated alkyl-OPFRs had higher log K OA-GC values than aryl- or alkyl-OPFRs. The bigger the molar volume was, the greater the log K OA-GC values increased. In addition, a predicted model of log K OA-GC versus different relative retention times (RRTs) was developed with a high cross-validated value (Q 2 (cum) ) of 0.951, indicating a good predictive ability and stability. Therefore, the log K OA-GC values of the remaining OPFRs can be predicted by using their RRTs on different GC columns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Nodal Staging Using miRNA Expression in Lung Cancer Patients by Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Transbronchial Needle Aspiration.

PubMed

Inage, Terunaga; Nakajima, Takahiro; Itoga, Sakae; Ishige, Takayuki; Fujiwara, Taiki; Sakairi, Yuichi; Wada, Hironobu; Suzuki, Hidemi; Iwata, Takekazu; Chiyo, Masako; Yoshida, Shigetoshi; Matsushita, Kazuyuki; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Yoshino, Ichiro

2018-06-13

The limited negative predictive value of endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) has often been discussed. The aim of this study was to identify a highly sensitive molecular biomarker for lymph node staging by EBUS-TBNA. Five microRNAs (miRNAs) (miR-200a, miR-200b, miR-200c, miR-141, and let-7e) were selected as biomarker candidates for the detection of nodal metastasis in a miRNA expression analysis. After having established a cutoff level of expression for each marker to differentiate malignant from benign lymph nodes among surgically dissected lymph nodes, the cutoff level was applied to snap-frozen EBUS-TBNA samples. Archived formalin-fixed paraffin- embedded (FFPE) samples rebiopsied by EBUS-TBNA after induction chemoradiotherapy were also analyzed. The expression of all candidate miRNAs was significantly higher in metastatic lymph nodes than in benign ones (p < 0.05) among the surgical samples. miR-200c showed the highest diagnostic yield, with a sensitivity of 95.4% and a specificity of 100%. When the cutoff value for miR-200c was applied to the snap-frozen EBUS-TBNA samples, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy were 97.4, 81.8, 95.0, 90.0, and 94.0%, respectively. For restaging FFPE EBUS- TBNA samples, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy were 100, 60.0, 80.0, 100, and 84.6%, respectively. Among the restaged samples, 4 malignant lymph nodes were false negative by EBUS-TBNA, but they were accurately identified by miR-200c. miR-200c can be used as a highly sensitive molecular staging biomarker that will enhance nodal staging of lung cancer. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Ability of a 5-minute electrocardiography (ECG) for predicting arrhythmias in Doberman Pinschers with cardiomyopathy in comparison with a 24-hour ambulatory ECG.

PubMed

Wess, G; Schulze, A; Geraghty, N; Hartmann, K

2010-01-01

Ventricular premature contractions (VPCs) are common in the occult stage of cardiomyopathy in Doberman Pinschers. Although the gold standard for detecting arrhythmia is the 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography (ECG) (Holter), this method is more expensive, time-consuming and often not as readily available as common ECG. Comparison of 5-minute ECGs with Holter examinations. Eight hundred and seventy-five 5-minute ECGs and Holter examinations of 431 Doberman Pinschers. Each examination included a 5-minute ECG and Holter examination. A cut-off value of > 100 VPCs/24 hours using Holter was considered diagnostic for the presence of cardiomyopathy. Statistical evaluation included calculation of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Holter examinations revealed > 100 VPCs/24 hours in 204/875 examinations. At least 1 VPC during a 5-minute ECG was detected in 131 (64.2%) of these 204 examinations. No VPCs were found in the 5-minute ECG in 73 (35.8%) examinations of affected Doberman Pinschers. A 5-minute ECG with at least 1 VPC as cut-off had a sensitivity of 64.2%, a specificity of 96.7%, a positive predictive value of 85.6% and a negative predictive value of 89.9% for the presence of > 100 VPCs/24 hours. A 5-minute ECG is a rather insensitive method for detecting arrhythmias in Doberman Pinschers. However, the occurrence of at least 1 VPC in 5 minutes strongly warrants further examination of the dog, because specificity (96.7%) and positive predictive value (85.6%) are high and could suggest occult cardiomyopathy.

Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

PubMed

Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

2010-08-17

Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

Falls Risk Prediction for Older Inpatients in Acute Care Medical Wards: Is There an Interest to Combine an Early Nurse Assessment and the Artificial Neural Network Analysis?

PubMed

Beauchet, O; Noublanche, F; Simon, R; Sekhon, H; Chabot, J; Levinoff, E J; Kabeshova, A; Launay, C P

2018-01-01

Identification of the risk of falls is important among older inpatients. This study aims to examine performance criteria (i.e.; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy) for fall prediction resulting from a nurse assessment and an artificial neural networks (ANNs) analysis in older inpatients hospitalized in acute care medical wards. A total of 848 older inpatients (mean age, 83.0±7.2 years; 41.8% female) admitted to acute care medical wards in Angers University hospital (France) were included in this study using an observational prospective cohort design. Within 24 hours after admission of older inpatients, nurses performed a bedside clinical assessment. Participants were separated into non-fallers and fallers (i.e.; ≥1 fall during hospitalization stay). The analysis was conducted using three feed forward ANNs (multilayer perceptron [MLP], averaged neural network, and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]). Seventy-three (8.6%) participants fell at least once during their hospital stay. ANNs showed a high specificity, regardless of which ANN was used, and the highest value reported was with MLP (99.8%). In contrast, sensitivity was lower, with values ranging between 98.4 to 14.8%. MLP had the highest accuracy (99.7). Performance criteria for fall prediction resulting from a bedside nursing assessment and an ANNs analysis was associated with a high specificity but a low sensitivity, suggesting that this combined approach should be used more as a diagnostic test than a screening test when considering older inpatients in acute care medical ward.

Prediction of breakdown strength of cellulosic insulating materials using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sakshi; Mohsin, M. M.; Masood, Aejaz

In this research work, a few sets of experiments have been performed in high voltage laboratory on various cellulosic insulating materials like diamond-dotted paper, paper phenolic sheets, cotton phenolic sheets, leatheroid, and presspaper, to measure different electrical parameters like breakdown strength, relative permittivity, loss tangent, etc. Considering the dependency of breakdown strength on other physical parameters, different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are proposed for the prediction of breakdown strength. The ANN model results are compared with those obtained experimentally and also with the values already predicted from an empirical relation suggested by Swanson and Dall. The reported results indicated that the breakdown strength predicted from the ANN model is in good agreement with the experimental values.

Prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with stage III and IV colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae Hyun; Lee, Jun Yeop; Kim, Hae Koo; Lee, Jin Wook; Jung, Sung Gyu; Jung, Kyoungwon; Kim, Sung Eun; Moon, Won; Park, Moo In; Park, Seun Ja

2017-01-01

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS Between April 1996 and December 2010, medical records from a total of 1868 patients with CRC were retrospectively reviewed. The values of simple inflammatory markers including NLR and PLR in predicting the long-term outcomes of these patients were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. RESULTS The median follow-up duration was 46 mo (interquartile range, 22-73). The estimation of NLR and PLR was based on the time of diagnosis. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) were independent risk factors predicting poor long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. However, high NLR and high PLR were not prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II CRC. CONCLUSION In this study, we identified that high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) are useful prognostic factors to predict long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. PMID:28210087

Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach—A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China

PubMed Central

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Chuanrong; He, Qingsong; Liu, Yaolin

2017-01-01

Ecological security is an important research topic, especially urban ecological security. As highly populated eco-systems, cities always have more fragile ecological environments. However, most of the research on urban ecological security in literature has focused on evaluating current or past status of the ecological environment. Very little literature has carried out simulation or prediction of future ecological security. In addition, there is even less literature exploring the urban ecological environment at a fine scale. To fill-in the literature gap, in this study we simulated and predicted urban ecological security at a fine scale (district level) using an improved Cellular Automata (CA) approach. First we used the pressure-state-response (PSR) method based on grid-scale data to evaluate urban ecological security. Then, based on the evaluation results, we imported the geographically weighted regression (GWR) concept into the CA model to simulate and predict urban ecological security. We applied the improved CA approach in a case study—simulating and predicting urban ecological security for the city of Wuhan in Central China. By comparing the simulated ecological security values from 2010 using the improved CA model to the actual ecological security values of 2010, we got a relatively high value of the kappa coefficient, which indicates that this CA model can simulate or predict well future development of ecological security in Wuhan. Based on the prediction results for 2020, we made some policy recommendations for each district in Wuhan. PMID:28617348

Microwave spectroscopy of carbonyl sulfide isotopologues solvated with 2-5 para-hydrogen molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raston, Paul L.; Knapp, Chrissy J.; Jäger, Wolfgang

2017-11-01

We report high resolution Fourier transform microwave spectra of (pH2)N-OC32S and (pH2)N-OC34S clusters in the size range from N = 2 to 5. Observation of the J = 1-0 and J = 2-1 transitions allowed for determination of the rotational (B) and quartic distortion (D) constants for each N. Comparison with theory (Paesani et al., 2003) reveals that the predicted B values are of good quality (all within 100 MHz of the actual values), while the predicted D values are an order of magnitude too high. Results from linear molecule Kraitchman analyses for clusters with N ≤ 5 are consistent with theoretical calculations which suggest that the initial pH2 density accumulates in a donut ring about the carbon-oxygen bond.

A novel prediction approach for antimalarial activities of Trimethoprim, Pyrimethamine, and Cycloguanil analogues using extremely randomized trees.

PubMed

Nattee, Cholwich; Khamsemanan, Nirattaya; Lawtrakul, Luckhana; Toochinda, Pisanu; Hannongbua, Supa

2017-01-01

Malaria is still one of the most serious diseases in tropical regions. This is due in part to the high resistance against available drugs for the inhibition of parasites, Plasmodium, the cause of the disease. New potent compounds with high clinical utility are urgently needed. In this work, we created a novel model using a regression tree to study structure-activity relationships and predict the inhibition constant, K i of three different antimalarial analogues (Trimethoprim, Pyrimethamine, and Cycloguanil) based on their molecular descriptors. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to study the structure-activity relationships of all three analogues combined. The most relevant descriptors and appropriate parameters of the regression tree are harvested using extremely randomized trees. These descriptors are water accessible surface area, Log of the aqueous solubility, total hydrophobic van der Waals surface area, and molecular refractivity. Out of all possible combinations of these selected parameters and descriptors, the tree with the strongest coefficient of determination is selected to be our prediction model. Predicted K i values from the proposed model show a strong coefficient of determination, R 2 =0.996, to experimental K i values. From the structure of the regression tree, compounds with high accessible surface area of all hydrophobic atoms (ASA_H) and low aqueous solubility of inhibitors (Log S) generally possess low K i values. Our prediction model can also be utilized as a screening test for new antimalarial drug compounds which may reduce the time and expenses for new drug development. New compounds with high predicted K i should be excluded from further drug development. It is also our inference that a threshold of ASA_H greater than 575.80 and Log S less than or equal to -4.36 is a sufficient condition for a new compound to possess a low K i . Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Diagnostic efficiency of decline rate of signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient with different b values for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions on diffusion-weighted 3.0T magnetic resonance imaging].

PubMed

Jiang, Jing; Liu, Wanhua; Ye, Yuanyuan; Wang, Rui; Li, Fengfang; Peng, Chengyu

2014-06-17

To investigate the diagnostic efficiency of decline rate of signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient with different b values for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions on diffusion-weighted 3.0 T magnetic resonance imaging. A total of 152 patients with 162 confirmed histopathologically breast lesions (85 malignant and 77 benign) underwent 3.0 T diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. Four b values (0, 400, 800 and 1 000 s/mm²) were used. The signal intensity and ADC values of breast lesions were measured respectively. The signal intensity decline rate (SIDR) and apparent diffusion coefficient decline rate (ADCDR) were calculated respectively. SIDR = (signal intensity of lesions with low b value-signal intensity of lesions with high b value)/signal intensity of lesions with low b value, ADCDR = (ADC value of lesions with low b value-ADC value of lesions with high b value) /ADC value of lesions with low b value. The independent sample t-test was employed for statistical analyses and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for evaluating the diagnosis efficiency of SIDR and ADCDR values. Significant differences were observed in SIDR between benign and malignant breast lesions with b values of 0-400, 400-800 and 800-1 000 s/mm². The sensitivities of SIDR for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions were 61.2%, 68.2% and 67.1%, the specificities 74.0%, 85.7% and 67.5%, the diagnosis accordance rates 67.3%, 76.5% and 67.3%, the positive predictive values 72.2%, 84.1% and 69.5% and the negative predictive values 63.3%, 71.0% and 65.0% respectively. Significant differences were observed in ADCDR between benign and malignant breast lesions with b values of 400-800 s/mm² and 800-1 000 s/mm². The sensitivities of SDR for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions were 80.0% and 65.9%, the specificities 72.7% and 65.0%, the diagnostic accordance rates 76.5% and 65.4%, the positive predictive values 76.4% and 67.5% and the negative predictive values 76.7% and 63.3% respectively. The decline rate of signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient with different b values may be used for differentiating benign and malignant breast lesions. And the diagnostic efficiency with b values of 400-800 s/mm² is optimal.

Enthalpy measurement of coal-derived liquids. Combined quarterly technical progress reports, April-June 1979 and July-September 1979. [Effect of association

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kidnay, A.J.; Yesavage, V.F.

1979-01-01

Enthalpy measurements on a coal-derived naphtha and middle distillate, both produced by the SRC-II process, were made using flow calorimetry. The accuracy of the measurements, as reported by Omid, was within +- 1% of the measured enthalpy differences, ..delta..H. Experimental data for the naphtha were obtained over a pressure range of 100-300 psia and temperatures from 148/sup 0/ to 456/sup 0/F. The middle distillate enthalpy measurements were made in the pressure and temperature ranges of 130 to 1000 psia, and 157/sup 0/ to 675/sup 0/F, respectively. The methods of prediction of enthalpy developed for petroleum fractions were unsatisfactory when appliedmore » to the above data. A negative bias was observed in the predicted enthalpy values for several of the coal-liquids. Based on these results, it was theorized that the high experimental enthalpy values for coal-liquids were due to an energy of association attributed, primarily, to hydrogen-bonding effects. The petroleum-fraction enthalpy correlations were then tested on the experimental data for pure compounds, both associating and non-associating. The predicted values compared very well with the experimental results for non-associating model compounds. However, for associating model compounds the predicted enthalpy values were considerably lower than their experimental data. This served to confirm the basic premise that the high experimental enthalpy values, for model compounds and coal liquids, were a direct consequence of an energy of association attributed, primarily, to hydrogen-bonding effects.« less

Impaction and Prediction: Does Ureteral Wall Thickness Affect the Success of Medical Expulsive Therapy in Pediatric Ureteral Stones?

PubMed

Tuerxun, Aierken; Batuer, Abudukahaer; Erturhan, Sakip; Eryildirim, Bilal; Camur, Emre; Sarica, Kemal

2017-01-01

The study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of ureteral wall thickness (UWT) and stone-related parameters for medical expulsive therapy (MET) success with an alpha blocker in pediatric upper ureteral stones. A total of 35 children receiving MET ureteral stones (<10 mm) were evaluated. Patients were divided into 2 subgroups where MET was successful in 18 children (51.4%) and unsuccessful in 17 children (48.6%). Prior to management, stone size, stone density (in Hounsfield unit), degree of hydronephrosis, and UWT were evaluated with patient demographics and recorded. The possible predictive value of these parameters in success rates and time to stone expulsion were evaluated in a comparative manner between the 2 groups. The overall mean patient age and stone size values were 5.40 ± 0.51 years and 6.24 ± 0.28 mm, respectively. Regarding the predictive values of these parameters for the success of MET, while stone size and UWT were found to be highly predictive for MET success, patients age, body mass index, stone density, and degree of hydronephrosis had no predictive value on this aspect. Our findings indicated that some stone and anatomical factors may be used to predict the success of MET in pediatric ureteral stones in an effective manner. With this approach, unnecessary use of these drugs that may cause a delay in removing the stone will be avoided, and the possible adverse effects of obstruction as well as stone-related clinical symptoms could be minimized. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Carotid bruit for detection of hemodynamically significant carotid stenosis: the Northern Manhattan Study

PubMed Central

Ratchford, Elizabeth V.; Jin, Zhezhen; Di Tullio, Marco R.; Salameh, Maya J.; Homma, Shunichi; Gan, Robert; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Sacco, Ralph L.; Rundek, Tatjana

2009-01-01

Objective The prevalence of carotid bruits and the utility of auscultation for predicting carotid stenosis are not well known. We aimed to establish the prevalence of carotid bruits and the diagnostic accuracy of auscultation for detection of hemodynamically significant carotid stenosis, using carotid duplex as the gold standard. Methods The Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS) is a prospective multiethnic community-based cohort designed to examine the incidence of stroke and other vascular events and the association between various vascular risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis. Of the stroke-free cohort (n=3298), 686 were examined for carotid bruits and underwent carotid duplex. Main outcome measures included prevalence of carotid bruits and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of auscultation for prediction of ipsilateral carotid stenosis. Results Among 686 subjects with a mean age of 68.2 ± 9.4 years, the prevalence of ≥60% carotid stenosis as detected by ultrasound was 2.2% and the prevalence of carotid bruits was 4.1%. For detection of carotid stenosis, sensitivity of auscultation was 56%, specificity was 98%, positive predictive value was 25%, negative predictive value was 99% and overall accuracy was 97.5%. Discussion In this ethnically diverse cohort, the prevalence of carotid bruits and hemodynamically significant carotid stenosis was low. Sensitivity and positive predictive value were also low, and the 44% false-negative rate suggests that auscultation is not sufficient to exclude carotid stenosis. While the presence of a bruit may still warrant further evaluation with carotid duplex, ultrasonography may be considered in high-risk asymptomatic patients, irrespective of findings on auscultation. PMID:19133168

Diagnostic accuracy of 3.0 T magnetic resonance imaging for the detection of meniscus posterior root pathology.

PubMed

LaPrade, Robert F; Ho, Charles P; James, Evan; Crespo, Bernardo; LaPrade, Christopher M; Matheny, Lauren M

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of 3 T MRI, including sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, for detection of posterior medial and lateral meniscus root tears and avulsions. All patients who had a 3 T MRI of the knee, followed by arthroscopic surgery, were included in this study. Arthroscopy was considered the gold standard. Meniscus root tears diagnosed at arthroscopy and on MRI were defined as a complete meniscus root detachment within 9 mm of the root. All surgical data were collected prospectively and stored in a data registry. MRI exams were reported prospectively by a musculoskeletal radiologist and reviewed retrospectively. There were 287 consecutive patients (156 males, 131 females; mean age 41.7 years) in this study. Prevalence of meniscus posterior root tears identified at arthroscopy was 9.1, 5.9% for medial and 3.5% for lateral root tears (one patient had both). Sensitivity was 0.770 (95% CI 0.570, 0.901), specificity was 0.729 (95% CI 0.708, 0.741), positive predictive value was 0.220 (95% CI 0.163, 0.257) and negative predictive value was 0.970 (95% CI 0.943, 0.987). For medial root tears, sensitivity was 0.824 (95% CI 0.569, 0.953), specificity was 0.800 (95% CI 0.784, 0.808), positive predictive value was 0.206 (95% CI 0.142, 0.238) and negative predictive value was 0.986 (95% CI 0.967, 0.996). For lateral meniscus posterior root tears, sensitivity was 0.600 (95% CI 0.281, 0.860), specificity was 0.903 (95% CI 0.891, 0.912), positive predictive value was 0.181 (95% CI 0.085, 0.261) and negative predictive value was 0.984 (95% CI 0.972, 0.994). This study demonstrated moderate sensitivity and specificity of 3 T MRI to detect posterior meniscus root tears. The negative predictive value of 3 T MRI to detect posterior meniscus root tears was high; however, the positive predictive value was low. Sensitivity was higher for medial root tears, indicating a higher risk of missing lateral root tears on MRI. Imaging has an important role in identifying meniscus posterior horn root tears; however, some root tears may not be identified until arthroscopy. Prognostic study (diagnostic), Level II.

Prognostic and predictive value of centrally reviewed Ki-67 labeling index in postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer: results from Breast International Group Trial 1-98 comparing adjuvant tamoxifen with letrozole.

PubMed

Viale, Giuseppe; Giobbie-Hurder, Anita; Regan, Meredith M; Coates, Alan S; Mastropasqua, Mauro G; Dell'Orto, Patrizia; Maiorano, Eugenio; MacGrogan, Gaëtan; Braye, Stephen G; Ohlschlegel, Christian; Neven, Patrick; Orosz, Zsolt; Olszewski, Wojciech P; Knox, Fiona; Thürlimann, Beat; Price, Karen N; Castiglione-Gertsch, Monica; Gelber, Richard D; Gusterson, Barry A; Goldhirsch, Aron

2008-12-01

To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of Ki-67 labeling index (LI) in a trial comparing letrozole (Let) with tamoxifen (Tam) as adjuvant therapy in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98 randomly assigned 8,010 patients to four treatment arms comparing Let and Tam with sequences of each agent. Of 4,922 patients randomly assigned to receive 5 years of monotherapy with either agent, 2,685 had primary tumor material available for central pathology assessment of Ki-67 LI by immunohistochemistry and had tumors confirmed to express estrogen receptors after central review. The prognostic and predictive value of centrally measured Ki-67 LI on disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed among these patients using proportional hazards modeling, with Ki-67 LI values dichotomized at the median value of 11%. Higher values of Ki-67 LI were associated with adverse prognostic factors and with worse DFS (hazard ratio [HR; high:low] = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.4 to 2.3). The magnitude of the treatment benefit for Let versus Tam was greater among patients with high tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72) than among patients with low tumor Ki-67 LI (HR [Let:Tam] = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.15; interaction P = .09). Ki-67 LI is confirmed as a prognostic factor in this study. High Ki-67 LI levels may identify a patient group that particularly benefits from initial Let adjuvant therapy.

[Geographical distribution of the Serum creatinine reference values of healthy adults].

PubMed

Wei, De-Zhi; Ge, Miao; Wang, Cong-Xia; Lin, Qian-Yi; Li, Meng-Jiao; Li, Peng

2016-11-20

To explore the relationship between serum creatinine (Scr) reference values in healthy adults and geographic factors and provide evidence for establishing Scr reference values in different regions. We collected 29 697 Scr reference values from healthy adults measured by 347 medical facilities from 23 provinces, 4 municipalities and 5 autonomous regions. We chose 23 geographical factors and analyzed their correlation with Scr reference values to identify the factors correlated significantly with Scr reference values. According to the Principal component analysis and Ridge regression analysis, two predictive models were constructed and the optimal model was chosen after comparison of the two model's fitting degree of predicted results and measured results. The distribution map of Scr reference values was drawn using the Kriging interpolation method. Seven geographic factors, including latitude, annual sunshine duration, annual average temperature, annual average relative humidity, annual precipitation, annual temperature range and topsoil (silt) cation exchange capacity were found to correlate significantly with Scr reference values. The overall distribution of Scr reference values featured a pattern that the values were high in the south and low in the north, varying consistently with the latitude change. The data of the geographic factors in a given region allows the prediction of the Scr values in healthy adults. Analysis of these geographical factors can facilitate the determination of the reference values specific to a region to improve the accuracy for clinical diagnoses.

Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence and antisocial behaviour in 73 samples involving 24 827 people: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fazel, Seena; Singh, Jay P; Doll, Helen; Grann, Martin

2012-07-24

To investigate the predictive validity of tools commonly used to assess the risk of violence, sexual, and criminal behaviour. Systematic review and tabular meta-analysis of replication studies following PRISMA guidelines. PsycINFO, Embase, Medline, and United States Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts. We included replication studies from 1 January 1995 to 1 January 2011 if they provided contingency data for the offending outcome that the tools were designed to predict. We calculated the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, the number needed to detain to prevent one offence, as well as a novel performance indicator-the number safely discharged. We investigated potential sources of heterogeneity using metaregression and subgroup analyses. Risk assessments were conducted on 73 samples comprising 24,847 participants from 13 countries, of whom 5879 (23.7%) offended over an average of 49.6 months. When used to predict violent offending, risk assessment tools produced low to moderate positive predictive values (median 41%, interquartile range 27-60%) and higher negative predictive values (91%, 81-95%), and a corresponding median number needed to detain of 2 (2-4) and number safely discharged of 10 (4-18). Instruments designed to predict violent offending performed better than those aimed at predicting sexual or general crime. Although risk assessment tools are widely used in clinical and criminal justice settings, their predictive accuracy varies depending on how they are used. They seem to identify low risk individuals with high levels of accuracy, but their use as sole determinants of detention, sentencing, and release is not supported by the current evidence. Further research is needed to examine their contribution to treatment and management.

Prognostic value of three-dimensional ultrasound for fetal hydronephrosis

PubMed Central

WANG, JUNMEI; YING, WEIWEN; TANG, DAXING; YANG, LIMING; LIU, DONGSHENG; LIU, YUANHUI; PAN, JIAOE; XIE, XING

2015-01-01

The present study evaluated the prognostic value of three-dimensional ultrasound for fetal hydronephrosis. Pregnant females with fetal hydronephrosis were enrolled and a novel three-dimensional ultrasound indicator, renal parenchymal volume/kidney volume, was introduced to predict the postnatal prognosis of fetal hydronephrosis in comparison with commonly used ultrasound indicators. All ultrasound indicators of fetal hydronephrosis could predict whether postnatal surgery was required for fetal hydronephrosis; however, the predictive performance of renal parenchymal volume/kidney volume measurements as an individual indicator was the highest. In conclusion, ultrasound is important in predicting whether postnatal surgery is required for fetal hydronephrosis, and the three-dimensional ultrasound indicator renal parenchymal volume/kidney volume has a high predictive performance. Furthermore, the majority of cases of fetal hydronephrosis spontaneously regress subsequent to birth, and the regression time is closely associated with ultrasound indicators. PMID:25667626

Evaluation of prognostic and predictive value of microtubule associated protein tau in two independent cohorts.

PubMed

Baquero, Maria T; Lostritto, Karen; Gustavson, Mark D; Bassi, Kimberly A; Appia, Franck; Camp, Robert L; Molinaro, Annette M; Harris, Lyndsay N; Rimm, David L

2011-11-02

Microtubule associated proteins (MAPs) endogenously regulate microtubule stabilization and have been reported as prognostic and predictive markers for taxane response. The microtubule stabilizer, MAP-tau, has shown conflicting results. We quantitatively assessed MAP-tau expression in two independent breast cancer cohorts to determine prognostic and predictive value of this biomarker. MAP-tau expression was evaluated in the retrospective Yale University breast cancer cohort (n = 651) using tissue microarrays and also in the TAX 307 cohort, a clinical trial randomized for TAC versus FAC chemotherapy (n = 140), using conventional whole tissue sections. Expression was measured using the AQUA method for quantitative immunofluorescence. Scores were correlated with clinicopathologic variables, survival, and response to therapy. Assessment of the Yale cohort using Cox univariate analysis indicated an improved overall survival (OS) in tumors with a positive correlation between high MAP-tau expression and overall survival (OS) (HR = 0.691, 95% CI = 0.489-0.974; P = 0.004). Kaplan Meier analysis showed 10-year survival for 65% of patients with high MAP-tau expression compared to 52% with low expression (P = .006). In TAX 307, high expression was associated with significantly longer median time to tumor progression (TTP) regardless of treatment arm (33.0 versus 23.4 months, P = 0.010) with mean TTP of 31.2 months. Response rates did not differ by MAP-tau expression (P = 0.518) or by treatment arm (P = 0.584). Quantitative measurement of MAP-tau expression has prognostic value in both cohorts, with high expression associated with longer TTP and OS. Differences by treatment arm or response rate in low versus high MAP-tau groups were not observed, indicating that MAP-tau is not associated with response to taxanes and is not a useful predictive marker for taxane-based chemotherapy.

Triglycerides to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio Can Predict Impaired Glucose Tolerance in Young Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

PubMed

Song, Do Kyeong; Lee, Hyejin; Sung, Yeon Ah; Oh, Jee Young

2016-11-01

The triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio could be related to insulin resistance (IR). We previously reported that Korean women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) had a high prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). We aimed to determine the cutoff value of the TG/HDL-C ratio for predicting IR and to examine whether the TG/HDL-C ratio is useful for identifying individuals at risk of IGT in young Korean women with PCOS. We recruited 450 women with PCOS (24±5 yrs) and performed a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). IR was assessed by a homeostasis model assessment index over that of the 95th percentile of regular-cycling women who served as the controls (n=450, 24±4 yrs). The cutoff value of the TG/HDL-C ratio for predicting IR was 2.5 in women with PCOS. Among the women with PCOS who had normal fasting glucose (NFG), the prevalence of IGT was significantly higher in the women with PCOS who had a high TG/HDL-C ratio compared with those with a low TG/HDL-C ratio (15.6% vs. 5.6%, p<0.05). The cutoff value of the TG/HDL-C ratio for predicting IR was 2.5 in young Korean women with PCOS, and women with NFG and a high TG/HDL-C ratio had a higher prevalence of IGT. Therefore, Korean women with PCOS with a TG/HDL-C ratio >2.5 are recommended to be administered an OGTT to detect IGT even if they have NFG.

Triglycerides to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio Can Predict Impaired Glucose Tolerance in Young Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Song, Do Kyeong; Lee, Hyejin; Sung, Yeon-Ah

2016-01-01

Purpose The triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio could be related to insulin resistance (IR). We previously reported that Korean women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) had a high prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). We aimed to determine the cutoff value of the TG/HDL-C ratio for predicting IR and to examine whether the TG/HDL-C ratio is useful for identifying individuals at risk of IGT in young Korean women with PCOS. Materials and Methods We recruited 450 women with PCOS (24±5 yrs) and performed a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). IR was assessed by a homeostasis model assessment index over that of the 95th percentile of regular-cycling women who served as the controls (n=450, 24±4 yrs). Results The cutoff value of the TG/HDL-C ratio for predicting IR was 2.5 in women with PCOS. Among the women with PCOS who had normal fasting glucose (NFG), the prevalence of IGT was significantly higher in the women with PCOS who had a high TG/HDL-C ratio compared with those with a low TG/HDL-C ratio (15.6% vs. 5.6%, p<0.05). Conclusion The cutoff value of the TG/HDL-C ratio for predicting IR was 2.5 in young Korean women with PCOS, and women with NFG and a high TG/HDL-C ratio had a higher prevalence of IGT. Therefore, Korean women with PCOS with a TG/HDL-C ratio >2.5 are recommended to be administered an OGTT to detect IGT even if they have NFG. PMID:27593868

Large calf circumference indicates non-sarcopenia despite body mass

PubMed Central

Kusaka, Satomi; Takahashi, Tetsuya; Hiyama, Yoshinori; Kusumoto, Yasuaki; Tsuchiya, Junko; Umeda, Masaru

2017-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the calf circumference as a tool for screening sarcopenia. [Subjects and Methods] One hundred sixteen community-dwelling elderly females were enrolled. Calf circumference of the dominant leg was measured using a plastic measuring tape. Subjects were divided into 3 groups based on body mass index (BMI); subjects with the values for BMI <18.5 kg/m2; those with BMI 18.5 to 25.0; those with BMI ≥25.0 kg/m2. Positive predictive value and negative predictive value of sarcopenia were calculated based on the obtained cut off values of calf circumference and the diagnosis of sarcopenia in each group. [Results] Prevalence rate of sarcopenia was 9.4% (n=10). Cut off value of the calf circumference was 32.8 cm (sensitivity: 73.0%, specificity: 80.0%, AUC: 0.792). Each BMI group showed high negative predictive value of sarcopenia based on the calf circumference cut off value of 32.8 cm. [Conclusion] These results suggested that to identify non-sarcopenia by larger calf circumference is more reasonable and useful than to identify sarcopenia due to the smaller calf circumference regardless of BMI. PMID:29200625

Integrating content and structure aspects of the self: traits, values, and self-improvement.

PubMed

Roccas, Sonia; Sagiv, Lilach; Oppenheim, Shani; Elster, Andrey; Gal, Avigail

2014-04-01

Research on the structure of the self has mostly developed separately from research on its content. Taking an integrative approach, we studied two structural aspects of the self associated with self-improvement--self-discrepancies and perceived mutability--by focusing on two content areas, traits and values. In Studies 1A-C, 337 students (61% female) reported self-discrepancies in values and traits, with the finding that self-discrepancies in values are smaller than in traits. In Study 2 (80 students, 41% female), we experimentally induced either high or low mutability and measured perceived mutability of traits and values. We found that values are perceived as less mutable than traits. In Study 3, 99 high school students (60% female) reported their values, traits, and the extent to which they wish to change them. We found that values predict the wish to change traits, whereas traits do not predict the wish to change values. In Study 4, 172 students (47.7% female) were assigned to one of four experimental conditions in which they received feedback denoting either uniqueness or similarity to others, on either their values or their traits. The results indicated that feedback that one's values (but not traits) are unique affected self-esteem. Integrating between theories of content and structure of the self can contribute to the development of both. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for serodiagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle.

PubMed

Bagut, Elena Tatiana; Cambier, Ludivine; Heinen, Marie-Pierre; Cozma, Vasile; Monod, Michel; Mignon, Bernard

2013-08-01

The aim of this study was to develop an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serological diagnosis of ringworm infection in cattle. We used available recombinant forms of Trichophyton rubrum dipeptidyl peptidase V (TruDppV) and T. rubrum leucin aminopeptidase 2 (TruLap2), which are 98% identical to Trichophyton verrucosum orthologues. Field serum samples from 135 cattle with ringworm infection, as confirmed by direct microscopy, fluorescence microscopy, and PCR, and from 55 cattle without any apparent skin lesions or history of ringworm infection that served as negative controls were used. Sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values were determined to evaluate the diagnostic value of our ELISA. Overall, the ELISAs based on recombinant TruDppV and TruLap2 discriminated well between infected animals and healthy controls. Highly significant differences (P < 0.0001, Mann-Whitney U test) were noted between optical density values obtained when sera from infected versus control cattle were tested. The ELISA developed for the detection of specific antibodies against DppV gave 89.6% sensitivity, 92.7% specificity, a 96.8% positive predictive value, and a 78.4% negative predictive value. The recombinant TruLap2-based ELISA displayed 88.1% sensitivity, 90.9% specificity, a 95.9% positive predictive value, and a 75.7% negative predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ELISA based on recombinant antigens for assessing immune responses to ringworm infection in cattle; it is particularly suitable for epidemiological studies and also for the evaluation of vaccines and/or vaccination procedures.

Colossal dielectric response in all-ceramic percolative composite 0.65Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-0.35PbTiO3-Pb2Ru2O6.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobnar, V.; Hrovat, M.; Holc, J.; Filipič, C.; Levstik, A.; Kosec, M.

2009-02-01

An exceptionally high dielectric constant was obtained by making use of the conductive percolative phenomenon in all-ceramic composite, comprising of Pb2Ru2O6.5 with high electrical conductivity denoted as the conductive phase and ferroelectric 0.65Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3-0.35PbTiO3 (PMN-PT) perovskite systems. Structural analysis revealed a uniform distribution of conductive ceramic grains within the PMN-PT matrix. Consequently, the dielectric response in the PMN-PT-Pb2Ru2O6.5 composite follows the predictions of the percolation theory. Thus, close to the percolation point exceptionally high values of the dielectric constant were obtained—values higher than 105 were detected at room temperature at 1 kHz. Fit of the data, obtained for samples of different compositions, revealed critical exponent and percolation point, which reasonably agree with the theoretically predicted values.

Electrolyte and Metabolic Disturbances in Ebola Patients during a Clinical Trial, Guinea, 2015

PubMed Central

Bah, Elhadj Ibrahima; Haba, Nyankoye; Delamou, Alexandre; Camara, Bienvenu Salim; Olivier, Kadio Jean-Jacques; De Clerck, Hilde; Nordenstedt, Helena; Semple, Malcolm G.; Van Herp, Michel; Buyze, Jozefien; De Crop, Maaike; Van Den Broucke, Steven; Lynen, Lutgarde; De Weggheleire, Anja

2016-01-01

By using data from a 2015 clinical trial on Ebola convalescent-phase plasma in Guinea, we assessed the prevalence of electrolyte and metabolic abnormalities at admission and their predictive value to stratify patients into risk groups. Patients underwent testing with a point-of-care device. We used logistic regression to construct a prognostic model and summarized the predictive value with the area under the receiver operating curve. Abnormalities were common among patients, particularly hypokalemia, hypocalcemia, hyponatremia, raised creatinine, high anion gap, and anemia. Besides age and PCR cycle threshold value, renal dysfunction, low calcium levels, and low hemoglobin levels were independently associated with increased risk for death. A prognostic model using all 5 factors was highly discriminatory (area under the receiver operating curve 0.95; 95% CI 0.90–0.99) and enabled the definition of risk criteria to guide targeted care. Most patients had a very low (<5%) or very high (>80%) risk for death. PMID:27869610

Electrolyte and Metabolic Disturbances in Ebola Patients during a Clinical Trial, Guinea, 2015.

PubMed

van Griensven, Johan; Bah, Elhadj Ibrahima; Haba, Nyankoye; Delamou, Alexandre; Camara, Bienvenu Salim; Olivier, Kadio Jean-Jacques; De Clerck, Hilde; Nordenstedt, Helena; Semple, Malcolm G; Van Herp, Michel; Buyze, Jozefien; De Crop, Maaike; Van Den Broucke, Steven; Lynen, Lutgarde; De Weggheleire, Anja

2016-12-01

By using data from a 2015 clinical trial on Ebola convalescent-phase plasma in Guinea, we assessed the prevalence of electrolyte and metabolic abnormalities at admission and their predictive value to stratify patients into risk groups. Patients underwent testing with a point-of-care device. We used logistic regression to construct a prognostic model and summarized the predictive value with the area under the receiver operating curve. Abnormalities were common among patients, particularly hypokalemia, hypocalcemia, hyponatremia, raised creatinine, high anion gap, and anemia. Besides age and PCR cycle threshold value, renal dysfunction, low calcium levels, and low hemoglobin levels were independently associated with increased risk for death. A prognostic model using all 5 factors was highly discriminatory (area under the receiver operating curve 0.95; 95% CI 0.90-0.99) and enabled the definition of risk criteria to guide targeted care. Most patients had a very low (<5%) or very high (>80%) risk for death.

High-Area-Ratio Rocket Nozzle at High Combustion Chamber Pressure: Experimental and Analytical Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jankovsky, Robert S.; Smith, Timothy D.; Pavli, Albert J.

1999-01-01

Experimental data were obtained on an optimally contoured nozzle with an area ratio of 1025:1 and on a truncated version of this nozzle with an area ratio of 440:1. The nozzles were tested with gaseous hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellants at combustion chamber pressures of 1800 to 2400 psia and mixture ratios of 3.89 to 6.15. This report compares the experimental performance, heat transfer, and boundary layer total pressure measurements with theoretical predictions of the current Joint Army, Navy, NASA, Air Force (JANNAF) developed methodology. This methodology makes use of the Two-Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) nozzle performance code. Comparisons of the TDK-predicted performance to experimentally attained thrust performance indicated that both the vacuum thrust coefficient and the vacuum specific impulse values were approximately 2.0-percent higher than the turbulent prediction for the 1025:1 configurations, and approximately 0.25-percent higher than the turbulent prediction for the 440:1 configuration. Nozzle wall temperatures were measured on the outside of a thin-walled heat sink nozzle during the test fittings. Nozzle heat fluxes were calculated front the time histories of these temperatures and compared with predictions made with the TDK code. The heat flux values were overpredicted for all cases. The results range from nearly 100 percent at an area ratio of 50 to only approximately 3 percent at an area ratio of 975. Values of the integral of the heat flux as a function of nozzle surface area were also calculated. Comparisons of the experiment with analyses of the heat flux and the heat rate per axial length also show that the experimental values were lower than the predicted value. Three boundary layer rakes mounted on the nozzle exit were used for boundary layer measurements. This arrangement allowed total pressure measurements to be obtained at 14 different distances from the nozzle wall. A comparison of boundary layer total pressure profiles and analytical predictions show good agreement for the first 0.5 in. from the nozzle wall; but the further into the core flow that measurements were taken, the more that TDK overpredicted the boundary layer thickness.

Quantifying confidence in density functional theory predictions of magnetic ground states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houchins, Gregory; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian

2017-10-01

Density functional theory (DFT) simulations, at the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) level, are being routinely used for material discovery based on high-throughput descriptor-based searches. The success of descriptor-based material design relies on eliminating bad candidates and keeping good candidates for further investigation. While DFT has been widely successfully for the former, oftentimes good candidates are lost due to the uncertainty associated with the DFT-predicted material properties. Uncertainty associated with DFT predictions has gained prominence and has led to the development of exchange correlation functionals that have built-in error estimation capability. In this work, we demonstrate the use of built-in error estimation capabilities within the BEEF-vdW exchange correlation functional for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the magnetic ground state of solids. We demonstrate this approach by calculating the uncertainty estimate for the energy difference between the different magnetic states of solids and compare them against a range of GGA exchange correlation functionals as is done in many first-principles calculations of materials. We show that this estimate reasonably bounds the range of values obtained with the different GGA functionals. The estimate is determined as a postprocessing step and thus provides a computationally robust and systematic approach to estimating uncertainty associated with predictions of magnetic ground states. We define a confidence value (c-value) that incorporates all calculated magnetic states in order to quantify the concurrence of the prediction at the GGA level and argue that predictions of magnetic ground states from GGA level DFT is incomplete without an accompanying c-value. We demonstrate the utility of this method using a case study of Li-ion and Na-ion cathode materials and the c-value metric correctly identifies that GGA-level DFT will have low predictability for NaFePO4F . Further, there needs to be a systematic test of a collection of plausible magnetic states, especially in identifying antiferromagnetic (AFM) ground states. We believe that our approach of estimating uncertainty can be readily incorporated into all high-throughput computational material discovery efforts and this will lead to a dramatic increase in the likelihood of finding good candidate materials.

Evaluation of Columbia, USMARC Composite, Suffolk, and Texel rams as terminal sires in an extensive rangeland production system: VII. Accuracy of ultrasound predictors and their association with carcass weight, yield, and value.

PubMed

Notter, D R; Mousel, M R; Leeds, T D; Zerby, H N; Moeller, S J; Lewis, G S; Taylor, J B

2014-06-01

Use of lamb BW or chilled carcass weights (CCW), live-animal ultrasound or direct carcass measurements of backfat thickness (BF; mm) and LM area (LMA; cm(2)), and carcass body wall thickness (BWall; mm) to predict carcass yield and value was evaluated using 512 crossbred lambs produced over 3 yr by mating Columbia, U.S. Meat Animal Research Center Composite, Suffolk, and Texel rams to adult Rambouillet ewes. Lambs were harvested at 3 BW endpoints within each year. The predictive value of 3 to 5 additional linear measurements of live-animal or carcass size and shape was also evaluated. Residual correlations (adjusted for effects of year, breed, and harvest group) between ultrasound and direct measurements were 0.69 for BF and 0.65 for LMA. Increasing ultrasound or carcass LMA had positive effects (P < 0.001) on yield of chilled carcass (i.e., on dressing percentage) and, at comparable CCW, on weight of high-value cuts (rack, loin, leg, and sirloin) before trimming (HVW), weight of trimmed high-value cuts (trimmed rack and loin and trimmed boneless leg and sirloin; TrHVW), and carcass value before (CVal) and after (TrCVal) trimming of high-value cuts. By contrast, ultrasound and direct measures of BF had positive effects on yields of CCW and on HVW and CVal but large negative effects on TrHVW and TrCVal. After adjusting for BW at scanning, increases of 1 mm in ultrasound BF or 1 cm(2) in ultrasound LMA were associated with changes of US$-0.32 (P < 0.10) and $1.62 (P < 0.001), respectively, in TrCVal. Carcass BWall was generally superior to carcass BF as a predictor of TrHVW and TrCVal. Carcass LMA was superior to ultrasound LMA but carcass BF was inferior to ultrasound BF for prediction of carcass yield and value. Increasing LMA thus would be expected to improve carcass yield and value. Addition of linear measurements of live-animal or carcass size and shape to the prediction model reduced residual SD (RSD) for TrHVW and TrCVal by 0.4 to 2.2%, but subsequent removal of ultrasound or direct measures of BF and LMA from the prediction model increased RSD by 7.4 to 12.2%. Measurements of CCW, LMA, BF, and BWall would thus be appropriate to support programs for value-based marketing of lamb carcasses and are superior to systems based only on measurements of size and shape in unribbed carcasses.

Impact of the endoscopist's experience on the negative predictive value of capsule endoscopy.

PubMed

Velayos Jiménez, Benito; Alcaide Suárez, Noelia; González Redondo, Guillermo; Fernández Salazar, Luis; Aller de la Fuente, Rocío; Del Olmo Martínez, Lourdes; Ruiz Rebollo, Lourdes; González Hernández, José Manuel

2017-01-01

The impact of the accumulated experience of the capsule endoscopy (CE) reader on the accuracy of this test is discussed. To determine whether the negative predictive value of CE findings changes along the learning curve. We reviewed the first 900 CE read by 3 gastroenterologists experienced in endoscopy over 8 years. These 900 CE were divided into 3 groups (300 CE each): group 1 consisted of the sum of the first 100 CE read by each of the 3 endoscopists; group 2, the sum of the second 100 and groups 3, the sum of the third 100. Patients with normal CE were monitored for at least 28 months to estimate the negative predictive value. A total of 54 (18%) CE in group 1, 58 (19.3%) in group 2 and 47 (15.6%) in group 3 were normal, although only 34 patients in group 1, 38 in group 2 and 36 in group 3 with normal CE completed follow up and were eventually studied. The negative predictive value was 88.2% in group 1, 89.5% in group 2 and 97% in group 3 (P>.05). The negative predictive value tended to increase, but remained high and did not change significantly after the first 100 when readers are experienced in conventional endoscopy and have preliminary specific training. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

Screening Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Based Prediction Model for Assessing Immediate Therapeutic Response to Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Guided High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound Ablation of Uterine Fibroids.

PubMed

Kim, Young-sun; Lim, Hyo Keun; Park, Min Jung; Rhim, Hyunchul; Jung, Sin-Ho; Sohn, Insuk; Kim, Tae-Joong; Keserci, Bilgin

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to fit and validate screening magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based prediction models for assessing immediate therapeutic responses of uterine fibroids to MRI-guided high-intensity focused ultrasound (MR-HIFU) ablation. Informed consent from all subjects was obtained for our institutional review board-approved study. A total of 240 symptomatic uterine fibroids (mean diameter, 6.9 cm) in 152 women (mean age, 43.3 years) treated with MR-HIFU ablation were retrospectively analyzed (160 fibroids for training, 80 fibroids for validation). Screening MRI parameters (subcutaneous fat thickness [mm], x1; relative peak enhancement [%] in semiquantitative perfusion MRI, x2; T2 signal intensity ratio of fibroid to skeletal muscle, x3) were used to fit prediction models with regard to ablation efficiency (nonperfused volume/treatment cell volume, y1) and ablation quality (grade 1-5, poor to excellent, y2), respectively, using the generalized estimating equation method. Cutoff values for achievement of treatment intent (efficiency >1.0; quality grade 4/5) were determined based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Prediction performances were validated by calculating positive and negative predictive values. Generalized estimating equation analyses yielded models of y1 = 2.2637 - 0.0415x1 - 0.0011x2 - 0.0772x3 and y2 = 6.8148 - 0.1070x1 - 0.0050x2 - 0.2163x3. Cutoff values were 1.312 for ablation efficiency (area under the curve, 0.7236; sensitivity, 0.6882; specificity, 0.6866) and 4.019 for ablation quality (0.8794; 0.7156; 0.9020). Positive and negative predictive values were 0.917 and 0.500 for ablation efficiency and 0.978 and 0.600 for ablation quality, respectively. Screening MRI-based prediction models for assessing immediate therapeutic responses of uterine fibroids to MR-HIFU ablation were fitted and validated, which may reduce the risk of unsuccessful treatment.

Working memory and the strategic control of attention in older and younger adults.

PubMed

Hayes, Melissa G; Kelly, Andrew J; Smith, Anderson D

2013-03-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of aging on the strategic control of attention and the extent to which this relationship is mediated by working memory capacity (WMC). This study also sought to investigate boundary conditions wherein age differences in selectivity may occur. Across 2 studies, the value-directed remembering task used by Castel and colleagues (Castel, A. D., Balota, D. A., & McCabe, D. P. (2009). Memory efficiency and the strategic control of attention at encoding: Impairments of value-directed remembering in Alzheimer's Disease. Neuropsychology, 23, 297-306) was modified to include value-directed forgetting. Study 2 incorporated valence as an additional task demand, and age differences were predicted in both studies due to increased demands of controlled processing. Automated operation span and Stroop span were included as working memory measures, and working memory was predicted to mediate performance. Results confirmed these predictions, as older adults were less efficient in maximizing selectivity scores when high demands were placed on selectivity processes, and working memory was found to mediate performance on this task. When list length was increased from previous studies and participants were required to actively forget negative-value words, older adults were not able to selectively encode high-value information to the same degree as younger adults. Furthermore, WMC appears to support the ability to selectively encode information.

Towards a chromatographic similarity index to establish localised quantitative structure-retention relationships for retention prediction. II Use of Tanimoto similarity index in ion chromatography.

PubMed

Park, Soo Hyun; Talebi, Mohammad; Amos, Ruth I J; Tyteca, Eva; Haddad, Paul R; Szucs, Roman; Pohl, Christopher A; Dolan, John W

2017-11-10

Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships (QSRR) are used to predict retention times of compounds based only on their chemical structures encoded by molecular descriptors. The main concern in QSRR modelling is to build models with high predictive power, allowing reliable retention prediction for the unknown compounds across the chromatographic space. With the aim of enhancing the prediction power of the models, in this work, our previously proposed QSRR modelling approach called "federation of local models" is extended in ion chromatography to predict retention times of unknown ions, where a local model for each target ion (unknown) is created using only structurally similar ions from the dataset. A Tanimoto similarity (TS) score was utilised as a measure of structural similarity and training sets were developed by including ions that were similar to the target ion, as defined by a threshold value. The prediction of retention parameters (a- and b-values) in the linear solvent strength (LSS) model in ion chromatography, log k=a - blog[eluent], allows the prediction of retention times under all eluent concentrations. The QSRR models for a- and b-values were developed by a genetic algorithm-partial least squares method using the retention data of inorganic and small organic anions and larger organic cations (molecular mass up to 507) on four Thermo Fisher Scientific columns (AS20, AS19, AS11HC and CS17). The corresponding predicted retention times were calculated by fitting the predicted a- and b-values of the models into the LSS model equation. The predicted retention times were also plotted against the experimental values to evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the models. The application of a TS threshold of 0.6 was found to successfully produce predictive and reliable QSRR models (Q ext(F2) 2 >0.8 and Mean Absolute Error<0.1), and hence accurate retention time predictions with an average Mean Absolute Error of 0.2min. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of multivariable predictive model for thromboembolic events in lymphoma patients.

PubMed

Antic, Darko; Milic, Natasa; Nikolovski, Srdjan; Todorovic, Milena; Bila, Jelena; Djurdjevic, Predrag; Andjelic, Bosko; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Jelicic, Jelena; Hayman, Suzanne; Mihaljevic, Biljana

2016-10-01

Lymphoma patients are at increased risk of thromboembolic events but thromboprophylaxis in these patients is largely underused. We sought to develop and validate a simple model, based on individual clinical and laboratory patient characteristics that would designate lymphoma patients at risk for thromboembolic event. The study population included 1,820 lymphoma patients who were treated in the Lymphoma Departments at the Clinics of Hematology, Clinical Center of Serbia and Clinical Center Kragujevac. The model was developed using data from a derivation cohort (n = 1,236), and further assessed in the validation cohort (n = 584). Sixty-five patients (5.3%) in the derivation cohort and 34 (5.8%) patients in the validation cohort developed thromboembolic events. The variables independently associated with risk for thromboembolism were: previous venous and/or arterial events, mediastinal involvement, BMI>30 kg/m(2) , reduced mobility, extranodal localization, development of neutropenia and hemoglobin level < 100g/L. Based on the risk model score, the population was divided into the following risk categories: low (score 0-1), intermediate (score 2-3), and high (score >3). For patients classified at risk (intermediate and high-risk scores), the model produced negative predictive value of 98.5%, positive predictive value of 25.1%, sensitivity of 75.4%, and specificity of 87.5%. A high-risk score had positive predictive value of 65.2%. The diagnostic performance measures retained similar values in the validation cohort. Developed prognostic Thrombosis Lymphoma - ThroLy score is more specific for lymphoma patients than any other available score targeting thrombosis in cancer patients. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1014-1019, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Can Eosinophil Count, Platelet Count, and Mean Platelet Volume Be a Positive Predictive Factor in Penile Arteriogenic Erectile Dysfunction Etiopathogenesis?

PubMed Central

Sönmez, Mehmet Giray; Göğer, Yunus Emre; Sönmez, Leyla Öztürk; Aydın, Arif; Balasar, Mehmet; Kara, Cengiz

2016-01-01

Blood count parameters of patients referring with erectile dysfunction (ED) were examined in this study and it was investigated whether eosinophil count (EC), platelet count (PC), and mean platelet volume values among the suspected predictive parameters which may play a role in especially penile arteriogenic ED etiopathogenesis had a contribution on pathogenesis. Patients referring with ED complaint were evaluated. Depending on the medical story, ED degree was determined by measuring International Index of Erectile Function. Penile Doppler ultrasonography was taken in patients suspected to have vasculogenic ED. According to penile Doppler ultrasonography result, patients with arterial deficiency were included in the penile arteriogenic ED group and the patients with normal results were included in the nonvasculogenic ED group. A total of 36 patients participated in the study from the penile arteriogenic ED group and 32 patients from the nonvasculogenic ED group. Compared with the nonvasculogenic ED group, the penile arteriogenic ED group’s low International Index of Erectile Function score, high EC, mean platelet volume and PC values were detected to be statistically significant (p < .001, p = .021, p = .018, p = .034, respectively). No statistically significant difference was observed among the two groups when age, white blood cells, red blood cells, and hemoglobin values were considered. Pansystolic volume velocities were detected as statistically significantly low compared with the nonvasculogenic ED group in the measurements made in 5th, 10th, 15th, and 20th minutes on the right and left sides in the penile arteriogenic ED group. High MPV value and PC is a significant predictive factor for penile arteriogenic ED and vasculogenic ED and high EC is specifically predictive of arteriogenic ED. PMID:27895254

Predictive value of high sensitivity CRP in patients with diastolic heart failure.

PubMed

Michowitz, Yoav; Arbel, Yaron; Wexler, Dov; Sheps, David; Rogowski, Ori; Shapira, Itzhak; Berliner, Shlomo; Keren, Gad; George, Jacob; Roth, Arie

2008-04-25

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been tested in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and mixed results have been obtained with regards to its potential predictive value. However, the role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with diastolic HF is not established. We studied the predictive role of high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) in patients with diastolic HF. HsCRP levels were measured in a cohort of CHF outpatients, 77 patients with diastolic HF and 217 patients with systolic HF. Concentrations were compared to a large cohort of healthy population (n=7701) and associated with the HF admissions and mortality of the patients. Levels of hsCRP did not differ between patients with systolic and diastolic HF and were significantly elevated compared to the cohort of healthy subjects even after adjustment to various clinical parameters (p<0.0001). In patients with diastolic HF, hsCRP levels associated with New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA-FC) (r=0.31 p=0.01). On univariate Cox regression model hsCRP levels independently predicted hospitalizations in patients with systolic but not diastolic HF (p=0.047). HsCRP concentrations are elevated in patients with diastolic HF and correlate with disease severity; their prognostic value in this patient population should be further investigated.

Prognostic value of blood interleukin-6 in the prediction of functional outcome after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bustamante, Alejandro; Sobrino, Tomás; Giralt, Dolors; García-Berrocoso, Teresa; Llombart, Victor; Ugarriza, Iratxe; Espadaler, Marc; Rodríguez, Noelia; Sudlow, Cathie; Castellanos, Mar; Smith, Craig J; Rodríguez-Yánez, Manuel; Waje-Andreassen, Ulrike; Tanne, David; Oto, Jun; Barber, Mark; Worthmann, Hans; Wartenberg, Katja E; Becker, Kyra J; Chakraborty, Baidarbhi; Oh, Seung-Hun; Whiteley, William N; Castillo, José; Montaner, Joan

2014-09-15

We aimed to quantify the association of blood interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations with poor outcome after stroke and its added predictive value over clinical information. Meta-analysis of 24 studies confirmed this association with a weighted mean difference of 3.443 (1.592-5.294) pg/mL, despite high heterogeneity and publication bias. Individual participant data including 4112 stroke patients showed standardized IL-6 levels in the 4th quartile were independently associated with poor outcome (OR=2.346 (1.814-3.033), p<0.0001). However, the additional predictive value of IL-6 was moderate (IDI=1.5%, NRI=5.35%). Overall these results indicate an unlikely translation of IL-6 into clinical practice for this purpose. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gamma Interferon Release Assays for Detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

PubMed Central

Denkinger, Claudia M.; Kik, Sandra V.; Rangaka, Molebogeng X.; Zwerling, Alice; Oxlade, Olivia; Metcalfe, John Z.; Cattamanchi, Adithya; Dowdy, David W.; Dheda, Keertan; Banaei, Niaz

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) can substantially reduce the risk of developing active disease. However, there is no diagnostic gold standard for LTBI. Two tests are available for identification of LTBI: the tuberculin skin test (TST) and the gamma interferon (IFN-γ) release assay (IGRA). Evidence suggests that both TST and IGRA are acceptable but imperfect tests. They represent indirect markers of Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure and indicate a cellular immune response to M. tuberculosis. Neither test can accurately differentiate between LTBI and active TB, distinguish reactivation from reinfection, or resolve the various stages within the spectrum of M. tuberculosis infection. Both TST and IGRA have reduced sensitivity in immunocompromised patients and have low predictive value for progression to active TB. To maximize the positive predictive value of existing tests, LTBI screening should be reserved for those who are at sufficiently high risk of progressing to disease. Such high-risk individuals may be identifiable by using multivariable risk prediction models that incorporate test results with risk factors and using serial testing to resolve underlying phenotypes. In the longer term, basic research is necessary to identify highly predictive biomarkers. PMID:24396134

An investigation of new toxicity test method performance in validation studies: 1. Toxicity test methods that have predictive capacity no greater than chance.

PubMed

Bruner, L H; Carr, G J; Harbell, J W; Curren, R D

2002-06-01

An approach commonly used to measure new toxicity test method (NTM) performance in validation studies is to divide toxicity results into positive and negative classifications, and the identify true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) results. After this step is completed, the contingent probability statistics (CPS), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) are calculated. Although these statistics are widely used and often the only statistics used to assess the performance of toxicity test methods, there is little specific guidance in the validation literature on what values for these statistics indicate adequate performance. The purpose of this study was to begin developing data-based answers to this question by characterizing the CPS obtained from an NTM whose data have a completely random association with a reference test method (RTM). Determining the CPS of this worst-case scenario is useful because it provides a lower baseline from which the performance of an NTM can be judged in future validation studies. It also provides an indication of relationships in the CPS that help identify random or near-random relationships in the data. The results from this study of randomly associated tests show that the values obtained for the statistics vary significantly depending on the cut-offs chosen, that high values can be obtained for individual statistics, and that the different measures cannot be considered independently when evaluating the performance of an NTM. When the association between results of an NTM and RTM is random the sum of the complementary pairs of statistics (sensitivity + specificity, NPV + PPV) is approximately 1, and the prevalence (i.e., the proportion of toxic chemicals in the population of chemicals) and PPV are equal. Given that combinations of high sensitivity-low specificity or low specificity-high sensitivity (i.e., the sum of the sensitivity and specificity equal to approximately 1) indicate lack of predictive capacity, an NTM having these performance characteristics should be considered no better for predicting toxicity than by chance alone.

[Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

PubMed

Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

2017-02-01

The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling. Diagnostic test studies conducted on a sample of children of medium-high socioeconomic level were evaluated using ASQ at least once at 8, 18 and/or 30 months old, and later, between 6 and 9 years old, reevaluated using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (WISC-III). Each ASQ evaluation was recorded independently. WISC-III was standardized, considering underperformance when the total score were under -1 standard deviation. 123 children, corresponding to 174 ASQ assessments (42 of them were 8 months old, 55 were 18 months and 77 were 30 months of age) were included. An area under the ROC curve of 80.7% was obtained, showing higher values at 8 months (98.0%) compared to 18 and 30 months old (78.1 and 79.3%, respectively). Considering different ASQ scoring criteria, a low sensitivity (27.8 to 50.0%), but a high specificity (78.8 to 96.2%) were obtained; the positive predictive value ranged between 21 and 46%, while the negative value was 92.0-93.2%. Conclusion ASQ has low sensitivity but excellent specificity to predict a low cognitive performance during the first years of schooling, being a good alternative to monitor psychomotor development in children who attend the private sector healthcare in our country.

Questionnaire Predictors of Atopy in a US Population Sample: Findings From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005–2006

PubMed Central

Hoppin, Jane A.; Jaramillo, Renee; Salo, Paivi; Sandler, Dale P.; London, Stephanie J.; Zeldin, Darryl C.

2011-01-01

Allergic conditions and biochemical measures are both used to characterize atopy. To assess questionnaires’ ability to predict biochemical measures of atopy, the authors used data on 5 allergic conditions (allergy, hay fever, eczema, rhinitis, and itchy rash) and serum-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels from the 2005–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Atopy was defined as 1 or more positive specific IgEs (≥0.35 kU/L). Questionnaire responses were assessed for sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for atopy. In this population-based US sample, 44% of participants were specific IgE-positive and 53% reported at least 1 allergic condition. Discordance between atopy and allergic conditions was considerable; 37% of persons with atopy reported no allergic condition, and 48% of persons who reported an allergic condition were not atopic. Thus, no combination of self-reported allergic conditions achieved both high sensitivity and high specificity for IgE. The positive predictive value of reported allergic conditions for atopy ranged from 50% for eczema to 72% for hay fever, while the negative predictive value ranged from 57% for eczema to 65% for any condition. Given the high proportion of asymptomatic participants who were specific IgE-positive and persons who reported allergic conditions but were specific IgE-negative, it is unlikely that questionnaires will ever capture the same participants as those found to be atopic by biochemical measures. PMID:21273397

Finite-Temperature Behavior of PdH x Elastic Constants Computed by Direct Molecular Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Zhou, X. W.; Heo, T. W.; Wood, B. C.; ...

2017-05-30

In this paper, robust time-averaged molecular dynamics has been developed to calculate finite-temperature elastic constants of a single crystal. We find that when the averaging time exceeds a certain threshold, the statistical errors in the calculated elastic constants become very small. We applied this method to compare the elastic constants of Pd and PdH 0.6 at representative low (10 K) and high (500 K) temperatures. The values predicted for Pd match reasonably well with ultrasonic experimental data at both temperatures. In contrast, the predicted elastic constants for PdH 0.6 only match well with ultrasonic data at 10 K; whereas, atmore » 500 K, the predicted values are significantly lower. We hypothesize that at 500 K, the facile hydrogen diffusion in PdH 0.6 alters the speed of sound, resulting in significantly reduced values of predicted elastic constants as compared to the ultrasonic experimental data. Finally, literature mechanical testing experiments seem to support this hypothesis.« less

Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

2001-09-01

We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

Short wavelength Raman spectroscopy applied to the discrimination and characterization of three cultivars of extra virgin olive oils in different maturation stages.

PubMed

Gouvinhas, Irene; Machado, Nelson; Carvalho, Teresa; de Almeida, José M M M; Barros, Ana I R N A

2015-01-01

Extra virgin olive oils produced from three cultivars on different maturation stages were characterized using Raman spectroscopy. Chemometric methods (principal component analysis, discriminant analysis, principal component regression and partial least squares regression) applied to Raman spectral data were utilized to evaluate and quantify the statistical differences between cultivars and their ripening process. The models for predicting the peroxide value and free acidity of olive oils showed good calibration and prediction values and presented high coefficients of determination (>0.933). Both the R(2), and the correlation equations between the measured chemical parameters, and the values predicted by each approach are presented; these comprehend both PCR and PLS, used to assess SNV normalized Raman data, as well as first and second derivative of the spectra. This study demonstrates that a combination of Raman spectroscopy with multivariate analysis methods can be useful to predict rapidly olive oil chemical characteristics during the maturation process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technical note: A linear model for predicting δ13 Cprotein.

PubMed

Pestle, William J; Hubbe, Mark; Smith, Erin K; Stevenson, Joseph M

2015-08-01

Development of a model for the prediction of δ(13) Cprotein from δ(13) Ccollagen and Δ(13) Cap-co . Model-generated values could, in turn, serve as "consumer" inputs for multisource mixture modeling of paleodiet. Linear regression analysis of previously published controlled diet data facilitated the development of a mathematical model for predicting δ(13) Cprotein (and an experimentally generated error term) from isotopic data routinely generated during the analysis of osseous remains (δ(13) Cco and Δ(13) Cap-co ). Regression analysis resulted in a two-term linear model (δ(13) Cprotein (%) = (0.78 × δ(13) Cco ) - (0.58× Δ(13) Cap-co ) - 4.7), possessing a high R-value of 0.93 (r(2)  = 0.86, P < 0.01), and experimentally generated error terms of ±1.9% for any predicted individual value of δ(13) Cprotein . This model was tested using isotopic data from Formative Period individuals from northern Chile's Atacama Desert. The model presented here appears to hold significant potential for the prediction of the carbon isotope signature of dietary protein using only such data as is routinely generated in the course of stable isotope analysis of human osseous remains. These predicted values are ideal for use in multisource mixture modeling of dietary protein source contribution. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic hub load predicts cognitive decline after resective neurosurgery.

PubMed

Carbo, Ellen W S; Hillebrand, Arjan; van Dellen, Edwin; Tewarie, Prejaas; de Witt Hamer, Philip C; Baayen, Johannes C; Klein, Martin; Geurts, Jeroen J G; Reijneveld, Jaap C; Stam, Cornelis J; Douw, Linda

2017-02-07

Resective neurosurgery carries the risk of postoperative cognitive deterioration. The concept of 'hub (over)load', caused by (over)use of the most important brain regions, has been theoretically postulated in relation to symptomatology and neurological disease course, but lacks experimental confirmation. We investigated functional hub load and postsurgical cognitive deterioration in patients undergoing lesion resection. Patients (n = 28) underwent resting-state magnetoencephalography and neuropsychological assessments preoperatively and 1-year after lesion resection. We calculated stationary hub load score (SHub) indicating to what extent brain regions linked different subsystems; high SHub indicates larger processing pressure on hub regions. Dynamic hub load score (DHub) assessed its variability over time; low values, particularly in combination with high SHub values, indicate increased load, because of consistently high usage of hub regions. Hypothetically, increased SHub and decreased DHub relate to hub overload and thus poorer/deteriorating cognition. Between time points, deteriorating verbal memory performance correlated with decreasing upper alpha DHub. Moreover, preoperatively low DHub values accurately predicted declining verbal memory performance. In summary, dynamic hub load relates to cognitive functioning in patients undergoing lesion resection: postoperative cognitive decline can be tracked and even predicted using dynamic hub load, suggesting it may be used as a prognostic marker for tailored treatment planning.

Evaluation and comparison of statistical methods for early temporal detection of outbreaks: A simulation-based study

PubMed Central

Le Strat, Yann

2017-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate a panel of statistical algorithms for temporal outbreak detection. Based on a large dataset of simulated weekly surveillance time series, we performed a systematic assessment of 21 statistical algorithms, 19 implemented in the R package surveillance and two other methods. We estimated false positive rate (FPR), probability of detection (POD), probability of detection during the first week, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values and F1-measure for each detection method. Then, to identify the factors associated with these performance measures, we ran multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for the characteristics of the simulated time series (trend, seasonality, dispersion, outbreak sizes, etc.). The FPR ranged from 0.7% to 59.9% and the POD from 43.3% to 88.7%. Some methods had a very high specificity, up to 99.4%, but a low sensitivity. Methods with a high sensitivity (up to 79.5%) had a low specificity. All methods had a high negative predictive value, over 94%, while positive predictive values ranged from 6.5% to 68.4%. Multivariate Poisson regression models showed that performance measures were strongly influenced by the characteristics of time series. Past or current outbreak size and duration strongly influenced detection performances. PMID:28715489

When in doubt, seize the day? Security values, prosocial values, and proactivity under ambiguity.

PubMed

Grant, Adam M; Rothbard, Nancy P

2013-09-01

Researchers have suggested that both ambiguity and values play important roles in shaping employees' proactive behaviors, but have not theoretically or empirically integrated these factors. Drawing on theories of situational strength and values, we propose that ambiguity constitutes a weak situation that strengthens the relationship between the content of employees' values and their proactivity. A field study of 204 employees and their direct supervisors in a water treatment plant provided support for this contingency perspective. Ambiguity moderated the relationship between employees' security and prosocial values and supervisor ratings of proactivity. Under high ambiguity, security values predicted lower proactivity, whereas prosocial values predicted higher proactivity. Under low ambiguity, values were not associated with proactivity. We replicated these findings in a laboratory experiment with 232 participants in which we measured proactivity objectively as initiative taken to correct errors: Participants with strong security values were less proactive, and participants with strong prosocial values were more proactive, but only when performance expectations were ambiguous. We discuss theoretical implications for research on proactivity, values, and ambiguity and uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

MetabolitePredict: A de novo human metabolomics prediction system and its applications in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Wang, QuanQiu; Xu, Rong

2017-07-01

Human metabolomics has great potential in disease mechanism understanding, early diagnosis, and therapy. Existing metabolomics studies are often based on profiling patient biofluids and tissue samples and are difficult owing to the challenges of sample collection and data processing. Here, we report an alternative approach and developed a computation-based prediction system, MetabolitePredict, for disease metabolomics biomarker prediction. We applied MetabolitePredict to identify metabolite biomarkers and metabolite targeting therapies for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a last-lasting complex disease with multiple genetic and environmental factors involved. MetabolitePredict is a de novo prediction system. It first constructs a disease-specific genetic profile using genes and pathways data associated with an input disease. It then constructs genetic profiles for a total of 259,170 chemicals/metabolites using known chemical genetics and human metabolomic data. MetabolitePredict prioritizes metabolites for a given disease based on the genetic profile similarities between disease and metabolites. We evaluated MetabolitePredict using 63 known RA-associated metabolites. MetabolitePredict found 24 of the 63 metabolites (recall: 0.38) and ranked them highly (mean ranking: top 4.13%, median ranking: top 1.10%, P-value: 5.08E-19). MetabolitePredict performed better than an existing metabolite prediction system, PROFANCY, in predicting RA-associated metabolites (PROFANCY: recall: 0.31, mean ranking: 20.91%, median ranking: 16.47%, P-value: 3.78E-7). Short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), the abundant metabolites of gut microbiota in the fermentation of fiber, ranked highly (butyrate, 0.03%; acetate, 0.05%; propionate, 0.38%). Finally, we established MetabolitePredict's potential in novel metabolite targeting for disease treatment: MetabolitePredict ranked highly three known metabolite inhibitors for RA treatments (methotrexate:0.25%; leflunomide: 0.56%; sulfasalazine: 0.92%). MetabolitePredict is a generalizable disease metabolite prediction system. The only required input to the system is a disease name or a set of disease-associated genes. The web-based MetabolitePredict is available at:http://xulab. edu/MetabolitePredict. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A new model of cavern diameter based on a validated CFD study on stirring of a highly shear-thinning fluid.

PubMed

Story, Anna; Jaworski, Zdzisław

2017-01-01

Results of numerical simulations of momentum transfer for a highly shear-thinning fluid (0.2% Carbopol) in a stirred tank equipped with a Prochem Maxflo T type impeller are presented. The simulation results were validated using LDA data and both tangential and axial force measurements in the laminar and early transitional flow range. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental results of the local fluid velocity components was found. From the predicted and experimental values of both tangential and axial forces, the power number, Po , and thrust number, Th , were also calculated. Values of the absolute relative deviations were below 4.0 and 10.5%, respectively, for Po and Th , which confirms a satisfactory agreement with experiments. An intensive mixing zone, known as cavern, was observed near the impeller. In this zone, the local values of fluid velocity, strain rate, Metzner-Otto coefficient, shear stress and intensity of energy dissipation were all characterized by strong variability. Based on the results of experimental study a new model using non-dimensional impeller force number was proposed to predict the cavern diameter. Comparative numerical simulations were also carried out for a Newtonian fluid (water) and their results were similarly well verified using LDA measurements, as well as experimental power number values.

A novel model to predict gas-phase hydroxyl radical oxidation kinetics of polychlorinated compounds.

PubMed

Luo, Shuang; Wei, Zongsu; Spinney, Richard; Yang, Zhihui; Chai, Liyuan; Xiao, Ruiyang

2017-04-01

In this study, a novel model based on aromatic meta-substituent grouping was presented to predict the second-order rate constants (k) for OH oxidation of PCBs in gas-phase. Since the oxidation kinetics are dependent on the chlorination degree and position, we hypothesized that it may be more accurate for k value prediction if we group PCB congeners based on substitution positions (i.e., ortho (o), meta (m), and para (p)). To test this hypothesis, we examined the correlation of polarizability (α), a quantum chemical based descriptor for k values, with an empirical Hammett constant (σ + ) on each substitution position. Our result shows that α is highly linearly correlated to ∑σ o,m,p + based on aromatic meta-substituents leading to the grouping based predictive model. With the new model, the calculated k values exhibited an excellent agreement with experimental measurements, and greater predictive power than the quantum chemical based quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model. Further, the relationship of α and ∑σ o,m,p + for PCDDs congeners, together with highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) distribution, were used to validate the aromatic meta-substituent grouping method. This newly developed model features a combination of good predictability of quantum chemical based QSAR model and simplicity of Hammett relationship, showing a great potential for fast and computational tractable prediction of k values for gas-phase OH oxidation of polychlorinated compounds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and brain volumetry in mild cognitive impairment. A prospective study.

PubMed

Fayed, Nicolás; Modrego, Pedro J; García-Martí, Gracián; Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Marti-Bonmatí, Luis

2017-05-01

To assess the accuracy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) and brain volumetry in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to predict conversion to probable Alzheimer's disease (AD). Forty-eight patients fulfilling the criteria of amnestic MCI who underwent a conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) followed by MRS, and T1-3D on 1.5 Tesla MR unit. At baseline the patients underwent neuropsychological examination. 1H-MRS of the brain was carried out by exploring the left medial occipital lobe and ventral posterior cingulated cortex (vPCC) using the LCModel software. A high resolution T1-3D sequence was acquired to carry out the volumetric measurement. A cortical and subcortical parcellation strategy was used to obtain the volumes of each area within the brain. The patients were followed up to detect conversion to probable AD. After a 3-year follow-up, 15 (31.2%) patients converted to AD. The myo-inositol in the occipital cortex and glutamate+glutamine (Glx) in the posterior cingulate cortex predicted conversion to probable AD at 46.1% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity. The positive predictive value was 66.7%, and the negative predictive value was 80.6%, with an overall cross-validated classification accuracy of 77.8%. The volume of the third ventricle, the total white matter and entorhinal cortex predict conversion to probable AD at 46.7% sensitivity and 90.9% specificity. The positive predictive value was 70%, and the negative predictive value was 78.9%, with an overall cross-validated classification accuracy of 77.1%. Combining volumetric measures in addition to the MRS measures the prediction to probable AD has a 38.5% sensitivity and 87.5% specificity, with a positive predictive value of 55.6%, a negative predictive value of 77.8% and an overall accuracy of 73.3%. Either MRS or brain volumetric measures are markers separately of cognitive decline and may serve as a noninvasive tool to monitor cognitive changes and progression to dementia in patients with amnestic MCI, but the results do not support the routine use in the clinical settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Artificial neural network models for prediction of cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in general Chinese population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The present study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for cardiovascular autonomic (CA) dysfunction in the general population. Methods We analyzed a previous dataset based on a population sample consisted of 2,092 individuals aged 30–80 years. The prediction models were derived from an exploratory set using ANN analysis. Performances of these prediction models were evaluated in the validation set. Results Univariate analysis indicated that 14 risk factors showed statistically significant association with CA dysfunction (P < 0.05). The mean area under the receiver-operating curve was 0.762 (95% CI 0.732–0.793) for prediction model developed using ANN analysis. The mean sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were similar in the prediction models was 0.751, 0.665, 0.330 and 0.924, respectively. All HL statistics were less than 15.0. Conclusion ANN is an effective tool for developing prediction models with high value for predicting CA dysfunction among the general population. PMID:23902963

Semi-empirical correlation for binary interaction parameters of the Peng-Robinson equation of state with the van der Waals mixing rules for the prediction of high-pressure vapor-liquid equilibrium.

PubMed

Fateen, Seif-Eddeen K; Khalil, Menna M; Elnabawy, Ahmed O

2013-03-01

Peng-Robinson equation of state is widely used with the classical van der Waals mixing rules to predict vapor liquid equilibria for systems containing hydrocarbons and related compounds. This model requires good values of the binary interaction parameter kij . In this work, we developed a semi-empirical correlation for kij partly based on the Huron-Vidal mixing rules. We obtained values for the adjustable parameters of the developed formula for over 60 binary systems and over 10 categories of components. The predictions of the new equation system were slightly better than the constant-kij model in most cases, except for 10 systems whose predictions were considerably improved with the new correlation.

A prospective analysis of physical examination findings in the diagnosis of facial fractures: Determining predictive value.

PubMed

Timashpolsky, Alisa; Dagum, Alexander B; Sayeed, Syed M; Romeiser, Jamie L; Rosenfeld, Elisheva A; Conkling, Nicole

2016-01-01

There are >150,000 patient visits per year to emergency rooms for facial trauma. The reliability of a computed tomography (CT) scan has made it the primary modality for diagnosing facial skeletal injury, with the physical examination playing more a cursory role. Knowing the predictive value of physical findings in facial skeletal injuries may enable more appropriate use of imaging and health care resources. A blinded prospective study was undertaken to assess the predictive value of physical examination findings in detecting maxillofacial fracture in trauma patients, and in determining whether a patient will require surgical intervention. Over a four-month period, the authors' team examined patients admitted with facial trauma to the emergency department of their hospital. The evaluating physician completed a standardized physical examination evaluation form indicating the physical findings. Corresponding CT scans and surgical records were then reviewed, and the results recorded by a plastic surgeon who was blinded to the results of the physical examination. A total of 57 patients met the inclusion criteria; there were 44 male and 13 female patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of grouped physical examination findings were determined in major areas. In further analysis, specific examination findings with n≥9 (15%) were also reported. The data demonstrated a high negative predictive value of at least 90% for orbital floor, zygomatic, mandibular and nasal bone fractures compared with CT scan. Furthermore, none of the patients who did not have a physical examination finding for a particular facial fracture required surgery for that fracture. Thus, the instrument performed well at ruling out fractures in these areas when there were none. Ultimately, these results may help reduce unnecessary radiation and costly imaging in patients with facial trauma without facial fractures.

Deciphering the use and predictive value of "emergency medical services provider judgment" in out-of-hospital trauma triage: a multisite, mixed methods assessment.

PubMed

Newgard, Craig D; Kampp, Michael; Nelson, Maria; Holmes, James F; Zive, Dana; Rea, Thomas; Bulger, Eileen M; Liao, Michael; Sherck, John; Hsia, Renee Y; Wang, N Ewen; Fleischman, Ross J; Barton, Erik D; Daya, Mohamud; Heineman, John; Kuppermann, Nathan

2012-05-01

"Emergency medical services (EMS) provider judgment" was recently added as a field triage criterion to the national guidelines, yet its predictive value and real world application remain unclear. We examine the use and independent predictive value of EMS provider judgment in identifying seriously injured persons. We analyzed a population-based retrospective cohort, supplemented by qualitative analysis, of injured children and adults evaluated and transported by 47 EMS agencies to 94 hospitals in five regions across the Western United States from 2006 to 2008. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the independent predictive value of EMS provider judgment for Injury Severity Score ≥ 16. EMS narratives were analyzed using qualitative methods to assess and compare common themes for each step in the triage algorithm, plus EMS provider judgment. 213,869 injured patients were evaluated and transported by EMS over the 3-year period, of whom 41,191 (19.3%) met at least one of the field triage criteria. EMS provider judgment was the most commonly used triage criterion (40.0% of all triage-positive patients; sole criterion in 21.4%). After accounting for other triage criteria and confounders, the adjusted odds ratio of Injury Severity Score ≥ 16 for EMS provider judgment was 1.23 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.47), although there was variability in predictive value across sites. Patients meeting EMS provider judgment had concerning clinical presentations qualitatively similar to those meeting mechanistic and other special considerations criteria. Among this multisite cohort of trauma patients, EMS provider judgment was the most commonly used field trauma triage criterion, independently associated with serious injury, and useful in identifying high-risk patients missed by other criteria. However, there was variability in predictive value between sites.

[Efficacy of stool antigen and serologic tests in the diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori in Ecuadorian population].

PubMed

Gómez, Néstor A; Alvarez, Ludwig R; Zapatier, Jorge A; Vargas, Paola E

2005-01-01

To assess the effectiveness in the Ecuadorian population of 2 non-invasive methods for the detection of the Helicobacter pylori: the stool antigens immunoassay (HpSAg) and the determination IgG serum of'antibodies. Eighty six dyspeptic patients were evaluated. In each, Helicobacter pylori presence was investigated with three methods: histology, HpSAg and serology. Sensibility and specificity values were obtained, as well as the positive and negative predictive values. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori with the 3 tests was 89.53%. The sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were: 42.5%, 69.2%, 88.6% and 17.6% with histology; 69.2%, 42.9%, 78.9% and 31% with HpSAg; 64.2%, 47.7%, 81.1% and 27.3% with serology. In the highly prevalent Ecuadorian setting, HpSAg and serology have relative low sensibility and specificity values. Based on our results, it is necessary to assess for conditions that could alter their results, and strategies to increase the sensibility of these tests, including the histology.

Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System.

PubMed

Norouzi, Jamshid; Yadollahpour, Ali; Mirbagheri, Seyed Ahmad; Mazdeh, Mitra Mahdavi; Hosseini, Seyed Ahmad

2016-01-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data. This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD patients. The threshold value of 15 cc/kg/min/1.73 m(2) of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. Weight, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current GFR(t) showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). Despite the high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods.

A Risk Assessment Model for Bacterial Leaf Spot of Pepper (Capsicum annuum), Caused by Xanthomonas euvesicatoria, Based on Concentrations of Macronutrients, Micronutrients, and Micronutrient Ratios.

PubMed

Dutta, B; Langston, D B; Luo, X; Carlson, S; Kichler, J; Gitaitis, R

2017-11-01

The phytopathogenic bacterium Xanthomonas euvesicatoria causes bacterial leaf spot (BLS) of pepper and has a worldwide distribution. BLS is difficult to control and an integrated management strategy that incorporates crop rotation, use of clean seed and clean plants, weed control, resistant varieties, applications of bactericides, biocontrol agents, and systemic acquired resistance (SAR) inducers is generally recommended. However, even with that arsenal of weapons, BLS can still be responsible for severe losses under favorable environmental conditions. Thus, additional tools need to be added to an overall integrated management strategy to combat BLS. In this article, we developed several models from 2012 to 2014 that were based on how macronutrients, micronutrients, and micronutrient ratios affect BLS severity. Factors used to select a model for validation included highly significant P values, high adjusted R 2 values, low variance inflation factor values (<5), root mean square error, Mallow's Cp, and high Akaike's information criterion correction values. In addition, salicylic acid (SA) concentrations and relative expression of nonexpresser pathogenesis-related gene1 (NPR1) and pathogenesis-related protein 1 (PR1) in pepper tissues were also considered in model selection. A model (ECGA1) consisting of concentrations of copper, manganese, potassium, and the iron/zinc ratio as independent variables was used for validation in three different commercial pepper fields in Georgia: Colquitt County and Worth County in 2015 and Tift County in 2016. When area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) values for two field sites (Colquitt and Worth Counties) in 2015 were pulled together and plotted against ECGA1-predicted values for both sites, the resulting relationship was highly significant (P = 0.0001) with an R 2 value of 0.92. A significant relationship between observed AUDPC versus predicted values was also observed in Tift County in 2016 (P < 0.001; adjusted R 2 = 0.98). Relative gene expression of both NPR1 and PR1 genes was significantly (P < 0.01) higher in pepper grown in predicted low-risk sites compared with pepper from high-risk sites in Colquitt, Worth, and Tift Counties. Although BLS severity will fluctuate depending on environmental conditions, the data indicate that the level of risk at a particular location may be influenced by how macronutrient and micronutrient concentrations affect plant disease resistance genes in the SAR pathway.

Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city

PubMed Central

Burgess, Neil D.; Milledge, Simon A. H.; Bulling, Mark T.; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C. R.; Clarke, G. Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E.; Lewis, Simon L.

2010-01-01

Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of ~0.5 Pg·y−1, reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 km·y−1, and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 km·y−1. This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mg·ha−1; 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity. PMID:20679200

Prediction of metabolism-induced hepatotoxicity on three-dimensional hepatic cell culture and enzyme microarrays.

PubMed

Yu, Kyeong-Nam; Nadanaciva, Sashi; Rana, Payal; Lee, Dong Woo; Ku, Bosung; Roth, Alexander D; Dordick, Jonathan S; Will, Yvonne; Lee, Moo-Yeal

2018-03-01

Human liver contains various oxidative and conjugative enzymes that can convert nontoxic parent compounds to toxic metabolites or, conversely, toxic parent compounds to nontoxic metabolites. Unlike primary hepatocytes, which contain myriad drug-metabolizing enzymes (DMEs), but are difficult to culture and maintain physiological levels of DMEs, immortalized hepatic cell lines used in predictive toxicity assays are easy to culture, but lack the ability to metabolize compounds. To address this limitation and predict metabolism-induced hepatotoxicity in high-throughput, we developed an advanced miniaturized three-dimensional (3D) cell culture array (DataChip 2.0) and an advanced metabolizing enzyme microarray (MetaChip 2.0). The DataChip is a functionalized micropillar chip that supports the Hep3B human hepatoma cell line in a 3D microarray format. The MetaChip is a microwell chip containing immobilized DMEs found in the human liver. As a proof of concept for generating compound metabolites in situ on the chip and rapidly assessing their toxicity, 22 model compounds were dispensed into the MetaChip and sandwiched with the DataChip. The IC 50 values obtained from the chip platform were correlated with rat LD 50 values, human C max values, and drug-induced liver injury categories to predict adverse drug reactions in vivo. As a result, the platform had 100% sensitivity, 86% specificity, and 93% overall predictivity at optimum cutoffs of IC 50 and C max values. Therefore, the DataChip/MetaChip platform could be used as a high-throughput, early stage, microscale alternative to conventional in vitro multi-well plate platforms and provide a rapid and inexpensive assessment of metabolism-induced toxicity at early phases of drug development.

IL-10 combined with procalcitonin improves early prediction of complications of febrile neutropenia in hematological patients.

PubMed

Vänskä, Matti; Koivula, Irma; Jantunen, Esa; Hämäläinen, Sari; Purhonen, Anna-Kaisa; Pulkki, Kari; Juutilainen, Auni

2012-12-01

Early diagnosis of complicated course in febrile neutropenia is cumbersome due to the non-specificity of clinical and laboratory signs of severe infection. This prospective study included 100 adult hematological patients with febrile neutropenia after intensive chemotherapy at the onset of fever (d0) and for 3 days (d1-d3) thereafter. The study aim was to find early predictors for complicated course of febrile neutropenia, defined as bacteremia or septic shock. Interleukin 6 (IL-6), interleukin 10 (IL-10), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) all predicted complicated course of febrile neutropenia on d0, but only PCT was predictive throughout the study period. For IL-10 on d0-1 with cut-off 37 ng/L, sensitivity was 0.71, specificity 0.82, positive predictive value 0.52 and negative predictive value 0.92. For PCT on d0-1 with cut-off 0.13 μg/L, the respective measures were 0.95, 0.53, 0.36, and 0.98. For the combination of IL-10 and PCT on d0-1 with the same cut-offs, specificity improved to 0.85 and positive predictive value to 0.56. In conclusion, the present study confirms the high negative predictive value of PCT and provides new evidence for IL-10 as an early predictor for complicated course of febrile neutropenia in hematological patients. Combining IL-10 with PCT improves the early prediction for complicated course of febrile neutropenia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash

PubMed Central

Safiuddin, Md.; Raman, Sudharshan N.; Abdus Salam, Md.; Jumaat, Mohd. Zamin

2016-01-01

Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN. PMID:28773520

Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash.

PubMed

Safiuddin, Md; Raman, Sudharshan N; Abdus Salam, Md; Jumaat, Mohd Zamin

2016-05-20

Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination ( R ²) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN.

[The trial of business data analysis at the Department of Radiology by constructing the auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model].

PubMed

Tani, Yuji; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

2012-01-01

This study aimed to contribute to the management of a healthcare organization by providing management information using time-series analysis of business data accumulated in the hospital information system, which has not been utilized thus far. In this study, we examined the performance of the prediction method using the auto-regressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model, using the business data obtained at the Radiology Department. We made the model using the data used for analysis, which was the number of radiological examinations in the past 9 years, and we predicted the number of radiological examinations in the last 1 year. Then, we compared the actual value with the forecast value. We were able to establish that the performance prediction method was simple and cost-effective by using free software. In addition, we were able to build the simple model by pre-processing the removal of trend components using the data. The difference between predicted values and actual values was 10%; however, it was more important to understand the chronological change rather than the individual time-series values. Furthermore, our method was highly versatile and adaptable compared to the general time-series data. Therefore, different healthcare organizations can use our method for the analysis and forecasting of their business data.

Tissue Transglutaminase Levels Are Not Sufficient to Diagnose Celiac Disease in North American Practices Without Intestinal Biopsies.

PubMed

Elitsur, Yoram; Sigman, Terry; Watkins, Runa; Porto, Anthony F; Leonard Puppa, Elaine L; Foglio, Elsie J; Preston, Deborah L

2017-01-01

Celiac serology is crucial for the diagnosis of celiac disease in children. The American guideline for celiac disease in children suggested that positive serology should be followed by confirmatory intestinal histology. The relationship between high tissue transglutaminase titers and celiac disease in children has not been well investigated in children from North America. In the present study, we investigated whether different tissue transglutaminase titers in symptomatic children could predict celiac disease without the confirmation of intestinal histology. Data from biopsy confirmed celiac children were collected from four different clinics in North America. Clinical, serological, histological, and follow-up data were collected. The accuracy rates of various tissue transglutaminase titers to predict celiac disease in children were calculated. The data from 240 children were calculated. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy rate of tissue transglutaminase titers at ≥10× upper limit of normal were 75.4, 48.8, 87.7, 29.0, and 70.8 %, respectively. Similar data were noted in the other tissue transglutaminase titers (≥3× upper limit of normal, >100 U/ml, or >100 U/ml and >10× upper limit of normal). The positive predictive value of tissue transglutaminase titers at ≥3× upper limit of normal or higher was too low to predict celiac disease in children. Our data suggested that in routine clinical practice, high titers of tissue transglutaminase are not sufficient to diagnose celiac disease in North American children without intestinal biopsies.

Glycated Hemoglobin Measurement and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Gao, Pei; Khan, Hassan; Butterworth, Adam S.; Wormser, David; Kaptoge, Stephen; Kondapally Seshasai, Sreenivasa Rao; Thompson, Alex; Sarwar, Nadeem; Willeit, Peter; Ridker, Paul M; Barr, Elizabeth L.M.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Psaty, Bruce M.; Brenner, Hermann; Balkau, Beverley; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Daimon, Makoto; Willeit, Johann; Njølstad, Inger; Nissinen, Aulikki; Brunner, Eric J.; Kuller, Lewis H.; Price, Jackie F.; Sundström, Johan; Knuiman, Matthew W.; Feskens, Edith J. M.; Verschuren, W. M. M.; Wald, Nicholas; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Whincup, Peter H.; Ford, Ian; Goldbourt, Uri; Gómez-de-la-Cámara, Agustín; Gallacher, John; Simons, Leon A.; Rosengren, Annika; Sutherland, Susan E.; Björkelund, Cecilia; Blazer, Dan G.; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Onat, Altan; Marín Ibañez, Alejandro; Casiglia, Edoardo; Jukema, J. Wouter; Simpson, Lara M.; Giampaoli, Simona; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Selmer, Randi; Wennberg, Patrik; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T.; Dankner, Rachel; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Kavousi, Maryam; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Evans, Denis; Wallace, Robert B.; Cushman, Mary; D’Agostino, Ralph B.; Umans, Jason G.; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Nakagawa, Hidaeki; Sato, Shinichi; Gillum, Richard F.; Folsom, Aaron R.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Moons, Karel G.; Griffin, Simon J.; Sattar, Naveed; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Thompson, Simon G.; Danesh, John

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. OBJECTIVE To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294 998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5%to <7.5%), and high (≥7.5%) risk. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20 840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13 237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (−0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk. PMID:24668104

Improved High/Low Junction Silicon Solar Cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neugroschel, A.; Pao, S. C.; Lindholm, F. A.; Fossum, J. G.

1986-01-01

Method developed to raise value of open-circuit voltage in silicon solar cells by incorporating high/low junction in cell emitter. Power-conversion efficiency of low-resistivity silicon solar cell considerably less than maximum theoretical value mainly because open-circuit voltage is smaller than simple p/n junction theory predicts. With this method, air-mass-zero opencircuit voltage increased from 600 mV level to approximately 650 mV.

A high resolution computer tomography scoring system to predict culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in the emergency department.

PubMed

Yeh, Jun-Jun; Neoh, Choo-Aun; Chen, Cheng-Ren; Chou, Christine Yi-Ting; Wu, Ming-Ting

2014-01-01

This study evaluated the use of high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) to predict the presence of culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in adult patients with pulmonary lesions in the emergency department (ED). The study included a derivation phase and validation phase with a total of 8,245 patients with pulmonary disease. There were 132 patients with culture-positive PTB in the derivation phase and 147 patients with culture-positive PTB in the validation phase. Imaging evaluation of pulmonary lesions included morphology and segmental distribution. The post-test probability ratios between both phases in three prevalence areas were analyzed. In the derivation phase, a multivariate analysis model identified cavitation, consolidation, and clusters/nodules in right or left upper lobe (except anterior segment) and consolidation of the superior segment of the right or left lower lobe as independent positive factors for culture-positive PTB, while consolidation of the right or left lower lobe (except superior segment) were independent negative factors. An ideal cutoff point based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was obtained at a score of 1. The sensitivity, specificity, positivity predictive value, and negative predictive value from derivation phase were 98.5% (130/132), 99.7% (3997/4008), 92.2% (130/141), and 99.9% (3997/3999). Based on the predicted positive likelihood ratio value of 328.33 in derivation phase, the post-test probability was observed to be 91.5% in the derivation phase, 92.5% in the validation phase, 94.5% in a high TB prevalence area, 91.0% in a moderate prevalence area, and 76.8% in moderate-to-low prevalence area. Our model using HRCT, which is feasible to perform in the ED, can promptly diagnose culture-positive PTB in moderate and moderate-to-low prevalence areas.

Absolute and relative kinetic changes of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in acute coronary syndrome and in patients with increased troponin in the absence of acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Mueller, Matthias; Biener, Moritz; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Doerr, Susanne; Keller, Till; Blankenberg, Stefan; Katus, Hugo A; Giannitsis, Evangelos

2012-01-01

We evaluated kinetic changes of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and patients with hs-cTnT increases not due to ACS to rule in or rule out non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). hs-cTnT was measured serially in consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department. Patients with ACS who had at least 2 hs-cTnT measurements within 6 h and non-ACS patients with hs-cTnT concentrations above the 99th percentile value (14 ng/L) were enrolled to compare absolute and relative kinetic changes of hs-cTnT. For discrimination of non-STEMI (n=165) in the entire study population (n=784), the absolute δ change with the ROC-optimized value of 9.2 ng/L yielded an area under the curve of 0.898 and was superior to all relative δ changes (P<0.0001). The positive predictive value for the absolute δ change was 48.7%, whereas the negative predictive value was 96.5%. In a specific ACS population with exclusion of STEMI (n=342), the absolute δ change with the ROC-optimized value of 6.9 ng/L yielded a positive predictive value of 82.8% and a negative predictive value of 93.0%. In comparison to the ≥20% relative δ change, the ROC-optimized absolute δ change demonstrated a significantly added value for the entire study population and for the ACS cohort (net reclassification index 0.331 and 0.499, P<0.0001). Absolute δ changes appear superior to relative δ changes in discriminating non-STEMI. A rise or fall of at least 9.2 ng/L in the entire study population and 6.9 ng/L in selected ACS patients seems adequate to rule-out non-STEMI. However, δ-values are useful to rule-in non-STEMI only in a specific ACS population.

How reliably can computed tomography predict thyroid invasion prior to laryngectomy?

PubMed

Harris, Andrew S; Passant, Carl D; Ingrams, Duncan R

2018-05-01

There is little evidence to support the removal of thyroid tissue during total laryngectomy. Although oncological control of the tumor is the priority, thyroidectomy can lead to hypothyroidism and hypoparathyroidism. This study aimed to test the usefulness of preoperative computed tomography in predicting histological invasion of the thyroid. Ambispective cohort study. All patients undergoing total laryngectomy for squamous cell carcinoma at one center from 2006 to 2016 were included. Data were recorded prospectively as part of the patients' standard care, but were collated retrospectively, giving this study an ambispective design. The histology report for thyroid invasion was taken as the gold standard. The computed tomography report was categorized by invasion of tumor into intralaryngeal, laryngeal cartilage involvement, and extralaryngeal tissues. Seventy-nine patients were included. Nine patients had thyroid involvement on histology, translating to an incidence of 11.29% in this population. The positive predictive value for cartilage involvement on computed tomography for thyroid invasion was 52.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.5%-76.1%) and the negative predictive value was 100% (95% CI: 92.7%-100%).The positive predictive value for extralaryngeal spread on computed tomography for thyroid involvement was 100% (95% CI: 62.9%-100%), and the negative predictive value was also 100% (95% CI: 93.5%-100%). This study has shown that preoperative computed tomography is an effective method of ruling out thyroid gland invasion. The absence of extralaryngeal spread on computed tomography has been shown to be the most useful finding, with a high negative predictive value and a narrow 95% CI. 4. Laryngoscope, 128:1099-1102, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Morality, values, traditional bullying, and cyberbullying in adolescence.

PubMed

Menesini, Ersilia; Nocentini, Annalaura; Camodeca, Marina

2013-03-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate moral aspects and human values in traditional bullying and cyberbullying, in order to detect differences between the two types of bullying and to test the role of immoral and disengaged behaviours in mediating the relationships between personal values and involvement in bullying. Sample comprised 390 adolescents aged 14-18, balanced for gender, attending different high schools. Traditional and cyberbullying were detected by means of two self-report measures, while the Portrait Values Questionnaire was used to assess 10 values in four dimensions according to the value system model by Schwartz (1992): self-trascendence, self-enhancement, openness to change, and conservation. Finally, immoral and disengaged behaviours were assessed by means of five items about behavioural and personal aspects salient for morality. Results showed that, irrespective of gender, self-enhancement and self-trascendence moderately predicted cyber and traditional bullying, respectively, while immoral and disengaged behaviours predicted both. Indirect effects showed that self-enhancement and openness to change predicted both forms of bullying through immoral behaviour. Results are discussed in terms of similarities and differences between cyber and traditional bullying and with attention to the central role of morality in explaining bullying nature. © 2011 The British Psychological Society.

Meningitis in adult patients with a negative direct cerebrospinal fluid examination: value of cytochemical markers for differential diagnosis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction The objective of this study was to determine the ability of various parameters commonly used for the diagnosis of acute meningitis to differentiate between bacterial and viral meningitis, in adult patients with a negative direct cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) examination. Methods This was a prospective study, started in 1997, including all patients admitted to the emergency unit with acute meningitis and a negative direct CSF examination. Serum and CSF samples were taken immediately on admission. The patients were divided into two groups according to the type of meningitis: bacterial (BM; group I) or viral (VM; group II). The CSF parameters investigated were cytology, protein, glucose, and lactate; the serum parameters evaluated were C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. CSF/serum glucose and lactate ratios were also assessed. Results Of the 254 patients with meningitis with a negative direct CSF examination, 35 had BM and 181, VM. The most highly discriminative parameters for the differential diagnosis of BM proved to be CSF lactate, with a sensitivity of 94%, a specificity of 92%, a negative predictive value of 99%, a positive predictive value of 82% at a diagnostic cut-off level of 3.8 mmol/L (area under the curve (AUC), 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.95 to 1), and serum procalcitonin, with a sensitivity of 95%, a specificity of 100%, a negative predictive value of 100%, and a positive predictive value of 97% at a diagnostic cut-off level of 0.28 ng/ml (AUC, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1). Conclusions Serum procalcitonin and CSF lactate concentrations appear to be the most highly discriminative parameters for the differential diagnosis of BM and VM. PMID:21645387

Gravity-darkening exponents in semi-detached binary systems from their photometric observations. II.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djurašević, G.; Rovithis-Livaniou, H.; Rovithis, P.; Georgiades, N.; Erkapić, S.; Pavlović, R.

2006-01-01

This second part of our study concerning gravity-darkening presents the results for 8 semi-detached close binary systems. From the light-curve analysis of these systems the exponent of the gravity-darkening (GDE) for the Roche lobe filling components has been empirically derived. The method used for the light-curve analysis is based on Roche geometry, and enables simultaneous estimation of the systems' parameters and the gravity-darkening exponents. Our analysis is restricted to the black-body approximation which can influence in some degree the parameter estimation. The results of our analysis are: 1) For four of the systems, namely: TX UMa, β Per, AW Cam and TW Cas, there is a very good agreement between empirically estimated and theoretically predicted values for purely convective envelopes. 2) For the AI Dra system, the estimated value of gravity-darkening exponent is greater, and for UX Her, TW And and XZ Pup lesser than corresponding theoretical predictions, but for all mentioned systems the obtained values of the gravity-darkening exponent are quite close to the theoretically expected values. 3) Our analysis has proved generally that with the correction of the previously estimated mass ratios of the components within some of the analysed systems, the theoretical predictions of the gravity-darkening exponents for stars with convective envelopes are highly reliable. The anomalous values of the GDE found in some earlier studies of these systems can be considered as the consequence of the inappropriate method used to estimate the GDE. 4) The empirical estimations of GDE given in Paper I and in the present study indicate that in the light-curve analysis one can apply the recent theoretical predictions of GDE with high confidence for stars with both convective and radiative envelopes.

Sound transmission loss of composite sandwich panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ran

Light composite sandwich panels are increasingly used in automobiles, ships and aircraft, because of the advantages they offer of high strength-to-weight ratios. However, the acoustical properties of these light and stiff structures can be less desirable than those of equivalent metal panels. These undesirable properties can lead to high interior noise levels. A number of researchers have studied the acoustical properties of honeycomb and foam sandwich panels. Not much work, however, has been carried out on foam-filled honeycomb sandwich panels. In this dissertation, governing equations for the forced vibration of asymmetric sandwich panels are developed. An analytical expression for modal densities of symmetric sandwich panels is derived from a sixth-order governing equation. A boundary element analysis model for the sound transmission loss of symmetric sandwich panels is proposed. Measurements of the modal density, total loss factor, radiation loss factor, and sound transmission loss of foam-filled honeycomb sandwich panels with different configurations and thicknesses are presented. Comparisons between the predicted sound transmission loss values obtained from wave impedance analysis, statistical energy analysis, boundary element analysis, and experimental values are presented. The wave impedance analysis model provides accurate predictions of sound transmission loss for the thin foam-filled honeycomb sandwich panels at frequencies above their first resonance frequencies. The predictions from the statistical energy analysis model are in better agreement with the experimental transmission loss values of the sandwich panels when the measured radiation loss factor values near coincidence are used instead of the theoretical values for single-layer panels. The proposed boundary element analysis model provides more accurate predictions of sound transmission loss for the thick foam-filled honeycomb sandwich panels than either the wave impedance analysis model or the statistical energy analysis model.

Predictions of high QDT in ITER H-mode plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budny, Robert

2009-05-01

Time-dependent integrated predictions of performance metrics such as the fusion power PDT, QDT≡ PDT/Pext, and alpha profiles are presented. The PTRANSP code (see R.V. Budny, R. Andre, G. Bateman, F. Halpern, C.E. Kessel, A. Kritz, and D. McCune, Nuclear Fusion 48 075005, and F. Halpern, A. Kritz, G. Bateman, R.V. Budny, and D. McCune, Phys. Plasmas 15 062505) is used, along with GLF23 to predict plasma profiles, NUBEAM for NNBI and alpha heating, TORIC for ICRH, and TORAY for ECRH. Effects of sawteeth mixing, beam steering, beam shine-through, radiation loss, ash accumulation, and toroidal rotation are included. A total heating of Pext=73MW is assumed to achieve H-mode during the density and current ramp-up phase. Various mixes of NNBI, ICRH, and ECRH heating schemes are compared. After steady state conditions are achieved, Pext is stepped down to lower values to explore high QDT. Physics and computation uncertainties lead to ranges in predictions for PDT and QDT. Physics uncertainties include the L->H and H->L threshold powers, pedestal height, impurity and ash transport, and recycling. There are considerably more uncertainties predicting the peak value for QDT than for PDT.

QSAR modeling for predicting mutagenic toxicity of diverse chemicals for regulatory purposes.

PubMed

Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

2017-06-01

The safety assessment process of chemicals requires information on their mutagenic potential. The experimental determination of mutagenicity of a large number of chemicals is tedious and time and cost intensive, thus compelling for alternative methods. We have established local and global QSAR models for discriminating low and high mutagenic compounds and predicting their mutagenic activity in a quantitative manner in Salmonella typhimurium (TA) bacterial strains (TA98 and TA100). The decision treeboost (DTB)-based classification QSAR models discriminated among two categories with accuracies of >96% and the regression QSAR models precisely predicted the mutagenic activity of diverse chemicals yielding high correlations (R 2 ) between the experimental and model-predicted values in the respective training (>0.96) and test (>0.94) sets. The test set root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) values emphasized the usefulness of the developed models for predicting new compounds. Relevant structural features of diverse chemicals that were responsible and influence the mutagenic activity were identified. The applicability domains of the developed models were defined. The developed models can be used as tools for screening new chemicals for their mutagenicity assessment for regulatory purpose.

Predictors of Cultural Values Conflict for Asian Indian Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaduvettoor-Davidson, Anju; Inman, Arpana G.

2012-01-01

This study explored the relationship between the family environments and coping styles and the cultural values conflicts of 110 Asian Indian women. Results indicated that women perceiving supportive family environments had less sex role conflict. Additionally, avoidant and emotion-focused coping predicted high conflict regarding intimate relations…

Screening of Obstructive Sleep Apnea during Pregnancy: Differences in Predictive Values of Questionnaires across Trimesters

PubMed Central

Tantrakul, Visasiri; Sirijanchune, Piyaporn; Panburana, Panyu; Pengjam, Janejira; Suwansathit, Worakot; Boonsarngsuk, Viboon; Guilleminault, Christian

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: Evaluation of Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires in detecting obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) across trimesters of pregnancy. Methods: Pregnant women from a high-risk pregnancy clinic were recruited to complete sleep evaluations including Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires. Overnight testing with Watch-PAT200 for diagnosis of OSA (cutoff point of apneahypopnea index ≥ 5 events/h) was performed. Results: Seventy-two singleton pregnant women participated in the study. Enrollment consisted of 23, 24, and 25 women during first, second, and third trimesters, respectively. Of 72 pregnancies, 23 patients (31.9%) had OSA. Prevalence of OSA classified by trimesters from first to third was 30.4%, 33.33%, and 32.0%, respectively. Overall predictive values of Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires were fair (ROC area under curve, AUC 0.72 for Berlin, p = 0.003; 0.75 for Stop-Bang, p = 0.001). When categorized according to trimesters, predictive values substantially improved in second (AUC: 0.84 for Berlin; 0.78 for Stop-Bang) and third trimesters (AUC: 0.81 for Berlin; 0.75 for Stop-Bang), whereas performances of both questionnaires during first trimester were poorer (AUC: 0.49 for Berlin; 0.71 for Stop-Bang). Multivariate analyses show that pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) in first trimester, snore often in second trimester, and weight gain and pregnancy BMI in third trimester were significantly associated with OSA. Conclusions: In high-risk pregnancy, Berlin and Stop-Bang questionnaires were of limited usefulness in the first trimester. However their predictive values are acceptable as pregnancy progresses, particularly in second trimester. OSA in pregnancy seems to be a dynamic process with different predictors association during each trimester. Citation: Trantrakul V, Sirijanchune P, Panburana P, Pengjam J, Suwansathit W, Boonsarngsuk V, Guilleminault C. Screening of obstructive sleep apnea during pregnancy: differences in predictive values of questionnaires across trimesters. J Clin Sleep Med 2015;11(2):157–163. PMID:25406273

[Predictive value and sensibility of hospital discharge system (PMSI) compared to cancer registries for thyroïd cancer (1999-2000)].

PubMed

Carré, N; Uhry, Z; Velten, M; Trétarre, B; Schvartz, C; Molinié, F; Maarouf, N; Langlois, C; Grosclaude, P; Colonna, M

2006-09-01

Cancer registries have a complete recording of new cancer cases occurring among residents of a specific geographic area. In France, they cover only 13% of the population. For thyroid cancer, where incidence rate is highly variable according to the district conversely to mortality, national incidence estimates are not accurate. A nationwide database, such as hospital discharge system, could improve this estimate but its positive predictive value and sensibility should be evaluated. The positive predictive value and the sensitivity for thyroid cancer case ascertainment (ICD-10) of the national hospital discharge system in 1999 and 2000 were estimated using the cancer registries database of 10 French districts as gold standard. The linkage of the two databases required transmission of nominative information from the health facilities of the study. From the registries database, a logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify factors related to being missed by the hospital discharge system. Among the 973 standardized discharge charts selected from the hospital discharge system, 866 were considered as true positive cases, and 107 as false positive. Forty five of the latter group were prevalent cases. The predictive positive value was 89% (95% confidence interval (CI): 87-91%) and did not differ according to the district (p=0,80). According to the cancer registries, 322 thyroid cancer cases diagnosed in 1999 or 2000 were missed by the hospital discharge system. Thus, the sensitivity of this latter system was 73% (70-76%) and varied significantly from 62% to 85% across districts (p<0.001) and according to the type of health facility (p<0.01). Predictive positive value of the French hospital discharge system for ascertainment of thyroid cancer cases is high and stable across districts. Sensitivity is lower and varies significantly according to the type of health facility and across districts, which limits the interest of this database for a national estimate of thyroid cancer incidence rate.

Arthroscopic and magnetic resonance imaging evaluation of meniscus lesions in the chronic anterior cruciate ligament-deficient knee.

PubMed

Naranje, Sameer; Mittal, Ravi; Nag, Hiralal; Sharma, Raju

2008-09-01

We performed this prospective study to evaluate the incidence of meniscus tears arthroscopically and the effectiveness of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting these lesions in patients with chronic anterior cruciate ligament (ACL)-deficient knees. We reviewed 50 patients (46 male and 4 female) with a mean age of 27 years (range, 18 to 48 years) who underwent ACL reconstruction for chronic ACL tears. Injuries were classified as chronic because arthroscopy was performed after more than 6 weeks of injury. All 50 patients had clinical and MRI evaluation followed by knee arthroscopy. The MRI and arthroscopic findings were then analyzed by a single independent reviewer. The presence of meniscus tears and their morphologic types and locations were analyzed. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of MRI were calculated. On arthroscopy, a medial meniscus tear was found in 18 patients (36%), a lateral meniscus tear was found in 11 patients (22%), both menisci were torn in 8 patients (16%), and no meniscus lesion was found in 13 patients (26%). The most common morphologic type of tear seen in the medial meniscus was "complex" (n = 11 [42%]), and that in the lateral meniscus was "longitudinal" (n = 10 [53%]). The posterior horn of the meniscus was the most common tear site. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for detecting meniscus tears in chronic ACL-deficient knees on MRI were 90%, 89%, 87%, 93%, respectively. We conclude from our study that in chronic ACL-deficient patients, the prevalence of posterior horn medial meniscus tears seems to be high. Anterior horn tears and radial and horizontal patterns of meniscus tears seem to be rare in chronic ACL deficiency. MRI correlates well with arthroscopy and has high negative predictive values. Level I, prognostic prospective study.

Predicting cloud-to-ground lightning with neural networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, Arnold A., Jr.; Frankel, Donald; Draper, James Stark

1991-01-01

A neural network is being trained to predict lightning at Cape Canaveral for periods up to two hours in advance. Inputs consist of ground based field mill data, meteorological tower data, lightning location data, and radiosonde data. High values of the field mill data and rapid changes in the field mill data, offset in time, provide the forecasts or desired output values used to train the neural network through backpropagation. Examples of input data are shown and an example of data compression using a hidden layer in the neural network is discussed.

VLF propagation measurements in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauber, Wilfred R.; Bertrand, Jean M.

1993-05-01

For the past three years, during a period of high sun spot numbers, propagation measurements were made on the reception of VLF signals in the Canadian Arctic. Between Aug. and Dec. 1989, the received signal strengths were measured on the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker, John A. MacDonald in the Eastern Canadian Arctic. Between Jul. 1991 and Jun. 1992, the received signal strengths were measured at Nanisivik, Baffin Island. The purposes of this work were to check the accuracy and estimate variances of the Naval Ocean Systems Center's (NOSC) Long Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) predictions in the Canadian Arctic and to gather ionospheric storm data. In addition, the NOSC data taken at Fort Smith and our data at Nanisivik were used to test the newly developed Longwave Noise Prediction (LNP) program and the CCIR noise predictions, at 21.4 and 24.0 kHz. The results of the work presented and discussed in this paper show that in general the LWPC predicts accurate values of received signal strength in the Canadian Arctic with standard deviations of 1 to 2 dB over several months. Ionospheric storms can gauge the received signal strengths to decrease some 10 dB for a period of several hours or days. However, the effects of these storms are highly dependent on the propagation path. Finally the new LNP atmospheric noise model predicts lower values of noise in the Arctic than the CCIR model and our limited measurements tend to support these lower values.

Waist circumference shows the highest predictive value for metabolic syndrome, and waist-to-hip ratio for its components, in Spanish adolescents.

PubMed

Perona, Javier S; Schmidt-RioValle, Jacqueline; Rueda-Medina, Blanca; Correa-Rodríguez, María; González-Jiménez, Emilio

2017-09-01

Both waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) have been proposed as predictors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adolescents, but no consensus has been reached to date. This study hypothesizes that WC provides a greater predictive value for MetS in Spanish adolescents than WHR. A cross-sectional study was performed on 1001 adolescents (13.2 ± 1.2 years) randomly recruited from schools in southeast Spain. Anthropometric measures were correlated with the components of MetS (triglycerides, glucose, blood pressure, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) as well as inflammation markers (interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha , C-reactive protein, and ceruloplasmin). Receiver-operator curves were created to determine the predictive value of these variables for MetS. Boys had higher values of all anthropometric parameters compared with girls, but the prevalence of MetS was significantly higher in girls. WHR was the only parameter that correlated significantly with all biochemical and inflammatory variables in boys. In girls, WHR, body mass index, waist-to-height ratio, WC, and body fat percentage correlated only with plasma insulin levels, systolic and diastolic pressures, and ceruloplasmin. In both groups, all anthropometric measures were able to predict MetS (area under the curve > 0.94). In particular, WC was able to predict MetS with area under the curve = 1.00. However, WHR was able to predict a higher number of components of MetS. WHR was the anthropometric index that showed the highest predictive value for MetS components, whereas WC was the one that best predicted the MetS among the population of adolescents studied. These findings justify the need to incorporate WHR and WC determinations into daily clinical practice to predict the MetS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of Acute Liver Failure in Patients With Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Evaluation of Hy's Law and a New Prognostic Model.

PubMed

Lo Re, Vincent; Haynes, Kevin; Forde, Kimberly A; Goldberg, David S; Lewis, James D; Carbonari, Dena M; Leidl, Kimberly B F; Reddy, K Rajender; Nezamzadeh, Melissa S; Roy, Jason; Sha, Daohang; Marks, Amy R; De Boer, Jolanda; Schneider, Jennifer L; Strom, Brian L; Corley, Douglas A

2015-12-01

Few studies have evaluated the ability of laboratory tests to predict risk of acute liver failure (ALF) among patients with drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We aimed to develop a highly sensitive model to identify DILI patients at increased risk of ALF. We compared its performance with that of Hy's Law, which predicts severity of DILI based on levels of alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, and validated the model in a separate sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 15,353 Kaiser Permanente Northern California members diagnosed with DILI from 2004 through 2010, liver aminotransferase levels above the upper limit of normal, and no pre-existing liver disease. Thirty ALF events were confirmed by medical record review. Logistic regression was used to develop prognostic models for ALF based on laboratory results measured at DILI diagnosis. External validation was performed in a sample of 76 patients with DILI at the University of Pennsylvania. Hy's Law identified patients that developed ALF with a high level of specificity (0.92) and negative predictive value (0.99), but low level of sensitivity (0.68) and positive predictive value (0.02). The model we developed, comprising data on platelet count and total bilirubin level, identified patients with ALF with a C statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.96) and enabled calculation of a risk score (Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score). We found a cut-off score that identified patients at high risk patients for ALF with a sensitivity value of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99) and a specificity value of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77). This cut-off score identified patients at high risk for ALF with a high level of sensitivity (0.89; 95% CI, 0.52-1.00) in the validation analysis. Hy's Law identifies patients with DILI at high risk for ALF with low sensitivity but high specificity. We developed a model (the Drug-Induced Liver Toxicity ALF Score) based on platelet count and total bilirubin level that identifies patients at increased risk for ALF with high sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ability of preoperative 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging to predict the absence of side-specific extracapsular extension of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Hara, Tomohiko; Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Tohru; Komiyama, Motokiyo; Kawahara, Takashi; Manabe, Tomoko; Miyake, Mototaka; Arai, Eri; Kanai, Yae; Fujimoto, Hiroyuki

2013-10-01

Recent studies have shown an improvement in prostate cancer diagnosis with the use of 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging. We retrospectively assessed the ability of this imaging technique to predict side-specific extracapsular extension of prostate cancer. From October 2007 to August 2011, prostatectomy was carried out in 396 patients after preoperative 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging. Among these, 132 (primary sample) and 134 patients (validation sample) underwent 12-core prostate biopsy at the National Cancer Center Hospital of Tokyo, Japan, and at other institutions, respectively. In the primary dataset, univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to predict side-specific extracapsular extension using variables determined preoperatively, including 3.0-Tesla magnetic resonance imaging findings (T2-weighted and diffusion-weighted imaging). A prediction model was then constructed and applied to the validation study sample. Multivariate analysis identified four significant independent predictors (P < 0.05), including a biopsy Gleason score of ≥8, positive 3.0-Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging findings, ≥2 positive biopsy cores on each side and a maximum percentage of positive cores ≥31% on each side. The negative predictive value was 93.9% in the combination model with these four predictors, meanwhile the positive predictive value was 33.8%. Good reproducibility of these four significant predictors and the combination model was observed in the validation study sample. The side-specific extracapsular extension prediction by the biopsy Gleason score and factors associated with tumor location, including a positive 3.0-Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging finding, have a high negative predictive value, but a low positive predictive value. © 2013 The Japanese Urological Association.

Prevalence and prediction of exercise-induced oxygen desaturation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

van Gestel, A J R; Clarenbach, C F; Stöwhas, A C; Teschler, S; Russi, E W; Teschler, H; Kohler, M

2012-01-01

Previous studies with small sample sizes reported contradicting findings as to whether pulmonary function tests can predict exercise-induced oxygen desaturation (EID). To evaluate whether forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)), resting oxygen saturation (SpO(2)) and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) are predictors of EID in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We measured FEV(1), DLCO, SpO(2) at rest and during a 6-min walking test as well as physical activity by an accelerometer. A drop in SpO(2) of >4 to <90% was defined as EID. To evaluate associations between measures of lung function and EID univariate and multivariate analyses were used and positive/negative predictive values were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the most useful threshold in order to predict/exclude EID. We included 154 patients with COPD (87 females). The mean FEV(1) was 43.0% (19.2) predicted and the prevalence of EID was 61.7%. The only independent predictor of EID was FEV(1) and the optimal cutoff value of FEV(1) was at 50% predicted (area under ROC curve, 0.85; p < 0.001). The positive predictive value of a threshold of FEV(1) <50% was 0.83 with a likelihood ratio of 3.03 and the negative predicting value of a threshold of FEV(1) ≥80% was 1.0. The severity of EID was correlated with daily physical activity (r = -0.31, p = 0.008). EID is highly prevalent among patients with COPD and can be predicted by FEV(1). EID seems to be associated with impaired daily physical activity which supports its clinical importance. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Added value of delayed computed tomography angiography in primary intracranial hemorrhage and hematoma size for predicting spot sign.

PubMed

Wu, Te Chang; Chen, Tai Yuan; Shiue, Yow Ling; Chen, Jeon Hor; Hsieh, Tsyh-Jyi; Ko, Ching Chung; Lin, Ching Po

2018-04-01

Background The computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign represents active contrast extravasation within acute primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and is an independent predictor of hematoma expansion (HE) and poor clinical outcomes. The spot sign could be detected on first-pass CTA (fpCTA) or delayed CTA (dCTA). Purpose To investigate the additional benefits of dCTA spot sign in primary ICH and hematoma size for predicting spot sign. Material and Methods This is a retrospective study of 100 patients who underwent non-contrast CT (NCCT) and CTA within 24 h of onset of primary ICH. The presence of spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA, and hematoma size on NCCT were recorded. The spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA for predicting significant HE, in-hospital mortality, and poor clinical outcomes (mRS ≥ 4) are calculated. The hematoma size for prediction of CTA spot sign was also analyzed. Results Only the spot sign on dCTA could predict high risk of significant HE and poor clinical outcomes as on fpCTA ( P < 0.05). With dCTA, there is increased sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) for predicting significant HE, in-hospital mortality, and poor clinical outcomes. The XY value (product of the two maximum perpendicular axial dimensions) is the best predictor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.82) for predicting spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA in the absence of intraventricular and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusion This study clarifies that dCTA imaging could improve predictive performance of CTA in primary ICH. Furthermore, the XY value is the best predictor for CTA spot sign.

Validity of Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Korean Revised Version for Screening Alcohol Use Disorder according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition Criteria.

PubMed

Chang, Jung Wei; Kim, Jong Sung; Jung, Jin Gyu; Kim, Sung Soo; Yoon, Seok Joon; Jang, Hak Sun

2016-11-01

The Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) has been widely used to identify alcohol use disorder (AUD). This study evaluated the validity of the AUDIT-Korean revised version (AUDIT-KR) for screening AUD according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition (DSM-5) criteria. This research was conducted with 443 subjects who visited the Chungnam National University Hospital for a comprehensive medical examination. All subjects completed the demographic questionnaire and AUDIT-KR without assistance. Subjects were divided into two groups according to DSM-5 criteria: an AUD group, which included patients that fit the criteria for AUD (120 males and 21 females), and a non-AUD group, which included 146 males and 156 females that did not meet AUD criteria. The appropriate cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the AUDIT-KR were evaluated. The mean±standard deviation AUDIT-KR scores were 10.32±7.48 points in males and 3.23±4.42 points in females. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval, CI) of the AUDIT-KR for identifying AUD was 0.884 (0.840-0.920) in males and 0.962 (0.923-0.985) in females. The optimal cut-off value of the AUDIT-KR was 10 points for males (sensitivity, 81.90%; specificity, 81.33%; positive predictive value, 77.2%; negative predictive value, 85.3%) and 5 points for females (sensitivity, 100.00%; specificity, 88.54%; positive predictive value, 52.6%; negative predictive value, 100.0%). The AUDIT-KR has high reliability and validity for identifying AUD according to DSM-5 criteria.

Comparison of bronchoalveolar lavage cytology and transbronchial biopsy in the diagnosis of carcinoma of lung.

PubMed

Ahmed, Ayesha; Ahmed, Sajjad

2004-01-01

The objectives of this study were to compare bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytology and transbronchial biopsy in the diagnosis of carcinoma lung and to determine accuracy of BAL cytology using histopathlologic examination of transbronchial biopsy as gold standard at our center. This study was carried out at Department of Histopathology, Ayub Medical College, Abbottabad, from 1.09.2000 to 28.02.2003. BAL fluid and bronchial biopsy were received and processed simultaneously. Four cytology and a set of histopathology slides were prepared. These were screened and diagnosis recorded. Sensitivity, Specificity, False Positive, False Negative, Positive predictive value and Negative predictive value of BAL cytology were determined using histopathology of transbronchial biopsy as gold standard. We found the sensitivity of BAL cytology to be 93.44% as compared with transbronchial biopsy. The specificity was 100%. There was no false positive while false negative results were 6.55 %. The positive predictive value was 100 %, while the negative predictive value was 75 %. The overall diagnostic efficacy of BAL cytology was 94.52 %. BAL cytology is a highly sensitive and specific test for diagnosis of carcinoma lung. It can be used as a quick and reliable diagnostic method for diagnosis of lung malignancy.

Determination of the alpha(s) using jet rates at LEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donkers, Michael A.

Jets are produced in any high energy collision of particles in which quarks are produced in the final state. Using the OPAL detector to measure particles produced in e+e- collisions at the LEP accelerator, the rate of jet formation has been measured at 91 GeV as well as each of the LEP2 energies, ranging from 161 GeV to 207 GeV. The jet rate observables, in particular the differential 2-jet rate and the average jet rate can be used to determine a value of the strong coupling constant, alphas, by fitting to various theoretical predictions. The value of alphas has been determined using data at 91 GeV and a combined sample comprising all of the LEP2 energies with a luminosity weighted centre-of-mass energy of 195.8 GeV for 10 theoretical predictions and two jet clustering algorithms. A fit of the 91 GeV and LEP2 values of alphas determined using the ln R matching prediction is also performed on the D2 and distributions to the 3-loop alphas prediction to produce 4 values of alphas(MZ 0).

Prediction of mechanical properties of composites of HDPE/HA/EAA.

PubMed

Albano, C; Perera, R; Cataño, L; Karam, A; González, G

2011-04-01

In this investigation, the behavior of the mechanical properties of composites of high-density polyethylene/hydroxyapatite (HDPE/HA) with and without ethylene-acrylic acid copolymer (EAA) as possible compatibilizer, was studied. Different mathematical models were used to predict their Young's modulus, tensile strength and elongation at break. A comparison with the experimental results shows that the theoretical models of Guth and Kerner modified can be used to predict the Young's modulus. On the other hand, the values obtained by the Verbeek model do not show a good agreement with the experimental data, since different factors that influence the mechanical properties are considered in this model such as: aspect ratio of the reinforcement, interfacial adhesion, porosity and binder content. TEM analysis confirms the discrepancies obtained between the experimental Young's modulus values and those predicted by the Verbeek model. The values of "P", "a" and "σ(A)" suggest that an interaction among the carboxylic groups of the copolymer and the hydroxyl groups of hydroxyapatite might be present. In composites with 20 and 30 wt% of filler, this interaction does not improve the Young's modulus values, since the deviations of the Verbeek model are significant. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity and Specificity of Histoplasma Antigen Detection by Enzyme Immunoassay.

PubMed

Cunningham, Lauren; Cook, Audrey; Hanzlicek, Andrew; Harkin, Kenneth; Wheat, Joseph; Goad, Carla; Kirsch, Emily

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of an antigen enzyme immunoassay (EIA) on urine samples for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs. This retrospective medical records review included canine cases with urine samples submitted for Histoplasma EIA antigen assay between 2007 and 2011 from three veterinary institutions. Cases for which urine samples were submitted for Histoplasma antigen testing were reviewed and compared to the gold standard of finding Histoplasma organisms or an alternative diagnosis on cytology or histopathology. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, and the kappa coefficient and associated confidence interval were calculated for the EIA-based Histoplasma antigen assay. Sixty cases met the inclusion criteria. Seventeen cases were considered true positives based on identification of the organism, and 41 cases were considered true negatives with an alternative definitive diagnosis. Two cases were considered false negatives, and there were no false positives. Sensitivity was 89.47% and the negative predictive value was 95.35%. Specificity and the positive predictive value were both 100%. The kappa coefficient was 0.9207 (95% confidence interval, 0.8131-1). The Histoplasma antigen EIA test demonstrated high specificity and sensitivity for the diagnosis of histoplasmosis in dogs.

Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course

PubMed Central

van Loo, Hanna M.; Cai, Tianxi; Gruber, Michael J.; Li, Junlong; de Jonge, Peter; Petukhova, Maria; Rose, Sherri; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoevers, Robert A.; Wardenaar, Klaas J.; Wilcox, Marsha A.; Al-Hamzawi, Ali Obaid; Andrade, Laura Helena; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Bunting, Brendan; Fayyad, John; Florescu, Silvia E.; Gureje, Oye; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Levinson, Daphna; Medina-Mora, Maria Elena; Nakane, Yoshibumi; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Xavier, Miguel; Zarkov, Zahari; Kessler, Ronald C.

2016-01-01

Background Variation in course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. Methods Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs) followed by k-means cluster analysis, are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode; number of with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD; disability due to MDD). Results Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity and was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data. PMID:24425049

Fall prediction according to nurses' clinical judgment: differences between medical, surgical, and geriatric wards.

PubMed

Milisen, Koen; Coussement, Joke; Flamaing, Johan; Vlaeyen, Ellen; Schwendimann, René; Dejaeger, Eddy; Surmont, Kurt; Boonen, Steven

2012-06-01

To assess the value of nurses' clinical judgment (NCJ) in predicting hospital inpatient falls. Prospective multicenter study. Six Belgian hospitals. Two thousand four hundred seventy participants (mean age 67.6 ± 18.3; female, 55.7%) on four surgical (n = 812, 32.9%), eight geriatric (n = 666, 27.0%), and four general medical wards (n = 992, 40.1%) were included upon admission. All participants were hospitalized for at least 48 hours. Within 24 hours after admission, nurses gave their judgment on the question "Do you think your patient is at high risk for falling?" Nurses were not trained in assessing fall risk. Falls were documented on a standardized incident report form. During hospitalization, 143 (5.8%) participants experienced one or more falls, accounting for 202 falls and corresponding to an overall rate of 7.9 falls per 1,000 patient days. NCJ of participant's risk of falling had high sensitivity (78-92%) with high negative predictive value (94-100%) but low positive predictive value (4-17%). Although false-negative rates were low (8-22%) for all departments and age groups, false-positive rates were high (55-74%), except on surgical and general medical wards and in participants younger than 75. This analysis, based on multicenter data and a large sample size, suggests that NCJ can be recommended on surgical and general medical wards and in individuals younger than 75, but on geriatric wards and in participants aged 75 and older, NCJ overestimates risk of falling and is thus not recommended because expensive comprehensive fall-prevention measures would be implemented in a large number of individuals who do not need it. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

[Prognosis of acute pancreatitis by PANC 3 score].

PubMed

Fukuda, James Ken; Franzon, Orli; Resende-Filho, Fernando de Oliveira; Kruel, Nicolau Fernandes; Ferri, Thiago Alessandro

2013-06-01

Acute pancreatitis is a disease of great importance in clinical practice, defined as an inflammatory process of the pancreas that may involve local tissues or affect other organs in a systemic manner, requiring, in such cases, an intensive care. To analyze the simplified stratification system of the PANC 3 score, correlating it with the Ranson score, for the prognostic definition of cases of acute pancreatitis. Was conducted a prospective, observational study in which were evaluated 65 patients who were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. PANC 3 showed sensitivity, 31.25%; specificity,100%; positive predictive value, 100%; negative predictive value, 81.66% and accuracy, 83.07%. The PANC 3 criteria are applicable to define the severity and the prognosis of acute pancreatitis, and are not a substitute method, but rather a method to be associated with the Ranson criteria, mainly due to its high accuracy, positive predictive value and specificity.

Validation of the Five-Phase Method for Simulating Complex Fenestration Systems with Radiance against Field Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geisler-Moroder, David; Lee, Eleanor S.; Ward, Gregory J.

2016-08-29

The Five-Phase Method (5-pm) for simulating complex fenestration systems with Radiance is validated against field measurements. The capability of the method to predict workplane illuminances, vertical sensor illuminances, and glare indices derived from captured and rendered high dynamic range (HDR) images is investigated. To be able to accurately represent the direct sun part of the daylight not only in sensor point simulations, but also in renderings of interior scenes, the 5-pm calculation procedure was extended. The validation shows that the 5-pm is superior to the Three-Phase Method for predicting horizontal and vertical illuminance sensor values as well as glare indicesmore » derived from rendered images. Even with input data from global and diffuse horizontal irradiance measurements only, daylight glare probability (DGP) values can be predicted within 10% error of measured values for most situations.« less

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Pottier, Julien; Malenovský, Zbyněk; Psomas, Achilleas; Homolová, Lucie; Schaepman, Michael E.; Choler, Philippe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guisan, Antoine; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2014-01-01

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data. PMID:25079495

Self-diagnosis of active head lice infestation by individuals from an impoverished community: high sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Pilger, Daniel; Khakban, Adak; Heukelbach, Jorg; Feldmeier, Hermann

2008-01-01

To compare sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of self-diagnosis for head lice infestation with visual inspection, we conducted a study in an urban slum in Brazil. Individuals were asked about active head lice infestation (self-diagnosis); we performed visual inspection and thereafter wet combing (gold standard). Of the 175 individuals included, 77 (44%) had an active head lice infestation. For self-diagnosis, sensitivity (80.5%), specificity (91.8%), PPV (88.6%) and NPV (85.7%) were high. Sensitivity of visual inspection was 35.1%. Public health professionals can use self-diagnosis as a diagnostic tool, to estimate accurately prevalence of pediculosis in a community, and to monitor ongoing intervention strategies.

FLOCK cluster analysis of mast cell event clustering by high-sensitivity flow cytometry predicts systemic mastocytosis.

PubMed

Dorfman, David M; LaPlante, Charlotte D; Pozdnyakova, Olga; Li, Betty

2015-11-01

In our high-sensitivity flow cytometric approach for systemic mastocytosis (SM), we identified mast cell event clustering as a new diagnostic criterion for the disease. To objectively characterize mast cell gated event distributions, we performed cluster analysis using FLOCK, a computational approach to identify cell subsets in multidimensional flow cytometry data in an unbiased, automated fashion. FLOCK identified discrete mast cell populations in most cases of SM (56/75 [75%]) but only a minority of non-SM cases (17/124 [14%]). FLOCK-identified mast cell populations accounted for 2.46% of total cells on average in SM cases and 0.09% of total cells on average in non-SM cases (P < .0001) and were predictive of SM, with a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 86%, a positive predictive value of 76%, and a negative predictive value of 85%. FLOCK analysis provides useful diagnostic information for evaluating patients with suspected SM, and may be useful for the analysis of other hematopoietic neoplasms. Copyright© by the American Society for Clinical Pathology.

Development of NIRS models to predict protein and amylose content of brown rice and proximate compositions of rice bran.

PubMed

Bagchi, Torit Baran; Sharma, Srigopal; Chattopadhyay, Krishnendu

2016-01-15

With the escalating persuasion of economic and nutritional importance of rice grain protein and nutritional components of rice bran (RB), NIRS can be an effective tool for high throughput screening in rice breeding programme. Optimization of NIRS is prerequisite for accurate prediction of grain quality parameters. In the present study, 173 brown rice (BR) and 86 RB samples with a wide range of values were used to compare the calibration models generated by different chemometrics for grain protein (GPC) and amylose content (AC) of BR and proximate compositions (protein, crude oil, moisture, ash and fiber content) of RB. Various modified partial least square (mPLSs) models corresponding with the best mathematical treatments were identified for all components. Another set of 29 genotypes derived from the breeding programme were employed for the external validation of these calibration models. High accuracy of all these calibration and prediction models was ensured through pair t-test and correlation regression analysis between reference and predicted values. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting rheological behavior and baking quality of wheat flour using a GlutoPeak test.

PubMed

Rakita, Slađana; Dokić, Ljubica; Dapčević Hadnađev, Tamara; Hadnađev, Miroslav; Torbica, Aleksandra

2018-06-01

The purpose of this research was to gain an insight into the ability of the GlutoPeak instrument to predict flour functionality for bread making, as well as to determine which of the GlutoPeak parameters show the best potential in predicting dough rheological behavior and baking performance. Obtained results showed that GlutoPeak parameters correlated better with the indices of extensional rheological tests which consider constant dough hydration than with those which were performed at constant dough consistency. The GlutoPeak test showed that it is suitable for discriminating wheat varieties of good quality from those of poor quality, while the most discriminating index was maximum torque (MT). Moreover, MT value of 50 BU and aggregation energy value of 1,300 GPU were set as limits of wheat flour quality. The backward stepwise regression analysis revealed that a high-level prediction of indices which are highly affected by protein content (gluten content, flour water absorption, and dough tenacity) was achieved by using the GlutoPeak indices. Concerning bread quality, a moderate prediction of specific loaf volume and an intense level prediction of breadcrumb textural properties were accomplished by using the GlutoPeak parameters. The presented results indicated that the application of this quick test in wheat transformation chain for the assessment of baking quality would be useful. Baking test is considered as the most reliable method for assessing wheat-baking quality. However, baking test requires trained stuff, time, and large sample amount. These disadvantages have led to a growing demand to develop new rapid tests which would enable prediction of baked product quality with a limited flour size. Therefore, we tested the possibility of using a GlutoPeak tester to predict loaf volume and breadcrumb textural properties. Discrimination of wheat varieties according to quality with a restricted flour amount was also examined. Furthermore, we proposed the limit values of GlutoPeak parameters which would be highly beneficial for millers and bakers when determine suitability of flour for end-use. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Academic motivation, self-concept, engagement, and performance in high school: key processes from a longitudinal perspective.

PubMed

Green, Jasmine; Liem, Gregory Arief D; Martin, Andrew J; Colmar, Susan; Marsh, Herbert W; McInerney, Dennis

2012-10-01

The study tested three theoretically/conceptually hypothesized longitudinal models of academic processes leading to academic performance. Based on a longitudinal sample of 1866 high-school students across two consecutive years of high school (Time 1 and Time 2), the model with the most superior heuristic value demonstrated: (a) academic motivation and self-concept positively predicted attitudes toward school; (b) attitudes toward school positively predicted class participation and homework completion and negatively predicted absenteeism; and (c) class participation and homework completion positively predicted test performance whilst absenteeism negatively predicted test performance. Taken together, these findings provide support for the relevance of the self-system model and, particularly, the importance of examining the dynamic relationships amongst engagement factors of the model. The study highlights implications for educational and psychological theory, measurement, and intervention. Copyright © 2012 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional analysis of a large set of BRCA2 exon 7 variants highlights the predictive value of hexamer scores in detecting alterations of exonic splicing regulatory elements.

PubMed

Di Giacomo, Daniela; Gaildrat, Pascaline; Abuli, Anna; Abdat, Julie; Frébourg, Thierry; Tosi, Mario; Martins, Alexandra

2013-11-01

Exonic variants can alter pre-mRNA splicing either by changing splice sites or by modifying splicing regulatory elements. Often these effects are difficult to predict and are only detected by performing RNA analyses. Here, we analyzed, in a minigene assay, 26 variants identified in the exon 7 of BRCA2, a cancer predisposition gene. Our results revealed eight new exon skipping mutations in this exon: one directly altering the 5' splice site and seven affecting potential regulatory elements. This brings the number of splicing regulatory mutations detected in BRCA2 exon 7 to a total of 11, a remarkably high number considering the total number of variants reported in this exon (n = 36), all tested in our minigene assay. We then exploited this large set of splicing data to test the predictive value of splicing regulator hexamers' scores recently established by Ke et al. (). Comparisons of hexamer-based predictions with our experimental data revealed high sensitivity in detecting variants that increased exon skipping, an important feature for prescreening variants before RNA analysis. In conclusion, hexamer scores represent a promising tool for predicting the biological consequences of exonic variants and may have important applications for the interpretation of variants detected by high-throughput sequencing. © 2013 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

A Ranking Approach to Genomic Selection.

PubMed

Blondel, Mathieu; Onogi, Akio; Iwata, Hiroyoshi; Ueda, Naonori

2015-01-01

Genomic selection (GS) is a recent selective breeding method which uses predictive models based on whole-genome molecular markers. Until now, existing studies formulated GS as the problem of modeling an individual's breeding value for a particular trait of interest, i.e., as a regression problem. To assess predictive accuracy of the model, the Pearson correlation between observed and predicted trait values was used. In this paper, we propose to formulate GS as the problem of ranking individuals according to their breeding value. Our proposed framework allows us to employ machine learning methods for ranking which had previously not been considered in the GS literature. To assess ranking accuracy of a model, we introduce a new measure originating from the information retrieval literature called normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). NDCG rewards more strongly models which assign a high rank to individuals with high breeding value. Therefore, NDCG reflects a prerequisite objective in selective breeding: accurate selection of individuals with high breeding value. We conducted a comparison of 10 existing regression methods and 3 new ranking methods on 6 datasets, consisting of 4 plant species and 25 traits. Our experimental results suggest that tree-based ensemble methods including McRank, Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Regression Trees achieve excellent ranking accuracy. RKHS regression and RankSVM also achieve good accuracy when used with an RBF kernel. Traditional regression methods such as Bayesian lasso, wBSR and BayesC were found less suitable for ranking. Pearson correlation was found to correlate poorly with NDCG. Our study suggests two important messages. First, ranking methods are a promising research direction in GS. Second, NDCG can be a useful evaluation measure for GS.

Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS). Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP) and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow), are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in other settings: despite the continued medical focus on drugs for BP and cholesterol, high levels of BP and cholesterol have little predictive value of mortality in this elderly population. PMID:22694922

Recurrence predictive models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after radiofrequency ablation using support vector machines with feature selection methods.

PubMed

Liang, Ja-Der; Ping, Xiao-Ou; Tseng, Yi-Ju; Huang, Guan-Tarn; Lai, Feipei; Yang, Pei-Ming

2014-12-01

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important issue despite effective treatments with tumor eradication. Identification of patients who are at high risk for recurrence may provide more efficacious screening and detection of tumor recurrence. The aim of this study was to develop recurrence predictive models for HCC patients who received radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatment. From January 2007 to December 2009, 83 newly diagnosed HCC patients receiving RFA as their first treatment were enrolled. Five feature selection methods including genetic algorithm (GA), simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, random forests (RF) and hybrid methods (GA+RF and SA+RF) were utilized for selecting an important subset of features from a total of 16 clinical features. These feature selection methods were combined with support vector machine (SVM) for developing predictive models with better performance. Five-fold cross-validation was used to train and test SVM models. The developed SVM-based predictive models with hybrid feature selection methods and 5-fold cross-validation had averages of the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the ROC curve as 67%, 86%, 82%, 69%, 90%, and 0.69, respectively. The SVM derived predictive model can provide suggestive high-risk recurrent patients, who should be closely followed up after complete RFA treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unravelling the magnetism, high spin polarization and thermoelectric efficiency of ZrFeSi half-Heusler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousuf, Saleem; Gupta, D. C.

2018-04-01

We report the systematic investigation of structural properties, occupancy of density of states, nature of bonding and thermoelectric efficiency of half-Heusler ZrFeSi. The band structure analysis predicts the hybridization of Zr-d and Fe-d metal atoms resulting in occupation of density of states above the Fermi level (EF) while Fe-p and Si-p occupy the lower energy states below the EF. Thermoelectric transport coefficients are predicted using the Boltzmann transport theory under constant relaxation approximation, where Seebeck coefficient (S), total thermal conductivity and figure of merit are calculated. The negative value of total S as -14.02 μV/K predicts the material as n-type with thermoelectric figure of merit (zT) of 0.5 at 800 K. The lattice thermal conductivity decreases with increasing temperature with room temperature value of 4.18 W/mK and shows a significant reduction towards higher temperatures. In view of above elements, structural stability, high zT, ZrFeSi alloy have the capabilities to stimulate experimental verification as a promising materials for high temperature power generation and spintronic device fabrications.

A nonparametric multiple imputation approach for missing categorical data.

PubMed

Zhou, Muhan; He, Yulei; Yu, Mandi; Hsu, Chiu-Hsieh

2017-06-06

Incomplete categorical variables with more than two categories are common in public health data. However, most of the existing missing-data methods do not use the information from nonresponse (missingness) probabilities. We propose a nearest-neighbour multiple imputation approach to impute a missing at random categorical outcome and to estimate the proportion of each category. The donor set for imputation is formed by measuring distances between each missing value with other non-missing values. The distance function is calculated based on a predictive score, which is derived from two working models: one fits a multinomial logistic regression for predicting the missing categorical outcome (the outcome model) and the other fits a logistic regression for predicting missingness probabilities (the missingness model). A weighting scheme is used to accommodate contributions from two working models when generating the predictive score. A missing value is imputed by randomly selecting one of the non-missing values with the smallest distances. We conduct a simulation to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and compare it with several alternative methods. A real-data application is also presented. The simulation study suggests that the proposed method performs well when missingness probabilities are not extreme under some misspecifications of the working models. However, the calibration estimator, which is also based on two working models, can be highly unstable when missingness probabilities for some observations are extremely high. In this scenario, the proposed method produces more stable and better estimates. In addition, proper weights need to be chosen to balance the contributions from the two working models and achieve optimal results for the proposed method. We conclude that the proposed multiple imputation method is a reasonable approach to dealing with missing categorical outcome data with more than two levels for assessing the distribution of the outcome. In terms of the choices for the working models, we suggest a multinomial logistic regression for predicting the missing outcome and a binary logistic regression for predicting the missingness probability.

Prediction of cardiovascular outcome by estimated glomerular filtration rate and estimated creatinine clearance in the high-risk hypertension population of the VALUE trial.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Zanchetti, Alberto; Julius, Stevo; McInnes, Gordon T; Segura, Julian; Stolt, Pelle; Hua, Tsushung A; Weber, Michael A; Jamerson, Ken

2007-07-01

Reduced renal function is predictive of poor cardiovascular outcomes but the predictive value of different measures of renal function is uncertain. We compared the value of estimated creatinine clearance, using the Cockcroft-Gault formula, with that of estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR), using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula, as predictors of cardiovascular outcome in 15 245 high-risk hypertensive participants in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial. For the primary end-point, the three secondary end-points and for all-cause death, outcomes were compared for individuals with baseline estimated creatinine clearance and estimated GFR < 60 ml/min and > or = 60 ml/min using hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, age, sex and treatment effects were included as covariates in the model. For each end-point considered, the risk in individuals with poor renal function at baseline was greater than in those with better renal function. Estimated creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) was significantly predictive only of all-cause death [hazard ratio = 1.223, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.076-1.390; P = 0.0021] whereas estimated GFR was predictive of all outcomes except stroke. Hazard ratios (95% CIs) for estimated GFR were: primary cardiac end-point, 1.497 (1.332-1.682), P < 0.0001; myocardial infarction, 1.501 (1.254-1.796), P < 0.0001; congestive heart failure, 1.699 (1.435-2.013), P < 0.0001; stroke, 1.152 (0.952-1.394) P = 0.1452; and all-cause death, 1.231 (1.098-1.380), P = 0.0004. These results indicate that estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated with the MDRD formula is more informative than estimated creatinine clearance (Cockcroft-Gault) in the prediction of cardiovascular outcomes.

The predictive value of skin prick testing for challenge-proven food allergy: a systematic review.

PubMed

Peters, Rachel L; Gurrin, Lyle C; Allen, Katrina J

2012-06-01

Immunoglobulin E-mediated (IgE) food allergy affects 6-8% of children, and the prevalence is believed to be increasing. The gold standard of food allergy diagnosis is oral food challenges (OFCs); however, they are resource-consuming and potentially dangerous. Skin prick tests (SPTs) are able to detect the presence of allergen-specific IgE antibodies (sensitization), but they have low specificity for clinically significant food allergy. To reduce the need for OFCs, it has been suggested that children forgo an OFC if their SPT wheal size exceeds a cutoff that has a high predictability for food allergy. Although data for these studies are almost always gathered from high-risk populations, the 95% positive predictive values (PPVs) vary substantially between studies. SPT thresholds with a high probability of food allergy generated from these studies may not be generalizable to other populations, because of highly selective samples and variability in participant's age, test allergens, and food challenge protocol. Standardization of SPT devices and allergens, OFC protocols including standardized cessation criteria, and population-based samples would all help to improve generalizability of PPVs of SPTs. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Reevaluation of the thyroidal radioactive iodine uptake test, with special reference to reversible primary hypothyroidism with elevated thyroid radioiodine uptake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okamura, K.; Sato, K.; Ikenoue, H.

The clinical significance of the thyroidal radioactive iodine uptake (RAIU) test was reevaluated in patients with various thyroid disorders. Compared with 262 normal subjects or 194 patients with euthyroid diffuse goiter with normal serum TSH levels, RAIU values were significantly higher in 100 patients with latent primary hypothyroidism (serum TSH, 5-40 mU/L). In 126 patients with overt primary hypothyroidism (serum TSH, greater than 40 mU/L), RAIU values were either extremely high (49 patients with reversible hypothyroidism and 10 patients with postpartum hypothyroidism) or low (67 patients with irreversible hypothyroidism). The increase in RAIU values in latent, or reversible overt hypothyroidismmore » was TSH dependent, and there was a good correlation between RAIU values and serum TSH levels (r = 0.6203; P less than 0.001). In overt primary hypothyroidism, spontaneous recovery of thyroid function during iodide restriction alone occurred in 52 of 53 patients with RAIU values above 35%, in only 7 of 23 patients with RAIU values between 10-35%, and in none of 50 patients with RAIU below 10%. Thus, recovery was predicted by high RAIU values (P less than 0.001; prediction rate, 91.4%). Goiter was found in about 80% of the patients with reversible hypothyroidism, compared with only 34% of the patients with irreversible hypothyroidism. Recovery of thyroid function during iodide restriction also occurred in 71% of the patients with latent hypothyroidism. However, RAIU measurements did not predict the prognosis of patients with latent hypothyroidism. We conclude that iodine-induced reversible hypothyroidism is common in our patient population, and RAIU measurements may be helpful in determining the prognosis of patients with overt primary hypothyroidism.« less

Application of a new laser Doppler imaging system in planning and monitoring of surgical flaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Stefan; Wirth, Raphael; Plock, Jan A.; Serov, Alexandre; Banic, Andrej; Erni, Dominique

2010-05-01

There is a demand for technologies able to assess the perfusion of surgical flaps quantitatively and reliably to avoid ischemic complications. The aim of this study is to test a new high-speed high-definition laser Doppler imaging (LDI) system (FluxEXPLORER, Microvascular Imaging, Lausanne, Switzerland) in terms of preoperative mapping of the vascular supply (perforator vessels) and postoperative flow monitoring. The FluxEXPLORER performs perfusion mapping of an area 9×9 cm with a resolution of 256×256 pixels within 6 s in high-definition imaging mode. The sensitivity and predictability to localize perforators is expressed by the coincidence of preoperatively assessed LDI high flow spots with intraoperatively verified perforators in nine patients. 18 free flaps are monitored before, during, and after total ischemia. 63% of all verified perforators correspond to a high flow spot, and 38% of all high flow spots correspond to a verified perforator (positive predictive value). All perfused flaps reveal a value of above 221 perfusion units (PUs), and all values obtained in the ischemic flaps are beneath 187 PU. In summary, we conclude that the present LDI system can serve as a reliable, fast, and easy-to-handle tool to detect ischemia in free flaps, whereas perforator vessels cannot be detected appropriately.

Penalized Ordinal Regression Methods for Predicting Stage of Cancer in High-Dimensional Covariate Spaces.

PubMed

Gentry, Amanda Elswick; Jackson-Cook, Colleen K; Lyon, Debra E; Archer, Kellie J

2015-01-01

The pathological description of the stage of a tumor is an important clinical designation and is considered, like many other forms of biomedical data, an ordinal outcome. Currently, statistical methods for predicting an ordinal outcome using clinical, demographic, and high-dimensional correlated features are lacking. In this paper, we propose a method that fits an ordinal response model to predict an ordinal outcome for high-dimensional covariate spaces. Our method penalizes some covariates (high-throughput genomic features) without penalizing others (such as demographic and/or clinical covariates). We demonstrate the application of our method to predict the stage of breast cancer. In our model, breast cancer subtype is a nonpenalized predictor, and CpG site methylation values from the Illumina Human Methylation 450K assay are penalized predictors. The method has been made available in the ordinalgmifs package in the R programming environment.

Alcoholic hepatitis histological score has high accuracy to predict 90-day mortality and response to steroids.

PubMed

Andrade, Patrícia; Silva, Marco; Rodrigues, Susana; Lopes, Joanne; Lopes, Susana; Macedo, Guilherme

2016-06-01

A histological classification system (AHHS) has been recently proposed to predict 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We analyzed the spectrum of histological features in patients with AH and assessed the ability of AHHS for predicting both response to steroids and 90-day mortality. Retrospective study of patients admitted to our tertiary centre between 2010 and 2014 with biopsy-proven AH. Histological features were analyzed and AHHS value was calculated. Kaplan-Meyer curves were calculated to assess the ability of AHHS to predict response to steroids and 90-day mortality. We included 34 patients (70.6% men, mean age 48.5±8.9 years). Transjugular liver biopsy was performed 3.5±2.9 days after admission. Presence of bilirubinostasis (p=0.049), degree of bilirubinostasis (p<0.001), absence of megamitochondria (p<0.001) and degree of polymorphonuclear infiltration (p=0.018) were significantly associated with higher mortality at 90 days. Patients who responded to steroids had a significantly lower AHHS value than non-responders (5.4±0.9 vs 8.1±1.1, p=0.003). AAHS value was significantly higher in patients who died compared to patients who survived at 90 days (9.0±0.7 vs 5.0±0.9, p<0.001). AHHS predicted response to steroids [AUROC 0.90 (CI95% 0.742-1.000), p=0.004] and 90-day mortality [AUROC 1.0 (CI95% 1.0-1.0), p<0.001] with high accuracy. In this cohort of patients, presence and degree of bilirubinostasis, absence of megamitochondria and degree of PMN infiltration were significantly associated with 90-day mortality. AHHS had a high accuracy for predicting response to steroids and 90-day mortality in this cohort of patients. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3-D residual eddy current field characterisation: applied to diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

O'Brien, Kieran; Daducci, Alessandro; Kickler, Nils; Lazeyras, Francois; Gruetter, Rolf; Feiweier, Thorsten; Krueger, Gunnar

2013-08-01

Clinical use of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion weighted images is hampered by the geometric distortions that result from the large residual 3-D eddy current field induced. In this work, we aimed to predict, using linear response theory, the residual 3-D eddy current field required for geometric distortion correction based on phantom eddy current field measurements. The predicted 3-D eddy current field induced by the diffusion-weighting gradients was able to reduce the root mean square error of the residual eddy current field to ~1 Hz. The model's performance was tested on diffusion weighted images of four normal volunteers, following distortion correction, the quality of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion-weighted images was found to have comparable quality to image registration based corrections (FSL) at low b-values. Unlike registration techniques the correction was not hindered by low SNR at high b-values, and results in improved image quality relative to FSL. Characterization of the 3-D eddy current field with linear response theory enables the prediction of the 3-D eddy current field required to correct eddy current induced geometric distortions for a wide range of clinical and high b-value protocols.

[Predictive value of postural and dynamic walking parameters after high-volume lumbar puncture in normal pressure hydrocephalus].

PubMed

Mary, P; Gallisa, J-M; Laroque, S; Bedou, G; Maillard, A; Bousquet, C; Negre, C; Gaillard, N; Dutray, A; Fadat, B; Jurici, S; Olivier, N; Cisse, B; Sablot, D

2013-04-01

Normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) was described by Adams et al. (1965). The common clinical presentation is the triad: gait disturbance, cognitive decline and urinary incontinence. Although these symptoms are suggestive, they are not specific to diagnosis. The improvement of symptoms after high-volume lumbar puncture (hVLP) could be a strong criterion for diagnosis. We tried to determine a specific pattern of dynamic walking and posture parameters in NPH. Additionally, we tried to specify the evolution of these criteria after hVLP and to determine predictive values of ventriculoperitoneal shunting (VPS) efficiency. Sixty-four patients were followed during seven years from January 2002 to June 2009. We identified three periods: before (S1), after hVLP (S2) and after VPS (S3). The following criteria concerned walking and posture parameters: walking parameters were speed, step length and step rhythm; posture parameters were statokinesigram total length and surface, length according to the surface (LFS), average value of equilibration for lateral movements (Xmoyen), anteroposterior movements (Ymoyen), total movement length in lateral axis (longX) and anteroposterior axis (longY). Among the 64 patients included, 22 had VPS and 16 were investigated in S3. All kinematic criteria are decreased in S1 compared with normal values. hVLP improved these criteria significantly (S2). Among posture parameters, only total length and surface of statokinesigram showed improvement in S1, but no improvement in S2. A gain in speed greater or equal to 0.15m/s between S1 and S2 predicted the efficacy of VPS with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 87.1% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 69.7% (area under the ROC curve [AUC]: 0.86). Kinematic walking parameters are the most disruptive and are partially improved after hVLP. These parameters could be an interesting test for selecting candidates for VPS. These data have to be confirmed in a larger cohort. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Using the American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination to predict board certification: a cautionary study.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew T; Biester, Thomas W; Buyske, Jo; Lewis, Frank R; Malangoni, Mark A

2014-01-01

Although designed as a low-stakes formative examination, the American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination (ABSITE) is often used in high-stakes decisions such as promotion, remediation, and retention owing to its perceived ability to predict the outcome of board certification. Because of the discrepancy between intent and use, the ability of ABSITE scores to predict passing the American Board of Surgery certification examinations was analyzed. All first-time American Board of Surgery qualifying examination (QE) examinees between 2006 and 2012 were reviewed. Examinees' postgraduate year (PGY) 1 and PGY5 ABSITE standard scores were linked to QE scores and pass/fail outcomes (n = 6912 and 6846, respectively) as well as first-time certifying examination (CE) pass/fail results (n = 1329). Linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the utility of ABSITE scores to predict board certification scores and pass/fail outcomes. PGY1 ABSITE scores accounted for 22% of the variance in QE scores (p < 0.001). PGY5 scores were a slightly better predictor, accounting for 30% of QE score variance (p < 0.001). Analyses showed that selecting a PGY5 ABSITE score that maximized overall decision accuracy for predicting QE pass/fail outcomes (86% accuracy) resulted in 98% sensitivity, 13% specificity, a positive predictive value of 87%, and a negative predictive value of 57%. ABSITE scores were not predictive of success on the CE. ABSITE scores are a useful predictor of QE scores and outcomes but do not predict passing the CE. Although scoring well on the ABSITE is highly predictive of QE success, using low ABSITE scores to predict QE failure results in frequent decision errors. Program directors and other evaluators should use additional sources of information when making high-stakes decisions about resident performance. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Hengartner, M P; Heekeren, K; Dvorsky, D; Walitza, S; Rössler, W; Theodoridou, A

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics. A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Altogether n=24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC]=0.65, P<.05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC=0.52, P=.730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC=0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC=0.62 (sensitivity=0.42; specificity=0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC=0.85; sensitivity=0.86; specificity=0.85; positive predictive value=0.54; negative predictive value=0.97). We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

PubMed

Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

2015-03-01

Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

Colonic polyps: application value of computer-aided detection in computed tomographic colonography.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui-Mao; Guo, Wei; Liu, Gui-Feng; An, Dong-Hong; Gao, Shuo-Hui; Sun, Li-Bo; Yang, Hai-Shan

2011-02-01

Colonic polyps are frequently encountered in clinics. Computed tomographic colonography (CTC), as a painless and quick detection, has high values in clinics. In this study, we evaluated the application value of computer-aided detection (CAD) in CTC detection of colonic polyps in the Chinese population. CTC was performed with a GE 64-row multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scanner. Data of 50 CTC patients (39 patients positive for at least one polyp of ≥ 0.5 cm in size and the other 11 patients negative by endoscopic detection) were retrospectively reviewed first without computer-aided detection (CAD) and then with CAD by four radiologists (two were experienced and another two inexperienced) blinded to colonoscopy findings. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of detected colonic polyps, as well as the areas under the ROC curves (Az value) with and without CAD were calculated. CAD increased the overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the colonic polyps detected by experienced and inexperienced readers. The sensitivity in detecting small polyps (5 - 9 mm) with CAD in experienced and inexperienced readers increased from 82% and 44% to 93% and 82%, respectively (P > 0.05 and P < 0.001). With the use of CAD, the overall false positive rate and false negative rate for the detection of polyps by experienced and inexperienced readers decreased in different degrees. Among 13 sessile polyps not detected by CAD, two were ≥ 1.0 cm, eleven were 5 - 9 mm in diameter, and nine were flat-shaped lesions. The application of CAD in combination with CTC can increase the ability to detect colonic polyps, particularly for inexperienced readers. However, CAD is of limited value for the detection of flat polyps.

Hydrogen breath test for the diagnosis of lactose intolerance, is the routine sugar load the best one?

PubMed Central

Argnani, Fiorenza; Camillo, Mauro Di; Marinaro, Vanessa; Foglietta, Tiziana; Avallone, Veronica; Cannella, Carlo; Vernia, Piero

2008-01-01

AIM: To evaluate the prevalence of lactose intolerance (LI) following a load of 12.5 g in patients diagnosed as high-grade malabsorbers using the hydrogen breath test (HBT)-25. METHODS: Ninety patients showing high-grade malabsorption at HBT-25 were submitted to a second HBT with a lactose load of 12.5 g. Peak hydrogen production, area under the curve of hydrogen excretion and occurrence of symptoms were recorded. RESULTS: Only 16 patients (17.77%) with positive HBT-25 proved positive at HBT-12.5. Hydrogen production was lower as compared to HBT-25 (peak value 21.55 parts per million (ppm) ± 29.54 SD vs 99.43 ppm ± 40.01 SD; P < 0.001). Symptoms were present in only 13 patients. The absence of symptoms during the high-dose test has a high negative predictive value (0.84) for a negative low-dose test. The presence of symptoms during the first test was not useful for predicting a positive low-dose test (positive predictive value 0.06-0.31). CONCLUSION: Most patients with a positive HBT-25 normally absorb a lower dose of lactose and a strict lactose restriction on the basis of a “standard” HBT is, in most instances, unnecessary. Thus, the 25 g lactose tolerance test should probably be substituted by the 12.5 g test in the diagnosis of LI, and in providing dietary guidelines to patients with suspected lactose malabsorption/intolerance. PMID:18985811

Hydrogen breath test for the diagnosis of lactose intolerance, is the routine sugar load the best one?

PubMed

Argnani, Fiorenza; Di Camillo, Mauro; Marinaro, Vanessa; Foglietta, Tiziana; Avallone, Veronica; Cannella, Carlo; Vernia, Piero

2008-10-28

To evaluate the prevalence of lactose intolerance (LI) following a load of 12.5 g in patients diagnosed as high-grade malabsorbers using the hydrogen breath test (HBT)-25. Ninety patients showing high-grade malabsorption at HBT-25 were submitted to a second HBT with a lactose load of 12.5 g. Peak hydrogen production, area under the curve of hydrogen excretion and occurrence of symptoms were recorded. Only 16 patients (17.77%) with positive HBT-25 proved positive at HBT-12.5. Hydrogen production was lower as compared to HBT-25 (peak value 21.55 parts per million (ppm) +/- 29.54 SD vs 99.43 ppm +/- 40.01 SD; P < 0.001). Symptoms were present in only 13 patients. The absence of symptoms during the high-dose test has a high negative predictive value (0.84) for a negative low-dose test. The presence of symptoms during the first test was not useful for predicting a positive low-dose test (positive predictive value 0.06-0.31). Most patients with a positive HBT-25 normally absorb a lower dose of lactose and a strict lactose restriction on the basis of a "standard" HBT is, in most instances, unnecessary. Thus, the 25 g lactose tolerance test should probably be substituted by the 12.5 g test in the diagnosis of LI, and in providing dietary guidelines to patients with suspected lactose malabsorption/intolerance.

Application of reflectance colorimeter measurements and infrared spectroscopy methods to rapid and nondestructive evaluation of carotenoids content in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.).

PubMed

Ruiz, David; Reich, Maryse; Bureau, Sylvie; Renard, Catherine M G C; Audergon, Jean-Marc

2008-07-09

The importance of carotenoid content in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) is recognized not only because of the color that they impart but also because of their protective activity against human diseases. Current methods to assess carotenoid content are time-consuming, expensive, and destructive. In this work, the application of rapid and nondestructive methods such as colorimeter measurements and infrared spectroscopy has been evaluated for carotenoid determination in apricot. Forty apricot genotypes covering a wide range of peel and flesh colors have been analyzed. Color measurements on the skin and flesh ( L*, a*, b*, hue, chroma, and a*/ b* ratio) as well as Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy (FT-NIR) on intact fruits and Fourier transform mid-infrared spectroscopy (FT-MIR) on ground flesh were correlated with the carotenoid content measured by high-performance liquid chromatography. A high variability in color values and carotenoid content was observed. Partial least squares regression analyses between beta-carotene content and provitamin A activity and color measurements showed a high fit in peel, flesh, and edible apricot portion (R(2) ranged from 0.81 to 0.91) and low prediction error. Regression equations were developed for predicting carotenoid content by using color values, which appeared as a simple, rapid, reliable, and nondestructive method. However, FT-NIR and FT-MIR models showed very low R(2) values and very high prediction errors for carotenoid content.

The Accuracy of Serum Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 for Predicting Hemorrhagic Transformation After Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Lu; Wei, Chenchen; Deng, Linghui; Wang, Ziqiong; Song, Mengyuan; Xiong, Yao; Liu, Ming

2018-06-01

Hemorrhagic transformation is a serious complication of acute ischemic stroke, which may cause detrimental outcomes and the delayed use of anticoagulation therapy. Early predicting and identifying the patients at high risk of hemorrhagic transformation before clinical deterioration occurrence become a research priority. To study the value of plasma matrix metalloproteinase-9 predicting hemorrhagic transformation after ischemic stroke. We searched PubMed, Ovid, Cochrane Library, and other 2 Chinese databases to identify literatures published up to September 2017 and performed meta-analysis by STATA (version 12.0, StataCorp LP, College Station, TX). Twelve studies incorporating 1492 participants were included and 7 studies were included in the quantitative statistical analysis. The pooled sensitivity was 85% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75%, 91%) and the pooled specificity was 79% (95% CI: 67%, 87%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .89 (95% CI .86, .91). Significant heterogeneity for all estimates value existed (all the P value < .05 and I 2  > 50%). There is no threshold effect with P value greater than .05 of the correlation coefficient. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis showed cut-off value and hemorrhagic subtype contributed to heterogeneity. Deeks' funnel plot indicated no significant publication bias for 7 quantitative analysis studies. Matrix metalloproteinase-9 has high predictive value for hemorrhagic transformation after acute ischemic stroke. It may be useful to test matrix metalloproteinase-9 to exclude patients at low risk of hemorrhage for precise treatment in the future clinical work. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measurement of photoemission and secondary emission from laboratory dust grains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelton, Robert C.; Yadlowsky, Edward J.; Settersten, Thomas B.; Spanjers, Gregory G.; Moschella, John J.

1995-01-01

The overall goal of this project is experimentally determine the emission properties of dust grains in order to provide theorists and modelers with an accurate data base to use in codes that predict the charging of grains in various plasma environments encountered in the magnetospheres of the planets. In general these modelers use values which have been measured on planar, bulk samples of the materials in question. The large enhancements expected due to the small size of grains can have a dramatic impact upon the predictions and the ultimate utility of these predictions. The first experimental measurement of energy resolved profiles of the secondary electron emission coefficient, 6, of sub-micron diameter particles has been accomplished. Bismuth particles in the size range of .022 to .165 micrometers were generated in a moderate pressure vacuum oven (average size is a function of oven temperature and pressure) and introduced into a high vacuum chamber where they interacted with a high energy electron beam (0.4 to 20 keV). Large enhancements in emission were observed with a peak value, delta(sub max) = 4. 5 measured for the ensemble of particles with a mean size of .022 micrometers. This is in contrast to the published value, delta(sub max) = 1.2, for bulk bismuth. The observed profiles are in general agreement with recent theoretical predictions made by Chow et al. at UCSD.

Predicting coronary artery disease using different artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Colak, M Cengiz; Colak, Cemil; Kocatürk, Hasan; Sağiroğlu, Seref; Barutçu, Irfan

2008-08-01

Eight different learning algorithms used for creating artificial neural network (ANN) models and the different ANN models in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) are introduced. This work was carried out as a retrospective case-control study. Overall, 124 consecutive patients who had been diagnosed with CAD by coronary angiography (at least 1 coronary stenosis > 50% in major epicardial arteries) were enrolled in the work. Angiographically, the 113 people (group 2) with normal coronary arteries were taken as control subjects. Multi-layered perceptrons ANN architecture were applied. The ANN models trained with different learning algorithms were performed in 237 records, divided into training (n=171) and testing (n=66) data sets. The performance of prediction was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values based on standard definitions. The results have demonstrated that ANN models trained with eight different learning algorithms are promising because of high (greater than 71%) sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values in the prediction of CAD. Accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values varied between 83.63%-100%, 86.46%-100% and 74.67%-100% for training, respectively. For testing, the values were more than 71% for sensitivity, 76% for specificity and 81% for accuracy. It may be proposed that the use of different learning algorithms other than backpropagation and larger sample sizes can improve the performance of prediction. The proposed ANN models trained with these learning algorithms could be used a promising approach for predicting CAD without the need for invasive diagnostic methods and could help in the prognostic clinical decision.

Predictive value of work-related self-efficacy change on RTW for employees with common mental disorders.

PubMed

Lagerveld, Suzanne E; Brenninkmeijer, Veerle; Blonk, Roland W B; Twisk, Jos; Schaufeli, Wilmar B

2017-05-01

To improve interventions that aim to promote return to work (RTW) of workers with common mental disorders (CMD), insight into modifiable predictors of RTW is needed. This study tested the predictive value of self-efficacy change for RTW in addition to preintervention levels of self-efficacy. RTW self-efficacy was measured 5 times within 9 months among 168 clients of a mental healthcare organisation who were on sick leave due to CMD. Self-efficacy parameters were modelled with multilevel analyses and added as predictors into a Cox regression analysis. Results showed that both high baseline self-efficacy and self-efficacy increase until full RTW were predictive of a shorter duration until full RTW. Both self-efficacy parameters remained significant predictors of RTW when controlled for several relevant covariates and within subgroups of employees with either high or low preintervention self-efficacy levels. This is the first study that demonstrated the prognostic value of self-efficacy change, over and above the influence of psychological symptoms, for RTW among employees with CMD. By showing that RTW self-efficacy increase predicted a shorter duration until full RTW, this study points to the relevance of enhancing RTW self-efficacy in occupational or mental health interventions for employees with CMD. Efforts to improve self-efficacy appear valuable both for people with relatively low and high baseline self-efficacy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Application of empirical Bayes methods to predict the rate of decline in ERG at the individual level among patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

PubMed

Qiu, Weiliang; Sandberg, Michael A; Rosner, Bernard

2018-05-31

Retinitis pigmentosa is one of the most common forms of inherited retinal degeneration. The electroretinogram (ERG) can be used to determine the severity of retinitis pigmentosa-the lower the ERG amplitude, the more severe the disease is. In practice for career, lifestyle, and treatment counseling, it is of interest to predict the ERG amplitude of a patient at a future time. One approach is prediction based on the average rate of decline for individual patients. However, there is considerable variation both in initial amplitude and in rate of decline. In this article, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach to incorporate the variations in initial amplitude and rate of decline for the prediction of ERG amplitude at the individual level. We applied the EB method to a collection of ERGs from 898 patients with 3 or more visits over 5 or more years of follow-up tested in the Berman-Gund Laboratory and observed that the predicted values at the last (kth) visit obtained by using the proposed method based on data for the first k-1 visits are highly correlated with the observed values at the kth visit (Spearman correlation =0.93) and have a higher correlation with the observed values than those obtained based on either the population average decline rate or those obtained based on the individual decline rate. The mean square errors for predicted values obtained by the EB method are also smaller than those predicted by the other methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis.

PubMed

Miquel-Cases, Anna; Retèl, Valesca P; van Harten, Wim H; Steuten, Lotte M G

2016-06-01

To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis. A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069). The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000). Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials.

PubMed

Cai, Zhaohui; Bresell, Anders; Steinberg, Mark H; Silberg, Debra G; Furlong, Stephen T

2012-01-01

The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline) information. Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results. Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy's law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests. It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline) data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones.

Predicting the Types of Ion Channel-Targeted Conotoxins Based on AVC-SVM Model.

PubMed

Xianfang, Wang; Junmei, Wang; Xiaolei, Wang; Yue, Zhang

2017-01-01

The conotoxin proteins are disulfide-rich small peptides. Predicting the types of ion channel-targeted conotoxins has great value in the treatment of chronic diseases, epilepsy, and cardiovascular diseases. To solve the problem of information redundancy existing when using current methods, a new model is presented to predict the types of ion channel-targeted conotoxins based on AVC (Analysis of Variance and Correlation) and SVM (Support Vector Machine). First, the F value is used to measure the significance level of the feature for the result, and the attribute with smaller F value is filtered by rough selection. Secondly, redundancy degree is calculated by Pearson Correlation Coefficient. And the threshold is set to filter attributes with weak independence to get the result of the refinement. Finally, SVM is used to predict the types of ion channel-targeted conotoxins. The experimental results show the proposed AVC-SVM model reaches an overall accuracy of 91.98%, an average accuracy of 92.17%, and the total number of parameters of 68. The proposed model provides highly useful information for further experimental research. The prediction model will be accessed free of charge at our web server.

Predicting the Types of Ion Channel-Targeted Conotoxins Based on AVC-SVM Model

PubMed Central

Xiaolei, Wang

2017-01-01

The conotoxin proteins are disulfide-rich small peptides. Predicting the types of ion channel-targeted conotoxins has great value in the treatment of chronic diseases, epilepsy, and cardiovascular diseases. To solve the problem of information redundancy existing when using current methods, a new model is presented to predict the types of ion channel-targeted conotoxins based on AVC (Analysis of Variance and Correlation) and SVM (Support Vector Machine). First, the F value is used to measure the significance level of the feature for the result, and the attribute with smaller F value is filtered by rough selection. Secondly, redundancy degree is calculated by Pearson Correlation Coefficient. And the threshold is set to filter attributes with weak independence to get the result of the refinement. Finally, SVM is used to predict the types of ion channel-targeted conotoxins. The experimental results show the proposed AVC-SVM model reaches an overall accuracy of 91.98%, an average accuracy of 92.17%, and the total number of parameters of 68. The proposed model provides highly useful information for further experimental research. The prediction model will be accessed free of charge at our web server. PMID:28497044

Applying new Magee equations for predicting the Oncotype Dx recurrence score.

PubMed

Sughayer, Maher; Alaaraj, Rolla; Alsughayer, Ahmad

2018-04-24

Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in women. Oncotype Dx is a multi-gene assay frequently used to predict the recurrence risk for estrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer, with values < 18 considered low risk; ≥ 18 and ≤ 30, intermediate risk; and > 30, high risk. Patients at a high risk for recurrence are more likely to benefit from chemotherapy treatment. In this study, clinicopathological parameters for 37 cases of early breast cancer with available Oncotype Dx results were used to estimate the recurrence score using the three new Magee equations. Correlation studies with Oncotype Dx results were performed. Applying the same cutoff points as Oncotype Dx, patients were categorized into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups according to their estimated recurrence scores. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) values between estimated and actual recurrence score were 0.73, 0.66, and 0.70 for Magee equations 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The concordance values between actual and estimated recurrence scores were 57.6%, 52.9%, and 57.6% for Magee equations 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Using standard pathologic measures and immunohistochemistry scores in these three linear Magee equations, most low and high recurrence risk cases can be predicted with a strong positive correlation coefficient, high concordance and negligible two-step discordance. Magee equations are user-friendly and can be used to predict the recurrence score in early breast cancer cases.

Diagnostic accuracy of liver fibrosis based on red cell distribution width (RDW) to platelet ratio with fibroscan in chronic hepatitis B

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, J.; Jones, F.

2018-03-01

Red cell Distribution Width (RDW) and platelet ratio (RPR) can predict liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B with relatively high accuracy. RPR was superior to other non-invasive methods to predict liver fibrosis, such as AST and ALT ratio, AST and platelet ratio Index and FIB-4. The aim of this study was to assess diagnostic accuracy liver fibrosis by using RDW and platelets ratio in chronic hepatitis B patients based on compared with Fibroscan. This cross-sectional study was conducted at Adam Malik Hospital from January-June 2015. We examine 34 patients hepatitis B chronic, screen RDW, platelet, and fibroscan. Data were statistically analyzed. The result RPR with ROC procedure has an accuracy of 72.3% (95% CI: 84.1% - 97%). In this study, the RPR had a moderate ability to predict fibrosis degree (p = 0.029 with AUC> 70%). The cutoff value RPR was 0.0591, sensitivity and spesificity were 71.4% and 60%, Positive Prediction Value (PPV) was 55.6% and Negative Predictions Value (NPV) was 75%, positive likelihood ratio was 1.79 and negative likelihood ratio was 0.48. RPR have the ability to predict the degree of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients with moderate accuracy.

Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence and antisocial behaviour in 73 samples involving 24 827 people: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P; Doll, Helen; Grann, Martin

2012-01-01

Objective To investigate the predictive validity of tools commonly used to assess the risk of violence, sexual, and criminal behaviour. Design Systematic review and tabular meta-analysis of replication studies following PRISMA guidelines. Data sources PsycINFO, Embase, Medline, and United States Criminal Justice Reference Service Abstracts. Review methods We included replication studies from 1 January 1995 to 1 January 2011 if they provided contingency data for the offending outcome that the tools were designed to predict. We calculated the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, the number needed to detain to prevent one offence, as well as a novel performance indicator—the number safely discharged. We investigated potential sources of heterogeneity using metaregression and subgroup analyses. Results Risk assessments were conducted on 73 samples comprising 24 847 participants from 13 countries, of whom 5879 (23.7%) offended over an average of 49.6 months. When used to predict violent offending, risk assessment tools produced low to moderate positive predictive values (median 41%, interquartile range 27-60%) and higher negative predictive values (91%, 81-95%), and a corresponding median number needed to detain of 2 (2-4) and number safely discharged of 10 (4-18). Instruments designed to predict violent offending performed better than those aimed at predicting sexual or general crime. Conclusions Although risk assessment tools are widely used in clinical and criminal justice settings, their predictive accuracy varies depending on how they are used. They seem to identify low risk individuals with high levels of accuracy, but their use as sole determinants of detention, sentencing, and release is not supported by the current evidence. Further research is needed to examine their contribution to treatment and management. PMID:22833604

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting Benzo[k]Fluoranthene Human Health Hazards

EPA Science Inventory

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values and risk screening values. We aim to use computa...

Effect of CTA Tube Current on Spot Sign Detection and Accuracy for Prediction of Intracerebral Hemorrhage Expansion.

PubMed

Morotti, A; Romero, J M; Jessel, M J; Brouwers, H B; Gupta, R; Schwab, K; Vashkevich, A; Ayres, A; Anderson, C D; Gurol, M E; Viswanathan, A; Greenberg, S M; Rosand, J; Goldstein, J N

2016-05-19

Reduction of CT tube current is an effective strategy to minimize radiation load. However, tube current is also a major determinant of image quality. We investigated the impact of CTA tube current on spot sign detection and diagnostic performance for intracerebral hemorrhage expansion. We retrospectively analyzed a prospectively collected cohort of consecutive patients with primary intracerebral hemorrhage from January 2001 to April 2015 who underwent CTA. The study population was divided into 2 groups according to the median CTA tube current level: low current (<350 mA) and high current (≥350 mA). CTA first-pass readings for spot sign presence were independently analyzed by 2 readers. Baseline and follow-up hematoma volumes were assessed by semiautomated computer-assisted volumetric analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy of spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion were calculated. This study included 709 patients (288 and 421 in the low- and high-current groups, respectively). A higher proportion of low-current scans identified at least 1 spot sign (20.8% versus 14.7%, P = .034), but hematoma expansion frequency was similar in the 2 groups (18.4% versus 16.2%, P = .434). Sensitivity and positive and negative predictive values were not significantly different between the 2 groups. Conversely, high-current scans showed superior specificity (91% versus 84%, P = .015) and overall accuracy (84% versus 77%, P = .038). CTA obtained at high levels of tube current showed better diagnostic accuracy for prediction of hematoma expansion by using spot sign. These findings may have implications for future studies using the CTA spot sign to predict hematoma expansion for clinical trials. © 2016 American Society of Neuroradiology.

Using the information value method in a geographic information system and remote sensing for malaria mapping: a case study from India.

PubMed

Rai, Praveen Kumar; Nathawat, Mahendra Singh; Rai, Shalini

2013-01-01

This paper explores the scope of malaria-susceptibility modelling to predict malaria occurrence in an area. An attempt has been made in Varanasi district, India, to evaluate the status of malaria disease and to develop a model by which malaria-prone zones could be predicted using five classes of relative malaria susceptibility, i.e.very low, low, moderate, high and very high categories. The information value (Info Val) method was used to assess malaria occurrence and various time-were used as the independent variables. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to investigate associations between such variables and distribution of different mosquitoes responsible for malaria transmission. Accurate prediction of risk depends on a number of variables, such as land use, NDVI, climatic factors, population, distance to health centres, ponds, streams and roads etc., all of which have an influence on malaria transmission or reporting. Climatic factors, particularly rainfall, temperature and relative humidity, are known to have a major influence on the biology of mosquitoes. To produce a malaria-susceptibility map using this method, weightings are calculated for various classes in each group. The groups are then superimposed to prepare a Malaria Susceptibility Index (MSI) map. We found that 3.87% of the malaria cases were found in areas with a low malaria-susceptibility level predicted from the model, whereas 39.86% and 26.29% of malaria cases were found in predicted high and very high susceptibility level areas, respectively. Malaria susceptibility modelled using a GIS may have a role in predicting the risks of malaria and enable public health interventions to be better targeted.

Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Wang, Jianming; Wu, Zhuchao; Wu, Weihua; Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Xu, Fei; Tong, Shilu; Shen, Hongbing

2017-10-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)52 associated with the average temperature at lag of 1 week appeared to be the best model (R 2 = 0.936, BIC = 8.465), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. In the validation of the constructed model, the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well between 2014 and 2015. There was a high agreement rate between the predicted values and the observed values (sensitivity 80%, specificity 96.63%). This study suggests that the SARIMA model with average temperature could be used as an important tool for early detection and prediction of HFMD outbreaks in Nanjing, China.

The predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging of retinoblastoma for the likelihood of high-risk pathologic features.

PubMed

Hiasat, Jamila G; Saleh, Alaa; Al-Hussaini, Maysa; Al Nawaiseh, Ibrahim; Mehyar, Mustafa; Qandeel, Monther; Mohammad, Mona; Deebajah, Rasha; Sultan, Iyad; Jaradat, Imad; Mansour, Asem; Yousef, Yacoub A

2018-06-01

To evaluate the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging in retinoblastoma for the likelihood of high-risk pathologic features. A retrospective study of 64 eyes enucleated from 60 retinoblastoma patients. Contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging was performed before enucleation. Main outcome measures included demographics, laterality, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of magnetic resonance imaging in detecting high-risk pathologic features. Optic nerve invasion and choroidal invasion were seen microscopically in 34 (53%) and 28 (44%) eyes, respectively, while they were detected in magnetic resonance imaging in 22 (34%) and 15 (23%) eyes, respectively. The accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging in detecting prelaminar invasion was 77% (sensitivity 89%, specificity 98%), 56% for laminar invasion (sensitivity 27%, specificity 94%), 84% for postlaminar invasion (sensitivity 42%, specificity 98%), and 100% for optic cut edge invasion (sensitivity100%, specificity 100%). The accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging in detecting focal choroidal invasion was 48% (sensitivity 33%, specificity 97%), and 84% for massive choroidal invasion (sensitivity 53%, specificity 98%), and the accuracy in detecting extrascleral extension was 96% (sensitivity 67%, specificity 98%). Magnetic resonance imaging should not be the only method to stratify patients at high risk from those who are not, eventhough it can predict with high accuracy extensive postlaminar optic nerve invasion, massive choroidal invasion, and extrascleral tumor extension.

Diagnostic accuracy of high-risk HPV genotyping in women with high-grade cervical lesions: evidence for improving the cervical cancer screening strategy in China.

PubMed

Xu, Huihui; Lin, Aifen; Shao, Xiujuan; Shi, Weiwu; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Weihua

2016-12-13

Currently, clinical data for primary HPV screening alone are lacking in China. Here, we evaluate cervical cancer screening with primary HPV genotyping, as well as possible future screening strategy. Overall, high-risk HPV (hrHPV) prevalence was 18.2% among hospital-based population in Taizhou area. For cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse (CIN2+), the sensitivity of primary hrHPV genotyping strategy and current cervical cancer screening strategy were 93.5%, and 71.1%, respectively; whereas the specificity was 17.5%, and 62.4%, respectively. Current cervical screening strategy had slightly higher positive predictive values (28.4%) for CIN2+ than hrHPV genotyping strategy (21.9%), whereas primary hrHPV genotyping strategy demonstrated higher negative predictive values (94.7%) than current cervical screening strategy (91.1%). Compared to HPV35/39/45/51/56/59/66/68 genotypes, the odds ratios (OR) for CIN2+ in HPV16/18/31/33/52/58 infection women were 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-4.1). Primary hrHPV genotyping strategy provides a better predictive value than HPV16/18 genotyping alone in guiding the clinical management of the current cervical cancer screening. HPV testing without adjunctive cytology may be sufficiently sensitive for primary cervical cancer screening.

Preschool children's vision screening in New Zealand: a retrospective evaluation of referral accuracy

PubMed Central

Langeslag-Smith, Miriam A; Vandal, Alain C; Briane, Vincent; Thompson, Benjamin; Anstice, Nicola S

2015-01-01

Objectives To assess the accuracy of preschool vision screening in a large, ethnically diverse, urban population in South Auckland, New Zealand. Design Retrospective longitudinal study. Methods B4 School Check vision screening records (n=5572) were compared with hospital eye department data for children referred from screening due to impaired acuity in one or both eyes who attended a referral appointment (n=556). False positive screens were identified by comparing screening data from the eyes that failed screening with hospital data. Estimation of false negative screening rates relied on data from eyes that passed screening. Data were analysed using logistic regression modelling accounting for the high correlation between results for the two eyes of each child. Primary outcome measure Positive predictive value of the preschool vision screening programme. Results Screening produced high numbers of false positive referrals, resulting in poor positive predictive value (PPV=31%, 95% CI 26% to 38%). High estimated negative predictive value (NPV=92%, 95% CI 88% to 95%) suggested most children with a vision disorder were identified at screening. Relaxing the referral criteria for acuity from worse than 6/9 to worse than 6/12 improved PPV without adversely affecting NPV. Conclusions The B4 School Check generated numerous false positive referrals and consequently had a low PPV. There is scope for reducing costs by altering the visual acuity criterion for referral. PMID:26614622

Variation and Grey GM(1, 1) Prediction of Melting Peak Temperature of Polypropylene During Ultraviolet Radiation Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K.; Y Zhang, T.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, Z. R.

2017-12-01

Grey system theory regards uncertain system in which information is known partly and unknown partly as research object, extracts useful information from part known, and thereby revealing the potential variation rule of the system. In order to research the applicability of data-driven modelling method in melting peak temperature (T m) fitting and prediction of polypropylene (PP) during ultraviolet radiation aging, the T m of homo-polypropylene after different ultraviolet radiation exposure time investigated by differential scanning calorimeter was fitted and predicted by grey GM(1, 1) model based on grey system theory. The results show that the T m of PP declines with the prolong of aging time, and fitting and prediction equation obtained by grey GM(1, 1) model is T m = 166.567472exp(-0.00012t). Fitting effect of the above equation is excellent and the maximum relative error between prediction value and actual value of T m is 0.32%. Grey system theory needs less original data, has high prediction accuracy, and can be used to predict aging behaviour of PP.

Predicting lower body power from vertical jump prediction equations for loaded jump squats at different intensities in men and women.

PubMed

Wright, Glenn A; Pustina, Andrew A; Mikat, Richard P; Kernozek, Thomas W

2012-03-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of estimating peak lower body power from a maximal jump squat using 3 different vertical jump prediction equations. Sixty physically active college students (30 men, 30 women) performed jump squats with a weighted bar's applied load of 20, 40, and 60% of body mass across the shoulders. Each jump squat was simultaneously monitored using a force plate and a contact mat. Peak power (PP) was calculated using vertical ground reaction force from the force plate data. Commonly used equations requiring body mass and vertical jump height to estimate PP were applied such that the system mass (mass of body + applied load) was substituted for body mass. Jump height was determined from flight time as measured with a contact mat during a maximal jump squat. Estimations of PP (PP(est)) for each load and for each prediction equation were compared with criterion PP values from a force plate (PP(FP)). The PP(est) values had high test-retest reliability and were strongly correlated to PP(FP) in both men and women at all relative loads. However, only the Harman equation accurately predicted PP(FP) at all relative loads. It can therefore be concluded that the Harman equation may be used to estimate PP of a loaded jump squat knowing the system mass and peak jump height when more precise (and expensive) measurement equipment is unavailable. Further, high reliability and correlation with criterion values suggest that serial assessment of power production across training periods could be used for relative assessment of change by either of the prediction equations used in this study.

Longer-Term Investigation of the Value of 18F-FDG-PET and Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Predicting the Conversion of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease: A Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Inui, Yoshitaka; Ito, Kengo; Kato, Takashi

2017-01-01

The value of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG-PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting conversion of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in longer-term is unclear. To evaluate longer-term prediction of MCI to AD conversion using 18F-FDG-PET and MRI in a multicenter study. One-hundred and fourteen patients with MCI were followed for 5 years. They underwent clinical and neuropsychological examinations, 18F-FDG-PET, and MRI at baseline. PET images were visually classified into predefined dementia patterns. PET scores were calculated as a semi quantitative index. For structural MRI, z-scores in medial temporal area were calculated by automated volume-based morphometry (VBM). Overall, 72% patients with amnestic MCI progressed to AD during the 5-year follow-up. The diagnostic accuracy of PET scores over 5 years was 60% with 53% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Visual interpretation of PET images predicted conversion to AD with an overall 82% diagnostic accuracy, 94% sensitivity, and 53% specificity. The accuracy of VBM analysis presented little fluctuation through 5 years and it was highest (73%) at the 5-year follow-up, with 79% sensitivity and 63% specificity. The best performance (87.9% diagnostic accuracy, 89.8% sensitivity, and 82.4% specificity) was with a combination identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis that included PET visual interpretation, educational level, and neuropsychological tests as predictors. 18F-FDG-PET visual assessment showed high performance for predicting conversion to AD from MCI, particularly in combination with neuropsychological tests. PET scores showed high diagnostic specificity. Structural MRI focused on the medial temporal area showed stable predictive value throughout the 5-year course.

Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values, and Accuracy of Three Diagnostic Tests to Predict Inferior Alveolar Nerve Blockade Failure in Symptomatic Irreversible Pulpitis

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Wong, Laura; Noguera-González, Danny; Esparza-Villalpando, Vicente; Montero-Aguilar, Mauricio

2017-01-01

Introduction The inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) is the most common anesthetic technique used on mandibular teeth during root canal treatment. Its success in the presence of preoperative inflammation is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of three diagnostic tests used to predict IANB failure in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP). Methodology A cross-sectional study was carried out on the mandibular molars of 53 patients with SIP. All patients received a single cartridge of mepivacaine 2% with 1 : 100000 epinephrine using the IANB technique. Three diagnostic clinical tests were performed to detect anesthetic failure. Anesthetic failure was defined as a positive painful response to any of the three tests. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, and ROC curves were calculated and compared and significant differences were analyzed. Results IANB failure was determined in 71.7% of the patients. The sensitivity scores for the three tests (lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access) were 0.03, 0.35, and 0.55, respectively, and the specificity score was determined as 1 for all of the tests. Clinically, none of the evaluated tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy (0.30, 0.53, and 0.68 for lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access, resp.). A comparison of the areas under the curve in the ROC analyses showed statistically significant differences between the three tests (p < 0.05). Conclusion None of the analyzed tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy to be considered a reliable diagnostic tool for the prediction of anesthetic failure. PMID:28694714

Early improvement as a resilience signal predicting later remission to antidepressant treatment in patients with Major Depressive Disorder: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wagner, Stefanie; Engel, Alice; Engelmann, Jan; Herzog, David; Dreimüller, Nadine; Müller, Marianne B; Tadić, André; Lieb, Klaus

2017-11-01

Early improvement of depressive symptoms during the first two weeks of antidepressant treatment has been discussed to be a resilience signal predicting a later positive treatment outcome in patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). However, the predictive value of early improvement varies between studies, and the use of different antidepressants may explain heterogeneous results. The objective of this review was to assess the predictive value of early improvement on later response and remission and to identify antidepressants with the highest chance of early improvement. We included 17 randomized controlled trials investigating early improvement in 14,779 adult patients with MDD comparing monotherapy with an antidepressant against placebo or another antidepressant drug. 62% (range: 35-85%) of patients treated with an antidepressant and 47% (range: 21-69%) with placebo were early improver, defined as a >20%/25% symptom reduction after two weeks of treatment. Early improvement predicted response and remission after 5-12 weeks of treatment with high sensitivity (85%; 95%-CI: 84.3 to 85.7) and low to moderate specificity (54%; 95%-CI: 53.1 to 54.9). Early improver had a 8.37 fold (6.97-10.05) higher likelihood to become responder and a 6.38 fold (5.07-8.02) higher likelihood to be remitter at endpoint than non-improver. The highest early improver rates were achieved in patients treated with mirtazapine or a tricyclic antidepressant. This finding of a high predictive value of early improvement on treatment outcome may be important for treatment decisions in the early course of antidepressant treatment. Further studies should test the efficacy of such early treatment decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based prediction of myelosuppression and recovery based on frequent neutrophil monitoring.

PubMed

Netterberg, Ida; Nielsen, Elisabet I; Friberg, Lena E; Karlsson, Mats O

2017-08-01

To investigate whether a more frequent monitoring of the absolute neutrophil counts (ANC) during myelosuppressive chemotherapy, together with model-based predictions, can improve therapy management, compared to the limited clinical monitoring typically applied today. Daily ANC in chemotherapy-treated cancer patients were simulated from a previously published population model describing docetaxel-induced myelosuppression. The simulated values were used to generate predictions of the individual ANC time-courses, given the myelosuppression model. The accuracy of the predicted ANC was evaluated under a range of conditions with reduced amount of ANC measurements. The predictions were most accurate when more data were available for generating the predictions and when making short forecasts. The inaccuracy of ANC predictions was highest around nadir, although a high sensitivity (≥90%) was demonstrated to forecast Grade 4 neutropenia before it occurred. The time for a patient to recover to baseline could be well forecasted 6 days (±1 day) before the typical value occurred on day 17. Daily monitoring of the ANC, together with model-based predictions, could improve anticancer drug treatment by identifying patients at risk for severe neutropenia and predicting when the next cycle could be initiated.

Non-equilibrium thermionic electron emission for metals at high temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domenech-Garret, J. L.; Tierno, S. P.; Conde, L.

2015-08-01

Stationary thermionic electron emission currents from heated metals are compared against an analytical expression derived using a non-equilibrium quantum kappa energy distribution for the electrons. The latter depends on the temperature decreasing parameter κ ( T ) , which decreases with increasing temperature and can be estimated from raw experimental data and characterizes the departure of the electron energy spectrum from equilibrium Fermi-Dirac statistics. The calculations accurately predict the measured thermionic emission currents for both high and moderate temperature ranges. The Richardson-Dushman law governs electron emission for large values of kappa or equivalently, moderate metal temperatures. The high energy tail in the electron energy distribution function that develops at higher temperatures or lower kappa values increases the emission currents well over the predictions of the classical expression. This also permits the quantitative estimation of the departure of the metal electrons from the equilibrium Fermi-Dirac statistics.

The extrudate swell of HDPE: Rheological effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konaganti, Vinod Kumar; Ansari, Mahmoud; Mitsoulis, Evan; Hatzikiriakos, Savvas G.

2017-05-01

The extrudate swell of an industrial grade high molecular weight high-density polyethylene (HDPE) in capillary dies is studied experimentally and numerically using the integral K-BKZ constitutive model. The non-linear viscoelastic flow properties of the polymer resin are studied for a broad range of large step shear strains and high shear rates using the cone partitioned plate (CPP) geometry of the stress/strain controlled rotational rheometer. This allowed the determination of the rheological parameters accurately, in particular the damping function, which is proven to be the most important in simulating transient flows such as extrudate swell. A series of simulations performed using the integral K-BKZ Wagner model with different values of the Wagner exponent n, ranging from n=0.15 to 0.5, demonstrates that the extrudate swell predictions are extremely sensitive to the Wagner damping function exponent. Using the correct n-value resulted in extrudate swell predictions that are in excellent agreement with experimental measurements.

A non-LTE model for the Jovian methane infrared emissions at high spectral resolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halthore, Rangasayi N.; Allen, J. E., Jr.; Decola, Philip L.

1994-01-01

High resolution spectra of Jupiter in the 3.3 micrometer region have so far failed to reveal either the continuum or the line emissions that can be unambiguously attributed to the nu(sub 3) band of methane (Drossart et al. 1993; Kim et al. 1991). Nu(sub 3) line intensities predicted with the help of two simple non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) models -- a two-level model and a three-level model, using experimentally determined relaxation coefficients, are shown to be one to three orders of magnitude respectively below the 3-sigma noise level of these observations. Predicted nu(sub 4) emission intensities are consistent with observed values. If the methane mixing ratio below the homopause is assumed as 2 x 10(exp -3), a value of about 300 K is derived as an upper limit to the temperature of the high stratosphere at microbar levels.

Diagnostic value of 18F-FDG-PET/CT for the follow-up and restaging of soft tissue sarcomas in adults.

PubMed

Kassem, T W; Abdelaziz, O; Emad-Eldin, S

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of 2-[ 18 F] fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose ( 18 FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) ( 18 F-FDG-PET/CT) in the follow-up of adult patients with soft tissue sarcomas. We prospectively evaluated 37 consecutive patients with known soft tissue sarcoma with 18 F-FDG-PET/CT examination for suspected recurrence of disease. They were 21 men and 16 women with a mean age of 49.6±10.6 (SD) years (range, 34-75years). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of 18 F-FDG-PET/CT examination were calculated on a per patient basis. 18 F-FDG-PET/CT showed an overall diagnostic accuracy of 91.8%, sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 100%. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 100 and 70%, respectively. The 18 F-FDG-PET/CT interpretations were correct in 34/37 patients (91.8%). Incorrect interpretations occurred in three patients (8.1%). Reasons for false negative findings were low 18 F-FDG uptake of local recurrence in one patient and low 18 F-FDG uptake of subcentimetric inguinal lymph node metastases. 18 F-FDG-PET/CT has a high diagnostic value in the follow-up of patients with soft tissue sarcoma. Copyright © 2017 Editions françaises de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Endorsement of Social and Personal Values Predicts the Desirability of Men and Women as Long-Term Partners.

PubMed

Lopes, Guilherme S; Barbaro, Nicole; Sela, Yael; Jeffery, Austin J; Pham, Michael N; Shackelford, Todd K; Zeigler-Hill, Virgil

2017-01-01

A prospective romantic partner's desirability as a long-term partner may be affected by the values that he or she endorses. However, few studies have examined the effects of "values" on a person's desirability as a long-term partner. We hypothesized that individuals who endorse social values (vs. personal values) will be perceived as more desirable long-term partners (Hypothesis 1) and that the endorsement of social values will be especially desirable in a male (vs. female) long-term partner (Hypothesis 2). The current study employed a 2 (sex of prospective partner: male vs. female) × 2 (values of prospective partner: personal vs. social) × 2 (physical attractiveness of prospective partner: unattractive vs. highly attractive) mixed-model design. Participants were 339 undergraduates (174 men, 165 women), with ages varying between 18 and 33 years ( M = 19.9, SD = 3.6), and mostly in a romantic relationship (53.7%). Participants reported interest in a long-term relationship with prospective partners depicted in four scenarios (within subjects), each varying along the dimensions of values (personal vs. social) and physical attractiveness (unattractive vs. highly attractive). Individuals endorsing personal values (vs. social values) and men (vs. women) endorsing personal values were rated as less desirable as long-term partners. The current research adds to the partner preferences literature by demonstrating that an individual's ascribed values influence others' perceptions of desirability as a long-term partner and that these effects are consistently sex differentiated, as predicted by an evolutionary perspective on romantic partner preferences.

Charting the Eccles' expectancy-value model from mothers' beliefs in childhood to youths' activities in adolescence.

PubMed

Simpkins, Sandra D; Fredricks, Jennifer A; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

2012-07-01

The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This investigation focused on testing this model with mothers in sports, music, math, and reading over a 12-year period. Data were drawn from mother, youth, and teacher questionnaires collected as part of Childhood and Beyond Study (92% European American; N = 723). Mothers' beliefs in sports, music, and math positively predicted their behaviors in these areas 1 year later, which predicted youths' self-concepts of ability and values (i.e., their motivational beliefs) in these domains 1 year later. Adolescents' motivational beliefs predicted time spent in organized sport activities, playing music, and reading after school measured 4 years later as well as the number of math courses taken in high school. Furthermore, except in reading, mothers' behaviors mediated the relations between mothers' and youths' beliefs, and youths' beliefs mediated the relations between mothers' behaviors and youths' behaviors. Although there were mean-level differences in several indicators based on child gender, in most cases the relations among these indicators did not significantly vary by child gender. This study highlights the processes by which mothers' beliefs during their children's childhood can predict children's activities in adolescence.

Trajectories of Anxiety during Elementary-School Years and the Prediction of High School Noncompletion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duchesne, Stephane; Vitaro, Frank; Larose, Simon; Tremblay, Richard E.

2008-01-01

Previous research has provided mixed results regarding the effect of anxiety on academic achievement. Building on this body of research, the present longitudinal study pursued two goals. The first goal was to describe trajectories of anxiety during elementary-school years. The second goal was to determine the predictive value of these trajectories…

Simulation of CO2 Solubility in Polystyrene-b-Polybutadieneb-Polystyrene (SEBS) by artificial intelligence network (ANN) method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharudin, R. W.; AbdulBari Ali, S.; Zulkarnain, M.; Shukri, M. A.

2018-05-01

This study reports on the integration of Artificial Neural Network (ANNs) with experimental data in predicting the solubility of carbon dioxide (CO2) blowing agent in SEBS by generating highest possible value for Regression coefficient (R2). Basically, foaming of thermoplastic elastomer with CO2 is highly affected by the CO2 solubility. The ability of ANN in predicting interpolated data of CO2 solubility was investigated by comparing training results via different method of network training. Regards to the final prediction result for CO2 solubility by ANN, the prediction trend (output generate) was corroborated with the experimental results. The obtained result of different method of training showed the trend of output generated by Gradient Descent with Momentum & Adaptive LR (traingdx) required longer training time and required more accurate input to produce better output with final Regression Value of 0.88. However, it goes vice versa with Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) technique as it produced better output in quick detention time with final Regression Value of 0.91.

Industry Perspective on Contemporary Protein-Binding Methodologies: Considerations for Regulatory Drug-Drug Interaction and Related Guidelines on Highly Bound Drugs.

PubMed

Di, Li; Breen, Christopher; Chambers, Rob; Eckley, Sean T; Fricke, Robert; Ghosh, Avijit; Harradine, Paul; Kalvass, J Cory; Ho, Stacy; Lee, Caroline A; Marathe, Punit; Perkins, Everett J; Qian, Mark; Tse, Susanna; Yan, Zhengyin; Zamek-Gliszczynski, Maciej J

2017-12-01

Regulatory agencies have recently issued drug-drug interaction guidelines, which require determination of plasma protein binding (PPB). To err on the conservative side, the agencies recommend that a 0.01 lower limit of fraction unbound (f u ) be used for highly bound compounds (>99%), irrespective of the actual measured values. While this may avoid false negatives, the recommendation would likely result in a high rate of false positive predictions, resulting in unnecessary clinical studies and more stringent inclusion/exclusion criteria, which may add cost and time in delivery of new medicines to patients. In this perspective, we provide a review of current approaches to measure PPB, and important determinants in enabling the accuracy and precision in these measurements. The ability to measure f u is further illustrated by a cross-company data comparison of PPB for warfarin and itraconazole, demonstrating good concordance of the measured f u values. The data indicate that f u values of ≤0.01 may be determined accurately across laboratories when appropriate methods are used. These data, along with numerous other examples presented in the literature, support the use of experimentally measured f u values for drug-drug interaction predictions, rather than using the arbitrary cutoff value of 0.01 as recommended in current regulatory guidelines. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measurement and Modeling of Acoustic Fields in a Gel Phantom at High Intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canney, Michael S.; Bailey, Michael R.; Khokhlova, Vera A.; Crum, Lawrence A.

2006-05-01

The goal of this work was to compare measured and numerically predicted HIFU pressure waveforms in water and a tissue-mimicking phantom. Waveforms were measured at the focus of a 2-MHz HIFU transducer with a fiber optic hydrophone. The transducer was operated with acoustic powers ranging from 2W to 300W. A KZK-type equation was used for modeling the experimental conditions. Strongly asymmetric nonlinear waves with peak positive pressure up to 80 MPa and peak negative pressure up to 20 MPa were measured in water, while waves up to 50 MPa peak positive pressure and 15 MPa peak negative pressure were measured in tissue phantoms. The values of peak negative pressure corresponded well with numerical simulations and were significantly smaller than predicted by linear extrapolation from low-level measurements. The values of peak positive pressures differed only at high levels of excitation where bandwidth limitations of the hydrophone failed to fully capture the predicted sharp shock fronts.

Genetic relationships between carcass cut weights predicted from video image analysis and other performance traits in cattle.

PubMed

Pabiou, T; Fikse, W F; Amer, P R; Cromie, A R; Näsholm, A; Berry, D P

2012-09-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the genetic associations between a range of carcass-related traits including wholesale cut weights predicted from video image analysis (VIA) technology, and a range of pre-slaughter performance traits in commercial Irish cattle. Predicted carcass cut weights comprised of cut weights based on retail value: lower value cuts (LVC), medium value cuts (MVC), high value cuts (HVC) and very high value cuts (VHVC), as well as total meat, fat and bone weights. Four main sources of data were used in the genetic analyses: price data of live animals collected from livestock auctions, live-weight data and linear type collected from both commercial and pedigree farms as well as from livestock auctions and weanling quality recorded on-farm. Heritability of carcass cut weights ranged from 0.21 to 0.39. Genetic correlations between the cut traits and the other performance traits were estimated using a series of bivariate sire linear mixed models where carcass cut weights were phenotypically adjusted to a constant carcass weight. Strongest positive genetic correlations were obtained between predicted carcass cut weights and carcass value (min r g(MVC) = 0.35; max r(g(VHVC)) = 0.69), and animal price at both weaning (min r(g(MVC)) = 0.37; max r(g(VHVC)) = 0.66) and post weaning (min r(g(MVC)) = 0.50; max r(g(VHVC)) = 0.67). Moderate genetic correlations were obtained between carcass cut weights and calf price (min r g(HVC) = 0.34; max r g(LVC) = 0.45), weanling quality (min r(g(MVC)) = 0.12; max r (g(VHVC)) = 0.49), linear scores for muscularity at both weaning (hindquarter development: min r(g(MVC)) = -0.06; max r(g(VHVC)) = 0.46), post weaning (hindquarter development: min r(g(MVC)) = 0.23; max r(g(VHVC)) = 0.44). The genetic correlations between total meat weight were consistent with those observed with the predicted wholesale cut weights. Total fat and total bone weights were generally negatively correlated with carcass value, auction prices and weanling quality. Total bone weight was, however, positively correlated with skeletal scores at weaning and post weaning. These results indicate that some traits collected early in life are moderate-to-strongly correlated with carcass cut weights predicted from VIA technology. This information can be used to improve the accuracy of selection for carcass cut weights in national genetic evaluations.

Predicting liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer by diffusion-weighted imaging of apparent diffusion coefficient values

PubMed Central

Zheng, De-Xian; Meng, Shu-Chun; Liu, Qing-Jun; Li, Chuan-Ting; Shang, Xi-Dan; Zhu, Yu-Seng; Bai, Tian-Jun; Xu, Shi-Ming

2016-01-01

AIM: To determine if efficacy of chemotherapy on liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer can be predicted by apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI). METHODS: In total, 86 patients with liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer (156 metastatic lesions) diagnosed in our hospital were included in this study. The maximum diameters of these tumors were compared with each other before treatment, 2 wk after treatment, and 12 wk after treatment. Selected patients were classified as the effective group and the ineffective group, depending on the maximum diameter of the tumor after 12 wk of treatment; and the ADC values at different treatment times between the two groups were compared. Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the relationship between ADC value and tumor diameter. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to analyze the ADC values before treatment to predict the patient’s sensitivity and specificity degree of efficacy to the chemotherapy. RESULTS: There was no difference in age between the two groups and in maximum tumor diameter before treatment and 2 wk after treatment. However, after 12 wk of treatment, maximum tumor diameter in the effective group was significantly lower than that in the ineffective group (P < 0.05). Before treatment, ADC values in the ineffective group were significantly higher than those in the effective group (P < 0.05). There was no difference in ADC values between the effective and ineffective groups after 2 and 12 wk of treatment. However, ADC values were significantly higher after 2 and 12 wk of treatment compared to before treatment in the effective group (P < 0.05). Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that ADC value before treatment and the reduced percentage of the maximum tumor diameter after 12 wk of treatment were negatively correlated, while the increase in the percentage of the ADC value 12 wk after treatment and the decrease in the percentage of the maximum tumor diameter were significantly positively correlated. The results of the ROC curve showed that ADC value with a chemotherapy ineffective threshold value of 1.14 × 10-3 mm2/s before treatment had a sensitivity and specificity of 94.3% and 76.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: DWI ADC values can be used to predict the response of patients with liver metastasis of gastrointestinal tract cancer to chemotherapy with high sensitivity and relatively high specificity. PMID:26973399

Ability among adolescents for the metabolic syndrome to predict elevations in factors associated with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: data from the national health and nutrition examination survey 1999-2006.

PubMed

DeBoer, Mark D; Gurka, Matthew J

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare currently proposed sets of pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria for the ability to predict elevations in "surrogate" factors that are associated with metabolic syndrome and with future cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. These surrogate factors were fasting insulin, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and uric acid. Waist circumference (WC), blood pressure, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting glucose, fasting insulin, HbA1c, hsCRP, and uric acid measurements were obtained from 2,624 adolescent (12-18 years old) participants of the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. We identified children with metabolic syndrome as defined by six commonly used sets of pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria. We then defined elevations in the surrogate factors as values in the top 5% for the cohort and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for each set of metabolic syndrome criteria and for each surrogate factor. Current pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria exhibited variable sensitivity and specificity for surrogate predictions. Metabolic syndrome criteria had the highest sensitivity for predicting fasting insulin (40-70%), followed by uric acid (31-54%), hsCRP (13-31%), and HbA1c (7-21%). The criteria of de Ferranti (which includes children with WC >75(th) percentile, compared to all other sets including children with WC >90(th) percentile) exhibited the highest sensitivity for predicting each of the surrogates, with only modest decrease in specificity compared to the other sets of criteria. However, the de Ferranti criteria also exhibited the lowest PPV values. Conversely, the pediatric International Diabetes Federation criteria exhibited the lowest sensitivity and the highest specificity. Pediatric metabolic syndrome criteria exhibit moderate sensitivity for detecting elevations in surrogate factors associated with metabolic syndrome and with risk for future disease. Inclusion of children with more modestly elevated WC improved sensitivity.

Incorporation of the Time-Varying Postprandial Increase in Splanchnic Blood Flow into a PBPK Model to Predict the Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered High-Extraction Drugs.

PubMed

Rose, Rachel H; Turner, David B; Neuhoff, Sibylle; Jamei, Masoud

2017-07-01

Following a meal, a transient increase in splanchnic blood flow occurs that can result in increased exposure to orally administered high-extraction drugs. Typically, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have incorporated this increase in blood flow as a time-invariant fed/fasted ratio, but this approach is unable to explain the extent of increased drug exposure. A model for the time-varying increase in splanchnic blood flow following a moderate- to high-calorie meal (TV-Q Splanch ) was developed to describe the observed data for healthy individuals. This was integrated within a PBPK model and used to predict the contribution of increased splanchnic blood flow to the observed food effect for two orally administered high-extraction drugs, propranolol and ibrutinib. The model predicted geometric mean fed/fasted AUC and C max ratios of 1.24 and 1.29 for propranolol, which were within the range of published values (within 1.0-1.8-fold of values from eight clinical studies). For ibrutinib, the predicted geometric mean fed/fasted AUC and C max ratios were 2.0 and 1.84, respectively, which was within 1.1-fold of the reported fed/fasted AUC ratio but underestimated the reported C max ratio by up to 1.9-fold. For both drugs, the interindividual variability in fed/fasted AUC and C max ratios was underpredicted. This suggests that the postprandial change in splanchnic blood flow is a major mechanism of the food effect for propranolol and ibrutinib but is insufficient to fully explain the observations. The proposed model is anticipated to improve the prediction of food effect for high-extraction drugs, but should be considered with other mechanisms.

High gain signal averaged electrocardiogram combined with 24 hour monitoring in patients early after myocardial infarction for bedside prediction of arrhythmic events.

PubMed Central

Cripps, T; Bennett, E D; Camm, A J; Ward, D E

1988-01-01

The value of the high gain, signal averaged electrocardiogram combined with 24 hour electrocardiographic monitoring in the prediction of arrhythmic events was assessed in 159 patients in the first week after myocardial infarction. Eleven patients (7%) suffered arrhythmic events during a mean (SD) of 12 (6) months of follow up (range 2-22, median 13 months). The combination of high gain, signal averaged electrocardiography and 24 hour electrocardiographic monitoring was more accurate than either technique alone or than clinical information collected during admission in predicting these events. The combination identified a high risk group of 13 (8%) patients, with an arrhythmic event rate of 62% and a low risk group with an event rate of 2%. The combination of high gain, signal averaged electrocardiography and 24 hour electrocardiographic monitoring in the first week after myocardial infarction provides a rapid, cheap, and non-invasive bedside method for the prediction of arrhythmias. PMID:3179133

Low predictability of anthropometric indicators of obesity in metabolic syndrome (MS) risks among elderly women.

PubMed

Chu, Fu-Ling; Hsu, Chung-Huei; Jeng, Chii

2012-01-01

While diagnostic criteria for MS may vary depending on ethnicity, obesity remains a key risk factor in its development. In Taiwan, the incidence of obesity and MS among women has been increasing; however cut-off values for defining obesity for the diagnosis of MS among different groups of women have not been clearly established. The goal of this research was to examine the suitability of various anthropometric indicators of obesity in predicting the presence of MS criteria and to determine appropriate cut-off values of these indicators for women of different age and menstrual status. The sample was derived from the 2002 "Taiwan Three High Prevalence Survey" database. Women were divided into three groups based on age and menstrual status. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves was applied to the anthropometric indicators of obesity including, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), to ascertain its value in predicting MS. 2848 cases were included. It was found that most MS component values were worse with age and following menopause. Obesity indicators showed poor predictability for MS risks in post-menopausal women over 65 years, but good predictability in women under 65 years; our study revealed the following as ideal cut-off values for non-menopausal female: WHtR<0.49, WC<78 cm, WHR<0.79, BMI<24 kg/m(2); for menopausal women, WHtR<0.54, WC<83 cm, WHR<0.84, BMI<24.4 kg/m(2). It was concluded that obesity alone is not a reliable predictor of MS risks in women over the age of 65, and cut-off values for obesity indicators need to be further reduced in non-menopausal women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H

Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyomore » Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R{sup 2} between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R{sup 2} was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by the JSPS Core-to-Core Program(No. 23003) and Grant-in-aid from the JSPS Fellows.« less

Evaluation of prognostic and predictive value of microtubule associated protein tau in two independent cohorts

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Microtubule associated proteins (MAPs) endogenously regulate microtubule stabilization and have been reported as prognostic and predictive markers for taxane response. The microtubule stabilizer, MAP-tau, has shown conflicting results. We quantitatively assessed MAP-tau expression in two independent breast cancer cohorts to determine prognostic and predictive value of this biomarker. Methods MAP-tau expression was evaluated in the retrospective Yale University breast cancer cohort (n = 651) using tissue microarrays and also in the TAX 307 cohort, a clinical trial randomized for TAC versus FAC chemotherapy (n = 140), using conventional whole tissue sections. Expression was measured using the AQUA method for quantitative immunofluorescence. Scores were correlated with clinicopathologic variables, survival, and response to therapy. Results Assessment of the Yale cohort using Cox univariate analysis indicated an improved overall survival (OS) in tumors with a positive correlation between high MAP-tau expression and overall survival (OS) (HR = 0.691, 95% CI = 0.489-0.974; P = 0.004). Kaplan Meier analysis showed 10-year survival for 65% of patients with high MAP-tau expression compared to 52% with low expression (P = .006). In TAX 307, high expression was associated with significantly longer median time to tumor progression (TTP) regardless of treatment arm (33.0 versus 23.4 months, P = 0.010) with mean TTP of 31.2 months. Response rates did not differ by MAP-tau expression (P = 0.518) or by treatment arm (P = 0.584). Conclusions Quantitative measurement of MAP-tau expression has prognostic value in both cohorts, with high expression associated with longer TTP and OS. Differences by treatment arm or response rate in low versus high MAP-tau groups were not observed, indicating that MAP-tau is not associated with response to taxanes and is not a useful predictive marker for taxane-based chemotherapy. PMID:21888627

Screening of Tanzanian women of childbearing age for urinary schistosomiasis: validity of urine reagent strip readings and self-reported symptoms.

PubMed Central

Poggensee, G.; Krantz, I.; Kiwelu, I.; Feldmeier, H.

2000-01-01

The screening of women of childbearing age for haematuria, leukocyturia and proteinuria to detect urinary schistosomiasis can be confounded by several factors such as menstruation, pregnancy and genitourinary infections. We therefore undertook a study in an area endemic for Schistosoma haematobium in the United Republic of Tanzania to carry out the following: assess the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values--in women of childbearing age--of indirect indicators of urinary schistosomiasis, as measured by urine reagent strip readings; assess the predictive values of self-reported symptoms; and finally to estimate the morbidity attributable to S. haematobium. A total of 303 women (128 and 175, respectively, living in high- and low-risk sites) participated in the study. Haematuria was more frequent among women excreting S. haematobium eggs than among those who did not (65% versus 32%). The predictive potential of all indirect disease markers was poor in the highly endemic site, while in the sites with low endemicity the negative predictive values were high. Among infected women, 54% of haematuria could be attributed to S. haematobium, but for patients with more than 10 eggs/10 ml the attributable fraction rose to 70%. Symptoms of "bloody urine" and "pain while urinating" were recalled significantly more often by women living in the highly endemic site. On a population level, one-third of the self-reported cases with bloody urine could be attributed to urinary schistosomiasis. Screening of women of childbearing age for urinary schistosomiasis using urine reagent strips can be biased in two directions. The prevalence of S. haematobium will be overestimated if other causes of haematuria, such as reproductive tract infections, are highly endemic. On the other hand, women with light or very light infections will be missed and will not be treated. This is of concern because genital schistosomiasis, a possible risk factor for the transmission of HIV, occurs among women even with light infections. PMID:10885183

CoMFA and CoMSIA 3D-QSAR studies on S(6)-(4-nitrobenzyl)mercaptopurine riboside (NBMPR) analogs as inhibitors of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1).

PubMed

Gupte, Amol; Buolamwini, John K

2009-01-15

3D-QSAR (CoMFA and CoMSIA) studies were performed on human equlibrative nucleoside transporter (hENT1) inhibitors displaying K(i) values ranging from 10,000 to 0.7nM. Both CoMFA and CoMSIA analysis gave reliable models with q2 values >0.50 and r2 values >0.92. The models have been validated for their stability and robustness using group validation and bootstrapping techniques and for their predictive abilities using an external test set of nine compounds. The high predictive r2 values of the test set (0.72 for CoMFA model and 0.74 for CoMSIA model) reveals that the models can prove to be a useful tool for activity prediction of newly designed nucleoside transporter inhibitors. The CoMFA and CoMSIA contour maps identify features important for exhibiting good binding affinities at the transporter, and can thus serve as a useful guide for the design of potential equilibrative nucleoside transporter inhibitors.

Self-reported history of vaccination and disease and immunity against hepatitis A, hepatitis B, tetanus, diphtheria and varicella among Spanish military recruits.

PubMed

Arteaga, Alejandro; Desviat, Pilar Vallejo; Jaqueti, Jeronimo; Santos, Juana; de Miguel, Angel Gil; Garcia, Rodrigo Jiménez

2010-02-01

This study aims to evaluate the immune status against hepatitis A, hepatitis B, tetanus, diphtheria and varicella in military recruits and the validity of self-reporting of their disease and vaccination history. A total of 226 participants were studied (mean age, 20.2 years; SD 1.7). 10.4% presented antibodies to hepatitis A, 78.3% to hepatitis B, 94.2% to tetanus, 77.4% to diphtheria and 81.9% to varicella. The relationship between self-reporting of vaccination history and seroprotection showed a high Positive Predictive Value for tetanus (98.8%) and a high Negative Predictive Value for hepatitis A (91%). Hepatitis A vaccination and serology testing for varicella and Hepatitis B on joining the Spanish armed forces are recommended.

Hybrid Capture II detection of oncogenic human papillomavirus: a useful tool when evaluating men who have sex with men with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance on anal cytology.

PubMed

Goldstone, Stephen E; Kawalek, Adam Z; Goldstone, Robert N; Goldstone, Andrew B

2008-07-01

In the cervix and anus, patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance often do not have high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions. In women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance, Hybrid-Capture II testing for oncogenic high-risk human papillomavirus is performed and those without high-risk human papillomavirus often are observed. We endeavored to determine whether Hybrid-Capture II testing would be beneficial in men who have sex with men with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance. We performed a retrospective chart review of men who have sex with men with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance who had high-resolution anoscopy and Hybrid-Capture II. A total of 290 men were identified (mean age, 42 years), and 212 (73 percent) were HIV-negative. High-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions were found in 50 (17 percent): 23 (10 percent) who were HIV-negative and 27 (35 percent) who were HIV-positive men. High-risk human papillomavirus was found in 138 (48 percent); 91 (43 percent) of HIV-negative and 47 (60 percent) of HIV-positive men. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of atypical cells of undetermined significance cytology combined with Hybrid-Capture II were 84, 60, 30, and 95 percent, respectively. There was no significant difference between all men vs. those who were HIV-positive or HIV-negative except for the positive predictive value. Hybrid-Capture II testing for high-risk human papillomavirus in men who have sex with men with atypical cells of undetermined significance and referring only those with high-risk human papillomavirus reduces the number who require high-resolution anoscopy by more than half. Five percent with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions would be missed.

Predicting the Plate Dent Test Output in Order to Assess the Performance of Condensed High Explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frem, Dany

2017-01-01

In the present study, a relationship is proposed that is capable of predicting the output of the plate dent test. It is shown that the initial density ?; condensed phase heat of formation ?; the number of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), oxygen (O); and the composition molecular weight (MW) are the most important parameters needed in order to accurately predict the absolute dent depth ? produced on 1018 cold-rolled steel by a detonating organic explosive. The estimated ? values can be used to predict the detonation pressure (P) of high explosives; furthermore, we show that a correlation exists between ? and the Gurney velocity ? parameter. The new correlation is used to accurately estimate ? for several C-H-N-O explosive compositions.

Evaluation of the WinROP system for identifying retinopathy of prematurity in Czech preterm infants.

PubMed

Timkovic, Juraj; Pokryvkova, Martina; Janurova, Katerina; Barinova, Denisa; Polackova, Renata; Masek, Petr

2017-03-01

Retinopathy of Prematurity (ROP) is a potentially serious condition that can afflict preterm infants. Timely and correct identification of individuals at risk of developing a serious form of ROP is therefore of paramount importance. WinROP is an online system for predicting ROP based on birth weight and weight increments. However, the results vary significantly for various populations. It has not been evaluated in the Czech population. This study evaluates the test characteristics (specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values) of the WinROP system in Czech preterm infants. Data on 445 prematurely born infants included in the ROP screening program at the University Hospital Ostrava, Czech Republic, were retrospectively entered into the WinROP system and the outcomes of the WinROP and regular screening were compared. All 24 infants who developed high-risk (Type 1 or Type 2) ROP were correctly identified by the system. The sensitivity and negative predictive values for this group were 100%. However, the specificity and positive predictive values were substantially lower, resulting in a large number of false positives. Extending the analysis to low risk ROP, the system did not provide such reliable results. The system is a valuable tool for identifying infants who are not likely to develop high-risk ROP and this could help to substantially reduce the number of preterm infants in need of regular ROP screening. It is not suitable for predicting the development of less serious forms of ROP which is however in accordance with the declared aims of the WinROP system.

Comparison of hadron production models for π±, k±, protons and antiprotons production in proton-carbon interactions at 60 GeV/c

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaz, M.; Ullah, S.; Ali, Y.; Younis, H.

2018-02-01

In this research paper, the comprehensive results on the double differential yield of π± and k± mesons, protons and antiprotons as a function of laboratory momentum are reported. These hadrons are produced in proton-carbon interaction at 60 GeV/c. EPOS 1.99, EPOS-LHC and QGSJETII-04 models are used to perform simulations. Comparing the predictions of these models show that QGSJETII-04 model predicts higher yields of all the hadrons in most of the cases at the peak of the distribution. In this interval, the EPOS 1.99 and EPOS-LHC produce similar results. In most of the cases at higher momentum of the hadrons, all the three models are in good agreement. For protons, all models are in good agreement. EPOS-LHC gives high yield of antiprotons at high momentum values as compared to the other two models. EPOS-LHC gives higher prediction at the peak value for π+ mesons and protons at higher polar angle intervals of 100 < 𝜃 < 420 and 100 < 𝜃 < 360, respectively, and EPOS 1.99 gives higher prediction at the peak value for π- mesons for 140 < 𝜃 < 420. The model predictions, except for antiprotons, are compared with the data obtained by the NA61/SHINE experiment at 31 GeV/c proton-carbon collision, which clearly shows that the behavior of the distributions in models are similar to the ones from the data but the yield in data is low because of lower beam energy.

Automatic burst detection for the EEG of the preterm infant.

PubMed

Jennekens, Ward; Ruijs, Loes S; Lommen, Charlotte M L; Niemarkt, Hendrik J; Pasman, Jaco W; van Kranen-Mastenbroek, Vivianne H J M; Wijn, Pieter F F; van Pul, Carola; Andriessen, Peter

2011-10-01

To aid with prognosis and stratification of clinical treatment for preterm infants, a method for automated detection of bursts, interburst-intervals (IBIs) and continuous patterns in the electroencephalogram (EEG) is developed. Results are evaluated for preterm infants with normal neurological follow-up at 2 years. The detection algorithm (MATLAB®) for burst, IBI and continuous pattern is based on selection by amplitude, time span, number of channels and numbers of active electrodes. Annotations of two neurophysiologists were used to determine threshold values. The training set consisted of EEG recordings of four preterm infants with postmenstrual age (PMA, gestational age + postnatal age) of 29-34 weeks. Optimal threshold values were based on overall highest sensitivity. For evaluation, both observers verified detections in an independent dataset of four EEG recordings with comparable PMA. Algorithm performance was assessed by calculation of sensitivity and positive predictive value. The results of algorithm evaluation are as follows: sensitivity values of 90% ± 6%, 80% ± 9% and 97% ± 5% for burst, IBI and continuous patterns, respectively. Corresponding positive predictive values were 88% ± 8%, 96% ± 3% and 85% ± 15%, respectively. In conclusion, the algorithm showed high sensitivity and positive predictive values for bursts, IBIs and continuous patterns in preterm EEG. Computer-assisted analysis of EEG may allow objective and reproducible analysis for clinical treatment.

Refinement of detecting atrial fibrillation in stroke patients: results from the TRACK-AF Study.

PubMed

Reinke, F; Bettin, M; Ross, L S; Kochhäuser, S; Kleffner, I; Ritter, M; Minnerup, J; Dechering, D; Eckardt, L; Dittrich, R

2018-04-01

Detection of occult atrial fibrillation (AF) is crucial for optimal secondary prevention in stroke patients. The AF detection rate was determined by implantable cardiac monitor (ICM) and compared to the prediction rate of the probability of incident AF by software based analysis of a continuously monitored electrocardiogram at follow-up (stroke risk analysis, SRA); an optimized AF detection algorithm is proposed by combining both tools. In a monocentric prospective study 105 out of 389 patients with cryptogenic stroke despite extensive diagnostic workup were investigated with two additional cardiac monitoring tools: (a) 20 months' monitoring by ICM and (b) SRA during hospitalization at the stroke unit. The detection rate of occult AF was 18% by ICM (n = 19) (range 6-575 days) and 62% (n = 65) had an increased risk for AF predicted by SRA. When comparing the predictive accuracy of SRA to ICM, the sensitivity was 95%, specificity 35%, positive predictive value 27% and negative predictive value 96%. In 18 patients with AF detected by ICM, SRA also showed a medium risk for AF. Only one patient with a very low risk predicted by SRA developed AF revealed by ICM after 417 days. A combination of SRA and ICM is a promising strategy to detect occult AF. SRA is reliable in predicting incident AF with a high negative predictive value. Thus, SRA may serve as a cost-effective pre-selection tool identifying patients at risk for AF who may benefit from further cardiac monitoring by ICM. © 2017 EAN.

Predicting suicide attempts with the SAD PERSONS scale: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Bolton, James M; Spiwak, Rae; Sareen, Jitender

2012-06-01

The SAD PERSONS scale is a widely used risk assessment tool for suicidal behavior despite a paucity of supporting data. The objective of this study was to examine the ability of the scale in predicting suicide attempts. Participants consisted of consecutive referrals (N=4,019) over 2 years (January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010) to psychiatric services in the emergency departments of the 2 largest tertiary care hospitals in the province of Manitoba, Canada. SAD PERSONS and Modified SAD PERSONS (MSPS) scale scores were recorded for individuals at their index and all subsequent presentations. The 2 main outcome measures in the study included current suicide attempts (at index presentation) and future suicide attempts (within the next 6 months). The ability of the scales to predict suicide attempts was evaluated with logistic regression, sensitivity and specificity analyses, and receiver operating characteristic curves. 566 people presented with suicide attempts (14.1% of the sample). Both SAD PERSONS and MSPS showed poor predictive ability for future suicide attempts. Compared to low risk scores, high risk baseline scores had low sensitivity (19.6% and 40.0%, respectively) and low positive predictive value (5.3% and 7.4%, respectively). SAD PERSONS did not predict suicide attempts better than chance (area under the curve =0.572; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51-0.64; P value nonsignificant). Stepwise regression identified 5 original scale items that accounted for the greatest proportion of future suicide attempt variance. High risk scores using this model had high sensitivity (93.5%) and were associated with a 5-fold higher likelihood of future suicide attempt presentation (odds ratio =5.58; 95% CI, 2.24-13.86; P<.001). In their current form, SAD PERSONS and MSPS do not accurately predict future suicide attempts. © Copyright 2012 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Younger age, female sex, and high number of awakenings and arousals predict fatigue in patients with sleep disorders: a retrospective polysomnographic observational study

PubMed Central

Veauthier, Christian

2013-01-01

Background The Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) is widely used to assess fatigue, not only in the context of multiple sclerosis-related fatigue, but also in many other medical conditions. Some polysomnographic studies have shown high FSS values in sleep-disordered patients without multiple sclerosis. The Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS) has increasingly been used in order to assess fatigue, but polysomnographic data investigating sleep-disordered patients are thus far unavailable. Moreover, the pathophysiological link between sleep architecture and fatigue measured with the MFIS and the FSS has not been previously investigated. Methods This was a retrospective observational study (n = 410) with subgroups classified according to sleep diagnosis. The statistical analysis included nonparametric correlation between questionnaire results and polysomnographic data, age and sex, and univariate and multiple logistic regression. Results The multiple logistic regression showed a significant relationship between FSS/MFIS values and younger age and female sex. Moreover, there was a significant relationship between FSS values and number of arousals and between MFIS values and number of awakenings. Conclusion Younger age, female sex, and high number of awakenings and arousals are predictive of fatigue in sleep-disordered patients. Further investigations are needed to find the pathophysiological explanation for these relationships. PMID:24109185

Bilirubin nomogram for prediction of significant hyperbilirubinemia in north Indian neonates.

PubMed

Pathak, Umesh; Chawla, Deepak; Kaur, Saranjit; Jain, Suksham

2013-04-01

(i) To construct hour-specific serum total bilirubin (STB) nomogram in neonates born at =35 weeks of gestation; (ii)To evaluate efficacy of pre-discharge bilirubin measurement in predicting hyperbilirubinemia needing treatment. Diagnostic test performance in a prospective cohort study. Teaching hospital in Northern India. Healthy neonates with gestation =35 weeks or birth weight =2000 g. Serum total bilirubin was measured in all enrolled neonates at 24 ± 6, 72-96 and 96-144 h of postnatal age and when indicated clinically. Neonates were followed up during hospital stay and after discharge till completion of 7th postnatal day. Key outcome was significant hyperbilirubinemia (SHB) defined as need of phototherapy based on modified American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines. In neonates born at 38 or more weeks of gestation middle line and in neonates born at 37 or less completed weeks of gestation, lower line of phototherapy thresholds were used to initiate phototherapy. For construction of nomogram, STB values were clubbed in six-hour epochs (age ± 3 hours) for postnatal age up to 48 h and twelve-hour epochs (age ± 6 hours) for age beyond 48 h. Predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio, by plotting receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calculating c-statistic. 997 neonates (birth weight: 2627 ± 536 g, gestation: 37.8 ± 1.5 weeks) were enrolled, of which 931 completed followup. Among enrolled neonates 344 (34.5%) were low birth weight. Rate of exclusive breastfeeding during hospital stay was more than 80%. Bilirubin nomogram was constructed using 40th, 75th and 95th percentile values of hour-specific bilirubin. Pre-discharge STB of =95th percentile was assigned to be in high-risk zone, between 75th and 94th centile in upper-intermediate risk zone, between 40th and 74th centile in lower-intermediate risk zone and below 40th percentile in low-risk zone. Among 49 neonates with pre-discharge STB in high risk zone. 34 developed SHB (positive predictive value: 69.4%, sensitivity: 17.1%, positive likelihood ratio: 8.26). Among 342 neonates with pre-discharge STB in low risk zone, 32 developed PHB (negative predictive value: 90.6% and specificity: 42.5%, positive likelihood ratio: 0.37). Area under curve for this risk assessment strategy was 0.73. Hour-specific bilirubin nomogram and STB measurement can be used for predicting subsequent need of phototherapy. Further studies are needed to validate performance of risk demarcation zones defined in this hour-specific bilirubin nomogram.

Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgopoulou, Elisavet; Djursvoll, Per; Simaiakis, Stylianos M.

2016-07-01

In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities.

Transcutaneous measurement of hyperbilirubinaemia: comparison of the Minolta jaundice meter and the Ingram icterometer.

PubMed

Bilgen, H; Ince, Z; Ozek, E; Bekiroglu, N; Ors, R

1998-12-01

The effectiveness of two different non-invasive transcutaneous bilirubin measurement devices was compared with serum bilirubin levels in 96 healthy newborns. Transcutaneous measurements were obtained with the Minolta Air Shields jaundice meter and the Ingram icterometer and serum bilirubin levels were determined by a direct spectrophotometric method (Bilitron 444). A linear correlation existed between serum bilirubin values and the readings on both the Minolta jaundice meter (r = 0.83) and the Ingram icterometer (r = 0.78). The Kappa coefficient was 0.66. the sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 100%, 56%, 33% and 100% for the Minolta jaundice meter and 100%, 48%, 29% and 100% for the Ingram icterometer, respectively. The high sensitivity and negative predictive value of both devices render them suitable for screening neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia. However, because of its low cost, the Ingram icterometer is preferable to the more complex and expensive Minolta jaundice meter, especially in countries with a high birth rate, such as Turkey.

The association between plasma big endothelin-1 levels at admission and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Wu, Shuang; Yang, Yan-Min; Zhu, Jun; Ren, Jia-Meng; Wang, Juan; Zhang, Han; Shao, Xing-Hui

2018-05-01

The prognostic role of big endothelin-1 (ET-1) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. We aimed to assess its predictive value in patients with AF. A total of 716 AF patients were enrolled and divided into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of big ET-1 in predicting all-cause mortality. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and major adverse events (MAEs). Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were performed to assess the predictive value of big ET-1 on outcomes. With the optimal cut-off value of 0.55 pmol/L, 326 patients were classified into the high big ET-1 levels group. Cardiac dysfunction and left atrial dilation were factors related to high big ET-1 levels. During a median follow-up of 3 years, patients with big ET-1 ≥ 0.55 pmol/L had notably higher risk of all-cause death (44.8% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.001), MAEs (51.8% vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001), cardiovascular death, major bleeding, and tended to have higher thromboembolic risk. After adjusting for confounding factors, high big ET-1 level was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.05; p < 0.001), MAEs (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.50-2.80; p = 0.001), and cardiovascular death (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.52-3.93; p < 0.001). NRI analysis showed that big ET-1 allowed a significant improvement of 0.32 in the accuracy of predicting the risk of both all-cause mortality and MAEs. Elevated big ET-1 levels is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality, MAEs, and cardiovascular death in patients with AF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Sanofi Diagnostics Pasteur Chlamydia Microplate EIA shortened assay and comparison with cell culture and Syva Chlamydia MicroTrak II EIA in high- and low-risk populations.

PubMed

Chan, E L; Brandt, K; Horsman, G

1995-11-01

Seven hundred thirty-two female urogenital samples were collected for Chlamydia trachomatis testing by both the Sanofi Diagnostics Pasteur (Chaska, Minn.) Chlamydia Microplate EIA by the shortened protocol and the Syva (San Jose, Calif.) MicroTrak II EIA, and the results were compared with those obtained by cell culture. For the analysis of samples from female patients, the patients were divided into high- and low-risk categories. An additional 121 male urethral samples were collected and tested by the Sanofi Microplate EIA and cell culture; for the analysis of samples from male patients, the patients were divided into asymptomatic and symptomatic categories. All specimens positive by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) were confirmed by a blocking assay following the respective manufacturer's instructions. Specimens negative by EIA that fell within a gray zone 30% below the cutoff and negative cultures with one or more corresponding positive EIA results were tested further by cytocentrifugation and direct immunofluorescent assay. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for Syva versus culture were 94, 98.8, 85.5 and 99.6%, respectively. After resolution, the results were 94.5, 99.6, 94.5, and 99.6%, respectively. The parallel results for the Sanofi Microplate EIA versus culture were 94.0, 98.7, and 83.9, and 99.6%, respectively, and after being resolved, the results were 94.9, 100, 100, and 99.6%, respectively. In the small male population tested, the resolved results of the Sanofi Microplate EIA versus culture demonstrated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 100, 100, 100, and 100%, respectively. The present study demonstrated that the Sanofi Microplate EIA shortened protocol is highly sensitive and specific in comparison with cell culture and the Syva MicroTrak II EIA.

The incorrect usage of singular spectral analysis and discrete wavelet transform in hybrid models to predict hydrological time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Kongchang; Zhao, Ying; Lei, Jiaqiang

2017-09-01

In hydrological time series prediction, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are widely used as preprocessing techniques for artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) predictors. These hybrid or ensemble models seem to largely reduce the prediction error. In current literature researchers apply these techniques to the whole observed time series and then obtain a set of reconstructed or decomposed time series as inputs to ANN or SVM. However, through two comparative experiments and mathematical deduction we found the usage of SSA and DWT in building hybrid models is incorrect. Since SSA and DWT adopt 'future' values to perform the calculation, the series generated by SSA reconstruction or DWT decomposition contain information of 'future' values. These hybrid models caused incorrect 'high' prediction performance and may cause large errors in practice.

Good feelings in christianity and buddhism: religious differences in ideal affect.

PubMed

Tsai, Jeanne L; Miao, Felicity F; Seppala, Emma

2007-03-01

Affect valuation theory (AVT) predicts cultural variation in the affective states that people ideally want to feel (i.e., "ideal affect"). National and ethnic comparisons support this prediction: For instance, European Americans (EA) value high arousal positive (HAP) states (e.g., excitement) more and low arousal positive (LAP) states (e.g., calm) less than Hong Kong Chinese. In this article, the authors examine whether religions differ in the ideal affective states they endorse. The authors predicted that Christianity values HAP more and LAP less than Buddhism. In Study 1, they compared Christian and Buddhist practitioners' ideal affect. In Studies 2 and 3, they compared the endorsement of HAP and LAP in Christian and Buddhist classical texts (e.g., Gospels, Lotus Sutra) and contemporary self-help books (e.g., Your Best Life Now, Art of Happiness). Findings supported predictions, suggesting that AVT applies to religious and to national and ethnic cultures.

Gene and translation initiation site prediction in metagenomic sequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyatt, Philip Douglas; LoCascio, Philip F; Hauser, Loren John

2012-01-01

Gene prediction in metagenomic sequences remains a difficult problem. Current sequencing technologies do not achieve sufficient coverage to assemble the individual genomes in a typical sample; consequently, sequencing runs produce a large number of short sequences whose exact origin is unknown. Since these sequences are usually smaller than the average length of a gene, algorithms must make predictions based on very little data. We present MetaProdigal, a metagenomic version of the gene prediction program Prodigal, that can identify genes in short, anonymous coding sequences with a high degree of accuracy. The novel value of the method consists of enhanced translationmore » initiation site identification, ability to identify sequences that use alternate genetic codes and confidence values for each gene call. We compare the results of MetaProdigal with other methods and conclude with a discussion of future improvements.« less

Effect of obesity on preterm delivery prediction by transabdominal recording of uterine electromyography.

PubMed

Lucovnik, Miha; Chambliss, Linda R; Blumrick, Richard; Balducci, James; Gersak, Ksenija; Garfield, Robert E

2016-10-01

It has been shown that noninvasive uterine electromyography (EMG) can identify true preterm labor more accurately than methods available to clinicians today. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of body mass index (BMI) on the accuracy of uterine EMG in predicting preterm delivery. Predictive values of uterine EMG for preterm delivery were compared in obese versus overweight/normal BMI patients. Hanley-McNeil test was used to compare receiver operator characteristics curves in these groups. Previously reported EMG cutoffs were used to determine groups with false positive/false negative and true positive/true negative EMG results. BMI in these groups was compared with Student t test (p < 0.05 significant). A total of 88 patients were included: 20 obese, 64 overweight, and four with normal BMI. EMG predicted preterm delivery within 7 days with area under the curve = 0.95 in the normal/overweight group, and with area under the curve = 1.00 in the obese group (p = 0.08). Six patients in true preterm labor (delivering within 7 days from EMG measurement) had low EMG values (false negative group). There were no false positive results. No significant differences in patient's BMI were noted between false negative group patients and preterm labor patients with high EMG values (true positive group) and nonlabor patients with low EMG values (true negative group; p = 0.32). Accuracy of noninvasive uterine EMG monitoring and its predictive value for preterm delivery are not affected by obesity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Accurate prediction of acute fish toxicity of fragrance chemicals with the RTgill-W1 cell assay.

PubMed

Natsch, Andreas; Laue, Heike; Haupt, Tina; von Niederhäusern, Valentin; Sanders, Gordon

2018-03-01

Testing for acute fish toxicity is an integral part of the environmental safety assessment of chemicals. A true replacement of primary fish tissue was recently proposed using cell viability in a fish gill cell line (RTgill-W1) as a means of predicting acute toxicity, showing good predictivity on 35 chemicals. To promote regulatory acceptance, the predictivity and applicability domain of novel tests need to be carefully evaluated on chemicals with existing high-quality in vivo data. We applied the RTgill-W1 cell assay to 38 fragrance chemicals with a wide range of both physicochemical properties and median lethal concentration (LC50) values and representing a diverse range of chemistries. A strong correlation (R 2  = 0.90-0.94) between the logarithmic in vivo LC50 values, based on fish mortality, and the logarithmic in vitro median effect concentration (EC50) values based on cell viability was observed. A leave-one-out analysis illustrates a median under-/overprediction from in vitro EC50 values to in vivo LC50 values by a factor of 1.5. This assay offers a simple, accurate, and reliable alternative to in vivo acute fish toxicity testing for chemicals, presumably acting mainly by a narcotic mode of action. Furthermore, the present study provides validation of the predictivity of the RTgill-W1 assay on a completely independent set of chemicals that had not been previously tested and indicates that fragrance chemicals are clearly within the applicability domain. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:931-941. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Naked-eye inspection of the cervix after acetic acid application may improve the predictive value of negative cytologic screening.

PubMed

Frisch, L E; Milner, F H; Ferris, D G

1994-11-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of naked-eye inspection of the cervix (NIC) after acetic acid application as an adjunct to Papanicolaou (Pap) testing for cervical cancer screening. Study subjects were women attending a medical college student health clinic either for cervical cytologic screening (67%) or because of a recent atypical cytologic screening result (33%). All study participants received cytologic screening, cervicography, and NIC. Of the 95 patients, 71 (75%) had abnormal findings on NIC. Fifty-one patients underwent colposcopy with biopsy, including 48 of the 71 with an abnormal finding on NIC. The results of 40 of the biopsies were abnormal: 36 showed human papillomavirus or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, 3 showed high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, and 1 showed invasive cervical cancer. Sixty-five percent (26) of the abnormal biopsy findings occurred in women with normal cytologic test results. NIC and cervicography both were effective in identifying patients with abnormalities, but the combination of NIC followed by cervicography referred fewer women for colposcopy than did a positive result on NIC alone (52% vs 75%). The combination of a negative Pap smear and a negative NIC result had a 91% predictive value for the absence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. This was a significant improvement over cytologic screening alone. In this study, the combination of cytologic screening (Pap smear) and NIC increased the screening yield as compared with a Pap smear alone but with some loss of positive predictive value. NIC significantly improved the predictive value of negative cytologic screening results.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Risk Stratification of Patients With Renal Impairment Presenting With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Miller-Hodges, Eve; Anand, Atul; Shah, Anoop S.V.; Chapman, Andrew R.; Gallacher, Peter; Lee, Kuan Ken; Farrah, Tariq; Halbesma, Nynke; Blackmur, James P.; Newby, David E.; Mills, Nicholas L.

2018-01-01

Background: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing may improve the risk stratification and diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but concentrations can be challenging to interpret in patients with renal impairment, and the effectiveness of testing in this group is uncertain. Methods: In a prospective multicenter study of consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, we evaluated the performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I in those with and without renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60mL/min/1.73m2). The negative predictive value and sensitivity of troponin concentrations below the risk stratification threshold (5 ng/L) at presentation were reported for a primary outcome of index type 1 myocardial infarction, or type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile diagnostic threshold (16 ng/L in women, 34 ng/L in men) was determined for index type 1 myocardial infarction. Subsequent type 1 myocardial infarction and cardiac death were reported at 1 year. Results: Of 4726 patients identified, 904 (19%) had renal impairment. Troponin concentrations <5 ng/L at presentation identified 17% of patients with renal impairment as low risk for the primary outcome (negative predictive value, 98.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 96.0%–99.7%; sensitivity 98.9%; 95%CI, 97.5%–99.9%), in comparison with 56% without renal impairment (P<0.001) with similar performance (negative predictive value, 99.7%; 95% CI, 99.4%–99.9%; sensitivity 98.4%; 95% CI, 97.2%–99.4%). The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile were lower in patients with renal impairment at 50.0% (95% CI, 45.2%–54.8%) and 70.9% (95% CI, 67.5%–74.2%), respectively, in comparison with 62.4% (95% CI, 58.8%–65.9%) and 92.1% (95% CI, 91.2%–93.0%) in those without. At 1 year, patients with troponin concentrations >99th centile and renal impairment were at greater risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death than those with normal renal function (24% versus 10%; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.54–3.11). Conclusions: In suspected acute coronary syndrome, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identified fewer patients with renal impairment as low risk and more as high risk, but with lower specificity for type 1 myocardial infarction. Irrespective of diagnosis, patients with renal impairment and elevated cardiac troponin concentrations had a 2-fold greater risk of a major cardiac event than those with normal renal function, and should be considered for further investigation and treatment. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01852123. PMID:28978551

Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). Methods A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. Results The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Conclusions Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified automatically from existing geriatric assessment data, especially when combined with domain knowledge in a hybrid classification model. Further work is necessary to validate our approach in a controlled prospective setting. PMID:22417403

Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups.

PubMed

Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

2012-03-14

Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified automatically from existing geriatric assessment data, especially when combined with domain knowledge in a hybrid classification model. Further work is necessary to validate our approach in a controlled prospective setting.

[Validation of the portuguese version of the Mini-Social Phobia Inventory (Mini-SPIN)].

PubMed

D'El Rey, Gustavo José Fonseca; Matos, Cláudia Wilmor

2009-01-01

Social phobia (also known as social anxiety disorder) is a severe mental disorder that brings distress and disability. The aim of this study was validate to the Portuguese language the Mini-Social Phobia Inventory (Mini-SPIN) in a populational sample. We performed a discriminative validity study of the Mini-SPIN in a sample of 644 subjects (Mini-SPIN positive group: n = 218 and control/negative group: n = 426) of a study of anxiety disorders' prevalence in the city of Santo André-SP. The Portuguese version of the Mini-SPIN (with score of 6 points, suggested in the original English version) demonstrated a sensitivity of 95.0%, specificity of 80.3%, positive predictive value of 52.8%, negative predictive value of 98.6% and incorrect classification rate of 16.9%. With score of 7 points, was observed an increase in the specificity and positive predictive value (88.6% and 62.7%), while the sensitivity and negative predictive value (84.8% and 96.2%) remained high. The Portuguese version of the Mini-SPIN showed satisfactory psychometric qualities in terms of discriminative validity. In this study, the cut-off of 7, was considered to be the most suitable to screening of the generalized social phobia.

Reliability of fluorescein dye disappearance test in assessment of adults with nasolacrimal duct obstruction.

PubMed

Kashkouli, Mohsen Bahmani; Mirzajani, Hoora; Jamshidian-Tehrani, Mansooreh; Pakdel, Farzad; Nojomi, Marzieh; Aghaei, Gholam-Hossein

2013-01-01

To evaluate the role of fluorescein dye disappearance test (FDDT) in assessment of adults with primary acquired nasolacrimal duct obstruction (PANDO) and its correlation with age and severity of epiphora. In a prospective, cross-sectional comparative study, FDDT at 2 (2-FDDT), 5 (5-FDDT), and 10 (10-FDDT) minutes were performed in 58 eyes of 58 patients with PANDO (case) and 58 eyes of 58 subjects without epiphora (control) between 2008 and 2010. Exclusion criteria were any disease, trauma, or medications that might have an effect on tear drainage system. Patients with functional or incomplete obstruction and upper lacrimal drainage system obstruction were excluded in the case group. FDDT and severity of epiphora were graded. Case and control groups were matched. 2-FDDT showed a sensitivity of 82.8%, specificity of 91.4%, positive predictive value of 90.6%, and negative predictive value of 84.1%. Sensitivity and negative predictive value decreased to 71.1% and 78.6% in 5-FDDT. 5-FDDT specificity and positive predictive value, however, increased to 94.8% and 93.5%, respectively. There was no statistically significant correlation between severity of epiphora and age with FDDT. FDDT is a simple, reliable, and highly specific test in assessment of adults with PANDO.

Predicting critical micelle concentration and micelle molecular weight of polysorbate 80 using compendial methods.

PubMed

Braun, Alexandra C; Ilko, David; Merget, Benjamin; Gieseler, Henning; Germershaus, Oliver; Holzgrabe, Ulrike; Meinel, Lorenz

2015-08-01

This manuscript addresses the capability of compendial methods in controlling polysorbate 80 (PS80) functionality. Based on the analysis of sixteen batches, functionality related characteristics (FRC) including critical micelle concentration (CMC), cloud point, hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) value and micelle molecular weight were correlated to chemical composition including fatty acids before and after hydrolysis, content of non-esterified polyethylene glycols and sorbitan polyethoxylates, sorbitan- and isosorbide polyethoxylate fatty acid mono- and diesters, polyoxyethylene diesters, and peroxide values. Batches from some suppliers had a high variability in functionality related characteristic (FRC), questioning the ability of the current monograph in controlling these. Interestingly, the combined use of the input parameters oleic acid content and peroxide value - both of which being monographed methods - resulted in a model adequately predicting CMC. Confining the batches to those complying with specifications for peroxide value proved oleic acid content alone as being predictive for CMC. Similarly, a four parameter model based on chemical analyses alone was instrumental in predicting the molecular weight of PS80 micelles. Improved models based on analytical outcome from fingerprint analyses are also presented. A road map controlling PS80 batches with respect to FRC and based on chemical analyses alone is provided for the formulator. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drug response in a genetically engineered mouse model of multiple myeloma is predictive of clinical efficacy

PubMed Central

Chesi, Marta; Matthews, Geoffrey M.; Garbitt, Victoria M.; Palmer, Stephen E.; Shortt, Jake; Lefebure, Marcus; Stewart, A. Keith; Johnstone, Ricky W.

2012-01-01

The attrition rate for anticancer drugs entering clinical trials is unacceptably high. For multiple myeloma (MM), we postulate that this is because of preclinical models that overemphasize the antiproliferative activity of drugs, and clinical trials performed in refractory end-stage patients. We validate the Vk*MYC transgenic mouse as a faithful model to predict single-agent drug activity in MM with a positive predictive value of 67% (4 of 6) for clinical activity, and a negative predictive value of 86% (6 of 7) for clinical inactivity. We identify 4 novel agents that should be prioritized for evaluation in clinical trials. Transplantation of Vk*MYC tumor cells into congenic mice selected for a more aggressive disease that models end-stage drug-resistant MM and responds only to combinations of drugs with single-agent activity in untreated Vk*MYC MM. We predict that combinations of standard agents, histone deacetylase inhibitors, bromodomain inhibitors, and hypoxia-activated prodrugs will demonstrate efficacy in the treatment of relapsed MM. PMID:22451422

A novel multi-target regression framework for time-series prediction of drug efficacy.

PubMed

Li, Haiqing; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Ying; Guo, Yumeng; Li, Guo-Zheng; Zhu, Xiaoxin

2017-01-18

Excavating from small samples is a challenging pharmacokinetic problem, where statistical methods can be applied. Pharmacokinetic data is special due to the small samples of high dimensionality, which makes it difficult to adopt conventional methods to predict the efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) prescription. The main purpose of our study is to obtain some knowledge of the correlation in TCM prescription. Here, a novel method named Multi-target Regression Framework to deal with the problem of efficacy prediction is proposed. We employ the correlation between the values of different time sequences and add predictive targets of previous time as features to predict the value of current time. Several experiments are conducted to test the validity of our method and the results of leave-one-out cross-validation clearly manifest the competitiveness of our framework. Compared with linear regression, artificial neural networks, and partial least squares, support vector regression combined with our framework demonstrates the best performance, and appears to be more suitable for this task.

A novel multi-target regression framework for time-series prediction of drug efficacy

PubMed Central

Li, Haiqing; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Ying; Guo, Yumeng; Li, Guo-Zheng; Zhu, Xiaoxin

2017-01-01

Excavating from small samples is a challenging pharmacokinetic problem, where statistical methods can be applied. Pharmacokinetic data is special due to the small samples of high dimensionality, which makes it difficult to adopt conventional methods to predict the efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) prescription. The main purpose of our study is to obtain some knowledge of the correlation in TCM prescription. Here, a novel method named Multi-target Regression Framework to deal with the problem of efficacy prediction is proposed. We employ the correlation between the values of different time sequences and add predictive targets of previous time as features to predict the value of current time. Several experiments are conducted to test the validity of our method and the results of leave-one-out cross-validation clearly manifest the competitiveness of our framework. Compared with linear regression, artificial neural networks, and partial least squares, support vector regression combined with our framework demonstrates the best performance, and appears to be more suitable for this task. PMID:28098186

Cooperativeness and competitiveness as two distinct constructs: validating the Cooperative and Competitive Personality Scale in a social dilemma context.

PubMed

Lu, Su; Au, Wing-Tung; Jiang, Feng; Xie, Xiaofei; Yam, Paton

2013-01-01

The present research validated the construct and criterion validities of the Cooperative and Competitive Personality Scale (CCPS) in a social dilemma context. The results from three studies supported the notion that cooperativeness and competitiveness are two independent dimensions, challenging the traditional view that they are two ends of a single continuum. First, confirmatory factor analyses revealed that a two-factor structure fit the data significantly better than a one-factor structure. Moreover, cooperativeness and competitiveness were either not significantly correlated (Studies 1 and 3) or only moderately positively correlated (Study 2). Second, cooperativeness and competitiveness were differentially associated with Schwartz's Personal Values. These results further supported the idea that cooperativeness and competitiveness are two distinct constructs. Specifically, the individuals who were highly cooperative emphasized self-transcendent values (i.e., universalism and benevolence) more, whereas the individuals who were highly competitive emphasized self-enhancement values (i.e., power and achievement) more. Finally, the CCPS, which adheres to the trait perspective of personality, was found to be a useful supplement to more prevalent social motive measures (i.e., social value orientation) in predicting cooperative behaviors. Specifically, in Study 2, when social value orientation was controlled for, the CCPS significantly predicted cooperative behaviors in a public goods dilemma (individuals who score higher on cooperativeness scale contributed more to the public goods). In Study 3, when social value orientation was controlled for, the CCPS significantly predicted cooperative behaviors in commons dilemmas (individuals who score higher on cooperativeness scale requested fewer resources from the common resource pool). The practical implications of the CCPS in conflict resolution, as well as in recruitment and selection settings, are discussed.

High-precision predictions for the light CP-even Higgs boson mass of the minimal supersymmetric standard model.

PubMed

Hahn, T; Heinemeyer, S; Hollik, W; Rzehak, H; Weiglein, G

2014-04-11

For the interpretation of the signal discovered in the Higgs searches at the LHC it will be crucial in particular to discriminate between the minimal Higgs sector realized in the standard model (SM) and its most commonly studied extension, the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). The measured mass value, having already reached the level of a precision observable with an experimental accuracy of about 500 MeV, plays an important role in this context. In the MSSM the mass of the light CP-even Higgs boson, Mh, can directly be predicted from the other parameters of the model. The accuracy of this prediction should at least match the one of the experimental result. The relatively high mass value of about 126 GeV has led to many investigations where the scalar top quarks are in the multi-TeV range. We improve the prediction for Mh in the MSSM by combining the existing fixed-order result, comprising the full one-loop and leading and subleading two-loop corrections, with a resummation of the leading and subleading logarithmic contributions from the scalar top sector to all orders. In this way for the first time a high-precision prediction for the mass of the light CP-even Higgs boson in the MSSM is possible all the way up to the multi-TeV region of the relevant supersymmetric particles. The results are included in the code FEYNHIGGS.

Norcocaine in human hair as a biomarker of heavy cocaine use in a high risk population.

PubMed

Poon, S; Gareri, J; Walasek, P; Koren, G

2014-08-01

In hair analysis, cocaine (COC) and its metabolites have been studied relatively extensively with a consistent focus of distinguishing active drug use and excluding external contamination. Although quantitative cut-offs using major metabolite, benzolecgonine (BE), in hair have been proposed to distinguish likely active use from passive exposure, exogenously formed BE may result in false positive tests. Hence, the presence of less commonly detected COC metabolite, norcocaine (NCOC), may be useful in increasing certainty of illicit COC use and evaluating likelihood of environmental contamination. The objective of the present study was to observe the pattern of NCOC detection in a clinical population of suspected users and evaluate the possible role of NCOC in distinguishing systemic exposure from external contamination to COC and assessing intensity of cocaine use. Hair samples collected between January 2011 and May 2013 from the Motherisk Laboratory were analyzed by GC-MS for the presence of COC, BE, and NCOC. NCOC positivity rates (%) for various COC concentration ranges as well as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive values of NCOC as a biomarker of different COC use profiles was calculated. The rate of NCOC positivity (%) within COC concentration ranges (ng/mg) 0.13-0.4 (above LOD, below LOQ), 0.4-3, 3-6, 6-10, 10-14, >14 were 0.26, 4.15, 29.63, 55.85, 80.37, and 94.02, respectively; p<0.0001 for all positivity comparisons between ranges. These results were used to determine a COC cut-off concentration for differing levels of COC use. The presence of NCOC above the LOD of 0.13 ng/mg predicted COC concentrations exceeding 14.00 ng/mg, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.0%, 87.9%, 41.5%, and 99.4%, respectively. The presence NCOC above the LOD of 0.13 ng/mg predicted COC concentrations exceeding the 75th percentile, with sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 76.6%, 94.7%, 74.7%, and 95.2%, respectively. Despite an inability to definitively rule out external contamination, the presence of NCOC in hair is strongly associated with elevated COC levels and performs as a highly specific surrogate marker for frequent/intensive cocaine use and highly sensitive marker for intensive/daily use of cocaine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

What Protects Rejected Adolescents from Also Being Bullied by Their Peers? The Moderating Role of Peer-Valued Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knack, Jennifer M.; Tsar, Vasilinka; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Hymel, Shelley; McDougall, Patricia

2012-01-01

Adolescents rejected by peers are often targets of bullying. However, peer rejection is not a sure path to victimization. We examined whether characteristics valued by peers (i.e., attractiveness, wealth, academic, and athletic ability) moderated the relationship between peer rejection and victimization. We predicted rejected adolescents high on…

High Self-Control Predicts More Positive Emotions, Better Engagement, and Higher Achievement in School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Ronnel B.; Gaerlan, Marianne Jennifer M.

2014-01-01

The control-value theory of academic emotions has emerged as a useful framework for studying the antecedents and consequences of different emotions in school. This framework focuses on the role of control-related and value-related appraisals as proximal antecedents of emotions. In this study, we take an individual differences approach to examine…

Cucumber cultivars for container gardening and the value of field trials for predicting Cucumber performance in containers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) is one of the most popular vegetable crops grown in U.S. home and urban gardens. The objectives of this study were to identify cultivars and planting densities for high yield of container-grown cucumbers. Additional objectives were to determine the value of field trials...

A prospective analysis of physical examination findings in the diagnosis of facial fractures: Determining predictive value

PubMed Central

Timashpolsky, Alisa; Dagum, Alexander B; Sayeed, Syed M; Romeiser, Jamie L; Rosenfeld, Elisheva A; Conkling, Nicole

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND There are >150,000 patient visits per year to emergency rooms for facial trauma. The reliability of a computed tomography (CT) scan has made it the primary modality for diagnosing facial skeletal injury, with the physical examination playing more a cursory role. Knowing the predictive value of physical findings in facial skeletal injuries may enable more appropriate use of imaging and health care resources. OBJECTIVE A blinded prospective study was undertaken to assess the predictive value of physical examination findings in detecting maxillofacial fracture in trauma patients, and in determining whether a patient will require surgical intervention. METHODS Over a four-month period, the authors’ team examined patients admitted with facial trauma to the emergency department of their hospital. The evaluating physician completed a standardized physical examination evaluation form indicating the physical findings. Corresponding CT scans and surgical records were then reviewed, and the results recorded by a plastic surgeon who was blinded to the results of the physical examination. RESULTS A total of 57 patients met the inclusion criteria; there were 44 male and 13 female patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of grouped physical examination findings were determined in major areas. In further analysis, specific examination findings with n≥9 (15%) were also reported. CONCLUSIONS The data demonstrated a high negative predictive value of at least 90% for orbital floor, zygomatic, mandibular and nasal bone fractures compared with CT scan. Furthermore, none of the patients who did not have a physical examination finding for a particular facial fracture required surgery for that fracture. Thus, the instrument performed well at ruling out fractures in these areas when there were none. Ultimately, these results may help reduce unnecessary radiation and costly imaging in patients with facial trauma without facial fractures. PMID:27441188

Predictive performance of the human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT) for lipophilic chemicals with high octanol-water partition coefficients.

PubMed

Takenouchi, Osamu; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Saito, Kazutoshi; Ashikaga, Takao; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi

2013-01-01

To meet the urgent need for a reliable alternative test for predicting skin sensitizing potential of many chemicals, we have developed a cell-based in vitro test, human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT). However, the predictive performance for lipophilic chemicals in the h-CLAT still remains relatively unknown. Moreover, it's suggested that low water solubility of chemicals might induce false negative outcomes. Thus, in this study, we tested relatively low water soluble 37 chemicals with log Kow values above and below 3.5 in the h-CLAT. The small-scale assessment resulted in nine false negative outcomes for chemicals with log Kow values greater than 3.5. We then created a dataset of 143 chemicals by combining the existing dataset of 106 chemicals and examined the predictive performance of the h-CLAT for chemicals with a log Kow of less than 3.5; a total of 112 chemicals from the 143 chemicals in the dataset. The sensitivity and overall accuracy for the 143 chemicals were 83% and 80%, respectively. In contrast, sensitivity and overall accuracy for the 112 chemicals with log Kow values below 3.5 improved to 94% and 88%, respectively. These data suggested that the h-CLAT could successfully detect sensitizers with log Kow values up to 3.5. When chemicals with log Kow values greater than 3.5 that were deemed positive by h-CLAT were included with the 112 chemicals, the sensitivity and accuracy in terms of the resulting applicable 128 chemicals out of the 143 chemicals became 95% and 88%, respectively. The use of log Kow values gave the h-CLAT a higher predictive performance. Our results demonstrated that the h-CLAT could predict sensitizing potential of various chemicals, which contain lipophilic chemicals using a large-scale chemical dataset.

Defining probabilities of bowel resection in deep endometriosis of the rectum: Prediction with preoperative magnetic resonance imaging.

PubMed

Perandini, Alessio; Perandini, Simone; Montemezzi, Stefania; Bonin, Cecilia; Bellini, Gaia; Bergamini, Valentino

2018-02-01

Deep endometriosis of the rectum is a highly challenging disease, and a surgical approach is often needed to restore anatomy and function. Two kinds of surgeries may be performed: radical with segmental bowel resection or conservative without resection. Most patients undergo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before surgery, but there is currently no method to predict if conservative surgery is feasible or whether bowel resection is required. The aim of this study was to create an algorithm that could predict bowel resection using MRI images, that was easy to apply and could be useful in a clinical setting, in order to adequately discuss informed consent with the patient and plan the an appropriate and efficient surgical session. We collected medical records from 2010 to 2016 and reviewed the MRI results of 52 patients to detect any parameters that could predict bowel resection. Parameters that were reproducible and with a significant correlation to radical surgery were investigated by statistical regression and combined in an algorithm to give the best prediction of resection. The calculation of two parameters in MRI, impact angle and lesion size, and their use in a mathematical algorithm permit us to predict bowel resection with a positive predictive value of 87% and a negative predictive value of 83%. MRI could be of value in predicting the need for bowel resection in deep endometriosis of the rectum. Further research is required to assess the possibility of a wider application of this algorithm outside our single-center study. © 2017 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Single-energy non-contrast hepatic steatosis criteria applied to virtual non-contrast images: is it still highly specific and positively predictive?

PubMed

Haji-Momenian, S; Parkinson, W; Khati, N; Brindle, K; Earls, J; Zeman, R K

2018-06-01

To determine the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of single-energy non-contrast hepatic steatosis criteria on dual-energy virtual non-contrast (VNC) images. Forty-eight computed tomography (CT) examinations, which included single-energy non-contrast (TNC) and contrast-enhanced dual-energy CT angiography (CTA) of the abdomen, were enrolled. VNC images were reconstructed from the CTA. Region of interest (ROI) attenuations were measured in the right and left hepatic lobes, spleen, and aorta on TNC and VNC images. The right and left hepatic lobes were treated as separate samples. Steatosis was diagnosed based on TNC liver attenuation of ≤40 HU or liver attenuation index (LAI) of ≤-10 HU, which are extremely specific and predictive for moderate to severe steatosis. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of VNC images for steatosis were calculated. VNC-TNC deviations were correlated with aortic enhancement and patient water equivalent diameter (PWED). Thirty-two liver ROIs met steatosis criteria based on TNC attenuation; VNC attenuation had sensitivity, specificity, and a positive predictive value of 66.7%, 100%, and 100%, respectively. Twenty-one liver ROIs met steatosis criteria based on TNC LAI. VNC LAI had sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values of 61.9%, 90.7%, and 65%, respectively. Hepatic and splenic VNC-TNC deviations did not correlate with one another (R 2 =0.08), aortic enhancement (R 2 <0.06) or PWED (R 2 <0.09). Non-contrast hepatic attenuation criteria is extremely specific and positively predictive for moderate to severe steatosis on VNC reconstructions from the arterial phase. Hepatic attenuation performs better than LAI criteria. VNC deviations are independent of aortic enhancement and PWED. Copyright © 2018 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of pulse pressure variation for fluid responsiveness in septic patients using lung-protective ventilation strategies.

PubMed

Freitas, F G R; Bafi, A T; Nascente, A P M; Assunção, M; Mazza, B; Azevedo, L C P; Machado, F R

2013-03-01

The applicability of pulse pressure variation (ΔPP) to predict fluid responsiveness using lung-protective ventilation strategies is uncertain in clinical practice. We designed this study to evaluate the accuracy of this parameter in predicting the fluid responsiveness of septic patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (TV) (6 ml kg(-1)). Forty patients after the resuscitation phase of severe sepsis and septic shock who were mechanically ventilated with 6 ml kg(-1) were included. The ΔPP was obtained automatically at baseline and after a standardized fluid challenge (7 ml kg(-1)). Patients whose cardiac output increased by more than 15% were considered fluid responders. The predictive values of ΔPP and static variables [right atrial pressure (RAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP)] were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Thirty-four patients had characteristics consistent with acute lung injury or acute respiratory distress syndrome and were ventilated with high levels of PEEP [median (inter-quartile range) 10.0 (10.0-13.5)]. Nineteen patients were considered fluid responders. The RAP and PAOP significantly increased, and ΔPP significantly decreased after volume expansion. The ΔPP performance [ROC curve area: 0.91 (0.82-1.0)] was better than that of the RAP [ROC curve area: 0.73 (0.59-0.90)] and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure [ROC curve area: 0.58 (0.40-0.76)]. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the best cut-off for ΔPP was 6.5%, with a sensitivity of 0.89, specificity of 0.90, positive predictive value of 0.89, and negative predictive value of 0.90. Automatized ΔPP accurately predicted fluid responsiveness in septic patients ventilated with low TV.

Comparing Weighted and Unweighted Grade Point Averages in Predicting College Success of Diverse and Low-Income College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warne, Russell T.; Nagaishi, Chanel; Slade, Michael K.; Hermesmeyer, Paul; Peck, Elizabeth Kimberli

2014-01-01

While research has shown the statistical significance of high school grade point averages (HSGPAs) in predicting future academic outcomes, the systems with which HSGPAs are calculated vary drastically across schools. Some schools employ unweighted grades that carry the same point value regardless of the course in which they are earned; other…

GPA as a Predictor of Helpful Behavior: An Accounting Student Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyons, Paul; Bandura, Randall P.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of student grade point average (GPA) as a predictor of pro-social, helpful behavior. This voluntary behavior has been shown to be highly valuable to managers and co-workers. GPA is not only predictive of success in core tasks on the job, it is also predictive of voluntary, helpful…

Noninvasive prenatal screening for fetal trisomies 21, 18, 13 and the common sex chromosome aneuploidies from maternal blood using massively parallel genomic sequencing of DNA.

PubMed

Porreco, Richard P; Garite, Thomas J; Maurel, Kimberly; Marusiak, Barbara; Ehrich, Mathias; van den Boom, Dirk; Deciu, Cosmin; Bombard, Allan

2014-10-01

The objective of this study was to validate the clinical performance of massively parallel genomic sequencing of cell-free deoxyribonucleic acid contained in specimens from pregnant women at high risk for fetal aneuploidy to test fetuses for trisomies 21, 18, and 13; fetal sex; and the common sex chromosome aneuploidies (45, X; 47, XXX; 47, XXY; 47, XYY). This was a prospective multicenter observational study of pregnant women at high risk for fetal aneuploidy who had made the decision to pursue invasive testing for prenatal diagnosis. Massively parallel single-read multiplexed sequencing of cell-free deoxyribonucleic acid was performed in maternal blood for aneuploidy detection. Data analysis was completed using sequence reads unique to the chromosomes of interest. A total of 3430 patients were analyzed for demographic characteristics and medical history. There were 137 fetuses with trisomy 21, 39 with trisomy 18, and 16 with trisomy 13 for a prevalence rate of the common autosomal trisomies of 5.8%. There were no false-negative results for trisomy 21, 3 for trisomy 18, and 2 for trisomy 13; all 3 false-positive results were for trisomy 21. The positive predictive values for trisomies 18 and 13 were 100% and 97.9% for trisomy 21. A total of 8.6% of the pregnancies were 21 weeks or beyond; there were no aneuploid fetuses in this group. All 15 of the common sex chromosome aneuploidies in this population were identified, although there were 11 false-positive results for 45,X. Taken together, the positive predictive value for the sex chromosome aneuploidies was 48.4% and the negative predictive value was 100%. Our prospective study demonstrates that noninvasive prenatal analysis of cell-free deoxyribonucleic acid from maternal plasma is an accurate advanced screening test with extremely high sensitivity and specificity for trisomy 21 (>99%) but with less sensitivity for trisomies 18 and 13. Despite high sensitivity, there was modest positive predictive value for the small number of common sex chromosome aneuploidies because of their very low prevalence rate. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Diagnostic Accuracy Study of Xpert®MTB/RIF in HIV-Positive Patients with High Clinical Suspicion of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Carriquiry, Gabriela; Otero, Larissa; González-Lagos, Elsa; Zamudio, Carlos; Sánchez, Eduardo; Nabeta, Pamela; Campos, Miguel; Echevarría, Juan; Seas, Carlos; Gotuzzo, Eduardo

2012-01-01

Background Diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients remains complex and demands easy to perform and accurate tests. Xpert®MTB/RIF (MTB/RIF) is a molecular TB diagnostic test which is rapid and convenient; the test requires minimal human resources and reports results within two hours. The majority of performance studies of MTB/RIF have been performed in high HIV burden settings, thus TB diagnostic studies among HIV patients in low HIV prevalence settings such as Peru are still needed. Methodology/Principal Findings From April 2010 to May 2011, HIV-positive patients with high clinical suspicion of TB were enrolled from two tertiary hospitals in Lima, Peru. Detection of TB by MTB/RIF was compared to a composite reference standard Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) and liquid culture. Detection of rifampicin resistance was compared to the LJ proportion method. We included 131 patients, the median CD4 cell count was 154.5 cells/mm3 and 45 (34.4%) had TB. For TB detection among HIV patients, sensitivity of MTB/RIF was 97.8% (95% CI 88.4–99.6) (44/45); specificity was 97.7% (95% CI 91.9–99.4) (84/86); the positive predictive value was 95.7% (95% CI 85.5–98.8) (44/46); and the negative predictive value, 98.8% (95% CI 93.6–99.8) (84/85). MTB/RIF detected 13/14 smear-negative TB cases, outperforming smear microscopy [97.8% (44/45) vs. 68.9% (31/45); p = 0.0002]. For rifampicin resistance detection, sensitivity of MTB/RIF was 100% (95% CI 61.0–100.0) (6/6); specificity was 91.0% (95% CI 76.4–96.9) (30/33); the positive predictive value was 66.7% (95% CI 35.4–87.9) (6/9); and the negative predictive value was 100% (95% CI 88.7 –100.0) (30/30). Conclusions/Significance In HIV patients in our population with a high clinical suspicion of TB, MTB/RIF performed well for TB diagnosis and outperformed smear microscopy. PMID:22970271

Impact of Genomics Platform and Statistical Filtering on Transcriptional Benchmark Doses (BMD) and Multiple Approaches for Selection of Chemical Point of Departure (PoD)

PubMed Central

Webster, A. Francina; Chepelev, Nikolai; Gagné, Rémi; Kuo, Byron; Recio, Leslie; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L.

2015-01-01

Many regulatory agencies are exploring ways to integrate toxicogenomic data into their chemical risk assessments. The major challenge lies in determining how to distill the complex data produced by high-content, multi-dose gene expression studies into quantitative information. It has been proposed that benchmark dose (BMD) values derived from toxicogenomics data be used as point of departure (PoD) values in chemical risk assessments. However, there is limited information regarding which genomics platforms are most suitable and how to select appropriate PoD values. In this study, we compared BMD values modeled from RNA sequencing-, microarray-, and qPCR-derived gene expression data from a single study, and explored multiple approaches for selecting a single PoD from these data. The strategies evaluated include several that do not require prior mechanistic knowledge of the compound for selection of the PoD, thus providing approaches for assessing data-poor chemicals. We used RNA extracted from the livers of female mice exposed to non-carcinogenic (0, 2 mg/kg/day, mkd) and carcinogenic (4, 8 mkd) doses of furan for 21 days. We show that transcriptional BMD values were consistent across technologies and highly predictive of the two-year cancer bioassay-based PoD. We also demonstrate that filtering data based on statistically significant changes in gene expression prior to BMD modeling creates more conservative BMD values. Taken together, this case study on mice exposed to furan demonstrates that high-content toxicogenomics studies produce robust data for BMD modelling that are minimally affected by inter-technology variability and highly predictive of cancer-based PoD doses. PMID:26313361

The Predictive Effects of Early Pregnancy Lipid Profiles and Fasting Glucose on the Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Stratified by Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Wang, Chen; Zhu, Weiwei; Wei, Yumei; Su, Rina; Feng, Hui; Lin, Li; Yang, Huixia

2016-01-01

This study aimed at evaluating the predictive effects of early pregnancy lipid profiles and fasting glucose on the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in patients stratified by prepregnancy body mass index (p-BMI) and to determine the optimal cut-off values of each indicator for different p-BMI ranges. A retrospective system cluster sampling survey was conducted in Beijing during 2013 and a total of 5,265 singleton pregnancies without prepregnancy diabetes were included. The information for each participant was collected individually using questionnaires and medical records. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operator characteristics analysis were used in the analysis. Outcomes showed that potential markers for the prediction of GDM include early pregnancy lipid profiles (cholesterol, triacylglycerols, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratios [LDL-C/HDL-C], and triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratios [TG/HDL-C]) and fasting glucose, of which fasting glucose level was the most accurate indicator. Furthermore, the predictive effects and cut-off values for these factors varied according to p-BMI. Thus, p-BMI should be a consideration for the risk assessment of pregnant patients for GDM development.

Predicting influent biochemical oxygen demand: Balancing energy demand and risk management.

PubMed

Zhu, Jun-Jie; Kang, Lulu; Anderson, Paul R

2018-01-01

Ready access to comprehensive influent information can help water reclamation plant (WRP) operators implement better real-time process controls, provide operational reliability and reduce energy consumption. The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD 5 ), a critical parameter for WRP process control, is expensive and difficult to measure using hard-sensors. An alternative approach based on a soft-sensor methodology shows promise, but can be problematic when used to predict high BOD 5 values. Underestimating high BOD 5 concentrations for process control could result in an insufficient amount of aeration, increasing the risk of an effluent violation. To address this issue, we tested a hierarchical hybrid soft-sensor approach involving multiple linear regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), and compromise programming. While this hybrid approach results in a slight decrease in overall prediction accuracy relative to the approach based on ANN only, the underestimation percentage is substantially lower (37% vs. 61%) for predictions of carbonaceous BOD 5 (CBOD 5 ) concentrations higher than the long-term average value. The hybrid approach is also flexible and can be adjusted depending on the relative importance between energy savings and managing the risk of an effluent violation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive and prognostic value of PET/CT imaging post-chemoradiotherapy and clinical decision-making consequences in locally advanced head & neck squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Kim, Ryul; Ock, Chan-Young; Keam, Bhumsuk; Kim, Tae Min; Kim, Jin Ho; Paeng, Jin Chul; Kwon, Seong Keun; Hah, J Hun; Kwon, Tack-Kyun; Kim, Dong-Wan; Wu, Hong-Gyun; Sung, Myung-Whun; Heo, Dae Seog

2016-02-17

The accuracy of (18)F-fluorodeoxygluocose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in predicting immediate failure after radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for HNSCC is poorly characterized at present. The purpose of this study was to examine PET/CT as a predictive and prognostic gauge of immediate failure after CRT and determine the impact of these studies on clinical decision making in terms of salvage surgery. Medical records of 78 consecutive patients receiving radical CRT for locally advanced HNSCC were reviewed, analyzing PET/CTs done before and 3 months after CRT. Immediate failure was defined as residual disease or locoregional and/or systemic relapse within 6 months after CRT. Maximum standard uptake value (SUV) of post CRT PET/CT (postSUVmax) was found optimal for predicting immediate failure at a cutpoint of 4.4. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) were 90.0%, 83.8%, 98.3%, and 45.0%, respectively. Of 78 patients studied, postSUVmax ≥ 4.4 prevailed in 20 (25.6%), with postSUVmax <4.4 in 58 (74.4%). At postSUVmax ≥ 4.4 (vs. postSUVmax <4.4) OS was poorer by comparison (3-year OS: 56.9 vs. 87.7%; P = 0.005), as was progression-free survival (3-year PFS: 42.9 vs. 81.1%; P < 0.001). At postSUVmax ≥ 4.4, OS with and without immediate salvage surgery did not differ significantly (3-year OS: 60.0 vs. 55.6%; Log-rank P = 0.913). Post CRT PET/CT imaging has prognostic value in terms of OS and PFS and is useful in predicting immediate therapeutic failure, given its high NPV. However, OS was not significantly altered by early salvage surgery done on the basis of post CRT PET/CT findings.

Computational Simulation of the High Strain Rate Tensile Response of Polymer Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.

2002-01-01

A research program is underway to develop strain rate dependent deformation and failure models for the analysis of polymer matrix composites subject to high strain rate impact loads. Under these types of loading conditions, the material response can be highly strain rate dependent and nonlinear. State variable constitutive equations based on a viscoplasticity approach have been developed to model the deformation of the polymer matrix. The constitutive equations are then combined with a mechanics of materials based micromechanics model which utilizes fiber substructuring to predict the effective mechanical and thermal response of the composite. To verify the analytical model, tensile stress-strain curves are predicted for a representative composite over strain rates ranging from around 1 x 10(exp -5)/sec to approximately 400/sec. The analytical predictions compare favorably to experimentally obtained values both qualitatively and quantitatively. Effective elastic and thermal constants are predicted for another composite, and compared to finite element results.

X-ray requesting patterns before and after introduction of the Ottawa Knee Rules in a UK emergency department.

PubMed

Atkinson, Paul; Boyle, Adrian; Chisholm, Edward

2004-08-01

To compare knee radiology requesting rates among junior doctors before and after the formal introduction of the Ottawa Knee Rules (OKR) in a UK emergency department (ED), and to test the validity of the OKR for decisions on the use of radiography for acute, isolated knee injuries. All junior doctors in a district general hospital ED seeing adult patients with isolated knee injuries completed a questionnaire before and after the introduction of the OKR. All patients were followed up to obtain a final diagnosis. The outcome measures were: adherence to the OKR, the presence of a fracture and whether a radiograph had been requested. The results were analysed to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the OKR. Comparisons between the request rate for knee radiography before and after the introduction of the OKR were made. A total of 130 patients were enrolled and followed up over a 3-month period; 58 before and 72 after OKR introduction. The OKR had a sensitivity of 100% (71.8-100%), a specificity of 55.1% (46.1-64.1%), a positive predictive value of 18.5% (9.03-27.9%) and a negative predictive value of 100% (87.8-100%) for the detection of bony injury. The introduction of the OKR did not result in a significant reduction in the number of radiographs performed (58.6-55.6%; P= 0.726). This study shows the OKR to be a highly sensitive clinical guide with a high negative predictive value in the setting of a UK ED. It suggests that the reduction in radiograph requests seen elsewhere may not be as apparent in this setting.

Accuracy of a Mouse Bioassay for the Diagnosis of Botulism in Horses.

PubMed

Johnson, A L; McAdams-Gallagher, S C; Aceto, H

2016-07-01

The laboratory diagnosis of botulism in horses traditionally has relied upon the mouse bioassay (MBA). The accuracy of this test for the diagnosis of botulism in horses is unknown. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the MBA on laboratory-processed fecal and gastrointestinal samples for foals and adult horses. Cases included all horses with a final clinical diagnosis of botulism that were admitted between 1986 and 2011 and had MBA testing performed. Controls included horses without botulism that were admitted during the same time period and had MBA testing performed. Retrospective study. Horses suspected of having botulism had fecal or (less commonly) gastrointestinal content samples tested using MBA. For every hospitalized botulism suspect, control samples were obtained from ≥1 additional hospitalized horses not suspected to have botulism. One hundred and twenty-nine adult horses and 253 adult controls were identified. Overall sensitivity of the MBA was only 32% but specificity was 97%. Forty-three foal cases and 21 foal controls were evaluated; sensitivity of the MBA was 53% and specificity was 100%. Positive predictive value was substantially higher (100% for foals and 89% for adults) than negative predictive value (51% for foals and 67% for adults). Mouse bioassay has low sensitivity but high specificity for the diagnosis of botulism in horses. Positive results are highly suggestive of botulism but negative results do not exclude the diagnosis. Unaffected horses and foals rarely shed C. botulinum in their feces. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

[Preoperative CT Scan in middle ear cholesteatoma].

PubMed

Sethom, Anissa; Akkari, Khemaies; Dridi, Inès; Tmimi, S; Mardassi, Ali; Benzarti, Sonia; Miled, Imed; Chebbi, Mohamed Kamel

2011-03-01

To compare preoperative CT scan finding and per-operative lesions in patients operated for middle ear cholesteatoma, A retrospective study including 60 patients with cholesteatoma otitis diagnosed and treated within a period of 5 years, from 2001 to 2005, at ENT department of Military Hospital of Tunis. All patients had computed tomography of the middle and inner ear. High resolution CT scan imaging was performed using millimetric incidences (3 to 5 millimetres). All patients had surgical removal of their cholesteatoma using down wall technic. We evaluated sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of CT-scan comparing otitic damages and CT finding, in order to examine the real contribution of computed tomography in cholesteatoma otitis. CT scan analysis of middle ear bone structures shows satisfaction (with 83% of sensibility). The rate of sensibility decrease (63%) for the tympanic raff. Predictive value of CT scan for the diagnosis of cholesteatoma was low. However, we have noticed an excellent sensibility in the analysis of ossicular damages (90%). Comparative frontal incidence seems to be less sensible for the detection of facial nerve lesions (42%). But when evident on CT scan findings, lesions of facial nerve were usually observed preoperatively (spécificity 78%). Predictive value of computed tomography for the diagnosis of perilymphatic fistulae (FL) was low. In fact, CT scan imaging have showed FL only for four patients among eight. Best results can be obtained if using inframillimetric incidences with performed high resolution computed tomography. Preoperative computed tomography is necessary for the diagnosis and the evaluation of chronic middle ear cholesteatoma in order to show extending lesion and to detect complications. This CT analysis and surgical correlation have showed that sensibility, specificity and predictive value of CT-scan depend on the anatomic structure implicated in cholesteatoma damages.

[Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

PubMed

Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

2016-10-13

The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling. Diagnostic test studies conducted on a sample of children of medium-high socioeconomic level were evaluated using ASQ at least once at 8, 18 and/or 30 months old, and later, between 6 and 9 years old, reevaluated using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-third edition (WISC-III). Each ASQ evaluation was recorded independently. WISC-III was standardized, considering underperformance when the total score were under -1 standard deviation RESULTS: 123 children, corresponding to 174 ASQ assessments (42 of them were 8 months old, 55 were 18 months and 77 were 30 months of age) were included. An area under the ROC curve of 80.7% was obtained, showing higher values at 8 months (98.0%) compared to 18 and 30 months old (78.1 and 79.3%, respectively). Considering different ASQ scoring criteria, a low sensitivity (27.8 to 50.0%), but a high specificity (78.8 to 96.2%) were obtained; the positive predictive value ranged between 21 and 46%, while the negative value was 92.0-93.2%. ASQ has low sensitivity but excellent specificity to predict a low cognitive performance during the first years of schooling, being a good alternative to monitor psychomotor development in children who attend the private sector healthcare in our country. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Etiologic predictive value of a rapid immunoassay for the detection of group A Streptococcus antigen from throat swabs in patients presenting with a sore throat.

PubMed

Orda, Ulrich; Gunnarsson, Ronny; Orda, Sabine; Fitzgerald, Mark; Rofe, Geoff; Dargan, Anna

2016-04-01

Clinical reasoning utilizing certain symptoms and scores has not proven to be a reliable decision-making tool to determine whether or not to suspect a group A Streptococcus (GAS) infection in the patient presenting with a sore throat. Culture as the so-called 'gold standard' is impracticable because it takes 1 to 2 days (and even longer in remote locations) for a result, and thus treatment decisions will be made without the result available. Rapid diagnostic antigen tests have demonstrated sufficient sensitivities and specificities in detecting GAS antigens to identify GAS throat infections. Throat swab samples were collected from patients attending the Mount Isa Hospital emergency department for a sore throat; these samples were compared to swab samples collected from healthy controls who did not have a sore throat. Both groups were aged 3-15 years. All swab samples were analyzed with a point-of-care test (Alere Test Pack +Plus with OBC Strep A). The etiologic predictive value (EPV) of the throat swab was calculated. The 95% confidence interval for positive EPV was 88-100% and for negative EPV was 97-99%, depending on assumptions made. This study demonstrates that the point-of-care test Alere Test Pack +Plus Strep A has a high positive predictive value and is able to rule in GAS infection as long as the proportion of carriers is low. Also the negative predictive value for ruling out GAS as the etiologic agent is very high irrespective of the carrier rate. Hence, this test is always useful to rule out GAS infection. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

High FIB-4 index as an independent risk factor of prevalent chronic kidney disease in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Xu, Huang-Wei; Hsu, Yung-Chien; Chang, Chia-Hao; Wei, Kuo-Liang; Lin, Chun-Liang

2016-03-01

Growing evidence suggests that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is linked to an increased risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD); liver fibrosis with biopsy-proven NAFLD has also been shown to associate with an increased risk of CKD. This study compares the diagnostic performance of simple noninvasive tests in identifying prevalent CKD among individuals with ultrasonography-diagnosed NAFLD. A total of 755 with ultrasonography-diagnosed NAFLD were included. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and noninvasive markers for hepatic fibrosis: aspartate transaminase to alanine transaminase ratio (AAR), aspartate transaminase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4 score, NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and BARD score were assessed. Binary logistic regression to generate a propensity score and receiver operating characteristic curves were developed for each of the noninvasive markers for predicting CKD, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was greatest for FIB-4 score (0.750), followed by NFS (0.710), AAR (0.594), APRI (0.587), and BARD score (0.561). A cut-off value of 1.100 for FIB-4 score gave a sensitivity of 68.85% and a specificity of 71.07% for predicting CKD. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 37.50 and 90.05%, respectively. In multiple logistic regression analysis, only FIB-4 score ≧1.100 (OR 2.660, 95% CI 1.201-5.889; p = .016), older age, higher diastolic blood pressure and higher uric acid were independent predictors of CKD. High noninvasive fibrosis score is associated with an increased risk of prevalent CKD; the FIB-4 is the better predictor. With a cut-off value of 1.100 for FIB-4, it is useful in excluding the presence of CKD in patients with NAFLD.

SOS score: an optimized score to screen acute stroke patients for obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Camilo, Millene R; Sander, Heidi H; Eckeli, Alan L; Fernandes, Regina M F; Dos Santos-Pontelli, Taiza E G; Leite, Joao P; Pontes-Neto, Octavio M

2014-09-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is frequent in acute stroke patients, and has been associated with higher mortality and worse prognosis. Polysomnography (PSG) is the gold standard diagnostic method for OSA, but it is impracticable as a routine for all acute stroke patients. We evaluated the accuracy of two OSA screening tools, the Berlin Questionnaire (BQ), and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) when administered to relatives of acute stroke patients; we also compared these tools against a combined screening score (SOS score). Ischemic stroke patients were submitted to a full PSG at the first night after onset of symptoms. OSA severity was measured by apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). BQ and ESS were administered to relatives of stroke patients before the PSG and compared to SOS score for accuracy and C-statistics. We prospectively studied 39 patients. OSA (AHI ≥10/h) was present in 76.9%. The SOS score [area under the curve (AUC): 0.812; P = 0.005] and ESS (AUC: 0.789; P = 0.009) had good predictive value for OSA. The SOS score was the only tool with significant predictive value (AUC: 0.686; P = 0.048) for severe OSA (AHI ≥30/h), when compared to ESS (P = 0.119) and BQ (P = 0.191). The threshold of SOS ≤10 showed high sensitivity (90%) and negative predictive value (96.2%) for OSA; SOS ≥20 showed high specificity (100%) and positive predictive value (92.5%) for severe OSA. The SOS score administered to relatives of stroke patients is a useful tool to screen for OSA and may decrease the need for PSG in acute stroke setting. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human reinforcement learning subdivides structured action spaces by learning effector-specific values

PubMed Central

Gershman, Samuel J.; Pesaran, Bijan; Daw, Nathaniel D.

2009-01-01

Humans and animals are endowed with a large number of effectors. Although this enables great behavioral flexibility, it presents an equally formidable reinforcement learning problem of discovering which actions are most valuable, due to the high dimensionality of the action space. An unresolved question is how neural systems for reinforcement learning – such as prediction error signals for action valuation associated with dopamine and the striatum – can cope with this “curse of dimensionality.” We propose a reinforcement learning framework that allows for learned action valuations to be decomposed into effector-specific components when appropriate to a task, and test it by studying to what extent human behavior and BOLD activity can exploit such a decomposition in a multieffector choice task. Subjects made simultaneous decisions with their left and right hands and received separate reward feedback for each hand movement. We found that choice behavior was better described by a learning model that decomposed the values of bimanual movements into separate values for each effector, rather than a traditional model that treated the bimanual actions as unitary with a single value. A decomposition of value into effector-specific components was also observed in value-related BOLD signaling, in the form of lateralized biases in striatal correlates of prediction error and anticipatory value correlates in the intraparietal sulcus. These results suggest that the human brain can use decomposed value representations to “divide and conquer” reinforcement learning over high-dimensional action spaces. PMID:19864565

Human reinforcement learning subdivides structured action spaces by learning effector-specific values.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Pesaran, Bijan; Daw, Nathaniel D

2009-10-28

Humans and animals are endowed with a large number of effectors. Although this enables great behavioral flexibility, it presents an equally formidable reinforcement learning problem of discovering which actions are most valuable because of the high dimensionality of the action space. An unresolved question is how neural systems for reinforcement learning-such as prediction error signals for action valuation associated with dopamine and the striatum-can cope with this "curse of dimensionality." We propose a reinforcement learning framework that allows for learned action valuations to be decomposed into effector-specific components when appropriate to a task, and test it by studying to what extent human behavior and blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) activity can exploit such a decomposition in a multieffector choice task. Subjects made simultaneous decisions with their left and right hands and received separate reward feedback for each hand movement. We found that choice behavior was better described by a learning model that decomposed the values of bimanual movements into separate values for each effector, rather than a traditional model that treated the bimanual actions as unitary with a single value. A decomposition of value into effector-specific components was also observed in value-related BOLD signaling, in the form of lateralized biases in striatal correlates of prediction error and anticipatory value correlates in the intraparietal sulcus. These results suggest that the human brain can use decomposed value representations to "divide and conquer" reinforcement learning over high-dimensional action spaces.

Prediction of tumor mutation burden in breast cancer based on the expression of ER, PR, HER-2, and Ki-67.

PubMed

Xu, Junnan; Guo, Xiangyu; Jing, Mingxi; Sun, Tao

2018-01-01

Cancer immunoediting is the process of eliminating highly immunogenic tumor cells by somatic evolution and protecting the host from tumor development in the host immune system. Frequencies of somatic mutations or tumor mutation burden (TMB) were associated with immunogenicity of breast cancer. This study aimed to predict the level of TMB in patients with breast cancer by the expression of estrogen (ER), progesterone (PR), HER-2, and Ki-67, thereby anticipating the prognosis of patients and the possible response to immunotherapy. In 53 patients with breast cancer, the 453 multigenes panel based on NGS was used to determine the TMB value of breast cancer in the patient's primary tumor tissues. The predicted TMB value was divided into 4 groups: A (0-3.33), B (3.33-5.56), C (5.56-8.89), and D (>8.89), according to the quartile method, with group A as reference level. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk ratio of each molecule type, and the prediction model was established. Survival probabilities by covariates were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimator survival analysis and Cox's proportional hazards models. In 53 patients, the TMB value measured by the NGS polygenic panel was between 0 and 14.4/Mb. TMB distribution in 53 cases of breast cancer tissue: 18 cases in A group, 22 cases in B group, 10 cases in C group, and 3 cases in D group. HER-2 expression positivity was significantly associated with TMB (HER-2 positive vs HER-2 negative, odds ratio [OR] =34.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.711-821.689, P =0.0065). Higher TMB was distributed in the patients who were Ki-67 expression positive (>14%) than those who were Ki-67 expression negative (≤14%) (OR =0.217, 95% CI: 0.054-0.806, P =0.0242). However, no significant differences of TMB were found between ER-positive group and ER-negative group (OR =3.133, 95% CI: 0.124-127.687, P =0.4954) and between PR-positive group and PR-negative group in terms of TMB (OR =1.702, 95% CI: 0.162-20.335, P =0.6492). The predicted model is TMB = -1.14×ER +0.53×PR +3.55×HER-2-1.53×Ki-67+ CONSTANT (INTERCEPT). Patients with low TMB had a better disease-free survival (DFS) than those with high TMB (83 vs 59 m, P =0.002). In a multivariate analysis, high TMB (>5.56) was an independent predictive factor for decreased DFS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 5.594; 95% CI: 1.694-18.473; P = 0.005). The preliminary results suggest that the level of TMB value in patients with breast cancer can be predicted based on the expression levels of ER, PR, HER-2, and Ki-67, which may indicate the prognostic and predictive value of immunotherapy in patients with breast cancer.

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

HLA class I expression predicts prognosis and therapeutic benefits from tyrosine kinase inhibitors in metastatic renal-cell carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Wang, Jiajun; Liu, Li; Qu, Yang; Xi, Wei; Xia, Yu; Bai, Qi; Xiong, Ying; Long, Qilai; Xu, Jiejie; Guo, Jianming

2018-01-01

Classical HLA class I antigen is highly involved in antigen presentation and adaptive immune response against tumor. In this study, we explored its predictive value for treatment response and survival in metastatic renal-cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients. A TKI cohort of 111 mRCC patients treated with sunitinib or sorafenib and a non-TKI cohort of 160 mRCC patients treated with interleukin-2 or interferon-α-based immunotherapy at a single institution were retrospectively enrolled. HLA class I expression and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) density was assessed by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. Association between HLA class I and CTL was also assessed in the TCGA KIRC cohort. In the TKI cohort, down-regulated HLA class I was associated with lower objective response rate of TKI therapy (P = 0.004), shorter overall survival (OS) (P = 0.001), and shorter progression free survival (PFS) (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression model defined HLA expression as an independent prognostic factor for both OS [hazard ratio 1.687 (95% CI 1.045-2.724), P = 0.032] and PFS [hazard ratio 2.139 (95% CI 1.376-3.326), P = 0.001]. In the non-TKI cohort, HLA class I was not significantly associated with survival. HLA class I expression was associated with CTL infiltration and function, and its prognostic value was more predominant in CTL high-density tumors (P < 0.001) rather than CTL low-density tumors (P = 0.294). Classical HLA class I expression can serve as a potential predictive biomarker for TKI therapy in mRCC patients. Its predictive value was restricted in CTL high-density tumors. However, further external validations and functional investigations are still required.

High-b-value diffusion-weighted MR imaging for pretreatment prediction and early monitoring of tumor response to therapy in mice.

PubMed

Roth, Yiftach; Tichler, Thomas; Kostenich, Genady; Ruiz-Cabello, Jesus; Maier, Stephan E; Cohen, Jack S; Orenstein, Arie; Mardor, Yael

2004-09-01

To evaluate the use of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging with standard and high b values for pretreatment prediction and early detection of tumor response to various antineoplastic therapies in an animal model. Mice bearing C26 colon carcinoma tumors were treated with doxorubicin (n = 25) and with aminolevulinic acid-based photodynamic therapy (n = 23). Fourteen mice served as controls. Conventional T2-weighted fast spin-echo and diffusion-weighted MR images were acquired once before therapy and at 6, 24, and 48 hours after treatment. Pretreatment and early (1-2 days) posttreatment water diffusion parameters were calculated and compared with later changes in tumor volumes measured on conventional MR images by using the Pearson correlation test. In chemotherapy-treated tumors, a significant correlation (P <.002, r = 0.6) was observed between diffusion parameters that reflected tumor viability, measured prior to treatment, and changes in tumor volumes after therapy. This correlation implies that tumors with high pretreatment viability will respond better to chemotherapy than more necrotic tumors. In tumors treated with photodynamic therapy, no such correlation was found. Changes observed in water diffusion 1-2 days after treatment significantly correlated with later tumor growth rate for both therapies (P <.002, r = 0.54 for photodynamic therapy; P <.0003, r = 0.61 for chemotherapy). High-b-value diffusion-weighted MR imaging has potential use for the early detection of response to therapy and for predicting treatment outcome prior to initiation of chemotherapy. Copyright RSNA, 2004

Predictive Value of Triglyceride Glucose Index for the Risk of Incident Diabetes: A 4-Year Retrospective Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Lee, Da Young; Lee, Eun Seo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Se Eun; Park, Cheol-Young; Oh, Ki-Won; Park, Sung-Woo; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Lee, Won-Young

The Triglyceride Glucose Index (TyG index) is considered a surrogate marker of insulin resistance. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the TyG index has a predictive role in identifying individuals with a high risk of incident diabetes and to compare it with other indicators of metabolic health. A total 2900 non-diabetic adults who attended five consecutive annual health check-ups at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital was divided into four subgroups using three methods: (1) baseline TyG index; (2) obesity status (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and cutoff value of TyG index; (3) obesity status and metabolic health, defined as having fewer than two of the five components of high blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and highest decile of homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance. The development of diabetes was assessed annually using self-questionnaire, fasting glucose, and glycated hemoglobin. We compared the risk of incident diabetes using multivariate Cox analysis. During 11623 person-years there were 101 case of incident diabetes. Subjects with high TyG index had a high risk of diabetes. For TyG index quartiles, hazard ratios (HRs) of quartiles 3 and 4 were 4.06 (p = 0.033) and 5.65 (p = 0.006) respectively. When the subjects were divided by obesity status and cutoff value of TyG index of 8.8, the subgroups with TyG index ≥ 8.8 regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HR 2.40 [p = 0.024] and 2.25 [p = 0.048]). For obesity status and metabolic health, the two metabolically unhealthy subgroups regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HRs 2.54 [p = 0.024] and 2.73 [p = 0.021]). In conclusion, the TyG index measured at a single time point may be an indicator of the risk for incident diabetes. The predictive value of the TyG index was comparable to that of metabolic health.

AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

2014-01-01

High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

An intelligent clinical decision support system for patient-specific predictions to improve cervical intraepithelial neoplasia detection.

PubMed

Bountris, Panagiotis; Haritou, Maria; Pouliakis, Abraham; Margari, Niki; Kyrgiou, Maria; Spathis, Aris; Pappas, Asimakis; Panayiotides, Ioannis; Paraskevaidis, Evangelos A; Karakitsos, Petros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios-Dionyssios

2014-01-01

Nowadays, there are molecular biology techniques providing information related to cervical cancer and its cause: the human Papillomavirus (HPV), including DNA microarrays identifying HPV subtypes, mRNA techniques such as nucleic acid based amplification or flow cytometry identifying E6/E7 oncogenes, and immunocytochemistry techniques such as overexpression of p16. Each one of these techniques has its own performance, limitations and advantages, thus a combinatorial approach via computational intelligence methods could exploit the benefits of each method and produce more accurate results. In this article we propose a clinical decision support system (CDSS), composed by artificial neural networks, intelligently combining the results of classic and ancillary techniques for diagnostic accuracy improvement. We evaluated this method on 740 cases with complete series of cytological assessment, molecular tests, and colposcopy examination. The CDSS demonstrated high sensitivity (89.4%), high specificity (97.1%), high positive predictive value (89.4%), and high negative predictive value (97.1%), for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). In comparison to the tests involved in this study and their combinations, the CDSS produced the most balanced results in terms of sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV. The proposed system may reduce the referral rate for colposcopy and guide personalised management and therapeutic interventions.

An Intelligent Clinical Decision Support System for Patient-Specific Predictions to Improve Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Detection

PubMed Central

Bountris, Panagiotis; Haritou, Maria; Pouliakis, Abraham; Margari, Niki; Kyrgiou, Maria; Spathis, Aris; Pappas, Asimakis; Panayiotides, Ioannis; Paraskevaidis, Evangelos A.; Karakitsos, Petros; Koutsouris, Dimitrios-Dionyssios

2014-01-01

Nowadays, there are molecular biology techniques providing information related to cervical cancer and its cause: the human Papillomavirus (HPV), including DNA microarrays identifying HPV subtypes, mRNA techniques such as nucleic acid based amplification or flow cytometry identifying E6/E7 oncogenes, and immunocytochemistry techniques such as overexpression of p16. Each one of these techniques has its own performance, limitations and advantages, thus a combinatorial approach via computational intelligence methods could exploit the benefits of each method and produce more accurate results. In this article we propose a clinical decision support system (CDSS), composed by artificial neural networks, intelligently combining the results of classic and ancillary techniques for diagnostic accuracy improvement. We evaluated this method on 740 cases with complete series of cytological assessment, molecular tests, and colposcopy examination. The CDSS demonstrated high sensitivity (89.4%), high specificity (97.1%), high positive predictive value (89.4%), and high negative predictive value (97.1%), for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+). In comparison to the tests involved in this study and their combinations, the CDSS produced the most balanced results in terms of sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV. The proposed system may reduce the referral rate for colposcopy and guide personalised management and therapeutic interventions. PMID:24812614

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Risk score: A practical tool to predict Gestational Diabetes Mellitus risk in Tanzania.

PubMed

Patrick Nombo, Anna; Wendelin Mwanri, Akwilina; Brouwer-Brolsma, Elske M; Ramaiya, Kaushik L; Feskens, Edith

2018-05-28

Universal screening for hyperglycemia during pregnancy may be in-practical in resource constrained countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a simple, non-invasive practical tool to predict undiagnosed Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in Tanzania. We used cross-sectional data of 609 pregnant women, without known diabetes, collected in six health facilities from Dar es Salaam city (urban). Women underwent screening for GDM during ante-natal clinics visit. Smoking habit, alcohol consumption, pre-existing hypertension, birth weight of the previous child, high parity, gravida, previous caesarean section, age, MUAC ≥28 cm, previous stillbirth, haemoglobin level, gestational age (weeks), family history of type 2 diabetes, intake of sweetened drinks (soda), physical activity, vegetables and fruits consumption were considered as important predictors for GDM. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to create the prediction model, using a cut-off value of 2.5 to minimise the number of undiagnosed GDM (false negatives). Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) ≥28 cm, previous stillbirth, and family history of type 2 diabetes were identified as significant risk factors of GDM with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 69%, 53%, 12% and 95%, respectively. Moreover, the inclusion of these three predictors resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.64 (0.56-0.72), indicating that the current tool correctly classifies 64% of high risk individuals. The findings of this study indicate that MUAC, previous stillbirth, and family history of type 2 diabetes significantly predict GDM development in this Tanzanian population. However, the developed non-invasive practical tool to predict undiagnosed GDM only identified 6 out of 10 individuals at risk of developing GDM. Thus, further development of the tool is warranted, for instance by testing the impact of other known risk factors such as maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI, hypertension during or before pregnancy and pregnancy weight gain. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Lack of Utility of Circulating Biomarkers of Inflammation and Endothelial Dysfunction for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction Among Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Chao, Chun; Song, Yiqing; Cook, Nancy; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Manson, JoAnn E.; Eaton, Charles; Margolis, Karen L.; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Phillips, Lawrence S.; Tinker, Lesley F.; Liu, Simin

2011-01-01

Background Recent studies have linked plasma markers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction to type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) development. However, the utility of these novel biomarkers for type 2 DM risk prediction remains uncertain. Methods The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (WHIOS), a prospective cohort, and a nested case-control study within the WHIOS of 1584 incident type 2 DM cases and 2198 matched controls were used to evaluate the utility of plasma markers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction for type 2 DM risk prediction. Between September 1994 and December 1998, 93 676 women aged 50 to 79 years were enrolled in the WHIOS. Fasting plasma levels of glucose, insulin, white blood cells, tumor necrosis factor receptor 2, interleukin 6, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, E-selectin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1, and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 were measured using blood samples collected at baseline. A series of prediction models including traditional risk factors and novel plasma markers were evaluated on the basis of global model fit, model discrimination, net reclassification improvement, and positive and negative predictive values. Results Although white blood cell count and levels of interleukin 6, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 significantly enhanced model fit, none of the inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction markers improved the ability of model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.93 vs 0.93), net reclassification, or predictive values (positive, 0.22 vs 0.24; negative, 0.99 vs 0.99 [using 15% 6-year type 2 DM risk as the cutoff]) compared with traditional risk factors. Similar results were obtained in ethnic-specific analyses. Conclusion Beyond traditional risk factors, measurement of plasma markers of systemic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction contribute relatively little additional value in clinical type 2 DM risk prediction in a multiethnic cohort of postmenopausal women. PMID:20876407

Seasonal resource value and male size influence male aggressive interactions in the leaf footed cactus bug, Narnia femorata.

PubMed

Nolen, Zachary J; Allen, Pablo E; Miller, Christine W

2017-05-01

In animal contests, resource value (the quality of a given resource) and resource holding potential (a male's absolute fighting ability) are two important factors determining the level of engagement and outcome of contests. Few studies have tested these factors simultaneously. Here, we investigated whether natural, seasonal differences in cactus phenology (fruit quality) influence interactions between males in the leaf-footed cactus bug, Narnia femorata (Hemiptera: Coreidae). We also considered whether males were more likely to interact when they were similar in size, as predicted by theory. Finally, we examined if male size relative to the size of an opponent predicted competitive success. We found that males have more interactions on cactus with high value ripe fruit, as we predicted. Further, we found that males that were closer in size were more likely to interact, and larger males were more likely to become dominant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Brachial-ankle PWV for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute stroke.

PubMed

Ahn, Kye Taek; Jeong, Jin-Ok; Jin, Seon-Ah; Kim, Mijoo; Oh, Jin Kyung; Choi, Ung-Lim; Seong, Seok-Woo; Kim, Jun Hyung; Choi, Si Wan; Jeong, Hye Seon; Song, Hee-Jung; Kim, Jei; Seong, In-Whan

2017-08-01

Although brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) is well-known for predicting the cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, its anticipated value is not demonstrated well concerning acute stroke. Total 1557 patients with acute stroke who performed baPWV were enrolled. We evaluated the prognostic value of baPWV predicting all-cause death and vascular death in patients with acute stroke Results: Highest quartile of baPWV was ≥23.64 m/s. All-caused deaths (including vascular death; 71) were 109 patients during follow-up periods (median 905 days). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that patients with the highest quartile of baPWV had higher risk for vascular death when they are compared with patients with all other three quartiles of baPWV (Hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.879 [1.022-3.456], p = .042 for vascular death). High baPWV was a strong prognostic value of vascular death in patients with acute stroke.

Validity of parent's self-reported responses to home safety questions.

PubMed

Osborne, Jodie M; Shibl, Rania; Cameron, Cate M; Kendrick, Denise; Lyons, Ronan A; Spinks, Anneliese B; Sipe, Neil; McClure, Roderick J

2016-09-01

The aim of the study was to describe the validity of parent's self-reported responses to questions on home safety practices for children of 2-4 years. A cross-sectional validation study compared parent's self-administered responses to items in the Home Injury Prevention Survey with home observations undertaken by trained researchers. The relationship between the questionnaire and observation results was assessed using percentage agreement, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and intraclass correlation coefficients. Percentage agreements ranged from 44% to 100% with 40 of the total 45 items scoring higher than 70%. Sensitivities ranged from 0% to 100%, with 27 items scoring at least 70%. Specificities also ranged from 0% to 100%, with 33 items scoring at least 70%. As such, the study identified a series of self-administered home safety questions that have sensitivities, specificities and predictive values sufficiently high to allow the information to be useful in research and injury prevention practice.

Comparing quantitative values of two generations of laser-assisted indocyanine green dye angiography systems: can we predict necrosis?

PubMed

Phillips, Brett T; Fourman, Mitchell S; Rivara, Andrew; Dagum, Alexander B; Huston, Tara L; Ganz, Jason C; Bui, Duc T; Khan, Sami U

2014-01-01

Several devices exist today to assist the intraoperative determination of skin flap perfusion. Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Dye Angiography (LAICGA) has been shown to accurately predict mastectomy skin flap necrosis using quantitative perfusion values. The laser properties of the latest LAICGA device (SPY Elite) differ significantly from its predecessor system (SPY 2001), preventing direct translation of previous published data. The purpose of this study was to establish a mathematical relationship of perfusion values between these 2 devices. Breast reconstruction patients were prospectively enrolled into a clinical trial where skin flap evaluation and excision was based on quantitative SPY Q values previously established in the literature. Initial study patients underwent mastectomy skin flap evaluation using both SPY systems simultaneously. Absolute perfusion unit (APU) values at identical locations on the breast were then compared graphically. 210 data points were identified on the same patients (n = 4) using both SPY systems. A linear relationship (y = 2.9883x + 12.726) was identified with a high level or correlation (R(2) = 0.744). Previously published values using SPY 2001 (APU 3.7) provided a value of 23.8 APU on the SPY Elite. In addition, postoperative necrosis in these patients correlated to regions of skin identified with the SPY Elite with APU less than 23.8. Intraoperative comparison of LAICGA systems has provided direct correlation of perfusion values predictive of necrosis that were previously established in the literature. An APU value of 3.7 from the SPY 2001 correlates to a SPY Elite APU value of 23.8.

Comparing Quantitative Values of Two Generations of Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Dye Angiography Systems: Can We Predict Necrosis?

PubMed Central

Fourman, Mitchell S.; Rivara, Andrew; Dagum, Alexander B.; Huston, Tara L.; Ganz, Jason C.; Bui, Duc T.; Khan, Sami U.

2014-01-01

Objective: Several devices exist today to assist the intraoperative determination of skin flap perfusion. Laser-Assisted Indocyanine Green Dye Angiography (LAICGA) has been shown to accurately predict mastectomy skin flap necrosis using quantitative perfusion values. The laser properties of the latest LAICGA device (SPY Elite) differ significantly from its predecessor system (SPY 2001), preventing direct translation of previous published data. The purpose of this study was to establish a mathematical relationship of perfusion values between these 2 devices. Methods: Breast reconstruction patients were prospectively enrolled into a clinical trial where skin flap evaluation and excision was based on quantitative SPY Q values previously established in the literature. Initial study patients underwent mastectomy skin flap evaluation using both SPY systems simultaneously. Absolute perfusion unit (APU) values at identical locations on the breast were then compared graphically. Results: 210 data points were identified on the same patients (n = 4) using both SPY systems. A linear relationship (y = 2.9883x + 12.726) was identified with a high level or correlation (R2 = 0.744). Previously published values using SPY 2001 (APU 3.7) provided a value of 23.8 APU on the SPY Elite. In addition, postoperative necrosis in these patients correlated to regions of skin identified with the SPY Elite with APU less than 23.8. Conclusion: Intraoperative comparison of LAICGA systems has provided direct correlation of perfusion values predictive of necrosis that were previously established in the literature. An APU value of 3.7 from the SPY 2001 correlates to a SPY Elite APU value of 23.8. PMID:25525483

Impaired gas exchange: accuracy of defining characteristics in children with acute respiratory infection1

PubMed Central

Pascoal, Lívia Maia; Lopes, Marcos Venícios de Oliveira; Chaves, Daniel Bruno Resende; Beltrão, Beatriz Amorim; da Silva, Viviane Martins; Monteiro, Flávia Paula Magalhães

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the accuracy of the defining characteristics of the Impaired gas exchange nursing diagnosis in children with acute respiratory infection. METHOD: open prospective cohort study conducted with 136 children monitored for a consecutive period of at least six days and not more than ten days. An instrument based on the defining characteristics of the Impaired gas exchange diagnosis and on literature addressing pulmonary assessment was used to collect data. The accuracy means of all the defining characteristics under study were computed. RESULTS: the Impaired gas exchange diagnosis was present in 42.6% of the children in the first assessment. Hypoxemia was the characteristic that presented the best measures of accuracy. Abnormal breathing presented high sensitivity, while restlessness, cyanosis, and abnormal skin color showed high specificity. All the characteristics presented negative predictive values of 70% and cyanosis stood out by its high positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: hypoxemia was the defining characteristic that presented the best predictive ability to determine Impaired gas exchange. Studies of this nature enable nurses to minimize variability in clinical situations presented by the patient and to identify more precisely the nursing diagnosis that represents the patient's true clinical condition. PMID:26155010

Nonlinear model predictive control of a vortex-induced vibrations bladeless wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azadi Yazdi, E.

2018-07-01

In this paper, a nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC) is proposed for a vortex-induced vibrations bladeless wind turbine (BWT). The BWT consists of a long rigid cylinder mounted on a flexible beam. The nonlinear dynamic model of the transverse vibrations of the BWT is obtained under the fluctuating lift force due to periodically shedding vortices. The NMPC method is used to design a controller that achieves maximum energy production rate. It is observed that the power generation of the NMPC drops in high wind speeds due to a mismatch between the vortex shedding frequency and the structural natural frequency. Therefore, a secondary gain-scheduling (GS) controller is proposed to virtually increase the natural frequency of the structure to match the vortex shedding frequency for high winds. Although previous studies predicted the output power of the studied BWT to be less than 100 W, with the proposed GS-NMPC scheme the output power reaches the value of 1 kW. Therefore, the capability of the BWT as a renewable energy generation device was highly underestimated in the literature. The computed values of the aero-mechanical efficiency suggest the BWT as a major competitor to the conventional wind turbines.

Pretreatment data is highly predictive of liver chemistry signals in clinical trials

PubMed Central

Cai, Zhaohui; Bresell, Anders; Steinberg, Mark H; Silberg, Debra G; Furlong, Stephen T

2012-01-01

Purpose The goal of this retrospective analysis was to assess how well predictive models could determine which patients would develop liver chemistry signals during clinical trials based on their pretreatment (baseline) information. Patients and methods Based on data from 24 late-stage clinical trials, classification models were developed to predict liver chemistry outcomes using baseline information, which included demographics, medical history, concomitant medications, and baseline laboratory results. Results Predictive models using baseline data predicted which patients would develop liver signals during the trials with average validation accuracy around 80%. Baseline levels of individual liver chemistry tests were most important for predicting their own elevations during the trials. High bilirubin levels at baseline were not uncommon and were associated with a high risk of developing biochemical Hy’s law cases. Baseline γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) level appeared to have some predictive value, but did not increase predictability beyond using established liver chemistry tests. Conclusion It is possible to predict which patients are at a higher risk of developing liver chemistry signals using pretreatment (baseline) data. Derived knowledge from such predictions may allow proactive and targeted risk management, and the type of analysis described here could help determine whether new biomarkers offer improved performance over established ones. PMID:23226004

Adverse cardiac events after orthotopic liver transplantation: a cross-sectional study in 389 consecutive patients.

PubMed

Nicolau-Raducu, Ramona; Gitman, Marina; Ganier, Donald; Loss, George E; Cohen, Ari J; Patel, Hamang; Girgrah, Nigel; Sekar, Krish; Nossaman, Bobby

2015-01-01

Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines caution that preoperative noninvasive cardiac tests may have poor predictive value for detecting coronary artery disease in liver transplant candidates. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the role of clinical predictor variables for early and late cardiac morbidity and mortality and the predictive values of noninvasive cardiac tests for perioperative cardiac events in a high-risk liver transplant population. In all, 389 adult recipients were retrospectively analyzed for a median follow-up time of 3.4 years (range = 2.3-4.4 years). Overall survival was 83%. During the first year after transplantation, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates were 15.2% and 2.8%. In patients who survived the first year, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates were 3.9% and 2%, with cardiovascular etiology as the third leading cause of death. Dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) and single-photon emission computed tomography had respective sensitivities of 9% and 57%, specificities of 98% and 75%, positive predictive values of 33% and 28%, and negative predictive values of 89% and 91% for predicting early cardiac events. A rate blood pressure product less than 12,000 with DSE was associated with an increased risk for postoperative atrial fibrillation. Correspondence analysis identified a statistical association between nonalcoholic steatohepatitis/cryptogenic cirrhosis and postoperative myocardial ischemia. Logistic regression identified 3 risk factors for postoperative acute coronary syndrome: age, history of coronary artery disease, and pretransplant requirement for vasopressors. Multivariable analysis showed statistical associations of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and the development of acute kidney injury as risk factors for overall cardiac-related mortality. These findings may help in identifying high-risk patients and may lead to the development of better cardiac tests. © 2014 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Predict subcellular locations of singleplex and multiplex proteins by semi-supervised learning and dimension-reducing general mode of Chou's PseAAC.

PubMed

Pacharawongsakda, Eakasit; Theeramunkong, Thanaruk

2013-12-01

Predicting protein subcellular location is one of major challenges in Bioinformatics area since such knowledge helps us understand protein functions and enables us to select the targeted proteins during drug discovery process. While many computational techniques have been proposed to improve predictive performance for protein subcellular location, they have several shortcomings. In this work, we propose a method to solve three main issues in such techniques; i) manipulation of multiplex proteins which may exist or move between multiple cellular compartments, ii) handling of high dimensionality in input and output spaces and iii) requirement of sufficient labeled data for model training. Towards these issues, this work presents a new computational method for predicting proteins which have either single or multiple locations. The proposed technique, namely iFLAST-CORE, incorporates the dimensionality reduction in the feature and label spaces with co-training paradigm for semi-supervised multi-label classification. For this purpose, the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is applied to transform the high-dimensional feature space and label space into the lower-dimensional spaces. After that, due to limitation of labeled data, the co-training regression makes use of unlabeled data by predicting the target values in the lower-dimensional spaces of unlabeled data. In the last step, the component of SVD is used to project labels in the lower-dimensional space back to those in the original space and an adaptive threshold is used to map a numeric value to a binary value for label determination. A set of experiments on viral proteins and gram-negative bacterial proteins evidence that our proposed method improve the classification performance in terms of various evaluation metrics such as Aiming (or Precision), Coverage (or Recall) and macro F-measure, compared to the traditional method that uses only labeled data.

18F-FDG PET/CT in Detecting Metastatic Infection in Children.

PubMed

Kouijzer, Ilse J E; Blokhuis, Gijsbert J; Draaisma, Jos M T; Oyen, Wim J G; de Geus-Oei, Lioe-Fee; Bleeker-Rovers, Chantal P

2016-04-01

Metastatic infection is a severe complication of bacteremia with high morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic value of 18F-FDG PET combined with CT (FDG PET/CT) in children suspected of having metastatic infection. The results of FDG PET/CT scans performed in children because of suspected metastatic infection from September 2003 to June 2013 were analyzed retrospectively. The results were compared with the final clinical diagnosis. FDG PET/CT was performed in 13 children with suspected metastatic infection. Of the total number of FDG PET/CT scans, 38% were clinically helpful. Positive predictive value of FDG PET/CT was 71%, and negative predictive value was 100%. FDG PET/CT appears to be a valuable diagnostic technique in children with suspected metastatic infection. Prospective studies of FDG PET/CT as part of a structured diagnostic protocol are needed to assess the exact additional diagnostic value.

The value of reasons for encounter in early detection of colorectal cancer.

PubMed

van Boxtel-Wilms, Susan J M; van Boven, Kees; Bor, J H Hans; Bakx, J Carel; Lucassen, Peter; Oskam, Sibo; van Weel, Chris

2016-06-01

Symptoms with a high predictive power for colorectal cancer (CRC) do not exist. To explore the predictive value of patients' reason for encounter (RFE) in the two years prior to the diagnosis of CRC. A retrospective nested case-control study using prospectively collected data from electronic records in general practice over 20 years. Matching was done based on age (within two years), gender and practice. The positive likelihood ratios (LR+) and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for RFE between cases and controls in the two years before the index date. We identified 184 CRC cases and matched 366 controls. Six RFEs had significant LR + and ORs for CRC, which may have high predictive power. These RFEs are part of four chapters in the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC) that include tiredness (significant at 3-6 months prior to the diagnosis; LR+ 2.6 and OR 3.07; and from 0 to 3 months prior to the diagnosis; LR+ 2.0 and OR 2.36), anaemia (significant at three months before diagnosis; LR+ 9.8 and OR 16.54), abdominal pain, rectal bleeding and constipation (significant at 3-6 months before diagnosis; LR+ 3.0 and OR 3.33; 3 months prior to the diagnosis LR+ 8.0 and OR 18.10) and weight loss (significant at three months before diagnosis; LR+ 14.9 and OR 14.53). Data capture and organization in ICPC permits study of the predictive value of RFE for CRC in primary care.

Who Wants to Play? Sport Motivation Trajectories, Sport Participation, and the Development of Depressive Symptoms.

PubMed

Wang, Ming-Te; Chow, Angela; Amemiya, Jamie

2017-09-01

Although sport involvement has the potential to enhance psychological wellbeing, studies have suggested that motivation to participate in sports activities declines across childhood and adolescence. This study incorporated expectancy-value theory to model children's sport ability self-concept and subjective task values trajectories from first to twelfth grade. Additionally, it examined if sport motivation trajectories predicted individual and team-based sport participation and whether sport participation in turn reduced the development of depressive symptoms. Data were drawn from the Childhood and Beyond Study, a cross-sequential longitudinal study comprised of three cohorts (N = 1065; 49% male; 92% European American; M ages for youngest, middle, and oldest cohorts at the first wave were 6.42, 7.39, and 9.36 years, respectively). Results revealed four trajectories of students' co-development of sport self-concept and task values: congruent stable high, incongruent stable high, middle school decreasing, and decreasing. Trajectory membership predicted individual and team-based sports participation, but only team-based sport participation predicted faster declines in depressive symptoms. The use of a person-centered approach enabled us to identify heterogeneity in trajectories of sport motivation that can aid in the development of nuanced strategies to increase students' motivation to participate in sports.

Predictive values of BI-RADS(®) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the detection of breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS).

PubMed

Badan, Gustavo Machado; Piato, Sebastião; Roveda, Décio; de Faria Castro Fleury, Eduardo

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate BI-RADS indicators in the detection of DCIS by MRI. Prospective observational study that started in 2014 and lasted 24 months. A total of 110 consecutive patients were evaluated, who presented with suspicious or highly suspicious microcalcifications on screening mammography (BI-RADS categories 4 and 5) and underwent stereotactic-guided breast biopsy, having had an MRI scan performed prior to biopsy. Altogether, 38 cases were characterized as positive for malignancy, of which 25 were DCIS and 13 were invasive ductal carcinoma cases. MRI had a sensitivity of 96%; specificity of 75.67%; positive predictive value (PPV) for DCIS detection of 57.14%; negative predictive value (NPV) in the detection of DCIS of 98.24%; and an accuracy of 80.80%. BI-RADS as a tool for the detection of DCIS by MRI is a powerful instrument whose sensitivity was higher when compared to that observed for mammography in the literature. Likewise, the PPV obtained by MRI was higher than that observed in the present study for mammography, and the high NPV obtained on MRI scans can provide early evidence to discourage breast biopsy in selected cases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Turbulence effects on volatilization rates of liquids and solutes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, J.-F.; Chao, H.-P.; Chiou, C.T.; Manes, M.

2004-01-01

Volatilization rates of neat liquids (benzene, toluene, fluorobenzene, bromobenzene, ethylbenzene, m-xylene, o-xylene, o-dichlorobenzene, and 1-methylnaphthalene) and of solutes (phenol, m-cresol, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, o-xylene, and ethylene dibromide) from dilute water solutions have been measured in the laboratory over a wide range of air speeds and water-stirring rates. The overall transfer coefficients (KL) for individual solutes are independent of whether they are in single- or multi-solute solutions. The gas-film transfer coefficients (kG) for solutes in the two-film model, which have hitherto been estimated by extrapolation from reference coefficients, can now be determined directly from the volatilization rates of neatliquids through anew algorithm. The associated liquid-film transfer coefficients (KL) can then be obtained from measured KL and kG values and solute Henry law constants (H). This approach provides a novel means for checking the precision of any kL and kG estimation methods for ultimate prediction of KL. The improved kG estimation enables accurate K L predictions for low-volatility (i.e., low-H) solutes where K L and kGH are essentially equal. In addition, the prediction of KL values for high-volatility (i.e., high-H) solutes, where KL ??? kL, is also improved by using appropriate reference kL values.

Dopamine reward prediction-error signalling: a two-component response

PubMed Central

Schultz, Wolfram

2017-01-01

Environmental stimuli and objects, including rewards, are often processed sequentially in the brain. Recent work suggests that the phasic dopamine reward prediction-error response follows a similar sequential pattern. An initial brief, unselective and highly sensitive increase in activity unspecifically detects a wide range of environmental stimuli, then quickly evolves into the main response component, which reflects subjective reward value and utility. This temporal evolution allows the dopamine reward prediction-error signal to optimally combine speed and accuracy. PMID:26865020

Listening In on the Past: What Can Otolith δ18O Values Really Tell Us about the Environmental History of Fishes?

PubMed Central

Darnaude, Audrey M.; Sturrock, Anna; Trueman, Clive N.; Mouillot, David; EIMF; Campana, Steven E.; Hunter, Ewan

2014-01-01

Oxygen isotope ratios from fish otoliths are used to discriminate marine stocks and reconstruct past climate, assuming that variations in otolith δ18O values closely reflect differences in temperature history of fish when accounting for salinity induced variability in water δ18O. To investigate this, we exploited the environmental and migratory data gathered from a decade using archival tags to study the behaviour of adult plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) in the North Sea. Based on the tag-derived monthly distributions of the fish and corresponding temperature and salinity estimates modelled across three consecutive years, we first predicted annual otolith δ18O values for three geographically discrete offshore sub-stocks, using three alternative plausible scenarios for otolith growth. Comparison of predicted vs. measured annual δ18O values demonstrated >96% correct prediction of sub-stock membership, irrespective of the otolith growth scenario. Pronounced inter-stock differences in δ18O values, notably in summer, provide a robust marker for reconstructing broad-scale plaice distribution in the North Sea. However, although largely congruent, measured and predicted annual δ18O values of did not fully match. Small, but consistent, offsets were also observed between individual high-resolution otolith δ18O values measured during tag recording time and corresponding δ18O predictions using concomitant tag-recorded temperatures and location-specific salinity estimates. The nature of the shifts differed among sub-stocks, suggesting specific vital effects linked to variation in physiological response to temperature. Therefore, although otolith δ18O in free-ranging fish largely reflects environmental temperature and salinity, we counsel prudence when interpreting otolith δ18O data for stock discrimination or temperature reconstruction until the mechanisms underpinning otolith δ18O signature acquisition, and associated variation, are clarified. PMID:25279667

Influence of high magnetic field on access to stationary H-modes and pedestal characteristics in Alcator C-Mod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolman, E. A.; Hughes, J. W.; Wolfe, S. M.; Wukitch, S. J.; LaBombard, B.; Hubbard, A. E.; Marmar, E. S.; Snyder, P. B.; Schmidtmayr, M.

2018-04-01

Recent Alcator C-Mod experiments have explored access to and characteristics of H-modes at magnetic fields approaching 8 T, the highest field achieved to date in a diverted tokamak. The H-modes originated from L-mode densities ranging from 1.1 × 1020~m-3 to 2.8 × 1020~m-3 , allowing insight into the density dependence of the H-mode power threshold at high magnetic field. This dependence is compared to predictions from the ITPA scaling law ([1]), finding that the law is approximately accurate at 7.8 T. However, the law underpredicted the high density H-mode threshold at lower magnetic field in previous C-Mod experiments ([2]), suggesting that the overall dependence of the threshold on magnetic field is weaker than predicted by the scaling law. The threshold data at 7.8 T also indicates that the onset of a low density branch at this magnetic field on C-Mod occurs below 1.4 × 1020~m-3 , which is lower than predicted by an existing model for low density branch onset. The H-modes achieved steady-state densities ranging from 2.3 × 1020 ~m-3 to 4.4 × 1020 ~m-3 , and higher transient densities, and had values of q 95 from 3.3 to 6.0. This parameter range allowed the achievement of all three types of H-mode routinely observed at lower magnetic field on C-Mod: the stationary, ELM-suppressed Enhanced D α (EDA) regime, seen at high densities and high values of q 95; the nonstationary ELM-free regime, seen at lower densities and values of q 95; and the ELMy regime, seen at low density, moderate q 95, and specialized plasma shape. The parameter space in which these regimes occur at 7.8 T is consistent with lower magnetic field experience. Pressure pedestal height at 7.8 T is compared to EPED [3, 4] predictions, and a scaling law for EDA density pedestal height developed between 4.5 T and 6.0 T is updated to include fields from 2.7 T to 7.8 T. Overall, this analysis increases confidence in the use of low magnetic field experience to predict some elements of high magnetic field tokamak behavior.

Using Remote Sensing and High-Resolution Digital Elevation Models to Identify Potential Erosional Hotspots Along River Channels During High Discharge Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orland, E. D.; Amidon, W. H.

2017-12-01

As global warming intensifies, large precipitation events and associated floods are becoming increasingly common. Channel adjustments during floods can occur by both erosion and deposition of sediment, often damaging infrastructure in the process. There is thus a need for predictive models that can help managers identify river reaches that are most prone to adjustment during storms. Because rivers in post-glacial landscapes often flow over a mixture of bedrock and alluvial substrates, the identification of bedrock vs. alluvial channel reaches is an important first step in predicting vulnerability to channel adjustment during flood events, especially because bedrock channels are unlikely to adjust significantly, even during floods. This study develops a semi-automated approach to predicting channel substrate using a high-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM). The study area is the Middlebury River in Middlebury, VT-a well-studied watershed with a wide variety of channel substrates, including reaches with documented channel adjustments during recent flooding events. Multiple metrics were considered for reference—such as channel width and drainage area—but the study utilized channel slope as a key parameter for identifying morphological variations within the Middlebury River. Using data extracted from the DEM, a power law was fit to selected slope and drainage area values for each branch in order to model idealized slope-drainage area relationships, which were then compared with measured slope-drainage area relationships. Differences in measured slope minus predicted slope (called delta-slope) are shown to help predict river channel substrate. Compared with field observations, higher delta-slope values correlate with more stable, boulder rich channels or bedrock gorges; conversely the lowest delta-slope values correlate with flat, sediment rich alluvial channels. The delta-slope metric thus serves as a reliable first-order predictor of channel substrate in the Middlebury River, which in turn can be used to help identify local reaches that are most vulnerable to channel adjustment during large flood events.

Predictive classification of pediatric bipolar disorder using atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging and support vector machines.

PubMed

Mwangi, Benson; Wu, Mon-Ju; Bauer, Isabelle E; Modi, Haina; Zeni, Cristian P; Zunta-Soares, Giovana B; Hasan, Khader M; Soares, Jair C

2015-11-30

Previous studies have reported abnormalities of white-matter diffusivity in pediatric bipolar disorder. However, it has not been established whether these abnormalities are able to distinguish individual subjects with pediatric bipolar disorder from healthy controls with a high specificity and sensitivity. Diffusion-weighted imaging scans were acquired from 16 youths diagnosed with DSM-IV bipolar disorder and 16 demographically matched healthy controls. Regional white matter tissue microstructural measurements such as fractional anisotropy, axial diffusivity and radial diffusivity were computed using an atlas-based approach. These measurements were used to 'train' a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to predict new or 'unseen' subjects' diagnostic labels. The SVM algorithm predicted individual subjects with specificity=87.5%, sensitivity=68.75%, accuracy=78.12%, positive predictive value=84.62%, negative predictive value=73.68%, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.7812 and chi-square p-value=0.0012. A pattern of reduced regional white matter fractional anisotropy was observed in pediatric bipolar disorder patients. These results suggest that atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging measurements can distinguish individual pediatric bipolar disorder patients from healthy controls. Notably, from a clinical perspective these findings will contribute to the pathophysiological understanding of pediatric bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality determinants and prediction of outcome in high risk newborns.

PubMed

Dalvi, R; Dalvi, B V; Birewar, N; Chari, G; Fernandez, A R

1990-06-01

The aim of this study was to determine independent patient-related predictors of mortality in high risk newborns admitted at our centre. The study population comprised 100 consecutive newborns each, from the premature unit (PU) and sick baby care unit (SBCU), respectively. Thirteen high risk factors (variables) for each of the two units, were entered into a multivariate regression analysis. Variables with independent predictive value for poor outcome (i.e., death) in PU were, weight less than 1 kg, hyaline membrane disease, neurologic problems, and intravenous therapy. High risk factors in SBCU included, blood gas abnormality, bleeding phenomena, recurrent convulsions, apnea, and congenital anomalies. Identification of these factors guided us in defining priority areas for improvement in our system of neonatal care. Also, based on these variables a simple predictive score for outcome was constructed. The prediction equation and the score were cross-validated by applying them to a 'test-set' of 100 newborns each for PU and SBCU. Results showed a comparable sensitivity, specificity and error rate.

Determinants of work ability and its predictive value for disability.

PubMed

Alavinia, S M; de Boer, A G E M; van Duivenbooden, J C; Frings-Dresen, M H W; Burdorf, A

2009-01-01

Maintaining the ability of workers to cope with physical and psychosocial demands at work becomes increasingly important in prolonging working life. To analyse the effects of work-related factors and individual characteristics on work ability and to determine the predictive value of work ability on receiving a work-related disability pension. A longitudinal study was conducted among 850 construction workers aged 40 years and older, with average follow-up period of 23 months. Disability was defined as receiving a disability pension, granted to workers unable to continue working in their regular job. Work ability was assessed using the work ability index (WAI). Associations between work-related factors and individual characteristics with work ability at baseline were evaluated using linear regression analysis, and Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of work ability for disability. Work-related factors were associated with a lower work ability at baseline, but had little prognostic value for disability during follow-up. The hazard ratios for disability among workers with a moderate and poor work ability at baseline were 8 and 32, respectively. All separate scales in the WAI had predictive power for future disability with the highest influence of current work ability in relation to job demands and lowest influence of diseases diagnosed by a physician. A moderate or poor work ability was highly predictive for receiving a disability pension. Preventive measures should facilitate a good balance between work performance and health in order to prevent quitting labour participation.

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

PubMed

Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

2016-01-01

Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

PubMed Central

Erol, Hamza

2016-01-01

Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

Risk reclassification analysis investigating the added value of fatigue to sickness absence predictions.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Bültmann, Ute; Groothoff, Johan W; Twisk, Jos W R; Heymans, Martijn W

2015-11-01

Prognostic models including age, self-rated health and prior sickness absence (SA) have been found to predict high (≥ 30) SA days and high (≥ 3) SA episodes during 1-year follow-up. More predictors of high SA are needed to improve these SA prognostic models. The purpose of this study was to investigate fatigue as new predictor in SA prognostic models by using risk reclassification methods and measures. This was a prospective cohort study with 1-year follow-up of 1,137 office workers. Fatigue was measured at baseline with the 20-item checklist individual strength and added to the existing SA prognostic models. SA days and episodes during 1-year follow-up were retrieved from an occupational health service register. The added value of fatigue was investigated with Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) measures. In total, 579 (51 %) office workers had complete data for analysis. Fatigue was prospectively associated with both high SA days and episodes. The NRI revealed that adding fatigue to the SA days model correctly reclassified workers with high SA days, but incorrectly reclassified workers without high SA days. The IDI indicated no improvement in risk discrimination by the SA days model. Both NRI and IDI showed that the prognostic model predicting high SA episodes did not improve when fatigue was added as predictor variable. In the present study, fatigue increased false-positive rates which may reduce the cost-effectiveness of interventions for preventing SA.

Neuromusculoskeletal Model Calibration Significantly Affects Predicted Knee Contact Forces for Walking

PubMed Central

Serrancolí, Gil; Kinney, Allison L.; Fregly, Benjamin J.; Font-Llagunes, Josep M.

2016-01-01

Though walking impairments are prevalent in society, clinical treatments are often ineffective at restoring lost function. For this reason, researchers have begun to explore the use of patient-specific computational walking models to develop more effective treatments. However, the accuracy with which models can predict internal body forces in muscles and across joints depends on how well relevant model parameter values can be calibrated for the patient. This study investigated how knowledge of internal knee contact forces affects calibration of neuromusculoskeletal model parameter values and subsequent prediction of internal knee contact and leg muscle forces during walking. Model calibration was performed using a novel two-level optimization procedure applied to six normal walking trials from the Fourth Grand Challenge Competition to Predict In Vivo Knee Loads. The outer-level optimization adjusted time-invariant model parameter values to minimize passive muscle forces, reserve actuator moments, and model parameter value changes with (Approach A) and without (Approach B) tracking of experimental knee contact forces. Using the current guess for model parameter values but no knee contact force information, the inner-level optimization predicted time-varying muscle activations that were close to experimental muscle synergy patterns and consistent with the experimental inverse dynamic loads (both approaches). For all the six gait trials, Approach A predicted knee contact forces with high accuracy for both compartments (average correlation coefficient r = 0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 52.6 N medial; average r = 0.95 and RMSE = 56.6 N lateral). In contrast, Approach B overpredicted contact force magnitude for both compartments (average RMSE = 323 N medial and 348 N lateral) and poorly matched contact force shape for the lateral compartment (average r = 0.90 medial and −0.10 lateral). Approach B had statistically higher lateral muscle forces and lateral optimal muscle fiber lengths but lower medial, central, and lateral normalized muscle fiber lengths compared to Approach A. These findings suggest that poorly calibrated model parameter values may be a major factor limiting the ability of neuromusculoskeletal models to predict knee contact and leg muscle forces accurately for walking. PMID:27210105

Predicting the effect of cytochrome P450 inhibitors on substrate drugs: analysis of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling submissions to the US Food and Drug Administration.

PubMed

Wagner, Christian; Pan, Yuzhuo; Hsu, Vicky; Grillo, Joseph A; Zhang, Lei; Reynolds, Kellie S; Sinha, Vikram; Zhao, Ping

2015-01-01

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has seen a recent increase in the application of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling towards assessing the potential of drug-drug interactions (DDI) in clinically relevant scenarios. To continue our assessment of such approaches, we evaluated the predictive performance of PBPK modeling in predicting cytochrome P450 (CYP)-mediated DDI. This evaluation was based on 15 substrate PBPK models submitted by nine sponsors between 2009 and 2013. For these 15 models, a total of 26 DDI studies (cases) with various CYP inhibitors were available. Sponsors developed the PBPK models, reportedly without considering clinical DDI data. Inhibitor models were either developed by sponsors or provided by PBPK software developers and applied with minimal or no modification. The metric for assessing predictive performance of the sponsors' PBPK approach was the R predicted/observed value (R predicted/observed = [predicted mean exposure ratio]/[observed mean exposure ratio], with the exposure ratio defined as [C max (maximum plasma concentration) or AUC (area under the plasma concentration-time curve) in the presence of CYP inhibition]/[C max or AUC in the absence of CYP inhibition]). In 81 % (21/26) and 77 % (20/26) of cases, respectively, the R predicted/observed values for AUC and C max ratios were within a pre-defined threshold of 1.25-fold of the observed data. For all cases, the R predicted/observed values for AUC and C max were within a 2-fold range. These results suggest that, based on the submissions to the FDA to date, there is a high degree of concordance between PBPK-predicted and observed effects of CYP inhibition, especially CYP3A-based, on the exposure of drug substrates.

Utility of Exercise Testing and Adenosine Response for Risk Assessment in Children with Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome.

PubMed

Ergul, Yakup; Ozturk, Erkut; Ozyilmaz, Isa; Unsal, Serkan; Carus, Hayat; Tola, Hasan Tahsin; Tanidir, Ibrahim Cansaran; Guzeltas, Alper

2015-01-01

We aimed to determine the correlation between noninvasive testing (exercise stress testing [EST] and adenosine responsiveness of accessory pathway [AP] ) and invasive electrophysiology study (EPS) for assessment antegrade conduction of the AP in Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. This prospective, observational study enrolled 40 children (58% male children, median age of 13 years, and median weight of 47.5 kg) with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Conduction through the AP to a cycle length of ≤250 ms was considered rapid or high-risk; otherwise, patients were nonrapid or low-risk. The sudden disappearance of the delta-wave was seen in 10 cases (25%) during EST. Accessory pathway was found to be high-risk in 13 cases (13/40, 32.5%) while the accessory path was identified as low-risk in 27 cases; however, six patients (15%) had blocked AP conduction with adenosine during EPS. Low-risk classification by EST alone to identify patients with nonrapid conduction in baseline EPS had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 90% (accuracy 54%). Blocked AP conduction with adenosine as a marker of nonrapid baseline AP conduction had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 84%. Finally, AP was adenosine nonresponsive in the majority of patients (28/30, 93%) with persistent delta-waves, 40% of those who had a sudden disappearance of delta-waves had an adenosine-responsive AP (P value: .028). Abrupt loss of preexcitation during EST and blocked AP conduction with adenosine had high specificity and positive predictive value for nonrapid and low-risk antegrade conduction during baseline invasive EPS. Successful risk stratification of pediatric patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White is possible through the use of EST and the adenosine responsiveness of AP. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

High Index Values of Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay for BP180 at Baseline Predict Relapse in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid

PubMed Central

Koga, Hiroshi; Teye, Kwesi; Ishii, Norito; Ohata, Chika; Nakama, Takekuni

2018-01-01

Bullous pemphigoid (BP) presenting with erythema plaques and tense blisters is the most frequent autoimmune bullous disease. Immunologically, BP is characterized by the presence of circulating anti-epidermal basement membrane zone (BMZ) antibodies. The autoantigens in BMZs targeted by patient's antibodies are mainly BP180 (type XVII collagen) and BP230. Previous reports have indicated that IgG to the immunodominant region of BP180 in BP, 16th non-collagenous domain (NC16A), and anti-BP180NC16A IgE are related to disease activity. In the cytokine profile, serum levels of IL-6, TNF-α, IL-15, and CCL18 were associated with the severity or activity of the disease. Blood eosinophilia is seen frequently, especially in severe cases. These biomarkers are helpful to evaluate efficacy of treatment and disease severity. Due to the high frequency of disease relapse, prediction of relapse at initiation of treatment (baseline) must be beneficial for clinicians. Therefore, we evaluated biomarkers anti-BP180 IgG (BP180 ELISA), anti-BP230 IgG (BP230 ELISA), peripheral eosinophils, and serum IgE at baseline between BP patients with (n = 16) and without (n = 31) relapse. We found significantly higher index values of BP180 ELISA in the relapse group, whereas no significant difference was found in BP230 ELISA, peripheral eosinophils, and serum IgE. This study indicated that a high index value of BP180 ELISA (cutoff value, 53.09 U/mL; sensitivity, 81.3%; specificity, 48.4%) at baseline may predict relapse in patients with BP. This may help clinicians treating BP patients in decision-making regarding duration and intensity of treatment. PMID:29868591

Validation of an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision Coding Algorithm for Hospital Encounters with Hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Hodge, Meryl C; Dixon, Stephanie; Garg, Amit X; Clemens, Kristin K

2017-06-01

To determine the positive predictive value and sensitivity of an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, coding algorithm for hospital encounters concerning hypoglycemia. We carried out 2 retrospective studies in Ontario, Canada. We examined medical records from 2002 through 2014, in which older adults (mean age, 76) were assigned at least 1 code for hypoglycemia (E15, E160, E161, E162, E1063, E1163, E1363, E1463). The positive predictive value of the algorithm was calculated using a gold-standard definition (blood glucose value <4 mmol/L or physician diagnosis of hypoglycemia). To determine the algorithm's sensitivity, we used linked healthcare databases to identify older adults (mean age, 77) with laboratory plasma glucose values <4 mmol/L during a hospital encounter that took place between 2003 and 2011. We assessed how frequently a code for hypoglycemia was present. We also examined the algorithm's performance in differing clinical settings (e.g. inpatient vs. emergency department, by hypoglycemia severity). The positive predictive value of the algorithm was 94.0% (95% confidence interval 89.3% to 97.0%), and its sensitivity was 12.7% (95% confidence interval 11.9% to 13.5%). It performed better in the emergency department and in cases of more severe hypoglycemia (plasma glucose values <3.5 mmol/L compared with ≥3.5 mmol/L). Our hypoglycemia algorithm has a high positive predictive value but is limited in sensitivity. Although we can be confident that older adults who are assigned 1 of these codes truly had a hypoglycemia event, many episodes will not be captured by studies using administrative databases. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiparametric Detection of Antibodies against Different EBV Antigens to Predict Risk for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in a High-Risk Population of China.

PubMed

Chen, Hao; Chen, Shulin; Lu, Jie; Wang, Xueping; Li, Jianpei; Li, Linfang; Fu, Jihuan; Scheper, Thomas; Meyer, Wolfgang; Peng, Yu-Hui; Liu, Wanli

2017-09-01

In this study, we aimed to use the combined detection of multiple antibodies against Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) antigens to develop a model for screening and diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Samples of 300 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and 494 controls, including 294 healthy subjects (HC), 99 non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma cancer patients (NNPC), and 101 patients with benign nasopharyngeal lesions (BNL), were incubated with the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2, and band intensities were used to establish a risk prediction model. The nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk probability analysis based on the panel of VCAgp125 IgA, EBNA-1 IgA, EA-D IgA, EBNA-1 IgG, EAD IgG, and VCAp19 IgG displayed the best performance. When using 26.1% as the cutoff point in ROC analysis, the AUC value and sensitivity/specificity were 0.951 and 90.7%/86.2%, respectively, in nasopharyngeal carcinoma and all controls. In nasopharyngeal carcinoma and controls without the non-nasopharyngeal carcinoma and BNL groups, the AUC value and sensitivity/specificity were 0.957 and 90.7%/88.1%, respectively. The diagnostic specificity and sensitivity of the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2 assay for both nasopharyngeal carcinoma and early-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma were higher than that of mono-antibody detection by immune-enzymatic assay and real-time PCR (EBV DNA). In the VCA-IgA-negative group, 82.6% of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients showed high probability for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and the negative predictive value was 97.1%. In the VCA-IgA-positive group, 73.3% of healthy subjects showed low probability. The positive predictive value reached 98.2% in this group. The nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk probability value determined by the EUROLINE Anti-EBV Profile 2 might be a suitable tool for nasopharyngeal carcinoma screening. Cancer Prev Res; 10(9); 542-50. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Application of Recursive Partitioning to Derive and Validate a Claims-Based Algorithm for Identifying Keratinocyte Carcinoma (Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer).

PubMed

Chan, An-Wen; Fung, Kinwah; Tran, Jennifer M; Kitchen, Jessica; Austin, Peter C; Weinstock, Martin A; Rochon, Paula A

2016-10-01

Keratinocyte carcinoma (nonmelanoma skin cancer) accounts for substantial burden in terms of high incidence and health care costs but is excluded by most cancer registries in North America. Administrative health insurance claims databases offer an opportunity to identify these cancers using diagnosis and procedural codes submitted for reimbursement purposes. To apply recursive partitioning to derive and validate a claims-based algorithm for identifying keratinocyte carcinoma with high sensitivity and specificity. Retrospective study using population-based administrative databases linked to 602 371 pathology episodes from a community laboratory for adults residing in Ontario, Canada, from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2009. The final analysis was completed in January 2016. We used recursive partitioning (classification trees) to derive an algorithm based on health insurance claims. The performance of the derived algorithm was compared with 5 prespecified algorithms and validated using an independent academic hospital clinic data set of 2082 patients seen in May and June 2011. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value using the histopathological diagnosis as the criterion standard. We aimed to achieve maximal specificity, while maintaining greater than 80% sensitivity. Among 602 371 pathology episodes, 131 562 (21.8%) had a diagnosis of keratinocyte carcinoma. Our final derived algorithm outperformed the 5 simple prespecified algorithms and performed well in both community and hospital data sets in terms of sensitivity (82.6% and 84.9%, respectively), specificity (93.0% and 99.0%, respectively), positive predictive value (76.7% and 69.2%, respectively), and negative predictive value (95.0% and 99.6%, respectively). Algorithm performance did not vary substantially during the 18-year period. This algorithm offers a reliable mechanism for ascertaining keratinocyte carcinoma for epidemiological research in the absence of cancer registry data. Our findings also demonstrate the value of recursive partitioning in deriving valid claims-based algorithms.

Estimating a Preference-Based Index from the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation–Outcome Measure (CORE-OM)

PubMed Central

Brazier, John E.; Rowen, Donna; Barkham, Michael

2013-01-01

Background. The Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation–Outcome Measure (CORE-OM) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of psychological therapies in people with common mental disorders. The objective of this study was to estimate a preference-based index for this population using CORE-6D, a health state classification system derived from the CORE-OM consisting of a 5-item emotional component and a physical item, and to demonstrate a novel method for generating states that are not orthogonal. Methods. Rasch analysis was used to identify 11 emotional health states from CORE-6D that were frequently observed in the study population and are, thus, plausible (in contrast, conventional statistical design might generate implausible states). Combined with the 3 response levels of the physical item of CORE-6D, they generate 33 plausible health states, 18 of which were selected for valuation. A valuation survey of 220 members of the public in South Yorkshire, United Kingdom, was undertaken using the time tradeoff (TTO) method. Regression analysis was subsequently used to predict values for all possible states described by CORE-6D. Results. A number of multivariate regression models were built to predict values for the 33 health states of CORE-6D, using the Rasch logit value of the emotional state and the response level of the physical item as independent variables. A cubic model with high predictive value (adjusted R2 = 0.990) was selected to predict TTO values for all 729 CORE-6D health states. Conclusion. The CORE-6D preference-based index will enable the assessment of cost-effectiveness of interventions for people with common mental disorders using existing and prospective CORE-OM data sets. The new method for generating states may be useful for other instruments with highly correlated dimensions. PMID:23178639

Use of admission serum lactate and sodium levels to predict mortality in necrotizing soft-tissue infections.

PubMed

Yaghoubian, Arezou; de Virgilio, Christian; Dauphine, Christine; Lewis, Roger J; Lin, Matthew

2007-09-01

Simple admission laboratory values can be used to classify patients with necrotizing soft-tissue infection (NSTI) into high and low mortality risk groups. Chart review. Public teaching hospital. All patients with NSTI from 1997 through 2006. Variables analyzed included medical history, admission vital signs, laboratory values, and microbiologic findings. Data analyses included univariate and classification and regression tree analyses. Mortality. One hundred twenty-four patients were identified with NSTI. The overall mortality rate was 21 of 124 (17%). On univariate analysis, factors associated with mortality included a history of cancer (P = .03), intravenous drug abuse (P < .001), low systolic blood pressure on admission (P = .03), base deficit (P = .009), and elevated white blood cell count (P = .06). On exploratory classification and regression tree analysis, admission serum lactate and sodium levels were predictors of mortality, with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 28%, positive predictive value of 23%, and negative predictive value of 100%. A serum lactate level greater than or equal to 54.1 mg/dL (6 mmol/L) alone was associated with a 32% mortality, whereas a serum sodium level greater than or equal to 135 mEq/L combined with a lactate level less than 54.1 mg/dL was associated with a mortality of 0%. Mortality for NSTIs remains high. A simple model, using admission serum lactate and serum sodium levels, may help identify patients at greatest risk for death.

Yield of MRI, high-density electric source imaging (HD-ESI), SPECT and PET in epilepsy surgery candidates.

PubMed

Lascano, Agustina M; Perneger, Thomas; Vulliemoz, Serge; Spinelli, Laurent; Garibotto, Valentina; Korff, Christian M; Vargas, Maria I; Michel, Christoph M; Seeck, Margitta

2016-01-01

Preoperative workup aims at localizing the epileptogenic focus to achieve postoperative seizure-freedom. We studied the predictive value of non-invasive techniques, i.e. structural magnetic resonance imaging [MRI], high-density electric source imaging [HD-ESI] and metabolic imaging (positron emission tomography [PET]; single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), in surgically treated patients. A prospective study of 190 epileptic operated patients, with >12 months follow-up and analyzed with state-of-the-art algorithms. 58 patients underwent all techniques. We computed sensitivity, specificity, predictive value and diagnostic odds ratio (OR) in relation to postoperative outcome. Of 190 patients, 148 (77.9%) were seizure-free at follow-up. Resection of the epileptogenic focus was associated with favorable postsurgical outcome (p<0.05). Among 58 patients who underwent all tests, only MRI and HD-ESI were favorable outcome predictors (MRI: OR 10.9, p=0.004; HD-ESI: OR 13.1, p=0.004). Patients with concordant structural MRI and HD-ESI results had 92.3% (24/26) probability of favorable outcome. When both results were negative, probability was 0% (0/5); and when they disagreed, it was 63.0% (17/27). Combination of MRI and HD-ESI offered the highest predictive value for postoperative seizure-freedom. This finding highlights the added value of HD-ESI in the presurgical workup, in particular in combination with an informative MRI. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Various Anthropometric Indices as Risk Factors for Hearing Impairment in Asian Women.

PubMed

Kang, Seok Hui; Jung, Da Jung; Lee, Kyu Yup; Choi, Eun Woo; Do, Jun Young

2015-01-01

The objective of the present study was to examine the associations between various anthropometric measures and metabolic syndrome and hearing impairment in Asian women. We identified 11,755 women who underwent voluntary routine health checkups at Yeungnam University Hospital between June 2008 and April 2014. Among these patients, 2,485 participants were <40 years old, and 1,072 participants lacked information regarding their laboratory findings or hearing and were therefore excluded. In total 8,198 participants were recruited into our study. The AUROC value for metabolic syndrome was 0.790 for the waist to hip ratio (WHR). The cutoff value was 0.939. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting metabolic syndrome were 72.7% and 71.7%, respectively. The AUROC value for hearing loss was 0.758 for WHR. The cutoff value was 0.932. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting hearing loss were 65.8% and 73.4%, respectively. The WHR had the highest AUC and was the best predictor of metabolic syndrome and hearing loss. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses showed that WHR levels were positively associated with four hearing thresholds including averaged hearing threshold and low, middle, and high frequency thresholds. In addition, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that those with a high WHR had a 1.347-fold increased risk of hearing loss compared with the participants with a low WHR. Our results demonstrated that WHR may be a surrogate marker for predicting the risk of hearing loss resulting from metabolic syndrome.

Developmental interplay between children’s biobehavioral risk and the parenting environment from toddler to early school age: Prediction of socialization outcomes in preadolescence

PubMed Central

Kochanska, Grazyna; Boldt, Lea J.; Kim, Sanghag; Yoon, Jeung Eun; Philibert, Robert A.

2014-01-01

We followed 100 community families from toddler age to preadolescence. Each mother- and father-child dyad was observed at 25, 38, 52, 67, and 80 months (10 hours per child) to assess positive and power-assertive parenting. At age 10 (N=82), we obtained parent- and child-reported outcome measures of children’s acceptance of parental socialization: cooperation with parental monitoring, negative attitude toward substance use, internalization of adult values, and callous-unemotional (CU) tendencies. Children who carried a short 5-HTTLPR allele and were highly anger prone, based on anger observed in laboratory from 25 to 80 months, were classified as high in biobehavioral risk. The remaining children were classified as low in biobehavioral risk. Biobehavioral risk moderated links between parenting history and outcomes. For low-risk children, parenting measures were unrelated to outcomes. For children high in biobehavioral risk, variations in positive parenting predicted cooperation with monitoring and negative attitude toward substance use, and variations in power-assertive parenting predicted internalization of adult values and CU tendencies. Suboptimal parenting combined with high biobehavioral risk resulted in the poorest outcomes. The effect for attitude toward substance use supported differential susceptibility: Children high in biobehavioral risk who received optimal parenting had a more adaptive outcome than their low-risk peers. The remaining effects were consistent with diathesis-stress. PMID:25154427

A modified fall risk assessment tool that is specific to physical function predicts falls in community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Hirase, Tatsuya; Inokuchi, Shigeru; Matsusaka, Nobuou; Nakahara, Kazumi; Okita, Minoru

2014-01-01

Developing a practical fall risk assessment tool to predict the occurrence of falls in the primary care setting is important because investigators have reported deterioration of physical function associated with falls. Researchers have used many performance tests to predict the occurrence of falls. These performance tests predict falls and also assess physical function and determine exercise interventions. However, the need for such specialists as physical therapists to accurately conduct these tests limits their use in the primary care setting. Questionnaires for fall prediction offer an easy way to identify high-risk fallers without requiring specialists. Using an existing fall assessment questionnaire, this study aimed to identify items specific to physical function and determine whether those items were able to predict falls and estimate physical function of high-risk fallers. The analysis consisted of both retrospective and prospective studies and used 2 different samples (retrospective, n = 1871; prospective, n = 292). The retrospective study and 3-month prospective study comprised community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older and older adults using community day centers. The number of falls, risk factors for falls (15 risk factors on the questionnaire), and physical function determined by chair standing test (CST) and Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) were assessed. The retrospective study selected fall risk factors related to physical function. The prospective study investigated whether the number of selected risk factors could predict falls. The predictive power was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Seven of the 15 risk factors were related to physical function. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors was 0.82 (P = .00). The best cutoff point was 4 risk factors, with sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 68%, respectively. The mean values for the CST and TUGT at the best cutoff point were 12.9 and 12.5 seconds, respectively. In the retrospective study, the values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point from the prospective study were 13.2 and 11.4 seconds, respectively. This study confirms that a screening tool comprising 7 fall risk factors can be used to predict falls. The values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point for the selected 7 risk factors determined in our prospective study were similar to the cutoff points for the CST and TUGT in previous studies for fall prediction. We propose that the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors may be identified as the estimated value for physical function. These findings may contribute to earlier identification of high-risk fallers and intervention for fall prevention.

Pressure-induced structural phase transition in transition metal carbides TMC (TM = Ru, Rh, Pd, Os, Ir, Pt): a DFT study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, M.; Rajeswarapalanichamy, R.; Iyakutti, K.

2018-03-01

First-principles calculations based on density functional theory was performed to analyse the structural stability of transition metal carbides TMC (TM = Ru, Rh, Pd, Os, Ir, Pt). It is observed that zinc-blende phase is the most stable one for these carbides. Pressure-induced structural phase transition from zinc blende to NiAs phase is predicted at the pressures of 248.5 GPa, 127 GPa and 142 GPa for OsC, IrC and PtC, respectively. The electronic structure reveals that RuC exhibits a semiconducting behaviour with an energy gap of 0.7056 eV. The high bulk modulus values of these carbides indicate that these metal carbides are super hard materials. The high B/G value predicts that the carbides are ductile in their most stable phase.

Low Magnesium Levels and FGF-23 Dysregulation Predict Mitral Valve Calcification as well as Intima Media Thickness in Predialysis Diabetic Patients

PubMed Central

Jerónimo, Teresa; Fragoso, André; Silva, Claudia; Guilherme, Patrícia; Santos, Nélio; Faísca, Marília; Neves, Pedro

2015-01-01

Background. Mitral valve calcification and intima media thickness (IMT) are common complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD) implicated with high cardiovascular mortality. Objective. To investigate the implication of magnesium and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) levels with mitral valve calcification and IMT in CKD diabetic patients. Methods. Observational, prospective study involving 150 diabetic patients with mild to moderate CKD, divided according to Wilkins Score. Carotid-echodoppler and transthoracic echocardiography were used to assess calcification. Statistical tests used to establish comparisons between groups, to identify risk factors, and to establish cut-off points for prediction of mitral valve calcification. Results. FGF-23 values continually increased with higher values for both IMT and calcification whereas the opposite trend was observed for magnesium. FGF-23 and magnesium were found to independently predict mitral valve calcification and IMT (P < 0.05). Using Kaplan-Meier analysis, the number of deaths was higher in patients with lower magnesium levels and poorer Wilkins score. The mean cut-off value for FGF-23 was 117 RU/mL and for magnesium 1.7 mg/dL. Conclusions. Hypomagnesemia and high FGF-23 levels are independent predictors of mitral valve calcification and IMT and are risk factors for cardiovascular mortality in this population. They might be used as diagnostic/therapeutic targets in order to better manage the high cardiovascular risk in CKD patients. PMID:26089881

Preschool children's vision screening in New Zealand: a retrospective evaluation of referral accuracy.

PubMed

Langeslag-Smith, Miriam A; Vandal, Alain C; Briane, Vincent; Thompson, Benjamin; Anstice, Nicola S

2015-11-27

To assess the accuracy of preschool vision screening in a large, ethnically diverse, urban population in South Auckland, New Zealand. Retrospective longitudinal study. B4 School Check vision screening records (n=5572) were compared with hospital eye department data for children referred from screening due to impaired acuity in one or both eyes who attended a referral appointment (n=556). False positive screens were identified by comparing screening data from the eyes that failed screening with hospital data. Estimation of false negative screening rates relied on data from eyes that passed screening. Data were analysed using logistic regression modelling accounting for the high correlation between results for the two eyes of each child. Positive predictive value of the preschool vision screening programme. Screening produced high numbers of false positive referrals, resulting in poor positive predictive value (PPV=31%, 95% CI 26% to 38%). High estimated negative predictive value (NPV=92%, 95% CI 88% to 95%) suggested most children with a vision disorder were identified at screening. Relaxing the referral criteria for acuity from worse than 6/9 to worse than 6/12 improved PPV without adversely affecting NPV. The B4 School Check generated numerous false positive referrals and consequently had a low PPV. There is scope for reducing costs by altering the visual acuity criterion for referral. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Effects of aging on value-directed modulation of semantic network activity during verbal learning

PubMed Central

Cohen, Michael S.; Rissman, Jesse; Suthana, Nanthia A.; Castel, Alan D.; Knowlton, Barbara J.

2015-01-01

While impairments in memory recall are apparent in aging, older adults show a remarkably preserved ability to selectively remember information deemed valuable. Here, we use fMRI to compare brain activation in healthy older and younger adults during encoding of high and low value words to determine whether there are differences in how older adults achieve value-directed memory selectivity. We find that memory selectivity in older adults is associated with value-related changes in activation during word presentation in left hemisphere regions that are involved in semantic processing, similar to young adults. However, highly selective young adults show a relatively greater increase in semantic network activity during encoding of high-value items, whereas highly selective older adults show relatively diminished activity during encoding of low-value items. Additionally, only younger adults showed value-related increases in activity in semantic and reward processing regions during presentation of the value cue preceding each to-be-remembered word. Young adults therefore respond to cue value more proactively than do older adults, yet the magnitude of value-related differences in cue period brain activity did not predict individual differences in memory selectivity. Thus, our data also show that age-related reductions in prestimulus activity do not always lead to inefficient performance. PMID:26244278

Breast cancer mammographic diagnosis performance in a public health institution: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Mello, Juliana M R B; Bittelbrunn, Fernando P; Rockenbach, Marcio A B C; May, Guilherme G; Vedolin, Leonardo M; Kruger, Marilia S; Soldatelli, Matheus D; Zwetsch, Guilherme; de Miranda, Gabriel T F; Teixeira, Saone I P; Arruda, Bruna S

2017-12-01

To evaluate the quality assurance of mammography results at a reference institution for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer in southern Brazil, based on the BIRADS (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System) 5th edition recommendations for auditing purposes. Retrospective cohort and cross-sectional study with 4502 patients (9668 mammographies)) who underwent at least one or both breast mammographies throughout 2013 at a regional public hospital, linked to a federal public university. The results were followed until 31 December 2014, including true positives (TPs), true negatives (TNs), false positives (FPs), false negatives (FNs), positive predictive values (PPVs), negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity and specificity, with a confidence interval of 95%. The study showed high quality assurance, particularly regarding sensitivity (90.22%) and specificity (92.31%). The overall positive predictive value (PPV) was 65.35%, and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 98.32%. The abnormal interpretation rate (recall rate) was 12.26%. The results are appropriate when compared to the values proposed by the BIRADS 5th edition. Additionally, the study provided self-reflection considering our radiological practice, which is essential for improvements and collaboration regarding breast cancer detection. It may stimulate better radiological practice performance and continuing education, despite possible infrastructure and facility limitations. • Accurate quality performance rates are possible despite financial and governmental limitations. • Low-income institutions should develop standardised teamwork to improve radiological practice. • Regular mammography audits may help to increase the quality of public health systems.

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

PubMed Central

Purcell, Steven W.; Polidoro, Beth A.; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U.; Mercier, Annie

2014-01-01

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates. PMID:24598425

Antibodies to native DNA and serum complement (C3) levels. Application to diagnosis and classification of systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Weinstein, A; Bordwell, B; Stone, B; Tibbetts, C; Rothfield, N F

1983-02-01

The sensitivity and specificity of the presence of antibodies to native DNA and low serum C3 levels were investigated in a prospective study in 98 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who were followed for a mean of 38.4 months. Hospitalized patients, patients with other connective tissue diseases, and subjects without any disease served as the control group. Seventy-two percent of the patients with systemic lupus erythematosus had a high DNA-binding value (more than 33 percent) initially, and an additional 20 percent had a high DNA-binding value later in the course of the illness. Similarly, C3 levels were low (less than 81 mg/100 ml) in 38 percent of the patients with systemic lupus erythematosus initially and in 66 percent of the patients at any time during the study. High DNA-binding and low C3 levels each showed extremely high predictive value (94 percent) for the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus when applied in a patient population in which that diagnosis was considered. The presence of both abnormalities was 100 percent correct in predicting the diagnosis os systemic lupus erythematosus. Both tests should be included in future criteria for the diagnosis and classification of systemic lupus erythematosus.

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood.

PubMed

Purcell, Steven W; Polidoro, Beth A; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U; Mercier, Annie

2014-04-22

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.

Mapping Surface Soil Organic Carbon for Crop Fields with Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Feng; Kissel, David E.; West, Larry T.; Rickman, Doug; Luvall, J. C.; Adkins, Wayne

2004-01-01

The organic C concentration of surface soil can be used in agricultural fields to vary crop production inputs. Organic C is often highly spatially variable, so that maps of soil organic C can be used to vary crop production inputs using precision farming technology. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the feasibility of mapping soil organic C on three fields, using remotely sensed images of the fields with a bare surface. Enough soil samples covering the range in soil organic C must be taken from each field to develop a satisfactory relationship between soil organic C content and image reflectance values. The number of soil samples analyzed in the three fields varied from 22 to 26. The regression equations differed between fields, but gave highly significant relationships with R2 values of 0.93, 0.95, and 0.89 for the three fields. A comparison of predicted and measured values of soil organic C for an independent set of 2 soil samples taken on one of the fields gave highly satisfactory results, with a comparison equation of % organic C measured + 1.02% organic C predicted, with r2 = 0.87.

Predictive value of stroke discharge diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Register.

PubMed

Lühdorf, Pernille; Overvad, Kim; Schmidt, Erik B; Johnsen, Søren P; Bach, Flemming W

2017-08-01

To determine the positive predictive values for stroke discharge diagnoses, including subarachnoidal haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral infarction in the Danish National Patient Register. Participants in the Danish cohort study Diet, Cancer and Health with a stroke discharge diagnosis in the National Patient Register between 1993 and 2009 were identified and their medical records were retrieved for validation of the diagnoses. A total of 3326 records of possible cases of stroke were reviewed. The overall positive predictive value for stroke was 69.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67.8-70.9%). The predictive values differed according to hospital characteristics, with the highest predictive value of 87.8% (95% CI 85.5-90.1%) found in departments of neurology and the lowest predictive value of 43.0% (95% CI 37.6-48.5%) found in outpatient clinics. The overall stroke diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Register had a limited predictive value. We therefore recommend the critical use of non-validated register data for research on stroke. The possibility of optimising the predictive values based on more advanced algorithms should be considered.

Performance of highly sensitive cardiac troponin T assay to detect ischaemia at PET-CT in low-risk patients with acute coronary syndrome: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Morawiec, Beata; Fournier, Stephane; Tapponnier, Maxime; Prior, John O; Monney, Pierre; Dunet, Vincent; Lauriers, Nathalie; Recordon, Frederique; Trana, Catalina; Iglesias, Juan-Fernando; Kawecki, Damian; Boulat, Olivier; Bardy, Daniel; Lamsidri, Sabine; Eeckhout, Eric; Hugli, Olivier; Muller, Olivier

2017-07-10

Highly sensitive troponin T (hs-TnT) assay has improved clinical decision-making for patients admitted with chest pain. However, this assay's performance in detecting myocardial ischaemia in a lowrisk population has been poorly documented. To assess hs-TnT assay's performance to detect myocardial ischaemia at positron emission tomography/CT (PET-CT) in low-risk patients admitted with chest pain. Patients admitted for chest pain with a nonconclusive ECG and negative standard cardiac troponin T results at admission and after 6 hours were prospectively enrolled. Their hs-TnT samples were at T0, T2 and T6. Physicians were blinded to hs-TnT results. All patients underwent a PET-CT at rest and during adenosine-induced stress. All patients with a positive PET-CT result underwent a coronary angiography. Forty-eight patients were included. Six had ischaemia at PET-CT. All of them had ≥1 significant stenosis at coronary angiography. Areas under the curve (95% CI) for predicting significant ischaemia at PET-CT using hs-TnT were 0.764 (0.515 to 1.000) at T0, 0.812(0.616 to 1.000) at T2 and 0.813(0.638 to 0.989) at T6. The receiver operating characteristicbased optimal cut-off value for hs-TnT at T0, T2 and T6 needed to exclude significant ischaemia at PET-CT was <4 ng/L. Using this value, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of hs-TnT to predict significant ischaemia were 83%/38%/16%/94% at T0, 100%/40%/19%/100% at T2 and 100%/43%/20%/100% at T6, respectively. Our findings suggest that in low-risk patients, using the hs-TnT assay with a cut-off value of 4 ng/L demonstrates excellent negative predictive value to exclude myocardial ischaemia detection at PET-CT, at the expense of weak specificity and positive predictive value. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01374607. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Cerebrospinal fluid lactate: a differential biomarker for bacterial and viral meningitis in children.

PubMed

Nazir, Mudasir; Wani, Wasim Ahmad; Malik, Muzaffar Ahmad; Mir, Mohd Rafiq; Ashraf, Younis; Kawoosa, Khalid; Ali, Syed Wajid

To assess the performance of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lactate as a biomarker to differentiate bacterial meningitis from viral meningitis in children, and to define an optimal CSF lactate concentration that can be called significant for the differentiation. Children with clinical findings compatible with meningitis were studied. CSF lactate and other conventional CSF parameters were recorded. At a cut-off value of 3mmol/L, CSF lactate had a sensitivity of 0.90, specificity of 1.0, positive predictive value of 1.0, and negative predictive value of 0.963, with an accuracy of 0.972. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.6 and 0.1, respectively. When comparing between bacterial and viral meningitis, the area under the curve for CSF lactate was 0.979. The authors concluded that CSF lactate has high sensitivity and specificity in differentiating bacterial from viral meningitis. While at a cut-off value of 3mmol/L, CSF lactate has high diagnostic accuracy for bacterial meningitis, mean levels in viral meningitis remain essentially below 2mmol/L. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Focal shift and the axial optical coordinate for high-aperture systems of finite Fresnel number.

PubMed

Sheppard, Colin J R; Török, Peter

2003-11-01

Analytic expressions are given for the on-axis intensity predicted by the Rayleigh-Sommerfeld and Kirchhoff diffraction integrals for a scalar optical system of high numerical aperture and finite value of Fresnel number. A definition of the axial optical coordinate is introduced that is valid for finite values of Fresnel number, for high-aperture systems, and for observation points distant from the focus. The focal shift effect is reexamined. For the case when the focal shift is small, explicit expressions are given for the focal shift and the axial peak in intensity.

Developing and validating a predictive model for stroke progression.

PubMed

Craig, L E; Wu, O; Gilmour, H; Barber, M; Langhorne, P

2011-01-01

Progression is believed to be a common and important complication in acute stroke, and has been associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Reliable identification of predictors of early neurological deterioration could potentially benefit routine clinical care. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of early stroke progression using two independent patient cohorts. Two patient cohorts were used for this study - the first cohort formed the training data set, which included consecutive patients admitted to an urban teaching hospital between 2000 and 2002, and the second cohort formed the test data set, which included patients admitted to the same hospital between 2003 and 2004. A standard definition of stroke progression was used. The first cohort (n = 863) was used to develop the model. Variables that were statistically significant (p < 0.1) on univariate analysis were included in the multivariate model. Logistic regression was the technique employed using backward stepwise regression to drop the least significant variables (p > 0.1) in turn. The second cohort (n = 216) was used to test the performance of the model. The performance of the predictive model was assessed in terms of both calibration and discrimination. Multiple imputation methods were used for dealing with the missing values. Variables shown to be significant predictors of stroke progression were conscious level, history of coronary heart disease, presence of hyperosmolarity, CT lesion, living alone on admission, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, presence of pyrexia and smoking status. The model appears to have reasonable discriminative properties [the median receiver-operating characteristic curve value was 0.72 (range 0.72-0.73)] and to fit well with the observed data, which is indicated by the high goodness-of-fit p value [the median p value from the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.90 (range 0.50-0.92)]. The predictive model developed in this study contains variables that can be easily collected in practice therefore increasing its usability in clinical practice. Using this analysis approach, the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.

Predictive value of high-sensitivity troponin-I for future adverse cardiovascular outcome in stable patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I(hs-TnI) and T levels(hs-TnT) are sensitive biomarkers of cardiomyocyte turnover or necrosis. Prior studies of the predictive role of hs-TnT in type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) patients have yielded conflicting results. This study aimed to determine whether hs-TnI, which is detectable in a higher proportion of normal subjects than hsTnT, is associated with a major adverse cardiovascular event(MACE) in T2DM patients. Methods and results We compared hs-TnI level in stored serum samples from 276 consecutive patients (mean age 65 ± 10 years; 57% male) with T2DM with that of 115 age-and sex-matched controls. All T2DM patients were prospectively followed up for at least 4 years for incidence of MACE including heart failure(HF), myocardial infarction(MI) and cardiovascular mortality. At baseline, 274(99%) patients with T2DM had detectable hs-TnI, and 57(21%) had elevated hs-TnI (male: 8.5 ng/L, female: 7.6 ng/L, above the 99th percentile in healthy controls). A total of 43 MACE occurred: HF(n = 18), MI(n = 11) and cardiovascular mortality(n = 14). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that an elevated hs-TnI was associated with MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Although multivariate analysis revealed that an elevated hs-TnI independently predicted MACE, it had limited sensitivity(62.7%) and positive predictive value(38.5%). Contrary to this, a normal hs-TnI level had an excellent negative predictive value(92.2%) for future MACE in patients with T2DM. Conclusion The present study demonstrates that elevated hs-TnI in patients with T2DM is associated with increased MACE, HF, MI and cardiovascular mortality. Importantly, a normal hs-TnI level has an excellent negative predictive value for future adverse cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up. PMID:24661773

Classifying injury narratives of large administrative databases for surveillance-A practical approach combining machine learning ensembles and human review.

PubMed

Marucci-Wellman, Helen R; Corns, Helen L; Lehto, Mark R

2017-01-01

Injury narratives are now available real time and include useful information for injury surveillance and prevention. However, manual classification of the cause or events leading to injury found in large batches of narratives, such as workers compensation claims databases, can be prohibitive. In this study we compare the utility of four machine learning algorithms (Naïve Bayes, Single word and Bi-gram models, Support Vector Machine and Logistic Regression) for classifying narratives into Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Injury and Illness event leading to injury classifications for a large workers compensation database. These algorithms are known to do well classifying narrative text and are fairly easy to implement with off-the-shelf software packages such as Python. We propose human-machine learning ensemble approaches which maximize the power and accuracy of the algorithms for machine-assigned codes and allow for strategic filtering of rare, emerging or ambiguous narratives for manual review. We compare human-machine approaches based on filtering on the prediction strength of the classifier vs. agreement between algorithms. Regularized Logistic Regression (LR) was the best performing algorithm alone. Using this algorithm and filtering out the bottom 30% of predictions for manual review resulted in high accuracy (overall sensitivity/positive predictive value of 0.89) of the final machine-human coded dataset. The best pairings of algorithms included Naïve Bayes with Support Vector Machine whereby the triple ensemble NB SW =NB BI-GRAM =SVM had very high performance (0.93 overall sensitivity/positive predictive value and high accuracy (i.e. high sensitivity and positive predictive values)) across both large and small categories leaving 41% of the narratives for manual review. Integrating LR into this ensemble mix improved performance only slightly. For large administrative datasets we propose incorporation of methods based on human-machine pairings such as we have done here, utilizing readily-available off-the-shelf machine learning techniques and resulting in only a fraction of narratives that require manual review. Human-machine ensemble methods are likely to improve performance over total manual coding. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing Invasive Candidiasis.

PubMed

Clancy, Cornelius J; Nguyen, M Hong

2018-05-01

Cultures are negative in ∼50% of invasive candidiasis. Data are emerging for the performance of nonculture tests such as mannan/antimannan, Candida albicans germ tube antibody, 1,3-β-d-glucan, PCR, and the T2Candida panel in diagnosing both candidemia and deep-seated candidiasis. In most settings, positive predictive values of nonculture test are low, and negative predictive values are high. For tests to be useful, clinicians must understand the pretest likelihood of invasive candidiasis and test performance for the most common disease manifestation in a given patient. This paper reviews nonculture Candida diagnostics and discusses how they might be used effectively in patient care. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.

Investigation of a liquid-fed water resistojet plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manzella, D. H.; Carney, L. M.

1989-01-01

Measurements of mass flux and flow angle were taken throughout the forward flow region of the exhaust of a liquid-fed water resistojet using a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM). The resistojet operated at a mass flow rate of 0.1 g/s with a power input of 330 Watts. Measured values were compared to theoretical predictions obtained by employing a source flow approximation. Excellent agreement between predicted and measured mass flux values was attained; however, this agreement was highly dependent on knowledge of nozzle flow conditions. Measurements of the temperature at which the exhaust condensed on the QCM were obtained as a function of incident mass flux.

Translation, adaptation, and validation of the Sunderland Scale and the Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale in Portuguese

PubMed Central

Sousa, Bruno

2013-01-01

Objective To translate into Portuguese and evaluate the measuring properties of the Sunderland Scale and the Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale, which are instruments for evaluating the risk of developing pressure ulcers during intensive care. Methods This study included the process of translation and adaptation of the scales to the Portuguese language, as well as the validation of these tools. To assess the reliability, Cronbach alpha values of 0.702 to 0.708 were identified for the Sunderland Scale and the Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale, respectively. The validation criteria (predictive) were performed comparatively with the Braden Scale (gold standard), and the main measurements evaluated were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve, which were calculated based on cutoff points. Results The Sunderland Scale exhibited 60% sensitivity, 86.7% specificity, 47.4% positive predictive value, 91.5% negative predictive value, and 0.86 for the area under the curve. The Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale exhibited 73.3% sensitivity, 86.7% specificity, 52.4% positive predictive value, 94.2% negative predictive value, and 0.91 for the area under the curve. The Braden scale exhibited 100% sensitivity, 5.3% specificity, 17.4% positive predictive value, 100% negative predictive value, and 0.72 for the area under the curve. Conclusions Both tools demonstrated reliability and validity for this sample. The Cubbin & Jackson Revised Scale yielded better predictive values for the development of pressure ulcers during intensive care. PMID:23917975

A fluctuating plume dispersion model for the prediction of odour-impact frequencies from continuous stationary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mussio, P.; Gnyp, A. W.; Henshaw, P. F.

A fluctuating plume dispersion model has been developed to facilitate the prediction of odour-impact frequencies in the communities surrounding elevated point sources. The model was used to predict the frequencies of occurrence of odours of various magnitudes for 1 h periods. In addition, the model predicted the maximum odour level. The model was tested with an extensive set of data collected in the residential areas surrounding the paint shop of an automotive assembly plant. Most of the perceived odours in the vicinity of the 64, 46 m high stacks ranged between 2 and 7 odour units and generally persisted for less than 30 s. Ninety-eight different field determinations of odour impact frequencies within 1 km of the plant were conducted during the course of the study. To simplify evaluation, the frequencies of occurrence of different odour levels were summed to give the total frequency of occurrence of all readily detectable (>2 OU) odours. The model provided excellent simulation of the total frequencies of occurrence where the odour was frequent (i.e . readily detectable more than 30% of the time). At lower frequencies of occurrence the model prediction was poor. The stability class did not seem to affect the model's ability to predict field frequency values. However, the model provided excellent predictions of the maximum odour levels without being sensitive to either stability class or distance from the source. Ninety-five percent of the predicted maximum values were within a factor of two of the measured field maximum values.

Solubility Measurements and Predictions of Gypsum, Anhydrite, and Calcite Over Wide Ranges of Temperature, Pressure, and Ionic Strength with Mixed Electrolytes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Zhaoyi; Kan, Amy T.; Shi, Wei; Zhang, Nan; Zhang, Fangfu; Yan, Fei; Bhandari, Narayan; Zhang, Zhang; Liu, Ya; Ruan, Gedeng; Tomson, Mason B.

2017-02-01

Today's oil and gas production from deep reservoirs permits exploitation of more oil and gas reserves but increases risks due to conditions of high temperature and high pressure. Predicting mineral solubility under such extreme conditions is critical for mitigating scaling risks, a common and costly problem. Solubility predictions use solubility products and activity coefficients, commonly from Pitzer theory virial coefficients. However, inaccurate activity coefficients and solubility data have limited accurate mineral solubility predictions and applications of the Pitzer theory. This study measured gypsum solubility under its stable phase conditions up to 1400 bar; it also confirmed the anhydrite solubility reported in the literature. Using a novel method, the virial coefficients for Ca2+ and {{SO}}4^{2 - } (i.e., β_{{{{CaSO}}4 }}^{(0)} ,β_{{{{CaSO}}4 }}^{(2)} ,C_{{{{CaSO}}4 }}^{φ }) were calculated over wide ranges of temperature and pressure (0-250 °C and 1-1400 bar). The determination of this set of virial coefficients widely extends the applicable temperature and pressure ranges of the Pitzer theory in Ca2+ and SO 4 2- systems. These coefficients can be applied to improve the prediction of calcite solubility in the presence of high concentrations of Ca2+ and SO 4 2- ions. These new virial coefficients can also be used to predict the solubilities of gypsum and anhydrite accurately. Moreover, based on the derived β_{{{{CaSO}}4 }}^{(2)} values in this study, the association constants of {{CaSO}}4^{( 0 )} at 1 bar and 25 °C can be estimated by K_{{assoc}} = - 2β_{{{{CaSO}}4 }}^{(2)}. These values match very well with those reported in the literature based on other methods.

[Value of DC and DRs in prediction of cardiovascular events in acute myocardial infarction patients].

PubMed

Gao, L; Chen, Y D; Shi, Y J; Xue, H; Wang, J L

2016-05-24

To investigate the value of deceleration capacity of rate (DC) and heart rate deceleration runs(DRs) in predicting cardiovascular events in patient with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study included 166 patients with AMI, who underwent ECG with sinus rhythm.These patients were followed-up for major adverse cardiac events (MACE). The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn to determine the best values for estimating the MACE. The mean follow-up time was (20.5±2.8) months, with 13 cases of cardiac death.There was statistically significant difference of DC, DRs and standard diviation of NN intervals(SDNN-24) between the death group and survival group.The area under the curve (AUC) of DC, DR4 and DR8 were larger than SDNN-24 (0.874, 0.804 vs 0.727). The values of DC, DR2, DR4 and root mean square of the successive differences(RMSSD) in the group of patients who underwent cardiac adverse events were smaller than the group of patients who didn't, and the AUC of DC was slightly higher than that of RMSSD. DC and DRs have important predictive value for cardiac death and MACE and can screen high-risk patients in patients with AMI.

High-pressure phase transitions - Examples of classical predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celebonovic, Vladan

1992-09-01

The applicability of the Savic and Kasanin (1962-1967) classical theory of dense matter to laboratory experiments requiring estimates of high-pressure phase transitions was examined by determining phase transition pressures for a set of 19 chemical substances (including elements, hydrocarbons, metal oxides, and salts) for which experimental data were available. A comparison between experimental and transition points and those predicted by the Savic-Kasanin theory showed that the theory can be used for estimating values of transition pressures. The results also support conclusions obtained in previous astronomical applications of the Savic-Kasanin theory.