12 CFR 240.16 - Customer dispute resolution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... resolution. (a) No banking institution shall enter into any agreement or understanding with a retail forex... or grievance regarding any retail forex transaction or disclosure to any settlement procedure. (b) Election of forum. (1) Within 10 business days after the receipt of notice from the retail forex customer...

A resolution calling for free and fair elections in Iran, and for other purposes.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Hoeven, John [R-ND

2013-05-23

Senate - 06/13/2013 Resolution agreed to in Senate with an amendment and an amendment to the Title and an amended preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A comparative analysis of two highly spatially resolved European atmospheric emission inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J.; Guevara, M.; Baldasano, J. M.; Tchepel, O.; Schaap, M.; Miranda, A. I.; Borrego, C.

2013-08-01

A reliable emissions inventory is highly important for air quality modelling applications, especially at regional or local scales, which require high resolutions. Consequently, higher resolution emission inventories have been developed that are suitable for regional air quality modelling. This research performs an inter-comparative analysis of different spatial disaggregation methodologies of atmospheric emission inventories. This study is based on two different European emission inventories with different spatial resolutions: 1) the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) inventory and 2) an emission inventory developed by the TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research). These two emission inventories were converted into three distinct gridded emission datasets as follows: (i) the EMEP emission inventory was disaggregated by area (EMEParea) and (ii) following a more complex methodology (HERMES-DIS - High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System - DISaggregation module) to understand and evaluate the influence of different disaggregation methods; and (iii) the TNO gridded emissions, which are based on different emission data sources and different disaggregation methods. A predefined common grid with a spatial resolution of 12 × 12 km2 was used to compare the three datasets spatially. The inter-comparative analysis was performed by source sector (SNAP - Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) with emission totals for selected pollutants. It included the computation of difference maps (to focus on the spatial variability of emission differences) and a linear regression analysis to calculate the coefficients of determination and to quantitatively measure differences. From the spatial analysis, greater differences were found for residential/commercial combustion (SNAP02), solvent use (SNAP06) and road transport (SNAP07). These findings were related to the different spatial disaggregation that was conducted by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for the first two sectors and to the distinct data sources that were used by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for road transport. Regarding the regression analysis, the greatest correlation occurred between the EMEParea and HERMES-DIS because the latter is derived from the first, which does not occur for the TNO emissions. The greatest correlations were encountered for agriculture NH3 emissions, due to the common use of the CORINE Land Cover database for disaggregation. The point source emissions (energy industries, industrial processes, industrial combustion and extraction/distribution of fossil fuels) resulted in the lowest coefficients of determination. The spatial variability of SOx differed among the emissions that were obtained from the different disaggregation methods. In conclusion, HERMES-DIS and TNO are two distinct emission inventories, both very well discretized and detailed, suitable for air quality modelling. However, the different databases and distinct disaggregation methodologies that were used certainly result in different spatial emission patterns. This fact should be considered when applying regional atmospheric chemical transport models. Future work will focus on the evaluation of air quality models performance and sensitivity to these spatial discrepancies in emission inventories. Air quality modelling will benefit from the availability of appropriate resolution, consistent and reliable emission inventories.

A joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States relating to contributions and expenditures intended to affect elections.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Udall, Tom [D-NM

2013-06-18

Senate - 09/11/2014 Cloture on the joint resolution not invoked in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 54 - 42. Record Vote Number: 261. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Could the outcome of the 2016 US elections have been predicted from past voting patterns?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Peter M. U.; Holloway, Jennifer P.; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko; Ntlangu, Mbulelo B.; Koen, Renee

2018-05-01

In South Africa, a team of analysts has for some years been using statistical techniques to predict election outcomes during election nights in South Africa. The prediction method involves using statistical clusters based on past voting patterns to predict final election outcomes, using a small number of released vote counts. With the US presidential elections in November 2016 hitting the global media headlines during the time period directly after successful predictions were done for the South African elections, the team decided to investigate adapting their meth-od to forecast the final outcome in the US elections. In particular, it was felt that the time zone differences between states would affect the time at which results are released and thereby provide a window of opportunity for doing election night prediction using only the early results from the eastern side of the US. Testing the method on the US presidential elections would have two advantages: it would determine whether the core methodology could be generalised, and whether it would work to include a stronger spatial element in the modelling, since the early results released would be spatially biased due to time zone differences. This paper presents a high-level view of the overall methodology and how it was adapted to predict the results of the US presidential elections. A discussion on the clustering of spatial units within the US is also provided and the spatial distribution of results together with the Electoral College prediction results from both a `test-run' and the final 2016 presidential elections are given and analysed.

Jungle pipeline inspected for corrosion by camera pig

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1984-03-01

Acting on a suspicion that internal corrosion could be affection the integrity of the Cambai-to-Simpans Y line - a 14-in. OD, 36-mile natural gas pipeline in Indonesia's South Sumatra region - Pertamina elected to use GEO Pipeline Services's camera pig to photographically inspect the inner pipe wall's condition. As a result of this inspection, the Indonesian company was able to obtain more than 400 high-resolution photographs surveying the interior of the line, in addition to precise measurements of the corrosion in these areas.

Preoperative predictive model for acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

PubMed

Callejas, Raquel; Panadero, Alfredo; Vives, Marc; Duque, Paula; Echarri, Gemma; Monedero, Pablo

2018-05-11

Predictive models of CS-AKI include emergency surgery and patients with haemodynamic instability. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of validated predictive models (Thakar and Demirjian) in elective cardiac surgery and to propose a better score in the case of poor performance. A prospective, multicentre, observational study was designed. Data were collected from 942 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, after excluding emergency surgery and patients with an intraaortic balloon pump. The main outcome measure was CS-AKI defined by the composite of requiring dialysis or doubling baseline creatinine values. Both models showed poor discrimination in elective surgery (Thakar's model, AUROC = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.50-0.64 and Demirjian's model, AUROC= 0.64, 95% CI = 0.58-0.71). We generated a new model whose significant independent predictors were: anaemia, age, hypertension, obesity, congestive heart failure, previous cardiac surgery and type of surgery. It classifies patients with scores 0-3 as low risk (< 5%), scores 4-7 as medium risk (up to 15%) and scores > 8 as high risk (>30%) of developing CS-AKI with a statistically significant correlation (p <0.001). Our model reflects acceptable discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.66-0.78) which is significantly better than Thakar and Demirjian's models (p<0.01). We developed a new simple predictive model of CS-AKI in elective surgery based on available preoperative information. Our new model is easy to calculate and can be an effective tool for communicating risk to patients and guiding decision-making in the perioperative period. The study requires external validation.

A resolution recognizing the important progress made by the people of Ukraine in the establishment of democratic institutions following the presidential run-off election on February 7, 2010.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Lugar, Richard G. [R-IN

2010-02-25

Senate - 03/04/2010 Resolution agreed to in Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Theoretical Model of Development of Information Competence among Students Enrolled in Elective Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhumasheva, Anara; Zhumabaeva, Zaida; Sakenov, Janat; Vedilina, Yelena; Zhaxylykova, Nuriya; Sekenova, Balkumis

2016-01-01

The current study focuses on the research topic of creating a theoretical model of development of information competence among students enrolled in elective courses. In order to examine specific features of the theoretical model of development of information competence among students enrolled in elective courses, we performed an analysis of…

Air quality over Europe and Iberian Peninsula for 2004 at high horizontal resolution: evaluation of the CALIOPE modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorba, O.; Piot, M.; Pay, M. T.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; López, E.; Pérez, C.; Gassó, S.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-09-01

In the frame of the CALIOPE project (Baldasano et al., 2008a), a high-resolution air quality forecasting system, WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/DREAM, is under development and applied to the European domain (12km x 12km, 1hr) as well as to the Iberian Peninsula domain (4km x 4km, 1hr) to provide air quality forecasts for Spain (http://www.bsc.es/caliope/). The simulation of such high-resolution model system is possible by its implementation on the MareNostrum supercomputer. To reassure potential users and reduce uncertainties, the model system must be evaluated to assess its performances in terms of air quality levels and dynamics reproducibility. The present contribution describes a thorough quantitative evaluation study performed for a reference year (2004). CALIOPE is a complex system that integrates a variety of environmental models. WRF-ARW provides high-resolution meteorological fields to the system. It is configured with 38 vertical layers reaching up to 50 hPa. Meteorological initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the NCEP final analysis data. The HERMES emission model (Baldasano et al., 2008b) computes the emissions for the Iberian Peninsula simulation at 4 km horizontal resolution every hour using a bottom-up approach. For the European domain, HERMES disaggregates the EMEP expert emission inventory for 2004. The CMAQ chemical transport model solves the physico-chemical processes in the system. The vertical resolution of CMAQ for gas-phase and aerosols has been increased from 8 to 15 layers in order to simulate vertical exchanges more accurately. Chemical boundary conditions are provided by the LMDz-INCA2 global climate-chemistry model (see Hauglustaine et al., 2004). Finally, the DREAM model simulates long-range transport of mineral dust over the domains under study. In order to evaluate the performances of the CALIOPE system, model simulations were compared with ground-based measurements from the EMEP and Spanish air quality networks. For the European domain, 45 stations have been used to evaluate NO2, 60 for O3, 39 for SO2, 25 for PM10 and 16 for PM2.5. On the other hand, the Iberian Peninsula domain has been evaluated against 75 NO2 stations, 84 O3 stations, 69 for SO2, and 46 for PM10. Such large number of observations allows us to provide a detailed discussion of the model skills over quite different geographical locations and meteorological situations. The model simulation for Europe satisfactorily reproduces O3 concentrations throughout the year with small errors: monthly MNGE values range from 13% to 24%, and MNBE values show a slight negative bias ranging from -15% to 0%. These values lie within the range defined by the US-EPA guidelines (MNGE: +/- 30-35%; MNBE: +/- 10-15%). The reproduction of SO2 concentrations is relatively correct but false peaks are reported (mean MNBE=22%). The simulated variation of particulate matter is reliable, with a mean correlation of 0.5. False peaks were reduced by use of an improved 8-bin aerosol description in the DREAM dust model, but mean aerosol levels are still underestimated. This problem is most probably related to uncertainties in our knowledge of the sources and in the description of organic aerosols. The nested high-resolution simulation of Spain (4 km) shows a very good agreement with observations for O3 (monthly MNGE range from 13 to 19%). Particulate matter results are in agreement with the European simulation, and a net improvement on nitrate and sulphate is observed in several stations in Spain. Such high-resolution simulation will allow analysing the small scale features observed over Spain. REFERENCES Baldasano J.M, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, O. Jorba, C. Pérez, E. López, P. Güereca, F. Martin, M. García-Vivanco, I. Palomino, X. Querol, M. Pandolfi, M.J. Sanz and J.J. Diéguez, 2008a: CALIOPE: An operational air quality forecasting system for the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands and Canary Islands- First annual evaluation and ongoing developments. Adv. Sci. and Res., 2: 89-98. Baldasano J.M., L. P. Güereca, E. López, S. Gassó, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, 2008b: Development of a high-resolution (1 km x 1 km, 1 h) emission model for Spain: the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMES). Atm. Environ., 42 (31): 7215-7233. Hauglustaine, D. A. and F. Hourdin and L. Jourdain and M.A. Filiberti and S. Walters and J. F. Lamarque and E. A. Holland, 2004: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model: Description and background tropospheric chemistry evaluation. J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2003JD003,957.

Using Elicited Choice Probabilities in Hypothetical Elections to Study Decisions to Vote

PubMed Central

Delavande, Adeline; Manski, Charles F.

2015-01-01

This paper demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of survey research asking respondents to report voting probabilities in hypothetical election scenarios. Posing scenarios enriches the data available for studies of voting decisions, as a researcher can pose many more and varied scenarios than the elections that persons actually face. Multiple scenarios were presented to over 4,000 participants in the American Life Panel (ALP). Each described a hypothetical presidential election, giving characteristics measuring candidate preference, closeness of the election, and the time cost of voting. Persons were asked the probability that they would vote in this election and were willing and able to respond. We analyzed the data through direct study of the variation of voting probabilities with election characteristics and through estimation of a random utility model of voting. Voting time and election closeness were notable determinants of decisions to vote, but not candidate preference. Most findings were corroborated through estimation of a model fit to ALP data on respondents' actual voting behavior in the 2012 election. PMID:25705068

Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?

PubMed

Shen, Yan; Yao, Yang

2008-10-01

Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986-2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections' positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment.

A resolution recognizing the democratic accomplishments of the people of Albania and expressing the hope that the parliamentary elections on June 28, 2009, maintain and improve the transparency and fairness of democracy in Albania.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Kerry, John F. [D-MA

2009-06-10

Senate - 06/19/2009 Resolution agreed to in Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

School Finance Elections: A Comprehensive Planning Model for Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lifto, Don E.; Senden, J. Bradford

2004-01-01

"Education officials need to furnish leadership in school elections.... An unsuccessful election reduces educational opportunities for students" (Kimbrough and Nunnery, 1971, p. 4). Who can argue with this simple statement? Providing effective leadership, however, is not that easy. Research and practice have yet to yield an election formula that…

A mentorship-based preclinical elective increases exposure, confidence, and interest in surgery.

PubMed

Drolet, Brian C; Sangisetty, Suma; Mulvaney, Patrick M; Ryder, Beth A; Cioffi, William G

2014-02-01

The predicted shortage of surgeons is of growing concern with declining medical student interest in surgical careers. We hypothesized that earlier exposure to operative experiences and the establishment of resident mentors through a preclinical elective would enhance student confidence and interest in surgery. We developed a preclinical elective in surgery, which served as an organized curriculum for junior medical students to experience surgery through a paired resident-mentorship model. We assessed student exposure and confidence with clinical activities before and after the elective (N = 24, 100% response rate). We compared these students with a cohort of peers not enrolled in the elective (N = 147, 67% response rate). We found significantly improved confidence (2.8 vs 4.4) and clinical exposure (2.4 vs 4.3) before versus after the elective, with precourse scores equal to matched peers. This elective incorporates elements that have been shown to positively influence student decision making in surgical career choice. The mentorship model promotes residents as educators, whereas the elective provides a means for early identification of students interested in surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A resolution condemning the continued detention of Burmese democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and calling on the military regime in Burma to permit a credible and fair election process and the transition to civilian, democratic rule.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Gregg, Judd [R-NH

2010-04-14

Senate - 05/07/2010 Resolution agreed to in Senate with amendments and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution urging the Government of Afghanistan to ensure transparent and credible presidential and provincial elections in April 2014 by adhering to internationally accepted democratic standards, establishing a transparent electoral process, and ensuring security for voters and candidates.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Casey, Robert P., Jr. [D-PA

2013-05-21

Senate - 07/09/2013 Resolution agreed to in Senate with an amendment and an amended preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Comparison of Two Grid Refinement Approaches for High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling: MPAS vs WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.; Rauscher, S.; Ringler, T.

2012-12-01

This study compares two grid refinement approaches using global variable resolution model and nesting for high-resolution regional climate modeling. The global variable resolution model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), and the limited area model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are compared in an idealized aqua-planet context with a focus on the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical precipitation simulated by the models using the same physics package from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4). For MPAS, simulations have been performed with a quasi-uniform resolution global domain at coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution, and a variable resolution domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree configured inside a coarse resolution global domain at 1 degree resolution. Similarly, WRF has been configured to run on a coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution tropical channel domain as well as a nested domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree nested two-way inside the coarse resolution (1 degree) tropical channel. The variable resolution or nested simulations are compared against the high-resolution simulations that serve as virtual reality. Both MPAS and WRF simulate 20-day Kelvin waves propagating through the high-resolution domains fairly unaffected by the change in resolution. In addition, both models respond to increased resolution with enhanced precipitation. Grid refinement induces zonal asymmetry in precipitation (heating), accompanied by zonal anomalous Walker like circulations and standing Rossby wave signals. However, there are important differences between the anomalous patterns in MPAS and WRF due to differences in the grid refinement approaches and sensitivity of model physics to grid resolution. This study highlights the need for "scale aware" parameterizations in variable resolution and nested regional models.

Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?*

PubMed Central

Shen, Yan; Yao, Yang

2014-01-01

Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986–2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections’ positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment. PMID:26052164

Cost effectiveness of drug eluting coronary artery stenting in a UK setting: cost-utility study.

PubMed

Bagust, A; Grayson, A D; Palmer, N D; Perry, R A; Walley, T

2006-01-01

To assess the cost effectiveness of drug eluting stents (DES) compared with conventional stents for treatment of symptomatic coronary artery disease in the UK. Cost-utility analysis of audit based patient subgroups by means of a simple economic model. Tertiary care. 12 month audit data for 2884 patients receiving percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting at the Cardiothoracic Centre Liverpool between January 2000 and December 2002. Risk of repeat revascularisation within 12 months of index procedure and reduction in risk from use of DES. Economic modelling was used to estimate the cost-utility ratio and threshold price premium. Four factors were identified for patients undergoing elective surgery (n = 1951) and two for non-elective surgery (n = 933) to predict risk of repeat revascularisation within 12 months. Most patients fell within the subgroup with lowest risk (57% of the elective surgery group with 5.6% risk and 91% of the non-elective surgery group with 9.9% risk). Modelled cost-utility ratios were acceptable for only one group of high risk patients undergoing non-elective surgery (only one patient in audit data). Restricting the number of DES for each patient improved results marginally: 4% of stents could then be drug eluting on economic grounds. The threshold price premium justifying 90% substitution of conventional stents was estimated to be 112 pound sterling (212 USD, 162 pound sterling) (sirolimus stents) or 89 pound sterling (167 USD, 130 pound sterling) (paclitaxel stents). At current UK prices, DES are not cost effective compared with conventional stents except for a small minority of patients. Although the technology is clearly effective, general substitution is not justified unless the price premium falls substantially.

Are We Rational or Not? The Exploration of Voter Choices during the 2016 Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lee, I-Ching; Chen, Eva E.; Yen, Nai-Shing; Tsai, Chia-Hung; Cheng, Hsu-Po

2017-01-01

The decisions voters make—and whether those decisions are rational—have profound implications on the functionality of a democratic society. In this study, we delineated two criteria in evaluating voter rationality and weigh evidence of voter rationality versus irrationality. Furthermore, we compared models in two different elections in Taiwan to explore the reasons behind the irrational choices voters can make. Survey questions and an implicit association test (IAT) were administered prior to both elections among 197 voters in Taipei. These voters then reported their actual votes post-election. Model testing suggests that voters often are rational, but are more likely to make irrational choices in more important elections. Our findings indicate that voters generally aim to be diligent and to optimize their choices, even if they make less rational choices in the end. Further implications regarding elections and human rationality are discussed. PMID:29075215

Evaluating the CALIOPE air quality modelling system: dynamics and chemistry over Europe and Iberian Peninsula for 2004 at high horizontal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piot, M.; Pay, M. T.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; López, E.; Pérez, C.; Gassó, S.

2009-04-01

Often in Europe, population exposure to air pollution exceeds standards set by the EU and the World Health Organization (WHO). Urban/suburban areas are predominantly impacted upon, although exceedances of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and Ozone (O3) also take place in rural areas. In the frame of the CALIOPE project (Baldasano et al., 2008a), a high-resolution air quality forecasting system, WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/DREAM, has been developed and applied to the European domain (12km x 12km, 1hr) as well as to the Iberian Peninsula domain (4km x 4km, 1hr) to provide air quality forecasts for Spain (http://www.bsc.es/caliope/). The simulation of such high-resolution model system has been made possible by its implementation on the MareNostrum supercomputer. To reassure potential users and reduce uncertainties, the model system must be evaluated to assess its performances in terms of air quality levels and dynamics reproducibility. The present contribution describes a thorough quantitative evaluation study performed for a reference year (2004). The CALIOPE modelling system is configured with 38 vertical layers reaching up to 50 hPa for the meteorological core. Atmospheric initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the NCEP final analysis data. The vertical resolution of the CMAQ chemistry-transport model for gas-phase and aerosols has been increased from 8 to 15 layers in order to simulate vertical exchanges more accurately. Gas phase boundary conditions are provided by the LMDz-INCA2 global climate-chemistry model (see Hauglustaine et al., 2004). The DREAM model simulates long-range transport of mineral dust over the domains under study. For the European simulation, emissions are disaggregated from the EMEP expert emission inventory for 2004 to the utilized resolution using the criteria implemented in the HERMES emission model (Baldasano et al., 2008b). The HERMES model system, using a bottom-up approach, was adopted to estimate emissions for the Iberian Peninsula simulation at 4 km horizontal resolution, every hour. In order to evaluate the performances of the CALIOPE system, model simulations were compared with ground-based measurements from the EMEP and Spanish air quality networks. For the European domain, 45 stations have been used to evaluate NO2, 60 for O3, 39 for SO2, 25 for PM10 and 16 for PM2.5. On the other hand, the Iberian Peninsula domain has been evaluated against 75 NO2 stations, 84 O3 stations, 69 for SO2, and 46 for PM10. Such large number of observations allows us to provide a detailed discussion of the model skills over quite different geographical locations and meteorological situations. The model simulation for Europe satisfactorily reproduces O3 concentrations throughout the year with relatively small errors: MNGE values range from 13% to 24%, and MNBE values show a slight negative bias ranging from -15% to 0%. These values lie within the range defined by the US-EPA guidelines (MNGE: +/- 30-35%; MNBE: +/- 10-15%). NO2 is less accurately simulated, with a mean MNBE of -47% caused by an overall underestimation in concentrations. The reproduction of SO2 concentrations is relatively correct but false peaks are reported (mean MNBE=22%). The simulated variation of particulate matter is reliable, with a mean correlation of 0.5. False peaks were reduced by use of an improved 8-bin aerosol description in the DREAM dust model, but mean aerosol levels are still underestimated. This problem is most probably related to uncertainties in our knowledge of the sources and in the description of the sulfate chemistry. The model simulation for Europe will be used to force the nested high-resolution simulation of the Iberian Peninsula. The performances of the latter will be also presented. Such high resolution simulation will allow analysing the small scale features observed over Spain. REFERENCES Baldasano J.M, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, O. Jorba, C. Pérez, E. López, P. Güereca, F. Martin, M. García-Vivanco, I. Palomino, X. Querol, M. Pandolfi, M.J. Sanz and J.J. Diéguez, 2008a: CALIOPE: An operational air quality forecasting system for the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands and Canary Islands- First annual evaluation and ongoing developments. Adv. Sci. and Res., 2: 89-98. Baldasano J.M., L. P. Güereca, E. López, S. Gassó, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, 2008b: Development of a high-resolution (1 km x 1 km, 1 h) emission model for Spain: the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMES). Atm. Environ., 42 (31): 7215-7233. Hauglustaine, D. A. and F. Hourdin and L. Jourdain and M.A. Filiberti and S. Walters and J. F. Lamarque and E. A. Holland, 2004: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model: Description and background tropospheric chemistry evaluation. J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2003JD003,957.

Distribution of Votes and a Model of Political Opinion Formation for Majority Elections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenga, Dode; Ifti, Margarita

We study the behavior of the number of votes cast for different electoral subjects in majority elections, and in particular, the Albanian elections of the last 10 years, as well as the British, Russian, and Canadian elections. We report the frequency of obtaining a certain percentage (fraction) of votes versus this fraction for the parliamentary elections. In the distribution of votes cast in majority elections we identify two regimes. In the low percentiles we see a power law distribution, with exponent about -1.7. In the power law regime we find over 80% of the data points, while they relate to 20% of the votes cast. Votes of the small electoral subjects are found in this regime. The other regime includes percentiles above 20%, and has Gaussian distribution. It corresponds to large electoral subjects. A similar pattern is observed in other first past the post (FPP) elections, such as British and Canadian, but here the Gaussian is reduced to an exponential. Finally we show that this distribution can not be reproduced by a modified "word of mouth" model of opinion formation. This behavior can be reproduced by a model that comprises different number of zealots, as well as different campaign strengths for different electoral subjects, in presence of preferential attachment of voters to candidates.

Architecture for the Whole Child: Celebrating Change!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Bartlett J.

1997-01-01

Argues well-designed middle schools support the physical, social, cognitive, and emotional changes students experience. Promotes a design that is a hybrid of the home-based, child-centered elementary model and the elective-based, campus high school model. Focuses on enabling cross-curriculum, interdisciplinary team instruction in smaller,…

A joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States relative to the election of Senators.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Feingold, Russell D. [D-WI

2009-01-29

Senate - 08/06/2009 Committee on the Judiciary. Ordered to be reported without amendment favorably. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A Double-Blinded Randomized Clinical Study on the Therapeutic Effect of Gastrografin in Prolonged Postoperative Ileus After Elective Colorectal Surgery.

PubMed

Biondo, Sebastiano; Miquel, Jordi; Espin-Basany, Eloy; Sanchez, Jose Luis; Golda, Thomas; Ferrer-Artola, Ana Maria; Codina-Cazador, Antonio; Frago, Ricardo; Kreisler, Esther

2016-01-01

Postoperative ileus is a common problem with significant clinical and economic consequences. We hypothesized that Gastrografin may have therapeutic utility by accelerating the recovery of postoperative ileus after colorectal surgery. The aim of this trial was to study the impact of oral Gastrografin administration on postoperative prolonged ileus (PPI) after elective colorectal surgery. The main endpoint of this randomized, double-blinded, controlled trial was time of resolution of PPI. The secondary endpoints were overall hospital length of stay, time to start oral intake, time to first passage of flatus or stools, time of need of nasogastric tube, and need of parenteral nutrition. Included criteria were patients older than 18 years, operated for colonic neoplasia, inflammatory bowel disease, or diverticular disease. There were two treatments: Gastrografin administration and placebo. The sample size was calculated taking into account the average length of postoperative ileus after colorectal resection until tolerance to oral intake. Statistical analysis showed that 29 subjects in each group were needed. Twenty-nine patients per group were randomized. Groups were comparable for age, gender, ASA Physical Status Classification System, stoma construction, and surgical technique. No statistical differences were observed in mean time to resolution between the two groups, 9.1 days (CI 95%, 6.51-11.68) in Gastrografin group versus 10.3 days (CI 6.96-10.29) in Placebo group (P = 0.878). Even if not statistically significant, time of resolution of PPI, overall length of stay, time of need of nasogastric tube, and time to tolerance of oral intake were shorter in the G group. Gastrografin does not accelerate significantly the recovery of prolonged postoperative ileus after elective colorectal resection when compared with placebo. However, it seems to clinically improve all the analyzed variables.

Humanities Curriculum Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stafford, Mary Ann

Designed as a model for a high school humanities program, this publication outlines a two-course, two-year elective in humanities for high school juniors and seniors. Introductory material includes an overview of the program and its history, credits, goals of the program, and an introduction to humanities. The major portion of the guide contains…

Modeling and forecasting US presidential election using learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolghadr, Mohammad; Niaki, Seyed Armin Akhavan; Niaki, S. T. A.

2017-09-01

The primary objective of this research is to obtain an accurate forecasting model for the US presidential election. To identify a reliable model, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) models are compared based on some specified performance measures. Moreover, six independent variables such as GDP, unemployment rate, the president's approval rate, and others are considered in a stepwise regression to identify significant variables. The president's approval rate is identified as the most significant variable, based on which eight other variables are identified and considered in the model development. Preprocessing methods are applied to prepare the data for the learning algorithms. The proposed procedure significantly increases the accuracy of the model by 50%. The learning algorithms (ANN and SVR) proved to be superior to linear regression based on each method's calculated performance measures. The SVR model is identified as the most accurate model among the other models as this model successfully predicted the outcome of the election in the last three elections (2004, 2008, and 2012). The proposed approach significantly increases the accuracy of the forecast.

A resolution congratulating the people of Kenya on their commitment to peaceful elections, as demonstrated on March 4, 2013, and calling on Kenyans to come together to continue to implement political, institutional, and accountability reforms envisioned in the Kenyan constitution.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Coons, Christopher A. [D-DE

2013-03-22

Senate - 04/22/2013 Resolution agreed to in Senate with an amendment and an amendment to the Title and an amended preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution to authorize the printing of a revised edition of the Senate Election Law Guidebook.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Schumer, Charles E. [D-NY

2010-12-18

Senate - 12/18/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution notifying the House of Representatives of the election of a President pro tempore.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2010-06-28

Senate - 06/28/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution electing Andrew B. Willison as the Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the Senate.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2014-05-05

Senate - 05/05/2014 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution electing Laura C. Dove, of Virginia, as Secretary for the Minority of the Senate.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. McConnell, Mitch [R-KY

2013-08-01

Senate - 08/01/2013 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Victory for volunteerism? Scottish health board elections and participation in the welfare state.

PubMed

Greer, Scott L; Stewart, Ellen A; Wilson, Iain; Donnelly, Peter D

2014-04-01

This paper presents findings from a multimethod study of pilot elections held to choose members of health boards in the National Health Service in Scotland. We begin by proposing that much current public involvement practice is dominated by a volunteerist model, in which members of the public with time and skills to offer play essentially supportive and non-challenging roles within health care organizations. This model contrasts sharply with the adversarial, political model of electoral democracy. Nonetheless, drawing on a postal survey of voters, non-participant observation of Boards, and semi-structured interviews with candidates, elected Board members and other stakeholders, we demonstrate that the introduction of elections did not overcome the volunteerist slant of current public involvement with health care organizations. Far from offering a 'quick fix' for policymakers seeking to ensure accountability of health care organizations, elections may produce remarkably similar outcomes to existing mechanisms of public involvement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal database of US congressional elections, 1896–2014

PubMed Central

Wolf, Levi John

2017-01-01

High-quality historical data about US Congressional elections has long provided common ground for electoral studies. However, advances in geographic information science have recently made it efficient to compile, distribute, and analyze large spatio-temporal data sets on the structure of US Congressional districts. A single spatio-temporal data set that relates US Congressional election results to the spatial extent of the constituencies has not yet been developed. To address this, existing high-quality data sets of elections returns were combined with a spatiotemporal data set on Congressional district boundaries to generate a new spatio-temporal database of US Congressional election results that are explicitly linked to the geospatial data about the districts themselves. PMID:28809849

Citizenship Education in Michigan Schools: A Mock Election and Political Awareness Resource Guide. Secondary Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michigan State Board of Education, Lansing.

An eight-chapter resource guide helps high school students become actively involved in the presidential election process. Chapter 1 contains directions for student participation in the 1984 Michigan statewide mock election; these directions are easily adaptable to other state and local mock election projects. Included are sample voter application…

A resolution notifying the President of the United States of the election of a President pro tempore.

THOMAS, 112th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2012-12-18

Senate - 12/18/2012 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution notifying the President of the United States of the election of a President pro tempore.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2010-06-28

Senate - 06/28/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Short-term forecasting of emergency inpatient flow.

PubMed

Abraham, Gad; Byrnes, Graham B; Bain, Christopher A

2009-05-01

Hospital managers have to manage resources effectively, while maintaining a high quality of care. For hospitals where admissions from the emergency department to the wards represent a large proportion of admissions, the ability to forecast these admissions and the resultant ward occupancy is especially useful for resource planning purposes. Since emergency admissions often compete with planned elective admissions, modeling emergency demand may result in improved elective planning as well. We compare several models for forecasting daily emergency inpatient admissions and occupancy. The models are applied to three years of daily data. By measuring their mean square error in a cross-validation framework, we find that emergency admissions are largely random, and hence, unpredictable, whereas emergency occupancy can be forecasted using a model combining regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, or a seasonal ARIMA model, for up to one week ahead. Faced with variable admissions and occupancy, hospitals must prepare a reserve capacity of beds and staff. Our approach allows estimation of the required reserve capacity.

A resolution congratulating the Southern Baptist Convention for electing Reverend Fred Luter, Jr., as the president of the Southern Baptist Convention, acknowledging Reverend Luter's unique role as the first African-American leader of the Southern Baptist Convention, and honoring the commitment of the Southern Baptist Convention to an inclusive faith-based community and society.

THOMAS, 112th Congress

Sen. Landrieu, Mary L. [D-LA

2012-06-29

Senate - 11/30/2012 Resolution agreed to in Senate without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.

2018-05-01

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

Radiation damage in a micron-sized protein crystal studied via reciprocal space mapping and Bragg coherent diffractive imaging.

PubMed

Coughlan, H D; Darmanin, C; Phillips, N W; Hofmann, F; Clark, J N; Harder, R J; Vine, D J; Abbey, B

2015-07-01

For laboratory and synchrotron based X-ray sources, radiation damage has posed a significant barrier to obtaining high-resolution structural data from biological macromolecules. The problem is particularly acute for micron-sized crystals where the weaker signal often necessitates the use of higher intensity beams to obtain the relevant data. Here, we employ a combination of techniques, including Bragg coherent diffractive imaging to characterise the radiation induced damage in a micron-sized protein crystal over time. The approach we adopt here could help screen for potential protein crystal candidates for measurement at X-ray free election laser sources.

Radiation damage in a micron-sized protein crystal studied via reciprocal space mapping and Bragg coherent diffractive imaging

PubMed Central

Coughlan, H. D.; Darmanin, C.; Phillips, N. W.; Hofmann, F.; Clark, J. N.; Harder, R. J.; Vine, D. J.; Abbey, B.

2015-01-01

For laboratory and synchrotron based X-ray sources, radiation damage has posed a significant barrier to obtaining high-resolution structural data from biological macromolecules. The problem is particularly acute for micron-sized crystals where the weaker signal often necessitates the use of higher intensity beams to obtain the relevant data. Here, we employ a combination of techniques, including Bragg coherent diffractive imaging to characterise the radiation induced damage in a micron-sized protein crystal over time. The approach we adopt here could help screen for potential protein crystal candidates for measurement at X-ray free election laser sources. PMID:26798804

Radiation damage in a micron-sized protein crystal studied via reciprocal space mapping and Bragg coherent diffractive imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coughlan, H. D.; Darmanin, C.; Phillips, N. W.

For laboratory and synchrotron based X-ray sources, radiation damage has posed a significant barrier to obtaining high-resolution structural data from biological macromolecules. The problem is particularly acute for micron-sized crystals where the weaker signal often necessitates the use of higher intensity beams to obtain the relevant data. Here, we employ a combination of techniques, including Bragg coherent diffractive imaging to characterise the radiation induced damage in a micron-sized protein crystal over time. The approach we adopt here could help screen for potential protein crystal candidates for measurement at X-ray free election laser sources.

Radiation damage in a micron-sized protein crystal studied via reciprocal space mapping and Bragg coherent diffractive imaging

DOE PAGES

Coughlan, H. D.; Darmanin, C.; Phillips, N. W.; ...

2015-04-29

For laboratory and synchrotron based X-ray sources, radiation damage has posed a significant barrier to obtaining high-resolution structural data from biological macromolecules. The problem is particularly acute for micron-sized crystals where the weaker signal often necessitates the use of higher intensity beams to obtain the relevant data. Here, we employ a combination of techniques, including Bragg coherent diffractive imaging to characterise the radiation induced damage in a micron-sized protein crystal over time. The approach we adopt here could help screen for potential protein crystal candidates for measurement at X-ray free election laser sources.

A resolution notifying the President of the United States of the election of a Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the Senate.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2014-05-05

Senate - 05/05/2014 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution notifying the House of Representatives of the election of a Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the Senate.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2014-05-05

Senate - 05/05/2014 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

The Relationship of Science Self-Efficacy and Gender to Ninth Grade Students' Intentions To Enroll in Elective Science Courses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tippins, Deborah J.

The selection of elective science courses during high school is believed to act as a filter to future participation in science. This study investigated the research hypothesis that science self-efficacy and gender may be related to ninth grade student intentions to take elective science courses during high school. In this study, the Test of…

Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur

2018-01-01

The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.

Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

2016-06-01

The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climate model in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climate model simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and second one used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoon years respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year 2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization. These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surface initialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulation show that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. These results show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional models for monsoon forecasting.

Postoperative Mortality Among Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Studies.

PubMed

Singh, Sunny; Al-Darmaki, Ahmed; Frolkis, Alexandra D; Seow, Cynthia H; Leung, Yvette; Novak, Kerri L; Ghosh, Subrata; Eksteen, Bertus; Panaccione, Remo; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-10-01

There have been varying reports of mortality after intestinal resection for the inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies to determine postoperative mortality after intestinal resection in patients with IBD. We searched Medline, EMBASE, and PubMed, from 1990 through 2015, to identify 18 articles and 3 abstracts reporting postoperative mortality among patients with IBD. The studies included 67,057 patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 75,971 patients with Crohn's disease (CD), from 15 countries. Mortality estimates stratified by emergent and elective surgeries were pooled separately for CD and UC using a random-effects model. To assess changes over time, the start year of the study was included as a continuous variable in a meta-regression model. In patients with UC, postoperative mortality was significantly lower among patients who underwent elective (0.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6%-0.9%) vs emergent surgery (5.3%; 95% CI, 3.8%-7.4%). In patients with CD, postoperative mortality was significantly lower among patients who underwent elective (0.6%; 95% CI, 0.2%-1.7%) vs emergent surgery (3.6%; 95% CI, 1.8%-6.9%). Postoperative mortality did not differ for elective (P = .78) or emergent (P = .31) surgeries when patients with UC were compared with patients with CD. Postoperative mortality decreased significantly over time for patients with CD (P < .05) but not UC (P = .21). Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis, postoperative mortality was high after emergent, but not elective, intestinal resection in patients with UC or CD. Optimization of management strategies and more effective therapies are necessary to avoid emergent surgeries. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Social Diffusion Model with an Application on Election Simulation

PubMed Central

Wang, Fu-Min; Hung, San-Chuan; Kung, Perng-Hwa; Lin, Shou-De

2014-01-01

Issues about opinion diffusion have been studied for decades. It has so far no empirical approach to model the interflow and formation of crowd's opinion in elections due to two reasons. First, unlike the spread of information or flu, individuals have their intrinsic attitudes to election candidates in advance. Second, opinions are generally simply assumed as single values in most diffusion models. However, in this case, an opinion should represent preference toward multiple candidates. Previously done models thus may not intuitively interpret such scenario. This work is to design a diffusion model which is capable of managing the aforementioned scenario. To demonstrate the usefulness of our model, we simulate the diffusion on the network built based on a publicly available bibliography dataset. We compare the proposed model with other well-known models such as independent cascade. It turns out that our model consistently outperforms other models. We additionally investigate electoral issues with our model simulator. PMID:24995351

The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Li, Fuyu; ...

2014-10-13

We present an analysis of version 5.1 of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) at a high horizontal resolution. Intercomparison of this global model at approximately 0.25°, 1°, and 2° is presented for extreme daily precipitation as well as for a suite of seasonal mean fields. In general, extreme precipitation amounts are larger in high resolution than in lower-resolution configurations. In many but not all locations and/or seasons, extreme daily precipitation rates in the high-resolution configuration are higher and more realistic. The high-resolution configuration produces tropical cyclones up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale and a comparison to observations revealsmore » both realistic and unrealistic model behavior. In the absence of extensive model tuning at high resolution, simulation of many of the mean fields analyzed in this study is degraded compared to the tuned lower-resolution public released version of the model.« less

Young adults' psychological and physiological reactions to the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

PubMed

Hoyt, Lindsay T; Zeiders, Katharine H; Chaku, Natasha; Toomey, Russell B; Nair, Rajni L

2018-06-01

Elections present unique opportunities to study how sociopolitical events influence individual processes. The current study examined 286 young adults' mood and diurnal cortisol responses to the 2016 U.S. presidential election in real-time: two days before the election, election night, and two days after the election of Donald Trump, with the goal of understanding whether (and the extent to which) the election influenced young adults' affective and biological states. Utilizing piecewise trajectory analyses, we observed high, and increasing, negative affect leading up to the election across all participants. Young adults who had negative perceptions of Trump's ability to fulfill the role of president and/or were part of a non-dominant social group (i.e., women, ethnic/racial minority young adults) reported increased signs of stress before the election and on election night. After the election, we observed a general "recovery" in self-reported mood; however, diurnal cortisol indicators suggested that there was an increase in biological stress among some groups. Overall, findings underscore the role of macro-level factors in individuals' health and well-being via more proximal attitudes and physiological functioning. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

14 CFR 17.33 - Election of alternative dispute resolution process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Acquisition will make its personnel available to serve as Neutrals in ADR proceedings and, upon request by the...) The parties using an ADR process to resolve a protest shall submit an executed ADR agreement... this time for good cause. (c) The parties using an ADR process to resolve a contract dispute shall...

14 CFR 17.33 - Election of alternative dispute resolution process.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Acquisition will make its personnel available to serve as Neutrals in ADR proceedings and, upon request by the...) The parties using an ADR process to resolve a protest shall submit an executed ADR agreement... this time for good cause. (c) The parties using an ADR process to resolve a contract dispute shall...

A comparison of three feature selection methods for object-based classification of sub-decimeter resolution UltraCam-L imagery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The availability of numerous spectral, spatial, and contextual features with object-based image analysis (OBIA) renders the selection of optimal features a time consuming and subjective process. While several feature election methods have been used in conjunction with OBIA, a robust comparison of th...

A resolution to authorize the printing of a revised edition of the Nomination and Election of the President and Vice President of the United States.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Schumer, Charles E. [D-NY

2010-07-21

Senate - 07/21/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Sub-Saharan Africa report, [January 29, 1987

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1987-01-29

Partial Contents: Subsaharan Africa, resolution, settlement, leaderships, election fraud, political, propaganda war, guerrilla war, commonwealth president, warns officers, national youth corps, diversity, unemployment, fuel consumption, journalists, cultural agreement, steel plants, foreign investment, energy, fuel shortage, fertilizer, export, telecommunication, defense workers, farming, private school, educational, scholarships, case study, government, economics, political philosophy, sociopolitical, industrial.

A resolution to elect Daniel K. Inouye, a Senator from the State of Hawaii, to be President pro tempore of the Senate of the United States.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Reid, Harry [D-NV

2010-06-28

Senate - 06/28/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Convention Proceedings Digest: American Vocational Association (Atlanta, Georgia, November 30-December 5, 1973).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Vocational Association, Inc., Washington, DC.

The document is the fifth volume in an annual series of American Vocational Association (AVA) proceedings digests. It contains the reports of professional meetings, workshops, educational tours, speeches, and discussions, as well as the resolutions, elections, and other activities undertaken at the various meetings. The proceedings of meetings of…

Electing officers of the House of Representatives.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Rep. McMorris Rodgers, Cathy [R-WA-5

2013-01-03

House - 01/03/2013 Subsequent to the adoption of the resolution, the Chair announced that, without objection, H. Res. 1 is amended by striking "Florida" in the second place it appears and inserting "Oregon". (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in HouseHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

An Untimely Death: An Elegy for the Elective Curriculum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christenbury, Leila

1994-01-01

Details the curricular reforms of the post-Sputnik era in American high schools, especially the national stampede to an elective curriculum in English instruction. Covers criticism of the movement and the profession's struggle to define English studies. Provides pros and cons of an elective curriculum. (HB)

Effects of '"Environmental Chemistry" Elective Course via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry Model on Some Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çalik, Muammer; Özsevgeç, Tuncay; Ebenezer, Jazlin; Artun, Hüseyin; Küçük, Zeynel

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of "environmental chemistry" elective course via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry (TESI) model on senior science student teachers' (SSSTs) conceptions of environmental chemistry concepts/issues, attitudes toward chemistry, and technological pedagogical content knowledge…

`Discover, Understand, Implement, and Transfer': Effectiveness of an intervention programme to motivate students for science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schütte, Kerstin; Köller, Olaf

2015-09-01

Considerable research has focused on how best to satisfy modern societies' needs for skilled labour in the field of science. The present study evaluated an intervention programme designed to increase secondary school students' motivation to pursue a science career. Students from 3 schools of the highest educational track participated for up to 2 years in the intervention programme, which was implemented as an elective in the school curriculum. Our longitudinal study design for evaluating the effectiveness of the intervention programme included all students at the grade levels involved in the programme with students who did not participate serving as a control group. Mixed-model analyses of variance showed none of the intended effects of the intervention programme on science motivation; latent growth models corroborated these results. When the programme began, students who enrolled in the science elective (n = 92) were already substantially more motivated than their classmates (n = 228). Offering such an intervention programme as an elective did not further increase the participating students' science motivation. It seems worthwhile to carry out intervention programmes with talented students who show (comparatively) little interest in science at the outset rather than with highly motivated students who self-select into the programme.

On the likelihood of single-peaked preferences.

PubMed

Lackner, Marie-Louise; Lackner, Martin

2017-01-01

This paper contains an extensive combinatorial analysis of the single-peaked domain restriction and investigates the likelihood that an election is single-peaked. We provide a very general upper bound result for domain restrictions that can be defined by certain forbidden configurations. This upper bound implies that many domain restrictions (including the single-peaked restriction) are very unlikely to appear in a random election chosen according to the Impartial Culture assumption. For single-peaked elections, this upper bound can be refined and complemented by a lower bound that is asymptotically tight. In addition, we provide exact results for elections with few voters or candidates. Moreover, we consider the Pólya urn model and the Mallows model and obtain lower bounds showing that single-peakedness is considerably more likely to appear for certain parameterizations.

Election Information/Issues Analysis Center.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for Political/Legal Education, Sewell, NJ.

Procedures for establishing a student-run election information and issue analysis center at the high school level are presented. The purpose of the election information center is to provide the student population with an awareness of candidate's views and to coordinate volunteer activities of students in a campaign. Student personnel include a…

47 CFR 76.66 - Satellite broadcast signal carriage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... free over-the-air signal, including multicast and high definition digital signals. (c) Election cycle... first retransmission consent-mandatory carriage election cycle shall be for a four-year period... carriage election cycle, and all cycles thereafter, shall be for a period of three years (e.g. the second...

Microbiology as a High-School Elective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Priscilla

1973-01-01

Describes a course in microbiology offered as a high school science elective. The laboratory-oriented course has proved to be very popular and provides students with the basic techniques for handling equipment and working safely with bacteria. (JR)

Persuading Girls to Take Elective Physical Science Courses in High School: Who Are the Credible Communicators?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koballa, Thomas R., Jr.

1988-01-01

Identifies communicators whom eighth-grade girls perceive as credible regarding reasons for taking elective physical science courses in high school. Finds that father, woman science teacher, mother, and boy high school student are ranked highly. Attributes associated with the communicators were classified as prestige, trustworthiness, similarity,…

Do heads of government age more quickly? Observational study comparing mortality between elected leaders and runners-up in national elections of 17 countries

PubMed Central

Olenski, Andrew R; Abola, Matthew V

2015-01-01

Objectives To determine whether being elected to head of government is associated with accelerated mortality by studying survival differences between people elected to office and unelected runner-up candidates who never served. Design Observational study. Setting Historical survival data on elected and runner-up candidates in parliamentary or presidential elections in Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States, from 1722 to 2015. Participants Elected and runner-up political candidates. Main outcome measure Observed number of years alive after each candidate’s last election, relative to what would be expected for an average person of the same age and sex as the candidate during the year of the election, based on historical French and British life tables. Observed post-election life years were compared between elected candidates and runners-up, adjusting for life expectancy at time of election. A Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted for candidate’s life expectancy at the time of election) considered years until death (or years until end of study period for those not yet deceased by 9 September 2015) for elected candidates versus runners-up. Results The sample included 540 candidates: 279 winners and 261 runners-up who never served. A total of 380 candidates were deceased by 9 September 2015. Candidates who served as a head of government lived 4.4 (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 6.6) fewer years after their last election than did candidates who never served (17.8 v 13.4 years after last election; adjusted difference 2.7 (0.6 to 4.8) years). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, which considered all candidates (alive or deceased), the mortality hazard for elected candidates relative to runners-up was 1.23 (1.00 to 1.52). Conclusions Election to head of government is associated with a substantial increase in mortality risk compared with candidates in national elections who never served. PMID:26666894

Do heads of government age more quickly? Observational study comparing mortality between elected leaders and runners-up in national elections of 17 countries.

PubMed

Olenski, Andrew R; Abola, Matthew V; Jena, Anupam B

2015-12-14

To determine whether being elected to head of government is associated with accelerated mortality by studying survival differences between people elected to office and unelected runner-up candidates who never served. Observational study. Historical survival data on elected and runner-up candidates in parliamentary or presidential elections in Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States, from 1722 to 2015. Elected and runner-up political candidates. Observed number of years alive after each candidate's last election, relative to what would be expected for an average person of the same age and sex as the candidate during the year of the election, based on historical French and British life tables. Observed post-election life years were compared between elected candidates and runners-up, adjusting for life expectancy at time of election. A Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted for candidate's life expectancy at the time of election) considered years until death (or years until end of study period for those not yet deceased by 9 September 2015) for elected candidates versus runners-up. The sample included 540 candidates: 279 winners and 261 runners-up who never served. A total of 380 candidates were deceased by 9 September 2015. Candidates who served as a head of government lived 4.4 (95% confidence interval 2.1 to 6.6) fewer years after their last election than did candidates who never served (17.8 v 13.4 years after last election; adjusted difference 2.7 (0.6 to 4.8) years). In Cox proportional hazards analysis, which considered all candidates (alive or deceased), the mortality hazard for elected candidates relative to runners-up was 1.23 (1.00 to 1.52). Election to head of government is associated with a substantial increase in mortality risk compared with candidates in national elections who never served. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Calculating when elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair improves survival for individual patients: development of the Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Grant, Stuart W; Sperrin, Matthew; Carlson, Eric; Chinai, Natasha; Ntais, Dionysios; Hamilton, Matthew; Dunn, Graham; Buchan, Iain; Davies, Linda; McCollum, Charles N

2015-04-01

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair aims to prevent premature death from AAA rupture. Elective repair is currently recommended when AAA diameter reaches 5.5 cm (men) and 5.0 cm (women). Applying population-based indications may not be appropriate for individual patient decisions, as the optimal indication is likely to differ between patients based on age and comorbidities. To develop an Aneurysm Repair Decision Aid (ARDA) to indicate when elective AAA repair optimises survival for individual patients and to assess the cost-effectiveness and associated uncertainty of elective repair at the aneurysm diameter recommended by the ARDA compared with current practice. The UK Vascular Governance North West and National Vascular Database provided individual patient data to develop predictive models for perioperative mortality and survival. Data from published literature were used to model AAA growth and risk of rupture. The cost-effectiveness analysis used data from published literature and from local and national databases. A combination of systematic review methods and clinical registries were used to provide data to populate models and inform the structure of the ARDA. Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the patient journey from diagnosis to death and synthesised data were used to estimate patient outcomes and costs for elective repair at alternative aneurysm diameters. Eight patient clinical scenarios (vignettes) were used as exemplars. The DES structure was validated by clinical and statistical experts. The economic evaluation estimated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the NHS, social care provider and patient perspective over a lifetime horizon. Cost-effectiveness acceptability analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty in the data and the value for money of ARDA-based decisions. The ARDA outcome measures include perioperative mortality risk, annual risk of rupture, 1-, 5- and 10-year survival, postoperative long-term survival, median life expectancy and predicted time to current threshold for aneurysm repair. The primary economic measure was the ICER using the QALY as the measure of health benefit. The analysis demonstrated it is feasible to build and run a complex clinical decision aid using DES. The model results support current guidelines for most vignettes but suggest that earlier repair may be effective in younger, fitter patients and ongoing surveillance may be effective in elderly patients with comorbidities. The model adds information to support decisions for patients with aneurysms outside current indications. The economic evaluation suggests that using the ARDA compared with current guidelines could be cost-effective but there is a high level of uncertainty. Lack of high-quality long-term data to populate all sections of the model meant that there is high uncertainty about the long-term clinical and economic consequences of repair. Modelling assumptions were necessary and the developed survival models require external validation. The ARDA provides detailed information on the potential consequences of AAA repair or a decision not to repair that may be helpful to vascular surgeons and their patients in reaching informed decisions. Further research is required to reduce uncertainty about key data, including reintervention following AAA repair, and assess the acceptability and feasibility of the ARDA for use in routine clinical practice. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The influence of model grid resolution on estimation of national scale nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, A. J.; Kryza, M.; Hall, J. R.; Hallsworth, S.; Keller, V. J. D.; Vieno, M.; Sutton, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) has been applied to model the spatial distribution of nitrogen deposition and air concentration over the UK at a 1 km spatial resolution. The modelled deposition and concentration data were gridded at resolutions of 1 km, 5 km and 50 km to test the sensitivity of calculations of the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen deposition to the deposition data resolution. The modelled concentrations of NO2 were validated by comparison with measurements from the rural sites in the national monitoring network and were found to achieve better agreement with the high resolution 1 km data. High resolution plots were found to represent a more physically realistic distribution of nitrogen air concentrations and deposition resulting from use of 1 km resolution precipitation and emissions data as compared to 5 km resolution data. Summary statistics for national scale exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen deposition were not highly sensitive to the grid resolution of the deposition data but did show greater area exceedance with coarser grid resolution due to spatial averaging of high nitrogen deposition hot spots. Local scale deposition at individual Sites of Special Scientific Interest and high precipitation upland sites was sensitive to choice of grid resolution of deposition data. Use of high resolution data tended to generate lower deposition values in sink areas for nitrogen dry deposition (Sites of Scientific Interest) and higher values in high precipitation upland areas. In areas with generally low exceedance (Scotland) and for certain vegetation types (montane), the exceedance statistics were more sensitive to model data resolution.

The influence of model grid resolution on estimation of national scale nitrogen deposition and exceedance of critical loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dore, A. J.; Kryza, M.; Hall, J. R.; Hallsworth, S.; Keller, V. J. D.; Vieno, M.; Sutton, M. A.

2012-05-01

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange model (FRAME) was applied to model the spatial distribution of reactive nitrogen deposition and air concentration over the United Kingdom at a 1 km spatial resolution. The modelled deposition and concentration data were gridded at resolutions of 1 km, 5 km and 50 km to test the sensitivity of calculations of the exceedance of critical loads for nitrogen deposition to the deposition data resolution. The modelled concentrations of NO2 were validated by comparison with measurements from the rural sites in the national monitoring network and were found to achieve better agreement with the high resolution 1 km data. High resolution plots were found to represent a more physically realistic distribution of reactive nitrogen air concentrations and deposition resulting from use of 1 km resolution precipitation and emissions data as compared to 5 km resolution data. Summary statistics for national scale exceedance of the critical load for nitrogen deposition were not highly sensitive to the grid resolution of the deposition data but did show greater area exceedance with coarser grid resolution due to spatial averaging of high nitrogen deposition hot spots. Local scale deposition at individual Sites of Special Scientific Interest and high precipitation upland sites was sensitive to choice of grid resolution of deposition data. Use of high resolution data tended to generate lower deposition values in sink areas for nitrogen dry deposition (Sites of Scientific Interest) and higher values in high precipitation upland areas. In areas with generally low exceedance (Scotland) and for certain vegetation types (montane), the exceedance statistics were more sensitive to model data resolution.

SPARTAN II: An Instructional High Resolution Land Combat Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-03-01

93M-09 SPARTAN II: AN INSTRUCTIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION LAND COMBAT MODEL THESIS DWquALfl’ 4 Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the...ADVISOR NAJ Edward Negrelli/ENS REALDER MAJ Bruce Marl an/MA LD1 { The goal of this thesis was to improve SPARTAN, a high resolution land combat model...should serve as a useful tool for learning about the advantages and disadvantages of high resolution combat modeling. I wish to thank I4AJ Edward

How to interpret a small increase in AUC with an additional risk prediction marker: decision analysis comes through.

PubMed

Baker, Stuart G; Schuit, Ewoud; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Pencina, Michael J; Vickers, Andrew; Vickers, Andew; Moons, Karel G M; Mol, Ben W J; Lindeman, Karen S

2014-09-28

An important question in the evaluation of an additional risk prediction marker is how to interpret a small increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Many researchers believe that a change in AUC is a poor metric because it increases only slightly with the addition of a marker with a large odds ratio. Because it is not possible on purely statistical grounds to choose between the odds ratio and AUC, we invoke decision analysis, which incorporates costs and benefits. For example, a timely estimate of the risk of later non-elective operative delivery can help a woman in labor decide if she wants an early elective cesarean section to avoid greater complications from possible later non-elective operative delivery. A basic risk prediction model for later non-elective operative delivery involves only antepartum markers. Because adding intrapartum markers to this risk prediction model increases AUC by 0.02, we questioned whether this small improvement is worthwhile. A key decision-analytic quantity is the risk threshold, here the risk of later non-elective operative delivery at which a patient would be indifferent between an early elective cesarean section and usual care. For a range of risk thresholds, we found that an increase in the net benefit of risk prediction requires collecting intrapartum marker data on 68 to 124 women for every correct prediction of later non-elective operative delivery. Because data collection is non-invasive, this test tradeoff of 68 to 124 is clinically acceptable, indicating the value of adding intrapartum markers to the risk prediction model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of `Environmental Chemistry' Elective Course Via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry Model on Some Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çalik, Muammer; Özsevgeç, Tuncay; Ebenezer, Jazlin; Artun, Hüseyin; Küçük, Zeynel

2014-06-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of `environmental chemistry' elective course via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry (TESI) model on senior science student teachers' (SSSTs) conceptions of environmental chemistry concepts/issues, attitudes toward chemistry, and technological pedagogical content knowledge (TPACK) levels. Within one group pre-test-post-test design, the study was conducted with 117 SSSTs (68 females and 49 males—aged 21-23 years) enrolled in an `environmental chemistry' elective course in the spring semester of 2011-2012 academic-years. Instruments for data collection comprised of Environmental Chemistry Conceptual Understanding Questionnaire, TPACK survey, and Chemistry Attitudes and Experiences Questionnaire. Significant increases in the SSSTs' conceptions of environmental chemistry concepts/issues, attitudes toward chemistry, and TPACK levels are attributed to the SSSTs learning how to use the innovative technologies in the contexts of the `environmental chemistry' elective course and teaching practicum. The study implies that the TESI model may serve a useful purpose in experimental science courses that use the innovative technologies. However, to generalize feasibility of the TESI model, it should be evaluated with SSSTs in diverse learning contexts.

Teaching Politics in Secondary Education: Analyzing Instructional Methods from the 2008 Presidential Election

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journell, Wayne

2011-01-01

This article describes the instructional methods of four high school government teachers during their coverage of the 2008 presidential election. By analyzing the ways in which these teachers attempted to generate interest in the election and further their students' conceptualization of politics, the author seeks to better understand political…

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Elective Neck Dissection in Patients With Clinically Node-Negative Oral Cavity Cancer.

PubMed

Acevedo, Joseph R; Fero, Katherine E; Wilson, Bayard; Sacco, Assuntina G; Mell, Loren K; Coffey, Charles S; Murphy, James D

2016-11-10

Purpose Recently, a large randomized trial found a survival advantage among patients who received elective neck dissection in conjunction with primary surgery for clinically node-negative oral cavity cancer compared with those receiving primary surgery alone. However, elective neck dissection comes with greater upfront cost and patient morbidity. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis of elective neck dissection for the initial surgical management of early-stage oral cavity cancer. Methods We constructed a Markov model to simulate primary, adjuvant, and salvage therapy; disease recurrence; and survival in patients with T1/T2 clinically node-negative oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma. Transition probabilities were derived from clinical trial data; costs (in 2015 US dollars) and health utilities were estimated from the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, expressed as dollar per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), were calculated with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $100,000/QALY considered cost effective. We conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to examine model uncertainty. Results Our base-case model found that over a lifetime the addition of elective neck dissection to primary surgery reduced overall costs by $6,000 and improved effectiveness by 0.42 QALYs compared with primary surgery alone. The decrease in overall cost despite the added neck dissection was a result of less use of salvage therapy. On one-way sensitivity analysis, the model was most sensitive to assumptions about disease recurrence, survival, and the health utility reduction from a neck dissection. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that treatment with elective neck dissection was cost effective 76% of the time at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY. Conclusion Our study found that the addition of elective neck dissection reduces costs and improves health outcomes, making this a cost-effective treatment strategy for patients with early-stage oral cavity cancer.

Outlier identification in colorectal surgery should separate elective and nonelective service components.

PubMed

Byrne, Ben E; Mamidanna, Ravikrishna; Vincent, Charles A; Faiz, Omar D

2014-09-01

The identification of health care institutions with outlying outcomes is of great importance for reporting health care results and for quality improvement. Historically, elective surgical outcomes have received greater attention than nonelective results, although some studies have examined both. Differences in outlier identification between these patient groups have not been adequately explored. The aim of this study was to compare the identification of institutional outliers for mortality after elective and nonelective colorectal resection in England. This was a cohort study using routine administrative data. Ninety-day mortality was determined by using statutory records of death. Adjusted Trust-level mortality rates were calculated by using multiple logistic regression. High and low mortality outliers were identified and compared across funnel plots for elective and nonelective surgery. All English National Health Service Trusts providing colorectal surgery to an unrestricted patient population were studied. Adults admitted for colorectal surgery between April 2006 and March 2012 were included. Segmental colonic or rectal resection was performed. The primary outcome measured was 90-day mortality. Included were 195,118 patients, treated at 147 Trusts. Ninety-day mortality rates after elective and nonelective surgery were 4% and 18%. No unit with high outlying mortality for elective surgery was a high outlier for nonelective mortality and vice versa. Trust level, observed-to-expected mortality for elective and nonelective surgery, was moderately correlated (Spearman ρ = 0.50, p< 0.001). This study relied on administrative data and may be limited by potential flaws in the quality of coding of clinical information. Status as an institutional mortality outlier after elective and nonelective colorectal surgery was not closely related. Therefore, mortality rates should be reported for both patient cohorts separately. This would provide a broad picture of the state of colorectal services and help direct research and quality improvement activities.

Changes in water consumption linked to heavy news media coverage of extreme climatic events

PubMed Central

Quesnel, Kimberly J.; Ajami, Newsha K.

2017-01-01

Public awareness of water- and drought-related issues is an important yet relatively unexplored component of water use behavior. To examine this relationship, we first quantified news media coverage of drought in California from 2005 to 2015, a period with two distinct droughts; the later drought received unprecedentedly high media coverage, whereas the earlier drought did not, as the United States was experiencing an economic downturn coinciding with a historic presidential election. Comparing this coverage to Google search frequency confirmed that public attention followed news media trends. We then modeled single-family residential water consumption in 20 service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area during the same period using geospatially explicit data and including news media coverage as a covariate. Model outputs revealed the factors affecting water use for populations of varying demographics. Importantly, the models estimated that an increase of 100 drought-related articles in a bimonthly period was associated with an 11 to 18% reduction in water use. Then, we evaluated high-resolution water consumption data from smart meters, known as advanced metering infrastructure, in one of the previously modeled service areas to evaluate breakpoints in water use trends. Results demonstrated that whereas nonresidential commercial irrigation customers responded to changes in climate, single-family residential customers decreased water use at the fastest rate following heavy drought-related news media coverage. These results highlight the need for water resource planners and decision makers to further consider the importance of effective, internally and externally driven, public awareness and education in water demand behavior and management. PMID:29075664

Changes in water consumption linked to heavy news media coverage of extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Quesnel, Kimberly J; Ajami, Newsha K

2017-10-01

Public awareness of water- and drought-related issues is an important yet relatively unexplored component of water use behavior. To examine this relationship, we first quantified news media coverage of drought in California from 2005 to 2015, a period with two distinct droughts; the later drought received unprecedentedly high media coverage, whereas the earlier drought did not, as the United States was experiencing an economic downturn coinciding with a historic presidential election. Comparing this coverage to Google search frequency confirmed that public attention followed news media trends. We then modeled single-family residential water consumption in 20 service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area during the same period using geospatially explicit data and including news media coverage as a covariate. Model outputs revealed the factors affecting water use for populations of varying demographics. Importantly, the models estimated that an increase of 100 drought-related articles in a bimonthly period was associated with an 11 to 18% reduction in water use. Then, we evaluated high-resolution water consumption data from smart meters, known as advanced metering infrastructure, in one of the previously modeled service areas to evaluate breakpoints in water use trends. Results demonstrated that whereas nonresidential commercial irrigation customers responded to changes in climate, single-family residential customers decreased water use at the fastest rate following heavy drought-related news media coverage. These results highlight the need for water resource planners and decision makers to further consider the importance of effective, internally and externally driven, public awareness and education in water demand behavior and management.

Arctic storms simulated in atmospheric general circulation models under uniform high, uniform low, and variable resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesler, E. L.; Bosler, P. A.; Taylor, M.

2016-12-01

The impact of strong extratropical storms on coastal communities is large, and the extent to which storms will change with a warming Arctic is unknown. Understanding storms in reanalysis and in climate models is important for future predictions. We know that the number of detected Arctic storms in reanalysis is sensitive to grid resolution. To understand Arctic storm sensitivity to resolution in climate models, we describe simulations designed to identify and compare Arctic storms at uniform low resolution (1 degree), at uniform high resolution (1/8 degree), and at variable resolution (1 degree to 1/8 degree). High-resolution simulations resolve more fine-scale structure and extremes, such as storms, in the atmosphere than a uniform low-resolution simulation. However, the computational cost of running a globally uniform high-resolution simulation is often prohibitive. The variable resolution tool in atmospheric general circulation models permits regional high-resolution solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The storms are identified using the open-source search algorithm, Stride Search. The uniform high-resolution simulation has over 50% more storms than the uniform low-resolution and over 25% more storms than the variable resolution simulations. Storm statistics from each of the simulations is presented and compared with reanalysis. We propose variable resolution as a cost-effective means of investigating physics/dynamics coupling in the Arctic environment. Future work will include comparisons with observed storms to investigate tuning parameters for high resolution models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2016-7402 A

Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model

PubMed Central

Aichholzer, Julian; Willmann, Johanna

2014-01-01

Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 (n=18), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades. PMID:26339109

Rescaling Vocational Education: Workforce Development in a Metropolitan Region

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lakes, Richard D.

2008-01-01

This article profiles a vocational charter school located in Atlanta as an institutional model for customized industry training in the high-tech production firms located nearby. Social partnerships with business and industry, parents and educators, and elected officials will be illuminated, exhibiting new forms of neoliberalism that reconstitute…

A resolution recognizing the recent accomplishments of the people and Government of Moldova and expressing support for free and transparent parliamentary elections on November 28, 2010.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Kerry, John F. [D-MA

2010-11-18

Senate - 11/18/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Evaluating a New Online Course in the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases by Studying Student Learning Styles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, James W.; Cox, James R.

2008-01-01

At RMIT University, students may now elect to study infectious diseases through a course called Outbreak--The Detection and Control of Infectious Disease. Outbreak was designed to simulate in an online class the effective teamwork required to bring resolution to outbreak crises and enable frameworks for future prevention. The appropriateness of…

A resolution marking the one year anniversary of the June 12, 2009, presidential election in Iran, and condemning ongoing human rights abuses in Iran.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Kaufman, Edward E. [D-DE

2010-06-14

Senate - 06/14/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution expressing the sense of the Senate regarding the positive effect of the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary elections on Iraq's political reconciliation and democratic institutions.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Kerry, John F. [D-MA

2010-03-04

Senate - 03/04/2010 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Predictors of outcome after elective endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair and external validation of a risk prediction model.

PubMed

Wisniowski, Brendan; Barnes, Mary; Jenkins, Jason; Boyne, Nicholas; Kruger, Allan; Walker, Philip J

2011-09-01

Endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair (EVAR) has been associated with lower operative mortality and morbidity than open surgery but comparable long-term mortality and higher delayed complication and reintervention rates. Attention has therefore been directed to identifying preoperative and operative variables that influence outcomes after EVAR. Risk-prediction models, such as the EVAR Risk Assessment (ERA) model, have also been developed to help surgeons plan EVAR procedures. The aims of this study were (1) to describe outcomes of elective EVAR at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), (2) to identify preoperative and operative variables predictive of outcomes after EVAR, and (3) to externally validate the ERA model. All elective EVAR procedures at the RBWH before July 1, 2009, were reviewed. Descriptive analyses were performed to determine the outcomes. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify preoperative and operative variables predictive of outcomes after EVAR. Binomial logistic regression analyses were used to externally validate the ERA model. Before July 1, 2009, 197 patients (172 men), who were a mean age of 72.8 years, underwent elective EVAR at the RBWH. Operative mortality was 1.0%. Survival was 81.1% at 3 years and 63.2% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis showed predictors of survival were age (P = .0126), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (P = .0180), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P = .0348) at 3 years and age (P = .0103), ASA score (P = .0006), renal failure (P = .0048), and serum creatinine (P = .0022) at 5 years. Aortic branch vessel score was predictive of initial (30-day) type II endoleak (P = .0015). AAA tortuosity was predictive of midterm type I endoleak (P = .0251). Female sex was associated with lower rates of initial clinical success (P = .0406). The ERA model fitted RBWH data well for early death (C statistic = .906), 3-year survival (C statistic = .735), 5-year survival (C statistic = .800), and initial type I endoleak (C statistic = .850). The outcomes of elective EVAR at the RBWH are broadly consistent with those of a nationwide Australian audit and recent randomized trials. Age and ASA score are independent predictors of midterm survival after elective EVAR. The ERA model predicts mortality-related outcomes and initial type I endoleak well for RBWH elective EVAR patients. Copyright © 2011 Society for Vascular Surgery. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a predictive model for 90-day readmission following elective spine surgery.

PubMed

Parker, Scott L; Sivaganesan, Ahilan; Chotai, Silky; McGirt, Matthew J; Asher, Anthony L; Devin, Clinton J

2018-06-15

OBJECTIVE Hospital readmissions lead to a significant increase in the total cost of care in patients undergoing elective spine surgery. Understanding factors associated with an increased risk of postoperative readmission could facilitate a reduction in such occurrences. The aims of this study were to develop and validate a predictive model for 90-day hospital readmission following elective spine surgery. METHODS All patients undergoing elective spine surgery for degenerative disease were enrolled in a prospective longitudinal registry. All 90-day readmissions were prospectively recorded. For predictive modeling, all covariates were selected by choosing those variables that were significantly associated with readmission and by incorporating other relevant variables based on clinical intuition and the Akaike information criterion. Eighty percent of the sample was randomly selected for model development and 20% for model validation. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to model the odds of 90-day readmission. Goodness of fit was assessed via the C-statistic, that is, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), using the training data set. Discrimination (predictive performance) was assessed using the C-statistic, as applied to the 20% validation data set. RESULTS A total of 2803 consecutive patients were enrolled in the registry, and their data were analyzed for this study. Of this cohort, 227 (8.1%) patients were readmitted to the hospital (for any cause) within 90 days postoperatively. Variables significantly associated with an increased risk of readmission were as follows (OR [95% CI]): lumbar surgery 1.8 [1.1-2.8], government-issued insurance 2.0 [1.4-3.0], hypertension 2.1 [1.4-3.3], prior myocardial infarction 2.2 [1.2-3.8], diabetes 2.5 [1.7-3.7], and coagulation disorder 3.1 [1.6-5.8]. These variables, in addition to others determined a priori to be clinically relevant, comprised 32 inputs in the predictive model constructed using BMA. The AUC value for the training data set was 0.77 for model development and 0.76 for model validation. CONCLUSIONS Identification of high-risk patients is feasible with the novel predictive model presented herein. Appropriate allocation of resources to reduce the postoperative incidence of readmission may reduce the readmission rate and the associated health care costs.

Ask and Ye Shall Receive? Automated Text Mining of Michigan Capital Facility Finance Bond Election Proposals to Identify Which Topics Are Associated with Bond Passage and Voter Turnout

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowers, Alex J.; Chen, Jingjing

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to bring together recent innovations in the research literature around school district capital facility finance, municipal bond elections, statistical models of conditional time-varying outcomes, and data mining algorithms for automated text mining of election ballot proposals to examine the factors that influence the…

Cesar Chavez--Grade Nine Model Curriculum and Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Dept. of Education, Sacramento.

This California state curriculum model for grade 9 about Cesar Chavez explains that grade 9 is an elective year for social studies courses and that one of the electives is a course about contemporary California. It suggests that students in schools offering this course could study the role of Chavez in 20th century California and his legacy. A…

Universal scaling laws in metro area election results.

PubMed

Bokányi, Eszter; Szállási, Zoltán; Vattay, Gábor

2018-01-01

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and the immigration paradox.

Sensitivity to grid resolution in the ability of a chemical transport model to simulate observed oxidant chemistry under high-isoprene conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Karen; Jacob, Daniel J.; Fisher, Jenny A.; Kim, Patrick S.; Marais, Eloise A.; Miller, Christopher C.; Travis, Katherine R.; Zhu, Lei; Yantosca, Robert M.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Cohen, Ron C.; Dibb, Jack E.; Fried, Alan; Mikoviny, Tomas; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Wennberg, Paul O.; Wisthaler, Armin

2016-04-01

Formation of ozone and organic aerosol in continental atmospheres depends on whether isoprene emitted by vegetation is oxidized by the high-NOx pathway (where peroxy radicals react with NO) or by low-NOx pathways (where peroxy radicals react by alternate channels, mostly with HO2). We used mixed layer observations from the SEAC4RS aircraft campaign over the Southeast US to test the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at different grid resolutions (0.25° × 0.3125°, 2° × 2.5°, 4° × 5°) to simulate this chemistry under high-isoprene, variable-NOx conditions. Observations of isoprene and NOx over the Southeast US show a negative correlation, reflecting the spatial segregation of emissions; this negative correlation is captured in the model at 0.25° × 0.3125° resolution but not at coarser resolutions. As a result, less isoprene oxidation takes place by the high-NOx pathway in the model at 0.25° × 0.3125° resolution (54 %) than at coarser resolution (59 %). The cumulative probability distribution functions (CDFs) of NOx, isoprene, and ozone concentrations show little difference across model resolutions and good agreement with observations, while formaldehyde is overestimated at coarse resolution because excessive isoprene oxidation takes place by the high-NOx pathway with high formaldehyde yield. The good agreement of simulated and observed concentration variances implies that smaller-scale non-linearities (urban and power plant plumes) are not important on the regional scale. Correlations of simulated vs. observed concentrations do not improve with grid resolution because finer modes of variability are intrinsically more difficult to capture. Higher model resolution leads to decreased conversion of NOx to organic nitrates and increased conversion to nitric acid, with total reactive nitrogen oxides (NOy) changing little across model resolutions. Model concentrations in the lower free troposphere are also insensitive to grid resolution. The overall low sensitivity of modeled concentrations to grid resolution implies that coarse resolution is adequate when modeling continental boundary layer chemistry for global applications.

Review of GaN-based devices for terahertz operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahi, Kiarash

2017-09-01

GaN provides the highest electron saturation velocity, breakdown voltage, operation temperature, and thus the highest combined frequency-power performance among commonly used semiconductors. The industrial need for compact, economical, high-resolution, and high-power terahertz (THz) imaging and spectroscopy systems are promoting the utilization of GaN for implementing the next generation of THz systems. As it is reviewed, the mentioned characteristics of GaN together with its capabilities of providing high two-dimensional election densities and large longitudinal optical phonon of ˜90 meV make it one of the most promising semiconductor materials for the future of the THz emitters, detectors, mixers, and frequency multiplicators. GaN-based devices have shown capabilities of operation in the upper THz frequency band of 5 to 12 THz with relatively high photon densities in room temperature. As a result, THz imaging and spectroscopy systems with high resolution and deep depth of penetration can be realized through utilizing GaN-based devices. A comprehensive review of the history and the state of the art of GaN-based electronic devices, including plasma heterostructure field-effect transistors, negative differential resistances, hetero-dimensional Schottky diodes, impact avalanche transit times, quantum-cascade lasers, high electron mobility transistors, Gunn diodes, and tera field-effect transistors together with their impact on the future of THz imaging and spectroscopy systems is provided.

Effect of high up front charges on access to surgery for poor patients at a public hospital in New Mexico.

PubMed

Kaufman, Will; Chavez, Augustine S; Skipper, Betty; Kaufman, Arthur

2006-06-23

A public hospital in New Mexico required collection of 50% of estimated costs prior to elective surgeries for self-pay patients. This study assesses the impact of this policy on access to elective surgical procedures. Chi-square tests determined if there was a statistically significant difference between the number of self-pay and insured patient cancellations for financial reasons. A multivariate binomial regression model was used to calculate risk ratios and confidence limits for effects of race/ethnicity, and insurance status, controlling for gender, on these cancellations. Of the 667 cancellations, there were 99 self-pay and 568 insured patients. Cancellations for financial reasons occurred in 55.6% of self-pay and 9.3% of insured patients (p < 0.0001). Inability to pay 50% up front accounted for 76.4% of self-pay patient cancellations for financial reasons. Self-pay, non-Hispanic whites and minority race/ethnicities were 8.76 and 8.61 times more likely to cancel for financial reasons, respectively, than insured non-Hispanic whites. Self-pay patients, regardless of race/ethnicity, have elective surgical procedures cancelled for financial reasons significantly more often than insured patients. The hospital's 50% up-front payment policy represents a significant financial barrier to accessing elective surgical procedures for self-pay patients.

Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra-Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Stern, Bill; Gudgel, Rich; Zeng, Fanrong

2018-05-01

The Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) is an important component of the atmospheric circulation over the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) which impacts the weather and climate both locally and remotely. It influences the rainfall variability in the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, the tropical Pacific and the continental Unites States through the transport of moisture. We make use of high-resolution coupled and uncoupled models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections and further compare with low-resolution models. The high-resolution coupled model FLOR shows improvements in the simulation of the CLLJ and its teleconnections with rainfall and SST over the IAS compared to the low-resolution coupled model CM2.1. The CLLJ is better represented in uncoupled models (AM2.1 and AM2.5) forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), emphasizing the role of SSTs in the simulation of the CLLJ. Further, we determine the forecast skill for observed rainfall using both high- and low-resolution predictions of rainfall and SSTs for the July-August-September season. We determine the role of statistical correction of model biases, coupling and horizontal resolution on the forecast skill. Statistical correction dramatically improves area-averaged forecast skill. But the analysis of spatial distribution in skill indicates that the improvement in skill after statistical correction is region dependent. Forecast skill is sensitive to coupling in parts of the Caribbean, Central and northern South America, and it is mostly insensitive over North America. Comparison of forecast skill between high and low-resolution coupled models does not show any dramatic difference. However, uncoupled models show improvement in the area-averaged skill in the high-resolution atmospheric model compared to lower resolution model. Understanding and improving the forecast skill over the IAS has important implications for highly vulnerable nations in the region.

AVHRR/1-FM Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The advanced very high resolution radiometer is discussed. The program covers design, construction, and test of a breadboard model, engineering model, protoflight model, mechanical/structural model, and a life test model. Special bench test and calibration equipment was developed for use on the program. The flight model program objectives were to fabricate, assemble and test four of the advanced very high resolution radiometers along with a bench cooler and collimator.

The Convergence Coefficient across Political Systems

PubMed Central

Schofield, Norman

2013-01-01

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties or candidates should locate themselves at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain nonconvergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including estimates of electoral valence. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c. It has been shown that high values of c imply that there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. We used electoral surveys to construct a stochastic valence model of the the elections in various countries. We find that the convergence coefficient varies across elections in a country, across countries with similar regimes, and across political regimes. In some countries, the centripetal tendency leads parties to converge to the electoral mean. In others the centrifugal tendency dominates and some parties locate far from the electoral mean. In particular, for countries with proportional electoral systems, namely, Israel, Turkey, and Poland, the centrifugal tendency is very high. In the majoritarian polities of the United States and Great Britain, the centrifugal tendency is very low. In anocracies, the autocrat imposes limitations on how far from the origin the opposition parties can move. PMID:24385886

The convergence coefficient across political systems.

PubMed

Gallego, Maria; Schofield, Norman

2013-01-01

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties or candidates should locate themselves at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain nonconvergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including estimates of electoral valence. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c. It has been shown that high values of c imply that there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. We used electoral surveys to construct a stochastic valence model of the the elections in various countries. We find that the convergence coefficient varies across elections in a country, across countries with similar regimes, and across political regimes. In some countries, the centripetal tendency leads parties to converge to the electoral mean. In others the centrifugal tendency dominates and some parties locate far from the electoral mean. In particular, for countries with proportional electoral systems, namely, Israel, Turkey, and Poland, the centrifugal tendency is very high. In the majoritarian polities of the United States and Great Britain, the centrifugal tendency is very low. In anocracies, the autocrat imposes limitations on how far from the origin the opposition parties can move.

High-resolution DEM Effects on Geophysical Flow Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, M. R.; Bursik, M. I.; Stefanescu, R. E. R.; Patra, A. K.

2014-12-01

Geophysical mass flow models are numerical models that approximate pyroclastic flow events and can be used to assess the volcanic hazards certain areas may face. One such model, TITAN2D, approximates granular-flow physics based on a depth-averaged analytical model using inputs of basal and internal friction, material volume at a coordinate point, and a GIS in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). The volume of modeled material propagates over the DEM in a way that is governed by the slope and curvature of the DEM surface and the basal and internal friction angles. Results from TITAN2D are highly dependent upon the inputs to the model. Here we focus on a single input: the DEM, which can vary in resolution. High resolution DEMs are advantageous in that they contain more surface details than lower-resolution models, presumably allowing modeled flows to propagate in a way more true to the real surface. However, very high resolution DEMs can create undesirable artifacts in the slope and curvature that corrupt flow calculations. With high-resolution DEMs becoming more widely available and preferable for use, determining the point at which high resolution data is less advantageous compared to lower resolution data becomes important. We find that in cases of high resolution, integer-valued DEMs, very high-resolution is detrimental to good model outputs when moderate-to-low (<10-15°) slope angles are involved. At these slope angles, multiple adjacent DEM cell elevation values are equal due to the need for the DEM to approximate the low slope with a limited set of integer values for elevation. The first derivative of the elevation surface thus becomes zero. In these cases, flow propagation is inhibited by these spurious zero-slope conditions. Here we present evidence for this "terracing effect" from 1) a mathematically defined simulated elevation model, to demonstrate the terracing effects of integer valued data, and 2) a real-world DEM where terracing must be addressed. We discuss the effect on the flow model output and present possible solutions for rectification of the problem.

Mesosacle eddies in a high resolution OGCM and coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, H.; Lin, P.

2017-12-01

The present study described high-resolution climate modeling efforts including oceanic, atmospheric and coupled general circulation model (GCM) at the state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The high-resolution OGCM is established based on the latest version of the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM2.1), but its horizontal resolution and vertical resolution are increased to 1/10° and 55 layers, respectively. Forced by the surface fluxes from the reanalysis and observed data, the model has been integrated for approximately more than 80 model years. Compared with the simulation of the coarse-resolution OGCM, the eddy-resolving OGCM not only better simulates the spatial-temporal features of mesoscale eddies and the paths and positions of western boundary currents but also reproduces the large meander of the Kuroshio Current and its interannual variability. Another aspect, namely, the complex structures of equatorial Pacific currents and currents in the coastal ocean of China, are better captured due to the increased horizontal and vertical resolution. Then we coupled the high resolution OGCM to NCAR CAM4 with 25km resolution, in which the mesoscale air-sea interaction processes are better captured.

Analyzing and leveraging self-similarity for variable resolution atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Variable resolution modeling techniques are rapidly becoming a popular strategy for achieving high resolution in a global atmospheric models without the computational cost of global high resolution. However, recent studies have demonstrated a variety of resolution-dependent, and seemingly artificial, features. We argue that the scaling properties of the atmosphere are key to understanding how the statistics of an atmospheric model should change with resolution. We provide two such examples. In the first example we show that the scaling properties of the cloud number distribution define how the ratio of resolved to unresolved clouds should increase with resolution. We show that the loss of resolved clouds, in the high resolution region of variable resolution simulations, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) is an artifact of the model's treatment of condensed water (this artifact is significantly reduced in CAM5). In the second example we show that the scaling properties of the horizontal velocity field, combined with the incompressibility assumption, necessarily result in an intensification of vertical mass flux as resolution increases. We show that such an increase is present in a wide variety of models, including CAM and the regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES intercomparision. We present theoretical arguments linking this increase to the intensification of precipitation with increasing resolution.

The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

2015-09-01

The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

[International Health Electives in developing countries for medical and nursing students: four experiences from French-speaking Switzerland].

PubMed

Chastonay, Philippe; Baumann, Fritz; Chastonay, Oriane; Staudacher, Kevin; Verloo, Henk; Kabengele, Emmanuel; Mattig, Thomas; Michaud, Pierre-André; Bernheim, Laurent

2015-06-10

International Health Electives performed in developing countries by students of medical and nursing schools from industrialized nations have recently become a highly valued element in curricula of medical and nursing schools. We report here four examples of such electives developed over the years at the Faculties of medicine of Geneva and Lausanne, one involving both medical and nursing school students. These electives foster enthusiasm and commitment among students and host institutions abroad. A selective review of the literature highlights the many positive aspects of such electives for the professional and personal development of students. It also emphasizes what the host institutions can gain from these electives provided the latter are organized in a balanced partnership and that the students receive a careful preparation to avoid possible pitfalls.

Elective induction of labor.

PubMed

Moore, Lisa E; Rayburn, William F

2006-09-01

Induction of labor rates have more than doubled nationwide in the past 15 years. The increase in medically induced inductions was slower than the overall increase, suggesting that inductions for marginal or elective reasons rose more rapidly. Elective inductions seem to account for at least half of all inductions and 10% of all deliveries. Whether the experience of an elective induction is satisfactory to the patient, obstetrician, and intrapartum crew warrants more widespread attention. Cesarean rates are high for nulliparas undergoing an induction with an unfavorable cervix. Prospective studies are limited or nonexistent to recommend induction of labor for elective or marginal indications. Until more prospective work is performed, it will be difficult to evaluate the true impact of the elective induction of labor on population-wide cesarean delivery rates. Strategies for increased obstetrician awareness are proposed through practice guidelines and through clinical research trials.

Rein and Zheng Elected to American Academy of Microbiology | Poster

Cancer.gov

By Nancy Parrish, Staff Writer Earlier this year, Alan Rein, Ph.D., and Zhi-Ming (Thomas) Zheng, M.D., Ph.D., were elected to fellowship in the American Academy of Microbiology, the honorific leadership group within the American Society for Microbiology (ASM). They were among 88 microbiologists who were elected to the academy “through a highly selective, peer-review process,

College Students' Perspectives, Goals, and Strategies in Sport Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinelnikov, Oleg A.; Hastie, Peter A.

2012-01-01

We examined the perspective, goals, and strategies of students enrolled in collegiate physical education courses. Our aim was to determine the extent to which a model developed by Allen (1986) describing student-social systems in high schools would approximate those in a collegiate setting. Forty-six students from two elective volleyball classes…

Voting contagion: Modeling and analysis of a century of U.S. presidential elections

PubMed Central

de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

2017-01-01

Social influence plays an important role in human behavior and decisions. Sources of influence can be divided as external, which are independent of social context, or as originating from peers, such as family and friends. An important question is how to disentangle the social contagion by peers from external influences. While a variety of experimental and observational studies provided insight into this problem, identifying the extent of contagion based on large-scale observational data with an unknown network structure remains largely unexplored. By bridging the gap between the large-scale complex systems perspective of collective human dynamics and the detailed approach of social sciences, we present a parsimonious model of social influence, and apply it to a central topic in political science—elections and voting behavior. We provide an analytical expression of the county vote-share distribution, which is in excellent agreement with almost a century of observed U.S. presidential election data. Analyzing the social influence topography over this period reveals an abrupt phase transition from low to high levels of social contagion, and robust differences among regions. These results suggest that social contagion effects are becoming more instrumental in shaping large-scale collective political behavior, with implications on democratic electoral processes and policies. PMID:28542409

A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the National Mediation Board relating to representation election procedures.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Isakson, Johnny [R-GA

2010-05-11

Senate - 09/23/2010 Motion to proceed to consideration of measure rejected in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 43 - 56. Record Vote Number: 239. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Staff relations and work-life balance: course outline.

PubMed

Harvey, A; Durrance, D; Couger, G

2001-01-01

Changes in the American workforce have intensified the need for veterinary medical education regarding staff relations and work-life balance. A 20-hour, one-week elective course was offered to junior veterinary students in order to provide a forum for lecture and discussion covering topics such as team building, conflict resolution, stress management, and work-life balance. Instructors are master's level counselors.

Teaching about Big Money in Elections: To Amend or Not to Amend the U.S. Constitution?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartwick, James M. M.; Levy, Brett L. M.

2012-01-01

Last summer, California and Massachusetts became the sixth and seventh states--along with Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Maryland--to send a resolution to the U.S. Congress calling for a constitutional amendment to (1) end the court's extension of personhood rights to corporations, and (2) enable the government to definitively…

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-21

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements.

A 4.5 km resolution Arctic Ocean simulation with the global multi-resolution model FESOM 1.4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiang; Wekerle, Claudia; Danilov, Sergey; Wang, Xuezhu; Jung, Thomas

2018-04-01

In the framework of developing a global modeling system which can facilitate modeling studies on Arctic Ocean and high- to midlatitude linkage, we evaluate the Arctic Ocean simulated by the multi-resolution Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM). To explore the value of using high horizontal resolution for Arctic Ocean modeling, we use two global meshes differing in the horizontal resolution only in the Arctic Ocean (24 km vs. 4.5 km). The high resolution significantly improves the model's representation of the Arctic Ocean. The most pronounced improvement is in the Arctic intermediate layer, in terms of both Atlantic Water (AW) mean state and variability. The deepening and thickening bias of the AW layer, a common issue found in coarse-resolution simulations, is significantly alleviated by using higher resolution. The topographic steering of the AW is stronger and the seasonal and interannual temperature variability along the ocean bottom topography is enhanced in the high-resolution simulation. The high resolution also improves the ocean surface circulation, mainly through a better representation of the narrow straits in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The representation of CAA throughflow not only influences the release of water masses through the other gateways but also the circulation pathways inside the Arctic Ocean. However, the mean state and variability of Arctic freshwater content and the variability of freshwater transport through the Arctic gateways appear not to be very sensitive to the increase in resolution employed here. By highlighting the issues that are independent of model resolution, we address that other efforts including the improvement of parameterizations are still required.

High resolution modelling and observation of wind-driven surface currents in a semi-enclosed estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, S.; Hartnett, M.; McKinstry, A.; Ragnoli, E.; Nagle, D.

2012-04-01

Hydrodynamic circulation in estuaries is primarily driven by tides, river inflows and surface winds. While tidal and river data can be quite easily obtained for input to hydrodynamic models, sourcing accurate surface wind data is problematic. Firstly, the wind data used in hydrodynamic models is usually measured on land and can be quite different in magnitude and direction from offshore winds. Secondly, surface winds are spatially-varying but due to a lack of data it is common practice to specify a non-varying wind speed and direction across the full extents of a model domain. These problems can lead to inaccuracies in the surface currents computed by three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. In the present research, a wind forecast model is coupled with a three-dimensional numerical model of Galway Bay, a semi-enclosed estuary on the west coast of Ireland, to investigate the effect of surface wind data resolution on model accuracy. High resolution and low resolution wind fields are specified to the model and the computed surface currents are compared with high resolution surface current measurements obtained from two high frequency SeaSonde-type Coastal Ocean Dynamics Applications Radars (CODAR). The wind forecast models used for the research are Harmonie cy361.3, running on 2.5 and 0.5km spatial grids for the low resolution and high resolution models respectively. The low-resolution model runs over an Irish domain on 540x500 grid points with 60 vertical levels and a 60s timestep and is driven by ECMWF boundary conditions. The nested high-resolution model uses 300x300 grid points on 60 vertical levels and a 12s timestep. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) is used for the hydrodynamic model. The Galway Bay model has ten vertical layers and is resolved spatially and temporally at 150m and 4 sec respectively. The hydrodynamic model is run for selected hindcast dates when wind fields were highly energetic. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind data is provided by offline coupling with the wind forecast models. Modelled surface currents show good correlation with CODAR observed currents and the resolution of the surface wind data is shown to be important for model accuracy.

A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

Universal scaling laws in metro area election results

PubMed Central

Szállási, Zoltán; Vattay, Gábor

2018-01-01

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948–2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and the immigration paradox. PMID:29470518

Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

2016-11-14

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

A multiplicative process for generating a beta-like survival function with application to the UK 2016 EU referendum results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenner, Trevor; Kaufmann, Eric; Levene, Mark; Loizou, George

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Contextual and selection effects tend to produce extreme values in the tails of rank-ordered distributions of both census data and district-level election outcomes. Models that account for this nonlinearity generally outperform linear models. Fitting nonlinear functions based on rank-ordering census and election data therefore improves the fit of aggregate voting models. This may help improve ecological inference, as well as election forecasting in majoritarian systems. We propose a generative multiplicative decrease model that gives rise to a rank-order distribution and facilitates the analysis of the recent UK EU referendum results. We supply empirical evidence that the beta-like survival function, which can be generated directly from our model, is a close fit to the referendum results, and also may have predictive value when covariate data are available.

Predicted and experienced affective responses to the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

PubMed

Kitchens, Michael B; Corser, Grant C; Gohm, Carol L; VonWaldner, Kristen L; Foreman, Elizabeth L

2010-12-01

People typically have intense feelings about politics. Therefore, it was no surprise that the campaign and eventual election of Barack Obama were highly anticipated and emotionally charged events, making it and the emotion experienced afterward a useful situation in which to replicate prior research showing that people typically overestimate the intensity and duration of their future affective states. Consequently, it was expected that Obama supporters and McCain supporters might overestimate the intensity of their affective responses to the outcome of the election. Data showed that while McCain supporters underestimated how happy they would be following the election, Obama supporters accurately predicted how happy they would be following the election. These data provide descriptive information on the accuracy of people's predicted reactions to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The findings are discussed in the context of the broad literature and this specific and unique event.

Large-scale microfluidics providing high-resolution and high-throughput screening of Caenorhabditis elegans poly-glutamine aggregation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, Sudip; Hegarty, Evan; Martin, Chris; Gökçe, Sertan Kutal; Ghorashian, Navid; Ben-Yakar, Adela

2016-10-01

Next generation drug screening could benefit greatly from in vivo studies, using small animal models such as Caenorhabditis elegans for hit identification and lead optimization. Current in vivo assays can operate either at low throughput with high resolution or with low resolution at high throughput. To enable both high-throughput and high-resolution imaging of C. elegans, we developed an automated microfluidic platform. This platform can image 15 z-stacks of ~4,000 C. elegans from 96 different populations using a large-scale chip with a micron resolution in 16 min. Using this platform, we screened ~100,000 animals of the poly-glutamine aggregation model on 25 chips. We tested the efficacy of ~1,000 FDA-approved drugs in improving the aggregation phenotype of the model and identified four confirmed hits. This robust platform now enables high-content screening of various C. elegans disease models at the speed and cost of in vitro cell-based assays.

DMI's Baltic Sea Coastal operational forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Jens; Berg, Per; Weismann Poulsen, Jacob

2017-04-01

Operational forecasting is challenged with bridging the gap between the large scales of the driving weather systems and the local, human scales of the model applications. The limit of what can be represented by local model has been continuously shifted to higher and higher spatial resolution, with the aim to better resolve the local dynamic and to make it possible to describe processes that could only be parameterised in older versions, with the ultimate goal to improve the quality of the forecast. Current hardware trends demand a str onger focus on the development of efficient, highly parallelised software and require a refactoring of the code with a solid focus on portable performance. The gained performance can be used for running high resolution model with a larger coverage. Together with the development of efficient two-way nesting routines, this has made it possible to approach the near-coastal zone with model applications that can run in a time effective way. Denmarks Meteorological Institute uses the HBM(1) ocean circulation model for applications that covers the entire Baltic Sea and North Sea with an integrated model set-up that spans the range of horizontal resolution from 1nm for the entire Baltic Sea to approx. 200m resolution in local fjords (Limfjord). For the next model generation, the high resolution set-ups are going to be extended and new high resolution domains in coastal zones are either implemented or tested for operational use. For the first time it will be possible to cover large stretches of the Baltic coastal zone with sufficiently high resolution to model the local hydrodynamic adequately. (1) HBM stands for HIROMB-BOOS-Model, whereas HIROMB stands for "High Resolution Model for the Baltic Sea" and BOOS stands for "Baltic Operational Oceanography System".

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1 C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO{sub 2}, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model capturesmore » modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1 C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4-6 C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age - consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.« less

Cancelled surgeries and payment by results in the English National Health Service.

PubMed

McIntosh, Bryan; Cookson, Graham; Jones, Simon

2012-04-01

To model the frequency of 'last minute' cancellations of planned elective procedures in the English NHS with respect to the patient and provider factors that led to these cancellations. A dataset of 5,288,604 elective patients spell in the English NHS from January 1st, 2007 to December 31st, 2007 was extracted from the Hospital Episode Statistics. A binary dependent variable indicating whether or not a patient had a Health Resource Group coded as S22--'Planned elective procedure not carried out'--was modeled using a probit regression estimated via maximum likelihood including patient, case and hospital level covariates. Longer waiting times and being admitted on a Monday were associated with a greater rate of cancelled procedures. Male patients, patients from lower socio-economic groups and older patients had higher rates of cancelled procedures. There was significant variation in cancellation rates between hospitals; Foundation Trusts and private facilities had the lowest cancellation rates. Further research is needed on why Foundation Trusts exhibit lower cancellation rates. Hospitals with relatively high cancellation rates should be encouraged to tackle this problem. Further evidence is needed on whether hospitals are more likely to cancel operations where the procedure tariff is lower than the S22 tariff as this creates a perverse incentive to cancel. Understanding the underlying causes of why male, older and patients from lower socio-economic groups are more likely to have their operations cancelled is important to inform the appropriate policy response. This research suggests that interventions designed to reduce cancellation rates should be targeted to high-cancellation groups.

Ensuring the Health, Safety and Preparedness of U.S. Medical Students Participating in Global Health Electives Overseas.

PubMed

Imperato, Pascal James; Bruno, Denise M; Monica Sweeney, M

2016-04-01

Global health electives based in resource-poor countries have become extremely popular with medical students from resource rich ones. As the number of such programs and participants increase, so too do the absolute health and safety risks. It is clear from a number of published reports that many institutions provide little or no meaningful preparedness for students and do little to ensure their health and safety. These deficiencies together can affect students, their foreign hosts, and sponsoring institutions. The School of Public Health at the State University of New York, Downstate Medical Center, and its predecessor, the Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health, have sponsored a 6-8 week global health elective for fourth year medical students since 1980. The purposes of this elective are to provide students with an opportunity to observe the health care and public health systems in resource-poor countries, provide medical service, and have a cross-cultural experience. Over the course of the past 35 years, 386 students have participated in this global health elective in more than 41 resource-poor countries. Recent annual applications for this elective have been as high as 44 out of a class of 200 students. Over the past 10 years, annual acceptance rates have varied, ranging from a low of 32 % in 2007-2008 to a high of 74 % in 2010-2011 and 2013-2014. Careful screening, including a written application, review of academic records and personal interviews, has resulted in the selection of highly mature, adaptable, and dedicated students who have performed well at overseas sites. Appropriately preparing students for an overseas global health experience in resource-poor countries requires the investment of much professional and staff time and effort. At the SUNY Downstate School of Public Health, these resources have underpinned our Global Health in Developing Countries elective for many years. As a result, the elective is characterized by meticulous organization, extensive preparedness measures for students, and continuous monitoring of site and country safety. The health of students is ensured by one-on-one assessment of immunization needs, anti-malarials, and the provision of a five-day supply of post-exposure HIV prophylaxis. Students sign agreements regarding the legal issues, immunizations, and anti-malarials recommended as well as HIV post-exposure prophylaxis. They are also required to obtain medical evacuation insurance provided by the university, and medical care insurance valid overseas. Student travel plans are also approved as is in-country lodging. The focus of our 6-8 week global health elective is not clinical medicine. Rather, it is to enable students to learn about the health care and public health systems in a resource-poor country. Through that focus, they also come to understand the causes of health and health care disparities that exist in the country to which they are assigned. Our students are greatly advantaged with regard to cross-cultural understanding since our school is located in New York City's Borough of Brooklyn, where 40 % of the population was born outside of the U.S. Our comprehensive effort at risk management for this global health elective includes a thorough debriefing for each student upon his/her return. Special attention is given to ascertaining illness or injury while overseas, and, when necessary, immediate referral is made to an appropriate university clinical department where a student can be appropriately case managed. Meticulous oversight, careful selection of safe overseas sites, and attention to preparing students have resulted in significant risk reduction and successful experiences for the majority of our 386 students. This article describes the model we have developed for ensuring the health, safety, and preparedness of students participating in our global health elective.

Trending elective preterm deliveries using administrative data.

PubMed

Korst, Lisa M; Fridman, Moshe; Lu, Michael C; Fleege, Laura; Mitchell, Connie; Gregory, Kimberly D

2013-01-01

We propose a methodology for identifying and analysing 'elective' preterm births (PTBs) using administrative data, and apply this methodology to California data with the objective of providing a framework to further explore the potential rationales for early delivery. Using the California linked birth cohorts for 1999, 2002 and 2005, singleton PTBs were identified using birth certificate gestational age ≥ 24 and <37 weeks. Through a hierarchical scheme that first removed cases with standard or 'hard' indications for early delivery (e.g. severe preeclampsia, placenta previa), cases of 'elective' PTB were identified with coding for medical intervention, that is, elective caesarean or labour induction. We calculated rates of elective PTB, with subanalyses of early (<34 weeks of gestational age) and late PTB (34 to <37 weeks of gestational age) using hierarchical logistic regression models. Of 1 387 565 singleton deliveries, 99 614 (7.2%) were preterm. Elective PTBs increased 27.7% over the 6-year study period, with nearly all cases confined to the late PTB stratum; elective late PTB rates rose from 10.5% to 13.5% of all late PTBs (P < 0.0001). Indications for delivery in this Elective Group ('soft indications') included prior pelvic floor repair, mental health conditions, fetal anomalies, malpresentation and oligohydramnios. Six per cent of patients with a late PTB had a medical intervention with no hard or soft indication for delivery. Using administrative data, we developed a method for identifying and trending the proportion of PTBs that is 'elective'. This method can be used to explore and monitor potential strategies for the prevention of elective PTB. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Image resolution enhancement via image restoration using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shuangteng; Lu, Yihong

2011-04-01

Image super-resolution aims to obtain a high-quality image at a resolution that is higher than that of the original coarse one. This paper presents a new neural network-based method for image super-resolution. In this technique, the super-resolution is considered as an inverse problem. An observation model that closely follows the physical image acquisition process is established to solve the problem. Based on this model, a cost function is created and minimized by a Hopfield neural network to produce high-resolution images from the corresponding low-resolution ones. Not like some other single frame super-resolution techniques, this technique takes into consideration point spread function blurring as well as additive noise and therefore generates high-resolution images with more preserved or restored image details. Experimental results demonstrate that the high-resolution images obtained by this technique have a very high quality in terms of PSNR and visually look more pleasant.

Risk models for mortality following elective open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair: a single institution experience.

PubMed

Choke, E; Lee, K; McCarthy, M; Nasim, A; Naylor, A R; Bown, M; Sayers, R

2012-12-01

To develop and validate an "in house" risk model for predicting perioperative mortality following elective AAA repair and to compare this with other models. Multivariate logistics regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for perioperative-day mortality from one tertiary institution's prospectively maintained database. Consecutive elective open (564) and endovascular (589) AAA repairs (2000-2010) were split randomly into development (810) and validation (343) data sets. The resultant model was compared to Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Modified Customised Probability Index (m-CPI), CPI, the Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) model and the Medicare model. Variables associated with perioperative mortality included: increasing age (P = 0.034), myocardial infarct within last 10 years (P = 0.0008), raised serum creatinine (P = 0.005) and open surgery (P = 0.0001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted probability of 30-day mortality in development and validation data sets were 0.79 and 0.82 respectively. AUCs for GAS, m-CPI and CPI were poor (0.63, 0.58 and 0.58 respectively), whilst VGNW and Medicare model were fair (0.73 and 0.79 respectively). In this study, an "in-house" developed and validated risk model has the most accurate discriminative value in predicting perioperative mortality after elective AAA repair. For purposes of comparative audit with case mix adjustments, national models such as the VGNW or Medicare models should be used. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Residual Angina After Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Grodzinsky, Anna; Kosiborod, Mikhail; Tang, Fengming; Jones, Philip G; McGuire, Darren K; Spertus, John A; Beltrame, John F; Jang, Jae-Sik; Goyal, Abhinav; Butala, Neel M; Yeh, Robert W; Arnold, Suzanne V

2017-09-01

Previous studies suggest that among patients with stable coronary artery disease, patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have less angina and more silent ischemia when compared with those without DM. However, the burden of angina in diabetic versus nondiabetic patients after elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has not been recently examined. In a 10-site US PCI registry, we assessed angina before and at 1, 6, and 12 months after elective PCI with the Seattle Angina Questionnaire angina frequency score (range, 0-100, higher=better). We also examined the rates of antianginal medication prescriptions at discharge. A multivariable, repeated-measures Poisson model was used to examine the independent association of DM with angina over the year after treatment. Among 1080 elective PCI patients (mean age, 65 years; 74.7% men), 34.0% had DM. At baseline and at each follow-up, patients with DM had similar angina prevalence and severity as those without DM. Patients with DM were more commonly prescribed calcium channel blockers and long-acting nitrates at discharge (DM versus not: 27.9% versus 20.9% [ P =0.01] and 32.8% versus 25.5% [ P =0.01], respectively), whereas β-blockers and ranolazine were prescribed at similar rates. In the multivariable, repeated-measures model, the risk of angina was similar over the year after PCI in patients with versus without DM (relative risk, 1.04; range, 0.80-1.36). Patients with stable coronary artery disease and DM exhibit a burden of angina that is at least as high as those without DM despite more antianginal prescriptions at discharge. These findings contradict the conventional teachings that patients with DM experience less angina because of silent ischemia. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The influence of spatially and temporally high-resolution wind forcing on the power input to near-inertial waves in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimac, Antonija; von Storch, Jin-Song; Eden, Carsten

2013-04-01

The estimated power required to sustain global general circulation in the ocean is about 2 TW. This power is supplied with wind stress and tides. Energy spectrum shows pronounced maxima at near-inertial frequency. Near-inertial waves excited by high-frequency winds represent an important source for deep ocean mixing since they can propagate into the deep ocean and dissipate far away from the generation sites. The energy input by winds to near-inertial waves has been studied mostly using slab ocean models and wind stress forcing with coarse temporal resolution (e.g. 6-hourly). Slab ocean models lack the ability to reproduce fundamental aspects of kinetic energy balance and systematically overestimate the wind work. Also, slab ocean models do not account the energy used for the mixed layer deepening or the energy radiating downward into the deep ocean. Coarse temporal resolution of the wind forcing strongly underestimates the near-inertial energy. To overcome this difficulty we use an eddy permitting ocean model with high-frequency wind forcing. We establish the following model setup: We use the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) on a tripolar grid with 45 km horizontal resolution and 40 vertical levels. We run the model with wind forcings that vary in horizontal and temporal resolution. We use high-resolution (1-hourly with 35 km horizontal resolution) and low-resolution winds (6-hourly with 250 km horizontal resolution). We address the following questions: Is the kinetic energy of near-inertial waves enhanced when high-resolution wind forcings are used? If so, is this due to higher level of overall wind variability or higher spatial or temporal resolution of wind forcing? How large is the power of near-inertial waves generated by winds? Our results show that near-inertial waves are enhanced and the near-inertial kinetic energy is two times higher (in the storm track regions 3.5 times higher) when high-resolution winds are used. Filtering high-resolution winds in space and time, the near-inertial kinetic energy reduces. The reduction is faster when a temporal filter is used suggesting that the high-frequency wind forcing is more efficient in generating near-inertial wave energy than the small-scale wind forcing. Using low-resolution wind forcing the wind generated power to near-inertial waves is 0.55 TW. When we use high-resolution wind forcing the result is 1.6 TW meaning that the result increases by 300%.

A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the National Labor Relations Board relating to representation election procedures.

THOMAS, 112th Congress

Sen. Enzi, Michael B. [R-WY

2012-02-16

Senate - 04/24/2012 Motion to proceed to consideration of measure rejected in Senate by Yea-Nay Vote. 45 - 54. Record Vote Number: 68. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

Application and evaluation of high-resolution WRF-CMAQ with simple urban parameterization.

EPA Science Inventory

The 2-way coupled WRF-CMAQ meteorology and air quality modeling system is evaluated for high-resolution applications by comparing to a regional air quality field study (Discover-AQ). The model was modified to better account for the effects of urban environments. High-resolution...

Application and evaluation of high-resolution WRF-CMAQ with simple urban parameterization

EPA Science Inventory

The 2-way coupled WRF-CMAQ meteorology and air quality modeling system is evaluated for high-resolution applications by comparing to a regional air quality field study (Discover-AQ). The model was modified to better account for the effects of urban environments. High-resolution...

Development of the ultrasonography learning model for undergraduate medical students: A case study of the Faculty of Medicine, Burapha University.

PubMed

Limchareon, Sornsupha; Asawaworarit, Nattawat; Klinwichit, Wethaka; Dinchuthai, Pakaphun

2016-08-01

Ultrasound technology is generally considered to be reliable and widely used by physicians today. Therefore, given the efficacy and popularity of the technology, the need for quality ultrasound education is evident. Ultrasound training for undergraduate medical students has been increasingly incorporated into school curriculums, but the teaching methods can vary significantly among medical schools. Among many different choices, one effective teaching model was proposed which added hands-on ultrasound experience on live patients that was supervised by radiologists in the last clinical year. A 2-week radiology elective course was offered for 6(th)-year medical students at Burapha University Hospital, Chonburi, Thailand in the academic year 2014. Fourteen medical students participated in the elective course. Additionally, students who chose radiology as their elective were provided an ultrasound experience on live patients in real-life clinical settings. All 6(th)-year medical students then completed a 25-ultrasound image quiz, and completed a questionnaire at the end of the academic year. The ultrasound test scores were compared between the elective and nonelective students. The students' background characteristics were determined by a grade point average and the ultrasound experience was determined by the number of scans. These were collected, and analyzed to establish their relationship with the ultrasound test scores. The students' opinions were also surveyed. Fourteen medical students participated in the elective course. The ultrasound test scores in the elective group were significantly higher than those in the nonelective group (p=0.013). The students' background characteristics and ultrasound experience had no significant relationship with the ultrasound test scores. By adding hands-on ultrasound experience using live patients proctored by radiologists for final year medical students, in the space of 2 weeks, an effective ultrasound learning model for undergraduate medical students can be provided. This model should be considered in the curricular design. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

The Effect of the Involvement within Career Academies by Elective Participation of Eleventh and Twelfth Grade High School Students during the Implementation Year

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Nancy A.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of elective participation in one of three implementation year Career Academies, Education, Entrepreneurship, or Finance, on upper-class high school academic grades, Grade Point Average, and school academy participation measures. Significance of the junior and senior year of high school, the…

Oocyte vitrification for elective fertility preservation: the past, present, and future.

PubMed

Gunnala, Vinay; Schattman, Glenn

2017-02-01

Oocyte cryopreservation is no longer experimental and one of its rapidly growing indications is elective fertility preservation. Currently there is no sufficient evidence to support its practice and therefore its place in IVF remains uncertain. Vitrification has superior post-thaw survival and fertilization outcomes compared with oocytes that were frozen with the slow-freeze technique. Oocyte vitrification produces similar IVF outcomes compared with fresh oocytes and is not associated with further obstetrical or perinatal morbidity. Undergoing elective oocyte cryopreservation between ages 35 and 37 will optimize live birth rates as well as cost effectiveness from mathematical models. In women who delay child bearing, elective oocyte cryopreservation in the mid 30s may be beneficial in terms of live birth rates and cost effectiveness. Prospective studies of women who have undergone oocyte cryopreservation and are now attempting conception are needed before official recommendations can be made regarding elective egg freezing.

Con: bulbomembranous anastomotic urethroplasty for pelvic fracture urethral injuries

PubMed Central

Tausch, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

Current literature remains controversial regarding whether to treat patients sustaining pelvic fracture urethral injuries (PFUIs) with primary endoscopic realignment (PER) versus suprapubic tube (SPT) placement alone with elective bulbomembranous anastomotic urethroplasty (BMAU). Success rates for PER following PFUI are wide-ranging, depending on various authors’ definitions of what defines a successful outcome. At our institution, for SPT/BMAU patients, the mean time to definitive resolution of stenosis was dramatically shorter compared to PER cases. The vast majority of PER patients required multiple endoscopic urethral interventions and/or experienced various other adverse events which were rarely noted among the SPT/BMAU group. While PER does occasionally result in urethral patency without the need for further intervention, the risk of delay in definitive treatment and potential for adverse events has led to a preference for SPT and elective BMAU at our institution. PMID:26816814

A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

PubMed Central

Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

2017-01-01

Background The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. Conclusions According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction. PMID:28060903

When What You See Isn’t What You Get: How Viewshed Analysis is Impacted by Digital Surface Model (DSM) Resolution

EPA Science Inventory

A key factor for improving models of ecosystem benefits is the availability of high quality spatial data. High resolution LIDAR data are now commonly available and can be used to produce more accurate model outputs. However, increased resolution leads to higher computer resource...

High-resolution observations of the near-surface wind field over an isolated mountain and in a steep river canyon

Treesearch

B. W. Butler; N. S. Wagenbrenner; J. M. Forthofer; B. K. Lamb; K. S. Shannon; D. Finn; R. M. Eckman; K. Clawson; L. Bradshaw; P. Sopko; S. Beard; D. Jimenez; C. Wold; M. Vosburgh

2015-01-01

A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating wind flow at relatively fine spatial resolutions (e.g., 100 m); however, there are very limited observational data available for evaluating these high-resolution models. This study presents high-resolution surface wind data sets collected from an isolated mountain and a steep river canyon. The...

Statistical Examination of the Resolution of a Block-Scale Urban Drainage Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, A.; Montalto, F. A.; Digiovanni, K. A.

2009-12-01

Stormwater drainage models are utilized by cities in order to plan retention systems to prevent combined sewage overflows and design for development. These models aggregate subcatchments and ignore small pipelines providing a coarse representation of a sewage network. This study evaluates the importance of resolution by comparing two models developed on a neighborhood scale for predicting the total quantity and peak flow of runoff to observed runoff measured at the site. The low and high resolution models were designed for a 2.6 ha block in Bronx, NYC in EPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) using a single catchment and separate subcatchments based on surface cover, respectively. The surface covers represented included sidewalks, street, buildings, and backyards. Characteristics for physical surfaces and the infrastructure in the high resolution mode were determined from site visits, sewer pipe maps, aerial photographs, and GIS data-sets provided by the NYC Department of City Planning. Since the low resolution model was depicted at a coarser scale, generalizations were assumed about the overall average characteristics of the catchment. Rainfall and runoff data were monitored over a four month period during the summer rainy season. A total of 53 rain fall events were recorded but only 29 storms produced significant amount of runoffs to be evaluated in the simulations. To determine which model was more accurate at predicting the observed runoff, three characteristics for each storm were compared: peak runoff, total runoff, and time to peak. Two statistical tests were used to determine the significance of the results: the percent difference for each storm and the overall Chi-squared Goodness of Fit distribution for both the low and high resolution model. These tests will evaluate if there is a statistical difference depending on the resolution of scale of the stormwater model. The scale of representation is being evaluated because it could have a profound impact on how low-impact development strategies are assessed. Rerouting flows to delay the time of entry into the combined sewage is the primary goal of stormwater source controls which may be better differentiated in a high resolution as opposed to low resolution model. The preliminary hypothesis is that the low resolution model simplifies watershed by defining attributes uniformly across the watershed. In the high resolution model, the physical flow can be more accurate depicted by connected the various subcatchments. For example, the runoff from buildings can directly be routed to the backyard. The main drawback to the high resolution model is the risk of adding uncertainty due to the number of parameters.

Fusing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Imagery with High Resolution Hydrologic Modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, E. R.; Pierini, N.; Schreiner-McGraw, A.; Anderson, C.; Saripalli, S.; Rango, A.

2013-12-01

After decades of development and applications, high resolution hydrologic models are now common tools in research and increasingly used in practice. More recently, high resolution imagery from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that provide information on land surface properties have become available for civilian applications. Fusing the two approaches promises to significantly advance the state-of-the-art in terms of hydrologic modeling capabilities. This combination will also challenge assumptions on model processes, parameterizations and scale as land surface characteristics (~0.1 to 1 m) may now surpass traditional model resolutions (~10 to 100 m). Ultimately, predictions from high resolution hydrologic models need to be consistent with the observational data that can be collected from UAVs. This talk will describe our efforts to develop, utilize and test the impact of UAV-derived topographic and vegetation fields on the simulation of two small watersheds in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts at the Santa Rita Experimental Range (Green Valley, AZ) and the Jornada Experimental Range (Las Cruces, NM). High resolution digital terrain models, image orthomosaics and vegetation species classification were obtained from a fixed wing airplane and a rotary wing helicopter, and compared to coarser analyses and products, including Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). We focus the discussion on the relative improvements achieved with UAV-derived fields in terms of terrain-hydrologic-vegetation analyses and summer season simulations using the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) model. Model simulations are evaluated at each site with respect to a high-resolution sensor network consisting of six rain gauges, forty soil moisture and temperature profiles, four channel runoff flumes, a cosmic-ray soil moisture sensor and an eddy covariance tower over multiple summer periods. We also discuss prospects for the fusion of high resolution models with novel observations from UAVs, including synthetic aperture radar and multispectral imagery.

The challenges associated with applying global models in heterogeneous landscapes: A case study using MOD17 GPP estimates in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimball, H.; Selmants, P. C.; Running, S. W.; Moreno, A.; Giardina, C. P.

2016-12-01

In this study we evaluate the influence of spatial data product accuracy and resolution on the application of global models for smaller scale heterogeneous landscapes. In particular, we assess the influence of locally specific land cover and high-resolution climate data products on estimates of Gross Primary Production (GPP) for the Hawaiian Islands using the MOD17 model. The MOD17 GPP algorithm uses a measure of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observation System. This direct measurement is combined with global land cover (500-m resolution) and climate models ( 1/2-degree resolution) to estimate GPP. We first compared the alignment between the global land cover model used in MOD17 with a Hawaii specific land cover data product. We found that there was a 51.6% overall agreement between the two land cover products. We then compared four MOD17 GPP models: A global model that used the global land cover and low-resolution global climate data products, a model produced using the Hawaii specific land cover and low-resolution global climate data products, a model with global land cover and high-resolution climate data products, and finally, a model using both Hawaii specific land cover and high-resolution climate data products. We found that including either the Hawaii specific land cover or the high-resolution Hawaii climate data products with MOD17 reduced overall estimates of GPP by 8%. When both were used, GPP estimates were reduced by 16%. The reduction associated with land cover is explained by a reduction of the total area designated as evergreen broad leaf forest and an increase in the area designated as barren or sparsely vegetated in the Hawaii land cover product as compared to the global product. The climate based reduction is explained primarily by the spatial resolution and distribution of solar radiation in the Hawaiian Islands. This study highlights the importance of accuracy and resolution when applying global models to highly variable landscapes and provides an estimate of the influence of land cover and climate data products on estimates of GPP using MOD17.

A Computer Simulation of Organizational Decision-Making.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

future research into one class of manpower models. In choosing the voting scen- ario I was more interested in the long-term process of political ... socialization , rather than the prediction of the outcome of a particular election. Successive elections are like successive learning trials. The analysis did

12 CFR 552.5 - Bylaws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... submitted to the OTS for approval if it would: (A) Render more difficult or discourage a merger, tender...) Corporate governance procedures. A Federal stock association may elect to follow the corporate governance... Corporation law; or The Model Business Corporation Act, provided that such procedures may be elected to the...

12 CFR 552.5 - Bylaws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... submitted to the OTS for approval if it would: (A) Render more difficult or discourage a merger, tender...) Corporate governance procedures. A Federal stock association may elect to follow the corporate governance... Corporation law; or The Model Business Corporation Act, provided that such procedures may be elected to the...

Family Life and Human Development. Senior High School Semester Elective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery County Public Schools, Rockville, MD.

This document is a curriculum guide for a family life and human development course to be used as a senior high school elective. The purpose of the course is to help students gain a greater understanding of human sexuality and to obtain information needed for intelligent, responsible decision making. Thirteen units included in the course are…

Impact of surgeon volume and specialization on short-term outcomes in colorectal cancer surgery.

PubMed

Borowski, D W; Kelly, S B; Bradburn, D M; Wilson, R G; Gunn, A; Ratcliffe, A A

2007-07-01

Several studies have shown a relationship between surgeon volume and outcomes in colorectal cancer surgery. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of surgeon volume and specialization on primary tumour resection rate, restoration of bowel continuity following rectal cancer resection, anastomotic leakage and perioperative mortality. The Northern Region Colorectal Cancer Audit Group conducts a population-based audit of patients with colorectal cancer managed by surgeons. This study examined 8219 patients treated between 1998 and 2002. Outcomes were modelled using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Tumour resection was performed in 6949 (93.8 per cent) of 7411 patients. High-volume surgeons with an annual caseload of at least 18.5 (odds ratio (OR) 1.53 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.10 to 2.12); P = 0.012) and colorectal specialists (OR 1.42 (95 per cent c.i. 1.06 to 1.90); P = 0.018) were more likely to perform elective sphincter-saving rectal surgery. In elective surgery, the risk of perioperative death was lower for high-volume surgeons (OR 0.58 (95 per cent c.i. 0.44 to 0.76); P < 0.001), but this was not the case in emergency surgery. High-volume surgeons had lower perioperative mortality rates for elective surgery, and were more likely to use restorative rectal procedures. Copyright (c) 2007 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Texas Medicaid Payment Reform: Fewer Early Elective Deliveries And Increased Gestational Age And Birthweight.

PubMed

Dahlen, Heather M; McCullough, J Mac; Fertig, Angela R; Dowd, Bryan E; Riley, William J

2017-03-01

Infants born at full term have better health outcomes. However, one in ten babies in the United States are born via a medically unnecessary early elective delivery: induction of labor, a cesarean section, or both before thirty-nine weeks gestation. In 2011 the Texas Medicaid program sought to reduce the rate of early elective deliveries by denying payment to providers for the procedure. We examined the impact of this policy on clinical care practice and perinatal outcomes by comparing the changes in Texas relative to comparison states. We found that early elective delivery rates fell by as much as 14 percent in Texas after this payment policy change, which led to gains of almost five days in gestational age and six ounces in birthweight among births affected by the policy. The impact on early elective delivery was larger in magnitude for minority patients. Other states may look to this Medicaid payment reform as a model for reducing early elective deliveries and disparities in infant health. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

High-resolution spatial modeling of daily weather elements for a catchment in the Oregon Cascade Mountains, United States

Treesearch

Christopher Daly; Jonathan W. Smith; Joseph I. Smith; Robert B. McKane

2007-01-01

High-quality daily meteorological data at high spatial resolution are essential for a variety of hydrologic and ecological modeling applications that support environmental risk assessments and decisionmaking. This paper describes the development. application. and assessment of methods to construct daily high resolution (~50-m cell size) meteorological grids for the...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Fuyu; Collins, William D.; Wehner, Michael F.

High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the tropical storm simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, andmore » mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariant.« less

X-ray structure determination at low resolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunger, Axel T., E-mail: brunger@stanford.edu; Department of Molecular and Cellular Physiology, Stanford University; Department of Neurology and Neurological Sciences, Stanford University

2009-02-01

Refinement is meaningful even at 4 Å or lower, but with present methodologies it should start from high-resolution crystal structures whenever possible. As an example of structure determination in the 3.5–4.5 Å resolution range, crystal structures of the ATPase p97/VCP, consisting of an N-terminal domain followed by a tandem pair of ATPase domains (D1 and D2), are discussed. The structures were originally solved by molecular replacement with the high-resolution structure of the N-D1 fragment of p97/VCP, whereas the D2 domain was manually built using its homology to the D1 domain as a guide. The structure of the D2 domain alonemore » was subsequently solved at 3 Å resolution. The refined model of D2 and the high-resolution structure of the N-D1 fragment were then used as starting models for re-refinement against the low-resolution diffraction data for full-length p97. The re-refined full-length models showed significant improvement in both secondary structure and R values. The free R values dropped by as much as 5% compared with the original structure refinements, indicating that refinement is meaningful at low resolution and that there is information in the diffraction data even at ∼4 Å resolution that objectively assesses the quality of the model. It is concluded that de novo model building is problematic at low resolution and refinement should start from high-resolution crystal structures whenever possible.« less

Fear of childbirth and elective caesarean section: a population-based study.

PubMed

Størksen, Hege Therese; Garthus-Niegel, Susan; Adams, Samantha S; Vangen, Siri; Eberhard-Gran, Malin

2015-09-17

This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate the demographic and psychosocial characteristics associated with fear of childbirth and the relative importance of such fear as a predictor of elective caesarean section. A sample of 1789 women from the Akershus Birth Cohort in Norway provided data collected by three self-administered questionnaires at 17 and 32 weeks of pregnancy and 8 weeks postpartum. Information about the participants' childbirths was obtained from the hospital records. Eight percent of the women reported fear of delivery, defined as a score of ≥85 on the Wijma Delivery Expectancy Questionnaire. Using multivariable logistic regression models, a previous negative overall birth experience exerted the strongest impact on fear of childbirth, followed by impaired mental health and poor social support. Fear of childbirth was strongly associated with a preference for elective caesarean section (aOR 4.6, 95% CI 2.9-7.3) whereas the association of fear with performance of caesarean delivery was weaker (aOR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.9). The vast majority (87%) of women with fear of childbirth did not, however, receive a caesarean section. By contrast, a previous negative overall birth experience was highly predictive of elective caesarean section (aOR 8.1, 95% CI 3.9-16.7) and few women without such experiences did request caesarean section. Results suggest that women with fear of childbirth may have identifiable vulnerability characteristics, such as poor mental health and poor social support. Results also emphasize the need to focus on the subjective experience of the birth to prevent fear of childbirth and elective caesarean sections on maternal request. Regarding the relationship with social support, causality has to be interpreted cautiously, as social support was measured at 8 weeks postpartum only.

Segmental liver ischemia/infarction after elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation: clinical outcomes in 10 patients.

PubMed

Lopera, Jorge E; Katabathina, Venkata; Bosworth, Brian; Garg, Deepak; Kroma, Ghazwan; Garza-Berlanga, Andres; Suri, Rajeev; Wholey, Michael

2015-06-01

To determine the clinical significance and potential mechanisms of segmental liver ischemia and infarction following elective creation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). A retrospective review of 374 elective TIPS creations between March 2006 and September 2014 was performed, yielding 77 contrast-enhanced scans for review. Patients with imaging evidence of segmental perfusion defects were identified. Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores, liver volume, and percentage of liver ischemia/infarct were calculated. Clinical outcomes after TIPS creation were reviewed. Ten patients showed segmental liver ischemia/infarction on contrast-enhanced imaging after elective TIPS creation. Associated imaging findings included thrombosis of the posterior division (n = 7) and anterior division (n = 3) of the right portal vein (PV). The right hepatic vein was thrombosed in 5 patients, as was the middle hepatic vein in 3 and the left hepatic vein in 1. One patient had acute thrombosis of the shunt and main PV. Three patients developed acute liver failure: 2 died within 30 days and 1 required emergent liver transplantation. One patient died of acute renal failure 20 days after TIPS creation. A large infarct in a transplant recipient resulted in biloma formation. Five patients survived without additional interventions with follow-up times ranging from 3 months to 5 years. Segmental perfusion defects are not an uncommon imaging finding after elective TIPS creation. Segmental ischemia was associated with thrombosis of major branches of the PVs and often of the hepatic veins. Clinical outcomes varied significantly, from transient problems to acute liver failure with high mortality rates. Copyright © 2015 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radiologic-pathologic Correlation-An Advanced Fourth-year Elective: How We Do It.

PubMed

Hartman, Matthew; Silverman, Jan; Spruill, Laura; Hill, Jeanne

2016-07-01

Traditionally, the radiology elective has been designed to teach medical students the fundamentals of radiologic interpretation. When questioned, many students state that they want to take a radiology elective so they can "interpret images." For the students on radiology, rotation/elective education was often passive, consisting of didactic conferences and observational shadowing of radiologists as they interpreted images. Students had only a superficial appreciation of how radiologists interacted with clinical services, multidisciplinary teams, and pathology. There was very little emphasis on imaging appropriateness or the most efficient and effective imaging for various clinical problems. With the expansion of numerous imaging modalities and the emphasis on patient-centered care, including imaging safety and dose reduction, it is important to change the focus of radiology education from interpretation to the optimal integration of imaging into clinical medicine. Radiology-pathology (rad path) electives were created at Allegheny General Hospital and the Medical University of South Carolina as a new option to provide a high-quality advanced elective for fourth-year medical students. These electives enable students to correlate radiologic images with gross and microscopic pathology specimens, thus increasing their knowledge and understanding of both. The rad path elective combines aspects of surgery, radiology, and pathology and requires students to be active learners. The implementation of this elective is an exciting work in progress that has been evolving over the past 2 and 4 years at Medical University of South Carolina and Allegheny General Hospital, respectively. We will discuss the historical basis for the elective, the advantages and challenges of having such an integrated course, and some different strategies for creating a rad path elective. Copyright © 2016 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Approach to inguinal hernia in high-risk geriatric patients: Should it be elective or emergent?

PubMed

Işıl, Rıza Gürhan; Yazıcı, Pınar; Demir, Uygar; Kaya, Cemal; Bostancı, Özgür; İdiz, Ufuk Oğuz; Işıl, Canan Tülay; Demircioğlu, Mahmut Kaan; Mihmanlı, Mehmet

2017-03-01

Elderly patients are more prone to have inguinal hernia due to weakened abdominal musculature. However, surgical repair of inguinal hernia (SRIH) may not be performed or may be delayed due to greater risk in presence of comorbidities. Present study is investigation of outcome of elective and emergency SRIH in geriatric patients. Records of total of 384 high-risk (American Society of Anesthesiology classification III-IV) patients aged >65 years who underwent SRIH between January 2010 and December 2014 were reviewed. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to procedure type: elective (Group EL) or emergency (Group EM). Demographic features and surgical and postoperative period data of 2 groups were recorded and compared. Demographic data were similar, but number of ASA IV patients was greater in Group EM. Frequency of intestinal resection was significantly greater in emergency surgery group (1% vs 21%; p<0.01). Length of hospital stay (1.3 days vs 7.9 days; p<0.01) and intensive care unit stay (0.17 days vs 4.04 days; p<0.01) were also greater in Group EM. Morbidity (1% vs 24%; p<0.01) and mortality (0.3% vs 11%; p<0.01) were also significantly higher in Group EM compared to elective SRIH group. Emergency inguinal hernia surgery is associated with significantly higher morbidity and mortality compared with elective SRIH in high-risk geriatric patients. Elective hernia repair in these patients should be considered to reduce risk of need for intestinal resection as well as length of hospital stay.

A novel intra-operative, high-resolution atrial mapping approach.

PubMed

Yaksh, Ameeta; van der Does, Lisette J M E; Kik, Charles; Knops, Paul; Oei, Frans B S; van de Woestijne, Pieter C; Bekkers, Jos A; Bogers, Ad J J C; Allessie, Maurits A; de Groot, Natasja M S

2015-12-01

A new technique is demonstrated for extensive high-resolution intra-operative atrial mapping that will facilitate the localization of atrial fibrillation (AF) sources and identification of the substrate perpetuating AF. Prior to the start of extra-corporal circulation, a 8 × 24-electrode array (2-mm inter-electrode distance) is placed subsequently on all the right and left epicardial atrial sites, including Bachmann's bundle, for recording of unipolar electrograms during sinus rhythm and (induced) AF. AF is induced by high-frequency pacing at the right atrial free wall. A pacemaker wire stitched to the right atrium serves as a reference signal. The indifferent pole is connected to a steal wire fixed to subcutaneous tissue. Electrograms are recorded by a computerized mapping system and, after amplification (gain 1000), filtering (bandwidth 0.5-400 Hz), sampling (1 kHz) and analogue to digital conversion (16 bits), automatically stored on hard disk. During the mapping procedure, real-time visualization secures electrogram quality. Analysis will be performed offline. This technique was performed in 168 patients of 18 years and older, with coronary and/or structural heart disease, with or without AF, electively scheduled for cardiac surgery and a ventricular ejection fraction above 40 %. The mean duration of the entire mapping procedure including preparation time was 9 ± 2 min. Complications related to the mapping procedure during or after cardiac surgery were not observed. We introduce the first epicardial atrial mapping approach with a high resolution of ≥1728 recording sites which can be performed in a procedure time of only 9±2 mins. This mapping technique can potentially identify areas responsible for initiation and persistence of AF and hopefully can individualize both diagnosis and therapy of AF.

Experiments in Political Socialization: Kids Voting USA as a Model for Civic Education Reform. CIRCLE Working Paper 49

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDevitt, Michael; Kiousis, Spiro

2006-01-01

This report describes how an innovative curriculum promoted the civic development of high school students along with parents by stimulating news media attention and discussion in families. Evidence is based on a three-year evaluation of Kids Voting USA, an interactive, election-based curriculum. Political communication in the home increased the…

OpenMP parallelization of a gridded SWAT (SWATG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Hou, Jinliang; Cao, Yongpan; Gu, Juan; Huang, Chunlin

2017-12-01

Large-scale, long-term and high spatial resolution simulation is a common issue in environmental modeling. A Gridded Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATG) that integrates grid modeling scheme with different spatial representations also presents such problems. The time-consuming problem affects applications of very high resolution large-scale watershed modeling. The OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) parallel application interface is integrated with SWATG (called SWATGP) to accelerate grid modeling based on the HRU level. Such parallel implementation takes better advantage of the computational power of a shared memory computer system. We conducted two experiments at multiple temporal and spatial scales of hydrological modeling using SWATG and SWATGP on a high-end server. At 500-m resolution, SWATGP was found to be up to nine times faster than SWATG in modeling over a roughly 2000 km2 watershed with 1 CPU and a 15 thread configuration. The study results demonstrate that parallel models save considerable time relative to traditional sequential simulation runs. Parallel computations of environmental models are beneficial for model applications, especially at large spatial and temporal scales and at high resolutions. The proposed SWATGP model is thus a promising tool for large-scale and high-resolution water resources research and management in addition to offering data fusion and model coupling ability.

Military Review. Volume 85, Number 1, January-February 2008

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

economic.4 Resolution of the so-called “troubles” there has, for the most part, come by way of political agreements encour- aged by economic...fostering will happen when they protect and encour- age local institutions and people who support the rule of law. Their involvement will perhaps be...could encour- age soldiers to talk with the local population, explaining the election process and answering questions, to constructively

A joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to abolish the electoral college and to provide for the direct popular election of the President and Vice President of the United States.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Nelson, Bill [D-FL

2009-01-08

Senate - 01/08/2009 Read twice and referred to the Committee on the Judiciary. (text of measure as introduced: CR S234-235) (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

A resolution recognizing the 60th Anniversary of the Korean War Armistice and the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1953, and congratulating Park Geun-Hye on her election to the Presidency of the Republic of Korea.

THOMAS, 113th Congress

Sen. Cardin, Benjamin L. [D-MD

2013-05-09

Senate - 05/09/2013 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jin-Song

2016-11-01

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, "what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?", but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

An Overview of Numerical Weather Prediction on Various Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, J.-W.

2009-04-01

The increasing public need for detailed weather forecasts, along with the advances in computer technology, has motivated many research institutes and national weather forecasting centers to develop and run global as well as regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at high resolutions (i.e., with horizontal resolutions of ~10 km or higher for global models and 1 km or higher for regional models, and with ~60 vertical levels or higher). The need for running NWP models at high horizontal and vertical resolutions requires the implementation of non-hydrostatic dynamic core with a choice of horizontal grid configurations and vertical coordinates that are appropriate for high resolutions. Development of advanced numerics will also be needed for high resolution global and regional models, in particular, when the models are applied to transport problems and air quality applications. In addition to the challenges in numerics, the NWP community is also facing the challenges of developing physics parameterizations that are well suited for high-resolution NWP models. For example, when NWP models are run at resolutions of ~5 km or higher, the use of much more detailed microphysics parameterizations than those currently used in NWP model will become important. Another example is that regional NWP models at ~1 km or higher only partially resolve convective energy containing eddies in the lower troposphere. Parameterizations to account for the subgrid diffusion associated with unresolved turbulence still need to be developed. Further, physically sound parameterizations for air-sea interaction will be a critical component for tropical NWP models, particularly for hurricane predictions models. In this review presentation, the above issues will be elaborated on and the approaches to address them will be discussed.

Uncertainty of global summer precipitation in the CMIP5 models: a comparison between high-resolution and low-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Danqing; Yan, Peiwen; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yaocun; Kuang, Xueyuan; Cheng, Jing

2018-04-01

The uncertainty of global summer precipitation simulated by the 23 CMIP5 CGCMs and the possible impacts of model resolutions are investigated in this study. Large uncertainties exist over the tropical and subtropical regions, which can be mainly attributed to convective precipitation simulation. High-resolution models (HRMs) and low-resolution models (LRMs) are further investigated to demonstrate their different contributions to the uncertainties of the ensemble mean. It shows that the high-resolution model ensemble means (HMME) and low-resolution model ensemble mean (LMME) mitigate the biases between the MME and observation over most continents and oceans, respectively. The HMME simulates more precipitation than the LMME over most oceans, but less precipitation over some continents. The dominant precipitation category in the HRMs (LRMs) is the heavy precipitation (moderate precipitation) over the tropic regions. The combinations of convective and stratiform precipitation are also quite different: the HMME has much higher ratio of stratiform precipitation while the LMME has more convective precipitation. Finally, differences in precipitation between the HMME and LMME can be traced to their differences in the SST simulations via the local and remote air-sea interaction.

Remote sensing in support of high-resolution terrestrial carbon monitoring and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Zhao, M.; Dubayah, R.; Huang, C.; Swatantran, A.; ONeil-Dunne, J.; Johnson, K. D.; Birdsey, R.; Fisk, J.; Flanagan, S.; Sahajpal, R.; Huang, W.; Tang, H.; Armstrong, A. H.

2014-12-01

As part of its Phase 1 Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) activities, NASA initiated a Local-Scale Biomass Pilot study. The goals of the pilot study were to develop protocols for fusing high-resolution remotely sensed observations with field data, provide accurate validation test areas for the continental-scale biomass product, and demonstrate efficacy for prognostic terrestrial ecosystem modeling. In Phase 2, this effort was expanded to the state scale. Here, we present results of this activity focusing on the use of remote sensing in high-resolution ecosystem modeling. The Ecosystem Demography (ED) model was implemented at 90 m spatial resolution for the entire state of Maryland. We rasterized soil depth and soil texture data from SSURGO. For hourly meteorological data, we spatially interpolated 32-km 3-hourly NARR into 1-km hourly and further corrected them at monthly level using PRISM data. NLCD data were used to mask sand, seashore, and wetland. High-resolution 1 m forest/non-forest mapping was used to define forest fraction of 90 m cells. Three alternative strategies were evaluated for initialization of forest structure using high-resolution lidar, and the model was used to calculate statewide estimates of forest biomass, carbon sequestration potential, time to reach sequestration potential, and sensitivity to future forest growth and disturbance rates, all at 90 m resolution. To our knowledge, no dynamic ecosystem model has been run at such high spatial resolution over such large areas utilizing remote sensing and validated as extensively. There are over 3 million 90 m land cells in Maryland, greater than 43 times the ~73,000 half-degree cells in a state-of-the-art global land model.

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine-scale processes. This assessment is also relevant for addressing the scale limitation of current RCMs or VRGCMs when next-generation model resolution increases to ~10km and beyond.

Ideological Homogeneity, School Leadership, and Political Intolerance in Secondary Education: A Study of Three High Schools during the 2008 Presidential Election

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journell, Wayne

2012-01-01

This study reports findings from a qualitative case study of three high schools during the 2008 presidential election. The schools appeared to promote the political ideologies of their corresponding populations, and in the two predominately ideologically homogenous schools, political intolerance often appeared to affect teachers' instruction and…

Clinical Exposure to Transgender Medicine Improves Students' Preparedness Above Levels Seen with Didactic Teaching Alone: A Key Addition to the Boston University Model for Teaching Transgender Healthcare.

PubMed

Park, Jason A; Safer, Joshua D

2018-01-01

Purpose: Transgender individuals are medically underserved in the United States and face many documented disparities in care due to providers' lack of education, training, and comfort. We have previously demonstrated that specific transgender medicine content in a medical school curriculum increases students' willingness to treat transgender patients. However, we have also identified that those same students are less comfortable with transgender care relative to care for lesbian, gay, and bisexual patients. We aimed to demonstrate that clinical exposure to care for transgender patients would help close this gap. Methods: At Boston University School of Medicine, we piloted a transgender medicine elective where students rotate on services that provide clinical care for transgender individuals. Pre- and postsurveys were administered to students who participated in the elective. Results: After completing the elective, students who reported "high" comfort increased from 45% (9/20) to 80% (16/20) ( p =0.04), and students who reported "high" knowledge regarding management of transgender patients increased from 0% (0/20) to 85% (17/20) ( p <0.001 ) . Conclusion: Although integrating evidence-based, transgender-specific content into medical curricula improves student knowledge and comfort with transgender medical care, gaps remain. Clinical exposure to transgender medicine during clinical years can contribute to closing that gap and improving access to care for transgender individuals.

Multi-resolution voxel phantom modeling: a high-resolution eye model for computational dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracappa, Peter F.; Rhodes, Ashley; Fiedler, Derek

2014-09-01

Voxel models of the human body are commonly used for simulating radiation dose with a Monte Carlo radiation transport code. Due to memory limitations, the voxel resolution of these computational phantoms is typically too large to accurately represent the dimensions of small features such as the eye. Recently reduced recommended dose limits to the lens of the eye, which is a radiosensitive tissue with a significant concern for cataract formation, has lent increased importance to understanding the dose to this tissue. A high-resolution eye model is constructed using physiological data for the dimensions of radiosensitive tissues, and combined with an existing set of whole-body models to form a multi-resolution voxel phantom, which is used with the MCNPX code to calculate radiation dose from various exposure types. This phantom provides an accurate representation of the radiation transport through the structures of the eye. Two alternate methods of including a high-resolution eye model within an existing whole-body model are developed. The accuracy and performance of each method is compared against existing computational phantoms.

Advanced very high resolution radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The advanced very high resolution radiometer development program is considered. The program covered the design, construction, and test of a breadboard model, engineering model, protoflight model, mechanical structural model, and a life test model. Special bench test and calibration equipment was also developed for use on the program.

Fragmentation of urban forms and the environmental consequences: results from a high-spatial resolution model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, U. W.; Wang, Z. S.

2008-10-01

Each city has its unique urban form. The importance of urban form on sustainable development has been recognized in recent years. Traditionally, air quality modelling in a city is in a mesoscale with grid resolution of kilometers, regardless of its urban form. This paper introduces a GIS-based air quality and noise model system developed to study the built environment of highly compact urban forms. Compared with traditional mesoscale air quality model system, the present model system has a higher spatial resolution down to individual buildings along both sides of the street. Applying the developed model system in the Macao Peninsula with highly compact urban forms, the average spatial resolution of input and output data is as high as 174 receptor points per km2. Based on this input/output dataset with a high spatial resolution, this study shows that even the highly compact urban forms can be fragmented into a very small geographic scale of less than 3 km2. This is due to the significant temporal variation of urban development. The variation of urban form in each fragment in turn affects air dispersion, traffic condition, and thus air quality and noise in a measurable scale.

Performance of European chemistry transport models as function of horizontal resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaap, M.; Cuvelier, C.; Hendriks, C.; Bessagnet, B.; Baldasano, J. M.; Colette, A.; Thunis, P.; Karam, D.; Fagerli, H.; Graff, A.; Kranenburg, R.; Nyiri, A.; Pay, M. T.; Rouïl, L.; Schulz, M.; Simpson, D.; Stern, R.; Terrenoire, E.; Wind, P.

2015-07-01

Air pollution causes adverse effects on human health as well as ecosystems and crop yield and also has an impact on climate change trough short-lived climate forcers. To design mitigation strategies for air pollution, 3D Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) have been developed to support the decision process. Increases in model resolution may provide more accurate and detailed information, but will cubically increase computational costs and pose additional challenges concerning high resolution input data. The motivation for the present study was therefore to explore the impact of using finer horizontal grid resolution for policy support applications of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model within the Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP) convention. The goal was to determine the "optimum resolution" at which additional computational efforts do not provide increased model performance using presently available input data. Five regional CTMs performed four runs for 2009 over Europe at different horizontal resolutions. The models' responses to an increase in resolution are broadly consistent for all models. The largest response was found for NO2 followed by PM10 and O3. Model resolution does not impact model performance for rural background conditions. However, increasing model resolution improves the model performance at stations in and near large conglomerations. The statistical evaluation showed that the increased resolution better reproduces the spatial gradients in pollution regimes, but does not help to improve significantly the model performance for reproducing observed temporal variability. This study clearly shows that increasing model resolution is advantageous, and that leaving a resolution of 50 km in favour of a resolution between 10 and 20 km is practical and worthwhile. As about 70% of the model response to grid resolution is determined by the difference in the spatial emission distribution, improved emission allocation procedures at high spatial and temporal resolution are a crucial factor for further model resolution improvements.

What's the Rush? Tort Laws and Elective Early-term Induction of Labor.

PubMed

Roth, Louise Marie

2016-12-01

Tort laws aim to deter risky medical practices and increase accountability for harm. This research examines their effects on deterrence of a high-risk obstetric practice in the United States: elective early-term (37-38 weeks gestation) induction of labor. Using birth certificate data from the Natality Detail Files and state-level data from publicly available sources, this study analyzes the effects of tort laws on labor induction with multilevel models (MLM) of 665,491 early-term births nested in states. Results reveal that caps on damages are associated with significantly higher odds of early-term induction and Proportionate Liability (PL) is associated with significantly lower odds compared to Joint and Several Liability (JSL). The findings suggest that clinicians are more likely to engage in practices that defy professional guidelines in tort environments with lower legal burdens. I discuss the implications of the findings for patient safety and the deterrence of high-risk practices. © American Sociological Association 2016.

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

Landslide model performance in a high resolution small-scale landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sy, V.; Schoorl, J. M.; Keesstra, S. D.; Jones, K. E.; Claessens, L.

2013-05-01

The frequency and severity of shallow landslides in New Zealand threatens life and property, both on- and off-site. The physically-based shallow landslide model LAPSUS-LS is tested for its performance in simulating shallow landslide locations induced by a high intensity rain event in a small-scale landscape. Furthermore, the effect of high resolution digital elevation models on the performance was tested. The performance of the model was optimised by calibrating different parameter values. A satisfactory result was achieved with a high resolution (1 m) DEM. Landslides, however, were generally predicted lower on the slope than mapped erosion scars. This discrepancy could be due to i) inaccuracies in the DEM or in other model input data such as soil strength properties; ii) relevant processes for this environmental context that are not included in the model; or iii) the limited validity of the infinite length assumption in the infinite slope stability model embedded in the LAPSUS-LS. The trade-off between a correct prediction of landslides versus stable cells becomes increasingly worse with coarser resolutions; and model performance decreases mainly due to altering slope characteristics. The optimal parameter combinations differ per resolution. In this environmental context the 1 m resolution topography resembles actual topography most closely and landslide locations are better distinguished from stable areas than for coarser resolutions. More gain in model performance could be achieved by adding landslide process complexities and parameter heterogeneity of the catchment.

Leadership in an Egalitarian Society

PubMed Central

von Rueden, Christopher; Gurven, Michael; Kaplan, Hillard; Stieglitz, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Leadership is instrumental to resolution of collective action dilemmas, particularly in large, heterogeneous groups. Less is known about the characteristics or effectiveness of leadership in small-scale, homogeneous, and relatively egalitarian societies, in which humans have spent most of our existence. Among Tsimane’ forager-horticulturalists of Bolivia, we (1) assess traits of elected leaders under experimental and naturalistic conditions and (2) test whether leaders impact collective action outcomes. We find that elected leaders are physically strong and have more kin and other exchange partners. Their ranks on physical dominance, kin support, and trustworthiness predict how well their groups perform, but only where group members have a history of collaborative interaction. Leaders do not take more of the spoils. We discuss why physically strong leaders can be compatible with egalitarianism, and we suggest that leaders in egalitarian societies may be more motivated by maintaining an altruistic reputation than by short-term rewards of collective action. PMID:25240393

Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO 2 emissions

DOE PAGES

Feng, Sha; Lauvaux, Thomas; Newman, Sally; ...

2016-07-22

Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO 2 (FFCO 2) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km 2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO 2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO 2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO 2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as ~1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimizedmore » errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO 2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO 2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO 2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO 2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO 2 fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO 2 emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO 2 emissions modelling with ~1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.« less

Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO 2 emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Sha; Lauvaux, Thomas; Newman, Sally

Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO 2 (FFCO 2) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km 2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO 2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO 2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO 2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as ~1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimizedmore » errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO 2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO 2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO 2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO 2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO 2 fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO 2 emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO 2 emissions modelling with ~1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Rein and Zheng Elected to American Academy of Microbiology | Poster

Cancer.gov

By Nancy Parrish, Staff Writer Earlier this year, Alan Rein, Ph.D., and Zhi-Ming (Thomas) Zheng, M.D., Ph.D., were elected to fellowship in the American Academy of Microbiology, the honorific leadership group within the American Society for Microbiology (ASM). They were among 88 microbiologists who were elected to the academy “through a highly selective, peer-review process, based on their records of scientific achievement and original contributions that have advanced microbiology,” according to the society’s website.

Constraining Stochastic Parametrisation Schemes Using High-Resolution Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, H. M.; Dawson, A.; Palmer, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic parametrisations are used in weather and climate models as a physically motivated way to represent model error due to unresolved processes. Designing new stochastic schemes has been the target of much innovative research over the last decade. While a focus has been on developing physically motivated approaches, many successful stochastic parametrisation schemes are very simple, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) multiplicative scheme `Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies' (SPPT). The SPPT scheme improves the skill of probabilistic weather and seasonal forecasts, and so is widely used. However, little work has focused on assessing the physical basis of the SPPT scheme. We address this matter by using high-resolution model simulations to explicitly measure the `error' in the parametrised tendency that SPPT seeks to represent. The high resolution simulations are first coarse-grained to the desired forecast model resolution before they are used to produce initial conditions and forcing data needed to drive the ECMWF Single Column Model (SCM). By comparing SCM forecast tendencies with the evolution of the high resolution model, we can measure the `error' in the forecast tendencies. In this way, we provide justification for the multiplicative nature of SPPT, and for the temporal and spatial scales of the stochastic perturbations. However, we also identify issues with the SPPT scheme. It is therefore hoped these measurements will improve both holistic and process based approaches to stochastic parametrisation. Figure caption: Instantaneous snapshot of the optimal SPPT stochastic perturbation, derived by comparing high-resolution simulations with a low resolution forecast model.

The Camp David Peace Accords: A Model for Greece and Turkey

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-01-01

PASOK ) and would lose the election. The platform supported by PASOK and Prime Minister Papandreou in October 1981, when he was first elected, was to...several personally embarrassing events that have weakened his support from the Greek populace and from his PASOK Party. The need for peace Is apparent to

Management Communication in US MBA Programs: The State of the Art.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Melinda

1999-01-01

Examines 32 top-ranked Masters of Business Administration programs. Finds that management communication is an important part of professional graduate management education: 18 of the schools have required core courses in communication, and 2 others follow an integrated model and offer electives; another 9 offer electives only. Finds that only 3…

Reducing elective general surgery cancellations at a Canadian hospital

PubMed Central

Azari-Rad, Solmaz; Yontef, Alanna L.; Aleman, Dionne M.; Urbach, David R.

2013-01-01

Background In Canadian hospitals, which are typically financed by global annual budgets, overuse of operating rooms is a financial risk that is frequently managed by cancelling elective surgical procedures. It is uncertain how different scheduling rules affect the rate of elective surgery cancellations. Methods We used discrete event simulation modelling to represent perioperative processes at a hospital in Toronto, Canada. We tested the effects of the following 3 scenarios on the number of surgical cancellations: scheduling surgeons’ operating days based on their patients’ average length of stay in hospital, sequencing surgical procedures by average duration and variance, and increasing the number of post-surgical ward beds. Results The number of elective cancellations was reduced by scheduling surgeons whose patients had shorter average lengths of stay in hospital earlier in the week, sequencing shorter surgeries and those with less variance in duration earlier in the day, and by adding up to 2 additional beds to the postsurgical ward. Conclusion Discrete event simulation modelling can be used to develop strategies for improving efficiency in operating rooms. PMID:23351498

A first-digit anomaly in the 2009 Iranian presidential election

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roukema, Boudewijn F.

2014-01-01

A local bootstrap method is proposed for the analysis of electoral vote-count first-digit frequencies, complementing the Benford's Law limit. The method is calibrated on five presidential-election first rounds (2002-2006) and applied to the 2009 Iranian presidential-election first round. Candidate K has a highly significant (p < 0.15%) excess of vote counts starting with the digit 7. This leads to other anomalies, two of which are individually significant at p˜ 0.1%, and one at p sim 1%. Independently, Iranian pre-election opinion polls significantly reject the official results unless the five polls favouring candidate A are considered alone. If the latter represent normalised data and a linear, least-squares, equal-weighted fit is used, then either candidates R and K suffered a sudden, dramatic (70%pm 15%) loss of electoral support just prior to the election, or the official results are rejected (p ˜ 0.01%).

“Information Survival Skills”: a medical school elective

PubMed Central

Morley, Sarah Knox; Hendrix, Ingrid Claire

2012-01-01

Objective: The authors developed an elective course to assist students in (1) understanding the changing nature of scholarly communication and online publishing, (2) identifying resources and strategies for searching current best evidence, and (3) demonstrating effective communication of information. Setting: The course took place in a medical school in the Southwest. Participants: Second- and third-year medical students participated in the course. Intervention: A pass-fail, undergraduate-level elective was first offered October to December 2006. This 7.5 hour course, developed and co-taught by 2 health sciences library faculty, consisted of hands-on exercises, small group discussion, and didactic lecture. Conclusion: Presenting a medical school elective is one possible outlet for intensive bibliographic instruction. Illustrating the flow of information from creation to management and presentation affords students an opportunity to understand information in context. This elective has been consistently ranked very high in student evaluations and led to new and expanded teaching opportunities. PMID:23133330

Economic evaluation of major knee surgery with recombinant activated factor VII in hemophilia patients with high titer inhibitors and advanced knee arthropathy: exploratory results via literature-based modeling.

PubMed

Ballal, Rahul D; Botteman, Marc F; Foley, Isaac; Stephens, Jennifer M; Wilke, Caitlyn T; Joshi, Ashish V

2008-03-01

People with severe hemophilia suffer from frequent intra-articular hemorrhages, leading to pain, swelling, reduced flexion, and arthropathy. Elective orthopedic surgery using factor VIII (FVIII) replacement to prevent uncontrolled bleeding has been endorsed as an effective treatment option for patients with severe or advanced hemophilic arthropathy. These surgeries reduce pain, restore mobility and function, and reduce the frequency of recurrent joint bleeds. Unfortunately, some patients with hemophilia develop inhibitors to FVIII, which neutralize FVIII activity and render the use of even massive amounts of FVIII replacement ineffective and surgery very risky. For this reason, elective surgical procedures in high-titer inhibitor patients had largely been abandoned until the introduction of new agents, such as recombinant activated factor VII (rFVIIa, NovoSeven, Novo Nordisk A/S, Denmark). rFVIIa has been shown effective for prophylaxis during elective surgery and has therefore improved the feasibility of orthopedic surgery in hemophilia patients with high-titer inhibitors. The present research explored, from a modified US payer perspective, the direct economic and quality of life benefits of four different elective knee surgeries (total knee replacement [TKR], knee arthrodesis [KA], proximal tibial osteotomy, and distal femoral osteotomy) with rFVIIa coverage in hemophilia patients with high-titer inhibitors. An exploratory literature-based life-table model was developed to compare the direct medical costs and quality of life of two hypothetical cohorts of high-titer inhibitor patients with frequent bleeding episodes: one undergoing and the other not undergoing elective knee surgery. Knee surgery costs included perioperative rFVIIa costs, inpatient and rehabilitation care, and repeat procedures due to surgery failure, prosthesis loosening or deep infection. Based on efficacy studies, knee surgery was assumed to reduce mean annual bleeding episodes at the affected joint from 9.13 to 1.64. The cost of managing each bleeding episode was estimated at $15 298. Thus, by reducing bleeding episodes, surgery was expected to result in related cost offsets. All costs were expressed in 2006 US dollars. Surgery was also assumed to result in gains in quality of life by reducing pain and reducing bleeding episodes. The impact of pain reduction on quality of life and utility was estimated by simulating EQ-5D scores for a typical patient with and without knee surgery. Based on the model, average knee surgery costs are predicted to range from a low of $694 000 (for KA) to a high of $855 000 (for TKR). However, knee surgery is also expected to reduce the subsequent number of bleeding episodes and resultant costs, leading to long-term costs savings. Due to improvement in pain levels, surgical patients are expected to experience improvements in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Thus, surgery appears to be the preferred strategy (i.e., saves costs and increases QALYs). Based on the assumptions used in the model, the initial cost of knee surgery was offset during the 8th and 10th years for KA and TKR, respectively, with intermediate break-even time for the other surgeries. As expected, cost savings and gains in QALYs increased over time, as well as the cost effective ness of knee surgery. Specifically, the cost per QALY with KA and TKR fell under $50 000/QALY during the 6th and 8th years, respectively, with intermediate time for the other surgeries. The present exploratory analysis is based on the long-term extrapolation of data from a small number of patients without inhibitors and short-term studies. It suggests that major knee surgery utilizing rFVIIa in hemophilia patients with inhibitors may be cost-effective on average, with expected cost savings apparent within a decade of knee surgery. The present exploratory results should be validated with real-world, longitudinal patient data.

Empirical analysis of domestic medical travel for elective cardiovascular procedures.

PubMed

Langley, Jacob D; Johnson, Tricia J; Hohmann, Samuel F; Meurer, Steve J; Garman, Andy N

2013-10-01

To investigate whether domestic medical travel (DMT; traveling outside of one's home region but within the United States for medical care) and surgeon volume affect clinical outcomes and costs for patients undergoing elective cardiovascular procedures. Retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of patient discharge data from US academic medical centers. Patients were classified as medical travelers if they received elective, nonemergent care more than 250 miles from home. High-volume surgeons (HVSs) were those above the 75th percentile compared with other study surgeons in the annual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed. Multivariable regression models were fit to test the relationships among complications, mortality, length of stay (LOS), cost, DMT status, and surgeon volume, controlling for sociodemographic and clinical factors. Patients who traveled to HVSs were more likely to be male, white, have lower severity of illness, and have health insurance through an indemnity plan or preferred provider organization with coverage outside of the patient's home region. Patients who traveled to HVSs had shorter LOS and fewer complications than those who received care from local, low-volume surgeons. There was no significant difference in mortality between travelers and nontravelers. Patients who travelled to HVSs for elective cardiovascular procedures had outcomes similar to or better than those of patients who received care locally from low-volume surgeons. We found no increase in complications or LOS, despite potentially complex logistical arrangements required by travelers. More work is needed to evaluate the potential of DMT to improve the value of care provided for selected procedures.

Patient's decision making in selecting a hospital for elective orthopaedic surgery.

PubMed

Moser, Albine; Korstjens, Irene; van der Weijden, Trudy; Tange, Huibert

2010-12-01

The admission to a hospital for elective surgery, like arthroplasty, can be planned ahead. The elective nature of arthroplasty and the increasing stimulus of the public to critically select a hospital raise the issue of how patients actually take such decisions. The aim of this paper is to describe the decision-making process of selecting a hospital as experienced by people who underwent elective joint arthroplasty and to understand what factors influenced the decision-making process. Qualitative descriptive study with 18 participants who had a hip or knee replacement within the last 5 years. Data were gathered from eight individual interviews and four focus group interviews and analysed by content analysis. Three categories that influenced the selection of a hospital were revealed: information sources, criteria in decision making and decision-making styles within the GP- patient relationship. Various contextual aspects influenced the decision-making process. Most participants gave higher priority to the selection of a medical specialist than to the selection of a hospital. Selecting a hospital for arthroplasty is extremely complex. The decision-making process is a highly individualized process because patients have to consider and assimilate a diversity of aspects, which are relevant to their specific situation. Our findings support the model of shared decision making, which indicates that general practitioners should be attuned to the distinct needs of each patient at various moments during the decision making, taking into account personal, medical and contextual factors. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Global Health Elective Course in a PharmD Curriculum

PubMed Central

Dutta, Arjun; Kovera, Craig

2014-01-01

Objective. To describe the design, development, and the first 4 implementations of a Global Health elective course intended to prepare pharmacy students pursue global health careers and to evaluate student perceptions of the instructional techniques used and of skills developed during the course. Design. Following the blended curriculum model used at Touro College of Pharmacy, the Global Health course combined team-based learning (TBL) sessions in class, out-of-class team projects, and online self-directed learning with classroom teaching and discussion sessions. Assessment. Student performance was assessed with TBL sessions, team projects, and class presentations, online quizzes, and final examinations. A precourse and postcourse survey showed improvement in global health knowledge and attitudes, and in the perception of pharmacists’ role and career opportunities in global health. Significant improvement in skills applicable to global health work was reported and students rated highly the instructional techniques, value, and relevance of the course. Conclusion. The Global Health elective course is on track to achieve its intended goal of equipping pharmacy students with the requisite knowledge and applicable skills to pursue global health careers and opportunities. After taking this course, students have gone on to pursue global field experiences. PMID:25657374

ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiswell, S

2009-01-11

Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-timemore » level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.« less

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, WilliamM.

2011-01-01

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Student and Parental Message Effects on Urban Hispanic-American Students' Intention To Enroll in High School Chemistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Black, Carolyn Bicknell; Crawley, Frank E.

This research examined the effects of belief-based messages on the intentions of ninth and tenth grade, Hispanic-American students to enroll in their first elective science course at the pre-college level, chemistry. The design of the study was guided by the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1989) and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of…

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-22

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements. Astronaut Tracy Dyson speaks to legislators in Alabama House of Representatives

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-22

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements. MSFC Director Todd May and Astronaut Tracy Dyson chat with Alabama Governor Kay Ivey.

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-22

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements. MSFC Director Todd May and Astronaut Tracy Dyson speak to the Alabama State Senate.

High-resolution model for estimating the economic and policy implications of agricultural soil salinization in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welle, Paul D.; Mauter, Meagan S.

2017-09-01

This work introduces a generalizable approach for estimating the field-scale agricultural yield losses due to soil salinization. When integrated with regional data on crop yields and prices, this model provides high-resolution estimates for revenue losses over large agricultural regions. These methods account for the uncertainty inherent in model inputs derived from satellites, experimental field data, and interpreted model results. We apply this method to estimate the effect of soil salinity on agricultural outputs in California, performing the analysis with both high-resolution (i.e. field scale) and low-resolution (i.e. county-scale) data sources to highlight the importance of spatial resolution in agricultural analysis. We estimate that soil salinity reduced agricultural revenues by 3.7 billion (1.7-7.0 billion) in 2014, amounting to 8.0 million tons of lost production relative to soil salinities below the crop-specific thresholds. When using low-resolution data sources, we find that the costs of salinization are underestimated by a factor of three. These results highlight the need for high-resolution data in agro-environmental assessment as well as the challenges associated with their integration.

Waiting time of inpatients before elective surgical procedures at a State Government Teaching Hospital in India.

PubMed

Ray, Shreyasi; Kirtania, Jyotirmay

2017-01-01

Abundant published literature exists addressing the issues of outpatient waiting lists before surgery. However, there is no published literature on inpatient waiting time before elective surgical procedures. This study aims to measure the inpatient waiting time, identify the factors that affect the inpatient waiting time, and recommend the ways of reducing the waiting time of inpatients before elective surgical procedures, at a state government teaching hospital in India. Descriptive research methods and quality control tools were used for this prospective observational study. Descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk test of normality, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test, and Kruskal-Wallis test were used. Pareto charts were used to highlight the most important modifiable factors among the set of factors causing increased waiting time. We also applied the M/M/c model (Erlang - A model) of queue theory to analyze the traffic intensity and system congestion. The median waiting time of inpatients before elective surgery was 12 days (interquartile range = 11.5 days). The waiting time was influenced significantly (P < 0.05) by the patient's age, physical status, and the financial status. The surgical specialty, blood product booking and procurement, cross-specialty consultation before surgery, and Intensive Care Unit booking were the other important factors. Modifiable and nonmodifiable factors affecting the inpatient waiting time of surgical patients were identified. Control measures that can reduce the waiting time of inpatients before elective surgery were identified.

Mesoscale landscape model of gypsy moth phenology

Treesearch

Joseph M. Russo; John G. W. Kelley; Andrew M. Liebhold

1991-01-01

A recently-developed high resolution climatological temperature data base was input into a gypsy moth phenology model. The high resolution data were created from a coupling of 30-year averages of station observations and digital elevation data. The resultant maximum and minimum temperatures have about a 1 km resolution which represents meteorologically the mesoscale....

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; ...

2016-11-22

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relativelymore » few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. Lastly, HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.« less

Utilization of Short-Simulations for Tuning High-Resolution Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Ma, P. L.; Rasch, P. J.; Qian, Y.; Wan, H.; Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.

2016-12-01

Many physical parameterizations in atmospheric models are sensitive to resolution. Tuning the models that involve a multitude of parameters at high resolution is computationally expensive, particularly when relying primarily on multi-year simulations. This work describes a complementary set of strategies for tuning high-resolution atmospheric models, using ensembles of short simulations to reduce the computational cost and elapsed time. Specifically, we utilize the hindcast approach developed through the DOE Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project for high-resolution model tuning, which is guided by a combination of short (< 10 days ) and longer ( 1 year) Perturbed Parameters Ensemble (PPE) simulations at low resolution to identify model feature sensitivity to parameter changes. The CAPT tests have been found to be effective in numerous previous studies in identifying model biases due to parameterized fast physics, and we demonstrate that it is also useful for tuning. After the most egregious errors are addressed through an initial "rough" tuning phase, longer simulations are performed to "hone in" on model features that evolve over longer timescales. We explore these strategies to tune the DOE ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy) model. For the ACME model at 0.25° resolution, it is confirmed that, given the same parameters, major biases in global mean statistics and many spatial features are consistent between Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and CAPT-type hindcasts, with just a small number of short-term simulations for the latter over the corresponding season. The use of CAPT hindcasts to find parameter choice for the reduction of large model biases dramatically improves the turnaround time for the tuning at high resolution. Improvement seen in CAPT hindcasts generally translates to improved AMIP-type simulations. An iterative CAPT-AMIP tuning approach is therefore adopted during each major tuning cycle, with the former to survey the likely responses and narrow the parameter space, and the latter to verify the results in climate context along with assessment in greater detail once an educated set of parameter choice is selected. Limitations on using short-term simulations for tuning climate model are also discussed.

An overview of the health economic implications of elective caesarean section.

PubMed

Petrou, Stavros; Khan, Kamran

2013-12-01

The caesarean section rate has continued to increase in most industrialised countries, which raises a number of economic concerns. This review provides an overview of the health economic implications of elective caesarean section. It provides a succinct summary of the health consequences associated with elective caesarean section for both the infant and the mother over the perinatal period and beyond. It highlights factors that complicate our understanding of the health consequences of elective caesarean section, including inconsistencies in definitions and coding of the procedure, failure to adopt an intention-to-treat principle when drawing comparisons, and the widespread reliance on observational data. The paper then summarises the economic costs associated with elective caesarean section. Evidence is presented to suggest that planned caesarean section may be less costly than planned vaginal birth in some clinical contexts, for example where the singleton fetus lies in a breech position at term. In contrast, elective caesarean section (or caesarean section as a whole) appears to be more costly than vaginal delivery (either spontaneous or instrumented) in low-risk or unselected populations. The paper proceeds with an overview of economic evaluations associated with elective caesarean section. All are currently based on decision-analytic models. Evidence is presented to suggest that planned trial of labour (attempted vaginal birth) following a previous caesarean section appears to be a more cost-effective option than elective caesarean section, although its cost effectiveness is dependent upon the probability of successful vaginal delivery. There is conflicting evidence on the cost effectiveness of maternal request caesareans when compared with trial of labour. The paucity of evidence on the value pregnant women, clinicians and other groups in society place on the option of elective caesarean section is highlighted. Techniques that might be used to elicit preferences for elective caesarean section and its attributes are outlined. The review concludes with directions for future research in this area.

"Happy Days Are Here Again": A Left and Right Brain 4MAT Approach to Teaching Depression-Era Presidential Elections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantu, D. Antonio

2001-01-01

Provides a lesson plan that focuses on the 1932, 1936, and 1940 presidential election campaigns. Illustrates the use of the left and right brain 4MAT teaching model that considers individual learning styles associated with right and left hemisphere dominance. Includes a bibliography and eight handouts. (CMK)

Preoperative Education for Hip and Knee Replacement: Never Stop Learning.

PubMed

Edwards, Paul K; Mears, Simon C; Lowry Barnes, C

2017-09-01

Participation in alternative payment models has focused efforts to improve outcomes and patient satisfaction while also lowering cost for elective hip and knee replacement. The purpose of this review is to determine if preoperative education classes for elective hip and knee replacement achieve these goals. Recent literature demonstrates that patients who attend education classes prior to surgery have decreased anxiety, better post-operative pain control, more realistic expectations of surgery, and a better understanding of their surgery. As a result, comprehensive clinical pathways incorporating a preoperative education program for elective hip and knee replacement lead to lower hospital length of stay, higher home discharge, lower readmission, and improved cost. In summary, we report convincing evidence that preoperative education classes are an essential element to successful participation in alternative payment models such as the Bundle Payment Care Initiative.

Studies regarding the quality of numerical weather forecasts of the WRF model integrated at high-resolutions for the Romanian territory

DOE PAGES

Iriza, Amalia; Dumitrache, Rodica C.; Lupascu, Aurelia; ...

2016-01-01

Our paper aims to evaluate the quality of high-resolution weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. The lateral and boundary conditions were obtained from the numerical output of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model at 7 km horizontal resolution. Furthermore, the WRF model was run for January and July 2013 at two horizontal resolutions (3 and 1 km). The numerical forecasts of the WRF model were evaluated using different statistical scores for 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed. Our results showed a tendency of the WRF model to overestimate the valuesmore » of the analyzed parameters in comparison to observations.« less

Studies regarding the quality of numerical weather forecasts of the WRF model integrated at high-resolutions for the Romanian territory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iriza, Amalia; Dumitrache, Rodica C.; Lupascu, Aurelia

Our paper aims to evaluate the quality of high-resolution weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. The lateral and boundary conditions were obtained from the numerical output of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model at 7 km horizontal resolution. Furthermore, the WRF model was run for January and July 2013 at two horizontal resolutions (3 and 1 km). The numerical forecasts of the WRF model were evaluated using different statistical scores for 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed. Our results showed a tendency of the WRF model to overestimate the valuesmore » of the analyzed parameters in comparison to observations.« less

A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

2014-12-01

High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

2010-01-01

We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants’ predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants’ forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares, and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Participants’ forecasts seem to rest on judgments of candidates’ personal attributes (such as likeability), rather than inferences about candidates’ policy positions. Though conclusive causal inference is not possible in our context, our findings may be seen as suggestive evidence of a causal effect of candidate appeal on election outcomes. PMID:20431718

The Impact of Horizontal and Temporal Resolution on Convection and Precipitation with High-Resolution GEOS-5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William P.

2012-01-01

Using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 with the cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core, the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on cloud properties will be evaluated. There are indications from examining convective cluster development in high resolution GEOS-5 forecasts that the temporal resolution within the model may playas significant a role as horizontal resolution. Comparing modeled convective cloud clusters versus satellite observations of brightness temperature, we have found that improved. temporal resolution in GEOS-S accounts for a significant portion of the improvements in the statistical distribution of convective cloud clusters. Using satellite simulators in GEOS-S we will compare the cloud optical properties of GEOS-S at various spatial and temporal resolutions with those observed from MODIS. The potential impact of these results on tropical cyclone formation and intensity will be examined as well.

A pragmatic multi-centre randomised controlled trial of fluid loading and level of dependency in high-risk surgical patients undergoing major elective surgery: trial protocol

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Patients undergoing major elective or urgent surgery are at high risk of death or significant morbidity. Measures to reduce this morbidity and mortality include pre-operative optimisation and use of higher levels of dependency care after surgery. We propose a pragmatic multi-centre randomised controlled trial of level of dependency and pre-operative fluid therapy in high-risk surgical patients undergoing major elective surgery. Methods/Design A multi-centre randomised controlled trial with a 2 * 2 factorial design. The first randomisation is to pre-operative fluid therapy or standard regimen and the second randomisation is to routine intensive care versus high dependency care during the early post-operative period. We intend to recruit 204 patients undergoing major elective and urgent abdominal and thoraco-abdominal surgery who fulfil high-risk surgical criteria. The primary outcome for the comparison of level of care is cost-effectiveness at six months and for the comparison of fluid optimisation is the number of hospital days after surgery. Discussion We believe that the results of this study will be invaluable in determining the future care and clinical resource utilisation for this group of patients and thus will have a major impact on clinical practice. Trial Registration Trial registration number - ISRCTN32188676 PMID:20398378

Robust Hydrological Forecasting for High-resolution Distributed Models Using a Unified Data Assimilation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, F.; Liang, X.

2017-12-01

Reliable real-time hydrological forecasting, to predict important phenomena such as floods, is invaluable to the society. However, modern high-resolution distributed models have faced challenges when dealing with uncertainties that are caused by the large number of parameters and initial state estimations involved. Therefore, to rely on these high-resolution models for critical real-time forecast applications, considerable improvements on the parameter and initial state estimation techniques must be made. In this work we present a unified data assimilation algorithm called Optimized PareTo Inverse Modeling through Inverse STochastic Search (OPTIMISTS) to deal with the challenge of having robust flood forecasting for high-resolution distributed models. This new algorithm combines the advantages of particle filters and variational methods in a unique way to overcome their individual weaknesses. The analysis of candidate particles compares model results with observations in a flexible time frame, and a multi-objective approach is proposed which attempts to simultaneously minimize differences with the observations and departures from the background states by using both Bayesian sampling and non-convex evolutionary optimization. Moreover, the resulting Pareto front is given a probabilistic interpretation through kernel density estimation to create a non-Gaussian distribution of the states. OPTIMISTS was tested on a low-resolution distributed land surface model using VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) and on a high-resolution distributed hydrological model using the DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model). In the tests streamflow observations are assimilated. OPTIMISTS was also compared with a traditional particle filter and a variational method. Results show that our method can reliably produce adequate forecasts and that it is able to outperform those resulting from assimilating the observations using a particle filter or an evolutionary 4D variational method alone. In addition, our method is shown to be efficient in tackling high-resolution applications with robust results.

Communication Arts: A Tentative Curriculum Guide for English Electives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irving Independent School District, TX.

The elective English courses for high school students contained in this curriculum guide include a variety of subject matter and activities, thus allowing for different learning capabilities, cultural influences, and interests while focusing on the interrelated study of language, literature, and composition. Each of the 19 courses outlined…

New Utility for an Old Tool

PubMed Central

Odonkor, Charles A.; Schonberger, Robert B.; Dai, Feng; Shelley, Kirk H.; Silverman, David G.; Barash, Paul G.

2013-01-01

Objective The primary aim of this study was to design prediction models based on a functional marker (preoperative gait-speed) to predict readiness for home discharge time of ≤ 90 minutes, and to identify those at risk for unplanned admissions, after elective ambulatory surgery. Design This prospective observational cohort study evaluated all patients scheduled for elective ambulatory surgery. Home discharge readiness and unplanned admissions were the primary outcomes. Independent variables included preoperative gait speed, heart rate, and total anesthesia time. The relationship between all predictors and each primary outcome was determined in separate multivariable logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for covariates, gait speed with adjusted odds ratio = 3.71 (95% CI: 1.21-11.26), p=0.02; was independently associated with early home discharge readiness ≤90 minutes. Importantly, gait speed dichotomized as greater or less than 1 m/s predicted unplanned admissions with odds ratio = 0.35 (95% CI: 0.16 to 0.76, p=0.008) for those with speeds ≥ 1 m/s in comparison to those with speed < 1 m/s. In a separate model, prior history of cardiac surgery with adjusted odds ratio =7.5 (95% CI: 2.34-24.41)(p=0.001) was independently associated with unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery, when other covariates were held constant. Conclusions This study demonstrates use of novel prediction models based on gait speed testing to predict early home discharge and to identify those patients at risk for unplanned admissions, after elective ambulatory surgery. PMID:24051992

Framework for Detection and Localization of Extreme Climate Event with Pixel Recursive Super Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. K.; Lee, J.; Zhang, C.; Ames, S.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep learning techniques have been successfully applied to solve many problems in climate and geoscience using massive-scaled observed and modeled data. For extreme climate event detections, several models based on deep neural networks have been recently proposed and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous handcrafted expert based method. The issue arising, though, is that accurate localization of events requires high quality of climate data. In this work, we propose framework capable of detecting and localizing extreme climate events in very coarse climate data. Our framework is based on two models using deep neural networks, (1) Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to detect and localize extreme climate events, and (2) Pixel recursive recursive super resolution model to reconstruct high resolution climate data from low resolution climate data. Based on our preliminary work, we have presented two CNNs in our framework for different purposes, detection and localization. Our results using CNNs for extreme climate events detection shows that simple neural nets can capture the pattern of extreme climate events with high accuracy from very coarse reanalysis data. However, localization accuracy is relatively low due to the coarse resolution. To resolve this issue, the pixel recursive super resolution model reconstructs the resolution of input of localization CNNs. We present a best networks using pixel recursive super resolution model that synthesizes details of tropical cyclone in ground truth data while enhancing their resolution. Therefore, this approach not only dramat- ically reduces the human effort, but also suggests possibility to reduce computing cost required for downscaling process to increase resolution of data.

Evaluating surface transport predictions of alternative ocean-atmosphere models using surface drifters in the Belizean Barrier Reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindo-Atichati, D.; Curcic, M.; Paris, C. B.; Buston, P. M.

2016-02-01

Determining the appropriate resolution of circulation models often lacks statistical evaluation. Thus, the gains from implementing high-resolution versus less-costly low-resolution models are not always clear. Here we construct a hierarchy of ocean-atmosphere models operating at multiple-scales within a 1×1° domain of the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR). We compare the dispersion and velocity of 55 surface drifters released in the field in summer 2013 to the dispersion and velocity of simulated drifters under alternative model configurations. Increasing the resolution of the ocean model (from 1/12° to 1/100°, from 1 day to 1 h), the resolution of the atmosphere model forcing (from 1/2° to 1/100°, from 6 h to 1 h), and incorporating tidal forcing incrementally reduces discrepancy between simulated and observed velocities and dispersion. We also investigate the effect of semi-diurnal tides on the local circulation. The model with highest resolution and with tidal forcing resolves higher number of looping trajectories and sub-mesoscale coherent structures. This may be a key factor in reducing discrepancy between simulated and observed velocities and dispersion. Simulations conducted with the highest resolution ocean-atmosphere model and tidal forcing highlight an intensification of the velocity fields throughout the summer and reveal several processes: mesoscale anticyclonic circulation around Glovers Reef, and recurrent sub-mesoscale cyclonic eddies formed in the vicinity of Columbus Island. This study provides a general framework to estimate the best surface transport prediction from different ocean-atmosphere models using metrics derived from high frequency drifters' data. Also, this study provides an evaluated high-resolution ocean-atmosphere model that resolves tides for the Belizean Barrier Reef.

LM-3: A High-resolution Lake Michigan Mass Balance Water Quality Model

EPA Science Inventory

This report is a user’s manual that describes the high-resolution mass balance model known as LM3. LM3 has been applied to Lake Michigan to describe the transport and fate of atrazine, PCB congeners, and chloride in that system. The model has also been used to model eutrophicat...

Spatial and temporal resolution effects on urban catchments with different imperviousness degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; van de Giesen, Nick C.

2015-04-01

One of the main problems in urban hydrological analysis is to measure the rainfall at urban scale with high resolution and use these measurements to model urban runoff processes to predict flows and reduce flood risk. With the aim of building a semi-distribute hydrological sewer model for an urban catchment, high resolution rainfall data are required as input. In this study, the sensitivity of hydrological response to high resolution precipitation data for hydrodynamic models at urban scale is evaluated with different combinations of spatial and temporal resolutions. The aim is to study sensitivity in relation to catchment characteristics, especially drainage area size, imperviousness degree and hydraulic properties such as special structures (weirs, pumping stations). Rainfall data of nine storms are considered with 4 different spatial resolutions (3000m, 1000m, 500m and 100m) combined with 4 different temporal resolutions (10min, 5min, 3min and 1min). The dual polarimetric X-band weather radar, located in the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) provided the high resolution rainfall data of these rainfall events, used to improve the sewer model. The effects of spatial-temporal rainfall input resolution on response is studied in three Districts of Rotterdam (NL): Kralingen, Spaanse Polder and Centrum district. These catchments have different average drainage area size (from 2km2 to 7km2), and different general characteristics. Centrum district and Kralingen are, indeed, more various and include residential and commercial areas, big green areas and a small industrial area, while Spaanse Polder is a industrial area, densely urbanized, and presents a high percentage of imperviousness.

A resolution expressing the sense of the Senate that the Government of Afghanistan, with the support of the international community, should fulfill its obligations to ensure that women fully participate as candidates and voters in the August 20, 2009, presidential and provincial council elections in Afghanistan.

THOMAS, 111th Congress

Sen. Gillibrand, Kirsten E. [D-NY

2009-08-07

Senate - 08/07/2009 Submitted in the Senate, considered, and agreed to without amendment and with a preamble by Unanimous Consent. (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status Agreed to in SenateHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

High Resolution Land Surface Modeling with the next generation Land Data Assimilation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S. V.; Eylander, J.; Peters-Lidard, C.

2005-12-01

Knowledge of land surface processes is important to many real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management, and flood predication. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has provided the USDA and other customers global soil moisture and temperature data for the past 30 years using the agrometeorological data assimilation model (now called AGRMET), merging atmospheric data. Further, accurate initialization of land surface conditions has been shown to greatly influence and improve weather forecast model and seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. The AFWA AGRMET model exploits real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model and satellite data to generate global estimates of soil moisture, soil temperature and other land surface states at 48km spatial resolution. However, to truly address the land surface initialization and climate prediction problem, and to mitigate the errors introduced by the differences in spatial scales of models, representations of land surface conditions need to be developed at the same fine scales such as that of cloud resolving models. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has developed an offline land data assimilation system known as the Land Information System (LIS) capable of modeling land atmosphere interactions at spatial resolutions as fine as 1km. LIS provides a software architecture that integrates the use of the state of the art land surface models, data assimilation techniques, and high performance computing and data management tools. LIS also employs many high resolution surface parameters such as the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS)-era products. In this study we describe the development of a next generation high resolution land surface modeling and data assimilation system, combining the capabilities of LIS and AGRMET. We investigate the influence of high resolution land surface data and observations on the land surface conditions by comparing with the operational AGRMET outputs.

Cultural implications of differing rates of medically indicated and elective cesarean deliveries for foreign-born versus native-born taiwanese mothers.

PubMed

Huang, Chun-Che; Li, Chung-Yi; Yang, Chiang-Hsing

2012-07-01

The study aimed to assess the number of medically indicated and elective cesarean deliveries among foreign-born and native-born mothers in Taiwan. National Health Insurance (NHI) inpatient datasets in Taiwan between 2001 and 2003 showed 673,830 singleton deliveries, of which 66,687 were to foreign-born mothers and 607,143 were to Taiwan-born mothers. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of using inpatient services for medically indicated and elective cesarean delivery. During the study period, foreign-born mothers were significantly less likely to undergo medically indicated (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.79-0.85) and elective (OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.47-0.53) cesarean delivery than Taiwan-born mothers after adjusting for clinical and nonclinical factors. Foreign-born mothers aged 18-50 years are less likely to undergo medically indicated and elective cesarean delivery under Taiwan's NHI coverage. As the birth rate for immigrant women increases, cross-cultural maternity care during pregnancy and childbirth for immigrant mothers needs to be addressed.

Air-Sea Interaction Processes in Low and High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model Simulations for the Southeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porto da Silveira, I.; Zuidema, P.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-12-01

The rugged topography of the Andes Cordillera along with strong coastal upwelling, strong sea surface temperatures (SST) gradients and extensive but geometrically-thin stratocumulus decks turns the Southeast Pacific (SEP) into a challenge for numerical modeling. In this study, hindcast simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) at two resolutions were analyzed to examine the importance of resolution alone, with the parameterizations otherwise left unchanged. The hindcasts were initialized on January 1 with the real-time oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis (CFSR) from 1982 to 2003, forming a 10-member ensemble. The two resolutions are (0.1o oceanic and 0.5o atmospheric) and (1.125o oceanic and 0.9o atmospheric). The SST error growth in the first six days of integration (fast errors) and those resulted from model drift (saturated errors) are assessed and compared towards evaluating the model processes responsible for the SST error growth. For the high-resolution simulation, SST fast errors are positive (+0.3oC) near the continental borders and negative offshore (-0.1oC). Both are associated with a decrease in cloud cover, a weakening of the prevailing southwesterly winds and a reduction of latent heat flux. The saturated errors possess a similar spatial pattern, but are larger and are more spatially concentrated. This suggests that the processes driving the errors already become established within the first week, in contrast to the low-resolution simulations. These, instead, manifest too-warm SSTs related to too-weak upwelling, driven by too-strong winds and Ekman pumping. Nevertheless, the ocean surface tends to be cooler in the low-resolution simulation than the high-resolution due to a higher cloud cover. Throughout the integration, saturated SST errors become positive and could reach values up to +4oC. These are accompanied by upwelling dumping and a decrease in cloud cover. High and low resolution models presented notable differences in how SST errors variability drove atmospheric changes, especially because the high resolution is sensitive to resurgence regions. This allows the model to resolve cloud heights and establish different radiative feedbacks.

Adaptive nonlocal means filtering based on local noise level for CT denoising

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhoubo; Trzasko, Joshua D.; Lake, David S.

2014-01-15

Purpose: To develop and evaluate an image-domain noise reduction method based on a modified nonlocal means (NLM) algorithm that is adaptive to local noise level of CT images and to implement this method in a time frame consistent with clinical workflow. Methods: A computationally efficient technique for local noise estimation directly from CT images was developed. A forward projection, based on a 2D fan-beam approximation, was used to generate the projection data, with a noise model incorporating the effects of the bowtie filter and automatic exposure control. The noise propagation from projection data to images was analytically derived. The analyticalmore » noise map was validated using repeated scans of a phantom. A 3D NLM denoising algorithm was modified to adapt its denoising strength locally based on this noise map. The performance of this adaptive NLM filter was evaluated in phantom studies in terms of in-plane and cross-plane high-contrast spatial resolution, noise power spectrum (NPS), subjective low-contrast spatial resolution using the American College of Radiology (ACR) accreditation phantom, and objective low-contrast spatial resolution using a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO). Graphical processing units (GPU) implementation of this noise map calculation and the adaptive NLM filtering were developed to meet demands of clinical workflow. Adaptive NLM was piloted on lower dose scans in clinical practice. Results: The local noise level estimation matches the noise distribution determined from multiple repetitive scans of a phantom, demonstrated by small variations in the ratio map between the analytical noise map and the one calculated from repeated scans. The phantom studies demonstrated that the adaptive NLM filter can reduce noise substantially without degrading the high-contrast spatial resolution, as illustrated by modulation transfer function and slice sensitivity profile results. The NPS results show that adaptive NLM denoising preserves the shape and peak frequency of the noise power spectrum better than commercial smoothing kernels, and indicate that the spatial resolution at low contrast levels is not significantly degraded. Both the subjective evaluation using the ACR phantom and the objective evaluation on a low-contrast detection task using a CHO model observer demonstrate an improvement on low-contrast performance. The GPU implementation can process and transfer 300 slice images within 5 min. On patient data, the adaptive NLM algorithm provides more effective denoising of CT data throughout a volume than standard NLM, and may allow significant lowering of radiation dose. After a two week pilot study of lower dose CT urography and CT enterography exams, both GI and GU radiology groups elected to proceed with permanent implementation of adaptive NLM in their GI and GU CT practices. Conclusions: This work describes and validates a computationally efficient technique for noise map estimation directly from CT images, and an adaptive NLM filtering based on this noise map, on phantom and patient data. Both the noise map calculation and the adaptive NLM filtering can be performed in times that allow integration with clinical workflow. The adaptive NLM algorithm provides effective denoising of CT data throughout a volume, and may allow significant lowering of radiation dose.« less

The Relationship between Racial Identity and Perceived Significance of the Election of President Barack Obama among African American Mothers.

PubMed

Franco, Marisa; Smith-Bynum, Mia

2016-01-01

African American women's racial identity is a major determinant for how they interpret the world around them, yet there is little research examining how specific aspects of racial identity are linked with attitudes about an event that has been highly significant for African-Americans: the election of President Barack Obama. The current study examined the relationship between African American mothers' racial identity and their perceived significance of the election of President Barack Obama as an indicator of reduced systemic and actual racism for African Americans, using a sample of 110 African American mothers residing in a Northeastern metropolitan area. Results revealed that racial centrality and assimilation positively predicted perceived significance of President Obama's election for diminishing racism. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Racism and the older voter? Arizona's rejection of a paid holiday to honor Martin Luther King.

PubMed

Kastenbaum, R

1991-01-01

Two propositions that would have established a paid Martin Luther King holiday were defeated in Arizona's statewide elections of November 6, 1990. Communities and counties with high proportions of senior adult voters cast proportionately more votes against these propositions. Was this an example of racism among the primarily anglo senior adult voters of Arizona? Three models were proposed to account for the general pattern of election-related behavior as well as the vote itself: 1) proactive racist, 2) pragmatic self-interest, and 3) fortress mentality. It was suggested that proactive racism and pragmatic self-interest accounted for less of the opposition to a paid holiday honoring Martin Luther King than did a fortress mentality that has developed through a combination of circumstances. Attention is also given to the larger question of senior adults as perpetrators as well as victims of bigotry.

An emission processing system for air quality modelling in the Mexico City metropolitan area: Evaluation and comparison of the MOBILE6.2-Mexico and MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions.

PubMed

Guevara, M; Tena, C; Soret, A; Serradell, K; Guzmán, D; Retama, A; Camacho, P; Jaimes-Palomera, M; Mediavilla, A

2017-04-15

This article describes the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System for Mexico (HERMES-Mex) model, an emission processing tool developed to transform the official Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) emission inventory into hourly, gridded (up to 1km 2 ) and speciated emissions used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The methods and ancillary information used for the spatial and temporal disaggregation and speciation of the emissions are presented and discussed. The resulting emission system is evaluated, and a case study on CO, NO 2 , O 3 , VOC and PM 2.5 concentrations is conducted to demonstrate its applicability. Moreover, resulting traffic emissions from the Mobile Source Emission Factor Model for Mexico (MOBILE6.2-Mexico) and the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator for Mexico (MOVES-Mexico) models are integrated in the tool to assess and compare their performance. NO x and VOC total emissions modelled are reduced by 37% and 26% in the MCMA when replacing MOBILE6.2-Mexico for MOVES-Mexico traffic emissions. In terms of air quality, the system composed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the HERMES-Mex and CMAQ models properly reproduces the pollutant levels and patterns measured in the MCMA. The system's performance clearly improves in urban stations with a strong influence of traffic sources when applying MOVES-Mexico emissions. Despite reducing estimations of modelled precursor emissions, O 3 peak averages are increased in the MCMA core urban area (up to 30ppb) when using MOVES-Mexico mobile emissions due to its VOC-limited regime, while concentrations in the surrounding suburban/rural areas decrease or increase depending on the meteorological conditions of the day. The results obtained suggest that the HERMES-Mex model can be used to provide model-ready emissions for air quality modelling in the MCMA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

HIGH-RESOLUTION SPATIAL MODELING OF DAILY WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR A CATCHMENT IN THE OREGON CASCADE MOUNTAINS, UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

High-quality, daily meteorological data at high spatial resolution are essential for a variety of hydrologic and ecological modeling applications that support environmental risk assessments and decision making. This paper describes the development, application, and assessment of ...

Design, dissemination, and evaluation of an advanced communication elective at seven U.S. medical schools.

PubMed

Mauksch, Larry; Farber, Stuart; Greer, H Thomas

2013-06-01

To test educational methods that continue communication training into the fourth year of medical school. The authors disseminated and evaluated an advanced communication elective in seven U.S. medical schools between 2007 and 2009; a total of 9 faculty and 22 fourth-year students participated. The elective emphasized peer learning, practice with real patients, direct observation, and applications of video technology. The authors used qualitative and quantitative survey methods and video review to evaluate the experience of students and faculty. Students reported that the elective was better than most medical school clerkships they had experienced. Their self-confidence in time management and in the use of nine communication skills improved significantly. The most valued course components were video review, repeated practice with real patients, and peer observation. Analysis of student videos with real patients and in role-plays showed that some skills (e.g., agenda setting, understanding the patient perspective) were more frequently demonstrated than others (e.g., exploring family and cultural values, communication while using the electronic health record). Faculty highly valued this learner-centered model and reported that their self-awareness and communication skills grew as teachers and as clinicians. Learner-centered methods such as peer observation and video review and editing may strengthen communication training and reinforce skills introduced earlier in medical education. The course design may counteract a "hidden curriculum" that devalues respectful interactions with trainees and patients. Future research should assess the impact of course elements on skill retention, attitudes for lifelong learning, and patients' health outcomes.

Elections Have Consequences for Student Mental Health: An Accidental Daily Diary Study.

PubMed

Roche, Michael J; Jacobson, Nicholas C

2018-01-01

Polling suggested that the 2016 United States presidential election affected citizens' mood and stress levels. Yet, polling often fails to employ repeated measurement designs that can capture pre- and post-levels of change within the same person. In this study, undergraduate students ( N = 85) completed a 14-day daily diary where mood, stress, and mental health outcomes were assessed before and after the election. Multilevel modeling revealed an immediate upsurge in anxiety, stress, and poor sleep quality the day after the election, followed by a recovery period indicating these effects were short-lived. Other reactions (anger, fear, marginalization, and experiencing discrimination) evidenced a significant upsurge without a significant recovery. We consider how daily diary research designs like this one could be integrated into college settings to inform counseling center resource allocation, and we also comment on the promise of the daily diary methodology for political research.

Protecting the health of medical students on international electives in low-resource settings.

PubMed

Johnston, Niall; Sandys, Nichola; Geoghegan, Rosemary; O'Donovan, Diarmuid; Flaherty, Gerard

2018-01-01

Increasingly, medical students from developed countries are undertaking international medical electives in developing countries. Medical students understand the many benefits of these electives, such as the opportunity to develop clinical skills, to gain insight into global health issues and to travel to interesting regions of the world. However, they may be much less aware of the risk to their health and wellbeing while abroad. Compounding this problem, medical students may not seek advice from travel medicine practitioners and often receive inadequate or no information from their medical school prior to departure. The PubMed database was searched for relevant literature relating to the health of medical elective students. Combinations of the following key words were used as search terms: 'international health elective', 'medical student' and 'health risks'. Articles were restricted to those published in English from 1997 through June 2017. A secondary review of the reference lists of these articles was performed. The grey literature was also searched for relevant material. This narrative literature review outlines the risks of clinical electives in resource-poor settings which include exposure to infectious illness, trauma, sexual health problems, excessive sun exposure, mental health issues and crime. Medical students may mitigate these health risks by being informed and well prepared for high-risk situations. The authors provide evidence-based travel advice which aims to improve pre-travel preparation and maximize student traveller safety. A safer and more enjoyable elective may be achieved if students follow road safety advice, take personal safety measures, demonstrate cultural awareness, attend to their psychological wellbeing and avoid risk-taking behaviours. This article may benefit global health educators, international elective coordinators and travel medicine practitioners. For students, a comprehensive elective checklist, an inventory of health kit items and useful web-based educational resources are provided to help prepare for electives abroad. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Nested hyper-resolution modeling of urban areas for the National Water Model - The Dallas-Fort Worth Testbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Kim, S.; Habibi, H.; Seo, D. J.; Welles, E.; Philips, B.; Adams, E.; Smith, M. B.; Wells, E.

2017-12-01

With the development of the National Water Model (NWM), the NWS has made a step-change advance in operational water forecasting by enabling high-resolution hydrologic modeling across the US. As a part of a separate initiative to enhance flash flood forecasting and inundation mapping capacity, the NWS has been mandated to provide forecasts at even finer spatiotemporal resolutions when and where such information is demanded. In this presentation, we describe implementation of the NWM at a hyper resolution over a nested domain. We use WRF-Hydro as the core model but at significantly higher resolutions with scale-commensurate model parameters. The demonstration domain is multiple urban catchments within the Cities of Arlington and Grand Prairie in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. This area is susceptible to urban flooding due to the hydroclimatology coupled with large impervious cover. The nested model is based on hyper-resolution terrain data to resolve significant land surface features such as streets and large man-made structures, and forced by the high-resolution radar-based quantitative precipitation information. In this presentation, we summarize progress and preliminary results and share issues and challenges.

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Krikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

Persuading girls to take elective physical science courses in high school: Who are the credible communicators?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koballa, Thomas R., Jr.

Eighth-grade girls (N=257) randomly selected from nine different public junior high schools in central Texas were questioned in order to identify the communicators whom they perceive as highly credible regarding reasons for taking elective physical science courses in high school and the attributes associated with these communicators. Four persons were each identified by better than 10 percent of the sample as the best person to try to convince junior high school girls to take elective physical science courses in high school. In order of perceived credibility, these persons are father, woman science teacher, mother, and boy high school student. Slight variations in the order of perceived credibility were found when the responses from girls of the different ethnic groups represented in the sample (Caucasian, Hispanic, Black, and Asian) were examined separately. Attributes listed by the respondents for father, woman science teacher, mother, and boy high school student were examined and classified into the categories of prestige, trustworthiness, similarity, attractiveness, and power. Prestige and trustworthiness are the attributes associates most frequently with communicators identified as highly credible. Implications of the present study and suggestions for further research are discussed.

Horizontal Residual Mean Circulation: Evaluation of Spatial Correlations in Coarse Resolution Ocean Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; McDougall, T. J.

2016-02-01

Coarse resolution ocean models lack knowledge of spatial correlations between variables on scales smaller than the grid scale. Some researchers have shown that these spatial correlations play a role in the poleward heat flux. In order to evaluate the poleward transport induced by the spatial correlations at a fixed horizontal position, an equation is obtained to calculate the approximate transport from velocity gradients. The equation involves two terms that can be added to the quasi-Stokes streamfunction (based on temporal correlations) to incorporate the contribution of spatial correlations. Moreover, these new terms do not need to be parameterized and is ready to be evaluated by using model data directly. In this study, data from a high resolution ocean model have been used to estimate the accuracy of this HRM approach for improving the horizontal property fluxes in coarse-resolution ocean models. A coarse grid is formed by sub-sampling and box-car averaging the fine grid scale. The transport calculated on the coarse grid is then compared to the transport on original high resolution grid scale accumulated over a corresponding number of grid boxes. The preliminary results have shown that the estimate on coarse resolution grids roughly match the corresponding transports on high resolution grids.

Consumer Education: A Senior High Elective Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grout, Marjorie; Rozell, Anthony

The overall objective of this elective senior course and guide is to lead the non-college-bound student toward the maturity of consumer judgement necessary in the complex economic marketplace of today. The scope and sequence section of this guide lists the eight units and includes basic objectives, and conceptual understandings for each: 1)…

Early Election Returns and the Voting Behavior of Adolescent Voters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mann, Leon; And Others

1971-01-01

High school students participated in a field experiment that tested the effects of exposure to early election returns in a nonpartisan referendum. Students in the brighter classes changed their vote less frequently, but when they changed their preferences they showed a greater bandwagon effect. Students in the classes of lower academic achievement…

THE COMPREHENSIVE EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM FOR WEST VIRGINIA SCHOOLS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

SMITH, REX M.

THE COMPREHENSIVE EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM IS DEFINED AS ONE WHICH MEETS THE NEEDS OF ALL STUDENTS AT ALL LEVELS BY PROVIDING COMPREHENSIVE AND ELECTIVE PROGRAMS FOR THOSE STUDENTS REQUIRING SALABLE SKILLS UPON GRADUATION FROM HIGH SCHOOL, AS WELL AS A BROAD ELECTIVE PROGRAM FOR THOSE WHO WISH TO CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION. INCLUDED ARE SUMMARIES OF THE…

Effects of Drake Passage on a strongly eddying global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viebahn, Jan; von der Heydt, Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.

2015-04-01

During the past 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major change from warm 'greenhouse' to colder 'icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The Eocene-Oligocene (~34 Ma) and Oligocene-Miocene (~23 Ma) boundaries reflect major transitions in Cenozoic global climate change. Proposed mechanisms of these transitions include reorganization of ocean circulation due to critical gateway opening/deepening, changes in atmospheric CO2-concentration, and feedback mechanisms related to land-ice formation. Drake Passage (DP) is an intensively studied gateway because it plays a central role in closing the transport pathways of heat and chemicals in the ocean. The climate response to a closed DP has been explored with a variety of general circulation models, however, all of these models employ low model-grid resolutions such that the effects of subgrid-scale fluctuations ('eddies') are parameterized. We present results of the first high-resolution (0.1° horizontally) realistic global ocean model simulation with a closed DP in which the eddy field is largely resolved. The simulation extends over more than 200 years such that the strong transient adjustment process is passed and a near-equilibrium ocean state is reached. The effects of DP are diagnosed by comparing with both an open DP high-resolution control simulation (of same length) and corresponding low-resolution simulations. By focussing on the heat/tracer transports we demonstrate that the results are twofold: Considering spatially integrated transports the overall response to a closed DP is well captured by low-resolution simulations. However, looking at the actual spatial distributions drastic differences appear between far-scattered high-resolution and laminar-uniform low-resolution fields. We conclude that sparse and highly localized tracer proxy observations have to be interpreted carefully with the help of high-resolution model simulations.

Impact of surface coupling grids on tropical cyclone extremes in high-resolution atmospheric simulations

DOE PAGES

Zarzycki, Colin M.; Reed, Kevin A.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; ...

2016-02-25

This article discusses the sensitivity of tropical cyclone climatology to surface coupling strategy in high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model. Using two supported model setups, we demonstrate that the choice of grid on which the lowest model level wind stress and surface fluxes are computed may lead to differences in cyclone strength in multi-decadal climate simulations, particularly for the most intense cyclones. Using a deterministic framework, we show that when these surface quantities are calculated on an ocean grid that is coarser than the atmosphere, the computed frictional stress is misaligned with wind vectors in individual atmospheric gridmore » cells. This reduces the effective surface drag, and results in more intense cyclones when compared to a model configuration where the ocean and atmosphere are of equivalent resolution. Our results demonstrate that the choice of computation grid for atmosphere–ocean interactions is non-negligible when considering climate extremes at high horizontal resolution, especially when model components are on highly disparate grids.« less

Investigation of change in cardinal symptoms of chronic rhinosinusitis after surgical or ongoing medical management.

PubMed

DeConde, Adam S; Mace, Jess C; Alt, Jeremiah A; Soler, Zachary M; Orlandi, Richard R; Smith, Timothy L

2015-01-01

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) has been defined as inflammation of the paranasal sinuses lasting at least 12 weeks with corresponding 2 or more "cardinal symptoms" that include: (1) nasal obstruction; (2) thick nasal discharge; (3) facial pain/pressure; and (4) reduction or loss of sense of smell. Although prior studies have investigated symptoms of CRS after sinus surgery, none have compared the outcomes of these specific symptoms to ongoing medical therapy. Patients with CRS were prospectively enrolled into a multi-institutional, comparative effectiveness, cohort study. Subjects elected either continued medical management or endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Baseline characteristics and objective clinical findings were collected. Cardinal symptoms of CRS were operationalized by 4 questions on the 22-item Sino-Nasal Outcome Test (SNOT-22). Symptom improvement was evaluated in subjects with at least 6-month follow-up. A total of 342 subjects were enrolled, with 69 (20.2%) electing continued medical management, whereas 273 (79.8%) elected ESS. Subjects electing surgical therapy were more likely to have a higher baseline aggregate SNOT-22 score (44.3 (18.9) vs 53.6 (18.8); p < 0.001). All subjects improved across all cardinal symptoms; however, subjects undergoing ESS were significantly more likely (p ≤ 0.013) to experience improvement in thick nasal discharge (odds ratio [OR] = 4.36), facial pain/pressure (OR = 3.56), and blockage/congestion of nose (OR = 2.76). Subjects with nasal polyposis were significantly more likely to report complete resolution of smell/taste following ESS compare to medical management (23.8% vs 4.0%; p = 0.026). Across a large population, surgical management is more effective at resolving the cardinal symptoms of CRS than ongoing medical management with the exception of sense of smell/taste. © 2014 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

A Petascale Non-Hydrostatic Atmospheric Dynamical Core in the HOMME Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tufo, Henry

The High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) is a framework for building scalable, conserva- tive atmospheric models for climate simulation and general atmospheric-modeling applications. Its spatial discretizations are based on Spectral-Element (SE) and Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods. These are local methods employing high-order accurate spectral basis-functions that have been shown to perform well on massively parallel supercomputers at any resolution and scale particularly well at high resolutions. HOMME provides the framework upon which the CAM-SE community atmosphere model dynamical-core is constructed. In its current incarnation, CAM-SE employs the hydrostatic primitive-equations (PE) of motion, which limits its resolution to simulations coarser thanmore » 0.1 per grid cell. The primary objective of this project is to remove this resolution limitation by providing HOMME with the capabilities needed to build nonhydrostatic models that solve the compressible Euler/Navier-Stokes equations.« less

A Parallel, Multi-Scale Watershed-Hydrologic-Inundation Model with Adaptively Switching Mesh for Capturing Flooding and Lake Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, X.; Shen, C.

2017-12-01

Flood inundation presents substantial societal hazards and also changes biogeochemistry for systems like the Amazon. It is often expensive to simulate high-resolution flood inundation and propagation in a long-term watershed-scale model. Due to the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) restriction, high resolution and large local flow velocity both demand prohibitively small time steps even for parallel codes. Here we develop a parallel surface-subsurface process-based model enhanced by multi-resolution meshes that are adaptively switched on or off. The high-resolution overland flow meshes are enabled only when the flood wave invades to floodplains. This model applies semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian (SISL) scheme in solving dynamic wave equations, and with the assistant of the multi-mesh method, it also adaptively chooses the dynamic wave equation only in the area of deep inundation. Therefore, the model achieves a balance between accuracy and computational cost.

Generation of High Resolution Land Surface Parameters in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Leung, L.; Huang, M.; Li, H.

2010-12-01

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land surface model used for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). It examines the physical, chemical, and biological processes across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Currently, efforts are being made to improve the spatial resolution of the CLM, in part, to represent finer scale hydrologic characteristics. Current land surface parameters of CLM4.0, in particular plant functional types (PFT) and leaf area index (LAI), are generated from MODIS and calculated at a 0.05 degree resolution. These MODIS-derived land surface parameters have also been aggregated to coarser resolutions (e.g., 0.5, 1.0 degrees). To evaluate the response of CLM across various spatial scales, higher spatial resolution land surface parameters need to be generated. In this study we examine the use of Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery and data fusion techniques for generating land surface parameters at a 1km resolution within the Pacific Northwest United States. . Land cover types and PFTs are classified based on Landsat multi-season spectral information, DEM, National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the USDA-NASS Crop Data Layer (CDL). For each PFT, relationships between MOD15A2 high quality LAI values, Landsat-based vegetation indices, climate variables, terrain, and laser-altimeter derived vegetation height are used to generate monthly LAI values at a 30m resolution. The high-resolution PFT and LAI data are aggregated to create a 1km model grid resolution. An evaluation and comparison of CLM land surface response at both fine and moderate scale is presented.

A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (MicroMet)

Treesearch

Glen E. Liston; Kelly Elder

2006-01-01

An intermediate-complexity, quasi-physically based, meteorological model (MicroMet) has been developed to produce high-resolution (e.g., 30-m to 1-km horizontal grid increment) atmospheric forcings required to run spatially distributed terrestrial models over a wide variety of landscapes. The following eight variables, required to run most terrestrial models, are...

Impacts of high resolution data on traveler compliance levels in emergency evacuation simulations

DOE PAGES

Lu, Wei; Han, Lee D.; Liu, Cheng; ...

2016-05-05

In this article, we conducted a comparison study of evacuation assignment based on Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) and high resolution LandScan USA Population Cells (LPC) with detailed real world roads network. A platform for evacuation modeling built on high resolution population distribution data and activity-based microscopic traffic simulation was proposed. This platform can be extended to any cities in the world. The results indicated that evacuee compliance behavior affects evacuation efficiency with traditional TAZ assignment, but it did not significantly compromise the performance with high resolution LPC assignment. The TAZ assignment also underestimated the real travel time during evacuation. Thismore » suggests that high data resolution can improve the accuracy of traffic modeling and simulation. The evacuation manager should consider more diverse assignment during emergency evacuation to avoid congestions.« less

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Convective System in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, A. E.; Jablonowski, C.

2017-12-01

Warm season precipitation over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) follows a well observed diurnal pattern of variability, peaking at night-time, due to the eastward propagation of mesoscale convection systems that develop over the eastern slopes of the Rockies in the late afternoon. While most climate models are unable to adequately capture the organization of convection and characteristic pattern of precipitation over this region, models with high enough resolution to explicitly resolve convection show improvement. However, high resolution simulations are computationally expensive and, in the case of regional climate models, are subject to boundary conditions. Newly developed variable resolution global climate models strike a balance between the benefits of high-resolution regional climate models and the large-scale dynamics of global climate models and low computational cost. Recently developed parameterizations that are insensitive to the model grid scale provide a way to improve model performance. Here, we present an evaluation of the newly available Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization scheme in a suite of variable-resolution CESM simulations with resolutions ranging from 110 km to 7 km within a regionally refined region centered over the SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Simulations utilize the hindcast approach developed by the Department of Energy's Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) for the assessment of climate models. We limit our evaluation to a single mesoscale convective system that passed over the region on May 24, 2008. The effects of grid-resolution on the timing and intensity of precipitation, as well as, on the transition from shallow to deep convection are assessed against ground-based observations from the SGP ARM site, satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis.

High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

2004-01-01

High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

The influence of international medical electives on career preference for primary care and rural practice.

PubMed

Law, Iain R; Walters, Lucie

2015-11-11

Previous studies have demonstrated a correlation between medical students who undertake international medical electives (IMEs) in resource poor settings and their reported career preference for primary care in underserved areas such as rural practice. This study examines whether a similar correlation exists in the Australian medical school context. Data was extracted from the Medical Schools Outcomes Database (MSOD) of Australian medical students that completed commencing student and exit questionnaires between 2006 and 2011. Student responses were categorized according to preferred training program and preferred region of practice at commencement. The reported preferences at exit of students completing IMEs in low and middle income countries (LMIC) were compared to those completing electives in high income countries (HIC). The effect of elective experience for students expressing a preference for primary care at commencement was non-significant, with 40.32 % of LMIC and 42.11 % of HIC students maintaining a preference for primary care. Similarly there were no significant changes following LMIC electives for students expressing a preference for specialist training at commencement with 11.81 % of LMIC and 10.23 % of HIC students preferring primary care at exit. The effect of elective experience for students expressing a preference for rural practice at commencement was non-significant, with 41.51 % of LMIC and 49.09 % of HIC students preferring rural practice at exit. Similarly there were no significant changes following LMIC electives for students expressing a preference for urban practice at commencement, with 7.84 % of LMIC and 6.70 % of HIC students preferring rural practice at exit. This study did not demonstrate an association between elective experience in resource poor settings and a preference for primary care or rural practice. This suggests that the previously observed correlation between LMIC electives and interest in primary care in disadvantaged communities is likely dependent on student and elective program characteristics and supports the need for further research and critical examination of elective programs at Australian medical schools.

International electives in neurology training

PubMed Central

Lyons, Jennifer L.; Coleman, Mary E.; Engstrom, John W.

2014-01-01

Objective: To ascertain the current status of global health training and humanitarian relief opportunities in US and Canadian postgraduate neurology programs. Background: There is a growing interest among North American trainees to pursue medical electives in low- and middle-income countries. Such training opportunities provide many educational and humanitarian benefits but also pose several challenges related to organization, human resources, funding, and trainee and patient safety. The current support and engagement of neurology postgraduate training programs for trainees to pursue international rotations is unknown. Methods: A survey was distributed to all program directors in the United States and Canada (December 2012–February 2013) through the American Academy of Neurology to assess the training opportunities, institutional partnerships, and support available for international neurology electives. Results: Approximately half of responding programs (53%) allow residents to pursue global health–related electives, and 11% reported that at least 1 trainee participated in humanitarian relief during training (survey response rate 61%, 143/234 program directors). Canadian programs were more likely to allow residents to pursue international electives than US programs (10/11, 91% vs 65/129, 50%, p = 0.023). The number of trainees participating in international electives was low: 0%–9% of residents (55% of programs) and 10%–19% of residents (21% of programs). Lack of funding was the most commonly cited reason for residents not participating in global health electives. If funding was available, 93% of program directors stated there would be time for residents to participate. Most program directors (75%) were interested in further information on global health electives. Conclusions: In spite of high perceived interest, only half of US neurology training programs include international electives, mostly due to a reported lack of funding. By contrast, the majority of Canadian programs that responded allow international electives, likely due to clearer guidelines from the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada compared to the Accreditation Council of Graduate Medical Education. However, the number of both Canadian and US neurology trainees venturing abroad remains a minority. Most program directors are interested in learning more information related to global health electives for neurology residents. PMID:24319037

International electives in neurology training: a survey of US and Canadian program directors.

PubMed

Lyons, Jennifer L; Coleman, Mary E; Engstrom, John W; Mateen, Farrah J

2014-01-14

To ascertain the current status of global health training and humanitarian relief opportunities in US and Canadian postgraduate neurology programs. There is a growing interest among North American trainees to pursue medical electives in low- and middle-income countries. Such training opportunities provide many educational and humanitarian benefits but also pose several challenges related to organization, human resources, funding, and trainee and patient safety. The current support and engagement of neurology postgraduate training programs for trainees to pursue international rotations is unknown. A survey was distributed to all program directors in the United States and Canada (December 2012-February 2013) through the American Academy of Neurology to assess the training opportunities, institutional partnerships, and support available for international neurology electives. Approximately half of responding programs (53%) allow residents to pursue global health-related electives, and 11% reported that at least 1 trainee participated in humanitarian relief during training (survey response rate 61%, 143/234 program directors). Canadian programs were more likely to allow residents to pursue international electives than US programs (10/11, 91% vs 65/129, 50%, p = 0.023). The number of trainees participating in international electives was low: 0%-9% of residents (55% of programs) and 10%-19% of residents (21% of programs). Lack of funding was the most commonly cited reason for residents not participating in global health electives. If funding was available, 93% of program directors stated there would be time for residents to participate. Most program directors (75%) were interested in further information on global health electives. In spite of high perceived interest, only half of US neurology training programs include international electives, mostly due to a reported lack of funding. By contrast, the majority of Canadian programs that responded allow international electives, likely due to clearer guidelines from the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada compared to the Accreditation Council of Graduate Medical Education. However, the number of both Canadian and US neurology trainees venturing abroad remains a minority. Most program directors are interested in learning more information related to global health electives for neurology residents.

Collision cross section measurements for biomolecules within a high-resolution FT-ICR cell: theory.

PubMed

Guo, Dan; Xin, Yi; Li, Dayu; Xu, Wei

2015-04-14

In this study, an energetic hard-sphere ion-neutral collision model was proposed to bridge-link ion collision cross section (CCS) with the image current collected from a high-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance (FT-ICR) cell. By investigating the nonlinear effects induced by high-order electric fields and image charge forces, the energetic hard-sphere collision model was validated through experiments. Suitable application regions for the energetic hard-sphere collision model, as well as for the conventional Langevin and hard-sphere collision models, were also discussed. The energetic hard-sphere collision model was applied in the extraction of ion CCSs from high-resolution FT-ICR mass spectra. Discussions in the present study also apply to FT-Orbitraps and FT-quadrupole ion traps.

Radio frequency (RF) microwave components and subsystems using loaded ridge waveguide

DOEpatents

Kang, Yoon W.

2013-08-20

A waveguide having a non-conductive material with a high permeability (.mu., .mu..sub.r for relative permeability) and/or a high permittivity (.di-elect cons., .di-elect cons..sub.r for relative permittivity) positioned within a housing. When compared to a hollow waveguide, the waveguide of this invention, reduces waveguide dimensions by .varies..mu. ##EQU00001## The waveguide of this invention further includes ridges which further reduce the size and increases the usable frequency bandwidth.

NREL: International Activities - Pakistan Resource Maps

Science.gov Websites

. The high-resolution (1-km) annual wind power maps were developed using a numerical modeling approach along with NREL's empirical validation methodology. The high-resolution (10-km) annual and seasonal KB) | High-Res (ZIP 281 KB) 40-km Resolution Annual Maps (Direct) Low-Res (JPG 156 KB) | High-Res

Photoionization Rate of Atomic Oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, R. R.; McLaughlin, B. M.; Warren, H. P.; Bishop, J.

2006-05-01

Accurate knowledge of the photoionization rate of atomic oxygen is important for the study and understanding of the ionospheres and emission processes of terrestrial, planetary, and cometary atmospheres. Past calculations of the photoionization rate have been carried out at various spectral resolutions, but none were at sufficiently high resolution to accommodate accidental resonances between solar emission lines and highly structured auto-ionization features in the photoionization cross section. A new version of the NRLEUV solar spectral irradiance model (at solar minimum) and a new model of the O photoionization cross section enable calculations at very high spectral resolution. We find unattenuated photoionization rates computed at 0.001 nm resolution are larger than those at moderate resolution (0.1 nm) by amounts approaching 20%. Allowing for attenuation in the terrestrial atmosphere, we find differences in photoionization rates computed at high and moderate resolution to vary with altitude, especially below 200 km where deviations of plus or minus 20% occur between the two cases.

Elective neck management for high-grade salivary gland carcinoma.

PubMed

Herman, Michael P; Werning, John W; Morris, Christopher G; Kirwan, Jessica M; Amdur, Robert J; Mendenhall, William M

2013-01-01

To determine whether patients with clinically node negative (cNo) high grade salivary gland carcinomas benefit from an elective neck dissection prior to postoperative radiotherapy (RT). Between October 1964 and October 2009, 59 previously untreated patients with cNo high-grade salivary gland carcinomas (squamous cell carcinomas were excluded) were treated with curative intent using elective neck dissection (END; n=41), or elective neck irradiation (ENI; n=18) at the University of Florida College of Medicine (Gainesville, FL). All patients underwent resection of the primary cancer followed by postoperative RT. The median follow-up period was 5.2years (range, 0.3-34years). Occult metastases were found in 18 (44%) of the 41 patients in the END group. There were 4 recurrences (10%) in the END group and 0 recurrence in the ENI group. Neck control rates at 5years were: END, 90%; ENI, 100%; and overall, 93% (p=0.1879). Cause-specific survival was 94% in the ENI group, 84% in the END group, and 86% for all patients (p=0.6998). There were 3 reported grade 3 or 4 toxicities. Two patients had a postoperative fistula and one patient had a grade 4 osteoradionecrosis that required a partial mandibulectomy. Patients with cNo high grade salivary gland carcinomas who are planned to undergo surgery and postoperative RT likely do not benefit from a planned neck dissection. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High-resolution surface analysis for extended-range downscaling with limited-area atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei; Fernig, David

2014-12-01

High-resolution limited-area model (LAM) simulations are frequently employed to downscale coarse-resolution objective analyses over a specified area of the globe using high-resolution computational grids. When LAMs are integrated over extended time frames, from months to years, they are prone to deviations in land surface variables that can be harmful to the quality of the simulated near-surface fields. Nudging of the prognostic surface fields toward a reference-gridded data set is therefore devised in order to prevent the atmospheric model from diverging from the expected values. This paper presents a method to generate high-resolution analyses of land-surface variables, such as surface canopy temperature, soil moisture, and snow conditions, to be used for the relaxation of lower boundary conditions in extended-range LAM simulations. The proposed method is based on performing offline simulations with an external surface model, forced with the near-surface meteorological fields derived from short-range forecast, operational analyses, and observed temperatures and humidity. Results show that the outputs of the surface model obtained in the present study have potential to improve the near-surface atmospheric fields in extended-range LAM integrations.

High-dose senna compared with conventional PEG-ES lavage as bowel preparation for elective colonoscopy: a prospective, randomized, investigator-blinded trial.

PubMed

Radaelli, Franco; Meucci, Gianmichele; Imperiali, Gianni; Spinzi, Giancarlo; Strocchi, Enrico; Terruzzi, Vittorio; Minoli, Giorgio

2005-12-01

To compare the efficacy and patient acceptance of an oral high dose of senna to conventional polyethylene glycol-electrolyte lavage solution (PEG-ES) in adults undergoing elective colonoscopy. Consecutive outpatients referred for elective colonoscopy were prospectively randomly assigned to receive, the day before the procedure, either 24 tablets of 12 mg senna, divided into two doses at 1 p.m. and 9 p.m. (senna group, n=191), or standard 4-L PEG-ES (PEG-ES group, n=92). The overall quality of colon cleansing (primary outcome measure) and cleansing in the right colon were evaluated using the Aronchick scoring scale (1=excellent to 4=inadequate) by the investigator/endoscopist who was blinded to the treatment assignment. Patient acceptance and the safety of the preparation were assessed by a nurse, using a structured questionnaire covering compliance with the dosing, overall tolerance of the preparation (1=none or mild discomfort to 4=severely distressing), and adverse events. The quality of colon cleansing, overall tolerance of the preparation, and compliance were significantly better with senna; overall cleansing was excellent or good in 90.6% of patients in the senna group and in 79.7% in the PEG-ES group (p= 0.003). The percentage of procedures rescheduled because of insufficient colon cleansing was 7.3% in the PEG-ES group and 2.6% in the senna group (p=0.035). Multivariate logistic regression modeling showed the PEG-ES preparation as negative independent predictor of unsuccessful bowel cleansing. The incidence of adverse reactions was similar in the two groups; patients who received senna experienced significantly less nausea and vomiting, but more abdominal pain. An oral high dose of senna is a valid alternative to standard PEG-ES for outpatient colonoscopy preparation.

P-CSI v1.0, an accelerated barotropic solver for the high-resolution ocean model component in the Community Earth System Model v2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xiaomeng; Tang, Qiang; Tseng, Yuheng; Hu, Yong; Baker, Allison H.; Bryan, Frank O.; Dennis, John; Fu, Haohuan; Yang, Guangwen

2016-11-01

In the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the ocean model is computationally expensive for high-resolution grids and is often the least scalable component for high-resolution production experiments. The major bottleneck is that the barotropic solver scales poorly at high core counts. We design a new barotropic solver to accelerate the high-resolution ocean simulation. The novel solver adopts a Chebyshev-type iterative method to reduce the global communication cost in conjunction with an effective block preconditioner to further reduce the iterations. The algorithm and its computational complexity are theoretically analyzed and compared with other existing methods. We confirm the significant reduction of the global communication time with a competitive convergence rate using a series of idealized tests. Numerical experiments using the CESM 0.1° global ocean model show that the proposed approach results in a factor of 1.7 speed-up over the original method with no loss of accuracy, achieving 10.5 simulated years per wall-clock day on 16 875 cores.

Reconsideration of the costs of convenience: quality, operational, and fiscal strategies to minimize elective labor induction.

PubMed

Simpson, Kathleen Rice

2010-01-01

Elective induction of labor is at an all-time high in the United States despite known associated risks. It can lead to birth of an infant too early, a long labor, exposure to a high-alert medication with its potential side effects, unnecessary cesarean birth, and maternal and neonatal morbidity. There is a cascade of interventions related to elective induction such as an intravenous line, continuous electronic fetal monitoring, confinement to bed, amniotomy, pharmacologic labor stimulating agents, parental pain medications, and regional anesthesia, each with their own set of potential complications and risk of iatrogenic harm. These risks apply to all women having the procedure, however for nulliparous women before 41 weeks of gestation with an unfavorable cervix, the main risk is cesarean birth after unsuccessful labor induction with the potential for maternal and neonatal morbidity and increased healthcare costs. When cesarean occurs, subsequent births are likely to be via cesarean as well. Elective labor induction before 41 weeks is inconsistent with quality perinatal care, and performance of this unnecessary procedure should be minimized. Convenience as the reason for labor induction is contrary to a culture focused on patient safety. A review of current evidence, followed by changes in practice, is warranted to support the safest care possible during labor and birth. Various strategies to reduce the rate of elective induction in the United States are presented.

Policy making opportunities in the United States Senate and House of Representatives: an examination of seniority and gridlock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCurdy, K. M.

2017-12-01

A policy arc is traced by a series of election outcomes, and it is the remaining representatives from past elections with their ideological stances and their parliamentary experiences that is predictive of whether public policy positions are sustained, modulated, or abandoned by the legislature. Two unusual legislative elections, the 1974 and 1994 races for the United States House of Representatives, can provide additional understanding and evidence for the necessary and sufficient conditions for policy innovation. Contrasting the magnitude of the House and Senate majorities along with their respective seniority patterns in the subsequent twenty years from these transformative elections shows the differing conditions that produces policy innovation or gridlock. Legislative actions clearly operate on two temporal planes, with consequences for the election that is coming months hence as well as for governance that occurs over years or multiple decades. Elections have policy consequences that are moderated by formal institutional rules and informal norms of behavior. Members of a class of legislators plus their nearest election class neighbors can influence the shape and content of legislation for twenty years. These effects can be reinforced or mitigated by the results from several election outcomes. But the effects of the initial election, Et0 remain noticeable decades later. This pattern is particularly persistent when freshmen in the House of Representatives hold more than 20 percent of seats in the chamber. These traces of seniority are easily disrupted so their persistence is a signal that should not be ignored for policy entrepreneurs and those wishing to influence public policy. Gridlock should thus be seen as indicative of a facies change in public policy that reflects the changes in society being represented in the legislature, not as an end game in the shorter run election cycle. Legislative gridlock is a state in the public policy process that is ridiculed and lampooned throughout the world. Yet gridlock and its antecedents are important to furthering our understanding of the policy process and perhaps allowing us to establish causality in legislative decision making models.

Comparison of Three Contemporary Risk Scores for Mortality Following Elective Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

PubMed Central

Grant, S.W.; Hickey, G.L.; Carlson, E.D.; McCollum, C.N.

2014-01-01

Objective/background A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. Methods The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Results The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76–0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65–0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. Conclusion All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. PMID:24837173

Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

PubMed

Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N

2014-07-01

A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright © 2014 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function - A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M.; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ginoux, Paul

2017-01-01

A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 0203 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.

Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function -A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model

PubMed Central

Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M.; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Ginoux, Paul

2018-01-01

A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 02-03 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events. PMID:29632432

Development of High-Resolution Dynamic Dust Source Function -A Case Study with a Strong Dust Storm in a Regional Model.

PubMed

Kim, Dongchul; Chin, Mian; Kemp, Eric M; Tao, Zhining; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Ginoux, Paul

2017-06-01

A high-resolution dynamic dust source has been developed in the NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to improve the existing coarse static dust source. In the new dust source map, topographic depression is in 1-km resolution and surface bareness is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The new dust source better resolves the complex topographic distribution over the Western United States where its magnitude is higher than the existing, coarser resolution static source. A case study is conducted with an extreme dust storm that occurred in Phoenix, Arizona in 02-03 UTC July 6, 2011. The NU-WRF model with the new high-resolution dynamic dust source is able to successfully capture the dust storm, which was not achieved with the old source identification. However the case study also reveals several challenges in reproducing the time evolution of the short-lived, extreme dust storm events.

Applying an Empirical Hydropathic Forcefield in Refinement May Improve Low-Resolution Protein X-Ray Crystal Structures

PubMed Central

Koparde, Vishal N.; Scarsdale, J. Neel; Kellogg, Glen E.

2011-01-01

Background The quality of X-ray crystallographic models for biomacromolecules refined from data obtained at high-resolution is assured by the data itself. However, at low-resolution, >3.0 Å, additional information is supplied by a forcefield coupled with an associated refinement protocol. These resulting structures are often of lower quality and thus unsuitable for downstream activities like structure-based drug discovery. Methodology An X-ray crystallography refinement protocol that enhances standard methodology by incorporating energy terms from the HINT (Hydropathic INTeractions) empirical forcefield is described. This protocol was tested by refining synthetic low-resolution structural data derived from 25 diverse high-resolution structures, and referencing the resulting models to these structures. The models were also evaluated with global structural quality metrics, e.g., Ramachandran score and MolProbity clashscore. Three additional structures, for which only low-resolution data are available, were also re-refined with this methodology. Results The enhanced refinement protocol is most beneficial for reflection data at resolutions of 3.0 Å or worse. At the low-resolution limit, ≥4.0 Å, the new protocol generated models with Cα positions that have RMSDs that are 0.18 Å more similar to the reference high-resolution structure, Ramachandran scores improved by 13%, and clashscores improved by 51%, all in comparison to models generated with the standard refinement protocol. The hydropathic forcefield terms are at least as effective as Coulombic electrostatic terms in maintaining polar interaction networks, and significantly more effective in maintaining hydrophobic networks, as synthetic resolution is decremented. Even at resolutions ≥4.0 Å, these latter networks are generally native-like, as measured with a hydropathic interactions scoring tool. PMID:21246043

Aerosol Optical Depth over Europe: Evaluation of the CALIOPE air quality modelling system with direct-sun AERONET observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basart, Sara; Pay, María. Teresa; Pérez, Carlos; Cuevas, Emilio; Jorba, Oriol; Piot, Matthias; María Baldasano, Jose

2010-05-01

In the frame of the CALIOPE project (Baldasano et al., 2008), the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) currently operates a high-resolution air quality forecasting system based on daily photochemical forecasts in Europe (12km x 12km resolution) with the WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ modelling system (http://www.bsc.es/caliope) and desert dust forecasts over Southern Europe with BSC-DREAM8b (Pérez et al., 2006; http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM). High resolution simulations and forecasts are possible through their implementation on MareNostrum supercomputer at BSC-CNS. As shown in previous air quality studies (e.g. Rodríguez et al., 2001; Jiménez-Guerrero et al., 2008), the contribution of desert dust on particulate matter levels in Southern Europe is remarkable due to its proximity to African desert dust sources. When considering only anthropogenic emissions (Baldasano et al., 2008) and the current knowledge about aerosol physics and chemistry, chemistry-transport model simulations underestimate the PM10 concentrations by 30-50%. As a first approach, the natural dust contribution from BSC-DREAM8b is on-line added to the anthropogenic aerosol output of CMAQ. The aim of the present work is the quantitative evaluation of the WRF-ARW/HERMES/ CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b forecast system to simulate the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over Europe. The performance of the modelled AOD has been quantitatively evaluated with discrete and categorical (skill scores) statistics by a comparison to direct-sun AERONET observations for 2004. The contribution of different types of aerosols will be analyzed by means of the O'Neill fine mode AOD products (O'Neill et al., 2001). A previous aerosol characterization of AERONET data was performed (Basart et al., 2009) in order to discriminate the different aerosol source contributions within the study region. The results indicate a remarkable improvement in the discrete and skill-scores evaluation (accuracy, critical success index and probability of detection) of AOD when using CMAQ+DREAM8b compared to CMAQ-alone simulations. An accurate analysis of the relative contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and desert dust to AOD over Europe and their seasonality will be also presented. References: Baldasano J.M, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, O. Jorba, C. Pérez, E. López, P. Güereca, F. Martin, M. García-Vivanco, I. Palomino, X. Querol, M. Pandolfi, M.J. Sanz and J.J. Diéguez: "CALIOPE: An operational air quality forecasting system for the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands and Canary Islands- First annual evaluation and ongoing developments", Adv. Sci. and Res., 2: 89-98, 2008. Baldasano J.M., L. P. Güereca, E. López, S. Gassó, P. Jimenez-Guerrero. "Development of a high resolution (1 km x 1 km, 1 h) emission model for Spain: the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMES)". Atmospheric Environment, 42: 7215-7233 doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.07.026, 2008. Basart, S., Pérez, C., Cuevas, E., Baldasano, J. M. and Gobbi, G. P. "Aerosol characterization in Northern Africa, Northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean Basin and Middle East from direct-sun AERONET observations", Atmos. Chem. Phys.., 9, 7707-7745, 2009. Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Pérez, C., Jorba, O. and Baldasano, J. M. "Contribution of Saharan dust in an integrated air quality system and its on-line assessment", Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(3), 2008. O'Neill, N. T., Dubovik, O., and Eck, T. F.: A modified Angstrom coefficient for the characterization of sub-micron aerosols, App. Opt., 40(14), 2368-2375, 2001. Pérez, C., Nickovic, S., Pejanovic, G., Baldasano, J. M. and Ozsoy, E. "Interactive dust-radiation modeling: A step to improve weather forecasts", Geophys. Res., 11(D16206),doi:10.1029/2005JD006717, 2006. Rodríguez, S., Querol, X., Alastuey, A., Kallos, G. and Kakaliagou, O. "Saharan dust contributions to PM10 and TSP levels in Southern and Eastern Spain", Atmos. Environ., 35, 2433-2447, 2001.

Enhancing SMAP Soil Moisture Retrievals via Superresolution Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beale, K. D.; Ebtehaj, A. M.; Romberg, J. K.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is a key state variable that modulates land-atmosphere interactions and its high-resolution global scale estimates are essential for improved weather forecasting, drought prediction, crop management, and the safety of troop mobility. Currently, NASA's Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) satellite provides a global picture of soil moisture variability at a resolution of 36 km, which is prohibitive for some hydrologic applications. The goal of this research is to enhance the resolution of SMAP passive microwave retrievals by a factor of 2 to 4 using modern superresolution techniques that rely on the knowledge of high-resolution land surface models. In this work, we explore several super-resolution techniques including an empirical dictionary method, a learned dictionary method, and a three-layer convolutional neural network. Using a year of global high-resolution land surface model simulations as training set, we found that we are able to produce high-resolution soil moisture maps that outperform the original low-resolution observations both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, on a patch-by-patch basis we are able to produce estimates of high-resolution soil moisture maps that improve on the original low-resolution patches by on average 6% in terms of mean-squared error, and 14% in terms of the structural similarity index.

A description and evaluation of an air quality model nested within global and regional composition-climate models using MetUM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, Lucy S.; Dalvi, Mohit; Folberth, Gerd; McInnes, Rachel N.; Agnew, Paul; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Savage, Nicholas H.; Tilbee, Marie

2017-11-01

There is a clear need for the development of modelling frameworks for both climate change and air quality to help inform policies for addressing these issues simultaneously. This paper presents an initial attempt to develop a single modelling framework, by introducing a greater degree of consistency in the meteorological modelling framework by using a two-step, one-way nested configuration of models, from a global composition-climate model (GCCM) (140 km resolution) to a regional composition-climate model covering Europe (RCCM) (50 km resolution) and finally to a high (12 km) resolution model over the UK (AQUM). The latter model is used to produce routine air quality forecasts for the UK. All three models are based on the Met Office's Unified Model (MetUM). In order to better understand the impact of resolution on the downscaling of projections of future climate and air quality, we have used this nest of models to simulate a 5-year period using present-day emissions and under present-day climate conditions. We also consider the impact of running the higher-resolution model with higher spatial resolution emissions, rather than simply regridding emissions from the RCCM. We present an evaluation of the models compared to in situ air quality observations over the UK, plus a comparison against an independent 1 km resolution gridded dataset, derived from a combination of modelling and observations, effectively producing an analysis of annual mean surface pollutant concentrations. We show that using a high-resolution model over the UK has some benefits in improving air quality modelling, but that the use of higher spatial resolution emissions is important to capture local variations in concentrations, particularly for primary pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. For secondary pollutants such as ozone and the secondary component of PM10, the benefits of a higher-resolution nested model are more limited and reasons for this are discussed. This study highlights the point that the resolution of models is not the only factor in determining model performance - consistency between nested models is also important.

Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

Assimilation of SMOS (and SMAP) Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Stano, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Goal: Accurate, high-resolution (approx.3 km) soil moisture in near-real time. Situational awareness (drought assessment, flood and fire threat). Local modeling applications (to improve sfc-PBL exchanges) Method: Assimilate satellite soil moisture retrievals into a land surface model. Combines high-resolution geophysical model data with latest satellite observations.

The Relationship between Racial Identity and Perceived Significance of the Election of President Barack Obama among African American Mothers

PubMed Central

Franco, Marisa; Smith-Bynum, Mia

2016-01-01

African American women’s racial identity is a major determinant for how they interpret the world around them, yet there is little research examining how specific aspects of racial identity are linked with attitudes about an event that has been highly significant for African-Americans: the election of President Barack Obama. The current study examined the relationship between African American mothers’ racial identity and their perceived significance of the election of President Barack Obama as an indicator of reduced systemic and actual racism for African Americans, using a sample of 110 African American mothers residing in a Northeastern metropolitan area. Results revealed that racial centrality and assimilation positively predicted perceived significance of President Obama’s election for diminishing racism. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:28163660

High-Resolution Remote Sensing Image Building Extraction Based on Markov Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Yan, L.; Chang, Y.; Gong, L.

2018-04-01

With the increase of resolution, remote sensing images have the characteristics of increased information load, increased noise, more complex feature geometry and texture information, which makes the extraction of building information more difficult. To solve this problem, this paper designs a high resolution remote sensing image building extraction method based on Markov model. This method introduces Contourlet domain map clustering and Markov model, captures and enhances the contour and texture information of high-resolution remote sensing image features in multiple directions, and further designs the spectral feature index that can characterize "pseudo-buildings" in the building area. Through the multi-scale segmentation and extraction of image features, the fine extraction from the building area to the building is realized. Experiments show that this method can restrain the noise of high-resolution remote sensing images, reduce the interference of non-target ground texture information, and remove the shadow, vegetation and other pseudo-building information, compared with the traditional pixel-level image information extraction, better performance in building extraction precision, accuracy and completeness.

New utility for an old tool: can a simple gait speed test predict ambulatory surgical discharge outcomes?

PubMed

Odonkor, Charles A; Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Shelley, Kirk H; Silverman, David G; Barash, Paul G

2013-10-01

The primary aims of this study were to design prediction models based on a functional marker (preoperative gait speed) to predict readiness for home discharge time of 90 mins or less and to identify those at risk for unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery. This prospective observational cohort study evaluated all patients scheduled for elective ambulatory surgery. Home discharge readiness and unplanned admissions were the primary outcomes. Independent variables included preoperative gait speed, heart rate, and total anesthesia time. The relationship between all predictors and each primary outcome was determined in separate multivariable logistic regression models. After adjustment for covariates, gait speed with adjusted odds ratio of 3.71 (95% confidence interval, 1.21-11.26), P = 0.02, was independently associated with early home discharge readiness of 90 mins or less. Importantly, gait speed dichotomized as greater or less than 1 m/sec predicted unplanned admissions, with odds ratio of 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.76, P = 0.008) for those with speeds 1 m/sec or greater in comparison with those with speeds less than 1 m/sec. In a separate model, history of cardiac surgery with adjusted odds ratio of 7.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.34-24.41; P = 0.001) was independently associated with unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery, when other covariates were held constant. This study demonstrates the use of novel prediction models based on gait speed testing to predict early home discharge and to identify those patients at risk for unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery.

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-22

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements. Astronaut Tracy Dyson, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey, and MSFC Director pose with proclamation signed by Governor Ivey declaring February 22, 2108, as NASA Day

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-22

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements. NASA Trained Alabama Lead Teachers, (LtoR) Jacquelyn Adams, Arlinda Davis,Timothy Johnson,Laura Crowe demonstrate how rocket boosters work.

Challenges in the development of very high resolution Earth System Models for climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasch, Philip J.; Xie, Shaocheng; Ma, Po-Lun; Lin, Wuyin; Wan, Hui; Qian, Yun

2017-04-01

The authors represent the 20+ members of the ACME atmosphere development team. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has, like many other organizations around the world, identified the need for an Earth System Model capable of rapid completion of decade to century length simulations at very high (vertical and horizontal) resolution with good climate fidelity. Two years ago DOE initiated a multi-institution effort called ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy) to meet this an extraordinary challenge, targeting a model eventually capable of running at 10-25km horizontal and 20-400m vertical resolution through the troposphere on exascale computational platforms at speeds sufficient to complete 5+ simulated years per day. I will outline the challenges our team has encountered in development of the atmosphere component of this model, and the strategies we have been using for tuning and debugging a model that we can barely afford to run on today's computational platforms. These strategies include: 1) evaluation at lower resolutions; 2) ensembles of short simulations to explore parameter space, and perform rough tuning and evaluation; 3) use of regionally refined versions of the model for probing high resolution model behavior at less expense; 4) use of "auto-tuning" methodologies for model tuning; and 5) brute force long climate simulations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

This poster is based on the paper of the same name, presented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July18, 2016. Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solarmore » modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions - native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level - and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Mapping evapotranspiration with high resolution aircraft imagery over vineyards using one and two source modeling schemes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thermal and multispectral remote sensing data from low-altitude aircraft can provide high spatial resolution necessary for sub-field (= 10 m) and plant canopy (= 1 m) scale evapotranspiration (ET) monitoring. In this study, high resolution aircraft sub-meter scale thermal infrared and multispectral...

Multiframe super resolution reconstruction method based on light field angular images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shubo; Yuan, Yan; Su, Lijuan; Ding, Xiaomin; Wang, Jichao

2017-12-01

The plenoptic camera can directly obtain 4-dimensional light field information from a 2-dimensional sensor. However, based on the sampling theorem, the spatial resolution is greatly limited by the microlenses. In this paper, we present a method of reconstructing high-resolution images from the angular images. First, the ray tracing method is used to model the telecentric-based light field imaging process. Then, we analyze the subpixel shifts between the angular images extracted from the defocused light field data and the blur in the angular images. According to the analysis above, we construct the observation model from the ideal high-resolution image to the angular images. Applying the regularized super resolution method, we can obtain the super resolution result with a magnification ratio of 8. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed observation model.

High-dose, single-bolus eptifibatide: a safe and cost-effective alternative to conventional glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor use for elective coronary interventions.

PubMed

Fischell, Tim A; Attia, Tamer; Rane, Santosh; Salman, Waddah

2006-10-01

Adjunctive pharmacotherapy with eptifibatide, a glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa inhibitor, as an intravenous bolus followed by infusion has been shown to improve outcomes in elective coronary interventions (PCI). However, bleeding complications and costs have limited the routine adoption of this regimen. The goal of this study was to examine the safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of high-dose, single-bolus eptifibatide, without post-intervention infusion, in "real-world" patients undergoing elective PCI. We studied 401 patients with stable and unstable angina who were treated with a high-dose (20 mg), single bolus of eptifibatide plus heparin prior to the start of elective PCI. Exclusion criteria included recent MI, stenting of bypass graft(s), rotational atherectomy and/or brachytherapy. The primary study endpoints were major adverse clinical events (MACE), defined as the in-hospital and 30-day incidence of death from any cause, Q-wave or non-Q-wave MI, repeat target vessel revascularization and/or major bleeding complications. Relevant demographic and procedural characteristics included mean age: 66.4 +/- 11.2; male gender: 242/401 (61%); number of vessels treated per patient: 1.46 +/- 0.42; and number of stents deployed per patient: 1.82 +/- 0.65. In-hospital non-Q-wave MI (CPK and/or CPK-MB > 3 times the upper limit of normal) occurred in 7/401 patients (1.75%) and MACE was 2.25%. Major bleeding complications were seen in 2/401 patients (0.49%). There were 4 additional MACE events at 30-day follow up (total MACE and bleeding = 3.25%). The average anticoagulation cost was 66 dollars/patient. Intravenous eptifibatide, administered as a high-dose (20 mg) single-vial bolus, is a safe, effective and highly cost-effective alternative to the conventional regimens of bolus plus prolonged intravenous GP IIb/IIIa inhibitor infusion for patients undergoing elective PCI.

Modeling Above-Ground Biomass Across Multiple Circum-Arctic Tundra Sites Using High Spatial Resolution Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juutinen, Sari; Aurela, Mika; Virtanen, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Biomass is one of the central bio-geophysical variables in Earth observation for tracking plant productivity, and flow of carbon, nutrients, and water. Most of the satellite based biomass mapping exercises in Arctic environments have been performed by using rather coarse spatial resolution data, e.g. Landsat and AVHRR which have spatial resolutions of 30 m and >1 km, respectively. While the coarse resolution images have high temporal resolution, they are incapable of capturing the fragmented nature of tundra environment and fine-scale changes in vegetation and carbon exchange patterns. Very high spatial resolution (VHSR, spatial resolution 0.5-2 m) satellite images have the potential to detect environmental variables with an ecologically sound spatial resolution. The usage of VHSR images has, nevertheless, been modest so far in biomass modeling in the Arctic. Our objectives were to use VHSR for predicting above ground biomass in tundra landscapes, evaluate whether a common predictive model can be applied across circum-Arctic tundra and peatland sites having different types of vegetation, and produce knowledge on distribution of plant functional types (PFT) in these sites. Such model development is dependent on ground-based surveys of vegetation with the same spatial resolution and extent with the VHSR images. In this study, we conducted ground-based surveys of vegetation composition and biomass in four different arctic tundra or peatland areas located in Russia, Canada, and Finland. First, we sorted species into PFTs and developed PFT-specific models to predict biomass on the basis of non-destructive measurements (cover, height). Second, we predicted overall biomass on landscape scale by combinations of single bands and vegetation indices of very high resolution satellite images (QuickBird or WorldView-2 images of the eight sites). We compared area-specific empirical regression models and common models that were applied across all sites. We found that NDVI was usually the highest scoring spectral indices in explaining biomass distribution with good explanatory power. Furthermore, models which had more than one explanatory variable had higher explanatory power than models with a single index. The dissimilarity between common and site-specific model estimates was, however, high and data indicates that variation in vegetation properties and its impact on spectral reflectance needs to be acknowledged. Our work produced knowledge on above-ground biomass distribution and contribution of PFTs across circum-Arctic low-growth landscapes and will contribute to developing space-borne vegetation monitoring schemes utilizing VHSR satellite images.

Visualization of Stereoscopic Anatomic Models of the Paranasal Sinuses and Cervical Vertebrae from the Surgical and Procedural Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Jian; Smith, Andrew D.; Khan, Majid A.; Sinning, Allan R.; Conway, Marianne L.; Cui, Dongmei

2017-01-01

Recent improvements in three-dimensional (3D) virtual modeling software allows anatomists to generate high-resolution, visually appealing, colored, anatomical 3D models from computed tomography (CT) images. In this study, high-resolution CT images of a cadaver were used to develop clinically relevant anatomic models including facial skull, nasal…

A third world international health elective for U.S. medical students: the 25-year experience of the State University of New York, Downstate Medical Center.

PubMed

Imperato, Pascal James

2004-10-01

The Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health at the State University of New York, Downstate Medical Center instituted a 6-8 weeks third world international health elective for fourth year medical students in 1980. Since that time, some 217 students have participated in a score of third world countries. However, the most popular sites have been India, Kenya and Thailand. The purposes of this elective are to provide fourth year medical students with an opportunity to observe and study the structure and functions of a health care delivery system in a third world country, to provide medical service, and to have a cross-cultural experience. The emphasis in this elective is on public health, preventive medicine and primary care. There are high levels of student competition for this elective. However, interest in it has been affected by world events such as the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and the recent outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia. Recent annual applications for this elective have been twenty-five and more out of a class of two hundred students. Annual acceptance rates vary considerably, ranging from as low as 27.2% in 1995-1996 to a high of 81.8% in 1987-1988. Careful screening, including an examination of academic records and personal interviews, has resulted in the selection of highly mature, adaptable, and dedicated students who overall have performed well at overseas sites. Student rated satisfaction levels with this elective are extremely high, with most rating it the best experience of their medical school years. Students undergo extensive preparation prior to going overseas. This includes individual health and safety issues, travel and lodging, and the nature of the host country culture, health care system, and assignment site. Our students are especially experienced in cross-cultural understanding because of the unusual diversity of the patients they treat in Brooklyn, and the ethnic diversity of local hospital staff and the medical school class. This Brooklyn experience in cross-cultural understanding has been cited by many participants as having been the best preparation for functioning in a foreign culture. In the late 1990s, we revised our procedures concerning health preparations so as to address the risk of HIV/AIDS and other blood borne diseases. In addition, we also adopted an Agreement and Release form containing 15 provisions requiring risk and responsibility assumption on the part of the student participants. The Alumni Fund of the College of Medicine has steadfastly supported this elective with both a philosophical commitment and financial grants to help defray travel costs. In 1998, Joshua H. Weiner of the class of 1941 created a sizeable endowment in the Alumni Fund of the College of Medicine to support students participating in this elective. In 2001, Sonja K. Binkhorst, Assistant Professor of Psychiatry at the Downstate Medical Center, arranged for some financial support for women medical students through the LSK Foundation and the American Medical Women's Association. During the years that this elective has been offered, overseas preceptors have willingly given of their time and institutional resources to make these experiences available and meaningful for students.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of pediatric inguinal hernia repair in Uganda.

PubMed

Eeson, Gareth; Birabwa-Male, Doreen; Pennington, Mark; Blair, Geoffrey K

2015-02-01

Surgically treatable diseases contribute approximately 11% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) worldwide yet they remain a neglected public health priority in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Pediatric inguinal hernia is the most common congenital abnormality in newborns and a major cause of morbidity and mortality yet elective repair remains largely unavailable in LMICs. This study is aimed to determine the costs and cost-effectiveness of pediatric inguinal hernia repair (PIHR) in a low-resource setting. Medical costs of consecutive elective PIHRs were recorded prospectively at two centers in Uganda. Decision modeling was used to compare two different treatment scenarios (adoption of PIHR and non-adoption) from a provider perspective. A Markov model was constructed to estimate health outcomes under each scenario. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results in the base case analysis was tested in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome of interest was cost per DALY averted by the intervention. Sixty-nine PIHRs were performed in 65 children (mean age 3.6 years). Mean cost per procedure was $86.68 US (95% CI 83.1-90.2 USD) and averted an average of 5.7 DALYs each. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $12.41 per DALY averted. The probability of cost-effectiveness was 95% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $35 per averted DALY. Results were robust to sensitivity analysis under all considered scenarios. Elective PIHR is highly cost-effective for the treatment and prevention of complications of hernia disease even in low-resource settings. PIHR should be prioritized in LMICs alongside other cost-effective interventions.

Estimating Vegetation Rainfall Interception Using Remote Sensing Observations at Very High Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Y.; Zhao, P.; Hong, Y.; Fan, W.; Yan, B.; Xie, H.

2017-12-01

Abstract: As an important compont of evapotranspiration, vegetation rainfall interception is the proportion of gross rainfall that is intercepted, stored and subsequently evaporated from all parts of vegetation during or following rainfall. Accurately quantifying the vegetation rainfall interception at a high resolution is critical for rainfall-runoff modeling and flood forecasting, and is also essential for understanding its further impact on local, regional, and even global water cycle dynamics. In this study, the Remote Sensing-based Gash model (RS-Gash model) is developed based on a modified Gash model for interception loss estimation using remote sensing observations at the regional scale, and has been applied and validated in the upper reach of the Heihe River Basin of China for different types of vegetation. To eliminate the scale error and the effect of mixed pixels, the RS-Gash model is applied at a fine scale of 30 m with the high resolution vegetation area index retrieved by using the unified model of bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF-U) for the vegetation canopy. Field validation shows that the RMSE and R2 of the interception ratio are 3.7% and 0.9, respectively, indicating the model's strong stability and reliability at fine scale. The temporal variation of vegetation rainfall interception loss and its relationship with precipitation are further investigated. In summary, the RS-Gash model has demonstrated its effectiveness and reliability in estimating vegetation rainfall interception. When compared to the coarse resolution results, the application of this model at 30-m fine resolution is necessary to resolve the scaling issues as shown in this study. Keywords: rainfall interception; remote sensing; RS-Gash analytical model; high resolution

The case against primary endoscopic realignment of pelvic fracture urethral injuries

PubMed Central

Tausch, Timothy J.; Morey, Allen F.

2015-01-01

Objectives To review previous reports and present our experience on the outcomes after treating pelvic fracture urethral injuries (PFUIs) with primary endoscopic realignment (PER) vs. placing a suprapubic tube (SPT) with elective bulbomembranous anastomotic urethroplasty (BMAU). Methods We reviewed previous reports and identified articles that reported outcomes after PER vs. SPT and elective BMAU for patients who sustained PFUIs. We also present our institutional experience of treating patients who were referred after undergoing either form of treatment. Results The success rates for PER after PFUI are wide-ranging (11–86%), with variable definitions for a successful outcome. At our institution, for patients treated by SPT/BMAU, the mean time to a definitive resolution of stenosis was dramatically shorter (6 months, range 3–15) than for those treated with PER (122 months, range 4–574; P < 0.01). The vast majority of patients treated by PER required multiple endoscopic urethral interventions (median 4, range 1–36;P < 0.01) and/or had various other adverse events that were rare among the SPT/BMAU group (14/17, 82%, vs. 2/23, 9%;P < 0.05). Conclusion While PER occasionally results in urethral patency with no need for further intervention, the risk of delay in definitive treatment and the potential for adverse events have led to a preference for SPT and elective BMAU at our institution. PMID:26019972

HESS Opinions: The need for process-based evaluation of large-domain hyper-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke A.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Torfs, Paul J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-03-01

A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting on applications of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution. We identified six time concepts in hydrological models, which all impact the model results and conclusions. Process-based model evaluation is particularly relevant when models are applied at hyper-resolution, where stakeholders expect credible results both at a high spatial and temporal resolution.

HESS Opinions: The need for process-based evaluation of large-domain hyper-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, L. A.; Teuling, A. J.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.

2015-12-01

A meta-analysis on 192 peer-reviewed articles reporting applications of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model in a distributed way reveals that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has increased over the years, while the calibration and validation time interval has remained unchanged. We argue that the calibration and validation time interval should keep pace with the increase in spatial resolution in order to resolve the processes that are relevant at the applied spatial resolution. We identified six time concepts in hydrological models, which all impact the model results and conclusions. Process-based model evaluation is particularly relevant when models are applied at hyper-resolution, where stakeholders expect credible results both at a high spatial and temporal resolution.

Teachers' Controversial Issue Decisions Related to Race, Gender, and Religion during the 2008 Presidential Election

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journell, Wayne

2011-01-01

Using the 2008 Presidential Election as a case of curricular controversy, the author describes how six high school government teachers responded to the racial, gender, and religious diversity included on the presidential tickets of the two major political parties. Teachers had to decide whether the issue of Americans challenging the tradition of…

Superstar or Scholar? African American Male Youths' Perceptions of Opportunity in a Time of Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conchas, Gilberto Q.; Lin, Alex R.; Oseguera, Leticia; Drake, Sean J.

2015-01-01

Through a Multiple Marginality Framework, this exploratory case study highlights how African American male youth in an urban high school setting perceive the opportunity structure during the historic election of the first African American President. Youth optimism generated by Obama's election gives students a sense of hope despite the persistent…

A Nongraded Phase Elective Senior High English Curriculum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

South Bend Community School Corp., IN.

The course content in this nongraded phase elective curriculum is classified into Phase 1, designed for students who find reading, writing, and speaking difficult, Phase 2 for students who need to improve and refine basic skills at a somewhat slower pace, Phase 3 for those who have an average command of basic language skills and want to advance at…

Stakes High for States in Fall Votes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeil, Michele

2006-01-01

This article reports how the stakes are getting higher for the various states as the 2006 state elections are approaching this fall. This article also discusses how the future of education policy will be heavily influenced by the votes cast in the November elections. Even with the heightened federal role under the No Child Left Behind Act, state…

Teaching the 2008 Presidential Election at Three Demographically Diverse Schools: An Exercise in Neoliberal Governmentality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journell, Wayne

2011-01-01

This article describes the disparity in political instruction found in six government classes from three demographically diverse high schools during the 2008 Presidential Election. In general, students from working-class households or those in lower-level classes were rarely given opportunities to discuss politics at a national level or engage in…

Forensic analysis of Venezuelan elections during the Chávez presidency.

PubMed

Jiménez, Raúl; Hidalgo, Manuel

2014-01-01

Hugo Chávez dominated the Venezuelan electoral landscape since his first presidential victory in 1998 until his death in 2013. Nobody doubts that he always received considerable voter support in the numerous elections held during his mandate. However, the integrity of the electoral system has come into question since the 2004 Presidential Recall Referendum. From then on, different sectors of society have systematically alleged electoral irregularities or biases in favor of the incumbent party. We have carried out a thorough forensic analysis of the national-level Venezuelan electoral processes held during the 1998-2012 period to assess these complaints. The second-digit Benford's law and two statistical models of vote distributions, recently introduced in the literature, are reviewed and used in our case study. In addition, we discuss a new method to detect irregular variations in the electoral roll. The outputs obtained from these election forensic tools are examined taking into account the substantive context of the elections and referenda under study. Thus, we reach two main conclusions. Firstly, all the tools uncover anomalous statistical patterns, which are consistent with election fraud from 2004 onwards. Although our results are not a concluding proof of fraud, they signal the Recall Referendum as a turning point in the integrity of the Venezuelan elections. Secondly, our analysis calls into question the reliability of the electoral register since 2004. In particular, we found irregular variations in the electoral roll that were decisive in winning the 50% majority in the 2004 Referendum and in the 2012 Presidential Elections.

Forensic Analysis of Venezuelan Elections during the Chávez Presidency

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Raúl; Hidalgo, Manuel

2014-01-01

Hugo Chávez dominated the Venezuelan electoral landscape since his first presidential victory in 1998 until his death in 2013. Nobody doubts that he always received considerable voter support in the numerous elections held during his mandate. However, the integrity of the electoral system has come into question since the 2004 Presidential Recall Referendum. From then on, different sectors of society have systematically alleged electoral irregularities or biases in favor of the incumbent party. We have carried out a thorough forensic analysis of the national-level Venezuelan electoral processes held during the 1998–2012 period to assess these complaints. The second-digit Benford's law and two statistical models of vote distributions, recently introduced in the literature, are reviewed and used in our case study. In addition, we discuss a new method to detect irregular variations in the electoral roll. The outputs obtained from these election forensic tools are examined taking into account the substantive context of the elections and referenda under study. Thus, we reach two main conclusions. Firstly, all the tools uncover anomalous statistical patterns, which are consistent with election fraud from 2004 onwards. Although our results are not a concluding proof of fraud, they signal the Recall Referendum as a turning point in the integrity of the Venezuelan elections. Secondly, our analysis calls into question the reliability of the electoral register since 2004. In particular, we found irregular variations in the electoral roll that were decisive in winning the 50% majority in the 2004 Referendum and in the 2012 Presidential Elections. PMID:24971462

High resolution modeling in urban hydrology: comparison between two modeling approaches and their sensitivity to high rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Bompard, Philippe; Schertzer, Daniel

2015-04-01

Urban water management is becoming increasingly complex, due to the rapid increase of impervious areas, and the potential effects of climate change. The large amount of water generated in a very short period of time and the limited capacity of sewer systems increase the vulnerability of urban environments to flooding risk and make it necessary to implement specific devices in order to handle the volume of water generated. This complex situation in urban environments makes the use of hydrological models as well as the implementation of more accurate and reliable tools for flow and rainfall measurements essential for a good pluvial network management, the use of decision support tools such as real-time radar forecasting system, the developpement of general public communication and warning systems, and the implementation of management strategy participate on limiting the flood damages. The very high spatial variability characteristic of urban environments makes it necessary to integrate the variability of physical properties and precipitation at fine scales in modeling processes, suggesting a high resolution modeling approach. In this paper we suggest a comparison between two modeling approaches and their sensitivity to small-scale rainfall variability on a 2.15 km2 urban area located in the County of Val-de-Marne (South-East of Paris, France). The first model used in this study is CANOE, which is a semi-distributed model widely used in France by practitioners for urban hydrology and urban water management. Two configurations of this model are be used in this study, the first one integrate 9 sub-catchments with sizes range from (1ha to 76ha), in the second configuration, the spatial resolution of this model has been improved with 45 sub-catchments with sizes range from (1ha to 14ha), the aim is to see how the semi-distributed model resolution affects it sensitivity to rainfall variability. The second model is Multi-Hydro fully distributed model developed at the Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. It is an interacting core between open source software packages, each of them representing a portion of the water cycle in urban environment. Multi-Hydro has been set up at two resolutions, 10m and 5m. The validation of these two models is performed using 5 rainfall events that occurred between 2010 and 2013. Radar data comes from the Météo-France radar mosaic and the resolution is 1 km in space and 5 min in time. Raingauge and flow measurements data comes from the General Council of Val-de-Marne County. In this validation part, the hydrological responses given by two models and the different configurations are compared to flow measurements. It appears that CANOE gives better results than Multi-Hydro model, especially when using raingauge data. For some events, we noticed that model responses given when using raingauge and radar data are different, suggesting a sign of sensitivity to the spatial variability of rainfall. 10 high-resolution rainfall events are used in the second part to study the sensitivity of each modeling approach to high rainfall variability. Radar data was available at four spatial resolutions (100, 200, 500 and 1000m) and two temporal resolutions (1min and 5min), for each event, two rainfall directions (parallel and perpendicular) are used, meaning that 16 hydrological responses are simulated for each event and the variability within it analyzed. First results suggest that the fully distributed model is more sensitive to high rainfall variability than the semi-distributed one, the increase of both hydrological model spatial resolution improves their sensitivity to rainfall variability. This study highlights some technical challenges facing the high-resolution modeling, especially the difficulty to obtain reliable input data at an acceptable resolution and also the high computation time noticed particularly for the semi-distributed model making it difficult to use it in real time. The authors greatly acknowledge partial financial support from the project RainGain (http://www.raingain.eu) of the EU Interreg program.

A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees

2017-04-01

Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.

High definition clouds and precipitation for climate prediction -results from a unified German research initiative on high resolution modeling and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauser, F.

2013-12-01

We present results from the German BMBF initiative 'High Definition Cloud and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction -HD(CP)2'. This initiative addresses most of the problems that are discussed in this session in one, unified approach: cloud physics, convection, boundary layer development, radiation and subgrid variability are approached in one organizational framework. HD(CP)2 merges both observation and high performance computing / model development communities to tackle a shared problem: how to improve the understanding of the most important subgrid-scale processes of cloud and precipitation physics, and how to utilize this knowledge for improved climate predictions. HD(CP)2 is a coordinated initiative to: (i) realize; (ii) evaluate; and (iii) statistically characterize and exploit for the purpose of both parameterization development and cloud / precipitation feedback analysis; ultra-high resolution (100 m in the horizontal, 10-50 m in the vertical) regional hind-casts over time periods (3-15 y) and spatial scales (1000-1500 km) that are climatically meaningful. HD(CP)2 thus consists of three elements (the model development and simulations, their observational evaluation and exploitation/synthesis to advance CP prediction) and its first three-year phase has started on October 1st 2012. As a central part of HD(CP)2, the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) has been carried out in spring 2013. In this campaign, high resolution measurements with a multitude of instruments from all major centers in Germany have been carried out in a limited domain, to allow for unprecedented resolution and precision in the observation of microphysics parameters on a resolution that will allow for evaluation and improvement of ultra-high resolution models. At the same time, a local area version of the new climate model ICON of the Max Planck Institute and the German weather service has been developed that allows for LES-type simulations on high resolutions on limited domains. The advantage of modifying an existing, evolving climate model is to share insights from high resolution runs directly with the large-scale modelers and to allow for easy intercomparison and evaluation later on. Within this presentation, we will give a short overview on HD(CP)2 , show results from the observation campaign HOPE and the LES simulations of the same domain and conditions and will discuss how these will lead to an improved understanding and evaluation background for the efforts to improve fast physics in our climate model.

Coupling high-resolution hydraulic and hydrologic models for flash flood forecasting and inundation mapping in urban areas - A case study for the City of Fort Worth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazari, B.; Seo, D.; Cannon, A.

2013-12-01

With many diverse features such as channels, pipes, culverts, buildings, etc., hydraulic modeling in urban areas for inundation mapping poses significant challenges. Identifying the practical extent of the details to be modeled in order to obtain sufficiently accurate results in a timely manner for effective emergency management is one of them. In this study we assess the tradeoffs between model complexity vs. information content for decision making in applying high-resolution hydrologic and hydraulic models for real-time flash flood forecasting and inundation mapping in urban areas. In a large urban area such as the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW), there exists very large spatial variability in imperviousness depending on the area of interest. As such, one may expect significant sensitivity of hydraulic model results to the resolution and accuracy of hydrologic models. In this work, we present the initial results from coupling of high-resolution hydrologic and hydraulic models for two 'hot spots' within the City of Fort Worth for real-time inundation mapping.

A downscaling scheme for atmospheric variables to drive soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schomburg, A.; Venema, V.; Lindau, R.; Ament, F.; Simmer, C.

2010-09-01

For driving soil-vegetation-transfer models or hydrological models, high-resolution atmospheric forcing data is needed. For most applications the resolution of atmospheric model output is too coarse. To avoid biases due to the non-linear processes, a downscaling system should predict the unresolved variability of the atmospheric forcing. For this purpose we derived a disaggregation system consisting of three steps: (1) a bi-quadratic spline-interpolation of the low-resolution data, (2) a so-called `deterministic' part, based on statistical rules between high-resolution surface variables and the desired atmospheric near-surface variables and (3) an autoregressive noise-generation step. The disaggregation system has been developed and tested based on high-resolution model output (400m horizontal grid spacing). A novel automatic search-algorithm has been developed for deriving the deterministic downscaling rules of step 2. When applied to the atmospheric variables of the lowest layer of the atmospheric COSMO-model, the disaggregation is able to adequately reconstruct the reference fields. Applying downscaling step 1 and 2, root mean square errors are decreased. Step 3 finally leads to a close match of the subgrid variability and temporal autocorrelation with the reference fields. The scheme can be applied to the output of atmospheric models, both for stand-alone offline simulations, and a fully coupled model system.

The costs of electoral fraud: establishing the link between electoral integrity, winning an election, and satisfaction with democracy

PubMed Central

Fortin-Rittberger, Jessica; Harfst, Philipp; Dingler, Sarah C.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Previous research has shown that voters’ perception of electoral fairness has an impact on their attitudes and behaviors. However, less research has attempted to link objective measurements of electoral integrity on voters’ attitudes about the democratic process. Drawing on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Quality of Elections Data, we investigate whether cross-national differences in electoral integrity have significant influences on citizens’ level of satisfaction with democracy. We hypothesize that higher levels of observed electoral fraud will have a negative impact on evaluations of the democratic process, and that this effect will be mediated by a respondent’s status as a winner or loser of an election. The article’s main finding is that high levels of electoral fraud are indeed linked to less satisfaction with democracy. However, we show that winning only matters in elections that are conducted in an impartial way. The moment elections start to display the telltale signs of manipulation and malpractice, winning and losing no longer have different effects on voter’s levels of satisfaction with democracy. PMID:28824703

Web-based elective courses for medical students: an example in pain.

PubMed

Puljak, Livia; Sapunar, Damir

2011-06-01

Online learning is an efficient new educational method that is able to link teachers with geographically dispersed students and capture the interest of students with interactive materials. Our objective was to describe curricula of new Web-based electives about pain for undergraduate medical education. We created three interactive Web-based elective courses about pain targeted to medical and dental students. "The Puzzle of Pain" course introduced basic concepts of pain and neurobiology of pain. The humanities-based curriculum of "Empathy and Pain" taught students about emotional aspects of pain and empathetic responses. "The Cochrane Library and Pain" course introduced students to the concept of evidence-based medicine, critical appraisal of the literature, and the hierarchy of evidence in medicine. We measured program effectiveness with a pretest/posttest instrument and student satisfaction survey. Mean knowledge scores increased significantly after the program and overall evaluations were positive. Delivering the pain electives for medical students in an online format was an efficient educational method, with high student satisfaction scores. Medical educators should consider online electives for medical students in pain studies as well as in other content areas. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prophylactic Antibiotics for Elective Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Smith, J Patrick; Samra, Navdeep S; Ballard, David H; Moss, Jonathan B; Griffen, Forrest D

2018-04-01

Surgical site infections with elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy are less frequent and less severe, leading some to suggest that prophylactic antibiotics (PA) are no longer indicated. We compared the incidence of surgical site infections before and after an institutional practice change of withholding PA for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Between May 7, 2013, and March 11, 2015, no PA were given to patients selected for elective cholecystectomy by two surgeons at a single center. The only patients excluded were those who received antibiotics before surgery for any reason. All others, including those at high risk for infection, were included. The incidence and severity of infections were compared with historical controls treated with prophylaxis by the same two surgeons from November 6, 2011, to January 13, 2013. There were 268 patients in the study group and 119 patients in the control group. Infection occurred in 3.0 per cent in the study group compared with 0.9 per cent in the controls (P = 0.29). All infections were mild except one. Based on these data, the routine use of PA for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy is not supported.

The costs of electoral fraud: establishing the link between electoral integrity, winning an election, and satisfaction with democracy.

PubMed

Fortin-Rittberger, Jessica; Harfst, Philipp; Dingler, Sarah C

2017-07-03

Previous research has shown that voters' perception of electoral fairness has an impact on their attitudes and behaviors. However, less research has attempted to link objective measurements of electoral integrity on voters' attitudes about the democratic process. Drawing on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Quality of Elections Data, we investigate whether cross-national differences in electoral integrity have significant influences on citizens' level of satisfaction with democracy. We hypothesize that higher levels of observed electoral fraud will have a negative impact on evaluations of the democratic process, and that this effect will be mediated by a respondent's status as a winner or loser of an election. The article's main finding is that high levels of electoral fraud are indeed linked to less satisfaction with democracy. However, we show that winning only matters in elections that are conducted in an impartial way. The moment elections start to display the telltale signs of manipulation and malpractice, winning and losing no longer have different effects on voter's levels of satisfaction with democracy.

A Variable Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model for a Megasite at the North Slope of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennis, L.; Roesler, E. L.; Guba, O.; Hillman, B. R.; McChesney, M.

2016-12-01

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) climate research facility has three siteslocated on the North Slope of Alaska (NSA): Barrrow, Oliktok, and Atqasuk. These sites, incombination with one other at Toolik Lake, have the potential to become a "megasite" whichwould combine observational data and high resolution modeling to produce high resolutiondata products for the climate community. Such a data product requires high resolutionmodeling over the area of the megasite. We present three variable resolution atmosphericgeneral circulation model (AGCM) configurations as potential alternatives to stand-alonehigh-resolution regional models. Each configuration is based on a global cubed-sphere gridwith effective resolution of 1 degree, with a refinement in resolution down to 1/8 degree overan area surrounding the ARM megasite. The three grids vary in the size of the refined areawith 13k, 9k, and 7k elements. SquadGen, NCL, and GIMP are used to create the grids.Grids vary based upon the selection of areas of refinement which capture climate andweather processes that may affect a proposed NSA megasite. A smaller area of highresolution may not fully resolve climate and weather processes before they reach the NSA,however grids with smaller areas of refinement have a significantly reduced computationalcost compared with grids with larger areas of refinement. Optimal size and shape of thearea of refinement for a variable resolution model at the NSA is investigated.

Lesson Plan on Comparative Political Systems: Compare and Contrast the Presidential Election System of the USA to the Parliamentary Election System of Hungary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connell, Daniel W.

This lesson describes the current government of Hungary and its underlying political and electoral systems. The lesson is structured with: (1) background on the parliamentary model of government, political parties, and Hungary's unique electoral system; (2) a summary of the six major political parties in Hungary and voter information for the 1990…

Is there a role for neck dissection in T1 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma? The UCLA experience.

PubMed

Peng, Kevin A; Chu, Alan C; Lai, Chi; Grogan, Tristan; Elashoff, David; Abemayor, Elliot; St John, Maie A

2014-01-01

We sought to examine prognostic and therapeutic implications, including cost-effectiveness, of elective neck dissection in the management of patients with clinically-determined T1N0 oral tongue carcinoma. A retrospective review of patients with cT1N0 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma who underwent surgical extirpation of primary tumor, with or without elective neck dissection, at UCLA Medical Center from 1990 to 2009 was performed. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess effects of variables on time to first loco-regional recurrence. A healthcare costs analysis of elective neck dissection was performed by querying the SEER-Medicare linked database. Of the 123 patients identified with cT1N0 squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue, 88 underwent elective neck dissection at the time of tumor resection while 35 did not. For all patients, disease-free survival at 3, 5, and 10 years was 93%, 82%, and 79%. Of the 88 patients undergoing elective neck dissection, 20 (23%) demonstrated occult metastatic disease. Male gender, tumor size, perineural invasion, and occult metastatic disease were individually associated with higher rates of loco-regional recurrence. There was no significant difference in loco-regional recurrence between those who underwent elective neck dissection and those who did not (HR=0.76, p=0.52). On cost analysis, neck dissection was not associated with any significant difference in Medicare payments. The high rate of occult metastasis (23%) following elective neck dissection, which did not confer additional healthcare costs, leads to the recommendation of elective neck dissection in patients with cT1N0 oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A medical student elective promoting humanism, communication skills, complementary and alternative medicine and physician self-care: an evaluation of the HEART program.

PubMed

Dossett, Michelle L; Kohatsu, Wendy; Nunley, William; Mehta, Darshan; Davis, Roger B; Phillips, Russell S; Yeh, Gloria

2013-01-01

In 2002 the American Medical Student Association (AMSA) created a fourth-year medical student elective known as the Humanistic Elective in alternative medicine, Activism, and Reflective Transformation (HEART) that provided the opportunity for students to explore humanism in medicine, self-care, complementary and alternative medicine modalities, communication, activism, and community building in a four-week immersion experience. The educational effects of this elective, and whether it has met its stated goals, are unknown. The authors conducted a web-based, cross-sectional survey of the first eight cohorts of HEART graduates in 2010. Survey questions assessed respondents' demographics and perspectives on the educational impact of the elective. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and qualitative analyses were guided by grounded theory. Of 168 eligible alumni, 122 (73%) completed the survey. The majority were female (70%), age ≤35 (77%) years, and trained in primary care specialties (66%). Half were attendings in practice. The majority of respondents felt the elective taught professionalism (89%) and communication skills (92%) well or very well. The majority highly agreed that the elective helped them better cope with stress during residency training (80%), taught them self-care skills (75%), and improved their ability to empathize and connect with patients (71%). Qualitative analysis of the personal and professional impact of the elective identified twelve common themes with self-discovery, self-care, and collegial development/community most frequently cited. The majority of HEART graduates endorse learning important skills and benefiting from the experience both personally and professionally. Aspects of the HEART curriculum may help training programs teach professionalism and improve trainee well-being. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On a hiding to nothing? Assessing the corporate governance of hospital and health services in New Zealand 1993-1998.

PubMed

Barnett, P; Perkins, R; Powell, M

2001-01-01

In New Zealand the governance of public sector hospital and health services has changed significantly over the past decade. For most of the century hospitals had been funded by central government grants but run by locally elected boards. In 1989 a reforming Labour government restructured health services along managerialist lines, including changing governance structures so that some area health board members were government appointments, with the balance elected by the community. More market oriented reform under a new National government abolished this arrangement and introduced (1993) a corporate approach to the management of hospitals and related services. The hospitals were established as limited liability companies under the Companies Act. This was an explicitly corporate model and, although there was some modification of arrangements following the election of a more politically moderate centre-right coalition government in 1996, the corporate model was largely retained. Although significant changes occurred again after the election of a Labour government in 1999, the corporate governance experience in New Zealand health services is one from which lessons can, nevertheless, be learnt. This paper examines aspects of the performance and process of corporate governance arrangements for public sector health services in New Zealand, 1993-1998.

A comparison of GLAS SAT and NMC high resolution NOSAT forecasts from 19 and 11 February 1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.

1979-01-01

A subjective comparison of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) high resolution model forecasts is presented. Two cases where NMC's operational model in 1976 had serious difficulties in forecasting for the United States were examined. For each of the cases, the GLAS model forecasts from initial conditions which included satellite sounding data were compared directly to the NMC higher resolution model forecasts, from initial conditions which excluded the satellite data. The comparison showed that the GLAS satellite forecasts significantly improved upon the current NMC operational model's predictions in both cases.

Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; ...

2010-01-01

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. Whilemore » this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.« less

Development, calibration, and sensitivity analyses of a high-resolution dissolved oxygen mass balance model for the northern Gulf of Mexico

EPA Science Inventory

A high-resolution dissolved oxygen mass balance model was developed for the Louisiana coastal shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico. GoMDOM (Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model) was developed to assist in evaluating the impacts of nutrient loading on hypoxia development and exte...

The southern high-resolution modeling consortium - a source for research and operational collaboration

Treesearch

Gary L. Achtemeier; Scott L. Goodrick; Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

The Southern High-Resolution Modeling Consortium (SHRMC) is one of five regional Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS) consortia established as part of the National Fire Plan. FCAMMS involves research and development activities collaborating across all land management agencies, NOAA, NASA, and Universities. These activities will support...

Assessing the competing roles of model resolution and meteorological forcing fidelity in hyperresolution simulations of snowpack and streamflow in the southern Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Barlage, M. J.; Sampson, K. M.; Yu, W.; Pan, L.; McCreight, J. L.; Howard, K.; Busto, J.; Deems, J. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrometeorological processes vary over comparatively short length scales in regions of complex terrain such as the southern Rocky Mountains. Changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and solar radiation can vary significantly across elevation gradients, terrain landform and land cover conditions throughout the region. Capturing such variability in hydrologic models can necessitate the utilization of so-called `hyper-resolution' spatial meshes with effective element spacings of less than 100m. However, it is often difficult to obtain meteorological forcings of high quality in such regions at those resolutions which can result in significant uncertainty in fundamental in hydrologic model inputs. In this study we examine the comparative influences of meteorological forcing data fidelity and spatial resolution on seasonal simulations of snowpack evolution, runoff and streamflow in a set of high mountain watersheds in southern Colorado. We utilize the operational, NOAA National Water Model configuration of the community WRF-Hydro system as a baseline and compare against it, additional model scenarios with differing specifications of meteorological forcing data, with and without topographic downscaling adjustments applied, with and without experimental high resolution radar derived precipitation estimates and with WRF-Hydro configurations of progressively finer spatial resolution. The results suggest significant influence from and importance of meteorological downscaling techniques in controlling spatial distributions of meltout and runoff timing. The use of radar derived precipitation exhibits clear sensitivity on hydrologic simulation skill compared with the use of coarser resolution, background precipitation analyses. Advantages and disadvantages of the utilization of progressively higher resolution model configurations both in terms of computational requirements and model fidelity are also discussed.

Enhancing GIS Capabilities for High Resolution Earth Science Grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, B. W.; Oehmke, R.; Li, P.; O'Kuinghttons, R.; Theurich, G.; DeLuca, C.

2017-12-01

Applications for high performance GIS will continue to increase as Earth system models pursue more realistic representations of Earth system processes. Finer spatial resolution model input and output, unstructured or irregular modeling grids, data assimilation, and regional coordinate systems present novel challenges for GIS frameworks operating in the Earth system modeling domain. This presentation provides an overview of two GIS-driven applications that combine high performance software with big geospatial datasets to produce value-added tools for the modeling and geoscientific community. First, a large-scale interpolation experiment using National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) catchments, a high resolution rectilinear CONUS grid, and the Earth System Modeling Framework's (ESMF) conservative interpolation capability will be described. ESMF is a parallel, high-performance software toolkit that provides capabilities (e.g. interpolation) for building and coupling Earth science applications. ESMF is developed primarily by the NOAA Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) group. The purpose of this experiment was to test and demonstrate the utility of high performance scientific software in traditional GIS domains. Special attention will be paid to the nuanced requirements for dealing with high resolution, unstructured grids in scientific data formats. Second, a chunked interpolation application using ESMF and OpenClimateGIS (OCGIS) will demonstrate how spatial subsetting can virtually remove computing resource ceilings for very high spatial resolution interpolation operations. OCGIS is a NESII-developed Python software package designed for the geospatial manipulation of high-dimensional scientific datasets. An overview of the data processing workflow, why a chunked approach is required, and how the application could be adapted to meet operational requirements will be discussed here. In addition, we'll provide a general overview of OCGIS's parallel subsetting capabilities including challenges in the design and implementation of a scientific data subsetter.

Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Tapio; Lan, Shiwei; Stuart, Andrew; Teixeira, João.

2017-12-01

Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from both and quantifies uncertainties. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to realize it.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Exploring the impacts of physics and resolution on aqua-planet simulations from a nonhydrostatic global variable-resolution modeling framework: IMPACTS OF PHYSICS AND RESOLUTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Chun; Leung, L. Ruby; Park, Sang-Hun

Advances in computing resources are gradually moving regional and global numerical forecasting simulations towards sub-10 km resolution, but global high resolution climate simulations remain a challenge. The non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) provides a global framework to achieve very high resolution using regional mesh refinement. Previous studies using the hydrostatic version of MPAS (H-MPAS) with the physics parameterizations of Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) found notable resolution dependent behaviors. This study revisits the resolution sensitivity using the non-hydrostatic version of MPAS (NH-MPAS) with both CAM4 and CAM5 physics. A series of aqua-planet simulations at global quasi-uniform resolutionsmore » ranging from 240 km to 30 km and global variable resolution simulations with a regional mesh refinement of 30 km resolution over the tropics are analyzed, with a primary focus on the distinct characteristics of NH-MPAS in simulating precipitation, clouds, and large-scale circulation features compared to H-MPAS-CAM4. The resolution sensitivity of total precipitation and column integrated moisture in NH-MPAS is smaller than that in H-MPAS-CAM4. This contributes importantly to the reduced resolution sensitivity of large-scale circulation features such as the inter-tropical convergence zone and Hadley circulation in NH-MPAS compared to H-MPAS. In addition, NH-MPAS shows almost no resolution sensitivity in the simulated westerly jet, in contrast to the obvious poleward shift in H-MPAS with increasing resolution, which is partly explained by differences in the hyperdiffusion coefficients used in the two models that influence wave activity. With the reduced resolution sensitivity, simulations in the refined region of the NH-MPAS global variable resolution configuration exhibit zonally symmetric features that are more comparable to the quasi-uniform high-resolution simulations than those from H-MPAS that displays zonal asymmetry in simulations inside the refined region. Overall, NH-MPAS with CAM5 physics shows less resolution sensitivity compared to CAM4. These results provide a reference for future studies to further explore the use of NH-MPAS for high-resolution climate simulations in idealized and realistic configurations.« less

Spatial Modeling and Uncertainty Assessment of Fine Scale Surface Processes Based on Coarse Terrain Elevation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasera, L. G.; Mariethoz, G.; Lane, S. N.

2017-12-01

Frequent acquisition of high-resolution digital elevation models (HR-DEMs) over large areas is expensive and difficult. Satellite-derived low-resolution digital elevation models (LR-DEMs) provide extensive coverage of Earth's surface but at coarser spatial and temporal resolutions. Although useful for large scale problems, LR-DEMs are not suitable for modeling hydrologic and geomorphic processes at scales smaller than their spatial resolution. In this work, we present a multiple-point geostatistical approach for downscaling a target LR-DEM based on available high-resolution training data and recurrent high-resolution remote sensing images. The method aims at generating several equiprobable HR-DEMs conditioned to a given target LR-DEM by borrowing small scale topographic patterns from an analogue containing data at both coarse and fine scales. An application of the methodology is demonstrated by using an ensemble of simulated HR-DEMs as input to a flow-routing algorithm. The proposed framework enables a probabilistic assessment of the spatial structures generated by natural phenomena operating at scales finer than the available terrain elevation measurements. A case study in the Swiss Alps is provided to illustrate the methodology.

Active patient decision making regarding nerve sparing during radical prostatectomy: a novel approach.

PubMed

Lavery, Hugh J; Prall, David N; Abaza, Ronney

2011-08-01

The motivation to preserve sexual function can vary widely among patients before prostatectomy. Increasing patient involvement may allow a more personalized experience and may improve satisfaction. We assessed a strategy of surgeon deference to patient choice in regard to nerve sparing to determine to what degree patients are rational actors and capable of active decision making. A total of 150 patients treated with prostatectomy participated in a standardized preoperative discussion regarding the concept of nerve sparing, extracapsular extension and the potential need for adjuvant radiation in the event of local recurrence. Each patient was given his nomogram predicted risk of extracapsular extension and then elected nerve sparing or nonnerve sparing. The corresponding procedure was performed unless grossly invasive disease was encountered. Of the 150 patients 109 chose nerve sparing (73%) and 41 chose nonnerve sparing (27%). In patients with a nomogram predicted risk of extracapsular extension less than 20%, 20% to 50% and greater than 50%, nerve sparing was elected by 88%, 41% and 25%, respectively. Patients with lower risks of extracapsular extension electing nonnerve sparing were older and had higher rates of erectile dysfunction. Empowering patients to decide on their nerve sparing status is a reasonable strategy that did not lead to a high rate of patients with a high risk of extracapsular extension electing nerve sparing. With proper counseling informed patients made reasonable decisions, and appeared to be conservative, prioritizing cancer control in the majority of instances where extracapsular extension risk was high. In addition, they may have been overly conservative in electing nonnerve sparing when the risk was low. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Pharmacy Elective Course on Creative Thinking, Innovation, and TED Talks.

PubMed

Cain, Jeff

2016-12-25

Objective. To implement and assess an elective course designed to enhance student creative thinking and presentation skills. Design. A two-credit elective course was developed that incorporated creative-thinking exercises, article discussions pertaining to creativity, TED Talk (TED Conferences, New York, NY) analyses, and presentation design and delivery exercises. Assessment. Assessment instruments included pre- and post-course Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT). A scoring rubric was developed and used to evaluate a final mock TED Talk presented to faculty and students. Course evaluations were also used to assess student experiences in the course. Students' TTCT verbal creativity scores increased significantly ( p <0.05) during the course and their mock TED Talk mean scores (135±6.4) out of 150 were rated highly. Conclusion. The outcomes from this elective course confirmed that pharmacy students could develop and present an original "idea worth sharing" using the TED Talk format.

A Pharmacy Elective Course on Creative Thinking, Innovation, and TED Talks

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objective. To implement and assess an elective course designed to enhance student creative thinking and presentation skills. Design. A two-credit elective course was developed that incorporated creative-thinking exercises, article discussions pertaining to creativity, TED Talk (TED Conferences, New York, NY) analyses, and presentation design and delivery exercises. Assessment. Assessment instruments included pre- and post-course Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT). A scoring rubric was developed and used to evaluate a final mock TED Talk presented to faculty and students. Course evaluations were also used to assess student experiences in the course. Students’ TTCT verbal creativity scores increased significantly (p<0.05) during the course and their mock TED Talk mean scores (135±6.4) out of 150 were rated highly. Conclusion. The outcomes from this elective course confirmed that pharmacy students could develop and present an original “idea worth sharing” using the TED Talk format. PMID:28179719

Detailed climate-change projections for urban land-use change and green-house gas increases for Belgium with COSMO-CLM coupled to TERRA_URB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole; Demuzere, Matthias

2016-04-01

Recent research clearly show that climate modelling at high resolution - which resolve the deep convection, the detailed orography and land-use including urbanization - leads to better modelling performance with respect to temperatures, the boundary-layer, clouds and precipitation. The increasing computational power enables the climate research community to address climate-change projections with higher accuracy and much more detail. In the framework of the CORDEX.be project aiming for coherent high-resolution micro-ensemble projections for Belgium employing different GCMs and RCMs, the KU Leuven contributes by means of the downscaling of EC-EARTH global climate model projections (provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands) to the Belgian domain. The downscaling is obtained with regional climate simulations at 12.5km resolution over Europe (CORDEX-EU domain) and at 2.8km resolution over Belgium (CORDEX.be domain) using COSMO-CLM coupled to urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB. This is done for the present-day (1975-2005) and future (2040 → 2070 and 2070 → 2100). In these high-resolution runs, both GHG changes (in accordance to RCP8.5) and urban land-use changes (in accordance to a business-as-usual urban expansion scenario) are taken into account. Based on these simulations, it is shown how climate-change statistics are modified when going from coarse resolution modelling to high-resolution modelling. The climate-change statistics of particular interest are the changes in number of extreme precipitation events and extreme heat waves in cities. Hereby, it is futher investigated for the robustness of the signal change between the course and high-resolution and whether a (statistical) translation is possible. The different simulations also allow to address the relative impact and synergy between the urban expansion and increased GHG on the climate-change statistics. Hereby, it is investigated for which climate-change statistics the urban heat island and urban expansion is relevant, and to what extent the urban expansion can be included in the coarse-to-high resolution translation.

Application of Classification Models to Pharyngeal High-Resolution Manometry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mielens, Jason D.; Hoffman, Matthew R.; Ciucci, Michelle R.; McCulloch, Timothy M.; Jiang, Jack J.

2012-01-01

Purpose: The authors present 3 methods of performing pattern recognition on spatiotemporal plots produced by pharyngeal high-resolution manometry (HRM). Method: Classification models, including the artificial neural networks (ANNs) multilayer perceptron (MLP) and learning vector quantization (LVQ), as well as support vector machines (SVM), were…

Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

High-resolution local gravity model of the south pole of the Moon from GRAIL extended mission data.

PubMed

Goossens, Sander; Sabaka, Terence J; Nicholas, Joseph B; Lemoine, Frank G; Rowlands, David D; Mazarico, Erwan; Neumann, Gregory A; Smith, David E; Zuber, Maria T

2014-05-28

We estimated a high-resolution local gravity field model over the south pole of the Moon using data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory's extended mission. Our solution consists of adjustments with respect to a global model expressed in spherical harmonics. The adjustments are expressed as gridded gravity anomalies with a resolution of 1/6° by 1/6° (equivalent to that of a degree and order 1080 model in spherical harmonics), covering a cap over the south pole with a radius of 40°. The gravity anomalies have been estimated from a short-arc analysis using only Ka-band range-rate (KBRR) data over the area of interest. We apply a neighbor-smoothing constraint to our solution. Our local model removes striping present in the global model; it reduces the misfit to the KBRR data and improves correlations with topography to higher degrees than current global models. We present a high-resolution gravity model of the south pole of the Moon Improved correlations with topography to higher degrees than global models Improved fits to the data and reduced striping that is present in global models.

High-resolution local gravity model of the south pole of the Moon from GRAIL extended mission data

PubMed Central

Goossens, Sander; Sabaka, Terence J; Nicholas, Joseph B; Lemoine, Frank G; Rowlands, David D; Mazarico, Erwan; Neumann, Gregory A; Smith, David E; Zuber, Maria T

2014-01-01

We estimated a high-resolution local gravity field model over the south pole of the Moon using data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory's extended mission. Our solution consists of adjustments with respect to a global model expressed in spherical harmonics. The adjustments are expressed as gridded gravity anomalies with a resolution of 1/6° by 1/6° (equivalent to that of a degree and order 1080 model in spherical harmonics), covering a cap over the south pole with a radius of 40°. The gravity anomalies have been estimated from a short-arc analysis using only Ka-band range-rate (KBRR) data over the area of interest. We apply a neighbor-smoothing constraint to our solution. Our local model removes striping present in the global model; it reduces the misfit to the KBRR data and improves correlations with topography to higher degrees than current global models. Key Points We present a high-resolution gravity model of the south pole of the Moon Improved correlations with topography to higher degrees than global models Improved fits to the data and reduced striping that is present in global models PMID:26074637

Structural studies of RNA-protein complexes: A hybrid approach involving hydrodynamics, scattering, and computational methods.

PubMed

Patel, Trushar R; Chojnowski, Grzegorz; Astha; Koul, Amit; McKenna, Sean A; Bujnicki, Janusz M

2017-04-15

The diverse functional cellular roles played by ribonucleic acids (RNA) have emphasized the need to develop rapid and accurate methodologies to elucidate the relationship between the structure and function of RNA. Structural biology tools such as X-ray crystallography and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance are highly useful methods to obtain atomic-level resolution models of macromolecules. However, both methods have sample, time, and technical limitations that prevent their application to a number of macromolecules of interest. An emerging alternative to high-resolution structural techniques is to employ a hybrid approach that combines low-resolution shape information about macromolecules and their complexes from experimental hydrodynamic (e.g. analytical ultracentrifugation) and solution scattering measurements (e.g., solution X-ray or neutron scattering), with computational modeling to obtain atomic-level models. While promising, scattering methods rely on aggregation-free, monodispersed preparations and therefore the careful development of a quality control pipeline is fundamental to an unbiased and reliable structural determination. This review article describes hydrodynamic techniques that are highly valuable for homogeneity studies, scattering techniques useful to study the low-resolution shape, and strategies for computational modeling to obtain high-resolution 3D structural models of RNAs, proteins, and RNA-protein complexes. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Virtual Study of Grid Resolution on Experiments of a Highly-Resolved Turbulent Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maisto, Pietro M. F.; Marshall, Andre W.; Gollner, Michael J.; Fire Protection Engineering Department Collaboration

2017-11-01

An accurate representation of sub-grid scale turbulent mixing is critical for modeling fire plumes and smoke transport. In this study, PLIF and PIV diagnostics are used with the saltwater modeling technique to provide highly-resolved instantaneous field measurements in unconfined turbulent plumes useful for statistical analysis, physical insight, and model validation. The effect of resolution was investigated employing a virtual interrogation window (of varying size) applied to the high-resolution field measurements. Motivated by LES low-pass filtering concepts, the high-resolution experimental data in this study can be analyzed within the interrogation windows (i.e. statistics at the sub-grid scale) and on interrogation windows (i.e. statistics at the resolved scale). A dimensionless resolution threshold (L/D*) criterion was determined to achieve converged statistics on the filtered measurements. Such a criterion was then used to establish the relative importance between large and small-scale turbulence phenomena while investigating specific scales for the turbulent flow. First order data sets start to collapse at a resolution of 0.3D*, while for second and higher order statistical moments the interrogation window size drops down to 0.2D*.

Super Resolution Imaging Applied to Scientific Images

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-01

norm has found favor in the image restoration community because it allows discontinuities in its solution. As opposed to the L2 norm it does not...Oxford University Press. 31) Malay Kumar Nema , S.Rakshit and S.Chaudhuri,”Edge Model Based High Resolution Image Genration”Indian Conference on...Society of America, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 572- 579, February 1994 37) M. Nema , S. Rakshit and S. Chaudhuri, ``Edge Model Based High Resolution Image

Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

Cloud-Based Tools to Support High-Resolution Modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N.; Nelson, J.; Swain, N.; Christensen, S.

2013-12-01

The majority of watershed models developed to support decision-making by water management agencies are simple, lumped-parameter models. Maturity in research codes and advances in the computational power from multi-core processors on desktop machines, commercial cloud-computing resources, and supercomputers with thousands of cores have created new opportunities for employing more accurate, high-resolution distributed models for routine use in decision support. The barriers for using such models on a more routine basis include massive amounts of spatial data that must be processed for each new scenario and lack of efficient visualization tools. In this presentation we will review a current NSF-funded project called CI-WATER that is intended to overcome many of these roadblocks associated with high-resolution modeling. We are developing a suite of tools that will make it possible to deploy customized web-based apps for running custom scenarios for high-resolution models with minimal effort. These tools are based on a software stack that includes 52 North, MapServer, PostGIS, HT Condor, CKAN, and Python. This open source stack provides a simple scripting environment for quickly configuring new custom applications for running high-resolution models as geoprocessing workflows. The HT Condor component facilitates simple access to local distributed computers or commercial cloud resources when necessary for stochastic simulations. The CKAN framework provides a powerful suite of tools for hosting such workflows in a web-based environment that includes visualization tools and storage of model simulations in a database to archival, querying, and sharing of model results. Prototype applications including land use change, snow melt, and burned area analysis will be presented. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1135482

Roi-Orientated Sensor Correction Based on Virtual Steady Reimaging Model for Wide Swath High Resolution Optical Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Y.; Jin, S.; Tian, Y.; Wang, M.

2017-09-01

To meet the requirement of high accuracy and high speed processing for wide swath high resolution optical satellite imagery under emergency situation in both ground processing system and on-board processing system. This paper proposed a ROI-orientated sensor correction algorithm based on virtual steady reimaging model for wide swath high resolution optical satellite imagery. Firstly, the imaging time and spatial window of the ROI is determined by a dynamic search method. Then, the dynamic ROI sensor correction model based on virtual steady reimaging model is constructed. Finally, the corrected image corresponding to the ROI is generated based on the coordinates mapping relationship which is established by the dynamic sensor correction model for corrected image and rigours imaging model for original image. Two experimental results show that the image registration between panchromatic and multispectral images can be well achieved and the image distortion caused by satellite jitter can be also corrected efficiently.

Course Outlines in Business of the Rumson-Fair Haven Senior Elective Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1976

The Rumson-Fair Haven Senior Elective Program was developed and implemented by students, faculty, and administrators over the three-year period from 1971 to 1974. The program offers high school students who complete graduation requirements in the first three years of the four-year program a combination of the following options for the senior year:…

Using Elections as Teachable Moments: A Randomized Evaluation of the Student Voices Civic Education Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Syvertsen, Amy K.; Stout, Michael D.; Flanagan, Constance A.

2009-01-01

The recommitment of public education to its civic roots has revived discussion on how to engage younger generations of citizens in electoral politics and civic life. This randomized trial of 1,670 high school students in 80 social studies classrooms evaluates the impact of an election-based civics program on students' civic knowledge, skills, and…

Course Outlines in Science of the Rumson-Fair Haven Senior Elective Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1976

The Rumson-Fair Haven Senior Elective Program was developed and implemented by students, faculty, and administrators over the three-year period from 1971 to 1974. The program offers high school students who complete graduation requirements in the first three years of the four-year program a combination of the following options for the senior year:…

Textbook Outcome: A Composite Measure for Quality of Elective Aneurysm Surgery.

PubMed

Karthaus, Eleonora G; Lijftogt, Niki; Busweiler, Linde A D; Elsman, Bernard H P; Wouters, Michel W J M; Vahl, Anco C; Hamming, Jaap F

2017-11-01

To investigate a new composite quality measurement, which comprises a desirable outcome for elective aneurysm surgery, called "Textbook Outcome" (TO). Single-quality indicators in vascular surgery are often not distinctive and insufficiently reflect the quality of care. All patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, registered in the Dutch Surgical Aneurysm Audit between 2014 and 2015 were included. TO was defined as the percentage of patients who had abdominal aortic aneurysm-repair without intraoperative complications, postoperative surgical complications, reinterventions, prolonged hospital stay [endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) ≤4 d, open surgical repair (OSR) ≤10 d], readmissions, and postoperative mortality (≤30 d after surgery/at discharge). Case-mix adjusted TO rates were used to compare hospitals and to compare individual hospital results for different procedures. Five thousand one hundred seventy patients were included, of whom 4039 were treated with EVAR and 1131 with OSR. TO was achieved in 71% of EVAR and 53% of OSR. Important obstacles for achieving TO were a prolonged hospital stay, postoperative complications, and readmissions. Adjusted TO rates varied from 38% to 89% (EVAR) and from 0% to 97% (OSR) between individual hospitals. Hospitals with a high TO for OSR also had a high TO for EVAR; however, a high TO for EVAR did not implicate a high TO for OSR. TO generates additional information to evaluate the overall quality of the care of elective aneurysm surgery, which subsequently can be used by hospitals to improve the quality of their care.

Simple Algorithms for Distributed Leader Election in Anonymous Synchronous Rings and Complete Networks Inspired by Neural Development in Fruit Flies.

PubMed

Xu, Lei; Jeavons, Peter

2015-11-01

Leader election in anonymous rings and complete networks is a very practical problem in distributed computing. Previous algorithms for this problem are generally designed for a classical message passing model where complex messages are exchanged. However, the need to send and receive complex messages makes such algorithms less practical for some real applications. We present some simple synchronous algorithms for distributed leader election in anonymous rings and complete networks that are inspired by the development of the neural system of the fruit fly. Our leader election algorithms all assume that only one-bit messages are broadcast by nodes in the network and processors are only able to distinguish between silence and the arrival of one or more messages. These restrictions allow implementations to use a simpler message-passing architecture. Even with these harsh restrictions our algorithms are shown to achieve good time and message complexity both analytically and experimentally.

Elective rotations and their impact on resident and faculty decision making.

PubMed

Baptist, Alan P; Tang, Tricia S; Duan, Linping; Baldwin, James L

2005-01-01

Restrictions on resident-duty work hours have led to fewer opportunities to participate in elective rotations. To investigate the potential impact of elective rotations on resident and faculty physicians using allergy/immunology (A/I) as a model. A questionnaire was sent to 375 primary care physicians. It assessed demographic information, training background, A/I-referral history and intentions, and perceived knowledge of A/I-specific issues. A total of 228 surveys were returned. Resident physicians who were more senior in their training or who had taken an A/I rotation were more likely to have referred a patient to A/I in the past, more likely to refer a patient to A/I for chronic sinusitis, and more likely to report a greater knowledge of A/I topics. Faculty physicians with a history of an A/I rotation were more likely to feel knowledgeable about A/I topics. Elective rotations are positively correlated with perceived knowledge, referral intentions, and past history of referrals.

Predicting Near-surface Winds with WindNinja for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Shannon, K.; Butler, B.

2016-12-01

WindNinja is a high-resolution diagnostic wind model widely used by operational wildland fire managers to predict how near-surface winds may influence fire behavior. Many of the features which have made WindNinja successful for wildland fire are also important for wind energy applications. Some of these features include flexible runtime options which allow the user to initialize the model with coarser scale weather model forecasts, sparse weather station observations, or a simple domain-average wind for what-if scenarios; built-in data fetchers for required model inputs, including gridded terrain and vegetation data and operational weather model forecasts; relatively fast runtimes on simple hardware; an extremely user-friendly interface; and a number of output format options, including KMZ files for viewing in Google Earth and GeoPDFs which can be viewed in a GIS. The recent addition of a conservation of mass and momentum solver based on OpenFOAM libraries further increases the utility of WindNinja to modelers in the wind energy sector interested not just in mean wind predictions, but also in turbulence metrics. Here we provide an evaluation of WindNinja forecasts based on (1) operational weather model forecasts and (2) weather station observations provided by the MesoWest API. We also compare the high-resolution WindNinja forecasts to the coarser operational weather model forecasts. For this work we will use the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Forecasts will be evaluated with data collected in the Birch Creek valley of eastern Idaho, USA between June-October 2013. Near-surface wind, turbulence data, and vertical wind and temperature profiles were collected at very high spatial resolution during this field campaign specifically for use in evaluating high-resolution wind models like WindNinja. This work demonstrates the ability of WindNinja to generate very high-resolution wind forecasts for wind energy applications and evaluates the forecasts produced by two different initialization methods with data collected in a broad valley surrounded by complex terrain.

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner.

PubMed

Pecchia, Leandro; Martin, Jennifer L; Ragozzino, Angela; Vanzanella, Carmela; Scognamiglio, Arturo; Mirarchi, Luciano; Morgan, Stephen P

2013-01-05

The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department.

Hydrologic Derivatives for Modeling and Analysis—A new global high-resolution database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a new global high-resolution hydrologic derivative database. Loosely modeled on the HYDRO1k database, this new database, entitled Hydrologic Derivatives for Modeling and Analysis, provides comprehensive and consistent global coverage of topographically derived raster layers (digital elevation model data, flow direction, flow accumulation, slope, and compound topographic index) and vector layers (streams and catchment boundaries). The coverage of the data is global, and the underlying digital elevation model is a hybrid of three datasets: HydroSHEDS (Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GMTED2010 (Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010), and the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission). For most of the globe south of 60°N., the raster resolution of the data is 3 arc-seconds, corresponding to the resolution of the SRTM. For the areas north of 60°N., the resolution is 7.5 arc-seconds (the highest resolution of the GMTED2010 dataset) except for Greenland, where the resolution is 30 arc-seconds. The streams and catchments are attributed with Pfafstetter codes, based on a hierarchical numbering system, that carry important topological information. This database is appropriate for use in continental-scale modeling efforts. The work described in this report was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center.

Election Turnout Statistics in Many Countries: Similarities, Differences, and a Diffusive Field Model for Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Borghesi, Christian; Raynal, Jean-Claude; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2012-01-01

We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular that the spatial correlation of turnout rates decay logarithmically with distance in all cases. This result is quantitatively reproduced by a decision model that assumes that each voter makes his mind as a result of three influence terms: one totally idiosyncratic component, one city-specific term with short-ranged fluctuations in space, and one long-ranged correlated field which propagates diffusively in space. A detailed analysis reveals several interesting features: for example, different countries have different degrees of local heterogeneities and seem to be characterized by a different propensity for individuals to conform to the cultural norm. We furthermore find clear signs of herding (i.e., strongly correlated decisions at the individual level) in some countries, but not in others. PMID:22615762

Improving Science Student Teachers' Self-perceptions of Fluency with Innovative Technologies and Scientific Inquiry Abilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çalik, Muammer; Ebenezer, Jazlin; Özsevgeç, Tuncay; Küçük, Zeynel; Artun, Hüseyin

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of "Environmental Chemistry" elective course via Technology-Embedded Scientific Inquiry (TESI) model on senior science student teachers' (SSSTs) self-perceptions of fluency with innovative technologies (InT) and scientific inquiry abilities. The study was conducted with 117 SSSTs (68 females and 49 males—aged 21-23 years) enrolled in the "Environmental Chemistry" elective course in spring semester of 2011-2012 academic year in a Turkish University. Within a simple (causal) experimental design, Innovative Technology Fluency Survey and the SSSTs' environmental research papers were employed to collect data. The results indicate that the "Environmental Chemistry" elective course via the TESI model improved the SSSTs' self-perceptions of fluency with InT and the scientific inquiry abilities. In light of the results, it is recommended that an undergraduate course for improving the SSSTs' higher-order scientific inquiry abilities and preparing academically papers should be devised and added into the science teacher-training programmes.

Study of surface integrity AISI 4140 as result of hard, dry and high speed machining using CBN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ginting, B.; Sembiring, R. W.; Manurung, N.

2017-09-01

The concept of hard, dry and high speed machining can be combined, to produce high productivity, with lower production costs in manufacturing industry. Hard lathe process can be a solution to reduce production time. In lathe hard alloy steels reported problems relating to the integrity of such surface roughness, residual stress, the white layer and the surface integrity. AISI 4140 material is used for high reliable hydraulic system components. This material includes in cold work tool steel. Consideration election is because this material is able to be hardened up to 55 HRC. In this research, the experimental design using CCD model fit with three factors, each factor is composed of two levels, and six central point, experiments were conducted with 1 replications. The experimental design research using CCD model fit.

Evaluation on newly developed high resolution of surface solar radiation from MTSAT observations for the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Yang, K.; Tang, W.; Qin, J.

2015-12-01

Neither surface measurement nor existing remote sensing products of the Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) can meet the application requirements of hydrological and land process modeling in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). High resolution (hourly; 0.1⁰) of SSR estimates have been derived recently from the geostationary satellite observations - the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT). This SSR estimation is based on updating an existing physical model, the UMD-SRB (University of Maryland Surface Radiation Budget) which is the basis of the well-known GEWEX-SRB model. In the updated framework introduced is the high-resolution Global Land Surface Broadband Albedo Product (GLASS) with spatial continuity. The developed SSR estimates are demonstrated at different temporal resolutions over the TP and are evaluated against ground observations and other satellite products from: (1) China Meteorological Administration (CMA) radiation stations in TP; (2) three TP radiation stations contributed from the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research; (3) and the universal used satellite products (i.e. ISCCP-FD, GEWEX-SRB) in relatively low spatial resolution (0.5º-2.5º) and temporal resolution (3-hourly, daily, or monthly).

Asymmetric Eyewall Vertical Motion in a High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Pu, Zhao-Xia

2003-01-01

This study examines a high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Results from the simulation will be compared to the conceptual model of Heymsfield et al. (2001) to determine the extent to which this conceptual model explains vertical motions and precipitation growth in the eyewall.

Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

DOE PAGES

O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik; ...

2016-06-19

This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental designmore » has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.« less

Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik

This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental designmore » has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.« less

Scalable approximate policies for Markov decision process models of hospital elective admissions.

PubMed

Zhu, George; Lizotte, Dan; Hoey, Jesse

2014-05-01

To demonstrate the feasibility of using stochastic simulation methods for the solution of a large-scale Markov decision process model of on-line patient admissions scheduling. The problem of admissions scheduling is modeled as a Markov decision process in which the states represent numbers of patients using each of a number of resources. We investigate current state-of-the-art real time planning methods to compute solutions to this Markov decision process. Due to the complexity of the model, traditional model-based planners are limited in scalability since they require an explicit enumeration of the model dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we apply sample-based planners along with efficient simulation techniques that given an initial start state, generate an action on-demand while avoiding portions of the model that are irrelevant to the start state. We also propose a novel variant of a popular sample-based planner that is particularly well suited to the elective admissions problem. Results show that the stochastic simulation methods allow for the problem size to be scaled by a factor of almost 10 in the action space, and exponentially in the state space. We have demonstrated our approach on a problem with 81 actions, four specialities and four treatment patterns, and shown that we can generate solutions that are near-optimal in about 100s. Sample-based planners are a viable alternative to state-based planners for large Markov decision process models of elective admissions scheduling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elective removal of convexo-concave Björk-Shiley valves.

PubMed

Rajesh, P B; Smith, G H; Lawford, P V; Black, M M

1994-08-01

Replacement has been an accepted method for treating advanced cardiac valvular disease for more than 25 years. However, the perfect prosthesis has yet to be developed, judging by the number of devices available. A prosthesis that initially appears promising may cause problems in due course, and indeed some devices have been modified or withdrawn from clinical use. A notable example of a prosthetic valve that has give problems is the Björk-Shiley convexo-concave prosthesis, some models of which have undergone mechanical failure due to strut fracture. We report the elective removal of such a valve and the subsequent examination of the prosthesis. The results of this examination suggest that a policy of elective removal is justified.

[Estimation of desert vegetation coverage based on multi-source remote sensing data].

PubMed

Wan, Hong-Mei; Li, Xia; Dong, Dao-Rui

2012-12-01

Taking the lower reaches of Tarim River in Xinjiang of Northwest China as study areaAbstract: Taking the lower reaches of Tarim River in Xinjiang of Northwest China as study area and based on the ground investigation and the multi-source remote sensing data of different resolutions, the estimation models for desert vegetation coverage were built, with the precisions of different estimation methods and models compared. The results showed that with the increasing spatial resolution of remote sensing data, the precisions of the estimation models increased. The estimation precision of the models based on the high, middle-high, and middle-low resolution remote sensing data was 89.5%, 87.0%, and 84.56%, respectively, and the precisions of the remote sensing models were higher than that of vegetation index method. This study revealed the change patterns of the estimation precision of desert vegetation coverage based on different spatial resolution remote sensing data, and realized the quantitative conversion of the parameters and scales among the high, middle, and low spatial resolution remote sensing data of desert vegetation coverage, which would provide direct evidence for establishing and implementing comprehensive remote sensing monitoring scheme for the ecological restoration in the study area.

The micro-mechanics of strength, durability and damage tolerance in composites: new insights from high resolution computed tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spearing, S. Mark; Sinclair, Ian

2016-07-01

Recent work, led by the authors, on impact damage resistance, particle toughening and tensile fibre failure is reviewed in order to illustrate the use of high-resolution X-ray tomography to observe and quantify damage mechanisms in carbon fibre composite laminates. Using synchrotron and micro-focus X-ray sources resolutions of less than 1 μm have been routinely achieved. This enables individual broken fibres and the micromechanisms of particle toughening to be observed and quantified. The data for fibre failure, cluster formation and overall tensile strength are compared with model predictions. This allows strategies for future model development to be identified. The overall implications for using such high-resolution 3-D measurements to inform a “data-rich mechanics” approach to materials evaluation and modeling is discussed.

Elective induction versus spontaneous labour in Latin America

PubMed Central

Guerra, Gláucia Virgínia; Souza, João Paulo; Faúndes, Aníbal; Morais, Sirlei Siani; Gülmezoglu, Ahmet Metin; Passini, Renato; Parpinelli, Mary Angela; Carroli, Guillermo

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess the frequency of elective induction of labour and its determinants in selected Latin America countries; quantify success in attaining vaginal delivery, and compare rates of caesarean and adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes after elective induction versus spontaneous labour in low-risk pregnancies. Methods Of 37 444 deliveries in women with low-risk pregnancies, 1847 (4.9%) were electively induced. The factors associated with adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes among cases of spontaneous and induced onset of labour were compared. Odds ratios for factors potentially associated with adverse outcomes were calculated, as were the relative risks of having an adverse maternal or perinatal outcome (both with their 95% confidence intervals). Adjustment using multiple logistic regression models followed these analyses. Findings Of 11 077 cases of induced labour, 1847 (16.7%) were elective. Elective inductions occurred in 4.9% of women with low-risk pregnancies (37 444). Oxytocin was the most common method used (83% of cases), either alone or combined with another. Of induced deliveries, 88.2% were vaginal. The most common maternal adverse events were: (i) a higher postpartum need for uterotonic drugs, (ii) a nearly threefold risk of admission to the intensive care unit; (iii) a fivefold risk of postpartum hysterectomy, and (iv) an increased need for anaesthesia/analgesia. Perinatal outcomes were satisfactory except for a 22% higher risk of delayed breastfeeding (i.e. initiation between 1 hour and 7 days postpartum). Conclusion Caution is mandatory when indicating elective labour induction because the increased risk of maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes is not outweighed by clear benefits. PMID:21897486

Development of Geospatial Map Based Portal for Delimitation of Mcd Wards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, A. Kumar Chandra; Kumar, P.; Sharma, P. Kumar

2017-09-01

The Geospatial Delhi Limited (GSDL), a Govt. of NCT of Delhi Company formed in order to provide the geospatial information of National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCTD) to the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD) and its organs such as DDA, MCD, DJB, State Election Department, DMRC etc., for the benefit of all citizens of Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD). This paper describes the development of Geospatial Map based Portal for Delimitation of MCD Wards (GMPDW) and election of 3 Municipal Corporations of NCT of Delhi. The portal has been developed as a map based spatial decision support system (SDSS) for delimitation of MCD Wards and draw of peripheral wards boundaries to planning and management of MCD Election process of State Election Commission, and as an MCD election related information searching tools (Polling Station, MCD Wards and Assembly constituency etc.,) for the citizens of NCTD. The GMPDW is based on Client-Server architecture model. It has been developed using Arc GIS Server 10.0 with .NET (pronounced dot net) technology. The GMPDW is scalable to enterprise SDSS with enterprise Geo Database & Virtual Private Network (VPN) connectivity. Spatial data to GMPDW includes Enumeration Block (EB) and Enumeration Blocks Group (EBG) boundaries of Citizens of Delhi, Assembly Constituency, Parliamentary Constituency, Election District, Landmark locations of Polling Stations & basic amenities (Police Stations, Hospitals, Schools and Fire Stations etc.). GMPDW could help achieve not only the desired transparency and easiness in planning process but also facilitates through efficient & effective tools for management of MCD election. It enables a faster response to the changing ground realities in the development planning, owing to its in-built scientific approach and open-ended design.

Elective decompression of the left ventricle in pediatric patients may reduce the duration of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

PubMed

Hacking, Douglas F; Best, Derek; d'Udekem, Yves; Brizard, Christian P; Konstantinov, Igor E; Millar, Johnny; Butt, Warwick

2015-04-01

We aimed to determine the effect of elective left heart decompression at the time of initiation of central venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) on VA ECMO duration and clinical outcomes in children in a single tertiary ECMO referral center with a large pediatric population from a national referral center for pediatric cardiac surgery. We studied 51 episodes of VA ECMO in a historical cohort of 49 pediatric patients treated between the years 1990 and 2013 in the Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) of the Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne. The cases had a variety of diagnoses including congenital cardiac abnormalities, sepsis, myocarditis, and cardiomyopathy. Left heart decompression as an elective treatment or an emergency intervention for left heart distension was effectively achieved by a number of methods, including left atrial venting, blade atrial septostomy, and left ventricular cannulation. Elective left heart decompression was associated with a reduction in time on ECMO (128 h) when compared with emergency decompression (236 h) (P = 0.013). Subgroup analysis showed that ECMO duration was greatest in noncardiac patients (elective 138 h, emergency 295 h; P = 0.02) and in patients who died despite both emergency decompression and ECMO (elective 133 h, emergency 354 h; P = 0.002). As the emergency cases had a lower pH, a higher PaCO2 , and a lower oxygenation index and were treated with a higher mean airway pressure, positive end-expiratory pressure, and respiratory rate prior to receiving VA ECMO, we undertook multivariate linear regression modeling to show that only PaCO2 and the timing of left heart decompression were associated with ECMO duration. However, elective left heart decompression was not associated with a reduction in length of PICU stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, or duration of oxygen therapy. Elective left heart decompression was not associated with improved ECMO survival or survival to PICU discharge. Elective left heart decompression may reduce ECMO duration and has therefore the potential to reduce ECMO-related complications. A prospective, randomized controlled trial is indicated to study this intervention further. Copyright © 2014 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Computation of high-resolution SAR distributions in a head due to a radiating dipole antenna representing a hand-held mobile phone.

PubMed

Van de Kamer, J B; Lagendijk, J J W

2002-05-21

SAR distributions in a healthy female adult head as a result of a radiating vertical dipole antenna (frequency 915 MHz) representing a hand-held mobile phone have been computed for three different resolutions: 2 mm, 1 mm and 0.4 mm. The extremely high resolution of 0.4 mm was obtained with our quasistatic zooming technique, which is briefly described in this paper. For an effectively transmitted power of 0.25 W, the maximum averaged SAR values in both cubic- and arbitrary-shaped volumes are, respectively, about 1.72 and 2.55 W kg(-1) for 1 g and 0.98 and 1.73 W kg(-1) for 10 g of tissue. These numbers do not vary much (<8%) for the different resolutions, indicating that SAR computations at a resolution of 2 mm are sufficiently accurate to describe the large-scale distribution. However, considering the detailed SAR pattern in the head, large differences may occur if high-resolution computations are performed rather than low-resolution ones. These deviations are caused by both increased modelling accuracy and improved anatomical description in higher resolution simulations. For example, the SAR profile across a boundary between tissues with high dielectric contrast is much more accurately described at higher resolutions. Furthermore, low-resolution dielectric geometries may suffer from loss of anatomical detail, which greatly affects small-scale SAR distributions. Thus. for strongly inhomogeneous regions high-resolution SAR modelling is an absolute necessity.

Modeling soil temperature change in Seward Peninsula, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debolskiy, M. V.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Muskett, R. R.; Panda, S. K.

2017-12-01

Increasing demand for assessment of climate change-induced permafrost degradation and its consequences promotes creation of high-resolution modeling products of soil temperature changes. This is especially relevant for areas with highly vulnerable warm discontinuous permafrost in the Western Alaska. In this study, we apply ecotype-based modeling approach to simulate high-resolution permafrost distribution and its temporal dynamics in Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To model soil temperature dynamics, we use a transient soil heat transfer model developed at the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL-2). The model solves one dimensional nonlinear heat equation with phase change. The developed model is forced with combination of historical climate and different future scenarios for 1900-2100 with 2x2 km resolution prepared by Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (2017). Vegetation, snow and soil properties are calibrated by ecotype and up-scaled by using Alaska Existing Vegetation Type map for Western Alaska (Flemming, 2015) with 30x30 m resolution provided by Geographic Information Network of Alaska (UAF). The calibrated ecotypes cover over 75% of the study area. We calibrate the model using a data assimilation technique utilizing available observations of air, surface and sub-surface temperatures and snow cover collected by various agencies and research groups (USGS, Geophysical Institute, USDA). The calibration approach takes into account a natural variability between stations in the same ecotype and finds an optimal set of model parameters (snow and soil properties) within the study area. This approach allows reduction in microscale heterogeneity and aggregated soil temperature data from shallow boreholes which is highly dependent on local conditions. As a result of this study we present a series of preliminary high resolution maps for the Seward Peninsula showing changes in the active layer depth and ground temperatures for the current climate and future climate change scenarios.

Benchmarking urban flood models of varying complexity and scale using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fewtrell, Timothy J.; Duncan, Alastair; Sampson, Christopher C.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.

2011-01-01

This paper describes benchmark testing of a diffusive and an inertial formulation of the de St. Venant equations implemented within the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data. The models are applied to a hypothetical flooding scenario in a section of Alcester, UK which experienced significant surface water flooding in the June and July floods of 2007 in the UK. The sensitivity of water elevation and velocity simulations to model formulation and grid resolution are analyzed. The differences in depth and velocity estimates between the diffusive and inertial approximations are within 10% of the simulated value but inertial effects persist at the wetting front in steep catchments. Both models portray a similar scale dependency between 50 cm and 5 m resolution which reiterates previous findings that errors in coarse scale topographic data sets are significantly larger than differences between numerical approximations. In particular, these results confirm the need to distinctly represent the camber and curbs of roads in the numerical grid when simulating surface water flooding events. Furthermore, although water depth estimates at grid scales coarser than 1 m appear robust, velocity estimates at these scales seem to be inconsistent compared to the 50 cm benchmark. The inertial formulation is shown to reduce computational cost by up to three orders of magnitude at high resolutions thus making simulations at this scale viable in practice compared to diffusive models. For the first time, this paper highlights the utility of high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data to inform small-scale flood risk management studies.

Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

2018-03-01

There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and underestimate the heavy rain days compared to the observation data.

Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langehaug, H. R.; Sandø, A. B.; Årthun, M.; Ilıcak, M.

2018-03-01

The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° horizontal grid) and a medium (1°) resolution version of a forced global ocean-sea ice model, utilising the Norwegian Earth System Model, to assess the impact of increased ocean resolution. Our target is the simulation of temperature and salinity anomalies along the pathway of warm Atlantic water in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. Although the high resolution version has larger biases in general at the ocean surface, the poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies is better resolved in this version, i.e., the time for an anomaly to travel northward is more similar to observation based estimates. The extent of these anomalies can be rather large in both model versions, as also seen in observations, e.g., stretching from Scotland to northern Norway. The easternmost branch into the Nordic and Barents Seas, carrying warm Atlantic water, is also improved by higher resolution, both in terms of mean heat transport and variability in thermohaline properties. A more detailed assessment of the link between the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and the thermohaline anomalies at the entrance of the Nordic Seas reveals that the high resolution is more consistent with mechanisms that are previously published. This suggests better dynamics and variability in the subpolar region and the Nordic Seas in the high resolution compared to the medium resolution. This is most likely due a better representation of the mean circulation in the studied region when using higher resolution. As the poleward propagation of ocean heat anomalies is considered to be a key source of climate predictability, we recommend that similar methodology presented herein should be performed on coupled climate models that are used for climate prediction.

Measure and collapse of participatory democracy in a two-party system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sznajd, Jozef

2015-10-01

Measure what is measurable, and make measurable what is not so (Galileo Galilei). According to the above sentence we do not ask why we need to measure democracy but if it is possible to measure something which is not unequivocally defined. Although, it is unlikely a final agreement on the definition of democracy, the idea that it is a form of governance based on collective decision making seems to be uncontested. On the premise that in the high-quality democracy citizens (agents) not only must have equal participation rights but must want to participate in shaping decision, as an effective measure of democracy in a two party political system we propose the percentage of the total population that actually voted in a given elections only for two major parties. Thus, we disregard not only nonvoters but also smaller parties voters whom votes will not have a substantial impact on the election and consequently they will not be in the loop, even theoretically. To describe such a system a sociophysics model based on the $S=1$ Ising model (Blume-Capel) is proposed. The measure of democracy, V_D index, as a function of inter-party conflict is analyzed.

A Medical Student Elective Promoting Humanism, Communication Skills, Complementary and Alternative Medicine and Physician Self-Care: An Evaluation of the HEART Program

PubMed Central

Dossett, Michelle L.; Kohatsu, Wendy; Nunley, William; Mehta, Darshan; Davis, Roger B.; Phillips, Russell S.; Yeh, Gloria

2013-01-01

Objective In 2002 AMSA created a fourth year medical student elective known as HEART that provided the opportunity for students to explore humanism in medicine, self-care, complementary and alternative medicine modalities, communication, activism, and community building in a four week immersion experience. The educational effects of this elective, and whether it has met its stated goals, are unknown. Method The authors conducted a web-based, cross-sectional survey of the first eight cohorts of HEART graduates in 2010. Survey questions assessed respondents’ demographics and perspectives on the educational impact of the elective. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and qualitative analyses were guided by grounded theory. Results Of 168 eligible alumni, 122 (73%), completed the survey. The majority were female (70%), age ≤35 (77%), and trained in primary care specialties (66%). Half were attendings in practice. The majority of respondents felt the elective taught professionalism (89%) and communication skills (92%) well or very well. The majority highly agreed that the elective helped them better cope with stress during residency training (80%), taught them self-care skills (75%), and improved their ability to empathize and connect with patients (71%). Qualitative analysis of the personal and professional impact of the elective identified twelve common themes with self-discovery, self-care, and collegial development/community most frequently cited. Conclusions The majority of HEART graduates endorse learning important skills and benefiting from the experience both personally and professionally. Aspects of the HEART curriculum may help training programs teach professionalism and improve trainee well-being. PMID:24021470

Increasing the Elective Endovascular to Open Repair Ratio of Popliteal Artery Aneurysm.

PubMed

Wrede, Axel; Wiberg, Frans; Acosta, Stefan

2018-02-01

Open repair (OR) for popliteal artery aneurysm (PAA) has recently been challenged by endovascular repair (ER) as the primary choice of treatment. The aim of the present study was to evaluate time trends in treatment modality and compare outcomes between OR and ER among electively operated patients after start of screening in 2010 for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), a disease highly associated with PAA. Between January 1, 2009, and April 30, 2017, 102 procedures and 36 acute and 66 elective repairs for PAA were identified. Over time, a trend ( P = .089) for an increasing elective to acute repair ratio of PAA and an increase in elective ER to OR ratio ( P = .003) was found. Among electively repaired PAAs, the ER group was older ( P = .047) and had a higher ankle-brachial index (ABI; P = .044). The ER group had fewer wound infections ( P = .003), fewer major bleeding complications ( P = .046), and shorter in-hospital stay ( P < .001). After 1 year of follow-up, the ER group had a higher rate of major amputations ( P = .037). Amputation-free survival at the end of follow-up did not differ between groups ( P = .68). Among the 17 patients with PAA eligible for AAA screening, 4 (24%) were diagnosed with PAA through the screening program of AAA. The epidemiology of elective repair of PAA has changed toward increased ER, although ER showed a higher rate of major amputations at 1 year. Confounding was considerable and a randomized trial is needed for evaluation of the best therapeutic option.

High resolution infrared datasets useful for validating stratospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rinsland, Curtis P.

1992-01-01

An important objective of the High Speed Research Program (HSRP) is to support research in the atmospheric sciences that will improve the basic understanding of the circulation and chemistry of the stratosphere and lead to an interim assessment of the impact of a projected fleet of High Speed Civil Transports (HSCT's) on the stratosphere. As part of this work, critical comparisons between models and existing high quality measurements are planned. These comparisons will be used to test the reliability of current atmospheric chemistry models. Two suitable sets of high resolution infrared measurements are discussed.

``Models'' CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!: ``Toy Models Too-Often Yield Toy-Results''!!!: Statistics, Polls, Politics, Economics, Elections!!!: GRAPH/Network-Physics: ``Equal-Distribution for All'' TRUMP-ED BEC ``Winner-Take-All'' ``Doctor Livingston I Presume?''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preibus-Norquist, R. N. C.-Grover; Bush-Romney, G. W.-Willard-Mitt; Dimon, J. P.; Adelson-Koch, Sheldon-Charles-David-Sheldon; Krugman-Axelrod, Paul-David; Siegel, Edward Carl-Ludwig; D. N. C./O. F. P./''47''%/50% Collaboration; R. N. C./G. O. P./''53''%/49% Collaboration; Nyt/Wp/Cnn/Msnbc/Pbs/Npr/Ft Collaboration; Ftn/Fnc/Fox/Wsj/Fbn Collaboration; Lb/Jpmc/Bs/Boa/Ml/Wamu/S&P/Fitch/Moodys/Nmis Collaboration

2013-03-01

``Models''? CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!: ``Toy Models Too-Often Yield Toy-Results''!!!: Goldenfeld[``The Role of Models in Physics'', in Lects.on Phase-Transitions & R.-G.(92)-p.32-33!!!]: statistics(Silver{[NYTimes; Bensinger, ``Math-Geerks Clearly-Defeated Pundits'', LATimes, (11/9/12)])}, polls, politics, economics, elections!!!: GRAPH/network/net/...-PHYSICS Barabasi-Albert[RMP (02)] (r,t)-space VERSUS(???) [Where's the Inverse/ Dual/Integral-Transform???] (Benjamin)Franklin(1795)-Fourier(1795; 1897;1822)-Laplace(1850)-Mellin (1902) Brillouin(1922)-...(k,)-space, {Hubbard [The World According to Wavelets,Peters (96)-p.14!!!/p.246: refs.-F2!!!]},and then (2) Albert-Barabasi[]Bose-Einstein quantum-statistics(BEQS) Bose-Einstein CONDENSATION (BEC) versus Bianconi[pvt.-comm.; arXiv:cond-mat/0204506; ...] -Barabasi [???] Fermi-Dirac

Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

Description of surface transport in the region of the Belizean Barrier Reef based on observations and alternative high-resolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindo-Atichati, D.; Curcic, M.; Paris, C. B.; Buston, P. M.

2016-10-01

The gains from implementing high-resolution versus less costly low-resolution models to describe coastal circulation are not always clear, often lacking statistical evaluation. Here we construct a hierarchy of ocean-atmosphere models operating at multiple scales within a 1 × 1° domain of the Belizean Barrier Reef (BBR). The various components of the atmosphere-ocean models are evaluated with in situ observations of surface drifters, wind and sea surface temperature. First, we compare the dispersion and velocity of 55 surface drifters released in the field in summer 2013 to the dispersion and velocity of simulated drifters under alternative model configurations. Increasing the resolution of the ocean model (from 1/12° to 1/100°, from 1 day to 1 h) and atmosphere model forcing (from 1/2° to 1/100°, from 6 h to 1 h), and incorporating tidal forcing incrementally reduces discrepancy between simulated and observed velocities and dispersion. Next, in trying to understand why the high-resolution models improve prediction, we find that resolving both the diurnal sea-breeze and semi-diurnal tides is key to improving the Lagrangian statistics and transport predictions along the BBR. Notably, the model with the highest ocean-atmosphere resolution and with tidal forcing generates a higher number of looping trajectories and sub-mesoscale coherent structures that are otherwise unresolved. Finally, simulations conducted with this model from June to August of 2013 show an intensification of the velocity fields throughout the summer and reveal a mesoscale anticyclonic circulation around Glovers Reef, and sub-mesoscale cyclonic eddies formed in the vicinity of Columbus Island. This study provides a general framework to assess the best surface transport prediction from alternative ocean-atmosphere models using metrics derived from high frequency drifters' data and meteorological stations.

Improving the accuracy of macromolecular structure refinement at 7 Å resolution.

PubMed

Brunger, Axel T; Adams, Paul D; Fromme, Petra; Fromme, Raimund; Levitt, Michael; Schröder, Gunnar F

2012-06-06

In X-ray crystallography, molecular replacement and subsequent refinement is challenging at low resolution. We compared refinement methods using synchrotron diffraction data of photosystem I at 7.4 Å resolution, starting from different initial models with increasing deviations from the known high-resolution structure. Standard refinement spoiled the initial models, moving them further away from the true structure and leading to high R(free)-values. In contrast, DEN refinement improved even the most distant starting model as judged by R(free), atomic root-mean-square differences to the true structure, significance of features not included in the initial model, and connectivity of electron density. The best protocol was DEN refinement with initial segmented rigid-body refinement. For the most distant initial model, the fraction of atoms within 2 Å of the true structure improved from 24% to 60%. We also found a significant correlation between R(free) values and the accuracy of the model, suggesting that R(free) is useful even at low resolution. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LITE microscopy: Tilted light-sheet excitation of model organisms offers high resolution and low photobleaching

PubMed Central

Gerbich, Therese M.; Rana, Kishan; Suzuki, Aussie; Schaefer, Kristina N.; Heppert, Jennifer K.; Boothby, Thomas C.; Allbritton, Nancy L.; Gladfelter, Amy S.; Maddox, Amy S.

2018-01-01

Fluorescence microscopy is a powerful approach for studying subcellular dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolution; however, conventional fluorescence microscopy techniques are light-intensive and introduce unnecessary photodamage. Light-sheet fluorescence microscopy (LSFM) mitigates these problems by selectively illuminating the focal plane of the detection objective by using orthogonal excitation. Orthogonal excitation requires geometries that physically limit the detection objective numerical aperture (NA), thereby limiting both light-gathering efficiency (brightness) and native spatial resolution. We present a novel live-cell LSFM method, lateral interference tilted excitation (LITE), in which a tilted light sheet illuminates the detection objective focal plane without a sterically limiting illumination scheme. LITE is thus compatible with any detection objective, including oil immersion, without an upper NA limit. LITE combines the low photodamage of LSFM with high resolution, high brightness, and coverslip-based objectives. We demonstrate the utility of LITE for imaging animal, fungal, and plant model organisms over many hours at high spatiotemporal resolution. PMID:29490939

Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.; Dumas, Christophe; Paillard, Didier

2018-02-01

This paper presents the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM v1.1. We describe the following methodology to generate temperature and precipitation fields on a 40 km × 40 km Cartesian grid of the Northern Hemisphere from the T21 native atmospheric model grid. Our scheme is not grid specific and conserves energy and moisture in the same way as the original climate model. We show that we are able to generate a high-resolution field which presents a spatial variability in better agreement with the observations compared to the standard model. Although the large-scale model biases are not corrected, for selected model parameters, the downscaling can induce a better overall performance compared to the standard version on both the high-resolution grid and on the native grid. Foreseen applications of this new model feature include the improvement of ice sheet model coupling and high-resolution land surface models.

High weight gain during pregnancy increases the risk for emergency caesarean section - Population-based data from the Swedish Maternal Health Care Register 2011-2012.

PubMed

Nilses, Carin; Persson, Margareta; Lindkvist, Marie; Petersson, Kerstin; Mogren, Ingrid

2017-03-01

The aim was to investigate maternal background factors' significance in relation to risk of elective and emergency caesarean sections (CS) in Sweden. Population-based, retrospective, cross-sectional study. The Swedish Maternal Health Care Register (MHCR) is a national quality register that collects data on pregnancy, delivery and postpartum period. All women registered in MHCR 2011 to 2012 were included in the study sample (N = 178,716). The risk of elective and emergency caesarean section in relation to age, parity, education, country of origin, weight in early pregnancy and weight gain during pregnancy was calculated in logistic regression models. Multiparous women demonstrated a doubled risk of elective CS compared to primiparous women, but their risk for emergency CS was halved. Overweight and obesity at enrolment in antenatal care increased the risk for emergency CS, irrespective of parity. Weight gain above recommended international levels (Institute of Medicine, IOM) during pregnancy increased the risk for emergency CS for women with normal weight, overweight or obesity. There is a need of national guidelines on recommended weight gain during pregnancy in Sweden. We suggest that the usefulness of the IOM guidelines for weight gain during pregnancy should be evaluated in the Swedish context. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved large-scale hydrological modelling through the assimilation of streamflow and downscaled satellite soil moisture observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López López, Patricia; Wanders, Niko; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Renzullo, Luigi; Sterk, Geert; Schellekens, Jaap; Bierkens, Marc

2015-04-01

The coarse spatial resolution of global hydrological models (typically > 0.25o) often limits their ability to resolve key water balance processes for many river basins and thus compromises their suitability for water resources management, especially when compared to locally-tunes river models. A possible solution to the problem may be to drive the coarse resolution models with high-resolution meteorological data as well as to assimilate ground-based and remotely-sensed observations of key water cycle variables. While this would improve the modelling resolution of the global model, the impact of prediction accuracy remains largely an open question. In this study we investigated the impact that assimilating streamflow and satellite soil moisture observations have on global hydrological model estimation, driven by coarse- and high-resolution meteorological observations, for the Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological model is forced with downscaled global climatological data (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) obtained from the WATCH Forcing Data (WFDEI) and local high resolution gauging station based gridded datasets (0.05o), sourced from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Downscaled satellite derived soil moisture (from 0.5o downscaled to 0.1o resolution) from AMSR-E and streamflow observations collected from 25 gauging stations are assimilated using an ensemble Kalman filter. Several scenarios are analysed to explore the added value of data assimilation considering both local and global climatological data. Results show that the assimilation of streamflow observations result in the largest improvement of the model estimates. The joint assimilation of both streamflow and downscaled soil moisture observations leads to further improved in streamflow simulations (10% reduction in RMSE), mainly in the headwater catchments (up to 10,000 km2). Results also show that the added contribution of data assimilation, for both soil moisture and streamflow, is more pronounced when the global meteorological data are used to force the models. This is caused by the higher uncertainty and coarser resolution of the global forcing. This study demonstrates that it is possible to improve hydrological simulations forced by coarse resolution meteorological data with downscaled satellite soil moisture and streamflow observations and bring them closer to a hydrological model forced with local climatological data. These findings are important in light of the efforts that are currently done to go to global hyper-resolution modelling and can significantly help to advance this research.

JPRS Report, Soviet Union, International Affairs

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-10-04

ignate-elect in perpetuity. Democratic procedure in elec- tions and everyday life, openness and glasnost—those are the essence of public movements...a high enough level of civic awareness to elect for themselves worthy chairmen without directives from the outside. That is the essence of popular...neighbor cooperation within the framework of the continent: Deciding questions about the essence and form of choosing the social path is the sovereign

Engaging Adolescents' Interests, Literacy Practices, and Identities: Digital Collaborative Writing of Fantasy Fiction in a High School English Elective Class

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rish, Ryan M.

2011-01-01

This study investigates an elective English class, in which students in grades 10-12 collectively read and collaboratively wrote fantasy fiction in four groups. The purpose of the class was to have students consider the choices fantasy and science fictions writers, directors, and video game designers make when creating a fictional world. The…

Assessment of Multiple Daily Precipitation Statistics in ERA-Interim Driven Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX Experiments Against High Resolution Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coppola, E.; Fantini, A.; Raffaele, F.; Torma, C. Z.; Bacer, S.; Giorgi, F.; Ahrens, B.; Dubois, C.; Sanchez, E.; Verdecchia, M.

2017-12-01

We assess the statistics of different daily precipitation indices in ensembles of Med-CORDEX and EUROCORDEX experiments at high resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.11° , or RCM11) and medium resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.44° , or RCM44) with regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations for the period 1989-2008. The assessment is carried out by comparison with a set of high resolution observation datasets for 9 European subregions. The statistics analyzed include quantitative metrics for mean precipitation, daily precipitation Probability Density Functions (PDFs), daily precipitation intensity, frequency, 95th percentile and 95th percentile of dry spell length. We assess both an ensemble including all Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX models and one including the Med-CORDEX models alone. For the All Models ensembles, the RCM11 one shows a remarkable performance in reproducing the spatial patterns and seasonal cycle of mean precipitation over all regions, with a consistent and marked improvement compared to the RCM44 ensemble and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. A good consistency with observations by the RCM11 ensemble (and a substantial improvement compared to RCM44 and ERA-Interim) is found also for the daily precipitation PDFs, mean intensity and, to a lesser extent, the 95th percentile. In fact, for some regions the RCM11 ensemble overestimates the occurrence of very high intensity events while for one region the models underestimate the occurrence of the largest extremes. The RCM11 ensemble still shows a general tendency to underestimate the dry day frequency and 95th percentile of dry spell length over wetter regions, with only a marginal improvement compared to the lower resolution models. This indicates that the problem of the excessive production of low precipitation events found in many climate models persists also at relatively high resolutions, at least in wet climate regimes. Concerning the Med-CORDEX model ensembles we find that their performance is of similar quality as that of the all-models over the Mediterranean regions analyzed. Finally, we stress the need of consistent and quality checked fine scale observation datasets for the assessment of RCMs run at increasingly high horizontal resolutions.

Spectral decomposition of internal gravity wave sea surface height in global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, Anna C.; Arbic, Brian K.; Alford, Matthew H.; Ansong, Joseph K.; Farrar, J. Thomas; Menemenlis, Dimitris; O'Rourke, Amanda K.; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Voet, Gunnar; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Zamudio, Luis

2017-10-01

Two global ocean models ranging in horizontal resolution from 1/12° to 1/48° are used to study the space and time scales of sea surface height (SSH) signals associated with internal gravity waves (IGWs). Frequency-horizontal wavenumber SSH spectral densities are computed over seven regions of the world ocean from two simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and three simulations of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). High wavenumber, high-frequency SSH variance follows the predicted IGW linear dispersion curves. The realism of high-frequency motions (>0.87 cpd) in the models is tested through comparison of the frequency spectral density of dynamic height variance computed from the highest-resolution runs of each model (1/25° HYCOM and 1/48° MITgcm) with dynamic height variance frequency spectral density computed from nine in situ profiling instruments. These high-frequency motions are of particular interest because of their contributions to the small-scale SSH variability that will be observed on a global scale in the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite altimetry mission. The variance at supertidal frequencies can be comparable to the tidal and low-frequency variance for high wavenumbers (length scales smaller than ˜50 km), especially in the higher-resolution simulations. In the highest-resolution simulations, the high-frequency variance can be greater than the low-frequency variance at these scales.

The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating.

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Ken Westrick; Sue A. Ferguson; Scott L. Goodrick; Larry Bradshaw; Paul Werth

2004-01-01

Previous studies of model performance at varying resolutions have focused on winter storms or isolated convective events. Little attention has been given to the static high pressure situations that may lead to severe wildfire outbreaks. This study focuses on such an event so as to evaluate the value of increased model resolution for prediction of fire danger. The...

The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Ken Westrick; Sue a. Ferguson; Scott L. Goodrick; Larry Bradshaw; Paul Wreth

2004-01-01

Previous studies of model perfonnance at varying resolutions have focused on winter stonns or isolated convective events. Little attention has been given to the static high pressure situations that may lead to severe wildfire outbreaks. This study focuses on such an event so as to evaluate the value of increased model resolution for prediction of fire danger. The...

Guidelines for preparing high school psychology teachers: course-based and standards-based approaches.

PubMed

2013-01-01

Psychology is one of the most popular elective high school courses. The high school psychology course provides the foundation for students to benefit from psychological perspectives on personal and contemporary issues and learn the rules of evidence and theoretical frameworks of the discipline. The guidelines presented here constitute the second of two reports in this issue of the American Psychologist (January 2013) representing recent American Psychological Association (APA) policies that support high-quality instruction in the teaching of high school psychology. These guidelines, aligned to the standards presented in the preceding report, describe models for the preparation of preservice psychology teachers. The two reports together demonstrate the rigor and competency that should be expected in psychology instruction at the high school level.

Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2018-04-01

We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyman, James M; Restrepo, Juan M; Rael, Rosalyn C

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type ofmore » voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.« less

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a Fully Distributed Model and High-resolution rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Therefore, an increasing interest is in parallel devoted to the development of fully distributed and grid-based models following the increase of computation capabilities, the availability of high-resolution GIS information needed for such models implementation. However, the choice of an appropriate implementation scale to integrate the catchment heterogeneity and the whole measured rainfall variability provided by High-resolution radar technologies still issues. This work proposes a two steps investigation of scale effects in urban hydrology and its effects on modeling works. In the first step fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to describe the catchment heterogeneity, both the structure of the sewer network and the distribution of impervious areas are analyzed. Then an intensive multi-scale modeling work is carried out to understand scaling effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations were conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model was implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 m to 5 m and modeling investigations were performed using both rain gauge rainfall information as well as high resolution X band radar data in order to assess the sensitivity of the model to small scale rainfall variability. Results coming out from this work demonstrate scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modeling. In fact, fractal concept highlights the scale dependency observed within distributed data used to implement hydrological models. Patterns of geophysical data change when we change the observation pixel size. The multi-scale modeling investigation performed with Multi-Hydro model at 17 spatial resolutions confirms scaling effect on hydrological model performance. Results were analyzed at three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed in the modeling work. The sensitivity of the model to small-scale rainfall variability was discussed as well.

Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.

2017-12-01

High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.

26 CFR 15.1-1 - Elections to deduct.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

.... (2) Election to deduct under section 615—(i) General rule. The election to deduct exploration... 26 Internal Revenue 14 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Elections to deduct. 15.1-1 Section 15.1-1... Elections to deduct. (a) Manner of making election—(1) Election to deduct under section 617(a). The election...

Small-Scale Tropopause Dynamics and TOMS Total Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, John L.

2002-01-01

This project used Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) along-track ozone retrievals, in conjunction with ancillary meteorological fields and modeling studies, for high resolution investigations of upper troposphere and lower stratosphere dynamics. Specifically, high resolution along-track (Level 2) EP TOMS data were used to investigate the beautiful fine-scale structure in constituent and meteorological fields prominent in the evolution of highly non-linear baroclinic storm systems. Comparison was made with high resolution meteorological models. The analyses provide internal consistency checks and validation of the EP TOMS data which are vital for monitoring ozone depletion in both polar and midlatitude regions.

A Comparison Between Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in Observations and Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, Marvin A.; Alexadner, M. Joan; Love, Peter T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Ern, Manfred; Hertzog, Albert; Manzini, Elisa; Preusse, Peter; Sato, Kaoru; Scaife, Adam A.;

FACILITATING ADVANCED URBAN METEOROLOGY AND AIR QUALITY MODELING CAPABILITIES WITH HIGH RESOLUTION URBAN DATABASE AND ACCESS PORTAL TOOLS

EPA Science Inventory

Information of urban morphological features at high resolution is needed to properly model and characterize the meteorological and air quality fields in urban areas. We describe a new project called National Urban Database with Access Portal Tool, (NUDAPT) that addresses this nee...

Non-Destructive High-Resolution Organic Matter Record on Lake Sediment using Steady-State Solid Phase Fluorescence: Organic Matter Quality and Quantity Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiers, M.; Perrette, Y.; Etienne, D.; Develle, A. L.; Jacq, K.

2017-12-01

The use of organic proxies increases in paleoenvironmental reconstructions from natural archives. Major advances have been achieved by the development of new highly informative molecular proxies usually linked to specific compounds. While studies focused on targeted compounds, offering a high information degree, advances on bulk organic matter are limited. However, this bulk is the main contributor to carbon cycle and has been shown to be a driver of many mineral or organic compounds transfer and record. Development of target proxies need complementary information on bulk organic matter to understand biases link to controlling factors or analytical methods, and provide a robust interpretation. Fluorescence methods have often been employed to characterize and quantify organic matter. However, these technics are mainly developed for liquid samples, inducing material and resolution loss when working on natural archives (either stalagmite or sediments). High-resolution solid phase fluorescence (SPF) was developed on speleothems. This method allows now to analyse organic matter quality and quantity if procedure to constrain the optical density are adopted. In fact, a calibration method using liquid phase fluorescence (LPF) was developed for speleothem, allowing to quantify organic carbon at high-resolution. We report here an application of such a procedure SPF/LPF measurements on lake sediments. In order to avoid sediment matrix effects on the fluorescence signal, a calibration using LPF measurements was realised. First results using this method provided organic matter quality record of different organic matter compounds (humic-like, protein-like and chlorophylle-like compounds) at high resolution for the sediment core. High resolution organic matter fluxes are obtained in a second time, applying pragmatic chemometrics model (non linear models, partial least square models) on high resolution fluorescence data. SPF method can be considered as a promising tool for high resolution record on organic matter quality and quantity. Potential application of this method will be evocated (lake ecosystem dynamic, changes in trophic levels)

Theoretical Models of Protostellar Binary and Multiple Systems with AMR Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Tomoaki; Tokuda, Kazuki; Onishi, Toshikazu; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro; Saigo, Kazuya; Takakuwa, Shigehisa

2017-05-01

We present theoretical models for protostellar binary and multiple systems based on the high-resolution numerical simulation with an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) code, SFUMATO. The recent ALMA observations have revealed early phases of the binary and multiple star formation with high spatial resolutions. These observations should be compared with theoretical models with high spatial resolutions. We present two theoretical models for (1) a high density molecular cloud core, MC27/L1521F, and (2) a protobinary system, L1551 NE. For the model for MC27, we performed numerical simulations for gravitational collapse of a turbulent cloud core. The cloud core exhibits fragmentation during the collapse, and dynamical interaction between the fragments produces an arc-like structure, which is one of the prominent structures observed by ALMA. For the model for L1551 NE, we performed numerical simulations of gas accretion onto protobinary. The simulations exhibit asymmetry of a circumbinary disk. Such asymmetry has been also observed by ALMA in the circumbinary disk of L1551 NE.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

In search of random noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kester, DO; Bontekoe, Tj. Romke

1994-01-01

In order to make the best high resolution images of IRAS data it is necessary to incorporate any knowledge about the instrument into a model: the IRAS model. This is necessary since every remaining systematic effect will be amplified by any high resolution technique into spurious artifacts in the images. The search for random noise is in fact the never-ending quest for better quality results, and can only be obtained by better models. The Dutch high-resolution effort has resulted in HIRAS which drives the MEMSYS5 algorithm. It is specifically designed for IRAS image construction. A detailed description of HIRAS with many results is in preparation. In this paper we emphasize many of the instrumental effects incorporated in the IRAS model, including our improved 100 micron IRAS response functions.

Global high-resolution simulations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide using CHASER V4.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiya, Takashi; Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Ogochi, Koji; Sudo, Kengo; Takigawa, Masayuki

2018-03-01

We evaluate global tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) simulations using the CHASER V4.0 global chemical transport model (CTM) at horizontal resolutions of 0.56, 1.1, and 2.8°. Model evaluation was conducted using satellite tropospheric NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and aircraft observations from the 2014 Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPÉ). Agreement against satellite retrievals improved greatly at 1.1 and 0.56° resolutions (compared to 2.8° resolution) over polluted and biomass burning regions. The 1.1° simulation generally captured the regional distribution of the tropospheric NO2 column well, whereas 0.56° resolution was necessary to improve the model performance over areas with strong local sources, with mean bias reductions of 67 % over Beijing and 73 % over San Francisco in summer. Validation using aircraft observations indicated that high-resolution simulations reduced negative NO2 biases below 700 hPa over the Denver metropolitan area. These improvements in high-resolution simulations were attributable to (1) closer spatial representativeness between simulations and observations and (2) better representation of large-scale concentration fields (i.e., at 2.8°) through the consideration of small-scale processes. Model evaluations conducted at 0.5 and 2.8° bin grids indicated that the contributions of both these processes were comparable over most polluted regions, whereas the latter effect (2) made a larger contribution over eastern China and biomass burning areas. The evaluations presented in this paper demonstrate the potential of using a high-resolution global CTM for studying megacity-scale air pollutants across the entire globe, potentially also contributing to global satellite retrievals and chemical data assimilation.

Influence of Scale Effect and Model Performance in Downscaling ASTER Land Surface Temperatures to a Very High Spatial Resolution in an Agricultural Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Li, G.; Liu, S.; Zhan, W.; Zhang, X.

2015-12-01

At present land surface temperatures (LSTs) can be generated from thermal infrared remote sensing with spatial resolutions from ~100 m to tens of kilometers. However, LSTs with high spatial resolution, e.g. tens of meters, are still lack. The purpose of LST downscaling is to generate LSTs with finer spatial resolutions than their native spatial resolutions. The statistical linear or nonlinear regression models are most frequently used for LST downscaling. The basic assumption of these models is the scale-invariant relationships between LST and its descriptors, which is questioned but rare researches have been reported. In addition, few researches can be found for downscaling satellite LST or TIR data to a high spatial resolution, i.e. better than 100 m or even finer. The lack of LST with high spatial resolution cannot satisfy the requirements of applications such as evapotranspiration mapping at the field scale. By selecting a dynamically developing agricultural oasis as the study area, the aim of this study is to downscale the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) LSTs to 15 m, to satisfy the requirement of evapotranspiration mapping at the field scale. Twelve ASTER images from May to September in 2012, covering the entire growth stage of maize, were selected. Four statistical models were evaluated, including one global model, one piecewise model, and two local models. The influence from scale effect in downscaling LST was quantified. The downscaled LSTs are evaluated from accuracy and image quality. Results demonstrate that the influence from scale effect varies according to models and the maize growth stage. Significant influence about -4 K to 6 K existed at the early stage and weaker influence existed in the middle stage. When compared with the ground measured LSTs, the downscaled LSTs resulted from the global and local models yielded higher accuracies and better image qualities than the local models. In addition to the vegetation indices, the surface albedo is an important descriptor for downscaling LST through explaining its spatial variation induced by soil moisture.

Postgraduate education on electro-active polymers at Southern Denmark University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Richard W.

2009-03-01

A recently introduced elective to the Master's of Science in Mechatronics program at Southern Denmark University, entitled 'Mechatronics: Design and Build' concentrates on some of the interdisciplinary aspects of Mechatronics Engineering. The 'Motion Control of Mechatronic Devices' is the main theme of this elective. Within this 'theme' the modelling, identification and compensation of nonlinear effects such as friction, stiction and hysteresis are considered. One of the most important components of the elective considers 'Smart Materials' and their use for actuation purposes. The theory, modelling and properties of piezoceramics. magneto- and electro- rheological fluids and dielectric electro active polymers (DEAP) are introduced in the 'Smart Materials' component. This paper initially reviews the laboratory experiments that have been developed for the dielectric electro active polymer section of the 'Mechatronics: Design and Build' elective. In lectures the students are introduced to the basic theory and fabrication of tubular actuators, that use DEAP material based on smart compliant electrode technology. In the laboratory the students to (a) carry out a series of experiments to characterise the tubular actuators, and (b) design a closed-loop position controller and test the performance of the controlled actuator for both step changes in desired position and periodic input reference signals. The last part of this contribution reviews some of the DEAP-based demonstration devices that been developed by Danfoss PolyPower A/S using their PolyPowerTM material which utilizes smart compliant electrode technology.

Oil spill model coupled to an ultra-high-resolution circulation model: implementation for the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korotenko, K.

2003-04-01

An ultra-high-resolution version of DieCAST was adjusted for the Adriatic Sea and coupled with an oil spill model. Hydrodynamic module was developed on base of th low dissipative, four-order-accuracy version DieCAST with the resolution of ~2km. The oil spill model was developed on base of particle tracking technique The effect of evaporation is modeled with an original method developed on the base of the pseudo-component approach. A special dialog interface of this hybrid system allowing direct coupling to meteorlogical data collection systems or/and meteorological models. Experiments with hypothetic oil spill are analyzed for the Northern Adriatic Sea. Results (animations) of mesoscale circulation and oil slick modeling are presented at wabsite http://thayer.dartmouth.edu/~cushman/adriatic/movies/

Evaluation of GOCE-based Global Geoid Models in Finnish Territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, Timo; Bilker-Koivula, Mirjam

2015-04-01

The gravity satellite mission GOCE made its final observations in the fall of 2013. By then it had exceeded its expected lifespan of one year with more than three additional years. Thus, the mission collected more data from the Earth's gravitational field than expected, and more comprehensive global geoid models have been derived ever since. The GOCE High-level Processing Facility (HPF) by ESA has published GOCE global gravity field models annually. We compared all of the 12 HPF-models as well as 3 additional GOCE, 11 GRACE and 6 combined GOCE+GRACE models with GPS-levelling data and gravity observations in Finland. The most accurate models were compared against high resolution global geoid models EGM96 and EGM2008. The models were evaluated up to three different degrees and order: 150 (the common maximum for the GRACE models), 240 (the common maximum for the GOCE models) and maximum. When coefficients up to degree and order 150 are used, the results of the GOCE models are comparable with the results of the latest GRACE models. Generally, all of the latest GOCE and GOCE+GRACE models give standard deviations of the height anomaly differences of around 15 cm and of gravity anomaly differences of around 10 mgal over Finland. The best solutions were not always achieved with the highest maximum degree and order of the satellite gravity field models, since the highest coefficients (above 240) may be less accurately determined. Over Finland, the latest GOCE and GOCE+GRACE models give similar results as the high resolution models EGM96 and EGM2008 when coefficients up to degree and order 240 are used. This is mainly due to the high resolution terrestrial data available in the area of Finland, which was used in the high resolution models.

NASA Day in Montgomery, Feb. 22, 2018

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-02-22

Officials from Marshall Space Flight Center discussed the state's role in leading America back to the Moon and on to Mars with elected officials, industry leaders, students and the public during the Aerospace States Association’s Alabama Aerospace Week in Montgomery, Ala. NASA was honored by the Alabama legislature with a resolution and proclamation from Gov. Kay Ivey recognizing the agency's achievements. Dr. Quentin T. Ross, Jr., President, Alabama State University, Astronaut Tracy Dyson, and MSFC Director Todd May talk to members of the media at Alabama State University.

Super-resolution biomolecular crystallography with low-resolution data.

PubMed

Schröder, Gunnar F; Levitt, Michael; Brunger, Axel T

2010-04-22

X-ray diffraction plays a pivotal role in the understanding of biological systems by revealing atomic structures of proteins, nucleic acids and their complexes, with much recent interest in very large assemblies like the ribosome. As crystals of such large assemblies often diffract weakly (resolution worse than 4 A), we need methods that work at such low resolution. In macromolecular assemblies, some of the components may be known at high resolution, whereas others are unknown: current refinement methods fail as they require a high-resolution starting structure for the entire complex. Determining the structure of such complexes, which are often of key biological importance, should be possible in principle as the number of independent diffraction intensities at a resolution better than 5 A generally exceeds the number of degrees of freedom. Here we introduce a method that adds specific information from known homologous structures but allows global and local deformations of these homology models. Our approach uses the observation that local protein structure tends to be conserved as sequence and function evolve. Cross-validation with R(free) (the free R-factor) determines the optimum deformation and influence of the homology model. For test cases at 3.5-5 A resolution with known structures at high resolution, our method gives significant improvements over conventional refinement in the model as monitored by coordinate accuracy, the definition of secondary structure and the quality of electron density maps. For re-refinements of a representative set of 19 low-resolution crystal structures from the Protein Data Bank, we find similar improvements. Thus, a structure derived from low-resolution diffraction data can have quality similar to a high-resolution structure. Our method is applicable to the study of weakly diffracting crystals using X-ray micro-diffraction as well as data from new X-ray light sources. Use of homology information is not restricted to X-ray crystallography and cryo-electron microscopy: as optical imaging advances to subnanometre resolution, it can use similar tools.

Accuracy of a high-resolution lidar terrain model under a conifer forest canopy

Treesearch

S.E. Reutebuch; R.J. McGaughey; H.-E. Andersen; W.W. Carson

2003-01-01

Airborne laser scanning systems can provide terrain elevation data for open areas with a vertical accuracy of 15 cm. In this study, a high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM) was produced from high-density lidar data. Vegetation in the 500-ha mountainous study area varied from bare ground to dense 70-year-old conifer forest. Conventional ground survey methods were...

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Shen, B.-W.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Putman, W.; Lee, T.; Yeh, K.-S.; Bosilovich, M.; Radakovich, J.

2004-01-01

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

The importance of improving the quality of emergency surgery for a regional quality collaborative.

PubMed

Smith, Margaret; Hussain, Adnan; Xiao, Jane; Scheidler, William; Reddy, Haritha; Olugbade, Kola; Cummings, Dustin; Terjimanian, Michael; Krapohl, Greta; Waits, Seth A; Campbell, Darrell; Englesbe, Michael J

2013-04-01

Within a large, statewide collaborative, significant improvement in surgical quality has been appreciated (9.0% reduction in morbidity for elective general and vascular surgery). Our group has not noted such quality improvement in the care of patients who had emergency operations. With this work, we aim to describe the scope of emergency surgical care within the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative, variations in outcomes among hospitals, and variations in adherence to evidence-based process measures. Overall, these data will form a basis for a broad-based quality improvement initiative within Michigan. We report morbidity, mortality, and costs of emergency and elective general and vascular surgery cases (N = 190,826) within 34 hospitals participating in the Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative from 2005 to 2010. Adjusted hospital-specific outcomes were calculated using a stepwise multivariable logistic regression model. Adjustment covariates included patient specific comorbidities and case complexity. Hospitals were also compared on the basis of their adherence to evidence-based process measures [measures at the patient level for each case-Surgical Care Improvement Project (SCIP)-1 and SCIP-2 compliance]. Emergency procedures account for approximately 11% of total cases, yet they represented 47% of mortalities and 28% of surgical complications. The complication-specific cost to payers was $126 million for emergency cases and $329 million for elective cases. Adjusted patient outcomes varied widely within Michigan Surgical Quality Collaborative hospitals; morbidity and mortality rates ranged from 16.3% to 33.9% and 4.0% to 12.4%, respectively. The variation among hospitals was not correlated with volume of emergency cases and case complexity. Hospital performance in emergency surgery was found to not depend on its share of emergent cases but rather was found to directly correlate with its performance in elective surgery. For emergency colectomies, there was a wide variation in compliance with SCIP-1 and SCIP-2 measures and overall compliance (42.0%) was markedly lower than that for elective colon surgery (81.7%). Emergency surgical procedures are an important target for future quality improvement efforts within Michigan. Future work will identify best practices within high-performing hospitals and disseminate these practices within the collaborative.

Optimization of the High-Frequency Radar Sites in the Bering Strait Region

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

and Daley 2000; Köhl and Stammer 2004) and was used extensively in dynam- ical sensitivity studies (e.g., Marotzke et al. 1999; Losch and Heimbach 2007 ...modeling (Winsor and Chapman 2004; Spall 2007 ; Watanabe and Hasumi 2009) studies suggest that Pacific waters enter the open AO through two pathways (Fig...S5 Ŵ21/2DBQT (11) is the sensitivity matrix (e.g., Köhl and Stammer 2004). By electing the trace of the covariance matrix as its norm, we employ the

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

DOE PAGES

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-10-22

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations,more » precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.« less

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations,more » precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.« less

5 CFR 891.201 - Election.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED) CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) RETIRED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFITS Election and Change of Election § 891.201 Election. (a) The original... election. For any other retired employee receiving compensation, changes of election made under this...

Analysis and modeling of atmospheric turbulence on the high-resolution space optical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lili, Jiang; Chen, Xiaomei; Ni, Guoqiang

2016-09-01

Modeling and simulation of optical remote sensing system plays an unslightable role in remote sensing mission predictions, imaging system design, image quality assessment. It has already become a hot research topic at home and abroad. Atmospheric turbulence influence on optical systems is attached more and more importance to as technologies of remote sensing are developed. In order to study the influence of atmospheric turbulence on earth observation system, the atmospheric structure parameter was calculated by using the weak atmospheric turbulence model; and the relationship of the atmospheric coherence length and high resolution remote sensing optical system was established; then the influence of atmospheric turbulence on the coefficient r0h of optical remote sensing system of ground resolution was derived; finally different orbit height of high resolution optical system imaging quality affected by atmospheric turbulence was analyzed. Results show that the influence of atmospheric turbulence on the high resolution remote sensing optical system, the resolution of which has reached sub meter level meter or even the 0.5m, 0.35m and even 0.15m ultra in recent years, image quality will be quite serious. In the above situation, the influence of the atmospheric turbulence must be corrected. Simulation algorithms of PSF are presented based on the above results. Experiment and analytical results are posted.

High-resolution remotely sensed small target detection by imitating fly visual perception mechanism.

PubMed

Huang, Fengchen; Xu, Lizhong; Li, Min; Tang, Min

2012-01-01

The difficulty and limitation of small target detection methods for high-resolution remote sensing data have been a recent research hot spot. Inspired by the information capture and processing theory of fly visual system, this paper endeavors to construct a characterized model of information perception and make use of the advantages of fast and accurate small target detection under complex varied nature environment. The proposed model forms a theoretical basis of small target detection for high-resolution remote sensing data. After the comparison of prevailing simulation mechanism behind fly visual systems, we propose a fly-imitated visual system method of information processing for high-resolution remote sensing data. A small target detector and corresponding detection algorithm are designed by simulating the mechanism of information acquisition, compression, and fusion of fly visual system and the function of pool cell and the character of nonlinear self-adaption. Experiments verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed small target detection model and fly-imitated visual perception method.

Single-shot spiral imaging at 7 T.

PubMed

Engel, Maria; Kasper, Lars; Barmet, Christoph; Schmid, Thomas; Vionnet, Laetitia; Wilm, Bertram; Pruessmann, Klaas P

2018-03-25

The purpose of this work is to explore the feasibility and performance of single-shot spiral MRI at 7 T, using an expanded signal model for reconstruction. Gradient-echo brain imaging is performed on a 7 T system using high-resolution single-shot spiral readouts and half-shot spirals that perform dual-image acquisition after a single excitation. Image reconstruction is based on an expanded signal model including the encoding effects of coil sensitivity, static off-resonance, and magnetic field dynamics. The latter are recorded concurrently with image acquisition, using NMR field probes. The resulting image resolution is assessed by point spread function analysis. Single-shot spiral imaging is achieved at a nominal resolution of 0.8 mm, using spiral-out readouts of 53-ms duration. High depiction fidelity is achieved without conspicuous blurring or distortion. Effective resolutions are assessed as 0.8, 0.94, and 0.98 mm in CSF, gray matter and white matter, respectively. High image quality is also achieved with half-shot acquisition yielding image pairs at 1.5-mm resolution. Use of an expanded signal model enables single-shot spiral imaging at 7 T with unprecedented image quality. Single-shot and half-shot spiral readouts deploy the sensitivity benefit of high field for rapid high-resolution imaging, particularly for functional MRI and arterial spin labeling. © 2018 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhao, Chun

This study presents a diagnosis of a multi-resolution approach using the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) for simulating regional climate. Four AMIP experiments are conducted for 1999-2009. In the first two experiments, MPAS-A is configured using global quasi-uniform grids at 120 km and 30 km grid spacing. In the other two experiments, MPAS-A is configured using variable-resolution (VR) mesh with local refinement at 30 km over North America and South America embedded inside a quasi-uniform domain at 120 km elsewhere. Precipitation and related fields in the four simulations are examined to determine how well the VR simulationsmore » reproduce the features simulated by the globally high-resolution model in the refined domain. In previous analyses of idealized aqua-planet simulations, the characteristics of the global high-resolution simulation in moist processes only developed near the boundary of the refined region. In contrast, the AMIP simulations with VR grids are able to reproduce the high-resolution characteristics across the refined domain, particularly in South America. This indicates the importance of finely resolved lower-boundary forcing such as topography and surface heterogeneity for the regional climate, and demonstrates the ability of the MPAS-A VR to replicate the large-scale moisture transport as simulated in the quasi-uniform high-resolution model. Outside of the refined domain, some upscale effects are detected through large-scale circulation but the overall climatic signals are not significant at regional scales. Our results provide support for the multi-resolution approach as a computationally efficient and physically consistent method for modeling regional climate.« less

Constraining regional scale carbon budgets at the US West Coast using a high-resolution atmospheric inverse modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goeckede, M.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Turner, D.; Law, B.

2009-04-01

The study presented is embedded within the NACP (North American Carbon Program) West Coast project ORCA2, which aims at determining the regional carbon balance of the US states Oregon, California and Washington. Our work specifically focuses on the effect of disturbance history and climate variability, aiming at improving our understanding of e.g. drought stress and stand age on carbon sources and sinks in complex terrain with fine-scale variability in land cover types. The ORCA2 atmospheric inverse modeling approach has been set up to capture flux variability on the regional scale at high temporal and spatial resolution. Atmospheric transport is simulated coupling the mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) with the STILT (Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport) footprint model. This setup allows identifying sources and sinks that influence atmospheric observations with highly resolved mass transport fields and realistic turbulent mixing. Terrestrial biosphere carbon fluxes are simulated at spatial resolutions of up to 1km and subdaily timesteps, considering effects of ecoregion, land cover type and disturbance regime on the carbon budgets. Our approach assimilates high-precision atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements and eddy-covariance data from several sites throughout the model domain, as well as high-resolution remote sensing products (e.g. LandSat, MODIS) and interpolated surface meteorology (DayMet, SOGS, PRISM). We present top-down modeling results that have been optimized using Bayesian inversion, reflecting the information on regional scale carbon processes provided by the network of high-precision CO2 observations. We address the level of detail (e.g. spatial and temporal resolution) that can be resolved by top-down modeling on the regional scale, given the uncertainties introduced by various sources for model-data mismatch. Our results demonstrate the importance of accurate modeling of carbon-water coupling, with the representation of water availability and drought stress playing a dominant role to capture spatially variable CO2 exchange rates in a region characterized by strong climatic gradients.

Linear mixing model applied to coarse resolution satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holben, Brent N.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.

1992-01-01

A linear mixing model typically applied to high resolution data such as Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer, Thematic Mapper, and Multispectral Scanner System is applied to the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer coarse resolution satellite data. The reflective portion extracted from the middle IR channel 3 (3.55 - 3.93 microns) is used with channels 1 (0.58 - 0.68 microns) and 2 (0.725 - 1.1 microns) to run the Constrained Least Squares model to generate fraction images for an area in the west central region of Brazil. The derived fraction images are compared with an unsupervised classification and the fraction images derived from Landsat TM data acquired in the same day. In addition, the relationship betweeen these fraction images and the well known NDVI images are presented. The results show the great potential of the unmixing techniques for applying to coarse resolution data for global studies.

High resolution change estimation of soil moisture and its assimilation into a land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Ujjwal

Near surface soil moisture plays an important role in hydrological processes including infiltration, evapotranspiration and runoff. These processes depend non-linearly on soil moisture and hence sub-pixel scale soil moisture variability characterization is important for accurate modeling of water and energy fluxes at the pixel scale. Microwave remote sensing has evolved as an attractive technique for global monitoring of near surface soil moisture. A radiative transfer model has been tested and validated for soil moisture retrieval from passive microwave remote sensing data under a full range of vegetation water content conditions. It was demonstrated that soil moisture retrieval errors of approximately 0.04 g/g gravimetric soil moisture are attainable with vegetation water content as high as 5 kg/m2. Recognizing the limitation of low spatial resolution associated with passive sensors, an algorithm that uses low resolution passive microwave (radiometer) and high resolution active microwave (radar) data to estimate soil moisture change at the spatial resolution of radar operation has been developed and applied to coincident Passive and Active L and S band (PALS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) datasets acquired during the Soil Moisture Experiments in 2002 (SMEX02) campaign with root mean square error of 10% and a 4 times enhancement in spatial resolution. The change estimation algorithm has also been used to estimate soil moisture change at 5 km resolution using AMSR-E soil moisture product (50 km) in conjunction with the TRMM-PR data (5 km) for a 3 month period demonstrating the possibility of high resolution soil moisture change estimation using satellite based data. Soil moisture change is closely related to precipitation and soil hydraulic properties. A simple assimilation framework has been implemented to investigate whether assimilation of surface layer soil moisture change observations into a hydrologic model will potentially improve it performance. Results indicate an improvement in model prediction of near surface and deep layer soil moisture content when the update is performed to the model state as compared to free model runs. It is also seen that soil moisture change assimilation is able to mitigate the effect of erroneous precipitation input data.

Magnetic Resonance Lymphography-Guided Selective High-Dose Lymph Node Irradiation in Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meijer, Hanneke J.M., E-mail: H.Meijer@rther.umcn.nl; Debats, Oscar A.; Kunze-Busch, Martina

2012-01-01

Purpose: To demonstrate the feasibility of magnetic resonance lymphography (MRL) -guided delineation of a boost volume and an elective target volume for pelvic lymph node irradiation in patients with prostate cancer. The feasibility of irradiating these volumes with a high-dose boost to the MRL-positive lymph nodes in conjunction with irradiation of the prostate using intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) was also investigated. Methods and Materials: In 4 prostate cancer patients with a high risk of lymph node involvement but no enlarged lymph nodes on CT and/or MRI, MRL detected pathological lymph nodes in the pelvis. These lymph nodes were identified and delineatedmore » on a radiotherapy planning CT to create a boost volume. Based on the location of the MRL-positive lymph nodes, the standard elective pelvic target volume was individualized. An IMRT plan with a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) was created with dose prescriptions of 42 Gy to the pelvic target volume, a boost to 60 Gy to the MRL-positive lymph nodes, and 72 Gy to the prostate. Results: All MRL-positive lymph nodes could be identified on the planning CT. This information could be used to delineate a boost volume and to individualize the pelvic target volume for elective irradiation. IMRT planning delivered highly acceptable radiotherapy plans with regard to the prescribed dose levels and the dose to the organs at risk (OARs). Conclusion: MRL can be used to select patients with limited lymph node involvement for pelvic radiotherapy. MRL-guided delineation of a boost volume and an elective pelvic target volume for selective high-dose lymph node irradiation with IMRT is feasible. Whether this approach will result in improved outcome for these patients needs to be investigated in further clinical studies.« less

An Introduction to PunchScan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popoveniuc, Stefan; Hosp, Ben

PunchScan is a precinct-read optical-scan balloting system that allows voters to take their ballot with them after scanning. This does not violate the secret ballot principle because the ballots cannot be read without secret information held by the distributed authority in charge of the election. In fact, this election authority will publish the ballots for everyone to see, allowing voters whose ballots were incorrectly omitted to complain. PunchScan vote-counting is performed in private by the election authority - who uses their secret information to decode the ballots - but is verified in public by an auditor.In this paper we describe how and why PunchScan works. We have kept most of the description at an outline level so that it may be used as a straw model of a cryptographic voting system.

29 CFR 452.103 - Primary elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... fifteen-day election notice requirement applies to any runoff election which may be held after an... election advises the members of the possibility of a runoff election and specifies such details as the time and place of such runoff election as may be necessary. ...

Modelling and observations of molecules in discs around young stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilee, John David

2013-04-01

This thesis contains a study of molecules within circumstellar discs around young stars. Firstly, the chemistry of a disc around a young, Class 0 protostar is modelled. Such discs are thought to be massive, and thus experience gravitational instabilities, which produce spiral density waves. These affect the chemistry in three ways; by desorbing molecules from dust grains, by providing extra energy for new reactions to take place, and by mixing the internal structure of the disc to provide a rich chemistry near the midplane. Secondly, high resolution near-infrared spectra of 20 massive young stellar objects are presented. The objects display CO first overtone bandhead emission, which is excited in the conditions expected within circumstellar discs. The emission is modelled using a simple analytic model of a Keplerian disc, and good fits are found to all spectra. On average, the discs correspond to being geometrically thin, spread across a wide range of inclinations. The discs are located within the dust sublimation radius, providing strong evidence that the CO emission originates in small gaseous discs, supporting the scenario in which massive stars form via disc accretion. Finally, medium resolution near-infrared spectra of 5 Herbig Ae/Be stars are presented. The spectra cover both CO bandhead and Br gamma emission. Accretion rates are derived from the measuring the Br gamma emission and through modelling the CO emission, however these accretion rates are found to be inconsistent. High resolution archival data of one of the targets is presented, and it is shown that this CO disc model is unable to fit the high resolution data. Therefore, it is concluded that to properly fit CO spectra, high resolution data are needed, and that previously published information determined from low resolution spectra should be treated with caution.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Sriver, Ryan L.

2018-01-01

High-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC-climate studies. Active air-sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC-ocean interactions, which can influence TC-climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high-resolution, multidecadal, global-scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (˜0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large-scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air-sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high-resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC-climate applications.

Realistic 3D computer model of the gerbil middle ear, featuring accurate morphology of bone and soft tissue structures.

PubMed

Buytaert, Jan A N; Salih, Wasil H M; Dierick, Manual; Jacobs, Patric; Dirckx, Joris J J

2011-12-01

In order to improve realism in middle ear (ME) finite-element modeling (FEM), comprehensive and precise morphological data are needed. To date, micro-scale X-ray computed tomography (μCT) recordings have been used as geometric input data for FEM models of the ME ossicles. Previously, attempts were made to obtain these data on ME soft tissue structures as well. However, due to low X-ray absorption of soft tissue, quality of these images is limited. Another popular approach is using histological sections as data for 3D models, delivering high in-plane resolution for the sections, but the technique is destructive in nature and registration of the sections is difficult. We combine data from high-resolution μCT recordings with data from high-resolution orthogonal-plane fluorescence optical-sectioning microscopy (OPFOS), both obtained on the same gerbil specimen. State-of-the-art μCT delivers high-resolution data on the 3D shape of ossicles and other ME bony structures, while the OPFOS setup generates data of unprecedented quality both on bone and soft tissue ME structures. Each of these techniques is tomographic and non-destructive and delivers sets of automatically aligned virtual sections. The datasets coming from different techniques need to be registered with respect to each other. By combining both datasets, we obtain a complete high-resolution morphological model of all functional components in the gerbil ME. The resulting 3D model can be readily imported in FEM software and is made freely available to the research community. In this paper, we discuss the methods used, present the resulting merged model, and discuss the morphological properties of the soft tissue structures, such as muscles and ligaments.

High-resolution modelling of waves, currents and sediment transport in the Catalan Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín; Grifoll, Manel; Pallares, Elena; Espino, Manuel

2013-04-01

In order to investigate coastal shelf dynamics, a sequence of high resolution multi-scale models have been implemented for the Catalan shelf (North-western Mediterranean Sea). The suite consists of a set of increasing-resolution nested models, based on the circulation model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modelling System), the wave model SWAN (Simulation Waves Nearshore) and the sediment transport model CSTM (Community Sediment Transport Model), covering different ranges of spatial (from ~1 km at shelf-slope regions to ~40 m around river mouth or local beaches) and temporal scales (from storms events to seasonal variability). Contributions in the understanding of local processes such as along-shelf dynamics in the inner-shelf, sediment dispersal from the river discharge or bi-directional wave-current interactions under different synoptic conditions and resolution have been obtained using the Catalan Coast as a pilot site. Numerical results have been compared with "ad-hoc" intensive field campaigns, data from observational models and remote sensing products. The results exhibit acceptable agreement with observations and the investigation has allowed developing generic knowledge and more efficient (process-based) strategies for the coastal and shelf management.

Impact of resolution on aerosol radiative feedbacks with in online-coupled chemistry/climate simulations (WRF-Chem) for EURO-CORDEX compliant domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Romero, Jose Maria; Baró, Rocío; Palacios-Peña, Laura; Jerez, Sonia; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Montávez, Juan Pedro

2016-04-01

Several studies have shown that a high spatial resolution in atmospheric model runs improves the simulation of some meteorological variables, such as precipitation, particularly extreme events and in regions with complex orography [1]. However, increasing model spatial resolution makes the computational time rise exponentially. Hence, very high resolution experiments on large domains can hamper the execution of climatic runs. This problem shoots up when using online-coupled chemistry climate models, making a careful evaluation of improvements versus costs mandatory. Under this umbrella, the objective of this work is to investigate the sensitivity of aerosol radiative feedbacks from online-coupled chemistry regional model simulations to the spatial resolution. For that, the WRF-Chem [2] model is used for a case study to simulate the episode occurring between July 25th and August 15th of 2010. It is characterized by a high loading of atmospheric aerosol particles coming mainly from wildfires over large European regions (Russia, Iberian Peninsula). Three spatial resolutions are used defined for Euro-Cordex compliant domains [3]: 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°. Anthropogenic emissions come from TNO databases [4]. The analysis focuses on air quality variables (mainly PM10, PM2.5), meteorological variables (temperature, radiation) and other aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth). The CPU time ratio for the different domains is 1 (0.44°), 4(0.22°) and 28(0.11°) (normalized times). Comparison among simulations and observations are analyzed. Preliminary results show the difficulty to justify the much larger computational cost of high-resolution experiments when comparing with observations from a meteorological point of view, despite the finer spatio-temporal detail of the obtained pollutant fields. [1] Prein, A. F. (2014, December). Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 1, p. 3893). [2] Grell, G. A., Peckham, S. E., Schmitz, R., McKeen, S. A., Frost, G., Skamarock, W. C., & Eder, B. (2005). Fully coupled "online" chemistry within the WRF model. Atmospheric Environment, 39(37), 6957-6975. [3] Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., ... & Georgopoulou, E. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14(2), 563-578. [4] Pouliot, G., Denier van der Gon, H., Kuenen, J., Makar, P., Zhang, J., Moran, M., 2015. Analysis of the emission inventories and model-ready emission datasets of Europe and North America for phase 2 of the AQMEII project. Atmos. Environ. 115, 345-360.

A Comparative Analysis of Factors Related to a Candidate's Success or Failure in the 1975 and 1977 Community School Board Elections in New York City.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Jonathan; Clawar, Harry J.

In 1960, the New York City Public School System was decentralized into 32 school districts with limited authority over elementary and junior high schools. Locally elected district community school boards were provided for by State legislation. In this study factors relevant to predicting a candidate's success or failure in the 1975 and 1977 school…

On the Importance of Spatial Resolution for Flap Side Edge Noise Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mineck, Raymond E.; Khorrami, Mehdi R.

2017-01-01

A spatial resolution study of flap tip flow and the effects on the farfield noise signature for an 18%-scale, semispan Gulfstream aircraft model are presented. The NASA FUN3D unstructured, compressible Navier-Stokes solver was used to perform the highly resolved, time-dependent, detached eddy simulations of the flow field associated with the flap for this high-fidelity aircraft model. Following our previous work on the same model, the latest computations were undertaken to determine the causes of deficiencies observed in our earlier predictions of the steady and unsteady surface pressures and off-surface flow field at the flap tip regions, in particular the outboard tip area, where the presence of a cavity at the side-edge produces very complex flow features and interactions. The present results show gradual improvement in steady loading at the outboard flap edge region with increasing spatial resolution, yielding more accurate fluctuating surface pressures, off-surface flow field, and farfield noise with improved high-frequency content when compared with wind tunnel measurements. The spatial resolution trends observed in the present study demonstrate that the deficiencies reported in our previous computations are mostly caused by inadequate spatial resolution and are not related to the turbulence model.

Vaginal birth after cesarean: new insights on maternal and neonatal outcomes.

PubMed

Guise, Jeanne-Marie; Denman, Mary Anna; Emeis, Cathy; Marshall, Nicole; Walker, Miranda; Fu, Rongwei; Janik, Rosalind; Nygren, Peggy; Eden, Karen B; McDonagh, Marian

2010-06-01

To systematically review the evidence about maternal and neonatal outcomes relating to vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Relevant studies were identified from multiple searches of MEDLINE, DARE, and the Cochrane databases (1980 to September 2009) and from recent systematic reviews, reference lists, reviews, editorials, Web sites, and experts. Inclusion criteria limited studies to the English-language and human studies conducted in the United States and developed countries specifically evaluating birth after previous cesarean delivery. Studies focusing on high-risk maternal or neonatal conditions, including breech vaginal delivery, or fewer than 10 patients were excluded. Poor-quality studies were not included in analyses. We identified 3,134 citations and reviewed 963 articles for inclusion; 203 articles met the inclusion criteria and were quality rated. Overall rates of maternal harms were low for both trial of labor and elective repeat cesarean delivery. Although rare in both elective repeat cesarean delivery and trial of labor, maternal mortality was significantly increased for elective repeat cesarean delivery at 0.013% compared with 0.004% for trial of labor. The rates of maternal hysterectomy, hemorrhage, and transfusions did not differ significantly between trial of labor and elective repeat cesarean delivery. The rate of uterine rupture for all women with prior cesarean was 0.30%, and the risk was significantly increased for trial of labor (0.47% compared with 0.03% for elective repeat cesarean delivery). Perinatal mortality was also significantly increased for trial of labor (0.13% compared with 0.05% for elective repeat cesarean delivery). Overall the best evidence suggests that VBAC is a reasonable choice for the majority of women. Adverse outcomes were rare for both elective repeat cesarean delivery and trial of labor. Definitive studies are lacking to identify patients who are at greatest risk for adverse outcomes.

First impressions: what are preclinical medical students in the US and Canada learning about sexual and reproductive health?

PubMed

Steinauer, Jody; LaRochelle, Flynn; Rowh, Marta; Backus, Lois; Sandahl, Yarrow; Foster, Angel

2009-07-01

This study evaluates the inclusion of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) topics in preclinical US and Canadian medical education. Between 2002 and 2005, we sent surveys to the student coordinators of active Medical Students for Choice chapters at 122 US and Canadian medical schools. Students reported on the preclinical curricular inclusion of 50 specific SRH topics in the broad categories of pregnancy, contraception, infertility, elective abortion, ethical and social issues, and other topics. We received 77 completed surveys, for an overall response rate of 63%. Coverage of pregnancy physiology and STIs/HIV was uniformly high. In contrast, inclusion of contraceptive methods and elective abortion procedures greatly varied by subtopic and geographic region. Thirty-three percent of respondents reported no coverage of elective abortion-related topics. Inclusion of contraception and elective abortion in preclinical medical school courses varies widely. As critical components of women's lives and health, we recommend that medical schools work to integrate comprehensive family planning content into their standard curricula.

Social influence and political mobilization: Further evidence from a randomized experiment in the 2012 U.S. presidential election

PubMed Central

Bond, Robert M.; Bakshy, Eytan; Eckles, Dean; Fowler, James H.

2017-01-01

A large-scale experiment during the 2010 U.S. Congressional Election demonstrated a positive effect of an online get-out-the-vote message on real world voting behavior. Here, we report results from a replication of the experiment conducted during the U.S. Presidential Election in 2012. In spite of the fact that get-out-the-vote messages typically yield smaller effects during high-stakes elections due to saturation of mobilization efforts from many sources, a significant increase in voting was again observed. Voting also increased significantly among the close friends of those who received the message to go to the polls, and the total effect on the friends was likely larger than the direct effect, suggesting that understanding social influence effects is potentially even more important than understanding the direct effects of messaging. These results replicate earlier work and they add to growing evidence that online social networks can be instrumental for spreading offline behaviors. PMID:28445476

Social influence and political mobilization: Further evidence from a randomized experiment in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

PubMed

Jones, Jason J; Bond, Robert M; Bakshy, Eytan; Eckles, Dean; Fowler, James H

2017-01-01

A large-scale experiment during the 2010 U.S. Congressional Election demonstrated a positive effect of an online get-out-the-vote message on real world voting behavior. Here, we report results from a replication of the experiment conducted during the U.S. Presidential Election in 2012. In spite of the fact that get-out-the-vote messages typically yield smaller effects during high-stakes elections due to saturation of mobilization efforts from many sources, a significant increase in voting was again observed. Voting also increased significantly among the close friends of those who received the message to go to the polls, and the total effect on the friends was likely larger than the direct effect, suggesting that understanding social influence effects is potentially even more important than understanding the direct effects of messaging. These results replicate earlier work and they add to growing evidence that online social networks can be instrumental for spreading offline behaviors.

Primary mucosal sinonasal melanoma—Case report and review of the literature. The role of complex treatment-surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Marinova, Lena; Yordanov, Kaloyan; Sapundgiev, Nikolay

2010-01-01

Aim The place of adjuvant radiotherapy in the treatment of sinonasal melanoma. Background Sinonasal mucosal melanoma is a rare disease with poor prognosis and requires a complex treatment. Elective neck dissection in patients with N0 and adjuvant radiotherapy has been a source of controversy. High late regional recurrence rates rise questions about elective irradiation of the neck nodes in patients with N0 stage disease. Methods We present our two years’ follow up in a case of locally advanced sinonasal melanoma and literature review of the treatment options for mucosal melanoma. Results In locally advanced sinonasal melanoma treated with surgical resection, postoperative radiotherapy and chemotherapy we had local tumor control. Two years later, a regional contralateral recurrence without distant metastasis occurred. Conclusions Literature data for frequent neck lymph nodes recurrences justify elective neck dissection. Postoperative elective neck radiotherapy for patients with locally advanced sinonasal melanoma and clinically N0 appears to decrease the rate of late regional recurrences. PMID:24376954

Simulation of population-based commuter exposure to NO₂ using different air pollution models.

PubMed

Ragettli, Martina S; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C

2014-05-12

We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m(-3), range: 21-61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas.

Linking rainforest ecophysiology and microclimate through fusion of airborne LiDAR and hyperspectral imagery

Treesearch

Eben N. Broadbent; Angélica M. Almeyda Zambrano; Gregory P. Asner; Christopher B. Field; Brad E. Rosenheim; Ty Kennedy-Bowdoin; David E. Knapp; David Burke; Christian Giardina; Susan Cordell

2014-01-01

We develop and validate a high-resolution three-dimensional model of light and air temperature for a tropical forest interior in Hawaii along an elevation gradient varying greatly in structure but maintaining a consistent species composition. Our microclimate models integrate high-resolution airborne waveform light detection and ranging data (LiDAR) and hyperspectral...

High-resolution numerical models for smoke transport in plumes from wildland fires

Treesearch

Philip Cunningham; Scott Goodrick

2013-01-01

A high-resolution large-eddy simulation (LES) model is employed to examine the fundamental structure and dynamics of buoyant plumes arising from heat sources representative of wildland fires. Herein we describe several aspects of the mean properties of the simulated plumes. Mean plume trajectories are apparently well described by the traditional two-thirds law for...

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Flamant, Cyrille; Dauhut, Thibaut; Kocha, Cécile; Lafore, Jean-Philippe; Lavaysse, Chistophe; Marnas, Fabien; Mokhtari, Mohamed; Pelon, Jacques; Reinares Martínez, Irene; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tulet, Pierre

2016-06-01

In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboureau, J. P.; Flamant, C.; Dauhut, T.; Lafore, J. P.; Lavaysse, C.; Pelon, J.; Schepanski, K.; Tulet, P.

2016-12-01

In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynam-ics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Converting emergency pilonidal abscess into an elective procedure.

PubMed

Hussain, Zeiad I; Aghahoseini, Assad; Alexander, David

2012-06-01

Improvements in outcome after surgery for elective pilonidal sinus disease have yet to be matched for those presenting with acute disease. Traditional approaches to the management of acute pilonidal abscess have been associated with slow healing and significant loss of working time. The aim of this study was to report our approach in which a temporizing intervention allows subsequent definitive treatment with low morbidity. This article presents a prospective cohort study. This study was performed in acute admissions to the Surgical Unit in York Teaching Hospital. Patients presenting with acute pilonidal abscess, not septic, immune-compromised, or diabetic, and without skin necrosis, underwent aspiration on the surgical ward. Aspiration of pilonidal abscess under local anesthetic was performed with the use of a wide-bore needle. The abscess cavity was drained to dryness, samples were sent to the laboratory for microbiology, and empirical oral antibiotics were commenced, covering anaerobes and aerobes. Review was arranged for within 7 days to plan elective excision and primary closure of the underlying pilonidal sinus. The primary outcomes measured were the number of days required to return to normal activities, response to treatment, and any residual inflammation. Fifty-six patients were referred with acute pilonidal abscess. Forty patients met the criteria for aspiration and empirical antibiotic treatment. All were allowed to go home the same day and were reviewed within a median of 5 days. Thirty-eight (38/40) patients demonstrated complete resolution of acute inflammation and were back to normal activities the following day. Fifteen patients subsequently underwent day-case excision and primary closure at a median of 9 weeks. Another 13 are awaiting surgery, and 10 patients have declined further treatment. Two (2/40) patients did not respond, one of whom did not receive the appropriate antibiotics. Both were managed with incision and drainage. Aspiration and antibiotic management of pilonidal abscess is effective in 95% of acute cases in preventing the need for emergent laying open and allows for subsequent elective surgery.

Development of Geospatial Map Based Election Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, A. Kumar Chandra; Kumar, P.; Vasanth Kumar, N.

2014-11-01

The Geospatial Delhi Limited (GSDL), a Govt. of NCT of Delhi Company formed in order to provide the geospatial information of National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCTD) to the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD) and its organs such as DDA, MCD, DJB, State Election Department, DMRC etc., for the benefit of all citizens of Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD). This paper describes the development of Geospatial Map based Election portal (GMEP) of NCT of Delhi. The portal has been developed as a map based spatial decision support system (SDSS) for pertain to planning and management of Department of Chief Electoral Officer, and as an election related information searching tools (Polling Station, Assembly and parliamentary constituency etc.,) for the citizens of NCTD. The GMEP is based on Client-Server architecture model. It has been developed using ArcGIS Server 10.0 with J2EE front-end on Microsoft Windows environment. The GMEP is scalable to enterprise SDSS with enterprise Geo Database & Virtual Private Network (VPN) connectivity. Spatial data to GMEP includes delimited precinct area boundaries of Voters Area of Polling stations, Assembly Constituency, Parliamentary Constituency, Election District, Landmark locations of Polling Stations & basic amenities (Police Stations, Hospitals, Schools and Fire Stations etc.). GMEP could help achieve not only the desired transparency and easiness in planning process but also facilitates through efficient & effective tools for management of elections. It enables a faster response to the changing ground realities in the development planning, owing to its in-built scientific approach and open-ended design.

Pre-departure training and the social accountability of International Medical Electives.

PubMed

Wallace, Lauren J; Webb, Allison

2014-01-01

Due to widespread awareness of global inequities in health and development, participation and interest in International Medical Electives has grown. However, it has been suggested that the benefits of these electives for students and communities may not outweigh the harms. Pre-departure training (PDT) has been proposed as a route through which participants can adequately prepare for their elective experience. Through a review of the current literature, this article explores the ethics of international medical electives using a social accountability framework and assesses the success of PDT in mitigating harms for students and communities. We find that the literature on PDT is limited. What is clear from completed studies is that the focus of PDT has often been centered on the clinical experience, while theories of development and health inequity remain minor topics. We argue that a greater benefit for students and communities could be gained from framing health inequity from a critical perspective, and integrating mandatory global health education into medical school curricula. We suggest that attention to only PDT is not enough. In a socially accountable program, community partnerships must be bilateral and respect communities as primary stakeholders in the training of students and in program evaluation. Unfortunately, research to-date has focused on the student experience; further studies of the community perspective would help to elicit how PDT and partnership models can be strengthened, improving the experiences of both students and communities. Finally, individual medical schools and organizations that offer global health elective experiences must ensure that they take responsibility for monitoring PDT.

Red Blood Cell Transfusion Need for Elective Primary Posterior Lumbar Fusion in A High-Volume Center for Spine Surgery

PubMed Central

Ristagno, Giuseppe; Beluffi, Simonetta; Tanzi, Dario; Belloli, Federica; Carmagnini, Paola; Croci, Massimo; D’Aviri, Giuseppe; Menasce, Guido; Pastore, Juan C.; Pellanda, Armando; Pollini, Alberto; Savoia, Giorgio

2018-01-01

(1) Background: This study evaluated the perioperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion need and determined predictors for transfusion in patients undergoing elective primary lumbar posterior spine fusion in a high-volume center for spine surgery. (2) Methods: Data from all patients undergoing spine surgery between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016 were reviewed. Patients’ demographics and comorbidities, perioperative laboratory results, and operative time were analyzed in relation to RBC transfusion. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of transfusion. (3) Results: A total of 874 elective surgeries for primary spine fusion were performed over the three years. Only 54 cases (6%) required RBC transfusion. Compared to the non-transfused patients, transfused patients were mainly female (p = 0.0008), significantly older, with a higher ASA grade (p = 0.0002), and with lower pre-surgery hemoglobin (HB) level and hematocrit (p < 0.0001). In the multivariate logistic regression, a lower pre-surgery HB (OR (95% CI) 2.84 (2.11–3.82)), a higher ASA class (1.77 (1.03–3.05)) and a longer operative time (1.02 (1.01–1.02)) were independently associated with RBC transfusion. (4) Conclusions: In the instance of elective surgery for primary posterior lumbar fusion in a high-volume center for spine surgery, the need for RBC transfusion is low. Factors anticipating transfusion should be taken into consideration in the patient’s pre-surgery preparation. PMID:29385760

11 CFR 9002.5 - Fund.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Fund. 9002.5 Section 9002.5 Federal Elections FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN FUND: GENERAL ELECTION FINANCING DEFINITIONS § 9002.5 Fund. Fund means the Presidential Election Campaign Fund established by 26 U.S.C. 9006(a). ...

11 CFR 9002.5 - Fund.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Fund. 9002.5 Section 9002.5 Federal Elections FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN FUND: GENERAL ELECTION FINANCING DEFINITIONS § 9002.5 Fund. Fund means the Presidential Election Campaign Fund established by 26 U.S.C. 9006(a). ...

The politics of hope and despair: the effect of presidential election outcomes on suicide rates.

PubMed

Classen, Timothy J; Dunn, Richard A

2010-01-01

This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed-effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate-4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk.

Are elected health boards an effective mechanism for public participation in health service governance?

PubMed Central

Gauld, Robin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background  There is growing interest in the idea of elected members on health service governing boards as a means to induce public participation in planning and decision making, yet studies of elected boards are limited. Whether elected boards are an effective mechanism for public participation remains unclear. Setting and participants  This article discusses the experiences of New Zealand where, since 2001, there have been three sets of elections for District Health Boards. Information on candidates and election results is presented along with data gathered via post‐election voter surveys. The article also considers the broader regulatory context within which the elected boards must operate. Discussion and conclusions  The New Zealand experience illustrates that elected health boards may not be an effective mechanism for public participation. Voter turnout has declined since the inaugural elections of 2001, and non‐voters form the majority. Reasons for not voting include failure to receive voting papers, a lack of interest, or no knowledge of elections. The elections have also failed to produce minority representation, while the capacity for elected members to represent their communities is subject to constraints. On the upside, elections have enabled public involvement in various dimensions of participation, including oversight and processes of governance. New Zealand’s mixed performance suggests that elected boards may need to be complemented with other participatory channels, if increased public participation is the goal. PMID:20579118

Are elected health boards an effective mechanism for public participation in health service governance?

PubMed

Gauld, Robin

2010-12-01

There is growing interest in the idea of elected members on health service governing boards as a means to induce public participation in planning and decision making, yet studies of elected boards are limited. Whether elected boards are an effective mechanism for public participation remains unclear. This article discusses the experiences of New Zealand where, since 2001, there have been three sets of elections for District Health Boards. Information on candidates and election results is presented along with data gathered via post-election voter surveys. The article also considers the broader regulatory context within which the elected boards must operate. The New Zealand experience illustrates that elected health boards may not be an effective mechanism for public participation. Voter turnout has declined since the inaugural elections of 2001, and non-voters form the majority. Reasons for not voting include failure to receive voting papers, a lack of interest, or no knowledge of elections. The elections have also failed to produce minority representation, while the capacity for elected members to represent their communities is subject to constraints. On the upside, elections have enabled public involvement in various dimensions of participation, including oversight and processes of governance. New Zealand's mixed performance suggests that elected boards may need to be complemented with other participatory channels, if increased public participation is the goal. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2013-12-01

In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

Provision of drugs for post-exposure prophylaxis of HIV for medical students on overseas electives.

PubMed

Franklin, G F; Gray, K; Nathwani, D

2001-10-01

To assess the need for, and the most practical way to provide, HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for medical students travelling to areas where this is not readily available. Follow-up questionnaire for all 140 students from Dundee University returning from their medical elective in 2000, 22 of whom took triple therapy for PEP with them on elective. 103/140 students (74%) returned questionnaires. 76/103 (74%) were involved in exposure-prone procedures and 38/103 (37%) reported a significant exposure to potentially infective fluids. Six of this group considered PEP but none reported using it. The greatest perceived risk on elective remained road accidents. 87/103 respondents thought a 24-h helpline for health issues on electives would be useful. A high number of students report significant exposure to potentially infected fluids and this needs to be urgently addressed. There was almost unanimous endorsement of the idea of providing PEP and when it is made easily available prior to travel, students are willing to take it to areas where it is not available. In response to the survey, the investigators are looking at how to increase the current limited supply of PEP (Students may have to pay part of the cost) and the best way to provide a helpline, as it is felt that this could have a broad impact on student safety on electives, not just for issues involving PEP. Copyright 2001 The British Infection Society.

The projected effectiveness of Clostridium difficile vaccination as part of an integrated infection control strategy.

PubMed

van Kleef, Esther; Deeny, Sarah R; Jit, Mark; Cookson, Barry; Goldenberg, Simon D; Edmunds, W John; Robotham, Julie V

2016-11-04

Early clinical trials of a Clostridium difficile toxoid vaccine show efficacy in preventing C. difficile infection (CDI). The optimal patient group to target for vaccination programmes remains unexplored. This study performed a model-based evaluation of the effectiveness of different CDI vaccination strategies, within the context of existing infection prevention and control strategies such as antimicrobial stewardship. An individual-based transmission model of CDI in a high-risk hospital setting was developed. The model incorporated data on patient movements between the hospital, and catchment populations from the community and long-term care facilities (LTCF), using English national and local level data for model-parameterisation. We evaluated vaccination of: (1) discharged patients who had an CDI-occurrence in the ward; (2) LTCF-residents; (3) Planned elective surgical admissions and (4) All three strategies combined. Without vaccination, 10.9 [Interquartile range: 10.0-11.8] patients per 1000 ward admissions developed CDI, of which 31% were ward-acquired. Immunising all three patient groups resulted in a 43% [42-44], reduction of ward-onset CDI on average. Among the strategies restricting vaccination to one target group, vaccinating elective surgical patients proved most effective (35% [34-36] reduction), but least efficient, requiring 146 [133-162] courses to prevent one ICU-onset case. Immunising LTCF residents was most efficient, requiring just 13 [11-16] courses to prevent one case, but considering this only comprised a small group of our hospital population, it only reduced ICU-onset CDI by 9% [8-11]. Vaccination proved most efficient when ward-based transmission rates and antimicrobial consumption were high. Strategy success depends on the interaction between hospital and catchment populations, and importantly, consideration of importations of CDI from outside the hospital which we found to substantially impact hospital dynamics. Vaccination may be most desirable in settings or patient groups where levels of broad-spectrum antimicrobial use are high and difficult to reduce. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel super-resolution camera model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Yi; Xu, Jie; Wang, Lin; Liu, Fei; Luo, Qiuhua; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Xiangli

2015-05-01

Aiming to realize super resolution(SR) to single image and video reconstruction, a super resolution camera model is proposed for the problem that the resolution of the images obtained by traditional cameras behave comparatively low. To achieve this function we put a certain driving device such as piezoelectric ceramics in the camera. By controlling the driving device, a set of continuous low resolution(LR) images can be obtained and stored instantaneity, which reflect the randomness of the displacements and the real-time performance of the storage very well. The low resolution image sequences have different redundant information and some particular priori information, thus it is possible to restore super resolution image factually and effectively. The sample method is used to derive the reconstruction principle of super resolution, which analyzes the possible improvement degree of the resolution in theory. The super resolution algorithm based on learning is used to reconstruct single image and the variational Bayesian algorithm is simulated to reconstruct the low resolution images with random displacements, which models the unknown high resolution image, motion parameters and unknown model parameters in one hierarchical Bayesian framework. Utilizing sub-pixel registration method, a super resolution image of the scene can be reconstructed. The results of 16 images reconstruction show that this camera model can increase the image resolution to 2 times, obtaining images with higher resolution in currently available hardware levels.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.

2017-12-01

A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

26 CFR 1.4-2 - Elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES Normal Taxes and Surtaxes § 1.4-2 Elections. (a) Making of election. The election to pay the optional tax imposed under section 3... tax under section 3 as an election to take the standard deduction, and for treating an election to...

Comments on “A Unified Representation of Deep Moist Convection in Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere. Part I”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Guang; Fan, Jiwen; Xu, Kuan-Man

2015-06-01

Arakawa and Wu (2013, hereafter referred to as AW13) recently developed a formal approach to a unified parameterization of atmospheric convection for high-resolution numerical models. The work is based on ideas formulated by Arakawa et al. (2011). It lays the foundation for a new parameterization pathway in the era of high-resolution numerical modeling of the atmosphere. The key parameter in this approach is convective cloud fraction. In conventional parameterization, it is assumed that <<1. This assumption is no longer valid when horizontal resolution of numerical models approaches a few to a few tens kilometers, since in such situations convective cloudmore » fraction can be comparable to unity. Therefore, they argue that the conventional approach to parameterizing convective transport must include a factor 1 - in order to unify the parameterization for the full range of model resolutions so that it is scale-aware and valid for large convective cloud fractions. While AW13’s approach provides important guidance for future convective parameterization development, in this note we intend to show that the conventional approach already has this scale awareness factor 1 - built in, although not recognized for the last forty years. Therefore, it should work well even in situations of large convective cloud fractions in high-resolution numerical models.« less

HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

EPA Science Inventory

High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deutsch, Jared L., E-mail: jdeutsch@ualberta.ca; Palmer, Kevin; Deutsch, Clayton V.

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit inmore » South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.« less

Single image super-resolution via an iterative reproducing kernel Hilbert space method.

PubMed

Deng, Liang-Jian; Guo, Weihong; Huang, Ting-Zhu

2016-11-01

Image super-resolution, a process to enhance image resolution, has important applications in satellite imaging, high definition television, medical imaging, etc. Many existing approaches use multiple low-resolution images to recover one high-resolution image. In this paper, we present an iterative scheme to solve single image super-resolution problems. It recovers a high quality high-resolution image from solely one low-resolution image without using a training data set. We solve the problem from image intensity function estimation perspective and assume the image contains smooth and edge components. We model the smooth components of an image using a thin-plate reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and the edges using approximated Heaviside functions. The proposed method is applied to image patches, aiming to reduce computation and storage. Visual and quantitative comparisons with some competitive approaches show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

First results of high-resolution modeling of Cenozoic subduction orogeny in Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, S.; Sobolev, S. V.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Krueger, F.; Quinteros, J.; Popov, A.

2016-12-01

The Andean Orogeny is the result of the upper-plate crustal shortening during the Cenozoic Nazca plate subduction beneath South America plate. With up to 300 km shortening, the Earth's second highest Altiplano-Puna Plateau was formed with a pronounced N-S oriented deformation diversity. Furthermore, the tectonic shortening in the Southern Andes was much less intensive and started much later. The mechanism of the shortening and the nature of N-S variation of its magnitude remain controversial. The previous studies of the Central Andes suggested that they might be related to the N-S variation in the strength of the lithosphere, friction coupling at slab interface, and are probably influenced by the interaction of the climate and tectonic systems. However, the exact nature of the strength variation was not explored due to the lack of high numerical resolution and 3D numerical models at that time. Here we will employ large-scale subduction models with a high resolution to reveal and quantify the factors controlling the strength of lithospheric structures and their effect on the magnitude of tectonic shortening in the South America plate between 18°-35°S. These high-resolution models are performed by using the highly scalable parallel 3D code LaMEM (Lithosphere and Mantle Evolution Model). This code is based on finite difference staggered grid approach and employs massive linear and non-linear solvers within the PETSc library to complete high-performance MPI-based parallelization in geodynamic modeling. Currently, in addition to benchmark-models we are developing high-resolution (< 1km) 2D subduction models with application to Nazca-South America convergence. In particular, we will present the models focusing on the effect of friction reduction in the Paleozoic-Cenozoic sediments above the uppermost crust in the Subandean Ranges. Future work will be focused on the origin of different styles of deformation and topography evolution in Altiplano-Puna Plateau and Central-Southern Andes through 3D modeling of large-scale interaction of subducting and overriding plates.

High Resolution Global Topography of Eros from NEAR Imaging and LIDAR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaskell, Robert W.; Konopliv, A.; Barnouin-Jha, O.; Scheeres, D.

2006-01-01

Principal Data Products: Ensemble of L-maps from SPC, Spacecraft state, Asteroid pole and rotation. Secondary Products: Global topography model, inertia tensor, gravity. Composite high resolution topography. Three dimensional image maps.

Pediatric surgical capacity building - a pathway to improving access to pediatric surgical care in Haiti.

PubMed

Kaseje, Neema; Jenny, Hillary; Jeudy, Andre Patrick; MacLee, Jean Louis; Meara, John G; Ford, Henri R

2018-02-01

Lack of human resources is a major barrier to accessing pediatric surgical care globally. Our aim was to establish a model for pediatric surgical training of general surgery residents in a resource constrained region. A pediatric surgical program with a pediatric surgical rotation for general surgery residents in a tertiary hospital in Haiti in 2015 was established. We conducted twice daily patient rounds, ran an outpatient clinic, and provided emergent and elective pediatric surgical care, with tasks progressively given to residents until they could run clinic and perform the most common elective and emergent procedures. We conducted baseline and post-intervention knowledge exams and dedicated 1 day a week to teaching and research activities. We measured the following outcomes: number of residents that completed the rotation, mean pre and post intervention test scores, patient volume in clinic and operating room, postoperative outcomes, resident ability to perform most common elective and emergent procedures, and resident participation in research. Nine out of 9 residents completed the rotation; 987 patients were seen in outpatient clinic, and 564 procedures were performed in children <15years old. There was a 50% increase in volume of pediatric cases and a 100% increase in procedures performed in children <4years old. Postoperative outcomes were: 0% mortality for elective cases and 18% mortality for emergent cases, 3% complication rate for elective cases and 6% complication rate for emergent cases. Outcomes did not change with increased responsibility given to residents. All senior residents (n=4) could perform the most common elective and emergent procedures without changes in mortality and complication rates. Increases in mean pre and post intervention test scores were 12% (PGY1), 24% (PGY2), and 10% (PGY3). 75% of senior residents participated in research activities as first or second authors. Establishing a program in pediatric surgery with capacity building of general surgery residents for pediatric surgical care provision is feasible in a resource constrained setting without negative effects on patient outcomes. This model can be applied in other resource constrained settings to increase human resources for global pediatric surgical care provision. III. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Mirin, A

2007-01-19

We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and oceanmore » circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.« less

Analysis and characterization of high-resolution and high-aspect-ratio imaging fiber bundles.

PubMed

Motamedi, Nojan; Karbasi, Salman; Ford, Joseph E; Lomakin, Vitaliy

2015-11-10

High-contrast imaging fiber bundles (FBs) are characterized and modeled for wide-angle and high-resolution imaging applications. Scanning electron microscope images of FB cross sections are taken to measure physical parameters and verify the variations of irregular fibers due to the fabrication process. Modal analysis tools are developed that include irregularities in the fiber core shapes and provide results in agreement with experimental measurements. The modeling demonstrates that the irregular fibers significantly outperform a perfectly regular "ideal" array. Using this method, FBs are designed that can provide high contrast with core pitches of only a few wavelengths of the guided light. Structural modifications of the commercially available FB can reduce the core pitch by 60% for higher resolution image relay.

Stochastic Downscaling of Digital Elevation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasera, Luiz Gustavo; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Lane, Stuart N.

2016-04-01

High-resolution digital elevation models (HR-DEMs) are extremely important for the understanding of small-scale geomorphic processes in Alpine environments. In the last decade, remote sensing techniques have experienced a major technological evolution, enabling fast and precise acquisition of HR-DEMs. However, sensors designed to measure elevation data still feature different spatial resolution and coverage capabilities. Terrestrial altimetry allows the acquisition of HR-DEMs with centimeter to millimeter-level precision, but only within small spatial extents and often with dead ground problems. Conversely, satellite radiometric sensors are able to gather elevation measurements over large areas but with limited spatial resolution. In the present study, we propose an algorithm to downscale low-resolution satellite-based DEMs using topographic patterns extracted from HR-DEMs derived for example from ground-based and airborne altimetry. The method consists of a multiple-point geostatistical simulation technique able to generate high-resolution elevation data from low-resolution digital elevation models (LR-DEMs). Initially, two collocated DEMs with different spatial resolutions serve as an input to construct a database of topographic patterns, which is also used to infer the statistical relationships between the two scales. High-resolution elevation patterns are then retrieved from the database to downscale a LR-DEM through a stochastic simulation process. The output of the simulations are multiple equally probable DEMs with higher spatial resolution that also depict the large-scale geomorphic structures present in the original LR-DEM. As these multiple models reflect the uncertainty related to the downscaling, they can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of phenomena that are dependent on fine topography, such as catchment hydrological processes. The proposed methodology is illustrated for a case study in the Swiss Alps. A swissALTI3D HR-DEM (with 5 m resolution) and a SRTM-derived LR-DEM from the Western Alps are used to downscale a SRTM-based LR-DEM from the eastern part of the Alps. The results show that the method is capable of generating multiple high-resolution synthetic DEMs that reproduce the spatial structure and statistics of the original DEM.

GIEMS-D3: A new long-term, dynamical, high-spatial resolution inundation extent dataset at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aires, Filipe; Miolane, Léo; Prigent, Catherine; Pham Duc, Binh; Papa, Fabrice; Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne; Lehner, Bernhard

2017-04-01

The Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) provides multi-year monthly variations of the global surface water extent at 25kmx25km resolution. It is derived from multiple satellite observations. Its spatial resolution is usually compatible with climate model outputs and with global land surface model grids but is clearly not adequate for local applications that require the characterization of small individual water bodies. There is today a strong demand for high-resolution inundation extent datasets, for a large variety of applications such as water management, regional hydrological modeling, or for the analysis of mosquitos-related diseases. A new procedure is introduced to downscale the GIEMS low spatial resolution inundations to a 3 arc second (90 m) dataset. The methodology is based on topography and hydrography information from the HydroSHEDS database. A new floodability index is adopted and an innovative smoothing procedure is developed to ensure the smooth transition, in the high-resolution maps, between the low-resolution boxes from GIEMS. Topography information is relevant for natural hydrology environments controlled by elevation, but is more limited in human-modified basins. However, the proposed downscaling approach is compatible with forthcoming fusion with other more pertinent satellite information in these difficult regions. The resulting GIEMS-D3 database is the only high spatial resolution inundation database available globally at the monthly time scale over the 1993-2007 period. GIEMS-D3 is assessed by analyzing its spatial and temporal variability, and evaluated by comparisons to other independent satellite observations from visible (Google Earth and Landsat), infrared (MODIS) and active microwave (SAR).

Teaching technological innovation and entrepreneurship in polymeric biomaterials.

PubMed

Washburn, Newell R

2011-01-01

A model for incorporating an entrepreneurship module has been developed in an upper-division and graduate-level engineering elective on Polymeric Biomaterials (27-311/42-311/27-711/42-711) at Carnegie Mellon University. A combination of lectures, assignments, and a team-based project were used to provide students with a framework for applying their technical skills in the development of new technologies and a basic understanding of the issues related to translational research and technology commercialization. The specific approach to the project established in the course, which represented 20% of the students' grades, and the grading rubric for each of the milestones are described along with suggestions for generalizing this approach to different applications of biomaterials or other engineering electives. Incorporating this model of entrepreneurship into electives teaches students course content within the framework of technological innovation and many of the concepts and tools need to practice it. For students with situational or individual interest in the project, it would also serve to deepen their understanding of the traditional course components as well as provide a foundation for integrating technological innovation and lifelong learning. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Teaching Technological Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Polymeric Biomaterials

PubMed Central

Washburn, Newell R.

2010-01-01

A model for incorporating an entrepreneurship module has been developed in an upper-division and graduate-level engineering elective on Polymeric Biomaterials (27-311/42-311/27-711/42-711) at Carnegie Mellon University. A combination of lectures, assignments, and a team-based project were used to provide students with a framework for applying their technical skills in the development of new technologies and a basic understanding of the issues related to translational research and technology commercialization. The specific approach to the project established in the course, which represented 20% of the students’ grades, and the grading rubric for each of the milestones are described along with suggestions for generalizing this approach to different applications of biomaterials or other engineering electives. Incorporating this model of entrepreneurship into electives teaches students course content within the framework of technological innovation and many of the concepts and tools need to practice it. For students with situational or individual interest in the project, it would also serve to deepen their understanding of the traditional course components as well as provide a foundation for integrating technological innovation and lifelong learning. PMID:20949575

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

Sensitivity studies of high-resolution RegCM3 simulations of precipitation over the European Alps: the effect of lateral boundary conditions and domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadeem, Imran; Formayer, Herbert

2016-11-01

A suite of high-resolution (10 km) simulations were performed with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to study the effect of various lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), domain size, and intermediate domains on simulated precipitation over the Great Alpine Region. The boundary conditions used were ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis with grid spacing 0.75∘, the ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis with grid spacing 1.125 and 2.5∘, and finally the 2.5∘ NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis. The model was run in one-way nesting mode with direct nesting of the high-resolution RCM (horizontal grid spacing Δx = 10 km) with driving reanalysis, with one intermediate resolution nest (Δx = 30 km) between high-resolution RCM and reanalysis forcings, and also with two intermediate resolution nests (Δx = 90 km and Δx = 30 km) for simulations forced with LBC of resolution 2.5∘. Additionally, the impact of domain size was investigated. The results of multiple simulations were evaluated using different analysis techniques, e.g., Taylor diagram and a newly defined useful statistical parameter, called Skill-Score, for evaluation of daily precipitation simulated by the model. It has been found that domain size has the major impact on the results, while different resolution and versions of LBCs, e.g., 1.125∘ ERA40 and 0.7∘ ERA-Interim, do not produce significantly different results. It is also noticed that direct nesting with reasonable domain size, seems to be the most adequate method for reproducing precipitation over complex terrain, while introducing intermediate resolution nests seems to deteriorate the results.

Unraveling the martian water cycle with high-resolution global climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pottier, Alizée; Forget, François; Montmessin, Franck; Navarro, Thomas; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Szantai, André; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste

2017-07-01

Global climate modeling of the Mars water cycle is usually performed at relatively coarse resolution (200 - 300km), which may not be sufficient to properly represent the impact of waves, fronts, topography effects on the detailed structure of clouds and surface ice deposits. Here, we present new numerical simulations of the annual water cycle performed at a resolution of 1° × 1° (∼ 60 km in latitude). The model includes the radiative effects of clouds, whose influence on the thermal structure and atmospheric dynamics is significant, thus we also examine simulations with inactive clouds to distinguish the direct impact of resolution on circulation and winds from the indirect impact of resolution via water ice clouds. To first order, we find that the high resolution does not dramatically change the behavior of the system, and that simulations performed at ∼ 200 km resolution capture well the behavior of the simulated water cycle and Mars climate. Nevertheless, a detailed comparison between high and low resolution simulations, with reference to observations, reveal several significant changes that impact our understanding of the water cycle active today on Mars. The key northern cap edge dynamics are affected by an increase in baroclinic wave strength, with a complication of northern summer dynamics. South polar frost deposition is modified, with a westward longitudinal shift, since southern dynamics are also influenced. Baroclinic wave mode transitions are observed. New transient phenomena appear, like spiral and streak clouds, already documented in the observations. Atmospheric circulation cells in the polar region exhibit a large variability and are fine structured, with slope winds. Most modeled phenomena affected by high resolution give a picture of a more turbulent planet, inducing further variability. This is challenging for long-period climate studies.

LOR-interleaving image reconstruction for PET imaging with fractional-crystal collimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yusheng; Matej, Samuel; Karp, Joel S.; Metzler, Scott D.

2015-01-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) has become an important modality in medical and molecular imaging. However, in most PET applications, the resolution is still mainly limited by the physical crystal sizes or the detector’s intrinsic spatial resolution. To achieve images with better spatial resolution in a central region of interest (ROI), we have previously proposed using collimation in PET scanners. The collimator is designed to partially mask detector crystals to detect lines of response (LORs) within fractional crystals. A sequence of collimator-encoded LORs is measured with different collimation configurations. This novel collimated scanner geometry makes the reconstruction problem challenging, as both detector and collimator effects need to be modeled to reconstruct high-resolution images from collimated LORs. In this paper, we present a LOR-interleaving (LORI) algorithm, which incorporates these effects and has the advantage of reusing existing reconstruction software, to reconstruct high-resolution images for PET with fractional-crystal collimation. We also develop a 3D ray-tracing model incorporating both the collimator and crystal penetration for simulations and reconstructions of the collimated PET. By registering the collimator-encoded LORs with the collimator configurations, high-resolution LORs are restored based on the modeled transfer matrices using the non-negative least-squares method and EM algorithm. The resolution-enhanced images are then reconstructed from the high-resolution LORs using the MLEM or OSEM algorithm. For validation, we applied the LORI method to a small-animal PET scanner, A-PET, with a specially designed collimator. We demonstrate through simulated reconstructions with a hot-rod phantom and MOBY phantom that the LORI reconstructions can substantially improve spatial resolution and quantification compared to the uncollimated reconstructions. The LORI algorithm is crucial to improve overall image quality of collimated PET, which can have significant implications in preclinical and clinical ROI imaging applications.

High resolution modeling of a small urban catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skouri-Plakali, Ilektra; Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2016-04-01

Flooding is one of the most complex issues that urban environments have to deal with. In France, flooding remains the first natural risk with 72% of decrees state of natural disaster issued between October 1982 and mid-November 2014. Flooding is a result of meteorological extremes that are usually aggravated by the hydrological behavior of urban catchments and human factors. The continuing urbanization process is indeed changing the whole urban water cycle by limiting the infiltration and promoting runoff. Urban environments are very complex systems due to their extreme variability, the interference between human activities and natural processes but also the effect of the ongoing urbanization process that changes the landscape and hardly influences their hydrologic behavior. Moreover, many recent works highlight the need to simulate all urban water processes at their specific temporal and spatial scales. However, considering urban catchments heterogeneity still challenging for urban hydrology, even after advances noticed in term of high-resolution data collection and computational resources. This issue is more to be related to the architecture of urban models being used and how far these models are ready to take into account the extreme variability of urban catchments. In this work, high spatio-temporal resolution modeling is performed for a small and well-equipped urban catchment. The aim of this work is to identify urban modeling needs in terms of spatial and temporal resolution especially for a very small urban area (3.7 ha urban catchment located in the Perreux-sur-Marne city at the southeast of Paris) MultiHydro model was selected to carry out this work, it is a physical based and fully distributed model that interacts four existing modules each of them representing a portion of the water cycle in urban environments. MultiHydro was implemented at 10m, 5m and 2m resolution. Simulations were performed at different spatio-temporal resolutions and analyzed with respect to real flow measurements. First Results coming out show improvements obtained in terms of the model performance at high spatio-temporal resolution.

Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

2012-01-01

Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

EMRinger: side chain–directed model and map validation for 3D cryo-electron microscopy

DOE PAGES

Barad, Benjamin A.; Echols, Nathaniel; Wang, Ray Yu-Ruei; ...

2015-08-17

Advances in high-resolution cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) require the development of validation metrics to independently assess map quality and model geometry. We report that EMRinger is a tool that assesses the precise fitting of an atomic model into the map during refinement and shows how radiation damage alters scattering from negatively charged amino acids. EMRinger (https://github.com/fraser-lab/EMRinger) will be useful for monitoring progress in resolving and modeling high-resolution features in cryo-EM.

Estimation of trabecular bone parameters in children from multisequence MRI using texture-based regression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lekadir, Karim, E-mail: karim.lekadir@upf.edu; Hoogendoorn, Corné; Armitage, Paul

Purpose: This paper presents a statistical approach for the prediction of trabecular bone parameters from low-resolution multisequence magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in children, thus addressing the limitations of high-resolution modalities such as HR-pQCT, including the significant exposure of young patients to radiation and the limited applicability of such modalities to peripheral bones in vivo. Methods: A statistical predictive model is constructed from a database of MRI and HR-pQCT datasets, to relate the low-resolution MRI appearance in the cancellous bone to the trabecular parameters extracted from the high-resolution images. The description of the MRI appearance is achieved between subjects by usingmore » a collection of feature descriptors, which describe the texture properties inside the cancellous bone, and which are invariant to the geometry and size of the trabecular areas. The predictive model is built by fitting to the training data a nonlinear partial least square regression between the input MRI features and the output trabecular parameters. Results: Detailed validation based on a sample of 96 datasets shows correlations >0.7 between the trabecular parameters predicted from low-resolution multisequence MRI based on the proposed statistical model and the values extracted from high-resolution HRp-QCT. Conclusions: The obtained results indicate the promise of the proposed predictive technique for the estimation of trabecular parameters in children from multisequence MRI, thus reducing the need for high-resolution radiation-based scans for a fragile population that is under development and growth.« less

5 CFR 839.621 - Can I cancel my FERS election if I was in the wrong retirement plan at the time I elected FERS...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Can I cancel my FERS election if I was in the wrong retirement plan at the time I elected FERS coverage and I have an election opportunity under... ERRONEOUS RETIREMENT COVERAGE CORRECTIONS ACT Making an Election Fers Elections § 839.621 Can I cancel my...

Atypia in random periareolar fine-needle aspiration affects the decision of women at high risk to take tamoxifen for breast cancer chemoprevention.

PubMed

Goldenberg, Vanessa K; Seewaldt, Victoria L; Scott, Victoria; Bean, Gregory R; Broadwater, Gloria; Fabian, Carol; Kimler, Bruce; Zalles, Carola; Lipkus, Isaac M

2007-05-01

Random periareolar fine-needle aspiration (RPFNA) is a research procedure designed to (a) evaluate short-term breast cancer risk in women at high risk for developing breast cancer, and (b) track response to chemoprevention. Of import, cellular atypia in breast RPFNA is prospectively associated with a 5.6-fold increase in breast cancer risk in women at high risk. Among 99 women attending a clinic for high-risk breast cancer, we explored the effects of RPFNA cytology results on decision making pertaining to the use of tamoxifen for breast cancer chemoprevention. No patient with nonproliferative or hyperplastic cytology subsequently elected to take tamoxifen. Only 7% of subjects with borderline atypia elected to take tamoxifen. In contrast, 50% with atypia elected to take tamoxifen. These results suggest that the provision of a biomarker of short-term risk can affect the motivation to take tamoxifen for chemoprevention. This conclusion is informative given that tamoxifen, due to its side effects, is often underused by women at high risk of developing breast cancer. Further research is needed to determine the mechanisms through which RPFNA results affect the decision to use tamoxifen, or any other breast cancer chemopreventive agent.

78 FR 51189 - Filing Dates for the Alabama Special Elections in the 1st Congressional District

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-20

... 1st Congressional District AGENCY: Federal Election Commission. ACTION: Notice of filing dates for... Congressional District vacated by Representative Jo Bonner. There are three possible special elections, but only... Election, the top two vote-getters will participate in a Special Runoff Election. General Election...

4 CFR 28.116 - Conduct of elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... collective bargaining agent, or withdraw such a designation; (3) Order a runoff or an additional election, if... runoff election may be held. (i) Runoff election. The Board may order a runoff election where one or more... employees eligible to vote, but none has gained a majority of the votes cast. The runoff election will be...

77 FR 56208 - Filing Dates for the Kentucky Special Election in the 4th Congressional District

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-12

... FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION [Notice 2012-06] Filing Dates for the Kentucky Special Election in the 4th Congressional District AGENCY: Federal Election Commission. ACTION: Notice of filing dates for special election. SUMMARY: Kentucky has scheduled a general election on November 6, 2012, to fill the U.S...

Wind-Stress Dust Lifting in a Mars Global Circulation Model: Representation across Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, R.; Lewis, S.; Balme, M. R.; Steele, L.

2017-12-01

The formation of Martian dust storms is believed to be driven by dust lifting by near-surface wind stress (NSWS). Accurately representing this dust lifting within Mars Global Circulation Models (MGCMs) is important in order to gain a full understanding of the Martian dust storm cycle. Parameterisations of dust lifting by NSWS exist within several MGCMs; implementations differ but they all follow a similar design, so progress within one model is relevant to the entire field. Few studies have explored in detail how the results of these parameterisations can be affected by changing the horizontal resolution of the model. An accurate parameterisation of dust lifting by NSWS will lift a representative dust mass, reproducing characteristic dust optical depths in the atmosphere. The geographical distribution of the dust lifting by NSWS will also change throughout the year, affecting patterns of dust storm formation and development. Currently, suitable values for dust lifting parameters must be identified at every new model resolution. Resolutions of 5° latitude x 5° longitude are often used to model the Martian climate, as thermal tides and long-term weather patterns can be well represented at this resolution. However, smaller scale phenomena (such as near-surface winds driven by local topography) cannot be accurately depicted at this resolution. We use the LMD-UK MGCM to complete multi-year simulations across multiple model resolutions. Our experiments range from `low' resolution 5° lat x 5° lon to `high' resolution 1° lat x 1° lon. In experiments with fixed, constant lifting parameters, we find that higher resolution simulations lift more dust, but that this trend is asymptotic. At low resolutions, dust lifting increases proportionately with the increase in number of horizontal gridboxes. However, at high resolutions, doubling the number of gridboxes results only in a 30% increase in the total dust mass lifted. Geographical and temporal distributions of dust lifting are investigated, as well as the total dust lifted, in order to assess the optimum parameters for each resolution, and to develop a calibration scheme for this dust lifting across model resolutions. The scheme is verified through comparison with spacecraft observations of dust optical depths and dust storm locations.