A Cross-Sectional Comparison of the Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoover, Jill R.; Storkel, Holly L.; Hogan, Tiffany P.

2010-01-01

Two experiments examined the effects of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by 3-, 4-, and 5-year-old children. Nonwords orthogonally varying in probability and density were taught with learning and retention measured via picture naming. Experiment 1 used a within story probability/across story density exposure…

The relation between the column density structures and the magnetic field orientation in the Vela C molecular complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soler, J. D.; Ade, P. A. R.; Angilè, F. E.; Ashton, P.; Benton, S. J.; Devlin, M. J.; Dober, B.; Fissel, L. M.; Fukui, Y.; Galitzki, N.; Gandilo, N. N.; Hennebelle, P.; Klein, J.; Li, Z.-Y.; Korotkov, A. L.; Martin, P. G.; Matthews, T. G.; Moncelsi, L.; Netterfield, C. B.; Novak, G.; Pascale, E.; Poidevin, F.; Santos, F. P.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Shariff, J. A.; Thomas, N. E.; Tucker, C. E.; Tucker, G. S.; Ward-Thompson, D.

2017-07-01

We statistically evaluated the relative orientation between gas column density structures, inferred from Herschel submillimetre observations, and the magnetic field projected on the plane of sky, inferred from polarized thermal emission of Galactic dust observed by the Balloon-borne Large-Aperture Submillimetre Telescope for Polarimetry (BLASTPol) at 250, 350, and 500 μm, towards the Vela C molecular complex. First, we find very good agreement between the polarization orientations in the three wavelength-bands, suggesting that, at the considered common angular resolution of 3.´0 that corresponds to a physical scale of approximately 0.61 pc, the inferred magnetic field orientation is not significantly affected by temperature or dust grain alignment effects. Second, we find that the relative orientation between gas column density structures and the magnetic field changes progressively with increasing gas column density, from mostly parallel or having no preferred orientation at low column densities to mostly perpendicular at the highest column densities. This observation is in agreement with previous studies by the Planck collaboration towards more nearby molecular clouds. Finally, we find a correspondencebetween (a) the trends in relative orientation between the column density structures and the projected magnetic field; and (b) the shape of the column density probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the sub-regions of Vela C dominated by one clear filamentary structure, or "ridges", where the high-column density tails of the PDFs are flatter, we find a sharp transition from preferentially parallel or having no preferred relative orientation at low column densities to preferentially perpendicular at highest column densities. In the sub-regions of Vela C dominated by several filamentary structures with multiple orientations, or "nests", where the maximum values of the column density are smaller than in the ridge-like sub-regions and the high-column density tails of the PDFs are steeper, such a transition is also present, but it is clearly less sharp than in the ridge-like sub-regions. Both of these results suggest that the magnetic field is dynamically important for the formation of density structures in this region.

Analyzing remote sensing geobotanical trends in Quetico Provincial Park, Ontario, Canada, using digital elevation data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, Timothy A.; Campagna, David J.; Levandowski, Don W.; Cetin, Haluk; Evans, Carla S.

1991-01-01

A 10 x 13-km area in Quetico Provincial Park, Canada has been studied using a digital elevation model to separate different drainage classes and to examine the influence of site factors and lithology on vegetation. Landsat Thematic Mapper data have been classified into six forest classes of varying deciduous-coniferous cover through nPDF, a procedure based on probability density functions. It is shown that forests growing on mafic lithologies are enriched in deciduous species, compared to those growing on granites. Of the forest classes found on mafics, the highest coniferous component was on north facing slopes, and the highest deciduous component on south facing slopes. Granites showed no substantial variation between site classes. The digital elevation derived site data is considered to be an important tool in geobotanical investigations.

High Discharge Energy Density at Low Electric Field Using an Aligned Titanium Dioxide/Lead Zirconate Titanate Nanowire Array.

PubMed

Zhang, Dou; Liu, Weiwei; Guo, Ru; Zhou, Kechao; Luo, Hang

2018-02-01

Polymer-based capacitors with high energy density have attracted significant attention in recent years due to their wide range of potential applications in electronic devices. However, the obtained high energy density is predominantly dependent on high applied electric field, e.g., 400-600 kV mm -1 , which may bring more challenges relating to the failure probability. Here, a simple two-step method for synthesizing titanium dioxide/lead zirconate titanate nanowire arrays is exploited and a demonstration of their ability to achieve high discharge energy density capacitors for low operating voltage applications is provided. A high discharge energy density of 6.9 J cm -3 is achieved at low electric fields, i.e., 143 kV mm -1 , which is attributed to the high relative permittivity of 218.9 at 1 kHz and high polarization of 23.35 µC cm -2 at this electric field. The discharge energy density obtained in this work is the highest known for a ceramic/polymer nanocomposite at such a low electric field. The novel nanowire arrays used in this work are applicable to a wide range of fields, such as energy harvesting, energy storage, and photocatalysis.

Structural analysis characterization of permeability pathways across reservoir-seal interface - South-Eastern Utah; Results from integrated sedimentological, structural, and geochemical studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrie, E. S.; Evans, J. P.; Richey, D.; Flores, S.; Barton, C.; Mozley, P.

2015-12-01

Sedimentary rocks in the San Rafael Swell, Utah, were deformed by Laramide compression and subsequent Neogene extension. We evaluate the effect of fault damage zone morphology as a function of structural position, and changes in mechanical stratigraphy on the distribution of secondary minerals across the reservoir-seal pair of the Navajo Sandstone and overlying Carmel Formation. We decipher paleo-fluid migration and examine the effect faults and fractures have on reservoir permeability and efficacy of top seal for a range of geo-engineering applications. Map-scale faults have an increased probability of allowing upward migration of fluids along the fault plane and within the damage zone, potentially bypassing the top seal. Field mapping, mesoscopic structural analyses, petrography, and geochemical observations demonstrate that fault zone thickness increases at structural intersections, fault relay zones, fault-related folds, and fault tips. Higher densities of faults with meters of slip and dense fracture populations are present in relay zones relative to single, discrete faults. Curvature analysis of the San Rafael monocline and fracture density data show that fracture density is highest where curvature is highest in the syncline hinge and near faults. Fractures cross the reservoir-seal interface where fracture density is highest and structural diagensis includes mineralization events and bleaching and calcite and gypsum mineralization. The link between fracture distributions and structural setting implys that transmissive fractures have predictable orientations and density distributions. At the m- to cm- scale, deformation-band faults and joints in the Navajo Sandstone penetrate the reservoir-seal interface and transition into open-mode fractures in the caprock seal. Scanline analysis and petrography of veins provide evidence for subsurface mineralization and fracture reactivation, suggesting that the fractures act as loci for fluid flow through time. Heterolithic caprock seals with variable fracture distributions and morphology highlight the strong link between the variation in material properties and the response to changing stress conditions. The variable connectivity of fractures and the changes in fracture density plays a critical role in subsurface fluid flow.

A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

PubMed

Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

2006-11-01

A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate.

Probability density functions of power-in-bucket and power-in-fiber for an infrared laser beam propagating in the maritime environment.

PubMed

Nelson, Charles; Avramov-Zamurovic, Svetlana; Korotkova, Olga; Malek-Madani, Reza; Sova, Raymond; Davidson, Frederic

2013-11-01

Irradiance fluctuations of an infrared laser beam from a shore-to-ship data link ranging from 5.1 to 17.8 km are compared to lognormal (LN), gamma-gamma (GG) with aperture averaging, and gamma-Laguerre (GL) distributions. From our data analysis, the LN and GG probability density function (PDF) models were generally in good agreement in near-weak to moderate fluctuations. This was also true in moderate to strong fluctuations when the spatial coherence radius was smaller than the detector aperture size, with the exception of the 2.54 cm power-in-bucket (PIB) where the LN PDF model fit best. For moderate to strong fluctuations, the GG PDF model tended to outperform the LN PDF model when the spatial coherence radius was greater than the detector aperture size. Additionally, the GL PDF model had the best or next to best overall fit in all cases with the exception of the 2.54 cm PIB where the scintillation index was highest. The GL PDF model also appears to be robust for off-of-beam center laser beam applications.

Positron annihilation study of the high- Tc (Bi,Pb) 2Sr 2Ca 2Cu 3O x superconductor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, H. J.; Byrne, J. G.

1997-03-01

Positron lifetime spectroscopy (PLS) and positron Doppler-broadening spectroscopy (PDBS) were applied to the high- Tc lead-doped Bi 2Sr 2Ca 2Cu 3O x (BPSCCO 2223) superconductor as a function of temperature. Neither positron lifetimes nor Doppler parameters ( S, W, and{S}/{W}) showed significant change through Tc. This may result from having the highest positron density in the open BiO 2 double layers and no significant positron density in the superconducting CuO 2 layers where positrons, if mainly present, are known to be sensitive to the transition in other high- Tc superconductors. Doppler parameters showed that the probability of positron annihilations with core electrons in the lattice slightly increased and that the probability of positron annihilations with conduction electrons slightly decreased as temperature decreased from ambient temperature to 20 K. The lifetime associated with positron annihilations in the perfect lattice of the sample ( τ1) was 209 ps and, due to the annihilations at internal surfaces or voids in the sample ( τ2) was about 540 ps, independent of temperature. Finally, the mean lifetime for BSCCO 2223 was about 307 ps.

The impact of landscape disturbance on spatial genetic structure in the Guanacaste tree, Enterolobium cyclocarpum (Fabaceae).

PubMed

Gonzales, Eva; Hamrick, James L; Smouse, Peter E; Trapnell, Dorset W; Peakall, Rod

2010-01-01

We examined spatial genetic structure (SGS) in Enterolobium cyclocarpum (the Guanacaste tree), a dominant tree of Central American dry forests in 4 sites in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica. In disturbed dry forest sites (e.g., pastures), E. cyclocarpum is primarily dispersed by cattle and horses, whose movements are restricted by pasture boundaries. The study sites varied in tree densities and disturbance. Allozyme analyses of adult trees demonstrated significant levels of SGS in 3 of 4 sites. SGS was primarily due to clusters of young adults located along seasonal streams, rocky areas, and in abandoned pastures. SGS was highest in the first distance class in the least disturbed population, which also had the lowest density of large adults. Low, but significant SGS characterized the site with the highest number of large adults located in individual pastures. The semiurban site, had no clusters of young adults and, probably as a result, failed to exhibit SGS. Our results demonstrate that disturbance can strongly influence SGS patterns and are consistent with a landscape model in which the location of potential recruitment sites, restricted seed disperser movements, and the number and location of maternal individuals dictate the level and pattern of SGS.

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models.

PubMed

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal's home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786-1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703-0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779-0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758-1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700-0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771-0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park's population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions.

Prevalence and quantification of Listeria monocytogenes in chicken offal at the retail level in Malaysia.

PubMed

Kuan, C H; Goh, S G; Loo, Y Y; Chang, W S; Lye, Y L; Puspanadan, S; Tang, J Y H; Nakaguchi, Y; Nishibuchi, M; Mahyudin, N A; Radu, S

2013-06-01

A total of 216 chicken offal samples (chicken liver = 72; chicken heart = 72; chicken gizzard = 72) from wet markets and hypermarkets in Selangor, Malaysia, were examined for the presence and density of Listeria monocytogenes by using a combination of the most probable number and PCR method. The prevalence of L. monocytogenes in 216 chicken offal samples examined was 26.39%, and among the positive samples, the chicken gizzard showed the highest percentage at 33.33% compared with chicken liver (25.00%) and chicken heart (20.83%). The microbial load of L. monocytogenes in chicken offal samples ranged from <3 to 93.0 most probable number per gram. The presence of L. monocytogenes in chicken offal samples may indicate that chicken offal can act as a possible vehicle for the occurrence of foodborne listeriosis. Hence, there is a need to investigate the biosafety level of chicken offal in Malaysia.

Intermediate Pond Sizes Contain the Highest Density, Richness, and Diversity of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

PubMed Central

Semlitsch, Raymond D.; Peterman, William E.; Anderson, Thomas L.; Drake, Dana L.; Ousterhout, Brittany H.

2015-01-01

We present data on amphibian density, species richness, and diversity from a 7140-ha area consisting of 200 ponds in the Midwestern U.S. that represents most of the possible lentic aquatic breeding habitats common in this region. Our study includes all possible breeding sites with natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes that can be missing from studies where sampling intensity is low, sample area is small, or partial disturbance gradients are sampled. We tested whether pond area was a significant predictor of density, species richness, and diversity of amphibians and if values peaked at intermediate pond areas. We found that in all cases a quadratic model fit our data significantly better than a linear model. Because small ponds have a high probability of pond drying and large ponds have a high probability of fish colonization and accumulation of invertebrate predators, drying and predation may be two mechanisms driving the peak of density and diversity towards intermediate values of pond size. We also found that not all intermediate sized ponds produced many larvae; in fact, some had low amphibian density, richness, and diversity. Further analyses of the subset of ponds represented in the peak of the area distribution showed that fish, hydroperiod, invertebrate density, and canopy are additional factors that drive density, richness and diversity of ponds up or down, when extremely small or large ponds are eliminated. Our results indicate that fishless ponds at intermediate sizes are more diverse, produce more larvae, and have greater potential to recruit juveniles into adult populations of most species sampled. Further, hylid and chorus frogs are found predictably more often in ephemeral ponds whereas bullfrogs, green frogs, and cricket frogs are found most often in permanent ponds with fish. Our data increase understanding of what factors structure and maintain amphibian diversity across large landscapes. PMID:25906355

Force Density Function Relationships in 2-D Granular Media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngquist, Robert C.; Metzger, Philip T.; Kilts, Kelly N.

2004-01-01

An integral transform relationship is developed to convert between two important probability density functions (distributions) used in the study of contact forces in granular physics. Developing this transform has now made it possible to compare and relate various theoretical approaches with one another and with the experimental data despite the fact that one may predict the Cartesian probability density and another the force magnitude probability density. Also, the transforms identify which functional forms are relevant to describe the probability density observed in nature, and so the modified Bessel function of the second kind has been identified as the relevant form for the Cartesian probability density corresponding to exponential forms in the force magnitude distribution. Furthermore, it is shown that this transform pair supplies a sufficient mathematical framework to describe the evolution of the force magnitude distribution under shearing. Apart from the choice of several coefficients, whose evolution of values must be explained in the physics, this framework successfully reproduces the features of the distribution that are taken to be an indicator of jamming and unjamming in a granular packing. Key words. Granular Physics, Probability Density Functions, Fourier Transforms

Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in U.S. retail shell oysters: a national survey from June 1998 to July 1999.

PubMed

Cook, David W; Oleary, Paul; Hunsucker, Jeff C; Sloan, Edna M; Bowers, John C; Blodgett, Robert J; Depaola, Angelo

2002-01-01

From June 1998 to July 1999, 370 lots of oysters in the shell were sampled at 275 different establishments (71%, restaurants or oyster bars; 27%, retail seafood markets: and 2%, wholesale seafood markets) in coastal and inland markets throughout the United States. The oysters were harvested from the Gulf (49%). Pacific (14%), Mid-Atlantic (18%), and North Atlantic (11%) Coasts of the United States and from Canada (8%). Densities of Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus were determined using a modification of the most probable number (MPN) techniques described in the Food and Drug Administration's Bacteriological Analytical Manual. DNA probes and enzyme immunoassay were used to identify suspect isolates and to determine the presence of the thermostable direct hemolysin gene associated with pathogenicity of V. parahaemolyticus. Densities of both V. vulnifcus and V. parahaemolyticus in market oysters from all harvest regions followed a seasonal distribution, with highest densities in the summer. Highest densities of both organisms were observed in oysters harvested from the Gulf Coast, where densities often exceeded 10,000 MPN/g. The majority (78%) of lots harvested in the North Atlantic, Pacific, and Canadian Coasts had V. vulnificus densities below the detectable level of 0.2 MPN/g; none exceeded 100 MPN/g. V. parahaemolyticus densities were greater than those of V. vulnificus in lots from these same areas, with some lots exceeding 1,000 MPN/g for V. parahaemolyticus. Some lots from the Mid-Atlantic states exceeded 10,000 MPN/g for both V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyicus. Overall, there was a significant correlation between V. vulificus and V. parahaemolyticus densities (r = 0.72, n = 202, P < 0.0001), but neither density correlated with salinity. Storage time significantly affected the V. vulnificus (10% decrease per day) and V. parahaemolyticus (7% decrease per day) densities in market oysters. The thermostable direct hemolysin gene associated with V parahaemolyticus virulence was detected in 9 of 3,429 (0.3%) V. parahaemolyticus cultures and in 8 of 198 (4.0%) lots of oysters. These data can be used to estimate the exposure of raw oyster consumers to V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus.

High population density of black-handed spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) in Costa Rican lowland wet forest.

PubMed

Weghorst, Jennifer A

2007-04-01

The main objective of this study was to estimate the population density and demographic structure of spider monkeys living in wet forest in the vicinity of Sirena Biological Station, Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica. Results of a 14-month line-transect survey showed that spider monkeys of Sirena have one of the highest population densities ever recorded for this genus. Density estimates varied, however, depending on the method chosen to estimate transect width. Data from behavioral monitoring were available to compare density estimates derived from the survey, providing a check of the survey's accuracy. A combination of factors has most probably contributed to the high density of Ateles, including habitat protection within a national park and high diversity of trees of the fig family, Moraceae. Although natural densities of spider monkeys at Sirena are substantially higher than those recorded at most other sites and in previous studies at this site, mean subgroup size and age ratios were similar to those determined in previous studies. Sex ratios were similar to those of other sites with high productivity. Although high densities of preferred fruit trees in the wet, productive forests of Sirena may support a dense population of spider monkeys, other demographic traits recorded at Sirena fall well within the range of values recorded elsewhere for the species.

High Discharge Energy Density at Low Electric Field Using an Aligned Titanium Dioxide/Lead Zirconate Titanate Nanowire Array

PubMed Central

Zhang, Dou; Liu, Weiwei; Guo, Ru; Zhou, Kechao

2017-01-01

Abstract Polymer‐based capacitors with high energy density have attracted significant attention in recent years due to their wide range of potential applications in electronic devices. However, the obtained high energy density is predominantly dependent on high applied electric field, e.g., 400–600 kV mm−1, which may bring more challenges relating to the failure probability. Here, a simple two‐step method for synthesizing titanium dioxide/lead zirconate titanate nanowire arrays is exploited and a demonstration of their ability to achieve high discharge energy density capacitors for low operating voltage applications is provided. A high discharge energy density of 6.9 J cm−3 is achieved at low electric fields, i.e., 143 kV mm−1, which is attributed to the high relative permittivity of 218.9 at 1 kHz and high polarization of 23.35 µC cm−2 at this electric field. The discharge energy density obtained in this work is the highest known for a ceramic/polymer nanocomposite at such a low electric field. The novel nanowire arrays used in this work are applicable to a wide range of fields, such as energy harvesting, energy storage, and photocatalysis. PMID:29610724

Statistical tests for whether a given set of independent, identically distributed draws comes from a specified probability density.

PubMed

Tygert, Mark

2010-09-21

We discuss several tests for determining whether a given set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws does not come from a specified probability density function. The most commonly used are Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, particularly Kuiper's variant, which focus on discrepancies between the cumulative distribution function for the specified probability density and the empirical cumulative distribution function for the given set of i.i.d. draws. Unfortunately, variations in the probability density function often get smoothed over in the cumulative distribution function, making it difficult to detect discrepancies in regions where the probability density is small in comparison with its values in surrounding regions. We discuss tests without this deficiency, complementing the classical methods. The tests of the present paper are based on the plain fact that it is unlikely to draw a random number whose probability is small, provided that the draw is taken from the same distribution used in calculating the probability (thus, if we draw a random number whose probability is small, then we can be confident that we did not draw the number from the same distribution used in calculating the probability).

Maximum likelihood estimation for predicting the probability of obtaining variable shortleaf pine regeneration densities

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Jean Nkouka; Michael M. Huebschmann; James M. Guldin

2003-01-01

A logistic equation is the basis for a model that predicts the probability of obtaining regeneration at specified densities. The density of regeneration (trees/ha) for which an estimate of probability is desired can be specified by means of independent variables in the model. When estimating parameters, the dependent variable is set to 1 if the regeneration density (...

Finding a fox: an evaluation of survey methods to estimate abundance of a small desert carnivore.

PubMed

Dempsey, Steven J; Gese, Eric M; Kluever, Bryan M

2014-01-01

The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore.

Finding a Fox: An Evaluation of Survey Methods to Estimate Abundance of a Small Desert Carnivore

PubMed Central

Dempsey, Steven J.; Gese, Eric M.; Kluever, Bryan M.

2014-01-01

The status of many carnivore species is a growing concern for wildlife agencies, conservation organizations, and the general public. Historically, kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis) were classified as abundant and distributed in the desert and semi-arid regions of southwestern North America, but is now considered rare throughout its range. Survey methods have been evaluated for kit foxes, but often in populations where abundance is high and there is little consensus on which technique is best to monitor abundance. We conducted a 2-year study to evaluate four survey methods (scat deposition surveys, scent station surveys, spotlight survey, and trapping) for detecting kit foxes and measuring fox abundance. We determined the probability of detection for each method, and examined the correlation between the relative abundance as estimated by each survey method and the known minimum kit fox abundance as determined by radio-collared animals. All surveys were conducted on 15 5-km transects during the 3 biological seasons of the kit fox. Scat deposition surveys had both the highest detection probabilities (p = 0.88) and were most closely related to minimum known fox abundance (r2 = 0.50, P = 0.001). The next best method for kit fox detection was the scent station survey (p = 0.73), which had the second highest correlation to fox abundance (r2 = 0.46, P<0.001). For detecting kit foxes in a low density population we suggest using scat deposition transects during the breeding season. Scat deposition surveys have low costs, resilience to weather, low labor requirements, and pose no risk to the study animals. The breeding season was ideal for monitoring kit fox population size, as detections consisted of the resident population and had the highest detection probabilities. Using appropriate monitoring techniques will be critical for future conservation actions for this rare desert carnivore. PMID:25148102

Series approximation to probability densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.

2018-04-01

One of the historical and fundamental uses of the Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier series is to "correct" a Gaussian density when it is determined that the probability density under consideration has moments that do not correspond to the Gaussian [5, 6]. There is a fundamental difficulty with these methods in that if the series are truncated, then the resulting approximate density is not manifestly positive. The aim of this paper is to attempt to expand a probability density so that if it is truncated it will still be manifestly positive.

[Neurogenic inflammation and chronic rhinosinusitis].

PubMed

Lacroix, J S; Ricchetti Coignard, A

2005-10-19

The nasal mucosa is one of the anatomical region which have the highest density of sensory innervation. The function of this sensory innervation is probably linked to the protection of the lower airways against inhalation of airborne particles and potentially harmful substances. Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is associated with nasal obstruction, rhinorrhea, loss of sense of smell and facial pain or headaches. When allergy or specific hyperreactivity, infection, systemic or genetic deseases have been excluded, the diagnosis of non specific hyperreactivity or neurogenic inflammation is proposed. Sensory neuropeptides released by sensory nerves endings have powerful proinflammatory effects. The best treatment yet available include nasal lavages and the local application of topical corticosteroid spray.

Monitoring low density avian populations: An example using Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Lukacs, P.M.; Knopf, F.L.

2006-01-01

Declines in avian populations highlight a need for rigorous, broad-scale monitoring programs to document trends in avian populations that occur in low densities across expansive landscapes. Accounting for the spatial variation and variation in detection probability inherent to monitoring programs is thought to be effort-intensive and time-consuming. We determined the feasibility of the analytical method developed by Royle and Nichols (2003), which uses presence-absence (detection-non-detection) field data, to estimate abundance of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus) per sampling unit in agricultural fields, grassland, and prairie dog habitat in eastern Colorado. Field methods were easy to implement and results suggest that the analytical method provides valuable insight into population patterning among habitats. Mountain Plover abundance was highest in prairie dog habitat, slightly lower in agricultural fields, and substantially lower in grassland. These results provided valuable insight to focus future research into Mountain Plover ecology and conservation. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Flux pinning in nanoparticle doped MgB 2/Cu tapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babić, E.; Kušević, I.; Husnjak, O.; Soltanian, S.; Wang, X. L.; Dou, S. X.

2007-09-01

The irreversibility fields Birr and critical current densities Jc of undoped and Si and SiC nanoparticle doped (5, 10 and 20 wt%) MgB2 tapes were measured in the temperature (T) range 2-38 K and in magnetic fields B ⩽ 16 T. Whereas Birr of undoped tapes varies smoothly with T, those of doped tapes show a change in slope around a crossover field Bcr which increases with nanoparticle content and also depends on their type. This indicates matching effect in vortex pinning, probably associated with Mg2Si nanoprecipitates formed during heat treatment. Indeed, Birr of doped tapes was enhanced in respect to that of undoped one with the highest enhancement for Birr ≈ Bcr, but the enhancement remained high ≈1.4 even for Birr ≫ Bcr (low temperatures). The variations of Jc and the pinning force density Fp = JcB with B and T support the above findings.

Detection of Total and Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shellfish Growing along the South Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.

PubMed

Han, Feng; Gu, Run-Run; Shen, Xiao-Sheng; Chen, Yuan-Ge; Tian, Liang-Liang; Zhou, Wei-Feng; Cai, You-Qiong

2017-10-17

This study was conducted to monitor the densities of total and pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in 300 samples of nine shellfish species harvested from the coasts of the South Yellow Sea and the East China Sea (N 23° to 34°, E 116° to 124°), People's Republic of China, between May and October 2015. Total V. parahaemolyticus densities were measured, and V. parahaemolyticus isolates were biochemically identified with probes for the thermostable direct hemolysin gene (tdh) and the thermostable direct hemolysin-related hemolysin gene (trh). We found that 202 of the 300 samples were positive for V. parahaemolyticus from all the sites: 58 of the 100 samples from the Fujian province, 71 of the 100 samples from the Zhejiang province, and 73 of the 100 samples from the Jiangsu province. In most (170) of the 300 samples, V. parahaemolyticus densities were 0.3 to 10 most probable number (MPN)/g; five lots exceeded 110 MPN/g, and two lots were estimated at 110 MPN/g. Among the 202 V. parahaemolyticus strains, only one was trh positive. Densities of V. parahaemolyticus in these shellfish were temperature dependent, with highest densities in June and July. Among the nine mollusk species, V. parahaemolyticus was most abundant in the agemaki clam (Sinonovacula constricta). The highest and lowest V. parahaemolyticus prevalences were found in oriental cyclina (Cyclina sinensis, 93.8%) and mussels (Mytilus edulis, 28.1%), respectively. Overall, although V. parahaemolyticus is widely distributed in marine environments, the density of V. parahaemolyticus was low and the prevalence of the main virulence factor was very low in shellfish along the coasts of the South Yellow Sea and East China Sea, which is important from a public health perspective. Data presented here will be useful for correlational research and can be utilized for developing risk management plans that establish food safety guidelines for V. parahaemolyticus in Chinese shellfish.

Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

PubMed

Kwasniok, Frank

2013-11-01

A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Kevin Martin

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful precipitation clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. A similar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 and SSM/I-SSMIS rain rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high-power cluster probabilities at this time. Large impacts to mid-latitude storm tracks are projected over the West Coast and eastern North America, with no less than 8 of the 9 models examined showing large increases by end-of-century in the probability density of the most powerful storms, ranging up to a factor of 6.5 in the highest range bin for which historical statistics are computed. However, within these regional domains, there is considerable variation among models in pinpointing exactly where the largest increases will occur.

The use of spatial dose gradients and probability density function to evaluate the effect of internal organ motion for prostate IMRT treatment planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Runqing; Barnett, Rob B.; Chow, James C. L.; Chen, Jeff Z. Y.

2007-03-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of internal organ motion on IMRT treatment planning of prostate patients using a spatial dose gradient and probability density function. Spatial dose distributions were generated from a Pinnacle3 planning system using a co-planar, five-field intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique. Five plans were created for each patient using equally spaced beams but shifting the angular displacement of the beam by 15° increments. Dose profiles taken through the isocentre in anterior-posterior (A-P), right-left (R-L) and superior-inferior (S-I) directions for IMRT plans were analysed by exporting RTOG file data from Pinnacle. The convolution of the 'static' dose distribution D0(x, y, z) and probability density function (PDF), denoted as P(x, y, z), was used to analyse the combined effect of repositioning error and internal organ motion. Organ motion leads to an enlarged beam penumbra. The amount of percentage mean dose deviation (PMDD) depends on the dose gradient and organ motion probability density function. Organ motion dose sensitivity was defined by the rate of change in PMDD with standard deviation of motion PDF and was found to increase with the maximum dose gradient in anterior, posterior, left and right directions. Due to common inferior and superior field borders of the field segments, the sharpest dose gradient will occur in the inferior or both superior and inferior penumbrae. Thus, prostate motion in the S-I direction produces the highest dose difference. The PMDD is within 2.5% when standard deviation is less than 5 mm, but the PMDD is over 2.5% in the inferior direction when standard deviation is higher than 5 mm in the inferior direction. Verification of prostate organ motion in the inferior directions is essential. The margin of the planning target volume (PTV) significantly impacts on the confidence of tumour control probability (TCP) and level of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Smaller margins help to reduce the dose to normal tissues, but may compromise the dose coverage of the PTV. Lower rectal NTCP can be achieved by either a smaller margin or a steeper dose gradient between PTV and rectum. With the same DVH control points, the rectum has lower complication in the seven-beam technique used in this study because of the steeper dose gradient between the target volume and rectum. The relationship between dose gradient and rectal complication can be used to evaluate IMRT treatment planning. The dose gradient analysis is a powerful tool to improve IMRT treatment plans and can be used for QA checking of treatment plans for prostate patients.

The use of spatial dose gradients and probability density function to evaluate the effect of internal organ motion for prostate IMRT treatment planning.

PubMed

Jiang, Runqing; Barnett, Rob B; Chow, James C L; Chen, Jeff Z Y

2007-03-07

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of internal organ motion on IMRT treatment planning of prostate patients using a spatial dose gradient and probability density function. Spatial dose distributions were generated from a Pinnacle3 planning system using a co-planar, five-field intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique. Five plans were created for each patient using equally spaced beams but shifting the angular displacement of the beam by 15 degree increments. Dose profiles taken through the isocentre in anterior-posterior (A-P), right-left (R-L) and superior-inferior (S-I) directions for IMRT plans were analysed by exporting RTOG file data from Pinnacle. The convolution of the 'static' dose distribution D0(x, y, z) and probability density function (PDF), denoted as P(x, y, z), was used to analyse the combined effect of repositioning error and internal organ motion. Organ motion leads to an enlarged beam penumbra. The amount of percentage mean dose deviation (PMDD) depends on the dose gradient and organ motion probability density function. Organ motion dose sensitivity was defined by the rate of change in PMDD with standard deviation of motion PDF and was found to increase with the maximum dose gradient in anterior, posterior, left and right directions. Due to common inferior and superior field borders of the field segments, the sharpest dose gradient will occur in the inferior or both superior and inferior penumbrae. Thus, prostate motion in the S-I direction produces the highest dose difference. The PMDD is within 2.5% when standard deviation is less than 5 mm, but the PMDD is over 2.5% in the inferior direction when standard deviation is higher than 5 mm in the inferior direction. Verification of prostate organ motion in the inferior directions is essential. The margin of the planning target volume (PTV) significantly impacts on the confidence of tumour control probability (TCP) and level of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Smaller margins help to reduce the dose to normal tissues, but may compromise the dose coverage of the PTV. Lower rectal NTCP can be achieved by either a smaller margin or a steeper dose gradient between PTV and rectum. With the same DVH control points, the rectum has lower complication in the seven-beam technique used in this study because of the steeper dose gradient between the target volume and rectum. The relationship between dose gradient and rectal complication can be used to evaluate IMRT treatment planning. The dose gradient analysis is a powerful tool to improve IMRT treatment plans and can be used for QA checking of treatment plans for prostate patients.

The nature of H α-selected galaxies along the large-scale structure at z = 0.4 revealed by Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koyama, Yusei; Hayashi, Masao; Tanaka, Masayuki; Kodama, Tadayuki; Shimakawa, Rhythm; Yamamoto, Moegi; Nakata, Fumiaki; Tanaka, Ichi; Suzuki, Tomoko L.; Tadaki, Ken-ichi; Nishizawa, Atsushi J.; Yabe, Kiyoto; Toba, Yoshiki; Lin, Lihwai; Jian, Hung-Yu; Komiyama, Yutaka

2018-01-01

We present the environmental dependence of color, stellar mass, and star formation (SF) activity in Hα-selected galaxies along the large-scale structure at z = 0.4 hosting twin clusters in the DEEP2-3 field, discovered by the Subaru Strategic Program of Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC SSP). By combining photo-z-selected galaxies and Hα emitters selected with broadband and narrowband (NB) data from the recent data release of HSC SSP (DR1), we confirm that galaxies in higher-density environments or galaxies in cluster central regions show redder colors. We find that there still remains a possible color-density and color-radius correlation even if we restrict the sample to Hα-selected galaxies, probably due to the presence of massive Hα emitters in denser regions. We also find a hint of increased star formation rates (SFR) amongst Hα emitters toward the highest-density environment, again primarily driven by the excess of red/massive Hα emitters in high-density environments, while their specific SFRs do not significantly change with environment. This work demonstrates the power of the HSC SSP NB data for studying SF galaxies across environments in the distant universe.

The precise time course of lexical activation: MEG measurements of the effects of frequency, probability, and density in lexical decision.

PubMed

Stockall, Linnaea; Stringfellow, Andrew; Marantz, Alec

2004-01-01

Visually presented letter strings consistently yield three MEG response components: the M170, associated with letter-string processing (Tarkiainen, Helenius, Hansen, Cornelissen, & Salmelin, 1999); the M250, affected by phonotactic probability, (Pylkkänen, Stringfellow, & Marantz, 2002); and the M350, responsive to lexical frequency (Embick, Hackl, Schaeffer, Kelepir, & Marantz, 2001). Pylkkänen et al. found evidence that the M350 reflects lexical activation prior to competition among phonologically similar words. We investigate the effects of lexical and sublexical frequency and neighborhood density on the M250 and M350 through orthogonal manipulation of phonotactic probability, density, and frequency. The results confirm that probability but not density affects the latency of the M250 and M350; however, an interaction between probability and density on M350 latencies suggests an earlier influence of neighborhoods than previously reported.

American Marten Respond to Seismic Lines in Northern Canada at Two Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tigner, Jesse; Bayne, Erin M.; Boutin, Stan

2015-01-01

Development of hydrocarbon resources across northwest Canada has spurred economic prosperity and generated concerns over impacts to biodiversity. To balance these interests, numerous jurisdictions have adopted management thresholds that allow for limited energy development but minimize undesirable impacts to wildlife. Used for exploration, seismic lines are the most abundant linear feature in the boreal forest and exist at a variety of widths and recovery states. We used American marten (Martes americana) as a model species to measure how line attributes influence species’ response to seismic lines, and asked whether responses to individual lines trigger population impacts. Marten response to seismic lines was strongly influenced by line width and recovery state. Compared to forest interiors, marten used open seismic lines ≥ 3 m wide less often, but used open lines ≤ 2 m wide and partially recovered lines ≥ 6 m wide similarly. Marten response to individual line types appeared to trigger population impacts. The probability of occurrence at the home range scale declined with increasing seismic line density, and the inclusion of behavioral response to line density calculations improved model fit. In our top performing model, we excluded seismic lines ≤ 2 m from our calculation of line density, and the probability of occurrence declined > 80% between home ranges with the lowest and highest line densities. Models that excluded seismic lines did not strongly explain occurrence. We show how wildlife-derived metrics can inform regulatory guidelines to increase the likelihood those guidelines meet intended management objectives. With respect to marten, not all seismic lines constitute disturbances, but avoidance of certain line types scales to population impacts. This approach provides the ecological context required to understand cause and effect relationships among socio-economic and ecological conservation goals. PMID:25768848

Estimating loblolly pine size-density trajectories across a range of planting densities

Treesearch

Curtis L. VanderSchaaf; Harold E. Burkhart

2013-01-01

Size-density trajectories on the logarithmic (ln) scale are generally thought to consist of two major stages. The first is often referred to as the density-independent mortality stage where the probability of mortality is independent of stand density; in the second, often referred to as the density-dependent mortality or self-thinning stage, the probability of...

The Effect of Incremental Changes in Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storkel, Holly L.; Bontempo, Daniel E.; Aschenbrenner, Andrew J.; Maekawa, Junko; Lee, Su-Yeon

2013-01-01

Purpose: Phonotactic probability or neighborhood density has predominately been defined through the use of gross distinctions (i.e., low vs. high). In the current studies, the authors examined the influence of finer changes in probability (Experiment 1) and density (Experiment 2) on word learning. Method: The authors examined the full range of…

Robust location and spread measures for nonparametric probability density function estimation.

PubMed

López-Rubio, Ezequiel

2009-10-01

Robustness against outliers is a desirable property of any unsupervised learning scheme. In particular, probability density estimators benefit from incorporating this feature. A possible strategy to achieve this goal is to substitute the sample mean and the sample covariance matrix by more robust location and spread estimators. Here we use the L1-median to develop a nonparametric probability density function (PDF) estimator. We prove its most relevant properties, and we show its performance in density estimation and classification applications.

Photoelectron Spectroscopy and Density Functional Theory Studies of Iron Sulfur (FeS)m- (m = 2-8) Cluster Anions: Coexisting Multiple Spin States.

PubMed

Yin, Shi; Bernstein, Elliot R

2017-10-05

Iron sulfur cluster anions (FeS) m - (m = 2-8) are studied by photoelectron spectroscopy (PES) at 3.492 eV (355 nm) and 4.661 eV (266 nm) photon energies, and by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The most probable structures and ground state spin multiplicities for (FeS) m - (m = 2-8) clusters are tentatively assigned through a comparison of their theoretical and experiment first vertical detachment energy (VDE) values. Many spin states lie within 0.5 eV of the ground spin state for the larger (FeS) m - (m ≥ 4) clusters. Theoretical VDEs of these low lying spin states are in good agreement with the experimental VDE values. Therefore, multiple spin states of each of these iron sulfur cluster anions probably coexist under the current experimental conditions. Such available multiple spin states must be considered when evaluating the properties and behavior of these iron sulfur clusters in real chemical and biological systems. The experimental first VDEs of (FeS) m - (m = 1-8) clusters are observed to change with the cluster size (number m). The first VDE trends noted can be related to the different properties of the highest singly occupied molecular orbitals (NBO, HSOMOs) of each cluster anion. The changing nature of the NBO/HSOMO of these (FeS) m - (m = 1-8) clusters from a p orbital on S, to a d orbital on Fe, and to an Fe-Fe bonding orbital is probably responsible for the observed increasing trend for their first VDEs with respect to m.

The Influence of Part-Word Phonotactic Probability/Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children Varying in Expressive Vocabulary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storkel, Holly L.; Hoover, Jill R.

2011-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine the influence of part-word phonotactic probability/neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children with normal vocabularies that varied in size. Ninety-eight children (age 2 ; 11-6 ; 0) were taught consonant-vowel-consonant (CVC) nonwords orthogonally varying in the probability/density of the CV…

A Comparison of Grizzly Bear Demographic Parameters Estimated from Non-Spatial and Spatial Open Population Capture-Recapture Models

PubMed Central

Whittington, Jesse; Sawaya, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Capture-recapture studies are frequently used to monitor the status and trends of wildlife populations. Detection histories from individual animals are used to estimate probability of detection and abundance or density. The accuracy of abundance and density estimates depends on the ability to model factors affecting detection probability. Non-spatial capture-recapture models have recently evolved into spatial capture-recapture models that directly include the effect of distances between an animal’s home range centre and trap locations on detection probability. Most studies comparing non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture biases focussed on single year models and no studies have compared the accuracy of demographic parameter estimates from open population models. We applied open population non-spatial and spatial capture-recapture models to three years of grizzly bear DNA-based data from Banff National Park and simulated data sets. The two models produced similar estimates of grizzly bear apparent survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rates but the spatial capture-recapture models had better fit. Simulations showed that spatial capture-recapture models produced more accurate parameter estimates with better credible interval coverage than non-spatial capture-recapture models. Non-spatial capture-recapture models produced negatively biased estimates of apparent survival and positively biased estimates of per capita recruitment. The spatial capture-recapture grizzly bear population growth rates and 95% highest posterior density averaged across the three years were 0.925 (0.786–1.071) for females, 0.844 (0.703–0.975) for males, and 0.882 (0.779–0.981) for females and males combined. The non-spatial capture-recapture population growth rates were 0.894 (0.758–1.024) for females, 0.825 (0.700–0.948) for males, and 0.863 (0.771–0.957) for both sexes. The combination of low densities, low reproductive rates, and predominantly negative population growth rates suggest that Banff National Park’s population of grizzly bears requires continued conservation-oriented management actions. PMID:26230262

Probing interfacial characteristics of rubrene/pentacene and pentacene/rubrene bilayers with soft X-ray spectroscopy.

PubMed

Seo, J H; Pedersen, T M; Chang, G S; Moewes, A; Yoo, K-H; Cho, S J; Whang, C N

2007-08-16

The electronic structure of rubrene/pentacene and pentacene/rubrene bilayers has been investigated using soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy, resonant X-ray emission spectroscopy, and density-functional theory calculations. X-ray absorption and emission measurements reveal that it has been possible to alter the lowest unoccupied and the highest occupied molecular orbital states of rubrene in rubrene/pentacene bilayer. In the reverse case, one gets p* molecular orbital states originating from the pentacene layer. Resonant X-ray emission spectra suggest a reduction in the hole-transition probabilities for the pentacene/rubrene bilayer in comparison to reference pentacene layer. For the rubrenepentacene structure, the hole-transition probability shows an increase in comparison to the rubrene reference. We also determined the energy level alignment of the pentacene-rubrene interface by using X-ray and ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy. From these comparisons, it is found that the electronic structure of the pentacene-rubrene interface has a strong dependence on interface characteristics which depends on the order of the layers used.

A wave function for stock market returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataullah, Ali; Davidson, Ian; Tippett, Mark

2009-02-01

The instantaneous return on the Financial Times-Stock Exchange (FTSE) All Share Index is viewed as a frictionless particle moving in a one-dimensional square well but where there is a non-trivial probability of the particle tunneling into the well’s retaining walls. Our analysis demonstrates how the complementarity principle from quantum mechanics applies to stock market prices and of how the wave function presented by it leads to a probability density which exhibits strong compatibility with returns earned on the FTSE All Share Index. In particular, our analysis shows that the probability density for stock market returns is highly leptokurtic with slight (though not significant) negative skewness. Moreover, the moments of the probability density determined under the complementarity principle employed here are all convergent - in contrast to many of the probability density functions on which the received theory of finance is based.

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-01-01

Purpose Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Method Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. Results The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. Conclusions As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise. PMID:27788276

The Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Adults' Word Learning in Noisy Conditions.

PubMed

Han, Min Kyung; Storkel, Holly L; Lee, Jaehoon; Cox, Casey

2016-11-01

Noisy conditions make auditory processing difficult. This study explores whether noisy conditions influence the effects of phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (phonological similarity among words) on adults' word learning. Fifty-eight adults learned nonwords varying in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in either an unfavorable (0-dB signal-to-noise ratio [SNR]) or a favorable (+8-dB SNR) listening condition. Word learning was assessed using a picture naming task by scoring the proportion of phonemes named correctly. The unfavorable 0-dB SNR condition showed a significant interaction between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density in the absence of main effects. In particular, adults learned more words when phonotactic probability and neighborhood density were both low or both high. The +8-dB SNR condition did not show this interaction. These results are inconsistent with those from a prior adult word learning study conducted under quiet listening conditions that showed main effects of word characteristics. As the listening condition worsens, adult word learning benefits from a convergence of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. Clinical implications are discussed for potential populations who experience difficulty with auditory perception or processing, making them more vulnerable to noise.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Agents affecting health of mother and child in a rural area of Kenya. III. The epidemiology of measles.

PubMed

Voorhoeve, A M; Muller, A S; Schulpen, T W; Gemert, W; Valkenburg, H A; Ensering, H E

1977-12-01

Between April 1974 and March 1976 surveillance of measles has been conducted by 12 fieldworkers making fortnightly home visits among a total population of 24,000 living in nearly 4000 households scattered in variable density throughout an area of 87 sq km in the northern division of the Machakos district, Kenya. The diagnosis of measles was verified by one of the project's physicians according to standardized procedures and was, whenever possible, supported by virus isolation and serum antibody level determination. Because not all reported patients were actually seen during the period of clinical manifestations, the diagnosis remained doubtful in a number of cases. Incidence and mortality figures have been estimated with 95% confidence limits based on the assumption that doubtful cases represent a probability of measles of .33 and probable cases a probability of .67. The estimated attack rate for the susceptible population 0-15 years of age was 13.5%. When related to all children--susceptible or not--the attack rate was highest in the 1-2 years age group (11%). Almost 15% of cases occurred below the age of one year, 1% below 6 months of age and 6% between 6 and 8 months. The estimated case fatality rate was 6.5%, fatality being highest between 1 and 2 years of age. For the age group 0-15 years measles accounted for 16.7% of all deaths. The estimated death rate per 100,000 total population was 113. The epidemiological pattern of measles suggests continuous re-introduction of the measles virus in a dispersed population causing micro-outbreaks of the disease in geographically widely separated spots throughout the year which tends to keep the proportion of susceptibles down and the attack rate during a protracted epidemic relatively low.

Effects of density on growth, metamorphosis, and survivorship in tadpoles of Scaphiopus holbrooki

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Semlitsch, R.D.; Caldwell, J.P.

1982-08-01

Density-dependent aspects of growth, metamorphosis, and survivorship of Scaphiopus holbrooki tadpoles were examined in the laboratory under two experimental regimes. In the first density experiment, the growth index (W) of tadpoles decreased exponentially with density. Mean growth rate varied from 0.023 mL/d at the lowest density to 0.006 mL/d at the highest density. The mean number of days to metamorphic climax was positively associated with the initial density treatment: 27 d at the lowest density to 86 d at the highest density. The body size of tadpoles at metamorphosis showed a concave curvilinear relationship to initial density, indicating tadpoles atmore » the highest densities are apparently capable to growth recovery once released from density stress. The survival of tadpoles decreased exponentially with initial density, from 90% at the lowest density to 20% at the highest initial density. In the second experiment a cross-classified design was used to examine the effects of density and duration of treatment (time) on growth and metamorphosis. Density and time had significant effects on body size at metamorphosis and days to metamorphosis. There was no significant interaction between density and time. These results indicate that the inhibitory effect of density stress varies with the duration of the stress. Scaphiopus holbrooki tadpoles exhibit developmental traits (rapid growth, short larval period, small body size at metamorphosis) that should be favored by natural selection in high density habitats. Dispersability may be a mechanism whereby S. holbrooki can minimize the detrimental effects of density stress.« less

Probability function of breaking-limited surface elevation. [wind generated waves of ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tung, C. C.; Huang, N. E.; Yuan, Y.; Long, S. R.

1989-01-01

The effect of wave breaking on the probability function of surface elevation is examined. The surface elevation limited by wave breaking zeta sub b(t) is first related to the original wave elevation zeta(t) and its second derivative. An approximate, second-order, nonlinear, non-Gaussian model for zeta(t) of arbitrary but moderate bandwidth is presented, and an expression for the probability density function zeta sub b(t) is derived. The results show clearly that the effect of wave breaking on the probability density function of surface elevation is to introduce a secondary hump on the positive side of the probability density function, a phenomenon also observed in wind wave tank experiments.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation.

PubMed

Farmer, Jenny; Jacobs, Donald

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference.

High throughput nonparametric probability density estimation

PubMed Central

Farmer, Jenny

2018-01-01

In high throughput applications, such as those found in bioinformatics and finance, it is important to determine accurate probability distribution functions despite only minimal information about data characteristics, and without using human subjectivity. Such an automated process for univariate data is implemented to achieve this goal by merging the maximum entropy method with single order statistics and maximum likelihood. The only required properties of the random variables are that they are continuous and that they are, or can be approximated as, independent and identically distributed. A quasi-log-likelihood function based on single order statistics for sampled uniform random data is used to empirically construct a sample size invariant universal scoring function. Then a probability density estimate is determined by iteratively improving trial cumulative distribution functions, where better estimates are quantified by the scoring function that identifies atypical fluctuations. This criterion resists under and over fitting data as an alternative to employing the Bayesian or Akaike information criterion. Multiple estimates for the probability density reflect uncertainties due to statistical fluctuations in random samples. Scaled quantile residual plots are also introduced as an effective diagnostic to visualize the quality of the estimated probability densities. Benchmark tests show that estimates for the probability density function (PDF) converge to the true PDF as sample size increases on particularly difficult test probability densities that include cases with discontinuities, multi-resolution scales, heavy tails, and singularities. These results indicate the method has general applicability for high throughput statistical inference. PMID:29750803

Moments of the Particle Phase-Space Density at Freeze-out and Coincidence Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialas, A.; Czyż, W.; Zalewski, K.

2005-10-01

It is pointed out that the moments of phase-space particle density at freeze-out can be determined from the coincidence probabilities of the events observed in multiparticle production. A method to measure the coincidence probabilities is described and its validity examined.

Use of uninformative priors to initialize state estimation for dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, Johnny L.; Holzinger, Marcus J.

2017-10-01

The admissible region must be expressed probabilistically in order to be used in Bayesian estimation schemes. When treated as a probability density function (PDF), a uniform admissible region can be shown to have non-uniform probability density after a transformation. An alternative approach can be used to express the admissible region probabilistically according to the Principle of Transformation Groups. This paper uses a fundamental multivariate probability transformation theorem to show that regardless of which state space an admissible region is expressed in, the probability density must remain the same under the Principle of Transformation Groups. The admissible region can be shown to be analogous to an uninformative prior with a probability density that remains constant under reparameterization. This paper introduces requirements on how these uninformative priors may be transformed and used for state estimation and the difference in results when initializing an estimation scheme via a traditional transformation versus the alternative approach.

A comparison of food pattern, macro- and some micronutrients density of the diet across different socio-economic zones of Tehran

PubMed Central

Abdollahi, Morteza; Salehi, Forouzan; Kalantari, Naser; Asadilari, Mohsen; Khoshfetrat, Mohammad Reza; Ajami, Marjan

2016-01-01

Background: The consumption of low quality foods is common in low socioeconomic areas; and according to epidemiological studies, the density of nutrients often proves the quality of diet. This study aimed to compare the density of macronutrients and micronutrients in various parts of Tehran. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study performed from September to December 2007 in all the 22 districts of the municipality of Tehran including 1,807 households. Experienced interviewers completed a 24-hour recall questionnaire. To estimate the nutrient densities, nutrient intake (grams or milligrams) was calculated per 1,000 kcal energy intake. To calculate the density of energy intake, energy intake (kcal) was divided by 100 g of foodstuff. The 22 districts of Tehran were divided into five zones of north, center, east, west and south. ANOVA and Tukey tests were used. Results: The highest density of protein and fat intake was observed in the north of Tehran, while carbohydrate density was highest in the west, east and south zones, and energy density was highest in the south zone (p<0.05). Calcium and vitamin C had the highest density in the north of Tehran, and vitamin A and riboflavin had the highest density in the north and center of Tehran, and the lowest level in the south of Tehran (p<0.05). Conclusion: Despite the high density of energy in the south of Tehran, a deficiency of micronutrient intake was obvious, reflecting the importance of the impact of socioeconomic factors. PMID:27390710

Efficacy and safety of medical therapy for low bone mineral density in patients with Crohn disease

PubMed Central

Zhao, Xiaojing; Zhou, Changcheng; Chen, Han; Ma, Jingjing; Zhu, Yunjuan; Wang, Peixue; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Haiqin; Zhang, Hongjie

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Low bone mineral density (BMD) is a frequent complication of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), particularly in patients with Crohn disease (CD). The aim of our study is to determine the efficacy and safety of different drugs used to treat low BMD in patients with CD. Methods: PUBMED/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for eligible studies. A random-effects model within a Bayesian framework was applied to compare treatment effects as standardized mean difference (SMD) with their corresponding 95% credible interval (CrI), while odds ratio (OR) was applied to compare adverse events with 95% CrI. The surface under the cumulative ranking area (SUCRA) was calculated to make the ranking of the treatments for outcomes. Results: Twelve randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were eligible. Compared with placebo, zoledronate (SMDs 2.74, 95% CrI 1.36–4.11) and sodium-fluoride (SMDs 1.23, 95% CrI 0.19–2.26) revealed statistical significance in increasing lumbar spine BMD (LSBMD). According to SUCRA ranking, zoledronate (SUCRA = 2.5%) might have the highest probability to be the best treatment for increasing LSBMD in CD patients among all agents, followed by sodium-fluoride (27%). For safety assessment, the incidence of adverse events (AEs) demonstrated no statistical difference between agents and placebo. The corresponding SUCRA values indicated that risedronate (SUCRA = 77%) might be the most safe medicine for low BMD in CD patients and alendronate ranked the worst (SUCRA = 16%). Conclusions: Zoledronate might have the highest probability to be the best therapeutic strategy for increasing LSBMD. For the safety assessment, risedronate showed the greatest trend to decrease the risk of AEs. In the future, more RCTs with higher qualities are needed to make head-to-head comparison between 2 or more treatments. PMID:28296781

Supervised variational model with statistical inference and its application in medical image segmentation.

PubMed

Li, Changyang; Wang, Xiuying; Eberl, Stefan; Fulham, Michael; Yin, Yong; Dagan Feng, David

2015-01-01

Automated and general medical image segmentation can be challenging because the foreground and the background may have complicated and overlapping density distributions in medical imaging. Conventional region-based level set algorithms often assume piecewise constant or piecewise smooth for segments, which are implausible for general medical image segmentation. Furthermore, low contrast and noise make identification of the boundaries between foreground and background difficult for edge-based level set algorithms. Thus, to address these problems, we suggest a supervised variational level set segmentation model to harness the statistical region energy functional with a weighted probability approximation. Our approach models the region density distributions by using the mixture-of-mixtures Gaussian model to better approximate real intensity distributions and distinguish statistical intensity differences between foreground and background. The region-based statistical model in our algorithm can intuitively provide better performance on noisy images. We constructed a weighted probability map on graphs to incorporate spatial indications from user input with a contextual constraint based on the minimization of contextual graphs energy functional. We measured the performance of our approach on ten noisy synthetic images and 58 medical datasets with heterogeneous intensities and ill-defined boundaries and compared our technique to the Chan-Vese region-based level set model, the geodesic active contour model with distance regularization, and the random walker model. Our method consistently achieved the highest Dice similarity coefficient when compared to the other methods.

Spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic occurrence and association with bedrock geology in greater augusta, maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Q.; Jung, H.B.; Culbertson, C.W.; Marvinney, R.G.; Loiselle, M.C.; Locke, D.B.; Cheek, H.; Thibodeau, H.; Zheng, Yen

2009-01-01

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (100-101 km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed, and 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic concentrations >10 ??g/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 ??g/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (???40%). This probability differs significantly (p < 0.001) from those in the Silurian - Ordovician sandstone (24%), the Devonian granite (15%), and the Ordovician - Cambrian volcanic rocks (9%). The spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic distribution resembles the bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium, and high arsenic occurrences in four cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (???1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 ??g/L arsenic in groundwater. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Spatial Pattern of Groundwater Arsenic Occurrence and Association with Bedrock Geology in Greater Augusta, Maine, USA

PubMed Central

Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Culbertson, Charles W.; Marvinney, Robert G.; Loiselle, Marc C.; Locke, Daniel B.; Cheek, Heidi; Thibodeau, Hilary; Zheng, Yan

2009-01-01

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (100-101 km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed. 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic >10 μg/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 μg/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (~40%). This probability differs significantly (p<0.001) from those in the Silurian-Ordovician sandstone (24%), the Devonian granite (15%) and the Ordovician-Cambrian volcanic rocks (9%). The spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic distribution resembles the bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium and high arsenic occurrences in 4 cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (~1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 μg/L arsenic in groundwater. PMID:19475939

Spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic occurrence and association with bedrock geology in greater Augusta, Maine.

PubMed

Yang, Qiang; Jung, Hun Bok; Culbertson, Charles W; Marvinney, Robert G; Loiselle, Marc C; Locke, Daniel B; Cheek, Heidi; Thibodeau, Hilary; Zheng, Yan

2009-04-15

In New England, groundwater arsenic occurrence has been linked to bedrock geology on regional scales. To ascertain and quantify this linkage at intermediate (10(0)-10(1) km) scales, 790 groundwater samples from fractured bedrock aquifers in the greater Augusta, Maine area are analyzed, and 31% of the sampled wells have arsenic concentrations >10 microg/L. The probability of [As] exceeding 10 microg/L mapped by indicator kriging is highest in Silurian pelite-sandstone and pelite-limestone units (approximately 40%). This probability differs significantly (p < 0.001) from those in the Silurian-Ordovician sandstone (24%),the Devonian granite (15%), and the Ordovician-Cambrian volcanic rocks (9%). The spatial pattern of groundwater arsenic distribution resembles the bedrock map. Thus, bedrock geology is associated with arsenic occurrence in fractured bedrock aquifers of the study area at intermediate scales relevant to water resources planning. The arsenic exceedance rate for each rock unit is considered robust because low, medium, and high arsenic occurrences in four cluster areas (3-20 km2) with a low sampling density of 1-6 wells per km2 are comparable to those with a greater density of 5-42 wells per km2. About 12,000 people (21% of the population) in the greater Augusta area (approximately 1135 km2) are at risk of exposure to >10 microg/L arsenic in groundwater.

Avian use of Sheyenne Lake and associated habitats in central North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faanes, Craig A.

1982-01-01

A study of avian use of various habitats was conducted in the Sheyenne Lake region of central North Dakota during April-June 1980. Population counts of birds were made in wetlands of various classes, prairie thickets, upland native prairie, shelterbelts, and cropland. About 22,000 breeding bird pairs including 92 species that nested occupied the area. Population means for most species were equal to or greater than statewide means. Red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), yellow-headed blackbird (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus), mourning dove (Zenaida macroura), and blue-winged teal (Anas discors) were the most numerous species, and made up 32.9% of the total population . Highest densities of breeding birds occurred in shelterbelts, semipermanent wetlands, and prairie thickets. Lowest densities occurred in upland native prairie and cropland. The study area was used by 49.6% of the total avifauna of the State, and 51% of the breeding avifauna of North Dakota probably nested in the study area. The diversity of birds using the area was unusual in that such a large number of species occupied a relatively small area. The close interspersion of many native habitats, several of which are unique in North Dakota, probably accounted for this diversity. Data on dates of occurrence, nesting records, and habitat use are presented for the 175 species recorded in 1980. Observations of significance by refuge staff are also provided.

Beach debris in the Azores (NE Atlantic): Faial Island as a first case study.

PubMed

Pieper, Catharina; Ventura, Maria A; Martins, Ana; Cunha, Regina T

2015-12-30

Marine debris is widely recognised as a global environmental problem. This study assesses density, type, and temporal trends of marine debris in two sandy beaches of Faial Island (Azores, NE-Atlantic). During seven months (six days per month) the beaches were surveyed by performing 10 random transects at each site. Recorded items within the range 2-30 cm were organised into seven categories. Densities of total debris varied from 0 to 1.940 items m(-2), with plastics dominating both areas. Both beaches, presented the highest debris abundance in February, most probably related to prevailing winds and swell. Location and/or time of year also seemed to influence the type of debris present. These findings provide new insights into debris accumulation rates in the Azores, where no previous studies were made. It also confirms the global trend of increased plastics accumulation on shorelines, highlighting the need for further research in remote islands. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of estimators of probability density functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speed, F. M.

1972-01-01

Four research projects are summarized which include: (1) the generation of random numbers on the IBM 360/44, (2) statistical tests used to check out random number generators, (3) Specht density estimators, and (4) use of estimators of probability density functions in analyzing large amounts of data.

Fusion of Hard and Soft Information in Nonparametric Density Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-10

and stochastic optimization models, in analysis of simulation output, and when instantiating probability models. We adopt a constrained maximum...particular, density estimation is needed for generation of input densities to simulation and stochastic optimization models, in analysis of simulation output...an essential step in simulation analysis and stochastic optimization is the generation of probability densities for input random variables; see for

Buoyancy-driven melt segregation in the earth's moon. I - Numerical results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delano, J. W.

1990-01-01

The densities of lunar mare magmas have been estimated at liquidus temperatures for pressures from 0 to 47 kbar (0.4 GPa; center of the moon) using a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation and compositionally dependent parameters from Large and Carmichael (1987). Results on primary magmatic compositions represented by pristine volcanic glasses suggest that the density contrast between very-high-Ti melts and their liquidus olivines may approach zero at pressures of about 25 kbar (2.5 GPa). Since this is the pressure regime of the mantle source regions for these magmas, a compositional limit of eruptability for mare liquids may exist that is similar to the highest Ti melt yet observed among the lunar samples. Although the moon may have generated magmas having greater than 16.4 wt pct TiO2, those melts would probably not have reached the lunar surface due to their high densities, and may have even sunk deeper into the moon's interior as negatively buoyant diapirs. This process may have been important for assimilative interactions in the lunar mantle. The phenomenon of melt/solid density crossover may therefore occur not only in large terrestrial-type objects but also in small objects where, despite low pressures, the range of melt compositions is extreme.

Evaluating detection probabilities for American marten in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Joshua B.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Assessing the effectiveness of monitoring techniques designed to determine presence of forest carnivores, such as American marten (Martes americana), is crucial for validation of survey results. Although comparisons between techniques have been made, little attention has been paid to the issue of detection probabilities (p). Thus, the underlying assumption has been that detection probabilities equal 1.0. We used presence-absence data obtained from a track-plate survey in conjunction with results from a saturation-trapping study to derive detection probabilities when marten occurred at high (>2 marten/10.2 km2) and low (???1 marten/10.2 km2) densities within 8 10.2-km2 quadrats. Estimated probability of detecting marten in high-density quadrats was p = 0.952 (SE = 0.047), whereas the detection probability for low-density quadrats was considerably lower (p = 0.333, SE = 0.136). Our results indicated that failure to account for imperfect detection could lead to an underestimation of marten presence in 15-52% of low-density quadrats in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We recommend that repeated site-survey data be analyzed to assess detection probabilities when documenting carnivore survey results.

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities resulting from small datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiaxin; Shields, Michael D.

2018-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of uncertainty quantification and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are scarce. We propose a methodology wherein the full uncertainty associated with probability model form and parameter estimation are retained and efficiently propagated. This is achieved by applying the information-theoretic multimodel inference method to identify plausible candidate probability densities and associated probabilities that each method is the best model in the Kullback-Leibler sense. The joint parameter densities for each plausible model are then estimated using Bayes' rule. We then propagate this full set of probability models by estimating an optimal importance sampling density that is representative of all plausible models, propagating this density, and reweighting the samples according to each of the candidate probability models. This is in contrast with conventional methods that try to identify a single probability model that encapsulates the full uncertainty caused by lack of data and consequently underestimate uncertainty. The result is a complete probabilistic description of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty achieved with several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost. It is shown how the model can be updated to adaptively accommodate added data and added candidate probability models. The method is applied for uncertainty analysis of plate buckling strength where it is demonstrated how dataset size affects the confidence (or lack thereof) we can place in statistical estimates of response when data are lacking.

Does the different mowing regime affect soil biological activity and floristic composition of thermophilous Pieniny meadow?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Józefowska, Agnieszka; Zaleski, Tomasz; Zarzycki, Jan

2016-04-01

The study area was located in the Pieniny National Park in the Carpathian Mountain (Southern Poland). About 30% of Park's area is covered by meadows. The climax stage of this area is forest. Therefore extensive use is indispensable action to keep semi-natural grassland such as termophilous Pieniny meadows, which are characterized by a very high biodiversity. The purpose of this research was to answer the question, how the different way of mowing: traditional scything (H), and mechanical mowing (M) or abandonment of mowing (N) effect on the biological activity of soil. Soil biological activity has been expressed by microbial and soil fauna activity. Microbial activity was described directly by count of microorganisms and indirectly by enzymatic activity (dehydrogenase - DHA) and the microbial biomass carbon content (MBC). Enchytraeidae and Lumbricidae were chosen as representatives of soil fauna. Density and species diversity of this Oligochaeta was determined. Samples were collected twice in June (before mowing) and in September (after mowing). Basic soil properties, such as pH value, organic carbon and nitrogen content, moisture and temperature, were determined. Mean count of vegetative bacteria forms, fungi and Actinobacteria was higher in H than M and N. Amount of bacteria connected with nitrification and denitrification process and Clostridium pasteurianum was the highest in soil where mowing was discontinued 11 years ago. The microbial activity measured indirectly by MBC and DHA indicated that the M had the highest activity. The soil biological activity in second term of sampling had generally higher activity than soil collected in June. That was probably connected with highest organic carbon content in soil resulting from mowing and the end of growing season. Higher earthworm density was in mowing soil (220 and 208 individuals m-2 in H and M respectively) compare to non-mowing one (77 ind. m-2). The density of Enchytraeidae was inversely, the higher density was noted in N (34639 ind. m-2) than in mowing one (16266 and 25904 ind. m-2 H and M respectively). The species diversity of Enchytraeidae was the highest in H variant (15 - number of determined species) next N (11) and the lowest was in M variant (9). There was noted decrease in soil fauna abundance before and after mechanical mowing, it was 50% for Lumbricidae and 32% for Enchytraeidae. The study was supported by the special purpose grant for scientific research or development work and related tasks, contributing to the development of young scientists and doctoral students UR financed through a competition in 2015 No. BM - 4162/15

Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, J.-N.

1972-01-01

The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

The force distribution probability function for simple fluids by density functional theory.

PubMed

Rickayzen, G; Heyes, D M

2013-02-28

Classical density functional theory (DFT) is used to derive a formula for the probability density distribution function, P(F), and probability distribution function, W(F), for simple fluids, where F is the net force on a particle. The final formula for P(F) ∝ exp(-AF(2)), where A depends on the fluid density, the temperature, and the Fourier transform of the pair potential. The form of the DFT theory used is only applicable to bounded potential fluids. When combined with the hypernetted chain closure of the Ornstein-Zernike equation, the DFT theory for W(F) agrees with molecular dynamics computer simulations for the Gaussian and bounded soft sphere at high density. The Gaussian form for P(F) is still accurate at lower densities (but not too low density) for the two potentials, but with a smaller value for the constant, A, than that predicted by the DFT theory.

Postfragmentation density function for bacterial aggregates in laminar flow

PubMed Central

Byrne, Erin; Dzul, Steve; Solomon, Michael; Younger, John

2014-01-01

The postfragmentation probability density of daughter flocs is one of the least well-understood aspects of modeling flocculation. We use three-dimensional positional data of Klebsiella pneumoniae bacterial flocs in suspension and the knowledge of hydrodynamic properties of a laminar flow field to construct a probability density function of floc volumes after a fragmentation event. We provide computational results which predict that the primary fragmentation mechanism for large flocs is erosion. The postfragmentation probability density function has a strong dependence on the size of the original floc and indicates that most fragmentation events result in clumps of one to three bacteria eroding from the original floc. We also provide numerical evidence that exhaustive fragmentation yields a limiting density inconsistent with the log-normal density predicted in the literature, most likely due to the heterogeneous nature of K. pneumoniae flocs. To support our conclusions, artificial flocs were generated and display similar postfragmentation density and exhaustive fragmentation. PMID:21599205

Emission properties of Ce-doped alkaline earth borate glasses for scintillator applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torimoto, Aya; Masai, Hirokazu; Okada, Go; Kawaguchi, Noriaki; Yanagida, Takayuki

2017-11-01

We investigate the photoluminescence (PL) and X-ray-induced luminescence properties of 0.1 mol% Ce-doped MO-B2O3 (M = Ca, Sr, and Ba) glasses. We also determine the Ce3+/(Ce3++Ce4+) ratio by X-ray absorption near-edge structure analyses. The emission intensities of PL, X-ray scintillation, and thermally stimulated luminescence (TSL) depend on the host glass composition. The order of the PL intensity from highest to lowest is as follows: Ca-substituted glass, Ba-substituted glass, and Sr-substituted glass. Our results suggest that the optical absorption edge and quantum yield (QY) are influenced by the local coordination state of Ce3+, which, in turn, is likely to be affected by the optical basicity. The order of the X-ray scintillation intensity from highest to lowest is reverse of that of the PL intensity. This is probably because the interaction probability of X-rays with matter depends on the effective atomic number of the material and the effective atomic number has a stronger influence on the scintillation intensity than does the QY. Though the TSL glow curves reveal that the density and energy depth of the trap sites depend on the substituted alkaline earth oxides, we are unable to correlate the electron spin resonance (ESR) spectra with the TSL results. Therefore, it is considered that the ESR active sites are not responsible for the TSL in these systems.

Speech processing using conditional observable maximum likelihood continuity mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogden, John; Nix, David

A computer implemented method enables the recognition of speech and speech characteristics. Parameters are initialized of first probability density functions that map between the symbols in the vocabulary of one or more sequences of speech codes that represent speech sounds and a continuity map. Parameters are also initialized of second probability density functions that map between the elements in the vocabulary of one or more desired sequences of speech transcription symbols and the continuity map. The parameters of the probability density functions are then trained to maximize the probabilities of the desired sequences of speech-transcription symbols. A new sequence ofmore » speech codes is then input to the continuity map having the trained first and second probability function parameters. A smooth path is identified on the continuity map that has the maximum probability for the new sequence of speech codes. The probability of each speech transcription symbol for each input speech code can then be output.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, K.S.

The presence of overpopulation or unsustainable population growth may place pressure on the food and water supplies of countries in sensitive areas of the world. Severe air or water pollution may place additional pressure on these resources. These pressures may generate both internal and international conflict in these areas as nations struggle to provide for their citizens. Such conflicts may result in United States intervention, either unilaterally, or through the United Nations. Therefore, it is in the interests of the United States to identify potential areas of conflict in order to properly train and allocate forces. The purpose of thismore » research is to forecast the probability of conflict in a nation as a function of it s environmental conditions. Probit, logit and ordered probit models are employed to forecast the probability of a given level of conflict. Data from 95 countries are used to estimate the models. Probability forecasts are generated for these 95 nations. Out-of sample forecasts are generated for an additional 22 nations. These probabilities are then used to rank nations from highest probability of conflict to lowest. The results indicate that the dependence of a nation`s economy on agriculture, the rate of deforestation, and the population density are important variables in forecasting the probability and level of conflict. These results indicate that environmental variables do play a role in generating or exacerbating conflict. It is unclear that the United States military has any direct role in mitigating the environmental conditions that may generate conflict. A more important role for the military is to aid in data gathering to generate better forecasts so that the troops are adequntely prepared when conflicts arises.« less

Generalized skew-symmetric interfacial probability distribution in reflectivity and small-angle scattering analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Zhang; Chen, Wei

Generalized skew-symmetric probability density functions are proposed to model asymmetric interfacial density distributions for the parameterization of any arbitrary density profiles in the `effective-density model'. The penetration of the densities into adjacent layers can be selectively controlled and parameterized. A continuous density profile is generated and discretized into many independent slices of very thin thickness with constant density values and sharp interfaces. The discretized profile can be used to calculate reflectivities via Parratt's recursive formula, or small-angle scattering via the concentric onion model that is also developed in this work.

Generalized skew-symmetric interfacial probability distribution in reflectivity and small-angle scattering analysis

DOE PAGES

Jiang, Zhang; Chen, Wei

2017-11-03

Generalized skew-symmetric probability density functions are proposed to model asymmetric interfacial density distributions for the parameterization of any arbitrary density profiles in the `effective-density model'. The penetration of the densities into adjacent layers can be selectively controlled and parameterized. A continuous density profile is generated and discretized into many independent slices of very thin thickness with constant density values and sharp interfaces. The discretized profile can be used to calculate reflectivities via Parratt's recursive formula, or small-angle scattering via the concentric onion model that is also developed in this work.

Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kracklauer, A. F.

Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a fewmore » details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.« less

Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kracklauer, A. F.

2007-12-01

Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

LFSPMC: Linear feature selection program using the probability of misclassification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guseman, L. F., Jr.; Marion, B. P.

1975-01-01

The computational procedure and associated computer program for a linear feature selection technique are presented. The technique assumes that: a finite number, m, of classes exists; each class is described by an n-dimensional multivariate normal density function of its measurement vectors; the mean vector and covariance matrix for each density function are known (or can be estimated); and the a priori probability for each class is known. The technique produces a single linear combination of the original measurements which minimizes the one-dimensional probability of misclassification defined by the transformed densities.

Momentum Probabilities for a Single Quantum Particle in Three-Dimensional Regular "Infinite" Wells: One Way of Promoting Understanding of Probability Densities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riggs, Peter J.

2013-01-01

Students often wrestle unsuccessfully with the task of correctly calculating momentum probability densities and have difficulty in understanding their interpretation. In the case of a particle in an "infinite" potential well, its momentum can take values that are not just those corresponding to the particle's quantised energies but…

Generalized Maximum Entropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John

2005-01-01

A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

Evaluation of a pretest scoring system (4Ts) for the diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia in a university hospital setting.

PubMed

Vatanparast, Rodina; Lantz, Sarah; Ward, Kristine; Crilley, Pamela Ann; Styler, Michael

2012-11-01

The initial diagnosis of heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) is made on clinical grounds because the assays with the highest sensitivity (eg, heparin-platelet factor 4 antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [ELISA]) and specificity (eg, serotonin release assay) may not be readily available. The clinical utility of the pretest scoring system, the 4Ts, was developed and validated by Lo et al in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis in 2006. The pretest scoring system looks at the degree and timing of thrombocytopenia, thrombosis, and the possibility of other etiologies. Based on the 4T score, patients can be categorized as having a high, intermediate, or low probability of having HIT. We conducted a retrospective study of 100 consecutive patients who were tested for HIT during their hospitalization at Hahnemann University Hospital (Philadelphia, PA) in 2009. Of the 100 patients analyzed, 72, 23, and 5 patients had 4T pretest probability scores of low, intermediate, and high, respectively. A positive HIT ELISA (optical density > 1.0 unit) was detected in 0 of 72 patients (0%) in the low probability group, in 5 of 23 patients (22%) in the intermediate probability group, and in 2 of 5 patients (40%) in the high probability group. The average turnaround time for the HIT ELISA was 4 to 5 days. Fourteen (19%) of the 72 patients with a low pretest probability of HIT were treated with a direct thrombin inhibitor. Ten (71%) of the 14 patients in the low probability group treated with a direct thrombin inhibitor had a major complication of bleeding requiring blood transfusion support. In this retrospective study, a low 4T score showed 100% correlation with a negative HIT antibody assay. We recommend incorporating the 4T scoring system into institutional core measures when assessing a patient with suspected HIT, selecting only patients with intermediate to high probability for therapeutic intervention, which may translate into reduced morbidity and lower health care costs.

Permeability structure and its influence on microbial activity at off-Shimokita basin, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanikawa, W.; Yamada, Y.; Sanada, Y.; Kubo, Y.; Inagaki, F.

2016-12-01

The microbial populations and the limit of microbial life are probably limited by chemical, physical, and geological conditions, such as temperature, pore water chemistry, pH, and water activity; however, the key parameters affecting growth in deep subseafloor sediments remain unclarified (Hinrichs and Inagaki 2012). IODP expedition 337 was conducted near a continental margin basin off Shimokita Peninsula, Japan to investigate the microbial activity under deep marine coalbed sediments down to 2500 mbsf. Inagaki et al. (2015) discovered that microbial abundance decreased markedly with depth (the lowest cell density of <1 cell/cm3 was recorded below 2000 mbsf), and that the coal bed layers had relatively higher cell densities. In this study, permeability was measured on core samples from IODP Expedition 337 and Expedition CK06-06 in the D/V Chikyu shakedown cruise. Permeability was measured at in-situ effective pressure condition. Permeability was calculated by the steady state flow method by keeping differential pore pressure from 0.1 to 0.8 MPa.Our results show that the permeability for core samples decreases with depth from 10-16 m2 on the seafloor to 10-20 m2 at the bottom of hole. However, permeability is highly scattered within the coal bed unit (1900 to 2000 mbsf). Permeabilities for sandstone and coal is higher than those for siltstone and shale, therefore the scatter of the permeabilities at the same unit is due to the high variation of lithology. The highest permeability was observed in coal samples and this is probably due to formation of micro cracks (cleats). Permeability estimated from the NMR logging using the empirical parameters is around two orders of magnitude higher than permeability of core samples, even though the relative permeability variation at vertical direction is quite similar between core and logging data.The higher cell density is observed in the relatively permeable formation. On the other hand, the correlation between cell density, water activity, and porosity is not clear. On the assumption that pressure gradient is constant through the depth, flow rate can be proportional to permeability of sediments. Flow rate probably restricts the availability of energy and nutrient for microorganism, therefore permeability might have influenced on the microbial activity in the coalbed basin.

Switching probability of all-perpendicular spin valve nanopillars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzoufras, M.

2018-05-01

In all-perpendicular spin valve nanopillars the probability density of the free-layer magnetization is independent of the azimuthal angle and its evolution equation simplifies considerably compared to the general, nonaxisymmetric geometry. Expansion of the time-dependent probability density to Legendre polynomials enables analytical integration of the evolution equation and yields a compact expression for the practically relevant switching probability. This approach is valid when the free layer behaves as a single-domain magnetic particle and it can be readily applied to fitting experimental data.

Postfragmentation density function for bacterial aggregates in laminar flow.

PubMed

Byrne, Erin; Dzul, Steve; Solomon, Michael; Younger, John; Bortz, David M

2011-04-01

The postfragmentation probability density of daughter flocs is one of the least well-understood aspects of modeling flocculation. We use three-dimensional positional data of Klebsiella pneumoniae bacterial flocs in suspension and the knowledge of hydrodynamic properties of a laminar flow field to construct a probability density function of floc volumes after a fragmentation event. We provide computational results which predict that the primary fragmentation mechanism for large flocs is erosion. The postfragmentation probability density function has a strong dependence on the size of the original floc and indicates that most fragmentation events result in clumps of one to three bacteria eroding from the original floc. We also provide numerical evidence that exhaustive fragmentation yields a limiting density inconsistent with the log-normal density predicted in the literature, most likely due to the heterogeneous nature of K. pneumoniae flocs. To support our conclusions, artificial flocs were generated and display similar postfragmentation density and exhaustive fragmentation. ©2011 American Physical Society

The Influence of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Children's Production of Newly Learned Words

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heisler, Lori; Goffman, Lisa

2016-01-01

A word learning paradigm was used to teach children novel words that varied in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density. The effects of frequency and density on speech production were examined when phonetic forms were nonreferential (i.e., when no referent was attached) and when phonetic forms were referential (i.e., when a referent was…

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herzog, James P. (Inventor); Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Simple gain probability functions for large reflector antennas of JPL/NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jamnejad, V.

2003-01-01

Simple models for the patterns as well as their cumulative gain probability and probability density functions of the Deep Space Network antennas are developed. These are needed for the study and evaluation of interference from unwanted sources such as the emerging terrestrial system, High Density Fixed Service, with the Ka-band receiving antenna systems in Goldstone Station of the Deep Space Network.

Yield of MRI, high-density electric source imaging (HD-ESI), SPECT and PET in epilepsy surgery candidates.

PubMed

Lascano, Agustina M; Perneger, Thomas; Vulliemoz, Serge; Spinelli, Laurent; Garibotto, Valentina; Korff, Christian M; Vargas, Maria I; Michel, Christoph M; Seeck, Margitta

2016-01-01

Preoperative workup aims at localizing the epileptogenic focus to achieve postoperative seizure-freedom. We studied the predictive value of non-invasive techniques, i.e. structural magnetic resonance imaging [MRI], high-density electric source imaging [HD-ESI] and metabolic imaging (positron emission tomography [PET]; single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), in surgically treated patients. A prospective study of 190 epileptic operated patients, with >12 months follow-up and analyzed with state-of-the-art algorithms. 58 patients underwent all techniques. We computed sensitivity, specificity, predictive value and diagnostic odds ratio (OR) in relation to postoperative outcome. Of 190 patients, 148 (77.9%) were seizure-free at follow-up. Resection of the epileptogenic focus was associated with favorable postsurgical outcome (p<0.05). Among 58 patients who underwent all tests, only MRI and HD-ESI were favorable outcome predictors (MRI: OR 10.9, p=0.004; HD-ESI: OR 13.1, p=0.004). Patients with concordant structural MRI and HD-ESI results had 92.3% (24/26) probability of favorable outcome. When both results were negative, probability was 0% (0/5); and when they disagreed, it was 63.0% (17/27). Combination of MRI and HD-ESI offered the highest predictive value for postoperative seizure-freedom. This finding highlights the added value of HD-ESI in the presurgical workup, in particular in combination with an informative MRI. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution and health risk assessment of toxic metals associated with receptor population density in street dust: a case study of Xiandao District, Changsha, Middle China.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Huang, Jinhui; Zeng, Guangming; Huang, Xiaolong; Liu, Wenchu; Wu, Haipeng; Yuan, Yujie; He, Xiaoxiao; Lai, Mingyong

2015-05-01

Spatial characteristics of the properties (dust organic material and pH), concentrations, and enrichment levels of toxic metals (Ni, Hg, Mn and As) in street dust from Xiandao District (Middle China) were investigated. Method of incorporating receptor population density into noncarcinogenic health risk assessment based on local land use map and geostatistics was developed to identify their priority pollutants/regions of concern. Mean enrichment factors of studied metals decreased in the order of Hg ≈ As > Mn > Ni. For noncarcinogenic effects, the exposure pathway which resulted in the highest levels of exposure risk for children and adults was ingestion except Hg (inhalation of vapors), followed by dermal contact and inhalation. Hazard indexes (HIs) for As, Hg, Mn, and Ni to children and adults revealed the following order: As > Hg > Mn > Ni. Mean HI for As exceeded safe level (1) for children, and the maximum HI (0.99) for Hg was most approached the safe level. Priority regions of concern were indentified in A region at each residential population density and the areas of B at high and moderate residential population density for As and the high residential density area within A region for Hg, respectively. The developed method was proved useful due to its improvement on previous study for making the priority areas of environmental management spatially hierarchical and thus reducing the probability of excessive environmental management.

Quantification of mammographic masking risk with volumetric breast density maps: how to select women for supplemental screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Katharina; van Gils, Carla H.; Wanders, Johanna OP; Mann, Ritse M.; Karssemeijer, Nico

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of mammograms is low for women with dense breasts, since cancers may be masked by dense tissue. In this study, we investigated methods to identify women with density patterns associated with a high masking risk. Risk measures are derived from volumetric breast density maps. We used the last negative screening mammograms of 93 women who subsequently presented with an interval cancer (IC), and, as controls, 930 randomly selected normal screening exams from women without cancer. Volumetric breast density maps were computed from the mammograms, which provide the dense tissue thickness at each location. These were used to compute absolute and percentage glandular tissue volume. We modeled the masking risk for each pixel location using the absolute and percentage dense tissue thickness and we investigated the effect of taking the cancer location probability distribution (CLPD) into account. For each method, we selected cases with the highest masking measure (by thresholding) and computed the fraction of ICs as a function of the fraction of controls selected. The latter can be interpreted as the negative supplemental screening rate (NSSR). Between the models, when incorporating CLPD, no significant differences were found. In general, the methods performed better when CLPD was included. At higher NSSRs some of the investigated masking measures had a significantly higher performance than volumetric breast density. These measures may therefore serve as an alternative to identify women with a high risk for a masked cancer.

Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

PubMed

Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

2008-04-01

Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

Width of the Surface Rupture Zone for Thrust Earthquakes and Implications for Earthquake Fault Zoning: Chi-Chi 1999 and Wenchuan 2008 Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boncio, P.; Caldarella, M.

2016-12-01

We analyze the zones of coseismic surface faulting along thrust faults, whit the aim of defining the most appropriate criteria for zoning the Surface Fault Rupture Hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults. Normal and strike-slip faults were deeply studied in the past, while thrust faults were not studied with comparable attention. We analyze the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan (Mw 7.6) and 2008 Wenchuan, China (Mw 7.9) earthquakes. Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the two earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials. For both the earthquakes, we collected from the literature, or measured in GIS-georeferenced published maps, data about the Width of the coseismic Rupture Zone (WRZ). The frequency distribution of WRZ compared to the trace of the main fault shows that the surface ruptures occur mainly on and near the main fault. Ruptures located away from the main fault occur mainly in the hanging wall. Where structural complexities are present (e.g., sharp bends, step-overs), WRZ is wider then for simple fault traces. We also fitted the distribution of the WRZ dataset with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to remove outliers (e.g., by selecting 90% or 95% probability) and define the zone where the probability of SFRH is the highest. This might help in sizing the zones of SFRH during seismic microzonation (SM) mapping. In order to shape zones of SFRH, a very detailed earthquake geologic study of the fault is necessary. In the absence of such a very detailed study, during basic (First level) SM mapping, a width of 350-400 m seems to be recommended (95% of probability). If the fault is carefully mapped (higher level SM), one must consider that the highest SFRH is concentrated in a narrow zone, 50 m-wide, that should be considered as a "fault-avoidance (or setback) zone". These fault zones should be asymmetric. The ratio of footwall to hanging wall (FW:HW) calculated here ranges from 1:5 to 1:3.

Heterogeneous occupancy and density estimates of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in waters of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chestnut, Tara E.; Anderson, Chauncey; Popa, Radu; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Voytek, Mary; Olson, Deanna H.; Kirshtein, Julie

2014-01-01

Biodiversity losses are occurring worldwide due to a combination of stressors. For example, by one estimate, 40% of amphibian species are vulnerable to extinction, and disease is one threat to amphibian populations. The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a contributor to amphibian declines worldwide. Bd research has focused on the dynamics of the pathogen in its amphibian hosts, with little emphasis on investigating the dynamics of free-living Bd. Therefore, we investigated patterns of Bd occupancy and density in amphibian habitats using occupancy models, powerful tools for estimating site occupancy and detection probability. Occupancy models have been used to investigate diseases where the focus was on pathogen occurrence in the host. We applied occupancy models to investigate free-living Bd in North American surface waters to determine Bd seasonality, relationships between Bd site occupancy and habitat attributes, and probability of detection from water samples as a function of the number of samples, sample volume, and water quality. We also report on the temporal patterns of Bd density from a 4-year case study of a Bd-positive wetland. We provide evidence that Bd occurs in the environment year-round. Bd exhibited temporal and spatial heterogeneity in density, but did not exhibit seasonality in occupancy. Bd was detected in all months, typically at less than 100 zoospores L−1. The highest density observed was ∼3 million zoospores L−1. We detected Bd in 47% of sites sampled, but estimated that Bd occupied 61% of sites, highlighting the importance of accounting for imperfect detection. When Bd was present, there was a 95% chance of detecting it with four samples of 600 ml of water or five samples of 60 mL. Our findings provide important baseline information to advance the study of Bd disease ecology, and advance our understanding of amphibian exposure to free-living Bd in aquatic habitats over time.

A protocol for searching the most probable phase-retrieved maps in coherent X-ray diffraction imaging by exploiting the relationship between convergence of the retrieved phase and success of calculation.

PubMed

Sekiguchi, Yuki; Hashimoto, Saki; Kobayashi, Amane; Oroguchi, Tomotaka; Nakasako, Masayoshi

2017-09-01

Coherent X-ray diffraction imaging (CXDI) is a technique for visualizing the structures of non-crystalline particles with size in the submicrometer to micrometer range in material sciences and biology. In the structural analysis of CXDI, the electron density map of a specimen particle projected along the direction of the incident X-rays can be reconstructed only from the diffraction pattern by using phase-retrieval (PR) algorithms. However, in practice, the reconstruction, relying entirely on the computational procedure, sometimes fails because diffraction patterns miss the data in small-angle regions owing to the beam stop and saturation of the detector pixels, and are modified by Poisson noise in X-ray detection. To date, X-ray free-electron lasers have allowed us to collect a large number of diffraction patterns within a short period of time. Therefore, the reconstruction of correct electron density maps is the bottleneck for efficiently conducting structure analyses of non-crystalline particles. To automatically address the correctness of retrieved electron density maps, a data analysis protocol to extract the most probable electron density maps from a set of maps retrieved from 1000 different random seeds for a single diffraction pattern is proposed. Through monitoring the variations of the phase values during PR calculations, the tendency for the PR calculations to succeed when the retrieved phase sets converged on a certain value was found. On the other hand, if the phase set was in persistent variation, the PR calculation tended to fail to yield the correct electron density map. To quantify this tendency, here a figure of merit for the variation of the phase values during PR calculation is introduced. In addition, a PR protocol to evaluate the similarity between a map of the highest figure of merit and other independently reconstructed maps is proposed. The protocol is implemented and practically examined in the structure analyses for diffraction patterns from aggregates of gold colloidal particles. Furthermore, the feasibility of the protocol in the structure analysis of organelles from biological cells is examined.

Comparison of methods for estimating density of forest songbirds from point counts

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R. Thompson; J. Wesley. Bailey

2011-01-01

New analytical methods have been promoted for estimating the probability of detection and density of birds from count data but few studies have compared these methods using real data. We compared estimates of detection probability and density from distance and time-removal models and survey protocols based on 5- or 10-min counts and outer radii of 50 or 100 m. We...

Spatial correlations and probability density function of the phase difference in a developed speckle-field: numerical and natural experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mysina, N Yu; Maksimova, L A; Ryabukho, V P

Investigated are statistical properties of the phase difference of oscillations in speckle-fields at two points in the far-field diffraction region, with different shapes of the scatterer aperture. Statistical and spatial nonuniformity of the probability density function of the field phase difference is established. Numerical experiments show that, for the speckle-fields with an oscillating alternating-sign transverse correlation function, a significant nonuniformity of the probability density function of the phase difference in the correlation region of the field complex amplitude, with the most probable values 0 and p, is observed. A natural statistical interference experiment using Young diagrams has confirmed the resultsmore » of numerical experiments. (laser applications and other topics in quantum electronics)« less

Prostate specific antigen density to predict prostate cancer upgrading in a contemporary radical prostatectomy series: a single center experience.

PubMed

Magheli, Ahmed; Hinz, Stefan; Hege, Claudia; Stephan, Carsten; Jung, Klaus; Miller, Kurt; Lein, Michael

2010-01-01

We investigated the value of pretreatment prostate specific antigen density to predict Gleason score upgrading in light of significant changes in grading routine in the last 2 decades. Of 1,061 consecutive men who underwent radical prostatectomy between 1999 and 2004, 843 were eligible for study. Prostate specific antigen density was calculated and a cutoff for highest accuracy to predict Gleason upgrading was determined using ROC curve analysis. The predictive accuracy of prostate specific antigen and prostate specific antigen density to predict Gleason upgrading was evaluated using ROC curve analysis based on predicted probabilities from logistic regression models. Prostate specific antigen and prostate specific antigen density predicted Gleason upgrading on univariate analysis (as continuous variables OR 1.07 and 7.21, each p <0.001) and on multivariate analysis (as continuous variables with prostate specific antigen density adjusted for prostate specific antigen OR 1.07, p <0.001 and OR 4.89, p = 0.037, respectively). When prostate specific antigen density was added to the model including prostate specific antigen and other Gleason upgrading predictors, prostate specific antigen lost its predictive value (OR 1.02, p = 0.423), while prostate specific antigen density remained an independent predictor (OR 4.89, p = 0.037). Prostate specific antigen density was more accurate than prostate specific antigen to predict Gleason upgrading (AUC 0.61 vs 0.57, p = 0.030). Prostate specific antigen density is a significant independent predictor of Gleason upgrading even when accounting for prostate specific antigen. This could be especially important in patients with low risk prostate cancer who seek less invasive therapy such as active surveillance since potentially life threatening disease may be underestimated. Further studies are warranted to help evaluate the role of prostate specific antigen density in Gleason upgrading and its significance for biochemical outcome.

Release of cell-free ice nuclei from Halomonas elongata expressing the ice nucleation gene inaZ of Pseudomonas syringae.

PubMed

Tegos, G; Vargas, C; Perysinakis, A; Koukkou, A I; Christogianni, A; Nieto, J J; Ventosa, A; Drainas, C

2000-11-01

Release of ice nuclei in the growth medium of recombinant Halomonas elongata cells expressing the inaZ gene of Pseudomonas syringae was studied in an attempt to produce cell-free active ice nuclei for biotechnological applications. Cell-free ice nuclei were not retained by cellulose acetate filters of 0.2 microm pore size. Highest activity of cell-free ice nuclei was obtained when cells were grown in low salinity (0.5-5% NaCl, w/v). Freezing temperature threshold, estimated to be below -7 degrees C indicating class C nuclei, was not affected by medium salinity. Their density, as estimated by Percoll density centrifugation, was 1.018 +/- 0.002 gml(-1) and they were found to be free of lipids. Ice nuclei are released in the growth medium of recombinant H. elongata cells probably because of inefficient anchoring of the ice-nucleation protein aggregates in the outer membrane. The ice+ recombinant H. elongata cells could be useful for future use as a source of active cell-free ice nucleation protein.

Ozone reactions with indoor materials during building disinfection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppendieck, D.; Hubbard, H.; Ward, M.; Weschler, C.; Corsi, R. L.

There is scant information related to heterogeneous indoor chemistry at ozone concentrations necessary for the effective disinfection of buildings, i.e., hundreds to thousands of ppm. In the present study, 24 materials were exposed for 16 h to ozone concentrations of 1000-1200 ppm in the inlet streams of test chambers. Initial ozone deposition velocities were similar to those reported in the published literature for much lower ozone concentrations, but decayed rapidly as reaction sites on material surfaces were consumed. For every material, deposition velocities converged to a relatively constant, and typically low, value after approximately 11 h. The four materials with the highest sustained deposition velocities were ceiling tile, office partition, medium density fiberboard and gypsum wallboard backing. Analysis of ozone reaction probabilities indicated that throughout each experiment, and particularly after several hours of disinfection, surface reaction resistance dominated the overall resistance to ozone deposition for nearly all materials. Total building disinfection by-products (all carbonyls) were quantified per unit area of each material for the experimental period. Paper, office partition, and medium density fiberboard each released greater than 38 mg m -2 of by-products.

Social Network Analysis and Mining to Monitor and Identify Problems with Large-Scale Information and Communication Technology Interventions

PubMed Central

da Silva, Aleksandra do Socorro; de Brito, Silvana Rossy; Vijaykumar, Nandamudi Lankalapalli; da Rocha, Cláudio Alex Jorge; Monteiro, Maurílio de Abreu; Costa, João Crisóstomo Weyl Albuquerque; Francês, Carlos Renato Lisboa

2016-01-01

The published literature reveals several arguments concerning the strategic importance of information and communication technology (ICT) interventions for developing countries where the digital divide is a challenge. Large-scale ICT interventions can be an option for countries whose regions, both urban and rural, present a high number of digitally excluded people. Our goal was to monitor and identify problems in interventions aimed at certification for a large number of participants in different geographical regions. Our case study is the training at the Telecentros.BR, a program created in Brazil to install telecenters and certify individuals to use ICT resources. We propose an approach that applies social network analysis and mining techniques to data collected from Telecentros.BR dataset and from the socioeconomics and telecommunications infrastructure indicators of the participants’ municipalities. We found that (i) the analysis of interactions in different time periods reflects the objectives of each phase of training, highlighting the increased density in the phase in which participants develop and disseminate their projects; (ii) analysis according to the roles of participants (i.e., tutors or community members) reveals that the interactions were influenced by the center (or region) to which the participant belongs (that is, a community contained mainly members of the same region and always with the presence of tutors, contradicting expectations of the training project, which aimed for intense collaboration of the participants, regardless of the geographic region); (iii) the social network of participants influences the success of the training: that is, given evidence that the degree of the community member is in the highest range, the probability of this individual concluding the training is 0.689; (iv) the North region presented the lowest probability of participant certification, whereas the Northeast, which served municipalities with similar characteristics, presented high probability of certification, associated with the highest degree in social networking platform. PMID:26727472

Roads at risk - the impact of debris flows on road network reliability and vulnerability in southern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Nele Kristin; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Korup, Oliver

2014-05-01

Norwegian's road network is frequently affected by debris flows. Both damage repair and traffic interruption generate high economic losses and necessitate a rigorous assessment of where losses are expected to be high and where preventive measures should be focused on. In recent studies, we have developed susceptibility and trigger probability maps that serve as input into a hazard calculation at the scale of first-order watersheds. Here we combine these results with graph theory to assess the impact of debris flows on the road network of southern Norway. Susceptibility and trigger probability are aggregated for individual road sections to form a reliability index that relates to the failure probability of a link that connects two network vertices, e.g., road junctions. We define link vulnerability as a function of traffic volume and additional link failure distance. Additional link failure distance is the extra length of the alternative path connecting the two associated link vertices in case the network link fails and is calculated by a shortest-path algorithm. The product of network reliability and vulnerability indices represent the risk index. High risk indices identify critical links for the Norwegian road network and are investigated in more detail. Scenarios demonstrating the impact of single or multiple debris flow events are run for the most important routes between seven large cities in southern Norway. First results show that the reliability of the road network is lowest in the central and north-western part of the study area. Road network vulnerability is highest in the mountainous regions in central southern Norway where the road density is low and in the vicinity of cities where the traffic volume is large. The scenarios indicate that city connections that have their shortest path via routes crossing the central part of the study area have the highest risk of route failure.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Social Network Analysis and Mining to Monitor and Identify Problems with Large-Scale Information and Communication Technology Interventions.

PubMed

da Silva, Aleksandra do Socorro; de Brito, Silvana Rossy; Vijaykumar, Nandamudi Lankalapalli; da Rocha, Cláudio Alex Jorge; Monteiro, Maurílio de Abreu; Costa, João Crisóstomo Weyl Albuquerque; Francês, Carlos Renato Lisboa

2016-01-01

The published literature reveals several arguments concerning the strategic importance of information and communication technology (ICT) interventions for developing countries where the digital divide is a challenge. Large-scale ICT interventions can be an option for countries whose regions, both urban and rural, present a high number of digitally excluded people. Our goal was to monitor and identify problems in interventions aimed at certification for a large number of participants in different geographical regions. Our case study is the training at the Telecentros.BR, a program created in Brazil to install telecenters and certify individuals to use ICT resources. We propose an approach that applies social network analysis and mining techniques to data collected from Telecentros.BR dataset and from the socioeconomics and telecommunications infrastructure indicators of the participants' municipalities. We found that (i) the analysis of interactions in different time periods reflects the objectives of each phase of training, highlighting the increased density in the phase in which participants develop and disseminate their projects; (ii) analysis according to the roles of participants (i.e., tutors or community members) reveals that the interactions were influenced by the center (or region) to which the participant belongs (that is, a community contained mainly members of the same region and always with the presence of tutors, contradicting expectations of the training project, which aimed for intense collaboration of the participants, regardless of the geographic region); (iii) the social network of participants influences the success of the training: that is, given evidence that the degree of the community member is in the highest range, the probability of this individual concluding the training is 0.689; (iv) the North region presented the lowest probability of participant certification, whereas the Northeast, which served municipalities with similar characteristics, presented high probability of certification, associated with the highest degree in social networking platform.

Increasing the proton conductivity of sulfonated polyether ether ketone by incorporating graphene oxide: Morphology effect on proton dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leong, Jun Xing; Diño, Wilson Agerico; Ahmad, Azizan; Daud, Wan Ramli Wan; Kasai, Hideaki

2018-03-01

We synthesized graphene oxide-sulfonated polyether ether ketone (GO-SPEEK) composite membrane and compare its proton conductivity with that of Nafion® 117 and SPEEK membranes. From experimental measurements, we found that GO-SPEEK has better proton conductivity (σGO-SPEEK = 3.8 × 10-2 S cm-1) when compared to Nafion® 117 (σNafion = 2.4 × 10-2 S cm-1) and SPEEK (σSPEEK = 2.9 × 10-3 S cm-1). From density functional theory (DFT-) based total energy calculations, we found that GO-SPEEK has the shortest proton diffusion distance among the three membranes, yielding the highest tunneling probability. Hence, GO-SPEEK exhibits the highest conductivity. The short proton diffusion distance in GO-SPEEK, as compared to Nafion® 117 and SPEEK, can be attributed to the presence of oxygenated functional groups of GO in the polymer matrix. This also explains why GO-SPEEK requires the lowest hydration level to reach its maximum conductivity. Moreover, we have successfully shown that the proton conductivity σ is related to the tunneling probability T, i.e., σ = σ‧ exp(-1/T). We conclude that the proton diffusion distance and hydration level are the two most significant factors that determine the membrane’s good conductivity. The distance between ionic sites of the membrane should be small to obtain good conductivity. With this short distance, lower hydration level is required. Thus, a membrane with short separation between the ionic sites can have enhanced conductivity, even at low hydration conditions.

Possible origin of photoconductivity in La0.7Ca0.3MnO3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagdeo, P. R.; Choudhary, R. J.; Phase, D. M.

2010-01-01

The effect of photon energy on the density of states near Fermi level of pulsed laser deposited La0.7Ca0.3MnO3 thin film has been studied to investigate the possible origin of change in the conductivity of these manganites upon photon exposure. For this purpose the photoelectron spectroscopy measurements were carried out using CSR beamline (BL-2) on Indus-1 synchrotron radiation source. The valance band spectra were measured at room temperature with photon energy ranging from 40 to 60 eV. We could see huge change in the density of states near Fermi level and this change is observed to be highest at 56 eV which is due to the resonance between Mn 3p to Mn 3d level. Our results suggest that the probability of electron transfer from deep Mn 3p level to Mn 3d-eg level is higher than that of Mn 3d-t2g level. It appears that this transfer of electron from deep Mn level to Mn 3d-eg level not only modifies the density of state near Fermi level but also changes the mobility of electrons by modifying the electron lattice coupling due to presence of Mn+3 Jahn-Teller ion.

Distribution of the planktonic shrimp Lucifer (Thompson, 1829) (Decapoda, Sergestoidea) off the Amazon.

PubMed

Melo, N F A C; Neumann-Leitão, S; Gusmão, L M O; Martins-Neto, F E; Palheta, G D A

2014-08-01

Lucifer faxoni (BORRADAILE, 1915) and L. typus (EDWARDS, 1837) are species first identified in the neritic and oceanic waters off the Amazon. Samplings were made aboard the vessel "Antares" at 22 stations in July and August, 2001 with a bongo net (500-µm mesh size). Hydrological data were taken simultaneously for comparative purposes. L. faxoni was present at thirteen of the fourteen neritic stations analysed, as well as at five of the eight oceanic stations. L. typus was present at three of the fourteen neritic stations and in one of the eight oceanic stations. The highest density of L. faxoni in the neritic province was 7,000 ind.m(-3) (St. 82) and 159 ind.m(-3) (St. 75) in the oceanic area. For L. typus, the highest density observed was 41 ind.m(-3) (St. 64) in the neritic province. In the oceanic province, the highest single density value was recorded at station 75 (5 ind.m(-3)). Overall, L. faxoni typically presented the highest densities.

DCMDN: Deep Convolutional Mixture Density Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Isanto, Antonio; Polsterer, Kai Lars

2017-09-01

Deep Convolutional Mixture Density Network (DCMDN) estimates probabilistic photometric redshift directly from multi-band imaging data by combining a version of a deep convolutional network with a mixture density network. The estimates are expressed as Gaussian mixture models representing the probability density functions (PDFs) in the redshift space. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the probability integral transform (PIT) are applied as performance criteria. DCMDN is able to predict redshift PDFs independently from the type of source, e.g. galaxies, quasars or stars and renders pre-classification of objects and feature extraction unnecessary; the method is extremely general and allows the solving of any kind of probabilistic regression problems based on imaging data, such as estimating metallicity or star formation rate in galaxies.

Rating competitors before tournament starts: How it's affecting team progression in a soccer tournament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Sulaiman, Tajularipin; Khalid, Ruzelan; Hamid, Mohamad Shukri Abdul; Mansor, Rosnalini

2014-12-01

In professional sporting events, rating competitors before tournament start is a well-known approach to distinguish the favorite team and the weaker teams. Various methodologies are used to rate competitors. In this paper, we explore four ways to rate competitors; least squares rating, maximum likelihood strength ratio, standing points in large round robin simulation and previous league rank position. The tournament metric we used to evaluate different types of rating approach is tournament outcome characteristics measure. The tournament outcome characteristics measure is defined by the probability that a particular team in the top 100q pre-tournament rank percentile progress beyond round R, for all q and R. Based on simulation result, we found that different rating approach produces different effect to the team. Our simulation result shows that from eight teams participate in knockout standard seeding, Perak has highest probability to win for tournament that use the least squares rating approach, PKNS has highest probability to win using the maximum likelihood strength ratio and the large round robin simulation approach, while Perak has the highest probability to win a tournament using previous league season approach.

Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

2011-01-01

In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

Coincidence probability as a measure of the average phase-space density at freeze-out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bialas, A.; Czyz, W.; Zalewski, K.

2006-02-01

It is pointed out that the average semi-inclusive particle phase-space density at freeze-out can be determined from the coincidence probability of the events observed in multiparticle production. The method of measurement is described and its accuracy examined.

Novel density-based and hierarchical density-based clustering algorithms for uncertain data.

PubMed

Zhang, Xianchao; Liu, Han; Zhang, Xiaotong

2017-09-01

Uncertain data has posed a great challenge to traditional clustering algorithms. Recently, several algorithms have been proposed for clustering uncertain data, and among them density-based techniques seem promising for handling data uncertainty. However, some issues like losing uncertain information, high time complexity and nonadaptive threshold have not been addressed well in the previous density-based algorithm FDBSCAN and hierarchical density-based algorithm FOPTICS. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel density-based algorithm PDBSCAN, which improves the previous FDBSCAN from the following aspects: (1) it employs a more accurate method to compute the probability that the distance between two uncertain objects is less than or equal to a boundary value, instead of the sampling-based method in FDBSCAN; (2) it introduces new definitions of probability neighborhood, support degree, core object probability, direct reachability probability, thus reducing the complexity and solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for core object judgement) in FDBSCAN. Then, we modify the algorithm PDBSCAN to an improved version (PDBSCANi), by using a better cluster assignment strategy to ensure that every object will be assigned to the most appropriate cluster, thus solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for direct density reachability judgement) in FDBSCAN. Furthermore, as PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi have difficulties for clustering uncertain data with non-uniform cluster density, we propose a novel hierarchical density-based algorithm POPTICS by extending the definitions of PDBSCAN, adding new definitions of fuzzy core distance and fuzzy reachability distance, and employing a new clustering framework. POPTICS can reveal the cluster structures of the datasets with different local densities in different regions better than PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi, and it addresses the issues in FOPTICS. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithms over the existing algorithms in accuracy and efficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum Jeffreys prior for displaced squeezed thermal states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwek, L. C.; Oh, C. H.; Wang, Xiang-Bin

1999-09-01

It is known that, by extending the equivalence of the Fisher information matrix to its quantum version, the Bures metric, the quantum Jeffreys prior can be determined from the volume element of the Bures metric. We compute the Bures metric for the displaced squeezed thermal state and analyse the quantum Jeffreys prior and its marginal probability distributions. To normalize the marginal probability density function, it is necessary to provide a range of values of the squeezing parameter or the inverse temperature. We find that if the range of the squeezing parameter is kept narrow, there are significant differences in the marginal probability density functions in terms of the squeezing parameters for the displaced and undisplaced situations. However, these differences disappear as the range increases. Furthermore, marginal probability density functions against temperature are very different in the two cases.

Identification of Stochastically Perturbed Autonomous Systems from Temporal Sequences of Probability Density Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Xiaokai; Luo, Jingjing; Coca, Daniel; Birkin, Mark; Chen, Jing

2018-03-01

The paper introduces a method for reconstructing one-dimensional iterated maps that are driven by an external control input and subjected to an additive stochastic perturbation, from sequences of probability density functions that are generated by the stochastic dynamical systems and observed experimentally.

Digital simulation of two-dimensional random fields with arbitrary power spectra and non-Gaussian probability distribution functions.

PubMed

Yura, Harold T; Hanson, Steen G

2012-04-01

Methods for simulation of two-dimensional signals with arbitrary power spectral densities and signal amplitude probability density functions are disclosed. The method relies on initially transforming a white noise sample set of random Gaussian distributed numbers into a corresponding set with the desired spectral distribution, after which this colored Gaussian probability distribution is transformed via an inverse transform into the desired probability distribution. In most cases the method provides satisfactory results and can thus be considered an engineering approach. Several illustrative examples with relevance for optics are given.

A Modeling and Data Analysis of Laser Beam Propagation in the Maritime Domain

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-18

approach to computing pdfs is the Kernel Density Method (Reference [9] has an intro - duction to the method), which we will apply to compute the pdf of our...The project has two parts to it: 1) we present a computational analysis of different probability density function approximation techniques; and 2) we... computational analysis of different probability density function approximation techniques; and 2) we introduce preliminary steps towards developing a

Understanding star formation in molecular clouds. II. Signatures of gravitational collapse of IRDCs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, N.; Csengeri, T.; Klessen, R. S.; Tremblin, P.; Ossenkopf, V.; Peretto, N.; Simon, R.; Bontemps, S.; Federrath, C.

2015-06-01

We analyse column density and temperature maps derived from Herschel dust continuum observations of a sample of prominent, massive infrared dark clouds (IRDCs) i.e. G11.11-0.12, G18.82-0.28, G28.37+0.07, and G28.53-0.25. We disentangle the velocity structure of the clouds using 13CO 1→0 and 12CO 3→2 data, showing that these IRDCs are the densest regions in massive giant molecular clouds (GMCs) and not isolated features. The probability distribution function (PDF) of column densities for all clouds have a power-law distribution over all (high) column densities, regardless of the evolutionary stage of the cloud: G11.11-0.12, G18.82-0.28, and G28.37+0.07 contain (proto)-stars, while G28.53-0.25 shows no signs of star formation. This is in contrast to the purely log-normal PDFs reported for near and/or mid-IR extinction maps. We only find a log-normal distribution for lower column densities, if we perform PDFs of the column density maps of the whole GMC in which the IRDCs are embedded. By comparing the PDF slope and the radial column density profile of three of our clouds, we attribute the power law to the effect of large-scale gravitational collapse and to local free-fall collapse of pre- and protostellar cores for the highest column densities. A significant impact on the cloud properties from radiative feedback is unlikely because the clouds are mostly devoid of star formation. Independent from the PDF analysis, we find infall signatures in the spectral profiles of 12CO for G28.37+0.07 and G11.11-0.12, supporting the scenario of gravitational collapse. Our results are in line with earlier interpretations that see massive IRDCs as the densest regions within GMCs, which may be the progenitors of massive stars or clusters. At least some of the IRDCs are probably the same features as ridges (high column density regions with N> 1023 cm-2 over small areas), which were defined for nearby IR-bright GMCs. Because IRDCs are only confined to the densest (gravity dominated) cloud regions, the PDF constructed from this kind of a clipped image does not represent the (turbulence dominated) low column density regime of the cloud. The column density maps (FITS files) are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/578/A29

Probability density and exceedance rate functions of locally Gaussian turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mark, W. D.

1989-01-01

A locally Gaussian model of turbulence velocities is postulated which consists of the superposition of a slowly varying strictly Gaussian component representing slow temporal changes in the mean wind speed and a more rapidly varying locally Gaussian turbulence component possessing a temporally fluctuating local variance. Series expansions of the probability density and exceedance rate functions of the turbulence velocity model, based on Taylor's series, are derived. Comparisons of the resulting two-term approximations with measured probability density and exceedance rate functions of atmospheric turbulence velocity records show encouraging agreement, thereby confirming the consistency of the measured records with the locally Gaussian model. Explicit formulas are derived for computing all required expansion coefficients from measured turbulence records.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerber, L.R.; McCallum, H.; Lafferty, K.D.; Sabo, J.L.; Dobson, A.

2005-01-01

In the United States and several other countries, the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to model disease explicitly. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Response of benthic invertebrate assemblages to metal exposure and bioaccumulation associated with hard-rock mining in northwestern streams, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maret, T.R.; Cain, D.J.; MacCoy, D.E.; Short, T.M.

2003-01-01

Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages, environmental variables, and associated mine density were evaluated during the summer of 2000 at 18 reference and test sites in the Coeur d'Alene and St. Regis River basins, northwestern USA as part of the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn in water and (or) streambed sediment at test sites in basins where production mine density was ???0.2 mines/km2 (in a 500-m stream buffer) were significantly higher than concentrations at reference sites. Zn and Pb were identified as the primary contaminants in water and streambed sediment, respectively. These metal concentrations often exceeded acute Ambient Water Quality Criteria for aquatic life and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Probable Effect Level for streambed sediment. Regression analysis identified significant correlations between production mine density in each basin and Zn concentrations in water and Pb in streambed sediment (r2 = 0.69 and 0.65, p < 0.01). Metal concentrations in caddisfly tissue, used to verify site-specific exposures of benthos, also were highest at sites downstream from intensive mining. Benthic invertebrate taxa richness and densities were lower at sites downstream than upstream of areas of intensive hard-rock mining and associated metal enrichment. Benthic invertebrate metrics that were most effective in discriminating changes in assemblage structure between reference and mining sites were total number of taxa, number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa, and densities of total individuals, EPT individuals, and metal-sensitive Ephemeroptera individuals.

Sampling characteristics and calibration of snorkel counts to estimate stream fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, D.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Pollock, Kenneth

2014-01-01

Snorkeling is a versatile technique for estimating lotic fish population characteristics; however, few investigators have evaluated its accuracy at population or assemblage levels. We evaluated the accuracy of snorkeling using prepositioned areal electrofishing (PAE) for estimating fish populations in a medium-sized Appalachian Mountain river during fall 2008 and summer 2009. Strip-transect snorkel counts were calibrated with PAE counts in identical locations among macrohabitats, fish species or taxa, and seasons. Mean snorkeling efficiency (i.e., the proportion of individuals counted from the true population) among all taxa and seasons was 14.7% (SE, 2.5%), and the highest efficiencies were for River Chub Nocomis micropogon at 21.1% (SE, 5.9%), Central Stoneroller Campostoma anomalum at 20.3% (SE, 9.6%), and darters (Percidae) at 17.1% (SE, 3.7%), whereas efficiencies were lower for shiners (Notropis spp., Cyprinella spp., Luxilus spp.) at 8.2% (SE, 2.2%) and suckers (Catostomidae) at 6.6% (SE, 3.2%). Macrohabitat type, fish taxon, or sampling season did not significantly explain variance in snorkeling efficiency. Mean snorkeling detection probability (i.e., probability of detecting at least one individual of a taxon) among fish taxa and seasons was 58.4% (SE, 6.1%). We applied the efficiencies from our calibration study to adjust snorkel counts from an intensive snorkeling survey conducted in a nearby reach. Total fish density estimates from strip-transect counts adjusted for snorkeling efficiency were 7,288 fish/ha (SE, 1,564) during summer and 15,805 fish/ha (SE, 4,947) during fall. Precision of fish density estimates is influenced by variation in snorkeling efficiency and sample size and may be increased with additional sampling effort. These results demonstrate the sampling properties and utility of snorkeling to characterize lotic fish assemblages with acceptable efficiency and detection probability, less effort, and no mortality, compared with traditional sampling methods.

Comparing scat detection dogs, cameras, and hair snares for surveying carnivores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Robert A.; Donovan, T.M.; MacKay, Paula; Zielinski, William J.; Buzas, Jeffrey S.

2007-01-01

Carnivores typically require large areas of habitat, exist at low natural densities, and exhibit elusive behavior - characteristics that render them difficult to study. Noninvasive survey methods increasingly provide means to collect extensive data on carnivore occupancy, distribution, and abundance. During the summers of 2003-2004, we compared the abilities of scat detection dogs, remote cameras, and hair snares to detect black bears (Ursus americanus), fishers (Martes pennanti), and bobcats (Lynx rufus) at 168 sites throughout Vermont. All 3 methods detected black bears; neither fishers nor bobcats were detected by hair snares. Scat detection dogs yielded the highest raw detection rate and probability of detection (given presence) for each of the target species, as well as the greatest number of unique detections (i.e., occasions when only one method detected the target species). We estimated that the mean probability of detecting the target species during a single visit to a site with a detection dog was 0.87 for black bears, 0.84 for fishers, and 0.27 for bobcats. Although the cost of surveying with detection dogs was higher than that of remote cameras or hair snares, the efficiency of this method rendered it the most cost-effective survey method.

Fabrication of CoFe2O4 ferrite nanowire arrays in porous silicon template and their local magnetic properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Zheng; Man-Gui, Han; Long-Jiang, Deng

2016-02-01

CoFe2O4 ferrite nanowire arrays are fabricated in porous silicon templates. The porous silicon templates are prepared via metal-assisted chemical etching with gold (Au) nanoparticles as the catalyst. Subsequently, CoFe2O4 ferrite nanowires are successfully synthesized into porous silicon templates by the sol-gel method. The magnetic hysteresis loop of nanowire array shows an isotropic feature of magnetic properties. The coercivity and squareness ratio (Mr/Ms) of ensemble nanowires are found to be 630 Oe (1 Oe, = 79.5775 A·m-1 and 0.4 respectively. However, the first-order reversal curve (FORC) is adopted to reveal the probability density function of local magnetostatic properties (i.e., interwire interaction field and coercivity). The FORC diagram shows an obvious distribution feature for interaction field and coercivity. The local coercivity with a value of about 1000 Oe is found to have the highest probability. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61271039), the Scientific Projects of Sichuan Province, China (Grant No. 2015HH0016), and the Natural Science Foundations of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant Nos. LQ12E02001 and Y107255).

Optimal Control via Self-Generated Stochasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2011-01-01

The problem of global maxima of functionals has been examined. Mathematical roots of local maxima are the same as those for a much simpler problem of finding global maximum of a multi-dimensional function. The second problem is instability even if an optimal trajectory is found, there is no guarantee that it is stable. As a result, a fundamentally new approach is introduced to optimal control based upon two new ideas. The first idea is to represent the functional to be maximized as a limit of a probability density governed by the appropriately selected Liouville equation. Then, the corresponding ordinary differential equations (ODEs) become stochastic, and that sample of the solution that has the largest value will have the highest probability to appear in ODE simulation. The main advantages of the stochastic approach are that it is not sensitive to local maxima, the function to be maximized must be only integrable but not necessarily differentiable, and global equality and inequality constraints do not cause any significant obstacles. The second idea is to remove possible instability of the optimal solution by equipping the control system with a self-stabilizing device. The applications of the proposed methodology will optimize the performance of NASA spacecraft, as well as robot performance.

Stochastic model of transcription factor-regulated gene expression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmakar, Rajesh; Bose, Indrani

2006-09-01

We consider a stochastic model of transcription factor (TF)-regulated gene expression. The model describes two genes, gene A and gene B, which synthesize the TFs and the target gene proteins, respectively. We show through analytic calculations that the TF fluctuations have a significant effect on the distribution of the target gene protein levels when the mean TF level falls in the highest sensitive region of the dose-response curve. We further study the effect of reducing the copy number of gene A from two to one. The enhanced TF fluctuations yield results different from those in the deterministic case. The probability that the target gene protein level exceeds a threshold value is calculated with the knowledge of the probability density functions associated with the TF and target gene protein levels. Numerical simulation results for a more detailed stochastic model are shown to be in agreement with those obtained through analytic calculations. The relevance of these results in the context of the genetic disorder haploinsufficiency is pointed out. Some experimental observations on the haploinsufficiency of the tumour suppressor gene, Nkx 3.1, are explained with the help of the stochastic model of TF-regulated gene expression.

Stacking dependence of carrier transport properties in multilayered black phosphorous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sengupta, A.; Audiffred, M.; Heine, T.; Niehaus, T. A.

2016-02-01

We present the effect of different stacking orders on carrier transport properties of multi-layer black phosphorous. We consider three different stacking orders AAA, ABA and ACA, with increasing number of layers (from 2 to 6 layers). We employ a hierarchical approach in density functional theory (DFT), with structural simulations performed with generalized gradient approximation (GGA) and the bandstructure, carrier effective masses and optical properties evaluated with the meta-generalized gradient approximation (MGGA). The carrier transmission in the various black phosphorous sheets was carried out with the non-equilibrium green’s function (NEGF) approach. The results show that ACA stacking has the highest electron and hole transmission probabilities. The results show tunability for a wide range of band-gaps, carrier effective masses and transmission with a great promise for lattice engineering (stacking order and layers) in black phosphorous.

Plant density-dependent variations in bioactive markers and root yield in Australian-grown Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge.

PubMed

Li, Chun Guang; Sheng, Shu Jun; Pang, Edwin C K; May, Brian; Xue, Charlie Chang Li

2011-04-01

The plant density-dependent variations in the root yield and content, and the yield of biomarkers in Australian grown Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge, a commonly used Chinese medicinal herb for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, were investigated in a field trial involving six different plant densities. The key biomarker compounds cryptotanshinone, tanshinone I, tanshinone IIA, and salvianolic acid B were quantified by a validated RP-HPLC method, and the root yields were determined per plant pair or unit area. There were significant variations (p<0.05) in the root yields and contents and the yields of the biomarkers between the different plant densities. Positive linear correlations were observed between the contents of the three tanshinones, whereas negative linear correlations were revealed between the contents of the tanshinones and salvianolic acid B. The highest root yield per plant pair was achieved when the plants were grown at 45×30 cm or 45×40 cm, whereas the highest root production par unit area was obtained for a plant density of 30×30 cm. The highest contents of the three tanshinones and the most abundant production of these tanshinones per unit area were achieved when the plants were grown at 30×30 cm. However, the highest content of salvianolic acid B was found for a density of 45×40 cm, while its highest yield per unit area was obtained for densities of 30×40 cm or 45×30 cm. The findings suggest that the plant density distinctly affects the root yield and content and the yield of tanshinones and salvianolic acid B in Australian grown S. miltiorrhiza, which may be used as a guide for developing optimal agricultural procedures for cultivating this herb. Copyright © 2011 Verlag Helvetica Chimica Acta AG, Zürich.

A Tomographic Method for the Reconstruction of Local Probability Density Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivathanu, Y. R.; Gore, J. P.

1993-01-01

A method of obtaining the probability density function (PDF) of local properties from path integrated measurements is described. The approach uses a discrete probability function (DPF) method to infer the PDF of the local extinction coefficient from measurements of the PDFs of the path integrated transmittance. The local PDFs obtained using the method are compared with those obtained from direct intrusive measurements in propylene/air and ethylene/air diffusion flames. The results of this comparison are good.

BMI, hypertension and low bone mineral density in adult men and women.

PubMed

Szklarska, Alicja; Lipowicz, Anna

2012-08-01

The aim of this work was to estimate the body mass index (BMI) at which risk of hypertension is lowest in men and women, while concurrently considering the protective role of adipose tissue in osteoporosis. Healthy, occupationally active inhabitants of the city of Wrocław, Poland, 1218 women and 434 men were studied. BMI, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, bone mineral density (BMD) of the trabecular compartment and distal radius of the non-dominant hand were recorded. Overweight in young women (≤45 years) was associated with increased risk of hypertension, whereas the risk of low bone mineral was decreased for the same BMI. In older women (>45 years), a BMI>27 was the threshold for increased risk of hypertension. In this age group, extremely slim women (BMI<21) had the highest risk of low bone mineral density. In younger males (≤45 years), risk of hypertension was lowest among the thinnest subjects (BMI<21). Increase in BMI over 21 kg/m(2) increased the risk of hypertension. The probability of low bone mineral density was the same in all BMI categories of men. In older men (>45 years), the thinnest (BMI<21) had higher risk of hypertension. To begin from BMI=25 kg/m(2), there was a monotonous increase in risk of hypertension in men. Higher risk for low bone mineral density was observed in older men with the BMI<23. Among younger adults, risk of hypertension and low bone mineral density increase at BMI≥21 kg/m(2) in men and BMI≥23 kg/m(2) in women. Among older men and women, the BMI threshold was 27 kg/m(2). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The chronology of reindeer hunting on Norway's highest ice patches

PubMed Central

Pilø, Lars; Finstad, Espen; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Martinsen, Julian Robert Post; Nesje, Atle; Solli, Brit; Wangen, Vivian; Callanan, Martin

2018-01-01

The melting of perennial ice patches globally is uncovering a fragile record of alpine activity, especially hunting and the use of mountain passes. When rescued by systematic fieldwork (glacial archaeology), this evidence opens an unprecedented window on the chronology of high-elevation activity. Recent research in Jotunheimen and surrounding mountain areas of Norway has recovered over 2000 finds—many associated with reindeer hunting (e.g. arrows). We report the radiocarbon dates of 153 objects and use a kernel density estimation (KDE) method to determine the distribution of dated events from ca 4000 BCE to the present. Interpreted in light of shifting environmental, preservation and socio-economic factors, these new data show counterintuitive trends in the intensity of reindeer hunting and other high-elevation activity. Cold temperatures may sometimes have kept humans from Norway's highest elevations, as expected based on accessibility, exposure and reindeer distributions. In times of increasing demand for mountain resources, however, activity probably continued in the face of adverse or variable climatic conditions. The use of KDE modelling makes it possible to observe this patterning without the spurious effects of noise introduced by the discrete nature of the finds and the radiocarbon calibration process. PMID:29410869

Continuous-time random-walk model for financial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume; Montero, Miquel; Weiss, George H.

2003-02-01

We apply the formalism of the continuous-time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time between successive jumps and the corresponding probability density for the magnitude of a jump. We have applied the formalism to data on the U.S. dollar deutsche mark future exchange, finding good agreement between theory and the observed data.

The Independent Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighbourhood Density on Lexical Acquisition by Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Storkel, Holly L.; Lee, Su-Yeon

2011-01-01

The goal of this research was to disentangle effects of phonotactic probability, the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence, and neighbourhood density, the number of phonologically similar words, in lexical acquisition. Two-word learning experiments were conducted with 4-year-old children. Experiment 1 manipulated phonotactic probability…

Influence of Phonotactic Probability/Neighbourhood Density on Lexical Learning in Late Talkers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Schwartz, Richard G.; Shafer, Valerie L.; Marton, Klara

2013-01-01

Background: Toddlers who are late talkers demonstrate delays in phonological and lexical skills. However, the influence of phonological factors on lexical acquisition in toddlers who are late talkers has not been examined directly. Aims: To examine the influence of phonotactic probability/neighbourhood density on word learning in toddlers who were…

Monte Carlo method for computing density of states and quench probability of potential energy and enthalpy landscapes.

PubMed

Mauro, John C; Loucks, Roger J; Balakrishnan, Jitendra; Raghavan, Srikanth

2007-05-21

The thermodynamics and kinetics of a many-body system can be described in terms of a potential energy landscape in multidimensional configuration space. The partition function of such a landscape can be written in terms of a density of states, which can be computed using a variety of Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper, a new self-consistent Monte Carlo method for computing density of states is described that uses importance sampling and a multiplicative update factor to achieve rapid convergence. The technique is then applied to compute the equilibrium quench probability of the various inherent structures (minima) in the landscape. The quench probability depends on both the potential energy of the inherent structure and the volume of its corresponding basin in configuration space. Finally, the methodology is extended to the isothermal-isobaric ensemble in order to compute inherent structure quench probabilities in an enthalpy landscape.

Understanding environmental DNA detection probabilities: A case study using a stream-dwelling char Salvelinus fontinalis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilcox, Taylor M; Mckelvey, Kevin S.; Young, Michael K.; Sepulveda, Adam; Shepard, Bradley B.; Jane, Stephen F; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA sampling (eDNA) has emerged as a powerful tool for detecting aquatic animals. Previous research suggests that eDNA methods are substantially more sensitive than traditional sampling. However, the factors influencing eDNA detection and the resulting sampling costs are still not well understood. Here we use multiple experiments to derive independent estimates of eDNA production rates and downstream persistence from brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in streams. We use these estimates to parameterize models comparing the false negative detection rates of eDNA sampling and traditional backpack electrofishing. We find that using the protocols in this study eDNA had reasonable detection probabilities at extremely low animal densities (e.g., probability of detection 0.18 at densities of one fish per stream kilometer) and very high detection probabilities at population-level densities (e.g., probability of detection > 0.99 at densities of ≥ 3 fish per 100 m). This is substantially more sensitive than traditional electrofishing for determining the presence of brook trout and may translate into important cost savings when animals are rare. Our findings are consistent with a growing body of literature showing that eDNA sampling is a powerful tool for the detection of aquatic species, particularly those that are rare and difficult to sample using traditional methods.

Influence of distributed delays on the dynamics of a generalized immune system cancerous cells interactions model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotrowska, M. J.; Bodnar, M.

2018-01-01

We present a generalisation of the mathematical models describing the interactions between the immune system and tumour cells which takes into account distributed time delays. For the analytical study we do not assume any particular form of the stimulus function describing the immune system reaction to presence of tumour cells but we only postulate its general properties. We analyse basic mathematical properties of the considered model such as existence and uniqueness of the solutions. Next, we discuss the existence of the stationary solutions and analytically investigate their stability depending on the forms of considered probability densities that is: Erlang, triangular and uniform probability densities separated or not from zero. Particular instability results are obtained for a general type of probability densities. Our results are compared with those for the model with discrete delays know from the literature. In addition, for each considered type of probability density, the model is fitted to the experimental data for the mice B-cell lymphoma showing mean square errors at the same comparable level. For estimated sets of parameters we discuss possibility of stabilisation of the tumour dormant steady state. Instability of this steady state results in uncontrolled tumour growth. In order to perform numerical simulation, following the idea of linear chain trick, we derive numerical procedures that allow us to solve systems with considered probability densities using standard algorithm for ordinary differential equations or differential equations with discrete delays.

MRI Brain Tumor Segmentation and Necrosis Detection Using Adaptive Sobolev Snakes.

PubMed

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-21

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at different points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D diffusion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

MRI brain tumor segmentation and necrosis detection using adaptive Sobolev snakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-01

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at di erent points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D di usion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

Competition between harvester ants and rodents in the cold desert

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landeen, D.S.; Jorgensen, C.D.; Smith, H.D.

1979-09-30

Local distribution patterns of three rodent species (Perognathus parvus, Peromyscus maniculatus, Reithrodontomys megalotis) were studied in areas of high and low densities of harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex owyheei) in Raft River Valley, Idaho. Numbers of rodents were greatest in areas of high ant-density during May, but partially reduced in August; whereas, the trend was reversed in areas of low ant-density. Seed abundance was probably not the factor limiting changes in rodent populations, because seed densities of annual plants were always greater in areas of high ant-density. Differences in seasonal population distributions of rodents between areas of high and low ant-densities weremore » probably due to interactions of seed availability, rodent energetics, and predation.« less

Spatial vent opening probability map of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Cappello, Annalisa; Galindo, Inés; Neri, Marco; Del Negro, Ciro

2013-04-01

The assessment of the probable spatial distribution of new eruptions is useful to manage and reduce the volcanic risk. It can be achieved in different ways, but it becomes especially hard when dealing with volcanic areas less studied, poorly monitored and characterized by a low frequent activity, as El Hierro. Even though it is the youngest of the Canary Islands, before the 2011 eruption in the "Las Calmas Sea", El Hierro had been the least studied volcanic Island of the Canaries, with more historically devoted attention to La Palma, Tenerife and Lanzarote. We propose a probabilistic method to build the susceptibility map of El Hierro, i.e. the spatial distribution of vent opening for future eruptions, based on the mathematical analysis of the volcano-structural data collected mostly on the Island and, secondly, on the submerged part of the volcano, up to a distance of ~10-20 km from the coast. The volcano-structural data were collected through new fieldwork measurements, bathymetric information, and analysis of geological maps, orthophotos and aerial photographs. They have been divided in different datasets and converted into separate and weighted probability density functions, which were then included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to produce the volcanic susceptibility map. Future eruptive events on El Hierro is mainly concentrated on the rifts zones, extending also beyond the shoreline. The major probabilities to host new eruptions are located on the distal parts of the South and West rifts, with the highest probability reached in the south-western area of the West rift. High probabilities are also observed in the Northeast and South rifts, and the submarine parts of the rifts. This map represents the first effort to deal with the volcanic hazard at El Hierro and can be a support tool for decision makers in land planning, emergency plans and civil defence actions.

Vertical distribution of three namatode species in relation to certain soil properties.

PubMed

Brodie, B B

1976-07-01

Population densities of Belonolaimus longicaudatus, Pratylenchus brachyurus, and Trichodorus christiei were determined from soil samples taken weekly in Tifton, Georgia during a 14-month period (except for April and May) at 15-cm increments to a depth of 105 cm. Belonolaimus longicaudatus predominately inhabited the top 30 cm of soil that was 87-88% sand, 6-7% silt, and 5-7% clay. No specimens were found below 60 cm where the soil was 76-79% sand, 5-6% silt, and 15-19% clay. Highest population densities occurred during June through September when temperature in the top 30 cm of soil was 22-25 C and soil moisture was from 9 to 20% by volume. Pratylenchus brachyurus was found at all depths, but population densities were greatest 45-75 cm deep where the soil was 78-79% sand, 6% silt, and 15-16% clay. In the months monitored, highest population densities occurred during March, June, and December when the soil temperature 45-75 cm deep was 14-17 C and soil moisture was 22-42%. Trichodorus christiei was found at all depths, but population densities were highest 30 cm deep where the soil was 83% sand, 5% silt, and 12% clay. Highest population densities occurred during December through March when the soil temperature 30 cm deep was 11-17 C and soil moisture was 18-23%.

A Study of Stranding of Juvenile Salmon by Ship Wakes Along the Lower Columbia River Using a Before-and-After Design: Before-Phase Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pearson, Walter H.; Skalski, J R.; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.

2006-02-01

Ship wakes produced by deep-draft vessels transiting the lower Columbia River have been observed to cause stranding of juvenile salmon. Proposed deepening of the Columbia River navigation channel has raised concerns about the potential impact of the deepening project on juvenile salmon stranding. The Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers requested that the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory design and conduct a study to assess stranding impacts that may be associated with channel deepening. The basic study design was a multivariate analysis of covariance of field observations and measurements under a statistical design for a before and aftermore » impact comparison. We have summarized field activities and statistical analyses for the ?before? component of the study here. Stranding occurred at all three sampling sites and during all three sampling seasons (Summer 2004, Winter 2005, and Spring 2005), for a total of 46 stranding events during 126 observed vessel passages. The highest occurrence of stranding occurred at Barlow Point, WA, where 53% of the observed events resulted in stranding. Other sites included Sauvie Island, OR (37%) and County Line Park, WA (15%). To develop an appropriate impact assessment model that accounted for relevant covariates, regression analyses were conducted to determine the relationships between stranding probability and other factors. Nineteen independent variables were considered as potential factors affecting the incidence of juvenile salmon stranding, including tidal stage, tidal height, river flow, current velocity, ship type, ship direction, ship condition (loaded/unloaded), ship speed, ship size, and a proxy variable for ship kinetic energy. In addition to the ambient and ship characteristics listed above, site, season, and fish density were also considered. Although no single factor appears as the primary factor for stranding, statistical analyses of the covariates resulted in the following equations: (1) Stranding Probability {approx} Location + Kinetic Energy Proxy + Tidal Height + Salmonid Density + Kinetic energy proxy ? Tidal Height + Tidal Height x Salmonid Density. (2) Stranding Probability {approx} Location + Total Wave Distance + Salmonid Density Index. (3) Log(Total Wave Height) {approx} Ship Block + Tidal Height + Location + Ship Speed. (4) Log(Total Wave Excursion Across the Beach) {approx} Location + Kinetic Energy Proxy + Tidal Height The above equations form the basis for a conceptual model of the factors leading to salmon stranding. The equations also form the basis for an approach for assessing impacts of dredging under the before/after study design.« less

High Performance and Economic Supercapacitors for Energy Storage Based on Carbon Nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuilov, Vladimir; Farshid, Behzad; Frenkel, Alexander; Sensor CAT at Stony Brook Team

2015-03-01

We designed and manufactured very inexpensive prototypes of supercapacitors for energy storage based on carbon nanomaterials comprised of: reduced graphene oxide (RGOs) and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) as electrodes filled with polymer gel electrolytes. The electrochemical properties of supercapacitors made using these materials were compared and analyzed. A significant tradeoff between the energy density and the power density was determined; RGO electrodes demonstrated the highest energy density, while composite RGO/CNT electrodes showed the highest power density. The thickness of the RGO electrode was varied to determine its effect on the power density of the supercapacitor and results showed that with decreasing electrode thickness power density would increase. The specific capacitances of over 600 F/g were observed.

Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

DOE PAGES

Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.; ...

2017-08-25

Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keiter, David A.; Davis, Amy J.; Rhodes, Olin E.

Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. For this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movementmore » had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density.« less

Redundancy and reduction: Speakers manage syntactic information density

PubMed Central

Florian Jaeger, T.

2010-01-01

A principle of efficient language production based on information theoretic considerations is proposed: Uniform Information Density predicts that language production is affected by a preference to distribute information uniformly across the linguistic signal. This prediction is tested against data from syntactic reduction. A single multilevel logit model analysis of naturally distributed data from a corpus of spontaneous speech is used to assess the effect of information density on complementizer that-mentioning, while simultaneously evaluating the predictions of several influential alternative accounts: availability, ambiguity avoidance, and dependency processing accounts. Information density emerges as an important predictor of speakers’ preferences during production. As information is defined in terms of probabilities, it follows that production is probability-sensitive, in that speakers’ preferences are affected by the contextual probability of syntactic structures. The merits of a corpus-based approach to the study of language production are discussed as well. PMID:20434141

The difference between two random mixed quantum states: exact and asymptotic spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía, José; Zapata, Camilo; Botero, Alonso

2017-01-01

We investigate the spectral statistics of the difference of two density matrices, each of which is independently obtained by partially tracing a random bipartite pure quantum state. We first show how a closed-form expression for the exact joint eigenvalue probability density function for arbitrary dimensions can be obtained from the joint probability density function of the diagonal elements of the difference matrix, which is straightforward to compute. Subsequently, we use standard results from free probability theory to derive a relatively simple analytic expression for the asymptotic eigenvalue density (AED) of the difference matrix ensemble, and using Carlson’s theorem, we obtain an expression for its absolute moments. These results allow us to quantify the typical asymptotic distance between the two random mixed states using various distance measures; in particular, we obtain the almost sure asymptotic behavior of the operator norm distance and the trace distance.

Habitat suitability criteria via parametric distributions: estimation, model selection and uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Som, Nicholas A.; Goodman, Damon H.; Perry, Russell W.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2016-01-01

Previous methods for constructing univariate habitat suitability criteria (HSC) curves have ranged from professional judgement to kernel-smoothed density functions or combinations thereof. We present a new method of generating HSC curves that applies probability density functions as the mathematical representation of the curves. Compared with previous approaches, benefits of our method include (1) estimation of probability density function parameters directly from raw data, (2) quantitative methods for selecting among several candidate probability density functions, and (3) concise methods for expressing estimation uncertainty in the HSC curves. We demonstrate our method with a thorough example using data collected on the depth of water used by juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) in the Klamath River of northern California and southern Oregon. All R code needed to implement our example is provided in the appendix. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Measurement of In Vivo Three-Dimensional Corneal Cell Density and Size Using Two-Photon Imaging in C57BL/6 Mice.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongmin; He, Siyu; Liu, Susu; Xie, Yanting; Chen, Guoming; Zhang, Junjie; Sun, Shengtao; Liang, David; Wang, Liya

2016-04-01

To measure the cell size and cell density in five layers of the central cornea in the widely used inbred C57BL/6 mouse strain using in vivo three-dimensional (3D) two-photon (2PH) imaging. Corneas were scanned using a 2PH laser scanning fluorescence microscope after staining with plasma membrane stain and Hoechst 33342. Good quality 3D images were selected for the cell density and cell size analysis. Cell density was determined by counting the cell nuclei in a predefined cube of 3D images. Cell size measurements, including cell surface area, cell volume, nuclear surface area and nuclear volume, were automatically quantified using the Imaris software. The cell and nuclear surface-area-to-volume ratio (S:V ratio) and the cell nuclear-cytoplasmic ratio (N:C ratio) were calculated. The highest cell density was observed in the basal epithelium and the lowest in the posterior stroma. The highest cell surface area was found in the anterior stroma, and the highest cell volume was observed in the superficial epithelium. The lowest cell surface area and cell volume were both found in the basal epithelium. The highest S:V ratio was observed in the basal epithelium and the lowest in the superficial epithelium. The highest cell nuclear surface area and volume were both observed in the superficial epithelium and the lowest in the basal epithelium. The highest cell nuclear S:V ratio was observed in the basal epithelium and the lowest in the superficial epithelium. The highest N:C ratio was found in the basal epithelial cells and the lowest in the posterior keratocytes. We are the first to quantify the cell density and size parameters, including cell surface area and volume, cell nuclear surface area and volume, and the S:V ratio, in the five layers of the central cornea. These data provide important cell morphology features for the study of corneal physiology, pathology and disease in mice, particularly in C57BL/6 mice.

Neighbor-Dependent Ramachandran Probability Distributions of Amino Acids Developed from a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Model

PubMed Central

Mitra, Rajib; Jordan, Michael I.; Dunbrack, Roland L.

2010-01-01

Distributions of the backbone dihedral angles of proteins have been studied for over 40 years. While many statistical analyses have been presented, only a handful of probability densities are publicly available for use in structure validation and structure prediction methods. The available distributions differ in a number of important ways, which determine their usefulness for various purposes. These include: 1) input data size and criteria for structure inclusion (resolution, R-factor, etc.); 2) filtering of suspect conformations and outliers using B-factors or other features; 3) secondary structure of input data (e.g., whether helix and sheet are included; whether beta turns are included); 4) the method used for determining probability densities ranging from simple histograms to modern nonparametric density estimation; and 5) whether they include nearest neighbor effects on the distribution of conformations in different regions of the Ramachandran map. In this work, Ramachandran probability distributions are presented for residues in protein loops from a high-resolution data set with filtering based on calculated electron densities. Distributions for all 20 amino acids (with cis and trans proline treated separately) have been determined, as well as 420 left-neighbor and 420 right-neighbor dependent distributions. The neighbor-independent and neighbor-dependent probability densities have been accurately estimated using Bayesian nonparametric statistical analysis based on the Dirichlet process. In particular, we used hierarchical Dirichlet process priors, which allow sharing of information between densities for a particular residue type and different neighbor residue types. The resulting distributions are tested in a loop modeling benchmark with the program Rosetta, and are shown to improve protein loop conformation prediction significantly. The distributions are available at http://dunbrack.fccc.edu/hdp. PMID:20442867

Nest trampling and ground nesting birds: Quantifying temporal and spatial overlap between cattle activity and breeding redshank.

PubMed

Sharps, Elwyn; Smart, Jennifer; Mason, Lucy R; Jones, Kate; Skov, Martin W; Garbutt, Angus; Hiddink, Jan G

2017-08-01

Conservation grazing for breeding birds needs to balance the positive effects on vegetation structure and negative effects of nest trampling. In the UK, populations of Common redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarshes declined by >50% between 1985 and 2011. These declines have been linked to changes in grazing management. The highest breeding densities of redshank on saltmarshes are found in lightly grazed areas. Conservation initiatives have encouraged low-intensity grazing at <1 cattle/ha, but even these levels of grazing can result in high levels of nest trampling. If livestock distribution is not spatially or temporally homogenous but concentrated where and when redshank breed, rates of nest trampling may be much higher than expected based on livestock density alone. By GPS tracking cattle on saltmarshes and monitoring trampling of dummy nests, this study quantified (i) the spatial and temporal distribution of cattle in relation to the distribution of redshank nesting habitats and (ii) trampling rates of dummy nests. The distribution of livestock was highly variable depending on both time in the season and the saltmarsh under study, with cattle using between 3% and 42% of the saltmarsh extent and spending most their time on higher elevation habitat within 500 m of the sea wall, but moving further onto the saltmarsh as the season progressed. Breeding redshank also nest on these higher elevation zones, and this breeding coincides with the early period of grazing. Probability of nest trampling was correlated to livestock density and was up to six times higher in the areas where redshank breed. This overlap in both space and time of the habitat use of cattle and redshank means that the trampling probability of a nest can be much higher than would be expected based on standard measures of cattle density. Synthesis and applications : Because saltmarsh grazing is required to maintain a favorable vegetation structure for redshank breeding, grazing management should aim to keep livestock away from redshank nesting habitat between mid-April and mid-July when nests are active, through delaying the onset of grazing or introducing a rotational grazing system.

Site-specific lead exposure from lead pellet ingestion in sentinel mallards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocke, T.E.; Brand, C.J.; Mensik, John G.

1997-01-01

We monitored lead poisoning from the ingestion of spent lead pellets in sentinel mallards (Anas platyhrynchos) at the Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR), Willows, California for 4 years (1986-89) after the conversion to steel shot for waterfowl hunting on refuges in 1986. Sentinel mallards were held in 1.6-ha enclosures in 1 hunted (P8) and 2 non-hunted (T19 and TF) wetlands. We compared site-specific rates of lead exposure, as determined by periodic measurement of blood lead concentrations, and lead poisoning mortality between wetlands with different lead pellet densities, between seasons, and between male and female sentinels. In 1986, the estimated 2-week rate of lead exposure was significantly higher (P < 0.005) in P8 (43.8%), the wetland with the highest density of spent lead pellets (>2,000,000 pellets/ha), than in those with lower densities of lead pellets, T19 (18.1%; 173,200 pellets/ha) and TF (0.9%; 15,750 pellets/ha). The probability of mortality from lead poisoning was also significantly higher (P < 0.01) in sentinel mallards enclosed in P8 (0.25) than T19 (0) and TF (0) in 1986 and remained significantly higher (P < 0.001) during the 4-year study. Both lead exposure and the probability of lead poisoning mortality in P8 were significantly higher (P < 0.001) in the fall of 1986 (43.8%; 0.25), before hunting season, than in the spring of 1987 (21.6%; 0.04), after hunting season. We found no significant differences in the rates of lead exposure or lead poisoning mortality between male and female sentinel mallards. The results of this study demonstrate that in some locations, lead exposure and lead poisoning in waterfowl will continue to occur despite the conversion to steel shot for waterfowl hunting.

Simulation Of Wave Function And Probability Density Of Modified Poschl Teller Potential Derived Using Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angraini, Lily Maysari; Suparmi, Variani, Viska Inda

2010-12-01

SUSY quantum mechanics can be applied to solve Schrodinger equation for high dimensional system that can be reduced into one dimensional system and represented in lowering and raising operators. Lowering and raising operators can be obtained using relationship between original Hamiltonian equation and the (super) potential equation. In this paper SUSY quantum mechanics is used as a method to obtain the wave function and the energy level of the Modified Poschl Teller potential. The graph of wave function equation and probability density is simulated by using Delphi 7.0 programming language. Finally, the expectation value of quantum mechanics operator could be calculated analytically using integral form or probability density graph resulted by the programming.

Subtidal eelgrass/macroalgae surveys for the proposed breakwaters at the US Coast Guard Station at Ediz Hook, Washington, March 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shreffler, D.K.

1993-05-01

In 1993, the US Coast Guard proposed to construct two breakwaters and a debris boom to protect its existing pier and moored vessels inside Ediz Hook in Port Angeles Harbor, Washington. To assist the US Army Corps of Engineers -- Seattle District in determining the potential environmental impacts of the proposed breakwaters, Battelle/Marine Sciences Laboratory performed subtidal SCUBA surveys as specified in the Washington Department of Fisheries intermediate eelgrass/macroalgae habitat survey guidelines. The objectives of the subtidal surveys were to (1) quantify the shoot densities of eelgrass; (2) provide percent cover estimates for non-eelgrass macroalgae species; (3) develop a sitemore » map indicating the qualitative distribution of eelgrass/macroalgae species, substrate characterization, approximate depth contours, and the approximate location of the proposed project features; and (4) document the time and date of the surveys, turbidity/visibility, presence of invertebrate/vertebrate species, and anecdotal observations pertinent to habitat characterization of the project site. A total of 14 dives along 12 transects (T1--T12) were successfully completed between March 15 and March 17, 1993. Eelgrass was observed on all of the transects except T7 and T8 at the western debris barrier and T12 along the waterward margin of the existing T-pier. The vicinity of the proposed east breakwater had the highest eelgrass shoot densities (up to 89 shoots/m{sup 2}) observed by the divers. Macroalgae and invertebrate species diversity were also highest at the east breakwater site. The low eelgrass densities observed at the west debris barrier site (0 to 14 shoots/m{sup 2}) can be attributed mostly to the lack of suitable substrate. The existing layer of wood debris armoring the bottom at the west project site currently limits, and in the areas of heaviest deposition probably precludes, the growth of eelgrass. As was expected, no eelgrass was observed at the south breakwater site.« less

Modeling the Offensive-Defensive Interaction and Resulting Outcomes in Basketball.

PubMed

Lamas, Leonardo; Santana, Felipe; Heiner, Matthew; Ugrinowitsch, Carlos; Fellingham, Gilbert

2015-01-01

We analyzed the interaction between offensive (i.e. space creation dynamics--SCDs) and defensive (i.e. space protection dynamics--SPDs) actions in six play outcomes (free shot, contested shot, new SCD, reset, foul, and turnover) in Spanish professional basketball games. Data consisted of 1548 SCD-SPD-outcome triples obtained from six play-off games. We used Bayesian methods to compute marginal probabilities of six outcomes following five different SCDs. We also computed probabilities of the six outcomes following the 16 most frequent SCD-SPD combinations. The pick action (e.g. pick and roll, pop and pop) was the most prevalent SCD (33%). However, this SCD did not produce the highest probability of a free shot (0.235). The highest probability of a free shot followed the SCD without ball (0.409). The pick was performed not only to attempt scoring but also to initiate offenses, as it produced the highest probability leading to a new SCD (0.403). Additionally, the SPD performed influenced the outcome of the SCD. This reinforces the notion that the opposition (offensive-defensive interaction) should be considered. To the best of our knowledge, in team sports, this is the first study to successfully model the tactical features involved in offense-defense interactions. Our analyses revealed that the high frequency of occurrence of some SCDs may be justified not only by an associated high probability of free shots but also by the possibility of progressively create more space in the defense (i.e. a new SCD as outcome). In the second case, it evidences offensive strategic features of progressive disruption of the defensive system through the concatenation of subsequent offensive actions.

Modeling the Offensive-Defensive Interaction and Resulting Outcomes in Basketball

PubMed Central

Lamas, Leonardo; Santana, Felipe; Heiner, Matthew; Ugrinowitsch, Carlos; Fellingham, Gilbert

2015-01-01

Purpose We analyzed the interaction between offensive (i.e. space creation dynamics -SCDs) and defensive (i.e. space protection dynamics—SPDs) actions in six play outcomes (free shot, contested shot, new SCD, reset, foul, and turnover) in Spanish professional basketball games. Method Data consisted of 1548 SCD-SPD-outcome triples obtained from six play-off games. We used Bayesian methods to compute marginal probabilities of six outcomes following five different SCDs. We also computed probabilities of the six outcomes following the 16 most frequent SCD-SPD combinations. Results The pick action (e.g. pick and roll, pop and pop) was the most prevalent SCD (33%). However, this SCD did not produce the highest probability of a free shot (0.235). The highest probability of a free shot followed the SCD without ball (0.409). The pick was performed not only to attempt scoring but also to initiate offenses, as it produced the highest probability leading to a new SCD (0.403). Additionally, the SPD performed influenced the outcome of the SCD. This reinforces the notion that the opposition (offensive-defensive interaction) should be considered. To the best of our knowledge, in team sports, this is the first study to successfully model the tactical features involved in offense-defense interactions. Our analyses revealed that the high frequency of occurrence of some SCDs may be justified not only by an associated high probability of free shots but also by the possibility of progressively create more space in the defense (i.e. a new SCD as outcome). In the second case, it evidences offensive strategic features of progressive disruption of the defensive system through the concatenation of subsequent offensive actions. PMID:26659134

Generalized Wishart Mixtures for Unsupervised Classification of PolSAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Zengyuan

2013-01-01

This paper presents an unsupervised clustering algorithm based upon the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for finite mixture modelling, using the complex wishart probability density function (PDF) for the probabilities. The mixture model enables to consider heterogeneous thematic classes which could not be better fitted by the unimodal wishart distribution. In order to make it fast and robust to calculate, we use the recently proposed generalized gamma distribution (GΓD) for the single polarization intensity data to make the initial partition. Then we use the wishart probability density function for the corresponding sample covariance matrix to calculate the posterior class probabilities for each pixel. The posterior class probabilities are used for the prior probability estimates of each class and weights for all class parameter updates. The proposed method is evaluated and compared with the wishart H-Alpha-A classification. Preliminary results show that the proposed method has better performance.

The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretthorst, G. Larry

2013-08-01

The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

Distribution and Feeding Behavior of Omorgus suberosus (Coleoptera: Trogidae) in Lepidochelys olivacea Turtle Nests

PubMed Central

Baena, Martha L.; Escobar, Federico; Halffter, Gonzalo; García–Chávez, Juan H.

2015-01-01

Omorgus suberosus (Fabricius, 1775) has been identified as a potential predator of the eggs of the turtle Lepidochelys olivacea (Eschscholtz, 1829) on one of the main turtle nesting beaches in the world, La Escobilla in Oaxaca, Mexico. This study presents an analysis of the spatio–temporal distribution of the beetle on this beach (in areas of high and low density of L. olivacea nests over two arrival seasons) and an evaluation, under laboratory conditions, of the probability of damage to the turtle eggs by this beetle. O. suberosus adults and larvae exhibited an aggregated pattern at both turtle nest densities; however, aggregation was greater in areas of low nest density, where we found the highest proportion of damaged eggs. Also, there were fluctuations in the temporal distribution of the adult beetles following the arrival of the turtles on the beach. Under laboratory conditions, the beetles quickly damaged both dead eggs and a mixture of live and dead eggs, but were found to consume live eggs more slowly. This suggests that O. suberosus may be recycling organic material; however, its consumption of live eggs may be sufficient in some cases to interrupt the incubation period of the turtle. We intend to apply these results when making decisions regarding the L. olivacea nests on La Escobilla Beach, one of the most important sites for the conservation of this species. PMID:26422148

Car accidents induced by a bottleneck

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzoug, Rachid; Echab, Hicham; Ez-Zahraouy, Hamid

2017-12-01

Based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg model (NS) we study the probability of car accidents to occur (Pac) at the entrance of the merging part of two roads (i.e. junction). The simulation results show that the existence of non-cooperative drivers plays a chief role, where it increases the risk of collisions in the intermediate and high densities. Moreover, the impact of speed limit in the bottleneck (Vb) on the probability Pac is also studied. This impact depends strongly on the density, where, the increasing of Vb enhances Pac in the low densities. Meanwhile, it increases the road safety in the high densities. The phase diagram of the system is also constructed.

Modeling the Effect of Density-Dependent Chemical Interference Upon Seed Germination

PubMed Central

Sinkkonen, Aki

2005-01-01

A mathematical model is presented to estimate the effects of phytochemicals on seed germination. According to the model, phytochemicals tend to prevent germination at low seed densities. The model predicts that at high seed densities they may increase the probability of seed germination and the number of germinating seeds. Hence, the effects are reminiscent of the density-dependent effects of allelochemicals on plant growth, but the involved variables are germination probability and seedling number. The results imply that it should be possible to bypass inhibitory effects of allelopathy in certain agricultural practices and to increase the efficiency of nature conservation in several plant communities. PMID:19330163

Modeling the Effect of Density-Dependent Chemical Interference upon Seed Germination

PubMed Central

Sinkkonen, Aki

2006-01-01

A mathematical model is presented to estimate the effects of phytochemicals on seed germination. According to the model, phytochemicals tend to prevent germination at low seed densities. The model predicts that at high seed densities they may increase the probability of seed germination and the number of germinating seeds. Hence, the effects are reminiscent of the density-dependent effects of allelochemicals on plant growth, but the involved variables are germination probability and seedling number. The results imply that it should be possible to bypass inhibitory effects of allelopathy in certain agricultural practices and to increase the efficiency of nature conservation in several plant communities. PMID:18648596

Probability density of tunneled carrier states near heterojunctions calculated numerically by the scattering method.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wampler, William R.; Myers, Samuel M.; Modine, Normand A.

2017-09-01

The energy-dependent probability density of tunneled carrier states for arbitrarily specified longitudinal potential-energy profiles in planar bipolar devices is numerically computed using the scattering method. Results agree accurately with a previous treatment based on solution of the localized eigenvalue problem, where computation times are much greater. These developments enable quantitative treatment of tunneling-assisted recombination in irradiated heterojunction bipolar transistors, where band offsets may enhance the tunneling effect by orders of magnitude. The calculations also reveal the density of non-tunneled carrier states in spatially varying potentials, and thereby test the common approximation of uniform- bulk values for such densities.

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

2013-01-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Statistics of cosmic density profiles from perturbation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardeau, Francis; Pichon, Christophe; Codis, Sandrine

2014-11-01

The joint probability distribution function (PDF) of the density within multiple concentric spherical cells is considered. It is shown how its cumulant generating function can be obtained at tree order in perturbation theory as the Legendre transform of a function directly built in terms of the initial moments. In the context of the upcoming generation of large-scale structure surveys, it is conjectured that this result correctly models such a function for finite values of the variance. Detailed consequences of this assumption are explored. In particular the corresponding one-cell density probability distribution at finite variance is computed for realistic power spectra, taking into account its scale variation. It is found to be in agreement with Λ -cold dark matter simulations at the few percent level for a wide range of density values and parameters. Related explicit analytic expansions at the low and high density tails are given. The conditional (at fixed density) and marginal probability of the slope—the density difference between adjacent cells—and its fluctuations is also computed from the two-cell joint PDF; it also compares very well to simulations. It is emphasized that this could prove useful when studying the statistical properties of voids as it can serve as a statistical indicator to test gravity models and/or probe key cosmological parameters.

Discovery of a large-scale clumpy structure around the Lynx supercluster at z~ 1.27

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakata, Fumiaki; Kodama, Tadayuki; Shimasaku, Kazuhiro; Doi, Mamoru; Furusawa, Hisanori; Hamabe, Masaru; Kimura, Masahiko; Komiyama, Yutaka; Miyazaki, Satoshi; Okamura, Sadanori; Ouchi, Masami; Sekiguchi, Maki; Ueda, Yoshihiro; Yagi, Masafumi; Yasuda, Naoki

2005-03-01

We report the discovery of a probable large-scale structure composed of many galaxy clumps around the known twin clusters at z= 1.26 and 1.27 in the Lynx region. Our analysis is based on deep, panoramic, and multicolour imaging, 26.4 × 24.1 arcmin2 in VRi'z' bands with the Suprime-Cam on the 8.2-m Subaru telescope. This unique, deep and wide-field imaging data set allows us for the first time to map out the galaxy distribution in the highest-redshift supercluster known. We apply a photometric redshift technique to extract plausible cluster members at z~ 1.27 down to i'= 26.15 (5σ) corresponding to ~M*+ 2.5 at this redshift. From the two-dimensional distribution of these photometrically selected galaxies, we newly identify seven candidates of galaxy groups or clusters where the surface density of red galaxies is significantly high (>5σ), in addition to the two known clusters. These candidates show clear red colour-magnitude sequences consistent with a passive evolution model, which suggests the existence of additional high-density regions around the Lynx superclusters.

Walleye recruitment success is less resilient to warming water temperatures in lakes with abundant largemouth bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (i) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success and (ii) identify the influence of lake characteristics — area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD — on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = −0.11, 90% CI = −0.34, 0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%) and positive in 161 (45%). The effect of annual DD was most negative in lakes with high largemouth bass densities, and, on average, the probability of recruitment was highest in large lakes with low largemouth bass densities. Conductivity and mean DD influenced neither recruitment nor the effect of annual DD. Walleye recruitment was most resilient to warming in lakes with few largemouth bass, suggesting that the effects of climate change depend on lake-specific food-web and habitat contexts.

Managing environmental noise in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kai Ming

2004-05-01

Hong Kong is well known for its economic vibrancy and its hyper densely population: more than 7 million people living in a total area of slightly over 1000 square kilometers of hilly areas. Most of these people live and work in about 20% of the total land area, resulting in probably the highest densities in the world. The high population density is also matched by a large number of vehicles running in the roads. At present, there are over 400000 vehicles operating on a highway network less than 1000 km in length. With all these factors plus many urban activities associated with the rapid growth and development, noise is an important environmental issue in the city. Although there are many dimensions for the quality of life, the acoustic environment is undoubtedly an essential part of it, especially when the people's aspirations increase as the society develops. This paper summarizes the development of strategies for controlling environmental noise in Hong Kong in the past two decades. The current situation will be addressed and a proposal for an improved traffic noise policy will be presented. [Work supported by the Research Grants Council, and The Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

Word Recognition and Nonword Repetition in Children with Language Disorders: The Effects of Neighborhood Density, Lexical Frequency, and Phonotactic Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rispens, Judith; Baker, Anne; Duinmeijer, Iris

2015-01-01

Purpose: The effects of neighborhood density (ND) and lexical frequency on word recognition and the effects of phonotactic probability (PP) on nonword repetition (NWR) were examined to gain insight into processing at the lexical and sublexical levels in typically developing (TD) children and children with developmental language problems. Method:…

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Justin B.

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

PubMed

Kinney, Justin B

2015-09-01

The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

Optimizing probability of detection point estimate demonstration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2017-04-01

The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using point estimate method. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. Traditionally largest flaw size in the set is considered to be a conservative estimate of the flaw size with minimum 90% probability and 95% confidence. The flaw size is denoted as α90/95PE. The paper investigates relationship between range of flaw sizes in relation to α90, i.e. 90% probability flaw size, to provide a desired PPD. The range of flaw sizes is expressed as a proportion of the standard deviation of the probability density distribution. Difference between median or average of the 29 flaws and α90 is also expressed as a proportion of standard deviation of the probability density distribution. In general, it is concluded that, if probability of detection increases with flaw size, average of 29 flaw sizes would always be larger than or equal to α90 and is an acceptable measure of α90/95PE. If NDE technique has sufficient sensitivity and signal-to-noise ratio, then the 29 flaw-set can be optimized to meet requirements of minimum required PPD, maximum allowable POF, requirements on flaw size tolerance about mean flaw size and flaw size detectability requirements. The paper provides procedure for optimizing flaw sizes in the point estimate demonstration flaw-set.

Phonotactics, Neighborhood Activation, and Lexical Access for Spoken Words

PubMed Central

Vitevitch, Michael S.; Luce, Paul A.; Pisoni, David B.; Auer, Edward T.

2012-01-01

Probabilistic phonotactics refers to the relative frequencies of segments and sequences of segments in spoken words. Neighborhood density refers to the number of words that are phonologically similar to a given word. Despite a positive correlation between phonotactic probability and neighborhood density, nonsense words with high probability segments and sequences are responded to more quickly than nonsense words with low probability segments and sequences, whereas real words occurring in dense similarity neighborhoods are responded to more slowly than real words occurring in sparse similarity neighborhoods. This contradiction may be resolved by hypothesizing that effects of probabilistic phonotactics have a sublexical focus and that effects of similarity neighborhood density have a lexical focus. The implications of this hypothesis for models of spoken word recognition are discussed. PMID:10433774

Fractional Brownian motion with a reflecting wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Alexander H. O.; Vojta, Thomas

2018-02-01

Fractional Brownian motion, a stochastic process with long-time correlations between its increments, is a prototypical model for anomalous diffusion. We analyze fractional Brownian motion in the presence of a reflecting wall by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Whereas the mean-square displacement of the particle shows the expected anomalous diffusion behavior ˜tα , the interplay between the geometric confinement and the long-time memory leads to a highly non-Gaussian probability density function with a power-law singularity at the barrier. In the superdiffusive case α >1 , the particles accumulate at the barrier leading to a divergence of the probability density. For subdiffusion α <1 , in contrast, the probability density is depleted close to the barrier. We discuss implications of these findings, in particular, for applications that are dominated by rare events.

Egg production and egg quality in free-range laying hens housed at different outdoor stocking densities.

PubMed

Campbell, D L M; Lee, C; Hinch, G N; Roberts, J R

2017-09-01

Free-range laying hen systems are increasing in number within Australia. Variation in outdoor stocking densities has led to development of a national information standard on free-range egg labeling, including setting a maximum density of 10,000 hens per hectare. However, there are few data on the impacts of differing outdoor densities on production and egg quality. ISA Brown hens in small (150 hens) flocks were housed in identical indoor pens, each with access (from 21 weeks) to different sized ranges simulating one of three outdoor stocking densities (2 replicates each: 2,000 hens/hectare (ha), 10,000 hens/ha, 20,000 hens/ha). Hen-day production was tracked from 21 through 35 weeks with eggs visually graded daily for external deformities. All eggs laid on one day were weighed each week. Eggs were collected from each pen at 25, 30, and 36 weeks and analyzed for egg quality. There were no effects of outdoor stocking density on average hen-day percentage production (P = 0.67), egg weight (P = 0.09), percentages of deformed eggs (P = 0.30), shell reflectivity (P = 0.74), shell breaking strength (P = 0.07), shell deformation (P = 0.83), or shell thickness (P = 0.24). Eggs from hens in the highest density had the highest percentage shell weight (P = 0.004) and eggs from the lowest density had the highest yolk color score (P < 0.001). The amount of cuticle present did not differ between densities (P = 0.95) but some aspects of shell colors (P ≤ 0.01) and location of protoporphyrin IX (P = 0.046) varied. Hen age affected the majority of measurements. Stocking density differences may be related to hen diet as previous radio-frequency identification tracking of individual hens in these flocks showed birds used the range for longer in the lowest density and the least in the highest density, including depleting the range of vegetation sooner in the smaller ranges. An additional study assessing the relationship between individual hen range use, nutrition, and egg quality is warranted. © 2017 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Numerical study of the influence of surface reaction probabilities on reactive species in an rf atmospheric pressure plasma containing humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Sandra; Gibson, Andrew R.; Kushner, Mark J.; Gans, Timo; O'Connell, Deborah

2018-01-01

The quantification and control of reactive species (RS) in atmospheric pressure plasmas (APPs) is of great interest for their technological applications, in particular in biomedicine. Of key importance in simulating the densities of these species are fundamental data on their production and destruction. In particular, data concerning particle-surface reaction probabilities in APPs are scarce, with most of these probabilities measured in low-pressure systems. In this work, the role of surface reaction probabilities, γ, of reactive neutral species (H, O and OH) on neutral particle densities in a He-H2O radio-frequency micro APP jet (COST-μ APPJ) are investigated using a global model. It is found that the choice of γ, particularly for low-mass species having large diffusivities, such as H, can change computed species densities significantly. The importance of γ even at elevated pressures offers potential for tailoring the RS composition of atmospheric pressure microplasmas by choosing different wall materials or plasma geometries.

Effects of heterogeneous traffic with speed limit zone on the car accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzoug, R.; Lakouari, N.; Bentaleb, K.; Ez-Zahraouy, H.; Benyoussef, A.

2016-06-01

Using the extended Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model, we numerically study the impact of the heterogeneity of traffic with speed limit zone (SLZ) on the probability of occurrence of car accidents (Pac). SLZ in the heterogeneous traffic has an important effect, typically in the mixture velocities case. In the deterministic case, SLZ leads to the appearance of car accidents even in the low densities, in this region Pac increases with increasing of fraction of fast vehicles (Ff). In the nondeterministic case, SLZ decreases the effect of braking probability Pb in the low densities. Furthermore, the impact of multi-SLZ on the probability Pac is also studied. In contrast with the homogeneous case [X. Li, H. Kuang, Y. Fan and G. Zhang, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 25 (2014) 1450036], it is found that in the low densities the probability Pac without SLZ (n = 0) is low than Pac with multi-SLZ (n > 0). However, the existence of multi-SLZ in the road decreases the risk of collision in the congestion phase.

Maximum likelihood density modification by pattern recognition of structural motifs

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C.

2004-04-13

An electron density for a crystallographic structure having protein regions and solvent regions is improved by maximizing the log likelihood of a set of structures factors {F.sub.h } using a local log-likelihood function: (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV)p.sub.SOLV (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.H)p.sub.H (x)], where p.sub.PROT (x) is the probability that x is in the protein region, p(.rho.(x).vertline.PROT) is the conditional probability for .rho.(x) given that x is in the protein region, and p.sub.SOLV (x) and p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV) are the corresponding quantities for the solvent region, p.sub.H (x) refers to the probability that there is a structural motif at a known location, with a known orientation, in the vicinity of the point x; and p(.rho.(x).vertline.H) is the probability distribution for electron density at this point given that the structural motif actually is present. One appropriate structural motif is a helical structure within the crystallographic structure.

Method for removing atomic-model bias in macromolecular crystallography

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C [Santa Fe, NM

2006-08-01

Structure factor bias in an electron density map for an unknown crystallographic structure is minimized by using information in a first electron density map to elicit expected structure factor information. Observed structure factor amplitudes are combined with a starting set of crystallographic phases to form a first set of structure factors. A first electron density map is then derived and features of the first electron density map are identified to obtain expected distributions of electron density. Crystallographic phase probability distributions are established for possible crystallographic phases of reflection k, and the process is repeated as k is indexed through all of the plurality of reflections. An updated electron density map is derived from the crystallographic phase probability distributions for each one of the reflections. The entire process is then iterated to obtain a final set of crystallographic phases with minimum bias from known electron density maps.

An empirical probability model of detecting species at low densities.

PubMed

Delaney, David G; Leung, Brian

2010-06-01

False negatives, not detecting things that are actually present, are an important but understudied problem. False negatives are the result of our inability to perfectly detect species, especially those at low density such as endangered species or newly arriving introduced species. They reduce our ability to interpret presence-absence survey data and make sound management decisions (e.g., rapid response). To reduce the probability of false negatives, we need to compare the efficacy and sensitivity of different sampling approaches and quantify an unbiased estimate of the probability of detection. We conducted field experiments in the intertidal zone of New England and New York to test the sensitivity of two sampling approaches (quadrat vs. total area search, TAS), given different target characteristics (mobile vs. sessile). Using logistic regression we built detection curves for each sampling approach that related the sampling intensity and the density of targets to the probability of detection. The TAS approach reduced the probability of false negatives and detected targets faster than the quadrat approach. Mobility of targets increased the time to detection but did not affect detection success. Finally, we interpreted two years of presence-absence data on the distribution of the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) in New England and New York, using our probability model for false negatives. The type of experimental approach in this paper can help to reduce false negatives and increase our ability to detect species at low densities by refining sampling approaches, which can guide conservation strategies and management decisions in various areas of ecology such as conservation biology and invasion ecology.

Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reppucci, J.; Gardner, B.; Lucherini, M.

2011-01-01

The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October-December 2006 and April-June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture-recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km 2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74-0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

Estimating detection and density of the Andean cat in the high Andes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reppucci, Juan; Gardner, Beth; Lucherini, Mauro

2011-01-01

The Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita) is one of the most endangered, yet least known, felids. Although the Andean cat is considered at risk of extinction, rigorous quantitative population studies are lacking. Because physical observations of the Andean cat are difficult to make in the wild, we used a camera-trapping array to photo-capture individuals. The survey was conducted in northwestern Argentina at an elevation of approximately 4,200 m during October–December 2006 and April–June 2007. In each year we deployed 22 pairs of camera traps, which were strategically placed. To estimate detection probability and density we applied models for spatial capture–recapture using a Bayesian framework. Estimated densities were 0.07 and 0.12 individual/km2 for 2006 and 2007, respectively. Mean baseline detection probability was estimated at 0.07. By comparison, densities of the Pampas cat (Leopardus colocolo), another poorly known felid that shares its habitat with the Andean cat, were estimated at 0.74–0.79 individual/km2 in the same study area for 2006 and 2007, and its detection probability was estimated at 0.02. Despite having greater detectability, the Andean cat is rarer in the study region than the Pampas cat. Properly accounting for the detection probability is important in making reliable estimates of density, a key parameter in conservation and management decisions for any species.

Approved Methods and Algorithms for DoD Risk-Based Explosives Siting

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-02

glass. Pgha Probability of a person being in the glass hazard area Phit Probability of hit Phit (f) Probability of hit for fatality Phit (maji...Probability of hit for major injury Phit (mini) Probability of hit for minor injury Pi Debris probability densities at the ES PMaj (pair) Individual...combined high-angle and combined low-angle tables. A unique probability of hit is calculated for the three consequences of fatality, Phit (f), major injury

Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

2007-01-01

Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Correlative velocity fluctuations over a gravel river bed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinehart, Randal L.

1999-01-01

Velocity fluctuations in a steep, coarse‐bedded river were measured in flow depths ranging from 0.8 to 2.2 m, with mean velocities at middepth from 1.1 to 3.1 m s−1. Analyses of synchronous velocity records for two and three points in the vertical showed a broad range of high coherence for wave periods from 10 to 100 s, centering around 10–30 s. Streamwise correlations over distances of 9 and 14 m showed convection velocities near mean velocity for the same wave periods. The range of coherent wave periods was a small multiple of predicted “boil” periods. Correlative fluctuations in synchronous velocity records in the vertical direction suggested the blending of short pulses into longer wave periods. The highest spectral densities were measured beyond the range of coherent wave periods and were probably induced by migration of low‐relief bed forms.

Light-extraction efficiency and forward voltage in GaN-based light-emitting diodes with different patterns of V-shaped pits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Min-Shuai; Huang, Xiao-Jing

2013-08-01

We present a new method of making a textured V-pit surface for improving the light extraction efficiency in GaN-based light-emitting diodes and compare it with the usual low-temperature method for p-GaN V-pits. Three types of GaN-based light-emitting diodes (LEDs) with surface V-pits in different densities and regions were grown by metal—organic chemical vapor deposition. We achieved the highest output power and lowest forward voltage values with the p-InGaN V-pit LED. The V-pits enhanced the light output power values by 1.45 times the values of the conventional LED owing to an enhancement of the light scattering probability and an effective reduction of Mg-acceptor activation energy. Moreover, this new technique effectively solved the higher forward voltage problem of the usual V-pit LED.

Bioirrigation impacts on sediment respiration and microbial metabolic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranov, V. A.; Lewandowski, J.; Romeijn, P.; Krause, S.

2015-12-01

Some bioturbators build tubes in the sediment and pump water through their burrows (ventilation). Oxygen is transferred through the burrow walls in the adjacent sediment (bioirrigation). Bioirrigation is playing a pivotal role in the mediation of biogeochemical processes in lake sediments and has the potential to enhance nutrient cycling. The present study investigates the impact of bioirrigation on lake sediment metabolism, respiration rates and in particular, the biogeochemical impacts of bioirrigation intensity as a function of organism density. We therefore apply the bioreactive Resazurin/Resorufin smart tracer system for quantifying the impact of different densities of Chironomidae (Diptera) larvae (0-2112 larvae/m2) on lake sediment respiration in a microcosm experiment. Tracer decay has been found to be proportional to the amount of the aerobic respiration at the sediment-water interface. Tracer transformation was in good agreement with Chironomidae density (correlation, r=0.9). Tracer transformation rates (and sediment respiration) were found to be correlated to Chironomidae density, with highest transformation rates observed in the microcosms with highest density of 2112 larvae/m2. This relationship was not linear though, with sediment respiration rates at the highest larvae densities declining from the linear trend predicted from lower and intermediate larvae density-respiration relationships. We interpret this effect as a density dependent suppression of the Chironomid's metabolic activity. The observations of this study have implications for eutrophied lakes with high densities of bioirrigators. Despite high density of bioirrigirrigating benthos, mineralization of the organic matter in such habitats would likely be lower than in lakes with intermediate densities of the bioturbators.

Three Gorges Dam: polynomial regression modeling of water level and the density of schistosome-transmitting snails Oncomelania hupensis.

PubMed

Yang, Ya; Gao, Jianchuan; Cheng, Wanting; Pan, Xiang; Yang, Yu; Chen, Yue; Dai, Qingqing; Zhu, Lan; Zhou, Yibiao; Jiang, Qingwu

2018-03-14

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in China. Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis) is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, and its change in distribution and density influences the endemic S. japonicum. The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has substantially changed the downstream water levels of the dam. This study investigated the quantitative relationship between flooding duration and the density of the snail population. Two bottomlands without any control measures for snails were selected in Yueyang City, Hunan Province. Data for the density of the snail population and water level in both spring and autumn were collected for the period 2009-2015. Polynomial regression analysis was applied to explore the relationship between flooding duration and the density of the snail population. Data showed a convex relationship between spring snail density and flooding duration of the previous year (adjusted R 2 , aR 2  = 0.61). The spring snail density remained low when the flooding duration was fewer than 50 days in the previous year, was the highest when the flooding duration was 123 days, and decreased thereafter. There was a similar convex relationship between autumn snail density and flooding duration of the current year (aR 2  = 0.77). The snail density was low when the flooding duration was fewer than 50 days and was the highest when the flooding duration was 139 days. There was a convex relationship between flooding duration and the spring or autumn snail density. The snail density was the highest when flooding lasted about four to 5 months.

A tool for the estimation of the distribution of landslide area in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, M.; Cardinali, M.; Fiorucci, F.; Marchesini, I.; Mondini, A. C.; Santangelo, M.; Ghosh, S.; Riguer, D. E. L.; Lahousse, T.; Chang, K. T.; Guzzetti, F.

2012-04-01

We have developed a tool in R (the free software environment for statistical computing, http://www.r-project.org/) to estimate the probability density and the frequency density of landslide area. The tool implements parametric and non-parametric approaches to the estimation of the probability density and the frequency density of landslide area, including: (i) Histogram Density Estimation (HDE), (ii) Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and (iii) Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The tool is available as a standard Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Service (WPS), and is accessible through the web using different GIS software clients. We tested the tool to compare Double Pareto and Inverse Gamma models for the probability density of landslide area in different geological, morphological and climatological settings, and to compare landslides shown in inventory maps prepared using different mapping techniques, including (i) field mapping, (ii) visual interpretation of monoscopic and stereoscopic aerial photographs, (iii) visual interpretation of monoscopic and stereoscopic VHR satellite images and (iv) semi-automatic detection and mapping from VHR satellite images. Results show that both models are applicable in different geomorphological settings. In most cases the two models provided very similar results. Non-parametric estimation methods (i.e., HDE and KDE) provided reasonable results for all the tested landslide datasets. For some of the datasets, MLE failed to provide a result, for convergence problems. The two tested models (Double Pareto and Inverse Gamma) resulted in very similar results for large and very large datasets (> 150 samples). Differences in the modeling results were observed for small datasets affected by systematic biases. A distinct rollover was observed in all analyzed landslide datasets, except for a few datasets obtained from landslide inventories prepared through field mapping or by semi-automatic mapping from VHR satellite imagery. The tool can also be used to evaluate the probability density and the frequency density of landslide volume.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Structure of young stellar clusters. II. (Kuhn+, 2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, M. A.; Getman, K. V.; Feigelson, E. D.

2015-07-01

We investigate the intrinsic stellar populations (estimated total numbers of OB and pre-main-sequence stars down to 0.1Mȯ) that are present in 17 massive star-forming regions (MSFRs) surveyed by the MYStIX project. The study is based on the catalog of >31000 MYStIX Probable Complex Members with both disk-bearing and disk-free populations, compensating for extinction, nebulosity, and crowding effects. Correction for observational sensitivities is made using the X-ray luminosity function and the near-infrared initial mass function --a correction that is often not made by infrared surveys of young stars. The resulting maps of the projected structure of the young stellar populations, in units of intrinsic stellar surface density, allow direct comparison between different regions. Several regions have multiple dense clumps, similar in size and density to the Orion Nebula Cluster. The highest projected density of ~34000 stars/pc2 is found in the core of the RCW 38 cluster. Histograms of surface density show different ranges of values in different regions, supporting the conclusion of Bressert et al. (B10; 2010MNRAS.409L..54B) that no universal surface-density threshold can distinguish between clustered and distributed star formation. However, a large component of the young stellar population of MSFRs resides in dense environments of 200-10000 stars/pc2 (including within the nearby Orion molecular clouds), and we find that there is no evidence for the B10 conclusion that such dense regions form an extreme "tail" of the distribution. Tables of intrinsic populations for these regions are used in our companion study of young cluster properties and evolution. (3 data files).

Spatiotemporal variation of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in olive (Olea europaea L.) roots across a broad mesic-xeric climatic gradient in North Africa.

PubMed

Meddad-Hamza, Amel; Hamza, Nabila; Neffar, Souad; Beddiar, Arifa; Gianinazzi, Silvio; Chenchouni, Haroun

2017-04-01

This study aims to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of root colonization and spore density of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) in the rhizosphere of olive trees (Olea europaea) with different plantation ages and under different climatic areas in Algeria. Soil and root samples were seasonally collected from three olive plantations of different ages. Other samples were carried out in productive olive orchards cultivated under a climatic gradient (desertic, semi-arid, subhumid, and humid). The olive varieties analysed in this study were Blanquette, Rougette, Chemlel and the wild-olive. Spore density, mycorrhization intensity (M%), spore diversity and the most probable number (MPN) were determined. Both the intensity of mycorrhizal colonization and spore density increased with the increase of seasonal precipitation and decreased with the increase of air temperature regardless of the climatic region or olive variety. The variety Rougette had the highest mycorrhizal levels in all plantation ages and climates. Spore community was composed of the genera Rhizophagus, Funneliformis, Glomus, Septoglomus, Gigaspora, Scutellospora and Entrophospora. The genus Glomus, with four species, predominated in all climate regions. Spores of Gigaspora sp. and Scutellospora sp. were the most abundant in desertic plantations. Statistical models indicated a positive relationship between spore density and M% during spring and winter in young seedlings and old plantations. A significant positive relationship was found between MPN and spore density under different climates. For a mycotrophic species, the rhizosphere of olive trees proved to be poor in mycorrhiza in terms of mycorrhizal colonization and numbers of the infective AMF propagules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampling techniques for burbot in a western non-wadeable river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Z. B.; Quist, Michael C.; Rhea, D.T.; Senecal, A. C.

2015-01-01

Burbot, Lota lota (L.), populations are declining throughout much of their native distribution. Although numerous aspects of burbot ecology are well understood, less is known about effective sampling techniques for burbot in lotic systems. Occupancy models were used to estimate the probability of detection () for three gears (6.4- and 19-mm bar mesh hoop nets, night electric fishing), within the context of various habitat characteristics. During the summer, night electric fishing had the highest estimated detection probability for both juvenile (, 95% C.I.; 0.35, 0.26–0.46) and adult (0.30, 0.20–0.41) burbot. However, small-mesh hoop nets (6.4-mm bar mesh) had similar detection probabilities to night electric fishing for both juvenile (0.26, 0.17–0.36) and adult (0.27, 0.18–0.39) burbot during the summer. In autumn, a similar overlap between detection probabilities was observed for juvenile and adult burbot. Small-mesh hoop nets had the highest estimated probability of detection for both juvenile and adult burbot (0.46, 0.33–0.59), whereas night electric fishing had a detection probability of 0.39 (0.28–0.52) for juvenile and adult burbot. By using detection probabilities to compare gears, the most effective sampling technique can be identified, leading to increased species detections and more effective management of burbot.

Unrealistic phylogenetic trees may improve phylogenetic footprinting.

PubMed

Nettling, Martin; Treutler, Hendrik; Cerquides, Jesus; Grosse, Ivo

2017-06-01

The computational investigation of DNA binding motifs from binding sites is one of the classic tasks in bioinformatics and a prerequisite for understanding gene regulation as a whole. Due to the development of sequencing technologies and the increasing number of available genomes, approaches based on phylogenetic footprinting become increasingly attractive. Phylogenetic footprinting requires phylogenetic trees with attached substitution probabilities for quantifying the evolution of binding sites, but these trees and substitution probabilities are typically not known and cannot be estimated easily. Here, we investigate the influence of phylogenetic trees with different substitution probabilities on the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting using synthetic and real data. For synthetic data we find that the classification performance is highest when the substitution probability used for phylogenetic footprinting is similar to that used for data generation. For real data, however, we typically find that the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting surprisingly increases with increasing substitution probabilities and is often highest for unrealistically high substitution probabilities close to one. This finding suggests that choosing realistic model assumptions might not always yield optimal predictions in general and that choosing unrealistically high substitution probabilities close to one might actually improve the classification performance of phylogenetic footprinting. The proposed PF is implemented in JAVA and can be downloaded from https://github.com/mgledi/PhyFoo. : martin.nettling@informatik.uni-halle.de. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Modeling potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus) reservoir, in Argentina.

PubMed

Andreo, Verónica; Glass, Gregory; Shields, Timothy; Provensal, Cecilia; Polop, Jaime

2011-09-01

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.

Integrating resource selection information with spatial capture--recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.

2013-01-01

4. Finally, we find that SCR models using standard symmetric and stationary encounter probability models may not fully explain variation in encounter probability due to space usage, and therefore produce biased estimates of density when animal space usage is related to resource selection. Consequently, it is important that space usage be taken into consideration, if possible, in studies focused on estimating density using capture–recapture methods.

Effect of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word-Learning Configuration by Preschoolers with Typical Development and Specific Language Impairment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Shelley; Pittman, Andrea; Weinhold, Juliet

2014-01-01

Purpose: In this study, the authors assessed the effects of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word-learning configuration by preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) and typical language development (TD). Method: One hundred thirty-one children participated: 48 with SLI, 44 with TD matched on age and gender, and 39…

The Effect of Phonotactic Probability and Neighbourhood Density on Pseudoword Learning in 6- and 7-Year-Old Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Kleij, Sanne W.; Rispens, Judith E.; Scheper, Annette R.

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability (PP) and neighbourhood density (ND) on pseudoword learning in 17 Dutch-speaking typically developing children (mean age 7;2). They were familiarized with 16 one-syllable pseudowords varying in PP (high vs low) and ND (high vs low) via a storytelling procedure. The…

Carryover effects associated with winter location affect fitness, social status, and population dynamics in a long-distance migrant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedinger, James S.; Schamber, Jason L.; Ward, David H.; Nicolai, Christopher A.; Conant, Bruce

2011-01-01

We used observations of individually marked female black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) at three wintering lagoons on the Pacific coast of Baja California—Laguna San Ignacio (LSI), Laguna Ojo de Liebre (LOL), and Bahía San Quintín (BSQ)—and the Tutakoke River breeding colony in Alaska to assess hypotheses about carryover effects on breeding and distribution of individuals among wintering areas. We estimated transition probabilities from wintering locations to breeding and nonbreeding by using multistratum robust-design capture-mark-recapture models. We also examined the effect of breeding on migration to wintering areas to assess the hypothesis that individuals in family groups occupied higher-quality wintering locations. We used 4,538 unique female brant in our analysis of the relationship between winter location and breeding probability. All competitive models of breeding probability contained additive effects of wintering location and the 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on probability of breeding. Probability of breeding in non-ENSO years was 0.98 ± 0.02, 0.68 ± 0.04, and 0.91 ± 0.11 for females wintering at BSQ, LOL, and LSI, respectively. After the 1997–1998 ENSO event, breeding probability was between 2% (BSQ) and 38% (LOL) lower than in other years. Individuals that bred had the highest probability of migrating the next fall to the wintering area producing the highest probability of breeding.

Properties of the probability density function of the non-central chi-squared distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

András, Szilárd; Baricz, Árpád

2008-10-01

In this paper we consider the probability density function (pdf) of a non-central [chi]2 distribution with arbitrary number of degrees of freedom. For this function we prove that can be represented as a finite sum and we deduce a partial derivative formula. Moreover, we show that the pdf is log-concave when the degrees of freedom is greater or equal than 2. At the end of this paper we present some Turán-type inequalities for this function and an elegant application of the monotone form of l'Hospital's rule in probability theory is given.

Assessing hypotheses about nesting site occupancy dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Royle, J. Andrew; Cam, Emmanuelle

2011-01-01

Hypotheses about habitat selection developed in the evolutionary ecology framework assume that individuals, under some conditions, select breeding habitat based on expected fitness in different habitat. The relationship between habitat quality and fitness may be reflected by breeding success of individuals, which may in turn be used to assess habitat quality. Habitat quality may also be assessed via local density: if high-quality sites are preferentially used, high density may reflect high-quality habitat. Here we assessed whether site occupancy dynamics vary with site surrogates for habitat quality. We modeled nest site use probability in a seabird subcolony (the Black-legged Kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla) over a 20-year period. We estimated site persistence (an occupied site remains occupied from time t to t + 1) and colonization through two subprocesses: first colonization (site creation at the timescale of the study) and recolonization (a site is colonized again after being deserted). Our model explicitly incorporated site-specific and neighboring breeding success and conspecific density in the neighborhood. Our results provided evidence that reproductively "successful'' sites have a higher persistence probability than "unsuccessful'' ones. Analyses of site fidelity in marked birds and of survival probability showed that high site persistence predominantly reflects site fidelity, not immediate colonization by new owners after emigration or death of previous owners. There is a negative quadratic relationship between local density and persistence probability. First colonization probability decreases with density, whereas recolonization probability is constant. This highlights the importance of distinguishing initial colonization and recolonization to understand site occupancy. All dynamics varied positively with neighboring breeding success. We found evidence of a positive interaction between site-specific and neighboring breeding success. We addressed local population dynamics using a site occupancy approach integrating hypotheses developed in behavioral ecology to account for individual decisions. This allows development of models of population and metapopulation dynamics that explicitly incorporate ecological and evolutionary processes.

Estimating the influence of population density and dispersal behavior on the ability to detect and monitor Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations.

PubMed

Mercader, R J; Siegert, N W; McCullough, D G

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees native to Asia, was first discovered in North America in 2002. Since then, A. planipennis has been found in 15 states and two Canadian provinces and has killed tens of millions of ash trees. Understanding the probability of detecting and accurately delineating low density populations of A. planipennis is a key component of effective management strategies. Here we approach this issue by 1) quantifying the efficiency of sampling nongirdled ash trees to detect new infestations of A. planipennis under varying population densities and 2) evaluating the likelihood of accurately determining the localized spread of discrete A. planipennis infestations. To estimate the probability a sampled tree would be detected as infested across a gradient of A. planipennis densities, we used A. planipennis larval density estimates collected during intensive surveys conducted in three recently infested sites with known origins. Results indicated the probability of detecting low density populations by sampling nongirdled trees was very low, even when detection tools were assumed to have three-fold higher detection probabilities than nongirdled trees. Using these results and an A. planipennis spread model, we explored the expected accuracy with which the spatial extent of an A. planipennis population could be determined. Model simulations indicated a poor ability to delineate the extent of the distribution of localized A. planipennis populations, particularly when a small proportion of the population was assumed to have a higher propensity for dispersal.

On Schrödinger's bridge problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedland, S.

2017-11-01

In the first part of this paper we generalize Georgiou-Pavon's result that a positive square matrix can be scaled uniquely to a column stochastic matrix which maps a given positive probability vector to another given positive probability vector. In the second part we prove that a positive quantum channel can be scaled to another positive quantum channel which maps a given positive definite density matrix to another given positive definite density matrix using Brouwer's fixed point theorem. This result proves the Georgiou-Pavon conjecture for two positive definite density matrices, made in their recent paper. We show that the fixed points are unique for certain pairs of positive definite density matrices. Bibliography: 15 titles.

Neuropathological diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Murayama, Shigeo; Saito, Yuko

2004-09-01

Neuropathological diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are based on tau-related pathology: NFT or neuritic plaques (NP). The Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's disease (CERAD) criterion evaluates the highest density of neocortical NP from 0 (none) to C (abundant). Clinical documentation of dementia and NP stage A in younger cases, B in young old cases and C in older cases fulfils the criterion of AD. The CERAD criterion is most frequently used in clinical outcome studies because of its inclusion of clinical information. Braak and Braak's criterion evaluates the density and distribution of NFT and classifies them into: I/II, entorhinal; III/IV, limbic; and V/VI, neocortical stage. These three stages correspond to normal cognition, cognitive impairment and dementia, respectively. As Braak's criterion is based on morphological evaluation of the brain alone, this criterion is usually adopted in the research setting. The National Institute for Aging and Ronald and Nancy Reagan Institute of the Alzheimer's Association criterion combines these two criteria and categorizes cases into NFT V/VI and NP C, NFT III/IV and NP B, and NFT I/II and NP A, corresponding to high, middle and low probability of AD, respectively. As most AD cases in the aged population are categorized into Braak tangle stage IV and CERAD stage C, the usefulness of this criterion has not yet been determined. The combination of Braak's NFT stage equal to or above IV and Braak's senile plaque Stage C provides, arguably, the highest sensitivity and specificity. In future, the criteria should include in vivo dynamic neuropathological data, including 3D MRI, PET scan and CSF biomarkers, as well as more sensitive and specific immunohistochemical and immunochemical grading of AD.

Accounting for unsearched areas in estimating wind turbine-caused fatality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Dalthorp, Dan

2014-01-01

With wind energy production expanding rapidly, concerns about turbine-induced bird and bat fatality have grown and the demand for accurate estimation of fatality is increasing. Estimation typically involves counting carcasses observed below turbines and adjusting counts by estimated detection probabilities. Three primary sources of imperfect detection are 1) carcasses fall into unsearched areas, 2) carcasses are removed or destroyed before sampling, and 3) carcasses present in the searched area are missed by observers. Search plots large enough to comprise 100% of turbine-induced fatality are expensive to search and may nonetheless contain areas unsearchable because of dangerous terrain or impenetrable brush. We evaluated models relating carcass density to distance from the turbine to estimate the proportion of carcasses expected to fall in searched areas and evaluated the statistical cost of restricting searches to areas near turbines where carcass density is highest and search conditions optimal. We compared 5 estimators differing in assumptions about the relationship of carcass density to distance from the turbine. We tested them on 6 different carcass dispersion scenarios at each of 3 sites under 2 different search regimes. We found that even simple distance-based carcass-density models were more effective at reducing bias than was a 5-fold expansion of the search area. Estimators incorporating fitted rather than assumed models were least biased, even under restricted searches. Accurate estimates of fatality at wind-power facilities will allow critical comparisons of rates among turbines, sites, and regions and contribute to our understanding of the potential environmental impact of this technology.

Density probability distribution functions of diffuse gas in the Milky Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkhuijsen, E. M.; Fletcher, A.

2008-10-01

In a search for the signature of turbulence in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) in gas density distributions, we determined the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the average volume densities of the diffuse gas. The densities were derived from dispersion measures and HI column densities towards pulsars and stars at known distances. The PDFs of the average densities of the diffuse ionized gas (DIG) and the diffuse atomic gas are close to lognormal, especially when lines of sight at |b| < 5° and |b| >= 5° are considered separately. The PDF of at high |b| is twice as wide as that at low |b|. The width of the PDF of the DIG is about 30 per cent smaller than that of the warm HI at the same latitudes. The results reported here provide strong support for the existence of a lognormal density PDF in the diffuse ISM, consistent with a turbulent origin of density structure in the diffuse gas.

Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

PubMed

Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

Geotechnical parameter spatial distribution stochastic analysis based on multi-precision information assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

Spatial distribution of important geotechnical parameter named compression modulus Es contributes considerably to the understanding of the underlying geological processes and the adequate assessment of the Es mechanics effects for differential settlement of large continuous structure foundation. These analyses should be derived using an assimilating approach that combines in-situ static cone penetration test (CPT) with borehole experiments. To achieve such a task, the Es distribution of stratum of silty clay in region A of China Expo Center (Shanghai) is studied using the Bayesian-maximum entropy method. This method integrates rigorously and efficiently multi-precision of different geotechnical investigations and sources of uncertainty. Single CPT samplings were modeled as a rational probability density curve by maximum entropy theory. Spatial prior multivariate probability density function (PDF) and likelihood PDF of the CPT positions were built by borehole experiments and the potential value of the prediction point, then, preceding numerical integration on the CPT probability density curves, the posterior probability density curve of the prediction point would be calculated by the Bayesian reverse interpolation framework. The results were compared between Gaussian Sequential Stochastic Simulation and Bayesian methods. The differences were also discussed between single CPT samplings of normal distribution and simulated probability density curve based on maximum entropy theory. It is shown that the study of Es spatial distributions can be improved by properly incorporating CPT sampling variation into interpolation process, whereas more informative estimations are generated by considering CPT Uncertainty for the estimation points. Calculation illustrates the significance of stochastic Es characterization in a stratum, and identifies limitations associated with inadequate geostatistical interpolation techniques. This characterization results will provide a multi-precision information assimilation method of other geotechnical parameters.

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadini, A.; Bevilacqua, A.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bisson, M.; Isaia, R.; Mazzarini, F.; Valentine, G. A.; Vitale, S.; Baxter, P. J.; Bertagnini, A.; Cerminara, M.; de Michieli Vitturi, M.; Di Roberto, A.; Engwell, S.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Flandoli, F.; Pistolesi, M.

2017-06-01

In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long-term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma-Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium-large eruption will enlarge the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6-10%) that the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera.

Potential ecosystem service delivery by endemic plants in New Zealand vineyards: successes and prospects.

PubMed

Shields, Morgan W; Tompkins, Jean-Marie; Saville, David J; Meurk, Colin D; Wratten, Stephen

2016-01-01

Vineyards worldwide occupy over 7 million hectares and are typically virtual monocultures, with high and costly inputs of water and agro-chemicals. Understanding and enhancing ecosystem services can reduce inputs and their costs and help satisfy market demands for evidence of more sustainable practices. In this New Zealand work, low-growing, endemic plant species were evaluated for their potential benefits as Service Providing Units (SPUs) or Ecosystem Service Providers (ESPs). The services provided were weed suppression, conservation of beneficial invertebrates, soil moisture retention and microbial activity. The potential Ecosystem Dis-services (EDS) from the selected plant species by hosting the larvae of a key vine moth pest, the light-brown apple moth (Epiphyas postvittana), was also quantified. Questionnaires were used to evaluate winegrowers' perceptions of the value of and problems associated with such endemic plant species in their vineyards. Growth and survival rates of the 14 plant species, in eight families, were evaluated, with Leptinella dioica (Asteraceae) and Acaena inermis 'purpurea' (Rosaceae) having the highest growth rates in terms of area covered and the highest survival rate after 12 months. All 14 plant species suppressed weeds, with Leptinella squalida, Geranium sessiliforum (Geraniaceae), Hebe chathamica (Plantaginaceae), Scleranthus uniflorus (Caryophyllaceae) and L. dioica, each reducing weed cover by >95%. Plant species also differed in the diversity of arthropods that they supported, with the Shannon Wiener diversity index (H') for these taxa ranging from 0 to 1.3. G. sessiliforum and Muehlenbeckia axillaris (Polygonaceae) had the highest invertebrate diversity. Density of spiders was correlated with arthropod diversity and G. sessiliflorum and H. chathamica had the highest densities of these arthropods. Several plant species associated with higher soil moisture content than in control plots. The best performing species in this context were A. inermis 'purpurea' and Lobelia angulata (Lobeliaceae). Soil beneath all plant species had a higher microbial activity than in control plots, with L. dioica being highest in this respect. Survival proportion to the adult stage of the moth pest, E. postvittana, on all plant species was poor (<0.3). When judged by a ranking combining multiple criteria, the most promising plant species were (in decreasing order) G. sessiliflorum, A. inermis 'purpurea', H. chathamica, M. axillaris, L. dioica, L. angulata, L. squalida and S. uniflorus. Winegrowers surveyed said that they probably would deploy endemic plants around their vines. This research demonstrates that enhancing plant diversity in vineyards can deliver SPUs, harbour ESPs and therefore deliver ES. The data also shows that growers are willing to follow these protocols, with appropriate advice founded on sound research.

Irrigation dose and plant density affect the volatile composition and sensory quality of dill (Anethum graveolens L.).

PubMed

El-Zaeddi, Hussein; Martínez-Tomé, Juan; Calín-Sánchez, Ángel; Burló, Francisco; Carbonell-Barrachina, Ángel A

2017-01-01

Two independent field experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of (i) three irrigation treatments (ID0 = 1585 m 3 ha -1 , considered as a control; ID1 = 1015 m 3 ha -1 ; and ID2 = 2180 m 3 ha -1 ) and (ii) three plant density treatments (PD0 = 5.56 plants m -2 , considered as a control; PD1 = 4.44 plants m -2 ; and PD2 = 7.41 plants m -2 ) on the production, volatile composition of essential oil, and sensory quality of dill. The highest plant yield was obtained with intermediate conditions of both irrigation dose (ID0) and plant density (PD0). The main compounds of the essential oil were α-phellandrene, dill ether and β-phellandrene. The highest irrigation dose (ID2) produced the highest concentrations of most of the main compounds: α-phellandrene (49.5 mg per 100 g), β-phellandrene (6.89 mg per 100 g) and limonene (2.49 mg per 100 g). A similar pattern was found for the highest plant density (PD2): α-phellandrene (71.0 mg per 100 g), dill ether (16.7 mg per 100 g) and β-phellandrene (9.70 mg per 100 g). The use of descriptive sensory analysis helped in reaching a final decision, and the dill plants with the highest sensory quality were those of the ID2 and PD0 treatments. The final recommendation is to use the irrigation dose ID2 and the plant density PD2 if the objective is to produce dill samples with the highest aromatic and sensory quality; however, if the only objective is to produce high amounts of dill, the best options are ID0 and PD0. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Fractional Brownian motion with a reflecting wall.

PubMed

Wada, Alexander H O; Vojta, Thomas

2018-02-01

Fractional Brownian motion, a stochastic process with long-time correlations between its increments, is a prototypical model for anomalous diffusion. We analyze fractional Brownian motion in the presence of a reflecting wall by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Whereas the mean-square displacement of the particle shows the expected anomalous diffusion behavior 〈x^{2}〉∼t^{α}, the interplay between the geometric confinement and the long-time memory leads to a highly non-Gaussian probability density function with a power-law singularity at the barrier. In the superdiffusive case α>1, the particles accumulate at the barrier leading to a divergence of the probability density. For subdiffusion α<1, in contrast, the probability density is depleted close to the barrier. We discuss implications of these findings, in particular, for applications that are dominated by rare events.

Statistics of intensity in adaptive-optics images and their usefulness for detection and photometry of exoplanets.

PubMed

Gladysz, Szymon; Yaitskova, Natalia; Christou, Julian C

2010-11-01

This paper is an introduction to the problem of modeling the probability density function of adaptive-optics speckle. We show that with the modified Rician distribution one cannot describe the statistics of light on axis. A dual solution is proposed: the modified Rician distribution for off-axis speckle and gamma-based distribution for the core of the point spread function. From these two distributions we derive optimal statistical discriminators between real sources and quasi-static speckles. In the second part of the paper the morphological difference between the two probability density functions is used to constrain a one-dimensional, "blind," iterative deconvolution at the position of an exoplanet. Separation of the probability density functions of signal and speckle yields accurate differential photometry in our simulations of the SPHERE planet finder instrument.

Statistical analysis of corn consumption for improved mycotoxin exposure estimates for the population of Veracruz City, Mexico.

PubMed

Wall-Martínez, H A; Ramírez-Martínez, A; Wesolek, N; Brabet, C; Rodríguez-Jimenes, G C; García-Alvarado, M A; Salgado-Cervantes, M A; Robles-Olvera, V J; Roudot, A C

2017-05-01

Corn consumption was evaluated in the population of Veracruz City, Mexico, through two different dietary intake questionnaires. The selection of 300 sampling locations was completely random. The population was segregated into gender and age categories. A daily consumption questionnaire was used to determine the consumption of corn tortillas and a frequency questionnaire to determine the consumption of other corn products. A book of photographs was used to adjust criteria on the size of the portions of corn products and a probability distribution was built of the weight and content of corn for tortillas. Probability density functions (PDFs) were used to describe the consumption of each corn product. Men and those between 14 and 65 years old have the highest consumption of tortillas. Tortillas, antojitos, tacos and chilaquiles are the products that provide the largest amount of corn to the Veracruz people's diet. Even though these products are nixtamalisated, there is evidence that after a thermo-alkaline process some contaminants such as mycotoxins (like aflatoxin, which is a mutagenic, teratogenic and carcinogenic toxin) could be present in high concentrations. These results highlight the need to characterise the consumption of one of the main foods included in dietary staple in Mexico as a first step for a probabilistic risk assessment.

Estimating occupancy probability of moose using hunter survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crum, Nathan J.; Fuller, Angela K.; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Cooch, Evan G.; Hurst, Jeremy E.

2017-01-01

Monitoring rare species can be difficult, especially across large spatial extents, making conventional methods of population monitoring costly and logistically challenging. Citizen science has the potential to produce observational data across large areas that can be used to monitor wildlife distributions using occupancy models. We used citizen science (i.e., hunter surveys) to facilitate monitoring of moose (Alces alces) populations, an especially important endeavor because of their recent apparent declines in the northeastern and upper midwestern regions of the United States. To better understand patterns of occurrence of moose in New York, we used data collected through an annual survey of approximately 11,000 hunters between 2012 and 2014 that recorded detection–non-detection data of moose and other species. We estimated patterns of occurrence of moose in relation to land cover characteristics, climate effects, and interspecific interactions using occupancy models to analyze spatially referenced moose observations. Coniferous and deciduous forest with low prevalence of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) had the highest probability of moose occurrence. This study highlights the potential of data collected using citizen science for understanding the spatial distribution of low-density species across large spatial extents and providing key information regarding where and when future research and management activities should be focused.

Encircling the dark: constraining dark energy via cosmic density in spheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codis, S.; Pichon, C.; Bernardeau, F.; Uhlemann, C.; Prunet, S.

2016-08-01

The recently published analytic probability density function for the mildly non-linear cosmic density field within spherical cells is used to build a simple but accurate maximum likelihood estimate for the redshift evolution of the variance of the density, which, as expected, is shown to have smaller relative error than the sample variance. This estimator provides a competitive probe for the equation of state of dark energy, reaching a few per cent accuracy on wp and wa for a Euclid-like survey. The corresponding likelihood function can take into account the configuration of the cells via their relative separations. A code to compute one-cell-density probability density functions for arbitrary initial power spectrum, top-hat smoothing and various spherical-collapse dynamics is made available online, so as to provide straightforward means of testing the effect of alternative dark energy models and initial power spectra on the low-redshift matter distribution.

Study of the thermoelectric properties of lead selenide doped with boron, gallium, indium, or thallium.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Cao, Feng; Lukas, Kevin; Liu, Weishu; Esfarjani, Keivan; Opeil, Cyril; Broido, David; Parker, David; Singh, David J; Chen, Gang; Ren, Zhifeng

2012-10-24

Group IIIA elements (B, Ga, In, and Tl) have been doped into PbSe for enhancement of thermoelectric properties. The electrical conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity were systematically studied. Room-temperature Hall measurements showed an effective increase in the electron concentration upon both Ga and In doping and the hole concentration upon Tl doping to ~7 × 10(19) cm(-3). No resonant doping phenomenon was observed when PbSe was doped with B, Ga, or In. The highest room-temperature power factor ~2.5 × 10(-3) W m(-1) K(-2) was obtained for PbSe doped with 2 atom % B. However, the power factor in B-doped samples decreased with increasing temperature, opposite to the trend for the other dopants. A figure of merit (ZT) of ~1.2 at ~873 K was achieved in PbSe doped with 0.5 atom % Ga or In. With Tl doping, modification of the band structure around the Fermi level helped to increase the Seebeck coefficient, and the lattice thermal conductivity decreased, probably as a result of effective phonon scattering by both the heavy Tl(3+) ions and the increased grain boundary density after ball milling. The highest p-type ZT value was ~1.0 at ~723 K.

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.B.; Lafferty, K.D.; van, Oosterhout C.; Cable, J.

2011-01-01

Background: Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density. ?? 2011 Johnson et al.

Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

2011-01-01

Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

Randomized path optimization for thevMitigated counter detection of UAVS

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

using Bayesian filtering . The KL divergence is used to compare the probability density of aircraft termination to a normal distribution around the...Bayesian filtering . The KL divergence is used to compare the probability density of aircraft termination to a normal distribution around the true terminal...algorithm’s success. A recursive Bayesian filtering scheme is used to assimilate noisy measurements of the UAVs position to predict its terminal location. We

Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Mike

2017-01-01

Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.

Wavefronts, actions and caustics determined by the probability density of an Airy beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espíndola-Ramos, Ernesto; Silva-Ortigoza, Gilberto; Sosa-Sánchez, Citlalli Teresa; Julián-Macías, Israel; de Jesús Cabrera-Rosas, Omar; Ortega-Vidals, Paula; Alejandro Juárez-Reyes, Salvador; González-Juárez, Adriana; Silva-Ortigoza, Ramón

2018-07-01

The main contribution of the present work is to use the probability density of an Airy beam to identify its maxima with the family of caustics associated with the wavefronts determined by the level curves of a one-parameter family of solutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi equation with a given potential. To this end, we give a classical mechanics characterization of a solution of the one-dimensional Schrödinger equation in free space determined by a complete integral of the Hamilton–Jacobi and Laplace equations in free space. That is, with this type of solution, we associate a two-parameter family of wavefronts in the spacetime, which are the level curves of a one-parameter family of solutions to the Hamilton–Jacobi equation with a determined potential, and a one-parameter family of caustics. The general results are applied to an Airy beam to show that the maxima of its probability density provide a discrete set of: caustics, wavefronts and potentials. The results presented here are a natural generalization of those obtained by Berry and Balazs in 1979 for an Airy beam. Finally, we remark that, in a natural manner, each maxima of the probability density of an Airy beam determines a Hamiltonian system.

In vitro growth of Curcuma longa L. in response to five mineral elements and plant density in fed-batch culture systems.

PubMed

El-Hawaz, Rabia F; Bridges, William C; Adelberg, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Plant density was varied with P, Ca, Mg, and KNO3 in a multifactor experiment to improve Curcuma longa L. micropropagation, biomass and microrhizome development in fed-batch liquid culture. The experiment had two paired D-optimal designs, testing sucrose fed-batch and nutrient sucrose fed-batch techniques. When sucrose became depleted, volume was restored to 5% m/v sucrose in 200 ml of modified liquid MS medium by adding sucrose solutions. Similarly, nutrient sucrose fed-batch was restored to set points with double concentration of treatments' macronutrient and MS micronutrient solutions, along with sucrose solutions. Changes in the amounts of water and sucrose supplementations were driven by the interaction of P and KNO3 concentrations. Increasing P from 1.25 to 6.25 mM increased both multiplication and biomass. The multiplication ratio was greatest in the nutrient sucrose fed-batch technique with the highest level of P, 6 buds/vessel, and the lowest level of Ca and KNO3. The highest density (18 buds/vessel) produced the highest fresh biomass at the highest concentrations of KNO3 and P with nutrient sucrose fed-batch, and moderate Ca and Mg concentrations. However, maximal rhizome dry biomass required highest P, sucrose fed-batch, and a moderate plant density. Different media formulations and fed-batch techniques were identified to maximize the propagation and storage organ responses. A single experimental design was used to optimize these dual purposes.

In Vitro Growth of Curcuma longa L. in Response to Five Mineral Elements and Plant Density in Fed-Batch Culture Systems

PubMed Central

El-Hawaz, Rabia F.; Bridges, William C.; Adelberg, Jeffrey W.

2015-01-01

Plant density was varied with P, Ca, Mg, and KNO3 in a multifactor experiment to improve Curcuma longa L. micropropagation, biomass and microrhizome development in fed-batch liquid culture. The experiment had two paired D-optimal designs, testing sucrose fed-batch and nutrient sucrose fed-batch techniques. When sucrose became depleted, volume was restored to 5% m/v sucrose in 200 ml of modified liquid MS medium by adding sucrose solutions. Similarly, nutrient sucrose fed-batch was restored to set points with double concentration of treatments’ macronutrient and MS micronutrient solutions, along with sucrose solutions. Changes in the amounts of water and sucrose supplementations were driven by the interaction of P and KNO3 concentrations. Increasing P from 1.25 to 6.25 mM increased both multiplication and biomass. The multiplication ratio was greatest in the nutrient sucrose fed-batch technique with the highest level of P, 6 buds/vessel, and the lowest level of Ca and KNO3. The highest density (18 buds/vessel) produced the highest fresh biomass at the highest concentrations of KNO3 and P with nutrient sucrose fed-batch, and moderate Ca and Mg concentrations. However, maximal rhizome dry biomass required highest P, sucrose fed-batch, and a moderate plant density. Different media formulations and fed-batch techniques were identified to maximize the propagation and storage organ responses. A single experimental design was used to optimize these dual purposes. PMID:25830292

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of nucleation and growth in electrodeposition.

PubMed

Guo, Lian; Radisic, Aleksandar; Searson, Peter C

2005-12-22

Nucleation and growth during bulk electrodeposition is studied using kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. Ion transport in solution is modeled using Brownian dynamics, and the kinetics of nucleation and growth are dependent on the probabilities of metal-on-substrate and metal-on-metal deposition. Using this approach, we make no assumptions about the nucleation rate, island density, or island distribution. The influence of the attachment probabilities and concentration on the time-dependent island density and current transients is reported. Various models have been assessed by recovering the nucleation rate and island density from the current-time transients.

Urban green space and obesity in older adults: Evidence from Ireland.

PubMed

Dempsey, Seraphim; Lyons, Seán; Nolan, Anne

2018-04-01

We examine the association between living in an urban area with more or less green space and the probability of being obese. This work involves the creation of a new dataset which combines geo-coded data at the individual level from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing with green space data from the European Urban Atlas 2012. We find evidence suggestive of a u-shaped relationship between green space in urban areas and obesity; those living in areas with the lowest and highest shares of green space within a 1.6 km buffer zone have a higher probability of being classified as obese (BMI [Formula: see text]). The unexpected result that persons in areas with both the lowest and highest shares of green space have a higher probability of being obese than those in areas with intermediate shares, suggests that other characteristics of urban areas may be mediating this relationship.

Cetacean population density estimation from single fixed sensors using passive acoustics.

PubMed

Küsel, Elizabeth T; Mellinger, David K; Thomas, Len; Marques, Tiago A; Moretti, David; Ward, Jessica

2011-06-01

Passive acoustic methods are increasingly being used to estimate animal population density. Most density estimation methods are based on estimates of the probability of detecting calls as functions of distance. Typically these are obtained using receivers capable of localizing calls or from studies of tagged animals. However, both approaches are expensive to implement. The approach described here uses a MonteCarlo model to estimate the probability of detecting calls from single sensors. The passive sonar equation is used to predict signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of received clicks, which are then combined with a detector characterization that predicts probability of detection as a function of SNR. Input distributions for source level, beam pattern, and whale depth are obtained from the literature. Acoustic propagation modeling is used to estimate transmission loss. Other inputs for density estimation are call rate, obtained from the literature, and false positive rate, obtained from manual analysis of a data sample. The method is applied to estimate density of Blainville's beaked whales over a 6-day period around a single hydrophone located in the Tongue of the Ocean, Bahamas. Results are consistent with those from previous analyses, which use additional tag data. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Characterization of zirconium carbides using electron microscopy, optical anisotropy, Auger depth profiles, X-ray diffraction, and electron density calculated by charge flipping method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chinthaka Silva, G.W., E-mail: chinthaka.silva@gmail.com; Kercher, Andrew A., E-mail: rokparent@comcast.net; Hunn, John D., E-mail: hunnjd@ornl.gov

2012-10-15

Samples with five different zirconium carbide compositions (C/Zr molar ratio=0.84, 0.89, 0.95, 1.05, and 1.17) have been fabricated and studied using a variety of experimental techniques. Each sample was zone refined to ensure that the end product was polycrystalline with a grain size of 10-100 {mu}m. It was found that the lattice parameter was largest for the x=0.89 composition and smallest for the x=1.17 total C/Zr composition, but was not linear; this nonlinearity is possibly explained using electron densities calculated using charge flipping technique. Among the five samples, the unit cell of the ZrC{sub 0.89} sample showed the highest electronmore » density, corresponding to the highest carbon incorporation and the largest lattice parameter. The ZrC{sub 0.84} sample showed the lowest carbon incorporation, resulting in a larger number of carbon vacancies and resultant strain. Samples with larger carbon ratios (x=0.95, 1.05, and 1.17) showed a slight decrease in lattice parameter, due to a decrease in electron density. Optical anisotropy measurements suggest that these three samples contained significant amounts of a graphitic carbon phase, not bonded to the Zr atoms. - Graphical abstract: Characterization of zirconium carbides using electron microscopy, optical anisotropy, Auger depth profiles, X-ray diffraction, and electron density calculated by the charge flipping method. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The lattice parameter variation: ZrC{sub 0.89}>ZrC{sub 0.84}>ZrC{sub 0.95}>ZrC{sub 1.05}>ZrC{sub 1.17}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Surface oxygen with no correlation to the lattice parameter variation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer ZrC{sub 0.89} had highest electron densities correspond to highest carbon incorporation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Second highest lattice parameter in ZrC{sub 0.84} due to strain. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Unit cell electron density order: ZrC{sub 0.95}>ZrC{sub 1.05}>ZrC{sub 1.17}.« less

Oak regeneration and overstory density in the Missouri Ozarks

Treesearch

David R. Larsen; Monte A. Metzger

1997-01-01

Reducing overstory density is a commonly recommended method of increasing the regeneration potential of oak (Quercus) forests. However, recommendations seldom specify the probable increase in density or the size of reproduction associated with a given residual overstory density. This paper presents logistic regression models that describe this...

A comparison of five methods of measuring mammographic density: a case-control study.

PubMed

Astley, Susan M; Harkness, Elaine F; Sergeant, Jamie C; Warwick, Jane; Stavrinos, Paula; Warren, Ruth; Wilson, Mary; Beetles, Ursula; Gadde, Soujanya; Lim, Yit; Jain, Anil; Bundred, Sara; Barr, Nicola; Reece, Valerie; Brentnall, Adam R; Cuzick, Jack; Howell, Tony; Evans, D Gareth

2018-02-05

High mammographic density is associated with both risk of cancers being missed at mammography, and increased risk of developing breast cancer. Stratification of breast cancer prevention and screening requires mammographic density measures predictive of cancer. This study compares five mammographic density measures to determine the association with subsequent diagnosis of breast cancer and the presence of breast cancer at screening. Women participating in the "Predicting Risk Of Cancer At Screening" (PROCAS) study, a study of cancer risk, completed questionnaires to provide personal information to enable computation of the Tyrer-Cuzick risk score. Mammographic density was assessed by visual analogue scale (VAS), thresholding (Cumulus) and fully-automated methods (Densitas, Quantra, Volpara) in contralateral breasts of 366 women with unilateral breast cancer (cases) detected at screening on entry to the study (Cumulus 311/366) and in 338 women with cancer detected subsequently. Three controls per case were matched using age, body mass index category, hormone replacement therapy use and menopausal status. Odds ratios (OR) between the highest and lowest quintile, based on the density distribution in controls, for each density measure were estimated by conditional logistic regression, adjusting for classic risk factors. The strongest predictor of screen-detected cancer at study entry was VAS, OR 4.37 (95% CI 2.72-7.03) in the highest vs lowest quintile of percent density after adjustment for classical risk factors. Volpara, Densitas and Cumulus gave ORs for the highest vs lowest quintile of 2.42 (95% CI 1.56-3.78), 2.17 (95% CI 1.41-3.33) and 2.12 (95% CI 1.30-3.45), respectively. Quantra was not significantly associated with breast cancer (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.54). Similar results were found for subsequent cancers, with ORs of 4.48 (95% CI 2.79-7.18), 2.87 (95% CI 1.77-4.64) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.50-3.68) in highest vs lowest quintiles of VAS, Volpara and Densitas, respectively. Quantra gave an OR in the highest vs lowest quintile of 1.32 (95% CI 0.85-2.05). Visual density assessment demonstrated a strong relationship with cancer, despite known inter-observer variability; however, it is impractical for population-based screening. Percentage density measured by Volpara and Densitas also had a strong association with breast cancer risk, amongst the automated measures evaluated, providing practical automated methods for risk stratification.

Aging ballistic Lévy walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdziarz, Marcin; Zorawik, Tomasz

2017-02-01

Aging can be observed for numerous physical systems. In such systems statistical properties [like probability distribution, mean square displacement (MSD), first-passage time] depend on a time span ta between the initialization and the beginning of observations. In this paper we study aging properties of ballistic Lévy walks and two closely related jump models: wait-first and jump-first. We calculate explicitly their probability distributions and MSDs. It turns out that despite similarities these models react very differently to the delay ta. Aging weakly affects the shape of probability density function and MSD of standard Lévy walks. For the jump models the shape of the probability density function is changed drastically. Moreover for the wait-first jump model we observe a different behavior of MSD when ta≪t and ta≫t .

On Orbital Elements of Extrasolar Planetary Candidates and Spectroscopic Binaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepinski, T. F.; Black, D. C.

2001-01-01

We estimate probability densities of orbital elements, periods, and eccentricities, for the population of extrasolar planetary candidates (EPC) and, separately, for the population of spectroscopic binaries (SB) with solar-type primaries. We construct empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) in order to infer probability distribution functions (PDFs) for orbital periods and eccentricities. We also derive a joint probability density for period-eccentricity pairs in each population. Comparison of respective distributions reveals that in all cases EPC and SB populations are, in the context of orbital elements, indistinguishable from each other to a high degree of statistical significance. Probability densities of orbital periods in both populations have P(exp -1) functional form, whereas the PDFs of eccentricities can he best characterized as a Gaussian with a mean of about 0.35 and standard deviation of about 0.2 turning into a flat distribution at small values of eccentricity. These remarkable similarities between EPC and SB must be taken into account by theories aimed at explaining the origin of extrasolar planetary candidates, and constitute an important clue us to their ultimate nature.

Benchmarks for detecting 'breakthroughs' in clinical trials: empirical assessment of the probability of large treatment effects using kernel density estimation.

PubMed

Miladinovic, Branko; Kumar, Ambuj; Mhaskar, Rahul; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2014-10-21

To understand how often 'breakthroughs,' that is, treatments that significantly improve health outcomes, can be developed. We applied weighted adaptive kernel density estimation to construct the probability density function for observed treatment effects from five publicly funded cohorts and one privately funded group. 820 trials involving 1064 comparisons and enrolling 331,004 patients were conducted by five publicly funded cooperative groups. 40 cancer trials involving 50 comparisons and enrolling a total of 19,889 patients were conducted by GlaxoSmithKline. We calculated that the probability of detecting treatment with large effects is 10% (5-25%), and that the probability of detecting treatment with very large treatment effects is 2% (0.3-10%). Researchers themselves judged that they discovered a new, breakthrough intervention in 16% of trials. We propose these figures as the benchmarks against which future development of 'breakthrough' treatments should be measured. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

On the joint spectral density of bivariate random sequences. Thesis Technical Report No. 21

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aalfs, David D.

1995-01-01

For univariate random sequences, the power spectral density acts like a probability density function of the frequencies present in the sequence. This dissertation extends that concept to bivariate random sequences. For this purpose, a function called the joint spectral density is defined that represents a joint probability weighing of the frequency content of pairs of random sequences. Given a pair of random sequences, the joint spectral density is not uniquely determined in the absence of any constraints. Two approaches to constraining the sequences are suggested: (1) assume the sequences are the margins of some stationary random field, (2) assume the sequences conform to a particular model that is linked to the joint spectral density. For both approaches, the properties of the resulting sequences are investigated in some detail, and simulation is used to corroborate theoretical results. It is concluded that under either of these two constraints, the joint spectral density can be computed from the non-stationary cross-correlation.

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pospahala, Richard S.; Anderson, David R.; Henny, Charles J.

1974-01-01

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area. Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area, these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballentine, Leslie E.

2016-08-01

Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

On the road to self-sputtering in high power impulse magnetron sputtering: particle balance and discharge characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Chunqing; Lundin, Daniel; Raadu, Michael A.; Anders, André; Tomas Gudmundsson, Jon; Brenning, Nils

2014-04-01

The onset and development of self-sputtering (SS) in a high power impulse magnetron sputtering (HiPIMS) discharge have been studied using a plasma chemical model and a set of experimental data, taken with an aluminum target and argon gas. The model is tailored to duplicate the discharge in which the data are taken. The pulses are long enough to include both an initial transient and a following steady state. The model is used to unravel how the internal discharge physics evolves with pulse power and time, and how it is related to features in the discharge current-voltage-time characteristics such as current densities, maxima, kinks and slopes. The connection between the self-sputter process and the discharge characteristics is quantified and discussed in terms of three parameters: a critical target current density Jcrit based on the maximum refill rate of process (argon) gas above the target, an SS recycling factor ΠSS-recycle, and an approximation \\tilde{\\alpha} of the probabilities of ionization of species that come from the target (both sputtered metal and embedded argon atoms). For low power pulses, discharge voltages UD ⩽ 380 V with peak current densities below ≈ 0.2 A cm-2, the discharge is found to be dominated by process gas sputtering. In these pulses there is an initial current peak in time, associated with partial gas rarefaction, which is followed by a steady-state-like plateau in all parameters similar to direct current magnetron sputtering. In contrast, high power pulses, with UD ⩾ 500 V and peak current densities above JD ≈ 1.6 A cm-2, make a transition to a discharge mode where SS dominates. The transition is found not to be driven by process gas rarefaction which is only about 10% at this time. Maximum gas rarefaction is found later in time and always after the initial peak in the discharge current. With increasing voltage, and pulse power, the discharge can be described as following a route where the role of SS increases in four steps: process gas sputtering, gas-sustained SS, self-sustained SS and SS runaway. At the highest voltage, 1000 V, the discharge is very close to, but does not go into, the SS runaway mode. This absence of runaway is proposed to be connected to an unexpected finding: that twice ionized ions of the target species play almost no role in this discharge, not even at the highest powers. This reduces ionization by secondary-emitted energetic electrons almost to zero in the highest power range of the discharge.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-01-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-08-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

The non-Gaussian joint probability density function of slope and elevation for a nonlinear gravity wave field. [in ocean surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.; Bliven, L. F.; Tung, C.-C.

1984-01-01

On the basis of the mapping method developed by Huang et al. (1983), an analytic expression for the non-Gaussian joint probability density function of slope and elevation for nonlinear gravity waves is derived. Various conditional and marginal density functions are also obtained through the joint density function. The analytic results are compared with a series of carefully controlled laboratory observations, and good agreement is noted. Furthermore, the laboratory wind wave field observations indicate that the capillary or capillary-gravity waves may not be the dominant components in determining the total roughness of the wave field. Thus, the analytic results, though derived specifically for the gravity waves, may have more general applications.

Estimation of the four-wave mixing noise probability-density function by the multicanonical Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Neokosmidis, Ioannis; Kamalakis, Thomas; Chipouras, Aristides; Sphicopoulos, Thomas

2005-01-01

The performance of high-powered wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) optical networks can be severely degraded by four-wave-mixing- (FWM-) induced distortion. The multicanonical Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is used to calculate the probability-density function (PDF) of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM noise. Compared with the conventional Monte Carlo method previously used to estimate this PDF, the MCMC method is much faster and can accurately estimate smaller error probabilities. The method takes into account the correlation between the components of the FWM noise, unlike the Gaussian model, which is shown not to provide accurate results.

Effect of Non-speckle Echo Signals on Tissue Characteristics for Liver Fibrosis using Probability Density Function of Ultrasonic B-mode image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Shohei; Hirata, Shinnosuke; Yamaguchi, Tadashi; Hachiya, Hiroyuki

To develop a quantitative diagnostic method for liver fibrosis using an ultrasound B-mode image, a probability imaging method of tissue characteristics based on a multi-Rayleigh model, which expresses a probability density function of echo signals from liver fibrosis, has been proposed. In this paper, an effect of non-speckle echo signals on tissue characteristics estimated from the multi-Rayleigh model was evaluated. Non-speckle signals were determined and removed using the modeling error of the multi-Rayleigh model. The correct tissue characteristics of fibrotic tissue could be estimated with the removal of non-speckle signals.

Laboratory-Tutorial Activities for Teaching Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

2006-01-01

We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called "Intuitive Quantum Physics". Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We…

Stream permanence influences crayfish occupancy and abundance in the Ozark Highlands, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yarra, Allyson N.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Crayfish use of intermittent streams is especially important to understand in the face of global climate change. We examined the influence of stream permanence and local habitat on crayfish occupancy and species densities in the Ozark Highlands, USA. We sampled in June and July 2014 and 2015. We used a quantitative kick–seine method to sample crayfish presence and abundance at 20 stream sites with 32 surveys/site in the Upper White River drainage, and we measured associated local environmental variables each year. We modeled site occupancy and detection probabilities with the software PRESENCE, and we used multiple linear regressions to identify relationships between crayfish species densities and environmental variables. Occupancy of all crayfish species was related to stream permanence. Faxonius meeki was found exclusively in intermittent streams, whereas Faxonius neglectus and Faxonius luteushad higher occupancy and detection probability in permanent than in intermittent streams, and Faxonius williamsi was associated with intermittent streams. Estimates of detection probability ranged from 0.56 to 1, which is high relative to values found by other investigators. With the exception of F. williamsi, species densities were largely related to stream permanence rather than local habitat. Species densities did not differ by year, but total crayfish densities were significantly lower in 2015 than 2014. Increased precipitation and discharge in 2015 probably led to the lower crayfish densities observed during this year. Our study demonstrates that crayfish distribution and abundance is strongly influenced by stream permanence. Some species, including those of conservation concern (i.e., F. williamsi, F. meeki), appear dependent on intermittent streams, and conservation efforts should include consideration of intermittent streams as an important component of freshwater biodiversity.

Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClung, David

2013-04-01

Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles, the risk analysis showed there are two ranges: ˜ 320; × 460for which risk is lowest. In this case, both the range of and the consequences vary by about a factor of two so the probability of release dominates the risk analysis to yield low risk at the tails of the distribution of with highest risk in the middle (330 - 450) of the expected range (250 - 550).

Derivation of an eigenvalue probability density function relating to the Poincaré disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forrester, Peter J.; Krishnapur, Manjunath

2009-09-01

A result of Zyczkowski and Sommers (2000 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 33 2045-57) gives the eigenvalue probability density function for the top N × N sub-block of a Haar distributed matrix from U(N + n). In the case n >= N, we rederive this result, starting from knowledge of the distribution of the sub-blocks, introducing the Schur decomposition and integrating over all variables except the eigenvalues. The integration is done by identifying a recursive structure which reduces the dimension. This approach is inspired by an analogous approach which has been recently applied to determine the eigenvalue probability density function for random matrices A-1B, where A and B are random matrices with entries standard complex normals. We relate the eigenvalue distribution of the sub-blocks to a many-body quantum state, and to the one-component plasma, on the pseudosphere.

A very efficient approach to compute the first-passage probability density function in a time-changed Brownian model: Applications in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Pacelli, Graziella; Radi, Davide

2016-12-01

We propose a numerical method to compute the first-passage probability density function in a time-changed Brownian model. In particular, we derive an integral representation of such a density function in which the integrand functions must be obtained solving a system of Volterra equations of the first kind. In addition, we develop an ad-hoc numerical procedure to regularize and solve this system of integral equations. The proposed method is tested on three application problems of interest in mathematical finance, namely the calculation of the survival probability of an indebted firm, the pricing of a single-knock-out put option and the pricing of a double-knock-out put option. The results obtained reveal that the novel approach is extremely accurate and fast, and performs significantly better than the finite difference method.

Committor of elementary reactions on multistate systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Király, Péter; Kiss, Dóra Judit; Tóth, Gergely

2018-04-01

In our study, we extend the committor concept on multi-minima systems, where more than one reaction may proceed, but the feasible data evaluation needs the projection onto partial reactions. The elementary reaction committor and the corresponding probability density of the reactive trajectories are defined and calculated on a three-hole two-dimensional model system explored by single-particle Langevin dynamics. We propose a method to visualize more elementary reaction committor functions or probability densities of reactive trajectories on a single plot that helps to identify the most important reaction channels and the nonreactive domains simultaneously. We suggest a weighting for the energy-committor plots that correctly shows the limits of both the minimal energy path and the average energy concepts. The methods also performed well on the analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories of 2-chlorobutane, where an elementary reaction committor, the probability densities, the potential energy/committor, and the free-energy/committor curves are presented.

A MATLAB implementation of the minimum relative entropy method for linear inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupauer, Roseanna M.; Borchers, Brian

2001-08-01

The minimum relative entropy (MRE) method can be used to solve linear inverse problems of the form Gm= d, where m is a vector of unknown model parameters and d is a vector of measured data. The MRE method treats the elements of m as random variables, and obtains a multivariate probability density function for m. The probability density function is constrained by prior information about the upper and lower bounds of m, a prior expected value of m, and the measured data. The solution of the inverse problem is the expected value of m, based on the derived probability density function. We present a MATLAB implementation of the MRE method. Several numerical issues arise in the implementation of the MRE method and are discussed here. We present the source history reconstruction problem from groundwater hydrology as an example of the MRE implementation.

[Faunal characteristics and distribution pattern of crustaceans in the vicinity of Pearl River estuary].

PubMed

Huang, Zi-Rong; Sun, Dian-Rong; Chen, Zuo-Zhi; Zhang, Han-Hua; Wang, Xue-Hui; Wang, Yue-Zhong; Fang, Hong-Da; Dong, Yan-Hong

2009-10-01

Based on the data of bottom trawl surveys in the vicinity of Pearl River estuary in August (summer), October (autumn), December (winter) 2006, and April (spring) 2007, the faunal characteristics and distribution pattern of crustaceans were analyzed. A total of 54 species belonging to 25 genera, 17 families, and 2 orders were collected, including 22 species of shrimps, 22 species of crabs, and 10 species of squills. Most of the crustaceans were tropical-subtropical warm-water species, a few of them were eurythermal species, and no warm-water and cold-water species occurred. Euryhaline species were most abundant, followed by halophile species, and the low-salinity species were the least. Most of the crustacean species belonged to the fauna of Indian Ocean-western Pacific Ocean. The faunal assemblages were closer to those of the East China Sea, Philippine Sea, Indonesia Sea, and the Japan Sea, and estranger with those of the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea, and Korea Sea. The dominant species were Metapenaeus joyner, Oratosquilla oratoria, Charybdis miles, Portunus sanguinolentus, Harpiosquilla harpax, Charybdis feriatus, Charybdis japonica, Oratosquilla nepa, Solenocera crassicornis, Portunus trituberculatus, and Calappa philargius. The crustaceans had the largest species number (33) in autumn and the least one (26) in spring, and the highest stock density at the water depth of < 40 m, especially at 10-20 m. The average stock density of the crustaceans was estimated to be 99.60 kg x km(-2), with the highest (198.93 kg x km(-2)) in summer and the lowest (42.35 kg x km(-2)) in spring. Of the 3 species groups, crabs had the highest stock density (41.81 kg x km(-2)), followed by shrimps (38.91 kg x km(-2)), and squills (18.88 kg x km(-2)). The stock densities of the 3 species groups showed an obvious seasonal variation. Shrimps had the highest stock density (120.32 kg x km(-2)) in summer and the lowest density (0.67 kg x km(-2)) in spring, while crabs and squills had the highest density (62.01 and 29.49 kg x km(-2), respectively) in winter and the lowest density (24.64 and 6.30 kg x km(-2), respectively) in autumn.

SU-G-JeP2-02: A Unifying Multi-Atlas Approach to Electron Density Mapping Using Multi-Parametric MRI for Radiation Treatment Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, S; Tianjin University, Tianjin; Hara, W

Purpose: MRI has a number of advantages over CT as a primary modality for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, one key bottleneck problem still remains, which is the lack of electron density information in MRI. In the work, a reliable method to map electron density is developed by leveraging the differential contrast of multi-parametric MRI. Methods: We propose a probabilistic Bayesian approach for electron density mapping based on T1 and T2-weighted MRI, using multiple patients as atlases. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probabilities: (1) electron density given its image intensity on T1 and T2-weighted MR images, and (2)more » electron density given its geometric location in a reference anatomy. The two sources of information (image intensity and spatial location) are combined into a unifying posterior probability density function using the Bayesian formalism. The mean value of the posterior probability density function provides the estimated electron density. Results: We evaluated the method on 10 head and neck patients and performed leave-one-out cross validation (9 patients as atlases and remaining 1 as test). The proposed method significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 138, compared with 193 for the T1-weighted intensity approach and 261 without density correction. For bone detection (HU>200), the proposed method had an accuracy of 84% and a sensitivity of 73% at specificity of 90% (AUC = 87%). In comparison, the AUC for bone detection is 73% and 50% using the intensity approach and without density correction, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed unifying method provides accurate electron density estimation and bone detection based on multi-parametric MRI of the head with highly heterogeneous anatomy. This could allow for accurate dose calculation and reference image generation for patient setup in MRI-based radiation treatment planning.« less

Can we estimate molluscan abundance and biomass on the continental shelf?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Eric N.; Mann, Roger; Ashton-Alcox, Kathryn A.; Kuykendall, Kelsey M.; Chase Long, M.

2017-11-01

Few empirical studies have focused on the effect of sample density on the estimate of abundance of the dominant carbonate-producing fauna of the continental shelf. Here, we present such a study and consider the implications of suboptimal sampling design on estimates of abundance and size-frequency distribution. We focus on a principal carbonate producer of the U.S. Atlantic continental shelf, the Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima. To evaluate the degree to which the results are typical, we analyze a dataset for the principal carbonate producer of Mid-Atlantic estuaries, the Eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, obtained from Delaware Bay. These two species occupy different habitats and display different lifestyles, yet demonstrate similar challenges to survey design and similar trends with sampling density. The median of a series of simulated survey mean abundances, the central tendency obtained over a large number of surveys of the same area, always underestimated true abundance at low sample densities. More dramatic were the trends in the probability of a biased outcome. As sample density declined, the probability of a survey availability event, defined as a survey yielding indices >125% or <75% of the true population abundance, increased and that increase was disproportionately biased towards underestimates. For these cases where a single sample accessed about 0.001-0.004% of the domain, 8-15 random samples were required to reduce the probability of a survey availability event below 40%. The problem of differential bias, in which the probabilities of a biased-high and a biased-low survey index were distinctly unequal, was resolved with fewer samples than the problem of overall bias. These trends suggest that the influence of sampling density on survey design comes with a series of incremental challenges. At woefully inadequate sampling density, the probability of a biased-low survey index will substantially exceed the probability of a biased-high index. The survey time series on the average will return an estimate of the stock that underestimates true stock abundance. If sampling intensity is increased, the frequency of biased indices balances between high and low values. Incrementing sample number from this point steadily reduces the likelihood of a biased survey; however, the number of samples necessary to drive the probability of survey availability events to a preferred level of infrequency may be daunting. Moreover, certain size classes will be disproportionately susceptible to such events and the impact on size frequency will be species specific, depending on the relative dispersion of the size classes.

Automated side-chain model building and sequence assignment by template matching.

PubMed

Terwilliger, Thomas C

2003-01-01

An algorithm is described for automated building of side chains in an electron-density map once a main-chain model is built and for alignment of the protein sequence to the map. The procedure is based on a comparison of electron density at the expected side-chain positions with electron-density templates. The templates are constructed from average amino-acid side-chain densities in 574 refined protein structures. For each contiguous segment of main chain, a matrix with entries corresponding to an estimate of the probability that each of the 20 amino acids is located at each position of the main-chain model is obtained. The probability that this segment corresponds to each possible alignment with the sequence of the protein is estimated using a Bayesian approach and high-confidence matches are kept. Once side-chain identities are determined, the most probable rotamer for each side chain is built into the model. The automated procedure has been implemented in the RESOLVE software. Combined with automated main-chain model building, the procedure produces a preliminary model suitable for refinement and extension by an experienced crystallographer.

Simulations of Spray Reacting Flows in a Single Element LDI Injector With and Without Invoking an Eulerian Scalar PDF Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey

2012-01-01

This paper presents the numerical simulations of the Jet-A spray reacting flow in a single element lean direct injection (LDI) injector by using the National Combustion Code (NCC) with and without invoking the Eulerian scalar probability density function (PDF) method. The flow field is calculated by using the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS and URANS) with nonlinear turbulence models, and when the scalar PDF method is invoked, the energy and compositions or species mass fractions are calculated by solving the equation of an ensemble averaged density-weighted fine-grained probability density function that is referred to here as the averaged probability density function (APDF). A nonlinear model for closing the convection term of the scalar APDF equation is used in the presented simulations and will be briefly described. Detailed comparisons between the results and available experimental data are carried out. Some positive findings of invoking the Eulerian scalar PDF method in both improving the simulation quality and reducing the computing cost are observed.

The Havriliak-Negami relaxation and its relatives: the response, relaxation and probability density functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Górska, K.; Horzela, A.; Bratek, Ł.; Dattoli, G.; Penson, K. A.

2018-04-01

We study functions related to the experimentally observed Havriliak-Negami dielectric relaxation pattern proportional in the frequency domain to [1+(iωτ0){\\hspace{0pt}}α]-β with τ0 > 0 being some characteristic time. For α = l/k< 1 (l and k being positive and relatively prime integers) and β > 0 we furnish exact and explicit expressions for response and relaxation functions in the time domain and suitable probability densities in their domain dual in the sense of the inverse Laplace transform. All these functions are expressed as finite sums of generalized hypergeometric functions, convenient to handle analytically and numerically. Introducing a reparameterization β = (2-q)/(q-1) and τ0 = (q-1){\\hspace{0pt}}1/α (1 < q < 2) we show that for 0 < α < 1 the response functions fα, β(t/τ0) go to the one-sided Lévy stable distributions when q tends to one. Moreover, applying the self-similarity property of the probability densities gα, β(u) , we introduce two-variable densities and show that they satisfy the integral form of the evolution equation.

Spawning areas of Engraulis anchoita in the Southeastern Brazilian Bight during late-spring and early summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Favero, Jana M.; Katsuragawa, Mario; Zani-Teixeira, Maria de Lourdes; Turner, Jefferson T.

2017-04-01

Analysis of fish egg density and distribution is indispensable for the understanding of the adult stock variability, and is a powerful tool for fisheries management. Thus, the objective of the present study was to characterize the spatial-temporal spawning patterns of Engraulis anchoita in the Southeastern Brazilian Bight, in terms of geographic location and abiotic factors. We analyzed data of eggs sampled during ten years, from 1974 to 1993, to create maps of the mean and the standard deviation (sd) of the estimated probability of egg presence, through indicative kriging. Preferred, tolerated and avoided temperature, salinity, local depth and distance for spawning of E. anchoita were defined by the estimation of bootstrapped confidence intervals of the quotient values (Q). Despite not having identified any recurrent spawning sites, a few occasional and unfavorable spawning sites were identified, showing that the spawning habit of E. anchoita not only varied spatially, but also temporally. The largest occasional spawning site and with the highest probability of egg presence (0.6-0.7) was located around 27°S, close to Florianópolis (Santa Catarina state). On the other hand, a well-marked unfavorable spawning site was located off São Sebastião Island (São Paulo state), with the probability of egg presence between 0-0.1. Abiotic and biotic factors that could be related to the changes in the spawning areas of E. anchoita were discussed, with shelf width, mesoscale hydrodynamic features and biological interactions apparently playing important roles in defining spawning sites.

Densities inferred from ESA's Venus Express aerobraking campaign at 130 km altitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruinsma, Sean; Marty, Jean-Charles; Svedhem, Håkan; Williams, Adam; Mueller-Wodarg, Ingo

2015-04-01

In June-July 2014, ESA performed a planned aerobraking campaign with Venus Express to measure neutral densities above 130 km in Venus' atmosphere by means of the engineering accelerometers. To that purpose, the orbit perigee was lowered to approximately 130 km in order to enhance the atmospheric drag effect to the highest tolerable levels for the spacecraft; the accelerometer resolution and precision were not sufficient at higher altitudes. This campaign was requested as part of the Venus Express Atmospheric Drag Experiment (VExADE). A total of 18 orbits (i.e. days) were processed using the attitude quaternions to correctly orient the spacecraft bus and solar arrays in inertial space, which is necessary to accurately compute the exposed surface in the ram direction. The accelerometer data provide good measurements approximately from 130-140 km altitude; the length of the profiles is about 85 seconds, and they are on the early morning side (LST=4.5) at high northern latitude (70°N-82°N). The densities are a factor 2-3 larger than Hedin's VTS-3 thermosphere model, which is consistent with earlier results obtained via classical precise orbit determination at higher altitudes. Wavelike structures with amplitudes of 20% and more are detected, with wavelengths of about 100-500 km. We cannot entirely rule out that these waves are caused by the spacecraft or due to some unknown instrumental effect, but we estimate this probability to be very low.

An improved probabilistic approach for linking progenitor and descendant galaxy populations using comoving number density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellons, Sarah; Torrey, Paul

2017-06-01

Galaxy populations at different cosmic epochs are often linked by cumulative comoving number density in observational studies. Many theoretical works, however, have shown that the cumulative number densities of tracked galaxy populations not only evolve in bulk, but also spread out over time. We present a method for linking progenitor and descendant galaxy populations which takes both of these effects into account. We define probability distribution functions that capture the evolution and dispersion of galaxy populations in number density space, and use these functions to assign galaxies at redshift zf probabilities of being progenitors/descendants of a galaxy population at another redshift z0. These probabilities are used as weights for calculating distributions of physical progenitor/descendant properties such as stellar mass, star formation rate or velocity dispersion. We demonstrate that this probabilistic method provides more accurate predictions for the evolution of physical properties than the assumption of either a constant number density or an evolving number density in a bin of fixed width by comparing predictions against galaxy populations directly tracked through a cosmological simulation. We find that the constant number density method performs least well at recovering galaxy properties, the evolving method density slightly better and the probabilistic method best of all. The improvement is present for predictions of stellar mass as well as inferred quantities such as star formation rate and velocity dispersion. We demonstrate that this method can also be applied robustly and easily to observational data, and provide a code package for doing so.

Radiative transition of hydrogen-like ions in quantum plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Hongwei; Chen, Zhanbin; Chen, Wencong

2016-12-01

At fusion plasma electron temperature and number density regimes of 1 × 103-1 × 107 K and 1 × 1028-1 × 1031/m3, respectively, the excited states and radiative transition of hydrogen-like ions in fusion plasmas are studied. The results show that quantum plasma model is more suitable to describe the fusion plasma than the Debye screening model. Relativistic correction to bound-state energies of the low-Z hydrogen-like ions is so small that it can be ignored. The transition probability decreases with plasma density, but the transition probabilities have the same order of magnitude in the same number density regime.

Probabilistic Density Function Method for Stochastic ODEs of Power Systems with Uncertain Power Input

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Peng; Barajas-Solano, David A.; Constantinescu, Emil

Wind and solar power generators are commonly described by a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) where random input parameters represent uncertainty in wind and solar energy. The existing methods for SODEs are mostly limited to delta-correlated random parameters (white noise). Here we use the Probability Density Function (PDF) method for deriving a closed-form deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) for the joint probability density function of the SODEs describing a power generator with time-correlated power input. The resulting PDE is solved numerically. A good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulations shows accuracy of the PDF method.

Using Fish Population Metrics to Compare the Effects of Artificial Reef Density.

PubMed

Froehlich, Catheline Y M; Kline, Richard J

2015-01-01

Artificial reefs continue to be added as habitat throughout the world, yet questions remain about how reef design affects fish diversity and abundance. In the present study, the effects of reef density were assessed for fish communities and sizes of economically valuable Lutjanus campechanus 13 km off Port Mansfield, Texas, at a reef composed of more than 4000 concrete culverts. The study spanned from May to June in 2013 and 2014, and sites sampled included natural reefs, bare areas, and varying culvert patch density categories, ranging from 1-190 culverts. Abundances of adults and species evenness of juvenile populations differed between the years. Fish communities did not significantly differ among density categories; however, highest species richness and total abundances were observed at intermediate culvert densities and at natural reefs. Whereas the abundance of L. campechanus did not differ among density categories, mean total lengths of L. campechanus were greatest at the lower density. Our findings suggest that reefs should be deployed with intermediate patch density of 71-120 culverts in a 30-m radius to yield the highest fish abundances.

Using Fish Population Metrics to Compare the Effects of Artificial Reef Density

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Artificial reefs continue to be added as habitat throughout the world, yet questions remain about how reef design affects fish diversity and abundance. In the present study, the effects of reef density were assessed for fish communities and sizes of economically valuable Lutjanus campechanus 13 km off Port Mansfield, Texas, at a reef composed of more than 4000 concrete culverts. The study spanned from May to June in 2013 and 2014, and sites sampled included natural reefs, bare areas, and varying culvert patch density categories, ranging from 1–190 culverts. Abundances of adults and species evenness of juvenile populations differed between the years. Fish communities did not significantly differ among density categories; however, highest species richness and total abundances were observed at intermediate culvert densities and at natural reefs. Whereas the abundance of L. campechanus did not differ among density categories, mean total lengths of L. campechanus were greatest at the lower density. Our findings suggest that reefs should be deployed with intermediate patch density of 71–120 culverts in a 30-m radius to yield the highest fish abundances. PMID:26422472

Ask Marilyn in the Mathematics Classroom: Probability Questions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vasko, Francis J.

2012-01-01

Since 1986, Marilyn Vos Savant, who is listed in the "Guinness Book of World Records Hall of Fame" for the highest IQ, has had a weekly column that is published in "Parade Magazine." In this column, she answers readers' questions on a wide variety of subjects including mathematics and particularly probability. Many of the mathematically oriented…

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

PubMed

Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

2015-01-01

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark-recapture estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Jolley, D.B.; Sparklin, B.D.; Ditchkoff, S.S.

2008-01-01

Closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work. ?? CSIRO 2008.

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horn, J. E.; Harter, T.

2011-06-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems such as septic systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30 % of households are served by a septic system and a private drinking water well. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. Particularly in areas with small lots, thus a high septic system density, these typically shallow wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Typically, mass balance approaches are used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of the aquifer. In this study, we estimate the probability of a well pumping partially septic system leachate. A detailed groundwater and transport model is used to calculate the capture zone of a typical drinking water well. A spatial probability analysis is performed to assess the probability that a capture zone overlaps with a septic system drainfield depending on aquifer properties, lot and drainfield size. We show that a high septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We conclude that mass balances calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances which experience limited attenuation, and those being harmful even in low concentrations.

Use of a priori statistics to minimize acquisition time for RFI immune spread spectrum systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holmes, J. K.; Woo, K. T.

1978-01-01

The optimum acquisition sweep strategy was determined for a PN code despreader when the a priori probability density function was not uniform. A psuedo noise spread spectrum system was considered which could be utilized in the DSN to combat radio frequency interference. In a sample case, when the a priori probability density function was Gaussian, the acquisition time was reduced by about 41% compared to a uniform sweep approach.

RADC Multi-Dimensional Signal-Processing Research Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-30

Formulation 7 3.2.2 Methods of Accelerating Convergence 8 3.2.3 Application to Image Deblurring 8 3.2.4 Extensions 11 3.3 Convergence of Iterative Signal... noise -driven linear filters, permit development of the joint probability density function oz " kelihood function for the image. With an expression...spatial linear filter driven by white noise (see Fig. i). If the probability density function for the white noise is known, Fig. t. Model for image

Computing rates of Markov models of voltage-gated ion channels by inverting partial differential equations governing the probability density functions of the conducting and non-conducting states.

PubMed

Tveito, Aslak; Lines, Glenn T; Edwards, Andrew G; McCulloch, Andrew

2016-07-01

Markov models are ubiquitously used to represent the function of single ion channels. However, solving the inverse problem to construct a Markov model of single channel dynamics from bilayer or patch-clamp recordings remains challenging, particularly for channels involving complex gating processes. Methods for solving the inverse problem are generally based on data from voltage clamp measurements. Here, we describe an alternative approach to this problem based on measurements of voltage traces. The voltage traces define probability density functions of the functional states of an ion channel. These probability density functions can also be computed by solving a deterministic system of partial differential equations. The inversion is based on tuning the rates of the Markov models used in the deterministic system of partial differential equations such that the solution mimics the properties of the probability density function gathered from (pseudo) experimental data as well as possible. The optimization is done by defining a cost function to measure the difference between the deterministic solution and the solution based on experimental data. By evoking the properties of this function, it is possible to infer whether the rates of the Markov model are identifiable by our method. We present applications to Markov model well-known from the literature. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

All-solid state symmetric supercapacitors based on compressible and flexible free-standing 3D carbon nanotubes (CNTs)/poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) sponge electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xin; Yang, Wenyao; Mao, Xiling; Xu, Lu; Zhou, Yujiu; Chen, Yan; Zhao, Yuetao; Yang, Yajie; Xu, Jianhua

2018-02-01

Flexible supercapacitors that maintain electrochemical performance under deformation have attracted much attention for the potential application in the flexible electronics market. A compressible and flexible free-standing electrodes sponge and all-solid-state symmetric supercapacitors based on as-prepared electrodes are presented. The carbon nanotubes (CNTs) framework is synthesized by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method, and then composited with poly (3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) PEDOT by the electrodeposition. This CNTs/PEDOT sponge electrode shows highest mass-specific capacitance of 147 Fg-1 at 0.5 A g-1, tuned by the PEDOT mass loading, and exhibits good cyclic stability with the evidence that more than 95% of capacitance is remained after 3000 cycles. Furthermore, the symmetric supercapacitor shows the highest energy density of 12.6 Wh kg-1 under the power density of 1 kW kg-1 and highest power density of 10.2 kW kg-1 with energy density of 8 Wh kg-1, which exhibits both high energy density and power density. The electrochemical performance of composite electrode also indicates that the operate voltage of device could be extend to 1.4 V by the n-doping and p-doping process in different potential of PEDOT component. This flexible supercapacitor maintains stable electrochemical performance working on different bending condition, which shows promising prospect for wearable energy storage applications.

Energetics and Birth Rates of Supernova Remnants in the Large Magellanic Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leahy, D. A.

2017-03-01

Published X-ray emission properties for a sample of 50 supernova remnants (SNRs) in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) are used as input for SNR evolution modeling calculations. The forward shock emission is modeled to obtain the initial explosion energy, age, and circumstellar medium density for each SNR in the sample. The resulting age distribution yields a SNR birthrate of 1/(500 yr) for the LMC. The explosion energy distribution is well fit by a log-normal distribution, with a most-probable explosion energy of 0.5× {10}51 erg, with a 1σ dispersion by a factor of 3 in energy. The circumstellar medium density distribution is broader than the explosion energy distribution, with a most-probable density of ˜0.1 cm-3. The shape of the density distribution can be fit with a log-normal distribution, with incompleteness at high density caused by the shorter evolution times of SNRs.

Probability density function of non-reactive solute concentration in heterogeneous porous formations

Treesearch

Alberto Bellin; Daniele Tonina

2007-01-01

Available models of solute transport in heterogeneous formations lack in providing complete characterization of the predicted concentration. This is a serious drawback especially in risk analysis where confidence intervals and probability of exceeding threshold values are required. Our contribution to fill this gap of knowledge is a probability distribution model for...

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data.

PubMed

Roberts, D R; Paris, J F; Manguin, S; Harbach, R E; Woodruff, R; Rejmankova, E; Polanco, J; Wullschleger, B; Legters, L J

1996-03-01

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, D. R.; Paris, J. F.; Manguin, S.; Harbach, R. E.; Woodruff, R.; Rejmankova, E.; Polanco, J.; Wullschleger, B.; Legters, L. J.

1996-01-01

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Natal and breeding philopatry in a black brant, Branta bernicla nigricans, metapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Sedinger, James S.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

We estimated natal and breeding philopatry and dispersal probabilities for a metapopulation of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) based on observations of marked birds at six breeding colonies in Alaska, 1986–1994. Both adult females and males exhibited high (>0.90) probability of philopatry to breeding colonies. Probability of natal philopatry was significantly higher for females than males. Natal dispersal of males was recorded between every pair of colonies, whereas natal dispersal of females was observed between only half of the colony pairs. We suggest that female-biased philopatry was the result of timing of pair formation and characteristics of the mating system of brant, rather than factors related to inbreeding avoidance or optimal discrepancy. Probability of natal philopatry of females increased with age but declined with year of banding. Age-related increase in natal philopatry was positively related to higher breeding probability of older females. Declines in natal philopatry with year of banding corresponded negatively to a period of increasing population density; therefore, local population density may influence the probability of nonbreeding and gene flow among colonies.

Intermediate disturbance in experimental landscapes improves persistence of beetle metapopulations.

PubMed

Govindan, Byju N; Feng, Zhilan; DeWoody, Yssa D; Swihart, Robert K

2015-03-01

Human-dominated landscapes often feature patches that fluctuate in suitability through space and time, but there is little experimental evidence relating the consequences of dynamic patches for species persistence. We used a spatially and temporally dynamic metapopulation model to assess and compare metapopulation capacity and persistence for red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum) in experimental landscapes differentiated by resource structure, patch dynamics (destruction and restoration), and connectivity. High connectivity increased the colonization rate of beetles, but this effect was less pronounced in heterogeneous relative to homogeneous landscapes. Higher connectivity and faster patch dynamics increased extinction rates in landscapes. Lower connectivity promoted density-dependent emigration. Heterogeneous landscapes containing patches of different carrying capacity enhanced landscape-level occupancy probability. The highest metapopulation capacity and persistence was observed in landscapes with heterogeneous patches, low connectivity, and slow patch dynamics. Control landscapes with no patch dynamics exhibited rapid declines in abundance and approached extinction due to increased adult mortality in the matrix, higher pupal cannibalism by adults, and extremely low rates of exchange between remaining habitable patches. Our results highlight the role of intermediate patch dynamics, intermediate connectivity, and the nature of density dependence of emigration for persistence of species in heterogeneous landscapes. Our results also demonstrate the importance of incorporating local dynamics into the estimation of metapopulation capacity for conservation planning.

Neuronal factors determining high intelligence.

PubMed

Dicke, Ursula; Roth, Gerhard

2016-01-05

Many attempts have been made to correlate degrees of both animal and human intelligence with brain properties. With respect to mammals, a much-discussed trait concerns absolute and relative brain size, either uncorrected or corrected for body size. However, the correlation of both with degrees of intelligence yields large inconsistencies, because although they are regarded as the most intelligent mammals, monkeys and apes, including humans, have neither the absolutely nor the relatively largest brains. The best fit between brain traits and degrees of intelligence among mammals is reached by a combination of the number of cortical neurons, neuron packing density, interneuronal distance and axonal conduction velocity--factors that determine general information processing capacity (IPC), as reflected by general intelligence. The highest IPC is found in humans, followed by the great apes, Old World and New World monkeys. The IPC of cetaceans and elephants is much lower because of a thin cortex, low neuron packing density and low axonal conduction velocity. By contrast, corvid and psittacid birds have very small and densely packed pallial neurons and relatively many neurons, which, despite very small brain volumes, might explain their high intelligence. The evolution of a syntactical and grammatical language in humans most probably has served as an additional intelligence amplifier, which may have happened in songbirds and psittacids in a convergent manner. © 2015 The Author(s).

Sex, race, and age distributions of mean aortic wall thickness in a multiethnic population-based sample.

PubMed

Rosero, Eric B; Peshock, Ronald M; Khera, Amit; Clagett, Patrick; Lo, Hao; Timaran, Carlos H

2011-04-01

Reference values and age-related changes of the wall thickness of the abdominal aorta have not been described in the general population. We characterized age-, race-, and gender-specific distributions, and yearly rates of change of mean aortic wall thickness (MAWT), and associations between MAWT and cardiovascular risk factors in a multi-ethnic population-based probability sample. Magnetic resonance imaging measurements of MAWT were performed on 2466 free-living white, black, and Hispanic adult subjects. MAWT race/ethnicity- and gender-specific percentile values across age were estimated using regression analyses. MAWT was greater in men than in women and increased linearly with age in all the groups and across all the percentiles. Hispanic women had the thinnest and black men the thickest aortas. Black men had the highest and white women the lowest age-related MAWT increase. Age, gender, ethnicity, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels, and fasting glucose levels were independent predictors of MAWT. Age, gender, and racial/ethnic differences in MAWT distributions exist in the general population. Such differences should be considered in future investigations assessing aortic atherosclerosis and the effects of anti-atherosclerotic therapies. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Birds flee en mass from New Year’s Eve fireworks

PubMed Central

Dokter, Adriaan M.; van Gasteren, Hans; van Loon, E. Emiel; Leijnse, Hidde; Bouten, Willem

2011-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbances of wildlife, such as noise, human presence, hunting activity, and motor vehicles, are becoming an increasing concern in conservation biology. Fireworks are an important part of celebrations worldwide, and although humans often find fireworks spectacular, fireworks are probably perceived quite differently by wild animals. Behavioral responses to fireworks are difficult to study at night, and little is known about the negative effects fireworks may have on wildlife. Every year, thousands of tons of fireworks are lit by civilians on New Year’s Eve in the Netherlands. Using an operational weather radar, we quantified the reaction of birds to fireworks in 3 consecutive years. Thousands of birds took flight shortly after midnight, with high aerial movements lasting at least 45 min and peak densities measured at 500 m altitude. The highest densities were observed over grasslands and wetlands, including nature conservation sites, where thousands of waterfowl rest and feed. The Netherlands is the most important winter staging area for several species of waterfowl in Europe. We estimate that hundreds of thousands of birds in the Netherlands take flight due to fireworks. The spatial and temporal extent of disturbance is substantial, and potential consequences are discussed. Weather radar provides a unique opportunity to study the reaction of birds to fireworks, which has otherwise remained elusive. PMID:22476363

The formation process of the flood type lamina in the Lake Mokoto, Hokkaido, Japan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, K.; Katsuki, K.; Takeshi, S.

2017-12-01

In the coastal area of the Sea of Okhotsk in the east part of Hokkaido located to subarctic zone, many brackish-water lakes are distributed. Lake Mokoto consist of organic mud with the lamination. The 09Mk-1C core at 2009. In the soft X-ray photograph, the cyclic lamina set is observed. The cyclic lamina set consists of low- and high-density lamina. According to the meteorological data in Abashiri region, the annually precipitation is high from August to September. Probably, the cyclic lamina set is formed by seasonal change of precipitation. In August 2016, it showed a precipitation of 425 mm which is about 4 times the average precipitation. In February 2017, the 10 cm class short core (17Mk-4SC core) was collected and the flood lamina was observed. Six layers showing different color were observed in top 6.5 cm. The first, third and fifth layers from the top are relatively light in color (L*value=17). The second, fourth and sixth layers are relatively dark in color (L*value=8). Thickness of the first to fourth layers is about 5 mm, but the thickness of the fifth layer reaches 4 cm. According to the observation of the soft X-ray photograph, the third and fifth layers were high-density lamina, and the others were low-density lamina. Because these layers were not observed in the 15Mk-3C core collected in March 2015, they were deposited after that. It is estimated that the third layer showing the high-density lamina is the sediment of the flood event in August 2016. This is supported by the fact that the total organic carbon (TOC) and total sulfur (TS) contents are diluted and the C/N ratio is relatively high value. Because this lamina is remarkable, it will be used as a future key bed. On the other hand, the fifth layer showing the high-density is a very thick. In this layer, the TS content is diluted and the C/N ratio is high, but the TOC content shows the highest value. This suggests that sediments with high TOC content flowed out from Mokoto River Basin. It has been reported that a large-scale artificial sediment discharge occurred in agricultural lands in the basin. This sediment was probably deposited at the downstream Lake Mokoto. It is suggested that a remarkable event layer is formed by sediment discharge due to slope collapse in basin.

Axial- and radial-resolved electron density and excitation temperature of aluminum plasma induced by nanosecond laser: Effect of the ambient gas composition and pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dawood, Mahmoud S.; Hamdan, Ahmad, E-mail: ahmad.ba.hamdan@gmail.com, E-mail: Joelle.margot@umontreal.ca; Margot, Joëlle, E-mail: ahmad.ba.hamdan@gmail.com, E-mail: Joelle.margot@umontreal.ca

2015-11-15

The spatial variation of the characteristics of an aluminum plasma induced by a pulsed nanosecond XeCl laser is studied in this paper. The electron density and the excitation temperature are deduced from time- and space- resolved Stark broadening of an ion line and from a Boltzmann diagram, respectively. The influence of the gas pressure (from vacuum up to atmospheric pressure) and compositions (argon, nitrogen and helium) on these characteristics is investigated. It is observed that the highest electron density occurs near the laser spot and decreases by moving away both from the target surface and from the plume center tomore » its edge. The electron density increases with the gas pressure, the highest values being occurred at atmospheric pressure when the ambient gas has the highest mass, i.e. in argon. The excitation temperature is determined from the Boltzmann plot of line intensities of iron impurities present in the aluminum target. The highest temperature is observed close to the laser spot location for argon at atmospheric pressure. It decreases by moving away from the target surface in the axial direction. However, no significant variation of temperature occurs along the radial direction. The differences observed between the axial and radial direction are mainly due to the different plasma kinetics in both directions.« less

Effects of irrigation on the seasonal abundance of Empoasca vitis in north-Italian vineyards.

PubMed

Fornasiero, D; Duso, C; Pozzebon, A; Tomasi, D; Gaiotti, F; Pavan, F

2012-02-01

The effect of irrigation on the abundance of Empoasca vitis (Göthe) populations was investigated in four vineyards located in northeastern Italy. In two experiments, we compared leafhopper population densities in plots irrigated (micro-spray irrigation system) or nonirrigated. In another experiment, we studied the effect of various irrigation systems on E. vitis populations over two successive seasons. In particular, five treatments were compared: control (not irrigated), traditional drip system, three types of subirrigation varying in distance from the row (40, 135, and 95 cm). In this vineyard, stem water potential was monitored with a pressure chamber. E. vitis population densities were affected by irrigation, with higher densities of this pest recorded on irrigated vines. Highest E. vitis densities were detected in drip irrigation plots compared with nonirrigated plots where water stress was highest. Moderate water stress (subirrigation plots) was associated with intermediate leafhopper densities. Implications for integrated pest management are discussed.

On-line prognosis of fatigue crack propagation based on Gaussian weight-mixture proposal particle filter.

PubMed

Chen, Jian; Yuan, Shenfang; Qiu, Lei; Wang, Hui; Yang, Weibo

2018-01-01

Accurate on-line prognosis of fatigue crack propagation is of great meaning for prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies to ensure structural integrity, which is a challenging task because of uncertainties which arise from sources such as intrinsic material properties, loading, and environmental factors. The particle filter algorithm has been proved to be a powerful tool to deal with prognostic problems those are affected by uncertainties. However, most studies adopted the basic particle filter algorithm, which uses the transition probability density function as the importance density and may suffer from serious particle degeneracy problem. This paper proposes an on-line fatigue crack propagation prognosis method based on a novel Gaussian weight-mixture proposal particle filter and the active guided wave based on-line crack monitoring. Based on the on-line crack measurement, the mixture of the measurement probability density function and the transition probability density function is proposed to be the importance density. In addition, an on-line dynamic update procedure is proposed to adjust the parameter of the state equation. The proposed method is verified on the fatigue test of attachment lugs which are a kind of important joint components in aircraft structures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.

1976-01-01

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Small-scale plasma, magnetic, and neutral density fluctuations in the nightside Venus ionosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoegy, W.R.; Brace, L.H.; Kasprazak, W.T.

1990-04-01

Pioneer Venus orbiter measurements have shown that coherent small-scale waves exist in the electron density, the electron temperature, and the magnetic field in the lower ionosphere of Venus just downstream of the solar terminator (Brace et al., 1983). The waves become less regular and less coherent at larger solar zenith angles, and Brace et al. suggested that these structures may have evolved from the terminator waves as they are convected into the nightside ionosphere, driven by the day-to-night plasma pressure gradient. In this paper the authors describe the changes in wave characteristics with solar zenith angle and show that themore » neutral gas also has related wave characteristics, probably because of atmospheric gravity waves. The plasma pressure exceeds the magnetic pressure in the nightside ionosphere at these altitudes, and thus the magnetic field is carried along and controlled by the turbulent motion of the plasma, but the wavelike nature of the thermosphere may also be coupled to the plasma and magnetic structure. They show that there is a significant coherence between the ionosphere, thermosphere, and magnetic parameters at altitudes below about 185 km, a coherence which weakens in the antisolar region. The electron temperature and density are approximately 180{degree} out of phase and consistently exhibit the highest correlation of any pair of variables. Waves in the electron and neutral densities are moderately correlated on most orbits, but with a phase difference that varies within each orbit. The average electron temperature is higher when the average magnetic field is more horizontal; however, the correlation between temperature and dip angle does not extend to individual wave structures observed within a satellite pass, particularly in the antisolar region.« less

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brook, Rodney W.; Leafloor, James O.; Douglas, David C.; Abraham, Kenneth F.

2015-01-01

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.

Stochastic transport models for mixing in variable-density turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakosi, J.; Ristorcelli, J. R.

2011-11-01

In variable-density (VD) turbulent mixing, where very-different- density materials coexist, the density fluctuations can be an order of magnitude larger than their mean. Density fluctuations are non-negligible in the inertia terms of the Navier-Stokes equation which has both quadratic and cubic nonlinearities. Very different mixing rates of different materials give rise to large differential accelerations and some fundamentally new physics that is not seen in constant-density turbulence. In VD flows material mixing is active in a sense far stronger than that applied in the Boussinesq approximation of buoyantly-driven flows: the mass fraction fluctuations are coupled to each other and to the fluid momentum. Statistical modeling of VD mixing requires accounting for basic constraints that are not important in the small-density-fluctuation passive-scalar-mixing approximation: the unit-sum of mass fractions, bounded sample space, and the highly skewed nature of the probability densities become essential. We derive a transport equation for the joint probability of mass fractions, equivalent to a system of stochastic differential equations, that is consistent with VD mixing in multi-component turbulence and consistently reduces to passive scalar mixing in constant-density flows.

Uncertainty quantification of voice signal production mechanical model and experimental updating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cataldo, E.; Soize, C.; Sampaio, R.

2013-11-01

The aim of this paper is to analyze the uncertainty quantification in a voice production mechanical model and update the probability density function corresponding to the tension parameter using the Bayes method and experimental data. Three parameters are considered uncertain in the voice production mechanical model used: the tension parameter, the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure. The tension parameter of the vocal folds is mainly responsible for the changing of the fundamental frequency of a voice signal, generated by a mechanical/mathematical model for producing voiced sounds. The three uncertain parameters are modeled by random variables. The probability density function related to the tension parameter is considered uniform and the probability density functions related to the neutral glottal area and the subglottal pressure are constructed using the Maximum Entropy Principle. The output of the stochastic computational model is the random voice signal and the Monte Carlo method is used to solve the stochastic equations allowing realizations of the random voice signals to be generated. For each realization of the random voice signal, the corresponding realization of the random fundamental frequency is calculated and the prior pdf of this random fundamental frequency is then estimated. Experimental data are available for the fundamental frequency and the posterior probability density function of the random tension parameter is then estimated using the Bayes method. In addition, an application is performed considering a case with a pathology in the vocal folds. The strategy developed here is important mainly due to two things. The first one is related to the possibility of updating the probability density function of a parameter, the tension parameter of the vocal folds, which cannot be measured direct and the second one is related to the construction of the likelihood function. In general, it is predefined using the known pdf. Here, it is constructed in a new and different manner, using the own system considered.

Statistics provide guidance for indigenous organic carbon detection on Mars missions.

PubMed

Sephton, Mark A; Carter, Jonathan N

2014-08-01

Data from the Viking and Mars Science Laboratory missions indicate the presence of organic compounds that are not definitively martian in origin. Both contamination and confounding mineralogies have been suggested as alternatives to indigenous organic carbon. Intuitive thought suggests that we are repeatedly obtaining data that confirms the same level of uncertainty. Bayesian statistics may suggest otherwise. If an organic detection method has a true positive to false positive ratio greater than one, then repeated organic matter detection progressively increases the probability of indigeneity. Bayesian statistics also reveal that methods with higher ratios of true positives to false positives give higher overall probabilities and that detection of organic matter in a sample with a higher prior probability of indigenous organic carbon produces greater confidence. Bayesian statistics, therefore, provide guidance for the planning and operation of organic carbon detection activities on Mars. Suggestions for future organic carbon detection missions and instruments are as follows: (i) On Earth, instruments should be tested with analog samples of known organic content to determine their true positive to false positive ratios. (ii) On the mission, for an instrument with a true positive to false positive ratio above one, it should be recognized that each positive detection of organic carbon will result in a progressive increase in the probability of indigenous organic carbon being present; repeated measurements, therefore, can overcome some of the deficiencies of a less-than-definitive test. (iii) For a fixed number of analyses, the highest true positive to false positive ratio method or instrument will provide the greatest probability that indigenous organic carbon is present. (iv) On Mars, analyses should concentrate on samples with highest prior probability of indigenous organic carbon; intuitive desires to contrast samples of high prior probability and low prior probability of indigenous organic carbon should be resisted.

Attenuated associations between increasing BMI and unfavorable lipid profiles in Chinese Buddhist vegetarians.

PubMed

Zhang, Hui-Jie; Han, Peng; Sun, Su-Yun; Wang, Li-Ying; Yan, Bing; Zhang, Jin-Hua; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Shu-Yu; Li, Xue-Jun

2013-01-01

Obesity is related to hyperlipidemia and risk of cardiovascular disease. Health benefits of vegetarian diets have well-documented in the Western countries where both obesity and hyperlipidemia were prevalent. We studied the association between BMI and various lipid/lipoprotein measures, as well as between BMI and predicted coronary heart disease probability in lean, low risk populations in Southern China. The study included 170 Buddhist monks (vegetarians) and 126 omnivore men. Interaction between BMI and vegetarian status was tested in the multivariable regression analysis adjusting for age, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, and physical activity. Compared with omnivores, vegetarians had significantly lower mean BMI, blood pressures, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein ratio, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B and A-I, as well as lower predicted probability of coronary heart disease. Higher BMI was associated with unfavorable lipid/lipoprotein profile and predicted probability of coronary heart disease in both vegetarians and omnivores. However, the associations were significantly diminished in Buddhist vegetarians. Vegetarian diets not only lower BMI, but also attenuate the BMI-related increases of atherogenic lipid/ lipoprotein and the probability of coronary heart disease.

Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Glenn L.

2009-01-01

A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

A partial differential equation for pseudocontact shift.

PubMed

Charnock, G T P; Kuprov, Ilya

2014-10-07

It is demonstrated that pseudocontact shift (PCS), viewed as a scalar or a tensor field in three dimensions, obeys an elliptic partial differential equation with a source term that depends on the Hessian of the unpaired electron probability density. The equation enables straightforward PCS prediction and analysis in systems with delocalized unpaired electrons, particularly for the nuclei located in their immediate vicinity. It is also shown that the probability density of the unpaired electron may be extracted, using a regularization procedure, from PCS data.

Probability density cloud as a geometrical tool to describe statistics of scattered light.

PubMed

Yaitskova, Natalia

2017-04-01

First-order statistics of scattered light is described using the representation of the probability density cloud, which visualizes a two-dimensional distribution for complex amplitude. The geometric parameters of the cloud are studied in detail and are connected to the statistical properties of phase. The moment-generating function for intensity is obtained in a closed form through these parameters. An example of exponentially modified normal distribution is provided to illustrate the functioning of this geometrical approach.

Dynamic analysis of pedestrian crossing behaviors on traffic flow at unsignalized mid-block crosswalks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Gang; He, Jing; Luo, Zhiyong; Yang, Wunian; Zhang, Xiping

2015-05-01

It is important to study the effects of pedestrian crossing behaviors on traffic flow for solving the urban traffic jam problem. Based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch) traffic cellular automata (TCA) model, a new one-dimensional TCA model is proposed considering the uncertainty conflict behaviors between pedestrians and vehicles at unsignalized mid-block crosswalks and defining the parallel updating rules of motion states of pedestrians and vehicles. The traffic flow is simulated for different vehicle densities and behavior trigger probabilities. The fundamental diagrams show that no matter what the values of vehicle braking probability, pedestrian acceleration crossing probability, pedestrian backing probability and pedestrian generation probability, the system flow shows the "increasing-saturating-decreasing" trend with the increase of vehicle density; when the vehicle braking probability is lower, it is easy to cause an emergency brake of vehicle and result in great fluctuation of saturated flow; the saturated flow decreases slightly with the increase of the pedestrian acceleration crossing probability; when the pedestrian backing probability lies between 0.4 and 0.6, the saturated flow is unstable, which shows the hesitant behavior of pedestrians when making the decision of backing; the maximum flow is sensitive to the pedestrian generation probability and rapidly decreases with increasing the pedestrian generation probability, the maximum flow is approximately equal to zero when the probability is more than 0.5. The simulations prove that the influence of frequent crossing behavior upon vehicle flow is immense; the vehicle flow decreases and gets into serious congestion state rapidly with the increase of the pedestrian generation probability.

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Ryan, Mark R.; Runge, Michael C.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts

2011-01-01

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

Ensemble Kalman filtering in presence of inequality constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Leeuwen, P. J.

2009-04-01

Kalman filtering is presence of constraints is an active area of research. Based on the Gaussian assumption for the probability-density functions, it looks hard to bring in extra constraints in the formalism. On the other hand, in geophysical systems we often encounter constraints related to e.g. the underlying physics or chemistry, which are violated by the Gaussian assumption. For instance, concentrations are always non-negative, model layers have non-negative thickness, and sea-ice concentration is between 0 and 1. Several methods to bring inequality constraints into the Kalman-filter formalism have been proposed. One of them is probability density function (pdf) truncation, in which the Gaussian mass from the non-allowed part of the variables is just equally distributed over the pdf where the variables are alolwed, as proposed by Shimada et al. 1998. However, a problem with this method is that the probability that e.g. the sea-ice concentration is zero, is zero! The new method proposed here does not have this drawback. It assumes that the probability-density function is a truncated Gaussian, but the truncated mass is not distributed equally over all allowed values of the variables, but put into a delta distribution at the truncation point. This delta distribution can easily be handled with in Bayes theorem, leading to posterior probability density functions that are also truncated Gaussians with delta distributions at the truncation location. In this way a much better representation of the system is obtained, while still keeping most of the benefits of the Kalman-filter formalism. In the full Kalman filter the formalism is prohibitively expensive in large-scale systems, but efficient implementation is possible in ensemble variants of the kalman filter. Applications to low-dimensional systems and large-scale systems will be discussed.

Oregon Cascades Play Fairway Analysis: Faults and Heat Flow maps

DOE Data Explorer

Adam Brandt

2015-11-15

This submission includes a fault map of the Oregon Cascades and backarc, a probability map of heat flow, and a fault density probability layer. More extensive metadata can be found within each zip file.

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaca, M. V.; Tretter, S. A.

1977-01-01

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are obtained. The approach is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. A general representation for optimum estimates and recursive equations for minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimates are obtained. MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a probability density function of the form cx super K (l-x) super m and show that the MMSE estimates are linear in this case. This class of density functions explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaca, M. V.; Tretter, S. A.

1978-01-01

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are derived. The approach used is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. Thus a general representation is obtained for optimum estimates, and recursive equations are derived for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimates. In general, MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem is considered of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a beta probability density function and the jump amplitudes are binomially distributed. It is shown that the MMSE estimates are linear. The class of beta density functions is rather rich and explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Information Density and Syntactic Repetition.

PubMed

Temperley, David; Gildea, Daniel

2015-11-01

In noun phrase (NP) coordinate constructions (e.g., NP and NP), there is a strong tendency for the syntactic structure of the second conjunct to match that of the first; the second conjunct in such constructions is therefore low in syntactic information. The theory of uniform information density predicts that low-information syntactic constructions will be counterbalanced by high information in other aspects of that part of the sentence, and high-information constructions will be counterbalanced by other low-information components. Three predictions follow: (a) lexical probabilities (measured by N-gram probabilities and head-dependent probabilities) will be lower in second conjuncts than first conjuncts; (b) lexical probabilities will be lower in matching second conjuncts (those whose syntactic expansions match the first conjunct) than nonmatching ones; and (c) syntactic repetition should be especially common for low-frequency NP expansions. Corpus analysis provides support for all three of these predictions. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kastner, S.O.; Bhatia, A.K.

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284 --500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t/sub i/j, related to ''taboo'' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t/sub i/j are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potentialmore » interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.« less

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cod nursery areas in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinrichsen, H.-H.; von Dewitz, B.; Lehmann, A.; Bergström, U.; Hüssy, K.

2017-06-01

In this study the drift of eastern Baltic cod larvae and juveniles spawned within the historical eastern Baltic cod spawning grounds was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1971-2010, to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental suitability in the nursery areas of juvenile cod settlement. The results of the long-term model scenario runs, where juvenile cod were treated as simulated passively drifting particles, enabled us to find strong indications for long-term variations of settlement and potentially the reproduction success of the historically important eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds. Only low proportions of juveniles hatched in the Arkona Basin and in the Gotland Basin were able to settle in their respective spawning ground. Ocean currents were either unfavorable for the juveniles to reach suitable habitats or transported the juveniles to nursery grounds of neighboring subdivisions. Juveniles which hatched in the Bornholm Basin were most widely dispersed and showed the highest settlement probability, while the second highest settlement probability and horizontal dispersal was observed for juveniles originating from the Gdansk Deep. In a long-term perspective, wind-driven transport of larvae/juveniles positively affected the settlement success predominately in the Bornholm Basin and in the Bay of Gdansk. The Bornholm Basin has the potential to contribute on average 54% and the Bay of Gdansk 11% to the production of juveniles in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, transport of juveniles surviving to the age of settlement with origin in the Bornholm Basin contributed on average 13 and 11% to the total settlement in the Arkona Basin and in the Gdansk Deep, respectively. The time-series of the simulated occupied juvenile cod habitat in the Bornholm Basin and in the Gdansk Deep showed a similar declining trend as the Fulton's K condition factor of demersal 1-group cod, which may confirm the importance of oxygen-dependent habitat availability and its effect on density dependence as a process relevant for recruitment success.

A matrix-based approach to solving the inverse Frobenius-Perron problem using sequences of density functions of stochastically perturbed dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Xiaokai; Coca, Daniel

2018-01-01

The paper introduces a matrix-based approach to estimate the unique one-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system that generated a given sequence of probability density functions whilst subjected to an additive stochastic perturbation with known density.

A matrix-based approach to solving the inverse Frobenius-Perron problem using sequences of density functions of stochastically perturbed dynamical systems.

PubMed

Nie, Xiaokai; Coca, Daniel

2018-01-01

The paper introduces a matrix-based approach to estimate the unique one-dimensional discrete-time dynamical system that generated a given sequence of probability density functions whilst subjected to an additive stochastic perturbation with known density.

Asphaltic mixture compaction and density validation : research brief.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-02-01

Research Objectives: : Evaluate HMA longitudinal joint type, method and compaction data to produce specification recommendations to ensure the highest density at longitudinal joints : Evaluate thin lift overlay HMA and provide recommendations...

The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2013-03-01

The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

The effects of the one-step replica symmetry breaking on the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass model in the presence of random field with a joint Gaussian probability density function for the exchange interactions and random fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjiagapiou, Ioannis A.; Velonakis, Ioannis N.

2018-07-01

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick Ising spin glass model, in the presence of a random magnetic field, is investigated within the framework of the one-step replica symmetry breaking. The two random variables (exchange integral interaction Jij and random magnetic field hi) are drawn from a joint Gaussian probability density function characterized by a correlation coefficient ρ, assuming positive and negative values. The thermodynamic properties, the three different phase diagrams and system's parameters are computed with respect to the natural parameters of the joint Gaussian probability density function at non-zero and zero temperatures. The low temperature negative entropy controversy, a result of the replica symmetry approach, has been partly remedied in the current study, leading to a less negative result. In addition, the present system possesses two successive spin glass phase transitions with characteristic temperatures.

Estimation of proportions in mixed pixels through their region characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

A region of mixed pixels can be characterized through the probability density function of proportions of classes in the pixels. Using information from the spectral vectors of a given set of pixels from the mixed pixel region, expressions are developed for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of probability density functions of proportions. The proportions of classes in the mixed pixels can then be estimated. If the mixed pixels contain objects of two classes, the computation can be reduced by transforming the spectral vectors using a transformation matrix that simultaneously diagonalizes the covariance matrices of the two classes. If the proportions of the classes of a set of mixed pixels from the region are given, then expressions are developed for obtaining the estmates of the parameters of the probability density function of the proportions of mixed pixels. Development of these expressions is based on the criterion of the minimum sum of squares of errors. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed agricultural multispectral imagery data are presented.

Characterization of nonGaussian atmospheric turbulence for prediction of aircraft response statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mark, W. D.

1977-01-01

Mathematical expressions were derived for the exceedance rates and probability density functions of aircraft response variables using a turbulence model that consists of a low frequency component plus a variance modulated Gaussian turbulence component. The functional form of experimentally observed concave exceedance curves was predicted theoretically, the strength of the concave contribution being governed by the coefficient of variation of the time fluctuating variance of the turbulence. Differences in the functional forms of response exceedance curves and probability densities also were shown to depend primarily on this same coefficient of variation. Criteria were established for the validity of the local stationary assumption that is required in the derivations of the exceedance curves and probability density functions. These criteria are shown to depend on the relative time scale of the fluctuations in the variance, the fluctuations in the turbulence itself, and on the nominal duration of the relevant aircraft impulse response function. Metrics that can be generated from turbulence recordings for testing the validity of the local stationary assumption were developed.

A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Yumin; Lum, Kai-Yew; Wang Qingguo

In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus,more » the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.« less

A H-infinity Fault Detection and Diagnosis Scheme for Discrete Nonlinear System Using Output Probability Density Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yumin; Wang, Qing-Guo; Lum, Kai-Yew

2009-03-01

In this paper, a H-infinity fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) scheme for a class of discrete nonlinear system fault using output probability density estimation is presented. Unlike classical FDD problems, the measured output of the system is viewed as a stochastic process and its square root probability density function (PDF) is modeled with B-spline functions, which leads to a deterministic space-time dynamic model including nonlinearities, uncertainties. A weighting mean value is given as an integral function of the square root PDF along space direction, which leads a function only about time and can be used to construct residual signal. Thus, the classical nonlinear filter approach can be used to detect and diagnose the fault in system. A feasible detection criterion is obtained at first, and a new H-infinity adaptive fault diagnosis algorithm is further investigated to estimate the fault. Simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

A comparative study of nonparametric methods for pattern recognition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hahn, S. F.; Nelson, G. D.

1972-01-01

The applied research discussed in this report determines and compares the correct classification percentage of the nonparametric sign test, Wilcoxon's signed rank test, and K-class classifier with the performance of the Bayes classifier. The performance is determined for data which have Gaussian, Laplacian and Rayleigh probability density functions. The correct classification percentage is shown graphically for differences in modes and/or means of the probability density functions for four, eight and sixteen samples. The K-class classifier performed very well with respect to the other classifiers used. Since the K-class classifier is a nonparametric technique, it usually performed better than the Bayes classifier which assumes the data to be Gaussian even though it may not be. The K-class classifier has the advantage over the Bayes in that it works well with non-Gaussian data without having to determine the probability density function of the data. It should be noted that the data in this experiment was always unimodal.

The allometric relationship between resting metabolic rate and body mass in wild waterfowl (Anatidae) and an application to estimation of winter habitat requirements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.R.; Eadie, J. McA

2006-01-01

Breeding densities and migration periods of Common Snipe in Colorado were investigated in 1974-75. Sites studied were near Fort Collins and in North Park, both in north central Colorado; in the Yampa Valley in northwestern Colorado; and in the San Luis Valley in south central Colorado....Estimated densities of breeding snipe based on censuses conducted during May 1974 and 1975 were, by region: 1.3-1.7 snipe/ha near Fort Collins; 0.6 snipe/ha in North Park; 0.5-0.7 snipe/ha in the Yampa Valley; and 0.5 snipe/ha in the San Luis Valley. Overall mean densities were 06 and 0.7 snipe/ha in 1974 and 1975 respectively. On individual study sites, densities of snipe ranged from 0.2 to 2.1 snipe/ha. Areas with shallow, stable, discontinuous water levels, sparse, short vegetation, and soft organic soils had the highest densities.....Twenty-eight nests were located having a mean clutch size of 3.9 eggs. Estimated onset of incubation ranged from 2 May through 4 July. Most nests were initiated in May.....Spring migration extended from late March through early May. Highest densities of snipe were recorded in all regions during l&23 April. Fall migration was underway by early September and was completed by mid-October with highest densities occurring about the third week in September. High numbers of snipe noted in early August may have been early migrants or locally produced juveniles concentrating on favorable feeding areas.

Ensemble Averaged Probability Density Function (APDF) for Compressible Turbulent Reacting Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey

2012-01-01

In this paper, we present a concept of the averaged probability density function (APDF) for studying compressible turbulent reacting flows. The APDF is defined as an ensemble average of the fine grained probability density function (FG-PDF) with a mass density weighting. It can be used to exactly deduce the mass density weighted, ensemble averaged turbulent mean variables. The transport equation for APDF can be derived in two ways. One is the traditional way that starts from the transport equation of FG-PDF, in which the compressible Navier- Stokes equations are embedded. The resulting transport equation of APDF is then in a traditional form that contains conditional means of all terms from the right hand side of the Navier-Stokes equations except for the chemical reaction term. These conditional means are new unknown quantities that need to be modeled. Another way of deriving the transport equation of APDF is to start directly from the ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The resulting transport equation of APDF derived from this approach appears in a closed form without any need for additional modeling. The methodology of ensemble averaging presented in this paper can be extended to other averaging procedures: for example, the Reynolds time averaging for statistically steady flow and the Reynolds spatial averaging for statistically homogeneous flow. It can also be extended to a time or spatial filtering procedure to construct the filtered density function (FDF) for the large eddy simulation (LES) of compressible turbulent reacting flows.

Spatial and temporal Brook Trout density dynamics: Implications for conservation, management, and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Jefferson T. Deweber,; Jason Detar,; Kristine, David; John A. Sweka,

2014-01-01

Many potential stressors to aquatic environments operate over large spatial scales, prompting the need to assess and monitor both site-specific and regional dynamics of fish populations. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability in density and capture probability of age-1 and older Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis from three-pass removal data collected at 291 sites over a 37-year time period (1975–2011) in Pennsylvania streams. There was high between-year variability in density, with annual posterior means ranging from 2.1 to 10.2 fish/100 m2; however, there was no significant long-term linear trend. Brook Trout density was positively correlated with elevation and negatively correlated with percent developed land use in the network catchment. Probability of capture did not vary substantially across sites or years but was negatively correlated with mean stream width. Because of the low spatiotemporal variation in capture probability and a strong correlation between first-pass CPUE (catch/min) and three-pass removal density estimates, the use of an abundance index based on first-pass CPUE could represent a cost-effective alternative to conducting multiple-pass removal sampling for some Brook Trout monitoring and assessment objectives. Single-pass indices may be particularly relevant for monitoring objectives that do not require precise site-specific estimates, such as regional monitoring programs that are designed to detect long-term linear trends in density.

On the use of the noncentral chi-square density function for the distribution of helicopter spectral estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garber, Donald P.

1993-01-01

A probability density function for the variability of ensemble averaged spectral estimates from helicopter acoustic signals in Gaussian background noise was evaluated. Numerical methods for calculating the density function and for determining confidence limits were explored. Density functions were predicted for both synthesized and experimental data and compared with observed spectral estimate variability.

Comparison of conventional and digital radiography for radiometric differentiation of dental cements.

PubMed

Baksi, B Güniz; Ermis, R Banu

2007-10-01

To test the efficacy of conventional radiometry with indirect digital image analysis in the assessment of the relative radiopacity of dental cements used as liners or bases compared to human enamel and dentin. Disks of 15 different dental cements, 5 mm in diameter and 2 mm thick, were exposed to radiation together with 2-mm-thick disks of enamel and dentin and an aluminum step wedge. Density was evaluated by digital transmission densitometry and with the histogram function of an image analysis program following digitization of the radiographs with a flatbed scanner. A higher number of dental cements were discriminated from both dentin and enamel with conventional radiographic densitometer. All the cements examined, except Ionoseal (Voco) and Ionobond (Voco), were more radiopaque than dentin. With both methods, Chelon-Silver (3M ESPE) had the highest radiopacity and glass-ionomer cements the lowest. Radiodensity of dental cements can be differentiated with a high probability with the conventional radiometric method.

Design, fabrication and characterization of oxidized alginate-gelatin hydrogels for muscle tissue engineering applications.

PubMed

Baniasadi, Hossein; Mashayekhan, Shohreh; Fadaoddini, Samira; Haghirsharifzamini, Yasamin

2016-07-01

In this study, we reported the preparation of self cross-linked oxidized alginate-gelatin hydrogels for muscle tissue engineering. The effect of oxidation degree (OD) and oxidized alginate/gelatin (OA/GEL) weight ratio were examined and the results showed that in the constant OA/GEL weight ratio, both cross-linking density and Young's modulus enhanced by increasing OD due to increment of aldehyde groups. Furthermore, the degradation rate was increased with increasing OD probably due to decrement in alginate molecular weight during oxidation reaction facilitated degradation of alginate chains. MTT cytotoxicity assays performed on Wharton's Jelly-derived umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells cultured on hydrogels with OD of 30% showed that the highest rate of cell proliferation belong to hydrogel with OA/GEL weight ratio of 30/70. Overall, it can be concluded from all obtained results that the prepared hydrogel with OA/GEL weight ratio and OD of 30/70 and 30%, respectively, could be proper candidate for use in muscle tissue engineering. © The Author(s) 2016.

How often do fishes "run on empty"?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arrington, D.A.; Winemiller, K.O.; Loftus, W.F.; Akin, S.

2002-01-01

We used a large data set of African, Neotropical, and North American fishes to examine the frequency with which fishes have empty stomachs (nspecies = 254; nindividuals = 36875). Mean percentage of empty stomachs was low across all fishes (16.2 ?? 1.2%) but varied from 0% to 79.4% among individual species. Nocturnal fishes had empty stomachs more frequently than diurnal fishes. Trophic classification was strongly associated with the percentage of empty stomachs, a pattern also revealed from an intraspecific analysis. Fishes appear to adjust their feeding intervals relative to the energy density, conversion efficiency, and particle size of their food. Piscivorous fishes seem to be the only trophic group that regularly experience long periods of empty stomachs, with species that consume prey whole and those that provide extended parental care having the highest proportions of empty stomachs. Activity patterns and life histories of some piscivorous species probably have evolved in partial response to energetic benefits of large, energy-rich food resources.

A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle

PubMed Central

Mayo, Christie; Shelley, Courtney; MacLachlan, N. James; Gardner, Ian; Hartley, David; Barker, Christopher

2016-01-01

The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTV-endemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV’s basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission. PMID:27812161

Paradoxical effects of density on measurement of copper tolerance in Silene paradoxa L.

PubMed

Capuana, Maurizio; Colzi, Ilaria; Buccianti, Antonella; Coppi, Andrea; Palm, Emily; Del Bubba, Massimo; Gonnelli, Cristina

2018-01-01

This work investigated if the assessment of tolerance to trace metals can depend on plant density in the experimental design. A non-metallicolous and a metallicolous populations of Silene paradoxa were hydroponically cultivated at increasing density and in both the absence (-Cu conditions) and excess of copper (+Cu conditions). In -Cu conditions, the metallicolous population showed a lower susceptibility to plant density in comparison to the non-metallicolous one, explained by a higher capacity of the metallicolous population to exploit resources. In +Cu conditions, an alleviating effect of increasing density was found in roots. Such effect was present to a greater extent in the non-metallicolous population, thus making the populations equally copper-tolerant at the highest density used. In shoots, an additive effect of increasing plant density to copper toxicity was reported. Its higher intensity in the metallicolous population reverted the copper tolerance relationship at the highest plant densities used. In both populations, a density-induced decrease in root copper accumulation was observed, thus concurring to the reported mitigation in +Cu conditions. Our work revealed the importance of density studies on the optimization of eco-toxicological bioassays and of metal tolerance assessment and it can be considered the first example of an alleviating effect of increasing plant number on copper stress in a metallophyte.

Combining different marker densities in genomic evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate genomic evaluations are less costly if many animals are genotyped at less than the highest density and their missing genotypes filled using haplotypes. Mixed density files for 45,870 animals were examined by reducing half of young animal or all animal genotypes from the observed 43,385 mark...

To kill a kangaroo: understanding the decision to pursue high-risk/high-gain resources.

PubMed

Jones, James Holland; Bird, Rebecca Bliege; Bird, Douglas W

2013-09-22

In this paper, we attempt to understand hunter-gatherer foraging decisions about prey that vary in both the mean and variance of energy return using an expected utility framework. We show that for skewed distributions of energetic returns, the standard linear variance discounting (LVD) model for risk-sensitive foraging can produce quite misleading results. In addition to creating difficulties for the LVD model, the skewed distributions characteristic of hunting returns create challenges for estimating probability distribution functions required for expected utility. We present a solution using a two-component finite mixture model for foraging returns. We then use detailed foraging returns data based on focal follows of individual hunters in Western Australia hunting for high-risk/high-gain (hill kangaroo) and relatively low-risk/low-gain (sand monitor) prey. Using probability densities for the two resources estimated from the mixture models, combined with theoretically sensible utility curves characterized by diminishing marginal utility for the highest returns, we find that the expected utility of the sand monitors greatly exceeds that of kangaroos despite the fact that the mean energy return for kangaroos is nearly twice as large as that for sand monitors. We conclude that the decision to hunt hill kangaroos does not arise simply as part of an energetic utility-maximization strategy and that additional social, political or symbolic benefits must accrue to hunters of this highly variable prey.

Impacts of Atmospheric Mercury Deposition on Human Multimedia Exposure: Projection from Observations in the Pearl River Delta Region, South China.

PubMed

Huang, Minjuan; Deng, Sixin; Dong, Hanying; Dai, Wei; Pang, Jiongming; Wang, Xuemei

2016-10-04

A preliminary projection was performed to determine human multimedia exposure to mercury (Hg) based on deposition flux observations and to identify the impacts of atmospheric Hg deposition in Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, South China. The Monte Carlo technique was used to propagate the variability throughout the projection. The regional specific probability density functions (PDFs) of the studied parameters were regressed from the provincial/national published data, except when the data were deficient. The atmospheric Hg deposition flux ranged from 43.70 to 321.19 μg/m 2 /year and did not significantly contribute to Hg accumulation in the regional topsoil, freshwater bodies, and most food items except fish. The consumption of fish and milk/dairy products was the major contributor to the total exposure for adults (>18 years)/6- to 12-year children and 0- to 6-year children, respectively. The projected concentrations and exposure levels were the results combining MeHg and inorganic Hg (Hg 2+ ). Under the 30-year projection, the probability of risks caused by Hg deposition (combining Hg 2+ and MeHg) was the highest for 0- to 6-year children, followed by 6- to 12-year children and adults. The ground effects driven by precipitation had a significantly greater effect relative to the mass transport effects in this region.

Social Capital and the Trade Unions: Reciprocity, or Understanding the Ties that Bind Us?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whaites, Michael

2005-01-01

Australia once enjoyed the highest union density in the world but is now facing a "crisis of membership". Trade union membership and density have been in decline in Australia since the late 1970s with a 50 percent decrease in density since 1990. The Australian Bureau of Statistics currently puts trade union density at around 25 percent…

Predicting Coral Recruitment in Palau’s Complex Reef Archipelago

PubMed Central

Golbuu, Yimnang; Wolanski, Eric; Idechong, Jacques Wasai; Victor, Steven; Isechal, Adelle Lukes; Oldiais, Noelle Wenty; Idip, David; Richmond, Robert H.; van Woesik, Robert

2012-01-01

Reproduction and recruitment are key processes that replenish marine populations. Here we use the Palau archipelago, in the western Pacific Ocean, as a case study to examine scales of connectivity and to determine whether an oceanographic model, incorporating the complex reef architecture, is a useful predictor of coral recruitment. We tested the hypothesis that the reefs with the highest retention also had the highest densities of juvenile coral density from 80 field sites. Field comparisons showed a significant correlation between the densities of juvenile Acropora colonies and total larval recruitment derived from the model (i.e., calculated as the sum of the densities of larvae that self-seeded and recruited from the other reefs in the archipelago). Long-distance larval imports may be too infrequent to sustain coral populations, but are critical for recovery in times of extreme local stress. PMID:23209842

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bremer, J. E.; Harter, T.

2012-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30% of households are served by a septic (onsite) wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities), shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens).

An investigation of student understanding of classical ideas related to quantum mechanics: Potential energy diagrams and spatial probability density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephanik, Brian Michael

This dissertation describes the results of two related investigations into introductory student understanding of ideas from classical physics that are key elements of quantum mechanics. One investigation probes the extent to which students are able to interpret and apply potential energy diagrams (i.e., graphs of potential energy versus position). The other probes the extent to which students are able to reason classically about probability and spatial probability density. The results of these investigations revealed significant conceptual and reasoning difficulties that students encounter with these topics. The findings guided the design of instructional materials to address the major problems. Results from post-instructional assessments are presented that illustrate the impact of the curricula on student learning.

Analytical approach to an integrate-and-fire model with spike-triggered adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalger, Tilo; Lindner, Benjamin

2015-12-01

The calculation of the steady-state probability density for multidimensional stochastic systems that do not obey detailed balance is a difficult problem. Here we present the analytical derivation of the stationary joint and various marginal probability densities for a stochastic neuron model with adaptation current. Our approach assumes weak noise but is valid for arbitrary adaptation strength and time scale. The theory predicts several effects of adaptation on the statistics of the membrane potential of a tonically firing neuron: (i) a membrane potential distribution with a convex shape, (ii) a strongly increased probability of hyperpolarized membrane potentials induced by strong and fast adaptation, and (iii) a maximized variability associated with the adaptation current at a finite adaptation time scale.

Deployment Design of Wireless Sensor Network for Simple Multi-Point Surveillance of a Moving Target

PubMed Central

Tsukamoto, Kazuya; Ueda, Hirofumi; Tamura, Hitomi; Kawahara, Kenji; Oie, Yuji

2009-01-01

In this paper, we focus on the problem of tracking a moving target in a wireless sensor network (WSN), in which the capability of each sensor is relatively limited, to construct large-scale WSNs at a reasonable cost. We first propose two simple multi-point surveillance schemes for a moving target in a WSN and demonstrate that one of the schemes can achieve high tracking probability with low power consumption. In addition, we examine the relationship between tracking probability and sensor density through simulations, and then derive an approximate expression representing the relationship. As the results, we present guidelines for sensor density, tracking probability, and the number of monitoring sensors that satisfy a variety of application demands. PMID:22412326

Estimating parameters for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

PubMed

Brown, Adrian P; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Boyd, James H

2017-07-10

Probabilistic record linkage is a process used to bring together person-based records from within the same dataset (de-duplication) or from disparate datasets using pairwise comparisons and matching probabilities. The linkage strategy and associated match probabilities are often estimated through investigations into data quality and manual inspection. However, as privacy-preserved datasets comprise encrypted data, such methods are not possible. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the probabilities and threshold values for probabilistic privacy-preserved record linkage using Bloom filters. Our method was tested through a simulation study using synthetic data, followed by an application using real-world administrative data. Synthetic datasets were generated with error rates from zero to 20% error. Our method was used to estimate parameters (probabilities and thresholds) for de-duplication linkages. Linkage quality was determined by F-measure. Each dataset was privacy-preserved using separate Bloom filters for each field. Match probabilities were estimated using the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm on the privacy-preserved data. Threshold cut-off values were determined by an extension to the EM algorithm allowing linkage quality to be estimated for each possible threshold. De-duplication linkages of each privacy-preserved dataset were performed using both estimated and calculated probabilities. Linkage quality using the F-measure at the estimated threshold values was also compared to the highest F-measure. Three large administrative datasets were used to demonstrate the applicability of the probability and threshold estimation technique on real-world data. Linkage of the synthetic datasets using the estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was comparable to the F-measure using calculated probabilities, even with up to 20% error. Linkage of the administrative datasets using estimated probabilities produced an F-measure that was higher than the F-measure using calculated probabilities. Further, the threshold estimation yielded results for F-measure that were only slightly below the highest possible for those probabilities. The method appears highly accurate across a spectrum of datasets with varying degrees of error. As there are few alternatives for parameter estimation, the approach is a major step towards providing a complete operational approach for probabilistic linkage of privacy-preserved datasets.

Fabrication and characterization of bolus material using polydimethyl-siloxane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiratma Jaya, Gede; Sutanto, Heri

2018-01-01

Bolus has been used in radiotherapy to reduce tissue harm and to increase the superficial dose for skin cancer treatment. Commonly, a bolus is made of melamine in several hospitals. In this research, polydimethyl-siloxane (PDMS) material was used for bolus fabrication. The aims of the study are to investigate bolus density, percentage surface dose and its structural strength for each various composition. In bolus preparation, bolus material used composition variation between PDMS volume and catalyst volume. Composition variation were 20:1, 22:1, 24:1, 26:1, 28:1, 30:1 and 32:1. PDMS and catalyst were mixed by chemical solution deposition method. Bolus was molded by using glass cast with the size of 10 × 10 × 0.5 cm3. Bolus density was analyzed by mass per volume equation, for bolus radiation was examined by the linear accelerator using two electron energy (5 and 7 MeV) and bolus strain and tensile strength were examined by Brookfield CT 3 machine. The results of bolus density were similar with soft tissue density, while the lowest and highest density each variation are 22:1 and 28:1. In general, the use of bolus has increased the surface dose. Percentage of surface dose at 5 MeV energy is higher than 7 MeV energy. The highest percentage of surface dose at 5 MeV energy with 0.5 and 1.0 cm bolus thickness was achieved at composition of 32:1. For strain and tensile strength result, the lowest and highest strain each variation are 22:1 and 28:1, then the lowest and highest tensile strength each variation are 32:1 and 28:1. These results is important to select composition material for bolus fabrication in radiotherapy treatment.

Photographic mark-recapture analysis of local dynamics within an open population of dolphins.

PubMed

Fearnbach, H; Durban, J; Parsons, K; Claridge, D

2012-07-01

Identifying demographic changes is important for understanding population dynamics. However, this requires long-term studies of definable populations of distinct individuals, which can be particularly challenging when studying mobile cetaceans in the marine environment. We collected photo-identification data from 19 years (1992-2010) to assess the dynamics of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) restricted to the shallow (<7 m) waters of Little Bahama Bank, northern Bahamas. This population was known to range beyond our study area, so we adopted a Bayesian mixture modeling approach to mark-recapture to identify clusters of individuals that used the area to different extents, and we specifically estimated trends in survival, recruitment, and abundance of a "resident" population with high probabilities of identification. There was a high probability (p= 0.97) of a long-term decrease in the size of this resident population from a maximum of 47 dolphins (95% highest posterior density intervals, HPDI = 29-61) in 1996 to a minimum of just 24 dolphins (95% HPDI = 14-37) in 2009, a decline of 49% (95% HPDI = approximately 5% to approximately 75%). This was driven by low per capita recruitment (average approximately 0.02) that could not compensate for relatively low apparent survival rates (average approximately 0.94). Notably, there was a significant increase in apparent mortality (approximately 5 apparent mortalities vs. approximately 2 on average) in 1999 when two intense hurricanes passed over the study area, with a high probability (p = 0.83) of a drop below the average survival probability (approximately 0.91 in 1999; approximately 0.94, on average). As such, our mark-recapture approach enabled us to make useful inference about local dynamics within an open population of bottlenose dolphins; this should be applicable to other studies challenged by sampling highly mobile individuals with heterogeneous space use.

Compositional cokriging for mapping the probability risk of groundwater contamination by nitrates.

PubMed

Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Olmo, Mario; Luque-Espinar, Juan A; Rodríguez-Galiano, Víctor

2015-11-01

Contamination by nitrates is an important cause of groundwater pollution and represents a potential risk to human health. Management decisions must be made using probability maps that assess the nitrate concentration potential of exceeding regulatory thresholds. However these maps are obtained with only a small number of sparse monitoring locations where the nitrate concentrations have been measured. It is therefore of great interest to have an efficient methodology for obtaining those probability maps. In this paper, we make use of the fact that the discrete probability density function is a compositional variable. The spatial discrete probability density function is estimated by compositional cokriging. There are several advantages in using this approach: (i) problems of classical indicator cokriging, like estimates outside the interval (0,1) and order relations, are avoided; (ii) secondary variables (e.g. aquifer parameters) can be included in the estimation of the probability maps; (iii) uncertainty maps of the probability maps can be obtained; (iv) finally there are modelling advantages because the variograms and cross-variograms of real variables that do not have the restrictions of indicator variograms and indicator cross-variograms. The methodology was applied to the Vega de Granada aquifer in Southern Spain and the advantages of the compositional cokriging approach were demonstrated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microdosimetric Analysis Confirms Similar Biological Effectiveness of External Exposure to Gamma-Rays and Internal Exposure to 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I

PubMed Central

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Manabe, Kentaro; Hamada, Nobuyuki

2014-01-01

The risk of internal exposure to 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I is of great public concern after the accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant. The relative biological effectiveness (RBE, defined herein as effectiveness of internal exposure relative to the external exposure to γ-rays) is occasionally believed to be much greater than unity due to insufficient discussions on the difference of their microdosimetric profiles. We therefore performed a Monte Carlo particle transport simulation in ideally aligned cell systems to calculate the probability densities of absorbed doses in subcellular and intranuclear scales for internal exposures to electrons emitted from 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I, as well as the external exposure to 662 keV photons. The RBE due to the inhomogeneous radioactive isotope (RI) distribution in subcellular structures and the high ionization density around the particle trajectories was then derived from the calculated microdosimetric probability density. The RBE for the bystander effect was also estimated from the probability density, considering its non-linear dose response. The RBE due to the high ionization density and that for the bystander effect were very close to 1, because the microdosimetric probability densities were nearly identical between the internal exposures and the external exposure from the 662 keV photons. On the other hand, the RBE due to the RI inhomogeneity largely depended on the intranuclear RI concentration and cell size, but their maximum possible RBE was only 1.04 even under conservative assumptions. Thus, it can be concluded from the microdosimetric viewpoint that the risk from internal exposures to 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I should be nearly equivalent to that of external exposure to γ-rays at the same absorbed dose level, as suggested in the current recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. PMID:24919099

Estimating The Probability Of Achieving Shortleaf Pine Regeneration At Variable Specified Levels

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Jean Nkouka; Michael M. Huebschmann; James M. Guldin

2002-01-01

A model was developed that can be used to estimate the probability of achieving regeneration at a variety of specified stem density levels. The model was fitted to shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) regeneration data, and can be used to estimate the probability of achieving desired levels of regeneration between 300 and 700 stems per acre 9-l 0...

Properties of Traffic Risk Coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Shang, Hua-Yan; Xue, Yu

2009-10-01

We use the model with the consideration of the traffic interruption probability (Physica A 387(2008)6845) to study the relationship between the traffic risk coefficient and the traffic interruption probability. The analytical and numerical results show that the traffic interruption probability will reduce the traffic risk coefficient and that the reduction is related to the density, which shows that this model can improve traffic security.

Probability mass first flush evaluation for combined sewer discharges.

PubMed

Park, Inhyeok; Kim, Hongmyeong; Chae, Soo-Kwon; Ha, Sungryong

2010-01-01

The Korea government has put in a lot of effort to construct sanitation facilities for controlling non-point source pollution. The first flush phenomenon is a prime example of such pollution. However, to date, several serious problems have arisen in the operation and treatment effectiveness of these facilities due to unsuitable design flow volumes and pollution loads. It is difficult to assess the optimal flow volume and pollution mass when considering both monetary and temporal limitations. The objective of this article was to characterize the discharge of storm runoff pollution from urban catchments in Korea and to estimate the probability of mass first flush (MFFn) using the storm water management model and probability density functions. As a result of the review of gauged storms for the representative using probability density function with rainfall volumes during the last two years, all the gauged storms were found to be valid representative precipitation. Both the observed MFFn and probability MFFn in BE-1 denoted similarly large magnitudes of first flush with roughly 40% of the total pollution mass contained in the first 20% of the runoff. In the case of BE-2, however, there were significant difference between the observed MFFn and probability MFFn.

Comparison of sticking probabilities of metal atoms in magnetron sputtering deposition of CuZnSnS films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, K.; Kikuchi, S.

2014-10-01

In this work, we compared the sticking probabilities of Cu, Zn, and Sn atoms in magnetron sputtering deposition of CZTS films. The evaluations of the sticking probabilities were based on the temporal decays of the Cu, Zn, and Sn densities in the afterglow, which were measured by laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy. Linear relationships were found between the discharge pressure and the lifetimes of the atom densities. According to Chantry, the sticking probability is evaluated from the extrapolated lifetime at the zero pressure, which is given by 2l0 (2 - α) / (v α) with α, l0, and v being the sticking probability, the ratio between the volume and the surface area of the chamber, and the mean velocity, respectively. The ratio of the extrapolated lifetimes observed experimentally was τCu :τSn :τZn = 1 : 1 . 3 : 1 . This ratio coincides well with the ratio of the reciprocals of their mean velocities (1 /vCu : 1 /vSn : 1 /vZn = 1 . 00 : 1 . 37 : 1 . 01). Therefore, the present experimental result suggests that the sticking probabilities of Cu, Sn, and Zn are roughly the same.

Statistical analysis of dislocations and dislocation boundaries from EBSD data.

PubMed

Moussa, C; Bernacki, M; Besnard, R; Bozzolo, N

2017-08-01

Electron BackScatter Diffraction (EBSD) is often used for semi-quantitative analysis of dislocations in metals. In general, disorientation is used to assess Geometrically Necessary Dislocations (GNDs) densities. In the present paper, we demonstrate that the use of disorientation can lead to inaccurate results. For example, using the disorientation leads to different GND density in recrystallized grains which cannot be physically justified. The use of disorientation gradients allows accounting for measurement noise and leads to more accurate results. Misorientation gradient is then used to analyze dislocations boundaries following the same principle applied on TEM data before. In previous papers, dislocations boundaries were defined as Geometrically Necessary Boundaries (GNBs) and Incidental Dislocation Boundaries (IDBs). It has been demonstrated in the past, through transmission electron microscopy data, that the probability density distribution of the disorientation of IDBs and GNBs can be described with a linear combination of two Rayleigh functions. Such function can also describe the probability density of disorientation gradient obtained through EBSD data as reported in this paper. This opens the route for determining IDBs and GNBs probability density distribution functions separately from EBSD data, with an increased statistical relevance as compared to TEM data. The method is applied on deformed Tantalum where grains exhibit dislocation boundaries, as observed using electron channeling contrast imaging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relations between sinkhole density and anthropogenic contaminants in selected carbonate aquifers in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindsey, Bruce D.; Katz, Brian G.; Berndt, Marian P.; Ardis, Ann F.; Skach, Kenneth A.

2009-01-01

The relation between sinkhole density and water quality was investigated in seven selected carbonate aquifers in the eastern United States. Sinkhole density for these aquifers was grouped into high (>25 sinkholes/100 km2), medium (1–25 sinkholes/100 km2), or low (2) categories using a geographical information system that included four independent databases covering parts of Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Field measurements and concentrations of major ions, nitrate, and selected pesticides in samples from 451 wells and 70 springs were included in the water-quality database. Data were collected as a part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Areas with high and medium sinkhole density had the greatest well depths and depths to water, the lowest concentrations of total dissolved solids and bicarbonate, the highest concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and the lowest partial pressure of CO2 compared to areas with low sinkhole density. These chemical indicators are consistent conceptually with a conduit-flow-dominated system in areas with a high density of sinkholes and a diffuse-flow-dominated system in areas with a low density of sinkholes. Higher cave density and spring discharge in Pennsylvania also support the concept that the high sinkhole density areas are dominated by conduit-flow systems. Concentrations of nitrate-N were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in areas with high and medium sinkhole density than in low sinkhole-density areas; when accounting for the variations in land use near the sampling sites, the high sinkhole-density area still had higher concentrations of nitrate-N than the low sinkhole-density area. Detection frequencies of atrazine, simazine, metolachlor, prometon, and the atrazine degradate deethylatrazine indicated a pattern similar to nitrate; highest pesticide detections were associated with high sinkhole-density areas. These patterns generally persisted when analyzing the detection frequency by land-use groups, particularly for agricultural land-use areas where pesticide use would be expected to be higher and more uniform areally compared to urban and forested areas. Although areas with agricultural land use and a high sinkhole density were most vulnerable (median nitrate-N concentration was 3.7 mg/L, 11% of samples exceeded 10 mg/L, and had the highest frequencies of pesticide detection), areas with agricultural land use and low sinkhole density still were vulnerable to contamination (median nitrate-N concentration was 1.5 mg/L, 8% of samples exceeded 10 mg/L, and had some of the highest frequencies of detections of pesticides). This may be due in part to incomplete or missing data regarding karst features (such as buried sinkholes, low-permeability material in bottom of sinkholes) that do not show up at the scales used for regional mapping and to inconsistent methods among states in karst feature delineation.

Use of Probability Distribution Functions for Discriminating Between Cloud and Aerosol in Lidar Backscatter Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Zhaoyan; Vaughan, Mark A.; Winker, Davd M.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Poole, Lamont R.; Hlavka, Dennis; Hart, William; McGill, Mathew

2004-01-01

In this paper we describe the algorithm hat will be used during the upcoming Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission for discriminating between clouds and aerosols detected in two wavelength backscatter lidar profiles. We first analyze single-test and multiple-test classification approaches based on one-dimensional and multiple-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in the context of a two-class feature identification scheme. From these studies we derive an operational algorithm based on a set of 3-dimensional probability distribution functions characteristic of clouds and aerosols. A dataset acquired by the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) is used to test the algorithm. Comparisons are conducted between the CALIPSO algorithm results and the CPL data product. The results obtained show generally good agreement between the two methods. However, of a total of 228,264 layers analyzed, approximately 5.7% are classified as different types by the CALIPSO and CPL algorithm. This disparity is shown to be due largely to the misclassification of clouds as aerosols by the CPL algorithm. The use of 3-dimensional PDFs in the CALIPSO algorithm is found to significantly reduce this type of error. Dust presents a special case. Because the intrinsic scattering properties of dust layers can be very similar to those of clouds, additional algorithm testing was performed using an optically dense layer of Saharan dust measured during the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). In general, the method is shown to distinguish reliably between dust layers and clouds. The relatively few erroneous classifications occurred most often in the LITE data, in those regions of the Saharan dust layer where the optical thickness was the highest.

Distribution of Marburg virus in Africa: An evolutionary approach.

PubMed

Zehender, Gianguglielmo; Sorrentino, Chiara; Veo, Carla; Fiaschi, Lisa; Gioffrè, Sonia; Ebranati, Erika; Tanzi, Elisabetta; Ciccozzi, Massimo; Lai, Alessia; Galli, Massimo

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the origin and geographical dispersion of Marburg virus, the first member of the Filoviridae family to be discovered. Seventy-three complete genome sequences of Marburg virus isolated from animals and humans were retrieved from public databases and analysed using a Bayesian phylogeographical framework. The phylogenetic tree of the Marburg virus data set showed two significant evolutionary lineages: Ravn virus (RAVV) and Marburg virus (MARV). MARV divided into two main clades; clade A included isolates from Uganda (five from the European epidemic in 1967), Kenya (1980) and Angola (from the epidemic of 2004-2005); clade B included most of the isolates obtained during the 1999-2000 epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and a group of Ugandan isolates obtained in 2007-2009. The estimated mean evolutionary rate of the whole genome was 3.3×10(-4) substitutions/site/year (credibility interval 2.0-4.8). The MARV strain had a mean root time of the most recent common ancestor of 177.9years ago (YA) (95% highest posterior density 87-284), thus indicating that it probably originated in the mid-XIX century, whereas the RAVV strain had a later origin dating back to a mean 33.8 YA. The most probable location of the MARV ancestor was Uganda (state posterior probability, spp=0.41), whereas that of the RAVV ancestor was Kenya (spp=0.71). There were significant migration rates from Uganda to the DRC (Bayes Factor, BF=42.0) and in the opposite direction (BF=5.7). Our data suggest that Uganda may have been the cradle of Marburg virus in Africa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying desertification risk areas using fuzzy membership and geospatial technique - A case study, Kota District, Rajasthan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasgupta, Arunima; Sastry, K. L. N.; Dhinwa, P. S.; Rathore, V. S.; Nathawat, M. S.

2013-08-01

Desertification risk assessment is important in order to take proper measures for its prevention. Present research intends to identify the areas under risk of desertification along with their severity in terms of degradation in natural parameters. An integrated model with fuzzy membership analysis, fuzzy rule-based inference system and geospatial techniques was adopted, including five specific natural parameters namely slope, soil pH, soil depth, soil texture and NDVI. Individual parameters were classified according to their deviation from mean. Membership of each individual values to be in a certain class was derived using the normal probability density function of that class. Thus if a single class of a single parameter is with mean μ and standard deviation σ, the values falling beyond μ + 2 σ and μ - 2 σ are not representing that class, but a transitional zone between two subsequent classes. These are the most important areas in terms of degradation, as they have the lowest probability to be in a certain class, hence highest probability to be extended or narrowed down in next or previous class respectively. Eventually, these are the values which can be easily altered, under extrogenic influences, hence are identified as risk areas. The overall desertification risk is derived by incorporating the different risk severity of each parameter using fuzzy rule-based interference system in GIS environment. Multicriteria based geo-statistics are applied to locate the areas under different severity of desertification risk. The study revealed that in Kota, various anthropogenic pressures are accelerating land deterioration, coupled with natural erosive forces. Four major sources of desertification in Kota are, namely Gully and Ravine erosion, inappropriate mining practices, growing urbanization and random deforestation.

Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes with identical spectral density but different probability density functions.

PubMed

Lei, Youming; Zheng, Fan

2016-12-01

Stochastic chaos induced by diffusion processes, with identical spectral density but different probability density functions (PDFs), is investigated in selected lightly damped Hamiltonian systems. The threshold amplitude of diffusion processes for the onset of chaos is derived by using the stochastic Melnikov method together with a mean-square criterion. Two quasi-Hamiltonian systems, namely, a damped single pendulum and damped Duffing oscillator perturbed by stochastic excitations, are used as illustrative examples. Four different cases of stochastic processes are taking as the driving excitations. It is shown that in such two systems the spectral density of diffusion processes completely determines the threshold amplitude for chaos, regardless of the shape of their PDFs, Gaussian or otherwise. Furthermore, the mean top Lyapunov exponent is employed to verify analytical results. The results obtained by numerical simulations are in accordance with the analytical results. This demonstrates that the stochastic Melnikov method is effective in predicting the onset of chaos in the quasi-Hamiltonian systems.

Nonparametric Density Estimation Based on Self-Organizing Incremental Neural Network for Large Noisy Data.

PubMed

Nakamura, Yoshihiro; Hasegawa, Osamu

2017-01-01

With the ongoing development and expansion of communication networks and sensors, massive amounts of data are continuously generated in real time from real environments. Beforehand, prediction of a distribution underlying such data is difficult; furthermore, the data include substantial amounts of noise. These factors make it difficult to estimate probability densities. To handle these issues and massive amounts of data, we propose a nonparametric density estimator that rapidly learns data online and has high robustness. Our approach is an extension of both kernel density estimation (KDE) and a self-organizing incremental neural network (SOINN); therefore, we call our approach KDESOINN. An SOINN provides a clustering method that learns about the given data as networks of prototype of data; more specifically, an SOINN can learn the distribution underlying the given data. Using this information, KDESOINN estimates the probability density function. The results of our experiments show that KDESOINN outperforms or achieves performance comparable to the current state-of-the-art approaches in terms of robustness, learning time, and accuracy.

Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2003-01-01

Some progress has been made in a continuing effort to develop mathematical models of the behaviors of multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology (e.g., systems ranging from single or a few biomolecules to many interacting higher organisms). Living systems can be characterized by nonlinear evolution of probability distributions over different possible choices of the next steps in their motions. One of the main challenges in mathematical modeling of living systems is to distinguish between random walks of purely physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) and those of biological origin. Following a line of reasoning from prior research, it has been assumed, in the present development, that a biological random walk can be represented by a nonlinear mathematical model that represents coupled mental and motor dynamics incorporating the psychological concept of reflection or self-image. The nonlinear dynamics impart the lifelike ability to behave in ways and to exhibit patterns that depart from thermodynamic equilibrium. Reflection or self-image has traditionally been recognized as a basic element of intelligence. The nonlinear mathematical models of the present development are denoted self-supervised dynamical systems. They include (1) equations of classical dynamics, including random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces, coupled with (2) the corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces, denoted supervising forces, composed of probability densities and functionals thereof. The equations of classical mechanics represent motor dynamics that is, dynamics in the traditional sense, signifying Newton s equations of motion. The evolution of the probability densities represents mental dynamics or self-image. Then the interaction between the physical and metal aspects of a monad is implemented by feedback from mental to motor dynamics, as represented by the aforementioned fictitious forces. This feedback is what makes the evolution of probability densities nonlinear. The deviation from linear evolution can be characterized, in a sense, as an expression of free will. It has been demonstrated that probability densities can approach prescribed attractors while exhibiting such patterns as shock waves, solitons, and chaos in probability space. The concept of self-supervised dynamical systems has been considered for application to diverse phenomena, including information-based neural networks, cooperation, competition, deception, games, and control of chaos. In addition, a formal similarity between the mathematical structures of self-supervised dynamical systems and of quantum-mechanical systems has been investigated.

Experiments with planar inductive ion source meant for creation of H+ beams.

PubMed

Vainionpaa, J H; Kalvas, T; Hahto, S K; Reijonen, J

2007-06-01

In this article the effects of different engineering parameters of rf-driven ion sources with an external spiral antenna and a quartz rf window are studied. This article consists of three main topics: the effect of source geometry on the operation gas pressure, the effect of source materials and magnetic confinement on extracted current density and ion species, and the effect of different antenna geometries on the extracted current density. The effect of source geometry was studied using three cylindrical plasma chambers with different inner diameters. The chamber materials were studied using two materials, aluminum (Al) and alumina (Al(2)O(3)). The removable 14 magnet multicusp confinement arrangement enabled us to compare the effects of the two wall materials with and without the magnetic confinement. The highest measured proton fractions were measured using Al(2)O(3) plasma chamber and no multicusp confinement. For the compared ion sources the source with multicusp confinement and Al(2)O(3) plasma chamber yields the highest current densities. Multicusp confinement increased the maximum extracted current by up to a factor of 2. Plasma production with different antenna geometries were also studied. The highest current density was achieved using 4.5 loop solenoid antenna with 6.0 cm diameter. A slightly lower current density with lower pressure was achieved using a tightly wound 3 loop spiral antenna with 3.3 cm inner diameter and 6 cm outer diameter.

Benthic metabolism over the emersion - immersion alternation in sands colonized by the invasive Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migné, Aline; Trigui, Rima Jihane; Davoult, Dominique; Desroy, Nicolas

2018-01-01

The effect of an invasive infaunal suspension-feeding bivalve, the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum, on benthic inorganic carbon and nutrient fluxes was examined through in situ incubations. Measurements were performed in spring and summer on a tidal sandflat of the Rance estuary (south part of the Western English Channel) colonized by the Manila clam after its deliberate introduction in the 1990's. Benthic inorganic carbon fluxes were measured using light and dark benthic chambers both at emersion and immersion. Benthic nutrient fluxes were measured using dark benthic chambers at immersion. Inorganic carbon (IC) and ammonium sediment release under darkness at immersion reached 5.60 mmol m-2 h-1 and 441 μmol m-2 h-1 respectively for a clam density of 291 ind m-2. The sediment IC-release under darkness was lower during emersion than during immersion, probably due to the reduced activity of infauna at low tide. Under ambient light, a sediment IC-uptake was systematically measured at emersion, indicating a net autotrophy under the condition of measurements (125 < surface PAR < 1670 μmol m-2 s-1), while either sediment IC-uptake or release was measured at immersion according to light variation (20 < underwater PAR < 990 μmol m-2 s-1). The highest gross community primary production, calculated from highest IC-fluxes at light (i.e. net community production) and highest IC-fluxes at dark (i.e. community respiration), was similar at emersion and immersion and reached 6.2 mmolC m-2 h-1. These results suggest that the metabolic activity of the invasive Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum contributes to increase inorganic C and ammonium sediment release. These regenerated nutrients may support microphytobenthic production which appeared particularly high on this intertidal sand flat.

Impacts of mangrove density on surface sediment accretion, belowground biomass and biogeochemistry in Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, D.H.; Kumara, M.P.; Jayatissa, L.P.; Krauss, Ken W.; Huxham, M.

2017-01-01

Understanding the effects of seedling density on sediment accretion, biogeochemistry and belowground biomass in mangrove systems can help explain ecological functioning and inform appropriate planting densities during restoration or climate change mitigation programs. The objectives of this study were to examine: 1) impacts of mangrove seedling density on surface sediment accretion, texture, belowground biomass and biogeochemistry, and 2) origins of the carbon (C) supplied to the mangroves in Palakuda, Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka. Rhizophora mucronata propagules were planted at densities of 6.96, 3.26, 1.93 and 0.95 seedlings m−2along with an unplanted control (0 seedlings m−2). The highest seedling density generally had higher sediment accretion rates, finer sediments, higher belowground biomass, greatest number of fine roots and highest concentrations of C and nitrogen (N) (and the lowest C/N ratio). Sediment accretion rates, belowground biomass (over 1370 days), and C and N concentrations differed significantly between seedling densities. Fine roots were significantly greater compared to medium and coarse roots across all plantation densities. Sulphur and carbon stable isotopes did not vary significantly between different density treatments. Isotope signatures suggest surface sediment C (to a depth of 1 cm) is not derived predominantly from the trees, but from seagrass adjacent to the site.

A Semi-Analytical Method for the PDFs of A Ship Rolling in Random Oblique Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li-qin; Liu, Ya-liu; Xu, Wan-hai; Li, Yan; Tang, You-gang

2018-03-01

The PDFs (probability density functions) and probability of a ship rolling under the random parametric and forced excitations were studied by a semi-analytical method. The rolling motion equation of the ship in random oblique waves was established. The righting arm obtained by the numerical simulation was approximately fitted by an analytical function. The irregular waves were decomposed into two Gauss stationary random processes, and the CARMA (2, 1) model was used to fit the spectral density function of parametric and forced excitations. The stochastic energy envelope averaging method was used to solve the PDFs and the probability. The validity of the semi-analytical method was verified by the Monte Carlo method. The C11 ship was taken as an example, and the influences of the system parameters on the PDFs and probability were analyzed. The results show that the probability of ship rolling is affected by the characteristic wave height, wave length, and the heading angle. In order to provide proper advice for the ship's manoeuvring, the parametric excitations should be considered appropriately when the ship navigates in the oblique seas.

Huge critical current density and tailored superconducting anisotropy in SmFeAsO₀.₈F₀.₁₅ by low-density columnar-defect incorporation.

PubMed

Fang, L; Jia, Y; Mishra, V; Chaparro, C; Vlasko-Vlasov, V K; Koshelev, A E; Welp, U; Crabtree, G W; Zhu, S; Zhigadlo, N D; Katrych, S; Karpinski, J; Kwok, W K

2013-01-01

Iron-based superconductors could be useful for electricity distribution and superconducting magnet applications because of their relatively high critical current densities and upper critical fields. SmFeAsO₀.₈F₀.₁₅ is of particular interest as it has the highest transition temperature among these materials. Here we show that by introducing a low density of correlated nano-scale defects into this material by heavy-ion irradiation, we can increase its critical current density to up to 2 × 10⁷ A cm⁻² at 5 K--the highest ever reported for an iron-based superconductor--without reducing its critical temperature of 50 K. We also observe a notable reduction in the thermodynamic superconducting anisotropy, from 8 to 4 upon irradiation. We develop a model based on anisotropic electron scattering that predicts that the superconducting anisotropy can be tailored via correlated defects in semimetallic, fully gapped type II superconductors.

Quantum mechanical probability current as electromagnetic 4-current from topological EM fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Mark, Martin B.

2015-09-01

Starting from a complex 4-potential A = αdβ we show that the 4-current density in electromagnetism and the probability current density in relativistic quantum mechanics are of identical form. With the Dirac-Clifford algebra Cl1,3 as mathematical basis, the given 4-potential allows topological solutions of the fields, quite similar to Bateman's construction, but with a double field solution that was overlooked previously. A more general nullvector condition is found and wave-functions of charged and neutral particles appear as topological configurations of the electromagnetic fields.

First-passage problems: A probabilistic dynamic analysis for degraded structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1990-01-01

Structures subjected to random excitations with uncertain system parameters degraded by surrounding environments (a random time history) are studied. Methods are developed to determine the statistics of dynamic responses, such as the time-varying mean, the standard deviation, the autocorrelation functions, and the joint probability density function of any response and its derivative. Moreover, the first-passage problems with deterministic and stationary/evolutionary random barriers are evaluated. The time-varying (joint) mean crossing rate and the probability density function of the first-passage time for various random barriers are derived.

Spectral Discrete Probability Density Function of Measured Wind Turbine Noise in the Far Field

PubMed Central

Ashtiani, Payam; Denison, Adelaide

2015-01-01

Of interest is the spectral character of wind turbine noise at typical residential set-back distances. In this paper, a spectral statistical analysis has been applied to immission measurements conducted at three locations. This method provides discrete probability density functions for the Turbine ONLY component of the measured noise. This analysis is completed for one-third octave sound levels, at integer wind speeds, and is compared to existing metrics for measuring acoustic comfort as well as previous discussions on low-frequency noise sources. PMID:25905097

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

2012-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and distance x sex on detection probability). These numbers translate to a total estimate of 293 mountain lions (95% Cl 182–451) to 529 (95% Cl 245–870) within the Blackfoot drainage. Results from the distance model are similar to previous estimates of 3.6 mountain lions/100 km2 for the study area; however, results from all other models indicated greater numbers of mountain lions. Our results indicate that unstructured spatial sampling combined with spatial capture–recapture analysis can be an effective method for estimating large carnivore densities.

Probability density function learning by unsupervised neurons.

PubMed

Fiori, S

2001-10-01

In a recent work, we introduced the concept of pseudo-polynomial adaptive activation function neuron (FAN) and presented an unsupervised information-theoretic learning theory for such structure. The learning model is based on entropy optimization and provides a way of learning probability distributions from incomplete data. The aim of the present paper is to illustrate some theoretical features of the FAN neuron, to extend its learning theory to asymmetrical density function approximation, and to provide an analytical and numerical comparison with other known density function estimation methods, with special emphasis to the universal approximation ability. The paper also provides a survey of PDF learning from incomplete data, as well as results of several experiments performed on real-world problems and signals.

Random function representation of stationary stochastic vector processes for probability density evolution analysis of wind-induced structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhangjun; Liu, Zenghui

2018-06-01

This paper develops a hybrid approach of spectral representation and random function for simulating stationary stochastic vector processes. In the proposed approach, the high-dimensional random variables, included in the original spectral representation (OSR) formula, could be effectively reduced to only two elementary random variables by introducing the random functions that serve as random constraints. Based on this, a satisfactory simulation accuracy can be guaranteed by selecting a small representative point set of the elementary random variables. The probability information of the stochastic excitations can be fully emerged through just several hundred of sample functions generated by the proposed approach. Therefore, combined with the probability density evolution method (PDEM), it could be able to implement dynamic response analysis and reliability assessment of engineering structures. For illustrative purposes, a stochastic turbulence wind velocity field acting on a frame-shear-wall structure is simulated by constructing three types of random functions to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach. Careful and in-depth studies concerning the probability density evolution analysis of the wind-induced structure have been conducted so as to better illustrate the application prospects of the proposed approach. Numerical examples also show that the proposed approach possesses a good robustness.

Causal illusions in children when the outcome is frequent

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually unrelated. One factor that has been shown to promote these mistaken beliefs is the outcome probability. Thus, people tend to overestimate the strength of a causal relation when the potential consequence (i.e. the outcome) occurs with a high probability (outcome-density bias). Given that children and adults differ in several important features involved in causal judgment, including prior knowledge and basic cognitive skills, developmental studies can be considered an outstanding approach to detect and further explore the psychological processes and mechanisms underlying this bias. However, the outcome density bias has been mainly explored in adulthood, and no previous evidence for this bias has been reported in children. Thus, the purpose of this study was to extend outcome-density bias research to childhood. In two experiments, children between 6 and 8 years old were exposed to two similar setups, both showing a non-contingent relation between the potential cause and the outcome. These two scenarios differed only in the probability of the outcome, which could either be high or low. Children judged the relation between the two events to be stronger in the high probability of the outcome setting, revealing that, like adults, they develop causal illusions when the outcome is frequent. PMID:28898294

Twin density of aragonite in molluscan shells characterized using X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogure, Toshihiro; Suzuki, Michio; Kim, Hyejin; Mukai, Hiroki; Checa, Antonio G.; Sasaki, Takenori; Nagasawa, Hiromichi

2014-07-01

{110} twin density in aragonites constituting various microstructures of molluscan shells has been characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM), to find the factors that determine the density in the shells. Several aragonite crystals of geological origin were also investigated for comparison. The twin density is strongly dependent on the microstructures and species of the shells. The nacreous structure has a very low twin density regardless of the shell classes. On the other hand, the twin density in the crossed-lamellar (CL) structure has large variation among classes or subclasses, which is mainly related to the crystallographic direction of the constituting aragonite fibers. TEM observation suggests two types of twin structures in aragonite crystals with dense {110} twins: rather regulated polysynthetic twins with parallel twin planes, and unregulated polycyclic ones with two or three directions for the twin planes. The former is probably characteristic in the CL structures of specific subclasses of Gastropoda. The latter type is probably related to the crystal boundaries dominated by (hk0) interfaces in the microstructures with preferred orientation of the c-axis, and the twin density is mainly correlated to the crystal size in the microstructures.

A zonation technique for landslide susceptibility in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Jie-Lun; Tian, Yu-Qing; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung

2016-04-01

In recent years, global climate changes violently, extreme rainfall events occur frequently and also cause massive sediment related disasters in Taiwan. The disaster seriously hit the regional economic development and national infrastructures. For example, in August, 2009, the typhoon Morakot brought massive rainfall especially in the mountains in Chiayi County and Kaohsiung County in which the cumulative maximum rainfall was up to 2900 mm; meanwhile, the cumulative maximum rainfall was over 1500m.m. in Nantou County, Tainan County and Pingtung County. The typhoon caused severe damage in southern Taiwan. The study will search for the influence on the sediment hazards caused by the extreme rainfall and hydrological environmental changes focusing on southern Taiwan (including Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung). The instability index and kriging theories are applied to analyze the factors of landslide to determine the susceptibility in southern Taiwan. We collected the landslide records during the period year, 2007~2013 and analyzed the instability factors including elevation, slope, aspect, soil, and geology. Among these factors, slope got the highest weight. The steeper the slope is, the more the landslides occur. As for the factor of aspect, the highest probability falls on the Southwest. However, this factor has the lowest weight among all the factors. Likewise, Darkish colluvial soil holds the highest probability of collapses among all the soils. Miocene middle Ruifang group and its equivalents have the highest probability of collapses among all the geologies. In this study, Kriging was used to establish the susceptibility map in southern Taiwan. The instability index above 4.21 can correspond to those landslide records. The potential landslide area in southern Taiwan, where collapses more likely occur, belongs to high level and medium-high level; the area is 5.12% and 17.81% respectively.

A probability space for quantum models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmens, L. F.

2017-06-01

A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

Design and simulation of stratified probability digital receiver with application to the multipath communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deal, J. H.

1975-01-01

One approach to the problem of simplifying complex nonlinear filtering algorithms is through using stratified probability approximations where the continuous probability density functions of certain random variables are represented by discrete mass approximations. This technique is developed in this paper and used to simplify the filtering algorithms developed for the optimum receiver for signals corrupted by both additive and multiplicative noise.

Corn pollen deposition on milkweeds in and near cornfields.

PubMed

Pleasants, J M; Hellmich, R L; Dively, G P; Sears, M K; Stanley-Horn, D E; Mattila, H R; Foster, J E; Clark, P; Jones, G D

2001-10-09

The density of corn pollen on leaves of milkweed plants inside and outside of cornfields was measured in several studies from different localities. The purpose was to obtain a representative picture of naturally occurring pollen densities to provide a perspective for laboratory and field studies of monarch larvae feeding on milkweed leaves with Bt corn pollen. Pollen density was highest (average 170.6 grains per cm(2)) inside the cornfield and was progressively lower from the field edge outward, falling to 14.2 grains per cm(2) at 2 m. Inside the cornfield, and for each distance from the field edge, a frequency distribution is presented showing the proportion of leaf samples with different pollen densities. Inside cornfields, 95% of leaf samples had pollen densities below 600 grains per cm(2) and the highest pollen density observed was 1400 grains per cm(2), which occurred in a study with a rainless anthesis period. All other studies had rainfall events during the anthesis period. A single rain event can remove 54-86% of the pollen on leaves. Leaves on the upper portion of milkweed plants, where young monarch larvae tend to feed, had only 30-50% of the pollen density levels of middle leaves.

Effect of blend ratio of PP/kapok blend nonwoven fabrics on oil sorption capacity.

PubMed

Lee, Young-Hee; Kim, Ji-Soo; Kim, Do-Hyung; Shin, Min-Seung; Jung, Young-Jin; Lee, Dong-Jin; Kim, Han-Do

2013-01-01

More research and development on novel oil sorbent materials is needed to protect the environmental pollution. New nonwoven fabrics (pads) of polypropylene (PP)/kapok blends (blend ratio: 100/0, 75/25, 50/50, 25/75 and 10/90) were prepared by needle punching process at a fixed (optimized) condition (punch density: 50 punches/cm2 and depth: 4mm). This study focused on the effect of blend ratio of PP/kapok nonwoven fabrics on oil sorption capacities to find the best blend ratio having the highest synergy effect. The PP/kapok blend (50/50) sample has the lowest bulk density and showed the best oil absorption capacity. The oil sorption capacity of PP/kapok blend (50/50) nonwoven fabric for kerosene/soybean oil [21.09/27.01 (g oil/g sorbent)] was 1.5-2 times higher than those of commercial PP pad oil sorbents. The highest synergy effect of PP/kapok blend (50/50) was ascribed to the lowest bulk density of PP/kapok blend (50/50), which might be due to the highest morphologically incompatibility between PP fibre and kapok. These results suggest that the PP/kapok blend (50/50) having the highest synergy effect has a high potential as a new high-performance oil sorbent material.

Spacecraft Collision Avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussy-Virat, Charles

The rapid increase of the number of objects in orbit around the Earth poses a serious threat to operational spacecraft and astronauts. In order to effectively avoid collisions, mission operators need to assess the risk of collision between the satellite and any other object whose orbit is likely to approach its trajectory. Several algorithms predict the probability of collision but have limitations that impair the accuracy of the prediction. An important limitation is that uncertainties in the atmospheric density are usually not taken into account in the propagation of the covariance matrix from current epoch to closest approach time. The Spacecraft Orbital Characterization Kit (SpOCK) was developed to accurately predict the positions and velocities of spacecraft. The central capability of SpOCK is a high accuracy numerical propagator of spacecraft orbits and computations of ancillary parameters. The numerical integration uses a comprehensive modeling of the dynamics of spacecraft in orbit that includes all the perturbing forces that a spacecraft is subject to in orbit. In particular, the atmospheric density is modeled by thermospheric models to allow for an accurate representation of the atmospheric drag. SpOCK predicts the probability of collision between two orbiting objects taking into account the uncertainties in the atmospheric density. Monte Carlo procedures are used to perturb the initial position and velocity of the primary and secondary spacecraft from their covariance matrices. Developed in C, SpOCK supports parallelism to quickly assess the risk of collision so it can be used operationally in real time. The upper atmosphere of the Earth is strongly driven by the solar activity. In particular, abrupt transitions from slow to fast solar wind cause important disturbances of the atmospheric density, hence of the drag acceleration that spacecraft are subject to. The Probability Distribution Function (PDF) model was developed to predict the solar wind speed five days in advance. In particular, the PDF model is able to predict rapid enhancements in the solar wind speed. It was found that 60% of the positive predictions were correct, while 91% of the negative predictions were correct, and 20% to 33% of the peaks in the speed were found by the model. En-semble forecasts provide the forecasters with an estimation of the uncertainty in the prediction, which can be used to derive uncertainties in the atmospheric density and in the drag acceleration. The dissertation then demonstrates that uncertainties in the atmospheric density result in large uncertainties in the prediction of the probability of collision. As an example, the effects of a geomagnetic storm on the probability of collision are illustrated. The research aims at providing tools and analyses that help understand and predict the effects of uncertainties in the atmospheric density on the probability of collision. The ultimate motivation is to support mission operators in making the correct decision with regard to a potential collision avoidance maneuver by providing an uncertainty on the prediction of the probability of collision instead of a single value. This approach can help avoid performing unnecessary costly maneuvers, while making sure that the risk of collision is fully evaluated.

Multiple model cardinalized probability hypothesis density filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgescu, Ramona; Willett, Peter

2011-09-01

The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first-moment approximation to the multi-target Bayesian posterior distribution while the Cardinalized PHD (CPHD) filter propagates both the posterior likelihood of (an unlabeled) target state and the posterior probability mass function of the number of targets. Extensions of the PHD filter to the multiple model (MM) framework have been published and were implemented either with a Sequential Monte Carlo or a Gaussian Mixture approach. In this work, we introduce the multiple model version of the more elaborate CPHD filter. We present the derivation of the prediction and update steps of the MMCPHD particularized for the case of two target motion models and proceed to show that in the case of a single model, the new MMCPHD equations reduce to the original CPHD equations.

Brownian Motion with Active Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanczuk, Pawel; Schimansky-Geier, Lutz

2011-06-01

We study the effect of different types of fluctuation on the motion of self-propelled particles in two spatial dimensions. We distinguish between passive and active fluctuations. Passive fluctuations (e.g., thermal fluctuations) are independent of the orientation of the particle. In contrast, active ones point parallel or perpendicular to the time dependent orientation of the particle. We derive analytical expressions for the speed and velocity probability density for a generic model of active Brownian particles, which yields an increased probability of low speeds in the presence of active fluctuations in comparison to the case of purely passive fluctuations. As a consequence, we predict sharply peaked Cartesian velocity probability densities at the origin. Finally, we show that such a behavior may also occur in non-Gaussian active fluctuations and discuss briefly correlations of the fluctuating stochastic forces.

Measurement of the top-quark mass with dilepton events selected using neuroevolution at CDF.

PubMed

Aaltonen, T; Adelman, J; Akimoto, T; Albrow, M G; Alvarez González, B; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Apresyan, A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Ashmanskas, W; Attal, A; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Azzurri, P; Badgett, W; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Bartsch, V; Bauer, G; Beauchemin, P-H; Bedeschi, F; Bednar, P; Beecher, D; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Beringer, J; Bhatti, A; Binkley, M; Bisello, D; Bizjak, I; Blair, R E; Blocker, C; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Boisvert, V; Bolla, G; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brau, B; Bridgeman, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brubaker, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Budd, S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Buzatu, A; Byrum, K L; Cabrera, S; Calancha, C; Campanelli, M; Campbell, M; Canelli, F; Canepa, A; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Carron, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chang, S H; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Chlebana, F; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Chou, J P; Choudalakis, G; Chuang, S H; Chung, K; Chung, W H; Chung, Y S; Ciobanu, C I; Ciocci, M A; Clark, A; Clark, D; Compostella, G; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Copic, K; Cordelli, M; Cortiana, G; Cox, D J; Crescioli, F; Cuenca Almenar, C; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; Cully, J C; Dagenhart, D; Datta, M; Davies, T; de Barbaro, P; De Cecco, S; Deisher, A; De Lorenzo, G; Dell'orso, M; Deluca, C; Demortier, L; Deng, J; Deninno, M; Derwent, P F; di Giovanni, G P; Dionisi, C; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; D'Onofrio, M; Donati, S; Dong, P; Donini, J; Dorigo, T; Dube, S; Efron, J; Elagin, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, D; Errede, S; Eusebi, R; Fang, H C; Farrington, S; Fedorko, W T; Feild, R G; Feindt, M; Fernandez, J P; Ferrazza, C; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Furic, I; Gallinaro, M; Galyardt, J; Garberson, F; Garcia, J E; Garfinkel, A F; Genser, K; Gerberich, H; Gerdes, D; Gessler, A; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Giannetti, P; Gibson, K; Gimmell, J L; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giordani, M; Giromini, P; Giunta, M; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldschmidt, N; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gresele, A; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Grundler, U; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Gunay-Unalan, Z; Haber, C; Hahn, K; Hahn, S R; Halkiadakis, E; Han, B-Y; Han, J Y; Handler, R; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, D; Hare, M; Harper, S; Harr, R F; Harris, R M; Hartz, M; Hatakeyama, K; Hauser, J; Hays, C; Heck, M; Heijboer, A; Heinemann, B; Heinrich, J; Henderson, C; Herndon, M; Heuser, J; Hewamanage, S; Hidas, D; Hill, C S; Hirschbuehl, D; Hocker, A; Hou, S; Houlden, M; Hsu, S-C; Huffman, B T; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Huston, J; Incandela, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jha, M K; Jindariani, S; Johnson, W; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Jung, J E; Junk, T R; Kamon, T; Kar, D; Karchin, P E; Kato, Y; Kephart, R; Keung, J; Khotilovich, V; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S B; Kim, S H; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirsch, L; Klimenko, S; Knuteson, B; Ko, B R; Koay, S A; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Krop, D; Krumnack, N; Kruse, M; Krutelyov, V; Kubo, T; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N P; Kurata, M; Kusakabe, Y; Kwang, S; Laasanen, A T; Lami, S; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lander, R L; Lannon, K; Lath, A; Latino, G; Lazzizzera, I; Lecompte, T; Lee, E; Lee, S W; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Lin, C S; Linacre, J; Lindgren, M; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Litvintsev, D O; Liu, C; Liu, T; Lockyer, N S; Loginov, A; Loreti, M; Lovas, L; Lu, R-S; Lucchesi, D; Lueck, J; Luci, C; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lyons, L; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Lytken, E; Mack, P; Macqueen, D; Madrak, R; Maeshima, K; Makhoul, K; Maki, T; Maksimovic, P; Malde, S; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Margaroli, F; Marino, C; Marino, C P; Martin, A; Martin, V; Martínez, M; Martínez-Ballarín, R; Maruyama, T; Mastrandrea, P; Masubuchi, T; Mattson, M E; Mazzanti, P; McFarland, K S; McIntyre, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Menzione, A; Merkel, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Miladinovic, N; Miller, R; Mills, C; Milnik, M; Mitra, A; Mitselmakher, G; Miyake, H; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Morlok, J; Movilla Fernandez, P; Mülmenstädt, J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Mumford, R; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Nagano, A; Naganoma, J; Nakamura, K; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Necula, V; Neu, C; Neubauer, M S; Nielsen, J; Nodulman, L; Norman, M; Norniella, O; Nurse, E; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Osterberg, K; Pagan Griso, S; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Papadimitriou, V; Papaikonomou, A; Paramonov, A A; Parks, B; Pashapour, S; Patrick, J; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Pellett, D E; Penzo, A; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pinera, L; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poukhov, O; Pounder, N; Prakoshyn, F; Pronko, A; Proudfoot, J; Ptohos, F; Pueschel, E; Punzi, G; Pursley, J; Rademacker, J; Rahaman, A; Ramakrishnan, V; Ranjan, N; Redondo, I; Reisert, B; Rekovic, V; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Richter, S; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodrigo, T; Rodriguez, T; Rogers, E; Rolli, S; Roser, R; Rossi, M; Rossin, R; Roy, P; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Saarikko, H; Safonov, A; Sakumoto, W K; Saltó, O; Santi, L; Sarkar, S; Sartori, L; Sato, K; Savoy-Navarro, A; Scheidle, T; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, A; Schmidt, E E; Schmidt, M A; Schmidt, M P; Schmitt, M; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scott, A L; Scribano, A; Scuri, F; Sedov, A; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sexton-Kennedy, L; Sfyrla, A; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shekhar, R; Shepard, P F; Sherman, D; Shimojima, M; Shiraishi, S; Shochet, M; Shon, Y; Shreyber, I; Sidoti, A; Sinervo, P; Sisakyan, A; Slaughter, A J; Slaunwhite, J; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Snihur, R; Soha, A; Somalwar, S; Sorin, V; Spalding, J; Spreitzer, T; Squillacioti, P; Stanitzki, M; St Denis, R; Stelzer, B; Stelzer-Chilton, O; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Stuart, D; Suh, J S; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Suzuki, T; Taffard, A; Takashima, R; Takeuchi, Y; Tanaka, R; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Terashi, K; Thom, J; Thompson, A S; Thompson, G A; Thomson, E; Tipton, P; Tiwari, V; Tkaczyk, S; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Tourneur, S; Tu, Y; Turini, N; Ukegawa, F; Vallecorsa, S; van Remortel, N; Varganov, A; Vataga, E; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Veszpremi, V; Vidal, M; Vidal, R; Vila, I; Vilar, R; Vine, T; Vogel, M; Volobouev, I; Volpi, G; Würthwein, F; Wagner, P; Wagner, R G; Wagner, R L; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wagner, W; Wakisaka, T; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Warburton, A; Waters, D; Weinberger, M; Wester, W C; Whitehouse, B; Whiteson, D; Whiteson, S; Wicklund, A B; Wicklund, E; Williams, G; Williams, H H; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, C; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wynne, S M; Xie, S; Yagil, A; Yamamoto, K; Yamaoka, J; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W M; Yeh, G P; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Yu, S S; Yun, J C; Zanello, L; Zanetti, A; Zaw, I; Zhang, X; Zheng, Y; Zucchelli, S

2009-04-17

We report a measurement of the top-quark mass M_{t} in the dilepton decay channel tt[over ] --> bl;{'+} nu_{l};{'}b[over ]l;{-}nu[over ]_{l}. Events are selected with a neural network which has been directly optimized for statistical precision in top-quark mass using neuroevolution, a technique modeled on biological evolution. The top-quark mass is extracted from per-event probability densities that are formed by the convolution of leading order matrix elements and detector resolution functions. The joint probability is the product of the probability densities from 344 candidate events in 2.0 fb;{-1} of pp[over ] collisions collected with the CDF II detector, yielding a measurement of M_{t} = 171.2 +/- 2.7(stat) +/- 2.9(syst) GeV / c;{2}.

A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-10-01

Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of predicted landfall locations compared with observations.

Contingent association between the size of the social support network and osteoporosis among Korean elderly women

PubMed Central

Seo, Da Hea; Kim, Kyoung Min; Lee, Eun Young; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Kim, Chang Oh; Youm, Yoosik; Rhee, Yumie

2017-01-01

Objective To investigate the association between the number of personal ties (or the size of the social support network) and the incidence of osteoporosis among older women in Korea. Methods Data from the Korean Urban Rural Elderly Study were used. Bone density was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the lumbar spine (L1–L4) and femur neck. T-score, the standardized bone density compared with what is normally expected in a healthy young adult, was measured and the presence of osteoporosis was determined, if the T-score was < -2.5. The social support network size was measured by self-responses (number of confidants and spouse). Results Of the 1,846 participants, 44.9% were diagnosed with osteoporosis. The association between the social support network size and the incidence of osteoporosis was curvilinear in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Having more people in one’s social support network size was associated with lower risk of osteoporosis until it reached around four. Increasing the social support network size beyond four, in contrast, was associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis. This association was contingent on the average intimacy level of the social network. At the highest average intimacy level (“extremely close”), increasing the number of social support network members from one to six was associated with linear decrease in the predicted probability of osteoporosis from 45% to 30%. However, at the lowest average intimacy level (“not very close”), the predicted probability of osteoporosis dramatically increased from 48% to 80% as the size of the social network increased from one to six. Conclusion Our results show that maintaining a large and intimate social support network is associated with a lower risk of osteoporosis among elderly Korean women, while a large but less-intimate social relationship is associated with a higher risk. PMID:28700637

Mollusks of Manuel Antonio National Park, Pacific Costa Rica.

PubMed

Willis, S; Cortés, J

2001-12-01

The mollusks in Manuel Antonio National Park on the central section of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica were studied along thirty-six transects done perpendicular to the shore, and by random sampling of subtidal environments, beaches and mangrove forest. Seventy-four species of mollusks belonging to three classes and 40 families were found: 63 gastropods, 9 bivalves and 2 chitons, during this study in 1995. Of these, 16 species were found only as empty shells (11) or inhabited by hermit crabs (5). Forty-eight species were found at only one locality. Half the species were found at one site, Puerto Escondido. The most diverse habitat was the low rocky intertidal zone. Nodilittorina modesta was present in 34 transects and Nerita scabricosta in 30. Nodilittorina aspera had the highest density of mollusks in the transects. Only four transects did not clustered into the four main groups. The species composition of one cluster of transects is associated with a boulder substrate, while another cluster of transects associates with site. Two clusters were not associated to any of the factors recorded. Some species were present in previous studies but absent in 1995, while others were absent in the previous studies but found in 1995. For example, Siphonaria gigas was present in 1995 in many transects with a relatively high density, but absent in 1962, probably due to human predation before the establishment of the park. Including this study, a total of 97 species of mollusks in three classes and 45 families have been reported from Manuel Antonio National Park. Sixty-nine species are new reports for the area: 53 gastropods, 14 bivalves and 2 chitons. There are probably more species of mollusks at Manuel Antonio National Park, than the 97 reported here, because some areas have not been adequately sampled (e.g., deep environments) and many micro-mollusks could not be identified.

Contingent association between the size of the social support network and osteoporosis among Korean elderly women.

PubMed

Lee, Seungwon; Seo, Da Hea; Kim, Kyoung Min; Lee, Eun Young; Kim, Hyeon Chang; Kim, Chang Oh; Youm, Yoosik; Rhee, Yumie

2017-01-01

To investigate the association between the number of personal ties (or the size of the social support network) and the incidence of osteoporosis among older women in Korea. Data from the Korean Urban Rural Elderly Study were used. Bone density was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the lumbar spine (L1-L4) and femur neck. T-score, the standardized bone density compared with what is normally expected in a healthy young adult, was measured and the presence of osteoporosis was determined, if the T-score was < -2.5. The social support network size was measured by self-responses (number of confidants and spouse). Of the 1,846 participants, 44.9% were diagnosed with osteoporosis. The association between the social support network size and the incidence of osteoporosis was curvilinear in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Having more people in one's social support network size was associated with lower risk of osteoporosis until it reached around four. Increasing the social support network size beyond four, in contrast, was associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis. This association was contingent on the average intimacy level of the social network. At the highest average intimacy level ("extremely close"), increasing the number of social support network members from one to six was associated with linear decrease in the predicted probability of osteoporosis from 45% to 30%. However, at the lowest average intimacy level ("not very close"), the predicted probability of osteoporosis dramatically increased from 48% to 80% as the size of the social network increased from one to six. Our results show that maintaining a large and intimate social support network is associated with a lower risk of osteoporosis among elderly Korean women, while a large but less-intimate social relationship is associated with a higher risk.

Breast density in multiethnic women presenting for screening mammography.

PubMed

Oppong, Bridget A; Dash, Chiranjeev; O'Neill, Suzanne; Li, Yinan; Makambi, Kepher; Pien, Edward; Makariou, Erini; Coleman, Tesha; Adams-Campbell, Lucile L

2018-05-01

Data on ethnic variations in breast density are limited and often not inclusive of underrepresented minorities. As breast density is associated with elevated breast cancer risk, investigating racial and ethnic difference may elucidate the observed differences in breast cancer risk among different populations. We reviewed breast density from initial screening of women from the Capital Breast Care Center and Georgetown University Hospital from 2010 to 2014. Patient demographics including race, age at screening, education, menopausal status, and body mass index were abstracted. We recorded the BI-RADS density categories: (1) "fatty," (2) "scattered fibroglandular densities," (3) "heterogeneously dense," and (4) "extremely dense." Multivariable unconditional logistic regression was used to identify predictors of breast density. Density categorization was recorded for 2146 women over the 5-year period, comprising Blacks (n = 940), Hispanics (n = 893), and Whites (n = 314). Analysis of subject characteristics by breast density showed that high category is observed in younger, Hispanic, nulliparous, premenopausal, and nonobese women (t-test or chi-square test, P-values <.0001). Obese women are 70% less likely to have high density. Being Hispanic, premenopausal, and nonobese were predictive of high density on logistic regression. In this analysis of density distribution in a diverse sample, Hispanic women have the highest breast density, followed by Blacks and Whites. Unique in our findings is women who identify as Hispanic have the highest breast density and lower rates of obesity. Further investigation of the impact of obesity on breast density, especially in the understudied Hispanic group is needed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

2008 Spawning Cisco Investigations in the Canadian Waters of Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yule, Daniel; Addison, Peter A.; Evrard, Lori M.; Cullis, Ken I.; Cholwek, Gary A.

2009-01-01

The Great Lakes Science Center of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) is working cooperatively with the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) on a threeyear study to develop standard procedures for acoustic and midwater trawl (AC-MT) assessments of spawning cisco Coregonus artedi that the OMNR can carry forward as a management activity. In year two (2008), we conducted an AC-MT survey of the northern shore from Nipigon Bay to Thunder Bay. Spawning-cisco (> 250 mm total length) densities were lowest near Nipigon Bay (<10/ha), moderate in and around Black Bay (15- 30/ha), and highest in Thunder Bay (118/ha). Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax densities were highest in Nipigon (2,179/ha) and Black (3,219/ha) bays, and lowest in Thunder Bay (961/ha). We combined our AC-MT survey results with commercial catch records to estimate exploitation fractions of female cisco in Thunder Bay during the 2008 fishery at 4% for ages 1-5, 8.7% for ages 6-12, and 4.4% for ages ≥ 13. Lake Superior fishery managers recently recommended that annual exploitation of adult female lake cisco be kept below 10-15%. Recruitment of cisco since 2003 has been low and there is a strong probability the Thunder Bay stock will decline into the future. Using a simple population dynamics approach we estimated that if the current total allowable catch (TAC) quota is held constant, exploitation fractions could exceed 10% by 2010 and 15% by 2011. Our 2008 collections suggested the survey of Black Bay was likely conducted before all spawners had returned there to spawn. Our data also suggested that cisco collected in Black Bay and east of this site in mid-November may be from the same stock. During November 2009 we will attempt to get better definition of the area occupied by cisco around Black Bay and also determine when surveys should be conducted at this location.

On the use of Bayesian Monte-Carlo in evaluation of nuclear data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Saint Jean, Cyrille; Archier, Pascal; Privas, Edwin; Noguere, Gilles

2017-09-01

As model parameters, necessary ingredients of theoretical models, are not always predicted by theory, a formal mathematical framework associated to the evaluation work is needed to obtain the best set of parameters (resonance parameters, optical models, fission barrier, average width, multigroup cross sections) with Bayesian statistical inference by comparing theory to experiment. The formal rule related to this methodology is to estimate the posterior density probability function of a set of parameters by solving an equation of the following type: pdf(posterior) ˜ pdf(prior) × a likelihood function. A fitting procedure can be seen as an estimation of the posterior density probability of a set of parameters (referred as x→?) knowing a prior information on these parameters and a likelihood which gives the probability density function of observing a data set knowing x→?. To solve this problem, two major paths could be taken: add approximations and hypothesis and obtain an equation to be solved numerically (minimum of a cost function or Generalized least Square method, referred as GLS) or use Monte-Carlo sampling of all prior distributions and estimate the final posterior distribution. Monte Carlo methods are natural solution for Bayesian inference problems. They avoid approximations (existing in traditional adjustment procedure based on chi-square minimization) and propose alternative in the choice of probability density distribution for priors and likelihoods. This paper will propose the use of what we are calling Bayesian Monte Carlo (referred as BMC in the rest of the manuscript) in the whole energy range from thermal, resonance and continuum range for all nuclear reaction models at these energies. Algorithms will be presented based on Monte-Carlo sampling and Markov chain. The objectives of BMC are to propose a reference calculation for validating the GLS calculations and approximations, to test probability density distributions effects and to provide the framework of finding global minimum if several local minimums exist. Application to resolved resonance, unresolved resonance and continuum evaluation as well as multigroup cross section data assimilation will be presented.

Density PDFs of diffuse gas in the Milky Way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkhuijsen, E. M.; Fletcher, A.

2012-09-01

The probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the average densities of the diffuse ionized gas (DIG) and the diffuse atomic gas are close to lognormal, especially when lines of sight at |b| < 5∘ and |b|≥ 5∘ are considered separately. Our results provide strong support for the existence of a lognormal density PDF in the diffuse ISM, consistent with a turbulent origin of density structure in the diffuse gas.

Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

PubMed

Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

2017-09-01

Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

[Soil mesofauna in differents systems of land use soil in Upper River Solimões, AM, Brazil].

PubMed

Morais, José W De; Oliveira, Viviane Dos S; Dambros, Cristian De S; Tapia-Coral, Sandra C; Acioli, Agno N S

2010-01-01

The mesofauna has an important function in the soil and it is represented mainly by Acari Oribatida and Collembola. We report the first data on the density and diversity of the soil mesofauna in Benjamin Constant, Amazonas State, Brazil. The following systems were evaluated: primary forest, secondary forest, agroforestry system, cultivated areas and pastures. A total of 101 samples were collected 100 m apart from each other and specimens were collected by using Berlese-Tullgren method. The highest density was registered in secondary forest (29,776 specimens.m-2). Acari Oribatida was the dominant group (7.072 specimens.m-2) in the pasture, suggesting that mites show higher capacity of adaptation to disturbed environments and/or due to the presence of gregarious species. The density of Collembola (5,632 specimens.m-2) was higher in secondary forest. Formicidae was the dominant group (27,824 specimens.m-2) and its highest density occurred in the secondary forest (12,336 specimens.m-2). Seven species and ten morphospecies of Isoptera and three species of Symphyla were identified. The highest density and diversity were found in secondary forest. One supposes that the low density of mesofauna found in all of the studied systems is being influenced by soil structure and composition as well as litter volume. For SUT, the composition of taxonomic groups in the cultivated areas is similar to the one found in primary forest, while the groups found in the agroforestry system are similar to those in the pasture, which may help to decide on land use strategies.

Pollen flow of wheat under natural conditions in the Huanghuai River Wheat Region, China

PubMed Central

Sun, Ai-Qing; Zhang, Chun-Qing; Wu, Cheng-Lai; Gao, Qing-Rong

2015-01-01

abstract The transgenic pollen spread is the main pathway of transgenic plant gene flow. The maximum distance of pollen dispersal (horizontal), the spatial dynamics of pollen movement (vertical), and the patterns of pollen dispersal are important considerations in biosafety assessments of genetically modified crops. To evaluate wheat (Triticum aestivum) pollen dispersal, we measured the pollen suspension velocity and analyzed pollen dispersal patterns under natural conditions in the Huanghuai River wheat-growing region in 2009. The pollen suspension velocity was 0.3–0.4 m/s. The highest pollen densities were detected in the north, northwest, and south of the pollen source. Pollen was dispersed over distances greater than 245 m in the northwest and northeast directions. At the pollen source center, pollen density decreased with increasing vertical height. In the north of the pollen source, the pollen density from 65 m to 225 m showed a wave-mode decrease with increasing height. The horizontal transport of pollen over longer distances fitted polynomial equations. In the north, the pollen density was highest at 45 m from the pollen source, and decreased with increasing distance. In the northwest, the pollen density showed a double-peak trend. In the northeast, pollen density was highest from 45 m to 125 m from the source. Wind speeds greater than the pollen suspension velocity and the duration of continuous gusts were the main factors affecting pollen dispersal. This information will be useful for determining the spatial isolation distances for hybrid seed production and for the commercial production of transgenic wheat. PMID:25658025

Predicting Dishonorable Discharge Among Military Recruits

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

train its members to give them the highest chance possible at a successful career. Jacob Rodriquez’s study, “Predicting the Military Career Success of...society as a whole. To improve the enlistment process and attract recruits with the highest probability of future career success , based on our...00036840801964450 Rodriguez, John J. (2008, January 1). Predicting the career success of air force academy cadets (Paper AAI3309209). ETD collection for

Influence of item distribution pattern and abundance on efficiency of benthic core sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behney, Adam C.; O'Shaughnessy, Ryan; Eichholz, Michael W.; Stafford, Joshua D.

2014-01-01

ore sampling is a commonly used method to estimate benthic item density, but little information exists about factors influencing the accuracy and time-efficiency of this method. We simulated core sampling in a Geographic Information System framework by generating points (benthic items) and polygons (core samplers) to assess how sample size (number of core samples), core sampler size (cm2), distribution of benthic items, and item density affected the bias and precision of estimates of density, the detection probability of items, and the time-costs. When items were distributed randomly versus clumped, bias decreased and precision increased with increasing sample size and increased slightly with increasing core sampler size. Bias and precision were only affected by benthic item density at very low values (500–1,000 items/m2). Detection probability (the probability of capturing ≥ 1 item in a core sample if it is available for sampling) was substantially greater when items were distributed randomly as opposed to clumped. Taking more small diameter core samples was always more time-efficient than taking fewer large diameter samples. We are unable to present a single, optimal sample size, but provide information for researchers and managers to derive optimal sample sizes dependent on their research goals and environmental conditions.

Stochastic Geomorphology: A Framework for Creating General Principles on Erosion and Sedimentation in River Basins (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benda, L. E.

2009-12-01

Stochastic geomorphology refers to the interaction of the stochastic field of sediment supply with hierarchically branching river networks where erosion, sediment flux and sediment storage are described by their probability densities. There are a number of general principles (hypotheses) that stem from this conceptual and numerical framework that may inform the science of erosion and sedimentation in river basins. Rainstorms and other perturbations, characterized by probability distributions of event frequency and magnitude, stochastically drive sediment influx to channel networks. The frequency-magnitude distribution of sediment supply that is typically skewed reflects strong interactions among climate, topography, vegetation, and geotechnical controls that vary between regions; the distribution varies systematically with basin area and the spatial pattern of erosion sources. Probability densities of sediment flux and storage evolve from more to less skewed forms downstream in river networks due to the convolution of the population of sediment sources in a watershed that should vary with climate, network patterns, topography, spatial scale, and degree of erosion asynchrony. The sediment flux and storage distributions are also transformed downstream due to diffusion, storage, interference, and attrition. In stochastic systems, the characteristically pulsed sediment supply and transport can create translational or stationary-diffusive valley and channel depositional landforms, the geometries of which are governed by sediment flux-network interactions. Episodic releases of sediment to the network can also drive a system memory reflected in a Hurst Effect in sediment yields and thus in sedimentological records. Similarly, discreet events of punctuated erosion on hillslopes can lead to altered surface and subsurface properties of a population of erosion source areas that can echo through time and affect subsequent erosion and sediment flux rates. Spatial patterns of probability densities have implications for the frequency and magnitude of sediment transport and storage and thus for the formation of alluvial and colluvial landforms throughout watersheds. For instance, the combination and interference of probability densities of sediment flux at confluences creates patterns of riverine heterogeneity, including standing waves of sediment with associated age distributions of deposits that can vary from younger to older depending on network geometry and position. Although the watershed world of probability densities is rarified and typically confined to research endeavors, it has real world implications for the day-to-day work on hillslopes and in fluvial systems, including measuring erosion, sediment transport, mapping channel morphology and aquatic habitats, interpreting deposit stratigraphy, conducting channel restoration, and applying environmental regulations. A question for the geomorphology community is whether the stochastic framework is useful for advancing our understanding of erosion and sedimentation and whether it should stimulate research to further develop, refine and test these and other principles. For example, a changing climate should lead to shifts in probability densities of erosion, sediment flux, storage, and associated habitats and thus provide a useful index of climate change in earth science forecast models.

Origin of Neutron Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecher, K.

1999-12-01

The origin of the concept of neutron stars can be traced to two brief, incredibly insightful publications. Work on the earlier paper by Lev Landau (Phys. Z. Sowjetunion, 1, 285, 1932) actually predated the discovery of neutrons. Nonetheless, Landau arrived at the notion of a collapsed star with the density of a nucleus (really a "nucleus star") and demonstrated (at about the same time as, and independent of, Chandrasekhar) that there is an upper mass limit for dense stellar objects of about 1.5 solar masses. Perhaps even more remarkable is the abstract of a talk presented at the December 1933 meeting of the American Physical Society published by Walter Baade and Fritz Zwicky in 1934 (Phys. Rev. 45, 138). It followed the discovery of the neutron by just over a year. Their report, which was about the same length as the present abstract: (1) invented the concept and word supernova; (2) suggested that cosmic rays are produced by supernovae; and (3) in the authors own words, proposed "with all reserve ... the view that supernovae represent the transitions from ordinary stars to neutron stars (italics), which in their final stages consist of extremely closely packed neutrons." The abstract by Baade and Zwicky probably contains the highest density of new, important (and correct) ideas in high energy astrophysics ever published in a single paper. In this talk, we will discuss some of the facts and myths surrounding these two publications.

Relative effects of plumage coloration and vegetation density on nest success

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.

1999-01-01

Many passerine species are highly dichromatic with brightly-colored males and cryptically-colored females. Bright plumage in males is commonly thought to arise as a result of sexual selection by females such that males with bright coloration possess high fitness. However, bright plumage potentially could expose males to increased predation risk. Consistent with this idea, males of many highly dichromatic passerine species do not incubate. I tested whether brightly-colored males avoid incubation to reduce the probability of visual predators locating their nest. This hypothesis predicts greater hatching success for clutches incubated by cryptically-colored individuals than by brightly-colored individuals. The Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) is a common dichromatic species that breeds throughout the eastern U.S. I placed two button-quail (Turnix st).) eggs in each of 203 simulated cardinal nests. Dull brown cardboard, simulating a female cardinal, was placed over about half of all clutches. Bright red cardboard, simulating a male cardinal, was placed over the other clutches. Nest success was highest for well-concealed nests (87%) and lowest for nests in open habitat (54%). Nests containing red cardboard did not have significantly lower success than nests with brown cardboard, nor did I detect a significant color X vegetation-density interaction. My analysis may have had insufficient power to detect an effect of color on nest success; alternatively, brightly-colored males that do not incubate may achieve benefits unrelated to predation risk.

Zooplankton variability in the subtropical estuarine system of Paranaguá Bay, Brazil, in 2012 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, Bianca; Bersano, José Guilherme F.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal dynamics of zooplankton assemblages were studied in the Paranaguá Estuarine System (southern Brazil), including data from the summer (rainy) and winter (dry) periods of 2012 and 2013. Zooplankton and environmental data were collected at 37 stations along the estuary and examined by multivariate methods. The results indicated significantly distinct assemblages; differences in abundance were the major source of variability, mainly over the temporal scale. The highest abundances were observed during rainy periods, especially in 2012, when the mean density reached 16378 ind.m-3. Winter assemblages showed lower densities but higher species diversity, due to the more extensive intrusion of coastal waters. Of the 14 taxonomic groups recorded, Copepoda was the most abundant and diverse (92% of total abundance and 22 species identified). The coastal copepods Acartia lilljeborgi (44%) and Oithona hebes (26%) were the most important species in both abundance and frequency, followed by the estuarine Pseudodiaptomus acutus and the neritic Temora turbinata. The results indicated strong influences of environmental parameters on the community structure, especially in response to seasonal variations. The spatial distribution of species was probably determined mainly by their preferences and tolerances for specific salinity conditions. On the other hand, the abundances were strongly related to higher water temperature and precipitation rates, which can drive nutrient inputs and consequently food supply in the system, due to intense continental drainage.

Estimation of avian population sizes and species richness across a boreal landscape in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Handel, Colleen M.; Swanson, S.A.; Nigro, Debora A.; Matsuoka, S.M.

2009-01-01

We studied the distribution of birds breeding within five ecological landforms in Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, a 10,194-km2 roadless conservation unit on the Alaska-Canada border in the boreal forest zone. Passerines dominated the avifauna numerically, comprising 97% of individuals surveyed but less than half of the 115 species recorded in the Preserve. We used distance-sampling and discrete-removal models to estimate detection probabilities, densities, and population sizes across the Preserve for 23 species of migrant passerines and five species of resident passerines. Yellow-rumped Warblers (Dendroica coronata) and Dark-eyed Juncos (Junco hyemalis) were the most abundant species, together accounting for 41% of the migrant passerine populations estimated. White-winged Crossbills (Loxia leucoptera), Boreal Chickadees (Poecile hudsonica), and Gray Jays (Perisoreus canadensis) were the most abundant residents. Species richness was greatest in the Floodplain/Terrace landform flanking the Yukon River but densities were highest in the Subalpine landform. Species composition was related to past glacial history and current physiography of the region and differed notably from other areas of the northwestern boreal forest. Point-transect surveys, augmented with auxiliary observations, were well suited to sampling the largely passerine avifauna across this rugged landscape and could be used across the boreal forest region to monitor changes in northern bird distribution and abundance. ?? 2009 The Wilson Ornithological Society.

Concurrent progressive ratio schedules: Effects of reinforcer probability on breakpoint and response allocation.

PubMed

Jarmolowicz, David P; Sofis, Michael J; Darden, Alexandria C

2016-07-01

Although progressive ratio (PR) schedules have been used to explore effects of a range of reinforcer parameters (e.g., magnitude, delay), effects of reinforcer probability remain underexplored. The present project used independently progressing concurrent PR PR schedules to examine effects of reinforcer probability on PR breakpoint (highest completed ratio prior to a session terminating 300s pause) and response allocation. The probability of reinforcement on one lever remained at 100% across all conditions while the probability of reinforcement on the other lever was systematically manipulated (i.e., 100%, 50%, 25%, 12.5%, and a replication of 25%). Breakpoints systematically decreased with decreasing reinforcer probabilities while breakpoints on the control lever remained unchanged. Patterns of switching between the two levers were well described by a choice-by-choice unit price model that accounted for the hyperbolic discounting of the value of probabilistic reinforcers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

First Volcanological-Probabilistic Pyroclastic Density Current and Fallout Hazard Map for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius Volcanoes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.

2005-05-01

Integrated volcanological-probabilistic approaches has been used in order to simulate pyroclastic density currents and fallout and produce hazard maps for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius areas. On the basis of the analyses of all types of pyroclastic flows, surges, secondary pyroclastic density currents and fallout events occurred in the volcanological history of the two volcanic areas and the evaluation of probability for each type of events, matrixs of input parameters for a numerical simulation have been performed. The multi-dimensional input matrixs include the main controlling parameters of the pyroclasts transport and deposition dispersion, as well as the set of possible eruptive vents used in the simulation program. Probabilistic hazard maps provide of each points of campanian area, the yearly probability to be interested by a given event with a given intensity and resulting demage. Probability of a few events in one thousand years are typical of most areas around the volcanoes whitin a range of ca 10 km, including Neaples. Results provide constrains for the emergency plans in Neapolitan area.

Coulomb Impurity Potential RbCl Quantum Pseudodot Qubit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xin-Jun; Qi, Bin; Xiao, Jing-Lin

2015-08-01

By employing a variational method of Pekar type, we study the eigenenergies and the corresponding eigenfunctions of the ground and the first-excited states of an electron strongly coupled to electron-LO in a RbCl quantum pseudodot (QPD) with a hydrogen-like impurity at the center. This QPD system may be used as a two-level quantum qubit. The expressions of electron's probability density versus time and the coordinates, and the oscillating period versus the Coulombic impurity potential and the polaron radius have been derived. The investigated results indicate ① that the probability density of the electron oscillates in the QPD with a certain oscillating period of , ② that due to the presence of the asymmetrical potential in the z direction of the RbCl QPD, the electron probability density shows double-peak configuration, whereas there is only one peak if the confinement is a two-dimensional symmetric structure in the xy plane of the QPD, ③ that the oscillation period is a decreasing function of the Coulombic impurity potential, whereas it is an increasing one of the polaron radius.

Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multiple Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via Intersymbol Dither Performance Under Multipath Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GE/ENG/09-23 Low Probability of Intercept Waveforms via...21 D random variable governing the distribution of dither values 21 p (ct) D (t) probability density function of the...potential performance loss of a non-cooperative receiver compared to a cooperative receiver designed to account for ISI and multipath. 1.3 Thesis

Summary of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting detection probability of marsh birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Gibbs, J.P.

2011-01-01

Many species of marsh birds (rails, bitterns, grebes, etc.) rely exclusively on emergent marsh vegetation for all phases of their life cycle, and many organizations have become concerned about the status and persistence of this group of birds. Yet, marsh birds are notoriously difficult to monitor due to their secretive habits. We synthesized the published and unpublished literature and summarized the factors that influence detection probability of secretive marsh birds in North America. Marsh birds are more likely to respond to conspecific than heterospecific calls, and seasonal peak in vocalization probability varies among co-existing species. The effectiveness of morning versus evening surveys varies among species and locations. Vocalization probability appears to be positively correlated with density in breeding Virginia Rails (Rallus limicola), Soras (Porzana carolina), and Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris). Movement of birds toward the broadcast source creates biases when using count data from callbroadcast surveys to estimate population density. Ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phase affected detection probability in some, but not all, studies. Better estimates of detection probability are needed. We provide recommendations that would help improve future marsh bird survey efforts and a list of 14 priority information and research needs that represent gaps in our current knowledge where future resources are best directed. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.

Energy density, nutrient adequacy, and cost per serving can provide insight into food choices in the lower Mississippi Delta.

PubMed

Connell, Carol L; Zoellner, Jamie M; Yadrick, M Kathleen; Chekuri, Srinivasa C; Crook, Lashaundrea B; Bogle, Margaret L

2012-01-01

To compare differences across food groups for food cost, energy, and nutrient profiles of 100 items from a cross-sectional survey of 225 stores in 18 counties across the Lower Mississippi Delta of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Energy, nutrient, and cost profiles for food items were calculated by using Naturally Nutrient Rich methodology and converting price per 100 g edible portion to price per serving. Foods were grouped into 6 food groups. Mean differences were compared with ANOVA. Significant differences existed by food group for each measure. Energy density was highest for fats/oils/sweets, whereas nutrient density was highest for vegetables. Price per serving was lowest for fats/oils/sweets and highest for meats. Educational messages focusing on a complete diet should consider the role of food costs and provide specific recommendations for increasing nutrient-dense foods by replacing a portion of the meat serving at meals with culturally acceptable lower-cost nutrient-dense foods. Copyright © 2012 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Image-based 3D modeling study of the influence of vessel density and blood hemoglobin concentration on tumor oxygenation and response to irradiation.

PubMed

Lagerlöf, Jakob H; Kindblom, Jon; Cortez, Eliane; Pietras, Kristian; Bernhardt, Peter

2013-02-01

Hypoxia is one of the most important factors influencing clinical outcome after radiotherapy. Improved knowledge of factors affecting the levels and distribution of oxygen within a tumor is needed. The authors constructed a theoretical 3D model based on histological images to analyze the influence of vessel density and hemoglobin (Hb) concentration on the response to irradiation. The pancreases of a Rip-Tag2 mouse, a model of malignant insulinoma, were excised, cryosectioned, immunostained, and photographed. Vessels were identified by image thresholding and a 3D vessel matrix assembled. The matrix was reduced to functional vessel segments and enlarged by replication. The steady-state oxygen tension field of the tumor was calculated by iteratively employing Green's function method for diffusion and the Michaelis-Menten model for consumption. The impact of vessel density on the radiation response was studied by removing a number of randomly selected vessels. The impact of Hb concentration was studied by independently changing vessel oxygen partial pressure (pO(2)). For each oxygen distribution, the oxygen enhancement ratio (OER) was calculated and the mean absorbed dose at which the tumor control probability (TCP) was 0.99 (D(99)) was determined using the linear-quadratic cell survival model (LQ model). Decreased pO(2) shifted the oxygen distribution to lower values, whereas decreased vessel density caused the distribution to widen and shift to lower values. Combined scenarios caused lower-shifted distributions, emphasising log-normal characteristics. Vessel reduction combined with increased blood pO(2) caused the distribution to widen due to a lack of vessels. The most pronounced radiation effect of increased pO(2) occurred with tumor tissue with 50% of the maximum vessel density used in the simulations. A 51% decrease in D(99), from 123 to 60 Gy, was found between the lowest and highest pO(2) concentrations. Our results indicate that an intermediate vascular density region exists where enhanced blood oxygen concentration may be beneficial for radiation response. The results also suggest that it is possible to distinguish between diffusion-limited and anemic hypoxia from the characteristics of the pO(2) distribution.

Using economic instruments to develop effective management of invasive species: insights from a bioeconomic model.

PubMed

McDermott, Shana M; Irwin, Rebecca E; Taylor, Brad W

2013-07-01

Economic growth is recognized as an important factor associated with species invasions. Consequently, there is increasing need to develop solutions that combine economics and ecology to inform invasive species management. We developed a model combining economic, ecological, and sociological factors to assess the degree to which economic policies can be used to control invasive plants. Because invasive plants often spread across numerous properties, we explored whether property owners should manage invaders cooperatively as a group by incorporating the negative effects of invader spread in management decisions (collective management) or independently, whereby the negative effects of invasive plant spread are ignored (independent management). Our modeling approach used a dynamic optimization framework, and we applied the model to invader spread using Linaria vulgaris. Model simulations allowed us to determine the optimal management strategy based on net benefits for a range of invader densities. We found that optimal management strategies varied as a function of initial plant densities. At low densities, net benefits were high for both collective and independent management to eradicate the invader, suggesting the importance of early detection and eradication. At moderate densities, collective management led to faster and more frequent invader eradication compared to independent management. When we used a financial penalty to ensure that independent properties were managed collectively, we found that the penalty would be most feasible when levied on a property's perimeter boundary to control spread among properties. At the highest densities, the optimal management strategy was "do nothing" because the economic costs of removal were too high relative to the benefits of removal. Spatial variation in L. vulgaris densities resulted in different optimal management strategies for neighboring properties, making a formal economic policy to encourage invasive species removal critical. To accomplish the management and enforcement of these economic policies, we discuss modification of existing agencies and infrastructure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis revealed that lowering the economic cost of invader removal would strongly increase the probability of invader eradication. Taken together, our results provide quantitative insight into management decisions and economic policy instruments that can encourage invasive species removal across a social landscape.

Self-Organization in 2D Traffic Flow Model with Jam-Avoiding Drive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagatani, Takashi

1995-04-01

A stochastic cellular automaton (CA) model is presented to investigate the traffic jam by self-organization in the two-dimensional (2D) traffic flow. The CA model is the extended version of the 2D asymmetric exclusion model to take into account jam-avoiding drive. Each site contains either a car moving to the up, a car moving to the right, or is empty. A up car can shift right with probability p ja if it is blocked ahead by other cars. It is shown that the three phases (the low-density phase, the intermediate-density phase and the high-density phase) appear in the traffic flow. The intermediate-density phase is characterized by the right moving of up cars. The jamming transition to the high-density jamming phase occurs with higher density of cars than that without jam-avoiding drive. The jamming transition point p 2c increases with the shifting probability p ja. In the deterministic limit of p ja=1, it is found that a new jamming transition occurs from the low-density synchronized-shifting phase to the high-density moving phase with increasing density of cars. In the synchronized-shifting phase, all up cars do not move to the up but shift to the right by synchronizing with the move of right cars. We show that the jam-avoiding drive has an important effect on the dynamical jamming transition.

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

PubMed

Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M; Lin, John K; Singh, Gitanjali M; Paciorek, Christopher J; Cowan, Melanie J; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A; Lim, Stephen S; Riley, Leanne M; Ezzati, Majid

2011-02-12

Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal properties of soils: effect of biochar application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usowicz, Boguslaw; Lukowski, Mateusz; Lipiec, Jerzy

2014-05-01

Thermal properties (thermal conductivity, heat capacity and thermal diffusivity) have a significant effect on the soil surface energy partitioning and resulting in the temperature distribution. Thermal properties of soil depend on water content, bulk density and organic matter content. An important source of organic matter is biochar. Biochar as a material is defined as: "charcoal for application as a soil conditioner". Biochar is generally associated with co-produced end products of pyrolysis. Many different materials are used as biomass feedstock for biochar, including wood, crop residues and manures. Additional predictions were done for terra preta soil (also known as "Amazonian dark earth"), high in charcoal content, due to adding a mixture of charcoal, bone, and manure for thousands of years i.e. approximately 10-1,000 times longer than residence times of most soil organic matter. The effect of biochar obtained from the wood biomass and other organic amendments (peat, compost) on soil thermal properties is presented in this paper. The results were compared with wetland soils of different organic matter content. The measurements of the thermal properties at various water contents were performed after incubation, under laboratory conditions using KD2Pro, Decagon Devices. The measured data were compared with predictions made using Usowicz statistical-physical model (Usowicz et al., 2006) for biochar, mineral soil and soil with addition of biochar at various water contents and bulk densities. The model operates statistically by probability of occurrence of contacts between particular fractional compounds. It combines physical properties, specific to particular compounds, into one apparent conductance specific to the mixture. The results revealed that addition of the biochar and other organic amendments into the soil caused considerable reduction of the thermal conductivity and diffusivity. The mineral soil showed the highest thermal conductivity and diffusivity that decreased in soil with addition of biochar and pure biochar. The reduction of both properties was mostly due to decrease in both particle density and bulk density. Both biochar and the organic amendments addition resulted in a decrease of the heat capacity of the mixtures in dry state and considerable increase in wet state. The lowest and highest reduction in the thermal conductivity with decreasing water content was obtained for pure biochar and mineral soil, respectively. The thermal diffusivity had a characteristic maximum at higher bulk densities and lower water contents. The wetland soil higher in organic matter content exhibit smaller temporal variation of the thermal properties compared to soils lower in organic matter content in response to changes of water content. The statistical-physical model was found to be useful for satisfactory predicting thermal properties of the soil with addition of biochar and organic amendments. Usowicz B. et al., 2006. Thermal conductivity modelling of terrestrial soil media - A comparative study. Planetary and Space Science 54, 1086-1095.

Probability density function formalism for optical coherence tomography signal analysis: a controlled phantom study.

PubMed

Weatherbee, Andrew; Sugita, Mitsuro; Bizheva, Kostadinka; Popov, Ivan; Vitkin, Alex

2016-06-15

The distribution of backscattered intensities as described by the probability density function (PDF) of tissue-scattered light contains information that may be useful for tissue assessment and diagnosis, including characterization of its pathology. In this Letter, we examine the PDF description of the light scattering statistics in a well characterized tissue-like particulate medium using optical coherence tomography (OCT). It is shown that for low scatterer density, the governing statistics depart considerably from a Gaussian description and follow the K distribution for both OCT amplitude and intensity. The PDF formalism is shown to be independent of the scatterer flow conditions; this is expected from theory, and suggests robustness and motion independence of the OCT amplitude (and OCT intensity) PDF metrics in the context of potential biomedical applications.

Single-molecule stochastic times in a reversible bimolecular reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Peter; Valleriani, Angelo

2012-08-01

In this work, we consider the reversible reaction between reactants of species A and B to form the product C. We consider this reaction as a prototype of many pseudobiomolecular reactions in biology, such as for instance molecular motors. We derive the exact probability density for the stochastic waiting time that a molecule of species A needs until the reaction with a molecule of species B takes place. We perform this computation taking fully into account the stochastic fluctuations in the number of molecules of species B. We show that at low numbers of participating molecules, the exact probability density differs from the exponential density derived by assuming the law of mass action. Finally, we discuss the condition of detailed balance in the exact stochastic and in the approximate treatment.

Probability density function approach for compressible turbulent reacting flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, A. T.; Tsai, Y.-L. P.; Raju, M. S.

1994-01-01

The objective of the present work is to extend the probability density function (PDF) tubulence model to compressible reacting flows. The proability density function of the species mass fractions and enthalpy are obtained by solving a PDF evolution equation using a Monte Carlo scheme. The PDF solution procedure is coupled with a compression finite-volume flow solver which provides the velocity and pressure fields. A modeled PDF equation for compressible flows, capable of treating flows with shock waves and suitable to the present coupling scheme, is proposed and tested. Convergence of the combined finite-volume Monte Carlo solution procedure is discussed. Two super sonic diffusion flames are studied using the proposed PDF model and the results are compared with experimental data; marked improvements over solutions without PDF are observed.

3D MRI for Quantitative Analysis of Quadrant Percent Breast Density: Correlation with Quadrant Location of Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Chen, Jeon-Hor; Liao, Fuyi; Zhang, Yang; Li, Yifan; Chang, Chia-Ju; Chou, Chen-Pin; Yang, Tsung-Lung; Su, Min-Ying

2017-07-01

Breast cancer occurs more frequently in the upper outer (UO) quadrant, but whether this higher cancer incidence is related to the greater amount of dense tissue is not known. Magnetic resonance imaging acquires three-dimensional volumetric images and is the most suitable among all breast imaging modalities for regional quantification of density. This study applied a magnetic resonance imaging-based method to measure quadrant percent density (QPD), and evaluated its association with the quadrant location of the developed breast cancer. A total of 126 cases with pathologically confirmed breast cancer were reviewed. Only women who had unilateral breast cancer located in a clear quadrant were selected for analysis. A total of 84 women, including 47 Asian women and 37 western women, were included. An established computer-aided method was used to segment the diseased breast and the contralateral normal breast, and to separate the dense and fatty tissues. Then, a breast was further separated into four quadrants using the nipple and the centroid as anatomic landmarks. The tumor was segmented using a computer-aided method to determine its quadrant location. The distribution of cancer quadrant location, the quadrant with the highest QPD, and the proportion of cancers occurring in the highest QPD were analyzed. The highest incidence of cancer occurred in the UO quadrant (36 out of 84, 42.9%). The highest QPD was also noted most frequently in the UO quadrant (31 out of 84, 36.9%). When correlating the highest QPD with the quadrant location of breast cancer, only 17 women out of 84 (20.2%) had breast cancer occurring in the quadrant with the highest QPD. The results showed that the development of breast cancer in a specific quadrant could not be explained by the density in that quadrant, and further studies are needed to find the biological reasons accounting for the higher breast cancer incidence in the UO quadrant. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Univariate Probability Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

2012-01-01

We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

Testing the consistency of wildlife data types before combining them: the case of camera traps and telemetry.

PubMed

Popescu, Viorel D; Valpine, Perry; Sweitzer, Rick A

2014-04-01

Wildlife data gathered by different monitoring techniques are often combined to estimate animal density. However, methods to check whether different types of data provide consistent information (i.e., can information from one data type be used to predict responses in the other?) before combining them are lacking. We used generalized linear models and generalized linear mixed-effects models to relate camera trap probabilities for marked animals to independent space use from telemetry relocations using 2 years of data for fishers (Pekania pennanti) as a case study. We evaluated (1) camera trap efficacy by estimating how camera detection probabilities are related to nearby telemetry relocations and (2) whether home range utilization density estimated from telemetry data adequately predicts camera detection probabilities, which would indicate consistency of the two data types. The number of telemetry relocations within 250 and 500 m from camera traps predicted detection probability well. For the same number of relocations, females were more likely to be detected during the first year. During the second year, all fishers were more likely to be detected during the fall/winter season. Models predicting camera detection probability and photo counts solely from telemetry utilization density had the best or nearly best Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), suggesting that telemetry and camera traps provide consistent information on space use. Given the same utilization density, males were more likely to be photo-captured due to larger home ranges and higher movement rates. Although methods that combine data types (spatially explicit capture-recapture) make simple assumptions about home range shapes, it is reasonable to conclude that in our case, camera trap data do reflect space use in a manner consistent with telemetry data. However, differences between the 2 years of data suggest that camera efficacy is not fully consistent across ecological conditions and make the case for integrating other sources of space-use data.

Comparisons of human amniotic mesenchymal stem cell viability in FDA-approved collagen-based scaffolds: Implications for engineered diaphragmatic replacement.

PubMed

Shieh, Hester F; Graham, Christopher D; Brazzo, Joseph A; Zurakowski, David; Fauza, Dario O

2017-06-01

We sought to examine amniotic fluid mesenchymal stem cell (afMSC) viability within two FDA-approved collagen-based scaffolds, as a prerequisite to clinical translation of afMSC-based engineered diaphragmatic repair. Human afMSCs were seeded in a human-derived collagen hydrogel and in a bovine-derived collagen sheet at 3 matching densities. Cell viability was analyzed at 1, 3, and 5days using an ATP-based 3D bioluminescence assay. Statistical comparisons were by ANOVA (P<0.05). There was a highly significant 3-way interaction between scaffold type, seeding density, and time in 3D culture as determinants of cell viability, clearly favoring the human hydrogel (P<0.001). In both scaffolds, cell viability was highest at the highest seeding density of 150,000 cells/mL. Time in 3D culture impacted cell viability at the optimal seeding density in the human hydrogel, with the highest levels on days 1 (P<0.001) and 5 (P=0.05) with no significant effect in the bovine sheet (P=0.39-0.96). Among clinically-approved cell delivery vehicles, mesenchymal stem cell viability is significantly enhanced in a collagen hydrogel when compared with a collagen sheet. Cell viability can be further optimized by seeding density and time in 3D culture. These data further support the regulatory viability of clinical trials of engineered diaphragmatic repair. N/A (animal and laboratory study). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survival and enumeration of the fecal indicators Bifidobacterium adolescentis and Escherichia coli in a tropical rain forest watershed.

PubMed Central

Carrillo, M; Estrada, E; Hazen, T C

1985-01-01

The density of Bifidobacterium spp., fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, and total anaerobic bacteria, acridine orange direct counts, percentages of total bacterial community activity and respiration, and 12 physical and chemical parameters were measured simultaneously at six sites for 12 months in the Mameyes River rain forest watershed, Puerto Rico. The densities of all bacteria were higher than those reported for uncontaminated temperate rivers, even though other water quality parameters would indicate that all uncontaminated sites were oligotrophic. The highest densities for all indicator bacteria were at the site receiving sewage effluent; however, the highest elevation site in the watershed had the next highest densities. Correlations between bacterial densities, nitrates, temperature, phosphates, and total phosphorus indicated that all viable counts were related to nutrient levels, regardless of the site sampled. In situ diffusion chamber studies at two different sites indicated that E. coli could survive, remain physiologically active, and regrow at rates that were dependent on nutrient levels of the ambient waters. Bifidobacterium adolescentis did not survive at either site but did show different rates of decline and physiological activity at the two sites. Bifidobacteria show promise as a better indicator of recent fecal contamination in tropical freshwaters than E. coli or fecal coliforms; however, the YN-6 medium did not prove to be effective for enumeration of bifidobacteria. The coliform maximum contaminant levels for assessing water usability for drinking and recreation appear to be unworkable in tropical freshwaters. PMID:3901921

WisDOT asphaltic mixture new specifications implementation : field compaction and density.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

The main research objectives of this study were to evaluate HMA Longitudinal Joint type, method and compaction data to produce specification recommendations that will ensure the highest density longitudinal joint, as well as evaluate and produce a sp...

Large Scale Data Analysis and Knowledge Extraction in Communication Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-31

this purpose, we developed a novel method the " Correlation Density Ran!C’ which finds probability density distribution of related frequent event on all...which is called " Correlation Density Rank", is developed to derive the community tree from the network. As in the real world, where a network is...Community Structure in Dynamic Social Networks using the Correlation Density Rank," 2014 ASE BigData/SocialCom/Cybersecurity Conference, Stanford

Hydrogen and Sulfur from Hydrogen Sulfide. 5. Anodic Oxidation of Sulfur on Activated Glassy Carbon

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-05

electrolyses of H S can probably be carried out at high rates with modest cell voltages in the range 1-1.5 V. The variation in anode current densities...of H2S from solutions of NaSH in aqueous NaOH was achieved using suitably ac- tivated glassy carbon anodes. Thus electrolyses of H2S can probably be...passivation by using a basic solvent at 850C. Using an H2S-saturated 6M NaOH solution, they conducted electrolyses for extended periods at current densities

Continuation of probability density functions using a generalized Lyapunov approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baars, S., E-mail: s.baars@rug.nl; Viebahn, J.P., E-mail: viebahn@cwi.nl; Mulder, T.E., E-mail: t.e.mulder@uu.nl

Techniques from numerical bifurcation theory are very useful to study transitions between steady fluid flow patterns and the instabilities involved. Here, we provide computational methodology to use parameter continuation in determining probability density functions of systems of stochastic partial differential equations near fixed points, under a small noise approximation. Key innovation is the efficient solution of a generalized Lyapunov equation using an iterative method involving low-rank approximations. We apply and illustrate the capabilities of the method using a problem in physical oceanography, i.e. the occurrence of multiple steady states of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Independent Component Analysis of Textures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manduchi, Roberto; Portilla, Javier

2000-01-01

A common method for texture representation is to use the marginal probability densities over the outputs of a set of multi-orientation, multi-scale filters as a description of the texture. We propose a technique, based on Independent Components Analysis, for choosing the set of filters that yield the most informative marginals, meaning that the product over the marginals most closely approximates the joint probability density function of the filter outputs. The algorithm is implemented using a steerable filter space. Experiments involving both texture classification and synthesis show that compared to Principal Components Analysis, ICA provides superior performance for modeling of natural and synthetic textures.

Existence, uniqueness and regularity of a time-periodic probability density distribution arising in a sedimentation-diffusion problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nitsche, Ludwig C.; Nitsche, Johannes M.; Brenner, Howard

1988-01-01

The sedimentation and diffusion of a nonneutrally buoyant Brownian particle in vertical fluid-filled cylinder of finite length which is instantaneously inverted at regular intervals are investigated analytically. A one-dimensional convective-diffusive equation is derived to describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the probability density; a periodicity condition is formulated; the applicability of Fredholm theory is established; and the parameter-space regions are determined within which the existence and uniqueness of solutions are guaranteed. Numerical results for sample problems are presented graphically and briefly characterized.

Exact joint density-current probability function for the asymmetric exclusion process.

PubMed

Depken, Martin; Stinchcombe, Robin

2004-07-23

We study the asymmetric simple exclusion process with open boundaries and derive the exact form of the joint probability function for the occupation number and the current through the system. We further consider the thermodynamic limit, showing that the resulting distribution is non-Gaussian and that the density fluctuations have a discontinuity at the continuous phase transition, while the current fluctuations are continuous. The derivations are performed by using the standard operator algebraic approach and by the introduction of new operators satisfying a modified version of the original algebra. Copyright 2004 The American Physical Society

Multiscale/Multifunctional Probabilistic Composite Fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2010-01-01

A multilevel (multiscale/multifunctional) evaluation is demonstrated by applying it to three different sample problems. These problems include the probabilistic evaluation of a space shuttle main engine blade, an engine rotor and an aircraft wing. The results demonstrate that the blade will fail at the highest probability path, the engine two-stage rotor will fail by fracture at the rim and the aircraft wing will fail at 109 fatigue cycles with a probability of 0.9967.

Multivariate Density Estimation and Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.

1983-01-01

Current efforts to develop methods and computer algorithms to effectively represent multivariate data commonly encountered in remote sensing applications are described. While this may involve scatter diagrams, multivariate representations of nonparametric probability density estimates are emphasized. The density function provides a useful graphical tool for looking at data and a useful theoretical tool for classification. This approach is called a thunderstorm data analysis.

Systemic and Mucosal Differences in HIV Burden, Immune and Therapeutic Responses

PubMed Central

Wahl, Sharon M.; Redford, Maryann; Christensen, Shawna; Mack, Wendy; Cohn, Jon; Janoff, Edward N.; Mestecky, Jiri; Jenson, Hal B.; Navazesh, Mahvash; Cohen, Mardge; Reichelderfer, Patricia; Kovacs, Andrea

2011-01-01

Background Mucosal tissues represent major targets for HIV transmission, but differ in susceptibility and reservoir function by unknown mechanisms. Methods In a cross-sectional study, HIV RNA and infectious virus were compared between oral and genital compartments and blood in HIV-infected women, in association with clinical parameters, co-pathogens and putative innate and adaptive HIV inhibitors. Results HIV RNA was detectable in 24.5% of women from all 3 compartments, whereas 45% had RNA in only one or two sites. By comparison, infectious HIV, present in blood of the majority, was rare in mucosal sites. Innate mediators, SLPI and TSP, were highest in mucosae. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was associated with an 80% decreased probability of shedding. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed that mucosal HIV RNA was associated with higher plasma RNA, infectious virus, and total mucosal IgA, but not IgG. There was a 37-fold increased probability of detecting RNA in both genital and oral specimens (P=0.008;P=0.02, respectively) among women in highest vs lowest IgA tertiles. Conclusions Mucosal sites exhibit distinct characteristics of infectious HIV, viral shedding and responses to therapy, dependent upon both systemic and local factors. Of the putative innate and adaptive mucosal defense factors examined, only IgA was associated with HIV RNA shedding. However, rather than being protective, there was a striking increase in probability of detectable HIV RNA shedding in women with highest total IgA. PMID:21239996

A Balanced Approach to Adaptive Probability Density Estimation.

PubMed

Kovacs, Julio A; Helmick, Cailee; Wriggers, Willy

2017-01-01

Our development of a Fast (Mutual) Information Matching (FIM) of molecular dynamics time series data led us to the general problem of how to accurately estimate the probability density function of a random variable, especially in cases of very uneven samples. Here, we propose a novel Balanced Adaptive Density Estimation (BADE) method that effectively optimizes the amount of smoothing at each point. To do this, BADE relies on an efficient nearest-neighbor search which results in good scaling for large data sizes. Our tests on simulated data show that BADE exhibits equal or better accuracy than existing methods, and visual tests on univariate and bivariate experimental data show that the results are also aesthetically pleasing. This is due in part to the use of a visual criterion for setting the smoothing level of the density estimate. Our results suggest that BADE offers an attractive new take on the fundamental density estimation problem in statistics. We have applied it on molecular dynamics simulations of membrane pore formation. We also expect BADE to be generally useful for low-dimensional applications in other statistical application domains such as bioinformatics, signal processing and econometrics.

Adaptive detection of noise signal according to Neumann-Pearson criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padiryakov, Y. A.

1985-03-01

Optimum detection according to the Neumann-Pearson criterion is considered in the case of a random Gaussian noise signal, stationary during measurement, and a stationary random Gaussian background interference. Detection is based on two samples, their statistics characterized by estimates of their spectral densities, it being a priori known that sample A from the signal channel is either the sum of signal and interference or interference alone and sample B from the reference interference channel is an interference with the same spectral density as that of the interference in sample A for both hypotheses. The probability of correct detection is maximized on the average, first in the 2N-dimensional space of signal spectral density and interference spectral density readings, by fixing the probability of false alarm at each point so as to stabilize it at a constant level against variation of the interference spectral density. Deterministic decision rules are established. The algorithm is then reduced to equivalent detection in the N-dimensional space of the ratio of sample A readings to sample B readings.

Generation of Stationary Non-Gaussian Time Histories with a Specified Cross-spectral Density

DOE PAGES

Smallwood, David O.

1997-01-01

The paper reviews several methods for the generation of stationary realizations of sampled time histories with non-Gaussian distributions and introduces a new method which can be used to control the cross-spectral density matrix and the probability density functions (pdfs) of the multiple input problem. Discussed first are two methods for the specialized case of matching the auto (power) spectrum, the skewness, and kurtosis using generalized shot noise and using polynomial functions. It is then shown that the skewness and kurtosis can also be controlled by the phase of a complex frequency domain description of the random process. The general casemore » of matching a target probability density function using a zero memory nonlinear (ZMNL) function is then covered. Next methods for generating vectors of random variables with a specified covariance matrix for a class of spherically invariant random vectors (SIRV) are discussed. Finally the general case of matching the cross-spectral density matrix of a vector of inputs with non-Gaussian marginal distributions is presented.« less

Modelling detectability of kiore (Rattus exulans) on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands, to inform possible eradication and monitoring efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, A.A.Y.; Stanford, J.W.; Wiewel, A.S.; Rodda, G.H.

2011-01-01

Estimating the detection probability of introduced organisms during the pre-monitoring phase of an eradication effort can be extremely helpful in informing eradication and post-eradication monitoring efforts, but this step is rarely taken. We used data collected during 11 nights of mark-recapture sampling on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands, to estimate introduced kiore (Rattus exulans Peale) density and detection probability, and evaluated factors affecting detectability to help inform possible eradication efforts. Modelling of 62 captures of 48 individuals resulted in a model-averaged density estimate of 55 kiore/ha. Kiore detection probability was best explained by a model allowing neophobia to diminish linearly (i.e. capture probability increased linearly) until occasion 7, with additive effects of sex and cumulative rainfall over the prior 48 hours. Detection probability increased with increasing rainfall and females were up to three times more likely than males to be trapped. In this paper, we illustrate the type of information that can be obtained by modelling mark-recapture data collected during pre-eradication monitoring and discuss the potential of using these data to inform eradication and posteradication monitoring efforts. ?? New Zealand Ecological Society.

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Mohammad; Chowdhary, Kamaljit Singh; Safta, Cosmin

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2/O 2-mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the givenmore » summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.« less

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Chowdhary, Kamaljit Singh; Safta, Cosmin; ...

2016-10-15

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2/O 2-mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the givenmore » summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.« less

Assessing environmental DNA detection in controlled lentic systems.

PubMed

Moyer, Gregory R; Díaz-Ferguson, Edgardo; Hill, Jeffrey E; Shea, Colin

2014-01-01

Little consideration has been given to environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling strategies for rare species. The certainty of species detection relies on understanding false positive and false negative error rates. We used artificial ponds together with logistic regression models to assess the detection of African jewelfish eDNA at varying fish densities (0, 0.32, 1.75, and 5.25 fish/m3). Our objectives were to determine the most effective water stratum for eDNA detection, estimate true and false positive eDNA detection rates, and assess the number of water samples necessary to minimize the risk of false negatives. There were 28 eDNA detections in 324, 1-L, water samples collected from four experimental ponds. The best-approximating model indicated that the per-L-sample probability of eDNA detection was 4.86 times more likely for every 2.53 fish/m3 (1 SD) increase in fish density and 1.67 times less likely for every 1.02 C (1 SD) increase in water temperature. The best section of the water column to detect eDNA was the surface and to a lesser extent the bottom. Although no false positives were detected, the estimated likely number of false positives in samples from ponds that contained fish averaged 3.62. At high densities of African jewelfish, 3-5 L of water provided a >95% probability for the presence/absence of its eDNA. Conversely, at moderate and low densities, the number of water samples necessary to achieve a >95% probability of eDNA detection approximated 42-73 and >100 L, respectively. Potential biases associated with incomplete detection of eDNA could be alleviated via formal estimation of eDNA detection probabilities under an occupancy modeling framework; alternatively, the filtration of hundreds of liters of water may be required to achieve a high (e.g., 95%) level of certainty that African jewelfish eDNA will be detected at low densities (i.e., <0.32 fish/m3 or 1.75 g/m3).

Weak gravitational lensing effects on the determination of Omega_mega_m and Omega_mega Lambda from SNeIa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valageas, P.

2000-02-01

In this article we present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the magnification of distant sources due to weak gravitational lensing from non-linear scales. We use a realistic description of the non-linear density field, which has already been compared with numerical simulations of structure formation within hierarchical scenarios. Then, we can directly express the probability distribution P(mu ) of the magnification in terms of the probability distribution of the density contrast realized on non-linear scales (typical of galaxies) where the local slope of the initial linear power-spectrum is n=-2. We recover the behaviour seen by numerical simulations: P(mu ) peaks at a value slightly smaller than the mean < mu >=1 and it shows an extended large mu tail (as described in another article our predictions also show a good quantitative agreement with results from N-body simulations for a finite smoothing angle). Then, we study the effects of weak lensing on the derivation of the cosmological parameters from SNeIa. We show that the inaccuracy introduced by weak lensing is not negligible: {cal D}lta Omega_mega_m >~ 0.3 for two observations at z_s=0.5 and z_s=1. However, observations can unambiguously discriminate between Omega_mega_m =0.3 and Omega_mega_m =1. Moreover, in the case of a low-density universe one can clearly distinguish an open model from a flat cosmology (besides, the error decreases as the number of observ ed SNeIa increases). Since distant sources are more likely to be ``demagnified'' the most probable value of the observed density parameter Omega_mega_m is slightly smaller than its actual value. On the other hand, one may obtain some valuable information on the properties of the underlying non-linear density field from the measure of weak lensing distortions.

Seedbed Density Affects Size of 3-0 Green Ash Nursery Stock

Treesearch

J.H. Stoeckeler

1967-01-01

Nursery seedbed density of 3-0 green ash, which ranged from 4 to 36 trees per square foot at Carlos Avery Nursery, Forest Lake, Minn., had a marked effect on caliper, height, fresh weight, and percent and amound of plantable stock. The highest number of good-quality trees was produced at a density of 12.5 trees per square foot.

Rock property measurements and analysis of selected igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks from worldwide localities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Gordon R.

1983-01-01

Dry bulk density and grain density measurements were made on 182 samples of igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks from various world-wide localities. Total porosity values and both water-accessible and helium-accessible porosities were calculated from the density data. Magnetic susceptibility measurements were made on the solid samples and permeability and streaming potentials were concurrently measured on most samples. Dry bulk densities obtained using two methods of volume determination, namely direct measurement and Archlmedes principle, were nearly equivalent for most samples. Grain densities obtained on powdered samples were typically greater than grain densities obtained on solid samples, but differences were usually small. Sedimentary rocks had the highest percentage of occluded porosity per rock volume whereas metamorphic rocks had the highest percentage of occluded porosity per total porosity. There was no apparent direct relationship between permeability and streaming potential for most samples, although there were indications of such a relationship in the rock group consisting of granites, aplites, and syenites. Most rock types or groups of similar rock types of low permeability had, when averaged, comparable levels of streaming potential per unit of permeability. Three calcite samples had negative streaming potentials.

Automatic Monitoring System Design and Failure Probability Analysis for River Dikes on Steep Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yin-Lung; Lin, Yi-Jun; Tung, Yeou-Koung

2017-04-01

The purposes of this study includes: (1) design an automatic monitoring system for river dike; and (2) develop a framework which enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes during a rainstorm. The historical dike failure data collected in this study indicate that most dikes in Taiwan collapsed under the 20-years return period discharge, which means the probability of dike failure is much higher than that of overtopping. We installed the dike monitoring system on the Chiu-She Dike which located on the middle stream of Dajia River, Taiwan. The system includes: (1) vertical distributed pore water pressure sensors in front of and behind the dike; (2) Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) to measure the displacement of dike; (3) wireless floating device to measure the scouring depth at the toe of dike; and (4) water level gauge. The monitoring system recorded the variation of pore pressure inside the Chiu-She Dike and the scouring depth during Typhoon Megi. The recorded data showed that the highest groundwater level insides the dike occurred 15 hours after the peak discharge. We developed a framework which accounts for the uncertainties from return period discharge, Manning's n, scouring depth, soil cohesion, and friction angle and enables the determination of dike failure probabilities for various failure modes such as overtopping, surface erosion, mass failure, toe sliding and overturning. The framework was applied to Chiu-She, Feng-Chou, and Ke-Chuang Dikes on Dajia River. The results indicate that the toe sliding or overturning has the highest probability than other failure modes. Furthermore, the overall failure probability (integrate different failure modes) reaches 50% under 10-years return period flood which agrees with the historical failure data for the study reaches.

Density of American black bears in New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, Matthew J.; Cain, James W.; Roemer, Gary W.; Gould, William R.; Liley, Stewart

2018-01-01

Considering advances in noninvasive genetic sampling and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish sought to update their density estimates for American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in New Mexico, USA, to aide in setting sustainable harvest limits. We estimated black bear density in the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, 2012–2014. We collected hair samples from black bears using hair traps and bear rubs and used a sex marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to individually genotype hair samples. We then estimated density in a SECR framework using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We sampled the populations using 554 hair traps and 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 male, 358 female) individuals. Our density estimates varied from 16.5 bears/100 km2 (95% CI = 11.6–23.5) in the southern Sacramento Mountains to 25.7 bears/100 km2 (95% CI = 13.2–50.1) in the Sandia Mountains. Overall, detection probability at the activity center (g0) was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. The low values of g0 were primarily a result of half of all hair samples for which genotypes were attempted failing to produce a complete genotype. We speculate that the low success we had genotyping hair samples was due to exceedingly high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation that degraded the DNA in the hair. Despite sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates with levels of precision comparable to those estimated for black bears elsewhere in the United States.

Site specific passive acoustic detection and densities of humpback whale calls off the coast of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helble, Tyler Adam

Passive acoustic monitoring of marine mammal calls is an increasingly important method for assessing population numbers, distribution, and behavior. Automated methods are needed to aid in the analyses of the recorded data. When a mammal vocalizes in the marine environment, the received signal is a filtered version of the original waveform emitted by the marine mammal. The waveform is reduced in amplitude and distorted due to propagation effects that are influenced by the bathymetry and environment. It is important to account for these effects to determine a site-specific probability of detection for marine mammal calls in a given study area. A knowledge of that probability function over a range of environmental and ocean noise conditions allows vocalization statistics from recordings of single, fixed, omnidirectional sensors to be compared across sensors and at the same sensor over time with less bias and uncertainty in the results than direct comparison of the raw statistics. This dissertation focuses on both the development of new tools needed to automatically detect humpback whale vocalizations from single-fixed omnidirectional sensors as well as the determination of the site-specific probability of detection for monitoring sites off the coast of California. Using these tools, detected humpback calls are "calibrated" for environmental properties using the site-specific probability of detection values, and presented as call densities (calls per square kilometer per time). A two-year monitoring effort using these calibrated call densities reveals important biological and ecological information on migrating humpback whales off the coast of California. Call density trends are compared between the monitoring sites and at the same monitoring site over time. Call densities also are compared to several natural and human-influenced variables including season, time of day, lunar illumination, and ocean noise. The results reveal substantial differences in call densities between the two sites which were not noticeable using uncorrected (raw) call counts. Additionally, a Lombard effect was observed for humpback whale vocalizations in response to increasing ocean noise. The results presented in this thesis develop techniques to accurately measure marine mammal abundances from passive acoustic sensors.

Timescales of isotropic and anisotropic cluster collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartelmann, M.; Ehlers, J.; Schneider, P.

1993-12-01

From a simple estimate for the formation time of galaxy clusters, Richstone et al. have recently concluded that the evidence for non-virialized structures in a large fraction of observed clusters points towards a high value for the cosmological density parameter Omega0. This conclusion was based on a study of the spherical collapse of density perturbations, assumed to follow a Gaussian probability distribution. In this paper, we extend their treatment in several respects: first, we argue that the collapse does not start from a comoving motion of the perturbation, but that the continuity equation requires an initial velocity perturbation directly related to the density perturbation. This requirement modifies the initial condition for the evolution equation and has the effect that the collapse proceeds faster than in the case where the initial velocity perturbation is set to zero; the timescale is reduced by a factor of up to approximately equal 0.5. Our results thus strengthens the conclusion of Richstone et al. for a high Omega0. In addition, we study the collapse of density fluctuations in the frame of the Zel'dovich approximation, using as starting condition the analytically known probability distribution of the eigenvalues of the deformation tensor, which depends only on the (Gaussian) width of the perturbation spectrum. Finally, we consider the anisotropic collapse of density perturbations dynamically, again with initial conditions drawn from the probability distribution of the deformation tensor. We find that in both cases of anisotropic collapse, in the Zel'dovich approximation and in the dynamical calculations, the resulting distribution of collapse times agrees remarkably well with the results from spherical collapse. We discuss this agreement and conclude that it is mainly due to the properties of the probability distribution for the eigenvalues of the Zel'dovich deformation tensor. Hence, the conclusions of Richstone et al. on the value of Omega0 can be verified and strengthened, even if a more general approach to the collapse of density perturbations is employed. A simple analytic formula for the cluster redshift distribution in an Einstein-deSitter universe is derived.

Applied anatomic site study of palatal anchorage implants using cone beam computed tomography.

PubMed

Lai, Ren-fa; Zou, Hui; Kong, Wei-dong; Lin, Wei

2010-06-01

The purpose of this study was to conduct quantitative research on bone height and bone mineral density of palatal implant sites for implantation, and to provide reference sites for safe and stable palatal implants. Three-dimensional reformatting images were reconstructed by cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in 34 patients, aged 18 to 35 years, using EZ Implant software. Bone height was measured at 20 sites of interest on the palate. Bone mineral density was measured at the 10 sites with the highest implantation rate, classified using K-mean cluster analysis based on bone height and bone mineral density. According to the cluster analysis, 10 sites were classified into three clusters. Significant differences in bone height and bone mineral density were detected between these three clusters (P<0.05). The greatest bone height was obtained in cluster 2, followed by cluster 1 and cluster 3. The highest bone mineral density was found in cluster 3, followed by cluster 1 and cluster 2. CBCT plays an important role in pre-surgical treatment planning. CBCT is helpful in identifying safe and stable implantation sites for palatal anchorage.

Significantly Enhanced Energy Storage Density by Modulating the Aspect Ratio of BaTiO3 Nanofibers

PubMed Central

Zhang, Dou; Zhou, Xuefan; Roscow, James; Zhou, Kechao; Wang, Lu; Luo, Hang; Bowen, Chris R.

2017-01-01

There is a growing need for high energy density capacitors in modern electric power supplies. The creation of nanocomposite systems based on one-dimensional nanofibers has shown great potential in achieving a high energy density since they can optimize the energy density by exploiting both the high permittivity of ceramic fillers and the high breakdown strength of the polymer matrix. In this paper, BaTiO3 nanofibers (NFs) with different aspect ratio were synthesized by a two-step hydrothermal method and the permittivity and energy storage of the P(VDF-HFP) nanocomposites were investigated. It is found that as the BaTiO3 NF aspect ratio and volume fraction increased the permittivity and maximum electric displacement of the nanocomposites increased, while the breakdown strength decreased. The nanocomposites with the highest aspect ratio BaTiO3 NFs exhibited the highest energy storage density at the same electric field. However, the nanocomposites with the lowest aspect ratio BaTiO3 NFs achieved the maximal energy storage density of 15.48 J/cm3 due to its higher breakdown strength. This contribution provides a potential route to prepare and tailor the properties of high energy density capacitor nanocomposites. PMID:28332636

Significantly Enhanced Energy Storage Density by Modulating the Aspect Ratio of BaTiO3 Nanofibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Dou; Zhou, Xuefan; Roscow, James; Zhou, Kechao; Wang, Lu; Luo, Hang; Bowen, Chris R.

2017-03-01

There is a growing need for high energy density capacitors in modern electric power supplies. The creation of nanocomposite systems based on one-dimensional nanofibers has shown great potential in achieving a high energy density since they can optimize the energy density by exploiting both the high permittivity of ceramic fillers and the high breakdown strength of the polymer matrix. In this paper, BaTiO3 nanofibers (NFs) with different aspect ratio were synthesized by a two-step hydrothermal method and the permittivity and energy storage of the P(VDF-HFP) nanocomposites were investigated. It is found that as the BaTiO3 NF aspect ratio and volume fraction increased the permittivity and maximum electric displacement of the nanocomposites increased, while the breakdown strength decreased. The nanocomposites with the highest aspect ratio BaTiO3 NFs exhibited the highest energy storage density at the same electric field. However, the nanocomposites with the lowest aspect ratio BaTiO3 NFs achieved the maximal energy storage density of 15.48 J/cm3 due to its higher breakdown strength. This contribution provides a potential route to prepare and tailor the properties of high energy density capacitor nanocomposites.

Significantly Enhanced Energy Storage Density by Modulating the Aspect Ratio of BaTiO3 Nanofibers.

PubMed

Zhang, Dou; Zhou, Xuefan; Roscow, James; Zhou, Kechao; Wang, Lu; Luo, Hang; Bowen, Chris R

2017-03-23

There is a growing need for high energy density capacitors in modern electric power supplies. The creation of nanocomposite systems based on one-dimensional nanofibers has shown great potential in achieving a high energy density since they can optimize the energy density by exploiting both the high permittivity of ceramic fillers and the high breakdown strength of the polymer matrix. In this paper, BaTiO 3 nanofibers (NFs) with different aspect ratio were synthesized by a two-step hydrothermal method and the permittivity and energy storage of the P(VDF-HFP) nanocomposites were investigated. It is found that as the BaTiO 3 NF aspect ratio and volume fraction increased the permittivity and maximum electric displacement of the nanocomposites increased, while the breakdown strength decreased. The nanocomposites with the highest aspect ratio BaTiO 3 NFs exhibited the highest energy storage density at the same electric field. However, the nanocomposites with the lowest aspect ratio BaTiO 3 NFs achieved the maximal energy storage density of 15.48 J/cm 3 due to its higher breakdown strength. This contribution provides a potential route to prepare and tailor the properties of high energy density capacitor nanocomposites.

Probabilistic cluster labeling of imagery data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The problem of obtaining the probabilities of class labels for the clusters using spectral and spatial information from a given set of labeled patterns and their neighbors is considered. A relationship is developed between class and clusters conditional densities in terms of probabilities of class labels for the clusters. Expressions are presented for updating the a posteriori probabilities of the classes of a pixel using information from its local neighborhood. Fixed-point iteration schemes are developed for obtaining the optimal probabilities of class labels for the clusters. These schemes utilize spatial information and also the probabilities of label imperfections. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed multispectral scanner imagery data are presented.

Density of Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Adults and Larvae at Three Stages of the Invasion Wave.

PubMed

Burr, Stephen J; McCullough, Deborah G; Poland, Therese M

2018-02-08

Emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), an invasive phloem-feeding buprestid, has killed hundreds of millions of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees in the United States and two Canadian provinces. We evaluated EAB persistence in post-invasion sites and compared EAB adult captures and larval densities in 24 forested sites across an east-west gradient in southern Michigan representing the Core (post-invasion), Crest (high EAB populations), and Cusp (recently infested areas) of the EAB invasion wave. Condition of green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh) trees were recorded in fixed radius plots and linear transects in each site. Ash mortality was highest in Core sites in the southeast, moderate in Crest sites in central southern Michigan, and low in Cusp sites in the southwest. Traps and trap trees in Crest sites accounted for 75 and 60% of all EAB beetles captured in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Populations of EAB were present in all Core sites and traps in these sites captured 13% of all beetles each year. Beetle captures and larval densities at Cusp sites roughly doubled between 2010 and 2011, reflecting the increasing EAB populations. Sticky bands on girdled trees captured the highest density of EAB beetles per m2 of area, while baited double-decker traps had the highest detection rates and captured the most beetles. Larval densities were higher on girdled ash than on similar ungirdled trees and small planted trees. Woodpecker predation and a native larval parasitoid were present in all three invasion regions but had minor effects on ash survival and EAB densities. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Long-term analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in population dynamics and demography of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacin, D. H.; Switzer, T. S.; Ainsworth, C. H.; Stallings, C. D.

2016-12-01

In estuarine systems, proximity to the ocean has the potential to directly and indirectly drive patterns of fish distribution and population dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-independent data and quantified patterns of density, biomass, and growth rates of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) across spatial and temporal scales in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA. Spatially, the highest density and biomass were found in the outermost regions (closest to the Gulf of Mexico) of the Bay, and these patterns were generally consistent temporally. Inter-annually, Pinfish density and biomass were the highest during periods coinciding with favorable oceanographic conditions (e.g., anomalously intense and prolonged upwelling) for across-shelf transport of larvae from spawning grounds in the Gulf to Tampa Bay. Intra-annually, density and biomass were the highest during spring and summer likely due to the combined effects of spawning timing (and delivery of new settlers), and high somatic growth fueled by increased secondary and primary productivity. Declines in density and biomass during the late summer through early winter were possibly due to high post-settlement mortality and egress to offshore habitats. Pinfish increased predictably in size across the months of the calendar year, and tended to be larger and grew faster in the innermost regions of the Bay, which were located farthest from the Gulf. Pinfish density was related to the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, with the outermost regions of the Bay having greater seagrass cover, higher salinity, and being closer to the offshore larval pool where spawning occurs. Thus, this study provided evidence that distance to the ocean was an important driver of biotic and abiotic factors that influenced Pinfish demographic rates across spatial and temporal scales in the largest estuary in Florida.

Reliability estimation of a N- M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress-strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yiming; Shi, Yimin; Bai, Xuchao; Zhan, Pei

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the estimation for the reliability of a multicomponent system, named N- M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. In the system, there are N subsystems consisting of M statistically independent distributed strength components, and only one of these subsystems works under the impact of stresses at a time and the others remain as standbys. Whenever the working subsystem fails, one from the standbys takes its place. The system fails when the entire subsystems fail. It is supposed that the underlying distributions of random strength and stress both belong to the generalized half-logistic distribution with different shape parameter. The reliability of the system is estimated by using both classical and Bayesian statistical inference. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the reliability of the system are derived. Under squared error loss function, the exact expression of the Bayes estimator for the reliability of the system is developed by using the Gauss hypergeometric function. The asymptotic confidence interval and corresponding coverage probabilities are derived based on both the Fisher and the observed information matrices. The approximate highest probability density credible interval is constructed by using Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed reliability estimators. A real data set is also analyzed for an illustration of the findings.

Identification of health risks in workers staying and working on the terrains contaminated with depleted uranium.

PubMed

Milacic, Snezana; Simic, Jadranko

2009-05-01

This study investigated health risks in workers residing and working in terrains contaminated by low ionizing radiation doses which originated from ammunition containing depleted uranium (DU). The studied population was composed of two test groups (T-I, T-II) who were occasionally exposed to DU, and two referent (R-I, R-II) groups not exposed at any time to DU. All of them were evaluated for the following: complete clinical examination and blood count, presence of immature forms and blasts, leukocyte alkaline phosphatase activity and cytogenetic tests. The probability of onset of the characteristic complete biomarkers--chromosomal aberrations, was analyzed using logarithmic function of the Poisson regression. The estimated function of the density of probabilities of Poisson distribution of the chromosomal aberrations in the test group T-II was drastically different from the corresponding distribution of the referent group R-I and to a somewhat lesser extent from the group R-II; Wilcoxon test exactly confirms the presence of a significant difference between the reference group R-II and test group T-II, p < 0.05. The damages to chromosomes and cells were highest in the test group T-II of workers additionally occupationally exposed to DU. The group of workers T-I, who had been exposed to DU working on contaminated terrain, have had certain risks of cell and chromosome damages, and that risk was not greater than the risk to the referent group R-II of workers occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation.

Marine Diterpenes: Molecular Modeling of Thrombin Inhibitors with Potential Biotechnological Application as an Antithrombotic

PubMed Central

Pereira, Rebeca Cristina Costa; Lourenço, André Luiz; Terra, Luciana; Abreu, Paula Alvarez; Laneuville Teixeira, Valéria; Castro, Helena Carla

2017-01-01

Thrombosis related diseases are among the main causes of death and incapacity in the world. Despite the existence of antithrombotic agents available for therapy, they still present adverse effects like hemorrhagic risks which justify the search for new options. Recently, pachydictyol A, isopachydictyol A, and dichotomanol, three diterpenes isolated from Brazilian marine brown alga Dictyota menstrualis were identified as potent antithrombotic molecules through inhibition of thrombin, a key enzyme of coagulation cascade and a platelet agonist. Due to the biotechnological potential of these marine metabolites, in this work we evaluated their binding mode to thrombin in silico and identified structural features related to the activity in order to characterize their molecular mechanism. According to our theoretical studies including structure-activity relationship and molecular docking analysis, the highest dipole moment, polar surface area, and lowest electronic density of dichotomanol are probably involved in its higher inhibition percentage towards thrombin catalytic activity compared to pachydictyol A and isopachydictyol A. Interestingly, the molecular docking studies also revealed a good shape complementarity of pachydictyol A and isopachydictyol A and interactions with important residues and regions (e.g., H57, S195, W215, G216, and loop-60), which probably justify their thrombin inhibitor effects demonstrated in vitro. Finally, this study explored the structural features and binding mode of these three diterpenes in thrombin which reinforced their potential to be further explored and may help in the design of new antithrombotic agents. PMID:28335516

Marine Diterpenes: Molecular Modeling of Thrombin Inhibitors with Potential Biotechnological Application as an Antithrombotic.

PubMed

Pereira, Rebeca Cristina Costa; Lourenço, André Luiz; Terra, Luciana; Abreu, Paula Alvarez; Laneuville Teixeira, Valéria; Castro, Helena Carla

2017-03-20

Thrombosis related diseases are among the main causes of death and incapacity in the world. Despite the existence of antithrombotic agents available for therapy, they still present adverse effects like hemorrhagic risks which justify the search for new options. Recently, pachydictyol A, isopachydictyol A, and dichotomanol, three diterpenes isolated from Brazilian marine brown alga Dictyota menstrualis were identified as potent antithrombotic molecules through inhibition of thrombin, a key enzyme of coagulation cascade and a platelet agonist. Due to the biotechnological potential of these marine metabolites, in this work we evaluated their binding mode to thrombin in silico and identified structural features related to the activity in order to characterize their molecular mechanism. According to our theoretical studies including structure-activity relationship and molecular docking analysis, the highest dipole moment, polar surface area, and lowest electronic density of dichotomanol are probably involved in its higher inhibition percentage towards thrombin catalytic activity compared to pachydictyol A and isopachydictyol A. Interestingly, the molecular docking studies also revealed a good shape complementarity of pachydictyol A and isopachydictyol A and interactions with important residues and regions (e.g., H57, S195, W215, G216, and loop-60), which probably justify their thrombin inhibitor effects demonstrated in vitro. Finally, this study explored the structural features and binding mode of these three diterpenes in thrombin which reinforced their potential to be further explored and may help in the design of new antithrombotic agents.

Electric vehicle drive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appleyard, M.

1992-01-01

New legislation in the State of California requires that 2% of vehicles sold there from 1998 will be 'zero-emitting'. This provides a unique market opportunity for developers of electric vehicles but substantial improvements in the technology are probably required if it is to be successfully exploited. There are around a dozen types of battery that are potentially relevant to road vehicles but, at the present, lead/acid and sodium—sulphur come closest to combining acceptable performance, life and cost. To develop an efficient, lightweight electric motor system requires up-to-date techniques of magnetics design, and the latest power-electronic and microprocessor control methods. Brushless machines, coupled with solid-state inverters, offer the most economical solution for mass production, even though their development costs are higher than for direct-current commutator machines. Fitted to a small car, even the highest energy-density batteries will only provide around 200 km average range before recharging. Therefore, some form of supplementary on-board power generation will probably be needed to secure widespread acceptance by the driving public. Engine-driven generators of quite low power can achieve useful increases in urban range but will fail to qualify as 'zero-emitting'. On the other hand, if the same function could be economically performed by a small fuel-cell using hydrogen derived from a methanol reformer, then most of the flexibility provided by conventional vehicles would be retained. The market prospects for electric cars would then be greatly enhanced and their dependence on very advanced battery technology would be reduced.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

PubMed

Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

2012-10-02

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

PubMed Central

Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

2012-01-01

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses. PMID:22988086

Reconstructing the History of Maize Streak Virus Strain A Dispersal To Reveal Diversification Hot Spots and Its Origin in Southern Africa ▿ †

PubMed Central

Monjane, Adérito L.; Harkins, Gordon W.; Martin, Darren P.; Lemey, Philippe; Lefeuvre, Pierre; Shepherd, Dionne N.; Oluwafemi, Sunday; Simuyandi, Michelo; Zinga, Innocent; Komba, Ephrem K.; Lakoutene, Didier P.; Mandakombo, Noella; Mboukoulida, Joseph; Semballa, Silla; Tagne, Appolinaire; Tiendrébéogo, Fidèle; Erdmann, Julia B.; van Antwerpen, Tania; Owor, Betty E.; Flett, Bradley; Ramusi, Moses; Windram, Oliver P.; Syed, Rizwan; Lett, Jean-Michel; Briddon, Rob W.; Markham, Peter G.; Rybicki, Edward P.; Varsani, Arvind

2011-01-01

Maize streak virus strain A (MSV-A), the causal agent of maize streak disease, is today one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Determining where MSV-A originated and how it spread transcontinentally could yield valuable insights into its historical emergence as a crop pathogen. Similarly, determining where the major extant MSV-A lineages arose could identify geographical hot spots of MSV evolution. Here, we use model-based phylogeographic analyses of 353 fully sequenced MSV-A isolates to reconstruct a plausible history of MSV-A movements over the past 150 years. We show that since the probable emergence of MSV-A in southern Africa around 1863, the virus spread transcontinentally at an average rate of 32.5 km/year (95% highest probability density interval, 15.6 to 51.6 km/year). Using distinctive patterns of nucleotide variation caused by 20 unique intra-MSV-A recombination events, we tentatively classified the MSV-A isolates into 24 easily discernible lineages. Despite many of these lineages displaying distinct geographical distributions, it is apparent that almost all have emerged within the past 4 decades from either southern or east-central Africa. Collectively, our results suggest that regular analysis of MSV-A genomes within these diversification hot spots could be used to monitor the emergence of future MSV-A lineages that could affect maize cultivation in Africa. PMID:21715477

Efficacy of Laparoscopic Nissen Fundoplication vs Transoral Incisionless Fundoplication or Proton Pump Inhibitors in Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Richter, Joel E; Kumar, Ambuj; Lipka, Seth; Miladinovic, Branko; Velanovich, Vic

2018-04-01

The effects of transoral incisionless fundoplication (TIF) and laparoscopic Nissen fundoplication (LNF) have been compared with those of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) or a sham procedure in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), but there has been no direct comparison of TIF vs LNF. We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to compare the relative efficacies of TIF vs LNF in patients with GERD. We searched publication databases and conference abstracts through May 10, 2017 for randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy of TIF or LNF with that of a sham procedure or PPIs in patients with GERD. We performed a network meta-analysis using Bayesian methods under random-effects multiple treatment comparisons. We assessed ranking probability by surface under the cumulative ranking curve. Our search identified 7 trials comprising 1128 patients. Surface under the cumulative ranking curve ranking indicated TIF had highest probability of increasing patients' health-related quality of life (0.96), followed by LNF (0.66), a sham procedure (0.35), and PPIs (0.042). LNF had the highest probability of increasing percent time at pH <4 (0.99), followed by PPIs (0.64), TIF (0.32), and the sham procedure (0.05). LNF also had the highest probability of increasing LES pressure (0.78), followed by TIF (0.72) and PPIs (0.01). Patients who underwent the sham procedure had the highest probability for persistent esophagitis (0.74), followed by those receiving TIF (0.69), LNF (0.38), and PPIs (0.19). Meta-regression showed a shorter follow-up time as a significant confounder for the outcome of health-related quality of life in studies of TIF. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis of trials of patients with GERD, we found LNF to have the greatest ability to improve physiologic parameters of GERD, including increased LES pressure and decreased percent time pH <4. Although TIF produced the largest increase in health-related quality of life, this could be due to the shorter follow-up time of patients treated with TIF vs LNF or PPIs. TIF is a minimally invasive endoscopic procedure, yet based on evaluation of benefits vs risks, we do not recommend it as a long-term alternative to PPI or LNF treatment of GERD. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Method- and species-specific detection probabilities of fish occupancy in Arctic lakes: Implications for design and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haynes, Trevor B.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Whitman, Matthew; Schmutz, Joel A.

2013-01-01

Studies examining species occurrence often fail to account for false absences in field sampling. We investigate detection probabilities of five gear types for six fish species in a sample of lakes on the North Slope, Alaska. We used an occupancy modeling approach to provide estimates of detection probabilities for each method. Variation in gear- and species-specific detection probability was considerable. For example, detection probabilities for the fyke net ranged from 0.82 (SE = 0.05) for least cisco (Coregonus sardinella) to 0.04 (SE = 0.01) for slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). Detection probabilities were also affected by site-specific variables such as depth of the lake, year, day of sampling, and lake connection to a stream. With the exception of the dip net and shore minnow traps, each gear type provided the highest detection probability of at least one species. Results suggest that a multimethod approach may be most effective when attempting to sample the entire fish community of Arctic lakes. Detection probability estimates will be useful for designing optimal fish sampling and monitoring protocols in Arctic lakes.

Floating marine debris in coastal waters of the SE-Pacific (Chile).

PubMed

Thiel, M; Hinojosa, I; Vásquez, N; Macaya, E

2003-02-01

Herein we report on the abundance and composition of floating marine debris (FMD) in coastal waters of the SE-Pacific (off the Chilean coast) during the austral summer 2002. The observed FMD consisted mainly of plastic material (86.9%). Densities of FMD were highest between 20 degrees S and 40 degrees S, corresponding to the main concentrations of human population and activities. Low densities of FMD were found in the south between 40 degrees S and 50 degrees S (<1 item km(-2)). Generally, the highest densities were recorded in nearshore waters of major port cities (>20 items km(-2)), but occasionally high concentrations of debris were also found 50 km offshore. Densities of FMD in coastal waters of the SE-Pacific are of similar magnitudes as those found in coastal waters or inland seas of highly populated regions in the northern hemisphere, indicating the need for improved regulation and legislation in the countries of the SE-Pacific.

Impact of stone density on outcomes in percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL): an analysis of the clinical research office of the endourological society (CROES) pcnl global study database.

PubMed

Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Onal, Bulent; Modi, Pranjal; Turna, Burak; Duvdevani, Mordechai; Timoney, Anthony; Wolf, J Stuart; De La Rosette, Jean

2013-12-01

This study aimed to explore the relationship between stone density and outcomes of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) using the Clinical Research Office of the Endourological Society (CROES) PCNL Global Study database. Patients undergoing PCNL treatment were assigned to a low stone density [LSD, ≤ 1000 Hounsfield units (HU)] or high stone density (HSD, > 1000 HU) group based on the radiological density of the primary renal stone. Preoperative characteristics and outcomes were compared in the two groups. Retreatment for residual stones was more frequent in the LSD group. The overall stone-free rate achieved was higher in the HSD group (79.3% vs 74.8%, p = 0.113). By univariate regression analysis, the probability of achieving a stone-free outcome peaked at approximately 1250 HU. Below or above this density resulted in lower treatment success, particularly at very low HU values. With increasing radiological stone density, operating time decreased to a minimum at approximately 1000 HU, then increased with further increase in stone density. Multivariate non-linear regression analysis showed a similar relationship between the probability of a stone-free outcome and stone density. Higher treatment success rates were found with low stone burden, pelvic stone location and use of pneumatic lithotripsy. Very low and high stone densities are associated with lower rates of treatment success and longer operating time in PCNL. Preoperative assessment of stone density may help in the selection of treatment modality for patients with renal stones.

Prediction of incident hip fracture by femoral neck bone mineral density and neck-shaft angle: a 5-year longitudinal study in post-menopausal females.

PubMed

Gnudi, S; Sitta, E; Pignotti, E

2012-08-01

To compare hip fracture incidence in post-menopausal females who were differently stratified for the fracture risk according to bone mineral density and proximal femur geometry. In a 5 year follow-up study, the hip fracture incidence in 729 post-menopausal females (45 of whom suffered from incident hip fracture) was assessed and compared. Forward logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of hip fracture risk, including age, age at menopause, height, weight, femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD), neck-shaft angle (NSA), hip axis length, femoral neck diameter and femoral shaft diameter as covariates. Fracture incidence was then calculated for the categories of young/old age, high/low FNBMD and wide/narrow NSA, which were obtained by dichotomising each hip fracture independent predictor at the value best separating females with and without a hip fracture. The hip fracture incidence of the whole cohort was significantly higher in females with a wide NSA (8.52%) than in those with a narrow NSA (3.51%). The combination of wide NSA and low FNBMD had the highest hip fracture incidence in the whole cohort (17.61%) and each age category. The combinations of narrow/wide NSA with low/high FNBMD, respectively, gave a significantly higher fracture incidence in older than in younger women, whereas women with a combined wide NSA and low FNBMD had no significantly different fracture incidence in young (14.60%) or old age (21.62%). Our study showed that NSA is effective at predicting the hip fracture risk and that the detection in early post-menopause of a wide NSA together with a low FNBMD should identify females at high probability of incident hip fracture.

Prediction of incident hip fracture by femoral neck bone mineral density and neck–shaft angle: a 5-year longitudinal study in post-menopausal females

PubMed Central

Gnudi, S; Sitta, E; Pignotti, E

2012-01-01

Objective To compare hip fracture incidence in post-menopausal females who were differently stratified for the fracture risk according to bone mineral density and proximal femur geometry. Methods In a 5 year follow-up study, the hip fracture incidence in 729 post-menopausal females (45 of whom suffered from incident hip fracture) was assessed and compared. Forward logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of hip fracture risk, including age, age at menopause, height, weight, femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD), neck–shaft angle (NSA), hip axis length, femoral neck diameter and femoral shaft diameter as covariates. Fracture incidence was then calculated for the categories of young/old age, high/low FNBMD and wide/narrow NSA, which were obtained by dichotomising each hip fracture independent predictor at the value best separating females with and without a hip fracture. Results The hip fracture incidence of the whole cohort was significantly higher in females with a wide NSA (8.52%) than in those with a narrow NSA (3.51%). The combination of wide NSA and low FNBMD had the highest hip fracture incidence in the whole cohort (17.61%) and each age category. The combinations of narrow/wide NSA with low/high FNBMD, respectively, gave a significantly higher fracture incidence in older than in younger women, whereas women with a combined wide NSA and low FNBMD had no significantly different fracture incidence in young (14.60%) or old age (21.62%). Conclusion Our study showed that NSA is effective at predicting the hip fracture risk and that the detection in early post-menopause of a wide NSA together with a low FNBMD should identify females at high probability of incident hip fracture. PMID:22096224

Accumulation of (18)F-FDG in the liver in hepatic steatosis.

PubMed

Keramida, Georgia; Potts, Jonathan; Bush, Jan; Verma, Sumita; Dizdarevic, Sabina; Peters, Adrien M

2014-09-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with hepatic inflammation. An emerging technique to image inflammation is PET using the glucose tracer, (18)F-FDG. The purpose of this study was to determine whether in hepatic steatosis the liver accumulates FDG in excess of FDG physiologically exchanging between blood and hepatocyte. Hepatic FDG uptake, as SUV = [voxel counts / administered activity] × body weight), and CT density were measured in a liver region in images obtained 60 minutes after injection of FDG in 304 patients referred for routine PET/CT. Maximum SUV (region voxel with the highest count rate, SUVmax) and average SUV ( SUVave) were measured. Blood FDG concentration was measured as the maximum SUV over the left ventricular cavity (SUVLV). SUVave was adjusted for hepatic fat using a formula equating percentage fat to CT density. Patients were divided in subgroups on the basis of blood glucose (< 4, 4 to < 5, 5 to < 6, 6 to < 8, 8 to < 10, and > 10 mmol/L). Hepatic steatosis was defined as CT density less than 40 HU (n = 71). The percentage of hepatic fat increased exponentially with blood glucose. SUVmax / SUVLV and fat-adjusted SUVave / SUVLV but not SUVave / SUVLV correlated with blood glucose. Fat-adjusted SUVave was higher in patients with hepatic steatosis (p < 0.001) by ~0.4 in all blood glucose groups. There was a similar difference (~0.3) in SUVmax (p < 0.005) but no difference in SUVave. SUVmax / SUVLV and fat-adjusted SUVave / SUVLV correlated with blood glucose in patients with hepatic steatosis but not in those without. SUVave / SUVLV correlated with blood glucose in neither group. FDG uptake is increased in hepatic steatosis, probably resulting from irreversible uptake in inflammatory cells superimposed on reversible hepatocyte uptake.

Population control of exotic rainbow trout in streams of a natural area park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Stephen E.; Larson, Gary L.; Ridley, Bromfield

1986-03-01

Expansion of the distribution of exotic rainbow trout is thought to be a leading cause for the decline of native brook trout since the 1930s in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. An experimental rehabilitation project was conducted from 1976 to 1981 using backpack electrofish shockers on four remnant brook trout populations sympatric with rainbow trout. The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness of the technique to remove the exotic rainbow trout, to determine the population responses by native brook trout, and to evaluate the usefulness of the technique for trout management in the park. Rainbow trout populations were greatly reduced in density after up to six years of electrofishing, but were not eradicated. Rainbow trout recruitment, however, was essentially eliminated. Brook trout populations responded by increasing in density (including young-of-the-year), but rates of recovery differed among streams. The maximum observed densities ir each stream occurred at the end of the project. The findings suggest that electrofishing had a major negative impact on the exotic species, which was followed by positive responses from the native species in the second and third order study streams. The technique would probably be less effective in larger (fourth-order) park streams, but as an eradication tool the technique may have its highest potential in small first order streams. Nonetheless, the technique appears useful for population control without causing undue impacts on native aquatic species, although it is labor intensive, and capture efficiency is greatly influenced by fish size and stream morphology. To completely remove the exotic fish from selected streams, different technologies will have to be explored and developed.

Artificial breakwaters as garbage bins: Structural complexity enhances anthropogenic litter accumulation in marine intertidal habitats.

PubMed

Aguilera, Moisés A; Broitman, Bernardo R; Thiel, Martin

2016-07-01

Coastal urban infrastructures are proliferating across the world, but knowledge about their emergent impacts is still limited. Here, we provide evidence that urban artificial reefs have a high potential to accumulate the diverse forms of litter originating from anthropogenic activities around cities. We test the hypothesis that the structural complexity of urban breakwaters, when compared with adjacent natural rocky intertidal habitats, is a driver of anthropogenic litter accumulation. We determined litter abundances at seven sites (cities) and estimated the structural complexity in both urban breakwaters and adjacent natural habitats from northern to central Chile, spanning a latitudinal gradient of ∼15° (18°S to 33°S). Anthropogenic litter density was significantly higher in coastal breakwaters when compared to natural habitats (∼15.1 items m(-2) on artificial reefs versus 7.4 items m(-2) in natural habitats) at all study sites, a pattern that was temporally persistent. Different litter categories were more abundant on the artificial reefs than in natural habitats, with local human population density and breakwater extension contributing to increase the probabilities of litter occurrence by ∼10%. In addition, structural complexity was about two-fold higher on artificial reefs, with anthropogenic litter density being highest at intermediate levels of structural complexity. Therefore, the spatial structure characteristic of artificial reefs seems to enhance anthropogenic litter accumulation, also leading to higher residence time and degradation potential. Our study highlights the interaction between coastal urban habitat modification by establishment of artificial reefs, and pollution. This emergent phenomenon is an important issue to be considered in future management plans and the engineering of coastal ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Evaluation of soil quality under different land use types in Naban River watershed, Yunnan Province of Southwest China].

PubMed

Xie, Jin; Li, Zhao-Li; Li, Yong-Mei; Guo, Fang-Fang

2011-12-01

Eighty-six topsoil (0-20 cm) samples were collected from 8 land use types (natural forest land, maize field, tea garden, paddy field, rubber plantation, flax field, banana plantation, and sugarcane field) in the Naban River Watershed National Nature Reserve and its surrounding areas, and the soil physical and chemical properties were analyzed, aimed to study the effects of land use type on the soil quality by the method of soil quality index (SQI). Comparing with natural forest land, all the cultivated lands had somewhat decreased soil organic matter content and higher soil bulk density, and the soil bulk density was significantly higher in tea garden, paddy field, rubber plantation, and banana plantation. In cultivated lands, fertilization and reclamation made the soil available potassium and phosphorus contents maintained at a higher level, probably due to the input of mineral potassium and phosphorus and the decomposition of soil organic matter. The SQI of the 8 land use types was in the order of flax field (0.595) > natural forest land (0.532) > maize field (0.516) > banana plantation (0.485) tea garden (0.480) sugarcane field (0.463) > paddy field (0.416) > rubber plantation (0.362). The soils in higher altitude production demonstration areas (1614 +/-115 m) had significant higher SQI, compared to the soils in lower altitude buffer areas (908 +/- 98 m) and junction areas (926 +/- 131 m). Among the 8 land use types, the rubber plantation in lower altitude areas had the lowest SQI, due to the lower soil organic matter and available potassium and phosphorus contents and the highest soil bulk density. Application of organic manure or intercropping with leguminous plants could be an available practice to improve the soil quality of the rubber plantation.

Molecular dynamic simulation of dicationic ionic liquids: effects of anions and alkyl chain length on liquid structure and diffusion.

PubMed

Yeganegi, Saeid; Soltanabadi, Azim; Farmanzadeh, Davood

2012-09-20

Structures and dynamics of nine geminal dicationic ionic liquids (DILs) Cn(mim)2X2, where n = 3, 6, and 9 and X = PF6(-), BF4(-), and Br(-), were studied by molecular dynamic simulations (J. Phys. Chem.B2004, 108, 2038-2047). A force field with a minor modification for C3(mim)2 × 2 was adopted for the simulations. Densities, detailed microscopic structures, mean-square displacements (MSD), and self-diffusivities for various ion pairs from MD simulations have been presented. The calculated densities for C9(mim)2X2 (X = Br(-) and BF4(-)) agreed well with the experimental values. The calculated RDFs show that anions are well organized around the imidazolium rings. The calculated RDFs indicate that, unlike the mono cationic ILs, the anions and cations in DILs distribute homogeneously. Enthalpies of vaporization were calculated and correlated with the structural features of DILs. The local structure of C9(mim)2X2 (X = Br, PF6) was examined by the spatial distribution function (SDF). The calculated SDFs show that similar trends were found by other groups for mono cationic ionic liquids (ILs). The highest probability densities are located around the imidazolium ring hydrogens. The calculated diffusion coefficients show that the ion diffusivities are 1 order of magnitude smaller than that of the mono cationic ionic liquids. The effects of alkyl chain length and anion type on the diffusion coefficient were also studied. The dynamics of the imidazolium rings and the alkyl chain in different time scales have also discussed. The calculated transference numbers show that the anions have the major role in carrying the electric current in a DIL.

The propagator of stochastic electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalleri, G.

1981-01-01

The "elementary propagator" for the position of a free charged particle subject to the zero-point electromagnetic field with Lorentz-invariant spectral density ~ω3 is obtained. The nonstationary process for the position is solved by the stationary process for the acceleration. The dispersion of the position elementary propagator is compared with that of quantum electrodynamics. Finally, the evolution of the probability density is obtained starting from an initial distribution confined in a small volume and with a Gaussian distribution in the velocities. The resulting probability density for the position turns out to be equal, to within radiative corrections, to ψψ* where ψ is the Kennard wave packet. If the radiative corrections are retained, the present result is new since the corresponding expression in quantum electrodynamics has not yet been found. Besides preceding quantum electrodynamics for this problem, no renormalization is required in stochastic electrodynamics.

Dual Approach To Superquantile Estimation And Applications To Density Fitting

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

incorporate additional constraints to improve the fidelity of density estimates in tail regions. We limit our investigation to data with heavy tails, where...samples of various heavy -tailed distributions. 14. SUBJECT TERMS probability density estimation, epi-splines, optimization, risk quantification...limit our investigation to data with heavy tails, where risk quantification is typically the most difficult. Demonstrations are provided in the form of

Implications of expanding indications for drug treatment to prevent fracture in older men in United States: cross sectional and longitudinal analysis of prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Ensrud, Kristine E; Taylor, Brent C; Peters, Katherine W; Gourlay, Margaret L; Donaldson, Meghan G; Leslie, William D; Blackwell, Terri L; Fink, Howard A; Orwoll, Eric S; Schousboe, John

2014-07-03

To quantify incremental effects of applying different criteria to identify men who are candidates for drug treatment to prevent fracture and to examine the extent to which fracture probabilities vary across distinct categories of men defined by these criteria. Cross sectional and longitudinal analysis of a prospective cohort study. Multicenter Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study in the United States. 5880 untreated community dwelling men aged 65 years or over classified into four distinct groups: osteoporosis by World Health Organization criteria alone; osteoporosis by National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) but not WHO criteria; no osteoporosis but at high fracture risk (at or above NOF derived FRAX intervention thresholds recommended for US); and no osteoporosis and at low fracture risk (below NOF derived FRAX intervention thresholds recommended for US). Proportion of men identified for drug treatment; predicted 10 year probabilities of hip and major osteoporotic fracture calculated using FRAX algorithm with femoral neck bone mineral density; observed 10 year probabilities for confirmed incident hip and major osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral, wrist, or humerus) fracture events calculated using cumulative incidence estimation, accounting for competing risk of mortality. 130 (2.2%) men were identified as having osteoporosis by using the WHO definition, and an additional 422 were identified by applying the NOF definition (total osteoporosis prevalence 9.4%). Application of NOF derived FRAX intervention thresholds led to 936 (15.9%) additional men without osteoporosis being identified as at high fracture risk, raising the total prevalence of men potentially eligible for drug treatment to 25.3%. Observed 10 year hip fracture probabilities were 20.6% for men with osteoporosis by WHO criteria alone, 6.8% for men with osteoporosis by NOF (but not WHO) criteria, 6.4% for men without osteoporosis but classified as at high fracture risk, and 1.5% for men without osteoporosis and classified as at low fracture risk. A similar pattern was noted in observed fracture probabilities for major osteoporotic fracture. Among men with osteoporosis by WHO criteria, observed fracture probabilities were greater than FRAX predicted probabilities (20.6% v 9.5% for hip fracture and 30.0% v 17.4% for major osteoporotic fracture). Choice of definition of osteoporosis and use of NOF derived FRAX intervention thresholds have major effects on the proportion of older men identified as warranting drug treatment to prevent fracture. Among men identified with osteoporosis by WHO criteria, who comprised 2% of the study population, actual observed fracture probabilities during 10 years of follow-up were highest and exceeded FRAX predicted fracture probabilities. On the basis of findings from randomized trials in women, these men are most likely to benefit from treatment. Expanding indications for treatment beyond this small group has uncertain value owing to lower observed fracture probabilities and uncertain benefits of treatment among men not selected on the basis of WHO criteria. © Ensrud et al 2014.

Variation in Empiric Coverage Versus Detection of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Hospitalizations for Community-Onset Pneumonia Across 128 US Veterans Affairs Medical Centers.

PubMed

Jones, Barbara E; Brown, Kevin Antoine; Jones, Makoto M; Huttner, Benedikt D; Greene, Tom; Sauer, Brian C; Madaras-Kelly, Karl; Rubin, Michael A; Bidwell Goetz, Matthew; Samore, Matthew H

2017-08-01

OBJECTIVE To examine variation in antibiotic coverage and detection of resistant pathogens in community-onset pneumonia. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SETTING A total of 128 hospitals in the Veterans Affairs health system. PARTICIPANTS Hospitalizations with a principal diagnosis of pneumonia from 2009 through 2010. METHODS We examined proportions of hospitalizations with empiric antibiotic coverage for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PAER) and with initial detection in blood or respiratory cultures. We compared lowest- versus highest-decile hospitals, and we estimated adjusted probabilities (AP) for patient- and hospital-level factors predicting coverage and detection using hierarchical regression modeling. RESULTS Among 38,473 hospitalizations, empiric coverage varied widely across hospitals (MRSA lowest vs highest, 8.2% vs 42.0%; PAER lowest vs highest, 13.9% vs 44.4%). Detection rates also varied (MRSA lowest vs highest, 0.5% vs 3.6%; PAER lowest vs highest, 0.6% vs 3.7%). Whereas coverage was greatest among patients with recent hospitalizations (AP for anti-MRSA, 54%; AP for anti-PAER, 59%) and long-term care (AP for anti-MRSA, 60%; AP for anti-PAER, 66%), detection was greatest in patients with a previous history of a positive culture (AP for MRSA, 7.9%; AP for PAER, 11.9%) and in hospitals with a high prevalence of the organism in pneumonia (AP for MRSA, 3.9%; AP for PAER, 3.2%). Low hospital complexity and rural setting were strong negative predictors of coverage but not of detection. CONCLUSIONS Hospitals demonstrated widespread variation in both coverage and detection of MRSA and PAER, but probability of coverage correlated poorly with probability of detection. Factors associated with empiric coverage (eg, healthcare exposure) were different from those associated with detection (eg, microbiology history). Providing microbiology data during empiric antibiotic decision making could better align coverage to risk for resistant pathogens and could promote more judicious use of broad-spectrum antibiotics. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:937-944.

Multi-Scale/Multi-Functional Probabilistic Composite Fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2008-01-01

A multi-level (multi-scale/multi-functional) evaluation is demonstrated by applying it to three different sample problems. These problems include the probabilistic evaluation of a space shuttle main engine blade, an engine rotor and an aircraft wing. The results demonstrate that the blade will fail at the highest probability path, the engine two-stage rotor will fail by fracture at the rim and the aircraft wing will fail at 109 fatigue cycles with a probability of 0.9967.

Crop identification from radar imagery of the Huntington County, Indiana test site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batlivala, P. P.; Ulaby, F. T. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Like polarization was successful in discriminating corn and soybeans; however, pasture and woods were consistently confused as soybeans and corn, respectively. The probability of correct classification was about 65%. The cross polarization component (highest for woods and lowest for pasture) helped in separating the woods from corn, and pasture from soybeans, and when used with the like polarization component, the probability of correct classification increased to 74%.

Hydrogen and Gaseous Fuel Safety and Toxicity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee C. Cadwallader; J. Sephen Herring

2007-06-01

Non-traditional motor fuels are receiving increased attention and use. This paper examines the safety of three alternative gaseous fuels plus gasoline and the advantages and disadvantages of each. The gaseous fuels are hydrogen, methane (natural gas), and propane. Qualitatively, the overall risks of the four fuels should be close. Gasoline is the most toxic. For small leaks, hydrogen has the highest ignition probability and the gaseous fuels have the highest risk of a burning jet or cloud.

Evaluation of sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. [Moench]) on several population density for bioethanol production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suwarti; Efendi, R.; Massinai, R.; Pabendon, M. B.

2018-03-01

Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. [Moench]) crop management that is use for raw source of bioethanol for industrial purpose in Indonesia is less developed. The aim of this research was to evaluated sweet sorghum variety at several population to determine optimum density for juice production. Experiment design was set on split-plot design with three replications, conducted on August to December 2016 at the Indonesian Cereals Research Institute Research Station, Maros South Sulawesi. Main plot were six variation of plant row, and sub plot were three sweet sorghum varieties. Result of the study showed that plant population was high significanty affect to stalk weight, total biomass yield, leaf weight, and also significantly affect bagass weight and juice volume. Varieties were high significantly different in plant height, juice volume, and number of nodes. Super 1 variety on population at 166,667 plants/ha (P1) was obtained the highest juice volume (19,445 lHa-1), meanwhile the highest brix value obtained from Numbu at the same plants population. Furthermore juice volume had significant correlation with biomass weight at the r=0.73. Based on ethanol production, Super 2 and Numbu had the highest volume at 83.333 plants/ha density (P3) and Super 1 at 166.667 plants/ha density with the ethanol volume were 827.68 l Ha-1, 1116.50 l/ha and 993.62 l Ha-1 respectively.

Variation in food availability mediate the impact of density on cannibalism, growth, and survival in larval yellow spotted mountain newts (Neurergus microspilotus): Implications for captive breeding programs.

PubMed

Vaissi, Somaye; Sharifi, Mozafar

2016-11-01

In this study, we examined cannibalistic behavior, growth, metamorphosis, and survival in larval and post-metamorph endangered yellow spotted mountain newts Neurergus microspilotus hatched and reared in a captive breeding facility. We designed a 2 × 2 factorial experiment, crossing two levels of food with two levels of density including high food/high density, high food/low density, low food/high density, and low food/low density. The level of cannibalistic behavior (including the loss of fore and hind limbs, missing toes, tail, gills, body damage, and whole body consumption) changed as the larvae grew, from a low level during the first 4 weeks, peaking from weeks 7 to 12, and then dropped during weeks 14-52. Both food level and density had a significant effect on cannibalism. The highest frequency of cannibalism was recorded for larvae reared in the low food/high density and lowest in high food/low density treatments. Growth, percent of larval metamorphosed, and survival were all highest in the high food/low density and lowest in low food/high density treatment. Food level had a significant effect on growth, metamorphosis, and survival. However, the two levels of density did not influence growth and metamorphosis but showed a significant effect on survival. Similarly, combined effects of food level and density showed significant effects on growth, metamorphosis, and survival over time. Information obtained from current experiment could improve productivity of captive breeding facilities to ensure the release of adequate numbers of individuals for reintroduction programs. Zoo Biol. 35:513-521, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. Zoo Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Zoo Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

OBSERVATIONAL PROPERTIES OF ROTATIONALLY EXCITED MOLECULAR HYDROGEN IN TRANSLUCENT LINES OF SIGHT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Adam G.; Sonneborn, George; Snow, Theodore P.

2010-03-10

The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) has allowed precise determinations of the column densities of molecular hydrogen (H{sub 2}) in Galactic lines of sight with a wide range of pathlengths and extinction properties. However, survey studies of lines of sight with greater extinction have been mostly restricted to the low-J states (lower total angular momentum) in which most molecular hydrogen is observed. This paper presents a survey of column densities for the molecular hydrogen in states of greater rotational excitation (J >= 2) in Galactic lines of sight with log N(H{sub 2}) {approx}> 20. This study is comprehensive through themore » highest excited state detectable in each line of sight. J = 5 is observed in every line of sight, and we detect J = 7 in four lines of sight, J = 8 in one line of sight, and vibrationally excited H{sub 2} in two lines of sight. We compared the apparent b-values and velocity offsets of the higher-J states relative to the dominant low-J states and we found no evidence of any trends that might provide insight into the formation of higher-J H{sub 2}, although these results are the most affected by the limits of the FUSE resolution. We also derive excitation temperatures based on the column densities of the different states. We confirm that at least two distinct temperatures are necessary to adequately describe these lines of sight, and that more temperatures are probably necessary. Total H{sub 2} column density is known to be correlated with other molecules; we explore if correlations vary as a function of J for several molecules, most importantly CH and CH{sup +}. Finally, we briefly discuss interpretations of selected lines of sight by comparing them to models computed using the Meudon PDR code.« less

Mode switching in volcanic seismicity: El Hierro 2011-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Nick S.; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.

2016-05-01

The Gutenberg-Richter b value is commonly used in volcanic eruption forecasting to infer material or mechanical properties from earthquake distributions. Such studies typically analyze discrete time windows or phases, but the choice of such windows is subjective and can introduce significant bias. Here we minimize this sample bias by iteratively sampling catalogs with randomly chosen windows and then stack the resulting probability density functions for the estimated b>˜ value to determine a net probability density function. We examine data from the El Hierro seismic catalog during a period of unrest in 2011-2013 and demonstrate clear multimodal behavior. Individual modes are relatively stable in time, but the most probable b>˜ value intermittently switches between modes, one of which is similar to that of tectonic seismicity. Multimodality is primarily associated with intermittent activation and cessation of activity in different parts of the volcanic system rather than with respect to any systematic inferred underlying process.

Diffusion in shear flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufty, J. W.

1984-09-01

Diffusion of a tagged particle in a fluid with uniform shear flow is described. The continuity equation for the probability density describing the position of the tagged particle is considered. The diffusion tensor is identified by expanding the irreversible part of the probability current to first order in the gradient of the probability density, but with no restriction on the shear rate. The tensor is expressed as the time integral of a nonequilibrium autocorrelation function for the velocity of the tagged particle in its local fluid rest frame, generalizing the Green-Kubo expression to the nonequilibrium state. The tensor is evaluated from results obtained previously for the velocity autocorrelation function that are exact for Maxwell molecules in the Boltzmann limit. The effects of viscous heating are included and the dependence on frequency and shear rate is displayed explicitly. The mode-coupling contributions to the frequency and shear-rate dependent diffusion tensor are calculated.

Nonequilibrium dynamics of a pure dry friction model subjected to colored noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geffert, Paul M.; Just, Wolfram

2017-06-01

We investigate the impact of noise on a two-dimensional simple paradigmatic piecewise-smooth dynamical system. For that purpose, we consider the motion of a particle subjected to dry friction and colored noise. The finite correlation time of the noise provides an additional dimension in phase space, causes a nontrivial probability current, and establishes a proper nonequilibrium regime. Furthermore, the setup allows for the study of stick-slip phenomena, which show up as a singular component in the stationary probability density. Analytic insight can be provided by application of the unified colored noise approximation, developed by Jung and Hänggi [Phys. Rev. A 35, 4464(R) (1987), 10.1103/PhysRevA.35.4464]. The analysis of probability currents and of power spectral densities underpins the observed stick-slip transition, which is related with a critical value of the noise correlation time.

Nonequilibrium dynamics of a pure dry friction model subjected to colored noise.

PubMed

Geffert, Paul M; Just, Wolfram

2017-06-01

We investigate the impact of noise on a two-dimensional simple paradigmatic piecewise-smooth dynamical system. For that purpose, we consider the motion of a particle subjected to dry friction and colored noise. The finite correlation time of the noise provides an additional dimension in phase space, causes a nontrivial probability current, and establishes a proper nonequilibrium regime. Furthermore, the setup allows for the study of stick-slip phenomena, which show up as a singular component in the stationary probability density. Analytic insight can be provided by application of the unified colored noise approximation, developed by Jung and Hänggi [Phys. Rev. A 35, 4464(R) (1987)0556-279110.1103/PhysRevA.35.4464]. The analysis of probability currents and of power spectral densities underpins the observed stick-slip transition, which is related with a critical value of the noise correlation time.

Multipartite entanglement characterization of a quantum phase transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costantini, G.; Facchi, P.; Florio, G.; Pascazio, S.

2007-07-01

A probability density characterization of multipartite entanglement is tested on the one-dimensional quantum Ising model in a transverse field. The average and second moment of the probability distribution are numerically shown to be good indicators of the quantum phase transition. We comment on multipartite entanglement generation at a quantum phase transition.

Understanding Bilingual Word Learning: The Role of Phonotactic Probability and Phonological Neighborhood Density

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nair, Vishnu K. K.; Biedermann, Britta; Nickels, Lyndsey

2017-01-01

Purpose: Previous research has shown that the language-learning mechanism is affected by bilingualism resulting in a novel word learning advantage for bilingual speakers. However, less is known about the factors that might influence this advantage. This article reports an investigation of 2 factors: phonotactic probability and phonological…

A method to deconvolve stellar rotational velocities II. The probability distribution function via Tikhonov regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christen, Alejandra; Escarate, Pedro; Curé, Michel; Rial, Diego F.; Cassetti, Julia

2016-10-01

Aims: Knowing the distribution of stellar rotational velocities is essential for understanding stellar evolution. Because we measure the projected rotational speed v sin I, we need to solve an ill-posed problem given by a Fredholm integral of the first kind to recover the "true" rotational velocity distribution. Methods: After discretization of the Fredholm integral we apply the Tikhonov regularization method to obtain directly the probability distribution function for stellar rotational velocities. We propose a simple and straightforward procedure to determine the Tikhonov parameter. We applied Monte Carlo simulations to prove that the Tikhonov method is a consistent estimator and asymptotically unbiased. Results: This method is applied to a sample of cluster stars. We obtain confidence intervals using a bootstrap method. Our results are in close agreement with those obtained using the Lucy method for recovering the probability density distribution of rotational velocities. Furthermore, Lucy estimation lies inside our confidence interval. Conclusions: Tikhonov regularization is a highly robust method that deconvolves the rotational velocity probability density function from a sample of v sin I data directly without the need for any convergence criteria.

Unit-Sphere Anisotropic Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Probability Density Distribution for the Orientation of Critical Flaws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel

2013-01-01

Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software

The Highest Resolution X-ray View of the Nuclear Region of NGC 4151

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junfeng; Fabbiano, G.; Karovska, M.; Elvis, M.; Risaliti, G.; Zezas, A.; Mundell, C. G.

2009-09-01

We report high resolution imaging of the nucleus of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4151 obtained with a 50 ks Chandra HRC observation. The HRC image resolves the emission on spatial scales of 0.5 arcsec (30 pc), showing an extended X-ray morphology overall consistent with the narrow line region seen in optical line emission. Removal of the bright point-like nuclear source and image deconvolution technique both reveal X-ray enhancements that closely match the substructures seen in the HST [OIII] image and prominent knots in the radio jet. We find that most of the NLR clouds in NGC 4151 have [OIII] to soft X-ray ratio consistent with the values observed in NLRs of some Seyfert 2 galaxies, which indicates a uniform ionization parameter even at large radii and a density dependence ∝ r^{-2} as expected in the disk wind scenario. We examine various X-ray emission mechanisms of the radio jet and consider thermal emission from interaction between radio outflow and the NLR clouds the most probable origin for the X-ray emission associated with the jet.

Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources.

PubMed

Johnston, Alison; Fink, Daniel; Reynolds, Mark D; Hochachka, Wesley M; Sullivan, Brian L; Bruns, Nicholas E; Hallstein, Eric; Merrifield, Matt S; Matsumoto, Sandi; Kelling, Steve

2015-10-01

Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

Adsorbent materials from paper industry waste materials and their use in Cu(II) removal from water.

PubMed

Méndez, A; Barriga, S; Fidalgo, J M; Gascó, G

2009-06-15

This paper deals with the removal of Cu(2+) from water using adsorbent materials prepared from paper industry waste materials (one de-inking paper sludge and other sludge from virgin pulp mill). Experimental results showed that de-inking paper sludge leads to mesoporous materials (V(mic)/V(T)=0.13 and 0.14), whereas the sludge from virgin pulp mill produces high microporous adsorbents (V(mic)/V(T)=0.39 and 0.41). Adsorbent materials were then used for Cu(2+) removal from water at acid pH. During water treatment, heavy metals lixiviation from adsorbent materials was not produced. However, important Ca and Mg leaching was observed. Final pH significantly increases after treatment of water with adsorbent materials probably due to their elevated CaCO(3) content. In general, highest Cu(2+) removal was obtained using adsorbent materials from de-inking paper sludge. This result could be due to their higher content in oxygenated surface groups, high average pore diameter, elevated superficial charge density, high CaCO(3) amount and high Ca and Mg exchange content.

Systematic Onset of Periodic Patterns in Random Disk Packings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topic, Nikola; Pöschel, Thorsten; Gallas, Jason A. C.

2018-04-01

We report evidence of a surprising systematic onset of periodic patterns in very tall piles of disks deposited randomly between rigid walls. Independently of the pile width, periodic structures are always observed in monodisperse deposits containing up to 1 07 disks. The probability density function of the lengths of disordered transient phases that precede the onset of periodicity displays an approximately exponential tail. These disordered transients may become very large when the channel width grows without bound. For narrow channels, the probability density of finding periodic patterns of a given period displays a series of discrete peaks, which, however, are washed out completely when the channel width grows.

Investigation of atomic oxygen-surface interactions related to measurements with dual air density explorer satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, B. J.; Ablow, C. M.; Wise, H.

1973-01-01

For a number of candidate materials of construction for the dual air density explorer satellites the rate of oxygen atom loss by adsorption, surface reaction, and recombination was determined as a function of surface and temperature. Plain aluminum and anodized aluminum surfaces exhibit a collisional atom loss probability alpha .01 in the temperature range 140 - 360 K, and an initial sticking probability. For SiO coated aluminum in the same temperature range, alpha .001 and So .001. Atom-loss on gold is relatively rapid alpha .01. The So for gold varies between 0.25 and unity in the temperature range 360 - 140 K.

Spacing distribution functions for the one-dimensional point-island model with irreversible attachment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Diego Luis; Pimpinelli, Alberto; Einstein, T. L.

2011-07-01

We study the configurational structure of the point-island model for epitaxial growth in one dimension. In particular, we calculate the island gap and capture zone distributions. Our model is based on an approximate description of nucleation inside the gaps. Nucleation is described by the joint probability density pnXY(x,y), which represents the probability density to have nucleation at position x within a gap of size y. Our proposed functional form for pnXY(x,y) describes excellently the statistical behavior of the system. We compare our analytical model with extensive numerical simulations. Our model retains the most relevant physical properties of the system.

Bragg-cell receiver study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Lonnie A.

1987-01-01

Bragg-cell receivers are employed in specialized Electronic Warfare (EW) applications for the measurement of frequency. Bragg-cell receiver characteristics are fully characterized for simple RF emitter signals. This receiver is early in its development cycle when compared to the IFM receiver. Functional mathematical models are derived and presented in this report for the Bragg-cell receiver. Theoretical analysis is presented and digital computer signal processing results are presented for the Bragg-cell receiver. Probability density function analysis are performed for output frequency. Probability density function distributions are observed to depart from assumed distributions for wideband and complex RF signals. This analysis is significant for high resolution and fine grain EW Bragg-cell receiver systems.