Characterizing the chaotic nature of ocean ventilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGilchrist, Graeme A.; Marshall, David P.; Johnson, Helen L.; Lique, Camille; Thomas, Matthew

2017-09-01

Ventilation of the upper ocean plays an important role in climate variability on interannual to decadal timescales by influencing the exchange of heat and carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and ocean. The turbulent nature of ocean circulation, manifest in a vigorous mesoscale eddy field, means that pathways of ventilation, once thought to be quasi-laminar, are in fact highly chaotic. We characterize the chaotic nature of ventilation pathways according to a nondimensional "filamentation number," which estimates the reduction in filament width of a ventilated fluid parcel due to mesoscale strain. In the subtropical North Atlantic of an eddy-permitting ocean model, the filamentation number is large everywhere across three upper ocean density surfaces—implying highly chaotic ventilation pathways—and increases with depth. By mapping surface ocean properties onto these density surfaces, we directly resolve the highly filamented structure and confirm that the filamentation number captures its spatial variability. These results have implications for the spreading of atmospherically-derived tracers into the ocean interior.

Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

2017-04-01

Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.

High-precision 41K/39K measurements by MC-ICP-MS indicate terrestrial variability of δ41K

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Leah; Santiago Ramos, Danielle P.; Davidheiser-Kroll, Brett; Faithfull, John; Lloyd, Nicholas S.; Ellam, Rob M.; Higgins, John A.

2018-01-01

Potassium is a major component in continental crust, the fourth-most abundant cation in seawater, and a key element in biological processes. Until recently, difficulties with existing analytical techniques hindered our ability to identify natural isotopic variability of potassium isotopes in terrestrial materials. However, measurement precision has greatly improved and a range of K isotopic compositions has now been demonstrated in natural samples. In this study, we present a new technique for high-precision measurement of K isotopic ratios using high-resolution, cold plasma multi-collector mass spectrometry. We apply this technique to demonstrate natural variability in the ratio of 41K to 39K in a diverse group of geological and biological samples, including silicate and evaporite minerals, seawater, and plant and animal tissues. The total range in 41K/39K ratios is ca. 2.6‰, with a long-term external reproducibility of 0.17‰ (2, N=108). Seawater and seawater-derived evaporite minerals are systematically enriched in 41K compared to silicate minerals by ca. 0.6‰, a result consistent with recent findings1, 2. Although our average bulk-silicate Earth value (-0.54‰) is indistinguishable from previously published values, we find systematic δ41K variability in some high-temperature sample suites, particularly those with evidence for the presence of fluids. The δ41K values of biological samples span a range of ca. 1.2‰ between terrestrial mammals, plants, and marine organisms. Implications of terrestrial K isotope variability for the atomic weight of K and K-based geochronology are discussed. Our results indicate that high-precision measurements of stable K isotopes, made using commercially available mass spectrometers, can provide unique insights into the chemistry of potassium in geological and biological systems. 

Soil temperature variability in complex terrain measured using fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil temperature (Ts) exerts critical controls on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes but magnitude and nature of Ts variability in a landscape setting are rarely documented. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing systems (FO-DTS) potentially measure Ts at high density over a large extent. ...

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P. T.; Ming, Y.; Li, W.; Hill, S. A.

2017-12-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Quantifying natural delta variability using a multiple-point geostatistics prior uncertainty model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheidt, Céline; Fernandes, Anjali M.; Paola, Chris; Caers, Jef

2016-10-01

We address the question of quantifying uncertainty associated with autogenic pattern variability in a channelized transport system by means of a modern geostatistical method. This question has considerable relevance for practical subsurface applications as well, particularly those related to uncertainty quantification relying on Bayesian approaches. Specifically, we show how the autogenic variability in a laboratory experiment can be represented and reproduced by a multiple-point geostatistical prior uncertainty model. The latter geostatistical method requires selection of a limited set of training images from which a possibly infinite set of geostatistical model realizations, mimicking the training image patterns, can be generated. To that end, we investigate two methods to determine how many training images and what training images should be provided to reproduce natural autogenic variability. The first method relies on distance-based clustering of overhead snapshots of the experiment; the second method relies on a rate of change quantification by means of a computer vision algorithm termed the demon algorithm. We show quantitatively that with either training image selection method, we can statistically reproduce the natural variability of the delta formed in the experiment. In addition, we study the nature of the patterns represented in the set of training images as a representation of the "eigenpatterns" of the natural system. The eigenpattern in the training image sets display patterns consistent with previous physical interpretations of the fundamental modes of this type of delta system: a highly channelized, incisional mode; a poorly channelized, depositional mode; and an intermediate mode between the two.

Characterizing local variability in long‐period horizontal tilt noise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohde, M.D.; Ringler, Adam; Hutt, Charles R.; Wilson, David; Holland, Austin; Sandoval, L.D; Storm, Tyler

2017-01-01

Horizontal seismic data are dominated by atmospherically induced tilt noise at long periods (i.e., 30 s and greater). Tilt noise limits our ability to use horizontal data for sensitive seismological studies such as observing free earth modes. To better understand the local spatial variability of long‐period horizontal noise, we observe horizontal noise during quiet time periods in the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) underground vault using four small‐aperture array configurations. Each array comprises eight Streckeisen STS‐2 broadband seismometers. We analyze the spectral content of the data using power spectral density and magnitude‐squared coherence (γ2‐coherence). Our results show a high degree of spatial variability and frequency dependence in the long‐period horizontal wavefield. The variable nature of long‐period horizontal noise in the ASL vault suggests that it might be highly local in nature and not easily characterized by simple physical models when overall noise levels are low, making it difficult to identify locations in the vault with lower horizontal noise. This variability could be limiting our ability to apply coherence analysis for estimating horizontal sensor self‐noise and could also complicate various indirect methods for removing long‐period horizontal noise (e.g., collocated rotational sensor or microbarograph).

Assessing water source and channel type as factors affecting benthic macroinvertebrate and periphyton assemblages in the highly urbanized Santa Ana River Basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burton, Carmen; Brown, Larry R.; Belitz, Kenneth

2005-01-01

The Santa Ana River basin is the largest stream system in Southern California and includes a densely populated coastal area. Extensive urbanization has altered the geomorphology and hydrology of the streams, adversely affecting aquatic communities. We studied macroinvertebrate and periphyton assemblages in relation to two categorical features of the highly engineered hydrologic system-water source and channel type. Four water sources were identified-natural, urban-impacted groundwater, urban runoff, and treated wastewater. Three channel types were identified-natural, channelized with natural bottom, and concrete-lined. Nineteen sites, covering the range of these two categorical features, were sampled in summer 2000. To minimize the effects of different substrate types among sites, artificial substrates were used for assessing macroinvertebrate and periphyton assemblages. Physical and chemical variables and metrics calculated from macroinvertebrate and periphyton assemblage data were compared among water sources and channel types using analysis of variance and multiple comparison tests. Macroinvertebrate metrics exhibiting significant (P < 0.05) differences between water sources included taxa and Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera richness, relative richness and abundance of nonchironomid dipterans, orthoclads, oligochaetes, and some functional-feeding groups such as parasites and shredders. Periphyton metrics showing significant differences between water sources included blue-green algae biovolume and relative abundance of nitrogen heterotrophic, eutrophic, motile, and pollution-sensitive diatoms. The relative abundance of trichopterans, tanytarsini chironomids, noninsects, and filter feeders, as well as the relative richness and abundance of diatoms, were significantly different between channel types. Most physical variables were related to channel type, whereas chemical variables and some physical variables (e.g., discharge, velocity, and channel width) were related to water source. These associations were reflected in correlations between metrics, chemical variables, and physical variables. Significant improvements in the aquatic ecosystem of the Santa Ana River basin are possible with management actions such as conversion of concrete-lined channels to channelized streams with natural bottoms that can still maintain flood control to protect life and property.

Teleportation of Two-Mode Quantum State of Continuous Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Tong-Qiang

2004-03-01

Using two Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen pair eigenstates |η> as quantum channels, we study the teleportation of two-mode quantum state of continuous variables. The project supported by Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China and Open Foundation of Laboratory of High-Intensity Optics, Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics

Genetic structure of American chestnut populations based on neutral DNA markers

Treesearch

Thomas L. Kubisiak; James H. Roberds

2006-01-01

Microsatellite and RAPD markers suggest that American chestnut exists as a highly variable species. Even at the margins of its natural range, with a large proportion of its genetic variability occurring within populations (~95%). A statistically significant proportion also exists among population. Although genetic differentiation among populations has taken place, no...

Hubby and Lewontin on Protein Variation in Natural Populations: When Molecular Genetics Came to the Rescue of Population Genetics.

PubMed

Charlesworth, Brian; Charlesworth, Deborah; Coyne, Jerry A; Langley, Charles H

2016-08-01

The 1966 GENETICS papers by John Hubby and Richard Lewontin were a landmark in the study of genome-wide levels of variability. They used the technique of gel electrophoresis of enzymes and proteins to study variation in natural populations of Drosophila pseudoobscura, at a set of loci that had been chosen purely for technical convenience, without prior knowledge of their levels of variability. Together with the independent study of human populations by Harry Harris, this seminal study provided the first relatively unbiased picture of the extent of genetic variability in protein sequences within populations, revealing that many genes had surprisingly high levels of diversity. These papers stimulated a large research program that found similarly high electrophoretic variability in many different species and led to statistical tools for interpreting the data in terms of population genetics processes such as genetic drift, balancing and purifying selection, and the effects of selection on linked variants. The current use of whole-genome sequences in studies of variation is the direct descendant of this pioneering work. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent

2016-01-01

This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.

Asymmetric patch size distribution leads to disruptive selection on dispersal.

PubMed

Massol, François; Duputié, Anne; David, Patrice; Jarne, Philippe

2011-02-01

Numerous models have been designed to understand how dispersal ability evolves when organisms live in a fragmented landscape. Most of them predict a single dispersal rate at evolutionary equilibrium, and when diversification of dispersal rates has been predicted, it occurs as a response to perturbation or environmental fluctuation regimes. Yet abundant variation in dispersal ability is observed in natural populations and communities, even in relatively stable environments. We show that this diversification can operate in a simple island model without temporal variability: disruptive selection on dispersal occurs when the environment consists of many small and few large patches, a common feature in natural spatial systems. This heterogeneity in patch size results in a high variability in the number of related patch mates by individual, which, in turn, triggers disruptive selection through a high per capita variance of inclusive fitness. Our study provides a likely, parsimonious and testable explanation for the diversity of dispersal rates encountered in nature. It also suggests that biological conservation policies aiming at preserving ecological communities should strive to keep the distribution of patch size sufficiently asymmetric and variable. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Quality assurance of temporal variability of natural decay chain and neutron induced background for low-level NORM analysis

DOE PAGES

Yoho, Michael; Porterfield, Donivan R.; Landsberger, Sheldon

2015-09-22

In this study, twenty-one high purity germanium (HPGe) background spectra were collected over 2 years at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A quality assurance methodology was developed to monitor spectral background levels from thermal and fast neutron flux levels and naturally occurring radioactive material decay series radionuclides. 238U decay products above 222Rn demonstrated minimal temporal variability beyond that expected from counting statistics. 238U and 232Th progeny below Rn gas displayed at most twice the expected variability. Further, an analysis of the 139 keV 74Ge(n, γ) and 691 keV 72Ge(n, n') spectral features demonstrated temporal stability for both thermal and fastmore » neutron fluxes.« less

Metacognitive judgments of repetition and variability effects in natural concept learning: evidence for variability neglect.

PubMed

Wahlheim, Christopher N; Finn, Bridgid; Jacoby, Larry L

2012-07-01

In four experiments, we examined the effects of repetitions and variability on the learning of bird families and metacognitive awareness of such effects. Of particular interest was the accuracy of, and bases for, predictions regarding classification of novel bird species, referred to as category learning judgments (CLJs). Participants studied birds in high repetitions and high variability conditions. These conditions differed in the number of presentations of each bird (repetitions) and the number of unique species from each family (variability). After study, participants made CLJs for each family and were then tested. Results from a classification test revealed repetition benefits for studied species and variability benefits for novel species. In contrast with performance, CLJs did not reflect the benefits of variability. Results showed that CLJs were susceptible to accessibility-based metacognitive illusions produced by additional repetitions of studied items.

Choosing and Leaving Science in Highly Selective Institutions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strenta, A. Christopher; And Others

1994-01-01

A study investigated causes of initial interest in and attrition from natural sciences and engineering among 5,320 students entering 4 highly selective institutions in 1988, with attention to probable causes of disproportionate attrition of women. Reasons for high attrition were based on cognitive variables or the perceived "chilly"…

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

PubMed Central

Brown, Patrick T.; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A.

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future. PMID:29391875

Improved Sparse Multi-Class SVM and Its Application for Gene Selection in Cancer Classification

PubMed Central

Huang, Lingkang; Zhang, Hao Helen; Zeng, Zhao-Bang; Bushel, Pierre R.

2013-01-01

Background Microarray techniques provide promising tools for cancer diagnosis using gene expression profiles. However, molecular diagnosis based on high-throughput platforms presents great challenges due to the overwhelming number of variables versus the small sample size and the complex nature of multi-type tumors. Support vector machines (SVMs) have shown superior performance in cancer classification due to their ability to handle high dimensional low sample size data. The multi-class SVM algorithm of Crammer and Singer provides a natural framework for multi-class learning. Despite its effective performance, the procedure utilizes all variables without selection. In this paper, we propose to improve the procedure by imposing shrinkage penalties in learning to enforce solution sparsity. Results The original multi-class SVM of Crammer and Singer is effective for multi-class classification but does not conduct variable selection. We improved the method by introducing soft-thresholding type penalties to incorporate variable selection into multi-class classification for high dimensional data. The new methods were applied to simulated data and two cancer gene expression data sets. The results demonstrate that the new methods can select a small number of genes for building accurate multi-class classification rules. Furthermore, the important genes selected by the methods overlap significantly, suggesting general agreement among different variable selection schemes. Conclusions High accuracy and sparsity make the new methods attractive for cancer diagnostics with gene expression data and defining targets of therapeutic intervention. Availability: The source MATLAB code are available from http://math.arizona.edu/~hzhang/software.html. PMID:23966761

Use of isoenzyme techniques in forest genetics research

Treesearch

M. Thompson Conkle; W. T. Adams

1977-01-01

Genetic variation among loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) samples from a natural stand and among clones in seed orchards was analyzed using simply inherited isozyme markers. Alleles for eleven enzyme loci were found useful for genotyping trees in a natural stand in North Carolina. The pines were highly variable with as many as seven alleles per isozyme...

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

2011-01-01

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Heart Rate Variability in Nonlinear Rats with Different Orientation and Exploratory Activity in the Open Field.

PubMed

Kur'yanova, E V; Teplyi, D L; Zhukova, Yu D; Zhukovina, N V

2015-12-01

The basic behavioral activity of nonlinear rats was evaluated from the sum of crossed peripheral and central squares and peripheral and central rearing postures in the open fi eld test. This index was low (<20 episodes), intermediate (20-29 episodes), or high (>30 episodes). Male rats with high score of orientation and exploratory activity were characterized by higher indexes of total heart rate variability than rats with low or intermediate activity. Specimens with a greater contribution of VLF waves into the total power spectrum of heart rate variability were shown to dominate among the rats with high behavioral activity. Our results are consistent with the notions of a suprasegmental nature of VLF waves.

NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

EPA Science Inventory

New England weather is highly variable for a number of
reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
(Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

The Effect of Three Cognitive Variables on Students' Understanding of the Particulate Nature of Matter and its Changes of State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsitsipis, Georgios; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Papageorgiou, George

2010-05-01

In this study, students' understanding of the structure of matter and its changes of state such as melting, evaporation, boiling, and condensation was investigated in relation to three cognitive variables: logical thinking (LTh), field dependence/independence, and convergence/divergence dimension. The study took place in Greece with the participation of 329 ninth-grade junior high school pupils (age 14-15). A stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that all of the above-mentioned cognitive variables were statistically significant predictors of the students' achievement. Among the three predictors, LTh was found to be the most dominant. In addition, students' understanding of the structure of matter, along with the cognitive variables, was shown to have an effect on their understanding of the changes of states and on their competence to interpret these physical changes. Path analyses were implemented to depict these effects. Moreover, a theoretical analysis is provided that associates LTh and cognitive styles with the nature of mental tasks involved when learning the material concerning the particulate nature of matter and its changes of state. Implications for science education are also discussed.

Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanski, J.; Matthews, E.

2017-12-01

High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process - first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.

Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Karen L.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.

2017-04-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a cooling of East Antarctica in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature trends over two distinct time periods (1960-2005 and 1979-2005), and with those simulated by 40 models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially between the two periods and, furthermore, that it is completely absent from the forced response seen in the CMIP5 multi-model mean, from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging. We also examine the relationship between the Southern Annular mode (SAM) and Antarctic temperature trends, in both models and reanalyses, and again conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trends. These results offer new, compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

Occurrence and multivariate exploratory analysis of the natural radioactivity anomaly in the south coastal region of Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaniu, M. I.; Angeyo, K. H.; Darby, I. G.

2018-05-01

Characterized by a variety of rock formations, namely alkaline, igneous and sedimentary that contain significant deposits of monazite and pyrochlore ores, the south coastal region of Kenya may be regarded as highly heterogeneous with regard to its geochemistry, mineralogy as well as geological morphology. The region is one of the several alkaline carbonatite complexes of Kenya that are associated with high natural background radiation and therefore radioactivity anomaly. However, this high background radiation (HBR) anomaly has hardly been systematically assessed and delineated with regard to the spatial, geological, geochemical as well as anthropogenic variability and co-dependencies. We conducted wide-ranging in-situ gamma-ray spectrometric measurements in this area. The goal of the study was to assess the radiation exposure as well as determine the underlying natural radioactivity levels in the region. In this paper we report the occurrence, exploratory analysis and modeling to assess the multivariate geo-dependence and spatial variability of the radioactivity and associated radiation exposure. Unsupervised principal component analysis and ternary plots were utilized in the study. It was observed that areas which exhibit HBR anomalies are located along the south coast paved road and in the Mrima-Kiruku complex. These areas showed a trend towards enhanced levels of 232Th and 238U and low 40K. The spatial variability of the radioactivity anomaly was found to be mainly constrained by anthropogenic activities, underlying geology and geochemical processes in the terrestrial environment.

Numerical Simulation of The Mediterranean Sea Using Diecast: Interaction Between Basin, Sub-basin and Local Scale Features and Natural Variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, V.; Dietrich, D. E.; Haney, R. L.; Tintoré, J.

In situ and satellite data obtained during the last ten years have shown that the circula- tion in the Mediterranean Sea is extremely complex in space, with significant features ranging from mesoscale to sub-basin and basin scale, and highly variable in time, with mesoscale to seasonal and interannual signals. Also, the steep bottom topography and the variable atmospheric conditions from one sub-basin to another, make the circula- tion to be composed of numerous energetic and narrow coastal currents, density fronts and mesoscale structures that interact at sub-basin scale with the large scale circula- tion. To simulate numerically and better understand these features, besides high grid resolution, a low numerical dispersion and low physical dissipation ocean model is required. We present the results from a 1/8z horizontal resolution numerical simula- tion of the Mediterranean Sea using DieCAST ocean model, which meets the above requirements since it is stable with low general dissipation and uses accurate fourth- order-accurate approximations with low numerical dispersion. The simulations are carried out with climatological surface forcing using monthly mean winds and relax- ation towards climatological values of temperature and salinity. The model reproduces the main features of the large basin scale circulation, as well as the seasonal variabil- ity of sub-basin scale currents that are well documented by observations in straits and channels. In addition, DieCAST brings out natural fronts and eddies that usually do not appear in numerical simulations of the Mediterranean and that lead to a natural interannual variability. The role of this intrinsic variability in the general circulation will be discussed.

Examining Preservice Science Teacher Understanding of Nature of Science: Discriminating Variables on the Aspects of Nature of Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, William I.

This study examined the understanding of nature of science among participants in their final year of a 4-year undergraduate teacher education program at a Midwest liberal arts university. The Logic Model Process was used as an integrative framework to focus the collection, organization, analysis, and interpretation of the data for the purpose of (1) describing participant understanding of NOS and (2) to identify participant characteristics and teacher education program features related to those understandings. The Views of Nature of Science Questionnaire form C (VNOS-C) was used to survey participant understanding of 7 target aspects of Nature of Science (NOS). A rubric was developed from a review of the literature to categorize and score participant understanding of the target aspects of NOS. Participants' high school and college transcripts, planning guides for their respective teacher education program majors, and science content and science teaching methods course syllabi were examined to identify and categorize participant characteristics and teacher education program features. The R software (R Project for Statistical Computing, 2010) was used to conduct an exploratory analysis to determine correlations of the antecedent and transaction predictor variables with participants' scores on the 7 target aspects of NOS. Fourteen participant characteristics and teacher education program features were moderately and significantly ( p < .01) correlated with participant scores on the target aspects of NOS. The 6 antecedent predictor variables were entered into multiple regression analyses to determine the best-fit model of antecedent predictor variables for each target NOS aspect. The transaction predictor variables were entered into separate multiple regression analyses to determine the best-fit model of transaction predictor variables for each target NOS aspect. Variables from the best-fit antecedent and best-fit transaction models for each target aspect of NOS were then combined. A regression analysis for each of the combined models was conducted to determine the relative effect of these variables on the target aspects of NOS. Findings from the multiple regression analyses revealed that each of the fourteen predictor variables was present in the best-fit model for at least 1 of the 7 target aspects of NOS. However, not all of the predictor variables were statistically significant (p < .007) in the models and their effect (beta) varied. Participants in the teacher education program who had higher ACT Math scores, completed more high school science credits, and were enrolled either in the Middle Childhood with a science concentration program major or in the Adolescent/Young Adult Science Education program major were more likely to have an informed understanding on each of the 7 target aspects of NOS. Analyses of the planning guides and the course syllabi in each teacher education program major revealed differences between the program majors that may account for the results.

Intraindividual variability is related to cognitive change in older adults: evidence for within-person coupling.

PubMed

Bielak, Allison A M; Hultsch, David F; Strauss, Esther; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hunter, Michael A

2010-09-01

In this study, the authors addressed the longitudinal nature of intraindividual variability over 3 years. A sample of 304 community-dwelling older adults, initially between the ages of 64 and 92 years, completed 4 waves of annual testing on a battery of accuracy- and latency-based tests covering a wide range of cognitive complexity. Increases in response-time inconsistency on moderately and highly complex tasks were associated with increasing age, but there were significant individual differences in change across the entire sample. The time-varying covariation between cognition and inconsistency was significant across the 1-year intervals and remained stable across both time and age. On occasions when intraindividual variability was high, participants' cognitive performance was correspondingly low. The strength of the coupling relationship was greater for more fluid cognitive domains such as memory, reasoning, and processing speed than for more crystallized domains such as verbal ability. Variability based on moderately and highly complex tasks provided the strongest prediction. These results suggest that intraindividual variability is highly sensitive to even subtle changes in cognitive ability. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Natural and artificial spawning strategies with fresh and cryopreserved semen in Rhamdia quelen: Reproductive parameters and genetic variability of offspring.

PubMed

Goes, Marcio Douglas; Reis Goes, Elenice Souza Dos; Ribeiro, Ricardo Pereira; Lopera-Barrero, Nelson Maurício; Castro, Pedro Luiz de; Bignotto, Thaís Souto; Bombardelli, Robie Allan

2017-01-15

This study evaluated the reproductive parameters and genetic variability of offspring of Rhamdia quelen from mating by natural spawning and by controlled fertilization with fresh and cryopreserved semen. After hormonal manipulation, three R quelen pairs were used for natural spawning in high-flow tanks, three pairs were used for mating with fresh semen, and another three pairs were used with cryopreserved semen. Matings were performed in triplicate. For matings with fresh and cryopreserved semen, semen from each male was used to individually fertilize oocytes from each female. Pools of semen and oocytes were made, and aliquots of these gametes were taken for fertilization. No differences (P > 0.05) were detected for absolute or relative fecundity, fertilization rate, or egg hatching rate. The use of fresh semen led to a higher (P < 0.01) percentage of normal larvae. The use of fresh semen in pooled mating resulted in a greater effective number of alleles and a higher expected heterozygosity. Offspring from natural spawning presented higher observed heterozygosity and a lower inbreeding coefficient. The highest inbreeding coefficient was found in offspring from individual matings using fresh semen. Regarding paternal contributions, a single male dominated in matings with fresh semen, whereas two males dominated in natural spawning and matings using cryopreserved semen. The use of gamete pools for mating and natural spawning resulted in higher genetic variability of offspring, and mating using cryopreserved semen found no effects on genetic variability of offspring but did reduce the percentage of normal larvae. Other reproductive parameters were not influenced by spawning strategies. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Changing Nature of QU Carinae: SN Ia Progenitor or a Hoax?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafka, Stella

2013-01-01

The race to the elusive Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) progenitors is at its zenith, with numerous clues from SNe Ia ejecta and a dearth of observational candidates. Still, the single degenerate channel is a viable route of mass accumulation onto a white dwarf to the Chandrasekhar limit. I present long-term high resolution spectroscopy of QU Carinae, one of the most promising single degenerate SNe Ia progenitors. I discuss its highly variable nature and compare it to current scenarios for mass accumulation onto high-mass white dwarfs, eventually leading to WD detonation and to a supernova explosion.

Determining the effects of dams on subdaily variation in river flows at a whole-basin scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, J.K.H.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.; Lutz, K.A.; Magilligan, F.J.

2010-01-01

River regulation can alter the frequency and magnitude of subdaily flow variations causing major impacts on ecological structure and function. We developed an approach to quantify subdaily flow variation for multiple sites across a large watershed to assess the potential impacts of different dam operations (flood control, run-of-river hydropower and peaking hydropower) on natural communities. We used hourly flow data over a 9-year period from 30 stream gages throughout the Connecticut River basin to calculate four metrics of subdaily flow variation and to compare sites downstream of dams with unregulated sites. Our objectives were to (1) determine the temporal scale of data needed to characterize subdaily variability; (2) compare the frequency of days with high subdaily flow variation downstream of dams and unregulated sites; (3) analyse the magnitude of subdaily variation at all sites and (4) identify individual sites that had subdaily variation significantly higher than unregulated locations. We found that estimates of flow variability based on daily mean flow data were not sufficient to characterize subdaily flow patterns. Alteration of subdaily flows was evident in the number of days natural ranges of variability were exceeded, rather than in the magnitude of subdaily variation, suggesting that all rivers may exhibit highly variable subdaily flows, but altered rivers exhibit this variability more frequently. Peaking hydropower facilities had the most highly altered subdaily flows; however, we observed significantly altered ranges of subdaily variability downstream of some flood-control and run-of-river hydropower dams. Our analysis can be used to identify situations where dam operating procedures could be modified to reduce the level of hydrologic alteration. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variabilities in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mousavi, S. Mostafa; Beroza, Gregory C.; Hoover, Susan M.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) characterizes ground-motion hazard from earthquakes. Typically, the time horizon of a PSHA forecast is long, but in response to induced seismicity related to hydrocarbon development, the USGS developed one-year PSHA models. In this paper, we present a display of the variability in USGS hazard curves due to epistemic uncertainty in its informed submodel using a simple bootstrapping approach. We find that variability is highest in low-seismicity areas. On the other hand, areas of high seismic hazard, such as the New Madrid seismic zone or Oklahoma, exhibit relatively lower variability simply because of more available data and a better understanding of the seismicity. Comparing areas of high hazard, New Madrid, which has a history of large naturally occurring earthquakes, has lower forecast variability than Oklahoma, where the hazard is driven mainly by suspected induced earthquakes since 2009. Overall, the mean hazard obtained from bootstrapping is close to the published model, and variability increased in the 2017 one-year model relative to the 2016 model. Comparing the relative variations caused by individual logic-tree branches, we find that the highest hazard variation (as measured by the 95% confidence interval of bootstrapping samples) in the final model is associated with different ground-motion models and maximum magnitudes used in the logic tree, while the variability due to the smoothing distance is minimal. It should be pointed out that this study is not looking at the uncertainty in the hazard in general, but only as it is represented in the USGS one-year models.

Effect of Cryopreservation and Post-Cryopreservation Somatic Embryogenesis on the Epigenetic Fidelity of Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.).

PubMed

Adu-Gyamfi, Raphael; Wetten, Andy; Marcelino Rodríguez López, Carlos

2016-01-01

While cocoa plants regenerated from cryopreserved somatic embryos can demonstrate high levels of phenotypic variability, little is known about the sources of the observed variability. Previous studies have shown that the encapsulation-dehydration cryopreservation methodology imposes no significant extra mutational load since embryos carrying high levels of genetic variability are selected against during protracted culture. Also, the use of secondary rather than primary somatic embryos has been shown to further reduce the incidence of genetic somaclonal variation. Here, the effect of in vitro conservation, cryopreservation and post-cryopreservation generation of somatic embryos on the appearance of epigenetic somaclonal variation were comparatively assessed. To achieve this we compared the epigenetic profiles, generated using Methylation Sensitive Amplified Polymorphisms, of leaves collected from the ortet tree and from cocoa somatic embryos derived from three in vitro conditions: somatic embryos, somatic embryos cryopreserved in liquid nitrogen and somatic embryos generated from cryoproserved somatic embryos. Somatic embryos accumulated epigenetic changes but these were less extensive than in those regenerated after storage in LN. Furthermore, the passage of cryopreserved embryos through another embryogenic stage led to further increase in variation. Interestingly, this detected variability appears to be in some measure reversible. The outcome of this study indicates that the cryopreservation induced phenotypic variability could be, at least partially, due to DNA methylation changes. Phenotypic variability observed in cryostored cocoa somatic-embryos is epigenetic in nature. This variability is partially reversible, not stochastic in nature but a directed response to the in-vitro culture and cryopreservation.

Effect of Cryopreservation and Post-Cryopreservation Somatic Embryogenesis on the Epigenetic Fidelity of Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.)

PubMed Central

Adu-Gyamfi, Raphael; Wetten, Andy; Marcelino Rodríguez López, Carlos

2016-01-01

While cocoa plants regenerated from cryopreserved somatic embryos can demonstrate high levels of phenotypic variability, little is known about the sources of the observed variability. Previous studies have shown that the encapsulation-dehydration cryopreservation methodology imposes no significant extra mutational load since embryos carrying high levels of genetic variability are selected against during protracted culture. Also, the use of secondary rather than primary somatic embryos has been shown to further reduce the incidence of genetic somaclonal variation. Here, the effect of in vitro conservation, cryopreservation and post-cryopreservation generation of somatic embryos on the appearance of epigenetic somaclonal variation were comparatively assessed. To achieve this we compared the epigenetic profiles, generated using Methylation Sensitive Amplified Polymorphisms, of leaves collected from the ortet tree and from cocoa somatic embryos derived from three in vitro conditions: somatic embryos, somatic embryos cryopreserved in liquid nitrogen and somatic embryos generated from cryoproserved somatic embryos. Somatic embryos accumulated epigenetic changes but these were less extensive than in those regenerated after storage in LN. Furthermore, the passage of cryopreserved embryos through another embryogenic stage led to further increase in variation. Interestingly, this detected variability appears to be in some measure reversible. The outcome of this study indicates that the cryopreservation induced phenotypic variability could be, at least partially, due to DNA methylation changes. Key message: Phenotypic variability observed in cryostored cocoa somatic-embryos is epigenetic in nature. This variability is partially reversible, not stochastic in nature but a directed response to the in-vitro culture and cryopreservation. PMID:27403857

E-Business, The impact of the Regional Government Development (APBD) on Information and Communication Development in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, M. I.; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Abdullah, D.; Napitupulu, D.; Rahim, R.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Wulandari, DAR; Reswanda; Mudjanarko, SW; Sugeng; Wajdi, MBN

2018-04-01

The decline of development delived from natural resources in several regions in Indonesia requires local governments to make a breakthrough in increasing revenues beyond natural resources, including through increased revenue in the field of information technology. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the regional government development (APBD) on information and communication development in Indonesia. By using correlational research, it is known that all of APBD sub variables have a high correlation in increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Information and Communication in Indonesia, only sub-variable of surplus/deficit development, unexpected development sub-variable, subvariable of development aid to province/regency/city and village government, and sub-variable of development special allocations that have not a significant correlation to increase of GRDP of Information and Communication in Indonesia. There is 86,7% of APBD variable influence the increase of GRDP of Information and Communication, while the increase of 15,3% of Information and Communication GRDP influenced by other factors aside from APBD. It shows the strong impact of APBD on increasing GRDP of Information and Communication

Wild inside: Urban wild boar select natural, not anthropogenic food resources.

PubMed

Stillfried, Milena; Gras, Pierre; Busch, Matthias; Börner, Konstantin; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Ortmann, Sylvia

2017-01-01

Most wildlife species are urban avoiders, but some became urban utilizers and dwellers successfully living in cities. Often, they are assumed to be attracted into urban areas by easily accessible and highly energetic anthropogenic food sources. We macroscopically analysed stomachs of 247 wild boar (Sus scrofa, hereafter WB) from urban areas of Berlin and from the surrounding rural areas. From the stomach contents we determined as predictors of food quality modulus of fineness (MOF,), percentage of acid insoluble ash (AIA) and macronutrients such as amount of energy and percentage of protein, fat, fibre and starch. We run linear mixed models to test: (1) differences in the proportion of landscape variables, (2) differences of nutrients consumed in urban vs. rural WB and (3) the impact of landscape variables on gathered nutrients. We found only few cases of anthropogenic food in the qualitative macroscopic analysis. We categorized the WB into five stomach content categories but found no significant difference in the frequency of those categories between urban and rural WB. The amount of energy was higher in stomachs of urban WB than in rural WB. The analysis of landscape variables revealed that the energy of urban WB increased with increasing percentage of sealing, while an increased human density resulted in poor food quality for urban and rural WB. Although the percentage of protein decreased in areas with a high percentage of coniferous forests, the food quality increased. High percentage of grassland decreased the percentage of consumed fat and starch and increased the percentage of fibre, while a high percentage of agricultural areas increased the percentage of consumed starch. Anthropogenic food such as garbage might serve as fallback food when access to natural resources is limited. We infer that urban WB forage abundant, natural resources in urban areas. Urban WB might use anthropogenic resources (e.g. garbage) if those are easier to exploit and more abundant than natural resources. This study shows that access to natural resources still is mandatory and drives the amount of protein, starch, fat or fibre in wild boar stomachs in urban as well as rural environments.

Wild inside: Urban wild boar select natural, not anthropogenic food resources

PubMed Central

Stillfried, Milena; Gras, Pierre; Busch, Matthias; Börner, Konstantin; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Ortmann, Sylvia

2017-01-01

Most wildlife species are urban avoiders, but some became urban utilizers and dwellers successfully living in cities. Often, they are assumed to be attracted into urban areas by easily accessible and highly energetic anthropogenic food sources. We macroscopically analysed stomachs of 247 wild boar (Sus scrofa, hereafter WB) from urban areas of Berlin and from the surrounding rural areas. From the stomach contents we determined as predictors of food quality modulus of fineness (MOF,), percentage of acid insoluble ash (AIA) and macronutrients such as amount of energy and percentage of protein, fat, fibre and starch. We run linear mixed models to test: (1) differences in the proportion of landscape variables, (2) differences of nutrients consumed in urban vs. rural WB and (3) the impact of landscape variables on gathered nutrients. We found only few cases of anthropogenic food in the qualitative macroscopic analysis. We categorized the WB into five stomach content categories but found no significant difference in the frequency of those categories between urban and rural WB. The amount of energy was higher in stomachs of urban WB than in rural WB. The analysis of landscape variables revealed that the energy of urban WB increased with increasing percentage of sealing, while an increased human density resulted in poor food quality for urban and rural WB. Although the percentage of protein decreased in areas with a high percentage of coniferous forests, the food quality increased. High percentage of grassland decreased the percentage of consumed fat and starch and increased the percentage of fibre, while a high percentage of agricultural areas increased the percentage of consumed starch. Anthropogenic food such as garbage might serve as fallback food when access to natural resources is limited. We infer that urban WB forage abundant, natural resources in urban areas. Urban WB might use anthropogenic resources (e.g. garbage) if those are easier to exploit and more abundant than natural resources. This study shows that access to natural resources still is mandatory and drives the amount of protein, starch, fat or fibre in wild boar stomachs in urban as well as rural environments. PMID:28403244

Variability of eye movements when viewing dynamic natural scenes.

PubMed

Dorr, Michael; Martinetz, Thomas; Gegenfurtner, Karl R; Barth, Erhardt

2010-08-26

How similar are the eye movement patterns of different subjects when free viewing dynamic natural scenes? We collected a large database of eye movements from 54 subjects on 18 high-resolution videos of outdoor scenes and measured their variability using the Normalized Scanpath Saliency, which we extended to the temporal domain. Even though up to about 80% of subjects looked at the same image region in some video parts, variability usually was much greater. Eye movements on natural movies were then compared with eye movements in several control conditions. "Stop-motion" movies had almost identical semantic content as the original videos but lacked continuous motion. Hollywood action movie trailers were used to probe the upper limit of eye movement coherence that can be achieved by deliberate camera work, scene cuts, etc. In a "repetitive" condition, subjects viewed the same movies ten times each over the course of 2 days. Results show several systematic differences between conditions both for general eye movement parameters such as saccade amplitude and fixation duration and for eye movement variability. Most importantly, eye movements on static images are initially driven by stimulus onset effects and later, more so than on continuous videos, by subject-specific idiosyncrasies; eye movements on Hollywood movies are significantly more coherent than those on natural movies. We conclude that the stimuli types often used in laboratory experiments, static images and professionally cut material, are not very representative of natural viewing behavior. All stimuli and gaze data are publicly available at http://www.inb.uni-luebeck.de/tools-demos/gaze.

The role of CO2 variability and exposure time for biological impacts of ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Emily C.; Munday, Philip L.; McNeil, Ben I.

2013-09-01

impacts of ocean acidification have mostly been studied using future levels of CO2 without consideration of natural variability or how this modulates both duration and magnitude of CO2 exposure. Here we combine results from laboratory studies on coral reef fish with diurnal in situ CO2 data from a shallow coral reef, to demonstrate how natural variability alters exposure times for marine organisms under increasingly high-CO2 conditions. Large in situ CO2 variability already results in exposure of coral reef fish to short-term CO2 levels higher than laboratory-derived critical CO2 levels (~600 µatm). However, we suggest that the in situ exposure time is presently insufficient to induce negative effects observed in laboratory studies. Our results suggest that both exposure time and the magnitude of CO2 levels will be important in determining the response of organisms to future ocean acidification, where both will increase markedly with future increases in CO2.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Separation of natural product using columns packed with Fused-Core particles.

PubMed

Yang, Peilin; Litwinski, George R; Pursch, Matthias; McCabe, Terry; Kuppannan, Krishna

2009-06-01

Three HPLC columns packed with 3 microm, sub-2 microm, and 2.7 microm Fused-Core (superficially porous) particles were compared in separation performance using two natural product mixtures containing 15 structurally related components. The Ascentis Express C18 column packed with Fused-Core particles showed an 18% increase in column efficiency (theoretical plates), a 76% increase in plate number per meter, a 65% enhancement in separation speed and a 19% increase in back pressure compared to the Atlantis T3 C18 column packed with 3 microm particles. Column lot-to-lot variability for critical pairs in the natural product mixture was observed with both columns, with the Atlantis T3 column exhibiting a higher degree of variability. The Ascentis Express column was also compared with the Acquity BEH column packed with sub-2 microm particles. Although the peak efficiencies obtained by the Ascentis Express column were only about 74% of those obtained by the Acquity BEH column, the 50% lower back pressure and comparable separation speed allowed high-efficiency and high-speed separation to be performed using conventional HPLC instrumentation.

AGN Variability in the GOODS Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarajedini, Vicki

2007-07-01

Variability is a proven method to identify intrinsically faint active nuclei in galaxies found in deep HST surveys. We propose to extend our short-term variability study of the GOODS fields to include the more recent epochs obtained via supernovae searchers, increasing the overall time baseline from 6 months to 2.5 years. Based on typical AGN lightcurves, we expect to detect 70% more AGN by including these more recent epochs. Variable-detected AGN samples complement current X-ray and mid-IR surveys for AGN by providing unambigous evidence of nuclear activity. Additionallty, a significant number of variable nuclei are not associated with X-ray or mid-IR sources and would thus go undetected. With the increased time baseline, we will be able to construct the structure function {variability amplitude vs. time} for low-luminosity AGN to z 1. The inclusion of the longer time interval will allow for better descrimination among the various models describing the nature of AGN variability. The variability survey will be compared against spectroscopically selected AGN from the Team Keck Redshift Survey of the GOODS-N and the upcoming Flamingos-II NIR survey of the GOODS-S. The high-resolution ACS images will be used to separate the AGN from the host galaxy light and study the morphology, size and environment of the host galaxy. These studies will address questions concerning the nature of low-luminosity AGN evolution and variability at z 1.

The nature and use of prediction skills in a biological computer simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavoie, Derrick R.; Good, Ron

The primary goal of this study was to examine the science process skill of prediction using qualitative research methodology. The think-aloud interview, modeled after Ericsson and Simon (1984), let to the identification of 63 program exploration and prediction behaviors.The performance of seven formal and seven concrete operational high-school biology students were videotaped during a three-phase learning sequence on water pollution. Subjects explored the effects of five independent variables on two dependent variables over time using a computer-simulation program. Predictions were made concerning the effect of the independent variables upon dependent variables through time. Subjects were identified according to initial knowledge of the subject matter and success at solving three selected prediction problems.Successful predictors generally had high initial knowledge of the subject matter and were formal operational. Unsuccessful predictors generally had low initial knowledge and were concrete operational. High initial knowledge seemed to be more important to predictive success than stage of Piagetian cognitive development.Successful prediction behaviors involved systematic manipulation of the independent variables, note taking, identification and use of appropriate independent-dependent variable relationships, high interest and motivation, and in general, higher-level thinking skills. Behaviors characteristic of unsuccessful predictors were nonsystematic manipulation of independent variables, lack of motivation and persistence, misconceptions, and the identification and use of inappropriate independent-dependent variable relationships.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Treesearch

Lisa A. McCauley; Christine A. Ribic; Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

2017-01-01

Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few...

Relationships of field habitat measurements, visual habitat indices, and land cover to benthic macroinvertebrates in urbanized streams of the Santa Clara Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fend, S.V.; Carter, J.L.; Kearns, F.R.

2005-01-01

We evaluated several approaches for measuring natural and anthropogenic habitat characteristics to predict benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages over a range of urban intensity at 85 stream sites in the Santa Clara Valley, California. Land cover was summarized as percentage urban land cover and impervious area within upstream buffers and the upstream subwatersheds. Field measurements characterized water chemistry, channel slope, sediment, and riparian canopy. In . addition to applying the visual-based habitat assessment in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's rapid bioassessment protocol, we developed a simplified urban habitat assessment index based on turbidity, fine sediment deposition, riparian condition, and channel modification. Natural and anthropogenic habitat variables covaried along longitudinal stream gradients and were highly correlated with elevation. At the scale of the entire watershed, benthic macroinvertebrate measures were equally correlated with variables expressing natural gradients and urbanization effects. When natural gradients were reduced by partitioning sites into ecoregion subsection groupings, habitat variables most highly correlated with macroinvertebrate measures differed between upland and valley floor site groups. Among the valley floor sites, channel slope and physical modification of channel and riparian habitats appeared more important than upstream land cover or water quality in determining macroinvertebrate richness and ordination scores. Among upland sites, effects of upstream reservoir releases on habitat quality appeared important. Rapid habitat evaluation methods appeared to be an effective method for describing habitat features important to benthic macroinvertebrates when adapted for the region and the disturbance of interest. ?? 2005 by the American Fisheries Society.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Natural variability in Drosophila larval and pupal NaCl tolerance.

PubMed

Riedl, Craig A L; Oster, Sara; Busto, Macarena; Mackay, Trudy F C; Sokolowski, Marla B

2016-05-01

The regulation of NaCl is essential for the maintenance of cellular tonicity and functionality, and excessive salt exposure has many adverse effects. The fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, is a good osmoregulator and some strains can survive on media with very low or high NaCl content. Previous analyses of mutant alleles have implicated various stress signaling cascades in NaCl sensitivity or tolerance; however, the genes influencing natural variability of NaCl tolerance remain for the most part unknown. Here, we use two approaches to investigate natural variation in D. melanogaster NaCl tolerance. We describe four D. melanogaster lines that were selected for different degrees of NaCl tolerance, and present data on their survival, development, and pupation position when raised on varying NaCl concentrations. After finding evidence for natural variation in salt tolerance, we present the results of Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) mapping of natural variation in larval and pupal NaCl tolerance, and identify different genomic regions associated with NaCl tolerance during larval and pupal development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid, high-resolution measurement of leaf area and leaf orientation using terrestrial LiDAR scanning data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The rapid evolution of high performance computing technology has allowed for the development of extremely detailed models of the urban and natural environment. Although models can now represent sub-meter-scale variability in environmental geometry, model users are often unable to specify the geometr...

Induced plant defenses, host–pathogen interactions, and forest insect outbreaks

PubMed Central

Elderd, Bret D.; Rehill, Brian J.; Haynes, Kyle J.; Dwyer, Greg

2013-01-01

Cyclic outbreaks of defoliating insects devastate forests, but their causes are poorly understood. Outbreak cycles are often assumed to be driven by density-dependent mortality due to natural enemies, because pathogens and predators cause high mortality and because natural-enemy models reproduce fluctuations in defoliation data. The role of induced defenses is in contrast often dismissed, because toxic effects of defenses are often weak and because induced-defense models explain defoliation data no better than natural-enemy models. Natural-enemy models, however, fail to explain gypsy moth outbreaks in North America, in which outbreaks in forests with a higher percentage of oaks have alternated between severe and mild, whereas outbreaks in forests with a lower percentage of oaks have been uniformly moderate. Here we show that this pattern can be explained by an interaction between induced defenses and a natural enemy. We experimentally induced hydrolyzable-tannin defenses in red oak, to show that induction reduces variability in a gypsy moth’s risk of baculovirus infection. Because this effect can modulate outbreak severity and because oaks are the only genus of gypsy moth host tree that can be induced, we extended a natural-enemy model to allow for spatial variability in inducibility. Our model shows alternating outbreaks in forests with a high frequency of oaks, and uniform outbreaks in forests with a low frequency of oaks, matching the data. The complexity of this effect suggests that detecting effects of induced defenses on defoliator cycles requires a combination of experiments and models. PMID:23966566

Groundwater-fed irrigation impacts spatially distributed temporal scaling behavior of the natural system: a spatio-temporal framework for understanding water management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condon, Laura E.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2014-03-01

Regional scale water management analysis increasingly relies on integrated modeling tools. Much recent work has focused on groundwater-surface water interactions and feedbacks. However, to our knowledge, no study has explicitly considered impacts of management operations on the temporal dynamics of the natural system. Here, we simulate twenty years of hourly moisture dependent, groundwater-fed irrigation using a three-dimensional, fully integrated, hydrologic model (ParFlow-CLM). Results highlight interconnections between irrigation demand, groundwater oscillation frequency and latent heat flux variability not previously demonstrated. Additionally, the three-dimensional model used allows for novel consideration of spatial patterns in temporal dynamics. Latent heat flux and water table depth both display spatial organization in temporal scaling, an important finding given the spatial homogeneity and weak scaling observed in atmospheric forcings. Pumping and irrigation amplify high frequency (sub-annual) variability while attenuating low frequency (inter-annual) variability. Irrigation also intensifies scaling within irrigated areas, essentially increasing temporal memory in both the surface and the subsurface. These findings demonstrate management impacts that extend beyond traditional water balance considerations to the fundamental behavior of the system itself. This is an important step to better understanding groundwater’s role as a buffer for natural variability and the impact that water management has on this capacity.

Assessing toxicant effects in a complex estuary: A case study of effects of silver on reproduction in the bivalve, Potamocorbula amurensis, in San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, C.L.; Parchaso, F.; Thompson, J.K.; Luoma, S.N.

2003-01-01

Contaminant exposures in natural systems can be highly variable. This variability is superimposed upon cyclic variability in biological processes. Together, these factors can confound determination of contaminant effects. Long term, multidisciplined studies with high frequency sampling can be effective in overcoming such obstacles. While studying trace metal contamination in the tissues of the clam, Potamocorbula amurensis, in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, an episode of high Ag concentrations was identified (maximum of 5.5 ??g g-1) at two mid-estuary sites. High concentrations were not seen in clams up-estuary (maximum of 1.92 ??g g-1) from these sites and were reduced down-estuary (maximum of 2.67 ??g g-1). Silver is not common naturally in the environment, so its elevated presence is usually indicative of anthropogenic influences such as municipal and industrial discharge. Monthly sampling of reproductive status of clams characterized the reproductive cycle and differences in the patterns of reproductive activity that corresponded to changes in Ag tissue concentrations. The proportion of reproductive clams was less than 60% during periods when tissue concentrations were high (generally >2 ??g g-1). When tissue concentrations of Ag decreased (???1 ??g g-1), the proportion of reproductive clams was 80 to 100%. A comparison between the annual proportion of reproductive clams and annual Ag tissue concentrations showed a significant negative correlation. No other measured environmental variables were correlated with reproductive impairment. The weight-of-evidence approach strongly supports a cause and effect relationship between Ag contamination and reduced reproductive activity in P. amurensis.

Assessing toxicant effects in a complex estuary--A case study of effects of silver on reproduction in the bivalve, Potamocurbula amurensis, in San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Cynthia L.; Parchaso, Francis; Thompson, Janet K.; Luoma, Samuel N.

2003-01-01

Contaminant exposures in natural systems can be highly variable. This variability is superimposed upon cyclic variability in biological processes. Together, these factors can confound determination of contaminant effects. Long term, multidisciplined studies with high frequency sampling can be effective in overcoming such obstacles. While studying trace metal contamination in the tissues of the clam, Potamocorbula amurensis, in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay, an episode of high Ag concentrations was identified (maximum of 5.5 µg g−1) at two mid-estuary sites. High concentrations were not seen in clams up-estuary (maximum of 1.92 µg g−1) from these sites and were reduced down-estuary (maximum of 2.67 µg g−1). Silver is not common naturally in the environment, so its elevated presence is usually indicative of anthropogenic influences such as municipal and industrial discharge. Monthly sampling of reproductive status of clams characterized the reproductive cycle and differences in the patterns of reproductive activity that corresponded to changes in Ag tissue concentrations. The proportion of reproductive clams was less than 60% during periods when tissue concentrations were high (generally >2 µg g−1). When tissue concentrations of Ag decreased (≤1 µg g−1), the proportion of reproductive clams was 80 to 100%. A comparison between the annual proportion of reproductive clams and annual Ag tissue concentrations showed a significant negative correlation. No other measured environmental variables were correlated with reproductive impairment. The weight-of-evidence approach strongly supports a cause and effect relationship between Ag contamination and reduced reproductive activity in P. amurensis.

Ocean acidification in the coastal zone from an organism's perspective: multiple system parameters, frequency domains, and habitats.

PubMed

Waldbusser, George G; Salisbury, Joseph E

2014-01-01

Multiple natural and anthropogenic processes alter the carbonate chemistry of the coastal zone in ways that either exacerbate or mitigate ocean acidification effects. Freshwater inputs and multiple acid-base reactions change carbonate chemistry conditions, sometimes synergistically. The shallow nature of these systems results in strong benthic-pelagic coupling, and marine invertebrates at different life history stages rely on both benthic and pelagic habitats. Carbonate chemistry in coastal systems can be highly variable, responding to processes with temporal modes ranging from seconds to centuries. Identifying scales of variability relevant to levels of biological organization requires a fuller characterization of both the frequency and magnitude domains of processes contributing to or reducing acidification in pelagic and benthic habitats. We review the processes that contribute to coastal acidification with attention to timescales of variability and habitats relevant to marine bivalves.

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montgomery, D.R.; Schmidt, K.M.; Dietrich, W.E.; McKean, J.

2009-01-01

The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium. Postfailure observations of the bedrock surface exposed in the debris flow scar reveal a strong spatial correspondence between elevated piezometric response and water discharging from bedrock fractures. Measurements of apparent root cohesion on the basal (Cb) and lateral (Cl) scarp demonstrate substantial local variability, with areally weighted values of Cb = 0.1 and Cl = 4.6 kPa. Using measured soil properties and basal root strength, the widely used infinite slope model, employed assuming slope parallel groundwater flow, provides a poor prediction of hydrologie conditions at failure. In contrast, a model including lateral root strength (but neglecting lateral frictional strength) gave a predicted critical value of relative soil saturation that fell within the range defined by the arithmetic and geometric mean values at the time of failure. The 3-D slope stability model CLARA-W, used with locally observed pore water pressure, predicted small areas with lower factors of safety within the overall slide mass at sites consistent with field observations of where the failure initiated. This highly variable and localized nature of small areas of high pore pressure that can trigger slope failure means, however, that substantial uncertainty appears inevitable for estimating hydrologie conditions within incipient debris flows under natural conditions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties.

PubMed

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Nakano, Kazunari; Zhang, Yong; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanoue, Masahiro; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-07-20

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing to mass loss of Northern Hemisphere mountain glaciers and quantifying their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Nakano, Kazunari; Zhang, Yong; Watanabe, Satoshi; Tanoue, Masahiro; Kanae, Shinjiro

2016-07-01

Observational evidence indicates that a number of glaciers have lost mass in the past. Given that glaciers are highly impacted by the surrounding climate, human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for mass loss. However, previous research studies have been limited to analyzing the past several decades, and it remains unclear whether past glacier mass losses are within the range of natural internal climate variability. Here, we apply an optimal fingerprinting technique to observed and reconstructed mass losses as well as multi-model general circulation model (GCM) simulations of mountain glacier mass to detect and attribute past glacier mass changes. An 8,800-year control simulation of glaciers enabled us to evaluate detectability. The results indicate that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the decreased area-weighted average masses of 85 analyzed glaciers. The effect was larger than the mass increase caused by natural forcing, although the contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to decreases in mass varied at the local scale. We also showed that the detection of anthropogenic or natural influences could not be fully attributed when natural internal climate variability was taken into account.

Follow-up Observations of SDSS and CRTS Candidate Cataclysmic Variables II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szkody, Paula; Everett, Mark E.; Dai, Zhibin; Serna-Grey, Donald

2018-01-01

Spectra of 38 candidate or known cataclysmic variables are presented. Most are candidate dwarf novae or systems containing possible highly magnetic white dwarfs, while a few (KR Aur, LS Peg, V380 Oph, and V694 Mon) are previously known objects caught in unusual states. Individual spectra are used to confirm a dwarf nova nature or other classification while radial velocities of 15 systems provide orbital periods and velocity amplitudes that aid in determining the nature of the objects. Our results substantiate a polar nature for four objects, find an eclipsing SW Sex star below the period gap, another as a likely intermediate polar, as well as two dwarf novae with periods in the middle of the gap. Based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory (APO) 3.5 m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium (ARC).

A Systematic Search for Short-term Variability of EGRET Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, P. M.; Griffis, N. J.; Bertsch, D. L.; Hartman, R. C.; Thompson, D. J.; Kniffen, D. A.; Bloom, S. D.

2000-01-01

The 3rd EGRET Catalog of High-energy Gamma-ray Sources contains 170 unidentified sources, and there is great interest in the nature of these sources. One means of determining source class is the study of flux variability on time scales of days; pulsars are believed to be stable on these time scales while blazers are known to be highly variable. In addition, previous work has demonstrated that 3EG J0241-6103 and 3EG J1837-0606 are candidates for a new gamma-ray source class. These sources near the Galactic plane display transient behavior but cannot be associated with any known blazers. Although, many instances of flaring AGN have been reported, the EGRET database has not been systematically searched for occurrences of short-timescale (approximately 1 day) variability. These considerations have led us to conduct a systematic search for short-term variability in EGRET data, covering all viewing periods through proposal cycle 4. Six 3EG catalog sources are reported here to display variability on short time scales; four of them are unidentified. In addition, three non-catalog variable sources are discussed.

Designing nacre-like materials for simultaneous stiffness, strength and toughness: Optimum materials, composition, microstructure and size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthelat, Francois

2014-12-01

Nacre, bone and spider silk are staggered composites where inclusions of high aspect ratio reinforce a softer matrix. Such staggered composites have emerged through natural selection as the best configuration to produce stiffness, strength and toughness simultaneously. As a result, these remarkable materials are increasingly serving as model for synthetic composites with unusual and attractive performance. While several models have been developed to predict basic properties for biological and bio-inspired staggered composites, the designer is still left to struggle with finding optimum parameters. Unresolved issues include choosing optimum properties for inclusions and matrix, and resolving the contradictory effects of certain design variables. Here we overcome these difficulties with a multi-objective optimization for simultaneous high stiffness, strength and energy absorption in staggered composites. Our optimization scheme includes material properties for inclusions and matrix as design variables. This process reveals new guidelines, for example the staggered microstructure is only advantageous if the tablets are at least five times stronger than the interfaces, and only if high volume concentrations of tablets are used. We finally compile the results into a step-by-step optimization procedure which can be applied for the design of any type of high-performance staggered composite and at any length scale. The procedure produces optimum designs which are consistent with the materials and microstructure of natural nacre, confirming that this natural material is indeed optimized for mechanical performance.

Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O' Riordan, Michael; Pe'er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C.

2017-07-01

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ-ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.

Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution.

PubMed

Potts, Richard; Faith, J Tyler

2015-10-01

Interaction of orbital insolation cycles defines a predictive model of alternating phases of high- and low-climate variability for tropical East Africa over the past 5 million years. This model, which is described in terms of climate variability stages, implies repeated increases in landscape/resource instability and intervening periods of stability in East Africa. It predicts eight prolonged (>192 kyr) eras of intensified habitat instability (high variability stages) in which hominin evolutionary innovations are likely to have occurred, potentially by variability selection. The prediction that repeated shifts toward high climate variability affected paleoenvironments and evolution is tested in three ways. In the first test, deep-sea records of northeast African terrigenous dust flux (Sites 721/722) and eastern Mediterranean sapropels (Site 967A) show increased and decreased variability in concert with predicted shifts in climate variability. These regional measurements of climate dynamics are complemented by stratigraphic observations in five basins with lengthy stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental records: the mid-Pleistocene Olorgesailie Basin, the Plio-Pleistocene Turkana and Olduvai Basins, and the Pliocene Tugen Hills sequence and Hadar Basin--all of which show that highly variable landscapes inhabited by hominin populations were indeed concentrated in predicted stages of prolonged high climate variability. Second, stringent null-model tests demonstrate a significant association of currently known first and last appearance datums (FADs and LADs) of the major hominin lineages, suites of technological behaviors, and dispersal events with the predicted intervals of prolonged high climate variability. Palynological study in the Nihewan Basin, China, provides a third test, which shows the occupation of highly diverse habitats in eastern Asia, consistent with the predicted increase in adaptability in dispersing Oldowan hominins. Integration of fossil, archeological, sedimentary, and paleolandscape evidence illustrates the potential influence of prolonged high variability on the origin and spread of critical adaptations and lineages in the evolution of Homo. The growing body of data concerning environmental dynamics supports the idea that the evolution of adaptability in response to climate and overall ecological instability represents a unifying theme in hominin evolutionary history. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Restoring Natural Streamflow Variability by Modifying Multi-purpose Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiau, J.

2010-12-01

Multi-purpose reservoirs typically provide benefits of water supply, hydroelectric power, and flood mitigation. Hydroelectric power generations generally do not consume water. However, temporal distribution of downstream flows is highly changed due to hydro-peaking effects. Associated with offstream diversion of water supplies for municipal, industrial, and agricultural requirements, natural streamflow characteristics of magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change is significantly altered by multi-purpose reservoir operation. Natural flow regime has long been recognized a master factor for ecosystem health and biodiversity. Restoration of altered flow regime caused by multi-purpose reservoir operation is the main objective of this study. This study presents an optimization framework that modifying reservoir operation to seeking balance between human and environmental needs. The methodology presented in this study is applied to the Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, with main purpose of providing stable water-supply and auxiliary purpose of electricity generation and flood-peak attenuation. Reservoir releases are dominated by two decision variables, i.e., duration of water releases for each day and percentage of daily required releases within the duration. The current releasing policy of the Feitsui Reservoir releases water for water-supply and hydropower purposes during 8:00 am to 16:00 pm each day and no environmental flows releases. Although greater power generation is obtained by 100% releases distributed within 8-hour period, severe temporal alteration of streamflow is observed downstream of the reservoir. Modifying reservoir operation by relaxing these two variables and reserve certain ratio of streamflow as environmental flow to maintain downstream natural variability. The optimal reservoir releasing policy is searched by the multi-criterion decision making technique for considering reservoir performance in terms of shortage ratio and power generation and downstream hydrologic alterations in terms of ecological relevant indicators. The results show that the proposed methodology can mitigate hydro-peaking effects on natural variability, while maintains efficient reservoir operation.

Acclimatization of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to variable pCO₂.

PubMed

Johnson, Maggie D; Moriarty, Vincent W; Carpenter, Robert C

2014-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) has important implications for the persistence of coral reef ecosystems, due to potentially negative effects on biomineralization. Many coral reefs are dynamic with respect to carbonate chemistry, and experience fluctuations in pCO₂ that exceed OA projections for the near future. To understand the influence of dynamic pCO₂ on an important reef calcifier, we tested the response of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to oscillating pCO₂. Individuals were exposed to ambient (400 µatm), high (660 µatm), or variable pCO₂ (oscillating between 400/660 µatm) treatments for 14 days. To explore the potential for coralline acclimatization, we collected individuals from low and high pCO₂ variability sites (upstream and downstream respectively) on a back reef characterized by unidirectional water flow in Moorea, French Polynesia. We quantified the effects of treatment on algal calcification by measuring the change in buoyant weight, and on algal metabolism by conducting sealed incubations to measure rates of photosynthesis and respiration. Net photosynthesis was higher in the ambient treatment than the variable treatment, regardless of habitat origin, and there was no effect on respiration or gross photosynthesis. Exposure to high pCO₂ decreased P. onkodes calcification by >70%, regardless of the original habitat. In the variable treatment, corallines from the high variability habitat calcified 42% more than corallines from the low variability habitat. The significance of the original habitat for the coralline calcification response to variable, high pCO₂ indicates that individuals existing in dynamic pCO₂ habitats may be acclimatized to OA within the scope of in situ variability. These results highlight the importance of accounting for natural pCO₂ variability in OA manipulations, and provide insight into the potential for plasticity in habitat and species-specific responses to changing ocean chemistry.

Microsatellite variation reveals weak genetic structure and retention of genetic variability in threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a Snake River watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, Helen; Issacs, Frank B.; Thurow, Russel; Dunham, J.B.; Rieman, B.

2007-01-01

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) have been central to the development of management concepts associated with evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), yet there are still relatively few studies of genetic diversity within threatened and endangered ESUs for salmon or other species. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci to evaluate spatial population structure and genetic variability in indigenous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) across a large wilderness basin within a Snake River ESU. Despite dramatic 20th century declines in abundance, these populations retained robust levels of genetic variability. No significant genetic bottlenecks were found, although the bottleneck metric (M ratio) was significantly correlated with average population size and variability. Weak but significant genetic structure existed among tributaries despite evidence of high levels of gene flow, with the strongest genetic differentiation mirroring the physical segregation of fish from two sub-basins. Despite the more recent colonization of one sub-basin and differences between sub-basins in the natural level of fragmentation, gene diversity and genetic differentiation were similar between sub-basins. Various factors, such as the (unknown) genetic contribution of precocial males, genetic compensation, lack of hatchery influence, and high levels of current gene flow may have contributed to the persistence of genetic variability in this system in spite of historical declines. This unique study of indigenous Chinook salmon underscores the importance of maintaining natural populations in interconnected and complex habitats to minimize losses of genetic diversity within ESUs.

Nature and nurture in the family physician's choice of practice location.

PubMed

Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Lovato, Chris; Bates, Joanna; Slade, Steve; Grand'Maison, Paul; Vanasse, Alain

2011-01-01

An understanding of the contextual, professional, and personal factors that affect choice of practice location for physicians is needed to support successful strategies in addressing geographic maldistribution of physicians. This study compared two categories of predictors of family practice location in non-metropolitan areas among undergraduate medical students: individual characteristics (nature), and the rural program component of their training program (nurture). The study aimed to identify factors that predict the location of practice 2 years post-residency training and determine the predictive value of combining nature and nurture variables using administrative data from two undergraduate medical education programs. Databases were developed from available administrative sources for a retrospective analysis of two undergraduate medical education programs in Canada: Université de Sherbrooke (UdeS) and University of British Columbia (UBC). Both schools have a strong mandate to evaluate the impact of their programs on physician distribution. The dependent variable was location of practice 2 years after completing postgraduate training in family medicine. Independent variables included individual and program characteristics. Separate analyses were conducted for each program using multiple logistic regression. The nature and nurture variables considered in the models explained only 21% to 27% of the variance in the eventual location of practice of family physician graduates. For UdeS, having an address in a rural/small-town environment at application to medical school (OR=2.61, 95% CI: 1.24-6.06) and for UBC, location of high school in a rural/small town (OR=4.03, 95% CI: 1.05-15.41), both increased the chances of practicing in a non-metropolitan area. For UdeS the nurture variable (ie length of clerkship in a non-metropolitan area) was the most significant predictor (OR=1.14, 95% CI: 1.067-1.22). For both medical schools, adding a single nurture variable to the model using only nature variables significantly increased the amount of variation accounted for in predicting location of practice in non-metropolitan areas. Aspects of graduates' rural background increase the chances of practicing in a non-metropolitan area. A third-year clerkship experience in a rural area may increase the chances of non-metropolitan practice. Although the total variation predicted by both nature and nurture variables in this study was small, adding a nurture variable significantly improves the prediction of individuals who will practice in a non-metropolitan area. The fact that total variation predicted was small is likely to be due to the limitations of the administrative databases used. Different strategies are being implemented in each university to improve the quality of existing administrative databases, as well as to collect relevant data about intent-to-practice, training characteristics, and the attitudes, beliefs and backgrounds of students.

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

California is currently in its fourth year of a drought that has caused record-breaking rates of ground-water extraction, fallowed agricultural fields, changes to water-use policy, dangrously low lake levels, and ecological disturbances such as large wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks. A common and important question is: to what degree can the severity of this drought in California, or of any drought globally, be blamed on human-caused global warming? Here we present the most comprehensive accounting of the natural and anthropogenic contributions to drought variability to date, and we provide an in-depth evaluation of the recent extreme drought in California. A suite of climate datasets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901-2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record-breaking in 2014, but probably not record-breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record-breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Analyses will be updated through 2015 for this presentation. Although natural climate variability has often masked the background effects of warming on drought, the background effect is becoming increasingly detectable and important, particularly by increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. The dramatic effects of the current drought in California, combined with knowledge that the background warming-driven drought trend will continue to intensify amidst a high degree of natural climate variability, highlight the critical need for a long-term outlook on drought resilience even though wet conditions are likely to soon mitigate the current drought event.

Coastal vulnerability assessment with the use of environmental and socio-economic indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Petrakis, Stelios; Vousdoukas, Mixalis; Ghionis, George; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Climate change has significant repercussions on the natural environment, triggering obvious changes in the natural processes that have a severe socio-economic impact on the coastal zone; where a great number of human activities are concentrated. So far, the estimation of coastal vulnerability was based primarily on the natural processes and less on socio-economic variables, which would assist in the identification of vulnerable areas. The present investigation proposes a methodology to examine the vulnerability of a highly touristic area in the Island of Crete to an expected sea level rise of up to ~40 cm by the year 2100, according to the A1B scenario of IPCC 2007. The methodology includes the combination of socio-economic indicators into a GIS-based coastal vulnerability index for wave-induced erosion. This approach includes three sub-indices that contribute equally to the overall index. The sub-indices refer to coastal forcing, socio-economic and coastal characteristics. All variables are ranked on a 1-5 scale with 5 indicating higher vulnerability. The socio-economic sub-index includes, as indicators, the population of the study area, cultural heritage sites, transport networks, land use and protection measures. The coastal forcing sub-index includes the frequency of extreme events, while the Coastal Vulnerability Index includes the geological variables (coastal geomorphology, historical coastline changes, and regional coastal slope) and the variables representing the marine processes (relative sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range). The main difficulty for the estimation of the index lies in assessing and ranking the socio-economic indicators. The whole approach was tested and validated through field and desktop studies, using as a case study the Elouda bay, Crete Isl., an area of high cultural and economic value, which combines monuments from ancient and medieval times, with a very high touristic development since the 1970s.

Hydrochemical simulation of a mountain basin under hydrological variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montserrat, S.; Trewhela, T. A.; Navarro, L.; Navarrete, A.; Lagos Zuniga, M. A.; Garcia, A.; Caraballo, M.; Niño, Y.; McPhee, J. P.

2016-12-01

Water quality and the comprehension of hydrochemical phenomena in natural basins should be of complete relevance under hydrological uncertainties. The importance of identifying the main variables that are controlling a natural system and finding a way to predict their behavior under variable scenarios is mandatory to preserve these natural basins. This work presents an interdisciplinary model for the Yerba Loca watershed, a natural reserve basin in the Chilean central Andes. Based on different data sets, provided by public and private campaigns, a natural hydrochemical regime was identified. Yerba Loca is a natural reserve, characterized by the presence of several glaciers and wide sediment deposits crossed by a small low-slope creek in the upper part of the basin that leads to a high-slope narrow channel with less sediment depositions. Most relevant is the geological context around the glaciers, considering that most of them cover hydrothermal zones rich in both sulfides and sulfates, a situation commonly found in the Andes due to volcanic activity. Low pH (around 3), calcium-sulfate water with high concentrations of Iron, Copper and Zinc are found in the upper part of the basin in summer. These values can be attributed to the glaciers melting down and draining of the mentioned country rocks, which provide most of the creek flow in the upper basin. The latter clearly contrasts with the creek outlet, located 18 km downstream, showing near to neutral pH values and lower concentrations of the elements already mentioned. The scope of the present research is to account for the sources of the different hydrological inlets (e.g., rainfall, snow and/or glacier melting) that, depending on their location, may interact with a variety of reactive minerals and generate acid rock drainage (ARD). The inlet water is modeled along the creek using the softwares HEC-RAS and PHREEQC coupled, in order to characterize the water quality and to detect preferred sedimentation sections retaining precipitated minerals, mostly Iron and Aluminium hydroxysulfates, due to low velocity flow in those areas. Validation of the results is done using several data sets that show cycles along seasons under variable outflow and chemical conditions in the outlet of the basin, responding to the same inflow and initial chemical data used for simulation.

Influence of natural temperature gradients on measurements of xylem sap flow with thermal dissipation probes. 1. Field observations and possible remedies.

PubMed

Do, F; Rocheteau, A

2002-06-01

The thermal dissipation method is simple and widely used for measuring sap flow in large stems. As with several other thermal methods, natural temperature gradients are assumed to be negligible in the sapwood being measured. We studied the magnitude and variability of natural temperature gradients in sapwood of Acacia trees growing in the Sahelian zone of Senegal, analyzed their effects on sap flow measurements, and investigated possible solutions. A new measurement approach employing cyclic heating (45 minutes of heating and 15 minutes of cooling; 45/15) was also tested. Three-day measurement sequences that included 1 day without heating, a second day with continuous heating and a third day with cyclic heating were recorded during a 6.5-month period using probes installed at three azimuths in a tree trunk. Natural temperature gradients between the two probes of the sensor unit, spaced 8 to 10 cm vertically, were rarely negligible (i.e., < 0.2 degrees C): they were positive during the night and negative during the day, with an amplitude ranging from 0.3 to 3.5 degrees C depending on trunk azimuth, day and season. These temperature gradients had a direct influence on the signal from the continuously heated sensors, inducing fluctuations in the nighttime reference signal. The resulting errors in sap flow estimates can be greater than 100%. Correction protocols have been proposed in previous studies, but they were unsuitable because of the high spatial and temporal variability of the natural temperature gradients. We found that a measurement signal derived from a noncontinuous heating system could be an attractive solution because it appears to be independent of natural temperature gradients. The magnitude and variability of temperature gradients that we observed were likely exacerbated by the combination of open stand, high solar radiation and low sap flow rate. However, for all applications of the thermal dissipation method, it is wise to check regularly for natural temperature gradients by switching off the heater.

Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River

PubMed Central

Radinger, Johannes; Wolter, Christian; Kail, Jochem

2015-01-01

Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream) to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049) and topological variables (e.g., stream order) were included (AUC = +0.014). Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species’ presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity) were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types) and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform) were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i) the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables) to predict fish presence, (ii) the importance of considering habitat at spatial scales larger than the sampling site, and (iii) that the importance of (river morphological) habitat characteristics differs depending on the spatial scale. PMID:26569119

Density dependence in demography and dispersal generates fluctuating invasion speeds

PubMed Central

Li, Bingtuan; Miller, Tom E. X.

2017-01-01

Density dependence plays an important role in population regulation and is known to generate temporal fluctuations in population density. However, the ways in which density dependence affects spatial population processes, such as species invasions, are less understood. Although classical ecological theory suggests that invasions should advance at a constant speed, empirical work is illuminating the highly variable nature of biological invasions, which often exhibit nonconstant spreading speeds, even in simple, controlled settings. Here, we explore endogenous density dependence as a mechanism for inducing variability in biological invasions with a set of population models that incorporate density dependence in demographic and dispersal parameters. We show that density dependence in demography at low population densities—i.e., an Allee effect—combined with spatiotemporal variability in population density behind the invasion front can produce fluctuations in spreading speed. The density fluctuations behind the front can arise from either overcompensatory population growth or density-dependent dispersal, both of which are common in nature. Our results show that simple rules can generate complex spread dynamics and highlight a source of variability in biological invasions that may aid in ecological forecasting. PMID:28442569

Managing Financial Risk to Hydropower in Snow Dominated Systems: A Hetch Hetchy Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, A. L.; Characklis, G. W.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Hydropower generation in snow dominated systems is vulnerable to severe shortfalls in years with low snowpack. Meanwhile, generators are also vulnerable to variability in electricity demand and wholesale electricity prices, both of which can be impacted by factors such as temperature and natural gas price. Year-to-year variability in these underlying stochastic variables leads to financial volatility and the threat of low revenue periods, which can be highly disruptive for generators with large fixed operating costs and debt service. In this research, the Hetch Hetchy Power system is used to characterize financial risk in a snow dominated hydropower system. Owned and operated by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, Hetch Hetchy generates power for its own municipal operations and sells excess power to irrigation districts, as well as on the wholesale market. This investigation considers the effects of variability in snowpack, temperature, and natural gas price on Hetch Hetchy Power's yearly revenues. This information is then used to evaluate the effectiveness of various financial risk management tools for hedging against revenue variability. These tools are designed to mitigate against all three potential forms of financial risk (i.e. low hydropower generation, low electricity demand, and low/high electricity price) and include temperature-based derivative contracts, natural gas price-based derivative contracts, and a novel form of snowpack-based index insurance contract. These are incorporated into a comprehensive risk management portfolio, along with self-insurance in which the utility buffers yearly revenue volatility using a contingency fund. By adaptively managing the portfolio strategy, a utility can efficiently spread yearly risks over a multi-year time horizon. The Borg Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm is used to generate a set of Pareto optimal portfolio strategies, which are used to compare the tradeoffs in objectives such as expected revenues, low revenues, revenue volatility, and portfolio complexity.

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Anonymous broadcasting of classical information with a continuous-variable topological quantum code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menicucci, Nicolas C.; Baragiola, Ben Q.; Demarie, Tommaso F.; Brennen, Gavin K.

2018-03-01

Broadcasting information anonymously becomes more difficult as surveillance technology improves, but remarkably, quantum protocols exist that enable provably traceless broadcasting. The difficulty is making scalable entangled resource states that are robust to errors. We propose an anonymous broadcasting protocol that uses a continuous-variable surface-code state that can be produced using current technology. High squeezing enables large transmission bandwidth and strong anonymity, and the topological nature of the state enables local error mitigation.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

PubMed Central

Williams, A. Park

2016-01-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053

Hydrological classification of natural flow regimes to support environmental flow assessments in intensively regulated Mediterranean rivers, Segura River Basin (Spain).

PubMed

Belmar, Oscar; Velasco, Josefa; Martinez-Capel, Francisco

2011-05-01

Hydrological classification constitutes the first step of a new holistic framework for developing regional environmental flow criteria: the "Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA)". The aim of this study was to develop a classification for 390 stream sections of the Segura River Basin based on 73 hydrological indices that characterize their natural flow regimes. The hydrological indices were calculated with 25 years of natural monthly flows (1980/81-2005/06) derived from a rainfall-runoff model developed by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Public Works. These indices included, at a monthly or annual basis, measures of duration of droughts and central tendency and dispersion of flow magnitude (average, low and high flow conditions). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated high redundancy among most hydrological indices, as well as two gradients: flow magnitude for mainstream rivers and temporal variability for tributary streams. A classification with eight flow-regime classes was chosen as the most easily interpretable in the Segura River Basin, which was supported by ANOSIM analyses. These classes can be simplified in 4 broader groups, with different seasonal discharge pattern: large rivers, perennial stable streams, perennial seasonal streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams. They showed a high degree of spatial cohesion, following a gradient associated with climatic aridity from NW to SE, and were well defined in terms of the fundamental variables in Mediterranean streams: magnitude and temporal variability of flows. Therefore, this classification is a fundamental tool to support water management and planning in the Segura River Basin. Future research will allow us to study the flow alteration-ecological response relationship for each river type, and set the basis to design scientifically credible environmental flows following the ELOHA framework.

An estimator for the standard deviation of a natural frequency. II.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schiff, A. J.; Bogdanoff, J. L.

1971-01-01

A method has been presented for estimating the variability of a system's natural frequencies arising from the variability of the system's parameters. The only information required to obtain the estimates is the member variability, in the form of second-order properties, and the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the mean system. It has also been established for the systems studied by means of Monte Carlo estimates that the specification of second-order properties is an adequate description of member variability.

High spatiotemporal variability in meiofaunal assemblages in Blanes Canyon (NW Mediterranean) subject to anthropogenic and natural disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Román, Sara; Vanreusel, Ann; Romano, Chiara; Ingels, Jeroen; Puig, Pere; Company, Joan B.; Martin, Daniel

2016-11-01

We investigated the natural and anthropogenic drivers controlling the spatiotemporal distribution of the meiofauna in the submarine Blanes Canyon, and its adjacent western slope (NW Mediterranean margin of the Iberian Peninsula). We analyzed the relationships between the main sedimentary environmental variables (i.e. grain size, Chl-a, Chl-a: phaeopigments, CPE, organic carbon and total nitrogen) and the density and structure of the meiofaunal assemblages along a bathymetric gradient (from 500 to 2000 m depth) in spring and autumn of 2012 and 2013. Twenty-one and 16 major taxa were identified for respectively the canyon and slope, where the assemblages were always dominated by nematodes. The gradual decreasing meiofaunal densities with increasing depth at the slope showed little variability among stations and corresponded with a uniform pattern of food availability. The canyon was environmentally much more variable and sediments contained greater amounts of food resources (Chl-a and CPE) throughout, leading not only to increased meiofaunal densities compared to the slope, but also different assemblages in terms of composition and structure. This variability in the canyon is only partly explained by seasonal food inputs. The high densities found at 900 m and 1200 m depth coincided with significant increases in food availability compared to shallower and deeper stations in the canyon. Our results suggest that the disruption in expected bathymetric decrease in densities at 900-1200 m water depth coincided with noticeable changes in the environmental variables typical for disturbance and deposition events (e.g., higher sand content and CPE), evoking the hypothesis of an anthropogenic effect at these depths in the canyon. The increased downward particle fluxes at 900-1200 m depth caused by bottom trawling along canyon flanks, as reported in previous studies, support our hypothesis and allude to a substantial anthropogenic factor influencing benthic assemblages at these depths. The possible relationships of the observed patterns and some major natural environmental (e.g., surface productivity or dense shelf water cascading) and anthropogenic (e.g. the lateral advection and downward transport of food-enriched sediments resuspended by the daily canyon-flank trawling activities) drivers are discussed.

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789

Dynamics of the Coupled Human-climate System Resulting from Closed-loop Control of Solar Geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Keith, David

2014-07-08

If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM, in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response; this would also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. This feedback creates an emergent coupled human-climate system, with entirely new dynamics. In addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a simple box-diffusion dynamic model tomore » understand how changing feedback-control parameters and time delay affect the behavior of this coupled natural-human system, and verify these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain), but a delayed response needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to uncertain changes.« less

Biogeochemical typology and temporal variability of lagoon waters in a coral reef ecosystem subject to terrigeneous and anthropogenic inputs (New Caledonia).

PubMed

Fichez, R; Chifflet, S; Douillet, P; Gérard, P; Gutierrez, F; Jouon, A; Ouillon, S; Grenz, C

2010-01-01

Considering the growing concern about the impact of anthropogenic inputs on coral reefs and coral reef lagoons, surprisingly little attention has been given to the relationship between those inputs and the trophic status of lagoon waters. The present paper describes the distribution of biogeochemical parameters in the coral reef lagoon of New Caledonia where environmental conditions allegedly range from pristine oligotrophic to anthropogenically influenced. The study objectives were to: (i) identify terrigeneous and anthropogenic inputs and propose a typology of lagoon waters, (ii) determine temporal variability of water biogeochemical parameters at time-scales ranging from hours to seasons. Combined ACP-cluster analyses revealed that over the 2000 km(2) lagoon area around the city of Nouméa, "natural" terrigeneous versus oceanic influences affecting all stations only accounted for less than 20% of the spatial variability whereas 60% of that spatial variability could be attributed to significant eutrophication of a limited number of inshore stations. ACP analysis allowed to unambiguously discriminating between the natural trophic enrichment along the offshore-inshore gradient and anthropogenically induced eutrophication. High temporal variability in dissolved inorganic nutrients concentrations strongly hindered their use as indicators of environmental status. Due to longer turn over time, particulate organic material and more specifically chlorophyll a appeared as more reliable nonconservative tracer of trophic status. Results further provided evidence that ENSO occurrences might temporarily lower the trophic status of the New Caledonia lagoon. It is concluded that, due to such high frequency temporal variability, the use of biogeochemical parameters in environmental surveys require adapted sampling strategies, data management and environmental alert methods. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

1998-03-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of naphthenic acids in natural waters surrounding the Canadian oil sands industry.

PubMed

Ross, Matthew S; Pereira, Alberto dos Santos; Fennell, Jon; Davies, Martin; Johnson, James; Sliva, Lucie; Martin, Jonathan W

2012-12-04

The Canadian oil sands industry stores toxic oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) in large tailings ponds adjacent to the Athabasca River or its tributaries, raising concerns over potential seepage. Naphthenic acids (NAs; C(n)H(2n-Z)O(2)) are toxic components of OSPW, but are also natural components of bitumen and regional groundwaters, and may enter surface waters through anthropogenic or natural sources. This study used a selective high-resolution mass spectrometry method to examine total NA concentrations and NA profiles in OSPW (n = 2), Athabasca River pore water (n = 6, representing groundwater contributions) and surface waters (n = 58) from the Lower Athabasca Region. NA concentrations in surface water (< 2-80.8 μg/L) were 100-fold lower than previously estimated. Principal components analysis (PCA) distinguished sample types based on NA profile, and correlations to water quality variables identified two sources of NAs: natural fatty acids, and bitumen-derived NAs. Analysis of NA data with water quality variables highlighted two tributaries to the Athabasca River-Beaver River and McLean Creek-as possibly receiving OSPW seepage. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of NA profiles in surface waters of the region, and demonstrates the need for highly selective analytical methods for source identification and in monitoring for potential effects of development on ambient water quality.

Contextual Variability and Exemplar Strength in Phonotactic Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Denby, Thomas; Schecter, Jeffrey; Arn, Sean; Dimov, Svetlin; Goldrick, Matthew

2018-01-01

Phonotactics--constraints on the position and combination of speech sounds within syllables--are subject to statistical differences that gradiently affect speaker and listener behavior (e.g., Vitevitch & Luce, 1999). What statistical properties drive the acquisition of such constraints? Because they are naturally highly correlated, previous…

Variation in bark characters and wood specific gravity of sugar maple

Treesearch

Robert L. Sajdak

1968-01-01

The external appearance of the bark of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) has been described as "deeply furrowed," "fissured with long irregular thick plates or ridges," "somewhat scaly," "sometimes curling," and "highly variable." Adjacent trees in natural stands often have strikingly different...

The Relevance of Big Five Trait Content in Behavior to Subjective Authenticity: Do High Levels of Within-Person Behavioral Variability Undermine or Enable Authenticity Achievement?

PubMed Central

Fleeson, William; Wilt, Joshua

2010-01-01

Individuals vary their behavior from moment to moment a great deal, often acting “out of character” for their traits. This article investigates the consequences for authenticity. We compared two hypotheses—trait consistency: individuals feel most authentic when acting in a way consistent with their traits; and state-content significance: some ways of acting feel more authentic because of their content and consequences, regardless of the actor’s corresponding traits. Three studies using experience-sampling methodology in laboratory and natural settings, with participants aged 18–51, strongly supported the state-content significance hypothesis and did not support the trait-consistency hypothesis. Authenticity was consistently associated with acting highly extraverted, agreeable, conscientious, emotionally stable, and intellectual, regardless of the actor’s traits. Discussion focuses on possible implications for within-person variability in behavior and for the nature of the self-concept. PMID:20545814

Satellite-based Monotoring of mitiple natural disasters in Mongolian socio-ecological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Sinkyu

2016-04-01

In this presentation, a conceptual mechanisms how multiple natural hazards (i.e. drought, dust storm, land degradation, and Dzud) in Mongolia are linked with each other and how satellite earth observation (EO) data can be utilized to analyze cause-and results relations and to predict the natural hazards. Massive loss of livestock and wildlife animal during winter seasons (dzud) is an endemic climatic disaster in the Central Asia grasslands but the mechanisms are not well understood yet. Recent national-wide sever Dzud occurred during 2009-2010 winter in Mongolia. Whereas, high stocking rate of livestock may give negative effects on sustainable use of pastureland. Dzud is a natural mechanism reducing grazing pressure when stocking rate is high enough to cause the negative effect. Both Dzud and land degradation were directly linked with drought phenomena, which is associated with dust storm occurrence because those conditions can cause sparse vegetation and increase of sensible heat generating strong vertical wind. At a lower level of administration (i.e., soum), stepwise multiple regression analysis was conducted to find significant factors of inter-annual livestock change. For a period from 2003 to 2010, various datasets were prepared from national census and satellite data (summer and winter temperature and precipitation, and summer dryness and vegetation index, NDVI). As results, linear regression models were successfully produced at 70% of soums studied. Summer and winter variables appeared equally important in controlling livestock dynamics. Single-factor models were predominant. The primary factor of each soum showed certain regional patterns incident well with climate severity and foraging resource availability (e.g. temperature in north, dryness in south, and NDVI in middle). Our results indicate that Mongolian pastoral livelihood is highly vulnerable to extreme variability of endemic regional climate factors and hence, there are still rooms for enhancing socio-ecological adaptive capacity such as herder's preparedness and governance. We illustrate the seasonal climate-vegetation-livestock interactions with a simplified schematic mechanism model. Our schematic model refined it to give better process-oriented relationships among key variables. Seasonal temperature and precipitation are the primary forcing variables to determine vegetation growth and livestock accessibility to food resources and dryness. Summer standing biomass and winter dry biomass (i.e. residue) were separated and associated with seasonal livestock foraging, respectively. By its mechanistic nature, the schematic model can be applied to test statistical significance of factors associated with annual livestock change or to provide logical grounds on developing a dynamic numerical model in future.

Stress modulation of cellular metabolic sensors: interaction of stress from temperature and rainfall on the intertidal limpet Cellana toreuma.

PubMed

Dong, Yun-Wei; Han, Guo-Dong; Huang, Xiong-Wei

2014-09-01

In the natural environment, organisms are exposed to large variations in physical conditions. Quantifying such physiological responses is, however, often performed in laboratory acclimation studies, in which usually only a single factor is varied. In contrast, field acclimatization may expose organisms to concurrent changes in several environmental variables. The interactions of these factors may have strong effects on organismal function. In particular, rare events that occur stochastically and have relatively short duration may have strong effects. The present experiments studied levels of expression of several genes associated with cellular stress and metabolic regulation in a field population of limpet Cellana toreuma that encountered a wide range of temperatures plus periodic rain events. Physiological responses to these variable conditions were quantified by measuring levels of mRNA of genes encoding heat-shock proteins (Hsps) and metabolic sensors (AMPKs and Sirtuin 1). Our results reveal high ratios of individuals in upregulation group of stress-related gene expression at high temperature and rainy days, indicating the occurrence of stress from both prevailing high summer temperatures and occasional rainfall during periods of emersion. At high temperature, stress due to exposure to rainfall may be more challenging than heat stress alone. The highly variable physiological performances of limpets in their natural habitats indicate the possible differences in capability for physiological regulation among individuals. Our results emphasize the importance of studies of field acclimatization in unravelling the effects of environmental change on organisms, notably in the context of multiple changes in abiotic factors that are accompanying global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riordan, Michael O’; Pe’er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C., E-mail: michael_oriordan@umail.ucc.ie

2017-07-10

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ -ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive blackmore » hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.« less

Diel Variability in Seawater pH Relates to Calcification and Benthic Community Structure on Coral Reefs

PubMed Central

Martz, Todd R.; Brainard, Russell E.

2012-01-01

Community structure and assembly are determined in part by environmental heterogeneity. While reef-building corals respond negatively to warming (i.e. bleaching events) and ocean acidification (OA), the extent of present-day natural variability in pH on shallow reefs and ecological consequences for benthic assemblages is unknown. We documented high resolution temporal patterns in temperature and pH from three reefs in the central Pacific and examined how these data relate to community development and net accretion rates of early successional benthic organisms. These reefs experienced substantial diel fluctuations in temperature (0.78°C) and pH (>0.2) similar to the magnitude of ‘warming’ and ‘acidification’ expected over the next century. Where daily pH within the benthic boundary layer failed to exceed pelagic climatological seasonal lows, net accretion was slower and fleshy, non-calcifying benthic organisms dominated space. Thus, key aspects of coral reef ecosystem structure and function are presently related to natural diurnal variability in pH. PMID:22952785

High Resolution Studies of the Structure of the Solar Atmosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-04

two-fluid solar wind model", submitted to J. Geophys. Res., August 1993. M. B. Arndt, S. R. Habbal, and M. Karovska , "Discrete and localized nature of...the variable emission from active regions", submitted to Solar Phys., August 1993. M. Karovska and F. Blundell, "The fine structure at the limb in a...coronal hole", submitted to Ap. J, August 1993. M. Karovska , M. Arndt and S. R. Habbal, "Spatial and temporal variability of the emission at the limb

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Touchan, R.; Meko, D. M.; Cook, E. R.

2016-12-01

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multidecadal to centennial timescales and north-south antiphasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, and the Balkans) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15 year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude that there is an 89% likelihood that this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood that it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years.

PubMed

Cook, Benjamin I; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M; Cook, Edward R

2016-03-16

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and north-south anti-phasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, the Balkans, etc) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the Western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the Western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15-year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude there is an 89% likelihood this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

Natural versus anthropogenic subsidence of Venice.

PubMed

Tosi, Luigi; Teatini, Pietro; Strozzi, Tazio

2013-09-26

We detected land displacements of Venice by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry using ERS and ENVISAT C-band and TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed X-band acquisitions over the periods 1992-2010 and 2008-2011, respectively. By reason of the larger observation period, the C-band sensors was used to quantify the long-term movements, i.e. the subsidence component primarily ascribed to natural processes. The high resolution X-band satellites reveal a high effectiveness to monitor short-time movements as those induced by human activities. Interpolation of the two datasets and removal of the C-band from the X-band map allows discriminating between the natural and anthropogenic components of the subsidence. A certain variability characterizes the natural subsidence (0.9 ± 0.7 mm/yr), mainly because of the heterogeneous nature and age of the lagoon subsoil. The 2008 displacements show that man interventions are responsible for movements ranging from -10 to 2 mm/yr. These displacements are generally local and distributed along the margins of the city islands.

TraitEnactments as Density Distributions: The Role of Actors, Situations, and Observers in Explaining Stability and Variability

PubMed Central

Fleeson, William; Law, Mary Kate

2015-01-01

The purposes of this paper were to determine (i)whether the high consistency of individual differences in average aggregated behavior is due to actors’ personalities or to consistency in the situations those actors encounter; and(ii)whether the surprisingly high within-person variability in trait enactment is a real phenomenon corroborated by observers, or merely in individuals’ heads. Although traits are supposed to describe what individuals are like in everyday life, little evidence exists about the enactment of trait content in everyday life. Past experience-sampling studies have found both highly variable and highly consistent trait enactment, but were restricted to self-report data and to naturally occurring situations. The current study used experience-sampling in controlled lab environments with 97 targets and 183 observers to address these shortcomings. Targets attended hour-long lab sessions 20x each and observers rated targets’ behavior. Parameters of distributions were highly consistent (r’s ~ .80), revealing that actors were responsible for consistency, not situations. Nonetheless, observer ratings revealed that most variability in trait enactment was within-person, confirming that even when people put it on the line in ways that affect others, they still varied rapidly in the traits they enacted. In the face of two historically vexing objections to traits, this paper supports the density distributions model of traits and argues that trait conceptualizations must accommodate large within-person variability. PMID:26348598

Evaluation of natural sounds in urban greenery: potential impact for urban nature preservation

PubMed Central

Knez, I.; Ode Sang, Å.; Gunnarsson, B.

2017-01-01

Most humans now live in cities and their main experience of nature is through urban greenery. An increasing number of studies show the importance of urban green spaces for well-being, although most of them are based on visual perception. A questionnaire examining people's evaluations of natural sounds was answered by 1326 individuals living near one of six urban green areas of varying naturalness in the city of Gothenburg, Sweden. Women and the elderly reported greater calmness when hearing bird song and rustling leaves (and placed a higher importance on the richness of bird species) than did men, younger and middle-aged individuals. Independent of age and gender, urban woodlands (high naturalness) had higher evaluations than parks (low naturalness). Our results suggest that to increase positive experiences of urban green areas, demographic variables of gender and age should be taken into account, and settings that mimic nature should be prioritized in planning. PMID:28386456

Evidence for a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation

PubMed Central

Pergams, Oliver R. W.; Zaradic, Patricia A.

2008-01-01

After 50 years of steady increase, per capita visits to U.S. National Parks have declined since 1987. To evaluate whether we are seeing a fundamental shift away from people's interest in nature, we tested for similar longitudinal declines in 16 time series representing four classes of nature participation variables: (i) visitation to various types of public lands in the U.S. and National Parks in Japan and Spain, (ii) number of various types of U.S. game licenses issued, (iii) indicators of time spent camping, and (iv) indicators of time spent backpacking or hiking. The four variables with the greatest per capita participation were visits to Japanese National Parks, U.S. State Parks, U.S. National Parks, and U.S. National Forests, with an average individual participating 0.74–2.75 times per year. All four time series are in downtrends, with linear regressions showing ongoing losses of −1.0% to −3.1% per year. The longest and most complete time series tested suggest that typical declines in per capita nature recreation began between 1981 and 1991, are proceeding at rates of −1.0% to −1.3% per year, and total to date −18% to −25%. Spearman correlation analyses were performed on untransformed time series and on transformed percentage year-to-year changes. Results showed very highly significant correlations between many of the highest per capita participation variables in both untransformed and in difference models, further corroborating the general downtrend in nature recreation. In conclusion, all major lines of evidence point to an ongoing and fundamental shift away from nature-based recreation. PMID:18250312

General Nature of Multicollinearity in Multiple Regression Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Richard

1981-01-01

Discusses multiple regression, a very popular statistical technique in the field of education. One of the basic assumptions in regression analysis requires that independent variables in the equation should not be highly correlated. The problem of multicollinearity and some of the solutions to it are discussed. (Author)

Natural habitats matter: Determinants of spatial pattern in the composition of animal assemblages of the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divíšek, Jan; Zelený, David; Culek, Martin; Št'astný, Karel

2014-08-01

Studies that explore species-environment relationships at a broad scale are usually limited by the availability of sufficient habitat description, which is often too coarse to differentiate natural habitat patches. Therefore, it is not well understood how the distribution of natural habitats affects broad-scale patterns in the distribution of animal species. In this study, we evaluate the role of field-mapped natural habitats, land-cover types derived from remote sensing and climate on the composition of assemblages of five distinct animal groups, namely non-volant mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and butterflies native to the Czech Republic. First, we used variation partitioning based on redundancy analysis to evaluate the extent to which the environmental variables and their spatial structure might underlie the observed spatial patterns in the composition of animal assemblages. Second, we partitioned variations explained by climate, natural habitats and land-cover to compare their relative importance. Finally, we tested the independent effects of each variable in order to evaluate the significance of their contributions to the environmental model. Our results showed that spatial patterns in the composition of assemblages of almost all the considered animal groups may be ascribed mostly to variations in the environment. Although the shared effects of climatic variables, natural habitats and land-cover types explained the largest proportion of variation in each animal group, the variation explained purely by natural habitats was always higher than the variation explained purely by climate or land-cover. We conclude that most spatial variation in the composition of assemblages of almost all animal groups probably arises from biological processes operating within a spatially structured environment and suggest that natural habitats are important to explain observed patterns because they often perform better than habitat descriptions based on remote sensing. This underlines the value of using appropriate habitat data, for which high-resolution and large-area field-mapping projects are necessary.

Contextual mediation of perceptions in hauntings and poltergeist-like experiences.

PubMed

Lange, R; Houran, J; Harte, T M; Havens, R A

1996-06-01

The content of perceived apparitions, e.g., bereavement hallucinations, cannot be explained entirely in terms of electromagnetically induced neurochemical processes. It was shown that contextual variables influential in hallucinatory and hypnotic states also structured reported haunting experiences. As predicted, high congruency was found between the experiential content and the nature of the contextual variables. Further, the number of contextual variables involved in an experience was related to the type of experience and the state or arousal preceding the experience. Based on these findings we argue that a more complete explanation of haunting experiences should take into account both electromagnetically induced neurochemical processes and factors related to contextual mediation.

Using a respiratory navigator significantly reduces variability when quantifying left ventricular torsion with cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

PubMed

Hamlet, Sean M; Haggerty, Christopher M; Suever, Jonathan D; Wehner, Gregory J; Andres, Kristin N; Powell, David K; Charnigo, Richard J; Fornwalt, Brandon K

2017-03-01

Left ventricular (LV) torsion is an important indicator of cardiac function that is limited by high inter-test variability (50% of the mean value). We hypothesized that this high inter-test variability is partly due to inconsistent breath-hold positions during serial image acquisitions, which could be significantly improved by using a respiratory navigator for cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) based quantification of LV torsion. We assessed respiratory-related variability in measured LV torsion with two distinct experimental protocols. First, 17 volunteers were recruited for CMR with cine displacement encoding with stimulated echoes (DENSE) in which a respiratory navigator was used to measure and then enforce variability in end-expiratory position between all LV basal and apical acquisitions. From these data, we quantified the inter-test variability of torsion in the absence and presence of enforced end-expiratory position variability, which established an upper bound for the expected torsion variability. For the second experiment (in 20 new, healthy volunteers), 10 pairs of cine DENSE basal and apical images were each acquired from consecutive breath-holds and consecutive navigator-gated scans (with a single acceptance position). Inter-test variability of torsion was compared between the breath-hold and navigator-gated scans to quantify the variability due to natural breath-hold variation. To demonstrate the importance of these variability reductions, we quantified the reduction in sample size required to detect a clinically meaningful change in LV torsion with the use of a respiratory navigator. The mean torsion was 3.4 ± 0.2°/cm. From the first experiment, enforced variability in end-expiratory position translated to considerable variability in measured torsion (0.56 ± 0.34°/cm), whereas inter-test variability with consistent end-expiratory position was 57% lower (0.24 ± 0.16°/cm, p < 0.001). From the second experiment, natural respiratory variability from consecutive breath-holds translated to a variability in torsion of 0.24 ± 0.10°/cm, which was significantly higher than the variability from navigator-gated scans (0.18 ± 0.06°/cm, p = 0.02). By using a respiratory navigator with DENSE, theoretical sample sizes were reduced from 66 to 16 and 26 to 15 as calculated from the two experiments. A substantial portion (22-57%) of the inter-test variability of LV torsion can be reduced by using a respiratory navigator to ensure a consistent breath-hold position between image acquisitions.

Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

2017-12-01

To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input. Similarly, the relationship between N status and (relative) N leaching is highly variable due to confounding factors such as soil water fluxes, fire occurrence, and growing season length. Nevertheless, our results suggest that regions with very high N deposition rates are approaching a state of N saturation.

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malaeb, Z.A.; Kevin, Summers J.; Pugesek, B.H.

2000-01-01

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude -0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude -0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude -0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at -0.3769.

Evaluation of RANS and LES models for Natural Convection in High-Aspect-Ratio Parallel Plate Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fradeneck, Austen; Kimber, Mark

2017-11-01

The present study evaluates the effectiveness of current RANS and LES models in simulating natural convection in high-aspect ratio parallel plate channels. The geometry under consideration is based on a simplification of the coolant and bypass channels in the very high-temperature gas reactor (VHTR). Two thermal conditions are considered, asymmetric and symmetric wall heating with an applied heat flux to match Rayleigh numbers experienced in the VHTR during a loss of flow accident (LOFA). RANS models are compared to analogous high-fidelity LES simulations. Preliminary results demonstrate the efficacy of the low-Reynolds number k- ɛ formulations and their enhancement to the standard form and Reynolds stress transport model in terms of calculating the turbulence production due to buoyancy and overall mean flow variables.

Designed Natural Spaces: Informal Gardens Are Perceived to Be More Restorative than Formal Gardens

PubMed Central

Twedt, Elyssa; Rainey, Reuben M.; Proffitt, Dennis R.

2016-01-01

Experimental research shows that there are perceived and actual benefits to spending time in natural spaces compared to urban spaces, such as reduced cognitive fatigue, improved mood, and reduced stress. Whereas past research has focused primarily on distinguishing between distinct categories of spaces (i.e., nature vs. urban), less is known about variability in perceived restorative potential of environments within a particular category of outdoor spaces, such as gardens. Conceptually, gardens are often considered to be restorative spaces and to contain an abundance of natural elements, though there is great variability in how gardens are designed that might impact their restorative potential. One common practice for classifying gardens is along a spectrum ranging from “formal or geometric” to “informal or naturalistic,” which often corresponds to the degree to which built or natural elements are present, respectively. In the current study, we tested whether participants use design informality as a cue to predict perceived restorative potential of different gardens. Participants viewed a set of gardens and rated each on design informality, perceived restorative potential, naturalness, and visual appeal. Participants perceived informal gardens to have greater restorative potential than formal gardens. In addition, gardens that were more visually appealing and more natural-looking were perceived to have greater restorative potential than less visually appealing and less natural gardens. These perceptions and precedents are highly relevant for the design of gardens and other similar green spaces intended to provide relief from stress and to foster cognitive restoration. PMID:26903899

Designed Natural Spaces: Informal Gardens Are Perceived to Be More Restorative than Formal Gardens.

PubMed

Twedt, Elyssa; Rainey, Reuben M; Proffitt, Dennis R

2016-01-01

Experimental research shows that there are perceived and actual benefits to spending time in natural spaces compared to urban spaces, such as reduced cognitive fatigue, improved mood, and reduced stress. Whereas past research has focused primarily on distinguishing between distinct categories of spaces (i.e., nature vs. urban), less is known about variability in perceived restorative potential of environments within a particular category of outdoor spaces, such as gardens. Conceptually, gardens are often considered to be restorative spaces and to contain an abundance of natural elements, though there is great variability in how gardens are designed that might impact their restorative potential. One common practice for classifying gardens is along a spectrum ranging from "formal or geometric" to "informal or naturalistic," which often corresponds to the degree to which built or natural elements are present, respectively. In the current study, we tested whether participants use design informality as a cue to predict perceived restorative potential of different gardens. Participants viewed a set of gardens and rated each on design informality, perceived restorative potential, naturalness, and visual appeal. Participants perceived informal gardens to have greater restorative potential than formal gardens. In addition, gardens that were more visually appealing and more natural-looking were perceived to have greater restorative potential than less visually appealing and less natural gardens. These perceptions and precedents are highly relevant for the design of gardens and other similar green spaces intended to provide relief from stress and to foster cognitive restoration.

Gamma rays from blazars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavecchio, Fabrizio

2017-01-01

Blazars are high-energy engines providing us natural laboratories to study particle acceleration, relativistic plasma processes, magnetic field dynamics, black hole physics. Key informations are provided by observations at high-energy (in particular by Fermi/LAT) and very-high energy (by Cherenkov telescopes). I give a short account of the current status of the field, with particular emphasis on the theoretical challenges connected to the observed ultra-fast variability events and to the emission of flat spectrum radio quasars in the very high energy band.

Acclimatization of the Crustose Coralline Alga Porolithon onkodes to Variable pCO2

PubMed Central

Johnson, Maggie D.; Moriarty, Vincent W.; Carpenter, Robert C.

2014-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) has important implications for the persistence of coral reef ecosystems, due to potentially negative effects on biomineralization. Many coral reefs are dynamic with respect to carbonate chemistry, and experience fluctuations in pCO2 that exceed OA projections for the near future. To understand the influence of dynamic pCO2 on an important reef calcifier, we tested the response of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to oscillating pCO2. Individuals were exposed to ambient (400 µatm), high (660 µatm), or variable pCO2 (oscillating between 400/660 µatm) treatments for 14 days. To explore the potential for coralline acclimatization, we collected individuals from low and high pCO2 variability sites (upstream and downstream respectively) on a back reef characterized by unidirectional water flow in Moorea, French Polynesia. We quantified the effects of treatment on algal calcification by measuring the change in buoyant weight, and on algal metabolism by conducting sealed incubations to measure rates of photosynthesis and respiration. Net photosynthesis was higher in the ambient treatment than the variable treatment, regardless of habitat origin, and there was no effect on respiration or gross photosynthesis. Exposure to high pCO2 decreased P. onkodes calcification by >70%, regardless of the original habitat. In the variable treatment, corallines from the high variability habitat calcified 42% more than corallines from the low variability habitat. The significance of the original habitat for the coralline calcification response to variable, high pCO2 indicates that individuals existing in dynamic pCO2 habitats may be acclimatized to OA within the scope of in situ variability. These results highlight the importance of accounting for natural pCO2 variability in OA manipulations, and provide insight into the potential for plasticity in habitat and species-specific responses to changing ocean chemistry. PMID:24505305

Sometimes processes don't matter: the general effect of short term climate variability on erosional systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

2017-04-01

Climatic forcing undoubtedly plays an important role in shaping the Earth's surface. However, precisely how climate affects erosion rates, landscape morphology and the sedimentary record is highly debated. Recently there has been a focus on the influence of short-term variability in rainfall and river discharge on the relationship between climate and erosion rates. Here, we present a simple probabilistic argument, backed by modelling, that demonstrates that the way the Earth's surface responds to short-term climatic forcing variability is primarily determined by the existence and magnitude of erosional thresholds. We find that it is the ratio between the threshold magnitude and the mean magnitude of climatic forcing that determines whether variability matters or not and in which way. This is a fundamental result that applies regardless of the nature of the erosional process. This means, for example, that we can understand the role that discharge variability plays in determining fluvial erosion efficiency despite doubts about the processes involved in fluvial erosion. We can use this finding to reproduce the main conclusions of previous studies on the role of discharge variability in determining long-term fluvial erosion efficiency. Many aspects of the landscape known to influence discharge variability are affected by human activity, such as land use and river damming. Another important control on discharge variability, rainfall intensity, is also expected to increase with warmer temperatures. Among many other implications, our findings help provide a general framework to understand and predict the response of the Earth's surface to changes in mean and variability of rainfall and river discharge associated with the anthropogenic activity. In addition, the process independent nature of our findings suggest that previous work on river discharge variability and erosion thresholds can be applied to other erosional systems.

Connecting Groundwater, Crop Price, and Crop Production Variability in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollack, A.; Lobell, D. B.; Jain, M.

2015-12-01

Farmers in India rely on groundwater resources for irrigation and production of staple crops that provide over half of the calories consumed domestically each year. While this has been a productive strategy in increasing agricultural production and maintaining high yields, groundwater resources are depleting at a quicker rate than natural resources can replace. This issue gains relevance as climate variability concurrently adds to yearly fluctuations in farmer demand for irrigation each year, which can create high risk for farmers that depend on consistent yields, but do not have access to dwindling water resources. This study investigates variability in groundwater levels from 2005 to 2013 in relation to crop prices and production by analyzing district-level datasets made available through India's government. Through this analysis, we show the impact of groundwater variability on price variability, crop yield, and production during these years. By examining this nine-year timescale, we extend our analysis to forthcoming years to demonstrate the increasing importance of groundwater resources in irrigation, and suggest strategies to reduce the impact of groundwater shortages on crop production and prices.

Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century.

PubMed

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S J; Botzen, Wouter J W

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.

Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

PubMed Central

Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S. J.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.

2017-01-01

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed. PMID:28212384

Control approach development for variable recruitment artificial muscles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, Tyler E.; Chapman, Edward M.; Bryant, Matthew

2016-04-01

This study characterizes hybrid control approaches for the variable recruitment of fluidic artificial muscles with double acting (antagonistic) actuation. Fluidic artificial muscle actuators have been explored by researchers due to their natural compliance, high force-to-weight ratio, and low cost of fabrication. Previous studies have attempted to improve system efficiency of the actuators through variable recruitment, i.e. using discrete changes in the number of active actuators. While current variable recruitment research utilizes manual valve switching, this paper details the current development of an online variable recruitment control scheme. By continuously controlling applied pressure and discretely controlling the number of active actuators, operation in the lowest possible recruitment state is ensured and working fluid consumption is minimized. Results provide insight into switching control scheme effects on working fluids, fabrication material choices, actuator modeling, and controller development decisions.

Excised leaf method for high volume evaluation of sorghum germplasm for resistance against Colletotrichum sublineolum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Foliar phase of anthracnose, caused by Colletotrichum sublineolum is the most important leaf disease of sorghum. Due to the hyper-variable nature of the fungus, continuous evaluation of sorghum germplasm to identify new sources of resistance is imperative. Field and greenhouse evaluations for anth...

A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF FINE-ROOT BIOMASS FROM STAND DATA IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON

EPA Science Inventory

Because of the high spatial variability of fine roots in natural forest stands, accurate estimates of stand-level fine root biomass are difficult and expensive to obtain by standard coring methods. This study compares two different approaches that employ aboveground tree metrics...

A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE FINE ROOT BIOMASS FROM STAND DATA IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

EPA Science Inventory

High spatial variability of fine roots in natural forest stands makes accurate estimates of stand-level fine root biomass difficult and expensive to obtain by standard coring methods. This study uses aboveground tree metrics and spatial relationships to improve core-based estima...

Miniature spinning: an improved cotton research tools

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cotton is a natural fiber and is highly variable. Researchers need to evaluate cotton fiber properties to aid in the development of improved varieties and to ensure that changes in agronomic practices do not harm fiber quality or processing propensity. There is a need for fiber quality evaluation be...

Selecting AGN through Variability in SN Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutsia, K.; Leibundgut, B.; Trevese, D.; Vagnetti, F.

2010-07-01

Variability is a main property of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and it was adopted as a selection criterion using multi epoch surveys conducted for the detection of supernovae (SNe). We have used two SN datasets. First we selected the AXAF field of the STRESS project, centered in the Chandra Deep Field South where, besides the deep X-ray surveys also various optical catalogs exist. Our method yielded 132 variable AGN candidates. We then extended our method including the dataset of the ESSENCE project that has been active for 6 years, producing high quality light curves in the R and I bands. We obtained a sample of ˜4800 variable sources, down to R=22, in the whole 12 deg2 ESSENCE field. Among them, a subsample of ˜500 high priority AGN candidates was created using as secondary criterion the shape of the structure function. In a pilot spectroscopic run we have confirmed the AGN nature for nearly all of our candidates.

Effects of heavy metal pollution from mining and smelting on enchytraeid communities under different land management and soil conditions.

PubMed

Kapusta, Paweł; Sobczyk, Łukasz

2015-12-01

We studied enchytraeid communities in several habitats polluted by heavy metals from Zn-Pb mining and smelting activities. We sampled 41 sites that differed in the type of substratum (carbonate rock, metal-rich carbonate mining waste, siliceous sand) and land management (planting Scots pine, topsoiling, leaving to natural succession), and the distance from the smelter. Our main aims were to determine which pollution variables and natural factors most influenced enchytraeid species composition, richness and density, and examine what was the effect of planting Scots pine (reclamation) on enchytraeid communities. The soils harboured on average 1 to 5 enchytraeid species and 700 to 18,300 individuals per square metre, depending on the habitat. These figures were generally lower than those reported from unpolluted regions. Redundancy and multiple regression analyses confirmed the negative impact of heavy metal pollution on both enchytraeid community structure and abundance. Among pollution variables, the distance from the smelter best explained the variation in enchytraeid communities. The concentrations of heavy metals in the soil had less (e.g. total Pb and exchangeable Zn) or negligible (water-soluble forms) explanatory power. Natural soil properties were nearly irrelevant for enchytraeids, except for soil pH, which determined the species composition. Plant species richness was an important explanatory variable, as it positively affected most parameters of enchytraeid community. The results of two-by-two factorial comparisons (planting Scots pine vs. natural succession; carbonate mining waste vs. siliceous sand) suggest that reclamation can improve soil quality for biota, since it increased the diversity and abundance of enchytraeids; this effect was not dependent on the type of substratum. In conclusion, enchytraeids responded negatively to heavy metal pollution and their response was consistent and clear. These animals can be used as indicators of metal toxicity even in the presence of high natural variability, but it is recommended to study their species composition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges

2018-02-01

Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fast periodic stimulation (FPS): a highly effective approach in fMRI brain mapping.

PubMed

Gao, Xiaoqing; Gentile, Francesco; Rossion, Bruno

2018-06-01

Defining the neural basis of perceptual categorization in a rapidly changing natural environment with low-temporal resolution methods such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is challenging. Here, we present a novel fast periodic stimulation (FPS)-fMRI approach to define face-selective brain regions with natural images. Human observers are presented with a dynamic stream of widely variable natural object images alternating at a fast rate (6 images/s). Every 9 s, a short burst of variable face images contrasting with object images in pairs induces an objective face-selective neural response at 0.111 Hz. A model-free Fourier analysis achieves a twofold increase in signal-to-noise ratio compared to a conventional block-design approach with identical stimuli and scanning duration, allowing to derive a comprehensive map of face-selective areas in the ventral occipito-temporal cortex, including the anterior temporal lobe (ATL), in all individual brains. Critically, periodicity of the desired category contrast and random variability among widely diverse images effectively eliminates the contribution of low-level visual cues, and lead to the highest values (80-90%) of test-retest reliability in the spatial activation map yet reported in imaging higher level visual functions. FPS-fMRI opens a new avenue for understanding brain function with low-temporal resolution methods.

Natural aerosols explain seasonal and spatial patterns of Southern Ocean cloud albedo

PubMed Central

McCoy, Daniel T.; Burrows, Susannah M.; Wood, Robert; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Elliott, Scott M.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Phillip J.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2015-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols, suspended solid and liquid particles, act as nucleation sites for cloud drop formation, affecting clouds and cloud properties—ultimately influencing the cloud dynamics, lifetime, water path, and areal extent that determine the reflectivity (albedo) of clouds. The concentration Nd of droplets in clouds that influences planetary albedo is sensitive to the availability of aerosol particles on which the droplets form. Natural aerosol concentrations affect not only cloud properties themselves but also modulate the sensitivity of clouds to changes in anthropogenic aerosols. It is shown that modeled natural aerosols, principally marine biogenic primary and secondary aerosol sources, explain more than half of the spatiotemporal variability in satellite-observed Nd. Enhanced Nd is spatially correlated with regions of high chlorophyll a, and the spatiotemporal variability in Nd is found to be driven primarily by high concentrations of sulfate aerosol at lower Southern Ocean latitudes (35o to 45oS) and by organic matter in sea spray aerosol at higher latitudes (45o to 55oS). Biogenic sources are estimated to increase the summertime mean reflected solar radiation in excess of 10 W m–2 over parts of the Southern Ocean, which is comparable to the annual mean increases expected from anthropogenic aerosols over heavily polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:26601216

Natural aerosols explain seasonal and spatial patterns of Southern Ocean cloud albedo.

PubMed

McCoy, Daniel T; Burrows, Susannah M; Wood, Robert; Grosvenor, Daniel P; Elliott, Scott M; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Phillip J; Hartmann, Dennis L

2015-07-01

Atmospheric aerosols, suspended solid and liquid particles, act as nucleation sites for cloud drop formation, affecting clouds and cloud properties-ultimately influencing the cloud dynamics, lifetime, water path, and areal extent that determine the reflectivity (albedo) of clouds. The concentration N d of droplets in clouds that influences planetary albedo is sensitive to the availability of aerosol particles on which the droplets form. Natural aerosol concentrations affect not only cloud properties themselves but also modulate the sensitivity of clouds to changes in anthropogenic aerosols. It is shown that modeled natural aerosols, principally marine biogenic primary and secondary aerosol sources, explain more than half of the spatiotemporal variability in satellite-observed N d. Enhanced N d is spatially correlated with regions of high chlorophyll a, and the spatiotemporal variability in N d is found to be driven primarily by high concentrations of sulfate aerosol at lower Southern Ocean latitudes (35(o) to 45(o)S) and by organic matter in sea spray aerosol at higher latitudes (45(o) to 55(o)S). Biogenic sources are estimated to increase the summertime mean reflected solar radiation in excess of 10 W m(-2) over parts of the Southern Ocean, which is comparable to the annual mean increases expected from anthropogenic aerosols over heavily polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

The natural neighbor series manuals and source codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Dave

1999-05-01

This software series is concerned with reconstruction of spatial functions by interpolating a set of discrete observations having two or three independent variables. There are three components in this series: (1) nngridr: an implementation of natural neighbor interpolation, 1994, (2) modemap: an implementation of natural neighbor interpolation on the sphere, 1998 and (3) orebody: an implementation of natural neighbor isosurface generation (publication incomplete). Interpolation is important to geologists because it can offer graphical insights into significant geological structure and behavior, which, although inherent in the data, may not be otherwise apparent. It also is the first step in numerical integration, which provides a primary avenue to detailed quantification of the observed spatial function. Interpolation is implemented by selecting a surface-generating rule that controls the form of a `bridge' built across the interstices between adjacent observations. The cataloging and classification of the many such rules that have been reported is a subject in itself ( Watson, 1992), and the merits of various approaches have been debated at length. However, for practical purposes, interpolation methods are usually judged on how satisfactorily they handle problematic data sets. Sparse scattered data or traverse data, especially if the functional values are highly variable, generally tests interpolation methods most severely; but one method, natural neighbor interpolation, usually does produce preferable results for such data.

Affinity Crystallography: A New Approach to Extracting High-Affinity Enzyme Inhibitors from Natural Extracts.

PubMed

Aguda, Adeleke H; Lavallee, Vincent; Cheng, Ping; Bott, Tina M; Meimetis, Labros G; Law, Simon; Nguyen, Nham T; Williams, David E; Kaleta, Jadwiga; Villanueva, Ivan; Davies, Julian; Andersen, Raymond J; Brayer, Gary D; Brömme, Dieter

2016-08-26

Natural products are an important source of novel drug scaffolds. The highly variable and unpredictable timelines associated with isolating novel compounds and elucidating their structures have led to the demise of exploring natural product extract libraries in drug discovery programs. Here we introduce affinity crystallography as a new methodology that significantly shortens the time of the hit to active structure cycle in bioactive natural product discovery research. This affinity crystallography approach is illustrated by using semipure fractions of an actinomycetes culture extract to isolate and identify a cathepsin K inhibitor and to compare the outcome with the traditional assay-guided purification/structural analysis approach. The traditional approach resulted in the identification of the known inhibitor antipain (1) and its new but lower potency dehydration product 2, while the affinity crystallography approach led to the identification of a new high-affinity inhibitor named lichostatinal (3). The structure and potency of lichostatinal (3) was verified by total synthesis and kinetic characterization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of isolating and characterizing a potent enzyme inhibitor from a partially purified crude natural product extract using a protein crystallographic approach.

Controls on the spatial variability of key soil properties: comparing field data with a mechanistic soilscape evolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanwalleghem, T.; Román, A.; Giraldez, J. V.

2016-12-01

There is a need for better understanding the processes influencing soil formation and the resulting distribution of soil properties. Soil properties can exhibit strong spatial variation, even at the small catchment scale. Especially soil carbon pools in semi-arid, mountainous areas are highly uncertain because bulk density and stoniness are very heterogeneous and rarely measured explicitly. In this study, we explore the spatial variability in key soil properties (soil carbon stocks, stoniness, bulk density and soil depth) as a function of processes shaping the critical zone (weathering, erosion, soil water fluxes and vegetation patterns). We also compare the potential of a geostatistical versus a mechanistic soil formation model (MILESD) for predicting these key soil properties. Soil core samples were collected from 67 locations at 6 depths. Total soil organic carbon stocks were 4.38 kg m-2. Solar radiation proved to be the key variable controlling soil carbon distribution. Stone content was mostly controlled by slope, indicating the importance of erosion. Spatial distribution of bulk density was found to be highly random. Finally, total carbon stocks were predicted using a random forest model whose main covariates were solar radiation and NDVI. The model predicts carbon stocks that are double as high on north versus south-facing slopes. However, validation showed that these covariates only explained 25% of the variation in the dataset. Apparently, present-day landscape and vegetation properties are not sufficient to fully explain variability in the soil carbon stocks in this complex terrain under natural vegetation. This is attributed to a high spatial variability in bulk density and stoniness, key variables controlling carbon stocks. Similar results were obtained with the mechanistic soil formation model MILESD, suggesting that more complex models might be needed to further explore this high spatial variability.

Discrete and continuous variables for measurement-device-independent quantum cryptography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Feihu; Curty, Marcos; Qi, Bing

In a recent Article in Nature Photonics, Pirandola et al.1 claim that the achievable secret key rates of discrete-variable (DV) measurementdevice- independent (MDI) quantum key distribution (QKD) (refs 2,3) are “typically very low, unsuitable for the demands of a metropolitan network” and introduce a continuous-variable (CV) MDI QKD protocol capable of providing key rates which, they claim, are “three orders of magnitude higher” than those of DV MDI QKD. We believe, however, that the claims regarding low key rates of DV MDI QKD made by Pirandola et al.1 are too pessimistic. Here in this paper, we show that the secretmore » key rate of DV MDI QKD with commercially available high-efficiency single-photon detectors (SPDs) (for example, see http://www.photonspot.com/detectors and http://www.singlequantum.com) and good system alignment is typically rather high and thus highly suitable for not only long-distance communication but also metropolitan networks.« less

Discrete and continuous variables for measurement-device-independent quantum cryptography

DOE PAGES

Xu, Feihu; Curty, Marcos; Qi, Bing; ...

2015-11-16

In a recent Article in Nature Photonics, Pirandola et al.1 claim that the achievable secret key rates of discrete-variable (DV) measurementdevice- independent (MDI) quantum key distribution (QKD) (refs 2,3) are “typically very low, unsuitable for the demands of a metropolitan network” and introduce a continuous-variable (CV) MDI QKD protocol capable of providing key rates which, they claim, are “three orders of magnitude higher” than those of DV MDI QKD. We believe, however, that the claims regarding low key rates of DV MDI QKD made by Pirandola et al.1 are too pessimistic. Here in this paper, we show that the secretmore » key rate of DV MDI QKD with commercially available high-efficiency single-photon detectors (SPDs) (for example, see http://www.photonspot.com/detectors and http://www.singlequantum.com) and good system alignment is typically rather high and thus highly suitable for not only long-distance communication but also metropolitan networks.« less

Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Mark Hanley

The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

2015-09-01

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicatemore » technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.« less

Biodiversity of suprabenthic peracarid assemblages from the Blanes Canyon region (NW Mediterranean Sea) in relation to natural disturbance and trawling pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Mariana; Frutos, Inmaculada; Company, Joan B.; Martin, Daniel; Romano, Chiara; Cunha, Marina R.

2017-03-01

Blanes Canyon and its adjacent margin are important fishery areas (mainly by bottom trawling) located in a highly energetic oceanographic setting in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Here we assess the spatial and temporal variability in abundance, diversity and community structure of the suprabenthic peracarid assemblages in this region and examine this variability in relation to the natural and anthropogenic (trawling fisheries) disturbance regimes. The sampling was conducted between March 2003 and May 2004 in three main fishing grounds, the canyon head (average depth: 490 m), the canyon wall (average depth: 550 m) and the eastern adjacent slope (average depth: 820 m), as well as in two non-exploited areas in the western (at 900 m depth) and eastern (at 1500 m depth) slope near the canyon mouth. A total of 138 species were identified, with amphipods being the most speciose and abundant group, followed by mysids in terms of abundance. Our results show high spatial and temporal variability in suprabenthic assemblages. Densities were higher in the canyon head and western slope, which appear to be the preferential routes for water masses and particle fluxes in months of flood events, and other energetic processes. In the canyon head, where periodic erosion processes are more active, low diversity, high dominance and higher turnover (β-diversity) were observed, apparently coupled with significant temporal fluctuations in the densities of the highly motile component of suprabenthos (mysids, predatory and scavenging amphipods). In the sedimentary more stable eastern slope, high diversity values were observed, accompanied by a higher relative contribution of the less motile groups (i.e. amphipods, most isopods, cumaceans). These groups have a closer interaction with the sediment where they exploit different food sources and are more susceptible to physical disturbance. Temporal variability in their diversity may be related to changes in food quality rather than quantity. In the canyon wall, temporal fluctuations in diversity indices were only revealed in relation to the overall higher and more continued fishing pressure observed in the canyon wall fishing ground (Cara Norte/Sot site). Here, species richness and abundance declined with increasing fishing pressure but the lowest trophic and taxonomic diversities were observed under intermediate levels of disturbance. These findings underline (i) the differences between relatively low and highly motile taxa in terms of response to disturbance events; (ii) the differences between assemblages subjected to different levels of natural disturbance and trawling pressure, which modify the common bathymetric patterns of abundance and diversity often described from continental margins.

HIGHLY VARIABLE YOUNG MASSIVE STARS IN ATLASGAL CLUMPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, M. S. N.; Contreras Peña, C.; Lucas, P. W.

High-amplitude variability in young stellar objects (YSOs) is usually associated with episodic accretion events. It has not been observed so far in massive YSOs. Here, the high-amplitude variable star sample of Contreras Peña et al. has been used to search for highly variable (Δ K  ≥ 1 mag) sources coinciding with dense clumps mapped using the 850  μ m continuum emission by the ATLASGAL survey. A total of 18 variable sources are centered on the submillimeter clump peaks and coincide (<1″) with a 24  μ m point or compact (<10″) source. Of these 18 sources, 13 can be fit by YSOmore » models. The 13 variable YSOs (VYSOs) have luminosities of ∼10{sup 3} L {sub ⊙}, an average mass of 8  M {sub ⊙}, and a range of ages up to 10{sup 6} yr. A total of 11 of these 13 VYSOs are located in the midst of infrared dark clouds. Nine of the 13 sources have Δ K  > 2 mag, significantly higher compared to the mean variability of the entire VVV sample. The light curves of these objects sampled between 2010 and 2015 display rising, declining, or quasi-periodic behavior but no clear periodicity. Light-curve analysis using the Plavchan method shows that the most prominent phased signals have periods of a few hundred days. The nature and timescale of variations found in 6.7 Ghz methanol maser emission in massive stars are similar to that of the VYSO light curves. We argue that the origin of the observed variability is episodic accretion. We suggest that the timescale of a few hundred days may represent the frequency at which a spiraling disk feeds dense gas to the young massive star.« less

Fulgurites: a rock magnetic study of mineralogical changes caused by lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begnini, G. S.; Tohver, E.; Schmieder, M.

2013-05-01

Fulgurites are natural glass samples produced by lightning strikes on rock or soil substrates. Instantaneous electrical discharges of 10-200 kA are typical, and the temperatures produced by lightning strikes exceed 1700C, the melting temperature of quartz. Paleomagnetic observations of lightning strikes typically include high intensity remanent magnetizations with highly-variable to random magnetic directions. Alternating field demagnetization is commonly used to remove the overprinting effects of Lightning Induced Remanent Magnetization (LIRM), indicating low coercivities of the magnetic carriers. We conducted a rock magnetic analysis of 15 specimens of natural fulgurite from South Africa including hysteresis and thermoremanent heating and cooling experiments using a Variable Field Translational Balance. The analysed specimens demonstrate two distinct ranges of Curie temperature: 440-600C and 770-778C, suggesting the presence of both iron oxides (likely Fe-rich magnetite) and a reduced iron alloy, likely kamacite. High temperature, highly reduced assemblages have been reported from petrological observations of fulgurites. Our rock magnetic observations of a metallic iron phase in the fulgurite samples from a terrestrial, surficial environment demonstrates a mineralogical resemblance to differentiated, iron-rich meteorites. We suggest that LIRMs in lightning-struck localities may include a chemical remagnetization associated with lightning-induced electrolysis or reduction of iron oxides.

Host specificity in biological control: insights from opportunistic pathogens

PubMed Central

Brodeur, Jacques

2012-01-01

Host/prey specificity is a significant concern in biological control. It influences the effectiveness of a natural enemy and the risks it might have on non-target organisms. Furthermore, narrow host specificity can be a limiting factor for the commercialization of natural enemies. Given the great diversity in taxonomy and mode of action of natural enemies, host specificity is a highly variable biological trait. This variability can be illustrated by opportunist fungi from the genus Lecanicillium, which have the capacity to exploit a wide range of hosts – from arthropod pests to fungi causing plant diseases – through different modes of action. Processes determining evolutionary trajectories in host specificity are closely linked to the modes of action of the natural enemy. This hypothesis is supported by advances in fungal genomics concerning the identity of genes and biological traits that are required for the evolution of life history strategies and host range. Despite the significance of specificity, we still need to develop a conceptual framework for better understanding of the relationship between specialization and successful biological control. The emergence of opportunistic pathogens and the development of ‘omic’ technologies offer new opportunities to investigate evolutionary principles and applications of the specificity of biocontrol agents. PMID:22949922

Why and How the Dairy Farmers of India are Vulnerable to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, A.; Gupta, J.

2017-12-01

Climate change and variability has added many atrociousness to India's food security challenges and the relationship between the asset components of farmers and climate change is always complex. In India, dairy farming substantially contributes towards the food security and always plays a supportive role to agriculture from the adversities. This study provides an overview of the socio economic and livelihood vulnerability of small holder dairy farmers of India to climate change and variability in three dimensions — sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity by combining 70 indicators and 12 major components. The livelihood and socio economic vulnerability of dairy farmers to climate change and variability is assessed at taluka level in India through detailed house hold level data of livelihoods of Western Ghats region of India collected by several levels of survey and through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques from selected farmers complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and other secondary data sources. The index score of dairy based livelihoods of Maharashtra was highly negative compared to other states with about 50 percent of farmers having high level of vulnerability with significant tradeoff between milk productivity and health, food, natural disasters-climate variability components. It finds that ensuring food security in the scenario of climate change will be a dreadful challenge and recommends identification of different potential options depending on local contexts at grass root level, the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, focusing on improving the adaptive capacity component, provision of livelihood security, preparing the extensionists of Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs)- universities to deal with the risks through extensive training programmes, long-term relief measures in the event of natural disasters, workshops on climate science and communication and promoting farmer centric extension system.

Effects of in-sewer processes: a stochastic model approach.

PubMed

Vollertsen, J; Nielsen, A H; Yang, W; Hvitved-Jacobsen, T

2005-01-01

Transformations of organic matter, nitrogen and sulfur in sewers can be simulated taking into account the relevant transformation and transport processes. One objective of such simulation is the assessment and management of hydrogen sulfide formation and corrosion. Sulfide is formed in the biofilms and sediments of the water phase, but corrosion occurs on the moist surfaces of the sewer gas phase. Consequently, both phases and the transport of volatile substances between these phases must be included. Furthermore, wastewater composition and transformations in sewers are complex and subject to high, natural variability. This paper presents the latest developments of the WATS model concept, allowing integrated aerobic, anoxic and anaerobic simulation of the water phase and of gas phase processes. The resulting model is complex and with high parameter variability. An example applying stochastic modeling shows how this complexity and variability can be taken into account.

On solitons: the biomolecular nonlinear transmission line models with constant and time variable coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raza, Nauman; Murtaza, Isma Ghulam; Sial, Sultan; Younis, Muhammad

2018-07-01

The article studies the dynamics of solitons in electrical microtubule ? model, which describes the propagation of waves in nonlinear dynamical system. Microtubules are not only a passive support of a cell but also they have highly dynamic structures involved in cell motility, intracellular transport and signaling. The underlying model has been considered with constant and variable coefficients of time function. The solitary wave ansatz has been applied successfully to extract these solitons. The corresponding integrability criteria, also known as constraint conditions, naturally emerge from the analysis of these models.

Comparative genomics of wild type yeast strains unveils important genome diversity

PubMed Central

Carreto, Laura; Eiriz, Maria F; Gomes, Ana C; Pereira, Patrícia M; Schuller, Dorit; Santos, Manuel AS

2008-01-01

Background Genome variability generates phenotypic heterogeneity and is of relevance for adaptation to environmental change, but the extent of such variability in natural populations is still poorly understood. For example, selected Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains are variable at the ploidy level, have gene amplifications, changes in chromosome copy number, and gross chromosomal rearrangements. This suggests that genome plasticity provides important genetic diversity upon which natural selection mechanisms can operate. Results In this study, we have used wild-type S. cerevisiae (yeast) strains to investigate genome variation in natural and artificial environments. We have used comparative genome hybridization on array (aCGH) to characterize the genome variability of 16 yeast strains, of laboratory and commercial origin, isolated from vineyards and wine cellars, and from opportunistic human infections. Interestingly, sub-telomeric instability was associated with the clinical phenotype, while Ty element insertion regions determined genomic differences of natural wine fermentation strains. Copy number depletion of ASP3 and YRF1 genes was found in all wild-type strains. Other gene families involved in transmembrane transport, sugar and alcohol metabolism or drug resistance had copy number changes, which also distinguished wine from clinical isolates. Conclusion We have isolated and genotyped more than 1000 yeast strains from natural environments and carried out an aCGH analysis of 16 strains representative of distinct genotype clusters. Important genomic variability was identified between these strains, in particular in sub-telomeric regions and in Ty-element insertion sites, suggesting that this type of genome variability is the main source of genetic diversity in natural populations of yeast. The data highlights the usefulness of yeast as a model system to unravel intraspecific natural genome diversity and to elucidate how natural selection shapes the yeast genome. PMID:18983662

Segmenting words from natural speech: subsegmental variation in segmental cues.

PubMed

Rytting, C Anton; Brew, Chris; Fosler-Lussier, Eric

2010-06-01

Most computational models of word segmentation are trained and tested on transcripts of speech, rather than the speech itself, and assume that speech is converted into a sequence of symbols prior to word segmentation. We present a way of representing speech corpora that avoids this assumption, and preserves acoustic variation present in speech. We use this new representation to re-evaluate a key computational model of word segmentation. One finding is that high levels of phonetic variability degrade the model's performance. While robustness to phonetic variability may be intrinsically valuable, this finding needs to be complemented by parallel studies of the actual abilities of children to segment phonetically variable speech.

The influence of meteorological variables on CO2 and CH4 trends recorded at a semi-natural station.

PubMed

Pérez, Isidro A; Sánchez, M Luisa; García, M Ángeles; Pardo, Nuria; Fernández-Duque, Beatriz

2018-03-01

CO 2 and CH 4 evolution is usually linked with sources, sinks and their changes. However, this study highlights the role of meteorological variables. It aims to quantify their contribution to the trend of these greenhouse gases and to determine which contribute most. Six years of measurements at a semi-natural site in northern Spain were considered. Three sections are established: the first focuses on monthly deciles, the second explores the relationship between pairs of meteorological variables, and the third investigates the relationship between meteorological variables and changes in CO 2 and CH 4 . In the first section, monthly outliers were more marked for CO 2 than for CH 4 . The evolution of monthly deciles was fitted to three simple expressions, linear, quadratic and exponential. The linear and exponential are similar, whereas the quadratic evolution is the most flexible since it provided a variable rate of concentration change and a better fit. With this last evolution, a decrease in the change rate was observed for low CO 2 deciles, whereas an increasing change rate prevailed for the rest and was more accentuated for CH 4 . In the second section, meteorological variables were provided by a trajectory model. Backward trajectories from 1-day prior to reaching the measurement site were used to calculate distance and direction averages as well as the recirculation factor. Terciles of these variables were determined in order to establish three intervals with low, medium and high values. These intervals were used to classify the variables following their interval widths and skewnesses. The best correlation between pairs of meteorological variables was observed for the average distance, in particular with horizontal wind speed. Sinusoidal relationships with the average direction were obtained for average distance and for vertical wind speed. Finally, in the third section, the quadratic evolution was considered in each interval of all the meteorological variables. As regards the main result, the greatest increases were obtained for high potential temperature for both gases followed by low and medium boundary layer height for CO 2 and CH 4 , respectively. Combining both meteorological variables provided increases of 22 ± 9 and 0.070 ± 0.019 ppm for CO 2 and CH 4 , respectively, although the number of observations affected is small, around 7%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

Variable Selection through Correlation Sifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jim C.; Jojic, Nebojsa

Many applications of computational biology require a variable selection procedure to sift through a large number of input variables and select some smaller number that influence a target variable of interest. For example, in virology, only some small number of viral protein fragments influence the nature of the immune response during viral infection. Due to the large number of variables to be considered, a brute-force search for the subset of variables is in general intractable. To approximate this, methods based on ℓ1-regularized linear regression have been proposed and have been found to be particularly successful. It is well understood however that such methods fail to choose the correct subset of variables if these are highly correlated with other "decoy" variables. We present a method for sifting through sets of highly correlated variables which leads to higher accuracy in selecting the correct variables. The main innovation is a filtering step that reduces correlations among variables to be selected, making the ℓ1-regularization effective for datasets on which many methods for variable selection fail. The filtering step changes both the values of the predictor variables and output values by projections onto components obtained through a computationally-inexpensive principal components analysis. In this paper we demonstrate the usefulness of our method on synthetic datasets and on novel applications in virology. These include HIV viral load analysis based on patients' HIV sequences and immune types, as well as the analysis of seasonal variation in influenza death rates based on the regions of the influenza genome that undergo diversifying selection in the previous season.

Tumor-specific frequencies and ocular melanoma.

PubMed

Milham, Samuel; Stetzer, David

2017-01-01

Specific kilohertz frequencies in the environment from variable frequency drives on electric motors at a liquid natural gas compressor and storage station on a natural gas pipeline seem to be associated with the development of a very rare cancer, ocular melanoma, at a high school and in individuals living or working in a neighborhood near the plant. Primary neutral-to-earth oscilloscope voltage waveforms and spectra measured near the high school were nearly identical to the ground voltage 2.3 miles away at the gas pipeline. Peak frequencies of 7440 and 19,980 Hz were found at both places. The electric utility practice of using the earth as a conduit for return currents facilitated this exposure.

Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: A broad perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Savage, Melissa; Falk, Donald A.; Suckling, Kieran F.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Schulke, Todd; Stacey, Peter B.; Morgan, Penelope; Hoffman, Martos; Klingel, Jon T.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to promote a broad and flexible perspective on ecological restoration of Southwestern (U.S.) ponderosa pine forests. Ponderosa pine forests in the region have been radically altered by Euro-American land uses, including livestock grazing, fire suppression, and logging. Dense thickets of young trees now abound, old-growth and biodiversity have declined, and human and ecological communities are increasingly vulnerable to destructive crown fires. A consensus has emerged that it is urgent to restore more natural conditions to these forests. Efforts to restore Southwestern forests will require extensive projects employing varying combinations of young-tree thinning and reintroduction of low-intensity fires. Treatments must be flexible enough to recognize and accommodate: high levels of natural heterogeneity; dynamic ecosystems; wildlife and other biodiversity considerations; scientific uncertainty; and the challenges of on-the-ground implementation. Ecological restoration should reset ecosystem trends toward an envelope of “natural variability,” including the reestablishment of natural processes. Reconstructed historic reference conditions are best used as general guides rather than rigid restoration prescriptions. In the long term, the best way to align forest conditions to track ongoing climate changes is to restore fire, which naturally correlates with current climate. Some stands need substantial structural manipulation (thinning) before fire can safely be reintroduced. In other areas, such as large wilderness and roadless areas, fire alone may suffice as the main tool of ecological restoration, recreating the natural interaction of structure and process. Impatience, overreaction to crown fire risks, extractive economics, or hubris could lead to widespread application of highly intrusive treatments that may further damage forest ecosystems. Investments in research and monitoring of restoration treatments are essential to refine restoration methods. We support the development and implementation of a diverse range of scientifically viable restoration approaches in these forests, suggest principles for ecologically sound restoration that immediately reduce crown fire risk and incrementally return natural variability and resilience to Southwestern forests, and present ecological perspectives on several forest restoration approaches.

Systematic Studies of Modified Vocalization: Speech Production Changes During a Variation of Metronomic Speech in Persons Who Do and Do Not Stutter

PubMed Central

Davidow, Jason H.; Bothe, Anne K.; Ye, Jun

2011-01-01

The most common way to induce fluency using rhythm requires persons who stutter to speak one syllable or one word to each beat of a metronome, but stuttering can also be eliminated when the stimulus is of a particular duration (e.g., 1 s). The present study examined stuttering frequency, speech production changes, and speech naturalness during rhythmic speech that alternated 1 s of reading with 1 s of silence. A repeated-measures design was used to compare data obtained during a control reading condition and during rhythmic reading in 10 persons who stutter (PWS) and 10 normally fluent controls. Ratings for speech naturalness were also gathered from naïve listeners. Results showed that mean vowel duration increased significantly, and the percentage of short phonated intervals decreased significantly, for both groups from the control to the experimental condition. Mean phonated interval length increased significantly for the fluent controls. Mean speech naturalness ratings during the experimental condition were approximately 7 on a 1–9 scale (1 = highly natural; 9 = highly unnatural), and these ratings were significantly correlated with vowel duration and phonated intervals for PWS. The findings indicate that PWS may be altering vocal fold vibration duration to obtain fluency during this rhythmic speech style, and that vocal fold vibration duration may have an impact on speech naturalness during rhythmic speech. Future investigations should examine speech production changes and speech naturalness during variations of this rhythmic condition. Educational Objectives The reader will be able to: (1) describe changes (from a control reading condition) in speech production variables when alternating between 1 s of reading and 1 s of silence, (2) describe which rhythmic conditions have been found to sound and feel the most natural, (3) describe methodological issues for studies about alterations in speech production variables during fluency-inducing conditions, and (4) describe which fluency-inducing conditions have been shown to involve a reduction in short phonated intervals. PMID:21664528

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Spatio-temporal variation in stream water chemistry in a tropical urban watershed

Treesearch

A. Ramirez; K.G. Rosas; A.E. Lugo; O.M. Ramos-Gonzalez

2014-01-01

Urban activities and related infrastructure alter the natural patterns of stream physical and chemical conditions. According to the Urban Stream Syndrome, streams draining urban landscapes are characterized by high concentrations of nutrients and ions, and might have elevated water temperatures and variable oxygen concentrations. Here, we report temporal and spatial...

Toward a Second Language Socialization Perspective: Issues in Study Abroad Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Chilin

2010-01-01

The last few decades have seen a proliferation of research on study abroad (SA). A review of SA research literature shows general inconsistencies and inconclusiveness on certain issues, particularly on SA outcomes and their factors. This article discusses such inconsistencies in terms of the highly variable contexts and vastly unstable nature of…

Measuring suspended sediment in small mountain streams

Treesearch

Robert B. Thomas

1985-01-01

Measuring suspended sediment concentration in streams provides a way of monitoring the effects of forest management activities on water quality. Collecting data on suspended sediment is an act of sampling. The nature of the delivery process and the circumstances under which data are collected combine to produce highly variable results that are difficult to analyze and...

Integrated landscape/hydrologic modeling tool for semiarid watersheds

Treesearch

Mariano Hernandez; Scott N. Miller

2000-01-01

An integrated hydrologic modeling/watershed assessment tool is being developed to aid in determining the susceptibility of semiarid landscapes to natural and human-induced changes across a range of scales. Watershed processes are by definition spatially distributed and are highly variable through time, and this approach is designed to account for their spatial and...

IN SITU HIGH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION ANALYSIS OF ELEMENTAL MERCURY IN NATURAL WATER (R827915)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

Volatilization of elemental Hg represents an important Hg flux for many aquatic systems. In order to model this flux accurately, it is necessary to measure elemental Hg concentrations in air and water, as well as meteorological variables. Up to now, temporal r...

Correlating Science Center Use with Adult Science Literacy: An International, Cross-Institutional Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falk, John H.; Dierking, Lynn D.; Swanger, Lisa Prendergast; Staus, Nancy; Back, Mariana; Barriault, Chantal; Catalao, Carlos; Chambers, Cindy; Chew, Ling-Ling; Dahl, Svein A.; Falla, Sigrid; Gorecki, Bern; Lau, Tak-Cheung; Lloyd, Andy; Martin, Jennifer; Santer, Jennifer; Singer, Silvia; Solli, Anne; Trepanier, Gabrielle; Tyystjarvi, Kati; Verheyden, Patricia

2016-01-01

This international investigation was designed to determine if, and under what circumstances experiences at science centers, significantly correlated with a range of adult general public science and technology literacy measures. Given the complex and cumulative nature of science and technology learning, and the highly variable and free-choice…

Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Pilcher, Darren J.

2017-01-01

Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.

The influence of spatially and temporally varying oceanographic conditions on meroplanktonic metapopulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botsford, L. W.; Moloney, C. L.; Hastings, A.; Largier, J. L.; Powell, T. M.; Higgins, K.; Quinn, J. F.

We synthesize the results of several modelling studies that address the influence of variability in larval transport and survival on the dynamics of marine metapopulations distributed along a coast. Two important benthic invertebrates in the California Current System (CCS), the Dungeness crab and the red sea urchin, are used as examples of the way in which physical oceanographic conditions can influence stability, synchrony and persistence of meroplanktonic metapopulations. We first explore population dynamics of subpopulations and metapopulations. Even without environmental forcing, isolated local subpopulations with density-dependence can vary on time scales roughly twice the generation time at high adult survival, shifting to annual time scales at low survivals. The high frequency behavior is not seen in models of the Dungeness crab, because of their high adult survival rates. Metapopulations with density-dependent recruitment and deterministic larval dispersal fluctuate in an asynchronous fashion. Along the coast, abundance varies on spatial scales which increase with dispersal distance. Coastwide, synchronous, random environmental variability tends to synchronize these metapopulations. Climate change could cause a long-term increase or decrease in mean larval survival, which in this model leads to greater synchrony or extinction respectively. Spatially managed metapopulations of red sea urchins go extinct when distances between harvest refugia become greater than the scale of larval dispersal. All assessments of population dynamics indicate that metapopulation behavior in general dependes critically on the temporal and spatial nature of larval dispersal, which is largely determined by physical oceanographic conditions. We therfore explore physical influences on larval dispersal patterns. Observed trends in temperature and salinity applied to laboratory-determined responses indicate that natural variability in temperature and salinity can lead to variability in larval development period on interannual (50%), intra-annual (20%) and latitudinal (200%) scales. Variability in development period significantly influences larval survival and, thus, net transport. Larval drifters that undertake diel vertical migration in a primitive equation model of coastal circulation (SPEM) demonstrate the importance of vertical migration in determining horizontal transport. Empirically derived estimates of the effects of wind forcing on larval transport of vertically migrating larvae (wind drift when near the surface and Ekman transport below the surface) match cross-shelf distributions in 4 years of existing larval data. We use a one-dimensional advection-diffusion model, which includes intra-annual timing of cross-shelf flows in the CCS, to explore the combined effects on settlement: (1) temperature- and salinity-dependent development and survival rates and (2) possible horizontal transport due to vertical migration of crab larvae. Natural variability in temperature, wind forcing, and the timing of the spring transition can cause the observed variability in recruitment. We conclude that understanding the dynamics of coastally distributed metapopulations in response to physically-induced variability in larval dispersal will be a critical step in assessing the effects of climate change on marine populations.

Natural versus anthropogenic subsidence of Venice

PubMed Central

Tosi, Luigi; Teatini, Pietro; Strozzi, Tazio

2013-01-01

We detected land displacements of Venice by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry using ERS and ENVISAT C-band and TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed X-band acquisitions over the periods 1992–2010 and 2008–2011, respectively. By reason of the larger observation period, the C-band sensors was used to quantify the long-term movements, i.e. the subsidence component primarily ascribed to natural processes. The high resolution X-band satellites reveal a high effectiveness to monitor short-time movements as those induced by human activities. Interpolation of the two datasets and removal of the C-band from the X-band map allows discriminating between the natural and anthropogenic components of the subsidence. A certain variability characterizes the natural subsidence (0.9 ± 0.7 mm/yr), mainly because of the heterogeneous nature and age of the lagoon subsoil. The 2008 displacements show that man interventions are responsible for movements ranging from −10 to 2 mm/yr. These displacements are generally local and distributed along the margins of the city islands. PMID:24067871

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Structure and genetic diversity of natural populations of Morus alba in the trans-Himalayan Ladakh region.

PubMed

Bajpai, Prabodh K; Warghat, Ashish R; Sharma, Ram Kumar; Yadav, Ashish; Thakur, Anil K; Srivastava, Ravi B; Stobdan, Tsering

2014-04-01

Sequence-related amplified polymorphism markers were used to assess the genetic structure in three natural populations of Morus alba from trans-Himalaya. Multilocation sampling was conducted across 14 collection sites. The overall genetic diversity estimates were high: percentage polymorphic loci 89.66%, Nei's gene diversity 0.2286, and Shannon's information index 0.2175. At a regional level, partitioning of variability assessed using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), revealed 80% variation within and 20% among collection sites. Pattern appeared in STRUCTURE, BARRIER, and AMOVA, clearly demonstrating gene flow between the Indus and Suru populations and a geographic barrier between the Indus-Suru and Nubra populations, which effectively hinders gene flow. The results showed significant genetic differentiation, population structure, high to restricted gene flow, and high genetic diversity. The assumption that samples collected from the three valleys represent three different populations does not hold true. The fragmentation present in trans-Himalaya was more natural and less anthropogenic.

Natural genetic variability reduces recalcitrance in poplar

DOE PAGES

Bhagia, Samarthya; Muchero, Wellington; Kumar, Rajeev; ...

2016-05-20

Here, lignin content and structure are known to affect recalcitrance of lignocellulosic biomass to chemical/biochemical conversion. Previously, we identified rare Populus trichocarpa natural variants with significantly reduced lignin content. Because reduced lignin content may lower recalcitrance, 18 rare variants along with 4 comparators, and BESC standard Populus was analyzed for composition of structural carbohydrates and lignin. Sugar yields from these plants were measured at 5 process conditions: one for just enzymatic hydrolysis without pretreatment and four via our combined high-throughput hot water pretreatment and co-hydrolysis (HTPH) technique.

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Advanced Analyses - Controlling for Natural Variability: SSD Plot Diagrams

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Methods for controlling natural variability, predicting environmental conditions from biological observations method, biological trait data, species sensitivity distributions, propensity scores, Advanced Analyses of Data Analysis references.

Assessing Hazard Vulnerability, Habitat Conservation, and Restoration for the Enhancement of Mainland China's Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajjad, Muhammad; Li, Yangfan; Tang, Zhenghong; Cao, Ling; Liu, Xiaoping

2018-03-01

Worldwide, humans are facing high risks from natural hazards, especially in coastal regions with high population densities. Rising sea levels due to global warming are making coastal communities' infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters. The present study aims to provide a coupling approach of vulnerability and resilience through restoration and conservation of lost or degraded coastal natural habitats to reclamation under different climate change scenarios. The integrated valuation of ecosystems and tradeoffs model is used to assess the current and future vulnerability of coastal communities. The model employed is based on seven different biogeophysical variables to calculate a natural hazard index and to highlight the criticality of the restoration of natural habitats. The results show that roughly 25% of the coastline and more than 5 million residents are in highly vulnerable coastal areas of mainland China, and these numbers are expected to double by 2100. Our study suggests that restoration and conservation in recently reclaimed areas have the potential to reduce this vulnerability by 45%. Hence, natural habitats have proved to be a great defense against coastal hazards and should be prioritized in coastal planning and development. The findings confirm that natural habitats are critical for coastal resilience and can act as a recovery force of coastal functionality loss. Therefore, we recommend that the Chinese government prioritizes restoration (where possible) and conservation of the remaining habitats for the sake of coastal resilience to prevent natural hazards from escalating into disasters.

Natural and management influences on freshwater inflows and salinity in the San Francisco Estuary at monthly to interannual scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah

2002-01-01

Understanding the processes controlling the physics, chemistry, and biology of the San Francisco Estuary and their relation to climate variability is complicated by the combined influence on freshwater inflows of natural variability and upstream management. To distinguish these influences, alterations of estuarine inflow due to major reservoirs and freshwater pumping in the watershed were inferred from available data. Effects on salinity were estimated by using reconstructed estuarine inflows corresponding to differing levels of impairment to drive a numerical salinity model. Both natural and management inflow and salinity signals show strong interannual variability. Management effects raise salinities during the wet season, with maximum influence in spring. While year‐to‐year variations in all signals are very large, natural interannual variability can greatly exceed the range of management effects on salinity in the estuary.

Stream primary producers relate positively to watershed natural gas measures in north-central Arkansas streams.

PubMed

Austin, Bradley J; Hardgrave, Natalia; Inlander, Ethan; Gallipeau, Cory; Entrekin, Sally; Evans-White, Michelle A

2015-10-01

Construction of unconventional natural gas (UNG) infrastructure (e.g., well pads, pipelines) is an increasingly common anthropogenic stressor that increases potential sediment erosion. Increased sediment inputs into nearby streams may decrease autotrophic processes through burial and scour, or sediment bound nutrients could have a positive effect through alleviating potential nutrient limitations. Ten streams with varying catchment UNG well densities (0-3.6 wells/km(2)) were sampled during winter and spring of 2010 and 2011 to examine relationships between landscape scale disturbances associated with UNG activity and stream periphyton [chlorophyll a (Chl a)] and gross primary production (GPP). Local scale variables including light availability and water column physicochemical variables were measured for each study site. Correlation analyses examined the relationships of autotrophic processes and local scale variables with the landscape scale variables percent pasture land use and UNG metrics (well density and well pad inverse flow path length). Both GPP and Chl a were primarily positively associated with the UNG activity metrics during most sample periods; however, neither landscape variables nor response variables correlated well with local scale factors. These positive correlations do not confirm causation, but they do suggest that it is possible that UNG development can alleviate one or more limiting factors on autotrophic production within these streams. A secondary manipulative study was used to examine the link between nutrient limitation and algal growth across a gradient of streams impacted by natural gas activity. Nitrogen limitation was common among minimally impacted stream reaches and was alleviated in streams with high UNG activity. These data provide evidence that UNG may stimulate the primary production of Fayetteville shale streams via alleviation of N-limitation. Restricting UNG activities from the riparian zone along with better enforcement of best management practices should help reduce these possible impacts of UNG activities on stream autotrophic processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gap formation and carbon cycling in the Brazilian Amazon: measurement using high-resolution optical remote sensing and studies in large forest plots

Treesearch

F. D. B. Espirito-Santo; M. M. Keller; E. Linder; R. C. Oliveira Junior; C. Pereira; C. G. Oliveira

2013-01-01

Background: The dynamics of gaps plays a role in the regimes of tree mortality, production of coarse woody debris (CWD) and the variability of light in the forest understory. Aims: To quantify the area affected by, and the carbon fluxes associated with, natural gap-phase disturbances in a tropical lowland evergreen rain forest by use of ground measurements and high-...

Social and cultural sustainability: criteria, indicators, verifier variables for measurement and maps for visualization to support planning.

PubMed

Axelsson, Robert; Angelstam, Per; Degerman, Erik; Teitelbaum, Sara; Andersson, Kjell; Elbakidze, Marine; Drotz, Marcus K

2013-03-01

Policies on economic use of natural resources require considerations to social and cultural values. In order to make those concrete in a planning context, this paper aims to interpret social and cultural criteria, identify indicators, match these with verifier variables and visualize them on maps. Indicators were selected from a review of scholarly work and natural resource policies, and then matched with verifier variables available for Sweden's 290 municipalities. Maps of the spatial distribution of four social and four cultural verifier variables were then produced. Consideration of social and cultural values in the studied natural resource use sectors was limited. The spatial distribution of the verifier variables exhibited a general divide between northwest and south Sweden, and regional rural and urban areas. We conclude that it is possible to identify indicators and match them with verifier variables to support inclusion of social and cultural values in planning.

Detection and sequence/structure mapping of biophysical constraints to protein variation in saturated mutational libraries and protein sequence alignments with a dedicated server.

PubMed

Abriata, Luciano A; Bovigny, Christophe; Dal Peraro, Matteo

2016-06-17

Protein variability can now be studied by measuring high-resolution tolerance-to-substitution maps and fitness landscapes in saturated mutational libraries. But these rich and expensive datasets are typically interpreted coarsely, restricting detailed analyses to positions of extremely high or low variability or dubbed important beforehand based on existing knowledge about active sites, interaction surfaces, (de)stabilizing mutations, etc. Our new webserver PsychoProt (freely available without registration at http://psychoprot.epfl.ch or at http://lucianoabriata.altervista.org/psychoprot/index.html ) helps to detect, quantify, and sequence/structure map the biophysical and biochemical traits that shape amino acid preferences throughout a protein as determined by deep-sequencing of saturated mutational libraries or from large alignments of naturally occurring variants. We exemplify how PsychoProt helps to (i) unveil protein structure-function relationships from experiments and from alignments that are consistent with structures according to coevolution analysis, (ii) recall global information about structural and functional features and identify hitherto unknown constraints to variation in alignments, and (iii) point at different sources of variation among related experimental datasets or between experimental and alignment-based data. Remarkably, metabolic costs of the amino acids pose strong constraints to variability at protein surfaces in nature but not in the laboratory. This and other differences call for caution when extrapolating results from in vitro experiments to natural scenarios in, for example, studies of protein evolution. We show through examples how PsychoProt can be a useful tool for the broad communities of structural biology and molecular evolution, particularly for studies about protein modeling, evolution and design.

Comparison of Bioclimatic, NDVI and Elevation variables in assessing extent of Commiphora wightii (Arnt.) Bhand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulloli, R. N.; Kumar, S.

2014-11-01

Commiphora wightii (Arnt.) Bhand., is an important medicinal plant of Indian Medicine System (IMS) since ancient time. It is used in different ailments of obesity, arthritis, rheumatism and high cholesterol. Due to overexploitation its natural populations declined to large extent. IUCN has put it under Data Deficient (DD) category due to lack of data on its extent of occurrence in nature. Hence, the study was carried out using MaxEnt distribution modelling algorithm to estimate its geographic distribution and to identify potential habitats for its reintroduction. For modelling employed 68 presence locality data, 19 bioclimatic variables, Normalize Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and elevation data. These were tested for multicollinearity and those variables having r-value less than 0.8 were selected for further analysis, which was carried out in two ways i) Bioclimatic variables and elevation; ii) NDVI and elevation. Area Under the Curve (AUC) in both analysis was above 0.9 for all variables, indicating very high accuracy of prediction. Variables governing distribution of C. wightii in the analysis using bioclimatic and elevation data set are precipitation seasonality (56.6 %), annual precipitation (16.4 %) and elevation (14.7 %). Extent of occurrence of C.wightii predicted by model closely matched in the districts of Jaisalmer and Barmer. In the second analysis elevation (48.3 %), NDVI of June (11.1 %) and August (11.2 %) contributed for NDVI and Elevation data set. NDVI of June corresponds to its leafing phase while NDVI of August to flowering phase. Area of its occurrence predicted for NDVI and elevation data set are Bikaner, Churu, Jhunjhunun some part of Jodhpur which are completely sandy, where C. wightii is totally absent. Extent of occurrence was also validated in ground survey. Potential areas for its reintroduction were identified as Jaisalmer and Barmer districts in Indian arid zone.

Spatiotemporal variability and contribution of different aerosol types to the Aerosol Optical Depth over the Eastern Mediterranean

PubMed Central

Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Alexandri, Georgia; Kourtidis, Konstantinos A.; Lelieveld, Jos; Zanis, Prodromos; Pöschl, Ulrich; Levy, Robert; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios

2018-01-01

This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS Terra (3/2000–12/2012) and Aqua (7/2002–12/2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sunphotometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium sized cities, industrial zones, and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities, and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is ~ 0.22 ± 0.19 with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in Central and Eastern Europe, and transport of dust from the Sahara Desert and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine mode natural aerosols account for ~ 51 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account ~ 40 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations. PMID:29755508

Spatiotemporal variability and contribution of different aerosol types to the aerosol optical depth over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Alexandri, Georgia; Kourtidis, Konstantinos A.; Lelieveld, Jos; Zanis, Prodromos; Pöschl, Ulrich; Levy, Robert; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios

2016-11-01

This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Terra (March 2000-December 2012) and Aqua (July 2002-December 2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sun photometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium-sized cities, industrial zones and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is ˜ 0.22 ± 0.19, with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in central and eastern Europe and transport of dust from the Sahara and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols account for ˜ 51, ˜ 34 and ˜ 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account ˜ 40, ˜ 34 and ˜ 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations.

Spatiotemporal Variability and Contribution of Different Aerosol Types to the Aerosol Optical Depth over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Alexandri, Georgia; Kourtidis, Konstantinos A.; Lelieveld, Jos; Zanis, Prodromos; Poeschl, Ulrich; Levy, Robert; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios

2016-01-01

This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Terra (March 2000-December 2012) and Aqua (July 2002-December 2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1deg × 0.1deg gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sun photometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium-sized cities, industrial zones and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD550) for the entire region is approx. 0.22 +/- 0.19, with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in central and eastern Europe and transport of dust from the Sahara and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD550. The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine-mode natural aerosols account for approx. 51, approx. 34 and approx. 15 % of the total AOD550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account approx. 40, approx. 34 and approx. 26 % of the total AOD550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations.

Spatiotemporal variability and contribution of different aerosol types to the Aerosol Optical Depth over the Eastern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Georgoulias, Aristeidis K; Alexandri, Georgia; Kourtidis, Konstantinos A; Lelieveld, Jos; Zanis, Prodromos; Pöschl, Ulrich; Levy, Robert; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios

2016-01-01

This study characterizes the spatiotemporal variability and relative contribution of different types of aerosols to the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) over the Eastern Mediterranean as derived from MODIS Terra (3/2000-12/2012) and Aqua (7/2002-12/2012) satellite instruments. For this purpose, a 0.1° × 0.1° gridded MODIS dataset was compiled and validated against sunphotometric observations from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The high spatial resolution and long temporal coverage of the dataset allows for the determination of local hot spots like megacities, medium sized cities, industrial zones, and power plant complexes, seasonal variabilities, and decadal averages. The average AOD at 550 nm (AOD 550 ) for the entire region is ~ 0.22 ± 0.19 with maximum values in summer and seasonal variabilities that can be attributed to precipitation, photochemical production of secondary organic aerosols, transport of pollution and smoke from biomass burning in Central and Eastern Europe, and transport of dust from the Sahara Desert and the Middle East. The MODIS data were analyzed together with data from other satellite sensors, reanalysis projects and a chemistry-aerosol-transport model using an optimized algorithm tailored for the region and capable of estimating the contribution of different aerosol types to the total AOD 550 . The spatial and temporal variability of anthropogenic, dust and fine mode natural aerosols over land and anthropogenic, dust and marine aerosols over the sea is examined. The relative contribution of the different aerosol types to the total AOD 550 exhibits a low/high seasonal variability over land/sea areas, respectively. Overall, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and fine mode natural aerosols account for ~ 51 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 15 % of the total AOD 550 over land, while, anthropogenic aerosols, dust and marine aerosols account ~ 40 %, ~ 34 % and ~ 26 % of the total AOD 550 over the sea, based on MODIS Terra and Aqua observations.

How does a newly encountered face become familiar? The effect of within-person variability on adults' and children's perception of identity.

PubMed

Baker, Kristen A; Laurence, Sarah; Mondloch, Catherine J

2017-04-01

Adults and children aged 6years and older easily recognize multiple images of a familiar face, but often perceive two images of an unfamiliar face as belonging to different identities. Here we examined the process by which a newly encountered face becomes familiar, defined as accurate recognition of multiple images that capture natural within-person variability in appearance. In Experiment 1 we examined whether exposure to within-person variability in appearance helps children learn a new face. Children aged 6-13years watched a 10-min video of a woman reading a story; she was filmed on a single day (low variability) or over three days, across which her appearance and filming conditions (e.g., camera, lighting) varied (high variability). After familiarization, participants sorted a set of images comprising novel images of the target identity intermixed with distractors. Compared to participants who received no familiarization, children showed evidence of learning only in the high-variability condition, in contrast to adults who showed evidence of learning in both the low- and high-variability conditions. Experiment 2 highlighted the efficiency with which adults learn a new face; their accuracy was comparable across training conditions despite variability in duration (1 vs. 10min) and type (video vs. static images) of training. Collectively, our findings show that exposure to variability leads to the formation of a robust representation of facial identity, consistent with perceptual learning in other domains (e.g., language), and that the development of face learning is protracted throughout childhood. We discuss possible underlying mechanisms. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Microbial ecology in the age of genomics and metagenomics: concepts, tools, and recent advances.

PubMed

Xu, Jianping

2006-06-01

Microbial ecology examines the diversity and activity of micro-organisms in Earth's biosphere. In the last 20 years, the application of genomics tools have revolutionized microbial ecological studies and drastically expanded our view on the previously underappreciated microbial world. This review first introduces the basic concepts in microbial ecology and the main genomics methods that have been used to examine natural microbial populations and communities. In the ensuing three specific sections, the applications of the genomics in microbial ecological research are highlighted. The first describes the widespread application of multilocus sequence typing and representational difference analysis in studying genetic variation within microbial species. Such investigations have identified that migration, horizontal gene transfer and recombination are common in natural microbial populations and that microbial strains can be highly variable in genome size and gene content. The second section highlights and summarizes the use of four specific genomics methods (phylogenetic analysis of ribosomal RNA, DNA-DNA re-association kinetics, metagenomics, and micro-arrays) in analysing the diversity and potential activity of microbial populations and communities from a variety of terrestrial and aquatic environments. Such analyses have identified many unexpected phylogenetic lineages in viruses, bacteria, archaea, and microbial eukaryotes. Functional analyses of environmental DNA also revealed highly prevalent, but previously unknown, metabolic processes in natural microbial communities. In the third section, the ecological implications of sequenced microbial genomes are briefly discussed. Comparative analyses of prokaryotic genomic sequences suggest the importance of ecology in determining microbial genome size and gene content. The significant variability in genome size and gene content among strains and species of prokaryotes indicate the highly fluid nature of prokaryotic genomes, a result consistent with those from multilocus sequence typing and representational difference analyses. The integration of various levels of ecological analyses coupled to the application and further development of high throughput technologies are accelerating the pace of discovery in microbial ecology.

Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat) and 500m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). A robust logistic-growth model of canopy cover was employed to determine phenological characteristics at each forest stand. The duel analyses revealed important findings: (a) local phenological gradients from microclimatic structures are highly influential in broad-scale phenological observations; (b) satellite observed phenology reflects observations of canopy growth from field studies; (c) phenological anomalies in urban areas which were previously attributed to urban heat may be a function of urban-specific land cover (i.e. green lawns); and (d) patterns of interannual variability in phenology at the regional scale have high spatial coherency and appear to be driven by broad-scale climatic change. Satellite-observed phenology may reflect temperatures during spring and provides a proxy of climate variability.

Community dynamics and ecosystem simplification in a high-CO2 ocean.

PubMed

Kroeker, Kristy J; Gambi, Maria Cristina; Micheli, Fiorenza

2013-07-30

Disturbances are natural features of ecosystems that promote variability in the community and ultimately maintain diversity. Although it is recognized that global change will affect environmental disturbance regimes, our understanding of the community dynamics governing ecosystem recovery and the maintenance of functional diversity in future scenarios is very limited. Here, we use one of the few ecosystems naturally exposed to future scenarios of environmental change to examine disturbance and recovery dynamics. We examine the recovery patterns of marine species from a physical disturbance across different acidification regimes caused by volcanic CO2 vents. Plots of shallow rocky reef were cleared of all species in areas of ambient, low, and extreme low pH that correspond to near-future and extreme scenarios for ocean acidification. Our results illustrate how acidification decreases the variability of communities, resulting in homogenization and reduced functional diversity at a landscape scale. Whereas the recovery trajectories in ambient pH were highly variable and resulted in a diverse range of assemblages, recovery was more predictable with acidification and consistently resulted in very similar algal-dominated assemblages. Furthermore, low pH zones had fewer signs of biological disturbance (primarily sea urchin grazing) and increased recovery rates of the dominant taxa (primarily fleshy algae). Together, our results highlight how environmental change can cause ecosystem simplification via environmentally mediated changes in community dynamics in the near future, with cascading impacts on functional diversity and ecosystem function.

Metabolic Capacity of Sinorhizobium (Ensifer) meliloti Strains as Determined by Phenotype MicroArray Analysis▿ †

PubMed Central

Biondi, Emanuele G.; Tatti, Enrico; Comparini, Diego; Giuntini, Elisa; Mocali, Stefano; Giovannetti, Luciana; Bazzicalupo, Marco; Mengoni, Alessio; Viti, Carlo

2009-01-01

Sinorhizobium meliloti is a soil bacterium that fixes atmospheric nitrogen in plant roots. The high genetic diversity of its natural populations has been the subject of extensive analysis. Recent genomic studies of several isolates revealed a high content of variable genes, suggesting a correspondingly large phenotypic differentiation among strains of S. meliloti. Here, using the Phenotype MicroArray (PM) system, hundreds of different growth conditions were tested in order to compare the metabolic capabilities of the laboratory reference strain Rm1021 with those of four natural S. meliloti isolates previously analyzed by comparative genomic hybridization (CGH). The results of PM analysis showed that most phenotypic differences involved carbon source utilization and tolerance to osmolytes and pH, while fewer differences were scored for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur source utilization. Only the variability of the tested strain in tolerance to sodium nitrite and ammonium sulfate of pH 8 was hypothesized to be associated with the genetic polymorphisms detected by CGH analysis. Colony and cell morphologies and the ability to nodulate Medicago truncatula plants were also compared, revealing further phenotypic diversity. Overall, our results suggest that the study of functional (phenotypic) variability of S. meliloti populations is an important and complementary step in the investigation of genetic polymorphism of rhizobia and may help to elucidate rhizobial evolutionary dynamics, including adaptation to diverse environments. PMID:19561177

Multilevel modeling and panel data analysis in educational research (Case study: National examination data senior high school in West Java)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulvia, Pepi; Kurnia, Anang; Soleh, Agus M.

2017-03-01

Individual and environment are a hierarchical structure consist of units grouped at different levels. Hierarchical data structures are analyzed based on several levels, with the lowest level nested in the highest level. This modeling is commonly call multilevel modeling. Multilevel modeling is widely used in education research, for example, the average score of National Examination (UN). While in Indonesia UN for high school student is divided into natural science and social science. The purpose of this research is to develop multilevel and panel data modeling using linear mixed model on educational data. The first step is data exploration and identification relationships between independent and dependent variable by checking correlation coefficient and variance inflation factor (VIF). Furthermore, we use a simple model approach with highest level of the hierarchy (level-2) is regency/city while school is the lowest of hierarchy (level-1). The best model was determined by comparing goodness-of-fit and checking assumption from residual plots and predictions for each model. Our finding that for natural science and social science, the regression with random effects of regency/city and fixed effects of the time i.e multilevel model has better performance than the linear mixed model in explaining the variability of the dependent variable, which is the average scores of UN.

Participation in a novel treatment component during residential substance use treatment is associated with improved outcome: a pilot study.

PubMed

Decker, Kathleen P; Peglow, Stephanie L; Samples, Carl R

2014-05-16

A person-centered substance use treatment component, the Natural Recovery Program, was developed. The Natural Recovery Program is comprised of small group therapy combined with pursuit of hobbies. This was a pilot study of the program and was not randomized. A retrospective record review of 643 veterans in an inpatient mental health recovery and rehabilitation program was analyzed to determine if participants of Natural Recovery had a different rate of treatment completion than those who elected to participate in the core program alone. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on: participation in the Natural Recovery Program; co-morbid psychiatric disorders; and legal, medical, and psychiatric issues. Participation in Natural Recovery was significantly associated with successful treatment completion when analyzed by univariate analysis (p = 0.01). Other significant variables associated with successful completion included: no co-morbid psychiatric diagnosis, fewer prior suicide attempts, and no homelessness prior to admission. Binary logistic regression demonstrated that participation in Natural Recovery was associated with improved treatment completion, even when other variables were considered (p = 0.01). Treatment retention was longer for patients who participated in Natural Recovery, even if they did not complete treatment. The Natural Recovery Program was associated with improved outcomes, as measured by treatment retention in the first 60 days and by treatment completion. Participants of Natural Recovery with co-morbid psychiatric disorders completed treatment at a higher rate than those with co-morbid psychiatric disorders who participated in the core program. Patients reported high satisfaction with the program. This program may be a valuable adjunct to residential treatment.

Participation in a novel treatment component during residential substance use treatment is associated with improved outcome: a pilot study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A person-centered substance use treatment component, the Natural Recovery Program, was developed. The Natural Recovery Program is comprised of small group therapy combined with pursuit of hobbies. Methods This was a pilot study of the program and was not randomized. A retrospective record review of 643 veterans in an inpatient mental health recovery and rehabilitation program was analyzed to determine if participants of Natural Recovery had a different rate of treatment completion than those who elected to participate in the core program alone. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on: participation in the Natural Recovery Program; co-morbid psychiatric disorders; and legal, medical, and psychiatric issues. Results Participation in Natural Recovery was significantly associated with successful treatment completion when analyzed by univariate analysis (p = 0.01). Other significant variables associated with successful completion included: no co-morbid psychiatric diagnosis, fewer prior suicide attempts, and no homelessness prior to admission. Binary logistic regression demonstrated that participation in Natural Recovery was associated with improved treatment completion, even when other variables were considered (p = 0.01). Treatment retention was longer for patients who participated in Natural Recovery, even if they did not complete treatment. Conclusions The Natural Recovery Program was associated with improved outcomes, as measured by treatment retention in the first 60 days and by treatment completion. Participants of Natural Recovery with co-morbid psychiatric disorders completed treatment at a higher rate than those with co-morbid psychiatric disorders who participated in the core program. Patients reported high satisfaction with the program. This program may be a valuable adjunct to residential treatment. PMID:24886745

Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

2005-05-01

This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research perspectives on a New Zealand example.

Effects of natural current pH variability on the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus larvae development and settlement.

PubMed

García, Eliseba; Clemente, Sabrina; Hernández, José Carlos

2018-08-01

One of the most important environmental factors controlling the distribution, physiology, morphology and behaviour of marine invertebrates is ocean pH. In the last decade, the effects of decreasing ocean pH as a result of climate change processes (i.e. ocean acidification) on marine organisms have been target of much research. However, the effects of natural pH variability in the species' niche have been largely neglected. Marine coastal habitats are characterized by a high environmental variability and, in some cases, organisms are already coping with pH values predicted by the end of the century. It is thought that because of adaptation or acclimation to natural environmental variability, intertidal species may have some resilience to future changes. In this study, we explored the sensitivities of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus during its larvae development and settlement undergoing two different daily pH frequencies (12 h fluctuation from 7.7 to 8.1 units of pH, and constant pH treatment of 8.1 units of pH) that have been currently recorded in the sampling region (Canary Islands). Results showed that, despite larvae development was slightly enhanced by moderated fluctuating pH regimes, P. lividus larva was able to develop normally in both, fluctuating and constant, pH environments. Results of the settlement experiment showed very clear patterns since postlarvae settlement was only successful when a covering of algae was added, regardless of the pH fluctuation applied. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epigenetic patterns newly established after interspecific hybridization in natural populations of Solanum

PubMed Central

Cara, Nicolás; Marfil, Carlos F; Masuelli, Ricardo W

2013-01-01

Interspecific hybridization is known for triggering genetic and epigenetic changes, such as modifications on DNA methylation patterns and impact on phenotypic plasticity and ecological adaptation. Wild potatoes (Solanum, section Petota) are adapted to multiple habitats along the Andes, and natural hybridizations have proven to be a common feature among species of this group. Solanum × rechei, a recently formed hybrid that grows sympatrically with the parental species S. kurtzianum and S. microdontum, represents an ideal model for studying the ecologically and evolutionary importance of hybridization in generating of epigenetic variability. Genetic and epigenetic variability and their correlation with morphological variation were investigated in wild and ex situ conserved populations of these three wild potato species using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) techniques. We observed that novel methylation patterns doubled the number of novel genetic patterns in the hybrid and that the morphological variability measured on 30 characters had a higher correlation with the epigenetic than with the genetic variability. Statistical comparison of methylation levels suggested that the interspecific hybridization induces genome demethylation in the hybrids. A Bayesian analysis of the genetic data reveled the hybrid nature of S. × rechei, with genotypes displaying high levels of admixture with the parental species, while the epigenetic information assigned S. × rechei to its own cluster with low admixture. These findings suggested that after the hybridization event, a novel epigenetic pattern was rapidly established, which might influence the phenotypic plasticity and adaptation of the hybrid to new environments. PMID:24198938

Theoretical microbial ecology without species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tikhonov, Mikhail

2017-09-01

Ecosystems are commonly conceptualized as networks of interacting species. However, partitioning natural diversity of organisms into discrete units is notoriously problematic and mounting experimental evidence raises the intriguing question whether this perspective is appropriate for the microbial world. Here an alternative formalism is proposed that does not require postulating the existence of species as fundamental ecological variables and provides a naturally hierarchical description of community dynamics. This formalism allows approaching the species problem from the opposite direction. While the classical models treat a world of imperfectly clustered organism types as a perturbation around well-clustered species, the presented approach allows gradually adding structure to a fully disordered background. The relevance of this theoretical construct for describing highly diverse natural ecosystems is discussed.

Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

DOE PAGES

Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.; ...

2017-05-19

In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and largemore » ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.« less

High flow and riparian vegetation along the San Miguel River, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedman, J.M.; Auble, G.T.

2000-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are characterized by abundance of water and frequent flow related disturbance. River regulation typically decreases peak flows, reducing the amount of disturbance and altering the vegetation. The San Miguel River is one of the last relatively unregulated rivers remaining in the Colorado River Watershed. One goal of major landowners along the San Miguel including the Bureau of Land Management and The Nature Conservancy is to maintain their lands in a natural condition. Conservation of an entire river corridor requires an integrated understanding of the variability in ecosystems and external influences along the river. Therefore, the Bureau of Land Management and others have fostered a series of studies designed to catalogue that variability, and to characterize the processes that maintain the river as a whole. In addition to providing information useful to managers, these studies present a rare opportunity to investigate how a Colorado river operates in the absence of regulation.

Origin and Function of Tuning Diversity in Macaque Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Goris, Robbe L.T.; Simoncelli, Eero P.; Movshon, J. Anthony

2016-01-01

SUMMARY Neurons in visual cortex vary in their orientation selectivity. We measured responses of V1 and V2 cells to orientation mixtures and fit them with a model whose stimulus selectivity arises from the combined effects of filtering, suppression, and response nonlinearity. The model explains the diversity of orientation selectivity with neuron-to-neuron variability in all three mechanisms, of which variability in the orientation bandwidth of linear filtering is the most important. The model also accounts for the cells’ diversity of spatial frequency selectivity. Tuning diversity is matched to the needs of visual encoding. The orientation content found in natural scenes is diverse, and neurons with different selectivities are adapted to different stimulus configurations. Single orientations are better encoded by highly selective neurons, while orientation mixtures are better encoded by less selective neurons. A diverse population of neurons therefore provides better overall discrimination capabilities for natural images than any homogeneous population. PMID:26549331

CDOM fluorescence as a proxy of DOC concentration in natural waters: a comparison of four contrasting tropical systems.

PubMed

Rochelle-Newall, E; Hulot, F D; Janeau, J L; Merroune, A

2014-01-01

Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence or absorption is often proposed as a rapid alternative to chemical methods for the estimation of bulk dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in natural waters. However, the robustness of this method across a wide range of systems remains to be shown. We measured CDOM fluorescence and DOC concentration in four tropical freshwater and coastal environments (estuary and coastal, tropical shallow lakes, water from the freshwater lens of two small islands, and soil leachates). We found that although this method can provide an estimation of DOC concentration in sites with low variability in DOC and CDOM sources in systems where the variability of DOC and CDOM sources are high, this method should not be used as it will lead to errors in the estimation of the bulk DOC concentration.

Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.

In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and largemore » ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.« less

RAPID-COMMUNICATION Genetic diversity and differentiation in natural populations of Arapaima gigas from lower Amazon revealed by microsatellites.

PubMed

Fazzi-Gomes, P F; Melo, N; Palheta, G; Guerreiro, S; Amador, M; Ribeiro-Dos-Santos, A K; Santos, S; Hamoy, I

2017-02-08

Genetic variability is one of the important criteria for species conservation decisions. This study aimed to analyze the genetic diversity and the population differentiation of two natural populations of Arapaima gigas, a species with a long history of being commercially exploited. We collected 87 samples of A. gigas from Grande Curuai Lake and Paru Lake, located in the Lower Amazon region of Amazônia, Brazil, and genotyped these samples using a multiplex panel of microsatellite markers. Our results showed that the populations of A. gigas analyzed had high levels of genetic variability, which were similar to those described in previous studies. These two populations had a significant population differentiation supported by the estimates of F ST and R ST (0.06), by Bayesian analysis (K = 2), and by population assignment tests, which revealed a moderate genetic distance.

Wetland inventory and variability over the last two decades at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prigent, C.; Papa, F.; Aires, F.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

2011-12-01

Remote sensing techniques employing visible, infrared, and microwave observations offer varying success in estimating wetlands and inundation extent and in monitoring their natural and anthropogenic variations. Low spatial resolution (e.g., 30 km) limits detection to large wetlands but has the advantage of frequent coverage. High spatial resolution (e.g., 100 m), while providing more environmental information, suffers from poor temporal resolution, with observations for just high/low water or warm/cold seasons. Most existing wetland data sets are limited to a few regions, for specific times in the year. The only global inventories of wetland dynamics over a long period of time is derived from a remote-sensing technique employing a suite of complementary satellite observations: it uses passive microwave land-surface microwave emissivities, scatterometer responses, and visible and near infrared reflectances. Combining observations from different instruments makes it possible to capitalize on their complementary strengths, and to extract maximum information about inundation characteristics. The technique is globally applicable without any tuning for particular environments. The satellite data are used to calculate monthly-mean inundated fractions of equal-area grid cells (0.25°x0.25° at the equator), taking into account the contribution of vegetation to the passive microwave signal (Prigent et al., 2001, 2007). Several adjustments to the initial technique have been applied to account for changes in satellite instruments (Papa et al., 2010). The resulting data set now covers 1993-2008 and has been carefully evaluated. We will present the inter-annual variability of the water surface extents under different environments, and relate these variations to other hydrological variables such as river height, precipitation, water runoff, or Grace data. Natural wetlands are the world's largest methane source and dominate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric methane concentrations, with up to 90% of the global methane flux anomalies related to variations in the wetland extent from some estimation. Our data set quantifying inundation dynamics throughout the world's natural wetlands provides a unique opportunity to reduce uncertainties in the role of natural wetlands in the inter-annual variability of the growth rate of atmospheric methane. Papa, F., C. Prigent, C. Jimenez, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Interannual variability of surface water extent at global scale, 1993-2004, JGR, 115, D12111, doi:10.1029/2009JD012674, 2010. Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews, Global inundation dynamics inferred from multiple satellite observations, 1993-2000, JGR, 112, D12107, doi:10.1029/2006JD007847, 2007. Prigent, C., E. Matthews, F. Aires, and W. B. Rossow, Remote sensing of global wetland dynamics with multiple satellite data sets, GRL, 28 , 4631-4634, 2001.

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to sustain biodiversity in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem : balancing complexity and implementation

Treesearch

Brian J. Palik; Robert J. Mitchell; J. Kevin Hiers

2002-01-01

Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to maintain biodiversity is a popular concept, yet its application remains elusive. We discuss difficulties inherent to this idea, and suggest approaches to facilitate implementation, using longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) as an example. Natural disturbance regimes are spatially and temporally variable. Variability...

Effect of field view size and lighting on unique-hue selection using Natural Color System object colors.

PubMed

Shamey, Renzo; Zubair, Muhammad; Cheema, Hammad

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was twofold, first to determine the effect of field view size and second of illumination conditions on the selection of unique hue samples (UHs: R, Y, G and B) from two rotatable trays, each containing forty highly chromatic Natural Color System (NCS) samples, on one tray corresponding to 1.4° and on the other to 5.7° field of view size. UH selections were made by 25 color-normal observers who repeated assessments three times with a gap of at least 24h between trials. Observers separately assessed UHs under four illumination conditions simulating illuminants D65, A, F2 and F11. An apparent hue shift (statistically significant for UR) was noted for UH selections at 5.7° field of view compared to those at 1.4°. Observers' overall variability was found to be higher for UH stimuli selections at the larger field of view. Intra-observer variability was found to be approximately 18.7% of inter-observer variability in selection of samples for both sample sizes. The highest intra-observer variability was under simulated illuminant D65, followed by A, F11, and F2. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fractional Factorial Experiment Designs to Minimize Configuration Changes in Wind Tunnel Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLoach, Richard; Cler, Daniel L.; Graham, Albert B.

2002-01-01

This paper serves as a tutorial to introduce the wind tunnel research community to configuration experiment designs that can satisfy resource constraints in a configuration study involving several variables, without arbitrarily eliminating any of them from the experiment initially. The special case of a configuration study featuring variables at two levels is examined in detail. This is the type of study in which each configuration variable has two natural states - 'on or off', 'deployed or not deployed', 'low or high', and so forth. The basic principles are illustrated by results obtained in configuration studies conducted in the Langley National Transonic Facility and in the ViGYAN Low Speed Tunnel in Hampton, Virginia. The crucial role of interactions among configuration variables is highlighted with an illustration of difficulties that can be encountered when they are not properly taken into account.

Control of variable speed variable pitch wind turbine based on a disturbance observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Haijun; Lei, Xin

2017-11-01

In this paper, a novel sliding mode controller based on disturbance observer (DOB) to optimize the efficiency of variable speed variable pitch (VSVP) wind turbine is developed and analyzed. Due to the highly nonlinearity of the VSVP system, the model is linearly processed to obtain the state space model of the system. Then, a conventional sliding mode controller is designed and a DOB is added to estimate wind speed. The proposed control strategy can successfully deal with the random nature of wind speed, the nonlinearity of VSVP system, the uncertainty of parameters and external disturbance. Via adding the observer to the sliding mode controller, it can greatly reduce the chattering produced by the sliding mode switching gain. The simulation results show that the proposed control system has the effectiveness and robustness.

Simplification of arboreal marsupial assemblages in response to increasing urbanization.

PubMed

Isaac, Bronwyn; White, John; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Cooke, Raylene

2014-01-01

Arboreal marsupials play an essential role in ecosystem function including regulating insect and plant populations, facilitating pollen and seed dispersal and acting as a prey source for higher-order carnivores in Australian environments. Primarily, research has focused on their biology, ecology and response to disturbance in forested and urban environments. We used presence-only species distribution modelling to understand the relationship between occurrences of arboreal marsupials and eco-geographical variables, and to infer habitat suitability across an urban gradient. We used post-proportional analysis to determine whether increasing urbanization affected potential habitat for arboreal marsupials. The key eco-geographical variables that influenced disturbance intolerant species and those with moderate tolerance to disturbance were natural features such as tree cover and proximity to rivers and to riparian vegetation, whereas variables for disturbance tolerant species were anthropogenic-based (e.g., road density) but also included some natural characteristics such as proximity to riparian vegetation, elevation and tree cover. Arboreal marsupial diversity was subject to substantial change along the gradient, with potential habitat for disturbance-tolerant marsupials distributed across the complete gradient and potential habitat for less tolerant species being restricted to the natural portion of the gradient. This resulted in highly-urbanized environments being inhabited by a few generalist arboreal marsupial species. Increasing urbanization therefore leads to functional simplification of arboreal marsupial assemblages, thus impacting on the ecosystem services they provide.

Relation of desert pupfish abundance to selected environmental variables in natural and manmade habitats in the Salton Sea basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, B.A.; Saiki, M.K.

2005-01-01

We assessed the relation between abundance of desert pupfish, Cyprinodon macularius, and selected biological and physicochemical variables in natural and manmade habitats within the Salton Sea Basin. Field sampling in a natural tributary, Salt Creek, and three agricultural drains captured eight species including pupfish (1.1% of the total catch), the only native species encountered. According to Bray-Curtis resemblance functions, fish species assemblages differed mostly between Salt Creek and the drains (i.e., the three drains had relatively similar species assemblages). Pupfish numbers and environmental variables varied among sites and sample periods. Canonical correlation showed that pupfish abundance was positively correlated with abundance of western mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis, and negatively correlated with abundance of porthole livebearers, Poeciliopsis gracilis, tilapias (Sarotherodon mossambica and Tilapia zillii), longjaw mudsuckers, Gillichthys mirabilis, and mollies (Poecilia latipinnaandPoecilia mexicana). In addition, pupfish abundance was positively correlated with cover, pH, and salinity, and negatively correlated with sediment factor (a measure of sediment grain size) and dissolved oxygen. Pupfish abundance was generally highest in habitats where water quality extremes (especially high pH and salinity, and low dissolved oxygen) seemingly limited the occurrence of nonnative fishes. This study also documented evidence of predation by mudsuckers on pupfish. These findings support the contention of many resource managers that pupfish populations are adversely influenced by ecological interactions with nonnative fishes. ?? Springer 2005.

Simplification of Arboreal Marsupial Assemblages in Response to Increasing Urbanization

PubMed Central

Isaac, Bronwyn; White, John; Ierodiaconou, Daniel; Cooke, Raylene

2014-01-01

Arboreal marsupials play an essential role in ecosystem function including regulating insect and plant populations, facilitating pollen and seed dispersal and acting as a prey source for higher-order carnivores in Australian environments. Primarily, research has focused on their biology, ecology and response to disturbance in forested and urban environments. We used presence-only species distribution modelling to understand the relationship between occurrences of arboreal marsupials and eco-geographical variables, and to infer habitat suitability across an urban gradient. We used post-proportional analysis to determine whether increasing urbanization affected potential habitat for arboreal marsupials. The key eco-geographical variables that influenced disturbance intolerant species and those with moderate tolerance to disturbance were natural features such as tree cover and proximity to rivers and to riparian vegetation, whereas variables for disturbance tolerant species were anthropogenic-based (e.g., road density) but also included some natural characteristics such as proximity to riparian vegetation, elevation and tree cover. Arboreal marsupial diversity was subject to substantial change along the gradient, with potential habitat for disturbance-tolerant marsupials distributed across the complete gradient and potential habitat for less tolerant species being restricted to the natural portion of the gradient. This resulted in highly-urbanized environments being inhabited by a few generalist arboreal marsupial species. Increasing urbanization therefore leads to functional simplification of arboreal marsupial assemblages, thus impacting on the ecosystem services they provide. PMID:24608165

A particle swarm optimization variant with an inner variable learning strategy.

PubMed

Wu, Guohua; Pedrycz, Witold; Ma, Manhao; Qiu, Dishan; Li, Haifeng; Liu, Jin

2014-01-01

Although Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has demonstrated competitive performance in solving global optimization problems, it exhibits some limitations when dealing with optimization problems with high dimensionality and complex landscape. In this paper, we integrate some problem-oriented knowledge into the design of a certain PSO variant. The resulting novel PSO algorithm with an inner variable learning strategy (PSO-IVL) is particularly efficient for optimizing functions with symmetric variables. Symmetric variables of the optimized function have to satisfy a certain quantitative relation. Based on this knowledge, the inner variable learning (IVL) strategy helps the particle to inspect the relation among its inner variables, determine the exemplar variable for all other variables, and then make each variable learn from the exemplar variable in terms of their quantitative relations. In addition, we design a new trap detection and jumping out strategy to help particles escape from local optima. The trap detection operation is employed at the level of individual particles whereas the trap jumping out strategy is adaptive in its nature. Experimental simulations completed for some representative optimization functions demonstrate the excellent performance of PSO-IVL. The effectiveness of the PSO-IVL stresses a usefulness of augmenting evolutionary algorithms by problem-oriented domain knowledge.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D.; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.

PubMed

Laxon, Seymour; Peacock, Neil; Smith, Doug

2003-10-30

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Decoding of human hand actions to handle missing limbs in neuroprosthetics.

PubMed

Belić, Jovana J; Faisal, A Aldo

2015-01-01

The only way we can interact with the world is through movements, and our primary interactions are via the hands, thus any loss of hand function has immediate impact on our quality of life. However, to date it has not been systematically assessed how coordination in the hand's joints affects every day actions. This is important for two fundamental reasons. Firstly, to understand the representations and computations underlying motor control "in-the-wild" situations, and secondly to develop smarter controllers for prosthetic hands that have the same functionality as natural limbs. In this work we exploit the correlation structure of our hand and finger movements in daily-life. The novelty of our idea is that instead of averaging variability out, we take the view that the structure of variability may contain valuable information about the task being performed. We asked seven subjects to interact in 17 daily-life situations, and quantified behavior in a principled manner using CyberGlove body sensor networks that, after accurate calibration, track all major joints of the hand. Our key findings are: (1) We confirmed that hand control in daily-life tasks is very low-dimensional, with four to five dimensions being sufficient to explain 80-90% of the variability in the natural movement data. (2) We established a universally applicable measure of manipulative complexity that allowed us to measure and compare limb movements across tasks. We used Bayesian latent variable models to model the low-dimensional structure of finger joint angles in natural actions. (3) This allowed us to build a naïve classifier that within the first 1000 ms of action initiation (from a flat hand start configuration) predicted which of the 17 actions was going to be executed-enabling us to reliably predict the action intention from very short-time-scale initial data, further revealing the foreseeable nature of hand movements for control of neuroprosthetics and tele operation purposes. (4) Using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm on our latent variable model permitted us to reconstruct with high accuracy (<5-6° MAE) the movement trajectory of missing fingers by simply tracking the remaining fingers. Overall, our results suggest the hypothesis that specific hand actions are orchestrated by the brain in such a way that in the natural tasks of daily-life there is sufficient redundancy and predictability to be directly exploitable for neuroprosthetics.

A Strategy for Assessing the Impact of Time-Varying Family Risk Factors on High School Dropout

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randolph, Karen A.; Fraser, Mark W.; Orthner, Dennis K.

2006-01-01

Human behavior is dynamic, influenced by changing situations over time. Yet the impact of the dynamic nature of important explanatory variables on outcomes has only recently begun to be estimated in developmental models. Using a risk factor perspective, this article demonstrates the potential benefits of regressing time-varying outcome measures on…

Pre-fire treatments have persistent effects on post-fire plant communities

Treesearch

Kristen L. Shive

2012-01-01

Wildfires characterized by large areas of high severity are increasingly occurring in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) forests of the Southwest to extents that are out of the natural range of variability. Managers are now routinely applying thinning and/or burning treatments to reduce fire severity. To investigate the effects of pre-fire treatments...

Fire history and pattern in a Cascade Range landscape.

Treesearch

Peter H. Morrison; Frederick J. Swanson

1990-01-01

Fire history from years 1150 to 1985 was reconstructed by analyzing forest stands in two 1940-hectare areas in the central-western Cascade Range of Oregon. Serving as records for major fire episodes, these stands revealed a highly variable fire regime. The steeper, more dissected, lower elevation Cook-Quentin study area experienced more frequent fires (natural fire...

The Collinearity Free and Bias Reduced Regression Estimation Project: The Theory of Normalization Ridge Regression. Report No. 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulcock, J. W.; And Others

Multicollinearity refers to the presence of highly intercorrelated independent variables in structural equation models, that is, models estimated by using techniques such as least squares regression and maximum likelihood. There is a problem of multicollinearity in both the natural and social sciences where theory formulation and estimation is in…

Poverty Lines Based on Fuzzy Sets Theory and Its Application to Malaysian Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdullah, Lazim

2011-01-01

Defining the poverty line has been acknowledged as being highly variable by the majority of published literature. Despite long discussions and successes, poverty line has a number of problems due to its arbitrary nature. This paper proposes three measurements of poverty lines using membership functions based on fuzzy set theory. The three…

Families as Natural Experiments: A Procedure for Estimating the Potentially Biasing Influence of Families on Relationships Between Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teachman, Jay D.

1995-01-01

Argues that data on siblings provide a way to account for the impact of unmeasured, omitted variables on relationships of interest because families form a sort of natural experiment, with similar experiences and common genetic heritage. Proposes a latent-variable structural equation approach to the problem, which provides estimates of both within-…

Possible Noise Nature of Elsässer Variable z- in Highly Alfvénic Solar Wind Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Tu, C.-Y.; He, J.-S.; Wang, L.-H.; Yao, S.; Zhang, L.

2018-01-01

It has been a long-standing debate on the nature of Elsässer variable z- observed in the solar wind fluctuations. It is widely believed that z- represents inward propagating Alfvén waves and interacts nonlinearly with z+ (outward propagating Alfvén waves) to generate energy cascade. However, z- variations sometimes show a feature of convective structures. Here we present a new data analysis on autocorrelation functions of z- in order to get some definite information on its nature. We find that there is usually a large drop on the z- autocorrelation function when the solar wind fluctuations are highly Alfvénic. The large drop observed by Helios 2 spacecraft near 0.3 AU appears at the first nonzero time lag τ = 81 s, where the value of the autocorrelation coefficient drops to 25%-65% of that at τ = 0 s. Beyond the first nonzero time lag, the autocorrelation coefficient decreases gradually to zero. The drop of z- correlation function also appears in the Wind observations near 1 AU. These features of the z- correlation function may suggest that z- fluctuations consist of two components: high-frequency white noise and low-frequency pseudo structures, which correspond to flat and steep parts of z- power spectrum, respectively. This explanation is confirmed by doing a simple test on an artificial time series, which is obtained from the superposition of a random data series on its smoothed sequence. Our results suggest that in highly Alfvénic fluctuations, z- may not contribute importantly to the interactions with z+ to produce energy cascade.

Usage and Attitudes Towards Natural Remedies and Homeopathy in General Pediatrics

PubMed Central

Beer, André-Michael; Burlaka, Ievgeniia; Buskin, Stephen; Kamenov, Borislav; Pettenazzo, Andrea; Popova, Diana; Riveros Huckstadt, María Pilar; Sakalinskas, Virgilijus; Oberbaum, Menachem

2016-01-01

In order to better understand the global approach and country differences in physicians’ usage, knowledge, and attitudes towards natural remedies and homeopathy in pediatric practice, an online survey involving 582 general pediatricians and general practitioners treating pediatric diseases was conducted in 6 countries. Overall, 17% of the pediatric prescriptions refer to phytotherapy and 15% refer to homeopathic preparations. Natural remedies and homeopathic preparations are more frequently used in upper respiratory tract infections, infant colic, sleep disturbances, and recurrent infections. In the majority of cases, they are used together with chemical drugs. Both treatment options are typically used if parents are concerned about side effects of conventional drugs or prefer natural remedies for themselves. Physicians express high interest in natural remedies and homeopathy; however, their knowledge is variable. Lack of proven efficacy, knowledge on mechanism of action, and information on indications are main factors that limit their usage. PMID:27493983

Population biology of Avena : IX. Gene flow and neighborhood size in relation to microgeographic variation in Avena barbata.

PubMed

Rai, Kedar N; Jain, Subodh K

1982-06-01

Pollen and seed dispersal patterns were analyzed in both natural and experimental populations of Avena barbata. Localized estimates of gene flow rates and plant densities gave estimates of neighborhood size in the range of 40 to 400 plants; the estimates of mean rate and distance of gene flow seemed to vary widely due to variable wind direction, rodent activity, microsite heterogeneity, etc. The relative sizes of neighborhoods in several populations were correlated with the patchy distribution of different genotypes (scored for lemma color and leaf sheath hairiness) within short distances, but patch sizes had a wide range among different sites. Highly localized gene flow patterns seemed to account for the observed pattern of highly patchy variation even when the dispersal curves for both pollen and seed were platykurtic in many cases. Measures of the stability of patches in terms of their size, dispersion in space and genetic structure in time are needed in order to sort out the relative roles of founder effects, random drift (due to small neighborhood size), and highly localized selection. However, our observations suggest that many variables and stochastic processes are involved in such studies so as to allow only weak inference about the underlying role of natural selection, drift and factors of population regulatien.

Influence of seasonality and exposure on the accumulation and reproductive effects of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane and dieldrin in largemouth bass.

PubMed

Johnson, Kevin G; Muller, Jennifer K; Price, Bertram; Ware, Adam; Sepúlveda, María S; Borgert, Christopher J; Gross, Timothy S

2007-05-01

Two studies investigated the accumulation and reproductive effects of p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDE) and dieldrin over 30 or 120 d of oral exposure in captive Florida, USA, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides floridanus). The 30-d exposures were conducted during the peak reproductive season, and the 120-d study was conducted to simulate exposure throughout the ovarian cycle. Whole body chemical residue concentrations were similar, regardless of exposure duration, for the medium and high feed concentrations of either chemical; however, the low-dose residue concentrations were much lower, yet similar to natural exposures. No clear dose-response relationships were identified between chemical dose and morphological (length, weight, hepatosomatic index) or reproductive endpoints (sex steroid concentration, gonadosomatic index, percentage of fry hatching). Reproductive parameters were variable within treatment groups, indicating that circulating sex steroids and percent hatch endpoints have high natural variability among fish of the same age and reproductive stage. However, in general there was a decrease in plasma estradiol and 11-ketotestosterone for female and male fish, respectively, that were exposed to dieldrin. Overall, results suggest that exposure throughout ovarian (follicular) development to either DDE or dieldrin alone does not result in the depressed endocrine status and poor reproductive success reported in highly organochlorine pesticide-contaminated environments in Central Florida, USA.

Comprehensive Interrogation of Natural TALE DNA Binding Modules and Transcriptional Repressor Domains

PubMed Central

Cong, Le; Zhou, Ruhong; Kuo, Yu-chi; Cunniff, Margaret; Zhang, Feng

2012-01-01

Transcription activator-like effectors (TALE) are sequence-specific DNA binding proteins that harbor modular, repetitive DNA binding domains. TALEs have enabled the creation of customizable designer transcriptional factors and sequence-specific nucleases for genome engineering. Here we report two improvements of the TALE toolbox for achieving efficient activation and repression of endogenous gene expression in mammalian cells. We show that the naturally occurring repeat variable diresidue (RVD) Asn-His (NH) has high biological activity and specificity for guanine, a highly prevalent base in mammalian genomes. We also report an effective TALE transcriptional repressor architecture for targeted inhibition of transcription in mammalian cells. These findings will improve the precision and effectiveness of genome engineering that can be achieved using TALEs. PMID:22828628

Flood Protection Decision Making Within a Coupled Human and Natural System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Greg; O'Connell, Enda

2013-04-01

Due to the perceived threat from climate change, prediction under changing climatic and hydrological conditions has become a dominant theme of hydrological research. Much of this research has been climate model-centric, in which GCM/RCM climate projections have been used to drive hydrological system models to explore potential impacts that should inform adaptation decision-making. However, adaptation fundamentally involves how humans may respond to increasing flood and drought hazards by changing their strategies, activities and behaviours which are coupled in complex ways to the natural systems within which they live and work. Humans are major agents of change in hydrological systems, and representing human activities and behaviours in coupled human and natural hydrological system models is needed to gain insight into the complex interactions that take place, and to inform adaptation decision-making. Governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains from the perceived increasing flood hazard. However, adopting this as a universal strategy everywhere is not affordable, particularly in times of economic stringency and given uncertainty about future climatic conditions. It has been suggested that the assumption of stationarity, which has traditionally been invoked in making hydrological risk assessments, is no longer tenable. However, before the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity is accepted, the ability to cope with the uncertain impacts of global warming on water management via the operational assumption of hydrologic stationarity should be carefully examined. Much can be learned by focussing on natural climate variability and its inherent changes in assessing alternative adaptation strategies. A stationary stochastic multisite flood hazard model has been developed that can exhibit increasing variability/persistence in annual maximum floods, starting with the traditional assumption of independence. This has been coupled to an agent based model of how various stakeholders interact in determining where and when flood protection investments are made in a hypothetical region with multiple sites at risk from flood hazard. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore how government agencies with finite resources might best invest in flood protection infrastructure in a highly variable climate with a high degree of future uncertainty. Insight is provided into whether proactive or reactive strategies are to be preferred in an increasingly variable climate.

Comparing interpolation techniques for annual temperature mapping across Xinjiang region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren-ping, Zhang; Jing, Guo; Tian-gang, Liang; Qi-sheng, Feng; Aimaiti, Yusupujiang

2016-11-01

Interpolating climatic variables such as temperature is challenging due to the highly variable nature of meteorological processes and the difficulty in establishing a representative network of stations. In this paper, based on the monthly temperature data which obtained from the 154 official meteorological stations in the Xinjiang region and surrounding areas, we compared five spatial interpolation techniques: Inverse distance weighting (IDW), Ordinary kriging, Cokriging, thin-plate smoothing splines (ANUSPLIN) and Empirical Bayesian kriging(EBK). Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Results indicated that, the ANUSPLIN performed best than the other four interpolation methods.

Comparison between SAGE II and ISCCP high-level clouds. 1: Global and zonal mean cloud amounts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Xiaohan; Rossow, William B.; Rind, David

1995-01-01

Global high-level clouds identified in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) occultation measurements for January and July in the period 1985 to 1990 are compared with near-nadir-looking observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Global and zonal mean high-level cloud amounts from the two data sets agree very well, if clouds with layer extinction coefficients of less than 0.008/km at 1.02 micrometers wavelength are removed from the SAGE II results and all detected clouds are interpreted to have an average horizontal size of about 75 km along the 200 km transimission path length of the SAGE II observations. The SAGE II results are much more sensitive to variations of assumed cloud size than to variations of detection threshold. The geographical distribution of cloud fractions shows good agreement, but systematic regional differences also indicate that the average cloud size varies somewhat among different climate regimes. The more sensitive SAGE II results show that about one third of all high-level clouds are missed by ISCCP but that these clouds have very low optical thicknesses (less than 0.1 at 0.6 micrometers wavelength). SAGE II sampling error in monthly zonal cloud fraction is shown to produce no bias, to be less than the intraseasonal natural variability, but to be comparable with the natural variability at longer time scales.

Potential Universal Application of High-intensity Interval Training from Athletes and Sports Lovers to Patients.

PubMed

Azuma, Koichiro; Matsumoto, Hideo

2017-06-25

Recently, high-intensity interval training (HIIT) has received much attention as a promising exercise option not only to improve aerobic fitness, but also to prevent and improve lifestyle-related diseases. Epidemiological studies have shown that the exercise volume, as determined by the product of exercise intensity, duration, and frequency, has been shown to be important for improvements in muscle mitochondrial activity and subsequent improvements in aerobic fitness, insulin sensitivity, and metabolic variables. Therefore, continuous moderate-intensity training has been widely recommended. On the other hand, the main contributor of HIIT to improvements in aerobic fitness and metabolic variables is its high-intensity nature, and many recent studies have shown results favoring HIIT when compared with conventional continuous training, despite its shorter exercise duration and smaller exercise volume. In this review, we aim to show the possible universal application of HIIT in a hospital setting, where athletes, sports lovers, and patients have sought medical advice and have the opportunity to undergo detailed evaluations, including an exercise stress test. For athletes, HIIT is mandatory to achieve further improvements in aerobic fitness. For patients, though higher levels of motivation and careful evaluation are required, the time constraints of HIIT are smaller and both aerobic and resistance training can be expected to yield favorable results because of the high-intensity nature of HIIT.

Coupled surface and subsurface flow modeling of natural hillslopes in the Aburrá Valley (Medellín, Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blessent, Daniela; Barco, Janet; Temgoua, André Guy Tranquille; Echeverrri-Ramirez, Oscar

2017-03-01

Numerical results are presented of surface-subsurface water modeling of a natural hillslope located in the Aburrá Valley, in the city of Medellín (Antioquia, Colombia). The integrated finite-element hydrogeological simulator HydroGeoSphere is used to conduct transient variably saturated simulations. The objective is to analyze pore-water pressure and saturation variation at shallow depths, as well as volumes of water infiltrated in the porous medium. These aspects are important in the region of study, which is highly affected by soil movements, especially during the high-rain seasons that occur twice a year. The modeling exercise considers rainfall events that occurred between October and December 2014 and a hillslope that is currently monitored because of soil instability problems. Simulation results show that rainfall temporal variability, mesh resolution, coupling length, and the conceptual model chosen to represent the heterogeneous soil, have a noticeable influence on results, particularly for high rainfall intensities. Results also indicate that surface-subsurface coupled modeling is required to avoid unrealistic increase in hydraulic heads when high rainfall intensities cause top-down saturation of soil. This work is a first effort towards fostering hydrogeological modeling expertise that may support the development of monitoring systems and early landslide warning in a country where the rainy season is often the cause of hydrogeological tragedies associated with landslides, mud flow or debris flow.

Spatial Correlations in Natural Scenes Modulate Response Reliability in Mouse Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Rikhye, Rajeev V.

2015-01-01

Intrinsic neuronal variability significantly limits information encoding in the primary visual cortex (V1). Certain stimuli can suppress this intertrial variability to increase the reliability of neuronal responses. In particular, responses to natural scenes, which have broadband spatiotemporal statistics, are more reliable than responses to stimuli such as gratings. However, very little is known about which stimulus statistics modulate reliable coding and how this occurs at the neural ensemble level. Here, we sought to elucidate the role that spatial correlations in natural scenes play in reliable coding. We developed a novel noise-masking method to systematically alter spatial correlations in natural movies, without altering their edge structure. Using high-speed two-photon calcium imaging in vivo, we found that responses in mouse V1 were much less reliable at both the single neuron and population level when spatial correlations were removed from the image. This change in reliability was due to a reorganization of between-neuron correlations. Strongly correlated neurons formed ensembles that reliably and accurately encoded visual stimuli, whereas reducing spatial correlations reduced the activation of these ensembles, leading to an unreliable code. Together with an ensemble-specific normalization model, these results suggest that the coordinated activation of specific subsets of neurons underlies the reliable coding of natural scenes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The natural environment is rich with information. To process this information with high fidelity, V1 neurons have to be robust to noise and, consequentially, must generate responses that are reliable from trial to trial. While several studies have hinted that both stimulus attributes and population coding may reduce noise, the details remain unclear. Specifically, what features of natural scenes are important and how do they modulate reliability? This study is the first to investigate the role of spatial correlations, which are a fundamental attribute of natural scenes, in shaping stimulus coding by V1 neurons. Our results provide new insights into how stimulus spatial correlations reorganize the correlated activation of specific ensembles of neurons to ensure accurate information processing in V1. PMID:26511254

Novel Strategy to Evaluate Infectious Salmon Anemia Virus Variants by High Resolution Melting

PubMed Central

Sepúlveda, Dagoberto; Cárdenas, Constanza; Carmona, Marisela; Marshall, Sergio H.

2012-01-01

Genetic variability is a key problem in the prevention and therapy of RNA-based virus infections. Infectious Salmon Anemia virus (ISAv) is an RNA virus which aggressively attacks salmon producing farms worldwide and in particular in Chile. Just as with most of the Orthomyxovirus, ISAv displays high variability in its genome which is reflected by a wider infection potential, thus hampering management and prevention of the disease. Although a number of widely validated detection procedures exist, in this case there is a need of a more complex approach to the characterization of virus variability. We have adapted a procedure of High Resolution Melting (HRM) as a fine-tuning technique to fully differentiate viral variants detected in Chile and projected to other infective variants reported elsewhere. Out of the eight viral coding segments, the technique was adapted using natural Chilean variants for two of them, namely segments 5 and 6, recognized as virulence-associated factors. Our work demonstrates the versatility of the technique as well as its superior resolution capacity compared with standard techniques currently in use as key diagnostic tools. PMID:22719837

Extreme Variables in Star Forming Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras Peña, Carlos Eduardo

2015-01-01

The notion that low- to intermediate-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) gain mass at a constant rate during the early stages of their evolution appears to be challenged by observations of YSOs suffering sudden increases of the rate at which they gain mass from their circumstellar discs. Also, this idea that stars spend most of their lifetime with a low accretion rate and gain most of their final mass during short-lived episodes of high accretion bursts, helps to solve some long-standing problems in stellar evolution. The original classification of eruptive variables divides them in two separate subclasses known as FU Orionis stars (FUors) and EX Lupi stars (EXors). In this classical view FUors are at an early evolutionary stage and are still gaining mass from their parent envelopes, whilst EXors are thought to be older objects only surrounded by an accretion disc. The problem with this classical view is that it excludes younger protostars which have higher accretion rates but are too deeply embedded in circumstellar matter to be observed at optical wavelengths. Optically invisible protostars have been observed to display large variability in the near-infrared. These and some recent discoveries of new eruptive variables, show characteristics that can be attributed to both of the optically-defined subclasses of eruptive variables. The new objects have been proposed to be part of a new class of eruptive variables. However, a more accepted scenario is that in fact the original classes only represent two extremes of the same phenomena. In this sense eruptive variability could be explained as arising from one physical mechanism, i.e. unsteady accretion, where a variation in the parameters of such mechanism can cause the different characteristics observed in the members of this class. With the aim of studying the incidence of episodic accretion among young stellar objects, and to characterize the nature of these eruptive variables we searched for high amplitude variability in two multi-epoch infrared surveys: the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey (GPS) and the Vista Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV). In order to further investigate the nature of the selected variable stars, we use photometric information arising from public surveys at near- to far-infrared wavelengths. In addition we have performed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up for a large subset of the samples arising from GPS and VVV. We analyse the widely separated two-epoch K-band photometry in the 5th, 7th and 8th data releases of the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. We find 71 stars with ΔK > 1 mag, including 2 previously known OH/IR stars and a Nova. Even though the mid-plane is mostly excluded from the dataset, we find the majority (66%) of our sample to be within known star forming regions (SFRs), with two large concentrations in the Serpens OB2 association (11 stars) and the Cygnus-X complex (27 stars). The analysis of the multi-epoch K-band photometry of 2010-2012 data from VVV covering the Galactic disc at |b| < 1° yields 816 high amplitude variables, which include known variables of different classes such as high mass X-ray binaries, Novae and eclipsing binaries among others. Remarkably, 65% of the sample are found concentrated towards areas of star formation, similar to the results from GPS. In both surveys, sources in SFRs show spectral energy distributions (SEDs) that support classification as YSOs. This indicates that YSOs dominate the Galactic population of high amplitude infrared variable stars at low luminosities and therefore likely dominate the total high amplitude population. Spectroscopic follow-up allows us to confirm the pre-main sequence nature of several GPS and VVV Objects. Most objects in both samples show spectroscopic signatures that can be attributed to YSOs undergoing high states of accretion, such as veiling of photospheric features and CO emission, or show FUor-like spectra. We also find a large fraction of objects with 2.12 μm H2 emission that can be explained as arising from shock-excited emission caused by molecular outflows. Whether these molecular outflows are related to outbursts events cannot be confirmed from our data. Adding the GPS and VVV spectroscopic results, we find that between 6 and 14 objects are new additions to the FUor class from their close resemblance to the near-infrared spectra of FUors, and at least 23 more objects are new additions to the eruptive variable class. For most of these we are unable to classify them into any of the original definitions for this variable class. In any case, we are adding up to 37 new stars to the eruptive variable class which would double the current number of known objects. We note that most objects are found to be deeply embedded optically invisible stars, thus increasing the number of objects belonging to this subclass by a much larger factor. In general, objects in our samples which are found to be likely eruptive variable stars show a mixture of characteristics that can be attributed to both of the optically-defined classes. This agrees well with the recent discoveries in the literature. Finally, we are able to derive a first rough estimate on the incidence of episodic accretion among class I YSOs in the star-forming complex G305. We find that ~9% of such objects are in a state of high accretion. This number is in agreement with previous theoretical and observational estimates among class I YSOs.

Estimations of natural variability between satellite measurements of trace species concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheese, P.; Walker, K. A.; Boone, C. D.; Degenstein, D. A.; Kolonjari, F.; Plummer, D. A.; von Clarmann, T.

2017-12-01

In order to validate satellite measurements of atmospheric states, it is necessary to understand the range of random and systematic errors inherent in the measurements. On occasions where the measurements do not agree within those errors, a common "go-to" explanation is that the unexplained difference can be chalked up to "natural variability". However, the expected natural variability is often left ambiguous and rarely quantified. This study will look to quantify the expected natural variability of both O3 and NO2 between two satellite instruments: ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer) and OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System). By sampling the CMAM30 (30-year specified dynamics simulation of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) climate chemistry model throughout the upper troposphere and stratosphere at times and geolocations of coincident ACE-FTS and OSIRIS measurements at varying coincidence criteria, height-dependent expected values of O3 and NO2 variability will be estimated and reported on. The results could also be used to better optimize the coincidence criteria used in satellite measurement validation studies.

Reconstructing Past Seasonal to Multicentennial-Scale Variability in the NE Atlantic Ocean Using the Long-Lived Marine Bivalve Mollusk Glycymeris glycymeris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, D. J.; Hall, I. R.; Slater, S. M.; Scourse, J. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Sayer, M. D. J.

2017-11-01

The lack of long-term, highly resolved (annual to subannual) and absolutely dated baseline records of marine variability extending beyond the instrumental period (last 50-100 years) hinders our ability to develop a comprehensive understanding of the role the ocean plays in the climate system. Specifically, without such records, it remains difficult to fully quantify the range of natural climate variability mediated by the ocean and to robustly attribute recent changes to anthropogenic or natural drivers. Here we present a 211 year (1799-2010 C.E.; all dates hereafter are Common Era) seawater temperature (SWT) reconstruction from the northeast Atlantic Ocean derived from absolutely dated, annually resolved, oxygen isotope ratios recorded in the shell carbonate (δ18Oshell) of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusk Glycymeris glycymeris. The annual record was calibrated using subannually resolved δ18Oshell values drilled from multiple shells covering the instrumental period. Calibration verification statistics and spatial correlation analyses indicate that the δ18Oshell record contains significant skill at reconstructing Northeast Atlantic Ocean mean summer SWT variability associated with changes in subpolar gyre dynamics and the North Atlantic Current. Reconciling differences between the δ18Oshell data and corresponding growth increment width chronology demonstrates that 68% of the variability in G. glycymeris shell growth can be explained by the combined influence of biological productivity and SWT variability. These data suggest that G. glycymeris can provide seasonal to multicentennial absolutely dated baseline records of past marine variability that will lead to the development of a quantitative understanding of the role the marine environment plays in the global climate system.

Multirate delivery of multiple therapeutic agents from metal-organic frameworks

DOE PAGES

McKinlay, Alistair C.; Allan, Phoebe K.; Renouf, Catherine L.; ...

2014-12-01

The highly porous nature of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) offers great potential for the delivery of therapeutic agents. Here, we show that highly porous metal-organic frameworks can be used to deliver multiple therapeutic agents—a biologically active gas, an antibiotic drug molecule, and an active metal ion—simultaneously but at different rates. The possibilities offered by delivery of multiple agents with different mechanisms of action and, in particular, variable timescales may allow new therapy approaches. Here, we show that the loaded MOFs are highly active against various strains of bacteria.

New Insights Into an Old Arrhythmia: High-Resolution Mapping Demonstrates Conduction and Substrate Variability in Right Atrial Macro-Re-Entrant Tachycardia.

PubMed

Pathik, Bhupesh; Lee, Geoffrey; Sacher, Frédéric; Jaïs, Pierre; Massoullié, Grégoire; Derval, Nicolas; Bates, Matthew G; Lipton, Jonathan; Joseph, Stephen; Morton, Joseph; Sparks, Paul; Kistler, Peter; Kalman, Jonathan M

2017-09-01

Using high-resolution 3-dimensional (3D) mapping, the aim of this study was to further characterize right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardias and answer unresolved questions in the understanding of this arrhythmia. Despite advances in understanding of the mechanisms of right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardias, many questions lack definitive answers. The advent of high-resolution 3D mapping provides an opportunity to gain further insights into the nature of these common circuits. A total of 25 patients with right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardia were studied. High-resolution 3D mapping (Rhythmia mapping system, Boston Scientific, Natick, Massachusetts) was performed. Regional voltage and conduction velocity were determined. Maps were analyzed to characterize wave front propagation patterns in all atrial regions. The relationship between substrate and conduction was evaluated. A total of 42 right atrial macro-re-entrant circuits were observed. The most common location of the posterior line of block was the posteromedial right atrium (73%). This line of block continued superiorly into the superior vena cava, taking an oblique course to finish on the anterior superior vena cava aspect in 73%. Conduction delay at the crista terminalis was less common (23%). Conduction slowing or block was seen at the limbus of the fossa ovalis (73%) and Eustachian ridge (77%). Highly variable and localized areas of slow conduction were also observed in the inferior septum (45%), superior septum (27%), anterosuperior right atrium (23%), and lateral right atrium (23%). Localized conduction slowing was seen in the cavotricuspid isthmus in 50% of patients, but there was no generalized conduction slowing in this isthmus. The voltage in regions of slow conduction was significantly lower compared with areas of normal conduction velocity (p < 0.001). Conduction channels were observed in 55% of patients. High-resolution 3D mapping has provided new insights into the nature of right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardias. Variable regions of abnormal atrial substrate were associated with conduction slowing and block. Individual variation in propagation patterns was observed in association with this variable substrate. (Mapping of Atrial Arrhythmias Using High Spatial Resolution Mapping Catheters and the Rhythmia Mapping System; ACTRN12615000544572). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying the fingerprints of the anthropogenic component of land use/land cover changes on regional climate of the USA high plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutiibwa, D.; Irmak, S.

2011-12-01

The majority of recent climate change studies have largely focused on detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcings of greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. However, there is growing evidence that land cover/land use (LULC) change can significantly impact atmospheric processes from local to regional weather and climate variability. Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of the land surfaces including albedo, energy balance, moisture-holding capacity of soil, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, and ultimately impact the climate system. The challenge is to demonstrate that LULC changes produce a signal that can be discerned from natural climate noise. In this study, we attempt to detect the signature of anthropogenic forcing of LULC change on climate on regional scale. The signal projector investigated for detecting the signature of LULC changes on regional climate of the High Plains of the USA is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI is an indicator that captures short and long-term geographical distribution of vegetation surfaces. The study develops an enhanced signal processing procedure to maximize the signal to noise ratio by introducing a pre-filtering technique of ARMA processes on the investigated climate and signal variables, before applying the optimal fingerprinting technique to detect the signals of LULC changes on observed climate, temperature, in the High Plains. The intent is to filter out as much noise as possible while still retaining the essential features of the signal by making use of the known characteristics of the noise and the anticipated signal. The study discusses the approach of identifying and suppressing the autocorrelation in optimal fingerprint analysis by applying linear transformation of ARMA processes to the analysis variables. With the assumption that natural climate variability is a near stationary process, the pre-filters are developed to generate stationary residuals. The High Plains region although impacted by droughts over the last three decades has had an increase in agricultural lands, both irrigated and non-irrigated. The study shows that for the most part of the High Plains region there is significant influence of evaporative cooling on regional climate during the summer months. As the vegetation coverage increases coupled with increased in irrigation application, the regional daytime surface energy in summer is increasingly redistributed into latent heat flux which increases the effect of evaporative cooling on summer temperatures. We included the anthropogenic forcing of CO2 on regional climate with the main purpose of surpassing the radiative heating effect of greenhouse gases from natural climate noise, to enhance the LULC signal-to-noise ratio. The warming signal due to greenhouse gas forcing is observed to be weakest in the central part of the High Plains. The results showed that the CO2 signal in the region was weak or is being surpassed by the evaporative cooling effect.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using IFA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Thirumalai, Kaustubh

2017-04-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Anticipating future ENSO variability under anthropogenic forcing is vital due to its profound socioeconomic impact. Fossil corals suggest that 20th century ENSO variance is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene (Cobb et al., 2013, Science), the Last Glacial Maximum (Ford et al., 2015, Science) and the last glacial period (Tudhope et al., 2001, Science). Yet, recent climate modeling experiments suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño (Cai et al., 2014, Nature Climate Change) and La Niña (Cai et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change) events. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009, Paleoceanography), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013, Paleoceanography). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows. We will also use previously published data from the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Our dataset confirms variable ENSO intensity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene. As a next step, ENSO activity will be discussed with respect to the contrasting climatic background of the analysed time windows (millenial-scale variability, Terminations).

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America

PubMed Central

Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.

2017-01-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900

Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.

PubMed

Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P

2017-06-01

Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.

Effects of visual feedback-induced variability on motor learning of handrim wheelchair propulsion.

PubMed

Leving, Marika T; Vegter, Riemer J K; Hartog, Johanneke; Lamoth, Claudine J C; de Groot, Sonja; van der Woude, Lucas H V

2015-01-01

It has been suggested that a higher intra-individual variability benefits the motor learning of wheelchair propulsion. The present study evaluated whether feedback-induced variability on wheelchair propulsion technique variables would also enhance the motor learning process. Learning was operationalized as an improvement in mechanical efficiency and propulsion technique, which are thought to be closely related during the learning process. 17 Participants received visual feedback-based practice (feedback group) and 15 participants received regular practice (natural learning group). Both groups received equal practice dose of 80 min, over 3 weeks, at 0.24 W/kg at a treadmill speed of 1.11 m/s. To compare both groups the pre- and post-test were performed without feedback. The feedback group received real-time visual feedback on seven propulsion variables with instruction to manipulate the presented variable to achieve the highest possible variability (1st 4-min block) and optimize it in the prescribed direction (2nd 4-min block). To increase motor exploration the participants were unaware of the exact variable they received feedback on. Energy consumption and the propulsion technique variables with their respective coefficient of variation were calculated to evaluate the amount of intra-individual variability. The feedback group, which practiced with higher intra-individual variability, improved the propulsion technique between pre- and post-test to the same extent as the natural learning group. Mechanical efficiency improved between pre- and post-test in the natural learning group but remained unchanged in the feedback group. These results suggest that feedback-induced variability inhibited the improvement in mechanical efficiency. Moreover, since both groups improved propulsion technique but only the natural learning group improved mechanical efficiency, it can be concluded that the improvement in mechanical efficiency and propulsion technique do not always appear simultaneously during the motor learning process. Their relationship is most likely modified by other factors such as the amount of the intra-individual variability.

Effects of Visual Feedback-Induced Variability on Motor Learning of Handrim Wheelchair Propulsion

PubMed Central

Leving, Marika T.; Vegter, Riemer J. K.; Hartog, Johanneke; Lamoth, Claudine J. C.; de Groot, Sonja; van der Woude, Lucas H. V.

2015-01-01

Background It has been suggested that a higher intra-individual variability benefits the motor learning of wheelchair propulsion. The present study evaluated whether feedback-induced variability on wheelchair propulsion technique variables would also enhance the motor learning process. Learning was operationalized as an improvement in mechanical efficiency and propulsion technique, which are thought to be closely related during the learning process. Methods 17 Participants received visual feedback-based practice (feedback group) and 15 participants received regular practice (natural learning group). Both groups received equal practice dose of 80 min, over 3 weeks, at 0.24 W/kg at a treadmill speed of 1.11 m/s. To compare both groups the pre- and post-test were performed without feedback. The feedback group received real-time visual feedback on seven propulsion variables with instruction to manipulate the presented variable to achieve the highest possible variability (1st 4-min block) and optimize it in the prescribed direction (2nd 4-min block). To increase motor exploration the participants were unaware of the exact variable they received feedback on. Energy consumption and the propulsion technique variables with their respective coefficient of variation were calculated to evaluate the amount of intra-individual variability. Results The feedback group, which practiced with higher intra-individual variability, improved the propulsion technique between pre- and post-test to the same extent as the natural learning group. Mechanical efficiency improved between pre- and post-test in the natural learning group but remained unchanged in the feedback group. Conclusion These results suggest that feedback-induced variability inhibited the improvement in mechanical efficiency. Moreover, since both groups improved propulsion technique but only the natural learning group improved mechanical efficiency, it can be concluded that the improvement in mechanical efficiency and propulsion technique do not always appear simultaneously during the motor learning process. Their relationship is most likely modified by other factors such as the amount of the intra-individual variability. PMID:25992626

Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

2017-07-01

The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for better informed decision-making on adaptation strategies. References 1. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of extremes. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 491-496 (2012). 2. Rötter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E. & Porter, J. R. Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim. Change, 1, 175-177 (2011). 3. Asseng, S. et al., Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Clim. Change. 10.1038/nclimate1916. (2013). 4. Porter, J.R., & Semenov, M., Crop responses to climatic variation . Trans. R. Soc. B., 360, 2021-2035 (2005). 5. Porter, J.R. & Christensen, S. Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities. Plant, Cell and Environment . doi: 10.1111/pce.12107 (2013). 6. Boogaard, H.L., van Diepen C.A., Rötter R.P., Cabrera J.M. & van Laar H.H. User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and Control Center 1.5, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands. (1998) 7. Tao, F. & Zhang, Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 170, 146-165. (2013).

Geography and the costs of urban energy infrastructure: The case of electricity and natural gas capital investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senyel, Muzeyyen Anil

Investments in the urban energy infrastructure for distributing electricity and natural gas are analyzed using (1) property data measuring distribution plant value at the local/tax district level, and (2) system outputs such as sectoral numbers of customers and energy sales, input prices, company-specific characteristics such as average wages and load factor. Socio-economic and site-specific urban and geographic variables, however, often been neglected in past studies. The purpose of this research is to incorporate these site-specific characteristics of electricity and natural gas distribution into investment cost model estimations. These local characteristics include (1) socio-economic variables, such as income and wealth; (2) urban-related variables, such as density, land-use, street pattern, housing pattern; (3) geographic and environmental variables, such as soil, topography, and weather, and (4) company-specific characteristics such as average wages, and load factor. The classical output variables include residential and commercial-industrial customers and sales. In contrast to most previous research, only capital investments at the local level are considered. In addition to aggregate cost modeling, the analysis focuses on the investment costs for the system components: overhead conductors, underground conductors, conduits, poles, transformers, services, street lighting, and station equipment for electricity distribution; and mains, services, regular and industrial measurement and regulation stations for natural gas distribution. The Box-Cox, log-log and additive models are compared to determine the best fitting cost functions. The Box-Cox form turns out to be superior to the other forms at the aggregate level and for network components. However, a linear additive form provides a better fit for end-user related components. The results show that, in addition to output variables and company-specific variables, various site-specific variables are statistically significant at the aggregate and disaggregate levels. Local electricity and natural gas distribution networks are characterized by a natural monopoly cost structure and economies of scale and density. The results provide evidence for the economies of scale and density for the aggregate electricity and natural gas distribution systems. However, distribution components have varying economic characteristics. The backbones of the networks (overhead conductors for electricity, and mains for natural gas) display economies of scale and density, but services in both systems and street lighting display diseconomies of scale and diseconomies of density. Finally multi-utility network cost analyses are presented for aggregate and disaggregate electricity and natural gas capital investments. Economies of scope analyses investigate whether providing electricity and natural gas jointly is economically advantageous, as compared to providing these products separately. Significant economies of scope are observed for both the total network and the underground capital investments.

Mapping the Potential for Eolian Surface Activity in Grasslands of the High Plains using Landsat Images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutmann, Ethan Dain

2002-01-01

There are over 100,000 square kilometers of eolian sand dunes and sand sheets in the High Plains of the central United States. These land-forms may be unstable and may reactivate again as a result of land-use, climate change, or natural climatic variability. The main goal of this thesis was to develop a model that could be used to map an estimate of future dune activity. Multi-temporal calibrated Landsats 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and 7 Enhanced Thematic Map per Plus (ETM+) NDVI imagery were used in conjunction with the CENTURY vegetation model to correlate vegetation cover to climatic variability. This allows the creation of a predicted vegetation map which, combined with current wind and soil data, was used to create a potential sand transport map for range land in the High Plains under drought conditions.

Genetic variability and differentiation among populations of the Azorean endemic gymnosperm Juniperus brevifolia: baseline information for a conservation and restoration perspective.

PubMed

Silva, Luís; Elias, Rui B; Moura, Mónica; Meimberg, Harald; Dias, Eduardo

2011-12-01

The Azorean endemic gymnosperm Juniperus brevifolia (Seub.) Antoine is a top priority species for conservation in Macaronesia, based on its ecological significance in natural plant communities. To evaluate genetic variability and differentiation among J. brevifolia populations from the Azorean archipelago, we studied 15 ISSR and 15 RAPD markers in 178 individuals from 18 populations. The average number of polymorphic bands per population was 65 for both ISSR and RAPD. The majority of genetic variability was found within populations and among populations within islands, and this partitioning of variability was confirmed by AMOVA. The large majority of population pairwise F(ST) values were above 0.3 and below 0.6. The degree of population genetic differentiation in J. brevifolia was relatively high compared with other species, including Juniperus spp. The genetic differentiation among populations suggests that provenance should be considered when formulating augmentation or reintroduction strategies.

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Edward R.

2015-01-01

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

Methodological framework for heart rate variability analysis during exercise: application to running and cycling stress testing.

PubMed

Hernando, David; Hernando, Alberto; Casajús, Jose A; Laguna, Pablo; Garatachea, Nuria; Bailón, Raquel

2018-05-01

Standard methodologies of heart rate variability analysis and physiological interpretation as a marker of autonomic nervous system condition have been largely published at rest, but not so much during exercise. A methodological framework for heart rate variability (HRV) analysis during exercise is proposed, which deals with the non-stationary nature of HRV during exercise, includes respiratory information, and identifies and corrects spectral components related to cardiolocomotor coupling (CC). This is applied to 23 male subjects who underwent different tests: maximal and submaximal, running and cycling; where the ECG, respiratory frequency and oxygen consumption were simultaneously recorded. High-frequency (HF) power results largely modified from estimations with the standard fixed band to those obtained with the proposed methodology. For medium and high levels of exercise and recovery, HF power results in a 20 to 40% increase. When cycling, HF power increases around 40% with respect to running, while CC power is around 20% stronger in running.

Meaning and challenges in the practice of multiple therapeutic massage modalities: a combined methods study.

PubMed

Porcino, Antony J; Boon, Heather S; Page, Stacey A; Verhoef, Marja J

2011-09-20

Therapeutic massage and bodywork (TMB) practitioners are predominantly trained in programs that are not uniformly standardized, and in variable combinations of therapies. To date no studies have explored this variability in training and how this affects clinical practice. Combined methods, consisting of a quantitative, population-based survey and qualitative interviews with practitioners trained in multiple therapies, were used to explore the training and practice of TMB practitioners in Alberta, Canada. Of the 5242 distributed surveys, 791 were returned (15.1%). Practitioners were predominantly female (91.7%), worked in a range of environments, primarily private (44.4%) and home clinics (35.4%), and were not significantly different from other surveyed massage therapist populations. Seventy-seven distinct TMB therapies were identified. Most practitioners were trained in two or more therapies (94.4%), with a median of 8 and range of 40 therapies. Training programs varied widely in number and type of TMB components, training length, or both. Nineteen interviews were conducted. Participants described highly variable training backgrounds, resulting in practitioners learning unique combinations of therapy techniques. All practitioners reported providing individualized patient treatment based on a responsive feedback process throughout practice that they described as being critical to appropriately address the needs of patients. They also felt that research treatment protocols were different from clinical practice because researchers do not usually sufficiently acknowledge the individualized nature of TMB care provision. The training received, the number of therapies trained in, and the practice descriptors of TMB practitioners are all highly variable. In addition, clinical experience and continuing education may further alter or enhance treatment techniques. Practitioners individualize each patient's treatment through a highly adaptive process. Therefore, treatment provision is likely unique to each practitioner. These results may be of interest to researchers considering similar practice issues in other professions. The use of a combined-methods design effectively captured this complexity of TMB practice. TMB research needs to consider research approaches that can capture or adapt to the individualized nature of practice.

NATURAL AND HUMAN FACTORS STRUCTURING FISH ASSEMBLAGES IN WEST VIRGINIA WADEABLE STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

We surveyed fishes and environmental variables in 119 stream basins to identify natural and anthropogenic factors structuring fish assemblages. We collected fishes and physico-chemical variables using standardized EPA methods and compiled basin characteristics (e.g., land cover)...

Molecular basis of natural variation and environmental control of trichome patterning

PubMed Central

Hauser, Marie-Theres

2014-01-01

Trichomes are differentiated epidermal cells on above ground organs of nearly all land plants. They play important protective roles as structural defenses upon biotic attacks such as herbivory, oviposition and fungal infections, and against abiotic stressors such as drought, heat, freezing, excess of light, and UV radiation. The pattern and density of trichomes is highly variable within natural population suggesting tradeoffs between traits positively affecting fitness such as resistance and the costs of trichome production. The spatial distribution of trichomes is regulated through a combination of endogenous developmental programs and external signals. This review summarizes the current understanding on the molecular basis of the natural variation and the role of phytohormones and environmental stimuli on trichome patterning. PMID:25071803

Generalized Growth of Estuarine, Household and Clinical Isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

PubMed

Diaz, Kelly E; Remold, Susanna K; Onyiri, Ogochukwu; Bozeman, Maura; Raymond, Peter A; Turner, Paul E

2018-01-01

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen of particular concern to immune-compromised people, such as cystic fibrosis patients and burn victims. These bacteria grow in built environments including hospitals and households, and in natural environments such as rivers and estuaries. However, there is conflicting evidence whether recent environments like the human lung and open ocean affect P. aeruginosa growth performance in alternate environments. We hypothesized that bacteria recently isolated from dissimilar habitats should grow differently in media containing artificial versus natural resources. To test this idea, we examined growth of P. aeruginosa isolates from three environments (estuary, household, and clinic) in three media types: minimal-glucose lab medium, and media prepared from sugar maple leaves or big bluestem grass. We used automated spectrophotometry to measure high-resolution growth curves for all isolate by media combinations, and studied two fitness parameters: growth rate and maximum population density. Results showed high variability in growth rate among isolates, both overall and in its dependence on assay media, but this variability was not associated with habitat of isolation. In contrast, total growth (change in absorbance over the experiment) differed overall among habitats of isolation, and there were media-specific differences in mean total growth among habitats of isolation, and in among-habitat variability in the media-specific response. This was driven primarily by greater total growth of estuary isolates when compared with those from other habitats of origin, and greater media-specific variability among household isolates than those from other habitats of origin. Taken together, these results suggest that for growth rate P. aeruginosa bacteria appear to be broad generalists without regard to current or recent habitat, whereas for total growth a signature of recent ecological history can be detected.

Airborne radionuclides in the proglacial environment as indicators of sources and transfers of soil material.

PubMed

Łokas, Edyta; Wachniew, Przemysław; Jodłowski, Paweł; Gąsiorek, Michał

2017-11-01

A survey of artificial ( 137 Cs, 238 Pu, 239+240 Pu, 241 Am) and natural ( 226 Ra, 232 Th, 40 K, 210 Pb) radioactive isotopes in proglacial soils of an Arctic glacier have revealed high spatial variability of activity concentrations and inventories of the airborne radionuclides. Soil column 137 Cs inventories range from below the detection limit to nearly 120 kBq m -2 , this value significantly exceeding direct atmospheric deposition. This variability may result from the mixing of materials characterised by different contents of airborne radionuclides. The highest activity concentrations observed in the proglacial soils may result from the deposition of cryoconites, which have been shown to accumulate airborne radionuclides on the surface of glaciers. The role of cryoconites in radionuclide accumulation is supported by the concordant enrichment of the naturally occurring airborne 210 Pb in proglacial soil cores showing elevated levels of artificial radionuclides. The lithogenic radionuclides show less variability than the airborne radionuclides because their activity concentrations are controlled only by the mixing of material derived from the weathering of different parent rocks. Soil properties vary little within and between the profiles and there is no unequivocal relationship between them and the radionuclide contents. The inventories reflect the pathways and time variable inputs of soil material to particular sites of the proglacial zone. Lack of the airborne radionuclides reflects no deposition of material exposed to the atmosphere after the 1950s or its removal by erosion. Inventories above the direct atmospheric deposition indicate secondary deposition of radionuclide-bearing material. Very high inventories indicate sites where transport pathways of cryoconite material terminated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized Growth of Estuarine, Household and Clinical Isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

PubMed Central

Diaz, Kelly E.; Remold, Susanna K.; Onyiri, Ogochukwu; Bozeman, Maura; Raymond, Peter A.; Turner, Paul E.

2018-01-01

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen of particular concern to immune-compromised people, such as cystic fibrosis patients and burn victims. These bacteria grow in built environments including hospitals and households, and in natural environments such as rivers and estuaries. However, there is conflicting evidence whether recent environments like the human lung and open ocean affect P. aeruginosa growth performance in alternate environments. We hypothesized that bacteria recently isolated from dissimilar habitats should grow differently in media containing artificial versus natural resources. To test this idea, we examined growth of P. aeruginosa isolates from three environments (estuary, household, and clinic) in three media types: minimal-glucose lab medium, and media prepared from sugar maple leaves or big bluestem grass. We used automated spectrophotometry to measure high-resolution growth curves for all isolate by media combinations, and studied two fitness parameters: growth rate and maximum population density. Results showed high variability in growth rate among isolates, both overall and in its dependence on assay media, but this variability was not associated with habitat of isolation. In contrast, total growth (change in absorbance over the experiment) differed overall among habitats of isolation, and there were media-specific differences in mean total growth among habitats of isolation, and in among-habitat variability in the media-specific response. This was driven primarily by greater total growth of estuary isolates when compared with those from other habitats of origin, and greater media-specific variability among household isolates than those from other habitats of origin. Taken together, these results suggest that for growth rate P. aeruginosa bacteria appear to be broad generalists without regard to current or recent habitat, whereas for total growth a signature of recent ecological history can be detected. PMID:29599754

Making Inferences: Comprehension of Physical Causality, Intentionality, and Emotions in Discourse by High-Functioning Older Children, Adolescents, and Adults with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodner, Kimberly E.; Engelhardt, Christopher R.; Minshew, Nancy J.; Williams, Diane L.

2015-01-01

Studies investigating inferential reasoning in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have focused on the ability to make socially-related inferences or inferences more generally. Important variables for intervention planning such as whether inferences depend on physical experiences or the nature of social information have received less consideration. A…

Determinants of tree quality and lumber value in natural uneven-aged southern pine stands

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2000-01-01

An ordered-probit model was developed to predict tree grade from tree- and stand-level variables, some of which could be changed by management. Applied to uneven-aged mixed loblolly (Pinus taeda L.) - shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) stands, the model showed that the grade of pine trees was highly correlated with tree diameter...

Advances in the Development of a WCl6 CVD System for Coating UO2 Powders with Tungsten

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mireles, Omar R.; Tieman, Alyssa; Broadway, Jeramie; Hickman, Robert

2013-01-01

Demonstrated viability and utilization of: a) Fluidized powder bed. b) WCl6 CVD process. c) Coated spherical particles with tungsten. The highly corrosive nature of the WCl6 solid reagent limits material of construction. Indications that identifying optimized process variables with require substantial effort and will likely vary with changes in fuel requirements.

Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

Treesearch

David R. Montgomery; Kevin M. Schmidt; William E. Dietrich; Jim McKean

2009-01-01

The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium....

Evaluation of the reference unit method for herbaceous biomass estimation in native grasslands of southwestern South Dakota

Treesearch

Eric D. Boyda

2013-01-01

The high costs associated with physically harvesting plant biomass may prevent sufficient data collection, which is necessary to account for the natural variability of vegetation at a landscape scale. A biomass estimation technique was previously developed using representative samples or "reference units", which eliminated the need to harvest biomass from all...

Variability in vegetation and surface fuels across mixed-conifer-dominated landscapes with over 40 years of natural fire

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Jamie M. Lydersen; Danny L. Fry; Katherine Wilkin; Tadashi Moody; Scott L. Stephens

2016-01-01

Studies of historical fire and vegetation conditions in dry conifer forests have demonstrated a high degree of heterogeneity across landscapes. However, there is a limit to the amount of inference that can be drawn from historical fire reconstructions. Contemporary "reference" landscapes may be able to provide information that is not available from historical...

Allozyme variation of Port-Orford-Cedar (Chamaecyparis lawsoniana): implications for genetic conservation

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Kimberly A. Marshall

1991-01-01

Variation at 32 allozyme loci in nine disjunct populations of Part-Orford-cedar (POC) from the California floristic region was measured to estimate the amount and pattern of genetic variability in natural stands. Variation in electrophoretically detectable loci was moderately high, with mean number of alleles per locus = 1.9, 64.9% polymorphic loci, and observed...

Effect of advective flow in fractures and matrix diffusion on natural gas production

DOE PAGES

Karra, Satish; Makedonska, Nataliia; Viswanathan, Hari S.; ...

2015-10-12

Although hydraulic fracturing has been used for natural gas production for the past couple of decades, there are significant uncertainties about the underlying mechanisms behind the production curves that are seen in the field. A discrete fracture network based reservoir-scale work flow is used to identify the relative effect of flow of gas in fractures and matrix diffusion on the production curve. With realistic three dimensional representations of fracture network geometry and aperture variability, simulated production decline curves qualitatively resemble observed production decline curves. The high initial peak of the production curve is controlled by advective fracture flow of freemore » gas within the network and is sensitive to the fracture aperture variability. Matrix diffusion does not significantly affect the production decline curve in the first few years, but contributes to production after approximately 10 years. These results suggest that the initial flushing of gas-filled background fractures combined with highly heterogeneous flow paths to the production well are sufficient to explain observed initial production decline. Lastly, these results also suggest that matrix diffusion may support reduced production over longer time frames.« less

High taxonomic variability despite stable functional structure across microbial communities.

PubMed

Louca, Stilianos; Jacques, Saulo M S; Pires, Aliny P F; Leal, Juliana S; Srivastava, Diane S; Parfrey, Laura Wegener; Farjalla, Vinicius F; Doebeli, Michael

2016-12-05

Understanding the processes that are driving variation of natural microbial communities across space or time is a major challenge for ecologists. Environmental conditions strongly shape the metabolic function of microbial communities; however, other processes such as biotic interactions, random demographic drift or dispersal limitation may also influence community dynamics. The relative importance of these processes and their effects on community function remain largely unknown. To address this uncertainty, here we examined bacterial and archaeal communities in replicate 'miniature' aquatic ecosystems contained within the foliage of wild bromeliads. We used marker gene sequencing to infer the taxonomic composition within nine metabolic functional groups, and shotgun environmental DNA sequencing to estimate the relative abundances of these groups. We found that all of the bromeliads exhibited remarkably similar functional community structures, but that the taxonomic composition within individual functional groups was highly variable. Furthermore, using statistical analyses, we found that non-neutral processes, including environmental filtering and potentially biotic interactions, at least partly shaped the composition within functional groups and were more important than spatial dispersal limitation and demographic drift. Hence both the functional structure and taxonomic composition within functional groups of natural microbial communities may be shaped by non-neutral and roughly separate processes.

Natural turbidity variability and weather forecasts in risk management of anthropogenic sediment discharge near sensitive environments.

PubMed

Orpin, Alan R; Ridd, Peter V; Thomas, Séverine; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul; Oliver, Jamie

2004-10-01

Coastal development activities can cause local increases in turbidity and sedimentation. This study characterises the spatial and temporal variability of turbidity near an inshore fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, under a wide range of natural conditions. Based on the observed natural variability, we outline a risk management scheme to minimise the impact of construction-related turbidity increases. Comparison of control and impact sites proved unusable for real-time management of turbidity risks. Instead, we suggest using one standard deviation from ambient conditions as a possible conservative upper limit of an acceptable projected increase in turbidity. In addition, the use of regional weather forecast as a proxy for natural turbidity is assessed. This approach is simple and cheap but also has limitations in very rough conditions, when an anthropogenic turbidity increase could prove fatal to corals that are already stressed under natural conditions.

Spatial Variability of the Background Diurnal Cycle of Deep Convection around the GoAmazon2014/5 Field Campaign Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burleyson, Casey D.; Feng, Zhe; Hagos, Samson M.

The Amazon rainforest is one of a few regions of the world where continental tropical deep convection occurs. The Amazon’s isolation makes it challenging to observe, but also creates a unique natural laboratory to study anthropogenic impacts on clouds and precipitation in an otherwise pristine environment. Extensive measurements were made upwind and downwind of the large city of Manaus, Brazil during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon 2014-2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign. In this study, 15 years of high-resolution satellite data are analyzed to examine the spatial and diurnal variability of convection occurring around the GoAmazon2014/5 sites. Interpretationmore » of anthropogenic differences between the upwind (T0) and downwind (T1-T3) sites is complicated by naturally-occurring spatial variability between the sites. During the rainy season, the inland propagation of the previous day’s sea-breeze front happens to be in phase with the background diurnal cycle near Manaus, but is out of phase elsewhere. Enhanced convergence between the river-breezes and the easterly trade winds generates up to 10% more frequent deep convection at the GoAmazon2014/5 sites east of the river (T0a, T0t/k, and T1) compared to the T3 site which was located near the western bank. In general, the annual and diurnal cycles during 2014 were representative of the 2000-2013 distributions. The only exceptions were in March when the monthly mean rainrate was above the 95th percentile and September when both rain frequency and intensity were suppressed. The natural spatial variability must be accounted for before interpreting anthropogenically-induced differences among the GoAmazon2014/5 sites.« less

Improving preparedness of farmers to Climate Variability: A case study of Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swami, D.; Parthasarathy, D.; Dave, P.

2016-12-01

A key objective of the ongoing research is to understand the risk and vulnerability of agriculture and farming communities with respect to multiple climate change attributes, particularly monsoon variability and hydrology such as ground water availability. Climate Variability has always been a feature affecting Indian agriculture but the nature and characteristics of this variability is not well understood. Indian monsoon patterns are highly variable and most of the studies focus on larger domain such as Central India or Western coast (Ghosh et al., 2009) but district level analysis is missing i.e. the linkage between agriculture and climate variables at finer scale has not been investigated comprehensively. For example, Eastern Vidarbha region in Maharashtra is considered as one of the most agriculturally sensitive region in India, where every year a large number of farmers commit suicide. The main reasons for large number of suicides are climate related stressors such as droughts, hail storms, and monsoon variability aggravated with poor socio-economic conditions. Present study has tried to explore the areas in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra where famers and crop productivity, specifically cotton, sorghum, is highly vulnerable to monsoon variability, hydrological and socio-economic variables which are further modelled to determine the maximal contributing factor towards crops and farmers' vulnerability. After analysis using primary and secondary data, it will aid in decision making regarding field operations such as time of sowing, harvesting and irrigation requirements by optimizing the cropping pattern with climatic, hydrological and socio-economic variables. It also suggests the adaptation strategies to farmers regarding different types of cropping and water harvesting practices, optimized dates and timings for harvesting, sowing, water and nutrient requirements of particular crops according to the specific region. Primarily along with secondary analysis captured here can be highly beneficial for the farmers and policy makers while formulating agricultural policies related to climate change.

Examining the last few decades of global hydroclimate for evidence of anthropogenic change amidst natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Naik, N.; Ting, M.; Kushnir, Y.; Kelley, C. P.

2011-12-01

Climate models robustly predict that the deep tropics and mid-latitude-to-subpolar regions will moisten, and the subtropical dry zones both dry and expand, as a consequence of global warming driven by rising greenhouse gases. The models also predict that this transition to a more extreme climatological mean global hydroclimate should already be underway. Given the importance of these predictions it is an imperative that the climate science community assess whether there is evidence within the observational record that they are correct. This task is made difficult by the tremendous natural variability of the hydrological cycle on seasonal to multidecadal timescales. Here we will use instrumental observations, reanalyses, sea surface temperature forced atmosphere models and coupled model simulations, and a variety of methodologies, to attempt to separate global radiatively-forced hydroclimate change from ongoing natural variability. The results will be applied to explain trends and recent events in key regions such as Mexico, the United States and the Mediterranean. It is concluded that the signal of anthropogenic change is small compared to the amplitude of natural variability but that it is a discernible contributor. Globally the evidence reveals that radiatively-forced hydroclimate change is occurring with an amplitude and spatial pattern largely consistent with the predictions by IPCC AR4 models of hydroclimate change to date. However it will also be shown that the radiatively-forced component does not in and of itself provide a useful prediction of near term hydroclimate change because for many regions the amplitude of natural decadal variability is as large or larger. Useful predictions need to account for how natural variability may evolve as well as forced change.

Detection and Distribution of Natural Gaps in Tropical Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulamoussène, Y.; Linguet, L.; Hérault, B.

2014-12-01

Forest management is important to assess biodiversity and ecological processes. Requirements for disturbance information have also been motivated by the scientific community. Therefore, understanding and monitoring the distribution frequencies of treefall gaps is relevant to better understanding and predicting the carbon budget in response to global change and land use change. In this work we characterize and quantify the frequency distribution of natural canopy gaps. We observe then interaction between environment variables and gap formation across tropical rainforest of the French Guiana region by using high resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). We mapped gaps with canopy model distribution on 40000 ha of forest. We used a Bayesian modelling framework to estimate and select useful covariate model parameters. Topographic variables are included in a model to predict gap size distribution. We discuss results from the interaction between environment and gap size distribution, mainly topographic indexes. The use of both airborne and space-based techniques has improved our ability to supply needed disturbance information. This work is an approach at plot scale. The use of satellite data will allow us to work at forest scale. The inclusion of climate variables in our model will let us assess the impact of global change on tropical rainforest.

A fourth-order box method for solving the boundary layer equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wornom, S. F.

1977-01-01

A fourth order box method for calculating high accuracy numerical solutions to parabolic, partial differential equations in two variables or ordinary differential equations is presented. The method is the natural extension of the second order Keller Box scheme to fourth order and is demonstrated with application to the incompressible, laminar and turbulent boundary layer equations. Numerical results for high accuracy test cases show the method to be significantly faster than other higher order and second order methods.

Analysis of a Small Vigorous Mesoscale Convective System in a Low-Shear Environment. Pt. 1; Formation, Echo Structure and Lightning Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knupp, Kevin; Geerts, Bart; Goodman, Steven J.

1997-01-01

The precipitation output was highly variable due to the transient nature of the intense convective elements. This result is attributed to the high Richardson number (175) of the environment, which is much higher than that of the typical MCS environment. The development of the stratiform precipitation was accomplished locally (in situ), and not be advection of from the convective region. In situ charging of the stratiform region is also supported by the observations.

Fuel droplet burning rates at high pressures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canada, G. S.; Faeth, G. M.

1972-01-01

Combustion of methanol, ethanol, propanol -1, n - pentane, n - heptane and n - decane was observed in air under natural convection conditions at pressures up to 100 atm. The droplets were simulated by porous spheres with diameters in the range 0.63 - 1.90 cm. The pressure levels of the tests were high enough so that near critical combustion was observed for methanol and ethanol. Measurements were made of the burning rate and liquid surface temperatures of the fuels. The data were compared with variable property analysis of the combustion process, including a correction for natural convection. The burning rate predictions of the various theories were similar and in fair agreement with the data. The high pressure theory gave the best prediction for the liquid surface temperatures of ethanol and propanol -1 at high pressure. The experiments indicated the approach of critical burning conditions for methanol and ethanol at pressures on the order of 80 - 100 atm, which was in good agreement with the predictions of both the low and high pressure analysis.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max

2010-01-01

This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

High genetic diversity and connectivity in Colossoma macropomum in the Amazon basin revealed by microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Fazzi-Gomes, Paola; Guerreiro, Sávio; Palheta, Glauber David Almeida; Melo, Nuno Filipe Alves Correa de; Santos, Sidney; Hamoy, Igor

2017-01-01

Colossoma macropomum is the second largest scaled fish of the Amazon. It is economically important for commercial fisheries and for aquaculture, but few studies have examined the diversity and genetic structure of natural populations of this species. The aim of this study was to investigate the levels of genetic variability and connectivity that exist between three natural populations of C. macropomum from the Amazon basin. In total, 247 samples were collected from the municipalities of Tefé, Manaus, and Santarém. The populations were genotyped using a panel of 12 multiplex microsatellite markers. The genetic diversity found in these populations was high and similar to other populations described in the literature. These populations showed a pattern of high gene flow associated with the lack of a genetic structure pattern, indicating that the number of migrants per generation and recent migration rates are high. The values of the FST, RST, and exact test of differentiation were not significant for pairwise comparisons between populations. The Bayesian population clustering analysis indicated a single population. Thus, the data provide evidence for high genetic diversity and high gene flow among C. macropomum populations in the investigated region of the Amazon basin. This information is important for programs aiming at the conservation of natural populations.

High genetic diversity and connectivity in Colossoma macropomum in the Amazon basin revealed by microsatellite markers

PubMed Central

Fazzi-Gomes, Paola; Guerreiro, Sávio; Palheta, Glauber David Almeida; de Melo, Nuno Filipe Alves Correa; Santos, Sidney; Hamoy, Igor

2017-01-01

Abstract Colossoma macropomum is the second largest scaled fish of the Amazon. It is economically important for commercial fisheries and for aquaculture, but few studies have examined the diversity and genetic structure of natural populations of this species. The aim of this study was to investigate the levels of genetic variability and connectivity that exist between three natural populations of C. macropomum from the Amazon basin. In total, 247 samples were collected from the municipalities of Tefé, Manaus, and Santarém. The populations were genotyped using a panel of 12 multiplex microsatellite markers. The genetic diversity found in these populations was high and similar to other populations described in the literature. These populations showed a pattern of high gene flow associated with the lack of a genetic structure pattern, indicating that the number of migrants per generation and recent migration rates are high. The values of the FST, RST, and exact test of differentiation were not significant for pairwise comparisons between populations. The Bayesian population clustering analysis indicated a single population. Thus, the data provide evidence for high genetic diversity and high gene flow among C. macropomum populations in the investigated region of the Amazon basin. This information is important for programs aiming at the conservation of natural populations. PMID:28170026

Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: A case study from Glacier National Park, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Gray, Stephen T.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Graumlich, Lisa J.

2006-01-01

Using a suite of paleoproxy reconstructions and information from previous studies examining the relationship between climate variability and natural processes, the authors explore how such persistent moisture anomalies affect the delivery of vital goods and services provided by Glacier NP and surrounding areas. These analyses show that regional water resources and tourism are particularly vulnerable to persistent moisture anomalies in the Glacier NP area. Many of these same decadal-scale wet and dry events were also seen among a wider network of hydroclimatic reconstructions along a north–south transect of the Rocky Mountains. Such natural climate variability can, in turn, have enormous impacts on the sustainable provision of natural resources over wide areas. Overall, these results highlight the susceptibility of goods and services provided by protected areas like Glacier NP to natural climate variability, and show that this susceptibility will likely be compounded by the effects of future human-induced climate change.

Global warming: it's not only size that matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2011-09-01

Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact ecosystems and society more than slow, gradual ones. Also, is it really the mean seasonal temperature that counts, or should the focus change to extremes (see Hegerl et al 2011b)? Is seasonal mean exceedance of the prior temperature envelope a good and robust measure that also reflects these other, more complex diagnostics? Lots of food for thought and research! References Allen M R and Tett S F B 1999 Checking for model consistency in optimal finger printing Clim. Dyn. 15 419-34 Hall A 2004 The role of surface albedo feedback in climate J. Clim. 17 1550-68 Hasselmann K 1979 On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies Meteorology of Tropical Oceans ed D B Shaw (Bracknell: Royal Meteorological Society) pp 251-9 Hegerl G C, Luterbacher J, Gonzalez-Ruoco F, Tett S F B and Xoplaki E 2011a Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures Nature Geoscience 4 99-103 Hegerl G, Hanlon H and Beierkuhnlein C 2011b Climate science: elusive extremes Nature Geoscience 4 142-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed M L Parry, O F Canziani, J P Palutikof, P J van der Linden and C E Hanson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Jansen E et al 2007 Palaeoclimate Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Luterbacher J et al 2004 European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500 Science 303 1499-503 Mahlstein I, Knutti R, Solomon S and Portmann R W 2011 Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034009

Antarctic Climate Variability: Covariance of Ozone and Sea Ice in Atmosphere - Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jrrar, Amna; Abraham, N. Luke; Pyle, John A.; Holland, David

2014-05-01

Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and insulating nature. While Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) shows a negative trend. Antarctic SIE shows a weak but positive trend, estimated at 0.127 x 106 km2 per decade. The trend results from large regional cancellations, more ice in the Weddell and the Ross seas, and less ice in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen seas. A number of studies had demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion has had a major impact on the atmospheric circulation, causing a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has been linked to the observed positive trend in autumn sea ice in the Ross Sea. However, other modelling studies show that models forced with prescribed ozone hole simulate decreased sea ice in all regions comparative to a control run. A recent study has also shown that stratospheric ozone recovery will mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss. To verify this assumed relationship, it is important first to investigate the covariance between ozone's natural (dynamical) variability and Antarctic sea ice distribution in pre-industrial climate, to estimate the trend due to natural variability. We investigate the relationship between anomalous Antarctic ozone years and the subsequent changes in Antarctic sea ice distribution in a multidecadal control simulation using the AO-UMUKCA model. The model has a horizontal resolution of 3.75 X 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude; and 60 hybrid height levels in the vertical, from the surface up to a height of 84 km. The ocean component is the NEMO ocean model on the ORCA2 tripolar grid, and the sea ice model is CICE. We evaluate the model's performance in terms of sea ice distribution, and we calculate sea ice extent trends for composites of anomalously low versus anomalously high SH polar ozone column. We apply EOF analysis to the seasonal anomalies of sea ice concentration, MSLP, and Z 500, and identify the leading climate modes controlling the variability of Antarctic sea ice in each case, and study their relationship with SH polar ozone column.

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-05-01

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.