Global Gradients of Coral Exposure to Environmental Stresses and Implications for Local Management

PubMed Central

Maina, Joseph; McClanahan, Tim R.; Venus, Valentijn; Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Madin, Joshua

2011-01-01

Background The decline of coral reefs globally underscores the need for a spatial assessment of their exposure to multiple environmental stressors to estimate vulnerability and evaluate potential counter-measures. Methodology/Principal Findings This study combined global spatial gradients of coral exposure to radiation stress factors (temperature, UV light and doldrums), stress-reinforcing factors (sedimentation and eutrophication), and stress-reducing factors (temperature variability and tidal amplitude) to produce a global map of coral exposure and identify areas where exposure depends on factors that can be locally managed. A systems analytical approach was used to define interactions between radiation stress variables, stress reinforcing variables and stress reducing variables. Fuzzy logic and spatial ordinations were employed to quantify coral exposure to these stressors. Globally, corals are exposed to radiation and reinforcing stress, albeit with high spatial variability within regions. Based on ordination of exposure grades, regions group into two clusters. The first cluster was composed of severely exposed regions with high radiation and low reducing stress scores (South East Asia, Micronesia, Eastern Pacific and the central Indian Ocean) or alternatively high reinforcing stress scores (the Middle East and the Western Australia). The second cluster was composed of moderately to highly exposed regions with moderate to high scores in both radiation and reducing factors (Caribbean, Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Central Pacific, Polynesia and the western Indian Ocean) where the GBR was strongly associated with reinforcing stress. Conclusions/Significance Despite radiation stress being the most dominant stressor, the exposure of coral reefs could be reduced by locally managing chronic human impacts that act to reinforce radiation stress. Future research and management efforts should focus on incorporating the factors that mitigate the effect of coral stressors until long-term carbon reductions are achieved through global negotiations. PMID:21860667

Estimating historical groundwater levels based on relations with hydrologic and meteorological variables in the U.S. glacial aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; Nielsen, M. G.; Qi, S. L.

2018-07-01

A number of previous studies have examined relations between groundwater levels and hydrologic and meteorological variables over parts of the glacial aquifer system, but systematic analyses across the entire U.S. glacial aquifer system are lacking. We tested correlations between monthly groundwater levels measured at 1043 wells in the U.S. glacial aquifer system considered to be minimally influenced by human disturbance and selected hydrologic and meteorological variables with the goal of extending historical groundwater records where there were strong correlations. Groundwater levels in the East region correlated most strongly with short-term (1 and 3 month) averages of hydrologic and meteorological variables, while those in the Central and West Central regions yielded stronger correlations with hydrologic and meteorological variables averaged over longer time intervals (6-12 months). Variables strongly correlated with high and low annual groundwater levels were identified as candidate records for use in statistical linear models as a means to fill in and extend historical high and low groundwater levels respectively. Overall, 37.4% of study wells meeting data criteria had successful models for high and (or) low groundwater levels; these wells shared characteristics of relatively higher local precipitation, higher local land-surface slope, lower amounts of clay within the surficial sediments, and higher base-flow index. Streamflow and base flow served as explanatory variables in about two thirds of both high- and low-groundwater-level models in all three regions, and generally yielded more and better models compared to precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index. The use of variables such as streamflow with substantially longer and more complete records than those of groundwater wells provide a means for placing contemporary groundwater levels in a longer historical context and can support site-specific analyses such as groundwater modeling.

Constraining regional scale carbon budgets at the US West Coast using a high-resolution atmospheric inverse modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goeckede, M.; Michalak, A. M.; Vickers, D.; Turner, D.; Law, B.

2009-04-01

The study presented is embedded within the NACP (North American Carbon Program) West Coast project ORCA2, which aims at determining the regional carbon balance of the US states Oregon, California and Washington. Our work specifically focuses on the effect of disturbance history and climate variability, aiming at improving our understanding of e.g. drought stress and stand age on carbon sources and sinks in complex terrain with fine-scale variability in land cover types. The ORCA2 atmospheric inverse modeling approach has been set up to capture flux variability on the regional scale at high temporal and spatial resolution. Atmospheric transport is simulated coupling the mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) with the STILT (Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport) footprint model. This setup allows identifying sources and sinks that influence atmospheric observations with highly resolved mass transport fields and realistic turbulent mixing. Terrestrial biosphere carbon fluxes are simulated at spatial resolutions of up to 1km and subdaily timesteps, considering effects of ecoregion, land cover type and disturbance regime on the carbon budgets. Our approach assimilates high-precision atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements and eddy-covariance data from several sites throughout the model domain, as well as high-resolution remote sensing products (e.g. LandSat, MODIS) and interpolated surface meteorology (DayMet, SOGS, PRISM). We present top-down modeling results that have been optimized using Bayesian inversion, reflecting the information on regional scale carbon processes provided by the network of high-precision CO2 observations. We address the level of detail (e.g. spatial and temporal resolution) that can be resolved by top-down modeling on the regional scale, given the uncertainties introduced by various sources for model-data mismatch. Our results demonstrate the importance of accurate modeling of carbon-water coupling, with the representation of water availability and drought stress playing a dominant role to capture spatially variable CO2 exchange rates in a region characterized by strong climatic gradients.

Sub-annual North Pacific hydroclimate variability since 1450AD from updated St. Elias ice core isotope and accumulation rate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreutz, K. J.; Campbell, S. W.; Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kochtitzky, W. H.; Copland, L.; Dixon, D.; Introne, D.; Medrzycka, D.; Main, B.; Bernsen, S.; Wake, C. P.

2017-12-01

A growing array of high-resolution paleoclimate records from the terrestrial region bordering the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) continues to reveal details about ocean-atmosphere variability in the region during the Common Era. Ice core records from high-elevation ranges in proximity to the GoA provide key information on extratropical hydroclimate, and potential teleconnections to low latitude regions. In particular, stable water isotope and snow accumulation reconstructions from ice cores collected in high precipitation locations are uniquely tied to regional water cycle changes. Here we present new data collected in 2016 and 2017 from the St. Elias Mountains (Eclipse Icefield, Yukon Territories, Canada), including a range of ice core and geophysical measurements. Low- and high-frequency ice penetrating radar data enable detailed mapping of icefield bedrock topography and internal reflector stratigraphy. The 1911 Katmai eruption layer can be clearly traced across the icefield, and tied definitively to the coeval ash layer found in the 345 meter ice core drilled at Eclipse Icefield in 2002. High-resolution radar data are used to map spatial variability in 2015/16 and 2016/17 snow accumulation. Ice velocity data from repeat GPS stake measurements and remote sensing feature tracking reveal a clear divide flow regime on the icefield. Shallow firn/ice cores (20 meters in 2017 and 65 meters in 2016) are used to update the 345 meter ice core drilled at Eclipse Icefield in 2002. We use new algorithm-based layer counting software to improve and provide error estimates on the new ice core chronology, which extends from 2017 to 1450AD. 3D finite element modeling, incorporating all available geophysical data, is used to refine the reconstructed accumulation rate record and account for vertical and horizontal ice flow. Together with high-resolution stable water isotope data, the updated Eclipse record provides detailed, sub-annual resolution data on several aspects of the regional water cycle (e.g., accumulation/precipitation, moisture source and trajectory, coupled ocean/atmosphere variability). We compare the updated Eclipse record with other data in the North Pacific region, including the new Denali 1200-year ice core datasets, to assess regional hydroclimate variability during the Common Era.

Comparative Genome Analysis of Ciprofloxacin-Resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa Reveals Genes Within Newly Identified High Variability Regions Associated With Drug Resistance Development

PubMed Central

Su, Hsun-Cheng; Khatun, Jainab; Kanavy, Dona M.

2013-01-01

The alarming rise of ciprofloxacin-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa has been reported in several clinical studies. Though the mutation of resistance genes and their role in drug resistance has been researched, the process by which the bacterium acquires high-level resistance is still not well understood. How does the genomic evolution of P. aeruginosa affect resistance development? Could the exposure of antibiotics to the bacteria enrich genomic variants that lead to the development of resistance, and if so, how are these variants distributed through the genome? To answer these questions, we performed 454 pyrosequencing and a whole genome analysis both before and after exposure to ciprofloxacin. The comparative sequence data revealed 93 unique resistance strain variation sites, which included a mutation in the DNA gyrase subunit A gene. We generated variation-distribution maps comparing the wild and resistant types, and isolated 19 candidates from three discrete resistance-associated high variability regions that had available transposon mutants, to perform a ciprofloxacin exposure assay. Of these region candidates with transposon disruptions, 79% (15/19) showed a reduction in the ability to gain high-level resistance, suggesting that genes within these high variability regions might enrich for certain functions associated with resistance development. PMID:23808957

The Importance of Freshwater to Spatial Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siedlecki, Samantha A.; Pilcher, Darren J.; Hermann, Albert J.; Coyle, Ken; Mathis, Jeremy

2017-11-01

High-latitude and subpolar regions like the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are more vulnerable than equatorial regions to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, in part due to local processes that amplify the global signal. Recent field observations have shown that the shelf of the GOA is currently experiencing seasonal corrosive events (carbonate mineral saturation states Ω, Ω < 1), including suppressed Ω in response to ocean acidification as well as local processes like increased low-alkalinity glacial meltwater discharge. While the glacial discharge mainly influences the inner shelf, on the outer shelf, upwelling brings corrosive waters from the deep GOA. In this work, we develop a high-resolution model for carbon dynamics in the GOA, identify regions of high variability of Ω, and test the sensitivity of those regions to changes in the chemistry of glacial meltwater discharge. Results indicate the importance of this climatically sensitive and relatively unconstrained regional freshwater forcing for Ω variability in the nearshore. The increase was nearly linear at 0.002 Ω per 100 µmol/kg increase in alkalinity in the freshwater runoff. We find that the local winds, biological processes, and freshwater forcing all contribute to the spatial distribution of Ω and identify which of these three is highly correlated to the variability in Ω. Given that the timing and magnitude of these processes will likely change during the next few decades, it is critical to elucidate the effect of local processes on the background ocean acidification signal using robust models, such as the one described here.

Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio-economic conditions across the study regions. Despite access to groundwater irrigation, crop cover in the western Indian study region showed substantial fluctuations during monsoon, probably due to changing planting strategies. This region is less sensitive to precipitation compared to the central Indian study region with predominantly climate-dependent irrigation from surface water. In western Indian study region a greater number of rainy days, increased intensity of rainfall, and cooler daytime and nighttime temperatures lead to increased crop cover during monsoon season, compared to in the central Indian study region where monsoon timing and amount of total rainfall are the most important factors of crop cover. Our findings indicate that different regions respond differently to climate, since socio-economic factors, such as irrigation access, market influences, demography, and policies play critical role in agricultural production. In the wake of projected precipitation and temperature changes, better access to irrigation and heat-tolerant high-yielding crop varieties will be crucial for future food production.

Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.

1999-01-01

This paper presents a detailed characterization of seasonal and interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different zonal characteristics related to seasonal and interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Results show that in both the eastern and western Pacific seasonal-cycle variability of northern hemisphere (NH) TCO exhibits maximum amount during NH spring whereas largest amount in southern hemisphere (SH) TCO occurs during SH spring. In the Atlantic, maximum TCO in both hemispheres occurs in SH spring. These seasonal cycles are shown to be comparable to seasonal cycles present in ground-based ozonesonde measurements. Interannual variability in the Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal that is out of phase with the QBO present in stratospheric column ozone (SCO). This is consistent with high pollution and high concentrations of mid-to-upper tropospheric O3-producing precursors in this region. The out of phase relation suggests a UV modulation of tropospheric photochemistry caused by the QBO in stratospheric O3. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport of low-value boundary layer O3 (reducing TCO) and O3 precursors including H2O and OH. A simplified technique is proposed to derive high-resolution maps of TCO in the tropics even in the absence of tropopause-level clouds. This promising approach requires only total ozone gridded measurements and utilizes the small variability observed in TCO near the dateline. This technique has an advantage compared to the CCD method because the latter requires high-resolution footprint measurements of both reflectivity and total ozone in the presence of tropopause-level cloud tops.

Space-Time Variability in River Flow Regimes of Northeast Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saris, F.; Hannah, D. M.; Eastwood, W. J.

2011-12-01

The northeast region of Turkey is characterised by relatively high annual precipitation totals and river flow. It is a mountainous region with high ecological status and also it is of prime interest to the energy sector. These characteristics make this region an important area for a hydroclimatology research in terms of future availability and management of water resources. However, there is not any previous research identifying hydroclimatological variability across the region. This study provides first comprehensive and detailed information on river flow regimes of northeast Turkey which is delimited by two major river basins namely East Black Sea (EBS) and Çoruh River (ÇRB) basins. A novel river flow classification is used that yields a large-scale perspective on hydroclimatology patterns of the region and allows interpretations regarding the controlling factors on river flow variability. River flow regimes are classified (with respect to timing and magnitude of flow) to examine spatial variability based on long-term average regimes, and also by grouping annual regimes for each station-year to identify temporal (between-year) variability. Results indicate that rivers in northeast Turkey are characterised by marked seasonal flow variation with an April-May-June maximum flow period. Spatial variability in flow regime seasonality is dependent largely on the topography of the study area. The EBS Basin, for which the North Anatolian Mountains cover the eastern part, is characterised by a May-June peak; whereas the ÇRB is defined by an April-May flow peak. The timing of river flows indicates that snowmelt is an important process and contributor of river flow maxima for both basins. The low flow season is January and February. Intermediate and low regime magnitude classes dominate in ÇRB and EBS basins, respectively, while high flow magnitude class is observed for one station only across the region. Result of regime stability analysis (year-to-year variation) shows that April-May and May-June peak shape classes together with low and intermediate magnitude classes are the most frequent and persistent flow regimes. This research has advanced understanding of hydroclimatological processes in northeast Turkey by identifying river flow regimes and together with explanations regarding the controlling factors on river flow variability.

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

Remote Sensing of Particulate Organic Carbon Pools in the High-Latitude Oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stramski, Dariusz; Stramska, Malgorzata

2005-01-01

The general goal of this project was to characterize spatial distributions at basin scales and variability on monthly to interannual timescales of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the high-latitude oceans. The primary objectives were: (1) To collect in situ data in the north polar waters of the Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, necessary for the derivation of POC ocean color algorithms for these regions. (2) To derive regional POC algorithms and refine existing regional chlorophyll (Chl) algorithms, to develop understanding of processes that control bio-optical relationships underlying ocean color algorithms for POC and Chl, and to explain bio-optical differentiation between the examined polar regions and within the regions. (3) To determine basin-scale spatial patterns and temporal variability on monthly to interannual scales in satellite-derived estimates of POC and Chl pools in the investigated regions for the period of time covered by SeaWiFS and MODIS missions.

Mechanisms of the 40-70 Day Variability in the Yucatan Channel Volume Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, René M.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Klees, Roland; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Slobbe, D. Cornelis; van der Boog, Carine G.; Katsman, Caroline A.; Candy, Adam S.; Pietrzak, Julie D.; Zijlema, Marcel; James, Rebecca K.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2018-02-01

The Yucatan Channel connects the Caribbean Sea with the Gulf of Mexico and is the main outflow region of the Caribbean Sea. Moorings in the Yucatan Channel show high-frequent variability in kinetic energy (50-100 days) and transport (20-40 days), but the physical mechanisms controlling this variability are poorly understood. In this study, we show that the short-term variability in the Yucatan Channel transport has an upstream origin and arises from processes in the North Brazil Current. To establish this connection, we use data from altimetry and model output from several high resolution global models. A significant 40-70 day variability is found in the sea surface height in the North Brazil Current retroflection region with a propagation toward the Lesser Antilles. The frequency of variability is generated by intrinsic processes associated with the shedding of eddies, rather than by atmospheric forcing. This sea surface height variability is able to pass the Lesser Antilles, it propagates westward with the background ocean flow in the Caribbean Sea and finally affects the variability in the Yucatan Channel volume transport.

Constancy despite variability: Local and regional macrofaunal diversity in intertidal seagrass beds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyé, Aurélien; Legendre, Pierre; Grall, Jacques; Gauthier, Olivier

2017-12-01

The importance of seagrass habitat for the diversity of benthic fauna has been extensively studied worldwide. Most of the information available is, however, about α diversity while little consideration has been given to β diversity. To fill the knowledge gaps regarding the variability of epifaunal and infaunal seagrass assemblages at large spatial and temporal scales, we scrutinized an extensive dataset covering five years of monitoring of eight intertidal Zostera marina meadows around Brittany (France). High species richness arose at the regional scale from the combination of high local diversity of the meadows and substantial among-meadows β diversity. Epifauna and infauna appeared as distinct self-communities as they displayed different spatial and temporal patterns and varied in their responses to local hydrological conditions. Infauna had higher total β diversity than epifauna due to a tighter link to the great variability of local environmental conditions in the region. Both exhibited substantial variations in species composition and community structure with variations of dominant species that were accompanied by extensive change in numerous rare species. The dominant epifaunal species were all grazers. Changes in species composition were induced mostly by species replacement and rarely by richness differences between meadows. Indeed, species richness remained within a narrow range for all seagrass beds, suggesting a potential carrying capacity for species richness of the meadows. Overall, all meadows contributed equally to the regional turnover of seagrass macrofauna, emphasizing high variability and complementarity among beds at the regional scale. The implications of this substantial within-seagrass variability for the functioning of benthic ecosystems at broad scale and for conservation purposes in habitat mosaics warrant further investigations but our results clearly advocate taking into account within-habitat variation when evaluating the diversity of benthic habitats and the potential effect of habitat loss.

North Atlantic Origin of Interdecadal variability of Siberian High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seon-Hwa; Sung, Mi-Kyung; Kim, Baek-Min

2017-04-01

We suggest that the changes in the mean atmospheric circulation structure in the North Atlantic Ocean upstream region of Eurasian continent play an important role in the interdecadal variability of Siberian High (SH) through the modulation of Ural blocking frequency. Previous studies suggested that the interdecadal variability of SH is partly explained by the Arctic Oscillation. However, in this study, we emphasize the role of 'Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia (WACE)', which is the second mode of winter surface air temperature variability over Eurasia. We show that the correlation between SH and WACE is high in general compared to that between SH and AO. However, the correlation between SH and WACE does not always exhibit high constant value. It shows a distinctive interdecadal fluctuation in the correlation. We found that this fluctuation in the correlation is due to the interdecadal fluctuation of the continental trough over the North Atlantic and the resultant strengthening of in-situ atmospheric baroclinicity. This accompanies changes in the transient vorticity flux divergence which leads to the downstream wave development and anomalous anticyclonic flow near Ural region. Obviously, the existence of anticyclonic flow over Ural region helps more frequent occurrence of Ural blocking and it is shown that this condition favors positive WACE event, which links to an intensified SH.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

NATURAL AND ATHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

EPA Science Inventory

New England weather is highly variable for a number of
reasons. Our regional climate is also quite variable. The
winters of the past decade are milder than they were in the
1960s and 1970s but as the ice-out and snowfall data show
(Figs 2.5 and 2.6), the patterns of c...

Transposon Insertions, Structural Variations, and SNPs Contribute to the Evolution of the Melon Genome.

PubMed

Sanseverino, Walter; Hénaff, Elizabeth; Vives, Cristina; Pinosio, Sara; Burgos-Paz, William; Morgante, Michele; Ramos-Onsins, Sebastián E; Garcia-Mas, Jordi; Casacuberta, Josep Maria

2015-10-01

The availability of extensive databases of crop genome sequences should allow analysis of crop variability at an unprecedented scale, which should have an important impact in plant breeding. However, up to now the analysis of genetic variability at the whole-genome scale has been mainly restricted to single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This is a strong limitation as structural variation (SV) and transposon insertion polymorphisms are frequent in plant species and have had an important mutational role in crop domestication and breeding. Here, we present the first comprehensive analysis of melon genetic diversity, which includes a detailed analysis of SNPs, SV, and transposon insertion polymorphisms. The variability found among seven melon varieties representing the species diversity and including wild accessions and highly breed lines, is relatively high due in part to the marked divergence of some lineages. The diversity is distributed nonuniformly across the genome, being lower at the extremes of the chromosomes and higher in the pericentromeric regions, which is compatible with the effect of purifying selection and recombination forces over functional regions. Additionally, this variability is greatly reduced among elite varieties, probably due to selection during breeding. We have found some chromosomal regions showing a high differentiation of the elite varieties versus the rest, which could be considered as strongly selected candidate regions. Our data also suggest that transposons and SV may be at the origin of an important fraction of the variability in melon, which highlights the importance of analyzing all types of genetic variability to understand crop genome evolution. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

2017-04-01

Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments in terms of regional and large-scale climate variability during the past.

Calibration and validation of CSM-CROPGRO-cotton model using lysimeter data in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains (THP) is one of the most important food and fiber producing regions in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, currently facing rapid decline of groundwater levels. Predicated climate extremes and high temporal variability in growing season precipitation in the future may demand growers t...

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; McMichael, Anthony J; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-05-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (b=0.15, p-value<0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (b=-1.03, p-value=0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Spatialization of Brazilian pig production: relationship between productive, physical, environmental, and socio-economic variables.

PubMed

da Silva, Isabel C M; Bremm, Bárbara; Teixeira, Jennifer L; Costa, Nathalia S; Barcellos, Júlio O J; Braccini, José; Cesconeto, Robson J; McManus, Concepta

2017-06-01

Brazilian pig production spans over a large territory encompassing regions of different climatic and socio-economic realities. Production, physical, socio-economic, and environmental data were used to characterize pig production in the country. Multivariate analysis evaluated indices including number productivity, production levels, and income from pigs, together with the average area of pig farm and socio-economic variables such as municipal human development index, technical guidance received from agricultural cooperatives and industrial companies, number of family farms, and offtake; and finally, environmental variables: latitude, longitude, annual temperature range, solar radiation index, as well as temperature and humidity index. The Southern region has the largest herd, number of pigs sold/sow, and offtake rate (p < 0.05), followed by the Midwest and Southeast. No significant correlations were seen between production rates and productivity with the socio-economic and environmental variables in the regions of Brazil. Production indexes, productivity, and offtake rate discriminated Northeast and Midwest and Northeast and Southeast regions. The Northern region, with a large area, has few and far-between farms that rear pigs for subsistence. The Northeast region has large herds, but low productivity. Number of slaughtered pigs has been variable over the past three decades, with few states responsible for maintaining high production in Brazil. However, the activity can be effective in any region of the country with technology and technical assistance adapted to regional characteristics.

Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O' Riordan, Michael; Pe'er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C.

2017-07-01

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ-ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Convective System in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, A. E.; Jablonowski, C.

2017-12-01

Warm season precipitation over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) follows a well observed diurnal pattern of variability, peaking at night-time, due to the eastward propagation of mesoscale convection systems that develop over the eastern slopes of the Rockies in the late afternoon. While most climate models are unable to adequately capture the organization of convection and characteristic pattern of precipitation over this region, models with high enough resolution to explicitly resolve convection show improvement. However, high resolution simulations are computationally expensive and, in the case of regional climate models, are subject to boundary conditions. Newly developed variable resolution global climate models strike a balance between the benefits of high-resolution regional climate models and the large-scale dynamics of global climate models and low computational cost. Recently developed parameterizations that are insensitive to the model grid scale provide a way to improve model performance. Here, we present an evaluation of the newly available Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization scheme in a suite of variable-resolution CESM simulations with resolutions ranging from 110 km to 7 km within a regionally refined region centered over the SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Simulations utilize the hindcast approach developed by the Department of Energy's Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) for the assessment of climate models. We limit our evaluation to a single mesoscale convective system that passed over the region on May 24, 2008. The effects of grid-resolution on the timing and intensity of precipitation, as well as, on the transition from shallow to deep convection are assessed against ground-based observations from the SGP ARM site, satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis.

Analysis of the relationship between community characteristics and depression using geographically weighted regression.

PubMed

Choi, Hyungyun; Kim, Ho

2017-01-01

Achieving national health equity is currently a pressing issue. Large regional variations in the health determinants are observed. Depression, one of the most common mental disorders, has large variations in incidence among different populations, and thus must be regionally analyzed. The present study aimed at analyzing regional disparities in depressive symptoms and identifying the health determinants that require regional interventions. Using health indicators of depression in the Korea Community Health Survey 2011 and 2013, the Moran's I was calculated for each variable to assess spatial autocorrelation, and a validated geographically weighted regression analysis using ArcGIS version 10.1 of different domains: health behavior, morbidity, and the social and physical environments were created, and the final model included a combination of significant variables in these models. In the health behavior domain, the weekly breakfast intake frequency of 1-2 times was the most significantly correlated with depression in all regions, followed by exposure to secondhand smoke and the level of perceived stress in some regions. In the morbidity domain, the rate of lifetime diagnosis of myocardial infarction was the most significantly correlated with depression. In the social and physical environment domain, the trust environment within the local community was highly correlated with depression, showing that lower the level of trust, higher was the level of depression. A final model was constructed and analyzed using highly influential variables from each domain. The models were divided into two groups according to the significance of correlation of each variable with the experience of depression symptoms. The indicators of the regional health status are significantly associated with the incidence of depressive symptoms within a region. The significance of this correlation varied across regions.

Obliquity Variations of Habitable Zone Planets Kepler-62f and Kepler-186f

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Yutong; Li, Gongjie

2018-06-01

Obliquity variability could play an important role in the climate and habitability of a planet. Orbital modulations caused by planetary companions and the planet’s spin axis precession due to the torque from the host star may lead to resonant interactions and cause large-amplitude obliquity variability. Here we consider the spin axis dynamics of Kepler-62f and Kepler-186f, both of which reside in the habitable zone around their host stars. Using N-body simulations and secular numerical integrations, we describe their obliquity evolution for particular realizations of the planetary systems. We then use a generalized analytic framework to characterize regions in parameter space where the obliquity is variable with large amplitude. We find that the locations of variability are fine-tuned over the planetary properties and system architecture in the lower-obliquity regimes (≲40°). As an example, assuming a rotation period of 24 hr, the obliquities of both Kepler-62f and Kepler-186f are stable below ∼40°, whereas the high-obliquity regions (60°–90°) allow moderate variabilities. However, for some other rotation periods of Kepler-62f or Kepler-186f, the lower-obliquity regions could become more variable owing to resonant interactions. Even small deviations from coplanarity (e.g., mutual inclinations ∼3°) could stir peak-to-peak obliquity variations up to ∼20°. Undetected planetary companions and/or the existence of a satellite could also destabilize the low-obliquity regions. In all cases, the high-obliquity region allows for moderate variations, and all obliquities corresponding to retrograde motion (i.e., >90°) are stable.

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julia; Dong, Jinwei; Kato, Etsushi; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Stocker, Benjamin D.

2016-12-01

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Multi-region statistical shape model for cochlear implantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romera, Jordi; Kjer, H. Martin; Piella, Gemma; Ceresa, Mario; González Ballester, Miguel A.

2016-03-01

Statistical shape models are commonly used to analyze the variability between similar anatomical structures and their use is established as a tool for analysis and segmentation of medical images. However, using a global model to capture the variability of complex structures is not enough to achieve the best results. The complexity of a proper global model increases even more when the amount of data available is limited to a small number of datasets. Typically, the anatomical variability between structures is associated to the variability of their physiological regions. In this paper, a complete pipeline is proposed for building a multi-region statistical shape model to study the entire variability from locally identified physiological regions of the inner ear. The proposed model, which is based on an extension of the Point Distribution Model (PDM), is built for a training set of 17 high-resolution images (24.5 μm voxels) of the inner ear. The model is evaluated according to its generalization ability and specificity. The results are compared with the ones of a global model built directly using the standard PDM approach. The evaluation results suggest that better accuracy can be achieved using a regional modeling of the inner ear.

Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

Precipitation recycling as a mechanism for ecoclimatological stability through local and non-local interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina

This study is the first to analyze the mechanisms that drive precipitation recycling variability at the daily to intraseasonal timescale. A new Dynamic Precipitation Recycling model is developed which, unlike previous models, includes the moisture storage term in the equation of conservation of atmospheric moisture. As shown using scaling analysis, the moisture storage term is non-negligible at small time scales, so the new model enables us to analyze precipitation recycling variability at shorter timescales than traditional models. The daily to intraseasonal analysis enables us to uncover key relationships between recycling and the moisture and energy fluxes. In the second phase of this work, a spatiotemporal analysis of daily precipitation recycling is performed over two regions of North America: the Midwestern United States, and the North American Monsoon System (NAMS) region. These regions were chosen because they present contrasting land-atmosphere interactions. Different physical mechanisms drive precipitation recycling in each region. In the Midwestern United States, evapotranspiration is not significantly affected by soil moisture anomalies, and there is a high recycling ratio during periods of reduced total precipitation. The reason is that, during periods of drier atmospheric conditions, transpiration will continue to provide moisture to the overlying atmosphere and contribute to total rainfall. Consequently, precipitation recycling variability in not driven by changes in evapotranspiration. Precipitable water, sensible heat and moisture fluxes are the main drivers of recycling variability in the Midwest. However, the drier soil moisture conditions over the NAMS region limit evapotranspiration, which will drive recycling variability. In this region, evapotranspiration becomes an important contribution to precipitation after Monsoon onset when total precipitation and evapotranspiration are highest. The precipitation recycling process in the NAMS region relocates moisture from regions of high evapotranspiration like the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mexico to drier regions downwind. During long monsoons, when soil moisture is abundant for a prolonged period of time, precipitation recycling significantly contributes to precipitation during periods of reduced total rainfall. In both the moisture abundant Midwestern region and the drier NAMS region, precipitation recycling plays an important role in maintaining a favorable hydroclimatological environment for vegetation.

LANDSCAPE CHARACTERISTICS AND HIGH STREAM NITROGEN IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE: RED ALDER COMPLICATES USE OF NUTRIENT CRITERIA

EPA Science Inventory

Stream nitrogen concentrations are variable and often high in the Oregon Coast Range, uncharacteristic for a predominantly forested region. We compiled stream nitrogen data and GIS-derived landscape characteristics in order to examine variation in nitrogen across the region. In s...

Climate and Southern Africa's Water-Energy-Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, D.; Osborn, T.; Dorling, S.; Ringler, C.; Lankford, B.; Dalin, C.; Thurlow, J.; Zhu, T.; Deryng, D.; Landman, W.; Archer van Garderen, E.; Krueger, T.; Lebek, K.

2014-12-01

Numerous challenges coalesce to make Southern Africa emblematic of the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus. Rainfall and river flows in the region show high levels of variability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate variability and change is high, for example, the contribution of electricity produced from hydroelectric sources is over 30% in Madagascar and Zimbabwe and almost 100% in the DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, and Zambia. The region's economy is closely linked with that of the rest of the African continent and climate-sensitive food products are an important item of trade. Southern Africa's population is concentrated in regions exposed to high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, and will increase rapidly over the next four decades. The capacity to manage the effects of climate variability tends, however, to be low. Moreover, with climate change annual precipitation levels, soil moisture and runoff are likely to decrease and rising temperatures will increase evaporative demand. Despite high levels of hydro-meteorological variability, the sectoral and cross-sectoral water-energy-food linkages with climate in Southern Africa have not been considered in detail. Lack of data and questionable reliability are compounded by complex dynamic relationships. We review the role of climate in Southern Africa's nexus, complemented by empirical analysis of national level data on climate, water resources, crop and energy production, and economic activity. Our aim is to examine the role of climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations in the nexus, and to improve understanding of the magnitude and temporal dimensions of their interactions. We first consider national level exposure of food, water and energy production to climate in aggregate economic terms and then examine the linkages between interannual and multi-year climate variability and economic activity, focusing on food and hydropower production. We then review the potential for connecting areas with robust seasonal climate forecasting skill with key precursors of economic output and conclude by identifying knowledge gaps in our understanding of regional and national economic linkages in the climate and water-energy-food nexus.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

E-Business, The impact of the Regional Government Development (APBD) on Information and Communication Development in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, M. I.; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Abdullah, D.; Napitupulu, D.; Rahim, R.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Wulandari, DAR; Reswanda; Mudjanarko, SW; Sugeng; Wajdi, MBN

2018-04-01

The decline of development delived from natural resources in several regions in Indonesia requires local governments to make a breakthrough in increasing revenues beyond natural resources, including through increased revenue in the field of information technology. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the regional government development (APBD) on information and communication development in Indonesia. By using correlational research, it is known that all of APBD sub variables have a high correlation in increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Information and Communication in Indonesia, only sub-variable of surplus/deficit development, unexpected development sub-variable, subvariable of development aid to province/regency/city and village government, and sub-variable of development special allocations that have not a significant correlation to increase of GRDP of Information and Communication in Indonesia. There is 86,7% of APBD variable influence the increase of GRDP of Information and Communication, while the increase of 15,3% of Information and Communication GRDP influenced by other factors aside from APBD. It shows the strong impact of APBD on increasing GRDP of Information and Communication

Diversity of the P2 protein among nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae isolates.

PubMed Central

Bell, J; Grass, S; Jeanteur, D; Munson, R S

1994-01-01

The genes for outer membrane protein P2 of four nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae strains were cloned and sequenced. The derived amino acid sequences were compared with the outer membrane protein P2 sequence from H. influenzae type b MinnA and the sequences of P2 from three additional nontypeable H. influenzae strains. The sequences were 76 to 94% identical. The sequences had regions with considerable variability separated by regions which were highly conserved. The variable regions mapped to putative surface-exposed loops of the protein. PMID:8188390

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2017-07-01

Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based "active fire" (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001-2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December-February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September-November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.

Analysis of the contribution of experimental bias, experimental noise, and inter-subject biological variability on the assessment of developmental trajectories in diffusion MRI studies of the brain.

PubMed

Sadeghi, Neda; Nayak, Amritha; Walker, Lindsay; Okan Irfanoglu, M; Albert, Paul S; Pierpaoli, Carlo

2015-04-01

Metrics derived from the diffusion tensor, such as fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) have been used in many studies of postnatal brain development. A common finding of previous studies is that these tensor-derived measures vary widely even in healthy populations. This variability can be due to inherent inter-individual biological differences as well as experimental noise. Moreover, when comparing different studies, additional variability can be introduced by different acquisition protocols. In this study we examined scans of 61 individuals (aged 4-22 years) from the NIH MRI study of normal brain development. Two scans were collected with different protocols (low and high resolution). Our goal was to separate the contributions of biological variability and experimental noise to the overall measured variance, as well as to assess potential systematic effects related to the use of different protocols. We analyzed FA and MD in seventeen regions of interest. We found that biological variability for both FA and MD varies widely across brain regions; biological variability is highest for FA in the lateral part of the splenium and body of the corpus callosum along with the cingulum and the superior longitudinal fasciculus, and for MD in the optic radiations and the lateral part of the splenium. These regions with high inter-individual biological variability are the most likely candidates for assessing genetic and environmental effects in the developing brain. With respect to protocol-related effects, the lower resolution acquisition resulted in higher MD and lower FA values for the majority of regions compared with the higher resolution protocol. However, the majority of the regions did not show any age-protocol interaction, indicating similar trajectories were obtained irrespective of the protocol used. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Scale-dependent spatial variability in peatland lead pollution in the southern Pennines, UK.

PubMed

Rothwell, James J; Evans, Martin G; Lindsay, John B; Allott, Timothy E H

2007-01-01

Increasingly, within-site and regional comparisons of peatland lead pollution have been undertaken using the inventory approach. The peatlands of the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK, have received significant atmospheric inputs of lead over the last few hundred years. A multi-core study at three peatland sites in the Peak District demonstrates significant within-site spatial variability in industrial lead pollution. Stochastic simulations reveal that 15 peat cores are required to calculate reliable lead inventories at the within-site and within-region scale for this highly polluted area of the southern Pennines. Within-site variability in lead pollution is dominant at the within-region scale. The study demonstrates that significant errors may be associated with peatland lead inventories at sites where only a single peat core has been used to calculate an inventory. Meaningful comparisons of lead inventories at the regional or global scale can only be made if the within-site variability of lead pollution has been quantified reliably.

Regional Climate Simulation and Data Assimilation with Variable-Resolution GCMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

2002-01-01

Variable resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced regional resolution over one or multiple areas of interest represents a viable new approach to regional climateklimate change and data assimilation studies and applications. The multiple areas of interest, at least one within each global quadrant, include the major global mountains and major global monsoonal circulations over North America, South America, India-China, and Australia. They also can include the polar domains, and the European and African regions. The SG-approach provides an efficient regional downscaling to mesoscales, and it is an ideal tool for representing consistent interactions of globaYlarge- and regionallmeso- scales while preserving the high quality of global circulation. Basically, the SG-GCM simulations are no different from those of the traditional uniform-grid GCM simulations besides using a variable-resolution grid. Several existing SG-GCMs developed by major centers and groups are briefly described. The major discussion is based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) SG-GCM regional climate simulations.

Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, Declan; Dalin, Carole; Landman, Willem A.; Osborn, Timothy J.

2017-12-01

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.

Region, Locality Characteristics, High School Tracking and Equality in Access to Educational Credentials: The Case of Palestinian Arab Communities in Israel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazawi, Andre Elias

1998-01-01

Examines the effects of regional, locality, and high school characteristics on access opportunities to educational credentials of Palestinian Arab students in Israel. Reveals that while tracking patterns are affected by high school variables at the community level, access to educational credentials is determined by community-level, socioeconomic…

The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

2018-03-01

Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

Craniodental variation in Paranthropus boisei: a developmental and functional perspective.

PubMed

Wood, B; Lieberman, D E

2001-09-01

What levels and patterns of craniodental variation among a fossil hypodigm are necessary to reject the null hypothesis that only a single species is sampled? We suggest how developmental and functional criteria can be used to predict where in the skeleton of fossil hominins we should expect more, or less, within-species variation. We present and test three hypotheses about the factors contributing to craniodental variation in extant primate taxa, and then apply these results to the interpretation of the P. boisei hypodigm. Within the comparative samples of extant Homo, Pan, Gorilla, Pongo, and Colobus, variables from the cranial base, neurocranium, and face that are not subject to high magnitudes of strain have consistently lower levels of intraspecific variation than variables from regions of the face subject to high levels of strain. Dental size variables are intermediate in terms of their reliability. P. boisei is found to have a low degree of variability relative to extant primates for variables shown to be generally useful for testing taxonomic hypotheses. Contrary to the claims of Suwa et al. ([1997] Nature 389:489-492), the recently discovered material from Konso falls within the range of variation of the "pre-Konso" hypodigm of P. boisei for available conventional metrical variables. Those aspects of the Konso material that appear to extend the range of the P. boisei hypodigm involve regions of the skull predicted to be prone to high levels of within-species variation. The approach used in this study focuses on craniodental data, but it is applicable to other regions of the skeleton. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sub-regional ecosystem variability in the Canary Current upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arístegui, Javier; Barton, Eric D.; Álvarez-Salgado, Xosé A.; Santos, A. Miguel P.; Figueiras, Francisco G.; Kifani, Souad; Hernández-León, Santiago; Mason, Evan; Machú, Eric; Demarcq, Hervé

2009-12-01

The Canary Current upwelling ecosystem (CanC) constitutes one of the four main eastern boundary upwelling ecosystems (EBUEs) of the world, thus hosting high productivity and fisheries. Recent observations indicate that the CanC region as a whole has been experiencing a progressive warming and a decrease in productivity over the last decades. This overall trend is however not directly reflected in the fisheries of the region. Here we update recent results and previous reviews on the CanC, covering aspects from the physical environment to fish populations and fisheries on a range of time scales. We approach these topics, when possible, through a comparative exploration of the biogeographical characteristics of different sub-regions comprising this ecosystem. This review shows that variability in coastline configuration, shelf width, coastal upwelling, nutrient fertilization, productivity, or retentive vs. dispersive physical mechanisms, among other factors, may help explain sub-regional differences in fish distributions and abundances in the CanC. Nevertheless, the lack of systematic information on the regional variability of physical and biological processes hampers an integrated understanding of the relative contribution of natural vs. human-induced variability in the populations of at least small-pelagic fishes and their associated fisheries.

Phytoplankton plasticity drives large variability in carbon fixation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayata, Sakina-Dorothée.; Lévy, Marina; Aumont, Olivier; Resplandy, Laure; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Sciandra, Antoine; Bernard, Olivier

2014-12-01

Phytoplankton C:N stoichiometry is highly flexible due to physiological plasticity, which could lead to high variations in carbon fixation efficiency (carbon consumption relative to nitrogen). However, the magnitude, as well as the spatial and temporal scales of variability, remains poorly constrained. We used a high-resolution biogeochemical model resolving various scales from small to high, spatially and temporally, in order to quantify and better understand this variability. We find that phytoplankton C:N ratio is highly variable at all spatial and temporal scales (5-12 molC/molN), from mesoscale to regional scale, and is mainly driven by nitrogen supply. Carbon fixation efficiency varies accordingly at all scales (±30%), with higher values under oligotrophic conditions and lower values under eutrophic conditions. Hence, phytoplankton plasticity may act as a buffer by attenuating carbon sequestration variability. Our results have implications for in situ estimations of C:N ratios and for future predictions under high CO2 world.

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; McMichael, Anthony J.; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-01-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention. PMID:16675420

OBSERVING CORONAL NANOFLARES IN ACTIVE REGION MOSS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Testa, Paola; DeLuca, Ed; Golub, Leon

2013-06-10

The High-resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) has provided Fe XII 193A images of the upper transition region moss at an unprecedented spatial ({approx}0.''3-0.''4) and temporal (5.5 s) resolution. The Hi-C observations show in some moss regions variability on timescales down to {approx}15 s, significantly shorter than the minute-scale variability typically found in previous observations of moss, therefore challenging the conclusion of moss being heated in a mostly steady manner. These rapid variability moss regions are located at the footpoints of bright hot coronal loops observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly in the 94 A channel, and by the Hinode/X-Raymore » Telescope. The configuration of these loops is highly dynamic, and suggestive of slipping reconnection. We interpret these events as signatures of heating events associated with reconnection occurring in the overlying hot coronal loops, i.e., coronal nanoflares. We estimate the order of magnitude of the energy in these events to be of at least a few 10{sup 23} erg, also supporting the nanoflare scenario. These Hi-C observations suggest that future observations at comparable high spatial and temporal resolution, with more extensive temperature coverage, are required to determine the exact characteristics of the heating mechanism(s).« less

Infrared astronomy research and high altitude observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, B.; Stein, W. A.; Willner, S. P.; Soifer, B. T.

1984-01-01

Highlights are presented of studies of the emission mechanisms in the 4 to 8 micron region of the spectrum using a circular variable filter wheel spectrometer with a PbSnTe photovoltaic detector. Investigations covered include the spectroscopy of planets, stellar atmospheres, highly obscured objects in molecular clouds, planetary nebulae, H2 regions, and extragalactic objects.

Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains (THP) region contributes to about 25% of the US cotton production. Dwindling groundwater resources in the underlying Ogallala aquifer, future climate variability and frequent occurrences of droughts are major concerns for cotton production in this region. Assessing the impacts ...

Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas high plains using the CSM-CROPGRO cotton model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Texas High Plains (THP) region contributes to about 25% of the US cotton production. Dwindling groundwater resources in the underlying Ogallala aquifer, future climate variability and frequent occurrences of droughts are major concerns for cotton production in this region. Assessing the impacts ...

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

Blazar Variability from Turbulence in Jets Launched by Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riordan, Michael O’; Pe’er, Asaf; McKinney, Jonathan C., E-mail: michael_oriordan@umail.ucc.ie

2017-07-10

Blazars show variability on timescales ranging from minutes to years, the former being comparable to and in some cases even shorter than the light-crossing time of the central black hole. The observed γ -ray light curves can be described by a power-law power density spectrum (PDS), with a similar index for both BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars. We show that this variability can be produced by turbulence in relativistic jets launched by magnetically arrested accretion flows (MADs). We perform radiative transport calculations on the turbulent, highly magnetized jet launching region of a MAD with a rapidly rotating supermassive blackmore » hole. The resulting synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton emission, originating from close to the black hole horizon, is highly variable. This variability is characterized by PDS, which is remarkably similar to the observed power-law spectrum at frequencies less than a few per day. Furthermore, turbulence in the jet launching region naturally produces fluctuations in the plasma on scales much smaller than the horizon radius. We speculate that similar turbulent processes, operating in the jet at large radii (and therefore a high bulk Lorentz factor), are responsible for blazar variability over many decades in frequency, including on minute timescales.« less

Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2009-04-01

In temperate climates, domestic radon concentration levels are generally seasonally dependent, the level in the home reflecting the convolution of two time-dependent functions. These are the source soil-gas radon concentration itself, and the principal force driving radon into the building from the soil, namely the pressure-difference between interior and exterior environment. While the meteorological influence can be regarded as relatively uniform on a European scale, its variability being defined largely by the influence of North-Atlantic weather systems, soil-gas radon is generally more variable as it is essentially geologically dependent. Seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration can therefore be expected to exhibit geographical variability, as is indeed the case. To compensate for the variability of domestic radon levels when assessing the long term radon health risks, the results of individual short-term measurements are generally converted to equivalent mean annual levels by application of a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF). This is a multiplying factor, typically derived from measurements of a large number of homes, applied to the measured short-term radon concentration to provide a meaningful annual mean concentration for dose-estimation purposes. Following concern as to the universal applicability of a single SCF set, detailed studies in both the UK and France have reported location-specific SCF sets for different regions of each country. Further results indicate that SCFs applicable to the UK differ significantly from those applicable elsewhere in Europe and North America in both amplitude and phase, supporting the thesis that seasonal variability in indoor radon concentration cannot realistically be compensated for by a single national or international SCF scheme. Published data characterising the seasonal variability of European national domestic radon concentrations, has been collated and analysed, with the objective of identifying correlations between published datasets and local geographic/geological conditions. Available data included regional SCF figures from the United Kingdom and from France, together with nationally-consolidated results from a number of other European countries. Analysis of this data shows significant variability between different countries and from region to region within those countries where regional data is available. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary geologies, particularly high porosity limestones etc., exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous geologies demonstrate relatively constant, albeit somewhat higher, radon concentration levels. Examples of the former can be found in the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France. Greatest variability is found in Switzerland, still subject to the ongoing Alpine orogeny, where the inhabited part of the country is largely overlain with recently-deposited light, porous sediments. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsular in England, and Auvergne and the Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt, which extends from the Iberian peninsular through South-West Ireland and South-West England to France and Germany.

Comparative glacio-climatological analysis of mass balance variability along the geographical margin of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehoczky, Annamária; Kern, Zoltán; Pongrácz, Rita

2014-05-01

Glacio-climatological studies recognise glacier mass balance changes as high-confident climate indicators. The climatic sensitivity of a glacier does not simply depend on regional climate variability but also influenced via large- and mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns. This study focuses on recent changes in the mass balance using records from three border regions of Europe, and investigates the relationships between the seasonal mass balance components, regional climatic conditions, and distant atmospheric forcing. Since glaciers in different macro-climatological conditions (i.e., mid-latitudes or high-latitudes, dry-continental or maritime regions) may present strongly diverse mass balance characteristics, the three analysed regions were selected from different glacierised macroregions (using the database of the World Glacier Monitoring Service). These regions belong to the Caucasus Mountains (Central Europe macroregion), the Polar Ural (Northern Asia macroregion), and Svalbard (Arctic Islands macroregion). The analysis focuses on winter, summer, and annual mass balance series of eight glaciers. The climatic variables (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, precipitation) and indices of teleconnection patterns (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are used from the gridded databases of the University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Environmental Prediction. However, the period and length of available mass balance data in the selected regions vary greatly (the first full record is in 1958, Polar Ural; the last is in 2010, Caucasus Mountains), a comparative analysis can be carried out for the period of 1968-1981. Since glaciers from different regions respond to large- and mesoscale climatic forcings differently, and because the mass balance of glaciers within a region often co-vary, our specific objectives are (i) to examine the variability and the integrative climatic signal in the averaged mass balance records of the selected regions; (ii) to analyse the possible coupling between the mass balance and climatic variables, including the dominant patterns of Northern Hemisphere climate variability; and (iii) to compare the main characteristics of the three regions. Furthermore, (iv) a short discussion is given considering the significant decreasing trend of the cumulative annual mass balances in every region under the detected climatic changes in the second half of the 20th century. Preliminary results suggest that the strongest teleconnection links could be between winter mass balance and winter NAO for the Polar Ural (r=0.46, p<0.05), and between annual mass balance and PDO for Svalbard (r=-0.43, p<0.05). Neither seasonal, nor annual mass balance records showed significant correlation with any of the examined circulation indices for the Caucasus.

Distribution of Helicobacter pylori virulence markers in patients with gastroduodenal diseases in a region at high risk of gastric cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Ming-yi; Chen, Cheng; Gao, Xiao-zhong; Li, Jie; Yue, Jing; Ling, Feng; Wang, Xiao-chun; Shao, Shi-he

2013-01-01

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is a major human pathogen that is responsible for various gastroduodenal diseases. We investigated the prevalence of H. pylori virulence markers in a region at high risk of gastric cancer. One hundred and sixteen H. pylori strains were isolated from patients with gastroduodenal diseases. cagA, the cagA 3' variable region, cagPAI genes, vacA, and dupA genotypes were determined by PCR, and some amplicons of the cagA 3' variable region, cagPAI genes and dupA were sequenced. cagA was detected in all strains. The cagA 3' variable region of 85 strains (73.3%) was amplified, and the sequences of 24 strains were obtained including 22 strains possessing the East Asian-type. The partial cagPAI presented at a higher frequency in chronic gastritis (44.4%) than that of the severe clinical outcomes (9.7%, p < 0.001). The most prevalent vacA genotypes were s1a/m2 (48.3%) and s1c/m2 (13.8%). Thirty-six strains (31.0%) possessed dupA and sequencing of dupA revealed an ORF of 2449-bp. The prevalence of dupA was significantly higher in strains from patients with the severe clinical outcomes (40.3%) than that from chronic gastritis (20.4%, p = 0.02). The high rate of East Asian-type cagA, intact cagPAI, virulent vacA genotypes, and the intact long-type dupA may underlie the high risk of gastric cancer in the region. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales.

PubMed

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R Lawrence

2016-11-11

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R. Lawrence

2016-01-01

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia’s hydroclimate variability from Tonnel’naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel’naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia. PMID:27833133

Tree-ring based reconstruction of spring hydroclimate variability in the Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Benito, Dario; Köse, Nesibe; Güner, Tuncay; Pederson, Neil

2015-04-01

The Caucasus region has been identified as one of the most prominent biodiversity hotspots in the world. The region experiences recurrent droughts that not only affect natural vegetation but also the agriculturally-based economies in the Caucasus. Across northeastern Turkey and the Caucasus region, instrumental records providing information on climate variability are generally scarce. Thus the magnitude and frequency of past droughts in this biologically important region are less known. Additionally, despite the increase of climate reconstructions in the past decades for many parts of Europe and Asia, relatively little work has been done to understand hydroclimate variability in the Caucasus region. Nearly all efforts in the region have focused on the Mediterranean part of Turkey and the Middle East region. We developed new tree-ring width chronologies from different elevation sites in northeastern Turkey with the goal to reconstruct annually-resolved estimates of temperature and hydroclimate across the region. We developed the first reconstruction of spring hydroclimate variability for the Caucasus and the southeastern Black Sea Region since 1750 CE using a nested procedure. Despite the high mean annual precipitation in the region, our reconstruction accounted for over 45% of May-June precipitation variability from 1925 to 2006. We observed no evidence of a decrease in spring precipitation during the recent decades. However, we do see a decrease in precipitation variability over the last 75 years with respect to previous periods that, at this time, does not appear to be related to sample replication. Although our reconstructed precipitation shows important similarities with previous work from Mediterranean and northern Turkey, we find distinct drought periods are also evident suggesting a wider range of climate dynamics in the broader Black Sea region than what has been previously identified. Distinct episodes of drought at the larger scales could have important implications for the dynamics of ecosystems prior to and after the 20th century.

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

DOE PAGES

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-10-22

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations,more » precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.« less

Genome variability of foot-and-mouth disease virus during the short period of the 2010 epidemic in Japan.

PubMed

Nishi, Tatsuya; Yamada, Manabu; Fukai, Katsuhiko; Shimada, Nobuaki; Morioka, Kazuki; Yoshida, Kazuo; Sakamoto, Kenichi; Kanno, Toru; Yamakawa, Makoto

2017-02-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is highly contagious and has a high mutation rate, leading to extensive genetic variation. To investigate how FMDV genetically evolves over a short period of an epidemic after initial introduction into an FMD-free area, whole L-fragment sequences of 104 FMDVs isolated from the 2010 epidemic in Japan, which continued for less than three months were determined and phylogenetically and comparatively analyzed. Phylogenetic analysis of whole L-fragment sequences showed that these isolates were classified into a single group, indicating that FMDV was introduced into Japan in the epidemic via a single introduction. Nucleotide sequences of 104 virus isolates showed more than 99.56% pairwise identity rates without any genetic deletion or insertion, although no sequences were completely identical with each other. These results indicate that genetic substitutions of FMDV occurred gradually and constantly during the epidemic and generation of an extensive mutant virus could have been prevented by rapid eradication strategy. From comparative analysis of variability of each FMDV protein coding region, VP4 and 2C regions showed the highest average identity rates and invariant rates, and were confirmed as highly conserved. In contrast, the protein coding regions VP2 and VP1 were confirmed to be highly variable regions with the lowest average identity rates and invariant rates, respectively. Our data demonstrate the importance of rapid eradication strategy in an FMD epidemic and provide valuable information on the genome variability of FMDV during the short period of an epidemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Formulation for Fresh Snow Density over Antarctica for the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, M.; Datta, R.; Fettweis, X.; Agosta, C.

2015-12-01

Surface-layer snow density is important to processes contributing to surface mass balance, but is highly variable over Antarctica due to a wide range of near-surface climate conditions over the continent. Formulations for fresh snow density have typically either used fixed values or been modeled empirically using field data that is limited to specific seasons or regions. There is also currently limited work exploring how the sensitivity to fresh snow density in regional climate models varies with resolution. Here, we present a new formulation compiled from (a) over 1600 distinct density profiles from multiple sources across Antarctica and (b) near-surface variables from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR). Observed values represent coastal areas as well as the plateau, in both West and East Antarctica (although East Antarctica is dominant). However, no measurements are included from the Antarctic Peninsula, which is both highly topographically variable and extends to lower latitudes than the remainder of the continent. In order to assess the applicability of this fresh snow density formulation to the Antarctic Peninsula at high resolutions, a version of MAR is run for several years both at low-resolution at the continental scale and at a high resolution for the Antarctic Peninsula alone. This setup is run both with and without the new fresh density formulation to quantify the sensitivity of the energy balance and SMB components to fresh snow density. Outputs are compared with near-surface atmospheric variables available from AWS stations (provided by the University of Wisconsin Madison) as well as net accumulation values from the SAMBA database (provided from the Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement).

Sources and pathways of the upscale effects on the Southern Hemisphere jet in MPAS-CAM4 variable-resolution simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

Impacts of regional grid refinement on large-scale circulations (“upscale effects”) were detected in a previous study that used the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere coupled to the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4. The strongest upscale effect was identified in the Southern Hemisphere jet during austral winter. This study examines the detailed underlying processes by comparing two simulations at quasi-uniform resolutions of 30 and 120 km to three variable-resolution simulations in which the horizontal grids are regionally refined to 30 km in North America, South America, or Asia from 120 km elsewhere. In all the variable-resolution simulations,more » precipitation increases in convective areas inside the high-resolution domains, as in the reference quasi-uniform high-resolution simulation. With grid refinement encompassing the tropical Americas, the increased condensational heating expands the local divergent circulations (Hadley cell) meridionally such that their descending branch is shifted poleward, which also pushes the baroclinically unstable regions, momentum flux convergence, and the eddy-driven jet poleward. This teleconnection pathway is not found in the reference high-resolution simulation due to a strong resolution sensitivity of cloud radiative forcing that dominates the aforementioned teleconnection signals. The regional refinement over Asia enhances Rossby wave sources and strengthens the upper level southerly flow, both facilitating the cross-equatorial propagation of stationary waves. Evidence indicates that this teleconnection pathway is also found in the reference high-resolution simulation. Lastly, the result underlines the intricate diagnoses needed to understand the upscale effects in global variable-resolution simulations, with implications for science investigations using the computationally efficient modeling framework.« less

Comparative and Evolutionary Analyses of Meloidogyne spp. Based on Mitochondrial Genome Sequences

PubMed Central

García, Laura Evangelina; Sánchez-Puerta, M. Virginia

2015-01-01

Molecular taxonomy and evolution of nematodes have been recently the focus of several studies. Mitochondrial sequences were proposed as an alternative for precise identification of Meloidogyne species, to study intraspecific variability and to follow maternal lineages. We characterized the mitochondrial genomes (mtDNAs) of the root knot nematodes M. floridensis, M. hapla and M. incognita. These were AT rich (81–83%) and highly compact, encoding 12 proteins, 2 rRNAs, and 22 tRNAs. Comparisons with published mtDNAs of M. chitwoodi, M. incognita (another strain) and M. graminicola revealed that they share protein and rRNA gene order but differ in the order of tRNAs. The mtDNAs of M. floridensis and M. incognita were strikingly similar (97–100% identity for all coding regions). In contrast, M. floridensis, M. chitwoodi, M. hapla and M. graminicola showed 65–84% nucleotide identity for coding regions. Variable mitochondrial sequences are potentially useful for evolutionary and taxonomic studies. We developed a molecular taxonomic marker by sequencing a highly-variable ~2 kb mitochondrial region, nad5-cox1, from 36 populations of root-knot nematodes to elucidate relationships within the genus Meloidogyne. Isolates of five species formed monophyletic groups and showed little intraspecific variability. We also present a thorough analysis of the mitochondrial region cox2-rrnS. Phylogenies based on either mitochondrial region had good discrimination power but could not discriminate between M. arenaria, M. incognita and M. floridensis. PMID:25799071

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-08-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-02-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Extreme infrared variables from UKIDSS - II. An end-of-survey catalogue of eruptive YSOs and unusual stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, P. W.; Smith, L. C.; Contreras Peña, C.; Froebrich, D.; Drew, J. E.; Kumar, M. S. N.; Borissova, J.; Minniti, D.; Kurtev, R.; Monguió, M.

2017-12-01

We present a catalogue of 618 high-amplitude infrared variable stars (1 < ΔK < 5 mag) detected by the two widely separated epochs of 2.2 μm data in the UKIDSS Galactic plane survey, from searches covering ∼1470 deg2. Most were discovered by a search of all fields at 30 < l < 230°. Sources include new dusty Mira variables, three new cataclysmic variable candidates, a blazar and a peculiar source that may be an interacting binary system. However, ∼60 per cent are young stellar obbjects (YSOs), based on spatial association with star-forming regions at distances ranging from 300 pc to over 10 kpc. This confirms our initial result in Contreras Peña et al. (Paper I) that YSOs dominate the high-amplitude infrared variable sky in the Galactic disc. It is also supported by recently published VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) results at 295 < l < 350°. The spectral energy distributions of the YSOs indicate class I or flat-spectrum systems in most cases, as in the VVV sample. A large number of variable YSOs are associated with the Cygnus X complex and other groups are associated with the North America/Pelican nebula, the Gemini OB1 molecular cloud, the Rosette complex, the Cone nebula, the W51 star-forming region and the S86 and S236 H II regions. Most of the YSO variability is likely due to variable/episodic accretion on time-scales of years, albeit usually less extreme than classical FUors and EXors. Luminosities at the 2010 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer epoch range from ∼0.1 to 103 L⊙ but only rarely exceed 102.5 L⊙.

Variable Emittance Electrochromics Using Ionic Electrolytes and Low Solar Absorptance Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandrasekhar, Prasanna

2011-01-01

One of the last remaining technical hurdles with variable emittance devices or skins based on conducting polymer electrochromics is the high solar absorptance of their top surfaces. This high solar absorptance causes overheating of the skin when facing the Sun in space. Existing technologies such as mechanical louvers or loop heat pipes are virtually inapplicable to micro (< 20 kg) and nano (< 5 kg) spacecraft. Novel coatings lower the solar absorption to Alpha(s) of between 0.30 and 0.46. Coupled with the emittance properties of the variable emittance skins, this lowers the surface temperature of the skins facing the Sun to between 30 and 60 C, which is much lower than previous results of 100 C, and is well within acceptable satellite operations ranges. The performance of this technology is better than that of current new technologies such as microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), electrostatics, and electrophoretics, especially in applications involving micro and nano spacecraft. The coatings are deposited inside a high vacuum, layering multiple coatings onto the top surfaces of variable emittance skins. They are completely transparent in the entire relevant infrared region (about 2 to 45 microns), but highly reflective in the visible-NIR (near infrared) region of relevance to solar absorptance.

[Variability in the in-hospital management of acute myocardial infarction in Spain. IBERICA Study (Investigación, Búsqueda Específica y Registro de Isquemia Coronaria Aguda)].

PubMed

Fiol, M; Cabadés, A; Sala, J; Marrugat, J; Elosua, R; Vega, G; José Tormo Díaz, M; Segura, A; Aldasoro, E; Moreno-Iribas, C; Muñiz, J; Hurtado de Saracho, I; García, J

2001-04-01

Introduction and objective. Although some in-hospital studies have described the management of acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients in Spain, none has been able to guarantee the exhaustiveness of patient registry. This study sought to determine the clinical characteristics and in-hospital management of patients with MI in eight Spanish population registries.Methods. The IBERICA study is a population-based MI registry carried out in the 25 to 74 year-old population, in eight Spanish regions in 1997. A standardized methodology was used to register and investigate all MI arriving alive to a hospital. Clinical characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors prevalence, pharmacological treatment, invasive and non-invasive procedures performed and complications at 28 days of evolution were recorded. A descriptive analysis was performed and the variation coefficient (VC) was calculated.Results. In 1997, 4,041 MI patients were registered, 79.9% were men with a mean age of 61.1 years. Although 10.9% (95% CI: 9.9-11.9%) were not admitted to the coronary care unit, a large variability existed among different areas (VC = 53%). There was a high variability in the utilization and performance of non-invasive and invasive procedures among regions, as well as in the use of pharmacological treatment. Only the use of antiaggregants (91.5%) and thrombolytic therapy (41.8%) showed a low variability (VC < 10%). Twenty-eight day mortality was 16.2% (95% CI: 15.1-17.4%) with a high variability being observed among the different regions (VC = 20.6%).Conclusion. Patient characteristics vary among the different Spanish regions. The differences in management and prognosis suggest a lack of equality in the health care provided to MI patients in the different regions in Spain.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Latitudinal variability of arsine, germane and phosphine in Jupiter's troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giles, Rohini Sara; Fletcher, Leigh N.; Irwin, Patrick Gerard Joseph

2016-10-01

High-resolution 5-μm observations of Jupiter from the CRIRES instrument at the Very Large Telescope are used to measure latitudinal variability in AsH3, GeH4 and PH3. The 5-micron region is a spectral window allowing us to probe down to Jupiter's middle troposphere (4-8 bar). CRIRES observations in 2012 and 2013 provide high-resolution (R=96,000) latitudinally-resolved spectra in the 4.7-5.2 μm region. In the middle troposphere, AsH3, GeH4and PH3 are disequilibrium species that are only present because of rapid upwelling from deeper regions of the planet. Their observed abundances depend on the chemical lifetimes, the strength of the vertical mixing and the rate of photolytic destruction, and are therefore likely to vary with latitude. We analyse the CRIRES observations using the NEMESIS radiative transfer code and retrieval algorithm in order to search for any latitudinal variability in the disequilibrium species. We find that there is a significant degeneracy between the retrieved gaseous abundances and the cloud structure - specifically, the scattering properties of the main tropospheric cloud deck, and the presence/absence of an additional deep cloud. Because of these degeneracies, there is no clear evidence for any variability in GeH4. However, for AsH3 and PH3, there are significant latitudinal differences in the observed lineshape that cannot be accounted for by clouds. We conclude that both of these gases show an enhancement at high latitudes. In the case of AsH3, the retrieved abundance varies from subsolar in the equatorial regions (as seen in previous studies) to supersolar in the polar regions. Our findings are in contrast with the theoretical simulations of Wang et al. (2016, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2016.04.027), which predict that AsH3 and PH3 should not vary with latitude, and that GeH4 should decrease in abundance at high latitudes.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

Evaluating optimum limited irrigation management strategies for corn production in the ogallala aquifer region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water is the major factor limiting crop production in the Ogallala Aquifer Region of the U.S. Central High Plains. Seasonal precipitation is highly variable, low in amount, and not enough to meet full corn water needs. The Ogallala Aquifer is the major source of irrigation water for commercial agric...

Variability in oceanographic barriers to coral larval dispersal: Do currents shape biodiversity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Kleypas, J.; Castruccio, F.; Curchitser, E. N.; Pinsky, M. L.; Jönsson, B.; Watson, J. R.

2018-07-01

The global center of marine biodiversity is located in the western tropical Pacific in a region known as the "Coral Triangle" (CT). This region is also considered the most threatened of all coral reef regions, because multiple impacts, including rising temperatures and coral bleaching, have already caused high mortality of reef corals over large portions of the CT. Larval dispersal and recruitment play a critical role in reef recovery after such disturbances, but our understanding of reproductive connectivity between reefs is limited by a paucity of observations. Oceanographic modeling can provide an economical and efficient way to augment our understanding of reef connectivity, particularly over an area as large as the CT, where marine ecosystem management has become a priority. This work combines daily averaged surface current velocity and direction from a Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the CT region (CT-ROMS) with a Lagrangian particle tracking tool (TRACMASS) to investigate the probability of larval transport between reefs for a typical broadcasting coral. A 47-year historical simulation (1960-2006) was used to analyze the potential connectivity, the physical drivers of larval transport, and its variability following bi-annual spawning events in April and September. Potential connectivity between reefs was highly variable from year to year, emphasizing the need for long simulations. The results suggest that although reefs in this region are highly self-seeded, comparatively rare long-distance dispersal events may play a vital role in shaping regional patterns of reef biodiversity and recovery following disturbance. The spatial pattern of coral "subpopulations," which are based on the potential connectivity between reefs, agrees with observed regional-scale patterns of biodiversity, suggesting that the physical barriers to larval dispersal are a first-order driver of coral biodiversity in the CT region. These physical barriers persist through the 21st Century when the model is forced with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) RCP8.5 climate scenario, despite some regional changes in connectivity between reefs.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions.

Relationship between the Names of People and Enterprises with Plant Origin with Phytotoponyms in Five Croatian Regions.

PubMed

Sindik, Joško; Carić, Tonko

2016-04-01

In this study, the first and last names of people (FN and LN), enterprises (EN) (with plants'species roots in their names) and phytotoponyms (PT) in five Croatian regions are analyzed, in their relationships. The goals of the study were: to determine the correlations between FN, LN, EN and PT; to determine the latent structure of these variables; to forecast number of PT (criterion) on the base of predictors (FN, LN, EN); to determine grouping of the places (within certain regions) as cases by two plants' categorizations; to determine grouping of the plants as cases by regions. We have analyzed 15 places, grouped in five regions, with 39 different plant species. The results revealed that the only principal component highly positively correlated with the variables last name and office name, while the projections for the variables first name (moderate high) and phytotoponyms (low size) were negative. Prediction of the criteria phytotoponyms is satisfactorily good, using three predictors: last name, first name and the office name. First cluster analysis revealed that phytotoponyms are mostly related with trees and deciduous plants, while names are related with trees, deciduous and herbaceous plants. Second cluster analysis obtained clear distinction between regions in dominant PTs, based on certain plants' names. The results indicate clear association between phytotoponyms and names of people.

Coupled nature of evening-time ionospheric electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, L. M.; Tsai, L. C.

2018-04-01

The F region evening electrodynamics in the equatorial region is characterized by a pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) in the zonal eastward electric field. Although the theoretical mechanisms for PRE are known, its variability, particularly day-to-day variability is not fully resolved. PRE is a large scale phenomenon driven by the F region dynamo after the sunset hours. This paper investigates whether the variability of the E region conductivity (particularly the one associated with the sporadic E, Es) has any influence on the F region dynamo and hence on the PRE of zonal electric field. Interestingly, ionosonde observations have indicated a higher occurrence of the blanketing type Es (Esb) over the low latitude on days with highly suppressed PRE of zonal electric field in comparison with the days with significantly larger PRE. Observational evidences presented in this paper suggests that the formation of the Esb in the evening hours is a sovereign process, not always controlled by the sheared F region vertical electric field of equatorial origin, mapping along the magnetic field line on to the low latitude E region. Model computations of the PRE suppression based on the measured Es densities have further substantiated the observational findings presented in this paper. These results clearly indicate that the low latitude Es has the potential to suppress the PRE of zonal electric field and possibly can play a vital role in explaining the PRE variability, particularly the day-to-day variability. Results have been discussed in light of earlier reports on PRE mechanisms and E-F region coupling processes.

Identifying the interferences of irrigation on evapotranspiration variability over the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, R.; Cai, X.

2016-12-01

Irrigation has considerably interfered with hydrological processes in arid and semi-arid areas with heavy irrigated agriculture. With the increasing demand for food production and evaporative demand due to climate change, irrigation water consumption is expected to increase, which would aggravate the interferences to hydrologic processes. Current studies focus on the impact of irrigation on the mean value of evapotranspiration (ET) at either local or regional scale, however, how irrigation changes the variability of ET has not been well understood. This study analyzes the impact of extensive irrigation on ET variability in the Northern High Plains. We apply an ET variance decomposition framework developed from our previous work to quantify the effects of both climate and irrigation on ET variance in the Northern High Plains watersheds. Based on climate and water table observations, we assess the monthly ET variance and its components for two periods: 1930s-1960s with less irrigation development 970s-2010s with more development. It is found that irrigation not only caused the well-recognized groundwater drawdown and stream depletion problems in the region, but also buffered ET variance from climatic fluctuations. In addition to increasing food productivity, irrigation also stabilizes crop yield by mitigating the impact of hydroclimatic variability. With complementary water supply from irrigation, ET often approaches to the potential ET, and thus the observed ET variance is more attributed to climatic variables especially temperature; meanwhile irrigation causes significant seasonal fluctuations to groundwater storage. For sustainable water resources management in the Northern High Plains, we argue that both the mean value and the variance of ET should be considered together for the regulation of irrigation in this region.

Comparison of environmental forcings affecting suspended sediments variability in two macrotidal, highly-turbid estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Schmidt, Sabine; Sottolichio, Aldo

2017-11-01

The relative contribution of environmental forcing frequencies on turbidity variability is, for the first time, quantified at seasonal and multiannual time scales in tidal estuarine systems. With a decade of high-frequency, multi-site turbidity monitoring, the two nearby, macrotidal and highly-turbid Gironde and Loire estuaries (west France) are excellent natural laboratories for this purpose. Singular Spectrum Analyses, combined with Lomb-Scargle periodograms and Wavelet Transforms, were applied to the continuous multiannual turbidity time series. Frequencies of the main environmental factors affecting turbidity were identified: hydrological regime (high versus low river discharges), river flow variability, tidal range, tidal cycles, and turbulence. Their relative influences show similar patterns in both estuaries and depend on the estuarine region (lower or upper estuary) and the time scale (multiannual or seasonal). On the multiannual time scale, the relative contribution of tidal frequencies (tidal cycles and range) to turbidity variability decreases up-estuary from 68% to 47%, while the influence of river flow frequencies increases from 3% to 42%. On the seasonal time scale, the relative influence of forcings frequencies remains almost constant in the lower estuary, dominated by tidal frequencies (60% and 30% for tidal cycles and tidal range, respectively); in the upper reaches, it is variable depending on hydrological regime, even if tidal frequencies are responsible for up 50% of turbidity variance. These quantifications show the potential of combined spectral analyses to compare the behavior of suspended sediment in tidal estuaries throughout the world and to evaluate long-term changes in environmental forcings, especially in a context of global change. The relevance of this approach to compare nearby and overseas systems and to support management strategies is discussed (e.g., selection of effective operation frequencies/regions, prediction of the most affected regions by the implementation of operational management plans).

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were observed for April. During this month, the water recharge of the soil is crucial to let the winter crops manage with the scarce rainfalls occurring in the following months. In 1970, 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1997 more than 50% of the stations were under extreme high PET; while 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1988 presented more than 40% under extreme low R. Thus, the 70s was the more threatened decade of the period. Since the 80s (except for 1997), extreme dry events due to one variable or the other are mostly presented separately, over smaller areas. The response of the spatial distribution of HC is stronger when both variables present extreme conditions. In particular, during 1997 the region presents extreme low values of HC as a consequence of extreme low R and high PET. Communities dependent on agriculture are highly sensitive to climate variability and its extremes. In the studied region, it was shown that scarce water and heat stress contribute to the resulting hydric condition, producing strong impact over different productive activities. Extreme temperature seems to have a stronger influence over extreme unfavorable hydric conditions.

Spontaneous and engineered deletions in the 3' noncoding region of tick-borne encephalitis virus: construction of highly attenuated mutants of a flavivirus.

PubMed

Mandl, C W; Holzmann, H; Meixner, T; Rauscher, S; Stadler, P F; Allison, S L; Heinz, F X

1998-03-01

The flavivirus genome is a positive-strand RNA molecule containing a single long open reading frame flanked by noncoding regions (NCR) that mediate crucial processes of the viral life cycle. The 3' NCR of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus can be divided into a variable region that is highly heterogeneous in length among strains of TBE virus and in certain cases includes an internal poly(A) tract and a 3'-terminal conserved core element that is believed to fold as a whole into a well-defined secondary structure. We have now investigated the genetic stability of the TBE virus 3' NCR and its influence on viral growth properties and virulence. We observed spontaneous deletions in the variable region during growth of TBE virus in cell culture and in mice. These deletions varied in size and location but always included the internal poly(A) element of the TBE virus 3' NCR and never extended into the conserved 3'-terminal core element. Subsequently, we constructed specific deletion mutants by using infectious cDNA clones with the entire variable region and increasing segments of the core element removed. A virus mutant lacking the entire variable region was indistinguishable from wild-type virus with respect to cell culture growth properties and virulence in the mouse model. In contrast, even small extensions of the deletion into the core element led to significant biological effects. Deletions extending to nucleotides 10826, 10847, and 10870 caused distinct attenuation in mice without measurable reduction of cell culture growth properties, which, however, were significantly restricted when the deletion was extended to nucleotide 10919. An even larger deletion (to nucleotide 10994) abolished viral viability. In spite of their high degree of attenuation, these mutants efficiently induced protective immune responses even at low inoculation doses. Thus, 3'-NCR deletions represent a useful technique for achieving stable attenuation of flaviviruses that can be included in the rational design of novel flavivirus live vaccines.

Seychelles Dome variability in a high resolution ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyadjro, E. S.; Jensen, T.; Richman, J. G.; Shriver, J. F.

2016-02-01

The Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 5ºS-10ºS, 50ºE-80ºE) in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) has been recognized as a region of prominence with regards to climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Convective activities in this region have regional consequences as it affect socio-economic livelihood of the people especially in the countries along the Indian Ocean rim. The SCTR is characterized by a quasi-permanent upwelling that is often associated with thermocline shoaling. This upwelling affects sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We present results on the variability and dynamics of the SCTR as simulated by the 1/12º high resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). It is observed that locally, wind stress affects SST via Ekman pumping of cooler subsurface waters, mixing and anomalous zonal advection. Remotely, wind stress curl in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean generates westward-propagating Rossby waves that impacts the depth of the thermocline which in turn impacts SST variability in the SCTR region. The variability of the contributions of these processes, especially with regard to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are further examined. In a typical positive IOD (PIOD) year, the net vertical velocity in the SCTR is negative year-round as easterlies along the region are intensified leading to a strong positive curl. This vertical velocity is caused mainly by anomalous local Ekman downwelling (with peak during September-November), a direct opposite to the climatology scenario when local Ekman pumping is positive (upwelling favorable) year-round. The anomalous remote contribution to the vertical velocity changes is minimal especially during the developing and peak stages of PIOD events. In a typical negative IOD (NIOD) year, anomalous vertical velocity is positive almost year-round with peaks in May and October. The remote contribution is positive, in contrast to the climatology and most of the PIOD years.

Uniform distributions of glucose oxidation and oxygen extraction in gray matter of normal human brain: No evidence of regional differences of aerobic glycolysis.

PubMed

Hyder, Fahmeed; Herman, Peter; Bailey, Christopher J; Møller, Arne; Globinsky, Ronen; Fulbright, Robert K; Rothman, Douglas L; Gjedde, Albert

2016-05-01

Regionally variable rates of aerobic glycolysis in brain networks identified by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (R-fMRI) imply regionally variable adenosine triphosphate (ATP) regeneration. When regional glucose utilization is not matched to oxygen delivery, affected regions have correspondingly variable rates of ATP and lactate production. We tested the extent to which aerobic glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation power R-fMRI networks by measuring quantitative differences between the oxygen to glucose index (OGI) and the oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) as measured by positron emission tomography (PET) in normal human brain (resting awake, eyes closed). Regionally uniform and correlated OEF and OGI estimates prevailed, with network values that matched the gray matter means, regardless of size, location, and origin. The spatial agreement between oxygen delivery (OEF≈0.4) and glucose oxidation (OGI ≈ 5.3) suggests that no specific regions have preferentially high aerobic glycolysis and low oxidative phosphorylation rates, with globally optimal maximum ATP turnover rates (VATP ≈ 9.4 µmol/g/min), in good agreement with (31)P and (13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy measurements. These results imply that the intrinsic network activity in healthy human brain powers the entire gray matter with ubiquitously high rates of glucose oxidation. Reports of departures from normal brain-wide homogeny of oxygen extraction fraction and oxygen to glucose index may be due to normalization artefacts from relative PET measurements. © The Author(s) 2016.

Global warming: it's not only size that matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2011-09-01

Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact ecosystems and society more than slow, gradual ones. Also, is it really the mean seasonal temperature that counts, or should the focus change to extremes (see Hegerl et al 2011b)? Is seasonal mean exceedance of the prior temperature envelope a good and robust measure that also reflects these other, more complex diagnostics? Lots of food for thought and research! References Allen M R and Tett S F B 1999 Checking for model consistency in optimal finger printing Clim. Dyn. 15 419-34 Hall A 2004 The role of surface albedo feedback in climate J. Clim. 17 1550-68 Hasselmann K 1979 On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies Meteorology of Tropical Oceans ed D B Shaw (Bracknell: Royal Meteorological Society) pp 251-9 Hegerl G C, Luterbacher J, Gonzalez-Ruoco F, Tett S F B and Xoplaki E 2011a Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures Nature Geoscience 4 99-103 Hegerl G, Hanlon H and Beierkuhnlein C 2011b Climate science: elusive extremes Nature Geoscience 4 142-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed M L Parry, O F Canziani, J P Palutikof, P J van der Linden and C E Hanson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Jansen E et al 2007 Palaeoclimate Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Luterbacher J et al 2004 European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500 Science 303 1499-503 Mahlstein I, Knutti R, Solomon S and Portmann R W 2011 Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries Environ. Res. Lett. 6 034009

Carbon cycle. The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO₂ sink.

PubMed

Ahlström, Anders; Raupach, Michael R; Schurgers, Guy; Smith, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Canadell, Josep G; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jain, Atul K; Kato, Etsushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Sitch, Stephen; Stocker, Benjamin D; Viovy, Nicolas; Wang, Ying Ping; Wiltshire, Andy; Zaehle, Sönke; Zeng, Ning

2015-05-22

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Constraints on the optical polarization source in the luminous non-blazar quasar 3C 323.1 (PG 1545+210) from the photometric and polarimetric variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokubo, Mitsuru

2017-05-01

We examine the optical photometric and polarimetric variability of the luminous type 1 non-blazar quasar 3C 323.1 (PG 1545+210). Two optical spectropolarimetric measurements taken during the periods 1996-1998 and 2003 combined with a V-band imaging-polarimetric measurement taken in 2002 reveal that (1) as noted in the literature, the polarization of 3C 323.1 is confined only to the continuum emission, I.e. the emission from the broad-line region is unpolarized; (2) the polarized flux spectra show evidence of a time-variable broad absorption feature in the wavelength range of the Balmer continuum and other recombination lines; (3) weak variability in the polarization position angle (PA) of ˜4°over a time-scale of 4-6 yr is observed and (4) the V-band total flux and the polarized flux show highly correlated variability over a time-scale of 1 yr. Taking the above-mentioned photometric and polarimetric variability properties and the results from previous studies into consideration, we propose a geometrical model for the polarization source in 3C 323.1, in which an equatorial absorbing region and an axi-asymmetric equatorial electron-scattering region are assumed to be located between the accretion disc and the broad-line region. The scattering/absorbing regions can perhaps be attributed to the accretion disc wind or flared disc surface, but further polarimetric monitoring observations for 3C 323.1 and other quasars with continuum-confined polarization are needed to probe the true physical origins of these regions.

A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-06-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

Yield of bedrock wells in the Nashoba terrane, central and eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

The yield of bedrock wells in the fractured-bedrock aquifers of the Nashoba terrane and surrounding area, central and eastern Massachusetts, was investigated with analyses of existing data. Reported well yield was compiled for 7,287 wells from Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection and U.S. Geological Survey databases. Yield of these wells ranged from 0.04 to 625 gallons per minute. In a comparison with data from 103 supply wells, yield and specific capacity from aquifer tests were well correlated, indicating that reported well yield was a reasonable measure of aquifer characteristics in the study area. Statistically significant relations were determined between well yield and a number of cultural and hydrogeologic factors. Cultural variables included intended water use, well depth, year of construction, and method of yield measurement. Bedrock geology, topography, surficial geology, and proximity to surface waters were statistically significant hydrogeologic factors. Yield of wells was higher in areas of granites, mafic intrusive rocks, and amphibolites than in areas of schists and gneisses or pelitic rocks; higher in valleys and low-slope areas than on hills, ridges, or high slopes; higher in areas overlain by stratified glacial deposits than in areas overlain by till; and higher in close proximity to streams, ponds, and wetlands than at greater distances from these surface-water features. Proximity to mapped faults and to lineaments from aerial photographs also were related to well yield by some measures in three quadrangles in the study area. Although the statistical significance of these relations was high, their predictive power was low, and these relations explained little of the variability in the well-yield data. Similar results were determined from a multivariate regression analysis. Multivariate regression models for the Nashoba terrane and for a three-quadrangle subarea included, as significant variables, many of the cultural and hydrogeologic factors that were individually related to well yield, in ways that are consistent with conceptual understanding of their effects, but the models explained only 21 percent (regional model for the entire terrane) and 30 percent (quadrangle model) of the overall variance in yield. Moreover, most of the explained variance was due to well characteristics rather than hydrogeologic factors. Hydrogeologic factors such as topography and geology are likely important. However, the overall high variability in the well-yield data, which results from the high variability in aquifer hydraulic properties as well as from limitations of the dataset, would make it difficult to use hydrogeologic factors to predict well yield in the study area. Geostatistical analysis (variograms), on the other hand, indicated that, although highly variable, the well-yield data are spatially correlated. The spatial continuity appears greater in the northeast-southwest direction and less in the southeast-northwest direction, directions that are parallel and perpendicular, respectively, to the regional geologic structural trends. Geostatistical analysis (kriging), used to estimate yield values throughout the study area, identified regional-scale areas of higher and lower yield that may be related to regional structural features—in particular, to a northeast-southwest trending regional fault zone within the Nashoba terrane. It also would be difficult to use kriging to predict yield at specific locations, however, because of the spatial variability in yield, particularly at small scales. The regional-scale analyses in this study, both with hydrogeologic variables and geostatistics, provide a context for understanding the variability in well yield, rather a basis for precise predictions, and site-specific information would be needed to understand local conditions.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Region-Specific Sensitivity of Anemophilous Pollen Deposition to Temperature and Precipitation

PubMed Central

Donders, Timme H.; Hagemans, Kimberley; Dekker, Stefan C.; de Weger, Letty A.; de Klerk, Pim; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

2014-01-01

Understanding relations between climate and pollen production is important for several societal and ecological challenges, importantly pollen forecasting for pollinosis treatment, forensic studies, global change biology, and high-resolution palaeoecological studies of past vegetation and climate fluctuations. For these purposes, we investigate the role of climate variables on annual-scale variations in pollen influx, test the regional consistency of observed patterns, and evaluate the potential to reconstruct high-frequency signals from sediment archives. A 43-year pollen-trap record from the Netherlands is used to investigate relations between annual pollen influx, climate variables (monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation values), and the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index. Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that specifically in Alnus, Betula, Corylus, Fraxinus, Quercus and Plantago both temperature in the year prior to (T-1), as well as in the growing season (T), are highly significant factors (TApril rs between 0.30 [P<0.05[ and 0.58 [P<0.0001]; TJuli-1 rs between 0.32 [P<0.05[ and 0.56 [P<0.0001]) in the annual pollen influx of wind-pollinated plants. Total annual pollen prediction models based on multiple climate variables yield R2 between 0.38 and 0.62 (P<0.0001). The effect of precipitation is minimal. A second trapping station in the SE Netherlands, shows consistent trends and annual variability, suggesting the climate factors are regionally relevant. Summer temperature is thought to influence the formation of reproductive structures, while temperature during the flowering season influences pollen release. This study provides a first predictive model for seasonal pollen forecasting, and also aides forensic studies. Furthermore, variations in pollen accumulation rates from a sub-fossil peat deposit are comparable with the pollen trap data. This suggests that high frequency variability pollen records from natural archives reflect annual past climate variability, and can be used in palaeoecological and -climatological studies to bridge between population- and species-scale responses to climate forcing. PMID:25133631

Modeling the influence of atmospheric leading modes on the variability of the Arctic freshwater cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, L.; Sein, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2013-12-01

Global general circulation models show remarkable differences in modeling the Arctic freshwater cycle. While they agree on the general sinks and sources of the freshwater budget, they differ largely in the magnitude of the mean values as well as in the variability of the freshwater terms. Regional models can better resolve the complex topography and small scale processes, but they are often uncoupled, thus missing the air-sea interaction. Additionally, regional models mostly use some kind of salinity restoring or flux correction, thus disturbing the freshwater budget. Our approach to investigate the Arctic hydrologic cycle and its variability is a regional atmosphere-ocean model setup, consisting of the global ocean model MPIOM with high resolution in the Arctic coupled to the regional atmosphere model REMO. The domain of the atmosphere model covers all catchment areas of the rivers draining into the Arctic. To account for all sinks and sources of freshwater in the Arctic, we include a discharge model providing terrestrial lateral waterflows. We run the model without salinity restoring but with freshwater correction, which is set to zero in the Arctic. This allows for the analysis of a closed freshwater budget in the Artic region. We perform experiments for the second half of the 20th century and use data from the global model MPIOM/ECHAM5 performed with historical conditions, that was used within the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC, as forcing for our regional model. With this setup, we investigate how the dominant modes of large-scale atmospheric variability impact the variability in the freshwater components. We focus on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of winter mean sea level pressure, as well as on the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Siberian High. These modes have a large impact on the Arctic Ocean circulation as well as on the solid and liquid export through Fram Strait and through the Canadian archipelago. However, they cannot explain the variability in river runoff. We find that not only winter conditions are responsible for increased river runoff, but also an enhanced summer cyclone activity, especially over Eurasia.

Estimating variability in grain legume yields across Europe and the Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cernay, Charles; Ben-Ari, Tamara; Pelzer, Elise; Meynard, Jean-Marc; Makowski, David

2015-06-01

Grain legume production in Europe has recently come under scrutiny. Although legume crops are often promoted to provide environmental services, European farmers tend to turn to non-legume crops. It is assumed that high variability in legume yields explains this aversion, but so far this hypothesis has not been tested. Here, we estimate the variability of major grain legume and non-legume yields in Europe and the Americas from yield time series over 1961-2013. Results show that grain legume yields are significantly more variable than non-legume yields in Europe. These differences are smaller in the Americas. Our results are robust at the level of the statistical methods. In all regions, crops with high yield variability are allocated to less than 1% of cultivated areas. Although the expansion of grain legumes in Europe may be hindered by high yield variability, some species display risk levels compatible with the development of specialized supply chains.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

[Births prevalence of 27 selected congenital anomalies in 7 geographic regions of Argentina].

PubMed

Campaña, Hebe; Pawluk, Mariela S; López Camelo, Jorge S

2010-10-01

The aim of the present work was to estimate the frequency of 27 birth defects in 7 geographical regions of Argentina. Observational, cross-sectional, descriptive design. A sample of 21,844 new born with birth defects was selected, ascertained from 855,220 births, between 1994 and 2007, in 59 hospitals belonging to the ECLAMC network. In order to identify regions of high frequency a Poisson regression was used, adjusted by different hospitals from the same region. The model included a time variable to detect secular trends and 6 dummy variables for 7 predefined geographical regions: Metropolitana (MET); Pampa (PAM); Centro (CEN); Cuyo (CUY); Noroeste (NOA); Nordeste (NEA) and Patagonia (PAT). High frequencies regional analysis showed the following significant results: PAM: severe hypospadias; CEN: spina bifida, microtia, cleft lip with cleft palate, polycystic kidney, postaxial polydactyly and Down syndrome; CUY: postaxial polydactyly; NOA: omphalocele, gastroschisis, cleft lip without cleft palate, cleft lip with cleft palate, anorectal atresia/stenosis, indeterminate sex, preaxial polydactyly and pectoral agenesis; PAT: cleft lip without cleft palate. Out of the 27 congenital anomalies analyzed, fourteen showed a frequency significatively higher in one or more regions.

Study for urbanization corresponding to socio-economic activities in Savannaket, Laos using satellite remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimijiama, S.; Nagai, M.

2014-06-01

In Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), economic liberalization and deregulation facilitated by GMS Regional Economic Corporation Program (GMS-ECP) has triggered urbanization in the region. However, the urbanization rate and its linkage to socio-economic activities are ambiguous. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) determine the changes in urban area from 1972 to 2013 using remote sensing data, and (b) analyse the relationships between urbanization with respect to socio-economic activities in central Laos. The study employed supervised classification and human visible interpretation to determine changes in urbanization rate. Regression analysis was used to analyze the correlation between the urbanization rate and socio-economic variables. The result shows that the urban area increased significantly from 1972 to 2013. The socio-economic variables such as school enrollment, labour force, mortality rate, water source and sanitation highly correlated with the rate of urbanization during the period. The study concluded that identifying the highly correlated socio-economic variables with urbanization rate could enable us to conduct a further urbanization simulation. The simulation helps in designing policies for sustainable development.

Variable wide range of lens power and its improvement in a liquid-crystal lens using highly resistive films divided into two regions with different diameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, Marenori; Sato, Susumu

2018-05-01

The variable range of lens power of a liquid-crystal (LC) lens driven by two voltages is discussed on the basis of calculated and experimental results. The LC lens has two electrodes, which are a circularly hole-patterned electrode and a circular electrode, in addition to a common electrode, and highly resistive transparent films. The variable range of lens power increases with increasing driving voltage applied across the circularly hole-patterned electrode and the common electrode, and with decreasing diameter of highly resistive films. However, the optical-phase retardation profile tends to deviate from a parabolic curve in these cases. As a method to improve the trade-off properties, the highly resistive film is divided into two regions with different diameters, where the sheet resistance of an outer film is larger than that of an inner one. The improved LC lens has a lens power that varies in a wide range, and it exhibits a good parabolic phase retardation profile.

Quantifying interindividual variability and asymmetry of face-selective regions: a probabilistic functional atlas.

PubMed

Zhen, Zonglei; Yang, Zetian; Huang, Lijie; Kong, Xiang-Zhen; Wang, Xu; Dang, Xiaobin; Huang, Yangyue; Song, Yiying; Liu, Jia

2015-06-01

Face-selective regions (FSRs) are among the most widely studied functional regions in the human brain. However, individual variability of the FSRs has not been well quantified. Here we use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to localize the FSRs and quantify their spatial and functional variabilities in 202 healthy adults. The occipital face area (OFA), posterior and anterior fusiform face areas (pFFA and aFFA), posterior continuation of the superior temporal sulcus (pcSTS), and posterior and anterior STS (pSTS and aSTS) were delineated for each individual with a semi-automated procedure. A probabilistic atlas was constructed to characterize their interindividual variability, revealing that the FSRs were highly variable in location and extent across subjects. The variability of FSRs was further quantified on both functional (i.e., face selectivity) and spatial (i.e., volume, location of peak activation, and anatomical location) features. Considerable interindividual variability and rightward asymmetry were found in all FSRs on these features. Taken together, our work presents the first effort to characterize comprehensively the variability of FSRs in a large sample of healthy subjects, and invites future work on the origin of the variability and its relation to individual differences in behavioral performance. Moreover, the probabilistic functional atlas will provide an adequate spatial reference for mapping the face network. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

Optimization of Terrestrial Ecosystem Model Parameters Using Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Data With the Global Carbon Assimilation System (GCAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhuoqi; Chen, Jing M.; Zhang, Shupeng; Zheng, Xiaogu; Ju, Weiming; Mo, Gang; Lu, Xiaoliang

2017-12-01

The Global Carbon Assimilation System that assimilates ground-based atmospheric CO2 data is used to estimate several key parameters in a terrestrial ecosystem model for the purpose of improving carbon cycle simulation. The optimized parameters are the leaf maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C (Vmax25), the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration (Q10), and the soil carbon pool size. The optimization is performed at the global scale at 1° resolution for the period from 2002 to 2008. The results indicate that vegetation from tropical zones has lower Vmax25 values than vegetation in temperate regions. Relatively high values of Q10 are derived over high/midlatitude regions. Both Vmax25 and Q10 exhibit pronounced seasonal variations at middle-high latitudes. The maxima in Vmax25 occur during growing seasons, while the minima appear during nongrowing seasons. Q10 values decrease with increasing temperature. The seasonal variabilities of Vmax25 and Q10 are larger at higher latitudes. Optimized Vmax25 and Q10 show little seasonal variabilities at tropical regions. The seasonal variabilities of Vmax25 are consistent with the variabilities of LAI for evergreen conifers and broadleaf evergreen forests. Variations in leaf nitrogen and leaf chlorophyll contents may partly explain the variations in Vmax25. The spatial distribution of the total soil carbon pool size after optimization is compared favorably with the gridded Global Soil Data Set for Earth System. The results also suggest that atmospheric CO2 data are a source of information that can be tapped to gain spatially and temporally meaningful information for key ecosystem parameters that are representative at the regional and global scales.

Genetic polymorphisms in the amino acid transporters LAT1 and LAT2 in relation to the pharmacokinetics and side effects of melphalan.

PubMed

Kühne, Annett; Kaiser, Rolf; Schirmer, Markus; Heider, Ulrike; Muhlke, Sabine; Niere, Wiebke; Overbeck, Tobias; Hohloch, Karin; Trümper, Lorenz; Sezer, Orhan; Brockmöller, Jürgen

2007-07-01

Melphalan is widely used in the treatment of multiple myeloma. Pharmacokinetics of this alkylating drug shows high inter-individual variability. As melphalan is a phenylalanine derivative, the pharmacokinetic variability may be determined by genetic polymorphisms in the L-type amino acid transporters LAT1 (SLC7A5) and LAT2 (SLC7A8). Pharmacokinetics were analysed in 64 patients after first administration of intravenous melphalan. Severity of side effects was documented according to WHO criteria. Genomic DNA was analysed for polymorphisms in LAT1 and LAT2 by sequencing of the entire coding region, intron-exon boundaries and 2 kb upstream promoter region. Selected polymorphisms in the common heavy chain of both transporters, the protein 4F2hc (SLC3A2), were analysed by single nucleotide primer extension. Melphalan pharmacokinetics was highly variable with up to 6.2-fold differences in total clearance. A total of 44 polymorphisms were identified in LAT1 and 21 polymorphisms in LAT2. From all variants, only five were in the coding region and only one heterozygous non-synonymous polymorphism (Ala94Thr) was found in LAT2. Numerous polymorphisms were found in the LAT1 and LAT2 5'-flanking regions but did not correlate with expression of the respective genes. No significant correlations could be observed between the polymorphisms in 4F2hc, LAT1, and LAT2 with melphalan pharmacokinetics or with melphalan side effects. The study confirmed that these transporter genes are highly conserved, particularly in the coding sequences. Genetic variation in 4F2hc, LAT1, and LAT2 does not appear to be a major cause of inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetics and of adverse reactions to melphalan.

Microbial Functioning and Community Structure Variability in the Mesopelagic and Epipelagic Waters of the Subtropical Northeast Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Arístegui, Javier; Gasol, Josep M.; Herndl, Gerhard J.

2012-01-01

We analyzed the regional distribution of bulk heterotrophic prokaryotic activity (leucine incorporation) and selected single-cell parameters (cell viability and nucleic acid content) as parameters for microbial functioning, as well as bacterial and archaeal community structure in the epipelagic (0 to 200 m) and mesopelagic (200 to 1,000 m) subtropical Northeast Atlantic Ocean. We selectively sampled three contrasting regions covering a wide range of surface productivity and oceanographic properties within the same basin: (i) the eddy field south of the Canary Islands, (ii) the open-ocean NE Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, and (iii) the upwelling filament off Cape Blanc. In the epipelagic waters, a high regional variation in hydrographic parameters and bacterial community structure was detected, accompanied, however, by a low variability in microbial functioning. In contrast, mesopelagic microbial functioning was highly variable between the studied regions despite the homogeneous abiotic conditions found therein. More microbial functioning parameters indicated differences among the three regions within the mesopelagic (i.e., viability of cells, nucleic acid content, cell-specific heterotrophic activity, nanoflagellate abundance, prokaryote-to-nanoflagellate abundance ratio) than within the epipelagic (i.e., bulk activity, nucleic acid content, and nanoflagellate abundance) waters. Our results show that the mesopelagic realm in the Northeast Atlantic is, in terms of microbial activity, more heterogeneous than its epipelagic counterpart, probably linked to mesoscale hydrographical variations. PMID:22344670

High spatial resolution Mg/Al maps of the western Crisium and Sulpicius Gallus regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonfeld, E.

1982-01-01

High spatial resolution Mg/Al ratio maps of the western Crisium and Sulpicius Gallus regions of the moon are presented. The data is from the X-ray fluorescence experiment and the image enhancement technique in the Laplacian subtraction method using a special least-squares version of the Laplacian to reduce noise amplification. In the highlands region west of Mare Crisium several relatively small patches of smooth material have high local Mg/Al ratio similar to values found in mare sites, suggesting volcanism in the highlands. In the same highland region there were other smooth areas with no high Mg/Al local values and they are probably Cayley Formation material produced by impact mass wasting. The Sulpicius Gallus region has variable Mg/Al ratios. In this region there are several high Mg/Al ratio spots, two of which occur at the highland-mare interface. Another high Mg/Al ratio area corresponds to the Sulpicius Gallus Rima I region. The high Mg/Al ratio material in the Sulpicius Gallus region is probably pyroclastic.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Linear Modeling and Evaluation of Controls on Flow Response in Western Post-Fire Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxe, S.; Hogue, T. S.; Hay, L.

2015-12-01

This research investigates the impact of wildfires on watershed flow regimes throughout the western United States, specifically focusing on evaluation of fire events within specified subregions and determination of the impact of climate and geophysical variables in post-fire flow response. Fire events were collected through federal and state-level databases and streamflow data were collected from U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. 263 watersheds were identified with at least 10 years of continuous pre-fire daily streamflow records and 5 years of continuous post-fire daily flow records. For each watershed, percent changes in runoff ratio (RO), annual seven day low-flows (7Q2) and annual seven day high-flows (7Q10) were calculated from pre- to post-fire. Numerous independent variables were identified for each watershed and fire event, including topographic, land cover, climate, burn severity, and soils data. The national watersheds were divided into five regions through K-clustering and a lasso linear regression model, applying the Leave-One-Out calibration method, was calculated for each region. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used to determine the accuracy of the resulting models. The regions encompassing the United States along and west of the Rocky Mountains, excluding the coastal watersheds, produced the most accurate linear models. The Pacific coast region models produced poor and inconsistent results, indicating that the regions need to be further subdivided. Presently, RO and HF response variables appear to be more easily modeled than LF. Results of linear regression modeling showed varying importance of watershed and fire event variables, with conflicting correlation between land cover types and soil types by region. The addition of further independent variables and constriction of current variables based on correlation indicators is ongoing and should allow for more accurate linear regression modeling.

Modeling photovoltaic diffusion: an analysis of geospatial datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Carolyn; Drury, Easan; Lopez, Anthony; Elmore, Ryan; Margolis, Robert

2014-07-01

This study combines address-level residential photovoltaic (PV) adoption trends in California with several types of geospatial information—population demographics, housing characteristics, foreclosure rates, solar irradiance, vehicle ownership preferences, and others—to identify which subsets of geospatial information are the best predictors of historical PV adoption. Number of rooms, heating source and house age were key variables that had not been previously explored in the literature, but are consistent with the expected profile of a PV adopter. The strong relationship provided by foreclosure indicators and mortgage status have less of an intuitive connection to PV adoption, but may be highly correlated with characteristics inherent in PV adopters. Next, we explore how these predictive factors and model performance varies between different Investor Owned Utility (IOU) regions in California, and at different spatial scales. Results suggest that models trained with small subsets of geospatial information (five to eight variables) may provide similar explanatory power as models using hundreds of geospatial variables. Further, the predictive performance of models generally decreases at higher resolution, i.e., below ZIP code level since several geospatial variables with coarse native resolution become less useful for representing high resolution variations in PV adoption trends. However, for California we find that model performance improves if parameters are trained at the regional IOU level rather than the state-wide level. We also find that models trained within one IOU region are generally representative for other IOU regions in CA, suggesting that a model trained with data from one state may be applicable in another state.

FUNGAL-SPECIFIC PCR PRIMERS DEVELOPED FOR ANALYSIS OF THE ITS REGION OF ENVIRONMENTAL DNA EXTRACTS

EPA Science Inventory

Background The Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) regions of fungal ribosomal DNA (rDNA) are highly variable sequences of great importance in distinguishing fungal species by PCR analysis. Previously published PCR primers available for amplifying these sequences from environmenta...

Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2013-04-01

From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically relevant variables such as streamflow and groundwater recharge. Fundamental limitations in both the understanding of hydrological processes in mountain regions (e.g., glacier melt, wetland attenuation, groundwater flows) and in data availability introduce large uncertainties. Lastly, assessing access to water resources is a major challenge. Topographical gradients and barriers, as well as strong spatiotemporal variations in hydrological processes, makes it particularly difficult to assess which parts of the mountain population is most vulnerable to future perturbations of the water cycle.

Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Pilcher, Darren J.

2017-01-01

Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.

Global characteristics of stream flow seasonality and variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.

2000-01-01

Monthly stream flow series from 1345 sites around the world are used to characterize geographic differences in the seasonality and year-to-year variability of stream flow. Stream flow seasonality varies regionally, depending on the timing of maximum precipitation, evapotranspiration, and contributions from snow and ice. Lags between peaks of precipitation and stream flow vary smoothly from long delays in high-latitude and mountainous regions to short delays in the warmest sectors. Stream flow is most variable from year to year in dry regions of the southwest United States and Mexico, the Sahel, and southern continents, and it varies more (relatively) than precipitation in the same regions. Tropical rivers have the steadiest flows. El Nin??o variations are correlated with stream flow in many parts of the Americas, Europe, and Australia. Many stream flow series from North America, Europe, and the Tropics reflect North Pacific climate, whereas series from the eastern United States, Europe, and tropical South America and Africa reflect North Atlantic climate variations.

The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela.

PubMed

Grillet, María-Eugenia; El Souki, Mayida; Laguna, Francisco; León, José Rafael

2014-01-01

We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990-2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3-6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Niño event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria-climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial-temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

PubMed

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

[Variability in the implementation of health-promoting community activities in Spain].

PubMed

March, S; Soler, M; Miller, F; Montaner, I; Pérez Jarauta, M J; Ramos, M

2014-01-01

To describe the variability in the application of community activities (CA) promoting health, in support received, in training, and in evaluation of the participation of professionals, administration and social partners in these. Survey to key informants identified in each region with the help of the Spanish Society of Family and Community Medicine. The questionnaire included a definition of a health promotion community activity. The study was conducted in 2008. There was variability in community activities by region. The most involved professionals are nurses and social workers. Most of the regions (15 of 17) offer training in these issues to their professionals, especially in health education. It is less frequent to offer training to family medicine residents (10 of 17 regions) and to the different nursing specialties (6 of 17). The main institutional support comes from primary health care management, regional health services, municipalities, and public health services, and non-institutional support from scientific societies, civic associations and NGOs. On the evaluation of the involvement of different organizations and institutions in these activities, the only entities receiving pass grades were NGOs (3 out of 5) and primary health care (2.5 out of 5). There is a high variability in the ways of supporting and promoting community activities in each region and consequently in their dissemination and implementation by primary health care teams. Nurses and social workers are key players in this process.

Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].

Spatial variations in drainage efficiency in a boreal wetland environment as a function of lidar and radar-derived deviations from the regional hydraulic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, C.; Brisco, B.; Chasmer, L.; Devito, K.; Montgomery, J. S.; Patterson, S.; Petrone, R. M.

2017-12-01

The dense forest cover of the Western Boreal Plains of northern Alberta is underlain by a mix of glacial moraines, sandy outwash sediments and clay plains possessing spatially variable hydraulic conductivities. The region is also characterised by a large number of post-glacial surface depression wetlands that have seasonally and topographically limited surface connectivity. Consequently, drainage along shallow regional hydraulic gradients may be dominated either by variations in surface geology or local variations in Et. Long-term government lake level monitoring is sparse in this region, but over a decade of hydrometeorological monitoring has taken place around the Utikuma Regional Study Area (URSA), a research site led by the University of Alberta. In situ lake and ground water level data are here combined with time series of airborne lidar and RadarSat II synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to assess the spatial variability of water levels during late summer period characterised by flow recession. Long term Lidar data were collected or obtained by the authors in August of 2002, 2008, 2011 and 2016, while seasonal SAR data were captured approximately every 24 days during the summers of 2015, 2016 and 2017. Water levels for wetlands exceeding 100m2 in area across a north-trending 20km x 5km topographic gradient north of Utikuma Lake were extracted directly from the lidar and indirectly from the SAR. The recent seasonal variability in spatial water levels was extracted from SAR, while the lidar data illustrated more long term trends associated with land use and riparian vegetation succession. All water level data collected in August were combined and averaged at multiple scales using a raster focal statistics function to generate a long term spatial map of the regional hydraulic gradient and scale-dependent variations. Areas of indicated high and low drainage efficiency were overlain onto layers of landcover and surface geology to ascertain causal relationships. Areas associated with high spatial variability in water level illustrate reduced drainage connectivity, while areas of reduced variability indicate high surface connectivity and/or hydraulic conductivity. The hypothesis of surface geology controls on local wetland connectivity and landscape drainage efficiency is supported through this analysis.

Atmospheric water budget over the South Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.

2018-04-01

High resolution hybrid atmospheric water budget over the South Asian monsoon region is examined. The regional characteristics, variability, regional controlling factors and the interrelations of the atmospheric water budget components are investigated. The surface evapotranspiration was created using the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) with the satellite-observed rainfall and vegetation fraction. HRLDAS evapotranspiration shows significant similarity with in situ observations and MODIS satellite-observed evapotranspiration. Result highlights the fundamental importance of evapotranspiration over northwest and southeast India on atmospheric water balance. The investigation shows that the surface net radiation controls the annual evapotranspiration over those regions, where the surface evapotranspiration is lower than 550 mm. The rainfall and evapotranspiration show a linear relation over the low-rainfall regions (<500 mm/year). Similar result is observed in in NASA GLDAS data (1980-2014). The atmospheric water budget shows annual, seasonal, and intra-seasonal variations. Evapotranspiration does not show a high intra-seasonal variability as compared to other water budget components. The coupling among the water budget anomalies is investigated. The results show that regional inter-annual evapotranspiration anomalies are not exactly in phase with rainfall anomalies; it is strongly influenced by the surface conditions and other atmospheric forcing (like surface net radiation). The lead and lag correlation of water budget components show that the water budget anomalies are interrelated in the monsoon season even up to 4 months lead. These results show the important regional interrelation of water budget anomalies on south Asian monsoon.

South Asian high and Asian-Pacific-American climate teleconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peiqun; Song, Yang; Kousky, Vernon E.

2005-11-01

Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high (SAH), which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high (SWPH), the mid-Pacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Influence of the Bermuda High on interannual variability of summertime ozone in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuxuan; Jia, Beixi; Wang, Sing-Chun; Estes, Mark; Shen, Lu; Xie, Yuanyu

2016-12-01

The Bermuda High (BH) quasi-permanent pressure system is the key large-scale circulation pattern influencing summertime weather over the eastern and southern US. Here we developed a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to characterize the effect of the BH on year-to-year changes in monthly-mean maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) metropolitan region during June, July, and August (JJA). The BH indicators include the longitude of the BH western edge (BH-Lon) and the BH intensity index (BHI) defined as the pressure gradient along its western edge. Both BH-Lon and BHI are selected by MLR as significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the interannual (1990-2015) variability of the HGB-mean ozone throughout JJA, while local-scale meridional wind speed is selected as an additional predictor for August only. Local-scale temperature and zonal wind speed are not identified as important factors for any summer month. The best-fit MLR model can explain 61-72 % of the interannual variability of the HGB-mean summertime ozone over 1990-2015 and shows good performance in cross-validation (R2 higher than 0.48). The BH-Lon is the most important factor, which alone explains 38-48 % of such variability. The location and strength of the Bermuda High appears to control whether or not low-ozone maritime air from the Gulf of Mexico can enter southeastern Texas and affect air quality. This mechanism also applies to other coastal urban regions along the Gulf Coast (e.g., New Orleans, LA, Mobile, AL, and Pensacola, FL), suggesting that the BH circulation pattern can affect surface ozone variability through a large portion of the Gulf Coast.

Insights into hydroclimatic variability of Southern California since 125 ka, from multi-proxy analyses of alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, K. C.; MacDonald, G. M.; Kirby, M.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic variability is especially important in California, a water-stressed and increasingly populous region. We assess the range of past hydroclimatic sensitivity and variability in the San Bernardino Mountains of Southern California based on 125 ka of lacustrine sediment records. Geochemistry, charcoal and pollen highlight periods of sustained moisture, aridity and sudden variability driven by orbital and oceanic variations. Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) is one such period of greater moisture availability that lasted c. 30 kyr, with smaller-scale perturbations likely reflect North Atlantic Dansgaard-Oeschgar events. Past glacial periods, MIS 4 and MIS 2, display high-amplitude changes. These include periods of reduced forest cover that span millennia, indicating long-lasting aridity. Rapid forest expansion also occurs, marking sudden shifts towards wet conditions. Fire regimes have also changed in tandem with hydroclimate and vegetation. Higher-resolution analysis of the past 10 ka shows that Southern California hydroclimate was broadly similar to other regions of the Southwest and Great Basin, including an orbital and oceanic-driven wet Early Holocene, dry Mid-Holocene, and highly variable Late Holocene. Shorter-term pluvial conditions occur throughout the Holocene, with episodic moisture likely derived from a Pacific source.

Desmoglein 4 diversity and correlation analysis with coat color in goat.

PubMed

E, G X; Zhao, Y J; Ma, Y H; Cao, G L; He, J N; Na, R S; Zhao, Z Q; Jiang, C D; Zhang, J H; Arlvd, S; Chen, L P; Qiu, X Y; Hu, W; Huang, Y F

2016-03-04

Desmoglein 4 (DSG4) has an important role in the development of wool traits in domestic animals. The full-length DSG4 gene, which contains 3918 bp, a complete open-reading-frame, and encodes a 1040-amino acid protein, was amplified from Liaoning cashmere goat. The sequence was compared with that of DSG4 from other animals and the results show that the DSG4 coding region is consistent with interspecies conservation. Thirteen single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified in a highly variable region of DSG4, and one SNP (M-1, G>T) was significantly correlated with white and black coat color in goat. Haplotype distribution of the highly variable region of DSG4 was assessed in 179 individuals from seven goat breeds to investigate its association with coat color and its differentiation among populations. However, the lack of a signature result indicates DGS4 haplotypes related with the color of goat coat.

Constraints on the Genetic and Antigenic Variability of Measles Virus.

PubMed

Beaty, Shannon M; Lee, Benhur

2016-04-21

Antigenic drift and genetic variation are significantly constrained in measles virus (MeV). Genetic stability of MeV is exceptionally high, both in the lab and in the field, and few regions of the genome allow for rapid genetic change. The regions of the genome that are more tolerant of mutations (i.e., the untranslated regions and certain domains within the N, C, V, P, and M proteins) indicate genetic plasticity or structural flexibility in the encoded proteins. Our analysis reveals that strong constraints in the envelope proteins (F and H) allow for a single serotype despite known antigenic differences among its 24 genotypes. This review describes some of the many variables that limit the evolutionary rate of MeV. The high genomic stability of MeV appears to be a shared property of the Paramyxovirinae, suggesting a common mechanism that biologically restricts the rate of mutation.

Constraints on the Genetic and Antigenic Variability of Measles Virus

PubMed Central

Beaty, Shannon M.; Lee, Benhur

2016-01-01

Antigenic drift and genetic variation are significantly constrained in measles virus (MeV). Genetic stability of MeV is exceptionally high, both in the lab and in the field, and few regions of the genome allow for rapid genetic change. The regions of the genome that are more tolerant of mutations (i.e., the untranslated regions and certain domains within the N, C, V, P, and M proteins) indicate genetic plasticity or structural flexibility in the encoded proteins. Our analysis reveals that strong constraints in the envelope proteins (F and H) allow for a single serotype despite known antigenic differences among its 24 genotypes. This review describes some of the many variables that limit the evolutionary rate of MeV. The high genomic stability of MeV appears to be a shared property of the Paramyxovirinae, suggesting a common mechanism that biologically restricts the rate of mutation. PMID:27110809

Occurrence and multivariate exploratory analysis of the natural radioactivity anomaly in the south coastal region of Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaniu, M. I.; Angeyo, K. H.; Darby, I. G.

2018-05-01

Characterized by a variety of rock formations, namely alkaline, igneous and sedimentary that contain significant deposits of monazite and pyrochlore ores, the south coastal region of Kenya may be regarded as highly heterogeneous with regard to its geochemistry, mineralogy as well as geological morphology. The region is one of the several alkaline carbonatite complexes of Kenya that are associated with high natural background radiation and therefore radioactivity anomaly. However, this high background radiation (HBR) anomaly has hardly been systematically assessed and delineated with regard to the spatial, geological, geochemical as well as anthropogenic variability and co-dependencies. We conducted wide-ranging in-situ gamma-ray spectrometric measurements in this area. The goal of the study was to assess the radiation exposure as well as determine the underlying natural radioactivity levels in the region. In this paper we report the occurrence, exploratory analysis and modeling to assess the multivariate geo-dependence and spatial variability of the radioactivity and associated radiation exposure. Unsupervised principal component analysis and ternary plots were utilized in the study. It was observed that areas which exhibit HBR anomalies are located along the south coast paved road and in the Mrima-Kiruku complex. These areas showed a trend towards enhanced levels of 232Th and 238U and low 40K. The spatial variability of the radioactivity anomaly was found to be mainly constrained by anthropogenic activities, underlying geology and geochemical processes in the terrestrial environment.

Eddy-driven low-frequency variability: physics and observability through altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penduff, Thierry; Sérazin, Guillaume; Arbic, Brian; Mueller, Malte; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Morten, Andrew J.; Scott, Robert B.

2015-04-01

Model studies have revealed the propensity of the eddying ocean circulation to generate strong low-frequency variability (LFV) intrinsically, i.e. without low-frequency atmospheric variability. In the present study, gridded satellite altimeter products, idealized quasi-geostrophic (QG) turbulent simulations, and realistic high-resolution global ocean simulations are used to study the spontaneous tendency of mesoscale (relatively high frequency and high wavenumber) kinetic energy to non-linearly cascade towards larger time and space scales. The QG model reveals that large-scale variability, arising from the well-known spatial inverse cascade, is associated with low frequencies. Low-frequency, low-wavenumber energy is maintained primarily by nonlinearities in the QG model, with forcing (by large-scale shear) and friction playing secondary roles. In realistic simulations, nonlinearities also generally drive kinetic energy to low frequencies and low wavenumbers. In some, but not all, regions of the gridded altimeter product, surface kinetic energy is also found to cascade toward low frequencies. Exercises conducted with the realistic model suggest that the spatial and temporal filtering inherent in the construction of gridded satellite altimeter maps may contribute to the discrepancies seen in some regions between the direction of frequency cascade in models versus gridded altimeter maps. Finally, the range of frequencies that are highly energized and engaged these cascades appears much greater than the range of highly energized and engaged wavenumbers. Global eddying simulations, performed in the context of the CHAOCEAN project in collaboration with the CAREER project, provide estimates of the range of timescales that these oceanic nonlinearities are likely to feed without external variability.

Global conditions in the solar corona from 2010 to 2017

PubMed Central

Morgan, Huw; Taroyan, Youra

2017-01-01

Through reduction of a huge data set spanning 2010–2017, we compare mean global changes in temperature, emission measure (EM), and underlying photospheric magnetic field of the solar corona over most of the last activity cycle. The quiet coronal mean temperature rises from 1.4 to 1.8 MK, whereas EM increases by almost a factor of 50% from solar minimum to maximum. An increased high-temperature component near 3 MK at solar maximum drives the increase in quiet coronal mean temperature, whereas the bulk of the plasma remains near 1.6 MK throughout the cycle. The mean, spatially smoothed magnitude of the quiet Sun magnetic field rises from 1.6 G in 2011 to peak at 2.0 G in 2015. Active region conditions are highly variable, but their mean remains approximately constant over the cycle, although there is a consistent decrease in active region high-temperature emission (near 3 MK) between the peak of solar maximum and present. Active region mean temperature, EM, and magnetic field magnitude are highly correlated. Correlation between sunspot/active region area and quiet coronal conditions shows the important influence of decaying sunspots in driving global changes, although we find no appreciable delay between changes in active region area and quiet Sun magnetic field strength. The hot coronal contribution to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance is dominated by the quiet corona throughout most of the cycle, whereas the high variability is driven by active regions. Solar EUV irradiance cannot be predicted accurately by sunspot index alone, highlighting the need for continued measurements. PMID:28740861

Repeat migration and disappointment.

PubMed

Grant, E K; Vanderkamp, J

1986-01-01

This article investigates the determinants of repeat migration among the 44 regions of Canada, using information from a large micro-database which spans the period 1968 to 1971. The explanation of repeat migration probabilities is a difficult task, and this attempt is only partly successful. May of the explanatory variables are not significant, and the overall explanatory power of the equations is not high. In the area of personal characteristics, the variables related to age, sex, and marital status are generally significant and with expected signs. The distance variable has a strongly positive effect on onward move probabilities. Variables related to prior migration experience have an important impact that differs between return and onward probabilities. In particular, the occurrence of prior moves has a striking effect on the probability of onward migration. The variable representing disappointment, or relative success of the initial move, plays a significant role in explaining repeat migration probabilities. The disappointment variable represents the ratio of actural versus expected wage income in the year after the initial move, and its effect on both repeat migration probabilities is always negative and almost always highly significant. The repeat probabilities diminish after a year's stay in the destination region, but disappointment in the most recent year still has a bearing on the delayed repeat probabilities. While the quantitative impact of the disappointment variable is not large, it is difficult to draw comparisons since similar estimates are not available elsewhere.

A regional modeling framework of phosphorus sources and transport in streams of the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Ana Maria.; Hoos, Anne B.; Terziotti, Silvia

2011-01-01

We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land-to-water transport variables are significant (p < 0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long-term log-transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land-to-water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land-to-water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land-to-water variables – soil organic matter and soil pH – are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state-developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil-parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity.

Small-scale variability in tropical tropopause layer humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, E. J.; Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Karcher, B.; Podglajen, A.; Diskin, G. S.; DiGangi, J. P.; Thornberry, T. D.; Rollins, A. W.; Bui, T. V.; Woods, S.; Lawson, P.

2016-12-01

Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about -5/3 to -2.

Optimization of terrestrial ecosystem model parameters using atmospheric CO2 concentration data with a global carbon assimilation system (GCAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Chen, J.; Zhang, S.; Zheng, X.; Shangguan, W.

2016-12-01

A global carbon assimilation system (GCAS) that assimilates ground-based atmospheric CO2 data is used to estimate several key parameters in a terrestrial ecosystem model for the purpose of improving carbon cycle simulation. The optimized parameters are the leaf maximum carboxylation rate at 25° (Vmax25 ), the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration (Q10), and the soil carbon pool size. The optimization is performed at the global scale at 1°resolution for the period from 2002 to 2008. Optimized multi-year average Vmax25 values range from 49 to 51 μmol m-2 s-1 over most regions of world. Vegetation from tropical zones has relatively lower values than vegetation in temperate regions. Optimized multi-year average Q10 values varied from 1.95 to 2.05 over most regions of the world. Relatively high values of Q10 are derived over high/mid latitude regions. Both Vmax25 and Q10 exhibit pronounced seasonal variations at mid-high latitudes. The maximum in occurs during the growing season, while the minima appear during non-growing seasons. Q10 values decreases with increasing temperature. The seasonal variabilities of and Q10 are larger at higher latitudes with tropical or low latitude regions showing little seasonal variabilities.

Intergenic Sequence Ribotyping using a region neighboring dkgB links genovar to Kauffman-White serotype of Salmonella enterica

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Previous research identified that the 5S ribosomal (rrn) gene and associated flanking sequences that are closely linked to the dkgB gene of Salmonella enterica were highly variable between serotypes, but not between subpopulations within the same serotype (PMID: 17005008). The degree of variability ...

Comparative Molecular and Morphological Variation Analysis of Siderastrea (Anthozoa, Scleractinia) Reveals the Presence of Siderastrea stellata in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

García, Norberto A Colín; Campos, Jorge E; Musi, José L Tello; Forsman, Zac H; Muñoz, Jorge L Montero; Reyes, Alejandro Monsalvo; González, Jesús E Arias

2017-02-01

The genus Siderastrea exhibits high levels of morphological variability. Some of its species share similar morphological characteristics with congeners, making their identification difficult. Siderastrea stellata has been reported as an intermediary of S. siderea and S. radians in the Brazilian reef ecosystem. In an earlier study conducted in Mexico, we detected Siderastrea colonies with morphological features that were not consistent with some siderastreid species previously reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we performed a combined morphological and molecular analysis to identify Siderastrea species boundaries from the Gulf of Mexico. Some colonies presented high morphologic variability, with characteristics that corresponded to Siderastrea stellata. Molecular analysis, using the nuclear ITS and ITS2 region, corroborated the morphological results, revealing low genetic variability between S. radians and S. stellata. Since the ITS sequences did not distinguish between Siderastrea species, we used the ITS2 region to differentiate S. stellata from S. radians. This is the first report of Siderastrea stellata and its variability in the Gulf of Mexico that is supported by morphological and molecular analyses.

Hillslope terracing effects on the spatial variability of plant development as assessed by NDVI in vineyards of the Priorat region (NE Spain).

PubMed

Martínez-Casasnovas, José A; Ramos, María Concepción; Espinal-Utgés, Sílvia

2010-04-01

The availability of heavy machinery and the vineyard restructuring and conversion plans of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy (Commission Regulation EC no. 1227/2000 of 31 May 2000) have encouraged the restructuring of many vineyards on hillslopes of Mediterranean Europe, through the creation of terraces to favor the mechanization of agricultural work. Terrace construction requires cutting and filling operations that create soil spatial variability, which affects soil properties and plant development. In the present paper, we study the effects of hillslope terracing on the spatial variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in fields of the Priorat region (NE Spain) during 2004, 2005, and 2006. This index was computed from high-resolution remote sensing data (Quickbird-2). Detailed digital terrain models before and after terrace construction were used to assess the earth movements. The results indicate that terracing by heavy machinery induced high variability on the NDVI values over the years, showing significant differences as effect of the cut and fill operations.

Diurnal variability of regional cloud and clear-sky radiative parameters derived from GOES data. I - Analysis method. II - November 1978 cloud distributions. III - November 1978 radiative parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, P.; Harrison, E. F.

1984-01-01

Cloud cover is one of the most important variables affecting the earth radiation budget (ERB) and, ultimately, the global climate. The present investigation is concerned with several aspects of the effects of extended cloudiness, taking into account hourly visible and infrared data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satelite (GOES). A methodology called the hybrid bispectral threshold method is developed to extract regional cloud amounts at three levels in the atmosphere, effective cloud-top temperatures, clear-sky temperature and cloud and clear-sky visible reflectance characteristics from GOES data. The diurnal variations are examined in low, middle, high, and total cloudiness determined with this methodology for November 1978. The bulk, broadband radiative properties of the resultant cloud and clear-sky data are estimated to determine the possible effect of the diurnal variability of regional cloudiness on the interpretation of ERB measurements.

Land change variability and human-environment dynamics in the United States Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drummond, M.A.; Auch, Roger F.; Karstensen, K.A.; Sayler, K. L.; Taylor, Janis L.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2012-01-01

Land use and land cover changes have complex linkages to climate variability and change, biophysical resources, and socioeconomic driving forces. To assess these land change dynamics and their causes in the Great Plains, we compare and contrast contemporary changes across 16 ecoregions using Landsat satellite data and statistical analysis. Large-area change analysis of agricultural regions is often hampered by change detection error and the tendency for land conversions to occur at the local-scale. To facilitate a regional-scale analysis, a statistical sampling design of randomly selected 10 km × 10 km blocks is used to efficiently identify the types and rates of land conversions for four time intervals between 1973 and 2000, stratified by relatively homogenous ecoregions. Nearly 8% of the overall Great Plains region underwent land-use and land-cover change during the study period, with a substantial amount of ecoregion variability that ranged from less than 2% to greater than 13%. Agricultural land cover declined by more than 2% overall, with variability contingent on the differential characteristics of regional human–environment systems. A large part of the Great Plains is in relatively stable land cover. However, other land systems with significant biophysical and climate limitations for agriculture have high rates of land change when pushed by economic, policy, technology, or climate forcing factors. The results indicate the regionally based potential for land cover to persist or fluctuate as land uses are adapted to spatially and temporally variable forcing factors.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

2017-12-01

Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

Malaria control under unstable dynamics: reactive vs. climate-based strategies.

PubMed

Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dhiman, Ramesh; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

In areas of the world where malaria prevails under unstable conditions, attacking the adult vector population through insecticide-based Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) is the most common method for controlling epidemics. Defined in policy guidance, the use of Annual Parasitic Incidence (API) is an important tool for assessing the effectiveness of control and for planning new interventions. To investigate the consequences that a policy based on API in previous seasons might have on the population dynamics of the disease and on control itself in regions of low and seasonal transmission, we formulate a mathematical malaria model that couples epidemiologic and vector dynamics with IRS intervention. This model is parameterized for a low transmission and semi-arid region in northwest India, where epidemics are driven by high rainfall variability. We show that this type of feedback mechanism in control strategies can generate transient cycles in malaria even in the absence of environmental variability, and that this tendency to cycle can in turn limit the effectiveness of control in the presence of such variability. Specifically, for realistic rainfall conditions and over a range of control intensities, the effectiveness of such 'reactive' intervention is compared to that of an alternative strategy based on rainfall and therefore vector variability. Results show that the efficacy of intervention is strongly influenced by rainfall variability and the type of policy implemented. In particular, under an API 'reactive' policy, high vector populations can coincide more frequently with low control coverage, and in so doing generate large unexpected epidemics and decrease the likelihood of elimination. These results highlight the importance of incorporating information on climate variability, rather than previous incidence, in planning IRS interventions in regions of unstable malaria. These findings are discussed in the more general context of elimination and other low transmission regions such as highlands. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spatially Resolving Ocean Color and Sediment Dispersion in River Plumes, Coastal Systems, and Continental Shelf Waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aurin, Dirk Alexander; Mannino, Antonio; Franz, Bryan

2013-01-01

Satellite remote sensing of ocean color in dynamic coastal, inland, and nearshorewaters is impeded by high variability in optical constituents, demands specialized atmospheric correction, and is limited by instrument sensitivity. To accurately detect dispersion of bio-optical properties, remote sensors require ample signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to sense small variations in ocean color without saturating over bright pixels, an atmospheric correction that can accommodate significantwater-leaving radiance in the near infrared (NIR), and spatial and temporal resolution that coincides with the scales of variability in the environment. Several current and historic space-borne sensors have met these requirements with success in the open ocean, but are not optimized for highly red-reflective and heterogeneous waters such as those found near river outflows or in the presence of sediment resuspension. Here we apply analytical approaches for determining optimal spatial resolution, dominant spatial scales of variability ("patches"), and proportions of patch variability that can be resolved from four river plumes around the world between 2008 and 2011. An offshore region in the Sargasso Sea is analyzed for comparison. A method is presented for processing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua and Terra imagery including cloud detection, stray lightmasking, faulty detector avoidance, and dynamic aerosol correction using short-wave- and near-infrared wavebands in extremely turbid regions which pose distinct optical and technical challenges. Results showthat a pixel size of approx. 520 mor smaller is generally required to resolve spatial heterogeneity in ocean color and total suspended materials in river plumes. Optimal pixel size increases with distance from shore to approx. 630 m in nearshore regions, approx 750 m on the continental shelf, and approx. 1350 m in the open ocean. Greater than 90% of the optical variability within plume regions is resolvable with 500 m resolution, and small, but significant, differences were found between peak and nadir river flow periods in terms of optimal resolution and resolvable proportion of variability.

Evaluation of common bean lines for adaptation to high temperatures in Honduras

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As in other regions worldwide, common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) production in Central America and the Caribbean (CA/C) region is threatened by effects of climate change including increasing temperatures and drought due to variable rainfall patterns. One of the main alternatives for increasing ada...

REGIONAL ASSESSMENT OF METHANE EMISSION RATES FROM RESERVOIRS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Reservoirs are a globally significant source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere, but regional and global emission estimates are poorly constrained due to high variability in emission rates among reservoirs and a lack of measurements in some areas geographic areas. Methane emissi...

REGIONALLY APPROPRIATE SUSTAINABLE DESIGN: URBAN GREEN ROOF APPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATE CONTINENTAL CLIMATES

EPA Science Inventory

As a strategy for sustainable development, green roof technology is gaining acceptance in the U.S. However, widespread adoption in highly variable continental climates, such as the Upper Midwest (EPA Region 5), lags behind green roof use in cities with simi...

Patterns in the Physical, Chemical, and Biological Composition of Icelandic Lakes and the Dominant Factors Controlling Variability Across Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, A.; Strock, K.; Edwards, B. R.

2017-12-01

Fourteen lakes were sampled in the southern and western area of Iceland in June of 2017. The southern systems, within the Eastern Volcanic Zone, have minimal soil development and active volcanoes that produce ash input to lakes. Lakes in the Western Volcanic Zone were more diverse and located in older bedrock with more extensively weathered soil. Physical variables (temperature, oxygen concentration, and water clarity), chemical variables (pH, conductivity, dissolved and total nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and dissolved organic carbon concentration), and biological variables (algal biomass) were compared across the lakes sampled in these geographic regions. There was a large range in lake characteristics, including five to eighteen times higher algal biomass in the southern systems that experience active ash input to lakes. The lakes located in the Eastern Volcanic Zone also had higher conductivity and lower pH, especially in systems receiving substantial geothermal input. These results were analyzed in the context of more extensive lake sampling efforts across Iceland (46 lakes) to determine defining characteristics of lakes in each region and to identify variables that drive heterogeneous patterns in physical, chemical, and biological lake features within each region. Coastal systems, characterized by high conductivity, and glacially-fed systems, characterized by high iron concentrations, were unique from lakes in all other regions. Clustering and principal component analyses revealed that lake type (plateau, valley, spring-fed, and direct-runoff) was not the primary factor explaining variability in lake chemistry outside of the coastal and glacial lake types. Instead, lakes differentiated along a gradient of iron concentration and total nitrogen concentration. The physical and chemical properties of subarctic lakes are especially susceptible to both natural and human-induced environmental impacts. However, relatively little is known about the contemporary physical and chemical properties of Icelandic lakes, despite their abundance and importance as freshwater resources. Here we report an analysis of the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of a set of subarctic lakes and use spatial Information to infer controls on lake heterogeneity within and across regions.

Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana P.; Hodes, Jared L.; Arulraj, Malarvizhi

2017-10-01

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), wavelet, and wavelet coherence analysis of baseflow time-series from 126 streamgauges (record-length > 50 years; small and mid-size watersheds) in the US South Atlantic (USSA) region reveal three principal modes of space-time variability: (1) a region-wide dominant mode tied to annual precipitation that exhibits non-stationary decadal variability after the mid 1990s concurrent with the warming of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation); (2) two spatial modes, east and west of the Blue Ridge, exhibiting nonstationary seasonal to sub-decadal variability before and after 1990 attributed to complex nonlinear interactions between ENSO and AMO impacting precipitation and recharge; and (3) deep (decadal) and shallow (< 6 years) space-time modes of groundwater variability separating basins with high and low annual mean baseflow fraction (MBF) by physiographic region. The results explain the propagation of multiscale climate variability into the regional groundwater system through recharge modulated by topography, geomorphology, and geology to determine the spatial organization of baseflow variability at decadal (and longer) time-scales, that is, deep hydrologic drought. Further, these findings suggest potential for long-range predictability of hydrological drought in small and mid-size watersheds, where baseflow is a robust indicator of nonstationary yield capacity of the underlying groundwater basins. Predictive associations between climate mode indices and deep baseflow (e.g. persistent decreases of the decadal-scale components of baseflow during the cold phase of the AMO in the USSA) can be instrumental toward improving forecast lead-times and long-range mitigation of severe drought.

Analysis of biophysical and anthropogenic variables and their relation to the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass illustrated for North and East Kalimantan, Borneo.

PubMed

Van der Laan, Carina; Verweij, Pita A; Quiñones, Marcela J; Faaij, André Pc

2014-12-01

Land use and land cover change occurring in tropical forest landscapes contributes substantially to carbon emissions. Better insights into the spatial variation of aboveground biomass is therefore needed. By means of multiple statistical tests, including geographically weighted regression, we analysed the effects of eight variables on the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass. North and East Kalimantan were selected as the case study region; the third largest carbon emitting Indonesian provinces. Strong positive relationships were found between aboveground biomass and the tested variables; altitude, slope, land allocation zoning, soil type, and distance to the nearest fire, road, river and city. Furthermore, the results suggest that the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass can be largely attributed to altitude, distance to nearest fire and land allocation zoning. Our study showed that in this landscape, aboveground biomass could not be explained by one single variable; the variables were interrelated, with altitude as the dominant variable. Spatial analyses should therefore integrate a variety of biophysical and anthropogenic variables to provide a better understanding of spatial variation in aboveground biomass. Efforts to minimise carbon emissions should incorporate the identified factors, by 1) the maintenance of lands with high AGB or carbon stocks, namely in the identified zones at the higher altitudes; and 2) regeneration or sustainable utilisation of lands with low AGB or carbon stocks, dependent on the regeneration capacity of the vegetation. Low aboveground biomass densities can be found in the lowlands in burned areas, and in non-forest zones and production forests.

Identifying the fingerprints of the anthropogenic component of land use/land cover changes on regional climate of the USA high plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutiibwa, D.; Irmak, S.

2011-12-01

The majority of recent climate change studies have largely focused on detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcings of greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. However, there is growing evidence that land cover/land use (LULC) change can significantly impact atmospheric processes from local to regional weather and climate variability. Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of the land surfaces including albedo, energy balance, moisture-holding capacity of soil, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, and ultimately impact the climate system. The challenge is to demonstrate that LULC changes produce a signal that can be discerned from natural climate noise. In this study, we attempt to detect the signature of anthropogenic forcing of LULC change on climate on regional scale. The signal projector investigated for detecting the signature of LULC changes on regional climate of the High Plains of the USA is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI is an indicator that captures short and long-term geographical distribution of vegetation surfaces. The study develops an enhanced signal processing procedure to maximize the signal to noise ratio by introducing a pre-filtering technique of ARMA processes on the investigated climate and signal variables, before applying the optimal fingerprinting technique to detect the signals of LULC changes on observed climate, temperature, in the High Plains. The intent is to filter out as much noise as possible while still retaining the essential features of the signal by making use of the known characteristics of the noise and the anticipated signal. The study discusses the approach of identifying and suppressing the autocorrelation in optimal fingerprint analysis by applying linear transformation of ARMA processes to the analysis variables. With the assumption that natural climate variability is a near stationary process, the pre-filters are developed to generate stationary residuals. The High Plains region although impacted by droughts over the last three decades has had an increase in agricultural lands, both irrigated and non-irrigated. The study shows that for the most part of the High Plains region there is significant influence of evaporative cooling on regional climate during the summer months. As the vegetation coverage increases coupled with increased in irrigation application, the regional daytime surface energy in summer is increasingly redistributed into latent heat flux which increases the effect of evaporative cooling on summer temperatures. We included the anthropogenic forcing of CO2 on regional climate with the main purpose of surpassing the radiative heating effect of greenhouse gases from natural climate noise, to enhance the LULC signal-to-noise ratio. The warming signal due to greenhouse gas forcing is observed to be weakest in the central part of the High Plains. The results showed that the CO2 signal in the region was weak or is being surpassed by the evaporative cooling effect.

Modelling ecological flow regime: an example from the Tennessee and Cumberland River basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Gain, W. Scott; Wolfe, William J.

2012-01-01

Predictive equations were developed for 19 ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics within five major groups of flow variables (magnitude, ratio, frequency, variability, and date) for use in the Tennessee and Cumberland River basins using stepbackward regression. Basin characteristics explain 50% or more of the variation for 12 of the 19 equations. Independent variables identified through stepbackward regression were statistically significant in 78 of 304 cases (α > 0.0001) and represent four major groups: climate, physical landscape features, regional indicators, and land use. Of these groups, the regional and climate variables were the most influential for determining hydrologic response. Daily temperature range, geologic factor, and rock depth were major factors explaining the variability in 17, 15, and 13 equations, respectively. The equations and independent datasets were used to explore the broad relation between basin properties and streamflow and the implication of streamflow to the study of ecological flow requirements. Key results include a high degree of hydrologic variability among least disturbed Blue Ridge streams, similar hydrologic behaviour for watersheds with widely varying degrees of forest cover, and distinct hydrologic profiles for streams in different geographic regions. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Drivers of Variability in Public-Supply Water Use Across the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worland, Scott C.; Steinschneider, Scott; Hornberger, George M.

2018-03-01

This study explores the relationship between municipal water use and an array of climate, economic, behavioral, and policy variables across the contiguous U.S. The relationship is explored using Bayesian-hierarchical regression models for over 2,500 counties, 18 covariates, and three higher-level grouping variables. Additionally, a second analysis is included for 83 cities where water price and water conservation policy information is available. A hierarchical model using the nine climate regions (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as the higher-level groups results in the best out-of-sample performance, as estimated by the Widely Available Information Criterion, compared to counties grouped by urban continuum classification or primary economic activity. The regression coefficients indicate that the controls on water use are not uniform across the nation: e.g., counties in the Northeast and Northwest climate regions are more sensitive to social variables, whereas counties in the Southwest and East North Central climate regions are more sensitive to environmental variables. For the national city-level model, it appears that arid cities with a high cost of living and relatively low water bills sell more water per customer, but as with the county-level model, the effect of each variable depends heavily on where a city is located.

Seasonal precipitation forecasting for the Melbourne region using a Self-Organizing Maps approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidoto, Ross; Wallner, Markus; Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

The Melbourne region experiences highly variable inter-annual rainfall. For close to a decade during the 2000s, below average rainfall seriously affected the environment, water supplies and agriculture. A seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the Melbourne region based on the novel approach of a Self-Organizing Map has been developed and tested for its prediction performance. Predictor variables at varying lead times were first assessed for inclusion within the model by calculating their importance via Random Forests. Predictor variables tested include the climate indices SOI, DMI and N3.4, in addition to gridded global sea surface temperature data. Five forecasting models were developed: an annual model and four seasonal models, each individually optimized for performance through Pearson's correlation r and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The annual model showed a prediction performance of r = 0.54 and NSE = 0.14. The best seasonal model was for spring, with r = 0.61 and NSE = 0.31. Autumn was the worst performing seasonal model. The sea surface temperature data contributed fewer predictor variables compared to climate indices. Most predictor variables were supplied at a minimum lead, however some predictors were found at lead times of up to a year.

Seabed mapping and characterization of sediment variability using the usSEABED data base

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goff, J.A.; Jenkins, C.J.; Jeffress, Williams S.

2008-01-01

We present a methodology for statistical analysis of randomly located marine sediment point data, and apply it to the US continental shelf portions of usSEABED mean grain size records. The usSEABED database, like many modern, large environmental datasets, is heterogeneous and interdisciplinary. We statistically test the database as a source of mean grain size data, and from it provide a first examination of regional seafloor sediment variability across the entire US continental shelf. Data derived from laboratory analyses ("extracted") and from word-based descriptions ("parsed") are treated separately, and they are compared statistically and deterministically. Data records are selected for spatial analysis by their location within sample regions: polygonal areas defined in ArcGIS chosen by geography, water depth, and data sufficiency. We derive isotropic, binned semivariograms from the data, and invert these for estimates of noise variance, field variance, and decorrelation distance. The highly erratic nature of the semivariograms is a result both of the random locations of the data and of the high level of data uncertainty (noise). This decorrelates the data covariance matrix for the inversion, and largely prevents robust estimation of the fractal dimension. Our comparison of the extracted and parsed mean grain size data demonstrates important differences between the two. In particular, extracted measurements generally produce finer mean grain sizes, lower noise variance, and lower field variance than parsed values. Such relationships can be used to derive a regionally dependent conversion factor between the two. Our analysis of sample regions on the US continental shelf revealed considerable geographic variability in the estimated statistical parameters of field variance and decorrelation distance. Some regional relationships are evident, and overall there is a tendency for field variance to be higher where the average mean grain size is finer grained. Surprisingly, parsed and extracted noise magnitudes correlate with each other, which may indicate that some portion of the data variability that we identify as "noise" is caused by real grain size variability at very short scales. Our analyses demonstrate that by applying a bias-correction proxy, usSEABED data can be used to generate reliable interpolated maps of regional mean grain size and sediment character. 

Interannual variability in the magnitude and timing of the spring bloom in the Oyashio region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, Suguru; Hirawake, Toru; Saitoh, Sei-Ichi

2010-09-01

Inter-annual variability in the magnitude and timing of the spring bloom was investigated for the Oyashio region (40 °-48 °N, 143 °E-152 °E) using 10 years (from 1998 to 2007) of satellite ocean-color data. Geostrophic currents were examined using satellite altimeter data. Early spring blooms (>1.5 mg m -3) occurred in early April 2001 and late March 2002. The 2001 bloom continued for one month. Late blooms occurred from mid-May 1999, early June 2004 and late April 2006, continuing for about 1 month, 8 days and 16 days, respectively. A strong bloom (4.7 mg m -3) also occurred in mid-April 1998; however, it terminated in early May. We classified the Oyashio region based on the pattern of temporal variation of Chl- a concentr ation from March to June. The spatio-temporal variability in Chl- a concentr ation during spring was different among years. The area where Chl- a concentr ation was highest in April was more extensive in 2001, 2002 and 2006 than usual. In 1999, the area where Chl- a concentr ation was highest in May was the widest among the 10 years. Mesoscale eddies and currents with high velocity were frequently observed in the area of high Chl- a concentr ation east of Hokkaido, propagating Coastal Oyashio Water of low salinity and low density into the oceanic region. That strengthened stratification in the surface layer. We suggest that this seaward transfer of coastal water could be one of the important factors for phytoplankton distribution in two ways: (1) horizontal advection of water with high Chl- a concentr ation and (2) enhancement of stratification in the oceanic region.

Regional patterns of dead wood in forested habitats of Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Janet L. Ohmann; Karen L. Waddell

2002-01-01

We describe regional patterns of variation in dead wood across 20 million ha of upland forests of all ownerships in Oregon and Washington, based on an analysis of data on snags and down wood collected on over 16,000 field plots. Current patterns of dead wood are highly variable and complex. The strongest differences were among nine habitats that reflect strong regional...

High-resolution, regional-scale crop yield simulations for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stack, D. H.; Kafatos, M.; Medvigy, D.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.; Asrar, G. R.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades, there have been many process-based crop models developed with the goal of better understanding the impacts of climate, soils, and management decisions on crop yields. These models simulate the growth and development of crops in response to environmental drivers. Traditionally, process-based crop models have been run at the individual farm level for yield optimization and management scenario testing. Few previous studies have used these models over broader geographic regions, largely due to the lack of gridded high-resolution meteorological and soil datasets required as inputs for these data intensive process-based models. In particular, assessment of regional-scale yield variability due to climate change requires high-resolution, regional-scale, climate projections, and such projections have been unavailable until recently. The goal of this study was to create a framework for extending the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model for use at regional scales and analyze spatial and temporal yield changes in the Southwestern United States (CA, AZ, and NV). Using the scripting language Python, an automated pipeline was developed to link Regional Climate Model (RCM) output with the APSIM crop model, thus creating a one-way nested modeling framework. This framework was used to combine climate, soil, land use, and agricultural management datasets in order to better understand the relationship between climate variability and crop yield at the regional-scale. Three different RCMs were used to drive APSIM: OLAM, RAMS, and WRF. Preliminary results suggest that, depending on the model inputs, there is some variability between simulated RCM driven maize yields and historical yields obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Furthermore, these simulations showed strong non-linear correlations between yield and meteorological drivers, with critical threshold values for some of the inputs (e.g. minimum and maximum temperature), beyond which the yields were negatively affected. These results are now being used for further regional-scale yield analysis as the aforementioned framework is adaptable to multiple geographic regions and crop types.

Increasing importance of precipitation variability on global livestock grazing lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloat, Lindsey L.; Gerber, James S.; Samberg, Leah H.; Smith, William K.; Herrero, Mario; Ferreira, Laerte G.; Godde, Cécile M.; West, Paul C.

2018-03-01

Pastures and rangelands underpin global meat and milk production and are a critical resource for millions of people dependent on livestock for food security1,2. Forage growth, which is highly climate dependent3,4, is potentially vulnerable to climate change, although precisely where and to what extent remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we assess climate-based threats to global pastures, with a specific focus on changes in within- and between-year precipitation variability (precipitation concentration index (PCI) and coefficient of variation of precipitation (CVP), respectively). Relating global satellite measures of vegetation greenness (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) to key climatic factors reveals that CVP is a significant, yet often overlooked, constraint on vegetation productivity across global pastures. Using independent stocking data, we found that areas with high CVP support lower livestock densities than less-variable regions. Globally, pastures experience about a 25% greater year-to-year precipitation variation (CVP = 0.27) than the average global land surface area (0.21). Over the past century, CVP has generally increased across pasture areas, although both positive (49% of pasture area) and negative (31% of pasture area) trends exist. We identify regions in which livestock grazing is important for local food access and economies, and discuss the potential for pasture intensification in the context of long-term regional trends in precipitation variability.

[Spatio-temporal analysis of the biophysical and ecological conditions of Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) in the northeast region of Colombia].

PubMed

Badel-Mogollón, Jaime; Rodríguez-Figueroa, Laura; Parra-Henao, Gabriel

2017-03-29

Due to the lack of information regarding biophysical and spatio-temporal conditions (hydrometheorologic and vegetal coverage density) in areas with Triatoma dimidiata in the Colombian departments of Santander and Boyacá, there is a need to elucidate the association patterns of these variables to determine the distribution and control of this species. To make a spatio-temporal analysis of biophysical variables related to the distribution of T. dimidiate observed in the northeast region of Colombia. We used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) data bases registering vector presence and hydrometheorologic data. We studied the variables of environmental temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and vegetal coverage density at regional and local levels, and we conducted spatial geostatistic, descriptive statistical and Fourier temporal series analyses. Temperatures two meters above the ground and on covered surface ranged from 14,5°C to 18,8°C in the areas with the higher density of T. dimidiata. The environmental temperature fluctuated between 30 and 32°C. Vegetal coverage density and rainfall showed patterns of annual and biannual peaks. Relative humidity values fluctuated from 66,8 to 85,1%. Surface temperature and soil coverage were the variables that better explained the life cycle of T. dimidiata in the area. High relative humidity promoted the seek of shelters and an increase of the geographic distribution in the annual and biannual peaks of regional rainfall. The ecologic and anthropic conditions suggest that T. dimidiata is a highly resilient species.

Implementation of a Time Series Analysis for the Assessment of the Role of Climate Variability in a Post-Disturbance Savanna System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbes, C.; Southworth, J.; Waylen, P. R.

2013-05-01

How do climate variability and climate change influence vegetation cover and vegetation change in savannas? A landscape scale investigation of the effect of changes in precipitation on vegetation is undertaken through the employment of a time series analysis. The multi-national study region is located within the Kavango-Zambezi region, and is delineated by the Okavango, Kwando, and Zambezi watersheds. A mean-variance time-series analysis quantifies vegetation dynamics and characterizes vegetation response to climate. The spatially explicit approach used to quantify the persistence of vegetation productivity permits the extraction of information regarding long term climate-landscape dynamics. Results show a pattern of reduced mean annual precipitation and increased precipitation variability across key social and ecological areas within the study region. Despite decreased mean annual precipitation since the mid to late 1970's vegetation trends predominantly indicate increasing biomass. The limited areas which have diminished vegetative cover relate to specific vegetation types, and are associated with declines in precipitation variability. Results indicate that in addition to short term changes in vegetation cover, long term trends in productive biomass are apparent, relate to spatial differences in precipitation variability, and potentially represent shifts vegetation composition. This work highlights the importance of time-series analyses for examining climate-vegetation linkages in a spatially explicit manner within a highly vulnerable region of the world.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Dulce; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Naughton, Filipa; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Grimalt, Joan O.; Martrat, Belen; Voelker, Antje H. L.; Trigo, Ricardo; Hodell, David; Abrantes, Fátima; Desprat, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the ;super interglacial; MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast, forest declines during MIS 31 are associated to neither SST cooling nor high-latitude freshwater forcing. Time-series analysis reveals a dominant cyclicity of about 6 ky in the temperate forest record, which points to a potential link with the fourth harmonic of precession and thus low-latitude insolation forcing.

Exploring the Links in Monthly to Decadal Variability of the Atmospheric Water Balance Over the Wettest Regions in ERA-20C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, M.

2017-10-01

Monthly-to-decadal variability of the regional precipitation over Intertropical Convergence Zone and north-Atlantic and north-Pacific storm tracks was investigated using ERA-20C reanalysis. Satellite-based precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) climatological patterns were well reproduced by ERA-20C. Regional P and E monthly time series displayed 20% differences, but these decreased rapidly with time scale ( 10% at yearly time scales). Spectral analysis showed good scale-by-scale statistical agreement between ERA-20C and observations. Using ERA-Interim showed no improvement despite the much wider range of information assimilated (including satellites). Remarkably high Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis coefficients (ρDCCA > 0.7 and often ρDCCA > 0.9) revealed tight links between the nonperiodic variability of P, moisture divergence (DIV), and pressure velocity (ω) at monthly-to-decadal time scales over all the wet regions. In contrast, ρDCCA was essentially nonsignificant between nonperiodic P and E or sea surface temperature (SST). Thus, the nonperiodic monthly-to-decadal variability of precipitation in these regions is almost fully controlled by dynamics and not by local E or SST (suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron relation). Analysis of regional nonperiodic standard deviations and power spectra (and respective spectral exponents, β) provided further robustness to this conclusion. Finally, clear transitions in β for P, DIV, and ω between tropical and storm track regions were found. The latter is dominated by transient storms, with energy accumulation at synoptic scales and β < 0.1 at monthly-to-decadal time scales, implying that variability and information creation decrease rapidly with time scale. Larger β values (0.2 to 0.4) were found in the tropics, implying longer-range autocorrelations and slower decreasing variability and information creation with time scale, consistent with the important forcing from internal modes of variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

Reconstructing the leading mode of multi-decadal North Atlantic variability over the last two millenia using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

The increasing availability of high-resolution North Atlantic paleoclimate proxies allows to not only study local climate variations in time, but also temporal changes in spatial variability patterns across the entire region possibly controlled by large-scale coherent variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In this study, we use functional paleoclimate network analysis [1,2] to investigate changes in the statistical similarity patterns among an ensemble of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe included in the Arctic 2k data base. Specifically, we construct complex networks capturing the mutual statistical similarity of inter-annual temperature variability recorded in tree ring records, ice cores and lake sediments for multidecadal time windows covering the last two millenia. The observed patterns of co-variability are ultimately connected to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and most prominently to multidecadal variations of the NAO. Based on the inferred networks, we study the dynamical similarity between regional clusters of archives defined according to present-day inter-annual temperature variations across the study region. This analysis identifies those time-dependent inter-regional linkages that are most informative about the leading-order North Atlantic climate variability according to a recent NAO reconstruction for the last millenium [3]. Based on these linkages, we extend the existing reconstruction to obtain qualitative information on multidecadal to centennial scale North Atlantic climate variability over the last two millenia. In general, we find a tendency towards a dominating positive NAO phase interrupted by pronounced and extended intervals of negative NAO. Relatively rapid transitions between both types of behaviour are present during distinct periods including the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and for the Dark Ages Little Ice Age. [1] K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, S.F.M. Breitenbach, J. Kurths: Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data. Climate Dynamics 41, 3-19, 2013 [2] J.L. Oster, N.P. Kelley: Tracking regional and global teleconnections recorded by western North American speleothem records. Quaternary Science Reviews 149, 18-33, 2016 [3] P. Ortega, F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C.C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millenium. Nature 523, 71-74, 2015

Creative use of pilot points to address site and regional scale heterogeneity in a variable-density model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dausman, Alyssa M.; Doherty, John; Langevin, Christian D.

2010-01-01

Pilot points for parameter estimation were creatively used to address heterogeneity at both the well field and regional scales in a variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model designed to test multiple hypotheses for upward migration of fresh effluent injected into a highly transmissive saline carbonate aquifer. Two sets of pilot points were used within in multiple model layers, with one set of inner pilot points (totaling 158) having high spatial density to represent hydraulic conductivity at the site, while a second set of outer points (totaling 36) of lower spatial density was used to represent hydraulic conductivity further from the site. Use of a lower spatial density outside the site allowed (1) the total number of pilot points to be reduced while maintaining flexibility to accommodate heterogeneity at different scales, and (2) development of a model with greater areal extent in order to simulate proper boundary conditions that have a limited effect on the area of interest. The parameters associated with the inner pilot points were log transformed hydraulic conductivity multipliers of the conductivity field obtained by interpolation from outer pilot points. The use of this dual inner-outer scale parameterization (with inner parameters constituting multipliers for outer parameters) allowed smooth transition of hydraulic conductivity from the site scale, where greater spatial variability of hydraulic properties exists, to the regional scale where less spatial variability was necessary for model calibration. While the model is highly parameterized to accommodate potential aquifer heterogeneity, the total number of pilot points is kept at a minimum to enable reasonable calibration run times.

Sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Randel, William J.; Kim, Joowan

2017-04-01

We investigate sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using daily gridded fields of GPS radio occultation measurements. The unprecedented vertical resolution (from about 100 m in the troposphere to about 1.5 km in the stratosphere) and high accuracy and precision (0.7 K to 1 K between 8 km and 25 km) make these data ideal for characterizing temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths. Long-term behavior of sub-seasonal temperature variability is investigated using the entire RO record from January 2002 to December 2014 (13 years of data). Transient sub-seasonal waves including eastward-propagating Kelvin waves (isolated with space-time spectral analysis) dominate large-scale zonal temperature variability in the tropical tropopause region and in the lower stratosphere. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Enhanced wave activity can be found during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, sub-seasonal waves are highly transient in time. Several peaks of Kelvin-wave activity coincide with short-term fluctuations in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Also, there are no obvious relationships with zonal winds or stability fields near the tropical tropopause. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions along the waves' trajectories are needed to better understand sub-seasonal temperature variability near the tropopause. For more details, see Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.: Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793-806, doi:10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/793/2017/acp-17-793-2017.html

A discussion of the links between solar variability and high-storm-surge events in Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriopedro, David; GarcíA-Herrera, Ricardo; Lionello, Piero; Pino, Cosimo

2010-07-01

This study explores the long-term frequency variability of high-surge events (HSEs) in the North Adriatic, the so-called acqua alta, which, particularly during autumn, cause flooding of the historical city center of Venice. The period 1948-2008, when hourly observations of sea level are available, is considered. The frequency of HSEs is correlated with the 11 year solar cycle, solar maxima being associated with a significant increase in the October-November-December HSE frequency. The seasonal geopotential height pattern at 1000 hPa (storm surge pattern; SSP) associated with the increased frequency of HSEs is identified for the whole time period and found to be similar to the positive phase of the main variability mode of the regional atmospheric circulation (empirical orthogonal function 1; EOF1). However, further analysis indicates that solar activity modulates the spatial patterns of the atmospheric circulation (EOF) and the favorable conditions for HSE occurrence (SSP). Under solar maxima, the occurrence of HSEs is enhanced by the main mode of regional atmospheric variability, namely, a large-scale wave train pattern that is symptomatic of storm track paths over northern Europe. Solar minima reveal a substantially different and less robust SSP, consisting of a meridionally oriented dipole with a preferred southward path of storm track activity, which is not associated with any dominant mode of atmospheric variability during low-solar periods. It is concluded that solar activity plays an indirect role in the frequency of HSEs by modulating the spatial patterns of the main modes of atmospheric regional variability, the favorable patterns for HSE occurrence, and their mutual relationships, so that constructive interaction between them is enhanced during solar maxima and inhibited in solar minima.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Added-values of high spatiotemporal remote sensing data in crop yield estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, F.; Anderson, M. C.

2017-12-01

Timely and accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is critical for food market and administrative planning. Remote sensing derived parameters have been used for estimating crop yield by using either empirical or crop growth models. The uses of remote sensing vegetation index (VI) in crop yield modeling have been typically evaluated at regional and country scales using coarse spatial resolution (a few hundred to kilo-meters) data or assessed over a small region at field level using moderate resolution spatial resolution data (10-100m). Both data sources have shown great potential in capturing spatial and temporal variability in crop yield. However, the added value of data with both high spatial and temporal resolution data has not been evaluated due to the lack of such data source with routine, global coverage. In recent years, more moderate resolution data have become freely available and data fusion approaches that combine data acquired from different spatial and temporal resolutions have been developed. These make the monitoring crop condition and estimating crop yield at field scale become possible. Here we investigate the added value of the high spatial and temporal VI for describing variability of crop yield. The explanatory ability of crop yield based on high spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data was evaluated in a rain-fed agricultural area in the U.S. Corn Belt. Results show that the fused Landsat-MODIS (high spatial and temporal) VI explains yield variability better than single data source (Landsat or MODIS alone), with EVI2 performing slightly better than NDVI. The maximum VI describes yield variability better than cumulative VI. Even though VI is effective in explaining yield variability within season, the inter-annual variability is more complex and need additional information (e.g. weather, water use and management). Our findings augment the importance of high spatiotemporal remote sensing data and supports new moderate resolution satellite missions for agricultural applications.

A model for the flux-r.m.s. correlation in blazar variability or the minijets-in-a-jet statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biteau, J.; Giebels, B.

2012-12-01

Very high energy gamma-ray variability of blazar emission remains of puzzling origin. Fast flux variations down to the minute time scale, as observed with H.E.S.S. during flares of the blazar PKS 2155-304, suggests that variability originates from the jet, where Doppler boosting can be invoked to relax causal constraints on the size of the emission region. The observation of log-normality in the flux distributions should rule out additive processes, such as those resulting from uncorrelated multiple-zone emission models, and favour an origin of the variability from multiplicative processes not unlike those observed in a broad class of accreting systems. We show, using a simple kinematic model, that Doppler boosting of randomly oriented emitting regions generates flux distributions following a Pareto law, that the linear flux-r.m.s. relation found for a single zone holds for a large number of emitting regions, and that the skewed distribution of the total flux is close to a log-normal, despite arising from an additive process.

Exploring high-affinity binding properties of octamer peptides by principal component analysis of tetramer peptides.

PubMed

Kume, Akiko; Kawai, Shun; Kato, Ryuji; Iwata, Shinmei; Shimizu, Kazunori; Honda, Hiroyuki

2017-02-01

To investigate the binding properties of a peptide sequence, we conducted principal component analysis (PCA) of the physicochemical features of a tetramer peptide library comprised of 512 peptides, and the variables were reduced to two principal components. We selected IL-2 and IgG as model proteins and the binding affinity to these proteins was assayed using the 512 peptides mentioned above. PCA of binding affinity data showed that 16 and 18 variables were suitable for localizing IL-2 and IgG high-affinity binding peptides, respectively, into a restricted region of the PCA plot. We then investigated whether the binding affinity of octamer peptide libraries could be predicted using the identified region in the tetramer PCA. The results show that octamer high-affinity binding peptides were also concentrated in the tetramer high-affinity binding region of both IL-2 and IgG. The average fluorescence intensity of high-affinity binding peptides was 3.3- and 2.1-fold higher than that of low-affinity binding peptides for IL-2 and IgG, respectively. We conclude that PCA may be used to identify octamer peptides with high- or low-affinity binding properties from data from a tetramer peptide library. Copyright © 2016 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping CO2 emission in highly urbanized region using standardized microbial respiration approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasenev, V. I.; Stoorvogel, J. J.; Ananyeva, N. D.

2012-12-01

Urbanization is a major recent land-use change pathway. Land conversion to urban has a tremendous and still unclear effect on soil cover and functions. Urban soil can act as a carbon source, although its potential for CO2 emission is also very high. The main challenge in analysis and mapping soil organic carbon (SOC) in urban environment is its high spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics. The urban environment provides a number of specific features and processes that influence soil formation and functioning and results in a unique spatial variability of carbon stocks and fluxes at short distance. Soil sealing, functional zoning, settlement age and size are the predominant factors, distinguishing heterogeneity of urban soil carbon. The combination of these factors creates a great amount of contrast clusters with abrupt borders, which is very difficult to consider in regional assessment and mapping of SOC stocks and soil CO2 emission. Most of the existing approaches to measure CO2 emission in field conditions (eddy-covariance, soil chambers) are very sensitive to soil moisture and temperature conditions. They require long-term sampling set during the season in order to obtain relevant results. This makes them inapplicable for the analysis of CO2 emission spatial variability at the regional scale. Soil respiration (SR) measurement in standardized lab conditions enables to overcome this difficulty. SR is predominant outgoing carbon flux, including autotrophic respiration of plant roots and heterotrophic respiration of soil microorganisms. Microbiota is responsible for 50-80% of total soil carbon outflow. Microbial respiration (MR) approach provides an integral CO2 emission results, characterizing microbe CO2 production in optimal conditions and thus independent from initial difference in soil temperature and moisture. The current study aimed to combine digital soil mapping (DSM) techniques with standardized microbial respiration approach in order to analyse and map CO2 emission and its spatial variability in highly urbanized Moscow region. Moscow region with its variability of bioclimatic conditions and high urbanization level (10 % from the total area) was chosen as an interesting case study. Random soil sampling in different soil zones (4) and land-use types (3 non-urban and 3 urban) was organized in Moscow region in 2010-2011 (n=242). Both topsoil (0-10 cm) and subsoil (10-150 cm) were included. MR for each point was analysed using standardized microbial (basal) respiration approach, including the following stages: 1) air dried soil samples were moisturised up to 55% water content and preincubated (7 days, 22° C) in a plastic bag with air exchange; 2) soil MR (in μg CO2-C g-1) was measured as the rate of CO2 production (22° C, 24 h) after incubating 2g soil with 0.2 μl distilled water; 3) the MR results were used to estimate CO2 emission (kg C m-2 yr-1). Point MR and CO2 emission results obtained were extrapolated for the Moscow region area using regression model. As a result, two separate CO2 maps for topsoil and subsoil were created. High spatial variability was demonstrated especially for the urban areas. Thus standardized MR approach combined with DSM techniques provided a unique opportunity for spatial analysis of soil carbon temporal dynamics at the regional scale.

High resolution telescope and spectrograph observations of solar fine structure in the 1600 A region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, J. W.; Brueckner, G. E.; Bartoe, J.-D. F.

1983-01-01

High spatial resolution spectroheliograms of the 1600 A region obtained during the HRTS rocket flight of 1978 February 13 are presented. The morphology, fine structure, and temporal behavior of emission bright points (BPs) in active and quiet regions are illustrated. In quiet regions, network elements persist as morphological units, although individual BPs may vary in intensity while usually lasting the flight duration. In cell centers, the BPs are highly variable on a 1 minute time scale. BPs in plages remain more constant in brightness over the observing sequence. BPs cover less than 4 percent of the quiet surface. The lifetime and degree of packing of BPs vary with the local strength of the magnetic field.

New Insights Into an Old Arrhythmia: High-Resolution Mapping Demonstrates Conduction and Substrate Variability in Right Atrial Macro-Re-Entrant Tachycardia.

PubMed

Pathik, Bhupesh; Lee, Geoffrey; Sacher, Frédéric; Jaïs, Pierre; Massoullié, Grégoire; Derval, Nicolas; Bates, Matthew G; Lipton, Jonathan; Joseph, Stephen; Morton, Joseph; Sparks, Paul; Kistler, Peter; Kalman, Jonathan M

2017-09-01

Using high-resolution 3-dimensional (3D) mapping, the aim of this study was to further characterize right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardias and answer unresolved questions in the understanding of this arrhythmia. Despite advances in understanding of the mechanisms of right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardias, many questions lack definitive answers. The advent of high-resolution 3D mapping provides an opportunity to gain further insights into the nature of these common circuits. A total of 25 patients with right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardia were studied. High-resolution 3D mapping (Rhythmia mapping system, Boston Scientific, Natick, Massachusetts) was performed. Regional voltage and conduction velocity were determined. Maps were analyzed to characterize wave front propagation patterns in all atrial regions. The relationship between substrate and conduction was evaluated. A total of 42 right atrial macro-re-entrant circuits were observed. The most common location of the posterior line of block was the posteromedial right atrium (73%). This line of block continued superiorly into the superior vena cava, taking an oblique course to finish on the anterior superior vena cava aspect in 73%. Conduction delay at the crista terminalis was less common (23%). Conduction slowing or block was seen at the limbus of the fossa ovalis (73%) and Eustachian ridge (77%). Highly variable and localized areas of slow conduction were also observed in the inferior septum (45%), superior septum (27%), anterosuperior right atrium (23%), and lateral right atrium (23%). Localized conduction slowing was seen in the cavotricuspid isthmus in 50% of patients, but there was no generalized conduction slowing in this isthmus. The voltage in regions of slow conduction was significantly lower compared with areas of normal conduction velocity (p < 0.001). Conduction channels were observed in 55% of patients. High-resolution 3D mapping has provided new insights into the nature of right atrial macro-re-entrant tachycardias. Variable regions of abnormal atrial substrate were associated with conduction slowing and block. Individual variation in propagation patterns was observed in association with this variable substrate. (Mapping of Atrial Arrhythmias Using High Spatial Resolution Mapping Catheters and the Rhythmia Mapping System; ACTRN12615000544572). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assimilation of Satellite Data in Regional Air Quality Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnider, Richard T.; Norris, William B.; Casey, Daniel; Pleim, Jonathan E.; Roselle, Shawn J.; Lapenta, William M.

1997-01-01

In terms of important uncertainty in regional-scale air-pollution models, probably no other aspect ranks any higher than the current ability to specify clouds and soil moisture on the regional scale. Because clouds in models are highly parameterized, the ability of models to predict the correct spatial and radiative characteristics is highly suspect and subject to large error. The poor representation of cloud fields from point measurements at National Weather Services stations and the almost total absence of surface moisture availability observations has made assimilation of these variables difficult to impossible. Yet, the correct inclusion of clouds and surface moisture are of first-order importance in regional-scale photochemistry.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

Anti-Staphylococcus aureus single-chain variable region fragments provide protection against mastitis in mice.

PubMed

Wang, Man; Zhang, Yan; Zhu, Jianguo

2016-03-01

Staphylococcus aureus is a leading causative agent of bovine mastitis, which can result in significant economic losses to the dairy industry. However, available vaccines against bovine mastitis do not confer adequate protection, although passive immunization with antibodies may be useful to prevent disease. Hence, we constructed a bovine single-chain variable region fragment (scFv) phage display library using cDNAs from peripheral blood lymphocytes of cows with S. aureus-induced mastitis. After four rounds of selection, eight scFvs that bound S. aureus antigens with high affinity were obtained. The framework regions of the variable domains (VH and VL) of the eight scFvs were highly conserved, and the complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) displayed significant diversity, especially CDR3 of the VH domain. All eight scFvs inhibited S. aureus growth in culture medium. Lactating mice were challenged by injecting S. aureus into the fourth mammary gland. Histopathological analysis showed that treatment with these scFvs prior to bacterial challenge maintained the structure of the mammary acini, decreased infiltration of polymorphonuclear neutrophils, increased levels of interferon-gamma and interleukin-4, and reduced tumor necrosis factor-alpha levels in mammary tissues, as compared with mice treatment with physiological saline (P < 0.05). These novel bovine scFvs may be suitable candidates for therapeutic agents for the prevention of S. aureus-induced bovine mastitis.

Guiding Biogeochemical Campaigns with High Resolution Altimetry: Waiting for the SWOT Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

d'Ovidio, Francesco; Zhou, Meng; Park, Young Hyang; Nencioli, Francesco; Resplandy, Laure; Doglioli, Andrea; Petrenko, Anne; Blain, Stephane; Queguiner, Bernard

2013-09-01

Biogeochemical processes in the ocean are strongly affected by the horizontal mesoscale ( 10-100 km) and submesoscale (1-10 km) circulation. Eddies and filaments can create strong dishomogeneity, either amplifying small-scale diffusion processes (mixing) or creating tracer reservoirs. This variability has a direct effect on the biogeochemical budgets - controlling for instances tracer fluxes across climatological fronts, or part of the vertical exchanges. This variability also provides a challenge to in situ studies, because sites few tens of kms or few weeks apart may be representative of very different situations. Here we discuss how altimetry observation can be exploited in order to track in near- real-time transport barriers and mixing regions and guide a biogeochemical adaptative sampling strategy. As a case study, we focus on the recent KEOPS2 campaign (Kerguelen region, October-November 2012) which employed Lagrangian diagnostics of a specifically designed high resolution, regional altimetric product produced by CLS (with support from CNES) analyzed with several Lagrangian diagnostics. Such approach anticipates possible uses of incoming high resolution altimetry data for biogeochemical studies.

The rDNA ITS region in the lessepsian marine angiosperm Halophila stipulacea (Forssk.) Aschers. (Hydrocharitaceae): intragenomic variability and putative pseudogenic sequences.

PubMed

Ruggiero, Maria Valeria; Procaccini, Gabriele

2004-01-01

Halophila stipulacea is a dioecious marine angiosperm, widely distributed along the western coasts of the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. This species is thought to be a Lessepsian immigrant that entered the Mediterranean Sea from the Red Sea after the opening of the Suez Canal (1869). Previous studies have revealed both high phenotypic and genetic variability in Halophila stipulacea populations from the western Mediterranean basin. In order to test the hypothesis of a Lessepsian introduction, we compare genetic polymorphism between putative native (Red Sea) and introduced (Mediterranean) populations through rDNA ITS region (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2) sequence analysis. A high degree of intraindividual variability of ITS sequences was found. Most of the intragenomic polymorphism was due to pseudogenic sequences, present in almost all individuals. Features of ITS functional sequences and pseudogenes are described. Possible causes for the lack of homogenization of ITS paralogues within individuals are discussed.

Variability among the Most Rapidly Evolving Plastid Genomic Regions is Lineage-Specific: Implications of Pairwise Genome Comparisons in Pyrus (Rosaceae) and Other Angiosperms for Marker Choice

PubMed Central

Ter-Voskanyan, Hasmik; Allgaier, Martin; Borsch, Thomas

2014-01-01

Plastid genomes exhibit different levels of variability in their sequences, depending on the respective kinds of genomic regions. Genes are usually more conserved while noncoding introns and spacers evolve at a faster pace. While a set of about thirty maximum variable noncoding genomic regions has been suggested to provide universally promising phylogenetic markers throughout angiosperms, applications often require several regions to be sequenced for many individuals. Our project aims to illuminate evolutionary relationships and species-limits in the genus Pyrus (Rosaceae)—a typical case with very low genetic distances between taxa. In this study, we have sequenced the plastid genome of Pyrus spinosa and aligned it to the already available P. pyrifolia sequence. The overall p-distance of the two Pyrus genomes was 0.00145. The intergenic spacers between ndhC–trnV, trnR–atpA, ndhF–rpl32, psbM–trnD, and trnQ–rps16 were the most variable regions, also comprising the highest total numbers of substitutions, indels and inversions (potentially informative characters). Our comparative analysis of further plastid genome pairs with similar low p-distances from Oenothera (representing another rosid), Olea (asterids) and Cymbidium (monocots) showed in each case a different ranking of genomic regions in terms of variability and potentially informative characters. Only two intergenic spacers (ndhF–rpl32 and trnK–rps16) were consistently found among the 30 top-ranked regions. We have mapped the occurrence of substitutions and microstructural mutations in the four genome pairs. High AT content in specific sequence elements seems to foster frequent mutations. We conclude that the variability among the fastest evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific and thus cannot be precisely predicted across angiosperms. The often lineage-specific occurrence of stem-loop elements in the sequences of introns and spacers also governs lineage-specific mutations. Sequencing whole plastid genomes to find markers for evolutionary analyses is therefore particularly useful when overall genetic distances are low. PMID:25405773

EUV brightness variations in the quiet Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brković, A.; Rüedi, I.; Solanki, S. K.; Fludra, A.; Harrison, R. A.; Huber, M. C. E.; Stenflo, J. O.; Stucki, K.

2000-01-01

The Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer (CDS) onboard the SOHO satellite has been used to obtain movies of quiet Sun regions at disc centre. These movies were used to study brightness variations of solar features at three different temperatures sampled simultaneously in the chromospheric He I 584.3 Ä (2 * 104 K), the transition region O V 629.7 Ä (2.5 * 105 K) and coronal Mg IX 368.1 Ä (106 K) lines. In all parts of the quiet Sun, from darkest intranetwork to brightest network, we find significant variability in the He I and O V line, while the variability in the Mg IX line is more marginal. The relative variability, defined by rms of intensity normalised to the local intensity, is independent of brightness and strongest in the transition region line. Thus the relative variability is the same in the network and the intranetwork. More than half of the points on the solar surface show a relative variability, determined over a period of 4 hours, greater than 15.5% for the O V line, but only 5% of the points exhibit a variability above 25%. Most of the variability appears to take place on time-scales between 5 and 80 minutes for the He I and O V lines. Clear signs of ``high variability'' events are found. For these events the variability as a function of time seen in the different lines shows a good correlation. The correlation is higher for more variable events. These events coincide with the (time averaged) brightest points on the solar surface, i.e. they occur in the network. The spatial positions of the most variable points are identical in all the lines.

Carbon: Chlorophyll Ratios and Net Primary Productivity of Subarctic Pacific Surface Waters Derived From Autonomous Shipboard Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, William J.; Westberry, Toby K.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Zeng, Chen; Izett, Robert W.; Tortell, Philippe D.

2018-02-01

We present optically derived estimates of phytoplankton carbon (Cphyto) and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) across a wide range of productivity and hydrographic regimes in the Subarctic Pacific Ocean. Our high-frequency measurements capture changes in Cphyto and Chl across regional gradients in macronutrient and micronutrient limitations and submesoscale hydrographic frontal zones. Throughout the majority of our survey region, carbon to chlorophyll ratios (Cphyto:Chl) ranged between 50 and 100. Lower values (10-20) were constrained to the highly productive coastal upwelling system along Vancouver Island, whereas higher estimated values (>200) were found directly off the southern British Columbia continental shelf. Further offshore, Cphyto:Chl was less variable, ranging from 50 to 80 in high nutrient low Chl waters in June and from 80 to 120 in the Gulf of Alaska in July. Much of the variability in Cphyto:Chl throughout the study region could be explained by mixed-layer light levels (i.e., photoacclimation), with additional variability attributed to nutrient-controlled changes in phytoplankton growth rates in some regions. Elevated Cphyto:Chl ratios resulting from apparent nutrient stress were found in areas of low macronutrient concentrations. In contrast, iron-limited waters exhibited Cphyto:Chl ratios lower than predicted from the photoacclimation model. Applying the carbon-based production model, we derived Cphyto and Chl-based estimates of net primary productivity, which showed good coherence with independent 14C uptake measurements. Our results highlight the utility of ship-board optical data to examine phytoplankton physiological ecology and productivity in surface marine waters.

Contamination risk and drinking water protection for a large-scale managed aquifer recharge site in a semi-arid karst region, Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xanke, Julian; Liesch, Tanja; Goeppert, Nadine; Klinger, Jochen; Gassen, Niklas; Goldscheider, Nico

2017-09-01

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions are particularly threatened by surface contamination, especially during winter seasons when extremely variable rainfall of high intensities prevails. An additional challenge is posed when managed recharge of storm water is applied, since karst aquifers display a high spatial variability of hydraulic properties. In these cases, adapted protection concepts are required to address the interaction of surface water and groundwater. In this study a combined protection approach for the surface catchment of the managed aquifer recharge site at the Wala reservoir in Jordan and the downstream Hidan wellfield, which are both subject to frequent bacteriological contamination, is developed. The variability of groundwater quality was evaluated by correlating contamination events to rainfall, and to recharge from the reservoir. Both trigger increased wadi flow downstream of the reservoir by surface runoff generation and groundwater seepage, respectively. A tracer test verified the major pathway of the surface flow into the underground by infiltrating from pools along Wadi Wala. An intrinsic karst vulnerability and risk map was adapted to the regional characteristics and developed to account for the catchment separation by the Wala Dam and the interaction of surface water and groundwater. Implementation of the proposed protection zones for the wellfield and the reservoir is highly recommended, since the results suggest an extreme contamination risk resulting from livestock farming, arable agriculture and human occupation along the wadi. The applied methods can be transferred to other managed aquifer recharge sites in similar karstic environments of semi-arid regions.

Analysis of the long-term surface wind variability over complex terrain using a high spatial resolution WRF simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Pedro A.; González-Rouco, J. Fidel; Montávez, Juan P.; García-Bustamante, E.; Navarro, J.; Dudhia, J.

2013-04-01

This work uses a WRF numerical simulation from 1960 to 2005 performed at a high horizontal resolution (2 km) to analyze the surface wind variability over a complex terrain region located in northern Iberia. A shorter slice of this simulation has been used in a previous study to demonstrate the ability of the WRF model in reproducing the observed wind variability during the period 1992-2005. Learning from that validation exercise, the extended simulation is herein used to inspect the wind behavior where and when observations are not available and to determine the main synoptic mechanisms responsible for the surface wind variability. A principal component analysis was applied to the daily mean wind. Two principal modes of variation accumulate a large percentage of the wind variability (83.7%). The first mode reflects the channeling of the flow between the large mountain systems in northern Iberia modulated by the smaller topographic features of the region. The second mode further contributes to stress the differentiated wind behavior over the mountains and valleys. Both modes show significant contributions at the higher frequencies during the whole analyzed period, with different contributions at lower frequencies during the different decades. A strong relationship was found between these two modes and the zonal and meridional large scale pressure gradients over the area. This relationship is described in the context of the influence of standard circulation modes relevant in the European region like the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012).

PubMed

Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Savopoulos, Christos; Zannis, Prodromos; Apostolopoulou, Martha; Fountoukidis, Ilias; Kakaletsis, Nikolaos; Kanellos, Ilias; Dimellis, Dimos; Hyphantis, Thomas; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Pompili, Maurizio; Hatzitolios, Apostolos I

2016-03-15

Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12. The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%) Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A brightening of the symbiotic variable SY Muscae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michalitsianos, A. G.; Feibelman, W. A.; Kafatos, M.; Wallerstein, G.

1982-01-01

The symbiotic variable SY Muscae has been observed with IUE in September 1980 and June 1981 and in the photographic region in May 1981. The entire ultraviolet spectrum brightened between September and June by about a factor of 5. The spectrum shows high excitation including emission from N v and high electron density, about 10-billion per cu cm as determined from various line ratios in the ultraviolet. The optical spectrum is dominated by permitted lines; even forbidden O III is very weak again indicating high density in the ionized region. The increase in ultraviolet continuum and line emission may be due to enhanced mass transfer from the cool star whose period is 623d and whose maximum was predicted to occur very close to the time of the June 1981 observations. Alternatively the hot star and much of the emitting gas could have been in eclipse in September 1980.

The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation

PubMed Central

Thompson, David W. J.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2017-01-01

Abstract We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large‐scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large‐scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific‐South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high‐latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled‐climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone. PMID:29398735

Ionospheric responses during equinox and solstice periods over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karatay, Secil; Cinar, Ali; Arikan, Feza

2017-11-01

Ionospheric electron density is the determining variable for investigation of the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere. Total Electron Content (TEC) is the integral of the electron density along a ray path that indicates the total variability through the ionosphere. Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings can be utilized to estimate the TEC, thus GPS proves itself as a useful tool in monitoring the total variability of electron distribution within the ionosphere. This study focuses on the analysis of the variations of ionosphere over Turkey that can be grouped into anomalies during equinox and solstice periods using TEC estimates obtained by a regional GPS network. It is observed that noon time depletions in TEC distributions predominantly occur in winter for minimum Sun Spots Numbers (SSN) in the central regions of Turkey which also exhibit high variability due to midlatitude winter anomaly. TEC values and ionospheric variations at solstice periods demonstrate significant enhancements compared to those at equinox periods.

Decadal Variability of Temperature and Salinity in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishonov, A. V.; Seidov, D.; Reagan, J. R.; Boyer, T.; Parsons, A. R.

2017-12-01

There are only a few regions in the World Ocean where the density of observations collected over the past 60 years is sufficient for reliable data mapping with spatial resolutions finer than one-degree. The Northwest Atlantic basin is one such regions where a spatial resolution of gridded temperature and salinity fields, comparable to those generated by eddy-resolving numerical models of ocean circulation, has recently becomes available. Using the new high-resolution Northwest Atlantic Regional Climatology, built on quarter-degree and one-tenth-degree resolution fields, we analyzed decadal variability and trends of temperature and salinity over 60 years in the Northwest Atlantic, and two 30-year ocean climates of 1955-1984 and 1985-2012 to evaluate the oceanic climate shift in this region. The 30-year climate shift is demonstrated using an innovative 3-D visualization of temperature and salinity. Spatial and temporal variability of heat accumulation found in previous research of the entire North Atlantic Ocean persists in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. Salinity changes between two 30-year climates were also computed and are discussed.

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

Broadband short term X-ray variability of the quasar PDS 456

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzeu, G. A.; Reeves, J. N.; Nardini, E.; Braito, V.; Costa, M. T.; Tombesi, F.; Gofford, J.

2016-05-01

We present a detailed analysis of a recent 500 ks net exposure Suzaku observation, carried out in 2013, of the nearby (z=0.184) luminous (L_bol˜1047 erg s-1) quasar PDS 456 in which the X-ray flux was unusually low. The short term X-ray spectral variability has been interpreted in terms of variable absorption and/or intrinsic continuum changes. In the former scenario, the spectral variability is due to variable covering factors of two regions of partially covering absorbers. We find that these absorbers are characterised by an outflow velocity comparable to that of the highly ionised wind, i.e. ˜ 0.25 c, at the 99.9% (3.26σ) confidence level. This suggests that the partially absorbing clouds may be the denser clumpy part of the inhomogeneous wind. Following an obscuration event we obtained a direct estimate of the size of the X-ray emitting region, to be not larger than 20 R_g in PDS 456.

Comparing interpolation techniques for annual temperature mapping across Xinjiang region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren-ping, Zhang; Jing, Guo; Tian-gang, Liang; Qi-sheng, Feng; Aimaiti, Yusupujiang

2016-11-01

Interpolating climatic variables such as temperature is challenging due to the highly variable nature of meteorological processes and the difficulty in establishing a representative network of stations. In this paper, based on the monthly temperature data which obtained from the 154 official meteorological stations in the Xinjiang region and surrounding areas, we compared five spatial interpolation techniques: Inverse distance weighting (IDW), Ordinary kriging, Cokriging, thin-plate smoothing splines (ANUSPLIN) and Empirical Bayesian kriging(EBK). Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Results indicated that, the ANUSPLIN performed best than the other four interpolation methods.

30,000 years of hydroclimatic variability in the coastal southwest United States: regional synthesis and forcings analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, M. E.

2015-12-01

The coastal southwest United States is characterized by a winter dominated hydroclimate. Far from dependable, this region's supply of winter precipitation is highly variable and often characterized by hydrologic opposites - droughts and floods. Predicting future precipitation and hydrologic dynamics requires a paleoperspective. Here, we present an up-to-date synthesis of hydroclimatic variability over the past 30,000 years. A variety of terrestrial-based studies are examined and compared to understand patterns of regional hydroclimatic change. This comparison is extended into the San Joaquin Basin of California where future climate change will impact the region's agricultural stability and economy. Particularly interesting is the apparent role that Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play in modulating the region's hydroclimate over a variety of timescales. Are past periods of above average Pacific SSTs analogs for future global warming? If yes, the region might expect an increase in winter precipitation as SSTs rise in response to global warming. However, how this potential precipitation increase is manifest is unknown. For example, will the intensity of precipitation events increase and thus present increased flood hazards and diminished freshwater capture? Finally, we present evidence for changes in the source of winter precipitation over time as well as ecological responses to past hydrologic change.

Variability of High-Resolution Sea Surface Heights on a Broad, Shallow Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crout, R. L.; Rice, A. E.

2017-12-01

Recent satellite altimeter technologies and processing methodologies are allowing investigation of the dynamics of the continental shelf as never before. The region seaward of 20 km from the coast is a region where winds, tides, currents, river discharge, and bathymetry interact. All of these are important parameters to understand when applying coastal altimetry to coastal sea level monitoring. Processing of 8 years (July 2008 to July 2016) of Jason-2 altimeter 20 Hz data from the L2 AVISO-PISTACH experimental products yields nearly 300 crossings of the broad continental shelf to the southeast of Delaware Bay from Cape May, NJ. Removal of a mean surface yields individual crossings that, plotted together, form an envelope that shows high water level variability near the coast. Water level changes near the coast begin at a hinge point that occurs approximately 50 km from shore in less than 30 meters of water. Comparison of individual Jason-2 passes with regional weather patterns, cold front passages, local winds, tides, surface currents, river discharge, and regional oceanography provides information regarding the forcing factors for these regional water levels. The water levels farther than 20 km from shore show similar patterns to the low pass filtered tide data at Cape May, NJ and respond primarily to regional forcing.

Maturation of Shark Single-Domain (IgNAR) Antibodies: Evidence for Induced-Fit Binding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stanfield, R.L.; Dooley, H.; Verdino, P.

2007-07-13

Sharks express an unusual heavy-chain isotype called IgNAR, whose variable regions bind antigen as independent soluble domains. To further probe affinity maturation of the IgNAR response, we structurally characterized the germline and somatically matured versions of a type II variable (V) region, both in the presence and absence of its antigen, hen egg-white lysozyme. Despite a disulfide bond linking complementarity determining regions (CDRs) 1 and 3, both germline and somatically matured V regions displayed significant structural changes in these CDRs upon complex formation with antigen. Somatic mutations in the IgNAR V region serve to increase the number of contacts withmore » antigen, as reflected by a tenfold increase in affinity, and one of these mutations appears to stabilize the CDR3 region. In addition, a residue in the HV4 loop plays an important role in antibody-antigen interaction, consistent with the high rate of somatic mutations in this non-CDR loop.« less

A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, A.M.; Hoos, A.B.; Terziotti, S.

2011-01-01

We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land-to-water transport variables are significant (p<0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long-term log-transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land-to-water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land-to-water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land-to-water variables - soil organic matter and soil pH - are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state-developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil-parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Assimilating bio-optical glider data during a phytoplankton bloom in the southern Ross Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Daniel E.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Hemmings, John C. P.; Smith, Walker O., Jr.

2018-01-01

The Ross Sea is a region characterized by high primary productivity in comparison to other Antarctic coastal regions, and its productivity is marked by considerable variability both spatially (1-50 km) and temporally (days to weeks). This variability presents a challenge for inferring phytoplankton dynamics from observations that are limited in time or space, which is often the case due to logistical limitations of sampling. To better understand the spatiotemporal variability in Ross Sea phytoplankton dynamics and to determine how restricted sampling may skew dynamical interpretations, high-resolution bio-optical glider measurements were assimilated into a one-dimensional biogeochemical model adapted for the Ross Sea. The assimilation of data from the entire glider track using the micro-genetic and local search algorithms in the Marine Model Optimization Testbed improves the model-data fit by ˜ 50 %, generating rates of integrated primary production of 104 g C m-2 yr-1 and export at 200 m of 27 g C m-2 yr-1. Assimilating glider data from three different latitudinal bands and three different longitudinal bands results in minimal changes to the simulations, improves the model-data fit with respect to unassimilated data by ˜ 35 %, and confirms that analyzing these glider observations as a time series via a one-dimensional model is reasonable on these scales. Whereas assimilating the full glider data set produces well-constrained simulations, assimilating subsampled glider data at a frequency consistent with cruise-based sampling results in a wide range of primary production and export estimates. These estimates depend strongly on the timing of the assimilated observations, due to the presence of high mesoscale variability in this region. Assimilating surface glider data subsampled at a frequency consistent with available satellite-derived data results in 40 % lower carbon export, primarily resulting from optimized rates generating more slowly sinking diatoms. This analysis highlights the need for the strategic consideration of the impacts of data frequency, duration, and coverage when combining observations with biogeochemical modeling in regions with strong mesoscale variability.

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions. These results are largely reflective of cross-correlation existing in hydrologic datasets, and highlight the limited predictive power of many traditionally used variables for regional regression. A parsimonious approach including fewer variables chosen based on their connection to streamflow may be more efficient than a data mining approach including many different variables. Future regional regression studies may benefit from having a hydrologic rationale for including different variables and attempting to create new variables related to streamflow.

Genetic diversity and phylogeography of highly zoonotic Echinococcus granulosus genotype G1 in the Americas (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico) based on 8279bp of mtDNA.

PubMed

Laurimäe, Teivi; Kinkar, Liina; Andresiuk, Vanessa; Haag, Karen Luisa; Ponce-Gordo, Francisco; Acosta-Jamett, Gerardo; Garate, Teresa; Gonzàlez, Luis Miguel; Saarma, Urmas

2016-11-01

Echinococcus granulosus is a taeniid cestode and the etiological agent of an infectious zoonotic disease known as cystic echinococcosis (CE) or hydatid disease. CE is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world, including the Americas, where it is highly endemic in many regions. Echinococcus granulosus displays high intraspecific genetic variability and is divided into multiple genotypes (G1-G8, G10) with differences in their biology and etiology. Of these, genotype G1 is responsible for the majority of human and livestock infections and has the broadest host spectrum. However, despite the high significance to the public and livestock health, the data on genetic variability and regional genetic differences of genotype G1 in America are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic variability and phylogeography of G1 in several countries in America by sequencing a large portion of the mitochondrial genome. We analysed 8279bp of mtDNA for 52 E. granulosus G1 samples from sheep, cattle and pigs collected in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, covering majority of countries in the Americas where G1 has been reported. The phylogenetic network revealed 29 haplotypes and a high haplotype diversity (Hd=0.903). The absence of phylogeographic segregation between different regions in America suggests the importance of animal transportation in shaping the genetic structure of E. granulosus G1. In addition, our study revealed many highly divergent haplotypes, indicating a long and complex evolutionary history of E. granulosus G1 in the Americas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 12; Comparison of Satellite Global Rainfall Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Alfred T. C.; Chiu, Long S.

1997-01-01

Seventeen months of rainfall data (August 1987-December 1988) from nine satellite rainfall algorithms (Adler, Chang, Kummerow, Prabhakara, Huffman, Spencer, Susskind, and Wu) were analyzed to examine the uncertainty of satellite-derived rainfall estimates. The variability among algorithms, measured as the standard deviation computed from the ensemble of algorithms, shows regions of high algorithm variability tend to coincide with regions of high rain rates. Histograms of pattern correlation (PC) between algorithms suggest a bimodal distribution, with separation at a PC-value of about 0.85. Applying this threshold as a criteria for similarity, our analyses show that algorithms using the same sensor or satellite input tend to be similar, suggesting the dominance of sampling errors in these satellite estimates.

Climate Change and Conservation Planning in California: The San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branciforte, R.; Weiss, S. B.; Schaefer, N.

2008-12-01

Climate change threatens California's vast and unique biodiversity. The Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals is a comprehensive regional biodiversity assessment of the 9 counties surrounding San Francisco Bay, and is designing conservation land networks that will serve to protect, manage, and restore that biodiversity. Conservation goals for vegetation, rare plants, mammals, birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates are set, and those goals are met using the optimization algorithm MARXAN. Climate change issues are being considered in the assessment and network design in several ways. The high spatial variability at mesoclimatic and topoclimatic scales in California creates high local biodiversity, and provides some degree of local resiliency to macroclimatic change. Mesoclimatic variability from 800 m scale PRISM climatic norms is used to assess "mesoclimate spaces" in distinct mountain ranges, so that high mesoclimatic variability, especially local extremes that likely support range limits of species and potential climatic refugia, can be captured in the network. Quantitative measures of network resiliency to climate change include the spatial range of key temperature and precipitation variables within planning units. Topoclimatic variability provides a finer-grained spatial patterning. Downscaling to the topoclimatic scale (10-50 m scale) includes modeling solar radiation across DEMs for predicting maximum temperature differentials, and topographic position indices for modeling minimum temperature differentials. PRISM data are also used to differentiate grasslands into distinct warm and cool types. The overall conservation strategy includes local and regional connectivity so that range shifts can be accommodated.

A spatially resolved estimate of High Mountain Asia glacier mass balances from 2000 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brun, Fanny; Berthier, Etienne; Wagnon, Patrick; Kääb, Andreas; Treichler, Désirée

2017-09-01

High Mountain Asia hosts the largest glacier concentration outside the polar regions. These glaciers are important contributors to streamflow in one of the most populated areas of the world. Past studies have used methods that can provide only regionally averaged glacier mass balances to assess the glacier contribution to rivers and sea level rise. Here we compute the mass balance for about 92% of the glacierized area of High Mountain Asia using time series of digital elevation models derived from satellite stereo-imagery. We calculate a total mass change of -16.3 +/- 3.5 Gt yr-1 (-0.18 +/- 0.04 m w.e. yr-1) between 2000 and 2016, which is less negative than most previous estimates. Region-wide mass balances vary from -4.0 +/- 1.5 Gt yr-1 (-0.62 +/- 0.23 m w.e. yr-1) in Nyainqentanglha to +1.4 +/- 0.8 Gt yr-1 (+0.14 +/- 0.08 m w.e. yr-1) in Kunlun, with large intra-regional variability of individual glacier mass balances (standard deviation within a region ~0.20 m w.e. yr-1). Specifically, our results shed light on the Nyainqentanglha and Pamir glacier mass changes, for which contradictory estimates exist in the literature. They provide crucial information for the calibration of the models used for projecting glacier response to climatic change, as these models do not capture the pattern, magnitude and intra-regional variability of glacier changes at present.

Epstein-Barr Virus Latent Membrane Protein 1 Genetic Variability in Peripheral Blood B Cells and Oropharyngeal Fluids

PubMed Central

Renzette, Nicholas; Somasundaran, Mohan; Brewster, Frank; Coderre, James; Weiss, Eric R.; McManus, Margaret; Greenough, Thomas; Tabak, Barbara; Garber, Manuel; Kowalik, Timothy F.

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT We report the diversity of latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) gene founder sequences and the level of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genome variability over time and across anatomic compartments by using virus genomes amplified directly from oropharyngeal wash specimens and peripheral blood B cells during acute infection and convalescence. The intrahost nucleotide variability of the founder virus was 0.02% across the region sequences, and diversity increased significantly over time in the oropharyngeal compartment (P = 0.004). The LMP1 region showing the greatest level of variability in both compartments, and over time, was concentrated within the functional carboxyl-terminal activating regions 2 and 3 (CTAR2 and CTAR3). Interestingly, a deletion in a proline-rich repeat region (amino acids 274 to 289) of EBV commonly reported in EBV sequenced from cancer specimens was not observed in acute infectious mononucleosis (AIM) patients. Taken together, these data highlight the diversity in circulating EBV genomes and its potential importance in disease pathogenesis and vaccine design. IMPORTANCE This study is among the first to leverage an improved high-throughput deep-sequencing methodology to investigate directly from patient samples the degree of diversity in Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) populations and the extent to which viral genome diversity develops over time in the infected host. Significant variability of circulating EBV latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) gene sequences was observed between cellular and oral wash samples, and this variability increased over time in oral wash samples. The significance of EBV genetic diversity in transmission and disease pathogenesis are discussed. PMID:24429365

Cross-country transferability of multi-variable damage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenaar, Dennis; Lüdtke, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Bouwer, Laurens

2017-04-01

Flood damage assessment is often done with simple damage curves based only on flood water depth. Additionally, damage models are often transferred in space and time, e.g. from region to region or from one flood event to another. Validation has shown that depth-damage curve estimates are associated with high uncertainties, particularly when applied in regions outside the area where the data for curve development was collected. Recently, progress has been made with multi-variable damage models created with data-mining techniques, i.e. Bayesian Networks and random forest. However, it is still unknown to what extent and under which conditions model transfers are possible and reliable. Model validations in different countries will provide valuable insights into the transferability of multi-variable damage models. In this study we compare multi-variable models developed on basis of flood damage datasets from Germany as well as from The Netherlands. Data from several German floods was collected using computer aided telephone interviews. Data from the 1993 Meuse flood in the Netherlands is available, based on compensations paid by the government. The Bayesian network and random forest based models are applied and validated in both countries on basis of the individual datasets. A major challenge was the harmonization of the variables between both datasets due to factors like differences in variable definitions, and regional and temporal differences in flood hazard and exposure characteristics. Results of model validations and comparisons in both countries are discussed, particularly in respect to encountered challenges and possible solutions for an improvement of model transferability.

Epstein-Barr virus latent membrane protein 1 genetic variability in peripheral blood B cells and oropharyngeal fluids.

PubMed

Renzette, Nicholas; Somasundaran, Mohan; Brewster, Frank; Coderre, James; Weiss, Eric R; McManus, Margaret; Greenough, Thomas; Tabak, Barbara; Garber, Manuel; Kowalik, Timothy F; Luzuriaga, Katherine

2014-04-01

We report the diversity of latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) gene founder sequences and the level of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genome variability over time and across anatomic compartments by using virus genomes amplified directly from oropharyngeal wash specimens and peripheral blood B cells during acute infection and convalescence. The intrahost nucleotide variability of the founder virus was 0.02% across the region sequences, and diversity increased significantly over time in the oropharyngeal compartment (P = 0.004). The LMP1 region showing the greatest level of variability in both compartments, and over time, was concentrated within the functional carboxyl-terminal activating regions 2 and 3 (CTAR2 and CTAR3). Interestingly, a deletion in a proline-rich repeat region (amino acids 274 to 289) of EBV commonly reported in EBV sequenced from cancer specimens was not observed in acute infectious mononucleosis (AIM) patients. Taken together, these data highlight the diversity in circulating EBV genomes and its potential importance in disease pathogenesis and vaccine design. This study is among the first to leverage an improved high-throughput deep-sequencing methodology to investigate directly from patient samples the degree of diversity in Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) populations and the extent to which viral genome diversity develops over time in the infected host. Significant variability of circulating EBV latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1) gene sequences was observed between cellular and oral wash samples, and this variability increased over time in oral wash samples. The significance of EBV genetic diversity in transmission and disease pathogenesis are discussed.

Atlas based brain volumetry: How to distinguish regional volume changes due to biological or physiological effects from inherent noise of the methodology.

PubMed

Opfer, Roland; Suppa, Per; Kepp, Timo; Spies, Lothar; Schippling, Sven; Huppertz, Hans-Jürgen

2016-05-01

Fully-automated regional brain volumetry based on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays an important role in quantitative neuroimaging. In clinical trials as well as in clinical routine multiple MRIs of individual patients at different time points need to be assessed longitudinally. Measures of inter- and intrascanner variability are crucial to understand the intrinsic variability of the method and to distinguish volume changes due to biological or physiological effects from inherent noise of the methodology. To measure regional brain volumes an atlas based volumetry (ABV) approach was deployed using a highly elastic registration framework and an anatomical atlas in a well-defined template space. We assessed inter- and intrascanner variability of the method in 51 cognitively normal subjects and 27 Alzheimer dementia (AD) patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative by studying volumetric results of repeated scans for 17 compartments and brain regions. Median percentage volume differences of scan-rescans from the same scanner ranged from 0.24% (whole brain parenchyma in healthy subjects) to 1.73% (occipital lobe white matter in AD), with generally higher differences in AD patients as compared to normal subjects (e.g., 1.01% vs. 0.78% for the hippocampus). Minimum percentage volume differences detectable with an error probability of 5% were in the one-digit percentage range for almost all structures investigated, with most of them being below 5%. Intrascanner variability was independent of magnetic field strength. The median interscanner variability was up to ten times higher than the intrascanner variability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Power politics: National energy strategies of the nuclear newly independent states of Armenia, Lithuania and Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabonis-Chafee, Theresa Marie

The successor states of Armenia, Lithuania and Ukraine arrived at independence facing extraordinary challenges in their energy sectors. Each state was a net importer, heavily dependent on cheap energy supplies, mostly from Russia. Each state also inherited a nuclear power complex over which it had not previously exercised full control. In the time period 1991--1996, each state attempted to impose coherence on the energy sector, selecting a new course for the pieces it had inherited from a much larger, highly integrated energy structure. Each state attempted to craft national energy policies in the midst of severe supply shocks and price shocks. Each state developed institutions to govern its nuclear power sector. The states' challenges were made even greater by the fact that they had few political or economic structures necessary for energy management, and sought to create those structures at the same time. This dissertation is a systematic, non-quantitative examination of how each state's energy policies developed during the 1991--1996 time period. The theoretical premise of the analysis (drawn from Statist realism) is that systemic variables---regional climate and energy vulnerability---provide the best explanations for the resulting energy policy decisions. The dependent variable is defined as creation and reform of energy institutions. The independent variables include domestic climate, regional climate, energy vulnerability and transnational assistance. All three states adopted rhetoric and legislation declaring energy a strategic sector. The evidence suggests that two of the states, Armenia and Lithuania, which faced tense regional climates and high levels of energy vulnerability, succeeded in actually treating energy strategically, approaching energy as a matter of national security or "high politics." The third state, Ukraine, failed to do so. The evidence presented suggests that the systemic variables (regional climate and energy vulnerability) provided a more favorable environment for Ukraine, one in which the state attempted reform of the sector, but not as a concerted national security issue.

Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio

2017-07-01

This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two drier subperiods, which mostly show air humidity divergence. While the drier periods are particularly characterized by the strengthening of northerly wind over the center of South America, including the Pantanal region, the wetter period is characterized by its weakening. The circulation pattern at 850 hPa levels during the drier subperiods shows anticyclonic anomalies centered over east central South America. Also, the drier subperiods (1st and 3rd) are characterized by negative stream function anomalies over southeastern South America and adjacent South Atlantic, and the wetter subperiod is characterized by positive stream function anomalies. In the three subperiods, one can see mean atmospheric patterns associated with Rossby wave propagation coming from the South Pacific basin—similar to the Pacific South America pattern, but with reverse signals between the wetter and the drier periods. This result suggests a possible relationship between climatic patterns over southeastern South America regions and the Pacific conditions in a decadal scale.

Individual and contextual factors related to binge drinking among adolescents in Spain: a multilevel approach.

PubMed

Teixidó-Compañó, Ester; Sordo, Luis; Bosque-Prous, Marina; Puigcorbé, Susanna; Barrio, Gregorio; Brugal, M Teresa; Belza, María José J; Espelt, Albert

2018-01-15

The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of binge drinking by regions in Spain and assess the effect of individual and contextual factors related to this drinking pattern in adolescents. A cross-sectional study was performed with data from the 2014 Spanish School Survey on Drug Use (ESTUDES) in students aged 14-18 years (N = 34,259). The outcome was binge drinking in adolescents during the last 30 days. Individual independent variables were socioeconomic variables and variables related to access to alcohol and its availability. Contextual variables consisted of adult alcohol consumption, public policies on alcohol, and socioeconomic factors. Multilevel Poisson regression models with robust variance were estimated, obtaining prevalence ratios (PR) and their 95% confidence intervals.  The results showed that the prevalence of youth binge drinking by region of residence was similar for both sexes (r = 0.72). At the individual level, binge drinking was mainly associated with the perception of easy access to alcohol (PR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.23-1.55), consumption in open areas [(PR: 3.82; 95% CI: 3.44-4.24) < once a month and (PR: 6.57; 95% CI: 5.85-7.37) ≥ once a month], at least one parent allowing alcohol consumption (PR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.37-1.47), and receiving >30 euros weekly (PR :1.51; 95% CI: 1.37-1.67). Contextual variables were not associated with youth binge drinking when individual variables were considered. In conclusion, youth binge drinking was associated with individual variables related to high alcohol accessibility and availability, regardless of contextual variables. These variables explained the variability in binge drinking among Spanish regions.

Observations of V420 Aur (HD 34921) needed to support spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2016-10-01

Marcella Wijngaarden and Kelly Gourdji (graduate students at the University of Amsterdam/Anton Pannekoek Institute for Astronomy) have requested AAVSO observers' assistance in providing optical photometry of V420 Aur in support of their high-resolution spectroscopy with the Mercator telescope + Hermes spectrograph in La Palma 2016 October 7 through 17. They write: "[V420 Aur (HD 34921) is] the optical Be star that is part of a peculiar High Mass X-ray Binary...[that exhibits highly] complex and variable spectra...it is difficult to construct a physical model of this HMXB system, though based on these observations, the system is thought to contain a B[e] star with a dense plasma region, an accretion disk around a neutron star, a shell and circumstellar regions of cold dust. It has been over a decade since the last spectra were taken, and, given the highly variable nature of this star, we expect new observations to yield new information that will contribute to a better understanding of this system." Observations in BVRI (preferred over other bands) are requested beginning immediately and continuing through October 24. In all cases, timeseries in a few bands (i.e. BVRI) are preferred over single/a few observations in the other bands as it is the variability on relatively short timescales that is most important. "The target is bright so exposures should be long enough to reach good signal to noise in order to see the small variability amplitude but without saturating the target/comparison stars. We will study the variability on several timescales, so observations starting from a few per night to high cadence timeseries are useful." Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (https://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. See full Alert Notice for more details.

Intraseasonal variability of organized convective systems in the Central Andes: Relationship to Regional Dynamical Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, K. I.; Slayback, D. A.; Nicholls, S.; Yager, K.

2013-12-01

The Andes extend from the west coast of Colombia (10N) to the southern tip of Chile (53S). In southern Peru and Bolivia, the Central Andes is split into separate eastern and western cordilleras, with a high plateau (≥ 3000 m), the Altiplano, between them. Because 90% of the Earth's tropical mountain glaciers are located in the Central Andes, our study focuses on this region, defining its zonal extent as 7S-21S and the meridional extent as the terrain 1000 m and greater. Although intense convection occurs during the wet season in the Altiplano, it is not included in the lists of regions with frequent or the most intense convection. The scarcity of in-situ observations with sufficient density and temporal resolution to resolve individual storms or even mesoscale-organized cloud systems and documented biases in microwave-based rainfall products in poorly gauged mountainous regions have impeded the development of an extensive literature on convection and convective systems in this region. With the tropical glaciers receding at unprecedented rates, leaving seasonal precipitation as an increasingly important input to the water balance in alpine valley ecosystems and streams, understanding the nature and characteristics of the seasonal precipitation becomes increasingly important for the rural economies in this region. Previous work in analyzing precipitation in the Central Andes has emphasized interannual variability with respect to ENSO, this is the first study to focus on shorter scale variability with respect to organized convection. The present study took advantage of the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database compiled from 14 years of TRMM observations (1998-2012), supplemented by field observations of rainfall and streamflow, historical gauge data, and long-term WRF-simulations, to analyze the intraseasonal variability of precipitating systems and their relationship regional dynamical features such as the Bolivian High. Through time series and wavelet analysis, we found an important 8-10 day cycle related to but lagging convective surges in the Amazon basin and enhanced upper-level cyclonic flow around the Bolivian High. The majority of the organized convection in the region tended to be weak (< 5 mm/hr rain rates) and shallow (< 12 km). The timing of response (i.e., formation and distribution of organized convection) due to changes in moisture transport around the Bolivian High was similar in the wetter eastern and drier western cordilleras of the Central Andes. The response to upper level moisture transport was modulated by local soil moisture and elevation slope and aspect, with higher elevation, eastern facing peaks having a stronger response than western-facing and lower elevation areas. Streamflow data support the hypothesis that the majority of the light rainfall infiltrates the shallow sub-surface, rather than contributing to surface channel runoff, helping to sustain the high altitude peatlands in the Andean valleys.

Analysis of the historical precipitation in the South East Iberian Peninsula at different spatio-temporal scale. Study of the meteorological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a fundamental climate variable that has a pronounced spatial and temporal variability on a global scale, as well as at regional and sub-regional scales. Due to its orographic complexity and its latitude the Iberian Peninsula (IP), located to the west of the Mediterranean Basin between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a complex climate. Over the peninsula there are strong north-south and east-west gradients, as a consequence of the different low-frequency atmospheric patterns, and he overlap of these over the year will be determinants in the variability of climatic variables. In the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula dominates a dry Mediterranean climate, the precipitation is characterized as being an intermittent and discontinuous variable. In this research information coming from the Spain02 v4 database was used to study the South East (SE) IP for the 1971-2010 period with a spatial resolution of 0.11 x 0.11. We analysed precipitation at different time scale (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual,…) to study the spatial distribution and temporal tendencies. The high spatial, intra-annual and inter-annual climatic variability observed makes it necessary to propose a climatic regionalization. In addition, for the identified areas and subareas of homogeneous climate we have analysed the evolution of the meteorological drought for the same period at different time scales. The standardized precipitation index has been used at 12, 24 and 48 month temporal scale. The climatic complexity of the area determines a high variability in the drought characteristics, duration, intensity and frequency in the different climatic areas. This research has been supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 project for the data provided for this study.

A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the Southeast United States: assessment of precipitation variability in dynamically downscaled reanalyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stefanova, Lydia; Misra, Vasubandhu; Chan, Steven; Griffin, Melissa; O'Brien, James J.; Smith, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

We present an analysis of the seasonal, subseasonal, and diurnal variability of rainfall from COAPS Land- Atmosphere Regional Reanalysis for the Southeast at 10-km resolution (CLARReS10). Most of our assessment focuses on the representation of summertime subseasonal and diurnal variability.Summer precipitation in the Southeast United States is a particularly challenging modeling problem because of the variety of regional-scale phenomena, such as sea breeze, thunderstorms and squall lines, which are not adequately resolved in coarse atmospheric reanalyses but contribute significantly to the hydrological budget over the region. We find that the dynamically downscaled reanalyses are in good agreement with station and gridded observations in terms of both the relative seasonal distribution and the diurnal structure of precipitation, although total precipitation amounts tend to be systematically overestimated. The diurnal cycle of summer precipitation in the downscaled reanalyses is in very good agreement with station observations and a clear improvement both over their "parent" reanalyses and over newer-generation reanalyses. The seasonal cycle of precipitation is particularly well simulated in the Florida; this we attribute to the ability of the regional model to provide a more accurate representation of the spatial and temporal structure of finer-scale phenomena such as fronts and sea breezes. Over the northern portion of the domain summer precipitation in the downscaled reanalyses remains, as in the "parent" reanalyses, overestimated. Given the degree of success that dynamical downscaling of reanalyses demonstrates in the simulation of the characteristics of regional precipitation, its favorable comparison to conventional newer-generation reanalyses and its cost-effectiveness, we conclude that for the Southeast United states such downscaling is a viable proxy for high-resolution conventional reanalysis.

Greenhouse gas aerosols and pollutants over Siberia: the YAK-AEROSIB French Russian Joint International Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Jean-Daniel; Belan, Boris D.; Ancellet, Gérard; Nédélec, Philippe; Arshinov, Mikhail Yu.; Pruvost, Arnaud; Berchet, Antoine; Arzoumanian, Emmanuel; Pison, Isabelle; Ciais, Philippe; Law, Kathy

2014-05-01

Despite the unique scientific value of better knowing atmospheric composition over Siberia, regional observations of the tropospheric composition over this region are still lacking. Large local anthropogenic emissions, strong ecosystem gas exchange across the vast forest expanse, and processes feeding back to global climate such as wetlands CH4 emissions, seabed hydrates destabilization and degrading permafrost make this region particularly crucial to investigate. We aim at addressing this need in the YAK-AEROSIB program by collecting high-precision in-situ measurements of the vertical distribution of CO2, CH4, CO, O3, black carbon and ultrafine particles distribution in the Siberian troposphere, as well as other parameters including aerosol lidar profiles, on a pan-Siberian aircraft transect. Campaigns are performed almost annually since 2006 until now on this regular route, while special campaigns are occasionnally arranged to sample the troposphere elsewere (e.g. Russian Arctic coast). We show the background tropospheric composition obtained from these surveys, the variability and the impact of large-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions from Europe and Asia, as well as the impact of biomass burning plumes both from local wildfires (2012) and from remote sources elsewhere in Asia. Long range transport of anthropogenic emissions is shown to have a discernible impact on O3 distribution, although its lower-tropospheric variability is largely driven by surface deposition. Regional sources and sinks drive the lower troposphere CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Recent efforts aim at better understanding the respective role of CH4 emission processes (including methanogenesis in wetlands and emissions by wildfires) in driving its large scale atmospheric variability over the region. Generally, the YAK AEROSIB provide unique observations over Siberia, documenting both direct impact of regional sources and aged air masses experiencing long range transport toward the high Arctic.

Sequence intrinsic somatic mutation mechanisms contribute to affinity maturation of VRC01-class HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies

PubMed Central

Hwang, Joyce K.; Wang, Chong; Du, Zhou; Meyers, Robin M.; Kepler, Thomas B.; Neuberg, Donna; Kwong, Peter D.; Mascola, John R.; Joyce, M. Gordon; Bonsignori, Mattia; Haynes, Barton F.; Yeap, Leng-Siew; Alt, Frederick W.

2017-01-01

Variable regions of Ig chains provide the antigen recognition portion of B-cell receptors and derivative antibodies. Ig heavy-chain variable region exons are assembled developmentally from V, D, J gene segments. Each variable region contains three antigen-contacting complementarity-determining regions (CDRs), with CDR1 and CDR2 encoded by the V segment and CDR3 encoded by the V(D)J junction region. Antigen-stimulated germinal center (GC) B cells undergo somatic hypermutation (SHM) of V(D)J exons followed by selection for SHMs that increase antigen-binding affinity. Some HIV-1–infected human subjects develop broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs), such as the potent VRC01-class bnAbs, that neutralize diverse HIV-1 strains. Mature VRC01-class bnAbs, including VRC-PG04, accumulate very high SHM levels, a property that hinders development of vaccine strategies to elicit them. Because many VRC01-class bnAb SHMs are not required for broad neutralization, high overall SHM may be required to achieve certain functional SHMs. To elucidate such requirements, we used a V(D)J passenger allele system to assay, in mouse GC B cells, sequence-intrinsic SHM-targeting rates of nucleotides across substrates representing maturation stages of human VRC-PG04. We identify rate-limiting SHM positions for VRC-PG04 maturation, as well as SHM hotspots and intrinsically frequent deletions associated with SHM. We find that mature VRC-PG04 has low SHM capability due to hotspot saturation but also demonstrate that generation of new SHM hotspots and saturation of existing hotspot regions (e.g., CDR3) does not majorly influence intrinsic SHM in unmutated portions of VRC-PG04 progenitor sequences. We discuss implications of our findings for bnAb affinity maturation mechanisms. PMID:28747530

Estrellas variables en campos de cúmulos abiertos galácticos detectadas en el relevamiento VVV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palma, T.; Dékany, I.; Clariá, J. J.; Minniti, D.; Alonso-García, J. A.; Ramírez Alegría, S.; Bonatto, C.

2016-08-01

The present project constitutes a massive search for variable stars in the field of open clusters projected on highly reddened regions of the galactic disk and bulge. This search is being performed using -, - and -band observations of the near-infrared variability Survey Vista variables in the Via Lactea. We present the first results obtained in four open clusters projected on the Galactic bulge. The new variables discovered in the current work, 182 in total, are classified on the basis of their light curves and their locations in the corresponding color-magnitude diagrams. Among the newly discovered variable stars, Cepheids, RR Lyrae, Scuti, eclipsing binaries and other types have been found.

Snow hydrology in Mediterranean mountain regions: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fayad, Abbas; Gascoin, Simon; Faour, Ghaleb; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio; Drapeau, Laurent; Page, Michel Le; Escadafal, Richard

2017-08-01

Water resources in Mediterranean regions are under increasing pressure due to climate change, economic development, and population growth. Many Mediterranean rivers have their headwaters in mountainous regions where hydrological processes are driven by snowpack dynamics and the specific variability of the Mediterranean climate. A good knowledge of the snow processes in the Mediterranean mountains is therefore a key element of water management strategies in such regions. The objective of this paper is to review the literature on snow hydrology in Mediterranean mountains to identify the existing knowledge, key research questions, and promising technologies. We collected 620 peer-reviewed papers, published between 1913 and 2016, that deal with the Mediterranean-like mountain regions in the western United States, the central Chilean Andes, and the Mediterranean basin. A large amount of studies in the western United States form a strong scientific basis for other Mediterranean mountain regions. We found that: (1) the persistence of snow cover is highly variable in space and time but mainly controlled by elevation and precipitation; (2) the snowmelt is driven by radiative fluxes, but the contribution of heat fluxes is stronger at the end of the snow season and during heat waves and rain-on-snow events; (3) the snow densification rates are higher in these regions when compared to other climate regions; and (4) the snow sublimation is an important component of snow ablation, especially in high-elevation regions. Among the pressing issues is the lack of continuous ground observation in high-elevation regions. However, a few years of snow depth (HS) and snow water equivalent (SWE) data can provide realistic information on snowpack variability. A better spatial characterization of snow cover can be achieved by combining ground observations with remotely sensed snow data. SWE reconstruction using satellite snow cover area and a melt model provides reasonable information that is suitable for hydrological applications. Further advances in our understanding of the snow processes in Mediterranean snow-dominated basins will be achieved by finer and more accurate representation of the climate forcing. While the theory on the snowpack energy and mass balance is now well established, the connections between the snow cover and the water resources involve complex interactions with the sub-surface processes, which demand future investigation.

Variable interstellar absorption lines in young stellar aggregates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krełowski, J.; Strobel, A.; Vješnica, S.; Melekh, D.; Bondar, A.

2018-06-01

The variability of interstellar atomic lines, sporadically reported in the astronomical literature, has been confirmed both in the case of the nearby hot star δ Ori and the very young and violent star-forming region η Carinae, using high-resolution echelle spectra. The presented variability concerns the intensities and profiles of Na I, K I and Ca II. The time-scale of the above-mentioned variations clearly suggests very local phenomena as their cause. It is important to say that not all interstellar lines vary in unison.

Observations of CO above Venus cloud top near 4.53 μm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcq, E.; Encrenaz, T.; Widemann, T.; Bertaux, J. L.

2013-09-01

Venus' cloud top region exhibits a higher level of variability both in space and time than previously thought. The interplay between photochemistry, dynamics and cloud microphysics requires more observational constraints in order to be fully grasped. Recent observations of sulfur dioxide (SO2) variability [2, 8, 7, 9] have evidenced both short-term, longterm and latitudinal variability whose origin remains mysterious (volcanogenic emissions? dynamic variability?). A better knowledge of the variability of other minor species would be highly welcome in this context. Carbon monoxide (CO), whose pattern of sinks and sources is opposite to SO2, is a prime candidate.

High school science enrollment of black students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goggins, Ellen O.; Lindbeck, Joy S.

How can the high school science enrollment of black students be increased? School and home counseling and classroom procedures could benefit from variables identified as predictors of science enrollment. The problem in this study was to identify a set of variables which characterize science course enrollment by black secondary students. The population consisted of a subsample of 3963 black high school seniors from The High School and Beyond 1980 Base-Year Survey. Using multiple linear regression, backward regression, and correlation analyses, the US Census regions and grades mostly As and Bs in English were found to be significant predictors of the number of science courses scheduled by black seniors.

Past variability of the North American Monsoon: ultrahigh resolution records from the lower Gulf of California for the last 6 Ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herguera, J. C.; Nava Fernandez, C.; Bernal, G.; Paull, C. K.

2015-12-01

The North American Monsoon regime results from an interplay between the ocean, atmosphere and continental topography though there is an ongoing debate as to the relative importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the NE tropical Pacific warm water lens region, solar radiation variability, land snow cover and soil moisture over the Western North America mountain ranges and the strength and spatial patterns of the dominant winds. The links between these factors and the monsoonal variability appear to be of variable importance during the short instrumental record, and hampers any prediction on the future evolution of this climatic regime in a warming climate. The terrigenous component in very-high sedimentation rate sediments on the margins of the Gulf of California links monsoonal precipitation patterns on land with the varying importance of the lithogenic component in these margin sediments. Here we use the elemental composition of Si and Fe in these margin sediments, as a proxy for the lithogenic component in a collection of box and kasten cores from the eastern and western margins of the lower Gulf of California. This region shows a strong tropical influence during the summer, as part of the northernmost extension of the eastern tropical Pacific warm water lens region. A period when the southwestern winds bring moist air masses inland enhancing the monsoonal rains on the eastern reaches of Sierra Madre Occidental. High resolution XRF results allow us to explore the relationships between different elemental ratios in these sediments and the available instrumental record and several paleo-reconstructions to evaluate the possible links between external forcings and internal feedback effects, to help to understand the controls on the evolution of the monsoonal regime in this region.

Topside ionosphere of Mars: Variability, transient layers, and the role of crustal magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopika, P. G.; Venkateswara Rao, N.

2018-04-01

The topside ionosphere of Mars is known to show variability and transient topside layers. In this study, we analyzed the electron density profiles measured by the radio occultation technique aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft to study the topside ionosphere of Mars. The electron density profiles that we used in the present study span between 1998 and 2005. All the measurements are done from the northern high latitudes, except 220 profiles which were measured in the southern hemisphere, where strong crustal magnetic fields are present. We binned the observations into six measurement periods: 1998, 1999-north, 1999-south, 2000-2001, 2002-2003, and 2004-2005. We found that the topside ionosphere in the southern high latitudes is more variable than that from the northern hemisphere. This feature is clearly seen with fluctuations of wavelengths less than 20 km. Some of the electron density profiles show a transient topside layer with a local maximum in electron density between 160 km and 210 km. The topside layer is more prone to occur in the southern hemispheric crustal magnetic field regions than in the other regions. In addition, the peak density of the topside layer is greater in regions of strong crustal magnetic fields than in other regions. The variability of the topside ionosphere and the peak density of the topside layer, however, do not show one-to-one correlation with the strength of the crustal magnetic fields and magnetic field inclination. The results of the present study are discussed in the light of current understanding on the topside ionosphere, transient topside layers, and the role of crustal magnetic fields on plasma motions.

VoxelStats: A MATLAB Package for Multi-Modal Voxel-Wise Brain Image Analysis.

PubMed

Mathotaarachchi, Sulantha; Wang, Seqian; Shin, Monica; Pascoal, Tharick A; Benedet, Andrea L; Kang, Min Su; Beaudry, Thomas; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gauthier, Serge; Labbe, Aurélie; Rosa-Neto, Pedro

2016-01-01

In healthy individuals, behavioral outcomes are highly associated with the variability on brain regional structure or neurochemical phenotypes. Similarly, in the context of neurodegenerative conditions, neuroimaging reveals that cognitive decline is linked to the magnitude of atrophy, neurochemical declines, or concentrations of abnormal protein aggregates across brain regions. However, modeling the effects of multiple regional abnormalities as determinants of cognitive decline at the voxel level remains largely unexplored by multimodal imaging research, given the high computational cost of estimating regression models for every single voxel from various imaging modalities. VoxelStats is a voxel-wise computational framework to overcome these computational limitations and to perform statistical operations on multiple scalar variables and imaging modalities at the voxel level. VoxelStats package has been developed in Matlab(®) and supports imaging formats such as Nifti-1, ANALYZE, and MINC v2. Prebuilt functions in VoxelStats enable the user to perform voxel-wise general and generalized linear models and mixed effect models with multiple volumetric covariates. Importantly, VoxelStats can recognize scalar values or image volumes as response variables and can accommodate volumetric statistical covariates as well as their interaction effects with other variables. Furthermore, this package includes built-in functionality to perform voxel-wise receiver operating characteristic analysis and paired and unpaired group contrast analysis. Validation of VoxelStats was conducted by comparing the linear regression functionality with existing toolboxes such as glim_image and RMINC. The validation results were identical to existing methods and the additional functionality was demonstrated by generating feature case assessments (t-statistics, odds ratio, and true positive rate maps). In summary, VoxelStats expands the current methods for multimodal imaging analysis by allowing the estimation of advanced regional association metrics at the voxel level.

The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T. R.; Cole, J. E.; St. George, S.

2012-11-01

We assess the magnitude of decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations that will be used to understand, and plan for, climate change as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 5th Assessment Report. Model performance on D2M timescales is evaluated using metrics designed to characterize the relative and absolute magnitude of variability at these frequencies. In observational data, we find that between 10% and 35% of the total variance occurs on D2M timescales. Regions characterized by the high end of this range include Africa, Australia, western North America, and the Amazon region of South America. In these areas D2M fluctuations are especially prominent and linked to prolonged drought. D2M fluctuations account for considerably less of the total variance (between 5% and 15%) in the CMIP5 archive of historical (1850-2005) simulations. The discrepancy between observation and model based estimates of D2M prominence reflects two features of the CMIP5 archive. First, interannual components of variability are generally too energetic. Second, decadal components are too weak in several key regions. Our findings imply that projections of the future lack sufficient decadal variability, presenting a limited view of prolonged drought and pluvial risk.

FLOWS AND MOTIONS IN MOSS IN THE CORE OF A FLARING ACTIVE REGION: EVIDENCE FOR STEADY HEATING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brooks, David H.; Warren, Harry P., E-mail: dhbrooks@ssd5.nrl.navy.mi

2009-09-20

We present new measurements of the time variability of intensity, Doppler, and nonthermal velocities in moss in an active region core observed by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on Hinode in 2007 June. The measurements are derived from spectral profiles of the Fe XII 195 A line. Using the 2'' slit, we repeatedly scanned 150'' by 150'' in a few minutes. This is the first time it has been possible to make such velocity measurements in the moss, and the data presented are the highest cadence spatially resolved maps of moss Doppler and nonthermal velocities ever obtained in the corona. Themore » observed region produced numerous C- and M-class flares with several occurring in the core close to the moss. The magnetic field was therefore clearly changing in the active region core, so we ought to be able to detect dynamic signatures in the moss if they exist. Our measurements of moss intensities agree with previous studies in that a less than 15% variability is seen over a period of 16 hr. Our new measurements of Doppler and nonthermal velocities reveal no strong flows or motions in the moss, nor any significant variability in these quantities. The results confirm that moss at the bases of high temperature coronal loops is heated quasi-steadily. They also show that quasi-steady heating can contribute significantly even in the core of a flare productive active region. Such heating may be impulsive at high frequency, but if so it does not give rise to large flows or motions.« less

Simulation of regional ground-water flow in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system in the northern Midwest, United States: in Regional aquifer-system analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mandle, R.J.; Kontis, A.L.

1992-01-01

Results of variable-density simulations indicate that the rate of ground-water movement is small in areas where ground water is highly mineralized. The rates and directions are controlled by the intrinsic permeability of the rock, freshwater head gradients, and gravitational force.

Climate change impacts on northwestern and intermountain United States rangelands

Treesearch

Jeanne C. Chambers; Mike Pellant

2008-01-01

Our focus is on the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region including the Great Basin, Columbia Plateau, Colorado Plateau, and surrounding areas. The climate of this large, arid to semiarid region is defined by generally low and highly variable precipitation. Much of the yearly precipitation arrives as winter snow because most of the moisture comes as frontal storms...

Spatial and temporal distribution of ambient nitric acid and ammonia in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Alberta

Treesearch

A. Bytnerowicz; W. Fraczek; S. Schilling; D. Alexander

2010-01-01

Monthly average ambient concentrations of gaseous nitric acid (HNO3) and ammonia (NH3) were monitored at the Athabasca Oils Sands Region (AOSR), Alberta, Canada, between May 2005 and September 2008. Generally, concentrations of both pollutants were elevated and highly variable in space and time. The highest atmospheric...

Genetic variation in blue spruce: A test of populations in Nebraska

Treesearch

David F. Van Haverbeke

1984-01-01

Analyses of 43 blue spruce populations at age 12 (9 years in the field) revealed significant differences among populations for survival, height, vigor, crown diameter, frost injury, and foliage color. Use of regions increases the probability of locating better seeds sources, but high variability among individual populations within regions limits their value in...

Non-native Listeners’ Recognition of High-Variability Speech Using PRESTO

PubMed Central

Tamati, Terrin N.; Pisoni, David B.

2015-01-01

Background Natural variability in speech is a significant challenge to robust successful spoken word recognition. In everyday listening environments, listeners must quickly adapt and adjust to multiple sources of variability in both the signal and listening environments. High-variability speech may be particularly difficult to understand for non-native listeners, who have less experience with the second language (L2) phonological system and less detailed knowledge of sociolinguistic variation of the L2. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of high-variability sentences on non-native speech recognition and to explore the underlying sources of individual differences in speech recognition abilities of non-native listeners. Research Design Participants completed two sentence recognition tasks involving high-variability and low-variability sentences. They also completed a battery of behavioral tasks and self-report questionnaires designed to assess their indexical processing skills, vocabulary knowledge, and several core neurocognitive abilities. Study Sample Native speakers of Mandarin (n = 25) living in the United States recruited from the Indiana University community participated in the current study. A native comparison group consisted of scores obtained from native speakers of English (n = 21) in the Indiana University community taken from an earlier study. Data Collection and Analysis Speech recognition in high-variability listening conditions was assessed with a sentence recognition task using sentences from PRESTO (Perceptually Robust English Sentence Test Open-Set) mixed in 6-talker multitalker babble. Speech recognition in low-variability listening conditions was assessed using sentences from HINT (Hearing In Noise Test) mixed in 6-talker multitalker babble. Indexical processing skills were measured using a talker discrimination task, a gender discrimination task, and a forced-choice regional dialect categorization task. Vocabulary knowledge was assessed with the WordFam word familiarity test, and executive functioning was assessed with the BRIEF-A (Behavioral Rating Inventory of Executive Function – Adult Version) self-report questionnaire. Scores from the non-native listeners on behavioral tasks and self-report questionnaires were compared with scores obtained from native listeners tested in a previous study and were examined for individual differences. Results Non-native keyword recognition scores were significantly lower on PRESTO sentences than on HINT sentences. Non-native listeners’ keyword recognition scores were also lower than native listeners’ scores on both sentence recognition tasks. Differences in performance on the sentence recognition tasks between non-native and native listeners were larger on PRESTO than on HINT, although group differences varied by signal-to-noise ratio. The non-native and native groups also differed in the ability to categorize talkers by region of origin and in vocabulary knowledge. Individual non-native word recognition accuracy on PRESTO sentences in multitalker babble at more favorable signal-to-noise ratios was found to be related to several BRIEF-A subscales and composite scores. However, non-native performance on PRESTO was not related to regional dialect categorization, talker and gender discrimination, or vocabulary knowledge. Conclusions High-variability sentences in multitalker babble were particularly challenging for non-native listeners. Difficulty under high-variability testing conditions was related to lack of experience with the L2, especially L2 sociolinguistic information, compared with native listeners. Individual differences among the non-native listeners were related to weaknesses in core neurocognitive abilities affecting behavioral control in everyday life. PMID:25405842

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Spatial heterogeneity of water quality in a highly degraded tropical freshwater ecosystem.

PubMed

Zambrano, Luis; Contreras, Victoria; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Zarco-Arista, Alba E

2009-02-01

Awareness of environmental heterogeneity in ecosystems is critical for management and conservation. We used the Xochimilco freshwater system to describe the relationship between heterogeneity and human activities. This tropical aquatic ecosystem south of Mexico City is comprised of a network of interconnected canals and lakes that are influenced by agricultural and urban activities. Environmental heterogeneity was characterized by spatially extensive surveys within four regions of Xochimilco during rainy and dry seasons over 2 years. These surveys revealed a heterogeneous system that was shallow (1.1 m, SD=0.4 ), warm (17 degrees C, SD=2.9), well oxygenated (5.0 mg l(-1), SD=3), turbid (45.7 NTU SD = 26.96), and extremely nutrient-rich (NO(3)-N=15.9 mg l(-1), SD=13.7; NH(4)-N=2.88 mg l(-1), SD=4.24; and PO(4)-P=8.3 mg l(-1), SD=2.4). Most of the variables were not significantly different between years, but did differ between seasons, suggesting a dynamic system within a span of a year but with a high resilience over longer periods of time. Maps were produced using interpolations to describe distributions of all variables. There was no correlation between individual variables and land use. Consequently, we searched for relationships using all variables together by generating a combined water quality index. Significant differences in the index were apparent among the four regions. Index values also differed within individual region and individual water bodies (e.g., within canals), indicating that Xochimilco has high local heterogeneity. Using this index on a map helped to relate water quality to human activities and provides a simple and clear tool for managers and policymakers.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Water Quality in a Highly Degraded Tropical Freshwater Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Luis; Contreras, Victoria; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Zarco-Arista, Alba E.

2009-02-01

Awareness of environmental heterogeneity in ecosystems is critical for management and conservation. We used the Xochimilco freshwater system to describe the relationship between heterogeneity and human activities. This tropical aquatic ecosystem south of Mexico City is comprised of a network of interconnected canals and lakes that are influenced by agricultural and urban activities. Environmental heterogeneity was characterized by spatially extensive surveys within four regions of Xochimilco during rainy and dry seasons over 2 years. These surveys revealed a heterogeneous system that was shallow (1.1 m, SD = 0.4 ), warm (17°C, SD = 2.9), well oxygenated (5.0 mg l-1, SD = 3), turbid (45.7 NTU SD = 26.96), and extremely nutrient-rich (NO3-N = 15.9 mg l-1, SD=13.7; NH4-N = 2.88 mg l-1, SD = 4.24; and PO4-P = 8.3 mg l-1, SD = 2.4). Most of the variables were not significantly different between years, but did differ between seasons, suggesting a dynamic system within a span of a year but with a high resilience over longer periods of time. Maps were produced using interpolations to describe distributions of all variables. There was no correlation between individual variables and land use. Consequently, we searched for relationships using all variables together by generating a combined water quality index. Significant differences in the index were apparent among the four regions. Index values also differed within individual region and individual water bodies (e.g., within canals), indicating that Xochimilco has high local heterogeneity. Using this index on a map helped to relate water quality to human activities and provides a simple and clear tool for managers and policymakers.

Biomass and the Climatic Space from historical to future scenarios of a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest - Caatinga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Coe, M. T.; Maia Andrade, E.; Walker, W.; Baccini, A.; Brando, P. M.; Farina, M.

2017-12-01

The Caatinga found in the semiarid region in northeastern Brazil is the largest continuous seasonally dry tropical forest in South America. The region has for centuries been subject to anthropogenic activities of land conversion, abandonment, and regrowth. The region also has a large spatial variability of edaphic-climatic properties. These effects together contribute to a wide variability of plant physiognomies and biomass concentration. In addition to land use change due to anthropogenic activities the region is exposed in the near and long term to dryer conditions. The main goal of this work was to validate a high spatial resolution (30 m) map of above ground biomass, understand the climatic role in the biomass spatial variability in the present, and the potential threat to vegetation for future climatic shifts. Satellite-derived biomass products are advanced tools that can address spatial changes in forest structure for an extended region. Here we combine a compilation of published field phytosociological observations across the region with a new 30-meter spatial resolution satellite biomass product. Climate data used for this analyses were based on the CRU (Climate Research Unit, UEA) for the historical time period and for the future a mean and 25-75% quantiles of the CMIP Global Climate model estimates for the RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2. The high heterogeneity in the biomass and physiognomy distribution across the Caatinga region is mostly explained by the climatic space defined by the precipitation and dryness index. The Caatinga region has historically already been exposed to shift in its climatic properties, driving all the physiognomies, to a dryer climatic space within the last decade. Future climate intensify the observed trends. This study provides a clearer understanding of the spatial distribution of Caatinga vegetation, its biomass, and relationships to climate, which are essential for strategic development planning, preservation of the biome functions, human services, and biodiversity, face future climate scenarios.

A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legave, Jean Michel; Blanke, Michael; Christen, Danilo; Giovannini, Daniela; Mathieu, Vincent; Oger, Robert

2013-03-01

In the current context of global warming, an analysis is required of spatially-extensive and long-term blooming data in fruit trees to make up for insufficient information on regional-scale blooming changes and determinisms that are key to the phenological adaptation of these species. We therefore analysed blooming dates over long periods at climate-contrasted sites in Western Europe, focusing mainly on the Golden Delicious apple that is grown worldwide. On average, blooming advances were more pronounced in northern continental (10 days) than in western oceanic (6-7 days) regions, while the shortest advance was found on the Mediterranean coastline. Temporal trends toward blooming phase shortenings were also observed in continental regions. These regional differences in temporal variability across Western Europe resulted in a decrease in spatial variability, i.e. shorter time intervals between blooming dates in contrasted regions (8-10-day decrease for full bloom between Mediterranean and continental regions). Fitted sequential models were used to reproduce phenological changes. Marked trends toward shorter simulated durations of forcing period (bud growth from dormancy release to blooming) and high positive correlations between these durations and observed blooming dates support the notion that blooming advances and shortenings are mainly due to faster satisfaction of the heating requirement. However, trends toward later dormancy releases were also noted in oceanic and Mediterranean regions. This could tend toward blooming delays and explain the shorter advances in these regions despite similar or greater warming. The regional differences in simulated chilling and forcing periods were consistent with the regional differences in temperature increases.

Molecular maser flares in the high-mass star-forming region IRAS18566+0408

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbe, Daniel M.

We report results of a long-termmonitoring study of 6cmformaldehyde (H 2CO), 6.035GHz hydroxyl (OH), and 6.7GHz methanol (CH3OH) masers in the young high-mass protostellar object IRAS18566+0408 (G37.55+0.20). This is the only high-mass star-forming region where correlated variability of three different maser species has been reported. The observations were conducted with the 305m Arecibo Radio Telescope, and together with data from the literature, we present H2CO flux density measurements from 2002 to 2014, CH3OH data from 2006 to 2013, and discuss OH observations obtained between 2008 and 2012. Our extended monitoring observations of the H2CO maser agree with the quasi-periodic flare phenomenon and exponential decrease in quiescent and flare flux densities proposed by Araya and collaborators in 2010. We also confirm the occurrence of 6.035GHz OH flares and a time delay with respect to the H2CO flares. An analysis between the variability behavior of different CH3OH maser components and the H2CO maser suggests that multiple variability mechanisms are responsible for CH3OH flux density changes.

Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

2012-04-01

Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

Hydroclimate variability in NE Brazil over the last 2K

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giselle, Utida; Ioanna, Bouloubassi; Francisco, Cruz; Enno, Schefuβ; Abdel, Sifeddine; Vincent, Klein; Johan, Etourneau; Renata, Zocatelli; André, Zular; Hai, Cheng; Laurence, Edwards R.

2016-04-01

Precipitation associated with the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) supplies more than 70% of tropical South America's annual precipitation and is fundamental in sustaining the water regime for regional socioeconomic activities. Motivated by the fact that the greatest uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation trends lies in the tropics, and particularly in South America, a number of recent proxy and modeling studies have aimed at understanding SASM spatiotemporal variability regarding its dynamics, driving mechanisms and teleconnections. Exact reconstructions of past meridional ITCZ displacements (timing, sign, amplitude), however, are currently lacking, mainly because of the paucity of suited high-resolution archives. This restricts our ability to assess regional rainfall variability at decadal to centennial timescales, especially in the hydroclimatic-sensitive semi-arid Nordeste, needed to understand the interactions between SASM and ITCZ and to evaluate the impact of Pacific-Atlantic climate interactions on the regional rainfall variability at decadal/multi-decadal scale. Here we present two new and complementary high-resolution records of past precipitation over the last 2K from the north area of Nordeste, an area ideally located to track fluctuations in the southernmost edge of ITCZ movement. We present a new δO18 record from a local speleothem and combine it, for the first time, with δD analyses of wax lipids in well-dated sediments from a nearby lake. The two independent records show a remarkable similarity and are characterized by strong decadal to multidecadal variability as well as century-scale changes. The period 250-450 yrs CE appears as the wettest phase over the last 2K, while the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by extremely dry conditions. Following the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is a relatively wetter phase. The data document fluctuations of southern meridional ITCZ movements during the last millennium that compare well with available records of fluctuations in northern ITCZ extension (Cariaco Basin). Comparisons to proxy records from tropical South America regions affected by the SASM and the South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) allow evaluating the SAMS/SACZ-ITCZ linkages. Furthermore, the data are discussed in terms of the role of the Atlantic and Pacific modes of variability in modulating regional hydroclimate.

Distributed modelling of water resources in the Lower Jordan River Basin - from present day variability to suitability for new water sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunkel, Anne; Lange, Jens

2010-05-01

The Middle East is characterized by a high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. As a result, water resources are not reliable and severe drought events are frequent, worsening the natural water scarcity. Single high magnitude events may dominate the water balance of entire seasons - a fact that is poorly represented in the assessments of available water resources that are normally based on long term averages. Therefore, a distributed hydrological model with a high temporal and spatial resolution is applied to the Lower Jordan River basin (LJRB). The focus is hereby to capture the variability of rainfall and to investigate how this signal is amplified in the hydrological cycle in this arid and semi arid environment. Rainfall variability is addressed through a volume scanning rainfall radar providing precipitation data with a resolution of 5 minutes for entire seasons that serves as input to a conceptual hydrological model. The raw radar data recorded by a C-Band system was pre-corrected by a multiple regression approach prior to regionalization to the LJRB, ground truthing with rainfall station data and conditional merging. Despite certain uncertainties, the data documents the accentuated rainfall variability in the entire LJRB. In order to include the full range of present rainfall variability, one average and two extreme seasons (wet and dry) are studied. Hydrological modelling is undertaken with a new modelling tool created by coupling two hydrological models, TRAIN and ZIN, complementing each other in respect to the addressed processes and water fluxes. The resulting modelling tool enables conceptual modelling of the processes relevant for semi-arid / arid environments with a high temporal and spatial resolution. The model is applied to the large scale LJRB (16,000 km²) in order to simulate all components of the water balance for three rainy seasons representing the present climate variability. Under given conditions of low data availability, the results give a basin wide view on the availability of surface water resources without human intervention with a high resolution in time (5 min) and space (up to 250 x 250 m²). The scarcity of water resources in many areas within the region is illustrated and detailed maps of the water balance components reveal spatial pattern of water availability characterizing the different potentials of regions or sub basins for water management options. Moreover, comparing different climate conditions provides valuable information for water management, including insights into the relation between green and blue water. For instance, runoff generation and percolation react stronger to changes in precipitation than evapotranspiration and the changes in runoff and percolation are considerably higher than the differences in rainfall between the three years. This amplification of rainfall variability by the hydrological cycle is significant for water management. Based on the results for current conditions, the impact of different scenarios and management options is analyzed, e.g. the effect of land use changes or the suitability of different regions for rainwater harvesting, one of the urgently needed new water sources.

Ammonia and Methane Dairy Emission Plumes in the San Joaquin Valley of California from Individual Feedlot to Regional Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, David J.; Sun, Kang; Pan, Da; Zondlo, Mark A.; Nowak, John B.; Liu, Zhen; Diskin, Glenn; Sachse, Glen; Beyersdorf, Andreas; Ferrare, Richard;

Ammonia and methane dairy emissions in the San Joaquin Valley of California from individual feedlot to regional scale

DOE PAGES

Miller, David J.; Sun, Kang; Tao, Lei; ...

2015-09-27

Agricultural ammonia (NH 3) emissions are highly uncertain, with high spatiotemporal variability and a lack of widespread in situ measurements. Regional NH 3 emission estimates using mass balance or emission ratio approaches are uncertain due to variable NH 3 sources and sinks as well as unknown plume correlations with other dairy source tracers. We characterize the spatial distributions of NH 3 and methane (CH 4) dairy plumes using in situ surface and airborne measurements in the Tulare dairy feedlot region of the San Joaquin Valley, California, during the NASA Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observationsmore » Relevant to Air Quality 2013 field campaign. Surface NH 3 and CH 4 mixing ratios exhibit large variability with maxima localized downwind of individual dairy feedlots. The geometric mean NH 3:CH 4 enhancement ratio derived from surface measurements is 0.15 ± 0.03 ppmv ppmv –1. Individual dairy feedlots with spatially distinct NH 3 and CH 4 source pathways led to statistically significant correlations between NH 3 and CH 4 in 68% of the 69 downwind plumes sampled. At longer sampling distances, the NH 3:CH 4 enhancement ratio decreases 20–30%, suggesting the potential for NH 3 deposition as a loss term for plumes within a few kilometers downwind of feedlots. Aircraft boundary layer transect measurements directly above surface mobile measurements in the dairy region show comparable gradients and geometric mean enhancement ratios within measurement uncertainties, even when including NH 3 partitioning to submicron particles. Individual NH 3 and CH 4 plumes sampled at close proximity where losses are minimal are not necessarily correlated due to lack of mixing and distinct source pathways. As a result, our analyses have important implications for constraining NH 3 sink and plume variability influences on regional NH 3 emission estimates and for improving NH 3 emission inventory spatial allocations.« less

Temporal variability in wind-wave climate and its validation with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas for the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.

2017-08-01

The head Bay region bordering the northern Bay of Bengal is a densely populated area with a complex geomorphologic setting, and highly vulnerable to extreme water levels along with other factors like sea level rise and impact of tropical cyclones. The influence of climate change on wind-wave regime from this region of Bay of Bengal is not known well and that requires special attention, and there is a need to perform its long-term assessment for societal benefits. This study provides a comprehensive analysis on the temporal variability in domain averaged wind speed, significant wave height (SWH) utilizing satellite altimeter data (1992-2012) and mean wave period using ECMWF reanalysis products ERA-Interim (1992-2012) and ERA-20C (1992-2010) over this region. The SWH derived from WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model along with the ERA-Interim reanalysis supplements the observed variability in satellite altimeter observations. Further, the study performs an extensive error estimation of SWH and mean wave period with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas that shows a high degree of under-estimation in the wave atlas mean wave period. Annual mean and wind speed maxima from altimeter show an increasing trend, and to a lesser extent in the SWH. Interestingly, the estimated trend is higher for maxima compared to the mean conditions. Analysis of decadal variability exhibits an increased frequency of higher waves in the present decade compared to the past. Linear trend analysis show significant upswing in spatially averaged ERA-20C mean wave period, whereas the noticed variations are marginal in the ERA-Interim data. A separate trend analysis for the wind-seas, swell wave heights and period from ERA-20C decipher the fact that distant swells governs the local wind-wave climatology over the head Bay region, and over time the swell activity have increased in this region.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

2017-10-01

Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

The Technical Efficiency of Specialised Milk Farms: A Regional View

PubMed Central

Špička, Jindřich; Smutka, Luboš

2014-01-01

The aim of the article is to evaluate production efficiency and its determinants of specialised dairy farming among the EU regions. In the most of European regions, there is a relatively high significance of small specialised farms including dairy farms. The DEAVRS method (data envelopment analysis with variable returns to scale) reveals efficient and inefficient regions including the scale efficiency. In the next step, the two-sample t-test determines differences of economic and structural indicators between efficient and inefficient regions. The research reveals that substitution of labour by capital/contract work explains the variability of the farm net value added per AWU (annual work unit) income indicator by more than 30%. The significant economic determinants of production efficiency in specialised dairy farming are farm size, herd size, crop output per hectare, productivity of energy, and capital (at α = 0.01). Specialised dairy farms in efficient regions have significantly higher farm net value added per AWU than inefficient regions. Agricultural enterprises in inefficient regions have a more extensive structure and produce more noncommodity output (public goods). Specialised dairy farms in efficient regions have a slightly higher milk yield, specific livestock costs of feed, bedding, and veterinary services per livestock unit. PMID:25050408

A wood density and aboveground biomass variability assessment using pre-felling inventory data in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Svob, Sienna; Arroyo-Mora, J Pablo; Kalacska, Margaret

2014-12-01

The high spatio-temporal variability of aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests is a large source of uncertainty in forest carbon stock estimation. Due to their spatial distribution and sampling intensity, pre-felling inventories are a potential source of ground level data that could help reduce this uncertainty at larger spatial scales. Further, exploring the factors known to influence tropical forest biomass, such as wood density and large tree density, will improve our knowledge of biomass distribution across tropical regions. Here, we evaluate (1) the variability of wood density and (2) the variability of AGB across five ecosystems of Costa Rica. Using forest management (pre-felling) inventories we found that, of the regions studied, Huetar Norte had the highest mean wood density of trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) greater than or equal to 30 cm, 0.623 ± 0.182 g cm -3 (mean ± standard deviation). Although the greatest wood density was observed in Huetar Norte, the highest mean estimated AGB (EAGB) of trees with a DBH greater than or equal to 30 cm was observed in Osa peninsula (173.47 ± 60.23 Mg ha -1 ). The density of large trees explained approximately 50% of EAGB variability across the five ecosystems studied. Comparing our study's EAGB to published estimates reveals that, in the regions of Costa Rica where AGB has been previously sampled, our forest management data produced similar values. This study presents the most spatially rich analysis of ground level AGB data in Costa Rica to date. Using forest management data, we found that EAGB within and among five Costa Rican ecosystems is highly variable. Combining commercial logging inventories with ecological plots will provide a more representative ground level dataset for the calibration of the models and remotely sensed data used to EAGB at regional and national scales. Additionally, because the non-protected areas of the tropics offer the greatest opportunity to reduce rates of deforestation and forest degradation, logging inventories offer a promising source of data to support mechanisms such as the United Nations REDD + (Reducing Emissions from Tropical Deforestation and Degradation) program.

High intralocus variability and interlocus recombination promote immunological diversity in a minimal major histocompatibility system.

PubMed

Wilson, Anthony B; Whittington, Camilla M; Bahr, Angela

2014-12-20

The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC/MH) have attracted considerable scientific interest due to their exceptional levels of variability and important function as part of the adaptive immune system. Despite a large number of studies on MH class II diversity of both model and non-model organisms, most research has focused on patterns of genetic variability at individual loci, failing to capture the functional diversity of the biologically active dimeric molecule. Here, we take a systematic approach to the study of MH variation, analyzing patterns of genetic variation at MH class IIα and IIβ loci of the seahorse, which together form the immunologically active peptide binding cleft of the MH class II molecule. The seahorse carries a minimal class II system, consisting of single copies of both MH class IIα and IIβ, which are physically linked and inherited in a Mendelian fashion. Both genes are ubiquitously expressed and detectible in the brood pouch of male seahorses throughout pregnancy. Genetic variability of the two genes is high, dominated by non-synonymous variation concentrated in their peptide-binding regions. Coding variation outside these regions is negligible, a pattern thought to be driven by intra- and interlocus recombination. Despite the tight physical linkage of MH IIα and IIβ loci, recombination has produced novel composite alleles, increasing functional diversity at sites responsible for antigen recognition. Antigen recognition by the adaptive immune system of the seahorse is enhanced by high variability at both MH class IIα and IIβ loci. Strong positive selection on sites involved in pathogen recognition, coupled with high levels of intra- and interlocus recombination, produce a patchwork pattern of genetic variation driven by genetic hitchhiking. Studies focusing on variation at individual MH loci may unintentionally overlook an important component of ecologically relevant variation.

Recent Changes in Tropospheric Ozone in the Tropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Ziemke, J. R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This paper presents a detailed characterization of tropical tropospheric column ozone variability on time scales varying from a few days to a solar cycle. The study is based on more than 20 years (1979 to the present) of tropospheric column ozone time series derived from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method using total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data. Results indicate three distinct regions in the tropics with distinctly three different zonal characteristics related to seasonal, interannual and solar variabilities. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Tropospheric column ozone in the Atlantic region peaks at about the same time (September-October) from 20 N to 20 S. The amplitude of the annual cycle, however, varies from about 3 to 6 Dobson unit (DU) from north to south of the equator. In comparison, the annual cycle in both the eastern and western Pacific is generally week and the phase varies from peak values in March and April in the northern hemisphere to September and October in the southern hemisphere. The interannual pattern in the three regions are also very different. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi biennial oscillation in the tropospheric column ozone which is out of phase with the stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region caused by high pollution and high concentration of ozone producing precursors. The observed pattern, however, does not seem to be related to the interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead, it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events, there is anomalously low ozone in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific indicating the effects of convectively driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in tropospheric column ozone in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale forest fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.

Seasonal Variability Study of the Tropospheric Zenithal Delay in the South America using regional Numerical Weather Prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapucci, L. F.; Monico, J. G.; Machado, L. T.

2007-05-01

In 2010 a new navigation and administration system of the air traffic, denominated CNS-ATM (Communication Navigation Surveillance - Air Traffic Management) should be running operationally in South America. This new system will basically employ the positioning techniques by satellites to the management and air traffic control. However, the efficiency of this new system demands the knowledge of the behavior of the atmosphere, consequently, an appropriated Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) modeling in a regional scale. The predictions of ZTD values from Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP), denominated here dynamic modeling, is an alternative to model the atmospheric gases effects in the radio-frequency signals in real time. Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), jointly with researchers from UNESP (Sao Paulo State University), has generated operationally prediction of ZTD values to South America Continent (available in the electronic address http:satelite.cptec.inpe.br/htmldocs/ztd/zenithal.htm). The available regional version is obtained using ETA model (NWP model with horizontal resolution of 20 km and 42 levels in the vertical). The application of NWP permit assess the temporal and spatial variation of ZTD values, which is an important characteristic of this techniques. The aim of the present paper is to investigate the ZTD seasonal variability over South America continent. A variability analysis of the ZTD components [hydrostatic(ZHD) and wet(ZWD)] is also presented, as such as discussion of main factors that influence this variation in this region. The hydrostatic component variation is related with atmospheric pressure oscillation, which is influenced by relief and high pressure centers that prevail over different region of the South America continent. The wet component oscillation is due to the temperature and humidity variability, which is also influenced by relief and by synoptic events like: the penetration the cold front from Antarctic pole into the continent and occurrence of humidity convergence zones. In South America there are two main convergence zones that has strong influence in the troposphere variability, the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) and the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone) zones. These convergence zones are characterized by an extensive precipitation band and high nebulosity almost stationary. The physical processes associated with these convergence zones present strong impacts in the variability of ZWD values. This work aims to contribute with ZTD modeling over South America continent using NWP to identify where and when the ZTD values present lower predictability in this region, and consequently, minimizing the error in the GNSS positioning that apply this technique.

How heart rate variability affects emotion regulation brain networks.

PubMed

Mather, Mara; Thayer, Julian

2018-02-01

Individuals with high heart rate variability tend to have better emotional well-being than those with low heart rate variability, but the mechanisms of this association are not yet clear. In this paper, we propose the novel hypothesis that by inducing oscillatory activity in the brain, high amplitude oscillations in heart rate enhance functional connectivity in brain networks associated with emotion regulation. Recent studies using daily biofeedback sessions to increase the amplitude of heart rate oscillations suggest that high amplitude physiological oscillations have a causal impact on emotional well-being. Because blood flow timing helps determine brain network structure and function, slow oscillations in heart rate have the potential to strengthen brain network dynamics, especially in medial prefrontal regulatory regions that are particularly sensitive to physiological oscillations.

Future contingencies and photovoltaic system worth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. J.; Thomas, M. G.; Bonk, G. J.

1982-09-01

The value of dispersed photovoltaic systems connected to the utility grid was calculated using the optimized generation planning program. The 1986 to 2001 time period was used for this study. Photovoltaic systems were dynamically integrated, up to 5% total capacity, into 9 NERC based regions under a range of future fuel and economic contingencies. Value was determined by the change in revenue requirements due to the photovoltaic additions. Displacement of high cost fuel was paramount to value, while capacity displacement was highly variable and dependent upon regional fuel mix.

Analysis of a Small Vigorous Mesoscale Convective System in a Low-Shear Environment. Pt. 1; Formation, Echo Structure and Lightning Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knupp, Kevin; Geerts, Bart; Goodman, Steven J.

1997-01-01

The precipitation output was highly variable due to the transient nature of the intense convective elements. This result is attributed to the high Richardson number (175) of the environment, which is much higher than that of the typical MCS environment. The development of the stratiform precipitation was accomplished locally (in situ), and not be advection of from the convective region. In situ charging of the stratiform region is also supported by the observations.

PubMed

La Torre, Giuseppe; Verrengia, Giovanna; Saulle, Rossella; Kheiraoui, Flavia; Mannocci, Alice

2017-06-28

To identify the determinants of the regional differences in work injuries and mortality rates in Italy. Several linear regression models were built assessing the association between regional differences in work mortality and injury rates (as dependent variables) and socio-demographic factors (occupation and population) and variables describing alcohol consumption, mean age and availability of health care (as independent variables). Data sources are from ISTAT, INAIL, Health for All database and the national report Osservasalute. The analysis was carried out using data coming from all the Italian Regions. The mean work mortality rate for the period 2006-2014 was 7.73 (DS 1.85) per 100,000 workers, while the injury rate was 4503.1 (DS 1413.5) per 100,000 workers. Socio-demographic variables and that related to health care (TC availability) were inversely associated with mortality rates, while for the work injury rates, significant associations with alcohol were found, while Gross domestic product and TC availability were inversely associated. The study pointed out the extreme heterogeneity between different geographical areas in the field of work injury, due to different socio-demographic and economic factors. In the future, health surveillance and work injury and mortality rates could be improved in areas at high risk.

How Does Snow Persistence Relate to Annual Streamflow in Mountain Watersheds of the Western U.S. With Wet Maritime and Dry Continental Climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, John C.; Saavedra, Freddy A.; Kampf, Stephanie K.

2018-04-01

With climate warming, many regions are experiencing changes in snow accumulation and persistence. These changes are known to affect streamflow volume, but the magnitude of the effect varies between regions. This research evaluates whether variables derived from remotely sensed snow cover can be used to estimate annual streamflow at the small watershed scale across the western U.S., a region with a wide range of climate types. We compared snow cover variables derived from MODIS, snow persistence (SP), and snow season (SS), to more commonly utilized metrics, snow fraction (fraction of precipitation falling as snow, SF), and peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Each variable represents different information about snow, and this comparison assesses similarities and differences between the snow metrics. Next, we evaluated how two snow variables, SP and SWE, related to annual streamflow (Q) for 119 USGS reference watersheds and examined whether these relationships varied for wet/warm (precipitation surplus) and dry/cold (precipitation deficit) watersheds. Results showed high correlations between all snow variables, but the slopes of these relationships differed between climates, with wet/warm watersheds displaying lower SF and higher SWE for the same SP. In dry/cold watersheds, both SP and SNODAS SWE correlated with Q spatially across all watersheds and over time within individual watersheds. We conclude that SP can be used to map spatial patterns of annual streamflow generation in dry/cold parts of the region. Applying this approach to the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrates that 50% of streamflow comes from areas >3,000 masl. If the relationship between SP and Q is similar in other dry/cold regions, this approach could be used to estimate annual streamflow in ungauged basins.

Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

2017-12-01

To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input. Similarly, the relationship between N status and (relative) N leaching is highly variable due to confounding factors such as soil water fluxes, fire occurrence, and growing season length. Nevertheless, our results suggest that regions with very high N deposition rates are approaching a state of N saturation.

The phosphotransferase system-dependent sucrose utilization regulon in enteropathogenic Escherichia coli strains is located in a variable chromosomal region containing iap sequences.

PubMed

Treviño-Quintanilla, Luis Gerardo; Escalante, Adelfo; Caro, Alma Delia; Martínez, Alfredo; González, Ricardo; Puente, José Luis; Bolívar, Francisco; Gosset, Guillermo

2007-01-01

The capacity to utilize sucrose as a carbon and energy source (Scr(+) phenotype) is a highly variable trait among Escherichia coli strains. In this study, seven enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) strains from different sources were studied for their capacity to grow using sucrose. Liquid media cultures showed that all analyzed strains have the Scr(+) phenotype and two distinct groups were defined: one of five and another of two strains displaying doubling times of 67 and 125 min, respectively. The genes conferring the Scr(+) phenotype in one of the fast-growing strains (T19) were cloned and sequenced. Comparative sequence analysis revealed that this strain possesses the scr regulon genes scrKYABR, encoding phosphoenolpyruvate:phosphotransferase system-dependent sucrose transport and utilization activities. Transcript level quantification revealed sucrose-dependent induction of scrK and scrR genes in fast-growing strains, whereas no transcripts were detected in slow-growing strains. Sequence comparison analysis revealed that the scr genes in strain T19 are almost identical to those present in the scr regulon of prototype EPEC E2348/69 and in both strains, the scr genes are inserted in the chromosomal intergenic region of hypothetical genes ygcE and ygcF. Comparison of the ygcE-ygcF intergenic region sequence of strains MG1655, enterohemorrhagic EDL933, uropathogenic ECFT073 and EPEC T19-E2348/69 revealed that the number of extragenic highly repeated iap sequences corresponded to nine, four, two and none, respectively. These results show that the iap sequence-containing chromosomal ygcE-ygcF intergenic region is highly variable in E. coli. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Chlorophyll-a variability in the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge: Analysis of a coupled biophysical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilmahamod, A. F.; Hermes, J. C.; Reason, C. J. C.

2016-02-01

The biological variability of the upwelling region of the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), both at surface and subsurface levels, is investigated using monthly outputs of a coupled biophysical model from 1958 to 2011. Owing to its large spatial distribution and sensitivity to climate variability, the SCTR is studied as three distinct regions; namely, sub-regions 1 (western; 5°S-12°S, 55°E-65°E), 2 (central; 5°S-12°S, 65°E-75°E) and 3 (eastern; 5°S-12°S, 75°E-90°E). Surface and subsurface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) exhibit completely different response mechanisms in sub-region 3 compared to sub-regions 1 and 2 during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. During the intense 1997/1998 ENSO-IOD event, the high Chl-a tongue observed in the eastern Indian Ocean induces an increase in surface concentration in sub-region 3, whose subsurface variability is also substantially less (more) impacted by downwelling (upwelling) Rossby waves generated by El Niño (La Niña) forcing. After filtering out the annual signal, wavelet analysis of surface Chl-a revealed a significant 6 month periodicity in sub-regions 1 and 2 whereas a 5-year signal dominated in sub-region 3. The latter suggests that sub-region 3 is more prone to different ENSO/IOD influences, due to its proximity to the eastern Indian Ocean. In the unfiltered data, the subsurface Chl-a in sub-region 3 exhibits a strong signal near 1 year, with sub-regions 1 and 2 having a pronounced 6-year and 5-year signals respectively. These analyses show that the SCTR cannot be investigated as a single homogeneous region due to its large spatial distribution and different response mechanisms to climate events. Furthermore, changes in SST, thermocline depth, winds and Chl-a before and after the 1976-1977 climate shift differed across the SCTR, further highlighting the heterogeneity of this sensitive region in the Indian Ocean.

A Linkage of Recent Arctic Summer Sea Ice and Snowfall Variability of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamoto, K.; Honda, M.; Ukita, J.

2014-12-01

In spite of its mid-latitude location, Japan has a markedly high amount of snowfall, which owes much to the presence of cold air-break from Siberia and thus depends on the strength of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low. With this background this study examines the relationship between interannual variability and spatial patterns of snowfall in Japan with large-scale atmospheric and sea ice variations. The lag regression map of the winter snowfall in Japan on the time series of the Arctic SIE from the preceding summer shows a seesaw pattern in the snowfall, suggesting an Arctic teleconnection to regional weather. From the EOF analyses conducted on the snowfall distribution in Japan, we identify two modes with physical significance. The NH SIC and SLP regressed on PC1 show a sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Seas and anomalous strength of the Siberia high as discussed in Honda et al. (2009) and other studies, which support the above notion that the snowfall variability of Japan is influenced by Arctic sea ice conditions. Another mode is related to the AO/NAO and the hemispheric scale double sea-ice seesaw centered over the sub-Arctic region: one between the Labrador and Nordic Seas in the Atlantic and the other between the Okhotsk and Bering Seas from the Pacific as discussed in Ukita et al. (2007). Together, observations point to a significant role of the sea-ice in determining mid-latitude regional climate and weather patterns.

Elemental mercury concentrations and fluxes in the tropical atmosphere and ocean.

PubMed

Soerensen, Anne L; Mason, Robert P; Balcom, Prentiss H; Jacob, Daniel J; Zhang, Yanxu; Kuss, Joachim; Sunderland, Elsie M

2014-10-07

Air-sea exchange of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) is a critical component of the global biogeochemical Hg cycle. To better understand variability in atmospheric and oceanic Hg(0), we collected high-resolution measurements across large gradients in seawater temperature, salinity, and productivity in the Pacific Ocean (20°N-15°S). We modeled surface ocean Hg inputs and losses using an ocean general circulation model (MITgcm) and an atmospheric chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Observed surface seawater Hg(0) was much more variable than atmospheric concentrations. Peak seawater Hg(0) concentrations (∼ 130 fM) observed in the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) were ∼ 3-fold greater than surrounding areas (∼ 50 fM). This is similar to observations from the Atlantic Ocean. Peak evasion in the northern Pacific ITCZ was four times higher than surrounding regions and located at the intersection of high wind speeds and elevated seawater Hg(0). Modeling results show that high Hg inputs from enhanced precipitation in the ITCZ combined with the shallow ocean mixed layer in this region drive elevated seawater Hg(0) concentrations. Modeled seawater Hg(0) concentrations reproduce observed peaks in the ITCZ of both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans but underestimate its magnitude, likely due to insufficient deep convective scavenging of oxidized Hg from the upper troposphere. Our results demonstrate the importance of scavenging of reactive mercury in the upper atmosphere driving variability in seawater Hg(0) and net Hg inputs to biologically productive regions of the tropical ocean.

Factors affecting unmet need for family planning in southern nations, nationalities and peoples region, ethiopia.

PubMed

Hailemariam, Assefa; Haddis, Fikrewold

2011-07-01

High fertility and low contraceptive prevalence characterize Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region. In such populations, unmet needs for contraception have a tendency to be high, mainly due to the effect of socio-economic and demographic variables. However, there has not been any study examining the relationship between these variables and unmet need in the region. This study, therefore, identifies the key socio- demographic determinants of unmet need for family planning in the region. The study used data from the 2000 and 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. A total of 2,133 currently married women age 15-49 from the 2000 survey and 1,988 from the 2005 survey were included in the study. Unmet need for spacing, unmet need for limiting and total unmet need were used as dependent variables. Socio- demographic variables (respondent's age, age at marriage, number of living children, sex composition of living children, child mortality experience, place of residence, respondent's and partner's education, religion and work status) were treated as explanatory variables and their relative importance was examined on each of the dependent variables using multinomial and binary logistic regression models. Unmet need for contraception increased from 35.1% in 2000 to 37.4% in 2005. Unmet need for spacing remained constant at about 25%, while unmet need for limiting increased by 20% between 2000 and 2005. Age, age at marriage, number of living children, place of residence, respondent's education, knowledge of family planning, respondent's work status, being visited by a family planning worker and survey year emerged as significant factors affecting unmet need. On the other hand, number of living children, education, age and age at marriage were the only explanatory variables affecting unmet need for limiting. Number of living children, place of residence, age and age at marriage were also identified as factors affecting total unmet need for contraception. unmet need for spacing is more prevalent than unmet need for limiting. Women with unmet need for both spacing and limiting are more likely to be living in rural areas, have lower level of education, lower level of knowledge about family planning methods, have no work other than household chores, and have never been visited by a family planning worker. In order to address unmet need for family planning in the region, policy should set mechanisms to enforce the law on minimum age for marriage, improve child survival and increase educational access to females. In addition, the policy should promote awareness creation about family planning in rural areas.

Variations in the structural and functional diversity of zooplankton over vertical and horizontal environmental gradients en route to the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait.

PubMed

Gluchowska, Marta; Trudnowska, Emilia; Goszczko, Ilona; Kubiszyn, Anna Maria; Blachowiak-Samolyk, Katarzyna; Walczowski, Waldemar; Kwasniewski, Slawomir

2017-01-01

A multi-scale approach was used to evaluate which spatial gradient of environmental variability is the most important in structuring zooplankton diversity in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). The WSC is the main conveyor of warm and biologically rich Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait. The data set included 85 stratified vertical zooplankton samples (obtained from depths up to 1000 metres) covering two latitudinal sections (76°30'N and 79°N) located across the multi-path WSC system. The results indicate that the most important environmental variables shaping the zooplankton structural and functional diversity and standing stock variability are those associated with depth, whereas variables acting in the horizontal dimension are of lesser importance. Multivariate analysis of the zooplankton assemblages, together with different univariate descriptors of zooplankton diversity, clearly illustrated the segregation of zooplankton taxa in the vertical plane. The epipelagic zone (upper 200 m) hosted plentiful, Oithona similis-dominated assemblages with a high proportion of filter-feeding zooplankton. Although total zooplankton abundance declined in the mesopelagic zone (200-1000 m), zooplankton assemblages in that zone were more diverse and more evenly distributed, with high contributions from both herbivorous and carnivorous taxa. The vertical distribution of integrated biomass (mg DW m-2) indicated that the total zooplankton biomass in the epipelagic and mesopelagic zones was comparable. Environmental gradients acting in the horizontal plane, such as the ones associated with different ice cover and timing of the spring bloom, were reflected in the latitudinal variability in protist community structure and probably caused differences in succession in the zooplankton community. High abundances of Calanus finmarchicus in the WSC core branch suggest the existence of mechanisms advantageous for higher productivity or/and responsible for physical concentration of zooplankton. Our results indicate that regional hydrography plays a primary role in shaping zooplankton variability in the WSC on the way to the Arctic Ocean, with additional effects caused by biological factors related to seasonality in pelagic ecosystem development, resulting in regional differences in food availability or biological production between the continental slope and the deep ocean regions.

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Moges, Semu; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33 %, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills.

Potential Impact of North Atlantic Climate Variability on Ocean Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Muhling, B.; Lee, S. K.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Enfield, D. B.; Lamkin, J. T.; Roffer, M. A.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have shown that upper ocean circulations largely determine primary production in the euphotic layers, here the global ocean model with biogeochemistry (GFDL's Modular Ocean Model with TOPAZ biogeochemistry) forced with the ERA-Interim is used to simulate the natural variability of biogeochemical processes in global ocean during 1979-present. Preliminary results show that the surface chlorophyll is overall underestimated in MOM-TOPAZ, but its spatial pattern is fairly realistic. Relatively high chlorophyll variability is shown in the subpolar North Atlantic, northeastern tropical Atlantic, and equatorial Atlantic. Further analysis suggests that the chlorophyll variability in the North Atlantic Ocean is affected by long-term climate variability. For the subpolar North Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is light-limited and is significantly correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation. A dipole pattern of chlorophyll variability is found between the northeastern tropical Atlantic and equatorial Atlantic. For the northeastern North Atlantic, the chlorophyll variability is significantly correlated with Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the negative phase of AMM and AMO, the increased trade wind in the northeast North Atlantic can lead to increased upwelling of nutrients. In the equatorial Atlantic region, the chlorophyll variability is largely link to Atlantic-Niño and associated equatorial upwelling of nutrients. The potential impact of climate variability on the distribution of pelagic fishes (i.e. yellowfin tuna) are discussed.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Climatic and ecological controls on variability of fire activity in the tropics and subtropics derived from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Gobron, N.; Dolman, H. J.

2006-12-01

El Nino-Southern Oscillation-linked variations in biomass burning emissions substantially contribute to interannual variability in the growth rate of many trace gases, yet ecological and climatic controls on fire activity are not well known. We used satellite-derived datasets of biomass burning, precipitation rates, and net primary production (NPP) in the tropics and subtropics during 1998 through 2005 to investigate the factors that regulate interannual variability in fire emissions. In many xeric regions that have low levels of NPP, we found a positive relationship between precipitation, NPP, and fire activity, implying that fire in these regions is limited to years when precipitation allows for the build-up of sufficient biomass or fuel loads to allow fire spread. This was most evident in regions where mean annual precipitation was below approximately 600 mm / year, including xeric regions of Africa and Northern Australia. In contrast, in areas of the tropics undergoing active deforestation, including, Indonesia, Central America, and parts of South America we found a significant negative correlation between precipitation and fire activity during the dry season. This implies that human use of fire in these regions in the deforestation process is at least partly limited by periods when high moisture levels limit ignition and fire activity.

Characterizing Mediterranean Land Surfaces as Component of the Regional Climate System by Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolle, H.-J.; Koslowsky, D.; Menenti, M.; Nerry, F.; Otterman, Joseph; Starr, D.

1998-01-01

Extensive areas in the Mediterranean region are subject to land degradation and desertification. The high variability of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere affects the regional climate. Relevant surface characteristics, such as spectral reflectance, surface emissivity in the thermal-infrared region, and vegetation indices, serve as "primary" level indicators for the state of the surface. Their spatial, seasonal and interannual variability can be monitored from satellites. Using relationships between these primary data and combining them with prior information about the land surfaces (such as topography, dominant soil type, land use, collateral ground measurements and models), a second layer of information is built up which specifies the land surfaces as a component of the regional climate system. To this category of parameters which are directly involved in the exchange of energy, momentum and mass between the surface and the atmosphere, belong broadband albedo, thermodynamic surface temperature, vegetation types, vegetation cover density, soil top moisture, and soil heat flux. Information about these parameters finally leads to the computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The methodology was tested with pilot data sets. Full resolution, properly calibrated and normalized NOAA-AVHRR multi-annual primary data sets are presently compiled for the whole Mediterranean area, to study interannual variability and longer term trends.

Individual differences and time-varying features of modular brain architecture.

PubMed

Liao, Xuhong; Cao, Miao; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2017-05-15

Recent studies have suggested that human brain functional networks are topologically organized into functionally specialized but inter-connected modules to facilitate efficient information processing and highly flexible cognitive function. However, these studies have mainly focused on group-level network modularity analyses using "static" functional connectivity approaches. How these extraordinary modular brain structures vary across individuals and spontaneously reconfigure over time remain largely unknown. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional MRI data (N=105) from the Human Connectome Project and a graph-based modularity analysis to systematically investigate individual variability and dynamic properties in modular brain networks. We showed that the modular structures of brain networks dramatically vary across individuals, with higher modular variability primarily in the association cortex (e.g., fronto-parietal and attention systems) and lower variability in the primary systems. Moreover, brain regions spontaneously changed their module affiliations on a temporal scale of seconds, which cannot be simply attributable to head motion and sampling error. Interestingly, the spatial pattern of intra-subject dynamic modular variability largely overlapped with that of inter-subject modular variability, both of which were highly reproducible across repeated scanning sessions. Finally, the regions with remarkable individual/temporal modular variability were closely associated with network connectors and the number of cognitive components, suggesting a potential contribution to information integration and flexible cognitive function. Collectively, our findings highlight individual modular variability and the notable dynamic characteristics in large-scale brain networks, which enhance our understanding of the neural substrates underlying individual differences in a variety of cognition and behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

PubMed

Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

2013-12-01

Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diro, G. T.; Sushama, L.; Huziy, O.

2018-04-01

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.

Spaceborne Radar Observations of High Mountain Asia Snow and Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, J.

2016-12-01

The glaciers of High Mountain Asia show a negative trend in mass balance. Within its sub regions, however, a complex pattern of climate regions and glacial forcings arise. This complexity, coupled with the challenges of field study in the region, illicit notable uncertainties both in observation and prediction of glacial mass balance. Beyond being valuable indicators of climate variability, the glaciers of High Mountain Asia are important water resources for densely populated downstream regions, and also contribute to global sea level rise. Scatterometry, regularly used in polar regions to detect melt in snow and ice, has seen little use in lower latitude glaciers. In High Mountain Asia, focus has been placed on spatial and temporal trends in scatterometer signals for melt onset and freeze-up. In polar regions, scatterometry and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data have been used to estimate snow accumulation, along with interferometric SAR (InSAR) to measure glacier velocity, better constraining glacial mass balance estimates. For this poster, multiple radar sensors will be compared with both in situ as well as reanalysis precipitation data in varying climate regions in High Mountain Asia to explore correlations between snow accumulation and radar signals. Snowmelt timing influences on InSAR coherence may also be explored.

Generating High Resolution Climate Scenarios Through Regional Climate Modelling Over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndhlovu, G. Z.; Woyessa, Y. E.; Vijayaraghavan, S.

2017-12-01

limate change has impacted the global environment and the Continent of Africa, especially Southern Africa, regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa, has not been spared from these impacts. Global Climate Models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions of 150-300 km do not provide sufficient details at the local basin scale due to mismatch between the size of river basins and the grid cell of the GCM. This makes it difficult to apply the outputs of GCMs directly to impact studies such as hydrological modelling. This necessitates the use of regional climate modelling at high resolutions that provide detailed information at regional and local scales to study both climate change and its impacts. To this end, an experiment was set up and conducted with PRECIS, a regional climate model, to generate climate scenarios at a high resolution of 25km for the local region in Zambezi River basin of Southern Africa. The major input data used included lateral and surface boundary conditions based on the GCMs. The data is processed, analysed and compared with CORDEX climate change project data generated for Africa. This paper, highlights the major differences of the climate scenarios generated by PRECIS Model and CORDEX Project for Africa and further gives recommendations for further research on generation of climate scenarios. The climatic variables such as precipitation and temperatures have been analysed for flood and droughts in the region. The paper also describes the setting up and running of an experiment using a high-resolution PRECIS model. In addition, a description has been made in running the model and generating the output variables on a sub basin scale. Regional climate modelling which provides information on climate change impact may lead to enhanced understanding of adaptive water resources management. Understanding the regional climate modelling results on sub basin scale is the first step in analysing complex hydrological processes and a basis for designing of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region. Key words: Climate change, regional climate modelling, hydrological processes, extremes, scenarios [1] Corresponding author: Email:gndhlovu@cut.ac.za Tel:+27 (0) 51 507 3072

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, C.; Faust, E.

2013-01-01

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr - driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

How to Sustain Warm Northern High Latitudes during the Late Pliocene? Roles of CO2, Orbital Changes and Increased Mediterranean Salinity on Oceanic Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contoux, C.; Zhang, Z.; Li, C.; Nisancioglu, K. H.; Risebrobakken, B.

2014-12-01

Northern high latitudes are thought to have been especially warm during the late Pliocene (e.g. Dowsett et al., 2013). However, the mechanisms sustaining these warm high latitude conditions are debated, especially because warm high latitudes are not necessarily depending on a stronger AMOC (Zhang et al., 2013). On the global scale, several authors reported CO2 level variability during the Pliocene ranging from 280 ppm to 450 ppm (e.g. Badger et al., 2013), which could be linked with orbital variability. More regionally, an aridification of the Mediterranean region is thought to have increased the Mediterranean outflow during the same period (e.g. Khélifi et al., 2009). These different forcings must have impacted on salinity and temperature profiles in the North Atlantic/Arctic oceans, which are then recorded at the local scale in the proxies derived from sediment cores. In order to carefully interpret these proxies, it is necessary to understand the large scale dynamics of the region during that period and its potential maximum variability with CO2 and orbital changes as well as Mediterranean outflow increase. Using the NorESM-L coupled atmosphere ocean model, which has a refined oceanic grid in the Nordic Seas region, we investigate the roles of extreme CO2and orbital variability on the Atlantic and Arctic oceanic circulation. An additional test to higher salinity in the Mediterranean is carried out. This study is part of a larger project which aims at characterising the state of the Nordic Seas during the Pliocene, and includes multi-proxy reconstructions and sensitivity model studies. References Badger et al., 2013. High resolution alkenone palaeobarometry indicates relatively stable pCO2 during the Pliocene (3.3 - 2.8 Ma), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 371, 20130094. Dowsett et al., 2013. Sea surface temperature of the mid-Piacenzian ocean: a data-model comparison, Nature Scientific Reports, 3, 2013, doi:10.1038/srep02013. Khélifi et al., 2009. A major and long term intensification of the Mediterranean outflow water, 3.5 - 3.3 Ma ago, Geology, 2009,37;811-814, doi: 10.1130/G30058A.1 Zhang, Z.-S. et al., 2013. Mid-pliocene Atlantic meridional overturning circulation not unlike modern, Clim. Past, 9, 1495--1504, doi:10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013.

Changes in the regional abundance of hemlock associated with the invasion of hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand)

Treesearch

R. Talbot Trotter; Randall S. Morin; Sonja N. Oswalt; Andrew. Liebhold

2013-01-01

Since its introduction, the non-native hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) has spread to infest hemlock (Tsuga spp.) in at least 18 states in the eastern USA. Previous studies have documented highly variable rates of hemlock mortality among infested stands making it difficult to estimate regional impacts. Here data from the US...

High-Amplitude, Rapid Photometric Variation of the New Polar Master OT J132104.0+560957.8

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-05

channel the captured material onto cyclotron -emitting accretion regions near the WD’s magnetic poles. Because cyclotron emission is heavily beamed, it...of the cyclotron -emitting region can produce dramatic pho- tometric variability modulated at the WD’s spin period (e.g., Gänsicke et al. 2001). A...observations of J1321 could detect the polarized cyclotron emission from the accretion region, conclusively verifying this classification. Figure 1. The

Multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis in Los Altos, Selva and Norte regions, Chiapas, Mexico.

PubMed

Sánchez-Pérez, H J; Díaz-Vázquez, A; Nájera-Ortiz, J C; Balandrano, S; Martín-Mateo, M

2010-01-01

To analyse the proportion of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in cultures performed during the period 2000-2002 in Los Altos, Selva and Norte regions, Chiapas, Mexico, and to analyse MDR-TB in terms of clinical and sociodemographic indicators. Cross-sectional study of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) from the above regions. Drug susceptibility testing results from two research projects were analysed, as were those of routine sputum samples sent in by health personnel for processing (n = 114). MDR-TB was analysed in terms of the various variables of interest using bivariate tests of association and logistic regression. The proportion of primary MDR-TB was 4.6% (2 of 43), that of secondary MDR-TB was 29.2% (7/24), while among those whose history of treatment was unknown the proportion was 14.3% (3/21). According to the logistic regression model, the variables most highly associated with MDR-TB were as follows: having received anti-tuberculosis treatment previously, cough of >3 years' duration and not being indigenous. The high proportion of MDR cases found in the regions studied shows that it is necessary to significantly improve the control and surveillance of PTB.

The Challenge of Simulating the Regional Climate over Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, V.; Mishra, A. K.

2015-12-01

In this study we show that the unique geography of the peninsular Florida with close proximity to strong mesoscale surface ocean currents among other factors warrants the use of relatively high resolution climate models to project Florida's hydroclimate. In the absence of such high resolution climate models we highlight the deficiencies of two relatively coarse spatial resolution CMIP5 models with respect to the warm western boundary current of the Gulf Stream. As a consequence it affects the coastal SST and the land-ocean contrast, affecting the rainy summer seasonal precipitation accumulation over peninsular Florida. We also show this through two sensitivity studies conducted with a regional coupled ocean atmosphere model with different bathymetries that dislocate and modulate the strength of the Gulf Stream that locally affects the SST in the two simulations. These studies show that a stronger and more easterly displaced Gulf Stream produces warmer coastal SST's along the Atlantic coast of Florida that enhances the precipitation over peninsular Florida relative to the other regional climate model simulation. However the regional model simulations indicate that variability of wet season rainfall variability in peninsular Florida becomes less dependent on the land-ocean contrast with a stronger Gulf Stream current.

Subtidal circulation on the Alabama shelf during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzwonkowski, Brian; Park, Kyeong

2012-03-01

Water column velocity and hydrographic measurements on the inner Alabama shelf are used to examine the flow field and its forcing dynamics during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster in the spring and summer of 2010. Comparison between two sites provides insight into the flow variability and dynamics of a shallow, highly stratified shelf in the presence of complicating geographic and bathymetric features. Seasonal currents reveal a convergent flow with strong, highly sheared offshore flow near a submarine bank just outside of Mobile Bay. At synoptic time scales, the flow is relatively consistent with typical characteristics of wind-driven Ekman coastal circulation. Analysis of the depth-averaged along-shelf momentum balance indicates that both bottom stress and along-shelf pressure gradient act to counter wind stress. As a consequence of the along-shelf pressure gradient and thermal wind shear, flow reversals in the bottom currents can occur during periods of transitional winds. Despite the relatively short distance between the two sites (14 km), significant spatial variability is observed. This spatial variability is argued to be a result of local variations in the bathymetry and density field as the study region encompasses a submarine bank near the mouth of a major freshwater source. Given the physical parameters of the system, along-shelf flow in this region would be expected to separate from the local isobaths, generating a mean offshore flow. The local, highly variable density field is expected to be, in part, responsible for the differences in the vertical variability in the current profiles.

Analysis of vegetation changes in Rock Creek Park, 1991-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Krafft, Cairn

2009-01-01

Vegetation data collected at Rock Creek Park every 4 years during 1991-2007 were analyzed for differences among 3 regions within the park and among years. The variables measured and analyzed were percentage of twigs browsed, percentage of canopy cover, species richness of herbaceous plants, number of tree seedlings in each of 7 height classes, tree seedling stocking rate for low deer density and high deer density areas, percentage of tree and shrub cover < 2 m in height, mean diameter at breast height (DBH) of trees > 1 cm DBH, number of tree stems > 1 cm DBH, species richness of trees and shrubs, and mean height of the 5 tallest trees in each plot quadrant. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test for differences and, except for some differences in tree species composition among the 3 regions, no differences (P > 0.01) were found among the 3 regions in the variables discussed above. Many of the variables showed very significant differences (P < 0.01) among years, and causative factors should be investigated further. In addition, importance values were calculated for the 10 most important tree species in each region and changes over time were reported. Future sampling recommendations are also discussed.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.

Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Betancourt, J.L.

2007-01-01

Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700??yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Translational profiling of B cells infected with the Epstein-Barr virus reveals 5' leader ribosome recruitment through upstream open reading frames.

PubMed

Bencun, Maja; Klinke, Olaf; Hotz-Wagenblatt, Agnes; Klaus, Severina; Tsai, Ming-Han; Poirey, Remy; Delecluse, Henri-Jacques

2018-04-06

The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) genome encodes several hundred transcripts. We have used ribosome profiling to characterize viral translation in infected cells and map new translation initiation sites. We show here that EBV transcripts are translated with highly variable efficiency, owing to variable transcription and translation rates, variable ribosome recruitment to the leader region and coverage by monosomes versus polysomes. Some transcripts were hardly translated, others mainly carried monosomes, showed ribosome accumulation in leader regions and most likely represent non-coding RNAs. A similar process was visible for a subset of lytic genes including the key transactivators BZLF1 and BRLF1 in cells infected with weakly replicating EBV strains. This suggests that ribosome trapping, particularly in the leader region, represents a new checkpoint for the repression of lytic replication. We could identify 25 upstream open reading frames (uORFs) located upstream of coding transcripts that displayed 5' leader ribosome trapping, six of which were located in the leader region shared by many latent transcripts. These uORFs repressed viral translation and are likely to play an important role in the regulation of EBV translation.

Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Georgia, 1961-75: analysis of social and environmental factors affecting occurrence.

PubMed Central

Newhouse, V F; Choi, K; Holman, R C; Thacker, S B; D'Angelo, L J; Smith, J D

1986-01-01

For the period of 1961 through 1975, 10 geographic and sociologic variables in each of the 159 counties of Georgia were analyzed to determine how they were correlated with the occurrence of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF). Combinations of variables were transformed into a smaller number of factors using principal-component analysis. Based upon the relative values of these factors, geographic areas of similarity were delineated by cluster analysis. It was found by use of these analyses that the counties of the State formed four similarity clusters, which we called south, central, lower north and upper north. When the incidence of RMSF was subsequently calculated for each of these regions of similarity, the regions had differing RMSF incidence; low in the south and upper north, moderate in the central, and high in the lower north. The four similarity clusters agreed closely with the incidence of RMSF when both were plotted on a map. Thus, when analyzed simultaneously, the 10 variables selected could be used to predict the occurrence of RMSF. The most important variables were those of climate and geography. Of secondary, but still major importance, were the changes over the 15-year period in variables associated with humans and their environmental alterations. Detailed examination of these factors has permitted quantitative evaluation of the simultaneous impacts of the geographic and sociologic variables on the occurrence of RMSF in Georgia. These analyses could be updated to reflect changes in the relevant variables and tested as a means of identifying new high risk areas for RMSF in the State. More generally, this method might be adapted to clarify our understanding of the relative importance of individual variables in the ecology of other diseases or environmental health problems. PMID:3090609

Impact of the biomass burning on methane variability during dry years in the Amazon measured from an aircraft and the AIRS sensor.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Igor Oliveira; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; Kayano, Mary Toshie; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Medeiros, Adan Sady; Guimarães, Patrícia Costa; Barbosa, Cybelli G G; Godoi, Ricardo H M; Martin, Scot T; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira

2018-05-15

The present study examines the spatiotemporal variability and interrelations of the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO) and biomass burning (BB) outbreaks retrieved from satellite data over the Amazon region during the 2003-2012 period. In the climatological context, we found consistent seasonal cycles of BB outbreaks and CO in the Amazon, both variables showing a peak during the dry season. The dominant CO variability mode features the largest positive loadings in the southern Amazon, and describes the interannual CO variations related to BB outbreaks along the deforestation arc during the dry season. In line with CO variability and BB outbreaks, the results show strong correspondence with the spatiotemporal variability of CH 4 in the southern Amazon during years of intense drought. Indeed, the areas with the largest positive CH 4 anomalies in southern Amazon overlap the areas with high BB outbreaks and positive CO anomalies. The analyses also showed that high (low) BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon occur during dry (wet) years. In consequence, the interannual climate variability modulates the BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon, which in turn have considerable impacts on CO and CH 4 interannual variability in the region. Therefore, the BB outbreaks might play a major role in modulating the CH 4 and CO variations, at least in the southern Amazon. This study also provides a comparison between the estimate of satellite and aircraft measurements for the CH 4 over the southern Amazon, which indicates relatively small differences from the aircraft measurements in the lower troposphere, with errors ranging from 0.18% to 1.76%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using MODIS and GRACE to assess water storage in regional Wetlands: Iraqi and Sudd Marsh systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, R.

2015-12-01

Both The Iraqi (Mesopotamian) Marshes, an extensive wetlands system in Iraq, and the Sudd Marshlands, located in Sudan have been heavily impacted by both human and climate forces over the past decades. The Sudd wetlands are highly variable in size, averaging roughly 30,000 km2, but extending to as large as ~130,000 km2 during the wet seasons, while the Iraqi marshes are smaller, at ~15,000 km2, without the same extent of intra-annual variability. A combination of MODIS and GRACE images from 2003-2015 for the study areas were used to determine the time dependent change in surface water area (SWA) in the marshes, marshland extent and variability in total water storage. Combined open water area and vegetation abundance and cover, as determined by MODIS (NDVI and MNDWI), is highly correlated with total mass variability observed by GRACE (RL05 Tellus land grid). Annual variability in the Iraqi marshes correlates well with combined SWA and vegetation extent. Variability of vegetation in the Sudd marshes is seen to correlate well on an annual basis with water storage variation, and with a 2 month lag (water mass increases and decreases lead vegetation increases and decreases) when examined on a monthly basis. As a result, in both systems, the overall wetlands extent and health is observed to be water limited. Predictions for precipitation variability and human diversions of water through either dam storage or navigation modifications are predicted to lower water availability and lower variability in these systems. These two regional wetlands systems will shrink, with resulting loss in habitat and other ecosystem services.

Testing of a single graded groove variable conductance heat pipe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapolnek, Michael R.; Holmes, H. R.; Hager, Brian

1992-07-01

Variable conductance heat pipes (VCHPs) with transport capacities in the 50,000 to 100,000 Watt-inch range will be required to transport the large heat loads anticipated for advanced spacecraft. A high-reliability, nonarterial constant conductance heat pipe with this capacity, the Single Graded Groove (SGG) heat pipe, was developed for NASA's Space Station Freedom. The design and testing of a variable conductance SGG heat pipe are described. Response of the pipe to startup and heat load changes was excellent. After correcting for condenser temperature changes, the evaporator temperature varied by only +/- 4 F for large evaporator heat load changes. The surface tension difference between ends of the gas blocked region was found to measurably affect the performance of the pipe. Performance was negligibly affected by Marangoni flow in the gas blocked region.

Using monitoring data to map amphibian breeding hotspots and describe wetland vulnerability in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Legg, Kristin; Sepulveda, Adam; Hossack, Blake R.; Patla, Debra

2015-01-01

Amphibians have been selected as a “vital sign” by several National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks. An eight-year amphibian monitoring data set provided opportunities to examine spatial and temporal patterns in amphibian breeding richness and wetland desiccation across Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. Amphibian breeding richness was variable across both parks and only four of 31 permanent monitoring catchments contained all four widely distributed species. Annual breeding richness was also variable through time and fluctuated by as much as 75% in some years and catchments. Wetland desiccation was also documented across the region, but alone did not explain variations in amphibian richness. High annual variability across the region emphasizes the need for multiple years of monitoring to accurately describe amphibian richness and wetland desiccation dynamics.

Characterizing synoptic and cloud variability in the northern atlantic using self-organizing maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fish, Carly

Low-level clouds have a significant influence on the Earth's radiation budget and it is thus imperative to understand their behavior within the marine boundary layer (MBL). The cloud properties in the Northeast Atlantic region are highly variable in space and time and are a research focus for many atmospheric scientists. Characterizing the synoptic patterns in the region through the implementation of self-organizing maps (SOMs) enables a climatological grasp of cloud and atmospheric fields. ERA -- Interim and MODIS provide the platform to explore the variability in the Northeast Atlantic for over 30 years of data. Station data comes from CAP -- MBL on Graciosa Island in the Azores, which lies in a strong gradient of cloud and other atmospheric fields, offer an opportunity to incorporate an observational aspect for the years of 2009 and 2010.

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-10-01

We have applied the k-means clustering technique on a maximum daily 8-h running average near-surface ozone (MDA8 O3) gridded dataset over Europe at 1° × 1° resolution for summer 1998-2012. This has resulted in a spatial division of nine regions where ozone presents coherent spatiotemporal patterns. The role of meteorology in the variability of ozone at different time scales has been investigated by using daily meteorological fields from the NCEP-NCAR meteorological reanalysis. In the five regions of central-southern Europe ozone extremes (exceedances of the summer 95th percentile) occur mostly under anticyclonic circulation or weak sea level pressure gradients which trigger elevated temperatures and the recirculation of air masses. In the four northern regions extremes are associated with high-latitude anticyclones that divert the typical westerly flow at those latitudes and cause the advection of aged air masses from the south. The impact of meteorology on the day-to-day variability of ozone has been assessed by means of two different types of multiple linear models. These include as predictors meteorological fields averaged within the regions (;region-based; approach) or synoptic indices indicating the degree of resemblance between the daily meteorological fields over a large domain (25°-70° N, 35° W - 35° E) and their corresponding composites for extreme ozone days (;index-based; approach). With the first approach, a reduced set of variables, always including daily maximum temperature within the region, explains 47-66% of the variability (adjusted R2) in central-southern Europe, while more complex models are needed to explain 27-49% of the variability in the northern regions. The index-based approach yields better results for the regions of northern Europe, with adjusted R2 = 40-57%. Finally, both methodologies have also been applied to reproduce the interannual variability of ozone, with the best models explaining 66-88% of the variance in central-southern Europe and 45-66% in the north. Thus, the regionalisation carried out in this work has allowed establishing clear distinctions between the meteorological drivers of ozone in northern Europe and in the rest of the continent. These drivers are consistent across the different time scales examined (extremes, day-to-day and interannual), which gives confidence in the robustness of the results.

Regional contextual influences on short sleep duration: a 50 universities population-based multilevel study in China.

PubMed

Yang, Tingzhong; Peng, Sihui; Barnett, Ross; Zhang, Chichen

2018-01-01

Ecological models have emphasized that short sleep duration (SSD) is influenced by both individual and environmental variables. However, few studies have considered the latter. The present study explores the influence of urban and regional contextual factors, net of individual characteristics, on the prevalence of SSD among university students in China. Participants were 11,954 students, who were identified through a multistage survey sampling process conducted in 50 universities. Individual data were obtained through a self-administered questionnaire, and contextual variables were retrieved from a national database. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to examine urban and regional variations in high and moderate levels of SSD. Overall the prevalence of high SSD (<6 hours sleep duration) was 2.8% (95% CI: 1.7%,3.9%) and moderate SSD (<7 hours) 24.7% (95% CI: 19.5%, 29.8%). Multilevel logistic regressions confirmed that home region gross domestic product (GDP) and the university regional unemployment rate were associated with SSD, net of other individual- and city-level covariates. Students attending high-level universities also recorded the highest levels of SSD. Of the individual characteristcs, only mother's occupation and student mental health status were related to SSD. The results of this study add important insights about the role of contextual factors affecting SSD among young adults and indicate the need to take into account both past, as well as present, environmental influences to control SSD.

Effects of Recent Regional Soil Moisture Variability on Global Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, L. A.; Madani, N.; Kimball, J. S.; Reichle, R. H.; Colliander, A.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture exerts a major regional control on the inter-annual variability of the global land sink for atmospheric CO2. In semi-arid regions, annual biomass production is closely coupled to variability in soil moisture availability, while in cold-season-affected regions, summer drought offsets the effects of advancing spring phenology. Availability of satellite solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) observations and improvements in atmospheric inversions has led to unprecedented ability to monitor atmospheric sink strength. However, discrepancies still exist between such top-down estimates as atmospheric inversion and bottom-up process and satellite driven models, indicating that relative strength, mechanisms, and interaction of driving factors remain poorly understood. We use soil moisture fields informed by Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) observations to compare recent (2015-2017) and historic (2000-2014) variability in net ecosystem land-atmosphere CO2 exchange (NEE). The operational SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4C) product relates ground-based flux tower measurements to other bottom-up and global top-down estimates to underlying soil moisture and other driving conditions using data-assimilation-based SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4SM). Droughts in coastal Brazil, South Africa, Eastern Africa, and an anomalous wet period in Eastern Australia were observed by L4C. A seasonal seesaw pattern of below-normal sink strength at high latitudes relative to slightly above-normal sink strength for mid-latitudes was also observed. Whereas SMAP-based soil moisture is relatively informative for short-term temporal variability, soil moisture biases that vary in space and with season constrain the ability of the L4C estimates to accurately resolve NEE. Such biases might be caused by irrigation and plant-accessible ground-water. Nevertheless, SMAP L4C daily NEE estimates connect top-down estimates to variability of effective driving factors for accurate estimates of regional-to-global land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

2017-03-01

Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation under the RCP8.5 future, representing a small climate benefit, but the RH-induced PM2.5 change is inconclusive due to the large inter-model differences in RH projections.

Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2017-12-01

Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability recorded in our record suggests complex responses to major and abrupt shifts during these periods, likely due to Florida's subtropical location and the influence of multiple climate forcing mechanisms in the region.

Bottom Pressure Tides Along a Line in the Southeast Atlantic Ocean and Comparisons with Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Byrne, Deidre A.

2010-01-01

Seafloor pressure records, collected at 11 stations aligned along a single ground track of the Topex/Poseidon and Jason satellites, are analyzed for their tidal content. With very low background noise levels and approximately 27 months of high-quality records, tidal constituents can be estimated with unusually high precision. This includes many high-frequency lines up through the seventh-diurnal band. The station deployment provides a unique opportunity to compare with tides estimated from satellite altimetry, point by point along the satellite track, in a region of moderately high mesoscale variability. That variability can significantly corrupt altimeter-based tide estimates, even with 17 years of data. A method to improve the along-track altimeter estimates by correcting the data for nontidal variability is found to yield much better agreement with the bottom-pressure data. The technique should prove useful in certain demanding applications, such as altimetric studies of internal tides.

Population genetic studies of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus): A summary of available data and interpretation of results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Garner, G.W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Cronin, M.A.; Dizon, Andrew E.; Chivers, Susan J.; Perrin, William F.

1997-01-01

A summary of existing population genetics literature is presented for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and interpreted in the context of the species' life-history characteristics and regional heterogeneity in environmental regimes and movement patterns. Several nongenetic data sets including morphology, contaminant levels, geographic variation in reproductive characteristics, and the location and distribution of open-water foraging habitat suggest some degree of spatial structuring. Eleven populations are recognized by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group. Few genetics studies exist for polar bears. Interpretation and generalizations of regional variation in intra- and interpopulation levels of genetic variability are confounded by the paucity of data from many regions and by the fact that no single informative genetic marker has been employed in multiple regions. Early allozyme studies revealed comparatively low levels of genetic variability and no compelling evidence of spatial structuring. Studies employing mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) also found low levels of genetic variation, a lack of phylogenetic structure, and no significant evidence for spatial variation in haplotype frequency. In contrast, microsatellite variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) loci have revealed significant heterogeneity in allele frequency among populations in the Canadian Arctic. These regions are characterized by archipelgic patterns of sea-ice movements. Further studies using highly polymorphic loci are needed in regions characterized by greater polar bear dependency on pelagic sea-ice movements and in regions for which no data currently exist (i.e., Laptev and Novaya Zemlya/Franz Josef).

North African dust emissions and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engelstaedter, Sebastian; Tegen, Ina; Washington, Richard

2006-11-01

The need for a better understanding of the role of atmospheric dust in the climate system and its impact on the environment has led to research of the underlying causes of dust variability in space and time in recent decades. North Africa is one of the largest dust producing regions in the world with dust emissions being highly variable on time scales ranging from diurnal to multiannual. Changes in the dust loading are expected to have an impact on regional and global climate, the biogeochemical cycle, and human environments. The development of satellite derived products of global dust distributions has improved our understanding of dust source regions and transport pathways in the recent years. Dust models are now capable of reproducing more realistic patterns of dust distributions due to an improved parameterization of land surface conditions. A recent field campaign has improved our understanding of the natural environment and emission processes of the most intense and persistent dust sources in the world, the Bodélé Depression in Chad. In situ measurements of dust properties during air craft observations in and down wind of source regions have led to new estimates of the radiative forcing effects which are crucial in predicting future climate change. With a focus on the North African desert regions, this paper provides a review of the understanding of dust source regions, the variability of dust emissions, climatic controls of dust entrainment and transport, the role of human impact on dust emission, and recent developments of global and regional dust models.

Asymmetric DNA methylation of CpG dyads is a feature of secondary DMRs associated with the Dlk1/Gtl2 imprinting cluster in mouse.

PubMed

Guntrum, Megan; Vlasova, Ekaterina; Davis, Tamara L

2017-01-01

Differential DNA methylation plays a critical role in the regulation of imprinted genes. The differentially methylated state of the imprinting control region is inherited via the gametes at fertilization, and is stably maintained in somatic cells throughout development, influencing the expression of genes across the imprinting cluster. In contrast, DNA methylation patterns are more labile at secondary differentially methylated regions which are established at imprinted loci during post-implantation development. To investigate the nature of these more variably methylated secondary differentially methylated regions, we adopted a hairpin linker bisulfite mutagenesis approach to examine CpG dyad methylation at differentially methylated regions associated with the murine Dlk1/Gtl2 imprinting cluster on both complementary strands. We observed homomethylation at greater than 90% of the methylated CpG dyads at the IG-DMR, which serves as the imprinting control element. In contrast, homomethylation was only observed at 67-78% of the methylated CpG dyads at the secondary differentially methylated regions; the remaining 22-33% of methylated CpG dyads exhibited hemimethylation. We propose that this high degree of hemimethylation could explain the variability in DNA methylation patterns at secondary differentially methylated regions associated with imprinted loci. We further suggest that the presence of 5-hydroxymethylation at secondary differentially methylated regions may result in hemimethylation and methylation variability as a result of passive and/or active demethylation mechanisms.

Interannual and cyclone-driven variability in phytoplankton communities of a tropical coastal lagoon.

PubMed

Srichandan, Suchismita; Kim, Ji Yoon; Kumar, Abhishek; Mishra, Deepak R; Bhadury, Punyasloke; Muduli, Pradipta R; Pattnaik, Ajit K; Rastogi, Gurdeep

2015-12-15

One of the main challenges in phytoplankton ecology is to understand their variability at different spatiotemporal scales. We investigated the interannual and cyclone-derived variability in phytoplankton communities of Chilika, the largest tropical coastal lagoon in Asia and the underlying mechanisms in relation to environmental forcing. Between July 2012 and June 2013, Cyanophyta were most prolific in freshwater northern region of the lagoon. A category-5 very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Phailin struck the lagoon on 12th October 2013 and introduced additional variability into the hydrology and phytoplankton communities. Freshwater Cyanophyta further expanded their territory and occupied the northern as well as central region of the lagoon. Satellite remote sensing imagery revealed that the phytoplankton biomass did not change much due to high turbidity prevailing in the lagoon after Phailin. Modeling analysis of species-salinity relationship identified specific responses of phytoplankton taxa to the different salinity regime of lagoon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA Barcode Sequence Identification Incorporating Taxonomic Hierarchy and within Taxon Variability

PubMed Central

Little, Damon P.

2011-01-01

For DNA barcoding to succeed as a scientific endeavor an accurate and expeditious query sequence identification method is needed. Although a global multiple–sequence alignment can be generated for some barcoding markers (e.g. COI, rbcL), not all barcoding markers are as structurally conserved (e.g. matK). Thus, algorithms that depend on global multiple–sequence alignments are not universally applicable. Some sequence identification methods that use local pairwise alignments (e.g. BLAST) are unable to accurately differentiate between highly similar sequences and are not designed to cope with hierarchic phylogenetic relationships or within taxon variability. Here, I present a novel alignment–free sequence identification algorithm–BRONX–that accounts for observed within taxon variability and hierarchic relationships among taxa. BRONX identifies short variable segments and corresponding invariant flanking regions in reference sequences. These flanking regions are used to score variable regions in the query sequence without the production of a global multiple–sequence alignment. By incorporating observed within taxon variability into the scoring procedure, misidentifications arising from shared alleles/haplotypes are minimized. An explicit treatment of more inclusive terminals allows for separate identifications to be made for each taxonomic level and/or for user–defined terminals. BRONX performs better than all other methods when there is imperfect overlap between query and reference sequences (e.g. mini–barcode queries against a full–length barcode database). BRONX consistently produced better identifications at the genus–level for all query types. PMID:21857897

Determining the spatial variability of crop yields of two different climatic regions in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshonkulov, Ravshan; Poyda, Arne; Ingwersen, Joachim; Streck, Thilo

2017-04-01

Assessing the spatial variability of soil physical properties is crucial for agricultural land management. We determined the spatial variability within two agricultural fields in the regions of Kraichgau and Swabian Jura in Southwest Germany. We determined soil physical properties and recorded the temporal development of soil mineral nitrogen (N) and water content as well as that of plant variables (phenology, biomass, leaf area index (LAI), N content, green vegetation fraction (GVF). The work was conducted during the vegetation periods of 2015 and 2016 in winter wheat, and winter rapeseed in Kraichgau and winter barley and silage maize on Swabian Jura. Measurements were taken in three-weekly intervals. On each field, we identified three plots with reduced plant development using high-resolution (RapidEye) satellite images ("cold spots"). Measurements taken on these cold spots were compared to those from five established (long-term) reference plots representing the average field variability. The software EXPERT-N was used to simulate the soil crop system at both cold spots and reference plots. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify the most important parameters for the determination of spatial variability in crop growth dynamics.

Characterizing regional soil mineral composition using spectroscopyand geostatistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mulder, V.L.; de Bruin, S.; Weyermann, J.; Kokaly, Raymond F.; Schaepman, M.E.

2013-01-01

This work aims at improving the mapping of major mineral variability at regional scale using scale-dependent spatial variability observed in remote sensing data. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data and statistical methods were combined with laboratory-based mineral characterization of field samples to create maps of the distributions of clay, mica and carbonate minerals and their abundances. The Material Identification and Characterization Algorithm (MICA) was used to identify the spectrally-dominant minerals in field samples; these results were combined with ASTER data using multinomial logistic regression to map mineral distributions. X-ray diffraction (XRD)was used to quantify mineral composition in field samples. XRD results were combined with ASTER data using multiple linear regression to map mineral abundances. We testedwhether smoothing of the ASTER data to match the scale of variability of the target sample would improve model correlations. Smoothing was donewith Fixed Rank Kriging (FRK) to represent the mediumand long-range spatial variability in the ASTER data. Stronger correlations resulted using the smoothed data compared to results obtained with the original data. Highest model accuracies came from using both medium and long-range scaled ASTER data as input to the statistical models. High correlation coefficients were obtained for the abundances of calcite and mica (R2 = 0.71 and 0.70, respectively). Moderately-high correlation coefficients were found for smectite and kaolinite (R2 = 0.57 and 0.45, respectively). Maps of mineral distributions, obtained by relating ASTER data to MICA analysis of field samples, were found to characterize major soil mineral variability (overall accuracies for mica, smectite and kaolinite were 76%, 89% and 86% respectively). The results of this study suggest that the distributions of minerals and their abundances derived using FRK-smoothed ASTER data more closely match the spatial variability of soil and environmental properties at regional scale.

Identifying Factors Causing Variability in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Fluxes in a Polygonal Tundra Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, B.; Wainwright, H. M.; Vaughn, L. S.; Curtis, J. B.; Torn, M. S.; Dafflon, B.; Hubbard, S. S.

2017-12-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) flux variations in Arctic tundra environments are important to understand because of the vast amount of soil carbon stored in these regions and the potential of these regions to convert from a global carbon sink to a source under warmer conditions. Multiple factors potentially contribute to GHG flux variations observed in these environments, including snowmelt timing, growing season length, active layer thickness, water table variations, and temperature fluctuations. The objectives of this study are to investigate temporal variability in CO2 and CH4 fluxes at Barrow, AK over three successive growing seasons (2012-14) and to determine the factors influencing this variability using a novel entropy-based classification scheme. We analyzed soil, vegetation, and climate parameters as well as GHG fluxes at multiple locations within low-, flat- and high-centered polygons at Barrow, AK as part of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE) Arctic project. Entropy results indicate that different environmental factors govern variability in GHG fluxes under different spatiotemporal settings. In particular, flat-centered polygons are more likely to become significant sources of CO2 during warm and dry years as opposed to high-centered polygons that contribute considerably to CO2 emissions during cold and wet years. In contrast, the highest CH4 emissions were always associated with low-centered polygons. Temporal variability in CO2 fluxes was primarily associated with factors affecting soil temperature and/or vegetation dynamics during early and late season periods. Temporal variability in CH4 fluxes was primarily associated with changes in vegetation cover and its covariability with primary controls such as seasonal thaw—rather than direct response to changes in soil moisture. Overall, entropy results document which factors became important under different spatiotemporal settings, thus providing clues concerning the manner in which ecosystem properties may be altered regionally in a future climate.

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive characteristics or descriptors of thermal regimes in streams. The descriptors we provide herein can be applied across hydro-ecological regions to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. Evaluation of coherence and synchrony of different components of thermal regimes can facilitate identification of impacts of regional climate variability or local human or natural influences.

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Lake Challa (Kenya/Tanzania) sediments, a varved climate archive of environmental variability in equatorial East Africa of the last 25.000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, C.; Haug, G.; Plessen, B.; Kristen, I.; Verschuren, D.; Participants, C.

2008-12-01

Recently, an increasing number of climate records from low-latitude regions underscore the importance of tropical atmospheric processes in the global climate system. Nevertheless, the regional synchrony of temperature and humidity variations, as well as teleconnecting mechanisms between high and low latitudes are still poorly understood. The EuroCLIMATE project CHALLACEA aims to provide a continuous high- resolution multi-proxy record of temperature and moisture-balance variability in equatorial East Africa from the Last Glacial Maximum (25 ka BP) to the present. Lake Challa is a crater lake located about 40 km east of Mt. Kilimanjaro at an altitude of 880 m a.s.l. It is a freshwater lake whose water column is stratified during most of the year. It is fed by subsurface inflow which derives mainly from percolation of precipitation falling in the montane forest zone higher up the mountain. Within the lake form lacustrine deposits which predominantly consist of autochthonous components (carbonate, biogenic silica, organic matter). The present study focuses on microfacies analyses and isotope measurements. Fine laminations are preserved over wide parts of a 22 m long sediment profile. Microfacies analyses reveal that the light/dark couplets represent true calcite varves. The darker layers contain organic matter and endogenic calcite. Sediment trap studies show that these layers form during the warm season (Nov to Mar) when water temperatures are high and the lake is biological productive. The light layers consist predominantly of diatom frustules. They accumulate in the sediment trap between June and October. By counting and measuring the thickness of the varves on thin sections, we establish a varve record that currently covers the last 1500 years. Stable isotope analyses on bulk carbonates will complement this record and give further insights into the hydrological variability of the region and enhance our knowledge of climate change in the highly sensitive climate region of the Mt. Kilimanjaro area.

Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution.

PubMed

Potts, Richard; Faith, J Tyler

2015-10-01

Interaction of orbital insolation cycles defines a predictive model of alternating phases of high- and low-climate variability for tropical East Africa over the past 5 million years. This model, which is described in terms of climate variability stages, implies repeated increases in landscape/resource instability and intervening periods of stability in East Africa. It predicts eight prolonged (>192 kyr) eras of intensified habitat instability (high variability stages) in which hominin evolutionary innovations are likely to have occurred, potentially by variability selection. The prediction that repeated shifts toward high climate variability affected paleoenvironments and evolution is tested in three ways. In the first test, deep-sea records of northeast African terrigenous dust flux (Sites 721/722) and eastern Mediterranean sapropels (Site 967A) show increased and decreased variability in concert with predicted shifts in climate variability. These regional measurements of climate dynamics are complemented by stratigraphic observations in five basins with lengthy stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental records: the mid-Pleistocene Olorgesailie Basin, the Plio-Pleistocene Turkana and Olduvai Basins, and the Pliocene Tugen Hills sequence and Hadar Basin--all of which show that highly variable landscapes inhabited by hominin populations were indeed concentrated in predicted stages of prolonged high climate variability. Second, stringent null-model tests demonstrate a significant association of currently known first and last appearance datums (FADs and LADs) of the major hominin lineages, suites of technological behaviors, and dispersal events with the predicted intervals of prolonged high climate variability. Palynological study in the Nihewan Basin, China, provides a third test, which shows the occupation of highly diverse habitats in eastern Asia, consistent with the predicted increase in adaptability in dispersing Oldowan hominins. Integration of fossil, archeological, sedimentary, and paleolandscape evidence illustrates the potential influence of prolonged high variability on the origin and spread of critical adaptations and lineages in the evolution of Homo. The growing body of data concerning environmental dynamics supports the idea that the evolution of adaptability in response to climate and overall ecological instability represents a unifying theme in hominin evolutionary history. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

PubMed Central

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts. PMID:24927165

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Noon, Barry R.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981–2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040–2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, J.C.

The primary mode of North Atlantic track variability is identified using rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) on monthly fields of root-mean-squares of daily high-pass filtered (2-8-day periods) sea level pressures (SLP) for winters (December-February) 1900-92. It is examined in terms of its association with (1) monthly mean SLP fields, (2) regional low-frequency teleconnections, and (3) the seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. 32 refs., 9 figs.

An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Radley M.

Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even during El Nino events. Based on the results from Chapter One, the analysis is expanded in several ways in Chapter Two. To gain a more complete and statistically meaningful understanding of ENSO, a 25 year time period is used instead of a single event. To gain a fuller understanding of climate variability, additional patterns are analyzed. Finally analysis is conducted at the regional scales that are of interest to farmers and agricultural planners. Key findings are that GISS ModelE can reproduce: (1) the spatial pattern associated with two additional related modes, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); (2) rainfall patterns in Indonesia; and (3) dynamical features such as sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and wind in the study regions. When run in coupled mode, the same model reproduces similar modes spatially but with reduced variance and weak teleconnections. Since Chapter Two identified Western Indonesia as the region where GCMs hold the most promise for agricultural applications, in Chapter Three a finer spatial and temporal scale analysis of ENSO's effects is presented. Agricultural decision-making is also linked to ENSO's climate effects. Early rainy season precipitation and circulation, and same-season planting and harvesting dates, are shown to be sensitive to ENSO. The locus of ENSO convergence and rainfall anomalies is shown to be near the axis of rainy season establishment, defined as the 6--8 mm/day isohyet, an approximate threshold for irrigated rice cultivation. As the axis tracks south and east between October and January, so do ENSO anomalies. Circulation anomalies associated with ENSO are shown to be similar to those associated with rainfall anomalies, suggesting that long lead-time ENSO forecasts may allow more adaptation than 'wait and see' methods, with little loss of forecast skill. Additional findings include: (1) rice and corn yields are lower (higher) during dry (wet) trimesters and El Nino (La Nina) years; and (2) a statistically significant negative relationship exists between malaria cases and ENSO. The final chapter adds climate change to the climate variability story. Under high CO2, the model able to capture ENSO dynamics---an atmospheric model coupled to the Cane-Zebiak ocean model ('C4' here)---generates more El Nino-like mean conditions in the tropical Pacific. These changes produce a 4x larger increase in maximum precipitation with warming in C4 than an atmospheric model with a slab ocean (Q4), dramatically enhancing the Pacific Hadley and Walker circulations, and through positive feedbacks, increasing the global temperature. Near Nordeste warming alone (Q4) produces added rainfall, which in C4 is partially cancelled out by El Nino-like changes in the Walker Cell. Both Q4 and C4 produce small changes in Indonesia, although C4 generates large circulation and precipitation anomalies over the Western Indian Ocean. C4 changes in the midlatitudes produce a very strong Pacific North American pattern (PNA) response that dominates a small positive AO change associated with Q4. These PNA changes produce increased rainfall over the Southeastern United States (SEUS) in C4. AO and NAO-like variability are also found to increase with enhanced CO2. This thesis highlights how climate variability influences regional climate variability, with an emphasis on four regions: Nordeste, Brazil, Western Indonesia, the Southeastern United States (SEUS), and the Mediterranean. It links El Nino-driven delay in the onset of rainy season drivers in Western Indonesia to decision-making about when to plant the year's largest crop. In a coupled configuration, the GISS GCM produces strong El Nino-like changes with global warming. This result suggests that the impacts---climatological and agricultural---of climate change may ultimately exceed the impacts of current variability. Somewhat paradoxically, these results indicate that one of the central manifestations of climate change is likely to be changes in patterns of climate variability and their regional impacts.

Temporal variability of mass transport across Canary Islands Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero-Díaz, Ángeles; Rodríguez-Santana, Ángel; José Machín, Francisco; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio

2014-05-01

The equatorward flowing Canary Current (CC) is the main feature of the circulation in the Canary Islands region. The CC flow perturbation by the Canary Islands originate the Canary Eddy Corridor which is the major pathway for long lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic (Sangrà et al., 2009, DSR). Therefore the variability of the CC passing through the Canary Archipelago will have both local and regional importance. Past studies on the CC variability trough the Canary Islands point out a clearly seasonal variability (Fraile-Nuez et al, 2010 (JGR); Hernández-Guerra et al, 2002 (DSR)). However those studies where focused on the eastern islands channels missing the variability through the western island channels which are the main source of long lived eddies. In order to fill this gap from November 2012 until September 2013 we conducted trimonthly surveys crossing the whole islands channels using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). XBT and XCTD where launched along the cross channels transects. Additionally a closed box circling the Archipelago was performed on October 2013 as part of the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) using also XBT and XCTD. Dynamical variables where derived inferring salinity from S(T,p) analytical relationships for the region updated with new XCTD data. High resolution, vertical sections of temperature, potential density, geostrophic velocity and transport where obtained. Our preliminary results suggest that the CC suffer a noticeable acceleration in those islands channels where eddy shedding is more frequent. They also indicate a clearly seasonal variability of the flows passing the islands channels. With this regard we observed significant differences on the obtained seasonal variability with respect the cited past studies on the eastern islands channel (Lanzarote / Fuerteventura - Africa coast). This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092) and the European Union (FEDER).

Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph Observations of Variability in the RS Canum Venaticorum System V711 Tauri (HR 1099)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dempsey, Robert C.; Neff, James E.; Thorpe, Marjorie J.; Linsky, Jeffrey L.; Brown, Alexander; Cutispoto, Giuseppe; Rodono, Marcello

1996-01-01

Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) observations of the RS CVn-type binary V711 Tau (Kl IV+G5 IV) were obtained at several phases over two consecutive stellar orbital cycles in order to study ultraviolet emission-line profile and flux variability. Spectra cover the Mg II h and k lines, C IV doublet, and Si IV region, as well as the density-sensitive lines of C III] (1909 A) and Si III] (1892 A). IUE spectra, Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) data, and Ultraviolet, Blue, Visual (UBV) photometry were obtained contemporaneously with the GHRS data. Variable extended wings were detected in the Mg II lines. We discuss the Mg II line profile variability using various Gaussian emission profile models. No rotational modulation of the line profiles was observed, but there were several large flares. These flares produced enhanced emission in the extended line wings, radial velocity shifts, and asymmetries in some line profiles. Nearly continuous flaring for more than 24 hr, as indicated in the IUE data, represents the most energetic and long-lived chromospheric and transition region flare ever observed with a total energy much greater than 5 x 10(exp 35) ergs. The C III] to Si III] line ratio is used to estimate the plasma density during the flares.

Temporally variable environments maintain more beta-diversity in Mediterranean landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Beatriz; Ferrer, Miguel

2015-10-01

We examined the relationships between different environmental factors and the alpha and beta-diversity of terrestrial vertebrates (birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles) in a Mediterranean region at the landscape level. We investigated whether the mechanisms underlying alpha and beta-diversity patterns are influenced by energy availability, habitat heterogeneity and temporal variability and if the drivers of the diversity patterns differed between both components of diversity. We defined alpha-diversity as synonym of species richness whereas beta-diversity was measured as distinctiveness. We evaluated a total of 13 different predictors using generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) analysis. Habitat spatial heterogeneity increased alpha-diversity, but contrastingly, it did not significantly affect beta-diversity among sites. Disturbed landscapes may show higher habitat spatial variation and higher alpha-diversity due to the contribution of highly generalist species that are wide-distributed and do not differ in composition (beta-diversity) among different sites within the region. Contrastingly, higher beta-diversity levels were negatively related to more stable sites in terms of temporal environmental variation. This negative relationship between environmental stability and beta-diversity levels is explained in terms of species adaptation to the local environmental conditions. Our study highlights the importance of temporal environmental variability in maintaining beta-diversity patterns under highly variable environmental conditions.

Variability of methane fluxes over high latitude permafrost wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafimovich, Andrei; Hartmann, Jörg; Larmanou, Eric; Sachs, Torsten

2013-04-01

Atmospheric methane plays an important role in the global climate system. Due to significant amounts of organic material stored in the upper layers of high latitude permafrost wetlands and a strong Arctic warming trend, there is concern about potentially large methane emissions from Arctic and sub-Arctic areas. The quantification of methane fluxes and their variability from these regions therefore plays an important role in understanding the Arctic carbon cycle and changes in atmospheric methane concentrations. However, direct measurements of methane fluxes in permafrost regions are sparse, very localized, inhomogeneously distributed in space, and thus difficult to use for accurate model representation of regional to global methane contributions from the Arctic. We aim to contribute to reducing uncertainty and improve spatial coverage and spatial representativeness of flux estimates by using airborne eddy covariance measurements across large areas. The research aircraft POLAR 5 was equipped with a turbulence nose boom and a fast response methane analyzer and served as the platform for measurements of methane emissions. The measuring campaign was carried out from 28 June to 10 July 2012 across the entire North Slope of Alaska and the Mackenzie Delta in Canada. The supplemented simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model exploring the dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer were used to analyze high methane concentrations occasionally observed within the boundary layer with a distinct drop to background level above. Strong regional differences were detected over both investigated areas showing the non-uniform distribution of methane sources. In order to cover the whole turbulent spectrum and at the same time to resolve methane fluxes on a regional scale, different integration paths were analyzed and validated through spectral analysis. Methane emissions measured over the Mackenzie Delta were higher and generally more variable in space, especially in the outer Delta with known geogenic methane seepage. On the North Slope, methane fluxes were larger in the western part than in the central and eastern parts. The obtained results are essential for the advanced, scale dependent quantification of methane emissions. Our contribution will present an overview of the experiment as well as preliminary results from more than 52 flight hours over high latitude permafrost wetlands.

Characterizing Transitions Between Decadal States of the Tropical Pacific using State Space Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesh, N.; Cane, M. A.

2017-12-01

The complex coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the Tropical Pacific generates variability on timescales from intraseasonal to multidecadal. Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is among the key drivers of global climate, with effects on hydroclimate on several continents, marine ecosystems, and the rate of global mean surface temperature rise under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Predicting phase shifts in the PDV would therefore be highly useful. However, the small number of PDV phase shifts that have occurred in the observational record pose a substantial challenge to developing an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie decadal variability. In this study, we use a 100,000-year unforced simulation from an intermediate-complexity model of the Tropical Pacific region that has been shown to produce PDV comparable to that in the real world. We apply the Simplex Projection method to the NINO3 index from this model to reconstruct a shadow manifold that preserves the topology of the true attractor of this system. We find that the high- and low-variance phases of PDV emerge as a pair of regimes in a 3-dimensional state space, and that the transitions between decadal states lie in a highly predictable region of the attractor. We then use a random forest algorithm to develop a physical interpretation of the processes associated with these highly-predictable transitions. We find that transitions to low-variance states are most likely to occur approximately 2.5 years after an El Nino event, and that ocean-atmosphere variables in the southeastern Tropical Pacific play a crucial role in driving these transitions.

Regionalization of land-use impacts on streamflow using a network of paired catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa-Tocachi, Boris F.; Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

2016-09-01

Quantifying the impact of land use and cover (LUC) change on catchment hydrological response is essential for land-use planning and management. Yet hydrologists are often not able to present consistent and reliable evidence to support such decision-making. The issue tends to be twofold: a scarcity of relevant observations, and the difficulty of regionalizing any existing observations. This study explores the potential of a paired catchment monitoring network to provide statistically robust, regionalized predictions of LUC change impact in an environment of high hydrological variability. We test the importance of LUC variables to explain hydrological responses and to improve regionalized predictions using 24 catchments distributed along the Tropical Andes. For this, we calculate first 50 physical catchment properties, and then select a subset based on correlation analysis. The reduced set is subsequently used to regionalize a selection of hydrological indices using multiple linear regression. Contrary to earlier studies, we find that incorporating LUC variables in the regional model structures increases significantly regression performance and predictive capacity for 66% of the indices. For the runoff ratio, baseflow index, and slope of the flow duration curve, the mean absolute error reduces by 53% and the variance of the residuals by 79%, on average. We attribute the explanatory capacity of LUC in the regional model to the pairwise monitoring setup, which increases the contrast of the land-use signal in the data set. As such, it may be a useful strategy to optimize data collection to support watershed management practices and improve decision-making in data-scarce regions.

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

2018-06-01

Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

Variability of Massive Young Stellar Objects in Cygnus-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Nancy H.; Hora, J. L.; Smith, H. A.

2013-01-01

Young stellar objects (YSOs) are stars in the process of formation. Several recent investigations have shown a high rate of photometric variability in YSOs at near- and mid-infrared wavelengths. Theoretical models for the formation of massive stars (1-10 solar masses) remain highly idealized, and little is known about the mechanisms that produce the variability. An ongoing Spitzer Space Telescope program is studying massive star formation in the Cygnus-X region. In conjunction with the Spitzer observations, we have conducted a ground-based near-infrared observing program of the Cygnus-X DR21 field using PAIRITEL, the automated infrared telescope at Whipple Observatory. Using the Stetson index for variability, we identified variable objects and a number of variable YSOs in our time-series PAIRITEL data of DR21. We have searched for periodicity among our variable objects using the Lomb-Scargle algorithm, and identified periodic variable objects with an average period of 8.07 days. Characterization of these variable and periodic objects will help constrain models of star formation present. This work is supported in part by the NSF REU and DOD ASSURE programs under NSF grant no. 0754568 and by the Smithsonian Institution.

Regional variation of flow duration curves in the eastern United States: Process-based analyses of the interaction between climate and landscape properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouaib, Wafa; Caldwell, Peter V.; Alila, Younes

2018-04-01

This paper advances the physical understanding of the flow duration curve (FDC) regional variation. It provides a process-based analysis of the interaction between climate and landscape properties to explain disparities in FDC shapes. We used (i) long term measured flow and precipitation data over 73 catchments from the eastern US. (ii) We calibrated the Sacramento model (SAC-SMA) to simulate soil moisture and flow components FDCs. The catchments classification based on storm characteristics pointed to the effect of catchments landscape properties on the precipitation variability and consequently on the FDC shapes. The landscape properties effect was pronounce such that low value of the slope of FDC (SFDC)-hinting at limited flow variability-were present in regions of high precipitation variability. Whereas, in regions with low precipitation variability the SFDCs were of larger values. The topographic index distribution, at the catchment scale, indicated that saturation excess overland flow mitigated the flow variability under conditions of low elevations with large soil moisture storage capacity and high infiltration rates. The SFDCs increased due to the predominant subsurface stormflow in catchments at high elevations with limited soil moisture storage capacity and low infiltration rates. Our analyses also highlighted the major role of soil infiltration rates on the FDC despite the impact of the predominant runoff generation mechanism and catchment elevation. In conditions of slow infiltration rates in soils of large moisture storage capacity (at low elevations) and predominant saturation excess, the SFDCs were of larger values. On the other hand, the SFDCs decreased in catchments of prevalent subsurface stormflow and poorly drained soils of small soil moisture storage capacity. The analysis of the flow components FDCs demonstrated that the interflow contribution to the response was the higher in catchments with large value of slope of the FDC. The surface flow FDC was the most affected by the precipitation as it tracked the precipitation duration curve (PDC). In catchments with low SFDCs, this became less applicable as surface flow FDC diverged from PDC at the upper tail (> 40% of the flow percentile). The interflow and baseflow FDCs illustrated most the filtering effect on the precipitation. The process understanding we achieved in this study is key for flow simulation and assessment in addition to future works focusing on process-based FDC predictions.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

Sharpening method of satellite thermal image based on the geographical statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Pengcheng; Hu, Shixiong; Zhang, Haijun; Guo, Guangmeng

2016-04-01

To improve the effectiveness of thermal sharpening in mountainous regions, paying more attention to the laws of land surface energy balance, a thermal sharpening method based on the geographical statistical model (GSM) is proposed. Explanatory variables were selected from the processes of land surface energy budget and thermal infrared electromagnetic radiation transmission, then high spatial resolution (57 m) raster layers were generated for these variables through spatially simulating or using other raster data as proxies. Based on this, the local adaptation statistical relationship between brightness temperature (BT) and the explanatory variables, i.e., the GSM, was built at 1026-m resolution using the method of multivariate adaptive regression splines. Finally, the GSM was applied to the high-resolution (57-m) explanatory variables; thus, the high-resolution (57-m) BT image was obtained. This method produced a sharpening result with low error and good visual effect. The method can avoid the blind choice of explanatory variables and remove the dependence on synchronous imagery at visible and near-infrared bands. The influences of the explanatory variable combination, sampling method, and the residual error correction on sharpening results were analyzed deliberately, and their influence mechanisms are reported herein.

ITS all right mama: investigating the formation of chimeric sequences in the ITS2 region by DNA metabarcoding analyses of fungal mock communities of different complexities.

PubMed

Bjørnsgaard Aas, Anders; Davey, Marie Louise; Kauserud, Håvard

2017-07-01

The formation of chimeric sequences can create significant methodological bias in PCR-based DNA metabarcoding analyses. During mixed-template amplification of barcoding regions, chimera formation is frequent and well documented. However, profiling of fungal communities typically uses the more variable rDNA region ITS. Due to a larger research community, tools for chimera detection have been developed mainly for the 16S/18S markers. However, these tools are widely applied to the ITS region without verification of their performance. We examined the rate of chimera formation during amplification and 454 sequencing of the ITS2 region from fungal mock communities of different complexities. We evaluated the chimera detecting ability of two common chimera-checking algorithms: perseus and uchime. Large proportions of the chimeras reported were false positives. No false negatives were found in the data set. Verified chimeras accounted for only 0.2% of the total ITS2 reads, which is considerably less than what is typically reported in 16S and 18S metabarcoding analyses. Verified chimeric 'parent sequences' had significantly higher per cent identity to one another than to random members of the mock communities. Community complexity increased the rate of chimera formation. GC content was higher around the verified chimeric break points, potentially facilitating chimera formation through base pair mismatching in the neighbouring regions of high similarity in the chimeric region. We conclude that the hypervariable nature of the ITS region seems to buffer the rate of chimera formation in comparison with other, less variable barcoding regions, due to shorter regions of high sequence similarity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain–Fritsch Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high-resolution (1–10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at ...

Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.

Structure-based engineering to restore high affinity binding of an isoform-selective anti-TGFβ1 antibody

PubMed Central

Honey, Denise M.; Best, Annie; Qiu, Huawei

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Metelimumab (CAT192) is a human IgG4 monoclonal antibody developed as a TGFβ1-specific antagonist. It was tested in clinical trials for the treatment of scleroderma but later terminated due to lack of efficacy. Subsequent characterization of CAT192 indicated that its TGFβ1 binding affinity was reduced by ∼50-fold upon conversion from the parental single-chain variable fragment (scFv) to IgG4. We hypothesized this result was due to decreased conformational flexibility of the IgG that could be altered via engineering. Therefore, we designed insertion mutants in the elbow region and screened for binding and potency. Our results indicated that increasing the elbow region linker length in each chain successfully restored the isoform-specific and high affinity binding of CAT192 to TGFβ1. The crystal structure of the high binding affinity mutant displays large conformational rearrangements of the variable domains compared to the wild-type antigen-binding fragment (Fab) and the low binding affinity mutants. Insertion of two glycines in both the heavy and light chain elbow regions provided sufficient flexibility for the variable domains to extend further apart than the wild-type Fab, and allow the CDR3s to make additional interactions not seen in the wild-type Fab structure. These interactions coupled with the dramatic conformational changes provide a possible explanation of how the scFv and elbow-engineered Fabs bind TGFβ1 with high affinity. This study demonstrates the benefits of re-examining both structure and function when converting scFv to IgG molecules, and highlights the potential of structure-based engineering to produce fully functional antibodies. PMID:29333938

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Particulate and Dissolved Organic Matter in the Mississippi River Bight From Optical Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DSa, E. J.; Miller, R. L.; DelCastillo, C.

2003-01-01

The Mississippi River Bight is a highly dynamic region influenced by the seasonally variable outflow from the Mississippi River. In an effort to characterize the distribution of particulate and dissolved organic matter in the region, we conducted a two-year field program in the spring and fall (high and low flow river discharge) of 2000 and 2002. We collected a comprehensive set of bio-optical measurements consisting of vertical profiles (absorption, scattering, chlorophyll fluorescence and radiometry) and discrete measurements (pigment concentrations, particulate and CDOM absorption) that enabled us to obtain better insight into the seasonal and spatial variability of some important biogeochemical parameters. Our field measurements generally showed higher phytoplankton clorophyll concentrations in the plume waters (associated with lower surface salinities) and confirmed the high biological activity abserved in other studies. The seasonal flow of river discharge and advective currents due to wind forcing exerted a strong influence on the biological and optical properties of the region. An examination of absorption at 440 nm by the algal and non-algal fraction of the particulate pool and of CDOM revealed that at nearshore stations, contributions by the non-algal particles were high (about 40%) and decresed with increasing salinities. While CDOM absorption exhibited conservative mixing, its relative contribution to the total absorption was variable. Surface waters at most stations had lower salinities that generalliy increased with dept. Particulate matter and CDOM also decreased with depth as evidenced by absorption and scattering measurements. Good correlations in surface waters between concentrations of particulate and dissolved matter, the inherent optical properties of absorption and ackscattering and remote sensing reflectance values has allowed the development of robust empirical algorithms for phytoplankton chlorophyll and CDOM absorption.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Intercomparison Between in situ and AVHRR Polar Pathfinder-Derived Surface Albedo over Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroeve, Julienne C.; Box, Jason E.; Fowler, Charles; Haran, Terence; Key, Jeffery

2001-01-01

The Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder Data (APP) provides the first long time series of consistent, calibrated surface albedo and surface temperature data for the polar regions. Validations of these products have consisted of individual studies that analyzed algorithm performance for limited regions and or time periods. This paper reports on comparisons made between the APP-derived surface albedo and that measured at fourteen automatic weather stations (AWS) around the Greenland ice sheet from January 1997 to August 1998. Results show that satellite-derived surface albedo values are on average 10% less than those measured by the AWS stations. However, the station measurements tend to be biased high by about 4% and thus the differences in absolute albedo may be less (e.g. 6%). In regions of the ice sheet where the albedo variability is small, such as the dry snow facies, the APP albedo uncertainty exceeds the natural variability. Further work is needed to improve the absolute accuracy of the APP-derived surface albedo. Even so, the data provide temporally and spatially consistent estimates of the Greenland ice sheet albedo.

The antigenic evolution of influenza: drift or thrift?

PubMed Central

Wikramaratna, Paul S.; Sandeman, Michi; Recker, Mario; Gupta, Sunetra

2013-01-01

It is commonly assumed that antibody responses against the influenza virus are polarized in the following manner: strong antibody responses are directed at highly variable antigenic epitopes, which consequently undergo ‘antigenic drift’, while weak antibody responses develop against conserved epitopes. As the highly variable epitopes are in a constant state of flux, current antibody-based vaccine strategies are focused on the conserved epitopes in the expectation that they will provide some level of clinical protection after appropriate boosting. Here, we use a theoretical model to suggest the existence of epitopes of low variability, which elicit a high degree of both clinical and transmission-blocking immunity. We show that several epidemiological features of influenza and its serological and molecular profiles are consistent with this model of ‘antigenic thrift’, and that identifying the protective epitopes of low variability predicted by this model could offer a more viable alternative to regularly update the influenza vaccine than exploiting responses to weakly immunogenic conserved regions. PMID:23382423

Influence of Land Cover Heterogeneity, Land-Use Change and Management on the Regional Carbon Cycle in the Upper Midwest USA as Evaluated by High-Density Observations and a Dynamic Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Bolstad, P. V.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Davis, K. J.

2005-12-01

The interplay between land use change, forest management and land cover variability complicates the ability to characterize regional scale (10-1000 km) exchange of carbon dioxide between the land surface and atmosphere in heterogeneous landscapes. An attempt was made to observe and model these factors and their influence on the regional carbon cycle across the upper Midwest USA. A high density of eddy-covariance carbon flux, micrometeorology, carbon dioxide mixing ratio, stand-scale biometry and canopy component flux observations have been occurring in this area as part of the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study. Observations limited to sampling only dominant stands and coarse-resolution biogeochemical models limited to biome-scale parameterization neither accurately capture the variability of carbon fluxes measured by the network of eddy covariance towers nor match the regional-scale carbon flux inferred from very tall tower eddy covariance measurements and multi-site upscaling. Analysis of plot level biometric data, U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis data and high-resolution land cover data around the tall tower revealed significant variations in vegetation type, stand age, canopy stocking and structure. Wetlands, clearcuts and recent natural disturbances occur in characteristic small non-uniformly distributed patches that aggregate to form more than 30% of the landscape. The Ecosystem Demography model, a dynamic ecosystem model that incorporates vegetation heterogeneity, canopy structure, stand age, disturbance, land use change and forest management, was parameterized with regional biometric data and meteorology, historical records of land management and high-resolution satellite land cover maps. The model will be used to examine the significance of past land use change, natural disturbance history and current forest management in explaining landscape structure and regional carbon fluxes observed in the region today.

GANP regulates recruitment of AID to immunoglobulin variable regions by modulating transcription and nucleosome occupancy

PubMed Central

Singh, Shailendra Kumar; Maeda, Kazuhiko; Eid, Mohammed Mansour Abbas; Almofty, Sarah Ameen; Ono, Masaya; Pham, Phuong; Goodman, Myron F.; Sakaguchi, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Somatic hypermutation in B cells is initiated by activation-induced cytidine deaminase-catalyzed C→U deamination at immunoglobulin variable regions. Here we investigate the role of the germinal centre-associated nuclear protein (GANP) in enhancing the access of activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID) to immunoglobulin variable regions. We show that the nuclear export factor GANP is involved in chromatin modification at rearranged immunoglobulin variable loci, and its activity requires a histone acetyltransferase domain. GANP interacts with the transcription stalling protein Spt5 and facilitates RNA Pol-II recruitment to immunoglobulin variable regions. Germinal centre B cells from ganp-transgenic mice showed a higher AID occupancy at the immunoglobulin variable region, whereas B cells from conditional ganp-knockout mice exhibit a lower AID accessibility. These findings suggest that GANP-mediated chromatin modification promotes transcription complex recruitment and positioning at immunoglobulin variable loci to favour AID targeting. PMID:23652018

A multi-scale comparison of trait linkages to environmental and spatial variables in fish communities across a large freshwater lake.

PubMed

Strecker, Angela L; Casselman, John M; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jackson, Donald A; Ridgway, Mark S; Abrams, Peter A; Shuter, Brian J

2011-07-01

Species present in communities are affected by the prevailing environmental conditions, and the traits that these species display may be sensitive indicators of community responses to environmental change. However, interpretation of community responses may be confounded by environmental variation at different spatial scales. Using a hierarchical approach, we assessed the spatial and temporal variation of traits in coastal fish communities in Lake Huron over a 5-year time period (2001-2005) in response to biotic and abiotic environmental factors. The association of environmental and spatial variables with trophic, life-history, and thermal traits at two spatial scales (regional basin-scale, local site-scale) was quantified using multivariate statistics and variation partitioning. We defined these two scales (regional, local) on which to measure variation and then applied this measurement framework identically in all 5 study years. With this framework, we found that there was no change in the spatial scales of fish community traits over the course of the study, although there were small inter-annual shifts in the importance of regional basin- and local site-scale variables in determining community trait composition (e.g., life-history, trophic, and thermal). The overriding effects of regional-scale variables may be related to inter-annual variation in average summer temperature. Additionally, drivers of fish community traits were highly variable among study years, with some years dominated by environmental variation and others dominated by spatially structured variation. The influence of spatial factors on trait composition was dynamic, which suggests that spatial patterns in fish communities over large landscapes are transient. Air temperature and vegetation were significant variables in most years, underscoring the importance of future climate change and shoreline development as drivers of fish community structure. Overall, a trait-based hierarchical framework may be a useful conservation tool, as it highlights the multi-scaled interactive effect of variables over a large landscape.

Mind the gap! The mitochondrial control region and its power as a phylogenetic marker in echinoids.

PubMed

Bronstein, Omri; Kroh, Andreas; Haring, Elisabeth

2018-05-30

In Metazoa, mitochondrial markers are the most commonly used targets for inferring species-level molecular phylogenies due to their extremely low rate of recombination, maternal inheritance, ease of use and fast substitution rate in comparison to nuclear DNA. The mitochondrial control region (CR) is the main non-coding area of the mitochondrial genome and contains the mitochondrial origin of replication and transcription. While sequences of the cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (COI) and 16S rRNA genes are the prime mitochondrial markers in phylogenetic studies, the highly variable CR is typically ignored and not targeted in such analyses. However, the higher substitution rate of the CR can be harnessed to infer the phylogeny of closely related species, and the use of a non-coding region alleviates biases resulting from both directional and purifying selection. Additionally, complete mitochondrial genome assemblies utilizing next generation sequencing (NGS) data often show exceptionally low coverage at specific regions, including the CR. This can only be resolved by targeted sequencing of this region. Here we provide novel sequence data for the echinoid mitochondrial control region in over 40 species across the echinoid phylogenetic tree. We demonstrate the advantages of directly targeting the CR and adjacent tRNAs to facilitate complementing low coverage NGS data from complete mitochondrial genome assemblies. Finally, we test the performance of this region as a phylogenetic marker both in the lab and in phylogenetic analyses, and demonstrate its superior performance over the other available mitochondrial markers in echinoids. Our target region of the mitochondrial CR (1) facilitates the first thorough investigation of this region across a wide range of echinoid taxa, (2) provides a tool for complementing missing data in NGS experiments, and (3) identifies the CR as a powerful, novel marker for phylogenetic inference in echinoids due to its high variability, lack of selection, and high compatibility across the entire class, outperforming conventional mitochondrial markers.

Intraregional differences of perioperative management strategy for lumbar disc herniation: is the Devil really in the details?

PubMed

Zoia, Cesare; Bongetta, Daniele; Poli, Jacopo C; Verlotta, Mariarosaria; Pugliese, Raffaelino; Gaetani, Paolo

2017-01-01

This study intends to evaluate whether regional common habits or differences in case-volume between surgeons are significative variables in the perioperative management of patients undergoing surgery for lumbar disc herniation. An e-mail survey was sent to all neurosurgeons working in Lombardy, Italy's most populated region. The survey consisted of 17 questions about the perioperative management of lumbar disc herniation. Forty-seven percent (47%) out of 206 Lombard neurosurgeons answered the survey. Although in some respects there is clear evidence in current literature on which is the best practice to adopt for an optimal management strategy, we noticed substantial differences between respondents, not only between hospitals but also between surgeons from the same hospital. Still, no differences were evident in a high vs low case-volume comparison. We identified no regional clusterization as for practical principles in the perioperative management of lumbar disc herniation and neither was case-volume a significative variable. Other causes may be relevant in the variability between the perioperative management and the outcomes achieved by different specialists.

Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

2018-02-01

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.

Highly conserved intragenic HSV-2 sequences: Results from next-generation sequencing of HSV-2 UL and US regions from genital swabs collected from 3 continents.

PubMed

Johnston, Christine; Magaret, Amalia; Roychoudhury, Pavitra; Greninger, Alexander L; Cheng, Anqi; Diem, Kurt; Fitzgibbon, Matthew P; Huang, Meei-Li; Selke, Stacy; Lingappa, Jairam R; Celum, Connie; Jerome, Keith R; Wald, Anna; Koelle, David M

2017-10-01

Understanding the variability in circulating herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) genomic sequences is critical to the development of HSV-2 vaccines. Genital lesion swabs containing ≥ 10 7 log 10 copies HSV DNA collected from Africa, the USA, and South America underwent next-generation sequencing, followed by K-mer based filtering and de novo genomic assembly. Sites of heterogeneity within coding regions in unique long and unique short (U L _U S ) regions were identified. Phylogenetic trees were created using maximum likelihood reconstruction. Among 46 samples from 38 persons, 1468 intragenic base-pair substitutions were identified. The maximum nucleotide distance between strains for concatenated U L_ U S segments was 0.4%. Phylogeny did not reveal geographic clustering. The most variable proteins had non-synonymous mutations in < 3% of amino acids. Unenriched HSV-2 DNA can undergo next-generation sequencing to identify intragenic variability. The use of clinical swabs for sequencing expands the information that can be gathered directly from these specimens. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NGA-West2 equations for predicting vertical-component PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA from shallow crustal earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jonathan P.; Boore, David M.; Seyhan, Emel; Atkinson, Gail M.

2016-01-01

We present ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for computing natural log means and standard deviations of vertical-component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. The functions are similar to those for our horizontal GMPEs. We derive equations for the primary M- and distance-dependence of peak acceleration, peak velocity, and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral accelerations at oscillator periods between 0.01–10 s. We observe pronounced M-dependent geometric spreading and region-dependent anelastic attenuation for high-frequency IMs. We do not observe significant region-dependence in site amplification. Aleatory uncertainty is found to decrease with increasing magnitude; within-event variability is independent of distance. Compared to our horizontal-component GMPEs, attenuation rates are broadly comparable (somewhat slower geometric spreading, faster apparent anelastic attenuation), VS30-scaling is reduced, nonlinear site response is much weaker, within-event variability is comparable, and between-event variability is greater.

Overview of Key Results from SDO Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, Tom; Eparvier, Frank; Jones, Andrew; Mason, James; Didkovsky, Leonid; Chamberlin, Phil

2016-10-01

The SDO Extreme ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) includes several channels to observe the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiance from 1 to 106 nm. These channels include the Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS) A, B, and P channels from the University of Colorado (CU) and the EUV SpectroPhometer (ESP) channels from the University of Southern California (USC). The solar EUV spectrum is rich in many different emission lines from the corona, transition region, and chromosphere. The EVE full-disk irradiance spectra are important for studying the solar impacts in Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere and are useful for space weather operations. In addition, the EVE observations, with its high spectral resolution of 0.1 nm and in collaboration with AIA solar EUV images, have proven valuable for studying active region evolution and explosive energy release during flares and coronal eruptions. These SDO measurements have revealed interesting results such as understanding the flare variability over all wavelengths, discovering and classifying different flare phases, using coronal dimming measurements to predict CME properties of mass and velocity, and exploring the role of nano-flares in continual heating of active regions.

Analyzing and leveraging self-similarity for variable resolution atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Variable resolution modeling techniques are rapidly becoming a popular strategy for achieving high resolution in a global atmospheric models without the computational cost of global high resolution. However, recent studies have demonstrated a variety of resolution-dependent, and seemingly artificial, features. We argue that the scaling properties of the atmosphere are key to understanding how the statistics of an atmospheric model should change with resolution. We provide two such examples. In the first example we show that the scaling properties of the cloud number distribution define how the ratio of resolved to unresolved clouds should increase with resolution. We show that the loss of resolved clouds, in the high resolution region of variable resolution simulations, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) is an artifact of the model's treatment of condensed water (this artifact is significantly reduced in CAM5). In the second example we show that the scaling properties of the horizontal velocity field, combined with the incompressibility assumption, necessarily result in an intensification of vertical mass flux as resolution increases. We show that such an increase is present in a wide variety of models, including CAM and the regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES intercomparision. We present theoretical arguments linking this increase to the intensification of precipitation with increasing resolution.

Paleoecology and high-resolution paleohydrology of a kettle peatland in upper Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Gray, Catherine E. D.

2004-01-01

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.

A multiple-alignment based primer design algorithm for genetically highly variable DNA targets

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Primer design for highly variable DNA sequences is difficult, and experimental success requires attention to many interacting constraints. The advent of next-generation sequencing methods allows the investigation of rare variants otherwise hidden deep in large populations, but requires attention to population diversity and primer localization in relatively conserved regions, in addition to recognized constraints typically considered in primer design. Results Design constraints include degenerate sites to maximize population coverage, matching of melting temperatures, optimizing de novo sequence length, finding optimal bio-barcodes to allow efficient downstream analyses, and minimizing risk of dimerization. To facilitate primer design addressing these and other constraints, we created a novel computer program (PrimerDesign) that automates this complex procedure. We show its powers and limitations and give examples of successful designs for the analysis of HIV-1 populations. Conclusions PrimerDesign is useful for researchers who want to design DNA primers and probes for analyzing highly variable DNA populations. It can be used to design primers for PCR, RT-PCR, Sanger sequencing, next-generation sequencing, and other experimental protocols targeting highly variable DNA samples. PMID:23965160

Top soil radioactivity assessment in a high natural radiation background area: the case of Vinaninkarena, Antsirabe-Madagascar.

PubMed

Rabesiranana, Naivo; Rasolonirina, Martin; Terina, Franck; Solonjara, Asivelo F; Andriambololona, Raoelina

2008-11-01

The village of Vinaninkarena, Antsirabe, Madagascar (47 degrees 02'40''E, 19 degrees 57'17''S) is located in a high natural radioactivity area. In order to evaluate the natural radionuclide content in soil, sampling was done on-site by the transect method (85 soil samples) and off-site through transects across and beyond the region (up to a range of 100 km), to determine the natural radioactivity variation within vs. outside the region, and to detect significant differences, taking into account spatial variability.

Regional and social differences concerning overweight, participation in health check-ups and vaccination. Analysis of data from a whole birth cohort of 6-year old children in a prosperous German city

PubMed Central

Koller, Daniela; Mielck, Andreas

2009-01-01

Background Studies on health inequalities still focus mostly on adults. Research about social disparities and health in children is slowly increasing, also in Germany, but these studies are mostly restricted to individual social variables derived from the parents to determine social class. This paper analyses the data of the medical check-up prior to school enrolment to determine differences concerning overweight, participation in health check-ups and immunization; it includes individual social variables but also regional variables describing the social environment of the children. Methods The dataset includes 9,353 children who started school in 2004 in Munich, Germany. Three dependent variables are included (i.e. overweight, health check-ups, vaccinations). The individual level social variables are: children's sex, mother tongue of the parents, Kindergarten visit. On the small scale school district level, two regional social variables could be included as well, i.e. percentage of single-parent households, percentage of households with low educational level. Associations are assessed by cross tables and regression analyses. The regional level variables are included by multilevel analyses. Results The analyses indicate that there is a large variation between the school districts concerning the three dependent variables, and that there is no district with very 'problematic values' for all three of them (i.e. high percentage of overweight, low levels of health check-ups and vaccinations). Throughout the bivariate and multivariate analyses, the mother tongue of the children's parents shows the most pronounced association with these dependent variables; i.e. children growing up in non-German-speaking families tend to be more overweight and don't visit preventive check-ups as often as children of German-speaking parents. An opposite association can be seen concerning vaccinations. Regional level influences are present as well, but they are rather small when the individual level social variables are controlled for. Conclusion The dataset of the medical check-up prior to school enrolment offers a great opportunity for public health research, as it comprises a whole age cohort. The number and scope of variables is quite limited, though. On one hand, it includes only few variables on health or health related risks. On the other, it would be important to have more information from the region where the children live, e.g. the availability of community and health care services for parents and children, social networks of families with children, areas where children can play outside, traffic noise and air pollution. Despite these shortcomings, the need for specific interventions can already be derived from the data analyzed here, e.g. programs to reduce overweight in children should focus on parents with a mother tongue other than German. PMID:19183444

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

Optical Polarization and Spectral Variability in the M87 Jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlman, Eric S.; Adams, Steven C.; Cara, Mihai; Bourque, Matthew; Harris, D. E.; Madrid, Juan P.; Simons, Raymond C.; Clausen-Brown, Eric; Cheung, C. C.; Stawarz, Lukasz;

Wind, Circulation, and Topographic Effects on Alongshore Phytoplankton Variability in the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, Jerome; Edwards, Christopher A.; Moore, Andrew M.

2018-04-01

A physical-biogeochemical model is used to produce a retrospective analysis at 3-km resolution of alongshore phytoplankton variability in the California Current during 1988-2010. The simulation benefits from downscaling a regional circulation reanalysis, which provides improved physical ocean state estimates in the high-resolution domain. The emerging pattern is one of local upwelling intensification in response to increased alongshore wind stress in the lee of capes, modulated by alongshore meanders in the geostrophic circulation. While stronger upwelling occurs near most major topographic features, substantial increases in phytoplankton biomass only ensue where local circulation patterns are conducive to on-shelf retention of upwelled nutrients. Locations of peak nutrient delivery and chlorophyll accumulation also exhibit interannual variability and trends noticeably larger than the surrounding shelf regions, thereby suggesting that long-term planktonic ecosystem response in the California Current exhibits a significant local scale (O(100 km)) alongshore component.

The occurrence of non-pulsating stars in the γ Dor and δ Sct pulsation instability regions: Results from Kepler quarter 14–17 data

DOE PAGES

Guzik, J. A.; Bradley, P. A.; Jackiewicz, J.; ...

2015-04-21

In this study, the high precision long time-series photometry of the NASA Kepler spacecraft provides an excellent means to discover and characterize variability in main-sequence stars, and to make progress in interpreting the pulsations to derive stellar interior structure and test stellar models. For stars of spectral types A–F, the Kepler data revealed a number of surprises, such as more hybrid pulsating Sct and Dor pulsators than expected, pulsators lying outside of the instability regions predicted by theory, and stars that were expected to pulsate, but showed no variability. In our 2013 Astronomical Review article, we discussed the statistics ofmore » variability for 633 faint (Kepler magnitude 14–16) spectral type A–F stars observed by Kepler during Quarters 6–13 (June 2010–June 2012).« less

Temporal variability of marine debris deposition at Tern Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

PubMed

Agustin, Alyssa E; Merrifield, Mark A; Potemra, James T; Morishige, Carey

2015-12-15

A twenty-two year record of marine debris collected on Tern Island is used to characterize the temporal variability of debris deposition at a coral atoll in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Debris deposition tends to be episodic, without a significant relationship to local forcing processes associated with winds, sea level, waves, and proximity to the Subtropical Convergence Zone. The General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment is used to estimate likely debris pathways for Tern Island. The majority of modeled arrivals come from the northeast following prevailing trade winds and surface currents, with trajectories indicating the importance of the convergence zone, or garbage patch, in the North Pacific High region. Although debris deposition does not generally exhibit a significant seasonal cycle, some debris types contain considerable 3 cycle/yr variability that is coherent with wind and surface pressure over a broad region north of Tern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The occurrence of non-pulsating stars in the γ Dor and δ Sct pulsation instability regions: Results from Kepler quarter 14–17 data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guzik, J. A.; Bradley, P. A.; Jackiewicz, J.

In this study, the high precision long time-series photometry of the NASA Kepler spacecraft provides an excellent means to discover and characterize variability in main-sequence stars, and to make progress in interpreting the pulsations to derive stellar interior structure and test stellar models. For stars of spectral types A–F, the Kepler data revealed a number of surprises, such as more hybrid pulsating Sct and Dor pulsators than expected, pulsators lying outside of the instability regions predicted by theory, and stars that were expected to pulsate, but showed no variability. In our 2013 Astronomical Review article, we discussed the statistics ofmore » variability for 633 faint (Kepler magnitude 14–16) spectral type A–F stars observed by Kepler during Quarters 6–13 (June 2010–June 2012).« less

Genetic characterization of Colombian Bahman cattle using microsatellites markers.

PubMed

Gómez, Y M; Fernandez, M; Rivera, D; Gómez, G; Bernal, J E

2013-07-01

Genetic structure and diversity of 3789 animals of the Brahman breed from 23 Colombian regions were assessed. Considering the Brahman Zebu cattle as a single population, the multilocus test based on the HW equilibrium, shows significant differences (P < 0.001). Genetic characterization made on the cattle population allowed to examine the genetic variability, calculating a H(o) = 0.6621. Brahman population in Colombia was a small subdivision within populations (F(it) = 0.045), a geographic subdivision almost non-existent or low differentiation (F(st) = 0.003) and the F(is) calculated (0.042) indicates no detriment to the variability in the population, despite the narrow mating takes place or there is a force that causes the variability is sustained without inbreeding actually affect the cattle population. The outcomes of multivariate analyses, Bayesian inferences and interindividual genetic distances suggested that there is no genetic sub-structure in the population, because of the high rate of animal migration among regions.

Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

PubMed Central

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Gute, David M.; Sack, R. Bradley; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions. PMID:24019441

Analysis of Biomass Feedstock Availability and Variability for the Peace River Region of Alberta, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, Jamie; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Bi, X.T.

2009-11-01

Biorefineries or other biomass-dependent facilities require a predictable, dependable feedstock supplied over many years to justify capital investments. Determining inter-year variability in biomass availability is essential to quantifying the feedstock supply risk. Using a geographic information system (GIS) and historic crop yield data, average production was estimated for 10 sites in the Peace River region of Alberta, Canada. Four high-yielding potential sites were investigated for variability over a 20 year time-frame (1980 2000). The range of availability was large, from double the average in maximum years to nothing in minimum years. Biomass availability is a function of grain yield, themore » biomass to grain ratio, the cropping frequency, and residue retention rate to ensure future crop productivity. Storage strategies must be implemented and alternate feedstock sources identified to supply biomass processing facilities in low-yield years.« less

ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, M.; Fletcher, M.-S.; Holz, A.; Nyman, P.

2016-10-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management.

Relationship between Climate Variability, Wildfire Risk, and Wildfire Occurrence in Wildland-Urban Interface of the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Jia, S.; Nghiem, S. V.

2017-12-01

As housing units in or near wildlands have grown, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) contain at present approximately one-third of all housing in the contiguous US. Wildfires are a part of the natural cycle in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) but the increasing trend of WUI has made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. The expansion of WUI has elevated wildfire risks by increasing the chance of human caused ignitions and past fire suppression in the area. Previous studies on climate variability have shown that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts and has suffered from severe wildfires in the recent decade. Therefore, assessing the increased vulnerability to the wildfire in WUI is crucial for proactive adaptation under climate change. Our previous study has shown that a strong correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature was found during March-June in the SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry spring conditions, combined with suppression of winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risk throughout the summer and fall. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the connections between climate variability and wildfire danger characteristics. This study aims to identify climate variability using multiple climate indices such as NAO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation closely related with droughts in the SWUS region. Correlation between the variability and fire frequency and severity in WUI were examined. Also, we investigated climate variability and its relationship on local wildfire potential using both Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been used to assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively. We examined the long-term variability of the fire potential indices and relationships between the indices and historical occurrence in WUI using multi-decadal reanalysis data sets. Following our analysis, we investigated joint impacts of multiple climate indices on droughts and human activities in the WUI for regional wildfire potential.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

Protein consensus-based surface engineering (ProCoS): a computer-assisted method for directed protein evolution.

PubMed

Shivange, Amol V; Hoeffken, Hans Wolfgang; Haefner, Stefan; Schwaneberg, Ulrich

2016-12-01

Protein consensus-based surface engineering (ProCoS) is a simple and efficient method for directed protein evolution combining computational analysis and molecular biology tools to engineer protein surfaces. ProCoS is based on the hypothesis that conserved residues originated from a common ancestor and that these residues are crucial for the function of a protein, whereas highly variable regions (situated on the surface of a protein) can be targeted for surface engineering to maximize performance. ProCoS comprises four main steps: ( i ) identification of conserved and highly variable regions; ( ii ) protein sequence design by substituting residues in the highly variable regions, and gene synthesis; ( iii ) in vitro DNA recombination of synthetic genes; and ( iv ) screening for active variants. ProCoS is a simple method for surface mutagenesis in which multiple sequence alignment is used for selection of surface residues based on a structural model. To demonstrate the technique's utility for directed evolution, the surface of a phytase enzyme from Yersinia mollaretii (Ymphytase) was subjected to ProCoS. Screening just 1050 clones from ProCoS engineering-guided mutant libraries yielded an enzyme with 34 amino acid substitutions. The surface-engineered Ymphytase exhibited 3.8-fold higher pH stability (at pH 2.8 for 3 h) and retained 40% of the enzyme's specific activity (400 U/mg) compared with the wild-type Ymphytase. The pH stability might be attributed to a significantly increased (20 percentage points; from 9% to 29%) number of negatively charged amino acids on the surface of the engineered phytase.

IG and TR single chain fragment variable (scFv) sequence analysis: a new advanced functionality of IMGT/V-QUEST and IMGT/HighV-QUEST.

PubMed

Giudicelli, Véronique; Duroux, Patrice; Kossida, Sofia; Lefranc, Marie-Paule

2017-06-26

IMGT®, the international ImMunoGeneTics information system® ( http://www.imgt.org ), was created in 1989 in Montpellier, France (CNRS and Montpellier University) to manage the huge and complex diversity of the antigen receptors, and is at the origin of immunoinformatics, a science at the interface between immunogenetics and bioinformatics. Immunoglobulins (IG) or antibodies and T cell receptors (TR) are managed and described in the IMGT® databases and tools at the level of receptor, chain and domain. The analysis of the IG and TR variable (V) domain rearranged nucleotide sequences is performed by IMGT/V-QUEST (online since 1997, 50 sequences per batch) and, for next generation sequencing (NGS), by IMGT/HighV-QUEST, the high throughput version of IMGT/V-QUEST (portal begun in 2010, 500,000 sequences per batch). In vitro combinatorial libraries of engineered antibody single chain Fragment variable (scFv) which mimic the in vivo natural diversity of the immune adaptive responses are extensively screened for the discovery of novel antigen binding specificities. However the analysis of NGS full length scFv (~850 bp) represents a challenge as they contain two V domains connected by a linker and there is no tool for the analysis of two V domains in a single chain. The functionality "Analyis of single chain Fragment variable (scFv)" has been implemented in IMGT/V-QUEST and, for NGS, in IMGT/HighV-QUEST for the analysis of the two V domains of IG and TR scFv. It proceeds in five steps: search for a first closest V-REGION, full characterization of the first V-(D)-J-REGION, then search for a second V-REGION and full characterization of the second V-(D)-J-REGION, and finally linker delimitation. For each sequence or NGS read, positions of the 5'V-DOMAIN, linker and 3'V-DOMAIN in the scFv are provided in the 'V-orientated' sense. Each V-DOMAIN is fully characterized (gene identification, sequence description, junction analysis, characterization of mutations and amino changes). The functionality is generic and can analyse any IG or TR single chain nucleotide sequence containing two V domains, provided that the corresponding species IMGT reference directory is available. The "Analysis of single chain Fragment variable (scFv)" implemented in IMGT/V-QUEST and, for NGS, in IMGT/HighV-QUEST provides the identification and full characterization of the two V domains of full-length scFv (~850 bp) nucleotide sequences from combinatorial libraries. The analysis can also be performed on concatenated paired chains of expressed antigen receptor IG or TR repertoires.

Quantifying Spatial and Seasonal Variability in Atmospheric Ammonia with In Situ and Space-Based Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinder, Robert W.; Walker, John T.; Bash, Jesse O.; Cady-Pereira, Karen E.; Henze, Daven K.; Luo, Mingzhao; Osterman, Gregory B.; Shepard, Mark W.

2011-01-01

Ammonia plays an important role in many biogeochemical processes, yet atmospheric mixing ratios are not well known. Recently, methods have been developed for retrieving NH3 from space-based observations, but they have not been compared to in situ measurements. We have conducted a field campaign combining co-located surface measurements and satellite special observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Our study includes 25 surface monitoring sites spanning 350 km across eastern North Carolina, a region with large seasonal and spatial variability in NH3. From the TES spectra, we retrieve a NH3 representative volume mixing ratio (RVMR), and we restrict our analysis to times when the region of the atmosphere observed by TES is representative of the surface measurement. We find that the TES NH3 RVMR qualitatively captures the seasonal and spatial variability found in eastern North Carolina. Both surface measurements and TES NH3 show a strong correspondence with the number of livestock facilities within 10 km of the observation. Furthermore, we find that TES H3 RVMR captures the month-to-month variability present in the surface observations. The high correspondence with in situ measurements and vast spatial coverage make TES NH3 RVMR a valuable tool for understanding regional and global NH3 fluxes.

Determining the Effect of the Lunar Nodal Cycle on Tidal Mixing and North Pacific Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, D. J.; Schmittner, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Norton, N. J.; Müller, M.

2016-02-01

Oscillations in the moon's orbit around the earth modulate regional tidal dissipation with a periodicity of 18.6 years. In regions where the diurnal tidal constituents dominate diapycnal mixing, this Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC) may be significant enough to influence ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and climate variability. Such periodicity in the LNC as an external forcing may provide a mechanistic source for Pacific decadal variability (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) where diurnal tidal constituents are strong. We have introduced three enhancements to the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better simulate tidal-forced mixing. First, we have produced a sub-grid scale bathymetry scheme that better resolves the vertical distribution of the barotropic energy flux in regions where the native CESM grid does not resolve high spatial-scale bathymetric features. Second, we test a number of alternative barotropic tidal constituent energy flux fields that are derived from various satellite altimeter observations and tidal models. Third, we introduce modulations of the individual diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal constituents, ranging from monthly to decadal periods, as derived from the full lunisolar tidal potential. Using both ocean-only and fully-coupled configurations, we test the influence of these enhancements, particularly the LNC modulations, on ocean mixing and bidecadal climate variability in CESM.

Histone H4 acetylation regulates behavioral inter-individual variability in zebrafish.

PubMed

Román, Angel-Carlos; Vicente-Page, Julián; Pérez-Escudero, Alfonso; Carvajal-González, Jose M; Fernández-Salguero, Pedro M; de Polavieja, Gonzalo G

2018-04-25

Animals can show very different behaviors even in isogenic populations, but the underlying mechanisms to generate this variability remain elusive. We use the zebrafish (Danio rerio) as a model to test the influence of histone modifications on behavior. We find that laboratory and isogenic zebrafish larvae show consistent individual behaviors when swimming freely in identical wells or in reaction to stimuli. This behavioral inter-individual variability is reduced when we impair the histone deacetylation pathway. Individuals with high levels of histone H4 acetylation, and specifically H4K12, behave similarly to the average of the population, but those with low levels deviate from it. More precisely, we find a set of genomic regions whose histone H4 acetylation is reduced with the distance between the individual and the average population behavior. We find evidence that this modulation depends on a complex of Yin-yang 1 (YY1) and histone deacetylase 1 (HDAC1) that binds to and deacetylates these regions. These changes are not only maintained at the transcriptional level but also amplified, as most target regions are located near genes encoding transcription factors. We suggest that stochasticity in the histone deacetylation pathway participates in the generation of genetic-independent behavioral inter-individual variability.

A study of flux control for high-efficiency speed control of variable flux permanent magnet motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young Hyun; Lee, Seong Soo; Lee, Jung Ho

2018-05-01

In this study, we evaluate the performance of permanent magnets (PMs). The efficiency of attraction in the high speed region was studied using the variable flux memory motor (VFMM). It is presented in order to analyze the magnetic characteristics of PMs, using the second quadrant plan data with re- and de-magnetization. In addition, this study focuses on the evaluation of operational characteristics relative to the magnetizing directions according to the d-axis currents, by using one of the finite element solutions. The feasibility of application for the VFMM has been experimentally demonstrated.

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Assad, Eduardo D.; Marin, Fabio R.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Characterization of the variable-number tandem repeats in vrrA from different Bacillus anthracis isolates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackson, P.J.; Walthers, E.A.; Richmond, K.L.

1997-04-01

PCR analysis of 198 Bacillus anthracis isolates revealed a variable region of DNA sequence differing in length among the isolates. Five Polymorphisms differed by the presence Of two to six copies of the 12-bp tandem repeat 5{prime}-CAATATCAACAA-3{prime}. This variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) region is located within a larger sequence containing one complete open reading frame that encodes a putative 30-kDa protein. Length variation did not change the reading frame of the encoded protein and only changed the copy number of a 4-amino-acid sequence (QYQQ) from 2 to 6. The structure of the VNTR region suggests that these multiple repeats aremore » generated by recombination or polymerase slippage. Protein structures predicted from the reverse-translated DNA sequence suggest that any structural changes in the encoded protein are confined to the region encoded by the VNTR sequence. Copy number differences in the VNTR region were used to define five different B. anthracis alleles. Characterization of 198 isolates revealed allele frequencies of 6.1, 17.7, 59.6, 5.6, and 11.1% sequentially from shorter to longer alleles. The high degree of polymorphism in the VNTR region provides a criterion for assigning isolates to five allelic categories. There is a correlation between categories and geographic distribution. Such molecular markers can be used to monitor the epidemiology of anthrax outbreaks in domestic and native herbivore populations. 22 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Variability in Deposition Rates and Mean Days of Hospitalization for the 100 Most Common Diagnostic Codes in U.S. Army Health Services Command Facilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-02

artificially high degree of variability across regions. Mean bed days reflect provider behavior once the patient is hospitalized. However, variation in...0.12 3 4149 CHRONIC ISCHEMIC HEARR DISEASE :3.55 4.01 7.47 1.15 ’ 5243 ANOMALIES TOOTH POSITION 1.25 0.94 11.69 0.46 9 6565 POOR FETAL GROWTH 9.26

Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

2016-04-01

It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on spatiotemporal variability of specific discharge in a boreal region, Abstract #H52B-07 presented at 2014 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 15-19 Dec. [Available at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H52B..07K, last accessed 11 Jan 2016]. Teutschbein, C., T. Grabs, R.H. Karlsen, H. Laudon and K. Bishop (2015). Hydrological Response to Changing Climate Conditions: Spatial Streamflow Variability in the Boreal Region, Water Resour Res, doi: 10.1002/2015WR017337. [Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017337/abstract, last accessed 11 Jan 2016].

Population genetic structure of a California endemic Branchiopod, Branchinecta sandiegonensis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Cathleen P.; Simovich, Marie A.; Hathaway, Stacie A.

1997-01-01

Branchinecta sandiegonensis (Crustacea: Anostraca) is a narrow range endemic fairy shrimp discontinuously distributed in ephemeral pools on coastal mesas in San Diego County, USA. Ten populations across the range of the species were subjected to allozyme analysis for eleven loci. The species exhibits low variability (P95 =9.1–45.5) and one third of the loci tested did not conform to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium expectations. The species also exhibited a high degree of genetic differentiation between populations. F ST values (fixation index) for most pairs of populations were above 0.25 (0.036–0.889).Low genetic variability and high genetic structure may result from low gene flow and founder effects due to habitat fragmentation and the lack of potential vectors for cyst dispersal. The unpredictable rainfall of the region also creates potential for variable population sizes which could affect structure and variability.

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in an inversion based on the adjoint of the IMAGESv2 chemistry-transport model (Bauwens et al. 2016), we derive top-down biogenic emissions, which exhibit stronger emission trends than the bottom-up inventory at high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the response of biogenic emissions to warming temperature might be stronger than currently assumed in models.

Transient shifts in frontal and parietal circuits scale with enhanced visual feedback and changes in force variability and error

PubMed Central

Poon, Cynthia; Coombes, Stephen A.; Corcos, Daniel M.; Christou, Evangelos A.

2013-01-01

When subjects perform a learned motor task with increased visual gain, error and variability are reduced. Neuroimaging studies have identified a corresponding increase in activity in parietal cortex, premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and extrastriate visual cortex. Much less is understood about the neural processes that underlie the immediate transition from low to high visual gain within a trial. This study used 128-channel electroencephalography to measure cortical activity during a visually guided precision grip task, in which the gain of the visual display was changed during the task. Force variability during the transition from low to high visual gain was characterized by an inverted U-shape, whereas force error decreased from low to high gain. Source analysis identified cortical activity in the same structures previously identified using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Source analysis also identified a time-varying shift in the strongest source activity. Superior regions of the motor and parietal cortex had stronger source activity from 300 to 600 ms after the transition, whereas inferior regions of the extrastriate visual cortex had stronger source activity from 500 to 700 ms after the transition. Force variability and electrical activity were linearly related, with a positive relation in the parietal cortex and a negative relation in the frontal cortex. Force error was nonlinearly related to electrical activity in the parietal cortex and frontal cortex by a quadratic function. This is the first evidence that force variability and force error are systematically related to a time-varying shift in cortical activity in frontal and parietal cortex in response to enhanced visual gain. PMID:23365186

Variation in freshwater fish assemblages along a regional elevation gradient in the northern Andes, Colombia

PubMed Central

Carvajal-Quintero, Juan D; Escobar, Federico; Alvarado, Fredy; Villa-Navarro, Francisco A; Jaramillo-Villa, Úrsula; Maldonado-Ocampo, Javier A

2015-01-01

Studies on elevation diversity gradients have covered a large number of taxa and regions throughout the world; however, studies of freshwater fish are scarce and restricted to examining their changes along a specific gradient. These studies have reported a monotonic decrease in species richness with increasing elevation, but ignore the high taxonomic differentiation of each headwater assemblage that may generate high β-diversity among them. Here, we analyzed how fish assemblages vary with elevation among regional elevation bands, and how these changes are related to four environmental clines and to changes in the distribution, habitat use, and the morphology of fish species. Using a standardized field sampling technique, we assessed three different diversity and two structural assemblage measures across six regional elevation bands located in the northern Andes (Colombia). Each species was assigned to a functional group based on its body shape, habitat use, morphological, and/or behavioral adaptations. Additionally, at each sampling site, we measured four environmental variables. Our analyses showed: (1) After a monotonic decrease in species richness, we detected an increase in richness in the upper part of the gradient; (2) diversity patterns vary depending on the diversity measure used; (3) diversity patterns can be attributed to changes in species distribution and in the richness and proportions of functional groups along the regional elevation gradient; and (4) diversity patterns and changes in functional groups are highly correlated with variations in environmental variables, which also vary with elevation. These results suggest a novel pattern of variation in species richness with elevation: Species richness increases at the headwaters of the northern Andes owing to the cumulative number of endemic species there. This highlights the need for large-scale studies and has important implications for the aquatic conservation of the region. PMID:26257874

Landscape, demographic and climatic associations with human West Nile virus occurrence regionally in 2012 in the United States of America.

PubMed

DeGroote, John P; Sugumaran, Ramanathan; Ecker, Mark

2014-11-01

After several years of low West Nile virus (WNV) occurrence in the United States of America (USA), 2012 witnessed large outbreaks in several parts of the country. In order to understand the outbreak dynamics, spatial clustering and landscape, demographic and climatic associations with WNV occurrence were investigated at a regional level in the USA. Previous research has demonstrated that there are a handful of prominent WNV mosquito vectors with varying ecological requirements responsible for WNV transmission in the USA. Published range maps of these important vectors were georeferenced and used to define eight functional ecological regions in the coterminous USA. The number of human WNV cases and human populations by county were attained in order to calculate a WNV rate for each county in 2012. Additionally, a binary value (high/low) was calculated for each county based on whether the county WNV rate was above or below the rate for the region it fell in. Global Moran's I and Anselin Local Moran's I statistics of spatial association were used per region to examine and visualize clustering of the WNV rate and the high/low rating. Spatial data on landscape, demographic and climatic variables were compiled and derived from a variety of sources and then investigated in relation to human WNV using both Spearman rho correlation coefficients and Poisson regression models. Findings demonstrated significant spatial clustering of WNV and substantial inter-regional differences in relationships between WNV occurrence and landscape, demographic and climatically related variables. The regional associations were consistent with the ecologies of the dominant vectors for those regions. The large outbreak in the Southeast region was preceded by higher than normal winter and spring precipitation followed by dry and hot conditions in the summer.

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Holocene Evolution of Precipitation Patterns in the Southwestern US, Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean: Comparison with Tropical SST Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, J. A.; Metcalfe, S. E.; Davies, S. J.

2014-12-01

We evaluate proxy reconstructions of Holocene records precipitation in the North American Monsoon region (SW US and northern Mexico) and regions to the south (southern Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Seventy-seven precipitation records are tabulated at 2-3 kyr increments for the past 12 kyr, with results displayed mainly on maps. Sites currently dominated by summer precipitation, coupled with proxy records that distinguish summer vs. winter vegetation are used to estimate summer precipitation. Resulting patterns of precipitation variability are evaluated against SST reconstructions from surrounding tropical seas -eastern tropical Pacific, Gulf of California (GoC), Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico (GoM), which are source areas for summer precipitation. During the Younger Dryas, ca. 12 ka, widespread drying in southern regions contrasted with evidence for wetter conditions in multiple records from the SW US. By 9 ka wetter conditions had spread to the southern regions, likely reflecting an increased Caribbean low-level jet associated with an enhanced Bermuda High. Pacific westerlies contributed significant winter precipitation to the southwestern US and northernmost Mexico at 9 ka. The modern geographical pattern of summer precipitation was established by 6 ka, as the Bermuda High moved northward following the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. SSTs in the GoC and GoM increased, and the NAM strengthened. Increased regional precipitation differences are apparent by 4 ka, likely reflecting enhanced ENSO variability. Most of the southern region experienced increased precipitation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), whereas winter drought dominated in the north. In contrast, much of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was characterized by generally drier conditions in Central America and Mexico, with wetter conditions in the SW US. Results are broadly supportive of enhanced La Niña-like conditions during the MCA vs. increased ENSO variability during the LIA.

Retest imaging of [11C]NOP-1A binding to nociceptin/orphanin FQ peptide (NOP) receptors in the brain of healthy humans.

PubMed

Lohith, Talakad G; Zoghbi, Sami S; Morse, Cheryl L; Araneta, Maria D Ferraris; Barth, Vanessa N; Goebl, Nancy A; Tauscher, Johannes T; Pike, Victor W; Innis, Robert B; Fujita, Masahiro

2014-02-15

[(11)C]NOP-1A is a novel high-affinity PET ligand for imaging nociceptin/orphanin FQ peptide (NOP) receptors. Here, we report reproducibility and reliability measures of binding parameter estimates for [(11)C]NOP-1A binding in the brain of healthy humans. After intravenous injection of [(11)C]NOP-1A, PET scans were conducted twice on eleven healthy volunteers on the same (10/11 subjects) or different (1/11 subjects) days. Subjects underwent serial sampling of radial arterial blood to measure parent radioligand concentrations. Distribution volume (VT; a measure of receptor density) was determined by compartmental (one- and two-tissue) modeling in large regions and by simpler regression methods (graphical Logan and bilinear MA1) in both large regions and voxel data. Retest variability and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of VT were determined as measures of reproducibility and reliability respectively. Regional [(11)C]NOP-1A uptake in the brain was high, with a peak radioactivity concentration of 4-7 SUV (standardized uptake value) and a rank order of putamen>cingulate cortex>cerebellum. Brain time-activity curves fitted well in 10 of 11 subjects by unconstrained two-tissue compartmental model. The retest variability of VT was moderately good across brain regions except cerebellum, and was similar across different modeling methods, averaging 12% for large regions and 14% for voxel-based methods. The retest reliability of VT was also moderately good in most brain regions, except thalamus and cerebellum, and was similar across different modeling methods averaging 0.46 for large regions and 0.48 for voxels having gray matter probability >20%. The lowest retest variability and highest retest reliability of VT were achieved by compartmental modeling for large regions, and by the parametric Logan method for voxel-based methods. Moderately good reproducibility and reliability measures of VT for [(11)C]NOP-1A make it a useful PET ligand for comparing NOP receptor binding between different subject groups or under different conditions in the same subject. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain: A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun; Peng, Dongdong

2016-02-01

The FROALS (flexible regional ocean-atmosphere-land system) model, a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model, has been applied to the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain. Driven by historical simulations from a global climate system model, dynamical downscaling for the period from 1980 to 2005 has been conducted at a uniform horizontal resolution of 50 km. The impacts of regional air-sea couplings on the simulations of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall have been investigated, and comparisons have been made to corresponding simulations performed using a stand-alone regional climate model (RCM). The added value of the FROALS model with respect to the driving global climate model was evident in terms of both climatology and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over East China by the contributions of both the high horizontal resolution and the reasonably simulated convergence of the moisture fluxes. Compared with the stand-alone RCM simulations, the spatial pattern of the simulated low-level monsoon flow over East Asia and the western North Pacific was improved in the FROALS model due to its inclusion of regional air-sea coupling. The results indicated that the simulated sea surface temperature (SSTs) resulting from the regional air-sea coupling were lower than those derived directly from the driving global model over the western North Pacific north of 15°N. These colder SSTs had both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, they strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high, which improved the simulation of the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia. On the other hand, the colder SSTs suppressed surface evaporation and favored weaker local interannual variability in the SST, which led to less summer rainfall and weaker interannual rainfall variability over the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Overall, the reference simulation performed using the FROALS model is reasonable in terms of rainfall over the land area of East Asia and will become the basis for the generation of climate change scenarios for the CORDEX East Asia domain that will be described in future reports.

Diversity of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi strains collected from india using variable number tandem repeat (VNTR)-PCR analysis.

PubMed

Sankar, Sathish; Kuppanan, Suresh; Nandagopal, Balaji; Sridharan, Gopalan

2013-08-01

Typhoid fever is endemic in India, and a seasonal increase of cases is observed annually. In spite of effective therapies and the availability of vaccines, morbidity is widespread owing to the circulation of multiple genetic variants, frequent migration of asymptomatic carriers, unhygienic food practices and the emergence of multidrug resistance and thus continues to be a major public health problem in developing countries, particularly in India. Classical methods of strain typing such as pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, ribotyping, random amplification of polymorphic DNA and amplified fragment length polymorphism are either laborious and technically complicated or less discriminatory. We investigated the molecular diversity of Indian strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) isolated from humans from different parts of India to establish the molecular epidemiology of the organism using the variable number tandem repeat (VNTR)-PCR analysis. The electrophoretic band pattern was analysed using the GelCompar II software program. Of the 94 strains tested for three VNTRs loci, 75 VNTR genotypes were obtained. Of the three VNTRs tested in this study, VNTR1 was amplified in all the strains except one and found to be predominant. VNTR2 was amplified only in 57 strains with a Simpson diversity index of 0.93 indicating the high variability of this region within the strains. VNTR3 was amplified in 90 strains. The discriminatory power of this typing tool has been greatly enhanced by this VNTR2 region as the other two regions could not discriminate strains significantly. In our study, about 55 % of the strains amplified all three VNTR regions and 39 % of the strains lacked the VNTR2 region. Among the three VNTR regions tested, the majority of the strains produced similar banding pattern for any two regions grouped into a cluster. The strains grouped as a genotype were from the same geographical location. Strains collected from each geographical region were also highly heterogeneous. Such analysis is important to identify the genetic clones of the pathogen associated with sporadic infections and disease outbreak to identify the common source and implement public health measures.

Methane over South Asian region from GOSAT observations and ACTM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, N.; Hayashida, S.; Patra, P. K.; Saeki, T.

2017-12-01

Methane (CH4) is one of the most important short-lived climate forcers. About 8% of global CH4 emissions are estimated from South Asia, covering less than 1% of global land. However, large uncertainty prevails in the sectorial CH4 emissions because of the lack of measurements. With the availability of total column methane (XCH4) observations by satellites, variability in XCH4 have been captured for most parts of the global land with major emissions, which were otherwise not covered by the surface observation network. However, direct use of satellite data for estimating emissions by inversion analysis is highly ambiguous, unlike the in-situ measurements near the source region, XCH4 values are controlled by surface emission and CH4 abundances at all altitudes. Therefore, understanding the role of transport along with the emissions on XCH4 is necessary before using the XCH4 data for the inversion analysis. We analyzed XCH4 observed by the GHGs Observation SATellite (GOSAT) and simulations over the South Asia region using the JAMSTEC's atmospheric chemistry-transport model (ACTM). The analysis suggests that distinct XCH4 seasonal cycle over northern and southern regions of India is governed by the both heterogeneous distributions of surface emissions and variability in partial CH4 column in the upper troposphere. Using ACTM simulations, we find that over most part of the northern Indian regions up to 40% of the seasonal peak during the southwest (SW) monsoon is attributed to the lower troposphere ( 1000-600 hPa), while 40% to uplifted high-CH4 air masses in the upper troposphere ( 600-200 hPa). In contrast, XCH4 seasonal enhancement over the semi-arid region, with extremely low CH4 emissions, is attributed mainly ( 70%) to partial XCH4 variability in the upper troposphere. The lower tropospheric region contributes up to 60% in the XCH4 seasonal enhancement over the southern peninsula and oceanic region. These differences arise from the complex atmospheric transport mechanisms, caused by the seasonally varying monsoon.

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

PubMed

Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

1986-07-25

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

The Importance of the Regional Species Pool, Ecological Species Traits and Local Habitat Conditions for the Colonization of Restored River Reaches by Fish

PubMed Central

Stoll, Stefan; Kail, Jochem; Lorenz, Armin W.; Sundermann, Andrea; Haase, Peter

2014-01-01

It is commonly assumed that the colonization of restored river reaches by fish depends on the regional species pools; however, quantifications of the relationship between the composition of the regional species pool and restoration outcome are lacking. We analyzed data from 18 German river restoration projects and adjacent river reaches constituting the regional species pools of the restored reaches. We found that the ability of statistical models to describe the fish assemblages established in the restored reaches was greater when these models were based on ‘biotic’ variables relating to the regional species pool and the ecological traits of species rather than on ‘abiotic’ variables relating to the hydromorphological habitat structure of the restored habitats and descriptors of the restoration projects. For species presence in restored reaches, ‘biotic’ variables explained 34% of variability, with the occurrence rate of a species in the regional species pool being the most important variable, while ’abiotic’ variables explained only the negligible amount of 2% of variability. For fish density in restored reaches, about twice the amount of variability was explained by ‘biotic’ (38%) compared to ‘abiotic’ (21%) variables, with species density in the regional species pool being most important. These results indicate that the colonization of restored river reaches by fish is largely determined by the assemblages in the surrounding species pool. Knowledge of species presence and abundance in the regional species pool can be used to estimate the likelihood of fish species becoming established in restored reaches. PMID:24404187

Geographically weighted regression and geostatistical techniques to construct the geogenic radon potential map of the Lazio region: A methodological proposal for the European Atlas of Natural Radiation.

PubMed

Ciotoli, G; Voltaggio, M; Tuccimei, P; Soligo, M; Pasculli, A; Beaubien, S E; Bigi, S

2017-01-01

In many countries, assessment programmes are carried out to identify areas where people may be exposed to high radon levels. These programmes often involve detailed mapping, followed by spatial interpolation and extrapolation of the results based on the correlation of indoor radon values with other parameters (e.g., lithology, permeability and airborne total gamma radiation) to optimise the radon hazard maps at the municipal and/or regional scale. In the present work, Geographical Weighted Regression and geostatistics are used to estimate the Geogenic Radon Potential (GRP) of the Lazio Region, assuming that the radon risk only depends on the geological and environmental characteristics of the study area. A wide geodatabase has been organised including about 8000 samples of soil-gas radon, as well as other proxy variables, such as radium and uranium content of homogeneous geological units, rock permeability, and faults and topography often associated with radon production/migration in the shallow environment. All these data have been processed in a Geographic Information System (GIS) using geospatial analysis and geostatistics to produce base thematic maps in a 1000 m × 1000 m grid format. Global Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression and local Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) have been applied and compared assuming that the relationships between radon activities and the environmental variables are not spatially stationary, but vary locally according to the GRP. The spatial regression model has been elaborated considering soil-gas radon concentrations as the response variable and developing proxy variables as predictors through the use of a training dataset. Then a validation procedure was used to predict soil-gas radon values using a test dataset. Finally, the predicted values were interpolated using the kriging algorithm to obtain the GRP map of the Lazio region. The map shows some high GRP areas corresponding to the volcanic terrains (central-northern sector of Lazio region) and to faulted and fractured carbonate rocks (central-southern and eastern sectors of the Lazio region). This typical local variability of autocorrelated phenomena can only be taken into account by using local methods for spatial data analysis. The constructed GRP map can be a useful tool to implement radon policies at both the national and local levels, providing critical data for land use and planning purposes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Past variability of the Mexican Monsoon from ultrahigh resolution records in the Gulf of California for the last 6 Ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herguera, J.; Nava, C.; Hangsterfer, A.

2013-05-01

The Mexican monsoon is part of the larger North American Monsoon regime results from an interplay between the ocean, atmosphere and continental topography though there is an ongoing debate as to the relative importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the NE tropical Pacific warm water lens region, solar radiation variability, land snow cover and soil moisture over the Western North America mountain ranges and the strength and spatial patterns of the dominant winds. The links between these factors and the monsoonal variability appear to be of variable importance during the short instrumental record. This hampers any prediction on the future evolution of the climatic regime in a warming climate. The terrigenous component in very-high sedimentation rate sediments on the margin of the Gulf of California links monsoonal precipitation patterns on land with the varying importance of the lithogenic component in this margin sediments. The relatively high importance of the lithogenic component (>80%) of these sediments attests to the fidelity of this repository to the terrigenous input to this margin environment. Here we use the elemental composition of these margin sediments, as a proxy for the lithogenic component in a collection of box and kasten cores from Pescadero basin. This basin located in the southeastern region of the Gulf of California (24N, 108W) shows a strong tropical influence during the summer, as part of the northernmost extension of the eastern tropical Pacific warm water lens region. A period when the southwestern winds bring moist air masses inland enhancing the monsoonal rains on the eastern reaches of Sierra Madre Occidental. Here we present some new XRF results where we explore the relationships between different elemental ratios in these sediments and the available historical record and several paleo-reconstructions to evaluate the possible links between external forcings and internal feedback effects, to explain the evolution of the monsoon in this region.

Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China.

PubMed

Liu, Bing; Liu, Leilei; Tian, Liying; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

2014-02-01

Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Investigation of the marked and long-standing spatial inhomogeneity of the Hungarian suicide rate: a spatial regression approach.

PubMed

Balint, Lajos; Dome, Peter; Daroczi, Gergely; Gonda, Xenia; Rihmer, Zoltan

2014-02-01

In the last century Hungary had astonishingly high suicide rates characterized by marked regional within-country inequalities, a spatial pattern which has been quite stable over time. To explain the above phenomenon at the level of micro-regions (n=175) in the period between 2005 and 2011. Our dependent variable was the age and gender standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for suicide while explanatory variables were factors which are supposed to influence suicide risk, such as measures of religious and political integration, travel time accessibility of psychiatric services, alcohol consumption, unemployment and disability pensionery. When applying the ordinary least squared regression model, the residuals were found to be spatially autocorrelated, which indicates the violation of the assumption on the independence of error terms and - accordingly - the necessity of application of a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to handle this problem. According to our calculations the SARlag model was a better way (versus the SARerr model) of addressing the problem of spatial autocorrelation, furthermore its substantive meaning is more convenient. SMR was significantly associated with the "political integration" variable in a negative and with "lack of religious integration" and "disability pensionery" variables in a positive manner. Associations were not significant for the remaining explanatory variables. Several important psychiatric variables were not available at the level of micro-regions. We conducted our analysis on aggregate data. Our results may draw attention to the relevance and abiding validity of the classic Durkheimian suicide risk factors - such as lack of social integration - apropos of the spatial pattern of Hungarian suicides. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate and Edaphic Controls on Humid Tropical Forest Tree Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Saatchi, S. S.; Xu, L.

2014-12-01

Uncertainty in the magnitude and spatial variations of forest carbon density in tropical regions is due to under sampling of forest structure from inventory plots and the lack of regional allometry to estimate the carbon density from structure. Here we quantify the variation of tropical forest structure by using more than 2.5 million measurements of canopy height from systematic sampling of Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) satellite observations between 2004 to 2008 and examine the climate and edaphic variables influencing the variations. We used top canopy height of GLAS footprints (~ 0.25 ha) to grid the statistical mean and 90 percentile of samples at 0.5 degrees to capture the regional variability of large trees in tropics. GLAS heights were also aggregated based on a stratification of tropical regions using soil, elevation, and forest types. Both approaches provided consistent patterns of statistically dominant large trees and the least heterogeneity, both as strong drivers of distribution of high biomass forests. Statistical models accounting for spatial autocorrelation suggest that climate, soil and spatial features together can explain more than 60% of the variations in observed tree height information, while climate-only variables explains about one third of the first-order changes in tree height. Soil basics, including physical compositions such as clay and sand contents, chemical properties such as PH values and cation-exchange capacity, as well as biological variables such as organic matters, all present independent but statistically significant relationships to tree height variations. The results confirm other landscape and regional studies that soil fertility, geology and climate may jointly control a majority of the regional variations of forest structure in pan-tropics and influencing both biomass stocks and dynamics. Consequently, other factors such as biotic and disturbance regimes, not included in this study, may have less influence on regional variations but strongly mediate landscape and small-scale forest structure and dynamics.

Regional variation in the biogeochemical and physical characteristics of natural peatland pools.

PubMed

Turner, T Edward; Billett, Michael F; Baird, Andy J; Chapman, Pippa J; Dinsmore, Kerry J; Holden, Joseph

2016-03-01

Natural open-water pools are a common feature of northern peatlands and are known to be an important source of atmospheric methane (CH4). Pool environmental variables, particularly water chemistry, vegetation community and physical characteristics, have the potential to exert strong controls on carbon cycling in pools. A total of 66 peatland pools were studied across three regions of the UK (northern Scotland, south-west Scotland, and Northern Ireland). We found that within-region variability of pool water chemistry was low; however, for many pool variables measured there were significant differences between regions. PCA analysis showed that pools in SW Scotland were strongly associated with greater vegetative cover and shallower water depth which is likely to increase dissolved organic carbon (DOC) mineralisation rates, whereas pools in N Scotland were more open and deeper. Pool water DOC, particulate organic carbon and dissolved CH4 concentrations were significantly different between regions. Pools in Northern Ireland had the highest concentrations of DOC (mean=14.5 mg L(-1)) and CH4 (mean=20.6 μg C L(-1)). Chloride and sulphate concentrations were significantly higher in the pools in N Scotland (mean values 26.3 and 2.40 mg L(-1), respectively) than elsewhere, due to a stronger marine influence. The ratio of UV absorbance at 465 nm to absorbance at 665 nm for pools in Northern Ireland indicated that DOC was sourced from poorly humified peat, potentially increasing the bioavailability and mineralisation of organic carbon in pools compared to the pools elsewhere. This study, which specifically aims to address a lack of basic biogeochemical knowledge about pool water chemistry, clearly shows that peatland pools are highly regionally variable. This is likely to be a reflection of significant regional-scale differences in peatland C cycling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model-Based Segmentation of Cortical Regions of Interest for Multi-subject Analysis of fMRI Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Karin; Brechmann, Andr'e.; Toennies, Klaus

The high inter-subject variability of human neuroanatomy complicates the analysis of functional imaging data across subjects. We propose a method for the correct segmentation of cortical regions of interest based on the cortical surface. First results on the segmentation of Heschl's gyrus indicate the capability of our approach for correct comparison of functional activations in relation to individual cortical patterns.

Characterizing Variability in the Distribution of High-Frequency Acoustic Backscattering in a Shallow Water Coastal Region

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

zooplankton scatterer types, perhaps dominated by copepods and gas- bearing siphonophores (Lawson et al., 2004). Similar analyses of multi-frequency...in this Gulf of Maine study region, gas-bearing siphonophores dominated scattering at all four BIOMAPER-II frequencies (Lavery et al., in press...with multi-frequency acoustics. 2. Away from these locations, other zooplankton dominated scattering, especially copepods and gas-bearing siphonophores

Turbulent mass flux closure modeling for variable density turbulence in the wake of an air-entraining transom stern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrickson, Kelli; Yue, Dick

2016-11-01

This work presents the development and a priori testing of closure models for the incompressible highly-variable density turbulent (IHVDT) flow in the near wake region of a transom stern. This complex, three-dimensional flow includes three regions with distinctly different flow behavior: (i) the convergent corner waves that originate from the body and collide on the ship center plane; (ii) the "rooster tail" that forms from the collision; and (iii) the diverging wave train. The characteristics of these regions involve violent free-surface flows and breaking waves with significant turbulent mass flux (TMF) at Atwood number At = (ρ2 -ρ1) / (ρ2 +ρ1) 1 for which there is little guidance in turbulence closure modeling for the momentum and scalar transport along the wake. Utilizing datasets from high-resolution simulations of the near wake of a canonical three-dimensional transom stern using conservative Volume-of-Fluid (cVOF), implicit Large Eddy Simulation (iLES), and Boundary Data Immersion Method (BDIM), we develop explicit algebraic turbulent mass flux closure models that incorporate the most relevant physical processes. Performance of these models in predicting the turbulent mass flux in all three regions of the wake will be presented. Office of Naval Research.

A new dipole index of the salinity anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Li, Junde; Liang, Chujin; Tang, Youmin; Dong, Changming; Chen, Dake; Liu, Xiaohui; Jin, Weifang

2016-04-07

With the increased interest in studying the sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA) of the tropical Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an index describing the dipole variability of the SSSA has been pursued recently. In this study, we first use a regional ocean model with a high spatial resolution to produce a high-quality salinity simulation during the period from 1982 to 2014, from which the SSSA dipole structure is identified for boreal autumn. On this basis, by further analysing the observed data, we define a dipole index of the SSSA between the central equatorial Indian Ocean (CEIO: 70°E-90°E, 5°S-5°N) and the region off the Sumatra-Java coast (SJC: 100°E-110°E, 13°S-3°S). Compared with previous SSSA dipole indices, this index has advantages in detecting the dipole signals and in characterizing their relationship to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole variability. Finally, the mechanism of the SSSA dipole is investigated by dynamical diagnosis. It is found that anomalous zonal advection dominates the SSSA in the CEIO region, whereas the SSSA in the SJC region are mainly influenced by the anomalous surface freshwater flux. This SSSA dipole provides a positive feedback to the formation of the IOD events.

The Identification of Microdeletion and Reciprocal Microduplication in 22q11.2 Using High-Resolution CMA Technology

PubMed Central

Leite, Ana Julia Cunha; Pinto, Irene Plaza; Cunha, Damiana Mirian da Cruz e; Ribeiro, Cristiano Luiz; da Silva, Claudio Carlos; da Cruz, Aparecido Divino; Minasi, Lysa Bernardes

2016-01-01

The chromosome 22q11.2 region has long been implicated in genomic diseases. Some genomic regions exhibit numerous low copy repeats with high identity in which they provide increased genomic instability and mediate deletions and duplications in many disorders. DiGeorge Syndrome is the most common deletion syndrome and reciprocal duplications could be occurring in half of the frequency of microdeletions. We described five patients with phenotypic variability that carries deletions or reciprocal duplications at 22q11.2 detected by Chromosomal Microarray Analysis. The CytoScan HD technology was used to detect changes in the genome copy number variation of patients who had clinical indication to global developmental delay and a normal karyotype. We observed in our study three microdeletions and two microduplications in 22q11.2 region with variable intervals containing known genes and unstudied transcripts as well as the LCRs that are often flanking and within this genomic rearrangement. The identification of these variants is of particular interest because it may provide insight into genes or genomic regions that are crucial for specific phenotypic manifestations and are useful to assist in the quest for understanding the mechanisms subjacent to genomic deletions and duplications. PMID:27123452

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

High resolution reconstruction of monthly autumn and winter precipitation of Iberian Peninsula for last 150 years.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortesi, N.; Trigo, R.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Ramos, A.

2012-04-01

Precipitation over Iberian Peninsula (IP) presents large values of interannual variability and large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions in the north and dry regions in the southern plains. Unlike other European regions, IP was poorly monitored for precipitation during 19th century. Here we present a new approach to fill this gap. A set of 26 atmospheric circulation weather types (Trigo R.M. and DaCamara C.C., 2000) derived from a recent SLP dataset, the EMULATE (European and North Atlantic daily to multidecadal climate variability) Project, was used to reconstruct Iberian monthly precipitation from October to March during 1851-1947. Principal Component Regression Analysis was chosen to develop monthly precipitation reconstruction back to 1851 and calibrated over 1948-2003 period for 3030 monthly precipitation series of high-density homogenized MOPREDAS (Monthly Precipitation Database for Spain and Portugal) database. Validation was conducted over 1920-1947 at 15 key site locations. Results show high model performance for selected months, with a mean coefficient of variation (CV) around 0.6 during validation period. Lower CV values were achieved in western area of IP. Trigo, R. M., and DaCamara, C.C., 2000: "Circulation weather types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Modeling Responses of Dryland Spring Triticale, Proso Millet and Foxtail Millet to Initial Soil Water in the High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland farming strategies in the High Plains must make efficient use of limited and variable precipitation and stored water in the soil profile for stable and sustainable farm productivity. Current research efforts focus on replacing summer fallow in the region with more profitable and environmenta...

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of individual storms can be tracked and compared with observations. Also statistical studies can be done and one can calculate percentiles, return periods and other different extreme value statistic variables. Later, with a further nesting simulation, the resolution can be reduced to 1 km for individual areas of interest to analyse small islands (as Foehr or Amrum) and their effects on the atmospheric flow more closely.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

Hot regions of labile and stable soil organic carbon in Germany - Spatial variability and driving factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vos, Cora; Jaconi, Angélica; Jacobs, Anna; Don, Axel

2018-06-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels can be mitigated by sequestering carbon in the soil. Sequestration can be facilitated by agricultural management, but its influence is not the same on all soil carbon pools, as labile pools with a high turnover may be accumulated much faster but are also more vulnerable to losses. The aims of this study were to (1) assess how soil organic carbon (SOC) is distributed among SOC fractions on a national scale in Germany, (2) identify factors influencing this distribution and (3) identify regions with high vulnerability to SOC losses. The SOC content and proportion of two different SOC fractions were estimated for more than 2500 mineral topsoils (< 87 g kg-1 SOC) covering Germany, using near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy. Drivers of the spatial variability in SOC fractions were determined using the machine learning algorithm cforest. The SOC content and proportions of fractions were predicted with good accuracy (SOC content: R2 = 0.87-0.90; SOC proportions: R2 = 0.83; ratio of performance to deviation (RPD): 2.4-3.2). The main explanatory variables for the distribution of SOC among the fractions were soil texture, bulk soil C / N ratio, total SOC content and pH. For some regions, the drivers were linked to the land-use history of the sites. Arable topsoils in central and southern Germany were found to contain the highest proportions and contents of stable SOC fractions, and therefore have the lowest vulnerability to SOC losses. North-western Germany contains an area of sandy soils with unusually high SOC contents and high proportions of light SOC fractions, which are commonly regarded as representing a labile carbon pool. This is true for the former peat soils in this area, which have already lost and are at high risk of losing high proportions of their SOC stocks. Those black sands can, however, also contain high amounts of stable SOC due to former heathland vegetation and need to be treated and discussed separately from non-black sand agricultural soils. Overall, it was estimated that, in large areas all over Germany, over 30 % of SOC is stored in easily mineralisable forms. Thus, SOC-conserving management of arable soils in these regions is of great importance.

Effects of increased wind power generation on Mid-Norway's energy balance under climate change: A market based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Martino, Sara; Tofte, Lena; Hingray, Benoit; Mo, Birger; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Thanks to its huge water storage capacity, Norway has an excess of energy generation at annual scale, although significant regional disparity exists. On average, the Mid-Norway region has an energy deficit and needs to import more electricity than it exports. We show that this energy deficit can be reduced with an increase in wind generation and transmission line capacity, even in future climate scenarios where both mean annual temperature and precipitation are changed. For the considered scenarios, the deficit observed in winter disappears, i.e. when electricity consumption and prices are high. At the annual scale, the deficit behavior depends more on future changes in precipitation. Another consequence of changes in wind production and transmission capacity is the modification of electricity exchanges with neighboring regions which are also modified both in terms of average, variability and seasonality. Keywords: Variable renewable energy, Wind, Hydro, Energy balance, Energy market

Multiple GISS AGCM Hindcasts and MSU Versions of 1979-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Kathryn Pierce; Rind, David; Druyan, Leonard; Lonergan, Patrick; Chandler, Mark

1998-01-01

Multiple realizations of the 1979-1998 time period have been simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GISS AGCM) to explore its responsiveness to accumulated forcings, particularly over sensitive agricultural regions. A microwave radiative transfer postprocessor has produced the AGCM's lower tropospheric, tropospheric and lower stratospheric brightness temperature (Tb) time series for correlations with the various Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) time series available. MSU maps of monthly means and anomalies were also used to assess the AGCM's mean annual cycle and regional variability. Seven realizations by the AGCM were forced by observed sea surface temperatures (sst) through 1992 to gather rough standard deviations associated with internal model variability. Subsequent runs hindcast January 1979 through April 1998 with an accumulation of forcings: observed ssts, greenhouse gases, stratospheric volcanic aerosols. stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and tropospheric sulfate and black carbon aerosols. The goal of narrowing gaps between AGCM and MSU time series was complicated by MSU time series, by Tb simulation concerns and by unforced climatic variability in the AGCM and in the real world. Lower stratospheric Tb correlations between the AGCM and MSU for 1979-1998 reached as high as 0.91 +/-0.16 globally with sst, greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosol, stratospheric ozone forcings and tropospheric aerosols. Mid-tropospheric Tb correlations reached as high as 0.66 +/-.04 globally and 0.84 +/-.02 in the tropics. Oceanic lower tropospheric Tb correlations similarly reached 0.61 +/-.06 globally and 0.79 +/-.02 in the tropics. Of the sensitive agricultural areas considered, Nordeste in northeastern Brazil was simulated best with mid-tropospheric Tb correlations up to 0.75 +/- .03. The two other agricultural regions, in Africa and in the northern mid-latitudes, suffered from higher levels of non-sst variability. Zimbabwe had a maximum mid-tropospheric correlation of 0.54 +/- 0.11 while the U.S. Cornbelt had only 0.25 +/- .10. Precipitation and surface temperature performance are also examined over these regions. Correlations of MSU and AGCM time series mostly improved with addition of explicit atmospheric forcings in zonal bands but not in agricultural regional bins each encompassing only six AGCM gridcells.

The macro-structural variability of the human neocortex.

PubMed

Kruggel, Frithjof

2018-05-15

The human neocortex shows a considerable individual structural variability. While primary gyri and sulci are found in all normally developed brains and bear clear-cut gross structural descriptions, secondary structures are highly variable and not present in all brains. The blend of common and individual structures poses challenges when comparing structural and functional results from quantitative neuroimaging studies across individuals, and sets limits on the precision of location information much above the spatial resolution of current neuroimaging methods. This work aimed at quantifying structural variability on the neocortex, and at assessing the spatial relationship between regions common to all brains and their individual structural variants. Based on structural MRI data provided as the "900 Subjects Release" of the Human Connectome Project, a data-driven analytic approach was employed here from which the definition of seven cortical "communities" emerged. Apparently, these communities comprise common regions of structural features, while the individual variability is confined within a community. Similarities between the community structure and the state of the brain development at gestation week 32 lead suggest that communities are segregated early. Subdividing the neocortex into communities is suggested as anatomically more meaningful than the traditional lobar structure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in future projections of global and regional marine fisheries catches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reygondeau, G.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Froelicher, T. L.; Stock, C. A.; Jones, M. C.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have projected the global redistribution of potential marine fisheries catches by mid-21st century under climate change, with increases in high latitude regions and pronounced decreases in tropical biomes. However, quantified confidence levels of such projections are not available, rendering it difficult to interpret the associated risk to society. This paper quantifies the confidence of changes in future fish production using a 30-member ensemble simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M (representing internal variability of oceanographic conditions), three structural variants of a mechanistic species distribution model (representing uncertainty in fisheries models and different greenhouse gas emission and fishing scenarios (representing scenario uncertainty). We project that total potential catches of 500 exploited fish and invertebrate stocks, that contribute most to regional fisheries catches and their variability, will likely decrease in the 21st century under a `business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). Fishing and it's management remains a main factor determining future fish stocks and their catches. Internal variability of projected ocean conditions, including temperature, oxygen level, pH, net primary production and sea ice contributes substantially to the uncertainty of potential catch projections. Regionally, climate-driven decreases in potential catches in tropical oceans and increases in the Arctic polar regions are projected with higher confidence than other regions, while the direction of changes in most mid-latitude (or temperate) regions is uncertain. Under a stringent greenhouse gas mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change impacts on potential catches may not emerge from their uncertainties. Overall, this study provides a foundation for quantifying risks of climate change impacts on marine fisheries globally and regionally, and how such risk may be altered by policy interventions.

Disturbance dynamo effects over low-latitude F region: A study by network of VHF spaced receivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakad, B.; Surve, G.; Tiwari, P.; Yadav, V.; Bhattacharyya, A.

2017-05-01

Generation of equatorial spread F (ESF) irregularities resulting from magnetic disturbance is known for past few decades. However, better prediction models for this phenomenon are still lacking. Magnetic storms also affects the F region plasma drifts. In this work we examined variability in (i) occurrence of such freshly generated ESF and (ii) low-latitude F region zonal plasma drifts over Indian longitude. For this purpose simultaneous observations of amplitude scintillations on 251 MHz signal, recorded by a network of spaced receivers located at low-latitude stations, are utilized. Observational stations are situated such that it longitudinally (latitudinally) covers an area of 5.6° (13°). Here effect of disturbance dynamo (DD) electric field at low-latitude F region and its variability are studied for three magnetic storms occurring in 2011. These magnetic storms are having nearly similar type characteristics except their start time. We find that as time difference (i.e., ΔT) between local sunset and start of magnetic activity decreases, the DD effects seen at low-latitude F region zonal irregularity drift around midnight becomes stronger. For a given magnetic storm the DD effect on F region zonal irregularity drifts is found to be only marginally stronger at dip equator in comparison to off-equatorial stations. Although effect of DD on F region zonal irregularity drifts are felt simultaneously, generation of fresh ESF is variable within a smaller longitudinal belt of 5.6°. It is attributed to the presence of LSWS at the bottomside of F region, as initiation of ESF is highly likely (unlikely) in the vicinity of crest (trough) of such LSWS.

Analysis of variable sites between two complete South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) mitochondrial genomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenping; Yue, Bisong; Wang, Xiaofang; Zhang, Xiuyue; Xie, Zhong; Liu, Nonglin; Fu, Wenyuan; Yuan, Yaohua; Chen, Daqing; Fu, Danghua; Zhao, Bo; Yin, Yuzhong; Yan, Xiahui; Wang, Xinjing; Zhang, Rongying; Liu, Jie; Li, Maoping; Tang, Yao; Hou, Rong; Zhang, Zhihe

2011-10-01

In order to investigate the mitochondrial genome of Panthera tigris amoyensis, two South China tigers (P25 and P27) were analyzed following 15 cymt-specific primer sets. The entire mtDNA sequence was found to be 16,957 bp and 17,001 bp long for P25 and P27 respectively, and this difference in length between P25 and P27 occurred in the number of tandem repeats in the RS-3 segment of the control region. The structural characteristics of complete P. t. amoyensis mitochondrial genomes were also highly similar to those of P. uncia. Additionally, the rate of point mutation was only 0.3% and a total of 59 variable sites between P25 and P27 were found. Out of the 59 variable sites, 6 were located in 6 different tRNA genes, 6 in the 2 rRNA genes, 7 in non-coding regions (one located between tRNA-Asn and tRNA-Tyr and six in the D-loop), and 40 in 10 protein-coding genes. COI held the largest amount of variable sites (9 sites) and Cytb contained the highest variable rate (0.7%) in the complete sequences. Moreover, out of the 40 variable sites located in 10 protein-coding genes, 12 sites were nonsynonymous.

High Resolution Forecasts in the Florida Straits: Predicting the Modulations of the Florida Current and Connectivity Around South Florida and Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, V.; Kang, H.; Perlin, N.; Le Henaff, M.; Lamkin, J. T.

2016-02-01

Connectivity around the South Florida coastal regions and between South Florida and Cuba are largely influenced by a) local coastal processes and b) circulation in the Florida Straits, which is controlled by the larger scale Florida Current variability. Prediction of the physical connectivity is a necessary component for several activities that require ocean forecasts, such as oil spills, fisheries research, search and rescue. This requires a predictive system that can accommodate the intense coastal to offshore interactions and the linkages to the complex regional circulation. The Florida Straits, South Florida and Florida Keys Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model is such a regional ocean predictive system, covering a large area over the Florida Straits and the adjacent land areas, representing both coastal and oceanic processes. The real-time ocean forecast system is high resolution ( 900m), embedded in larger scale predictive models. It includes detailed coastal bathymetry, high resolution/high frequency atmospheric forcing and provides 7-day forecasts, updated daily (see: http://coastalmodeling.rsmas.miami.edu/). The unprecedented high resolution and coastal details of this system provide value added on global forecasts through downscaling and allow a variety of applications. Examples will be presented, focusing on the period of a 2015 fisheries cruise around the coastal areas of Cuba, where model predictions helped guide the measurements on biophysical connectivity, under intense variability of the mesoscale eddy field and subsequent Florida Current meandering.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

Temporal analysis of the frequency and duration of low and high streamflow: Years of record needed to characterize streamflow variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huh, S.; Dickey, D.A.; Meador, M.R.; Ruhl, K.E.

2005-01-01

A temporal analysis of the number and duration of exceedences of high- and low-flow thresholds was conducted to determine the number of years required to detect a level shift using data from Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Two methods were used - ordinary least squares assuming a known error variance and generalized least squares without a known error variance. Using ordinary least squares, the mean number of years required to detect a one standard deviation level shift in measures of low-flow variability was 57.2 (28.6 on either side of the break), compared to 40.0 years for measures of high-flow variability. These means become 57.6 and 41.6 when generalized least squares is used. No significant relations between years and elevation or drainage area were detected (P>0.05). Cluster analysis did not suggest geographic patterns in years related to physiography or major hydrologic regions. Referring to the number of observations required to detect a one standard deviation shift as 'characterizing' the variability, it appears that at least 20 years of record on either side of a shift may be necessary to adequately characterize high-flow variability. A longer streamflow record (about 30 years on either side) may be required to characterize low-flow variability. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic variation of piperidine alkaloids in Pinus ponderosa: a common garden study.

PubMed

Gerson, Elizabeth A; Kelsey, Rick G; St Clair, J Bradley

2009-02-01

Previous measurements of conifer alkaloids have revealed significant variation attributable to many sources, environmental and genetic. The present study takes a complementary and intensive, common garden approach to examine genetic variation in Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa alkaloid production. Additionally, this study investigates the potential trade-off between seedling growth and alkaloid production, and associations between topographic/climatic variables and alkaloid production. Piperidine alkaloids were quantified in foliage of 501 nursery seedlings grown from seed sources in west-central Washington, Oregon and California, roughly covering the western half of the native range of ponderosa pine. A nested mixed model was used to test differences among broad-scale regions and among families within regions. Alkaloid concentrations were regressed on seedling growth measurements to test metabolite allocation theory. Likewise, climate characteristics at the seed sources were also considered as explanatory variables. Quantitative variation from seedling to seedling was high, and regional variation exceeded variation among families. Regions along the western margin of the species range exhibited the highest alkaloid concentrations, while those further east had relatively low alkaloid levels. Qualitative variation in alkaloid profiles was low. All measures of seedling growth related negatively to alkaloid concentrations on a natural log scale; however, coefficients of determination were low. At best, annual height increment explained 19.4 % of the variation in ln(total alkaloids). Among the climate variables, temperature range showed a negative, linear association that explained 41.8 % of the variation. Given the wide geographic scope of the seed sources and the uniformity of resources in the seedlings' environment, observed differences in alkaloid concentrations are evidence for genetic regulation of alkaloid secondary metabolism in ponderosa pine. The theoretical trade-off with seedling growth appeared to be real, however slight. The climate variables provided little evidence for adaptive alkaloid variation, especially within regions.

Influence of spatial resolution on precipitation simulations for the central Andes Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachte, Katja; Bendix, Jörg

2013-04-01

The climate of South America is highly influenced by the north-south oriented Andes Mountains. Their complex structure causes modifications of large-scale atmospheric circulations resulting in various mesoscale phenomena as well as a high variability in the local conditions. Due to their height and length the terrain generates distinctly climate conditions between the western and the eastern slopes. While in the tropical regions along the western flanks the conditions are cold and arid, the eastern slopes are dominated by warm-moist and rainy air coming from the Amazon basin. Below 35° S the situation reverses with rather semiarid conditions in the eastern part and temperate rainy climate along southern Chile. Generally, global circulation models (GCMs) describe the state of the global climate and its changes, but are disabled to capture regional or even local features due to their coarse resolution. This is particularly true in heterogeneous regions such as the Andes Mountains, where local driving features, e. g. local circulation systems, highly varies on small scales and thus, lead to a high variability of rainfall distributions. An appropriate technique to overcome this problem and to gain regional and local scale rainfall information is the dynamical downscaling of the global data using a regional climate model (RCM). The poster presents results of the evaluation of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over South America with special focus on the central Andes Mountains of Ecuador. A sensitivity study regarding the cumulus parametrization, microphysics, boundary layer processes and the radiation budget is conducted. With 17 simulations consisting of 16 parametrization scheme combinations and 1 default run a suitable model set-up for climate research in this region is supposed to be evaluated. The simulations were conducted in a two-way nested mode i) to examine the best physics scheme combination for the target and ii) to analyze the impact of spatial resolution and thus, the representation of the terrain on the result.

Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

2017-04-01

Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

2014-01-01

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

Wind Forced Variability in Eddy Formation, Eddy Shedding, and the Separation of the East Australian Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bull, Christopher Y. S.; Kiss, Andrew E.; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; England, Matthew H.; van Sebille, Erik

2017-12-01

The East Australian Current (EAC), like many other subtropical western boundary currents, is believed to be penetrating further poleward in recent decades. Previous observational and model studies have used steady state dynamics to relate changes in the westerly winds to changes in the separation behavior of the EAC. As yet, little work has been undertaken on the impact of forcing variability on the EAC and Tasman Sea circulation. Here using an eddy-permitting regional ocean model, we present a suite of simulations forced by the same time-mean fields, but with different atmospheric and remote ocean variability. These eddy-permitting results demonstrate the nonlinear response of the EAC to variable, nonstationary inhomogeneous forcing. These simulations show an EAC with high intrinsic variability and stochastic eddy shedding. We show that wind stress variability on time scales shorter than 56 days leads to increases in eddy shedding rates and southward eddy propagation, producing an increased transport and southward reach of the mean EAC extension. We adopt an energetics framework that shows the EAC extension changes to be coincident with an increase in offshore, upstream eddy variance (via increased barotropic instability) and increase in subsurface mean kinetic energy along the length of the EAC. The response of EAC separation to regional variable wind stress has important implications for both past and future climate change studies.

Identifying high production, low production and degraded rangelands in Senegal with normalized difference vegetation index data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tappan, G. Gray; Wood, Lynette; Moore, Donald G.

1993-01-01

Seasonal herbaceous vegetation production on Senegal's native rangelands exhibits high spatial and temporal variability. This variability can be monitored using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data computed from 1-km resolution Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) image data. Although annual fluctuations in rainfall account for some of the variability, numerous long-term production patterns are evident in the AVHRR time-series data. Different n productivity reflect variations in the region's climate, topography, soils, and land use. Areas of overgrazing and intensive cultivation have caused long-term soil and vegetation degradation. Rangelands of high and low productivity, and degraded rangelands were identified using NDVI. Time-series image data from 1987 though 1992 were used to map relative rangeland productivity. The results were compared to detailed resource maps on soils, vegetation and land use. Much of the variation in rangeland productivity correlated well to the known distribution of resources. The study developed an approach that identified a number of areas of degraded soils and low vegetation production.

A MAD model for gamma-ray burst variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloyd-Ronning, Nicole M.; Dolence, Joshua C.; Fryer, Christopher L.

2016-09-01

We present a model for the temporal variability of long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) during the prompt phase (the highly variable first 100 s or so), in the context of a magnetically arrested disc (MAD) around a black hole. In this state, sufficient magnetic flux is held on to the black hole such that it stalls the accretion near the inner region of the disc. The system transitions in and out of the MAD state, which we relate to the variable luminosity of the GRB during the prompt phase, with a characteristic time-scale defined by the free-fall time in the region over which the accretion is arrested. We present simple analytic estimates of the relevant energetics and time-scales, and compare them to GRB observations. In particular, we show how this model can reproduce the characteristic one second time-scale that emerges from various analyses of the prompt emission light curve. We also discuss how our model can accommodate the potentially physically important correlation between a burst quiescent time and the duration of its subsequent pulse.

Searching for Variability of NV Intrinsic Narrow Absorption Line Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodruck, Michael; Charlton, Jane; Ganguly, Rajib

2018-01-01

The majority of quasar absorption line systems with NV detected are found within the associated region (within 5000 km/s of the quasar redshift) and many/most are believed to be related to the quasar accretion disk wind or outflows. The most definite evidence that these NV absorbers are "intrinsic" is partial covering of the quasar continuum source and/or broad line region. Over 75 quasars containing NV narrow absorption lines have observations obtained at different times with the Keck/HIRES and the VLT/UVES spectrographs at high resolution. The interval between these observations range from months to a decade in the quasar rest frame. While variability is common for intrinsic broad and mini-broad absorption lines, intrinsic narrow absorption lines have been found to be less likely to vary, though systematic studies with large, high quality datasets have been limited. The variability timescales are useful for deriving gas densities and thus the distances from the central engines. This is important in mapping the quasar surroundings, understanding the accretion disk wind mechanism, and assessing the effect the wind has on the galaxy surroundings. We report on the results of a systematic study of variability of NV NALs, exploiting the overlap of targets for observations in the archives of Keck and VLT, and discuss the consequences for interpretation of the origin of intrinsic narrow absorption lines.

Epithelial–mesenchymal transition biomarkers and support vector machine guided model in preoperatively predicting regional lymph node metastasis for rectal cancer

PubMed Central

Fan, X-J; Wan, X-B; Huang, Y; Cai, H-M; Fu, X-H; Yang, Z-L; Chen, D-K; Song, S-X; Wu, P-H; Liu, Q; Wang, L; Wang, J-P

2012-01-01

Background: Current imaging modalities are inadequate in preoperatively predicting regional lymph node metastasis (RLNM) status in rectal cancer (RC). Here, we designed support vector machine (SVM) model to address this issue by integrating epithelial–mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-related biomarkers along with clinicopathological variables. Methods: Using tissue microarrays and immunohistochemistry, the EMT-related biomarkers expression was measured in 193 RC patients. Of which, 74 patients were assigned to the training set to select the robust variables for designing SVM model. The SVM model predictive value was validated in the testing set (119 patients). Results: In training set, eight variables, including six EMT-related biomarkers and two clinicopathological variables, were selected to devise SVM model. In testing set, we identified 63 patients with high risk to RLNM and 56 patients with low risk. The sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy of SVM in predicting RLNM were 68.3%, 81.1% and 72.3%, respectively. Importantly, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that SVM model was indeed an independent predictor of RLNM status (odds ratio, 11.536; 95% confidence interval, 4.113–32.361; P<0.0001). Conclusion: Our SVM-based model displayed moderately strong predictive power in defining the RLNM status in RC patients, providing an important approach to select RLNM high-risk subgroup for neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. PMID:22538975

An analysis of the determinants of maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Buor, Daniel; Bream, Kent

2004-10-01

To establish what population characteristics affect the high maternal mortality rate in the sub-Saharan Africa region and to propose possible solutions to reduce this rate. This study is a secondary analysis of existing data sources from the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), as well as direct and indirect sources from UNAIDS, the United Nations, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Macro International, and national statistical offices. Instead of looking at continentwide or individual nation models, it develops a regional model. Sociodemographic population variables are used as independent variables to predict the dependent variable, maternal mortality. Additionally, a new country-specific political stability independent variable is introduced into the model. Data from 28 sub-Saharan African countries are used. Bivariate correlations are used to establish associations among the variables, whereas cross-tabulations, using Kendall's tau-c values, and regression lines are used to establish impacts. In the sub-Saharan Africa region, births attended by skilled health personnel and life expectancy at birth strongly correlate with maternal mortality. Gross national product (GNP) per capita and health expenditure per capita also have strong association with maternal mortality. The availability of skilled delivery personnel, life expectancy, national economic wealth, and health expenditure per capita predict the maternal mortality rate of a country. Based on these findings, it is recommended that structural arrangements be made to train skilled health personnel to take care of maternal health problems. In view of the high cost of training physicians, middle-level health personnel may offer an affordable alternative to handle emergency obstetrical cases to address the shortage of physicians. In addition, the allocation of adequate resources to the health sector could improve maternal mortality. The economic wealth of a country and life expectancy at birth are less modifiable through short-term specific interventions. Additionally, it is recommended that country-specific interventions are needed to correct the problem of lack of critical data for analysis.

Satellite-based Assessment of Global Warm Cloud Properties Associated with Aerosols, Atmospheric Stability, and Diurnal Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chin, Mian; Kaufman, Yoram J.

2006-01-01

This study examines variability in marine low cloud properties derived from semi-global observations by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, as linked to the aerosol index (AI) and lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). AI is derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Terra MODIS) sensor and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transportation (GOCART) model, and is used to represent column-integrated aerosol concentrations. LTS is derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and represents the background thermodynamic environment in which the clouds form. Global statistics reveal that cloud droplet size tends to be smallest in polluted (high-AI) and strong inversion (high-LTS) environments. Statistical quantification shows that cloud droplet size is better correlated with AI than it is with LTS. Simultaneously, the cloud liquid water path (CLWP) tends to decrease as AI increases. This correlation does not support the hypothesis or assumption that constant or increased CLWP is associated with high aerosol concentrations. Global variability in corrected cloud albedo (CCA), the product of cloud optical depth and cloud fraction, is very well explained by LTS, while both AI and LTS are needed to explain local variability in CCA. Most of the local correlations between AI and cloud properties are similar to the results from the global statistics, while weak anomalous aerosol-cloud correlations appear locally in the regions where simultaneous high (low) AI and low (high) LTS compensate each other. Daytime diurnal cycles explain additional variability in cloud properties. CCA has the largest diurnal cycle in high-LTS regions. Cloud droplet size and CLWP have weak diurnal cycles that differ between clean and polluted environments. The combined results suggest that investigations of marine low cloud radiative forcing and its relationship to hypothesized aerosol indirect effects must consider the combined effects of aerosols, thermodynamics, and the diurnal cycle.

City scale pollen concentration variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, Michiel; van Vliet, Arnold; Krol, Maarten

2016-04-01

Pollen are emitted in the atmosphere both in the country-side and in cities. Yet the majority of the population is exposed to pollen in cities. Allergic reactions may be induced by short-term exposure to pollen. This raises the question how variable pollen concentration in cities are in temporally and spatially, and how much of the pollen in cities are actually produced in the urban region itself. We built a high resolution (1 × 1 km) pollen dispersion model based on WRF-Chem to study a city's pollen budget and the spatial and temporal variability in concentration. It shows that the concentrations are highly variable, as a result of source distribution, wind direction and boundary layer mixing, as well as the release rate as a function of temperature, turbulence intensity and humidity. Hay Fever Forecasts based on such high resolution emission and physical dispersion modelling surpass traditional hay fever warning methods based on temperature sum methods. The model gives new insights in concentration variability, personal and community level exposure and prevention. The model will be developped into a new forecast tool to serve allergic people to minimize their exposure and reduce nuisance, coast of medication and sick leave. This is an innovative approach in hay fever warning systems.

Effects of Ocean Acidification and Temperature Increases on the Photosynthesis of Tropical Reef Calcified Macroalgae.

PubMed

Scherner, Fernando; Pereira, Cristiano Macedo; Duarte, Gustavo; Horta, Paulo Antunes; E Castro, Clovis Barreira; Barufi, José Bonomi; Pereira, Sonia Maria Barreto

2016-01-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon that is considered an important threat to marine ecosystems. Ocean acidification and increased seawater temperatures are among the consequences of this phenomenon. The comprehension of the effects of these alterations on marine organisms, in particular on calcified macroalgae, is still modest despite its great importance. There are evidences that macroalgae inhabiting highly variable environments are relatively resilient to such changes. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate experimentally the effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification and temperature rises on the photosynthesis of calcified macroalgae inhabiting the intertidal region, a highly variable environment. The experiments were performed in a reef mesocosm in a tropical region on the Brazilian coast, using three species of frondose calcifying macroalgae (Halimeda cuneata, Padina gymnospora, and Tricleocarpa cylindrica) and crustose coralline algae. The acidification experiment consisted of three treatments with pH levels below those occurring in the region (-0.3, -0.6, -0.9). For the temperature experiment, three temperature levels above those occurring naturally in the region (+1, +2, +4°C) were determined. The results of the acidification experiment indicate an increase on the optimum quantum yield by T. cylindrica and a decline of this parameter by coralline algae, although both only occurred at the extreme acidification treatment (-0.9). The energy dissipation mechanisms of these algae were also altered at this extreme condition. Significant effects of the temperature experiment were limited to an enhancement of the photosynthetic performance by H. cuneata although only at a modest temperature increase (+1°C). In general, the results indicate a possible photosynthetic adaptation and/or acclimation of the studied macroalgae to the expected future ocean acidification and temperature rises, as separate factors. Such relative resilience may be a result of the highly variable environment they inhabit.

The skin microbiome in healthy and allergic dogs.

PubMed

Rodrigues Hoffmann, Aline; Patterson, Adam P; Diesel, Alison; Lawhon, Sara D; Ly, Hoai Jaclyn; Elkins Stephenson, Christine; Mansell, Joanne; Steiner, Jörg M; Dowd, Scot E; Olivry, Thierry; Suchodolski, Jan S

2014-01-01

Changes in the microbial populations on the skin of animals have traditionally been evaluated using conventional microbiology techniques. The sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes has revealed that the human skin is inhabited by a highly diverse and variable microbiome that had previously not been demonstrated by culture-based methods. The goals of this study were to describe the microbiome inhabiting different areas of the canine skin, and to compare the skin microbiome of healthy and allergic dogs. DNA extracted from superficial skin swabs from healthy (n = 12) and allergic dogs (n = 6) from different regions of haired skin and mucosal surfaces were used for 454-pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Principal coordinates analysis revealed clustering for the different skin sites across all dogs, with some mucosal sites and the perianal regions clustering separately from the haired skin sites. The rarefaction analysis revealed high individual variability between samples collected from healthy dogs and between the different skin sites. Higher species richness and microbial diversity were observed in the samples from haired skin when compared to mucosal surfaces or mucocutaneous junctions. In all examined regions, the most abundant phylum and family identified in the different regions of skin and mucosal surfaces were Proteobacteria and Oxalobacteriaceae. The skin of allergic dogs had lower species richness when compared to the healthy dogs. The allergic dogs had lower proportions of the Betaproteobacteria Ralstonia spp. when compared to the healthy dogs. The study demonstrates that the skin of dogs is inhabited by much more rich and diverse microbial communities than previously thought using culture-based methods. Our sequence data reveal high individual variability between samples collected from different patients. Differences in species richness was also seen between healthy and allergic dogs, with allergic dogs having lower species richness when compared to healthy dogs.

The Skin Microbiome in Healthy and Allergic Dogs

PubMed Central

Rodrigues Hoffmann, Aline; Patterson, Adam P.; Diesel, Alison; Lawhon, Sara D.; Ly, Hoai Jaclyn; Stephenson, Christine Elkins; Mansell, Joanne; Steiner, Jörg M.; Dowd, Scot E.; Olivry, Thierry; Suchodolski, Jan S.

2014-01-01

Background Changes in the microbial populations on the skin of animals have traditionally been evaluated using conventional microbiology techniques. The sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes has revealed that the human skin is inhabited by a highly diverse and variable microbiome that had previously not been demonstrated by culture-based methods. The goals of this study were to describe the microbiome inhabiting different areas of the canine skin, and to compare the skin microbiome of healthy and allergic dogs. Methodology/Principal Findings DNA extracted from superficial skin swabs from healthy (n = 12) and allergic dogs (n = 6) from different regions of haired skin and mucosal surfaces were used for 454-pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Principal coordinates analysis revealed clustering for the different skin sites across all dogs, with some mucosal sites and the perianal regions clustering separately from the haired skin sites. The rarefaction analysis revealed high individual variability between samples collected from healthy dogs and between the different skin sites. Higher species richness and microbial diversity were observed in the samples from haired skin when compared to mucosal surfaces or mucocutaneous junctions. In all examined regions, the most abundant phylum and family identified in the different regions of skin and mucosal surfaces were Proteobacteria and Oxalobacteriaceae. The skin of allergic dogs had lower species richness when compared to the healthy dogs. The allergic dogs had lower proportions of the Betaproteobacteria Ralstonia spp. when compared to the healthy dogs. Conclusions/Significance The study demonstrates that the skin of dogs is inhabited by much more rich and diverse microbial communities than previously thought using culture-based methods. Our sequence data reveal high individual variability between samples collected from different patients. Differences in species richness was also seen between healthy and allergic dogs, with allergic dogs having lower species richness when compared to healthy dogs. PMID:24421875

Effects of Ocean Acidification and Temperature Increases on the Photosynthesis of Tropical Reef Calcified Macroalgae

PubMed Central

Pereira, Cristiano Macedo; Duarte, Gustavo; Horta, Paulo Antunes; e Castro, Clovis Barreira; Barufi, José Bonomi; Pereira, Sonia Maria Barreto

2016-01-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon that is considered an important threat to marine ecosystems. Ocean acidification and increased seawater temperatures are among the consequences of this phenomenon. The comprehension of the effects of these alterations on marine organisms, in particular on calcified macroalgae, is still modest despite its great importance. There are evidences that macroalgae inhabiting highly variable environments are relatively resilient to such changes. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate experimentally the effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification and temperature rises on the photosynthesis of calcified macroalgae inhabiting the intertidal region, a highly variable environment. The experiments were performed in a reef mesocosm in a tropical region on the Brazilian coast, using three species of frondose calcifying macroalgae (Halimeda cuneata, Padina gymnospora, and Tricleocarpa cylindrica) and crustose coralline algae. The acidification experiment consisted of three treatments with pH levels below those occurring in the region (-0.3, -0.6, -0.9). For the temperature experiment, three temperature levels above those occurring naturally in the region (+1, +2, +4°C) were determined. The results of the acidification experiment indicate an increase on the optimum quantum yield by T. cylindrica and a decline of this parameter by coralline algae, although both only occurred at the extreme acidification treatment (-0.9). The energy dissipation mechanisms of these algae were also altered at this extreme condition. Significant effects of the temperature experiment were limited to an enhancement of the photosynthetic performance by H. cuneata although only at a modest temperature increase (+1°C). In general, the results indicate a possible photosynthetic adaptation and/or acclimation of the studied macroalgae to the expected future ocean acidification and temperature rises, as separate factors. Such relative resilience may be a result of the highly variable environment they inhabit. PMID:27158820

Evaluating a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter snow cover data assimilation method to estimate SWE within a high-resolution hydrologic modeling framework across Western US mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oaida, C. M.; Andreadis, K.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.

2017-12-01

Accurately estimating how much snow water equivalent (SWE) is stored in mountainous regions characterized by complex terrain and snowmelt-driven hydrologic cycles is not only greatly desirable, but also a big challenge. Mountain snowpack exhibits high spatial variability across a broad range of spatial and temporal scales due to a multitude of physical and climatic factors, making it difficult to observe or estimate in its entirety. Combing remotely sensed data and high resolution hydrologic modeling through data assimilation (DA) has the potential to provide a spatially and temporally continuous SWE dataset at horizontal scales that capture sub-grid snow spatial variability and are also relevant to stakeholders such as water resource managers. Here, we present the evaluation of a new snow DA approach that uses a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) in tandem with the Variable Infiltration Capacity macro-scale hydrologic model across the Western United States, at a daily temporal resolution, and a horizontal resolution of 1.75 km x 1.75 km. The LETKF is chosen for its relative simplicity, ease of implementation, and computational efficiency and scalability. The modeling/DA system assimilates daily MODIS Snow Covered Area and Grain Size (MODSCAG) fractional snow cover over, and has been developed to efficiently calculate SWE estimates over extended periods of time and covering large regional-scale areas at relatively high spatial resolution, ultimately producing a snow reanalysis-type dataset. Here we focus on the assessment of SWE produced by the DA scheme over several basins in California's Sierra Nevada Mountain range where Airborne Snow Observatory data is available, during the last five water years (2013-2017), which include both one of the driest and one of the wettest years. Comparison against such a spatially distributed SWE observational product provides a greater understanding of the model's ability to estimate SWE and SWE spatial variability, and highlights under which conditions snow cover DA can add value in estimating SWE.

Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations during the last two millennia in Morocco, inferred from two high resolution δ18O speleothem records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Brahim, Yassine; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Khodri, Myriam; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Cruz, Francisco W.; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cheng, Hai

2017-04-01

Climate projections predict substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. Herein, we present two high resolution and well dated speleothems oxygen isotope (δ18O) records sampled from Chaara and Ifoulki caves (located in Northeastern and Southwestern Morocco respectively) to investigate hydroclimate variations during the last 2000 years. Our results are supported by a monitoring network of δ18O in precipitation from 17 stations in Morocco. The new paleoclimate records are discussed in the light of existing continental and marine paleoclimate proxies in Morocco to identify significant correlations at various lead times with the main reconstructed oceanic and atmospheric variability modes and possible climate teleconnections that have potentially influenced the climate during the last two millennia in Morocco. The results reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords. Evidence of dry conditions exist during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period and the Climate Warm Period (CWP) and humid conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Statistical analyses suggest that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last two millennia. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively. Keywords: Speleothems, δ18O, Morocco, Hydroclimate, AMO, NAO.

Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

PubMed Central

Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

2016-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID:27761304

High levels of diversity characterize mandrill (Mandrillus sphinx) Mhc-DRB sequences.

PubMed

Abbott, Kristin M; Wickings, E Jean; Knapp, Leslie A

2006-08-01

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is highly polymorphic in most primate species studied thus far. The rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) has been studied extensively and the Mhc-DRB region demonstrates variability similar to humans. The extent of MHC diversity is relatively unknown for other Old World monkeys (OWM), especially among genera other than Macaca. A molecular survey of the Mhc-DRB region in mandrills (Mandrillus sphinx) revealed extensive variability, suggesting that other OWMs may also possess high levels of Mhc-DRB polymorphism. In the present study, 33 Mhc-DRB loci were identified from only 13 animals. Eleven were wild-born and presumed to be unrelated and two were captive-born twins. Two to seven different sequences were identified for each individual, suggesting that some mandrills may have as many as four Mhc-DRB loci on a single haplotype. From these sequences, representatives of at least six Mhc-DRB loci or lineages were identified. As observed in other primates, some new lineages may have arisen through the process of gene conversion. These findings indicate that mandrills have Mhc-DRB diversity not unlike rhesus macaques and humans.

Factors associated with the deposition of Cladophora on Lake Michigan beaches in 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Stephen C.; Tucker, Taaja R.; Adams, Jean V.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska

2015-01-01

Deposition of the macroalgae Cladophora spp. was monitored on 18 beaches around Lake Michigan during 2012 at a high temporal frequency. We observed a high degree of spatial variability in Cladophora deposition among beaches on Lake Michigan, even within local regions, with no clear regional pattern in the intensity of Cladophora deposition. A strong seasonal pattern in Cladophora deposition was observed, with the heaviest deposition occurring during mid-summer. Several beaches exhibited high temporal variability in Cladophora deposition over short time scales, suggesting that drifting algal mats may be extremely dynamic in nearshore environments of the Great Lakes. Cladophora deposition on Lake Michigan beaches was primarily related to the presence of nearshore structures, local population density, and nearshore bathymetry. There was relatively little evidence that waves, winds, or currents were associated with Cladophora deposition on beaches, but this may be due to the relatively poor resolution of existing nearshore hydrodynamic data. Developing a predictive understanding of beach-cast Cladophora dynamics in Great Lakes environments may require both intensive Cladophora monitoring and fine-scale local hydrodynamic modeling efforts.

Role of the Soil Thermal Inertia in the short term variability of the surface temperature and consequences for the soil-moisture temperature feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheruy, Frederique; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Ait Mesbah, Sonia; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; Wang, Fuxing

2017-04-01

A simple model based on the surface energy budget at equilibrium is developed to compute the sensitivity of the climatological mean daily temperature and diurnal amplitude to the soil thermal inertia. It gives a conceptual framework to quantity the role of the atmospheric and land surface processes in the surface temperature variability and relies on the diurnal amplitude of the net surface radiation, the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes to the surface temperature and the thermal inertia. The performances of the model are first evaluated with 3D numerical simulations performed with the atmospheric (LMDZ) and land surface (ORCHIDEE) modules of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) climate model. A nudging approach is adopted, it prevents from using time-consuming long-term simulations required to account for the natural variability of the climate and allow to draw conclusion based on short-term (several years) simulations. In the moist regions the diurnal amplitude and the mean surface temperature are controlled by the latent heat flux. In the dry areas, the relevant role of the stability of the boundary layer and of the soil thermal inertia is demonstrated. In these regions, the sensitivity of the surface temperature to the thermal inertia is high, due to the high contribution of the thermal flux to the energy budget. At high latitudes, when the sensitivity of turbulent fluxes is dominated by the day-time sensitivity of the sensible heat flux to the surface temperature and when this later is comparable to the thermal inertia term of the sensitivity equation, the surface temperature is also partially controlled by the thermal inertia which can rely on the snow properties; In the regions where the latent heat flux exhibits a high day-to-day variability, such as transition regions, the thermal inertia has also significant impact on the surface temperature variability . In these not too wet (energy limited) and not too dry (moisture-limited) soil moisture (SM) ''hot spots'', it is generally admitted that the variability of the surface temperature is explained by the soil moisture trough its control on the evaporation. This work suggests that the impact of the soil moisture on the temperature through its impact on the thermal inertia can be as important as its direct impact on the evaporation. Contrarily to the evaporation related soil-moisture temperature negative feedback, the thermal inertia soil-moisture related feedback newly identified by this work is a positive feedback which limits the cooling when the soil moisture increases. These results suggest that uncertainties in the representation of the soil and snow thermal properties can be responsible of significant biases in numerical simulations and emphasize the need to carefully document and evaluate these quantities in the Land Surface Modules implemented in the climate models.

Comparison of Kinematics and Muscle Activation in Free-Weight Back Squat With and Without Elastic Bands.

PubMed

Saeterbakken, Atle H; Andersen, Vidar; van den Tillaar, Roland

2016-04-01

The purpose of the study was to compare kinematic muscle activation when performing 6 repetition maximum (6RM) squats using constant (free weights) or variable resistance (free weights + elastic bands). Twenty recreationally trained women were recruited with 4.6 ± 2.1 years of resistance training experience and a relative strength (6RM/body mass) of 1.1. After a familiarization session identifying the 6RM loads, the participants performed 6RM squats using constant and variable resistance in a randomized order. The total resistance in the variable resistance group was similar to the constant resistance in the presticking region (98%), but greater in the sticking region (105%) and the poststicking region (113%). In addition, the presticking barbell velocity was 21.0% greater using variable than constant resistance, but 22.8% lower in the poststicking region. No significant differences in muscle electromyographic activity, time occurrence, and vertical displacement between the squat modalities were observed, except for higher barbell displacement poststicking using variable resistance. It was concluded that, due to differences in total resistance in the different regions performing variable compared with constant resistance, greater barbell velocity was observed in the presticking region and lower resistance was observed in the poststicking region. However, the extra resistance in the sticking and poststicking regions during the variable resistance modality did not cause increased muscle activity. When performing squats with heavy resistance, the authors recommend using variable resistance, but we suggest increasing the percentage resistance from the elastic bands or using chains.

BONA FIDE, STRONG-VARIABLE GALACTIC LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE STARS ARE FAST ROTATORS: DETECTION OF A HIGH ROTATIONAL VELOCITY IN HR CARINAE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groh, J. H.; Damineli, A.; Moises, A. P.

2009-11-01

We report optical observations of the luminous blue variable (LBV) HR Carinae which show that the star has reached a visual minimum phase in 2009. More importantly, we detected absorptions due to Si IV lambdalambda4088-4116. To match their observed line profiles from 2009 May, a high rotational velocity of v{sub rot} approx = 150 +- 20 km s{sup -1} is needed (assuming an inclination angle of 30 deg.), implying that HR Car rotates at approx =0.88 +- 0.2 of its critical velocity for breakup (v{sub crit}). Our results suggest that fast rotation is typical in all strong-variable, bona fide galacticmore » LBVs, which present S-Dor-type variability. Strong-variable LBVs are located in a well-defined region of the HR diagram during visual minimum (the 'LBV minimum instability strip'). We suggest this region corresponds to where v{sub crit} is reached. To the left of this strip, a forbidden zone with v{sub rot}/v{sub crit}>1 is present, explaining why no LBVs are detected in this zone. Since dormant/ex LBVs like P Cygni and HD 168625 have low v{sub rot}, we propose that LBVs can be separated into two groups: fast-rotating, strong-variable stars showing S-Dor cycles (such as AG Car and HR Car) and slow-rotating stars with much less variability (such as P Cygni and HD 168625). We speculate that supernova (SN) progenitors which had S-Dor cycles before exploding (such as in SN 2001ig, SN 2003bg, and SN 2005gj) could have been fast rotators. We suggest that the potential difficulty of fast-rotating Galactic LBVs to lose angular momentum is additional evidence that such stars could explode during the LBV phase.« less

Utilizing Satellite Precipitation Products to Understand the Link Between Climate Variability and Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.

2015-12-01

Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence rates and to determine which regions of the country are most affected.

Genomic variability of Helicobacter pylori isolates of gastric regions from two Colombian populations

PubMed Central

Matta, Andrés Jenuer; Pazos, Alvaro Jairo; Bustamante-Rengifo, Javier Andrés; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

2017-01-01

AIM To compare the genomic variability and the multiple colonization of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) in patients with chronic gastritis from two Colombian populations with contrast in the risk of developing gastric cancer (GC): Túquerres-Nariño (High risk) and Tumaco-Nariño (Low risk). METHODS Four hundred and nine patients from both genders with dyspeptic symptoms were studied. Seventy-two patients were included in whom H. pylori was isolated from three anatomic regions of the gastric mucosa, (31/206) of the high risk population of GC (Túquerres) and (41/203) of the low risk population of GC (Tumaco). The isolates were genotyped by PCR-RAPD. Genetic diversity between the isolates was evaluated by conglomerates analysis and multiple correspondence analyses. RESULTS The proportion of virulent genotypes of H. pylori was 99% in Túquerres and 94% in Tumaco. The coefficient of similarity of Nei-Li showed greater genetic diversity among isolates of Túquerres (0.13) than those of Tumaco (0.07). After adjusting by age, gender and type of gastritis, the multiple colonization was 1.7 times more frequent in Túquerres than in Tumaco (P = 0.05). CONCLUSION In Túquerres, high risk of GC there was a greater probability of multiple colonization by H. pylori. From the analysis of the results of the PCR-RAPD, it was found higher genetic variability in the isolates of H. pylori in the population of high risk for the development of GC. PMID:28223724

China's water sustainability in the 21st century: a climate informed water risk assessment covering multi-sector water demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Hao, Z.; Dong, L.; Ju, Q.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.

2013-08-01

China is facing a water resources crisis with growing concerns as to the reliable supply of water for agricultural, industrial and domestic needs. High inter-annual rainfall variability and increasing consumptive use across the country exacerbates the situation further and is a constraint on future development. For water sustainability, it is necessary to examine the differences in water demand and supply and their spatio-temporal distribution in order to quantify the dimensions of the water risk. Here, a detailed quantitative assessment of water risk as measured by the distribution of cumulated deficits for China is presented. Considering daily precipitation and temperature variability over fifty years and the current water demands, risk measures are developed to inform county level water deficits that account for both within year and across year variations in climate. We choose political rather than watershed boundaries since economic activity and water use are organized by county and the political process is best informed through that unit. The risk measures highlight North China Plain counties as highly water stressed. Regions with high water stress are typically the regions with high inter-annual variability in rainfall and now have depleted groundwater aquifers. The stress components due to agricultural, industrial and domestic water demands are illustrated separately to assess the vulnerability of particular sectors within the country to provide a basis for targeted policy analysis for reducing water stress.

Wind effect on salt transport variability in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandeep, K. K.; Pant, V.

2017-12-01

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) exhibits large spatial variability in sea surface salinity (SSS) pattern caused by its unique hydrological, meteorological and oceanographical characteristics. This SSS variability is largely controlled by the seasonally reversing monsoon winds and the associated currents. Further, the BoB receives substantial freshwater inputs through excess precipitation over evaporation and river discharge. Rivers like Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi, Krishna, Godavari, and Irawwady discharge annually a freshwater volume in range between 1.5 x 1012 and 1.83 x 1013 m3 into the bay. A major volume of this freshwater input to the bay occurs during the southwest monsoon (June-September) period. In the present study, a relative role of winds in the SSS variability in the bay is investigated by using an eddy-resolving three dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) numerical model. The model is configured with realistic bathymetry, coastline of study region and forced with daily climatology of atmospheric variables. River discharges from the major rivers are distributed in the model grid points representing their respective geographic locations. Salt transport estimate from the model simulation for realistic case are compared with the standard reference datasets. Further, different experiments were carried out with idealized surface wind forcing representing the normal, low, high, and very high wind speed conditions in the bay while retaining the realistic daily varying directions for all the cases. The experimental simulations exhibit distinct dispersal patterns of the freshwater plume and SSS in different experiments in response to the idealized winds. Comparison of the meridional and zonal surface salt transport estimated for each experiment showed strong seasonality with varying magnitude in the bay with a maximum spatial and temporal variability in the western and northern parts of the BoB.

A UV-to-MIR monitoring of DR Tau: Exploring how water vapor in the planet formation region is affected by stellar accretion variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banzatti, A.; Meyer, M. R.; Manara, C. F.

2014-01-01

Young stars are known to show variability due to non-steady mass accretion rate from their circumstellar disks. Accretion flares can produce strong energetic irradiation and heating that may affect the disk in the planet formation region, close to the central star. During an extreme accretion outburst in the young star EX Lupi, the prototype of EXor variables, remarkable changes in molecular gas emission from ∼1 AU in the disk have recently been observed. Here, we focus on water vapor and explore how it is affected by variable accretion luminosity in T Tauri stars. We monitored a young highly variable solar-massmore » star, DR Tau, using simultaneously two high/medium-resolution spectrographs at the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope: VISIR at 12.4 μm to observe water lines from the disk and X-shooter covering from 0.3 to 2.5 μm to constrain the stellar accretion. Three epochs spanning timescales from several days to several weeks were obtained. The accretion luminosity was estimated to change within a factor of ∼2 and no change in water emission was detected at a significant level. In comparison with EX Lupi and EXor outbursts, DR Tau suggests that the less long-lived and weaker variability phenomena typical of T Tauri stars may leave water at planet-forming radii in the disk mostly unaffected. We propose that these systems may provide evidence for two processes that act over different timescales: ultraviolet photochemistry in the disk atmosphere (faster) and heating of the deeper disk layers (slower).« less

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

An inter-decadal increase in summer sea level pressure over the Mongolian region around the early 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haiyan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Li, Xiuzhen; Chen, Ruidan

2018-05-01

The East Asian summer monsoon is affected by processes in the mid-high latitudes in addition to various tropical and subtropical systems. The present study investigates the summer sea level pressure (SLP) variability over northern East Asia (NEA) and emphasizes the closed active center over the Mongolian region. It is found that the seasonal mean Mongolian SLP (MSLP) anomaly is closely connected with the variability of summertime regional synoptic extra-tropical cyclones on longer time scales. A significant inter-decadal increase in the MSLP around the early 1990s has been detected, which is accompanied by a weakening in the activity of regional extra-tropical cyclones. Recent warming over NEA may have a contribution to the inter-decadal change, which features evidently meridional inhomogeneity around 45°N. The inhomogeneous air temperature anomaly distribution results in decreased vertical wind shear, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity over the Mongolian region, and thus inactive regional cyclones and increased MSLP in the latter decade. The associated temperature anomaly distribution may be partly attributed to regional inhomogeneity in cloud and radiation anomalies, and it is further maintained by two positive feedback mechanisms associated with atmospheric internal processes: one via adiabatic heating and the other via horizontal temperature advection.

New insights into the use of stable water isotopes at the northern Antarctic Peninsula as a tool for regional climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandoy, Francisco; Tetzner, Dieter; Meyer, Hanno; Gacitúa, Guisella; Hoffmann, Kirstin; Falk, Ulrike; Lambert, Fabrice; MacDonell, Shelley

2018-03-01

Due to recent atmospheric and oceanic warming, the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most challenging regions of Antarctica to understand in terms of both local- and regional-scale climate signals. Steep topography and a lack of long-term and in situ meteorological observations complicate the extrapolation of existing climate models to the sub-regional scale. Therefore, new techniques must be developed to better understand processes operating in the region. Isotope signals are traditionally related mainly to atmospheric conditions, but a detailed analysis of individual components can give new insight into oceanic and atmospheric processes. This paper aims to use new isotopic records collected from snow and firn cores in conjunction with existing meteorological and oceanic datasets to determine changes at the climatic scale in the northern extent of the Antarctic Peninsula. In particular, a discernible effect of sea ice cover on local temperatures and the expression of climatic modes, especially the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), is demonstrated. In years with a large sea ice extension in winter (negative SAM anomaly), an inversion layer in the lower troposphere develops at the coastal zone. Therefore, an isotope-temperature relationship (δ-T) valid for all periods cannot be obtained, and instead the δ-T depends on the seasonal variability of oceanic conditions. Comparatively, transitional seasons (autumn and spring) have a consistent isotope-temperature gradient of +0.69 ‰ °C-1. As shown by firn core analysis, the near-surface temperature in the northern-most portion of the Antarctic Peninsula shows a decreasing trend (-0.33 °C year-1) between 2008 and 2014. In addition, the deuterium excess (dexcess) is demonstrated to be a reliable indicator of seasonal oceanic conditions, and therefore suitable to improve a firn age model based on seasonal dexcess variability. The annual accumulation rate in this region is highly variable, ranging between 1060 and 2470 kg m-2 year-1 from 2008 to 2014. The combination of isotopic and meteorological data in areas where data exist is key to reconstruct climatic conditions with a high temporal resolution in polar regions where no direct observations exist.

A satellite-based 13-year climatology of net cloud radiative forcing over the Indian monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saud, Trailokya; Dey, Sagnik; Das, Sushant; Dutta, Soumi

2016-12-01

We present a satellite-based 13-year (Mar. 2000-Feb. 2013) climatology of net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) over the Indian monsoon region (0-40°N, 60-100°E) using the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiation data and explained the net CRF variability in terms of cloud properties retrieved by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Mean (± 1σ) seasonal shortwave (SW) CRF values averaged over the region are - 82.7 ± 24.5, - 32.1 ± 12.1, - 17.2 ± 5.3 and - 30.2 ± 16.2 W m- 2 respectively for the monsoon (JJAS), post-monsoon (ON), winter (DJF) and pre-monsoon (MAM) seasons; while the corresponding longwave (LW) CRF values are 53.7 ± 14.2, 27.9 ± 10.0, 15.8 ± 7.0 and 25.2 ± 9.1 W m- 2. Regional analysis reveals the largest (least) negative net CRF over the northeast (northwest) rainfall homogeneous zone throughout the year due to the dominance of optically thick high clouds (low cloud fraction, fc). Mean JJAS fc is found to increase (by > 0.01 per year) over large parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the northwest region. Mean annual net CRF values for cumulus, stratocumulus and stratus (low level), altocumulus, altostratus and nimbostratus (mid-level clouds) and cirrus, cirrostratus and deep-convective (high level) clouds over the Indian monsoon region are estimated to be - 0.8, - 4.7, - 6.9, + 3.3, - 6.3, - 23.3, + 5.4, - 23.3 and - 42.1 W m- 2 respectively. Across a wide range of cloud optical depth (COD) and fc < 0.6, near cancellation of SW cooling by LW warming, is observed for low clouds. Net CRF drops below - 15 W m- 2 for clouds evolving above 400 hPa, mainly in the monsoon season. Our results demonstrate that net CRF variability in the Indian monsoon region can be explained by variability in Cloud Top Pressure (CTP), COD and fc. The study highlights the need for resolving a multi-layer cloud field in the future.

Summer Temperature Extremes in the Northern Rockies: A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction (1670-2014) from the Bighorn Mountains, WY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, A.; Alfaro-Sanchez, R.; Belmecheri, S.; Moore, D. J.; Trouet, V.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has caused global temperatures to rise in recent decades. Temperatures at the regional scale are influenced by various factors including topography, atmospheric circulation, and seasonality that superimpose year-to-year variability on this global warming trend. Here, we develop a tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the northern Rockies in order to investigate the drivers of the year-to-year temperature variability in this region. For this purpose, we sampled 10 sites in the semi-arid Bighorn Mountains, WY and developed two tree-ring width chronologies for differing elevations. The high elevation Picea engelmannii chronology (>2,630m) is positively correlated with July temperature variability, whereas the low elevation (<2,580m) chronology - consisting of Pinus contorta, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Pinus albicaulis - is sensitive to summer precipitation and negatively correlated with June and July temperatures. A reconstruction based on a combination of the two chronologies explains 30% of the variance in regional June and July temperatures over the instrumental period, covers the period 1670-2014, and is representative for the central United States and southern Canada region. Our reconstruction shows significantly lower summer temperatures in the year following the 16 largest tropical eruptions from 1670 to the present. The reconstruction further captures the high summer temperatures during the 1930s dust bowl era and shows a steep increase in variance in the late 20th century. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific, which suggests an impact of an amplified meridional flow on northern Rockies summer temperatures.

Prospective comparison of speckle tracking longitudinal bidimensional strain between two vendors.

PubMed

Castel, Anne-Laure; Szymanski, Catherine; Delelis, François; Levy, Franck; Menet, Aymeric; Mailliet, Amandine; Marotte, Nathalie; Graux, Pierre; Tribouilloy, Christophe; Maréchaux, Sylvestre

2014-02-01

Speckle tracking is a relatively new, largely angle-independent technique used for the evaluation of myocardial longitudinal strain (LS). However, significant differences have been reported between LS values obtained by speckle tracking with the first generation of software products. To compare LS values obtained with the most recently released equipment from two manufacturers. Systematic scanning with head-to-head acquisition with no modification of the patient's position was performed in 64 patients with equipment from two different manufacturers, with subsequent off-line post-processing for speckle tracking LS assessment (Philips QLAB 9.0 and General Electric [GE] EchoPAC BT12). The interobserver variability of each software product was tested on a randomly selected set of 20 echocardiograms from the study population. GE and Philips interobserver coefficients of variation (CVs) for global LS (GLS) were 6.63% and 5.87%, respectively, indicating good reproducibility. Reproducibility was very variable for regional and segmental LS values, with CVs ranging from 7.58% to 49.21% with both software products. The concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) between GLS values was high at 0.95, indicating substantial agreement between the two methods. While good agreement was observed between midwall and apical regional strains with the two software products, basal regional strains were poorly correlated. The agreement between the two software products at a segmental level was very variable; the highest correlation was obtained for the apical cap (CCC 0.90) and the poorest for basal segments (CCC range 0.31-0.56). A high level of agreement and reproducibility for global but not for basal regional or segmental LS was found with two vendor-dependent software products. This finding may help to reinforce clinical acceptance of GLS in everyday clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

B-Bolivia, an Allele of the Maize b1 Gene with Variable Expression, Contains a High Copy Retrotransposon-Related Sequence Immediately Upstream1

PubMed Central

Selinger, David A.; Chandler, Vicki L.

2001-01-01

The maize (Zea mays) b1 gene encodes a transcription factor that regulates the anthocyanin pigment pathway. Of the b1 alleles with distinct tissue-specific expression, B-Peru and B-Bolivia are the only alleles that confer seed pigmentation. B-Bolivia produces variable and weaker seed expression but darker, more regular plant expression relative to B-Peru. Our experiments demonstrated that B-Bolivia is not expressed in the seed when transmitted through the male. When transmitted through the female the proportion of kernels pigmented and the intensity of pigment varied. Molecular characterization of B-Bolivia demonstrated that it shares the first 530 bp of the upstream region with B-Peru, a region sufficient for seed expression. Immediately upstream of 530 bp, B-Bolivia is completely divergent from B-Peru. These sequences share sequence similarity to retrotransposons. Transient expression assays of various promoter constructs identified a 33-bp region in B-Bolivia that can account for the reduced aleurone pigment amounts (40%) observed with B-Bolivia relative to B-Peru. Transgenic plants carrying the B-Bolivia promoter proximal region produced pigmented seeds. Similar to native B-Bolivia, some transgene loci are variably expressed in seeds. In contrast to native B-Bolivia, the transgene loci are expressed in seeds when transmitted through both the male and female. Some transgenic lines produced pigment in vegetative tissues, but the tissue-specificity was different from B-Bolivia, suggesting the introduced sequences do not contain the B-Bolivia plant-specific regulatory sequences. We hypothesize that the chromatin context of the B-Bolivia allele controls its epigenetic seed expression properties, which could be influenced by the adjacent highly repeated retrotransposon sequence. PMID:11244116

Vertical Distribution and Columnar Optical Properties of Springtime Biomass-Burning Aerosols over Northern Indochina during the 7-SEAS/BASELInE field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N. H.; Wang, S. H.; Welton, E. J.; Holben, B. N.; Tsay, S. C.; Giles, D. M.; Stewart, S. A.; Janjai, S.; Anh, N. X.; Hsiao, T. C.; Chen, W. N.; Lin, T. H.; Buntoung, S.; Chantara, S.; Wiriya, W.

2015-12-01

In this study, the aerosol optical properties and vertical distributions in major biomass-burning emission area of northern Indochina were investigated using ground-based remote sensing (i.e., four Sun-sky radiometers and one lidar) during the Seven South East Asian Studies/Biomass-burning Aerosols & Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles & Interactions Experiment conducted during spring 2014. Despite the high spatial variability of the aerosol optical depth (AOD; which at 500 nm ranged from 0.75 to 1.37 depending on the site), the temporal variation of the daily AOD demonstrated a consistent pattern among the observed sites, suggesting the presence of widespread smoke haze over the region. Smoke particles were characterized as small (Ångström exponent at 440-870 nm of 1.72 and fine mode fraction of 0.96), strongly absorbing (single-scattering albedo at 440 nm of 0.88), mixture of black and brown carbon particles (absorption Ångström exponent at 440-870 nm of 1.5) suspended within the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke plumes driven by the PBL dynamics in the mountainous region reached as high as 5 km above sea level; these plumes subsequently spread out by westerly winds over northern Vietnam, southern China, and the neighboring South China Sea. Moreover, the analysis of diurnal variability of aerosol loading and optical properties as well as vertical profile in relation to PBL development, fire intensity, and aerosol mixing showed that various sites exhibited different variability based on meteorological conditions, fuel type, site elevation, and proximity to biomass-burning sources. These local factors influence the aerosol characteristics in the region and distinguish northern Indochina smoke from other biomass-burning regions in the world.

Online Simulations of Global Aerosol Distributions in the NASA GEOS-4 Model and Comparisons to Satellite and Ground-Based Aerosol Optical Depth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, Peter; daSilva, Arlindo; Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas

2010-01-01

We have implemented a module for tropospheric aerosols (GO CART) online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 model and simulated global aerosol distributions for the period 2000-2006. The new online system offers several advantages over the previous offline version, providing a platform for aerosol data assimilation, aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction studies, and short-range chemical weather forecasting and climate prediction. We introduce as well a methodology for sampling model output consistently with satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals to facilitate model-satellite comparison. Our results are similar to the offline GOCART model and to the models participating in the AeroCom intercomparison. The simulated AOT has similar seasonal and regional variability and magnitude to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations. The model AOT and Angstrom parameter are consistently low relative to AERONET in biomass-burning-dominated regions, where emissions appear to be underestimated, consistent with the results of the offline GOCART model. In contrast, the model AOT is biased high in sulfate-dominated regions of North America and Europe. Our model-satellite comparison methodology shows that diurnal variability in aerosol loading is unimportant compared to sampling the model where the satellite has cloud-free observations, particularly in sulfate-dominated regions. Simulated sea salt burden and optical thickness are high by a factor of 2-3 relative to other models, and agreement between model and satellite over-ocean AOT is improved by reducing the model sea salt burden by a factor of 2. The best agreement in both AOT magnitude and variability occurs immediately downwind of the Saharan dust plume.

Temporal and spatial changes in plankton respiration and biomass in the Canary Islands region: the effect of mesoscale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arístegui, Javier; Montero, María F.

2005-02-01

The temporal and spatial variabilities in the abundance and respiratory activity of plankton communities (<200 μm) were studied during three seasonal cruises around Gran Canaria Island (Canary Islands), a region of high mesoscale variability. Marked seasonal changes in respiratory activity, plankton community structure, and the ratio of heterotrophic to autotrophic biomass can be largely explained by hydrographic changes at the mesoscale level. Wind/current shearing at the flanks of the island enhances plankton respiration, presumably as the consequence of an increase in turbulence. Counter-paired cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies generated downstream of the island act as a two-way biological pump, increasing plankton production by nutrient pumping into the euphotic zone and accelerating the transport of organic matter into the aphotic zone, respectively. Coastal upwelling waters invading the Canary region in the form of filaments can transport either water with low plankton respiration and large phytoplankton cells or water with high respiratory rates associated with small cells. Plankton respiration was closely related to the abundance of Synechococcus type cyanobacteria and heterotrophic nanoflagellates during the three periods, but was only correlated with chlorophyll during the most fertile season, suggesting that respiration was mainly linked to microbial food web processes. Size-fractionated studies showed that 51-67% of the respiratory activity was due to picoplankton cells (<2 μm). Respiration rates (average values: 113±18 to 187±87 mmol C m -2 d -1) matched primary production rates during the fertile period, but were up to one order of magnitude higher during the rest of the year. Substantial inputs of organic matter from the coastal upwelling would be necessary to balance the large annual heterotrophic deficit in the region of study.

High-frequency expression of a conserved kappa light-chain variable-region gene in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kipps, T.J.; Fong, S.; Tomhave, E.

Malignant B lymphocytes from several patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) were examined for reactivity with murine monoclonal antibody 17.109. This antibody, prepared against the rheumatoid factor (RF) paraprotein Sie, recognizes a cross reactive idiotype on 48% of human IgM RF paraproteins, but does not react with IgM paraproteins without RF activity or substantially with normal pooled immunoglobulin. The 17.109-reactive idiotype is a marker for a kappa III variable-region gene, designated V/sub kappa/RF, that is conserved in outbred human populations. In a limited study of 31 CLL patients, the leukemic cells from 5 of 20 patients with kappa light chain-expressingmore » CLL were recognized by the 17.109 monoclonal antibody. Despite having malignant cells specifically reactive with this antibody, patients with 17.109-positive CLL did not have elevated serum levels of circulating antibody bearing 17.109-reactive determinants. Total RNAs isolated from the CLL B lymphocytes, or from hybridomas produced by fusing the CLL cells with the WI-L2-729-HF/sub 2/ cell line, were fractionated electrophoretically and examined by blot hybridization. Under stringent hybridization conditions capable of discerning a single base-pair mismatch, RNA from the 17.109-idiotype-positive CLL cells hybridized to synthetic oligonucleotide probes corresponding to framework and complementary-determining regions in the V/sub kappa/RF gene. The high frequency of the 17.109-associated idiotype and the V/sub kappa/RF gene in CLL suggests that the disease may arise from B lymphocytes that express a restricted set of inherited immunoglobulin variable-region genes with little or no somatic mutation.« less

A High-Resolution Speleothem Record From Florida of Atmospheric Teleconnections Since 1,500 Years Ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polk, J. S.; van Beynen, P.; Asmerom, Y.

2008-12-01

Understanding atmospheric teleconnections between tropical, subtropical, and higher-latitude regions of the North Atlantic Ocean is necessary to better evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Here, we present a precisely dated, high- resolution speleothem record of stable isotopes and trace elements from Florida spanning the last 1,500 years. By using a multi-proxy approach, the different climatic influences were deconvolved, including the NAO, ENSO, PDO, and ITCZ, which all can affect our region. Further comparison using time-series analysis between our data and other high-resolution records covering this same period reveal differing influences of these teleconnections on geographic regions. Our record shows both the influence of changing rainfall above the cave and the influence of sea surface temperatures on atmospheric convection caused by atmospheric-oceanic variability over time.

A south equatorial African precipitation dipole and the associated atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dezfuli, A. K.; Zaitchik, B.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2013-12-01

South Equatorial Africa (SEA) is a climatically diverse region that includes a dramatic topographic and vegetation contrast between the lowland, humid Congo basin to the west and the East African Plateau to the east. Due to lack of conventional weather data and a tendency for researchers to treat East and western Africa as separate regions, dynamics of the atmospheric water cycle across SEA have received relatively little attention, particularly at subseasonal timescales. Both western and eastern sectors of SEA are affected by large-scale drivers of the water cycle associated with Atlantic variability (western sector), Indian Ocean variability (eastern sector) and Pacific variability (both sectors). However, a specific characteristic of SEA is strong heterogeneity in interannual rainfall variability that cannot be explained by large-scale climatic phenomena. For this reason, this study examines regional climate dynamics on daily time-scale with a focus on the role that the abrupt topographic contrast between the lowland Congo and the East African highlands plays in driving rainfall behavior on short timescales. Analysis of daily precipitation data during November-March reveals a zonally-oriented dipole mode over SEA that explains the leading pattern of weather-scale precipitation variability in the region. The separating longitude of the two poles is coincident with the zonal variation of topography. An anomalous counter-clockwise atmospheric circulation associated with the dipole mode appears over the entire SEA. The circulation is triggered by its low-level westerly component, which is in turn generated by an interhemispheric pressure gradient. These enhanced westerlies hit the East African highlands and produce topographically-driven low-level convergence and convection that further intensifies the circulation. Recent studies have shown that under climate change the position and intensity of subtropical highs in both hemispheres and the intensity of precipitation over equatorial Africa are projected to change. Both of these trends have implications for the manner in which large-scale dynamics will interact with regional topography, affecting the intensity and frequency of the dipole mode characterized in this study and the occurrence of extreme wet and dry spells in the region.

Modelling social vulnerability in sub-Saharan West Africa using a geographical information system

PubMed Central

Arokoyu, Samuel B.

2015-01-01

In recent times, disasters and risk management have gained significant attention, especially with increasing awareness of the risks and increasing impact of natural and other hazards especially in the developing world. Vulnerability, the potential for loss of life or property from disaster, has biophysical or social dimensions. Social vulnerability relates to societal attributes which has negative impacts on disaster outcomes. This study sought to develop a spatially explicit index of social vulnerability, thus addressing the dearth of research in this area in sub-Saharan Africa. Nineteen variables were identified covering various aspects. Descriptive analysis of these variables revealed high heterogeneity across the South West region of Nigeria for both the state and the local government areas (LGAs). Feature identification using correlation analysis identified six important variables. Factor analysis identified two dimensions, namely accessibility and socioeconomic conditions, from this subset. A social vulnerability index (SoVI) showed that Ondo and Ekiti have more vulnerable LGAs than other states in the region. About 50% of the LGAs in Osun and Ogun have a relatively low social vulnerability. Distribution of the SoVI shows that there are great differences within states as well as across regions. Scores of population density, disability and poverty have a high margin of error in relation to mean state scores. The study showed that with a geographical information system there are opportunities to model social vulnerability and monitor its evolution and dynamics across the continent.

Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

2014-12-01

Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

Reconstructing the 20th century high-resolution climate of the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinapoli, Steven M.; Misra, Vasubandhu

2012-10-01

We dynamically downscale the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) to a 10-km grid resolution from 1901 to 2008 over the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico using the Regional Spectral Model. The downscaled data set, which we call theFlorida Climate Institute-Florida State University Land-Atmosphere Reanalysis for theSoutheastern United States at 10-km resolution (FLAReS1.0), will facilitate the study of the effects of low-frequency climate variability and major historical climate events on local hydrology and agriculture. To determine the suitability of the FLAReS1.0 downscaled data set for any subsequent applied climate studies, we compare the annual, seasonal, and diurnal variability of temperature and precipitation in the model to various observation data sets. In addition, we examine the model's depiction of several meteorological phenomena that affect the climate of the region, including extreme cold waves, summer sea breezes and associated convective activity, tropical cyclone landfalls, and midlatitude frontal systems. Our results show that temperature and precipitation variability are well-represented by FLAReS1.0 on most time scales, although systematic biases do exist in the data. FLAReS1.0 accurately portrays some of the major weather phenomena in the region, but the severity of extreme weather events is generally underestimated. The high resolution of FLAReS1.0 makes it more suitable for local climate studies than the coarser 20CR.

Synoptic-scale variability of arctic gravity wave activity during summer and potential impacts on the high latitude middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerrard, Andrew John

Although the role of gravity waves in the global atmospheric circulation is generally understood, discussion of synoptic gravity wave activity, especially pertaining to high latitude summer environments, is lacking in the literature. Tropospherically generated gravity waves greatly contribute to the zonal drag necessary to induce meridional outflow and subsequent upwelling observed in the adiabatically cooled summer mesosphere, ultimately resulting in an environment conducive to mesospheric cloud formation. However, the very gravity wave activity responsible for this induced cooling is also believed to be a major source of variability on mesospheric clouds over shorter time scales, and this topic should be of considerable interest if such clouds are to be used as tracers of the global climate. It is therefore the purpose of this thesis to explore high latitude synoptic gravity wave activity and ultimately seek an understanding of the associated influence on overlaying summer mesospheric clouds. Another goal is to better understand and account for potential variability in high latitude middle and upper atmospheric measurements that can be directly associated with "weather conditions" at lower altitudes. These endeavors are addressed through Rayleigh/aerosol lidar data obtained from the ARCtic LIdar TEchnology (ARCLITE) facility located at Sondrestrom, Greenland (67°N, 310°E), global tropospheric and stratospheric analyses and forecasts, and the Gravity-wave Regional Or Global RAy Tracer (GROGRAT) model. In this study we are able to show that (a) the upper stratospheric gravity wave strength and the brightness of overlaying mesospheric clouds, as measured by representative field proxies, are negatively correlated over time scales of less than a day, (b) such upper stratospheric gravity wave variability is inversely related to mesospheric cloud variability on time scales of ˜1 to 4 hours, (c) gravity wave hindcasts faithfully reproduce experimental lidar observations taken over the month of August 1996, (d) the observed upper stratospheric gravity wave activity is shown to originate from regionalized, non-orographic sources in the troposphere, (e) such gravity wave activity can propagate through the middle atmosphere, potentially impacting overlaying mesospheric clouds, and (f) the forecasting of such upper stratospheric gravity wave activity, and therefore the corresponding mesospheric cloud activity, is feasible. In conclusion, the results herein provide additional evidence of gravity wave influence on mesospheric clouds, a step towards the forecasting of regional gravity wave activity, and ultimately a better understanding of synoptic gravity wave activity at high latitudes.

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories

Treesearch

Narasimhan K. Larkin; Sean M. Raffuse; Tara M. Strand

2014-01-01

Emissions from wildland fire are both highly variable and highly uncertain over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Wildland fire emissions change considerably due to fluctuations from year to year with overall fire season severity, from season to season as different regions pass in and out of wildfire and prescribed fire periods, and from day to day as...

The Analysis on Sport Attitudes of Students at High School Education in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atalay, Ahmet

2016-01-01

The research objective is to determine different variables on sport attitudes of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th grade high school students throughout Turkey. Data were collected using face to face survey method with students studying in 21 provinces within seven different geographical regions of Turkey. 5862 randomized students are selected throughout…

High spatial variability in biogeochemical rates and microbial communities across Louisiana salt marsh landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, B. J.; Chelsky, A.; Bernhard, A. E.; Giblin, A. E.

2017-12-01

Salt marshes are important sites for retention and transformation of carbon and nutrients. Much of our current marsh biogeochemistry knowledge is based on sampling at times and in locations that are convenient, most often vegetated marsh platforms during low tide. Wetland loss rates are high in many coastal regions including Louisiana which has the highest loss rates in the US. This loss not only reduces total marsh area but also changes the relative allocation of subhabitats in the remaining marsh. Climate and other anthropogenic changes lead to further changes including inundation patterns, redox conditions, salinity regimes, and shifts in vegetation patterns across marsh landscapes. We present results from a series of studies examining biogeochemical rates, microbial communities, and soil properties along multiple edge to interior transects within Spartina alterniflora across the Louisiana coast; between expanding patches of Avicennia germinans and adjacent S. alterniflora marshes; in soils associated with the four most common Louisiana salt marsh plants species; and across six different marsh subhabitats. Spartina alterniflora marsh biogeochemistry and microbial populations display high spatial variability related to variability in soil properties which appear to be, at least in part, regulated by differences in elevation, hydrology, and redox conditions. Differences in rates between soils associated with different vegetation types were also related to soil properties with S. alterniflora soils often yielding the lowest rates. Biogeochemical process rates vary significantly across marsh subhabitats with individual process rates differing in their hotspot habitat(s) across the marsh. Distinct spatial patterns may influence the roles that marshes play in retaining and transforming nutrients in coastal regions and highlight the importance of incorporating spatial sampling when scaling up plot level measurements to landscape or regional scales.

Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phung, Dung; Huang, Cunrui; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Nguyen, Minh; Nguyen, Nga Huy; Manh, Cuong Do; Nguyen, Trung Hieu

2015-09-01

The Mekong Delta is vulnerable to changes in climate and hydrological events which alter environmental conditions, resulting in increased risk of waterborne diseases. Research exploring the association between climate factors and diarrhoea, the most frequent waterborne disease in Mekong Delta region, is sparse. This study evaluated the climate-diarrhoea association in Can Tho city, a typical Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. Climate data (temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, and weekly counts of diarrhoea visits were obtained from Can Tho Preventive Medicine Centre from 2004 to 2011. Analysis of climate and health variables was carried out using spline function to adjust for seasonal and long-term trends of variables. A distributed lag model was used to investigate possible delayed effects of climate variables on diarrhoea (considering 0-4 week lag periods), then the multivariate Poisson regression was used to examine any potential association between climate factors and diarrhoea. The results indicated that the diarrhoea incidence peaked within the period August-October annually. Significant positive associations were found between increased diarrhoea and high temperature at 4 weeks prior to the date of hospital visits (IRR = 1.07; 95 % CI = 1.04-1.08), high relative humidity (IRR = 1.13; 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15) and high (>90th percentile) cumulative rainfall (IRR = 1.05; 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08). The association between climate factors and diarrhoea was stronger in rural than urban areas. These findings in the context of the projected changes of climate conditions suggest that climate change will have important implications for residential health in Mekong Delta region.

Dryline on 22 May 2002 During IHOP: Convective Scale Measurements at the Profiling Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demoz, Belay; Flamant, Cyrille; Miller, David; Evans, Keith; Fabry, Federic; DiGirolamo, Paolo; Whiteman, David; Geerts, Bart; Weckwerth, Tammy; Brown, William

2004-01-01

A unique set of measurements of wind, water vapor mixing ratio and boundary layer height variability was observed during the first MOP dryline mission of 22 May 2002. Water vapor mixing ratio from the Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL), high-resolution profiles of aerosol backscatter from the HARLIE and wind profiles from the GLOW are combined with the vertical velocity derived from the NCAR/ISS/MAPR and the high-resolution FMCW radar to reveal the convective variability of the cumulus cloud-topped boundary layer. A combined analysis of the in-situ and remote sensing data from aircraft, radiosonde, lidars, and radars reveals moisture variability within boundary layer updraft and downdraft regions as well as characterizes the boundary layer height variability in the dry and moist sides of the dryline. The profiler site measurements will be tied to aircraft data to reveal the relative intensity and location of these updrafts to the dry line. This study provides unprecedented high temporal and spatial resolution measurements of wind, moisture and backscatter within a dryline and the associated convective boundary layer.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-01-01

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077

Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tam, A.; Jain, M.

2016-12-01

This research includes two projects pertaining to agricultural systems' adaption to climate change. The first research project focuses on the wheat yielding regions of India. Wheat is a major staple crop and many rural households and smallholder farmers rely on crop yields for survival. We examine the impacts of weather variability and groundwater depletion on agricultural systems, using geospatial analysis and satellite-based analysis and household-based and census data sets. We use these methods to estimate the crop yields and identify what factors are associated with low versus high yielding regions. This can help identify strategies that should be further promoted to increase crop yields. The second research project is a literature review. We conduct a meta-analysis and synthetic review on literature about agricultural adaptation to climate change. We sort through numerous articles to identify and examine articles that associate socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors to farmers' adaption to climate change. Our preliminary results show that researchers tend to associate few factors to a farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and most of the research conducted is concentrated in North America, whereas tropical regions that are highly vulnerable to weather variability are underrepresented by literature. There are no conclusive results in both research projects as of so far.

A Comparison of Paleomagnetic Secular Variation during MIS 7-10 between the Bering Sea (IODP Ex. 323) and North Atlantic Ocean (ODP Leg 172): Implications for the space/time pattern of field and environmental variability (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lund, S.; Okada, M.; Acton, G.; Clement, B. M.; Stoner, J. S.; Platzman, E. S.

2013-12-01

Detailed records of Brunhes paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 7-10 have been recovered from four IODP Ex. 323 sites in the Bering Sea (U1339, U1343-U1345) and four ODP Leg 172 sites from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean (1060-1063). Reproducible records of PSV (both directions and paleointensity) have been recovered from three or more holes at each site and correlated among the four independent sites in each region. These PSV records provide an unprecedented database for considering patterns of long-term secular variation and evidence for excursional field behavior on a larger than individual regional scale. We will present reproducible evidence for sustained long-term secular variation in each region and assess the extent to which they may be interrelated. We have identified the times of magnetic field excursions 7α, 7β, 8α, 9α, and 9β in the Atlantic records and correlated those times to the Bering Sea records. There are no true excursions in the Bering Sea at those times, but several of these intervals mark the most anomalous field behavior in the Bering Sea during MIS 7-10. In both regions, the PSV also serves as a high-resolution chronostratigraphic tool for regional correlation of environmental variability. Both regions show clear, reproducible evidence among the sites for synchronous millennial-scale environmental variability that has not been diagnosed previously.

The USH2A c.2299delG mutation: dating its common origin in a Southern European population

PubMed Central

Aller, Elena; Larrieu, Lise; Jaijo, Teresa; Baux, David; Espinós, Carmen; González-Candelas, Fernando; Nájera, Carmen; Palau, Francesc; Claustres, Mireille; Roux, Anne-Françoise; Millán, José M

2010-01-01

Usher syndrome type II is the most common form of Usher syndrome. USH2A is the main responsible gene of the three known to be disease causing. It encodes two isoforms of the protein usherin. This protein is part of an interactome that has an essential role in the development and function of inner ear hair cells and photoreceptors. The gene contains 72 exons spanning over a region of 800 kb. Although numerous mutations have been described, the c.2299delG mutation is the most prevalent in several populations. Its ancestral origin was previously suggested after the identification of a common core haplotype restricted to 250 kb in the 5′ region that encodes the short usherin isoform. By extending the haplotype analysis over the 800 kb region of the USH2A gene with a total of 14 intragenic single nucleotide polymorphisms, we have been able to define 10 different c.2299delG haplotypes, showing high variability but preserving the previously described core haplotype. An exhaustive c.2299delG/control haplotype study suggests that the major source of variability in the USH2A gene is recombination. Furthermore, we have evidenced twice the amount of recombination hotspots located in the 500 kb region that covers the 3′ end of the gene, explaining the higher variability observed in this region when compared with the 250 kb of the 5′ region. Our data confirm the common ancestral origin of the c.2299delG mutation. PMID:20145675

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Present and future ecological niche modeling of garter snake species from the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

PubMed Central

García-Vázquez, Uri; D’Addario, Maristella

2018-01-01

Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB. PMID:29666767

Expression and Functional Properties of an Anti-Triazophos High-Affinity Single-Chain Variable Fragment Antibody with Specific Lambda Light Chain

PubMed Central

Liu, Rui; Liang, Xiao; Xiang, Dandan; Guo, Yirong; Liu, Yihua; Zhu, Guonian

2016-01-01

Triazophos is a widely used organophosphorous insecticide that has potentially adverse effects to organisms. In the present study, a high-affinity single-chain variable fragment (scFv) antibody with specific lambda light chain was developed for residue monitoring. First, the specific variable regions were correctly amplified from a hybridoma cell line 8C10 that secreted monoclonal antibody (mAb) against triazophos. The regions were then assembled as scFv via splicing by overlap extension polymerase chain reaction. Subsequently, the recombinant anti-triazophos scFv-8C10 was successfully expressed in Escherichia coli strain HB2151 in soluble form, purified through immobilized metal ion affinity chromatography, and verified via Western blot and peptide mass fingerprinting analyses. Afterward, an indirect competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was established based on the purified anti-triazophos scFv-8C10 antibody. The assay exhibited properties similar to those based on the parent mAb, with a high sensitivity (IC50 of 1.73 ng/mL) to triazophos and no cross reaction for other organophosphorus pesticides; it was reliable in detecting triazophos residues in spiked water samples. Moreover, kinetic measurement using a surface plasmon resonance biosensor indicated that the purified scFv-8C10 antibody had a high affinity of 1.8 × 10−10 M and exhibited good binding stability. Results indicated that the recombinant high-affinity scFv-8C10 antibody was an effective detection material that would be promising for monitoring triazophos residues in environment samples. PMID:27338340

Bacterial and Archaeal Communities Variability Associated with Upwelling and Anthropogenic Pressures in the Protection Area of Arraial do Cabo (Cabo Frio region - RJ).

PubMed

Coelho-Souza, Sergio A; Araújo, Fábio V; Cury, Juliano C; Jesus, Hugo E; Pereira, Gilberto C; Guimarães, Jean R D; Peixoto, Raquel S; Dávila, Alberto M R; Rosado, Alexandre S

2015-09-01

Upwelling systems contain a high diversity of pelagic microorganisms and their composition and activity are defined by factors like temperature and nutrient concentration. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) technique was used to verify the spatial and temporal genetic variability of Bacteria and Archaea in two stations of the Arraial do Cabo coastal region, one under upwelling pressure and another under anthropogenic pressure. In addition, biotic and abiotic variables were measured in surface and deep waters from three other stations between these stations. Six samplings were done during a year and adequately represented the degrees of upwelling and anthropogenic pressures to the system. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed negative correlations between the concentrations of ammonia and phosphorous with prokaryotic secondary production and the total heterotrophic bacteria. PCA also showed negative correlation between temperature and the abundance of prokaryotic cells. Bacterial and archaeal compositions were changeable as were the oceanographic conditions, and upwelling had a regional pressure while anthropogenic pressure was punctual. We suggest that the measurement of prokaryotic secondary production was associated with both Bacteria and Archaea activities, and that substrate availability and temperature determine nutrients cycling.

Development of a drought forecasting model for the Asia-Pacific region using remote sensing and climate data: Focusing on Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhee, Jinyoung; Kim, Gayoung; Im, Jungho

2017-04-01

Three regions of Indonesia with different rainfall characteristics were chosen to develop drought forecast models based on machine learning. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) was selected as the target variable. The models' forecast skill was compared to the skill of long-range climate forecast models in terms of drought accuracy and regression mean absolute error (MAE). Indonesian droughts are known to be related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability despite of regional differences as well as monsoon, local sea surface temperature (SST), other large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and local factors including topography and elevation. Machine learning models are thus to enhance drought forecast skill by combining local and remote SST and remote sensing information reflecting initial drought conditions to the long-range climate forecast model results. A total of 126 machine learning models were developed for the three regions of West Java (JB), West Sumatra (SB), and Gorontalo (GO) and six long-range climate forecast models of MSC_CanCM3, MSC_CanCM4, NCEP, NASA, PNU, POAMA as well as one climatology model based on remote sensing precipitation data, and 1 to 6-month lead times. When compared the results between the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models, West Java and Gorontalo regions showed similar characteristics in terms of drought accuracy. Drought accuracy of the long-range climate forecast models were generally higher than the machine learning models with short lead times but the opposite appeared for longer lead times. For West Sumatra, however, the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models showed similar drought accuracy. The machine learning models showed smaller regression errors for all three regions especially with longer lead times. Among the three regions, the machine learning models developed for Gorontalo showed the highest drought accuracy and the lowest regression error. West Java showed higher drought accuracy compared to West Sumatra, while West Sumatra showed lower regression error compared to West Java. The lower error in West Sumatra may be because of the smaller sample size used for training and evaluation for the region. Regional differences of forecast skill are determined by the effect of ENSO and the following forecast skill of the long-range climate forecast models. While shown somewhat high in West Sumatra, relative importance of remote sensing variables was mostly low in most cases. High importance of the variables based on long-range climate forecast models indicates that the forecast skill of the machine learning models are mostly determined by the forecast skill of the climate models.

Dynamic Resting-State Functional Connectivity in Major Depression.

PubMed

Kaiser, Roselinde H; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Dillon, Daniel G; Goer, Franziska; Beltzer, Miranda; Minkel, Jared; Smoski, Moria; Dichter, Gabriel; Pizzagalli, Diego A

2016-06-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by abnormal resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC), especially in medial prefrontal cortical (MPFC) regions of the default network. However, prior research in MDD has not examined dynamic changes in functional connectivity as networks form, interact, and dissolve over time. We compared unmedicated individuals with MDD (n=100) to control participants (n=109) on dynamic RSFC (operationalized as SD in RSFC over a series of sliding windows) of an MPFC seed region during a resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging scan. Among participants with MDD, we also investigated the relationship between symptom severity and RSFC. Secondary analyses probed the association between dynamic RSFC and rumination. Results showed that individuals with MDD were characterized by decreased dynamic (less variable) RSFC between MPFC and regions of parahippocampal gyrus within the default network, a pattern related to sustained positive connectivity between these regions across sliding windows. In contrast, the MDD group exhibited increased dynamic (more variable) RSFC between MPFC and regions of insula, and higher severity of depression was related to increased dynamic RSFC between MPFC and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. These patterns of highly variable RSFC were related to greater frequency of strong positive and negative correlations in activity across sliding windows. Secondary analyses indicated that increased dynamic RSFC between MPFC and insula was related to higher levels of recent rumination. These findings provide initial evidence that depression, and ruminative thinking in depression, are related to abnormal patterns of fluctuating communication among brain systems involved in regulating attention and self-referential thinking.

Brain noise is task dependent and region specific.

PubMed

Misić, Bratislav; Mills, Travis; Taylor, Margot J; McIntosh, Anthony R

2010-11-01

The emerging organization of anatomical and functional connections during human brain development is thought to facilitate global integration of information. Recent empirical and computational studies have shown that this enhanced capacity for information processing enables a diversified dynamic repertoire that manifests in neural activity as irregularity and noise. However, transient functional networks unfold over multiple time, scales and the embedding of a particular region depends not only on development, but also on the manner in which sensory and cognitive systems are engaged. Here we show that noise is a facet of neural activity that is also sensitive to the task context and is highly region specific. Children (6-16 yr) and adults (20-41 yr) performed a one-back face recognition task with inverted and upright faces. Neuromagnetic activity was estimated at several hundred sources in the brain by applying a beamforming technique to the magnetoencephalogram (MEG). During development, neural activity became more variable across the whole brain, with most robust increases in medial parietal regions, such as the precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex. For young children and adults, activity evoked by upright faces was more variable and noisy compared with inverted faces, and this effect was reliable only in the right fusiform gyrus. These results are consistent with the notion that upright faces engender a variety of integrative neural computations, such as the relations among facial features and their holistic constitution. This study shows that transient changes in functional integration modulated by task demand are evident in the variability of regional neural activity.

The terroir of vineyards - climatic variability in an Austrian wine-growing region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerersdorfer, T.

2010-09-01

The description of a terroir is a concept in viticulture that relates the sensory attributes of wine to the environmental conditions in which the grapes grow. Many factors are involved including climate, soil, cultivar, human practices and all these factors interact manifold. The study area of Carnuntum is a small wine-growing region in the eastern part of Austria. It is rich of Roman remains which play a major role in tourism and the marketing strategies of the wines as well. An interdisciplinary study on the environmental characteristics particularly with regard to growing conditions of grapes was started in this region. The study is concerned with the description of the physiogeographic properties of the region and with the investigation of the dominating viticultural functions. Grape-vines depend on climatic conditions to a high extent. Compared to other influencing factors like soil, climate plays a significant role. In the framework of this interdisciplinary project climatic variability within the Carnuntum wine-growing region is investigated. On the one hand microclimatic variations are influenced by soil type and by canopy management. On the other hand the variability is a result of the topoclimate (altitude, aspect and slope) and therefore relief is a major terroir factor. Results of microclimatic measurements and variations are presented with focus on the interpretation of the relationship between relief, structure of the vineyards and the climatic conditions within the course of a full year period.