Sea otter population declines in the Aleutian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doroff, Angela M.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Burn, Douglas M.; Evans, Thomas J.

2003-01-01

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations were exploited to near extinction and began to recover after the cessation of commercial hunting in 1911. Remnant colonies of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago were among the first to recover; they continued to increase through the 1980s but declined abruptly during the 1990s. We conducted an aerial survey of the Aleutian archipelago in 2000 and compared results with similar surveys conducted in 1965 and 1992. The number of sea otters counted decreased by 75% between 1965 and 2000; 88% for islands at equilibrial density in 1965. The population decline likely began in the mid-1980s and declined at a rate of 17.5%/year in the 1990s. The minimal population estimate was 8,742 sea otters in 2000. The population declined to a uniformly low density in the archipelago, suggesting a common and geographically widespread cause. These data are in general agreement with the hypothesis of increased predation on sea otters. These data chronicle one of the most widespread and precipitous population declines for a mammalian carnivore in recorded history.

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

2001-01-01

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs-historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faurby, S.; King, T.L.; Obst, M.; Hallerman, E.M.; Pertoldi, C.; Funch, P.

2010-01-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics-a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Population dynamics of American horseshoe crabs--historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressures.

PubMed

Faurby, Søren; King, Tim L; Obst, Matthias; Hallerman, Eric M; Pertoldi, Cino; Funch, Peter

2010-08-01

Populations of the American horseshoe crab, Limulus polyphemus, have declined, but neither the causes nor the magnitude are fully understood. In order to evaluate historic demography, variation at 12 microsatellite DNA loci surveyed in 1218 L. polyphemus sampled from 28 localities was analysed with Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The analysis showed strong declines in population sizes throughout the species' distribution except in the geographically isolated southern-most population in Mexico, where a strong increase in population size was inferred. Analyses suggested that demographic changes in the core of the distribution occurred in association with the recolonization after the Ice Age and also by anthropogenic effects, such as the past overharvest of the species for fertilizer or the current use of the animals as bait for American eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon spp.) fisheries. This study highlights the importance of considering both climatic changes and anthropogenic effects in efforts to understand population dynamics--a topic which is highly relevant in the ongoing assessments of the effects of climate change and overharvest.

Do post-reproductive aged females promote maternal health? Preliminary evidence from historical populations.

PubMed

Gemmill, Alison; Catalano, Ralph

2017-01-01

Much literature argues that natural selection conserved menopause and longevity in women because those who stopped childbearing helped bolster daughters' fertility and reduce infant mortality among grandchildren. Whether the presence of grandmothers ever improved fitness sufficiently to affect longevity via natural selection remains controversial and difficult to test. The argument underlying the grandmother and associated alloparenting literature, however, leads us to the novel and testable prediction that the presence of older women in historical societies could have affected population health by reducing lethality associated with childbearing. Using historical life table data from four societies (Denmark, England and Wales, France and Sweden), we test the hypothesis that death rates among women initiating childbearing declined when the societies in which they were embedded included unexpectedly high frequencies of older women. We use time series analysis to measure the extent to which the observed likelihood of death among women aged 20-24 differs from statistically expected values when the number of older women grows or declines. In three of the four countries examined, we find an inverse relationship between the frequency of post-reproductive females in the population and odds of mortality among females at the peak of childbearing initiation. Results suggest that the presence of older women in a population may enhance population health by reducing mortality among women who face high risk of maternal death, although additional research is needed to determine if this relationship is causal.

Prehistorical and historical declines in Caribbean coral reef accretion rates driven by loss of parrotfish

PubMed Central

Cramer, Katie L.; O'Dea, Aaron; Clark, Tara R.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Norris, Richard D.

2017-01-01

Caribbean coral reefs have transformed into algal-dominated habitats over recent decades, but the mechanisms of change are unresolved due to a lack of quantitative ecological data before large-scale human impacts. To understand the role of reduced herbivory in recent coral declines, we produce a high-resolution 3,000 year record of reef accretion rate and herbivore (parrotfish and urchin) abundance from the analysis of sediments and fish, coral and urchin subfossils within cores from Caribbean Panama. At each site, declines in accretion rates and parrotfish abundance were initiated in the prehistorical or historical period. Statistical tests of direct cause and effect relationships using convergent cross mapping reveal that accretion rates are driven by parrotfish abundance (but not vice versa) but are not affected by total urchin abundance. These results confirm the critical role of parrotfish in maintaining coral-dominated reef habitat and the urgent need for restoration of parrotfish populations to enable reef persistence. PMID:28112169

Pesticides and amphibian population declines in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, Donald W.; Fellers, Gary M.; McConnell, Laura L.

2001-01-01

Several species of anuran amphibians have undergone drastic population declines in the western United States over the last 10 to 15 years. In California, the most severe declines are in the Sierra Mountains east of the Central Valley and downwind of the intensely agricultural San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, coastal and more northern populations across from the less agrarian Sacramento Valley are stable or declining less precipitously. In this article, we provide evidence that pesticides are instrumental in declines of these species. Using Hyla regilla as a sentinel species, we found that cholinesterase (ChE) activity in tadpoles was depressed in mountainous areas east of the Central Valley compared with sites along the coast or north of the Valley. Cholinesterase was also lower in areas where ranid population status was poor or moderate compared with areas with good ranid status. Up to 50% of the sampled population in areas with reduced ChE had detectable organophosphorus residues, with concentrations as high as 190 ppb wet weight. In addition, up to 86% of some populations had measurable endosulfan concentrations and 40% had detectable 4,4'- dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, 4,4'-DDT, and 2,4'-DDT residues.

A historical perspective and critique of the declining amphibian crisis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bury, R. Bruce

1999-01-01

Losses of amphibian species and populations are of global concern (Blaustein and Wake 1990, Wyman 1990, Wake 1991, Vial and Saylor 1993, Blaustein 1994) and have been the focus of an increasing number of studies. Still, neither all regions nor all species have declines (Dodd 1997; Green 197; Corn, in press). There also is wide variation in abundance of many species over different years (Pechmann et al. 1991, Meyer et al. 1998); consequently, natural variation needs to be clearly separated from regional declines in populations.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records

PubMed Central

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Abstract The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation. PMID:27408548

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records.

PubMed

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation.

Extinction rate, historical population structure and ecological role of the Caribbean monk seal.

PubMed

McClenachan, Loren; Cooper, Andrew B

2008-06-22

The productivity and biomass of pristine coral reef ecosystems is poorly understood, particularly in the Caribbean where communities have been impacted by overfishing and multiple other stressors over centuries. Using historical data on the spatial distribution and abundance of the extinct Caribbean monk seal (Monachus tropicalis), this study reconstructs the population size, structure and ecological role of this once common predator within coral reef communities, and provides evidence that historical reefs supported biomasses of fishes and invertebrates up to six times greater than those found on typical modern Caribbean reefs. An estimated 233,000-338,000 monk seals were distributed among 13 colonies across the Caribbean. The biomass of reef fishes and invertebrates required to support historical seal populations was 732-1018 gm(-2) of reefs, which exceeds that found on any Caribbean reef today and is comparable with those measured in remote Pacific reefs. Quantitative estimates of historically dense monk seal colonies and their consumption rates on pristine reefs provide concrete data on the magnitude of decline in animal biomass on Caribbean coral reefs. Realistic reconstruction of these past ecosystems is critical to understanding the profound and long-lasting effect of human hunting on the functioning of coral reef ecosystems.

Extinction rate, historical population structure and ecological role of the Caribbean monk seal

PubMed Central

McClenachan, Loren; Cooper, Andrew B

2008-01-01

The productivity and biomass of pristine coral reef ecosystems is poorly understood, particularly in the Caribbean where communities have been impacted by overfishing and multiple other stressors over centuries. Using historical data on the spatial distribution and abundance of the extinct Caribbean monk seal (Monachus tropicalis), this study reconstructs the population size, structure and ecological role of this once common predator within coral reef communities, and provides evidence that historical reefs supported biomasses of fishes and invertebrates up to six times greater than those found on typical modern Caribbean reefs. An estimated 233 000–338 000 monk seals were distributed among 13 colonies across the Caribbean. The biomass of reef fishes and invertebrates required to support historical seal populations was 732–1018 g m−2 of reefs, which exceeds that found on any Caribbean reef today and is comparable with those measured in remote Pacific reefs. Quantitative estimates of historically dense monk seal colonies and their consumption rates on pristine reefs provide concrete data on the magnitude of decline in animal biomass on Caribbean coral reefs. Realistic reconstruction of these past ecosystems is critical to understanding the profound and long-lasting effect of human hunting on the functioning of coral reef ecosystems. PMID:18348965

The historical decline of tobacco smoking among United States physicians: 1949–1984

PubMed Central

Smith, Derek R

2008-01-01

Background Tobacco use became an ingrained habit in the United States (US) following the First World War and a large proportion of physicians, similar to the general population, were smokers. The period from 1949 to 1984 was a pivotal era of change however, as the medical profession, like the society it served, became increasingly aware of the dangers that tobacco incurred for health. Methods An extensive review targeted all manuscripts published in academic journals between 1949 and 1984 that related to tobacco smoking among US physicians. The study was undertaken in 2007–08 with an internet search of relevant medical databases, after which time the reference lists of manuscripts were also examined to find additional articles. Results A total of 57 manuscripts met the inclusion criteria. From a research perspective, the methodology and coverage of smoking surveys ranged from detailed national investigations, to local medical association surveys, and journal readership questionnaires. From a historical perspective, it can be seen that by the 1950s many US physicians had begun questioning the safety of tobacco products, and by the 1960s and 1970s, this had resulted in a continuous decline in tobacco use. By the 1980s, few US physicians were still smoking, and many of their younger demographic had probably never smoked at all. Conclusion Although the quality and coverage of historical surveys varied over time, a review of their main results indicates a clear and consistent decline in tobacco use among US physicians between 1949 and 1984. Much can be learned from this pivotal era of public health, where the importance of scientific knowledge, professional leadership and social responsibility helped set positive examples in the fight against tobacco. PMID:18822167

Historical citizen science to understand and predict climate-driven trout decline

PubMed Central

Ninyerola, Miquel; Hermoso, Virgilio; Filipe, Ana Filipa; Pla, Magda; Villero, Daniel; Brotons, Lluís; Delibes, Miguel

2017-01-01

Historical species records offer an excellent opportunity to test the predictive ability of range forecasts under climate change, but researchers often consider that historical records are scarce and unreliable, besides the datasets collected by renowned naturalists. Here, we demonstrate the relevance of biodiversity records developed through citizen-science initiatives generated outside the natural sciences academia. We used a Spanish geographical dictionary from the mid-nineteenth century to compile over 10 000 freshwater fish records, including almost 4 000 brown trout (Salmo trutta) citations, and constructed a historical presence–absence dataset covering over 2 000 10 × 10 km cells, which is comparable to present-day data. There has been a clear reduction in trout range in the past 150 years, coinciding with a generalized warming. We show that current trout distribution can be accurately predicted based on historical records and past and present values of three air temperature variables. The models indicate a consistent decline of average suitability of around 25% between 1850s and 2000s, which is expected to surpass 40% by the 2050s. We stress the largely unexplored potential of historical species records from non-academic sources to open new pathways for long-term global change science. PMID:28077766

AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

Hyperstability masks declines in bumphead parrotfish ( Bolbometopon muricatum) populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Richard J.; Almany, Glenn R.; Stevens, Don; Bode, Michael; Pita, John; Peterson, Nate A.; Choat, J. Howard

2016-09-01

Bolbometopon muricatum, the largest species of parrotfish, is a functionally important species that is characterised by the formation of aggregations for foraging, reproductive, and sleeping behaviours. Aggregations are restricted to shallow reef habitats, the locations of which are often known to local fishers. Bolbometopon muricatum fisheries are therefore vulnerable to overfishing and are likely to exhibit hyperstability, the maintenance of high catch per unit effort (CPUE) while population abundance declines. In this study, we provide a clear demonstration of hyperstable dynamics in a commercial B. muricatum fishery in Isabel Province, Solomon Islands. Initially, we used participatory mapping to demarcate the Kia fishing grounds into nine zones that had experienced different historic levels of fishing pressure. We then conducted comprehensive underwater visual census (UVC) and CPUE surveys across these zones over a 21-month period in 2012-2013. The individual sites for replicate UVC surveys were selected using a generalised random tessellation stratified variable probability design, while CPUE surveys involved trained provincial fisheries officers and local spearfishers. A comparison of fishery-independent abundance data and fishery-dependent CPUE data indicate extreme hyperstability, with CPUE maintained as B. muricatum abundance declines towards zero. Hyperstability may explain the sudden collapses of many B. muricatum spear fisheries across the Pacific and highlights the limitations of using data-poor fisheries assessment methods to evaluate the status of commercially valuable coral reef fishes that form predicable aggregations.

Declining scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.S.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

2000-01-01

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issuesof concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breedingground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

2009-12-01

There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

PubMed Central

Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

PubMed

Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

2012-02-01

Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little

Genomic Consequences of Population Decline in the Endangered Florida Scrub-Jay.

PubMed

Chen, Nancy; Cosgrove, Elissa J; Bowman, Reed; Fitzpatrick, John W; Clark, Andrew G

2016-11-07

Understanding the population genetic consequences of declining population size is important for conserving the many species worldwide facing severe decline [1]. Thorough empirical studies on the impacts of population reduction at a genome-wide scale in the wild are scarce because they demand huge field and laboratory investments [1, 2]. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of gene flow in introducing genetic variation to small populations [3], but few have documented both genetic and fitness consequences of decreased immigration through time in a natural population [4-6]. Here we assess temporal variation in gene flow, inbreeding, and fitness using longitudinal genomic, demographic, and phenotypic data from a long-studied population of federally Threatened Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). We exhaustively sampled and genotyped the study population over two decades, providing one of the most detailed longitudinal investigations of genetics in a wild animal population to date. Immigrants were less heterozygous than residents but still introduced genetic variation into our study population. Owing to regional population declines, immigration into the study population declined from 1995-2013, resulting in increased levels of inbreeding and reduced fitness via inbreeding depression, even as the population remained demographically stable. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, small peripheral populations that already have undergone a genetic bottleneck may play a vital role in preserving genetic diversity of larger and seemingly stable populations. These findings underscore the importance of investing in the persistence of small populations and maintaining population connectivity in conservation of fragmented species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple stressor effects in relation to declining amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linder, Greg L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald; Little, E.

2003-01-01

Original research discusses the protocols and approaches to studying the effects of multiple environmental stressors on amphibian populations and gives new perspectives on this complicated subject. This new publication integrates a variety of stressors that can act in concert and may ultimately cause a decline in amphibian populations.Sixteen peer-reviewed papers cover:Toxicity Assessment examines methods, which range from long-established laboratory approaches for evaluating adverse chemical effects to amphibians, to methods that link chemicals in surface waters, sediments, and soils with adverse effects observed among amphibians in the field.Field and Laboratory Studies illustrates studies in the evaluation of multiple stressor effects that may lead to declining amphibian populations. A range of laboratory and field studies of chemicals, such as herbicides, insecticides, chlorinated organic compounds, metals, and complex mixtures are also included.Causal Analysis demonstrates the range of tools currently available for evaluating "cause-effect" relationships between environmental stressors and declining amphibian populations.Audience: This new publication is a must-have for scientists and resource management professionals from diverse fields, including ecotoxicology, chemistry, ecology, field biology, conservation biology, and natural resource management.

The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

Treesearch

Thomas C. Marcin

1974-01-01

Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

Examining differences between recovered and declining endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abbitt, Robbyn J.F.; Scott, J. Michael

2001-01-01

Between 1973 and 1999, 43 species in the United States were reclassified from endangered to threatened or removed entirely from the Endangered Species List. Of these, 23 were identified as recovered. In 1999 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ( USFWS) published a list of 33 additional species for possible reclassification and/or delisting. We initiated this study to examine why some endangered species recover but others continue to decline and to identify differences in management activities between these two groups. We defined recovered/recovering species as previously recovered species and the additional recovered/recovering species listed by the USFWS. We defined declining species as those identified as declining in the most recent USFWS Report to Congress. Information on recovered/recovering and declining species was gathered from relevant literature, recovery plans, U.S. Federal Register documents, and individuals responsible for the recovery management of each species. We used this information to examine (1) the percentage of current and historic range covered by management activities; (2) threats affecting the species; (3) population sizes at the time of listing; (4) current versus historic range size; and (5) percentage of recovery management objectives completed. Although few statistical analyses provided significant results, those that did suggest the following differences between recovered/recovering and declining species: (1) recovered/recovering species face threats that are easier to address; (2) recovered/recovering species occupy a greater percentage of their historic range; and (3) recovered/recovering species have a greater percentage of their recovery management objectives completed. Those species with threats easier to address and that occupy a greater percentage of their historic range are recovered/recovering. In contrast, declining species face threats more difficult to address and occupy significantly less of their historic range. If this

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

PubMed

Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

2015-12-01

Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014

Pup Mortality in a Rapidly Declining Harbour Seal (Phoca vitulina) Population

PubMed Central

Hanson, Nora; Thompson, Dave; Duck, Callan; Moss, Simon; Lonergan, Mike

2013-01-01

The harbour seal population in Orkney, off the north coast of Scotland, has reduced by 65% between 2001 and 2010. The cause(s) of this decline are unknown but must affect the demographic parameters of the population. Here, satellite telemetry data were used to test the hypothesis that increased pup mortality could be a primary driver of the decline in Orkney. Pup mortality and tag failure parameters were estimated from the duration of operation of satellite tags deployed on harbour seal pups from the Orkney population (n = 24) and from another population on the west coast of Scotland (n = 24) where abundance was stable. Survival probabilities from both populations were best represented by a common gamma distribution and were not different from one another, suggesting that increased pup mortality is unlikely to be the primary agent in the Orkney population decline. The estimated probability of surviving to 6 months was 0.390 (95% CI 0.297 – 0.648) and tag failure was represented by a Gaussian distribution, with estimated mean 270 (95% CI = 198 – 288) and s.d. 21 (95% CI = 1 – 66) days. These results suggest that adult survival is the most likely proximate cause of the decline. They also demonstrate a novel technique for attaining age-specific mortality rates from telemetry data. PMID:24312239

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

PubMed

Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

2017-01-01

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in koala museum specimens collected in the 19th and 20th centuries, hypothesizing that the historical samples would exhibit greater genetic diversity. Results The mtDNA haplotypes present in historical museum samples were identical to haplotypes found in modern koala populations, and no novel haplotypes were detected. Rarefaction analyses suggested that the mtDNA genetic diversity present in the museum samples was similar to that of modern koalas. Conclusions Low mtDNA diversity may have been present in koala populations prior to recent population declines. When considering management strategies, low genetic diversity of the mtDNA hypervariable region may not indicate recent inbreeding or founder events but may reflect an older historical pattern for koalas. PMID:23095716

Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

DISEASE COMPLEXITY IN A DECLINING ALASKAN MUSKOX (OVIBOS MOSCHATUS) POPULATION.

PubMed

Afema, Josephine A; Beckmen, Kimberlee B; Arthur, Stephen M; Huntington, Kathy Burek; Mazet, Jonna A K

2017-04-01

The muskox ( Ovibos moschatus ) population inhabiting the eastern North Slope (ENS) of Alaska, US declined dramatically during 1999-2006, whereas populations in western Alaska (WA) were stable or increasing. To understand morbidity and mortality factors contributing to the decline, Alaska Department of Fish and Game conducted pathologic investigations of carcasses from 2005 until 2008. Additionally, archived sera from both ENS and WA muskoxen collected during 1984-92, before the documented beginning of the ENS decline; sera collected during 2000, near the beginning of the decline; and contemporary sera (from live capture-release, adult females) collected during 2006, 2007, and 2008 were analyzed to determine whether prevalence of antibody to potential pathogens differed in the two areas or changed over time. The pathogens investigated were those that were believed could cause lameness or poor reproduction or adversely affect general health. Furthermore, trace mineral levels, hemograms, and gastrointestinal parasites were evaluated in live adult females captured 2006-08. Pathologic investigations identified several comorbid conditions, including predation, polyarthritis caused by or consistent with Chlamydophila spp. infection, hoof lesions, copper deficiency, contagious ecthyma, verminous pneumonia, hepatic lipidosis suggestive of negative energy balance, and bacterial bronchopneumonia due to Trueperella pyogenes and Bibersteinia trehalosi . Pathogens suspected to be newly introduced in the ENS muskox population on the basis of serologic detection include bovine viral diarrhea, respiratory syncytial virus, Chlamydophila spp., Brucella spp., Coxiella burnetii , and Leptospira spp., whereas parainfluenza virus-3 antibody prevalence has increased in the WA population. Although multiple disease syndromes were identified that contributed to mortality and, in combination, likely limited the ENS muskox population, further holistic investigations of disease agents, trace

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: a wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; Linder, Gregory L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald W.; Little, Edward E.

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, 'Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect.' This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: A wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; ,

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple Stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, "Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect." This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE PAGES

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; ...

2017-02-08

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-01-01

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Using Latent Selection Difference to Model Persistence in a Declining Population

PubMed Central

Erickson, Mara E.; Found-Jackson, Christine; Boyce, Mark S.

2014-01-01

Population persistence is a direct measure of the viability of a population. Monitoring the distribution of declining populations or subpopulations over time can yield estimates of persistence, which we show can be modeled as a latent selection difference (LSD) contrasting attributes of sites where populations have persisted versus those that have not. Predicted persistence can be modeled with predictor covariates to identify factors correlated with species persistence. We demonstrate how to model persistence based on changes in occupancy that can include adjustments for detection probability. Using a known historical distribution of the western grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis), we adapted methods originally developed for occupancy modeling to evaluate how environmental covariates including emergent vegetation and human developments have affected western grebe persistence in Alberta. The relative probability of persistence was correlated with the extent of shoreline bulrush (Scirpus lacustris), which is important vegetation for nesting cover. We also documented that western grebe populations were less likely to persist on lakes in the boreal forest, primarily located on the northern boundary of the species' range. Factors influencing occupancy were different than those determining persistence by western grebes; persistence and occupancy were not correlated. Persistence was more likely on lakes with recreational development, reflecting reliance by grebes on the larger, fish-bearing waterbodies that also are attractive for lakeshore development. Unfortunately, the correlation with recreational development on Alberta's lakes puts grebes at risk for loss of brood-rearing habitats—primary threats to altricial birds—if steps are not taken to prevent disturbance to bulrush stands. Identifying factors related to the persistence of a species—especially one in decline—is a fundamental step in conservation management. PMID:24866172

Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

Population declines lead to replicate patterns of internal range structure at the tips of the distribution of the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Backlin, Adam R.; Tatarian, Patricia J.; Solvesky, Ben G.; Fisher, Robert N.

2014-01-01

Demographic declines and increased isolation of peripheral populations of the threatened California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii) have led to the formation of internal range boundaries at opposite ends of the species’ distribution. While the population genetics of the southern internal boundary has been studied in some detail, similar information is lacking for the northern part of the range. In this study, we used microsatellite and mtDNA data to examine the genetic structuring and diversity of some of the last remaining R. draytonii populations in the northern Sierra Nevada, which collectively form the northern external range boundary. We compared these data to coastal populations in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the species is notably more abundant and still exists throughout much of its historic range. We show that ‘external’ Sierra Nevada populations have lower genetic diversity and are more differentiated from one another than their ‘internal’ Bay Area counterparts. This same pattern was mirrored across the distribution in California, where Sierra Nevada and Bay Area populations had lower allelic variability compared to those previously studied in coastal southern California. This genetic signature of northward range expansion was mirrored in the phylogeography of mtDNA haplotypes; northern Sierra Nevada haplotypes showed greater similarity to haplotypes from the south Coast Ranges than to the more geographically proximate populations in the Bay Area. These data cast new light on the geographic origins of Sierra Nevada R. draytonii populations and highlight the importance of distinguishing the genetic effects of contemporary demographic declines from underlying signatures of historic range expansion when addressing the most immediate threats to population persistence. Because there is no evidence of contemporary gene flow between any of the Sierra Nevada R. draytonii populations, we suggest that management activities should focus on

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

PubMed

Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

2013-10-01

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

1998-01-01

Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

Climate change and pollution speed declines in zebrafish populations.

PubMed

Brown, A Ross; Owen, Stewart F; Peters, James; Zhang, Yong; Soffker, Marta; Paull, Gregory C; Hosken, David J; Wahab, M Abdul; Tyler, Charles R

2015-03-17

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are potent environmental contaminants, and their effects on wildlife populations could be exacerbated by climate change, especially in species with environmental sex determination. Endangered species may be particularly at risk because inbreeding depression and stochastic fluctuations in male and female numbers are often observed in the small populations that typify these taxa. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of water temperature and EDC exposure on sexual development and population viability of inbred and outbred zebrafish (Danio rerio). Water temperatures adopted were 28 °C (current ambient mean spawning temperature) and 33 °C (projected for the year 2100). The EDC selected was clotrimazole (at 2 μg/L and 10 μg/L), a widely used antifungal chemical that inhibits a key steroidogenic enzyme [cytochrome P450(CYP19) aromatase] required for estrogen synthesis in vertebrates. Elevated water temperature and clotrimazole exposure independently induced male-skewed sex ratios, and the effects of clotrimazole were greater at the higher temperature. Male sex ratio skews also occurred for the lower clotrimazole exposure concentration at the higher water temperature in inbred fish but not in outbred fish. Population viability analysis showed that population growth rates declined sharply in response to male skews and declines for inbred populations occurred at lower male skews than for outbred populations. These results indicate that elevated temperature associated with climate change can amplify the effects of EDCs and these effects are likely to be most acute in small, inbred populations exhibiting environmental sex determination and/or differentiation.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming.

PubMed

DeVivo, Melia T; Edmunds, David R; Kauffman, Matthew J; Schumaker, Brant A; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J; Richards, Bryan J; Schätzl, Hermann M; Cornish, Todd E

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010-2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

PubMed Central

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schätzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd E.

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ = 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations. PMID:29049389

Endemic chronic wasting disease causes mule deer population decline in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVivo, Melia T.; Edmunds, David R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant A.; Binfet, Justin; Kreeger, Terry J.; Richards, Bryan J.; Schatzl, Hermann M.; Cornish, Todd

2017-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy affecting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), and moose (Alces alces shirasi) in North America. In southeastern Wyoming average annual CWD prevalence in mule deer exceeds 20% and appears to contribute to regional population declines. We determined the effect of CWD on mule deer demography using age-specific, female-only, CWD transition matrix models to estimate the population growth rate (λ). Mule deer were captured from 2010–2014 in southern Converse County Wyoming, USA. Captured adult (≥ 1.5 years old) deer were tested ante-mortem for CWD using tonsil biopsies and monitored using radio telemetry. Mean annual survival rates of CWD-negative and CWD-positive deer were 0.76 and 0.32, respectively. Pregnancy and fawn recruitment were not observed to be influenced by CWD. We estimated λ= 0.79, indicating an annual population decline of 21% under current CWD prevalence levels. A model derived from the demography of only CWD-negative individuals yielded; λ = 1.00, indicating a stable population if CWD were absent. These findings support CWD as a significant contributor to mule deer population decline. Chronic wasting disease is difficult or impossible to eradicate with current tools, given significant environmental contamination, and at present our best recommendation for control of this disease is to minimize spread to new areas and naïve cervid populations.

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

PubMed Central

Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-01-01

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

PubMed

Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

2018-01-22

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates

Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

PubMed

Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

2018-04-01

The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Survey trends of North American shorebirds: Population declines or shifting distributions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Brown, Stephen; Harrington, Brian A.; Morrison, R.I. Guy

2007-01-01

We analyzed data from two surveys of fall migrating shorebirds in central and eastern North America to estimate annual trends in means per survey and to determine whether trends indicate a change in population size or might have been caused by other factors. The analysis showed a broad decline in means per survey in Atlantic Canada and the northeastern United States (North Atlantic region). For example, 9 of 9 significant trends in this region were <1 (P=0.004), and the mean, annual rate of change among 30 species was 0.9783, a decline of −2.17% per year (P<0.001). Trends in the midwestern United States (Midwest region) showed no clear pattern. The mean among 29 species was 1.0090 (P=0.35). Only 4 of the trends were significant. Several hypotheses were evaluated to identify causes of the declining means per survey in the North Atlantic region. The most likely hypothesis appears to be a decline in the breeding populations that supply migrants to the North Atlantic region, but a change in movements, for example passing through the region more quickly in recent years, cannot be excluded as an explanation. Further surveys of arctic breeding areas coupled with analysis of long‐term survey data from western North America would be helpful in determining whether the declines found in this analysis are also occurring in other areas.

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population

PubMed Central

Rebholz, Casey M.; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M.; Estrella, Michelle M.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J.; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987–1989 (baseline) to 2011–2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th–90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0–2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4–3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5–3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. PMID:26966015

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Rebholz, Casey M; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M; Estrella, Michelle M; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-09-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987-1989 (baseline) to 2011-2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th-90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0-2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4-3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5-3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919–45

PubMed Central

Singer, Burton H.

2011-01-01

The islands of Yap in Micronesia survived a period of severe depopulation during the Japanese occupation from 1919 to 1945. Using data from historical documents, supplemented by ethnographic evidence, we calibrate a simulation model that accounts for this phenomenon. Our model tracks the reproduction histories of a synthetic cohort of women in Yap, including effects of infertility due to gonorrhoea as well as tuberculosis mortality, and predicts the net reproduction rate (NRR). In this particular case and throughout history, human migrations and associated social and cultural interactions have frequently been accompanied by dramatic changes in patterns of disease transmission and substantial demographic consequences. Despite the broad emphasis on mortality as a measure of demographic consequences in the historical and contemporary literature, there are important instances where life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and total population size are important demographic consequences. We find that gonorrhoea may have significantly contributed to depopulation during the Japanese occupation of Micronesia, due to repeated infections and high risk of sterility. Results of our model suggest that gonorrhoea alone could have reduced the net reproduction rate by 82%, whereas deaths from tuberculosis may have contributed to a 17% decline. PMID:21666856

Emerging Infectious Disease Leads to Rapid Population Declines of Common British Birds

PubMed Central

Toms, Mike P.; Peck, Kirsi M.; Kirkwood, James K.; Chantrey, Julian; Clatworthy, Innes R.; Evans, Andy D.; Hughes, Laura A.; Hutchinson, Oliver C.; John, Shinto K.; Pennycott, Tom W.; Perkins, Matthew W.; Rowley, Peter S.; Simpson, Vic R.; Tyler, Kevin M.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

2010-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period. PMID:20805869

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

PubMed

Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-04-10

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Taxonomic and geographic patterns of decline for threatened and endangered species in the United States.

PubMed

Leidner, Allison K; Neel, Maile C

2011-08-01

Species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (i.e., listed species) have declined to the point that the probability of their extinction is high. The decline of these species, however, may manifest itself in different ways, including reductions in geographic range, number of populations, or overall abundance. Understanding the pattern of decline can help managers assess extinction probability and define recovery objectives. Although quantitative data on changes in geographic range, number of populations, and abundance usually do not exist for listed species, more often qualitative data can be obtained. We used qualitative data in recovery plans for federally listed species to determine whether each listed species declined in range size, number of populations, or abundance relative to historical levels. We calculated the proportion of listed species in each state (or equivalent) that declined in each of those ways. Nearly all listed species declined in abundance, and range size or number of populations declined in approximately 80% of species for which those data were available. Patterns of decline, however, differed taxonomically and geographically. Declines in range were more common among vertebrates than plants, whereas population extirpations were more common among plants. Invertebrates had high incidence of range and population declines. Narrowly distributed plants and invertebrates may be subject to acute threats that may result in population extirpations, whereas vertebrates may be affected by chronic threats that reduce the extent and size of populations. Additionally, in the eastern United States and U.S. coastal areas, where the level of land conversion is high, a greater percentage of species' ranges declined and more populations were extirpated than in other areas. Species in the Southwest, especially plants, had fewer range and population declines than other areas. Such relations may help in the selection of species' recovery criteria. © 2011

North American osprey populations and contaminants: Historic and contemporary perspectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, Charles J.; Grove, Robert A.; Kaiser, James L.; Johnson, Branden L.

2010-01-01

Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) populations were adversely affected by DDT and perhaps other contaminants in the United States and elsewhere. Reduced productivity, eggshell thinning, and high DDE concentrations in eggs were the signs associated with declining osprey populations in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The species was one of the first studied on a large scale to bring contaminant issues into focus. Although few quantitative population data were available prior to the 1960s, many osprey populations in North America were studied during the 1960s and 1970s with much learned about basic life history and biology. This article reviews the historical and current effects of contaminants on regional osprey populations. Breeding populations in many regions of North America showed post-DDT-era (1972) population increases of varying magnitudes, with many populations now appearing to stabilize at much higher numbers than initially reported in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the magnitude of regional population increases in the United States between 1981 (first Nationwide Survey, ∼8,000 pairs), when some recovery had already occurred, 1994 (second survey, ∼14,200), and 2001 (third survey, ∼16,000–19,000), or any other years, is likely not a simple response to the release from earlier contaminant effects, but a response to multi-factorial effects. This indirect “contaminant effects” measurement comparing changes (i.e., recovery) in post-DDT-era population numbers over time is probably confounded by changing human attitudes toward birds of prey (shooting, destroying nests, etc.), changing habitats, changing fish populations, and perhaps competition from other species. The species' adaptation to newly created reservoirs and its increasing use of artificial nesting structures (power poles, nesting platforms, cell towers, channel markers, offshore duck blinds, etc.) are two important factors. The timing of the initial use of artificial nesting structures, which replaced

Diclofenac residues as the cause of vulture population decline in Pakistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oaks, J.L.; Gilbert, M.; Virani, M.Z.; Watson, R.T.; Meteyer, C.U.; Rideout, B.A.; Shivaprasad, H.L.; Ahmed, S.; Chaudhry, M.J.I.; Arshad, M.; Mahmood, S.; Ali, A.; Khan, A.A.

2004-01-01

The Oriental white-backed vulture (OWBV; Gyps bengalensis) was once one of the most common raptors in the Indian subcontinent. A population decline of >95%, starting in the 1990s, was first noted at Keoladeo National Park, India. Since then, catastrophic declines, also involving Gyps indicus and Gyps tenuirostris, have continued to be reported across the subcontinent. Consequently these vultures are now listed as critically endangered by BirdLife International. In 2000, the Peregrine Fund initiated its Asian Vulture Crisis Project with the Ornithological Society of Pakistan, establishing study sites at 16 OWBV colonies in the Kasur, Khanewal and Muzaffargarha??Layyah Districts of Pakistan to measure mortality at over 2,400 active nest sites5. Between 2000 and 2003, high annual adult and subadult mortality (5a??86%) and resulting population declines (34a??95%) (ref. 5 and M.G., manuscript in preparation) were associated with renal failure and visceral gout. Here, we provide results that directly correlate residues of the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac with renal failure. Diclofenac residues and renal disease were reproduced experimentally in OWBVs by direct oral exposure and through feeding vultures diclofenac-treated livestock. We propose that residues of veterinary diclofenac are responsible for the OWBV decline.

Diclofenac poisoning is widespread in declining vulture populations across the Indian subcontinent.

PubMed

Shultz, Susanne; Baral, Hem Sagar; Charman, Sheonaidh; Cunningham, Andrew A; Das, Devojit; Ghalsasi, G R; Goudar, Mallikarjun S; Green, Rhys E; Jones, Ainsley; Nighot, Prashant; Pain, Deborah J; Prakash, Vibhu

2004-12-07

Recent declines in the populations of three species of vultures in the Indian subcontinent are among the most rapid ever recorded in any bird species. Evidence from a previous study of one of these species, Gyps bengalensis, in the Punjab province of Pakistan, strongly implicates mortality caused by ingestion of residues of the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac as the major cause of the decline. We show that a high proportion of Gyps bengalensis and G. indicus found dead or dying in a much larger area of India and Nepal also have residues of diclofenac and visceral gout, a post-mortem finding that is strongly associated with diclofenac contamination in both species. Hence, veterinary use of diclofenac is likely to have been the major cause of the rapid vulture population declines across the subcontinent.

ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

EPA Science Inventory

Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

Beyond the disease: Is Toxoplasma gondii infection causing population declines in the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus)?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Nicol, Stewart C.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Chris N.

2014-01-01

Disease is often considered a key threat to species of conservation significance. For some, it has resulted in localised extinctions and declines in range and abundance. However, for some species, the assertion that a disease poses a significant threat of extinction is based solely on correlative or anecdotal evidence, often inferred from individual clinical case reports. While a species’ susceptibility to a disease may be demonstrated in a number of individuals, investigations rarely extend to measuring the impact of disease at the population level and its contribution, if any, to population declines. The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that is undergoing severe and rapid decline in Tasmania, its last refuge. Reasons for the decline are currently not understood. Feral cats (Felis catus) may be undergoing competitive release following the ongoing decline of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), with cats suppressing eastern quolls through increased predation, competition, exclusion or exposure to diseases such as toxoplasmosis. To investigate the effects of Toxoplasma gondii infection, eastern quoll populations at four sites were regularly screened for the seroprevalence of T. gondii-specific IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence was approximately five times higher at sites with declining quoll populations, and there was a negative association between seroprevalence and quoll abundance. However, T. gondii infection did not reduce quoll survival or reproduction. Despite a high susceptibility to T. gondii infection, eastern quoll populations do not appear to be limited by the parasite or its resultant disease. Significantly higher seroprevalence is a signal of greater exposure to feral cats at sites where eastern quolls are declining, suggesting that increased predation, competition or exclusion by feral cats may be precipitating population declines. PMID:25161908

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

2017-09-20

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Estimating freshwater turtle mortality rates and population declines following hook ingestion.

PubMed

Steen, David A; Robinson, Orin J

2017-12-01

Freshwater turtle populations are susceptible to declines following small increases in the mortality of adults, making it essential to identify and understand potential threats. Freshwater turtles ingest fish hooks associated with recreational angling, and this is likely a problem because hook ingestion is a source of additive mortality for sea turtles. We used a Bayesian-modeling framework, observed rates of hook ingestion by freshwater turtles, and mortality of sea turtles from hook ingestion to examine the probability that a freshwater turtle in a given population ingests a hook and subsequently dies from it. We used the results of these analyses and previously published life-history data to simulate the effects of hook ingestion on population growth for 3 species of freshwater turtle. In our simulation, the probability that an individual turtle ingests a hook and dies as a result was 1.2-11%. Our simulation results suggest that this rate of mortality from hook ingestion is sufficient to cause population declines. We believe we have identified fish-hook ingestion as a serious yet generally overlooked threat to the viability of freshwater turtle populations. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Declines of greater and lesser scaup populations: issues, hypotheses, and research needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, J.E.; Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.; Clark, R.G.; Custer, Christine M.; Lawrence, J.; Pollard, J.B.; Ringelman, J.K.

2000-01-01

The population estimate for greater (Aythya marila) and lesser (Aythya affinis) scaup (combined) has declined dramatically since the early 1980s to record lows in 1998. The 1998 estimate of 3.47 million scaup is far below the goal of 6.3 million set in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), causing concern among biologists and hunters. We summarize issues of concern, hypotheses for factors contributing to the population decline, and research and management needs recommended by participants of the Scaup Workshop, held in September 1999. We believe that contaminants, lower female survival, and reduced recruitment due to changes in food resources or breeding-ground habitats are primary factors contributing to the decline. These factors are not mutually exclusive but likely interact across seasons. Workshop participants identified seven action items. We need to further delineate where declines in breeding populations have occurred, with a primary focus on the western Canadian boreal forest, where declines appear to be most pronounced. Productivity in various areas and habitats throughout the breeding range needs to be assessed by conducting retrospective analyses of existing data and by intensive field studies at broad and local scales. Annual and seasonal survival rates need to be determined in order to assess the role of harvest or natural mortality. Effects of contaminants on reproduction, female body condition, and behavior must be investigated. Use, distribution, and role of food resources relative to body condition and reproduction need to be examined to better understand seasonal dynamics of nutrient reserves and the role in reproductive success. Affiliations among breeding, migration, and wintering areas must be assessed in order to understand differential exposure to harvest or contaminants, and differential reproductive success and recruitment. Biologists and agencies need to gather and improve information needed to manage greater and lesser

The legacy of slavery and contemporary declines in heart disease mortality in the U.S. South.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Black, Nyesha C; Matthews, Stephen A; James, Sherman A

2017-12-01

This study aims to characterize the role of county-specific legacy of slavery in patterning temporal (i.e., 1968-2014), and geographic (i.e., Southern counties) declines in heart disease mortality. In this context, the U.S. has witnessed dramatic declines in heart disease mortality since the 1960's, which have benefitted place and race groups unevenly, with slower declines in the South, especially for the Black population. Age-adjusted race- and county-specific mortality rates from 1968-2014 for all diseases of the heart were calculated for all Southern U.S. counties. Candidate confounding and mediating covariates from 1860, 1930, and 1970, were combined with mortality data in multivariable regression models to estimate the ecological association between the concentration of slavery in1860 and declines in heart disease mortality from 1968-2014. Black populations, in counties with a history of highest versus lowest concentration of slavery, experienced a 17% slower decline in heart disease mortality. The association for Black populations varied by region (stronger in Deep South than Upper South states) and was partially explained by intervening socioeconomic factors. In models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, there was no association between slave concentration and heart disease mortality decline for Whites. Nearly 50 years of declining heart disease mortality is a major public health success, but one marked by uneven progress by place and race. At the county level, progress in heart disease mortality reduction among Blacks is associated with place-based historical legacy of slavery. Effective and equitable public health prevention efforts should consider the historical context of place and the social and economic institutions that may play a role in facilitating or impeding diffusion of prevention efforts thereby producing heart healthy places and populations. Graphical abstract.

Reconstructing the historic demography of an endangered seabird

Treesearch

Steven R. Beissinger; Zachariah M. Peery

2007-01-01

Reducing extinction risk for threatened species requires determining which demographic parameters are depressed and causing population declines. Museum collections may constitute a unique, underutilized resource for measuring demographic changes over long time periods using age-ratio analysis. We reconstruct the historic demography of a U.S. federally endangered...

Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

PubMed Central

Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

2013-01-01

Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

PubMed Central

Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-01-01

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. PMID:18048343

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

PubMed

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

The Population Health Approach in Historical Perspective

PubMed Central

Szreter, Simon

2003-01-01

The origin of the population health approach is an historic debate over the relationship between economic growth and human health. In Britain and France, the Industrial Revolution disrupted population health and stimulated pioneering epidemiological studies, informing the early preventive public health movement. A century-long process of political adjustment between the forces of liberal democracy and propertied interests ensued. The 20th-century welfare states resulted as complex political mechanisms for converting economic growth into enhanced population health. However, the rise of a “neoliberal” agenda, denigrating the role of government, has once again brought to the fore the importance of prevention and a population health approach to map and publicize the health impacts of this new phase of “global” economic growth. PMID:12604486

Updated population metadata for United States historical climatology network stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Owen, T.W.; Gallo, K.P.

2000-01-01

The United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) serial temperature dataset is comprised of 1221 high-quality, long-term climate observing stations. The HCN dataset is available in several versions, one of which includes population-based temperature modifications to adjust urban temperatures for the "heat-island" effect. Unfortunately, the decennial population metadata file is not complete as missing values are present for 17.6% of the 12 210 population values associated with the 1221 individual stations during the 1900-90 interval. Retrospective grid-based populations. Within a fixed distance of an HCN station, were estimated through the use of a gridded population density dataset and historically available U.S. Census county data. The grid-based populations for the HCN stations provide values derived from a consistent methodology compared to the current HCN populations that can vary as definitions of the area associated with a city change over time. The use of grid-based populations may minimally be appropriate to augment populations for HCN climate stations that lack any population data, and are recommended when consistent and complete population data are required. The recommended urban temperature adjustments based on the HCN and grid-based methods of estimating station population can be significantly different for individual stations within the HCN dataset.

A historical review of managed honey bee populations in Europe and the United States and the factors that may affect them.

PubMed

Vanengelsdorp, Dennis; Meixner, Marina Doris

2010-01-01

Honey bees are a highly valued resource around the world. They are prized for their honey and wax production and depended upon for pollination of many important crops. While globally honey bee populations have been increasing, the rate of increase is not keeping pace with demand. Further, honey bee populations have not been increasing in all parts of the world, and have declined in many nations in Europe and in North America. Managed honey bee populations are influenced by many factors including diseases, parasites, pesticides, the environment, and socio-economic factors. These factors can act alone or in combination with each other. This review highlights the present day value of honey bees, followed by a detailed description of some of the historical and present day factors that influence honey bee populations, with particular emphasis on colony populations in Europe and the United States. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Terminal decline of episodic memory and perceptual speed in a biracial population.

PubMed

Wilson, Robert S; Rajan, Kumar B; Barnes, Lisa L; Jansen, Willemijn; Amofa, Priscilla; Weuve, Jennifer; Evans, Denis A

2018-05-01

We compared trajectories of terminal cognitive decline in older Black (n = 3372) and White (n = 1756) persons from a defined population who completed tests of episodic memory and perceptual speed at 3-year intervals for up to 18 years. During a mean of 9.9 years of observation, 1608 Black persons and 902 White persons died. Preterminal decline of episodic memory did not differ by race. Terminal episodic memory decline began earlier in Black persons (mean of 4.3 years before death) than in White persons (mean = 3.9 years) and progressed more slowly. By contrast, terminal decline of perceptual speed began earlier in White persons (mean = 5.0 years) than in Black persons (mean = 4.5 years). Rate of perceptual speed decline was more rapid in White persons than in Black persons in both the preterminal and terminal periods. The results indicate that terminal cognitive decline occurs in Black persons but suggest that the rate of cognitive decline during the terminal period is less rapid in Black persons than in White persons.

Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century

PubMed Central

Li, Haipeng; Xiang-Yu, Jinggong; Dai, Guangyi; Gu, Zhili; Ming, Chen; Yang, Zongfeng; Ryder, Oliver A.; Li, Wen-Hsiung; Fu, Yun-Xin; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2016-01-01

Accelerated losses of biodiversity are a hallmark of the current era. Large declines of population size have been widely observed and currently 22,176 species are threatened by extinction. The time at which a threatened species began rapid population decline (RPD) and the rate of RPD provide important clues about the driving forces of population decline and anticipated extinction time. However, these parameters remain unknown for the vast majority of threatened species. Here we analyzed the genetic diversity data of nuclear and mitochondrial loci of 2,764 vertebrate species and found that the mean genetic diversity is lower in threatened species than in related nonthreatened species. Our coalescence-based modeling suggests that in many threatened species the RPD began ∼123 y ago (a 95% confidence interval of 20–260 y). This estimated date coincides with widespread industrialization and a profound change in global living ecosystems over the past two centuries. On average the population size declined by ∼25% every 10 y in a threatened species, and the population size was reduced to ∼5% of its ancestral size. Moreover, the ancestral size of threatened species was, on average, ∼22% smaller than that of nonthreatened species. Because the time period of RPD is short, the cumulative effect of RPD on genetic diversity is still not strong, so that the smaller ancestral size of threatened species may be the major cause of their reduced genetic diversity; RPD explains 24.1–37.5% of the difference in genetic diversity between threatened and nonthreatened species. PMID:27872315

Extinction debt as a driver of amphibian declines: An example with imperiled flatwoods salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semiltsch, Raymond D; Walls, Susan; Barichivich, William J.; O'Donnell, Katherine

2017-01-01

A comprehensive view of population declines and their underlying causes is necessary to reverse species loss. Historically, in many cases, a narrow view may have allowed species declines to continue, virtually undetected, for long periods of time (perhaps even decades). We suggest that extinction debt is likely responsible for numerous (perhaps most) amphibian declines and that this perspective should be incorporated into the structure of amphibian research and management. Extinction debt, originally proposed to explain changes in species richness following environmental disturbance, also may refer to the proportion of populations of an individual species that is expected to eventually be lost because of habitat change. A conservation framework to address extinction debt focuses research on threats at the individual, population, and metapopulation levels. This approach will help enhance, restore, and protect specific processes and habitats at the proper scale by directing management to the most vulnerable level and stage of a species. We illustrate this approach using Flatwoods Salamanders, Ambystoma cingulatumand Ambystoma bishopi, which occurred historically throughout the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States but have experienced a greater than 85% loss of populations in recent years. Reversal of these losses is possible only if conservation and recovery efforts encompass individual, population, and metapopulation levels. We illustrate our framework by outlining actions that could be taken at each of these levels to help guide conservation and management of amphibians with complex life cycles and provide options for how to prioritize conservation actions in the face of logistical and budgetary shortfalls.

Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague.

PubMed

Rubini, Mauro; Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Manzon, Vanessa S; Rinaldo, Natascia; Bianucci, Raffaella

2016-05-31

Plague has been responsible for two major historic pandemics (6th-8th century CE; 14th-19th century CE) and a modern one. The recent Malagasy plague outbreaks raised new concerns on the deadly potential of the plague-causing bacteria Yersinia pestis. Between September 2014 and April 2015, outbreaks of bubonic and pneumonic plague hit the Malagasy population. Two hundred and sixty-three cases, including 71 deaths, have been reported in 16 different districts with a case fatality rate of 27%. The scope of our study was to ascertain whether the risk factors for health in modern-day populations exposed to plague and in ancient populations that faced the two historic pandemics varied or remained substantially unaltered. The risk of mortality of the Malagasy population with those obtained from the reconstruction of three samples of European populations exposed to the historic pandemics was contrasted. The evidence shows that the risks of death are not uniform across age neither in modern nor in historic populations exposed to plague and shows precise concentrations in specific age groups (children between five and nine years of age and young adults). Although in the post-antibiotic era, the fatality rates have drastically reduced, both modern and historic populations were exposed to the same risk factors that are essentially represented by a low standard of environmental hygiene, poor nutrition, and weak health systems.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

ANTHRAX IN THE MACKENZIE WOOD BISON (BISON BISON ATHABASCAE) POPULATION: 2012 ANTHRAX OUTBREAK AND HISTORICAL EXPOSURE IN NONOUTBREAK YEARS.

PubMed

New, Dallas; Elkin, Brett; Armstrong, Terry; Epp, Tasha

2017-10-01

Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, poses a threat to wood bison (Bison bison athabascae) conservation. We used descriptive epidemiology to characterize a large outbreak of anthrax in the Mackenzie bison population in the Northwest Territories, Canada, in 2012 and investigated historical serologic exposure of the bison to the bacterium in nonoutbreak years. Between late June and early August 2012, 451 bison carcasses were detected; mortality peaked from 13-19 July. A substantial number of calves, yearlings, and adult females died in the 2012 outbreak, unlike in two previous anthrax outbreaks in this population that killed mostly mature males. On the basis of the difference in estimates of population size prior to the outbreak (2012) and after the outbreak (2013), it is possible that not all dead bison were found during the outbreak. We assessed serologic history of exposure to B. anthracis by using samples from the Mackenzie wood bison population collected between 1986 and 2009. Overall, 87 of 278 samples were positive (31%). Seroprevalence was lower in females (18%, 10/55) than males (36%, 72/203). The highest proportion of positive submissions (90%) was from 1994, the year following the only anthrax outbreak within the historical data set. Both adult males and females had a higher likelihood of being seropositive than the younger age categories. There was a trend toward declining antibody levels between the 1993 and 2012 outbreak years.

Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

PubMed

Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

2011-06-01

Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at

Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Jason M.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter–area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m2. Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter–area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland ( = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the

Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape.

PubMed

Hill, Jason M; Diefenbach, Duane R

2014-06-01

Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter-area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m(2). Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter-area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland (x = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the

Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2015-01-01

Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g., in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable.

Decline of recent seabirds inferred from a composite 1000-year record of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Wu, Libin; Sun, Liguang; Zhao, Jinjun; Chen, Lin

2016-01-01

Based on three ornithogenic sediment profiles and seabird subfossils therein from the Xisha Islands, South China Sea, the relative population size of seabirds over the past 1000 years was reconstructed using reflectance spectrum. Here we present an apparent increase and subsequent decline of seabirds on these islands in the South China Sea. Seabird populations peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1850 AD), implying that the cool climate during the LIA appears to have been more favorable to seabirds on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Climate change partly explains the recent decrease in seabird populations over the past 150 years, but the significant decline and almost complete disappearance thereof on most of the Xisha Islands is probably attributable to human disturbance. Our study reveals the increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on seabird population in recent times. PMID:27748366

Kidney function and cognitive decline in an oldest-old Chinese population.

PubMed

Bai, Kunhao; Pan, Yujing; Lu, Fanghong; Zhao, Yingxin; Wang, Jinwei; Zhang, Luxia

2017-01-01

Early-stage chronic kidney disease has been suggested to be correlated with cognitive decline, but the association has rarely been explored in the oldest old. This prospective study included 284 Chinese participants aged 80 years or older with serum creatinine levels <150 µmol/L. The median follow-up time was 3.3 years, and 247 (87.0%) participants provided valid data at their last visit. Kidney function was evaluated by measuring the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline, and cognitive function was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) at both baseline and annual visits. A reliable decrease in the MMSE score over the follow-up period was observed based on a Reliable Change Index of 1.645 (equivalent to a 90% confidence interval [CI]), which was used to define cognitive decline. Poisson regression models were built to analyze the association between baseline kidney function and cognitive decline. A total of 18 (7.3%) cases of incident cognitive decline were observed during the follow-up period. After adjusting for potential confounders, the relative risk of developing cognitive decline was 4.03 (95% CI 1.09-13.81) among participants with an eGFR of 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m 2 compared to participants with an eGFR of ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Early-stage chronic kidney disease was correlated with cognitive decline in an oldest-old Chinese population.

Recent population decline of the Marbled Murrelet in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Sherri L. Miller; Martin G. Raphael; Gary A. Falxa; Craig Strong; Jim Baldwin; Thomas Bloxton; Beth M. Galleher; Monique Lance; Deanna Lynch; Scott F. Pearson; C. John Ralph; Richard D. Young

2012-01-01

We document here a decline of nearly 30% in the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) population of Washington, Oregon, and northern California between 2000 and 2010. The Northwest Forest Plan is an ecosystem-management plan for federal forest lands in the Pacific Northwest of the United States that incorporates monitoring to determine if...

Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2002-01-01

Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Arterial stiffness and decline of renal function in a primary care population.

PubMed

van Varik, Bernard J; Vossen, Liv M; Rennenberg, Roger J; Stoffers, Henri E; Kessels, Alfons G; de Leeuw, Peter W; Kroon, Abraham A

2017-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an important pathophysiological factor linking cardiovascular disease and kidney disease. Controversy exists as to whether arterial stiffness causes renal function decline, or kidney dysfunction leads to stiffening or whether the association is mutual. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between arterial stiffness and annual rate of renal function decline. We prospectively investigated in a primary care population whether carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and annual decline in eGFR in participants aged ⩾40 years without overt kidney disease. Baseline data on PWV and eGFR were available for 587 participants; follow-up measurements with a mean duration of 5.6 years were available for 222 patients. PWV, female gender and mean arterial pressure were independently associated with eGFR at baseline, although age confounded this association. More importantly, baseline PWV, age and eGFR were independent predictors of renal function decline. Stratification for age showed that the effect of PWV on rate of eGFR decline was amplified with advancing age. On the other hand, baseline eGFR did not determine annual change in PWV, suggesting a unidirectional association between arterial stiffness and eGFR. Arterial stiffness amplifies age-related renal function decline, suggesting that arterial stiffness plays a causal role in the development of renal damage, at least at later stages of age-related renal function decline, possibly through impaired renal autoregulation and increased arterial blood pressure pulsatility.

Predation and nutrients drive population declines in breeding waders.

PubMed

Møller, Anders Pape; Thorup, Ole; Laursen, Karsten

2018-04-20

Allee effects are defined as a decline in per capita fitness at low population density. We hypothesized that predation reduces population size of breeding waders and thereby the efficiency of predator deterrence, while total nitrogen through its effects on primary and secondary productivity increases population size. Therefore, nest predation could have negative consequences for population size because nest failure generally results in breeding dispersal and hence reduced local population density. To test these predictions, we recorded nest predation in five species of waders for 4,745 nests during 1987-2015 at the nature reserve Tipperne, Denmark. Predation rates were generally negatively related to conspecific and heterospecific population density, but positively related to overall population density of the entire wader community. Nest predation and population density were related to ground water level, management (grazing and mowing), and nutrients. High nest predation with a time lag of one year resulted in low overall breeding population density, while high nutrient levels resulted in higher population density. These two factors accounted for 86% of the variance in population size, presumably due to effects of nest predation on emigration, while nutrient levels increased the level of vegetation cover and the abundance of food in the surrounding brackish water. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that predation may reduce population density through negative density dependence, while total nitrogen at adjacent shallow water may increase population size. Nest predation rates were reduced by high ground water level in March, grazing by cattle and mowing that affected access to and susceptibility of nests to predators. These effects can be managed to benefit breeding waders. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical.

PubMed

Campbell Grant, Evan H

2015-03-01

Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions, or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g. in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

Treesearch

David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

2004-01-01

Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

Trematode infection causes malformations and population effects in a declining New Zealand fish.

PubMed

Kelly, David W; Thomas, Harriet; Thieltges, David W; Poulin, Robert; Tompkins, Daniel M

2010-03-01

1. Animal malformations engender wide public and scientific concern because of associated environmental health risks. This is highlighted by increased incidence of limb malformations in amphibians associated with trematode infections and disturbance. Malformations may signal new emerging disease threats, but whether the phenomenon is broadly applicable across taxa, or has population-scale impacts, is unknown. 2. Malformations are widely reported in fish and, until now, have been attributed mainly to contaminants. We tested whether the trematode Telogaster opisthorchis caused severe malformations, leading to population effects, in Galaxias anomalus, a threatened New Zealand freshwater fish. 3. Experimental infection of larval fish caused increasing spinal malformation and mortality with infection intensity that closely matched field patterns. Field malformation frequency peaked in January (65%), before declining sharply in February (25%) and remaining low thereafter. 4. The peak occurred during a 'critical window' of larval development, with the decline coincident with a population crash, indicating that malformation was causing mortality in the field. 5. The occurrence of such critical developmental windows may explain why this mechanism of population impact has been overlooked. With global environmental stressors predicted to enhance trematode infections, our results show that parasite-induced malformation, and its population-scale impacts, could be more widespread than previously considered.

Evidence that disease-induced population decline changes genetic structure and alters dispersal patterns in the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Lachish, S; Miller, K J; Storfer, A; Goldizen, A W; Jones, M E

2011-01-01

Infectious disease has been shown to be a major cause of population declines in wild animals. However, there remains little empirical evidence on the genetic consequences of disease-mediated population declines, or how such perturbations might affect demographic processes such as dispersal. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) has resulted in the rapid decline of the Tasmanian devil, Sarcophilus harrisii, and threatens to cause extinction. Using 10 microsatellite DNA markers, we compared genetic diversity and structure before and after DFTD outbreaks in three Tasmanian devil populations to assess the genetic consequences of disease-induced population decline. We also used both genetic and demographic data to investigate dispersal patterns in Tasmanian devils along the east coast of Tasmania. We observed a significant increase in inbreeding (FIS pre/post-disease −0.030/0.012, P<0.05; relatedness pre/post-disease 0.011/0.038, P=0.06) in devil populations after just 2–3 generations of disease arrival, but no detectable change in genetic diversity. Furthermore, although there was no subdivision apparent among pre-disease populations (θ=0.005, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.003 to 0.017), we found significant genetic differentiation among populations post-disease (θ=0.020, 0.010–0.027), apparently driven by a combination of selection and altered dispersal patterns of females in disease-affected populations. We also show that dispersal is male-biased in devils and that dispersal distances follow a typical leptokurtic distribution. Our results show that disease can result in genetic and demographic changes in host populations over few generations and short time scales. Ongoing management of Tasmanian devils must now attempt to maintain genetic variability in this species through actions designed to reverse the detrimental effects of inbreeding and subdivision in disease-affected populations. PMID:20216571

Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

2015-06-01

Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

Estimating relative decline in populations of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) due to baiting.

PubMed

Evans, T A

2001-12-01

Although mark-recapture protocols produce inaccurate population estimates of termite colonies, they might be employed to estimate a relative change in colony size. This possibility was tested using two Australian, mound-building, wood-eating, subterranean Coptotermes species. Three different toxicants delivered in baits were used to decrease (but not eliminate) colony size, and a single mark-recapture protocol was used to estimate pre- and postbaiting population sizes. For both species, the numbers of termites retrieved from bait stations varied widely, resulting in no significant differences in the numbers of termites sampled between treatments in either the pre- or postbaiting protocols. There were significantly fewer termites sampled in all treatments, controls included, in the postbaiting protocol compared with the pre-, suggesting a seasonal change in forager numbers. The comparison of population estimates shows a large decrease in toxicant treated colonies compared with little change in control colonies, which suggests that estimating the relative decline in population size using mark-recapture protocols might to be possible. However, the change in population estimate was due entirely to the significantly lower recapture rate in the control colonies relative to the toxicant treated colonies, as numbers of unmarked termites did not change between treatments. The population estimates should be treated with caution because low recapture rates produce dubious population estimates and, in some cases, postbaiting mark-recapture population estimates could be much greater than those at prebaiting, despite consumption of bait in sufficient quantities to cause population decline. A possible interaction between fat-stain markers and toxicants should be investigated if mark-recapture population estimates are used. Alternative methods of population change are advised, along with other indirect measures.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Autosomal genetic diversity in non-breed horses from eastern Eurasia provides insights into historical population movements.

PubMed

Warmuth, Vera; Manica, Andrea; Eriksson, Anders; Barker, Graeme; Bower, Mim

2013-02-01

Many events in the history of eastern Eurasia, including the process of domestication itself, the initial spread of domestic horses and subsequent movements, are believed to have affected the genetic structure of domestic horse populations in this area. We investigated levels of within- and between-population genetic diversity in 'non-breed horses' (working horses sampled in remote areas) from 17 locations in Asia and parts of Eastern Europe, using 26 autosomal microsatellite loci. Non-breed horses have not been subject to the same intensity of artificial selection and closed breeding as have most breed animals and are thus expected to better reflect the population history of domestic horses. Despite geographic distances of between 300 and 7000 km between sampling locations, pairwise F (ST) was very low (range: <0.001 to -0.033), suggesting historically high levels of gene flow. Our analyses of non-breed horses revealed a pattern of isolation by distance and a significant decline in genetic diversity (expected heterozygosity and allelic richness) from east to west, consistent with a westward expansion of horses out of East Asia. Although the timing of this putative expansion is unclear, our results highlight the benefit of studying animals that do not belong to particular breeds when investigating aspects of a population's history. © 2012 The Authors, Animal Genetics © 2012 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

Amphibian decline and extinction: what we know and what we need to learn.

PubMed

Collins, James P

2010-11-01

For over 350 million yr, thousands of amphibian species have lived on Earth. Since the 1980s, amphibians have been disappearing at an alarming rate, in many cases quite suddenly. What is causing these declines and extinctions? In the modern era (post 1500) there are 6 leading causes of biodiversity loss in general, and all of these acting alone or together are responsible for modern amphibian declines: commercial use; introduced/exotic species that compete with, prey on, and parasitize native frogs and salamanders; land use change; contaminants; climate change; and infectious disease. The first 3 causes are historical in the sense that they have been operating for hundreds of years, although the rate of change due to each accelerated greatly after about the mid-20th century. Contaminants, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are modern causes suspected of being responsible for the so-called 'enigmatic decline' of amphibians in protected areas. Introduced/exotic pathogens, land use change, and infectious disease are the 3 causes with a clear role in amphibian decline as well as extinction; thus far, the other 3 causes are only implicated in decline and not extinction. The present work is a review of the 6 causes with a focus on pathogens and suggested areas where new research is needed. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a chytrid fungus that is an emerging infectious disease causing amphibian population decline and species extinction. Historically, pathogens have not been seen as a major cause of extinction, but Bd is an exception, which is why it is such an interesting, important pathogen to understand. The late 20th and early 21st century global biodiversity loss is characterized as a sixth extinction event. Amphibians are a striking example of these losses as they disappear at a rate that greatly exceeds historical levels. Consequently, modern amphibian decline and extinction is a lens through which we can view the larger story of biodiversity

[The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

PubMed

Banguero, H

1983-05-01

This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

Declining wild salmon populations in relation to parasites from farm salmon.

PubMed

Krkosek, Martin; Ford, Jennifer S; Morton, Alexandra; Lele, Subhash; Myers, Ransom A; Lewis, Mark A

2007-12-14

Rather than benefiting wild fish, industrial aquaculture may contribute to declines in ocean fisheries and ecosystems. Farm salmon are commonly infected with salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis), which are native ectoparasitic copepods. We show that recurrent louse infestations of wild juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), all associated with salmon farms, have depressed wild pink salmon populations and placed them on a trajectory toward rapid local extinction. The louse-induced mortality of pink salmon is commonly over 80% and exceeds previous fishing mortality. If outbreaks continue, then local extinction is certain, and a 99% collapse in pink salmon population abundance is expected in four salmon generations. These results suggest that salmon farms can cause parasite outbreaks that erode the capacity of a coastal ecosystem to support wild salmon populations.

Experimental moose reduction lowers wolf density and stops decline of endangered caribou

PubMed Central

McLellan, Bruce N.; van Oort, Harry; Mowat, Garth; Boutin, Stan

2017-01-01

The expansion of moose into southern British Columbia caused the decline and extirpation of woodland caribou due to their shared predators, a process commonly referred to as apparent competition. Using an adaptive management experiment, we tested the hypothesis that reducing moose to historic levels would reduce apparent competition and therefor recover caribou populations. Nested within this broad hypothesis were three specific hypotheses: (1) sport hunting could be used to substantially reduce moose numbers to an ecological target; (2) wolves in this ecosystem were primarily limited by moose abundance; and (3) caribou were limited by wolf predation. These hypotheses were evaluated with a before-after control-impact (BACI) design that included response metrics such as population trends and vital rates of caribou, moose, and wolves. Three caribou subpopulations were subject to the moose reduction treatment and two were in a reference area where moose were not reduced. When the moose harvest was increased, the moose population declined substantially in the treatment area (by 70%) but not the reference area, suggesting that the policy had the desired effect and was not caused by a broader climatic process. Wolf numbers subsequently declined in the treatment area, with wolf dispersal rates 2.5× greater, meaning that dispersal was the likely mechanism behind the wolf numerical response, though reduced recruitment and starvation was also documented in the treatment area. Caribou adult survival increased from 0.78 to 0.88 in the treatment area, but declined in the reference. Caribou recruitment was unaffected by the treatment. The largest caribou subpopulation stabilized in the treatment area, but declined in the reference area. The observed population stability is comparable to other studies that used intensive wolf control, but is insufficient to achieve recovery, suggesting that multiple limiting factors and corresponding management tools must be addressed

Declining Orangutan Encounter Rates from Wallace to the Present Suggest the Species Was Once More Abundant

PubMed Central

Meijaard, Erik; Welsh, Alan; Ancrenaz, Marc; Wich, Serge; Nijman, Vincent; Marshall, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

Background Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) currently occur at low densities and seeing a wild one is a rare event. Compared to present low encounter rates of orangutans, it is striking how many orangutan each day historic collectors like Alfred Russel Wallace were able to shoot continuously over weeks or even months. Does that indicate that some 150 years ago encounter rates with orangutans, or their densities, were higher than now? Methodology/Principal Findings We test this hypothesis by quantifying encounter rates obtained from hunting accounts, museum collections, and recent field studies, and analysing whether there is a declining trend over time. Logistic regression analyses of our data support such a decline on Borneo between the mid-19th century and the present. Even when controlled for variation in the size of survey and hunting teams and the durations of expeditions, mean daily encounter rates appear to have declined about 6-fold in areas with little or no forest disturbance. Conclusions/Significance This finding has potential consequences for our understanding of orangutans, because it suggests that Bornean orangutans once occurred at higher densities. We explore potential explanations—habitat loss and degradation, hunting, and disease—and conclude that hunting fits the observed patterns best. This suggests that hunting has been underestimated as a key causal factor of orangutan density and distribution, and that species population declines have been more severe than previously estimated based on habitat loss only. Our findings may require us to rethink the biology of orangutans, with much of our ecological understanding possibly being based on field studies of animals living at lower densities than they did historically. Our approach of quantifying species encounter rates from historic data demonstrates that this method can yield valuable information about the ecology and population density of species in the past, providing new insight into

Prevalence of ageing-associated cognitive decline in an elderly population.

PubMed

Hanninen, T; Koivisto, K; Reinikainen, K J; Helkala, E L; Soininen, H; Mykkänen, L; Laakso, M; Riekkinen, P J

1996-05-01

Different diagnostic definitions have been proposed for use in the characterization of mild cognitive disorders associated with ageing. Previously, we reported a high (38.4%) prevalence of age-associated memory impairment (AAMI) using the National Institute of Mental Health criteria in an elderly population. Recently, a work group of the International Psychogeriatric Association proposed criteria for 'ageing-associated cognitive decline' (AACD). The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of AACD in an elderly population. We examined 403 randomly selected subjects (68-78 years of age) with tests of memory, cognitive processing, attention, verbal and visuoconstructive functions and with a structured questionnaire for health status and subjective complaints of cognitive decline. In all, 26.6% of the subjects (24.4% of women, 30. 1% or men) fulfilled the AACD criteria. The prevalence was slightly related to age and education. The rate was lowest in the oldest age of 75 - 78 years (20.5%) and highest in the age of 71 -74 years (30%). Subjects with less than 4 years of education had the lowest (14.3%) and subjects with more than 6 years of education had the highest rate (29.4%) for AACD. However, the differences between these subgroups were not statistically significant. These results suggest that the prevalence of AACD is lower than that of AAMI. As AAMI tends to identify a very heterogeneous subject group, the AACD diagnosis, which takes into account age and education specific norms in its inclusion criteria, might prove superior to AAMI in differentiating a meaningful subgroup from an elderly population both for research purposes and in clinical settings.

Toxicity of two insecticides to California, USA, anurans and its relevance to declining amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, D.W.; Fellers, G.M.

2009-01-01

Contaminants have been associated with population declines of several amphibian species in California (USA). Pesticides from the Central Valley of California are transported by winds into the Sierra Nevada Mountains and precipitate into wet meadows where amphibians breed. The present study examined the chronic toxicity of two of the insecticides most commonly used in the Central Valley and found in the mountains, chlorpyrifos and endosulfan, to larval Pacific treefrogs (Pseudacris regilla) and foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) and discusses the implications of this toxicity to declining amphibian populations. Larvae were exposed to the pesticides from Gosner stages 25 to 26 through metamorphosis. The estimated median lethal concentration (LC50) for chlorpyrifos was 365 ??g/L in P. regilla and 66.5 ??g/L for R. boylii. Time to metamorphosis increased with concentration of chlorpyrifos in both species, and cholinesterase activity declined with exposure concentration in metamorphs of both species at Gosner stages 42 to 46. For endosulfan, the estimated LC50 was 15.6 ??g/L for P. regilla and 0.55 ??g/L for R. boylii. All R. boylii exposed to concentrations of greater than 0.8 ??g/L died before they entered metamorphosis. Pseudacris regilla remains relatively abundant and is broadly distributed throughout California. In contrast, R. boylii is among the species experiencing severe population declines. The present study adds to the increasing evidence that pesticides are very harmful to amphibians living in areas that are miles from sources of pesticide application. ?? 2009 SETAC.

Population-specific demographic estimates provide insights into declines of Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.

2007-01-01

Many North American prairie bird populations have recently declined, and the causes of these declines remain largely unknown. To determine whether population limitation occurs during breeding, we evaluated the stability of a population of prairie birds using population-specific values for fecundity and postfledging survival. During 2001-2003, we radiomarked 67 female Lark Buntings (Calamospiza melanocorys) to determine annual fecundity and evaluate contributing factors such as nest survival and breeding response (number of breeding attempts and dispersal). Collectively, 67 females built 112 nests (1.67 ± 0.07 nests female−1 season−1; range: 1–3); 34 were second nests and 11 were third nests. Daily nest survival estimates were similar for initial and later nests with overall nest survival (DSR19) of 30.7% and 31.7%, respectively. Nest predation was the most common cause of failure (92%). Capture and radiomarking of females did not affect nest survival. Lark Bunting dispersal probabilities increased among females that fledged young from initial nests and females that lost their original nests late in the season. Conservative and liberal estimates of mean annual fecundity were 0.96 ±0.11 and 1.24 ± 0.09 female offspring per female, respectively. Given the fecundity and juvenile-survival estimates for this population, annual adult survival values of 71–77% are necessary to achieve a stable population. Because adult survival of prairie passerines ranges between 55% and 65%, this study area may not be capable of sustaining a stable population in the absence of immigration. We contrast our population assessment with one that assumes indirect values of fecundity and juvenile survival. To elucidate limiting factors, estimation of population-specific demographic parameters is desirable. We present an approach for selecting species and areas for evaluation of population stability.

Comparative phylogeny and historical perspectives on population genetics of the Pacific hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas), inferred from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan.

PubMed

Nishizawa, Hideaki; Okuyama, Junichi; Kobayashi, Masato; Abe, Osamu; Arai, Nobuaki

2010-01-01

Mitochondrial DNA sequence polymorphisms and patterns of genetic diversity represent the genealogy and relative impacts of historical, geographic, and demographic events on populations. In this study, historical patterns of population dynamics and differentiation in hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Pacific were estimated from feeding populations in the Yaeyama Islands, Japan. Phylogenetic relationships of the haplotypes indicated that hawksbill and green turtles in the Pacific probably underwent very similar patterns and processes of population dynamics over the last million years, with population subdivision during the early Pleistocene and population expansion after the last glacial maximum. These significant contemporary historical events were suggested to have been caused by climatic and sea-level fluctuations. On the other hand, comparing our results to long-term population dynamics in the Atlantic, population subdivisions during the early Pleistocene were specific to Pacific hawksbill and green turtles. Therefore, regional differences in historical population dynamics are suggested. Despite limited sampling locations, these results are the first step in estimating the historical trends in Pacific sea turtles by using phylogenetics and population genetics.

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

PubMed

Dufresnes, Christophe; Wassef, Jérôme; Ghali, Karim; Brelsford, Alan; Stöck, Matthias; Lymberakis, Petros; Crnobrnja-Isailovic, Jelka; Perrin, Nicolas

2013-11-01

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long-term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late-Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia ('refugia within refugia') and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mixed fortunes: ancient expansion and recent decline in population size of a subtropical montane primate, the Arunachal macaque Macaca munzala.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Debapriyo; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2014-01-01

Quaternary glacial oscillations are known to have caused population size fluctuations in many temperate species. Species from subtropical and tropical regions are, however, considerably less studied, despite representing most of the biodiversity hotspots in the world including many highly threatened by anthropogenic activities such as hunting. These regions, consequently, pose a significant knowledge gap in terms of how their fauna have typically responded to past climatic changes. We studied an endangered primate, the Arunachal macaque Macaca munzala, from the subtropical southern edge of the Tibetan plateau, a part of the Eastern Himalaya biodiversity hotspot, also known to be highly threatened due to rampant hunting. We employed a 534 bp-long mitochondrial DNA sequence and 22 autosomal microsatellite loci to investigate the factors that have potentially shaped the demographic history of the species. Analysing the genetic data with traditional statistical methods and advance Bayesian inferential approaches, we demonstrate a limited effect of past glacial fluctuations on the demographic history of the species before the last glacial maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. This was, however, immediately followed by a significant population expansion possibly due to warmer climatic conditions, approximately 15,000 years ago. These changes may thus represent an apparent balance between that displayed by the relatively climatically stable tropics and those of the more severe, temperate environments of the past. This study also draws attention to the possibility that a cold-tolerant species like the Arunachal macaque, which could withstand historical climate fluctuations and grow once the climate became conducive, may actually be extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic exploitation, as is perhaps indicated by its Holocene ca. 30-fold population decline, approximately 3,500 years ago. Our study thus provides a quantitative appraisal of these demographically important

Attributing mortality among drivers of population decline in Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. E.; Miller, M. W.

2012-06-01

Acropora palmata populations have experienced steep declines over the past 30 years. Although numerous culprits are recognized, their relative contributions to the decline are poorly quantified, making it difficult to prioritize effective conservation measures. In 2004, a demographic monitoring program was implemented in the Florida Keys (USA), aimed at determining the relative importance of various stressors affecting A. palmata. A subset of randomly selected A. palmata colonies within 15 fore-reef plots was tagged and surveyed three to four times per year over 7 years. Colony size, live tissue, prevalence of disease, snail ( Coralliophila abbreviata) predation, physical damage and other conditions were assessed at each survey. The estimated effect of each condition causing recent mortality was ranked, and together, these parameters were used to attribute the population-level tissue loss associated with each condition. In addition, all new colonies in the study plots were counted and assessed annually in order to track trends in total colony count and live tissue abundance. Between 2004 and 2010, the study population has shown more than 50% decline in live area from three main conditions: fragmentation, disease and snail predation. Approximately half of this decline occurred during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season from which recovery has been minimal. Meanwhile, colony abundance has shown gradual decline throughout the study. Snail predation was the most prevalent condition. However, it ranked third in attributed tissue loss, behind breakage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season, and disease. Thermal bleaching of A. palmata was not observed during this study. Because mortality continues to outpace recruitment and growth, intervention to ameliorate losses to the more manageable threats including predation and breakage could result in substantial conservation of live tissue, buying time for the abatement of less tractable threats to A. palmata

QUALIFYING VARIATION IN RISKS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME TO POPULATIONS OF THE COMMON LOON

EPA Science Inventory

As part of a larger project to evaluate methods for assessing risks to wildlife populations we are investigating patterns of mortality in populations of the common loon (Gavia immer) in New England. Regionally, loon populations have declined from historic levels and despite rece...

Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines.

PubMed

Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Dirzo, Rodolfo

2017-07-25

The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high-even in "species of low concern." In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a "biological annihilation" to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.

Demographic stochasticity in small remnant populations of the declining distylous plant Primula veris

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.; Schmid, B.

2003-01-01

We studied ecological consequences of distyly for the declining perennial plant Primula veris in the Swiss Jura. Distyly favours cross-fertilization and avoids inbreeding, but may lead to pollen limitation and reduced reproduction if morph frequencies deviate from 50 %. Disassortative mating is promoted by the reciprocal position of stigmas and anthers in the two morphs (pin and thrum) and by intramorph incompatibility and should result in equal frequencies of morphs at equilibrium. However, deviations could arise because of demographic stochasticity, the lower intra-morph incompatibility of the pin morph, and niche differentiation between morphs. Demographic stochasticity should result in symmetric deviations from an even morph frequency among populations and in increased deviations with decreasing population size. If crosses between pins occurred, these would only generate pins, and this could result in a pin-bias of morph frequencies in general and in small populations in particular. If the morphs have different niches, morph frequencies should be related to environmental factors, morphs might be spatially segregated, and morphological differences between morphs would be expected. We tested these hypotheses in the declining distylous P. veris. We studied morph frequencies in relation to environmental conditions and population size, spatial segregation in field populations, morphological differences between morphs, and growth responses to nutrient addition. Morph frequencies in 76 populations with 1 - 80000 flowering plants fluctuated symmetrically about 50 %. Deviations from 50 % were much larger in small populations, and sixof the smallest populations had lost one morph altogether. In contrast, morph frequencies were neither related to population size nor to 17 measures of environmental conditions. We found no spatial segregation or morphological differences in the field or in the common garden. The results suggest that demographic stochasticity caused

Achieving population-level violence declines: implications of the international crime drop for prevention programming.

PubMed

Eisner, Manuel; Nivette, Amy; Murray, Aja Louise; Krisch, Maria

2016-09-01

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations for the period 2016-2030 aim to achieve a substantial reduction of interpersonal violence. An increasing body of evidence of what works, emerging from randomized controlled trials, can inform public health policy decisions. However, there is very limited evidence on the kinds of mechanisms that lead to sustained declines in interpersonal violence at the population level. We discuss the implications of what is known about recent major declines in violence to guide violence-reduction policies.

Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

PubMed

Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

2016-02-01

The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Chronic wasting disease drives population decline of white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edmunds, David; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Schumaker, Brant; Lindzey, Frederick G.; Cook, Walter; Kreeger, Terry J.; Grogan, Ronald; Cornish, Todd

2016-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an invariably fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of white-tailed deer, mule deer, elk, and moose. Despite a 100% fatality rate, areas of high prevalence, and increasingly expanding geographic endemic areas, little is known about the population-level effects of CWD in deer. To investigate these effects, we tested the null hypothesis that high prevalence CWD did not negatively impact white-tailed deer population sustainability. The specific objectives of the study were to monitor CWD-positive and CWD-negative white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD area longitudinally via radio-telemetry and global positioning system (GPS) collars. For the two populations, we determined the following: a) demographic and disease indices, b) annual survival, and c) finite rate of population growth (λ). The CWD prevalence was higher in females (42%) than males (28.8%) and hunter harvest and clinical CWD were the most frequent causes of mortality, with CWD-positive deer over-represented in harvest and total mortalities. Survival was significantly lower for CWD-positive deer and separately by sex; CWD-positive deer were 4.5 times more likely to die annually than CWD-negative deer while bucks were 1.7 times more likely to die than does. Population λ was 0.896 (0.859–0.980), which indicated a 10.4% annual decline. We show that a chronic disease that becomes endemic in wildlife populations has the potential to be population-limiting and the strong population-level effects of CWD suggest affected populations are not sustainable at high disease prevalence under current harvest levels.

Historical declines and disparities in cigarette coupon saving among adolescents in the United States, 1997-2013.

PubMed

Owotomo, Olusegun; Maslowsky, Julie; Pasch, Keryn E

2017-07-01

Exposure to cigarette coupons is associated with smoking initiation and likelihood of cigarette purchase among adolescents. Some adolescents who are exposed to cigarette coupons take a step further by choosing to save or collect these coupons, a further risk factor for cigarette smoking. This study examines historical trends and disparities in cigarette coupon saving among adolescents in the United States from 1997 to 2013. National samples of 10th and 12th grade students (n=129,111) were obtained from Monitoring the Future surveys in 1997-2013. Prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette coupon saving was estimated in each year in the overall adolescent population, and in race/ethnicity, parent education level, sex, and urban/rural subgroups. Prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette coupon saving was then estimated in each year based on smoking status. Prevalence of cigarette coupon saving has decreased dramatically among adolescents; only 1.2% reported currently saving coupons in 2013. However, disparities in cigarette coupon saving remain with prevalence higher among rural, White, and low parental education level students. Adolescent smokers continue to save coupons at high rates; 21.2% had ever saved coupons and 6.9% currently saved coupons as of 2013. Despite overall declines in adolescent cigarette coupon saving, existing sociodemographic disparities and the considerably high prevalence of coupon saving among adolescent smokers suggest that cigarette coupons remain a threat to smoking prevention among youth. Additional research is needed to further elucidate longitudinal associations between cigarette coupon saving and smoking initiation and maintenance among adolescents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

Treesearch

Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

2015-01-01

We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

Pesticide Distributions and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs, Rana Muscosa and Rana Sierrae

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospherically deposited pesticides from the intensively cultivated Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the frogs Rana muscosa and Rana sierrae at high elevation in th...

Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

PubMed

Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

2012-03-01

1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of

Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

PubMed Central

Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

2017-01-01

The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event. PMID:28696295

Long-term decline of the populations of Fucales (Cystoseira spp. and Sargassum spp.) in the Albères coast (France, North-western Mediterranean).

PubMed

Thibaut, Thierry; Pinedo, Susana; Torras, Xavier; Ballesteros, Enric

2005-12-01

Only five of fourteen species of Fucales reported at the end of the XIXth century are currently present in the Albères Coast (France, NW Mediterranean). According to historical data there has been a steady decrease of all the populations since the 1940s. Seven taxa now extinct (Cystoseira crinita, Cystoseira barbata, Cystoseira foeniculacea f. tenuiramosa, Cystoseira spinosa, Cystoseira spinosa var. compressa, Sargassum hornschuchii and Sargassum vulgare) were considered frequent and some of them were the dominant and engineering species in several phytobenthic assemblages. Moreover, only one of the five species left, shows no signs of regression (Cystoseira compressa), two are considered as rare (Cystoseira caespitosa, Cystoseira zosteroides), and one is very rare (Cystoseira elegans). Cystoseira mediterranea, a species that was reported to make a continuous belt along the shores of the Albères coast, has almost disappeared from some areas. Overgrazing by sea urchins, outcompetition by mussels, habitat destruction, scientific research sampling and, probably, human trampling and chemical pollution are to be blamed for the decline of populations thriving in shallow waters. Deep-water species have been affected by an increase in water turbidity and, probably, chemical pollution and direct plant destruction attributed to net fishing. If degradation of the environmental conditions continues, the remaining Cystoseira species will face a most unwelcome prospect. Even after the removal of the causes that led to its die-off, natural restoration of extinct species seems not to be possible because the decline has also affected populations from nearby areas and zygotes are unable to disperse over long distances. Urgent management actions have to be designed in order to improve the current situation of the populations of Fucales in the Albères coast.

Declining brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity

Treesearch

W. Andrew Cox; Frank R., III Thompson; Brian Root; John Faaborg; Csaba Moskat

2012-01-01

Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce...

Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

Treesearch

Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

2014-01-01

Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Managing habitat to slow or reverse population declines of the Columbia spotted frog in the Northern Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Richard D. Scherer,

2015-01-01

Evaluating the effectiveness of habitat management actions is critical to adaptive management strategies for conservation of imperiled species. We quantified the response of a Great Basin population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) to multiple habitat improvement actions aimed to reduce threats and reverse population declines. We used mark-recapture data for 1,394 adult frogs that had been marked by state, federal, and university biologists in 9 ponds representing a single population over a 16-year period from 1997 to 2012. With the use of demographic models, we assessed population-level effects of 1) a grazing exclosure constructed around 6 stock ponds that had been used to water livestock for decades before being fully fenced in 2003, and 2) the construction of 3 new stock ponds in 2003 to provide alternative water sources for livestock and, secondarily, to provide additional frog habitat. These management actions were implemented in response to a decline of more than 80% in population size from 1997 to 2002. We found evidence that excluding cattle from ponds and surrounding riparian habitats resulted in higher levels of frog production (more egg masses), higher adult frog recruitment and survival, and higher population growth rate. We also found that frogs colonized the newly constructed stock ponds within 3 years and frogs began breeding in 2 of them after 5 years. The positive effects of the cattle exclosure and additional production from the new ponds, although notable, did not result in full recovery of the population even 9 years later. This slow recovery may be partly explained by the effects of weather on recruitment rates, particularly the negative effects of harsher winters with late springs and higher fall temperatures. Although our findings point to potential successes of habitat management aimed at slowing or reversing rapidly declining frog populations, our study also suggests that recovering from severe population declines can take

Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perry, Marc

2002-01-01

Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

What caused the population decline of the Bridled White-eye on Rota, Mariana Islands?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fancy, Steven G.; Snetsinger, Thomas J.

2001-01-01

The Bridled White-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus rotensis) was Once thought to be common and widespread on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, but is now restricted to several patches of native limestone forest in and adjacent to the Sabana region. Surveys conducted in 1990 indicated that the population had declined by 87% between 1982 and 1990 for unknown reasons. The low density and restricted habitat association of the Bridled White-eye on Rota contrasts with the situation on Saipan, Tinian, Agiguan, and formerly on Guam, where the Bridled White-eye is the most common forest bird and occurs at all elevations and in all habitat types. We surveyed the entire range of the Rota Bridled White-eye in 1996 to estimate its current numbers and distribution. We also reviewed existing information on the white-eye and evaluated potential causes of its decline, including predation by Black Drongos (Dicrurus macrocercus), rats (Rattus spp.), and the brown tree snake Boiga irregularis); pesticides; avian disease; and habitat loss and alteration. We found that 94% of the extant population of 1,165 white-eyes on Rota was restricted to four patches of old-growth, native limestone forest covering only 259 ha. We believe that the population decline and current localized distribution is primarily a result of habitat changes due to agricultural development and typhoons, but the absence of white-eyes from several stands of native forest above 200 m remains unexplained. The Rota white-eye may be a different species from white-eyes found on Saipan, Tinian, Agiguan, and Guam, with different habitat preferences.

Educational Inequality in the United States: Methodology and Historical Estimation of Education Gini Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennett, Daniel L.

2011-01-01

This paper estimates historical measures of equality in the distribution of education in the United States by age group and sex. Using educational attainment data for the population, the EduGini measure indicates that educational inequality in the U.S. declined significantly between 1950 and 2009. Reductions in educational inequality were more…

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2018-01-01

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: Causal connection or spurious correlation?

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Eric C. Lofroth; Jeffrey P. Copeland; Keith B. Aubry; Audrey J. Magoun

2010-01-01

The recent paper by Brodie and Post ("Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack", Popul Ecol 52:279-287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine's (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data...

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

Local extirpations and regional declines of endemic upper beach invertebrates in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, D. M.; Dugan, J. E.; Schooler, N. K.; Viola, S. M.

2014-10-01

Along the world's highly valued and populous coastlines, the upper intertidal zones of sandy beach ecosystems and the biodiversity that these zones support are increasingly threatened by impacts of human activities, coastal development, erosion, and climate change. The upper zones of beaches typically support invertebrates with restricted distributions and dispersal, making them particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesized that disproportionate loss or degradation of these zones in the last century has resulted in declines of upper shore macroinvertebrates in southern California. We identified a suite of potentially vulnerable endemic upper beach invertebrates with direct development, low dispersal and late reproduction. Based on the availability of printed sources and museum specimens, we investigated historical changes in distribution and abundance of two intertidal isopod species (Tylos punctatus, Alloniscus perconvexus) in southern California. Populations of these isopods have been extirpated at numerous historically occupied sites: T. punctatus from 16 sites (57% decrease), and A. perconvexus from 14 sites (64% decrease). During the same period, we found evidence of only five colonization events. In addition, the northern range limit of the southern species, T. punctatus, moved south by 31 km (8% of range on California mainland) since 1971. Abundances of T. punctatus have declined on the mainland coast; only three recently sampled populations had abundances >7000 individuals m-1. For A. perconvexus populations, abundances >100 individuals m-1 now appear to be limited to the northern part of the study area. Our results show that numerous local extirpations of isopod populations have resulted in regional declines and in greatly reduced population connectivity in several major littoral cells of southern California. Two of the six major littoral cells (Santa Barbara and Zuma) in the area currently support 74% of the remaining isopod

The Decline of Black Farming in America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Browning, Pamela; And Others

The rapid decline in the number of farms operated by blacks in the United States, and the consequences of this decline on the conditions of black farmers are the focus of this report. Chapter 1 compares the rate of agricultural land loss from 1900 to 1978 among blacks and whites. Chapter 2 outlines historical conditions, such as racism, lack of…

The Dilemma of Decline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramowitz, Susan

This paper, one of two related documents, examines the impact of declining enrollments on educational expenditures. It highlights population and social changes that have contributed to the decline and discusses the general financing of schools. Finally, the paper discusses strategies state policymakers can use to manage decline, including…

Microbial infections in a declining wild turkey population in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocke, T.E.; Yuill, Thomas M.

1987-01-01

A survey was conducted at 5 locations in Texas for avian pathogens that might adversely affect wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) productivity and survival. At 1 site, the Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Refuge (WWR), turkeys have declined precipitously in recent years. During the winters of 1983-85, 442 wild turkeys were caught with cannon and drop nets, 161 of these on WWR. Blood samples were drawn for serologic evaluation, and cloacal and tracheal swabs were collected for isolation attempts. Salmonella spp. bacteria, Newcastle disease virus (NDV), and avian influenza virus (AIV) were not detected in any samples tested. Serologic tests for antibodies to NDV and AIV also were negative. Many mycoplasma isolates were recovered from turkeys from every location. Characterization of these isolates indicated that several species were present. None were species typically associated with mycoplasmosis in domestic turkeys, such as Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), M. meleagridis (MM), or M. synoviae (MS), although antibodies to these pathogens were detected in turkeys at every location sampled. There was no evidence to link any of these disease causing agents to the decline observed in the population of wild turkeys on the WWR.

Some economic consequences of an ageing and declining population in Denmark.

PubMed

Leeson, G W

1983-01-01

Figures for 1981 indicate that Denmark has a fertility level of 1.45 which has been below replacement level since 1968. In that same time period, natural increase has decreased from over 27,000 in 1968 to only 1354 in 1980 and a negative natural increase in 1981 with deaths outnumbering births by 3001. Even during the depression in the 1930's, net population increase was between 6-9/1000 with a fertility level which hovered around replacement level. At that time, the number of females in the childbearing ages was enough to provide population growth, whereas the number is much less today. Population increase is only 0.3/1000. The national population projections for Denmark for 1981-2010 assume an increase in the fertility level from 1.45-1.70 by 1991 after which it remains constant. The number of 20-39 year olds increased steadily until 1945 after which there was a decline as the cohorts from periods with low fertility levels entered this age group, but this was again followed by a steady increase to the present day. The number of females aged 0-39 years is expected to decrease in all age groups to the year 2000. Those aged 40-59 increased in numbers from 1920 to the mid 1960s, since then they have decreased in number, but an increase is forcast for the remainder of the century. The number of elderly females also increased steadily from 1930-80, from about 200,000 to over 550,000; this is expected to continue until 1990 when a short-term decline will set in. Regarding the economic and social consequences of these trends, it is shown that the present decline in fertility has its origins in a period of low unemployment and its negative growth while there was still relatively low unemployment and economic growth. In 1973 the unemployed rate was 0.9% of the work force and this rose to 9.2% in 1981. The Danish population has aged from one with 1/4 million people aged 60 and over at the turn of the century to about 1 million of that age today. Also, the aged themselves

Local and global influences on population declines of coastal waders: Purple Sandpiper Calidris maritima numbers in the Moray Firth, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Ron W.; Foster, Simon; Swann, Bob; Etheridge, Brian

2012-05-01

Declines in numbers by several wader species in Britain have been linked to climate change, but the mechanism for the declines has rarely been explored. Britain lies at the northern end of the East Atlantic Flyway, and supports 1.3 million out of the Flyway's 8.5 million coastal waders (Charadrii) in winter and the Purple Sandpiper is one of the species whose numbers have declined. Here, we examine the dynamics of the decline as observed in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland, investigating whether the decline was due to poorer apparent survival (return rate) or poorer recruitment of young birds. The maximum number in the Moray Firth declined from 860 in 1987/88 to 236 in 2006/07, with some increase during winters 2007/08 and 2008/09. At the three main high-tide roosts (Balintore, Lossiemouth and Buckie) the maximum combined number declined from 574 to 90. Changes in survival and recruitment (percentage of first-year birds) were examined at these roosts from captured samples, which were ringed and recaptured. There were no significant changes between winters in survival rates, nor were there differences between the survival rates of age groups (first-year and adult) or bill size groups, which represented birds of different sex and breeding origin. Annual survival estimates for the three roosts ranged from 72 to 77%. The percentage of first-year birds varied among roosts and years; the lowest values were during the late 1980s/early 1990s and early 2000s. A free-running population model incorporating varying percentages of first-year birds and constant mortality for each roost provided a plausible explanation for the decline. Although modelled numbers followed the observed pattern, a discrepancy in one year was carried forward in subsequent years, so that the fit with the observed numbers was parallel rather than similar. However, it seems that the decline in numbers was largely due to poorer recruitment. We discuss whether breeding success had declined, whether the

Historical review: Does falciparum malaria destroy isolated tribal populations?

PubMed

Shanks, G Dennis

Many isolated populations of tribal peoples were nearly destroyed when they first contacted infectious diseases particularly respiratory pathogens such as measles and smallpox. Surviving groups have often been found to have declining populations in the face of multiple social and infectious threats. Malaria, especially Plasmodium falciparum, was thought to be a major cause of depopulation in some tribal peoples isolated in tropical jungles. The dynamics of such host parasite interactions is unclear especially since most such populations would have had long histories of exposure to malaria. Three groups are individually reviewed: Meruts of Borneo, Yanomami of Amazonia, Jarawas of the Andaman Islands. The purpose of this review is to examine the role of falciparum malaria in the depopulation of some isolated tribal groups in order to understand what measures, if any, would be likely to prevent such losses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fish and fisheries in the Lower Rhine 1550-1950: A historical-ecological perspective.

PubMed

Lenders, H J Rob

2017-11-01

Regulation and intensive use of most of the world's large rivers, has led to dramatic decline and even to extinction of riverine fish populations like salmon and sturgeon in the river Rhine. In general this decline is considered an unwelcome side-effect of the Industrial Revolution and large-scale river regulation (c. 1800), but the deterioration of stocks of some species may have started well before the 19th century. For the river Rhine, data on fish landings as proxies of abundance in the period 1550-1950 can be derived from historical market prices, fisheries taxation and fishery and fish auctions statistics, especially for commercially interesting species like Atlantic salmon, sturgeon, Allis shad and Twaite shad. Most data from which abundance of these species can be derived, however, appear to be missing in historical sources until decline of the investigated species sets in and the species become economically scarce goods. Atlantic salmon in the Rhine catchment appears to be already in decline during Early Modern Times (post 1500 AD) after which time river regulation, pollution and intensified fisheries finished off the remaining stocks in the 20th century. Salmon decline caused a cascade in the River Rhine ecosystem as fisheries shifted to, especially, Allis shad and Twaite shad, followed by (near-)extinction of these species. Dropping yields of salmon fishery did not lead to increased sturgeon fishery, although numbers of sturgeon also dwindled to extinction in the river Rhine. The onset of sturgeon decline appears to coincide with the period of the first large regulation works. It is shown that historical-ecological data on fish abundance can quantitatively underpin detrimental long-term processes in river ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

2009-01-01

Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Multi-decadal Decline of Southeast United States Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, M.; Huffaker, R.; Elliott, E. A.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented population growth combined with environmental and energy demands have led to water conflict in the Southeastern United States. The states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama have recently engaged in litigation on minimum in-stream flows to maintain ecosystems, fisheries and energy demands while satisfying a growing thirst in metropolitan Atlanta. A study of Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) streamflow identified a declining pattern of flow over the past 25 years with increased dry periods being observed in the last decade. When evaluating calendar year streamflow for (56) unimpaired streamflow stations, a robust period of streamflow in the 1970's was followed by a consistent decline in streamflow from 1990 to present. In evaluating 20-year, 10-year and 5-year time periods of annual streamflow volume, the past decade reveals historic lows for each of these periods. When evaluating the influence of high frequency (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) and low frequency (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation - AMO) climatic phenomenon, the shift of the AMO from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990's combined with multiple La Nina events may be associated with the streamflow decline.

Pre-Whaling Genetic Diversity and Population Ecology in Eastern Pacific Gray Whales: Insights from Ancient DNA and Stable Isotopes

PubMed Central

Alter, S. Elizabeth; Newsome, Seth D.; Palumbi, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ∼5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region) and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size. PMID:22590499

Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline of breeding success in a tropical wild bird population

PubMed Central

Cartwright, Samantha J; Nicoll, Malcolm A C; Jones, Carl G; Tatayah, Vikash; Norris, Ken

2014-01-01

Habitat conversion for agriculture is a major driver of biodiversity loss, but our understanding of the demographic processes involved remains poor. We typically investigate the impacts of agriculture in isolation even though populations are likely to experience multiple, concurrent changes in the environment (e.g. land and climate change). Drivers of environmental change may interact to affect demography, but the mechanisms have yet to be explored fully in wild populations. Here, we investigate the mechanisms linking agricultural land use with breeding success using long-term data for the formerly Critically Endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, a tropical forest specialist that also occupies agricultural habitats. We specifically focused on the relationship between breeding success, agriculture and the timing of breeding because the latter is sensitive to changes in climatic conditions (spring rainfall) and enables us to explore the interactive effects of different (land and climate) drivers of environmental change. Breeding success, measured as egg survival to fledging, declines seasonally in this population, but we found that the rate of this decline became increasingly rapid as the area of agriculture around a nest site increased. If the relationship between breeding success and agriculture was used in isolation to estimate the demographic impact of agriculture, it would significantly under-estimate breeding success in dry (early) springs and over-estimate breeding success in wet (late) springs. Analysis of prey delivered to nests suggests that the relationship between breeding success and agriculture might be due, in part, to spatial variation in the availability of native, arboreal geckos. Synthesis and applications. Agriculture modifies the seasonal decline in breeding success in this population. As springs are becoming wetter in our study area and since the kestrels breed later in wetter springs, the impact of agriculture on breeding success will

Exposure of harbour seals Phoca vitulina to Brucella in declining populations across Scotland.

PubMed

Kershaw, Joanna L; Stubberfield, Emma J; Foster, Geoffrey; Brownlow, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa J; Perrett, Lorraine L

2017-09-20

Since 2000 there has been a major decline in the abundance of Scottish harbour seals Phoca vitulina. The causes of the decline remain uncertain. The aim of this study was to establish the extent to which the seals in the regions of greatest decline have been exposed to Brucella, a bacterial pathogen that causes reproductive failure in terrestrial mammalian hosts. Tissues from dead seals collected between 1992 and 2013 were cultured for Brucella (n = 150). Serum samples collected from live capture-released seals (n = 343) between 1997 and 2012 were tested for Brucella antibodies using the Rose Bengal plate agglutination test (RBT) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). In total, 16% of seals cultured had Brucella isolated from one or more tissues, but there were no pathological signs of infection. The cELISA results were more sensitive than the RBT results, showing that overall 25.4% of seals were seropositive, with the highest seroprevalence in juveniles. As there was no evidence of either a higher seroprevalence or higher circulating antibody levels in seropositive animals in the areas with the greatest declines, it was concluded that Brucella infection is likely not a major contributing factor to recent declines. However, the consistently high proportion of seals exposed to Brucella indicates possible endemicity in these populations, likely due to B. pinnipedialis, which has demonstrated a preference for pinniped hosts. Importantly, given the close proximity between seals, humans and livestock in many areas, there is the potential for cross-species infections.

Population trends of Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plentovich, S.; Morton, J.M.; Bart, J.; Camp, R.J.; Lusk, M.; Johnson, N.; VanderWerf, E.

2005-01-01

Endemic to the islands of Guam and Rota in the Mariana Islands, Mariana Crow Corvus kubaryi is the only corvid in Micronesia. Currently, it survives on Guam only because of translocation of individuals from Rota (1999-2003). Island-wide surveys in 1982 and 1995 on Rota yielded population estimates of 1,348 and 592 respectively, indicating a 56% decrease in only 13 years. A sharp decline in the only viable Mariana Crow population has serious implications for conservation efforts on Rota and for efforts to re-establish the Guam population. However, the validity of the apparent decline has been debated among scientists and government management agencies. We augmented the 1982 and 1995 island-wide VCP surveys with (1) an additional island-wide survey conducted in 1998, and (2) roadside surveys conducted during 1991-1993 and again during 1999-2002. We also outline historical changes in Rota's limestone forest based on aerial photographs and historical information. Data from all surveys indicate a significant decline in the Mariana Crow population. Declines occurred especially along the north-central coast and in the area east of the airport known as As Dudo in the 1990s, but the data indicate an island-wide decline over the entire span of the surveys. introduced predators, human persecution, and habitat loss and degradation by anthropogenic and natural causes have all contributed to the decline. Long-term preservation of this species will require effective brown treesnake Boiga irregularis control, habitat protection, continued monitoring and research, and increased public education and awareness of Rota's rare and endangered species. ?? BirdLife International 2005.

The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

PubMed

Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

2015-03-01

Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

State of pine decline in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Lori Eckhardt; Mary Anne Sword Sayer; Don Imm

2010-01-01

Pine decline is an emerging forest health issue in the southeastern United States. Observations suggest pine decline is caused by environmental stress arising from competition, weather, insects and fungi, anthropogenic disturbances, and previous management. The problem is most severe for loblolly pine on sites that historically supported longleaf pine, are highly...

Ancient DNA reveals genetic stability despite demographic decline: 3,000 years of population history in the endemic Hawaiian petrel.

PubMed

Welch, Andreanna J; Wiley, Anne E; James, Helen F; Ostrom, Peggy H; Stafford, Thomas W; Fleischer, Robert C

2012-12-01

In the Hawaiian Islands, human colonization, which began approximately 1,200 to 800 years ago, marks the beginning of a period in which nearly 75% of the endemic avifauna became extinct and the population size and range of many additional species declined. It remains unclear why some species persisted whereas others did not. The endemic Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis) has escaped extinction, but colonies on two islands have been extirpated and populations on remaining islands have contracted. We obtained mitochondrial DNA sequences from 100 subfossil bones, 28 museum specimens, and 289 modern samples to investigate patterns of gene flow and temporal changes in the genetic diversity of this endangered species over the last 3,000 years, as Polynesians and then Europeans colonized the Hawaiian Islands. Genetic differentiation was found to be high between both modern and ancient petrel populations. However, gene flow was substantial between the extirpated colonies on Oahu and Molokai and modern birds from the island of Lanai. No significant reductions in genetic diversity occurred over this period, despite fears in the mid-1900s that this species may have been extinct. Simulations show that even a decline to a stable effective population size of 100 individuals would result in the loss of only 5% of the expected heterozygosity. Simulations also show that high levels of genetic diversity may be retained due to the long generation time of this species. Such decoupling between population size and genetic diversity in long-lived species can have important conservation implications. It appears that a pattern of dispersal from declining colonies, in addition to long generation time, may have allowed the Hawaiian petrel to escape a severe genetic bottleneck, and the associated extinction vortex, and persist despite a large population decline after human colonization.

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific

PubMed Central

Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Tessier, Natacha; Karl, Stephan; Fola, Abebe; Darcy, Andrew W.; Wini, Lyndes; Harrison, G. L. Abby; Barnadas, Céline; Jennison, Charlie; Karunajeewa, Harin; Boyd, Sarah; Whittaker, Maxine; Kazura, James; Bahlo, Melanie; Mueller, Ivo

2018-01-01

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination. PMID:29373596

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific.

PubMed

Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Tessier, Natacha; Karl, Stephan; Fola, Abebe; Darcy, Andrew W; Wini, Lyndes; Harrison, G L Abby; Barnadas, Céline; Jennison, Charlie; Karunajeewa, Harin; Boyd, Sarah; Whittaker, Maxine; Kazura, James; Bahlo, Melanie; Mueller, Ivo; Barry, Alyssa E

2018-01-01

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination.

A review of possible causes of nutrient enrichment and decline of endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bortleson, Gilbert C.; Fretwell, Marvin O.

1993-01-01

Ten possible causes for this excessive enrichment in nutrients are described. Three of these hypotheses are suggested for immediate testing because of large-scale changes in nutrient loading that may have occurred as a result of man’s activities. These three hypotheses relate nutrient enrichment to (1) conversion of marshland to agricultural land, (2) agricultural drainage from the basin, and (3) reservoir regulation. Eleven possible hypothetical causes for the decline in sucker populations also are described. The decline in sucker population may be related to excessive nutrient enrichment (eutrophication) of the lake.

Passive acoustic monitoring of the decline of Mexico's critically endangered vaquita.

PubMed

Jaramillo-Legorreta, Armando; Cardenas-Hinojosa, Gustavo; Nieto-Garcia, Edwyna; Rojas-Bracho, Lorenzo; Ver Hoef, Jay; Moore, Jeffrey; Tregenza, Nicholas; Barlow, Jay; Gerrodette, Tim; Thomas, Len; Taylor, Barbara

2017-02-01

The vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is the world's most endangered marine mammal with approximately 245 individuals remaining in 2008. This species of porpoise is endemic to the northern Gulf of California, Mexico, and historically the population has declined because of unsustainable bycatch in gillnets. An illegal gillnet fishery for an endangered fish, the totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi), has recently resurged throughout the vaquita's range. The secretive but lucrative wildlife trade with China for totoaba swim bladders has probably increased vaquita bycatch mortality by an unknown amount. Precise population monitoring by visual surveys is difficult because vaquitas are inherently hard to see and have now become so rare that sighting rates are very low. However, their echolocation clicks can be identified readily on specialized acoustic detectors. Acoustic detections on an array of 46 moored detectors indicated vaquita acoustic activity declined by 80% between 2011 and 2015 in the central part of the species' range. Statistical models estimated an annual rate of decline of 34% (95% Bayesian credible interval -48% to -21%). Based on results from 2011 to 2014, the government of Mexico enacted and is enforcing an emergency 2-year ban on gillnets throughout the species' range to prevent extinction, at a cost of US$74 million to compensate fishers. Developing precise acoustic monitoring methods proved critical to exposing the severity of vaquitas' decline and emphasizes the need for continual monitoring to effectively manage critically endangered species. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Population and Colony-Level Determinants of Tertiary Sex Ratio in the Declining Barn Swallow

PubMed Central

Saino, Nicola; Romano, Maria; Rubolini, Diego; Caprioli, Manuela; Ambrosini, Roberto; Boncoraglio, Giuseppe; Canova, Luca

2013-01-01

Sex ratio of adults (tertiary sex ratio, TSR) is a major feature of animal populations with consequences for their behaviour, genetic structure and viability. Spatial and temporal variation in TSR occurs within species but the mechanisms behind it are poorly understood. In this long-term study of a declining population of a socially monogamous, colonial, migratory bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), we first analyzed population-level variation in TSR ( = proportion of males) of yearlings at sexual maturation in relation to ecological conditions as gauged by annual survival rate of adults. TSR was male-biased both among yearlings and older individuals, but male bias of yearlings was more pronounced after years with larger decline in adult survival. Thus, male offspring were less susceptible to the adverse ecological conditions that cause increased mortality. Dispersal and settling site decisions can have major consequences on fitness via the effects of local TSR on mating and sperm competition. Breeding barn swallows are highly philopatric while natal dispersal is high and, together with mortality, is the main determinant of colony TSR. We thus also investigated the mechanisms of breeding colony choice by yearlings and found that TSR of new-settlers in a given colony and year was negatively predicted by TSR of returning, early arriving older individuals in that year, but not by overall TSR at the colony in the previous year. This suggests that in our male-biased population new-settler males respond to local TSR upon arrival to choose the sites with larger breeding opportunities. Hence, variation in ecological conditions as reflected by adult survival can shift the TSR of individuals recruiting into a local population, with potentially various demographic consequences. However, breeding site choice based on TSR tends to homogenize TSR at a population level likely by facilitating settling of dispersing males in colonies with less male-biased TSR. PMID

Declines revisited: Long-term recovery and spatial population dynamics oftailed frog larvae after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Honeycutt, Richard

2017-01-01

Drought has fueled an increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in many ecosystems. Despite an increase in research on wildfire effects on vertebrates, the vast majority of it has focused on short-term (< 5 years) effects and there is still little information on the time scale of population recovery for species that decline in abundance after fire. In 2003, a large wildfire in Montana (USA) burned the watersheds of four of eight streams that we sampled for larval Rocky Mountain tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) in 2001. Surveys during 2004–2005 revealed reduced abundance of larvae in burned streams relative to unburned streams, with greater declines associated with increased fire extent. Rocky Mountain tailed frogs have low vagility and have several unusual life-history traits that could slow population recovery, including an extended larval period (4 years), delayed sexual maturity (6–8 years), and low fecundity (< 50 eggs/year). To determine if abundance remained depressed since the 2003 wildfire, we repeated surveys during 2014–2015 and found relative abundance of larvae in burned and unburned streams had nearly converged to pre-fire conditions within two generations. The negative effects of burn extent on larval abundance weakened> 58% within 12 years after the fire. We also found moderate synchrony among populations in unburned streams and negative spatial autocorrelation among populations in burned streams. We suspect negative spatial autocorrelation among spatially-clustered burned streams reflected increased post-fire patchiness in resources and different rates of local recovery. Our results add to a growing body of work that suggests populations in intact ecosystems tend to be resilient to habitat changes caused by wildfire. Our results also provide important insights into recovery times of populations that have been negatively affected by severe wildfire.

Declining Fertility and the Use of Cesarean Delivery: Evidence from a Population-Based Study in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Ma, Ke-Zong M; Norton, Edward C; Lee, Shoou-Yih D

2010-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that declining fertility would affect the number of cesarean sections (c-sections) on maternal demand, but not medically indicated c-sections. Data Sources The 1996–2004 National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan for all singleton deliveries. Study Design Retrospective population-based, longitudinal study. Estimation was performed using multinomial probit models. Principal Findings Results revealed that declining fertility had a significant positive effect on the probability of having a c-section on maternal request but not medically indicated c-section. Conclusions Our findings offer a precautionary note to countries experiencing a fertility decline. Policies to contain the rise of c-sections should understand the role of women's preferences, especially regarding cesarean deliveries on maternal request. PMID:20545781

Socioeconomic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America

PubMed Central

Dribe, Martin; Breschi, Marco; Gagnon, Alain; Gauvreau, Danielle; Hanson, Heidi A.; Maloney, Thomas N.; Mazzoni, Stanislao; Molitoris, Joseph; Pozzi, Lucia; Smith, Ken R.; Vézina, Hélène

2016-01-01

We have good knowledge of the timing of the historical fertility transitions in different regions, but we know much less regarding specific features and causes. In this study, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to study the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility during the transition. Using the same analytical model and identical class scheme, we examined the development of socioeconomic differences in marital fertility and related it to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society but support the idea that they acted as forerunners in the transition by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were latest to start to limit their fertility. Apart from this regularity, the patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly among populations. PMID:27884093

Advances in development reverse fertility declines.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C

2009-08-06

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

Mitochondrial DNA regionalism and historical demography in the extant populations of Chirocephalus kerkyrensis (Branchiopoda: Anostraca).

PubMed

Ketmaier, Valerio; Marrone, Federico; Alfonso, Giuseppe; Paulus, Kirsten; Wiemann, Annika; Tiedemann, Ralph; Mura, Graziella

2012-01-01

Mediterranean temporary water bodies are important reservoirs of biodiversity and host a unique assemblage of diapausing aquatic invertebrates. These environments are currently vanishing because of increasing human pressure. Chirocephalus kerkyrensis is a fairy shrimp typical of temporary water bodies in Mediterranean plain forests and has undergone a substantial decline in number of populations in recent years due to habitat loss. We assessed patterns of genetic connectivity and phylogeographic history in the seven extant populations of the species from Albania, Corfu Is. (Greece), Southern and Central Italy. We analyzed sequence variation at two mitochondrial DNA genes (Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16s rRNA) in all the known populations of C. kerkyrensis. We used multiple phylogenetic, phylogeographic and coalescence-based approaches to assess connectivity and historical demography across the whole distribution range of the species. C. kerkyrensis is genetically subdivided into three main mitochondrial lineages; two of them are geographically localized (Corfu Is. and Central Italy) and one encompasses a wide geographic area (Albania and Southern Italy). Most of the detected genetic variation (≈81%) is apportioned among the aforementioned lineages. Multiple analyses of mismatch distributions consistently supported both past demographic and spatial expansions with the former predating the latter; demographic expansions were consistently placed during interglacial warm phases of the Pleistocene while spatial expansions were restricted to cold periods. Coalescence methods revealed a scenario of past isolation with low levels of gene flow in line with what is already known for other co-distributed fairy shrimps and suggest drift as the prevailing force in promoting local divergence. We recommend that these evolutionary trajectories should be taken in proper consideration in any effort aimed at protecting Mediterranean temporary water bodies.

The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation.

PubMed

Durant, Sarah M; Mitchell, Nicholas; Groom, Rosemary; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Ipavec, Audrey; Jacobson, Andrew P; Woodroffe, Rosie; Böhm, Monika; Hunter, Luke T B; Becker, Matthew S; Broekhuis, Femke; Bashir, Sultana; Andresen, Leah; Aschenborn, Ortwin; Beddiaf, Mohammed; Belbachir, Farid; Belbachir-Bazi, Amel; Berbash, Ali; Brandao de Matos Machado, Iracelma; Breitenmoser, Christine; Chege, Monica; Cilliers, Deon; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Dickman, Amy J; Ezekiel, Fabiano; Farhadinia, Mohammad S; Funston, Paul; Henschel, Philipp; Horgan, Jane; de Iongh, Hans H; Jowkar, Houman; Klein, Rebecca; Lindsey, Peter Andrew; Marker, Laurie; Marnewick, Kelly; Melzheimer, Joerg; Merkle, Johnathan; M'soka, Jassiel; Msuha, Maurus; O'Neill, Helen; Parker, Megan; Purchase, Gianetta; Sahailou, Samaila; Saidu, Yohanna; Samna, Abdoulkarim; Schmidt-Küntzel, Anne; Selebatso, Eda; Sogbohossou, Etotépé A; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Stone, Emma; van der Meer, Esther; van Vuuren, Rudie; Wykstra, Mary; Young-Overton, Kim

2017-01-17

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Nicholas; Groom, Rosemary; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Ipavec, Audrey; Jacobson, Andrew P.; Woodroffe, Rosie; Böhm, Monika; Becker, Matthew S.; Broekhuis, Femke; Bashir, Sultana; Andresen, Leah; Aschenborn, Ortwin; Beddiaf, Mohammed; Berbash, Ali; Brandao de Matos Machado, Iracelma; Breitenmoser, Christine; Chege, Monica; Cilliers, Deon; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Dickman, Amy J.; Ezekiel, Fabiano; Farhadinia, Mohammad S.; Funston, Paul; Henschel, Philipp; Horgan, Jane; de Iongh, Hans H.; Jowkar, Houman; Klein, Rebecca; Lindsey, Peter Andrew; Marker, Laurie; Marnewick, Kelly; Melzheimer, Joerg; Merkle, Johnathan; M'soka, Jassiel; Msuha, Maurus; O'Neill, Helen; Parker, Megan; Purchase, Gianetta; Sahailou, Samaila; Saidu, Yohanna; Samna, Abdoulkarim; Schmidt-Küntzel, Anne; Selebatso, Eda; Sogbohossou, Etotépé A.; Stone, Emma; van der Meer, Esther; van Vuuren, Rudie; Wykstra, Mary; Young-Overton, Kim

2017-01-01

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human–wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes. PMID:28028225

De novo lipogenesis is suppressed during fasting but upregulated at population decline in cyclic voles.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Rouvinen-Watt, Kirsti; Harris, Lora; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2016-04-01

Arvicolines are susceptible to the development of fatty liver during short-term fasting. We examined the potential role of de novo lipogenesis (DNL) (i) in the development of fasting-induced fatty liver and (ii) during a population cycle by measuring the mRNA expression of acetyl-CoA carboxylase-1 (ACC1) and fatty acid synthase (FAS). Laboratory voles (Microtus oeconomus and Microtus arvalis) were fed or fasted for 12 or 18 h and their liver mRNA levels were determined. Both species showed decreased mRNA expression of ACC1 and FAS during fasting. This suggests that DNL does not participate in the development of fatty liver in voles, different from human non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. In wild bank voles (Myodes glareolus), the mRNA levels of the genes of interest were higher during the population decline compared to the increase phase. In conclusion, DNL was suppressed during acute fasting but upregulated during a long-term population decline-a period of purported scarcity of high-quality food. © 2016 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.

A retrospective perspective: evaluating population changes by repeating historic bird surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Igl, Lawrence D.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2005-01-01

Acquiring an accurate picture of the changes in bird populations often involves a tradeoff between the time and effort required to complete the surveys and the number of years spent surveying the bird populations. An alternative approach to long-term monitoring efforts is to collect current data and contrast those with data collected earlier in a similar fashion on the same study site(s). To evaluate changes in bird populations, we repeated two extensive surveys, one in North Dakota (1967 vs. 1992-1993) and the other in the Platte River Valley of Nebraska (1979-1980 vs. 2001), where large areas of native vegetation had been converted to agriculture. We use these examples and others from the literature to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of using historical data as a frame of reference for population changes.

On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

1999-01-01

Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

Who and what is a "population"? Historical debates, current controversies, and implications for understanding "population health" and rectifying health inequities.

PubMed

Krieger, Nancy

2012-12-01

The idea of "population" is core to the population sciences but is rarely defined except in statistical terms. Yet who and what defines and makes a population has everything to do with whether population means are meaningful or meaningless, with profound implications for work on population health and health inequities. In this article, I review the current conventional definitions of, and historical debates over, the meaning(s) of "population," trace back the contemporary emphasis on populations as statistical rather than substantive entities to Adolphe Quetelet's powerful astronomical metaphor, conceived in the 1830s, of l'homme moyen (the average man), and argue for an alternative definition of populations as relational beings. As informed by the ecosocial theory of disease distribution, I then analyze several case examples to explore the utility of critical population-informed thinking for research, knowledge, and policy involving population health and health inequities. Four propositions emerge: (1) the meaningfulness of means depends on how meaningfully the populations are defined in relation to the inherent intrinsic and extrinsic dynamic generative relationships by which they are constituted; (2) structured chance drives population distributions of health and entails conceptualizing health and disease, including biomarkers, as embodied phenotype and health inequities as historically contingent; (3) persons included in population health research are study participants, and the casual equation of this term with "study population" should be avoided; and (4) the conventional cleavage of "internal validity" and "generalizability" is misleading, since a meaningful choice of study participants must be in relation to the range of exposures experienced (or not) in the real-world societies, that is, meaningful populations, of which they are a part. To improve conceptual clarity, causal inference, and action to promote health equity, population sciences need to expand

Can selective migration explain why health is worse in regions with population decline?: A study on migration and self-rated health in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Aletta; Kibele, Eva U B; Verweij, Antonia; van der Lucht, Fons; Janssen, Fanny

2015-12-01

Health disparities between population declining and non-declining areas have received little attention, even though population decline is an established phenomenon in Europe. Selective migration, in which healthier people move out of deprived areas, can possibly explain worse health in declining regions. We assessed whether selective migration can explain the observed worse average health in declining regions as compared with non-declining regions in the Netherlands. Combining data from the Dutch Housing and Living Survey held in 2002 and 2006 with Dutch registry data, we studied the relation between health status and migration in a 5-year period at the individual level by applying logistic regression. In our sample of 130,600 participants, we compared health status, demographic and socioeconomic factors of movers and stayers from declining and non-declining regions. People in the Netherlands who migrated are healthier than those staying behind [odds ratio (OR): 1.80]. This effect is larger for persons moving out of declining regions (OR: 1.76) than those moving into declining regions (OR: 1.47). When controlled for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, these effects are not significant. Moreover, only a small part of the population migrates out of (0.29%) or into (0.25%) declining regions in the course of 5 years. Despite the relation between health and migration, the effect of selective migration on health differences between declining and non-declining regions in the Netherlands is small. Both health and migration are complexly linked with socioeconomic and demographic factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Pathogens, nutritional deficiency, and climate influences on a declining moose population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray, D.L.; Cox, E.W.; Ballard, W.B.; Whitlaw, Heather A.; Lenarz, M.S.; Custer, T.W.; Barnett, T.; Fuller, T.K.

2006-01-01

Several potential proximate causes may be implicated in a recent (post-1984) decline in moose (Alces alces andersoni) numbers at their southern range periphery in northwest Minnesota, USA. These causes include deleterious effects of infectious pathogens, some of which are associated with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), negative effects of climate change, increased food competition with deer or moose, legal or illegal hunting, and increased predation by gray wolves (Canis lupus) and black bears (Ursus americanus). Long-standing factors that may have contributed to the moose decline include those typically associated with marginal habitat such as nutritional deficiencies. We examined survival and productivity among radiocollared (n = 152) adult female and juvenile moose in northwest Minnesota during 1995–2000, and assessed cause of death and pathology through carcass necropsy of radiocollared and non-radiocollared animals.Aerial moose surveys suggested that hunting was an unlikely source of the numerical decline because the level of harvest was relatively low (i.e., approx. 15% / 2 yr) and the population usually grew in years following a hunt. The majority of moose mortalities (up to 87% of radiocollared moose [n = 76] and up to 65% of non-radiocollared moose [n = 84]) were proximally related to pathology associated with parasites and infectious disease. Liver fluke (Fascioloides magna) infections apparently constituted the greatest single source of mortality and caused significant pathology in the liver, thoracic and peritoneal cavities, pericardial sac, and lungs. Mortality due to meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) was less prevalent and was manifested through characteristic neurological disease. Several mortalities apparently were associated with unidentified infectious disease, probably acting in close association with malnutrition. Bone-marrow fat was lower for moose dying of natural causes than those dying of anthropogenic factors or

The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact...

Nesting ecology of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus at the eastern edge of their historic distribution

Treesearch

Katie M. Herman-Brunson; Kent C. Jensen; Nicholas W. Kaczor; Christopher C. Swanson; Mark A. Rumble; Robert W. Klaver

2009-01-01

Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus populations in North Dakota declined approximately 67% between 1965 and 2003, and the species is listed as a Priority Level 1 Species of Special Concern by the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. The habitat and ecology of the species at the eastern edge of its historical range is largely unknown. We...

Addressing wild turkey population declines using structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Schiavone, Michael V.; Swift, Bryan L.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Siemer, William F.; Decker, Daniel J.

2017-01-01

We present a case study from New York, USA, of the use of structured decision making (SDM) to identify fall turkey harvest regulations that best meet stakeholder objectives, in light of recent apparent declines in abundance of wild turkeys in the northeastern United States. We used the SDM framework to incorporate the multiple objectives associated with turkey hunting, stakeholder desires, and region-specific ecological and environmental factors that could influence fall harvest. We identified a set of 4 fall harvest regulations, composed of different season lengths and bag limits, and evaluated their relative achievement of the objectives. We used a stochastic turkey population model, statistical modeling, and expert elicitation to evaluate the consequences of each harvest regulation on each of the objectives. We conducted a statewide mail survey of fall turkey hunters in New York to gather the necessary information to evaluate tradeoffs among multiple objectives associated with hunter satisfaction. The optimal fall harvest regulation was a 2-week season and allowed for the harvest of 1 bird/hunter. This regulation was the most conservative of those evaluated, reflecting the concerns about recent declines in turkey abundance among agency wildlife biologists and the hunting public. Depending on the region of the state, the 2-week, 1-bird regulation was predicted to result in 7–32% more turkeys on the landscape after 5 years. The SDM process provided a transparent framework for setting fall turkey harvest regulations and reduced potential stakeholder conflict by explicitly taking the multiple objectives of different stakeholder groups into account.

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reichert, Brian E.; Kendall, William L.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2016-01-01

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Detection and effects of harmful algal toxins in Scottish harbour seals and potential links to population decline.

PubMed

Jensen, Silje-Kristin; Lacaze, Jean-Pierre; Hermann, Guillaume; Kershaw, Joanna; Brownlow, Andrew; Turner, Andrew; Hall, Ailsa

2015-04-01

Over the past 15 years or so, several Scottish harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) populations have declined in abundance and several factors have been considered as possible causes, including toxins from harmful algae. Here we explore whether a link could be established between two groups of toxins, domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (STXs), and the decline in the harbour seal populations in Scotland. We document the first evidence that harbour seals are exposed to both DA and STXs from consuming contaminated fish. Both groups of toxins were found in urine and faeces sampled from live captured (n = 162) and stranded animals (n = 23) and in faecal samples collected from seal haul-out sites (n = 214) between 2008 and 2013. The proportion of positive samples and the toxins levels measured in the excreta were significantly higher in areas where harbour seal abundance is in decline. There is also evidence that DA has immunomodulatory effects in harbour seals, including lymphocytopenia and monocytosis. Scottish harbour seals are exposed to DA and STXs through contaminated prey at potentially lethal levels and with this evidence we suggest that exposure to these toxins are likely to be important factors driving the harbour seal decline in some regions of Scotland. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Decline of Gammarus lacustris Sars (Crustacea: Amphipoda) population in the delta of the Selenga River].

PubMed

Matafonov, D V; Bazova, N V

2014-01-01

We determined the amphipod population characteristics from the water bodies of the delta of the Selenga River, where Gammarus lacustris Sars, 1863 was industrially harvested until the 1990s. In 2011, the population density of G. lacustris varied from 80 to 10 200 in Lapkhai Lake and from 80 to 2320 ind./m2 in Krivaya Channel. The low population density (< 40 ind./m2) in Gryaznoe Lake, together with the absence of the species in the waters of the former Zhilishchenskoe Lake, confirms the indications of population density decline in the associated waters of the delta. Population growth of G. lacustris was limited primarily by changes in the hydromorphology of the lakes and waterways due to floods of the early 1990s and the subsequent period of extremely low flow of the Selenga River.

Declines of the California red-legged frog: Climate, UV-B, habitat, and pesticides hypotheses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davidson, C.; Shaffer, H.B.; Jennings, M.R.

2001-01-01

The federally threatened California red-legged frog (Rana aurora draytonii) has disappeared from much of its range for unknown reasons. We mapped 237 historic locations for the species and determined their current population status. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we determined latitude, elevation, and land use attributes for all sites and analyzed the spatial pattern of declines. We then compared the observed patterns of decline to those predicted by the climate change, UV-B radiation, pesticides, and habitat alteration hypotheses for amphibian decline. Declines were not consistent with the climate change hypothesis but showed a strong positive association with elevation, percentage upwind agricultural land use, and local urbanization. These results apply to patterns of decline across the entire range of R. a. draytonii in California, as well as within geographic subregions. The elevational gradient in declines is consistent with the UV-B hypothesis, although the UV-B hypothesis also predicts a north-to-south gradient in declines, which we did not observe. The association of declines with the amount of upwind agricultural land use strongly suggests that wind-borne agrochemicals may be an important factor in declines. This association was most pronounced within the Central Valley-Sierra region, where other studies have documented both transport and deposition of pesticides to the Sierra Nevada and the presence of pesticide residues in the bodies of congeneric (Rana muscosa) and more distantly related (Hyla regilla) frog species.

Analysis of genetic data on Jewish populations. I. Historical background, demographic features, and genetic markers.

PubMed Central

Bonné-Tamir, B; Karlin, S; Kenett, R

1979-01-01

Part I describes the data sets on which the analysis of Part II is based. This covers the nature of the populations sampled, the extent to which the samples are representative, and a brief review of historical and demographic facts on the populations involved. PMID:380329

Taiwan's population and family planning efforts: an historical perspective.

PubMed

Cernada, G; Sun, T H; Chang, M C; Tsai, J F

The unprecedented decline of Taiwan's natural population increase rate from 3% in 1963 to 1.9% in 1973, attributed primarily to an increasing use of contraception, brought universal attention to one of the first and most successful national family planning programs, at a time when successes were few. Taiwan met its goal of decreasing its natural increase rate despite its young population, increasing numbers of women of childbearing ages, a strong preference for sons and a per capita income at the outset in 1963 of less than U.S.$200. Recognition of this achievement brought thousands of professionals, particularly from developing countries, to study the program firsthand: more than 3,000 during 1970--73 alone. This was matched by an avalanche of publications about the program that appeared around the world, written by practitioners, academics and others. This article tells the story of this success.

Gaining perspective on what we've lost: the reliability of encoded anecdotes in historical ecology.

PubMed

Al-Abdulrazzak, Dalal; Naidoo, Robin; Palomares, Maria Lourdes D; Pauly, Daniel

2012-01-01

Historical data are essential in fisheries management and conservation, especially for species that suffered significant population declines prior to ecological data collection. Within the field of historical marine ecology, studies have relied on anecdotal evidence, such as written accounts by explorers and interviews of different generations of resource users, to demonstrate the former abundance of certain species and the extent of their ranges. Yet, do we all agree on how these anecdotes are interpreted? This study examines the way that different people interpret anecdotes extracted from historical narratives. We outsource a survey to 50 randomly selected people using Amazon Mechanical Turk (www.mturk.com) and ask them to 'code' historical anecdotes based on their perceived abundance of species. We perform intercoder reliability tests to show that people's perceptions of historical anecdotes are generally consistent. The results speak to the reliability of using people's perceptions to acquire quantitative data, and provide novel insights into the use of anecdotal evidence to inform historical ecology.

Physical Function Decline and the Risk of Elder Self-Neglect in a Community-Dwelling Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Fulmer, Terry; de Leon, Carlos F. Mendes; Rajan, Bharat; Evans, Denis A.

2010-01-01

Purpose: This longitudinal study examines the association between physical function decline and the risk of elder self-neglect in a community-dwelling population. Design and Methods: Of the 5,570 participants in the Chicago Health Aging Project, 1,068 were reported to social services agency for suspected elder self-neglect from 1993 to 2005. The…

Historical changes in population structure during rice breeding programs in the northern limits of rice cultivation.

PubMed

Shinada, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Toshio; Yamamoto, Eiji; Hori, Kiyosumi; Yonemaru, Junichi; Matsuba, Shuichi; Fujino, Kenji

2014-04-01

The rice local population was clearly differentiated into six groups over the 100-year history of rice breeding programs in the northern limit of rice cultivation over the world. Genetic improvements in plant breeding programs in local regions have led to the development of new cultivars with specific agronomic traits under environmental conditions and generated the unique genetic structures of local populations. Understanding historical changes in genome structures and phenotypic characteristics within local populations may be useful for identifying profitable genes and/or genetic resources and the creation of new gene combinations in plant breeding programs. In the present study, historical changes were elucidated in genome structures and phenotypic characteristics during 100-year rice breeding programs in Hokkaido, the northern limit of rice cultivation in the world. We selected 63 rice cultivars to represent the historical diversity of this local population from landraces to the current breeding lines. The results of the phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that these cultivars clearly differentiated into six groups over the history of rice breeding programs. Significant differences among these groups were detected in five of the seven traits, indicating that the differentiation of the Hokkaido rice population into these groups was correlated with these phenotypic changes. These results demonstrated that breeding practices in Hokkaido have created new genetic structures for adaptability to specific environmental conditions and breeding objectives. They also provide a new strategy for rice breeding programs in which such unique genes in local populations in the world can explore the genetic potentials of the local populations.

Mitochondrial DNA Regionalism and Historical Demography in the Extant Populations of Chirocephalus kerkyrensis (Branchiopoda: Anostraca)

PubMed Central

Ketmaier, Valerio; Marrone, Federico; Alfonso, Giuseppe; Paulus, Kirsten; Wiemann, Annika; Tiedemann, Ralph; Mura, Graziella

2012-01-01

Background Mediterranean temporary water bodies are important reservoirs of biodiversity and host a unique assemblage of diapausing aquatic invertebrates. These environments are currently vanishing because of increasing human pressure. Chirocephalus kerkyrensis is a fairy shrimp typical of temporary water bodies in Mediterranean plain forests and has undergone a substantial decline in number of populations in recent years due to habitat loss. We assessed patterns of genetic connectivity and phylogeographic history in the seven extant populations of the species from Albania, Corfu Is. (Greece), Southern and Central Italy. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed sequence variation at two mitochondrial DNA genes (Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16s rRNA) in all the known populations of C. kerkyrensis. We used multiple phylogenetic, phylogeographic and coalescence-based approaches to assess connectivity and historical demography across the whole distribution range of the species. C. kerkyrensis is genetically subdivided into three main mitochondrial lineages; two of them are geographically localized (Corfu Is. and Central Italy) and one encompasses a wide geographic area (Albania and Southern Italy). Most of the detected genetic variation (≈81%) is apportioned among the aforementioned lineages. Conclusions/Significance Multiple analyses of mismatch distributions consistently supported both past demographic and spatial expansions with the former predating the latter; demographic expansions were consistently placed during interglacial warm phases of the Pleistocene while spatial expansions were restricted to cold periods. Coalescence methods revealed a scenario of past isolation with low levels of gene flow in line with what is already known for other co-distributed fairy shrimps and suggest drift as the prevailing force in promoting local divergence. We recommend that these evolutionary trajectories should be taken in proper consideration in any effort aimed at protecting

Establishing causality in the decline and deformity of amphibians: The amphibian research and monitoring initiative model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Little, E.E.; Bridges, C.M.; Linder, G.; Boone, M.; ,

2003-01-01

Research to date has indicated that a range of environmental variables such as disease, parasitism, predation, competition, environmental contamination, solar ultraviolet radiation, climate change, or habitat alteration may be responsible for declining amphibian populations and the appearance of deformed organisms, yet in many cases no definitive environmental variable stands out as a causal factor. Multiple Stressors are often present in the habitat, and interactions among these can magnify injury to biota. This raises the possibility that the additive or synergistic impact of these Stressors may be the underlying cause of amphibian declines. Effective management for the restoration of amphibian populations requires the identification of causal factors contributing to their declines. A systematic approach to determine causality is especially important because initial impressions may be misleading or ambiguous. In addition, the evaluation of amphibian populations requires consideration of a broader spatial scale than commonly used in regulatory monitoring. We describe a systematic three-tiered approach to determine causality in amphibian declines and deformities. Tier 1 includes an evaluation of historic databases and extant data and would involve a desktop synopsis of the status of various stressors as well as site visits. Tier 2 studies are iterative, hypothesis driven studies beginning with general tests and continuing with analyses of increasing complexity as certain stressors are identified for further investigation. Tier 3 applies information developed in Tier 2 as predictive indicators of habitats and species at risk over broad landscape scales and provides decision support for the adaptive management of amphibian recovery. This comprehensive, tiered program could provide a mechanistic approach to identifying and addressing specific stressors responsible for amphibian declines across various landscapes.

Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

Treesearch

K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

2002-01-01

ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Dietary traces of neonicotinoid pesticides as a cause of population declines in honey bees: an evaluation by Hill's epidemiological criteria.

PubMed

Cresswell, James E; Desneux, Nicolas; vanEngelsdorp, Dennis

2012-06-01

Honey bees are important pollinators of both crops and wild plants. Pesticide regimes that threaten their sustainability should therefore be assessed. As an example, evidence that the agricultural use of neonicotinoid pesticides is a cause of the recently observed declines in honey bees is examined. The aim is to define exacting demographic conditions for a detrimental factor to precipitate a population decline, and Hill's epidemiological 'causality criteria' are employed as a structured process for making an expert judgement about the proposition that trace dietary neonicotinoids in nectar and pollen cause population declines in honey bees. In spite of the absence of decisive experimental results, the analysis shows that, while the proposition is a substantially justified conjecture in the context of current knowledge, it is also substantially contraindicated by a wide variety of circumstantial epidemiological evidence. It is concluded that dietary neonicotinoids cannot be implicated in honey bee declines, but this position is provisional because important gaps remain in current knowledge. Avenues for further investigations to resolve this longstanding uncertainty are therefore identified. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

Ancient DNA reveals substantial genetic diversity in the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) prior to a population bottleneck

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Elia, Jesse; Haig, Susan M.; Mullins, Thomas D.; Miller, Mark P.

2016-01-01

Critically endangered species that have undergone severe population bottlenecks often have little remaining genetic variation, making it difficult to reconstruct population histories to apply in reintroduction and recovery strategies. By using ancient DNA techniques, it is possible to combine genetic evidence from the historical population with contemporary samples to provide a more complete picture of a species' genetic variation across its historical range and through time. Applying this approach, we examined changes in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (526 base pairs) of the endangered California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus). Results showed a >80% reduction in unique haplotypes over the past 2 centuries. We found no spatial sorting of haplotypes in the historical population; the periphery of the range contained haplotypes that were common throughout the historical range. Direct examination of mtDNA from California Condor museum specimens provided a new window into historical population connectivity and genetic diversity showing: (1) a substantial loss of haplotypes, which is consistent with the hypothesis that condors were relatively abundant in the nineteenth century, but declined rapidly as a result of human-caused mortality; and (2) no evidence of historical population segregation, meaning that the available genetic data offer no cause to avoid releasing condors in unoccupied portions of their historical range.

UV-B Radiation Contributes to Amphibian Population Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaustein, Andrew

2007-05-01

UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation is the most significant biologically damaging radiation at the terrestrial surface. At the organismal level, UV-B radiation can slow growth rates, cause immune dysfunction and result in sublethal damage. UV-B radiation can lead to mutations and cell death. Over evolutionary time, UV radiation has been an important stressor on living organisms. Natural events, including impacts from comets and asteroids, volcanic activity, supernova explosions and solar flares, can cause large-scale ozone depletion with accompanying increases in UV radiation. However, these natural events are transient. Moreover, the amount of ozone damage due to natural events depends upon a number of variables, including the magnitude of the event. This is different from modern-day human-induced production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chemicals that deplete stratospheric ozone continuously, resulting in long-term increases in UV-B radiation at the surface of the earth. We will briefly review the effects of UV-B exposure in one group of aquatic organisms_amphibians. UV-B has been implicated as a possible factor contributing to global declines and range reductions in amphibian populations.

Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leach, Alan G.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, James S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Boyd, W. Sean; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ritchie, Robert J.

2017-01-01

Since the mid 1990s, the number of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) nests on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, the historically predominant breeding area of brant, has declined steadily. This has caused researchers and managers to question if arctic breeding populations can compensate for the reduction in brant nests on the YKD. An important component of the assessment of brant population dynamics is having current estimates of first‐year and adult survival. We banded brant at 4 locations in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, and at 1 location in the subarctic, the Tutakoke River (TR) colony on the YKD, 1990–2015. We used joint live and dead mark‐recapture models to estimate first‐year and adult (≥1 yr old) survival of brant. We also used band recovery rates from a Brownie model to assess temporal trends in band recovery rates of adult brant. First‐year survival of brant hatched at TR declined from approximately 0.60 to <0.20 and, although first‐year survival generally was higher for goslings marked in the Arctic, their survival declined from approximately 0.70 in the early 1990s to ≤0.45 in the 2010s. Annual survival of adult females decreased from an average of 0.881 (95% CI = 0.877–0.885) to 0.822 (95% CI = 0.815–0.829) at TR and from 0.851 (95% CI = 0.843–0.860) to 0.821 (95% CI = 0.805–0.836) in the Arctic, from 1990 to 2014. Band recovery rates of adults generally were <1.25% until the last several years of study, when they reached ≤3.5%. Although the current harvest rates may be partially additive to natural mortality, we do not believe that harvest is the main influence on the declines in survival. The general decline in survival rates of brant breeding across a large geographic area may be influenced by a reduction in the quality of migration and wintering ground habitats. We suggest an analysis of seasonal survival of brant to test the hypothesis that declining habitat quality on

Chinese culture and fertility decline.

PubMed

Wu, C; Jia, S

1992-01-01

Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

PubMed

Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

2016-10-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

A population-based study of the association between coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and cognitive decline: the Cache County study.

PubMed

Lyketsos, Constantine G; Toone, Leslie; Tschanz, Joann; Corcoran, Christopher; Norton, Maria; Zandi, Peter; Munger, Ron; Breitner, John C S; Welsh-Bohmer, Kathleen

2006-06-01

The relationship between coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and cognitive decline remains uncertain, in particular with regard to whether there is delayed cognitive decline associated with this procedure. This was a population-based cohort study involving participants in the Cache County Study of Memory Health and Aging. At baseline the study enrolled 5,092 persons age 65 and older and followed them up three years later and again four years after that. Individuals who reported having undergone CABG surgery at study baseline or had this surgery in between follow-up waves were compared to individuals who never reported having the surgery. The main outcome measure was the Modified Mini Mental State (3MS). Multilevel models were used to examine the relationship between CABG surgery and cognitive decline over time. Study participants who had CABG surgery evidenced 0.95 points of greater decline relative to baseline on the 3MS at the first follow-up interview after CABG, and an average of 1.9 points of greater decline at the second follow-up interview, than those without CABG (t = -2.51, df = 2,316, p = 0.0121), after adjusting for several covariates, including number of vascular conditions. This decline was restricted to individuals who were more than five years past the procedure and was not evident in the early years after the surgery. CABG surgery is associated with accelerated cognitive decline more than five years after the procedure in a long-lived population. This decline is small and its clinical significance is uncertain. We could not find an association between CABG and decline in the first five post-operative years.

Decline of shortjaw cisco in Lake Superior: the role of overfishing and risk of extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Gorman, Owen T.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; Todd, Thomas N.

2010-01-01

Recent reviews have further documented the decline of the shortjaw cisco Coregonus zenithicus in Lake Superior. This fish was the most abundant deepwater cisco species in Lake Superior in the early 1920s but presently makes up less than 1% of all deepwater ciscoes (i.e., including shortjaw cisco, bloater C. hoyi, and kiyi C. kiyi) captured in biological surveys. Directed overfishing of deepwater cisco species during the 1930s and again during the mid-1960s and 1970s has been suggested as the cause of the shortjaw cisco's demise. In this paper, we re-examined the overfishing hypothesis by using historical and recent survey data to estimate the proportion of the historical commercial fishery landings that comprised shortjaw ciscoes. We developed time series of estimated harvest and relative abundance for all statistical districts in Michigan waters of Lake Superior during 1929–1996, for which aggregate catch and effort data were available but not previously examined. The spatial distribution of the fishery and the relationships of catch to fishing effort were examined for evidence of overfishing. Our analysis suggested that directed overfishing was probably not the cause of shortjaw cisco demise, as this species appeared to be declining in all statistical districts regardless of the intensity of the fishery. A count-based population viability analysis indicated that quasi-extinction of the shortjaw cisco is highly probable in the near future. We propose an alternative hypothesis based on the decline of Lake Superior's keystone predator, the lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, which resulted in an expansion of the population of its principal prey, the cisco C. artedi, due to release from predation pressure. Competitive or predation interactions between the cisco and shortjaw cisco may be more likely explanations for the demise of the latter species.

Diabetes, impaired fasting glucose, and cognitive decline in a population of elderly community residents.

PubMed

Rouch, Isabelle; Roche, Frédéric; Dauphinot, Virginie; Laurent, Bernard; Antérion, Catherine Thomas; Celle, Sébastien; Krolak-Salmon, Pierre; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude

2012-08-01

Diabetes and impaired fasting glucose, as well as cognitive impairment, are common in the elderly. Although several cross-sectional studies have demonstrated the influence of diabetes on cognitive impairment, only a few longitudinal studies have assessed the relationship between diabetes, impaired fasting glucose and cognitive decline in non-demented elderly community dwellers, by means of extensive neuropsychological batteries. The present study assesses the relationship between baseline diabetes, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and 2- year evolution of memory, attention and executive performance in a sample of non-demented elderly subjects. Population-based cohort study [(PROgnostic indicator OF cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (PROOF)]. One hundred and sixty-three community dwellers aged 65 years without dementia at recruitment. Memory, attention and executive performance. A significant association was observed between baseline diabetes mellitus and a higher 2-year decline in the Trial Making Test B and Stroop test exploring attention and executive function. This effect remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, education, anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as other cardiovascular risk factors (F=2.41; p=0.007). Instead, no relationship was observed between IFG and cognitive decline. Our study showed that, in a sample of elderly non-demented community dwellers, diabetes mellitus (but not IFG) is associated with a higher decline in selective attention and executive functioning. These results emphasize the importance of detecting and man- aging diabetes and impaired fasting glucose, in order to prevent cognitive impairment and dementia.

Airborne Pesticides as an Unlikely Cause for Population Declines of Alpine Frogs in the Sierra Nevada, California

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured...

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Paperbark and pinard: A historical account of maternity care in one remote Australian Aboriginal town.

PubMed

Ireland, Sarah; Belton, Suzanne; McGrath, Ann; Saggers, Sherry; Narjic, Concepta Wulili

2015-12-01

Maternity care in remote areas of the Australian Northern Territory is restricted to antenatal and postnatal care only, with women routinely evacuated to give birth in hospital. Using one remote Aboriginal community as a case study, our aim with this research was to document and explore the major changes to the provision of remote maternity care over the period spanning pre-European colonisation to 1996. Our research methods included historical ethnographic fieldwork (2007-2013); interviews with Aboriginal women, Aboriginal health workers, religious and non-religious non-Aboriginal health workers and past residents; and archival review of historical documents. We identified four distinct eras of maternity care. Maternity care staffed by nuns who were trained in nursing and midwifery serviced childbirth in the local community. Support for community childbirth was incrementally withdrawn over a period, until the government eventually assumed responsibility for all health care. The introduction of Western maternity care colonised Aboriginal birth practices and midwifery practice. Historical population statistics suggest that access to local Western maternity care may have contributed to a significant population increase. Despite population growth and higher demand for maternity services, local maternity services declined significantly. The rationale for removing childbirth services from the community was never explicitly addressed in any known written policy directive. Declining maternity services led to the de-skilling of many Aboriginal health workers and the significant community loss of future career pathways for Aboriginal midwives. This has contributed to the current status quo, with very few female Aboriginal health workers actively providing remote maternity care. Copyright © 2015 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nest-site competition and killing by invasive parakeets cause the decline of a threatened bat population

PubMed Central

Carrete, Martina; Ibáñez, Carlos; Juste, Javier; Tella, José L.

2018-01-01

The identification of effects of invasive species is challenging owing to their multifaceted impacts on native biota. Negative impacts are most often reflected in individual fitness rather than in population dynamics of native species and are less expected in low-biodiversity habitats, such as urban environments. We report the long-term effects of invasive rose-ringed parakeets on the largest known population of a threatened bat species, the greater noctule, located in an urban park. Both species share preferences for the same tree cavities for breeding. While the number of parakeet nests increased by a factor of 20 in 14 years, the number of trees occupied by noctules declined by 81%. Parakeets occupied most cavities previously used by noctules, and spatial analyses showed that noctules tried to avoid cavities close to parakeets. Parakeets were highly aggressive towards noctules, trying to occupy their cavities, often resulting in noctule death. This led to a dramatic population decline, but also an unusual aggregation of the occupied trees, probably disrupting the complex social behaviour of this bat species. These results indicate a strong impact through site displacement and killing of competitors, and highlight the need for long-term research to identify unexpected impacts that would otherwise be overlooked. PMID:29892437

Role of egg predation by haddock in the decline of an Atlantic herring population

PubMed Central

Richardson, David E.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Fogarty, Michael J.; Link, Jason S.

2011-01-01

Theoretical studies suggest that the abrupt and substantial changes in the productivity of some fisheries species may be explained by predation-driven alternate stable states in their population levels. With this hypothesis, an increase in fishing or a natural perturbation can drive a population from an upper to a lower stable-equilibrium population level. After fishing is reduced or the perturbation ended, this low population level can persist due to the regulatory effect of the predator. Although established in theoretical studies, there is limited empirical support for predation-driven alternate stable states in exploited marine fish populations. We present evidence that egg predation by haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) can cause alternate stable population levels in Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Egg predation by haddock explains a substantial decoupling of herring spawning stock biomass (an index of egg production) from observed larval herring abundance (an index of egg hatching). Estimated egg survival rates ranged from <2–70% from 1971 to 2005. A population model incorporating egg predation and herring fishing explains the major population trends of Georges Bank herring over four decades and predicts that, when the haddock population is high, seemingly conservative levels of fishing can still precipitate a severe decline in the herring population. These findings illustrate how efforts to rebuild fisheries can be undermined by not incorporating ecological interactions into fisheries models and management plans. PMID:21825166

USE OF WILDLIFE MORTALITY DATA TO QUALIFY RISKS TO POPULATIONS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME

EPA Science Inventory

Common loon (Gavia immer) populations have declined from historic levels in New England and despite recent range-wide increases; mortality has increased in some areas. To identify and quantify the causes of disease and death in New England loons, the Wildlife Clinic at Tufts Uni...

Conservation status of the buff-breasted sandpiper: Historic and contemporary distribution and abundance in south America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanctot, Richard B.; Blanco, D.E.; Dias, Rafael A.; Isacch, Juan P.; Gill, Verena A.; Almeida, Juliana B.; Delhey, Kaspar; Petracci, Pablo F.; Bencke, Glayson A.; Balbueno, Rodrigo A.

2002-01-01

We present historic and contemporary information on the distribution and abundance of Buff-breasted Sandpipers (Tryngites subruficollis) in South America. Historic information was collated from the literature, area ornithologists, and museums, whereas contemporary data were derived from surveys conducted throughout the main wintering range in Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil during the austral summers of 1999 and 2001. Variable circular plot sampling was used to estimate population densities. During 1999, the highest concentration of Buff-breasted Sandpipers in Argentina was in southern Bahía Samborombón (General Lavalle District) and areas north of Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon. During 2001, the highest concentrations in Brazil were at Ilha da Torotama and Lagoa do Peixe National Park. During 1999 and 2001, the highest concentrations of Buff-breasted Sandpipers in Uruguay were found along three lagoons (Laguna de Rocha, Laguna de Castillos, and Laguna Garzón) bordering the Atlantic Ocean. Population densities (birds/ha) of Buff-breasted Sandpipers were 0.11 (95% C.I. = 0.04–0.31) in Argentina, 1.62 (0.67–3.93) in Brazil, and 1.08 (0.37–3.18) in Uruguay. High turnover rates at survey sites, due to the formation of large, mobile flocks, contributed to moderately large confidence intervals around our population density estimates. Nevertheless, compared with historic accounts of Buff-breasted Sandpipers, our survey data indicate the population size of this species has declined substantially since the late 1800s and contemporary information suggests the species has continued to decline during the past three decades. Buff-breasted Sandpipers were found almost exclusively in pasturelands and appear to depend heavily upon intensive grazing by livestock, which maintain suitable short grass conditions. We discuss the need for protection of critical areas and proper range management to ensure appropriate habitat remains available for the species, and provide suggestions

A plant toxin mediated mechanism for the lag in snowshoe hare population recovery following cyclic declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Bryant, John P.; Liu, Rongsong; Gourley, Stephen A.; Krebs, Charles J; Reichardt, Paul B

2015-01-01

A necessary condition for a snowshoe hare population to cycle is reduced reproduction after the population declines. But the cause of a cyclic snowshoe hare population's reduced reproduction during the low phase of the cycle, when predator density collapses, is not completely understood. We propose that moderate-severe browsing by snowshoe hares upon preferred winter-foods could increase the toxicity of some of the hare's best winter-foods during the following hare low, with the result being a decline in hare nutrition that could reduce hare reproduction. We used a combination of modeling and experiments to explore this hypothesis. Using the shrub birch Betula glandulosa as the plant of interest, the model predicted that browsing by hares during a hare cycle peak, by increasing the toxicity B. glandulosa twigs during the following hare low, could cause a hare population to cycle. The model's assumptions were verified with assays of dammarane triterpenes in segments of B. glandulosa twigs and captive hare feeding experiments conducted in Alaska during February and March 1986. The model's predictions were tested with estimates of hare density and measurements of B. glandulosa twig growth made at Kluane, Yukon from 1988–2008. The empirical tests supported the model's predictions. Thus, we have concluded that a browsing-caused increase in twig toxicity that occurs during the hare cycle's low phase could reduce hare reproduction during the low phase of the hare cycle.

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population: a 5-year prospective analysis.

PubMed

Fu, Shihui; Liu, Chunling; Luo, Leiming; Ye, Ping

2017-11-09

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to renal function decline are more significant in Chinese community-dwelling population without glomerular filtration rate (GFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and long-term prospective study is an optimal choice to explore this problem. Aim of this analysis was to observe this problem during the follow-up of 5 years. In a large medical check-up program in Beijing, there were 948 participants with renal function evaluated at baseline and follow-up of 5 years. Physical examinations were performed by well-trained physicians. Blood samples were analyzed by qualified technicians in central laboratory. Median rate of renal function decline was 1.46 (0.42-2.91) mL/min/1.73m 2 /year. Rapid decline of renal function had a prevalence of 23.5% (223 participants). Multivariate linear and Logistic regression analyses confirmed that age, sex, baseline GFR, homocysteine and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) had independently predictive abilities to renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p < 0.05 for all). High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), carotid femoral pulse wave velocity and central augmentation index had no statistically independent association with renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p > 0.05 for all). Homocysteine and NT-proBNP rather than hs-cTnT had independently predictive abilities to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population without GFR below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . Baseline GFR was an independent factor predicting the rapid decline of renal function. Arterial stiffness and compliance had no independent effect on rapid decline of renal function. This analysis has a significant implication for public health, and changing the homocysteine and NT-proBNP levels might slow the rapid decline of renal function.

Reproduction and microhabitat selection in a sharply declining Northern Bobwhite population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.M.; Williams, C.K.; Castelli, Paul M.

2009-01-01

Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations have been declining throughout their range, but some of the sharpest declines have been documented in the Mid-Atlantic states. We conducted a 2 year (2006-2007) breeding season (1 May-30 Sep) telemetry study in southern New Jersey to collect baseline data on Northern Bobwhite reproductive rates, and nest and brood microhabitat selection. We located 23 Northern Bobwhite nests, of which 21 were usable for survival analyses. Incubation-period nest survival rate was 0.454 ?? 0.010 (95 CI =0.2800.727). Mean clutch size was 14.2 ?? 0.58 (range 10-19, n = 20) and hatching success was 96.1 ?? 2.0 (range 86-100%, n = 10). The estimated probability that an individual that entered the breeding season would initiate incubation of ???1 nest was 0.687 for females and 0.202 for males. Nest microhabitat selection was positively related to visual obstruction and percentage of litter. Brood microhabitat selection was positively related to visual obstruction, vegetation height, and percentage of forbs but negatively related to percentage of cool season grass and litter. Fecundity metrics for Northern Bobwhites in southern New Jersey appear similar to those reported elsewhere in the species' range. Conservation efforts to increase Northern Bobwhite reproductive success in southern New Jersey should focus on increasing the quantity of available breeding habitat. ?? 2009 by the Wilson Ornithological Society.

Causes and consequences of marine mammal population declines in southwest Alaska: a food-web perspective.

PubMed

Estes, J A; Doak, D F; Springer, A M; Williams, T M

2009-06-27

Populations of sea otters, seals and sea lions have collapsed across much of southwest Alaska over the past several decades. The sea otter decline set off a trophic cascade in which the coastal marine ecosystem underwent a phase shift from kelp forests to deforested sea urchin barrens. This interaction in turn affected the distribution, abundance and productivity of numerous other species. Ecological consequences of the pinniped declines are largely unknown. Increased predation by transient (marine mammal-eating) killer whales probably caused the sea otter declines and may have caused the pinniped declines as well. Springer et al. proposed that killer whales, which purportedly fed extensively on great whales, expanded their diets to include a higher percentage of sea otters and pinnipeds following a sharp reduction in great whale numbers from post World War II industrial whaling. Critics of this hypothesis claim that great whales are not now and probably never were an important nutritional resource for killer whales. We used demographic/energetic analyses to evaluate whether or not a predator-prey system involving killer whales and the smaller marine mammals would be sustainable without some nutritional contribution from the great whales. Our results indicate that while such a system is possible, it could only exist under a narrow range of extreme conditions and is therefore highly unlikely.

Presence of the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in threatened corroboree frog populations in the Australian Alps.

PubMed

Hunter, David A; Speare, Rick; Marantelli, Gerry; Mendez, Diana; Pietsch, Rod; Osborne, Will

2010-11-01

Since the early 1980s, the southern corroboree frog Pseudophryne corroboree and northern corroboree frog P. pengilleyi have been in a state of decline from their sub-alpine and high montane bog environments on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. To date, there has been no adequate explanation as to what is causing the decline of these species. We investigated the possibility that a pathogen associated with other recent frog declines in Australia, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, may have been implicated in the decline of the corroboree frogs. We used histology of toe material and real-time PCR of skin swabs to investigate the presence and infection rates with B. dendrobatidis in historic and extant populations of both corroboree frog species. Using histology, we did not detect any B. dendrobatidis infections in corroboree frog populations prior to their decline. However, using the same technique, high rates of infection were observed in populations of both species after the onset of substantial population declines. The real-time PCR screening of skin swabs identified high overall infection rates in extant populations of P. corroboree (between 44 and 59%), while significantly lower rates of infection were observed in low-altitude P. pengilleyi populations (14%). These results suggest that the initial and continued decline of the corroboree frogs may well be attributed to the emergence of B. dendrobatidis in populations of these species.

Unexpectedly Low Rangewide Population Genetic Structure of the Imperiled Eastern Box Turtle Terrapene c. carolina

PubMed Central

Kimble, Steven J. A.; Rhodes Jr., O. E.; Williams, Rod N.

2014-01-01

Rangewide studies of genetic parameters can elucidate patterns and processes that operate only over large geographic scales. Herein, we present a rangewide population genetic assessment of the eastern box turtle Terrapene c. carolina, a species that is in steep decline across its range. To inform conservation planning for this species, we address the hypothesis that disruptions to demographic and movement parameters associated with the decline of the eastern box turtle has resulted in distinctive genetic signatures in the form of low genetic diversity, high population structuring, and decreased gene flow. We used microsatellite genotype data from (n = 799) individuals from across the species range to perform two Bayesian population assignment approaches, two methods for comparing historical and contemporary migration among populations, an evaluation of isolation by distance, and a method for detecting barriers to gene flow. Both Bayesian methods of population assignment indicated that there are two populations rangewide, both of which have maintained high levels of genetic diversity (HO = 0.756). Evidence of isolation by distance was detected in this species at a spatial scale of 300 – 500 km, and the Appalachian Mountains were identified as the primary barrier to gene flow across the species range. We also found evidence for historical but not contemporary migration between populations. Our prediction of many, highly structured populations across the range was not supported. This may point to cryptic contemporary gene flow, which might in turn be explained by the presence of rare transients in populations. However these data may be influenced by historical signatures of genetic connectivity because individuals of this species can be long-lived. PMID:24647580

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

California's Youth and Young Adult Arrest Rates Continue a Historic Decline. Fact Sheet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Males, Mike

2016-01-01

This Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) fact sheet shows that, in 2015, arrests of young people under age 25 dropped below 2014 levels and continue a decades-long trend of decline. While the causes of these declines are unknown, falling youth arrests rates coupled with decreased youth incarceration suggest that high rates of…

Removal of nonnative fish results in population expansion of a declining amphibian (mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa)

PubMed Central

KNAPP, Roland A.; BOIANO, Daniel M.; VREDENBURG, Vance T.

2007-01-01

The mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) was once a common inhabitant of the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), but has declined precipitously during the past century due in part to the introduction of nonnative fish into naturally fishless habitats. The objectives of the current study were to describe (1) the effect of fish removal from three lakes (located in two watersheds) on the small, remnant R. muscosa populations inhabiting those lakes, and (2) the initial development of metapopulation structure in each watershed as R. muscosa from expanding populations in fish-removal lakes dispersed to adjacent habitats. At all three fish-removal lakes, R. muscosa population densities increased significantly following the removal of predatory fish. The magnitude of these increases was significantly greater than that observed over the same time period in R. muscosa populations inhabiting control lakes that remained in their natural fishless condition. Following these population increases, R. muscosa dispersed to adjacent suitable (but unoccupied) sites, moving between 200 and 900 m along streams or across dry land. Together, these results suggest that large-scale removal of introduced fish could result in at least partial reversal of the decline of R. muscosa. Continued monitoring of R. muscosa at the fish-removal sites will be necessary to determine whether the positive effects of fish eradication are sustained over the long-term, especially in light of the increasingly important role played by an emerging infectious disease (chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in influencing R. muscosa populations. PMID:17396156

FACTORS IMPLICATED IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES IN THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

This study identified the factors responsible for the decline of native amphibians in the U.S. The type of land use, the introduction of exotic animal species, and chemical contamination were identified as the most likely causes of decline.

Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Welsh, H.H.; Fellers, G.M.; Lind, A.J.

2007-01-01

Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984-86 and from 1993-95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines among terrestrial amphibians in northwestern California forests. The majority of amphibians, both species and relative numbers, in these forests are direct-developing salamanders of the family Plethodontidae. We examined amphibian richness and evenness, and the relative abundances of the four most common species of plethodontid salamanders. We examined evidence of differences between years in two ecological provinces (coastal and interior) and across young, mature, and late seral forests and with reference to a moisture gradient from xeric to hydric within late seral forests. We found evidence of declines in species richness across years on late seral mesic stands and in the coastal ecological province, but these differences appeared to be caused by differences in the detection of rarer species, rather than evidence of an overall pattern. We also found differences among specific years in numbers of individuals of the most abundant species, Ensatina eschscholtzii, but these differences also failed to reflect a consistent pattern of declines between the two decadal sample periods. Results showing differences in richness, evenness, and relative abundances along both the seral and moisture continua were consistent with previous research. Overall, we found no compelling evidence of a downward trend in terrestrial plethodontid salamanders. We believe that continued monitoring of terrestrial salamander populations is important to understanding mechanisms of population declines in amphibian species. Copyright 2007 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

PubMed

Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

2018-05-01

Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) population qrowth by targeting nesting season vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felton, Shilo K.; Hostetter, Nathan J.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2017-01-01

In populations of long-lived species, adult survival typically has a relatively high influence on population growth. From a management perspective, however, adult survival can be difficult to increase in some instances, so other component rates must be considered to reverse population declines. In North Carolina, USA, management to conserve the American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) targets component vital rates related to fecundity, specifically nest and chick survival. The effectiveness of such a management approach in North Carolina was assessed by creating a three-stage female-based deterministic matrix model. Isoclines were produced from the matrix model to evaluate minimum nest and chick survival rates necessary to reverse population decline, assuming all other vital rates remained stable at mean values. Assuming accurate vital rates, breeding populations within North Carolina appear to be declining. To reverse this decline, combined nest and chick survival would need to increase from 0.14 to ≤ 0.27, a rate that appears to be attainable based on historical estimates. Results are heavily dependent on assumptions of other vital rates, most notably adult survival, revealing the need for accurate estimates of all vital rates to inform management actions. This approach provides valuable insights for evaluating conservation goals for species of concern.

What Happened to Nezara viridula (L.) in the Americas? Possible Reasons to Explain Populations Decline.

PubMed

Panizzi, A R; Lucini, T

2016-12-01

Once abundant in the Americas, the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (L.) has gradually declined in numbers. Until the 1990s, it was considered the main pest of major crops such as soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merrill, particularly in southern Brazil and southern USA, as well as Argentina, Uruguay, and other countries. In the past 15+ years, a dramatic population decrease was observed to the point of now being considered a secondary pest in these referred countries. In this article, we list and discuss possible reasons which explain the decline in N. viridula population in the Americas. These factors include the following: (1) the steady increase of herbicides used in no-tillage/multiple cropping systems affecting potential hosts such as weeds in crop fields and nearby natural vegetation; (2) the change in cultivation systems, mostly in the Neotropics, favoring other species more adapted to exploit crops in modern day agriculture; (3) competition among several species of stink bugs that colonize major crops; (4) the growing impact of several species of egg parasitoids, some of them laboratory reared and released in crop fields, and other natural enemies (parasitoids and predators); and (5) the impact of global climate change affecting its distribution and biology.

Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

Stormy oceans are associated with declines in sea turtle hatching.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Bass, Oron L

2007-08-07

Many sea turtle populations are below 10% of their pre-Columbian numbers [1-4]. Though historic and systematic over-exploitation is the principal cause of these declines, sea turtles face similar threats today. Adults and juveniles are actively hunted and commercial fisheries catch them incidentally. Nesting suffers from beach development, egg poaching and the poaching of nesting females. Accompanying these familiar hazards is the largely unknown consequences of recent climate change. Here we report monitoring surveys from the Dry Tortugas National Park (DTNP, 24.64N 82.86W), Florida, and show that hurricanes and other storm events are an additional and increasing threat to loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) and green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) nesting. Both species are listed by the US Endangered Species Act and the IUCN considers them 'endangered'.

An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale.

PubMed

Jackson, Jennifer A; Carroll, Emma L; Smith, Tim D; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Patenaude, Nathalie J; Baker, C Scott

2016-03-01

Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800-47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30-40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration.

An integrated approach to historical population assessment of the great whales: case of the New Zealand southern right whale

PubMed Central

Jackson, Jennifer A.; Carroll, Emma L.; Smith, Tim D.; Zerbini, Alexandre N.; Patenaude, Nathalie J.; Baker, C. Scott

2016-01-01

Accurate estimation of historical abundance provides an essential baseline for judging the recovery of the great whales. This is particularly challenging for whales hunted prior to twentieth century modern whaling, as population-level catch records are often incomplete. Assessments of whale recovery using pre-modern exploitation indices are therefore rare, despite the intensive, global nature of nineteenth century whaling. Right whales (Eubalaena spp.) were particularly exploited: slow swimmers with strong fidelity to sheltered calving bays, the species made predictable and easy targets. Here, we present the first integrated population-level assessment of the whaling impact and pre-exploitation abundance of a right whale, the New Zealand southern right whale (E. australis). In this assessment, we use a Bayesian population dynamics model integrating multiple data sources: nineteenth century catches, genetic constraints on bottleneck size and individual sightings histories informing abundance and trend. Different catch allocation scenarios are explored to account for uncertainty in the population's offshore distribution. From a pre-exploitation abundance of 28 800–47 100 whales, nineteenth century hunting reduced the population to approximately 30–40 mature females between 1914 and 1926. Today, it stands at less than 12% of pre-exploitation abundance. Despite the challenges of reconstructing historical catches and population boundaries, conservation efforts of historically exploited species benefit from targets for ecological restoration. PMID:27069657

A model for sex ratio decline in India.

PubMed

Thukral, A K

1996-01-01

"The sex ratio in India has declined from 972 females per 1,000 males in 1901 to 929 females per 1,000 males in 1991. A model [is] proposed for the quantitative analysis of the problem.... The study reveals that there has been a sex discriminated population growth in India in the twentieth century, although the rate of decline of the female has decreased. If the current trend of population growth continues, there will be a further decline in the [sex ratio]." excerpt

Historical records of the geomagnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneitz, Patrick; Heilig, Balázs; Vadasz, Gergely; Valach, Fridrich; Dolinský, Peter; Hejda, Pavel; Fabian, Karl; Hammerl, Christa; Leonhardt, Roman

2014-05-01

Records of historical direct measurements of the geomagnetic field are invaluable sources to reconstruct temporal variations of the Earth's magnetic field. They provide information about the field evolution back to the late Middle Age. We have investigated such records with focus on Austria and some neighbouring countries. A variety of new sources and source types are examined. These include 19th century land survey and observatory records of the Imperial and Royal "Centralanstalt f. Meteorologie und Erdmagnetismus", which are not included in the existing compilations. Daily measurements at the Imperial and Royal Observatory in Prague have been digitized. The Imperial and Royal Navy carried out observations in the Adriatic Sea during several surveys. Declination values have been collected from famous mining areas in the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. In this connection, a time series for Banska Stiavnica has been compiled. In the meteorological yearbooks of the monastery Kremsmünster regular declination measurements for the first half of the 19th century were registered. Marsigli's observations during military mapping works in 1696 are also included in our collection. Moreover, compass roses on historical maps or declination values marked on compasses, sundials or globes also provide information about ancient field declination. An evaluation of church orientations in Lower Austria and Northern Germany did not support the hypothesis that church naves had been aligned along the East-West direction by means of magnetic compasses. Therefore, this potential source of information must be excluded from our collection. The gathered records are integrated into a database together with corresponding metadata, such as the used measurement instruments and methods. This information allows an assessment of quality and reliability of the historical observations. The combination of compilations of historical measurements with high quality archeo- and paleomagnetic data in a

Declining Enrollments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wakefield, Howard E.; Donnelly, Richard A.

The five sections in this loose-leaf binder are intended to provide Wisconsin school board members with information necessary for decision-making on the problem of declining enrollment. Section 1 contains information about the extent of the problem and summarizes recent trends in population and school enrollments in the nation and the state.…

The fertility decline in Kenya.

PubMed

Robinson, W C; Harbison, S F

1995-01-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa Kenya is a prime example of a country experiencing a rapid decline in fertility and greater contraceptive prevalence. These changes have occurred since 1980 when fertility was high at 8.0 children per woman. In 1993 the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.4, and the growth rate declined to about 2.0%. This transition is swifter than any country in contemporary Asia or historical Europe. The likely projection for Kenya is attainment of replacement level fertility during the 2020s and a leveling of population at about 100 million persons. Fertility has declined the most in urban areas and central and eastern regions. Bongaarts' proximate determinants (TFR, total marital fertility rate, total natural marital fertility rate, and total fecundity) are reduced to the proportion of currently married women using contraception, the proportion in lactational nonfecund status, and the proportion currently married. Actual fertility change is accounted for by total fertility change of 3.0 children. Lactational infecundability accounts for 0.5 potential births, and changes in marital fertility account for 1.0 reduced births per woman. About 70% of fertility reduction is accounted for by contraception and abortion. During 1977-78 80% of fertility control was due to lactational nonfecundity, 10% to nonmarriage, and 10% to contraception. In 1993 lactational nonfecundity accounted for 50% of the reduction, nonmarriage for 20%, and abortion about 30%. Future fertility is expected to be dependent on contraceptive prevalence. Kenya has experienced the Coale paradigm of preconditions necessary for demographic transition (willing, ready, and able). High fertility in Africa is not intractable. Creating the change in attitudes that leads to readiness is linked to education, health, and exposure to modernizing media and urban lifestyles. The public sector family planning program in Kenya has created the opportunity for access and availability of contraception. The key

Coalescent genealogy samplers: windows into population history

PubMed Central

Kuhner, Mary K.

2016-01-01

Coalescent genealogy samplers attempt to estimate past qualities of a population, such as its size, growth rate, patterns of gene flow or time of divergence from another population, based on samples of molecular data. Genealogy samplers are increasingly popular because of their potential to disentangle complex population histories. In the last decade they have been widely applied to systems ranging from humans to viruses. Findings include detection of unexpected reproductive inequality in fish, new estimates of historical whale abundance, exoneration of humans for the prehistoric decline of bison and inference of a selective sweep on the human Y chromosome. This review summarizes available genealogy-sampler software, including data requirements and limitations on the use of each program. PMID:19101058

Coalescent genealogy samplers: windows into population history.

PubMed

Kuhner, Mary K

2009-02-01

Coalescent genealogy samplers attempt to estimate past qualities of a population, such as its size, growth rate, patterns of gene flow or time of divergence from another population, based on samples of molecular data. Genealogy samplers are increasingly popular because of their potential to disentangle complex population histories. In the last decade they have been widely applied to systems ranging from humans to viruses. Findings include detection of unexpected reproductive inequality in fish, new estimates of historical whale abundance, exoneration of humans for the prehistoric decline of bison and inference of a selective sweep on the human Y chromosome. This review summarizes available genealogy-sampler software, including data requirements and limitations on the use of each program.

Fractures as an independent predictor of functional decline in older people: a population-based study with an 8-year follow-up.

PubMed

Piirtola, Maarit; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Räihä, Ismo

2012-01-01

Fractures among older people are common, but there is scant evidence about the impact of fractures on functional decline in an unselected older population. The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of lower and upper body fractures on functional performance among older adults during an 8-year follow-up. A population-based cohort of 616 Finnish persons aged 65 and over was followed for up to 8 years, and the association between fractures and the risk of short-term (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline was analyzed. Fractures were categorized according their functional influence on mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) into lower and upper body fractures. Multivariate cumulative logistic regression model was used in the analyses. During the 8-year follow-up, 112 (18%) persons sustained at least one fracture. In the multivariate analyses, lower body fractures predicted both short-term and long-term decline in mobility [cumulative odds ratio (COR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.9-11.7 and COR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.2, respectively] and in ADL performance (COR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3-7.6 and COR 4.7, 95% CI 2.0-11.4, respectively). Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during the long-term follow-up (COR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-4.8). Pre-fracture functional decline and inactivity in leisure time physical exercise were independently associated with the risk of decline in extensive activities. Fractures have an independent influence on the development of functional decline in older persons regardless of the pre-fracture health. Prevention of falls and fractures and improvement of treatment, rehabilitation and follow-up process after fractures are needed. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Modeling Routes of Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission: Environmental Prion Persistence Promotes Deer Population Decline and Extinction

PubMed Central

Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

2011-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R 0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress. PMID:21603638

Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

2011-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

Rate of Decline of the Oriental White-Backed Vulture Population in India Estimated from a Survey of Diclofenac Residues in Carcasses of Ungulates

PubMed Central

Green, Rhys E.; Taggart, Mark A.; Senacha, Kalu Ram; Raghavan, Bindu; Pain, Deborah J.; Jhala, Yadvendradev; Cuthbert, Richard

2007-01-01

The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac is a major cause of the rapid declines in the Indian subcontinent of three species of vultures endemic to South Asia. The drug causes kidney failure and death in vultures. Exposure probably arises through vultures feeding on carcasses of domesticated ungulates treated with the drug. However, before the study reported here, it had not been established from field surveys of ungulate carcasses that a sufficient proportion was contaminated to cause the observed declines. We surveyed diclofenac concentrations in samples of liver from carcasses of domesticated ungulates in India in 2004–2005. We estimated the concentration of diclofenac in tissues available to vultures, relative to that in liver, and the proportion of vultures killed after feeding on a carcass with a known level of contamination. We assessed the impact of this mortality on vulture population trend with a population model. We expected levels of diclofenac found in ungulate carcasses in 2004–2005 to cause oriental white-backed vulture population declines of 80–99% per year, depending upon the assumptions used in the model. This compares with an observed rate of decline, from road transect counts, of 48% per year in 2000–2003. The precision of the estimate based upon carcass surveys is low and the two types of estimate were not significantly different. Our analyses indicate that the level of diclofenac contamination found in carcasses of domesticated ungulates in 2004–2005 was sufficient to account for the observed rapid decline of the oriental white-backed vulture in India. The methods we describe could be used again to assess changes in the effect on vulture population trend of diclofenac and similar drugs. In this way, the effectiveness of the recent ban in India on the manufacture and importation of diclofenac for veterinary use could be monitored. PMID:17668064

POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

Treesearch

JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

1997-01-01

Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

Can coyotes affect deer populations in Southeastern North America?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilgo, J., C.; Ray, H., Scott; Ruth, Charles

2010-07-01

ABSTRACT The coyote (Canis latrans) is a recent addition to the fauna of eastern North America, and in many areas coyote populations have been established for only a decade or two. Although coyotes are known predators of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in their historic range, effects this new predator may have on eastern deer populations have received little attention. We speculated that in the southeastern United States, coyotes may be affecting deer recruitment, and we present 5 lines of evidence that suggest this possibility. First, the statewide deer population in South Carolina has declined coincident with the establishment and increasemore » in the coyote population. Second, data sets from the Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina indicate a new mortality source affecting the deer population concurrent with the increase in coyotes. Third, an index of deer recruitment at SRS declined during the period of increase in coyotes. Fourth, food habits data from SRS indicate that fawns are an important food item for coyotes during summer. Finally, recent research from Alabama documented significant coyote predation on fawns there. Although this evidence does not establish cause and effect between coyotes and observed declines in deer recruitment, we argue that additional research should proactively address this topic in the region. We identified several important questions on the nature of the deer–coyote relationship in the East.« less

Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

PubMed

Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

2008-01-01

Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

Ecophysiology meets conservation: understanding the role of disease in amphibian population declines

PubMed Central

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Hoverman, Jason T.; Belden, Lisa K.; Bradley, Paul W.; Xie, Gisselle Y.

2012-01-01

Infectious diseases are intimately associated with the dynamics of biodiversity. However, the role that infectious disease plays within ecological communities is complex. The complex effects of infectious disease at the scale of communities and ecosystems are driven by the interaction between host and pathogen. Whether or not a given host–pathogen interaction results in progression from infection to disease is largely dependent on the physiological characteristics of the host within the context of the external environment. Here, we highlight the importance of understanding the outcome of infection and disease in the context of host ecophysiology using amphibians as a model system. Amphibians are ideal for such a discussion because many of their populations are experiencing declines and extinctions, with disease as an important factor implicated in many declines and extinctions. Exposure to pathogens and the host's responses to infection can be influenced by many factors related to physiology such as host life history, immunology, endocrinology, resource acquisition, behaviour and changing climates. In our review, we discuss the relationship between disease and biodiversity. We highlight the dynamics of three amphibian host–pathogen systems that induce different effects on hosts and life stages and illustrate the complexity of amphibian–host–parasite systems. We then review links between environmental stress, endocrine–immune interactions, disease and climate change. PMID:22566676

Egg Production in a Coastal Seabird, the Glaucous-Winged Gull (Larus glaucescens), Declines during the Last Century

PubMed Central

Blight, Louise K.

2011-01-01

Seabirds integrate information about oceanic ecosystems across time and space, and are considered sensitive indicators of marine conditions. To assess whether hypothesized long-term foodweb changes such as forage fish declines may be reflected in a consumer's life history traits over time, I used meta-regression to evaluate multi-decadal changes in aspects of egg production in the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens), a common coastal bird. Study data were derived from literature searches of published papers and unpublished historical accounts, museum egg collections, and modern field studies, with inclusion criteria based on data quality and geographic area of the original study. Combined historical and modern data showed that gull egg size declined at an average of 0.04 cc y−1 from 1902 (108 y), equivalent to a decline of 5% of mean egg volume, while clutch size decreased over 48 y from a mean of 2.82 eggs per clutch in 1962 to 2.25 in 2009. There was a negative relationship between lay date and mean clutch size in a given year, with smaller clutches occurring in years where egg laying commenced later. Lay date itself advanced over time, with commencement of laying presently (2008–2010) 7 d later than in previous studies (1959–1986). This study demonstrates that glaucous-winged gull investment in egg production has declined significantly over the past ∼50–100 y, with such changes potentially contributing to recent population declines. Though gulls are generalist feeders that should readily be able to buffer themselves against food web changes, they are likely nutritionally constrained during the early breeding period, when egg production requirements are ideally met by consumption of high-quality prey such as forage fish. This study's results suggest a possible decline in the availability of such prey, and the incremental long-term impoverishment of a coastal marine ecosystem bordering one of North America's rapidly growing urban areas. PMID

HIV decline associated with changes in risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal: analysis of population-based HIV prevalence surveys between 2001 and 2012.

PubMed

Deuba, Keshab; Ekström, Anna Mia; Tomson, Göran; Shrestha, Rachana; Marrone, Gaetano

2017-08-01

We assessed changes in HIV prevalence and risk behaviours among young key populations in Nepal. A total of 7505 participants (aged 16-24 years) from key populations who were at increased risk of HIV infection (2767 people who inject drugs (PWID); 852 men who have sex with men/transgender (MSM/TG); 2851 female sex workers (FSW) and 1035 male labour migrants) were recruited randomly over a 12-year period, 2001-2012. Local epidemic zones of Nepal (Kathmandu valley, Pokhara valley, Terai Highway and West to Far West hills) were analysed separately. We found a very strong and consistent decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade in different epidemic zones among PWID and MSM/TG in Kathmandu, the capital city, most likely due to a parallel increase in safe needle and syringe use and increased condom use. A decrease in HIV prevalence in 22 Terai highway districts, sharing an open border with India, was also consistent with increased condom use among FSW. Among male labour migrants, HIV prevalence was low throughout the period in the West to Far West hilly regions. Condom use by migrant workers involved with FSW abroad increased while their condom use with Nepalese FSW declined. Other risk determinants such as mean age at starting first injection, injection frequency, place of commercial sex solicitation, their mean age when leaving to work abroad did not change consistently across epidemic zones among the young key populations under study. In Nepal, the decline in HIV prevalence over the past decade was remarkably significant and consistent with an increase in condom use and safer use of clean needles and syringes. However, diverging trends in risk behaviours across local epidemic zones of Nepal suggest a varying degree of implementation of national HIV prevention policies. This calls for continued preventive efforts as well as surveillance to sustain the observed downward trend.

Historical pedigree reconstruction from extant populations using PArtitioning of RElatives (PREPARE).

PubMed

Shem-Tov, Doron; Halperin, Eran

2014-06-01

Recent technological improvements in the field of genetic data extraction give rise to the possibility of reconstructing the historical pedigrees of entire populations from the genotypes of individuals living today. Current methods are still not practical for real data scenarios as they have limited accuracy and assume unrealistic assumptions of monogamy and synchronized generations. In order to address these issues, we develop a new method for pedigree reconstruction, [Formula: see text], which is based on formulations of the pedigree reconstruction problem as variants of graph coloring. The new formulation allows us to consider features that were overlooked by previous methods, resulting in a reconstruction of up to 5 generations back in time, with an order of magnitude improvement of false-negatives rates over the state of the art, while keeping a lower level of false positive rates. We demonstrate the accuracy of [Formula: see text] compared to previous approaches using simulation studies over a range of population sizes, including inbred and outbred populations, monogamous and polygamous mating patterns, as well as synchronous and asynchronous mating.

Catastrophic Decline of World's Largest Primate: 80% Loss of Grauer's Gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) Population Justifies Critically Endangered Status.

PubMed

Plumptre, Andrew J; Nixon, Stuart; Kujirakwinja, Deo K; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Critchlow, Rob; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Nishuli, Radar; Kirkby, Andrew E; Hall, Jefferson S

2016-01-01

Grauer's gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World's largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer's gorilla's range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer's gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi-Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82-100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km2. We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer's gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.

The possible correlation between dental enamel hypoplasia and a historic natural disaster in the Roman population of Herculaneum (79 AD - central Italy).

PubMed

D'Anastasio, R; Cesana, D T; Viciano, J; Sciubba, M; Nibaruta, P; Capasso, L

2013-01-01

Dental enamel hypoplasia is usually read as a sign of a systematic growth disturbance during childhood. Following the analysis of human teeth from Herculaneum (79 AD, Central Italy), the authors focused on linear enamel hypoplasia (LEH) manifestations in order to delineate a possible correlation between their frequency and distribution and the earthquake that occurred in 62 AD, which is well documented in historical literature. The human remains from Herculaneum were buried at the same time as the Vesuvius eruption and represent an exceptional snapshot of life in the Roman Imperial Age. The Goodman and Rose method (1990) was used for attributing an "age at the moment of stress" for every skeleton in order to delineate the epidemiology of the enamel hypoplasia. When LEH frequency was analysed by age, two different age groups showed relevant patterns of hypoplasia: the first peak was evident in individuals between 14 and 20 years who were younger than 6 years at the time of the 62 AD earthquake, and a second peak was noted in adults of 30 +/- 5 years old, which suggests the presence of another stressful event that occurred 10 years before the earthquake, around 53 AD. The bimodal distribution of enamel hypoplasia could be the consequence of two different historical periods characterized by instability in the food supply, unhygienic conditions, and epidemic episodes; our data suggest that the first peak could be related to a decline in health status as an effect of the 62 AD earthquake. The relationship between recent natural disasters and variations in health status in modern populations is well documented in scientific literature. Our research represents the first attempt to correlate the status of health to an earthquake of known date in an archaeological population.

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

2006-01-01

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at

Declining Academic Fields in U.S. Four-Year Colleges and Universities, 1970-2006

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brint, Steven; Proctor, Kristopher; Mulligan, Kerry; Rotondi, Matthew B.; Hanneman, Robert A.

2012-01-01

This research identifies 22 fields that declined in absolute numbers and/or prevalence over a 35-year period. Most were basic fields in the arts and sciences. Steep declines were evident only in a few fields, notably European languages and literatures. Larger, higher status, and historically liberal arts oriented institutions were less likely to…

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

The Decline in Mobility and Its Impact on Passenger Travel

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

Residential mobility rates in the United States (US) have historically been among the highest in the world (Molloy et al, 2011); however, these rates have been in steady decline for the last two decades. While most planning models have ignored migrat...

Historical demography of common carp estimated from individuals collected from various parts of the world using the pairwise sequentially markovian coalescent approach.

PubMed

Yuan, Zihao; Huang, Wei; Liu, Shikai; Xu, Peng; Dunham, Rex; Liu, Zhanjiang

2018-04-01

The inference of historical demography of a species is helpful for understanding species' differentiation and its population dynamics. However, such inference has been previously difficult due to the lack of proper analytical methods and availability of genetic data. A recently developed method called Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) offers the capability for estimation of the trajectories of historical populations over considerable time periods using genomic sequences. In this study, we applied this approach to infer the historical demography of the common carp using samples collected from Europe, Asia and the Americas. Comparison between Asian and European common carp populations showed that the last glacial period starting 100 ka BP likely caused a significant decline in population size of the wild common carp in Europe, while it did not have much of an impact on its counterparts in Asia. This was probably caused by differences in glacial activities in East Asia and Europe, and suggesting a separation of the European and Asian clades before the last glacial maximum. The North American clade which is an invasive population shared a similar demographic history as those from Europe, consistent with the idea that the North American common carp probably had European ancestral origins. Our analysis represents the first reconstruction of the historical population demography of the common carp, which is important to elucidate the separation of European and Asian common carp clades during the Quaternary glaciation, as well as the dispersal of common carp across the world.

Ginkgo Biloba Extract and Long-Term Cognitive Decline: A 20-Year Follow-Up Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Amieva, Hélène; Meillon, Céline; Helmer, Catherine; Barberger-Gateau, Pascale; Dartigues, Jean François

2013-01-01

Background Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan®) and piracetam (Nootropyl®) on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period. Methods and Findings The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study ‘Paquid’. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the ‘neither treatment’ group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the ‘neither treatment’ group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = −0.6). Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the ‘neither treatment’ group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = −0.03), whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = −1.40 and β = −0.44). When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = −1.07, β = −1.61 and β = −0.41). Conclusion Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in

Mechanisms of population differentiation in marbled murrelets: historical versus contemporary processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Congdon, B.C.; Piatt, John F.; Martin, Kathy; Friesen, Vicki L.

2000-01-01

Mechanisms of population differentiation in highly vagile species such as seabirds are poorly understood. Previous studies of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus; Charadriiformes: Alcidae) found significant population genetic structure, but could not determine whether this structure is due to historical vicariance (e.g., due to Pleistocene glaciers), isolation by distance, drift or selection in peripheral populations, or nesting habitat selection. To discriminate among these possibilities, we analyzed sequence variation in nine nuclear introns from 120 marbled murrelets sampled from British Columbia to the western Aleutian Islands. Mismatch distributions indicated that murrelets underwent at least one population expansion during the Pleistocene and probably are not in genetic equilibrium. Maximum-likelihood analysis of allele frequencies suggested that murrelets from 'mainland' sites (from the Alaskan Peninsula east) are genetically different from those in the Aleutians and that these two lineages diverged prior to the last glaciation. Analyses of molecular variance, as well as estimates of gene flow derived using coalescent theory, indicate that population genetic structure is best explained by peripheral isolation of murrelets in the Aleutian Islands, rather than by selection associated with different nesting habitats. No isolation-by-distance effects could be detected. Our results are consistent with a rapid expansion of murrelets from a single refugium during the early-mid Pleistocene, subsequent isolation and divergence in two or more refugia during the final Pleistocene glacial advance, and secondary contact following retreat of the ice sheets. Population genetic structure now appears to be maintained by distance effects combined with small populations and a highly fragmented habitat in the Aleutian Islands.

Hallux valgus in a historical French population: paleopathological study of 605 first metatarsal bones.

PubMed

Mafart, Bertrand

2007-03-01

To estimate the prevalence of hallux valgus in a historical population in France, to identify associated skeletal abnormalities, and to look for an influence of footwear changes through time. We studied the 605 first metatarsals found in the necropolis of the Notre-Dame-du-Bourg cathedral in Digne in the Alpes-de-Hautes-Provence region of southern France. The necropolis contains remains from the 5th to the 17th century. Hallux valgus was identified only in individuals older than 30years at death, and its prevalence increased significantly with age. Exostosis at the medial and dorsal aspects of the head of the first metatarsal were common in advanced forms. The prevalence was comparable in males and females in the Middle Ages but was significantly higher in males in the 16th and 17th centuries, whereas in contemporary populations females are selectively affected. The increase in the prevalence of hallux valgus over time suggests an influence of changes in footwear. The heeled shoes and boots made of stiff leather that men wore in premodern times probably promoted the development of hallux valgus. However, the prevalence of hallux valgus in women in western industrialized countries today is even higher than that in our historical population of older premodern individuals, suggesting an extremely deleterious effect of contemporary female footwear.

Decline in Physical Function and Risk for Elder Abuse Reported to Social Services in a Community-Dwelling Population of Older Adults

PubMed Central

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Evans, Denis

2012-01-01

Objectives Elder abuse is an important public health and human rights issue and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to examine the longitudinal association between decline in physical function and the risk for elder abuse. Design Prospective population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) is a population-based study (N=6,159), and we identified 143 CHAP participants who had elder abuse reported to social services agency from 1993–2010. Participants The primary independent variable was objectively assessed physical function using decline in physical performance testing (Tandem stand, measured walk and chair stand). Secondary independent variables were assessed using the decline in self-reported Katz, Nagi, and Rosow-Breslau scales. Outcomes were reported and confirmed elder abuse and specific subtypes of elder abuse (physical, psychological, caregiver neglect and financial exploitation). Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of decline in physical function measures and risk for elder abuse. Results After adjusting for potential confounders, every 1 point decline in physical performance testing (OR, 1.13(1.06–1.19)), Katz impairment (OR, 1.29(1.15–1.45)), Nagi impairment (OR, 1.30(1.13–1.49)) and Rosow Breslau impairment (OR, 1.42(1.15–1.74)) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Lowest tertiles of physical performance testing (OR, 4.92 (1.39–17.46), highest tertiles of Katz impairment (OR, 3.99 (2.18–7.31), Nagi impairment (OR, 2.37 (1.08–5.23), and Rosow Breslau impairment (2.85 (1.39–5.84) were associated with increased risk for elder abuse. Conclusion Decline in objectively assessed physical function and self-reported physical function are associated with increased risk for elder abuse. PMID:23002901

Cognitive decline following incident and preexisting diabetes mellitus in a population sample.

PubMed

Rajan, Kumar B; Arvanitakis, Zoe; Lynch, Elizabeth B; McAninch, Elizabeth A; Wilson, Robert S; Weuve, Jennifer; Barnes, Lisa L; Bianco, Antonio C; Evans, Denis A

2016-10-18

To examine if incident and preexisting diabetes mellitus (DM) were associated with cognitive decline among African Americans (AAs) and European Americans (EAs). Based on a prospective study of 7,740 older adults (mean age 72.3 years, 64% AA, 63% female), DM was ascertained by hypoglycemic medication use and Medicare claims during physician or hospital visits, and cognition by performance on a brief battery for executive functioning, episodic memory, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Decline in composite and individual tests among those with incident DM, with preexisting DM, and without DM was studied using a linear mixed effects model with and without change point. At baseline, 737 (15%) AAs and 269 (10%) EAs had preexisting DM. Another 721 (17%) AAs and 289 (12%) EAs had incident DM in old age. Following incident DM, cognitive decline increased by 36% among AAs and by 40% among EAs compared to those without DM. No significant difference was observed between AAs and EAs (p = 0.64). However, cognitive decline increased by 17% among AAs with preexisting DM compared to those without DM, but no increased decline was observed among EAs with preexisting DM. In secondary analyses, faster decline in executive functioning and episodic memory was observed following incident DM. In old age, faster cognitive decline was present among AAs and EAs following incident DM, compared to cognitive decline prior to DM, and among those without DM. This underscores the need for stronger prevention and control of DM in old age. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Molecular insights into the historic demography of bowhead whales: understanding the evolutionary basis of contemporary management practices

PubMed Central

Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W

2013-01-01

Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

PubMed

Pleasants, John M; Zalucki, Myron P; Oberhauser, Karen S; Brower, Lincoln P; Taylor, Orley R; Thogmartin, Wayne E

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Decline in admissions for childhood asthma, a 26-year period population-based study.

PubMed

Mikalsen, Ingvild Bruun; Skeiseid, Liliane; Tveit, Line Merete; Engelsvold, David Hugo; Øymar, Knut

2015-12-01

The prevalence of childhood asthma has increased, although the rate of hospitalization for asthma seems to decrease. In Norway, the rate of hospital admission for childhood asthma from 1984 to 2000 increased. The aim of this study was to assess further trends in hospital admissions for childhood asthma up to 2010. A population-based study including children 1-13 yrs of age hospitalized for asthma during six periods from 1984/1985 to 2009/2010 in Rogaland, Norway, was performed. Medical records from 1536 admissions (1050 children) were studied; and gender, age, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, medications and symptoms were recorded. For all age groups, the rate of admissions per 10.000 increased from 20.1 in 1984/85 to 33.7 in 1989/90, but declined to 14.4 in 2009/2010. Rates were highest in boys (OR 1.87; 95% CI: 1.69, 2.09), younger age groups (OR 2.51; 2.38, 2.64) and decreased from 1984 to 2010 (OR 0.92; 0.88, 0.94). The rates of readmissions were higher than for primary admissions (OR 1.33; 1.19, 1.47). From 1984 to 2010, there was an increased use of inhaled corticosteroids prior to admission (6 to 51%) and started at discharge (7 to 37%), and systemic steroids given during admission (19 to 83%). There has been a substantial decline in the rate of hospital admissions for childhood asthma after 1989/1990, with major differences between age groups and genders. The decline could be due to improved care of children with asthma or a real reduction in asthma exacerbations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historical isolation and contemporary gene flow drive population diversity of the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii along the coast of China.

PubMed

Li, Jing-Jing; Hu, Zi-Min; Sun, Zhong-Min; Yao, Jian-Ting; Liu, Fu-Li; Fresia, Pablo; Duan, De-Lin

2017-12-07

Long-term survival in isolated marginal seas of the China coast during the late Pleistocene ice ages is widely believed to be an important historical factor contributing to population genetic structure in coastal marine species. Whether or not contemporary factors (e.g. long-distance dispersal via coastal currents) continue to shape diversity gradients in marine organisms with high dispersal capability remains poorly understood. Our aim was to explore how historical and contemporary factors influenced the genetic diversity and distribution of the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, which can drift on surface water, leading to long-distance dispersal. We used 11 microsatellites and the plastid RuBisCo spacer to evaluate the genetic diversity of 22 Sargassum thunbergii populations sampled along the China coast. Population structure and differentiation was inferred based on genotype clustering and pairwise F ST and allele-frequency analyses. Integrated genetic analyses revealed two genetic clusters in S. thunbergii that dominated in the Yellow-Bohai Sea (YBS) and East China Sea (ECS) respectively. Higher levels of genetic diversity and variation were detected among populations in the YBS than in the ECS. Bayesian coalescent theory was used to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow. High levels of contemporary gene flow were detected from the YBS (north) to the ECS (south), whereas low levels of historical gene flow occurred between the two regions. Our results suggest that the deep genetic divergence in S. thunbergii along the China coast may result from long-term geographic isolation during glacial periods. The dispersal of S. thunbergii driven by coastal currents may facilitate the admixture between southern and northern regimes. Our findings exemplify how both historical and contemporary forces are needed to understand phylogeographical patterns in coastal marine species with long-distance dispersal.

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Catastrophic Decline of World's Largest Primate: 80% Loss of Grauer's Gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) Population Justifies Critically Endangered Status

PubMed Central

Nixon, Stuart; Kujirakwinja, Deo K.; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Critchlow, Rob; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Nishuli, Radar; Kirkby, Andrew E.; Hall, Jefferson S.

2016-01-01

Grauer’s gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World’s largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer’s gorilla’s range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer’s gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi-Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82–100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km2. We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer’s gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. PMID:27760201

Impacts of Declining Mississippi River Sediment Load on Subaqueous Delta Front Sedimentation and Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maloney, J. M.; Bentley, S. J.; Xu, K.; Georgiou, I. Y.; Miner, M. D.

2016-02-01

The Mississippi River delta system is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic alterations to the river and its delta. Since the 1950s, the suspended sediment load of the Mississippi River has decreased by approximately 50% due to the construction of >50,000 dams in the Mississippi basin. The impact of this decreased sediment load has been observed in subaerial environments, but the impact on sedimentation and geomorphology of the subaqueous delta front has yet to be examined. To identify historic trends in sedimentation patterns, we compiled bathymetric datasets, including historical charts, industry and academic surveys, and NOAA data, collected between 1764 and 2009. Sedimentation rates are variable across the delta front, but are highest near the mouth of Southwest Pass, which carries the largest percentage of Mississippi River flow and sediment into the Gulf of Mexico. The progradation rate of Southwest Pass (measured at the 10 m depth contour) has slowed from 67 m/yr between 1764 and 1940 to 26 m/yr between 1940 and 1979, with evidence of further deceleration from 1979-2009. Decreased rates of progradation are also observed at South Pass and Pass A Loutre, with the 10 m contour retreating at rates >20 m/yr at both passes. Advancement of the delta front also decelerated in deeper water (15-90 m) offshore from Southwest Pass. In this area, from 1940-1979, depth contours advanced seaward 30 m/yr, but rates declined from 1979-2005. Furthermore, over the same area, the sediment accumulation rate decreased by 81% for the same period. The Mississippi River delta front appears to be entering a phase of decline, which will likely be accelerated by future upstream management practices. This decline has implications for offshore ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, pollutant dispersal, mudflow hazard, and the continued use of the delta as an economic and population center.

Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860-1939.

PubMed

Schellekens, Jona; van Poppel, Frans

2012-08-01

Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

Contrasts in genetic structure and historical demography of marine and riverine populations of Atherina at similar geographical scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francisco, Sara M.; Cabral, Henrique; Vieira, Maria Natividade; Almada, Vítor C.

2006-09-01

In this paper, we compare the genetic structure and the historical demography of two populations of the sand smelt Atherina boyeri from the rivers Tagus and Mondego (Portugal) with two groups of samples of the closely related marine Atherina presbyter collected on the shore at comparable latitudes. A. presbyter is a pelagic marine inshore fish, while A. boyeri is typically found in coastal lagoons, estuaries and freshwaters bodies. Analysis of mtDNA control region sequences showed that the marine A. presbyter did not display signs of genetic differentiation between sites some hundreds of kilometers apart. On the contrary, A. boyeri showed clear differences between populations. The populations of A. boyeri showed a much lower genetic diversity and younger coalescence times when compared with A. presbyter. We suggest that these differences reflect the interplay between differences in ecology between the two species and the historical impact of the glaciations. While A. presbyter likely moved to the south evading the cold periods, A. boyeri probably went extinct and its populations in Western Europe are recent recolonizations from western Mediterranean refugia.

Disparities in Age-Associated Cognitive Decline Between African-American and Caucasian Populations: The Roles of Health Literacy and Education.

PubMed

Gupta, Vishal K; Winter, Michael; Cabral, Howard; Henault, Lori; Waite, Katherine; Hanchate, Amresh; Bickmore, Timothy W; Wolf, Michael S; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K

2016-08-01

To examine health literacy as a mediator of racial disparities in cognitive decline as measured by executive function in elderly adults. Prospective cohort study. Secondary analysis of ElderWalk trial in Boston, Massachusetts. English-speaking African-American and Caucasian individuals in a walking intervention for community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older without dementia at baseline who completed baseline and 12-month evaluations (N = 198). Health literacy was measured using the Short Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults. Fluid and crystallized cognitive functions were measured at baseline and 12 months using the Trail-Making Test Part B minus Part B (TMT B-A) and the Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT). Associations between health literacy and 12-month cognitive decline were modeled using multivariate linear regression. Participants with higher health literacy and education experienced less cognitive decline than those with limited health literacy according to the TMT B-A (P = .01). After adjusting for covariates, Caucasian participants (n = 63) experienced less decline than African-American participants (n = 135) on TMT B-A (P = .001) and COWAT (P = .001). Adjusting for health literacy led to a 25.3% decrease in the point estimate for racial difference in TMT B-A and a 19.5% decrease in COWAT. Although independently related to cognitive decline, educational attainment did not mediate racial differences. Health literacy is a partial mediator of racial disparities in cognitive decline. These results indicate the need to develop interventions to mitigate cognitive decline that individuals with low heath literacy can use and to modify the healthcare environment to better accommodate this population. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

PubMed

Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

1978-10-01

This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

The HISTMAG database: combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneitz, Patrick; Leonhardt, Roman; Schnepp, Elisabeth; Heilig, Balázs; Mayrhofer, Franziska; Kovacs, Peter; Hejda, Pavel; Valach, Fridrich; Vadasz, Gergely; Hammerl, Christa; Egli, Ramon; Fabian, Karl; Kompein, Niko

2017-09-01

Records of the past geomagnetic field can be divided into two main categories. These are instrumental historical observations on the one hand, and field estimates based on the magnetization acquired by rocks, sediments and archaeological artefacts on the other hand. In this paper, a new database combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic records is presented. HISTMAG is a relational database, implemented in MySQL, and can be accessed via a web-based interface (http://www.conrad-observatory.at/zamg/index.php/data-en/histmag-database). It combines available global historical data compilations covering the last ∼500 yr as well as archaeomagnetic and volcanic data collections from the last 50 000 yr. Furthermore, new historical and archaeomagnetic records, mainly from central Europe, have been acquired. In total, 190 427 records are currently available in the HISTMAG database, whereby the majority is related to historical declination measurements (155 525). The original database structure was complemented by new fields, which allow for a detailed description of the different data types. A user-comment function provides the possibility for a scientific discussion about individual records. Therefore, HISTMAG database supports thorough reliability and uncertainty assessments of the widely different data sets, which are an essential basis for geomagnetic field reconstructions. A database analysis revealed systematic offset for declination records derived from compass roses on historical geographical maps through comparison with other historical records, while maps created for mining activities represent a reliable source.

Continued Declines in Teen Births in the United States, 2015.

PubMed

Hamilton, Brady E; Mathews, T J

2016-09-01

•The teen birth rate declined to another historic low for the United States in 2015, down 8% from 2014 to 22.3 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19. •The birth rates for teenagers aged 15-17 and 18-19 declined in 2015 to 9.9 and 40.7, respectively, which are record lows for both groups. •In 2015, birth rates declined to 6.9 for Asian or Pacific Islander, 16.0 for non-Hispanic white, 25.7 for American Indian or Alaska Native, 31.8 for non-Hispanic black, and 34.9 for Hispanic female teenagers aged 15-19. •Birth rates fell to record lows for nearly all race and Hispanic-origin groups of females aged 15-19, 15-17, and 18-19 in 2015. The birth rate for teenagers aged 15-19 has fallen almost continuously since 1991, reaching historic lows for the nation every year since 2009 (1-4). Despite declines in all racial and ethnic groups, teen birth rates continue to vary considerably by race and ethnicity. Moreover, the U.S. teen birth rate remains higher than in other industrialized countries (5). Childbearing by teenagers continues to be a matter of public concern. This report presents the recent and long-term trends and disparity in teen childbearing by race and Hispanic origin. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Defining population structure and genetic signatures of decline in the giant garter snake (Thamnophis gigas): implications for conserving threatened species within highly altered landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Dustin A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Vandergast, Amy

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation can disrupt the ability of species to disperse across landscapes, which can alter the levels and distribution of genetic diversity within populations and negatively impact long-term viability. The giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) is a state and federally threatened species that historically occurred in the wetland habitats of California’s Great Central Valley. Despite the loss of 93 % of historic wetlands throughout the Central Valley, giant gartersnakes continue to persist in relatively small, isolated patches of highly modified agricultural wetlands. Gathering information regarding genetic diversity and effective population size represents an essential component for conservation management programs aimed at this species. Previous mitochondrial sequence studies have revealed historical patterns of differentiation, yet little is known about contemporary population structure and diversity. On the basis of 15 microsatellite loci, we estimate population structure and compare indices of genetic diversity among populations spanning seven drainage basins within the Central Valley. We sought to understand how habitat loss may have affected genetic differentiation, genetic diversity and effective population size, and what these patterns suggest in terms of management and restoration actions. We recovered five genetic clusters that were consistent with regional drainage basins, although three northern basins within the Sacramento Valley formed a single genetic cluster. Our results show that northern drainage basin populations have higher connectivity than among central and southern basins populations, and that greater differentiation exists among the more geographically isolated populations in the central and southern portion of the species’ range. Genetic diversity measures among basins were significantly different, and were generally lower in southern basin populations. Levels of inbreeding and evidence of population

History Jobs Decline 15% after Years of Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Robin

2009-01-01

This article reports that a five-year stretch of steady growth in the job market for academic historians is over. The number of job advertisements colleges have posted with the American Historical Association so far this academic year is down 15 percent from last year--the first decline since a slump that occurred in 2001-2002 and 2002-2003. The…

The future population and the future labour force.

PubMed

Young, C

1994-01-01

"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper.... Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population.... The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s." excerpt

Delta smelt: Life history and decline of a once abundant species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyle, Peter B.; Brown, Larry R.; Durand, John R; Hobbs, James A.

2016-01-01

This paper reviews what has been learned about Delta Smelt and its status since the publication of The State of Bay-Delta Science, 2008 (Healey et al. 2008). The Delta Smelt is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary. Much of its historic habitat is no longer available and remaining habitat is increasingly unable to sustain the population. As a listed species living in the central node of California’s water supply system, Delta Smelt has been the focus of a large research effort to understand causes of decline and identify ways to recover the species. Since 2008, a remarkable record of innovative research on Delta Smelt has been achieved, which is summarized here. Unfortunately, research has not prevented the smelt’s continued decline, which is the result of multiple, interacting factors. A major driver of decline is change to the Delta ecosystem from water exports, resulting in reduced outflows and high levels of entrainment in the large pumps of the South Delta. Invasions of alien species, encouraged by environmental change, have also played a contributing role in the decline. Severe drought effects have pushed Delta Smelt to record low levels in 2014–2015. The rapid decline of the species and failure of recovery efforts demonstrate an inability to manage the Delta for the “co-equal goals” of maintaining a healthy ecosystem and providing a reliable water supply for Californians. Diverse and substantial management actions are needed to preserve Delta Smelt.

[The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

PubMed

Rhein, E

1994-08-25

The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

PubMed

Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

1990-12-01

Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

Demography and decline of the Mentasta Caribou Herd, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Barten, Neil L.

2005-01-01

We evaluated population trends in the Mentasta caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) herd in Wrangell a?? St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, from 1990 to 1997 and determined factors contributing to its decline. We postulated that predation-related mortality of adult females and juveniles was the proximate cause of the decline, and that survival of juvenile caribou reflected interactions with winter severity, calving distribution, timing of births, density of caribou, and physical condition of neonates at birth. The population declined at its greatest rate from 1990 to 1993 (r = a??0.32) and at a lower rate from 1994 to 1997 (r = a??0.09). Recruitment (number of calves/100 females during September) averaged 4/100 during the rapid population decline from 1990 to 1993 and 13/100 from 1994 to 1997. Parturition rate of adult females ranged from 65% to 97%. Survival of adult females and juveniles ranged from 0.77 to 0.86 and from 0.00 to 0.22, respectively. Approximately 43%, 59%, and 79% of all juvenile mortality occurred by 1, 2, and 4 weeks of age, respectively. We confirmed predation-related mortality as the primary proximate cause of population decline, with gray wolves (Canis lupus L., 1758), bears (species of the genus Ursus L., 1758), and other predators accounting for 57%, 38%, and 5%, respectively, of all juvenile mortality, and bears causing disproportionate mortality among 0- to 1-week-old neonates. We supported the hypotheses that timing of birth and habitat conditions at the birth site, particularly mottled snow patterns, affected vulnerability and survival of neonates, and birth mass affected survival of juveniles through summer. We speculate that the population will continue to decline before reaching a low-density equilibrium that is sustained by density-dependent changes in the functional responses of predators.

Trypanosomes genetic diversity, polyparasitism and the population decline of the critically endangered Australian marsupial, the brush tailed bettong or woylie (Bettongia penicillata)

PubMed Central

Botero, Adriana; Thompson, Craig K.; Peacock, Christopher S.; Clode, Peta L.; Nicholls, Philip K.; Wayne, Adrian F.; Lymbery, Alan J.; Thompson, R.C. Andrew

2013-01-01

While much is known of the impact of trypanosomes on human and livestock health, trypanosomes in wildlife, although ubiquitous, have largely been considered to be non-pathogenic. We describe the genetic diversity, tissue tropism and potential pathogenicity of trypanosomes naturally infecting Western Australian marsupials. Blood samples collected from 554 live-animals and 250 tissue samples extracted from 50 carcasses of sick-euthanized or road-killed animals, belonging to 10 species of marsupials, were screened for the presence of trypanosomes using a PCR of the 18S rDNA gene. PCR results revealed a rate of infection of 67% in blood and 60% in tissues. Inferred phylogenetic trees using 18S rDNA and glycosomal glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase (gGAPDH) sequences showed the presence of eight genotypes that clustered into three clades: a clade including Trypanosoma copemani, a new clade closely related to Trypanosoma gilletti, and a clade including Trypanosoma H25 from an Australian kangaroo. Trypanosome infections were compared in a declining and in a stable population of the endangered Australian marsupial, the brush tailed bettong or woylie (Bettongia penicillata). This marsupial showed high rates of infection with Clade A genotypes (96%) in the declining population, whereas in the stable population, Clade B genotypes were predominant (89%). Mixed infections were common in woylies from the declining but not from the stable population. Histopathological findings associated with either mixed or single infections involving Clade A genotypes, showed a strong inflammatory process and tissue degeneration predominantly in heart, oesophagus and tongue. Trypanosomes were successfully grown in culture and for the first time we demonstrate that a genotype within Clade A has the capacity to not only colonize different tissues in the host but also to invade cells in vitro. These results provide evidence for the potential role of trypanosomes in the decline of a formerly

Historical range, current distribution, and conservation status of the Swift Fox, Vulpes velox, in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, Marsha A.; Woodward, Robert O.; Igl, Lawrence D.

2009-01-01

The Swift Fox (Vulpes velox) was once common in the shortgrass and mixed-grass prairies of the Great Plains of North America. The species' abundance declined and its distribution retracted following European settlement of the plains. By the late 1800s, the species had been largely extirpated from the northern portion of its historical range, and its populations were acutely depleted elsewhere. Swift Fox populations have naturally recovered somewhat since the 1950s, but overall abundance and distribution remain below historical levels. In a 1995 assessment of the species' status under the US Endangered Species Act, the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that a designation of threatened or endangered was warranted, but the species was "precluded from listing by higher listing priorities." A major revelation of the 1995 assessment was the recognition that information useful for determining population status was limited. Fundamental information was missing, including an accurate estimate of the species' distribution before European settlement and an estimate of the species' current distribution and trends. The objectives of this paper are to fill those gaps in knowledge. Historical records were compiled and, in combination with knowledge of the habitat requirements of the species, the historical range of the Swift Fox is estimated to be approximately 1.5 million km2. Using data collected between 2001 and 2006, the species' current distribution is estimated to be about 44% of its historical range in the United States and 3% in Canada. Under current land use, approximately 39% of the species' historical range contains grassland habitats with very good potential for Swift Fox occupation and another 10% supports grasslands with characteristics that are less preferred (e.g., a sparse shrub component or taller stature) but still suitable. Additionally, land use on at least 25% of the historical range supports dryland farming, which can be suitable for Swift Fox

Activity patterns and time budgets of the declining sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gelatt, Thomas S.; Siniff, Donald B.; Estes, James A.

2002-01-01

Time budgets of predators may reflect population status if time spent foraging varies with local prey abun- dance. We assumed that the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population at Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, had been at equilibrium since the early 1960s and collected time budgets of otters to be used to represent future conditions of currently expanding sea otter populations. We used radiotelemetry to monitor activity-time budgets of otters from August 1992 to March 1994. Sea otter activity was directly linked to sex, age, weather condition, season, and time of day. Sea otters differed in percent time foraging among cohorts but not within cohorts. Percent time foraging ranged from 21% for females with very young (≤ 3weeks of age) dependent pups to 52% for females with old (≥10 weeks of age) pups. Otters foraged more and hauled out more as local sea conditions worsened. Adult males spent less time foraging during winter and spring, consistent with seasonal changes in prey selection. Time spent for- aging was similar to that reported for otters in California and an established population in Prince William Sound, Alaska, but greater than that of otters in recently established populations in Oregon and Alaska. Despite current evidence indicating that the population was in decline during our study, we were unable to recognize this change using time budgets. Our results illustrate the importance of stratifying analyses of activity patterns by age and sex cohorts and the complexity inherent in comparisons of behavioral data between different populations relying on distinct prey bases.

King penguin population on Macquarie Island recovers ancient DNA diversity after heavy exploitation in historic times.

PubMed

Heupink, Tim H; van den Hoff, John; Lambert, David M

2012-08-23

Historically, king penguin populations on Macquarie Island have suffered greatly from human exploitation. Two large colonies on the island were drastically reduced to a single small colony as a result of harvesting for the blubber oil industry. However, recent conservation efforts have resulted in the king penguin population expanding in numbers and range to recolonize previous as well as new sites. Ancient DNA methods were used to estimate past genetic diversity and combined with studies of modern populations, we are now able to compare past levels of variation with extant populations on northern Macquarie Island. The ancient and modern populations are closely related and show a similar level of genetic diversity. These results suggest that the king penguin population has recovered past genetic diversity in just 80 years owing to conservation efforts, despite having seen the brink of extinction.

King penguin population on Macquarie Island recovers ancient DNA diversity after heavy exploitation in historic times

PubMed Central

Heupink, Tim H.; van den Hoff, John; Lambert, David M.

2012-01-01

Historically, king penguin populations on Macquarie Island have suffered greatly from human exploitation. Two large colonies on the island were drastically reduced to a single small colony as a result of harvesting for the blubber oil industry. However, recent conservation efforts have resulted in the king penguin population expanding in numbers and range to recolonize previous as well as new sites. Ancient DNA methods were used to estimate past genetic diversity and combined with studies of modern populations, we are now able to compare past levels of variation with extant populations on northern Macquarie Island. The ancient and modern populations are closely related and show a similar level of genetic diversity. These results suggest that the king penguin population has recovered past genetic diversity in just 80 years owing to conservation efforts, despite having seen the brink of extinction. PMID:22357937

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

PubMed Central

Ackley, Sarah F.; Liu, Fengchen; Porco, Travis C.

2015-01-01

Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data. PMID:26421237

Grand Canyon Humpback Chub Population Improving

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, Matthew E.

2007-01-01

The humpback chub (Gila cypha) is a long-lived, freshwater fish found only in the Colorado River Basin. Physical adaptations-large adult body size, large predorsal hump, and small eyes-appear to have helped humpback chub evolve in the historically turbulent Colorado River. A variety of factors, including habitat alterations and the introduction of nonnative fishes, likely prompted the decline of native Colorado River fishes. Declining numbers propelled the humpback chub onto the Federal list of endangered species in 1967, and the species is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Ariz., and one in Grand Canyon, Ariz. The U.S. Geological Survey's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center oversees monitoring and research activities for the Grand Canyon population under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP). Analysis of data collected through 2006 suggests that the number of adult (age 4+ years) humpback chub in Grand Canyon increased to approximately 6,000 fish in 2006, following an approximate 40-50 percent decline between 1989 and 2001. Increasing numbers of adult fish appear to be the result of steadily increasing numbers of juvenile fish reaching adulthood beginning in the mid- to late-1990s and continuing through at least 2002.

Effect of Early Referral to Specialist in Dementia on Institutionalization and Functional Decline: Findings from a Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Pimouguet, Clément; Le-Goff, Mélanie; Rizzuto, Debora; Berr, Claudine; Leffondré, Karen; Pérès, Karine; Dartigues, Jean FranÇois; Helmer, Catherine

2016-01-01

Although early diagnosis has been hypothesized to benefit both patients and caregivers, until now studies evaluating the effect of early dementia diagnosis are lacking. To investigate the influence of early specialist referral for dementia on the risk of institutionalization and functional decline in Activity of Daily Living (ADL). Incident dementia cases were screened in a prospective population-based cohort, the Three-City Study, and initial specialist consultation for cognitive complaint was assessed at dementia diagnosis. Proportional hazard regression and illness-death models were used to test the association between specialist referral and, respectively, institutionalization and functional decline. Only one third of the incident individuals with dementia had consulted a specialist for cognitive problems early (36%). After adjustment on potential confounders (including cognitive and functional decline) and competing risk of death, participants who had consulted a specialist early in the disease course presented a higher rate of being institutionalized than those who did not (Hazard Ratio = 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.09- 3.64). But early specialist referral was not associated with further functional decline (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.71- 1.67). Early specialist referral in dementia is associated with increased risk of institutionalization but not with functional decline in ADL. These findings suggest that early care referral in dementia may be a marker of concern for patients and/or caregivers; subsequent medical and social care could be suboptimal or inappropriate to allow patients to stay longer at home.

Bayesian inference of a historical bottleneck in a heavily exploited marine mammal.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Grant, S M; Forcada, J; Phillips, C D

2011-10-01

Emerging Bayesian analytical approaches offer increasingly sophisticated means of reconstructing historical population dynamics from genetic data, but have been little applied to scenarios involving demographic bottlenecks. Consequently, we analysed a large mitochondrial and microsatellite dataset from the Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus gazella, a species subjected to one of the most extreme examples of uncontrolled exploitation in history when it was reduced to the brink of extinction by the sealing industry during the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Classical bottleneck tests, which exploit the fact that rare alleles are rapidly lost during demographic reduction, yielded ambiguous results. In contrast, a strong signal of recent demographic decline was detected using both Bayesian skyline plots and Approximate Bayesian Computation, the latter also allowing derivation of posterior parameter estimates that were remarkably consistent with historical observations. This was achieved using only contemporary samples, further emphasizing the potential of Bayesian approaches to address important problems in conservation and evolutionary biology. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Average household exposure to newspaper coverage about the harmful effects of hormone therapy and population-based declines in hormone therapy use.

PubMed

Haas, Jennifer S; Miglioretti, Diana L; Geller, Berta; Buist, Diana S M; Nelson, David E; Kerlikowske, Karla; Carney, Patricia A; Dash, Sarah; Breslau, Erica S; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel

2007-01-01

The news media facilitated the rapid dissemination of the findings from the estrogen plus progestin therapy arm of the Women's Health Initiative (EPT-WHI). To examine the relationship between the potential exposure to newspaper coverage and subsequent hormone therapy (HT) use. DESIGN/POPULATION: Population-based cohort of women receiving mammography at 7 sites (327,144 postmenopausal women). The outcome was the monthly prevalence of self-reported HT use. Circulation data for local, regional, and national newspapers was used to create zip-code level measures of the estimated average household exposure to newspaper coverage that reported the harmful effects of HT in July 2002. Women had an average potential household exposure of 1.4 articles. There was substantial variation in the level of average household exposure to newspaper coverage; women from rural sites received less than women from urban sites. Use of HT declined for all average potential exposure groups after the publication of the EPT-WHI. HT prevalence among women who lived in areas where there was an average household exposure of at least 3 articles declined significantly more (45 to 27%) compared to women who lived in areas with <1 article (43 to 31%) during each of the subsequent 5 months (relative risks 0.86-0.92; p < .006 for all). Greater average household exposure to newspaper coverage about the harms associated with HT was associated with a large population-based decline in HT use. Further studies should examine whether media coverage directly influences the health behavior of individual women.

Can individual and social patterns of resource use buffer animal populations against resource decline?

PubMed

Banks, Sam C; Lindenmayer, David B; Wood, Jeff T; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D J

2013-01-01

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater's possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1:1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species' biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.

Can Individual and Social Patterns of Resource Use Buffer Animal Populations against Resource Decline?

PubMed Central

Banks, Sam C.; Lindenmayer, David B.; Wood, Jeff T.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Blyton, Michaela D. J.

2013-01-01

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater’s possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1∶1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species’ biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance. PMID:23320100

Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

PubMed

Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

2018-01-18

Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

Population and society in twentieth-century Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Hirschman, C

1994-09-01

The historical demographic analysis in this article is a revision of a paper presented at the Conference of the Northwest Regional Consortium for Southeast Asian Studies in 1988 at the University of Oregon. The author takes the view that fertility has remained high in the Southeast Asian region due to the dynamics of colonialism and the reinforcement of traditional society. Industrialization, urbanization, and advancing education was not favored by colonial policy. The shift to planting cash crops was labor-intensive work which reinforced large families. The fertility decline after the 1960s is attributed to population pressure and the lower limits of land and production per family. Incentives for smaller families are identified as the expansion of mass education, increased consumer aspirations, and opportunities for modern sector employment. The impact of population growth is viewed as multidimensional and indicative of the conflicts between resources, obligations, and aspirations. The historical record in Southeast Asia reveals a population shortage and the risk of losing the minimum supply of labor necessary for a subsistence economy. Traditional local authorities were in need of men for waging war and producing an economic surplus. Colonial administrators imported cheap labor. As mortality declined and population increased, the societal response was migration, usually to frontier areas. New zones of wet rice production were created in lower Burma, central Siam, and Cochin China due to increased demand. Other survival strategies are identified as infinite land subdivision and multiple job holding in the off-season. Densely populated areas appeared to have lower fertility. Over the past 20 years the strategy appears to have been lower fertility coupled with acceptance of family planning, higher female educational attainment, and higher age at marriage. Southeast Asian patterns are considered indicative of the impact of wars, crises, and economic change on

Fertility decline and population growth: China's dilemma.

PubMed

Gu, B

1996-02-01

This article includes the assertion by the deputy director and demographer of the China Information and Research Center that China must maintain and implement a strict population policy in order to feed its large population. China has 22% of the world's total population but only 7% of the world's total cultivated land. The population rate varies by province and region in China and ranges from replacement level fertility in Shanghai to high growth in remote and underdeveloped provinces. About 70 million people live under the poverty line or have an annual family income of under 500 yuan. The family planning programs should emphasize a service oriented approach. The increased power of women and improved educational status of women are also desired. Concern is recognized in government circles about the rapid aging of the population. Rural-urban migration has improved the economic climate in cities, but migration has also resulted in "some serious social problems." China has a low fertility level but rapid population growth. In the 1990s about 21 million babies were born, which is a net increase of about 14 million annually. Population growth is serious because of a strong population momentum from the previous baby boom of the 1960s. China has accomplished a great deal in a short period of time in reducing fertility under unfavorable socioeconomic conditions. Credit must be given to the Chinese government, its various departments, and public response. Present population is over 1.2 billion, which is higher than the total population of developed countries of the world.

Social activity, cognitive decline and dementia risk: a 20-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Marioni, Riccardo E; Proust-Lima, Cecile; Amieva, Helene; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Jacqmin-Gadda, Helene

2015-10-24

Identifying modifiable lifestyle correlates of cognitive decline and risk of dementia is complex, particularly as few population-based longitudinal studies jointly model these interlinked processes. Recent methodological developments allow us to examine statistically defined sub-populations with separate cognitive trajectories and dementia risks. Engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits, social network size, self-perception of feeling well understood, and degree of satisfaction with social relationships were assessed in 2854 participants from the Paquid cohort (mean baseline age 77 years) and related to incident dementia and cognitive change over 20-years of follow-up. Multivariate repeated cognitive information was exploited by defining the global cognitive functioning as the latent common factor underlying the tests. In addition, three latent homogeneous sub-populations of cognitive change and dementia were identified and contrasted according to social environment variables. In the whole population, we found associations between increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits and increased cognitive ability (but not decline) and decreased risk of incident dementia, and between feeling understood and slower cognitive decline. There was evidence for three sub-populations of cognitive aging: fast, medium, and no cognitive decline. The social-environment measures at baseline did not help explain the heterogeneity of cognitive decline and incident dementia diagnosis between these sub-populations. We observed a complex series of relationships between social-environment variables and cognitive decline and dementia. In the whole population, factors such as increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits were related to a decreased risk of dementia. However, in a sub-population analysis, the social-environment variables were not linked to the heterogeneous patterns of cognitive decline and dementia risk that defined

What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, Paul Stephen

1994-01-01

The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the

Population status of Kittlitz's and Marbled Murrelets and surveys for other marine bird and mammal species in the Kenai Fjords area, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Pelt, Thomas I.; Piatt, John F.

2003-01-01

The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare seabird that nests in alpine terrain and generally forages near tidewater glaciers during the breeding season. More than 95% of the global population breeds in Alaska, with the remainder occurring in the Russian Far East. A global population estimate using best-available data in the early 1990s was 20,000 individuals. However, survey data from two core areas (Prince William Sound and Glacier Bay) suggest that populations have declined by 80-90% during the past 10-20 years. In response to these declines, a coalition of environmental groups petitioned the USFWS in May of 2001 to list the Kittlitz’s murrelet under the Endangered Species Act. In 2002, we began a three-year project to examine population status and trend of Kittlitz’s Murrelets in areas where distribution and abundance are poorly known. Here we report on the first field season, focused on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. We re-surveyed selected historical transects to evaluate trends, and surveyed new transects for improved population estimation during early July 2002. From a total of 66 Kittlitz’s Murrelets seen on transects, we estimate a total population of 509 Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. Comparisons with past surveys suggest a decline of 83% since 1976, with an average rate of decline calculated as–6.9 % per annum. This decline is in agreement with population declines observed elsewhere in the species’ core glaciated range, indicating that steep population declines observed to date are likely to be a range-wide phenomenon. While the focus of the study was Kittlitz’s Murrelets, other species of marine birds and mammals were also surveyed. Populations of the closely related Marbled Murrelet appear to have increased during the same time period. The abundance and distribution of other species are presented in appendices.

The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Villavicencio, Francisco

2016-10-01

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the "ready, willing, and able" framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.

Potential causes for amphibian declines in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burrowes, P.A.; Joglar, R.L.; Green, David E.

2004-01-01

We monitored 11 populations of eight species of Eleutherodactylus in Puerto Rico from 1989 through 2001. We determined relative abundance of active frogs along transects established in the Caribbean National Forest (El Yunque), Carite Forest, San Lorenzo, and in the vicinity of San Juan. Three species (Eleutherodactylus karlschmidti, E. jasperi, and E. eneidae) are presumed to be extinct and eight populations of six different species of endemic Eleutherodactylus are significantly declining at elevations above 400 m. Of the many suspected causes of amphibian declines around the world, we focused on climate change and disease. Temperature and precipitation data from 1970a??2000 were analyzed to determine the general pattern of oscillations and deviations that could be correlated with amphibian declines. We examined a total of 106 tissues taken from museum specimens collected from 1961a??1978 and from live frogs in 2000. We found chytrid fungi in two species collected at El Yunque as early as 1976, this is the first report of chytrid fungus in the Caribbean. Analysis of weather data indicates a significant warming trend and an association between years with extended periods of drought and the decline of amphibians in Puerto Rico. The 1970's and 1990's, which represent the periods of amphibian extirpations and declines, were significantly drier than average. We suggest a possible synergistic interaction between drought and the pathological effect of the chytrid fungus on amphibian populations.

Living on the edge: reconstructing the genetic history of the Finnish wolf population

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many western European carnivore populations became almost or completely eradicated during the last ~200 years, but are now recovering. Extirpation of wolves started in Finland in the 19th century, and for more than 150 years the population size of wolves has remained small. To investigate historical patterns of genetic variation, we extracted DNA from 114 wolf samples collected in zoological museums over the last ~150 years. Fifteen microsatellite loci were used to look at genotypic variation in this historical sample. Additionally, we amplified a 430 bp sequence of mtDNA control region from the same samples. Contemporary wolf samples (N = 298) obtained after the population recovery in the mid-1990s, were used as a reference. Results Our analyses of mtDNA revealed reduced variation in the mtDNA control region through the loss of historical haplotypes observed prior to wolf declines. Heterozygosity at autosomal microsatellite loci did not decrease significantly. However, almost 20% of microsatellite alleles were unique to wolves collected before the 1960s. The genetic composition of the population changed gradually with the largest changes occurring prior to 1920. Half of the oldest historical samples formed a distinguishable genetic cluster not detected in the modern-day Finnish or Russian samples, and might therefore represent northern genetic variation lost from today’s gene pool. Point estimates of Ne were small (13.2 and 20.5) suggesting population fragmentation. Evidence of a genetic population bottleneck was also detected. Conclusions Our genetic analyses confirm changes in the genetic composition of the Finnish wolf population through time, despite the geographic interconnectivity to a much larger population in Russia. Our results emphasize the need for restoration of the historical connectivity between the present wolf populations to secure long-term viability. This might be challenging, however, because the management policies between

Assessment of blood lead level declines in an area of historical mining with a holistic remediation and abatement program.

PubMed

Schoof, Rosalind A; Johnson, Dina L; Handziuk, Emma R; Landingham, Cynthia Van; Feldpausch, Alma M; Gallagher, Alexa E; Dell, Linda D; Kephart, Amy

2016-10-01

Lead exposure and blood lead levels (BLLs) in the United States have declined dramatically since the 1970s as many widespread lead uses have been discontinued. Large scale mining and mineral processing represents an additional localized source of potential lead exposure in many historical mining communities, such as Butte, Montana. After 25 years of ongoing remediation efforts and a residential metals abatement program that includes blood lead monitoring of Butte children, examination of blood lead trends offers a unique opportunity to assess the effectiveness of Butte's lead source and exposure reduction measures. This study examined BLL trends in Butte children ages 1-5 (n= 2796) from 2003-2010 as compared to a reference dataset matched for similar demographic characteristics over the same period. Blood lead differences across Butte during the same period are also examined. Findings are interpreted with respect to effectiveness of remediation and other factors potentially contributing to ongoing exposure concerns. BLLs from Butte were compared with a reference dataset (n=2937) derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The reference dataset was initially matched for child age and sample dates. Additional demographic factors associated with higher BLLs were then evaluated. Weights were applied to make the reference dataset more consistent with the Butte dataset for the three factors that were most disparate (poverty-to-income ratio, house age, and race/ethnicity). A weighted linear mixed regression model showed Butte geometric mean BLLs were higher than reference BLLs for 2003-2004 (3.48vs. 2.05µg/dL), 2005-2006 (2.65vs. 1.80µg/dL), and 2007-2008 (2.2vs. 1.72µg/dL), but comparable for 2009-2010 (1.53vs. 1.51µg/dL). This trend suggests that, over time, the impact of other factors that may be associated with Butte BLLs has been reduced. Neighborhood differences were examined by dividing the Butte dataset into the older area called "Uptown

Effects of invasive parasites on bumble bee declines.

PubMed

Meeus, Ivan; Brown, Mark J F; De Graaf, Dirk C; Smagghe, Guy

2011-08-01

Bumble bees are a group of pollinators that are both ecologically and economically important and declining worldwide. Numerous mechanisms could be behind this decline, and the spread of parasites from commercial colonies into wild populations has been implicated recently in North America. Commercial breeding may lead to declines because commercial colonies may have high parasite loads, which can lead to colonization of native bumble bee populations; commercial rearing may allow higher parasite virulence to evolve; and global movement of commercial colonies may disrupt spatial patterns in local adaptation between hosts and parasites. We assessed parasite virulence, transmission mode, and infectivity. Microparasites and so-called honey bee viruses may pose the greatest threat to native bumble bee populations because certain risk factors are present; for example, the probability of horizontal transmission of the trypanosome parasite Crithidia bombi is high. The microsporidian parasite Nosema bombi may play a role in declines of bumble bees in the United States. Preliminary indications that C. bombi and the neogregarine Apicystis bombi may not be native in parts of South America. We suggest that the development of molecular screening protocols, thorough sanitation efforts, and cooperation among nongovernmental organizations, governments, and commercial breeders might immediately mitigate these threats. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

An Evidence-Based Construction of the Models of Decline of Functioning. Part 1: Two Major Models of Decline of Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okawa, Yayoi; Nakamura, Shigemi; Kudo, Minako; Ueda, Satoshi

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study is to confirm the working hypothesis on two major models of functioning decline and two corresponding models of rehabilitation program in an older population through detailed interviews with the persons who have functioning declines and on-the-spot observations of key activities on home visits. A total of 542…

The economic impact of prospective population changes in advanced industrial countries: an historical perspective.

PubMed

Easterlin, R A

1991-11-01

Demographic projections to the year 2050 for advanced industrial nations, implying low or negative population growth and a sharp rise in old age dependency, have created concerns about the long-term economic outlook in these countries. An analysis of these projections in the light of the demographic and economic experience of the past century raises doubt about these concerns. There is little empirical evidence that declining population growth has slowed the rate of economic growth. Although the burden of aged dependents will reach a new high, the projected total dependency rate is not out of line with prior experience. Thus, the ability of the working population to shoulder the burden of higher taxes to support programs for older dependents will be greater because of reduced needs to support younger dependents. This conclusion holds for a number of variant projections, the only clear exception being one that implies a mortality revolution at older ages.

Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

PubMed

Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

2015-10-05

Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend p<0.0001). At the same time, planned deliveries increased: prelabour caesarean section by 43% (12.9-18.4%) and labour inductions by 10% (24.8-27.2%). Many maternal risk factors for pregnancy hypertension significantly increased (p<0.01) over the study period including nulliparity, age ≥35 years, diabetes, overweight and obesity, and use of assisted reproductive technologies; some risk factors decreased including multifetal pregnancies, age <20 years, autoimmune diseases and previous pregnancy hypertension. Given these changes in risk factors, the pregnancy hypertension rate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery

Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

PubMed

Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

2008-09-01

Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed.

Genetic structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes region and the effects of supplementation on genetic integrity of wild populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnquist, Keith N.; Larson, Wesley; Farrell, John M.; Hanchin, P.A.; Kapuscinski, Kevin L.; Miller, Loren M.; Scribner, Kim T.; Wilson, Chris C.; Sloss, Brian L.

2017-01-01

Muskellunge (Esox masquinongy) are important apex predators that support numerous recreational fisheries throughout the Great Lakes region. Declines in muskellunge abundance from historical overharvest and environmental degradation have threatened the viability of many populations and prompted significant restoration efforts that often include stocking. The goal of our study was to investigate contemporary population structure and genetic diversity in 42 populations of muskellunge sampled across the Great Lakes region to inform future management and supplementation practices. We genotyped 1896 muskellunge (N = 10–123/population) at 13 microsatellite loci. The greatest genetic variation was between populations of Great Lakes origin and populations of Northern (inland) origin, with both groups also exhibiting significant substructure (overall FST = 0.23). Genetic structure was generally correlated with geography; however, we only found marginal evidence of isolation by distance, likely due to high genetic differentiation among proximate populations. Measures of genetic diversity were moderate across most populations, but some populations displayed low diversity consistent with small population sizes or historical bottlenecks. Many of the populations studied displayed evidence of historic introductions and supplemental stocking, including the presence of individuals with primarily non-native ancestry as well as interlineage hybrids. Our results suggest that the historic population structure of muskellunge is largely intact across the Great Lakes region, but also that stocking practices have altered this structure to some degree. We suggest that future supplementation practices use local sources where possible, and incorporate genetic tools including broodstock screening to ensure that non-native muskellunge are not used to supplement wild populations.

Population biology of sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Dougl.) with reference to historical disturbances in the Lake Tahoe Basin: implications for restoration

Treesearch

Patricia E. Maloney; Detlev R. Vogler; Andrew J. Eckert; Camille E. Jensen; David B. Neale

2011-01-01

Historical logging, fire suppression, and an invasive pathogen, Cronartium ribicola, the cause of white pine blister rust (WPBR), are assumed to have dramatically affected sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana) populations in the Lake Tahoe Basin. We examined population- and genetic-level consequences of these disturbances within 10...

Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

2002-07-01

Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout themore » basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices

Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

2003-09-01

Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes broughtmore » about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates

Detecting warning signs of trouble within population fluctuations: using capture-recapture modeling to uncover changes in population dynamics leading to declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.; Hatfield, J.S.; Nisbet, I.C.T.

2004-01-01

An intensive mark-recapture/resighting program has been carried out on the Roseate Terns nesting at Falkner Island, Connecticut, since the late 1980s as part of a regional study of the metapopulation dynamics and ecology of the endangered Northwest Atlantic breeding population of this species. Substantial losses of tern eggs and chicks to predation at this colony site began in 1996 when at least five Black-crowned Night-Herons started nocturnal raids. This depredation has been a major factor in the reduction of productivity from an average of about 1.0 chicks/pair for the 10 years before night-heron predation began to as low as about 0.2 chicks/pair in 2002. Recent capture-recapture modelling analyses have detected other important impacts on the population dynamics of the Roseate Terns at this site including a reduction by about half in the 'development-of-residency' rates of first-time breeders, and a substantial decline in the local 'survival-and-fidelity' rates of experienced breeders believed due mostly to increased immigration rates to other colony sites.

Investigating the historic long-term population health impact of the US National School Lunch Program.

PubMed

Peterson, Cora

2014-12-01

The present research aimed to compare historic participation in the US National School Lunch Program (NSLP) during childhood and subsequent prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults at the population level. Regression models examined cross-sectional, state- and age-based panel data constructed from multiple sources, including the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System, US Congressional Record, US Census and the US Department of Agriculture. Models controlled for cohorts' racial/ethnic composition and state poverty rates. Adult-age cohorts (18-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 18-64 years) by US state over a 25-year period (1984-2008). The cohorts' prevalence of overweight and obesity was compared with the cohorts' estimated NSLP participation during schooling (1925-2007; the NSLP began in 1946). Among adults aged 18-64 years, a one percentage-point increase in estimated NSLP participation during schooling between 1925 and 2007 was significantly associated with a 0·29 percentage-point increase in the cohort's later prevalence of overweight and obesity. Analysis of narrower age cohorts and different schooling periods produced mixed results. The NSLP might have influenced population health historically. Longitudinal analysis of individuals from studies now underway will likely facilitate more robust conclusions about the NSLP's long-term health impact based on more recent experiences.

Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

2014-12-01

Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

How Personal Is the Political? Democratic Revolution and Fertility Decline

PubMed Central

Bailey, Amy Kate

2010-01-01

Existing theory has identified the capacity of political revolutions to effect change in a variety of social institutions, although relationships between revolution and many institutions remain unexplored. Using historical data from 22 European and four diaspora countries, I examine the temporal relationship between timing of revolution and onset of fertility decline. I hypothesize that specific kinds of revolutionary events affect fertility by engendering ideological changes in popular understandings of the individual’s relationship to society, and ultimately the legitimacy of couples’ authority over their reproductive capacities. Results demonstrate that popular democratic revolution – but not institutionalized democratic structures – predict the timing of the onset of fertility decline. PMID:19999826

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial–modern China

PubMed Central

Turvey, Samuel T.; Crees, Jennifer J.; Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.

2015-01-01

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. PMID:26246553

Demographic consequences of invasion by a native, controphic competitor to an insular bird population.

PubMed

Johnson, K M; Germain, R R; Tarwater, C E; Reid, J M; Arcese, P

2018-05-01

Species invasions and range shifts can lead to novel competitive interactions between historically resident and colonizing species, but the demographic consequences of such interactions remain controversial. We present results from field experiments and 45 years of demographic monitoring to test the hypothesis that the colonization of Mandarte Is., BC, Canada, by fox sparrows (Passerella iliaca) caused the long-term decline of the resident population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia). Several lines of evidence indicate that competition with fox sparrows for winter food reduced over-winter survival in juvenile song sparrows by 48% from 1960 to 2015, enforcing population decline despite an increase in annual reproductive rate in song sparrows over the same period. Preference for locally abundant seeds presented at experimental arenas suggested complete overlap in diet in song and fox sparrows, and observations at arenas baited with commercial seed showed that fox sparrows displaced song sparrows in 91-100% of interactions in two periods during winter. In contrast, we found no evidence of interspecific competition for resources during the breeding season. Our results indicate that in the absence of marked shifts in niche dimension, range expansions by dominant competitors have the potential to cause the extirpation of historically resident species when competitive interactions between them are strong and resources not equitably partitioned.

The disappearing northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens): conservation genetics and implications for remnant populations in western Nevada

PubMed Central

Rogers, Serena D; Peacock, Mary M

2012-01-01

Global amphibian declines suggest a major shift in the amount and quality of habitat for these sensitive taxa. Many species that were once widespread are now experiencing declines either in part of or across their historic range. The northern leopard frog (Rana [Lithobates] pipiens] has undergone significant declines particularly in the western United States and Canada. Leopard frog population losses in Nevada are largely due to habitat fragmentation and the introduction of nonnative fish, amphibian, and plant species. Only two populations remain in the Truckee and Carson River watersheds of western Nevada which represents the western boundary of this species range. We used sequence data for an 812 base pair fragment of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase 1 (ND1) gene to support a native origin for western Nevada populations. All frogs had a single haplotype (W07) from the distinct western North America ND1 haplotype clade. Data from seven polymorphic microsatellite loci show that Truckee and Carson River populations are highly differentiated from each other and from leopard frogs collected from eastern Nevada sites. Lack of gene flow among and distinct color morphs among the western Nevada populations likely predates the current geographical isolation. Comparisons with other peripheral L. pipiens populations show western Nevada populations have similar levels of gene diversity despite their contemporary isolation (HE 0.411, 0.482). Restoration of leopard frog populations in these watersheds will be challenging given well-entrenched nonnative bullfrog populations and major changes to the riparian zone over the past century. Declines of once common amphibian species has become a major conservation concern. Contemporary isolation of populations on a species range periphery such as the leopard frog populations in the Truckee and Carson rivers further exacerbate extirpation risk as these populations are likely to have fewer genetic resources to adaptively respond to

Frog decline, frog malformations, and a comparison of frog and human health.

PubMed

Cohen, M M

2001-11-22

The decline in frog populations and the increase in the frequency of frog malformations are discussed. Topics considered for analysis include chytridiomycosis, retinoids, UV-B radiation, chemical contaminants, environmental threats, introduced invasive species and predation, unsustainable use, and enigmatic decline. Care must be taken to distinguish between hypotheses, laboratory experiments, and the findings in feral frog populations. Clearly, the causes of population decline and malformations are heterogeneous. The subject of frogs and humans is addressed under three subheadings: the importance of frogs to human societies, medical implications of frog studies, and a comparison of frog and human disease factors. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Historical versus Contemporary Climate Forcing on the Annual Nesting Variability of Loggerhead Sea Turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

PubMed Central

Arendt, Michael D.; Schwenter, Jeffrey A.; Witherington, Blair E.; Meylan, Anne B.; Saba, Vincent S.

2013-01-01

A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998–2007 was not projected for 2029–2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998–2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response. PMID

Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Arendt, Michael D; Schwenter, Jeffrey A; Witherington, Blair E; Meylan, Anne B; Saba, Vincent S

2013-01-01

A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

Waning population immunity prior to a large Q fever epidemic in the south of The Netherlands.

PubMed

Brandwagt, D A H; Herremans, T; Schneeberger, P M; Hackert, V H; Hoebe, C J P A; Paget, J; VAN DER Hoek, W

2016-10-01

Historical survey data suggest that the seroprevalence of antibodies against Coxiella burnetii in the general population of The Netherlands decreased from more than 40% in 1983 to 2·4% in 2007, just before the start of the large 2007-2010 Q fever epidemic. To assess whether the sharp decline in seroprevalence was real, we performed a cross-sectional study using historical samples. We tested samples using a contemporary commercial indirect immunofluorescence assay. In plasma samples from the south of The Netherlands from 1987, we found an age- and sex-standardized seroprevalence of 14·4% (95% confidence interval 11·2-18·3). This was significantly lower than a 1983 estimate from the same area (62·5%), but significantly higher than 2008 (1·0%) and 2010 (2·3%) estimates from the same area. The study suggests that there was a steady and sharp decline in Q fever seroprevalence in the south of The Netherlands from 1987 to 2008. We assume that seroprevalence has decreased in other parts of The Netherlands as well and seroprevalence surveys in other European countries have shown a similar declining trend. Waning population immunity in The Netherlands may have contributed to the scale of the 2007-2010 Q fever epidemic. For a better understanding of the infection dynamics of Q fever, we advocate an international comparative study of the seroprevalence of C. burnetii.

Combining phylogenetic and demographic inferences to assess the origin of the genetic diversity in an isolated wolf population

PubMed Central

Fabbri, Elena; Ahmed, Atidje; Bolfíková, Barbora Černá; Czarnomska, Sylwia D.; Galov, Ana; Godinho, Raquel; Hindrikson, Maris; Hulva, Pavel; Jędrzejewska, Bogumiła; Jelenčič, Maja; Kutal, Miroslav; Saarma, Urmas; Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Randi, Ettore

2017-01-01

The survival of isolated small populations is threatened by both demographic and genetic factors. Large carnivores declined for centuries in most of Europe due to habitat changes, overhunting of their natural prey and direct persecution. However, the current rewilding trends are driving many carnivore populations to expand again, possibly reverting the erosion of their genetic diversity. In this study we reassessed the extent and origin of the genetic variation of the Italian wolf population, which is expanding after centuries of decline and isolation. We genotyped wolves from Italy and other nine populations at four mtDNA regions (control-region, ATP6, COIII and ND4) and 39 autosomal microsatellites. Results of phylogenetic analyses and assignment procedures confirmed in the Italian wolves a second private mtDNA haplotype, which belongs to a haplogroup distributed mostly in southern Europe. Coalescent analyses showed that the unique mtDNA haplotypes in the Italian wolves likely originated during the late Pleistocene. ABC simulations concordantly showed that the extant wolf populations in Italy and in south-western Europe started to be isolated and declined right after the last glacial maximum. Thus, the standing genetic variation in the Italian wolves principally results from the historical isolation south of the Alps. PMID:28489863

Is human fecundity declining in Western countries?

PubMed

te Velde, Egbert; Burdorf, Alex; Nieschlag, Eberhard; Eijkemans, René; Kremer, Jan A M; Roeleveld, Nel; Habbema, Dik

2010-06-01

Since Carlsen and co-workers reported in 1992 that sperm counts have decreased during the second half of the last century in Western societies, there has been widespread anxiety about the adverse effects of environmental pollutants on human fecundity. The Carlsen report was followed by several re-analyses of their data set and by many studies on time trends in sperm quality and on secular trends in fecundity. However, the results of these studies were diverse, complex, difficult to interpret and, therefore, less straightforward than the Carlsen report suggested. The claims that population fecundity is declining and that environmental pollutants are involved, can neither be confirmed nor rejected, in our opinion. However, it is of great importance to find out because the possible influence of widespread environmental pollution, which would adversely affect human reproduction, should be a matter of great concern triggering large-scale studies into its causes and possibilities for prevention. The fundamental reason we still do not know whether population fecundity is declining is the lack of an appropriate surveillance system. Is such a system possible? In our opinion, determining total sperm counts (as a measure of male reproductive health) in combination with time to pregnancy (as a measure of couple fecundity) in carefully selected populations is a feasible option for such a monitoring system. If we want to find out whether or not population fecundity will be declining within the following 20-30 years, we must start monitoring now.

Kinship and the decline of fertility.

PubMed

Zhou, Y

1996-01-01

China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

Origin and Decline of the First University Radio Web in France

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giorgi, Sebastián Mariano

2017-01-01

"Résonances" was the first university radio web in France. It was founded at the University of Limoges, in 2010. This article is about the origin and decline of this transmedia project. Two strategies are here unfolded: historical the first one, ranging from the conception of the idea, the vicissitudes experienced by the team for…

Historical spatial reconstruction of a spawning-aggregation fishery.

PubMed

Buckley, Sarah M; Thurstan, Ruth H; Tobin, Andrew; Pandolfi, John M

2017-12-01

Aggregations of individual animals that form for breeding purposes are a critical ecological process for many species, yet these aggregations are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. Studies of the decline of exploited populations that form breeding aggregations tend to focus on catch rate and thus often overlook reductions in geographic range. We tested the hypothesis that catch rate and site occupancy of exploited fish-spawning aggregations (FSAs) decline in synchrony over time. We used the Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) spawning-aggregation fishery in the Great Barrier Reef as a case study. Data were compiled from historical newspaper archives, fisher knowledge, and contemporary fishery logbooks to reconstruct catch rates and exploitation trends from the inception of the fishery. Our fine-scale analysis of catch and effort data spanned 103 years (1911-2013) and revealed a spatial expansion of fishing effort. Effort shifted offshore at a rate of 9.4 nm/decade, and 2.9 newly targeted FSAs were reported/decade. Spatial expansion of effort masked the sequential exploitation, commercial extinction, and loss of 70% of exploited FSAs. After standardizing for improvements in technological innovations, average catch rates declined by 90.5% from 1934 to 2011 (from 119.4 to 11.41 fish/vessel/trip). Mean catch rate of Spanish mackerel and occupancy of exploited mackerel FSAs were not significantly related. Our study revealed a special kind of shifting spatial baseline in which a contraction in exploited FSAs occurred undetected. Knowledge of temporally and spatially explicit information on FSAs can be relevant for the conservation and management of FSA species. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Historic changes in fish assemblage structure in midwestern nonwadeable rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parks, Timothy P.; Quist, Michael C.; Pierce, Clay L.

2014-01-01

Historical change in fish assemblage structure was evaluated in the mainstems of the Des Moines, Iowa, Cedar, Wapsipinicon, and Maquoketa rivers, in Iowa. Fish occurrence data were compared in each river between historical and recent time periods to characterize temporal changes among 126 species distributions and assess spatiotemporal patterns in faunal similarity. A resampling procedure was used to estimate species occurrences in rivers during each assessment period and changes in species occurrence were summarized. Spatiotemporal shifts in species composition were analyzed at the river and river section scale using cluster analysis, pairwise Jaccard's dissimilarities, and analysis of multivariate beta dispersion. The majority of species exhibited either increases or declines in distribution in all rivers with the exception of several “unknown” or inconclusive trends exhibited by species in the Maquoketa River. Cluster analysis identified temporal patterns of similarity among fish assemblages in the Des Moines, Cedar, and Iowa rivers within the historical and recent assessment period indicating a significant change in species composition. Prominent declines of backwater species with phytophilic spawning strategies contributed to assemblage changes occurring across river systems.

Eisenhower National Historic Site visitor transportation and access study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

This study evaluates the current shuttle system and Eisenhower National Historic Site, which is currently the sole access to the site. Visitation at Eisenhower has been declining since the site opened, and the study looks at the impacts of this trend...

Has Thailand's fertility decline stalled?

PubMed

Knodel, J; Chayovan, N; Frisen, C

1988-09-01

Thailand is 1 of the third world countries in which a very substantial fertility decline has occurred during the last 2 decades. However, there has been some recent concern, based on fertility rates derived from 3 national contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted in 1978/1979, 1981, and 1984, that the fertility decline may have lost momentum at a level well above replacement fertility. New evidence now available from a more recent national survey which permits calculation of retrospective fertility trends, in combination with those from registration data, clearly contradicts the suggestion of a fall in the fertility decline. Moreover, because expected family size remains low among women currently starting their reproductive careers and evidence shows that the preferred number of children has fallen more or less steadily, low fertility may be expected to be a feature of the Thai population for some time to come.

Population history, gene flow, and bottlenecks in island populations of a secondary seed disperser, the southern grey shrike (Lanius meridionalis koenigi)

PubMed Central

Padilla, David P; Spurgin, Lewis G; Fairfield, Eleanor A; Illera, Juan Carlos; Richardson, David S

2015-01-01

Studying the population history and demography of organisms with important ecological roles can aid understanding of evolutionary processes at the community level and inform conservation. We screened genetic variation (mtDNA and microsatellite) across the populations of the southern grey shrike (Lanius meridionalis koenigi) in the Canary Islands, where it is an endemic subspecies and an important secondary seed disperser. We show that the Canarian subspecies is polyphyletic with L. meridionalis elegans from North Africa and that shrikes have colonized the Canary Islands from North Africa multiple times. Substantial differences in genetic diversity exist across islands, which are most likely the product of a combination of historical colonization events and recent bottlenecks. The Eastern Canary Islands had the highest overall levels of genetic diversity and have probably been most recently and/or frequently colonized from Africa. Recent or ongoing bottlenecks were detected in three of the islands and are consistent with anecdotal evidence of population declines due to human disturbance. These findings are troubling given the shrike's key ecological role in the Canary Islands, and further research is needed to understand the community-level consequences of declines in shrike populations. Finally, we found moderate genetic differentiation among populations, which largely reflected the shrike's bottleneck history; however, a significant pattern of isolation-by-distance indicated that some gene flow occurs between islands. This study is a useful first step toward understanding how secondary seed dispersal operates over broad spatial scales. PMID:25628862

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

2013-01-01

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.

2014-10-14

In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the USmore » market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.« less

Dramatic declines in neotropical salamander populations are an important part of the global amphibian crisis

PubMed Central

Rovito, Sean M.; Parra-Olea, Gabriela; Vásquez-Almazán, Carlos R.; Papenfuss, Theodore J.; Wake, David B.

2009-01-01

We document major declines of many species of salamanders at several sites in Central America and Mexico, with emphasis on the San Marcos region of Guatemala, one of the best studied and most diverse salamander communities in the Neotropics. Profound declines of several formerly abundant species, including 2 apparent extinctions, are revealed. Terrestrial microhabitat specialists at mid- to high elevations have declined more than microhabitat generalists. These terrestrial microhabitat specialists have largely disappeared from multiple sites in western Guatemala, including in well-protected areas, suggesting that the phenomenon cannot be explained solely by localized habitat destruction. Major declines in southern Mexican plethodontid salamanders occurred in the late 1970s to early 1980s, concurrent with or preceding many reported frog declines. The species in decline comprise several major evolutionary lineages of tropical salamanders, underscoring that significant portions of the phylogenetic diversity of Neotropical salamanders are at risk. Our results highlight the urgent need to document and understand Neotropical salamander declines as part of the larger effort to conserve global amphibian diversity. PMID:19204286

Decline in a population of spectacled eiders nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Dau, Christian; Babcock, Christopher

1994-01-01

The number of spectacled eiders nesting on two study areas near the Kashunuk River, on the central Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, Alaska, declined by over 75% in the last 20 years. Nesting densities have remained low, but have not significantly declined since 1985. There has been no decrease in the reproductive effort of individual females as indicated by average clutch sizes. There has been a significant decline in the proportion of nests located on islands on one of the two study areas. Nesting success declined significantly during the 1970's. Success was not monitored in recent years, but has likely been low, based on the poor nesting success and declining numbers of cackling Canada geese and black brant nesting on the area. Nest predation by arctic foxes severely limited the productivity of cackling Canada geese, and foxes were likely the major predators of eider nests. Persistent high predation rates may lead to local extirpation in highly philopatric species such as eiders.

Is air pollution associated with increased risk of cognitive decline? A systematic review.

PubMed

Peters, Ruth; Peters, Jean; Booth, Andrew; Mudway, Ian

2015-09-01

exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase risk of inflammatory processes and risk of cardiovascular mortality. Such exposure may therefore also be a risk factor for cognitive impairment/dementia. a systematic review of the literature was conducted with databases searched using keywords for air pollution, cognitive decline and dementia. All identified abstracts and potentially relevant articles were double read. For those papers meeting the inclusion criteria, summary tables were prepared and papers quality assessed. from 1,551 abstracts identified, 10 articles were retrieved of which two were rejected. Of the eight remaining six reported prevalent cognitive assessment with historical pollution exposure and two incident cognitive decline, also with historical pollution exposure. In general, an association was reported between exposure and poorer prevalent measures of cognitive function. Data were mixed for incident cognitive decline with one study finding an association and the other not. Reports were limited by a lack of detailed reporting, use of proxy measures of pollution exposure and a lack of clarity regarding cognitive testing methodology and analysis. this systematic review highlights that there is some evidence of a potential association between air pollution and subsequent cognitive decline. Further work is clearly required and longitudinal analysis of ongoing cohort studies or new research would add much needed clarity to this area. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genetic isolation of a now extinct population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus)

PubMed Central

Nichols, Courtney; Herman, Jerry; Gaggiotti, Oscar E; Dobney, Keith M; Parsons, Kim; Hoelzel, A. Rus

2007-01-01

A number of dolphin species, though highly mobile, show genetic structure among parapatric and sometimes sympatric populations. However, little is known about the temporal patterns of population structure for these species. Here, we apply Bayesian inference and data from ancient DNA to assess the structure and dynamics of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the coastal waters of the UK. We show that regional population structure in UK waters is consistent with earlier studies suggesting local habitat dependence for this species in the Mediterranean Sea and North Atlantic. One genetically differentiated UK population went extinct at least 100 years ago and has not been replaced. The data indicate that this was a local extinction, and not a case of historical range shift or contraction. One possible interpretation is a declining metapopulation and conservation need for this species in the UK. PMID:17456457

Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview.

PubMed

Tabah, L

1977-01-01

Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. M.

2015-12-01

The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

PubMed

Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

2009-07-01

Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

Contaminants in eggs of western snowy plovers and California least terns: is there a link to population decline?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hothern, R.L.; Powell, A.N.

2000-01-01

Environmental contaminants may have adverse effects on avian reproduction and may be contributing to declines of avian species nesting along the southern California Coast. Examples of impaired reproduction caused by organochlorine pesticides, PCBs, and elements such as mercury (Hg) and selenium (Se) include delayed ovulation, reduced egg production, defective eggshells, decreased hatchability, embryotoxicosis, aberrant incubation behavior, and mortality of chicks and adults (Heinz 1976; Blus 1982; Ohlendorf et al. 1986).The federal government listed the California least tern (Sterna antillarum browni) as endangered in 1970 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1985). The Pacific Coast population of western snowy plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) was listed as threatened by the federal government in 1993 (Federal Register 1993). Habitat loss and human-related disturbance have been identified as primary causes of the decline of both the primarily insectivorous plover (Powell 1998) and the primarily piscivorous tern, but local food shortages have also limited the terns.Both species breed along the highly urbanized coastline of southern California. A portion of the snowy plover population is present on the breeding grounds yearround, while the remainder winters along the Pacific Coast south into Baja California, Mexico (Stenzel et al. 1994). Least terns winter primarily along the Pacific Coast of Central America (Massey et al. 1992). This study was designed to evaluate the effects that contaminants acquired on the breeding or wintering grounds might be having on reproduction by snowy plovers and least terns.

Declining HIV Prevalence in Parallel With Safer Sex Behaviors in Burkina Faso: Evidence From Surveillance and Population-Based Surveys.

PubMed

Kirakoya-Samadoulougou, Fati; Nagot, Nicolas; Samadoulougou, Sekou; Sokey, Mamadou; Guiré, Abdoulaye; Sombié, Issiaka; Meda, Nicolas

2016-06-20

To investigate trends in HIV prevalence and changes in reported sexual behaviors between 1998 and 2014 in Burkina Faso. We obtained data on HIV prevalence from antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites (N = 9) that were consistently included in surveillance between 1998 and 2014. We also analyzed data on HIV prevalence and reported sex behaviors from 3 population-based surveys from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted in 1998-99, 2003, and 2010. Sex behavior indicators comprised never-married youth who have never had sex; sex with more than 1 partner; sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; condom use at last sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; and sex before age 15. We calculated survey-specific HIV prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used the chi-square test or chi-square test for trend to compare HIV prevalence across survey years and to analyze trends in reported sex behaviors. HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15-49 decreased by 72% in urban areas, from 7.1% in 1998 to 2.0% in 2014, and by 75% in rural areas, from 2.0% in 2003 to 0.5% in 2014. HIV declined most in younger age groups, which is a good reflection of recent incidence, with declines of 55% among 15-19-year-olds, 72% among 20-24-year-olds, 40% among 25-29-year-olds, and 7% among those ≥30 years old (considering urban and rural data combined). Data reported in the DHS corroborated these declines in HIV prevalence: between 2003 and 2010, HIV prevalence dropped significantly-by 89% among girls ages 15-19, from 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2 to 1.6) to 0.1% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.4), and by 78% among young women ages 20-24, from 1.8% (95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0) to 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7). During the same time period, people reported safer sex behaviors. For example, significantly higher percentages of never-married youth reported they had never had sex, lower percentages of sexually active youth reported multiple sex partners, and lower percentages of youth reported

Duplication and population dynamics shape historic patterns of selection and genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex in rodents

PubMed Central

Winternitz, Jamie C; Wares, John P

2013-01-01

Genetic variation at the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) is vitally important for wildlife populations to respond to pathogen threats. As natural populations can fluctuate greatly in size, a key issue concerns how population cycles and bottlenecks that could reduce genetic diversity will influence MHC genes. Using 454 sequencing, we characterized genetic diversity at the DRB Class II locus in montane voles (Microtus montanus), a North American rodent that regularly undergoes high-amplitude fluctuations in population size. We tested for evidence of historic balancing selection, recombination, and gene duplication to identify mechanisms maintaining allelic diversity. Counter to our expectations, we found strong evidence of purifying selection acting on the DRB locus in montane voles. We speculate that the interplay between population fluctuations and gene duplication might be responsible for the weak evidence of historic balancing selection and strong evidence of purifying selection detected. To further explore this idea, we conducted a phylogenetically controlled comparative analysis across 16 rodent species with varying demographic histories and MHC duplication events (based on the maximum number of alleles detected per individual). On the basis of phylogenetic generalized linear model-averaging, we found evidence that the estimated number of duplicated loci was positively related to allelic diversity and, surprisingly, to the strength of purifying selection at the DRB locus. Our analyses also revealed that species that had undergone population bottlenecks had lower allelic richness than stable species. This study highlights the need to consider demographic history and genetic structure alongside patterns of natural selection to understand resulting patterns of genetic variation at the MHC. PMID:23789067

Annotated Draft Genome Assemblies for the Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and the Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata) Reveal Disparate Estimates of Modern Genome Diversity and Historic Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Oldeschulte, David L; Halley, Yvette A; Wilson, Miranda L; Bhattarai, Eric K; Brashear, Wesley; Hill, Joshua; Metz, Richard P; Johnson, Charles D; Rollins, Dale; Peterson, Markus J; Bickhart, Derek M; Decker, Jared E; Sewell, John F; Seabury, Christopher M

2017-09-07

Northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; hereafter bobwhite) and scaled quail ( Callipepla squamata ) populations have suffered precipitous declines across most of their US ranges. Illumina-based first- (v1.0) and second- (v2.0) generation draft genome assemblies for the scaled quail and the bobwhite produced N50 scaffold sizes of 1.035 and 2.042 Mb, thereby producing a 45-fold improvement in contiguity over the existing bobwhite assembly, and ≥90% of the assembled genomes were captured within 1313 and 8990 scaffolds, respectively. The scaled quail assembly (v1.0 = 1.045 Gb) was ∼20% smaller than the bobwhite (v2.0 = 1.254 Gb), which was supported by kmer-based estimates of genome size. Nevertheless, estimates of GC content (41.72%; 42.66%), genome-wide repetitive content (10.40%; 10.43%), and MAKER-predicted protein coding genes (17,131; 17,165) were similar for the scaled quail (v1.0) and bobwhite (v2.0) assemblies, respectively. BUSCO analyses utilizing 3023 single-copy orthologs revealed a high level of assembly completeness for the scaled quail (v1.0; 84.8%) and the bobwhite (v2.0; 82.5%), as verified by comparison with well-established avian genomes. We also detected 273 putative segmental duplications in the scaled quail genome (v1.0), and 711 in the bobwhite genome (v2.0), including some that were shared among both species. Autosomal variant prediction revealed ∼2.48 and 4.17 heterozygous variants per kilobase within the scaled quail (v1.0) and bobwhite (v2.0) genomes, respectively, and estimates of historic effective population size were uniformly higher for the bobwhite across all time points in a coalescent model. However, large-scale declines were predicted for both species beginning ∼15-20 KYA. Copyright © 2017 Oldeschulte et al.

Have historical climate changes affected Gentoo penguin (Pygoscelis papua) populations in Antarctica?

PubMed

Peña M, Fabiola; Poulin, Elie; Dantas, Gisele P M; González-Acuña, Daniel; Petry, Maria Virginia; Vianna, Juliana A

2014-01-01

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has been suffering an increase in its atmospheric temperature during the last 50 years, mainly associated with global warming. This increment of temperature trend associated with changes in sea-ice dynamics has an impact on organisms, affecting their phenology, physiology and distribution range. For instance, rapid demographic changes in Pygoscelis penguins have been reported over the last 50 years in WAP, resulting in population expansion of sub-Antarctic Gentoo penguin (P. papua) and retreat of Antarctic Adelie penguin (P. adeliae). Current global warming has been mainly associated with human activities; however these climate trends are framed in a historical context of climate changes, particularly during the Pleistocene, characterized by an alternation between glacial and interglacial periods. During the last maximal glacial (LGM∼21,000 BP) the ice sheet cover reached its maximum extension on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), causing local extinction of Antarctic taxa, migration to lower latitudes and/or survival in glacial refugia. We studied the HRVI of mtDNA and the nuclear intron βfibint7 of 150 individuals of the WAP to understand the demographic history and population structure of P. papua. We found high genetic diversity, reduced population genetic structure and a signature of population expansion estimated around 13,000 BP, much before the first paleocolony fossil records (∼1,100 BP). Our results suggest that the species may have survived in peri-Antarctic refugia such as South Georgia and North Sandwich islands and recolonized the Antarctic Peninsula and South Shetland Islands after the ice sheet retreat.

Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

PubMed

Maisels, Fiona; Strindberg, Samantha; Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Aba'a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L; Bezangoye, Anicet N; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

2013-01-01

African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

Steep declines in population-level AIDS mortality following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Reniers, Georges; Araya, Tekebash; Davey, Gail; Nagelkerke, Nico; Berhane, Yemane; Coutinho, Roel; Sanders, Eduard J.

2009-01-01

Objectives Assessments of population-level effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Africa are rare. We use data from burial sites to estimate trends in adult AIDS mortality and the mitigating effects of ART in Addis Ababa. ART has been available since 2003, and for free since 2005. Methods To substitute for deficient vital registration, we use surveillance of burials at all cemeteries. We present trends in all-cause mortality, and estimate AIDS mortality (ages 20–64) from lay reports of causes of death. These lay reports are first used as a diagnostic test for the true cause of death. As reference standard we use the cause of death established via verbal autopsy interviews conducted in 2004. The Positive Predictive Value and Sensitivity are subsequently used as anchors to estimate the number of AIDS deaths for the period 2001–2007. Estimates are compared with Spectrum projections. Results Between 2001 and 2005, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 21.9% and 9.3% for men and women, respectively. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 38.2% for men and 42.9% for women. Compared to the expected number in the absence of ART, the reduction in AIDS deaths in 2007 is estimated between 56.8% and 63.3%, depending on the coverage of the burial surveillance. Conclusion Five years into the ART program, adult AIDS mortality has been reduced by more than half. Following the free provision of ART in 2005, the decline accelerated and became more gender balanced. Substantial AIDS mortality, however, persists. PMID:19169138

HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP OF STREAMFLOW FLASHINESS WITH POPULATION DENSITY, IMPERVIOUSNESS, AND PERCENT URBAN LAND COVER IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (1)

EPA Science Inventory

Historical US Census population data was used to estimate population density for 1930-2000 and satellite imagery from circa 1973, 1992, and 2001 was used to estimate the degree of urban development and the percent imperviousness (for 1992 and 2001) for a set of 150 small (< 13...

Field Surveys of Rare Plants on Santa Cruz Island, California, 2003-2006: Historical Records and Current Distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, A. Kathryn; Chess, Katherine A.; Niessen, Ken

2010-01-01

Santa Cruz Island is the largest of the northern Channel Islands located off the coast of California. It is owned and managed as a conservation reserve by The Nature Conservancy and the Channel Islands National Park. The island is home to nine plant taxa listed in 1997 as threatened or endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act, because of declines related to nearly 150 years of ranching on the island. Feral livestock were removed from the island as a major conservation step, which was part of a program completed in early 2007 with the eradication of pigs and turkeys. For the first time in more than a century, the rare plants of Santa Cruz Island have a chance to recover in the wild. This study provides survey information and living plant materials needed for recovery management of the listed taxa. We developed a database containing information about historical collections of the nine taxa and used it to plan a survey strategy. Our objectives were to relocate as many of the previously known populations as possible, with emphasis on documenting sites not visited in several decades, sites that were poorly documented in the historical record, and sites spanning the range of environmental conditions inhabited by the taxa. From 2003 through 2006, we searched for and found 39 populations of the taxa, indicating that nearly 80 percent of the populations known earlier in the 1900s still existed. Most populations are small and isolated, occupying native-dominated habitat patches in a highly fragmented and invaded landscape; they are still at risk of declining through population losses. Most are not expanding beyond the edges of their habitat patches. However, most taxa appeared to have good seed production and a range of size classes in populations, indicating a good capacity for plant recruitment and population growth in these restricted sites. For these taxa, seed collection and outplanting might be a good strategy to increase numbers of populations for species

Declining estimates of infertility in the United States: 1982-2002.

PubMed

Stephen, Elizabeth Hervey; Chandra, Anjani

2006-09-01

To determine if the decline in infertility has been uniform across subgroups. Periodic data from the National Fertility Survey and the National Survey of Family Growth were used to determine which factors contributed to the decline in 12-month infertility in the United States. National Survey of Family Growth, a periodic US nationally representative study. A nationally representative sample of married women aged 15-44 years, N = 15,303 for pooled data across 4 survey years. None. Estimates of infertility prevalence among married women aged 15-44 years. The decline in 12-month infertility in the United States from 8.5% in 1982 and 7.4% in 2002 was significant. This decline was evident in nearly all subgroups of married women. In the multivariate analysis, 12-month infertility was more likely among women who were older and nulliparous, were non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, and did not have a college degree. The decline in 12-month infertility was observed even after controlling for the compositional differences of the population over time. Among married women in the United States, there has been a significant decline in 12-month infertility, which cannot be explained by changes in the composition of the population from 1982-2002.

Workers who decline employment-related health insurance.

PubMed

Bernard, Didem M; Selden, Thomas M

2006-05-01

Families of workers who decline coverage represent a substantial share of the uninsured and publicly-insured population in the United States. We examined health status, access to health care, utilization, and expenditures among families that declined health insurance coverage offered by employers using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for 2001 and 2002. We found differences in insurance status for adults and children among families with offers. We found that among low-income families with offers, children are less likely to have private insurance compared with adults. However, the majority of children who decline private insurance end up with public coverage, whereas most of adults who decline offers remain uninsured. Decliners are more likely to report poor health, yet they are also less likely to have high cost medical conditions. Families declining coverage have weaker preferences for insurance than families that take up. Although access to care is lower among the decliners who remain uninsured, decliners with public insurance have similar access to care as those with private insurance. Families turning down coverage are more likely to face high expenditure burdens as a percentage of income and more likely to have financial barriers to care. Families who decline coverage rely heavily on the safety net. Public sources and uncompensated care account for 72% of total expenditures among adults who decline coverage. Our results suggest that policy initiatives aimed at increasing take up among workers need to take into account the incentives workers face given the availability of care through public sources and uncompensated care.

AIRBORNE PESTICIDES AND POPULATION DECLINES OF A CALIFORNIA ALPINE FROG

EPA Science Inventory

The mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) has disappeared from most of its historic localities in the Sierra Nevada of California, and airborne pesticides from the Central Valley have been implicated as a causal agent. To determine the distribution and temporal variation of ...

Rapid ongoing decline of Baird's tapir in Cusuco National Park, Honduras.

PubMed

McCANN, Niall P; Wheeler, Phil M; Coles, Tim; Bruford, Michael W

2012-12-01

During the International Tapir Symposium 16-21 Oct 2011, the conservation of Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) in Honduras received a boost with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Minister Director of the Honduran Institute of Conservation and Forestry (ICF) and the Tapir Specialist Group (TSG). Despite this agreement, accelerating levels of hunting and habitat loss continue to pose a threat to Baird's tapir in Honduras. An ongoing study in Cusuco National Park in northwestern Honduras has been monitoring changes in population dynamics of Baird's tapir since 2006 through the collection of occupancy data. The study has identified an increase in hunting pressure, coinciding with a drastic decline in the encounter rate with Baird's tapir spoor. Here, we examine the significance of a range of demographic variables on Baird's tapir occupancy in Cusuco National Park using the software PRESENCE, and simulate the effects of different management strategies on the future dynamics of the population using the stochastic simulation software VORTEX. The predictions of the theoretical population models are compared to observed changes in occupancy levels. We found that non-intervention resulted in the local extinction of Baird's tapir within a very short time frame, but that various intervention models enabled the population to recover to near carrying capacity. Occupancy and extinction probability were shown to respond markedly to the increase in hunting pressure; and occupancy models supported the future population predictions generated by VORTEX. Our study suggests that immediate intervention is required to reduce hunting pressure to near historical levels to prevent the imminent local extinction of the species. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

The Decline of Play and the Rise of Psychopathology in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Peter

2011-01-01

Over the past half century, in the United States and other developed nations, children's free play with other children has declined sharply. Over the same period, anxiety, depression, suicide, feelings of helplessness, and narcissism have increased sharply in children, adolescents, and young adults. This article documents these historical changes…

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial-modern China.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Crees, Jennifer J; Di Fonzo, Martina M I

2015-08-22

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. © 2015 The Authors.

Comparative Population Genomics Analysis of the Mammalian Fungal Pathogen Pneumocystis

PubMed Central

Ma, Liang; Wei Huang, Da; Khil, Pavel P.; Dekker, John P.; Kutty, Geetha; Bishop, Lisa; Liu, Yueqin; Deng, Xilong; Pagni, Marco; Hirsch, Vanessa; Lempicki, Richard A.

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Pneumocystis species are opportunistic mammalian pathogens that cause severe pneumonia in immunocompromised individuals. These fungi are highly host specific and uncultivable in vitro. Human Pneumocystis infections present major challenges because of a limited therapeutic arsenal and the rise of drug resistance. To investigate the diversity and demographic history of natural populations of Pneumocystis infecting humans, rats, and mice, we performed whole-genome and large-scale multilocus sequencing of infected tissues collected in various geographic locations. Here, we detected reduced levels of recombination and variations in historical demography, which shape the global population structures. We report estimates of evolutionary rates, levels of genetic diversity, and population sizes. Molecular clock estimates indicate that Pneumocystis species diverged before their hosts, while the asynchronous timing of population declines suggests host shifts. Our results have uncovered complex patterns of genetic variation influenced by multiple factors that shaped the adaptation of Pneumocystis populations during their spread across mammals. PMID:29739910

Deforestation contributed to droughts that influenced Maya decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-12-01

New studies show that deforestation throughout much of southern Mexico in pre-Columbian times contributed to droughts that led to the decline of the Maya and Aztec civilizations. Significant droughts are known to have affected these civilizations between about 800 and 950 C.E.; it has been debated whether solar forcing, random natural variability, or clearing of rain forests to create pasture or farmlands primarily caused these droughts. Reconstructions of past land cover can be made based on population estimates. Central America was significantly deforested by Maya and Aztec societies before Europeans arrived about 1500 C.E. Forest then recovered as native populations declined, although more deforestation has been taking place in recent years.

Historical human exposure to perfluoroalkyl acids in the United States and Australia reconstructed from biomonitoring data using population-based pharmacokinetic modelling.

PubMed

Gomis, Melissa I; Vestergren, Robin; MacLeod, Matthew; Mueller, Jochen F; Cousins, Ian T

2017-11-01

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) are found in the blood of humans and wildlife worldwide. Since the beginning of the 21st century, a downward trend in the human body burden, especially for PFOS and PFOA, has been observed while there is no clear temporal trend in wildlife. The inconsistency between the concentration decline in human serum and in wildlife could be indicative of a historical exposure pathway for humans linked to consumer products that has been reduced or eliminated. In this study, we reconstruct the past human exposure trends in two different regions, USA and Australia, by inferring the historical intake from cross-sectional biomonitoring data of PFOS, PFOA and PFHxS using a population-based pharmacokinetic model. For PFOS in the USA, the reconstructed daily intake peaked at 4.5ng/kg-bw/day between 1988 and 1999 while in Australia it peaked at 4.0ng/kg-bw/day between 1984 and 1996. For PFOA in the USA and Australia, the peak reconstructed daily intake was 1.1ng/kg-bw/day in 1995 and 3.6ng/kg-bw/day in 1992, respectively, and started to decline in 2000 and 1995, respectively. The model could not be satisfactorily fitted to the biomonitoring data for PFHxS within reasonable boundaries for its intrinsic elimination half-life, and thus reconstructing intakes of PFHxS was not possible. Our results indicate that humans experienced similar exposure levels and trends to PFOS and PFOA in the USA and Australia. Our findings support the hypothesis that near-field consumer product exposure pathways were likely dominant prior to the phase-out in industrialized countries. The intrinsic elimination half-life, which represents elimination processes that are common for all humans, and elimination processes unique to women (i.e., menstruation, cord-blood transfer and breastfeeding) were also investigated. The intrinsic elimination half-lives for PFOS and PFOA derived from model fitting for men

Impact of historical founder effects and a recent bottleneck on MHC variability in Commander Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus)

PubMed Central

Ploshnitsa, Anna I; Goltsman, Mikhail E; Macdonald, David W; Kennedy, Lorna J; Sommer, Simone

2012-01-01

Populations of Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) have been isolated on two of the Commander Islands (Bering and Mednyi) from the circumpolar distributed mainland population since the Pleistocene. In 1970–1980, an epizootic outbreak of mange caused a severe population decline on Mednyi Island. Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) play a primary role in infectious disease resistance. The main objectives of our study were to compare contemporary variation of MHC class II in mainland and island Arctic foxes, and to document the effects of the isolation and the recent bottleneck on MHC polymorphism by analyzing samples from historical and contemporary Arctic foxes. In 184 individuals, we found 25 unique MHC class II DRB and DQB alleles, and identified evidence of balancing selection maintaining allelic lineages over time at both loci. Twenty different MHC alleles were observed in mainland foxes and eight in Bering Island foxes. The historical Mednyi population contained five alleles and all contemporary individuals were monomorphic at both DRB and DQB. Our data indicate that despite positive and diversifying selection leading to elevated rates of amino acid replacement in functionally important antigen-binding sites, below a certain population size, balancing selection may not be strong enough to maintain genetic diversity in functionally important genes. This may have important fitness consequences and might explain the high pathogen susceptibility in some island populations. This is the first study that compares MHC diversity before and after a bottleneck in a wild canid population using DNA from museum samples. PMID:22408734

Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Sam M.; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A.; Knight, Mike H.; Smit, Izak P. J.; Pienaar, Danie

2015-01-01

The onslaught on the World’s rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly’s estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas. PMID:26121681

A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

PubMed

Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

2008-07-01

Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species

Hydroperiod and cattle use associated with lower recruitment in an r-selected amphibian with a declining population trend in the Klamath Mountains, California

Treesearch

Esther M. Cole; Rosemary Hartman; Malcolm P. North

2016-01-01

Recent population declines in amphibians associated with mortality in early life stages highlight the need for a better understanding of the environmental factors related to successful survival to metamorphosis. In our study, we closely examine the relative importance of environmental factors to three stages of recruitment for Cascade frogs (Rana cascadae...

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications

PubMed Central

Mensah, George A.; Wei, Gina S.; Sorlie, Paul D.; Fine, Lawrence J.; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G.; Mussolino, Michael E.; Hsu, Lucy L.; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M.; Gordon, David

2016-01-01

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke has been the success story of the century’s last 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in CHD and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the U.S. population aged. However, in 1978 the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) concluded that a significant recent downtick in CHD and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the U.S. Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from CHD and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one-third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The NHLBI, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference in order to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. PMID:28104770

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

PubMed

Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

2017-01-20

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

2008-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

Trouble in the aquatic world: How wildlife professionals are battling amphibian declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Deanna H.; Chestnut, Tara E.

2014-01-01

A parasitic fungus, similar to the one that caused the extinction of numerous tropical frog and toad species, is killing salamanders in Europe. Scientists first identified the fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, in 2013 as the culprit behind the death of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands (Martel et al. 2013) and are now exploring its potential impact to other species. Although the fungus, which kills the amphibians by infecting their skin, has not yet spread to the United States, researchers believe it’s only a matter of time before it does and, when that happens, the impact on salamander populations could be devastating (Martel et al. 2014).Reports of worldwide declines of amphibians began a quarter of a century ago (Blaustein & Wake 1990). Globally, some amphibian population declines occurred in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and declining trends continued in North America (Houlahan et al. 2000). In the earlier years, population declines were attributed primarily to overharvest due to unregulated supply of species such as the northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) for educational use (Dodd 2013). In later years, however, causes of declines were less evident. In 1989, herpetologists at the First World Congress of Herpetology traded alarming stories of losses across continents and in seemingly protected landscapes, making it clear that amphibian population declines were a “global phenomenon.” In response to these reports, in 1991, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) established the Declining Amphibian Populations Task Force to better understand the scale and scope of global amphibian declines. Unfortunately, the absence of long-term monitoring data and targeted studies made it difficult for the task force to compile information.Today, according to AmphibiaWeb.org, there are 7,342 amphibian species in the world — double the number since the first alerts of declines — making the situation