Genetic patterns of habitat fragmentation and past climate-change effects in the Mediterranean high-mountain plant Armeria caespitosa (Plumbaginaceae).

PubMed

García-Fernández, Alfredo; Iriondo, Jose M; Escudero, Adrián; Aguilar, Javier Fuertes; Feliner, Gonzalo Nieto

2013-08-01

Mountain plants are among the species most vulnerable to global warming, because of their isolation, narrow geographic distribution, and limited geographic range shifts. Stochastic and selective processes can act on the genome, modulating genetic structure and diversity. Fragmentation and historical processes also have a great influence on current genetic patterns, but the spatial and temporal contexts of these processes are poorly known. We aimed to evaluate the microevolutionary processes that may have taken place in Mediterranean high-mountain plants in response to changing historical environmental conditions. Genetic structure, diversity, and loci under selection were analyzed using AFLP markers in 17 populations distributed over the whole geographic range of Armeria caespitosa, an endemic plant that inhabits isolated mountains (Sierra de Guadarrama, Spain). Differences in altitude, geographic location, and climate conditions were considered in the analyses, because they may play an important role in selective and stochastic processes. Bayesian clustering approaches identified nine genetic groups, although some discrepancies in assignment were found between alternative analyses. Spatially explicit analyses showed a weak relationship between genetic parameters and spatial or environmental distances. However, a large proportion of outlier loci were detected, and some outliers were related to environmental variables. A. caespitosa populations exhibit spatial patterns of genetic structure that cannot be explained by the isolation-by-distance model. Shifts along the altitude gradient in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations and environmentally mediated selective forces might explain the resulting structure and genetic diversity values found.

Landslide susceptibility revealed by LIDAR imagery and historical records, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schulz, W.H.

2007-01-01

Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data were used to visually map landslides, headscarps, and denuded slopes in Seattle, Washington. Four times more landslides were mapped than by previous efforts that used aerial photographs. The mapped landforms (landslides, headscarps, and denuded slopes) were created by many individual landslides. The spatial distribution of mapped landforms and 1308 historical landslides show that historical landslide activity has been concentrated on the mapped landforms, and that most of the landslide activity that created the landforms was prehistoric. Thus, the spatial densities of historical landslides on the landforms provide approximations of the landforms' relative susceptibilities to future landsliding. Historical landslide characteristics appear to be closely related to landform type so relative susceptibilities were determined for landslides with various characteristics. No strong relations were identified between stratigraphy and landslide occurrence; however, landslide characteristics and slope morphology appear to be related to stratigraphic conditions. Human activity is responsible for causing about 80% of historical Seattle landslides. The distribution of mapped landforms and human-caused landslides suggests the probable characteristics of future human-caused landslides on each of the landforms. The distribution of mapped landforms and historical landslides suggests that erosion of slope-toes by surface water has been a necessary condition for causing Seattle landslides. Human activity has largely arrested this erosion, which implies that landslide activity will decrease with time as hillsides naturally stabilize. However, evaluation of glacial-age analogs of areas of recent slope-toe erosion suggests that landslide activity in Seattle will continue for the foreseeable future. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multi-source analysis reveals latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in range of Ixodes ricinus at its northern distribution limit.

PubMed

Jore, Solveig; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Hofshagen, Merete; Brun-Hansen, Hege; Kristoffersen, Anja B; Nygård, Karin; Brun, Edgar; Ottesen, Preben; Sævik, Bente K; Ytrehus, Bjørnar

2011-05-19

There is increasing evidence for a latitudinal and altitudinal shift in the distribution range of Ixodes ricinus. The reported incidence of tick-borne disease in humans is on the rise in many European countries and has raised political concern and attracted media attention. It is disputed which factors are responsible for these trends, though many ascribe shifts in distribution range to climate changes. Any possible climate effect would be most easily noticeable close to the tick's geographical distribution limits. In Norway- being the northern limit of this species in Europe- no documentation of changes in range has been published. The objectives of this study were to describe the distribution of I. ricinus in Norway and to evaluate if any range shifts have occurred relative to historical descriptions. Multiple data sources - such as tick-sighting reports from veterinarians, hunters, and the general public - and surveillance of human and animal tick-borne diseases were compared to describe the present distribution of I. ricinus in Norway. Correlation between data sources and visual comparison of maps revealed spatial consistency. In order to identify the main spatial pattern of tick abundance, a principal component analysis (PCA) was used to obtain a weighted mean of four data sources. The weighted mean explained 67% of the variation of the data sources covering Norway's 430 municipalities and was used to depict the present distribution of I. ricinus. To evaluate if any geographical range shift has occurred in recent decades, the present distribution was compared to historical data from 1943 and 1983. Tick-borne disease and/or observations of I. ricinus was reported in municipalities up to an altitude of 583 metres above sea level (MASL) and is now present in coastal municipalities north to approximately 69°N. I. ricinus is currently found further north and at higher altitudes than described in historical records. The approach used in this study, a multi-source analysis, proved useful to assess alterations in tick distribution.

Making Temporal Search More Central in Spatial Data Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corti, P.; Lewis, B.

2017-10-01

A temporally enabled Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) is a framework of geospatial data, metadata, users, and tools intended to provide an efficient and flexible way to use spatial information which includes the historical dimension. One of the key software components of an SDI is the catalogue service which is needed to discover, query, and manage the metadata. A search engine is a software system capable of supporting fast and reliable search, which may use any means necessary to get users to the resources they need quickly and efficiently. These techniques may include features such as full text search, natural language processing, weighted results, temporal search based on enrichment, visualization of patterns in distributions of results in time and space using temporal and spatial faceting, and many others. In this paper we will focus on the temporal aspects of search which include temporal enrichment using a time miner - a software engine able to search for date components within a larger block of text, the storage of time ranges in the search engine, handling historical dates, and the use of temporal histograms in the user interface to display the temporal distribution of search results.

Historical demographic dynamics underlying local adaptation in the presence of gene flow

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Ângela M; Lopes, Ricardo J; Bowie, Rauri C K

2012-01-01

The range of a species is the result of the relative contribution of spatial tracking of environmental requirements and adaptation to ecological conditions outside the ancestral niche. The appearance of novel habitats caused by climatic oscillation can promote range expansion and accompanying demographic growth. The demographic dynamics of populations leave a signal in \\ patterns. We modeled three competing scenarios pertaining to the circumstance of a range expansion by the Karoo Scrub-Robin into newly available habitat resulting from the increasing aridification of southern Africa. Genetic variation was contrasted with the theoretical expectations of a spatial range expansion, and compared with data of a putative adaptive trait. We infer that this bird likely colonized the arid zone, as a consequence of adaptive evolution in a small peripheral population, followed by an expansion with recurrent exchange of migrants with the ancestral populations. PMID:23170207

Research on reconstructing spatial distribution of historical cropland over 300 years in traditional cultivated regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xuhong; Jin, Xiaobin; Guo, Beibei; Long, Ying; Zhou, Yinkang

2015-05-01

Constructing a spatially explicit time series of historical cultivated land is of upmost importance for climatic and ecological studies that make use of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) data. Some scholars have made efforts to simulate and reconstruct the quantitative information on historical land use at the global or regional level based on "top-down" decision-making behaviors to match overall cropland area to land parcels using land arability and universal parameters. Considering the concentrated distribution of cultivated land and various factors influencing cropland distribution, including environmental and human factors, this study developed a "bottom-up" model of historical cropland based on constrained Cellular Automaton (CA). Our model takes a historical cropland area as an external variable and the cropland distribution in 1980 as the maximum potential scope of historical cropland. We selected elevation, slope, water availability, average annual precipitation, and distance to the nearest rural settlement as the main influencing factors of land use suitability. Then, an available labor force index is used as a proxy for the amount of cropland to inspect and calibrate these spatial patterns. This paper applies the model to a traditional cultivated region in China and reconstructs its spatial distribution of cropland during 6 periods. The results are shown as follows: (1) a constrained CA is well suited for simulating and reconstructing the spatial distribution of cropland in China's traditional cultivated region. (2) Taking the different factors affecting spatial pattern of cropland into consideration, the partitioning of the research area effectively reflected the spatial differences in cropland evolution rules and rates. (3) Compared with "HYDE datasets", this research has formed higher-resolution Boolean spatial distribution datasets of historical cropland with a more definitive concept of spatial pattern in terms of fractional format. We conclude that our reconstruction is closer to the actual change pattern of the traditional cultivated region in China.

Data center thermal management

DOEpatents

Hamann, Hendrik F.; Li, Hongfei

2016-02-09

Historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data and dynamic temperature sensor measurement data may be used to predict temperature. A first formulation may be derived based on the historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data for determining a temperature at any point in 3-dimensional space. The dynamic temperature sensor measurement data may be calibrated based on the historical high-spatial-resolution temperature data at a corresponding historical time. Sensor temperature data at a plurality of sensor locations may be predicted for a future time based on the calibrated dynamic temperature sensor measurement data. A three-dimensional temperature spatial distribution associated with the future time may be generated based on the forecasted sensor temperature data and the first formulation. The three-dimensional temperature spatial distribution associated with the future time may be projected to a two-dimensional temperature distribution, and temperature in the future time for a selected space location may be forecasted dynamically based on said two-dimensional temperature distribution.

Historical and current forest and range landscapes in the interior Columbia River basin and portions of the Klamath and Great Basins. Part 1: Linking vegetation patterns and landscape vulnerability to potential insect and pathogen disturbances.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; Bradley G. Smith; Scott D. Kreiter; Craig A. Miller; R. Brion Salter; Cecilia H. McNicoll; Wendel J. Hann

1999-01-01

Management activities of the 20th century, especially fire exclusion, timber harvest, and domestic livestock grazing, have significantly modified vegetation spatial patterns of forests and ranges in the interior Columbia basin. Compositional patterns as well as patterns of living and dead structure have changed. Dramatic change in vital ecosystem processes such as fire...

Fine-scale variation of historical fire regimes in sagebrush-steppe and juniper woodland: An example from California, USA

Treesearch

Richard F. Miller; Emily K. Heyerdahl

2008-01-01

Coarse-scale estimates of fire intervals across the mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata spp. vaseyana (Rydb.) Beetle) alliance range from decades to centuries. However, soil depth and texture can affect the abundance and continuity of fine fuels and vary at fine spatial scales, suggesting fire regimes may vary at similar scales. We explored...

Spatial Integration Analysis of Provincial Historical and Cultural Heritage Resources Based on Geographic Information System (gis) — a Case Study of Spatial Integration Analysis of Historical and Cultural Heritage Resources in Zhejiang Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, W.; Zhang, J.; Wu, Q.; Chen, J.; Huo, X.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, T.

2017-08-01

In China historical and cultural heritage resources include historically and culturally famous cities, towns, villages, blocks, immovable cultural relics and the scenic spots with cultural connotation. The spatial distribution laws of these resources are always directly connected to the regional physical geography, historical development and historical traffic geography and have high research values. Meanwhile, the exhibition and use of these resources are greatly influenced by traffic and tourism and other plans at the provincial level, and it is of great realistic significance to offer proposals on traffic and so on that are beneficial to the exhibition of heritage resources based on the research of province distribution laws. This paper takes the spatial analysis of Geographic Information System (GIS) as the basic technological means and all historical and cultural resources in China's Zhejiang Province as research objects, and finds out in the space the accumulation areas and accumulation belts of Zhejiang Province's historic cities and cultural resources through overlay analysis and density analysis, etc. It then discusses the reasons of the formation of these accumulation areas and accumulation belts by combining with the analysis of physical geography and historical geography and so on, and in the end, linking the tourism planning and traffic planning at the provincial level, it provides suggestions on the exhibition and use of accumulation areas and accumulation belts of historic cities and cultural resources.

Reconstructing the spatial pattern of historical forest land in China in the past 300 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xuhong; Jin, Xiaobin; Xiang, Xiaomin; Fan, Yeting; Shan, Wei; Zhou, Yinkang

2018-06-01

The reconstruction of the historical forest spatial distribution is of a great significance to understanding land surface cover in historical periods as well as its climate and ecological effects. Based on the maximum scope of historical forest land before human intervention, the characteristics of human behaviors in farmland reclamation and deforestation for heating and timber, we create a spatial evolution model to reconstruct the spatial pattern of historical forest land. The model integrates the land suitability for reclamation, the difficulty of deforestation, the attractiveness of timber trading markets and the abundance of forest resources to calibrate the potential scope of historical forest land with the rationale that the higher the probability of deforestation for reclamation and wood, the greater the likelihood that the forest land will be deforested. Compared to the satellite-based forest land distribution in 2000, about 78.5% of our reconstructed historical forest grids are of the absolute error between 25% and -25% while as many as 95.85% of those grids are of the absolute error between 50% and -50%, which indirectly validates the feasibility of our reconstructed model. Then, we simulate the spatial distribution of forest land in China in 1661, 1724, 1820, 1887, 1933 and 1952 with the grid resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Our result shows that (1) the reconstructed historical forest land in China in the past 300 years concentrates in DaXingAnLing, XiaoXingAnLing, ChangBaiShan, HengDuanShan, DaBaShan, WuYiShan, DaBieShan, XueFengShang and etc.; (2) in terms of the spatial evolution, historical forest land shrank gradually in LiaoHe plains, SongHuaJiang-NenJiang plains and SanJiang plains of eastnorth of China, Sichuan basins and YunNan-GuiZhou Plateaus; and (3) these observations are consistent to the proceeding of agriculture reclamation in China in past 300 years towards Northeast China and Southwest China.

Using Historical Atlas Data to Develop High-Resolution Distribution Models of Freshwater Fishes

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatial pattern of species distributions is fundamental in biogeography, and conservation and resource management applications. Most species distribution models (SDMs) require or prefer species presence and absence data for adequate estimation of model parameters. However, observations with unreliable or unreported species absences dominate and limit the implementation of SDMs. Presence-only models generally yield less accurate predictions of species distribution, and make it difficult to incorporate spatial autocorrelation. The availability of large amounts of historical presence records for freshwater fishes of the United States provides an opportunity for deriving reliable absences from data reported as presence-only, when sampling was predominantly community-based. In this study, we used boosted regression trees (BRT), logistic regression, and MaxEnt models to assess the performance of a historical metacommunity database with inferred absences, for modeling fish distributions, investigating the effect of model choice and data properties thereby. With models of the distribution of 76 native, non-game fish species of varied traits and rarity attributes in four river basins across the United States, we show that model accuracy depends on data quality (e.g., sample size, location precision), species’ rarity, statistical modeling technique, and consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The cross-validation area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) tended to be high in the spatial presence-absence models at the highest level of resolution for species with large geographic ranges and small local populations. Prevalence affected training but not validation AUC. The key habitat predictors identified and the fish-habitat relationships evaluated through partial dependence plots corroborated most previous studies. The community-based SDM framework broadens our capability to model species distributions by innovatively removing the constraint of lack of species absence data, thus providing a robust prediction of distribution for stream fishes in other regions where historical data exist, and for other taxa (e.g., benthic macroinvertebrates, birds) usually observed by community-based sampling designs. PMID:26075902

Geographic variation in genetic and demographic performance: new insights from an old biogeographical paradigm.

PubMed

Pironon, Samuel; Papuga, Guillaume; Villellas, Jesús; Angert, Amy L; García, María B; Thompson, John D

2017-11-01

The 'centre-periphery hypothesis' (CPH) is a long-standing postulate in ecology that states that genetic variation and demographic performance of a species decrease from the centre to the edge of its geographic range. This hypothesis is based on an assumed concordance between geographical peripherality and ecological marginality such that environmental conditions become harsher towards the limits of a species range. In this way, the CPH sets the stage for understanding the causes of distribution limits. To date, no study has examined conjointly the consistency of these postulates. In an extensive literature review we discuss the birth and development of the CPH and provide an assessment of the CPH by reviewing 248 empirical studies in the context of three main themes. First, a decrease in species occurrence towards their range limits was observed in 81% of studies, while only 51% demonstrated reduced abundance of individuals. A decline in genetic variation, increased differentiation among populations and higher rates of inbreeding were demonstrated by roughly one in two studies (47, 45 and 48%, respectively). However, demographic rates, size and population performance less often followed CPH expectations (20-30% of studies). We highlight the impact of important methodological, taxonomic, and biogeographical biases on such validation rates. Second, we found that geographic and ecological marginality gradients are not systematically concordant, which casts doubt on the reliability of a main assumption of the CPH. Finally, we attempt to disentangle the relative contribution of geographical, ecological and historical processes on the spatial distribution of genetic and demographic parameters. While ecological marginality gradients explain variation in species' demographic performance better than geographic gradients, contemporary and historical factors may contribute interactively to spatial patterns of genetic variation. We thereby propose a framework that integrates species' ecological niche characteristics together with current and past range structure to investigate spatial patterns of genetic and demographic variation across species ranges. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Newspaper archives + text mining = rich sources of historical geo-spatial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yzaguirre, A.; Smit, M.; Warren, R.

2016-04-01

Newspaper archives are rich sources of cultural, social, and historical information. These archives, even when digitized, are typically unstructured and organized by date rather than by subject or location, and require substantial manual effort to analyze. The effort of journalists to be accurate and precise means that there is often rich geo-spatial data embedded in the text, alongside text describing events that editors considered to be of sufficient importance to the region or the world to merit column inches. A regional newspaper can add over 100,000 articles to its database each year, and extracting information from this data for even a single country would pose a substantial Big Data challenge. In this paper, we describe a pilot study on the construction of a database of historical flood events (location(s), date, cause, magnitude) to be used in flood assessment projects, for example to calibrate models, estimate frequency, establish high water marks, or plan for future events in contexts ranging from urban planning to climate change adaptation. We then present a vision for extracting and using the rich geospatial data available in unstructured text archives, and suggest future avenues of research.

Geographical thinking in nursing inquiry, part one: locations, contents, meanings.

PubMed

Andrews, Gavin J

2016-10-01

Spatial thought is undergoing somewhat of a renaissance in nursing. Building on a long disciplinary tradition of conceptualizing and studying 'nursing environment', the past twenty years has witnessing the establishment and refinement of explicitly geographical nursing research. This article - part one in a series of two - reviews the perspectives taken to date, ranging from historical precedent in classical nursing theory through to positivistic spatial science, political economy, and social constructivism in contemporary inquiry. This discussion sets up part two, which considers the potential of non-representational theory for framing future studies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Spatial Scale and Spatial Configuration of Residential Settlement: Measuring Segregation in the Postbellum South

PubMed Central

Logan, John R.; Martinez, Matthew

2018-01-01

Studies of residential segregation typically focus on its degree without questioning its scale and configuration. We study Southern cities in 1880 to emphasize the salience of these spatial dimensions. Distance-based and sequence indices can reflect spatial patterns but with some limitations, while geocoded 100% population data make possible more informative measures. One improvement is flexibility in spatial scale, ranging from adjacent buildings to whole districts of the city. Another is the ability to map patterns in fine detail. In Southern cities we find qualitatively distinct configurations that include not only black “neighborhoods” as usually imagined, but also backyard housing, alley housing, and side streets that were predominantly black. These configurations represent the sort of symbolic boundaries recognized by urban ethnographers. By mapping residential configurations and interpreting them in light of historical accounts, our intention is to capture meanings that are too often missed by quantitative studies of segregation. PMID:29479108

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mikle, Nathaniel; Graves, Tabitha A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2016-01-01

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

PubMed Central

Kovach, Ryan; Kendall, Katherine C.; Macleod, Amy C.

2016-01-01

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral. PMID:27655768

Population Structure and Dispersal Patterns within and between Atlantic and Mediterranean Populations of a Large-Range Pelagic Seabird

PubMed Central

Genovart, Meritxell; Thibault, Jean-Claude; Igual, José Manuel; Bauzà-Ribot, Maria del Mar; Rabouam, Corinne; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2013-01-01

Dispersal is critically linked to the demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations, but in most seabird species it may be difficult to estimate. Using molecular tools, we explored population structure and the spatial dispersal pattern of a highly pelagic but philopatric seabird, the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea. Microsatellite fragments were analysed from samples collected across almost the entire breeding range of the species. To help disentangle the taxonomic status of the two subspecies described, the Atlantic form C. d. borealis and the Mediterranean form C. d. diomedea, we analysed genetic divergence between subspecies and quantified both historical and recent migration rates between the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins. We also searched for evidence of isolation by distance (IBD) and addressed spatial patterns of gene flow. We found a low genetic structure in the Mediterranean basin. Conversely, strong genetic differentiation appeared in the Atlantic basin. Even if the species was mostly philopatric (97%), results suggest recent dispersal between basins, especially from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean (aprox. 10% of migrants/generation across the last two generations). Long-term gene flow analyses also suggested an historical exchange between basins (about 70 breeders/generation). Spatial analysis of genetic variation indicates that distance is not the main factor in shaping genetic structure in this species. Given our results we recommend gathering more data before concluded whether these taxa should be treated as two species or subspecies. PMID:23950986

Historical forest structure, composition, and spatial pattern in dry conifer forests of the western Blue Mountains, Oregon

Treesearch

Derek J. Churchill; Gunnar C. Carnwath; Andrew J. Larson; Sean A. Jeronimo

2017-01-01

In frequent-fire forests of the interior Western United States, historical (prefire suppression) conditions are often used as a reference to set management objectives, guide prescriptions, and monitor treatment effectiveness. We quantified the historical size, density, composition, and spatial patterns of dry mixed-conifer forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon to...

Comparing fuel reduction treatments for reducing wildfire size and intensity in a boreal forest landscape of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Liu, Zhihua; Liang, Yu

2013-06-01

Fuel load is often used to prioritize stands for fuel reduction treatments. However, wildfire size and intensity are not only related to fuel loads but also to a wide range of other spatially related factors such as topography, weather and human activity. In prioritizing fuel reduction treatments, we propose using burn probability to account for the effects of spatially related factors that can affect wildfire size and intensity. Our burn probability incorporated fuel load, ignition probability, and spread probability (spatial controls to wildfire) at a particular location across a landscape. Our goal was to assess differences in reducing wildfire size and intensity using fuel-load and burn-probability based treatment prioritization approaches. Our study was conducted in a boreal forest in northeastern China. We derived a fuel load map from a stand map and a burn probability map based on historical fire records and potential wildfire spread pattern. The burn probability map was validated using historical records of burned patches. We then simulated 100 ignitions and six fuel reduction treatments to compare fire size and intensity under two approaches of fuel treatment prioritization. We calibrated and validated simulated wildfires against historical wildfire data. Our results showed that fuel reduction treatments based on burn probability were more effective at reducing simulated wildfire size, mean and maximum rate of spread, and mean fire intensity, but less effective at reducing maximum fire intensity across the burned landscape than treatments based on fuel load. Thus, contributions from both fuels and spatially related factors should be considered for each fuel reduction treatment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Revitalisation as a Method of Planning Sustainable Development of Old Town Complexes in Historic Towns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagroba, Marek; Gawryluk, Dorota

2017-12-01

Old towns in spatial structures of historic towns are the areas which - same as centuries before - serve as the town centres. This is almost invariably true about small towns especially, as the inner town district is more frequently the site where a town was originally located and is often the manifestation of its historic identity. However, functional and spatial problems of many small historic towns arise from the above trend, mostly because of the frequently high density of buildings in the oldest part of a town. The intricate nature of elements creating the structure of a town’s historic centre often calls for certain steps to be taken, which will ensure better exposure of an old town complex against the backdrop of the town’s other areas. Numerous problems need to be solved, not only spatial but also economic and social ones. A town is a living organism, inhabited by people. The key to tackling these issues successfully lies in the creation of such revitalisation programmes that will improve the quality of space and help achieve the sustainable development of inner-town areas in historic towns. The historic centres in the medieval towns of Warmia, a region rich in history and situated in north-eastern Poland, can serve as an example and has been investigated in the following study. All the towns in Warmia located in the Middle Ages, except the capital of the region Olsztyn, can be classified as small urban developments. This group of eleven towns is dominated by the ones whose territorial coverage has not changed considerably since the location and the population ranges from a few thousand to less than twenty thousand. To this day, the historic quarters of these towns have remained the central ones in each town, and their urban structures to a various extent reveal the features characteristic for the period when they were created. The differences are due to the war damage the towns suffered at the end of World War Two and because of the different ways in which they were reconstructed afterwards. In consequence, some elements of the original town master plans have been lost. Revitalisation is an approach whose aim is to improve the quality of space and the ability of inner town areas to function. Revitalisation goes beyond the purely spatial factors, and involves broadly understood economic and social considerations. The conclusions drawn from this research pertain to benefits of using the revitalisation method in planning a sustainable development of urban structures. The development and implementation of revitalisation programmes is a very complex process that takes many years and requires an integrated and interdisciplinary team effort. This method allows us to preserve the identity of historic town areas while enabling them to play functions in the contemporary life of a town.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species.

PubMed

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Casalis, Maxime; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W; Heuertz, Myriam

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations.

Altitudinal gradients, biogeographic history and microhabitat adaptation affect fine-scale spatial genetic structure in African and Neotropical populations of an ancient tropical tree species

PubMed Central

Torroba-Balmori, Paloma; Budde, Katharina B.; Heer, Katrin; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Olsson, Sanna; Scotti-Saintagne, Caroline; Sonké, Bonaventure; Dick, Christopher W.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) within populations can provide insights into eco-evolutionary processes. Restricted dispersal and locally occurring genetic drift are the primary causes for FSGS at equilibrium, as described in the isolation by distance (IBD) model. Beyond IBD expectations, spatial, environmental or historical factors can affect FSGS. We examined FSGS in seven African and Neotropical populations of the late-successional rain forest tree Symphonia globulifera L. f. (Clusiaceae) to discriminate the influence of drift-dispersal vs. landscape/ecological features and historical processes on FSGS. We used spatial principal component analysis and Bayesian clustering to assess spatial genetic heterogeneity at SSRs and examined its association with plastid DNA and habitat features. African populations (from Cameroon and São Tomé) displayed a stronger FSGS than Neotropical populations at both marker types (mean Sp = 0.025 vs. Sp = 0.008 at SSRs) and had a stronger spatial genetic heterogeneity. All three African populations occurred in pronounced altitudinal gradients, possibly restricting animal-mediated seed dispersal. Cyto-nuclear disequilibria in Cameroonian populations also suggested a legacy of biogeographic history to explain these genetic patterns. Conversely, Neotropical populations exhibited a weaker FSGS, which may reflect more efficient wide-ranging seed dispersal by Neotropical bats and other dispersers. The population from French Guiana displayed an association of plastid haplotypes with two morphotypes characterized by differential habitat preferences. Our results highlight the importance of the microenvironment for eco-evolutionary processes within persistent tropical tree populations. PMID:28771629

Ghost reefs: Nautical charts document large spatial scale of coral reef loss over 240 years

PubMed Central

McClenachan, Loren; O’Connor, Grace; Neal, Benjamin P.; Pandolfi, John M.; Jackson, Jeremy B. C.

2017-01-01

Massive declines in population abundances of marine animals have been documented over century-long time scales. However, analogous loss of spatial extent of habitat-forming organisms is less well known because georeferenced data are rare over long time scales, particularly in subtidal, tropical marine regions. We use high-resolution historical nautical charts to quantify changes to benthic structure over 240 years in the Florida Keys, finding an overall loss of 52% (SE, 6.4%) of the area of the seafloor occupied by corals. We find a strong spatial dimension to this decline; the spatial extent of coral in Florida Bay and nearshore declined by 87.5% (SE, 7.2%) and 68.8% (SE, 7.5%), respectively, whereas that of offshore areas of coral remained largely intact. These estimates add to finer-scale loss in live coral cover exceeding 90% in some locations in recent decades. The near-complete elimination of the spatial coverage of nearshore coral represents an underappreciated spatial component of the shifting baseline syndrome, with important lessons for other species and ecosystems. That is, modern surveys are typically designed to assess change only within the species’ known, extant range. For species ranging from corals to sea turtles, this approach may overlook spatial loss over longer time frames, resulting in both overly optimistic views of their current conservation status and underestimates of their restoration potential. PMID:28913420

Masticophis flagellum selects florida scrub habitat at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, B.J.; Mushinsky, H.R.; McCoy, E.D.

2009-01-01

The use of space by individual animals strongly influences the spatial extent, abundance, and growth rates of their populations. We analyzed the spatial ecology and habitat selection of Masticophis flagellum (the coachwhip) at three different scales to determine which habitats are most important to this species. Home ranges and mean daily displacements of M. flagellum in Florida were large compared to individuals in other populations of this species. Home ranges contained a greater proportion of Florida scrub habitat than did the study site as a whole, and individuals selected Florida scrub habitat within their home ranges. For both selection of the home range within the study site and selection of habitats within the home range, mesic cutthroat and hydric swamp habitats were avoided. Standardized selection ratios of Florida scrub patches were positively correlated with lizard abundance. Several non-mutually exclusive mechanisms, including foraging success (prey abundance, prey vulnerability, and foraging efficiency), abundance of refugia, and thermoregulatory opportunity may underlie the selection of Florida scrub by M. flagellum. Historic rarity and anthropogenic loss and fragmentation of Florida scrub habitat, coupled with the long-distance movements, large home ranges, and selection of Florida scrub by M. flagellum, indicate that large contiguous tracts of land containing Florida scrub will be essential for the persistence of M. flagellum in central Florida. ?? 2009 by The Herpetologists' League, Inc.

Genetic diversity and differentiation in a wide ranging anadromous fish, American shad (Alosa sapidissima), is correlated with latitude.

PubMed

Hasselman, Daniel J; Ricard, Daniel; Bentzen, Paul

2013-03-01

Studies that span entire species ranges can provide insight into the relative roles of historical contingency and contemporary factors that influence population structure and can reveal patterns of genetic variation that might otherwise go undetected. American shad is a wide ranging anadromous clupeid fish that exhibits variation in demographic histories and reproductive strategies (both semelparity and iteroparity) and provides a unique perspective on the evolutionary processes that govern the genetic architecture of anadromous fishes. Using 13 microsatellite loci, we examined the magnitude and spatial distribution of genetic variation among 33 populations across the species' range to (i) determine whether signals of historical demography persist among contemporary populations and (ii) assess the effect of different reproductive strategies on population structure. Patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation among populations varied widely and reflect the differential influences of historical demography, microevolutionary processes and anthropogenic factors across the species' range. Sequential reductions of diversity with latitude among formerly glaciated rivers are consistent with stepwise postglacial colonization and successive population founder events. Weak differentiation among U.S. iteroparous populations may be a consequence of human-mediated gene flow, while weak differentiation among semelparous populations probably reflects natural gene flow. Evidence for an effect of reproductive strategy on population structure suggests an important role for environmental variation and suggests that the factors that are responsible for shaping American shad life history patterns may also influence population genetic structure. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Progress towards the use of publicly available data networks to conduct cross-scale historical reconstructions of carbon dynamics in US Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Landolt, K.; Emanuel, R. E.; Therrell, M. D.; Nagle, N.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.; Poulter, B.

2016-12-01

Emergent scale properties of water-limited or Dryland ecosystem's carbon flux are unknown at spatial scales from local to global and time scales of 10 - 1000 years or greater. The width of a tree ring is a metric of production that has been correlated with the amount of precipitation. This relationship has been used to reconstruct rainfall and fire histories in the Drylands of the southwestern US. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is globally measured by selected satellite sensors and is highly correlated with the fraction of solar radiation which is absorbed for photosynthesis by plants (FPAR), as well as with vegetation biomass, net primary productivity (NPP), and tree ring width. Publicly available web-based archives of free NDVI and tree ring data exist and have allowed historical temporal reconstructions of carbon dynamics for the past 300 to 500 years. Climate and tree ring databases have been used to spatially reconstruct drought dynamics for the last 500 years in the western US. In 2007, we hypothesized that NDVI and tree ring width could be used to spatially reconstruct carbon dynamics in US Drylands. In 2015, we succeeded with a 300-year historical spatial reconstruction of NPP in California using a Blue Oak tree ring chronology. Online eddy covariance flux tower measures of NPP are well correlated with satellite measures of NPP. This suggests that net ecosystem exchange (NEE = NPP - soil Respiration) could be historically reconstructed across Drylands. Ongoing research includes 1) scaling historical spatial reconstruction to US Drylands, 2) comparing the use of single versus multiple tree ring species (r2 = 68) and 3) use of the eddy flux tower network, remote sensing, and tree ring data to historically spatially reconstruct Dryland NEE.

Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vessella, Federico; Simeone, Marco Cosimo; Schirone, Bartolomeo

2015-07-01

Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of the Mediterranean Biome, from 130 ka to the present time. Hindcasting implications would deal with a better species risk assessment and conservation management for the future. We modelled present and past occurrence of cork oak using seven ENM algorithms, starting from 63,733 spatially unique presence points at 30 arc-second resolution. Fourteen environmental variables were used and four time slices were considered (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and present time). A threshold-independent evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated by means of ROC curve and fossil or historical evidences were used to validate the results. Four weighted average maps depicted the dynamics of area suitability for cork oak in the last 130 ka. The derived species autoecology allowed its long-term occurrence in the Mediterranean without striking range reduction or shifting. Fossil and historical post-processing validation support the modelled past spatial extension and a neglected species presence at Levantine until the recent time. Despite the severe climatic oscillation since the Last Glacial Maximum, cork oak potential distribution area experienced limited range changes, confirming its strong link with the Mediterranean Basin. The ecological amplitude of Quercus suber could be therefore adopted as a reference to trace the Mediterranean bioclimate area. A better knowledge of the past events of Mediterranean vegetation, a wider range of study species and environmental determinants are essential to inform us about its current state, its sensitivity to human impact and the potential responses to future changes.

Applied historical ecology: Using the past to manage for the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, Thomas W.; Allen, Craig D.; Betancourt, Julio L.

1999-01-01

Applied historical ecology is the use of historical knowledge in the management of ecosystems. Historical perspectives increase our understanding of the dynamic nature of landscapes and provide a frame of reference for assessing modern patterns and processes. Historical records, however, are often too brief or fragmentary to be useful, or they are not obtainable for the process or structure of interest. Even where long historical time series can be assembled, selection of appropriate reference conditions may be complicated by the past influence of humans and the many potential reference conditions encompassed by nonequilibrium dynamics. These complications, however, do not lessen the value of history; rather they underscore the need for multiple, comparative histories from many locations for evaluating both cultural and natural causes of variability, as well as for characterizing the overall dynamical properties of ecosystems. Historical knowledge may not simplify the task of setting management goals and making decisions, but 20th century trends, such as increasingly severe wildfires, suggest that disregarding history can be perilous. We describe examples from our research in the southwestern United States to illustrate some of the values and limitations of applied historical ecology. Paleoecological data from packrat middens and other natural archives have been useful for defining baseline conditions of vegetation communities, determining histories and rates of species range expansions and contractions, and discriminating between natural and cultural causes of environmental change. We describe a montane grassland restoration project in northern New Mexico that was justified and guided by an historical sequence of aerial photographs showing progressive tree invasion during the 20th century. Likewise, fire scar chronologies have been widely used to justify and guide fuel reduction and natural five reintroduction in forests. A southwestern network of fire histories illustrates the power of aggregating historical time series across spatial scales. Regional fire patterns evident in these aggregations point to the key role of interannual lags in responses of fuels and fire regimes to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (wet/dry cycles), with important implications for long-range fire hazard forecasting. These examples of applied historical ecology emphasize that detection and explanation of historical trends and variability are essential to informed management.

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.

PubMed

Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S; Running, Steven W

2006-06-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

Geomorphology Drives Amphibian Beta Diversity in Atlantic Forest Lowlands of Southeastern Brazil

PubMed Central

Luiz, Amom Mendes; Leão-Pires, Thiago Augusto; Sawaya, Ricardo J.

2016-01-01

Beta diversity patterns are the outcome of multiple processes operating at different scales. Amphibian assemblages seem to be affected by contemporary climate and dispersal-based processes. However, historical processes involved in present patterns of beta diversity remain poorly understood. We assess and disentangle geomorphological, climatic and spatial drivers of amphibian beta diversity in coastal lowlands of the Atlantic Forest, southeastern Brazil. We tested the hypothesis that geomorphological factors are more important in structuring anuran beta diversity than climatic and spatial factors. We obtained species composition via field survey (N = 766 individuals), museum specimens (N = 9,730) and literature records (N = 4,763). Sampling area was divided in four spatially explicit geomorphological units, representing historical predictors. Climatic descriptors were represented by the first two axis of a Principal Component Analysis. Spatial predictors in different spatial scales were described by Moran Eigenvector Maps. Redundancy Analysis was implemented to partition the explained variation of species composition by geomorphological, climatic and spatial predictors. Moreover, spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to test neutral theory predictions. Beta diversity was spatially structured in broader scales. Shared fraction between climatic and geomorphological variables was an important predictor of species composition (13%), as well as broad scale spatial predictors (13%). However, geomorphological variables alone were the most important predictor of beta diversity (42%). Historical factors related to geomorphology must have played a crucial role in structuring amphibian beta diversity. The complex relationships between geomorphological history and climatic gradients generated by the Serra do Mar Precambrian basements were also important. We highlight the importance of combining spatially explicit historical and contemporary predictors for understanding and disentangling major drivers of beta diversity patterns. PMID:27171522

Geomorphology Drives Amphibian Beta Diversity in Atlantic Forest Lowlands of Southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Luiz, Amom Mendes; Leão-Pires, Thiago Augusto; Sawaya, Ricardo J

2016-01-01

Beta diversity patterns are the outcome of multiple processes operating at different scales. Amphibian assemblages seem to be affected by contemporary climate and dispersal-based processes. However, historical processes involved in present patterns of beta diversity remain poorly understood. We assess and disentangle geomorphological, climatic and spatial drivers of amphibian beta diversity in coastal lowlands of the Atlantic Forest, southeastern Brazil. We tested the hypothesis that geomorphological factors are more important in structuring anuran beta diversity than climatic and spatial factors. We obtained species composition via field survey (N = 766 individuals), museum specimens (N = 9,730) and literature records (N = 4,763). Sampling area was divided in four spatially explicit geomorphological units, representing historical predictors. Climatic descriptors were represented by the first two axis of a Principal Component Analysis. Spatial predictors in different spatial scales were described by Moran Eigenvector Maps. Redundancy Analysis was implemented to partition the explained variation of species composition by geomorphological, climatic and spatial predictors. Moreover, spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to test neutral theory predictions. Beta diversity was spatially structured in broader scales. Shared fraction between climatic and geomorphological variables was an important predictor of species composition (13%), as well as broad scale spatial predictors (13%). However, geomorphological variables alone were the most important predictor of beta diversity (42%). Historical factors related to geomorphology must have played a crucial role in structuring amphibian beta diversity. The complex relationships between geomorphological history and climatic gradients generated by the Serra do Mar Precambrian basements were also important. We highlight the importance of combining spatially explicit historical and contemporary predictors for understanding and disentangling major drivers of beta diversity patterns.

Historical spatial reconstruction of a spawning-aggregation fishery.

PubMed

Buckley, Sarah M; Thurstan, Ruth H; Tobin, Andrew; Pandolfi, John M

2017-12-01

Aggregations of individual animals that form for breeding purposes are a critical ecological process for many species, yet these aggregations are inherently vulnerable to exploitation. Studies of the decline of exploited populations that form breeding aggregations tend to focus on catch rate and thus often overlook reductions in geographic range. We tested the hypothesis that catch rate and site occupancy of exploited fish-spawning aggregations (FSAs) decline in synchrony over time. We used the Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) spawning-aggregation fishery in the Great Barrier Reef as a case study. Data were compiled from historical newspaper archives, fisher knowledge, and contemporary fishery logbooks to reconstruct catch rates and exploitation trends from the inception of the fishery. Our fine-scale analysis of catch and effort data spanned 103 years (1911-2013) and revealed a spatial expansion of fishing effort. Effort shifted offshore at a rate of 9.4 nm/decade, and 2.9 newly targeted FSAs were reported/decade. Spatial expansion of effort masked the sequential exploitation, commercial extinction, and loss of 70% of exploited FSAs. After standardizing for improvements in technological innovations, average catch rates declined by 90.5% from 1934 to 2011 (from 119.4 to 11.41 fish/vessel/trip). Mean catch rate of Spanish mackerel and occupancy of exploited mackerel FSAs were not significantly related. Our study revealed a special kind of shifting spatial baseline in which a contraction in exploited FSAs occurred undetected. Knowledge of temporally and spatially explicit information on FSAs can be relevant for the conservation and management of FSA species. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

2015-01-01

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

PubMed

Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

2016-08-01

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Queer Pedagogies Out of Place and Time: Redrawing the Boundaries of Youth, Sexual and Gender Difference, and Education.

PubMed

Marshall, Daniel

2016-01-01

For this contribution to the "Cartographies" section of the special issue on "Mapping Queer Bioethics," the author focuses on the concept of spatialized time as made material in the location of historical places, in particular as it relates to a reconsideration of approaches to Australian queer/LGBT youth education. Accordingly, the author employs historical maps as illustrative examples of spatialized time, reflecting on the relationships between historical knowledge and queer youth education.

Studying plant–pollinator interactions in a changing climate: A review of approaches1

PubMed Central

Byers, Diane L.

2017-01-01

Plant–pollinator interactions are potentially at risk due to climate change. Because of the spatial and temporal variation associated with the effects of climate change and the responses of both actors, research to assess this interaction requires creative approaches. This review focuses on assessments of plants’ and pollinators’ altered phenology in response to environmental changes, as phenology is one of the key responses. I reviewed research methods with the goal of presenting the wide diversity of available techniques for addressing changes in these interactions. Approaches ranged from use of historical specimens to multisite experimental community studies; while differing in depth of historical information and community interactions, all contribute to assessment of phenology changes. Particularly insightful were those studies that directly assessed the environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales and the responses of plants and pollinators at these scales. Longer-term studies across environmental gradients, potentially with reciprocal transplants, enable an assessment of climate impacts at both scales. While changes in phenology are well studied, the impacts of phenology changes are not. Future research should include approaches to address this gap. PMID:28690933

Projecting water resources changes in potential large-scale agricultural investment areas of the Kafue River Basin in Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Trainor, A. M.; Baker, T. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts regional water availability through the spatial and temporal redistribution of available water resources. This study focuses on understanding possible response of water resources to climate change in regions where potentials for large-scale agricultural investments are planned in the upper and middle Kafue River Basin in Zambia. We used historical and projected precipitation and temperature to assess changes in water yield, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Some of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model outputs for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios project a temperature warming range from 1.8 - 5.7 °C over the region from 2020 to 2095. Precipitation projection patterns vary monthly but tend toward drier dry seasons with a slight increase in precipitation during the rainy season as compared to the historical time series. The best five calibrated parameter sets generated for the historical record (1965 - 2005) were applied for two future periods, 2020 - 2060 and 2055 - 2095, to project water yield change. Simulations projected that the 90th percentile water yield would be exceeded across most of the study area by up to 800% under the medium-low (RCP4.5) CO2 emission scenario, whereas the high (RCP8.5) CO2 emission scenario resulted in a more spatially varied pattern mixed with increasing (up to 500%) and decreasing (up to -54%) trends. The 10th percentile water yield indicated spatially varied pattern across the basin, increasing by as much as 500% though decreasing in some areas by 66%, with the greatest decreases during the dry season under RCP8.5. Overall, available water resources in the study area are projected to trend toward increased floods (i.e. water yields far exceeding 90th percentile) as well as increasing drought (i.e. water yield far below 10th percentile) vulnerability. Because surface water is a primary source for agriculture in this region, planning must focus on simulating the potential range in spatial and temporal variability of water resources for different agricultural production schemes, their infrastructure requirements, and attendant influence on water resources in the basin.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-06-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

PubMed Central

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-01-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends. PMID:27271481

Digital database of mining-related features at selected historic and active phosphate mines, Bannock, Bear Lake, Bingham, and Caribou counties, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Causey, J. Douglas; Moyle, Phillip R.

2001-01-01

This report provides a description of data and processes used to produce a spatial database that delineates mining-related features in areas of historic and active phosphate mining in the core of the southeastern Idaho phosphate resource area. The data have varying degrees of accuracy and attribution detail. Classification of areas by type of mining-related activity at active mines is generally detailed; however, the spatial coverage does not differentiate mining-related surface disturbance features at many of the closed or inactive mines. Nineteen phosphate mine sites are included in the study. A total of 5,728 hc (14,154 ac), or more than 57 km2 (22 mi2), of phosphate mining-related surface disturbance are documented in the spatial coverage of the core of the southeast Idaho phosphate resource area. The study includes 4 active phosphate mines—Dry Valley, Enoch Valley, Rasmussen Ridge, and Smoky Canyon—and 15 historic phosphate mines—Ballard, Champ, Conda, Diamond Gulch, Gay, Georgetown Canyon, Henry, Home Canyon, Lanes Creek, Maybe Canyon, Mountain Fuel, Trail Canyon, Rattlesnake Canyon, Waterloo, and Wooley Valley. Spatial data on the inactive historic mines is relatively up-to-date; however, spatially described areas for active mines are based on digital maps prepared in early 1999. The inactive Gay mine has the largest total area of disturbance: 1,917 hc (4,736 ac) or about 19 km2 (7.4 mi2). It encompasses over three times the disturbance area of the next largest mine, the Conda mine with 607 hc (1,504 ac), and it is nearly four times the area of the Smoky Canyon mine, the largest of the active mines with 497 hc (1,228 ac). The wide range of phosphate mining-related surface disturbance features (approximately 80) were reduced to 13 types or features used in this study—adit and pit, backfilled mine pit, facilities, mine pit, ore stockpile, railroad, road, sediment catchment, tailings or tailings pond, topsoil stockpile, water reservoir, and disturbed land (undifferentiated). In summary, the spatial coverage includes polygons totaling 1,114 hc (2,753 ac) of mine pits, 272 hc (671 ac) of backfilled mine pits, 1,570 hc (3,880 ac) of waste dumps, 26 hc (64 ac) of ore stockpiles, and 44 hc (110 ac) of tailings or tailings ponds. Areas of undifferentiated phosphate mining-related land disturbances, called “disturbed land,” total 2,176 (5,377 ac) or nearly 21.8 km2 (8.4 mi2). No determination has been made as to status of reclamation on these lands. Subsequent site-specific studies to delineate distinct mine features will allow modification of this preliminary spatial database.

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Range-wide patterns of greater sage-grouse persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aldridge, Cameron L.; Nielsen, Scott E.; Beyer, Hawthorne L.; Boyce, Mark S.; Connelly, John W.; Knick, Steven T.; Schroeder, Michael A.

2008-01-01

Aim: Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a shrub-steppe obligate species of western North America, currently occupies only half its historical range. Here we examine how broad-scale, long-term trends in landscape condition have affected range contraction. Location: Sagebrush biome of the western USA. Methods: Logistic regression was used to assess persistence and extirpation of greater sage-grouse range based on landscape conditions measured by human population (density and population change), vegetation (percentage of sagebrush habitat), roads (density of and distance to roads), agriculture (cropland, farmland and cattle density), climate (number of severe and extreme droughts) and range periphery. Model predictions were used to identify areas where future extirpations can be expected, while also explaining possible causes of past extirpations. Results: Greater sage-grouse persistence and extirpation were significantly related to sagebrush habitat, cultivated cropland, human population density in 1950, prevalence of severe droughts and historical range periphery. Extirpation of sage-grouse was most likely in areas having at least four persons per square kilometre in 1950, 25% cultivated cropland in 2002 or the presence of three or more severe droughts per decade. In contrast, persistence of sage-grouse was expected when at least 30 km from historical range edge and in habitats containing at least 25% sagebrush cover within 30 km. Extirpation was most often explained (35%) by the combined effects of peripherality (within 30 km of range edge) and lack of sagebrush cover (less than 25% within 30 km). Based on patterns of prior extirpation and model predictions, we predict that 29% of remaining range may be at risk. Main Conclusions: Spatial patterns in greater sage-grouse range contraction can be explained by widely available landscape variables that describe patterns of remaining sagebrush habitat and loss due to cultivation, climatic trends, human population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non-native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape-scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity.

Documentation of Cultural Heritages Using a GIS Based Information and Management System; Case Study of Safranbolu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seker, D. Z.; Alkan, M.; Kutoglu, S. S.; Akcin, H.

2010-12-01

Documentation of the cultural heritage sites is extremely important for monitoring and preserves them from natural disasters and human made activities. Due to its very rich historical background from the first human settlements in Catalhoyuk and Alacahoyuk and civilizations such as Byzantine, Seljuk and Ottoman, there are lots of cultural heritage sites in Turkey. 3D modeling and recording of historical buildings using modern tools and techniques in several locations of Turkey have been conducted and still continuing. The nine cultural sites in Turkey are included in the protection list of UNESCO as cultural heritage and one of them is the township of Safranbolu, which is the one of the most outstanding example of the traditional Turkish Architecture and also unique itself in terms of conservation of the human settlement in their authentic environmental motif up till now. In this study outcomes and further studies of a research project related to study area which is supported by the Turkish National Research Center (TUBITAK) with the project number 106Y157, will be presented in details. The basic aim of the study is development a GIS based information and management system for the city of Safranbolu. All historical buildings which are registered are assigned with the database. 3D modeling some of the selected building among the buildings which are registered as historical monuments using different data comes from different sources similar to their original constructions were realized and then it will be distributed via internet by a web-based information system designed during the project. Also some of the buildings were evaluated using close range photogrammetric technique to obtain their façade reliefs, were also assigned with the database. Designed database consists of 3D models, locations, historical information, cadastral and land register data of the selected buildings together with the other data collected during the project related to buildings. Using this system, all kind of spatial and non-spatial analyses were realized and different thematic maps for the historical city were produced. When the project is finalized, all the historical buildings which are consists of houses, mosques, fountains and caravansary in Safranbolu will be recorded permanently and architectural features of them will be integrated to designed spatial information system. In addition, by the help of internet, many people may be reached the data easily which will be very helpful to increase the number of visitor to the town. Also, this project will be guidance for future related studies.

Assessing fire effects on forest spatial structure using a fusion of Landsat and airborne LiDAR data in Yosemite National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kane, Van R.; North, Malcolm P.; Lutz, James A.; Churchill, Derek J.; Roberts, Susan L.; Smith, Douglas F.; McGaughey, Robert J.; Kane, Jonathan T.; Brooks, Matthew L.

2014-01-01

Mosaics of tree clumps and openings are characteristic of forests dominated by frequent, low- and moderate-severity fires. When restoring these fire-suppressed forests, managers often try to reproduce these structures to increase ecosystem resilience. We examined unburned and burned forest structures for 1937 0.81 ha sample areas in Yosemite National Park, USA. We estimated severity for fires from 1984 to 2010 using the Landsat-derived Relativized differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (RdNBR) and measured openings and canopy clumps in five height strata using airborne LiDAR data. Because our study area lacked concurrent field data, we identified methods to allow structural analysis using LiDAR data alone. We found three spatial structures, canopy-gap, clump-open, and open, that differed in spatial arrangement and proportion of canopy and openings. As fire severity increased, the total area in canopy decreased while the number of clumps increased, creating a patchwork of openings and multistory tree clumps. The presence of openings > 0.3 ha, an approximate minimum gap size needed to favor shade-intolerant pine regeneration, increased rapidly with loss of canopy area. The range and variation of structures for a given fire severity were specific to each forest type. Low- to moderate-severity fires best replicated the historic clump-opening patterns that were common in forests with frequent fire regimes. Our results suggest that managers consider the following goals for their forest restoration: 1) reduce total canopy cover by breaking up large contiguous areas into variable-sized tree clumps and scattered large individual trees; 2) create a range of opening sizes and shapes, including ~ 50% of the open area in gaps > 0.3 ha; 3) create multistory clumps in addition to single story clumps; 4) retain historic densities of large trees; and 5) vary treatments to include canopy-gap, clump-open, and open mosaics across project areas to mimic the range of patterns found for each forest type in our study.

Clinal variation at microsatellite loci reveals historical secondary intergradation between glacial races of Coregonus artedi (Teleostei: Coregoninae).

PubMed

Turgeon, J; Bernatchez, L

2001-11-11

Classical models of the spatial structure of population genetics rely on the assumption of migration-drift equilibrium, which is seldom met in natural populations having only recently colonized their current range (e.g., postglacial). Population structure then depicts historical events, and counfounding effects due to recent secondary contact between recently differentiated lineages can further counfound analyses of association between geographic and genetic distances. Mitochondrial polymorphisms have revealed the existence of two closely related lineages of the lake cisco, Coregonus artedi, whose significantly different but overlaping geographical distributions provided a weak signal of past range fragmentation blurred by putative subsequent extensive secondary contacts. In this study, we analyzed geographical patterns of genetic variation at seven microsatellite loci among 22 populations of lake cisco located along the axis of an area covered by proglacial lakes 12,000-8,000 years ago in North America. The results clearly confirmed the existence of two genetically distinct races characterized by different sets of microsatellite alleles whose frequencies varied clinally across some 3000 km. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium analyses of isolation by distance revealed historical signal of gene flow resulting from the nearly complete admixture of these races following neutral secondary contacts in their historical habitat and indicated that the colonization process occurred by a stepwise expansion of an eastern (Atlantic) race into a previously established Mississippian race. This historical signal of equilibrium contrasted with the current migration-drift disequilibrium within major extant watersheds and was apparently maintained by high effective population sizes and low migration regimes.

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there is a need for improvement in LULC theory and modeling capabilities to improve acceptance and use of regional- to national-scale LULC projections for the United States and elsewhere.

Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed in this analysis, preliminary results from the development of a flexible categorization scheme, that scales with grid resolution, are presented.

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

PubMed Central

Rowe, Kevin C.; Rowe, Karen M. C.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Koo, Michelle S.; Patton, James L.; Conroy, Chris J.; Perrine, John D.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Moritz, Craig

2015-01-01

Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes. PMID:25621330

The human footprint in Mexico: physical geography and historical legacies.

PubMed

González-Abraham, Charlotte; Ezcurra, Exequiel; Garcillán, Pedro P; Ortega-Rubio, Alfredo; Kolb, Melanie; Bezaury Creel, Juan E

2015-01-01

Using publicly available data on land use and transportation corridors we calculated the human footprint index for the whole of Mexico to identify large-scale spatial patterns in the anthropogenic transformation of the land surface. We developed a map of the human footprint for the whole country and identified the ecological regions that have most transformed by human action. Additionally, we analyzed the extent to which (a) physical geography, expressed spatially in the form of biomes and ecoregions, compared to (b) historical geography, expressed as the spatial distribution of past human settlements, have driven the patterns of human modification of the land. Overall Mexico still has 56% of its land surface with low impact from human activities, but these areas are not evenly distributed. The lowest values are on the arid north and northwest, and the tropical southeast, while the highest values run along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and from there inland along an east-to-west corridor that follows the Mexican transversal volcanic ranges and the associated upland plateau. The distribution of low- and high footprint areas within ecoregions forms a complex mosaic: the generally well-conserved Mexican deserts have some highly transformed agro-industrial areas, while many well-conserved, low footprint areas still persist in the highly-transformed ecoregions of central Mexico. We conclude that the spatial spread of the human footprint in Mexico is both the result of the limitations imposed by physical geography to human development at the biome level, and, within different biomes, of a complex history of past civilizations and technologies, including the 20th Century demographic explosion but also the spatial pattern of ancient settlements that were occupied by the Spanish Colony.

The land-use legacy effect: Towards a mechanistic understanding of time-lagged water quality responses to land use/cover.

PubMed

Martin, Sherry L; Hayes, Daniel B; Kendall, Anthony D; Hyndman, David W

2017-02-01

Numerous studies have linked land use/land cover (LULC) to aquatic ecosystem responses, however only a few have included the dynamics of changing LULC in their analysis. In this study, we explicitly recognize changing LULC by linking mechanistic groundwater flow and travel time models to a historical time series of LULC, creating a land-use legacy map. We then illustrate the utility of legacy maps to explore relationships between dynamic LULC and lake water chemistry. We tested two main concepts about mechanisms linking LULC and lake water chemistry: groundwater pathways are an important mechanism driving legacy effects; and, LULC over multiple spatial scales is more closely related to lake chemistry than LULC over a single spatial scale. We applied statistical models to twelve water chemistry variables, ranging from nutrients to relatively conservative ions, to better understand the roles of biogeochemical reactivity and solubility on connections between LULC and aquatic ecosystem response. Our study illustrates how different areas can have long groundwater pathways that represent different LULC than what can be seen on the landscape today. These groundwater pathways delay the arrival of nutrients and other water quality constituents, thus creating a legacy of historic land uses that eventually reaches surface water. We find that: 1) several water chemistry variables are best fit by legacy LULC while others have a stronger link to current LULC, and 2) single spatial scales of LULC analysis performed worse for most variables. Our novel combination of temporal and spatial scales was the best overall model fit for most variables, including SRP where this model explained 54% of the variation. We show that it is important to explicitly account for temporal and spatial context when linking LULC to ecosystem response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Human Footprint in Mexico: Physical Geography and Historical Legacies

PubMed Central

Ortega-Rubio, Alfredo; Kolb, Melanie; Bezaury Creel, Juan E.

2015-01-01

Using publicly available data on land use and transportation corridors we calculated the human footprint index for the whole of Mexico to identify large-scale spatial patterns in the anthropogenic transformation of the land surface. We developed a map of the human footprint for the whole country and identified the ecological regions that have most transformed by human action. Additionally, we analyzed the extent to which (a) physical geography, expressed spatially in the form of biomes and ecoregions, compared to (b) historical geography, expressed as the spatial distribution of past human settlements, have driven the patterns of human modification of the land. Overall Mexico still has 56% of its land surface with low impact from human activities, but these areas are not evenly distributed. The lowest values are on the arid north and northwest, and the tropical southeast, while the highest values run along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and from there inland along an east-to-west corridor that follows the Mexican transversal volcanic ranges and the associated upland plateau. The distribution of low- and high footprint areas within ecoregions forms a complex mosaic: the generally well-conserved Mexican deserts have some highly transformed agro-industrial areas, while many well-conserved, low footprint areas still persist in the highly-transformed ecoregions of central Mexico. We conclude that the spatial spread of the human footprint in Mexico is both the result of the limitations imposed by physical geography to human development at the biome level, and, within different biomes, of a complex history of past civilizations and technologies, including the 20th Century demographic explosion but also the spatial pattern of ancient settlements that were occupied by the Spanish Colony. PMID:25803839

Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

2017-01-01

Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342

Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

2017-07-01

This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

Integrating paleobiology, archeology, and history to inform biological conservation.

PubMed

Rick, Torben C; Lockwood, Rowan

2013-02-01

The search for novel approaches to establishing ecological baselines (reference conditions) is constrained by the fact that most ecological studies span the past few decades, at most, and investigate ecosystems that have been substantially altered by human activities for decades, centuries, or more. Paleobiology, archeology, and history provide historical ecological context for biological conservation, remediation, and restoration. We argue that linking historical ecology explicitly with conservation can help unify related disciplines of conservation paleobiology, conservation archeobiology, and environmental history. Differences in the spatial and temporal resolution and extent (scale) of prehistoric, historic, and modern ecological data remain obstacles to integrating historical ecology and conservation biology, but the prolonged temporal extents of historical ecological data can help establish more complete baselines for restoration, document a historical range of ecological variability, and assist in determining desired future conditions. We used the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) fishery of the Chesapeake Bay (U.S.A.) to demonstrate the utility of historical ecological data for elucidating oyster conservation and the need for an approach to conservation that transcends disciplinary boundaries. Historical ecological studies from the Chesapeake have documented dramatic declines (as much as 99%) in oyster abundance since the early to mid-1800 s, changes in oyster size in response to different nutrient levels from the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and substantial reductions in oyster accretion rates (from 10 mm/year to effectively 0 mm/year) from the Late Holocene to modern times. Better integration of different historical ecological data sets and increased collaboration between paleobiologists, geologists, archeologists, environmental historians, and ecologists to create standardized research designs and methodologies will help unify prehistoric, historic, and modern time perspectives on biological conservation. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Land Area Change in Coastal Louisiana: A Multidecadal Perspective (from 1956 to 2006)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John A.; Bernier, Julie C.; Morton, Robert A.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) analyzed changes in the configuration of land and water in coastal Louisiana by using a sequential series of 14 data sets summarizing land and water areas from 1956 to 2006. The purpose of this study is to provide a spatially and temporally consistent source of quantitative information on land area across coastal Louisiana, broken into three physiographic provinces (the term 'coastal Louisiana' is used to present data on the collective area). The land-water data sets used in this study are interpreted through spatial analysis and by linear regression analysis. The spatial depictions of land area change reveal a complex and interwoven mosaic of loss and gain patterns caused by natural and human-induced processes operating at varied temporal and spatial scales, resulting in fluctuating contributions to coastal loss. The linear regression analysis provides a robust estimate of recent change trends by comparing land area over time for all data sets from 1985 to 2004 and from 1985 to 2006 by physiographic province across coastal Louisiana. The 1956 to 2006 map showing multidecadal changes, along with the linear regressions of land area change presented in this study, provide a comprehensive and concise presentation of historical trends and rates of land area change in coastal Louisiana. Taking a broad historical view provides an in-depth understanding of land area changes over time. For example, one observation provided by our historical review is that the majority of the widespread, nontransitory land gains depicted on the map over the past 50 years, with the exception of the progradation of the Atchafafalaya River and Wax Lake deltas, are primarily related to sediment placement and landward migration of barrier islands. Another point revealed by our historical approach is that recent land losses caused by hurricanes sometimes commingled with or exacerbated older losses formed during the 1956 to 1978 period. Furthermore, our analyses also show how the immediate impacts of extreme storms can alter the long-term, time-averaged trends of landscape change, thus limiting the range of projections for the future. For this reason, this study does not include trend projections beyond 2015 because of uncertainties related to recovery from the 2005 hurricane season and the potential for other episodic events that could skew future rates of change.

Monitoring the Snowpack in Remote, Ungauged Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dozier, J.; Davis, R. E.; Bair, N.; Rittger, K. E.

2013-12-01

Our objective is to estimate seasonal snow volumes, relative to historical trends and extremes, in snow-dominated mountains that have austere infrastructure, sparse gauging, challenges of accessibility, and emerging or enduring insecurity related to water resources. The world's mountains accumulate substantial snow and, in some areas, produce the bulk of the runoff. In ranges like Afghanistan's Hindu Kush, availability of water resources affects US policy, military and humanitarian operations, and national security. The rugged terrain makes surface measurements difficult and also affects the analysis of remotely sensed data. To judge feasibility, we consider two regions, a validation case and a case representing inaccessible mountains. For the validation case, we use the Sierra Nevada of California, a mountain range of extensive historical study, emerging scientific innovation, and conflicting priorities in managing water for agriculture, urban areas, hydropower, recreation, habitat, and flood control. For the austere regional focus, we use the Hindu Kush, where some of the most persistent drought in the world causes food insecurity and combines with political instability, and occasional flooding. Our approach uses a mix of satellite data and spare modeling to present information essential for planning and decision making, ranging from optimization of proposed infrastructure projects to assessment of water resources stored as snow for seasonal forecasts. We combine optical imagery (MODIS on Terra/Aqua), passive microwave data (SSM/I and AMSR-E), retrospective reconstruction with energy balance calculations, and a snowmelt model to establish the retrospective context. With the passive microwave data we bracket the historical range in snow cover volume. The rank orders of total retrieved volume correlates with reconstructions. From a library of historical reconstruction, we find similar cases that provide insights about snow cover distribution at a finer scale than the passive retrievals. Specifically, we examine the decade-long record from Terra and Aqua to bracket the historical record. In the California Sierra Nevada, surface measurements have sufficient spatial and temporal resolution for us to validate our approach, whereas in the Hindu Kush surface data are sparse and access presents significant difficulties.

Holocene distribution of woody taxa at the westernmost limit of the Circumboreal/Mediterranean boundary: Evidence from wood remains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubiales, Juan M.; Ezquerra, Javier; Muñoz Sobrino, Castor; Génova, María M.; Gil, Luis; Ramil-Rego, Pablo; Gómez Manzaneque, Fernando

2012-02-01

Macrofossils and megafossils of different genera, which were found in twelve localities in the mountains of northwest Iberia, provide spatially precise evidence of their distribution in the region during the Holocene. Macrofossils were recovered from mires, eroded peat bogs and lakes, identified by their wood anatomy and dated using radiocarbon methods. Conifers (Pinus), deciduous trees (Betula, Salix, Quercus) and shrubs (Erica, Fabaceae) were identified. The findings of Pinus gr. sylvestris/nigra have special biogeographical significance. The available palaeoecological data from the Cantabrian Range and nearby mountains (Ancares and Courel) indicate that pines have grown during the Holocene over the highlands of the western part of the Cantabrian Range area as a natural vegetation element. Nevertheless, Pinus sylvestris is the only pine species that is currently present in the Cantabrian Mountains, and its natural distribution area is now limited to a few enclaves. In this study, we provide a number of conclusive findings demonstrating that the past distribution of Pinus gr. sylvestris/nigra in this region suffered an important range contraction during the last two millennia. Historical data also support this idea, as they strongly suggest that this species survived well into the historical period.

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Historical U.S. cropland areas and the potential for bioenergy production on abandoned croplands.

PubMed

Zumkehr, A; Campbell, J E

2013-04-16

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

The market value of cultural heritage in urban areas: an application of spatial hedonic pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazrak, Faroek; Nijkamp, Peter; Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan

2014-01-01

The current literature often values intangible goods like cultural heritage by applying stated preference methods. In recent years, however, the increasing availability of large databases on real estate transactions and listed prices has opened up new research possibilities and has reduced various existing barriers to applications of conventional (spatial) hedonic analysis to the real estate market. The present paper provides one of the first applications using a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the impact of cultural heritage—in particular, listed buildings and historic-cultural sites (or historic landmarks)—on the value of real estate in cities. In addition, this paper suggests a novel way of specifying the spatial weight matrix—only prices of sold houses influence current price—in identifying the spatial dependency effects between sold properties. The empirical application in the present study concerns the Dutch urban area of Zaanstad, a historic area for which over a long period of more than 20 years detailed information on individual dwellings, and their market prices are available in a GIS context. In this paper, the effect of cultural heritage is analysed in three complementary ways. First, we measure the effect of a listed building on its market price in the relevant area concerned. Secondly, we investigate the value that listed heritage has on nearby property. And finally, we estimate the effect of historic-cultural sites on real estate prices. We find that, to purchase a listed building, buyers are willing to pay an additional 26.9 %, while surrounding houses are worth an extra 0.28 % for each additional listed building within a 50-m radius. Houses sold within a conservation area appear to gain a premium of 26.4 % which confirms the existence of a `historic ensemble' effect.

Teaching Geography and History through GIS: Application on Greek cultural sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skentos, Athanasios; Pavlopoulos, Kosmas; Galani, Apostolia; Theodorakopoulou, Katerina; Kritikos, Giorgos

2013-04-01

This study deals with the presentation of cultural succession in Greek space-time through a GIS application, associated with core concepts of geographic and historical education. Through the specific application students will be able to develop five distinct skills: sense of time-scale, historical and geographic comprehension, spatial analysis and interpretation, ability to perform geo-historical research, and procedure of geo-historical decision-making. The methodology is based on the calibration of a set of criteria for each cultural site that covers the topics of economy, geomorphology, society, religion, art and science. Further analysis of these data forms a geodatabase. In addition, palaeogeographic and historical maps of the cultural sites derived by the geodatabase provide information about temporal and spatial changes. As result, students will be able to develop a multidimensional and interdisciplinary approach, in order to reconstruct the evolution of the site.

Historical Roots of the Spatial, Temporal, and Diversity Scales of Agricultural Decision-Making in Sierra de Santa Marta, Los Tuxtlas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrete-Yankelevich, Simoneta; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Blanco-Rosas, José Luis; Barois, Isabelle

2013-07-01

Land degradation is a serious problem in tropical mountainous areas. Market prices, technological development, and population growth are often invoked as the prime causes. Using historical agrarian documents, literature sources, and historical population data, we (1) provide quantitative and qualitative evidence that the land degradation present at Sierra de Santa Marta (Los Tuxtlas, Mexico) has involved a historical reduction in the temporal, spatial, and diversity scales, in which individual farmers make management decisions, and has resulted in decreased maize productivity; and (2) analyze how these three scalar changes can be linked to policy, population growth, and agrarian history. We conclude that the historical reduction in the scales of land use decision-making and practices constitutes a present threat to indigenous agricultural heritage. The long-term viability of agriculture requires that initiatives consider incentives for co-responsibility with an initial focus on self-sufficiency.

Historical roots of the spatial, temporal, and diversity scales of agricultural decision-making in sierra de santa marta, los tuxtlas.

PubMed

Negrete-Yankelevich, Simoneta; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Blanco-Rosas, José Luis; Barois, Isabelle

2013-07-01

Land degradation is a serious problem in tropical mountainous areas. Market prices, technological development, and population growth are often invoked as the prime causes. Using historical agrarian documents, literature sources, and historical population data, we (1) provide quantitative and qualitative evidence that the land degradation present at Sierra de Santa Marta (Los Tuxtlas, Mexico) has involved a historical reduction in the temporal, spatial, and diversity scales, in which individual farmers make management decisions, and has resulted in decreased maize productivity; and (2) analyze how these three scalar changes can be linked to policy, population growth, and agrarian history. We conclude that the historical reduction in the scales of land use decision-making and practices constitutes a present threat to indigenous agricultural heritage. The long-term viability of agriculture requires that initiatives consider incentives for co-responsibility with an initial focus on self-sufficiency.

Ontological Standardization for Historical Map Collections: Studying the Greek Borderlines of 1881

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gkadolou, E.; Tomai, E.; Stefanakis, E.; Kritikos, G.

2012-07-01

Historical maps deliver valuable historical information which is applicable in several domains while they document the spatiotemporal evolution of the geographical entities that are depicted therein. In order to use the historical cartographic information effectively, the maps' semantic documentation becomes a necessity for restoring any semantic ambiguities and structuring the relationship between historical and current geographical space. This paper examines cartographic ontologies as a proposed methodology and presents the first outcomes of the methodology applied for the historical map series «Carte de la nouvelle frontière Turco-Grecque» that sets the borderlines between Greece and Ottoman Empire in 1881. The map entities were modelled and compared to the current ones so as to record the changes in their spatial and thematic attributes and an ontology was developed in Protégé OWL Editor 3.4.4 for the attributes that thoroughly define a historical map and the digitised spatial entities. Special focus was given on the Greek borderline and the changes that it caused to other geographic entities.

Influence of landscape structure, topography, and forest type on spatial variation in historical fire regimes, central Oregon, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merschel, Andrew; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Spies, Thomas A; Loehman, Rachel A.

2018-01-01

Context In the interior Northwest, debate over restoring mixed-conifer forests after a century of fire exclusion is hampered by poor understanding of the pattern and causes of spatial variation in historical fire regimes. Objectives To identify the roles of topography, landscape structure, and forest type in driving spatial variation in historical fire regimes in mixed-conifer forests of central Oregon. Methods We used tree rings to reconstruct multicentury fire and forest histories at 105 plots over 10,393 ha. We classified fire regimes into four types and assessed whether they varied with topography, the location of fuel-limited pumice basins that inhibit fire spread, and an updated classification of forest type. Results We identified four fire-regime types and six forest types. Although surface fires were frequent and often extensive, severe fires were rare in all four types. Fire regimes varied with some aspects of topography (elevation), but not others (slope or aspect) and with the distribution of pumice basins. Fire regimes did not strictly co-vary with mixed-conifer forest types. Conclusions Our work reveals the persistent influence of landscape structure on spatial variation in historical fire regimes and can help inform discussions about appropriate restoration of fire-excluded forests in the interior Northwest. Where the goal is to restore historical fire regimes at landscape scales, managers may want to consider the influence of topoedaphic and vegetation patch types that could affect fire spread and ignition frequency.

Investigation of spatial and historical variations of air pollution around an industrial region using trace and macro elements in tree components.

PubMed

Odabasi, Mustafa; Tolunay, Doganay; Kara, Melik; Ozgunerge Falay, Ezgi; Tuna, Gizem; Altiok, Hasan; Dumanoglu, Yetkin; Bayram, Abdurrahman; Elbir, Tolga

2016-04-15

Several trace and macro elements (n=48) were measured in pine needle, branch, bark, tree ring, litter, and soil samples collected at 27 sites (21 industrial, 6 background) to investigate their spatial and historical variation in Aliaga industrial region in Turkey. Concentrations generally decreased with distance from the sources and the lowest ones were measured at background sites far from major sources. Spatial distribution of anthropogenic trace elements indicated that their major sources in the region are the iron-steel plants, ship-breaking activities and the petroleum refinery. Patterns of 40 elements that were detected in most of the samples were also evaluated to assess their suitability for investigation of historical variations. Observed increasing trends of several trace and macro elements (As, Cr, Fe, Mo, Ni, V, Cu, Pb, Sb, Sn, and Hg) in the tree-ring samples were representative for the variations in anthropogenic emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations in Aliaga region. It was shown that lanthanides (La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Gd, Dy, Er, Yb) could also be used for the investigation of historical variations due to specific industrial emissions (i.e., petroleum refining). Results of the present study showed that tree components, litter, and soil could be used to determine the spatial variations of atmospheric pollution in a region while tree rings could be used to assess the historical variations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved statistical method for temperature and salinity quality control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourrion, Jérôme; Szekely, Tanguy

2017-04-01

Climate research and Ocean monitoring benefit from the continuous development of global in-situ hydrographic networks in the last decades. Apart from the increasing volume of observations available on a large range of temporal and spatial scales, a critical aspect concerns the ability to constantly improve the quality of the datasets. In the context of the Coriolis Dataset for ReAnalysis (CORA) version 4.2, a new quality control method based on a local comparison to historical extreme values ever observed is developed, implemented and validated. Temperature, salinity and potential density validity intervals are directly estimated from minimum and maximum values from an historical reference dataset, rather than from traditional mean and standard deviation estimates. Such an approach avoids strong statistical assumptions on the data distributions such as unimodality, absence of skewness and spatially homogeneous kurtosis. As a new feature, it also allows addressing simultaneously the two main objectives of an automatic quality control strategy, i.e. maximizing the number of good detections while minimizing the number of false alarms. The reference dataset is presently built from the fusion of 1) all ARGO profiles up to late 2015, 2) 3 historical CTD datasets and 3) the Sea Mammals CTD profiles from the MEOP database. All datasets are extensively and manually quality controlled. In this communication, the latest method validation results are also presented. The method has already been implemented in the latest version of the delayed-time CMEMS in-situ dataset and will be deployed soon in the equivalent near-real time products.

Improved Statistical Method For Hydrographic Climatic Records Quality Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourrion, J.; Szekely, T.

2016-02-01

Climate research benefits from the continuous development of global in-situ hydrographic networks in the last decades. Apart from the increasing volume of observations available on a large range of temporal and spatial scales, a critical aspect concerns the ability to constantly improve the quality of the datasets. In the context of the Coriolis Dataset for ReAnalysis (CORA) version 4.2, a new quality control method based on a local comparison to historical extreme values ever observed is developed, implemented and validated. Temperature, salinity and potential density validity intervals are directly estimated from minimum and maximum values from an historical reference dataset, rather than from traditional mean and standard deviation estimates. Such an approach avoids strong statistical assumptions on the data distributions such as unimodality, absence of skewness and spatially homogeneous kurtosis. As a new feature, it also allows addressing simultaneously the two main objectives of a quality control strategy, i.e. maximizing the number of good detections while minimizing the number of false alarms. The reference dataset is presently built from the fusion of 1) all ARGO profiles up to early 2014, 2) 3 historical CTD datasets and 3) the Sea Mammals CTD profiles from the MEOP database. All datasets are extensively and manually quality controlled. In this communication, the latest method validation results are also presented. The method has been implemented in the latest version of the CORA dataset and will benefit to the next version of the Copernicus CMEMS dataset.

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers. ?? Inter-Research 2004.

Spatiotemporal estimation of historical PM2.5 concentrations using PM10, meteorological variables, and spatial effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lianfa; Wu, Anna H.; Cheng, Iona; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Wu, Jun

2017-10-01

Monitoring of fine particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) started from 1999 in the US and even later in many other countries. The lack of historical PM2.5 data limits epidemiological studies of long-term exposure of PM2.5 and health outcomes such as cancer. In this study, we aimed to design a flexible approach to reliably estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations by incorporating spatial effect and the measurements of existing co-pollutants such as particulate matter with diameter <10 μm (PM10) and meteorological variables. Monitoring data of PM10, PM2.5, and meteorological variables covering the entire state of California were obtained from 1999 through 2013. We developed a spatiotemporal model that quantified non-linear associations between PM2.5 concentrations and the following predictor variables: spatiotemporal factors (PM10 and meteorological variables), spatial factors (land-use patterns, traffic, elevation, distance to shorelines, and spatial autocorrelation), and season. Our model accounted for regional-(county) scale spatial autocorrelation, using spatial weight matrix, and local-scale spatiotemporal variability, using local covariates in additive non-linear model. The spatiotemporal model was evaluated, using leaving-one-site-month-out cross validation. Our final daily model had an R2 of 0.81, with PM10, meteorological variables, and spatial autocorrelation, explaining 55%, 10%, and 10% of the variance in PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. The model had a cross-validation R2 of 0.83 for monthly PM2.5 concentrations (N = 8170) and 0.79 for daily PM2.5 concentrations (N = 51,421) with few extreme values in prediction. Further, the incorporation of spatial effects reduced bias in predictions. Our approach achieved a cross validation R2 of 0.61 for the daily model when PM10 was replaced by total suspended particulate. Our model can robustly estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations in California when PM2.5 measurements were not available.

HIS Design: Big Data that Supports Hydrologic Modeling from Continental to Hillslope Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, T. C.; Deemy, J. B.; Younger, S. E.; Kirk, S. E.; Brockman, L. E.

2016-12-01

Analogous to Google Maps, hydrologic data, information, and knowledge resolve differently depending upon the spatial and temporal scales of interest. We show how a multi-scale hydrologic information system (HIS) can be designed and populated for a broad range of spatial (e.g., hillslope, local, regional, continental) and temporal (e.g., current, recent, historic, geologic) scales. Surface and subsurface hydrologic and transport processes are assumed to be scale-dependent, requiring unique governing equations and parameters at each scale. This robust and flexible framework is designed to meet the inventory, monitoring, and management needs of multiple federal agencies (i.e., Forest Service, National Park Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Reserves). Multi-scale HIS examples are provided using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for the Southeastern US.

Representing Historical Knowledge in Geographic Information Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grossner, Karl Eric

2010-01-01

A growing number of historical scholars in social science and humanities fields are using geographic information systems (GIS) to help investigate spatial questions and map their findings. The nature of historical data and historiographic practices present several challenges in using GIS that have been addressed only partially to date. For…

Incorporating historical ecosystem diversity into conservation planning efforts in grass and shrub ecosystems

Treesearch

Amy C. Ganguli; Johathan B. Haufler; Carolyn A. Mehl; Jimmie D. Chew

2011-01-01

Understanding historical ecosystem diversity and wildlife habitat quality can provide a useful reference for managing and restoring rangeland ecosystems. We characterized historical ecosystem diversity using available empirical data, expert opinion, and the spatially explicit vegetation dynamics model SIMPPLLE (SIMulating Vegetative Patterns and Processes at Landscape...

Evolutionary history of Lissotriton helveticus: multilocus assessment of ancestral vs. recent colonization of the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Recuero, Ernesto; García-París, Mario

2011-07-01

The Pleistocene was characterized by climatic changes that greatly altered the distribution of organisms. Population extinctions, bottlenecks, isolation, range expansions and contractions were often associated with glaciations, leaving signatures in the spatial patterns of genetic diversity across species. Lissotriton helveticus belongs to a Pan-European lineage of newts that were strongly affected by glaciations and represent an excellent model to analyse the effect of generalized climatic changes in phylogeographic patterns. We studied the genetic diversity of the species using data from two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes analyzed in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework to investigate the historical processes shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity. Mitochondrial haplotypes cluster in four different groups present in the Iberian Peninsula and of Pleistocene origin, probably by allopatric fragmentation. Nuclear genes present no obvious geographic structure patterns, suggesting gene flow and generalized incomplete lineage sorting. Populations north of the Pyrenees are closely related to those from northeastern Iberia, suggesting recent range expansion from this region. Historical demographic analyses indicate a demographic expansion starting about 100,000years ago and more recent population declines. Compared to other Lissotriton species, L. helveticus includes only relatively young genetic lineages, suggesting a Central European pre-Pleistocene distribution followed by complete extirpation of the species during glaciations in that area. Historical demographic trends in the Iberian Peninsula are reversed with respect to the more Mediterranean species Lissotriton boscai, indicating different responses of both species to climate changes. Diversity patterns among Lissotriton species seem to be defined by four main factors: ancestral distributions, colonization capabilities, interactions with other species and effective population sizes. Differences in these factors define two types of species, referred to as "R" (refugia) and "S" (sanctuaries) that explain part of the diversity in patterns of genetic diversity created by glaciations in Western Europe. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carnivore re-colonisation: Reality, possibility and a non-equilibrium century for grizzly bears in the southern Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pyare, Sanjay; Cain, S.; Moody, D.; Schwartz, C.; Berger, J.

2004-01-01

Most large native carnivores have experienced range contractions due to conflicts with humans, although neither rates of spatial collapse nor expansion have been well characterised. In North America, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) once ranged from Mexico northward to Alaska, however its range in the continental USA has been reduced by 95-98%. Under the U. S. Endangered Species Act, the Yellowstone grizzly bear population has re-colonised habitats outside Yellowstone National Park. We analysed historical and current records, including data on radio-collared bears, (1) to evaluate changes in grizzly bear distribution in the southern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) over a 100-year period, (2) to utilise historical rates of re-colonisation to project future expansion trends and (3) to evaluate the reality of future expansion based on human limitations and land use. Analysis of distribution in 20-year increments reflects range reduction from south to north (1900-1940) and expansion to the south (1940-2000). Expansion was exponential and the area occupied by grizzly bears doubled approximately every 20 years. A complementary analysis of bear occurrence in Grand Teton National Park also suggests an unprecedented period of rapid expansion during the last 20-30 years. The grizzly bear population currently has re-occupied about 50% of the southern GYE. Based on assumptions of continued protection and ecological stasis, our model suggests total occupancy in 25 years. Alternatively, extrapolation of linear expansion rates from the period prior to protection suggests total occupancy could take > 100 years. Analyses of historical trends can be useful as a restoration tool because they enable a framework and timeline to be constructed to pre-emptively address the social challenges affecting future carnivore recovery. ?? 2004 The Zoological Society of London.

Unexpectedly Low Rangewide Population Genetic Structure of the Imperiled Eastern Box Turtle Terrapene c. carolina

PubMed Central

Kimble, Steven J. A.; Rhodes Jr., O. E.; Williams, Rod N.

2014-01-01

Rangewide studies of genetic parameters can elucidate patterns and processes that operate only over large geographic scales. Herein, we present a rangewide population genetic assessment of the eastern box turtle Terrapene c. carolina, a species that is in steep decline across its range. To inform conservation planning for this species, we address the hypothesis that disruptions to demographic and movement parameters associated with the decline of the eastern box turtle has resulted in distinctive genetic signatures in the form of low genetic diversity, high population structuring, and decreased gene flow. We used microsatellite genotype data from (n = 799) individuals from across the species range to perform two Bayesian population assignment approaches, two methods for comparing historical and contemporary migration among populations, an evaluation of isolation by distance, and a method for detecting barriers to gene flow. Both Bayesian methods of population assignment indicated that there are two populations rangewide, both of which have maintained high levels of genetic diversity (HO = 0.756). Evidence of isolation by distance was detected in this species at a spatial scale of 300 – 500 km, and the Appalachian Mountains were identified as the primary barrier to gene flow across the species range. We also found evidence for historical but not contemporary migration between populations. Our prediction of many, highly structured populations across the range was not supported. This may point to cryptic contemporary gene flow, which might in turn be explained by the presence of rare transients in populations. However these data may be influenced by historical signatures of genetic connectivity because individuals of this species can be long-lived. PMID:24647580

Spatial Correlations of Malaria Incidence Hotspots with Environmental Factors in Assam, North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handique, Bijoy K.; Khan, Siraj A.; Dutta, Prafulla; Nath, Manash J.; Qadir, Abdul; Raju, P. L. N.

2016-06-01

Malaria is endemic and a major public health problem in north east (NE) region of India and contributes about 8-12 % of India's malaria positives cases. Historical morbidity pattern of malaria in terms of API (Annual Parasite Incidence) in the state of Assam has been used for delineating the malaria incidence hotspots at health sub centre (HSC) level. Strong spatial autocorrelation (p < 0.01) among the HSCs have been observed in terms of API (Annual Parasite Incidence). Malaria incidence hot spots in the state could be identified based on General G statistics and tested for statistical significance. Spatial correlation of malaria incidence hotspots with physiographic and climatic parameters across 6 agro-climatic zones of the state reveals the types of land cover pattern and the range of elevation contributing to the malaria outbreaks. Analysis shows that villages under malaria hotspots are having more agricultural land, evergreen/semi-evergreen forests with abundant waterbodies. Statistical and spatial analyses of malaria incidence showed a significant positive correlation with malaria incidence hotspots and the elevation (p < 0.05) with villages under malaria hotspots are having average elevation ranging between 17 to 240 MSL. This conforms to the characteristics of two dominant mosquito species in the state Anopheles minimus and An. baimai that prefers the habitat of slow flowing streams in the foot hills and in forest ecosystems respectively.

Global magnetic field modelling with archeomagnetic and historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senftleben, Robin; Korte, Monika; Finlay, Chris

2016-04-01

Global geomagnetic field models on different time scales are useful tools to study the field evolution and gain insights into underlying processes in the Earth's outer core. However, historical full vector field data are only available from 1840 on, and millennial scale field models based on archeo- and paleomagnetic data have, in general, rather low temporal and spatial resolution. This study complements the high resolution data of historical sources with archeomagnetic data in order to expand the time range back to 1000 AD and add total magnetic field informations in the times from 1590 AD to 1840 AD. This makes it possible to constrain the axial dipole moment with actual observations unlike the gufm1 model, which does so through linear extrapolation (Jackson et al. 2000). The resulting model is compared against new paleomagnetic data from the island Fogo of Cap Verde. The age of the sampled volcanic flows spans between 1600 AD and 1900 AD. The final objective of this study is to use this model to uncover details of the decaying behaviour of the dipole moment and the development of the South Atlantic Anomaly.

Structure from Motion vs. the Kinect: Comparisons of River Field Measurements at the 10-2 to 102 meter Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonstad, M. A.; Dietrich, J. T.

2014-12-01

At the very smallest spatial scales of fluvial field analysis, measurements made historically in situ are often now supplemented, or even replaced by, remote sensing methods. This is particularly true in the case of topographic and particle size measurement. In the field, the scales of in situ observation usually range from millimeters up to hundreds of meters. Two recent approaches for remote mapping of river environments at the scales of historical in situ observations are (1) camera-based structure from motion (SfM), and (2) active patterned-light measurement with devices such as the Kinect. Even if only carried by hand, these two approaches can produce topographic datasets over three to four orders of magnitude of spatial scale. Which approach is most useful? Previous studies have demonstrated that both SfM and the Kinect are precise and accurate over in situ field measurement scales; we instead turn to alternate comparative metrics to help determine which tools might be best for our river measurement tasks. These metrics might include (1) the ease of field use, (2) which general environments are or are not amenable to measurement, (3) robustness to changing environmental conditions, (4) ease of data processing, and (5) cost. We test these metrics in a variety of bar-scale fluvial field environments, including a large-river cobble bar, a sand-bedded river point bar, and a complex mountain stream bar. The structure from motion approach is field-equipment inexpensive, is viable over a wide range of environmental conditions, and is highly spatially scalable. The approach requires some type of spatial referencing to make the data useful. The Kinect has the advantages of an almost real-time display of collected data, so problems can be detected quickly, being fast and easy to use, and the data are collected with arbitrary but metric coordinates, so absolute referencing isn't needed to use the data for many problems. It has the disadvantages of its light field generally being unable to penetrate water surfaces, becoming unusable in strong sunlight, and providing so much data as to be sometimes unwieldy in the data processing stage.

Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Feng; Ghimire, Bardan; Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Schaaf, Crystal

2017-01-01

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

Habitat history improves prediction of biodiversity in rainforest fauna

PubMed Central

Graham, Catherine H.; Moritz, Craig; Williams, Stephen E.

2006-01-01

Patterns of biological diversity should be interpreted in light of both contemporary and historical influences; however, to date, most attempts to explain diversity patterns have largely ignored history or have been unable to quantify the influence of historical processes. The historical effects on patterns of diversity have been hypothesized to be most important for taxonomic groups with poor dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative stability of rainforests over the late Quaternary period by modeling rainforest expansion and contraction in 21 biogeographic subregions in northeast Australia across four time periods. We demonstrate that historical habitat stability can be as important, and in endemic low-dispersal taxa even more important, than current habitat area in explaining spatial patterns of species richness. In contrast, patterns of endemic species richness for taxa with high dispersal capacity are best predicted by using current environmental parameters. We also show that contemporary patterns of species turnover across the region are best explained by historical patterns of habitat connectivity. These results clearly demonstrate that spatially explicit analyses of the historical processes of persistence and colonization are both effective and necessary for understanding observed patterns of biodiversity. PMID:16407139

Complementarity of Historic Building Information Modelling and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Koehl, M.; Grussenmeyer, P.; Macher, H.

2016-06-01

In this paper, we discuss the potential of integrating both semantically rich models from Building Information Modelling (BIM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to build the detailed 3D historic model. BIM contributes to the creation of a digital representation having all physical and functional building characteristics in several dimensions, as e.g. XYZ (3D), time and non-architectural information that are necessary for construction and management of buildings. GIS has potential in handling and managing spatial data especially exploring spatial relationships and is widely used in urban modelling. However, when considering heritage modelling, the specificity of irregular historical components makes it problematic to create the enriched model according to its complex architectural elements obtained from point clouds. Therefore, some open issues limiting the historic building 3D modelling will be discussed in this paper: how to deal with the complex elements composing historic buildings in BIM and GIS environment, how to build the enriched historic model, and why to construct different levels of details? By solving these problems, conceptualization, documentation and analysis of enriched Historic Building Information Modelling are developed and compared to traditional 3D models aimed primarily for visualization.

Isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies significantly impacts oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, Anand; Pradal, Marie-Aude; Abernathey, Ryan

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake varies across Earth System Models for reasons that have remained obscure. When varied within a single model, the lateral eddy mixing coefficient ARedi produces a range of uptake similar to the modeled range. The highest uptake, resulting from a simulation with a constant ARedi of 2400 m2/s, simulates 15% more historical carbon uptake than a model with ARedi = 400 m2/s. A sudden doubling in carbon dioxide produces a 21% range in carbon uptake across the models. Two spatially dependent representations of ARedi produce uptake that lies in the middle of the range of constant values despite predicting very large values in the subtropical gyres. One-dimensional diffusive models of the type used for integrated assessments can be fit to the simulations, with ARedi accounting for a substantial fraction of the effective vertical diffusion. Such models, however, mask significant regional changes in stratification and biological carbon storage.

Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

PubMed Central

Amano, Tatsuya; Freckleton, Robert P.; Queenborough, Simon A.; Doxford, Simon W.; Smithers, Richard J.; Sparks, Tim H.; Sutherland, William J.

2014-01-01

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology. PMID:24478304

Networks, narratives and territory in anthropological race classification: towards a more comprehensive historical geography of Europe's culture.

PubMed

McMahon, Richard

2011-01-01

This article aims to integrate discourse analysis of politically instrumental imagined identity geographies with the relational and territorial geography of the communities of praxis and interpretation that produce them. My case study is the international community of nationalist scientists who classified Europe's biological races in the 1820s-1940s. I draw on network analysis, relational geography, historical sociology and the historical turn to problematize empirically how spatial patterns of this community's shifting disciplinary and political coalitions, communication networks and power relations emerged, were structured, persisted, changed, interacted and disappeared. I focus especially on core-periphery relations. I argue that if local historical spatial patterns affect those of later phenomena, geographies like that of European integration should be understood in the context of Europe's complex historical cultural geography. Unlike discourse deconstruction alone, this complementary relational de-essentialization of geography can identify large-scale, enduring associations of cultural patterns as well as cultural flux and ambiguity.

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

Historical Arctic Logbooks Provide Insights into Past Diets and Climatic Responses of Cod

PubMed Central

Townhill, Bryony L.; Maxwell, David; Engelhard, Georg H.; Simpson, Stephen D.; Pinnegar, John K.

2015-01-01

Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) stocks in the Barents Sea are currently at levels not seen since the 1950s. Causes for the population increase last century, and understanding of whether such large numbers will be maintained in the future, are unclear. To explore this, we digitised and interrogated historical cod catch and diet datasets from the Barents Sea. Seventeen years of catch data and 12 years of prey data spanning 1930–1959 cover unexplored spatial and temporal ranges, and importantly capture the end of a previous warm period, when temperatures were similar to those currently being experienced. This study aimed to evaluate cod catch per unit effort and prey frequency in relation to spatial, temporal and environmental variables. There was substantial spatio-temporal heterogeneity in catches through the time series. The highest catches were generally in the 1930s and 1940s, although at some localities more cod were recorded late in the 1950s. Generalized Additive Models showed that environmental, spatial and temporal variables are all valuable descriptors of cod catches, with the highest occurring from 15–45°E longitude and 73–77°N latitude, at bottom temperatures between 2 and 4°C and at depths between 150 and 250 m. Cod diets were highly variable during the study period, with frequent changes in the relative frequencies of different prey species, particularly Mallotus villosus (capelin). Environmental variables were particularly good at describing the importance of capelin and Clupea harengus (herring) in the diet. These new analyses support existing knowledge about how the ecology of the region is controlled by climatic variability. When viewed in combination with more recent data, these historical relationships will be valuable in forecasting the future of Barents Sea fisheries, and in understanding how environments and ecosystems may respond. PMID:26331271

New insights on historic droughts in the UK: Analysis of 200 river flow reconstructions for 1890-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parry, Simon; Barker, Lucy; Hannaford, Jamie; Prudhomme, Christel; Smith, Katie; Svensson, Cecilia; Tanguy, Maliko

2017-04-01

Hydrological droughts of the last 50 years in the UK have been well characterised owing to a relatively dense hydrometric network. Prior to this, observed river flow data were generally limited in their spatial coverage and often subject to considerable uncertainty. Whilst qualitative records indicate the occurrence of severe droughts in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, including scenarios which may cause substantial impacts to contemporary water supply systems, existing observations are not sufficient to describe their spatio-temporal characteristics. As such, insights on drought in the UK are constrained and a range of stakeholders including water companies and regulators would benefit from a more thorough assessment of historic drought characteristics and their variability. The multi-disciplinary Historic Droughts project aims to rigorously characterise droughts in the UK to inform improved drought management and communication. Driven by rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that have been extended using recovered records, lumped catchment hydrological models are used to reconstruct daily river flows from 1890 to 2015 for more than 200 catchments across the UK. The reconstructions are derived within a state-of-the-art modelling framework which allows a comprehensive assessment of model, structure and parameter uncertainty. Standardised and threshold-based indicators are applied to the river flow reconstructions to identify and characterise hydrological drought events. The reconstructions are most beneficial in comprehensively describing well known but poorly quantified late 19th and early 20th century droughts, placing the spatial and temporal footprint of these often extreme events within the context of modern episodes for the first time. Oscillations between drought-rich and drought-poor periods are shown not to be limited to the recent observational past, providing an increased sample size of events against which to test a range of airflow and oceanic index patterns as potential drivers of streamflow drought. The quantification of changes over time in both the mean and the variability of drought frequency, duration, severity and termination benefits from the temporal extent of the river flow reconstructions, assessing the temporal variability of drought over more prolonged timescales than previous drought trend studies. When considered alongside complimentary reconstructions of rainfall and groundwater levels, the characteristics of propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought are analysed to an extent not previously possible. The unprecedented spatio-temporal coverage of the river flow reconstructions has yielded important new insights on historic droughts in the UK. It is hoped that this more robust assessment of the historical variability of hydrological drought in the UK will underpin enhanced drought planning and management.

Vulnerabilities of ecosystems across U.S. National Parks to biome shifts, wildfire changes, and invasive species due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, P.; Eigenbrod, F.; Early, R.; Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Williams, J. W.

2016-12-01

U.S. national parks conserve globally unique biodiversity. Yet, historical impacts of climate change and future vulnerabilities threaten species and ecosystems across this system of protected areas. Spatial analyses of historical climate and downscaled future climate projections show climate trends across the system. Spatial analyses of vegetation and wildfire (using a dynamic global vegetation model), habitat fragmentation (using remote sensing-derived land cover), and invasive species introduction and establishment show patterns of future vulnerability across the 50 U.S. states and 412 U.S. national parks. Results reveal high historical and projected temperature increases and precipitation changes, projected increases of wildfire across western U.S. national parks, high vulnerability to biome shifts and habitat fragmentation of up to one-third of National Park System area, and high vulnerability to invasive species of one-ninth of National Park System area. Ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Range, desert Southwest, and Laurentian Great Lakes are highly vulnerable to upslope and poleward shifts of the North America sequence of biomes: temperate shrubland - temperate broadleaf forest - temperate mixed forest - temperate conifer forest - subalpine and boreal forest - alpine and tundra. These areas include Grand Canyon, Mount Rainier, and Yosemite National Parks. The southwestern U.S., including Grand Canyon and Sequoia National Parks, is vulnerable to increases in wildfire. The eastern and midwestern U.S., including Great Smokey Mountains and Voyageurs National Parks, are highly vulnerable to invasive species. These results identify vulnerable areas and potential refugia to help prioritize areas for future natural resource management actions and biodiversity conservation in U.S. national parks.

Historic and recent patterns in dissolved oxygen within the Yaquina Estuary (Oregon, USA): Importance of anthropogenic activities and oceanic conditions

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial and temporal patterns of dissolved oxygen (DO) in Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA) are examined using historic and recent data. There was a significant increasing trend in DO in the upstream portion of the estuary during the years 1960–1985. Historically, minimum dry season ...

Spatial cyberinfrastructures, ontologies, and the humanities.

PubMed

Sieber, Renee E; Wellen, Christopher C; Jin, Yuan

2011-04-05

We report on research into building a cyberinfrastructure for Chinese biographical and geographic data. Our cyberinfrastructure contains (i) the McGill-Harvard-Yenching Library Ming Qing Women's Writings database (MQWW), the only online database on historical Chinese women's writings, (ii) the China Biographical Database, the authority for Chinese historical people, and (iii) the China Historical Geographical Information System, one of the first historical geographic information systems. Key to this integration is that linked databases retain separate identities as bases of knowledge, while they possess sufficient semantic interoperability to allow for multidatabase concepts and to support cross-database queries on an ad hoc basis. Computational ontologies create underlying semantics for database access. This paper focuses on the spatial component in a humanities cyberinfrastructure, which includes issues of conflicting data, heterogeneous data models, disambiguation, and geographic scale. First, we describe the methodology for integrating the databases. Then we detail the system architecture, which includes a tier of ontologies and schema. We describe the user interface and applications that allow for cross-database queries. For instance, users should be able to analyze the data, examine hypotheses on spatial and temporal relationships, and generate historical maps with datasets from MQWW for research, teaching, and publication on Chinese women writers, their familial relations, publishing venues, and the literary and social communities. Last, we discuss the social side of cyberinfrastructure development, as people are considered to be as critical as the technical components for its success.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Long-term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s-2070s).

PubMed

Yang, Li; Zhang, Chao; Chen, Minhao; Li, Jingxin; Yang, Lei; Huo, Zhaomin; Ahmad, Shahid; Luan, Xiaofeng

2018-04-01

Long-term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long-term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black-billed capercaillie ( Tetrao urogalloides ) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long-term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64-90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black-billed capercaillie.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: Sensitivity of pan-Arctic carbon storage to temporal and spatial variation in climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Clein, Joy S.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Meier, R.A.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Serreze, Mark C.

2000-01-01

Historical and projected climate trends for high latitudes show substantial temporal and spatial variability. To identify uncertainties in simulating carbon (C) dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra, we compare the historical and projected responses of tundra C storage from 1921 to 2100 between simulations by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the pan-Arctic and the Kuparuk River Basin, which was the focus of an integrated study of C dynamics from 1994 to 1996. In the historical period from 1921 to 1994, the responses of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (RH) simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic are correlated with the same factors; NPP is positively correlated with net nitrogen mineralization (NMIN) and RH is negatively correlated with mean annual soil moisture. In comparison to the historical period, the spatially aggregated responses of NPP and RH for the Kuparuk River Basin and the pan-Arctic in our simulations for the projected period have different sensitivities to temperature, soil moisture and NMIN. In addition to being sensitive to soil moisture during the projected period, RH is also sensitive to temperature and there is a significant correlation between RH and NMIN. We interpret the increases in NPP during the projected period as being driven primarily by increases in NMIN, and that the correlation between NPP and temperature in the projected period is a result primarily of the causal linkage between temperature, RH, and NMIN. Although similar factors appear to be controlling simulated regional-and biome-scale C dynamics, simulated C dynamics at the two scales differ in magnitude with higher increases in C storage simulated for the Kuparuk River Basin than for the pan-Arctic at the end of the historical period and throughout the projected period. Also, the results of the simulations indicate that responses of C storage show different climate sensitivities at regional and pan-Arctic spatial scales and that these sensitivities change across the temporal scope of the simulations. The results of the TEM simulations indicate that the scaling of C dynamics to a region of arctic tundra may not represent C dynamics of pan-Arctic tundra because of the limited spatial variation in climate and vegetation within a region relative to the pan-Arctic. For reducing uncertainties, our analyses highlight the importance of incorporating the understanding gained from process-level studies of C dynamics in a region of arctic tundra into process-based models that simulate C dynamics in a spatially explicit fashion across the spatial domain of pan-Arctic tundra. Also, efforts to improve gridded datasets of historical climate for the pan-Arctic would advance the ability to assess the responses of C dynamics for pan-Arctic tundra in a more realistic fashion. A major challenge will be to incorporate topographic controls over soil moisture in assessing the response of C storage for pan-Arctic tundra.

The spatially resolved characterisation of Egyptian blue, Han blue and Han purple by photo-induced luminescence digital imaging.

PubMed

Verri, G

2009-06-01

The photo-induced luminescence properties of Egyptian blue, Han blue and Han purple were investigated by means of near-infrared digital imaging. These pigments emit infrared radiation when excited in the visible range. The emission can be recorded by means of a modified commercial digital camera equipped with suitable glass filters. A variety of visible light sources were investigated to test their ability to excite luminescence in the pigments. Light-emitting diodes, which do not emit stray infrared radiation, proved an excellent source for the excitation of luminescence in all three compounds. In general, the use of visible radiation emitters with low emission in the infrared range allowed the presence of the pigments to be determined and their distribution to be spatially resolved. This qualitative imaging technique can be easily applied in situ for a rapid characterisation of materials. The results were compared to those for Egyptian green and for historical and modern blue pigments. Examples of the application of the technique on polychrome works of art are presented.

Fuzzy Similarity and Fuzzy Inclusion Measures in Polyline Matching: A Case Study of Potential Streams Identification for Archaeological Modelling in GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ďuračiová, Renata; Rášová, Alexandra; Lieskovský, Tibor

2017-12-01

When combining spatial data from various sources, it is often important to determine similarity or identity of spatial objects. Besides the differences in geometry, representations of spatial objects are inevitably more or less uncertain. Fuzzy set theory can be used to address both modelling of the spatial objects uncertainty and determining the identity, similarity, and inclusion of two sets as fuzzy identity, fuzzy similarity, and fuzzy inclusion. In this paper, we propose to use fuzzy measures to determine the similarity or identity of two uncertain spatial object representations in geographic information systems. Labelling the spatial objects by the degree of their similarity or inclusion measure makes the process of their identification more efficient. It reduces the need for a manual control. This leads to a more simple process of spatial datasets update from external data sources. We use this approach to get an accurate and correct representation of historical streams, which is derived from contemporary digital elevation model, i.e. we identify the segments that are similar to the streams depicted on historical maps.

Spatial distribution of an ancient agricultural oasis in Juyan, northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Ningke; Li, Xin

2014-09-01

Activities related to agricultural cultivation are some of the major human drivers of landscape change on the Earth's surface. Archaeological remains can provide qualitative evidence for studies of past agricultural development and environmental conditions. The ancient Juyan Oasis, which once flourished along the historic Silk Road, was a typical oasis of downstream inland river basins in the arid zone of northwestern China. Historical records and archaeological discoveries have qualitatively shown that the oasis supported extensive agricultural activities in this historical period from the Han Dynasty to the early Ming Dynasty (B.C. 202-A.D. 1375), which can be traced back to 2,000 years ago. In this study, different types of archaeological remains (including archaeological sites, ground surface artifacts, ancient cultivation ruins, and agricultural irrigation canals) that were obtained and identified from previous archaeological reports, field inspections, and remote sensing imagery were used to determine the spatial extent of the agricultural oasis in the historical period of interest. Our approach used multiple data sources in order to increase the accuracy and reliability of the results compared to previous studies. Our results distinctly suggested that much of the oasis was cultivated during the historical periods considered. Additionally, the arable land area in the historical period considered was roughly estimated to be approximately (3.39-4.75) × 104 ha. These findings regarding the spatial distribution of this ancient agricultural oasis and its arable land were reasonably determined to represent the ancient agricultural development that occurred in the Juyan Oasis better than results obtained from single sources of data.

A simple model for factory distribution: Historical effect in an industry city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uehara, Takashi; Sato, Kazunori; Morita, Satoru; Maeda, Yasunobu; Yoshimura, Jin; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2016-02-01

The construction and discontinuance processes of factories are complicated problems in sociology. We focus on the spatial and temporal changes of factories at Hamamatsu city in Japan. Real data indicate that the clumping degree of factories decreases as the density of factory increases. To represent the spatial and temporal changes of factories, we apply "contact process" which is one of cellular automata. This model roughly explains the dynamics of factory distribution. We also find "historical effect" in spatial distribution. Namely, the recent factories have been dispersed due to the past distribution during the period of economic bubble. This effect may be related to heavy shock in Japanese stock market.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Spatio-Temporal Story Mapping Animation Based On Structured Causal Relationships Of Historical Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, Y.; Tsuruoka, K.; Arikawa, M.

2014-04-01

In this paper, we proposed a user interface that displays visual animations on geographic maps and timelines for depicting historical stories by representing causal relationships among events for time series. We have been developing an experimental software system for the spatial-temporal visualization of historical stories for tablet computers. Our proposed system makes people effectively learn historical stories using visual animations based on hierarchical structures of different scale timelines and maps.

VEMAP phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Timothy G.F. Kittel; Nan. A. Rosenbloom; J.A. Royle; C. Daly; W.P. Gibson; H.H. Fisher; P. Thornton; D.N. Yates; S. Aulenbach; C. Kaufman; R. McKeown; Dominque Bachelet; David S. Schimel

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the...

Examination of elevation dependency in observed and projected temperature change in the Upper Indus Basin and Western Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Forsythe, N. D.; Blenkinsop, S.; Archer, D.; Hardy, A.; Janes, T.; Jones, R. G.; Holderness, T.

2013-12-01

We present results of two distinct, complementary analyses to assess evidence of elevation dependency in temperature change in the UIB (Karakoram, Eastern Hindu Kush) and wider WH. The first analysis component examines historical remotely-sensed land surface temperature (LST) from the second and third generation of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/2, AVHRR/3) instrument flown on NOAA satellite platforms since the mid-1980s through present day. The high spatial resolution (<4km) from AVHRR instrument enables precise consideration of the relationship between estimated LST and surface topography. The LST data product was developed as part of initiative to produce continuous time-series for key remotely sensed spatial products (LST, snow covered area, cloud cover, NDVI) extending as far back into the historical record as feasible. Context for the AVHRR LST data product is provided by results of bias assessment and validation procedures against both available local observations, both manned and automatic weather stations. Local observations provide meaningful validation and bias assessment of the vertical gradients found in the AVHRR LST as the elevation range from the lowest manned meteorological station (at 1460m asl) to the highest automatic weather station (4733m asl) covers much of the key range yielding runoff from seasonal snowmelt. Furthermore the common available record period of these stations (1995 to 2007) enables assessment not only of the AVHRR LST but also performance comparisons with the more recent MODIS LST data product. A range of spatial aggregations (from minor tributary catchments to primary basin headwaters) is performed to assess regional homogeneity and identify potential latitudinal or longitudinal gradients in elevation dependency. The second analysis component investigates elevation dependency, including its uncertainty, in projected temperature change trajectories in the downscaling of a seventeen member Global Climate Model (GCM) perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of transient (130-year) simulations using a moderate resolution (25km) regional climate model (RCM). The GCM ensemble is the17-member QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Projections) ensemble and the downscaling is done using HadRM3P, part of the PRECIS regional climate modelling system. Both the RCM and GCMs are models developed the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and are based on the HadCM3 GCM. Use of the multi-member PPE enables quantification of uncertainty in projected temperature change while the spatial resolution of RCM improves insight into the role of elevation in projected rates of change. Furthermore comparison with the results of the remote sensing analysis component - considered to provide an 'observed climatology' - permits evaluation of individual ensemble members with regards to biases in spatial gradients in temperature as well timing and magnitude of annual cycles.

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron,

2015-01-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

Multi-Sensor Radiometric Study to Detect Pathologies in Historical Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Pozo, S.; Herrero-Pascual, J.; Felipe-García, B.; Hernández-López, D.; Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, P.; González-Aguilera, D.

2015-02-01

This paper presents a comparative study with different remote sensing technologies to recognize pathologies in façades of historical buildings. Building materials deteriorate over the years due to different extrinsic and intrinsic agents, so assessing these diseases in a non-invasive way is crucial to help preserve them. Most of these buildings are extremely valuable and some of them have been declared monuments of cultural interest. In this way through close range remote sensing techniques, it is possible to study material pathologies in a rigorous way and in a short duration field campaign. For the investigation two different acquisition systems were applied, active and passive methods. The terrestrial laser scanner FARO Focus 3D was used as active sensor, working at the wavelength of 905 nm. For the case of passive sensors, a Nikon D-5000 and a 6- bands Mini-MCA multispectral camera (530-801 nm) were applied covering visible and near infrared spectral range. This analysis allows assessing the sensor, or sensors combination, suitability for pathologies detection, addressing the limitations according to the spatial and spectral resolution. Moreover, the pathology detection by unsupervised classification methods is addressed in order to evaluate the automation capability of this process.

Architectures of astronomical observation: From Sternwarte Kassel (circa 1560) to the Radcliffe Observatory (1772)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwan, Alistair Marcus

Historical observatories did not merely shelter astronomers and their instruments, but interacted with them to shape the range and outcome of astronomical observations. This claim is demonstrated through both improvised and purpose-built observatories from the late sixteenth century to the late eighteenth. The improvised observatories involve various grades of architectural intervention from simple re-purposing of a generic space through to radical renovation and customisation. Some of the observatories examined were never built, and some survive only in textual and visual representations, but all nonetheless reflect astronomers' thinking about what observatories needed to provide, and allow us to reconstruct aspects of what it was like to work in them. Historical observatories hence offer a physical record of observational practices. Reconstructing lost practices and the tacit knowledge involved shows how observatories actively contributed to observations by accommodating, supporting and sheltering observers and instruments. We also see how observatories compromised observations by constraining views and free movement, by failing to provide sufficient support, by being expensive or otherwise difficult to obtain, modify or replace. Some observatories were modified many times, accumulating layers of renovation and addition that reflect both advancement and succession of multiple research programs. Such observatories materially and spatially manifest how observational astronomy developed and also also how observatories, like other buildings, respond to changing needs. Examining observatories for their architectural functions and functional shortcomings connects observational practices, spatial configurations and astronomical instrumentation. Such examination shows that spatial contexts, and hence the buildings that define them, are not passive: to the contrary, observatories are active protagonists in the development and practise of observational astronomy.

Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

PubMed Central

Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

2017-01-01

Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

Valuing year-to-go hydrologic forecast improvements for a peaking hydropower system in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, David E.; Bales, Roger C.; Oroza, Carlos A.; Lund, Jay R.; Viers, Joshua H.

2016-05-01

We assessed the potential value of hydrologic forecasting improvements for a snow-dominated high-elevation hydropower system in the Sierra Nevada of California, using a hydropower optimization model. To mimic different forecasting skill levels for inflow time series, rest-of-year inflows from regression-based forecasts were blended in different proportions with representative inflows from a spatially distributed hydrologic model. The statistical approach mimics the simpler, historical forecasting approach that is still widely used. Revenue was calculated using historical electricity prices, with perfect price foresight assumed. With current infrastructure and operations, perfect hydrologic forecasts increased annual hydropower revenue by 0.14 to 1.6 million, with lower values in dry years and higher values in wet years, or about $0.8 million (1.2%) on average, representing overall willingness-to-pay for perfect information. A second sensitivity analysis found a wider range of annual revenue gain or loss using different skill levels in snow measurement in the regression-based forecast, mimicking expected declines in skill as the climate warms and historical snow measurements no longer represent current conditions. The value of perfect forecasts was insensitive to storage capacity for small and large reservoirs, relative to average inflow, and modestly sensitive to storage capacity with medium (current) reservoir storage. The value of forecasts was highly sensitive to powerhouse capacity, particularly for the range of capacities in the northern Sierra Nevada. The approach can be extended to multireservoir, multipurpose systems to help guide investments in forecasting.

Extending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe

PubMed Central

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Zsoter, Ervin

2014-01-01

Widespread flooding occurred across northwest Europe during the winter of 2013/14, resulting in large socioeconomic damages. In the historical record, extreme hydrological events have been connected with intense water vapour transport. Here we show that water vapour transport has higher medium-range predictability compared with precipitation in the winter 2013/14 forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Applying the concept of potential predictability, the transport is found to extend the forecast horizon by 3 days in some European regions. Our results suggest that the breakdown in precipitation predictability is due to uncertainty in the horizontal mass convergence location, an essential mechanism for precipitation generation. Furthermore, the predictability increases with larger spatial averages. Given the strong association between precipitation and water vapour transport, especially for extreme events, we conclude that the higher transport predictability could be used as a model diagnostic to increase preparedness for extreme hydrological events. PMID:25387309

Spatial Information in local society's cultural conservation and research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, J.-J.; Liao, H.-M.; Fan, I.-C.

2015-09-01

Center for Geographic Information Science, Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences,Academia Sinica (GIS center), Coordinate short-, medium-, and long-term operations of multidisciplinary researches focusing on related topics in the sciences and humanities. Based on the requirements of multi-disciplinary research applications, sustain collection and construction of sustaining and unifying spatial base data and knowledge and building of spatial data infrastructure. Since the 1990s, GIS center build geographic information platform: "Time and space infrastructure of Chinese civilization" (Chinese Civilizationin Time and Space, CCTS) and "Taiwan History and Culture Map" (Taiwan History and Culture in Time and Space, THCTS) . the goal of both system is constructing an integrated GIS-based application infrastructure on the spatial extent of China and Taiwan, in the timeframe of Chinese and Taiwanese history, and with the contents of Chinese and Taiwanese civilization. Base on THCTS, we began to build Cultural Resources GIS(CRGIS, http://crgis.rchss.sinica.edu.tw) in 2006, to collect temples, historic Monuments, historic buildings, old trees, wind lions god and other cultural resource in Taiwan, and provide a platform for the volunteers to make for all types of tangible, intangible cultural resources, add, edit, organize and query data via Content Management System(CMS) . CRGIS collected aggregated 13,000 temples, 4,900 churches. On this basis, draw a variety of religious beliefs map-multiple times Temple distributions, different main god distributions, church distribution. Such as Mazu maps, Multiple times temple distributions map (before 1823, 1823-1895,1895-1949,1949-2015 years) at Taijiang inner sea areas in Tainan. In Taiwan, there is a religious ritual through folk activities for a period ranging from one day to several days, passing specific geospatial range and passes through some temples or houses. Such an important folk activity somewhat similar to Western parade, called " raojing " , the main spirit is passing through of these ranges in the process, to reach the people within bless range, many scholars and academic experts's folk research are dependent on such spatial information. 2012, GIS center applied WebGIS and GPS to gather raojing activities spatial information in cooperation with multi-units, aggregated seven sessions, 22 days, 442 temples had pass through . The atlas also published named "Atlas of the 2012 Religious Processions in the Tainan Region" in 2014. we also applied national cultural resources data form relevant government authorities, through the metadata design and data processing(geocoding), established cultural geospatial and thematic information ,such as 800 monuments, 1,100 historic buildings and 4,300 old trees data. In recent years, based on CRGIS technology and operational concepts, different domain experts or local culture-ahistory research worker/team had to cooperate with us to establish local or thematic material and cultural resources. As in collaboration with local culture-history research worker in Kinmen County in 2012, build Kinmen intangible cultural assets - Wind Lion God ,set metadata and build 122 wind lion god `s attribute data and maps through field survey, it is worth mention such fieldwork data integrity is more than the official registration data form Kinmen National Park, the number of is wind lion god more than 40; in 2013,we were in cooperation with academic experts to establish property data and map of the theatre during the Japanese colonial era in Taiwan, a total of 170 theatres ; we were in cooperation with Japanese scholars, used his 44 detaile field survey data of sugar refineries during the Japanese colonial era in Taiwan ,to produce a sugar refineries distribution map and extend to a thematic web(http://map.net.tw/) [The Cultural Heritage Maps of Taiwan Suger Factories in a Century]site according to CRGIS independent cultural concept. Deployment and operation of the CRGIS, the meaning is not only build the thematic GIS system ,but also contain these concepts: Open Data, Wikipedia ,Public Participation, and we provide an interactive platform with culture resource data and geospatial technology. In addition to providing these reference material for local culture education, local cultural recognition, but to further cooperate with scholars, academic experts , local culture-history research worker / team, accumulated rich record of the past, research results, through the spatial database planning, data processing(ex. geocoding), field survey, geospatial materials overlapping, such as nesting geospatial technology to compile the cultural information and value-added applications.

Spatial cyberinfrastructures, ontologies, and the humanities

PubMed Central

Sieber, Renee E.; Wellen, Christopher C.; Jin, Yuan

2011-01-01

We report on research into building a cyberinfrastructure for Chinese biographical and geographic data. Our cyberinfrastructure contains (i) the McGill-Harvard-Yenching Library Ming Qing Women's Writings database (MQWW), the only online database on historical Chinese women's writings, (ii) the China Biographical Database, the authority for Chinese historical people, and (iii) the China Historical Geographical Information System, one of the first historical geographic information systems. Key to this integration is that linked databases retain separate identities as bases of knowledge, while they possess sufficient semantic interoperability to allow for multidatabase concepts and to support cross-database queries on an ad hoc basis. Computational ontologies create underlying semantics for database access. This paper focuses on the spatial component in a humanities cyberinfrastructure, which includes issues of conflicting data, heterogeneous data models, disambiguation, and geographic scale. First, we describe the methodology for integrating the databases. Then we detail the system architecture, which includes a tier of ontologies and schema. We describe the user interface and applications that allow for cross-database queries. For instance, users should be able to analyze the data, examine hypotheses on spatial and temporal relationships, and generate historical maps with datasets from MQWW for research, teaching, and publication on Chinese women writers, their familial relations, publishing venues, and the literary and social communities. Last, we discuss the social side of cyberinfrastructure development, as people are considered to be as critical as the technical components for its success. PMID:21444819

Estimating economic losses from earthquakes using an empirical approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2013-01-01

We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

Changing roles of propagule, climate, and land use during extralimital colonization of a rose chafer beetle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horak, Jakub; Hui, Cang; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Romportl, Dusan

2013-04-01

Regardless of their ecosystem functions, some insects are threatened when facing environmental changes and disturbances, while others become extremely successful. It is crucial for successful conservation to differentiate factors supporting species' current distributions from those triggering range dynamics. Here, we studied the sudden extralimital colonization of the rose chafer beetle, Oxythyrea funesta, in the Czech Republic. Specifically, we depicted the range expansion using accumulated historical records of first known occurrences and then explained the colonization events using five transformed indices depicting changes in local propagule pressure (LPP), climate, land use, elevation, and landscape structure. The slow occupancy increase of O. funesta before 1990 changed to a phase of rapid occupancy increase after 1990, driven not only by changes in the environment (climate and land use) but also by the spatial accumulation of LPP. Climate was also found to play a significant role but only during the niche-filling stage before 1990, while land use became important during the phase of rapid expansion after 1990. Inland waters (e.g., riparian corridors) also contributed substantially to the spread in the Czech Republic. Our method of using spatially transformed variables to explain the colonization events provides a novel way of detecting factors triggering range dynamics. The results highlight the importance of LPP in driving sudden occupancy increase of extralimital species and recommend the use of LPP as an important predictor for modeling range dynamics.

Timber production assessment of a plantation forest: An integrated framework with field-based inventory, multi-source remote sensing data and forest management history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tian; Zhu, Jiaojun; Deng, Songqiu; Zheng, Xiao; Zhang, Jinxin; Shang, Guiduo; Huang, Liyan

2016-10-01

Timber production is the purpose for managing plantation forests, and its spatial and quantitative information is critical for advising management strategies. Previous studies have focused on growing stock volume (GSV), which represents the current potential of timber production, yet few studies have investigated historical process-harvested timber. This resulted in a gap in a synthetical ecosystem service assessment of timber production. In this paper, we established a Management Process-based Timber production (MPT) framework to integrate the current GSV and the harvested timber derived from historical logging regimes, trying to synthetically assess timber production for a historical period. In the MPT framework, age-class and current GSV determine the times of historical thinning and the corresponding harvested timber, by using a ;space-for-time; substitution. The total timber production can be estimated by the historical harvested timber in each thinning and the current GSV. To test this MPT framework, an empirical study on a larch plantation (LP) with area of 43,946 ha was conducted in North China for a period from 1962 to 2010. Field-based inventory data was integrated with ALOS PALSAR (Advanced Land-Observing Satellite Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) and Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) data for estimating the age-class and current GSV of LP. The random forest model with PALSAR backscatter intensity channels and OLI bands as input predictive variables yielded an accuracy of 67.9% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.59 for age-class classification. The regression model using PALSAR data produced a root mean square error (RMSE) of 36.5 m3 ha-1. The total timber production of LP was estimated to be 7.27 × 106 m3, with 4.87 × 106 m3 in current GSV and 2.40 × 106 m3 in harvested timber through historical thinning. The historical process-harvested timber accounts to 33.0% of the total timber production, which component has been neglected in the assessments for current status of plantation forests. Synthetically considering the RMSE for predictive GSV and misclassification of age-class, the error in timber production were supposed to range from -55.2 to 56.3 m3 ha-1. The MPT framework can be used to assess timber production of other tree species at a larger spatial scale, providing crucial information for a better understanding of forest ecosystem service.

Enhancing the use of Argos satellite data for home range and long distance migration studies of marine animals.

PubMed

Hoenner, Xavier; Whiting, Scott D; Hindell, Mark A; McMahon, Clive R

2012-01-01

Accurately quantifying animals' spatial utilisation is critical for conservation, but has long remained an elusive goal due to technological impediments. The Argos telemetry system has been extensively used to remotely track marine animals, however location estimates are characterised by substantial spatial error. State-space models (SSM) constitute a robust statistical approach to refine Argos tracking data by accounting for observation errors and stochasticity in animal movement. Despite their wide use in ecology, few studies have thoroughly quantified the error associated with SSM predicted locations and no research has assessed their validity for describing animal movement behaviour. We compared home ranges and migratory pathways of seven hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) estimated from (a) highly accurate Fastloc GPS data and (b) locations computed using common Argos data analytical approaches. Argos 68(th) percentile error was <1 km for LC 1, 2, and 3 while markedly less accurate (>4 km) for LC ≤ 0. Argos error structure was highly longitudinally skewed and was, for all LC, adequately modelled by a Student's t distribution. Both habitat use and migration routes were best recreated using SSM locations post-processed by re-adding good Argos positions (LC 1, 2 and 3) and filtering terrestrial points (mean distance to migratory tracks ± SD = 2.2 ± 2.4 km; mean home range overlap and error ratio = 92.2% and 285.6 respectively). This parsimonious and objective statistical procedure however still markedly overestimated true home range sizes, especially for animals exhibiting restricted movements. Post-processing SSM locations nonetheless constitutes the best analytical technique for remotely sensed Argos tracking data and we therefore recommend using this approach to rework historical Argos datasets for better estimation of animal spatial utilisation for research and evidence-based conservation purposes.

Quaternary geomorphology and modern coastal development in response to an inherent geologic framework: An example from Charleston, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, M.S.; Gayes, P.T.; Kindinger, J.L.; Flocks, J.G.; Krantz, D.E.; Donovan, P.

2005-01-01

Coastal landscapes evolve over wide-ranging spatial and temporal scales in response to physical and biological pro-cesses that interact with a wide range of variables. To develop better predictive models for these dynamic areas, we must understand the influence of these variables on coastal morphologies and ultimately how they influence coastal processes. This study defines the influence of geologic framework variability on a classic mixed-energy coastline, and establishes four categorical scales of spatial and temporal influence on the coastal system. The near-surface, geologic framework was delineated using high-resolution seismic profiles, shallow vibracores, detailed geomorphic maps, historical shorelines, aerial photographs, and existing studies, and compared to the long- and short-term development of two coastal compartments near Charleston, South Carolina. Although it is clear that the imprint of a mixed-energy tidal and wave signal (basin-scale) dictates formation of drumstick barriers and that immediate responses to wave climate are dramatic, island size, position, and longer-term dynamics are influenced by a series of inherent, complex near-surface stratigraphic geometries. Major near-surface Tertiary geometries influence inlet placement and drainage development (island-scale) through multiple interglacial cycles and overall channel morphology (local-scale). During the modern marine transgression, the halo of ebb-tidal deltas greatly influence inlet region dynamics, while truncated beach ridges and exposed, differentially erodable Cenozoic deposits in the active system influence historical shoreline dynamics and active shoreface morphologies (blockscale). This study concludes that the mixed-energy imprint of wave and tide theories dominates general coastal morphology, but that underlying stratigraphic influences on the coast provide site-specific, long-standing imprints on coastal evolution.

Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge on Jeju Island, Korea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mair, Alan; Hagedorn, Benjamin; Tillery, Suzanne; El-Kadi, Aly I.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Ha, Kyoochul; Koh, Gi-Won

2013-01-01

Estimates of groundwater recharge spatial and temporal variability are essential inputs to groundwater flow models that are used to test groundwater availability under different management and climate conditions. In this study, a soil water balance analysis was conducted to estimate groundwater recharge on the island of Jeju, Korea, for baseline, drought, and climate-land use change scenarios. The Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code was used to compute groundwater recharge and other water balance components at a daily time step using a 100 m grid cell size for an 18-year baseline scenario (1992–2009). A 10-year drought scenario was selected from historical precipitation trends (1961–2009), while the climate-land use change scenario was developed using late 21st century climate projections and a change in urban land use. Mean annual recharge under the baseline, drought, and climate-land use scenarios was estimated at 884, 591, and 788 mm, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, mean annual recharge was within the range of previous estimates (825–959 mm) and only slightly lower than the mean of 902 mm. As a fraction of mean annual rainfall, mean annual recharge was computed as only 42% and less than previous estimates of 44–48%. The maximum historical reported annual pumping rate of 241 × 106 m3 equates to 15% of baseline recharge, which is within the range of 14–16% computed from earlier studies. The model does not include a mechanism to account for additional sources of groundwater recharge, such as fog drip, irrigation, and artificial recharge, and may also overestimate evapotranspiration losses. Consequently, the results presented in this study represent a conservative estimate of total recharge.

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

2014-12-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

PRAIRIEMAP: A GIS database for prairie grassland management in western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2003-01-01

The USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Snake River Field Station (SRFS) maintains a database of spatial information, called PRAIRIEMAP, which is needed to address the management of prairie grasslands in western North America. We identify and collect spatial data for the region encompassing the historical extent of prairie grasslands (Figure 1). State and federal agencies, the primary entities responsible for management of prairie grasslands, need this information to develop proactive management strategies to prevent prairie-grassland wildlife species from being listed as Endangered Species, or to develop appropriate responses if listing does occur. Spatial data are an important component in documenting current habitat and other environmental conditions, which can be used to identify areas that have undergone significant changes in land cover and to identify underlying causes. Spatial data will also be a critical component guiding the decision processes for restoration of habitat in the Great Plains. As such, the PRAIRIEMAP database will facilitate analyses of large-scale and range-wide factors that may be causing declines in grassland habitat and populations of species that depend on it for their survival. Therefore, development of a reliable spatial database carries multiple benefits for land and wildlife management. The project consists of 3 phases: (1) identify relevant spatial data, (2) assemble, document, and archive spatial data on a computer server, and (3) develop and maintain the web site (http://prairiemap.wr.usgs.gov) for query and transfer of GIS data to managers and researchers.

Spatial and temporal controls of atoll island inundation: implications for urbanized atolls in the Marshall Islands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, M.; Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.

2012-12-01

Atoll islands are highly vulnerable to a range of inundation hazards. The impacts of such hazards are expected to be magnified as a result of continued sea-level rise. Both recent and historic inundation events provide unique insights into the requisite conditions necessary to initiate island inundation. A number of recent and historic inundation events are presented in order to examine the oceanographic and meteorological conditions driving inundation of a densely populated, urbanized atoll in the central Pacific. Analysis of inundation events suggests that a number of key drivers contribute to the spatial and temporal extent of island inundation, with unique degrees of predictability and resultant impact signatures apparent on island geomorphology and local anthropogenic activities. Results indicate three distinct drivers of inundation hazards exist. Firstly, tropical storms and typhoons elevate sea level through inverse barometric setup, wind setup and a range of wave driven processes and have caused considerable impact on atolls within the Marshall Islands. Secondly, super-elevated sea level conditions resulting from the combination of seasonal high tides and quasi-cyclical La Nina conditions drive inundation of low-lying lagoon facing coastal areas. Thirdly, long period swell conditions, typically generated by distant storms, can elevate reef-flat water levels through wave setup and infragravity wave oscillations. Such wave conditions can over wash the ocean-facing island ridge, often inundating large sections of the island. Reef-flat wave conditions are tidally modulated, with inundation events typically occurring around high tide. However, the two most recent destructive swell-driven inundation events have occurred while tide levels were significantly lower than spring tide levels, suggesting high water levels are not a necessary prerequisite for wave-driven inundation. The different modes of inundation are discussed and grounded within recent and historic inundation events, as well as results of a lengthy reef flat wave observation dataset from Kwajalein and Majuro Atolls in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Future impacts of continued sea-level rise are considered on each mode of island inundation and the implications for local response discussed within the context of urbanised atoll islands.

Using Multicriteria Analysis in Issues Concerning Adaptation of Historic Facilities for the Needs of Public Utility Buildings with a Function of a Theatre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obracaj, Piotr; Fabianowski, Dariusz

2017-10-01

Implementations concerning adaptation of historic facilities for public utility objects are associated with the necessity of solving many complex, often conflicting expectations of future users. This mainly concerns the function that includes construction, technology and aesthetic issues. The list of issues is completed with proper protection of historic values, different in each case. The procedure leading to obtaining the expected solution is a multicriteria procedure, usually difficult to accurately define and requiring designer’s large experience. An innovative approach has been used for the analysis, namely - the modified EA FAHP (Extent Analysis Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process) Chang’s method of a multicriteria analysis for the assessment of complex functional and spatial issues. Selection of optimal spatial form of an adapted historic building intended for the multi-functional public utility facility was analysed. The assumed functional flexibility was determined in the scope of: education, conference, and chamber spectacles, such as drama, concerts, in different stage-audience layouts.

Research-informed design, management and maintenance of infrastructure slopes: development of a multi-scalar approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glendinning, S.; Helm, P. R.; Rouainia, M.; Stirling, R. A.; Asquith, J. D.; Hughes, P. N.; Toll, D. G.; Clarke, D.; Powrie, W.; Smethurst, J.; Hughes, D.; Harley, R.; Karim, R.; Dixon, N.; Crosby, C.; Chambers, J.; Dijkstra, T.; Gunn, D.; Briggs, K.; Muddle, D.

2015-09-01

The UK's transport infrastructure is one of the most heavily used in the world. The performance of these networks is critically dependent on the performance of cutting and embankment slopes which make up £20B of the £60B asset value of major highway infrastructure alone. The rail network in particular is also one of the oldest in the world: many of these slopes are suffering high incidents of instability (increasing with time). This paper describes the development of a fundamental understanding of earthwork material and system behaviour, through the systematic integration of research across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatially these range from microscopic studies of soil fabric, through elemental materials behaviour to whole slope modelling and monitoring and scaling up to transport networks. Temporally, historical and current weather event sequences are being used to understand and model soil deterioration processes, and climate change scenarios to examine their potential effects on slope performance in futures up to and including the 2080s. The outputs of this research are being mapped onto the different spatial and temporal scales of infrastructure slope asset management to inform the design of new slopes through to changing the way in which investment is made into aging assets. The aim ultimately is to help create a more reliable, cost effective, safer and more resilient transport system.

Latitude delineates patterns of biogeography in terrestrial Streptomyces.

PubMed

Choudoir, Mallory J; Doroghazi, James R; Buckley, Daniel H

2016-12-01

The biogeography of Streptomyces was examined at regional spatial scales to identify factors that govern patterns of microbial diversity. Streptomyces are spore forming filamentous bacteria which are widespread in soil. Streptomyces strains were isolated from perennial grass habitats sampled across a spatial scale of more than 6000 km. Previous analysis of this geographically explicit culture collection provided evidence for a latitudinal diversity gradient in Streptomyces species. Here the hypothesis that this latitudinal diversity gradient is a result of evolutionary dynamics associated with historical demographic processes was evaluated. Historical demographic phenomena have genetic consequences that can be evaluated through analysis of population genetics. Population genetic approaches were applied to analyze population structure in six of the most numerically abundant and geographically widespread Streptomyces phylogroups from our culture collection. Streptomyces population structure varied at regional spatial scales, and allelic diversity correlated with geographic distance. In addition, allelic diversity and gene flow are partitioned by latitude. Finally, it was found that nucleotide diversity within phylogroups was negatively correlated with latitude. These results indicate that phylogroup diversification is constrained by dispersal limitation at regional spatial scales, and they are consistent with the hypothesis that historical demographic processes have influenced the contemporary biogeography of Streptomyces. © 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Lillo-Saavedra, Mario; Lagos, Octavio

2017-04-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and for the case of the two long-term products the applicability for agricultural drought were evaluated when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite data. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite products, and nine statistics were used to evaluate their performance to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze these datasets to better understand their similarities and differences in characterizing rainfall patterns across Chile. Monthly analysis showed that all satellite products highly overestimated rainfall in the arid North zone. However, there were no major difference between all three products from North to South-Central zones. Though, in the South zone, PERSIANN-CDR shows the lowest fit with high underestimation, while CHIRPS 2.0 and TMPA 3B43 v7 had better agreement with in situ measurements. The accuracy of satellite products were highly dependent on the amount of monthly rainfall with the best results found during winter seasons and in zones (Central to South) with higher amounts of precipitation. PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS 2.0 were used to derive SPI at time-scale of 1, 3 and 6 months, both satellite products presented similar results when it was compared in situ against satellite SPI's. Because of its higher spatial resolution that allows better characterizing of spatial variation in precipitation pattern, the CHIRPS 2.0 was used to mapping the SPI-3 over Chile. The results of this study show that in order to use the CHIRPS 2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR datasets in Chile to monitor spatial patterns in the rainfall and drought intensity conditions, these products should be calibrated to adjust for the overestimation/underestimation of rainfall geographically specially in the North zone and seasonally during the summer and spring months in the other zones.

Evaluating satellite-derived long-term historical precipitation datasets for drought monitoring in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, Francisco; Wardlow, Brian; Tadesse, Tsegaye

2016-10-01

Precipitation is a key parameter for the study of climate change and variability and the detection and monitoring of natural disaster such as drought. Precipitation datasets that accurately capture the amount and spatial variability of rainfall is critical for drought monitoring and a wide range of other climate applications. This is challenging in many parts of the world, which often have a limited number of weather stations and/or historical data records. Satellite-derived precipitation products offer a viable alternative with several remotely sensed precipitation datasets now available with long historical data records (+30 years), which include the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) datasets. This study presents a comparative analysis of three historical satellite-based precipitation datasets that include Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B43 version 7 (1998-2015), PERSIANN-CDR (1983-2015) and CHIRPS 2.0 (1981-2015) over Chile to assess their performance across the country and evaluate their applicability for agricultural drought evaluation when used in the calculation of commonly used drought indicator as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this analysis, 278 weather stations of in-situ rainfall measurements across Chile were initially compared to the satellite-based precipitation estimates. The study area (Chile) was divided into five latitudinal zones: North, North-Central, Central, South-Central and South to determine if there were a regional difference among these satellite-based estimates. Nine statistics were used to evaluate the performance of satellite products to estimate the amount and spatial distribution of historical rainfall across Chile. Hierarchical cluster analysis, k-means and singular value decomposition were used to analyze these datasets to better understand their similarities and differences in characterizing rainfall patterns across Chile. Monthly analysis showed that all satellite products highly overestimated precipitation in the arid North zone. However, there were no major difference between all three products from North to South-Central zones. Though, in the South zone, PERSIANN-CDR shows the lowest fit with high underestimation, further CHIRPS 2.0 and TMPA 3B43 v7 had better agreement with in-situ measurements. The accuracy of satellite products were highly dependent on the amount of monthly rainfall with the best results found during winter seasons and in zones (Central to South) with higher amounts of precipitation. PERSIANN-CDR and CHIRPS 2.0 were used to derive SPI at time-scale of 1, 3 and 6 months, both satellite products presented similar results when it was compared in-situ against satellite SPI's. Because of its higher spatial resolution that allows better characterizing of spatial variation in precipitation pattern, the CHIRPS 2.0 was used to mapping the SPI-3 over Chile. The results of this study show that in order to use the CHIRPS 2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR data sets in Chile to monitor spatial patterns in the rainfall and drought intensity conditions, these products should be calibrated to adjust for the overestimation/underestimation of precipitation geographically specially in the North zone and seasonally during the summer and spring months in the other zones.

Methodology to determine the parameters of historical earthquakes in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian; Lin, Guoliang; Zhang, Zhe

2017-12-01

China is one of the countries with the longest cultural tradition. Meanwhile, China has been suffering very heavy earthquake disasters; so, there are abundant earthquake recordings. In this paper, we try to sketch out historical earthquake sources and research achievements in China. We will introduce some basic information about the collections of historical earthquake sources, establishing intensity scale and the editions of historical earthquake catalogues. Spatial-temporal and magnitude distributions of historical earthquake are analyzed briefly. Besides traditional methods, we also illustrate a new approach to amend the parameters of historical earthquakes or even identify candidate zones for large historical or palaeo-earthquakes. In the new method, a relationship between instrumentally recorded small earthquakes and strong historical earthquakes is built up. Abundant historical earthquake sources and the achievements of historical earthquake research in China are of valuable cultural heritage in the world.

Understanding Gaps in Research Networks: Using "Spatial Reasoning" as a Window into the Importance of Networked Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruce, Catherine D.; Davis, Brent; Sinclair, Nathalie; McGarvey, Lynn; Hallowell, David; Drefs, Michelle; Francis, Krista; Hawes, Zachary; Moss, Joan; Mulligan, Joanne; Okamoto, Yukari; Whiteley, Walter; Woolcott, Geoff

2017-01-01

This paper finds its origins in a multidisciplinary research group's efforts to assemble a review of research in order to better appreciate how "spatial reasoning" is understood and investigated across academic disciplines. We first collaborated to create a historical map of the development of spatial reasoning across key disciplines…

Contrasting spatial patterns in active-fire and fire-suppressed Mediterranean climate old-growth mixed conifer forests

Treesearch

Danny L. Fry; Scott L. Stephens; Brandon M. Collins; Malcolm North; Ernesto Franco-Vizcaino; Samantha J. Gill

2014-01-01

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference...

Spatial patterning of fuels and fire hazard across a central U.S. deciduous forest region

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Daniel C. Dey; Richard P. Guyette; Hong S. He; Joseph M. Marschall

2011-01-01

Information describing spatial and temporal variability of forest fuel conditions is essential to assessing overall fire hazard and risk. Limited information exists describing spatial characteristics of fuels in the eastern deciduous forest region, particularly in dry oak-dominated regions that historically burned relatively frequently. From an extensive fuels survey...

Military Training Lands Historic Context: Small Arms Ranges

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

ER D C/ CE R L TR -1 0 -1 1 Military Training Lands Historic Context Small Arms Ranges Dan Archibald, Adam Smith, Sunny Adams, and...unlimited. ERDC/CERL TR-10-11 March 2010 Military Training Lands Historic Context Small Arms Ranges Dan Archibald, Adam Smith, Sunny Adams...context for military training lands, written to satisfy a part of Section 110 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) of 1966 as amended

Biodiversity, molecular ecology and phylogeography of marine sponges: patterns, implications and outlooks.

PubMed

Wörheide, Gert; Solé-Cava, Antonio M; Hooper, John N A

2005-04-01

Marine sponges are an ecologically important and highly diverse component of marine benthic communities, found in all the world's oceans, at all depths. Although their commercial potential and evolutionary importance is increasingly recognized, many pivotal aspects of their basic biology remain enigmatic. Knowledge of historical biogeographic affinities and biodiversity patterns is rudimentary, and there are still few data about genetic variation among sponge populations and spatial patterns of this variation. Biodiversity analyses of tropical Australasian sponges revealed spatial trends not universally reflected in the distributions of other marine phyla within the Indo-West Pacific region. At smaller spatial scales sponges frequently form heterogeneous, spatially patchy assemblages, with some empirical evidence suggesting that environmental variables such as light and/or turbidity strongly contribute to local distributions. There are no apparent latitudinal diversity gradients at larger spatial scales but stochastic processes, such as changing current patterns, the presence or absence of major carbonate platforms and historical biogeography, may determine modern day distributions. Studies on Caribbean oceanic reefs have revealed similar patterns, only weakly correlated with environmental factors. However, several questions remain where molecular approaches promise great potential, e.g., concerning connectivity and biogeographic relationships. Studies to date have helped to reveal that sponge populations are genetically highly structured and that historical processes might play an important role in determining such structure. Increasingly sophisticated molecular tools are now being applied, with results contributing significantly to a better understanding of poriferan microevolutionary processes and molecular ecology.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

PubMed

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

2015-01-01

Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Maryland Learning Outcomes: Maryland School Performance Assessment Program for Social Studies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maryland State Dept. of Education, Baltimore.

This document outlines six learning outcomes for social studies students in grades PreK-8 in Maryland schools: (1) "Social Studies Skills" (students will demonstrate an understanding of historical and current events using chronological and spatial thinking, develop historical interpretations, and frame questions that include collecting…

Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

PubMed

Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

2011-06-01

Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Expanding Spatial Coverage of Geomagnetic Field Models Using Submarine Basaltic Glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeller, L. M.; Bowles, J. A.; Dreyer, B.; Clague, D. A.

2009-12-01

In recent years, paleointensity of submarine basaltic glass (SBG) has been used to constrain the ages of young mid-ocean ridge flows, often in the absence of more precise age data. In the present study, samples taken from the Co-Axial segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge allow for further testing of the paleointensity dating technique; they also provide an assessment of the feasibility of incorporating SBG data into geomagnetic field models when independent age constraints are available. The nine sampled sites include six for which 14C dating of overlying sediments provides minimum ages (950 - 6400 ybp) for the flows, and three sites from historical flows. Absolute paleointensity estimates were derived using a Thellier-type method. The paleointensities of the samples ranged from 51.8 µT to 71.1 µT (VADM 8.3 to 11.6 x 1022 Am2). We compare results from the young (historical) flows directly with the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF), and two out of three sites are consistent with IGRF. The third gives paleointensity values that are considerably higher than would be expected based on IGRF. The rest of the samples can be compared with geomagnetic field models based on archeomagnetic and paleomagnetic data. Paleointensity values from samples < 3ka are consistent with the CALS3K.3 model (Korte et al., Geochem. Geophys. Geosys., 10, Q06008, doi:10.1029/2008GC002297, 2009), given the approximate ages provided by the 14C dating of the overlying sediments. Data constraining current geomagnetic field models are spatially quite limited, with the vast majority restricted to northern hemispheric continental regions. We suggest that data from mid-ocean ridges are suitable for incorporation into such models, with the potential to greatly expand spatial coverage.

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harley, Grant L.; Baisan, Christopher H.; Brown, Peter M.; Falk, Donald A.; Flatley, William T.; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Hessl, Amy; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Kaye, Margot W.; Lafon, Charles W.; Margolis, Ellis; Maxwell, R. Stockton; Naito, Adam T.; Platt, William J.; Rother, Monica T.; Saladyga, Thomas; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Stachowiak, Lauren A.; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Sutherland, Elaine Kennedy; Taylor, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010, Amoroso et al., 2017). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochronologists recognized that tree rings retained fire scars (e.g., Figure 1), and hence a record of past fires, they have conducted studies worldwide to reconstruct the historical range and variability of fire regimes (e.g., frequency, severity, seasonality, spatial extent), the influence of fire regimes on forest structure and ecosystem dynamics, and the top-down (e.g., climate) and bottom-up (e.g., fuels, topography) drivers of fire that operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. As in other scientific fields, continued application of dendrochronological techniques to study fires has shaped new trajectories for the science. Here we highlight some important current directions in the United States (US) and call on our international colleagues to continue the conversation with perspectives from other countries.

Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Selden, Rebecca L; Batt, Ryan D; Saba, Vincent S; Pinsky, Malin L

2018-01-01

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO 2 . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Guangshun; Qi, Jinzhe; Wang, Guiming; Shi, Quanhua; Darman, Yury; Hebblewhite, Mark; Miquelle, Dale G.; Li, Zhilin; Zhang, Xue; Gu, Jiayin; Chang, Youde; Zhang, Minghai; Ma, Jianzhang

2015-01-01

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard’s historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km2 of current range and 21,173.7 km2 of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km2of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally. PMID:26638877

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangshun; Qi, Jinzhe; Wang, Guiming; Shi, Quanhua; Darman, Yury; Hebblewhite, Mark; Miquelle, Dale G; Li, Zhilin; Zhang, Xue; Gu, Jiayin; Chang, Youde; Zhang, Minghai; Ma, Jianzhang

2015-12-07

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard's historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km(2) of current range and 21,173.7 km(2) of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km(2)of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally.

Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santamaria-Aguilar, S.; Arns, A.; Vafeidis, A. T.

2017-04-01

Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea-level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter-Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of crop yield caused by climate and irrigation in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chao; Baethgen, Walter E.; Wang, Enli; Yu, Qiang

2011-12-01

Grain yields of wheat and maize were obtained from national statistics and simulated with an agricultural system model to investigate the effects of historical climate variability and irrigation on crop yield in the North China Plain (NCP). Both observed and simulated yields showed large temporal and spatial variability due to variations in climate and irrigation supply. Wheat yield under full irrigation (FI) was 8 t ha-1 or higher in 80% of seasons in the north, it ranged from 7 to 10 t ha-1 in 90% of seasons in central NCP, and less than 9 t ha-1 in 85% of seasons in the south. Reduced irrigation resulted in increased crop yield variability. Wheat yield under supplemental irrigation, i.e., to meet only 50% of irrigation water requirement [supplemental irrigation (SI)] ranged from 2.7 to 8.8 t ha-1 with the maximum frequency of seasons having the range of 4-6 t ha-1 in the north, 4-7 t ha-1 in central NCP, and 5-8 t ha-1 in the south. Wheat yield under no irrigation (NI) was lower than 1 t ha-1 in about 50% of seasons. Considering the NCP as a whole, simulated maize yield under FI ranged from 3.9 to 11.8 t ha-1 with similar frequency distribution in the range of 6-11.8 t ha-1 with the interval of 2 t ha-1. It ranged from 0 to 11.8 t ha-1, uniformly distributed into the range of 4-10 t ha-1 under SI, and NI. The results give an insight into the levels of regional crop production affected by climate and water management strategies.

Use of Visual Range Measurements to Predict PM2.5 Exposures in Southwest Asia and Afghanistan

PubMed Central

Masri, Shahir; Garshick, Eric; Hart, Jaime; Bouhamra, Walid; Koutrakis, Petros

2016-01-01

Military personnel deployed to Southwest Asia and Afghanistan were exposed to high levels of ambient particulate matter (PM) indicating the potential for exposure-related health effects. However, historical quantitative ambient PM exposure data for conducting epidemiological health studies are unavailable due to a lack of monitoring stations. Since visual range is proportional to particle light extinction (scattering and absorption), visibility can serve as a surrogate for PM2.5 concentrations where ground measurements are not available. We used data on visibility, relative humidity (RH), and PM2.5 ground measurements collected in Kuwait from years 2004 to 2005 to establish the relationship between PM2.5 and visibility. Model validation obtained by regressing trimester average PM2.5 predictions against PM2.5 measurements in Kuwait produced an r2 value of 0.84. Cross validation of urban and rural sites in Kuwait also revealed good model fit. We applied this relationship to location-specific visibility data at 104 regional sites between years 2000 and 2012 to estimate monthly average PM2.5 concentrations. Monthly averages at sites in Iraq, Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Djibouti, and Qatar ranged from 10 to 365 µg/m3 during this period, while site averages ranged from 22 to 80 µg/m3, indicating considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in ambient PM2.5 across these regions. These data support the use of historical visibility data to estimate location-specific PM2.5 concentrations for use in future epidemiological studies in the region. PMID:27700621

Walking through the Revolution: A Spatial Reading of Literary Echoes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Queiroz, Ana Isabel; Alves, Daniel

2015-01-01

This paper presents an embryo of a literary guide on the Carnation Revolution to be explored for educational historical excursions other than leisure and tourism. We propose a historical trail through the centre of Lisbon, city of the Carnation Revolution, called "Walk through the Revolution." The trail aims to reinforce collective…

Estimation of a Historic Mercury Load Function for Lake Michigan using Dated Sediment Cores

EPA Science Inventory

Box cores collected between 1994 and 1996 were used to estimate historic mercury loads to Lake Michigan. Based on a kriging spatial interpolation of 54 Pb-210 dated cores, 228 metric tons of mercury are stored in the lake’s sediments (excluding Green Bay). To estimate the time ...

Objects of Protection, Enduring Nodes of Difference: Disability Intersections with "Other" Differences, 1916 to 2016

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Artiles, Alfredo J.; Dorn, Sherman; Bal, Aydin

2016-01-01

The purpose of this chapter is to contribute a cultural-historical analytical perspective on disability and its intersections. We assume that disability is socially, historically, and spatially constructed. This standpoint enables us to understand and disrupt disparities in education that affect students living at the intersection of disability…

Historical trajectories and restoration strategies for the Mississippi River alluvial valley

Treesearch

Brice B. Hanberry; John M. Kabrick; Hong S. He; Brian J. Palik

2012-01-01

Unlike upland forests in the eastern United States, little research is available about the composition and structure of bottomland forests before Euro-American settlement. To provide a historical reference encompassing spatial variation for the Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, we quantified forest types, species distributions, densities, and stocking of...

Comparison of acoustic doppler current profiler and Price AA mechanical current meter measurements made during the 2011 Mississippi River Flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Brien, Patrick; Mueller, David; Pratt, Thad

2012-01-01

The Mississippi River and Tributaries project performed as designed during the historic 2011 Mississippi River flood, with many of the operational decisions based on discharge targets as opposed to stage. Measurement of discharge at the Tarbert Landing, Mississippi range provides critical information used in operational decisions for the floodways located in Louisiana. Historically, discharge measurements have been made using a Price AA current meter and the mid-section method, and a long record exists based on these types of measurements, including historical peak discharges. Discharge measurements made using an acoustic Doppler current profiler from a moving boat have been incorporated into the record since the mid 1990's, and are used along with the Price AA mid-section measurements. During the 2011 flood event, both methods were used and appeared to provide different results at times. The apparent differences between the measurement techniques are due to complex hydrodynamics at this location that created large spatial and temporal fluctuations in the flow. The data and analysis presented herein show the difference between the two methods to be within the expected accuracy of the measurements when the measurements are made concurrently. The observed fluctuations prevent valid comparisons of data collected sequentially or even with different observation durations.

Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture.

PubMed

Dias, Lívia C P; Pimenta, Fernando M; Santos, Ana B; Costa, Marcos H; Ladle, Richard J

2016-08-01

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940-2012) and productivity (1990-2012) in Brazil using a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km(2) ) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision-making. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF HISTORIC SATELLITE IMAGE CLASSIFICATION BY COMBINING LOW-RESOLUTION MULTISPECTRAL DATA WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION PANCHROMATIC DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Getman, Daniel J

2008-01-01

Many attempts to observe changes in terrestrial systems over time would be significantly enhanced if it were possible to improve the accuracy of classifications of low-resolution historic satellite data. In an effort to examine improving the accuracy of historic satellite image classification by combining satellite and air photo data, two experiments were undertaken in which low-resolution multispectral data and high-resolution panchromatic data were combined and then classified using the ECHO spectral-spatial image classification algorithm and the Maximum Likelihood technique. The multispectral data consisted of 6 multispectral channels (30-meter pixel resolution) from Landsat 7. These data were augmented with panchromatic datamore » (15m pixel resolution) from Landsat 7 in the first experiment, and with a mosaic of digital aerial photography (1m pixel resolution) in the second. The addition of the Landsat 7 panchromatic data provided a significant improvement in the accuracy of classifications made using the ECHO algorithm. Although the inclusion of aerial photography provided an improvement in accuracy, this improvement was only statistically significant at a 40-60% level. These results suggest that once error levels associated with combining aerial photography and multispectral satellite data are reduced, this approach has the potential to significantly enhance the precision and accuracy of classifications made using historic remotely sensed data, as a way to extend the time range of efforts to track temporal changes in terrestrial systems.« less

Spatial patterns and controls on historical fire regimes and forest structure in the Klamath Mountains

Treesearch

Alan H. Taylor; Carl N. Skinner

2003-01-01

Fire exclusion in mixed conifer forests has increased the risk of fire due to decades of fuel accumulation. Restoration of fire into altered forests is a challenge because of a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of fire regimes. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest age structure are reconstructed in a...

Predicting wildfire occurrence distribution with spatial point process models and its uncertainty assessment: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin, USA

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Peter J. Weisberg; Thomas E. Dilts; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Alison Stanton; Carl Skinner

2015-01-01

Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP)...

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Integration of Point Clouds and Images Acquired from a Low-Cost NIR Camera Sensor for Cultural Heritage Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kedzierski, M.; Walczykowski, P.; Wojtkowska, M.; Fryskowska, A.

2017-08-01

Terrestrial Laser Scanning is currently one of the most common techniques for modelling and documenting structures of cultural heritage. However, only geometric information on its own, without the addition of imagery data is insufficient when formulating a precise statement about the status of studies structure, for feature extraction or indicating the sites to be restored. Therefore, the Authors propose the integration of spatial data from terrestrial laser scanning with imaging data from low-cost cameras. The use of images from low-cost cameras makes it possible to limit the costs needed to complete such a study, and thus, increasing the possibility of intensifying the frequency of photographing and monitoring of the given structure. As a result, the analysed cultural heritage structures can be monitored more closely and in more detail, meaning that the technical documentation concerning this structure is also more precise. To supplement the laser scanning information, the Authors propose using both images taken both in the near-infrared range and in the visible range. This choice is motivated by the fact that not all important features of historical structures are always visible RGB, but they can be identified in NIR imagery, which, with the additional merging with a three-dimensional point cloud, gives full spatial information about the cultural heritage structure in question. The Authors proposed an algorithm that automates the process of integrating NIR images with a point cloud using parameters, which had been calculated during the transformation of RGB images. A number of conditions affecting the accuracy of the texturing had been studies, in particular, the impact of the geometry of the distribution of adjustment points and their amount on the accuracy of the integration process, the correlation between the intensity value and the error on specific points using images in different ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum and the selection of the optimal method of transforming the acquired imagery. As a result of the research, an innovative solution was achieved, giving high accuracy results and taking into account a number of factors important in the creation of the documentation of historical structures. In addition, thanks to the designed algorithm, the final result can be obtained in a very short time at a high level of automation, in relation to similar types of studies, meaning that it would be possible to obtain a significant data set for further analyses and more detailed monitoring of the state of the historical structures.

Keeping Knowledge in Site

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Livingstone, David N.

2010-01-01

Recent work on the history of education has been registering a "spatial turn" in its historiography. These reflections from a historical geographer working on the spatiality of knowledge enterprises (science in particular) reviews some recent developments in the field before turning to three themes--landscape agency, geographies of textuality, and…

Trends and causes of historical wetland loss in coastal Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernier, Julie

2013-01-01

Wetland losses in the northern Gulf Coast region of the United States are so extensive that they represent critical concerns to government environmental agencies and natural resource managers. In Louisiana, almost 3,000 square kilometers (km2) of low-lying wetlands converted to open water between 1956 and 2004, and billions of dollars in State and Federal funding have been allocated for coastal restoration projects intended to compensate for some of those wetland losses. Recent research at the St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) focused on understanding the physical processes and human activities that contributed to historical wetland loss in coastal Louisiana and the spatial and temporal trends of that loss. The physical processes (land-surface subsidence and sediment erosion) responsible for historical wetland loss were quantified by comparing marsh-surface elevations, water depths, and vertical displacements of stratigraphic contacts at 10 study areas in the Mississippi River delta plain and 6 sites at Sabine National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR) in the western chenier plain. The timing and extent of land loss at the study areas was determined by comparing historical maps, aerial photographs, and satellite imagery; the temporal and spatial trends of those losses were compared with historical subsidence rates and hydrocarbon production trends.

Spatial genetic structure in Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima and Beta macrocarpa reveals the effect of contrasting mating system, influence of marine currents, and footprints of postglacial recolonization routes.

PubMed

Leys, Marie; Petit, Eric J; El-Bahloul, Yasmina; Liso, Camille; Fournet, Sylvain; Arnaud, Jean-François

2014-05-01

Understanding the factors that contribute to population genetic divergence across a species' range is a long-standing goal in evolutionary biology and ecological genetics. We examined the relative importance of historical and ecological features in shaping the present-day spatial patterns of genetic structure in two related plant species, Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima and Beta macrocarpa. Using nuclear and mitochondrial markers, we surveyed 93 populations from Brittany (France) to Morocco - the southern limit of their species' range distribution. Whereas B. macrocarpa showed a genotypic structure and a high level of genetic differentiation indicative of selfing, the population genetic structure of B. vulgaris subsp. maritima was consistent with an outcrossing mating system. We further showed (1) a strong geographic clustering in coastal B. vulgaris subsp. maritima populations that highlighted the influence of marine currents in shaping different lineages and (2) a peculiar genetic structure of inland B. vulgaris subsp. maritima populations that could indicate the admixture of distinct evolutionary lineages and recent expansions associated with anthropogenic disturbances. Spatial patterns of nuclear diversity and differentiation also supported a stepwise recolonization of Europe from Atlantic-Mediterranean refugia after the last glacial period, with leading-edge expansions. However, cytoplasmic diversity was not impacted by postglacial recolonization: stochastic long-distance seed dispersal mediated by major oceanic currents may mitigate the common patterns of reduced cytoplasmic diversity observed for edge populations. Overall, the patterns we documented here challenge the general view of reduced genetic diversity at the edge of a species' range distribution and provide clues for understanding how life-history and major geographic features interact to shape the distribution of genetic diversity.

Spatial genetic structure in Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima and Beta macrocarpa reveals the effect of contrasting mating system, influence of marine currents, and footprints of postglacial recolonization routes

PubMed Central

Leys, Marie; Petit, Eric J; El-Bahloul, Yasmina; Liso, Camille; Fournet, Sylvain; Arnaud, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Understanding the factors that contribute to population genetic divergence across a species' range is a long-standing goal in evolutionary biology and ecological genetics. We examined the relative importance of historical and ecological features in shaping the present-day spatial patterns of genetic structure in two related plant species, Beta vulgaris subsp. maritima and Beta macrocarpa. Using nuclear and mitochondrial markers, we surveyed 93 populations from Brittany (France) to Morocco – the southern limit of their species' range distribution. Whereas B. macrocarpa showed a genotypic structure and a high level of genetic differentiation indicative of selfing, the population genetic structure of B. vulgaris subsp. maritima was consistent with an outcrossing mating system. We further showed (1) a strong geographic clustering in coastal B. vulgaris subsp. maritima populations that highlighted the influence of marine currents in shaping different lineages and (2) a peculiar genetic structure of inland B. vulgaris subsp. maritima populations that could indicate the admixture of distinct evolutionary lineages and recent expansions associated with anthropogenic disturbances. Spatial patterns of nuclear diversity and differentiation also supported a stepwise recolonization of Europe from Atlantic-Mediterranean refugia after the last glacial period, with leading-edge expansions. However, cytoplasmic diversity was not impacted by postglacial recolonization: stochastic long-distance seed dispersal mediated by major oceanic currents may mitigate the common patterns of reduced cytoplasmic diversity observed for edge populations. Overall, the patterns we documented here challenge the general view of reduced genetic diversity at the edge of a species' range distribution and provide clues for understanding how life-history and major geographic features interact to shape the distribution of genetic diversity. PMID:24963380

Understanding high magnitude flood risk: evidence from the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.

2009-04-01

The average length of gauged river flow records in the UK is ~25 years, which presents a problem in determining flood risk for high-magnitude flood events. Severe floods have been recorded in many UK catchments during the past 10 years, increasing the uncertainty in conventional flood risk estimates based on river flow records. Current uncertainty in flood risk has implications for society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and water resource managers (flood/drought risk). An alternative approach is required which can improve current understanding of the flood frequency/magnitude relationship. Historical documentary accounts are now recognised as a valuable resource when considering the flood frequency/magnitude relationship, but little consideration has been given to the temporal and spatial distribution of these records. Building on previous research based on British rivers (urban centre): Ouse (York), Trent (Nottingham), Tay (Perth), Severn (Shrewsbury), Dee (Chester), Great Ouse (Cambridge), Sussex Ouse (Lewes), Thames (Oxford), Tweed (Kelso) and Tyne (Hexham), this work considers the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flooding. The selected sites provide a network covering many of the largest river catchments in Britain, based on urban centres with long detailed documentary flood histories. The chronologies offer an opportunity to assess long-term patterns of flooding, indirectly determining periods of climatic variability and potentially increased geomorphic activity. This research represents the first coherent large scale analysis undertaken of historical multi-catchment flood chronologies, providing an unparalleled network of sites, permitting analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flood patterns on a national scale.

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

Habitat Fragmentation and Species Extirpation in Freshwater Ecosystems; Causes of Range Decline of the Indus River Dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor)

PubMed Central

Braulik, Gill T.; Arshad, Masood; Noureen, Uzma; Northridge, Simon P.

2014-01-01

Habitat fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing rapidly, however the understanding of extinction debt and species decline in riverine habitat fragments lags behind that in other ecosystems. The mighty rivers that drain the Himalaya - the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong and Yangtze - are amongst the world’s most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. Many hundreds of dams have been constructed, are under construction, or are planned on these rivers and large hydrological changes and losses of biodiversity have occurred and are expected to continue. This study examines the causes of range decline of the Indus dolphin, which inhabits one of the world’s most modified rivers, to demonstrate how we may expect other vertebrate populations to respond as planned dams and water developments come into operation. The historical range of the Indus dolphin has been fragmented into 17 river sections by diversion dams; dolphin sighting and interview surveys show that river dolphins have been extirpated from ten river sections, they persist in 6, and are of unknown status in one section. Seven potential factors influencing the temporal and spatial pattern of decline were considered in three regression model sets. Low dry-season river discharge, due to water abstraction at irrigation barrages, was the principal factor that explained the dolphin’s range decline, influencing 1) the spatial pattern of persistence, 2) the temporal pattern of subpopulation extirpation, and 3) the speed of extirpation after habitat fragmentation. Dolphins were more likely to persist in the core of the former range because water diversions are concentrated near the range periphery. Habitat fragmentation and degradation of the habitat were inextricably intertwined and in combination caused the catastrophic decline of the Indus dolphin. PMID:25029270

Habitat fragmentation and species extirpation in freshwater ecosystems; causes of range decline of the Indus river dolphin (Platanista gangetica minor).

PubMed

Braulik, Gill T; Arshad, Masood; Noureen, Uzma; Northridge, Simon P

2014-01-01

Habitat fragmentation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing rapidly, however the understanding of extinction debt and species decline in riverine habitat fragments lags behind that in other ecosystems. The mighty rivers that drain the Himalaya - the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong and Yangtze - are amongst the world's most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems. Many hundreds of dams have been constructed, are under construction, or are planned on these rivers and large hydrological changes and losses of biodiversity have occurred and are expected to continue. This study examines the causes of range decline of the Indus dolphin, which inhabits one of the world's most modified rivers, to demonstrate how we may expect other vertebrate populations to respond as planned dams and water developments come into operation. The historical range of the Indus dolphin has been fragmented into 17 river sections by diversion dams; dolphin sighting and interview surveys show that river dolphins have been extirpated from ten river sections, they persist in 6, and are of unknown status in one section. Seven potential factors influencing the temporal and spatial pattern of decline were considered in three regression model sets. Low dry-season river discharge, due to water abstraction at irrigation barrages, was the principal factor that explained the dolphin's range decline, influencing 1) the spatial pattern of persistence, 2) the temporal pattern of subpopulation extirpation, and 3) the speed of extirpation after habitat fragmentation. Dolphins were more likely to persist in the core of the former range because water diversions are concentrated near the range periphery. Habitat fragmentation and degradation of the habitat were inextricably intertwined and in combination caused the catastrophic decline of the Indus dolphin.

Decorrelation scales for Arctic Ocean hydrography - Part I: Amerasian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumata, Hiroshi; Kauker, Frank; Karcher, Michael; Rabe, Benjamin; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Behrendt, Axel; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Schauer, Ursula; Shimada, Koji; Cho, Kyoung-Ho; Kikuchi, Takashi

2018-03-01

Any use of observational data for data assimilation requires adequate information of their representativeness in space and time. This is particularly important for sparse, non-synoptic data, which comprise the bulk of oceanic in situ observations in the Arctic. To quantify spatial and temporal scales of temperature and salinity variations, we estimate the autocorrelation function and associated decorrelation scales for the Amerasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. For this purpose, we compile historical measurements from 1980 to 2015. Assuming spatial and temporal homogeneity of the decorrelation scale in the basin interior (abyssal plain area), we calculate autocorrelations as a function of spatial distance and temporal lag. The examination of the functional form of autocorrelation in each depth range reveals that the autocorrelation is well described by a Gaussian function in space and time. We derive decorrelation scales of 150-200 km in space and 100-300 days in time. These scales are directly applicable to quantify the representation error, which is essential for use of ocean in situ measurements in data assimilation. We also describe how the estimated autocorrelation function and decorrelation scale should be applied for cost function calculation in a data assimilation system.

Multiscale drivers of spatially variable grass production and loss in the Chihuahuan Desert

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Historic regime shifts from grass- to shrub-dominated states have been widespread in the Chihuahuan Desert and other arid and semiarid regions globally. These patterns of grass production and shifts to shrub dominance are spatially variable, and show a weak correlation with precipitation, suggesting...

IMPACTS OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE ON WOLF RESTORATION SUCCESS: PLANNING A REINTRODUCTION PROGRAM USING STATIC AND DYNAMIC SPATIAL MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Mammalian carnivores are increasingly the focus of reintroduction attempts in areas from which
they have been extirpated by historic persecution. We used static and dynamic spatial models to evaluate whether a proposed wolf reintroduction to the southern Rocky Mountain region ...

Lessons learned in historical mapping of conifer and oak in the North Coast

Treesearch

Melissa V. Eitzel; Maggi Kelly; Lenya N. Quinn-Davidson

2015-01-01

Conifer encroachment into oak woodlands is becoming a pressing concern for oak conservation, particularly in California's north coast. We use Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) with historical aerial imagery from 1948 and recent high-spatial-resolution images from 2009 to explore the potential for mapping encroachment using remote sensing. We find that pre-...

Historical forest baselines reveal potential for continued carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Jeanine M. Rhemtulla; David J. Mladenoff; Murray K. Clayton

2009-01-01

One-third of net CO2 emissions to the atmosphere since 1850 are the result of land-use change, primarily from the clearing of forests for timber and agriculture, but quantifying these changes is complicated by the lack of historical data on both former ecosystem conditions and the extent and spatial configuration of subsequent land use. Using...

Estimating Historical Eastern North Pacific Blue Whale Catches Using Spatial Calling Patterns

PubMed Central

Monnahan, Cole C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Ivashchenko, Yulia V.; Oleson, Erin M.

2014-01-01

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were exploited extensively around the world and remain endangered. In the North Pacific their population structure is unclear and current status unknown, with the exception of a well-studied eastern North Pacific (ENP) population. Despite existing abundance estimates for the ENP population, it is difficult to estimate pre-exploitation abundance levels and gauge their recovery because historical catches of the ENP population are difficult to separate from catches of other populations in the North Pacific. We collated previously unreported Soviet catches and combined these with known catches to form the most current estimates of North Pacific blue whale catches. We split these conflated catches using recorded acoustic calls from throughout the North Pacific, the knowledge that the ENP population produces a different call than blue whales in the western North Pacific (WNP). The catches were split by estimating spatiotemporal occurrence of blue whales with generalized additive models fitted to acoustic call patterns, which predict the probability a catch belonged to the ENP population based on the proportion of calls of each population recorded by latitude, longitude, and month. When applied to the conflated historical catches, which totaled 9,773, we estimate that ENP blue whale catches totaled 3,411 (95% range 2,593 to 4,114) from 1905–1971, and amounted to 35% (95% range 27% to 42%) of all catches in the North Pacific. Thus most catches in the North Pacific were for WNP blue whales, totaling 6,362 (95% range 5,659 to 7,180). The uncertainty in the acoustic data influence the results substantially more than uncertainty in catch locations and dates, but the results are fairly insensitive to the ecological assumptions made in the analysis. The results of this study provide information for future studies investigating the recovery of these populations and the impact of continuing and future sources of anthropogenic mortality. PMID:24892427

Estimating historical eastern North Pacific blue whale catches using spatial calling patterns.

PubMed

Monnahan, Cole C; Branch, Trevor A; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ivashchenko, Yulia V; Oleson, Erin M

2014-01-01

Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) were exploited extensively around the world and remain endangered. In the North Pacific their population structure is unclear and current status unknown, with the exception of a well-studied eastern North Pacific (ENP) population. Despite existing abundance estimates for the ENP population, it is difficult to estimate pre-exploitation abundance levels and gauge their recovery because historical catches of the ENP population are difficult to separate from catches of other populations in the North Pacific. We collated previously unreported Soviet catches and combined these with known catches to form the most current estimates of North Pacific blue whale catches. We split these conflated catches using recorded acoustic calls from throughout the North Pacific, the knowledge that the ENP population produces a different call than blue whales in the western North Pacific (WNP). The catches were split by estimating spatiotemporal occurrence of blue whales with generalized additive models fitted to acoustic call patterns, which predict the probability a catch belonged to the ENP population based on the proportion of calls of each population recorded by latitude, longitude, and month. When applied to the conflated historical catches, which totaled 9,773, we estimate that ENP blue whale catches totaled 3,411 (95% range 2,593 to 4,114) from 1905-1971, and amounted to 35% (95% range 27% to 42%) of all catches in the North Pacific. Thus most catches in the North Pacific were for WNP blue whales, totaling 6,362 (95% range 5,659 to 7,180). The uncertainty in the acoustic data influence the results substantially more than uncertainty in catch locations and dates, but the results are fairly insensitive to the ecological assumptions made in the analysis. The results of this study provide information for future studies investigating the recovery of these populations and the impact of continuing and future sources of anthropogenic mortality.

Spatial database of mining-related features in 2001 at selected phosphate mines, Bannock, Bear Lake, Bingham, and Caribou Counties, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyle, Phillip R.; Kayser, Helen Z.

2006-01-01

This report describes the spatial database, PHOSMINE01, and the processes used to delineate mining-related features (active and inactive/historical) in the core of the southeastern Idaho phosphate resource area. The spatial data have varying degrees of accuracy and attribution detail. Classification of areas by type of mining-related activity at active mines is generally detailed; however, for many of the closed or inactive mines the spatial coverage does not differentiate mining-related surface disturbance features. Nineteen phosphate mine sites are included in the study, three active phosphate mines - Enoch Valley (nearing closure), Rasmussen Ridge, and Smoky Canyon - and 16 inactive (or historical) phosphate mines - Ballard, Champ, Conda, Diamond Gulch, Dry Valley, Gay, Georgetown Canyon, Henry, Home Canyon, Lanes Creek, Maybe Canyon, Mountain Fuel, Trail Canyon, Rattlesnake, Waterloo, and Wooley Valley. Approximately 6,000 hc (15,000 ac), or 60 km2 (23 mi2) of phosphate mining-related surface disturbance are documented in the spatial coverage. Spatial data for the inactive mines is current because no major changes have occurred; however, the spatial data for active mines were derived from digital maps prepared in early 2001 and therefore recent activity is not included. The inactive Gay Mine has the largest total area of disturbance, 1,900 hc (4,700 ac) or about 19 km2 (7.4 mi2). It encompasses over three times the disturbance area of the next largest mine, the Conda Mine with 610 hc (1,500 ac), and it is nearly four times the area of the Smoky Canyon Mine, the largest of the active mines with about 550 hc (1,400 ac). The wide range of phosphate mining-related surface disturbance features (141) from various industry maps were reduced to 15 types or features based on a generic classification system used for this study: mine pit; backfilled mine pit; waste rock dump; adit and waste rock dump; ore stockpile; topsoil stockpile; tailings or tailings pond; sediment catchment; facilities; road; railroad; water reservoir; disturbed land, undifferentiated; and undisturbed land. In summary, the spatial coverage includes polygons totaling about 1,100 hc (2,800 ac) of mine pits, 440 hc (1100 ac) of backfilled mine pits, 1,600 hc (3,800 ac) of waste rock dumps, 31 hc (75 ac) of ore stockpiles, and 44 hc (110 ac) of tailings or tailings ponds. Areas of undifferentiated phosphate mining-related land disturbances, called 'disturbed land, undifferentiated,' total about 2,200 hc (5,500 ac) or nearly 22 km2 (8.6 mi2). No determination has been made as to status of reclamation on any of the lands. Subsequent site-specific studies to delineate distinct mine features will allow additional revisions to this spatial database.

China's land cover and land use change from 1700 to 2005: Estimations from high-resolution satellite data and historical archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Mingliang; Tian, Hanqin

2010-09-01

One of the major limitations in assessing the impacts of human activities on global biogeochemical cycles and climate is a shortage of reliable data on historical land cover and land use change (LCLUC). China had extreme discrepancies in estimating contemporary and historical patterns of LCLUC over the last 3 centuries because of its geographical complexity, long history of land use, and limited national surveys. This study aims to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of China's LCLUC during 1700-2005 by reconstructing historical gridded data sets from high-resolution satellite data and long-term historical survey data. During this 300 year period, the major characteristics of LCLUC in China have been shrinking forest (decreased by 22%) and expanding cropland (increased by 42%) and urban areas (including urban and rural settlements, factories, quarries, mining, and other built-up land). New cropland areas have come almost equally from both forested and nonforested land. This study also revealed that substantial conversion between forest and woodland can be attributed to forest harvest, forest regeneration, and land degradation. During 1980-2005, LCLUC was characterized by shrinking cropland, expanding urban and forest areas, and large decadal variations on a national level. LCLUC in China showed significant spatial variations during different time periods, which were caused by spatial heterogeneity in vegetation, soils, and climate and regional imbalance in economy development. During 1700-2005, forests shrunk rapidly while croplands expanded in the northeast and southwest of China. During 1980-2005, we found a serious loss of cropland and urban sprawl in the eastern plain, north, and southeast regions of China and a large increase in forested area in the southeast and southwest regions. The reconstructed LCLUC data sets from this study could be used to assess the impacts of land use change on biogeochemical cycles, the water cycle, and the regional climate in China. To further eliminate uncertainties in this data set and make reliable projections of LCLUC for the future, we need to improve our understanding of the drivers of LCLUC and work toward developing an advanced, spatially explicit land use model.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Uncovering the historic environmental hazards of urban brownfields.

PubMed

Litt, Jill S; Burke, Thomas A

2002-12-01

In Baltimore, over 1,000 vacant industrial sites persist across its urban landscape, yet little is known about the potential environmental health risks that may undermine future cleanup and redevelopment activities and the health of those in communities near these sites. This study examined the characteristics of urban brownfield properties in southeast Baltimore, Maryland, and screened sites for their potential environmental hazards. In addition, demographic and health data were evaluated to profile the social and health status of those in brownfield communities. The results show that brownfields in southeast Baltimore represent a range of historic operations, including metal smelting, oil refining, warehousing, and transportation, as well as paints, plastics, and metals manufacturing. The screening method identified a range of substances associated with these properties, including heavy metals, chlorinated hydrocarbons, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, all of which are suspected or recognized toxicants, and many of which are persistent in the environment. Spatially, these sites are concentrated in white, working class neighborhoods in which poverty levels exceed and educational attainment lags behind state and national averages. Moreover, these sites are concentrated in communities in which excess mortality rates due to respiratory disease, cancer, and heart disease exist when compared to the city, state, and national averages. This investigation demonstrated the usefulness of historic archives, real estate records, regulatory files, and national hazard-tracking systems based on standard industrial classification (SIC) to screen brownfield properties for their hazard potential. This analysis provides the foundation for further site monitoring and testing, cleanup and redevelopment priority setting, risk management strategies, and neighborhood planning, and it illustrates the need for increased health surveillance and disease prevention strategies in affected communities.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Increased tree-ring network density reveals more precise estimations of sub-regional hydroclimate variability and climate dynamics in the Midwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin T.; Harley, Grant L.

2017-08-01

Understanding the historic variability in the hydroclimate provides important information on possible extreme dry or wet periods that in turn inform water management plans. Tree rings have long provided historical context of hydroclimate variability of the U.S. However, the tree-ring network used to create these countrywide gridded reconstructions is sparse in certain locations, such as the Midwest. Here, we increase ( n = 20) the spatial resolution of the tree-ring network in southern Indiana and compare a summer (June-August) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction to existing gridded reconstructions of PDSI for this region. We find both droughts and pluvials that were previously unknown that rival the most intense PDSI values during the instrumental period. Additionally, historical drought occurred in Indiana that eclipsed instrumental conditions with regard to severity and duration. During the period 1962-2004 CE, we find that teleconnections of drought conditions through the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation have a strong influence ( r = -0.60, p < 0.01) on secondary tree growth in this region for the late spring-early summer season. These findings highlight the importance of continuing to increase the spatial resolution of the tree-ring network used to infer past climate dynamics to capture the sub-regional spatial variability. Increasing the spatial resolution of the tree-ring network for a given region can better identify sub-regional variability, improve the accuracy of regional tree-ring PDSI reconstructions, and provide better information for climatic teleconnections.

Spatial distribution and implications to sources of halogenated flame retardants in riverine sediments of Taizhou, an intense e-waste recycling area in eastern China.

PubMed

Zhou, Shanshan; Fu, Jie; He, Huan; Fu, Jianjie; Tang, Qiaozhi; Dong, Minfeng; Pan, Yongqiang; Li, An; Liu, Weiping; Zhang, Limin

2017-10-01

Concentrations and spatial distribution pattern of organohalogen flame retardants were investigated in the riverine surface sediments from Taizhou, an intensive e-waste recycling region in China. The analytes were syn- and anti- Dechlorane Plus (DP), Dechloranes 602, 603, and 604, a DP monoadduct, two dechlorinated DPs and 8 congeners of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The concentrations of Σ 8 PBDEs, ΣDP, ΣDec600s, and ΣDP-degradates ranged from <100 to 172,000, 100 to 55,000, not detectable (nd) to 1600, and nd to 2800 pg/g dry weight, respectively. BDE-209 and DP, both have been manufactured in China, had similar spatial distribution patterns in the study area, featured by distinctly recognizable hotspots some of which are in proximity to known e-waste dumping or metal recycling facilities. Such patterns were largely shared by Dec602 and dechlorinated DP, although their concentration levels were much lower. These major flame retardants significantly correlate with each other, and cluster together in the loading plot of principle component analysis. In contrast, most non-deca PBDE congeners do not correlate with DPs. Dec604 stood out having distinctly different spatial distribution pattern, which could be linked to historical use of mirex. Organic matter content of the sediment was not the dominant factor in determining the spatial pattern of pollution by halogenated flame retardants in the rivers of this study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the Use of Argos Satellite Data for Home Range and Long Distance Migration Studies of Marine Animals

PubMed Central

Hoenner, Xavier; Whiting, Scott D.; Hindell, Mark A.; McMahon, Clive R.

2012-01-01

Accurately quantifying animals’ spatial utilisation is critical for conservation, but has long remained an elusive goal due to technological impediments. The Argos telemetry system has been extensively used to remotely track marine animals, however location estimates are characterised by substantial spatial error. State-space models (SSM) constitute a robust statistical approach to refine Argos tracking data by accounting for observation errors and stochasticity in animal movement. Despite their wide use in ecology, few studies have thoroughly quantified the error associated with SSM predicted locations and no research has assessed their validity for describing animal movement behaviour. We compared home ranges and migratory pathways of seven hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) estimated from (a) highly accurate Fastloc GPS data and (b) locations computed using common Argos data analytical approaches. Argos 68th percentile error was <1 km for LC 1, 2, and 3 while markedly less accurate (>4 km) for LC ≤0. Argos error structure was highly longitudinally skewed and was, for all LC, adequately modelled by a Student’s t distribution. Both habitat use and migration routes were best recreated using SSM locations post-processed by re-adding good Argos positions (LC 1, 2 and 3) and filtering terrestrial points (mean distance to migratory tracks ± SD = 2.2±2.4 km; mean home range overlap and error ratio  = 92.2% and 285.6 respectively). This parsimonious and objective statistical procedure however still markedly overestimated true home range sizes, especially for animals exhibiting restricted movements. Post-processing SSM locations nonetheless constitutes the best analytical technique for remotely sensed Argos tracking data and we therefore recommend using this approach to rework historical Argos datasets for better estimation of animal spatial utilisation for research and evidence-based conservation purposes. PMID:22808241

Comprehensive Evaluation of 1850-2100 Active Layer Thickness and Thawing Index Variability across the Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frauenfeld, O. W.; Peng, X.; Zhang, T.

2016-12-01

Both the thawing index (TI) and active layer thickness (ALT) can be useful indicators of climate change in cold regions and have important implications for various surface-atmosphere interactions. Here, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the Northern Hemisphere TI and ALT under historical and projected climate change. We combine gridded and station-based observations to assess the multi-model ensemble mean of 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models over 1850-2005. The TI and ALT are assessed based on 1901-2014 Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data, and observational ALT from 348 station locations across the Northern Hemisphere. We then employ three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) from the same CMIP5 multi-model ensemble means to evaluate changes for 2006-2100. Over the historical period, the TI varies from 0-11,000°C-days in the Northern Hemisphere, and we find good agreement between CMIP5 models and CRU data; however, the models generally underestimate observed TI and its long-term trends. Over the 2006-2100 period, the multi-model ensemble averaged TI increases significantly for all three RCPs, ranging from 1.5°C-days/yr for RCP 2.6, to 14°C-days/yr for RCP 8.5. The spatial variations in ALT from observing stations exhibit significant variability and generally range from 80-320 cm across the Northern Hemisphere, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the European Alps. Calculating observational ALT for 1971-2000 from CRU, we find lower values (30-650 cm). The CMIP5 climatology agrees well with the CRU estimates. ALT trends over the observational period are generally less than 1.5 cm/decade, but as high as 3 cm/decade in some isolated regions. While this general trend magnitude agrees with that from CMIP5, the multi-model ensemble underestimates trends and exhibits much less spatial variability. Projected trends range from 0.77 cm/decade in RCP 2.6, to 6.5 cm/decade in RCP 8.5 in the permafrost regions across the Northern Hemisphere. Over the observational period, summer air temperature and precipitation are found to be the main drivers of ALT variability. However, the declining Arctic sea ice trend is also strongly negatively correlated with ALT increases, pointing to a common driver of these cryospheric changes.

Land-use and land-cover scenarios and spatial modeling at the regional scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2012-01-01

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has altered a large part of the earth's surface. Scenarios of potential future LULC change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on biodiversity, carbon fluxes, climate change, hydrology, and many other ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing potential future LULC change in the United States, using an approach based on scenario construction and spatially explicit modeling. Similar modeling techniques are being used to produce historical LULC maps from 1940 to present. With the combination of backcast and forecast LULC data, the USGS is providing consistent LULC data for historical, current, and future time frames to support a variety of research applications.

Development of Flood Inundation Libraries using Historical Satellite Data and DEM for Part of Godavari Basin: An Approach Towards Better Flood Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, C. M.; Rao, G. S.; Patro, B.

2014-12-01

Conventional method of identifying areas to be inundated for issuing flood alert require inputs like discharge data, fine resolution digital elevation model (DEM), software for modelling and technically trained manpower to interpret the results meaningfully. Due to poor availability of these inputs, including good network of historical hydrological observations and limitation of time, quick flood early warning becomes a difficult task. Presently, based on the daily river water level and forecasted water level for major river systems in India, flood alerts are provided which are non-spatial in nature and does not help in understanding the inundation (spatial dimension) which may be caused at various water levels. In the present paper a concept for developing a series of flood-inundation map libraries two approaches are adopted one by correlating inundation extent derived from historical satellite data analysis with the corresponding water level recorded by the gauge station and the other simulation of inundation using digital elevation model (DEM's) is demonstrated for a part of Godavari Basin. The approach explained can be one of quick and cost-effective method for building a library of flood inundation extents, which can be utilized during flood disaster for alerting population and taking the relief and rescue operations. This layer can be visualized from a spatial dimension together with other spatial information like administrative boundaries, transport network, land use and land cover, digital elevation data and satellite images for better understanding and visualization of areas to be inundated spatially on free web based earth visualization portals like ISRO's Bhuvan portal (http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in). This can help decision makers in taking quick appropriate measures for warning, planning relief and rescue operations for the population to get affected under that river stage.

Spatial variability of metals in the inter-tidal sediments of the Medway Estuary, Kent, UK.

PubMed

Spencer, Kate L

2002-09-01

Concentrations of major and trace metals were determined in eight sediment cores collected from the inter-tidal zone of the Medway Estuary, Kent, UK. Metal associations and potential sources have been investigated using principal component analysis. These data provide the first detailed geochemical survey of recent sediments in the Medway Estuary. Metal concentrations in surface sediments lie in the mid to lower range for UK estuarine sediments indicating that the Medway receives low but appreciable contaminant inputs. Vertical metal distributions reveal variable redox zonation across the estuary and historically elevated anthropogenic inputs. Peak concentrations of Cu, Pb and Zn can be traced laterally across the estuary and their positions indicate periods of past erosion and/or non-deposition. However, low rates of sediment accumulation do not allow these sub surface maxima to be used as accurate geochemical marker horizons. The salt marshes and inter-tidal mud flats in the Medway Estuary are experiencing erosion, however the erosion of historically contaminated sediments is unlikely to re-release significant amounts of heavy metals to the estuarine system.

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America.

PubMed

Stevens, Jens T; Safford, Hugh D; North, Malcolm P; Fried, Jeremy S; Gray, Andrew N; Brown, Peter M; Dolanc, Christopher R; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Falk, Donald A; Farris, Calvin A; Franklin, Jerry F; Fulé, Peter Z; Hagmann, R Keala; Knapp, Eric E; Miller, Jay D; Smith, Douglas F; Swetnam, Thomas W; Taylor, Alan H

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the "stand age" variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical "mixed-severity" fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data.

Average Stand Age from Forest Inventory Plots Does Not Describe Historical Fire Regimes in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed-Conifer Forests of Western North America

PubMed Central

Stevens, Jens T.; Safford, Hugh D.; North, Malcolm P.; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gray, Andrew N.; Brown, Peter M.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Falk, Donald A.; Farris, Calvin A.; Franklin, Jerry F.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Hagmann, R. Keala; Knapp, Eric E.; Miller, Jay D.; Smith, Douglas F.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Taylor, Alan H.

2016-01-01

Quantifying historical fire regimes provides important information for managing contemporary forests. Historical fire frequency and severity can be estimated using several methods; each method has strengths and weaknesses and presents challenges for interpretation and verification. Recent efforts to quantify the timing of historical high-severity fire events in forests of western North America have assumed that the “stand age” variable from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program reflects the timing of historical high-severity (i.e. stand-replacing) fire in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests. To test this assumption, we re-analyze the dataset used in a previous analysis, and compare information from fire history records with information from co-located FIA plots. We demonstrate that 1) the FIA stand age variable does not reflect the large range of individual tree ages in the FIA plots: older trees comprised more than 10% of pre-stand age basal area in 58% of plots analyzed and more than 30% of pre-stand age basal area in 32% of plots, and 2) recruitment events are not necessarily related to high-severity fire occurrence. Because the FIA stand age variable is estimated from a sample of tree ages within the tree size class containing a plurality of canopy trees in the plot, it does not necessarily include the oldest trees, especially in uneven-aged stands. Thus, the FIA stand age variable does not indicate whether the trees in the predominant size class established in response to severe fire, or established during the absence of fire. FIA stand age was not designed to measure the time since a stand-replacing disturbance. Quantification of historical “mixed-severity” fire regimes must be explicit about the spatial scale of high-severity fire effects, which is not possible using FIA stand age data. PMID:27196621

Linking Temporal-Optimization and Spatial-Simulation Models for Forest Planning

Treesearch

Larry A. Leefers; Eric J. Gustafson; Phillip Freeman

2003-01-01

Increasingly, resource management agencies and researchers have turned their analysis and modeling efforts towards spatial and temporal information. This is driven by the need to address wildlife concerns, landscape issues, and social/economic questions. Historically, the USDA Forest Service has used optimization models (i.e., FORPLAN and Spectrum) for timber harvest...

Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

2017-01-01

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

African hydroclimatic variability during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, David J.; De Cort, Gijs; Chase, Brian M.; Verschuren, Dirk; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Grab, Stefan W.

2016-12-01

The African continent is characterised by a wide range of hydroclimate regimes, ranging from humid equatorial West Africa to the arid deserts in the northern and southern subtropics. The livelihoods of much of its population are also vulnerable to future climate change, mainly through variability in rainfall affecting water resource availability. A growing number of data sources indicate that such hydroclimatic variability is an intrinsic component of Africa's natural environment. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa 2k Working Group, presents an extensive assessment and discussion of proxy, historical and instrumental evidence for hydroclimatic variability across the African continent, spanning the last two millennia. While the African palaeoenvironmental record is characterised by spatially disjunctive datasets, with often less-than-optimal temporal resolution and chronological control, the available evidence allows the assessment of prominent spatial patterns of palaeomoisture variability through time. In this study, we focus sequentially on data for six major time windows: the first millennium CE, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1250 CE), the Little Ice Age (1250-1750 CE), the end of the LIA (1750-1850 CE), the Early Modern Period (1850-1950), and the period of recent warming (1950 onwards). This results in a continent-wide synthesis of regional moisture-balance trends through history, allowing consideration of possible driving mechanisms, and suggestions for future research.

Historical fire and vegetation dynamics in dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest, USA, and relationships to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat conservation

Treesearch

Rebecca S.H. Kennedy; Michael C. Wimberly

2009-01-01

Regional conservation planning frequently relies on general assumptions about historical disturbance regimes to inform decisions about landscape restoration, reserve allocations, and landscape management. Spatially explicit simulations of landscape dynamics provide quantitative estimates of landscape structure and allow for the testing of alternative scenarios. We used...

Tree migration detection through comparisons of historic and current forest inventories

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Christopher M. Oswalt; James A. Westfall; Charles H. Perry; Mark N. Nelson

2009-01-01

Changes in tree species distributions are a potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. The examination of tree species shifts in forests of the eastern United States largely has been limited to modeling activities with little empirical analysis of long-term forest inventory datasets. The goal of this study was to compare historic and current spatial...

Making Bengali Brick Lane: claiming and contesting space in East London.

PubMed

Alexander, Claire

2011-06-01

Based on a recent empirical project on 'the Bengal diaspora', the paper explores the construction and contestation of meanings around the iconic East London street, Brick Lane. Taking the 2006 protests around the film Brick Lane as its starting point, the paper draws on original interviews conducted in 2008 with a range of Bengali community representatives, to examine the narratives of space, community and belonging that emerge around the idea of Brick Lane as the 'cultural heartland' of the British Bangladeshi community. By exploring the representation, production and contestation of 'social space' through everyday practices, the paper engages with and contests the representation of minority ethnic 'communities' in the context of contemporary multicultural London and examines the process of 'claiming' and 'making' space in East London. In so doing, the paper contributes to a critical tradition that challenges essentialising and pathologizing accounts of ethnic communities and racialized spaces, or that places them outside of broader social and historical processes - redolent, for example, in contemporary discussions about 'parallel lives' or 'the clash of civilizations'. By contrast, this paper views social space as made through movement and narration, with a particular emphasis on the social agency of local Bengali inhabitants and the multiple meanings that emerge from within this 'imagined community'. However, rather than simply stressing the unfinished and processual nature of spatial meanings, the paper insists on the historical, embodied and affective dimensions of such meaning making, and a reckoning with the broader social and political landscape within which such meanings take shape. The focus on Brick Lane provides an empirically rich, geographically and historically located lens through which to explore the complex role of ethnicity as a marker of social space and of spatial practices of resistance and identity. By exploring Bengali Brick Lane through its narratives of past, present and future, these stories attest to the symbolic and emotional importance of such spaces, and to their complex imaginings. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2011.

Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Mladenoff, David J; Cogbill, Charles V; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J; Jackson, Stephen T; Dietze, Michael C; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S; Williams, John W

2016-01-01

EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management.

Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass

PubMed Central

Mladenoff, David J.; Cogbill, Charles V.; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Dietze, Michael C.; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Background EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management. PMID:27935944

Identifying suitable sites for Florida panther reintroduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

2006-01-01

A major objective of the 1995 Florida Panther (Puma concolor cory) Recovery Plan is the establishment of 2 additional panther populations within the historic range. Our goal was to identify prospective sites for Florida panther reintroduction within the historic range based on quantitative landscape assessments. First, we delineated 86 panther home ranges using telemetry data collected from 1981 to 2001 in south Florida to develop a Mahalanobis distance (D2) habitat model, using 4 anthropogenic variables and 3 landscape variables mapped at a 500-m resolution. From that analysis, we identified 9 potential reintroduction sites of sufficient size to support a panther population. We then developed a similar D2 model at a higher spatial resolution to quantify the area of favorable panther habitat at each site. To address potential for the population to expand, we calculated the amount of favorable habitat adjacent to each prospective reintroduction site within a range of dispersal distances of female panthers. We then added those totals to the contiguous patches to estimate the total amount of effective panther habitat at each site. Finally, we developed an expert-assisted model to rank and incorporate potentially important habitat variables that were not appropriate for our empirical analysis (e.g., area of public lands, livestock density). Anthropogenic factors heavily influenced both the landscape and the expert-assisted models. Of the 9 areas we identified, the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, Ozark National Forest, and Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge regions had the highest combination of effective habitat area and expert opinion scores. Sensitivity analyses indicated that variability among key model parameters did not affect the high ranking of those sites. Those sites should be considered as starting points for the field evaluation of potential reintroduction sites.

Tiger on the prowl: Invasion history and spatio-temporal genetic structure of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) in the Indo-Pacific

PubMed Central

Ambrose, Luke; Cooper, Robert D.; Chow, Weng K.; Davis, Joseph B.; Muzari, Mutizwa O.; van den Hurk, Andrew F.; Hall-Mendelin, Sonja; Hasty, Jeomhee M.; Burkot, Thomas R.; Bangs, Michael J.; Reimer, Lisa J.; Butafa, Charles; Lobo, Neil F.; Syafruddin, Din; Maung Maung, Yan Naung; Ahmad, Rohani; Beebe, Nigel W.

2017-01-01

Background Within the last century, increases in human movement and globalization of trade have facilitated the establishment of several highly invasive mosquito species in new geographic locations with concurrent major environmental, economic and health consequences. The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an extremely invasive and aggressive daytime-biting mosquito that is a major public health threat throughout its expanding range. Methodology/Principal findings We used 13 nuclear microsatellite loci (on 911 individuals) and mitochondrial COI sequences to gain a better understanding of the historical and contemporary movements of Ae. albopictus in the Indo-Pacific region and to characterize its population structure. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was employed to test competing historical routes of invasion of Ae. albopictus within the Southeast (SE) Asian/Australasian region. Our ABC results show that Ae. albopictus was most likely introduced to New Guinea via mainland Southeast Asia, before colonizing the Solomon Islands via either Papua New Guinea or SE Asia. The analysis also supported that the recent incursion into northern Australia’s Torres Strait Islands was seeded chiefly from Indonesia. For the first time documented in this invasive species, we provide evidence of a recently colonized population (the Torres Strait Islands) that has undergone rapid temporal changes in its genetic makeup, which could be the result of genetic drift or represent a secondary invasion from an unknown source. Conclusions/Significance There appears to be high spatial genetic structure and high gene flow between some geographically distant populations. The species' genetic structure in the region tends to favour a dispersal pattern driven mostly by human movements. Importantly, this study provides a more widespread sampling distribution of the species’ native range, revealing more spatial population structure than previously shown. Additionally, we present the most probable invasion history of this species in the Australasian region using ABC analysis. PMID:28410388

Tiger on the prowl: Invasion history and spatio-temporal genetic structure of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse 1894) in the Indo-Pacific.

PubMed

Maynard, Andrew J; Ambrose, Luke; Cooper, Robert D; Chow, Weng K; Davis, Joseph B; Muzari, Mutizwa O; van den Hurk, Andrew F; Hall-Mendelin, Sonja; Hasty, Jeomhee M; Burkot, Thomas R; Bangs, Michael J; Reimer, Lisa J; Butafa, Charles; Lobo, Neil F; Syafruddin, Din; Maung Maung, Yan Naung; Ahmad, Rohani; Beebe, Nigel W

2017-04-01

Within the last century, increases in human movement and globalization of trade have facilitated the establishment of several highly invasive mosquito species in new geographic locations with concurrent major environmental, economic and health consequences. The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an extremely invasive and aggressive daytime-biting mosquito that is a major public health threat throughout its expanding range. We used 13 nuclear microsatellite loci (on 911 individuals) and mitochondrial COI sequences to gain a better understanding of the historical and contemporary movements of Ae. albopictus in the Indo-Pacific region and to characterize its population structure. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was employed to test competing historical routes of invasion of Ae. albopictus within the Southeast (SE) Asian/Australasian region. Our ABC results show that Ae. albopictus was most likely introduced to New Guinea via mainland Southeast Asia, before colonizing the Solomon Islands via either Papua New Guinea or SE Asia. The analysis also supported that the recent incursion into northern Australia's Torres Strait Islands was seeded chiefly from Indonesia. For the first time documented in this invasive species, we provide evidence of a recently colonized population (the Torres Strait Islands) that has undergone rapid temporal changes in its genetic makeup, which could be the result of genetic drift or represent a secondary invasion from an unknown source. There appears to be high spatial genetic structure and high gene flow between some geographically distant populations. The species' genetic structure in the region tends to favour a dispersal pattern driven mostly by human movements. Importantly, this study provides a more widespread sampling distribution of the species' native range, revealing more spatial population structure than previously shown. Additionally, we present the most probable invasion history of this species in the Australasian region using ABC analysis.

Projecting 21st century coastal cliff retreat in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limber, P. W.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Vitousek, S.

2016-12-01

In California, sea level is expected to rise over 1 m by 2100, with extreme projections approaching 3 m. Sea level rise (SLR) increases the frequency, severity, and duration of wave impacts on coastal cliffs, potentially accelerating cliff retreat rates. To assess the future risk to cliff-top infrastructure, densely populated Southern California cities like Los Angeles and San Diego require estimates of coastal retreat over long time (multi-decadal) and large spatial (>100 km) scales. We developed a suite of eight coastal cliff retreat models, ranging in complexity from empirical 1-D representations of cliff response to wave impacts to more intricate 2-D process-based models integrated with artificial neural networks. The ensemble produces a comprehensive estimate of time-averaged coastal cliff retreat with uncertainty, is applicable to different geological environments, and is flexible in application depending on processing power, available data, and/or available time (e.g. if processing power and time are limited, the fast 1-D models can be used as a `rapid assessment' tool). Global-to-local nested wave models provided the hindcasts (1980-2010) and forecasts (2010-2100) used to force the models, and waves were applied in combination with eight SLR scenarios ranging from 0.25 m to 2 m. In the more detailed models, tides, non-tidal residuals, and storm surge were included for the hindcast and forecast periods. For model calibration, a new automated cliff edge extraction routine was used to estimate historical cliff retreat rates from LiDAR data. Initial model application to Southern California suggests that 1 m of SLR during the 21st century will cause cliff retreat rates to increase on average by over 50% relative to historical rates. Model results also demonstrate how small-scale, episodic cliff failure events can coalesce through time into spatially uniform, long-term cliff retreat signals.

SAGEMAP: A web-based spatial dataset for sage grouse and sagebrush steppe management in the Intermountain West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knick, Steven T.; Schueck, Linda

2002-01-01

The Snake River Field Station of the Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center has developed and now maintains a database of the spatial information needed to address management of sage grouse and sagebrush steppe habitats in the western United States. The SAGEMAP project identifies and collects infor-mation for the region encompassing the historical extent of sage grouse distribution. State and federal agencies, the primary entities responsible for managing sage grouse and their habitats, need the information to develop an objective assessment of the current status of sage grouse populations and their habitats, or to provide responses and recommendations for recovery if sage grouse are listed as a Threatened or Endangered Species. The spatial data on the SAGEMAP website (http://SAGEMAP.wr.usgs.gov) are an important component in documenting current habitat and other environmental conditions. In addition, the data can be used to identify areas that have undergone significant changes in land cover and to determine underlying causes. As such, the database permits an analysis for large-scale and range-wide factors that may be causing declines of sage grouse populations. The spatial data contained on this site also will be a critical component guiding the decision processes for restoration of habitats in the Great Basin. Therefore, development of this database and the capability to disseminate the information carries multiple benefits for land and wildlife management.

Constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies on historic epidemics.

PubMed

Cook, A R; Gibson, G J; Gottwald, T R; Gilligan, C A

2008-10-06

Data from historical epidemics provide a vital and sometimes under-used resource from which to devise strategies for future control of disease. Previous methods for retrospective analysis of epidemics, in which alternative interventions are compared, do not make full use of the information; by using only partial information on the historical trajectory, augmentation of control may lead to predictions of a paradoxical increase in disease. Here we introduce a novel statistical approach that takes full account of the available information in constructing the effect of alternative intervention strategies in historic epidemics. The key to the method lies in identifying a suitable mapping between the historic and notional outbreaks, under alternative control strategies. We do this by using the Sellke construction as a latent process linking epidemics. We illustrate the application of the method with two examples. First, using temporal data for the common human cold, we show the improvement under the new method in the precision of predictions for different control strategies. Second, we show the generality of the method for retrospective analysis of epidemics by applying it to a spatially extended arboreal epidemic in which we demonstrate the relative effectiveness of host culling strategies that differ in frequency and spatial extent. Some of the inferential and philosophical issues that arise are discussed along with the scope of potential application of the new method.

Theory and Practice in Determining the Long-Term Spatial Productivity of Drylands: A California Blue Oak Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington-Allen, R. A.; Therrell, M. D.; Emanuel, R. E.

2007-12-01

Herbivory, fire, and climatic events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña have been shown to have proximal and evolutionary effects on the dynamics of Dryland fauna, flora, and soils. However, spatially-explicit historical impacts of these climatic events on Dryland ecosystems is not known. Consequently, this paper has the purpose of presenting the theory and practical application for estimating the historical spatial impacts of these climatic events. We hypothesize that if remotely-sensed vegetation indices (VI) are correlated to historical tree ring data and also to functional ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) as measured by eddy covariance flux towers, then VIs can be used to spatially and temporally distribute GPP and NEP within the species- or community-specific land cover extent over the length of the tree ring record of selected Dryland ecosystems. Secondly, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital terrain model (DTM) data has been used to estimate tree height and in conjuction with plant allometric equations: biomass and standing carbon in various forest ecosystems. Tree height data in relation to tree ring age data and fire history can be used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of savanna demographic age structure, predict standing carbon and thus provide a complementary and independent dataset for comparison to DTMs from Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived GPP spatial maps. We developed a database consisting of a dendrochronology record, SRTM data, globa fre history data, Long term Data Record Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (LTDR AVHRR NDVI, 1981 - 2003), contemporary gridded climate data, National Land Cover Data (NLCD), and short term eddy covariance flux tower data for the California Blue Oak woodland ecosystem to estimate both regional aboveground productivity and past disturbance history relative climate, particularly droughts, for the last 500 years.

Biomass and the Climatic Space from historical to future scenarios of a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest - Caatinga

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Coe, M. T.; Maia Andrade, E.; Walker, W.; Baccini, A.; Brando, P. M.; Farina, M.

2017-12-01

The Caatinga found in the semiarid region in northeastern Brazil is the largest continuous seasonally dry tropical forest in South America. The region has for centuries been subject to anthropogenic activities of land conversion, abandonment, and regrowth. The region also has a large spatial variability of edaphic-climatic properties. These effects together contribute to a wide variability of plant physiognomies and biomass concentration. In addition to land use change due to anthropogenic activities the region is exposed in the near and long term to dryer conditions. The main goal of this work was to validate a high spatial resolution (30 m) map of above ground biomass, understand the climatic role in the biomass spatial variability in the present, and the potential threat to vegetation for future climatic shifts. Satellite-derived biomass products are advanced tools that can address spatial changes in forest structure for an extended region. Here we combine a compilation of published field phytosociological observations across the region with a new 30-meter spatial resolution satellite biomass product. Climate data used for this analyses were based on the CRU (Climate Research Unit, UEA) for the historical time period and for the future a mean and 25-75% quantiles of the CMIP Global Climate model estimates for the RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2. The high heterogeneity in the biomass and physiognomy distribution across the Caatinga region is mostly explained by the climatic space defined by the precipitation and dryness index. The Caatinga region has historically already been exposed to shift in its climatic properties, driving all the physiognomies, to a dryer climatic space within the last decade. Future climate intensify the observed trends. This study provides a clearer understanding of the spatial distribution of Caatinga vegetation, its biomass, and relationships to climate, which are essential for strategic development planning, preservation of the biome functions, human services, and biodiversity, face future climate scenarios.

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, Douglas C.; Sales, Marcio H.; Souza, Carlos M., Jr.; Griscom, Bronson

2011-01-01

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

PubMed

Dufresnes, Christophe; Wassef, Jérôme; Ghali, Karim; Brelsford, Alan; Stöck, Matthias; Lymberakis, Petros; Crnobrnja-Isailovic, Jelka; Perrin, Nicolas

2013-11-01

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long-term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late-Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia ('refugia within refugia') and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vulnerability to Climate Change of Mangroves: Assessment from Cameroon, Central Africa

PubMed Central

Ellison, Joanna C.; Zouh, Isabella

2012-01-01

Intertidal mangrove ecosystems are sensitive to climate change impacts, particularly to associated relative sea level rise. Human stressors and low tidal range add to vulnerability, both characteristics of the Doula Estuary, Cameroon. To investigate vulnerability, spatial techniques were combined with ground surveys to map distributions of mangrove zones, and compare with historical spatial records to quantify change over the last few decades. Low technology techniques were used to establish the tidal range and relative elevation of the mapped mangrove area. Stratigraphic coring and palaeobiological reconstruction were used to show the longer term biological history of mangroves and net sedimentation rate, and oral history surveys of local communities were used to provide evidence of recent change and identify possible causes. Results showed that the seaward edge of mangroves had over two thirds of the shoreline experienced dieback at up to 3 m per year over the last three decades, and an offshore mangrove island had suffered 89% loss. Results also showed low net sedimentation rates under seaward edge mangroves, and restricted intertidal elevation habitats of all mangroves, and Avicennia and Laguncularia in particular. To reduce vulnerability, adaptation planning can be improved by reducing the non-climate stressors on the mangrove area, particularly those resulting from human impacts. Other priorities for adaptation planning in mangrove areas that are located in such low tidal range regions are to plan inland migration areas and strategic protected areas for mangroves, and to undertake management activities that enhance accretion within the mangroves. PMID:24832511

Historical and recent flora of the Santa Rita Experimental Range

Treesearch

Alvin L. Medina

2003-01-01

The historical flora of the Santa Rita Experimental Range was composed from historical lists of plants collected by various investigators since 1903. Plant accessions were verified from lists of plant specimens housed at the Rocky Mountain Research Station herbarium in Flagstaff, AZ, and the Rocky Mountain National Herbarium in Laramie, WY. Recent additions (1980 to...

Estimating historical snag density in dry forests east of the Cascade Range

Treesearch

Richy J. Harrod; William L. Gaines; William E. Hartl; Ann. Camp

1998-01-01

Estimating snag densities in pre-European settlement landscapes (i.e., historical conditions) provides land managers with baseline information for comparing current snag densities. We propose a method for determining historical snag densities in the dry forests east of the Cascade Range. Basal area increase was calculated from tree ring measurements of old ponderosa...

Effects of historical climate change, habitat connectivity, and vicariance on genetic structure and diversity across the range of the Red Tree Vole (Phenacomys longicaudus) in the Pacific Northwest United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Mark P.; Bellinger, R.M.; Forsman, E.D.; Haig, Susan M.

2006-01-01

Phylogeographical analyses conducted in the Pacific Northwestern United States have often revealed concordant patterns of genetic diversity among taxa. These studies demonstrate distinct North/South genetic discontinuities that have been attributed to Pleistocene glaciation. We examined phylogeographical patterns of red tree voles (Phenacomys longicaudus) in western Oregon by analysing mitochondrial control region sequences for 169 individuals from 18 areas across the species' range. Cytochrome b sequences were also analysed from a subset of our samples to confirm the presence of major haplotype groups. Phylogenetic network analyses suggested the presence of two haplotype groups corresponding to northern and southern regions of P. longicaudus' range. Spatial genetic analyses (samova and Genetic Landscape Shapes) of control region sequences demonstrated a primary genetic discontinuity separating northern and southern sampling areas, while a secondary discontinuity separated northern sampling areas into eastern and western groups divided by the Willamette Valley. The North/South discontinuity likely corresponds to a region of secondary contact between lineages rather than an overt barrier. Although the Cordilleran ice sheet (maximum a??12 000 years ago) did not move southward to directly affect the region occupied by P. longicaudus, climate change during glaciation fragmented the forest landscape that it inhabits. Signatures of historical fragmentation were reflected by positive associations between latitude and variables such as Tajima's D and patterns associated with location-specific alleles. Genetic distances between southern sampling areas were smaller, suggesting that forest fragmentation was reduced in southern vs. northern regions.

General guidelines for identifying and evaluating historic landscapes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-02-01

Historic landscapes can possess historical values coming from the full range of human history, including ethnography and traditional cultural values. Because the definition of historic landscape is broad and not always well understood, identification...

Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander.

PubMed

Velo-Antón, G; Parra, J L; Parra-Olea, G; Zamudio, K R

2013-06-01

Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scale Dependence of Oak Woodland Historical Fire Intervals: Contrasting the Barrens of Tennessee and Cross Timbers of Oklahoma, USA

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Joseph M. Marschall; Daniel C. Dey

2016-01-01

Characterization of scale dependence of fire intervals could inform interpretations of fire history and improve fire prescriptions that aim to mimic historical fire regime conditions. We quantified the temporal variability in fire regimes and described the spatial dependence of fire intervals through the analysis of multi-century fire scar records (8 study sites, 332...

Redrawing the baseline: a method for adjusting biased historical forest estimates using a spatial and temporally representative plot network

Treesearch

Sara A. Goeking; Paul L. Patterson

2015-01-01

Users of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data sometimes compare historic and current forest inventory estimates, despite warnings that such comparisons may be tenuous. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate a method for obtaining a more accurate and representative reference dataset using data collected at co-located plots (i.e., plots that were measured...

Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

Treesearch

Maureen C. Kennedy; Donald McKenzie

2010-01-01

Fire-scarred trees provide a deep temporal record of historical fire activity, but identifying the mechanisms therein that controlled landscape fire patterns is not straightforward. We use a spatially correlated metric for fire co-occurrence between pairs of trees (the Sørensen distance variogram), with output from a neutral model for fire history, to infer the...

Phosphorus availability in Western Lake Erie Basin drainage waters: legacy evidence across spatial scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) was inundated with precipitation during June and July 2015 (2-3× greater than historical averages), which led to significant nutrient loading and the largest in-lake algal bloom on record. Using discharge and concentration data from three spatial scales (0.09 km2 t...

California dragonfly and damselfly (Odonata) database: temporal and spatial distribution of species records collected over the past century

PubMed Central

Ball-Damerow, Joan E.; Oboyski, Peter T.; Resh, Vincent H.

2015-01-01

Abstract The recently completed Odonata database for California consists of specimen records from the major entomology collections of the state, large Odonata collections outside of the state, previous literature, historical and recent field surveys, and from enthusiast group observations. The database includes 32,025 total records and 19,000 unique records for 106 species of dragonflies and damselflies, with records spanning 1879–2013. Records have been geographically referenced using the point-radius method to assign coordinates and an uncertainty radius to specimen locations. In addition to describing techniques used in data acquisition, georeferencing, and quality control, we present assessments of the temporal, spatial, and taxonomic distribution of records. We use this information to identify biases in the data, and to determine changes in species prevalence, latitudinal ranges, and elevation ranges when comparing records before 1976 and after 1979. The average latitude of where records occurred increased by 78 km over these time periods. While average elevation did not change significantly, the average minimum elevation across species declined by 108 m. Odonata distribution may be generally shifting northwards as temperature warms and to lower minimum elevations in response to increased summer water availability in low-elevation agricultural regions. The unexpected decline in elevation may also be partially the result of bias in recent collections towards centers of human population, which tend to occur at lower elevations. This study emphasizes the need to address temporal, spatial, and taxonomic biases in museum and observational records in order to produce reliable conclusions from such data. PMID:25709531

Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

2013-01-01

We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect interannual changes in total recharge. These results provide insights into the possible impacts of climate change to other regional aquifer systems, and the streams they support, where discharge points represent a range of flow system scales.

From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: exploring the progress for hydrological impact research for the upper Danube basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanzel, Philipp; Kling, Harald

2017-04-01

EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data are available as result of the latest initiative of the climate modelling community to provide ever improved simulations of past and future climate in Europe. The spatial resolution of the climate models increased from 25 x 25 km in the previous coordinated initiative, ENSEMBLES, to 12 x 12 km in the CORDEX EUR-11 simulations. This higher spatial resolution might yield improved representation of the historic climate, especially in complex mountainous terrain, improving applicability in impact studies. CORDEX scenario simulations are based on Representative Concentration Pathways, while ENSEMBLES applied the SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The new emission scenarios might lead to different projections of future climate. In this contribution we explore these two dimensions of development from ENSEMBLES to CORDEX - representation of the past and projections for the future - in the context of a hydrological climate change impact study for the Danube River. We replicated previous hydrological simulations that used ENSEMBLES data of 21 RCM simulations under SRES A1B emission scenario as meteorological input data (Kling et al. 2012), and now applied CORDEX EUR-11 data of 16 RCM simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate variables precipitation and temperature were used to drive a monthly hydrological model of the upper Danube basin upstream of Vienna (100,000 km2). RCM data was bias corrected and downscaled to the scale of hydrological model units. Results with CORDEX data were compared with results with ENSEMBLES data, analysing both the driving meteorological input and the resulting discharge projections. Results with CORDEX data show no general improvement in the accuracy of representing historic climatic features, despite the increase in spatial model resolution. The tendency of ENSEMBLES scenario projections of increasing precipitation in winter and decreasing precipitation in summer is reproduced with the CORDEX RCMs, albeit with slightly higher precipitation in the CORDEX data. The distinct pattern of future change in discharge seasonality - increasing winter discharge and decreasing summer discharge - is confirmed with the new CORDEX data, with a range of projections very similar to the range projected by the ENSEMBLES RCMs. References: Kling, H., Fuchs, M., Paulin, M. 2012. Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 424-425, 264-277.

GoMRC Website ‘Meta-analysis Report: Land-use and submerged aquatic vegetation change in the Gulf of Mexico’

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judd, Chaeli; Stefansson, Emily S.; Brushnahan, Heather

2007-12-06

Over the past century, health and spatial extent of seagrasses has decreased dramatically in the Gulf of Mexico. While some of the changes can be explained by direct impacts to the seagrass beds, we hypothesize that changes in the land use in the watersheds can also be correlated with the decline of seagrasses. Through this meta-analysis, we researched historical and compared trends in seagrass populations and land use in five bays and their watersheds within the Gulf of Mexico: Mobile Bay, Perdido Bay, Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, and Galveston Bay. Using both historical records and spatial datasets, we examined landmore » use and seagrass trends in these five areas.« less

The relative roles of environment, history and local dispersal in controlling the distributions of common tree and shrub species in a tropical forest landscape, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Svenning, J.-C.; Engelbrecht, B.M.J.; Kinner, D.A.; Kursar, T.A.; Stallard, R.F.; Wright, S.J.

2006-01-01

We used regression models and information-theoretic model selection to assess the relative importance of environment, local dispersal and historical contingency as controls of the distributions of 26 common plant species in tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We censused eighty-eight 0.09-ha plots scattered across the landscape. Environmental control, local dispersal and historical contingency were represented by environmental variables (soil moisture, slope, soil type, distance to shore, old-forest presence), a spatial autoregressive parameter (??), and four spatial trend variables, respectively. We built regression models, representing all combinations of the three hypotheses, for each species. The probability that the best model included the environmental variables, spatial trend variables and ?? averaged 33%, 64% and 50% across the study species, respectively. The environmental variables, spatial trend variables, ??, and a simple intercept model received the strongest support for 4, 15, 5 and 2 species, respectively. Comparing the model results to information on species traits showed that species with strong spatial trends produced few and heavy diaspores, while species with strong soil moisture relationships were particularly drought-sensitive. In conclusion, history and local dispersal appeared to be the dominant controls of the distributions of common plant species on BCI. Copyright ?? 2006 Cambridge University Press.

Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Sarah D. Pratt

2006-01-01

The range and variation of historical landscape dynamics could provide a useful reference for designing fuel treatments on today's landscapes. Simulation modeling is a vehicle that can be used to estimate the range of conditions experienced on historical landscapes. A landscape fire succession model called LANDSUMv4 (LANDscape SUccession Model version 4.0) is...

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift.

PubMed

Crickenberger, Sam; Wethey, David S

2018-05-10

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Doing ecohydrology backward: Inferring wetland flow and hydroperiod from landscape patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, Subodh; Kaplan, David A.; Jawitz, James W.; Cohen, Matthew J.

2017-07-01

Human alterations to hydrology have globally impacted wetland ecosystems. Preventing or reversing these impacts is a principal focus of restoration efforts. However, restoration effectiveness is often hampered by limited information on historical landscape properties and hydrologic regime. To help address this gap, we developed a novel statistical approach for inferring flows and inundation frequency (i.e., hydroperiod, HP) in wetlands where changes in spatial vegetation and geomorphic patterns have occurred due to hydrologic alteration. We developed an analytical expression for HP as a transformation of the landscape-scale stage-discharge relationship. We applied this model to the Everglades "ridge-slough" (RS) landscape, a patterned, lotic peatland in southern Florida that has been drastically degraded by compartmentalization, drainage, and flow diversions. The new method reliably estimated flow and HP for a range of RS landscape patterns. Crucially, ridge-patch anisotropy and elevation above sloughs were strong drivers of flow-HP relationships. Increasing ridge heights markedly increased flow required to achieve sufficient HP to support peat accretion. Indeed, ridge heights inferred from historical accounts would require boundary flows 3-4 times greater than today, which agrees with restoration flow estimates from more complex, spatially distributed models. While observed loss of patch anisotropy allows HP targets to be met with lower flows, such landscapes likely fail to support other ecological functions. This work helps inform restoration flows required to restore stable ridge-slough patterning and positive peat accretion in this degraded ecosystem, and, more broadly, provides tools for exploring interactions between landscape and hydrology in lotic wetlands and floodplains.

Impacts of memory on a regular lattice for different population sizes with asynchronous update in spatial snowdrift game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Feng; Liu, Xingwen; Li, Min

2018-05-01

Memory is an important factor on the evolution of cooperation in spatial structure. For evolutionary biologists, the problem is often how cooperation acts can emerge in an evolving system. In the case of snowdrift game, it is found that memory can boost cooperation level for large cost-to-benefit ratio r, while inhibit cooperation for small r. Thus, how to enlarge the range of r for the purpose of enhancing cooperation becomes a hot issue recently. This paper addresses a new memory-based approach and its core lies in: Each agent applies the given rule to compare its own historical payoffs in a certain memory size, and take the obtained maximal one as virtual payoff. In order to get the optimal strategy, each agent randomly selects one of its neighbours to compare their virtual payoffs, which can lead to the optimal strategy. Both constant-size memory and size-varying memory are investigated by means of a scenario of asynchronous updating algorithm on regular lattices with different sizes. Simulation results show that this approach effectively enhances cooperation level in spatial structure and makes the high cooperation level simultaneously emerge for both small and large r. Moreover, it is discovered that population sizes have a significant influence on the effects of cooperation.

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.; ...

2017-01-31

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Historical range, current distribution, and conservation status of the Swift Fox, Vulpes velox, in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sovada, Marsha A.; Woodward, Robert O.; Igl, Lawrence D.

2009-01-01

The Swift Fox (Vulpes velox) was once common in the shortgrass and mixed-grass prairies of the Great Plains of North America. The species' abundance declined and its distribution retracted following European settlement of the plains. By the late 1800s, the species had been largely extirpated from the northern portion of its historical range, and its populations were acutely depleted elsewhere. Swift Fox populations have naturally recovered somewhat since the 1950s, but overall abundance and distribution remain below historical levels. In a 1995 assessment of the species' status under the US Endangered Species Act, the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that a designation of threatened or endangered was warranted, but the species was "precluded from listing by higher listing priorities." A major revelation of the 1995 assessment was the recognition that information useful for determining population status was limited. Fundamental information was missing, including an accurate estimate of the species' distribution before European settlement and an estimate of the species' current distribution and trends. The objectives of this paper are to fill those gaps in knowledge. Historical records were compiled and, in combination with knowledge of the habitat requirements of the species, the historical range of the Swift Fox is estimated to be approximately 1.5 million km2. Using data collected between 2001 and 2006, the species' current distribution is estimated to be about 44% of its historical range in the United States and 3% in Canada. Under current land use, approximately 39% of the species' historical range contains grassland habitats with very good potential for Swift Fox occupation and another 10% supports grasslands with characteristics that are less preferred (e.g., a sparse shrub component or taller stature) but still suitable. Additionally, land use on at least 25% of the historical range supports dryland farming, which can be suitable for Swift Fox occupation. In the United States, approximately 52% of highest quality habitats currently available are occupied by Swift Foxes.

Tonopah test range - outpost of Sandia National Laboratories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, L.

Tonopah Test Range is a unique historic site. Established in 1957 by Sandia Corporation, Tonopah Test Range in Nevada provided an isolated place for the Atomic Energy Commission to test ballistics and non-nuclear features of atomic weapons. It served this and allied purposes well for nearly forty years, contributing immeasurably to a peaceful conclusion to the long arms race remembered as the Cold War. This report is a brief review of historical highlights at Tonopah Test Range. Sandia`s Los Lunas, Salton Sea, Kauai, and Edgewood testing ranges also receive abridged mention. Although Sandia`s test ranges are the subject, the centralmore » focus is on the people who managed and operated the range. Comments from historical figures are interspersed through the narrative to establish this perspective, and at the end a few observations concerning the range`s future are provided.« less

Analysis of Rawinsonde Spatial Separation for Space Launch Vehicle Applications at the Eastern Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.

2017-01-01

Space launch vehicles develop day-of-launch steering commands based upon the upper-level atmospheric environments in order to alleviate wind induced structural loading and optimize ascent trajectory. Historically, upper-level wind measurements to support launch operations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Kennedy Space Center co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station use high-resolution rawinsondes. One inherent limitation with rawinsondes consists of taking approximately one hour to generate a vertically complete wind profile. Additionally, rawinsonde drift during ascent by the ambient wind environment can result in the balloon being hundreds of kilometers down range, which results in questioning whether the measured winds represent the wind environment the vehicle will experience during ascent. This paper will describe the use of balloon profile databases to statistically assess the drift distance away from the ER launch complexes during rawinsonde ascent as a function of season and discuss an alternative method to measure upper level wind environments in closer proximity to the vehicle trajectory launching from the ER.

Analysis of Rawinsonde Spatial Separation for Space Launch Vehicle Applications at the Eastern Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.

2017-01-01

Space launch vehicles use day-of-launch steering commands based upon the upper-level (UL) atmospheric environments in order to alleviate wind induced structural loading and optimize ascent trajectory. Historically, UL wind measurements to support launch operations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC), co-located on the United States Air Force's Eastern Range (ER) at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station use high-resolution (HR) rawinsondes. One inherent limitation with rawinsondes is the approximately one-hour sampling time necessary to measure tropospheric winds. Additionally, rawinsonde drift during ascent due to the ambient wind environment can result in the balloon being hundreds of kilometers down range, which results in questioning whether the measured winds represent the wind environment the vehicle will experience during ascent. This paper will describe the use of balloon profile databases to statistically assess the drift distance away from the ER launch complexes during HR rawinsonde ascent as a function of season. Will also discuss an alternative method to measure UL wind environments in closer proximity to the vehicle trajectory when launching from the ER.

Large Scale Environmental Monitoring through Integration of Sensor and Mesh Networks.

PubMed

Jurdak, Raja; Nafaa, Abdelhamid; Barbirato, Alessio

2008-11-24

Monitoring outdoor environments through networks of wireless sensors has received interest for collecting physical and chemical samples at high spatial and temporal scales. A central challenge to environmental monitoring applications of sensor networks is the short communication range of the sensor nodes, which increases the complexity and cost of monitoring commodities that are located in geographically spread areas. To address this issue, we propose a new communication architecture that integrates sensor networks with medium range wireless mesh networks, and provides users with an advanced web portal for managing sensed information in an integrated manner. Our architecture adopts a holistic approach targeted at improving the user experience by optimizing the system performance for handling data that originates at the sensors, traverses the mesh network, and resides at the server for user consumption. This holistic approach enables users to set high level policies that can adapt the resolution of information collected at the sensors, set the preferred performance targets for their application, and run a wide range of queries and analysis on both real-time and historical data. All system components and processes will be described in this paper.

Lessons from the past: isotopes of an endangered rail as indicators of underlying change to tidal marsh habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merritt, Angela M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Takekawa, John Y.; Hahn, Thomas P.; Hull, Joshua M.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Tidal marsh systems along the Pacific coast of the United States have experienced substantial stress and loss of area and ecosystem function, which we examined by using the endangered California Ridgway’s Rail, Rallus obsoletus obsoletus (‘rail’) as an indicator of its tidal marsh habitat in the San Francisco Estuary. We organized a collection of historical (1885-1940) and modern (2005-2014) rail feathers and analyzed the feather isotope means for delta carbon (δ13C), sulfur (δ34S), and nitrogen (δ15N) by region and time period.Outcomes: Feather isotopes represented the primary foraging habitat during historical then modern time periods. Neither individual nor regional rail feather isotopes suggested freshwater or terrestrial foraging by the rail. Three regions with both historic and modern feather isotopes revealed non-uniform spatial shifts in isotope levels consistent with a marine based food web and significant δ15N enrichment.Discussion: Our results supported the rail’s status as a generalist forager and obligate tidal marsh species throughout the historic record. The variable isoscape trends generated from feather isotope means illustrated a modern loss of the isotopic homogeneity between regions of historical tidal marsh, which correlated with spatially-explicit habitat alterations such as increasing biological invasions and sewage effluent over time.Conclusion: These findings have reinforced the importance of tidal marsh conservation in the face of ongoing underlying changes to these important ecosystems.

Spatially explicit measurements of forest structure and fire behavior following restoration treatments in dry forests

Treesearch

Justin Paul Ziegler; Chad Hoffman; Michael Battaglia; William Mell

2017-01-01

Restoration treatments in dry forests of the western US often attempt silvicultural practices to restore the historical characteristics of forest structure and fire behavior. However, it is suggested that a reliance on non-spatial metrics of forest stand structure, along with the use of wildland fire behavior models that lack the ability to handle complex structures,...

A Global Geospatial Database of 5000+ Historic Flood Event Extents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Doyle, C.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Erickson, T.; Slayback, D. A.

2017-12-01

A key dataset that is missing for global flood model validation and understanding historic spatial flood vulnerability is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Decades of earth observing satellites and cloud computing now make it possible to not only detect floods in near real time, but to run these water detection algorithms back in time to capture the spatial extent of large numbers of specific events. This talk will show results from the largest global historical flood database developed to date. We use the Dartmouth Flood Observatory flood catalogue to map over 5000 floods (from 1985-2017) using MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-1 Satellites. All events are available for public download via the Earth Engine Catalogue and via a website that allows the user to query floods by area or date, assess population exposure trends over time, and download flood extents in geospatial format.In this talk, we will highlight major trends in global flood exposure per continent, land use type, and eco-region. We will also make suggestions how to use this dataset in conjunction with other global sets to i) validate global flood models, ii) assess the potential role of climatic change in flood exposure iii) understand how urbanization and other land change processes may influence spatial flood exposure iv) assess how innovative flood interventions (e.g. wetland restoration) influence flood patterns v) control for event magnitude to assess the role of social vulnerability and damage assessment vi) aid in rapid probabilistic risk assessment to enable microinsurance markets. Authors on this paper are already using the database for the later three applications and will show examples of wetland intervention analysis in Argentina, social vulnerability analysis in the USA, and micro insurance in India.

Are we failing to protect threatened mangroves in the Sundarbans world heritage ecosystem?

PubMed

Sarker, Swapan K; Reeve, Richard; Thompson, Jill; Paul, Nirmal K; Matthiopoulos, Jason

2016-02-16

The Sundarbans, the largest mangrove ecosystem in the world, is under threat from historical and future human exploitation and sea level rise. Limited scientific knowledge on the spatial ecology of the mangroves in this world heritage ecosystem has been a major impediment to conservation efforts. Here, for the first time, we report on habitat suitability analyses and spatial density maps for the four most prominent mangrove species--Heritiera fomes, Excoecaria agallocha, Ceriops decandra and Xylocarpus mekongensis. Globally endangered H. fomes abundances declined as salinity increased. Responses to nutrients, elevation, and stem density varied between species. H. fomes and X. mekongensis preferred upstream habitats. E. agallocha and C. decandra preferred down-stream and mid-stream habitats. Historical harvesting had negative influences on H. fomes, C. decandra and X. mekongensis abundances. The established protected area network does not support the most suitable habitats of these threatened species. We therefore recommend a reconfiguration of the network to include these suitable habitats and ensure their immediate protection. These novel habitat insights and spatial predictions can form the basis for future forest studies and spatial conservation planning, and have implications for more effective conservation of the Sundarbans mangroves and the many other species that rely on them.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prioritizing landscapes for longleaf pine conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grand, James B.; Kleiner, Kevin J.

2016-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model and map, as a decision support tool (DST), to aid conservation agencies creating or maintaining open pine ecosystems. The tool identified areas that are likely to provide the greatest benefit to focal bird populations based on a comprehensive landscape analysis. We used NLCD 2011, SSURGO, and SEGAP data to map the density of desired resources for open pine ecosystems and six focal species of birds and 2 reptiles within the historic range of longleaf pine east of the Mississippi River. Binary rasters were created of sites with desired characteristics such as land form, hydrology, land use and land cover, soils, potential habitat for focal species, and putative source populations of focal species. Each raster was smoothed using a kernel density estimator. Rasters were combined and scaled to map priority locations for the management of each focal species. Species’ rasters were combined and scaled to provide maps of overall priority for birds and for birds and reptiles. The spatial data can be used to identify high priority areas for conservation or to compare areas under consideration for maintenance or creation of open pine ecosystems.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

Influence of current climate, historical climate stability and topography on species richness and endemism in Mesoamerican geophyte plants

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background A number of biotic and abiotic factors have been proposed as drivers of geographic variation in species richness. As biotic elements, inter-specific interactions are the most widely recognized. Among abiotic factors, in particular for plants, climate and topographic variables as well as their historical variation have been correlated with species richness and endemism. In this study, we determine the extent to which the species richness and endemism of monocot geophyte species in Mesoamerica is predicted by current climate, historical climate stability and topography. Methods Using approximately 2,650 occurrence points representing 507 geophyte taxa, species richness (SR) and weighted endemism (WE) were estimated at a geographic scale using grids of 0.5 × 0.5 decimal degrees resolution using Mexico as the geographic extent. SR and WE were also estimated using species distributions inferred from ecological niche modeling for species with at least five spatially unique occurrence points. Current climate, current to Last Glacial Maximum temperature, precipitation stability and topographic features were used as predictor variables on multiple spatial regression analyses (i.e., spatial autoregressive models, SAR) using the estimates of SR and WE as response variables. The standardized coefficients of the predictor variables that were significant in the regression models were utilized to understand the observed patterns of species richness and endemism. Results Our estimates of SR and WE based on direct occurrence data and distribution modeling generally yielded similar results, though estimates based on ecological niche modeling indicated broader distribution areas for SR and WE than when species richness was directly estimated using georeferenced coordinates. The SR and WE of monocot geophytes were highest along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, in both cases with higher levels in the central area of this mountain chain. Richness and endemism were also elevated in the southern regions of the Sierra Madre Oriental and Occidental mountain ranges, and in the Tehuacán Valley. Some areas of the Sierra Madre del Sur and Sierra Madre Oriental had high levels of WE, though they are not the areas with the highest SR. The spatial regressions suggest that SR is mostly influenced by current climate, whereas endemism is mainly affected by topography and precipitation stability. Conclusions Both methods (direct occurrence data and ecological niche modeling) used to estimate SR and WE in this study yielded similar results and detected a key area that should be considered in plant conservation strategies: the central region of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Our results also corroborated that species richness is more closely correlated with current climate factors while endemism is related to differences in topography and to changes in precipitation levels compared to the LGM climatic conditions. PMID:29062605

Disturbance regimes and the historical range and variation in terrestrial ecosystems

Treesearch

Robert Keane

2017-01-01

Disturbances are major drivers of ecological dynamics and it is the cumulative effects of disturbances across space and time that define a disturbance regime and dictate biodiversity by influencing the ranges of vegetation structures, compositions, and processes on landscapes. This range and variation of landscape characteristics under historical disturbance regimes...

Historic emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1) source data uncertainties

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from credited mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year periods of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by > 20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C ha-1, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions Estimates of source data uncertainties are essential for REDD+. Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions. PMID:22208947

Visualization and Time-Series Analysis of Ground-Water Data for C-Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina, 1984-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Roehl, Edwin A.; Daamen, Ruby C.; Chapelle, Francis H.; Lowery, Mark A.; Mundry, Uwe H.

2007-01-01

In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, initiated a study of historical ground-water data of C-Area on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. The soils and ground water at C-Area are contaminated with high concentrations of trichloroethylene and lesser amounts of tetrachloroethylene. The objectives of the investigation were (1) to analyze the historical data to determine if data-mining techniques could be applied to the historical database to ascertain whether natural attenuation of recalcitrant contaminants, such as volatile organic compounds, is occurring and (2) to determine whether inferential (surrogate) analytes could be used for more cost-effective monitoring. Twenty-one years of data (1984-2004) were collected from 396 wells in the study area and converted from record data to time-series data for analysis. A Ground-Water Data Viewer was developed to allow users to spatially and temporally visualize the analyte data. Overall, because the data were temporally and spatially sparse, data analysis was limited to only qualitative descriptions.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Changing Epidemiology of Human Brucellosis, China, 1955-2014.

PubMed

Lai, Shengjie; Zhou, Hang; Xiong, Weiyi; Gilbert, Marius; Huang, Zhuojie; Yu, Jianxing; Yin, Wenwu; Wang, Liping; Chen, Qiulan; Li, Yu; Mu, Di; Zeng, Lingjia; Ren, Xiang; Geng, Mengjie; Zhang, Zike; Cui, Buyun; Li, Tiefeng; Wang, Dali; Li, Zhongjie; Wardrop, Nicola A; Tatem, Andrew J; Yu, Hongjie

2017-02-01

Brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, was made statutorily notifiable in China in 1955. We analyzed the incidence and spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis during 1955-2014 in China using notifiable surveillance data: aggregated data for 1955-2003 and individual case data for 2004-2014. A total of 513,034 brucellosis cases were recorded, of which 99.3% were reported in northern China during 1955-2014, and 69.1% (258, 462/374, 141) occurred during February-July in 1990-2014. Incidence remained high during 1955-1978 (interquartile range 0.42-1.0 cases/100,000 residents), then decreased dramatically in 1979-1994. However, brucellosis has reemerged since 1995 (interquartile range 0.11-0.23 in 1995-2003 and 1.48-2.89 in 2004-2014); the historical high occurred in 2014, and the affected area expanded from northern pastureland provinces to the adjacent grassland and agricultural areas, then to southern coastal and southwestern areas. Control strategies in China should be adjusted to account for these changes by adopting a One Health approach.

Applications of Historical Analyses in Combat Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

effectiveness, P Dexter, J Battlefield Technology 6, 33-39, (2003). 37. Long term behaviour of solutions of the Lotka- Volterra system under small...2643 database of historical battles. This includes an examination of the inclusion of a fractal model of spatial dispersion on casualty values [6] and...system is viewed as no more than “the sum of its parts” in which all phenomena can be explained in terms of other, more fundamental, phenomena

High Levels of Diversity Uncovered in a Widespread Nominal Taxon: Continental Phylogeography of the Neotropical Tree Frog Dendropsophus minutus

PubMed Central

Gehara, Marcelo; Crawford, Andrew J.; Orrico, Victor G. D.; Rodríguez, Ariel; Lötters, Stefan; Fouquet, Antoine; Barrientos, Lucas S.; Brusquetti, Francisco; De la Riva, Ignacio; Ernst, Raffael; Urrutia, Giuseppe Gagliardi; Glaw, Frank; Guayasamin, Juan M.; Hölting, Monique; Jansen, Martin; Kok, Philippe J. R.; Kwet, Axel; Lingnau, Rodrigo; Lyra, Mariana; Moravec, Jiří; Pombal, José P.; Rojas-Runjaic, Fernando J. M.; Schulze, Arne; Señaris, J. Celsa; Solé, Mirco; Rodrigues, Miguel Trefaut; Twomey, Evan; Haddad, Celio F. B.; Vences, Miguel; Köhler, Jörn

2014-01-01

Species distributed across vast continental areas and across major biomes provide unique model systems for studies of biotic diversification, yet also constitute daunting financial, logistic and political challenges for data collection across such regions. The tree frog Dendropsophus minutus (Anura: Hylidae) is a nominal species, continentally distributed in South America, that may represent a complex of multiple species, each with a more limited distribution. To understand the spatial pattern of molecular diversity throughout the range of this species complex, we obtained DNA sequence data from two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and the 16S rhibosomal gene (16S) for 407 samples of D. minutus and closely related species distributed across eleven countries, effectively comprising the entire range of the group. We performed phylogenetic and spatially explicit phylogeographic analyses to assess the genetic structure of lineages and infer ancestral areas. We found 43 statistically supported, deep mitochondrial lineages, several of which may represent currently unrecognized distinct species. One major clade, containing 25 divergent lineages, includes samples from the type locality of D. minutus. We defined that clade as the D. minutus complex. The remaining lineages together with the D. minutus complex constitute the D. minutus species group. Historical analyses support an Amazonian origin for the D. minutus species group with a subsequent dispersal to eastern Brazil where the D. minutus complex originated. According to our dataset, a total of eight mtDNA lineages have ranges >100,000 km2. One of them occupies an area of almost one million km2 encompassing multiple biomes. Our results, at a spatial scale and resolution unprecedented for a Neotropical vertebrate, confirm that widespread amphibian species occur in lowland South America, yet at the same time a large proportion of cryptic diversity still remains to be discovered. PMID:25208078

High levels of diversity uncovered in a widespread nominal taxon: continental phylogeography of the neotropical tree frog Dendropsophus minutus.

PubMed

Gehara, Marcelo; Crawford, Andrew J; Orrico, Victor G D; Rodríguez, Ariel; Lötters, Stefan; Fouquet, Antoine; Barrientos, Lucas S; Brusquetti, Francisco; De la Riva, Ignacio; Ernst, Raffael; Urrutia, Giuseppe Gagliardi; Glaw, Frank; Guayasamin, Juan M; Hölting, Monique; Jansen, Martin; Kok, Philippe J R; Kwet, Axel; Lingnau, Rodrigo; Lyra, Mariana; Moravec, Jiří; Pombal, José P; Rojas-Runjaic, Fernando J M; Schulze, Arne; Señaris, J Celsa; Solé, Mirco; Rodrigues, Miguel Trefaut; Twomey, Evan; Haddad, Celio F B; Vences, Miguel; Köhler, Jörn

2014-01-01

Species distributed across vast continental areas and across major biomes provide unique model systems for studies of biotic diversification, yet also constitute daunting financial, logistic and political challenges for data collection across such regions. The tree frog Dendropsophus minutus (Anura: Hylidae) is a nominal species, continentally distributed in South America, that may represent a complex of multiple species, each with a more limited distribution. To understand the spatial pattern of molecular diversity throughout the range of this species complex, we obtained DNA sequence data from two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and the 16S rhibosomal gene (16S) for 407 samples of D. minutus and closely related species distributed across eleven countries, effectively comprising the entire range of the group. We performed phylogenetic and spatially explicit phylogeographic analyses to assess the genetic structure of lineages and infer ancestral areas. We found 43 statistically supported, deep mitochondrial lineages, several of which may represent currently unrecognized distinct species. One major clade, containing 25 divergent lineages, includes samples from the type locality of D. minutus. We defined that clade as the D. minutus complex. The remaining lineages together with the D. minutus complex constitute the D. minutus species group. Historical analyses support an Amazonian origin for the D. minutus species group with a subsequent dispersal to eastern Brazil where the D. minutus complex originated. According to our dataset, a total of eight mtDNA lineages have ranges >100,000 km2. One of them occupies an area of almost one million km2 encompassing multiple biomes. Our results, at a spatial scale and resolution unprecedented for a Neotropical vertebrate, confirm that widespread amphibian species occur in lowland South America, yet at the same time a large proportion of cryptic diversity still remains to be discovered.

The contribution of reserves and anthropogenic habitat for functional connectivity and resilience of ephemeral wetland networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. R.; Uden, D.; Angeler, D.; Hellman, M.

2015-12-01

Functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for persistence of spatially structured populations, and therefore for resilience. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves or influencing management actions taken on non-reserves. We assess functional connectivity of isolated wetlands within an intensively managed agricultural matrix. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basins, Nebraska, U.S.A. at four assumed anuran dispersal distances. We compare the contemporary wetlands landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes and evaluate the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has substantially increased connectivity in the current landscape, but because their distribution is more uniform than historical wetlands, larger and longer-dispersing species may be favored over smaller, shorter-dispersing species. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves did not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they provide the highest-quality anuran habitat. Future levels of connectivity in the region will be directly impacted by the planned removal of irrigation reuse pits, and on non-reserve wetlands. Multi-scale spatial and temporal assessments of the effects of landuse change and conservation actions on landscape connectivity may be used to direct and prioritize conservation actions, and should also be useful for reserve network and landscape resilience assessments.

An improved database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915 to 2016

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Wadey, Matthew P.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Gallop, Shari L.; Wahl, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M.

2017-01-01

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can produce devastating and wide-ranging consequences. The ‘SurgeWatch’ v1.0 database systematically documents and assesses the consequences of historical coastal flood events around the UK. The original database was inevitably biased due to the inconsistent spatial and temporal coverage of sea-level observations utilised. Therefore, we present an improved version integrating a variety of ‘soft’ data such as journal papers, newspapers, weather reports, and social media. SurgeWatch2.0 identifies 329 coastal flooding events from 1915 to 2016, a more than fivefold increase compared to the 59 events in v1.0. Moreover, each flood event is now ranked using a multi-level categorisation based on inundation, transport disruption, costs, and fatalities: from 1 (Nuisance) to 6 (Disaster). For the 53 most severe events ranked Category 3 and above, an accompanying event description based upon the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework was produced. Thus, SurgeWatch v2.0 provides the most comprehensive and coherent historical record of UK coastal flooding. It is designed to be a resource for research, planning, management and education. PMID:28763054

Five centuries of tsunamis and land-level changes in the overlapping rupture area of the 1960 and 2010 Chilean earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Lisa L.; Cisternas, Marco; Wesson, Robert L.; Dura, Tina

2014-01-01

A combination of geological and historical records from south-central Chile provides a means to address general questions about the stability of megathrust rupture patches and the range of variation expected among earthquakes and tsunamis along a particular stretch of a subduction zone. The Tirúa River estuary (38.3°S) records four large tsunamis and coseismic land-level changes over the past 450 years within the overlapping rupture zones of the great subduction-zone earthquakes of A.D. 1960 (Mw9.5) and 2010 (Mw 8.8). Sand layers 2 km up the Tirúa River represent the 2010 and 1960 tsunamis and two historical tsunamis, most likely in A.D. 1751 and 1575. Differing land-level changes during these earthquakes likely denote differences in the spatial distribution of slip on the megathrust in both the strike and dip directions within the overlapping rupture zone, with the uplift at Tirúa in 1751 and 2010 probably caused by slip extending farther landward and to greater depth than in 1575 and 1960, which showed subsidence or little change.

A compartmental-spatial system dynamics approach to ground water modeling.

PubMed

Roach, Jesse; Tidwell, Vince

2009-01-01

High-resolution, spatially distributed ground water flow models can prove unsuitable for the rapid, interactive analysis that is increasingly demanded to support a participatory decision environment. To address this shortcoming, we extend the idea of multiple cell (Bear 1979) and compartmental (Campana and Simpson 1984) ground water models developed within the context of spatial system dynamics (Ahmad and Simonovic 2004) for rapid scenario analysis. We term this approach compartmental-spatial system dynamics (CSSD). The goal is to balance spatial aggregation necessary to achieve a real-time integrative and interactive decision environment while maintaining sufficient model complexity to yield a meaningful representation of the regional ground water system. As a test case, a 51-compartment CSSD model was built and calibrated from a 100,0001 cell MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh 1988) model of the Albuquerque Basin in central New Mexico (McAda and Barroll 2002). Seventy-seven percent of historical drawdowns predicted by the MODFLOW model were within 1 m of the corresponding CSSD estimates, and in 80% of the historical model run years the CSSD model estimates of river leakage, reservoir leakage, ground water flow to agricultural drains, and riparian evapotranspiration were within 30% of the corresponding estimates from McAda and Barroll (2002), with improved model agreement during the scenario period. Comparisons of model results demonstrate both advantages and limitations of the CCSD model approach.

Spatial and temporal corroboration of a fire-scar-based fire history in a frequently burned ponderosa pine forest

Treesearch

Calvin A. Farris; Christopher H. Baisan; Donald A. Falk; Stephen R. Yool; Thomas W. Swetnam

2010-01-01

Fire scars are used widely to reconstruct historical fire regime parameters in forests around the world. Because fire scars provide incomplete records of past fire occurrence at discrete points in space, inferences must be made to reconstruct fire frequency and extent across landscapes using spatial networks of fire-scar samples. Assessing the relative accuracy of fire...

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Eruption Locations, Compositions, and Styles in Northern Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietterich, H. R.; Stelten, M. E.; Downs, D. T.; Champion, D. E.

2017-12-01

Harrat Rahat is a predominantly mafic, 20,000 km2 volcanic field in western Saudi Arabia with an elongate volcanic axis extending 310 km north-south. Prior mapping suggests that the youngest eruptions were concentrated in northernmost Harrat Rahat, where our new geologic mapping and geochronology reveal >300 eruptive vents with ages ranging from 1.2 Ma to a historic eruption in 1256 CE. Eruption compositions and styles vary spatially and temporally within the volcanic field, where extensive alkali basaltic lavas dominate, but more evolved compositions erupted episodically as clusters of trachytic domes and small-volume pyroclastic flows. Analysis of vent locations, compositions, and eruption styles shows the evolution of the volcanic field and allows assessment of the spatio-temporal probabilities of vent opening and eruption styles. We link individual vents and fissures to eruptions and their deposits using field relations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar and 36Cl geochronology. Eruption volumes and deposit extents are derived from geologic mapping and topographic analysis. Spatial density analysis with kernel density estimation captures vent densities of up to 0.2 %/km2 along the north-south running volcanic axis, decaying quickly away to the east but reaching a second, lower high along a secondary axis to the west. Temporal trends show slight younging of mafic eruption ages to the north in the past 300 ka, as well as clustered eruptions of trachytes over the past 150 ka. Vent locations, timing, and composition are integrated through spatial probability weighted by eruption age for each compositional range to produce spatio-temporal models of vent opening probability. These show that the next mafic eruption is most probable within the north end of the main (eastern) volcanic axis, whereas more evolved compositions are most likely to erupt within the trachytic centers further to the south. These vent opening probabilities, combined with corresponding eruption properties, can be used as the basis for lava flow and tephra fall hazard maps.

Sandia National Laboratories, Tonopah Test Range Fire Control Bunker (Building 09-51): Photographs and Written Historical and Descriptive Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ullrich, Rebecca A.

The Fire Control Bunker (Building 09-51) is a contributing element to the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Tonopah Test Range (TTR) Historic District. The SNL TTR Historic District played a significant role in U.S. Cold War history in the areas of stockpile surveillance and non-nuclear field testing of nuclear weapons design. The district covers approximately 179,200 acres and illustrates Cold War development testing of nuclear weapons components and systems. This report includes historical information, architectural information, sources of information, project information, maps, blueprints, and photographs.

Sandia National Laboratories, Tonopah Test Range Assembly Building 9B (Building 09-54): Photographs and Written Historical and Descriptive Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ullrich, Rebecca A.

Assembly Building 9B (Building 09-54) is a contributing element to the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Tonopah Test Range (TTR) Historic District. The SNL TTR Historic District played a significant role in U.S. Cold War history in the areas of stockpile surveillance and non-nuclear field testing of nuclear weapons designs. The district covers approximately 179,200 acres and illustrates Cold War development testing of nuclear weapons components and systems. This report includes historical information, architectural information, sources of information, project information, maps, blueprints, and photographs.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

Trait-Dependent Biogeography: (Re)Integrating Biology into Probabilistic Historical Biogeographical Models.

PubMed

Sukumaran, Jeet; Knowles, L Lacey

2018-06-01

The development of process-based probabilistic models for historical biogeography has transformed the field by grounding it in modern statistical hypothesis testing. However, most of these models abstract away biological differences, reducing species to interchangeable lineages. We present here the case for reintegration of biology into probabilistic historical biogeographical models, allowing a broader range of questions about biogeographical processes beyond ancestral range estimation or simple correlation between a trait and a distribution pattern, as well as allowing us to assess how inferences about ancestral ranges themselves might be impacted by differential biological traits. We show how new approaches to inference might cope with the computational challenges resulting from the increased complexity of these trait-based historical biogeographical models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical range of variability in landscape structure: a simulation study in Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

Etsuko Nonaka; Thomas A. Spies

2005-01-01

We estimated the historical range of variability (HRV) of forest landscape structure under natural disturbance regimes at the scale of a physiographic province (Oregon Coast Range, 2 million ha) and evaluated the similarity to HRV of current and future landscapes under alternative management scenarios. We used a stochastic fire simulation model to simulate...

Comparative phylogeography and demographic history of the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor): implications for late Quaternary history of the taiga species in Eurasia.

PubMed

Fedorov, V B; Goropashnaya, A V; Boeskorov, G G; Cook, J A

2008-01-01

The association between demographic history, genealogy and geographical distribution of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b haplotypes was studied in the wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor), a species that is closely associated with the boreal forest of the Eurasian taiga zone from Scandinavia to the Pacific coast. Except for a major phylogeographic discontinuity (0.9% nucleotide divergence) in southeastern Siberia, only shallow regional genetic structure was detected across northern Eurasia. Genetic signs of demographic expansions imply that successive range contractions and expansions on different spatial scales represented the primary historical events that shaped geographical patterns of genetic variation. Comparison of phylogeographic structure across a taxonomically diverse array of other species that are ecologically associated with the taiga forest revealed similar patterns and identified two general aspects. First, the major south-north phylogeographic discontinuity observed in five out of six species studied in southeastern Siberia and the Far East implies vicariant separation in two different refugial areas. The limited distribution range of the southeastern lineages provides no evidence of the importance of the putative southeastern refugial area for postglacial colonization of northern Eurasia by boreal forest species. Second, the lack of phylogeographic structure associated with significant reciprocal monophyly and genetic signatures of demographic expansion in all nine boreal forest animal species studied to date across most of northern Eurasia imply contraction of each species to a single refugial area during the late Pleistocene followed by range expansion on a continental scale. Similar phylogeographic patterns observed in this taxonomically diverse set of organisms with different life histories and dispersal potentials reflect the historical dynamics of their shared environment, the taiga forest in northern Eurasia.

"Walking and watching" in queer London: Sarah Waters' Tipping The Velvet and The Night Watch.

PubMed

Wood, Rachel

2013-01-01

This article argues that Sarah Waters' representation of London in her historical fictions Tipping the Velvet and The Night Watch is used to delineate the gendered bodies and sexual identities of her characters. A historical summary demonstrates that female masculinity was slowly mapped onto sexual identity between the 1880s and 1940s in Britain. The article argues that Waters' "inventive" use of this history allows her to question the construction of both historical and contemporary identifications. The way that Waters' characters are constricted and liberated by London's urban landscape demonstrates the spatial and temporal contingency of both gender and sexuality.

Unsupervised Word Spotting in Historical Handwritten Document Images using Document-oriented Local Features.

PubMed

Zagoris, Konstantinos; Pratikakis, Ioannis; Gatos, Basilis

2017-05-03

Word spotting strategies employed in historical handwritten documents face many challenges due to variation in the writing style and intense degradation. In this paper, a new method that permits effective word spotting in handwritten documents is presented that it relies upon document-oriented local features which take into account information around representative keypoints as well a matching process that incorporates spatial context in a local proximity search without using any training data. Experimental results on four historical handwritten datasets for two different scenarios (segmentation-based and segmentation-free) using standard evaluation measures show the improved performance achieved by the proposed methodology.

The relative importance among anthropogenic forcings of land use/land cover change in affecting temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2018-05-01

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) exerts significant influence on regional climate extremes, but its relative importance compared with other anthropogenic climate forcings has not been thoroughly investigated. This study compares land use forcing with other forcing agents in explaining the simulated historical temperature extreme changes since preindustrial times in the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) project. CESM-LME suggests that the land use forcing has caused an overall cooling in both warm and cold extremes, and has significantly decreased diurnal temperature range (DTR). Due to the competing effects of the GHG and aerosol forcings, the spatial pattern of changes in 1850-2005 climatology of temperature extremes in CESM-LME can be largely explained by the land use forcing, especially for hot extremes and DTR. The dominance of land use forcing is particularly evident over Europe, eastern China, and the central and eastern US. Temporally, the land-use cooling is relatively stable throughout the historical period, while the warming of temperature extremes is mainly influenced by the enhanced GHG forcing, which has gradually dampened the local dominance of the land use effects. Results from the suite of CMIP5 experiments partially agree with the local dominance of the land use forcing in CESM-LME, but inter-model discrepancies exist in the distribution and sign of the LULCC-induced temperature changes. Our results underline the overall importance of LULCC in historical temperature extreme changes, implying land use forcing should be highlighted in future climate projections.

Exposure matrix development for the Libby cohort.

PubMed

Noonan, C W

2006-11-01

The Libby, MT, cohort includes current and former residents with potential historical exposure to asbestos-contaminated vermiculite. This cohort includes individuals with a broad range of exposure experiences and work histories. While both occupational and nonoccupational exposure pathways were found to be relevant in recent investigations of health effects among this cohort, there has not been a comprehensive approach to characterizing these varied exposure pathways. Any approach toward assessing historical exposures among this population must account for three general categories: (1) occupational exposures, (2) residential exposures, and (3) exposures related to a variety of nonoccupational activities thought to be associated with vermiculite/asbestos exposure in this community. First, a job exposure matrix is commonly used in occupational epidemiology to assess historical worker exposures, allowing for the incorporation of numerous occupational categories and weighting factors applied to specific jobs for different time periods. Second, residential exposures can best be quantified by integrating individuals' residential histories with data on environmental asbestos contamination in the community. Previous soil or sediment sampling as well as air modeling could inform estimates of time- and spatial-dependent exposure concentrations for a residential exposure matrix. Finally, exposure opportunities due to nonoccupational activities could be weighted by factors such as time, geography, environmental sampling, and an assessment of the relative importance for each pathway. These three matrices for occupational, residential, and activity exposure pathways could be combined or used separately to provide a more comprehensive and quantitative, or semiquantitative, assessment of individual exposure in future epidemiological studies of this cohort.

Evaluation of Historical and Projected Agricultural Climate Risk Over the Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

2016-12-01

Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural systems. In addition, in the past decade climate extremes have highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural production to climate variability. Quantitative analyses in the climate-agriculture research field have been performed in many studies. However, climate risk still remains difficult to evaluate at large scales yet shows great potential of help us better understand historical climate change impacts and evaluate the future risk given climate projections. In this study, we developed a framework to evaluate climate risk quantitatively by applying statistical methods such as Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation. We applied the framework over different climate regions in the continental US both historically and for modeled climate projections. The relative importance of any major growing season climate index, such as maximum dry period or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting crop yields. The statistical modeling framework was applied using county yields, with irrigated and rainfed yields separated to evaluate the different risk. This framework provides estimates of the climate risk facing agricultural production in the near-term that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. In particular, the method provides robust estimates of importance of irrigation in mitigating agricultural climate risk. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain climate.

Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India.

PubMed

Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E; Wood, Thomas C; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

2013-09-22

Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura-Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km(2) landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration-drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors.

Forest corridors maintain historical gene flow in a tiger metapopulation in the highlands of central India

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sandeep; Dutta, Trishna; Maldonado, Jesús E.; Wood, Thomas C.; Panwar, Hemendra Singh; Seidensticker, John

2013-01-01

Understanding the patterns of gene flow of an endangered species metapopulation occupying a fragmented habitat is crucial for landscape-level conservation planning and devising effective conservation strategies. Tigers (Panthera tigris) are globally endangered and their populations are highly fragmented and exist in a few isolated metapopulations across their range. We used multi-locus genotypic data from 273 individual tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) from four tiger populations of the Satpura–Maikal landscape of central India to determine whether the corridors in this landscape are functional. This 45 000 km2 landscape contains 17% of India's tiger population and 12% of its tiger habitat. We applied Bayesian and coalescent-based analyses to estimate contemporary and historical gene flow among these populations and to infer their evolutionary history. We found that the tiger metapopulation in central India has high rates of historical and contemporary gene flow. The tests for population history reveal that tigers populated central India about 10 000 years ago. Their population subdivision began about 1000 years ago and accelerated about 200 years ago owing to habitat fragmentation, leading to four spatially separated populations. These four populations have been in migration–drift equilibrium maintained by high gene flow. We found the highest rates of contemporary gene flow in populations that are connected by forest corridors. This information is highly relevant to conservation practitioners and policy makers, because deforestation, road widening and mining are imminent threats to these corridors. PMID:23902910

Limited genetic differentiation among breeding, molting, and wintering groups of the threatened Steller's eider: The role of historic and contemporary factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.; Talbot, S.L.; Petersen, M.R.; Rearick, J.R.

2005-01-01

Due to declines in the Alaska breeding population, the Steller's eider (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened in North America in 1997. Periodic non-breeding in Russia and Alaska has hampered field-based assessments of behavioral patterns critical to recovery plans, such as levels of breeding site fidelity and movements among three regional populations: Atlantic-Russia, Pacific-Russia and Alaska. Therefore, we analyzed samples from across the species range with seven nuclear microsatellite DNA loci and cytochrome b mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequence data to infer levels of interchange among sampling areas and patterns of site fidelity. Results demonstrated low levels of population differentiation within Atlantic and Pacific nesting areas, with higher levels observed between these regions, but only for mtDNA. Bayesian analysis of microsatellite data from wintering and molting birds showed no signs of sub-population structure, even though band-recovery data suggests multiple breeding areas are present. We observed higher estimates of F-statistics for female mtDNA data versus male data, suggesting female-biased natal site fidelity. Summary statistics for mtDNA were consistent with models of historic population expansion. Lack of spatial structure in Steller's eiders may result largely from insufficient time since historic population expansions for behaviors, such as natal site fidelity, to isolate breeding areas genetically. However, other behaviors such as the periodic non-breeding observed in Steller's eiders may also play a more contemporary role in genetic homogeneity, especially for microsatellite loci. 

Historical Epidemics Cartography Generated by Spatial Analysis: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Three Medieval "Plagues" in Dijon

PubMed Central

Galanaud, Pierre; Galanaud, Anne; Giraudoux, Patrick

2015-01-01

Objectives This work was designed to adapt Geographical Information System-based spatial analysis to the study of historical epidemics. We mapped "plague" deaths during three epidemics of the early 15th century, analyzed spatial distributions by applying the Kulldorff's method, and determined their relationships with the distribution of socio-professional categories in the city of Dijon. Materials and Methods Our study was based on a database including 50 annual tax registers (established from 1376 to 1447) indicating deaths and survivors among the heads of households, their home location, tax level and profession. The households of the deceased and survivors during 6 years with excess mortality were individually located on a georeferenced medieval map, established by taking advantage of the preserved geography of the historical center of Dijon. We searched for clusters of heads of households characterized by shared tax levels (high-tax payers, the upper decile; low-tax payers, the half charged at the minimum level) or professional activities and for clusters of differential mortality. Results High-tax payers were preferentially in the northern intramural part, as well as most wealthy or specialized professionals, whereas low-tax payers were preferentially in the southern part. During two epidemics, in 1400–1401 and 1428, areas of higher mortality were found in the northern part whereas areas of lower mortality were in the southern one. A high concentration of housing and the proximity to food stocks were common features of the most affected areas, creating suitable conditions for rats to pullulate. A third epidemic, lasting from 1438 to 1440 had a different and evolving geography: cases were initially concentrated around the southern gate, at the confluence of three rivers, they were then diffuse, and ended with residual foci of deaths in the northern suburb. Conclusion Using a selected historical source, we designed an approach allowing spatial analysis of urban medieval epidemics. Our results fit with the view that the 1400–1401 epidemic was a Black Death recurrence. They suggest that this was also the case in 1428, whereas in 1438–1440 a different, possibly waterborne, disease was involved. PMID:26625117

The role of reserves and anthropogenic elements for functional connectivity and resilience of ephemeral habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Hellman, Michelle L.; Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.

2014-01-01

Ecological reserves provide important wildlife habitat in many landscapes, and the functional connectivity of reserves and other suitable habitat patches is crucial for the persistence and resilience of spatially structured populations. To maintain or increase connectivity at spatial scales larger than individual patches, conservation actions may focus on creating and maintaining reserves and/or influencing management on non-reserves. Using a graph-theoretic approach, we assessed the functional connectivity and spatial distribution of wetlands in the Rainwater Basin of Nebraska, USA, an intensively cultivated agricultural matrix, at four assumed, but ecologically realistic, anuran dispersal distances. We compared connectivity in the current landscape to the historical landscape and putative future landscapes, and evaluated the importance of individual and aggregated reserve and non-reserve wetlands for maintaining connectivity. Connectivity was greatest in the historical landscape, where wetlands were also the most densely distributed. The construction of irrigation reuse pits for water storage has maintained connectivity in the current landscape by replacing destroyed wetlands, but these pits likely provide suboptimal habitat. Also, because there are fewer total wetlands (i.e., wetlands and irrigation reuse pits) in the current landscape than the historical landscape, and because the distribution of current wetlands is less clustered than that of historical wetlands, larger and longer dispersing, sometimes nonnative species may be favored over smaller, shorter dispersing species of conservation concern. Because of their relatively low number, wetland reserves do not affect connectivity as greatly as non-reserve wetlands or irrigation reuse pits; however, they likely provide the highest quality anuran habitat. To improve future levels of resilience in this wetland habitat network, management could focus on continuing to improve the conservation status of non-reserve wetlands, restoring wetlands at spatial scales that promote movements of shorter dispersing species, and further scrutinizing irrigation reuse pit removal by considering effects on functional connectivity for anurans, an emblematic and threatened group of organisms. However, broader conservation plans will need to give consideration to other wetland-dependent species, incorporate invasive species management, and address additional challenges arising from global change in social-ecological systems like the Rainwater Basin.

A high-resolution, regional analysis of stormwater runoff for managed aquifer recharge site assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, K. S.; Fisher, A. T.; Beganskas, S.; Harmon, R. E.; Teo, E. K.; Weir, W. B.; Lozano, S.

2016-12-01

Distributed Stormwater Collection-Managed Aquifer Recharge (DSC-MAR) presents a cost-effective method of aquifer replenishment by collecting runoff and infiltrating it into underlying aquifers, but its successful implementation demands thorough knowledge of the distribution and availability of hillslope runoff. We applied a surface hydrology model to analyze the dynamics of hillslope runoff at high resolution (0.1 to 1.0 km2) across the 350 km2 San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB) watershed, northern Santa Cruz County, CA. We used a 3 m digital elevation model to create a detailed model grid, which we parameterized with high-resolution geologic, hydrologic, and land use data. To analyze hillslope runoff under a range of precipitation regimes, we developed dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios from historic daily precipitation records (1981-2014). Simulation results show high spatial variability of hillslope runoff generation as a function of differences in precipitation and soil and land use conditions, and reveal a consistent increase in the spatial and temporal variability of runoff under wetter climate scenarios. Our results suggest that there may be opportunities to develop successful DSC-MAR projects that provide benefits during all climate scenarios. In the SLRB, our results indicate that annual hillslope runoff generation achieves a target minimum of 100 acre-ft, per 100 acres of drainage area, in approximately 15% of the region during dry climate scenarios and 60% of the region during wet climate scenarios. The high spatial and temporal resolution of our simulation output enables quantification of hillslope runoff at sub-watershed scales, commensurate with the spacing and operation of DSC-MAR. This study demonstrates a viable tool for screening of potential DSC-MAR project sites and assessing project performance under a range of climate and land use scenarios.

Spatial distributions and deposition chronology of short chain chlorinated paraffins in marine sediments across the Chinese Bohai and Yellow Seas.

PubMed

Zeng, Lixi; Chen, Ru; Zhao, Zongshan; Wang, Thanh; Gao, Yan; Li, An; Wang, Yawei; Jiang, Guibin; Sun, Liguang

2013-10-15

As the most complex halogenated contaminants, short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) are scarcely reported in marine environments. In this work, a total of 117 surficial sediment (0-3 cm) samples and two sediment cores were collected from the Chinese Bohai and Yellow Seas to systematically study the spatial and temporal trends of SCCPs at a large scale in the Chinese marine environment. Total SCCP concentrations in the surficial sediments were in the range of 14.5-85.2 ng g(-1) (dry weight, d.w.) with an average level of 38.4 ng g(-1) d.w. Spatial distribution showed a decreasing trend with the distance from the coast to the open waters. Compositional pattern analysis suggested that C10 was the most predominant homologue group, followed by C11, C12, and C13 homologue groups. The concentrations of total SCCPs in sediment cores ranged from 11.6 to 94.7 ng g(-1) d.w. for YS1 and from 14.7 to 195.6 ng g(-1) d.w. for YS2, with sharp rise from the early 1950s to present based on (210)Pb dating technique. The historical records in cores correspond well to the production and usage changes of CPs in China. Multivariate regression statistics indicate TOC, latitude and longitude are the major factors influencing surficial SCCP levels in the Chinese East Seas by combining analysis with the data from the East China Sea (R(2) = 0.332, p < 0.01). These findings indicated that the sources of SCCPs were mainly from river outflows via ocean current and partly from atmospheric depositions by East Asian monsoon in the sampling areas.

Gaseous and Freely-Dissolved PCBs in the Lower Great Lakes Based on Passive Sampling: Spatial Trends and Air-Water Exchange.

PubMed

Liu, Ying; Wang, Siyao; McDonough, Carrie A; Khairy, Mohammed; Muir, Derek C G; Helm, Paul A; Lohmann, Rainer

2016-05-17

Polyethylene passive sampling was performed to quantify gaseous and freely dissolved polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the air and water of Lakes Erie and Ontario during 2011-2012. In view of differing physical characteristics and the impacts of historical contamination by PCBs within these lakes, spatial variation of PCB concentrations and air-water exchange across these lakes may be expected. Both lakes displayed statistically similar aqueous and atmospheric PCB concentrations. Total aqueous concentrations of 29 PCBs ranged from 1.5 pg L(-1) in the open lake of Lake Erie (site E02) in 2011 spring to 105 pg L(-1) in Niagara (site On05) in 2012 summer, while total atmospheric concentrations were 7.7-634 pg m(-3) across both lakes. A west-to-east gradient was observed for aqueous PCBs in Lake Erie. River discharge and localized influences (e.g., sediment resuspension and regional alongshore transport) likely dominated spatial trends of aqueous PCBs in both lakes. Air-water exchange fluxes of Σ7PCBs ranged from -2.4 (±1.9) ng m(-2) day(-1) (deposition) in Sheffield (site E03) to 9.0 (±3.1) ng m(-2) day(-1) (volatilization) in Niagara (site On05). Net volatilization of PCBs was the primary trend across most sites and periods. Almost half of variation in air-water exchange fluxes was attributed to the difference in aqueous concentrations of PCBs. Uncertainty analysis in fugacity ratios and mass fluxes in air-water exchange of PCBs indicated that PCBs have reached or approached equilibrium only at the eastern Lake Erie and along the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario sites, where air-water exchange fluxes dominated atmospheric concentrations.

Founder takes all: density-dependent processes structure biodiversity.

PubMed

Waters, Jonathan M; Fraser, Ceridwen I; Hewitt, Godfrey M

2013-02-01

Density-dependent processes play a key role in the spatial structuring of biodiversity. Specifically, interrelated demographic processes, such as gene surfing, high-density blocking, and competitive exclusion, can generate striking geographic contrasts in the distributions of genes and species. Here, we propose that well-studied evolutionary and ecological biogeographic patterns of postglacial recolonization, progressive island colonization, microbial sectoring, and even the 'Out of Africa' pattern of human expansion, are fundamentally similar, underpinned by a 'founder takes all' density-dependent principle. Additionally, we hypothesize that older historic constraints of density-dependent processes are seen today in the dramatic biogeographic shifts that occur in response to human-mediated extinction events, whereby surviving lineages rapidly expand their ranges to replace extinct sister taxa. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scale self-adapting segmentation approach and knowledge transfer for automatically updating land use/cover change databases using high spatial resolution images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhihua; Yang, Xiaomei; Lu, Chen; Yang, Fengshuo

2018-07-01

Automatic updating of land use/cover change (LUCC) databases using high spatial resolution images (HSRI) is important for environmental monitoring and policy making, especially for coastal areas that connect the land and coast and that tend to change frequently. Many object-based change detection methods are proposed, especially those combining historical LUCC with HSRI. However, the scale parameter(s) segmenting the serial temporal images, which directly determines the average object size, is hard to choose without experts' intervention. And the samples transferred from historical LUCC also need experts' intervention to avoid insufficient or wrong samples. With respect to the scale parameter(s) choosing, a Scale Self-Adapting Segmentation (SSAS) approach based on the exponential sampling of a scale parameter and location of the local maximum of a weighted local variance was proposed to determine the scale selection problem when segmenting images constrained by LUCC for detecting changes. With respect to the samples transferring, Knowledge Transfer (KT), a classifier trained on historical images with LUCC and applied in the classification of updated images, was also proposed. Comparison experiments were conducted in a coastal area of Zhujiang, China, using SPOT 5 images acquired in 2005 and 2010. The results reveal that (1) SSAS can segment images more effectively without intervention of experts. (2) KT can also reach the maximum accuracy of samples transfer without experts' intervention. Strategy SSAS + KT would be a good choice if the temporal historical image and LUCC match, and the historical image and updated image are obtained from the same resource.

Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

2015-12-01

Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shanlei; Wang, Guojie; Huang, Jin; Mu, Mengyuan; Yan, Guixia; Liu, Chunwei; Gao, Chujie; Li, Xing; Yin, Yixing; Zhang, Fangmin; Zhu, Siguang; Hua, Wenjian

2017-11-01

Due to the close relationship of climate change with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), detecting changes in ETo spatial distribution and its temporal evolution at local and regional levels is favorable to comprehensively understand climate change-induced impacts on hydrology and agriculture. In this study, the objective is to identify whether climate change has caused variation of ETo spatial distribution in different analysis periods [i.e., long- (20-year), medium- (10-year), and short-term (5-year)] and to investigate its temporal evolution (namely, when these changes happened) at annual and monthly scales in Southwest China (SWC). First, we estimated ETo values using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, based on historical climate data measured at 269 weather sites during 1973-2012. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicated that the spatial pattern of annual ETo had significantly changed during the past 40 years, particularly in west SWC for the long-term analysis period, and west and southeast SWC in both medium- and short-term periods, which corresponded to the percent area of significant differences which were 21.9, 58.0, and 48.2 %, respectively. For investigating temporal evolution of spatial patterns of annual ETo, Duncan's multiple range test was used, and we found that the most significant changes appeared during 1988-2002 with the significant area of higher than 25.0 %. In addition, for long-, medium-, and short-term analysis periods, the spatial distribution has significantly changed during March, September, November, and December, especially in the corresponding periods of 1988-1997, 1983-1992, 1973-1977, and 1988-2002. All in all, climate change has resulted in significant ETo changes in SWC since the 1970s. Knowledge of climate change-induced spatial distribution of ETo and its temporal evolution would aid in formulating strategies for water resources and agricultural managements.

Fifty years of research progress: a historical document on the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range.

Treesearch

Jon M. Skovlin

1991-01-01

This document traces the history of the Starkey Experimental Forest and Range since its establishment on July 11, 1940. It recalls the historical process of community development and the evolution of forest, range, and wildlife exploitation, which produced the conditions making the area appropriate for a research station. This paper recounts the comings and goings of...

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Thieler, E.R.; Williams, S.J.

2010-01-01

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Assessment method of accessibility conditions: how to make public buildings accessible?

PubMed

Andrade, Isabela Fernandes; Ely, e Vera Helena Moro Bins

2012-01-01

The enforcement of accessibility today has faced several difficulties, such as intervention in historic buildings that now house public services and cultural activities, such as town halls, museums and theaters and should allow access, on equal terms to all people. The paper presents the application of a method for evaluating the spatial accessibility conditions and their results. For this, we sought to support the theoretical foundation about the main issue involved and legislation. From the method used--guided walks--it was possible to identify the main barriers to accessibility in historic buildings. From the identified barriers, possible solutions are presented according to the four components of accessibility: spatial orientation, displacement, use and communication. It is hoped also that the knowledge gained in this research contributes to an improvement of accessibility legislation in relation to the listed items.

Comparative Phylogeographic Analyses Illustrate the Complex Evolutionary History of Threatened Cloud Forests of Northern Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Sosa, Victoria; Soltis, Douglas E.; Daza, Juan M.; González, Clementina; Soltis, Pamela S.; Gutiérrez-Rodríguez, Carla; de los Monteros, Alejandro Espinosa; Castoe, Todd A.; Bell, Charles; Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo

2013-01-01

Comparative phylogeography can elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity and can identify patterns of co-vicariance among unrelated taxa that span the same geographic areas. Here we analyze temporal and spatial divergence patterns of cloud forest plant and animal species and relate them to the evolutionary history of naturally fragmented cloud forests–among the most threatened vegetation types in northern Mesoamerica. We used comparative phylogeographic analyses to identify patterns of co-vicariance in taxa that share geographic ranges across cloud forest habitats and to elucidate the influence of historical events on current patterns of biodiversity. We document temporal and spatial genetic divergence of 15 species (including seed plants, birds and rodents), and relate them to the evolutionary history of the naturally fragmented cloud forests. We used fossil-calibrated genealogies, coalescent-based divergence time inference, and estimates of gene flow to assess the permeability of putative barriers to gene flow. We also used the hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (HABC) method implemented in the program msBayes to test simultaneous versus non-simultaneous divergence of the cloud forest lineages. Our results show shared phylogeographic breaks that correspond to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Los Tuxtlas, and the Chiapas Central Depression, with the Isthmus representing the most frequently shared break among taxa. However, dating analyses suggest that the phylogeographic breaks corresponding to the Isthmus occurred at different times in different taxa. Current divergence patterns are therefore consistent with the hypothesis of broad vicariance across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec derived from different mechanisms operating at different times. This study, coupled with existing data on divergence cloud forest species, indicates that the evolutionary history of contemporary cloud forest lineages is complex and often lineage-specific, and thus difficult to capture in a simple conservation strategy. PMID:23409165

The Utility of CDOM for Improving the Resolution of Riverine DOM Fluxes and Biogeochemical Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, R. G.; Aiken, G.; Mann, P. J.; Holmes, R. M.; Niggemann, J.; Dittmar, T.; Hernes, P.; Stubbins, A.

2014-12-01

A major historical limitation to geochemical studies assessing fluvial fluxes of dissolved organic matter (DOM) has been the issue of both temporal and spatial scaling. Examples will be presented from watersheds around the world highlighting how chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) measurements can be utilized as proxies for more intensive and expensive analytical analyses (e.g. molecular-level organic biomarkers). Utilizing these refined CDOM loads for terrigenous biomarkers results in improved temporal resolution and a significant change in flux estimates. Examining CDOM and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux data from an assortment of terrestrial biomes we establish a robust relationship between CDOM and DOC loads. The application of this relationship allows future studies to derive DOC loads from CDOM utilizing emerging in-situ or remote sensing technologies and thus refine river-to-ocean DOC fluxes, as well as exploit historic imagery to examine how fluxes may have changed. Calculated CDOM yields from a range of rivers are correlated to watershed percent wetland and highlight the importance of certain regions with respect to CDOM flux to the coastal ocean. This approach indicates that future studies might predict CDOM and DOC yields for different watershed types that could then be readily converted to loads providing for the estimation of CDOM and DOC export from ungauged watersheds. Examination of CDOM yields also highlights important geographical regions for future study with respect to the role of terrigenous CDOM in ocean color budgets and CDOM's role in biogeochemical processes. Finally, examples will be presented linking CDOM parameters to DOM composition and biogeochemical properties with the aim of providing measurements to improve the spatial and especially temporal resolution of the role DOM plays in fluvial networks.

Mitochondrial DNA regionalism and historical demography in the extant populations of Chirocephalus kerkyrensis (Branchiopoda: Anostraca).

PubMed

Ketmaier, Valerio; Marrone, Federico; Alfonso, Giuseppe; Paulus, Kirsten; Wiemann, Annika; Tiedemann, Ralph; Mura, Graziella

2012-01-01

Mediterranean temporary water bodies are important reservoirs of biodiversity and host a unique assemblage of diapausing aquatic invertebrates. These environments are currently vanishing because of increasing human pressure. Chirocephalus kerkyrensis is a fairy shrimp typical of temporary water bodies in Mediterranean plain forests and has undergone a substantial decline in number of populations in recent years due to habitat loss. We assessed patterns of genetic connectivity and phylogeographic history in the seven extant populations of the species from Albania, Corfu Is. (Greece), Southern and Central Italy. We analyzed sequence variation at two mitochondrial DNA genes (Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16s rRNA) in all the known populations of C. kerkyrensis. We used multiple phylogenetic, phylogeographic and coalescence-based approaches to assess connectivity and historical demography across the whole distribution range of the species. C. kerkyrensis is genetically subdivided into three main mitochondrial lineages; two of them are geographically localized (Corfu Is. and Central Italy) and one encompasses a wide geographic area (Albania and Southern Italy). Most of the detected genetic variation (≈81%) is apportioned among the aforementioned lineages. Multiple analyses of mismatch distributions consistently supported both past demographic and spatial expansions with the former predating the latter; demographic expansions were consistently placed during interglacial warm phases of the Pleistocene while spatial expansions were restricted to cold periods. Coalescence methods revealed a scenario of past isolation with low levels of gene flow in line with what is already known for other co-distributed fairy shrimps and suggest drift as the prevailing force in promoting local divergence. We recommend that these evolutionary trajectories should be taken in proper consideration in any effort aimed at protecting Mediterranean temporary water bodies.

Mitochondrial DNA Regionalism and Historical Demography in the Extant Populations of Chirocephalus kerkyrensis (Branchiopoda: Anostraca)

PubMed Central

Ketmaier, Valerio; Marrone, Federico; Alfonso, Giuseppe; Paulus, Kirsten; Wiemann, Annika; Tiedemann, Ralph; Mura, Graziella

2012-01-01

Background Mediterranean temporary water bodies are important reservoirs of biodiversity and host a unique assemblage of diapausing aquatic invertebrates. These environments are currently vanishing because of increasing human pressure. Chirocephalus kerkyrensis is a fairy shrimp typical of temporary water bodies in Mediterranean plain forests and has undergone a substantial decline in number of populations in recent years due to habitat loss. We assessed patterns of genetic connectivity and phylogeographic history in the seven extant populations of the species from Albania, Corfu Is. (Greece), Southern and Central Italy. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed sequence variation at two mitochondrial DNA genes (Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16s rRNA) in all the known populations of C. kerkyrensis. We used multiple phylogenetic, phylogeographic and coalescence-based approaches to assess connectivity and historical demography across the whole distribution range of the species. C. kerkyrensis is genetically subdivided into three main mitochondrial lineages; two of them are geographically localized (Corfu Is. and Central Italy) and one encompasses a wide geographic area (Albania and Southern Italy). Most of the detected genetic variation (≈81%) is apportioned among the aforementioned lineages. Conclusions/Significance Multiple analyses of mismatch distributions consistently supported both past demographic and spatial expansions with the former predating the latter; demographic expansions were consistently placed during interglacial warm phases of the Pleistocene while spatial expansions were restricted to cold periods. Coalescence methods revealed a scenario of past isolation with low levels of gene flow in line with what is already known for other co-distributed fairy shrimps and suggest drift as the prevailing force in promoting local divergence. We recommend that these evolutionary trajectories should be taken in proper consideration in any effort aimed at protecting Mediterranean temporary water bodies. PMID:22363417

Local Spatial Heterogeneity of Holocene Carbon Accumulation throughout the Peat Profile of an Ombrotrophic Northern Minnesota Bog

DOE PAGES

McFarlane, Karis J.; Hanson, Paul J.; Iversen, Colleen M.; ...

2018-05-30

Here, we evaluated the spatial heterogeneity of historical carbon accumulation rates in a forested, ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota to aid understanding of responses to an ongoing decade-long warming manipulation. Eighteen peat cores indicated that the bog has been accumulating carbon for over 11,000 years, to yield 176±40 kg C m –2 to 225±58 cm of peat depth. Estimated peat basal ages ranged from 5100 to 11,100 cal BP. The long-term apparent rate of carbon accumulation over the entire peat profile was 22±2 kg C m –2yr –1. Plot location within the study area did not affect carbon accumulation rates, butmore » estimated basal ages were younger in profiles from plots closer to the bog lagg and farther from the bog outlet. In addition, carbon accumulation varied considerably over time. Early Holocene net carbon accumulation rates were 30±6 g C m –2yr –1. Around 3300 calendar BP, net carbon accumulation rates dropped to 15±8 g C m –2yr –1until the last century when net accumulation rates increased again to 74±57 g C m –2yr –1. During this period of low accumulation, regional droughts may have lowered the water table, allowing for enhanced aerobic decomposition and making the bog more susceptible to fire. These results suggest that experimental warming treatments, as well as a future warmer climate may reduce net carbon accumulation in peat in this and other southern boreal peatlands. Furthermore, our we caution against historical interpretations extrapolated from one or a few peat cores.« less

Spatial distribution of podoconiosis in relation to environmental factors in Ethiopia: a historical review.

PubMed

Deribe, Kebede; Brooker, Simon J; Pullan, Rachel L; Hailu, Asrat; Enquselassie, Fikre; Reithinger, Richard; Newport, Melanie; Davey, Gail

2013-01-01

An up-to-date and reliable map of podoconiosis is needed to design geographically targeted and cost-effective intervention in Ethiopia. Identifying the ecological correlates of the distribution of podoconiosis is the first step for distribution and risk maps. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and ecological correlates of podoconiosis using historical and contemporary survey data. Data on the observed prevalence of podoconiosis were abstracted from published and unpublished literature into a standardized database, according to strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. In total, 10 studies conducted between 1969 and 2012 were included, and data were available for 401,674 individuals older than 15 years of age from 229 locations. A range of high resolution environmental factors were investigated to determine their association with podoconiosis prevalence, using logistic regression. The prevalence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia was estimated at 3.4% (95% CI 3.3%-3.4%) with marked regional variation. We identified significant associations between mean annual Land Surface Temperature (LST), mean annual precipitation, topography of the land and fine soil texture and high prevalence of podoconiosis. The derived maps indicate both widespread occurrence of podoconiosis and a marked variability in prevalence of podoconiosis, with prevalence typically highest at altitudes >1500 m above sea level (masl), with >1500 mm annual rainfall and mean annual LST of 19-21°C. No (or very little) podoconiosis occurred at altitudes <1225 masl, with annual rainfall <900 mm, and mean annual LST of >24°C. Podoconiosis remains a public health problem in Ethiopia over considerable areas of the country, but exhibits marked geographical variation associated in part with key environmental factors. This is work in progress and the results presented here will be refined in future work.

Local Spatial Heterogeneity of Holocene Carbon Accumulation throughout the Peat Profile of an Ombrotrophic Northern Minnesota Bog

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McFarlane, Karis J.; Hanson, Paul J.; Iversen, Colleen M.

Here, we evaluated the spatial heterogeneity of historical carbon accumulation rates in a forested, ombrotrophic bog in Minnesota to aid understanding of responses to an ongoing decade-long warming manipulation. Eighteen peat cores indicated that the bog has been accumulating carbon for over 11,000 years, to yield 176±40 kg C m –2 to 225±58 cm of peat depth. Estimated peat basal ages ranged from 5100 to 11,100 cal BP. The long-term apparent rate of carbon accumulation over the entire peat profile was 22±2 kg C m –2yr –1. Plot location within the study area did not affect carbon accumulation rates, butmore » estimated basal ages were younger in profiles from plots closer to the bog lagg and farther from the bog outlet. In addition, carbon accumulation varied considerably over time. Early Holocene net carbon accumulation rates were 30±6 g C m –2yr –1. Around 3300 calendar BP, net carbon accumulation rates dropped to 15±8 g C m –2yr –1until the last century when net accumulation rates increased again to 74±57 g C m –2yr –1. During this period of low accumulation, regional droughts may have lowered the water table, allowing for enhanced aerobic decomposition and making the bog more susceptible to fire. These results suggest that experimental warming treatments, as well as a future warmer climate may reduce net carbon accumulation in peat in this and other southern boreal peatlands. Furthermore, our we caution against historical interpretations extrapolated from one or a few peat cores.« less

Using the Landsat Archive to Estimate and Map Changes in Agriculture, Forests, and other Land Cover Types in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healey, S. P.; Oduor, P.; Cohen, W. B.; Yang, Z.; Ouko, E.; Gorelick, N.; Wilson, S.

2017-12-01

Every country's land is distributed among different cover types, such as: agriculture; forests; rangeland; urban areas; and barren lands. Changes in the distribution of these classes can inform us about many things, including: population pressure; effectiveness of preservation efforts; desertification; and stability of the food supply. Good assessment of these changes can also support wise planning, use, and preservation of natural resources. We are using the Landsat archive in two ways to provide needed information about land cover change since the year 2000 in seven East African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia). First, we are working with local experts to interpret historical land cover change from historical imagery at a probabilistic sample of 2000 locations in each country. This will provide a statistical estimate of land cover change since 2000. Second, we will use the same data to calibrate and validate annual land cover maps for each country. Because spatial context can be critical to development planning through the identification of hot spots, these maps will be a useful complement to the statistical, country-level estimates of change. The Landsat platform is an ideal tool for mapping land cover change because it combines a mix of appropriate spatial and spectral resolution with unparalleled length of service (Landsat 1 launched in 1972). Pilot tests have shown that time series analysis accessing the entire Landsat archive (i.e., many images per year) improves classification accuracy and stability. It is anticipated that this project will meet the civil needs of both governmental and non-governmental users across a range of disciplines.

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Nielsen, Anne Sofie Elberg; Strange, Niels; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2017-06-01

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual-level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners' willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner-choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ron

2018-01-01

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be exacerbated when coupled, component systems with different physical characteristics and different spatial and temporal scales, and component observations in different media with different spatial and temporal frequencies and different latencies. Quantification of uncertainty in reanalyses is also a critical challenge and is important for expanding their utility as a tool for climate change assessment. This talk provides a brief overview of the progress of reanalysis development during recent decades, and describes remaining challenges in the progression toward coupled Earth system reanalyses.

Historical shoreline mapping (I): improving techniques and reducing positioning errors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thieler, E. Robert; Danforth, William W.

1994-01-01

A critical need exists among coastal researchers and policy-makers for a precise method to obtain shoreline positions from historical maps and aerial photographs. A number of methods that vary widely in approach and accuracy have been developed to meet this need. None of the existing methods, however, address the entire range of cartographic and photogrammetric techniques required for accurate coastal mapping. Thus, their application to many typical shoreline mapping problems is limited. In addition, no shoreline mapping technique provides an adequate basis for quantifying the many errors inherent in shoreline mapping using maps and air photos. As a result, current assessments of errors in air photo mapping techniques generally (and falsely) assume that errors in shoreline positions are represented by the sum of a series of worst-case assumptions about digitizer operator resolution and ground control accuracy. These assessments also ignore altogether other errors that commonly approach ground distances of 10 m. This paper provides a conceptual and analytical framework for improved methods of extracting geographic data from maps and aerial photographs. We also present a new approach to shoreline mapping using air photos that revises and extends a number of photogrammetric techniques. These techniques include (1) developing spatially and temporally overlapping control networks for large groups of photos; (2) digitizing air photos for use in shoreline mapping; (3) preprocessing digitized photos to remove lens distortion and film deformation effects; (4) simultaneous aerotriangulation of large groups of spatially and temporally overlapping photos; and (5) using a single-ray intersection technique to determine geographic shoreline coordinates and express the horizontal and vertical error associated with a given digitized shoreline. As long as historical maps and air photos are used in studies of shoreline change, there will be a considerable amount of error (on the order of several meters) present in shoreline position and rate-of- change calculations. The techniques presented in this paper, however, provide a means to reduce and quantify these errors so that realistic assessments of the technological noise (as opposed to geological noise) in geographic shoreline positions can be made.

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comments on historical variation & desired condition as tools for terrestrial landscape analysis

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

1997-01-01

Historic (natural or reference) variability and desired condition are key ecosystem-management concepts advocated in many approaches to terrestrial landscape analysis. Historical variation is considered to be a conservative indicator of sustainability. If current conditions are outside the range of historic values, management actions are described to realign the system...

Spatial extent of analysis influences observed patterns of population genetic structure in a widespread darter species (Percidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Argentina, Jane E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hallerman, Eric M.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2018-01-01

Connectivity among stream fish populations allows for exchange of genetic material and helps maintain genetic diversity, adaptive potential and population stability over time. Changes in species demographics and population connectivity have the potential to permanently alter the genetic patterns of stream fish, although these changes through space and time are variable and understudied in small‐bodied freshwater fish.As a spatially widespread, common species of benthic freshwater fish, the variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) is a model species for documenting how patterns of genetic structure and diversity respond to increasing isolation due to large dams and how scale of study may shape our understanding of these patterns. We sampled variegate darters from 34 sites across their range in the North American Ohio River basin and examined how patterns of genetic structure and diversity within and between populations responded to historical population changes and dams within and between populations.Spatial scale and configuration of genetic structure varied across the eight identified populations, from tributaries within a watershed, to a single watershed, to multiple watersheds that encompass Ohio River mainstem habitats. This multiwatershed pattern of population structuring suggests genetic dispersal across large distances was and may continue to be common, although some populations remain isolated despite no apparent structural dispersal barriers. Populations with low effective population sizes and evidence of past population bottlenecks showed low allelic richness, but diversity patterns were not related to watershed size, a surrogate for habitat availability. Pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) increased with fluvial distance and was related to both historic and contemporary processes. Genetic diversity changes were influenced by underlying population size and stability, and while instream barriers were not strong determinants of genetic structuring or loss of genetic diversity, they reduce population connectivity and may impact long‐term population persistence.The broad spatial scale of this study demonstrated the large spatial extent of some variegate darter populations and indicated that dispersal is more extensive than expected given the movement patterns typically observed for small‐bodied, benthic fish. Dam impacts depended on underlying population size and stability, with larger populations more resilient to genetic drift and allelic richness loss than smaller populations.Other darters that inhabit large river habitats may show similar patterns in landscape‐scale studies, and large river barriers may impact populations of small‐bodied fish more than previously expected. Estimation of dispersal rates and behaviours is critical to conservation of imperilled riverine species such as darters.

Evaluation of CAESAR-Lisflood as a tool for modelling river channel change and floodplain sediment residence times.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feeney, Christopher; Smith, Hugh; Chiverrell, Richard; Hooke, Janet; Cooper, James

2017-04-01

Sediment residence time represents the duration of particle storage, from initial deposition to remobilisation, within reservoirs such as floodplains. Residence time influences rates of downstream redistribution of sediment and associated contaminants and is a useful indicator of landform stability and hence, preservation potential of alluvial archives of environmental change. River channel change controls residence times, reworking sediments via lateral migration, avulsion and incision through floodplain deposits. As reworking progresses, the floodplain age distribution is 'updated', reflecting the time since 'older' sediments were removed and replaced with 'younger' ones. The relationship between ages and the spatial extents they occupy can be used to estimate the average floodplain sediment residence times. While dating techniques, historic maps and remote sensing can reconstruct age distributions from historic reworking, modelling provides advantages, including: i) capturing detailed river channel changes and resulting floodplain ages over longer timescales and higher resolutions than from historic mapping, and ii) control over inputs to simulate hypothetical scenarios to investigate the effects of different environmental drivers on residence times. CAESAR-Lisflood is a landform evolution model capable of simulating variable channel width, divergent flow, and both braided and meandering planforms. However, the model's ability to accurately simulate channel changes requires evaluation if it is to be useful for quantitative evaluation of floodplain sediment residence times. This study aims to simulate recent historic river channel changes along ten 1 km reaches in northern England. Simulation periods were defined by available overlapping historic map and mean daily flow datasets, ranging 27-39 years. LiDAR-derived 2 m DEMs were modified to smooth out present-day channels and burn in historic channel locations. To reduce run times, DEMs were resampled to coarser resolutions based on the size of the channel and historic rate of lateral channel migration. Separate pre-defined coarse and finer channel bed and floodplain grain size distributions were used, respectively, in combination with constructed reach DEMs for model simulations. Calibration was performed by modifying selected parameters to obtain best fits between observed and modelled channel planforms. Initial simulations suggest the model can broadly reproduce observed planform change and is comparable in terms of channel sinuosities and the mean radius of curvature. As such, CAESAR-Lisflood may provide a useful tool for evaluating floodplain sediment residence times under environmental change scenarios.

Employing UAVs to Acquire Detailed Vegetation and Bare Ground Data for Assessing Rangeland Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Laliberte, A.; Herrick, J. E.; Winters, C.

2007-12-01

Because of its value as a historical record (extending back to the mid 1930s), aerial photography is an important tool used in many rangeland studies. However, these historical photos are not very useful for detailed analysis of rangeland health because of inadequate spatial resolution and scheduling limitations. These issues are now being resolved by using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) over rangeland study areas. Spatial resolution improvements have been rapid in the last 10 years from the QuickBird satellite through improved aerial photography to the new UAV coverage and have utilized improved sensors and the more simplistic approach of low altitude flights. Our rangeland health experiments have shown that the low altitude UAV digital photography is preferred by rangeland scientists because it allows, for the first time, their identification of vegetation and land surface patterns and patches, gap sizes, bare soil percentages, and vegetation type. This hyperspatial imagery (imagery with a resolution finer than the object of interest) is obtained at about 5cm resolution by flying at an altitude of 150m above the surface of the Jornada Experimental Range in southern New Mexico. Additionally, the UAV provides improved temporal flexibility, such as flights immediately following fires, floods, and other catastrophic disturbances, because the flight capability is located near the study area and the vehicles are under the direct control of the users, eliminating the additional steps associated with budgets and contracts. There are significant challenges to improve the data to make them useful for operational agencies, namely, image distortion with inexpensive, consumer grade digital cameras, difficulty in detecting sufficient ground control points in small scenes (152m by 114m), accuracy of exterior UAV information on X,Y, Z, roll, pitch, and heading, the sheer number of images collected, and developing reliable relationships with ground-based data across a broad range of topographies and plant communities. Our efforts are currently focused on developing a complete and efficient workflow for UAV operational missions consisting of flight planning, image acquisition, image rectification and mosaicking, and image classification. The remote sensing capability is being incorporated into existing rangeland health assessment and monitoring protocols.

Invasive potential of cattle fever ticks in the southern United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Abstract' Background For >100 years cattle production in the southern United States has been threatened by cattle fever. It is caused by an invasive parasite-vector complex that includes the protozoan hemoparasites Babesia bovis and B. bigemina, which are transmitted among domestic cattle via Rhipicephalus tick vectors of the subgenus Boophilus. In 1906 an eradication effort was started and by 1943 Boophilus ticks had been confined to a narrow tick eradication quarantine area (TEQA) along the Texas-Mexico border. However, a dramatic increase in tick infestations in areas outside the TEQA over the last decade suggests these tick vectors may be poised to re-invade the southern United States. We investigated historical and potential future distributions of climatic habitats of cattle fever ticks to assess the potential for a range expansion. Methods We built robust spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the vector species Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. (B.) annulatus across the southern United States for three time periods: 1906, present day (2012), and 2050. We used analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) to identify persistent tick occurrences and analysis of bias in the climate proximate to these occurrences to identify key environmental parameters associated with the ecology of both species. We then used ecological niche modeling algorithms GARP and Maxent to construct models that related known occurrences of ticks in the TEQA during 2001–2011 with geospatial data layers that summarized important climate parameters at all three time periods. Results We identified persistent tick infestations and specific climate parameters that appear to be drivers of ecological niches of the two tick species. Spatial models projected onto climate data representative of climate in 1906 reproduced historical pre-eradication tick distributions. Present-day predictions, although constrained to areas near the TEQA, extrapolated well onto climate projections for 2050. Conclusions Our models indicate the potential for range expansion of climate suitable for survival of R. microplus and R. annulatus in the southern United States by mid-century, which increases the risk of reintroduction of these ticks and cattle tick fever into major cattle producing areas. PMID:24742062

Reconstruction of atmospheric trace metals pollution in Southwest China using sediments from a large and deep alpine lake: Historical trends, sources and sediment focusing.

PubMed

Lin, Qi; Liu, Enfeng; Zhang, Enlou; Nath, Bibhash; Shen, Ji; Yuan, Hezhong; Wang, Rong

2018-02-01

Atmospheric pollution, one of the leading environmental problems in South and East Asia, and its impact on the terrestrial environmental quality remain poorly understood particularly in alpine areas where both historical and present-day mining and smelting operations might leave an imprint. Here, we reconstructed atmospheric trace metals pollution during the past century using core sediments from a large and deep alpine lake in Southwest China. The implication of in lake and/or in watershed sediment focusing in pollution quantification is discussed by analyzing 15 sediment cores. Factor analysis and enrichment factor indicated Cd, Pb and Sb as the typical pollutants. Distinct peaks of Pb and Sb pollution were observed around the 1920s, but little Pb pollution was detected in recent decades, different from other studies in similar regions. Cadmium pollution was observed until the mid-1980s synchronized with Sb. The distinctive variations in atmospheric trace metal pollution process in Southwest China highlight the regional and sub-regional sources of metal pollutants, which should be primarily attributed to non-ferrous metal smelting emissions. Both natural and anthropogenic metals showed wide concentration ranges though exhibited similar temporal trends in the 15 cores. Spatial variations of anthropogenic metals were influenced by the in-watershed pollutants remobilization, whereas, natural metals were regulated by the detrital materials in the sub-basin. In-lake sediment focusing had little influence on the spatial distributions of all metals, different from the traditional sediment focusing pattern observed in small lakes. Anthropogenic Cd accumulation in sediments ranged from 1.5 to 10.1mgm -2 in a specific core with an average of 6.5mgm -2 for the entire lake, highlighting that a reliable whole-lake pollutant budget requires an analysis of multiple cores. Our study suggests that the management of aquatic ecosystem health should take the remobilization of in-watershed stored pollutants into consideration especially under increasing human perturbation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal Analysis for New York State SPARCS Data

PubMed Central

Chen, Xin; Wang, Yu; Schoenfeld, Elinor; Saltz, Mary; Saltz, Joel; Wang, Fusheng

2017-01-01

Increased accessibility of health data provides unique opportunities to discover spatio-temporal patterns of diseases. For example, New York State SPARCS (Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System) data collects patient level detail on patient demographics, diagnoses, services, and charges for each hospital inpatient stay and outpatient visit. Such data also provides home addresses for each patient. This paper presents our preliminary work on spatial, temporal, and spatial-temporal analysis of disease patterns for New York State using SPARCS data. We analyzed spatial distribution patterns of typical diseases at ZIP code level. We performed temporal analysis of common diseases based on 12 years’ historical data. We then compared the spatial variations for diseases with different levels of clustering tendency, and studied the evolution history of such spatial patterns. Case studies based on asthma demonstrated that the discovered spatial clusters are consistent with prior studies. We visualized our spatial-temporal patterns as animations through videos. PMID:28815148

Environmental Impact Analysis Process, Groom Mountain Range, Lincoln County, Nevada

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-10-01

bases clustered around springs, temporary camps, rock shelters , quarries, lithic scatters, rock art, pinyon caches, pot drops, isolates, and historic...include pinyon caches and rock shelters with associated historic artifacts and many of the spring sites. These sites provide an unusual research...Management. (b) Proposed Action: Renewed Withdrawal of Groom Mountain Range Addition to Nellis Air Force Bombing and Gunnery Range, Lincoln County, Nevada. (c

Urban History in 4 Dimensions - Supporting Research and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Münster, S.; Friedrichs, K.; Kröber, C.; Bruschke, J.; Henze, F.; Maiwald, F.; Niebling, F.

2017-08-01

The new research group on the four-dimensional research and communication of urban history (Urban History 4D) aims to investigate and develop methods and technologies to access extensive repositories of historical media and their contextual information in a spatial model, with an additional temporal component. This will make content accessible to different target groups, researchers and the public, via a 4D browser. A location-dependent augmented-reality representation can be used as an information base, research tool, and means of communicating historical knowledge. The data resources for this research include extensive holdings of historical photographs of Dresden, which have documented the city over the decades, and digitized map collections from the Deutsche Fotothek (German photographic collection) platform. These will lay the foundation for a prototype model which will give users a virtual experience of historic parts of Dresden.

What Can We Learn From Historical Trends and Distributions of Malaria? Historical Case Studies From the US, Italy, and Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.

2008-12-01

Malaria is currently prevalent in many countries and has been for centuries. Primary controllers of the distribution and incidence of malaria in the past have been economic, social, military, political etc. with a modest contribution from local climate variations. Studies of potential impacts of climate change on the epidemiology of diseases such as malaria have focused on the impact of changing environmental conditions on vector physiology but little attention has been paid to factors that explain historical variations in spatial and temporal distributions of the disease. This talk reports results of three historical case studies from the US, Italy and Sri Lanka that bring together a breadth of information from varied sources in order to illustrate the value of including such information in studies of disease-climate connections.

Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.

2015-12-01

Renewal processes, point prccesses in which intervals between consecutive events are independently and identically distributed, are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism and forecast the next earthquakes. However, one of the difficulties in applying recurrent earthquake models is the scarcity of the historical data. Most studied fault segments have few, or only one observed earthquake that often have poorly constrained historic and/or radiocarbon ages. The maximum likelihood estimate from such a small data set can have a large bias and error, which tends to yield high probability for the next event in a very short time span when the recurrence intervals have similar lengths. On the other hand, recurrence intervals at a fault depend on the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion in average. In addition, recurrence times are also fluctuated by nearby earthquakes or fault activities which encourage or discourage surrounding seismicity. These factors have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus, this paper introduces a spatial structure on the key parameters of renewal processes for recurrent earthquakes and estimates it by using spatial statistics. Spatial variation of mean and variance parameters of recurrence times are estimated in Bayesian framework and the next earthquakes are forecasted by Bayesian predictive distributions. The proposal model is applied for recurrent earthquake catalog in Japan and its result is compared with the current forecast adopted by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan.

Spatial synchrony of malaria outbreaks in a highland region of Ethiopia.

PubMed

Wimberly, Michael C; Midekisa, Alemayehu; Semuniguse, Paulos; Teka, Hiwot; Henebry, Geoffrey M; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Senay, Gabriel B

2012-10-01

To understand the drivers and consequences of malaria in epidemic-prone regions, it is important to know whether epidemics emerge independently in different areas as a consequence of local contingencies, or whether they are synchronised across larger regions as a result of climatic fluctuations and other broad-scale drivers. To address this question, we collected historical malaria surveillance data for the Amhara region of Ethiopia and analysed them to assess the consistency of various indicators of malaria risk and determine the dominant spatial and temporal patterns of malaria within the region. We collected data from a total of 49 districts from 1999-2010. Data availability was better for more recent years and more data were available for clinically diagnosed outpatient malaria cases than confirmed malaria cases. Temporal patterns of outpatient malaria case counts were correlated with the proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria and confirmed malaria case counts. The proportion of outpatients diagnosed with malaria was spatially clustered, and these cluster locations were generally consistent from year to year. Outpatient malaria cases exhibited spatial synchrony at distances up to 300 km, supporting the hypothesis that regional climatic variability is an important driver of epidemics. Our results suggest that decomposing malaria risk into separate spatial and temporal components may be an effective strategy for modelling and forecasting malaria risk across large areas. They also emphasise both the value and limitations of working with historical surveillance datasets and highlight the importance of enhancing existing surveillance efforts. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture.

PubMed

Hawkes, Christine V; Waring, Bonnie G; Rocca, Jennifer D; Kivlin, Stephanie N

2017-06-13

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40-70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration-moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall.

Constraining Modern and Historic Mercury Emissions From Gold Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, S. A.; Jaeglé, L.; Selin, N. E.; Sunderland, E.

2007-12-01

Mercury emissions from both historic gold and silver mining and modern small-scale gold mining are highly uncertain. Historic mercury emissions can affect the modern atmosphere through reemission from land and ocean, and quantifying mercury emissions from historic gold and silver mining can help constrain modern mining sources. While estimates of mercury emissions during historic gold rushes exceed modern anthropogenic mercury emissions in North America, sediment records in many regions do not show a strong gold rush signal. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to determine the spatial footprint of mercury emissions from mining and compare model runs from gold rush periods to sediment and ice core records of historic mercury deposition. Based on records of gold and silver production, we include mercury emissions from North and South American mining of 1900 Mg/year in 1880, compared to modern global anthropogenic emissions of 3400 Mg/year. Including this large mining source in GEOS-Chem leads to an overestimate of the modeled 1880 to preindustrial enhancement ratio compared to the sediment core record. We conduct sensitivity studies to constrain the level of mercury emissions from modern and historic mining that is consistent with the deposition records for different regions.

Recording, monitoring and managing the conservation of historic sites: a new application for BGS·SIGMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tracey, Emily; Smith, Nichola; Lawrie, Ken

2017-04-01

The principles behind, and the methods of, digital data capture can be applied across many scientific, and other, disciplines, as can be demonstrated by the use of a custom modified version of the British Geological Survey's System for Integrated Geoscience Mapping, (BGS·SIGMA), for the capture of data for use in the conservation of Scottish built heritage. Historic Environment Scotland (HES), an executive agency of the Scottish Government charged with safeguarding the nation's historic environment, is directly responsible for 345 sites of national significance, most of which are built from stone. In common with many other heritage organisations, HES needs a system that can capture, store and present conservation, maintenance and condition indicator information for single or multiple historic sites; this system would then be used to better target and plan effective programmes of maintenance and repair. To meet this need, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has worked with HES to develop an integrated digital site assessment system that provides a refined survey process for stone-built (and other) historic sites. Based on BGS·SIGMA—an integrated workflow underpinned by a geo-spatial platform for data capture and interpretation—the new system is built on top of ESRI's ArcGIS software, and underpinned by a relational database. Users can, in the field or in the office, populate custom-built data entry forms to record maintenance issues and repair specifications for architectural elements ranging from individual blocks of stone to entire building elevations. Photographs, sketches, and digital documents can be linked to architectural elements to enhance the usability of the data. Predetermined data fields and supporting dictionaries constrain the input parameters, ensuring a high degree of standardisation in the datasets and, therefore, enabling highly consistent data extraction and querying. The GIS presentation of the data provides a powerful and versatile planning tool for scheduling works, specifying materials, identifying the skills needed for repairs, and allocating resources more effectively and efficiently. Physical alterations and changes in the overall condition of a single site, or a group of sites can be monitored accurately over time by repeating the original survey (e.g. every 5 years). Other datasets can be linked to the database and other geospatially referenced datasets can be superimposed in GIS, adding considerably to the scope and utility of the system. The system can be applied to any geospatially referenced object in a wide range of situations thus providing many potential applications in conservation, archaeology and other related fields.

Biophysical processes supporting the diversity of microbial life in soil

PubMed Central

Tecon, Robin

2017-01-01

Abstract Soil, the living terrestrial skin of the Earth, plays a central role in supporting life and is home to an unimaginable diversity of microorganisms. This review explores key drivers for microbial life in soils under different climates and land-use practices at scales ranging from soil pores to landscapes. We delineate special features of soil as a microbial habitat (focusing on bacteria) and the consequences for microbial communities. This review covers recent modeling advances that link soil physical processes with microbial life (termed biophysical processes). Readers are introduced to concepts governing water organization in soil pores and associated transport properties and microbial dispersion ranges often determined by the spatial organization of a highly dynamic soil aqueous phase. The narrow hydrological windows of wetting and aqueous phase connectedness are crucial for resource distribution and longer range transport of microorganisms. Feedbacks between microbial activity and their immediate environment are responsible for emergence and stabilization of soil structure—the scaffolding for soil ecological functioning. We synthesize insights from historical and contemporary studies to provide an outlook for the challenges and opportunities for developing a quantitative ecological framework to delineate and predict the microbial component of soil functioning. PMID:28961933

Mercury concentrations in fish from a Sierra Nevada foothill reservoir located downstream from historic gold-mining operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saiki, Michael K.; Martin, Barbara A.; May, Thomas W.; Alpers, Charles N.

2010-01-01

This study examined mercury concentrations in whole fish from Camp Far West Reservoir, an 830-ha reservoir in northern California, USA, located downstream from lands mined for gold during and following the Gold Rush of 1848–1864. Total mercury (reported as dry weight concentrations) was highest in spotted bass (mean, 0.93 μg/g; range, 0.16–4.41 μg/g) and lower in bluegill (mean, 0.45 μg/g; range, 0.22–1.96 μg/g) and threadfin shad (0.44 μg/g; range, 0.21–1.34 μg/g). Spatial patterns for mercury in fish indicated high concentrations upstream in the Bear River arm and generally lower concentrations elsewhere, including downstream near the dam. These findings coincided with patterns exhibited by methylmercury in water and sediment, and suggested that mercury-laden inflows from the Bear River were largely responsible for contaminating the reservoir ecosystem. Maximum concentrations of mercury in all three fish species, but especially bass, were high enough to warrant concern about toxic effects in fish and consumers of fish.

Impact of Infrared Lunar Laser Ranging on Lunar Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanathan, Vishnu; Fienga, Agnès; Manche, Hervé; Gastineau, Mickael; Courde, Clément; Torre, Jean-Marie; Exertier, Pierre; Laskar, Jacques; LLR Observers : Astrogeo-OCA, Apache Point, McDonald Laser Ranging Station, Haleakala Observatory, Matera Laser Ranging Observatory

2016-10-01

Since 2015, in addition to the traditional green (532nm), infrared (1064nm) has been the preferred wavelength for lunar laser ranging at the Calern lunar laser ranging (LLR) site in France. Due to the better atmospheric transmission of IR with respect to Green, nearly 3 times the number of normal points have been obtained in IR than in Green [ C.Courde et al 2016 ]. In our study, in addition to the historical data obtained from various other LLR sites, we include the recent IR normal points obtained from Calern over the 1 year time span (2015-2016), constituting about 4.2% of data spread over 46 years of LLR. Near even distribution of data provided by IR on both the spatial and temporal domain, helps us to improve constraints on the internal structure of the Moon modeled within the planetary ephemeris : INPOP [ Fienga et al 2015 ]. IERS recommended models have been used in the data reduction software GINS (GRGS,CNES) [ V.Viswanathan et al 2015 ]. Constraints provided by GRAIL, on the Lunar gravitational potential and Love numbers have been taken into account in the least-square fit procedure. New estimates on the dynamical parameters of the lunar core will be presented.

Large Scale Environmental Monitoring through Integration of Sensor and Mesh Networks

PubMed Central

Jurdak, Raja; Nafaa, Abdelhamid; Barbirato, Alessio

2008-01-01

Monitoring outdoor environments through networks of wireless sensors has received interest for collecting physical and chemical samples at high spatial and temporal scales. A central challenge to environmental monitoring applications of sensor networks is the short communication range of the sensor nodes, which increases the complexity and cost of monitoring commodities that are located in geographically spread areas. To address this issue, we propose a new communication architecture that integrates sensor networks with medium range wireless mesh networks, and provides users with an advanced web portal for managing sensed information in an integrated manner. Our architecture adopts a holistic approach targeted at improving the user experience by optimizing the system performance for handling data that originates at the sensors, traverses the mesh network, and resides at the server for user consumption. This holistic approach enables users to set high level policies that can adapt the resolution of information collected at the sensors, set the preferred performance targets for their application, and run a wide range of queries and analysis on both real-time and historical data. All system components and processes will be described in this paper. PMID:27873941

Study and application of new Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiushi; Zhang, Xiaohua

2016-03-01

Spatially Offset Raman Spectroscopy (SORS) is a new type of Raman Spectroscopy technology, which can detect the medium concealed in the opaque or sub-transparent material fast and nondestructively. The article summarized Spatially Offset Raman Spectroscopy`s international and domestic study and application progress on contraband detecting, medical science (bone ingredient, cancer diagnose etc.), agricultural products, historical relic identification etc. and stated the technology would become an effective measurement which had wide application prospect.

Temporal and spatial variations of the Chesapeake Bay plume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruzecki, E. P.

1981-01-01

Historical records and data obtained during the Superflux experiments are used to describe the temporal and spatial variations of the effluent waters of Chesapeake Bay. The alongshore extent of the plume resulting from variations of freshwater discharge into the Bay and the effects of wind are illustrated. Variations of the cross sectional configuration of the plume over portions of a tidal cycle and results of a rapid underway water sampling system are discussed.

Spatial-temporal dynamics of NDVI and Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2009 in the East coastal zone of China: integrating terrestrial and oceanic components.

PubMed

Hou, Xiyong; Li, Mingjie; Gao, Meng; Yu, Liangju; Bi, Xiaoli

2013-01-01

Annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration are the most important large-scale indicators of terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem net primary productivity. In this paper, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor level 3 standard mapped image annual products from 1998 to 2009 are used to study the spatial-temporal characters of terrestrial NDVI and oceanic Chl-a concentration on two sides of the coastline of China by using the methods of mean value (M), coefficient of variation (CV), the slope of unary linear regression model (Slope), and the Hurst index (H). In detail, we researched and analyzed the spatial-temporal dynamics, the longitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality, the direction, intensity, and persistency of historical changes. The results showed that: (1) spatial patterns of M and CV between NDVI and Chl-a concentration from 1998 to 2009 were very different. The dynamic variation of terrestrial NDVI was much mild, while the variation of oceanic Chl-a concentration was relatively much larger; (2) distinct longitudinal zonality was found for Chl-a concentration and NDVI due to their hypersensitivity to the distance to shoreline, and strong latitudinal zonality existed for Chl-a concentration while terrestrial NDVI had a very weak latitudinal zonality; (3) overall, the NDVI showed a slight decreasing trend while the Chl-a concentration showed a significant increasing trend in the past 12 years, and both of them exhibit strong self-similarity and long-range dependence which indicates opposite future trends between land and ocean.

Regional Climate Sensitivity- and Historical-Based Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphaël.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2018-05-01

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

WILDFIRE EMISSION MODELING: INTEGRATING BLUESKY AND SMOKE

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric chemical transport models are used to simulate historic meteorological episodes for developing air quality management strategies. Wildland fire emissions need to be characterized accurately to achieve these air quality management goals. The temporal and spatial esti...

Mistaking geography for biology: inferring processes from species distributions.

PubMed

Warren, Dan L; Cardillo, Marcel; Rosauer, Dan F; Bolnick, Daniel I

2014-10-01

Over the past few decades, there has been a rapid proliferation of statistical methods that infer evolutionary and ecological processes from data on species distributions. These methods have led to considerable new insights, but they often fail to account for the effects of historical biogeography on present-day species distributions. Because the geography of speciation can lead to patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the distributions of species within a clade, this can result in misleading inferences about the importance of deterministic processes in generating spatial patterns of biodiversity. In this opinion article, we discuss ways in which patterns of species distributions driven by historical biogeography are often interpreted as evidence of particular evolutionary or ecological processes. We focus on three areas that are especially prone to such misinterpretations: community phylogenetics, environmental niche modelling, and analyses of beta diversity (compositional turnover of biodiversity). Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Topological data analysis of contagion maps for examining spreading processes on networks.

PubMed

Taylor, Dane; Klimm, Florian; Harrington, Heather A; Kramár, Miroslav; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Porter, Mason A; Mucha, Peter J

2015-07-21

Social and biological contagions are influenced by the spatial embeddedness of networks. Historically, many epidemics spread as a wave across part of the Earth's surface; however, in modern contagions long-range edges-for example, due to airline transportation or communication media-allow clusters of a contagion to appear in distant locations. Here we study the spread of contagions on networks through a methodology grounded in topological data analysis and nonlinear dimension reduction. We construct 'contagion maps' that use multiple contagions on a network to map the nodes as a point cloud. By analysing the topology, geometry and dimensionality of manifold structure in such point clouds, we reveal insights to aid in the modelling, forecast and control of spreading processes. Our approach highlights contagion maps also as a viable tool for inferring low-dimensional structure in networks.

Topological data analysis of contagion maps for examining spreading processes on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Dane; Klimm, Florian; Harrington, Heather A.; Kramár, Miroslav; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Porter, Mason A.; Mucha, Peter J.

2015-07-01

Social and biological contagions are influenced by the spatial embeddedness of networks. Historically, many epidemics spread as a wave across part of the Earth's surface; however, in modern contagions long-range edges--for example, due to airline transportation or communication media--allow clusters of a contagion to appear in distant locations. Here we study the spread of contagions on networks through a methodology grounded in topological data analysis and nonlinear dimension reduction. We construct `contagion maps' that use multiple contagions on a network to map the nodes as a point cloud. By analysing the topology, geometry and dimensionality of manifold structure in such point clouds, we reveal insights to aid in the modelling, forecast and control of spreading processes. Our approach highlights contagion maps also as a viable tool for inferring low-dimensional structure in networks.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goodwell, Allison E.; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A.; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H.; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Holmes, Robert R.; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P.; Jacobson, Robert B.

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011.

PubMed

Goodwell, Allison E; Zhu, Zhenduo; Dutta, Debsunder; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Kumar, Praveen; Garcia, Marcelo H; Rhoads, Bruce L; Holmes, Robert R; Parker, Gary; Berretta, David P; Jacobson, Robert B

2014-01-01

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km(2) agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Temporal and Spatial Acoustical Factors for Listeners in the Boxes of Historical Opera Theatres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakai, H.; Ando, Y.; Prodi, N.; Pompoli, R.

2002-11-01

Acoustical measurements were conducted in a horseshoe-shaped opera house to clarify the acoustical quality of a sound field for listeners inside the boxes of an historical opera house. In order to investigate the effects of multiple reflections between the walls inside a box and scattering by the heads of people, the location of the receiver and the number of persons in the box were varied. In each configuration, four orthogonal factors and supplementary factors were derived as temporal and spatial factors by analysis of binaural impulse responses. Each factor is compared to that at a typical location in the stalls of the same theatre. An omni-directional sound source was located on the stage to emulate a singer or in the orchestra pit to reproduce the location of the musicians. Thus, in this paper, temporal and spatial factors in relation to subjective evaluation are characterized against changes in the listening conditions inside a box, and procedures for improvement and design methods for boxes are proposed. The main conclusions reached are as follows. As strong reflections from the lateral walls of a hall are screened by the front or side walls of a box for a receiver in a seat deeper in the box, the maximum listening level ( LL) in the boxes was observed at the front of the box, and the maximum range of LL values for each box was found to be 5 dB. Concerning the initial time delay gap ( Δt1), a more uniform listening environment was obtained in boxes further back in the theatre than in one closer to the stage. The subsequent reverberation time ( Tsub) lengthens for boxes closer to the stage due to the stage house with its huge volume, and a peak is observed at 1 kHz. For the box at the back, Tsub monotonically decreases with frequency in the same way as in the stalls, and moreover, its values approach those in the stalls. As the contribution of multiple reflections relatively increases for a receiver deeper in the box, the IACC in such positions decreases in comparison with that seen at the front of the box.

Optical spatial solitons: historical overview and recent advances.

PubMed

Chen, Zhigang; Segev, Mordechai; Christodoulides, Demetrios N

2012-08-01

Solitons, nonlinear self-trapped wavepackets, have been extensively studied in many and diverse branches of physics such as optics, plasmas, condensed matter physics, fluid mechanics, particle physics and even astrophysics. Interestingly, over the past two decades, the field of solitons and related nonlinear phenomena has been substantially advanced and enriched by research and discoveries in nonlinear optics. While optical solitons have been vigorously investigated in both spatial and temporal domains, it is now fair to say that much soliton research has been mainly driven by the work on optical spatial solitons. This is partly due to the fact that although temporal solitons as realized in fiber optic systems are fundamentally one-dimensional entities, the high dimensionality associated with their spatial counterparts has opened up altogether new scientific possibilities in soliton research. Another reason is related to the response time of the nonlinearity. Unlike temporal optical solitons, spatial solitons have been realized by employing a variety of noninstantaneous nonlinearities, ranging from the nonlinearities in photorefractive materials and liquid crystals to the nonlinearities mediated by the thermal effect, thermophoresis and the gradient force in colloidal suspensions. Such a diversity of nonlinear effects has given rise to numerous soliton phenomena that could otherwise not be envisioned, because for decades scientists were of the mindset that solitons must strictly be the exact solutions of the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger equation as established for ideal Kerr nonlinear media. As such, the discoveries of optical spatial solitons in different systems and associated new phenomena have stimulated broad interest in soliton research. In particular, the study of incoherent solitons and discrete spatial solitons in optical periodic media not only led to advances in our understanding of fundamental processes in nonlinear optics and photonics, but also had a very important impact on a variety of other disciplines in nonlinear science. In this paper, we provide a brief overview of optical spatial solitons. This review will cover a variety of issues pertaining to self-trapped waves supported by different types of nonlinearities, as well as various families of spatial solitons such as optical lattice solitons and surface solitons. Recent developments in the area of optical spatial solitons, such as 3D light bullets, subwavelength solitons, self-trapping in soft condensed matter and spatial solitons in systems with parity-time symmetry will also be discussed briefly.

The NASA Regional Planetary Image Facility (RPIF) Network: A Key Resource for Accessing and Using Planetary Spatial Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagerty, J. J.

2017-12-01

The role of the NASA Regional Planetary Image Facility (RPIF) Network is evolving as new science-ready spatial data products continue to be created and as key historical planetary data sets are digitized. Specifically, the RPIF Network is poised to serve specialized knowledge and services in a user-friendly manner that removes most barriers to locating, accessing, and exploiting planetary spatial data, thus providing a critical data access role within a spatial data infrastructure. The goal of the Network is to provide support and training to a broad audience of planetary spatial data users. In an effort to meet the planetary science community's evolving needs, we are focusing on the following objectives: Maintain and improve the delivery of historical data accumulated over the past four decades so as not to lose critical, historical information. This is being achieved by systematically digitizing fragile materials, allowing increased access and preserving them at the same time. Help users locate, access, visualize, and exploit planetary science data. Many of the facilities have begun to establish Guest User Facilities that allow researchers to use and/or be trained on GIS equipment and other specialized tools like Socet Set/GXP photogrammetry workstations for generating digital elevation maps. Improve the connection between the Network nodes while also leveraging the unique resources of each node. To achieve this goal, each facility is developing and sharing searchable databases of their collections, including robust metadata in a standards compliant way. Communicate more effectively and regularly with the planetary science community in an effort to make potential users aware of resources and services provided by the Network, while also engaging community members in discussions about community needs. Provide a regional resource for the science community, colleges, universities, museums, media, and the public to access planetary data. Introduce new strategies for visualizing planetary data and products (e.g., 3D printing and virtual reality platforms/experiences). We anticipate that in a few years virtual reality tools will be an integral part of data analysis, providing more intuitive understanding of multiple complex data sets.

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

2017-11-01

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought, 1895-1903; World War II Drought, 1939-1945; and the Millennium Drought, 1997-2005), we find that the historically documented Settlement Drought (1790-1793), Sturt's Drought (1809-1830) and the Goyder Line Drought (1861-1866) actually had more regionalised patterns and reduced spatial extents. This seasonal rainfall reconstruction provides a new opportunity to understand Australian rainfall variability by contextualising severe droughts and recent trends in Australia.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

PubMed Central

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data. PMID:27275583

From Shelf to Shelf: Assessing Historical and Contemporary Genetic Differentiation and Connectivity across the Gulf of Mexico in Gag, Mycteroperca microlepis

PubMed Central

Jue, Nathaniel K.; Brulé, Thierry; Coleman, Felicia C.; Koenig, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Describing patterns of connectivity among populations of species with widespread distributions is particularly important in understanding the ecology and evolution of marine species. In this study, we examined patterns of population differentiation, migration, and historical population dynamics using microsatellite and mitochondrial loci to test whether populations of the epinephelid fish, Gag, Mycteroperca microlepis, an important fishery species, are genetically connected across the Gulf of Mexico and if so, whether that connectivity is attributable to either contemporary or historical processes. Populations of Gag on the Campeche Bank and the West Florida Shelf show significant, but low magnitude, differentiation. Time since divergence/expansion estimates associated with historical population dynamics indicate that any population or spatial expansions indicated by population genetics would have likely occurred in the late Pleistocene. Using coalescent-based approaches, we find that the best model for explaining observed spatial patterns of contemporary genetic variation is one of asymmetric gene flow, with movement from Campeche Bank to the West Florida Shelf. Both estimated migration rates and ecological data support the hypothesis that Gag populations throughout the Gulf of Mexico are connected via present day larval dispersal. Demonstrating this greatly expanded scale of connectivity for Gag highlights the influence of “ghost” populations (sensu Beerli) on genetic patterns and presents a critical consideration for both fisheries management and conservation of this and other species with similar genetic patterns. PMID:25856095

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Developing a spatial-statistical model and map of historical malaria prevalence in Botswana using a staged variable selection procedure

PubMed Central

Craig, Marlies H; Sharp, Brian L; Mabaso, Musawenkosi LH; Kleinschmidt, Immo

2007-01-01

Background Several malaria risk maps have been developed in recent years, many from the prevalence of infection data collated by the MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) project, and using various environmental data sets as predictors. Variable selection is a major obstacle due to analytical problems caused by over-fitting, confounding and non-independence in the data. Testing and comparing every combination of explanatory variables in a Bayesian spatial framework remains unfeasible for most researchers. The aim of this study was to develop a malaria risk map using a systematic and practicable variable selection process for spatial analysis and mapping of historical malaria risk in Botswana. Results Of 50 potential explanatory variables from eight environmental data themes, 42 were significantly associated with malaria prevalence in univariate logistic regression and were ranked by the Akaike Information Criterion. Those correlated with higher-ranking relatives of the same environmental theme, were temporarily excluded. The remaining 14 candidates were ranked by selection frequency after running automated step-wise selection procedures on 1000 bootstrap samples drawn from the data. A non-spatial multiple-variable model was developed through step-wise inclusion in order of selection frequency. Previously excluded variables were then re-evaluated for inclusion, using further step-wise bootstrap procedures, resulting in the exclusion of another variable. Finally a Bayesian geo-statistical model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation was fitted to the data, resulting in a final model of three predictor variables, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. Each was independently and significantly associated with malaria prevalence after allowing for spatial correlation. This model was used to predict malaria prevalence at unobserved locations, producing a smooth risk map for the whole country. Conclusion We have produced a highly plausible and parsimonious model of historical malaria risk for Botswana from point-referenced data from a 1961/2 prevalence survey of malaria infection in 1–14 year old children. After starting with a list of 50 potential variables we ended with three highly plausible predictors, by applying a systematic and repeatable staged variable selection procedure that included a spatial analysis, which has application for other environmentally determined infectious diseases. All this was accomplished using general-purpose statistical software. PMID:17892584

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monahan, William B.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Gerst, Katharine L.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Gross, John E.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2016-01-01

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

Change of spatial information under rescaling: A case study using multi-resolution image series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Weirong; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

Spatial structure in imagery depends on a complicated interaction between the observational regime and the types and arrangements of entities within the scene that the image portrays. Although block averaging of pixels has commonly been used to simulate coarser resolution imagery, relatively little attention has been focused on the effects of simple rescaling on spatial structure and the explanation and a possible solution to the problem. Yet, if there are significant differences in spatial variance between rescaled and observed images, it may affect the reliability of retrieved biogeophysical quantities. To investigate these issues, a nested series of high spatial resolution digital imagery was collected at a research site in eastern Nebraska in 2001. An airborne Kodak DCS420IR camera acquired imagery at three altitudes, yielding nominal spatial resolutions ranging from 0.187 m to 1 m. The red and near infrared (NIR) bands of the co-registered image series were normalized using pseudo-invariant features, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was calculated. Plots of grain sorghum planted in orthogonal crop row orientations were extracted from the image series. The finest spatial resolution data were then rescaled by averaging blocks of pixels to produce a rescaled image series that closely matched the spatial resolution of the observed image series. Spatial structures of the observed and rescaled image series were characterized using semivariogram analysis. Results for NDVI and its component bands show, as expected, that decreasing spatial resolution leads to decreasing spatial variability and increasing spatial dependence. However, compared to the observed data, the rescaled images contain more persistent spatial structure that exhibits limited variation in both spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Rescaling via simple block averaging fails to consider the effect of scene object shape and extent on spatial information. As the features portrayed by pixels are equally weighted regardless of the shape and extent of the underlying scene objects, the rescaled image retains more of the original spatial information than would occur through direct observation at a coarser sensor spatial resolution. In contrast, for the observed images, due to the effect of the modulation transfer function (MTF) of the imaging system, high frequency features like edges are blurred or lost as the pixel size increases, resulting in greater variation in spatial structure. Successive applications of a low-pass spatial convolution filter are shown to mimic a MTF. Accordingly, it is recommended that such a procedure be applied prior to rescaling by simple block averaging, if insufficient image metadata exist to replicate the net MTF of the imaging system, as might be expected in land cover change analysis studies using historical imagery.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling communities.

Spatial effects on hybrid electric vehicle adoption

DOE PAGES

Liu, Xiaoli; Roberts, Matthew C.; Sioshansi, Ramteen

2017-03-08

This paper examines spatial effects on hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) adoption. This is in contrast to most existing analyses, which concentrate on analyzing socioeconomic factors and demographics. This paper uses a general spatial model to estimate the strength of ‘neighbor effects’ on HEV adoption—namely that each consumer’s HEV-adoption decision can be influenced by the HEV-adoption decisions of geographic neighbors. We use detailed census tract-level demographic data from the 2010 United States Census and the 2012 American Community Survey and vehicle registration data collected by the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles. We find that HEV adoption exhibits significant spatial effects. We furthermore » conduct a time-series analysis and show that historical HEV adoption has a spatial effect on future adoption. Lastly, these results suggest that HEVs may appear in more dense clusters than models that do not consider spatial effects predict.« less

Mercury and methylmercury related to historical mercury mining in three tributaries to Lake Berryessa, Putah Creek Watershed, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, G. C.; Horner, T.; Cornwell, K.; Izzo, V.; Alpers, C. N.

2014-12-01

This study examined the relative contribution of total mercury (THg) and mono-methylmercury (MMHg) from upstream historical mercury-mining districts to Lake Berryessa, a reservoir with impaired water quality because of mercury. The third and fourth largest historical mercury-producing mining districts in California are within Lake Berryessa's three largest tributary watersheds: Pope, (Upper) Putah, and Knoxville-Eticuera Creeks. Downstream of the reservoir, Putah Creek drains into the Yolo Bypass, a major source of THg and MMHg to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Water samples were collected from October 2012 to May 2014 during 37 non-storm and 8 storm events along Pope, (Upper) Putah, and Knoxville-Eticuera Creeks and analyzed for field parameters (temperature, pH, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity). Additionally, water samples collected during five of the non-storm and storm events were analyzed for unfiltered THg and MMHg and total suspended solids (TSS). Discharge was measured during sampling to calculate instantaneous loads. More than 120 streambed sediment samples were collected to determine the spatial variation of THg and organic carbon content (loss on ignition). Across the watersheds, unfiltered THg (in water) samples ranged from 2.3 to 125 ng/L and unfiltered MMHg (in water) samples from 0.12 to 1.0 ng/L. Concentrations of THg ranged from less than 0.0001 to 122 mg/kg in streambed sediment. Tributary reaches with elevated mercury concentrations ("hot spots") are near or downstream of historical mercury mines and have: (1) strong positive correlations between THg (in water) or MMHg (in water) and TSS (R2> 0.88, n=5); (2) higher instantaneous loads of suspended sediment, THg and MMHg than reaches with low THg and MMHg concentrations; and (3) elevated sediment organic carbon content. Tributary reaches with weaker correlations among THg, MMHg, and TSS in unfiltered water may reflect non-mining sources of dissolved THg and MMHg, such as geothermal springs and groundwater influx from shallow aquifers. The importance of suspended particulate matter relative to THg and MMHg transport in the most contaminated stream reaches indicates that erosion control is likely to be a critical factor in successful remediation efforts in the Upper Putah Creek watershed.

CLASSIFYING COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS: HISTORICAL PESPECTIVE AND CURRENT NECESSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Coastal environments are particularly complex due to variations in geology and upstream watersheds, and are subject to dynamic spatial and temporal changes. Their diverse characteristics result in wide variations in response to environmental stressors such as nutrient over-enrich...

U.S. Geological Survey shrub/grass products provide new approach to shrubland monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Steven M.

2017-12-11

In the Western United States, shrubland ecosystems provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational services. However, disturbances such as livestock grazing, exotic species invasion, conversion to agriculture, climate change, urban expansion, and energy development are altering these ecosystems.Improving our understanding of how shrublands are distributed, where they are changing, the extent of the historical change, and likely future change directions is critical for successful management of these ecosystems. Remote-sensing technologies provide the most likely data source for large-area monitoring of ecosystem disturbance—both near-real time and historically. A monitoring framework supported by remote-sensing data can offer efficient and accurate analysis of change across a range of spatial and temporal scales.The U.S. Geological Survey has been working to develop new remote-sensing data, tools, and products to characterize and monitor these changing shrubland landscapes. Nine individual map products (components) have been developed that quantify the percent of shrub, sagebrush, big sagebrush, herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, bare ground, shrub height, and sagebrush height at 1-percent intervals in each 30-meter grid cell. These component products are designed to be combined and customized to widely support different applications in rangeland monitoring, analysis of wildlife habitat, resource inventory, adaptive management, and environmental review.

Shifts in Climate Foster Exceptional Opportunities for Species Radiation: The Case of South African Geraniums

PubMed Central

Martínez-Cabrera, Hugo I.; Peres-Neto, Pedro R.

2013-01-01

Climate change is often assumed to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. However, it can also set the stage for novel diversification in lineages with the evolutionary ability to colonize new environments. Here we tested if the extraordinary evolutionary success of the genus Pelargonium was related to the ability of its species to capitalize on the climate niche variation produced by the historical changes in southern Africa. We evaluated the relationship between rates of climate niche evolution and diversification rates in the main Pelargonium lineages and disentangled the roles of deep and recent historical events in the modification of species niches. Pelargonium clades exhibiting higher ecological differentiation along summer precipitation (SPP) gradients also experienced higher diversification rates. Faster rates of niche differentiation in spatially structured variables, along with lower levels of niche overlap among closely related species, suggest recent modification in species niches (e.g. dispersal or range shift) and niche lability. We suggest that highly structured SPP gradients established during the aridification process within southern Africa, in concert with niche lability and low niche overlap, contributed to species divergence. These factors are likely to be responsible for the extensive diversification of other lineages in this diversity hot spot. PMID:24358250

Has climate change shifted US maize planting times?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Stine, A.; Huybers, P.

2012-12-01

Global warming has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring phenological events across a range of ecosystems. However, the degree to which humans have adapted planting schedules to a changing climate remains an open question; the leading hypotheses for earlier planting are improved hardiness of cultivars and farming equipment. Here we examine the relationship between historical temperature and precipitation from 549 weather stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) with planting schedules from 20 states in the United States Department of Agriculture/National Agriculture Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) database. We construct an empirical model to relate yearly weather conditions to predict planting dates and compare this to the spatial distribution of climate conditions and mean planting times. Evidence for a relationship between climate and planting schedules indicates that planting schedules for US maize have been adapted to yearly variations and overall changes in climatology. As one might expect, hotter temperatures lead to earlier plantings while greater precipitation leads to later planting. These findings serve to indicate extant adaptation between US farmers and climate change, and will aid in forecasting future shifts to planting schedules as climate continues to change. Furthermore, the statistical model should also be useful for estimating planting times for states and years for which records do not otherwise exist.

Applying ILAMB to data from several generations of the Community Land Model to assess the relative contribution of model improvements and forcing uncertainty to model-data agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, D. M.; Fisher, R.; Koven, C.; Oleson, K. W.; Swenson, S. C.; Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Collier, N.; Mu, M.

2017-12-01

The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project is a model-data intercomparison and integration project designed to assess and help improve land models. The current package includes assessment of more than 25 land variables across more than 60 global, regional, and site-level (e.g., FLUXNET) datasets. ILAMB employs a broad range of metrics including RMSE, mean error, spatial distributions, interannual variability, and functional relationships. Here, we apply ILAMB for the purpose of assessment of several generations of the Community Land Model (CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5). Encouragingly, CLM5, which is the result of model development over the last several years by more than 50 researchers from 15 different institutions, shows broad improvements across many ILAMB metrics including LAI, GPP, vegetation carbon stocks, and the historical net ecosystem carbon balance among others. We will also show that considerable uncertainty arises from the historical climate forcing data used (GSWP3v1 and CRUNCEPv7). ILAMB score variations due to forcing data can be as large for many variables as that due to model structural differences. Strengths and weaknesses and persistent biases across model generations will also be presented.

Earthquake Occurrence in Bangladesh and Surrounding Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hussaini, T. M.; Al-Noman, M.

2011-12-01

The collision of the northward moving Indian plate with the Eurasian plate is the cause of frequent earthquakes in the region comprising Bangladesh and neighbouring India, Nepal and Myanmar. Historical records indicate that Bangladesh has been affected by five major earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 (Richter scale) during 1869 to 1930. This paper presents some statistical observations of earthquake occurrence in fulfilment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment of this region. An up to date catalogue covering earthquake information in the region bounded within 17°-30°N and 84°-97°E for the period of historical period to 2010 is derived from various reputed international sources including ISC, IRIS, Indian sources and available publications. Careful scrutiny is done to remove duplicate or uncertain earthquake events. Earthquake magnitudes in the range of 1.8 to 8.1 have been obtained and relationships between different magnitude scales have been studied. Aftershocks are removed from the catalogue using magnitude dependent space window and time window. The main shock data are then analyzed to obtain completeness period for different magnitudes evaluating their temporal homogeneity. Spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, magnitude-depth histograms and other statistical analysis are performed to understand the distribution of seismic activity in this region.

Pluviometric characterization of the Coca river basin by using a stochastic rainfall model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Zeas, Dunia; Chávez-Jiménez, Adriadna; Coello-Rubio, Xavier; Correa, Ángel; Martínez-Codina, Ángela

2014-05-01

An adequate design of the hydraulic infrastructures, as well as, the prediction and simulation of a river basin require historical records with a greater temporal and spatial resolution. However, the lack of an extensive network of precipitation data, the short time scale data and the incomplete information provided by the available rainfall stations limit the analysis and design of complex hydraulic engineering systems. As a consequence, it is necessary to develop new quantitative tools in order to face this obstacle imposed by ungauged or poorly gauged basins. In this context, the use of a spatial-temporal rainfall model allows to simulate the historical behavior of the precipitation and at the same time, to obtain long-term synthetic series that preserve the extremal behavior. This paper provides a characterization of the precipitation in the Coca river basin located in Ecuador by using RainSim V3, a robust and well tested stochastic rainfall model based on a spatial-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses process. A preliminary consistency analysis of the historical rainfall data available has been done in order to identify climatic regions with similar precipitation behavior patterns. Mean and maximum yearly and monthly fields of precipitation of high resolution spaced grids have been obtained through the use of interpolation techniques. According to the climatological similarity, long time series of daily temporal resolution of precipitation have been generated in order to evaluate the model skill in capturing the structure of daily observed precipitation. The results show a good performance of the model in reproducing very well the gross statistics, including the extreme values of rainfall at daily scale. The spatial pattern represented by the observed and simulated precipitation fields highlights the existence of two important regions characterized by different pluviometric comportment, with lower precipitation in the upper part of the basin and higher precipitation in the lower part of the basin.

Integration of Landscape Ecosystem Classification and Historic Land Records in the Francis Marion National Forest

Treesearch

Peter U. Kennedy; Victor B. Shelburne

2002-01-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data and historical plats ranging from 1716 to 1894 in the Coastal Flatwoods Region of South Carolina were used to quantify changes on a temporal scale. Combining the historic plats and associated witness trees (trees marking the boundaries of historic plats) with an existing database of the soils and other attributes was the basis...

Spatial Analysis of Urban Form and Pedestrian Exposure to Traffic Noise

PubMed Central

Sheng, Ni; Tang, U. Wa

2011-01-01

In the Macao Peninsula, the high population density (49,763 inhabitants/km2) and the lack of control over the number of vehicles (460 vehicles/km) have led to an increase in urban pollution. To provide useful information to local government and urban planners, this paper investigates the spatial distribution of traffic noise in the Macao Peninsula. The interactions among urban form, traffic flow and traffic noise are addressed. Considering the spatial nature of urban geometry and traffic, a high-resolution GIS-based traffic noise model system is applied. Results indicate that the Macao Peninsula has fallen into a situation of serious traffic noise pollution. About 60% of traffic noise levels along the major pedestrian sidewalks in the evening peak hour exceed the National Standard of 70 dB(A) in China. In particular, about 21% of traffic noise levels along the pedestrian sidewalks are above the National Standard by 5 dB(A). Noticeably, the high pedestrian exposure to traffic noise in the historical urban area reduces the comfort of tourists walking in the historic centre and is ruining the reputation of the area as a World Cultural Heritage site. PMID:21776213

Spatial analysis of urban form and pedestrian exposure to traffic noise.

PubMed

Sheng, Ni; Tang, U Wa

2011-06-01

In the Macao Peninsula, the high population density (49,763 inhabitants/km2) and the lack of control over the number of vehicles (460 vehicles/km) have led to an increase in urban pollution. To provide useful information to local government and urban planners, this paper investigates the spatial distribution of traffic noise in the Macao Peninsula. The interactions among urban form, traffic flow and traffic noise are addressed. Considering the spatial nature of urban geometry and traffic, a high-resolution GIS-based traffic noise model system is applied. Results indicate that the Macao Peninsula has fallen into a situation of serious traffic noise pollution. About 60% of traffic noise levels along the major pedestrian sidewalks in the evening peak hour exceed the National Standard of 70 dB(A) in China. In particular, about 21% of traffic noise levels along the pedestrian sidewalks are above the National Standard by 5 dB(A). Noticeably, the high pedestrian exposure to traffic noise in the historical urban area reduces the comfort of tourists walking in the historic centre and is ruining the reputation of the area as a World Cultural Heritage site.

A mapping and monitoring assessment of the Philippines' mangrove forests from 1990 to 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Jordan; Napton, Darrell; Giri, Chandra; Graesser, Jordan

2014-01-01

Information on the present condition and spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove forests is needed for land-change studies and integrated natural resources planning and management. Although several national mangrove estimates for the Philippines exist, information is unavailable at sufficient spatial and thematic detail for change analysis. Historical and contemporary mangrove distribution maps of the Philippines for 1990 and 2010 were prepared at nominal 30-m spatial resolution using Landsat satellite data. Image classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classification approach. Additionally, decadal land-cover change maps from 1990 to 2010 were prepared to depict changes in mangrove area. Total mangrove area decreased 10.5% from 1990 to 2010. Comparison of estimates produced from this study with selected historical mangrove area estimates revealed that total mangrove area decreased by approximately half (51.8%) from 1918 to 2010. This study provides the most current and reliable data regarding the Philippines mangrove area and spatial distribution and delineates where and when mangrove change has occurred in recent decades. The results from this study are useful for developing conservation strategies, biodiversity loss mitigation efforts, and future monitoring and analysis.

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Markstrom, Steven

2014-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks.The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output.Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

The use of historical imagery in the remediation of an urban hazardous waste site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.

2011-01-01

The information derived from the interpretation of historical aerial photographs is perhaps the most basic multitemporal application of remote-sensing data. Aerial photographs dating back to the early 20th century can be extremely valuable sources of historical landscape activity. In this application, imagery from 1918 to 1927 provided a wealth of information about chemical weapons testing, storage, handling, and disposal of these hazardous materials. When analyzed by a trained photo-analyst, the 1918 aerial photographs resulted in 42 features of potential interest. When compared with current remedial activities and known areas of contamination, 33 of 42 or 78.5% of the features were spatially correlated with areas of known contamination or other remedial hazardous waste cleanup activity. ?? 2010 IEEE.

The use of historical imagery in the remediation of an urban hazardous waste site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E.T.

2011-01-01

The information derived from the interpretation of historical aerial photographs is perhaps the most basic multitemporal application of remote-sensing data. Aerial photographs dating back to the early 20th century can be extremely valuable sources of historical landscape activity. In this application, imagery from 1918 to 1927 provided a wealth of information about chemical weapons testing, storage, handling, and disposal of these hazardous materials. When analyzed by a trained photo-analyst, the 1918 aerial photographs resulted in 42 features of potential interest. When compared with current remedial activities and known areas of contamination, 33 of 42 or 78.5% of the features were spatially correlated with areas of known contamination or other remedial hazardous waste cleanup activity.

Developing a historical climatology of Wales from Welsh and English language sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.; Davies, S. J.; Jones, C. A.; Charnell-White, C.

2009-04-01

Historical documentary records are recognised as valuable in understanding long term climate variability. In the UK, the Central England Temperature Series (1772- ) and the Lamb weather catalogue (1861- ) provide a detailed climate record for England, but the value of these archives in Wales and Scotland is more limited, though some long term instrumental series exist, particularly for cities such as Cardiff. The spatial distance from the central England area and a lower density of instrumental stations in Wales has limited understanding of climate variability during the instrumental period (~1750- ). This paper illustrates that historical documentary records represent a considerable resource, that to date have been underutilised in developing a more complete understanding of past weather and climate within many parts of Western Europe.

Air Quality Impacts of Oil and Gas Operations in the Northern Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmig, D.; Thompson, C. R.; Jacques, H.; Smith, K. R.; Terrell, R. M.

2014-12-01

Exceedences of the US EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for surface ozone have been reported from monitoring sites in the Northern Colorado Front Range (NCFR) for more than fifteen years during summer. Comparison of ozone records from the NCFR clearly show that ozone primarily results from regional photochemical daytime production. Recent trend analyses do not show an improvement of surface ozone despite efforts by the State of Colorado to curb ozone precursor emissions. Our review of atmospheric volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from historic and recent monitoring shows significant spatial increases of atmospheric VOC towards the oil and gas development area in Weld County, NW of the Denver-Boulder metropolitan region. Secondly, analyses of VOC trends and VOC signatures show an overall increase of oil and gas associated VOC relative to other VOC sources. These analyses suggest that oil and gas emissions are playing and increasing role in ozone production in the NCFR and that reductions of oil and gas emissions would be beneficial for lowering surface ozone and attainment of the ozone NAAQS.

Global Land Carbon Uptake from Trait Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E. E.; Datta, A.; Flores-Moreno, H.; Fazayeli, F.; Chen, M.; Wythers, K. R.; Banerjee, A.; Atkin, O. K.; Kattge, J.; Reich, P. B.

2016-12-01

Historically, functional diversity in land surface models has been represented through a range of plant functional types (PFTs), each of which has a single value for all of its functional traits. Here we expand the diversity of the land surface by using a distribution of trait values for each PFT. The data for these trait distributions is from a sub-set of the global database of plant traits, TRY, and this analysis uses three leaf traits: mass based nitrogen and phosphorus content and specific leaf area, which influence both photosynthesis and respiration. The data are extrapolated into continuous surfaces through two methodologies. The first, a categorical method, classifies the species observed in TRY into satellite estimates of their plant functional type abundances - analogous to how traits are currently assigned to PFTs in land surface models. Second, a Bayesian spatial method which additionally estimates how the distribution of a trait changes in accord with both climate and soil covariates. These two methods produce distinct patterns of diversity which are incorporated into a land surface model to estimate how the range of trait values affects the global land carbon budget.

Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Ground Measurements in a Hot Desert Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haering, Edward A., Jr.

2017-01-01

The Sonic Booms in Atmospheric Turbulence (SonicBAT) Project flew a series of 20 F-18 flights with 69 supersonic passes at Edwards Air Force Base in July 2016 to quantify the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sonic booms. Most of the passes were at a pressure altitude of 32,000 feet and a Mach number of 1.4, yielding a nominal sonic boom overpressure of 1.6 pounds per square foot. Atmospheric sensors such as GPS sondeballoons, Sonic Detection and Ranging (SODAR) acoustic sounders, and ultrasonic anemometers were used to characterize the turbulence state of the atmosphere for each flight. Spiked signatures in excess of 7 pounds per square foot were measured at some locations, as well as rounded sonic-boom signatures with levels much lower than the nominal. This presentation will quantify the range of overpressure and Perceived Level of the sonic boom as a function of turbulence parameters, and also present the spatial variation of these quantities over the array. Comparison with historical data will also be shown.

Use of the historic range of variability to evaluate ecosystem sustainability [Chapter 24

Treesearch

Carolyn B. Meyer; Dennis H. Knight; Greg K. Dillon

2010-01-01

Ecosystems are not static, having evolved with disturbances such as fire, windstorms, floods, disease, and animal activity. The natural variability imposed by such disturbances must be included when defining sustainability goals. One approach is to target the historic range of variability (HRV), determining if current management maintains the ecosystem within its HRV....

Climate change effects on historical range and variability of two large landscapes in western Montana, USA

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Russell A. Parsons; Kathy Gray

2008-01-01

Quantifying the historical range and variability of landscape composition and structure using simulation modeling is becoming an important means of assessing current landscape condition and prioritizing landscapes for ecosystem restoration. However, most simulated time series are generated using static climate conditions which fail to account for the predicted major...

The Future of Historical Family Demography

PubMed Central

Ruggles, Steven

2013-01-01

An explosion of new data sources describing historical family composition is opening unprecedented opportunities for discovery and analysis. The new data will allow comparative multilevel analysis of spatial patterns and will support studies of the transformation of living arrangements over the past 200 years. Using measurement methods that assess family choices at the individual level and analytic strategies that assess variations across space and time, we can dissect the decline of patriarchal family forms in the developed world, and place Northwestern Europe and North America in global comparative context. PMID:23946554

Neurology in Federico Fellini?s work and life.

PubMed

Teive, Hélio Afonso Ghizoni; Caramelli, Paulo; Cardoso, Francisco Eduardo Costa

2014-09-01

The authors present a historical review of the neurological diseases related to the famous moviemaker Federico Fellini. There is an account of diseases depicted on his movies as well as his ischemic stroke and consequent neurological deficit - left spatial neglect.

ENVISIONING ALTERNATIVES: USING CITIZEN GUIDANCE TO MAP FUTURE LAND AND WATER USE

EPA Science Inventory

Spatially explicit landscape analyses are a central activity in research on the relationships between people and changes in natural systems. Using geographical information systems and related tools, the Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium depicted historical (pre-Eur...

A MULTI-LOCUS, MULTI-TAXA PHYLOGEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY

EPA Science Inventory

In addition to measuring spatial patterns of genetic diversity, population genetic measures of biological resources should include temporal data that indicate whether the observed patterns are the result of historical or contemporary processes. In general, genetic measures focus...

Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

2016-04-01

In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A comparison between results for scenario A1B and RCP8.5 has been performed. The reduction obtained for the mean rainfall respect to the historical are 24.2 % and 24.4 % respectively, and the increment in the temperature are 46.3 % and 31.2 % respectively. A sensitivity analysis of the results to the statistical downscaling techniques employed has been performed. The next techniques have been explored: Perturbation method or "delta-change"; Regression method (a regression function which relates the RCM and the historic information will be used to generate future climate series for the fixed period); Quantile mapping, (it attempts to find a transformation function which relates the observed variable and the modeled variable maintaining an statistical distribution equals the observed variable); Stochastic weather generator (SWG): They can be uni-site or multi-site (which considers the spatial correlation of climatic series). A comparative analysis of these techniques has been performed identifying the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. Acknowledgments: This research has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02, ENSEMBLES and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study.

Recovery and validation of historical sediment quality data from coastal and estuarine areas: An integrated approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manheim, F.T.; Buchholtz ten Brink, Marilyn R.; Mecray, E.L.

1998-01-01

A comprehensive database of sediment chemistry and environmental parameters has been compiled for Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay. This work illustrates methodologies for rescuing and validating sediment data from heterogeneous historical sources. It greatly expands spatial and temporal data coverage of estuarine and coastal sediments. The database contains about 3500 samples containing inorganic chemical, organic, texture and other environmental data dating from 1955 to 1994. Cooperation with local and federal agencies as well as universities was essential in locating and screening documents for the database. More than 80% of references utilized came from sources with limited distribution (gray literature). Task sharing was facilitated by a comprehensive and clearly defined data dictionary for sediments. It also served as a data entry template and flat file format for data processing and as a basis for interpretation and graphical illustration. Standard QA/QC protocols are usually inapplicable to historical sediment data. In this work outliers and data quality problems were identified by batch screening techniques that also provide visualizations of data relationships and geochemical affinities. No data were excluded, but qualifying comments warn users of problem data. For Boston Harbor, the proportion of irreparable or seriously questioned data was remarkably small (<5%), although concentration values for metals and organic contaminants spanned 3 orders of magnitude for many elements or compounds. Data from the historical database provide alternatives to dated cores for measuring changes in surficial sediment contamination level with time. The data indicate that spatial inhomogeneity in harbor environments can be large with respect to sediment-hosted contaminants. Boston Inner Harbor surficial sediments showed decreases in concentrations of Cu, Hg, and Zn of 40 to 60% over a 17-year period.A comprehensive database of sediment chemistry and environmental parameters has been compiled for Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay. This work illustrates methodologies for rescuing and validating sediment data from heterogeneous historical sources. It greatly expands spatial and temporal data coverage of estuarine and coastal sediments. The database contains about 3500 samples containing inorganic chemical, organic, texture and other environmental data dating from 1995 to 1994. Cooperation with local and federal agencies as well as universities was essential in locating and screening documents for the database. More than 80% of references utilized came from sources with limited distribution (gray Task sharing was facilitated by a comprehensive and clearly defined data dictionary for sediments. It also served as a data entry template and flat file format for data processing and as a basis for interpretation and graphical illustration. Standard QA/QC protocols are usually inapplicable to historical sediment data. In this work outliers and data quality problems were identified by batch screening techniques that also provide visualizations of data relationships and geochemical affinities. No data were excluded, but qualifying comments warn users of problem data. For Boston Harbor, the proportion of irreparable or seriously questioned data was remarkably small (<5%), although concentration values for metals and organic contaminants spanned 3 orders of magnitude for many elements or compounds. Data from the historical database provide alternatives to dated cores for measuring changes in surficial sediment contamination level with time. The data indicate that spatial inhomogeneity in harbor environments can be large with respect to sediment-hosted contaminants. Boston Inner Harbor surficial sediments showed decreases in concentrations Cu, Hg, and Zn of 40 to 60% over a 17-year period.

Information transfer in auditoria and room-acoustical quality.

PubMed

Summers, Jason E

2013-04-01

It is hypothesized that room-acoustical quality correlates with the information-transfer rate. Auditoria are considered as multiple-input multiple-output communication channels and a theory of information-transfer is outlined that accounts for time-variant multipath, spatial hearing, and distributed directional sources. Source diversity and spatial hearing are shown to be the mechanisms through which multipath increases the information-transfer rate by overcoming finite spatial resolution. In addition to predictions that are confirmed by recent and historical findings, the theory provides explanations for the influence of factors such as musical repertoire and ensemble size on subjective preference and the influence of multisource, multichannel auralization on perceived realism.

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture

PubMed Central

Waring, Bonnie G.; Rocca, Jennifer D.; Kivlin, Stephanie N.

2017-01-01

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40–70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration–moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall. PMID:28559315

Development of an operational African Drought Monitor prototype

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2011-12-01

Droughts have severe economic, environmental, and social impacts. However, timely detection and monitoring can minimize these effects. Based on previous drought monitoring over the continental US, a drought monitor has been developed for Africa. Monitoring drought in data sparse regions such as Africa is difficult due to a lack of historical or real-time observational data at a high spatial and temporal resolution. As a result, a land surface model is used to estimate hydrologic variables, which are used as surrogate observations for monitoring drought. The drought monitoring system consists of two stages: the first is to create long-term historical background simulations against which current conditions can be compared. The second is the real-time estimation of current hydrological conditions that results in an estimated drought index value. For the first step, a hybrid meteorological forcing dataset was created that assimilates reanalysis and observational datasets from 1950 up to real-time. Furthermore, the land surface model (currently the VIC land surface model is being used) was recalibrated against spatially disaggregated runoff fields derived from over 500 GRDC stream gauge measurements over Africa. The final result includes a retrospective database from 1950 to real-time of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, river discharge at the GRDC gauged sites (etc.) at a 1/4 degree spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. These observation-forced simulations are analyzed to detect and track historical drought events according to a drought index that is calculated from the soil moisture fields and river discharge relative to their seasonal climatology. The real-time monitoring requires the use of remotely sensed and weather-model analysis estimates of hydrological model forcings. For the current system, NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) is used along with remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA TMPA system. The historical archive of these data is evaluated against the data set used to create the background simulations. Real-time adjustments are used to preserve consistency between the historical and real-time data. The drought monitor will be presented together with the web-interface that has been developed for the scientific community to access and retrieve the data products. This system will be deployed for operational use at AGRHYMET in Niamey, Niger before the end of 2011.

Historical ecology with real numbers: past and present extent and biomass of an imperilled estuarine habitat

PubMed Central

Zu Ermgassen, Philine S. E.; Spalding, Mark D.; Blake, Brady; Coen, Loren D.; Dumbauld, Brett; Geiger, Steve; Grabowski, Jonathan H.; Grizzle, Raymond; Luckenbach, Mark; McGraw, Kay; Rodney, William; Ruesink, Jennifer L.; Powers, Sean P.; Brumbaugh, Robert

2012-01-01

Historic baselines are important in developing our understanding of ecosystems in the face of rapid global change. While a number of studies have sought to determine changes in extent of exploited habitats over historic timescales, few have quantified such changes prior to late twentieth century baselines. Here, we present, to our knowledge, the first ever large-scale quantitative assessment of the extent and biomass of marine habitat-forming species over a 100-year time frame. We examined records of wild native oyster abundance in the United States from a historic, yet already exploited, baseline between 1878 and 1935 (predominantly 1885–1915), and a current baseline between 1968 and 2010 (predominantly 2000–2010). We quantified the extent of oyster grounds in 39 estuaries historically and 51 estuaries from recent times. Data from 24 estuaries allowed comparison of historic to present extent and biomass. We found evidence for a 64 per cent decline in the spatial extent of oyster habitat and an 88 per cent decline in oyster biomass over time. The difference between these two numbers illustrates that current areal extent measures may be masking significant loss of habitat through degradation. PMID:22696522

The polar WRF downscaled historical and projected 21st century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Lei; Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Gädeke, Anne

2018-01-01

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research & Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979-2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950-2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006-2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-hour interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Lineage range estimation method reveals fine-scale endemism linked to Pleistocene stability in Australian rainforest herpetofauna.

PubMed

Rosauer, Dan F; Catullo, Renee A; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moussalli, Adnan; Moritz, Craig

2015-01-01

Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen, shifted, and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles, and through this shifting landscape, current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia, areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape, support persistence of lineages through time, and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted, and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However, it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism, because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages, which is informed by the ecological niche of a species and known locations of its constituent lineages. Our approach allows for the effects of isolation by unsuitable habitat, and captures uncertainty in the extent of lineage ranges. Applying this method to the arc of rainforest areas spanning 3500 km in eastern Australia, we estimated lineage endemism for 53 species of rainforest dependent herpetofauna with available phylogeographic data. We related endemism to the stability of rainforest habitat over the past 120,000 years and identified distinct concentrations of lineage endemism that can be considered putative refugia. These areas of lineage endemism are strongly related to historical stability of rainforest habitat, after controlling for the effects of current environment. In fact, a dynamic stability model that allows movement to track suitable habitat over time was the most important factor in explaining current patterns of endemism. The techniques presented here provide an objective, practical method for estimating geographic ranges below the species level, and including them in spatial analyses of biodiversity.

Lineage Range Estimation Method Reveals Fine-Scale Endemism Linked to Pleistocene Stability in Australian Rainforest Herpetofauna

PubMed Central

Rosauer, Dan F.; Catullo, Renee A.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Moussalli, Adnan; Moritz, Craig

2015-01-01

Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen, shifted, and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles, and through this shifting landscape, current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia, areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape, support persistence of lineages through time, and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted, and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However, it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism, because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages, which is informed by the ecological niche of a species and known locations of its constituent lineages. Our approach allows for the effects of isolation by unsuitable habitat, and captures uncertainty in the extent of lineage ranges. Applying this method to the arc of rainforest areas spanning 3500 km in eastern Australia, we estimated lineage endemism for 53 species of rainforest dependent herpetofauna with available phylogeographic data. We related endemism to the stability of rainforest habitat over the past 120,000 years and identified distinct concentrations of lineage endemism that can be considered putative refugia. These areas of lineage endemism are strongly related to historical stability of rainforest habitat, after controlling for the effects of current environment. In fact, a dynamic stability model that allows movement to track suitable habitat over time was the most important factor in explaining current patterns of endemism. The techniques presented here provide an objective, practical method for estimating geographic ranges below the species level, and including them in spatial analyses of biodiversity. PMID:26020936

Constraining the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Conditions to Explore the Infrasound Detection of Volcanic Eruptions in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iezzi, A. M.; Schwaiger, H. F.; Fee, D.; Haney, M. M.

2015-12-01

Alaska's over 50 historically active volcanoes span 2,500 kilometers, and their eruptions pose great threats to the aviation industry. This makes both prompt observations of explosion onsets and changes in intensity a necessity. Due to their expansive range and remoteness, these volcanoes are predominantly monitored by local seismic networks, remote observations including satellite imagery and infrasound sensors. Infrasound is an especially crucial tool in this area because infrasound data collection is not obstructed by frequent cloud cover (as in satellite imagery) and infrasound waves can travel hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, infrasound station coverage is relatively sparse and strong wind and temperature gradients in the atmosphere create multiple waveguides and shadow zones where the propagation of infrasound is enhanced and diminished, respectively. To accurately constrain volcanic source information and the long-range propagation of infrasound waves, a detailed characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of the atmosphere is vital. These properties can be constrained using a ground-to-space model similar to that of Drob et al. (2003) based upon varied meteorological observations and applied to infrasound waves to model the propagation of infrasound. Here we present the first results of a re-analysis system constructed by the Alaska Volcano Observatory to accurately characterize and model long-range infrasound propagation from volcanic eruptions. We select a number of case studies to examine infrasound detections (or lack thereof) from recent eruptions of Alaskan volcanoes, including the November 2014 eruption of Pavlof Volcano and July 2015 eruption of Cleveland Volcano. Detailed examination of the acoustic propagation conditions will provide additional insight into detection capability and eruption dynamics with future work aiming to implement real-time long-range infrasound propagation modeling.Drob, Douglas P., J. M. Picone, and M. Garcés. "Global morphology of infrasound propagation." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012) 108.D21 (2003).

Development and Evaluation of Integrating Details: A Complex Spatial Problem Solving Test

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

such facts as that space is locally Euclidean and three-dimensional and that significant objects, including our own bodies : (1) are bound by two...Historically, claims have been made that spatial tests favor males, although the data have been inconsistent. More recently, a growing body of evidence suggests...INTEGRATING DETAILS INTEGRATL "IME AqC7IIRAr _( PROPOTION ) LU C 4 -DFCIStO IIMI -1 TE " t -’- 4, R ET(SaTLOCp,% li’ 8) r, ---- -- -i BLOCK SEQUENCE Figure 6

Insights and Challenges to Integrating Data from Diverse Ecological Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, D. P. C.

2014-12-01

Many of the most dramatic and surprising effects of global change occur across large spatial extents, from regions to continents, that impact multiple ecosystem types across a range of interacting spatial and temporal scales. The ability of ecologists and inter-disciplinary scientists to understand and predict these dynamics depend, in large part, on existing site-based research infrastructures that developed in response to historic events. Integrating these diverse sources of data is critical to addressing these broad-scale questions. A conceptual approach is presented to synthesize and integrate diverse sources and types of data from different networks of research sites. This approach focuses on developing derived data products through spatial and temporal aggregation that allow datasets collected with different methods to be compared. The approach is illustrated through the integration, analysis, and comparison of hundreds of long-term datasets from 50 ecological sites in the US that represent ecosystem types commonly found globally. New insights were found by comparing multiple sites using common derived data. In addition to "bringing to light" many dark data in a standardized, open access, easy-to-use format, a suite of lessons were learned that can be applied to up and coming research networks in the US and internationally. These lessons will be described along with the challenges, including cyber-infrastructure, cultural, and behavioral constraints associated with the use of big and little data, that may keep ecologists and inter-disciplinary scientists from taking full advantage of the vast amounts of existing and yet-to-be exposed data.

Applications for remotely sensed evapotranspiration data in monitoring water quality, water use, and water security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Martha; Hain, Christopher; Feng, Gao; Yang, Yun; Sun, Liang; Yang, Yang; Dulaney, Wayne; Sharifi, Amir; Kustas, William; Holmes, Thomas

2017-04-01

Across the globe there are ever-increasing and competing demands for freshwater resources in support of food production, ecosystems services and human/industrial consumption. Recent studies using the GRACE satellite have identified severely stressed aquifers that are being unsustainably depleted due to over-extraction, primarily in support of irrigated agriculture. In addition, historic droughts and ongoing political conflicts threaten food and water security in many parts of the world. To facilitate wise water management, and to develop sustainable agricultural systems that will feed the Earth's growing population into the future, there is a critical need for robust assessments of daily water use, or evapotranspiration (ET), over a wide range in spatial scales - from field to globe. While Earth Observing (EO) satellites can play a significant role in this endeavor, no single satellite provides the combined spatial, spectral and temporal characteristics required for actionable ET monitoring world-wide. In this presentation we discuss new methods for combining information from the current suite of EO satellites to address issues of water quality, water use and water security, particularly as they pertain to agricultural production. These methods fuse multi-scale diagnostic ET retrievals generated using shortwave, thermal infrared and microwave datasets from multiple EO platforms to generate ET datacubes with both high spatial and temporal resolution. We highlight several case studies where such ET datacubes are being mined to investigate changes in water use patterns over agricultural landscapes in response to changing land use, land management, and climate forcings.

Ecological Speciation in Nolina parviflora (Asparagaceae): Lacking Spatial Connectivity along of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo; Specht, Chelsea D.

2014-01-01

The hypothesis of ecological speciation states that as populations diverge in different niches, reproductive isolation evolves as a by-product of adaptation to these different environments. In this context, we used Nolina parviflora as a model to test if this species evolved via ecological speciation and to explore current and historical gene flow among its populations. Nolina parviflora is a montane species endemic to Mexico with its geographical distribution restricted largely to the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. This mountain range is one of the most complex geological regions in Mexico, having undergone volcanism from the mid-Miocene to the present. Ecologically, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt possesses different types of vegetation, including tropical dry forest; oak, pine, pine-oak, and pine-juniper forests; and xerophytic scrub - all of which maintain populations of N. parviflora. Using species distribution models, climatic analyses, spatial connectivity and morphological comparisons, we found significant differences in climatic and morphological variables between populations of N. parviflora in two distinct Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt regions (east vs. west). This could mean that the geographically isolated populations diverged from one another via niche divergence, indicating ecological speciation. Spatial connectivity analysis revealed no connectivity between these regions under the present or last glacial maximum climate models, indicating a lack of gene flow between the populations of the two regions. The results imply that these populations may encompass more than a single species. PMID:24905911

Nigella sativa Oil Enhances the Spatial Working Memory Performance of Rats on a Radial Arm Maze

PubMed Central

Sahak, Mohamad Khairul Azali; Mohamed, Abdul Majid; Hashim, Noor Hashida; Hasan Adli, Durriyyah Sharifah

2013-01-01

Nigella sativa, an established historical and religion-based remedy for a wide range of health problems, is a herbal medicine known to have antioxidant and neuroprotective effects. This present study investigated the effect of Nigella sativa oil (NSO) administration on the spatial memory performance (SMP) of male adult rats using eight-arm radial arm maze (RAM). Twelve Sprague Dawley rats (7–9 weeks old) were force-fed daily with 6.0 μL/100 g body weight of Nigella sativa oil (NSO group; n = 6) or 0.1 mL/100 g body weight of corn oil (control) (CO group; n = 6) for a period of 20 consecutive weeks. For each weekly evaluation of SMP, one day food-deprived rats were tested by allowing each of them 3 minutes to explore the RAM for food as their rewards. Similar to the control group, the SMP of the treated group was not hindered, as indicated by the establishment of the reference and working memory components of the spatial memory. The results demonstrated that lesser mean numbers of error were observed for the NSO-treated group in both parameters as compared to the CO-treated group. NSO could therefore enhance the learning and memory abilities of the rats; there was a significant decrease in the overall mean number of working memory error (WME) in the NSO-treated group. PMID:24454487

Spatially robust estimates of biological nitrogen (N) fixation imply substantial human alteration of the tropical N cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Benjamin W.; Smith, William K.; Townsend, Alan R.; Nasto, Megan K.; Reed, Sasha C.; Chazdon, Robin L.; Cleveland, Cory C.

2014-01-01

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the largest natural source of exogenous nitrogen (N) to unmanaged ecosystems and also the primary baseline against which anthropogenic changes to the N cycle are measured. Rates of BNF in tropical rainforest are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but they are notoriously difficult to quantify and are based on little empirical data. We adapted a sampling strategy from community ecology to generate spatial estimates of symbiotic and free-living BNF in secondary and primary forest sites that span a typical range of tropical forest legume abundance. Although total BNF was higher in secondary than primary forest, overall rates were roughly five times lower than previous estimates for the tropical forest biome. We found strong correlations between symbiotic BNF and legume abundance, but we also show that spatially free-living BNF often exceeds symbiotic inputs. Our results suggest that BNF in tropical forest has been overestimated, and our data are consistent with a recent top-down estimate of global BNF that implied but did not measure low tropical BNF rates. Finally, comparing tropical BNF within the historical area of tropical rainforest with current anthropogenic N inputs indicates that humans have already at least doubled reactive N inputs to the tropical forest biome, a far greater change than previously thought. Because N inputs are increasing faster in the tropics than anywhere on Earth, both the proportion and the effects of human N enrichment are likely to grow in the future.

Ecological speciation in Nolina parviflora (Asparagaceae): lacking spatial connectivity along of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt.

PubMed

Ruiz-Sanchez, Eduardo; Specht, Chelsea D

2014-01-01

The hypothesis of ecological speciation states that as populations diverge in different niches, reproductive isolation evolves as a by-product of adaptation to these different environments. In this context, we used Nolina parviflora as a model to test if this species evolved via ecological speciation and to explore current and historical gene flow among its populations. Nolina parviflora is a montane species endemic to Mexico with its geographical distribution restricted largely to the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. This mountain range is one of the most complex geological regions in Mexico, having undergone volcanism from the mid-Miocene to the present. Ecologically, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt possesses different types of vegetation, including tropical dry forest; oak, pine, pine-oak, and pine-juniper forests; and xerophytic scrub--all of which maintain populations of N. parviflora. Using species distribution models, climatic analyses, spatial connectivity and morphological comparisons, we found significant differences in climatic and morphological variables between populations of N. parviflora in two distinct Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt regions (east vs. west). This could mean that the geographically isolated populations diverged from one another via niche divergence, indicating ecological speciation. Spatial connectivity analysis revealed no connectivity between these regions under the present or last glacial maximum climate models, indicating a lack of gene flow between the populations of the two regions. The results imply that these populations may encompass more than a single species.

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod

PubMed Central

Engelhard, Georg H; Righton, David A; Pinnegar, John K

2014-01-01

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time-series spanning 1913–2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod – mostly in the deeper, northern- and north-easternmost parts of the North Sea – is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century – mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries-independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish. PMID:24375860

Population genetics and the evolution of geographic range limits in an annual plant.

PubMed

Moeller, David A; Geber, Monica A; Tiffin, Peter

2011-10-01

Abstract Theoretical models of species' geographic range limits have identified both demographic and evolutionary mechanisms that prevent range expansion. Stable range limits have been paradoxical for evolutionary biologists because they represent locations where populations chronically fail to respond to selection. Distinguishing among the proposed causes of species' range limits requires insight into both current and historical population dynamics. The tools of molecular population genetics provide a window into the stability of range limits, historical demography, and rates of gene flow. Here we evaluate alternative range limit models using a multilocus data set based on DNA sequences and microsatellites along with field demographic data from the annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. Our data suggest that central and peripheral populations have very large historical and current effective population sizes and that there is little evidence for population size changes or bottlenecks associated with colonization in peripheral populations. Whereas range limit populations appear to have been stable, central populations exhibit a signature of population expansion and have contributed asymmetrically to the genetic diversity of peripheral populations via migration. Overall, our results discount strictly demographic models of range limits and more strongly support evolutionary genetic models of range limits, where adaptation is prevented by a lack of genetic variation or maladaptive gene flow.

Understanding the connection between historic range of variation, current social values and developing desired conditions

Treesearch

Larry Blocker; Susan K. Hagle; Rick Lasko; Robert Keane; Barry Bollenbacher; Bruce Fox; Fred Samson; Randy Gay; Cynthia Manning

2001-01-01

Relationships between the development of desired conditions based on today’s social values, and an understanding of the historic range of variability (HRV) are key to the implementation of ecosystem management. Relevant to the discussion are wildlife habitat values, forage production, economics related to wood resources, aesthetics and visual quality, changes in...

Chiricahua leopard frog status in the Galiuro Mountains, Arizona, with a monitoring framework for the species' entire range

Treesearch

Lawrence L. C. Jones; Michael J. Sredl

2005-01-01

The Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis) was historically widespread in suitable habitat throughout its range. Reports of recent population declines led to inventories of Chiricahua leopard frog localities. Surveys reported here establish a new baseline of occurrence in the Galiuros: only two of 21 historical localities were found to be...

Historic range of variability for upland vegetation in the Medicine Bow National Forest, Wyoming

Treesearch

Gregory K. Dillon; Dennis H. Knight; Carolyn B. Meyer

2005-01-01

An approach for synthesizing the results of ecological research pertinent to land management is the analysis of the historic range of variability (HRV) for key ecosystem variables that are affected by management activities. This report provides an HRV analysis for the upland vegetation of the Medicine Bow National Forest in southeastern Wyoming. The variables include...

Historic range of variability for upland vegetation in the Bighorn National Forest, Wyoming

Treesearch

Carolyn B. Meyer; Dennis H. Knight; Gregory K. Dillon

2005-01-01

An approach for synthesizing the results of ecological research pertinent to land management is the analysis of the historic range of variability (HRV) for key ecosystem variables that are affected by management activities. This report provides an HRV analysis for the upland vegetation of the Bighorn National Forest in northcentral Wyoming. The variables include live...

Historical range of variability in live and dead wood biomass: a regional-scale simulation study

Treesearch

Etsuko Nonaka; Thomas A. Spies; Michael C. Wimberly; Janet L. Ohmann

2007-01-01

The historical range of variability (HRV) in landscape structure and composition created by natural disturbance can serve as a general guide for evaluating ecological conditions of managed landscapes. HRV approaches to evaluating landscapes have been based on age classes or developmental stages, which may obscure variation in live and dead stand structure. Developing...

Historical effects of logging on forests of the Cascade and Sierra Nevada ranges of California

Treesearch

William F. Laudenslayer; Herman H. Darr

1990-01-01

Ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine, mixed conifer, and white fir forests of the Cascade and Sierra Nevada Ranges of California have been important resources and were extensively altered by timber harvest between 1850 and 1950. Many historical logging operations were small in size and of short duration. Other operations encompassed thousands of acres and existed for...

Historical range of variation assessment for wetland and riparian ecosystems, U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region

Treesearch

Edward Gage; David J. Cooper

2013-01-01

This document provides an overview of historical range of variation concepts and explores their application to wetland and riparian ecosystems in the US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region (Region 2), which includes National Forests and National Grasslands occurring in the states of Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota. For each of five ecosystem...

Introduction to natural disturbances and historic range of variation: type, frequency, severity, and post-disturbance structure in central hardwood forests

Treesearch

Katie Greenberg; Beverly S. Collins; Henry McNab; Douglas K. Miller; Gary R. Wein

2015-01-01

EXCERPT FROM: Natural Disturbances and Historic Range Variation 2015. Throughout the history of upland hardwood forests of the Central Hardwood Region, natural disturbances have been integral to shaping forest structure and composition, and essential in maintaining diverse biotic...

The use of historical range and variability (HRV) in landscape management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Paul F. Hessburg; Peter B. Landres; Fred J. Swanson

2009-01-01

This paper examines the past, present, and future use of the concept of historical range and variability (HRV) in land management. The history, central concepts, benefits, and limitations of HRV are presented along with a discussion on the value of HRV in a changing world with rapid climate warming, exotic species invasions, and increased land development. This paper...

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-03-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species.

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

PubMed Central

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-01-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species. PMID:28276473

The historic role of humans and other keystone species in shaping central hardwood forests for disturbance-dependent wildlife

Treesearch

Katie Greenberg; Kendrick Weeks; Gordon S. Warburton

2015-01-01

EXCERPT FROM: Natural Disturbances and Historic Range Variation 2015
 Multiple natural disturbance types historically created conditions thatwere suitable for many, but not all, disturbance-dependent wildlife species in the Central Hardwood Region (CHR). In...

Visualization as an Aid to Problem-Solving: Examples from History.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieber, Lloyd P.

This paper presents a historical overview of visualization as a human problem-solving tool. Visualization strategies, such as mental imagery, pervade historical accounts of scientific discovery and invention. A selected number of historical examples are presented and discussed on a wide range of topics such as physics, aviation, and the science of…

Sandia National Laboratories, Tonopah Test Range Askania Tower (Building 02-00): Photographs and Written Historical and Descriptive Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ullrich, Rebecca A.

The Askania Tower (Building 02-00) was built in 1956 as part of the first wave of construction at the newly established Tonopah Test Range (TTR). Located at Station 2, near the primary target area at the range, the tower was one of the first four built to house Askania phototheodolites used in tracking test units dropped from aircraft. This report includes historical information, architectural information, sources of information, project information, maps, blueprints, and photographs.

Spatial versus Dimensional Characteristics Underlying Environmental Perceptions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-10-20

only the immediate sensory stimuli of the situation but also encompasses social and symbolic meanings. Payne and Mansfield (1973) stated the issue more...Review, 1973, 80, 307-336. Ekehamnar, B. Interactionism in personality from a historical perspective. Psychological Bulletin, 1974, 81, 1026-1048. Endler

Narrowing historical uncertainty: probabilistic classification of ambiguously identified tree species in historical forest survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mladenoff, D.J.; Dahir, S.E.; Nordheim, E.V.; Schulte, L.A.; Guntenspergen, G.R.

2002-01-01

Historical data have increasingly become appreciated for insight into the past conditions of ecosystems. Uses of such data include assessing the extent of ecosystem change; deriving ecological baselines for management, restoration, and modeling; and assessing the importance of past conditions on the composition and function of current systems. One historical data set of this type is the Public Land Survey (PLS) of the United States General Land Office, which contains data on multiple tree species, sizes, and distances recorded at each survey point, located at half-mile (0.8 km) intervals on a 1-mi (1.6 km) grid. This survey method was begun in the 1790s on US federal lands extending westward from Ohio. Thus, the data have the potential of providing a view of much of the US landscape from the mid-1800s, and they have been used extensively for this purpose. However, historical data sources, such as those describing the species composition of forests, can often be limited in the detail recorded and the reliability of the data, since the information was often not originally recorded for ecological purposes. Forest trees are sometimes recorded ambiguously, using generic or obscure common names. For the PLS data of northern Wisconsin, USA, we developed a method to classify ambiguously identified tree species using logistic regression analysis, using data on trees that were clearly identified to species and a set of independent predictor variables to build the models. The models were first created on partial data sets for each species and then tested for fit against the remaining data. Validations were conducted using repeated, random subsets of the data. Model prediction accuracy ranged from 81% to 96% in differentiating congeneric species among oak, pine, ash, maple, birch, and elm. Major predictor variables were tree size, associated species, landscape classes indicative of soil type, and spatial location within the study region. Results help to clarify ambiguities formerly present in maps of historic ecosystems for the region and can be applied to PLS datasets elsewhere, as well as other sources of ambiguous historical data. Mapping the newly classified data with ecological land units provides additional information on the distribution, abundance, and associations of tree species, as well as their relationships to environmental gradients before the industrial period, and clarifies the identities of species formerly mapped only to genus. We offer some caveats on the appropriate use of data derived in this way, as well as describing their potential.

Rapid divergence of mussel populations despite incomplete barriers to dispersal.

PubMed

Maas, Diede L; Prost, Stefan; Bi, Ke; Smith, Lydia L; Armstrong, Ellie E; Aji, Ludi P; Toha, Abdul Hamid A; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Becking, Leontine E

2018-04-01

Striking genetic structure among marine populations at small spatial scales is becoming evident with extensive molecular studies. Such observations suggest isolation at small scales may play an important role in forming patterns of genetic diversity within species. Isolation-by-distance, isolation-by-environment and historical priority effects are umbrella terms for a suite of processes that underlie genetic structure, but their relative importance at different spatial and temporal scales remains elusive. Here, we use marine lakes in Indonesia to assess genetic structure and assess the relative roles of the processes in shaping genetic differentiation in populations of a bivalve mussel (Brachidontes sp.). Marine lakes are landlocked waterbodies of similar age (6,000-10,000 years), but with heterogeneous environments and varying degrees of connection to the sea. Using a population genomic approach (double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing), we show strong genetic structuring across populations (range F ST : 0.07-0.24) and find limited gene flow through admixture plots. At large spatial scales (>1,400 km), a clear isolation-by-distance pattern was detected. At smaller spatial scales (<200 km), this pattern is maintained, but accompanied by an association of genetic divergence with degree of connection. We hypothesize that (incomplete) dispersal barriers can cause initial isolation, allowing priority effects to give the numerical advantage necessary to initiate strong genetic structure. Priority effects may be strengthened by local adaptation, which the data may corroborate by showing a high correlation between mussel genotypes and temperature. Our study indicates an often-neglected role of (evolution-mediated) priority effects in shaping population divergence. © 2018 The Authors. Molecular Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

Spatial Modeling of Agricultural Land-Use Change at Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meiyappan, Prasanth; Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian C.; Jain, Atul K.

2013-12-01

Land use is both a source and consequence of climate change. Long-term modeling of land use is central in global scale assessments using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore policy alternatives; especially because adaptation and mitigation of climate change requires long-term commitment. We present a land-use change modeling framework that can reproduce the past 100 years of evolution of global cropland and pastureland patterns to a reasonable accuracy. The novelty of our approach underlies in integrating knowledge from both the observed behavior and economic rationale behind land-use decisions, thereby making up for the intrinsic deficits in both the disciplines. The underlying economic rationale is profit maximization of individual landowners that implicitly reflects local-level decisions-making process at a larger scale. Observed behavior based on examining the relationships between contemporary land-use patterns and its socioeconomic and biophysical drivers, enters as an explicit factor into the economic framework. The land-use allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land-use types. The framework accounts for spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions. The model is currently configured to downscale continental-scale aggregate land-use information to region specific changes in land-use patterns (0.5-deg spatial resolution). The temporal resolution is one year. The historical validation experiment is facilitated by synthesizing gridded maps of a wide range of potential biophysical and socioeconomic driving factors for the 20th century. To our knowledge, this is the first retrospective analysis that has been successful in reproducing the historical experience at a global scale. We apply the method to gain useful insights on two questions: (1) what are the dominant socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors of contemporary cropland and pastureland patterns, across geographic regions, and (2) the impacts of various driving factors on shaping the cropland and pastureland patterns over the 20th century. Specifically, we focus on the causes of changes in land-use patterns in certain key regions of the world, such as the abandonment of cropland in the eastern US and a subsequent expansion to the mid-west US. This presentation will focus on the scientific basis behind the developed framework and motivations behind selecting specific statistical techniques to implement the scientific theory. Specifically, we will highlight the application of recently developed statistical techniques that are highly efficient in dealing with problems such as spatial autocorrelation and multicollinearity that are common in land-change studies. However, these statistical techniques have largely been confined to medical literature. We will present the validation results and an example application of the developed framework within an IAM. The presented framework provides a benchmark for long-term spatial modeling of land use that will benefit the IAM, land use and the Earth system modeling communities.

The connection between typological complexes of properties of the nervous system, temperaments, and personality types in the professions and sports

PubMed Central

Drozdovski, Aleksandr K

2015-01-01

Based on experimental studies in education, professions and sports, an attempt was made to combine the following two historically disconnected research directions in the study of the natural human traits into a single coordinate system: Pavlov’s theory on the properties of the nervous system, as well as the types of higher nervous activity, and Jung’s theory on psychological types. It is noted that Pavlov’s school of thought was developed by his followers in Russia within the scientific school of differential psychophysiology, while Yung’s theory was developed through the works of well-known American researchers Myers and Keirsey. The spatial model that is presented here rests on the knowledge of the properties of the human nervous system and enables the prediction of psychological characteristics, temperament, and psychological types of individuals belonging to a wide age range. PMID:26056499

High fidelity studies of exploding foil initiator bridges, Part 2: Experimental results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neal, William; Bowden, Mike

2017-01-01

Simulations of high voltage detonators, such as Exploding Bridgewire (EBW) and Exploding Foil Initiators (EFI), have historically been simple, often empirical, one-dimensional models capable of predicting parameters such as current, voltage, and in the case of EFIs, flyer velocity. Experimental methods have correspondingly generally been limited to the same parameters. With the advent of complex, first principles magnetohydrodynamic codes such as ALEGRA MHD, it is now possible to simulate these components in three dimensions and predict greater range of parameters than before. A significant improvement in experimental capability was therefore required to ensure these simulations could be adequately verified. In this second paper of a three part study, data is presented from a flexible foil EFI header experiment. This study has shown that there is significant bridge expansion before time of peak voltage and that heating within the bridge material is spatially affected by the microstructure of the metal foil.

Twentieth century turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: Landscape change versus climate drivers.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Cuervo-Robayo, Angela P; Berlanga, Humberto; Soberón, Jorge

2015-05-01

Numerous climate change effects on biodiversity have been anticipated and documented, including extinctions, range shifts, phenological shifts, and breakdown of interactions in ecological communities, yet the relative balance of different climate drivers and their relationships to other agents of global change (for example, land use and land-use change) remains relatively poorly understood. This study integrated historical and current biodiversity data on distributions of 115 Mexican endemic bird species to document areas of concentrated gains and losses of species in local communities, and then related those changes to climate and land-use drivers. Of all drivers examined, at this relatively coarse spatial resolution, only temperature change had significant impacts on avifaunal turnover; neither precipitation change nor human impact on landscapes had detectable effects. This study, conducted across species' geographic distributions, and covering all of Mexico, thanks to two large-scale biodiversity data sets, could discern relative importance of specific climatic drivers of biodiversity change.

Associating extreme precipitation events to parent cyclones in gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Ruari; Shaffrey, Len; Gray, Sue

2015-04-01

When analysing the relationship of regional precipitation to its parent cyclone, it is insufficient to consider the cyclone's region of influence as a fixed radius from the centre due to the irregular shape of rain bands. A new method is therefore presented which allows the use of objective feature tracking data in the analysis of regional precipitation. Utilising the spatial extent of precipitation in gridded datasets, the most appropriate cyclone(s) may be associated with regional precipitation events. This method is applied in the context of an analysis of the influence of clustering and stalling of extra-tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic on total precipitation accumulations over England and Wales. Cyclone counts and residence times are presented for historical records (ERA-Interim) and future projections (HadGEM2-ES) of extreme (> 98th percentile) precipitation accumulations over England and Wales, for accumulation periods ranging from one day to one month.

Seismic hazard in the Intermountain West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haller, Kathleen; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

The 2014 national seismic-hazard model for the conterminous United States incorporates new scientific results and important model adjustments. The current model includes updates to the historical catalog, which is spatially smoothed using both fixed-length and adaptive-length smoothing kernels. Fault-source characterization improved by adding faults, revising rates of activity, and incorporating new results from combined inversions of geologic and geodetic data. The update also includes a new suite of published ground motion models. Changes in probabilistic ground motion are generally less than 10% in most of the Intermountain West compared to the prior assessment, and ground-motion hazard in four Intermountain West cities illustrates the range and magnitude of change in the region. Seismic hazard at reference sites in Boise and Reno increased as much as 10%, whereas hazard in Salt Lake City decreased 5–6%. The largest change was in Las Vegas, where hazard increased 32–35%.

Historical, observed, and modeled wildfire severity in montane forests of the Colorado Front Range.

PubMed

Sherriff, Rosemary L; Platt, Rutherford V; Veblen, Thomas T; Schoennagel, Tania L; Gartner, Meredith H

2014-01-01

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.

Historical, Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range

PubMed Central

Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Platt, Rutherford V.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Schoennagel, Tania L.; Gartner, Meredith H.

2014-01-01

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions. PMID:25251103

Evaluation of New Zealand’s High-Seas Bottom Trawl Closures Using Predictive Habitat Models and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Penney, Andrew J.; Guinotte, John M.

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas. PMID:24358162

Investigation of the Fractal Geometry of Tundra Lake Patterns using Historical Topographic Maps and Satellite Imagery.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariyawasam, T.; Essa, A.; Gong, M.; Sudakov, I.

2017-12-01

Greenhouse gas emissions from tundra lakes are a significant positive feedback to the atmosphere in a changing climate as a pronounced growth of the numbers of tundra lake patterns has been observed in the Arctic region. Detailed knowledge of spatial dynamics of lake patterns in a changing arctic tundra landscape and their geometrical properties is therefore potentially valuable, in order to understand and accurately model the sources of greenhouse gas emissions from boreal permafrost. Our goal is to use a collection of historical topographic maps and satellite imagery of tundra lakes to conduct computational image analyses for examining spatial dynamics of Tundra lake patterns. Our approach is based upon analyzing area-perimeter data of thousands of tundra lakes to compute the fractal dimension to study the tundra lake pattern geometry, which have been used to classify pollen grains by textual patterning (Mander, 2016), vegetation in dryland ecosystems (Mander, 2017) and melt pond patterns (Hohenegger, 2012). By analyzing area - perimeter data for over 900 lakes we find that for both historical topographic maps and current satellite imagery, the fractal dimension D is stable at 1.6 for Tundra lakes with area less than about 100km2. For Tundra lake sizes bigger than 100 km2 fractal dimension takes values close to 2 and less than one indicative of structural changes in Tundra lake pattern geometry. Furthermore the current study did not reveal any percolation transition above some critical threshold in Tundra lake evolution. The results of the study will provide scientists with new data on these aspects of tundra lakes to help characterize the geomorphology of spatial patterns in arctic tundra lakes.

Evaluation of New Zealand's high-seas bottom trawl closures using predictive habitat models and quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Penney, Andrew J; Guinotte, John M

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas.

Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, Peter

2017-10-01

An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

Rewilding the tropics, and other conservation translocations strategies in the tropical Asia-Pacific region

PubMed Central

Louys, Julien; Corlett, Richard T; Price, Gilbert J; Hawkins, Stuart; Piper, Philip J

2014-01-01

Alarm over the prospects for survival of species in a rapidly changing world has encouraged discussion of translocation conservation strategies that move beyond the focus of ‘at-risk’ species. These approaches consider larger spatial and temporal scales than customary, with the aim of recreating functioning ecosystems through a combination of large-scale ecological restoration and species introductions. The term ‘rewilding’ has come to apply to this large-scale ecosystem restoration program. While reintroductions of species within their historical ranges have become standard conservation tools, introductions within known paleontological ranges—but outside historical ranges—are more controversial, as is the use of taxon substitutions for extinct species. Here, we consider possible conservation translocations for nine large-bodied taxa in tropical Asia-Pacific. We consider the entire spectrum of conservation translocation strategies as defined by the IUCN in addition to rewilding. The taxa considered are spread across diverse taxonomic and ecological spectra and all are listed as ‘endangered’ or ‘critically endangered’ by the IUCN in our region of study. They all have a written and fossil record that is sufficient to assess past changes in range, as well as ecological and environmental preferences, and the reasons for their decline, and they have all suffered massive range restrictions since the late Pleistocene. General principles, problems, and benefits of translocation strategies are reviewed as case studies. These allowed us to develop a conservation translocation matrix, with taxa scored for risk, benefit, and feasibility. Comparisons between taxa across this matrix indicated that orangutans, tapirs, Tasmanian devils, and perhaps tortoises are the most viable taxa for translocations. However, overall the case studies revealed a need for more data and research for all taxa, and their ecological and environmental needs. Rewilding the Asian-Pacific tropics remains a controversial conservation strategy, and would be difficult in what is largely a highly fragmented area geographically. PMID:25540698

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security.

PubMed

Kriticos, Darren J; Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world's worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management.

Assessing and Managing the Current and Future Pest Risk from Water Hyacinth, (Eichhornia crassipes), an Invasive Aquatic Plant Threatening the Environment and Water Security

PubMed Central

Brunel, Sarah

2016-01-01

Understanding and managing the biological invasion threats posed by aquatic plants under current and future climates is a growing challenge for biosecurity and land management agencies worldwide. Eichhornia crassipes is one of the world’s worst aquatic weeds. Presently, it threatens aquatic ecosystems, and hinders the management and delivery of freshwater services in both developed and developing parts of the world. A niche model was fitted using CLIMEX, to estimate the potential distribution of E. crassipes under historical and future climate scenarios. Under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2080 simulated with three Global Climate Models, the area with a favourable temperature regime appears set to shift polewards. The greatest potential for future range expansion lies in Europe. Elsewhere in the northern hemisphere temperature gradients are too steep for significant geographical range expansion under the climate scenarios explored here. In the Southern Hemisphere, the southern range boundary for E. crassipes is set to expand southwards in Argentina, Australia and New Zealand; under current climate conditions it is already able to invade the southern limits of Africa. The opportunity exists to prevent its spread into the islands of Tasmania in Australia and the South Island of New Zealand, both of which depend upon hydroelectric facilities that would be threatened by the presence of E. crassipes. In Europe, efforts to slow or stop the spread of E. crassipes will face the challenge of limited internal biosecurity capacity. The modelling technique demonstrated here is the first application of niche modelling for an aquatic weed under historical and projected future climates. It provides biosecurity agencies with a spatial tool to foresee and manage the emerging invasion threats in a manner that can be included in the international standard for pest risk assessments. It should also support more detailed local and regional management. PMID:27513336

A spatial risk assessment of bighorn sheep extirpation by grazing domestic sheep on public lands.

PubMed

Carpenter, Tim E; Coggins, Victor L; McCarthy, Clinton; O'Brien, Chans S; O'Brien, Joshua M; Schommer, Timothy J

2014-04-01

Bighorn sheep currently occupy just 30% of their historic distribution, and persist in populations less than 5% as abundant overall as their early 19th century counterparts. Present-day recovery of bighorn sheep populations is in large part limited by periodic outbreaks of respiratory disease, which can be transmitted to bighorn sheep via contact with domestic sheep grazing in their vicinity. In order to assess the viability of bighorn sheep populations on the Payette National Forest (PNF) under several alternative proposals for domestic sheep grazing, we developed a series of interlinked models. Using telemetry and habitat data, we characterized herd home ranges and foray movements of bighorn sheep from their home ranges. Combining foray model movement estimates with known domestic sheep grazing areas (allotments), a Risk of Contact Model estimated bighorn sheep contact rates with domestic sheep allotments. Finally, we used demographic and epidemiologic data to construct population and disease transmission models (Disease Model), which we used to estimate bighorn sheep persistence under each alternative grazing scenario. Depending on the probability of disease transmission following interspecies contact, extirpation probabilities for the seven bighorn sheep herds examined here ranged from 20% to 100%. The Disease Model allowed us to assess the probabilities that varied domestic sheep management scenarios would support persistent populations of free-ranging bighorn sheep. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SpeciesGeoCoder: Fast Categorization of Species Occurrences for Analyses of Biodiversity, Biogeography, Ecology, and Evolution.

PubMed

Töpel, Mats; Zizka, Alexander; Calió, Maria Fernanda; Scharn, Ruud; Silvestro, Daniele; Antonelli, Alexandre

2017-03-01

Understanding the patterns and processes underlying the uneven distribution of biodiversity across space constitutes a major scientific challenge in systematic biology and biogeography, which largely relies on effectively mapping and making sense of rapidly increasing species occurrence data. There is thus an urgent need for making the process of coding species into spatial units faster, automated, transparent, and reproducible. Here we present SpeciesGeoCoder, an open-source software package written in Python and R, that allows for easy coding of species into user-defined operational units. These units may be of any size and be purely spatial (i.e., polygons) such as countries and states, conservation areas, biomes, islands, biodiversity hotspots, and areas of endemism, but may also include elevation ranges. This flexibility allows scoring species into complex categories, such as those encountered in topographically and ecologically heterogeneous landscapes. In addition, SpeciesGeoCoder can be used to facilitate sorting and cleaning of occurrence data obtained from online databases, and for testing the impact of incorrect identification of specimens on the spatial coding of species. The various outputs of SpeciesGeoCoder include quantitative biodiversity statistics, global and local distribution maps, and files that can be used directly in many phylogeny-based applications for ancestral range reconstruction, investigations of biome evolution, and other comparative methods. Our simulations indicate that even datasets containing hundreds of millions of records can be analyzed in relatively short time using a standard computer. We exemplify the use of SpeciesGeoCoder by inferring the historical dispersal of birds across the Isthmus of Panama, showing that lowland species crossed the Isthmus about twice as frequently as montane species with a marked increase in the number of dispersals during the last 10 million years. [ancestral area reconstruction; biodiversity patterns; ecology; evolution; point in polygon; species distribution data.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Habitat suitability of patch types: a case study of the Yosemite toad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liang, Christina T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2011-01-01

Understanding patch variability is crucial in understanding the spatial population structure of wildlife species, especially for rare or threatened species. We used a well-tested maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) to map the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus (= Bufo) canorus) in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. Twenty-six environmental variables were included in the model representing climate, topography, land cover type, and disturbance factors (e.g., distances to agricultural lands, fire perimeters, and timber harvest areas) throughout the historic range of the toad. We then took a novel approach to the study of spatially structured populations by applying the species-environmental matching model separately for 49 consistently occupied sites of the Yosemite toad compared to 27 intermittently occupied sites. We found that the distribution of the entire population was highly predictable (AUC = 0.95±0.03 SD), and associated with low slopes, specific vegetation types (wet meadow, alpine-dwarf shrub, montane chaparral, red fir, and subalpine conifer), and warm temperatures. The consistently occupied sites were also associated with these same factors, and they were also highly predictable (AUC = 0.95±0.05 SD). However, the intermittently occupied sites were associated with distance to fire perimeter, a slightly different response to vegetation types, distance to timber harvests, and a much broader set of aspect classes (AUC = 0.90±0.11 SD). We conclude that many studies of species distributions may benefit by modeling spatially structured populations separately. Modeling and monitoring consistently-occupied sites may provide a realistic snapshot of current species-environment relationships, important climatic and topographic patterns associated with species persistence patterns, and an understanding of the plasticity of the species to respond to varying climate regimes across its range. Meanwhile, modeling and monitoring of widely dispersing individuals and intermittently occupied sites may uncover environmental thresholds and human-related threats to population persistence.

Adjusting measured peak discharges from an urbanizing watershed to reflect a stationary land use signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beighley, R. Edward; Moglen, Glenn E.

2003-04-01

A procedure to adjust gauged streamflow data from watersheds urbanized during or after their gauging period is presented. The procedure adjusts streamflow to be representative of a fixed land use condition, which may reflect current or future development conditions. Our intent is to determine what an event resulting in a peak discharge in, for example, 1950 (i.e., before urbanization) would produce on the current urban watershed. While past approaches assumed uniform spatial and temporal changes in urbanization, this study focuses on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) based methodologies for precisely locating in space and time where land use change has occurred. This information is incorporated into a hydrologic model to simulate the change in discharge as a result of changing land use conditions. In this paper, we use historical aerial photographs, GIS linked tax-map data, and recent land use/land cover data to recreate the spatial development history of eight gauged watersheds in the Baltimore-Washington, D. C., metropolitan area. Using our procedure to determine discharge series representative of the current urban watersheds, we found that the increase of the adjusted 2-year discharge ranged from 16 to 70 percent compared with the measured annual maximum discharge series. For the 100-year discharge the adjusted values ranged from 0 to 47 percent greater than the measured values. Additionally, relationships between the increase in flood flows and four measures of urbanization (increase in urban land, decrease in forested land, increase in high-density development, and the spatial development pattern) are investigated for predicting the increase in flood flows for ungauged watersheds. Watersheds with the largest increases in flood flows typically had more extensive development in the areas far removed from the outlet. In contrast, watersheds with development located nearer to the outlet typically had the smallest increases in peak discharge.

Space invaders? A search for patterns underlying the coexistence of alien black rats and Galápagos rice rats.

PubMed

Harris, Donna B; Gregory, Stephen D; Macdonald, David W

2006-08-01

The introduction and spread of the black rat Rattus rattus is believed to have caused the worst decline of any vertebrate taxon in Galápagos. However, the "extinct" Santiago rice rat Nesoryzomys swarthi has recently been rediscovered in sympatry with R. rattus providing the first exception to this general pattern of displacement. We carried out an exploratory investigation of this novel system with the aim of identifying patterns that may facilitate the apparent coexistence of the two species. We carried out an extensive survey of Santiago Island to map the current distribution of the endemic rice rat and to explore broad scale distribution-habitat associations. We then used live-trapping, radio-tracking, and spool-and-line tracking to quantify abundance-habitat correlations and to test for evidence of interspecific spatial segregation, alteration of N. swarthi activity patterns (spatial and temporal), and microhabitat partitioning. We found that N. swarthi has disappeared from part of its historical range and appears to be restricted to a 14 km stretch of the north-central coast, characterised by high density of the cactus Opuntia galapageia. In contrast, the generalist R. rattus was found at all survey sites. We found no evidence of spatial segregation, and home range size, temporal activity and density of N. swarthi did not vary with local density of R. rattus. However, pre-dawn and post-dusk N. swarthi activity levels increased with R. rattus density perhaps reflecting an increase in foraging effort necessary to compensate for the costs of interspecific exploitation or interference competition. The distribution, microhabitat selection, and abundance-habitat relations of N. swarthi suggest that the endemic cactus O. galapageia may facilitate interspecific coexistence. Further research should include a comparison of inter-seasonal resource preference and foraging activity of the two species coupled with replicated field experiments to confirm and quantify competition and to elucidate the mechanism of competitive coexistence.

Creating historical range of variation (HRV) time series using landscape modeling: Overview and issues [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane

2012-01-01

Simulation modeling can be a powerful tool for generating information about historical range of variation (HRV) in landscape conditions. In this chapter, I will discuss several aspects of the use of simulation modeling to generate landscape HRV data, including (1) the advantages and disadvantages of using simulation, (2) a brief review of possible landscape models. and...

Exploring Neuropsychology: Seeking Evidence of Added Worth to School Psychology Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sassu, Kari A.; Gelbar, Nicholas W.; Bray, Melissa A.; Kehle, Thomas J.; Patwa, Shamim

2015-01-01

Historically, school psychological assessment has included the core elements of cognitive, academic, and behavioral indices. Neuropsychological assessment has included these and the additional elements of attention, memory, language, visual-spatial, motor, sensory, and executive functioning (American Psychological Association, 2006). With the…

Wolverine conservation and management.

Treesearch

L.F. Ruggiero; K.S. McKelvey; K.B. Aubry; J.P. Copeland; D.H. Pletscher; M.G. Hornocker

2007-01-01

This Special Section includes 8 peer-reviewed papers on the wolverine (Gulo gulo) in southern North America. These papers provide new information on current and historical distribution, habitat relations at multiple spatial scales, and interaction with humans. In aggregate, these papers substantially increase our knowledge of wolverine ecology and...

Wolverine conservation and management

Treesearch

Leonard F. Ruggiero; Kevin S. Mckelvey; Keith B. Aubry; Jeffrey P. Copeland; Daniel H. Pletscher; Maurice G. Hornocker

2007-01-01

This Special Section includes 8 peer-reviewed papers on the wolverine (Gulo gulo) in southern North America. These papers provide new information on current and historical distribution, habitat relations at multiple spatial scales, and interactions with humans. In aggregate, these papers substantially increase our knowledge of wolverine ecology and...

Long Creek Creek Mine Drainage Study: South Fork Reservation: Final Report

EPA Science Inventory

To characterize water quality in streams affected by historical mining it is necessary to determine the seasonal and spatial distribution patterns of trace metals concentrations. Identification of these patterns is used to identify the trace metals that are of ecological concern ...

Correlation between elevation change and groundwater level following the termination of salt exploitation in the city of Tuzla (BiH)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Stecchi, F.; Gabbianelli, G.

2012-04-01

Ground subsidence triggered by salt mining from deposits located beneath the city of Tuzla (Bosnia & Herzegovina) is one of the major dangerous factor acting on a very densely urbanized area since 1950, when the salt deposits exploitation by means of boreholes began. As demonstrated in previous work, subsidence induced several hazard factors such as a severe ground deformation, the arising of deep and superficial fractures and very fast water table fluctuations depending on the net amount of brine extraction. The historical ground deformation rates have been investigated by means of traditional geodetic surveys carried out within two periods. The first leg spans from 1956 to 1991, when measurements were ceased due to the Balkans' conflict, and the second from 1996 to 2003. More recently, the monitoring of ground deformation processes is being performed by the use of novel geomatic methodologies and subsequent analysis of geospatial data. The analysis of the historical dataset revealed a cumulative subsidence as high as 12 meters during the whole period, causing damage to buildings and infrastructures within an area that includes a large portion of the historical town, nowadays almost entirely destroyed. In this study we present a detailed analysis and correlation between the water table fluctuation under the city of Tuzla and recent surface deformation processes detected by close and accurate elevation surveys. The analysis highlighted a very complex spatial and temporal pattern of surface deformation. From 2006 and 2010 various stages in the deformation processes were observed in the spatial and temporal domains. The main subsidence trend show significant rates at the beginning of the time period, with gradual stabilization that, somewhere, turns to a significant ground uplift rate. This behavior seems to be strongly correlated to the water table movement that, after a reduction in the brine exploitation experienced in the first part of the mentioned period, shows a sudden rise of piezometric levels. The new hydrostatic equilibrium is now counterbalancing the sinking phenomena and the vertical displacements are nowadays ranging from -100mm/yr to +20mm/yr. Final conclusions focus on the strict relationship between the two investigated phenomena, pointing out the importance of control the water table movements to identify and prevent further ground deformations.

Evaluating the Role of Small Impoundments in Legacy Sediment Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, D. J.; Salant, N.; Green, M. B.; Wreschnig, A. J.; Urbanova, T.

2009-12-01

Recent research highlighting the prevalence of dams built for water power in the mid-1800s has led to suggestions that strategies for managing legacy sediment in the Eastern United States should be re-evaluated. However, the link between reach-scale observations of historic dam sites to processes at the catchment scale have not been examined, nor have the role of other, similar historic changes been evaluated. This presentation will compare dam dynamics, including mill density data and synthetic estimates of beaver populations with sedimentation rates recorded in sediment cores. If low-head dams were a dominant mechanism in sediment storage, we expect to see changes in sedimentation rates with the expatriation of the beaver and the rise and decline of water power. Further, we expect to see spatial variation in these changes as beaver and mill densities and potential sediment yield are spatially heterogeneous. Ultimately, dramatic changes in sediment yield due to land use and hydrological alterations likely drove sedimentation rates; the mechanistic importance of storage likely depends on temporal coincidence.

Spatial distribution and historical trends of heavy metals in the sediments of petroleum producing regions of the Beibu Gulf, China.

PubMed

Yang, Jichao; Wang, Weiguo; Zhao, Mengwei; Chen, Bin; Dada, Olusegun A; Chu, Zhihui

2015-02-15

The concentrations of As, Sb, Hg, Pb, Cd, and Ba in the surface and core sediments of the oil and gas producing region of the Beibu Gulf were measured by Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES), Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry (AFS), and the spatial distribution and historical trends of these elements are discussed. The results show that the concentrations of these elements are highest near the platforms. The results of Enrichment Factor (EF) and Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI) also reveal significantly higher enrichment around the platforms, which imply that the offshore petroleum production was the cause of the unusual distribution and severe enrichment of these elements in the study area. The environment around the platforms was highly laden with toxic elements, thereby representing a very high ecological risk to the environment of the study area. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical changes in pool habitats in the Columbia River basin

Treesearch

Bruce A. McIntosh; James R. Sedell; Russell F. Thurow; Sharon E. Clarke; Gwynn L. Chandler

2000-01-01

An historical stream survey (1934-1945) was compared with current surveys (1987-1997) to assess changes in pool frequencies in the Columbia River Basin. We surveyed 2267 km of 122 streams across the basin, representing a wide range of lithologies, stream sizes, land use histories, ownerships, and ecoregions. Based on pool classes inherited from the historical surveys,...

Historical open forest ecosystems in the Missouri Ozarks: reconstruction and restoration targets

Treesearch

Brice B. Hanberry; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; John M. Kabrick

2014-01-01

Current forests no longer resemble historical open forest ecosystems in the eastern United States. In the absence of representative forest ecosystems under a continuous surface fire regime at a large scale, reconstruction of historical landscapes can provide a reference for restoration efforts. For initial expert-assigned vegetation phases ranging from prairie to...

Historical (1860) forest structure in ponderosa pine forests of the northern Front Range, Colorado

Treesearch

Peter M. Brown; Michael A. Battaglia; Paula J. Fornwalt; Benjamin Gannon; Laurie S. Huckaby; Chad Julian; Antony S. Cheng

2015-01-01

Management of many dry conifer forests in western North America is focused on promoting resilience to future wildfires, climate change, and land use impacts through restoration of historical patterns of forest structure and disturbance processes. Historical structural data provide models for past resilient conditions that inform the design of silvicultural treatments...

The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

2014-05-01

In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (< 1.2 mm yr-1) due the water loading following the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. We construct two catalogues: one of published Holocene sea-level indicators and the other of published, modern growth rates, abundance and coverage of mangrove and coral species for different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

2012-04-04

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

A case study of field-scale maize irrigation patterns in western Nebraska: implications for water managers and recommendations for hyper-resolution land surface modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Justin; Franz, Trenton E.; Wang, Tiejun; Gates, John; Grassini, Patricio; Yang, Haishun; Eisenhauer, Dean

2017-02-01

In many agricultural regions, the human use of water for irrigation is often ignored or poorly represented in land surface models (LSMs) and operational forecasts. Because irrigation increases soil moisture, feedback on the surface energy balance, rainfall recycling, and atmospheric dynamics is not represented and may lead to reduced model skill. In this work, we describe four plausible and relatively simple irrigation routines that can be coupled to the next generation of hyper-resolution LSMs operating at scales of 1 km or less. The irrigation output from the four routines (crop model, precipitation delayed, evapotranspiration replacement, and vadose zone model) is compared against a historical field-scale irrigation database (2008-2014) from a 35 km2 study area under maize production and center pivot irrigation in western Nebraska (USA). We find that the most yield-conservative irrigation routine (crop model) produces seasonal totals of irrigation that compare well against the observed irrigation amounts across a range of wet and dry years but with a low bias of 80 mm yr-1. The most aggressive irrigation saving routine (vadose zone model) indicates a potential irrigation savings of 120 mm yr-1 and yield losses of less than 3 % against the crop model benchmark and historical averages. The results of the various irrigation routines and associated yield penalties will be valuable for future consideration by local water managers to be informed about the potential value of irrigation saving technologies and irrigation practices. Moreover, the routines offer the hyper-resolution LSM community a range of irrigation routines to better constrain irrigation decision-making at critical temporal (daily) and spatial scales (< 1 km).

Precipitation, landsliding, and erosion across the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Stephen G.; Wegmann, Karl W.

2018-01-01

In the Olympic Mountains of Washington State, landsliding is the primary surface process by which bedrock and hillslope regolith are delivered to river networks. However, the relative importance of large earthquakes versus high magnitude precipitation events to the total volume of landslide material transported to valley bottoms remains unknown in part due to the absence of large historical earthquakes. To test the hypothesis that erosion is linked to precipitation, approximately 1000 landslides were mapped from Google Earth imagery between 1990 and 2015 along a 15 km-wide × 85 km-long (1250 km2) swath across the range. The volume of hillslope material moved by each slide was calculated using previously published area-volume scaling relationships, and the spatial distribution of landslide volume was compared to mean annual precipitation data acquired from the PRISM climate group for the period 1981-2010. Statistical analysis reveals a significant correlation (r = 0.55; p < 0.001) between total landslide volume and mean annual precipitation, with 98% of landslide volume occurring along the windward, high-precipitation side of the range during the 25-year interval. Normalized to area, this volume yields a basin-wide erosion rate of 0.28 ± 0.11 mm yr- 1, which is similar to previous time-variable estimates of erosion throughout the Olympic Mountains, including those from river sediment yield, cosmogenic 10Be, fluvial terrace incision, and thermochronometry. The lack of large historic earthquakes makes it difficult to assess the relative contributions of precipitation and seismic shaking to total erosion, but our results suggest that climate, and more specifically a sharp precipitation gradient, plays an important role in controlling erosion and landscape evolution over both short and long timescales across the Olympic Mountains.

Systemic and intensifying drought induces collapse and replacement of native fishes: a time-series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhi, A.; Olden, J. D.; Sabo, J. L.

2015-12-01

In the American Southwest, hydrologic drought has become a new normal as a result of increasing human appropriation of freshwater resources and increased aridity associated with global warming. Although drought has often been touted to threaten freshwater biodiversity, connecting drought to extinction risk of highly-imperiled faunas remains a challenge. Here we combine time-series methods from signal processing and econometrics to analyze a spatially comprehensive and long-term dataset to link discharge variation and community abundance of fish across the American Southwest. This novel time series framework identifies ongoing trends in daily discharge anomalies across the Southwest, quantifies the effect of the historical hydrologic drivers on fish community abundance, and allows us to simulate species trajectories and range-wide risk of decline (quasiextinction) under scenarios of future climate. Spectral anomalies are declining over the last 30 years in at least a quarter of the stream gaging stations across the American Southwest and these anomalies are robust predictors of historical abundance of native and non-native fishes. Quasiextinction probabilities are high (>50 %) for nearly ¾ of the native species across several large river basins in the same region; and the negative trend in annual anomalies increases quasiextinction risk for native but reduces this risk for non-native fishes. These findings suggest that ongoing drought is causing range-wide collapse and replacement of native fish faunas, and that this homogenization of western fish faunas will continue given the prevailing negative trend in discharge anomalies. Additionally, this combination of methods can be applied elsewhere as long as environmental and biological long-term time-series data are available. Collectively, these methods allow identifying the link between hydroclimatic forcing and ecological responses and thus may help anticipating the potential impacts of ongoing and future hydrologic extremes in freshwater ecosystems.

Simulation of Current and Projected Montane Snowpacks for the Preservation of the Wolverine in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heldmyer, A.; Livneh, B.; Barsugli, J. J.; Dewes, C.; Ray, A. J.; Rangwala, I.; Guinotte, J. M.; Torbit, S.

2017-12-01

A major gap in research on the future of snowpack in the western United States is accounting for snow persistence in relation to topographical effects like terrain aspect and slope, which have important consequences for species that rely on snow for habitat in alpine regions, such as the wolverine (Gulo gulo). Previous work has shown a predicted loss of snow-covered area in Montana (which encompasses much of the Wolverine's extent range) ranging from 50 - 85%. However, these estimates use coarse model grid-boxes (6 - 12 km per side) that lack topographic shading, with mean elevations below the higher elevations where the wolverine tends to live. We address these informational gaps by applying a physically-based, high-resolution hydrologic model (250 m spatial resolution), the Distributed Hydrologic Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM), to project snow water equivalent (SWE) in two regions important to the survival of the wolverine within Glacier and Rocky Mountain National Parks. Because snowpack evolution is driven primarily by the energy balance at the surface, particularly during melt season, the inclusion of a realistic, physically-based energy balance together with topographic shading enables a clearer understanding of how projected climatic perturbations will affect future snowpack. We apply a diverse sample of future (2035-2064) climate conditions from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) to meteorological forcing data from a baseline historical period (1998-2013) through the delta method, after validating historical simulations with SNOTEL and MODIS satellite data. Despite considerable variability across models, the results show a consistent decrease in Snow-Covered Area (SCA) across investigated future climate projections, an increased loss of snowpack during years of drought, and a fragmentation of land with deep snow available for refuge.

Evapotranspiration based on equilibrated relative humidity (ETRHEQ): Evaluation over the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigden, Angela J.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2015-04-01

A novel method of estimating evapotranspiration (ET), referred to as the ETRHEQ method, is further developed, validated, and applied across the U.S. from 1961 to 2010. The ETRHEQ method estimates the surface conductance to water vapor transport, which is the key rate-limiting parameter of typical ET models, by choosing the surface conductance that minimizes the vertical variance of the calculated relative humidity profile averaged over the day. The ETRHEQ method, which was previously tested at five AmeriFlux sites, is modified for use at common weather stations and further validated at 20 AmeriFlux sites that span a wide range of climates and limiting factors. Averaged across all sites, the daily latent heat flux RMSE is ˜26 W·m-2 (or 15%). The method is applied across the U.S. at 305 weather stations and spatially interpolated using ANUSPLIN software. Gridded annual mean ETRHEQ ET estimates are compared with four data sets, including water balance-derived ET, machine-learning ET estimates based on FLUXNET data, North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ET, and a benchmark product that integrates 14 global ET data sets, with RMSEs ranging from 8.7 to 12.5 cm·yr-1. The ETRHEQ method relies only on data measured at weather stations, an estimate of vegetation height derived from land cover maps, and an estimate of soil thermal inertia. These data requirements allow it to have greater spatial coverage than direct measurements, greater historical coverage than satellite methods, significantly less parameter specification than most land surface models, and no requirement for calibration.

Pest and Disease Management: Why We Shouldn't Go against the Grain

PubMed Central

Skelsey, Peter; With, Kimberly A.; Garrett, Karen A.

2013-01-01

Given the wide range of scales and mechanisms by which pest or disease agents disperse, it is unclear whether there might exist a general relationship between scale of host heterogeneity and spatial spread that could be exploited by available management options. In this model-based study, we investigate the interaction between host distributions and the spread of pests and diseases using an array of models that encompass the dispersal and spread of a diverse range of economically important species: a major insect pest of coniferous forests in western North America, the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae); the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae, one of the most-widespread and best-studied bacterial plant pathogens; the mosquito Culex erraticus, an important vector for many human and animal pathogens, including West Nile Virus; and the oomycete Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of potato late blight. Our model results reveal an interesting general phenomenon: a unimodal (‘humpbacked’) relationship in the magnitude of infestation (an index of dispersal or population spread) with increasing grain size (i.e., the finest scale of patchiness) in the host distribution. Pest and disease management strategies targeting different aspects of host pattern (e.g., abundance, aggregation, isolation, quality) modified the shape of this relationship, but not the general unimodal form. This is a previously unreported effect that provides insight into the spatial scale at which management interventions are most likely to be successful, which, notably, do not always match the scale corresponding to maximum infestation. Our findings could provide a new basis for explaining historical outbreak events, and have implications for biosecurity and public health preparedness. PMID:24098739

Pest and disease management: why we shouldn't go against the grain.

PubMed

Skelsey, Peter; With, Kimberly A; Garrett, Karen A

2013-01-01

Given the wide range of scales and mechanisms by which pest or disease agents disperse, it is unclear whether there might exist a general relationship between scale of host heterogeneity and spatial spread that could be exploited by available management options. In this model-based study, we investigate the interaction between host distributions and the spread of pests and diseases using an array of models that encompass the dispersal and spread of a diverse range of economically important species: a major insect pest of coniferous forests in western North America, the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae); the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae, one of the most-widespread and best-studied bacterial plant pathogens; the mosquito Culex erraticus, an important vector for many human and animal pathogens, including West Nile Virus; and the oomycete Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of potato late blight. Our model results reveal an interesting general phenomenon: a unimodal ('humpbacked') relationship in the magnitude of infestation (an index of dispersal or population spread) with increasing grain size (i.e., the finest scale of patchiness) in the host distribution. Pest and disease management strategies targeting different aspects of host pattern (e.g., abundance, aggregation, isolation, quality) modified the shape of this relationship, but not the general unimodal form. This is a previously unreported effect that provides insight into the spatial scale at which management interventions are most likely to be successful, which, notably, do not always match the scale corresponding to maximum infestation. Our findings could provide a new basis for explaining historical outbreak events, and have implications for biosecurity and public health preparedness.

Fly Ash as a Time Marker for Anthropocene Alluvial Sedimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettis, E. A., III; Grimley, D. A.; Anders, A. M.; Bates, B.; Hannan, E.

2014-12-01

Human land use has transformed the landscapes, ecosystems and hydrology of the North American Midcontinent. One widespread impact of this transformation is increased runoff and accelerated soil erosion, which, along with direct human channel modifications and artificial drainage, have dramatically altered hydrologic and ecological conditions in streams and rivers with far-reaching results. A legacy of this change in streams and rivers is preserved on floodplains throughout the region in sediment known as post-settlement alluvium (PSA). Documenting the spatial and temporal pattern of historic floodplain sedimentation in the drainage network is part of a larger effort to understand decadal and century-scale sediment routing through the drainage system and the role of floodplain sedimentation in carbon sequestration. Fly ash, a product of high-temperature coal combustion, began to accumulate on the landscape in the early historic period (c.a.1840-1850 in Iowa and Illinois) as coal-burning technology such as steam engines came into use after 1850; prior to which no source of fly ash was present. Release of fly ash from coal burning in power plants and steam locomotives likely peaked in the early-mid 20th century. Fly ash particles (~ 1 to 10 % magnetic) are identified by their spheroidal shape and range in size from coarse clay to silt (~1-63µ). By identifying the percentage of fly ash spheroids in the magnetic separate (10 - 60µ size range) of a soil or sediment profile, the pre-fly ash Historic surface could be discerned. Application of this technique in selected localities in eastern Iowa (Clear Creek drainage) and central Illinois (Sangamon River drainage) resulted in successful demarcation of the PSA contact in areas where the boundary was physically evident. Bolstered by this success we were able to confidently demark the PSA contact in other settings where the boundary was not as physically evident. This relatively easy to implement, inexpensive tool will provide us with critical ground truth data for understanding long-term sediment movement through drainage basins and for modelling landscape evolution during the Anthropocene.

Integrating fossils, phylogenies, and niche models into biogeography to reveal ancient evolutionary history: the case of Hypericum (hypericaceae).

PubMed

Meseguer, Andrea S; Lobo, Jorge M; Ree, Richard; Beerling, David J; Sanmartín, Isabel

2015-03-01

In disciplines such as macroevolution that are not amenable to experimentation, scientists usually rely on current observations to test hypotheses about historical events, assuming that "the present is the key to the past." Biogeographers, for example, used this assumption to reconstruct ancestral ranges from the distribution of extant species. Yet, under scenarios of high extinction rates, the biodiversity we observe today might not be representative of the historical diversity and this could result in incorrect biogeographic reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new approach to incorporate into biogeographic inference the temporal, spatial, and environmental information provided by the fossil record, as a direct evidence of the extinct biodiversity fraction. First, inferences of ancestral ranges for those nodes in the phylogeny calibrated with the fossil record are constrained to include the geographic distribution of the fossil. Second, we use fossil distribution and past climate data to reconstruct the climatic preferences and potential distribution of ancestral lineages over time, and use this information to build a biogeographic model that takes into account "ecological connectivity" through time. To show the power of this approach, we reconstruct the biogeographic history of the large angiosperm genus Hypericum, which has a fossil record extending back to the Early Cenozoic. Unlike previous reconstructions based on extant species distributions, our results reveal that Hypericum stem lineages were already distributed in the Holarctic before diversification of its crown-group, and that the geographic distribution of the genus has been relatively stable throughout the climatic oscillations of the Cenozoic. Geographical movement was mediated by the existence of climatic corridors, like Beringia, whereas the equatorial tropical belt acted as a climatic barrier, preventing Hypericum lineages to reach the southern temperate regions. Our study shows that an integrative approach to historical biogeography-that combines sources of evidence as diverse as paleontology, ecology, and phylogenetics-could help us obtain more accurate reconstructions of ancient evolutionary history. It also reveals the confounding effect different rates of extinction across regions have in biogeography, sometimes leading to ancestral areas being erroneously inferred as recent colonization events. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Integrating Fossils, Phylogenies, and Niche Models into Biogeography to Reveal Ancient Evolutionary History: The Case of Hypericum (Hypericaceae)

PubMed Central

Meseguer, Andrea S.; Lobo, Jorge M.; Ree, Richard; Beerling, David J.; Sanmartín, Isabel

2015-01-01

In disciplines such as macroevolution that are not amenable to experimentation, scientists usually rely on current observations to test hypotheses about historical events, assuming that “the present is the key to the past.” Biogeographers, for example, used this assumption to reconstruct ancestral ranges from the distribution of extant species. Yet, under scenarios of high extinction rates, the biodiversity we observe today might not be representative of the historical diversity and this could result in incorrect biogeographic reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new approach to incorporate into biogeographic inference the temporal, spatial, and environmental information provided by the fossil record, as a direct evidence of the extinct biodiversity fraction. First, inferences of ancestral ranges for those nodes in the phylogeny calibrated with the fossil record are constrained to include the geographic distribution of the fossil. Second, we use fossil distribution and past climate data to reconstruct the climatic preferences and potential distribution of ancestral lineages over time, and use this information to build a biogeographic model that takes into account “ecological connectivity” through time. To show the power of this approach, we reconstruct the biogeographic history of the large angiosperm genus Hypericum, which has a fossil record extending back to the Early Cenozoic. Unlike previous reconstructions based on extant species distributions, our results reveal that Hypericum stem lineages were already distributed in the Holarctic before diversification of its crown-group, and that the geographic distribution of the genus has been relatively stable throughout the climatic oscillations of the Cenozoic. Geographical movement was mediated by the existence of climatic corridors, like Beringia, whereas the equatorial tropical belt acted as a climatic barrier, preventing Hypericum lineages to reach the southern temperate regions. Our study shows that an integrative approach to historical biogeography—that combines sources of evidence as diverse as paleontology, ecology, and phylogenetics—could help us obtain more accurate reconstructions of ancient evolutionary history. It also reveals the confounding effect different rates of extinction across regions have in biogeography, sometimes leading to ancestral areas being erroneously inferred as recent colonization events. PMID:25398444

Status and conservation of interior Redband Trout in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Albeke, Shannon E.; Gunckel, Stephanie L; Writer, Benjamin J; Shepard, Bradley B.; May, Bruce E

2015-01-01

In this article we describe the current status and conservation of interior (potamodromous) Redband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss sspp. throughout its range in the western United States using extant data and expert opinion provided by fish managers. Redband Trout historically occupied 60,295 km of stream habitat and 152 natural lakes. Currently, Redband Trout occupy 25,417 km of stream habitat (42% of their historical range) and 124 lakes or reservoirs. Nonhybridized populations are assumed to occupy 11,695 km (46%) of currently occupied streams; however, fish from only 4,473 km (18%) have been genetically tested. Approximately 47% of the streams occupied by Redband Trout occur on private land, 45% on government lands, and 8% in protected areas. A total of 210 Redband Trout populations, occupying 15,252 km of stream habitat (60% of the current distribution) and 95,158 ha of lake habitat (52%), are being managed as “conservation populations.” Most conservation populations have been designated as weakly to strongly connected metapopulations (125; 60%) and occupy much more stream length (14,112 km; 93%) than isolated conservation populations (1,141 km; 7%). The primary threats to Redband Trout include invasive species, habitat degradation and fragmentation, and climate change. Although the historical distribution of interior Redband Trout has declined dramatically, we conclude that the species is not currently at imminent risk of extinction because it is still widely distributed with many populations isolated by physical barriers and active conservation efforts are occurring for many populations. However, the hybridization status of many populations has not been well quantified, and introgression may be more prevalent than documented here. We recommend (1) collecting additional genetic data and estimating distribution and abundance by means of a more rigorous spatial sampling design to reduce uncertainties, (2) collecting additional information to assess and predict the impacts of climate on populations, and (3) continuing to use this database to evaluate the status of Redband Trout and inform conservation efforts through time.

Ecological effects of the Hayman Fire - Part 1: Historical (pre-1860) and current (1860-2002) fire regimes

Treesearch

William H. Romme; Thomas T. Veblen; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Rosemary Sherriff; Claudia M. Regan

2003-01-01

To address historical and current fire regimes in the Hayman landscape, we first present the concepts of “historical range of variability” and ”fire regime” to provide the necessary conceptual tools for evaluating fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire effects. Next we summarize historical (pre-1860) fire frequency and fire effects for the major forest types of the...

Documenting Biogeographical Patterns of African Timber Species Using Herbarium Records: A Conservation Perspective Based on Native Trees from Angola

PubMed Central

Romeiras, Maria M.; Figueira, Rui; Duarte, Maria Cristina; Beja, Pedro; Darbyshire, Iain

2014-01-01

In many tropical regions the development of informed conservation strategies is hindered by a dearth of biodiversity information. Biological collections can help to overcome this problem, by providing baseline information to guide research and conservation efforts. This study focuses on the timber trees of Angola, combining herbarium (2670 records) and bibliographic data to identify the main timber species, document biogeographic patterns and identify conservation priorities. The study recognized 18 key species, most of which are threatened or near-threatened globally, or lack formal conservation assessments. Biogeographical analysis reveals three groups of species associated with the enclave of Cabinda and northwest Angola, which occur primarily in Guineo-Congolian rainforests, and evergreen forests and woodlands. The fourth group is widespread across the country, and is mostly associated with dry forests. There is little correspondence between the spatial pattern of species groups and the ecoregions adopted by WWF, suggesting that these may not provide an adequate basis for conservation planning for Angolan timber trees. Eight of the species evaluated should be given high conservation priority since they are of global conservation concern, they have very restricted distributions in Angola, their historical collection localities are largely outside protected areas and they may be under increasing logging pressure. High conservation priority was also attributed to another three species that have a large proportion of their global range concentrated in Angola and that occur in dry forests where deforestation rates are high. Our results suggest that timber tree species in Angola may be under increasing risk, thus calling for efforts to promote their conservation and sustainable exploitation. The study also highlights the importance of studying historic herbarium collections in poorly explored regions of the tropics, though new field surveys remain a priority to update historical information. PMID:25061858

Documenting biogeographical patterns of African timber species using herbarium records: a conservation perspective based on native trees from Angola.

PubMed

Romeiras, Maria M; Figueira, Rui; Duarte, Maria Cristina; Beja, Pedro; Darbyshire, Iain

2014-01-01

In many tropical regions the development of informed conservation strategies is hindered by a dearth of biodiversity information. Biological collections can help to overcome this problem, by providing baseline information to guide research and conservation efforts. This study focuses on the timber trees of Angola, combining herbarium (2670 records) and bibliographic data to identify the main timber species, document biogeographic patterns and identify conservation priorities. The study recognized 18 key species, most of which are threatened or near-threatened globally, or lack formal conservation assessments. Biogeographical analysis reveals three groups of species associated with the enclave of Cabinda and northwest Angola, which occur primarily in Guineo-Congolian rainforests, and evergreen forests and woodlands. The fourth group is widespread across the country, and is mostly associated with dry forests. There is little correspondence between the spatial pattern of species groups and the ecoregions adopted by WWF, suggesting that these may not provide an adequate basis for conservation planning for Angolan timber trees. Eight of the species evaluated should be given high conservation priority since they are of global conservation concern, they have very restricted distributions in Angola, their historical collection localities are largely outside protected areas and they may be under increasing logging pressure. High conservation priority was also attributed to another three species that have a large proportion of their global range concentrated in Angola and that occur in dry forests where deforestation rates are high. Our results suggest that timber tree species in Angola may be under increasing risk, thus calling for efforts to promote their conservation and sustainable exploitation. The study also highlights the importance of studying historic herbarium collections in poorly explored regions of the tropics, though new field surveys remain a priority to update historical information.

Sensitivity of ground - water recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, John J.

1992-01-01

The sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates was investigated for the semiarid Ellensburg basin, located on the Columbia Plateau, Washington, to historic and projected climatic regimes. Recharge was estimated for predevelopment and current (1980s) land use conditions using a daily energy-soil-water balance model. A synthetic daily weather generator was used to simulate lengthy sequences with parameters estimated from subsets of the historical record that were unusually wet and unusually dry. Comparison of recharge estimates corresponding to relatively wet and dry periods showed that recharge for predevelopment land use varies considerably within the range of climatic conditions observed in the 87-year historical observation period. Recharge variations for present land use conditions were less sensitive to the same range of historical climatic conditions because of irrigation. The estimated recharge based on the 87-year historical climatology was compared with adjustments to the historical precipitation and temperature records for the same record to reflect CO2-doubling climates as projected by general circulation models (GCMs). Two GCM scenarios were considered: an average of conditions for three different GCMs with CO2 doubling, and a most severe “maximum” case. For the average GCM scenario, predevelopment recharge increased, and current recharge decreased. Also considered was the sensitivity of recharge to the variability of climate within the historical and adjusted historical records. Predevelopment and current recharge were less and more sensitive, respectively, to the climate variability for the average GCM scenario as compared to the variability within the historical record. For the maximum GCM scenario, recharge for both predevelopment and current land use decreased, and the sensitivity to the CO2-related climate change was larger than sensitivity to the variability in the historical and adjusted historical climate records.

Influence of fluctuations of historic water bodies on fault stability and earthquake recurrence interval: The Dead Sea Rift as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belferman, Mariana; Katsman, Regina; Agnon, Amotz; Ben-Avraham, Zvi

2017-04-01

Despite the global, social and scientific impact of earthquakes, their triggering mechanisms remain often poorly defined. We suggest that dynamic changes in the levels of the historic water bodies occupying tectonic depressions at the Dead Sea Rift cause significant variations in the shallow crustal stress field and affect local fault systems in a way that may promote or suppress earthquakes. This mechanism and its spatial and temporal scales differ from those in tectonically-driven deformations. We use analytical and numerical poroelastic models to simulate immediate and delayed seismic responses resulting from the observed historic water level changes. The role of variability in the poroelastic and the elastic properties of the rocks composing the upper crust in inducing or retarding deformations under a strike-slip faulting regime is studied. The solution allows estimating a possible reduction in a seismic recurrence interval. Considering the historic water level fluctuation, our preliminary simulations show a promising agreement with paleo-seismic rates identified in the field.

Examining differences between recovered and declining endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Abbitt, Robbyn J.F.; Scott, J. Michael

2001-01-01

Between 1973 and 1999, 43 species in the United States were reclassified from endangered to threatened or removed entirely from the Endangered Species List. Of these, 23 were identified as recovered. In 1999 the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ( USFWS) published a list of 33 additional species for possible reclassification and/or delisting. We initiated this study to examine why some endangered species recover but others continue to decline and to identify differences in management activities between these two groups. We defined recovered/recovering species as previously recovered species and the additional recovered/recovering species listed by the USFWS. We defined declining species as those identified as declining in the most recent USFWS Report to Congress. Information on recovered/recovering and declining species was gathered from relevant literature, recovery plans, U.S. Federal Register documents, and individuals responsible for the recovery management of each species. We used this information to examine (1) the percentage of current and historic range covered by management activities; (2) threats affecting the species; (3) population sizes at the time of listing; (4) current versus historic range size; and (5) percentage of recovery management objectives completed. Although few statistical analyses provided significant results, those that did suggest the following differences between recovered/recovering and declining species: (1) recovered/recovering species face threats that are easier to address; (2) recovered/recovering species occupy a greater percentage of their historic range; and (3) recovered/recovering species have a greater percentage of their recovery management objectives completed. Those species with threats easier to address and that occupy a greater percentage of their historic range are recovered/recovering. In contrast, declining species face threats more difficult to address and occupy significantly less of their historic range. If this remains true, future species recovery may require more time and resources.

Multiscale Framework for Assessing Critical Loads of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition for Aquatic Ecosystems in Wilderness Areas of the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanus, Leora; Clow, David; Saros, Jasmine; McMurray, Jill; Blett, Tamara; Sickman, James

2017-04-01

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems in Wilderness areas of the western United States are impacted by current and historic atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition associated with local and regional air pollution. Documented effects include elevated surface water nitrate concentrations, increased algal productivity, and changes in diatom species assemblages. A predictive framework was developed for sensitive high-elevation basins across the western United States at multiple spatial scales including the Rocky Mountain Region (Rockies), the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), and Yosemite (YOSE) and Sequoia & Kings Canyon (SEKI) National Parks. Spatial trends in critical loads of N deposition for nutrient enrichment of aquatic ecosystems were quantified and mapped using a geostatistical approach, with modeled N deposition, topography, vegetation, geology, and climate as potential explanatory variables. Multiple predictive models were created using various combinations of explanatory variables; this approach allowed for better quantification of uncertainty and identification of areas most sensitive to high atmospheric N deposition (> 3 kg N ha-1 yr-1). For multiple spatial scales, the lowest critical loads estimates (<1.5 + 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) occurred in high-elevation basins with steep slopes, sparse vegetation, and exposed bedrock and talus. Based on a nitrate threshold of 1 μmol L-1, estimated critical load exceedances (>1.5 + 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) correspond with areas of high N deposition and vary spatially ranging from less than 20% to over 40% of the study area for the Rockies, GYA, YOSE, and SEKI. These predictive models and maps identify sensitive aquatic ecosystems that may be impacted by excess atmospheric N deposition and can be used to help protect against future anthropogenic disturbance. The approach presented here may be transferable to other remote and protected high-elevation ecosystems at multiple spatial scales that are sensitive to adverse effects of pollutant loading in the US and around the world.

Historical Patterns and Drivers of Spatial Changes in Recreational Fishing Activity in Puget Sound, Washington

PubMed Central

Beaudreau, Anne H.; Whitney, Emily J.

2016-01-01

Small-scale fisheries are the primary users of many coastal fish stocks; yet, spatial and temporal patterns of recreational and subsistence fishing in coastal marine ecosystems are poorly documented. Knowledge about the spatial distribution of fishing activities can inform place-based management that balances species conservation with opportunities for recreation and subsistence. We used a participatory mapping approach to document changes in spatial fishing patterns of 80 boat-based recreational anglers from 1950 to 2010 in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Hand-drawn fishing areas for salmon, rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs were digitized and analyzed in a Geographic Information System. We found that recreational fishing has spanned the majority of Puget Sound since the 1950s, with the heaviest use limited to small areas of central and northern Puget Sound. People are still fishing in the same places they were decades ago, with relatively little change in specific locations despite widespread declines in salmon and bottomfish populations during the second half of the 20th century. While the location of core fishing areas remained consistent, the size of those areas and intensity of use changed over time. The size of fishing areas increased through the 2000s for salmon but declined after the 1970s and 1980s for rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs. Our results suggest that the spatial extent of recreational bottomfishing increased after the 1960s, when the availability of motorized vessels and advanced fish-finding technologies allowed anglers to expand their scope beyond localized angling from piers and boathouses. Respondents offered a wide range of reasons for shifts in fishing areas over time, reflecting substantial individual variation in motivations and behaviors. Changes in fishing areas were most commonly attributed to changes in residence and declines in target species and least tied to fishery regulations, despite the implementation of at least 25 marine preserves since 1970. PMID:27054890

Historical Patterns and Drivers of Spatial Changes in Recreational Fishing Activity in Puget Sound, Washington.

PubMed

Beaudreau, Anne H; Whitney, Emily J

2016-01-01

Small-scale fisheries are the primary users of many coastal fish stocks; yet, spatial and temporal patterns of recreational and subsistence fishing in coastal marine ecosystems are poorly documented. Knowledge about the spatial distribution of fishing activities can inform place-based management that balances species conservation with opportunities for recreation and subsistence. We used a participatory mapping approach to document changes in spatial fishing patterns of 80 boat-based recreational anglers from 1950 to 2010 in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Hand-drawn fishing areas for salmon, rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs were digitized and analyzed in a Geographic Information System. We found that recreational fishing has spanned the majority of Puget Sound since the 1950s, with the heaviest use limited to small areas of central and northern Puget Sound. People are still fishing in the same places they were decades ago, with relatively little change in specific locations despite widespread declines in salmon and bottomfish populations during the second half of the 20th century. While the location of core fishing areas remained consistent, the size of those areas and intensity of use changed over time. The size of fishing areas increased through the 2000s for salmon but declined after the 1970s and 1980s for rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs. Our results suggest that the spatial extent of recreational bottomfishing increased after the 1960s, when the availability of motorized vessels and advanced fish-finding technologies allowed anglers to expand their scope beyond localized angling from piers and boathouses. Respondents offered a wide range of reasons for shifts in fishing areas over time, reflecting substantial individual variation in motivations and behaviors. Changes in fishing areas were most commonly attributed to changes in residence and declines in target species and least tied to fishery regulations, despite the implementation of at least 25 marine preserves since 1970.

A Spatially-Explicit Modeling Approach to Examine the Interaction of Reproductive Traits and Landscape Characteristics on Arctic Shrub Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naito, A. T.; Cairns, D. M.; Feldman, R. M.; Grant, W. E.

2014-12-01

Shrub expansion is one of the most recognized components of terrestrial Arctic change. While experimental work has provided valuable insights into its fine-scale drivers and implications, the contribution of shrub reproductive characteristics to their spatial patterns is poorly understood at broader scales. Building upon our previous work in river valleys in northern Alaska, we developed a C#-based spatially-explicit model that simulates historic landscape-scale shrub establishment between the 1970s and the late 2000s on a yearly time-step while accounting for parameters relating to different reproduction modes (clonal development with and without the "mass effect" and short-distance dispersal), as well as the presence and absence of the interaction of hydrologic constraints using the topographic wetness index. We examined these treatments on floodplains, valley slopes, and interfluves in the Ayiyak, Colville, and Kurupa River valleys. After simulating 30 landscape realizations using each parameter combination, we quantified the spatial characteristics (patch density, edge density, patch size variability, area-weighted shape index, area-weighted fractal dimension index, and mean distance between patches) of the resulting shrub patches on the simulation end date using FRAGSTATS. We used Principal Components Analysis to determine which treatments produced spatial characteristics most similar to those observed in the late 2000s. Based upon our results, we hypothesize that historic shrub expansion in northern Alaska has been driven in part by clonal reproduction with the "mass effect" or short-distance dispersal (< 5 m). The interactive effect of hydrologic characteristics, however, is less clear. These hypotheses may then be tested in future work involving field observations. Given the potential that climate change may facilitate a shift from a clonal to a sexual reproductive strategy, this model may facilitate predictions regarding future Arctic vegetation patterns.

The Schaake shuffle: A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, M.R.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Hay, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Wilby, R.

2004-01-01

A number of statistical methods that are used to provide local-scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature do not contain realistic spatial covariability between neighboring stations or realistic temporal persistence for subsequent forecast lead times. To demonstrate this point, output from a global-scale numerical weather prediction model is used in a stepwise multiple linear regression approach to downscale precipitation and temperature to individual stations located in and around four study basins in the United States. Output from the forecast model is downscaled for lead times up to 14 days. Residuals in the regression equation are modeled stochastically to provide 100 ensemble forecasts. The precipitation and temperature ensembles from this approach have a poor representation of the spatial variability and temporal persistence. The spatial correlations for downscaled output are considerably lower than observed spatial correlations at short forecast lead times (e.g., less than 5 days) when there is high accuracy in the forecasts. At longer forecast lead times, the downscaled spatial correlations are close to zero. Similarly, the observed temporal persistence is only partly present at short forecast lead times. A method is presented for reordering the ensemble output in order to recover the space-time variability in precipitation and temperature fields. In this approach, the ensemble members for a given forecast day are ranked and matched with the rank of precipitation and temperature data from days randomly selected from similar dates in the historical record. The ensembles are then reordered to correspond to the original order of the selection of historical data. Using this approach, the observed intersite correlations, intervariable correlations, and the observed temporal persistence are almost entirely recovered. This reordering methodology also has applications for recovering the space-time variability in modeled streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records

PubMed Central

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Abstract The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation. PMID:27408548

Reconstructing the historical distribution of the Amur Leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in Northeast China based on historical records.

PubMed

Yang, Li; Huang, Mujiao; Zhang, Rui; Lv, Jiang; Ren, Yueheng; Jiang, Zhe; Zhang, Wei; Luan, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

The range of the Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) has decreased dramatically over the last 100 years. This species is still under extreme risk of extinction and conservation efforts are rigorous. Understanding the long-term dynamics of the population decline would be helpful to offer insight into the mechanism behind the decline and endangerment and improve conservation perspectives and strategies. Historical data collection has been the challenge for reconstructing the historical distribution. In China, new gazetteers having systematic compilation and considerable local ecological data can be considered as an important complementary for reconstruction. Therefore, we have set up a data set (mainly based on the new gazetteers) in order to identify the historical range of the Amur Leopard from the 1950s to 2014. The result shows that the Amur leopard was historically widely distributed with large populations in Northeastern China, but it presented a sharp decline after the 1970s. The decline appeared from the plains to the mountains and northeast to southwest since the 1950s. Long-term historical data, mainly from new gazetteers, demonstrates that such resources are capable of tracking species change through time and offers an opportunity to reduce data shortage and enhance understanding in conservation.

Integrated approach to monitor water dynamics with drones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymaekers, Dries; De Keukelaere, Liesbeth; Knaeps, Els; Strackx, Gert; Decrop, Boudewijn; Bollen, Mark

2017-04-01

Remote sensing has been used for more than 20 years to estimate water quality in the open ocean and study the evolution of vegetation on land. More recently big improvements have been made to extend these practices to coastal and inland waters, opening new monitoring opportunities, eg. monitoring the impact of dredging activities on the aquatic environment. While satellite sensors can provide complete coverage and historical information of the study area, they are limited in their temporal revisit time and spatial resolution. Therefore, deployment of drones can create an added value and in combination with satellite information increase insights in the dynamics and actors of coastal and aquatic systems. Drones have the advantages of monitoring at high spatial detail (cm scale), with high frequency and are flexible. One of the important water quality parameters is the suspended sediment concentration. However, retrieving sediment concentrations from unmanned systems is a challenging task. The sediment dynamics in the port of Breskens, the Netherlands, were investigated by combining information retrieved from different data sources: satellite, drone and in-situ data were collected, analysed and inserted in sediment models. As such, historical (satellite), near-real time (drone) and predictive (sediment models) information, integrated in a spatial data infrastructure, allow to perform data analysis and can support decision makers.

Temporal-Spatial Patterns of Natural Disaster and Societal Impact in Historical China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Studies pertinent to the relationship between climate change and human society in historical China from both temporal and spatial perspectives are extremely rare at present. In this research, panel data on natural disasters (flood and drought) and their societal impacts (famine, cannibalism, war and the variation of population density) at provincial and decadal scales during 1-1910 AD were applied to mathematical statistics such as correlation, regression and Granger causality analysis as well as raster overlay and spatial visualization. Results show that generally there is high consistency among different variables and most of them cluster in eastern part of China, especially in the north. More in-depth examinations indicate that drought is the primary contributor to famine and cannibalism compared with flood, whatever in time and space domain; whilst severe even out-of-control famine (i.e. cannibalism) is more likely to incur war than ordinary famine per se. Also, the pivotal role of population in the nexus of meteorological catastrophes and human miseries is affirmed that population is not only affected by natural calamities and social disorder but also exerts its effect on war. Our findings may lay the foundation for further insightful probes in scientific community and provide some implications for contemporary policymakers with respect to climatic anomalies-induced social crises in the future.

Historical and ecological drivers of the spatial pattern of Chondrichthyes species richness in the Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Meléndez, María José; Báez, José Carlos; Serna-Quintero, José Miguel; Camiñas, Juan Antonio; Fernández, Ignacio de Loyola; Real, Raimundo; Macías, David

2017-01-01

Chondrichthyes, which include Elasmobranchii (sharks and batoids) and Holocephali (chimaeras), are a relatively small group in the Mediterranean Sea (89 species) playing a key role in the ecosystems where they are found. At present, many species of this group are threatened as a result of anthropogenic effects, including fishing activity. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of these species is of great importance to understand their ecological role and for the efficient management of their populations, particularly if affected by fisheries. This study aims to analyze the spatial patterns of the distribution of Chondrichthyes species richness in the Mediterranean Sea. Information provided by the studied countries was used to model geographical and ecological variables affecting the Chondrichthyes species richness. The species were distributed in 16 Operational Geographical Units (OGUs), derived from the Geographical Sub-Areas (GSA) adopted by the General Fisheries Commission of the Mediterranean Sea (GFCM). Regression analyses with the species richness as a target variable were adjusted with a set of environmental and geographical variables, being the model that links richness of Chondrichthyes species with distance to the Strait of Gibraltar and number of taxonomic families of bony fishes the one that best explains it. This suggests that both historical and ecological factors affect the current distribution of Chondrichthyes within the Mediterranean Sea.

Historical and contemporary geographic data reveal complex spatial and temporal responses of vegetation to climate and land stewardship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel L.; Norman, Laura M.; Webb, Robert H.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Vegetation and land-cover changes are not always directional but follow complex trajectories over space and time, driven by changing anthropogenic and abiotic conditions. We present a multi-observational approach to land-change analysis that addresses the complex geographic and temporal variability of vegetation changes related to climate and land use. Using land-ownership data as a proxy for land-use practices, multitemporal land-cover maps, and repeat photography dating to the late 19th century, we examine changing spatial and temporal distributions of two vegetation types with high conservation value in the southwestern United States: grasslands and riparian vegetation. In contrast to many reported vegetation changes, notably shrub encroachment in desert grasslands, we found an overall increase in grassland area and decline of xeroriparian and riparian vegetation. These observed change patterns were neither temporally directional nor spatially uniform over the landscape. Historical data suggest that long-term vegetation changes coincide with broad climate fluctuations while fine-scale patterns are determined by land-management practices. In some cases, restoration and active management appear to weaken the effects of climate on vegetation; therefore, if land managers in this region act in accord with on-going directional changes, the current drought and associated ecological reorganization may provide an opportunity to achieve desired restoration endpoints.

The Documentation of Historic Maps of World Heritage Site City Suzhou

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guangwei, Z.

2013-07-01

Documentation and analysis of historic maps enhance understanding of temporal and spatial interactions between events and the evolution of physical canals upon which they occurred. And the challenge of this work lies on carefully sifting of information through the maps drawn with relative accuracy by traditional cartographical principles before the emergence of scientific survey. This research project focuses on sorting out the evolution of historic city Suzhou in a spatio-temporal view. The investigation was conducted through an in-depth analysis of historic maps. Re-projection of the geographical elements of the city to one single georeference, that is to say a standard map BASE, help acquiring an actual sense of the scale and facilitate the recognition of the city's evolution in clear details. It is an important contribution of this thesis in coordination of variously distorted geographical information contained in nineteen periods span from 1229 to 2013 into a single research resource. Through the work both quantitative and qualitative, a clear vision of the evolution and characteristics of the urban structure of ancient Suzhou is achieved. Meanwhile, in the process of projecting the historical geometrical information onto the topographic map, historical bibliographic and cartographic records is key to the data coordination and readjustment, this inspire as well on the cautious utilization of historical materials from ancient time in the recording, documentation work.

Cross-continent comparisons reveal differing environmental drivers of growth of the coral reef fish, Lutjanus bohar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ong, Joyce J. L.; Rountrey, Adam N.; Marriott, Ross J.; Newman, Stephen J.; Meeuwig, Jessica J.; Meekan, Mark G.

2017-03-01

Biochronologies provide important insights into the growth responses of fishes to past variability in physical and biological environments and, in so doing, allow modelling of likely responses to climate change in the future. We examined spatial variability in the key drivers of inter-annual growth patterns of a widespread, tropical snapper, Lutjanus bohar, at similar tropical latitudes on the north-western and north-eastern coasts of the continent of Australia. For this study, we developed biochronologies from otoliths that provided proxies of somatic growth and these were analysed using mixed-effects models to examine the historical drivers of growth. Our analyses demonstrated that growth patterns of fish were driven by different climatic and biological factors in each region, including Pacific Ocean climate indices, regional sea level and the size structure of the fish community. Our results showed that the local oceanographic and biological context of reef systems strongly influenced the growth of L. bohar and that a single age-related growth trend cannot be assumed for separate populations of this species that are likely to experience different environmental conditions. Generalised predictions about the growth response of fishes to climate change will thus require adequate characterisation of the spatial variability in growth determinants likely to be found throughout the range of species that have cosmopolitan distributions.

Climate change and epidemics in Chinese history: A multi-scalar analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Harry F; Fei, Jie; Chan, Christopher Y S; Pei, Qing; Jia, Xin; Yue, Ricci P H

2017-02-01

This study seeks to provide further insight regarding the relationship of climate-epidemics in Chinese history through a multi-scalar analysis. Based on 5961 epidemic incidents in China during 1370-1909 CE we applied Ordinary Least Square regression and panel data regression to verify the climate-epidemic nexus over a range of spatial scales (country, macro region, and province). Results show that epidemic outbreaks were negatively correlated with the temperature in historical China at various geographic levels, while a stark reduction in the correlational strength was observed at lower geographic levels. Furthermore, cooling drove up epidemic outbreaks in northern and central China, where population pressure reached a clear threshold for amplifying the vulnerability of epidemic outbreaks to climate change. Our findings help to illustrate the modifiable areal unit and the uncertain geographic context problems in climate-epidemics research. Researchers need to consider the scale effect in the course of statistical analyses, which are currently predominantly conducted on a national/single scale; and also the importance of how the study area is delineated, an issue which is rarely discussed in the climate-epidemics literature. Future research may leverage our results and provide a cross-analysis with those derived from spatial analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projecting climate change impacts on hydrology: the potential role of daily GCM output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

A primary challenge facing resource managers in accommodating climate change is determining the range and uncertainty in regional and local climate projections. This is especially important for assessing changes in extreme events, which will drive many of the more severe impacts of a changed climate. Since global climate models (GCMs) produce output at a spatial scale incompatible with local impact assessment, different techniques have evolved to downscale GCM output so locally important climate features are expressed in the projections. We compared skill and hydrologic projections using two statistical downscaling methods and a distributed hydrology model. The downscaling methods are the constructed analogues (CA) and the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD). CA uses daily GCM output, and can thus capture GCM projections for changing extreme event occurrence, while BCSD uses monthly output and statistically generates historical daily sequences. We evaluate the hydrologic impacts projected using downscaled climate (from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as a surrogate GCM) for the late 20th century with both methods, comparing skill in projecting soil moisture, snow pack, and streamflow at key locations in the Western United States. We include an assessment of a new method for correcting for GCM biases in a hybrid method combining the most important characteristics of both methods.

High-dynamic-range scene compression in humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCann, John J.

2006-02-01

Single pixel dynamic-range compression alters a particular input value to a unique output value - a look-up table. It is used in chemical and most digital photographic systems having S-shaped transforms to render high-range scenes onto low-range media. Post-receptor neural processing is spatial, as shown by the physiological experiments of Dowling, Barlow, Kuffler, and Hubel & Wiesel. Human vision does not render a particular receptor-quanta catch as a unique response. Instead, because of spatial processing, the response to a particular quanta catch can be any color. Visual response is scene dependent. Stockham proposed an approach to model human range compression using low-spatial frequency filters. Campbell, Ginsberg, Wilson, Watson, Daly and many others have developed spatial-frequency channel models. This paper describes experiments measuring the properties of desirable spatial-frequency filters for a variety of scenes. Given the radiances of each pixel in the scene and the observed appearances of objects in the image, one can calculate the visual mask for that individual image. Here, visual mask is the spatial pattern of changes made by the visual system in processing the input image. It is the spatial signature of human vision. Low-dynamic range images with many white areas need no spatial filtering. High-dynamic-range images with many blacks, or deep shadows, require strong spatial filtering. Sun on the right and shade on the left requires directional filters. These experiments show that variable scene- scenedependent filters are necessary to mimic human vision. Although spatial-frequency filters can model human dependent appearances, the problem still remains that an analysis of the scene is still needed to calculate the scene-dependent strengths of each of the filters for each frequency.

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also individual extreme events. Since the predicted loss estimates, typically in the form of a curve plotting return period against modelled loss, are used in the pricing of reinsurance, we demonstrate the importance of the estimated return period and understanding the uncertainties associated with it.

Use of visual range measurements to predict fine particulate matter exposures in Southwest Asia and Afghanistan.

PubMed

Masri, Shahir; Garshick, Eric; Hart, Jaime; Bouhamra, Walid; Koutrakis, Petros

2017-01-01

Military personnel deployed to Southwest Asia and Afghanistan were exposed to high levels of ambient particulate matter (PM). However, quantitative ambient exposure data for conducting health studies are limited due to a lack of PM monitoring stations. Since visual range (VR) is proportional to particle light extinction, VR can serve as a surrogate for PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm) concentrations. We used data on VR, relative humidity (RH), and PM 2.5 ground measurements collected in Kuwait from years 2004-2005 to establish the relationship between PM 2.5 and VR. Model validation obtained by regressing trimester average PM 2.5 predictions against PM 2.5 measurements in Kuwait produced an r 2 value of 0.84. Cross validation of urban and rural sites in Kuwait also revealed good model fit. We applied this relationship to location-specific visibility data at 104 regional sites between years 2000-2012 to estimate monthly average PM 2.5 concentrations. Monthly averages at sites in Iraq, Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Djibouti, and Qatar ranged from 10 to 365 µg/m3 during this period, while site averages ranged from 22 to 80 µg/m3, indicating considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in ambient PM 2.5 across these regions. These data support the use of historical visibility data to estimate location-specific PM 2.5 concentrations for application in epidemiological studies. This study demonstrates the ability to use airport visibility to estimate PM 2.5 concentrations in Southwest Asian and Afghanistan. This supports the use of historical and ongoing visibility data to estimate PM 2.5 exposure in this region of the world, where PM exposure information is otherwise scarce. This is of high utility to epidemiologists investigating the relationship between chronic exposure to PM 2.5 and respiratory diseases among deployed military personnel stationed at various military bases throughout the region. Such information will enable the drafting of improved policies relating to military health.

Equity, Institutional Diversity and Regional Development: A Cross-Country Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinheiro, Rómulo; Charles, David; Jones, Glen A.

2016-01-01

This paper investigates historical and current developments regarding governmental policies aimed at enhancing spatial equity (access) or decentralisation of higher education provision in three countries--Australia, Canada and Norway. We then shed light on the links or interrelations between policy objectives and initiatives and institutional…

Chapter 1 - Executive summary

Treesearch

Matthew G. Rollins; Robert E. Keane; Zhiliang Zhu

2006-01-01

Geospatial data describing wildland fuel and current as well as historical vegetation conditions are essential for planning, implementing, and monitoring projects supported by the National Fire Plan and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act. Scientifically credible, consistent, and standardized spatial data allow fire and land managers to accurately identify the amount...

Evolution of Precipitation Extremes in Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations - Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, J. L.; Brissette, F.; Mailhot, A.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Turcotte, R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in future climate due to global warming. In this study, we compare annual maxima precipitation series from three large ensembles of climate simulations at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The first two are at the global scale: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (CanESM2-LE) at a 2.8° resolution and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (CESM1-LE) at a 1° resolution. The third ensemble is at the regional scale over both Eastern North America and Europe: the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) 50-member large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the CanESM-LE. The CRCM5-LE is a new ensemble issued from the ClimEx project (http://www.climex-project.org), a Québec-Bavaria collaboration. Using these three large ensembles, change in extreme precipitations over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods are investigated. This results in 1 500 (30 years x 50 members for CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members for CESM1-LE) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. Using these large datasets, the empirical daily (and sub-daily for CRCM5-LE) extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed. Results indicate that daily extreme precipitations generally will increase over most land grid points of both domains according to the three large ensembles. Regarding the CRCM5-LE, the increase in sub-daily extreme precipitations will be even more important than the one observed for daily extreme precipitations. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety.

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chuanhao; Hu, Bill X.; Huang, Guoru; Wang, Peng; Xu, Kai

2018-03-01

China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2008) water budget data and climate projections from 28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.2 to -0.1) across China. The P elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from -2.4 to 3.6 % yr-1 across China, with the negative contribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P is projected to increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000).

Distribution and status of redband trout in the interior Columbia river basin and portions of the Klamath river and great basins

Treesearch

Russell F. Thurow; Bruce E. Rieman; Danny C. Lee; Philip J. Howell; Raymon D. Perkinson

2007-01-01

We summarized existing knowledge (circa 1996) of the potential historical range and the current distribution and status of non-anadromous interior redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss ssp. in the U.S. portion of the interior Columbia River Basin and portions of the Klamath River and Great Basins (ICRB). We estimated that the potential historical range included 5,458...

On the identity of Leptoxis taeniata – a misapplied name for the threatened Painted Rocksnail (Cerithioidea, Pleuroceridae)

PubMed Central

Whelan, Nathan V.; Johnson, Paul D.; Garner, Jeffrey T.; Strong, Ellen E.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Painted Rocksnail, currently known as Leptoxis taeniata, is a federally threatened species native to the Mobile River basin in Alabama, USA. Presently restricted to four disjunct populations, the species is at considerable risk of extinction after a range decline of over 95% in the 20th century because of habitat alteration following impoundment of the Coosa River. Here, we reassess the identity and historical range of the Painted Rocksnail to improve communication and conservation efforts for the species. We determined that L. taeniata is a synonym of L. picta and that the name L. taeniata has been misapplied to the current concept of the Painted Rocksnail for which L. coosaensis is the oldest available name. Leptoxis coosaensis and L. picta are herein redescribed. After examination of historical material, we determined that records of the Painted Rocksnail outside the Coosa River drainage were misidentifications. Thus, we redefine the historical range of the Painted Rocksnail as restricted to the Coosa River and select tributaries above the Fall Line at Wetumpka, Alabama, rather than extending into the Alabama River as previously thought. Leptoxis coosaensis is in dire need of conservation, and management plans should take into consideration the revised historical range of the species. PMID:29134014

Historical disturbance regimes as a reference for forest policy. in a multiowner province: a simulation experiment

Treesearch

Jonathan R. Thompson; K. Norman Johnson; Marie Lennette; Thomas A. Spies; Pete Bettinger

2006-01-01

Using a landscape simulation model, we examined ecological and economic implications of forest policies designed to emulate the historical fire regime across the 2 x 106 ha Oregon Coast Range. Simulated policies included two variants of the current policy and three policies reflecting aspects of the historical fire regime. Policy development was...

What Makes a Good History Essay? Assessing Historical Aspects of Argumentative Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monte-Sano, Chauncey

2012-01-01

Teaching students to write standard arguments in history classes is certainly worthwhile; teaching them to write historical arguments is even more so. Learning historical writing is something that a range of students can do. But what does it mean to write a good history essay and what might students' attempts to do so look like? Here, the author…

Historical citizen science to understand and predict climate-driven trout decline

PubMed Central

Ninyerola, Miquel; Hermoso, Virgilio; Filipe, Ana Filipa; Pla, Magda; Villero, Daniel; Brotons, Lluís; Delibes, Miguel

2017-01-01

Historical species records offer an excellent opportunity to test the predictive ability of range forecasts under climate change, but researchers often consider that historical records are scarce and unreliable, besides the datasets collected by renowned naturalists. Here, we demonstrate the relevance of biodiversity records developed through citizen-science initiatives generated outside the natural sciences academia. We used a Spanish geographical dictionary from the mid-nineteenth century to compile over 10 000 freshwater fish records, including almost 4 000 brown trout (Salmo trutta) citations, and constructed a historical presence–absence dataset covering over 2 000 10 × 10 km cells, which is comparable to present-day data. There has been a clear reduction in trout range in the past 150 years, coinciding with a generalized warming. We show that current trout distribution can be accurately predicted based on historical records and past and present values of three air temperature variables. The models indicate a consistent decline of average suitability of around 25% between 1850s and 2000s, which is expected to surpass 40% by the 2050s. We stress the largely unexplored potential of historical species records from non-academic sources to open new pathways for long-term global change science. PMID:28077766

A spatial model of potential jaguar habitat in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, J.R.; Averill-Murray, A.; van Pelt, W.E.

2005-01-01

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is an endangered species that occasionally visits the southwestern United States from Mexico. The number of jaguar sightings per decade has declined over the last 100 years in Arizona, USA, raising conservation concerns for the species at a local and national level. In 1997, state, federal, and local governments with land-management responsibilities agreed to characterize and identify potential jaguar habitat in Arizona and New Mexico. Specifically, the objectives of our analysis were 2-fold: (1) characterize potential jaguar habitat in Arizona from historic sighting records and (2) create a statewide habitat suitability map. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to characterize potential jaguar habitat by overlaying historic jaguar sightings (25) on landscape and habitat features believed important (e.g., vegetation biomes and series, elevation, terrain ruggedness, proximity to perennial or intermittent water sources, human density). The amount of Arizona (%) identified as potential jaguar habitat ranged from 21% to 30% depending on the input variables. Most jaguar sightings were in scrub grasslands between 1,220 and 1,829-m elevation in southeastern Arizona, in intermediately to extremely rugged terrain, and within 10 km of a water source. Conservation efforts should focus on protecting the most suitable jaguar habitat in southeastern Arizona (i.e., Santa Cruz, Pima, Cochise, Pinal, Graham counties), travel corridors within and outside Arizona, and jaguar habitat in the Sierra Madres of Sonora, Mexico.

A coastal information system to propel emerging science and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Estuary Data Mapper (EDM) is a free, interactive virtual gateway to coastal data aimed to promote research and aid in environmental management. The graphical user interface allows users to custom select and subset data based on their spatial and temporal interests giving them easy access to visualize, retrieve, and save data for further analysis. Data are accessible across estuarine systems of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Pacific regions of the United States and includes: (1) time series data including tidal, hydrologic, and weather, (2) water and sediment quality, (3) atmospheric deposition, (4) habitat, (5) coastal exposure indices, (6) historic and projected land-use and population, (7) historic and projected nitrogen and phosphorous sources and load summaries. EDM issues Web Coverage Service Interface Standard queries (WCS; simple, standard one-line text strings) to a public web service to quickly obtain data subsets by variable, for a date-time range and area selected by user. EDM is continuously being enhanced with updated data and new options. Recent additions include a comprehensive suite of nitrogen source and loading data, and inputs for supporting a modeling approach of seagrass habitat. Additions planned for the near future include 1) support for Integrated Water Resources Management cost-benefit analysis, specifically the Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool and 2) visualization of the combined effects of climate change, land-use a

Estuary Data Mapper: A coastal information system to propel ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Estuary Data Mapper (EDM) is a free, interactive virtual gateway to coastal data aimed to promote research and aid in environmental management. The graphical user interface allows users to custom select and subset data based on their spatial and temporal interests giving them easy access to visualize, retrieve, and save data for further analysis. Data are accessible across estuarine systems of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Pacific regions of the United States and includes: (1) time series data including tidal, hydrologic, and weather, (2) water and sediment quality, (3) atmospheric deposition, (4) habitat, (5) coastal exposure indices, (6) historic and projected land-use and population, (7) historic and projected nitrogen and phosphorous sources and load summaries. EDM issues Web Coverage Service Interface Standard queries (WCS; simple, standard one-line text strings) to a public web service to quickly obtain data subsets by variable, for a date-time range and area selected by user. EDM is continuously being enhanced with updated data and new options. Recent additions include a comprehensive suite of nitrogen source and loading data, and inputs for supporting a modeling approach of seagrass habitat. Additions planned for the near future include 1) support for Integrated Water Resources Management cost-benefit analysis, specifically the Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool and 2) visualization of the combined effects of climate change, land-use a

Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in regions with high rainfall intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-04-01

Model projections of heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model responses. We show that spatial aggregation across regions with intense heavy rainfall events, - defined as grid cells with high annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day), - allows to reduce the role of internal variability and thus to detect a robust signal during the historical period. This enables us to evaluate models with observational datasets and to constrain long-term projections of the intensification of heavy rainfall, i.e., to recalibrate full model ensemble consistent with observations resulting in narrower range of projections. In the regions of intense heavy rainfall, we found two present-day metrics that are related to a model's projection. The first metric is the observed relationship between the area-weighted mean of the annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and the global land temperatures. The second is the fraction of land exhibiting statistically significant relationships between local annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and global land temperatures over the historical period. The models that simulate high values in both metrics are those that are in better agreement with observations and show strong future intensification of heavy rainfall. This implies that changes in heavy rainfall are likely to be more intense than anticipated from the multi-model mean.

The Grinnell Project; Small Mammal Responses to Climate in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, C. C.; Koo, M.; Monahan, B.; Parra, J.; Moritz, C.

2006-12-01

Between 1915 and 1920, Joseph Grinnell and colleagues investigated the diversity of mammals, reptiles, amphibians and birds across what they termed the Yosemite Transect, an area spanning portions of the San Joaquin Valley, the Sierra Nevada, including about 1/3 of Yosemite National Park, and ending at Mono Lake. Their data collection included preservation of series of specimens at a large number of locations, point counts of birds, photography and extensive natural history notes, all of which are still archived at the Museum of Vertebrate Zoology at UC Berkeley. Beginning in 2003, researchers from the MVZ began retracing this work, collecting specimens, using point counts, and retaking some photographs. The comparison of the two periods indicates that some mammals have shifted their ranges greatly. Most taxa show an elevation increase, either an increase at the top for middle elevation species, or a retraction at the bottom for higher elevation species. However, not all species moved, and one high elevation species moved down. To further investigate how changes observed in Yosemite might also apply to larger spatial scales, our group has been using historic climate surfaces, historic specimen localities, and a variety of modeling methods to predict statewide changes in species' distributions. Other potential sites to be revisited include the Lassen Transect in Northern California, the Colorado River, and the San Bernardino Mountains.

Genetic structure of populations of whale sharks among ocean basins and evidence for their historic rise and recent decline.

PubMed

Vignaud, Thomas M; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Leblois, Raphael; Meekan, Mark G; Vázquez-Juárez, Ricardo; Ramírez-Macías, Dení; Pierce, Simon J; Rowat, David; Berumen, Michael L; Beeravolu, Champak; Baksay, Sandra; Planes, Serge

2014-05-01

This study presents genetic evidence that whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, are comprised of at least two populations that rarely mix and is the first to document a population expansion. Relatively high genetic structure is found when comparing sharks from the Gulf of Mexico with sharks from the Indo-Pacific. If mixing occurs between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, it is not sufficient to counter genetic drift. This suggests whale sharks are not all part of a single global metapopulation. The significant population expansion we found was indicated by both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA. The expansion may have happened during the Holocene, when tropical species could expand their range due to sea-level rise, eliminating dispersal barriers and increasing plankton productivity. However, the historic trend of population increase may have reversed recently. Declines in genetic diversity are found for 6 consecutive years at Ningaloo Reef in Australia. The declines in genetic diversity being seen now in Australia may be due to commercial-scale harvesting of whale sharks and collision with boats in past decades in other countries in the Indo-Pacific. The study findings have implications for models of population connectivity for whale sharks and advocate for continued focus on effective protection of the world's largest fish at multiple spatial scales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Timescale bias in measuring river migration rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, M.; Belmont, P.; Notebaert, B.

2016-12-01

River channel migration plays an important role in sediment routing, water quality, riverine ecology, and infrastructure risk assessment. Migration rates may change in time and space due to systematic changes in hydrology, sediment supply, vegetation, and/or human land and water management actions. The ability to make detailed measurements of lateral migration over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales has been enhanced from increased availability of historical landscape-scale aerial photography and high-resolution topography (HRT). Despite a surge in the use of historical and contemporary aerial photograph sequences in conjunction with evolving methods to analyze such data for channel change, we found no research considering the biases that may be introduced as a function of the temporal scales of measurement. Unsteady processes (e.g.; sedimentation, channel migration, width changes) exhibit extreme discontinuities over time and space, resulting in distortion when measurements are averaged over longer temporal scales, referred to as `Sadler effects' (Sadler, 1981; Gardner et al., 1987). Using 12 sets of aerial photographs for the Root River (Minnesota), we measure lateral migration over space (110 km) and time (1937-2013) assess whether bias arises from different measurement scales and whether rates shift systematically with increased discharge over time. Results indicate that measurement-scale biases indeed arise from the time elapsed between measurements. We parsed the study reach into three distinct reaches and examine if/how recent increases in river discharge translate into changes in migration rate.

Reptile Embryos Lack the Opportunity to Thermoregulate by Moving within the Egg.

PubMed

Telemeco, Rory S; Gangloff, Eric J; Cordero, Gerardo A; Mitchell, Timothy S; Bodensteiner, Brooke L; Holden, Kaitlyn G; Mitchell, Sarah M; Polich, Rebecca L; Janzen, Fredric J

2016-07-01

Historically, egg-bound reptile embryos were thought to passively thermoconform to the nest environment. However, recent observations of thermal taxis by embryos of multiple reptile species have led to the widely discussed hypothesis that embryos behaviorally thermoregulate. Because temperature affects development, such thermoregulation could allow embryos to control their fate far more than historically assumed. We assessed the opportunity for embryos to behaviorally thermoregulate in nature by examining thermal gradients within natural nests and eggs of the common snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina; which displays embryonic thermal taxis) and by simulating thermal gradients within nests across a range of nest depths, egg sizes, and soil types. We observed little spatial thermal variation within nests, and thermal gradients were poorly transferred to eggs. Furthermore, thermal gradients sufficiently large and constant for behavioral thermoregulation were not predicted to occur in our simulations. Gradients of biologically relevant magnitude have limited global occurrence and reverse direction twice daily when they do exist, which is substantially faster than embryos can shift position within the egg. Our results imply that reptile embryos will rarely, if ever, have the opportunity to behaviorally thermoregulate by moving within the egg. We suggest that embryonic thermal taxis instead represents a play behavior, which may be adaptive or selectively neutral, and results from the mechanisms for behavioral thermoregulation in free-living stages coming online prior to hatching.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.