Explanation of asymmetric dynamics of human water consumption in arid regions: prospect theory versus expected utility theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, F.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Based on socioeconomic and hydrological data in three arid inland basins and error analysis, the dynamics of human water consumption (HWC) are analyzed to be asymmetric, i.e., HWC increase rapidly in wet periods while maintain or decrease slightly in dry periods. Besides the qualitative analysis that in wet periods great water availability inspires HWC to grow fast but the now expanded economy is managed to sustain by over-exploitation in dry periods, two quantitative models are established and tested, based on expected utility theory (EUT) and prospect theory (PT) respectively. EUT states that humans make decisions based on the total expected utility, namely the sum of utility function multiplied by probability of each result, while PT states that the utility function is defined over gains and losses separately, and probability should be replaced by probability weighting function.

The Theory of Human Capital and the Earnings of Women: A Re-examination of the Evidence. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandell, Steven H.; Shapiro, David

This paper discusses specification and interpretation of human capital models of women's earnings when data on actual work experience are available. It uses the segmented earnings function framework developed by Jacob Mincer and Solomon Polachek and considers the effects of data errors, issues involving data interpretation, consequences of model…

Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

PubMed

Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

2016-08-01

The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

A cognitive taxonomy of medical errors.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiajie; Patel, Vimla L; Johnson, Todd R; Shortliffe, Edward H

2004-06-01

Propose a cognitive taxonomy of medical errors at the level of individuals and their interactions with technology. Use cognitive theories of human error and human action to develop the theoretical foundations of the taxonomy, develop the structure of the taxonomy, populate the taxonomy with examples of medical error cases, identify cognitive mechanisms for each category of medical error under the taxonomy, and apply the taxonomy to practical problems. Four criteria were used to evaluate the cognitive taxonomy. The taxonomy should be able (1) to categorize major types of errors at the individual level along cognitive dimensions, (2) to associate each type of error with a specific underlying cognitive mechanism, (3) to describe how and explain why a specific error occurs, and (4) to generate intervention strategies for each type of error. The proposed cognitive taxonomy largely satisfies the four criteria at a theoretical and conceptual level. Theoretically, the proposed cognitive taxonomy provides a method to systematically categorize medical errors at the individual level along cognitive dimensions, leads to a better understanding of the underlying cognitive mechanisms of medical errors, and provides a framework that can guide future studies on medical errors. Practically, it provides guidelines for the development of cognitive interventions to decrease medical errors and foundation for the development of medical error reporting system that not only categorizes errors but also identifies problems and helps to generate solutions. To validate this model empirically, we will next be performing systematic experimental studies.

Using Broken Windows Theory as the Backdrop for a Proactive Approach to Threat Identification in Health Care.

PubMed

Boquet, Albert J; Cohen, Tara N; Cabrera, Jennifer S; Litzinger, Tracy L; Captain, Kevin A; Fabian, Michael A; Miles, Steven G; Shappell, Scott A

2016-09-09

Historically, health care has relied on error management techniques to measure and reduce the occurrence of adverse events. This study proposes an alternative approach for identifying and analyzing hazardous events. Whereas previous research has concentrated on investigating individual flow disruptions, we maintain the industry should focus on threat windows, or the accumulation of these disruptions. This methodology, driven by the broken windows theory, allows us to identify process inefficiencies before they manifest and open the door for the occurrence of errors and adverse events. Medical human factors researchers observed disruptions during 34 trauma cases at a Level II trauma center. Data were collected during resuscitation and imaging and were classified using a human factors taxonomy: Realizing Improved Patient Care Through Human-Centered Operating Room Design for Threat Window Analysis (RIPCHORD-TWA). Of the 576 total disruptions observed, communication issues were the most prevalent (28%), followed by interruptions and coordination issues (24% each). Issues related to layout (16%), usability (5%), and equipment (2%) comprised the remainder of the observations. Disruptions involving communication issues were more prevalent during resuscitation, whereas coordination problems were observed more frequently during imaging. Rather than solely investigating errors and adverse events, we propose conceptualizing the accumulation of disruptions in terms of threat windows as a means to analyze potential threats to the integrity of the trauma care system. This approach allows for the improved identification of system weaknesses or threats, affording us the ability to address these inefficiencies and intervene before errors and adverse events may occur.

Rational integration of noisy evidence and prior semantic expectations in sentence interpretation.

PubMed

Gibson, Edward; Bergen, Leon; Piantadosi, Steven T

2013-05-14

Sentence processing theories typically assume that the input to our language processing mechanisms is an error-free sequence of words. However, this assumption is an oversimplification because noise is present in typical language use (for instance, due to a noisy environment, producer errors, or perceiver errors). A complete theory of human sentence comprehension therefore needs to explain how humans understand language given imperfect input. Indeed, like many cognitive systems, language processing mechanisms may even be "well designed"--in this case for the task of recovering intended meaning from noisy utterances. In particular, comprehension mechanisms may be sensitive to the types of information that an idealized statistical comprehender would be sensitive to. Here, we evaluate four predictions about such a rational (Bayesian) noisy-channel language comprehender in a sentence comprehension task: (i) semantic cues should pull sentence interpretation towards plausible meanings, especially if the wording of the more plausible meaning is close to the observed utterance in terms of the number of edits; (ii) this process should asymmetrically treat insertions and deletions due to the Bayesian "size principle"; such nonliteral interpretation of sentences should (iii) increase with the perceived noise rate of the communicative situation and (iv) decrease if semantically anomalous meanings are more likely to be communicated. These predictions are borne out, strongly suggesting that human language relies on rational statistical inference over a noisy channel.

Rational integration of noisy evidence and prior semantic expectations in sentence interpretation

PubMed Central

Gibson, Edward; Bergen, Leon; Piantadosi, Steven T.

2013-01-01

Sentence processing theories typically assume that the input to our language processing mechanisms is an error-free sequence of words. However, this assumption is an oversimplification because noise is present in typical language use (for instance, due to a noisy environment, producer errors, or perceiver errors). A complete theory of human sentence comprehension therefore needs to explain how humans understand language given imperfect input. Indeed, like many cognitive systems, language processing mechanisms may even be “well designed”–in this case for the task of recovering intended meaning from noisy utterances. In particular, comprehension mechanisms may be sensitive to the types of information that an idealized statistical comprehender would be sensitive to. Here, we evaluate four predictions about such a rational (Bayesian) noisy-channel language comprehender in a sentence comprehension task: (i) semantic cues should pull sentence interpretation towards plausible meanings, especially if the wording of the more plausible meaning is close to the observed utterance in terms of the number of edits; (ii) this process should asymmetrically treat insertions and deletions due to the Bayesian “size principle”; such nonliteral interpretation of sentences should (iii) increase with the perceived noise rate of the communicative situation and (iv) decrease if semantically anomalous meanings are more likely to be communicated. These predictions are borne out, strongly suggesting that human language relies on rational statistical inference over a noisy channel. PMID:23637344

The Causes of Errors in Clinical Reasoning: Cognitive Biases, Knowledge Deficits, and Dual Process Thinking.

PubMed

Norman, Geoffrey R; Monteiro, Sandra D; Sherbino, Jonathan; Ilgen, Jonathan S; Schmidt, Henk G; Mamede, Silvia

2017-01-01

Contemporary theories of clinical reasoning espouse a dual processing model, which consists of a rapid, intuitive component (Type 1) and a slower, logical and analytical component (Type 2). Although the general consensus is that this dual processing model is a valid representation of clinical reasoning, the causes of diagnostic errors remain unclear. Cognitive theories about human memory propose that such errors may arise from both Type 1 and Type 2 reasoning. Errors in Type 1 reasoning may be a consequence of the associative nature of memory, which can lead to cognitive biases. However, the literature indicates that, with increasing expertise (and knowledge), the likelihood of errors decreases. Errors in Type 2 reasoning may result from the limited capacity of working memory, which constrains computational processes. In this article, the authors review the medical literature to answer two substantial questions that arise from this work: (1) To what extent do diagnostic errors originate in Type 1 (intuitive) processes versus in Type 2 (analytical) processes? (2) To what extent are errors a consequence of cognitive biases versus a consequence of knowledge deficits?The literature suggests that both Type 1 and Type 2 processes contribute to errors. Although it is possible to experimentally induce cognitive biases, particularly availability bias, the extent to which these biases actually contribute to diagnostic errors is not well established. Educational strategies directed at the recognition of biases are ineffective in reducing errors; conversely, strategies focused on the reorganization of knowledge to reduce errors have small but consistent benefits.

Graph pyramids as models of human problem solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pizlo, Zygmunt; Li, Zheng

2004-05-01

Prior theories have assumed that human problem solving involves estimating distances among states and performing search through the problem space. The role of mental representation in those theories was minimal. Results of our recent experiments suggest that humans are able to solve some difficult problems quickly and accurately. Specifically, in solving these problems humans do not seem to rely on distances or on search. It is quite clear that producing good solutions without performing search requires a very effective mental representation. In this paper we concentrate on studying the nature of this representation. Our theory takes the form of a graph pyramid. To verify the psychological plausibility of this theory we tested subjects in a Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem in the presence of obstacles. The role of the number and size of obstacles was tested for problems with 6-50 cities. We analyzed the effect of experimental conditions on solution time per city and on solution error. The main result is that time per city is systematically affected only by the size of obstacles, but not by their number, or by the number of cities.

"Do positive affectivity and boundary preferences matter for work-family enrichment? A study of human service workers": Correction to McNall, Scott, and Nicklin (2015).

PubMed

2016-07-01

Reports an error in "Do positive affectivity and boundary preferences matter for work-family enrichment? A study of human service workers" by Laurel A. McNall, Lindsay D. Scott and Jessica M. Nicklin (Journal of Occupational Health Psychology, 2015[Jan], Vol 20[1], 93-104). In the article there was an error in Figure 1. The lower left bubble should read "Boundary Preference Toward Segmentation" instead of "Boundary Preference Toward Integration." (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2014-44477-001.) More individuals than ever are managing work and family roles, but relatively little research has been done exploring whether boundary preferences help individuals benefit from multiple role memberships. Drawing on Greenhaus and Powell's (2006) work-family enrichment theory, along with Boundary Theory (Ashforth, Kreiner, & Fugate, 2000) and Conservation of Resources Theory (Hobfoll, 2002), we explore the impact of personal characteristics as enablers of work-family enrichment, and in turn, work outcomes relevant to human service workers: turnover intentions and emotional exhaustion. In a 2-wave study of 161 human service employees, we found that individuals high in positive affectivity were more likely to experience both work-to-family and family to-work enrichment, whereas those with preferences toward integration were more likely to experience work-to-family enrichment (but not family to-work enrichment). In turn, work-to-family enrichment (but not family to-work enrichment) was related to lower turnover intentions and emotional exhaustion. Enrichment served as a mediating mechanism for only some of the hypothesized relationships. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Errors in Human Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-15

Instructional system, Including the works of Burton & -77 -;:-7 Final Report 3951 Brown (1979), Miller (1979), Goldstein (1979), and Stevens and Collins...rea-daAm i_=E1jJh. Providence, R.I.: Brown University Press, 1967. LaBerge , D., & Samuels, S. J. Toward a theory of automatic information processing

The evolution of language

PubMed Central

Nowak, Martin A.; Krakauer, David C.

1999-01-01

The emergence of language was a defining moment in the evolution of modern humans. It was an innovation that changed radically the character of human society. Here, we provide an approach to language evolution based on evolutionary game theory. We explore the ways in which protolanguages can evolve in a nonlinguistic society and how specific signals can become associated with specific objects. We assume that early in the evolution of language, errors in signaling and perception would be common. We model the probability of misunderstanding a signal and show that this limits the number of objects that can be described by a protolanguage. This “error limit” is not overcome by employing more sounds but by combining a small set of more easily distinguishable sounds into words. The process of “word formation” enables a language to encode an essentially unlimited number of objects. Next, we analyze how words can be combined into sentences and specify the conditions for the evolution of very simple grammatical rules. We argue that grammar originated as a simplified rule system that evolved by natural selection to reduce mistakes in communication. Our theory provides a systematic approach for thinking about the origin and evolution of human language. PMID:10393942

Who Loves Prescriptivism and Why? Some Aspects of Language Correctness in Latvia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strelevica-Ošina, Dace

2016-01-01

Taking into account the crosscultural differences in prescriptive attitudes in various linguistic communities, a theory of three types of prescriptivism--human-oriented, language-oriented, and error-oriented prescriptivism--has been offered [Strelevica-Ošina, Dace. [2011] 2012. "Kapec mes gribam, lai valoda ir pareiza? Ieskats preskriptivisma…

Rate-distortion theory and human perception.

PubMed

Sims, Chris R

2016-07-01

The fundamental goal of perception is to aid in the achievement of behavioral objectives. This requires extracting and communicating useful information from noisy and uncertain sensory signals. At the same time, given the complexity of sensory information and the limitations of biological information processing, it is necessary that some information must be lost or discarded in the act of perception. Under these circumstances, what constitutes an 'optimal' perceptual system? This paper describes the mathematical framework of rate-distortion theory as the optimal solution to the problem of minimizing the costs of perceptual error subject to strong constraints on the ability to communicate or transmit information. Rate-distortion theory offers a general and principled theoretical framework for developing computational-level models of human perception (Marr, 1982). Models developed in this framework are capable of producing quantitatively precise explanations for human perceptual performance, while yielding new insights regarding the nature and goals of perception. This paper demonstrates the application of rate-distortion theory to two benchmark domains where capacity limits are especially salient in human perception: discrete categorization of stimuli (also known as absolute identification) and visual working memory. A software package written for the R statistical programming language is described that aids in the development of models based on rate-distortion theory. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kinetics and thermodynamics of DNA polymerases with exonuclease proofreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspard, Pierre

2016-04-01

Kinetic theory and thermodynamics are applied to DNA polymerases with exonuclease activity, taking into account the dependence of the rates on the previously incorporated nucleotide. The replication fidelity is shown to increase significantly thanks to this dependence at the basis of the mechanism of exonuclease proofreading. In particular, this dependence can provide up to a 100-fold lowering of the error probability under physiological conditions. Theory is compared with numerical simulations for the DNA polymerases of T7 viruses and human mitochondria.

Examining single- and multiple-process theories of trust in automation.

PubMed

Rice, Stephen

2009-07-01

The author examined the effects of human responses to automation alerts and nonalerts. Previous research has shown that automation false alarms and misses have differential effects on human trust (i.e., automation false alarms tend to affect operator compliance, whereas automation misses tend to affect operator reliance). Participants performed a simulated combat task, whereby they examined aerial photographs for the presence of enemy targets. A diagnostic aid provided a recommendation during each trial. The author manipulated the reliability and response bias of the aid to provide appropriate data for state-trace analyses. The analyses provided strong evidence that only a multiple-process theory of operator trust can explain the effects of automation errors on human dependence behaviors. The author discusses the theoretical and practical implications of this finding.

Latent error detection: A golden two hours for detection.

PubMed

Saward, Justin R E; Stanton, Neville A

2017-03-01

Undetected error in safety critical contexts generates a latent condition that can contribute to a future safety failure. The detection of latent errors post-task completion is observed in naval air engineers using a diary to record work-related latent error detection (LED) events. A systems view is combined with multi-process theories to explore sociotechnical factors associated with LED. Perception of cues in different environments facilitates successful LED, for which the deliberate review of past tasks within two hours of the error occurring and whilst remaining in the same or similar sociotechnical environment to that which the error occurred appears most effective. Identified ergonomic interventions offer potential mitigation for latent errors; particularly in simple everyday habitual tasks. It is thought safety critical organisations should look to engineer further resilience through the application of LED techniques that engage with system cues across the entire sociotechnical environment, rather than relying on consistent human performance. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How we learn to make decisions: rapid propagation of reinforcement learning prediction errors in humans.

PubMed

Krigolson, Olav E; Hassall, Cameron D; Handy, Todd C

2014-03-01

Our ability to make decisions is predicated upon our knowledge of the outcomes of the actions available to us. Reinforcement learning theory posits that actions followed by a reward or punishment acquire value through the computation of prediction errors-discrepancies between the predicted and the actual reward. A multitude of neuroimaging studies have demonstrated that rewards and punishments evoke neural responses that appear to reflect reinforcement learning prediction errors [e.g., Krigolson, O. E., Pierce, L. J., Holroyd, C. B., & Tanaka, J. W. Learning to become an expert: Reinforcement learning and the acquisition of perceptual expertise. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 21, 1833-1840, 2009; Bayer, H. M., & Glimcher, P. W. Midbrain dopamine neurons encode a quantitative reward prediction error signal. Neuron, 47, 129-141, 2005; O'Doherty, J. P. Reward representations and reward-related learning in the human brain: Insights from neuroimaging. Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 14, 769-776, 2004; Holroyd, C. B., & Coles, M. G. H. The neural basis of human error processing: Reinforcement learning, dopamine, and the error-related negativity. Psychological Review, 109, 679-709, 2002]. Here, we used the brain ERP technique to demonstrate that not only do rewards elicit a neural response akin to a prediction error but also that this signal rapidly diminished and propagated to the time of choice presentation with learning. Specifically, in a simple, learnable gambling task, we show that novel rewards elicited a feedback error-related negativity that rapidly decreased in amplitude with learning. Furthermore, we demonstrate the existence of a reward positivity at choice presentation, a previously unreported ERP component that has a similar timing and topography as the feedback error-related negativity that increased in amplitude with learning. The pattern of results we observed mirrored the output of a computational model that we implemented to compute reward prediction errors and the changes in amplitude of these prediction errors at the time of choice presentation and reward delivery. Our results provide further support that the computations that underlie human learning and decision-making follow reinforcement learning principles.

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

System safety management: A new discipline

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, W. C.

1971-01-01

The systems theory is discussed in relation to safety management. It is suggested that systems safety management, as a new discipline, holds great promise for reducing operating errors, conserving labor resources, avoiding operating costs due to mistakes, and for improving managerial techniques. It is pointed out that managerial failures or system breakdowns are the basic reasons for human errors and condition defects. In this respect, a recommendation is made that safety engineers stop visualizing the problem only with the individual (supervisor or employee) and see the problem from the systems point of view.

Normal accidents: human error and medical equipment design.

PubMed

Dain, Steven

2002-01-01

High-risk systems, which are typical of our technologically complex era, include not just nuclear power plants but also hospitals, anesthesia systems, and the practice of medicine and perfusion. In high-risk systems, no matter how effective safety devices are, some types of accidents are inevitable because the system's complexity leads to multiple and unexpected interactions. It is important for healthcare providers to apply a risk assessment and management process to decisions involving new equipment and procedures or staffing matters in order to minimize the residual risks of latent errors, which are amenable to correction because of the large window of opportunity for their detection. This article provides an introduction to basic risk management and error theory principles and examines ways in which they can be applied to reduce and mitigate the inevitable human errors that accompany high-risk systems. The article also discusses "human factor engineering" (HFE), the process which is used to design equipment/ human interfaces in order to mitigate design errors. The HFE process involves interaction between designers and endusers to produce a series of continuous refinements that are incorporated into the final product. The article also examines common design problems encountered in the operating room that may predispose operators to commit errors resulting in harm to the patient. While recognizing that errors and accidents are unavoidable, organizations that function within a high-risk system must adopt a "safety culture" that anticipates problems and acts aggressively through an anonymous, "blameless" reporting mechanism to resolve them. We must continuously examine and improve the design of equipment and procedures, personnel, supplies and materials, and the environment in which we work to reduce error and minimize its effects. Healthcare providers must take a leading role in the day-to-day management of the "Perioperative System" and be a role model in promoting a culture of safety in their organizations.

Factors affecting nursing students' intention to report medication errors: An application of the theory of planned behavior.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Sharon, Ira; Mahajna, Marlen; Mahajna, Sara

2017-11-01

Medication errors are common among nursing students. Nonetheless, these errors are often underreported. To examine factors related to nursing students' intention to report medication errors, using the Theory of Planned Behavior, and to examine whether the theory is useful in predicting students' intention to report errors. This study has a descriptive cross-sectional design. Study population was recruited in a university and a large nursing school in central and northern Israel. A convenience sample of 250 nursing students took part in the study. The students completed a self-report questionnaire, based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The findings indicate that students' intention to report medication errors was high. The Theory of Planned Behavior constructs explained 38% of variance in students' intention to report medication errors. The constructs of behavioral beliefs, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were found as affecting this intention, while the most significant factor was behavioral beliefs. The findings also reveal that students' fear of the reaction to disclosure of the error from superiors and colleagues may impede them from reporting the error. Understanding factors related to reporting medication errors is crucial to designing interventions that foster error reporting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combinatorial neural codes from a mathematical coding theory perspective.

PubMed

Curto, Carina; Itskov, Vladimir; Morrison, Katherine; Roth, Zachary; Walker, Judy L

2013-07-01

Shannon's seminal 1948 work gave rise to two distinct areas of research: information theory and mathematical coding theory. While information theory has had a strong influence on theoretical neuroscience, ideas from mathematical coding theory have received considerably less attention. Here we take a new look at combinatorial neural codes from a mathematical coding theory perspective, examining the error correction capabilities of familiar receptive field codes (RF codes). We find, perhaps surprisingly, that the high levels of redundancy present in these codes do not support accurate error correction, although the error-correcting performance of receptive field codes catches up to that of random comparison codes when a small tolerance to error is introduced. However, receptive field codes are good at reflecting distances between represented stimuli, while the random comparison codes are not. We suggest that a compromise in error-correcting capability may be a necessary price to pay for a neural code whose structure serves not only error correction, but must also reflect relationships between stimuli.

Decision-Making under Risk of Loss in Children

PubMed Central

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a “better be safe than sorry” rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value. PMID:23349682

Decision-making under risk of loss in children.

PubMed

Steelandt, Sophie; Broihanne, Marie-Hélène; Romain, Amélie; Thierry, Bernard; Dufour, Valérie

2013-01-01

In human adults, judgment errors are known to often lead to irrational decision-making in risky contexts. While these errors can affect the accuracy of profit evaluation, they may have once enhanced survival in dangerous contexts following a "better be safe than sorry" rule of thumb. Such a rule can be critical for children, and it could develop early on. Here, we investigated the rationality of choices and the possible occurrence of judgment errors in children aged 3 to 9 years when exposed to a risky trade. Children were allocated with a piece of cookie that they could either keep or risk in exchange of the content of one cup among 6, visible in front of them. In the cups, cookies could be of larger, equal or smaller sizes than the initial allocation. Chances of losing or winning were manipulated by presenting different combinations of cookie sizes in the cups (for example 3 large, 2 equal and 1 small cookie). We investigated the rationality of children's response using the theoretical models of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Cumulative Prospect Theory. Children aged 3 to 4 years old were unable to discriminate the profitability of exchanging in the different combinations. From 5 years, children were better at maximizing their benefit in each combination, their decisions were negatively induced by the probability of losing, and they exhibited a framing effect, a judgment error found in adults. Confronting data to the EUT indicated that children aged over 5 were risk-seekers but also revealed inconsistencies in their choices. According to a complementary model, the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), they exhibited loss aversion, a pattern also found in adults. These findings confirm that adult-like judgment errors occur in children, which suggests that they possess a survival value.

Foul WX Underground: The Dynamics of Resistance and the Analog Logic of Communication during a Digital Blackout

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-21

32 Sigmund Freud , Civilization and Its Discontents (New York: W.W. Norton, 1962) and Abraham Maslow, ―Theory of Human...Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations. New York: Basic Books, 1996. Freud , Sigmund . Civilization and Its Discontents. New York: W.W...better than a one-to-one scale map? Return to the factor of change over time and even a stable model of human behavior, whether from Freud or Maslow

Human Factors in Financial Trading: An Analysis of Trading Incidents.

PubMed

Leaver, Meghan; Reader, Tom W

2016-09-01

This study tests the reliability of a system (FINANS) to collect and analyze incident reports in the financial trading domain and is guided by a human factors taxonomy used to describe error in the trading domain. Research indicates the utility of applying human factors theory to understand error in finance, yet empirical research is lacking. We report on the development of the first system for capturing and analyzing human factors-related issues in operational trading incidents. In the first study, 20 incidents are analyzed by an expert user group against a referent standard to establish the reliability of FINANS. In the second study, 750 incidents are analyzed using distribution, mean, pathway, and associative analysis to describe the data. Kappa scores indicate that categories within FINANS can be reliably used to identify and extract data on human factors-related problems underlying trading incidents. Approximately 1% of trades (n = 750) lead to an incident. Slip/lapse (61%), situation awareness (51%), and teamwork (40%) were found to be the most common problems underlying incidents. For the most serious incidents, problems in situation awareness and teamwork were most common. We show that (a) experts in the trading domain can reliably and accurately code human factors in incidents, (b) 1% of trades incur error, and (c) poor teamwork skills and situation awareness underpin the most critical incidents. This research provides data crucial for ameliorating risk within financial trading organizations, with implications for regulation and policy. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Medial prefrontal cortex as an action-outcome predictor.

PubMed

Alexander, William H; Brown, Joshua W

2011-09-18

The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and especially anterior cingulate cortex is central to higher cognitive function and many clinical disorders, yet its basic function remains in dispute. Various competing theories of mPFC have treated effects of errors, conflict, error likelihood, volatility and reward, using findings from neuroimaging and neurophysiology in humans and monkeys. No single theory has been able to reconcile and account for the variety of findings. Here we show that a simple model based on standard learning rules can simulate and unify an unprecedented range of known effects in mPFC. The model reinterprets many known effects and suggests a new view of mPFC, as a region concerned with learning and predicting the likely outcomes of actions, whether good or bad. Cognitive control at the neural level is then seen as a result of evaluating the probable and actual outcomes of one's actions. © 2011 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Medial prefrontal cortex as an action-outcome predictor

PubMed Central

Alexander, William H.; Brown, Joshua W.

2011-01-01

The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and especially anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is central to higher cognitive function and numerous clinical disorders, yet its basic function remains in dispute. Various competing theories of mPFC have treated effects of errors, conflict, error likelihood, volatility, and reward, based on findings from neuroimaging and neurophysiology in humans and monkeys. To date, no single theory has been able to reconcile and account for the variety of findings. Here we show that a simple model based on standard learning rules can simulate and unify an unprecedented range of known effects in mPFC. The model reinterprets many known effects and suggests a new view of mPFC, as a region concerned with learning and predicting the likely outcomes of actions, whether good or bad. Cognitive control at the neural level is then seen as a result of evaluating the probable and actual outcomes of one's actions. PMID:21926982

Dynamic Simulation of Human Gait Model With Predictive Capability.

PubMed

Sun, Jinming; Wu, Shaoli; Voglewede, Philip A

2018-03-01

In this paper, it is proposed that the central nervous system (CNS) controls human gait using a predictive control approach in conjunction with classical feedback control instead of exclusive classical feedback control theory that controls based on past error. To validate this proposition, a dynamic model of human gait is developed using a novel predictive approach to investigate the principles of the CNS. The model developed includes two parts: a plant model that represents the dynamics of human gait and a controller that represents the CNS. The plant model is a seven-segment, six-joint model that has nine degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The plant model is validated using data collected from able-bodied human subjects. The proposed controller utilizes model predictive control (MPC). MPC uses an internal model to predict the output in advance, compare the predicted output to the reference, and optimize the control input so that the predicted error is minimal. To decrease the complexity of the model, two joints are controlled using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. The developed predictive human gait model is validated by simulating able-bodied human gait. The simulation results show that the developed model is able to simulate the kinematic output close to experimental data.

Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

PubMed

Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

2014-01-01

The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

Human Factors in Financial Trading

PubMed Central

Leaver, Meghan; Reader, Tom W.

2016-01-01

Objective This study tests the reliability of a system (FINANS) to collect and analyze incident reports in the financial trading domain and is guided by a human factors taxonomy used to describe error in the trading domain. Background Research indicates the utility of applying human factors theory to understand error in finance, yet empirical research is lacking. We report on the development of the first system for capturing and analyzing human factors–related issues in operational trading incidents. Method In the first study, 20 incidents are analyzed by an expert user group against a referent standard to establish the reliability of FINANS. In the second study, 750 incidents are analyzed using distribution, mean, pathway, and associative analysis to describe the data. Results Kappa scores indicate that categories within FINANS can be reliably used to identify and extract data on human factors–related problems underlying trading incidents. Approximately 1% of trades (n = 750) lead to an incident. Slip/lapse (61%), situation awareness (51%), and teamwork (40%) were found to be the most common problems underlying incidents. For the most serious incidents, problems in situation awareness and teamwork were most common. Conclusion We show that (a) experts in the trading domain can reliably and accurately code human factors in incidents, (b) 1% of trades incur error, and (c) poor teamwork skills and situation awareness underpin the most critical incidents. Application This research provides data crucial for ameliorating risk within financial trading organizations, with implications for regulation and policy. PMID:27142394

Beyond crisis resource management: new frontiers in human factors training for acute care medicine.

PubMed

Petrosoniak, Andrew; Hicks, Christopher M

2013-12-01

Error is ubiquitous in medicine, particularly during critical events and resuscitation. A significant proportion of adverse events can be attributed to inadequate team-based skills such as communication, leadership, situation awareness and resource utilization. Aviation-based crisis resource management (CRM) training using high-fidelity simulation has been proposed as a strategy to improve team behaviours. This review will address key considerations in CRM training and outline recommendations for the future of human factors education in healthcare. A critical examination of the current literature yields several important considerations to guide the development and implementation of effective simulation-based CRM training. These include defining a priori domain-specific objectives, creating an immersive environment that encourages deliberate practice and transfer-appropriate processing, and the importance of effective team debriefing. Building on research from high-risk industry, we suggest that traditional CRM training may be augmented with new training techniques that promote the development of shared mental models for team and task processes, address the effect of acute stress on team performance, and integrate strategies to improve clinical reasoning and the detection of cognitive errors. The evolution of CRM training involves a 'Triple Threat' approach that integrates mental model theory for team and task processes, training for stressful situations and metacognition and error theory towards a more comprehensive training paradigm, with roots in high-risk industry and cognitive psychology. Further research is required to evaluate the impact of this approach on patient-oriented outcomes.

A new method for the assessment of patient safety competencies during a medical school clerkship using an objective structured clinical examination

PubMed Central

Daud-Gallotti, Renata Mahfuz; Morinaga, Christian Valle; Arlindo-Rodrigues, Marcelo; Velasco, Irineu Tadeu; Arruda Martins, Milton; Tiberio, Iolanda Calvo

2011-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Patient safety is seldom assessed using objective evaluations during undergraduate medical education. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of fifth-year medical students using an objective structured clinical examination focused on patient safety after implementation of an interactive program based on adverse events recognition and disclosure. METHODS: In 2007, a patient safety program was implemented in the internal medicine clerkship of our hospital. The program focused on human error theory, epidemiology of incidents, adverse events, and disclosure. Upon completion of the program, students completed an objective structured clinical examination with five stations and standardized patients. One station focused on patient safety issues, including medical error recognition/disclosure, the patient-physician relationship and humanism issues. A standardized checklist was completed by each standardized patient to assess the performance of each student. The student's global performance at each station and performance in the domains of medical error, the patient-physician relationship and humanism were determined. The correlations between the student performances in these three domains were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 95 students participated in the objective structured clinical examination. The mean global score at the patient safety station was 87.59±1.24 points. Students' performance in the medical error domain was significantly lower than their performance on patient-physician relationship and humanistic issues. Less than 60% of students (n = 54) offered the simulated patient an apology after a medical error occurred. A significant correlation was found between scores obtained in the medical error domains and scores related to both the patient-physician relationship and humanistic domains. CONCLUSIONS: An objective structured clinical examination is a useful tool to evaluate patient safety competencies during the medical student clerkship. PMID:21876976

Self-Interaction Error in Density Functional Theory: An Appraisal.

PubMed

Bao, Junwei Lucas; Gagliardi, Laura; Truhlar, Donald G

2018-05-03

Self-interaction error (SIE) is considered to be one of the major sources of error in most approximate exchange-correlation functionals for Kohn-Sham density-functional theory (KS-DFT), and it is large with all local exchange-correlation functionals and with some hybrid functionals. In this work, we consider systems conventionally considered to be dominated by SIE. For these systems, we demonstrate that by using multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory (MC-PDFT), the error of a translated local density-functional approximation is significantly reduced (by a factor of 3) when using an MCSCF density and on-top density, as compared to using KS-DFT with the parent functional; the error in MC-PDFT with local on-top functionals is even lower than the error in some popular KS-DFT hybrid functionals. Density-functional theory, either in MC-PDFT form with local on-top functionals or in KS-DFT form with some functionals having 50% or more nonlocal exchange, has smaller errors for SIE-prone systems than does CASSCF, which has no SIE.

When is an error not a prediction error? An electrophysiological investigation.

PubMed

Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E; Baker, Robert; Lee, Seung; Gibson, Jessica

2009-03-01

A recent theory holds that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) uses reinforcement learning signals conveyed by the midbrain dopamine system to facilitate flexible action selection. According to this position, the impact of reward prediction error signals on ACC modulates the amplitude of a component of the event-related brain potential called the error-related negativity (ERN). The theory predicts that ERN amplitude is monotonically related to the expectedness of the event: It is larger for unexpected outcomes than for expected outcomes. However, a recent failure to confirm this prediction has called the theory into question. In the present article, we investigated this discrepancy in three trial-and-error learning experiments. All three experiments provided support for the theory, but the effect sizes were largest when an optimal response strategy could actually be learned. This observation suggests that ACC utilizes dopamine reward prediction error signals for adaptive decision making when the optimal behavior is, in fact, learnable.

Is comprehension necessary for error detection? A conflict-based account of monitoring in speech production

PubMed Central

Nozari, Nazbanou; Dell, Gary S.; Schwartz, Myrna F.

2011-01-01

Despite the existence of speech errors, verbal communication is successful because speakers can detect (and correct) their errors. The standard theory of speech-error detection, the perceptual-loop account, posits that the comprehension system monitors production output for errors. Such a comprehension-based monitor, however, cannot explain the double dissociation between comprehension and error-detection ability observed in the aphasic patients. We propose a new theory of speech-error detection which is instead based on the production process itself. The theory borrows from studies of forced-choice-response tasks the notion that error detection is accomplished by monitoring response conflict via a frontal brain structure, such as the anterior cingulate cortex. We adapt this idea to the two-step model of word production, and test the model-derived predictions on a sample of aphasic patients. Our results show a strong correlation between patients’ error-detection ability and the model’s characterization of their production skills, and no significant correlation between error detection and comprehension measures, thus supporting a production-based monitor, generally, and the implemented conflict-based monitor in particular. The successful application of the conflict-based theory to error-detection in linguistic, as well as non-linguistic domains points to a domain-general monitoring system. PMID:21652015

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Shen, Yun; Tobia, Michael J; Sommer, Tobias; Obermayer, Klaus

2014-07-01

We derive a family of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning methods for agents, who face sequential decision-making tasks in uncertain environments. By applying a utility function to the temporal difference (TD) error, nonlinear transformations are effectively applied not only to the received rewards but also to the true transition probabilities of the underlying Markov decision process. When appropriate utility functions are chosen, the agents' behaviors express key features of human behavior as predicted by prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979 ), for example, different risk preferences for gains and losses, as well as the shape of subjective probability curves. We derive a risk-sensitive Q-learning algorithm, which is necessary for modeling human behavior when transition probabilities are unknown, and prove its convergence. As a proof of principle for the applicability of the new framework, we apply it to quantify human behavior in a sequential investment task. We find that the risk-sensitive variant provides a significantly better fit to the behavioral data and that it leads to an interpretation of the subject's responses that is indeed consistent with prospect theory. The analysis of simultaneously measured fMRI signals shows a significant correlation of the risk-sensitive TD error with BOLD signal change in the ventral striatum. In addition we find a significant correlation of the risk-sensitive Q-values with neural activity in the striatum, cingulate cortex, and insula that is not present if standard Q-values are used.

The Neural Basis of Error Detection: Conflict Monitoring and the Error-Related Negativity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeung, Nick; Botvinick, Matthew M.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2004-01-01

According to a recent theory, anterior cingulate cortex is sensitive to response conflict, the coactivation of mutually incompatible responses. The present research develops this theory to provide a new account of the error-related negativity (ERN), a scalp potential observed following errors. Connectionist simulations of response conflict in an…

Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory Is Free From Delocalization Error.

PubMed

Bao, Junwei Lucas; Wang, Ying; He, Xiao; Gagliardi, Laura; Truhlar, Donald G

2017-11-16

Delocalization error has been singled out by Yang and co-workers as the dominant error in Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KS-DFT) with conventional approximate functionals. In this Letter, by computing the vertical first ionization energy for well separated He clusters, we show that multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory (MC-PDFT) is free from delocalization error. To put MC-PDFT in perspective, we also compare it with some Kohn-Sham density functionals, including both traditional and modern functionals. Whereas large delocalization errors are almost universal in KS-DFT (the only exception being the very recent corrected functionals of Yang and co-workers), delocalization error is removed by MC-PDFT, which bodes well for its future as a step forward from KS-DFT.

Severe infectious diseases of childhood as monogenic inborn errors of immunity

PubMed Central

Casanova, Jean-Laurent

2015-01-01

This paper reviews the developments that have occurred in the field of human genetics of infectious diseases from the second half of the 20th century onward. In particular, it stresses and explains the importance of the recently described monogenic inborn errors of immunity underlying resistance or susceptibility to specific infections. The monogenic component of the genetic theory provides a plausible explanation for the occurrence of severe infectious diseases during primary infection. Over the last 20 y, increasing numbers of life-threatening infectious diseases striking otherwise healthy children, adolescents, and even young adults have been attributed to single-gene inborn errors of immunity. These studies were inspired by seminal but neglected findings in plant and animal infections. Infectious diseases typically manifest as sporadic traits because human genotypes often display incomplete penetrance (most genetically predisposed individuals remain healthy) and variable expressivity (different infections can be allelic at the same locus). Infectious diseases of childhood, once thought to be archetypal environmental diseases, actually may be among the most genetically determined conditions of mankind. This nascent and testable notion has interesting medical and biological implications. PMID:26621750

Great Expectations: Is there Evidence for Predictive Coding in Auditory Cortex?

PubMed

Heilbron, Micha; Chait, Maria

2017-08-04

Predictive coding is possibly one of the most influential, comprehensive, and controversial theories of neural function. While proponents praise its explanatory potential, critics object that key tenets of the theory are untested or even untestable. The present article critically examines existing evidence for predictive coding in the auditory modality. Specifically, we identify five key assumptions of the theory and evaluate each in the light of animal, human and modeling studies of auditory pattern processing. For the first two assumptions - that neural responses are shaped by expectations and that these expectations are hierarchically organized - animal and human studies provide compelling evidence. The anticipatory, predictive nature of these expectations also enjoys empirical support, especially from studies on unexpected stimulus omission. However, for the existence of separate error and prediction neurons, a key assumption of the theory, evidence is lacking. More work exists on the proposed oscillatory signatures of predictive coding, and on the relation between attention and precision. However, results on these latter two assumptions are mixed or contradictory. Looking to the future, more collaboration between human and animal studies, aided by model-based analyses will be needed to test specific assumptions and implementations of predictive coding - and, as such, help determine whether this popular grand theory can fulfill its expectations. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Putting into practice error management theory: Unlearning and learning to manage action errors in construction.

PubMed

Love, Peter E D; Smith, Jim; Teo, Pauline

2018-05-01

Error management theory is drawn upon to examine how a project-based organization, which took the form of a program alliance, was able to change its established error prevention mindset to one that enacted a learning mindfulness that provided an avenue to curtail its action errors. The program alliance was required to unlearn its existing routines and beliefs to accommodate the practices required to embrace error management. As a result of establishing an error management culture the program alliance was able to create a collective mindfulness that nurtured learning and supported innovation. The findings provide a much-needed context to demonstrate the relevance of error management theory to effectively address rework and safety problems in construction projects. The robust theoretical underpinning that is grounded in practice and presented in this paper provides a mechanism to engender learning from errors, which can be utilized by construction organizations to improve the productivity and performance of their projects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dual processing and diagnostic errors.

PubMed

Norman, Geoff

2009-09-01

In this paper, I review evidence from two theories in psychology relevant to diagnosis and diagnostic errors. "Dual Process" theories of thinking, frequently mentioned with respect to diagnostic error, propose that categorization decisions can be made with either a fast, unconscious, contextual process called System 1 or a slow, analytical, conscious, and conceptual process, called System 2. Exemplar theories of categorization propose that many category decisions in everyday life are made by unconscious matching to a particular example in memory, and these remain available and retrievable individually. I then review studies of clinical reasoning based on these theories, and show that the two processes are equally effective; System 1, despite its reliance in idiosyncratic, individual experience, is no more prone to cognitive bias or diagnostic error than System 2. Further, I review evidence that instructions directed at encouraging the clinician to explicitly use both strategies can lead to consistent reduction in error rates.

Testing Error Management Theory: Exploring the Commitment Skepticism Bias and the Sexual Overperception Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henningsen, David Dryden; Henningsen, Mary Lynn Miller

2010-01-01

Research on error management theory indicates that men tend to overestimate women's sexual interest and women underestimate men's interest in committed relationships (Haselton & Buss, 2000). We test the assumptions of the theory in face-to-face, stranger interactions with 111 man-woman dyads. Support for the theory emerges, but potential boundary…

Dual Processing and Diagnostic Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norman, Geoff

2009-01-01

In this paper, I review evidence from two theories in psychology relevant to diagnosis and diagnostic errors. "Dual Process" theories of thinking, frequently mentioned with respect to diagnostic error, propose that categorization decisions can be made with either a fast, unconscious, contextual process called System 1 or a slow, analytical,…

International Test Comparisons: Reviewing Translation Error in Different Source Language-Target Language Combinations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Xueyu; Solano-Flores, Guillermo; Qian, Ming

2018-01-01

This article addresses test translation review in international test comparisons. We investigated the applicability of the theory of test translation error--a theory of the multidimensionality and inevitability of test translation error--across source language-target language combinations in the translation of PISA (Programme of International…

Reliability Evaluation and Improvement Approach of Chemical Production Man - Machine - Environment System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Yongchun; Kang, Rongxue; Chen, Xuefeng

2017-12-01

In recent years, with the gradual extension of reliability research, the study of production system reliability has become the hot topic in various industries. Man-machine-environment system is a complex system composed of human factors, machinery equipment and environment. The reliability of individual factor must be analyzed in order to gradually transit to the research of three-factor reliability. Meanwhile, the dynamic relationship among man-machine-environment should be considered to establish an effective blurry evaluation mechanism to truly and effectively analyze the reliability of such systems. In this paper, based on the system engineering, fuzzy theory, reliability theory, human error, environmental impact and machinery equipment failure theory, the reliabilities of human factor, machinery equipment and environment of some chemical production system were studied by the method of fuzzy evaluation. At last, the reliability of man-machine-environment system was calculated to obtain the weighted result, which indicated that the reliability value of this chemical production system was 86.29. Through the given evaluation domain it can be seen that the reliability of man-machine-environment integrated system is in a good status, and the effective measures for further improvement were proposed according to the fuzzy calculation results.

Interactions of timing and prediction error learning.

PubMed

Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2014-01-01

Timing and prediction error learning have historically been treated as independent processes, but growing evidence has indicated that they are not orthogonal. Timing emerges at the earliest time point when conditioned responses are observed, and temporal variables modulate prediction error learning in both simple conditioning and cue competition paradigms. In addition, prediction errors, through changes in reward magnitude or value alter timing of behavior. Thus, there appears to be a bi-directional interaction between timing and prediction error learning. Modern theories have attempted to integrate the two processes with mixed success. A neurocomputational approach to theory development is espoused, which draws on neurobiological evidence to guide and constrain computational model development. Heuristics for future model development are presented with the goal of sparking new approaches to theory development in the timing and prediction error fields. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Kinetics and thermodynamics of exonuclease-deficient DNA polymerases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspard, Pierre

2016-04-01

A kinetic theory is developed for exonuclease-deficient DNA polymerases, based on the experimental observation that the rates depend not only on the newly incorporated nucleotide, but also on the previous one, leading to the growth of Markovian DNA sequences from a Bernoullian template. The dependencies on nucleotide concentrations and template sequence are explicitly taken into account. In this framework, the kinetic and thermodynamic properties of DNA replication, in particular, the mean growth velocity, the error probability, and the entropy production are calculated analytically in terms of the rate constants and the concentrations. Theory is compared with numerical simulations for the DNA polymerases of T7 viruses and human mitochondria.

Structured light: theory and practice and practice and practice...

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keizer, Richard L.; Jun, Heesung; Dunn, Stanley M.

1991-04-01

We have developed a structured light system for noncontact 3-D measurement of human body surface areas and volumes. We illustrate the image processing steps and algorithms used to recover range data from a single camera image, reconstruct a complete surface from one or more sets of range data, and measure areas and volumes. The development of a working system required the solution to a number of practical problems in image processing and grid labeling (the stereo correspondence problem for structured light). In many instances we found that the standard cookbook techniques for image processing failed. This was due in part to the domain (human body), the restrictive assumptions of the models underlying the cookbook techniques, and the inability to consistently predict the outcome of the image processing operations. In this paper, we will discuss some of our successes and failures in two key steps in acquiring range data using structured light: First, the problem of detecting intersections in the structured light grid, and secondly, the problem of establishing correspondence between projected and detected intersections. We will outline the problems and solutions we have arrived at after several years of trial and error. We can now measure range data with an r.m.s. relative error of 0.3% and measure areas on the human body surface within 3% and volumes within 10%. We have found that the solution to building a working vision system requires the right combination of theory and experimental verification.

Theory of Test Translation Error

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solano-Flores, Guillermo; Backhoff, Eduardo; Contreras-Nino, Luis Angel

2009-01-01

In this article, we present a theory of test translation whose intent is to provide the conceptual foundation for effective, systematic work in the process of test translation and test translation review. According to the theory, translation error is multidimensional; it is not simply the consequence of defective translation but an inevitable fact…

A model of methods for influencing prescribing: Part I. A review of prescribing models, persuasion theories, and administrative and educational methods.

PubMed

Raisch, D W

1990-04-01

The purpose of this literature review is to develop a model of methods to be used to influence prescribing. Four bodies of literature were identified as being important for developing the model: (1) Theoretical prescribing models furnish information concerning factors that affect prescribing and how prescribing decisions are made. (2) Theories of persuasion provide insight into important components of educational communications. (3) Research articles of programs to improve prescribing identify types of programs that have been found to be successful. (4) Theories of human inference describe how judgments are formulated and identify errors in judgment that can play a role in prescribing. This review is presented in two parts. This article reviews prescribing models, theories of persuasion, studies of administrative programs to control prescribing, and sub-optimally designed studies of educational efforts to influence drug prescribing.

Categorization-based stranger avoidance does not explain the uncanny valley effect.

PubMed

MacDorman, Karl F; Chattopadhyay, Debaleena

2017-04-01

The uncanny valley hypothesis predicts that an entity appearing almost human risks eliciting cold, eerie feelings in viewers. Categorization-based stranger avoidance theory identifies the cause of this feeling as categorizing the entity into a novel category. This explanation is doubtful because stranger is not a novel category in adults; infants do not avoid strangers while the category stranger remains novel; infants old enough to fear strangers prefer photographs of strangers to those more closely resembling a familiar person; and the uncanny valley's characteristic eeriness is seldom felt when meeting strangers. We repeated our original experiment with a more realistic 3D computer model and found no support for categorization-based stranger avoidance theory. By contrast, realism inconsistency theory explains cold, eerie feelings elicited by transitions between instances of two different, mutually exclusive categories, given that at least one category is anthropomorphic: Cold, eerie feelings are caused by prediction error from perceiving some features as features of the first category and other features as features of the second category. In principle, realism inconsistency theory can explain not only negative evaluations of transitions between real and computer modeled humans but also between different vertebrate species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A brain-machine interface to navigate a mobile robot in a planar workspace: enabling humans to fly simulated aircraft with EEG.

PubMed

Akce, Abdullah; Johnson, Miles; Dantsker, Or; Bretl, Timothy

2013-03-01

This paper presents an interface for navigating a mobile robot that moves at a fixed speed in a planar workspace, with noisy binary inputs that are obtained asynchronously at low bit-rates from a human user through an electroencephalograph (EEG). The approach is to construct an ordered symbolic language for smooth planar curves and to use these curves as desired paths for a mobile robot. The underlying problem is then to design a communication protocol by which the user can, with vanishing error probability, specify a string in this language using a sequence of inputs. Such a protocol, provided by tools from information theory, relies on a human user's ability to compare smooth curves, just like they can compare strings of text. We demonstrate our interface by performing experiments in which twenty subjects fly a simulated aircraft at a fixed speed and altitude with input only from EEG. Experimental results show that the majority of subjects are able to specify desired paths despite a wide range of errors made in decoding EEG signals.

A new computational account of cognitive control over reinforcement-based decision-making: Modeling of a probabilistic learning task.

PubMed

Zendehrouh, Sareh

2015-11-01

Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of graph theory measures to identify errors in record linkage.

PubMed

Randall, Sean M; Boyd, James H; Ferrante, Anna M; Bauer, Jacqueline K; Semmens, James B

2014-07-01

Ensuring high linkage quality is important in many record linkage applications. Current methods for ensuring quality are manual and resource intensive. This paper seeks to determine the effectiveness of graph theory techniques in identifying record linkage errors. A range of graph theory techniques was applied to two linked datasets, with known truth sets. The ability of graph theory techniques to identify groups containing errors was compared to a widely used threshold setting technique. This methodology shows promise; however, further investigations into graph theory techniques are required. The development of more efficient and effective methods of improving linkage quality will result in higher quality datasets that can be delivered to researchers in shorter timeframes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-Time Error Representation and Estimation in Navier-Stokes Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2006-01-01

The mathematical framework for a-posteriori error estimation of functionals elucidated by Eriksson et al. [7] and Becker and Rannacher [3] is revisited in a space-time context. Using these theories, a hierarchy of exact and approximate error representation formulas are presented for use in error estimation and mesh adaptivity. Numerical space-time results for simple model problems as well as compressible Navier-Stokes flow at Re = 300 over a 2D circular cylinder are then presented to demonstrate elements of the error representation theory for time-dependent problems.

The Passive Series Stiffness That Optimizes Torque Tracking for a Lower-Limb Exoskeleton in Human Walking

PubMed Central

Zhang, Juanjuan; Collins, Steven H.

2017-01-01

This study uses theory and experiments to investigate the relationship between the passive stiffness of series elastic actuators and torque tracking performance in lower-limb exoskeletons during human walking. Through theoretical analysis with our simplified system model, we found that the optimal passive stiffness matches the slope of the desired torque-angle relationship. We also conjectured that a bandwidth limit resulted in a maximum rate of change in torque error that can be commanded through control input, which is fixed across desired and passive stiffness conditions. This led to hypotheses about the interactions among optimal control gains, passive stiffness and desired quasi-stiffness. Walking experiments were conducted with multiple angle-based desired torque curves. The observed lowest torque tracking errors identified for each combination of desired and passive stiffnesses were shown to be linearly proportional to the magnitude of the difference between the two stiffnesses. The proportional gains corresponding to the lowest observed errors were seen inversely proportional to passive stiffness values and to desired stiffness. These findings supported our hypotheses, and provide guidance to application-specific hardware customization as well as controller design for torque-controlled robotic legged locomotion. PMID:29326580

Beyond human error taxonomies in assessment of risk in sociotechnical systems: a new paradigm with the EAST 'broken-links' approach.

PubMed

Stanton, Neville A; Harvey, Catherine

2017-02-01

Risk assessments in Sociotechnical Systems (STS) tend to be based on error taxonomies, yet the term 'human error' does not sit easily with STS theories and concepts. A new break-link approach was proposed as an alternative risk assessment paradigm to reveal the effect of information communication failures between agents and tasks on the entire STS. A case study of the training of a Royal Navy crew detecting a low flying Hawk (simulating a sea-skimming missile) is presented using EAST to model the Hawk-Frigate STS in terms of social, information and task networks. By breaking 19 social links and 12 task links, 137 potential risks were identified. Discoveries included revealing the effect of risk moving around the system; reducing the risks to the Hawk increased the risks to the Frigate. Future research should examine the effects of compounded information communication failures on STS performance. Practitioner Summary: The paper presents a step-by-step walk-through of EAST to show how it can be used for risk assessment in sociotechnical systems. The 'broken-links' method takes a systemic, rather than taxonomic, approach to identify information communication failures in social and task networks.

Hamiltonian lattice field theory: Computer calculations using variational methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zako, Robert L.

1991-12-03

I develop a variational method for systematic numerical computation of physical quantities -- bound state energies and scattering amplitudes -- in quantum field theory. An infinite-volume, continuum theory is approximated by a theory on a finite spatial lattice, which is amenable to numerical computation. I present an algorithm for computing approximate energy eigenvalues and eigenstates in the lattice theory and for bounding the resulting errors. I also show how to select basis states and choose variational parameters in order to minimize errors. The algorithm is based on the Rayleigh-Ritz principle and Kato`s generalizations of Temple`s formula. The algorithm could bemore » adapted to systems such as atoms and molecules. I show how to compute Green`s functions from energy eigenvalues and eigenstates in the lattice theory, and relate these to physical (renormalized) coupling constants, bound state energies and Green`s functions. Thus one can compute approximate physical quantities in a lattice theory that approximates a quantum field theory with specified physical coupling constants. I discuss the errors in both approximations. In principle, the errors can be made arbitrarily small by increasing the size of the lattice, decreasing the lattice spacing and computing sufficiently long. Unfortunately, I do not understand the infinite-volume and continuum limits well enough to quantify errors due to the lattice approximation. Thus the method is currently incomplete. I apply the method to real scalar field theories using a Fock basis of free particle states. All needed quantities can be calculated efficiently with this basis. The generalization to more complicated theories is straightforward. I describe a computer implementation of the method and present numerical results for simple quantum mechanical systems.« less

The Distinctions of False and Fuzzy Memories.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schooler, Jonathan W.

1998-01-01

Notes that fuzzy-trace theory has been used to understand false memories of children. Demonstrates the irony imbedded in the theory, maintaining that a central implication of fuzzy-trace theory is that some errors characterized as false memories are not really false at all. These errors, when applied to false alarms to related lures, are best…

Human Error: A Concept Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, Frederick D.

2007-01-01

Human error is the subject of research in almost every industry and profession of our times. This term is part of our daily language and intuitively understood by most people however, it would be premature to assume that everyone's understanding of human error s the same. For example, human error is used to describe the outcome or consequence of human action, the causal factor of an accident, deliberate violations,a nd the actual action taken by a human being. As a result, researchers rarely agree on the either a specific definition or how to prevent human error. The purpose of this article is to explore the specific concept of human error using Concept Analysis as described by Walker and Avant (1995). The concept of human error is examined as currently used in the literature of a variety of industries and professions. Defining attributes and examples of model, borderline, and contrary cases are described. The antecedents and consequences of human error are also discussed and a definition of human error is offered.

A quantum theory account of order effects and conjunction fallacies in political judgments.

PubMed

Yearsley, James M; Trueblood, Jennifer S

2017-09-06

Are our everyday judgments about the world around us normative? Decades of research in the judgment and decision-making literature suggest the answer is no. If people's judgments do not follow normative rules, then what rules if any do they follow? Quantum probability theory is a promising new approach to modeling human behavior that is at odds with normative, classical rules. One key advantage of using quantum theory is that it explains multiple types of judgment errors using the same basic machinery, unifying what have previously been thought of as disparate phenomena. In this article, we test predictions from quantum theory related to the co-occurrence of two classic judgment phenomena, order effects and conjunction fallacies, using judgments about real-world events (related to the U.S. presidential primaries). We also show that our data obeys two a priori and parameter free constraints derived from quantum theory. Further, we examine two factors that moderate the effects, cognitive thinking style (as measured by the Cognitive Reflection Test) and political ideology.

Functional heterogeneity of conflict, error, task-switching, and unexpectedness effects within medial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Nee, Derek Evan; Kastner, Sabine; Brown, Joshua W

2011-01-01

The last decade has seen considerable discussion regarding a theoretical account of medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) function with particular focus on the anterior cingulate cortex. The proposed theories have included conflict detection, error likelihood prediction, volatility monitoring, and several distinct theories of error detection. Arguments for and against particular theories often treat mPFC as functionally homogeneous, or at least nearly so, despite some evidence for distinct functional subregions. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to simultaneously contrast multiple effects of error, conflict, and task-switching that have been individually construed in support of various theories. We found overlapping yet functionally distinct subregions of mPFC, with activations related to dominant error, conflict, and task-switching effects successively found along a rostral-ventral to caudal-dorsal gradient within medial prefrontal cortex. Activations in the rostral cingulate zone (RCZ) were strongly correlated with the unexpectedness of outcomes suggesting a role in outcome prediction and preparing control systems to deal with anticipated outcomes. The results as a whole support a resolution of some ongoing debates in that distinct theories may each pertain to corresponding distinct yet overlapping subregions of mPFC. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of counterfactual quantum key distribution using error-correcting theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yan-Bing

2014-10-01

Counterfactual quantum key distribution is an interesting direction in quantum cryptography and has been realized by some researchers. However, it has been pointed that its insecure in information theory when it is used over a high lossy channel. In this paper, we retry its security from a error-correcting theory point of view. The analysis indicates that the security flaw comes from the reason that the error rate in the users' raw key pair is as high as that under the Eve's attack when the loss rate exceeds 50 %.

The Importance of Relying on the Manual: Scoring Error Variance in the WISC-IV Vocabulary Subtest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erdodi, Laszlo A.; Richard, David C. S.; Hopwood, Christopher

2009-01-01

Classical test theory assumes that ability level has no effect on measurement error. Newer test theories, however, argue that the precision of a measurement instrument changes as a function of the examinee's true score. Research has shown that administration errors are common in the Wechsler scales and that subtests requiring subjective scoring…

Numerical Differentiation Methods for Computing Error Covariance Matrices in Item Response Theory Modeling: An Evaluation and a New Proposal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tian, Wei; Cai, Li; Thissen, David; Xin, Tao

2013-01-01

In item response theory (IRT) modeling, the item parameter error covariance matrix plays a critical role in statistical inference procedures. When item parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm, the parameter error covariance matrix is not an automatic by-product of item calibration. Cai proposed the use of Supplemented EM algorithm for…

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Dissociating response conflict and error likelihood in anterior cingulate cortex.

PubMed

Yeung, Nick; Nieuwenhuis, Sander

2009-11-18

Neuroimaging studies consistently report activity in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in conditions of high cognitive demand, leading to the view that ACC plays a crucial role in the control of cognitive processes. According to one prominent theory, the sensitivity of ACC to task difficulty reflects its role in monitoring for the occurrence of competition, or "conflict," between responses to signal the need for increased cognitive control. However, a contrasting theory proposes that ACC is the recipient rather than source of monitoring signals, and that ACC activity observed in relation to task demand reflects the role of this region in learning about the likelihood of errors. Response conflict and error likelihood are typically confounded, making the theories difficult to distinguish empirically. The present research therefore used detailed computational simulations to derive contrasting predictions regarding ACC activity and error rate as a function of response speed. The simulations demonstrated a clear dissociation between conflict and error likelihood: fast response trials are associated with low conflict but high error likelihood, whereas slow response trials show the opposite pattern. Using the N2 component as an index of ACC activity, an EEG study demonstrated that when conflict and error likelihood are dissociated in this way, ACC activity tracks conflict and is negatively correlated with error likelihood. These findings support the conflict-monitoring theory and suggest that, in speeded decision tasks, ACC activity reflects current task demands rather than the retrospective coding of past performance.

Flexible methods for segmentation evaluation: results from CT-based luggage screening.

PubMed

Karimi, Seemeen; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Cosman, Pamela; Martz, Harry

2014-01-01

Imaging systems used in aviation security include segmentation algorithms in an automatic threat recognition pipeline. The segmentation algorithms evolve in response to emerging threats and changing performance requirements. Analysis of segmentation algorithms' behavior, including the nature of errors and feature recovery, facilitates their development. However, evaluation methods from the literature provide limited characterization of the segmentation algorithms. To develop segmentation evaluation methods that measure systematic errors such as oversegmentation and undersegmentation, outliers, and overall errors. The methods must measure feature recovery and allow us to prioritize segments. We developed two complementary evaluation methods using statistical techniques and information theory. We also created a semi-automatic method to define ground truth from 3D images. We applied our methods to evaluate five segmentation algorithms developed for CT luggage screening. We validated our methods with synthetic problems and an observer evaluation. Both methods selected the same best segmentation algorithm. Human evaluation confirmed the findings. The measurement of systematic errors and prioritization helped in understanding the behavior of each segmentation algorithm. Our evaluation methods allow us to measure and explain the accuracy of segmentation algorithms.

Does a better model yield a better argument? An info-gap analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2017-04-01

Theories, models and computations underlie reasoned argumentation in many areas. The possibility of error in these arguments, though of low probability, may be highly significant when the argument is used in predicting the probability of rare high-consequence events. This implies that the choice of a theory, model or computational method for predicting rare high-consequence events must account for the probability of error in these components. However, error may result from lack of knowledge or surprises of various sorts, and predicting the probability of error is highly uncertain. We show that the putatively best, most innovative and sophisticated argument may not actually have the lowest probability of error. Innovative arguments may entail greater uncertainty than more standard but less sophisticated methods, creating an innovation dilemma in formulating the argument. We employ info-gap decision theory to characterize and support the resolution of this problem and present several examples.

The theory precision analyse of RFM localization of satellite remote sensing imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianqing; Xv, Biao

2009-11-01

The tradition method of detecting precision of Rational Function Model(RFM) is to make use of a great deal check points, and it calculates mean square error through comparing calculational coordinate with known coordinate. This method is from theory of probability, through a large number of samples to statistic estimate value of mean square error, we can think its estimate value approaches in its true when samples are well enough. This paper is from angle of survey adjustment, take law of propagation of error as the theory basis, and it calculates theory precision of RFM localization. Then take the SPOT5 three array imagery as experiment data, and the result of traditional method and narrated method in the paper are compared, while has confirmed tradition method feasible, and answered its theory precision question from the angle of survey adjustment.

Human Error In Complex Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Nancy M.; Rouse, William B.

1991-01-01

Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.

Lexico-Semantic Errors of the Learners of English: A Survey of Standard Seven Keiyo-Speaking Primary School Pupils in Keiyo District, Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeptarus, Kipsamo E.; Ngene, Patrick K.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this research was to study the Lexico-semantic errors of the Keiyo-speaking standard seven primary school learners of English as a Second Language (ESL) in Keiyo District, Kenya. This study was guided by two related theories: Error Analysis Theory/Approach by Corder (1971) which approaches L2 learning through a detailed analysis of…

Empathy, theory of mind, and individual differences in the appropriation bias among 4- and 5-year-olds.

PubMed

Ford, Ruth M; Lobao, Sheila N; Macaulay, Catrin; Herdman, Lynsey M

2011-12-01

Evidence that young children often claim ownership of their partner's contributions to an earlier collaborative activity, the appropriation bias, has been attributed to shared intentionality (Cognitive Development (1998) 13, 91-108). The current investigation explored this notion by examining individual differences in the bias among 4- and 5-year-olds as a function of empathy and theory of mind. On two occasions, children joined an adult and two dolls (with each doll being operated by one of the humans) in a picture matching board game before being asked to remember who placed each picture. Children showed a robust appropriation bias despite excellent recognition memory for the studied pictures (Study 1) and particularly in relation to the human sources (Study 2). Whereas higher levels of self-reported empathy were associated with a greater frequency of appropriation errors and fewer correct attributions for pictures placed by the adult and her doll partner, the opposite pattern emerged for theory of mind. Moreover, the positive relations between theory of mind and source monitoring accuracy remained robust after controlling for general ability and inhibitory skills. We consider the implications of these findings for understanding the processes driving the appropriation bias. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Understanding human management of automation errors

PubMed Central

McBride, Sara E.; Rogers, Wendy A.; Fisk, Arthur D.

2013-01-01

Automation has the potential to aid humans with a diverse set of tasks and support overall system performance. Automated systems are not always reliable, and when automation errs, humans must engage in error management, which is the process of detecting, understanding, and correcting errors. However, this process of error management in the context of human-automation interaction is not well understood. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review of the variables that contribute to error management. We examined relevant research in human-automation interaction and human error to identify critical automation, person, task, and emergent variables. We propose a framework for management of automation errors to incorporate and build upon previous models. Further, our analysis highlights variables that may be addressed through design and training to positively influence error management. Additional efforts to understand the error management process will contribute to automation designed and implemented to support safe and effective system performance. PMID:25383042

Understanding human management of automation errors.

PubMed

McBride, Sara E; Rogers, Wendy A; Fisk, Arthur D

2014-01-01

Automation has the potential to aid humans with a diverse set of tasks and support overall system performance. Automated systems are not always reliable, and when automation errs, humans must engage in error management, which is the process of detecting, understanding, and correcting errors. However, this process of error management in the context of human-automation interaction is not well understood. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review of the variables that contribute to error management. We examined relevant research in human-automation interaction and human error to identify critical automation, person, task, and emergent variables. We propose a framework for management of automation errors to incorporate and build upon previous models. Further, our analysis highlights variables that may be addressed through design and training to positively influence error management. Additional efforts to understand the error management process will contribute to automation designed and implemented to support safe and effective system performance.

Guidewire retention following central venous catheterisation: a human factors and safe design investigation.

PubMed

Horberry, Tim; Teng, Yi-Chun; Ward, James; Patil, Vishal; Clarkson, P John

2014-01-01

Central Venous Catheterisation (CVC) has occasionally been associated with cases of retained guidewires in patients after surgery. In theory, this is a completely avoidable complication; however, as with any human procedure, operator error leading to guidewires being occasionally retained cannot be fully eliminated. The work described here investigated the issue in an attempt to better understand it both from an operator and a systems perspective, and to ultimately recommend appropriate safe design solutions that reduce guidewire retention errors. Nine distinct methods were used: observations of the procedure, a literature review, interviewing CVC end-users, task analysis construction, CVC procedural audits, two human reliability assessments, usability heuristics and a comprehensive solution survey with CVC end-users. The three solutions that operators rated most highly, in terms of both practicality and effectiveness, were: making trainees better aware of the potential guidewire complications and strongly emphasising guidewire removal in CVC training, actively checking that the guidewire is present in the waste tray for disposal, and standardising purchase of central line sets so that differences that may affect chances of guidewire loss is minimised. Further work to eliminate/engineer out the possibility of guidewires being retained is proposed.

Artificial organisms as tools for the development of psychological theory: Tolman's lesson.

PubMed

Miglino, Orazio; Gigliotta, Onofrio; Cardaci, Maurizio; Ponticorvo, Michela

2007-12-01

In the 1930s and 1940s, Edward Tolman developed a psychological theory of spatial orientation in rats and humans. He expressed his theory as an automaton (the "schematic sowbug") or what today we would call an "artificial organism." With the technology of the day, he could not implement his model. Nonetheless, he used it to develop empirical predictions which tested with animals in the laboratory. This way of proceeding was in line with scientific practice dating back to Galileo. The way psychologists use artificial organisms in their work today breaks with this tradition. Modern "artificial organisms" are constructed a posteriori, working from experimental or ethological observations. As a result, researchers can use them to confirm a theoretical model or to simulate its operation. But they make no contribution to the actual building of models. In this paper, we try to return to Tolman's original strategy: implementing his theory of "vicarious trial and error" in a simulated robot, forecasting the robot's behavior and conducting experiments that verify or falsify these predictions.

Explaining errors in children's questions.

PubMed

Rowland, Caroline F

2007-07-01

The ability to explain the occurrence of errors in children's speech is an essential component of successful theories of language acquisition. The present study tested some generativist and constructivist predictions about error on the questions produced by ten English-learning children between 2 and 5 years of age. The analyses demonstrated that, as predicted by some generativist theories [e.g. Santelmann, L., Berk, S., Austin, J., Somashekar, S. & Lust. B. (2002). Continuity and development in the acquisition of inversion in yes/no questions: dissociating movement and inflection, Journal of Child Language, 29, 813-842], questions with auxiliary DO attracted higher error rates than those with modal auxiliaries. However, in wh-questions, questions with modals and DO attracted equally high error rates, and these findings could not be explained in terms of problems forming questions with why or negated auxiliaries. It was concluded that the data might be better explained in terms of a constructivist account that suggests that entrenched item-based constructions may be protected from error in children's speech, and that errors occur when children resort to other operations to produce questions [e.g. Dabrowska, E. (2000). From formula to schema: the acquisition of English questions. Cognitive Liguistics, 11, 83-102; Rowland, C. F. & Pine, J. M. (2000). Subject-auxiliary inversion errors and wh-question acquisition: What children do know? Journal of Child Language, 27, 157-181; Tomasello, M. (2003). Constructing a language: A usage-based theory of language acquisition. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press]. However, further work on constructivist theory development is required to allow researchers to make predictions about the nature of these operations.

Estimation of fast and slow wave properties in cancellous bone using Prony's method and curve fitting.

PubMed

Wear, Keith A

2013-04-01

The presence of two longitudinal waves in poroelastic media is predicted by Biot's theory and has been confirmed experimentally in through-transmission measurements in cancellous bone. Estimation of attenuation coefficients and velocities of the two waves is challenging when the two waves overlap in time. The modified least squares Prony's (MLSP) method in conjuction with curve-fitting (MLSP + CF) is tested using simulations based on published values for fast and slow wave attenuation coefficients and velocities in cancellous bone from several studies in bovine femur, human femur, and human calcaneus. The search algorithm is accelerated by exploiting correlations among search parameters. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated as a function of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). For a typical experimental SNR (40 dB), the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) for one example (human femur) with fast and slow waves separated by approximately half of a pulse duration were 1 m/s (slow wave velocity), 4 m/s (fast wave velocity), 0.4 dB/cm MHz (slow wave attenuation slope), and 1.7 dB/cm MHz (fast wave attenuation slope). The MLSP + CF method is fast (requiring less than 2 s at SNR = 40 dB on a consumer-grade notebook computer) and is flexible with respect to the functional form of the parametric model for the transmission coefficient. The MLSP + CF method provides sufficient accuracy and precision for many applications such that experimental error is a greater limiting factor than estimation error.

Human error and human factors engineering in health care.

PubMed

Welch, D L

1997-01-01

Human error is inevitable. It happens in health care systems as it does in all other complex systems, and no measure of attention, training, dedication, or punishment is going to stop it. The discipline of human factors engineering (HFE) has been dealing with the causes and effects of human error since the 1940's. Originally applied to the design of increasingly complex military aircraft cockpits, HFE has since been effectively applied to the problem of human error in such diverse systems as nuclear power plants, NASA spacecraft, the process control industry, and computer software. Today the health care industry is becoming aware of the costs of human error and is turning to HFE for answers. Just as early experimental psychologists went beyond the label of "pilot error" to explain how the design of cockpits led to air crashes, today's HFE specialists are assisting the health care industry in identifying the causes of significant human errors in medicine and developing ways to eliminate or ameliorate them. This series of articles will explore the nature of human error and how HFE can be applied to reduce the likelihood of errors and mitigate their effects.

Synchronizing theta oscillations with direct-current stimulation strengthens adaptive control in the human brain.

PubMed

Reinhart, Robert M G; Zhu, Julia; Park, Sohee; Woodman, Geoffrey F

2015-07-28

Executive control and flexible adjustment of behavior following errors are essential to adaptive functioning. Loss of adaptive control may be a biomarker of a wide range of neuropsychiatric disorders, particularly in the schizophrenia spectrum. Here, we provide support for the view that oscillatory activity in the frontal cortex underlies adaptive adjustments in cognitive processing following errors. Compared with healthy subjects, patients with schizophrenia exhibited low frequency oscillations with abnormal temporal structure and an absence of synchrony over medial-frontal and lateral-prefrontal cortex following errors. To demonstrate that these abnormal oscillations were the origin of the impaired adaptive control in patients with schizophrenia, we applied noninvasive dc electrical stimulation over the medial-frontal cortex. This noninvasive stimulation descrambled the phase of the low-frequency neural oscillations that synchronize activity across cortical regions. Following stimulation, the behavioral index of adaptive control was improved such that patients were indistinguishable from healthy control subjects. These results provide unique causal evidence for theories of executive control and cortical dysconnectivity in schizophrenia.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

Abstract Objectives: This paper discusses the differences between classical human reliability analysis (HRA) dependence and the full spectrum of probabilistic dependence. Positive influence suggests an error increases the likelihood of subsequent errors or success increases the likelihood of subsequent success. Currently the typical method for dependence in HRA implements the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) positive dependence equations. This assumes that the dependence between two human failure events varies at discrete levels between zero and complete dependence (as defined by THERP). Dependence in THERP does not consistently span dependence values between 0 and 1. In contrast, probabilistic dependencemore » employs Bayes Law, and addresses a continuous range of dependence. Methods: Using the laws of probability, complete dependence and maximum positive dependence do not always agree. Maximum dependence is when two events overlap to their fullest amount. Maximum negative dependence is the smallest amount that two events can overlap. When the minimum probability of two events overlapping is less than independence, negative dependence occurs. For example, negative dependence is when an operator fails to actuate Pump A, thereby increasing his or her chance of actuating Pump B. The initial error actually increases the chance of subsequent success. Results: Comparing THERP and probability theory yields different results in certain scenarios; with the latter addressing negative dependence. Given that most human failure events are rare, the minimum overlap is typically 0. And when the second event is smaller than the first event the max dependence is less than 1, as defined by Bayes Law. As such alternative dependence equations are provided along with a look-up table defining the maximum and maximum negative dependence given the probability of two events. Conclusions: THERP dependence has been used ubiquitously for decades, and has provided approximations of the dependencies between two events. Since its inception, computational abilities have increased exponentially, and alternative approaches that follow the laws of probability dependence need to be implemented. These new approaches need to consider negative dependence and identify when THERP output is not appropriate.« less

Gestalt theory: implications for radiology education.

PubMed

Koontz, Nicholas A; Gunderman, Richard B

2008-05-01

The Gestalt theory of modern psychology is grounded in the ideas that holistic rather than atomistic approaches are necessary to understand the mind, and that the mental whole is greater than the sum of its component parts. Although the Gestalt school fell out of favor due to its descriptive rather than explanatory nature, it permanently changed our understanding of perception. For the radiologist, such fundamental Gestalt concepts as figure-ground relationships and a variety of "grouping principles" (the laws of closure, proximity, similarity, common region, continuity, and symmetry) are ubiquitous in daily work, not to mention in art and personal life. By considering the applications of these principles and the stereotypical ways in which humans perceive visual stimuli, a radiology learner may incur fewer errors of diagnosis. This article serves to introduce several important principles of Gestalt theory, identify examples of these principles in widely recognizable fine art, and highlight their implications for radiology education.

A manual control theory analysis of vertical situation displays for STOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baron, S.; Levison, W. H.

1973-01-01

Pilot-vehicle-display systems theory is applied to the analysis of proposed vertical situation displays for manual control in approach-to-landing of a STOL aircraft. The effects of display variables on pilot workload and on total closed-loop system performance was calculated using an optimal-control model for the human operator. The steep approach of an augmentor wing jet STOL aircraft was analyzed. Both random turbulence and mean-wind shears were considered. Linearized perturbation equations were used to describe longitudinal and lateral dynamics of the aircraft. The basic display configuration was one that abstracted the essential status information (including glide-slope and localizer errors) of an EADI display. Proposed flight director displays for both longitudinal and lateral control were also investigated.

Applications of integrated human error identification techniques on the chemical cylinder change task.

PubMed

Cheng, Ching-Min; Hwang, Sheue-Ling

2015-03-01

This paper outlines the human error identification (HEI) techniques that currently exist to assess latent human errors. Many formal error identification techniques have existed for years, but few have been validated to cover latent human error analysis in different domains. This study considers many possible error modes and influential factors, including external error modes, internal error modes, psychological error mechanisms, and performance shaping factors, and integrates several execution procedures and frameworks of HEI techniques. The case study in this research was the operational process of changing chemical cylinders in a factory. In addition, the integrated HEI method was used to assess the operational processes and the system's reliability. It was concluded that the integrated method is a valuable aid to develop much safer operational processes and can be used to predict human error rates on critical tasks in the plant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Statistics is not enough: revisiting Ronald A. Fisher's critique (1936) of Mendel's experimental results (1866).

PubMed

Pilpel, Avital

2007-09-01

This paper is concerned with the role of rational belief change theory in the philosophical understanding of experimental error. Today, philosophers seek insight about error in the investigation of specific experiments, rather than in general theories. Nevertheless, rational belief change theory adds to our understanding of just such cases: R. A. Fisher's criticism of Mendel's experiments being a case in point. After an historical introduction, the main part of this paper investigates Fisher's paper from the point of view of rational belief change theory: what changes of belief about Mendel's experiment does Fisher go through and with what justification. It leads to surprising insights about what Fisher had done right and wrong, and, more generally, about the limits of statistical methods in detecting error.

Bootstrap Estimates of Standard Errors in Generalizability Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tong, Ye; Brennan, Robert L.

2007-01-01

Estimating standard errors of estimated variance components has long been a challenging task in generalizability theory. Researchers have speculated about the potential applicability of the bootstrap for obtaining such estimates, but they have identified problems (especially bias) in using the bootstrap. Using Brennan's bias-correcting procedures…

Beck's cognitive theory and the response style theory of depression in adolescents with and without mild to borderline intellectual disability.

PubMed

Weeland, Martine M; Nijhof, Karin S; Otten, R; Vermaes, Ignace P R; Buitelaar, Jan K

2017-10-01

This study tests the validity of Beck's cognitive theory and Nolen-Hoeksema's response style theory of depression in adolescents with and without MBID. The relationship between negative cognitive errors (Beck), response styles (Nolen-Hoeksema) and depressive symptoms was examined in 135 adolescents using linear regression. The cognitive error 'underestimation of the ability to cope' was more prevalent among adolescents with MBID than among adolescents with average intelligence. This was the only negative cognitive error that predicted depressive symptoms. There were no differences between groups in the prevalence of the three response styles. In line with the theory, ruminating was positively and problem-solving was negatively related to depressive symptoms. Distractive response styles were not related to depressive symptoms. The relationship between response styles, cognitive errors and depressive symptoms were similar for both groups. The main premises of both theories of depression are equally applicable to adolescents with and without MBID. The cognitive error 'Underestimation of the ability to cope' poses a specific risk factor for developing a depression for adolescents with MBID and requires special attention in treatment and prevention of depression. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS?: Despite the high prevalence of depression among adolescents with MBID, little is known about the etiology and cognitive processes that play a role in the development of depression in this group. The current paper fills this gap in research by examining the core tenets of two important theories on the etiology of depression (Beck's cognitive theory and Nolen-Hoeksema's response style theory) in a clinical sample of adolescents with and without MBID. This paper demonstrated that the theories are equally applicable to adolescents with MBID, as to adolescents with average intellectual ability. However, the cognitive bias 'underestimation of the ability to cope' was the only cognitive error related to depressive symptoms, and was much more prevalent among adolescents with MBID than among adolescents with average intellectual ability. This suggests that underestimating one's coping skills may be a unique risk factor for depression among adolescents with MBID. This knowledge is important in understanding the causes and perpetuating mechanisms of depression in adolescents with MBID, and for the development of prevention- and treatment programs for adolescents with MBID. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and equipoise: at interplay between epistemology, decision making and ethics.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-10-01

In recent years, various authors have proposed that the concept of equipoise be abandoned because it conflates the practice of clinical care with clinical research. At the same time, the equipoise opponents acknowledge the necessity of clinical research if there are unresolved uncertainties about the effects of proposed healthcare interventions. As equipoise represents just 1 measure of uncertainty, proposals to abandon equipoise while maintaining a requirement for addressing uncertainties are contradictory and ultimately not valid. As acknowledgment and articulation of uncertainties represent key scientific and moral requirements for human experimentation, the concept of equipoise remains the most useful framework to link the theory of human experimentation with the theory of rational choice. In this article, I show how uncertainty (equipoise) is at the intersection between epistemology, decision making and ethics of clinical research. In particular, I show how our formulation of responses to uncertainties of hoped-for benefits and unknown harms of testing is a function of the way humans cognitively process information. This approach is based on the view that considerations of ethics and rationality cannot be separated. I analyze the response to uncertainties as it relates to the dual-processing theory, which postulates that rational approach to (clinical research) decision making depends both on analytical, deliberative processes embodied in scientific method (system II), and good human intuition (system I). Ultimately, our choices can only become wiser if we understand a close and intertwined relationship between irreducible uncertainty, inevitable errors and unavoidable injustice.

Uncertainty and Equipoise: At Interplay Between Epistemology, Decision-Making and Ethics

PubMed Central

Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-01-01

In recent years, various authors have proposed that the concept of equipoise be abandoned since it conflates the practice of clinical care with clinical research. At the same time, the equipoise opponents acknowledge the necessity of clinical research if there are unresolved uncertainties about the effects of proposed healthcare interventions. Since equipoise represents just one measure of uncertainty, proposals to abandon equipoise while maintaining a requirement for addressing uncertainties are contradictory and ultimately not valid. As acknowledgment and articulation of uncertainties represent key scientific and moral requirements for human experimentation, the concept of equipoise remains the most useful framework to link the theory of human experimentation with the theory of rational choice. In this paper, I show how uncertainty (equipoise) is at the intersection between epistemology, decision-making and ethics of clinical research. In particular, I show how our formulation of responses to uncertainties of hoped-for benefits and unknown harms of testing is a function of the way humans cognitively process information. This approach is based on the view that considerations of ethics and rationality cannot be separated. I analyze the response to uncertainties as it relates to the dual-processing theory, which postulates that rational approach to (clinical research) decision-making depends both on analytical, deliberative processes embodied in scientific method (system II) and “good” human intuition (system I). Ultimately, our choices can only become wiser if we understand a close and intertwined relationship between irreducible uncertainty, inevitable errors, and unavoidable injustice. PMID:21817885

Human error in airway facilities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This report examines human errors in Airway Facilities (AF) with the intent of preventing these errors from being : passed on to the new Operations Control Centers. To effectively manage errors, they first have to be identified. : Human factors engin...

The role of hand of error and stimulus orientation in the relationship between worry and error-related brain activity: Implications for theory and practice.

PubMed

Lin, Yanli; Moran, Tim P; Schroder, Hans S; Moser, Jason S

2015-10-01

Anxious apprehension/worry is associated with exaggerated error monitoring; however, the precise mechanisms underlying this relationship remain unclear. The current study tested the hypothesis that the worry-error monitoring relationship involves left-lateralized linguistic brain activity by examining the relationship between worry and error monitoring, indexed by the error-related negativity (ERN), as a function of hand of error (Experiment 1) and stimulus orientation (Experiment 2). Results revealed that worry was exclusively related to the ERN on right-handed errors committed by the linguistically dominant left hemisphere. Moreover, the right-hand ERN-worry relationship emerged only when stimuli were presented horizontally (known to activate verbal processes) but not vertically. Together, these findings suggest that the worry-ERN relationship involves left hemisphere verbal processing, elucidating a potential mechanism to explain error monitoring abnormalities in anxiety. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © 2015 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Abstract Syntax in Sentence Production: Evidence from Stem-Exchange Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Liane Wardlow; Ferreira, Victor S.

2010-01-01

Three experiments tested theories of syntactic representation by assessing "stem-exchange" errors ("hates the record"[right arrow]"records the hate"). Previous research has shown that in stem exchanges, speakers pronounce intended nouns ("REcord") as verbs ("reCORD"), yielding syntactically well-formed utterances. By "lexically based" theories,…

GY SAMPLING THEORY AND GEOSTATISTICS: ALTERNATE MODELS OF VARIABILITY IN CONTINUOUS MEDIA

EPA Science Inventory

In the sampling theory developed by Pierre Gy, sample variability is modeled as the sum of a set of seven discrete error components. The variogram used in geostatisties provides an alternate model in which several of Gy's error components are combined in a continuous mode...

Latent human error analysis and efficient improvement strategies by fuzzy TOPSIS in aviation maintenance tasks.

PubMed

Chiu, Ming-Chuan; Hsieh, Min-Chih

2016-05-01

The purposes of this study were to develop a latent human error analysis process, to explore the factors of latent human error in aviation maintenance tasks, and to provide an efficient improvement strategy for addressing those errors. First, we used HFACS and RCA to define the error factors related to aviation maintenance tasks. Fuzzy TOPSIS with four criteria was applied to evaluate the error factors. Results show that 1) adverse physiological states, 2) physical/mental limitations, and 3) coordination, communication, and planning are the factors related to airline maintenance tasks that could be addressed easily and efficiently. This research establishes a new analytic process for investigating latent human error and provides a strategy for analyzing human error using fuzzy TOPSIS. Our analysis process complements shortages in existing methodologies by incorporating improvement efficiency, and it enhances the depth and broadness of human error analysis methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Volumetric error modeling, identification and compensation based on screw theory for a large multi-axis propeller-measuring machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Xuemin; Liu, Hongqi; Mao, Xinyong; Li, Bin; He, Songping; Peng, Fangyu

2018-05-01

Large multi-axis propeller-measuring machines have two types of geometric error, position-independent geometric errors (PIGEs) and position-dependent geometric errors (PDGEs), which both have significant effects on the volumetric error of the measuring tool relative to the worktable. This paper focuses on modeling, identifying and compensating for the volumetric error of the measuring machine. A volumetric error model in the base coordinate system is established based on screw theory considering all the geometric errors. In order to fully identify all the geometric error parameters, a new method for systematic measurement and identification is proposed. All the PIGEs of adjacent axes and the six PDGEs of the linear axes are identified with a laser tracker using the proposed model. Finally, a volumetric error compensation strategy is presented and an inverse kinematic solution for compensation is proposed. The final measuring and compensation experiments have further verified the efficiency and effectiveness of the measuring and identification method, indicating that the method can be used in volumetric error compensation for large machine tools.

Towards a balanced social psychology: causes, consequences, and cures for the problem-seeking approach to social behavior and cognition.

PubMed

Krueger, Joachim I; Funder, David C

2004-06-01

Mainstream social psychology focuses on how people characteristically violate norms of action through social misbehaviors such as conformity with false majority judgments, destructive obedience, and failures to help those in need. Likewise, they are seen to violate norms of reasoning through cognitive errors such as misuse of social information, self-enhancement, and an over-readiness to attribute dispositional characteristics. The causes of this negative research emphasis include the apparent informativeness of norm violation, the status of good behavior and judgment as unconfirmable null hypotheses, and the allure of counter-intuitive findings. The shortcomings of this orientation include frequently erroneous imputations of error, findings of mutually contradictory errors, incoherent interpretations of error, an inability to explain the sources of behavioral or cognitive achievement, and the inhibition of generalized theory. Possible remedies include increased attention to the complete range of behavior and judgmental accomplishment, analytic reforms emphasizing effect sizes and Bayesian inference, and a theoretical paradigm able to account for both the sources of accomplishment and of error. A more balanced social psychology would yield not only a more positive view of human nature, but also an improved understanding of the bases of good behavior and accurate judgment, coherent explanations of occasional lapses, and theoretically grounded suggestions for improvement.

Field errors in hybrid insertion devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schlueter, R.D.

1995-02-01

Hybrid magnet theory as applied to the error analyses used in the design of Advanced Light Source (ALS) insertion devices is reviewed. Sources of field errors in hybrid insertion devices are discussed.

Information systems and human error in the lab.

PubMed

Bissell, Michael G

2004-01-01

Health system costs in clinical laboratories are incurred daily due to human error. Indeed, a major impetus for automating clinical laboratories has always been the opportunity it presents to simultaneously reduce cost and improve quality of operations by decreasing human error. But merely automating these processes is not enough. To the extent that introduction of these systems results in operators having less practice in dealing with unexpected events or becoming deskilled in problemsolving, however new kinds of error will likely appear. Clinical laboratories could potentially benefit by integrating findings on human error from modern behavioral science into their operations. Fully understanding human error requires a deep understanding of human information processing and cognition. Predicting and preventing negative consequences requires application of this understanding to laboratory operations. Although the occurrence of a particular error at a particular instant cannot be absolutely prevented, human error rates can be reduced. The following principles are key: an understanding of the process of learning in relation to error; understanding the origin of errors since this knowledge can be used to reduce their occurrence; optimal systems should be forgiving to the operator by absorbing errors, at least for a time; although much is known by industrial psychologists about how to write operating procedures and instructions in ways that reduce the probability of error, this expertise is hardly ever put to use in the laboratory; and a feedback mechanism must be designed into the system that enables the operator to recognize in real time that an error has occurred.

Is Comprehension Necessary for Error Detection? A Conflict-Based Account of Monitoring in Speech Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nozari, Nazbanou; Dell, Gary S.; Schwartz, Myrna F.

2011-01-01

Despite the existence of speech errors, verbal communication is successful because speakers can detect (and correct) their errors. The standard theory of speech-error detection, the perceptual-loop account, posits that the comprehension system monitors production output for errors. Such a comprehension-based monitor, however, cannot explain the…

Rasmussen's legacy: A paradigm change in engineering for safety.

PubMed

Leveson, Nancy G

2017-03-01

This paper describes three applications of Rasmussen's idea to systems engineering practice. The first is the application of the abstraction hierarchy to engineering specifications, particularly requirements specification. The second is the use of Rasmussen's ideas in safety modeling and analysis to create a new, more powerful type of accident causation model that extends traditional models to better handle human-operated, software-intensive, sociotechnical systems. Because this new model has a formal, mathematical foundation built on systems theory (as was Rasmussen's original model), new modeling and analysis tools become possible. The third application is to engineering hazard analysis. Engineers have traditionally either omitted human from consideration in system hazard analysis or have treated them rather superficially, for example, that they behave randomly. Applying Rasmussen's model of human error to a powerful new hazard analysis technique allows human behavior to be included in engineering hazard analysis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calculating Interaction Energies Using First Principle Theories: Consideration of Basis Set Superposition Error and Fragment Relaxation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, J. Philip; Sorensen, Jennifer B.; Kirschner, Karl N.

2007-01-01

The analysis explains the basis set superposition error (BSSE) and fragment relaxation involved in calculating the interaction energies using various first principle theories. Interacting the correlated fragment and increasing the size of the basis set can help in decreasing the BSSE to a great extent.

Flexible methods for segmentation evaluation: Results from CT-based luggage screening

PubMed Central

Karimi, Seemeen; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Cosman, Pamela; Martz, Harry

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Imaging systems used in aviation security include segmentation algorithms in an automatic threat recognition pipeline. The segmentation algorithms evolve in response to emerging threats and changing performance requirements. Analysis of segmentation algorithms’ behavior, including the nature of errors and feature recovery, facilitates their development. However, evaluation methods from the literature provide limited characterization of the segmentation algorithms. OBJECTIVE To develop segmentation evaluation methods that measure systematic errors such as oversegmentation and undersegmentation, outliers, and overall errors. The methods must measure feature recovery and allow us to prioritize segments. METHODS We developed two complementary evaluation methods using statistical techniques and information theory. We also created a semi-automatic method to define ground truth from 3D images. We applied our methods to evaluate five segmentation algorithms developed for CT luggage screening. We validated our methods with synthetic problems and an observer evaluation. RESULTS Both methods selected the same best segmentation algorithm. Human evaluation confirmed the findings. The measurement of systematic errors and prioritization helped in understanding the behavior of each segmentation algorithm. CONCLUSIONS Our evaluation methods allow us to measure and explain the accuracy of segmentation algorithms. PMID:24699346

A survey of mindset theories of intelligence and medical error self-reporting among pediatric housestaff and faculty.

PubMed

Jegathesan, Mithila; Vitberg, Yaffa M; Pusic, Martin V

2016-02-11

Intelligence theory research has illustrated that people hold either "fixed" (intelligence is immutable) or "growth" (intelligence can be improved) mindsets and that these views may affect how people learn throughout their lifetime. Little is known about the mindsets of physicians, and how mindset may affect their lifetime learning and integration of feedback. Our objective was to determine if pediatric physicians are of the "fixed" or "growth" mindset and whether individual mindset affects perception of medical error reporting.  We sent an anonymous electronic survey to pediatric residents and attending pediatricians at a tertiary care pediatric hospital. Respondents completed the "Theories of Intelligence Inventory" which classifies individuals on a 6-point scale ranging from 1 (Fixed Mindset) to 6 (Growth Mindset). Subsequent questions collected data on respondents' recall of medical errors by self or others. We received 176/349 responses (50 %). Participants were equally distributed between mindsets with 84 (49 %) classified as "fixed" and 86 (51 %) as "growth". Residents, fellows and attendings did not differ in terms of mindset. Mindset did not correlate with the small number of reported medical errors. There is no dominant theory of intelligence (mindset) amongst pediatric physicians. The distribution is similar to that seen in the general population. Mindset did not correlate with error reports.

Intuitive theories of information: beliefs about the value of redundancy.

PubMed

Soll, J B

1999-03-01

In many situations, quantity estimates from multiple experts or diagnostic instruments must be collected and combined. Normatively, and all else equal, one should value information sources that are nonredundant, in the sense that correlation in forecast errors should be minimized. Past research on the preference for redundancy has been inconclusive. While some studies have suggested that people correctly place higher value on uncorrelated inputs when collecting estimates, others have shown that people either ignore correlation or, in some cases, even prefer it. The present experiments show that the preference for redundancy depends on one's intuitive theory of information. The most common intuitive theory identified is the Error Tradeoff Model (ETM), which explicitly distinguishes between measurement error and bias. According to ETM, measurement error can only be averaged out by consulting the same source multiple times (normatively false), and bias can only be averaged out by consulting different sources (normatively true). As a result, ETM leads people to prefer redundant estimates when the ratio of measurement error to bias is relatively high. Other participants favored different theories. Some adopted the normative model, while others were reluctant to mathematically average estimates from different sources in any circumstance. In a post hoc analysis, science majors were more likely than others to subscribe to the normative model. While tentative, this result lends insight into how intuitive theories might develop and also has potential ramifications for how statistical concepts such as correlation might best be learned and internalized. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Stochastic Models of Human Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

Operational Interventions to Maintenance Error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanki, Barbara G.; Walter, Diane; Dulchinos, VIcki

1997-01-01

A significant proportion of aviation accidents and incidents are known to be tied to human error. However, research of flight operational errors has shown that so-called pilot error often involves a variety of human factors issues and not a simple lack of individual technical skills. In aircraft maintenance operations, there is similar concern that maintenance errors which may lead to incidents and accidents are related to a large variety of human factors issues. Although maintenance error data and research are limited, industry initiatives involving human factors training in maintenance have become increasingly accepted as one type of maintenance error intervention. Conscientious efforts have been made in re-inventing the team7 concept for maintenance operations and in tailoring programs to fit the needs of technical opeRAtions. Nevertheless, there remains a dual challenge: 1) to develop human factors interventions which are directly supported by reliable human error data, and 2) to integrate human factors concepts into the procedures and practices of everyday technical tasks. In this paper, we describe several varieties of human factors interventions and focus on two specific alternatives which target problems related to procedures and practices; namely, 1) structured on-the-job training and 2) procedure re-design. We hope to demonstrate that the key to leveraging the impact of these solutions comes from focused interventions; that is, interventions which are derived from a clear understanding of specific maintenance errors, their operational context and human factors components.

Reduction of Maintenance Error Through Focused Interventions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanki, Barbara G.; Walter, Diane; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

It is well known that a significant proportion of aviation accidents and incidents are tied to human error. In flight operations, research of operational errors has shown that so-called "pilot error" often involves a variety of human factors issues and not a simple lack of individual technical skills. In aircraft maintenance operations, there is similar concern that maintenance errors which may lead to incidents and accidents are related to a large variety of human factors issues. Although maintenance error data and research are limited, industry initiatives involving human factors training in maintenance have become increasingly accepted as one type of maintenance error intervention. Conscientious efforts have been made in re-inventing the "team" concept for maintenance operations and in tailoring programs to fit the needs of technical operations. Nevertheless, there remains a dual challenge: to develop human factors interventions which are directly supported by reliable human error data, and to integrate human factors concepts into the procedures and practices of everyday technical tasks. In this paper, we describe several varieties of human factors interventions and focus on two specific alternatives which target problems related to procedures and practices; namely, 1) structured on-the-job training and 2) procedure re-design. We hope to demonstrate that the key to leveraging the impact of these solutions comes from focused interventions; that is, interventions which are derived from a clear understanding of specific maintenance errors, their operational context and human factors components.

Human Factors Process Task Analysis: Liquid Oxygen Pump Acceptance Test Procedure at the Advanced Technology Development Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diorio, Kimberly A.; Voska, Ned (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HF PFMEA). HF PFMEA includes the following 10 steps: Describe mission; Define System; Identify human-machine; List human actions; Identify potential errors; Identify factors that effect error; Determine likelihood of error; Determine potential effects of errors; Evaluate risk; Generate solutions (manage error). The presentation also describes how this analysis was applied to a liquid oxygen pump acceptance test.

The contributions of human factors on human error in Malaysia aviation maintenance industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padil, H.; Said, M. N.; Azizan, A.

2018-05-01

Aviation maintenance is a multitasking activity in which individuals perform varied tasks under constant pressure to meet deadlines as well as challenging work conditions. These situational characteristics combined with human factors can lead to various types of human related errors. The primary objective of this research is to develop a structural relationship model that incorporates human factors, organizational factors, and their impact on human errors in aviation maintenance. Towards that end, a questionnaire was developed which was administered to Malaysian aviation maintenance professionals. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach was used in this study utilizing AMOS software. Results showed that there were a significant relationship of human factors on human errors and were tested in the model. Human factors had a partial effect on organizational factors while organizational factors had a direct and positive impact on human errors. It was also revealed that organizational factors contributed to human errors when coupled with human factors construct. This study has contributed to the advancement of knowledge on human factors effecting safety and has provided guidelines for improving human factors performance relating to aviation maintenance activities and could be used as a reference for improving safety performance in the Malaysian aviation maintenance companies.

A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatanaka, Iwao

2000-01-01

The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

Safety Metrics for Human-Computer Controlled Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveson, Nancy G; Hatanaka, Iwao

2000-01-01

The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems.This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana

2014-01-01

Most businesses recognize that people will make mistakes and assume errors are just part of the cost of doing business, but does it need to be? Companies with high risk, or major consequences, should consider the effect of human error. In a variety of industries, Human Errors have caused costly failures and workplace injuries. These have included: airline mishaps, medical malpractice, administration of medication and major oil spills have all been blamed on human error. A technique to mitigate or even eliminate some of these costly human errors is the use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Various methodologies are available to perform Human Reliability Assessments that range from identifying the most likely areas for concern to detailed assessments with human error failure probabilities calculated. Which methodology to use would be based on a variety of factors that would include: 1) how people react and act in different industries, and differing expectations based on industries standards, 2) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 3) type and availability of data and 4) how the industry views risk & reliability influences ( types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks versus cost based concerns). The Human Reliability Assessments should be the first step to reduce, mitigate or eliminate the costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify human error risks allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these risks and prevent costly failures.

Linguistic pattern analysis of misspellings of typically developing writers in grades 1-9.

PubMed

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Sillian, Elaine R; Berninger, Virginia W; Dow, Michael

2012-12-01

A mixed-methods approach, evaluating triple word-form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in Grades 1-9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade-level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between Grades 4 and 5. Similar error types were noted across age groups, but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Triple word-form theory was supported. By Grade 1, orthographic errors predominated, and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects nonlinear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling.

On the Lennard-Jones and Devonshire theory for solid state thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustig, Rolf

2017-06-01

The Lennard-Jones and Devonshire theory is developed into a self-consistent scheme for essentially complete thermodynamic information. The resulting methodology is compared with molecular simulation of the Lennard-Jones system in the face-centred-cubic solid state over an excessive range of state points. The thermal and caloric equations of state are in almost perfect agreement along the entire fluid-solid coexistence lines over more than six orders of magnitude in pressure. For homogeneous densities greater than twice the solid triple point density, the theory is essentially exact for derivatives of the Helmholtz energy. However, the fluid-solid phase equilibria are in disagreement with simulation. It is shown that the theory is in error by an additive constant to the Helmholtz energy A/(NkBT). Empirical inclusion of the error term makes all fluid-solid equilibria indistinguishable from exact results. Some arguments about the origin of the error are given.

Sleep Deprivation.

PubMed

Abrams, Robert M

2015-09-01

Sleep deprivation occurs when inadequate sleep leads to decreased performance, inadequate alertness, and deterioration in health. It is incompletely understood why humans need sleep, although some theories include energy conservation, restoration, and information processing. Sleep deprivation has many deleterious health effects. Residency programs have enacted strict work restrictions because of medically related errors due to sleep deprivation. Because obstetrics is an unpredictable specialty with long irregular hours, enacting a hospitalist program enhances patient safety, decreases malpractice risk, and improves the physician's quality of life by allowing obstetricians to get sufficient rest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis on the dynamic error for optoelectronic scanning coordinate measurement network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Shendong; Yang, Linghui; Lin, Jiarui; Guo, Siyang; Ren, Yongjie

2018-01-01

Large-scale dynamic three-dimension coordinate measurement technique is eagerly demanded in equipment manufacturing. Noted for advantages of high accuracy, scale expandability and multitask parallel measurement, optoelectronic scanning measurement network has got close attention. It is widely used in large components jointing, spacecraft rendezvous and docking simulation, digital shipbuilding and automated guided vehicle navigation. At present, most research about optoelectronic scanning measurement network is focused on static measurement capacity and research about dynamic accuracy is insufficient. Limited by the measurement principle, the dynamic error is non-negligible and restricts the application. The workshop measurement and positioning system is a representative which can realize dynamic measurement function in theory. In this paper we conduct deep research on dynamic error resources and divide them two parts: phase error and synchronization error. Dynamic error model is constructed. Based on the theory above, simulation about dynamic error is carried out. Dynamic error is quantized and the rule of volatility and periodicity has been found. Dynamic error characteristics are shown in detail. The research result lays foundation for further accuracy improvement.

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2014-01-01

Human error cannot be defined unambiguously in advance of it happening, it often becomes an error after the fact. The same action can result in a tragic accident for one situation or a heroic action given a more favorable outcome. People often forget that we employ humans in business and industry for the flexibility and capability to change when needed. In complex systems, operations are driven by their specifications of the system and the system structure. People provide the flexibility to make it work. Human error has been reported as being responsible for 60%-80% of failures, accidents and incidents in high-risk industries. We don't have to accept that all human errors are inevitable. Through the use of some basic techniques, many potential human error events can be addressed. There are actions that can be taken to reduce the risk of human error.

Bayesian learning for spatial filtering in an EEG-based brain-computer interface.

PubMed

Zhang, Haihong; Yang, Huijuan; Guan, Cuntai

2013-07-01

Spatial filtering for EEG feature extraction and classification is an important tool in brain-computer interface. However, there is generally no established theory that links spatial filtering directly to Bayes classification error. To address this issue, this paper proposes and studies a Bayesian analysis theory for spatial filtering in relation to Bayes error. Following the maximum entropy principle, we introduce a gamma probability model for describing single-trial EEG power features. We then formulate and analyze the theoretical relationship between Bayes classification error and the so-called Rayleigh quotient, which is a function of spatial filters and basically measures the ratio in power features between two classes. This paper also reports our extensive study that examines the theory and its use in classification, using three publicly available EEG data sets and state-of-the-art spatial filtering techniques and various classifiers. Specifically, we validate the positive relationship between Bayes error and Rayleigh quotient in real EEG power features. Finally, we demonstrate that the Bayes error can be practically reduced by applying a new spatial filter with lower Rayleigh quotient.

Emulation as an Integrating Principle for Cognition

PubMed Central

Colder, Brian

2011-01-01

Emulations, defined as ongoing internal representations of potential actions and the futures those actions are expected to produce, play a critical role in directing human bodily activities. Studies of gross motor behavior, perception, allocation of attention, response to errors, interoception, and homeostatic activities, and higher cognitive reasoning suggest that the proper execution of all these functions relies on emulations. Further evidence supports the notion that reinforcement learning in humans is aimed at updating emulations, and that action selection occurs via the advancement of preferred emulations toward realization of their action and environmental prediction. Emulations are hypothesized to exist as distributed active networks of neurons in cortical and sub-cortical structures. This manuscript ties together previously unrelated theories of the role of prediction in different aspects of human information processing to create an integrated framework for cognition. PMID:21660288

Asymptotic Standard Errors for Item Response Theory True Score Equating of Polytomous Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cher Wong, Cheow

2015-01-01

Building on previous works by Lord and Ogasawara for dichotomous items, this article proposes an approach to derive the asymptotic standard errors of item response theory true score equating involving polytomous items, for equivalent and nonequivalent groups of examinees. This analytical approach could be used in place of empirical methods like…

The Importance of the Assumption of Uncorrelated Errors in Psychometric Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.; Patelis, Thanos

2015-01-01

A critical discussion of the assumption of uncorrelated errors in classical psychometric theory and its applications is provided. It is pointed out that this assumption is essential for a number of fundamental results and underlies the concept of parallel tests, the Spearman-Brown's prophecy and the correction for attenuation formulas as well as…

Errors without Conflict: Implications for Performance Monitoring Theories of Anterior Cingulate Cortex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Veen, V.; Holroyd, C.B.; Cohen, J.D.; Stenger, V.A.; Carter, C.S.

2004-01-01

Recent theories of the neural basis of performance monitoring have emphasized a central role for the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Replicating an earlier event-related potential (ERP) study, which showed an error feedback negativity that was modeled as having an ACC generator, we used event-related fMRI to investigate whether the ACC would…

Standard errors in forest area

Treesearch

Joseph McCollum

2002-01-01

I trace the development of standard error equations for forest area, beginning with the theory behind double sampling and the variance of a product. The discussion shifts to the particular problem of forest area - at which time the theory becomes relevant. There are subtle difficulties in figuring out which variance of a product equation should be used. The equations...

SPSS and SAS programs for generalizability theory analyses.

PubMed

Mushquash, Christopher; O'Connor, Brian P

2006-08-01

The identification and reduction of measurement errors is a major challenge in psychological testing. Most investigators rely solely on classical test theory for assessing reliability, whereas most experts have long recommended using generalizability theory instead. One reason for the common neglect of generalizability theory is the absence of analytic facilities for this purpose in popular statistical software packages. This article provides a brief introduction to generalizability theory, describes easy to use SPSS, SAS, and MATLAB programs for conducting the recommended analyses, and provides an illustrative example, using data (N = 329) for the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale. Program output includes variance components, relative and absolute errors and generalizability coefficients, coefficients for D studies, and graphs of D study results.

Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

PubMed Central

Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

2015-01-01

Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Eiji; Kitaoka, Akiyoshi; Sakamoto, Kiwako; Yasugi, Masaki; Tanaka, Kenta

2018-01-01

The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning) predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research. PMID:29599739

Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction.

PubMed

Watanabe, Eiji; Kitaoka, Akiyoshi; Sakamoto, Kiwako; Yasugi, Masaki; Tanaka, Kenta

2018-01-01

The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning) predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

Managing human fallibility in critical aerospace situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tew, Larry

2014-11-01

Human fallibility is pervasive in the aerospace industry with over 50% of errors attributed to human error. Consider the benefits to any organization if those errors were significantly reduced. Aerospace manufacturing involves high value, high profile systems with significant complexity and often repetitive build, assembly, and test operations. In spite of extensive analysis, planning, training, and detailed procedures, human factors can cause unexpected errors. Handling such errors involves extensive cause and corrective action analysis and invariably schedule slips and cost growth. We will discuss success stories, including those associated with electro-optical systems, where very significant reductions in human fallibility errors were achieved after receiving adapted and specialized training. In the eyes of company and customer leadership, the steps used to achieve these results lead to in a major culture change in both the workforce and the supporting management organization. This approach has proven effective in other industries like medicine, firefighting, law enforcement, and aviation. The roadmap to success and the steps to minimize human error are known. They can be used by any organization willing to accept human fallibility and take a proactive approach to incorporate the steps needed to manage and minimize error.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks.

PubMed

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-04-22

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve approximately 30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks

PubMed Central

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D.; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K.; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D. Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-01-01

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve ≈30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations. PMID:18427123

Optimal information transfer in enzymatic networks: A field theoretic formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Himadri S.; Hinczewski, Michael; Thirumalai, D.

2017-07-01

Signaling in enzymatic networks is typically triggered by environmental fluctuations, resulting in a series of stochastic chemical reactions, leading to corruption of the signal by noise. For example, information flow is initiated by binding of extracellular ligands to receptors, which is transmitted through a cascade involving kinase-phosphatase stochastic chemical reactions. For a class of such networks, we develop a general field-theoretic approach to calculate the error in signal transmission as a function of an appropriate control variable. Application of the theory to a simple push-pull network, a module in the kinase-phosphatase cascade, recovers the exact results for error in signal transmission previously obtained using umbral calculus [Hinczewski and Thirumalai, Phys. Rev. X 4, 041017 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevX.4.041017]. We illustrate the generality of the theory by studying the minimal errors in noise reduction in a reaction cascade with two connected push-pull modules. Such a cascade behaves as an effective three-species network with a pseudointermediate. In this case, optimal information transfer, resulting in the smallest square of the error between the input and output, occurs with a time delay, which is given by the inverse of the decay rate of the pseudointermediate. Surprisingly, in these examples the minimum error computed using simulations that take nonlinearities and discrete nature of molecules into account coincides with the predictions of a linear theory. In contrast, there are substantial deviations between simulations and predictions of the linear theory in error in signal propagation in an enzymatic push-pull network for a certain range of parameters. Inclusion of second-order perturbative corrections shows that differences between simulations and theoretical predictions are minimized. Our study establishes that a field theoretic formulation of stochastic biological signaling offers a systematic way to understand error propagation in networks of arbitrary complexity.

Defining the Relationship Between Human Error Classes and Technology Intervention Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.; Rantanen, Eas M.

2003-01-01

The modus operandi in addressing human error in aviation systems is predominantly that of technological interventions or fixes. Such interventions exhibit considerable variability both in terms of sophistication and application. Some technological interventions address human error directly while others do so only indirectly. Some attempt to eliminate the occurrence of errors altogether whereas others look to reduce the negative consequences of these errors. In any case, technological interventions add to the complexity of the systems and may interact with other system components in unforeseeable ways and often create opportunities for novel human errors. Consequently, there is a need to develop standards for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the biggest benefit to flight safety as well as to mitigate any adverse ramifications. The purpose of this project was to help define the relationship between human error and technological interventions, with the ultimate goal of developing a set of standards for evaluating or measuring the potential benefits of new human error fixes.

Applying lessons learned to enhance human performance and reduce human error for ISS operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, W.R.

1999-01-01

A major component of reliability, safety, and mission success for space missions is ensuring that the humans involved (flight crew, ground crew, mission control, etc.) perform their tasks and functions as required. This includes compliance with training and procedures during normal conditions, and successful compensation when malfunctions or unexpected conditions occur. A very significant issue that affects human performance in space flight is human error. Human errors can invalidate carefully designed equipment and procedures. If certain errors combine with equipment failures or design flaws, mission failure or loss of life can occur. The control of human error during operation ofmore » the International Space Station (ISS) will be critical to the overall success of the program. As experience from Mir operations has shown, human performance plays a vital role in the success or failure of long duration space missions. The Department of Energy{close_quote}s Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is developing a systematic approach to enhance human performance and reduce human errors for ISS operations. This approach is based on the systematic identification and evaluation of lessons learned from past space missions such as Mir to enhance the design and operation of ISS. This paper will describe previous INEEL research on human error sponsored by NASA and how it can be applied to enhance human reliability for ISS. {copyright} {ital 1999 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Applying lessons learned to enhance human performance and reduce human error for ISS operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, W.R.

1998-09-01

A major component of reliability, safety, and mission success for space missions is ensuring that the humans involved (flight crew, ground crew, mission control, etc.) perform their tasks and functions as required. This includes compliance with training and procedures during normal conditions, and successful compensation when malfunctions or unexpected conditions occur. A very significant issue that affects human performance in space flight is human error. Human errors can invalidate carefully designed equipment and procedures. If certain errors combine with equipment failures or design flaws, mission failure or loss of life can occur. The control of human error during operation ofmore » the International Space Station (ISS) will be critical to the overall success of the program. As experience from Mir operations has shown, human performance plays a vital role in the success or failure of long duration space missions. The Department of Energy`s Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is developed a systematic approach to enhance human performance and reduce human errors for ISS operations. This approach is based on the systematic identification and evaluation of lessons learned from past space missions such as Mir to enhance the design and operation of ISS. This paper describes previous INEEL research on human error sponsored by NASA and how it can be applied to enhance human reliability for ISS.« less

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Solokiewicz, R. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Hall, J. M.; Bailey, J. C.; Krider, E. P.; Bateman, M. G.; Boccippio, D. J.

2003-01-01

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

A study of the local pressure field in turbulent shear flow and its relation to aerodynamic noise generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, B. G.; Planchon, H. P., Jr.

1973-01-01

Work during the period of this report has been in three areas: (1) pressure transducer error analysis, (2) fluctuating velocity and pressure measurements in the NASA Lewis 6-inch diameter quiet jet facility, and (3) measurement analysis. A theory was developed and experimentally verified to quantify the pressure transducer velocity interference error. The theory and supporting experimental evidence show that the errors are a function of the velocity field's turbulent structure. It is shown that near the mixing layer center the errors are negligible. Turbulent velocity and pressure measurements were made in the NASA Lewis quiet jet facility. Some preliminary results are included.

Error and Uncertainty Quantification in the Numerical Simulation of Complex Fluid Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2010-01-01

The failure of numerical simulation to predict physical reality is often a direct consequence of the compounding effects of numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation and physical model uncertainty resulting from inexact knowledge and/or statistical representation. In this topical lecture, we briefly review systematic theories for quantifying numerical errors and restricted forms of model uncertainty occurring in simulations of fluid flow. A goal of this lecture is to elucidate both positive and negative aspects of applying these theories to practical fluid flow problems. Finite-element and finite-volume calculations of subsonic and hypersonic fluid flow are presented to contrast the differing roles of numerical error and model uncertainty. for these problems.

Structured methods for identifying and correcting potential human errors in aviation operations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, W.R.

1997-10-01

Human errors have been identified as the source of approximately 60% of the incidents and accidents that occur in commercial aviation. It can be assumed that a very large number of human errors occur in aviation operations, even though in most cases the redundancies and diversities built into the design of aircraft systems prevent the errors from leading to serious consequences. In addition, when it is acknowledged that many system failures have their roots in human errors that occur in the design phase, it becomes apparent that the identification and elimination of potential human errors could significantly decrease the risksmore » of aviation operations. This will become even more critical during the design of advanced automation-based aircraft systems as well as next-generation systems for air traffic management. Structured methods to identify and correct potential human errors in aviation operations have been developed and are currently undergoing testing at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL).« less

Control by model error estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Likins, P. W.; Skelton, R. E.

1976-01-01

Modern control theory relies upon the fidelity of the mathematical model of the system. Truncated modes, external disturbances, and parameter errors in linear system models are corrected by augmenting to the original system of equations an 'error system' which is designed to approximate the effects of such model errors. A Chebyshev error system is developed for application to the Large Space Telescope (LST).

Research on effects of phase error in phase-shifting interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongjun; Wang, Zhao; Zhao, Hong; Tian, Ailing; Liu, Bingcai

2007-12-01

Referring to phase-shifting interferometry technology, the phase shifting error from the phase shifter is the main factor that directly affects the measurement accuracy of the phase shifting interferometer. In this paper, the resources and sorts of phase shifting error were introduction, and some methods to eliminate errors were mentioned. Based on the theory of phase shifting interferometry, the effects of phase shifting error were analyzed in detail. The Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) as a new shifter has advantage as that the phase shifting can be controlled digitally without any mechanical moving and rotating element. By changing coded image displayed on LCD, the phase shifting in measuring system was induced. LCD's phase modulation characteristic was analyzed in theory and tested. Based on Fourier transform, the effect model of phase error coming from LCD was established in four-step phase shifting interferometry. And the error range was obtained. In order to reduce error, a new error compensation algorithm was put forward. With this method, the error can be obtained by process interferogram. The interferogram can be compensated, and the measurement results can be obtained by four-step phase shifting interferogram. Theoretical analysis and simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach to improve measurement accuracy.

Human errors and violations in computer and information security: the viewpoint of network administrators and security specialists.

PubMed

Kraemer, Sara; Carayon, Pascale

2007-03-01

This paper describes human errors and violations of end users and network administration in computer and information security. This information is summarized in a conceptual framework for examining the human and organizational factors contributing to computer and information security. This framework includes human error taxonomies to describe the work conditions that contribute adversely to computer and information security, i.e. to security vulnerabilities and breaches. The issue of human error and violation in computer and information security was explored through a series of 16 interviews with network administrators and security specialists. The interviews were audio taped, transcribed, and analyzed by coding specific themes in a node structure. The result is an expanded framework that classifies types of human error and identifies specific human and organizational factors that contribute to computer and information security. Network administrators tended to view errors created by end users as more intentional than unintentional, while errors created by network administrators as more unintentional than intentional. Organizational factors, such as communication, security culture, policy, and organizational structure, were the most frequently cited factors associated with computer and information security.

Intervention strategies for the management of human error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiener, Earl L.

1993-01-01

This report examines the management of human error in the cockpit. The principles probably apply as well to other applications in the aviation realm (e.g. air traffic control, dispatch, weather, etc.) as well as other high-risk systems outside of aviation (e.g. shipping, high-technology medical procedures, military operations, nuclear power production). Management of human error is distinguished from error prevention. It is a more encompassing term, which includes not only the prevention of error, but also a means of disallowing an error, once made, from adversely affecting system output. Such techniques include: traditional human factors engineering, improvement of feedback and feedforward of information from system to crew, 'error-evident' displays which make erroneous input more obvious to the crew, trapping of errors within a system, goal-sharing between humans and machines (also called 'intent-driven' systems), paperwork management, and behaviorally based approaches, including procedures, standardization, checklist design, training, cockpit resource management, etc. Fifteen guidelines for the design and implementation of intervention strategies are included.

Exploring Reactions to Pilot Reliability Certification and Changing Attitudes on the Reduction of Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boedigheimer, Dan

2010-01-01

Approximately 70% of aviation accidents are attributable to human error. The greatest opportunity for further improving aviation safety is found in reducing human errors in the cockpit. The purpose of this quasi-experimental, mixed-method research was to evaluate whether there was a difference in pilot attitudes toward reducing human error in the…

Utilizing measure-based feedback in control-mastery theory: A clinical error.

PubMed

Snyder, John; Aafjes-van Doorn, Katie

2016-09-01

Clinical errors and ruptures are an inevitable part of clinical practice. Often times, therapists are unaware that a clinical error or rupture has occurred, leaving no space for repair, and potentially leading to patient dropout and/or less effective treatment. One way to overcome our blind spots is by frequently and systematically collecting measure-based feedback from the patient. Patient feedback measures that focus on the process of psychotherapy such as the Patient's Experience of Attunement and Responsiveness scale (PEAR) can be used in conjunction with treatment outcome measures such as the Outcome Questionnaire 45.2 (OQ-45.2) to monitor the patient's therapeutic experience and progress. The regular use of these types of measures can aid clinicians in the identification of clinical errors and the associated patient deterioration that might otherwise go unnoticed and unaddressed. The current case study describes an instance of clinical error that occurred during the 2-year treatment of a highly traumatized young woman. The clinical error was identified using measure-based feedback and subsequently understood and addressed from the theoretical standpoint of the control-mastery theory of psychotherapy. An alternative hypothetical response is also presented and explained using control-mastery theory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Fostering the Intelligent Novice: Learning from Errors with Metacognitive Tutoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mathan, Santosh A.; Koedinger, Kenneth R.

2005-01-01

This article explores 2 important aspects of metacognition: (a) how students monitor their ongoing performance to detect and correct errors and (b) how students reflect on those errors to learn from them. Although many instructional theories have advocated providing students with immediate feedback on errors, some researchers have argued that…

A Mechanism for Error Detection in Speeded Response Time Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holroyd, Clay B.; Yeung, Nick; Coles, Michael G. H.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2005-01-01

The concept of error detection plays a central role in theories of executive control. In this article, the authors present a mechanism that can rapidly detect errors in speeded response time tasks. This error monitor assigns values to the output of cognitive processes involved in stimulus categorization and response generation and detects errors…

Evaluating a medical error taxonomy.

PubMed

Brixey, Juliana; Johnson, Todd R; Zhang, Jiajie

2002-01-01

Healthcare has been slow in using human factors principles to reduce medical errors. The Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) recognizes that a lack of attention to human factors during product development may lead to errors that have the potential for patient injury, or even death. In response to the need for reducing medication errors, the National Coordinating Council for Medication Errors Reporting and Prevention (NCC MERP) released the NCC MERP taxonomy that provides a standard language for reporting medication errors. This project maps the NCC MERP taxonomy of medication error to MedWatch medical errors involving infusion pumps. Of particular interest are human factors associated with medical device errors. The NCC MERP taxonomy of medication errors is limited in mapping information from MEDWATCH because of the focus on the medical device and the format of reporting.

An Evaluation of Departmental Radiation Oncology Incident Reports: Anticipating a National Reporting System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terezakis, Stephanie A., E-mail: stereza1@jhmi.edu; Harris, Kendra M.; Ford, Eric

Purpose: Systems to ensure patient safety are of critical importance. The electronic incident reporting systems (IRS) of 2 large academic radiation oncology departments were evaluated for events that may be suitable for submission to a national reporting system (NRS). Methods and Materials: All events recorded in the combined IRS were evaluated from 2007 through 2010. Incidents were graded for potential severity using the validated French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) 5-point scale. These incidents were categorized into 7 groups: (1) human error, (2) software error, (3) hardware error, (4) error in communication between 2 humans, (5) error at the human-software interface,more » (6) error at the software-hardware interface, and (7) error at the human-hardware interface. Results: Between the 2 systems, 4407 incidents were reported. Of these events, 1507 (34%) were considered to have the potential for clinical consequences. Of these 1507 events, 149 (10%) were rated as having a potential severity of ≥2. Of these 149 events, the committee determined that 79 (53%) of these events would be submittable to a NRS of which the majority was related to human error or to the human-software interface. Conclusions: A significant number of incidents were identified in this analysis. The majority of events in this study were related to human error and to the human-software interface, further supporting the need for a NRS to facilitate field-wide learning and system improvement.« less

Sleep quality, posttraumatic stress, depression, and human errors in train drivers: a population-based nationwide study in South Korea.

PubMed

Jeon, Hong Jin; Kim, Ji-Hae; Kim, Bin-Na; Park, Seung Jin; Fava, Maurizio; Mischoulon, David; Kang, Eun-Ho; Roh, Sungwon; Lee, Dongsoo

2014-12-01

Human error is defined as an unintended error that is attributable to humans rather than machines, and that is important to avoid to prevent accidents. We aimed to investigate the association between sleep quality and human errors among train drivers. Cross-sectional. Population-based. A sample of 5,480 subjects who were actively working as train drivers were recruited in South Korea. The participants were 4,634 drivers who completed all questionnaires (response rate 84.6%). None. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), and the Korean Occupational Stress Scale (KOSS). Of 4,634 train drivers, 349 (7.5%) showed more than one human error per 5 y. Human errors were associated with poor sleep quality, higher PSQI total scores, short sleep duration at night, and longer sleep latency. Among train drivers with poor sleep quality, those who experienced severe posttraumatic stress showed a significantly higher number of human errors than those without. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that human errors were significantly associated with poor sleep quality and posttraumatic stress, whereas there were no significant associations with depression, trait and state anxiety, and work stress after adjusting for age, sex, education years, marital status, and career duration. Poor sleep quality was found to be associated with more human errors in train drivers, especially in those who experienced severe posttraumatic stress. © 2014 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Neurocomputational mechanisms of prosocial learning and links to empathy.

PubMed

Lockwood, Patricia L; Apps, Matthew A J; Valton, Vincent; Viding, Essi; Roiser, Jonathan P

2016-08-30

Reinforcement learning theory powerfully characterizes how we learn to benefit ourselves. In this theory, prediction errors-the difference between a predicted and actual outcome of a choice-drive learning. However, we do not operate in a social vacuum. To behave prosocially we must learn the consequences of our actions for other people. Empathy, the ability to vicariously experience and understand the affect of others, is hypothesized to be a critical facilitator of prosocial behaviors, but the link between empathy and prosocial behavior is still unclear. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) participants chose between different stimuli that were probabilistically associated with rewards for themselves (self), another person (prosocial), or no one (control). Using computational modeling, we show that people can learn to obtain rewards for others but do so more slowly than when learning to obtain rewards for themselves. fMRI revealed that activity in a posterior portion of the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex/basal forebrain (sgACC) drives learning only when we are acting in a prosocial context and signals a prosocial prediction error conforming to classical principles of reinforcement learning theory. However, there is also substantial variability in the neural and behavioral efficiency of prosocial learning, which is predicted by trait empathy. More empathic people learn more quickly when benefitting others, and their sgACC response is the most selective for prosocial learning. We thus reveal a computational mechanism driving prosocial learning in humans. This framework could provide insights into atypical prosocial behavior in those with disorders of social cognition.

On the relationship between aerosol content and errors in telephotometer experiments.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. W. L.

1971-01-01

This paper presents an invariant imbedding theory of multiple scattering phenomena contributing to errors in telephotometer experiments. The theory indicates that there is a simple relationship between the magnitudes of the errors introduced by successive orders of scattering and it is shown that for all optical thicknesses each order can be represented by a coefficient which depends on the field of view of the telescope and the properties of the scattering medium. The verification of the theory and the derivation of the coefficients have been accomplished by a Monte Carlo program. Both monodisperse and polydisperse systems of Mie scatterers have been treated. The results demonstrate that for a given optical thickness the coefficients increase strongly with the mean particle size particularly for the smaller fields of view.

Experiences from the testing of a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Experience gained in testing a theory for modelling groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

2002-01-01

Usually, small-scale model error is present in groundwater modelling because the model only represents average system characteristics having the same form as the drift, and small-scale variability is neglected. These errors cause the true errors of a regression model to be correlated. Theory and an example show that the errors also contribute to bias in the estimates of model parameters. This bias originates from model nonlinearity. In spite of this bias, predictions of hydraulic head are nearly unbiased if the model intrinsic nonlinearity is small. Individual confidence and prediction intervals are accurate if the t-statistic is multiplied by a correction factor. The correction factor can be computed from the true error second moment matrix, which can be determined when the stochastic properties of the system characteristics are known.

Linguistic Pattern Analysis of Misspellings of Typically Developing Writers in Grades 1 to 9

PubMed Central

Bahr, Ruth Huntley; Silliman, Elaine R.; Berninger, Virginia W.; Dow, Michael

2012-01-01

Purpose A mixed methods approach, evaluating triple word form theory, was used to describe linguistic patterns of misspellings. Method Spelling errors were taken from narrative and expository writing samples provided by 888 typically developing students in grades 1–9. Errors were coded by category (phonological, orthographic, and morphological) and specific linguistic feature affected. Grade level effects were analyzed with trend analysis. Qualitative analyses determined frequent error types and how use of specific linguistic features varied across grades. Results Phonological, orthographic, and morphological errors were noted across all grades, but orthographic errors predominated. Linear trends revealed developmental shifts in error proportions for the orthographic and morphological categories between grades 4–5. Similar error types were noted across age groups but the nature of linguistic feature error changed with age. Conclusions Triple word-form theory was supported. By grade 1, orthographic errors predominated and phonological and morphological error patterns were evident. Morphological errors increased in relative frequency in older students, probably due to a combination of word-formation issues and vocabulary growth. These patterns suggest that normal spelling development reflects non-linear growth and that it takes a long time to develop a robust orthographic lexicon that coordinates phonology, orthography, and morphology and supports word-specific, conventional spelling. PMID:22473834

The perceptual shaping of anticipatory actions.

PubMed

Maffei, Giovanni; Herreros, Ivan; Sanchez-Fibla, Marti; Friston, Karl J; Verschure, Paul F M J

2017-12-20

Humans display anticipatory motor responses to minimize the adverse effects of predictable perturbations. A widely accepted explanation for this behaviour relies on the notion of an inverse model that, learning from motor errors, anticipates corrective responses. Here, we propose and validate the alternative hypothesis that anticipatory control can be realized through a cascade of purely sensory predictions that drive the motor system, reflecting the causal sequence of the perceptual events preceding the error. We compare both hypotheses in a simulated anticipatory postural adjustment task. We observe that adaptation in the sensory domain, but not in the motor one, supports the robust and generalizable anticipatory control characteristic of biological systems. Our proposal unites the neurobiology of the cerebellum with the theory of active inference and provides a concrete implementation of its core tenets with great relevance both to our understanding of biological control systems and, possibly, to their emulation in complex artefacts. © 2017 The Author(s).

Voodoo Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Robert

2011-03-01

A remarkable scientific result that appears to violate natural law may portend a revolutionary advance in human knowledge. It is, however, more likely an experimental screw up. Error is normal; it can be reduced by repeating measurements and better design of controls, but the success and credibility of science is anchored in a culture of openness. Ideas and observations are freely exposed to independent testing and evaluation by others. What emerges is the book of nature. On its pages we find, if not a simple world, at least an orderly world, in which everything from the birth of stars to falling in love is governed by the same natural laws. These laws cannot be circumvented by any amount of piety or cleverness, they can be understood - with the possible exception of String Theory. For those who elect to work outside the scientific community, errors may go unrecognized. We will examine examples of this, including claims of perpetual motion and cancer caused by cell-phone radiation.

Medial-Frontal Stimulation Enhances Learning in Schizophrenia by Restoring Prediction Error Signaling.

PubMed

Reinhart, Robert M G; Zhu, Julia; Park, Sohee; Woodman, Geoffrey F

2015-09-02

Posterror learning, associated with medial-frontal cortical recruitment in healthy subjects, is compromised in neuropsychiatric disorders. Here we report novel evidence for the mechanisms underlying learning dysfunctions in schizophrenia. We show that, by noninvasively passing direct current through human medial-frontal cortex, we could enhance the event-related potential related to learning from mistakes (i.e., the error-related negativity), a putative index of prediction error signaling in the brain. Following this causal manipulation of brain activity, the patients learned a new task at a rate that was indistinguishable from healthy individuals. Moreover, the severity of delusions interacted with the efficacy of the stimulation to improve learning. Our results demonstrate a causal link between disrupted prediction error signaling and inefficient learning in schizophrenia. These findings also demonstrate the feasibility of nonpharmacological interventions to address cognitive deficits in neuropsychiatric disorders. When there is a difference between what we expect to happen and what we actually experience, our brains generate a prediction error signal, so that we can map stimuli to responses and predict outcomes accurately. Theories of schizophrenia implicate abnormal prediction error signaling in the cognitive deficits of the disorder. Here, we combine noninvasive brain stimulation with large-scale electrophysiological recordings to establish a causal link between faulty prediction error signaling and learning deficits in schizophrenia. We show that it is possible to improve learning rate, as well as the neural signature of prediction error signaling, in patients to a level quantitatively indistinguishable from that of healthy subjects. The results provide mechanistic insight into schizophrenia pathophysiology and suggest a future therapy for this condition. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3512232-09$15.00/0.

Synthesis of robust nonlinear autopilots using differential game theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, P. K. A.

1991-01-01

A synthesis technique for handling unmodeled disturbances in nonlinear control law synthesis was advanced using differential game theory. Two types of modeling inaccuracies can be included in the formulation. The first is a bias-type error, while the second is the scale-factor-type error in the control variables. The disturbances were assumed to satisfy an integral inequality constraint. Additionally, it was assumed that they act in such a way as to maximize a quadratic performance index. Expressions for optimal control and worst-case disturbance were then obtained using optimal control theory.

Analyzing human errors in flight mission operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruno, Kristin J.; Welz, Linda L.; Barnes, G. Michael; Sherif, Josef

1993-01-01

A long-term program is in progress at JPL to reduce cost and risk of flight mission operations through a defect prevention/error management program. The main thrust of this program is to create an environment in which the performance of the total system, both the human operator and the computer system, is optimized. To this end, 1580 Incident Surprise Anomaly reports (ISA's) from 1977-1991 were analyzed from the Voyager and Magellan projects. A Pareto analysis revealed that 38 percent of the errors were classified as human errors. A preliminary cluster analysis based on the Magellan human errors (204 ISA's) is presented here. The resulting clusters described the underlying relationships among the ISA's. Initial models of human error in flight mission operations are presented. Next, the Voyager ISA's will be scored and included in the analysis. Eventually, these relationships will be used to derive a theoretically motivated and empirically validated model of human error in flight mission operations. Ultimately, this analysis will be used to make continuous process improvements continuous process improvements to end-user applications and training requirements. This Total Quality Management approach will enable the management and prevention of errors in the future.

Human Error and the International Space Station: Challenges and Triumphs in Science Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Samantha S.; Simpson, Beau C.

2016-01-01

Any system with a human component is inherently risky. Studies in human factors and psychology have repeatedly shown that human operators will inevitably make errors, regardless of how well they are trained. Onboard the International Space Station (ISS) where crew time is arguably the most valuable resource, errors by the crew or ground operators can be costly to critical science objectives. Operations experts at the ISS Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC), located at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, have learned that from payload concept development through execution, there are countless opportunities to introduce errors that can potentially result in costly losses of crew time and science. To effectively address this challenge, we must approach the design, testing, and operation processes with two specific goals in mind. First, a systematic approach to error and human centered design methodology should be implemented to minimize opportunities for user error. Second, we must assume that human errors will be made and enable rapid identification and recoverability when they occur. While a systematic approach and human centered development process can go a long way toward eliminating error, the complete exclusion of operator error is not a reasonable expectation. The ISS environment in particular poses challenging conditions, especially for flight controllers and astronauts. Operating a scientific laboratory 250 miles above the Earth is a complicated and dangerous task with high stakes and a steep learning curve. While human error is a reality that may never be fully eliminated, smart implementation of carefully chosen tools and techniques can go a long way toward minimizing risk and increasing the efficiency of NASA's space science operations.

Error analysis and correction of discrete solutions from finite element codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thurston, G. A.; Stein, P. A.; Knight, N. F., Jr.; Reissner, J. E.

1984-01-01

Many structures are an assembly of individual shell components. Therefore, results for stresses and deflections from finite element solutions for each shell component should agree with the equations of shell theory. This paper examines the problem of applying shell theory to the error analysis and the correction of finite element results. The general approach to error analysis and correction is discussed first. Relaxation methods are suggested as one approach to correcting finite element results for all or parts of shell structures. Next, the problem of error analysis of plate structures is examined in more detail. The method of successive approximations is adapted to take discrete finite element solutions and to generate continuous approximate solutions for postbuckled plates. Preliminary numerical results are included.

Spiral-bevel geometry and gear train precision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litvin, F. L.; Coy, J. J.

1983-01-01

A new aproach to the solution of determination of surface principal curvatures and directions is proposed. Direct relationships between the principal curvatures and directions of the tool surface and those of the principal curvatures and directions of generated gear surface are obtained. The principal curvatures and directions of geartooth surface are obtained without using the complicated equations of these surfaces. A general theory of the train kinematical errors exerted by manufacturing and assembly errors is discussed. Two methods for the determination of the train kinematical errors can be worked out: (1) with aid of a computer, and (2) with a approximate method. Results from noise and vibration measurement conducted on a helicopter transmission are used to illustrate the principals contained in the theory of kinematic errors.

AAA gunnermodel based on observer theory. [predicting a gunner's tracking response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kou, R. S.; Glass, B. C.; Day, C. N.; Vikmanis, M. M.

1978-01-01

The Luenberger observer theory is used to develop a predictive model of a gunner's tracking response in antiaircraft artillery systems. This model is composed of an observer, a feedback controller and a remnant element. An important feature of the model is that the structure is simple, hence a computer simulation requires only a short execution time. A parameter identification program based on the least squares curve fitting method and the Gauss Newton gradient algorithm is developed to determine the parameter values of the gunner model. Thus, a systematic procedure exists for identifying model parameters for a given antiaircraft tracking task. Model predictions of tracking errors are compared with human tracking data obtained from manned simulation experiments. Model predictions are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for several flyby and maneuvering target trajectories.

Comment on "Infants' perseverative search errors are induced by pragmatic misinterpretation".

PubMed

Spencer, John P; Dineva, Evelina; Smith, Linda B

2009-09-25

Topál et al. (Reports, 26 September 2008, p. 1831) proposed that infants' perseverative search errors can be explained by ostensive cues from the experimenter. We use the dynamic field theory to test the proposal that infants encode locations more weakly when social cues are present. Quantitative simulations show that this account explains infants' performance without recourse to the theory of natural pedagogy.

Modifying Spearman's Attenuation Equation to Yield Partial Corrections for Measurement Error--With Application to Sample Size Calculations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicewander, W. Alan

2018-01-01

Spearman's correction for attenuation (measurement error) corrects a correlation coefficient for measurement errors in either-or-both of two variables, and follows from the assumptions of classical test theory. Spearman's equation removes all measurement error from a correlation coefficient which translates into "increasing the reliability of…

The Relevance of Second Language Acquisition Theory to the Written Error Correction Debate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polio, Charlene

2012-01-01

The controversies surrounding written error correction can be traced to Truscott (1996) in his polemic against written error correction. He claimed that empirical studies showed that error correction was ineffective and that this was to be expected "given the nature of the correction process and "the nature of language learning" (p. 328, emphasis…

Correcting quantum errors with entanglement.

PubMed

Brun, Todd; Devetak, Igor; Hsieh, Min-Hsiu

2006-10-20

We show how entanglement shared between encoder and decoder can simplify the theory of quantum error correction. The entanglement-assisted quantum codes we describe do not require the dual-containing constraint necessary for standard quantum error-correcting codes, thus allowing us to "quantize" all of classical linear coding theory. In particular, efficient modern classical codes that attain the Shannon capacity can be made into entanglement-assisted quantum codes attaining the hashing bound (closely related to the quantum capacity). For systems without large amounts of shared entanglement, these codes can also be used as catalytic codes, in which a small amount of initial entanglement enables quantum communication.

Microgravity

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-01-22

One concern about human adaptation to space is how returning from the microgravity of orbit to Earth can affect an astronaut's ability to fly safely. There are monitors and infrared video cameras to measure eye movements without having to affect the crew member. A computer screen provides moving images which the eye tracks while the brain determines what it is seeing. A video camera records movement of the subject's eyes. Researchers can then correlate perception and response. Test subjects perceive different images when a moving object is covered by a mask that is visible or invisible (above). Early results challenge the accepted theory that smooth pursuit -- the fluid eye movement that humans and primates have -- does not involve the higher brain. NASA results show that: Eye movement can predict human perceptual performance, smooth pursuit and saccadic (quick or ballistic) movement share some signal pathways, and common factors can make both smooth pursuit and visual perception produce errors in motor responses.

Understanding Visible Perception

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

One concern about human adaptation to space is how returning from the microgravity of orbit to Earth can affect an astronaut's ability to fly safely. There are monitors and infrared video cameras to measure eye movements without having to affect the crew member. A computer screen provides moving images which the eye tracks while the brain determines what it is seeing. A video camera records movement of the subject's eyes. Researchers can then correlate perception and response. Test subjects perceive different images when a moving object is covered by a mask that is visible or invisible (above). Early results challenge the accepted theory that smooth pursuit -- the fluid eye movement that humans and primates have -- does not involve the higher brain. NASA results show that: Eye movement can predict human perceptual performance, smooth pursuit and saccadic (quick or ballistic) movement share some signal pathways, and common factors can make both smooth pursuit and visual perception produce errors in motor responses.

Applying Cognitive Psychology to User Interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durrani, Sabeen; Durrani, Qaiser S.

This paper explores some key aspects of cognitive psychology that may be mapped onto user interfaces. Major focus in existing user interface guidelines is on consistency, simplicity, feedback, system messages, display issues, navigation, colors, graphics, visibility and error prevention [8-10]. These guidelines are effective indesigning user interfaces. However, these guidelines do not handle the issues that may arise due to the innate structure of human brain and human limitations. For example, where to place graphics on the screen so that user can easily process them and what kind of background should be given on the screen according to the limitation of human motor system. In this paper we have collected some available guidelines from the area of cognitive psychology [1, 5, 7]. In addition, we have extracted few guidelines from theories and studies of cognitive psychology [3, 11] which may be mapped to user interfaces.

Defining the Relationship Between Human Error Classes and Technology Intervention Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.; Rantanen, Esa; Crisp, Vicki K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

One of the main factors in all aviation accidents is human error. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), therefore, has identified several human-factors safety technologies to address this issue. Some technologies directly address human error either by attempting to reduce the occurrence of errors or by mitigating the negative consequences of errors. However, new technologies and system changes may also introduce new error opportunities or even induce different types of errors. Consequently, a thorough understanding of the relationship between error classes and technology "fixes" is crucial for the evaluation of intervention strategies outlined in the AvSP, so that resources can be effectively directed to maximize the benefit to flight safety. The purpose of the present project, therefore, was to examine the repositories of human factors data to identify the possible relationship between different error class and technology intervention strategies. The first phase of the project, which is summarized here, involved the development of prototype data structures or matrices that map errors onto "fixes" (and vice versa), with the hope of facilitating the development of standards for evaluating safety products. Possible follow-on phases of this project are also discussed. These additional efforts include a thorough and detailed review of the literature to fill in the data matrix and the construction of a complete database and standards checklists.

A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, V.

1993-01-01

The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

Development and implementation of a human accuracy program in patient foodservice.

PubMed

Eden, S H; Wood, S M; Ptak, K M

1987-04-01

For many years, industry has utilized the concept of human error rates to monitor and minimize human errors in the production process. A consistent quality-controlled product increases consumer satisfaction and repeat purchase of product. Administrative dietitians have applied the concepts of using human error rates (the number of errors divided by the number of opportunities for error) at four hospitals, with a total bed capacity of 788, within a tertiary-care medical center. Human error rate was used to monitor and evaluate trayline employee performance and to evaluate layout and tasks of trayline stations, in addition to evaluating employees in patient service areas. Long-term employees initially opposed the error rate system with some hostility and resentment, while newer employees accepted the system. All employees now believe that the constant feedback given by supervisors enhances their self-esteem and productivity. Employee error rates are monitored daily and are used to counsel employees when necessary; they are also utilized during annual performance evaluation. Average daily error rates for a facility staffed by new employees decreased from 7% to an acceptable 3%. In a facility staffed by long-term employees, the error rate increased, reflecting improper error documentation. Patient satisfaction surveys reveal satisfaction, for tray accuracy increased from 88% to 92% in the facility staffed by long-term employees and has remained above the 90% standard in the facility staffed by new employees.

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…

Image defects from surface and alignment errors in grazing incidence telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Timo T.

1989-01-01

The rigid body motions and low frequency surface errors of grazing incidence Wolter telescopes are studied. The analysis is based on surface error descriptors proposed by Paul Glenn. In his analysis, the alignment and surface errors are expressed in terms of Legendre-Fourier polynomials. Individual terms in the expression correspond to rigid body motions (decenter and tilt) and low spatial frequency surface errors of mirrors. With the help of the Legendre-Fourier polynomials and the geometry of grazing incidence telescopes, exact and approximated first order equations are derived in this paper for the components of the ray intercepts at the image plane. These equations are then used to calculate the sensitivities of Wolter type I and II telescopes for the rigid body motions and surface deformations. The rms spot diameters calculated from this theory and OSAC ray tracing code agree very well. This theory also provides a tool to predict how rigid body motions and surface errors of the mirrors compensate each other.

How the credit assignment problems in motor control could be solved after the cerebellum predicts increases in error.

PubMed

Verduzco-Flores, Sergio O; O'Reilly, Randall C

2015-01-01

We present a cerebellar architecture with two main characteristics. The first one is that complex spikes respond to increases in sensory errors. The second one is that cerebellar modules associate particular contexts where errors have increased in the past with corrective commands that stop the increase in error. We analyze our architecture formally and computationally for the case of reaching in a 3D environment. In the case of motor control, we show that there are synergies of this architecture with the Equilibrium-Point hypothesis, leading to novel ways to solve the motor error and distal learning problems. In particular, the presence of desired equilibrium lengths for muscles provides a way to know when the error is increasing, and which corrections to apply. In the context of Threshold Control Theory and Perceptual Control Theory we show how to extend our model so it implements anticipative corrections in cascade control systems that span from muscle contractions to cognitive operations.

How the credit assignment problems in motor control could be solved after the cerebellum predicts increases in error

PubMed Central

Verduzco-Flores, Sergio O.; O'Reilly, Randall C.

2015-01-01

We present a cerebellar architecture with two main characteristics. The first one is that complex spikes respond to increases in sensory errors. The second one is that cerebellar modules associate particular contexts where errors have increased in the past with corrective commands that stop the increase in error. We analyze our architecture formally and computationally for the case of reaching in a 3D environment. In the case of motor control, we show that there are synergies of this architecture with the Equilibrium-Point hypothesis, leading to novel ways to solve the motor error and distal learning problems. In particular, the presence of desired equilibrium lengths for muscles provides a way to know when the error is increasing, and which corrections to apply. In the context of Threshold Control Theory and Perceptual Control Theory we show how to extend our model so it implements anticipative corrections in cascade control systems that span from muscle contractions to cognitive operations. PMID:25852535

Reflections on human error - Matters of life and death

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiener, Earl L.

1989-01-01

The last two decades have witnessed a rapid growth in the introduction of automatic devices into aircraft cockpits, and eleswhere in human-machine systems. This was motivated in part by the assumption that when human functioning is replaced by machine functioning, human error is eliminated. Experience to date shows that this is far from true, and that automation does not replace humans, but changes their role in the system, as well as the types and severity of the errors they make. This altered role may lead to fewer, but more critical errors. Intervention strategies to prevent these errors, or ameliorate their consequences include basic human factors engineering of the interface, enhanced warning and alerting systems, and more intelligent interfaces that understand the strategic intent of the crew and can detect and trap inconsistent or erroneous input before it affects the system.

Numerical optimization in Hilbert space using inexact function and gradient evaluations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter, Richard G.

1989-01-01

Trust region algorithms provide a robust iterative technique for solving non-convex unstrained optimization problems, but in many instances it is prohibitively expensive to compute high accuracy function and gradient values for the method. Of particular interest are inverse and parameter estimation problems, since function and gradient evaluations involve numerically solving large systems of differential equations. A global convergence theory is presented for trust region algorithms in which neither function nor gradient values are known exactly. The theory is formulated in a Hilbert space setting so that it can be applied to variational problems as well as the finite dimensional problems normally seen in trust region literature. The conditions concerning allowable error are remarkably relaxed: relative errors in the gradient error condition is automatically satisfied if the error is orthogonal to the gradient approximation. A technique for estimating gradient error and improving the approximation is also presented.

A Probabilistic Palimpsest Model of Visual Short-term Memory

PubMed Central

Matthey, Loic; Bays, Paul M.; Dayan, Peter

2015-01-01

Working memory plays a key role in cognition, and yet its mechanisms remain much debated. Human performance on memory tasks is severely limited; however, the two major classes of theory explaining the limits leave open questions about key issues such as how multiple simultaneously-represented items can be distinguished. We propose a palimpsest model, with the occurrent activity of a single population of neurons coding for several multi-featured items. Using a probabilistic approach to storage and recall, we show how this model can account for many qualitative aspects of existing experimental data. In our account, the underlying nature of a memory item depends entirely on the characteristics of the population representation, and we provide analytical and numerical insights into critical issues such as multiplicity and binding. We consider representations in which information about individual feature values is partially separate from the information about binding that creates single items out of multiple features. An appropriate balance between these two types of information is required to capture fully the different types of error seen in human experimental data. Our model provides the first principled account of misbinding errors. We also suggest a specific set of stimuli designed to elucidate the representations that subjects actually employ. PMID:25611204

A probabilistic palimpsest model of visual short-term memory.

PubMed

Matthey, Loic; Bays, Paul M; Dayan, Peter

2015-01-01

Working memory plays a key role in cognition, and yet its mechanisms remain much debated. Human performance on memory tasks is severely limited; however, the two major classes of theory explaining the limits leave open questions about key issues such as how multiple simultaneously-represented items can be distinguished. We propose a palimpsest model, with the occurrent activity of a single population of neurons coding for several multi-featured items. Using a probabilistic approach to storage and recall, we show how this model can account for many qualitative aspects of existing experimental data. In our account, the underlying nature of a memory item depends entirely on the characteristics of the population representation, and we provide analytical and numerical insights into critical issues such as multiplicity and binding. We consider representations in which information about individual feature values is partially separate from the information about binding that creates single items out of multiple features. An appropriate balance between these two types of information is required to capture fully the different types of error seen in human experimental data. Our model provides the first principled account of misbinding errors. We also suggest a specific set of stimuli designed to elucidate the representations that subjects actually employ.

North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): VHF Source Retrieval Algorithm and Error Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Solakiewicz, R. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Hall, J.; Bailey, J.; Krider, E. P.; Bateman, M. G.; Boccippio, D.

2003-01-01

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix Theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50 ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results. However, for many source locations, the Curvature Matrix Theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Mental models and human reasoning

PubMed Central

Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

2010-01-01

To be rational is to be able to reason. Thirty years ago psychologists believed that human reasoning depended on formal rules of inference akin to those of a logical calculus. This hypothesis ran into difficulties, which led to an alternative view: reasoning depends on envisaging the possibilities consistent with the starting point—a perception of the world, a set of assertions, a memory, or some mixture of them. We construct mental models of each distinct possibility and derive a conclusion from them. The theory predicts systematic errors in our reasoning, and the evidence corroborates this prediction. Yet, our ability to use counterexamples to refute invalid inferences provides a foundation for rationality. On this account, reasoning is a simulation of the world fleshed out with our knowledge, not a formal rearrangement of the logical skeletons of sentences. PMID:20956326

Behavioral economics.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2009-01-01

It is human nature to overestimate how rational we are, both in general and even when we are trying to be. Such irrationality is not random, and the search for and explanation of patterns of fuzzy thinking is the basis for a new academic discipline known as behavioral economics. Examples are given of some of the best understood of our foibles, including prospect theory, framing, anchoring, salience, confirmation bias, superstition, and ownership. Humans have two cognitive systems: one conscious, deliberate, slow, and rational; the other fast, pattern-based, emotionally tinged, and intuitive. Each is subject to its own kind of error. In the case of rational thought, we tend to exaggerate our capacity; for intuition, we fail to train it or recognize contexts where it is inappropriate. Humans are especially poor at estimating probabilities, or even understanding what they are. It is a common human failing to reason backwards from random outcomes that are favorable to beliefs about our power to predict the future. Five suggestions are offered for thinking within our means.

Exchange-Correlation Effects for Noncovalent Interactions in Density Functional Theory.

PubMed

Otero-de-la-Roza, A; DiLabio, Gino A; Johnson, Erin R

2016-07-12

In this article, we develop an understanding of how errors from exchange-correlation functionals affect the modeling of noncovalent interactions in dispersion-corrected density-functional theory. Computed CCSD(T) reference binding energies for a collection of small-molecule clusters are decomposed via a molecular many-body expansion and are used to benchmark density-functional approximations, including the effect of semilocal approximation, exact-exchange admixture, and range separation. Three sources of error are identified. Repulsion error arises from the choice of semilocal functional approximation. This error affects intermolecular repulsions and is present in all n-body exchange-repulsion energies with a sign that alternates with the order n of the interaction. Delocalization error is independent of the choice of semilocal functional but does depend on the exact exchange fraction. Delocalization error misrepresents the induction energies, leading to overbinding in all induction n-body terms, and underestimates the electrostatic contribution to the 2-body energies. Deformation error affects only monomer relaxation (deformation) energies and behaves similarly to bond-dissociation energy errors. Delocalization and deformation errors affect systems with significant intermolecular orbital interactions (e.g., hydrogen- and halogen-bonded systems), whereas repulsion error is ubiquitous. Many-body errors from the underlying exchange-correlation functional greatly exceed in general the magnitude of the many-body dispersion energy term. A functional built to accurately model noncovalent interactions must contain a dispersion correction, semilocal exchange, and correlation components that minimize the repulsion error independently and must also incorporate exact exchange in such a way that delocalization error is absent.

Human factors process failure modes and effects analysis (HF PFMEA) software tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Faith T. (Inventor); Relvini, Kristine M. (Inventor); Shedd, Nathaneal P. (Inventor); Valentino, William D. (Inventor); Philippart, Monica F. (Inventor); Bessette, Colette I. (Inventor)

2011-01-01

Methods, computer-readable media, and systems for automatically performing Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis for a process are provided. At least one task involved in a process is identified, where the task includes at least one human activity. The human activity is described using at least one verb. A human error potentially resulting from the human activity is automatically identified, the human error is related to the verb used in describing the task. A likelihood of occurrence, detection, and correction of the human error is identified. The severity of the effect of the human error is identified. The likelihood of occurrence, and the severity of the risk of potential harm is identified. The risk of potential harm is compared with a risk threshold to identify the appropriateness of corrective measures.

Air Force Academy Homepage

Science.gov Websites

Chaplain Corps Cadet Chapel Community Center Chapel Institutional Review Board Not Human Subjects Research Requirements 7 Not Human Subjects Research Form 8 Researcher Instructions - Activities Submitted to DoD IRB 9 Review 18 Not Human Subjects Errors 19 Exempt Research Most Frequent Errors 20 Most Frequent Errors for

Development of an FAA-EUROCONTROL technique for the analysis of human error in ATM : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-07-01

Human error has been identified as a dominant risk factor in safety-oriented industries such as air traffic control (ATC). However, little is known about the factors leading to human errors in current air traffic management (ATM) systems. The first s...

Human Error: The Stakes Are Raised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenberg, Joel

1980-01-01

Mistakes related to the operation of nuclear power plants and other technologically complex systems are discussed. Recommendations are given for decreasing the chance of human error in the operation of nuclear plants. The causes of the Three Mile Island incident are presented in terms of the human error element. (SA)

Avoiding Human Error in Mission Operations: Cassini Flight Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burk, Thomas A.

2012-01-01

Operating spacecraft is a never-ending challenge and the risk of human error is ever- present. Many missions have been significantly affected by human error on the part of ground controllers. The Cassini mission at Saturn has not been immune to human error, but Cassini operations engineers use tools and follow processes that find and correct most human errors before they reach the spacecraft. What is needed are skilled engineers with good technical knowledge, good interpersonal communications, quality ground software, regular peer reviews, up-to-date procedures, as well as careful attention to detail and the discipline to test and verify all commands that will be sent to the spacecraft. Two areas of special concern are changes to flight software and response to in-flight anomalies. The Cassini team has a lot of practical experience in all these areas and they have found that well-trained engineers with good tools who follow clear procedures can catch most errors before they get into command sequences to be sent to the spacecraft. Finally, having a robust and fault-tolerant spacecraft that allows ground controllers excellent visibility of its condition is the most important way to ensure human error does not compromise the mission.

Discordance between net analyte signal theory and practical multivariate calibration.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher D

2004-08-01

Lorber's concept of net analyte signal is reviewed in the context of classical and inverse least-squares approaches to multivariate calibration. It is shown that, in the presence of device measurement error, the classical and inverse calibration procedures have radically different theoretical prediction objectives, and the assertion that the popular inverse least-squares procedures (including partial least squares, principal components regression) approximate Lorber's net analyte signal vector in the limit is disproved. Exact theoretical expressions for the prediction error bias, variance, and mean-squared error are given under general measurement error conditions, which reinforce the very discrepant behavior between these two predictive approaches, and Lorber's net analyte signal theory. Implications for multivariate figures of merit and numerous recently proposed preprocessing treatments involving orthogonal projections are also discussed.

Motivational processes from expectancy-value theory are associated with variability in the error positivity in young children

PubMed Central

Kim, Matthew H.; Marulis, Loren M.; Grammer, Jennie K.; Morrison, Frederick J.; Gehring, William J.

2016-01-01

Motivational beliefs and values influence how children approach challenging activities. The present study explores motivational processes from an expectancy-value theory framework by studying children's mistakes and their responses to them by focusing on two ERP components, the error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe). Motivation was assessed using a child-friendly challenge puzzle task and a brief interview measure prior to ERP testing. Data from 50 four- to six-year-old children revealed that greater perceived competence beliefs were related to a larger Pe, while stronger intrinsic task value beliefs were associated with a smaller Pe. Motivation was unrelated to the ERN. Individual differences in early motivational processes may reflect electrophysiological activity related to conscious error awareness. PMID:27898304

Good people who try their best can have problems: recognition of human factors and how to minimise error.

PubMed

Brennan, Peter A; Mitchell, David A; Holmes, Simon; Plint, Simon; Parry, David

2016-01-01

Human error is as old as humanity itself and is an appreciable cause of mistakes by both organisations and people. Much of the work related to human factors in causing error has originated from aviation where mistakes can be catastrophic not only for those who contribute to the error, but for passengers as well. The role of human error in medical and surgical incidents, which are often multifactorial, is becoming better understood, and includes both organisational issues (by the employer) and potential human factors (at a personal level). Mistakes as a result of individual human factors and surgical teams should be better recognised and emphasised. Attitudes and acceptance of preoperative briefing has improved since the introduction of the World Health Organization (WHO) surgical checklist. However, this does not address limitations or other safety concerns that are related to performance, such as stress and fatigue, emotional state, hunger, awareness of what is going on situational awareness, and other factors that could potentially lead to error. Here we attempt to raise awareness of these human factors, and highlight how they can lead to error, and how they can be minimised in our day-to-day practice. Can hospitals move from being "high risk industries" to "high reliability organisations"? Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using a Delphi Method to Identify Human Factors Contributing to Nursing Errors.

PubMed

Roth, Cheryl; Brewer, Melanie; Wieck, K Lynn

2017-07-01

The purpose of this study was to identify human factors associated with nursing errors. Using a Delphi technique, this study used feedback from a panel of nurse experts (n = 25) on an initial qualitative survey questionnaire followed by summarizing the results with feedback and confirmation. Synthesized factors regarding causes of errors were incorporated into a quantitative Likert-type scale, and the original expert panel participants were queried a second time to validate responses. The list identified 24 items as most common causes of nursing errors, including swamping and errors made by others that nurses are expected to recognize and fix. The responses provided a consensus top 10 errors list based on means with heavy workload and fatigue at the top of the list. The use of the Delphi survey established consensus and developed a platform upon which future study of nursing errors can evolve as a link to future solutions. This list of human factors in nursing errors should serve to stimulate dialogue among nurses about how to prevent errors and improve outcomes. Human and system failures have been the subject of an abundance of research, yet nursing errors continue to occur. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Explaining Errors in Children's Questions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowland, Caroline F.

2007-01-01

The ability to explain the occurrence of errors in children's speech is an essential component of successful theories of language acquisition. The present study tested some generativist and constructivist predictions about error on the questions produced by ten English-learning children between 2 and 5 years of age. The analyses demonstrated that,…

Identifiability Of Systems With Modeling Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaegh, Yadolah " fred" ; Bekey, George A.

1988-01-01

Advances in theory of modeling errors reported. Recent paper on errors in mathematical models of deterministic linear or weakly nonlinear systems. Extends theoretical work described in NPO-16661 and NPO-16785. Presents concrete way of accounting for difference in structure between mathematical model and physical process or system that it represents.

FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE): Perspective on Taxonomy Development to Support Error Reporting and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lon N. Haney; David I. Gertman

2003-04-01

Beginning in the 1980s a primary focus of human reliability analysis was estimation of human error probabilities. However, detailed qualitative modeling with comprehensive representation of contextual variables often was lacking. This was likely due to the lack of comprehensive error and performance shaping factor taxonomies, and the limited data available on observed error rates and their relationship to specific contextual variables. In the mid 90s Boeing, America West Airlines, NASA Ames Research Center and INEEL partnered in a NASA sponsored Advanced Concepts grant to: assess the state of the art in human error analysis, identify future needs for human errormore » analysis, and develop an approach addressing these needs. Identified needs included the need for a method to identify and prioritize task and contextual characteristics affecting human reliability. Other needs identified included developing comprehensive taxonomies to support detailed qualitative modeling and to structure meaningful data collection efforts across domains. A result was the development of the FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE) with a taxonomy for airline maintenance tasks. The assignment of performance shaping factors to generic errors by experts proved to be valuable to qualitative modeling. Performance shaping factors and error types from such detailed approaches can be used to structure error reporting schemes. In a recent NASA Advanced Human Support Technology grant FRANCIE was refined, and two new taxonomies for use on space missions were developed. The development, sharing, and use of error taxonomies, and the refinement of approaches for increased fidelity of qualitative modeling is offered as a means to help direct useful data collection strategies.« less

Why hard-nosed executives should care about management theory.

PubMed

Christensen, Clayton M; Raynor, Michael E

2003-09-01

Theory often gets a bum rap among managers because it's associated with the word "theoretical," which connotes "impractical." But it shouldn't. Because experience is solely about the past, solid theories are the only way managers can plan future actions with any degree of confidence. The key word here is "solid." Gravity is a solid theory. As such, it lets us predict that if we step off a cliff we will fall, without actually having to do so. But business literature is replete with theories that don't seem to work in practice or actually contradict each other. How can a manager tell a good business theory from a bad one? The first step is understanding how good theories are built. They develop in three stages: gathering data, organizing it into categories highlighting significant differences, then making generalizations explaining what causes what, under which circumstances. For instance, professor Ananth Raman and his colleagues collected data showing that bar code-scanning systems generated notoriously inaccurate inventory records. These observations led them to classify the types of errors the scanning systems produced and the types of shops in which those errors most often occurred. Recently, some of Raman's doctoral students have worked as clerks to see exactly what kinds of behavior cause the errors. From this foundation, a solid theory predicting under which circumstances bar code systems work, and don't work, is beginning to emerge. Once we forgo one-size-fits-all explanations and insist that a theory describes the circumstances under which it does and doesn't work, we can bring predictable success to the world of management.

Analysis of measured data of human body based on error correcting frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Aiyan; Peipei, Gao; Shang, Xiaomei

2014-04-01

Anthropometry is to measure all parts of human body surface, and the measured data is the basis of analysis and study of the human body, establishment and modification of garment size and formulation and implementation of online clothing store. In this paper, several groups of the measured data are gained, and analysis of data error is gotten by analyzing the error frequency and using analysis of variance method in mathematical statistics method. Determination of the measured data accuracy and the difficulty of measured parts of human body, further studies of the causes of data errors, and summarization of the key points to minimize errors possibly are also mentioned in the paper. This paper analyses the measured data based on error frequency, and in a way , it provides certain reference elements to promote the garment industry development.

The explanatory power of Schema Theory: theoretical foundations and future applications in Ergonomics.

PubMed

Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

2013-01-01

Schema Theory is intuitively appealing although it has not always received positive press; critics of the approach argue that the concept is too ambiguous and vague and there are inherent difficulties associated with measuring schemata. As such, the term schema can be met with scepticism and wariness. The purpose of this paper is to address the criticisms that have been levelled at Schema Theory by demonstrating how Schema Theory has been utilised in Ergonomics research, particularly in the key areas of situation awareness, naturalistic decision making and error. The future of Schema Theory is also discussed in light of its potential roles as a unifying theory in Ergonomics and in contributing to our understanding of distributed cognition. We conclude that Schema Theory has made a positive contribution to Ergonomics and with continued refinement of methods to infer and represent schemata it is likely that this trend will continue. This paper reviews the contribution that Schema Theory has made to Ergonomics research. The criticisms of the theory are addressed using examples from the areas of situation awareness, decision making and error.

Speech errors of amnesic H.M.: unlike everyday slips-of-the-tongue.

PubMed

MacKay, Donald G; James, Lori E; Hadley, Christopher B; Fogler, Kethera A

2011-03-01

Three language production studies indicate that amnesic H.M. produces speech errors unlike everyday slips-of-the-tongue. Study 1 was a naturalistic task: H.M. and six controls closely matched for age, education, background and IQ described what makes captioned cartoons funny. Nine judges rated the descriptions blind to speaker identity and gave reliably more negative ratings for coherence, vagueness, comprehensibility, grammaticality, and adequacy of humor-description for H.M. than the controls. Study 2 examined "major errors", a novel type of speech error that is uncorrected and reduces the coherence, grammaticality, accuracy and/or comprehensibility of an utterance. The results indicated that H.M. produced seven types of major errors reliably more often than controls: substitutions, omissions, additions, transpositions, reading errors, free associations, and accuracy errors. These results contradict recent claims that H.M. retains unconscious or implicit language abilities and produces spoken discourse that is "sophisticated," "intact" and "without major errors." Study 3 examined whether three classical types of errors (omissions, additions, and substitutions of words and phrases) differed for H.M. versus controls in basic nature and relative frequency by error type. The results indicated that omissions, and especially multi-word omissions, were relatively more common for H.M. than the controls; and substitutions violated the syntactic class regularity (whereby, e.g., nouns substitute with nouns but not verbs) relatively more often for H.M. than the controls. These results suggest that H.M.'s medial temporal lobe damage impaired his ability to rapidly form new connections between units in the cortex, a process necessary to form complete and coherent internal representations for novel sentence-level plans. In short, different brain mechanisms underlie H.M.'s major errors (which reflect incomplete and incoherent sentence-level plans) versus everyday slips-of-the tongue (which reflect errors in activating pre-planned units in fully intact sentence-level plans). Implications of the results of Studies 1-3 are discussed for systems theory, binding theory and relational memory theories. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Srl. All rights reserved.

Nucleation theory - Is replacement free energy needed?. [error analysis of capillary approximation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doremus, R. H.

1982-01-01

It has been suggested that the classical theory of nucleation of liquid from its vapor as developed by Volmer and Weber (1926) needs modification with a factor referred to as the replacement free energy and that the capillary approximation underlying the classical theory is in error. Here, the classical nucleation equation is derived from fluctuation theory, Gibb's result for the reversible work to form a critical nucleus, and the rate of collision of gas molecules with a surface. The capillary approximation is not used in the derivation. The chemical potential of small drops is then considered, and it is shown that the capillary approximation can be derived from thermodynamic equations. The results show that no corrections to Volmer's equation are needed.

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory.

PubMed

Setton, Roni; Wilhelms, Evan; Weldon, Becky; Chick, Christina; Reyna, Valerie

2014-12-01

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory's predictions about reliance on gist processing.

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2016-01-01

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanSelst, Mark; Freed, Michael; Shefto, Michael (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

Where Are the Logical Errors in the Theory of Big Bang?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalanov, Temur Z.

2015-04-01

The critical analysis of the foundations of the theory of Big Bang is proposed. The unity of formal logic and of rational dialectics is methodological basis of the analysis. It is argued that the starting point of the theory of Big Bang contains three fundamental logical errors. The first error is the assumption that a macroscopic object (having qualitative determinacy) can have an arbitrarily small size and can be in the singular state (i.e., in the state that has no qualitative determinacy). This assumption implies that the transition, (macroscopic object having the qualitative determinacy) --> (singular state of matter that has no qualitative determinacy), leads to loss of information contained in the macroscopic object. The second error is the assumption that there are the void and the boundary between matter and void. But if such boundary existed, then it would mean that the void has dimensions and can be measured. The third error is the assumption that the singular state of matter can make a transition into the normal state without the existence of the program of qualitative and quantitative development of the matter, without controlling influence of other (independent) object. However, these assumptions conflict with the practice and, consequently, formal logic, rational dialectics, and cybernetics. Indeed, from the point of view of cybernetics, the transition, (singular state of the Universe) -->(normal state of the Universe),would be possible only in the case if there was the Managed Object that is outside the Universe and have full, complete, and detailed information about the Universe. Thus, the theory of Big Bang is a scientific fiction.

Neutral and charged excitations in carbon fullerenes from first-principles many-body theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tiago, Murilo L; Kent, Paul R; Hood, Randolph Q.

2008-01-01

We use first-principles many-body theories to investigate the low energy excitations of the carbon fullerenes C_20, C_24, C_50, C_60, C_70, and C_80. Properties are calculated via the GW-Bethe-Salpeter Equation (GW-BSE) and diffusion Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. At a lower level of theoretical complexity, we also calculate these properties using static and time-dependent density-functional theory. We critically compare these theories and assess their accuracy against available experimental data. The first ionization potentials are consistently well reproduced and are similar for all the fullerenes and methods studied. The electron affinities and first triplet excitation energies show substantial method and geometry dependence.more » Compared to available experiment, GW-BSE underestimates excitation energies by approximately 0.3 eV while QMC overestimates them by approximately 0.5 eV. We show the GW-BSE errors result primarily from a systematic overestimation of the electron affinities, while the QMC errors likely result from nodal error in both ground and excited state calculations.« less

Behavioural variation in 172 small-scale societies indicates that social learning is the main mode of human adaptation

PubMed Central

Mathew, Sarah; Perreault, Charles

2015-01-01

The behavioural variation among human societies is vast and unmatched in the animal world. It is unclear whether this variation is due to variation in the ecological environment or to differences in cultural traditions. Underlying this debate is a more fundamental question: is the richness of humans’ behavioural repertoire due to non-cultural mechanisms, such as causal reasoning, inventiveness, reaction norms, trial-and-error learning and evoked culture, or is it due to the population-level dynamics of cultural transmission? Here, we measure the relative contribution of environment and cultural history in explaining the behavioural variation of 172 Native American tribes at the time of European contact. We find that the effect of cultural history is typically larger than that of environment. Behaviours also persist over millennia within cultural lineages. This indicates that human behaviour is not predominantly determined by single-generation adaptive responses, contra theories that emphasize non-cultural mechanisms as determinants of human behaviour. Rather, the main mode of human adaptation is social learning mechanisms that operate over multiple generations. PMID:26085589

Exploring human error in military aviation flight safety events using post-incident classification systems.

PubMed

Hooper, Brionny J; O'Hare, David P A

2013-08-01

Human error classification systems theoretically allow researchers to analyze postaccident data in an objective and consistent manner. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework is one such practical analysis tool that has been widely used to classify human error in aviation. The Cognitive Error Taxonomy (CET) is another. It has been postulated that the focus on interrelationships within HFACS can facilitate the identification of the underlying causes of pilot error. The CET provides increased granularity at the level of unsafe acts. The aim was to analyze the influence of factors at higher organizational levels on the unsafe acts of front-line operators and to compare the errors of fixed-wing and rotary-wing operations. This study analyzed 288 aircraft incidents involving human error from an Australasian military organization occurring between 2001 and 2008. Action errors accounted for almost twice (44%) the proportion of rotary wing compared to fixed wing (23%) incidents. Both classificatory systems showed significant relationships between precursor factors such as the physical environment, mental and physiological states, crew resource management, training and personal readiness, and skill-based, but not decision-based, acts. The CET analysis showed different predisposing factors for different aspects of skill-based behaviors. Skill-based errors in military operations are more prevalent in rotary wing incidents and are related to higher level supervisory processes in the organization. The Cognitive Error Taxonomy provides increased granularity to HFACS analyses of unsafe acts.

Effect of neoclassical toroidal viscosity on error-field penetration thresholds in tokamak plasmas.

PubMed

Cole, A J; Hegna, C C; Callen, J D

2007-08-10

A model for field-error penetration is developed that includes nonresonant as well as the usual resonant field-error effects. The nonresonant components cause a neoclassical toroidal viscous torque that keeps the plasma rotating at a rate comparable to the ion diamagnetic frequency. The new theory is used to examine resonant error-field penetration threshold scaling in Ohmic tokamak plasmas. Compared to previous theoretical results, we find the plasma is less susceptible to error-field penetration and locking, by a factor that depends on the nonresonant error-field amplitude.

Moments of inclination error distribution computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myler, T. R.

1981-01-01

A FORTRAN coded computer program is described which calculates orbital inclination error statistics using a closed-form solution. This solution uses a data base of trajectory errors from actual flights to predict the orbital inclination error statistics. The Scott flight history data base consists of orbit insertion errors in the trajectory parameters - altitude, velocity, flight path angle, flight azimuth, latitude and longitude. The methods used to generate the error statistics are of general interest since they have other applications. Program theory, user instructions, output definitions, subroutine descriptions and detailed FORTRAN coding information are included.

Learning from Errors: A Model of Individual Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tulis, Maria; Steuer, Gabriele; Dresel, Markus

2016-01-01

Errors bear the potential to improve knowledge acquisition, provided that learners are able to deal with them in an adaptive and reflexive manner. However, learners experience a host of different--often impeding or maladaptive--emotional and motivational states in the face of academic errors. Research has made few attempts to develop a theory that…

Application of Consider Covariance to the Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundberg, John B.

1996-01-01

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the basis for many applications of filtering theory to real-time problems where estimates of the state of a dynamical system are to be computed based upon some set of observations. The form of the EKF may vary somewhat from one application to another, but the fundamental principles are typically unchanged among these various applications. As is the case in many filtering applications, models of the dynamical system (differential equations describing the state variables) and models of the relationship between the observations and the state variables are created. These models typically employ a set of constants whose values are established my means of theory or experimental procedure. Since the estimates of the state are formed assuming that the models are perfect, any modeling errors will affect the accuracy of the computed estimates. Note that the modeling errors may be errors of commission (errors in terms included in the model) or omission (errors in terms excluded from the model). Consequently, it becomes imperative when evaluating the performance of real-time filters to evaluate the effect of modeling errors on the estimates of the state.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Young, Kevin

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay rate of the observable survival probabilities, versus circuit length, yields a single error metric r. For Clifford gates with arbitrary small errors described by process matrices, r was believed to reliably correspond to the mean, over all Clifford gates, of the average gate infidelity between the imperfect gates and their ideal counterparts. We show that this quantity is not amore » well-defined property of a physical gate set. It depends on the representations used for the imperfect and ideal gates, and the variant typically computed in the literature can differ from r by orders of magnitude. We present new theories of the RB decay that are accurate for all small errors describable by process matrices, and show that the RB decay curve is a simple exponential for all such errors. Here, these theories allow explicit computation of the error rate that RB measures (r), but as far as we can tell it does not correspond to the infidelity of a physically allowed (completely positive) representation of the imperfect gates.« less

Motivational processes from expectancy-value theory are associated with variability in the error positivity in young children.

PubMed

Kim, Matthew H; Marulis, Loren M; Grammer, Jennie K; Morrison, Frederick J; Gehring, William J

2017-03-01

Motivational beliefs and values influence how children approach challenging activities. The current study explored motivational processes from an expectancy-value theory framework by studying children's mistakes and their responses to them by focusing on two event-related potential (ERP) components: the error-related negativity (ERN) and the error positivity (Pe). Motivation was assessed using a child-friendly challenge puzzle task and a brief interview measure prior to ERP testing. Data from 50 4- to 6-year-old children revealed that greater perceived competence beliefs were related to a larger Pe, whereas stronger intrinsic task value beliefs were associated with a smaller Pe. Motivation was unrelated to the ERN. Individual differences in early motivational processes may reflect electrophysiological activity related to conscious error awareness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of SHERPA (Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach) in the development of compensatory cognitive rehabilitation strategies for stroke patients with left and right brain damage.

PubMed

Hughes, Charmayne M L; Baber, Chris; Bienkiewicz, Marta; Worthington, Andrew; Hazell, Alexa; Hermsdörfer, Joachim

2015-01-01

Approximately 33% of stroke patients have difficulty performing activities of daily living, often committing errors during the planning and execution of such activities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the human error identification (HEI) technique SHERPA (Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach) to predict errors during the performance of daily activities in stroke patients with left and right hemisphere lesions. Using SHERPA we successfully predicted 36 of the 38 observed errors, with analysis indicating that the proportion of predicted and observed errors was similar for all sub-tasks and severity levels. HEI results were used to develop compensatory cognitive strategies that clinicians could employ to reduce or prevent errors from occurring. This study provides evidence for the reliability and validity of SHERPA in the design of cognitive rehabilitation strategies in stroke populations.

An Analysis of U.S. Army Fratricide Incidents during the Global War on Terror (11 September 2001 to 31 March 2008)

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-15

Swiss cheese model of human error causation. ................................................................... 3  2. Results for the classification of...based on Reason’s “ Swiss cheese ” model of human error (1990). Figure 1 describes how an accident is likely to occur when all of the errors, or “holes...align. A detailed description of HFACS can be found in Wiegmann and Shappell (2003). Figure 1. The Swiss cheese model of human error

Detection of digital FSK using a phase-locked loop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindsey, W. C.; Simon, M. K.

1975-01-01

A theory is presented for the design of a digital FSK receiver which employs a phase-locked loop to set up the desired matched filter as the arriving signal frequency switches. The developed mathematical model makes it possible to establish the error probability performance of systems which employ a class of digital FM modulations. The noise mechanism which accounts for decision errors is modeled on the basis of the Meyr distribution and renewal Markov process theory.

Solution of elastic-plastic stress analysis problems by the p-version of the finite element method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szabo, Barna A.; Actis, Ricardo L.; Holzer, Stefan M.

1993-01-01

The solution of small strain elastic-plastic stress analysis problems by the p-version of the finite element method is discussed. The formulation is based on the deformation theory of plasticity and the displacement method. Practical realization of controlling discretization errors for elastic-plastic problems is the main focus. Numerical examples which include comparisons between the deformation and incremental theories of plasticity under tight control of discretization errors are presented.

Examining Impulse-Variability Theory and the Speed-Accuracy Trade-Off in Children's Overarm Throwing Performance.

PubMed

Molina, Sergio L; Stodden, David F

2018-04-01

This study examined variability in throwing speed and spatial error to test the prediction of an inverted-U function (i.e., impulse-variability [IV] theory) and the speed-accuracy trade-off. Forty-five 9- to 11-year-old children were instructed to throw at a specified percentage of maximum speed (45%, 65%, 85%, and 100%) and hit the wall target. Results indicated no statistically significant differences in variable error across the target conditions (p = .72), failing to support the inverted-U hypothesis. Spatial accuracy results indicated no statistically significant differences with mean radial error (p = .18), centroid radial error (p = .13), and bivariate variable error (p = .08) also failing to support the speed-accuracy trade-off in overarm throwing. As neither throwing performance variability nor accuracy changed across percentages of maximum speed in this sample of children as well as in a previous adult sample, current policy and practices of practitioners may need to be reevaluated.

A Quality Improvement Project to Decrease Human Milk Errors in the NICU.

PubMed

Oza-Frank, Reena; Kachoria, Rashmi; Dail, James; Green, Jasmine; Walls, Krista; McClead, Richard E

2017-02-01

Ensuring safe human milk in the NICU is a complex process with many potential points for error, of which one of the most serious is administration of the wrong milk to the wrong infant. Our objective was to describe a quality improvement initiative that was associated with a reduction in human milk administration errors identified over a 6-year period in a typical, large NICU setting. We employed a quasi-experimental time series quality improvement initiative by using tools from the model for improvement, Six Sigma methodology, and evidence-based interventions. Scanned errors were identified from the human milk barcode medication administration system. Scanned errors of interest were wrong-milk-to-wrong-infant, expired-milk, or preparation errors. The scanned error rate and the impact of additional improvement interventions from 2009 to 2015 were monitored by using statistical process control charts. From 2009 to 2015, the total number of errors scanned declined from 97.1 per 1000 bottles to 10.8. Specifically, the number of expired milk error scans declined from 84.0 per 1000 bottles to 8.9. The number of preparation errors (4.8 per 1000 bottles to 2.2) and wrong-milk-to-wrong-infant errors scanned (8.3 per 1000 bottles to 2.0) also declined. By reducing the number of errors scanned, the number of opportunities for errors also decreased. Interventions that likely had the greatest impact on reducing the number of scanned errors included installation of bedside (versus centralized) scanners and dedicated staff to handle milk. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Cognitive and metacognitive activity in mathematical problem solving: prefrontal and parietal patterns.

PubMed

Anderson, John R; Betts, Shawn; Ferris, Jennifer L; Fincham, Jon M

2011-03-01

Students were taught an algorithm for solving a new class of mathematical problems. Occasionally in the sequence of problems, they encountered exception problems that required that they extend the algorithm. Regular and exception problems were associated with different patterns of brain activation. Some regions showed a Cognitive pattern of being active only until the problem was solved and no difference between regular or exception problems. Other regions showed a Metacognitive pattern of greater activity for exception problems and activity that extended into the post-solution period, particularly when an error was made. The Cognitive regions included some of parietal and prefrontal regions associated with the triple-code theory of (Dehaene, S., Piazza, M., Pinel, P., & Cohen, L. (2003). Three parietal circuits for number processing. Cognitive Neuropsychology, 20, 487-506) and associated with algebra equation solving in the ACT-R theory (Anderson, J. R. (2005). Human symbol manipulation within an 911 integrated cognitive architecture. Cognitive science, 29, 313-342. Metacognitive regions included the superior prefrontal gyrus, the angular gyrus of the triple-code theory, and frontopolar regions.

A general geometric theory of attitude determination from directional sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, B. T.

1976-01-01

A general geometric theory of spacecraft attitude determination from external reference direction sensors was presented. Outputs of different sensors are reduced to two kinds of basic directional measurements. Errors in these measurement equations are studied in detail. The partial derivatives of measurements with respect to the spacecraft orbit, the spacecraft attitude, and the error parameters form the basis for all orbit and attitude determination schemes and error analysis programs and are presented in a series of tables. The question of attitude observability is studied with the introduction of a graphical construction which provides a great deal of physical insight. The result is applied to the attitude observability of the IMP-8 spacecraft.

Fringe localization requirements for three-dimensional flow visualization of shock waves in diffuse-illumination double-pulse holographic interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, A. J.

1982-01-01

A theory of fringe localization in rapid-double-exposure, diffuse-illumination holographic interferometry was developed. The theory was then applied to compare holographic measurements with laser anemometer measurements of shock locations in a transonic axial-flow compressor rotor. The computed fringe localization error was found to agree well with the measured localization error. It is shown how the view orientation and the curvature and positional variation of the strength of a shock wave are used to determine the localization error and to minimize it. In particular, it is suggested that the view direction not deviate from tangency at the shock surface by more than 30 degrees.

Human errors and measurement uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Evaluating the residual risk of human errors in a measurement and testing laboratory, remaining after the error reduction by the laboratory quality system, and quantifying the consequences of this risk for the quality of the measurement/test results are discussed based on expert judgments and Monte Carlo simulations. A procedure for evaluation of the contribution of the residual risk to the measurement uncertainty budget is proposed. Examples are provided using earlier published sets of expert judgments on human errors in pH measurement of groundwater, elemental analysis of geological samples by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and multi-residue analysis of pesticides in fruits and vegetables. The human error contribution to the measurement uncertainty budget in the examples was not negligible, yet also not dominant. This was assessed as a good risk management result.

Understanding Decision Making in Critical Care

PubMed Central

Lighthall, Geoffrey K.; Vazquez-Guillamet, Cristina

2015-01-01

Background Human decision making involves the deliberate formulation of hypotheses and plans as well as the use of subconscious means of judging probability, likely outcome, and proper action. Rationale There is a growing recognition that intuitive strategies such as use of heuristics and pattern recognition described in other industries are applicable to high-acuity environments in medicine. Despite the applicability of theories of cognition to the intensive care unit, a discussion of decision-making strategies is currently absent in the critical care literature. Content This article provides an overview of known cognitive strategies, as well as a synthesis of their use in critical care. By understanding the ways by which humans formulate diagnoses and make critical decisions, we may be able to minimize errors in our own judgments as well as build training activities around known strengths and limitations of cognition. PMID:26387708

Human factors evaluation of remote afterloading brachytherapy: Human error and critical tasks in remote afterloading brachytherapy and approaches for improved system performance. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Callan, J.R.; Kelly, R.T.; Quinn, M.L.

1995-05-01

Remote Afterloading Brachytherapy (RAB) is a medical process used in the treatment of cancer. RAB uses a computer-controlled device to remotely insert and remove radioactive sources close to a target (or tumor) in the body. Some RAB problems affecting the radiation dose to the patient have been reported and attributed to human error. To determine the root cause of human error in the RAB system, a human factors team visited 23 RAB treatment sites in the US The team observed RAB treatment planning and delivery, interviewed RAB personnel, and performed walk-throughs, during which staff demonstrated the procedures and practices usedmore » in performing RAB tasks. Factors leading to human error in the RAB system were identified. The impact of those factors on the performance of RAB was then evaluated and prioritized in terms of safety significance. Finally, the project identified and evaluated alternative approaches for resolving the safety significant problems related to human error.« less

Human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents using the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-02-01

The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is a general human error framework : originally developed and tested within the U.S. military as a tool for investigating and analyzing the human : causes of aviation accidents. Based upon ...

[A Grounded Theory Approach on Nurses' Experience with Workplace Bullying].

PubMed

Kang, Jiyeon; Yun, Seonyoung

2016-04-01

The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the workplace bullying experience of Korean nurses. Participants were twenty current or former hospital nurses who had experienced workplace bullying. Data were collected through focus group and individual in-depth interviews from February to May, 2015. Theoretical sampling method was applied to the point of theoretical saturation. Transcribed interview contents were analyzed using Corbin and Strauss's grounded theory method. A total of 110 concepts, 48 sub-categories, and 17 categories were identified through the open coding process. As a result of axial coding based on the paradigm model, the central phenomenon of nurses' workplace bullying experience was revealed as 'teaching that has become bullying', and the core category was extracted as 'surviving in love-hate teaching' consisting of a four-step process: confronting reality, trial and error, relationship formation, and settlement. The relationship formation was considered to be the key phase to proceed to the positive settlement phase, and the participants utilized various strategies such as having an open mind, developing human relationships, understanding each other in this phase. The in-depth understanding of the workplace bullying experience has highlighted the importance of effective communication for cultivating desirable human relationships between nurses.

A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

PubMed

Sharit, J

2000-08-01

This article introduces and develops a modeling framework for exposing risks in the form of human errors and adverse consequences in high-risk systems. The modeling framework is based on two components: a two-dimensional theory of accidents in systems developed by Perrow in 1984, and the concept of multiple system perspectives. The theory of accidents differentiates systems on the basis of two sets of attributes. One set characterizes the degree to which systems are interactively complex; the other emphasizes the extent to which systems are tightly coupled. The concept of multiple perspectives provides alternative descriptions of the entire system that serve to enhance insight into system processes. The usefulness of these two model components derives from a modeling framework that cross-links them, enabling a variety of work contexts to be exposed and understood that would otherwise be very difficult or impossible to identify. The model components and the modeling framework are illustrated in the case of a large and comprehensive trauma care system. In addition to its general utility in the area of risk analysis, this methodology may be valuable in applications of current methods of human and system reliability analysis in complex and continually evolving high-risk systems.

Error and Uncertainty in the Accuracy Assessment of Land Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmento, Pedro Alexandre Reis

Traditionally the accuracy assessment of land cover maps is performed through the comparison of these maps with a reference database, which is intended to represent the "real" land cover, being this comparison reported with the thematic accuracy measures through confusion matrixes. Although, these reference databases are also a representation of reality, containing errors due to the human uncertainty in the assignment of the land cover class that best characterizes a certain area, causing bias in the thematic accuracy measures that are reported to the end users of these maps. The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a methodology that allows the integration of human uncertainty present in reference databases in the accuracy assessment of land cover maps, and analyse the impacts that uncertainty may have in the thematic accuracy measures reported to the end users of land cover maps. The utility of the inclusion of human uncertainty in the accuracy assessment of land cover maps is investigated. Specifically we studied the utility of fuzzy sets theory, more precisely of fuzzy arithmetic, for a better understanding of human uncertainty associated to the elaboration of reference databases, and their impacts in the thematic accuracy measures that are derived from confusion matrixes. For this purpose linguistic values transformed in fuzzy intervals that address the uncertainty in the elaboration of reference databases were used to compute fuzzy confusion matrixes. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a case study in which the accuracy assessment of a land cover map for Continental Portugal derived from Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) is made. The obtained results demonstrate that the inclusion of human uncertainty in reference databases provides much more information about the quality of land cover maps, when compared with the traditional approach of accuracy assessment of land cover maps. None

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory

PubMed Central

Setton, Roni; Wilhelms, Evan; Weldon, Becky; Chick, Christina; Reyna, Valerie

2017-01-01

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory’s predictions about reliance on gist processing. PMID:28725239

The Neural-fuzzy Thermal Error Compensation Controller on CNC Machining Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Pai-Chung; Chen, Shen-Len

The geometric errors and structural thermal deformation are factors that influence the machining accuracy of Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machining center. Therefore, researchers pay attention to thermal error compensation technologies on CNC machine tools. Some real-time error compensation techniques have been successfully demonstrated in both laboratories and industrial sites. The compensation results still need to be enhanced. In this research, the neural-fuzzy theory has been conducted to derive a thermal prediction model. An IC-type thermometer has been used to detect the heat sources temperature variation. The thermal drifts are online measured by a touch-triggered probe with a standard bar. A thermal prediction model is then derived by neural-fuzzy theory based on the temperature variation and the thermal drifts. A Graphic User Interface (GUI) system is also built to conduct the user friendly operation interface with Insprise C++ Builder. The experimental results show that the thermal prediction model developed by neural-fuzzy theory methodology can improve machining accuracy from 80µm to 3µm. Comparison with the multi-variable linear regression analysis the compensation accuracy is increased from ±10µm to ±3µm.

Variation and adaptation: learning from success in patient safety-oriented simulation training.

PubMed

Dieckmann, Peter; Patterson, Mary; Lahlou, Saadi; Mesman, Jessica; Nyström, Patrik; Krage, Ralf

2017-01-01

Simulation is traditionally used to reduce errors and their negative consequences. But according to modern safety theories, this focus overlooks the learning potential of the positive performance, which is much more common than errors. Therefore, a supplementary approach to simulation is needed to unfold its full potential. In our commentary, we describe the learning from success (LFS) approach to simulation and debriefing. Drawing on several theoretical frameworks, we suggest supplementing the widespread deficit-oriented, corrective approach to simulation with an approach that focusses on systematically understanding how good performance is produced in frequent (mundane) simulation scenarios. We advocate to investigate and optimize human activity based on the connected layers of any setting: the embodied competences of the healthcare professionals, the social and organizational rules that guide their actions, and the material aspects of the setting. We discuss implications of these theoretical perspectives for the design and conduct of simulation scenarios, post-simulation debriefings, and faculty development programs.

Ecological footprint model using the support vector machine technique.

PubMed

Ma, Haibo; Chang, Wenjuan; Cui, Guangbai

2012-01-01

The per capita ecological footprint (EF) is one of the most widely recognized measures of environmental sustainability. It aims to quantify the Earth's biological resources required to support human activity. In this paper, we summarize relevant previous literature, and present five factors that influence per capita EF. These factors are: National gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization (independent of economic development), distribution of income (measured by the Gini coefficient), export dependence (measured by the percentage of exports to total GDP), and service intensity (measured by the percentage of service to total GDP). A new ecological footprint model based on a support vector machine (SVM), which is a machine-learning method based on the structural risk minimization principle from statistical learning theory was conducted to calculate the per capita EF of 24 nations using data from 123 nations. The calculation accuracy was measured by average absolute error and average relative error. They were 0.004883 and 0.351078% respectively. Our results demonstrate that the EF model based on SVM has good calculation performance.

Four principles for user interface design of computerised clinical decision support systems.

PubMed

Kanstrup, Anne Marie; Christiansen, Marion Berg; Nøhr, Christian

2011-01-01

The paper presents results from a design research project of a user interface (UI) for a Computerised Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS). The ambition has been to design Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) that can minimise medication errors. Through an iterative design process a digital prototype for prescription of medicine has been developed. This paper presents results from the formative evaluation of the prototype conducted in a simulation laboratory with ten participating physicians. Data from the simulation is analysed by use of theory on how users perceive information. The conclusion is a model, which sum up four principles of interaction for design of CDSS. The four principles for design of user interfaces for CDSS are summarised as four A's: All in one, At a glance, At hand and Attention. The model emphasises integration of all four interaction principles in the design of user interfaces for CDSS, i.e. the model is an integrated model which we suggest as a guide for interaction design when working with preventing medication errors.

Mesolimbic confidence signals guide perceptual learning in the absence of external feedback

PubMed Central

Guggenmos, Matthias; Wilbertz, Gregor; Hebart, Martin N; Sterzer, Philipp

2016-01-01

It is well established that learning can occur without external feedback, yet normative reinforcement learning theories have difficulties explaining such instances of learning. Here, we propose that human observers are capable of generating their own feedback signals by monitoring internal decision variables. We investigated this hypothesis in a visual perceptual learning task using fMRI and confidence reports as a measure for this monitoring process. Employing a novel computational model in which learning is guided by confidence-based reinforcement signals, we found that mesolimbic brain areas encoded both anticipation and prediction error of confidence—in remarkable similarity to previous findings for external reward-based feedback. We demonstrate that the model accounts for choice and confidence reports and show that the mesolimbic confidence prediction error modulation derived through the model predicts individual learning success. These results provide a mechanistic neurobiological explanation for learning without external feedback by augmenting reinforcement models with confidence-based feedback. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13388.001 PMID:27021283

Model-based predictions for dopamine.

PubMed

Langdon, Angela J; Sharpe, Melissa J; Schoenbaum, Geoffrey; Niv, Yael

2018-04-01

Phasic dopamine responses are thought to encode a prediction-error signal consistent with model-free reinforcement learning theories. However, a number of recent findings highlight the influence of model-based computations on dopamine responses, and suggest that dopamine prediction errors reflect more dimensions of an expected outcome than scalar reward value. Here, we review a selection of these recent results and discuss the implications and complications of model-based predictions for computational theories of dopamine and learning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A general theory of multimetric indices and their properties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoolmaster, Donald R.; Grace, James B.; Schweiger, E. William

2012-01-01

1. Stewardship of biological and ecological resources requires the ability to make integrative assessments of ecological integrity. One of the emerging methods for making such integrative assessments is multimetric indices (MMIs). These indices synthesize data, often from multiple levels of biological organization, with the goal of deriving a single index that reflects the overall effects of human disturbance. Despite the widespread use of MMIs, there is uncertainty about why this approach can be effective. An understanding of MMIs requires a quantitative theory that illustrates how the properties of candidate metrics relates to MMIs generated from those metrics. 2. We present the initial basis for such a theory by deriving the general mathematical characteristics of MMIs assembled from metrics. We then use the theory to derive quantitative answers to the following questions: Is there an optimal number of metrics to comprise an index? How does covariance among metrics affect the performance of the index derived from those metrics? And what are the criteria to decide whether a given metric will improve the performance of an index? 3. We find that the optimal number of metrics to be included in an index depends on the theoretical distribution of signal of the disturbance gradient contained in each metric. For example, if the rank-ordered parameters of a metric-disturbance regression can be described by a monotonically decreasing function, then an optimum number of metrics exists and can often be derived analytically. We derive the conditions by which adding a given metric can be expected to improve an index. 4. We find that the criterion defining such conditions depends nonlinearly of the signal of the disturbance gradient, the noise (error) of the metric and the correlation of the metric errors. Importantly, we find that correlation among metric errors increases the signal required for the metric to improve the index. 5. The theoretical framework presented in this study provides the basis for understanding the properties of MMIs. It can also be useful throughout the index construction process. Specifically, it can be used to aid understanding of the benefits and limitations of combining metrics into indices; it can inform selection/collection of candidate metrics; and it can be used directly as a decision aid in effective index construction.

NP-hardness of decoding quantum error-correction codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Min-Hsiu; Le Gall, François

2011-05-01

Although the theory of quantum error correction is intimately related to classical coding theory and, in particular, one can construct quantum error-correction codes (QECCs) from classical codes with the dual-containing property, this does not necessarily imply that the computational complexity of decoding QECCs is the same as their classical counterparts. Instead, decoding QECCs can be very much different from decoding classical codes due to the degeneracy property. Intuitively, one expects degeneracy would simplify the decoding since two different errors might not and need not be distinguished in order to correct them. However, we show that general quantum decoding problem is NP-hard regardless of the quantum codes being degenerate or nondegenerate. This finding implies that no considerably fast decoding algorithm exists for the general quantum decoding problems and suggests the existence of a quantum cryptosystem based on the hardness of decoding QECCs.

Bayesian truncation errors in chiral effective field theory: model checking and accounting for correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Jordan; Wesolowski, Sarah; Furnstahl, Dick

2017-09-01

Chiral effective field theory (EFT) predictions are necessarily truncated at some order in the EFT expansion, which induces an error that must be quantified for robust statistical comparisons to experiment. A Bayesian model yields posterior probability distribution functions for these errors based on expectations of naturalness encoded in Bayesian priors and the observed order-by-order convergence pattern of the EFT. As a general example of a statistical approach to truncation errors, the model was applied to chiral EFT for neutron-proton scattering using various semi-local potentials of Epelbaum, Krebs, and Meißner (EKM). Here we discuss how our model can learn correlation information from the data and how to perform Bayesian model checking to validate that the EFT is working as advertised. Supported in part by NSF PHY-1614460 and DOE NUCLEI SciDAC DE-SC0008533.

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muinonen, K.; Bowell, Edward

1992-01-01

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Examining Impulse-Variability in Kicking.

PubMed

Chappell, Andrew; Molina, Sergio L; McKibben, Jonathon; Stodden, David F

2016-07-01

This study examined variability in kicking speed and spatial accuracy to test the impulse-variability theory prediction of an inverted-U function and the speed-accuracy trade-off. Twenty-eight 18- to 25-year-old adults kicked a playground ball at various percentages (50-100%) of their maximum speed at a wall target. Speed variability and spatial error were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA with built-in polynomial contrasts. Results indicated a significant inverse linear trajectory for speed variability (p < .001, η2= .345) where 50% and 60% maximum speed had significantly higher variability than the 100% condition. A significant quadratic fit was found for spatial error scores of mean radial error (p < .0001, η2 = .474) and subject-centroid radial error (p < .0001, η2 = .453). Findings suggest variability and accuracy of multijoint, ballistic skill performance may not follow the general principles of impulse-variability theory or the speed-accuracy trade-off.

Interprofessional communication and medical error: a reframing of research questions and approaches.

PubMed

Varpio, Lara; Hall, Pippa; Lingard, Lorelei; Schryer, Catherine F

2008-10-01

Progress toward understanding the links between interprofessional communication and issues of medical error has been slow. Recent research proposes that this delay may result from overlooking the complexities involved in interprofessional care. Medical education initiatives in this domain tend to simplify the complexities of team membership fluidity, rotation, and use of communication tools. A new theoretically informed research approach is required to take into account these complexities. To generate such an approach, we review two theories from the social sciences: Activity Theory and Knotworking. Using these perspectives, we propose that research into interprofessional communication and medical error can develop better understandings of (1) how and why medical errors are generated and (2) how and why gaps in team defenses occur. Such complexities will have to be investigated if students and practicing clinicians are to be adequately prepared to work safely in interprofessional teams.

Model error estimation for distributed systems described by elliptic equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, G.

1983-01-01

A function space approach is used to develop a theory for estimation of the errors inherent in an elliptic partial differential equation model for a distributed parameter system. By establishing knowledge of the inevitable deficiencies in the model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model. The function space solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for static shape determination of large flexible systems.

Errors, error detection, error correction and hippocampal-region damage: data and theories.

PubMed

MacKay, Donald G; Johnson, Laura W

2013-11-01

This review and perspective article outlines 15 observational constraints on theories of errors, error detection, and error correction, and their relation to hippocampal-region (HR) damage. The core observations come from 10 studies with H.M., an amnesic with cerebellar and HR damage but virtually no neocortical damage. Three studies examined the detection of errors planted in visual scenes (e.g., a bird flying in a fish bowl in a school classroom) and sentences (e.g., I helped themselves to the birthday cake). In all three experiments, H.M. detected reliably fewer errors than carefully matched memory-normal controls. Other studies examined the detection and correction of self-produced errors, with controls for comprehension of the instructions, impaired visual acuity, temporal factors, motoric slowing, forgetting, excessive memory load, lack of motivation, and deficits in visual scanning or attention. In these studies, H.M. corrected reliably fewer errors than memory-normal and cerebellar controls, and his uncorrected errors in speech, object naming, and reading aloud exhibited two consistent features: omission and anomaly. For example, in sentence production tasks, H.M. omitted one or more words in uncorrected encoding errors that rendered his sentences anomalous (incoherent, incomplete, or ungrammatical) reliably more often than controls. Besides explaining these core findings, the theoretical principles discussed here explain H.M.'s retrograde amnesia for once familiar episodic and semantic information; his anterograde amnesia for novel information; his deficits in visual cognition, sentence comprehension, sentence production, sentence reading, and object naming; and effects of aging on his ability to read isolated low frequency words aloud. These theoretical principles also explain a wide range of other data on error detection and correction and generate new predictions for future test. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ancestral trees for modeling stem cell lineages genetically rather than functionally: understanding mutation accumulation and distinguishing the restrictive cancer stem cell propagation theory and the unrestricted cell propagation theory of human tumorigenesis.

PubMed

Shibata, Darryl K; Kern, Scott E

2008-01-01

Cancer stem cells either could be rare or common in tumors, constituting the major distinction between the two fundamentally opposed theoretical models of tumor progression: A newer and restrictive stem cell propagation model, in which the stem cells are a small and special minority of the tumor cells, and a standard older model, an unrestricted cell proliferation theory, in which many or most tumor cells are capable of indefinite generations of cell division. Stem cells of tumors are difficult to quantitate using functional assays, and the validity of the most common assays is seriously questioned. Nonetheless, stem cells are an essential component of any tumorigenesis model. Alternative approaches to studying tumor stem cells should be explored. Cell populations can be conceived of as having a genealogy, a relationship of cells to their ancestral lineage, from the zygote to the adult cells or neoplasms. Models using ancestral trees thus offer an anatomic and genetic means to "observe" stem cells independent of artificial conditions. Ancestral trees broaden our attention backward along a lineage, to the zygote stage, and thereby add insight into how the mutations of tumors accumulate. It is possible that a large fraction of mutations in a tumor originate from normal, endogenous, replication errors (nearly all being passenger mutations) occurring prior to the emergence of the first transformed cell. Trees can be constructed from experimental measurements - molecular clocks - of real human tissues and tumors. Detailed analysis of single-cell methylation patterns, heritable yet slightly plastic, now can provide this information in the necessary depth. Trees based on observations of molecular clocks may help us to distinguish between competing theories regarding the proliferative properties among cells of actual human tumors, to observe subtle and difficult phenomena such as the extinction of stem lineages, and to address the origins and rates of mutations in various normal, hormone-stimulated, aging, or neoplastic tissues. The simple concept that cancers arise from the transformation of a normal stem cell, the stem cell origination theory, is sometimes superficially and confusingly referred to as "the stem cell theory". This concept is compatible with but not a requisite assumption for both of the major competing theories of tumor progression, and plays essentially no role in clarifying the nature of tumor progression.

When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

PubMed

Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

2017-10-01

Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deep Brain Stimulation Frequency—A Divining Rod for New and Novel Concepts of Nervous System Function and Therapy

PubMed Central

Montgomery, Erwin B.; He, Huang

2016-01-01

The efficacy of Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) for an expanding array of neurological and psychiatric disorders demonstrates directly that DBS affects the basic electroneurophysiological mechanisms of the brain. The increasing array of active electrode configurations, stimulation currents, pulse widths, frequencies, and pulse patterns provides valuable tools to probe electroneurophysiological mechanisms. The extension of basic electroneurophysiological and anatomical concepts using sophisticated computational modeling and simulation has provided relatively straightforward explanations of all the DBS parameters except frequency. This article summarizes current thought about frequency and relevant observations. Current methodological and conceptual errors are critically examined in the hope that future work will not replicate these errors. One possible alternative theory is presented to provide a contrast to many current theories. DBS, conceptually, is a noisy discrete oscillator interacting with the basal ganglia–thalamic–cortical system of multiple re-entrant, discrete oscillators. Implications for positive and negative resonance, stochastic resonance and coherence, noisy synchronization, and holographic memory (related to movement generation) are presented. The time course of DBS neuronal responses demonstrates evolution of the DBS response consistent with the dynamics of re-entrant mechanisms. Finally, computational modeling demonstrates identical dynamics as seen by neuronal activities recorded from human and nonhuman primates, illustrating the differences of discrete from continuous harmonic oscillators and the power of conceptualizing the nervous system as composed on interacting discrete nonlinear oscillators. PMID:27548234

Compound Stimulus Presentation Does Not Deepen Extinction in Human Causal Learning

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Oren; Holmes, Nathan; Westbrook, R. Fred

2017-01-01

Models of associative learning have proposed that cue-outcome learning critically depends on the degree of prediction error encountered during training. Two experiments examined the role of error-driven extinction learning in a human causal learning task. Target cues underwent extinction in the presence of additional cues, which differed in the degree to which they predicted the outcome, thereby manipulating outcome expectancy and, in the absence of any change in reinforcement, prediction error. These prediction error manipulations have each been shown to modulate extinction learning in aversive conditioning studies. While both manipulations resulted in increased prediction error during training, neither enhanced extinction in the present human learning task (one manipulation resulted in less extinction at test). The results are discussed with reference to the types of associations that are regulated by prediction error, the types of error terms involved in their regulation, and how these interact with parameters involved in training. PMID:28232809

Behavioural variation in 172 small-scale societies indicates that social learning is the main mode of human adaptation.

PubMed

Mathew, Sarah; Perreault, Charles

2015-07-07

The behavioural variation among human societies is vast and unmatched in the animal world. It is unclear whether this variation is due to variation in the ecological environment or to differences in cultural traditions. Underlying this debate is a more fundamental question: is the richness of humans' behavioural repertoire due to non-cultural mechanisms, such as causal reasoning, inventiveness, reaction norms, trial-and-error learning and evoked culture, or is it due to the population-level dynamics of cultural transmission? Here, we measure the relative contribution of environment and cultural history in explaining the behavioural variation of 172 Native American tribes at the time of European contact. We find that the effect of cultural history is typically larger than that of environment. Behaviours also persist over millennia within cultural lineages. This indicates that human behaviour is not predominantly determined by single-generation adaptive responses, contra theories that emphasize non-cultural mechanisms as determinants of human behaviour. Rather, the main mode of human adaptation is social learning mechanisms that operate over multiple generations. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Human errors and occupational injuries of older female workers in the residential healthcare facilities for the elderly.

PubMed

Kim, Jun Sik; Jeong, Byung Yong

2018-05-03

The study aimed to describe the characteristics of occupational injuries of female workers in the residential healthcare facilities for the elderly, and analyze human errors as causes of accidents. From the national industrial accident compensation data, 506 female injuries were analyzed by age and occupation. The results showed that medical service worker was the most prevalent (54.1%), followed by social welfare worker (20.4%). Among injuries, 55.7% were <1 year of work experience, and 37.9% were ≥60 years old. Slips/falls were the most common type of accident (42.7%), and proportion of injured by slips/falls increases with age. Among human errors, action errors were the primary reasons, followed by perception errors, and cognition errors. Besides, the ratios of injuries by perception errors and action errors increase with age, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that there is a need to design workplaces that accommodate the characteristics of older female workers.

The evidence of the rugoscopy effectiveness as a human identification method in patients submitted to rapid palatal expansion.

PubMed

Barbieri, Ana A; Scoralick, Raquel A; Naressi, Suely C M; Moraes, Mari E L; Daruge, Eduardo; Daruge, Eduardo

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effectiveness of rugoscopy as a human identification method, even when the patient is submitted to rapid palatal expansion, which in theory would introduce doubt. With this intent, the Rugoscopic Identity was obtained for each subject using the classification formula proposed by Santos based on the intra-oral casts made before and after treatment from patients who were subjected to palatal expansion. The casts were labeled with the patients' initials and randomly arranged for studying. The palatine rugae kept the same patterns in every case studied. The technical error of the intra-evaluator measurement provided a confidence interval of 95%, making rugoscopy a reliable identification method for patients who were submitted to rapid palatal expansion, because even in the presence of intra-oral changes owing to the use of palatal expanders, the palatine rugae retained the biological and technical requirements for the human identification process. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Explanatory pluralism: An unrewarding prediction error for free energy theorists.

PubMed

Colombo, Matteo; Wright, Cory

2017-03-01

Courtesy of its free energy formulation, the hierarchical predictive processing theory of the brain (PTB) is often claimed to be a grand unifying theory. To test this claim, we examine a central case: activity of mesocorticolimbic dopaminergic (DA) systems. After reviewing the three most prominent hypotheses of DA activity-the anhedonia, incentive salience, and reward prediction error hypotheses-we conclude that the evidence currently vindicates explanatory pluralism. This vindication implies that the grand unifying claims of advocates of PTB are unwarranted. More generally, we suggest that the form of scientific progress in the cognitive sciences is unlikely to be a single overarching grand unifying theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contextual Advantage for State Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmid, David; Spekkens, Robert W.

2018-02-01

Finding quantitative aspects of quantum phenomena which cannot be explained by any classical model has foundational importance for understanding the boundary between classical and quantum theory. It also has practical significance for identifying information processing tasks for which those phenomena provide a quantum advantage. Using the framework of generalized noncontextuality as our notion of classicality, we find one such nonclassical feature within the phenomenology of quantum minimum-error state discrimination. Namely, we identify quantitative limits on the success probability for minimum-error state discrimination in any experiment described by a noncontextual ontological model. These constraints constitute noncontextuality inequalities that are violated by quantum theory, and this violation implies a quantum advantage for state discrimination relative to noncontextual models. Furthermore, our noncontextuality inequalities are robust to noise and are operationally formulated, so that any experimental violation of the inequalities is a witness of contextuality, independently of the validity of quantum theory. Along the way, we introduce new methods for analyzing noncontextuality scenarios and demonstrate a tight connection between our minimum-error state discrimination scenario and a Bell scenario.

[Risk and risk management in aviation].

PubMed

Müller, Manfred

2004-10-01

RISK MANAGEMENT: The large proportion of human errors in aviation accidents suggested the solution--at first sight brilliant--to replace the fallible human being by an "infallible" digitally-operating computer. However, even after the introduction of the so-called HITEC-airplanes, the factor human error still accounts for 75% of all accidents. Thus, if the computer is ruled out as the ultimate safety system, how else can complex operations involving quick and difficult decisions be controlled? OPTIMIZED TEAM INTERACTION/PARALLEL CONNECTION OF THOUGHT MACHINES: Since a single person is always "highly error-prone", support and control have to be guaranteed by a second person. The independent work of mind results in a safety network that more efficiently cushions human errors. NON-PUNITIVE ERROR MANAGEMENT: To be able to tackle the actual problems, the open discussion of intervened errors must not be endangered by the threat of punishment. It has been shown in the past that progress is primarily achieved by investigating and following up mistakes, failures and catastrophes shortly after they happened. HUMAN FACTOR RESEARCH PROJECT: A comprehensive survey showed the following result: By far the most frequent safety-critical situation (37.8% of all events) consists of the following combination of risk factors: 1. A complication develops. 2. In this situation of increased stress a human error occurs. 3. The negative effects of the error cannot be corrected or eased because there are deficiencies in team interaction on the flight deck. This means, for example, that a negative social climate has the effect of a "turbocharger" when a human error occurs. It needs to be pointed out that a negative social climate is not identical with a dispute. In many cases the working climate is burdened without the responsible person even noticing it: A first negative impression, too much or too little respect, contempt, misunderstandings, not expressing unclear concern, etc. can considerably reduce the efficiency of a team.

What Randomized Benchmarking Actually Measures

DOE PAGES

Proctor, Timothy; Rudinger, Kenneth; Young, Kevin; ...

2017-09-28

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay rate of the observable survival probabilities, versus circuit length, yields a single error metric r. For Clifford gates with arbitrary small errors described by process matrices, r was believed to reliably correspond to the mean, over all Clifford gates, of the average gate infidelity between the imperfect gates and their ideal counterparts. We show that this quantity is not amore » well-defined property of a physical gate set. It depends on the representations used for the imperfect and ideal gates, and the variant typically computed in the literature can differ from r by orders of magnitude. We present new theories of the RB decay that are accurate for all small errors describable by process matrices, and show that the RB decay curve is a simple exponential for all such errors. Here, these theories allow explicit computation of the error rate that RB measures (r), but as far as we can tell it does not correspond to the infidelity of a physically allowed (completely positive) representation of the imperfect gates.« less

Improved tests of extra-dimensional physics and thermal quantum field theory from new Casimir force measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decca, R. S.; Fischbach, E.; Klimchitskaya, G. L.; Krause, D. E.; López, D.; Mostepanenko, V. M.

2003-12-01

We report new constraints on extra-dimensional models and other physics beyond the standard model based on measurements of the Casimir force between two dissimilar metals for separations in the range 0.2 1.2 μm. The Casimir force between a Au-coated sphere and a Cu-coated plate of a microelectromechanical torsional oscillator was measured statically with an absolute error of 0.3 pN. In addition, the Casimir pressure between two parallel plates was determined dynamically with an absolute error of ≈0.6 mPa. Within the limits of experimental and theoretical errors, the results are in agreement with a theory that takes into account the finite conductivity and roughness of the two metals. The level of agreement between experiment and theory was then used to set limits on the predictions of extra-dimensional physics and thermal quantum field theory. It is shown that two theoretical approaches to the thermal Casimir force which predict effects linear in temperature are ruled out by these experiments. Finally, constraints on Yukawa corrections to Newton’s law of gravity are strengthened by more than an order of magnitude in the range 56 330 nm.

Competition between learned reward and error outcome predictions in anterior cingulate cortex.

PubMed

Alexander, William H; Brown, Joshua W

2010-02-15

The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is implicated in performance monitoring and cognitive control. Non-human primate studies of ACC show prominent reward signals, but these are elusive in human studies, which instead show mainly conflict and error effects. Here we demonstrate distinct appetitive and aversive activity in human ACC. The error likelihood hypothesis suggests that ACC activity increases in proportion to the likelihood of an error, and ACC is also sensitive to the consequence magnitude of the predicted error. Previous work further showed that error likelihood effects reach a ceiling as the potential consequences of an error increase, possibly due to reductions in the average reward. We explored this issue by independently manipulating reward magnitude of task responses and error likelihood while controlling for potential error consequences in an Incentive Change Signal Task. The fMRI results ruled out a modulatory effect of expected reward on error likelihood effects in favor of a competition effect between expected reward and error likelihood. Dynamic causal modeling showed that error likelihood and expected reward signals are intrinsic to the ACC rather than received from elsewhere. These findings agree with interpretations of ACC activity as signaling both perceptions of risk and predicted reward. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Propagation of Errors in Experimental Data Analysis: A Comparison of Pre-and Post-Test Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorard, Stephen

2013-01-01

Experimental designs involving the randomization of cases to treatment and control groups are powerful and under-used in many areas of social science and social policy. This paper reminds readers of the pre-and post-test, and the post-test only, designs, before explaining briefly how measurement errors propagate according to error theory. The…

Temporal uncertainty analysis of human errors based on interrelationships among multiple factors: a case of Minuteman III missile accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin; Zhao, Tingdi

2016-01-01

In traditional approaches of human reliability assessment (HRA), the definition of the error producing conditions (EPCs) and the supporting guidance are such that some of the conditions (especially organizational or managerial conditions) can hardly be included, and thus the analysis is burdened with incomprehensiveness without reflecting the temporal trend of human reliability. A method based on system dynamics (SD), which highlights interrelationships among technical and organizational aspects that may contribute to human errors, is presented to facilitate quantitatively estimating the human error probability (HEP) and its related variables changing over time in a long period. Taking the Minuteman III missile accident in 2008 as a case, the proposed HRA method is applied to assess HEP during missile operations over 50 years by analyzing the interactions among the variables involved in human-related risks; also the critical factors are determined in terms of impact that the variables have on risks in different time periods. It is indicated that both technical and organizational aspects should be focused on to minimize human errors in a long run. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Systematic analysis of video data from different human-robot interaction studies: a categorization of social signals during error situations.

PubMed

Giuliani, Manuel; Mirnig, Nicole; Stollnberger, Gerald; Stadler, Susanne; Buchner, Roland; Tscheligi, Manfred

2015-01-01

Human-robot interactions are often affected by error situations that are caused by either the robot or the human. Therefore, robots would profit from the ability to recognize when error situations occur. We investigated the verbal and non-verbal social signals that humans show when error situations occur in human-robot interaction experiments. For that, we analyzed 201 videos of five human-robot interaction user studies with varying tasks from four independent projects. The analysis shows that there are two types of error situations: social norm violations and technical failures. Social norm violations are situations in which the robot does not adhere to the underlying social script of the interaction. Technical failures are caused by technical shortcomings of the robot. The results of the video analysis show that the study participants use many head movements and very few gestures, but they often smile, when in an error situation with the robot. Another result is that the participants sometimes stop moving at the beginning of error situations. We also found that the participants talked more in the case of social norm violations and less during technical failures. Finally, the participants use fewer non-verbal social signals (for example smiling, nodding, and head shaking), when they are interacting with the robot alone and no experimenter or other human is present. The results suggest that participants do not see the robot as a social interaction partner with comparable communication skills. Our findings have implications for builders and evaluators of human-robot interaction systems. The builders need to consider including modules for recognition and classification of head movements to the robot input channels. The evaluators need to make sure that the presence of an experimenter does not skew the results of their user studies.

Enhancing Undergraduate Mathematics Curriculum via Coding Theory and Cryptography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aydin, Nuh

2009-01-01

The theory of error-correcting codes and cryptography are two relatively recent applications of mathematics to information and communication systems. The mathematical tools used in these fields generally come from algebra, elementary number theory, and combinatorics, including concepts from computational complexity. It is possible to introduce the…

Demonstrating the Difference between Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory Using Derived Test Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magno, Carlo

2009-01-01

The present report demonstrates the difference between classical test theory (CTT) and item response theory (IRT) approach using an actual test data for chemistry junior high school students. The CTT and IRT were compared across two samples and two forms of test on their item difficulty, internal consistency, and measurement errors. The specific…

A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, Antonio I.

The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer hypotheses for human testing using flight simulators.

Human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents: application of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification system (HFACS).

PubMed

Wiegmann, D A; Shappell, S A

2001-11-01

The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) is a general human error framework originally developed and tested within the U.S. military as a tool for investigating and analyzing the human causes of aviation accidents. Based on Reason's (1990) model of latent and active failures, HFACS addresses human error at all levels of the system, including the condition of aircrew and organizational factors. The purpose of the present study was to assess the utility of the HFACS framework as an error analysis and classification tool outside the military. The HFACS framework was used to analyze human error data associated with aircrew-related commercial aviation accidents that occurred between January 1990 and December 1996 using database records maintained by the NTSB and the FAA. Investigators were able to reliably accommodate all the human causal factors associated with the commercial aviation accidents examined in this study using the HFACS system. In addition, the classification of data using HFACS highlighted several critical safety issues in need of intervention research. These results demonstrate that the HFACS framework can be a viable tool for use within the civil aviation arena. However, additional research is needed to examine its applicability to areas outside the flight deck, such as aircraft maintenance and air traffic control domains.

To Err Is Human; To Structurally Prime from Errors Is Also Human

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slevc, L. Robert; Ferreira, Victor S.

2013-01-01

Natural language contains disfluencies and errors. Do listeners simply discard information that was clearly produced in error, or can erroneous material persist to affect subsequent processing? Two experiments explored this question using a structural priming paradigm. Speakers described dative-eliciting pictures after hearing prime sentences that…

The Attraction Effect Modulates Reward Prediction Errors and Intertemporal Choices.

PubMed

Gluth, Sebastian; Hotaling, Jared M; Rieskamp, Jörg

2017-01-11

Classical economic theory contends that the utility of a choice option should be independent of other options. This view is challenged by the attraction effect, in which the relative preference between two options is altered by the addition of a third, asymmetrically dominated option. Here, we leveraged the attraction effect in the context of intertemporal choices to test whether both decisions and reward prediction errors (RPE) in the absence of choice violate the independence of irrelevant alternatives principle. We first demonstrate that intertemporal decision making is prone to the attraction effect in humans. In an independent group of participants, we then investigated how this affects the neural and behavioral valuation of outcomes using a novel intertemporal lottery task and fMRI. Participants' behavioral responses (i.e., satisfaction ratings) were modulated systematically by the attraction effect and this modulation was correlated across participants with the respective change of the RPE signal in the nucleus accumbens. Furthermore, we show that, because exponential and hyperbolic discounting models are unable to account for the attraction effect, recently proposed sequential sampling models might be more appropriate to describe intertemporal choices. Our findings demonstrate for the first time that the attraction effect modulates subjective valuation even in the absence of choice. The findings also challenge the prospect of using neuroscientific methods to measure utility in a context-free manner and have important implications for theories of reinforcement learning and delay discounting. Many theories of value-based decision making assume that people first assess the attractiveness of each option independently of each other and then pick the option with the highest subjective value. The attraction effect, however, shows that adding a new option to a choice set can change the relative value of the existing options, which is a violation of the independence principle. Using an intertemporal choice framework, we tested whether such violations also occur when the brain encodes the difference between expected and received rewards (i.e., the reward prediction error). Our results suggest that neither intertemporal choice nor valuation without choice adhere to the independence principle. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370371-12$15.00/0.

Human factors analysis and classification system-HFACS.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

Human error has been implicated in 70 to 80% of all civil and military aviation accidents. Yet, most accident : reporting systems are not designed around any theoretical framework of human error. As a result, most : accident databases are not conduci...

Theory of mind in women with borderline personality disorder or schizophrenia: differences in overall ability and error patterns

PubMed Central

Vaskinn, Anja; Antonsen, Bjørnar T.; Fretland, Ragnhild A.; Dziobek, Isabel; Sundet, Kjetil; Wilberg, Theresa

2015-01-01

Although borderline personality disorder (BPD) and schizophrenia (SZ) are notably different mental disorders, they share problems in social cognition—or understanding the feelings, intentions and thoughts of other people. To date no studies have directly compared the social cognitive abilities of individuals with these two disorders. In this study, the social cognitive subdomain theory of mind was investigated in women with BPD (n = 25), women with SZ (n = 25) and healthy women (n = 25). An ecologically valid video-based measure (Movie for the Assessment of Social Cognition) was used. For the overall score, women with SZ performed markedly below both healthy women and women with BPD, whereas women with BPD did not perform significantly different compared to the healthy control group. A statistically significant error type × group interaction effect indicated that the groups differed with respect to kind of errors. Whereas women with BPD made mostly overmentalizing errors, women with SZ in addition committed undermentalizing errors. Our study suggests different magnitude and pattern of social cognitive problems in BPD and SZ. PMID:26379577

The genetic theory of infectious diseases: a brief history and selected illustrations.

PubMed

Casanova, Jean-Laurent; Abel, Laurent

2013-01-01

Until the mid-nineteenth century, life expectancy at birth averaged 20 years worldwide, owing mostly to childhood fevers. The germ theory of diseases then gradually overcame the belief that diseases were intrinsic. However, around the turn of the twentieth century, asymptomatic infection was discovered to be much more common than clinical disease. Paradoxically, this observation barely challenged the newly developed notion that infectious diseases were fundamentally extrinsic. Moreover, interindividual variability in the course of infection was typically explained by the emerging immunological (or somatic) theory of infectious diseases, best illustrated by the impact of vaccination. This powerful explanation is, however, best applicable to reactivation and secondary infections, particularly in adults; it can less easily account for interindividual variability in the course of primary infection during childhood. Population and clinical geneticists soon proposed a complementary hypothesis, a germline genetic theory of infectious diseases. Over the past century, this idea has gained some support, particularly among clinicians and geneticists, but has also encountered resistance, particularly among microbiologists and immunologists. We present here the genetic theory of infectious diseases and briefly discuss its history and the challenges encountered during its emergence in the context of the apparently competing but actually complementary microbiological and immunological theories. We also illustrate its recent achievements by highlighting inborn errors of immunity underlying eight life-threatening infectious diseases of children and young adults. Finally, we consider the far-reaching biological and clinical implications of the ongoing human genetic dissection of severe infectious diseases.

The Genetic Theory of Infectious Diseases: A Brief History and Selected Illustrations

PubMed Central

Casanova, Jean-Laurent; Abel, Laurent

2016-01-01

Until the mid-nineteenth century, life expectancy at birth averaged 20 years worldwide, owing mostly to childhood fevers. The germ theory of diseases then gradually overcame the belief that diseases were intrinsic. However, around the turn of the twentieth century, asymptomatic infection was discovered to be much more common than clinical disease. Paradoxically, this observation barely challenged the newly developed notion that infectious diseases were fundamentally extrinsic. Moreover, interindividual variability in the course of infection was typically explained by the emerging immunological (or somatic) theory of infectious diseases, best illustrated by the impact of vaccination. This powerful explanation is, however, best applicable to reactivation and secondary infections, particularly in adults; it can less easily account for interindividual variability in the course of primary infection during childhood. Population and clinical geneticists soon proposed a complementary hypothesis, a germline genetic theory of infectious diseases. Over the past century, this idea has gained some support, particularly among clinicians and geneticists, but has also encountered resistance, particularly among microbiologists and immunologists. We present here the genetic theory of infectious diseases and briefly discuss its history and the challenges encountered during its emergence in the context of the apparently competing but actually complementary microbiological and immunological theories. We also illustrate its recent achievements by highlighting inborn errors of immunity underlying eight life-threatening infectious diseases of children and young adults. Finally, we consider the far-reaching biological and clinical implications of the ongoing human genetic dissection of severe infectious diseases. PMID:23724903

Technical approaches for measurement of human errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clement, W. F.; Heffley, R. K.; Jewell, W. F.; Mcruer, D. T.

1980-01-01

Human error is a significant contributing factor in a very high proportion of civil transport, general aviation, and rotorcraft accidents. The technical details of a variety of proven approaches for the measurement of human errors in the context of the national airspace system are presented. Unobtrusive measurements suitable for cockpit operations and procedures in part of full mission simulation are emphasized. Procedure, system performance, and human operator centered measurements are discussed as they apply to the manual control, communication, supervisory, and monitoring tasks which are relevant to aviation operations.

Hypernatural Monitoring: A Social Rehearsal Account of Smartphone Addiction

PubMed Central

Veissière, Samuel P. L.; Stendel, Moriah

2018-01-01

We present a deflationary account of smartphone addiction by situating this purportedly antisocial phenomenon within the fundamentally social dispositions of our species. While we agree with contemporary critics that the hyper-connectedness and unpredictable rewards of mobile technology can modulate negative affect, we propose to place the locus of addiction on an evolutionarily older mechanism: the human need to monitor and be monitored by others. Drawing from key findings in evolutionary anthropology and the cognitive science of religion, we articulate a hypernatural monitoring model of smartphone addiction grounded in a general social rehearsal theory of human cognition. Building on recent predictive-processing views of perception and addiction in cognitive neuroscience, we describe the role of social reward anticipation and prediction errors in mediating dysfunctional smartphone use. We conclude with insights from contemplative philosophies and harm-reduction models on finding the right rituals for honoring social connections and setting intentional protocols for the consumption of social information. PMID:29515480

Hypernatural Monitoring: A Social Rehearsal Account of Smartphone Addiction.

PubMed

Veissière, Samuel P L; Stendel, Moriah

2018-01-01

We present a deflationary account of smartphone addiction by situating this purportedly antisocial phenomenon within the fundamentally social dispositions of our species. While we agree with contemporary critics that the hyper-connectedness and unpredictable rewards of mobile technology can modulate negative affect, we propose to place the locus of addiction on an evolutionarily older mechanism: the human need to monitor and be monitored by others. Drawing from key findings in evolutionary anthropology and the cognitive science of religion, we articulate a hypernatural monitoring model of smartphone addiction grounded in a general social rehearsal theory of human cognition. Building on recent predictive-processing views of perception and addiction in cognitive neuroscience, we describe the role of social reward anticipation and prediction errors in mediating dysfunctional smartphone use. We conclude with insights from contemplative philosophies and harm-reduction models on finding the right rituals for honoring social connections and setting intentional protocols for the consumption of social information.

Remembering Places in Space: A Human Analog Study of the Morris Water Maze

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitting, Sylvia; Allen, Gary L.; Wedell, Douglas H.

We conducted a human analog study of the Morris Water Maze, with individuals indicating a remembered location in a 3 m diameter arena over different intervals of time and with different memory loads. The primary focus of the study was to test a theory of how varying cue location and number of cues affects memory for spatial location. As expected, memory performance, as measured by proximity to the actual location, was negatively affected by increasing memory load, increasing delay interval, and decreasing the number of cues. As memory performance decremented, bias effects increased and were in accordance with the cue-based memory model described by Fitting, Wedell and Allen (2005). Specifically, remembered locations were biased toward the nearest cue and error decreased with more cues. These results demonstrate that localization processes that apply to small two-dimensional task fields may generalize to a larger traversable task field.

Toward Joint Hypothesis-Tests Seismic Event Screening Analysis: Ms|mb and Event Depth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Dale; Selby, Neil

2012-08-14

Well established theory can be used to combine single-phenomenology hypothesis tests into a multi-phenomenology event screening hypothesis test (Fisher's and Tippett's tests). Commonly used standard error in Ms:mb event screening hypothesis test is not fully consistent with physical basis. Improved standard error - Better agreement with physical basis, and correctly partitions error to include Model Error as a component of variance, correctly reduces station noise variance through network averaging. For 2009 DPRK test - Commonly used standard error 'rejects' H0 even with better scaling slope ({beta} = 1, Selby et al.), improved standard error 'fails to rejects' H0.

Application of round grating angle measurement composite error amendment in the online measurement accuracy improvement of large diameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Biao; Yu, Xiaofen; Li, Qinzhao; Zheng, Yu

2008-10-01

The paper aiming at the influence factor of round grating dividing error, rolling-wheel produce eccentricity and surface shape errors provides an amendment method based on rolling-wheel to get the composite error model which includes all influence factors above, and then corrects the non-circle measurement angle error of the rolling-wheel. We make soft simulation verification and have experiment; the result indicates that the composite error amendment method can improve the diameter measurement accuracy with rolling-wheel theory. It has wide application prospect for the measurement accuracy higher than 5 μm/m.

Linearizing feedforward/feedback attitude control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paielli, Russell A.; Bach, Ralph E.

1991-01-01

An approach to attitude control theory is introduced in which a linear form is postulated for the closed-loop rotation error dynamics, then the exact control law required to realize it is derived. The nonminimal (four-component) quaternion form is used to attitude because it is globally nonsingular, but the minimal (three-component) quaternion form is used for attitude error because it has no nonlinear constraints to prevent the rotational error dynamics from being linearized, and the definition of the attitude error is based on quaternion algebra. This approach produces an attitude control law that linearizes the closed-loop rotational error dynamics exactly, without any attitude singularities, even if the control errors become large.

Automated Classification of Phonological Errors in Aphasic Language

PubMed Central

Ahuja, Sanjeev B.; Reggia, James A.; Berndt, Rita S.

1984-01-01

Using heuristically-guided state space search, a prototype program has been developed to simulate and classify phonemic errors occurring in the speech of neurologically-impaired patients. Simulations are based on an interchangeable rule/operator set of elementary errors which represent a theory of phonemic processing faults. This work introduces and evaluates a novel approach to error simulation and classification, it provides a prototype simulation tool for neurolinguistic research, and it forms the initial phase of a larger research effort involving computer modelling of neurolinguistic processes.

The dynamics of error processing in the human brain as reflected by high-gamma activity in noninvasive and intracranial EEG.

PubMed

Völker, Martin; Fiederer, Lukas D J; Berberich, Sofie; Hammer, Jiří; Behncke, Joos; Kršek, Pavel; Tomášek, Martin; Marusič, Petr; Reinacher, Peter C; Coenen, Volker A; Helias, Moritz; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Burgard, Wolfram; Ball, Tonio

2018-06-01

Error detection in motor behavior is a fundamental cognitive function heavily relying on local cortical information processing. Neural activity in the high-gamma frequency band (HGB) closely reflects such local cortical processing, but little is known about its role in error processing, particularly in the healthy human brain. Here we characterize the error-related response of the human brain based on data obtained with noninvasive EEG optimized for HGB mapping in 31 healthy subjects (15 females, 16 males), and additional intracranial EEG data from 9 epilepsy patients (4 females, 5 males). Our findings reveal a multiscale picture of the global and local dynamics of error-related HGB activity in the human brain. On the global level as reflected in the noninvasive EEG, the error-related response started with an early component dominated by anterior brain regions, followed by a shift to parietal regions, and a subsequent phase characterized by sustained parietal HGB activity. This phase lasted for more than 1 s after the error onset. On the local level reflected in the intracranial EEG, a cascade of both transient and sustained error-related responses involved an even more extended network, spanning beyond frontal and parietal regions to the insula and the hippocampus. HGB mapping appeared especially well suited to investigate late, sustained components of the error response, possibly linked to downstream functional stages such as error-related learning and behavioral adaptation. Our findings establish the basic spatio-temporal properties of HGB activity as a neural correlate of error processing, complementing traditional error-related potential studies. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MONOCULAR DIPLOPIA DUE TO SPHEROCYLINDRICAL REFRACTIVE ERRORS (AN AMERICAN OPHTHALMOLOGICAL SOCIETY THESIS)

PubMed Central

Archer, Steven M.

2007-01-01

Purpose Ordinary spherocylindrical refractive errors have been recognized as a cause of monocular diplopia for over a century, yet explanation of this phenomenon using geometrical optics has remained problematic. This study tests the hypothesis that the diffraction theory treatment of refractive errors will provide a more satisfactory explanation of monocular diplopia. Methods Diffraction theory calculations were carried out for modulation transfer functions, point spread functions, and line spread functions under conditions of defocus, astigmatism, and mixed spherocylindrical refractive errors. Defocused photographs of inked and projected black lines were made to demonstrate the predicted consequences of the theoretical calculations. Results For certain amounts of defocus, line spread functions resulting from spherical defocus are predicted to have a bimodal intensity distribution that could provide the basis for diplopia with line targets. Multimodal intensity distributions are predicted in point spread functions and provide a basis for diplopia or polyopia of point targets under conditions of astigmatism. The predicted doubling effect is evident in defocused photographs of black lines, but the effect is not as robust as the subjective experience of monocular diplopia. Conclusions Monocular diplopia due to ordinary refractive errors can be predicted from diffraction theory. Higher-order aberrations—such as spherical aberration—are not necessary but may, under some circumstances, enhance the features of monocular diplopia. The physical basis for monocular diplopia is relatively subtle, and enhancement by neural processing is probably needed to account for the robustness of the percept. PMID:18427616

Distributed consensus for discrete-time heterogeneous multi-agent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Huanyu; Fei, Shumin

2018-06-01

This paper studies the consensus problem for a class of discrete-time heterogeneous multi-agent systems. Two kinds of consensus algorithms will be considered. The heterogeneous multi-agent systems considered are converted into equivalent error systems by a model transformation. Then we analyse the consensus problem of the original systems by analysing the stability problem of the error systems. Some sufficient conditions for consensus of heterogeneous multi-agent systems are obtained by applying algebraic graph theory and matrix theory. Simulation examples are presented to show the usefulness of the results.

Using the Sampling Margin of Error to Assess the Interpretative Validity of Student Evaluations of Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, David E.; Schraw, Gregory; Kuch, Fred

2015-01-01

We present an equation, derived from standard statistical theory, that can be used to estimate sampling margin of error for student evaluations of teaching (SETs). We use the equation to examine the effect of sample size, response rates and sample variability on the estimated sampling margin of error, and present results in four tables that allow…

Effective field theory approach to heavy quark fragmentation

DOE PAGES

Fickinger, Michael; Fleming, Sean; Kim, Chul; ...

2016-11-17

Using an approach based on Soft Collinear Effective Theory (SCET) and Heavy Quark Effective Theory (HQET) we determine the b-quark fragmentation function from electron-positron annihilation data at the Z-boson peak at next-to-next-to leading order with next-to-next-to leading log resummation of DGLAP logarithms, and next-to-next-to-next-to leading log resummation of endpoint logarithms. This analysis improves, by one order, the previous extraction of the b-quark fragmentation function. We find that while the addition of the next order in the calculation does not much shift the extracted form of the fragmentation function, it does reduce theoretical errors indicating that the expansion is converging. Usingmore » an approach based on effective field theory allows us to systematically control theoretical errors. Furthermore, while the fits of theory to data are generally good, the fits seem to be hinting that higher order correction from HQET may be needed to explain the b-quark fragmentation function at smaller values of momentum fraction.« less

Communication: Recovering the flat-plane condition in electronic structure theory at semi-local DFT cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajaj, Akash; Janet, Jon Paul; Kulik, Heather J.

2017-11-01

The flat-plane condition is the union of two exact constraints in electronic structure theory: (i) energetic piecewise linearity with fractional electron removal or addition and (ii) invariant energetics with change in electron spin in a half filled orbital. Semi-local density functional theory (DFT) fails to recover the flat plane, exhibiting convex fractional charge errors (FCE) and concave fractional spin errors (FSE) that are related to delocalization and static correlation errors. We previously showed that DFT+U eliminates FCE but now demonstrate that, like other widely employed corrections (i.e., Hartree-Fock exchange), it worsens FSE. To find an alternative strategy, we examine the shape of semi-local DFT deviations from the exact flat plane and we find this shape to be remarkably consistent across ions and molecules. We introduce the judiciously modified DFT (jmDFT) approach, wherein corrections are constructed from few-parameter, low-order functional forms that fit the shape of semi-local DFT errors. We select one such physically intuitive form and incorporate it self-consistently to correct semi-local DFT. We demonstrate on model systems that jmDFT represents the first easy-to-implement, no-overhead approach to recovering the flat plane from semi-local DFT.

Development of an errorable car-following driver model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.-H.; Peng, H.

2010-06-01

An errorable car-following driver model is presented in this paper. An errorable driver model is one that emulates human driver's functions and can generate both nominal (error-free), as well as devious (with error) behaviours. This model was developed for evaluation and design of active safety systems. The car-following data used for developing and validating the model were obtained from a large-scale naturalistic driving database. The stochastic car-following behaviour was first analysed and modelled as a random process. Three error-inducing behaviours were then introduced. First, human perceptual limitation was studied and implemented. Distraction due to non-driving tasks was then identified based on the statistical analysis of the driving data. Finally, time delay of human drivers was estimated through a recursive least-square identification process. By including these three error-inducing behaviours, rear-end collisions with the lead vehicle could occur. The simulated crash rate was found to be similar but somewhat higher than that reported in traffic statistics.

Error estimation in the neural network solution of ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Filici, Cristian

2010-06-01

In this article a method of error estimation for the neural approximation of the solution of an Ordinary Differential Equation is presented. Some examples of the application of the method support the theory presented. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Lost in Translation: the Case for Integrated Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Aaron

2017-01-01

The building of a spacecraft is complex and often involves multiple suppliers and companies that have their own designs and processes. Standards have been developed across the industries to reduce the chances for critical flight errors at the system level, but the spacecraft is still vulnerable to the introduction of critical errors during integration of these systems. Critical errors can occur at any time during the process and in many cases, human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies human error as a risk driver. Most programs have a test plan in place that is intended to catch these errors, but it is not uncommon for schedule and cost stress to result in less testing than initially planned. Therefore, integrated testing, or "testing as you fly," is essential as a final check on the design and assembly to catch any errors prior to the mission. This presentation will outline the unique benefits of integrated testing by catching critical flight errors that can otherwise go undetected, discuss HRA methods that are used to identify opportunities for human error, lessons learned and challenges over ownership of testing will be discussed.

Modelling Transposition Latencies: Constraints for Theories of Serial Order Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farrell, Simon; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2004-01-01

Several competing theories of short-term memory can explain serial recall performance at a quantitative level. However, most theories to date have not been applied to the accompanying pattern of response latencies, thus ignoring a rich and highly diagnostic aspect of performance. This article explores and tests the error latency predictions of…

Sample Size for Estimation of G and Phi Coefficients in Generalizability Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atilgan, Hakan

2013-01-01

Problem Statement: Reliability, which refers to the degree to which measurement results are free from measurement errors, as well as its estimation, is an important issue in psychometrics. Several methods for estimating reliability have been suggested by various theories in the field of psychometrics. One of these theories is the generalizability…

Rasch-family models are more valuable than score-based approaches for analysing longitudinal patient-reported outcomes with missing data.

PubMed

de Bock, Élodie; Hardouin, Jean-Benoit; Blanchin, Myriam; Le Neel, Tanguy; Kubis, Gildas; Bonnaud-Antignac, Angélique; Dantan, Étienne; Sébille, Véronique

2016-10-01

The objective was to compare classical test theory and Rasch-family models derived from item response theory for the analysis of longitudinal patient-reported outcomes data with possibly informative intermittent missing items. A simulation study was performed in order to assess and compare the performance of classical test theory and Rasch model in terms of bias, control of the type I error and power of the test of time effect. The type I error was controlled for classical test theory and Rasch model whether data were complete or some items were missing. Both methods were unbiased and displayed similar power with complete data. When items were missing, Rasch model remained unbiased and displayed higher power than classical test theory. Rasch model performed better than the classical test theory approach regarding the analysis of longitudinal patient-reported outcomes with possibly informative intermittent missing items mainly for power. This study highlights the interest of Rasch-based models in clinical research and epidemiology for the analysis of incomplete patient-reported outcomes data. © The Author(s) 2013.

Human factors in aircraft incidents - Results of a 7-year study (Andre Allard Memorial Lecture)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billings, C. E.; Reynard, W. D.

1984-01-01

It is pointed out that nearly all fatal aircraft accidents are preventable, and that most such accidents are due to human error. The present discussion is concerned with the results of a seven-year study of the data collected by the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The Aviation Safety Reporting System was designed to stimulate as large a flow as possible of information regarding errors and operational problems in the conduct of air operations. It was implemented in April, 1976. In the following 7.5 years, 35,000 reports have been received from pilots, controllers, and the armed forces. Human errors are found in more than 80 percent of these reports. Attention is given to the types of events reported, possible causal factors in incidents, the relationship of incidents and accidents, and sources of error in the data. ASRS reports include sufficient detail to permit authorities to institute changes in the national aviation system designed to minimize the likelihood of human error, and to insulate the system against the effects of errors.

Human factors in surgery: from Three Mile Island to the operating room.

PubMed

D'Addessi, Alessandro; Bongiovanni, Luca; Volpe, Andrea; Pinto, Francesco; Bassi, PierFrancesco

2009-01-01

Human factors is a definition that includes the science of understanding the properties of human capability, the application of this understanding to the design and development of systems and services, the art of ensuring their successful applications to a program. The field of human factors traces its origins to the Second World War, but Three Mile Island has been the best example of how groups of people react and make decisions under stress: this nuclear accident was exacerbated by wrong decisions made because the operators were overwhelmed with irrelevant, misleading or incorrect information. Errors and their nature are the same in all human activities. The predisposition for error is so intrinsic to human nature that scientifically it is best considered as inherently biologic. The causes of error in medical care may not be easily generalized. Surgery differs in important ways: most errors occur in the operating room and are technical in nature. Commonly, surgical error has been thought of as the consequence of lack of skill or ability, and is the result of thoughtless actions. Moreover the 'operating theatre' has a unique set of team dynamics: professionals from multiple disciplines are required to work in a closely coordinated fashion. This complex environment provides multiple opportunities for unclear communication, clashing motivations, errors arising not from technical incompetence but from poor interpersonal skills. Surgeons have to work closely with human factors specialists in future studies. By improving processes already in place in many operating rooms, safety will be enhanced and quality increased.

An Information-Correction Method for Testlet-Based Test Analysis: From the Perspectives of Item Response Theory and Generalizability Theory. Research Report. ETS RR-17-27

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Feifei

2017-01-01

An information-correction method for testlet-based tests is introduced. This method takes advantage of both generalizability theory (GT) and item response theory (IRT). The measurement error for the examinee proficiency parameter is often underestimated when a unidimensional conditional-independence IRT model is specified for a testlet dataset. By…

Analyzing the errors of DFT approximations for compressed water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfè, D.; Bartók, A. P.; Csányi, G.; Gillan, M. J.

2014-07-01

We report an extensive study of the errors of density functional theory (DFT) approximations for compressed water systems. The approximations studied are based on the widely used PBE and BLYP exchange-correlation functionals, and we characterize their errors before and after correction for 1- and 2-body errors, the corrections being performed using the methods of Gaussian approximation potentials. The errors of the uncorrected and corrected approximations are investigated for two related types of water system: first, the compressed liquid at temperature 420 K and density 1.245 g/cm3 where the experimental pressure is 15 kilobars; second, thermal samples of compressed water clusters from the trimer to the 27-mer. For the liquid, we report four first-principles molecular dynamics simulations, two generated with the uncorrected PBE and BLYP approximations and a further two with their 1- and 2-body corrected counterparts. The errors of the simulations are characterized by comparing with experimental data for the pressure, with neutron-diffraction data for the three radial distribution functions, and with quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) benchmarks for the energies of sets of configurations of the liquid in periodic boundary conditions. The DFT errors of the configuration samples of compressed water clusters are computed using QMC benchmarks. We find that the 2-body and beyond-2-body errors in the liquid are closely related to similar errors exhibited by the clusters. For both the liquid and the clusters, beyond-2-body errors of DFT make a substantial contribution to the overall errors, so that correction for 1- and 2-body errors does not suffice to give a satisfactory description. For BLYP, a recent representation of 3-body energies due to Medders, Babin, and Paesani [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 9, 1103 (2013)] gives a reasonably good way of correcting for beyond-2-body errors, after which the remaining errors are typically 0.5 mEh ≃ 15 meV/monomer for the liquid and the clusters.

Analyzing the errors of DFT approximations for compressed water systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alfè, D.; London Centre for Nanotechnology, UCL, London WC1H 0AH; Thomas Young Centre, UCL, London WC1H 0AH

We report an extensive study of the errors of density functional theory (DFT) approximations for compressed water systems. The approximations studied are based on the widely used PBE and BLYP exchange-correlation functionals, and we characterize their errors before and after correction for 1- and 2-body errors, the corrections being performed using the methods of Gaussian approximation potentials. The errors of the uncorrected and corrected approximations are investigated for two related types of water system: first, the compressed liquid at temperature 420 K and density 1.245 g/cm{sup 3} where the experimental pressure is 15 kilobars; second, thermal samples of compressed watermore » clusters from the trimer to the 27-mer. For the liquid, we report four first-principles molecular dynamics simulations, two generated with the uncorrected PBE and BLYP approximations and a further two with their 1- and 2-body corrected counterparts. The errors of the simulations are characterized by comparing with experimental data for the pressure, with neutron-diffraction data for the three radial distribution functions, and with quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) benchmarks for the energies of sets of configurations of the liquid in periodic boundary conditions. The DFT errors of the configuration samples of compressed water clusters are computed using QMC benchmarks. We find that the 2-body and beyond-2-body errors in the liquid are closely related to similar errors exhibited by the clusters. For both the liquid and the clusters, beyond-2-body errors of DFT make a substantial contribution to the overall errors, so that correction for 1- and 2-body errors does not suffice to give a satisfactory description. For BLYP, a recent representation of 3-body energies due to Medders, Babin, and Paesani [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 9, 1103 (2013)] gives a reasonably good way of correcting for beyond-2-body errors, after which the remaining errors are typically 0.5 mE{sub h} ≃ 15 meV/monomer for the liquid and the clusters.« less

The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System : HFACS : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

Human error has been implicated in 70 to 80% of all civil and military aviation accidents. Yet, most accident reporting systems are not designed around any theoretical framework of human error. As a result, most accident databases are not conducive t...

Differential reliance of chimpanzees and humans on automatic and deliberate control of motor actions.

PubMed

Kaneko, Takaaki; Tomonaga, Masaki

2014-06-01

Humans are often unaware of how they control their limb motor movements. People pay attention to their own motor movements only when their usual motor routines encounter errors. Yet little is known about the extent to which voluntary actions rely on automatic control and when automatic control shifts to deliberate control in nonhuman primates. In this study, we demonstrate that chimpanzees and humans showed similar limb motor adjustment in response to feedback error during reaching actions, whereas attentional allocation inferred from gaze behavior differed. We found that humans shifted attention to their own motor kinematics as errors were induced in motor trajectory feedback regardless of whether the errors actually disrupted their reaching their action goals. In contrast, chimpanzees shifted attention to motor execution only when errors actually interfered with their achieving a planned action goal. These results indicate that the species differed in their criteria for shifting from automatic to deliberate control of motor actions. It is widely accepted that sophisticated motor repertoires have evolved in humans. Our results suggest that the deliberate monitoring of one's own motor kinematics may have evolved in the human lineage. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1985-01-01

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

An Improved Neutron Transport Algorithm for HZETRN2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaba, Tony

NASA's new space exploration initiative includes plans for long term human presence in space thereby placing new emphasis on space radiation analyses. In particular, a systematic effort of verification, validation and uncertainty quantification of the tools commonly used for radiation analysis for vehicle design and mission planning has begun. In this paper, the numerical error associated with energy discretization in HZETRN2006 is addressed; large errors in the low-energy portion of the neutron fluence spectrum are produced due to a numerical truncation error in the transport algorithm. It is shown that the truncation error results from the narrow energy domain of the neutron elastic spectral distributions, and that an extremely fine energy grid is required in order to adequately resolve the problem under the current formulation. Since adding a sufficient number of energy points will render the code computationally inefficient, we revisit the light-ion transport theory developed for HZETRN2006 and focus on neutron elastic interactions. The new approach that is developed numerically integrates with adequate resolution in the energy domain without affecting the run-time of the code and is easily incorporated into the current code. Efforts were also made to optimize the computational efficiency of the light-ion propagator; a brief discussion of the efforts is given along with run-time comparisons between the original and updated codes. Convergence testing is then completed by running the code for various environments and shielding materials with many different energy grids to ensure stability of the proposed method.

Preventable Medical Errors Driven Modeling of Medical Best Practice Guidance Systems.

PubMed

Ou, Andrew Y-Z; Jiang, Yu; Wu, Po-Liang; Sha, Lui; Berlin, Richard B

2017-01-01

In a medical environment such as Intensive Care Unit, there are many possible reasons to cause errors, and one important reason is the effect of human intellectual tasks. When designing an interactive healthcare system such as medical Cyber-Physical-Human Systems (CPHSystems), it is important to consider whether the system design can mitigate the errors caused by these tasks or not. In this paper, we first introduce five categories of generic intellectual tasks of humans, where tasks among each category may lead to potential medical errors. Then, we present an integrated modeling framework to model a medical CPHSystem and use UPPAAL as the foundation to integrate and verify the whole medical CPHSystem design models. With a verified and comprehensive model capturing the human intellectual tasks effects, we can design a more accurate and acceptable system. We use a cardiac arrest resuscitation guidance and navigation system (CAR-GNSystem) for such medical CPHSystem modeling. Experimental results show that the CPHSystem models help determine system design flaws and can mitigate the potential medical errors caused by the human intellectual tasks.

A manufacturing error measurement methodology for a rotary vector reducer cycloidal gear based on a gear measuring center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianxing; Zhou, Junxiang; Deng, Xiaozhong; Li, Jubo; Xing, Chunrong; Su, Jianxin; Wang, Huiliang

2018-07-01

A manufacturing error of a cycloidal gear is the key factor affecting the transmission accuracy of a robot rotary vector (RV) reducer. A methodology is proposed to realize the digitized measurement and data processing of the cycloidal gear manufacturing error based on the gear measuring center, which can quickly and accurately measure and evaluate the manufacturing error of the cycloidal gear by using both the whole tooth profile measurement and a single tooth profile measurement. By analyzing the particularity of the cycloidal profile and its effect on the actual meshing characteristics of the RV transmission, the cycloid profile measurement strategy is planned, and the theoretical profile model and error measurement model of cycloid-pin gear transmission are established. Through the digital processing technology, the theoretical trajectory of the probe and the normal vector of the measured point are calculated. By means of precision measurement principle and error compensation theory, a mathematical model for the accurate calculation and data processing of manufacturing error is constructed, and the actual manufacturing error of the cycloidal gear is obtained by the optimization iterative solution. Finally, the measurement experiment of the cycloidal gear tooth profile is carried out on the gear measuring center and the HEXAGON coordinate measuring machine, respectively. The measurement results verify the correctness and validity of the measurement theory and method. This methodology will provide the basis for the accurate evaluation and the effective control of manufacturing precision of the cycloidal gear in a robot RV reducer.

Effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies: Implications for correlations, ANOVA, linear regression, factor analysis, and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Salvendy, Gavriel

2009-05-01

This paper aims to demonstrate the effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies. A variety of sources can cause random measurement errors in ergonomics studies and these errors can distort virtually every statistic computed and lead investigators to erroneous conclusions. The effects of measurement errors on five most widely used statistical analysis tools have been discussed and illustrated: correlation; ANOVA; linear regression; factor analysis; linear discriminant analysis. It has been shown that measurement errors can greatly attenuate correlations between variables, reduce statistical power of ANOVA, distort (overestimate, underestimate or even change the sign of) regression coefficients, underrate the explanation contributions of the most important factors in factor analysis and depreciate the significance of discriminant function and discrimination abilities of individual variables in discrimination analysis. The discussions will be restricted to subjective scales and survey methods and their reliability estimates. Other methods applied in ergonomics research, such as physical and electrophysiological measurements and chemical and biomedical analysis methods, also have issues of measurement errors, but they are beyond the scope of this paper. As there has been increasing interest in the development and testing of theories in ergonomics research, it has become very important for ergonomics researchers to understand the effects of measurement errors on their experiment results, which the authors believe is very critical to research progress in theory development and cumulative knowledge in the ergonomics field.

Movement trajectory smoothness is not associated with the endpoint accuracy of rapid multi-joint arm movements in young and older adults

PubMed Central

Poston, Brach; Van Gemmert, Arend W.A.; Sharma, Siddharth; Chakrabarti, Somesh; Zavaremi, Shahrzad H.; Stelmach, George

2013-01-01

The minimum variance theory proposes that motor commands are corrupted by signal-dependent noise and smooth trajectories with low noise levels are selected to minimize endpoint error and endpoint variability. The purpose of the study was to determine the contribution of trajectory smoothness to the endpoint accuracy and endpoint variability of rapid multi-joint arm movements. Young and older adults performed arm movements (4 blocks of 25 trials) as fast and as accurately as possible to a target with the right (dominant) arm. Endpoint accuracy and endpoint variability along with trajectory smoothness and error were quantified for each block of trials. Endpoint error and endpoint variance were greater in older adults compared with young adults, but decreased at a similar rate with practice for the two age groups. The greater endpoint error and endpoint variance exhibited by older adults were primarily due to impairments in movement extent control and not movement direction control. The normalized jerk was similar for the two age groups, but was not strongly associated with endpoint error or endpoint variance for either group. However, endpoint variance was strongly associated with endpoint error for both the young and older adults. Finally, trajectory error was similar for both groups and was weakly associated with endpoint error for the older adults. The findings are not consistent with the predictions of the minimum variance theory, but support and extend previous observations that movement trajectories and endpoints are planned independently. PMID:23584101

Characterizing the impact of model error in hydrologic time series recovery inverse problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Scott K.; He, Jiachuan; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

Hydrologic models are commonly over-smoothed relative to reality, owing to computational limitations and to the difficulty of obtaining accurate high-resolution information. When used in an inversion context, such models may introduce systematic biases which cannot be encapsulated by an unbiased “observation noise” term of the type assumed by standard regularization theory and typical Bayesian formulations. Despite its importance, model error is difficult to encapsulate systematically and is often neglected. In this paper, model error is considered for an important class of inverse problems that includes interpretation of hydraulic transients and contaminant source history inference: reconstruction of a time series thatmore » has been convolved against a transfer function (i.e., impulse response) that is only approximately known. Using established harmonic theory along with two results established here regarding triangular Toeplitz matrices, upper and lower error bounds are derived for the effect of systematic model error on time series recovery for both well-determined and over-determined inverse problems. It is seen that use of additional measurement locations does not improve expected performance in the face of model error. A Monte Carlo study of a realistic hydraulic reconstruction problem is presented, and the lower error bound is seen informative about expected behavior. Finally, a possible diagnostic criterion for blind transfer function characterization is also uncovered.« less

Characterizing the impact of model error in hydrologic time series recovery inverse problems

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Scott K.; He, Jiachuan; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

2017-10-28

Hydrologic models are commonly over-smoothed relative to reality, owing to computational limitations and to the difficulty of obtaining accurate high-resolution information. When used in an inversion context, such models may introduce systematic biases which cannot be encapsulated by an unbiased “observation noise” term of the type assumed by standard regularization theory and typical Bayesian formulations. Despite its importance, model error is difficult to encapsulate systematically and is often neglected. In this paper, model error is considered for an important class of inverse problems that includes interpretation of hydraulic transients and contaminant source history inference: reconstruction of a time series thatmore » has been convolved against a transfer function (i.e., impulse response) that is only approximately known. Using established harmonic theory along with two results established here regarding triangular Toeplitz matrices, upper and lower error bounds are derived for the effect of systematic model error on time series recovery for both well-determined and over-determined inverse problems. It is seen that use of additional measurement locations does not improve expected performance in the face of model error. A Monte Carlo study of a realistic hydraulic reconstruction problem is presented, and the lower error bound is seen informative about expected behavior. Finally, a possible diagnostic criterion for blind transfer function characterization is also uncovered.« less

Orwell's Instructive Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Julian, Liam

2009-01-01

In this article, the author talks about George Orwell, his instructive errors, and the manner in which Orwell pierced worthless theory, faced facts and defended decency (with fluctuating success), and largely ignored the tradition of accumulated wisdom that has rendered him a timeless teacher--one whose inadvertent lessons, while infrequently…

Illusory Conjunctions: Does Inattention Really Matter?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Navon, David; Ehrlich, Baruch

1995-01-01

Results of a study with 48 Israeli college students cast doubt on feature integration theory. Subjects searching for a probe in an array of three stimuli in two attention conditions, attention being manipulated by a dual-task requirement, made more conjunction errors than feature errors. (SLD)

GY SAMPLING THEORY IN ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 2: SUBSAMPLING ERROR MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Sampling can be a significant source of error in the measurement process. The characterization and cleanup of hazardous waste sites require data that meet site-specific levels of acceptable quality if scientifically supportable decisions are to be made. In support of this effort,...

Error affect inoculation for a complex decision-making task.

PubMed

Tabernero, Carmen; Wood, Robert E

2009-05-01

Individuals bring knowledge, implicit theories, and goal orientations to group meetings. Group decisions arise out of the exchange of these orientations. This research explores how a trainee's exploratory and deliberate process (an incremental theory and learning goal orientation) impacts the effectiveness of individual and group decision-making processes. The effectiveness of this training program is compared with another program that included error affect inoculation (EAI). Subjects were 40 Spanish Policemen in a training course. They were distributed in two training conditions for an individual and group decision-making task. In one condition, individuals received the Self-Guided Exploration plus Deliberation Process instructions, which emphasised exploring the options and testing hypotheses. In the other condition, individuals also received instructions based on Error Affect Inoculation (EAI), which emphasised positive affective reactions to errors and mistakes when making decisions. Results show that the quality of decisions increases when the groups share their reasoning. The AIE intervention promotes sharing information, flexible initial viewpoints, and improving the quality of group decisions. Implications and future directions are discussed.

A neural theory of visual attention and short-term memory (NTVA).

PubMed

Bundesen, Claus; Habekost, Thomas; Kyllingsbæk, Søren

2011-05-01

The neural theory of visual attention and short-term memory (NTVA) proposed by Bundesen, Habekost, and Kyllingsbæk (2005) is reviewed. In NTVA, filtering (selection of objects) changes the number of cortical neurons in which an object is represented so that this number increases with the behavioural importance of the object. Another mechanism of selection, pigeonholing (selection of features), scales the level of activation in neurons coding for a particular feature. By these mechanisms, behaviourally important objects and features are likely to win the competition to become encoded into visual short-term memory (VSTM). The VSTM system is conceived as a feedback mechanism that sustains activity in the neurons that have won the attentional competition. NTVA accounts both for a wide range of attentional effects in human performance (reaction times and error rates) and a wide range of effects observed in firing rates of single cells in the primate visual system. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust Fault Detection for Aircraft Using Mixed Structured Singular Value Theory and Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, Emmanuel G.

2000-01-01

The purpose of fault detection is to identify when a fault or failure has occurred in a system such as an aircraft or expendable launch vehicle. The faults may occur in sensors, actuators, structural components, etc. One of the primary approaches to model-based fault detection relies on analytical redundancy. That is the output of a computer-based model (actually a state estimator) is compared with the sensor measurements of the actual system to determine when a fault has occurred. Unfortunately, the state estimator is based on an idealized mathematical description of the underlying plant that is never totally accurate. As a result of these modeling errors, false alarms can occur. This research uses mixed structured singular value theory, a relatively recent and powerful robustness analysis tool, to develop robust estimators and demonstrates the use of these estimators in fault detection. To allow qualitative human experience to be effectively incorporated into the detection process fuzzy logic is used to predict the seriousness of the fault that has occurred.

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

PubMed Central

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

Some current theories of probabilistic categorization assume that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report two probabilistic-categorization experiments that investigated error discounting by shifting feedback probabilities to new values after different amounts of training. In both experiments, responding gradually became less responsive to errors, and learning was slowed for some time after the feedback shift. Both results are indicative of error discounting. Quantitative modeling of the data revealed that adding a mechanism for error discounting significantly improved the fits of an exemplar-based and a rule-based associative learning model, as well as of a recency-based model of categorization. We conclude that error discounting is an important component of probabilistic learning. PMID:21355666

Modeling human tracking error in several different anti-tank systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinman, D. L.

1981-01-01

An optimal control model for generating time histories of human tracking errors in antitank systems is outlined. Monte Carlo simulations of human operator responses for three Army antitank systems are compared. System/manipulator dependent data comparisons reflecting human operator limitations in perceiving displayed quantities and executing intended control motions are presented. Motor noise parameters are also discussed.

A Reduced Dimension Static, Linearized Kalman Filter and Smoother

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.

1995-01-01

An approximate Kalman filter and smoother, based on approximations of the state estimation error covariance matrix, is described. Approximations include a reduction of the effective state dimension, use of a static asymptotic error limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. Examples of use come from TOPEX/POSEIDON.

Error Correcting Codes I. Applications of Elementary Algebra to Information Theory. Modules and Monographs in Undergraduate Mathematics and Its Applications Project. UMAP Unit 346.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rice, Bart F.; Wilde, Carroll O.

It is noted that with the prominence of computers in today's technological society, digital communication systems have become widely used in a variety of applications. Some of the problems that arise in digital communications systems are described. This unit presents the problem of correcting errors in such systems. Error correcting codes are…

Open quantum systems and error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani Barzegar, Alireza

Quantum effects can be harnessed to manipulate information in a desired way. Quantum systems which are designed for this purpose are suffering from harming interaction with their surrounding environment or inaccuracy in control forces. Engineering different methods to combat errors in quantum devices are highly demanding. In this thesis, I focus on realistic formulations of quantum error correction methods. A realistic formulation is the one that incorporates experimental challenges. This thesis is presented in two sections of open quantum system and quantum error correction. Chapters 2 and 3 cover the material on open quantum system theory. It is essential to first study a noise process then to contemplate methods to cancel its effect. In the second chapter, I present the non-completely positive formulation of quantum maps. Most of these results are published in [Shabani and Lidar, 2009b,a], except a subsection on geometric characterization of positivity domain of a quantum map. The real-time formulation of the dynamics is the topic of the third chapter. After introducing the concept of Markovian regime, A new post-Markovian quantum master equation is derived, published in [Shabani and Lidar, 2005a]. The section of quantum error correction is presented in three chapters of 4, 5, 6 and 7. In chapter 4, we introduce a generalized theory of decoherence-free subspaces and subsystems (DFSs), which do not require accurate initialization (published in [Shabani and Lidar, 2005b]). In Chapter 5, we present a semidefinite program optimization approach to quantum error correction that yields codes and recovery procedures that are robust against significant variations in the noise channel. Our approach allows us to optimize the encoding, recovery, or both, and is amenable to approximations that significantly improve computational cost while retaining fidelity (see [Kosut et al., 2008] for a published version). Chapter 6 is devoted to a theory of quantum error correction (QEC) that applies to any linear map, in particular maps that are not completely positive (CP). This is a complementary to the second chapter which is published in [Shabani and Lidar, 2007]. In the last chapter 7 before the conclusion, a formulation for evaluating the performance of quantum error correcting codes for a general error model is presented, also published in [Shabani, 2005]. In this formulation, the correlation between errors is quantified by a Hamiltonian description of the noise process. In particular, we consider Calderbank-Shor-Steane codes and observe a better performance in the presence of correlated errors depending on the timing of the error recovery.

An organizational approach to understanding patient safety and medical errors.

PubMed

Kaissi, Amer

2006-01-01

Progress in patient safety, or lack thereof, is a cause for great concern. In this article, we argue that the patient safety movement has failed to reach its goals of eradicating or, at least, significantly reducing errors because of an inappropriate focus on provider and patient-level factors with no real attention to the organizational factors that affect patient safety. We describe an organizational approach to patient safety using different organizational theory perspectives and make several propositions to push patient safety research and practice in a direction that is more likely to improve care processes and outcomes. From a Contingency Theory perspective, we suggest that health care organizations, in general, operate under a misfit between contingencies and structures. This misfit is mainly due to lack of flexibility, cost containment, and lack of regulations, thus explaining the high level of errors committed in these organizations. From an organizational culture perspective, we argue that health care organizations must change their assumptions, beliefs, values, and artifacts to change their culture from a culture of blame to a culture of safety and thus reduce medical errors. From an organizational learning perspective, we discuss how reporting, analyzing, and acting on error information can result in reduced errors in health care organizations.

[Using some modern mathematical models of postmortem cooling of the human body for the time of death determination].

PubMed

Vavilov, A Iu; Viter, V I

2007-01-01

Mathematical questions of data errors of modern thermometrical models of postmortem cooling of the human body are considered. The main diagnostic areas used for thermometry are analyzed to minimize these data errors. The authors propose practical recommendations to decrease data errors of determination of prescription of death coming.

Diagnostic decision-making and strategies to improve diagnosis.

PubMed

Thammasitboon, Satid; Cutrer, William B

2013-10-01

A significant portion of diagnostic errors arises through cognitive errors resulting from inadequate knowledge, faulty data gathering, and/or faulty verification. Experts estimate that 75% of diagnostic failures can be attributed to clinician diagnostic thinking failure. The cognitive processes that underlie diagnostic thinking of clinicians are complex and intriguing, and it is imperative that clinicians acquire explicit appreciation and application of different cognitive approaches to make decisions better. A dual-process model that unifies many theories of decision-making has emerged as a promising template for understanding how clinicians think and judge efficiently in a diagnostic reasoning process. The identification and implementation of strategies for decreasing or preventing such diagnostic errors has become a growing area of interest and research. Suggested strategies to decrease diagnostic error incidence include increasing clinician's clinical expertise and avoiding inherent cognitive errors to make decisions better. Implementing Interventions focused solely on avoiding errors may work effectively for patient safety issues such as medication errors. Addressing cognitive errors, however, requires equal effort on expanding the individual clinician's expertise. Providing cognitive support to clinicians for robust diagnostic decision-making serves as the final strategic target for decreasing diagnostic errors. Clinical guidelines and algorithms offer another method for streamlining decision-making and decreasing likelihood of cognitive diagnostic errors. Addressing cognitive processing errors is undeniably the most challenging task in reducing diagnostic errors. While many suggested approaches exist, they are mostly based on theories and sciences in cognitive psychology, decision-making, and education. The proposed interventions are primarily suggestions and very few of them have been tested in the actual practice settings. Collaborative research effort is required to effectively address cognitive processing errors. Researchers in various areas, including patient safety/quality improvement, decision-making, and problem solving, must work together to make medical diagnosis more reliable. © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Hinton train disaster.

PubMed

Smiley, A M

1990-10-01

In February of 1986 a head-on collision occurred between a freight train and a passenger train in western Canada killing 23 people and causing over $30 million of damage. A Commission of Inquiry appointed by the Canadian government concluded that human error was the major reason for the collision. This report discusses the factors contributing to the human error: mainly poor work-rest schedules, the monotonous nature of the train driving task, insufficient information about train movements, and the inadequate backup systems in case of human error.

A Conceptual Framework for Predicting Error in Complex Human-Machine Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Michael; Remington, Roger; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

We present a Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection Rules-Model Human Processor (GOMS-MHP) style model-based approach to the problem of predicting human habit capture errors. Habit captures occur when the model fails to allocate limited cognitive resources to retrieve task-relevant information from memory. Lacking the unretrieved information, decision mechanisms act in accordance with implicit default assumptions, resulting in error when relied upon assumptions prove incorrect. The model helps interface designers identify situations in which such failures are especially likely.

Working Memory Load Strengthens Reward Prediction Errors.

PubMed

Collins, Anne G E; Ciullo, Brittany; Frank, Michael J; Badre, David

2017-04-19

Reinforcement learning (RL) in simple instrumental tasks is usually modeled as a monolithic process in which reward prediction errors (RPEs) are used to update expected values of choice options. This modeling ignores the different contributions of different memory and decision-making systems thought to contribute even to simple learning. In an fMRI experiment, we investigated how working memory (WM) and incremental RL processes interact to guide human learning. WM load was manipulated by varying the number of stimuli to be learned across blocks. Behavioral results and computational modeling confirmed that learning was best explained as a mixture of two mechanisms: a fast, capacity-limited, and delay-sensitive WM process together with slower RL. Model-based analysis of fMRI data showed that striatum and lateral prefrontal cortex were sensitive to RPE, as shown previously, but, critically, these signals were reduced when the learning problem was within capacity of WM. The degree of this neural interaction related to individual differences in the use of WM to guide behavioral learning. These results indicate that the two systems do not process information independently, but rather interact during learning. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Reinforcement learning (RL) theory has been remarkably productive at improving our understanding of instrumental learning as well as dopaminergic and striatal network function across many mammalian species. However, this neural network is only one contributor to human learning and other mechanisms such as prefrontal cortex working memory also play a key role. Our results also show that these other players interact with the dopaminergic RL system, interfering with its key computation of reward prediction errors. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/374332-11$15.00/0.

Strength conditions for the elastic structures with a stress error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A. D.

2017-10-01

As is known, the constraints (strength conditions) for the safety factor of elastic structures and design details of a particular class, e.g. aviation structures are established, i.e. the safety factor values of such structures should be within the given range. It should be noted that the constraints are set for the safety factors corresponding to analytical (exact) solutions of elasticity problems represented for the structures. Developing the analytical solutions for most structures, especially irregular shape ones, is associated with great difficulties. Approximate approaches to solve the elasticity problems, e.g. the technical theories of deformation of homogeneous and composite plates, beams and shells, are widely used for a great number of structures. Technical theories based on the hypotheses give rise to approximate (technical) solutions with an irreducible error, with the exact value being difficult to be determined. In static calculations of the structural strength with a specified small range for the safety factors application of technical (by the Theory of Strength of Materials) solutions is difficult. However, there are some numerical methods for developing the approximate solutions of elasticity problems with arbitrarily small errors. In present paper, the adjusted reference (specified) strength conditions for the structural safety factor corresponding to approximate solution of the elasticity problem have been proposed. The stress error estimation is taken into account using the proposed strength conditions. It has been shown that, to fulfill the specified strength conditions for the safety factor of the given structure corresponding to an exact solution, the adjusted strength conditions for the structural safety factor corresponding to an approximate solution are required. The stress error estimation which is the basis for developing the adjusted strength conditions has been determined for the specified strength conditions. The adjusted strength conditions presented by allowable stresses are suggested. Adjusted strength conditions make it possible to determine the set of approximate solutions, whereby meeting the specified strength conditions. Some examples of the specified strength conditions to be satisfied using the technical (by the Theory of Strength of Materials) solutions and strength conditions have been given, as well as the examples of stress conditions to be satisfied using approximate solutions with a small error.

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Mathematical models for the synthesis and optimization of spiral bevel gear tooth surfaces. [for helicopter transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litvin, F. L.; Rahman, P.; Goldrich, R. N.

1982-01-01

The geometry of spiral bevel gears and to their rational design are studied. The nonconjugate tooth surfaces of spiral bevel gears are, in theory, replaced (or approximated) by conjugated tooth surfaces. These surfaces can be generated by two conical surfaces, and by a conical surface and a revolution. Although these conjugated tooth surfaces are simpler than the actual ones, the determination of their principal curvatures and directions is still a complicated problem. Therefore, a new approach, to the solution of these is proposed. Direct relationships between the principal curvatures and directions of the tool surface and those of the generated gear surface are obtained. With the aid of these analytical tools, the Hertzian contact problem for conjugate tooth surfaces can be solved. These results are useful in determining compressive load capacity and surface fatigue life of spiral bevel gears. A general theory of kinematical errors exerted by manufacturing and assembly errors is developed. This theory is used to determine the analytical relationship between gear misalignments and kinematical errors. This is important to the study of noise and vibration in geared systems.

A theory for predicting composite laminate warpage resulting from fabrication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1974-01-01

Linear laminate theory is used with the moment-curvature relationship to derive equations for predicting end deflections due to warpage without solving the coupled fourth-order partial differential equations of the plate. Composite micro- and macrohyphenmechanics are used with laminate theory to assess the contribution of factors such as ply misorientation, fiber migration, and fiber and/or void volume ratio nonuniformity on the laminate warpage. Using these equations, it was found that a 1 deg error in the orientation angle of one ply was sufficient to produce warpage end deflection equal to two laminate thicknesses in a 10 inch by 10 inch laminate made from 8 ply Mod-I/epoxy. Using a sensitivity analysis on the governing parameters, it was found that a 3 deg fiber migration or a void volume ratio of three percent in some plies is sufficient to produce laminate warpage corner deflection equal to several laminate thicknesses. Tabular and graphical data are presented which can be used to identify possible errors contributing to laminate warpage and/or to obtain an a priori assessment when unavoidable errors during fabrication are anticipated.

A Short History of Probability Theory and Its Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Debnath, Lokenath; Basu, Kanadpriya

2015-01-01

This paper deals with a brief history of probability theory and its applications to Jacob Bernoulli's famous law of large numbers and theory of errors in observations or measurements. Included are the major contributions of Jacob Bernoulli and Laplace. It is written to pay the tricentennial tribute to Jacob Bernoulli, since the year 2013…

Examination of Different Item Response Theory Models on Tests Composed of Testlets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kogar, Esin Yilmaz; Kelecioglu, Hülya

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research is to first estimate the item and ability parameters and the standard error values related to those parameters obtained from Unidimensional Item Response Theory (UIRT), bifactor (BIF) and Testlet Response Theory models (TRT) in the tests including testlets, when the number of testlets, number of independent items, and…

Teaching Common Errors in Applying a Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcone, Stephen; Reigeluth, Charles M.

1988-01-01

Discusses study that investigated whether or not the teaching of matched examples and nonexamples in the form of common errors could improve student performance in undergraduate music theory courses. Highlights include hypotheses tested, pretests and posttests, and suggestions for further research with different age groups. (19 references)…

Nature of the refractive errors in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) with experimentally induced ametropias.

PubMed

Qiao-Grider, Ying; Hung, Li-Fang; Kee, Chea-Su; Ramamirtham, Ramkumar; Smith, Earl L

2010-08-23

We analyzed the contribution of individual ocular components to vision-induced ametropias in 210 rhesus monkeys. The primary contribution to refractive-error development came from vitreous chamber depth; a minor contribution from corneal power was also detected. However, there was no systematic relationship between refractive error and anterior chamber depth or between refractive error and any crystalline lens parameter. Our results are in good agreement with previous studies in humans, suggesting that the refractive errors commonly observed in humans are created by vision-dependent mechanisms that are similar to those operating in monkeys. This concordance emphasizes the applicability of rhesus monkeys in refractive-error studies. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nature of the Refractive Errors in Rhesus Monkeys (Macaca mulatta) with Experimentally Induced Ametropias

PubMed Central

Qiao-Grider, Ying; Hung, Li-Fang; Kee, Chea-su; Ramamirtham, Ramkumar; Smith, Earl L.

2010-01-01

We analyzed the contribution of individual ocular components to vision-induced ametropias in 210 rhesus monkeys. The primary contribution to refractive-error development came from vitreous chamber depth; a minor contribution from corneal power was also detected. However, there was no systematic relationship between refractive error and anterior chamber depth or between refractive error and any crystalline lens parameter. Our results are in good agreement with previous studies in humans, suggesting that the refractive errors commonly observed in humans are created by vision-dependent mechanisms that are similar to those operating in monkeys. This concordance emphasizes the applicability of rhesus monkeys in refractive-error studies. PMID:20600237

Impedance modulation and feedback corrections in tracking targets of variable size and frequency.

PubMed

Selen, Luc P J; van Dieën, Jaap H; Beek, Peter J

2006-11-01

Humans are able to adjust the accuracy of their movements to the demands posed by the task at hand. The variability in task execution caused by the inherent noisiness of the neuromuscular system can be tuned to task demands by both feedforward (e.g., impedance modulation) and feedback mechanisms. In this experiment, we studied both mechanisms, using mechanical perturbations to estimate stiffness and damping as indices of impedance modulation and submovement scaling as an index of feedback driven corrections. Eight subjects tracked three differently sized targets (0.0135, 0.0270, and 0.0405 rad) moving at three different frequencies (0.20, 0.25, and 0.33 Hz). Movement variability decreased with both decreasing target size and movement frequency, whereas stiffness and damping increased with decreasing target size, independent of movement frequency. These results are consistent with the theory that mechanical impedance acts as a filter of noisy neuromuscular signals but challenge stochastic theories of motor control that do not account for impedance modulation and only partially for feedback control. Submovements during unperturbed cycles were quantified in terms of their gain, i.e., the slope between their duration and amplitude in the speed profile. Submovement gain decreased with decreasing movement frequency and increasing target size. The results were interpreted to imply that submovement gain is related to observed tracking errors and that those tracking errors are expressed in units of target size. We conclude that impedance and submovement gain modulation contribute additively to tracking accuracy.

Sum-rule corrections: a route to error cancellations in correlation matrix renormalisation theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Liu, J.; Yao, Y. X.; Wang, C. Z.; Ho, K. M.

2017-03-01

We recently proposed the correlation matrix renormalisation (CMR) theory to efficiently and accurately calculate ground state total energy of molecular systems, based on the Gutzwiller variational wavefunction (GWF) to treat the electronic correlation effects. To help reduce numerical complications and better adapt the CMR to infinite lattice systems, we need to further refine the way to minimise the error originated from the approximations in the theory. This conference proceeding reports our recent progress on this key issue, namely, we obtained a simple analytical functional form for the one-electron renormalisation factors, and introduced a novel sum-rule correction for a more accurate description of the intersite electron correlations. Benchmark calculations are performed on a set of molecules to show the reasonable accuracy of the method.

Curious Cases of the Enzymes.

PubMed

Ulusu, Nuriye Nuray

2015-07-01

Life as we know it heavily relies on biological catalysis, in fact, in a very nonromantic version of it, life could be considered as a series of chemical reactions, regulated by the guarding principles of thermodynamics. In ancient times, a beating heart was a good sign of vitality, however, to me, it is actually the presence of active enzymes that counts… Though we do not usually pay attention, the history of enzymology is as old as humanity itself, and dates back to the ancient times. This paper is dedicated to these early moments of this remarkable science that touched our lives in the past and will make life a lot more efficient for humanity in the future. There was almost always a delicate, fundamentally essential relationship between mankind and the enzymes. Challenged by a very alien and hostile Nature full of predators, prehistoric men soon discovered the medicinal properties of the plants, through trial and error. In fact, they accidently discovered the enzyme inhibitors and thus, in crude terms, kindled a sparkling area of research. These plant-derivatives that acted as enzyme inhibitors helped prehistoric men in their pursuit of survival and protection from predators; in hunting and fishing… Later in history, while the underlying purposes of survival and increasing the quality of life stayed intact, the ways and means of enzymology experienced a massive transformation, as the 'trial and error' methodology of the ancients is now replaced with rational scientific theories.

Phenotypic Graphs and Evolution Unfold the Standard Genetic Code as the Optimal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamudio, Gabriel S.; José, Marco V.

2018-03-01

In this work, we explicitly consider the evolution of the Standard Genetic Code (SGC) by assuming two evolutionary stages, to wit, the primeval RNY code and two intermediate codes in between. We used network theory and graph theory to measure the connectivity of each phenotypic graph. The connectivity values are compared to the values of the codes under different randomization scenarios. An error-correcting optimal code is one in which the algebraic connectivity is minimized. We show that the SGC is optimal in regard to its robustness and error-tolerance when compared to all random codes under different assumptions.

A contribution to the calculation of measurement uncertainty and optimization of measuring strategies in coordinate measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waeldele, F.

1983-01-01

The influence of sample shape deviations on the measurement uncertainties and the optimization of computer aided coordinate measurement were investigated for a circle and a cylinder. Using the complete error propagation law in matrix form the parameter uncertainties are calculated, taking the correlation between the measurement points into account. Theoretical investigations show that the measuring points have to be equidistantly distributed and that for a cylindrical body a measuring point distribution along a cross section is better than along a helical line. The theoretically obtained expressions to calculate the uncertainties prove to be a good estimation basis. The simple error theory is not satisfactory for estimation. The complete statistical data analysis theory helps to avoid aggravating measurement errors and to adjust the number of measuring points to the required measuring uncertainty.

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

2016-09-01

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

Textbook Error: Short Circuiting on Electrochemical Cell

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonicamp, Judith M.; Clark, Roy W.

2007-01-01

Short circuiting an electrochemical cell is an unreported but persistent error in the electrochemistry textbooks. It is suggested that diagrams depicting a cell delivering usable current to a load be postponed, the theory of open-circuit galvanic cells is explained, the voltages from the tables of standard reduction potentials is calculated and…

Propeller thrust analysis using Prandtl's lifting line theory, a comparison between the experimental thrust and the thrust predicted by Prandtl's lifting line theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesler, Steven R.

The lifting line theory was first developed by Prandtl and was used primarily on analysis of airplane wings. Though the theory is about one hundred years old, it is still used in the initial calculations to find the lift of a wing. The question that guided this thesis was, "How close does Prandtl's lifting line theory predict the thrust of a propeller?" In order to answer this question, an experiment was designed that measured the thrust of a propeller for different speeds. The measured thrust was compared to what the theory predicted. In order to do this experiment and analysis, a propeller needed to be used. A walnut wood ultralight propeller was chosen that had a 1.30 meter (51 inches) length from tip to tip. In this thesis, Prandtl's lifting line theory was modified to account for the different incoming velocity depending on the radial position of the airfoil. A modified equation was used to reflect these differences. A working code was developed based on this modified equation. A testing rig was built that allowed the propeller to be rotated at high speeds while measuring the thrust. During testing, the rotational speed of the propeller ranged from 13-43 rotations per second. The thrust from the propeller was measured at different speeds and ranged from 16-33 Newton's. The test data were then compared to the theoretical results obtained from the lifting line code. A plot in Chapter 5 (the results section) shows the theoretical vs. actual thrust for different rotational speeds. The theory over predicted the actual thrust of the propeller. Depending on the rotational speed, the error was: at low speeds 36%, at low to moderate speeds 84%, and at high speeds the error increased to 195%. Different reasons for these errors are discussed.

Compressive sensing of signals generated in plastic scintillators in a novel J-PET instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raczyński, L.; Moskal, P.; Kowalski, P.; Wiślicki, W.; Bednarski, T.; Białas, P.; Czerwiński, E.; Gajos, A.; Kapłon, Ł.; Kochanowski, A.; Korcyl, G.; Kowal, J.; Kozik, T.; Krzemień, W.; Kubicz, E.; Niedźwiecki, Sz.; Pałka, M.; Rudy, Z.; Rundel, O.; Salabura, P.; Sharma, N. G.; Silarski, M.; Słomski, A.; Smyrski, J.; Strzelecki, A.; Wieczorek, A.; Zieliński, M.; Zoń, N.

2015-06-01

The J-PET scanner, which allows for single bed imaging of the whole human body, is currently under development at the Jagiellonian University. The discussed detector offers improvement of the Time of Flight (TOF) resolution due to the use of fast plastic scintillators and dedicated electronics allowing for sampling in the voltage domain of signals with durations of few nanoseconds. In this paper we show that recovery of the whole signal, based on only a few samples, is possible. In order to do that, we incorporate the training signals into the Tikhonov regularization framework and we perform the Principal Component Analysis decomposition, which is well known for its compaction properties. The method yields a simple closed form analytical solution that does not require iterative processing. Moreover, from the Bayes theory the properties of regularized solution, especially its covariance matrix, may be easily derived. This is the key to introduce and prove the formula for calculations of the signal recovery error. In this paper we show that an average recovery error is approximately inversely proportional to the number of acquired samples.

Reducing cognitive skill decay and diagnostic error: theory-based practices for continuing education in health care.

PubMed

Weaver, Sallie J; Newman-Toker, David E; Rosen, Michael A

2012-01-01

Missed, delayed, or wrong diagnoses can have a severe impact on patients, providers, and the entire health care system. One mechanism implicated in such diagnostic errors is the deterioration of cognitive diagnostic skills that are used rarely or not at all over a prolonged period of time. Existing evidence regarding maintenance of effective cognitive reasoning skills in the clinical education, organizational training, and human factors literatures suggest that continuing education plays a critical role in mitigating and managing diagnostic skill decay. Recent models also underscore the role of system level factors (eg, cognitive decision support tools, just-in-time training opportunities) in supporting clinical reasoning process. The purpose of this manuscript is to offer a multidisciplinary review of cognitive models of clinical decision making skills in order to provide a list of best practices for supporting continuous improvement and maintenance of cognitive diagnostic processes through continuing education. Copyright © 2012 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on CME, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

Investigation on coupling error characteristics in angular rate matching based ship deformation measurement approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shuai; Wu, Wei; Wang, Xingshu; Xu, Zhiguang

2018-01-01

The coupling error in the measurement of ship hull deformation can significantly influence the attitude accuracy of the shipborne weapons and equipments. It is therefore important to study the characteristics of the coupling error. In this paper, an comprehensive investigation on the coupling error is reported, which has a potential of deducting the coupling error in the future. Firstly, the causes and characteristics of the coupling error are analyzed theoretically based on the basic theory of measuring ship deformation. Then, simulations are conducted for verifying the correctness of the theoretical analysis. Simulation results show that the cross-correlation between dynamic flexure and ship angular motion leads to the coupling error in measuring ship deformation, and coupling error increases with the correlation value between them. All the simulation results coincide with the theoretical analysis.

Simultaneous Control of Error Rates in fMRI Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Kang, Hakmook; Blume, Jeffrey; Ombao, Hernando; Badre, David

2015-01-01

The key idea of statistical hypothesis testing is to fix, and thereby control, the Type I error (false positive) rate across samples of any size. Multiple comparisons inflate the global (family-wise) Type I error rate and the traditional solution to maintaining control of the error rate is to increase the local (comparison-wise) Type II error (false negative) rates. However, in the analysis of human brain imaging data, the number of comparisons is so large that this solution breaks down: the local Type II error rate ends up being so large that scientifically meaningful analysis is precluded. Here we propose a novel solution to this problem: allow the Type I error rate to converge to zero along with the Type II error rate. It works because when the Type I error rate per comparison is very small, the accumulation (or global) Type I error rate is also small. This solution is achieved by employing the Likelihood paradigm, which uses likelihood ratios to measure the strength of evidence on a voxel-by-voxel basis. In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical justification for a likelihood approach to the analysis of human brain imaging data. In addition, we present extensive simulations that show the likelihood approach is viable, leading to ‘cleaner’ looking brain maps and operationally superiority (lower average error rate). Finally, we include a case study on cognitive control related activation in the prefrontal cortex of the human brain. PMID:26272730

Comment on ''Theory of collisions between an atom and a diatomic molecule in the body-fixed coordinate system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schatz, G.C.; Kuppermann, A.

1979-03-15

It is shown that the phase factor i/sup J+j+l/ omitted in a theory of atom-diatom monreactive scattering formulated by Schatz and Kupperman but included in the Choi, Poe, and Tang theory does not lead to errors in the analysis of te (H,H/sub 2/) system.

Human error and the search for blame

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denning, Peter J.

1989-01-01

Human error is a frequent topic in discussions about risks in using computer systems. A rational analysis of human error leads through the consideration of mistakes to standards that designers use to avoid mistakes that lead to known breakdowns. The irrational side, however, is more interesting. It conditions people to think that breakdowns are inherently wrong and that there is ultimately someone who is responsible. This leads to a search for someone to blame which diverts attention from: learning from the mistakes; seeing the limitations of current engineering methodology; and improving the discourse of design.

Why does MP2 work?

PubMed

Fink, Reinhold F

2016-11-14

We show analytically and numerically that the performance of second order Møller-Plesset (MP) perturbation theory (PT), coupled-cluster (CC) theory, and other perturbation theory approaches can be rationalized by analyzing the wavefunctions of these methods. While rather large deviations for the individual contributions of configurations to the electron correlation energy are found for MP wavefunctions, they profit from an advantageous and robust error cancellation: The absolute contribution to the correlation energy is generally underestimated for the critical excitations with small energy denominators and all other doubly excited configurations where the two excited electrons are coupled to a singlet. This is balanced by an overestimation of the contribution of triplet-coupled double excitations to the correlation energy. The even better performance of spin-component-scaled-MP2 theory is explained by a similar error compensation effect. The wavefunction analysis for the lowest singlet states of H 2 O, CH 2 , CO, and Cu + shows the predicted trends for MP methods, rapid but biased convergence of CC theory as well as the substantial potential of linearized CC, or retaining the excitation-degree (RE)-PT.

Words from spontaneous conversational speech can be recognized with human-like accuracy by an error-driven learning algorithm that discriminates between meanings straight from smart acoustic features, bypassing the phoneme as recognition unit.

PubMed

Arnold, Denis; Tomaschek, Fabian; Sering, Konstantin; Lopez, Florence; Baayen, R Harald

2017-01-01

Sound units play a pivotal role in cognitive models of auditory comprehension. The general consensus is that during perception listeners break down speech into auditory words and subsequently phones. Indeed, cognitive speech recognition is typically taken to be computationally intractable without phones. Here we present a computational model trained on 20 hours of conversational speech that recognizes word meanings within the range of human performance (model 25%, native speakers 20-44%), without making use of phone or word form representations. Our model also generates successfully predictions about the speed and accuracy of human auditory comprehension. At the heart of the model is a 'wide' yet sparse two-layer artificial neural network with some hundred thousand input units representing summaries of changes in acoustic frequency bands, and proxies for lexical meanings as output units. We believe that our model holds promise for resolving longstanding theoretical problems surrounding the notion of the phone in linguistic theory.

Computer-assisted design and synthesis of molecularly imprinted polymers for selective extraction of acetazolamide from human plasma prior to its voltammetric determination.

PubMed

Khodadadian, Mehdi; Ahmadi, Farhad

2010-06-15

Molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) were computationally designed and synthesized for the selective extraction of a carbonic anhydrase inhibitor, i.e. acetazolamide (ACZ), from human plasma. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations were performed to study the intermolecular interactions in the pre-polymerization mixture and to find a suitable functional monomer in MIP preparation. The interaction energies were corrected for the basis set superposition error (BSSE) using the counterpoise (CP) correction. The polymerization solvent was simulated by means of polarizable continuum model (PCM). It was found that acrylamide (AAM) is the best candidate to prepare MIPs. To confirm the results of theoretical calculations, three MIPs were synthesized with different functional monomers and evaluated using Langmuir-Freundlich (LF) isotherm. The results indicated that the most homogeneous MIP with the highest number of binding sites is the MIP prepared by AAM. This polymer was then used as a selective adsorbent to develop a molecularly imprinted solid-phase extraction procedure followed by differential pulse voltammetry (MISPE-DPV) for clean-up and determination of ACZ in human plasma.

Medication errors: definitions and classification

PubMed Central

Aronson, Jeffrey K

2009-01-01

To understand medication errors and to identify preventive strategies, we need to classify them and define the terms that describe them. The four main approaches to defining technical terms consider etymology, usage, previous definitions, and the Ramsey–Lewis method (based on an understanding of theory and practice). A medication error is ‘a failure in the treatment process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient’. Prescribing faults, a subset of medication errors, should be distinguished from prescription errors. A prescribing fault is ‘a failure in the prescribing [decision-making] process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient’. The converse of this, ‘balanced prescribing’ is ‘the use of a medicine that is appropriate to the patient's condition and, within the limits created by the uncertainty that attends therapeutic decisions, in a dosage regimen that optimizes the balance of benefit to harm’. This excludes all forms of prescribing faults, such as irrational, inappropriate, and ineffective prescribing, underprescribing and overprescribing. A prescription error is ‘a failure in the prescription writing process that results in a wrong instruction about one or more of the normal features of a prescription’. The ‘normal features’ include the identity of the recipient, the identity of the drug, the formulation, dose, route, timing, frequency, and duration of administration. Medication errors can be classified, invoking psychological theory, as knowledge-based mistakes, rule-based mistakes, action-based slips, and memory-based lapses. This classification informs preventive strategies. PMID:19594526

Why do adult dogs (Canis familiaris) commit the A-not-B search error?

PubMed

Sümegi, Zsófia; Kis, Anna; Miklósi, Ádám; Topál, József

2014-02-01

It has been recently reported that adult domestic dogs, like human infants, tend to commit perseverative search errors; that is, they select the previously rewarded empty location in Piagetian A-not-B search task because of the experimenter's ostensive communicative cues. There is, however, an ongoing debate over whether these findings reveal that dogs can use the human ostensive referential communication as a source of information or the phenomenon can be accounted for by "more simple" explanations like insufficient attention and learning based on local enhancement. In 2 experiments the authors systematically manipulated the type of human cueing (communicative or noncommunicative) adjacent to the A hiding place during both the A and B trials. Results highlight 3 important aspects of the dogs' A-not-B error: (a) search errors are influenced to a certain extent by dogs' motivation to retrieve the toy object; (b) human communicative and noncommunicative signals have different error-inducing effects; and (3) communicative signals presented at the A hiding place during the B trials but not during the A trials play a crucial role in inducing the A-not-B error and it can be induced even without demonstrating repeated hiding events at location A. These findings further confirm the notion that perseverative search error, at least partially, reflects a "ready-to-obey" attitude in the dog rather than insufficient attention and/or working memory.

Balancing the books - a statistical theory of prospective budgets in Earth System science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Kane, J. Philip

An honest declaration of the error in a mass, momentum or energy balance, ɛ, simply raises the question of its acceptability: "At what value of ɛ is the attempted balance to be rejected?" Answering this question requires a reference quantity against which to compare ɛ. This quantity must be a mathematical function of all the data used in making the balance. To deliver this function, a theory grounded in a workable definition of acceptability is essential. A distinction must be drawn between a retrospective balance and a prospective budget in relation to any natural space-filling body. Balances look to the past; budgets look to the future. The theory is built on the application of classical sampling theory to the measurement and closure of a prospective budget. It satisfies R.A. Fisher's "vital requirement that the actual and physical conduct of experiments should govern the statistical procedure of their interpretation". It provides a test, which rejects, or fails to reject, the hypothesis that the closing error on the budget, when realised, was due to sampling error only. By increasing the number of measurements, the discrimination of the test can be improved, controlling both the precision and accuracy of the budget and its components. The cost-effective design of such measurement campaigns is discussed briefly. This analysis may also show when campaigns to close a budget on a particular space-filling body are not worth the effort for either scientific or economic reasons. Other approaches, such as those based on stochastic processes, lack this finality, because they fail to distinguish between different types of error in the mismatch between a set of realisations of the process and the measured data.

Common medial frontal mechanisms of adaptive control in humans and rodents

PubMed Central

Frank, Michael J.; Laubach, Mark

2013-01-01

In this report, we describe how common brain networks within the medial frontal cortex facilitate adaptive behavioral control in rodents and humans. We demonstrate that low frequency oscillations below 12 Hz are dramatically modulated after errors in humans over mid-frontal cortex and in rats within prelimbic and anterior cingulate regions of medial frontal cortex. These oscillations were phase-locked between medial frontal cortex and motor areas in both rats and humans. In rats, single neurons that encoded prior behavioral outcomes were phase-coherent with low-frequency field oscillations particularly after errors. Inactivating medial frontal regions in rats led to impaired behavioral adjustments after errors, eliminated the differential expression of low frequency oscillations after errors, and increased low-frequency spike-field coupling within motor cortex. Our results describe a novel mechanism for behavioral adaptation via low-frequency oscillations and elucidate how medial frontal networks synchronize brain activity to guide performance. PMID:24141310

#2 - An Empirical Assessment of Exposure Measurement Error ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background• Differing degrees of exposure error acrosspollutants• Previous focus on quantifying and accounting forexposure error in single-pollutant models• Examine exposure errors for multiple pollutantsand provide insights on the potential for bias andattenuation of effect estimates in single and bipollutantepidemiological models The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD research program supports Goal 1 (Clean Air) and Goal 4 (Healthy People) of EPA strategic plan. More specifically, our division conducts research to characterize the movement of pollutants from the source to contact with humans. Our multidisciplinary research program produces Methods, Measurements, and Models to identify relationships between and characterize processes that link source emissions, environmental concentrations, human exposures, and target-tissue dose. The impact of these tools is improved regulatory programs and policies for EPA.

Estimating the Imputed Social Cost of Errors of Measurement.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

social cost of an error of measurement in the score on a unidimensional test, an asymptotic method, based on item response theory, is developed for...11111111 ij MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS-1963-A.5. ,,, I v.P I RR-83-33-ONR 4ESTIMATING THE IMPUTED SOCIAL COST S OF... SOCIAL COST OF ERRORS OF MEASUREMENT Frederic M. Lord This research was sponsored in part by the Personnel and Training Research Programs Psychological

Cutting the Cord: Discrimination and Command Responsibility in Autonomous Lethal Weapons

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-13

machine responses to identical stimuli, and it was the job of a third party human “witness” to determine which participant was man and which was...machines may be error free, but there are potential benefits to be gained through autonomy if machines can meet or exceed human performance in...lieu of human operators and reap the benefits that autonomy provides. Human and Machine Error It would be foolish to assert that either humans

A philosophical theory on human communication and modern physics: e(,2)c(,2)H('2)T energy-exchange and consciousness-change toward humanism, healing, and transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins-Tate, Marnishia Laverne

This dissertation addresses the need for a body of human communication theory that can be useful toward advancing personal and social transformation. Of the humanistic genre, it suggests that there is a need to promote humanism, healing, and personal transformation in the non-clinical settings of everyday living. Three questions guide the effort. First, it asks: what kind of human communication theory might describe some of the underlying dynamics of human interaction, while also suggesting ways to improve the quality of interactions of any related philosophical theory be grounded by some scientific discipline? Then finally, it asks: how might these proposed concepts be captured in a manner that can be useful to human beings in everyday human interaction? Extending the work of modern physics to the realm of human communication, the theory integrates conceptual aspects of quantum theory, relativity theory, communication accommodation theory, and various nonverbal communication theory. Then, it proposes the philosophical framework for a new body of theory which it calls the energy-exchange theory of human communication. Treating human beings as living forms of matter, it suggests that ``energy'' is the life-force that sustains all human beings, and that ``consciousness'' is that qualitative level of development at which energy manifests itself in the human experience. It proposes that human beings have the capacity to exchange energy and influence consciousness during the human communication process, and that these interactions can advance humanism, healing, and transformation-which it proposes are the higher states and levels of human consciousness. Thus, this research effort sought to know and to describe a phenomenon that is the interactive human being; and to suggest useful ways that this volitional being can know and transform itself through human interaction. With verisimilitude as a driving factor in describing human beings as communicators, the research is ontology- centered. It suggests that human beings are most notably creatures of feeling and soul, and that it is through interaction involving these dimensions that one can best come to know the human being. Accordingly, the research employs a hermeneutic phenomenological approach toward participative inquiry and experiential knowing. With practicality as a driving factor in suggesting ways that the human phenomenon can know and transform itself, this work utilizes a pragmatic approach to theory- building. Pragmatism suggests that all theories are approximations that ultimately should be judged on their abilities to truthfully describe phenomena and to solve human problems. Thus, having undergone an inductive progression from data to theory-building, now this work must go from theory to data, such that next steps should involve formal assessment of its verisimilitude and pragmatism based on feedback gained through field research on various persons who may apply the theory and its model to everyday living. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Social Errors in Four Cultures: Evidence about Universal Forms of Social Relations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiske, Alan Page

1993-01-01

To test the cross-cultural generality of relational-models theory, 4 studies with 70 adults examined social errors of substitution of persons for Bengali, Korean, Chinese, and Vai (Liberia and Sierra Leone) subjects. In all four cultures, people tend to substitute someone with whom they have the same basic relationship. (SLD)

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

An Application of Multivariate Generalizability in Selection of Mathematically Gifted Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Sungyeun; Berebitsky, Dan

2016-01-01

This study investigates error sources and the effects of each error source to determine optimal weights of the composite score of teacher recommendation letters and self-introduction letters using multivariate generalizability theory. Data were collected from the science education institute for the gifted attached to the university located within…

Quality Control of an OSCE Using Generalizability Theory and Many-Faceted Rasch Measurement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iramaneerat, Cherdsak; Yudkowsky, Rachel; Myford, Carol M.; Downing, Steven M.

2008-01-01

An Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) is an effective method for evaluating competencies. However, scores obtained from an OSCE are vulnerable to many potential measurement errors that cases, items, or standardized patients (SPs) can introduce. Monitoring these sources of errors is an important quality control mechanism to ensure…

Human error identification for laparoscopic surgery: Development of a motion economy perspective.

PubMed

Al-Hakim, Latif; Sevdalis, Nick; Maiping, Tanaphon; Watanachote, Damrongpan; Sengupta, Shomik; Dissaranan, Charuspong

2015-09-01

This study postulates that traditional human error identification techniques fail to consider motion economy principles and, accordingly, their applicability in operating theatres may be limited. This study addresses this gap in the literature with a dual aim. First, it identifies the principles of motion economy that suit the operative environment and second, it develops a new error mode taxonomy for human error identification techniques which recognises motion economy deficiencies affecting the performance of surgeons and predisposing them to errors. A total of 30 principles of motion economy were developed and categorised into five areas. A hierarchical task analysis was used to break down main tasks of a urological laparoscopic surgery (hand-assisted laparoscopic nephrectomy) to their elements and the new taxonomy was used to identify errors and their root causes resulting from violation of motion economy principles. The approach was prospectively tested in 12 observed laparoscopic surgeries performed by 5 experienced surgeons. A total of 86 errors were identified and linked to the motion economy deficiencies. Results indicate the developed methodology is promising. Our methodology allows error prevention in surgery and the developed set of motion economy principles could be useful for training surgeons on motion economy principles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Sum-rule corrections: A route to error cancellations in correlation matrix renormalisation theory

DOE PAGES

Liu, C.; Liu, J.; Yao, Y. X.; ...

2017-01-16

Here, we recently proposed the correlation matrix renormalisation (CMR) theory to efficiently and accurately calculate ground state total energy of molecular systems, based on the Gutzwiller variational wavefunction (GWF) to treat the electronic correlation effects. To help reduce numerical complications and better adapt the CMR to infinite lattice systems, we need to further refine the way to minimise the error originated from the approximations in the theory. This conference proceeding reports our recent progress on this key issue, namely, we obtained a simple analytical functional form for the one-electron renormalisation factors, and introduced a novel sum-rule correction for a moremore » accurate description of the intersite electron correlations. Benchmark calculations are performed on a set of molecules to show the reasonable accuracy of the method.« less

Sum-rule corrections: A route to error cancellations in correlation matrix renormalisation theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, C.; Liu, J.; Yao, Y. X.

Here, we recently proposed the correlation matrix renormalisation (CMR) theory to efficiently and accurately calculate ground state total energy of molecular systems, based on the Gutzwiller variational wavefunction (GWF) to treat the electronic correlation effects. To help reduce numerical complications and better adapt the CMR to infinite lattice systems, we need to further refine the way to minimise the error originated from the approximations in the theory. This conference proceeding reports our recent progress on this key issue, namely, we obtained a simple analytical functional form for the one-electron renormalisation factors, and introduced a novel sum-rule correction for a moremore » accurate description of the intersite electron correlations. Benchmark calculations are performed on a set of molecules to show the reasonable accuracy of the method.« less

Verification of floating-point software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoover, Doug N.

1990-01-01

Floating point computation presents a number of problems for formal verification. Should one treat the actual details of floating point operations, or accept them as imprecisely defined, or should one ignore round-off error altogether and behave as if floating point operations are perfectly accurate. There is the further problem that a numerical algorithm usually only approximately computes some mathematical function, and we often do not know just how good the approximation is, even in the absence of round-off error. ORA has developed a theory of asymptotic correctness which allows one to verify floating point software with a minimum entanglement in these problems. This theory and its implementation in the Ariel C verification system are described. The theory is illustrated using a simple program which finds a zero of a given function by bisection. This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

Fresnel diffraction by spherical obstacles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hovenac, Edward A.

1989-01-01

Lommel functions were used to solve the Fresnel-Kirchhoff diffraction integral for the case of a spherical obstacle. Comparisons were made between Fresnel diffraction theory and Mie scattering theory. Fresnel theory is then compared to experimental data. Experiment and theory typically deviated from one another by less than 10 percent. A unique experimental setup using mercury spheres suspended in a viscous fluid significantly reduced optical noise. The major source of error was due to the Gaussian-shaped laser beam.

Aviation accidents and the theory of the situation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolman, L.

1980-01-01

Social-psychological factors effecting the performance of flight crews are examined. In particular, a crew member's perceptual-psychological constructs of the flight situation (theories of the situation) are discussed. The skills and willingness of a flight crew to be alert to possible errors in the theory become critical to their effectiveness and their ability to ensure a safe flight. Several major factors that determine the likelihood that a faulty theory will be detected and revised are identified.

Using the theory of small perturbations in performance calculations of the RBMK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Isaev, N.V.; Druzhinin, V.E.; Pogosbekyan, L.R.

The theory of small perturbations in reactor physics is discussed and applied to two-dimensional calculations of the RBMK. The classical theory of small perturbations implies considerable errors in calculations because the perturbations cannot be considered small. The modified theory of small perturbations presented here can be used in atomic power stations for determining reactivity effects and reloading rates of channels in reactors and also for assessing the reactivity storage in control rods.

A hybrid wavelet analysis-cloud model data-extending approach for meteorologic and hydrologic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Ding, Hao; Singh, Vijay P.; Shang, Xiaosan; Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing

2015-05-01

For scientific and sustainable management of water resources, hydrologic and meteorologic data series need to be often extended. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, named WA-CM (wavelet analysis-cloud model), for data series extension. Wavelet analysis has time-frequency localization features, known as "mathematics microscope," that can decompose and reconstruct hydrologic and meteorologic series by wavelet transform. The cloud model is a mathematical representation of fuzziness and randomness and has strong robustness for uncertain data. The WA-CM approach first employs the wavelet transform to decompose the measured nonstationary series and then uses the cloud model to develop an extension model for each decomposition layer series. The final extension is obtained by summing the results of extension of each layer. Two kinds of meteorologic and hydrologic data sets with different characteristics and different influence of human activity from six (three pairs) representative stations are used to illustrate the WA-CM approach. The approach is also compared with four other methods, which are conventional correlation extension method, Kendall-Theil robust line method, artificial neural network method (back propagation, multilayer perceptron, and radial basis function), and single cloud model method. To evaluate the model performance completely and thoroughly, five measures are used, which are relative error, mean relative error, standard deviation of relative error, root mean square error, and Thiel inequality coefficient. Results show that the WA-CM approach is effective, feasible, and accurate and is found to be better than other four methods compared. The theory employed and the approach developed here can be applied to extension of data in other areas as well.

Measurement error: Implications for diagnosis and discrepancy models of developmental dyslexia.

PubMed

Cotton, Sue M; Crewther, David P; Crewther, Sheila G

2005-08-01

The diagnosis of developmental dyslexia (DD) is reliant on a discrepancy between intellectual functioning and reading achievement. Discrepancy-based formulae have frequently been employed to establish the significance of the difference between 'intelligence' and 'actual' reading achievement. These formulae, however, often fail to take into consideration test reliability and the error associated with a single test score. This paper provides an illustration of the potential effects that test reliability and measurement error can have on the diagnosis of dyslexia, with particular reference to discrepancy models. The roles of reliability and standard error of measurement (SEM) in classic test theory are also briefly reviewed. This is followed by illustrations of how SEM and test reliability can aid with the interpretation of a simple discrepancy-based formula of DD. It is proposed that a lack of consideration of test theory in the use of discrepancy-based models of DD can lead to misdiagnosis (both false positives and false negatives). Further, misdiagnosis in research samples affects reproducibility and generalizability of findings. This in turn, may explain current inconsistencies in research on the perceptual, sensory, and motor correlates of dyslexia.

Error in Airspeed Measurement Due to the Static-Pressure Field Ahead of an Airplane at Transonic Speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Bryan, Thomas C; Danforth, Edward C B; Johnston, J Ford

1955-01-01

The magnitude and variation of the static-pressure error for various distances ahead of sharp-nose bodies and open-nose air inlets and for a distance of 1 chord ahead of the wing tip of a swept wing are defined by a combination of experiment and theory. The mechanism of the error is discussed in some detail to show the contributing factors that make up the error. The information presented provides a useful means for choosing a proper location for measurement of static pressure for most purposes.

Multipath induced errors in meteorological Doppler/interferometer location systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, R. G.

1984-01-01

One application of an RF interferometer aboard a low-orbiting spacecraft to determine the location of ground-based transmitters is in tracking high-altitude balloons for meteorological studies. A source of error in this application is reflection of the signal from the sea surface. Through propagating and signal analysis, the magnitude of the reflection-induced error in both Doppler frequency measurements and interferometer phase measurements was estimated. The theory of diffuse scattering from random surfaces was applied to obtain the power spectral density of the reflected signal. The processing of the combined direct and reflected signals was then analyzed to find the statistics of the measurement error. It was found that the error varies greatly during the satellite overpass and attains its maximum value at closest approach. The maximum values of interferometer phase error and Doppler frequency error found for the system configuration considered were comparable to thermal noise-induced error.

Reducing Diagnostic Errors through Effective Communication: Harnessing the Power of Information Technology

PubMed Central

Naik, Aanand Dinkar; Rao, Raghuram; Petersen, Laura Ann

2008-01-01

Diagnostic errors are poorly understood despite being a frequent cause of medical errors. Recent efforts have aimed to advance the "basic science" of diagnostic error prevention by tracing errors to their most basic origins. Although a refined theory of diagnostic error prevention will take years to formulate, we focus on communication breakdown, a major contributor to diagnostic errors and an increasingly recognized preventable factor in medical mishaps. We describe a comprehensive framework that integrates the potential sources of communication breakdowns within the diagnostic process and identifies vulnerable steps in the diagnostic process where various types of communication breakdowns can precipitate error. We then discuss potential information technology-based interventions that may have efficacy in preventing one or more forms of these breakdowns. These possible intervention strategies include using new technologies to enhance communication between health providers and health systems, improve patient involvement, and facilitate management of information in the medical record. PMID:18373151

A theory for predicting composite laminate warpage resulting from fabrication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1975-01-01

Linear laminate theory is used in conjunction with the moment-curvature relationship to derive equations for predicting end deflections due to warpage without solving the coupled fourth-order partial differential equations of the plate. Using these equations, it is found that a 1 deg error in the orientation angle of one ply is sufficient to produce warpage end deflection equal to two laminate thicknesses in a 10 inch by 10 inch laminate made from 8-ply Mod-I/epoxy. From a sensitivity analysis on the governing parameters, it is found that a 3 deg fiber migration or a void volume ratio of three percent in some plies is sufficient to produce laminate warpage corner deflection equal to several laminate thicknesses. Tabular and graphical data are presented which can be used to identify possible errors contributing to laminate warpage and/or to obtain an a priori assessment when unavoidable errors during fabrication are anticipated.

ecco: An error correcting comparator theory.

PubMed

Ghirlanda, Stefano

2018-03-08

Building on the work of Ralph Miller and coworkers (Miller and Matzel, 1988; Denniston et al., 2001; Stout and Miller, 2007), I propose a new formalization of the comparator hypothesis that seeks to overcome some shortcomings of existing formalizations. The new model, dubbed ecco for "Error-Correcting COmparisons," retains the comparator process and the learning of CS-CS associations based on contingency. ecco assumes, however, that learning of CS-US associations is driven by total error correction, as first introduced by Rescorla and Wagner (1972). I explore ecco's behavior in acquisition, compound conditioning, blocking, backward blocking, and unovershadowing. In these paradigms, ecco appears capable of avoiding the problems of current comparator models, such as the inability to solve some discriminations and some paradoxical effects of stimulus salience. At the same time, ecco exhibits the retrospective revaluation phenomena that are characteristic of comparator theory. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing human error in aviation.

PubMed

Helmreich, R L

1997-05-01

Crew resource management (CRM) programs were developed to address team and leadership aspects of piloting modern airplanes. The goal is to reduce errors through team work. Human factors research and social, cognitive, and organizational psychology are used to develop programs tailored for individual airlines. Flight crews study accident case histories, group dynamics, and human error. Simulators provide pilots with the opportunity to solve complex flight problems. CRM in the simulator is called line-oriented flight training (LOFT). In automated cockpits CRM promotes the idea of automation as a crew member. Cultural aspects of aviation include professional, business, and national culture. The aviation CRM model has been adapted for training surgeons and operating room staff in human factors.

Empirical Analysis of Systematic Communication Errors.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

human o~ . .... 8 components in communication systems. (Systematic errors were defined to be those that occur regularly in human communication links...phase of the human communication process and focuses on the linkage between a specific piece of information (and the receiver) and the transmission...communication flow. (2) Exchange. Exchange is the next phase in human communication and entails a concerted effort on the part of the sender and receiver to share

HRA Aerospace Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana

2013-01-01

Compared to equipment designed to perform the same function over and over, humans are just not as reliable. Computers and machines perform the same action in the same way repeatedly getting the same result, unless equipment fails or a human interferes. Humans who are supposed to perform the same actions repeatedly often perform them incorrectly due to a variety of issues including: stress, fatigue, illness, lack of training, distraction, acting at the wrong time, not acting when they should, not following procedures, misinterpreting information or inattention to detail. Why not use robots and automatic controls exclusively if human error is so common? In an emergency or off normal situation that the computer, robotic element, or automatic control system is not designed to respond to, the result is failure unless a human can intervene. The human in the loop may be more likely to cause an error, but is also more likely to catch the error and correct it. When it comes to unexpected situations, or performing multiple tasks outside the defined mission parameters, humans are the only viable alternative. Human Reliability Assessments (HRA) identifies ways to improve human performance and reliability and can lead to improvements in systems designed to interact with humans. Understanding the context of the situation that can lead to human errors, which include taking the wrong action, no action or making bad decisions provides additional information to mitigate risks. With improved human reliability comes reduced risk for the overall operation or project.

Identifying Human Factors Issues in Aircraft Maintenance Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veinott, Elizabeth S.; Kanki, Barbara G.; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

Maintenance operations incidents submitted to the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) between 1986-1992 were systematically analyzed in order to identify issues relevant to human factors and crew coordination. This exploratory analysis involved 95 ASRS reports which represented a wide range of maintenance incidents. The reports were coded and analyzed according to the type of error (e.g, wrong part, procedural error, non-procedural error), contributing factors (e.g., individual, within-team, cross-team, procedure, tools), result of the error (e.g., aircraft damage or not) as well as the operational impact (e.g., aircraft flown to destination, air return, delay at gate). The main findings indicate that procedural errors were most common (48.4%) and that individual and team actions contributed to the errors in more than 50% of the cases. As for operational results, most errors were either corrected after landing at the destination (51.6%) or required the flight crew to stop enroute (29.5%). Interactions among these variables are also discussed. This analysis is a first step toward developing a taxonomy of crew coordination problems in maintenance. By understanding what variables are important and how they are interrelated, we may develop intervention strategies that are better tailored to the human factor issues involved.

Managing Errors to Reduce Accidents in High Consequence Networked Information Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ganter, J.H.

1999-02-01

Computers have always helped to amplify and propagate errors made by people. The emergence of Networked Information Systems (NISs), which allow people and systems to quickly interact worldwide, has made understanding and minimizing human error more critical. This paper applies concepts from system safety to analyze how hazards (from hackers to power disruptions) penetrate NIS defenses (e.g., firewalls and operating systems) to cause accidents. Such events usually result from both active, easily identified failures and more subtle latent conditions that have resided in the system for long periods. Both active failures and latent conditions result from human errors. We classifymore » these into several types (slips, lapses, mistakes, etc.) and provide NIS examples of how they occur. Next we examine error minimization throughout the NIS lifecycle, from design through operation to reengineering. At each stage, steps can be taken to minimize the occurrence and effects of human errors. These include defensive design philosophies, architectural patterns to guide developers, and collaborative design that incorporates operational experiences and surprises into design efforts. We conclude by looking at three aspects of NISs that will cause continuing challenges in error and accident management: immaturity of the industry, limited risk perception, and resource tradeoffs.« less

Investigating mode errors on automated flight decks: illustrating the problem-driven, cumulative, and interdisciplinary nature of human factors research.

PubMed

Sarter, Nadine

2008-06-01

The goal of this article is to illustrate the problem-driven, cumulative, and highly interdisciplinary nature of human factors research by providing a brief overview of the work on mode errors on modern flight decks over the past two decades. Mode errors on modem flight decks were first reported in the late 1980s. Poor feedback, inadequate mental models of the automation, and the high degree of coupling and complexity of flight deck systems were identified as main contributors to these breakdowns in human-automation interaction. Various improvements of design, training, and procedures were proposed to address these issues. The author describes when and why the problem of mode errors surfaced, summarizes complementary research activities that helped identify and understand the contributing factors to mode errors, and describes some countermeasures that have been developed in recent years. This brief review illustrates how one particular human factors problem in the aviation domain enabled various disciplines and methodological approaches to contribute to a better understanding of, as well as provide better support for, effective human-automation coordination. Converging operations and interdisciplinary collaboration over an extended period of time are hallmarks of successful human factors research. The reported body of research can serve as a model for future research and as a teaching tool for students in this field of work.

The Swiss cheese model of adverse event occurrence--Closing the holes.

PubMed

Stein, James E; Heiss, Kurt

2015-12-01

Traditional surgical attitude regarding error and complications has focused on individual failings. Human factors research has brought new and significant insights into the occurrence of error in healthcare, helping us identify systemic problems that injure patients while enhancing individual accountability and teamwork. This article introduces human factors science and its applicability to teamwork, surgical culture, medical error, and individual accountability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behind Human Error: Cognitive Systems, Computers and Hindsight

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-01

evaluations • Organize and/or conduct workshops and conferences CSERIAC is a Department of Defense Information Analysis Cen- ter sponsored by the Defense...Process 185 Neutral Observer Criteria 191 Error Analysis as Causal Judgment 193 Error as Information 195 A Fundamental Surprise 195 What is Human...Kahnemann, 1974), and in risk analysis (Dougherty and Fragola, 1990). The discussions have continued in a wide variety of forums, includ- ing the

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

PubMed

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

2014-12-01

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A validation study of a stochastic model of human interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burchfield, Mitchel Talmadge

The purpose of this dissertation is to validate a stochastic model of human interactions which is part of a developmentalism paradigm. Incorporating elements of ancient and contemporary philosophy and science, developmentalism defines human development as a progression of increasing competence and utilizes compatible theories of developmental psychology, cognitive psychology, educational psychology, social psychology, curriculum development, neurology, psychophysics, and physics. To validate a stochastic model of human interactions, the study addressed four research questions: (a) Does attitude vary over time? (b) What are the distributional assumptions underlying attitudes? (c) Does the stochastic model, {-}N{intlimitssbsp{-infty}{infty}}varphi(chi,tau)\\ Psi(tau)dtau, have utility for the study of attitudinal distributions and dynamics? (d) Are the Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac, and Bose-Einstein theories applicable to human groups? Approximately 25,000 attitude observations were made using the Semantic Differential Scale. Positions of individuals varied over time and the logistic model predicted observed distributions with correlations between 0.98 and 1.0, with estimated standard errors significantly less than the magnitudes of the parameters. The results bring into question the applicability of Fisherian research designs (Fisher, 1922, 1928, 1938) for behavioral research based on the apparent failure of two fundamental assumptions-the noninteractive nature of the objects being studied and normal distribution of attributes. The findings indicate that individual belief structures are representable in terms of a psychological space which has the same or similar properties as physical space. The psychological space not only has dimension, but individuals interact by force equations similar to those described in theoretical physics models. Nonlinear regression techniques were used to estimate Fermi-Dirac parameters from the data. The model explained a high degree of the variance in each probability distribution. The correlation between predicted and observed probabilities ranged from a low of 0.955 to a high value of 0.998, indicating that humans behave in psychological space as Fermions behave in momentum space.

A theory for how sensorimotor skills are learned and retained in noisy and nonstationary neural circuits

PubMed Central

Ajemian, Robert; D’Ausilio, Alessandro; Moorman, Helene; Bizzi, Emilio

2013-01-01

During the process of skill learning, synaptic connections in our brains are modified to form motor memories of learned sensorimotor acts. The more plastic the adult brain is, the easier it is to learn new skills or adapt to neurological injury. However, if the brain is too plastic and the pattern of synaptic connectivity is constantly changing, new memories will overwrite old memories, and learning becomes unstable. This trade-off is known as the stability–plasticity dilemma. Here a theory of sensorimotor learning and memory is developed whereby synaptic strengths are perpetually fluctuating without causing instability in motor memory recall, as long as the underlying neural networks are sufficiently noisy and massively redundant. The theory implies two distinct stages of learning—preasymptotic and postasymptotic—because once the error drops to a level comparable to that of the noise-induced error, further error reduction requires altered network dynamics. A key behavioral prediction derived from this analysis is tested in a visuomotor adaptation experiment, and the resultant learning curves are modeled with a nonstationary neural network. Next, the theory is used to model two-photon microscopy data that show, in animals, high rates of dendritic spine turnover, even in the absence of overt behavioral learning. Finally, the theory predicts enhanced task selectivity in the responses of individual motor cortical neurons as the level of task expertise increases. From these considerations, a unique interpretation of sensorimotor memory is proposed—memories are defined not by fixed patterns of synaptic weights but, rather, by nonstationary synaptic patterns that fluctuate coherently. PMID:24324147

Improving the estimate of the effective elastic modulus derived from three-point bending tests of long bones.

PubMed

Kourtis, Lampros C; Carter, Dennis R; Beaupre, Gary S

2014-08-01

Three-point bending tests are often used to determine the apparent or effective elastic modulus of long bones. The use of beam theory equations to interpret such tests can result in a substantial underestimation of the true effective modulus. In this study three-dimensional, nonlinear finite element analysis is used to quantify the errors inherent in beam theory and to create plots that can be used to correct the elastic modulus calculated from beam theory. Correction plots are generated for long bones representative of a variety of species commonly used in research studies. For a long bone with dimensions comparable to the mouse femur, the majority of the error in the effective elastic modulus results from deformations to the bone cross section that are not accounted for in the equations from beam theory. In some cases, the effective modulus calculated from beam theory can be less than one-third of the true effective modulus. Errors are larger: (1) for bones having short spans relative to bone length; (2) for bones with thin vs. thick cortices relative to periosteal diameter; and (3) when using a small radius or "knife-edge" geometry for the center loading ram and the outer supports in the three-point testing system. The use of these correction plots will enable researchers to compare results for long bones from different animal strains and to compare results obtained using testing systems that differ with regard to length between the outer supports and the radius used for the loading ram and outer supports.

Realtime mitigation of GPS SA errors using Loran-C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braasch, Soo Y.

1994-01-01

The hybrid use of Loran-C with the Global Positioning System (GPS) was shown capable of providing a sole-means of enroute air radionavigation. By allowing pilots to fly direct to their destinations, use of this system is resulting in significant time savings and therefore fuel savings as well. However, a major error source limiting the accuracy of GPS is the intentional degradation of the GPS signal known as Selective Availability (SA). SA-induced position errors are highly correlated and far exceed all other error sources (horizontal position error: 100 meters, 95 percent). Realtime mitigation of SA errors from the position solution is highly desirable. How that can be achieved is discussed. The stability of Loran-C signals is exploited to reduce SA errors. The theory behind this technique is discussed and results using bench and flight data are given.

Hard sphere perturbation theory for thermodynamics of soft-sphere model liquid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, K. K.

2001-09-01

It is a long-standing consensus in the literature that hard sphere perturbation theory (HSPT) is not accurate for dense soft sphere model liquids, interacting with repulsive r-n pair potentials for small n. In this paper, we show that if the intrinsic error of HSPT for soft sphere model liquids is accounted for, then this is not completely true. We present results for n=4, 6, 9, 12 which indicate that, even first order variational HSPT can provide free energy upper bounds to within a few percent at densities near freezing when corrected for the intrinsic error of the HSPT.

Increased Attentional Focus Modulates Eye Movements in a Mixed Antisaccade Task for Younger and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Wang, Jingxin; Tian, Jing; Wang, Rong; Benson, Valerie

2013-01-01

We examined performance in the antisaccade task for younger and older adults by comparing latencies and errors in what we defined as high attentional focus (mixed antisaccades and prosaccades in the same block) and low attentional focus (antisaccades and prosaccades in separate blocks) conditions. Shorter saccade latencies for correctly executed eye movements were observed for both groups in mixed, compared to blocked, antisaccade tasks, but antisaccade error rates were higher for older participants across both conditions. The results are discussed in relation to the inhibitory hypothesis, the goal neglect theory and attentional control theory. PMID:23620767

Image-Guided Intraoperative Cortical Deformation Recovery Using Game Theory: Application to Neocortical Epilepsy Surgery

PubMed Central

DeLorenzo, Christine; Papademetris, Xenophon; Staib, Lawrence H.; Vives, Kenneth P.; Spencer, Dennis D.; Duncan, James S.

2010-01-01

During neurosurgery, nonrigid brain deformation prevents preoperatively-acquired images from accurately depicting the intraoperative brain. Stereo vision systems can be used to track intraoperative cortical surface deformation and update preoperative brain images in conjunction with a biomechanical model. However, these stereo systems are often plagued with calibration error, which can corrupt the deformation estimation. In order to decouple the effects of camera calibration from the surface deformation estimation, a framework that can solve for disparate and often competing variables is needed. Game theory, which was developed to handle decision making in this type of competitive environment, has been applied to various fields from economics to biology. In this paper, game theory is applied to cortical surface tracking during neocortical epilepsy surgery and used to infer information about the physical processes of brain surface deformation and image acquisition. The method is successfully applied to eight in vivo cases, resulting in an 81% decrease in mean surface displacement error. This includes a case in which some of the initial camera calibration parameters had errors of 70%. Additionally, the advantages of using a game theoretic approach in neocortical epilepsy surgery are clearly demonstrated in its robustness to initial conditions. PMID:20129844

Acquisition Theory and Experimental Design: A Critique of Tomasello and Herron.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Maria-Luise; Eubank, Lynn

1991-01-01

Caution should be taken in viewing previous research indicating that negative evidence, a special type of error correction to eliminate overgeneralizations, could be crucial to second-language learning, because the underlying theories adopted for that research possibly could be flawed. (10 references) (CB)

Combining task analysis and fault tree analysis for accident and incident analysis: a case study from Bulgaria.

PubMed

Doytchev, Doytchin E; Szwillus, Gerd

2009-11-01

Understanding the reasons for incident and accident occurrence is important for an organization's safety. Different methods have been developed to achieve this goal. To better understand the human behaviour in incident occurrence we propose an analysis concept that combines Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Task Analysis (TA). The former method identifies the root causes of an accident/incident, while the latter analyses the way people perform the tasks in their work environment and how they interact with machines or colleagues. These methods were complemented with the use of the Human Error Identification in System Tools (HEIST) methodology and the concept of Performance Shaping Factors (PSF) to deepen the insight into the error modes of an operator's behaviour. HEIST shows the external error modes that caused the human error and the factors that prompted the human to err. To show the validity of the approach, a case study at a Bulgarian Hydro power plant was carried out. An incident - the flooding of the plant's basement - was analysed by combining the afore-mentioned methods. The case study shows that Task Analysis in combination with other methods can be applied successfully to human error analysis, revealing details about erroneous actions in a realistic situation.

Object permanence in adult common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus): not everything is an "A-not-B" error that seems to be one.

PubMed

Kis, Anna; Gácsi, Márta; Range, Friederike; Virányi, Zsófia

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe a behaviour pattern similar to the "A-not-B" error found in human infants and young apes in a monkey species, the common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus). In contrast to the classical explanation, recently it has been suggested that the "A-not-B" error committed by human infants is at least partially due to misinterpretation of the hider's ostensively communicated object hiding actions as potential 'teaching' demonstrations during the A trials. We tested whether this so-called Natural Pedagogy hypothesis would account for the A-not-B error that marmosets commit in a standard object permanence task, but found no support for the hypothesis in this species. Alternatively, we present evidence that lower level mechanisms, such as attention and motivation, play an important role in committing the "A-not-B" error in marmosets. We argue that these simple mechanisms might contribute to the effect of undeveloped object representational skills in other species including young non-human primates that commit the A-not-B error.

A signal detection-item response theory model for evaluating neuropsychological measures.

PubMed

Thomas, Michael L; Brown, Gregory G; Gur, Ruben C; Moore, Tyler M; Patt, Virginie M; Risbrough, Victoria B; Baker, Dewleen G

2018-02-05

Models from signal detection theory are commonly used to score neuropsychological test data, especially tests of recognition memory. Here we show that certain item response theory models can be formulated as signal detection theory models, thus linking two complementary but distinct methodologies. We then use the approach to evaluate the validity (construct representation) of commonly used research measures, demonstrate the impact of conditional error on neuropsychological outcomes, and evaluate measurement bias. Signal detection-item response theory (SD-IRT) models were fitted to recognition memory data for words, faces, and objects. The sample consisted of U.S. Infantry Marines and Navy Corpsmen participating in the Marine Resiliency Study. Data comprised item responses to the Penn Face Memory Test (PFMT; N = 1,338), Penn Word Memory Test (PWMT; N = 1,331), and Visual Object Learning Test (VOLT; N = 1,249), and self-report of past head injury with loss of consciousness. SD-IRT models adequately fitted recognition memory item data across all modalities. Error varied systematically with ability estimates, and distributions of residuals from the regression of memory discrimination onto self-report of past head injury were positively skewed towards regions of larger measurement error. Analyses of differential item functioning revealed little evidence of systematic bias by level of education. SD-IRT models benefit from the measurement rigor of item response theory-which permits the modeling of item difficulty and examinee ability-and from signal detection theory-which provides an interpretive framework encompassing the experimentally validated constructs of memory discrimination and response bias. We used this approach to validate the construct representation of commonly used research measures and to demonstrate how nonoptimized item parameters can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpreting neuropsychological test data. Future work might include the development of computerized adaptive tests and integration with mixture and random-effects models.

Updating expected action outcome in the medial frontal cortex involves an evaluation of error type.

PubMed

Maier, Martin E; Steinhauser, Marco

2013-10-02

Forming expectations about the outcome of an action is an important prerequisite for action control and reinforcement learning in the human brain. The medial frontal cortex (MFC) has been shown to play an important role in the representation of outcome expectations, particularly when an update of expected outcome becomes necessary because an error is detected. However, error detection alone is not always sufficient to compute expected outcome because errors can occur in various ways and different types of errors may be associated with different outcomes. In the present study, we therefore investigate whether updating expected outcome in the human MFC is based on an evaluation of error type. Our approach was to consider an electrophysiological correlate of MFC activity on errors, the error-related negativity (Ne/ERN), in a task in which two types of errors could occur. Because the two error types were associated with different amounts of monetary loss, updating expected outcomes on error trials required an evaluation of error type. Our data revealed a pattern of Ne/ERN amplitudes that closely mirrored the amount of monetary loss associated with each error type, suggesting that outcome expectations are updated based on an evaluation of error type. We propose that this is achieved by a proactive evaluation process that anticipates error types by continuously monitoring error sources or by dynamically representing possible response-outcome relations.

Adaptation to sensory-motor reflex perturbations is blind to the source of errors.

PubMed

Hudson, Todd E; Landy, Michael S

2012-01-06

In the study of visual-motor control, perhaps the most familiar findings involve adaptation to externally imposed movement errors. Theories of visual-motor adaptation based on optimal information processing suppose that the nervous system identifies the sources of errors to effect the most efficient adaptive response. We report two experiments using a novel perturbation based on stimulating a visually induced reflex in the reaching arm. Unlike adaptation to an external force, our method induces a perturbing reflex within the motor system itself, i.e., perturbing forces are self-generated. This novel method allows a test of the theory that error source information is used to generate an optimal adaptive response. If the self-generated source of the visually induced reflex perturbation is identified, the optimal response will be via reflex gain control. If the source is not identified, a compensatory force should be generated to counteract the reflex. Gain control is the optimal response to reflex perturbation, both because energy cost and movement errors are minimized. Energy is conserved because neither reflex-induced nor compensatory forces are generated. Precision is maximized because endpoint variance is proportional to force production. We find evidence against source-identified adaptation in both experiments, suggesting that sensory-motor information processing is not always optimal.

Gaussian Hypothesis Testing and Quantum Illumination.

PubMed

Wilde, Mark M; Tomamichel, Marco; Lloyd, Seth; Berta, Mario

2017-09-22

Quantum hypothesis testing is one of the most basic tasks in quantum information theory and has fundamental links with quantum communication and estimation theory. In this paper, we establish a formula that characterizes the decay rate of the minimal type-II error probability in a quantum hypothesis test of two Gaussian states given a fixed constraint on the type-I error probability. This formula is a direct function of the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the quantum Gaussian states in question. We give an application to quantum illumination, which is the task of determining whether there is a low-reflectivity object embedded in a target region with a bright thermal-noise bath. For the asymmetric-error setting, we find that a quantum illumination transmitter can achieve an error probability exponent stronger than a coherent-state transmitter of the same mean photon number, and furthermore, that it requires far fewer trials to do so. This occurs when the background thermal noise is either low or bright, which means that a quantum advantage is even easier to witness than in the symmetric-error setting because it occurs for a larger range of parameters. Going forward from here, we expect our formula to have applications in settings well beyond those considered in this paper, especially to quantum communication tasks involving quantum Gaussian channels.

The famous five factors in teamwork: a case study of fratricide.

PubMed

Rafferty, Laura A; Stanton, Neville A; Walker, Guy H

2010-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to propose foundations for a theory of errors in teamwork based upon analysis of a case study of fratricide alongside a review of the existing literature. This approach may help to promote a better understanding of interactions within complex systems and help in the formulation of hypotheses and predictions concerning errors in teamwork, particularly incidents of fratricide. It is proposed that a fusion of concepts drawn from error models, with common causal categories taken from teamwork models, could allow for an in-depth exploration of incidents of fratricide. It is argued that such a model has the potential to explore the core causal categories identified as present in an incident of fratricide. This view marks fratricide as a process of errors occurring throughout the military system as a whole, particularly due to problems in teamwork within this complex system. Implications of this viewpoint for the development of a new theory of fratricide are offered. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This article provides an insight into the fusion of existing error and teamwork models for the analysis of an incident of fratricide. Within this paper, a number of commonalities among models of teamwork have been identified allowing for the development of a model.

Research on Spectroscopy, Opacity, and Atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurucz, Robert L.

1996-01-01

I discuss errors in theory and in interpreting observations that are produced by the failure to consider resolution in space, time, and energy. I discuss convection in stellar model atmospheres and in stars. Large errors in abundances are possible such as the factor of ten error in the Li abundance for extreme Population II stars. Finally I discuss the variation of microturbulent velocity with depth, effective temperature, gravity and abundance. These variations must be dealt with in computing models and grids and in any type of photometric calibration.

Effect of asymmetrical transfer coefficients of a non-polarizing beam splitter on the nonlinear error of the polarization interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Chen-Guang; Tan, Jiu-Bin; Liu, Tao

2010-09-01

The mechanism of a non-polarizing beam splitter (NPBS) with asymmetrical transfer coefficients causing the rotation of polarization direction is explained in principle, and the measurement nonlinear error caused by NPBS is analyzed based on Jones matrix theory. Theoretical calculations show that the nonlinear error changes periodically, and the error period and peak values increase with the deviation between transmissivities of p-polarization and s-polarization states. When the transmissivity of p-polarization is 53% and that of s-polarization is 48%, the maximum error reaches 2.7 nm. The imperfection of NPBS is one of the main error sources in simultaneous phase-shifting polarization interferometer, and its influence can not be neglected in the nanoscale ultra-precision measurement.

Theory and compensation method of axial magnetic error induced by axial magnetic field in a polarization-maintaining fiber optic gyro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yanru; Zhao, Yuxiang; Tian, Hui; Zhang, Dengwei; Huang, Tengchao; Miao, Lijun; Shu, Xiaowu; Che, Shuangliang; Liu, Cheng

2016-12-01

In an axial magnetic field (AMF), which is vertical to the plane of the fiber coil, a polarization-maintaining fiber optic gyro (PM-FOG) appears as an axial magnetic error. This error is linearly related to the intensity of an AMF, the radius of the fiber coil, and the light wavelength, and also influenced by the distribution of fiber twist. When a PM-FOG is manufactured completely, this error only appears a linear correlation with the AMF. A real-time compensation model is established to eliminate the error, and the experimental results show that the axial magnetic error of the PM-FOG is decreased from 5.83 to 0.09 deg/h in 12G AMF with 18-dB suppression.

Online machining error estimation method of numerical control gear grinding machine tool based on data analysis of internal sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Fei; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Guilin; Chen, Chinyin

2016-12-01

This paper presents an online estimation method of cutting error by analyzing of internal sensor readings. The internal sensors of numerical control (NC) machine tool are selected to avoid installation problem. The estimation mathematic model of cutting error was proposed to compute the relative position of cutting point and tool center point (TCP) from internal sensor readings based on cutting theory of gear. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, it was simulated and experimented in gear generating grinding process. The cutting error of gear was estimated and the factors which induce cutting error were analyzed. The simulation and experiments verify that the proposed approach is an efficient way to estimate the cutting error of work-piece during machining process.

Does the brain use sliding variables for the control of movements?

PubMed

Hanneton, S; Berthoz, A; Droulez, J; Slotine, J J

1997-12-01

Delays in the transmission of sensory and motor information prevent errors from being instantaneously available to the central nervous system (CNS) and can reduce the stability of a closed-loop control strategy. On the other hand, the use of a pure feedforward control (inverse dynamics) requires a perfect knowledge of the dynamic behavior of the body and of manipulated objects. Sensory feedback is essential both to accommodate unexpected errors and events and to compensate for uncertainties about the dynamics of the body. Experimental observations concerning the control of posture, gaze and limbs have shown that the CNS certainly uses a combination of closed-loop and open-loop control. Feedforward components of movement, such as eye saccades, occur intermittently and present a stereotyped kinematic profile. In visuo-manual tracking tasks, hand movements exhibit velocity peaks that occur intermittently. When a delay or a slow dynamics are inserted in the visuo-manual control loop, intermittent step-and-hold movements appear clearly in the hand trajectory. In this study, we investigated strategies used by human subjects involved in the control of a particular dynamic system. We found strong evidence for substantial nonlinearities in the commands produced. The presence of step-and-hold movements seemed to be the major source of nonlinearities in the control loop. Furthermore, the stereotyped ballistic-like kinematics of these rapid and corrective movements suggests that they were produced in an open-loop way by the CNS. We analyzed the generation of ballistic movements in the light of sliding control theory assuming that they occurred when a sliding variable exceeded a constant threshold. In this framework, a sliding variable is defined as a composite variable (a combination of the instantaneous tracking error and its temporal derivatives) that fulfills a specific stability criterion. Based on this hypothesis and on the assumption of a constant reaction time, the tracking error and its derivatives should be correlated at a particular time lag before movement onset. A peak of correlation was found for a physiologically plausible reaction time, corresponding to a stable composite variable. The direction and amplitude of the ongoing stereotyped movements seemed also be adjusted in order to minimize this variable. These findings suggest that, during visually guided movements, human subjects attempt to minimize such a composite variable and not the instantaneous error. This minimization seems to be obtained by the execution of stereotyped corrective movements.

CE: Nursing's Evolving Role in Patient Safety.

PubMed

Kowalski, Sonya L; Anthony, Maureen

2017-02-01

: Background: In its 1999 report To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System, the Institute of Medicine (IOM) suggested that between 44,000 and 98,000 Americans die annually as a result of medical errors. The report urged health care institutions to break the silence surrounding such errors and to implement changes that would promote a culture of safety. Our aim in conducting this content analysis of AJN articles was to explore the nurse's historical and contemporary role in promoting patient safety. We chose to focus on AJN because, as the oldest continuously published nursing journal, it provided a unique opportunity for us to view trends in nursing practice over more than 100 years. We reviewed all AJN tables of contents from 1900 through 2015, identifying for inclusion articles with titles that suggested a focus on nursing care, patient safety, or clinical content. We then read and analyzed each of the final 1,086 articles over a period of nine months. Our content analysis indicates that the early articles (from 1900 through 1920) focused on such safety measures as asepsis and the newly understood germ theory. In the 1930s, articles proposed methods for preventing medication errors and encouraged the development of written procedures to standardize care. During World War II, nurse authors identified improved patient survival rates with the use of "shock wards" and recovery rooms. The 1950s saw the emergence of progressive patient care initiatives, through which patients were assigned to various levels of care (intensive, intermediate, self, long-term, or home care) based on patient acuity. The 1960s brought increasingly complex equipment and medication regimens, which created safety problems. Hospital-acquired infections were recognized. Unit-dose medication was instituted in the 1970s. In the next two decades, medication and nursing-procedure safety were emphasized. From 2000 to 2015, articles looked beyond human performance as causes of health care errors to systemic factors, such as poor communication, patient-nurse ratios, provider skill mix, disruptive or inappropriate provider behavior, shift work, and long working hours. Emphasis on patient safety increased as patient care became more complex. As nurses developed a professional identity, they often put a spotlight on safety concerns and solutions. The IOM report, which encouraged research focused on systemic solutions to errors, was instrumental in furthering the very culture of safety that the nursing profession had championed.

Accounting for measurement error in human life history trade-offs using structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Helle, Samuli

2018-03-01

Revealing causal effects from correlative data is very challenging and a contemporary problem in human life history research owing to the lack of experimental approach. Problems with causal inference arising from measurement error in independent variables, whether related either to inaccurate measurement technique or validity of measurements, seem not well-known in this field. The aim of this study is to show how structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables can be applied to account for measurement error in independent variables when the researcher has recorded several indicators of a hypothesized latent construct. As a simple example of this approach, measurement error in lifetime allocation of resources to reproduction in Finnish preindustrial women is modelled in the context of the survival cost of reproduction. In humans, lifetime energetic resources allocated in reproduction are almost impossible to quantify with precision and, thus, typically used measures of lifetime reproductive effort (e.g., lifetime reproductive success and parity) are likely to be plagued by measurement error. These results are contrasted with those obtained from a traditional regression approach where the single best proxy of lifetime reproductive effort available in the data is used for inference. As expected, the inability to account for measurement error in women's lifetime reproductive effort resulted in the underestimation of its underlying effect size on post-reproductive survival. This article emphasizes the advantages that the SEM framework can provide in handling measurement error via multiple-indicator latent variables in human life history studies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Factors contributing to registered nurse medication administration error: a narrative review.

PubMed

Parry, Angela M; Barriball, K Louise; While, Alison E

2015-01-01

To explore the factors contributing to Registered Nurse medication administration error behaviour. A narrative review. Electronic databases (Cochrane, CINAHL, MEDLINE, BNI, EmBase, and PsycINFO) were searched from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2012 in the English language. 1127 papers were identified and 26 papers were included in the review. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer. A thematic analysis and narrative synthesis of the factors contributing to Registered Nurses' medication administration behaviour. Bandura's (1986) theory of reciprocal determinism was used as an organising framework. This theory proposes that there is a reciprocal interplay between the environment, the person and their behaviour. Medication administration error is an outcome of RN behaviour. The 26 papers reported studies conducted in 4 continents across 11 countries predominantly in North America and Europe, with one multi-national study incorporating 27 countries. Within both the environment and person domain of the reciprocal determinism framework, a number of factors emerged as influencing Registered Nurse medication administration error behaviour. Within the environment domain, two key themes of clinical workload and work setting emerged, and within the person domain the Registered Nurses' characteristics and their lived experience of work emerged as themes. Overall, greater attention has been given to the contribution of the environment domain rather than the person domain as contributing to error, with the literature viewing an error as an event rather than the outcome of behaviour. The interplay between factors that influence behaviour were poorly accounted for within the selected studies. It is proposed that a shift away from error as an event to a focus on the relationships between the person, the environment and Registered Nurse medication administration behaviour is needed to better understand medication administration error. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emotion perception, non-social cognition and symptoms as predictors of theory of mind in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Vaskinn, Anja; Andersson, Stein; Østefjells, Tiril; Andreassen, Ole A; Sundet, Kjetil

2018-06-05

Theory of mind (ToM) can be divided into cognitive and affective ToM, and a distinction can be made between overmentalizing and undermentalizing errors. Research has shown that ToM in schizophrenia is associated with non-social and social cognition, and with clinical symptoms. In this study, we investigate cognitive and clinical predictors of different ToM processes. Ninety-one individuals with schizophrenia participated. ToM was measured with the Movie for the Assessment of Social Cognition (MASC) yielding six scores (total ToM, cognitive ToM, affective ToM, overmentalizing errors, undermentalizing errors and no mentalizing errors). Neurocognition was indexed by a composite score based on the non-social cognitive tests in the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB). Emotion perception was measured with Emotion in Biological Motion (EmoBio), a point-light walker task. Clinical symptoms were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Seventy-one healthy control (HC) participants completed the MASC. Individuals with schizophrenia showed large impairments compared to HC for all MASC scores, except overmentalizing errors. Hierarchical regression analyses with the six different MASC scores as dependent variables revealed that MCCB was a significant predictor of all MASC scores, explaining 8-18% of the variance. EmoBio increased the explained variance significantly, to 17-28%, except for overmentalizing errors. PANSS excited symptoms increased explained variance for total ToM, affective ToM and no mentalizing errors. Both social and non-social cognition were significant predictors of ToM. Overmentalizing was only predicted by non-social cognition. Excited symptoms contributed to overall and affective ToM, and to no mentalizing errors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of drivers in urban intersections.

PubMed

Gstalter, Herbert; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

2010-01-01

The concept of human reliability has been widely used in industrial settings by human factors experts to optimise the person-task fit. Reliability is estimated by the probability that a task will successfully be completed by personnel in a given stage of system operation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a technique used to calculate human error probabilities as the ratio of errors committed to the number of opportunities for that error. To transfer this notion to the measurement of car driver reliability the following components are necessary: a taxonomy of driving tasks, a definition of correct behaviour in each of these tasks, a list of errors as deviations from the correct actions and an adequate observation method to register errors and opportunities for these errors. Use of the SAFE-task analysis procedure recently made it possible to derive driver errors directly from the normative analysis of behavioural requirements. Driver reliability estimates could be used to compare groups of tasks (e.g. different types of intersections with their respective regulations) as well as groups of drivers' or individual drivers' aptitudes. This approach was tested in a field study with 62 drivers of different age groups. The subjects drove an instrumented car and had to complete an urban test route, the main features of which were 18 intersections representing six different driving tasks. The subjects were accompanied by two trained observers who recorded driver errors using standardized observation sheets. Results indicate that error indices often vary between both the age group of drivers and the type of driving task. The highest error indices occurred in the non-signalised intersection tasks and the roundabout, which exactly equals the corresponding ratings of task complexity from the SAFE analysis. A comparison of age groups clearly shows the disadvantage of older drivers, whose error indices in nearly all tasks are significantly higher than those of the other groups. The vast majority of these errors could be explained by high task load in the intersections, as they represent difficult tasks. The discussion shows how reliability estimates can be used in a constructive way to propose changes in car design, intersection layout and regulation as well as driver training.

Effect of Static Strains on Diffusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girifalco, L. A.; Grimes, H. H.

1961-01-01

A theory is developed that gives the diffusion coefficient in strained systems as an exponential function of the strain. This theory starts with the statistical theory of the atomic jump frequency as developed by Vineyard. The parameter determining the effect of strain on diffusion is related to the changes in the inter-atomic forces with strain. Comparison of the theory with published experimental results for the effect of pressure on diffusion shows that the experiments agree with the form of the theoretical equation in all cases within experimental error.

A reinforcement learning model of joy, distress, hope and fear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broekens, Joost; Jacobs, Elmer; Jonker, Catholijn M.

2015-07-01

In this paper we computationally study the relation between adaptive behaviour and emotion. Using the reinforcement learning framework, we propose that learned state utility, ?, models fear (negative) and hope (positive) based on the fact that both signals are about anticipation of loss or gain. Further, we propose that joy/distress is a signal similar to the error signal. We present agent-based simulation experiments that show that this model replicates psychological and behavioural dynamics of emotion. This work distinguishes itself by assessing the dynamics of emotion in an adaptive agent framework - coupling it to the literature on habituation, development, extinction and hope theory. Our results support the idea that the function of emotion is to provide a complex feedback signal for an organism to adapt its behaviour. Our work is relevant for understanding the relation between emotion and adaptation in animals, as well as for human-robot interaction, in particular how emotional signals can be used to communicate between adaptive agents and humans.

Graph Learning in Knowledge Bases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, Sean; Wang, Daisy Zhe

The amount of text data has been growing exponentially in recent years, giving rise to automatic information extraction methods that store text annotations in a database. The current state-of-theart structured prediction methods, however, are likely to contain errors and it’s important to be able to manage the overall uncertainty of the database. On the other hand, the advent of crowdsourcing has enabled humans to aid machine algorithms at scale. As part of this project we introduced pi-CASTLE , a system that optimizes and integrates human and machine computing as applied to a complex structured prediction problem involving conditional random fieldsmore » (CRFs). We proposed strategies grounded in information theory to select a token subset, formulate questions for the crowd to label, and integrate these labelings back into the database using a method of constrained inference. On both a text segmentation task over academic citations and a named entity recognition task over tweets we showed an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy gain over baseline methods.« less

Safety coaches in radiology: decreasing human error and minimizing patient harm.

PubMed

Dickerson, Julie M; Koch, Bernadette L; Adams, Janet M; Goodfriend, Martha A; Donnelly, Lane F

2010-09-01

Successful programs to improve patient safety require a component aimed at improving safety culture and environment, resulting in a reduced number of human errors that could lead to patient harm. Safety coaching provides peer accountability. It involves observing for safety behaviors and use of error prevention techniques and provides immediate feedback. For more than a decade, behavior-based safety coaching has been a successful strategy for reducing error within the context of occupational safety in industry. We describe the use of safety coaches in radiology. Safety coaches are an important component of our comprehensive patient safety program.

Error-associated behaviors and error rates for robotic geology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Robert C.; Thomas, Geb; Wagner, Jacob; Glasgow, Justin

2004-01-01

This study explores human error as a function of the decision-making process. One of many models for human decision-making is Rasmussen's decision ladder [9]. The decision ladder identifies the multiple tasks and states of knowledge involved in decision-making. The tasks and states of knowledge can be classified by the level of cognitive effort required to make the decision, leading to the skill, rule, and knowledge taxonomy (Rasmussen, 1987). Skill based decisions require the least cognitive effort and knowledge based decisions require the greatest cognitive effort. Errors can occur at any of the cognitive levels.

Procedural error monitoring and smart checklists

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Everett

1990-01-01

Human beings make and usually detect errors routinely. The same mental processes that allow humans to cope with novel problems can also lead to error. Bill Rouse has argued that errors are not inherently bad but their consequences may be. He proposes the development of error-tolerant systems that detect errors and take steps to prevent the consequences of the error from occurring. Research should be done on self and automatic detection of random and unanticipated errors. For self detection, displays should be developed that make the consequences of errors immediately apparent. For example, electronic map displays graphically show the consequences of horizontal flight plan entry errors. Vertical profile displays should be developed to make apparent vertical flight planning errors. Other concepts such as energy circles could also help the crew detect gross flight planning errors. For automatic detection, systems should be developed that can track pilot activity, infer pilot intent and inform the crew of potential errors before their consequences are realized. Systems that perform a reasonableness check on flight plan modifications by checking route length and magnitude of course changes are simple examples. Another example would be a system that checked the aircraft's planned altitude against a data base of world terrain elevations. Information is given in viewgraph form.

Human Capital, (Human) Capabilities and Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Le Grange, L.

2011-01-01

In this article I initiate a debate into the (de)merits of human capital theory and human capability theory and discuss implications of the debate for higher education. Human capital theory holds that economic growth depends on investment in education and that economic growth is the basis for improving the quality of human life. Human capable…

[Description of clinical thinking by the dual-process theory].

PubMed

Peña G, Luis

2012-06-01

Clinical thinking is a very complex process that can be described by the dual-process theory, it has an intuitive part (that recognizes patterns) and an analytical part (that tests hypotheses). It is vulnerable to cognitive bias that professionals must be aware of, to minimize diagnostic errors.

Misconduct in the Prosecution of Severe Crimes: Theory and Experimental Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucas, Jeffrey W.; Graif, Corina; Lovaglia, Michael J.

2006-01-01

Prosecutorial misconduct involves the intentional use of illegal or improper methods for attaining convictions against defendants in criminal trials. Previous research documented extensive errors in the prosecution of severe crimes. A theory formulated to explain this phenomenon proposes that in serious cases, increased pressure to convict…

Probability Theory, Not the Very Guide of Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Hakan; Winman, Anders

2009-01-01

Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive…

A circadian rhythm in skill-based errors in aviation maintenance.

PubMed

Hobbs, Alan; Williamson, Ann; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2010-07-01

In workplaces where activity continues around the clock, human error has been observed to exhibit a circadian rhythm, with a characteristic peak in the early hours of the morning. Errors are commonly distinguished by the nature of the underlying cognitive failure, particularly the level of intentionality involved in the erroneous action. The Skill-Rule-Knowledge (SRK) framework of Rasmussen is used widely in the study of industrial errors and accidents. The SRK framework describes three fundamental types of error, according to whether behavior is under the control of practiced sensori-motor skill routines with minimal conscious awareness; is guided by implicit or explicit rules or expertise; or where the planning of actions requires the conscious application of domain knowledge. Up to now, examinations of circadian patterns of industrial errors have not distinguished between different types of error. Consequently, it is not clear whether all types of error exhibit the same circadian rhythm. A survey was distributed to aircraft maintenance personnel in Australia. Personnel were invited to anonymously report a safety incident and were prompted to describe, in detail, the human involvement (if any) that contributed to it. A total of 402 airline maintenance personnel reported an incident, providing 369 descriptions of human error in which the time of the incident was reported and sufficient detail was available to analyze the error. Errors were categorized using a modified version of the SRK framework, in which errors are categorized as skill-based, rule-based, or knowledge-based, or as procedure violations. An independent check confirmed that the SRK framework had been applied with sufficient consistency and reliability. Skill-based errors were the most common form of error, followed by procedure violations, rule-based errors, and knowledge-based errors. The frequency of errors was adjusted for the estimated proportion of workers present at work/each hour of the day, and the 24 h pattern of each error type was examined. Skill-based errors exhibited a significant circadian rhythm, being most prevalent in the early hours of the morning. Variation in the frequency of rule-based errors, knowledge-based errors, and procedure violations over the 24 h did not reach statistical significance. The results suggest that during the early hours of the morning, maintenance technicians are at heightened risk of "absent minded" errors involving failures to execute action plans as intended.

Monitoring in Language Perception: Mild and Strong Conflicts Elicit Different ERP Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Meerendonk, Nan; Kolk, Herman H. J.; Vissers, Constance Th. W. M.; Chwilla, Dorothee J.

2010-01-01

In the language domain, most studies of error monitoring have been devoted to language production. However, in language perception, errors are made as well and we are able to detect them. According to the monitoring theory of language perception, a strong conflict between what is expected and what is observed triggers reanalysis to check for…

Standard Error Estimation of 3PL IRT True Score Equating with an MCMC Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Yuming; Schulz, E. Matthew; Yu, Lei

2008-01-01

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and a bootstrap method were compared in the estimation of standard errors of item response theory (IRT) true score equating. Three test form relationships were examined: parallel, tau-equivalent, and congeneric. Data were simulated based on Reading Comprehension and Vocabulary tests of the Iowa Tests of…

Central Coherence Theory and the Interpretation of Picture Materials: Toward an Assessment of Autistic Spectrum Disorder.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Worth, Sarah

2003-01-01

This study compared responses of 16 pupils either with or without autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) and matched for gender and verbal ability. Subjects' responses to various pictures were categorized. Results suggested errors made by the two groups differed both quantitatively and qualitatively. Errors made by pupils with ASD were largely…

Crop area estimation based on remotely-sensed data with an accurate but costly subsample

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gunst, R. F.

1983-01-01

Alternatives to sampling-theory stratified and regression estimators of crop production and timber biomass were examined. An alternative estimator which is viewed as especially promising is the errors-in-variable regression estimator. Investigations established the need for caution with this estimator when the ratio of two error variances is not precisely known.

Random Error in Judgment: The Contribution of Encoding and Retrieval Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pleskac, Timothy J.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Rivadeneira, A. Walkyria; Wallsten, Thomas S.

2009-01-01

Theories of confidence judgments have embraced the role random error plays in influencing responses. An important next step is to identify the source(s) of these random effects. To do so, we used the stochastic judgment model (SJM) to distinguish the contribution of encoding and retrieval processes. In particular, we investigated whether dividing…

Standard Errors of Estimated Latent Variable Scores with Estimated Structural Parameters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoshino, Takahiro; Shigemasu, Kazuo

2008-01-01

The authors propose a concise formula to evaluate the standard error of the estimated latent variable score when the true values of the structural parameters are not known and must be estimated. The formula can be applied to factor scores in factor analysis or ability parameters in item response theory, without bootstrap or Markov chain Monte…

A Systematic Approach for Identifying Level-1 Error Covariance Structures in Latent Growth Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ding, Cherng G.; Jane, Ten-Der; Wu, Chiu-Hui; Lin, Hang-Rung; Shen, Chih-Kang

2017-01-01

It has been pointed out in the literature that misspecification of the level-1 error covariance structure in latent growth modeling (LGM) has detrimental impacts on the inferences about growth parameters. Since correct covariance structure is difficult to specify by theory, the identification needs to rely on a specification search, which,…

Senior High School Students' Errors on the Use of Relative Words

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bao, Xiaoli

2015-01-01

Relative clause is one of the most important language points in College English Examination. Teachers have been attaching great importance to the teaching of relative clause, but the outcomes are not satisfactory. Based on Error Analysis theory, this article aims to explore the reasons why senior high school students find it difficult to choose…

Human Purposive Movement Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

theory and provides examples of developmental and operational technologies that could use this theory in common settings. 15. SUBJECT TERMS human ... activity , prediction of behavior, human algorithms purposive movement theory 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18

Developing a new experimental system for an undergraduate laboratory exercise to teach theories of visuomotor learning.

PubMed

Kasuga, Shoko; Ushiba, Junichi

2014-01-01

Humans have a flexible motor ability to adapt their movements to changes in the internal/external environment. For example, using arm-reaching tasks, a number of studies experimentally showed that participants adapt to a novel visuomotor environment. These results helped develop computational models of motor learning implemented in the central nervous system. Despite the importance of such experimental paradigms for exploring the mechanisms of motor learning, because of the cost and preparation time, most students are unable to participate in such experiments. Therefore, in the current study, to help students better understand motor learning theories, we developed a simple finger-reaching experimental system using commonly used laptop PC components with an open-source programming language (Processing Motor Learning Toolkit: PMLT). We found that compared to a commercially available robotic arm-reaching device, our PMLT accomplished similar learning goals (difference in the error reduction between the devices, P = 0.10). In addition, consistent with previous reports from visuomotor learning studies, the participants showed after-effects indicating an adaptation of the motor learning system. The results suggest that PMLT can serve as a new experimental system for an undergraduate laboratory exercise of motor learning theories with minimal time and cost for instructors.

Spatial durbin error model for human development index in Province of Central Java.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Septiawan, A. R.; Handajani, S. S.; Martini, T. S.

2018-05-01

The Human Development Index (HDI) is an indicator used to measure success in building the quality of human life, explaining how people access development outcomes when earning income, health and education. Every year HDI in Central Java has improved to a better direction. In 2016, HDI in Central Java was 69.98 %, an increase of 0.49 % over the previous year. The objective of this study was to apply the spatial Durbin error model using angle weights queen contiguity to measure HDI in Central Java Province. Spatial Durbin error model is used because the model overcomes the spatial effect of errors and the effects of spatial depedency on the independent variable. Factors there use is life expectancy, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and purchasing power parity. Based on the result of research, we get spatial Durbin error model for HDI in Central Java with influencing factors are life expectancy, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and purchasing power parity.

Nonlinear growth of zonal flows by secondary instability in general magnetic geometry

DOE PAGES

Plunk, G. G.; Navarro, A. Banon

2017-02-23

Here we present a theory of the nonlinear growth of zonal flows in magnetized plasma turbulence, by the mechanism of secondary instability. The theory is derived for general magnetic geometry, and is thus applicable to both tokamaks and stellarators. The predicted growth rate is shown to compare favorably with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations, with the error scaling as expected with the small parameter of the theory.

Critical Analysis of the Mathematical Formalism of Theoretical Physics. V. Foundations of the Theory of Negative Numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalanov, Temur Z.

2015-04-01

Analysis of the foundations of the theory of negative numbers is proposed. The unity of formal logic and of rational dialectics is methodological basis of the analysis. Statement of the problem is as follows. As is known, point O in the Cartesian coordinate system XOY determines the position of zero on the scale. The number ``zero'' belongs to both the scale of positive numbers and the scale of negative numbers. In this case, the following formallogical contradiction arises: the number 0 is both positive number and negative number; or, equivalently, the number 0 is neither positive number nor negative number, i.e. number 0 has no sign. Then the following question arises: Do negative numbers exist in science and practice? A detailed analysis of the problem shows that negative numbers do not exist because the foundations of the theory of negative numbers contrary to the formal-logical laws. It is proved that: (a) all numbers have no signs; (b) the concepts ``negative number'' and ``negative sign of number'' represent a formallogical error; (c) signs ``plus'' and ``minus'' are only symbols of mathematical operations. The logical errors determine the essence of the theory of negative numbers: the theory of negative number is a false theory.

Touchscreen-paradigm for mice reveals cross-species evidence for an antagonistic relationship of cognitive flexibility and stability

PubMed Central

Richter, S. Helene; Vogel, Anne S.; Ueltzhöffer, Kai; Muzzillo, Chiara; Vogt, Miriam A.; Lankisch, Katja; Armbruster-Genç, Diana J. N.; Riva, Marco A.; Fiebach, Christian J.; Gass, Peter; Vollmayr, Barbara

2014-01-01

The abilities to either flexibly adjust behavior according to changing demands (cognitive flexibility) or to maintain it in the face of potential distractors (cognitive stability) are critical for adaptive behavior in many situations. Recently, a novel human paradigm has found individual differences of cognitive flexibility and stability to be related to common prefrontal networks. The aims of the present study were, first, to translate this paradigm from humans to mice and, second, to test conceptual predictions of a computational model of prefrontal working memory mechanisms, the Dual State Theory, which assumes an antagonistic relation between cognitive flexibility and stability. Mice were trained in a touchscreen-paradigm to discriminate visual cues. The task involved “ongoing” and cued “switch” trials. In addition distractor cues were interspersed to test the ability to resist distraction, and an ambiguous condition assessed the spontaneous switching between two possible responses without explicit cues. While response times did not differ substantially between conditions, error rates (ER) increased from the “ongoing” baseline condition to the most complex condition, where subjects were required to switch between two responses in the presence of a distracting cue. Importantly, subjects switching more often spontaneously were found to be more distractible by task irrelevant cues, but also more flexible in situations, where switching was required. These results support a dichotomy of cognitive flexibility and stability as predicted by the Dual State Theory. Furthermore, they replicate critical aspects of the human paradigm, which indicates the translational potential of the testing procedure and supports the use of touchscreen procedures in preclinical animal research. PMID:24834036

Hierarchical learning induces two simultaneous, but separable, prediction errors in human basal ganglia.

PubMed

Diuk, Carlos; Tsai, Karin; Wallis, Jonathan; Botvinick, Matthew; Niv, Yael

2013-03-27

Studies suggest that dopaminergic neurons report a unitary, global reward prediction error signal. However, learning in complex real-life tasks, in particular tasks that show hierarchical structure, requires multiple prediction errors that may coincide in time. We used functional neuroimaging to measure prediction error signals in humans performing such a hierarchical task involving simultaneous, uncorrelated prediction errors. Analysis of signals in a priori anatomical regions of interest in the ventral striatum and the ventral tegmental area indeed evidenced two simultaneous, but separable, prediction error signals corresponding to the two levels of hierarchy in the task. This result suggests that suitably designed tasks may reveal a more intricate pattern of firing in dopaminergic neurons. Moreover, the need for downstream separation of these signals implies possible limitations on the number of different task levels that we can learn about simultaneously.

Sensitivity analysis of dynamic biological systems with time-delays.

PubMed

Wu, Wu Hsiung; Wang, Feng Sheng; Chang, Maw Shang

2010-10-15

Mathematical modeling has been applied to the study and analysis of complex biological systems for a long time. Some processes in biological systems, such as the gene expression and feedback control in signal transduction networks, involve a time delay. These systems are represented as delay differential equation (DDE) models. Numerical sensitivity analysis of a DDE model by the direct method requires the solutions of model and sensitivity equations with time-delays. The major effort is the computation of Jacobian matrix when computing the solution of sensitivity equations. The computation of partial derivatives of complex equations either by the analytic method or by symbolic manipulation is time consuming, inconvenient, and prone to introduce human errors. To address this problem, an automatic approach to obtain the derivatives of complex functions efficiently and accurately is necessary. We have proposed an efficient algorithm with an adaptive step size control to compute the solution and dynamic sensitivities of biological systems described by ordinal differential equations (ODEs). The adaptive direct-decoupled algorithm is extended to solve the solution and dynamic sensitivities of time-delay systems describing by DDEs. To save the human effort and avoid the human errors in the computation of partial derivatives, an automatic differentiation technique is embedded in the extended algorithm to evaluate the Jacobian matrix. The extended algorithm is implemented and applied to two realistic models with time-delays: the cardiovascular control system and the TNF-α signal transduction network. The results show that the extended algorithm is a good tool for dynamic sensitivity analysis on DDE models with less user intervention. By comparing with direct-coupled methods in theory, the extended algorithm is efficient, accurate, and easy to use for end users without programming background to do dynamic sensitivity analysis on complex biological systems with time-delays.

Mental representation of symbols as revealed by vocabulary errors in two bonobos (Pan paniscus).

PubMed

Lyn, Heidi

2007-10-01

Error analysis has been used in humans to detect implicit representations and categories in language use. The present study utilizes the same technique to report on mental representations and categories in symbol use from two bonobos (Pan paniscus). These bonobos have been shown in published reports to comprehend English at the level of a two-and-a-half year old child and to use a keyboard with over 200 visuographic symbols (lexigrams). In this study, vocabulary test errors from over 10 years of data revealed auditory, visual, and spatio-temporal generalizations (errors were more likely items that looked like sounded like, or were frequently associated with the sample item in space or in time), as well as hierarchical and conceptual categorizations. These error data, like those of humans, are a result of spontaneous responding rather than specific training and do not solely depend upon the sample mode (e.g. auditory similarity errors are not universally more frequent with an English sample, nor were visual similarity errors universally more frequent with a photograph sample). However, unlike humans, these bonobos do not make errors based on syntactical confusions (e.g. confusing semantically unrelated nouns), suggesting that they may not separate syntactical and semantic information. These data suggest that apes spontaneously create a complex, hierarchical, web of representations when exposed to a symbol system.

78 FR 11237 - Public Hearing

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-15

... management of human error in its operations and system safety programs, and the status of PTC implementation... UP's safety management policies and programs associated with human error, operational accident and... Chairman of the Board of Inquiry 2. Introduction of the Board of Inquiry and Technical Panel 3...

Error Analysis and Validation for Insar Height Measurement Induced by Slant Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Li, T.; Fan, W.; Geng, X.

2018-04-01

InSAR technique is an important method for large area DEM extraction. Several factors have significant influence on the accuracy of height measurement. In this research, the effect of slant range measurement for InSAR height measurement was analysis and discussed. Based on the theory of InSAR height measurement, the error propagation model was derived assuming no coupling among different factors, which directly characterise the relationship between slant range error and height measurement error. Then the theoretical-based analysis in combination with TanDEM-X parameters was implemented to quantitatively evaluate the influence of slant range error to height measurement. In addition, the simulation validation of InSAR error model induced by slant range was performed on the basis of SRTM DEM and TanDEM-X parameters. The spatial distribution characteristics and error propagation rule of InSAR height measurement were further discussed and evaluated.

Intravenous Chemotherapy Compounding Errors in a Follow-Up Pan-Canadian Observational Study.

PubMed

Gilbert, Rachel E; Kozak, Melissa C; Dobish, Roxanne B; Bourrier, Venetia C; Koke, Paul M; Kukreti, Vishal; Logan, Heather A; Easty, Anthony C; Trbovich, Patricia L

2018-05-01

Intravenous (IV) compounding safety has garnered recent attention as a result of high-profile incidents, awareness efforts from the safety community, and increasingly stringent practice standards. New research with more-sensitive error detection techniques continues to reinforce that error rates with manual IV compounding are unacceptably high. In 2014, our team published an observational study that described three types of previously unrecognized and potentially catastrophic latent chemotherapy preparation errors in Canadian oncology pharmacies that would otherwise be undetectable. We expand on this research and explore whether additional potential human failures are yet to be addressed by practice standards. Field observations were conducted in four cancer center pharmacies in four Canadian provinces from January 2013 to February 2015. Human factors specialists observed and interviewed pharmacy managers, oncology pharmacists, pharmacy technicians, and pharmacy assistants as they carried out their work. Emphasis was on latent errors (potential human failures) that could lead to outcomes such as wrong drug, dose, or diluent. Given the relatively short observational period, no active failures or actual errors were observed. However, 11 latent errors in chemotherapy compounding were identified. In terms of severity, all 11 errors create the potential for a patient to receive the wrong drug or dose, which in the context of cancer care, could lead to death or permanent loss of function. Three of the 11 practices were observed in our previous study, but eight were new. Applicable Canadian and international standards and guidelines do not explicitly address many of the potentially error-prone practices observed. We observed a significant degree of risk for error in manual mixing practice. These latent errors may exist in other regions where manual compounding of IV chemotherapy takes place. Continued efforts to advance standards, guidelines, technological innovation, and chemical quality testing are needed.

Estimating Bias Error Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Tian-Shu; Finley, Tom D.

2001-01-01

This paper formulates the general methodology for estimating the bias error distribution of a device in a measuring domain from less accurate measurements when a minimal number of standard values (typically two values) are available. A new perspective is that the bias error distribution can be found as a solution of an intrinsic functional equation in a domain. Based on this theory, the scaling- and translation-based methods for determining the bias error distribution arc developed. These methods are virtually applicable to any device as long as the bias error distribution of the device can be sufficiently described by a power series (a polynomial) or a Fourier series in a domain. These methods have been validated through computational simulations and laboratory calibration experiments for a number of different devices.

Disrupted prediction-error signal in psychosis: evidence for an associative account of delusions

PubMed Central

Corlett, P. R.; Murray, G. K.; Honey, G. D.; Aitken, M. R. F.; Shanks, D. R.; Robbins, T.W.; Bullmore, E.T.; Dickinson, A.; Fletcher, P. C.

2012-01-01

Delusions are maladaptive beliefs about the world. Based upon experimental evidence that prediction error—a mismatch between expectancy and outcome—drives belief formation, this study examined the possibility that delusions form because of disrupted prediction-error processing. We used fMRI to determine prediction-error-related brain responses in 12 healthy subjects and 12 individuals (7 males) with delusional beliefs. Frontal cortex responses in the patient group were suggestive of disrupted prediction-error processing. Furthermore, across subjects, the extent of disruption was significantly related to an individual’s propensity to delusion formation. Our results support a neurobiological theory of delusion formation that implicates aberrant prediction-error signalling, disrupted attentional allocation and associative learning in the formation of delusional beliefs. PMID:17690132

Evolution of fairness and coalition formation in three-person ultimatum games.

PubMed

Nishimura, Takeshi; Okada, Akira; Shirata, Yasuhiro

2017-05-07

We consider the evolution of fairness and coalition formation in a three-person ultimatum game in which the coalition value depends on its size. Traditional game theory, which assumes selfish and rational players, predicts the largest and efficient coalition with a proposer exploiting most of the total value. In a stochastic evolutionary model (the frequency-dependent Moran process with mutations) where players make errors in estimating the payoffs and strategies of others, evolutionary selection favors the formation of a two-person subcoalition under weak selection and in the low mutation limit if and only if its coalition value exceeds a high proportion (0.7) of that of the largest coalition. Proposers offer 30-35% of the subcoalition value to a coalition member, excluding a non-member. Multilateral bargaining is critically different from the bilateral one. Coalition-forming behavior may cause economic inefficiency and social exclusion. Stochastic evolutionary game theory thus provides theoretical support to explain the behavior of human subjects in economic experiments of a three-person ultimatum game. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attending unintended transformations of health care infrastructure

PubMed Central

Wentzer, Helle; Bygholm, Ann

2007-01-01

Introduction Western health care is under pressure from growing demands on quality and efficiency. The development and implementation of information technology, IT is a key mean of health care authorities to improve on health care infrastructure. Theory and methods Against a background of theories on human-computer interaction and IT-mediated communication, different empirical studies of IT implementation in health care are analyzed. The outcome is an analytical discernment between different relations of communication and levels of interaction with IT in health care infrastructure. These relations and levels are synthesized into a framework for identifying tensions and potential problems in the mediation of health care with the IT system. These problems are also known as unexpected adverse consequences, UACs, from IT implementation into clinical health care practices. Results This paper develops a conceptual framework for addressing transformations of communication and workflow in health care as a result of implementing IT. Conclusion and discussion The purpose of the conceptual framework is to support the attention to and continuous screening for errors and unintended consequences of IT implementation into health care practices and outcomes. PMID:18043725

Determination and error analysis of emittance and spectral emittance measurements by remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Kumar, R.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. From the theory of remote sensing of surface temperatures, an equation of the upper bound of absolute error of emittance was determined. It showed that the absolute error decreased with an increase in contact temperature, whereas, it increased with an increase in environmental integrated radiant flux density. Change in emittance had little effect on the absolute error. A plot of the difference between temperature and band radiance temperature vs. emittance was provided for the wavelength intervals: 4.5 to 5.5 microns, 8 to 13.5 microns, and 10.2 to 12.5 microns.

Spacecraft and propulsion technician error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Daniel Clyde

Commercial aviation and commercial space similarly launch, fly, and land passenger vehicles. Unlike aviation, the U.S. government has not established maintenance policies for commercial space. This study conducted a mixed methods review of 610 U.S. space launches from 1984 through 2011, which included 31 failures. An analysis of the failure causal factors showed that human error accounted for 76% of those failures, which included workmanship error accounting for 29% of the failures. With the imminent future of commercial space travel, the increased potential for the loss of human life demands that changes be made to the standardized procedures, training, and certification to reduce human error and failure rates. Several recommendations were made by this study to the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation, space launch vehicle operators, and maintenance technician schools in an effort to increase the safety of the space transportation passengers.

Charles Brenner: a practitioner's theorist.

PubMed

Friedman, Lawrence

2011-08-01

To avoid certain errors in practice, Charles Brenner offered an holistic substitute for the Freudian structural model of the mind. He used the term compromise formation ambiguously to refer to both actions and states, so as to render unnecessary what he considered artificial, judgmental attitudes embodied in images of psychic structures. He believed that a theory of conflicting structures transforms the phenomenological drama of the patient's actual life-world into an artificial drama of contending intrapsychic parties that may reflect the analyst's values. According to Brenner, the meaning of life, with its desires, fears, and regrets, is structured forever in the first articulation of the family drama, and that is all the structure a practitioner should have in mind. In principle, the ambiguity of the term compromise formation allows for observed continuities in human life, and might have inspired an ambitious theoretician to exploit that option for an account of character, but that aspect of theory moves in a direction opposite to Brenner's practical mission. For the same practical reason Brenner refused to acknowledge gradations of mental operation, such as differences in maturity, or style or level of thinking, so the theory cannot say how change can take place, analytic or otherwise. These lacunae in theory were unblinkingly (if implicitly) accepted in pursuit of Brenner's goal, which was not to polish up theory but to cleanse the analyst's mind of concepts that subtly interfere with the essential nondirectiveness of treatment. His theoretical minimalism and exclusive concern with practical consequences can be recognized as a peculiarly North American attitude to psychoanalysis.

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 1005.23 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Harmless error. 1005.23 Section 1005.23 Public Health OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL-HEALTH CARE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OIG AUTHORITIES APPEALS OF EXCLUSIONS, CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES AND ASSESSMENTS § 1005.23 Harmless error. No error in either...

42 CFR 3.552 - Harmless error.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Harmless error. 3.552 Section 3.552 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL PROVISIONS PATIENT SAFETY ORGANIZATIONS AND PATIENT SAFETY WORK PRODUCT Enforcement Program § 3.552 Harmless error. No error in either the...

45 CFR 98.100 - Error Rate Report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Error Rate Report. 98.100 Section 98.100 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.100 Error Rate Report. (a) Applicability—The requirements of this subpart...

45 CFR 98.100 - Error Rate Report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Error Rate Report. 98.100 Section 98.100 Public Welfare Department of Health and Human Services GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.100 Error Rate Report. (a) Applicability—The requirements of this subpart...

45 CFR 98.100 - Error Rate Report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Error Rate Report. 98.100 Section 98.100 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.100 Error Rate Report. (a) Applicability—The requirements of this subpart...

45 CFR 98.100 - Error Rate Report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Error Rate Report. 98.100 Section 98.100 Public Welfare DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL ADMINISTRATION CHILD CARE AND DEVELOPMENT FUND Error Rate Reporting § 98.100 Error Rate Report. (a) Applicability—The requirements of this subpart...

Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) Raster-to-Vector Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-11-30

model) to pinpoint critical deficiencies and understand trade-offs between alternative solutions. This may be exemplified by the allocation of human ...process, prone to errors (i.e., human operator eye/motor control limitations), and its time consuming nature (as a function of data density). It should...achieved through the facilities of coinputer interactive graphics. Each error or anomaly is individually identified by a human operator and corrected

Error-compensation model for simultaneous measurement of five degrees of freedom motion errors of a rotary axis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Chuanchen; Li, Jiakun; Feng, Qibo; Zhang, Bin

2018-07-01

This paper introduces an error-compensation model for our measurement method to measure five motion errors of a rotary axis based on fibre laser collimation. The error-compensation model is established in a matrix form using the homogeneous coordinate transformation theory. The influences of the installation errors, error crosstalk, and manufacturing errors are analysed. The model is verified by both ZEMAX simulation and measurement experiments. The repeatability values of the radial and axial motion errors are significantly suppressed by more than 50% after compensation. The repeatability experiments of five degrees of freedom motion errors and the comparison experiments of two degrees of freedom motion errors of an indexing table were performed by our measuring device and a standard instrument. The results show that the repeatability values of the angular positioning error ε z and tilt motion error around the Y axis ε y are 1.2″ and 4.4″, and the comparison deviations of the two motion errors are 4.0″ and 4.4″, respectively. The repeatability values of the radial and axial motion errors, δ y and δ z , are 1.3 and 0.6 µm, respectively. The repeatability value of the tilt motion error around the X axis ε x is 3.8″.

Mathematical and field analysis of longitudinal reservoir infill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, W. T.; Capart, H.

2016-12-01

In reservoirs, severe problems are caused by infilled sediment deposits. In long term, the sediment accumulation reduces the capacity of reservoir storage and flood control benefits. In the short term, the sediment deposits influence the intakes of water-supply and hydroelectricity generation. For the management of reservoir, it is important to understand the deposition process and then to predict the sedimentation in reservoir. To investigate the behaviors of sediment deposits, we propose a one-dimensional simplified theory derived by the Exner equation to predict the longitudinal sedimentation distribution in idealized reservoirs. The theory models the reservoir infill geomorphic actions for three scenarios: delta progradation, near-dam bottom deposition, and final infill. These yield three kinds of self-similar analytical solutions for the reservoir bed profiles, under different boundary conditions. Three analytical solutions are composed by error function, complementary error function, and imaginary error function, respectively. The theory is also computed by finite volume method to test the analytical solutions. The theoretical and numerical predictions are in good agreement with one-dimensional small-scale laboratory experiment. As the theory is simple to apply with analytical solutions and numerical computation, we propose some applications to simulate the long-profile evolution of field reservoirs and focus on the infill sediment deposit volume resulting the uplift of near-dam bottom elevation. These field reservoirs introduced here are Wushe Reservoir, Tsengwen Reservoir, Mudan Reservoir in Taiwan, Lago Dos Bocas in Puerto Rico, and Sakuma Dam in Japan.

Causal Evidence from Humans for the Role of Mediodorsal Nucleus of the Thalamus in Working Memory.

PubMed

Peräkylä, Jari; Sun, Lihua; Lehtimäki, Kai; Peltola, Jukka; Öhman, Juha; Möttönen, Timo; Ogawa, Keith H; Hartikainen, Kaisa M

2017-12-01

The mediodorsal nucleus of the thalamus (MD), with its extensive connections to the lateral pFC, has been implicated in human working memory and executive functions. However, this understanding is based solely on indirect evidence from human lesion and imaging studies and animal studies. Direct, causal evidence from humans is missing. To obtain direct evidence for MD's role in humans, we studied patients treated with deep brain stimulation (DBS) for refractory epilepsy. This treatment is thought to prevent the generalization of a seizure by disrupting the functioning of the patient's anterior nuclei of the thalamus (ANT) with high-frequency electric stimulation. This structure is located superior and anterior to MD, and when the DBS lead is implanted in ANT, tip contacts of the lead typically penetrate through ANT into the adjoining MD. To study the role of MD in human executive functions and working memory, we periodically disrupted and recovered MD's function with high-frequency electric stimulation using DBS contacts reaching MD while participants performed a cognitive task engaging several aspects of executive functions. We hypothesized that the efficacy of executive functions, specifically working memory, is impaired when the functioning of MD is perturbed by high-frequency stimulation. Eight participants treated with ANT-DBS for refractory epilepsy performed a computer-based test of executive functions while DBS was repeatedly switched ON and OFF at MD and at the control location (ANT). In comparison to stimulation of the control location, when MD was stimulated, participants committed 2.26 times more errors in general (total errors; OR = 2.26, 95% CI [1.69, 3.01]) and 2.86 times more working memory-related errors specifically (incorrect button presses; OR = 2.88, CI [1.95, 4.24]). Similarly, participants committed 1.81 more errors in general ( OR = 1.81, CI [1.45, 2.24]) and 2.08 times more working memory-related errors ( OR = 2.08, CI [1.57, 2.75]) in comparison to no stimulation condition. "Total errors" is a composite score consisting of basic error types and was mostly driven by working memory-related errors. The facts that MD and a control location, ANT, are only few millimeters away from each other and that their stimulation produces very different results highlight the location-specific effect of DBS rather than regionally unspecific general effect. In conclusion, disrupting and recovering MD's function with high-frequency electric stimulation modulated participants' online working memory performance providing causal, in vivo evidence from humans for the role of MD in human working memory.

A Method for the Study of Human Factors in Aircraft Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnhart, W.; Billings, C.; Cooper, G.; Gilstrap, R.; Lauber, J.; Orlady, H.; Puskas, B.; Stephens, W.

1975-01-01

A method for the study of human factors in the aviation environment is described. A conceptual framework is provided within which pilot and other human errors in aircraft operations may be studied with the intent of finding out how, and why, they occurred. An information processing model of human behavior serves as the basis for the acquisition and interpretation of information relating to occurrences which involve human error. A systematic method of collecting such data is presented and discussed. The classification of the data is outlined.

An interactive framework for acquiring vision models of 3-D objects from 2-D images.

PubMed

Motai, Yuichi; Kak, Avinash

2004-02-01

This paper presents a human-computer interaction (HCI) framework for building vision models of three-dimensional (3-D) objects from their two-dimensional (2-D) images. Our framework is based on two guiding principles of HCI: 1) provide the human with as much visual assistance as possible to help the human make a correct input; and 2) verify each input provided by the human for its consistency with the inputs previously provided. For example, when stereo correspondence information is elicited from a human, his/her job is facilitated by superimposing epipolar lines on the images. Although that reduces the possibility of error in the human marked correspondences, such errors are not entirely eliminated because there can be multiple candidate points close together for complex objects. For another example, when pose-to-pose correspondence is sought from a human, his/her job is made easier by allowing the human to rotate the partial model constructed in the previous pose in relation to the partial model for the current pose. While this facility reduces the incidence of human-supplied pose-to-pose correspondence errors, such errors cannot be eliminated entirely because of confusion created when multiple candidate features exist close together. Each input provided by the human is therefore checked against the previous inputs by invoking situation-specific constraints. Different types of constraints (and different human-computer interaction protocols) are needed for the extraction of polygonal features and for the extraction of curved features. We will show results on both polygonal objects and object containing curved features.

["Second victim" - error, crises and how to get out of it].

PubMed

von Laue, N; Schwappach, D; Hochreutener, M

2012-06-01

Medical errors do not only harm patients ("first victims"). Almost all health care professionals become a so-called "second victim" once in their career by being involved in a medical error. Studies show that error involvement can have a tremendous impact on health care workers leading to burnout, depression and professional crisis. Moreover persons involved in errors show a decline in job performance and jeopardize therefore patient safety. Blaming the person is one of the typical psychological reactions after an error happened as the attribution theory tells. The self-esteem gets stabilized if we can put blame on someone and pick out a scapegoat. But standing alone makes the emotional situation even worse. A vicious circle can evolve with tragic effect for the individual and negative implications for patient safety and the health care setting.

New methodology to reconstruct in 2-D the cuspal enamel of modern human lower molars.

PubMed

Modesto-Mata, Mario; García-Campos, Cecilia; Martín-Francés, Laura; Martínez de Pinillos, Marina; García-González, Rebeca; Quintino, Yuliet; Canals, Antoni; Lozano, Marina; Dean, M Christopher; Martinón-Torres, María; Bermúdez de Castro, José María

2017-08-01

In the last years different methodologies have been developed to reconstruct worn teeth. In this article, we propose a new 2-D methodology to reconstruct the worn enamel of lower molars. Our main goals are to reconstruct molars with a high level of accuracy when measuring relevant histological variables and to validate the methodology calculating the errors associated with the measurements. This methodology is based on polynomial regression equations, and has been validated using two different dental variables: cuspal enamel thickness and crown height of the protoconid. In order to perform the validation process, simulated worn modern human molars were employed. The associated errors of the measurements were also estimated applying methodologies previously proposed by other authors. The mean percentage error estimated in reconstructed molars for these two variables in comparison with their own real values is -2.17% for the cuspal enamel thickness of the protoconid and -3.18% for the crown height of the protoconid. This error significantly improves the results of other methodologies, both in the interobserver error and in the accuracy of the measurements. The new methodology based on polynomial regressions can be confidently applied to the reconstruction of cuspal enamel of lower molars, as it improves the accuracy of the measurements and reduces the interobserver error. The present study shows that it is important to validate all methodologies in order to know the associated errors. This new methodology can be easily exportable to other modern human populations, the human fossil record and forensic sciences. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor A.; Munoz, Cesar A.

2007-01-01

This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.

Data Visualization of Item-Total Correlation by Median Smoothing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Chong Ho; Douglas, Samantha; Lee, Anna; An, Min

2016-01-01

This paper aims to illustrate how data visualization could be utilized to identify errors prior to modeling, using an example with multi-dimensional item response theory (MIRT). MIRT combines item response theory and factor analysis to identify a psychometric model that investigates two or more latent traits. While it may seem convenient to…

Applying Generalizability Theory To Evaluate Treatment Effect in Single-Subject Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefebvre, Daniel J.; Suen, Hoi K.

An empirical investigation of methodological issues associated with evaluating treatment effect in single-subject research (SSR) designs is presented. This investigation: (1) conducted a generalizability (G) study to identify the sources of systematic and random measurement error (SRME); (2) used an analytic approach based on G theory to integrate…

The Effects of Reflective Activities on Skill Adaptation in a Work-Related Instrumental Learning Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roessger, Kevin M.

2014-01-01

In work-related instrumental learning contexts, the role of reflective activities is unclear. Kolb's experiential learning theory and Mezirow's transformative learning theory predict skill adaptation as an outcome. This prediction was tested by manipulating reflective activities and assessing participants' response and error rates during novel…

Large Sample Confidence Intervals for Item Response Theory Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersson, Björn; Xin, Tao

2018-01-01

In applications of item response theory (IRT), an estimate of the reliability of the ability estimates or sum scores is often reported. However, analytical expressions for the standard errors of the estimators of the reliability coefficients are not available in the literature and therefore the variability associated with the estimated reliability…

A Survey of Progress in Coding Theory in the Soviet Union. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kautz, William H.; Levitt, Karl N.

The results of a comprehensive technical survey of all published Soviet literature in coding theory and its applications--over 400 papers and books appearing before March 1967--are described in this report. Noteworthy Soviet contributions are discussed, including codes for the noiseless channel, codes that correct asymetric errors, decoding for…

Individual differences in political ideology are effects of adaptive error management.

PubMed

Petersen, Michael Bang; Aarøe, Lene

2014-06-01

We apply error management theory to the analysis of individual differences in the negativity bias and political ideology. Using principles from evolutionary psychology, we propose a coherent theoretical framework for understanding (1) why individuals differ in their political ideology and (2) the conditions under which these individual differences influence and fail to influence the political choices people make.