Monograph for using paleoflood data in Water Resources Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, R.E.; Jarrett, R.D.

2004-01-01

The Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) Technical Committee on Surface Water Hydrology is sponsoring a Task Committee on Paleoflood Hydrology to prepare a monograph entitled, "Use of Paleoflood and Historical Data in Water Resources Applications." This paper introduces the subject of paleoflood hydrology and discusses the topics, which are expected to be included in the monograph. The procedure for preparing and reviewing the monograph will also be discussed. The paleoflood hydrology monograph will include a discussion of types of hydrologic and paleoflood data, paleostage indicators, flood chronology, modeling methods, interpretation issues, water resources applications and case studies, and research needs. Paleoflood data collection and analysis techniques will be presented, and various applications in water-resources investigations will be provided. An overview of several flood frequency analysis approaches, which consider historical and paleoflood data along with systematic streamflow records, will be presented. The monograph is scheduled for completion and publication in 2001. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

2016-04-01

Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.

2015-12-01

In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Flood Frequency Analysis for Transportation Design

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Planning for construction of roads and bridges over rivers or floodplains includes a hydrologic analysis of rainfall amount and intensity : for a defined period. Infrastructure design must be based on accurate rainfall estimates how much (intensi...

Temporal-spatial evolution of the hydrologic drought characteristics of the karst drainage basins in South China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhonghua; Liang, Hong; Yang, Chaohui; Huang, Fasu; Zeng, Xinbo

2018-02-01

Hydrologic drought, as a typical natural phenomenon in the context of global climate change, is the extension and development of meteorological and agricultural droughts, and it is an eventual and extreme drought. This study selects 55 hydrological control basins in Southern China as research areas. The study analyzes features, such as intensity and occurrence frequency of hydrologic droughts, and explores the spatial-temporal evolution patterns in the karst drainage basins in Southern China by virtue of Streamflow Drought Index. Results show that (1) the general hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s exhibited ;an upward trend after having experienced a previous decline; in the karst drainage basins in Southern China; the trend was mainly represented by the gradual alleviation of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 1990s and the gradual aggravation from 2000s to 2010s. (2) The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of occurrence frequency in the karst drainage basins in Southern China was consistent with the intensity of hydrologic droughts. The periods of 1970s and 2010s exhibited the highest occurrence frequency. (3) The karst drainage basins in Southern China experienced extremely complex variability of hydrologic droughts from 1970s to 2010s. Drought intensity and occurrence frequency significantly vary for different types of hydrology.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

Analysis of changes in water-level dynamics at selected sites in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Benedict, Stephen T.

2013-01-01

The historical modification and regulation of the hydrologic patterns in the Florida Everglades have resulted in changes in the ecosystem of South Florida and the Florida Everglades. Since the 1970s, substantial focus has been given to the restoration of the Everglades ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey through its Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Science and National Water-Quality Assessment Programs has been providing scientific information to resource managers to assist in the Everglades restoration efforts. The current investigation included development of a simple method to identify and quantify changes in historical hydrologic behavior within the Everglades that could be used by researchers to identify responses of ecological communities to those changes. Such information then could be used by resource managers to develop appropriate water-management practices within the Everglades to promote restoration. The identification of changes in historical hydrologic behavior within the Everglades was accomplished by analyzing historical time-series water-level data from selected gages in the Everglades using (1) break-point analysis of cumulative Z-scores to identify hydrologic changes and (2) cumulative water-level frequency distribution curves to evaluate the magnitude of those changes. This analytical technique was applied to six long-term water-level gages in the Florida Everglades. The break-point analysis for the concurrent period of record (1978–2011) identified 10 common periods of changes in hydrologic behavior at the selected gages. The water-level responses at each gage for the 10 periods displayed similarity in fluctuation patterns, highlighting the interconnectedness of the Florida Everglades hydrologic system. While the patterns were similar, the analysis also showed that larger fluctuations in water levels between periods occurred in Water Conservation Areas 2 and 3 in contrast to those in Water Conservation Area 1 and the Everglades National Park. Results from the analysis indicate that the cumulative Z-score curve, in conjunction with cumulative water-level frequency distribution curves, can be a useful tool in identifying and quantifying changes in historical hydrologic behavior within the Everglades. In addition to the analysis, a spreadsheet application was developed to assist in applying these techniques to time-series water-level data at gages within the Everglades and is included with this report.

Regional regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency at sites in North Dakota using data through 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2015-08-06

Annual peak-flow frequency data from 231 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota and parts of Montana, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with 10 or more years of unregulated peak-flow record, were used to develop regional regression equations for exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 using generalized least-squares techniques. Updated peak-flow frequency estimates for 262 streamflow-gaging stations were developed using data through 2009 and log-Pearson Type III procedures outlined by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. An average generalized skew coefficient was determined for three hydrologic zones in North Dakota. A StreamStats web application was developed to estimate basin characteristics for the regional regression equation analysis. Methods for estimating a weighted peak-flow frequency for gaged sites and ungaged sites are presented.

RainyDay: An Online, Open-Source Tool for Physically-based Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, D.; Yu, G.; Holman, K. D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis in ungaged or changing watersheds typically requires rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves combined with hydrologic models. IDF curves only depict point-scale rainfall depth, while true rainstorms exhibit complex spatial and temporal structures. Floods result from these rainfall structures interacting with watershed features such as land cover, soils, and variable antecedent conditions as well as river channel processes. Thus, IDF curves are traditionally combined with a variety of "design storm" assumptions such as area reduction factors and idealized rainfall space-time distributions to translate rainfall depths into inputs that are suitable for flood hydrologic modeling. The impacts of such assumptions are relatively poorly understood. Meanwhile, modern precipitation estimates from gridded weather radar, grid-interpolated rain gages, satellites, and numerical weather models provide more realistic depictions of rainfall space-time structure. Usage of such datasets for rainfall and flood frequency analysis, however, are hindered by relatively short record lengths. We present RainyDay, an open-source stochastic storm transposition (SST) framework for generating large numbers of realistic rainfall "scenarios." SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by temporal resampling and geospatial transposition of observed storms to extract space-time information from regional gridded rainfall data. Relatively short (10-15 year) records of bias-corrected radar rainfall data are sufficient to estimate rainfall and flood events with much longer recurrence intervals including 100-year and 500-year events. We describe the SST methodology as implemented in RainyDay and compare rainfall IDF results from RainyDay to conventional estimates from NOAA Atlas 14. Then, we demonstrate some of the flood frequency analysis properties that are possible when RainyDay is integrated with a distributed hydrologic model, including robust estimation of flood hazards in a changing watershed. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is supporting the development of a web-based variant of RainyDay, a "beta" version of which is available at http://her.cee.wisc.edu/projects/rainyday/.

Non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis using B-spline quantile regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasri, B.; Bouezmarni, T.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic and water resources systems under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of climate change, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity, which is prerequisite for traditional frequency analysis and hence, the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extremes based on B-Spline quantile regression which allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates with linear and non-linear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for quantile regression are used in order to select the best model, i.e. for each quantile, we choose the degree and number of knots of the adequate B-spline quantile regression model. The method is applied to annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in the variable of interest and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for an annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities.

77 FR 38319 - Open Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Water Information

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-27

... Survey's National Water Information System; an update on the National Ground Water Monitoring Network Data Portal; a report on the Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group's progress on revising Bulletin...

A Study on Regional Frequency Analysis using Artificial Neural Network - the Sumjin River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, C.; Ahn, J.; Ahn, H.; Heo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Regional frequency analysis means to make up for shortcomings in the at-site frequency analysis which is about a lack of sample size through the regional concept. Regional rainfall quantile depends on the identification of hydrologically homogeneous regions, hence the regional classification based on hydrological homogeneous assumption is very important. For regional clustering about rainfall, multidimensional variables and factors related geographical features and meteorological figure are considered such as mean annual precipitation, number of days with precipitation in a year and average maximum daily precipitation in a month. Self-Organizing Feature Map method which is one of the artificial neural network algorithm in the unsupervised learning techniques solves N-dimensional and nonlinear problems and be shown results simply as a data visualization technique. In this study, for the Sumjin river basin in South Korea, cluster analysis was performed based on SOM method using high-dimensional geographical features and meteorological factor as input data. then, for the results, in order to evaluate the homogeneity of regions, the L-moment based discordancy and heterogeneity measures were used. Rainfall quantiles were estimated as the index flood method which is one of regional rainfall frequency analysis. Clustering analysis using SOM method and the consequential variation in rainfall quantile were analyzed. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology Concept

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

located in northern Austria . It not only underscores attributes of the method as applied to the Kamp at Zwettl but also discusses ways in which the...hydrology concept originally performed by Viglione et al. (2013) for the 622 km2 Kamp at Zwettl river basin located in northern Austria . Eight primary...parts of the example originally profiled by Viglione et al. (2013) for the 622 km2 Kamp at Zwettl river basin located in northern Austria . A Bayesian

Technical note: Design flood under hydrological uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botto, Anna; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi; Laio, Francesco

2017-07-01

Planning and verification of hydraulic infrastructures require a design estimate of hydrologic variables, usually provided by frequency analysis, and neglecting hydrologic uncertainty. However, when hydrologic uncertainty is accounted for, the design flood value for a specific return period is no longer a unique value, but is represented by a distribution of values. As a consequence, the design flood is no longer univocally defined, making the design process undetermined. The Uncertainty Compliant Design Flood Estimation (UNCODE) procedure is a novel approach that, starting from a range of possible design flood estimates obtained in uncertain conditions, converges to a single design value. This is obtained through a cost-benefit criterion with additional constraints that is numerically solved in a simulation framework. This paper contributes to promoting a practical use of the UNCODE procedure without resorting to numerical computation. A modified procedure is proposed by using a correction coefficient that modifies the standard (i.e., uncertainty-free) design value on the basis of sample length and return period only. The procedure is robust and parsimonious, as it does not require additional parameters with respect to the traditional uncertainty-free analysis. Simple equations to compute the correction term are provided for a number of probability distributions commonly used to represent the flood frequency curve. The UNCODE procedure, when coupled with this simple correction factor, provides a robust way to manage the hydrologic uncertainty and to go beyond the use of traditional safety factors. With all the other parameters being equal, an increase in the sample length reduces the correction factor, and thus the construction costs, while still keeping the same safety level.

High-frequency signal and noise estimates of CSR GRACE RL04

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonin, Jennifer A.; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Tapley, Byron D.

2012-12-01

A sliding window technique is used to create daily-sampled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) solutions with the same background processing as the official CSR RL04 monthly series. By estimating over shorter time spans, more frequent solutions are made using uncorrelated data, allowing for higher frequency resolution in addition to daily sampling. Using these data sets, high-frequency GRACE errors are computed using two different techniques: assuming the GRACE high-frequency signal in a quiet area of the ocean is the true error, and computing the variance of differences between multiple high-frequency GRACE series from different centers. While the signal-to-noise ratios prove to be sufficiently high for confidence at annual and lower frequencies, at frequencies above 3 cycles/year the signal-to-noise ratios in the large hydrological basins looked at here are near 1.0. Comparisons with the GLDAS hydrological model and high frequency GRACE series developed at other centers confirm CSR GRACE RL04's poor ability to accurately and reliably measure hydrological signal above 3-9 cycles/year, due to the low power of the large-scale hydrological signal typical at those frequencies compared to the GRACE errors.

Hydrological inferences through morphometric analysis of lower Kosi river basin of India for water resource management based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Praveen Kumar; Chandel, Rajeev Singh; Mishra, Varun Narayan; Singh, Prafull

2018-03-01

Satellite based remote sensing technology has proven to be an effectual tool in analysis of drainage networks, study of surface morphological features and their correlation with groundwater management prospect at basin level. The present study highlights the effectiveness and advantage of remote sensing and GIS-based analysis for quantitative and qualitative assessment of flood plain region of lower Kosi river basin based on morphometric analysis. In this study, ASTER DEM is used to extract the vital hydrological parameters of lower Kosi river basin in ARC GIS software. Morphometric parameters, e.g., stream order, stream length, bifurcation ratio, drainage density, drainage frequency, drainage texture, form factor, circularity ratio, elongation ratio, etc., have been calculated for the Kosi basin and their hydrological inferences were discussed. Most of the morphometric parameters such as bifurcation ratio, drainage density, drainage frequency, drainage texture concluded that basin has good prospect for water management program for various purposes and also generated data base that can provide scientific information for site selection of water-harvesting structures and flood management activities in the basin. Land use land cover (LULC) of the basin were also prepared from Landsat data of 2005, 2010 and 2015 to assess the change in dynamic of the basin and these layers are very noteworthy for further watershed prioritization.

Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, S. E.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Strupczewski, W. G.

2017-08-01

The non-stationarity of hydrologic processes due to climate change or human activities is challenging for the researchers and practitioners. However, the practical requirements for taking into account non-stationarity as a support in decision-making procedures exceed the up-to-date development of the theory and the of software. Currently, the most popular and freely available software package that allows for non-stationary statistical analysis is the GAMLSS (generalized additive models for location, scale and shape) package. GAMLSS has been used in a variety of fields. There are also several papers recommending GAMLSS in hydrological problems; however, there are still important issues which have not previously been discussed concerning mainly GAMLSS applicability not only for research and academic purposes, but also in a design practice. In this paper, we present a summary of our experiences in the implementation of GAMLSS to non-stationary flood frequency analysis, highlighting its advantages and pointing out weaknesses with regard to methodological and practical topics.

Combining information from multiple flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

This study demonstrates, in the context of flood frequency analysis, the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach explicitly accommodates shared multimodel discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, and treats the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The methodology is applied to flood estimates from multiple hydrological projections (the Future Flows Hydrology data set) for 135 catchments in the UK. The advantages of the approach are shown to be: (1) to ensure adequate "baseline" with which to compare future changes; (2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; (3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; (4) to diminish the importance of model consistency when model biases are large; and (5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

Hydrological resiliency in the Western Boreal Plains: classification of hydrological responses using wavelet analysis to assess landscape resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Probert, Samantha; Kettridge, Nicholas; Devito, Kevin; Hannah, David; Parkin, Geoff

2017-04-01

The Boreal represents a system of substantial resilience to climate change, with minimal ecological change over the past 6000 years. However, unprecedented climatic warming, coupled with catchment disturbances could exceed thresholds of hydrological function in the Western Boreal Plains. Knowledge of ecohydrological and climatic feedbacks that shape the resilience of boreal forests has advanced significantly in recent years, but this knowledge is yet to be applied and understood at landscape scales. Hydrological modelling at the landscape scale is challenging in the WBP due to diverse, non-topographically driven hydrology across the mosaic of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This study functionally divides the geologic and ecological components of the landscape into Hydrologic Response Areas (HRAs) and wetland, forestland, interface and pond Hydrologic Units (HUs) to accurately characterise water storage and infer transmission at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Wavelet analysis is applied to pond and groundwater levels to describe the patterns of water storage in response to climate signals; to isolate dominant controls on hydrological responses and to assess the relative importance of physical controls between wet and dry climates. This identifies which components of the landscape exhibit greater magnitude and frequency of variability to wetting and drying trends, further to testing the hierarchical framework for hydrological storage controls of: climate, bedrock geology, surficial geology, soil, vegetation, and topography. Classifying HRA and HU hydrological function is essential to understand and predict water storage and redistribution through drought cycles and wet periods. This work recognises which landscape components are most sensitive under climate change and disturbance and also creates scope for hydrological resiliency research in Boreal systems by recognising critical landscape components and their role in landscape collapse or catastrophic shift in ecosystem function under future climatic scenarios.

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, through 2006: Volume 2, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis; Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2009-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. In North Carolina, annual peak-flow data available through September 2006 were available for 584 sites; 402 of these sites had a total of 10 or more years of systematic record that is required for at-site, flood-frequency analysis. Following data reviews and the computation of 20 physical and climatic basin characteristics for each station as well as at-site flood-frequency statistics, annual peak-flow data were identified for 363 sites in North Carolina suitable for use in this analysis. Among these 363 sites, 19 sites had records that could be divided into unregulated and regulated/ channelized annual peak discharges, which means peak-flow records were identified for a total of 382 cases in North Carolina. Considering the 382 cases, at-site flood-frequency statistics are provided for 333 unregulated cases (also used for the regression database) and 49 regulated/channelized cases. The flood-frequency statistics for the 333 unregulated sites were combined with data for sites from South Carolina, Georgia, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia to create a database of 943 sites considered for use in the regional regression analysis. Flood-frequency statistics were computed by fitting logarithms (base 10) of the annual peak flows to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation process, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed by using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943 sites resulted in defining five hydrologic regions for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Stations with drainage areas less than 1 square mile were removed from the database, and a procedure to examine for basin redundancy (based on drainage area and periods of record) also resulted in the removal of some stations from the regression database. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 gaged stations were combined to form the final database that was used in the regional regression analysis. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged, basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and the percentage of drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.0 to 47.7 percent. Discharge estimates determined from the systematic records for the current study are, on average, larger in magnitude than those from a previous study for the highest percent chance exceedances (50 and 20 percent) and tend to be smaller than those from the previous study for the lower percent chance exceedances when all sites are considered as a group. For example, mean differences for sites in the Piedmont hydrologic region range from positive 0.5 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 4.6 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow when stations are grouped by hydrologic region. Similarly for the same hydrologic region, median differences range from positive 0.9 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 7.1 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow. However, mean and median percentage differences between the estimates from the previous and curre

Continuity vs. the Crowd-Tradeoffs Between Continuous and Intermittent Citizen Hydrology Streamflow Observations.

PubMed

Davids, Jeffrey C; van de Giesen, Nick; Rutten, Martine

2017-07-01

Hydrologic data has traditionally been collected with permanent installations of sophisticated and accurate but expensive monitoring equipment at limited numbers of sites. Consequently, observation frequency and costs are high, but spatial coverage of the data is limited. Citizen Hydrology can possibly overcome these challenges by leveraging easily scaled mobile technology and local residents to collect hydrologic data at many sites. However, understanding of how decreased observational frequency impacts the accuracy of key streamflow statistics such as minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff is limited. To evaluate this impact, we randomly selected 50 active United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges in California. We used 7 years of historical 15-min flow data from 2008 to 2014 to develop minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff values for each gauge. To mimic lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations, we developed a bootstrap randomized subsampling with replacement procedure. We calculated the same statistics, and their respective distributions, from 50 subsample iterations with four different subsampling frequencies ranging from daily to monthly. Minimum flows were estimated within 10% for half of the subsample iterations at 39 (daily) and 23 (monthly) of the 50 sites. However, maximum flows were estimated within 10% at only 7 (daily) and 0 (monthly) sites. Runoff volumes were estimated within 10% for half of the iterations at 44 (daily) and 12 (monthly) sites. Watershed flashiness most strongly impacted accuracy of minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff estimates from subsampled data. Depending on the questions being asked, lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations can provide useful hydrologic information.

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

2017-01-01

Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

Determination of biologically significant hydrologic condition metrics in urbanizing watersheds: an empirical analysis over a range of environmental settings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steuer, Jeffrey J.; Stensvold, Krista A.; Gregory, Mark B.

2010-01-01

We investigated the relations among 83 hydrologic condition metrics (HCMs) and changes in algal, invertebrate, and fish communities in five metropolitan areas across the continental United States. We used a statistical approach that employed Spearman correlation and regression tree analysis to identify five HCMs that are strongly associated with observed biological variation along a gradient of urbanization. The HCMs related to average flow magnitude, high-flow magnitude, high-flow event frequency, high-flow duration, and rate of change of stream cross-sectional area were most consistently associated with changes in aquatic communities. Although our investigation used an urban gradient design with short hydrologic periods of record (≤1 year) of hourly cross-sectional area time series, these five HCMs were consistent with previous investigations using long-term daily-flow records. The ecological sampling day often was included in the hydrologic period. Regression tree models explained up to 73, 92, and 79% of variance for specific algal, invertebrate, and fish community metrics, respectively. National models generally were not as statistically significant as models for individual metropolitan areas. High-flow event frequency, a hydrologic metric found to be transferable across stream type and useful for classifying habitat by previous research, was found to be the most ecologically relevant HCM; transformation by precipitation increased national-scale applicability. We also investigated the relation between measures of stream flashiness and land-cover indicators of urbanization and found that land-cover characteristic and pattern variables, such as road density, percent wetland, and proximity of developed land, were strongly related to HCMs at both a metropolitan and national scale and, therefore, may be effective land-use management options in addition to wholesale impervious-area reduction.

Rapid response of a hydrologic system to volcanic activity: Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, S.C.P.; Connor, C.B.; Sanford, W.E.

2008-01-01

Hydrologic systems change in response to volcanic activity, and in turn may be sensitive indicators of volcanic activity. Here we investigate the coupled nature of magmatic and hydrologic systems using continuous multichannel time series of soil temperature collected on the flanks of Masaya volcano, Nicaragua, one of the most active volcanoes in Central America. The soil temperatures were measured in a low-temperature fumarole field located 3.5 km down the flanks of the volcano. Analysis of these time series reveals that they respond extremely rapidly, on a time scale of minutes, to changes in volcanic activity also manifested at the summit vent. These rapid temperature changes are caused by increased flow of water vapor through flank fumaroles during volcanism. The soil temperature response, ~5 °C, is repetitive and complex, with as many as 13 pulses during a single volcanic episode. Analysis of the frequency spectrum of these temperature time series shows that these anomalies are characterized by broad frequency content during volcanic activity. They are thus easily distinguished from seasonal trends, diurnal variations, or individual rainfall events, which triggered rapid transient increases in temperature during 5% of events. We suggest that the mechanism responsible for the distinctive temperature signals is rapid change in pore pressure in response to magmatism, a response that can be enhanced by meteoric water infiltration. Monitoring of distal fumaroles can therefore provide insight into coupled volcanic-hydrologic-meteorologic systems, and has potential as an inexpensive monitoring tool.

Abrupt Change of the Transboundary Runoff and Its Influence on Water Security of Lanstang-Mekong River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Y. F.; Xie, P.; Ziyi, W.; Jiangyan, Z.; Qianjin, D.; Xu, L.

2017-12-01

As a significant manifestation of hydrological variability, abrupt change will obviously impact on the water security. To analyze what does the variation bring under changing environment, abrupt change detection should be a basic task, as well as variation level evaluation and hydrological frequency analysis. However, there lacks an effective method to reach those purposes systematically. Here we derived correlation coefficient between the original series and the jump-component series which is related to the difference degree of mean value before and after the abrupt change. Based on it, we proposed the moving-correlation-coefficient-based detection method and evaluated the significance of abrupt change as different levels related to the value of correlation coefficient. Then, with the obtained results, we calculated hydrological frequency in different situation (before and after the abrupt change). The approach above was employed to investigate the transboundary runoff of Lanstang-Mekong River at some kinds of time scale. We obtained the abrupt changes from runoff series of year, flood season and dry season which are almost the same. All the abrupt changes were significant which could reach to the moderate level. Compared with the past situation (before the abrupt change), the hydrological frequency in the current situation (after the abrupt change) indicated the water security of the water supply and flood control in the lower reaches of Lanstang-Mekong River could be guaranteed better, which is owed to the construction and operation of the water conservancy projects on the upper Lanstang-Mekong River.

The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

Evaluation of Spatial Pattern of Altered Flow Regimes on a River Network Using a Distributed Hydrological Model

PubMed Central

Ryo, Masahiro; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Yoshimura, Chihiro; Saavedra V., Oliver C.

2015-01-01

Alteration of the spatial variability of natural flow regimes has been less studied than that of the temporal variability, despite its ecological importance for river ecosystems. Here, we aimed to quantify the spatial patterns of flow regime alterations along a river network in the Sagami River, Japan, by estimating river discharge under natural and altered flow conditions. We used a distributed hydrological model, which simulates hydrological processes spatiotemporally, to estimate 20-year daily river discharge along the river network. Then, 33 hydrologic indices (i.e., Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration) were calculated from the simulated discharge to estimate the spatial patterns of their alterations. Some hydrologic indices were relatively well estimated such as the magnitude and timing of maximum flows, monthly median flows, and the frequency of low and high flow pulses. The accuracy was evaluated with correlation analysis (r > 0.4) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (α = 0.05) by comparing these indices calculated from both observed and simulated discharge. The spatial patterns of the flow regime alterations varied depending on the hydrologic indices. For example, both the median flow in August and the frequency of high flow pulses were reduced by the maximum of approximately 70%, but these strongest alterations were detected at different locations (i.e., on the mainstream and the tributary, respectively). These results are likely caused by different operational purposes of multiple water control facilities. The results imply that the evaluation only at discharge gauges is insufficient to capture the alteration of the flow regime. Our findings clearly emphasize the importance of evaluating the spatial pattern of flow regime alteration on a river network where its discharge is affected by multiple water control facilities. PMID:26207997

Variability of hydrological droughts in the conterminous United States, 1951 through 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Wolock, David M.; Nelms, David L.

2018-02-22

Spatial and temporal variability in the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts across the conterminous United States (CONUS) was examined using monthly mean streamflow measured at 872 sites from 1951 through 2014. Hydrological drought is identified as starting when streamflow falls below the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months and ending when streamflow remains above the 20th percentile streamflow value for 3 consecutive months. Mean drought frequency for all aggregated ecoregions in CONUS is 16 droughts per 100 years. Mean drought duration is 5 months, and mean drought severity is 39 percent on a scale ranging from 0 percent to 100 percent (with 100% being the most severe). Hydrological drought frequency is highest in the Western Mountains aggregated ecoregion and lowest in the Eastern Highlands, Northeast, and Southeast Plains aggregated ecoregions. Hydrological drought frequencies of 17 or more droughts per 100 years were found for the Central Plains, Southeast Coastal Plains, Western Mountains, and Western Xeric aggregated ecoregions. Drought duration and severity indicate spatial variability among the sites, but unlike drought frequency, do not show coherent spatial patterns. A comparison of an older period (1951–82) with a recent period (1983–2014) indicates few sites have statistically significant changes in drought frequency, drought duration, or drought severity at a 95-percent confidence level.

Assessing hydrological changes in a regulated river system over the last 90 years in Rimac Basin (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vega-Jácome, Fiorella; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven; Felipe-Obando, Oscar Gustavo

2018-04-01

Hydrological changes were assessed considering possible changes in precipitation and regulation or hydraulic diversion projects developed in the basin since 1960s in terms of improving water supply of the Rimac River, which is the main source of fresh water of Peru's capital. To achieve this objective, a trend analysis of precipitation and flow series was assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Subsequently, the Eco-flow and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methods were applied for the characterization and quantification of the hydrological change in the basin, considering for the analysis, a natural period (1920-1960) and an altered period (1961-2012). Under this focus, daily hydrologic information of the "Chosica R-2" station (from 1920 to 2013) and monthly rainfall information related to 14 stations (from 1964 to 2013) were collected. The results show variations in the flow seasonality of the altered period in relation to the natural period and a significant trend to increase (decrease) minimum flows (maximum flows) during the analyzed period. The Eco-flow assessment shows a predominance of Eco-deficit from December to May (rainy season), strongly related to negative anomalies of precipitation. In addition, a predominance of Eco-surplus was found from June to November (dry season) with a behavior opposite to precipitation, attributed to the regulations and diversion in the basin during that period. In terms of magnitude, the IHA assessment identified an increase of 51% in the average flows during the dry season and a reduction of 10% in the average flows during the rainy season (except December and May). Furthermore, the minimum flows increased by 35% with shorter duration and frequency, and maximum flows decreased by 29% with more frequency but less duration. Although there are benefits of regulation and diversion for developing anthropic activities, the fact that hydrologic alterations may result in significant modifications in the Rimac River ecosystem must be taken into account.

Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

2008-01-01

Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

Evaluation of uncertainty in capturing the spatial variability and magnitudes of extreme hydrological events for the uMngeni catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton Toucher, Michele L.; van Garderen, Emma Archer

2018-02-01

Downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are used to forecast climate change and provide information used as input for hydrological modelling. Given that our understanding of climate change points towards an increasing frequency, timing and intensity of extreme hydrological events, there is therefore the need to assess the ability of downscaled GCMs to capture these extreme hydrological events. Extreme hydrological events play a significant role in regulating the structure and function of rivers and associated ecosystems. In this study, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method was adapted to assess the ability of simulated streamflow (using downscaled GCMs (dGCMs)) in capturing extreme river dynamics (high and low flows), as compared to streamflow simulated using historical climate data from 1960 to 2000. The ACRU hydrological model was used for simulating streamflow for the 13 water management units of the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Statistically downscaled climate models obtained from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town were used as input for the ACRU Model. Results indicated that, high flows and extreme high flows (one in ten year high flows/large flood events) were poorly represented both in terms of timing, frequency and magnitude. Simulated streamflow using dGCMs data also captures more low flows and extreme low flows (one in ten year lowest flows) than that captured in streamflow simulated using historical climate data. The overall conclusion was that although dGCMs output can reasonably be used to simulate overall streamflow, it performs poorly when simulating extreme high and low flows. Streamflow simulation from dGCMs must thus be used with caution in hydrological applications, particularly for design hydrology, as extreme high and low flows are still poorly represented. This, arguably calls for the further improvement of downscaling techniques in order to generate climate data more relevant and useful for hydrological applications such as in design hydrology. Nevertheless, the availability of downscaled climatic output provide the potential of exploring climate model uncertainties in different hydro climatic regions at local scales where forcing data is often less accessible but more accurate at finer spatial scales and with adequate spatial detail.

Analysis of hydrological features of portions of the Lake Ontario basin using Skylab and aircraft data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polcyn, F. C. (Principal Investigator); Rebel, D. L.; Colwell, J. E.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. S190A and S190B photography proved to be useful for mapping large scale geomorophological features, and for assessing water depth and water quality. Available S192 data were affected by low frequency noise caused by diode light. Hydrological features were classified, and upland green herbaceous vegetation was separated into several classes based on percent vegetation cover. A model for estimating surface soil moisture based on red and near infrared reflectance data was developed and subsequently implemented.

Utilizing Hierarchical Clustering to improve Efficiency of Self-Organizing Feature Map to Identify Hydrological Homogeneous Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farsadnia, Farhad; Ghahreman, Bijan

2016-04-01

Hydrologic homogeneous group identification is considered both fundamental and applied research in hydrology. Clustering methods are among conventional methods to assess the hydrological homogeneous regions. Recently, Self-Organizing feature Map (SOM) method has been applied in some studies. However, the main problem of this method is the interpretation on the output map of this approach. Therefore, SOM is used as input to other clustering algorithms. The aim of this study is to apply a two-level Self-Organizing feature map and Ward hierarchical clustering method to determine the hydrologic homogenous regions in North and Razavi Khorasan provinces. At first by principal component analysis, we reduced SOM input matrix dimension, then the SOM was used to form a two-dimensional features map. To determine homogeneous regions for flood frequency analysis, SOM output nodes were used as input into the Ward method. Generally, the regions identified by the clustering algorithms are not statistically homogeneous. Consequently, they have to be adjusted to improve their homogeneity. After adjustment of the homogeneity regions by L-moment tests, five hydrologic homogeneous regions were identified. Finally, adjusted regions were created by a two-level SOM and then the best regional distribution function and associated parameters were selected by the L-moment approach. The results showed that the combination of self-organizing maps and Ward hierarchical clustering by principal components as input is more effective than the hierarchical method, by principal components or standardized inputs to achieve hydrologic homogeneous regions.

Flood-frequency analyses, Manual of Hydrology: Part 3

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalrymple, Tate

1960-01-01

This report describes the method used by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine the magnitude and frequency of momentary peak discharges at any place on a stream, whether a gaging-station record is available or not. The method is applicable to a region of any size, as a river basin or a State, so long as the region is hydrologically homogeneous. The analysis provides two curves. The first expresses the flood discharge-time relation, showing variation of peak discharge, expressed as a ratio to the mean annual flood, with recurrence interval. The second relates the mean annual flood to the size of drainage area alone, or to the size area and other significant basin characteristics. A frequency curve may be defined for any place in the region by use of these two curves. The procedure is: (a) measure the drainage area and other appropriate basin characteristics from maps; (b) from the second curve, select the mean annual flood corresponding to the proper drainage area factors; (c) from the first curve, select ratios of peak discharge to mean annual flood for selected recurrence intervals, as 2, 10, 25, and 50 years; and (d) multiply these ratios by the mean annual flood and plot the resulting discharges of known frequency to define the frequency curve. Two reports not previously given general circulation are included as sections of this report. These are 'Plotting Positions in Frequency Analysis' by W. B. Langbein, and 'Characteristics of Frequency Curves Based on a Theoretical 1,000-Year Record' by M. A. Benson.

Insights into streamflow generation mechanisms using high-frequency analysis of isotopes and water quality in streamflow and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Freyberg, Jana; Kirchner, James W.

2017-04-01

In the pre-Alpine Alptal catchment in central Switzerland, snowmelt and rainfall events cause rapid changes not only in hydrological conditions, but also in water quality. A flood forecasting model for such a mountainous catchment thus requires process understanding that is informed by high-frequency monitoring of hydrological and hydrochemical parameters. Therefore, we installed a high-frequency sampling and analysis system near the outlet of the 0.7 km2 Erlenbach catchment, a headwater tributary of the Alp river. We measured stable water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) in precipitation and streamwater using Picarro, Inc.'s (Santa Clara, CA, USA) newly developed Continuous Water Sampler Module (CWS) coupled to their L2130-i Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometer, at 30 min temporal resolution. Water quality was monitored with a dual-channel ion chomatograph (Metrohm AG, Herisau, Switzerland) for analysis of major cations and anions, as well as with a UV-Vis spectroscopy system and electrochemical probes (s::can Messtechnik GmbH, Vienna, Austria) for characterization of nutrients and basic water quality parameters. For quantification of trace elements and metals, we collected additional water samples for subsequent ICP-MS analysis in the laboratory. To illustrate the applicability of our newly developed automated analysis and sampling system under field conditions, we will present initial results from the 2016 fall and winter seasons at the Erlenbach catchment. During this period, river discharge was mainly fed by groundwater, as well as intermittent snowmelt and rain-on-snow events. Our high-frequency data set, along with spatially distributed sampling of snowmelt, enables a detailed analysis of source areas, flow pathways and biogeochemical processes that control chemical dynamics in streamflow and the discharge regime.

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example of five watersheds located in the South of France. References : O. CAYLA : Probability calculation of design floods abd inflows - SPEED. Waterpower 1995, San Francisco, California 1995 CFGB : Design flood determination by the gradex method. Bulletin du Comité Français des Grands Barrages News 96, 18th congress CIGB-ICOLD n2, nov:108, 1994. F. GARAVAGLIA et al. : Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns subsampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 951-964, 2010. J. LAVABRE et al. : SHYREG : une méthode pour l'estimation régionale des débits de crue. application aux régions méditerranéennes françaises. Ingénierie EAT, 97-111, 2003. M. MARGOUM : Estimation des crues rares et extrêmes : le modèle AGREGEE. Conceptions et remières validations. PhD, Ecole des Mines de Paris, 1992. R. NAULET et al. : Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using French documentary sources from the two last centuries. Journal of Hydrology, 313:58-78, 2005. E. PAQUET et al. : The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation, Journal of Hydrology, 495, 23-37, 2013.

Multivariate stochastic analysis for Monthly hydrological time series at Cuyahoga River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

zhang, L.

2011-12-01

Copula has become a very powerful statistic and stochastic methodology in case of the multivariate analysis in Environmental and Water resources Engineering. In recent years, the popular one-parameter Archimedean copulas, e.g. Gumbel-Houggard copula, Cook-Johnson copula, Frank copula, the meta-elliptical copula, e.g. Gaussian Copula, Student-T copula, etc. have been applied in multivariate hydrological analyses, e.g. multivariate rainfall (rainfall intensity, duration and depth), flood (peak discharge, duration and volume), and drought analyses (drought length, mean and minimum SPI values, and drought mean areal extent). Copula has also been applied in the flood frequency analysis at the confluences of river systems by taking into account the dependence among upstream gauge stations rather than by using the hydrological routing technique. In most of the studies above, the annual time series have been considered as stationary signal which the time series have been assumed as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. But in reality, hydrological time series, especially the daily and monthly hydrological time series, cannot be considered as i.i.d. random variables due to the periodicity existed in the data structure. Also, the stationary assumption is also under question due to the Climate Change and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change in the fast years. To this end, it is necessary to revaluate the classic approach for the study of hydrological time series by relaxing the stationary assumption by the use of nonstationary approach. Also as to the study of the dependence structure for the hydrological time series, the assumption of same type of univariate distribution also needs to be relaxed by adopting the copula theory. In this paper, the univariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the nonstationary time series analysis approach. The dependence structure of the multivariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the copula theory. As to the parameter estimation, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) will be applied. To illustrate the method, the univariate time series model and the dependence structure will be determined and tested using the monthly discharge time series of Cuyahoga River Basin.

Monitoring groundwater-surface water interaction using time-series and time-frequency analysis of transient three-dimensional electrical resistivity changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Timothy C.; Slater, Lee D.; Ntarlagiannis, Dimitris; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Elwaseif, Mehrez

2012-01-01

Time-lapse resistivity imaging is increasingly used to monitor hydrologic processes. Compared to conventional hydrologic measurements, surface time-lapse resistivity provides superior spatial coverage in two or three dimensions, potentially high-resolution information in time, and information in the absence of wells. However, interpretation of time-lapse electrical tomograms is complicated by the ever-increasing size and complexity of long-term, three-dimensional (3-D) time series conductivity data sets. Here we use 3-D surface time-lapse electrical imaging to monitor subsurface electrical conductivity variations associated with stage-driven groundwater-surface water interactions along a stretch of the Columbia River adjacent to the Hanford 300 near Richland, Washington, USA. We reduce the resulting 3-D conductivity time series using both time-series and time-frequency analyses to isolate a paleochannel causing enhanced groundwater-surface water interactions. Correlation analysis on the time-lapse imaging results concisely represents enhanced groundwater-surface water interactions within the paleochannel, and provides information concerning groundwater flow velocities. Time-frequency analysis using the Stockwell (S) transform provides additional information by identifying the stage periodicities driving groundwater-surface water interactions due to upstream dam operations, and identifying segments in time-frequency space when these interactions are most active. These results provide new insight into the distribution and timing of river water intrusion into the Hanford 300 Area, which has a governing influence on the behavior of a uranium plume left over from historical nuclear fuel processing operations.

Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Hlavčová, Kamila; Viglione, Alberto

2010-01-01

The paper deals with at-site flood frequency estimation in the case when also information on hydrological events from the past with extraordinary magnitude are available. For the joint frequency analysis of systematic observations and historical data, respectively, the Bayesian framework is chosen, which, through adequately defined likelihood functions, allows for incorporation of different sources of hydrological information, e.g., maximum annual flood peaks, historical events as well as measurement errors. The distribution of the parameters of the fitted distribution function and the confidence intervals of the flood quantiles are derived by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) technique. The paper presents a sensitivity analysis related to the choice of the most influential parameters of the statistical model, which are the length of the historical period h and the perception threshold X0. These are involved in the statistical model under the assumption that except for the events termed as ‘historical’ ones, none of the (unknown) peak discharges from the historical period h should have exceeded the threshold X0. Both higher values of h and lower values of X0 lead to narrower confidence intervals of the estimated flood quantiles; however, it is emphasized that one should be prudent of selecting those parameters, in order to avoid making inferences with wrong assumptions on the unknown hydrological events having occurred in the past. The Bayesian MCMC methodology is presented on the example of the maximum discharges observed during the warm half year at the station Vltava-Kamýk (Czech Republic) in the period 1877-2002. Although the 2002 flood peak, which is related to the vast flooding that affected a large part of Central Europe at that time, occurred in the near past, in the analysis it is treated virtually as a ‘historical’ event in order to illustrate some crucial aspects of including information on extreme historical floods into at-site flood frequency analyses.

Self-potential monitoring of water flux at the HOBE agricultural site, Voulund, Denmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jougnot, D.; Linde, N.; Looms, M. C.

2013-12-01

The self-potential (SP) method is of interest in hydrology and environmental sciences because of its non-invasive nature and its sensitivity to flow and transport processes in the subsurface. The contribution to the SP signal by water flux is referred to as the streaming potential and is due to the presence of an electrical double layer at the mineral-pore water interface. When water flows through the pore, it gives rise to a streaming current and a resulting measurable electrical voltage between non-polarizable electrodes placed at different locations. This electrokinetic behavior is well understood in water saturated porous media, but the best way to model streaming currents under partial saturation is still under discussion. To better understand SP data within the vadose zone, we conducted field-based monitoring of the vertical distribution of the SP signal following different hydrologic events. The investigations were carried out at the Voulund agricultural test site that is part of the Danish hydrological observatory, HOBE, located in the Skjern river catchment (Denmark) in the middle of a cultivated area. It has been instrumented since 2010 to monitor suction, water content and temperature down to a depth of 3 m, together with meteorological variables and repeated geophysical campaigns (cross borehole electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar). In July 2011, we installed 15 non-polarizable electrodes at 10 depths within the vadose zone (from 0.25 to 3.10 m) and a reference electrode below the water table (7.30 m). More than 2 years of data acquired at a measurement period of 5 minutes are now available with periods indicative of various hydrologic events, such as natural infiltration, water table rises and a high salinity tracer test. We performed wavelet-based signal analysis and investigated the wavelet coherency of the SP data with other measurement variables. The wavelet coherency analysis displays an anti-correlation between SP and water content at high frequencies (periods smaller than 1 day) and between SP and temperature at lower frequencies. For the high salinity tracer test, the continuous wavelet power spectra of the SP time series indicate that most signal energy is initially located in the higher frequencies at the top of the soil profile and later at lower frequencies at depth as the plume migrates downwards. We use a numerical model of the test site to simulate water fluxes, ionic transport and SP during different hydrological events. The first simulation results compare fairly well to the measured data. These initial results will serve as starting point for a detailed assessment of the value of SP data in vadose zone hydrology, particularly as a tool for in situ monitoring of water flux.

Parameter uncertainty and nonstationarity in regional extreme rainfall frequency analysis in Qu River Basin, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Xu, Y. P.; Gu, H.

2014-12-01

Traditionally, regional frequency analysis methods were developed for stationary environmental conditions. Nevertheless, recent studies have identified significant changes in hydrological records, leading to the 'death' of stationarity. Besides, uncertainty in hydrological frequency analysis is persistent. This study aims to investigate the impact of one of the most important uncertainty sources, parameter uncertainty, together with nonstationarity, on design rainfall depth in Qu River Basin, East China. A spatial bootstrap is first proposed to analyze the uncertainty of design rainfall depth estimated by regional frequency analysis based on L-moments and estimated on at-site scale. Meanwhile, a method combining the generalized additive models with 30-year moving window is employed to analyze non-stationarity existed in the extreme rainfall regime. The results show that the uncertainties of design rainfall depth with 100-year return period under stationary conditions estimated by regional spatial bootstrap can reach 15.07% and 12.22% with GEV and PE3 respectively. On at-site scale, the uncertainties can reach 17.18% and 15.44% with GEV and PE3 respectively. In non-stationary conditions, the uncertainties of maximum rainfall depth (corresponding to design rainfall depth) with 0.01 annual exceedance probability (corresponding to 100-year return period) are 23.09% and 13.83% with GEV and PE3 respectively. Comparing the 90% confidence interval, the uncertainty of design rainfall depth resulted from parameter uncertainty is less than that from non-stationarity frequency analysis with GEV, however, slightly larger with PE3. This study indicates that the spatial bootstrap can be successfully applied to analyze the uncertainty of design rainfall depth on both regional and at-site scales. And the non-stationary analysis shows that the differences between non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents are important for decision makes of water resources management and risk management.

Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veilleux, Andrea G.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Flynn, Kathleen M.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Hummel, Paul R.

2014-01-01

Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/, Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest river to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, F.; Cuo, L.; Wu, H.; Mantua, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2009-12-01

The climate of the Pacific Northwest (PNW - which we define as the Columbia River basin and watersheds draining to the Oregon and Washington coasts) is expected to warm by approximately 0.3°C per decade in the next 100 years based on the IPCC the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. PNW hydrology is particularly sensitive to a warming climate because of the dominant role of snowmelt in seasonal streamflow. Timing shifts in seasonality of flows, peak discharge, and base flows will impact water resource management, regional electrical energy production, and freshwater ecosystems. In this work we update previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology using a macroscale hydrology model driven by simulations of temperature and precipitation downscaled from runs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A1B) in the 21st century. The hydrology model is implemented at 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the entire PNW. A (statistical) bias-correction and spatial disaggregation downscaling approach is used for translating the transient monthly climate model output into continuous daily forcings for the hydrologic analysis. We evaluate projected changes in snow water equivalent, seasonal streamflow, and frequency of peak low flows over a set of case study watersheds in the region. We also compare these hydrologic projections with previous analysis based on delta downscaling method over the PNW. This research is part of a project investigating climate change impacts on the future of wild Pacific salmon, and is a pilot effort to investigate the hydrologic sensitivity of salmon bearing watersheds around the entire North Pacific Rim.

Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

2013-12-01

Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

On the non-stationarity of hydrological response in anthropogenically unaffected catchments: an Australian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, Hoori; Sharma, Ashish; Band, Lawrence E.; Evans, Jason P.; Tuteja, Narendra K.; Amirthanathan, Gnanathikkam E.; Bari, Mohammed A.

2017-01-01

Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to impact the terrestrial hydrologic cycle through changes in radiative forcings and plant physiological and structural responses. Here, we investigate the nature and frequency of non-stationary hydrological response as evidenced through water balance studies over 166 anthropogenically unaffected catchments in Australia. Non-stationarity of hydrologic response is investigated through analysis of long-term trend in annual runoff ratio (1984-2005). Results indicate that a significant trend (p < 0.01) in runoff ratio is evident in 20 catchments located in three main ecoregions of the continent. Runoff ratio decreased across the catchments with non-stationary hydrologic response with the exception of one catchment in northern Australia. Annual runoff ratio sensitivity to annual fractional vegetation cover was similar to or greater than sensitivity to annual precipitation in most of the catchments with non-stationary hydrologic response indicating vegetation impacts on streamflow. We use precipitation-productivity relationships as the first-order control for ecohydrologic catchment classification. A total of 12 out of 20 catchments present a positive precipitation-productivity relationship possibly enhanced by CO2 fertilization effect. In the remaining catchments, biogeochemical and edaphic factors may be impacting productivity. Results suggest vegetation dynamics should be considered in exploring causes of non-stationary hydrologic response.

Detecting Human Hydrologic Alteration from Diversion Hydropower Requires Universal Flow Prediction Tools: A Proposed Framework for Flow Prediction in Poorly-gauged, Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2016-12-01

Achieving the universal energy access Sustainable Development Goal will require great investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the developing world. Much growth in the renewable sector will come from new hydropower projects, including small and diversion hydropower in remote and mountainous regions. Yet, human impacts to hydrological systems from diversion hydropower are poorly described. Diversion hydropower is often implemented in ungauged rivers, thus detection of impact requires flow analysis tools suited to prediction in poorly-gauged and human-altered catchments. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of hydrologic alteration in 32 rivers developed with diversion hydropower in southwestern China. As flow data are sparse, we devise an approach for estimating streamflow during pre- and post-development periods, drawing upon a decade of research into prediction in ungauged basins. We apply a rainfall-runoff model, parameterized and forced exclusively with global-scale data, in hydrologically-similar gauged and ungauged catchments. Uncertain "soft" data are incorporated through fuzzy numbers and confidence-based weighting, and a multi-criteria objective function is applied to evaluate model performance. Testing indicates that the proposed framework returns superior performance (NSE = 0.77) as compared to models parameterized by rote calibration (NSE = 0.62). Confident that the models are providing `the right answer for the right reasons', our analysis of hydrologic alteration based on simulated flows indicates statistically significant hydrologic effects of diversion hydropower across many rivers. Mean annual flows, 7-day minimum and 7-day maximum flows decreased. Frequency and duration of flow exceeding Q25 decreased while duration of flows sustained below the Q75 increased substantially. Hydrograph rise and fall rates and flow constancy increased. The proposed methodology may be applied to improve diversion hydropower design in data-limited regions.

Polar motion excitation analysis due to global continental water redistribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, L.; Schuh, H.

2006-10-01

We present the results obtained when studying the hydrological excitation of the Earth‘s wobble due to global redistribution of continental water storage. This work was performed in two steps. First, we computed the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) time series based on the global hydrological model LaD (Land Dynamics model) for the period 1980 till 2004. Then, we compared the effectiveness of this excitation by analysing the residuals of the geodetic time series after removing atmospheric and oceanic contributions with the respective hydrological ones. The emphasis was put on low frequency variations. We also present a comparison of HAM time series from LaD with respect to that one from a global model based on the assimilated soil moisture and snow accumulation data from NCEP/NCAR (The National Center for Environmental Prediction/The National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis. Finally, we evaluate the performance of LaD model in closing the polar motion budget at seasonal periods in comparison with the NCEP and the Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) models.

Investigating Drought Onset, Termination and Recovery According to Water Quality Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2016-12-01

Frequency and severity of droughts are increasing globally. Reduced catchment runoff and river flows caused by the meteorological drivers leads to hydrological drought. Hydrological droughts have significant impacts not only on water quantity but also on water quality. In this study, first the onset of historical hydrological droughts is estimated using daily threshold-based indicators. Then drought termination and recovery period in terms of water quantity is analyzed. This is followed by examination of water quality during these detected hydrological droughts. Four water quality parameters, i.e., water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH and turbidity are investigated over Willamette river basin located in northwestern Oregon in the United States. Drought vulnerability and resiliency are analyzed for the study period. Droughts and the recovery period are found to have significant impact on water quality parameters. Also, the results indicate a deterioration of water quality during droughts and longer drought recovery if water quality indicators are considered in the analysis.

A Century Trend of Precipitation in Forest Watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G.; Ouyang, Y.; Leininger, T.; Han, Y.

2017-12-01

Estimates of hydrological processes in forest watersheds are essential to water supply planning, water quality protection, water resources management, and ecological restoration; whereas the century precipitation variation due to climate change could exacerbate forest watershed hydrological processes and add uncertainties to the processes. In this study, the multivariate statisitcal analysis technique was employed to identify a century temporal trend of precipitation in forest watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB). Seveal surface water monitoring stations in the LMRB, located in forest watersheds with very little land use disturbance and a century record, were selected to obtain precipitation data. Using frequency distribution analysis with HYDSTRA model, we found that the mean annual precipitation in a decadal scale increased as time elapsed over a 100-year period. Our study further revealed that the precipitation intensity for one-hour duration increased sigificantly in every 10 years for a 100-year period. During this period, the annual mean dry day frequency decreased in a decadal scale, whereas the annual mean wet day frequency increased for the same scale. Results indicated the precipitation pattern has been altered in the LMRB and the selected forest watersheds in this basin seems to become wetter during the past 100 years as a result of climate change.

The Sensetivity of Flood Frequency Analysis on Record Length in Continuous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, L.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA), sufficiently long data series are important to get more reliable results. Compared to return periods of interest, at-site FFA usually needs large data sets. Generally, the precision of at site estimators and time-sampling errors are associated with the length of a gauged record. In this work, we quantify the difference with various record lengths. we use generalized extreme value (GEV) and Log Pearson type III (LP3), two traditional methods on annual maximum stream flows to undertake FFA, and propose quantitative ways, relative difference in median and interquartile range (IQR) to compare the flood frequency performances on different record length from selected 350 USGS gauges, which have more than 70 years record length in Continuous United States. Also, we group those gauges into different regions separately based on hydrological unit map and discuss the geometry impacts. The results indicate that long record length can avoid imposing an upper limit on the degree of sophistication. Working with relatively longer record length may lead accurate results than working with shorter record length. Furthermore, the influence of hydrologic unites for the watershed boundary dataset on those gauges also be presented. The California region is the most sensitive to record length, while gauges in the east perform steady.

Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiwen; Wurbs, Ralph

2018-06-01

Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP) modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

High resolution weather data for urban hydrological modelling and impact assessment, ICT requirements and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van Riemsdijk, Birna

2013-04-01

Hydrological analysis of urban catchments requires high resolution rainfall and catchment information because of the small size of these catchments, high spatial variability of the urban fabric, fast runoff processes and related short response times. Rainfall information available from traditional radar and rain gauge networks does no not meet the relevant scales of urban hydrology. A new type of weather radars, based on X-band frequency and equipped with Doppler and dual polarimetry capabilities, promises to provide more accurate rainfall estimates at the spatial and temporal scales that are required for urban hydrological analysis. Recently, the RAINGAIN project was started to analyse the applicability of this new type of radars in the context of urban hydrological modelling. In this project, meteorologists and hydrologists work closely together in several stages of urban hydrological analysis: from the acquisition procedure of novel and high-end radar products to data acquisition and processing, rainfall data retrieval, hydrological event analysis and forecasting. The project comprises of four pilot locations with various characteristics of weather radar equipment, ground stations, urban hydrological systems, modelling approaches and requirements. Access to data processing and modelling software is handled in different ways in the pilots, depending on ownership and user context. Sharing of data and software among pilots and with the outside world is an ongoing topic of discussion. The availability of high resolution weather data augments requirements with respect to the resolution of hydrological models and input data. This has led to the development of fully distributed hydrological models, the implementation of which remains limited by the unavailability of hydrological input data. On the other hand, if models are to be used in flood forecasting, hydrological models need to be computationally efficient to enable fast responses to extreme event conditions. This presentation will highlight ICT-related requirements and limitations in high resolution urban hydrological modelling and analysis. Further ICT challenges arise in provision of high resolution radar data for diverging information needs as well as in combination with other data sources in the urban environment. Different types of information are required for such diverse activities as operational flood protection, traffic management, large event organisation, business planning in shopping districts and restaurants, timing of family activities. These different information needs may require different configurations and data processing for radars and other data sources. An ICT challenge is to develop techniques for deciding how to automatically respond to these diverging information needs (e.g., through (semi-)automated negotiation). Diverse activities also provide a wide variety of information resources that can supplement traditional networks of weather sensors, such as rain sensors on cars and social media. Another ICT challenge is how to combine data from these different sources for answering a particular information need. Examples will be presented of solutions are currently being explored.

Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and Topmodel (Beven & Kirkby, 1979) in rural and forested areas. The distributed hydrological model is calibrated using observed streamflow information from the available events. Simulated peak discharges are then compared to observed discharges in these gauged cells, so the relative forecast errors are estimated for all the events. Flood frequency is introduced in the analysis in order to derive probability functions for relative flow error. The next step consists in the extension of the flood frequency error patterns to the corresponding subbasins so it is possible to characterize the accuracy of the simulation in the uncalibrated cells (typically ungaged basins). As a result, the operational flood simulation at every cell in the Besos catchment can be checked and validated (in a first approach) in terms of occurrence. Thus, the distributed warning system can take advantage of the modeling uncertainties for operational tasks.

A Geomorphic Analysis of Floodplain Lakes along the Embanked Lower Mississippi River for Managing Hydrologic Connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, Paul; Boot, Dax; Sounny-Slitinne, M. Anwar; Kristensen, Kristiaan

2015-04-01

A Geomorphic Analysis of Floodplain Lakes along the Embanked Lower Mississippi River for Managing Hydrologic Connectivity Floodplain lakes are vital to the environmental integrity of lowland rivers. Embankment by levees (dikes) for flood control greatly reduces the size of lowland floodplains and is detrimental to the quality and functioning of floodplain water bodies, presenting a challenge to government agencies charged with environmental management. The embanked floodplain of the Lower Mississippi River is an enormous surface which includes a variety of lake types formed by geomorphic and anthropogenic processes. While much is known about the channel and hydrologic regime, very little is known about the physical structure and functioning of the embanked floodplain of the lower Mississippi. Importantly, management agencies do not have an inventory of the basic characteristics (e.g., type, frequency, location, size, shape) of water bodies within the lower Mississippi embanked floodplain. An analysis of lakes along the Lower Mississippi River embanked floodplain is performed by utilizing the National Hydrographic Dataset (NHD) from the U.S. Geological Survey, a LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM), as well as streamflow data from the USGS. The vector NHD data includes every official mapped water body (blue line polygons) on USGS topographic maps at scales of 1:100,000 and 1:24,000. Collectively, we identify thousands of discreet water bodies within the embanked floodplain. Utilizing planimetric properties the water bodies were classified into the following lake types: cutoffs (neck and chute), sloughs, crevasse (scour), local drainage (topographic), and borrow pits. The data is then statistically analyzed to examine significant differences in the spatial variability in lake types along the entire lower Mississippi embanked floodplain in association with geomorphic divisions and hydrologic regime. The total embanked floodplain area of the LMR is 7,303 km2,. The total area of floodplain lakes within the embanked floodplain is 382 km2, or 5.2% of the embanked floodplain surface area. Considerable variability in embanked floodplain area along the lower Mississippi, however, results in spatial variability in the frequency of specific lake types. Meander cutoff lakes represent the largest proportion of lake area, at 49%, with approximately half of this area comprised of artificial cutoff lakes. The next largest class of lakes are borrow pit lakes (at 16%), which are anthropogenic water bodies created for the process of levee (dike) construction and maintenance, but which represent valuable environmental habitat. Meander cutoff lakes are especially dominant in the upper reaches of the Lower Mississippi and diminish moving downstream, where the area of embanked floodplain also decreases. Interestingly, anthropogenic lakes (borrow pits) become increasingly prevalent further downstream and dominate over natural formed lakes. The location of lake types along the Lower Mississippi does not correspond with recent historic geomorphic and hydrologic activity. The highest frequency of meander cutoff and crevasse lakes are not located within floodplain sections which historically had the highest rates of lateral migration (m/yr) and flooding (duration). Although overbank hydrologic connectivity varies along the river, it does not vary necessarily where it would be most advantageous to the connectivity of specific types of lakes. The research results provide government agencies with a spatial inventory and methodological approach to improve the management of floodplain water bodies for sustaining valuable aquatic habitat, whether by artificially restricting or enhancing hydrologic connectivity. Key words: floodplain lakes, fluvial geomorphology, hydrologic connectivity, anthropogenic impacts, Lower Mississippi River

A parametric study of the value of hydrological information for irrigation and hydropower management of the Feather River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetzler, E.; Sand, F.; Stevenson, P.; Putnam, M.

1975-01-01

A case study analysis is presented of the relationships between improvements in the accuracy, frequency, and timeliness of information used in making hydrological forecasts and economic benefits in the areas of hydropower and irrigation. The area chosen for the case study is the Oroville Dam and Reservoir. Emphasis is placed on the use of timely and accurate mapping of the aerial extent of snow in the basin by earth resources survey systems such as LANDSAT. The subject of benefits resulting from improved runoff forecasts is treated in a generalized way without specifying the source of the improvements.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

Flood Frequency Analyses Using a Modified Stochastic Storm Transposition Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Kiani, M.

2015-12-01

Research shows that areas with similar topography and climatic environment have comparable precipitation occurrences. Reproduction and realization of historical rainfall events provide foundations for frequency analysis and the advancement of meteorological studies. Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) is a method for such a purpose and enables us to perform hydrologic frequency analyses by transposing observed historical storm events to the sites of interest. However, many previous studies in SST reveal drawbacks from simplified Probability Density Functions (PDFs) without considering restrictions for transposing rainfalls. The goal of this study is to stochastically examine the impacts of extreme events on all locations in a homogeneity zone. Since storms with the same probability of occurrence on homogenous areas do not have the identical hydrologic impacts, the authors utilize detailed precipitation parameters including the probability of occurrence of certain depth and the number of occurrence of extreme events, which are both incorporated into a joint probability function. The new approach can reduce the bias from uniformly transposing storms which erroneously increases the probability of occurrence of storms in areas with higher rainfall depths. This procedure is iterated to simulate storm events for one thousand years as the basis for updating frequency analysis curves such as IDF and FFA. The study area is the Upper Trinity River watershed including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex with a total area of 6,500 mi2. It is the first time that SST method is examined in such a wide scale with 20 years of radar rainfall data.

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

Evidences of Significant Nonstationarity in Precipitation Extremes over Urbanizing Areas in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, J.; H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2014-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the analytically perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and concomitant land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which inturn effects the policy and decision-making. Past studies provided sufficient evidences on changes in the characteristics of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes and further it has been attributed to climate change and urbanization, which indicates the presence of significant nonstationary in the Indian monsoon extremes. Therefore, a comprehensive nonstationary frequency analysis must be conducted all over India to obtain realistic return periods. The present study aims to conduct a nonstationary frequency analysis of the precipitation extremes over India at 1o resolution for a period of 1901-2004, with the implementation of the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) parameters. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationary in different combinations of distribution parameters and regression techniques (families of parametric polynomials and nonparametric/smoothing cubic spline), which overcomes the limitations of the previous studies. Further, for identification of urban, urbanizing and rural grids, an population density data has been utilized. The results showed the significant differences in the stationary and nonstationary return periods for the urbanizing grids, when compared to urbanized and rural grids. The results give implications of presence of nonstationary in the precipitation extremes more prominently in urbanizing areas compare to urbanized and rural areas.

Concentration-discharge relationships to understand the interplay between hydrological and biogeochemical processes: insights from data analysis and numerical experiments in headwater catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Dreuzy, J. R.; Marçais, J.; Moatar, F.; Minaudo, C.; Courtois, Q.; Thomas, Z.; Longuevergne, L.; Pinay, G.

2017-12-01

Integration of hydrological and biogeochemical processes led to emerging patterns at the catchment scale. Monitoring in rivers reflects the aggregation of these effects. While discharge time series have been measured for decades, high frequency water quality monitoring in rivers now provides prominent measurements to characterize the interplay between hydrological and biogeochemical processes, especially to infer the processes that happen in the heterogeneous subsurface. However, we still lack frameworks to relate observed patterns to specific processes, because of the "organized complexity" of hydrological systems. Indeed, it is unclear what controls, for example, patterns in concentration-discharge (C/Q) relationships due to non-linear processes and hysteresis effects. Here we develop a non-intensive process-based model to test how the integration of different landforms (i.e. geological heterogeneities and structures, topographical features) with different biogeochemical reactivity assumptions (e.g. reactive zone locations) can shape the overall water quality time series. With numerical experiments, we investigate typical patterns in high frequency C/Q relationships. In headwater basins, we found that typical hysteretic patterns in C/Q relationships observed in data time series can be attributed to differences in water and solute locations stored across the hillslope. At the catchment scale though, these effects tend to average out by integrating contrasted hillslopes' landforms. Together these results suggest that information contained in headwater water quality monitoring can be used to understand how hydrochemical processes determine downstream conditions.

Evaluation of the flood hydrology in the Colorado Front Range using precipitation, streamflow, and paleoflood data for the Big Thompson River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.; Costa, J.E.

1988-01-01

A multidisciplinary study of precipitation and streamflow data and paleohydrologic studies of channel features was made to analyze the flood hydrology of foothill and mountain streams in the Front Range of Colorado, with emphasis on the Big Thompson River basin, because conventional hydrologic analyses do not adequately characterize the flood hydrology. In the foothills of Colorado, annual floodflows are derived from snowmelt at high elevations in the mountain regions, from rainfall at low elevation in the plains or plateau regions, or from a combination of rain falling on snow or mixed population hydrology. Above approximately 7,500 ft, snowmelt dominates; rain does not contribute to the flood potential. Regional flood-frequency relations were developed and compared with conventional flood-estimating technique results, including an evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of the probable maximum flood. Evaluation of streamflow data and paleoflood investigations provide an alternative for evaluating flood hydrology and the safety of dams. The study indicates the need for additional data collection and research to understand the complexities of the flood hydrology in mountainous regions, especially its effects on flood-plain management and the design of structures in the flood plain. (USGS)

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN GROWTH OF PINUS PALUSTRIS AND PINUS ELLIOTTII GROWING ALONG A HYDROLOGICAL GRADIENT IN CENTRAL FLORIDA

EPA Science Inventory

Land-use change and urbanization has led to changes in the hydrologic regime in wet central Florida, with a trend toward lowered water table levels. These hydrologic changes are having environmental consequences in wetlands, where shifts in species composition and fire frequency...

Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhang, Miao; Wang, Linying; Zhou, Tian

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961-2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118-262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21-99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982-2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11-26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post-processing, while the difference between the two predictions decreases. This suggests that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for the hydrological drought forecasting in the Anthropocene, and the predictability for human interventions needs more attention.

Mining nitrate concentration patterns from high-frequency in situ monitoring: a step towards more detailed understanding of hydrological processes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubert, Alice; Houska, Tobias; Plesca, Ina; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

2015-04-01

Recently developed sensing technics allow collecting a considerable amount of high-frequency data; not only for hydrologic parameters (water levels, rainfall, etc.) but also for water chemistry. With devices such as in situ spectrophotometer, nitrate concentration can be monitored down to sub-hourly intervals. Thus, opening the way to new questions: what about daily or sub-daily instream nitrate concentration variations? What do these newly observed variations tell us about hydrological processes? In the Vollnkirchener Bach catchment, a headwater creek flows through a human impacted landscape dominated by agricultural and forest use and including a small settlement. Since March 2013, a Pro-PS device has been installed at the gauging station (monitored since 2011). Nitrate concentration is measured every 15 minutes, discharge and water temperature every 5 minutes. Data mining, more precisely motif discovery, is performed on these time series to identify high-resolution patterns. Spectral analysis highlighted that, in data measured at sub-hourly sampling frequency, variations up to a few hours are more likely to be dominated by measurement noise rather than real-world fluctuations. Therefore, we focus on daily motifs and flood patterns (given the fact that hydrological conditions are changing during flood events, we assume that nitrate concentration changes are depicting real processes). Various flood motifs were extracted: (1) nitrate can either be diluted or (2) concentrated, or (3) both (dilution followed by a bumpy recession curve indicating nitrate enrichment at the end of the flood). In addition to these classical nutrient-discharge behaviors, a variety of other interesting motifs were highlighted. (4) A daily nitrate cycle is clearly observed, but only during a specific year period. (5) Lag to peak time between parameters differentiate flood patterns: sometimes nitrate peaks first, sometimes discharge peaks first. (6) Furthermore, we are able to pinpoint the contributions of a combined sewer overflow, as it creates a different motif from diffuse nitrate inflows from adjacent agricultural fields. We look into the other hydrological parameters to explain this variety of patterns and their occurrence time.

Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Reilly, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon

PubMed Central

Röpke, Cristhiana P.; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J. G.; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H. S.; Winemiller, Kirk O.

2017-01-01

Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon. PMID:28071701

Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon.

PubMed

Röpke, Cristhiana P; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J G; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H S; Winemiller, Kirk O

2017-01-10

Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon.

Assessment of an improved hydrological loading model from space geodesy: case study in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, Joëlle; Boy, Jean-Paul; Durand, Frédéric; Mémin, Anthony

2017-04-01

Loading effects are crustal deformations induced by ocean, atmosphere and continental water mass redistributions. In this study we focus on hydrological loading effect monitored by space geodesy and in particular by GNSS and GRACE. Classically, hydrological loading models take into account snow and soil-moisture but don't consider surface waters (rivers, lakes…). As a result, huge discrepancies between GPS observations and those models arise around large rivers such as the Amazon where nearly half of the vertical signal cannot be explained by the combination of atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological loading models. To better resolve the hydrological signal, we improve the continental water storage models computed from soil-moisture and snow GLDAS/Noah or MERRA data sets by including surface water runoff. We investigate how continental water storage model improvements are supported by GNSS and GRACE observations in South America main river basins: Amazon, Orinoco and Parana. In this area the hydrological effects are among the largest in the world mainly due to the river level variations. We present the results of time series analyses with spectral and principal component analysis (PCA) methods. We extract the dominant spatio-temporal annual mode. We also identify and characterize the spatio-temporal changes in the annual hydrology signal, which is the key to a better understanding of the water cycle variations of those major rivers. We demonstrate that it is crucial to take into account the river contribution in fluid signatures before investigating high-frequency variability and episodic events.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

PubMed Central

Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

PubMed

Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

2016-01-01

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

Cumulative effects of wetland drainage on watershed-scale subsurface hydrologic connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Ameli, A.

2017-12-01

Subsurface hydrologic connectivity influences hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological responses within watersheds. However, information about the location, duration, and frequency of subsurface hydrologic connections within wetlandscapes and between wetlandscapes and streams is often not available. This leads to a lack of understanding of the potential effects of human modifications of the landscape, including wetland degradation and removal, on subsurface hydrologic connectivity and therefore watershed responses. Herein, we develop a computationally efficient, physically-based subsurface hydrologic connectivity model that explicitly characterizes the effects of wetland degradation and removal on the distribution, length, and timing of subsurface hydrologic connectivity within a wetland-dominated watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. We run the model using a time series of wetland inventories that reflect incremental wetland loss from 1962, to 1993, and to 2009. We also consider a potential future wetland loss scenario based on removal of all wetlands outside of the protected areas of the watershed. Our findings suggest that wetland degradation and removal over this period increased the average length, transit time, and frequency of subsurface hydrologic connections to the regional surface waters, resulting in decreased baseflow in the major river network. This study provides important insights that can be used by wetland managers and policy makers to support watershed-scale wetland protection and restoration plans to improve water resource management.

Annual compilation and analysis of hydrologic data for urban studies in the Bryan, Texas, metropolitan area, 1969

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, W.D.

1972-01-01

Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. 1. To determine, on the basis of historical data and hydrologic analyses, the magnitude and frequency of floods. 2. To document and define the areal extent of floods of greater than ordinary magnitude. 3. To determine the effect of urban development on flood peaks and volume. 4. To provide applied research facilities for studies at Texas A & M University at College Stations. This report, the first in a series of reports to be published annually, is primarily applicable to objectives 2, 3, and 4. The report presents the basic hydrologic data collected in two study areas during the 1969 water year (October 1, 1968, to September 30, 1969) and basic hydrologic data collected during part of the 1968 water year (April 5, 1968, to September 30, 1968). The locations of the two basins within the study area, Burton Creek and Hudson Creek, are shown on figure 1.

Hydrologic Evaluation of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrivals for GPM over Nanliu River Basin in Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenqing, L.; Sheng, C.; Chaoying, H.

2017-12-01

The core satellite of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched on 27 February2014 with two core sensors dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) and microwave imager (GMI). The algorithm of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) blends the advantages of currently most popular satellite-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) algorithms, i.e. TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) ADDIN EN.CITE ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA , Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS).Therefore, IMERG is deemed to be the state-of-art precipitation product with high spatio-temporal resolution of 0.1°/30min. The real-time and post real-time IMERG products are now available online at https://stormpps.gsfc.nasa.gov/storm. Early studies about assessment of IMERG with gauge observations or analysis products show that the current version GPM Day-1 product IMERG demonstrates promising performance over China [1], Europe [2], and United States [3]. However, few studies are found to study the IMERG' potentials of hydrologic utility.In this study, the real-time and final run post real-time IMERG products are hydrologically evaluated with gauge analysis product as reference over Nanliu River basin (Fig.1) in Southern China since March 2014 to February 2017 with Xinanjiang model. Statistics metrics Relative Bias (RB), Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CC), Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSCE) index will be used to compare the stream flow simulated with IMERG to the observed stream flow. This timely hydrologic evaluation is expected to offer insights into IMERG' potentials in hydrologic utility and thus provide useful feedback to the IMERG algorithm developers and the hydrologic users.

Sensitivity of drainage morphometry based hydrological response (GIUH) of a river basin to the spatial resolution of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Ramendra; Jain, Vikrant

2018-02-01

Drainage network pattern and its associated morphometric ratios are some of the important plan form attributes of a drainage basin. Extraction of these attributes for any basin is usually done by spatial analysis of the elevation data of that basin. These planform attributes are further used as input data for studying numerous process-response interactions inside the physical premise of the basin. One of the important uses of the morphometric ratios is its usage in the derivation of hydrologic response of a basin using GIUH concept. Hence, accuracy of the basin hydrological response to any storm event depends upon the accuracy with which, the morphometric ratios can be estimated. This in turn, is affected by the spatial resolution of the source data, i.e. the digital elevation model (DEM). We have estimated the sensitivity of the morphometric ratios and the GIUH derived hydrograph parameters, to the resolution of source data using a 30 meter and a 90 meter DEM. The analysis has been carried out for 50 drainage basins in a mountainous catchment. A simple and comprehensive algorithm has been developed for estimation of the morphometric indices from a stream network. We have calculated all the morphometric parameters and the hydrograph parameters for each of these basins extracted from two different DEMs, with different spatial resolutions. Paired t-test and Sign test were used for the comparison. Our results didn't show any statistically significant difference among any of the parameters calculated from the two source data. Along with the comparative study, a first-hand empirical analysis about the frequency distribution of the morphometric and hydrologic response parameters has also been communicated. Further, a comparison with other hydrological models suggests that plan form morphometry based GIUH model is more consistent with resolution variability in comparison to topographic based hydrological model.

Study of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events under Consideration of Climate Change in terms of Flood Protection Design Standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B.-Z.

2012-04-01

A study of Trend and Shift on annual maximum daily data over 500 raingauges with data length of 80 years or longer in the Ohio River Basin U.S. demonstrated a significant increase in variance of the data over time. The area-average increase in standard deviation is 23% for the recent 40 years (1959 - 1998) in comparison with the earlier 40-60 years (1919 or earlier - 1958). This implies that more and more extreme hydrometeorological events such as extreme rainfalls and droughts could be observed in the future years. The centurial flood disaster of August 8-10 2009 in the mid-southern Taiwan caused by Morakot Typhoon and the extraordinary drought lasting from winter 2009 to early summer 2010 wreaking havoc of a vast area of south-west China mainland were two good examples of the extremes. This variation could attribute to climate change. It challenges the hydrologic frequency analysis. Thus, exploration of a robust and reliable approach to precipitation frequency analysis becomes an imminent issue in hydrologic design studies. This paper introduces a novel hydrometeorological approach, the Regional L-moments method (RLM), to rainfall frequency analysis. There are two fatal weaknesses in FA: 1) There is no analytical way to derive a theoretical distribution to best fit the data; 2) The theoretical true value of a frequency such as 50-y or 100-y is unknown forever. The RLM, which is developed based on the order statistics and the concept of hydrometeorological homogeneity, demonstrates unbiasedness of parameter estimates and robust to outliers, and reduces the uncertainties of frequency estimates as well via the real data in Ohio River Basin of the U.S. and in the Taihu Lake Basin of China. Further study indicated that the variation of the frequency estimates such as 10-year, 100-year, 500-year, etc. is not normal as suggested in current textbooks. Actually, the frequency estimates vary asymmetrically from positive skew to negative skew when estimates go through from common frequencies to rare frequencies. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for a design watershed or a given storm area at a particular location at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climate trends (WMO, 2009). The PMP has been widely used by many hydrologists to determine the probable maximum flood (PMF) critical to the design of a variety of hydrological structures and other high profile infrastructures such as nuclear power-generation station with respect to flood-protection, for which a high level safety is required. What is the impact of climate change on PMP estimation? Actually, in the definition of PMP, there is "no allowance made for long-term climate trends" (WMO, 2009). However, when people are talking about impact of climate change on PMP estimation, two things may be taken into account practically: (1) To affect the precipitable water as a result of increase of SST; (2) Effect on the selection of the transposed storm because more extreme storms would occur due to climate change and more potential candidates to be used for storm transposition. The occurrence of a severe rainfall storm could alter the PMP estimates. A good example is the lashing of the Typhoon Morakot of 8 - 10 Aug. 2009 on Taiwan Island that set up new rainfall picture. What is the effect of topography on rainfall is another big issue in PMP estimation. Many observations of precipitation in mountainous areas show a general increase in precipitation with elevation. Practically, the effect of topography on rainfall should be taken into account in PMP estimation and implemented by the storm separation technique. The Step-Duration-Orographic-Intensification-Factor (SDOIF) Method, which was developed based on statistics analysis of extreme rainfalls in the storm area, can practically be used as storm separation technique to decouple the Morakot storm rainfalls into two components, convergence component and orographic component. Then, the convergence component can be transposed in a wider area for PMP estimation at a design location in the East Asia region. At last, this paper provides a clue for the first time on relationship between the frequency analysis and the PMP estimation in terms of hydrologic engineering design studies.

One hundred years of return period: Strengths and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, E.; Fiori, A.; Grimaldi, S.; Lombardo, F.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2015-10-01

One hundred years from its original definition by Fuller, the probabilistic concept of return period is widely used in hydrology as well as in other disciplines of geosciences to give an indication on critical event rareness. This concept gains its popularity, especially in engineering practice for design and risk assessment, due to its ease of use and understanding; however, return period relies on some basic assumptions that should be satisfied for a correct application of this statistical tool. Indeed, conventional frequency analysis in hydrology is performed by assuming as necessary conditions that extreme events arise from a stationary distribution and are independent of one another. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the properties of return period when the independence condition is omitted; hence, we explore how the different definitions of return period available in literature affect results of frequency analysis for processes correlated in time. We demonstrate that, for stationary processes, the independence condition is not necessary in order to apply the classical equation of return period (i.e., the inverse of exceedance probability). On the other hand, we show that the time-correlation structure of hydrological processes modifies the shape of the distribution function of which the return period represents the first moment. This implies that, in the context of time-dependent processes, the return period might not represent an exhaustive measure of the probability of failure, and that its blind application could lead to misleading results. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of Equivalent Return Period, which controls the probability of failure still preserving the virtue of effectively communicating the event rareness.

Characterizing hyporheic exchange processes using high-frequency electrical conductivity-discharge relationships on subhourly to interannual timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singley, Joel G.; Wlostowski, Adam N.; Bergstrom, Anna J.; Sokol, Eric R.; Torrens, Christa L.; Jaros, Chris; Wilson, Colleen E.; Hendrickson, Patrick J.; Gooseff, Michael N.

2017-05-01

Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships are often used to quantify source water contributions and biogeochemical processes occurring within catchments, especially during discrete hydrological events. Yet, the interpretation of C-Q hysteresis is often confounded by complexity of the critical zone, such as numerous source waters and hydrochemical nonstationarity. Consequently, researchers must often ignore important runoff pathways and geochemical sources/sinks, especially the hyporheic zone because it lacks a distinct hydrochemical signature. Such simplifications limit efforts to identify processes responsible for the transience of C-Q hysteresis over time. To address these limitations, we leverage the hydrologic simplicity and long-term, high-frequency Q and electrical conductivity (EC) data from streams in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. In this two end-member system, EC can serve as a proxy for the concentration of solutes derived from the hyporheic zone. We utilize a novel approach to decompose loops into subhysteretic EC-Q dynamics to identify individual mechanisms governing hysteresis across a wide range of timescales. We find that hydrologic and hydraulic processes govern EC response to diel and seasonal Q variability and that the effects of hyporheic mixing processes on C-Q transience differ in short and long streams. We also observe that variable hyporheic turnover rates govern EC-Q patterns at daily to interannual timescales. Last, subhysteretic analysis reveals a period of interannual freshening of glacial meltwater streams related to the effects of unsteady flow on hyporheic exchange. The subhysteretic analysis framework we introduce may be applied more broadly to constrain the processes controlling C-Q transience and advance understanding of catchment evolution.

Geo-hydrological risk management for civil protection purposes in the urban area of Genoa (Liguria, NW Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandolini, P.; Cevasco, A.; Firpo, M.; Robbiano, A.; Sacchini, A.

2012-04-01

Over the past century the municipal area of Genoa has been affected by recurring flood events and several landslides that have caused severe damage to urbanized areas on both the coastal-fluvial plains and surrounding slopes, sometimes involving human casualties. The analysis of past events' annual distribution indicates that these phenomena have occurred with rising frequency in the last seventy years, following the main land use change due to the development of harbour, industrial, and residential areas, which has strongly impacted geomorphological processes. Consequently, in Genoa, civil protection activities are taking on an increasing importance for geo-hydrological risk mitigation. The current legislative framework assigns a key role in disaster prevention to municipalities, emergency plan development, as well as response action coordination in disaster situations. In view of the geomorphological and environmental complexity of the study area and referring to environmental laws, geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies adopted by local administrators for civil protection purposes are presented as examples of current land/urban management related to geo-hydrological hazards. Adopted measures have proven to be effective on several levels (planning, management, structure, understanding, and publication) in different cases. Nevertheless, the last flooding event (4 November 2011) has shown that communication and public information concerning the perception of geo-hydrological hazard can be improved.

Statistical analysis of hydrological response in urbanising catchments based on adaptive sampling using inter-amount times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Schleiss, Marc

2017-04-01

Urban catchments are typically characterised by a more flashy nature of the hydrological response compared to natural catchments. Predicting flow changes associated with urbanisation is not straightforward, as they are influenced by interactions between impervious cover, basin size, drainage connectivity and stormwater management infrastructure. In this study, we present an alternative approach to statistical analysis of hydrological response variability and basin flashiness, based on the distribution of inter-amount times. We analyse inter-amount time distributions of high-resolution streamflow time series for 17 (semi-)urbanised basins in North Carolina, USA, ranging from 13 to 238 km2 in size. We show that in the inter-amount-time framework, sampling frequency is tuned to the local variability of the flow pattern, resulting in a different representation and weighting of high and low flow periods in the statistical distribution. This leads to important differences in the way the distribution quantiles, mean, coefficient of variation and skewness vary across scales and results in lower mean intermittency and improved scaling. Moreover, we show that inter-amount-time distributions can be used to detect regulation effects on flow patterns, identify critical sampling scales and characterise flashiness of hydrological response. The possibility to use both the classical approach and the inter-amount-time framework to identify minimum observable scales and analyse flow data opens up interesting areas for future research.

Hydrological simulations in the Rhine basin.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Beersma, J; Lenderink, G

2005-01-01

Simulations with regional climate models (RCMs), carried out for the Rhine basin, have been analyzed in the context of implications of the possible future discharge of the Rhine river. In a first analysis, the runoff generated by the RCMs is compared to observations, in order to detect the way the RCMs treat anomalies in precipitation in their land surface component. A second analysis is devoted to the frequency distribution of area averaged precipitation, and the impact of selection of various driving global climate models.

Effects of Atmospheric Nitrate on an Upland Stream of the Northeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, S. D.; Shanley, J. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Kendall, C.

2009-05-01

Excess nitrogen cascades through terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and affects stream nitrate concentrations in upland forests where atmospheric deposition is an important source of anthropogenic nitrogen. We will discuss approaches including high-frequency sampling, isotopic tracers, and end-member mixing analysis that can be used to decipher the sources, transformations, and hydrological processes that affect nitrate transport through forested upland catchments to streams. We present results of studies at the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, USA, a site where we have intensively measured stream nitrate concentrations during baseflow and stormflow. Stream nitrate concentrations are typically low and nearly 75% of annual inorganic N inputs from atmospheric deposition are retained within the catchment. However, high concentrations and stream loadings of nitrate occur during storm events due to source variation and hydrological flushing of nitrate from catchment soils. Using isotopic tracers and end-member mixing analysis, we have quantified source inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate and show that this stream is directly affected by nitrogen pollution. Using a long-term record of stream hydrochemistry and our findings on event- scale nitrate flushing dynamics, we then explore how stream nitrate loading may respond to anthropogenic climate forcing during the next century. Results suggest that stream runoff and nitrate loadings will change during future emission scenarios (i.e. longer growing seasons and higher winter precipitation rates). Understanding the timing and magnitude of hydrological and hydrochemical responses is important because climate change effects on catchment hydrology may alter how nitrate is retained, produced, and hydrologically flushed in headwater ecosystems with implications for aquatic metabolism, nutrient export from catchments, and downstream eutrophication.

Evaluating Multispectral Snowpack Reflectivity With Changing Snow Correlation Lengths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, Do Hyuk; Barros, Ana P.; Kim, Edward J.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the sensitivity of multispectral reflectivity to changing snow correlation lengths. Matzler's ice-lamellae radiative transfer model was implemented and tested to evaluate the reflectivity of snow correlation lengths at multiple frequencies from the ultraviolet (UV) to the microwave bands. The model reveals that, in the UV to infrared (IR) frequency range, the reflectivity and correlation length are inversely related, whereas reflectivity increases with snow correlation length in the microwave frequency range. The model further shows that the reflectivity behavior can be mainly attributed to scattering rather than absorption for shallow snowpacks. The largest scattering coefficients and reflectivity occur at very small correlation lengths (approximately 10(exp -5 m) for frequencies higher than the IR band. In the microwave range, the largest scattering coefficients are found at millimeter wavelengths. For validation purposes, the ice-lamella model is coupled with a multilayer snow physics model to characterize the reflectivity response of realistic snow hydrological processes. The evolution of the coupled model simulated reflectivities in both the visible and the microwave bands is consistent with satellite-based reflectivity observations in the same frequencies. The model results are also compared with colocated in situ snow correlation length measurements (Cold Land Processes Field Experiment 2002-2003). The analysis and evaluation of model results indicate that the coupled multifrequency radiative transfer and snow hydrology modeling system can be used as a forward operator in a data-assimilation framework to predict the status of snow physical properties, including snow correlation length.

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.; Lombardo, Federico

2018-01-01

The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion of the literature regards such patterns as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though the complexity of hydrological systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations and attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques have been developed to make and justify statements about tendencies in the historical data, which are often used to predict future events. Testing trend hypothesis on observed time series is widespread in the hydro-meteorological literature mainly due to the interest in detecting consequences of human activities on the hydrological cycle. This analysis usually relies on the application of some null hypothesis significance tests (NHSTs) for slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, such as Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, or similar, to summary statistics of hydrological time series (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, the reliability of this application has seldom been explored in detail. This paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, and logical flaws of NHST for trends in the analysis of hydrological data from three different points of view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, and practical. Based on a review of NHST rationale, and basic statistical definitions of stationarity, nonstationarity, and ergodicity, we show that even if the empirical estimation of trends in hydrological time series is always feasible from a numerical point of view, it is uninformative and does not allow the inference of nonstationarity without assuming a priori additional information on the underlying stochastic process, according to deductive reasoning. This prevents the use of trend NHST outcomes to support nonstationary frequency analysis and modeling. We also show that the correlation structures characterizing hydrological time series might easily be underestimated, further compromising the attempt to draw conclusions about trends spanning the period of records. Moreover, even though adjusting procedures accounting for correlation have been developed, some of them are insufficient or are applied only to some tests, while some others are theoretically flawed but still widely applied. In particular, using 250 unimpacted stream flow time series across the conterminous United States (CONUS), we show that the test results can dramatically change if the sequences of annual values are reproduced starting from daily stream flow records, whose larger sizes enable a more reliable assessment of the correlation structures.

Flood plain analysis for Petris, , Troas, and Monoros, tia watersheds, the Arad department, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Győri, M.-M.; Haidu, I.

2012-04-01

The present study sets out to determine the flood plains corresponding to flood discharges having 10, 50 and 100 year recurrence intervals on the Monoroštia, Petriš and Troaš Rivers, located in Western Romania, the Arad department. The data of the study area is first collected and pre-processed in ArcGIS. It consists of land use data, soil data, the DEM, stream gauges' and meteorological stations' locations, on the basis of which the watersheds' hydrologic parameters' are computed using the Geospatial Hydrologic Modelling Extension (HEC Geo-HMS). HEC Geo-HMS functions as an interface between ArcGIS and HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre- Hydrologic Modelling System) and converts the data collected and generated in ArcGIS to data useable by HEC-HMS. The basin model component in HEC-HMS represents the physical watershed. It facilitates the effective rainfall computation on the basis of the input hyetograph, passing the results to a transform function that converts the excess precipitation into runoff at the subwatersheds' outlet. This enables the estimation and creation of hydrographs for the ungauged watersheds. In the present study, the results are achieved through the SCS CN loss method and the SCS Unit hydrograph transform method. The simulations use rainfall data that is registered at the stations situated in the catchments' vicinity, data that spans over two decades (1989-2009) and which allows the rainfall hyetographs to be determined for the above mentioned return periods. The model will be calibrated against measured streamflow data from the gauging stations on the main rivers, leading to the adjustment of watershed parameters, such as the CN parameter. As the flood discharges for 10, 50 and 100 year return periods have been determined, the profile of the water surface elevation along the channel will be computed through a steady flow analysis, with HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre- River Analysis System). For each of the flood frequencies, a water surface TIN is generated and intersected with the DEM in order to create the flood plain polygons. The final result consists of the flood plain delineation and the water inundation depths for the 10, 50 and 100 year return period flood events. These could be further employed in a risk assessment. Key words : flood plain analysis, frequency analysis, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS. Aknowledgements This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013, co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/76841 with the title "Modern Doctoral Studies: Internationalization and Interdisciplinarity".

Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

2017-10-01

This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

Living with floods in the Jamuna floodplain (Bangladesh): fight or flight? Technological and societal responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruknul Ferdous, Md; Wesselink, Anna; Brandimarte, Luigia; Slager, Kymo; Mynett, Arthur; Zwarteveen, Margreet

2017-04-01

Building onto the general theory introduced by Di Baldassarre, this paper uses a socio-hydrological approach to describe human-flood interactions in the Jamuna floodplain, Bangladesh. In this vast space (a braided river bed of 6-16 km; floodplains up to 50 km wide) the differences between land and water are temporary and shifting. Government flood defence structures were constructed on the west bank only, while community initiatives exist on the east bank. As a result, there are several kinds of socio-hydrological spaces along, but also in the river, with different livelihoods and flood characteristics. This variety gives rise to co-existence of 'living with floods' and 'fighting floods' approaches. The analysis is based on recent fieldwork, in which information on historical and current livelihoods, migration and the floodplain system was collected at household level. Our analysis enables us to tentatively confirm the levee effect described by Di Baldassarre et al. (2013); however, his hypothesis that people move away from unprotected floodplains is only true to some extent. Adaptation in Bangladesh means first of all literally 'living with floods': being flooded with greater or lesser frequency. Key words: Bangladesh; Jamuna River; river flooding; socio-hydrological dynamics

Hydrological states and the resilience of deltaic forested wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.

2017-12-01

The flooding regime constitutes a set of chronic disturbances that are largely responsible for ecosystem structure. However, disturbances do not always constitute stresses to plants that survive because of adaptations to flooded conditions. We examine baldcypress-water tupelo forested wetlands in the delta of the Mississippi River as a case study in mechanisms by which hydrologic change shapes wetland ecosystem change, supported by experimental evidence from remote sensing, tree-ring and other field studies, and meta-analysis across the literature. Decreased hydrologic variability caused by water control structures has reduced the frequency of flood events that increase growth of baldcypress and favor its establishment by reducing competition from other species. Hydrologic modifications that lead to semi-permanent, stagnant flooding constitute semi-permanent disturbance that prevents regeneration of any trees, reduces growth of established trees, and reduces stand density by causing mortality of some trees. However, baldcypress trees in low-density stands appear to be generally adapted for long-term survival in stagnant conditions. Thus, initial decreases in stand density after impoundment do not necessarily portend continued conversion away from forest because reduced inter-tree competition is a negative feedback on mortality. Overall, a natural hydrologic regime with high variability in riverine flooding favors denser stands with greater diversity of tree species, and the present, controlled hydrologic regime that has largely eliminated riverine flooding favors open stands. Sea-level rise will increase salinity that quickly leads to forest conversion to marsh, but will also increase stagnant, freshwater flooding further inland. These drivers of hydrologic change reduce carbon assimilation by forests, both by reduced stand-level productivity and decreased forested area.

IMPACTS OF LAND USE ON HYDROLOGIC FLOW PERMANENCE IN HEADWATER STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

Extensive urbanization in the watershed can alter the stream hydrology by increasing peak runoff frequency and reducing base flows, causing subsequent impairment of stream community structure. In addition, development effectively eliminates some headwater streams, being piped an...

Hydrologic risk analysis in the Yangtze River basin through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y. R.; Huang, W. W.; Huang, G. H.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, K.; Li, Z.

2016-02-01

In this study, a bivariate hydrologic risk framework is proposed through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas, leading to a coupled GMM-copula method. In the coupled GMM-Copula method, the marginal distributions of flood peak, volume and duration are quantified through Gaussian mixture models and the joint probability distributions of flood peak-volume, peak-duration and volume-duration are established through copulas. The bivariate hydrologic risk is then derived based on the joint return period of flood variable pairs. The proposed method is applied to the risk analysis for the Yichang station on the main stream of the Yangtze River, China. The results indicate that (i) the bivariate risk for flood peak-volume would keep constant for the flood volume less than 1.0 × 105 m3/s day, but present a significant decreasing trend for the flood volume larger than 1.7 × 105 m3/s day; and (ii) the bivariate risk for flood peak-duration would not change significantly for the flood duration less than 8 days, and then decrease significantly as duration value become larger. The probability density functions (pdfs) of the flood volume and duration conditional on flood peak can also be generated through the fitted copulas. The results indicate that the conditional pdfs of flood volume and duration follow bimodal distributions, with the occurrence frequency of the first vertex decreasing and the latter one increasing as the increase of flood peak. The obtained conclusions from the bivariate hydrologic analysis can provide decision support for flood control and mitigation.

A hybrid wavelet analysis-cloud model data-extending approach for meteorologic and hydrologic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Ding, Hao; Singh, Vijay P.; Shang, Xiaosan; Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing

2015-05-01

For scientific and sustainable management of water resources, hydrologic and meteorologic data series need to be often extended. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, named WA-CM (wavelet analysis-cloud model), for data series extension. Wavelet analysis has time-frequency localization features, known as "mathematics microscope," that can decompose and reconstruct hydrologic and meteorologic series by wavelet transform. The cloud model is a mathematical representation of fuzziness and randomness and has strong robustness for uncertain data. The WA-CM approach first employs the wavelet transform to decompose the measured nonstationary series and then uses the cloud model to develop an extension model for each decomposition layer series. The final extension is obtained by summing the results of extension of each layer. Two kinds of meteorologic and hydrologic data sets with different characteristics and different influence of human activity from six (three pairs) representative stations are used to illustrate the WA-CM approach. The approach is also compared with four other methods, which are conventional correlation extension method, Kendall-Theil robust line method, artificial neural network method (back propagation, multilayer perceptron, and radial basis function), and single cloud model method. To evaluate the model performance completely and thoroughly, five measures are used, which are relative error, mean relative error, standard deviation of relative error, root mean square error, and Thiel inequality coefficient. Results show that the WA-CM approach is effective, feasible, and accurate and is found to be better than other four methods compared. The theory employed and the approach developed here can be applied to extension of data in other areas as well.

"Flooding Risk Analysis and the Understanding of Hydrological Disturbance due to the Rapid Urbanization in a Low-Scale Subwatershed in Houston Area". ( The project develops a relavant Model of flooding risk assessment to define the connection between increased streamflow/flooding and the rapid urban land development).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geldiyev, P.

2017-12-01

Rapid urban development and changing climate influences the frequency and magnitude of flooding in Houston area. This proposed project aims to evaluate the flooding risks with the current and future land use changes by 2040 for one subbasin of the San Jacinto Brazos/Neches-Trinity Coastal basin. Surface environments and streamflow data of the Clear Creek are analyzed and stimulated to discuss the possible impact of urbanization on the occurrence of floods. The streamflow data is analyzed and simulated with the application of the Geographic Information Systems and its extensions. Both hydrologic and hydraulic models of the Clear Creek are created with the use of HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software. Both models are duplicated for the year 2040, based on projected 2040 Landcover Maps developed by Houston and Galveston Area Council. This project examines a type of contemporary hydrologic disturbance and the interaction between land cover and changes in hydrological processes. Expected results will be very significant for urban development and flooding management.

Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

2008-05-01

The ability to map the relationship between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park is a key building block for the restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve habitat for wading bird species and to promote nesting. This paper reports on a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the Park We demonstrate that seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recording site are a) well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the Park, and b) are effective as predictors of Great Egret and White Ibis foraging numbers at the end of the nesting season when using a nonlinear Bayesian Hierarchical model that permits the estimation of a conditional distribution of bird populations given the seasonal statistics of stage at the index location. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty are both assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the recession rate, and the numbers of reversals in the recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the seasonal production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of wading bird foraging numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal and multi-decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions.

Challenges in Extracting Information From Large Hydrogeophysical-monitoring Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day-Lewis, F. D.; Slater, L. D.; Johnson, T.

2012-12-01

Over the last decade, new automated geophysical data-acquisition systems have enabled collection of increasingly large and information-rich geophysical datasets. Concurrent advances in field instrumentation, web services, and high-performance computing have made real-time processing, inversion, and visualization of large three-dimensional tomographic datasets practical. Geophysical-monitoring datasets have provided high-resolution insights into diverse hydrologic processes including groundwater/surface-water exchange, infiltration, solute transport, and bioremediation. Despite the high information content of such datasets, extraction of quantitative or diagnostic hydrologic information is challenging. Visual inspection and interpretation for specific hydrologic processes is difficult for datasets that are large, complex, and (or) affected by forcings (e.g., seasonal variations) unrelated to the target hydrologic process. New strategies are needed to identify salient features in spatially distributed time-series data and to relate temporal changes in geophysical properties to hydrologic processes of interest while effectively filtering unrelated changes. Here, we review recent work using time-series and digital-signal-processing approaches in hydrogeophysics. Examples include applications of cross-correlation, spectral, and time-frequency (e.g., wavelet and Stockwell transforms) approaches to (1) identify salient features in large geophysical time series; (2) examine correlation or coherence between geophysical and hydrologic signals, even in the presence of non-stationarity; and (3) condense large datasets while preserving information of interest. Examples demonstrate analysis of large time-lapse electrical tomography and fiber-optic temperature datasets to extract information about groundwater/surface-water exchange and contaminant transport.

Social dimensions of vulnerability to glacier-hydrology hazards in Peru and Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Carey, Mark; Huggel, Christian; Kargel, Jeffrey S.

2014-05-01

Snow and ice hazards affect populations worldwide, and prevention and adaptation plans must devote more attention to the human dimensions of these hazards. Historically, most research on glacier hazards has emphasized glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and rock-ice landslides. This work often focuses on technical approaches or scientific knowledge about these high-magnitude and low-frequency hazards. This study examines a different type of cryospheric hazard, one that is low-magnitude and high-frequency, especially under future climate change projections: the increasingly recognized hydrologic hazards related to runoff variability in downstream communities below shrinking glaciers. By focusing on actual water users in glacier-fed watersheds, the research helps illuminate key vulnerabilities to hydrological change. It demonstrates that people are indeed vulnerable to decreased runoff, but that these vulnerabilities must be analyzed in the context of global change, including socio-economic and political variables, and not just through technical or scientific approaches. The study examines water use for export-oriented agriculture in Peru's billion-dollar Chavimochic Project, which depends on a single canal from the Santa River that could be damaged by a GLOF or avalanche. Or the canal could experience declining water supplies in the future if water use increases, particularly due to international agricultural demands, while water supplies from glacial ice decreases. The study also provides insights from Khumbu, Nepal, where changing hydrological conditions are leading to reduced water access for household uses, declining crop yields, reduced water access for meeting the high water demands of tourists, and reduced hydro-electricity generation capabilities. Although these effects are widespread, there are clear patterns of socially determined vulnerability among the population, with low livelihood diversity an important indicator of increased susceptibility to harm. While focusing on hydrologic variability and vulnerability, this poster's societal orientation has far-reaching implications for the analysis of all cryospheric hazards where vulnerability and resilience are affected by a range of human and environmental forces.

Entropy-based derivation of generalized distributions for hydrometeorological frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-02-01

Frequency analysis of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes is needed for the design of hydraulic and civil infrastructure facilities as well as water resources management. A multitude of distributions have been employed for frequency analysis of these extremes. However, no single distribution has been accepted as a global standard. Employing the entropy theory, this study derived five generalized distributions for frequency analysis that used different kinds of information encoded as constraints. These distributions were the generalized gamma (GG), the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2), and the Halphen type A distribution (Hal-A), Halphen type B distribution (Hal-B) and Halphen type inverse B distribution (Hal-IB), among which the GG and GB2 distribution were previously derived by Papalexiou and Koutsoyiannis (2012) and the Halphen family was first derived using entropy theory in this paper. The entropy theory allowed to estimate parameters of the distributions in terms of the constraints used for their derivation. The distributions were tested using extreme daily and hourly rainfall data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) values were very small, which indicated that the five generalized distributions fitted the extreme rainfall data well. Among them, according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, generally the GB2 and Halphen family gave a better fit. Therefore, those general distributions are one of the best choices for frequency analysis. The entropy-based derivation led to a new way for frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes.

Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, G.; Kooy, M.; Kemerink, J. S.; Brandimarte, L.

2013-03-01

This paper offers a conceptual approach to explore the complex dynamics of floodplains as fully coupled human-water systems. A number of hydrologists have recently investigated the impact of human activities (such as flood control measures, land-use changes, and settlement patterns) on the frequency and severity of floods. Meanwhile, social scientists have shown how interactions between society and waters in floodplain areas, including the frequency and severity of floods, have an impact on the ways in which social relations unfold (in terms of governance processes, policies, and institutions) and societies are organised (spatially, politically, and socially). However, we argue that the interactions and associated feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. Thus, there is a need to better understand how the institutions and governance processes interact with hydrological processes in floodplains to influence the frequency and severity of floods, while (in turn) hydrological processes co-constitute the social realm and make a difference for how social relations unfold to shape governance processes and institutions. Our research goal, therefore, is not in identifying one or the other side of the cycle (hydrological or social), but in explaining the relationship between them: how, when, where, and why they interact, and to what result for both social relations and hydrological processes? We argue that long time series of hydrological and social data, along with remote sensing data, can be used to observe floodplain dynamics from unconventional approaches, and understand the complex interactions between water and human systems taking place in floodplain areas, across scales and levels of human impacts, and within different hydro-climatic conditions, socio-cultural settings, and modes of governance.

Towards understanding the dynamic behaviour of floodplains as human-water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, G.; Kooy, M.; Kemerink, J. S.; Brandimarte, L.

2013-08-01

This paper offers a conceptual approach to explore the complex dynamics of floodplains as fully coupled human-water systems. A number of hydrologists have recently investigated the impact of human activities (such as flood control measures, land-use changes, and settlement patterns) on the frequency and severity of floods. Meanwhile, social scientists have shown how interactions between society and waters in deltas and floodplain areas, including the frequency and severity of floods, have an impact on the ways in which social relations unfold (in terms of governance processes, policies, and institutions) and societies are organised (spatially, politically, and socially). However, we argue that the interactions and associated feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. Thus, there is a need to better understand how the institutions and governance processes interact with hydrological processes in deltas and floodplains to influence the frequency and severity of floods, while (in turn) hydrological processes co-constitute the social realm and make a difference for how social relations unfold to shape governance processes and institutions. Our research goal, therefore, is not in identifying one or the other side of the cycle (hydrological or social), but in explaining the relationship between them: how, when, where, and why they interact, and to what result for both social relations and hydrological processes? We argue that long time series of hydrological and social data, along with remote sensing data, can be used to observe floodplain dynamics from unconventional approaches, and understand the complex interactions between water and human systems taking place in floodplain areas, across scales and levels of human impacts, and within different hydro-climatic conditions, socio-cultural settings, and modes of governance.

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guetzkow, Lowell C.

1977-01-01

 Estimating relations have been developed to provide engineers and designers with improved techniques for defining flow-frequency characteristics to satisfy hydraulic planning and design requirements. The magnitude and frequency of floods up to the 100-year recurrence interval can be determined for most streams in Minnesota by methods presented. By multiple regression analysis, equations have been developed for estimating flood-frequency relations at ungaged sites on natural flow streams. Eight distinct hydrologic regions are delineated within the State with boundaries defined generally by river basin divides. Regression equations are provided for each region which relate selected frequency floods to significant basin parameters. For main-stem streams, graphs are presented showing floods for selected recurrence intervals plotted against contributing drainage area. Flow-frequency estimates for intervening sites along the Minnesota River, Mississippi River, and the Red River of the North can be derived from these graphs. Flood-frequency characteristics are tabulated for 201 paging stations having 10 or more years of record.

Can Low Frequency Measurements Be Good Enough? - A Statistical Assessment of Citizen Hydrology Streamflow Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davids, J. C.; Rutten, M.; Van De Giesen, N.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic data has traditionally been collected with permanent installations of sophisticated and relatively accurate but expensive monitoring equipment at limited numbers of sites. Consequently, the spatial coverage of the data is limited and costs are high. Achieving adequate maintenance of sophisticated monitoring equipment often exceeds local technical and resource capacity, and permanently deployed monitoring equipment is susceptible to vandalism, theft, and other hazards. Rather than using expensive, vulnerable installations at a few points, SmartPhones4Water (S4W), a form of Citizen Hydrology, leverages widely available mobile technology to gather hydrologic data at many sites in a manner that is repeatable and scalable. However, there is currently a limited understanding of the impact of decreased observational frequency on the accuracy of key streamflow statistics like minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff. As a first step towards evaluating the tradeoffs between traditional continuous monitoring approaches and emerging Citizen Hydrology methods, we randomly selected 50 active U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gauges in California. We used historical 15 minute flow data from 01/01/2008 through 12/31/2014 to develop minimum flow, maximum flow, and runoff values (7 year total) for each gauge. In order to mimic lower frequency Citizen Hydrology observations, we developed a bootstrap randomized subsampling with replacement procedure. We calculated the same statistics, along with their respective distributions, from 50 subsample iterations with four different subsampling intervals (i.e. daily, three day, weekly, and monthly). Based on our results we conclude that, depending on the types of questions being asked, and the watershed characteristics, Citizen Hydrology streamflow measurements can provide useful and accurate information. Depending on watershed characteristics, minimum flows were reasonably estimated with subsample intervals ranging from daily to monthly. However, maximum flows in most cases were poorly characterized, even at daily subsample intervals. In general, runoff volumes were accurately estimated from daily, three day, weekly, and even in some cases, monthly observations.

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F.

2012-12-01

Over the past decades, human water consumption has more than doubled, and reduced streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological droughts, i.e. the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow. Here, we quantify over the period 1960-2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological droughts worldwide. We simulated streamflow by the global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB at a 0.5 degree spatial resolution, and reduced the amount of streamflow with different levels of human water consumption over the period 1960-2010. We applied the commonly used variable threshold level method to identify below-normal water availability as the onset of hydrological droughts. We then standardized the deficit volume dividing relative to the threshold level to express the intensity of drought conditions to normal streamflow conditions. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow in many regions of the world. This subsequently intensified hydrological droughts regionally by 10-500%. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over western and central U.S., southern Europe, Asia, and southeastern Australia, whereas the impact of industrial and households' consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over eastern U.S., and western and central Europe. The results also show that drought frequency increased by more than 27% compared to pristine or natural condition as a result of human water consumption. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia, but also substantial over North America and Europe. Importantly, global population under severe hydrological droughts considerably increased from 0.7 billion in 1960 to 2.2 billion in 2010 due to rapid population growth. As a limited validation exercise, we compared simulated deficit volumes to those derived from observed river discharges for some important basins of the world. The comparison shows generally good agreement, but large discrepancies occurred when simulated river discharge failed to reproduce well the peak discharge and the mean amplitude in seasonal discharges, regardless of high correlation obtained from comparison of monthly discharges.

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression.All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application.Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis.This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Artificial intelligence techniques coupled with seasonality measures for hydrological regionalization of Q90 under Brazilian conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beskow, Samuel; de Mello, Carlos Rogério; Vargas, Marcelle M.; Corrêa, Leonardo de L.; Caldeira, Tamara L.; Durães, Matheus F.; de Aguiar, Marilton S.

2016-10-01

Information on stream flows is essential for water resources management. The stream flow that is equaled or exceeded 90% of the time (Q90) is one the most used low stream flow indicators in many countries, and its determination is made from the frequency analysis of stream flows considering a historical series. However, stream flow gauging network is generally not spatially sufficient to meet the necessary demands of technicians, thus the most plausible alternative is the use of hydrological regionalization. The objective of this study was to couple the artificial intelligence techniques (AI) K-means, Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), K-harmonic means (KHM), Fuzzy C-means (FCM) and Genetic K-means (GKA), with measures of low stream flow seasonality, for verification of its potential to delineate hydrologically homogeneous regions for the regionalization of Q90. For the performance analysis of the proposed methodology, location attributes from 108 watersheds situated in southern Brazil, and attributes associated with their seasonality of low stream flows were considered in this study. It was concluded that: (i) AI techniques have the potential to delineate hydrologically homogeneous regions in the context of Q90 in the study region, especially the FCM method based on fuzzy logic, and GKA, based on genetic algorithms; (ii) the attributes related to seasonality of low stream flows added important information that increased the accuracy of the grouping; and (iii) the adjusted mathematical models have excellent performance and can be used to estimate Q90 in locations lacking monitoring.

Regional intensity-duration-frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiaei, Farhad; Kankal, Murat; Anilan, Tugce; Yuksek, Omer

2018-01-01

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the ZDIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient ( R 2) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.

Hydrologic Modeling and Flood Frequency Analysis for Ordinary High Water Mark Delineation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

that may have adjacent floodplains and terraces. Each of these geomorphic features may have different characteristic sediment grain sizes, different...relationship between streamflow recurrence intervals and ERDC/CRREL TR-16-2 7 geomorphic features observed in the field. The bankfull channel is the cu... geomorphic features is one of many reasons described in this document why a specific recurrence interval cannot be used to determine the OHWM. At the same

Hydrologic and erosional impacts associated with an increased role of wildland fire on western rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Landscape plant community transitions across the Great Basin and Intermountain West have altered fire regimes and present large-scale consequences relative to rangeland hydrology. Extensive conversion of Great Basin shrub steppe to annual grasslands has increased fuel continuity and the frequency, ...

Frequency of floods from a burned chaparral watershed

Treesearch

Iraj Nasseri

1989-01-01

Effects of brush fire on hydrologic characteristics of chaparral watersheds were analyzed. An unburned chaparral produces moderate surface runoff. The vegetation promotes infiltration by retarding the runoff and providing temporary storage during intense rainfall. The hydrologic characteristics of chaparral watershed, however, are drastically changed by fires. The high...

Journal: Efficient Hydrologic Tracer-Test Design for Tracer-Mass Estimation and Sample Collection Frequency, 1 Method Development

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for the determination of basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test design can be difficult because of a lack of prior knowl...

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Hydrological characterization of cave drip waters in a porous limestone: Golgotha Cave, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Kashif; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Baker, Andy; Treble, Pauline C.

2018-02-01

Cave drip water response to surface meteorological conditions is complex due to the heterogeneity of water movement in the karst unsaturated zone. Previous studies have focused on the monitoring of fractured rock limestones that have little or no primary porosity. In this study, we aim to further understand infiltration water hydrology in the Tamala Limestone of SW Australia, which is Quaternary aeolianite with primary porosity. We build on our previous studies of the Golgotha Cave system and utilize the existing spatial survey of 29 automated cave drip loggers and a lidar-based flow classification scheme, conducted in the two main chambers of this cave. We find that a daily sampling frequency at our cave site optimizes the capture of drip variability with the least possible sampling artifacts. With the optimum sampling frequency, most of the drip sites show persistent autocorrelation for at least a month, typically much longer, indicating ample storage of water feeding all stalactites investigated. Drip discharge histograms are highly variable, showing sometimes multimodal distributions. Histogram skewness is shown to relate to the wetter-than-average 2013 hydrological year and modality is affected by seasonality. The hydrological classification scheme with respect to mean discharge and the flow variation can distinguish between groundwater flow types in limestones with primary porosity, and the technique could be used to characterize different karst flow paths when high-frequency automated drip logger data are available. We observe little difference in the coefficient of variation (COV) between flow classification types, probably reflecting the ample storage due to the dominance of primary porosity at this cave site. Moreover, we do not find any relationship between drip variability and discharge within similar flow type. Finally, a combination of multidimensional scaling (MDS) and clustering by k means is used to classify similar drip types based on time series analysis. This clustering reveals four unique drip regimes which agree with previous flow type classification for this site. It highlights a spatial homogeneity in drip types in one cave chamber, and spatial heterogeneity in the other, which is in agreement with our understanding of cave chamber morphology and lithology.

Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

2011-09-01

The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

The index gage method to develop a flow duration curve from short-term streamflow records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhenxing

2017-10-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most commonly used graphical tools in hydrology and provides a comprehensive graphical view of streamflow variability at a particular site. For a gaged site, an FDC can be easily estimated with frequency analysis. When no streamflow records are available, regional FDCs are used to synthesize FDCs. However, studies on how to develop FDCs for sites with short-term records have been very limited. Deriving representative FDC when there are short-term hydrologic records is important. For instance, 43% of the 394 streamflow gages in Illinois have records of 20 years or fewer, and these short-term gages are often distributed in headwaters and contain valuable hydrologic information. In this study, the index gage method is proposed to develop FDCs using short-term hydrologic records via an information transfer technique from a nearby hydrologically similar index gage. There are three steps: (1) select an index gage; (2) determine changes of FDC; and (3) develop representative FDCs. The approach is tested using records from 92 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages in Illinois. A jackknife experiment is conducted to assess the performance. Bootstrap resampling is used to simulate various periods of records, i.e., 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years of records. The results demonstrated that the index gage method is capable of developing a representative FDC using short-term records. Generally, the approach performance is improved when more hydrologic records are available, but the improvement appears to level off when the short-term gage has 10 years or more records.

The role of subsurface water flow paths on hillslope hydrological processes, landslides and landform development in steep mountains of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onda, Yuichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Tabuchi, Hidekazu

2004-03-01

Hydrological monitoring was conducted in high-relief watersheds in the Japan Alps to investigate the relationship between hillslope hydrological processes and landform evolution in steep granite and shale mountains. In the Koshibu watershed, underlain by Mesozoic shale, the drainage density and frequency was significantly lower than in the Yotagiri watershed underlain by granite. Drainage micro-morphology analysis showed that hillslopes in the watersheds K1 and K6 (Koshibu basin) are mostly combinations of talus and bedrock exposures. In contrast, watershed Y1 (Yotagiri basin) is composed of several zero-order streams with hollows. Infinite slope stability analysis indicates that the regolith shear strength in the K6 watershed (Koshibu basin) is lower than that of the Y1 hillslope, but groundwater levels were higher in the Y1 hillslope than in the K6 hillslope during storm events. These data suggest that, although the shear strength of the soil is stronger in the Yotagiri watershed, the slopes are unstable because of the groundwater conditions, whereas deep-seated landslides may occur episodically in the Koshibu watershed associated with extreme storms and very high antecedent soil moisture. These differences would strongly contribute to the different observed hillslope processes and drainage characteristics.

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Water and Sediment Output Evaluation Using Cellular Automata on Alpine Catchment: Soana, Italy - Test Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasculli, Antonio; Audisio, Chiara; Sciarra, Nicola

2017-12-01

In the alpine contest, the estimation of the rainfall (inflow) and the discharge (outflow) data are very important in order to, at least, analyse historical time series at catchment scale; determine the hydrological maximum and minimum estimate flood and drought frequency. Hydrological researches become a precious source of information for various human activities, in particular for land use management and planning. Many rainfall- runoff models have been proposed to reflect steady, gradually-varied flow condition inside a catchment. In these last years, the application of Reduced Complexity Models (RCM) has been representing an excellent alternative resource for evaluating the hydrological response of catchments, within a period of time up to decades. Hence, this paper is aimed at the discussion of the application of the research code CAESAR, based on cellular automaton (CA) approach, in order to evaluate the water and the sediment outputs from an alpine catchment (Soana, Italy), selected as test case. The comparison between the predicted numerical results, developed through parametric analysis, and the available measured data are discussed. Finally, the analysis of a numerical estimate of the sediment budget over ten years is presented. The necessity of a fast, but reliable numerical support when the measured data are not so easily accessible, as in Alpine catchments, is highlighted.

Climate Informed Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Nonstationary Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D.; Guo, S.; Lian, Y.

2014-12-01

Stationarity is often assumed for frequency analysis of low flows in water resources management and planning. However, many studies have shown that flow characteristics, particularly the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events,were modified by climate change and human activities and the conventional frequency analysis without considering the non-stationary characteristics may lead to costly design. The analysis presented in this paper was based on the more than 100 years of daily flow data from the Yichang gaging station 44 kilometers downstream of the Three Gorges Dam. The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis showed that the annual low flows had significant monotonic trend, whereas an abrupt change point was identified in 1936 by the Pettitt test. The climate informed low flow frequency analysis and the divided and combined method are employed to account for the impacts from related climate variables and the nonstationarities in annual low flows. Without prior knowledge of the probability density function for the gaging station, six distribution functions including the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV), Pearson Type III, Gumbel, Gamma, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions have been tested to find the best fit, in which the local likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters. Analyses show that GEV had the best fit for the observed low flows. This study has also shown that the climate informed low flow frequency analysis is able to exploit the link between climate indices and low flows, which would account for the dynamic feature for reservoir management and provide more accurate and reliable designs for infrastructure and water supply.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

Decision Support System for hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobée, Bernard; El Adlouni, Salaheddine

2014-05-01

The study of the tail behaviour of extreme event distributions is important in several applied statistical fields such as hydrology, finance, and telecommunications. For example in hydrology, it is important to estimate adequately extreme quantiles in order to build and manage safe and effective hydraulic structures (dams, for example). Two main classes of distributions are used in hydrological frequency analysis: the class D of sub-exponential (Gamma (G2), Gumbel, Halphen type A (HA), Halphen type B (HB)…) and the class C of regularly varying distributions (Fréchet, Log-Pearson, Halphen type IB …) with a heavier tail. A Decision Support System (DSS) based on the characterization of the right tail, corresponding low probability of excedence p (high return period T=1/p, in hydrology), has been developed. The DSS allows discriminating between the class C and D and in its last version, a new prior step is added in order to test Lognormality. Indeed, the right tail of the Lognormal distribution (LN) is between the tails of distributions of the classes C and D; studies indicated difficulty with the discrimination between LN and distributions of the classes C and D. Other tools are useful to discriminate between distributions of the same class D (HA, HB and G2; see other communication). Some numerical illustrations show that, the DSS allows discriminating between Lognormal, regularly varying and sub-exponential distributions; and lead to coherent conclusions. Key words: Regularly varying distributions, subexponential distributions, Decision Support System, Heavy tailed distribution, Extreme value theory

Multiscale control of flooding and riparian-forest composition in Lower Michigan, USA.

PubMed

Baker, Matthew E; Wiley, Michael J

2009-01-01

Despite general agreement that river-valley hydrology shapes riparian ecosystems, relevant processes are difficult to distinguish and often inadequately specified in riparian studies. We hypothesize that physical constraints imposed by broad-scale watershed characteristics and river valleys modify local site conditions in a predictable and probabilistic fashion. To test this hypothesis, we employ a series of structural equations that decompose occurrence of riparian ecotypes into regional temperature, catchment storm response, valley hydraulics, and local site wetness via a priori specification of factor structure and ask (1) Is there evidence for multiscale hydrologic control of riparian diversity across Lower Michigan? (2) Do representations of key constraints on flood dynamics distinguish regional patterns of riparian vegetation? (3) How important are these effects? Cross-correlation among geospatial predictors initially obscured much of the variation revealed through analysis of semipartial variance. Causal relationships implied by our model fit with observed variation in riparian conditions (chi-square P = 0.43) and accounted for between 84% and 99% of the occurrence probability of five riparian ecotypes at 94 locations. Results suggest strong variation in the effects of regional climate, and both the relative importance and spatial scale of hydrologic factors influencing riparian vegetation through explicit quantification of relative flood frequency, duration, intensity, and relative overall inundation. Although climate and hydrology are not the only determinants of riparian conditions, interactions of hydrologic sourcing and flood dynamics described by our spatial models drive a significant portion of the variation in riparian ecosystem character throughout Lower Michigan, USA.

Risk analysis for the flood control capacity of dikes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hsiao Ping; Yeh, Keh-Chia; Hsiao, Yi-Hua

2017-04-01

Climate change is the major reason for many extreme disaster events. In recent years, scientists have revealed many findings and most of them agree that the frequency of extreme weather and its corresponding hydrological impact will increase due to climate change. In such situation, the current hydrologic designs based upon historical observation, which could be changed, are necessary to review again under the scenario of climate change. It is for this reason that this study uses Kao-Ping River Basin as an example, using high resolution dynamical downscaling data (base period, near future, and end of the century) to simulate changes in hourly flow rate of typhoon events in each of the three 25-year periods. Results are further compared with the design flow rate announced by the competent authority of water resources, as well as recorded river water levels of the most severe typhoon event in history and risk analysis basic on factors, to evaluate the risk and impact of river flooding under climate change.From the simulation results, the frequency of exceeding design discharge in Kao-ping river catchment will increase in the end of century. The water level at these LI-LIN BRIDGE and SAN-TI-MEN gauges could be obviously influenced due to the extreme rainfall events, so that their flood control capacity should be assessed and improved.

Sensors, Cyberinfrastructure, and Examination of Hydrologic and Hydrochemical Response in the Little Bear River Observatory Test Bed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsburgh, J. S.; Stevens, D. K.; Tarboton, D. G.; Mesner, N. O.; Spackman Jones, A.

2008-12-01

The Little Bear River environmental observatory test bed is one of 11 test bed projects that are focused on developing techniques and technologies for environmental observatories ranging from innovative application of environmental sensors to publishing observations data in common formats that can be accessed by investigators nationwide. Specific objectives of the Little Bear test bed include the estimation of water quality constituent fluxes from surrogate data, relation of fluxes to watershed attributes and management practices, examination of high frequency hydrologic and hydrochemical responses, and development of cyberinfrastructure that supports these analyses and publication of the data. We have installed high frequency water quality and discharge monitoring instrumentation at seven locations in the Little Bear, along with two continuous weather stations. Cyberinfrastructure that has been implemented includes the sensors, a telemetry system that transmits data from the field to a central location, a central observations database, software that automates the ingestion of these data into the database so they are available in near real time, and software tools for screening and quality control of the raw data. We have implemented a CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System (HIS) Server that includes an instance of the Observations Data Model (ODM) relational database that stores the data, web services that provide programmatic data access over the Internet using WaterML, the Data Access System for Hydrology (DASH) that provides an Internet map based interface for data access, and the Time Series Analyst that provides Internet-based plotting and summary functionality. The high frequency data have illustrated the dynamic nature of hydrologic and hydrochemical response in the Little Bear as well as the importance of sampling frequency on estimation of constituent fluxes. Annual estimates of total phosphorus and total suspended solids loads vary over orders of magnitude as sample frequency decreases from half hourly to monthly, implying that high frequency data are necessary for quantifying fluxes of these constituents. Daily fluctuations in dissolved oxygen and dissolved oxygen saturation deficit have illustrated the importance of land use, pollutant loading, and flow regime on photosynthesis, respiration, and reaeration rates at each of the monitoring sites. Conductivity results have provided insights into contributions from differing hydrologic pathways that include baseflow, surface runoff, agricultural return flows, and reservoir releases, and together with the hydrochemical data have informed our conceptual model of the structure and function of the Little Bear River watershed. This presentation will cover both the development and implementation of cyberinfrastructure within the Little Bear River test bed as well as the results of our scientific analyses using the data that we have collected.

High-frequency phosphorus and nitrate measurements for improved statutory water quality monitoring and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieroza, Magdalena

2017-04-01

High-frequency nutrient (phosphorus and nitrogen) monitoring using wet-chemistry analysers and optical sensors has revolutionised the collection of biogeochemical data from streams, rivers and lakes. Matching the nutrient measurement time with timescales of hydrological responses has revealed biogeochemical patterns and nutrient hydrological responses not observed previously. Capturing a wider range of nutrient concentrations compared to traditional coarse resolution sampling enables more accurate estimation of mean concentrations and loads and thus improved water body classification. However, to date the scientific insights from the high-frequency nutrient monitoring studies have not been translated into policy and operational responses. The pertinent question is where and how often to measure nutrients to satisfy statutory monitoring requirements for the Water Framework Directive and the Nitrates Directive. Therefore this paper discusses how the reduced data uncertainty and improved process understanding obtained with the high-frequency measurements can improve statutory nutrient monitoring, using case studies from England and Sweden.

The New York City Operations Support Tool: Supporting Water Supply Operations for Millions in an Era of Changing Patterns in Hydrological Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matonse, A. H.; Porter, J. H.; Frei, A.

2015-12-01

Providing an average 1.1 billion gallons (~ 4.2 x 106 cubic meters) of drinking water per day to approximately nine million people in New York City (NYC) and four upstate counties, the NYC water supply is among the world's largest unfiltered systems. In addition to providing a reliable water supply in terms of water quantity and quality, the city has to fulfill other flow objectives to serve downstream communities. At times, such as during extreme hydrological events, water quality issues may restrict water usage for parts of the system. To support a risk-based water supply decision making process NYC has developed the Operations Support Tool (OST). OST combines a water supply systems model with reservoir water quality models, near real time data ingestion, data base management and an ensemble hydrological forecast. A number of reports have addressed the frequency and intensities of extreme hydrological events across the continental US. In the northeastern US studies have indicated an increase in the frequency of extremely large precipitation and streamflow events during the most recent decades. During this presentation we describe OST and, using case studies we demonstrate how this tool has been useful to support operational decisions. We also want to motivate a discussion about how undergoing changes in patterns of hydrological extreme events elevate the challenge faced by water supply managers and the role of the scientific community to integrate nonstationarity approaches in hydrologic forecast and modeling.

Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the dividing line.

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

2017-04-01

Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible, reinsurance schemes, and incentives for risk reduction. The methodology tested by members of the Integrated Nucleus of River Basins (NIBH) (University of Sao Paulo (USP) School of Engineering of São Carlos (EESC) - Brazil) presents an alternative to the analysis and planning of insurance funds, aiming to mitigate the impacts of hydrological droughts and stream flash floods. The presented procedure is especially important when information relevant to studies and the development and implementation of insurance funds are difficult to access and of complex evaluation. A sequence of academic applications has been made in Brazil under the South American context, where the market of hydrological insurance has a low penetration compared to developed economies and insurance markets more established as the United States and Europe, producing relevant information and demonstrating the potential of the methodology in development.

Impact of Diverse Hydrologic Pathways, 3D Failure Geometries, and Unsaturated Soil Suctions on Shallow Landsliding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, M. E.; Iverson, R. M.; Brien, D. L.; Iverson, N. R.; Lahusen, R. G.; Logan, M.

2016-12-01

Shallow landslides and ensuing debris flows can be triggered by diverse hydrologic phenomena such as groundwater inflow, prolonged moderate-intensity precipitation, or bursts of high-intensity precipitation. However, hazard assessments typically rely on simplistic hydrologic models that disregard this diversity. We used the USGS debris-flow flume to conduct controlled, field-scale slope failure experiments designed to investigate the effects of diverse hydrologic pathways, as well as the effects of 3D landslide geometries and suction stresses in unsaturated soil. Using overhead sprinklers or groundwater injectors on the flume bed, we induced failures in 6 m3 (0.65-m thick and 2-m wide) prisms of loamy sand on a 31º slope. We used 50 sensors to monitor soil deformation, variably saturated pore pressures, and moisture changes. We also determined shear strength, hydraulic conductivity, and unsaturated moisture retention characteristics from ancillary tests. The three hydrologic scenarios noted above led to different behaviors. Groundwater injection and prolonged infiltration created differing soil moisture patterns. Intense sprinkling bursts caused rapid failure without development of widespread positive pore pressures. We simulated these observed differences numerically by coupling 2D variably saturated groundwater flow modeling and 3D limit-equilibrium analysis. We also simulated the time evolution of changes in factors of safety, and quantified the mechanical effects of 3D geometry and unsaturated soil suction on stability. When much of the soil became relatively wet, effects of 3D geometry and soil suction produced slight increases ( 10-20%) in factors of safety. Suction effects were more pronounced with drier soils. Our results indicate that simplistic models cannot consistently predict the timing of slope failure, and that high frequency monitoring (with sampling periods < 60 s) is needed to measure and interpret the effects of rapid hydrologic triggers.

Ground-water response to forest harvest: implications for hillslope stability

Treesearch

A.C. Johnson; R.T. Edwards; R. Erhardt

2007-01-01

Timber harvest may contribute to increased landsliding frequency through increased soil saturation or loss of soil strength as roots decay. This study assessed the effects of forest harvest on hillslope hydrology and linked hydrologic change before and after harvest with a simple model of hillslope stability. Observations of peak water table heights in 56 groundwater...

Expanded stream gauging includes groundwater data and trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.; Barlow, Jeannie R.; Eddy-Miller, Cheryl; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Wheeler, Jerrod D.

2012-01-01

Population growth has increased water scarcity to the point that documenting current amounts of worldwide water resources is now as critical as any data collection in the Earth sciences. As a key element of this data collection, stream gauges yield continuous hydrologic information and document long-term trends, recording high-frequency hydrologic information over decadal to centennial time frames.

What can high frequency data tell us about hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a permafrost-underlain watershed that we do not already know?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, S. K.; Shatilla, N. J.; Tang, W.

2017-12-01

Permafrost and frozen ground play a key role in the delivery of water and solutes from the landscape to the stream, and in biogeochemical cycling by acting as a cold season or semi-permanent aquitard. Conceptual models of permafrost hydrology have been well defined for over 40 years, yet renewed interest in the face of global climate change and rapid degradation of frozen ground has provided an opportunity to revisit previous paradigms. At the same time, new instruments and techniques to understand coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes have emerged, providing a more nuanced view of northern systems. High-frequency sub-hourly measures of flows, water quality and biogeochemical parameters such as salinity and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), along with eddy covariance systems provide considerable data, yet using this data to reveal new process information remains challenging. In this presentation, multi-year high frequency data sets of water, solute and carbon fluxes from Granger Creek, an instrumented alpine watershed with discontinuous permafrost within the Wolf Creek Research Basin, Yukon Territory, Canada, will be shown. While several decades of hydrometric and geochemical data exist for Granger Creek, inter-annual variability is considerable and makes evaluating long-term trends difficult. Insights derived from high-frequency sub-hourly salinity, CDOM and flow over recent years reveal that hysteresis loops among variables can be used to assess changing connectivity and flow paths as both magnitude and direction of loops can be used to infer landscape-scale linkages. These patterns highlight spatial connections among landscape units not previously observed, and identify periods when hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are coupled. Evaluation of these patterns at the headwater scale provides alternate hypotheses for how permafrost landscapes will respond to a changing climate.

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were previously detected by other researches. In the whole basin, we estimated an upward trend of maximum annual discharges at Amazon River. In order to estimate better future hydrological behavior and their impacts on the society, HR could be used as a methodology to understand past extreme events occurrence in many places considering the global coverage of rainfall datasets.

Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.

Hyporheic Zone Residence Time Distributions in Regulated River Corridors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X.; Chen, X.; Shuai, P.; Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Ren, H.; Hammond, G. E.

2017-12-01

Regulated rivers exhibit stage fluctuations at multiple frequencies due to both natural processes (e.g., seasonal cycle) and anthropogenic activities (e.g., dam operation). The interaction between the dynamic river flow conditions and the heterogeneous aquifer properties results in complex hydrologic exchange pathways that are ubiquitous in free-flowing and regulated river corridors. The dynamic nature of the exchange flow is reflected in the residence time distribution (RTD) of river water within the groundwater system, which is a key metric that links river corridor biogeochemical processes with the hydrologic exchange. Understanding the dynamics of RTDs is critical to gain the mechanistic understanding of hydrologic exchange fluxes and propose new parsimonious models for river corridors, yet it is understudied primarily due to the high computational demands. In this study, we developed parallel particle tracking algorithms to reveal how river flow variations affect the RTD of river water in the alluvial aquifer. Particle tracking was conducted using the velocity outputs generated by three-dimensional groundwater flow simulations of PFLOTRAN in a 1600 x 800 x 20m model domain within the DOE Hanford Site. Long-term monitoring data of inland well water levels and river stage were used for eight years of flow simulation. Nearly a half million particles were continually released along the river boundary to calculate the RTDs. Spectral analysis of the river stage data revealed high-frequency (sub-daily to weekly) river stage fluctuations caused by dam operations. The higher frequencies of stage variation were progressively filtered to generate multiple sets of flow boundary conditions. A series of flow simulations were performed by using the filtered flow boundary conditions and various degrees of subsurface heterogeneity to study the relative contribution of flow dynamics and physical heterogeneity on river water RTD. Our results revealed multimodal RTDs of river water as a result of the highly variable exchange pathways driven by interactions between dynamic flow and aquifer heterogeneity. A relationship between the RTD and frequency of flow variation was built for each heterogeneity structure, which can be used to assess the potential ecological consequences of dam operations in regulated rivers.

Hydrological Dynamics, Fire History and Carbon Accumulation in the Last Millennium in Western Siberia Reconstructed from a High Resolution Ombrotrophic Peat Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamentowicz, M.; Slowinski, M. M.; Marcisz, K.; Kolaczek, P.; Neumann, M.; Kaliszan, K.; Lapshina, E.; Gilbert, D.; Buttler, A.; Fialkiewicz-Koziel, B.; Jassey, V.; Laggoun-Defarge, F.

2014-12-01

Northern peatlands are important sinks of carbon. However, ongoing climate change and human impact trigger emission of the stored carbon into the atmosphere. Because of the progressive disturbances there is an urgent need to recognize these processes in space and time. We investigated a profile from a Mukhrino bog located close to the Mukhrino Field Station, about 20 km from Khanty-Mansiysk (60°54' N, 68°42' E). One meter peat core was subsampled in one-centimeter intervals. Pollen, testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, bulk density and carbon content were analyzed in high-resolution to reconstruct hydrology, droughts and carbon accumulation rates during the last 1200 years. We hypothesize that continental bogs of Siberia have been existing in under summer drought stress during the last millennium and hydrological change (dry shift) is also reflected in local fires. Palaeoecological work was accompanied by surface sampling to collect testate amoebae training set for transfer function development. These microorganisms have been scarcely studied in this part of the world. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that 23.7% of variance is explained by the model. Furthermore, water table appeared to be the most significant variable for sampled communities. Testate amoebae calibration data set performed the reliably using weighted averaging model (RMSEPboot=7.9, R2boot=0.74). According to our quantitative reconstruction, higher charcoal influx was inferred between AD 1975 and 1990 what suggests higher fire frequency. However, water table was the lowest between AD 1150 and AD 1965. The data show lack of correlation between peatland wetness and regional fires. Consequently, it suggests that peatland hydrological dynamics might be independent from fires frequency, as fires were caused by recent human activities in concomitance with the positive Arctic Oscillation Index during the last decade.

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Generalized Normal Distribution for Use in Hydrological Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Samiran

2018-04-01

The use of three-parameter generalized normal (GNO) as a hydrological frequency distribution is well recognized, but its application is limited due to unavailability of popular goodness-of-fit (GOF) test statistics. This study develops popular empirical distribution function (EDF)-based test statistics to investigate the goodness-of-fit of the GNO distribution. The focus is on the case most relevant to the hydrologist, namely, that in which the parameter values are unidentified and estimated from a sample using the method of L-moments. The widely used EDF tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramer von Mises, and Anderson-Darling (AD) are considered in this study. A modified version of AD, namely, the Modified Anderson-Darling (MAD) test, is also considered and its performance is assessed against other EDF tests using a power study that incorporates six specific Wakeby distributions (WA-1, WA-2, WA-3, WA-4, WA-5, and WA-6) as the alternative distributions. The critical values of the proposed test statistics are approximated using Monte Carlo techniques and are summarized in chart and regression equation form to show the dependence of shape parameter and sample size. The performance results obtained from the power study suggest that the AD and a variant of the MAD (MAD-L) are the most powerful tests. Finally, the study performs case studies involving annual maximum flow data of selected gauged sites from Irish and US catchments to show the application of the derived critical values and recommends further assessments to be carried out on flow data sets of rivers with various hydrological regimes.

ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

2017-04-01

The recent accumulation of extreme hydrological events in Bavaria and Québec has stimulated scientific and also societal interest. In addition to the challenges of an improved prediction of such situations and the implications for the associated risk management, there is, as yet, no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for 'virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change. [The authors acknowledge funding for the project from the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection].

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Sando, Roy; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011.The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.The at-site frequency estimates were adjusted by weighting with frequency estimates from RREs using the WIE program for 438 selected gaging stations in Montana. These 438 selected gaging stations (1) had periods of record less than or equal to 40 years, (2) represented unregulated or minor regulation conditions, and (3) had drainage areas less than about 2,750 square miles.The weighted-average frequency estimates obtained by weighting with RREs generally are considered to provide improved frequency estimates. In some cases, there are substantial differences among the at-site frequency estimates, the regression-equation frequency estimates, and the weighted-average frequency estimates. In these cases, thoughtful consideration should be applied when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate. Some factors that might be considered when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate include (1) whether the specific gaging station has peak-flow characteristics that distinguish it from most other gaging stations used in developing the RREs for the hydrologic region; and (2) the length of the peak-flow record and the general climatic characteristics during the period when the peak-flow data were collected. For critical structure-design applications, a conservative approach would be to select the higher of the at-site frequency estimate and the weighted-average frequency estimate.The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure generally was applied in cases where three or more gaging stations were located on the same large river and some of the gaging stations could not be adjusted using the weighted-average method because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure was applied to 66 selected gaging stations on 19 large rivers.The general approach for using mixed-station record extension procedures to adjust at-site frequencies involved (1) determining appropriate base periods for the gaging stations on the large rivers, (2) synthesizing peak-flow data for the gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods by using the mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure, and (3) conducting frequency analysis on the combined recorded and synthesized peak-flow data for each gaging station. Frequency estimates for the combined recorded and synthesized datasets for 66 gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods are presented. The uncertainties in the mixed-station record extension results are difficult to directly quantify; thus, it is important to understand the intended use of the estimated frequencies based on analysis of the combined recorded and synthesized datasets. The estimated frequencies are considered general estimates of frequency relations among gaging stations on the same stream channel that might be expected if the gaging stations had been gaged during the same long-term base period. However, because the mixed-station record extension procedures involve secondary statistical analysis with accompanying errors, the uncertainty of the frequency estimates is larger than would be obtained by collecting systematic records for the same number of years in the base period.

Real time high frequency monitoring of water quality in river streams using a UV-visible spectrometer: interest, limits and consequences for monitoring strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faucheux, Mikaël; Fovet, Ophélie; Gruau, Gérard; Jaffrézic, Anne; Petitjean, Patrice; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Ruiz, Laurent

2013-04-01

Stream water chemistry is highly variable in space and time, therefore high frequency water quality measurement methods are likely to lead to conceptual advances in the hydrological sciences. Sub-daily data on water quality improve the characterization of pollutant sources and pathways during flood events as well as during long-term periods [1]. However, real time, high frequency monitoring devices needs to be properly calibrated and validated in real streams. This study analyses data from in situ monitoring of a stream water quality. During two hydrological years (2010-11, 2011-12), a submersible UV-visible spectrometer (Scan Spectrolyser) was used for surface water quality measurement at the outlet of a headwater catchment located at Kervidy-Naizin, Western France (AgrHys long-term hydrological observatory, http://www.inra.fr/ore_agrhys/). The spectrometer is reagentless and equipped with an auto-cleaning system. It allows real time, in situ and high frequency (20 min) measurements and uses a multiwavelengt spectral (200-750 nm) for simultaneous measurement of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total suspended solids (TSS). A global calibration based on a PLS (Partial Least Squares) regression is provided by the manufacturer as default configuration of the UV-visible spectrometer. We carried out a local calibration of the spectrometer based on nitrates and DOC concentrations analysed in the laboratory from daily manual sampling and sub-daily automatic sampling of flood events. TSS results are compared with 15 min turbidity records from a continuous turdidimeter (Ponsel). The results show a good correlation between laboratory data and spectrometer data both during basis flows periods and flood events. However, the local calibration gives better results than the global one. Nutrient fluxes estimates based on high and different low frequency time series (daily to monthly) are compared to discuss the implication for environmental monitoring strategies. Such monitoring methods can therefore be interesting for designing monitoring strategy of environmental observatory and provide dense time series likely to highlight patterns or trends using appropriate approaches such as spectral analysis [2]. 1. Wade, A.J. et al., HESS Discuss., 2012. 9(5), p.6458- 6506. 2. Aubert, A. et al., submitted to EGU 2013-4745 vol. 15.

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

Changing patterns of daily precipitation totals at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, USA

Treesearch

T. P. Burt; C. Ford Miniat; S. H. Laseter; W. T. Swank

2017-01-01

A pattern of increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall over land has been documented for several temperate regions and is associated with climate change. This study examines the changing patterns of daily precipitation at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, USA, since 1937 for four rain gauges across a range of elevations. We analyse...

Ecological risk assessment based on IHA-RVA in the lower Xiaolangdi reservoir under changed hydrological situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Tao; Ma, Pan-pan; Kan, Yan-bin; Huang, Qiang

2017-12-01

Ecological risk assessment of river is an important content for protection and improvement of ecological environment. In this paper, taking Xiaolangdi reservoir for example, ecological risk assessments are studied based on the 1956-1997 and 2002-2008 dairy runoff data as the pre and post of construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir. Considering pre and post hydrological regime of construction of Xiaolangdi, ecological risk assessment index systems of downstream are established based on Index of Hydrologic Alteration-Range of Variability Approach method (IHA-RVA), which considering characters of flow, time, frequency, delay and change rate. Then ecological risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation assessment model downstream is established based on risk index and RVA method. The results show that after the construction of Xiaolangdi reservoir, ecological risk occurred in the downstream of Yellow River for changed hydrological indexes, such as monthly average flow, frequency and duration of extreme annual flow and so on, which probably destroy the whole ecosystems of the river. For example, ecological risk downstream of Xiaolangdi reservoir upgrade to level two in 2008. Research results make reference values and scientific basis both in ecological risk assessment and management of reservoir after construction.

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark

Precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation/overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpackmore » Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 72% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.« less

Next-Generation Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S.

Precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation/overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpackmore » Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 72% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.« less

Hydrologic Drought in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timilsena, J.; Piechota, T.; Hidalgo, H.; Tootle, G.

2004-12-01

This paper focuses on drought scenarios of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) for the last five hundred years and evaluates the magnitude, severity and frequency of the current five-year drought. Hydrologic drought characteristics have been developed using the historical streamflow data and tree ring chronologies in the UCRB. Historical data include the Colorado River at Cisco and Lees Ferry, Green River, Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI), and the Z index. Three ring chronologies were used from 17 spatially representative sites in the UCRB from NOAA's International Tree Ring Data. A PCA based regression model procedures was used to reconstruct drought indices and streamflow in the UCRB. Hydrologic drought is characterized by its duration (duration in year in which cumulative deficit is continuously below thresholds), deficit magnitude (the cumulative deficit below the thresholds for consecutive years), severity (magnitude divided by the duration) and frequency. Results indicate that the current drought ranks anywhere from the 5th to 20th worst drought during the period 1493-2004, depending on the drought indicator and magnitude. From a short term perspective (using annual data), the current drought is more severe than if longer term average (i.e., 5 or 10 year averages) are used to define the drought.

Multi-metric calibration of hydrological model to capture overall flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhang, Shifeng; Zhai, Xiaoyan; She, Dunxian

2016-08-01

Flow regimes (e.g., magnitude, frequency, variation, duration, timing and rating of change) play a critical role in water supply and flood control, environmental processes, as well as biodiversity and life history patterns in the aquatic ecosystem. The traditional flow magnitude-oriented calibration of hydrological model was usually inadequate to well capture all the characteristics of observed flow regimes. In this study, we simulated multiple flow regime metrics simultaneously by coupling a distributed hydrological model with an equally weighted multi-objective optimization algorithm. Two headwater watersheds in the arid Hexi Corridor were selected for the case study. Sixteen metrics were selected as optimization objectives, which could represent the major characteristics of flow regimes. Model performance was compared with that of the single objective calibration. Results showed that most metrics were better simulated by the multi-objective approach than those of the single objective calibration, especially the low and high flow magnitudes, frequency and variation, duration, maximum flow timing and rating. However, the model performance of middle flow magnitude was not significantly improved because this metric was usually well captured by single objective calibration. The timing of minimum flow was poorly predicted by both the multi-metric and single calibrations due to the uncertainties in model structure and input data. The sensitive parameter values of the hydrological model changed remarkably and the simulated hydrological processes by the multi-metric calibration became more reliable, because more flow characteristics were considered. The study is expected to provide more detailed flow information by hydrological simulation for the integrated water resources management, and to improve the simulation performances of overall flow regimes.

Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping

2018-01-01

Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

Calculation of average landslide frequency using climatic records

Treesearch

L. M. Reid

1998-01-01

Abstract - Aerial photographs are used to develop a relationship between the number of debris slides generated during a hydrologic event and the size of the event, and the long-term average debris-slide frequency is calculated from climate records using the relation.

The Use of Radar-Based Products for Deriving Extreme Rainfall Frequencies Using Regional Frequency Analysis with Application in South Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldardiry, H. A.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

Radar-based technologies have made spatially and temporally distributed quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) available in an operational environmental compared to the raingauges. The floods identified through flash flood monitoring and prediction systems are subject to at least three sources of uncertainties: (a) those related to rainfall estimation errors, (b) those due to streamflow prediction errors due to model structural issues, and (c) those due to errors in defining a flood event. The current study focuses on the first source of uncertainty and its effect on deriving important climatological characteristics of extreme rainfall statistics. Examples of such characteristics are rainfall amounts with certain Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) or Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), which are highly valuable for hydrologic and civil engineering design purposes. Gauge-based precipitation frequencies estimates (PFE) have been maturely developed and widely used over the last several decades. More recently, there has been a growing interest by the research community to explore the use of radar-based rainfall products for developing PFE and understand the associated uncertainties. This study will use radar-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) for 11 years to derive PFE's corresponding to various return periods over a spatial domain that covers the state of Louisiana in southern USA. The PFE estimation approach used in this study is based on fitting generalized extreme value distribution to hydrologic extreme rainfall data based on annual maximum series (AMS). Some of the estimation problems that may arise from fitting GEV distributions at each radar pixel is the large variance and seriously biased quantile estimators. Hence, a regional frequency analysis approach (RFA) is applied. The RFA involves the use of data from different pixels surrounding each pixel within a defined homogenous region. In this study, region of influence approach along with the index flood technique are used in the RFA. A bootstrap technique procedure is carried out to account for the uncertainty in the distribution parameters to construct 90% confidence intervals (i.e., 5% and 95% confidence limits) on AMS-based precipitation frequency curves.

Applicability of Monte Carlo cross validation technique for model development and validation using generalised least squares regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, Khaled; Rahman, Ataur; A Zaman, Mohammad; Shrestha, Surendra

2013-03-01

SummaryIn regional hydrologic regression analysis, model selection and validation are regarded as important steps. Here, the model selection is usually based on some measurements of goodness-of-fit between the model prediction and observed data. In Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA), leave-one-out (LOO) validation or a fixed percentage leave out validation (e.g., 10%) is commonly adopted to assess the predictive ability of regression-based prediction equations. This paper develops a Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) technique (which has widely been adopted in Chemometrics and Econometrics) in RFFA using Generalised Least Squares Regression (GLSR) and compares it with the most commonly adopted LOO validation approach. The study uses simulated and regional flood data from the state of New South Wales in Australia. It is found that when developing hydrologic regression models, application of the MCCV is likely to result in a more parsimonious model than the LOO. It has also been found that the MCCV can provide a more realistic estimate of a model's predictive ability when compared with the LOO.

CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD-based forecasting, and results showed that removing high-frequency component is an effective measure to improve forecasting precision and is suggested for use with the CEREF model for better performance. Finally, the study concluded that the CEREF model can be used to forecast non-stationary annual streamflow change as a co-evolution of hydrologic and social systems with better accuracy. Also, the modification about removing high-frequency can further improve the performance of the CEREF model. It should be noted that the CEREF model is beneficial for data-driven hydrologic forecasting in complex socio-hydrologic systems, and as a simple data-driven socio-hydrologic forecasting model, deserves more attention.

Use and availability of continuous streamflow records in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuetz, J.R.

1986-01-01

This report documents a survey that identifies local, State, and Federal uses of data from 139 continuous-record, surface-water stations, presently (1984) operated by the Wyoming District of the U. S. Geological Survey; identifies sources of funding pertaining to collections of streamflow data; and presents frequency of data availability. Uses of data from the 139 stations are categorized into seven classes: Regional Hydrology, Hydrology Systems, Legal Obligations, Planning and Design, Project Operation, Hydrologic Forecasts, and Water Quality Monitoring. Sufficient use of surface water data collected from the stations justifies the continued operation of all stations. (USGS)

Hydrological disposition of flash flood and debris flows events in an Alpine watershed in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenner, David; Kaitna, Roland; Mostbauer, Karin; Hrachowitz, Markus

2017-04-01

Debris flows and flash floods including intensive bedload transport represent severe hazards in the Alpine environment of Austria. For neither of these processes, explicit rainfall thresholds - even for specific regions - are available. This may be due to insufficient data on the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation, but probably also due to variations of the geomorphic and hydrological disposition of a watershed to produce such processes in the course of a rainfall event. In this contribution we investigate the importance of the hydrological system state for triggering debris flows and flash floods in the Ill/Suggadin watershed (500 km2), Austria, by analyzing the effects of dynamics in system state variables such as soil moisture, snow pack, or ground water level. The analysis is based on a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, spatially discretizing the watershed according to the available precipitation observations, elevation, topographic considerations and land cover. Input data are available from six weather stations on a daily basis ranging back to 1947. A Thiessen polygon decomposition results in six individual precipitation zones with a maximum area of about 130 km2. Elevation specific behavior of the quantities temperature and precipitation is covered through an elevation-resolved computation every 200 m. Spatial heterogeneity is considered by distinct hydrological response units for bare rock, forest, grassland, and riparian zone. To reduce numerical smearing on the hydrological results, the Implicit Euler scheme was used to discretize the balance equations. For model calibration we utilized runoff hydrographs, snow cover data as well as prior parameter and process constraints. The obtained hydrological output variables are linked to documented observed flash flood and debris flow events by means of a multivariate logistic regression. We present a summary about the daily hydrological disposition of experiencing a flash flood or debris flow event in each precipitation zone of the Ill/Suggadin region over almost 65 years. Furthermore, we will provide an interpretation of the occurred hydrological trigger patterns and show a frequency ranking. The outcomes of this study shall lead to an improved forecasting and differentiation of trigger conditions leading to debris flows and flash floods.

The relation between periods’ identification and noises in hydrologic series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Wang, Dong; Wu, Ji-Chun; Zhu, Qing-Ping; Wang, Ling

2009-04-01

SummaryIdentification of dominant periods is a typical and important issue in hydrologic series data analysis, since it is the basis of building effective stochastic models, understanding complex hydrologic processes, etc. However it is still a difficult task due to the influence of many interrelated factors, such as noises in hydrologic series data. In this paper, firstly the great influence of noises on periods' identification has been analyzed. Then, based on two conventional methods of hydrologic series analysis: wavelet analysis (WA) and maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA), a new method of periods' identification of hydrologic series data, main series spectral analysis (MSSA), has been put forward, whose main idea is to identify periods of the main series on the basis of reducing hydrologic noises. Various methods (include fast Fourier transform (FFT), MESA and MSSA) have been applied to both synthetic series and observed hydrologic series. Results show that conventional methods (FFT and MESA) are not as good as expected due to the great influence of noises. However, this influence is not so strong while using the new method MSSA. In addition, by using the new de-noising method proposed in this paper, which is suitable for both normal noises and skew noises, the results are more reasonable, since noises separated from hydrologic series data generally follow skew probability distributions. In conclusion, based on comprehensive analyses, it can be stated that the proposed method MSSA could improve periods' identification by effectively reducing the influence of hydrologic noises.

Hyphenated hydrology: Interdisciplinary evolution of water resource science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCurley, Kathryn L.; Jawitz, James W.

2017-04-01

Hydrology has advanced considerably as a scientific discipline since its recognized inception in the mid-twentieth century. Modern water resource related questions have forced adaptation from exclusively physical or engineering science viewpoints toward a deliberate interdisciplinary context. Over the past few decades, many of the eventual manifestations of this evolution were foreseen by prominent expert hydrologists. However, their narrative descriptions have lacked substantial quantification. This study addressed that gap by measuring the prevalence of and analyzing the relationships between the terms most frequently used by hydrologists to define and describe their research. We analyzed 16,591 journal article titles from 1965-2015 in Water Resources Research, through which the scientific dialogue and its time-sensitive progression emerged. Our word frequency and term cooccurrence network results revealed the dynamic timing of the lateral movement of hydrology across multiple disciplines as well as the deepening of scientific discourse with respect to traditional hydrologic questions. The conversation among water resource scientists surrounding the hydrologic subdisciplines of catchment-hydrology, hydro-meteorology, socio-hydrology, hydro-climatology, and eco-hydrology gained statistically significant momentum in the analyzed time period, while that of hydro-geology and contaminant-hydrology experienced periods of increase followed by significant decline. This study concludes that formerly exotic disciplines can potentially modify hydrology, prompting new insights and inspiring unconventional perspectives on old questions that may have otherwise become obsolete.

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

Meteorological considerations and satellite retrievals in supporting to the assessment of local hydrologic homogeneity over Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriele, Salvatore; Laviola, Sante; Chiaravalloti, Francesco

2014-05-01

Regional frequency analysis is a useful tool for estimating precipitation quantiles more accurately than at-site frequency analysis, especially in the case of regions with a brief history of short-time rainfall records. Since the rainfalls with short duration are mainly due to convective phenomena, usually affecting areas of few square kilometers, the description of these events with traditional tools such as in-situ rain gauges is often incomplete and not exhaustive. Thus, the application of these datasets to the regional analysis typically provides unrealistic description of the event and large miscalculations of the return time, usually higher than observation. Therefore, in order to evaluate the possible regional homogeneity and improve the performance of hydrologic models the inference analysis of the regional climatic regimes is revealed a useful tool. Starting from the intense rainfall of 19 November 2013 over Southern Italy, we demonstrate that the synoptic meteorological situation well-matched with results of Gabriele & Chiaravalloti (2013a, 2013b) where the regional homogeneity has been calculated on the basis of different climate indexes such as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and the Q-vector Divergence (QD). In support to that analysis two different methodologies based on satellite microwave information have been applied: the Water vapor Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) (Laviola and Levizzani, 2011) algorithm provides to define the precipitation patterns while the MicroWave Cloud Classification (MWCC) (Miglietta et al., 2013) characterizes the cloud type in terms of stratiform and convective. Although, this study is still in progress the current results clearly demonstrate that the Mediterranean storms move on a sort of 'preferential trajectories' especially during the months September-November where the most intense convections have been found. Laviola, S., and V. Levizzani, 2011: The 183-WSL fast rainrate retrieval algorithm. Part I: Retrieval design. Atmos. Res., 99, 443-461. Miglietta, M. M., S. Laviola, A, Malvaldi, D. Conte, V. Levizzani, and C. Price, 2013: Analysis of tropical-like cyclone over the Mediterranean Sea through a combined modeling and satellite approach. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2400-2405, doi:10.1002/grl.50432. Gabriele,S., and F. Chiaravalloti, 2013a: Searching regional rainfall homogeneity using atmospheric fields, Advances in Water Resources, 53, 163-174 Gabriele,S., and F. Chiaravalloti, 2013b: Using meteorological information for the regional frequency analysis: an application to Sicily, Water Resour. Manage. 27, 1721-1735

Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and still 8% for series of 25 years lengths. Methods for bias correction are demonstrated. The definition of "bias" depends on a number of factors, which needs further debate in the hydrological and water engineering community. References: Willems P. (2013), 'Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe', Climatic Change, 120(4), 931-944 Willems, P. (2013). 'Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations', Journal of Hydrology, 490, 126-133 Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263

A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

2006-12-01

The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis across different observation types.

An Open Source approach to automated hydrological analysis of ungauged drainage basins in Serbia using R and SAGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zlatanovic, Nikola; Milovanovic, Irina; Cotric, Jelena

2014-05-01

Drainage basins are for the most part ungauged or poorly gauged not only in Serbia but in most parts of the world, usually due to insufficient funds, but also the decommission of river gauges in upland catchments to focus on downstream areas which are more populated. Very often, design discharges are needed for these streams or rivers where no streamflow data is available, for various applications. Examples include river training works for flood protection measures or erosion control, design of culverts, water supply facilities, small hydropower plants etc. The estimation of discharges in ungauged basins is most often performed using rainfall-runoff models, whose parameters heavily rely on geomorphometric attributes of the basin (e.g. catchment area, elevation, slopes of channels and hillslopes etc.). The calculation of these, as well as other paramaters, is most often done in GIS (Geographic Information System) software environments. This study deals with the application of freely available and open source software and datasets for automating rainfall-runoff analysis of ungauged basins using methodologies currently in use hydrological practice. The R programming language was used for scripting and automating the hydrological calculations, coupled with SAGA GIS (System for Automated Geoscientivic Analysis) for geocomputing functions and terrain analysis. Datasets used in the analyses include the freely available SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) terrain data, CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land Cover data, as well as soil maps and rainfall data. The choice of free and open source software and datasets makes the project ideal for academic and research purposes and cross-platform projects. The geomorphometric module was tested on more than 100 catchments throughout Serbia and compared to manually calculated values (using topographic maps). The discharge estimation module was tested on 21 catchments where data were available and compared to results obtained by frequency analysis of annual maximum discharge. The geomorphometric module of the calculation system showed excellent results, saving a great deal of time that would otherwise have been spent on manual processing of geospatial data. This type of automated analysis presented in this study will enable a much quicker hydrologic analysis on multiple watersheds, providing the platform for further research into spatial variability of runoff.

Development of hydrologic landscape regions for classifying hydrologic permanace and hydrological-ecological interactions

EPA Science Inventory

In a 2001 paper, Winter proposed the concept of the hydrologic landscape unit as a fundamental unit composed of an upland and lowland separated by a steeper slope. Winter suggested that this concept could be useful for hydrologic research, data analysis, and comparing hydrologic...

Linking Hydrologic Alteration to Biological Impairment in Urbanizing Streams of the Puget Lowland, Washington, USA1

PubMed Central

DeGasperi, Curtis L; Berge, Hans B; Whiting, Kelly R; Burkey, Jeff J; Cassin, Jan L; Fuerstenberg, Robert R

2009-01-01

We used a retrospective approach to identify hydrologic metrics with the greatest potential for ecological relevance for use as resource management tools (i.e., hydrologic indicators) in rapidly urbanizing basins of the Puget Lowland. We proposed four criteria for identifying useful hydrologic indicators: (1) sensitive to urbanization consistent with expected hydrologic response, (2) demonstrate statistically significant trends in urbanizing basins (and not in undeveloped basins), (3) be correlated with measures of biological response to urbanization, and (4) be relatively insensitive to potentially confounding variables like basin area. Data utilized in the analysis included gauged flow and benthic macroinvertebrate data collected at 16 locations in 11 King County stream basins. Fifteen hydrologic metrics were calculated from daily average flow data and the Pacific Northwest Benthic Index of Biological Integrity (B-IBI) was used to represent the gradient of response of stream macroinvertebrates to urbanization. Urbanization was represented by percent Total Impervious Area (%TIA) and percent urban land cover (%Urban). We found eight hydrologic metrics that were significantly correlated with B-IBI scores (Low Pulse Count and Duration; High Pulse Count, Duration, and Range; Flow Reversals, TQmean, and R-B Index). Although there appeared to be a great deal of redundancy among these metrics with respect to their response to urbanization, only two of the metrics tested – High Pulse Count and High Pulse Range – best met all four criteria we established for selecting hydrologic indicators. The increase in these high pulse metrics with respect to urbanization is the result of an increase in winter high pulses and the occurrence of high pulse events during summer (increasing the frequency and range of high pulses), when practically none would have occurred prior to development. We performed an initial evaluation of the usefulness of our hydrologic indicators by calculating and comparing hydrologic metrics derived from continuous hydrologic simulations of selected basin management alternatives for Miller Creek, one of the most highly urbanized basins used in our study. We found that the preferred basin management alternative appeared to be effective in restoring some flow metrics close to simulated fully forested conditions (e.g., TQmean), but less effective in restoring other metrics such as High Pulse Count and Range. If future research continues to support our hypothesis that the flow regime, particularly High Pulse Count and Range, is an important control of biotic integrity in Puget Lowland streams, it would have significant implications for stormwater management. PMID:22457566

State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A. H.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-09-01

This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km2), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty.

Proceedings of a Workshop on Calibration and Application of Hydrologic Models Held in Gulf Shores, Alabama on October 18-20, 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-01

of a frequency analysis, some form of hydraulic model should be used to verify the conveyance capacity of the floodway. Negative skewness of the...minimum of 40 years of record was used to compute the 100-year to 2-year ratios which were subsequently used to develop the isopluvial maps. A partial ...applying the 100-year TP-40 precipitation adjusted to reproduce the expected probability and partial duration aajustments to the HEC-1 model. unce the

Temporal Variation and Scaling of Hydrological Variables in a Typical Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C.; Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Temporal variations of the main hydrological variables over 16 years were systematically investigated based on the results from an integrated hydrological modeling at the Sagehen Creek Watershed in northern Sierra Nevada. Temporal scaling of these variables and damping effects of the hydrological system as well as its subsystems, i.e., the land surface, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, were analyzed with spectral analyses. It was found that the hydrological system may act as a cascade of hierarchical fractal filters which sequentially transfer a non-fractal or less correlated fractal hydrological signal to a more correlated fractal signal. Temporal scaling of infiltration (I), actual evapotraspiration (ET), recharge (R), baseflow (BF), streamflow (SF) exist and the temporal autocorrelation of these variables increase as water moves through the system. The degree of the damping effect of the subsystems is different and is strongest in the unsaturated zone compared with that of the land surface and saturated zone. The temporal scaling of the groundwater levels (h) also exists and is strongly affected by the river: the temporal autocorrelation of h near the river is similar to that of the river stage fluctuations and increases away from the river. There is a break in the temporal scaling of h near the river at low frequencies due to the effect of the river. Temporal variations of the soil moisture (θ) is more complicated: the value of the scaling exponent (β) for θ increases with depth as water moves downwards and its high-frequency fluctuations are damped by the unsaturated zone. The temporal fluctuations of precipitation (P) and I are fractional Gauss noise (fGn), those of ET, R, BF, and SF are fractional Brownian motion (fBm), and those of h away from the river are 2nd-order fBm based on the values of β obtained in this study. Keywords: Temporal variations, Scaling, Damping effect, Hydrological system.

Defining the ecological hydrology of Taiwan Rivers using multivariate statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Herricks, Edwin E.

2009-09-01

SummaryThe identification and verification of ecohydrologic flow indicators has found new support as the importance of ecological flow regimes is recognized in modern water resources management, particularly in river restoration and reservoir management. An ecohydrologic indicator system reflecting the unique characteristics of Taiwan's water resources and hydrology has been developed, the Taiwan ecohydrological indicator system (TEIS). A major challenge for the water resources community is using the TEIS to provide environmental flow rules that improve existing water resources management. This paper examines data from the extensive network of flow monitoring stations in Taiwan using TEIS statistics to define and refine environmental flow options in Taiwan. Multivariate statistical methods were used to examine TEIS statistics for 102 stations representing the geographic and land use diversity of Taiwan. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed high multicollinearity between the TEIS statistics. Watersheds were separated into upper and lower-watershed locations. An analysis of variance indicated significant differences between upstream, more natural, and downstream, more developed, locations in the same basin with hydrologic indicator redundancy in flow change and magnitude statistics. Issues of multicollinearity were examined using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the first three components related to general flow and high/low flow statistics, frequency and time statistics, and quantity statistics. These principle components would explain about 85% of the total variation. A major conclusion is that managers must be aware of differences among basins, as well as differences within basins that will require careful selection of management procedures to achieve needed flow regimes.

Drought characteristics and related risks in large and mesoscale tropical catchments in Latin-America and South East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauditt, Alexandra; Ribbe, Lars; Birkel, Christian; Célleri, Rolando

2016-04-01

Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in water abundant tropical countries and are expected to become more frequent in the future. Unusual water shortage in the past months and years has severely affected societies living in the Paraiba do Sul river basin (Brazil), the Mekong, as well as in a number of basins in Central America and Vietnam among many others. Preparedness, however, is absent and site appropriate water management measures and strategies are not available. While drought related research and water management in recent years has been widely addressed in water scarce subtropical regions, the US and Europe, not much attention has been paid to drought risk in tropical catchments. Available daily or monthly precipitation and runoff time series for catchments in Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, the Mekong region and Vietnam were analysed to compare historical meteorological and hydrological drought frequency (SPI/SRI). The role of tropical catchment characteristics, storage and climate variability in seasonal drought evolvement was investigated by applying the conceptual semi-distributed HBV light model to two undisturbed catchments in Central Vietnam and 18 catchments of a size of 70-5000 km² in Costa Rica. For the Mekong and the Paraíba de Sul, the hydrological module of the WEAP model was applied to undisturbed subcatchments with the same objective. To understand and separate the anthropogenic impact on drought evolvement, the abstractions (irrigation, reservoirs, water supply) and hydrological alterations were observed and quantified by applying water allocation and balance model WEAP. We conclude that such a combined model-data analysis that equally accounts for landscape related and anthropogenic impacts on the local hydrological cycle is a useful approach for drought management in tropical countries.

The role of hydrological initial conditions on Atmospheric River floods in the Russian River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Q.; Mehran, A.; Ralph, M.; Cannon, F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

A body of work over the last decade or so has demonstrated that most major floods along the U.S. West Coast are attributable to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Antecedent hydrological conditions play an important part in the natural links between precipitation and floods, and this is especially the case in the Pacific Coastal region where precipitation is strongly winter-dominant, and many potentially flood-inducing events occur relatively early in the wet season. The Russian River Basin has these characteristics, the result of which is mostly dry soils at the onset of the fall precipitation season. There is therefore a tradeoff in terms of flood potential between the strength of AR events, and the time history of previous precipitation that has begun to wet soils and raise local water tables. In order to examine flood responses associated with varying precursor hydrological conditions, we first constructed a data set of AR events that were coincident with Peaks Over Threshold (POT) extreme discharge events at selected USGS stream gauges throughout the Russian River basin. We investigated the role of antecedent soil moisture and water table conditions on historical AR flooding, initially using an exploratory data analysis approach. We then implemented the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the entire basin and conducted modeling experiments for each of the POT events under climatological and extreme antecedent conditions. We reconstructed climatological soil moisture by assimilating in situ observations into long-term soil moisture simulations from the UCLA Western U.S. Drought Monitoring System. We explore an envelope of frequency distributions of floods given a range of AR-related extreme precipitation and various initial hydrologic conditions, which eventually should have implications for flood management decision-making.

Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

2013-12-01

In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

Simulating effects of microtopography on wetland specific yield and hydroperiod

USGS Publications Warehouse

Summer, David M.; Wang, Xixi

2011-01-01

Specific yield and hydroperiod have proven to be useful parameters in hydrologic analysis of wetlands. Specific yield is a critical parameter to quantitatively relate hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall, evapotranspiration, and runoff) and water level changes. Hydroperiod measures the temporal variability and frequency of land-surface inundation. Conventionally, hydrologic analyses used these concepts without considering the effects of land surface microtopography and assumed a smoothly-varying land surface. However, these microtopographic effects could result in small-scale variations in land surface inundation and water depth above or below the land surface, which in turn affect ecologic and hydrologic processes of wetlands. The objective of this chapter is to develop a physically-based approach for estimating specific yield and hydroperiod that enables the consideration of microtopographic features of wetlands, and to illustrate the approach at sites in the Florida Everglades. The results indicate that the physically-based approach can better capture the variations of specific yield with water level, in particular when the water level falls between the minimum and maximum land surface elevations. The suggested approach for hydroperiod computation predicted that the wetlands might be completely dry or completely wet much less frequently than suggested by the conventional approach neglecting microtopography. One reasonable generalization may be that the hydroperiod approaches presented in this chapter can be a more accurate prediction tool for water resources management to meet the specific hydroperiod threshold as required by a species of plant or animal of interest.

The role of stochastic storms on hillslope runoff generation and connectivity in a dryland basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, K.; Singer, M. B.; Mudd, S. M.

2016-12-01

Despite low annual rainfall, dryland basins can generate significant surface runoff during certain rainstorms, which can cause flash flooding and high rates of erosion. However, it remains challenging to anticipate the nature and frequency of runoff generation in hydrological systems which are driven by spatially and temporally stochastic rainstorms. In particular, the stochasticity of rainfall presents challenges to simulating the hydrological response of dryland basins and understanding flow connectivity from hillslopes to the channel. Here we simulate hillslope runoff generation using rainfall characteristics produced by a simple stochastic rainfall generator, which is based on a rich rainfall dataset from the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, USA. We assess hillslope runoff generation using the hydrological model, COUP2D, driven by a subset of characteristic output from multiple ensembles of decadal monsoonal rainfall from the stochastic rainfall generator. The rainfall generator operates across WGEW by simulating storms with areas smaller than the basin and enables explicit characterization of rainfall characteristics at any location. We combine the characteristics of rainfall intensity and duration with data on rainstorm area and location to model the surface runoff properties (depth, velocity, duration, distance downslope) on a range of hillslopes within the basin derived from LiDAR analysis. We also analyze connectivity of flow from hillslopes to the channel for various combinations of hillslopes and storms. This approach provides a framework for understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff generation and connectivity that is faithful to the hydrological characteristics of dryland environments.

Flood Frequency Analysis With Historical and Paleoflood Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

1986-05-01

An investigation is made of flood quantile estimators which can employ "historical" and paleoflood information in flood frequency analyses. Two categories of historical information are considered: "censored" data, where the magnitudes of historical flood peaks are known; and "binomial" data, where only threshold exceedance information is available. A Monte Carlo study employing the two-parameter lognormal distribution shows that maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can extract the equivalent of an additional 10-30 years of gage record from a 50-year period of historical observation. The MLE routines are shown to be substantially better than an adjusted-moment estimator similar to the one recommended in Bulletin 17B of the United States Water Resources Council Hydrology Committee (1982). The MLE methods performed well even when floods were drawn from other than the assumed lognormal distribution.

Disturbance Hydrology: Preparing for an Increasingly Disturbed Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Mohr, Christian H.; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-12-01

This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre and postdisturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

Disturbance hydrology: Preparing for an increasingly disturbed future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Mohr, Christian H.; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-01-01

This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre- and post-disturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Thorne, Robin; Marsh, Terry

2012-01-01

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

Hyphenated hydrology: Multidisciplinary evolution of water resource science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCurley, K. 4553; Jawitz, J. W.

2016-12-01

Hydrology has advanced considerably as a scientific discipline since its recognized inception in the mid-20th century. While hydrology may have evolved from the singular viewpoint of a more rigid physical or engineering science, modern water resource related questions have forced adaptation toward a deliberate interdisciplinary context. Over the past few decades, many of the eventual manifestations of this evolution have been foreseen by prominent expert hydrologists, though their narrative descriptions were not substantially quantified. This study addresses that gap by directly measuring and inspecting the words that hydrologists use to define and describe their research endeavors. We analyzed 16,591 journal article titles from 1965-2015 in Water Resources Research, through which the scientific dialogue and its time-sensitive progression emerges. Word frequency and term concurrence reveal the dynamic timing of the lateral movement of hydrology across multiple disciplines and a deepening of scientific discourse with respect to traditional hydrologic questions. This study concludes that formerly exotic disciplines are increasingly modifying hydrology, prompting new insights as well as inspiring unconventional perspectives on old questions.

Review of Understanding of Earth's Hydrological Cycle: Observations, Theory and Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rast, Michael; Johannessen, Johnny; Mauser, Wolfram

2014-05-01

Water is our most precious and arguably most undervalued natural resource. It is essential for life on our planet, for food production and economic development. Moreover, water plays a fundamental role in shaping weather and climate. However, with the growing global population, the planet's water resources are constantly under threat from overuse and pollution. In addition, the effects of a changing climate are thought to be leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather causing floods, landslides and drought. The need to understand and monitor our environment and its resources, including advancing our knowledge of the hydrological cycle, has never been more important and apparent. The best approach to do so on a global scale is from space. This paper provides an overview of the major components of the hydrological cycle, the status of their observations from space and related data products and models for hydrological variable retrievals. It also lists the current and planned satellite missions contributing to advancing our understanding of the hydrological cycle on a global scale. Further details of the hydrological cycle are substantiated in several of the other papers in this Special Issue.

Records of pan (floodplain wetland) sedimentation as an approach for post-hoc investigation of the hydrological impacts of dam impoundment: The Pongolo river, KwaZulu-Natal.

PubMed

Heath, S K; Plater, A J

2010-07-01

River impoundment by dams has far-reaching consequences for downstream floodplains in terms of hydrology, water quality, geomorphology, ecology and ecosystem services. With the imperative of economic development, there is the danger that potential environmental impacts are not assessed adequately or monitored appropriately. Here, an investigation of sediment composition of two pans (floodplain wetlands) in the Pongolo River floodplain, KwaZulu-Natal, downstream of the Pongolapoort dam constructed in 1974, is considered as a method for post-hoc assessment of the impacts on river hydrology, sediment supply and water quality. Bumbe and Sokhunti pans have contrasting hydrological regimes in terms of their connection to the main Pongolo channel - Bumbe is a shallow ephemeral pan and Sokhunti is a deep, perennial water body. The results of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) geochemical analysis of their sediment records over a depth of >1 m show that whilst the two pans exhibit similar sediment composition and variability in their lower part, Bumbe pan exhibits a shift toward increased fine-grained mineral supply and associated nutrient influx at a depth of c. 45 cm whilst Sokhunti pan is characterised by increased biogenic productivity at a depth of c. 26 cm due to enhanced nutrient status. The underlying cause is interpreted as a shift in hydrology to a 'post-dam' flow regime of reduced flood frequencies with more regular baseline flows which reduce the average flow velocity. In addition, Sokhunti shows a greater sensitivity to soil influx during flood events due to the nature of its 'background' of autochthonous biogenic sedimentation. The timing of the overall shift in sediment composition and the dates of the mineral inwash events are not well defined, but the potential for these wetlands as sensitive recorders of dam-induced changes in floodplain hydrology, especially those with a similar setting to Sokhunti pan, is clearly demonstrated. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the potentials of multiple climate variables in assessing the spatio-temporal characteristics of hydrological droughts over the Volta Basin.

PubMed

Ndehedehe, Christopher E; Awange, Joseph L; Corner, Robert J; Kuhn, Michael; Okwuashi, Onuwa

2016-07-01

Multiple drought episodes over the Volta basin in recent reports may lead to food insecurity and loss of revenue. However, drought studies over the Volta basin are rather generalised and largely undocumented due to sparse ground observations and unsuitable framework to determine their space-time occurrence. In this study, we examined the utility of standardised indicators (standardised precipitation index (SPI), standardised runoff index (SRI), standardised soil moisture index (SSI), and multivariate standardised drought index (MSDI)) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived terrestrial water storage to assess hydrological drought characteristics over the basin. In order to determine the space-time patterns of hydrological drought in the basin, Independent Component Analysis (ICA), a higher order statistical technique was employed. The results show that SPI and SRI exhibit inconsistent behaviour in observed wet years presupposing a non-linear relationship that reflects the slow response of river discharge to precipitation especially after a previous extreme dry period. While the SPI and SSI show a linear relationship with a correlation of 0.63, the correlation between the MSDIs derived from combining precipitation/river discharge and precipitation/soil moisture indicates a significant value of 0.70 and shows an improved skill in hydrological drought monitoring over the Volta basin during the study period. The ICA-derived spatio-temporal hydrological drought patterns show Burkina Faso and the Lake Volta areas as predominantly drought zones. Further, the statistically significant negative correlations of pacific decadal oscillations (0.39 and 0.25) with temporal evolutions of drought in Burkina Faso and Ghana suggest the possible influence of low frequency large scale oscillations in the observed wet and dry regimes over the basin. Finally, our approach in drought assessment over the Volta basin contributes to a broad framework for hydrological drought monitoring that will complement existing methods while looking forward to a longer record of GRACE observations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Process Inference from High Frequency Temporal Variations in Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Dynamics Across Nested Spatial Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tunaley, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Lessels, J. S.; Soulsby, C.

2014-12-01

In order to understand aquatic ecosystem functioning it is critical to understand the processes that control the spatial and temporal variations in DOC. DOC concentrations are highly dynamic, however, our understanding at short, high frequency timescales is still limited. Optical sensors which act as a proxy for DOC provide the opportunity to investigate near-continuous DOC variations in order to understand the hydrological and biogeochemical processes that control concentrations at short temporal scales. Here we present inferred 15 minute stream water DOC data for a 12 month period at three nested scales (1km2, 3km2 and 31km2) for the Bruntland Burn, a headwater catchment in NE Scotland. High frequency data were measured using FDOM and CDOM probes which work by measuring the fluorescent component and coloured component, respectively, of DOC when exposed to ultraviolet light. Both FDOM and CDOM were strongly correlated (r2 >0.8) with DOC allowing high frequency estimations. Results show the close coupling of DOC with discharge throughout the sampling period at all three spatial scales. However, analysis at the event scale highlights anticlockwise hysteresis relationships between DOC and discharge due to the delay in DOC being flushed from the increasingly large areas of peaty soils as saturation zones expand and increase hydrological connectivity. Lag times vary between events dependent on antecedent conditions. During a 10 year drought period in late summer 2013 it was apparent that very small changes in discharge on a 15 minute timescale result in high increases in DOC. This suggests transport limitation during this period where DOC builds up in the soil and is not flushed regularly, therefore any subsequent increase in discharge results in large DOC peaks. The high frequency sensors also reveal diurnal variability during summer months related to the photo-oxidation, evaporative and biological influences of DOC during the day. This relationship is less significant during the winter months.

Inversion of multi-frequency electromagnetic induction data for 3D characterization of hydraulic conductivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brosten, Troy R.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Schultz, Gregory M.; Curtis, Gary P.; Lane, John W.

2011-01-01

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) instruments provide rapid, noninvasive, and spatially dense data for characterization of soil and groundwater properties. Data from multi-frequency EMI tools can be inverted to provide quantitative electrical conductivity estimates as a function of depth. In this study, multi-frequency EMI data collected across an abandoned uranium mill site near Naturita, Colorado, USA, are inverted to produce vertical distribution of electrical conductivity (EC) across the site. The relation between measured apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) and hydraulic conductivity (K) is weak (correlation coefficient of 0.20), whereas the correlation between the depth dependent EC obtained from the inversions, and K is sufficiently strong to be used for hydrologic estimation (correlation coefficient of − 0.62). Depth-specific EC values were correlated with co-located K measurements to develop a site-specific ln(EC)–ln(K) relation. This petrophysical relation was applied to produce a spatially detailed map of K across the study area. A synthetic example based on ECa values at the site was used to assess model resolution and correlation loss given variations in depth and/or measurement error. Results from synthetic modeling indicate that optimum correlation with K occurs at ~ 0.5 m followed by a gradual correlation loss of 90% at 2.3 m. These results are consistent with an analysis of depth of investigation (DOI) given the range of frequencies, transmitter–receiver separation, and measurement errors for the field data. DOIs were estimated at 2.0 ± 0.5 m depending on the soil conductivities. A 4-layer model, with varying thicknesses, was used to invert the ECa to maximize available information within the aquifer region for improved correlations with K. Results show improved correlation between K and the corresponding inverted EC at similar depths, underscoring the importance of inversion in using multi-frequency EMI data for hydrologic estimation.

Inversion of multi-frequency electromagnetic induction data for 3D characterization of hydraulic conductivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brosten, T.R.; Day-Lewis, F. D.; Schultz, G.M.; Curtis, G.P.; Lane, J.W.

2011-01-01

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) instruments provide rapid, noninvasive, and spatially dense data for characterization of soil and groundwater properties. Data from multi-frequency EMI tools can be inverted to provide quantitative electrical conductivity estimates as a function of depth. In this study, multi-frequency EMI data collected across an abandoned uranium mill site near Naturita, Colorado, USA, are inverted to produce vertical distribution of electrical conductivity (EC) across the site. The relation between measured apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) and hydraulic conductivity (K) is weak (correlation coefficient of 0.20), whereas the correlation between the depth dependent EC obtained from the inversions, and K is sufficiently strong to be used for hydrologic estimation (correlation coefficient of -0.62). Depth-specific EC values were correlated with co-located K measurements to develop a site-specific ln(EC)-ln(K) relation. This petrophysical relation was applied to produce a spatially detailed map of K across the study area. A synthetic example based on ECa values at the site was used to assess model resolution and correlation loss given variations in depth and/or measurement error. Results from synthetic modeling indicate that optimum correlation with K occurs at ~0.5m followed by a gradual correlation loss of 90% at 2.3m. These results are consistent with an analysis of depth of investigation (DOI) given the range of frequencies, transmitter-receiver separation, and measurement errors for the field data. DOIs were estimated at 2.0??0.5m depending on the soil conductivities. A 4-layer model, with varying thicknesses, was used to invert the ECa to maximize available information within the aquifer region for improved correlations with K. Results show improved correlation between K and the corresponding inverted EC at similar depths, underscoring the importance of inversion in using multi-frequency EMI data for hydrologic estimation. ?? 2011.

Hydrological character of the soil of a degraded area: comparison of analysis physical, chemical and floristic vegetational

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfredi, Paolo; Cassinari, Chiara; Giupponi, Luca; Sichel, Giorgio Maria; Trevisan, Marco

2013-04-01

This work is an integral part of a project co-financed by the European Union "Environmental recovery of degraded soils and desertified land by a new technology treatment for the recovery of the land" (Life 10 ENV IT 400 "New Life"); this technology is based on a treatment (patented by m.c.m. Ecosistemi) of chemical mechanical processing of degraded soils with an initial process of disgregation of the same followed by their reconstitution incorporating soil matrices, a subsequent polycondensation with humic acids and a final restoration. The area of intervention of the New Life project lies in the municipal territory of Piacenza, where between the years 70 and 80 has been made a landfill for municipal solid waste with subsequent restoration work by placing a layer of soil cover. The first phase of the New Life project was that of a physical and chemical characterization of different cover soils of the area combined with floristic-vegetational analysis. At this stage the present study aims to compare the data related to the analysis of the vegetation with those returned by investigation of hydrological characteristics of soils performed by laboratory methods, together to confront two theoretical calculation methods for determination of hydrological parameters. The comparison of the ecological study of the vegetation with the outcomes obtained by the classical methods regarding the determination of water retention, allows you to have a picture that is as detailed as possible in describing the characteristics of the substrate. The comparison also with the two methods of calculation, which determines the hydrological character conditions in average soil condition, allows you to ascertain the actual disturbance of the soil in the area. In order to delineate the hydrological characteristics of the soils sampled, were quantified by the Maximum Water Concentration, the capacity range, the point of Withering by the method of the Tensiometric box and the Pressure Membrane Extractor (Piastre di Richards): were carried out from water retention curves and calculated the values of percolating water (water circulation) and the useful water (maximum available water) were also determined physical and chemical parameters that most affect the hydrological characteristics of the soil such as texture, organic carbon, salinity and total limestone. The same soils were subjected to a floristic and vegetational analysis with relative comparison of the biological spectrum of the site with the spectra of other territories taken in comparison (Piacenza, Emilia Romagna, northern Italy, southern Italy). The 40% of the plants of the area is represented by Therophytes, species that are adapted to live in environments disturbed by human activities or climate. The high frequency of this species does not seem motivated either by the ombrothermic diagram elaborated with the help of the climatic data of the meteorological station of Piacenza, which was observed for a brief period the appearance of water deficit, neither linked to the interference from human activities which turns out to be low. Keywords: degraded soils, hydrological character, floristic vegetation analysis

Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

The effects of hydrologic change on human health and well-being could be most readily apparent with respect to changes in streamflow and the subsequent increase in the frequency of minor flooding and the frequency of summer and fall low streamflows. These changes could require the development of plans to adapt, protect, and upgrade infrastructure, such as bridges, culverts, roads, and other structures. The precipitation runoff modeling shows that rivers and watersheds in New Hampshire will likely change in response to climate change, and that this response varies with season and latitude. Although four representative areas were simulated in this study, additional models could be used to predict the response over the entire State.

Paleohydrology of flash floods in small desert watersheds in western Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, P. Kyle; Baker, Victor R.

2001-06-01

In this study, geological, historical, and meteorological data were combined to produce a regional chronology of flood magnitude and frequency in nine small basins (7-70 km2). The chronology spans more than 1000 years and demonstrates that detailed records of flood magnitude and frequency can be compiled in arid regions with little to no conventional hydrologic information. The recent (i.e., post-1950) flood history was evaluated by comparing a 50-year series of aerial photographs with precipitation data, ages of flood-transported beer cans, anthropogenic horizons in flood sediments, postbomb 14C dates on flotsam, and anecdotal accounts. Stratigraphic analysis of paleoflood deposits extended the regional flood record in time, and associated flood magnitudes were determined by incorporating relict high-water evidence into a hydraulic model. The results reveal a general consistency among the magnitudes of the largest floods in the historical and the paleoflood records and indicate that the magnitudes and relative frequencies of actual large floods are at variance with "100-year" flood magnitudes predicted by regional flood frequency models. This suggests that the predictive equations may not be appropriate for regulatory, management, or design purposes in the absence of additional, real data on flooding. Augmenting conventional approaches to regional flood magnitude and frequency analysis with real information derived from the alternative methods described here is a viable approach to improving assessments of regional flood characteristics in sparsely gaged desert areas.

Statistical and Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM-Based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: Are the Latest Satellite Precipitation Products 3B42V7 Ready for Use in Ungauged Basins?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Xianwu; Hong, Yang; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Gourley, Jonathan; Huffman, George J.; Khan, Sadiq Ibrahim; Dorji, Chhimi; Chen, Sheng

2013-01-01

The objective of this study is to quantitatively evaluate the successive Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products and further to explore the improvements and error propagation of the latest 3B42V7 algorithm relative to its predecessor 3B42V6 using the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model in the mountainous Wangchu Basin of Bhutan. First, the comparison to a decade-long (2001-2010) daily rain gauge dataset reveals that: 1) 3B42V7 generally improves upon 3B42V6s underestimation both for the whole basin (bias from -41.15 to -8.38) and for a 0.250.25 grid cell with high-density gauges (bias from -40.25 to 0.04), though with modest enhancement of correlation coefficients (CC) (from 0.36 to 0.40 for basin-wide and from 0.37 to 0.41 for grid); and 2) 3B42V7 also improves its occurrence frequency across the rain intensity spectrum. Using the CREST model that has been calibrated with rain gauge inputs, the 3B42V6-based simulation shows limited hydrologic prediction NSCE skill (0.23 in daily scale and 0.25 in monthly scale) while 3B42V7 performs fairly well (0.66 in daily scale and 0.77 in monthly scale), a comparable skill score with the gauge rainfall simulations. After recalibrating the model with the respective TMPA data, significant improvements are observed for 3B42V6 across all categories, but not as much enhancement for the already well-performing 3B42V7 except for a reduction in bias (from -26.98 to -4.81). In summary, the latest 3B42V7 algorithm reveals a significant upgrade from 3B42V6 both in precipitation accuracy (i.e., correcting the underestimation) thus improving its potential hydrological utility. Forcing the model with 3B42V7 rainfall yields comparable skill scores with in-situ gauges even without recalibration of the hydrological model by the satellite precipitation, a compensating approach often used but not favored by the hydrology community, particularly in ungauged basins.

Inter-comparison of weather and circulation type classifications for hydrological drought development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleig, Anne K.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hisdal, Hege; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannah, David M.

Classifications of weather and circulation patterns are often applied in research seeking to relate atmospheric state to surface environmental phenomena. However, numerous procedures have been applied to define the patterns, thus limiting comparability between studies. The COST733 Action “ Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions” tests 73 different weather type classifications (WTC) and their associate weather types (WTs) and compares the WTCs’ utility for various applications. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of these WTCs for analysis of regional hydrological drought development in north-western Europe. Hydrological drought is defined in terms of a Regional Drought Area Index (RDAI), which is based on deficits derived from daily river flow series. RDAI series (1964-2001) were calculated for four homogeneous regions in Great Britain and two in Denmark. For each region, WTs associated with hydrological drought development were identified based on antecedent and concurrent WT-frequencies for major drought events. The utility of the different WTCs for the study of hydrological drought development was evaluated, and the influence of WTC attributes, i.e. input variables, number of defined WTs and general classification concept, on WTC performance was assessed. The objective Grosswetterlagen (OGWL), the objective Second-Generation Lamb Weather Type Classification (LWT2) with 18 WTs and two implementations of the objective Wetterlagenklassifikation (WLK; with 40 and 28 WTs) outperformed all other WTCs. In general, WTCs with more WTs (⩾27) were found to perform better than WTCs with less (⩽18) WTs. The influence of input variables was not consistent across the different classification procedures, and the performance of a WTC was determined primarily by the classification procedure itself. Overall, classification procedures following the relatively simple general classification concept of predefining WTs based on thresholds, performed better than those based on more sophisticated classification concepts such as deriving WTs by cluster analysis or artificial neural networks. In particular, PCA based WTCs with 9 WTs and automated WTCs with a high number of predefined WTs (subjectively and threshold based) performed well. It is suggested that the explicit consideration of the air flow characteristics of meridionality, zonality and cyclonicity in the definition of WTs is a useful feature for a WTC when analysing regional hydrological drought development.

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, J.G.; Kauffman, L.J.; Ayers, M.A.; Wolock, D.M.; Colarullo, S.J.

2008-01-01

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

An Examination of Drought-Induced Hydraulic Stress in Conifer Forests Using a Coupled Ecohydrologic Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeone, C.; Maneta, M. P.; Holden, Z. A.; Dobrowski, S.; Sala, A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that increases in drought stress due to climate change will increase forest mortality across the western U.S. Although ecohydrologic models used to study regional hydrologic stress response in forests have made rapid advances in recent years, they often incorporate simplified descriptions of the local hydrology, do not implement an explicit description of plant hydraulics, and do not permit to study the tradeoffs between frequency, intensity, and accumulation of hydrologic stress in vegetation. We use the spatially-distributed, mechanistic ecohydrologic model Ech2o, which effectively captures spatial variations in both hydrology, energy exchanges, and regional climate to simulate high-resolution tree hydraulics, estimating soil and leaf water potential, tree effective water conductance, and percent loss of conductivity in the xylem (PLC) at 250 meter resolution and sub-daily timestep across a topographically complex landscape. Tree hydraulics are simulated assuming a diffusive process in the soil-tree-atmosphere continuum. We use PLC to develop a vegetation dynamic stress index that scales plant-level processes to the landscape scale, and that takes into account the temporal accumulation of instantaneous hydraulic stress, growing season length, frequency and duration of drought periods, and plant drought tolerance. The resulting index is interpreted as the probability of drought induced tree mortality in a given location during the simulated period. We apply this index to regions of Northern Idaho and Western Montana. Results show that drought stress is highly spatially variable, sensitive to local-scale hydrologic and atmospheric conditions, and responsive to the recovery rate from individual hydraulic stress episodes.

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams

PubMed Central

Jaeger, Kristin L.; Olden, Julian D.; Pelland, Noel A.

2014-01-01

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6–9% over the course of a year and up to 12–18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna. PMID:25136090

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams.

PubMed

Jaeger, Kristin L; Olden, Julian D; Pelland, Noel A

2014-09-23

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6-9% over the course of a year and up to 12-18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.

Klamath River Reconstruction: Strategies for Dealing with Uncertainty in Calibration Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, C. A.; Malevich, S. B.; Meko, D. M.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2013-12-01

The upper Klamath Basin has been the center of conflict over competing water uses and values in recent years, exacerbated by drought conditions. Currently, water needs for irrigation, fish, and riparian environments are being addressed and plans for sharing limited water resources are being negotiated. In a number of major river basins in the western US, extended records of streamflow from tree rings have been found useful for planning by placing recent droughts in a long term context and characterizing the long-term hydrologic variability over past centuries. The focus of this research is the first reconstruction of the upper Klamath River and its potential use for management. One challenge in the reconstruction of Klamath River streamflow is the availability of high quality streamflow data for reconstruction model calibration. In the Klamath basin, a long history of diversions for irrigation along with complex wetland hydrology has made the accurate estimation of natural flows difficult. A number of sources of hydrology are available, but all show differences in magnitudes of high and low flows. While the uncertainties in the calibration streamflow data can be described and quantified, they cannot be overcome, and thus impart uncertainty to the resulting reconstruction. Thus, it is important to develop analysis strategies that highlight the most certain aspects of the reconstruction. In the case of the Klamath River records, the most robust information concerns the sequences of flow, and duration and frequency of wet and dry intervals. In the reconstruction, which extends from 1493-2010, analyses of frequency and distribution of extreme low flow years, runs of consecutive years of low flows, and the probability of transitions between wet and dry years all document long-term natural hydrologic variability, over which the impacts of climate change will be imposed. While not a perfect record of past flow, the Klamath reconstruction provides information that can be useful to management. A challenge is to convey the uncertainties, but to also highlight the information for which we have the most confidence, and why.

Riparian plant community structure in a managed hydrological regime. University of Wyoming National Park Service Research Center Annual Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mellman-Brown, Sabine; Roberts, Dave; Pugesek, Bruce H.

2008-01-01

The hydrology of the Snake River in Grand Teton National Park is partly determined by releases from Jackson Lake Dam. The dam was first built in 1908 and became part of the National Park system when GTNP was expanded to include most of Jackson Hole. Completion of the present structure of Jackson Lake Dam occurred in 1917 and resulted in an increase above the natural level of Jackson Lake of 11.9 m. The Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) manages the dam and sets discharge schedules, primarily to meet agricultural needs, and to a lesser extent the needs of recreational river use. Major changes to the hydrological regime of the Snake River include lower than natural peak releases, decrease in frequency of extreme flood events , and unusually high flows from July to September. In addition , peak releases prior to 1957 were not synchronized with spring runoff but shifted to July or early August. Changes in inundation frequencies of floodplains , inundation duration and timing of peak flows have profound effects on the extent and composition of the riparian zone.

Paleoecology and high-resolution paleohydrology of a kettle peatland in upper Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Gray, Catherine E. D.

2004-01-01

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.

Revealing Forest Harvesting Effects on Large Peakflows in Rain-On-Snow Environment with a New Stochastic Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, W. N.; Alila, Y.

2017-12-01

Using nine pairs of control-treatment watersheds with varying climate, physiography, and harvesting practices in the Rain-On-Snow (ROS) environment of the Pacific Northwest region, we explore the linkage between environmental control and the sensitivity of peakflow response to harvesting effects. Compared to previous paired watershed studies in ROS environment, we employed an experimental design of Frequency Pairing to isolate the effects of disturbances on systems' response. In contrary, the aspect of changing frequency distributions is not commonly invoked in previous literatures on the topic of forests and floods. Our results show how harvesting can dramatically increase the magnitude of all peakflows on record and how such effects can increase with increasing return periods, as a consequence of substantial increases to the mean and variance of the peakflow frequency distribution. Most critically, peakflows with return period larger than 10 years can increase in frequency, where the larger the peakflow event the more frequent it may become. The sensitivity of the upper tail of the frequency distribution of peakflows was found to be linked to the physiographic and climatic characteristics via a unifying synchronization / desynchronization spatial scaling mechanism that controls the generation of rain-on-snow runoff. This new physically-based stochastic hydrology understanding on the response of watersheds in ROS environments runs counter the deterministic prevailing wisdom of forest hydrology, which presumes a limited and diminishing role of forest cover as the magnitude of the peakflow event increases. By demonstrating the need for invoking the dimension of frequency in the understanding and prediction of the effects of harvesting on peakflows, findings from this study suggested that pure deterministic hypotheses and experimental designs that solely focusing on the changing magnitude of peakflows have been misguiding forest hydrology research for over a century on this topic.

Hydrologic considerations for estimation of storage-capacity requirements of impounding and side-channel reservoirs for water supply in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2001-01-01

This report provides data and methods to aid in the hydrologic design or evaluation of impounding reservoirs and side-channel reservoirs used for water supply in Ohio. Data from 117 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Ohio were analyzed by means of nonsequential-mass-curve-analysis techniques to develop relations between storage requirements, water demand, duration, and frequency. Information also is provided on minimum runoff for selected durations and frequencies. Systematic record lengths for the streamflow-gaging stations ranged from about 10 to 75 years; however, in many cases, additional streamflow record was synthesized. For impounding reservoirs, families of curves are provided to facilitate the estimation of storage requirements as a function of demand and the ratio of the 7-day, 2-year low flow to the mean annual flow. Information is provided with which to evaluate separately the effects of evaporation on storage requirements. Comparisons of storage requirements for impounding reservoirs determined by nonsequential-mass-curve-analysis techniques with storage requirements determined by annual-mass-curve techniques that employ probability routing to account for carryover-storage requirements indicate that large differences in computed required storages can result from the two methods, particularly for conditions where demand cannot be met from within-year storage. For side-channel reservoirs, tables of demand-storage-frequency information are provided for a primary pump relation consisting of one variable-speed pump with a pumping capacity that ranges from 0.1 to 20 times demand. Tables of adjustment ratios are provided to facilitate determination of storage requirements for 19 other pump sets consisting of assorted combinations of fixed-speed pumps or variable-speed pumps with aggregate pumping capacities smaller than or equal to the primary pump relation. The effects of evaporation on side-channel reservoir storage requirements are incorporated into the storage-requirement estimates. The effects of an instream-flow requirement equal to the 80-percent-duration flow are also incorporated into the storage-requirement estimates.

A method for characterizing late-season low-flow regime in the upper Grand Ronde River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Valerie J.; White, Seth

2016-04-19

This report describes a method for estimating ecologically relevant low-flow metrics that quantify late‑season streamflow regime for ungaged sites in the upper Grande Ronde River Basin, Oregon. The analysis presented here focuses on sites sampled by the Columbia River Inter‑Tribal Fish Commission as part of their efforts to monitor habitat restoration to benefit spring Chinook salmon recovery in the basin. Streamflow data were provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Oregon Water Resources Department. Specific guidance was provided for selection of streamgages, development of probabilistic frequency distributions for annual 7-day low-flow events, and regionalization of the frequency curves based on multivariate analysis of watershed characteristics. Evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the various components of this protocol indicates that the results are reliable for the intended purpose of hydrologic classification to support ecological analysis of factors contributing to juvenile salmon success. They should not be considered suitable for more standard water-resource evaluations that require greater precision, especially those focused on management and forecasting of extreme low-flow conditions.

The long-term hydrological effect of forest stands on the stability of slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogaard, T. A.; Meng, W.; van Beek, L. P. H.

2012-04-01

Forest is widely known to improve slope stability as a result of mechanical and hydrological effects. While the mechanics underlying the stabilizing process of root reinforcement are well understood and quantified, the influence of forest on the occurrence of critical hydrological conditions in terms of suction or pore pressure remains uncertain. Due to seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations, the stabilizing influence of evaporation and transpiration is difficult to isolate from the overall noise of the hydrological signal. More long-term effects of forest stands on soil development are highly variable and thus difficult to observe and quantify. Often these effects are ambivalent, having potentially a stabilizing or destabilizing influence on a slope under particular conditions (e.g., more structured soils leading to both rapid infiltration and drainage). Consequently, it can be postulated that forests will hydrologically influence the magnitude-frequency distribution of landsliding, not only at the stand level but also on a regional scale through the groundwater system. The overall aim of this research is to understand and quantify the stabilizing hydrological effect of forests on potentially unstable slopes. To this end, we focus on the changes in the magnitude-frequency distribution of landsliding that arise as a result of variations in evapotranspiration losses over the life cycle of stands. Temporal variations in evapotranspiration comprise first of all the interception that can account for an important amount of evaporation from a forest, and that changes with seasonal and annual variations in the interception capacity of the canopy and forest floor. Transpiration also represents an important loss that varies over the various growth stages of a forest stand. Based on a literature review of water consumption by tree species and water balance studies of forested catchments we defined the potential transpiration for different growth stages. This information we used in a spatially distributed, physical-based, dynamical model to simulate the hydrology and resulting stability for a catchment on a daily scale. The results can be used to identify end members of the hydrological influence of forests on slope stability and the typical variations in stability associated with the various growth stages. They indicate that the influence of forest stand age on the water consumption can be significant and has clear consequences for the antecedent soil moisture condition within a slope and thus on the potential for slope destabilization. The outcome should help to understand the long-term impact of vegetation on slope hydrology and define sustainable and reliable management strategies at the scale of forest stands. Keywords: slope stability, hydrology, vegetation, long-tem effect

Characterization of large-scale fluctuations and short-term variability of Seine river daily streamflow (France) over the period 1950-2008 by empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert-Huang transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.; Fournier, M.

2010-12-01

Daily Seine river flow from 1950 to 2008 was analyzed using Hilbert-Huang Tranform (HHT). For the last ten years, this method which combines the so-called Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) multiresolution analysis and the Hilbert transform has proven its efficiency for the analysis of transient oscillatory signals, although the mathematical definition of the EMD is not totally established yet. HHT also provides an interesting alternative to other time-frequency or time-scale analysis of non-stationary signals, the most famous of which being wavelet-based approaches. In this application of HHT to the analysis of the hydrological variability of the Seine river, we seek to characterize the interannual patterns of daily flow, differenciate them from the short-term dynamics and eventually interpret them in the context of regional climate regime fluctuations. In this aim, HHT is also applied to the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through the annual winter-months NAO index time series. For both hydrological and climatic signals, dominant variability scales are extracted and their temporal variations analyzed by determination of the intantaneous frequency of each component. When compared to previous ones obtained from continuous wavelet transform (CWT) on the same data, HHT results highlighted the same scales and somewhat the same internal components for each signal. However, HHT allowed the identification and extraction of much more similar features during the 1950-2008 period (e.g., around 7-yr, between NAO and Seine flow than what was obtained from CWT, which comes to say that variability scales in flow likely to originate from climatic regime fluctuations were much properly identified in river flow. In addition, a more accurate determination of singularities in the natural processes analyzed were authorized by HHT compared to CWT, in which case the time-frequency resolution partly depends on the basic properties of the filter (i.e., the reference wavelet chosen initially). Compared to CWT or even to discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, HHT is auto-adaptive, non-parametric, allows an orthogonal decomposition of the signal analyzed and provides a more accurate estimation of changing variability scales across time for highly transient signals.

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Preferential Flow Occurrence in the Shale Hills Catchment: From the Hillslope to the Catchment Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Lin, H.

2013-12-01

Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of preferential flow (PF) occurrence is important in revealing hillslope and catchment hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Quantitative assessment of the frequency and control of PF occurrence in the field, however, has been limited, especially at the landscape scale of hillslope and catchment. By using 5.5-years' (2007-2012) real-time soil moisture at 10 sites response to 323 precipitation events, we tested the temporal consistency of PF occurrence at the hillslope scale in the forested Shale Hills Catchment; and by using 25 additional sites with at least 1-year data (2011-2012), we evaluated the spatial patterns of PF occurrence across the catchment. To explore the potential effects of PF occurrence on catchment hydrology, wavelet analysis was performed on the recorded time series of hydrological signals (i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, catchment discharge). Considerable temporal consistence was observed in both the frequency and the main controls of PF occurrence at the hillslope scale, which was attributed largely to the statistical stability of precipitation pattern over the monitoring period and the relatively stable subsurface preferential pathways. Preferential flow tended to occur more often in response to intense rainfall events, and favored the conditions at dry hilltop or wet valley floor sites. When upscaling to the entire catchment, topographic control on the PF occurrence was amplified remarkably, leading to the identification of a subsurface PF network in the catchment. Higher frequency of PF occurrence was observed at the valley floor (average 48%), hilltop (average 46%), and swales/hillslopes near the stream (average 40%), while the hillslopes in the eastern part of the catchment were least likely to experience PF (0-20%). No clear relationship, however, was observed between terrain attributes and PF occurrence, because the initiation and persistency of PF in this catchment was controlled jointly by complex interactions among landform units, soil types, initial soil moisture, precipitation features, and season. Through the wavelet method (coherence spectrum and phase differences), dual-pore filtering effects of soil system were proven, rendering it possible to further infer characteristic properties of the underlying hydrological processes in the subsurface. We found that preferential flow dominates the catchment discharge response at short-time periods (< 3 days), while the matrix flow may dominate the discharge response at the time scales of around 10-12 days. The temporal and spatial patterns of PF occurrence revealed in this study can help advance the modeling and prediction of complex PF dynamics in this and other similar landscapes.

Hydropedology of a mildly-arid loess covered area, southern Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yair, Aaron; Goldshleger, Naftali

2016-04-01

Extensive loess covered areas characterize the mildly arid areas of western Israel, where average annual rainfall is 280 mm. Hydrological data available point to a peculiar hydrological behavior of the ephemeral streams. The frequency of channel flow is very high. Four to eight flows are recorded annually. However, even in extreme rain events peak discharges are extremely low representing 0.002-0.005% of the rain amount received by the basin at peak flow. In addition, hydrographs are usually characterized by very steep rising and falling limbs, representative of saturated or nearly saturated areas, extending over a limited part of the watershed. Following this observation we advanced the hypothesis that storm channel runoff originated in the channel itself, with negligible contribution from the adjoining hillslopes. The study was based on two complementary approaches. The hydrological approach was based on the detailed analysis of rainfall-runoff relationships in a small watershed (11 km2). The second approach was based on the toposequence concept. According to this concept soil's properties are closely related to the position of a soil along a slope. Constituents and water lost by the upper part of the slope accumulate in its lower part, which is richer in clay and better leached. Several boreholes were dug along a hillslope 400 m long. Soil samples were collected for chemical and particle size analysis. In addition, samples for soil moisture data were taken following each major rain event. Chemical data obtained show no significant observable difference in the downslope direction. Similar results were also obtained for the particle size distribution and soil moisture content. However, particle size distribution in the active channel reveals very high clay content down to 60 cm. Data obtained lead to two main conclusions. 1. Data presented perfectly fit the concept of "Partial Area Contribution", in its narrow sense, as it presents an extreme case of hydrological discontinuity at the hillslope-channel interface. The high water absorption of the clayey alluvium limits infiltration depth resulting in a very high frequency of channel flow, even at low intensity rain events. The limited wet channel area is responsible for the low peak discharges, and for the steep shapes of most hydrographs. 2. The lack of pedological trends in the downslope direction is an additional indication of the limited connectivity between the hillslopes and the adjoining channel. The limited connectivity is attributed to the prevalence of low rain intensities in the study area. 90-95% of the rains are below 10 mm/hr., whereas final infiltration rates of the loamy-clayey soils are 10-15 mm/hr. higher rain intensities do exist, but there duration is extremely short, drastically limiting flow distances and overland flow contribution to the channel. The present study is also relevant to our understanding of pedological processes in dry-land areas. The high frequency of the intermittent low intensity rainstorms limits runoff generation and flow distances, and casts doubt on the general application of the toposequence approach.

Flood model for Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

2017-04-01

Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula scheme to generate probabilistic flood event set. The derived design flows for selected rivers inside model domain were used as an input for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation modelling techniques (using the tool TUFLOW by BMT WBM) on mesh size 30 x 30 metres. Outputs from inundation modelling and stochastic event set were implemented in the Aon Benfield's platform ELEMENTS developed and managed internally by Impact Forecasting; Aon Benfield internal catastrophe model development center. The model was designed to evaluate potential financial impact caused by fluvial flooding on portfolios of insurance and/or reinsurance companies. The structure of presented model follows typical scheme of financial loss catastrophe model and combines hazard with exposure and vulnerability to produce potential financial loss expressed in the form of loss exceedance probability curve and many other insured perspectives, such as average annual loss, event or quantile loss tables and etc. Model can take financial inputs as well as provide split of results for exact specified location or related higher administrative units: municipalities and 5-digit postal codes.

Urbanization Induces Nonstationarity in Extreme Rainfall Characteristics over Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, J.; Paimazumder, D.; Mohanty, M. P.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

2017-12-01

The statistical assumption of stationarity in hydrologic extreme time/event series has been relied heavily in frequency analysis. However, due to the perceivable impacts of climate change, urbanization and land use pattern, assumption of stationarity in hydrologic time series will draw erroneous results, which in turn may affect the policy and decision-making. Also, it may no longer be reasonable to model rainfall extremes as a stationary process, yet nearly all-existing infrastructure design, water resource planning methods assume that historical extreme rainfall events will remain unchanged in the future. Therefore, a comprehensive multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis has been conducted for the CONUS to identify the precipitation characteristics (intensity, duration and depth) responsible for significant nonstationarity. We use 0.250 resolution of precipitation data for a period of 1948-2006, in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. A cluster of 74 GAMLSS models has been developed by considering nonstationarity in different combinations of distribution parameters through different regression techniques, and the best-fit model is further applied for bivariate analysis. Next, four demographic variables i.e. population density, housing unit, low income population and population below poverty line, have been utilized to identify the urbanizing regions through developing urbanization index. Furthermore to strengthen the analysis, Land cover map for 1992, 2001 and 2006 have been utilized to identify the location with the high change in impervious surface. The results show significant differences in the 50- and 100-year intensity, volume and duration estimated under the both stationary and nonstationary condition in urbanizing regions. Further results exhibit that rainfall duration has been decreased while, rainfall volume has been increased under nonstationary condition, which indicates increasing flood potential of rainfall events. The present study facilitate the understanding of anthropogenic climate change to extreme rainfall characteristics i.e. intensity, volume and duration, which could be utilized in designing flood control structure through a proposed nonstationary modeling.

Modeling chloride transport using travel time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benettin, Paolo; Kirchner, James W.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Botter, Gianluca

2015-05-01

Here we present a theoretical interpretation of high-frequency, high-quality tracer time series from the Hafren catchment at Plynlimon in mid-Wales. We make use of the formulation of transport by travel time distributions to model chloride transport originating from atmospheric deposition and compute catchment-scale travel time distributions. The relevance of the approach lies in the explanatory power of the chosen tools, particularly to highlight hydrologic processes otherwise clouded by the integrated nature of the measured outflux signal. The analysis reveals the key role of residual storages that are poorly visible in the hydrological response, but are shown to strongly affect water quality dynamics. A significant accuracy in reproducing data is shown by our calibrated model. A detailed representation of catchment-scale travel time distributions has been derived, including the time evolution of the overall dispersion processes (which can be expressed in terms of time-varying storage sampling functions). Mean computed travel times span a broad range of values (from 80 to 800 days) depending on the catchment state. Results also suggest that, in the average, discharge waters are younger than storage water. The model proves able to capture high-frequency fluctuations in the measured chloride concentrations, which are broadly explained by the sharp transition between groundwaters and faster flows originating from topsoil layers. This article was corrected on 22 JUN 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

An improved bias correction method of daily rainfall data using a sliding window technique for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smitha, P. S.; Narasimhan, B.; Sudheer, K. P.; Annamalai, H.

2018-01-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to downscale the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a finer resolution for hydrological impact studies. However, RCM outputs often deviate from the observed climatological data, and therefore need bias correction before they are used for hydrological simulations. While there are a number of methods for bias correction, most of them use monthly statistics to derive correction factors, which may cause errors in the rainfall magnitude when applied on a daily scale. This study proposes a sliding window based daily correction factor derivations that help build reliable daily rainfall data from climate models. The procedure is applied to five existing bias correction methods, and is tested on six watersheds in different climatic zones of India for assessing the effectiveness of the corrected rainfall and the consequent hydrological simulations. The bias correction was performed on rainfall data downscaled using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to 0.5° × 0.5° from two different CMIP5 models (CNRM-CM5.0, GFDL-CM3.0). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) observed rainfall data was considered to test the effectiveness of the proposed bias correction method. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were employed for evaluation of different methods of bias correction. The analysis suggested that the proposed method effectively corrects the daily bias in rainfall as compared to using monthly factors. The methods such as local intensity scaling, modified power transformation and distribution mapping, which adjusted the wet day frequencies, performed superior compared to the other methods, which did not consider adjustment of wet day frequencies. The distribution mapping method with daily correction factors was able to replicate the daily rainfall pattern of observed data with NSE value above 0.81 over most parts of India. Hydrological simulations forced using the bias corrected rainfall (distribution mapping and modified power transformation methods that used the proposed daily correction factors) was similar to those simulated by the IMD rainfall. The results demonstrate that the methods and the time scales used for bias correction of RCM rainfall data have a larger impact on the accuracy of the daily rainfall and consequently the simulated streamflow. The analysis suggests that the distribution mapping with daily correction factors can be preferred for adjusting RCM rainfall data irrespective of seasons or climate zones for realistic simulation of streamflow.

Wildfire disturbance impacts on streamflow from western USA watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadol, D.; Wine, M.; Makhnin, O.

2017-12-01

Worldwide rapid changes in climate overlaid on changing land management paradigms have dramatically altered ecological disturbance regimes worldwide including in western North America. Ecological disturbances impacted include woody encroachment, pest pathogen complexes, riparian forest changes, and wildfire. These disturbances impact the hydrologic cycle, though the nature of these impacts has been difficult to quantify. Perhaps the greatest challenge is that most basins worldwide are ungauged. Taking wildfire as a globally relevant example of a key ecological disturbance, even within gauged basins, post-wildfire hydrologic response is spatially and temporally variable, affected by a host of variables including fire frequency, area burned, and recovery trajectory. Hydrologic response to wildfire is further understood to be a non-linear function of watershed characteristics and climate. Here we provide a framework that utilizes remote sensing, statistical modeling, field measurements, and geospatial methods to provide first-order estimates of ecological disturbance hydrologic impacts. We apply this framework to compare ecological disturbance hydrologic impacts amongst selected watersheds in the western USA. Here we show that ecological disturbance impacts on hydrology are highly variable, and in many cases have an effect magnitude similar to that modeled for temperature and precipitation changes.

Identification of statistically independent climatic pattern in GRACE and hydrological model data over West-Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.; Hoffmann-Dobrev, H.

2012-04-01

West-African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources, for instance reduced freshwater availability, and changes in the frequency, duration and magnitude of droughts and floods. Extracting the main patterns of water storage change in West Africa from remote sensing and linking them to climate variability, is therefore an essential step to understand the hydrological aspects of the region. In this study, the higher order statistical method of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is employed to extract statistically independent water storage patterns from monthly Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), from the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products over West Africa, for the period 2002-2012. Then, to reveal the influences of climatic teleconnections on the individual patterns, these results were correlated to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indices. To study the predictability of water storage changes, advanced statistical methods were applied on the main independent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans for the period 2002-2012 and the ICA results. Our results show a water storage decrease over the coastal regions of West Africa (including Sierra Leone, Liberia, Togo and Nigeria), associated with rainfall decrease. The comparison between GRACE estimations and WGHM results indicates some inconsistencies that underline the importance of forcing data for hydrological modeling of West Africa. Keywords: West Africa; GRACE-derived water storage; ICA; ENSO; IOD

A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

2017-12-01

There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

Alternatives to Crop Insurance for Mitigating Hydrologic Risk in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, J. M.; Griffis, T. J.; Gorski, G.; Wood, J. D.

2015-12-01

Corn and soybean production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin can be limited by either excess or shortage of water, often in the same year within the same watershed. Most producers indemnify themselves against these hazards through the Federal crop insurance program, which is heavily subsidized, thus discouraging expenditures on other forms of risk mitigation. The cost is not trivial, amounting to more than 60 billion USD over the past 15 years. Examination of long-term precipitation and streamflow records at the 8-digit scale suggests that inter-annual hydrologic variability in the region is increasing, particularly in an area stretching from NW IL through much of IA and southern MN. Analysis of crop insurance statistics shows that these same watersheds exhibit the highest frequency of coincident claims for yield losses to both excess water and drought within the same year. An emphasis on development of water management strategies to increase landscape storage and subsequent reuse through supplemental irrigation in this region could reduce the cost of the crop insurance program and stabilize yield. However, we also note that analysis of yield data from USDA-NASS shows that interannual yield variability at the watershed scale is much more muted than the indemnity data suggest, indicating that adverse selection is probably a factor in the crop insurance marketplace. Consequently, we propose that hydrologic mitigation practices may be most cost-effective if they are carefully targeted, using topographic, soil, and meteorological data, in combination with more site-specificity in crop insurance data.

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia C.; Stamos, Christina L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Wright, Michael T.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin; Martin, Peter; Coes, Alissa L.

2015-11-24

This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall inputs, and UKCP09 gridded daily rainfall data has been disaggregated using hourly records to analyse the implications of using realistic sub-daily variability. Furthermore, the development of a comprehensive dataset and computationally efficient means of setting up and running catchment models has allowed for examination of how a robust parameter scheme may be derived. This analysis has been based on collective parameterisation of multiple catchments in contrasting hydrological settings and subject to varied processes. 350 gauged catchments all over the UK have been simulated, and a robust set of parameters is being sought by examining the full range of hydrological processes and calibrating to a highly diverse flow data series. The modelling system will be used to generate flow time series based on historical input data and also downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) forecasts using the UKCP09 Weather Generator. This will allow for analysis of flow frequency and associated future changes, which cannot be determined from the instrumental record or from lumped parameter model outputs calibrated only to historical catchment behaviour. This work will be based on the existing and functional modelling system described following some further improvements to calibration, particularly regarding simulation of groundwater-dominated catchments.

Quantifying hydrological responses of small Mediterranean catchments under climate change projections.

PubMed

Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-02-01

Catchment flow regimes alteration is likely to be a prominent consequence of climate change projections in the Mediterranean. Here we explore the potential effects of climatic change on the flow regime of the Thau and the Chiba catchments which are located in Southern France and Northeastern Tunisia, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model is forced with projections from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) to assess changes and uncertainty in relevant hydrological indicators related to water balance, magnitude, frequency and timing of the flow between a reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2071) periods. Results indicate that both catchments are likely to experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the future. Consequently, runoff and soil water content are projected to decrease whereas potential evapotranspiration is likely to increase in both catchments. Yet uncertain, the projected magnitudes of these changes are higher in the wet period than in the dry period. Analyses of extreme flow show similar trend in both catchments, projecting a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations. Further, significant increase in low flow frequency as a proxy for hydrological droughts is projected for both catchments but with higher uncertainty in the wet period than in the dry period. Although no changes in the average timing of maximum and minimum flow events for different flow durations are projected, substantial uncertainty remains in the hydrological projections. While the results in both catchments show consistent trend of change for most of the hydrologic indicators, the overall degree of alteration on the flow regime of the Chiba catchment is projected to be higher than that of the Thau catchment. The projected magnitudes of alteration as well as their associated uncertainty vary depending on the catchment characteristics and flow seasonality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Including hydrological self-regulating processes in peatland models: Effects on peatmoss drought projections.

PubMed

Nijp, Jelmer J; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M

2017-02-15

The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both processes. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on ecosystem processes related to topsoil water content, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive linearization of phase space. A hydrological case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angarita, Hector; Domínguez, Efraín

2013-04-01

Here is presented a method and its implementation to extract transition operators from hydrological signals with significant algorithmic complexity, i.e. signals with an identifiable deterministic component and a non-periodic and irregular part, being the latter a source of uncertainty for the observer. The method assumes that in a system such as a hydrological system, from the perspective of information theory, signals cannot be known to an arbitrary level of precision due to limited observation or coding capabilities. According to the Shannon-Hartley theorem, at a given sampling frequency -fs' there is a theoretical peak capacity C to observe data from a random signal (i.e. the discharge) transmitted through a noisy channel with a signal to noise ratio -SNR. This imposes a limit on the observer capability to completely reconstruct an observed signal if the sampling frequency -fs' is lower than a given threshold -fs', for which a system signal can be completely recovered for any given SNR. Since most hydrological monitoring systems have low monitoring frequency, the observations may contain less information than required to describe the process dynamics and as a result observed signals exhibit some level of uncertainty if compared with the "true" signal. In the proposed approach, a simple local phase-space model, with locally linearized deterministic and stochastic differential equations, is applied to extract system's state transition operators and to probabilistically characterize the signal uncertainty. In order to determine optimality of the local operators, three main elements are considered: i: System state dimensionality, ii. Sampling frequency and, iii. Parameterization window length. Two examples are shown and discussed to illustrate the method. First, the evaluation of the feasibility of real-time forecasting models for levels and fow rates, from hourly to 14-day lead times. The results of this application demonstrate the operational feasibility for simple predictive models for most of the evaluated cases. The second application is the definition of a stage-discharge decoding method based on the dynamics of the water level observed signal. The results indicate that the method leads to a reduction of hysteresis in the decoded flow, which however is not satisfactory as a quadratic bias emerged in the decoded values and needs explanation. Both examples allow to conclude about the optimal sampling frequency of studied variables.

Multi-time-scale hydroclimate dynamics of a regional watershed and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation: Application to the Seine river catchment, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.; Dieppois, B.; Hannah, D. M.; Lavers, D. A.; Fossa, M.; Laignel, B.; Debret, M.

2017-03-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating correlation between large and local scales, empirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: (i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and (ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the links between large and local scales were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach, which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing monthly regional hydrometeorological processes (predictand: precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector). This approach basically consisted in three steps: 1 - decomposing large-scale climate and hydrological signals (SLP field, precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, 2 - generating a statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3 - summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either precipitation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with alternating flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter/spring 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. In accordance with previous studies, the wavelet components detected in SLP, precipitation and streamflow on interannual to interdecadal time-scales could be interpreted in terms of influence of the Gulf-Stream oceanic front on atmospheric circulation.

Wetland Hydrologic Connectivity to Downstream Waters: A Classification Approach and National Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leibowitz, S. G.; Hill, R. A.; Weber, M.; Jones, C., Jr.; Rains, M. C.; Creed, I. F.; Christensen, J.

2017-12-01

Connectivity has become a major focus of hydrological and ecological studies. Connectivity enhances fluxes among landscape features, whereas isolation eliminates or reduces such flows. Thus connectivity can be an important characteristic controlling ecosystem services. Hydrologic connectivity is particularly significant, since chemical and biological flows are often associated with water movement. Wetlands have many important functions, and the degree to which they are hydrologically connected influences the effect they have on downstream waters. Wetlands with high connectivity can serve as sources (e.g., net exporters of dissolved organic carbon), while those with low connectivity can function as sinks (e.g., net importers of suspended sediments). We developed a system to classify wetlands based on type, magnitude, and frequency of hydrologic connectivity with downstream waters. We determined type (riparian, non-riparian surface, and non-riparian subsurface) by considering soil and bedrock permeability. For magnitude, we developed indices to represent travel time based on Manning's kinematic and Darcy's equations. We used soil drainage class as an indicator of frequency. We also included an index that assesses relative level of anthropogenic impacts to connectivity (e.g., presence of canals and ditches and impervious surfaces). The classification system was designed to be applied at various spatial scales using available data. The system was applied to 4.7 million wetlands in the conterminous United States, using the National Land Cover Dataset and other nationally available geospatial data, and the resulting maps were assessed for patterns in wetland connectivity. While wetland connectivity was dominated by fast, frequent riparian connections nationally, distributions of connectivity were characteristic for each region. Consideration of these distributions of connectivity should promote better management of watershed functions such as flood control and water quality improvement.

Multi-frequency electrical and electromagnetic measurements for imaging water flows: application to catchment and landslide hydrology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajaunie, Myriam; Sailhac, Pascal; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Larnier, Hugo; Gance, Julien; Gautier, Stéphanie; Pierret, Marie-Claire

2017-04-01

Imaging water flows in mountainous watersheds is a difficult task, not only because of the topography and the dimensions of the existing structures, but also because the soils and rocks consist of unsaturated porous and heterogeneous fractured media, leading to multi-scale water-flow properties. In addition, these properties can change in time, in relation to temperature, rainfall and biological forcings. Electrical properties are relevant proxies of the subsurface hydrological properties. In order to image water flows, we consider measurements of the complex electrical conductivity (conduction and polarization/chargeability effects) which translate into a frequency dependance of the conductivity at the sample scale. We further discuss the combined use of electromagnetic (CS-AMT) and electric (DC and IP) measurements at the slope scale. The solving of processing, calibration and modelling issues allows the estimation of hydrological properties (i.e. permeability, soil humidity) giving master constraints for slope-scale hydrological modelling. We illustrate the application of these methods for the identification of the hydrological role of weathered structures of granitic catchments (e.g. Strengbach, Vosges mountains, ca. 80 km from Strasbourg, North East France) where new AMT processing has been developed in the AMT dead band to improve DC electrical imaging. We also illustrate the use of these methods to document the seasonal regime of the groundwater of the Lodève landslide (unstable slope located at Pégairolles, foot of the Cévennes mountain, ca. 80 km from Montpellier, South of France) where a new detailed time-lapse DC and IP setup (surface and borehole) is being tested. The works are supported by the research projects HYDROCRISZTO and HYDROSLIDE, and the large infrastructure project CRITEX.

Hydrologic and biogeochemical impacts of a period of elevated hurricane activity on the Pamlico Sound system, NC: The challenges for nutrient and habitat management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paerl, H. W.; Peierls, B. L.; Hall, N. S.; Rossignol, K. L.; Wetz, M. S.

2008-12-01

Since the mid-1990's, US Coastal regions have experienced a sudden rise in hurricane and tropical storm landfalls; this elevated frequency is expected to continue for the next several decades. The North Carolina coast has been impacted by at least eight hurricanes and six tropical storms during this time. Each of these storms exhibited unique hydrologic and nutrient loading scenarios. This variability represents a formidable challenge to management of eutrophication and fisheries habitats of the Pamlico Sound system, the US's largest lagoonal ecosystem and a key fisheries resource. Different rainfall amounts among hurricanes led to variable freshwater and nutrient discharge and hence variable nutrient, organic matter, and sediment enrichment. These enrichments differentially affected physical-chemical properties (salinity, water residence time, transparency, stratification, dissolved oxygen), phytoplankton community production and composition. The contrasting effects were accompanied by biogeochemical perturbations (hypoxia, enhanced nutrient cycling), habitat alterations, and food web disturbances. Floodwaters from the two largest hurricanes, Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999), exerted multi-month to multi-annual hydrologic and biogeochemical effects. In contrast, relatively low rainfall coastal hurricanes like Isabel (2003) and Ophelia (2005) caused strong vertical mixing and storm surges, but relatively minor hydrologic, nutrient, and biotic impacts. Both hydrologic and wind forcing are important drivers and must be integrated with nutrient loading in assessing short- and long- term ecological impacts of these storms. These climatic forcings cannot be managed but must be considered when developing water quality and habitat management strategies for these and other large estuarine ecosystems faced with increasing frequencies and intensities of hurricanes.

Going with the flow: Hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, Emmanuèle; Dépret, Thomas; Costard, François; Virmoux, Clément; Fedorov, Alexander; Grancher, Delphine; Konstantinov, Pavel; Brunstein, Daniel

2018-02-01

Recent observations indicate that over the last decades, climate change has increasingly influenced the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climatic and hydrologic events. The main aim of this study is to determine the hydrologic response, especially the flood evolution, of the Lena River in Eastern Siberia to ongoing climate change. Draining the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, the Lena River is impacted by global warming, which is particularly pronounced in periglacial areas characterized by deep and continuous permafrost. We document the hydrologic variability of the Middle Lena River, first by characterizing trend and stationarity of monthly discharges. Second, we analyze on the basis of the peak over threshold method (POT) the temporal evolution of intensity and duration of three discharge classes: bar-full discharge, bank-full discharge and large floods. Finally, we also determined the dates of the flood beginning and of the flood peak. Data on mean monthly discharge and flood peaks are available since 1936 and daily discharges since 1954. Our results provide evidence for a net hydrologic change with an increase in the intensity and duration of floods in the two decades ending in 2012. The frequency of high floods is unprecedented, and small floods no longer occur. The tail of the temporal distribution of the flood peak is also changing. More frequent early floods are occurring in spring with secondary flood peaks in summer, the latest probably represents the most striking change. Furthermore, the changes have been accelerating since 2004. Finally, two islands were instrumented (2008-2012) in order to study the flooding dynamics with a better precision.

State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: Effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-12-01

This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model (Rakovec et al., 2012a). The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km2), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. The uncertain precipitation model forcings were obtained using a time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulation method (Rakovec et al., 2012b), which is further made conditional on preceding simulations. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty. Rakovec, O., Weerts, A. H., Hazenberg, P., Torfs, P. J. J. F., and Uijlenhoet, R.: State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 3961-3999, doi:10.5194/hessd-9-3961-2012, 2012a. Rakovec, O., Hazenberg, P., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Weerts, A. H., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of temporal correlation structure, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 3087-3127, doi:10.5194/hessd-9-3087-2012, 2012b.

Detection of dominant runoff generation processes in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro; Gioia, Andrea; Manfreda, Salvatore

2010-05-01

The investigation on hydrologic similarity represents one of the most exciting challenges faced by hydrologists in the last few years, in order to reduce uncertainty on flood prediction in ungauged basins (e.g., IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - Sivapalan et al., 2003). In perspective, the identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms may provide a strategy for catchment classification and identification hydrologically omogeneous regions. In this context, we exploited the framework of theoretically derived flood probability distributions, in order to interpret the physical behavior of real basins. Recent developments on theoretically derived distributions have highlighted that in a given basin different runoff processes may coexistence and modify or affect the shape of flood distributions. The identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms represents a key signatures of flood distributions providing an insight in hydrologic similarity. Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000) introduced a novel distribution of flood peak annual maxima, the "IF" distribution, which exploited the variable source area concept, coupled with a runoff threshold having scaling properties. More recently, Gioia et al (2008) introduced the Two Component-IF (TCIF) distribution, generalizing the IF distribution, based on two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. Indeed, ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, often responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered by severe rainfalls exceeding a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, we focused on the application of both models (IF and TCIF) over a considerable number of catchments belonging to different regions of Southern Italy. In particular, we stressed, as a case of strong general interest in the field of statistical hydrology, the role of procedures for parameters estimation and techniques for model selection in the case of nested distributions. References Gioia, A., V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, M. Fiorentino, Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1295-1307, 2008. Iacobellis, V., and M. Fiorentino (2000), Derived distribution of floods based on the concept of partial area coverage with a climatic appeal, Water Resour. Res., 36(2), 469-482. Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., Liang, X., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O'Connell, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and Zehe, E.: IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(6), 857-880, 2003.

The 'fine structure' of nutrient dynamics in rivers: ten years of study using high-frequency monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Phil; Melland, Alice; Shore, Mairead; Mellander, Per-Erik; Shortle, Ger; Ryan, David; Crockford, Lucy; Macintosh, Katrina; Campbell, Julie; Arnscheidt, Joerg; Cassidy, Rachel

2014-05-01

A complete appraisal of material fluxes in flowing waters is really only possibly with high time resolution data synchronous with measurements of discharge. Defined by Kirchner et al. (2004; Hydrological Processes, 18/7) as the high-frequency wave of the future and with regard to disentangling signal noise from process pattern, this challenge has been met in terms of nutrient flux monitoring by automated bankside analysis. In Ireland over a ten-year period, time-series nutrient data collected on a sub-hourly basis in rivers have been used to distinguish fluxes from different catchment sources and pathways and to provide more certain temporal pictures of flux for the comparative definition of catchment nutrient dynamics. In catchments where nutrient fluxes are particularly high and exhibit a mix of extreme diffuse and point source influences, high time resolution data analysis indicates that there are no satisfactory statistical proxies for seasonal or annual flux predictions that use coarse datasets. Or at least exposes the limits of statistical approaches to catchment scale and hydrological response. This has profound implications for catchment monitoring programmes that rely on modelled relationships. However, using high resolution monitoring for long term assessments of catchment mitigation measures comes with further challenges. Sustaining continuous wet chemistry analysis at river stations is resource intensive in terms of capital, maintenance and quality assurance. Furthermore, big data capture requires investment in data management systems and analysis. These two institutional challenges are magnified when considering the extended time period required to identify the influences of land-based nutrient control measures on water based systems. Separating the 'climate signal' from the 'source signal' in river nutrient flux data is a major analysis challenge; more so when tackled with anything but higher resolution data. Nevertheless, there is scope to lower costs in bankside analysis through technology development, and the scientific advantages of these data are clear and exciting. When integrating its use with policy appraisal, it must be made clear that the advances in river process understanding from high resolution monitoring data capture come as a package with the ability to make more informed decisions through an investment in better information.

Effect of water table dynamics on land surface hydrologic memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Min-Hui; Famiglietti, James S.

2010-11-01

The representation of groundwater dynamics in land surface models has received considerable attention in recent years. Most studies have found that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component because of the additional supply of water to the root zone. However, the effect of groundwater on land surface hydrologic memory (persistence) has not been explored thoroughly. In this study we investigate the effect of water table dynamics on National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model hydrologic simulations in terms of land surface hydrologic memory. Unlike soil water or evapotranspiration, results show that land surface hydrologic memory does not always increase after adding a groundwater component. In regions where the water table level is intermediate, land surface hydrologic memory can even decrease, which occurs when soil moisture and capillary rise from groundwater are not in phase with each other. Further, we explore the hypothesis that in addition to atmospheric forcing, groundwater variations may also play an important role in affecting land surface hydrologic memory. Analyses show that feedbacks of groundwater on land surface hydrologic memory can be positive, negative, or neutral, depending on water table dynamics. In regions where the water table is shallow, the damping process of soil moisture variations by groundwater is not significant, and soil moisture variations are mostly controlled by random noise from atmospheric forcing. In contrast, in regions where the water table is very deep, capillary fluxes from groundwater are small, having limited potential to affect soil moisture variations. Therefore, a positive feedback of groundwater to land surface hydrologic memory is observed in a transition zone between deep and shallow water tables, where capillary fluxes act as a buffer by reducing high-frequency soil moisture variations resulting in longer land surface hydrologic memory.

High-frequency field-deployable isotope analyzer for hydrological applications

Treesearch

Elena S.F. Berman; Manish Gupta; Chris Gabrielli; Tina Garland; Jeffrey J. McDonnell

2009-01-01

A high-frequency, field-deployable liquid water isotope analyzer was developed. The instrument was deployed for 4 contiguous weeks in the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest Long-term Ecological Research site in western Oregon, where it was used for real-time measurement of the isotope ratios of precipitation and stream water during three large storm events. We were able...

High Frequency Variations of Earth Rotation Parameters from GPS and GLONASS Observations

PubMed Central

Wei, Erhu; Jin, Shuanggen; Wan, Lihua; Liu, Wenjie; Yang, Yali; Hu, Zhenghong

2015-01-01

The Earth's rotation undergoes changes with the influence of geophysical factors, such as Earth's surface fluid mass redistribution of the atmosphere, ocean and hydrology. However, variations of Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP) are still not well understood, particularly the short-period variations (e.g., diurnal and semi-diurnal variations) and their causes. In this paper, the hourly time series of Earth Rotation Parameters are estimated using Global Positioning System (GPS), Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS), and combining GPS and GLONASS data collected from nearly 80 sites from 1 November 2012 to 10 April 2014. These new observations with combining different satellite systems can help to decorrelate orbit biases and ERP, which improve estimation of ERP. The high frequency variations of ERP are analyzed using a de-trending method. The maximum of total diurnal and semidiurnal variations are within one milli-arcseconds (mas) in Polar Motion (PM) and 0.5 milli-seconds (ms) in UT1-UTC. The semidiurnal and diurnal variations are mainly related to the ocean tides. Furthermore, the impacts of satellite orbit and time interval used to determinate ERP on the amplitudes of tidal terms are analyzed. We obtain some small terms that are not described in the ocean tide model of the IERS Conventions 2010, which may be caused by the strategies and models we used or the signal noises as well as artifacts. In addition, there are also small differences on the amplitudes between our results and IERS convention. This might be a result of other geophysical excitations, such as the high-frequency variations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and hydrological angular momentum (HAM), which needs more detailed analysis with more geophysical data in the future. PMID:25635416

Rainy Day: A Remote Sensing-Driven Extreme Rainfall Simulation Approach for Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Daniel; Yatheendradas, Soni; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Ayalew, Tibebu; Mantilla, Ricardo; Krajewski, Witold

2015-04-01

Progress on the assessment of rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides has been hampered by the challenge of characterizing the frequency, intensity, and structure of extreme rainfall at the watershed or hillslope scale. Conventional approaches rely on simplifying assumptions and are strongly dependent on the location, the availability of long-term rain gage measurements, and the subjectivity of the analyst. Regional and global-scale rainfall remote sensing products provide an alternative, but are limited by relatively short (~15-year) observational records. To overcome this, we have coupled these remote sensing products with a space-time resampling framework known as stochastic storm transposition (SST). SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by resampling from a catalog of observed storms from a user-defined region, effectively recreating the regional extreme rainfall hydroclimate. This coupling has been codified in Rainy Day, a Python-based platform for quickly generating large numbers of probabilistic extreme rainfall "scenarios" at any point on the globe. Rainy Day is readily compatible with any gridded rainfall dataset. The user can optionally incorporate regional rain gage or weather radar measurements for bias correction using the Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH) framework. Results from Rainy Day using the CMORPH satellite precipitation product are compared with local observations in two examples. The first example is peak discharge estimation in a medium-sized (~4000 square km) watershed in the central United States performed using CUENCAS, a parsimonious physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The second example is rainfall frequency analysis for Saint Lucia, a small volcanic island in the eastern Caribbean that is prone to landslides and flash floods. The distinct rainfall hydroclimates of the two example sites illustrate the flexibility of the approach and its usefulness for hazard analysis in data-poor regions.

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

2018-01-01

Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor <0.56 and R 2>0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18

Characterizing the Frequency and Elevation of Rapid Drainage Events in West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, S.; Christoffersen, P.

2016-12-01

Rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet is critical for the establishment of surface-to-bed hydrologic connections and the subsequent transfer of water from surface to bed. Yet, estimates of the number and spatial distribution of rapidly draining lakes vary widely due to limitations in the temporal frequency of image collection and obscureness by cloud. So far, no study has assessed the impact of these observation biases. In this study, we examine the frequency and elevation of rapidly draining lakes in central West Greenland, from 68°N to 72.6°N, and we make a robust statistical analysis to estimate more accurately the likelihood of lakes draining rapidly. Using MODIS imagery and a fully automated lake detection method, we map more than 500 supraglacial lakes per year over a 63000 km2 study area from 2000-2015. Through testing four different definitions of rapidly draining lakes from previously published studies, we find that the number of rapidly draining lakes varies from 3% to 38%. Logistic regression between rapid drainage events and image sampling frequency demonstrates that the number of rapid drainage events is strongly dependent on cloud-free observation percentage. We then develop three new drainage criteria and apply an observation bias correction that suggests a true rapid drainage probability between 36% and 45%, considerably higher than previous studies without bias assessment have reported. We find rapid-draining lakes are on average larger and disappear earlier than slow-draining lakes, and we also observe no elevation differences for the lakes detected as rapidly draining. We conclude a) that methodological problems in rapid drainage research caused by observation bias and varying detection methods have obscured large-scale rapid drainage characteristics and b) that the lack of evidence for an elevation limit on rapid drainage suggests surface-to-bed hydrologic connections may continue to propagate inland as climate warms.

Monitoring of fluvial transport in small upland catchments - methods and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janicki, Grzegorz; Rodzik, Jan; Chabudziński, Łukasz; Franczak, Łukasz; Siłuch, Marcin; Stępniewski, Krzysztof; Dyer, Jamie L.; Kołodziej, Grzegorz; Maciejewska, Ewa

2014-06-01

In April 2011 a study was initiated, financed from resources of the Polish National Science Centre, entitled: ‘Rainstorm prediction and mathematic modelling of their environmental and social-economical effects’ (No. NN/306571640). The study, implemented by a Polish-American team, covers meteorological research, including: (1) monitoring of single cell storms developing in various synoptic situations, (2) detection of their movement courses, and (3) estimation of parameters of their rain field. Empirical studies, including hydrological and geomorphological measurements, are conducted in objects researched thoroughly in physiographic terms (experimental catchments) in the Lublin region (SE Poland), distinguished by high frequency of occurrence of the events described. For comparative purposes, studies are also carried out on selected model areas in the lower course of the Mississippi River valley (USA), in a region with high frequency of summer rainstorms. For detailed studies on sediment transport processes during rainstorm events, catchments of low hydrological rank and their sub-catchments in a cascade system were selected. For the basic, relatively uniform geomorpho logical units distinguished this way, erosion and deposition balance of material transported was determined. The aim of work was to determine influence of weather condition on fluvial transport rate in small catchment with low hydrological order

Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

2012-12-01

It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

Nonstationarity of daily rainfall annual maxima in Puglia (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Totaro, Vincenzo; Gioia, Andrea; Iacobellis, Vito

2017-04-01

Extreme flood events occurring in the last decades, due to climatic conditions in rapid evolution and/or changes in land cover, has lead the scientific community to develop and improve probabilistic techniques in order to take into account these effects, as also requested by the EU Floods Directive 2007/60. In the recent literature are becoming more popular studies that investigate the nonstationarity of the variables usually treated in hydrology through the analysis of their trend behavior. In this context it is also useful to assess the impact that the climate and /or land cover modifications have on the performances of the probabilistic stationary models used to predict hydrological variables such as rainfall and flood peaks. Among several proposed approaches, we use the redefined concept of return period and risk by considering the variability over time of the position parameter of the GEV distribution, with the subsequent discussion about the implications of analytical and technical characters. The analysis was carried out on the time series of annual maximum of daily precipitation available for a broad number of rainfall gauged stations in Puglia (Southern Italy). The investigation, conducted at the regional scale, leads to the identification of areas with different significativity of the statistical tests usually performed in order to assess nonstationarity. The evaluated change of return period leads to considerations useful to redesign methods for regional analysis of flood frequency.

An Analysis of the Hydrology of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez, F.; Dracup, J. A.

2002-12-01

Stretching almost 2,000 miles from Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico, the Rio Grande (known as the Rio Bravo in Mexico) is very important socially, economically and politically for both Mexico and the U.S. In recent years, the longest drought on record has made water in the Rio Grande Basin scarce. In 2001, for the first time in recorded history, the Rio Grande failed to reach all the way to the Gulf of Mexico -- it stopped 500 feet from the shore. In this study, the authors first assess the relative magnitude and frequency of drought events in the Basin. Using GIS, a spatial analysis of the unimpaired flows and precipitation time series of the Basin is performed. This assessment will provide the basis for a basin simulation model. The authors then perform an extensive analysis of the effects of the El Ni¤o - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the hydrology of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin. It is anticipated that the results of this research will provide information to water managers that will improve the effectiveness of water resources management policies for the Basin. This research is founded by the NSF fund SAHRA (Science and Technology Center to study and promote the "Sustainability of Water Resources in Semi-Arid Regions" at the University of Arizona).

Human-flood interactions in Rome over the past 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Saccà, Smeralda; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Ciullo, Alessio; Crisci, Massimiliano

2017-02-01

Throughout history, the socio-economic development of the city of Rome has been intertwined with the magnitude and frequency of flooding events from the Tiber, one of Italy's largest rivers. Ancient Rome mostly developed on the hills, while the Tiber's floodplain was mainly exploited for agricultural purposes. A few small communities did settle in the riparian areas of the Tiber, but they had a relatively peaceful relationship with the frequent occurrence of flooding events. Instead, numerous people live nowadays in modern districts in the Tiber's floodplain, unaware of their exposure to potentially catastrophic flooding. This research work aims to explore the dynamics of changing flood risk between these two opposite pictures of ancient and contemporary Rome. To this end, we carried out a socio-hydrological study by using long time series of hydrological (extreme flood events) and social (human population dynamics) processes, along with information about human interactions with the environment (flood defence structures). The historical analysis showed how human and water systems have been co-evolving over time, while being abruptly altered by the occurrence of an extreme flood event in 1870, just before Rome became the capital of a recently unified Italy. The outcomes of this study were then compared to the results of a socio-hydrological model simulating the dynamics emerging from the mutual shaping of floods and societies.

How can a modular Master Program in Hydrology provide a framework for future education challenges?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, Markus; Lange, Jens

2010-05-01

A new Master program in Hydrology started at the University of Freiburg in 2008 as a continuation of the Diploma program in Hydrology due to the proposed changes according to the Bologna ac-cord. This imposed formation provided a perfect opportunity to develop a new program that is able to meet the challenges of future hydrology students to work in a nonstationary world due to climate and land use change. A modular program with individual three week hydrological courses was es-tablished, which builds on a general bachelor knowledge in natural sciences. Besides broad theory, students are taught in all relevant methods of hydrological field data collection and laboratory analy-sis. Recurrently, practical data analysis is carried out using freeware software tools. Examples in-clude time series analysis, (geo-)statistics and independently programmed water balance models including uncertainty assessments. Students work on data sets of different climatic zones and are made aware of hydrological problem areas around the globe. Hence, graduates know how to collect, analyse and evaluate hydrological information and may prepare their own, independent tools to pre-dict future changes. In addition, the new modular program includes instructors from the industry and public authorities to provide the students a broad perspective of their future profession. Finally, the new program allows directly to teach university students and practicing hydrologists together to provide evolving methods in hydrology to the practitioners and to allow contacts to professional for the university students.

A comparative appraisal of hydrological behavior of SRTM DEM at catchment level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Arabinda; Tiwari, K. N.

2014-11-01

The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data has emerged as a global elevation data in the past one decade because of its free availability, homogeneity and consistent accuracy compared to other global elevation dataset. The present study explores the consistency in hydrological behavior of the SRTM digital elevation model (DEM) with reference to easily available regional 20 m contour interpolated DEM (TOPO DEM). Analysis ranging from simple vertical accuracy assessment to hydrological simulation of the studied Maithon catchment, using empirical USLE model and semidistributed, physical SWAT model, were carried out. Moreover, terrain analysis involving hydrological indices was performed for comparative assessment of the SRTM DEM with respect to TOPO DEM. Results reveal that the vertical accuracy of SRTM DEM (±27.58 m) in the region is less than the specified standard (±16 m). Statistical analysis of hydrological indices such as topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), slope length factor (SLF) and geometry number (GN) shows a significant differences in hydrological properties of the two studied DEMs. Estimation of soil erosion potentials of the catchment and conservation priorities of microwatersheds of the catchment using SRTM DEM and TOPO DEM produce considerably different results. Prediction of soil erosion potential using SRTM DEM is far higher than that obtained using TOPO DEM. Similarly, conservation priorities determined using the two DEMs are found to be agreed for only 34% of microwatersheds of the catchment. ArcSWAT simulation reveals that runoff predictions are less sensitive to selection of the two DEMs as compared to sediment yield prediction. The results obtained in the present study are vital to hydrological analysis as it helps understanding the hydrological behavior of the DEM without being influenced by the model structural as well as parameter uncertainty. It also reemphasized that SRTM DEM can be a valuable dataset for hydrological analysis provided any error/uncertainty therein is being properly evaluated and characterized.

A novel approach to analysing the regimes of temporary streams in relation to their controls on the composition and structure of aquatic biota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallart, F.; Prat, N.; García-Roger, E. M.; Latron, J.; Rieradevall, M.; Llorens, P.; Barberá, G. G.; Brito, D.; De Girolamo, A. M.; Lo Porto, A.; Buffagni, A.; Erba, S.; Neves, R.; Nikolaidis, N. P.; Perrin, J. L.; Querner, E. P.; Quiñonero, J. M.; Tournoud, M. G.; Tzoraki, O.; Skoulikidis, N.; Gómez, R.; Sánchez-Montoya, M. M.; Froebrich, J.

2012-09-01

Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The structure and composition of biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. Therefore, the structural and functional characteristics of aquatic fauna to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach cannot be used without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the transient sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: Hyperrheic, Eurheic, Oligorheic, Arheic, Hyporheic and Edaphic. When the hydrological conditions lead to a change in the aquatic state, the structure and composition of the aquatic community changes according to the new set of available habitats. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations with rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states in the Aquatic States Frequency Graph we developed. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics which describe the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of temporary streams in four aquatic regimes in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is updated from the existing classifications, with stream aquatic regimes defined as Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic. While aquatic regimes describe the long-term overall variability of the hydrological conditions of the river section and have been used for many years by hydrologists and ecologists, aquatic states describe the availability of mesohabitats in given periods that determine the presence of different biotic assemblages. This novel concept links hydrological and ecological conditions in a unique way. All these methods were implemented with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean within the MIRAGE project. Their application was a precondition to assessing the ecological quality of these streams.

Evaluation and hydrological application of satellite-based precipitation datasets in driving hydrological models over the Huifa river basin in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Honglei; Li, Ying; Huang, Yanwei; Li, Yingchen; Hou, Cuicui; Shi, Xiaoliang

2018-07-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates with high spatial and temporal resolution and large areal coverage have provided hydrologists a potential alternative source for hydrological applications since the last few years, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates five satellite-based precipitation datasets, namely, Fengyun, TRMM 3B42, TRMM 3B42RT, CMORPH_BLD and CMORPH_RAW, against gauge observations for streamflow simulation with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) over the Huifa river basin, Northeast China. Results show that, by comparing the statistical indices (MA, M5P, STDE, ME, BIAS and CC) and inter-annual precipitation, it is demonstrated that Fengyun TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH_BLD show better agreement with gauge precipitation data than CMORPH_RAW and TRMM 3B42RT. When the SWAT model for each dataset calibrated and validated individually, satisfactory model performances (defined as: NS > 0.5) are achieved at daily scale for Fengyun, TRMM 3B42 and gauge-driven model, and very good performances (defined as: NS > 0.75) are achieved at monthly scale for Fengyun and gauge-driven model, respectively. The CMORPH_BLD forced daily simulations also yield higher values of NS and R2 than CMORPH_RAW and TRMM 3B42RT at daily and monthly step. From the uncertainty results, variations of P-factor values and frequency distribution curves of NS suggest that the simulation uncertainty increase when operating the Fengyun, 3B42RT, CMORPH_BLD and CMORPH_RAW-driven model with best fitted parameters for rain gauge SWAT model. The results also indicate that the influence of parameter uncertainty on model simulation results may be greater than the effect of input data accuracy. It is noted that uncertainty analysis is necessary to evaluate the hydrological applications of satellite-based precipitation datasets.

Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

2015-04-01

In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach basically consisted in 1- decomposing both signals (SLP field and precipitation or streamflow) using discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis and synthesis, 2- generating one statistical downscaling model per time-scale, 3- summing up all scale-dependent models in order to obtain a final reconstruction of the predictand. The results obtained revealed a significant improvement of the reconstructions for both precipitation and streamflow when using the multiresolution ESD model instead of basic ESD ; in addition, the scale-dependent spatial patterns associated to the model matched quite well those obtained from scale-dependent composite analysis. In particular, the multiresolution ESD model handled very well the significant changes in variance through time observed in either prepciptation or streamflow. For instance, the post-1980 period, which had been characterized by particularly high amplitudes in interannual-to-interdecadal variability associated with flood and extremely low-flow/drought periods (e.g., winter 2001, summer 2003), could not be reconstructed without integrating wavelet multiresolution analysis into the model. Further investigations would be required to address the issue of the stationarity of the large-scale/local-scale relationships and to test the capability of the multiresolution ESD model for interannual-to-interdecadal forecasting. In terms of methodological approach, further investigations may concern a fully comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the modeling to the parameter of the multiresolution approach (different families of scaling and wavelet functions used, number of coefficients/degree of smoothness, etc.).

Web Tools Streamline Climate Preparedness and Resilience Planning and Implementation for Water Resources Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Friedman, D.; Schechter, J.; Foley, P.; Mueller, C.; Baker, B.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.

2016-12-01

Observed and projected impacts of climate change are pronounced on the hydrologic cycle because of the sensitivity of hydroclimatic variables to changes in temperature. Well-documented climate change impacts to the hydrologic cycle include increases in extreme heat conditions, coastal flooding, heavy precipitation, and drought frequency and magnitude, all of which can combine in surprising ways to pose regionally varying threats to public health and safety, ecosystem functions, and the economy. Climate preparedness and resilience activities are therefore necessary for water infrastructure which provides flood risk reduction, navigation, water supply, ecosystem restoration, and hydropower services. Because this water infrastructure entails long lifetimes, up to or beyond 100 years, and significant public investment, accurate and timely information about climate impacts over both the near-and far-term is required to plan and implement climate preparedness and resilience measures. Engineers are natural translators of science into actionable information to support this type of decision-making, because they understand both the important physical processes and the processes, laws, standards, and criteria required for the planning and design of public infrastructure. Though engineers are capable of the data management activities needed to ingest, transform, and prepare climate information for use in these decisions, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has chosen to emphasize analysis of information over data management. In doing so, the USACE is developing and using web tools with visualization capabilities to streamline climate preparedness and resilience planning and implementation while ensuring repeatable analytical results nationally. Examples discussed here include calculation of sea level change, including a comparison of mean sea level and other tidal statistics against scenarios of change; detection of abrupt and slowly varying nonstationarities in observed hydrologic data; and evaluations of projected flow frequency and duration that help to characterize future conditions and facilitate comparisons to observed conditions.

NEON: High Frequency Monitoring Network for Watershed-Scale Processes and Aquatic Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vance, J. M.; Fitzgerald, M.; Parker, S. M.; Roehm, C. L.; Goodman, K. J.; Bohall, C.; Utz, R.

2014-12-01

Networked high frequency hydrologic and water quality measurements needed to investigate physical and biogeochemical processes at the watershed scale and create robust models are limited and lacking standardization. Determining the drivers and mechanisms of ecological changes in aquatic systems in response to natural and anthropogenic pressures is challenging due to the large amounts of terrestrial, aquatic, atmospheric, biological, chemical, and physical data it requires at varied spatiotemporal scales. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a continental-scale infrastructure project designed to provide data to address the impacts of climate change, land-use, and invasive species on ecosystem structure and function. Using a combination of standardized continuous in situ measurements and observational sampling, the NEON Aquatic array will produce over 200 data products across its spatially-distributed field sites for 30 years to facilitate spatiotemporal analysis of the drivers of ecosystem change. Three NEON sites in Alabama were chosen to address linkages between watershed-scale processes and ecosystem changes along an eco-hydrological gradient within the Tombigbee River Basin. The NEON Aquatic design, once deployed, will include continuous measurements of surface water physical, chemical, and biological parameters, groundwater level, temperature and conductivity and local meteorology. Observational sampling will include bathymetry, water chemistry and isotopes, and a suite of organismal sampling from microbes to macroinvertebrates to vertebrates. NEON deployed a buoy to measure the temperature profile of the Black Warrior River from July - November, 2013 to determine the spatiotemporal variability across the water column from a daily to seasonal scale. In July 2014 a series of water quality profiles were performed to assess the contribution of physical and biogeochemical drivers over a diurnal cycle. Additional river transects were performed across our site reach to capture the spatial variability of surface water parameters. Our preliminary data show differing response times to precipitation events and diurnal processes informing our infrastructure designs and sampling protocols aimed at providing data to address the eco-hydrological gradient.

Impact of Plant Functional Types on Coherence Between Precipitation and Soil Moisture: A Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qi; Hao, Yonghong; Stebler, Elaine; Tanaka, Nobuaki; Zou, Chris B.

2017-12-01

Mapping the spatiotemporal patterns of soil moisture within heterogeneous landscapes is important for resource management and for the understanding of hydrological processes. A critical challenge in this mapping is comparing remotely sensed or in situ observations from areas with different vegetation cover but subject to the same precipitation regime. We address this challenge by wavelet analysis of multiyear observations of soil moisture profiles from adjacent areas with contrasting plant functional types (grassland, woodland, and encroached) and precipitation. The analysis reveals the differing soil moisture patterns and dynamics between plant functional types. The coherence at high-frequency periodicities between precipitation and soil moisture generally decreases with depth but this is much more pronounced under woodland compared to grassland. Wavelet analysis provides new insights on soil moisture dynamics across plant functional types and is useful for assessing differences and similarities in landscapes with heterogeneous vegetation cover.

Student-Centered Modules to Support Active Learning in Hydrology: Development Experiences and Users' Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Habib, E. H.; Deshotel, M.; Merck, M. F.; Lall, U.; Farnham, D. J.

2016-12-01

Traditional approaches to undergraduate hydrology and water resource education are textbook based, adopt unit processes and rely on idealized examples of specific applications, rather than examining the contextual relations in the processes and the dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. The overarching goal of this project is to address the needed paradigm shift in undergraduate education of engineering hydrology and water resources education to reflect parallel advances in hydrologic research and technology, mainly in the areas of new observational settings, data and modeling resources and web-based technologies. This study presents efforts to develop a set of learning modules that are case-based, data and simulation driven and delivered via a web user interface. The modules are based on real-world case studies from three regional hydrologic settings: Coastal Louisiana, Utah Rocky Mountains and Florida Everglades. These three systems provide unique learning opportunities on topics such as: regional-scale budget analysis, hydrologic effects of human and natural changes, flashflood protection, climate-hydrology teleconnections and water resource management scenarios. The technical design and contents of the modules aim to support students' ability for transforming their learning outcomes and skills to hydrologic systems other than those used by the specific activity. To promote active learning, the modules take students through a set of highly engaging learning activities that are based on analysis of hydrologic data and model simulations. The modules include user support in the form of feedback and self-assessment mechanisms that are integrated within the online modules. Module effectiveness is assessed through an improvement-focused evaluation model using a mixed-method research approach guiding collection and analysis of evaluation data. Both qualitative and quantitative data are collected through student learning data, product analysis, and staff interviews. The presentation shares with the audience lessons learned from the development and implementation of the modules, students' feedback, guidelines on design and content attributes that support active learning in hydrology, and challenges encountered during the class implementation and evaluation of the modules.

Using the SWAT model to improve process descriptions and define hydrologic partitioning in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shope, C. L.; Maharjan, G. R.; Tenhunen, J.; Seo, B.; Kim, K.; Riley, J.; Arnhold, S.; Koellner, T.; Ok, Y. S.; Peiffer, S.; Kim, B.; Park, J.-H.; Huwe, B.

2014-02-01

Watershed-scale modeling can be a valuable tool to aid in quantification of water quality and yield; however, several challenges remain. In many watersheds, it is difficult to adequately quantify hydrologic partitioning. Data scarcity is prevalent, accuracy of spatially distributed meteorology is difficult to quantify, forest encroachment and land use issues are common, and surface water and groundwater abstractions substantially modify watershed-based processes. Our objective is to assess the capability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to capture event-based and long-term monsoonal rainfall-runoff processes in complex mountainous terrain. To accomplish this, we developed a unique quality-control, gap-filling algorithm for interpolation of high-frequency meteorological data. We used a novel multi-location, multi-optimization calibration technique to improve estimations of catchment-wide hydrologic partitioning. The interdisciplinary model was calibrated to a unique combination of statistical, hydrologic, and plant growth metrics. Our results indicate scale-dependent sensitivity of hydrologic partitioning and substantial influence of engineered features. The addition of hydrologic and plant growth objective functions identified the importance of culverts in catchment-wide flow distribution. While this study shows the challenges of applying the SWAT model to complex terrain and extreme environments; by incorporating anthropogenic features into modeling scenarios, we can enhance our understanding of the hydroecological impact.

Sensitivity of chemical weathering and dissolved carbon dynamics to hydrological conditions in a typical karst river

PubMed Central

Zhong, Jun; Li, Si-liang; Tao, Faxiang; Yue, Fujun; Liu, Cong-Qiang

2017-01-01

To better understand the mechanisms that hydrological conditions control chemical weathering and carbon dynamics in the large rivers, we investigated hydrochemistry and carbon isotopic compositions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) based on high-frequency sampling in the Wujiang River draining the carbonate area in southwestern China. Concentrations of major dissolved solute do not strictly follow the dilution process with increasing discharge, and biogeochemical processes lead to variability in the concentration-discharge relationships. Temporal variations of dissolved solutes are closely related to weathering characteristics and hydrological conditions in the rainy seasons. The concentrations of dissolved carbon and the carbon isotopic compositions vary with discharge changes, suggesting that hydrological conditions and biogeochemical processes control dissolved carbon dynamics. Biological CO2 discharge and intense carbonate weathering by soil CO2 should be responsible for the carbon variability under various hydrological conditions during the high-flow season. The concentration of DICbio (DIC from biological sources) derived from a mixing model increases with increasing discharge, indicating that DICbio influx is the main driver of the chemostatic behaviors of riverine DIC in this typical karst river. The study highlights the sensitivity of chemical weathering and carbon dynamics to hydrological conditions in the riverine system. PMID:28220859

Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

2016-04-01

Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some climates, and vice versa in others. How important this variability is in supporting a policy decision, depends largely on how a decision thresholds are set. For example in the case of the aridity index, with areas being denoted as arid with an index of 0.6 or above, we show that the variability is primarily of interest in transitional climates, such as the Mediterranean The analysis shows that while both LSM's and GHM's provide useful data, indices derived to support water resources management planning may differ substantially, depending on the model used. The analysis also identifies in which climates improvements to the models are particularly relevant to support the confidence with which decisions can be taken based on derived indicators.

Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.

1990-01-01

Defining the cause and spatial characteristics of floods may be difficult because of limited streamflow and precipitation data. New paleohydrologic techniques that incorporate information from geomorphic, sedimentologic, and botanic studies provide important supplemental information to define homogeneous hydrologic regions. These techniques also help to define the spatial structure of rainstorms and floods and improve regional flood-frequency estimates. The occurrence and the non-occurrence of paleohydrologic evidence of floods, such as flood bars, alluvial fans, and tree scars, provide valuable hydrologic information. The paleohydrologic research to define the spatial characteristics of floods improves the understanding of flood hydrometeorology. This research was used to define the areal extent and contributing drainage area of flash floods in Colorado. Also, paleohydrologic evidence was used to define the spatial boundaries for the Colorado foothills region in terms of the meteorologic cause of flooding and elevation. In general, above 2300 m, peak flows are caused by snowmelt. Below 2300 m, peak flows primarily are caused by rainfall. The foothills region has an upper elevation limit of about 2300 m and a lower elevation limit of about 1500 m. Regional flood-frequency estimates that incorporate the paleohydrologic information indicate that the Big Thompson River flash flood of 1976 had a recurrence interval of approximately 10,000 years. This contrasts markedly with 100 to 300 years determined by using conventional hydrologic analyses. Flood-discharge estimates based on rainfall-runoff methods in the foothills of Colorado result in larger values than those estimated with regional flood-frequency relations, which are based on long-term streamflow data. Preliminary hydrologic and paleohydrologic research indicates that intense rainfall does not occur at higher elevations in other Rocky Mountain states and that the highest elevations for rainfall-producing floods vary by latitude. The study results have implications for floodplain management and design of hydraulic structures in the mountains of Colorado and other Rocky Mountain States. ?? 1990.

Development of efficient and cost-effective distributed hydrological modeling tool MWEasyDHM based on open-source MapWindow GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Xiaohui; Wang, Yuhui; Liao, Weihong; Jiang, Yunzhong; Tian, Yu; Wang, Hao

2011-09-01

Many regions are still threatened with frequent floods and water resource shortage problems in China. Consequently, the task of reproducing and predicting the hydrological process in watersheds is hard and unavoidable for reducing the risks of damage and loss. Thus, it is necessary to develop an efficient and cost-effective hydrological tool in China as many areas should be modeled. Currently, developed hydrological tools such as Mike SHE and ArcSWAT (soil and water assessment tool based on ArcGIS) show significant power in improving the precision of hydrological modeling in China by considering spatial variability both in land cover and in soil type. However, adopting developed commercial tools in such a large developing country comes at a high cost. Commercial modeling tools usually contain large numbers of formulas, complicated data formats, and many preprocessing or postprocessing steps that may make it difficult for the user to carry out simulation, thus lowering the efficiency of the modeling process. Besides, commercial hydrological models usually cannot be modified or improved to be suitable for some special hydrological conditions in China. Some other hydrological models are open source, but integrated into commercial GIS systems. Therefore, by integrating hydrological simulation code EasyDHM, a hydrological simulation tool named MWEasyDHM was developed based on open-source MapWindow GIS, the purpose of which is to establish the first open-source GIS-based distributed hydrological model tool in China by integrating modules of preprocessing, model computation, parameter estimation, result display, and analysis. MWEasyDHM provides users with a friendly manipulating MapWindow GIS interface, selectable multifunctional hydrological processing modules, and, more importantly, an efficient and cost-effective hydrological simulation tool. The general construction of MWEasyDHM consists of four major parts: (1) a general GIS module for hydrological analysis, (2) a preprocessing module for modeling inputs, (3) a model calibration module, and (4) a postprocessing module. The general GIS module for hydrological analysis is developed on the basis of totally open-source GIS software, MapWindow, which contains basic GIS functions. The preprocessing module is made up of three submodules including a DEM-based submodule for hydrological analysis, a submodule for default parameter calculation, and a submodule for the spatial interpolation of meteorological data. The calibration module contains parallel computation, real-time computation, and visualization. The postprocessing module includes model calibration and model results spatial visualization using tabular form and spatial grids. MWEasyDHM makes it possible for efficient modeling and calibration of EasyDHM, and promises further development of cost-effective applications in various watersheds.

Comparison of environmental forcings affecting suspended sediments variability in two macrotidal, highly-turbid estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Schmidt, Sabine; Sottolichio, Aldo

2017-11-01

The relative contribution of environmental forcing frequencies on turbidity variability is, for the first time, quantified at seasonal and multiannual time scales in tidal estuarine systems. With a decade of high-frequency, multi-site turbidity monitoring, the two nearby, macrotidal and highly-turbid Gironde and Loire estuaries (west France) are excellent natural laboratories for this purpose. Singular Spectrum Analyses, combined with Lomb-Scargle periodograms and Wavelet Transforms, were applied to the continuous multiannual turbidity time series. Frequencies of the main environmental factors affecting turbidity were identified: hydrological regime (high versus low river discharges), river flow variability, tidal range, tidal cycles, and turbulence. Their relative influences show similar patterns in both estuaries and depend on the estuarine region (lower or upper estuary) and the time scale (multiannual or seasonal). On the multiannual time scale, the relative contribution of tidal frequencies (tidal cycles and range) to turbidity variability decreases up-estuary from 68% to 47%, while the influence of river flow frequencies increases from 3% to 42%. On the seasonal time scale, the relative influence of forcings frequencies remains almost constant in the lower estuary, dominated by tidal frequencies (60% and 30% for tidal cycles and tidal range, respectively); in the upper reaches, it is variable depending on hydrological regime, even if tidal frequencies are responsible for up 50% of turbidity variance. These quantifications show the potential of combined spectral analyses to compare the behavior of suspended sediment in tidal estuaries throughout the world and to evaluate long-term changes in environmental forcings, especially in a context of global change. The relevance of this approach to compare nearby and overseas systems and to support management strategies is discussed (e.g., selection of effective operation frequencies/regions, prediction of the most affected regions by the implementation of operational management plans).

A two-step sensitivity analysis for hydrological signatures in Jinhua River Basin, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Fu, G.; Chiang, Y. M.; Xu, Y. P.

2016-12-01

Owing to model complexity and large number of parameters, calibration and sensitivity analysis are difficult processes for distributed hydrological models. In this study, a two-step sensitivity analysis approach is proposed for analyzing the hydrological signatures in Jinhua River Basin, East China, using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). A rough sensitivity analysis is firstly conducted to obtain preliminary influential parameters via Analysis of Variance. The number of parameters was greatly reduced from eighteen-three to sixteen. Afterwards, the sixteen parameters are further analyzed based on a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, i.e., Sobol's sensitivity analysis method, to achieve robust sensitivity rankings and parameter contributions. Parallel-Computing is applied to reduce computational burden in variance-based sensitivity analysis. The results reveal that only a few number of model parameters are significantly sensitive, including rain LAI multiplier, lateral conductivity, porosity, field capacity, wilting point of clay loam, understory monthly LAI, understory minimum resistance and root zone depths of croplands. Finally several hydrological signatures are used for investigating the performance of DHSVM. Results show that high value of efficiency criteria didn't indicate excellent performance of hydrological signatures. For most samples from Sobol's sensitivity analysis, water yield was simulated very well. However, lowest and maximum annual daily runoffs were underestimated. Most of seven-day minimum runoffs were overestimated. Nevertheless, good performances of the three signatures above still exist in a number of samples. Analysis of peak flow shows that small and medium floods are simulated perfectly while slight underestimations happen to large floods. The work in this study helps to further multi-objective calibration of DHSVM model and indicates where to improve the reliability and credibility of model simulation.

Sensitivity analysis of a ground-water-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torak, Lynn J.; ,

1991-01-01

A sensitivity analysis was performed on 18 hydrological factors affecting steady-state groundwater flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer near Albany, southwestern Georgia. Computations were based on a calibrated, two-dimensional, finite-element digital model of the stream-aquifer system and the corresponding data inputs. Flow-system sensitivity was analyzed by computing water-level residuals obtained from simulations involving individual changes to each hydrological factor. Hydrological factors to which computed water levels were most sensitive were those that produced the largest change in the sum-of-squares of residuals for the smallest change in factor value. Plots of the sum-of-squares of residuals against multiplier or additive values that effect change in the hydrological factors are used to evaluate the influence of each factor on the simulated flow system. The shapes of these 'sensitivity curves' indicate the importance of each hydrological factor to the flow system. Because the sensitivity analysis can be performed during the preliminary phase of a water-resource investigation, it can be used to identify the types of hydrological data required to accurately characterize the flow system prior to collecting additional data or making management decisions.

Seasonal change of topology and resilience of ecological networks in wetlandscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Kim; Park, Jeryang

2017-04-01

Wetlands distributed in a landscape provide various ecosystem services including habitat for flora and fauna, hydrologic controls, and biogeochemical processes. Hydrologic regime of each wetland at a given landscape varies by hydro-climatic and geological conditions as well as the bathymetry, forming a certain pattern in the wetland area distribution and spatial organization. However, its large-scale pattern also changes over time as this wetland complex is subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing in various temporal scales. Consequently, temporal variation in the spatial structure of wetlands inevitably affects the dispersal ability of species depending on those wetlands as habitat. Here, we numerically show (1) the spatiotemporal variation of wetlandscapes by forcing seasonally changing stochastic rainfall and (2) the corresponding ecological networks which either deterministically or stochastically forming the dispersal ranges. We selected four vernal pool regions with distinct climate conditions in California. The results indicate that the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape by measuring the wetland area frequency distribution changes by seasonal hydro-climatic condition but eventually recovers to the initial state. However, the corresponding ecological networks, which the structure and function change by the change of distances between wetlands, and measured by degree distribution and network efficiency, may not recover to the initial state especially in the regions with high seasonal dryness index. Moreover, we observed that the changes in both the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape and the corresponding ecological networks exhibit hysteresis over seasons. Our analysis indicates that the hydrologic and ecological resilience of a wetlandcape may be low in a dry region with seasonal hydro-climatic forcing. Implications of these results for modelling ecological networks depending on hydrologic systems especially for conservation purposes are discussed.

Understanding the Hydrodynamics of a Coastal Wetland with an Integrated Distributed Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Li, W.; Sun, G.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands linking ocean and terrestrial landscape provide important ecosystem services including flood mitigation, fresh water supply, erosion control, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitats. Wetland hydrology is the major driving force for wetland formation, structure, function, and ecosystem services. The dynamics of wetland hydrology and energy budget are strongly affected by frequent inundation and drying of wetland soil and vegetation due to tide, sea level rise (SLR) and climatic variability (change). However, the quantitative representation of how the energy budget and groundwater variation of coastal wetlands respond to frequent water level fluctuation is limited, especially at regional scales. This study developed a physically based distributed wetland hydrological model by integrating coastal processes and considering the inundation influence on energy budget and ET. Analysis using in situ measurements and satellite data for a coastal wetland in North Carolina confirm that the model sufficiently captures the wetland hydrologic behaviors. The validated model was then applied to examine the wetland hydrodynamics under a 30-year historical climate forcing (1985-2014) for the wetland region. The simulation reveals that 43% of the study area has inundation events, 63% of which has a frequency higher than 50% each year. The canopy evaporation and transpiration decline dramatically when the inundation level exceeds the canopy height. Additionally, inundation causes about 10% increase of the net shortwave radiation. This study also demonstrates that the critical wetland zones highly influenced by the coastal processes spans 300-800 m from the coastline. The model developed in the study offers a new tool for understanding the complex wetland hydrodynamics in response to natural and human-induced disturbances at landscape to regional scales.

A Quantitative Socio-hydrological Characterization of Water Security in Large-Scale Irrigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddiqi, A.; Muhammad, A.; Wescoat, J. L., Jr.

2017-12-01

Large-scale, legacy canal systems, such as the irrigation infrastructure in the Indus Basin in Punjab, Pakistan, have been primarily conceived, constructed, and operated with a techno-centric approach. The emerging socio-hydrological approaches provide a new lens for studying such systems to potentially identify fresh insights for addressing contemporary challenges of water security. In this work, using the partial definition of water security as "the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water", supply reliability is construed as a partial measure of water security in irrigation systems. A set of metrics are used to quantitatively study reliability of surface supply in the canal systems of Punjab, Pakistan using an extensive dataset of 10-daily surface water deliveries over a decade (2007-2016) and of high frequency (10-minute) flow measurements over one year. The reliability quantification is based on comparison of actual deliveries and entitlements, which are a combination of hydrological and social constructs. The socio-hydrological lens highlights critical issues of how flows are measured, monitored, perceived, and experienced from the perspective of operators (government officials) and users (famers). The analysis reveals varying levels of reliability (and by extension security) of supply when data is examined across multiple temporal and spatial scales. The results shed new light on evolution of water security (as partially measured by supply reliability) for surface irrigation in the Punjab province of Pakistan and demonstrate that "information security" (defined as reliable availability of sufficiently detailed data) is vital for enabling water security. It is found that forecasting and management (that are social processes) lead to differences between entitlements and actual deliveries, and there is significant potential to positively affect supply reliability through interventions in the social realm.

Development of cloud-operating platform for detention facility design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tun Lee, Kwan; Hung, Meng-Chiu; Tseng, Wei-Fan; Chan, Yi-Ping

2017-04-01

In the past 20 years, the population of Taiwan has accumulated in urban areas. The land development has changed the hydrological environment and resulted in the increase of surface runoff and shortened the time to peak discharge. The change of runoff characteristics increases the flood risk and reduces resilient ability of the city during flood. Considering that engineering measures may not be easy to implement in populated cities, detention facilities set on building basements have been proposed to compromise the increase of surface runoff resulting from development activities. In this study, a web-based operational platform has been developed to integrate the GIS technologies, hydrological analyses, as well as relevant regulations for the design of detention facilities. The design procedure embedded in the system includes a prior selection of type and size of the detention facility, integrated hydrological analysis for the developing site, and inspection of relevant regulations. After login the platform, designers can access the system database to retrieve road maps, land use coverages, and storm sewer information. Once the type, size, inlet, and outlet of the detention facility are assigned, the system can acquire the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency information from adjacent rain gauges to perform hydrological analyses for the developing site. The increase of the runoff volume due to the development and the reduction of the outflow peak through the construction of the detention facility can be estimated. The outflow peak at the target site is then checked with relevant regulations to confirm the suitability of the detention facility design. The proposed web-based platform can provide a concise layout of the detention facility and the drainageway of the developing site on a graphical interface. The design information can also be delivered directly through a web link to authorities for inspecting to simplify the complex administrative procedures.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

2016-01-01

Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

Evaluation of ecological instream flow using multiple ecological indicators with consideration of hydrological alterations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Xiaohong

2015-10-01

Dam-induced hydrological alterations and related ecological problems have been arousing considerable concern from hydrologists, ecologists, and policy-makers. The East River basin in China is the major provider of water resources for mega-cities within the Pearl River Delta and meets 80% of annual water demand of Hong Kong. In this study, ecodeficit and ecosurplus were analyzed to determine the ecological impact of water impoundments. Also, Do and DHRAM were employed to evaluate the degree of alteration of hydrological regimes, and ERHIs were analyzed to evaluate the influence of hydrological alterations on ecological diversity. Results indicate that: (1) the magnitude and frequency of high flows decrease and those of low flows increase due to the regulation of reservoirs; (2) variations of annual ecosurplus are mainly the result of precipitation changes and the annual ecodeficit is significantly influenced by reservoirs. However, ecodeficit and ecosurplus in other seasons, particularly autumn and winter, are more influenced by reservoir regulation; (3) impacts of reservoirs on hydrological regimes and eco-flow regimes are different from one station to another due to different degrees of influence of reservoirs on hydrological processes at different stations. The longer the distance between a reservoir and a hydrological station is, the weaker the influence the water reservoir has on the hydrological processes; (4) ecodeficit and ecosurplus can be accepted in the evaluation of alterations of hydrological processes at annual and seasonal time scales. Results of Shannon Index indicate decreasing biological diversity after the construction of water reservoirs, implying negative impacts of water reservoirs on biological diversity of a river basin and this should arouse considerable human concerns. This study provides a theoretical background for water resources management with consideration of eco-flow variations due to reservoir regulation in other highly-regulated river basins of the globe.

Handbook for Federal Insurance Administration: Flood-insurance studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, E.J.

1973-01-01

A flood insurance study, made for the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is an analysis of flood inundation frequency for all flood plains within the corporate limits of the community being studied. The study is an application of surveying, hydrology, and hydraulics to determine flood insurance premium rates. Much of the surveying needed can be done by private firms, either by ground methods or photogrammetry. Contracts are needed to let large surveys but purchase orders can be used for small ones. Photogrammetric stereo models, digital regression models, and step-backwater models are needed for most studies. Damage survey data are not involved.

Hydrologic modeling to screen potential environmental management methods for malaria vector control in Niger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gianotti, Rebecca L.; Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2009-08-01

This paper describes the first use of Hydrology-Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a physically based distributed hydrology model, to investigate environmental management methods for malaria vector control in the Sahelian village of Banizoumbou, Niger. The investigation showed that leveling of topographic depressions where temporary breeding habitats form during the rainy season, by altering pool basin microtopography, could reduce the pool persistence time to less than the time needed for establishment of mosquito breeding, approximately 7 days. Undertaking soil surface plowing can also reduce pool persistence time by increasing the infiltration rate through an existing pool basin. Reduction of the pool persistence time to less than the rainfall interstorm period increases the frequency of pool drying events, removing habitat for subadult mosquitoes. Both management approaches could potentially be considered within a given context. This investigation demonstrates that management methods that modify the hydrologic environment have significant potential to contribute to malaria vector control in water-limited, Sahelian Africa.

Hydrology and Geomorphology of Tallgrass Prairie Intermittent Headwater Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, M. D.; Grudzinski, B.

2011-12-01

The arid to semi-arid Great Plains region of the United States covers more than 1 million km2, yet virtually nothing is known about the geomorphology of its intermittent headwater streams. These streams and the perennial rivers they feed support a unique and increasingly endangered assemblage of endemic fish species. While human impacts in the region are not at first glace significant, the reality is that the Great Plains are an intensively managed landscape, with pervasive cattle grazing, channelization, and groundwater over-pumping affecting these systems. These stresses will only increase with potential climate and related land use changes. Few natural remnants of native grassland remain today, limiting opportunities to study the natural dynamics of these systems in contrast to the anthropogenically modified systems. This paper presents a review of the existing geomorphological and hydrological knowledge of Great Plains headwater streams and presents the initial analysis of an 18 year intermittent headwater stream record from the tallgrass Konza Prairie LTER, Kansas. Results suggest that fire frequency and grazing and the resultant riparian vegetation composition strongly influence stream flow dynamics as well as stream geomorphology.

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:29470510

Impacts of the active layer on runoff in an upland permafrost basin, northern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Gao, Tanguang; Zhang, Tingjun; Guo, Hong; Hu, Yuantao; Shang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yulan

2018-01-01

The paucity of studies on permafrost runoff generation processes, especially in mountain permafrost, constrains the understanding of permafrost hydrology and prediction of hydrological responses to permafrost degradation. This study investigated runoff generation processes, in addition to the contribution of summer thaw depth, soil temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation to streamflow in a small upland permafrost basin in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicated that the thawing period and the duration of the zero-curtain were longer in permafrost of the northern Tibetan Plateau than in the Arctic. Limited snowmelt delayed the initiation of surface runoff in the peat permafrost in the study area. The runoff displayed intermittent generation, with the duration of most runoff events lasting less than 24 h. Precipitation without runoff generation was generally correlated with lower soil moisture conditions. Combined analysis suggested runoff generation in this region was controlled by soil temperature, thaw depth, precipitation frequency and amount, and antecedent soil moisture. This study serves as an important baseline to evaluate future environmental changes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana based on data through 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana based on data through 1983. The State was divided into eight regions based on hydrologic conditions, and separate multiple regression equations were developed for each region. These equations relate annual flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and are applicable only to natural flow streams. In three of the regions, equations also were developed relating flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1% ranged from 39% to 87%. Techniques are described for estimating annual flood magnitude and flood frequency information at ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites on the same stream. Included are curves relating flood frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood magnitudes in Montana are compared with estimated 1 %-chance flood magnitudes and with maximum known floods in the United States. Values of flood magnitudes for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are 375 stations in Montana and 28 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (Author 's abstract)

Exploring the Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Hydrological Response of Small Czech Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Ludek; Weyskrabova, Lenka; Müller, Miloslav; Kozant, Petr

2017-04-01

The short-term rainfall temporal distribution is known to have a significant effect on the small watersheds' hydrological response. In Czech Republic there are limited publicly available data on rainfall patterns of short-term precipitation. On one side there are catalogues of very short-term synthetic rainfalls used in urban drainage planning and on the other side hourly distribution of daily totals of rainfalls with long return period for larger catchments analyses. This contribution introduces the preliminary outcomes of a running three years' project, which should bridge this gap and provide such data and methodology to the community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. Six generalized 6-hours hyetographs with 1 minute resolution were derived from 10 years of radar and gauging stations data. These hyetographs are accompanied with information concerning the region of occurrence as well as their frequency related to the rainfall amount. In the next step these hyetographs are used in a complex sensitivity analysis focused on a rainfall-runoff response of small watersheds. This analysis takes into account the uncertainty related to type of the hydrological model, watershed characteristics and main model routines parameterization. Five models with different methods and structure are considered and each model is applied on 5 characteristic watersheds selected from a classification of 7700 small Czech watersheds. For each combination of model and watershed 30, rainfall scenarios were simulated and other scenarios will be used to address the parameters uncertainty. In the last step the variability of outputs will be assessed in the context of economic impacts on design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research is supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, rainfall data were provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

Urban-Related Environmental Variables and Their Relation with Patterns in Biological Community Structure in the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zuellig, Robert E.; Bruce, James F.; Evans, Erin E.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2007-01-01

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, began a study to evaluate the influence of urbanization on stream ecosystems. To accomplish this task, invertebrate, fish, stream discharge, habitat, water-chemistry, and land-use data were collected from 13 sites in the Fountain Creek basin from 2003 to 2005. The Hydrologic Index Tool was used to calculate hydrologic indices known to be related to urbanization. Response of stream hydrology to urbanization was evident among hydrologic variables that described stormflow. These indices included one measurement of high-flow magnitude, two measurements of high-flow frequency, and one measurement of stream flashiness. Habitat and selected nonstormflow water chemistry were characterized at each site. Land-use data were converted to estimates of impervious surface cover and used as the measure of urbanization annually. Correlation analysis (Spearman?s rho) was used to identify a suite of nonredundant streamflow, habitat, and water-chemistry variables that were strongly associated (rho > 0.6) with impervious surface cover but not strongly related to elevation (rho < 0.60). An exploratory multivariate analysis (BIO-ENV, PRIMER ver 6.1, Plymouth, UK) was used to create subsets of eight urban-related environmental variables that described patterns in biological community structure. The strongest and most parsimonious subset of variables describing patterns in invertebrate community structure included high flood pulse count, lower bank capacity, and nutrients. Several other combinations of environmental variables resulted in competing subsets, but these subsets always included the three variables found in the most parsimonious list. This study found that patterns in invertebrate community structure from 2003 to 2005 in the Fountain Creek basin were associated with a variety of environmental characteristics influenced by urbanization. These patterns were explained by a combination of hydrologic, habitat, and water-chemistry variables. Fish community structure showed weaker links between urban-related environmental variables and biological patterns. A conceptual model was developed that showed the influence of urban-related environmental variables and their relation to fish and invertebrate assemblages. This model should prove helpful in guiding future studies on the impacts of urbanization on aquatic systems. Long-term monitoring efforts may be needed in other drainages along the Front Range of Colorado to link urban-related variables to aquatic communities in transition zone streams.

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The established precipitation-ETo covariations are used to inform the scenario construction process. Additionally, the back-tracking of extreme flows from driving scenarios allows for a diagnosis of the physical responses to climate change scenarios. The method is demonstrated through the application of scenarios from 10 Regional Climate Models,21 Global Climate Models and selected catchments in central Belgium. Reference Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., & Willems, P. (2014). Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 307-321.

Do dam constructions in a Vietnamese river basin result in change points in hydrologic regime and how reliable are different methods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vu, Tinh Thi; Kiesel, Jens; Guse, Bjoern; Fohrer, Nicola

2017-04-01

The damming of rivers causes one of the most considerable impacts of our society on the riverine environment. More than 50% of the world's streams and rivers are currently impounded by dams before reaching the oceans. The construction of dams is of high importance in developing and emerging countries, i.e. for power generation and water storage. In the Vietnamese Vu Gia - Thu Bon Catchment (10,350 km2), about 23 dams were built during the last decades and store approximately 2,156 billion m3 of water. The water impoundment in 10 dams in upstream regions amounts to 17 % of the annual discharge volume. It is expected that impacts from these dams have altered the natural flow regime. However, up to now it is unclear how the flow regime was altered. For this, it needs to be investigated at what point in time these changes became significant and detectable. Many approaches exist to detect changes in stationary or consistency of hydrological records using statistical analysis of time series for the pre- and post-dam period. The objective of this study is to reliably detect and assess hydrologic shifts occurring in the discharge regime of an anthropogenically influenced river basin, mainly affected by the construction of dams. To achieve this, we applied nine available change-point tests to detect change in mean, variance and median on the daily and annual discharge records at two main gauges of the basin. The tests yield conflicting results: The majority of tests found abrupt changes that coincide with the damming-period, while others did not. To interpret how significant the changes in discharge regime are, and to which different properties of the time series each test responded, we calculated Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHAs) for the time period before and after the detected change points. From the results, we can deduce, that the change point tests are influenced in different levels by different indicator groups (magnitude, duration, frequency, etc) and that within the indicator groups, some indicators are more sensitive than others. For instance, extreme low-flow, especially 7- and, 30-day minima and mean minimum low flow, as well as the variability of monthly flow are highly-sensitive to most detected change points. Our study clearly shows that, the detected change points depend on which test is chosen. For an objective assessment of change points, it is therefore necessary to explain the change points by calculating differences in IHAs. This analysis can be used to assess which change point method reacts to which type of hydrological change and, more importantly, it can be used to rank the change points according to their overall impact on the discharge regime. This leads to an improved evaluation of hydrologic change-points caused by anthropogenic impacts. Our study clearly shows that, the detected change points depend on which test is chosen. For an objective assessment of change points, it is therefore necessary to explain the change points by calculating differences in IHAs. This analysis can be used to assess which change point method reacts to which type of hydrological change and, more importantly, it can be used to rank the change points according to their overall impact on the discharge regime. This leads to an improved evaluation of hydrologic change-points caused by anthropogenic impacts.

A significant nexus: Geographically isolated wetlands influence landscape hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Kaplan, David A.; Cohen, Matthew J.

2014-09-01

Recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings have limited federal protections for geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) except where a "significant nexus" to a navigable water body is demonstrated. Geographic isolation does not imply GIWs are hydrologically disconnected; indeed, wetland-groundwater interactions may yield important controls on regional hydrology. Differences in specific yield (Sy) between uplands and inundated GIWs drive differences in water level responses to precipitation and evapotranspiration, leading to frequent reversals in hydraulic gradients that cause GIWs to act as both groundwater sinks and sources. These reversals are predicted to buffer surficial aquifer dynamics and thus base flow delivery, a process we refer to as landscape hydrologic capacitance. To test this hypothesis, we connected models of soil moisture, upland water table, and wetland stage to simulate hydrology of a low-relief landscape with GIWs, and explored the influences of total wetland area, individual wetland size, climate, and soil texture on water table and base flow variation. Increasing total wetland area and decreasing individual wetland size substantially decreased water table and base flow variation (e.g., reducing base flow standard deviation by as much as 50%). GIWs also decreased the frequency of extremely high and low water tables and base flow deliveries. For the same total wetland area, landscapes with fewer (i.e., larger) wetlands exhibited markedly lower hydrologic capacitance than those with more (i.e., smaller) wetlands, highlighting the importance of small GIWs to regional hydrology. Our results suggest that GIWs buffer dynamics of the surficial aquifer and stream base flow, providing an indirect but significant nexus to the regional hydrologic system.

Historical Causes and Future Projections of Hydrological Drought Change over a Semi-arid Watershed in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Y.; Yuan, X.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

During the past five decades, significant decreasing trends in streamflow records were observed at many hydrological gauges within the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China, leading to an intensified water resource shortage and a rising hydrological drought risk. This phenomenon is generally considered as a consequence of climate changes and human interventions, such as greenhouse gas emissions, regional land use/cover changes, dam and reservoir constructions and direct water withdrawals. There are many studies on the attribution of streamflow decline and hydrological drought change in this region, while a consolidated conclusion is missing.In this study, we focus on historical and future hydrological drought characteristics over a semi-arid watershed located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. Daily climate simulations from several IPCC CMIP5 models were collected to drive a newly developed eco-hydrological model CLM-GBHM with detailed description of river network and sub-basin topological relationship, to simulate streamflow series under different forcings and scenarios. The standard streamflow index was calculated and used to figure out the characteristics (e.g., frequency, duration and severity) of both historical and future hydrological droughts. The causes and contributions in terms of natural and anthropogenic influences will be investigated based on an optimal fingerprinting method, and the relative importance of internal variability, model and scenario uncertainties for future projections will also be estimated using a separation method. This study will facilitate the implementation of adaptation strategies for hydrological drought over the semi-arid watershed in a changing environment.

Precipitable Water Variability Using SSM/I and GOES VAS Pathfinder Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerner, Jeffrey A.; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Kidder, Stanley Q.

1996-01-01

Determining moisture variability for all weather scenes is critical to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and global climate changes. Remote sensing from geostationary satellites provides the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions necessary for global change studies. Due to antenna size constraints imposed with the use of microwave radiometers, geostationary satellites have carried instruments passively measuring radiation at infrared wavelengths or shorter. The shortfall of using infrared instruments in moisture studies lies in its inability to sense terrestrial radiation through clouds. Microwave emissions, on the other hand, are mostly unaffected by cloudy atmospheres. Land surface emissivity at microwave frequencies exhibit both high temporal and spatial variability thus confining moisture retrievals at microwave frequencies to over marine atmospheres (a near uniform cold background). This study intercompares the total column integrated water content Precipitable Water, (PW) as derived from both the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) pathfinder data sets. PW is a bulk parameter often used to quantify moisture variability and is important to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and climate system. This research has been spawned in an effort to combine two different algorithms which together can lead to a more comprehensive quantification of global water vapor. The approach taken here is to intercompare two independent PW retrieval algorithms and to validate the resultant retrievals against an existing data set, namely the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis data.

Improving flash flood frequency analyses by using non-systematic dendrogeomorphic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; María Bodoque, Jose; Garrote, Julio; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania

2017-04-01

Flash floods have a rapid hydrological response in catchments with short lag times, characterized by ''peaky'' hydrographs. The peak flows are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to prevent and mitigate flood damage. As a result, flash floods may result in a high social risk, as shown for instance by the 1997 Biescas disaster in Spain. The analysis and management of flood risk are clearly conditioned by data availability, especially in mountain areas where usually flash-floods occur. Nevertheless, in mountain basins there is often short data series available that are not accurate in terms of statistical significance. In addition, when flow data is ready for use maximum annual values are generally not as reliable as average flow values, since conventional stream gauge stations may not record the extreme floods, leading to gaps in the time series. Dendrogeomorphology has been shown to be especially useful for improving flood frequency analyses in catchments where short flood series limit the use of conventional hydrological methods. This study presents pros and cons of using a given probability distribution function, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to account for non-systematic data provided by dendrogeomorphic techniques, in order to asses flood quantile estimates accuracy. To this end, we have considered a set of locations in Central Spain, where systematic flow available at a gauging site can be extended with non-systematic data obtained from implementation of dendrogeomorphic techniques.

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Using Multi-Optimization Algorithm as Sampling Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.

2015-12-01

For decades, distributed and lumped hydrological models have furthered our understanding of hydrological system. The development of hydrological simulation in large scale and high precision elaborated the spatial descriptions and hydrological behaviors. Meanwhile, the new trend is also followed by the increment of model complexity and number of parameters, which brings new challenges of uncertainty quantification. Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) has been widely used in uncertainty analysis for hydrological models referring to Monte Carlo method coupled with Bayesian estimation. However, the stochastic sampling method of prior parameters adopted by GLUE appears inefficient, especially in high dimensional parameter space. The heuristic optimization algorithms utilizing iterative evolution show better convergence speed and optimality-searching performance. In light of the features of heuristic optimization algorithms, this study adopted genetic algorithm, differential evolution, shuffled complex evolving algorithm to search the parameter space and obtain the parameter sets of large likelihoods. Based on the multi-algorithm sampling, hydrological model uncertainty analysis is conducted by the typical GLUE framework. To demonstrate the superiority of the new method, two hydrological models of different complexity are examined. The results shows the adaptive method tends to be efficient in sampling and effective in uncertainty analysis, providing an alternative path for uncertainty quantilization.

An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

Streamflow characteristics and benthic invertebrate assemblages in streams across the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brasher, Anne M.D.; Konrad, Chris P.; May, Jason T.; Edmiston, C. Scott; Close, Rebecca N.

2010-01-01

Hydrographic characteristics of streamflow, such as high-flow pulses, base flow (background discharge between floods), extreme low flows, and floods, significantly influence aquatic organisms. Streamflow can be described in terms of magnitude, timing, duration, frequency, and variation (hydrologic regime). These characteristics have broad effects on ecosystem productivity, habitat structure, and ultimately on resident fish, invertebrate, and algae communities. Increasing human use of limited water resources has modified hydrologic regimes worldwide. Identifying the most ecologically significant hydrographic characteristics would facilitate the development of water-management strategies.Benthic invertebrates include insects, mollusks (snails and clams), worms, and crustaceans (shrimp) that live on the streambed. Invertebrates play an important role in the food web, consuming other invertebrates and algae and being consumed by fish and birds. Hydrologic alteration associated with land and water use can change the natural hydrologic regime and may affect benthic invertebrate assemblage composition and structure through changes in density of invertebrates or taxa richness (number of different species).This study examined associations between the hydrologic regime and characteristics of benthic invertebrate assemblages across the western United States and developed tools to identify streamflow characteristics that are likely to affect benthic invertebrate assemblages.

Wetland Hydrological Connectivity: A Classification Approach ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Connectivity has become a major focus of hydrological and ecological studies. Connectivity influences fluxes between landscape elements, while isolation reduces flows between elements. Thus connectivity can be an important characteristic controlling ecosystem services. Hydrologic connectivity is particularly significant, since movement of chemical constituents and biota flows are often associated with water flow. While wetlands have many important on-site functions, the degree to which they are connected to other ecosystems is a controlling influence on the effect these waters have on the larger landscape. Specifically, wetlands with high connectivity can serve as sources (e.g., net exporters of dissolved carbon), while those with low connectivity can function as sinks (e.g., net importers of suspended sediments). Here we focus on so-called “geographically isolated wetlands” (GIWs), or wetlands that are completely surrounded by uplands. While these wetlands normally lack surface water connections, they can be hydrologically connected to downstream waters through intermittent surface flow or groundwater. To help quantify connectivity of GIWs with downstream waters, we developed a system to classify GIWs based on type, magnitude, and frequency of hydrologic connectivity. We determine type (overland, shallow groundwater, or deep groundwater connectivity) by considering soil and bedrock permeability. For magnitude, we developed indices to repre

Hydrologic Process-oriented Optimization of Electrical Resistivity Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinnell, A.; Bechtold, M.; Ferre, T. A.; van der Kruk, J.

2010-12-01

Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is commonly used in hydrologic investigations. Advances in joint and coupled hydrogeophysical inversion have enhanced the quantitative use of ERT to construct and condition hydrologic models (i.e. identify hydrologic structure and estimate hydrologic parameters). However the selection of which electrical resistivity data to collect and use is often determined by a combination of data requirements for geophysical analysis, intuition on the part of the hydrogeophysicist and logistical constraints of the laboratory or field site. One of the advantages of coupled hydrogeophysical inversion is the direct link between the hydrologic model and the individual geophysical data used to condition the model. That is, there is no requirement to collect geophysical data suitable for independent geophysical inversion. The geophysical measurements collected can be optimized for estimation of hydrologic model parameters rather than to develop a geophysical model. Using a synthetic model of drip irrigation we evaluate the value of individual resistivity measurements to describe the soil hydraulic properties and then use this information to build a data set optimized for characterizing hydrologic processes. We then compare the information content in the optimized data set with the information content in a data set optimized using a Jacobian sensitivity analysis.

Extreme Hydrological Changes in the Western United States Drive Reductions in Water Supply by Mid Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagan, Brianna; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi; Mei, Rui; Kendall, Donald; Pal, Jeremy

2016-04-01

The Western United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. This study provides an integrated approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. A 10-member ensemble of coupled global climate models is dynamically downscaled forcing a regional and hydrological model resulting in a high-resolution 4-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). While precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity, which are evaluated by using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Standardized Precipitation Index and ratio of daily precipitation to annual precipitation. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation event events significantly increase in intensity and frequency. Return periods change such that extreme events in the future become much more common by mid-century. The largest changes occur in the Colorado River where the daily annual maximum runoff 100-year event, for example, becomes approximately ten times more likely and twice as likely in the other basins. Volumes for annual cumulative maximum runoff increase and in contrast decrease for annual cumulative minimum runoff. Intuitively, increased frequency of years with below historical average runoff put further strain on water supply. However, the escalating likelihood of runoff occurring earlier in the year and in significantly higher amounts poses a substantial flood control risk requiring the release of water from reservoirs, also potentially decreasing water availability. Significant reductions in snowpack and increases in extreme runoff necessitate additional multiyear storage solutions for urban and agricultural regions in the Western United States.

Hydrological regime modifications induced by climate change in Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

The knowledge of river flow regimes has a capital importance for a variety of practical applications, in water resource management, including optimal and sustainable use. Hydrological regime is highly dependent on climatic factors, among which the most important is surely the precipitation, in terms of frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall events. The streamflow frequency regime of river basins are often summarized by flow duration curves (FDCs), that offer a simple and comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability associated with streamflow, and characterize the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Climate change is likely to lead shifts in the hydrological regime, and, consequently, in the FDCs. Staring from this premise, the primary objective of the present study is to explore the effects of potential climate changes on the hydrological regime of some small Mediterranean basins. To this aim it is here used a recent hydrological model, the ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in small catchments. The model has been calibrated and successively validated in a unique small catchment, where it has shown a satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. Thus, this work also represents a first attempt to apply the ModABa to basins different from that used for its preliminary design in order to testing its generality. Different case studies are selected within the Sicily region; the model is first calibrated at the sites and then forced by future climatic scenarios, highlighting the principal differences emerging from the current scenario and future FDCs. The future climate scenarios are generated using a stochastic downscaling technique based on the weather generator, AWE-GEN. This methodology allows for the downscaling of an ensemble of climate model outputs deriving the frequency distribution functions of factors of change for several statistics of temperature and precipitation from outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs). The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of GCMs adopted in the IPCC 5AR, for the future periods of 2046-2065 and 2081-2100.

Long-term, high-frequency water quality monitoring in an agricultural catchment: insights from spectral analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubert, Alice; Kirchner, James; Faucheux, Mikael; Merot, Philippe; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal

2013-04-01

The choice of sampling frequency is a key issue in the design and operation of environmental observatories. The choice of sampling frequency creates a spectral window (or temporal filter) that highlights some timescales and processes, and de-emphasizes others (1). New online measurement technologies can monitor surface water quality almost continuously, allowing the creation of very rich time series. The question of how best to analyze such detailed temporal datasets is an important issue in environmental monitoring. In the present work, we studied water quality data from the AgrHys long-term hydrological observatory (located at Kervidy-Naizin, Western France) sampled at daily and 20-minute time scales. Manual sampling has provided 12 years of daily measurements of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chloride and sulfate (2), and 3 years of daily measurements of about 30 other solutes. In addition, a UV-spectrometry probe (Spectrolyser) provides one year of 20-minute measurements for nitrate and DOC. Spectral analysis of the daily water quality time series reveals that our intensively farmed catchment exhibits universal 1/f scaling (power spectrum slope of -1) for a large number of solutes, confirming and extending the earlier discovery of universal 1/f scaling in the relatively pristine Plynlimon catchment (3). 1/f time series confound conventional methods for assessing the statistical significance of trends. Indeed, conventional methods assume that there is a clear separation of scales between the signal (the trend line) and the noise (the scatter around the line). This is not true for 1/f noise, since it overestimates the occurrence of significant trends. Our results raise the possibility that 1/f scaling is widespread in water quality time series, thus posing fundamental challenges to water quality trend analysis. Power spectra of the 20-minute nitrate and DOC time series show 1/f scaling at frequencies below 1/day, consistent with the longer-term daily measurements. At higher frequencies, however, the spectra steepen to a slope of -2, indicating that at sub-daily time scales the concentration time series become relatively smooth. However, at time scales shorter than 2-3 hours, the spectra flatten to a slope near zero (white noise), reflecting analytical noise in the measurement probe. This result demonstrates that measuring water quality dynamics at high frequencies also requires high measurement precision, because as measurements are taken closer and closer together in time, the real-world differences that must be measured between adjacent measurements become smaller and smaller. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the spectral properties of analytical noise in environmental measurements, to identify frequency ranges where measurements could be dominated by analytical noise instead of real-world signals. 1. Kirchner, J.W., Feng, X., Neal, C., Robson, A.J., 2004. The fine structure of water-quality dynamics: the (high-frequency) wave of the future. Hydrological Processes, 18(7): 1353-1359 2. Aubert, A.H. et al., 2012. The chemical signature of a livestock farming catchment: synthesis from a high-frequency multi-element long term monitoring. HESSD, 9(8): 9715 - 9741 3. Kirchner, J.W. and Neal, C., 2013. Universal fractal scaling in water quality dynamics across the periodic table. Manuscript in review.

GIS-Based System of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Applications for Highway Engineering

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

In this research project, a GIS has been developed to assist in the design of highway drainage facilities by utilizing hydrologic spatial data to calculate the input parameters for standard hydrologic software packages. This GIS reduces the analysis ...

Hydrological drivers of wetland vegetational biodiversity patterns within Everglades National Park, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, J.; Pumo, D.; Azaele, S.; Muneepeerakul, R.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F. R.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2009-12-01

The influence of hydrological dynamics on vegetational biodiversity and structuring of wetland environments is of growing interest as wetlands are modified by human alteration and the increasing threat from climate change. Hydrology has long been considered a driving force in shaping wetland communities as the frequency of inundation along with the duration and depth of flooding are key determinants of wetland structure. We attempt to link hydrological dynamics with vegetational distribution and species richness across Everglades National Park (ENP) using two publicly available datasets. The first, the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN),is a water-surface model which determines the median daily measure of water level across a 400mX400m grid over seven years of measurement. The second is a vegetation map and classification system at the 1:15,000 scale which categorizes vegetation within the Everglades into 79 community types. From these data, we have studied the probabilistic structure of the frequency, duration, and depth of hydroperiods. Preliminary results indicate that the percentage of time a location is inundated is a principal structuring variable with individual communities responding differently. For example, sawgrass appears to be more of a generalist community as it is found across a wide range of time inundated percentages while spike rush has a more restricted distribution and favors wetter environments disproportionately more than predicted at random. Further, the diversity of vegetation communities (e.g. a measure of biodiversity) found across a hydrologic variable does not necessarily match the distribution function for that variable on the landscape. For instance, the number of communities does not differ across the percentage of time inundated. Different measures of vegetation biodiversity such as the local number of community types are also studied at different spatial scales with some characteristics, like the slope of the semi-logarithmic relation between rank and occupancy, found to be robust to scale changes. The ENP offers an expansive natural environment in which to study how vegetational dynamics and community composition are affected by hydrologic variables from the small scale (at the individual community level) to the large (biodiversity measures at differing spatial scales).

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Snake River in Grand Teton National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Nicholas C.; Schmidt, John C.

2007-01-01

Flood magnitudes have decreased throughout the study area as a result of regulation, but these decreases are mitigated downstream from tributaries. Dam operations have not resulted in long-term progressive channel change or the development and abandonment of floodplain deposits. However, channel change is now dependant on the frequency of high-magnitude floods, and the frequency with which the two floodplains are inundated has been reduced.

High frequency longitudinal profiling reveals hydrologic controls on solute sourcing, transport and processing in a karst river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hensley, R. T.; Cohen, M. J.; Spangler, M.; Gooseff, M. N.

2017-12-01

The lower Santa Fe River is a large, karst river of north Florida, fed by numerous artesian springs and also containing multiple sink-rise systems. We performed repeated longitudinal profiles collecting very high frequency measurements of multiple stream parameters including temperature, dissolved oxygen, carbon dioxide, pH, dissolved organic matter, nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and turbidity. This high frequency dataset provided a spatially explicit understanding of solute sources and coupled biogeochemical processing rates along the 25 km study reach. We noted marked changes in river profiles as the river transitioned from low to high flow during the onset of the wet season. The role of lateral inflow from springs as the primary solute source was greatly reduced under high flow conditions. Effects of sink-rise systems, which under low flow conditions allow the majority of flow to bypass several kilometer long sections of the main channel, virtually disappeared under high flow conditions. Impeded light transmittance at high flow reduced primary production and by extension assimilatory nutrient uptake. This study demonstrates how high frequency longitudinal profiling can be used to observe how hydrologic conditions can alter groundwater-surface water interactions and modulate the sourcing, transport and biogeochemical processing of stream solutes.

Conceptual framework and trend analysis of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses, Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley groundwater basin, Nevada, 1966-2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Tracie R.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2018-05-31

This report identifies water-level trends in wells and provides a conceptual framework that explains the hydrologic stresses and factors causing the trends in the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV) groundwater basin, southern Nevada. Water levels in 79 wells were analyzed for trends between 1966 and 2016. The magnitude and duration of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses were analyzed graphically, statistically, and with water-level models.The conceptual framework consists of multiple stress-specific conceptual models to explain water-level responses to the following hydrologic stresses: recharge, evapotranspiration, pumping, nuclear testing, and wellbore equilibration. Dominant hydrologic stresses affecting water-level trends in each well were used to categorize trends as nonstatic, transient, or steady state.The conceptual framework of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses and trend analyses provide a comprehensive understanding of the PMOV basin and vicinity. The trend analysis links water-level fluctuations in wells to hydrologic stresses and potential factors causing the trends. Transient and steady-state trend categorizations can be used to determine the appropriate water-level data for groundwater studies.

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

Variability of floods, droughts and windstorms over the past 500 years in Central Europe based on documentary and instrumental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazdil, Rudolf

2016-04-01

Hydrological and meteorological extremes (HMEs) in Central Europe during the past 500 years can be reconstructed based on instrumental and documentary data. Documentary data about weather and related phenomena represent the basic source of information for historical climatology and hydrology, dealing with reconstruction of past climate and HMEs, their perception and impacts on human society. The paper presents the basic distribution of documentary data on (i) direct descriptions of HMEs and their proxies on the one hand and on (ii) individual and institutional data sources on the other. Several groups of documentary evidence such as narrative written records (annals, chronicles, memoirs), visual daily weather records, official and personal correspondence, special prints, financial and economic records (with particular attention to taxation data), newspapers, pictorial documentation, chronograms, epigraphic data, early instrumental observations, early scientific papers and communications are demonstrated with respect to extraction of information about HMEs, which concerns usually of their occurrence, severity, seasonality, meteorological causes, perception and human impacts. The paper further presents the analysis of 500-year variability of floods, droughts and windstorms on the base of series, created by combination of documentary and instrumental data. Results, advantages and drawbacks of such approach are documented on the examples from the Czech Lands. The analysis of floods concentrates on the River Vltava (Prague) and the River Elbe (Děčín) which show the highest frequency of floods occurring in the 19th century (mainly of winter synoptic type) and in the second half of the 16th century (summer synoptic type). Reported are also the most disastrous floods (August 1501, March and August 1598, February 1655, June 1675, February 1784, March 1845, February 1862, September 1890, August 2002) and the European context of floods in the severe winter 1783/84. Drought fluctuations in the Czech Lands are represented by the chronology of drought frequency on the one hand and by the reconstructed series of drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-Index and PDSI) on the other. Wind extremes are documented on the example of Czech windstorm chronology derived from documentary data (including tornadoes) with an example of "windstorm of the 18th century" (20-21 December 1740). Finally, scientific potential and perspectives of historical-climatological (historical-hydrological) research of HMEs are presented.

Evaluating the role of river-floodplain connectivity in providing beneficial hydrologic services in mountain landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covino, T. P.; Wegener, P.; Weiss, T.; Wohl, E.; Rhoades, C.

2017-12-01

River networks of mountain landscapes tend to be dominated by steep, valley-confined channels that have limited floodplain area and low hydrologic buffering capacity. Interspersed between the narrow segments are wide, low-gradient segments where extensive floodplains, wetlands, and riparian areas can develop. Although they tend to be limited in their frequency relative to the narrow valley segments, the low-gradient, wide portions of mountain channel networks can be particularly important to hydrologic buffering and can be sites of high nutrient retention and ecosystem productivity. Hydrologic buffering along the wide valley segments is dependent on lateral hydrologic connectivity between the river and floodplain, however these connections have been increasingly severed as a result of various land and water management practices. We evaluated the role of river-floodplain connectivity in influencing water, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and nutrient flux in river networks of the Colorado Rockies. We found that disconnected segments with limited floodplain/riparian area had limited buffering capacity, while connected segments exhibited variable source-sink dynamics as a function of flow. Specifically, connected segments were typically a sink for water, DOC, and nutrients during high flows, and subsequently became a source as flows decreased. Shifts in river-floodplain hydrologic connectivity across flows related to higher and more variable aquatic ecosystem metabolism rates along connected relative to disconnected segments. Our data suggest that lateral hydrologic connectivity in wide valleys can enhance hydrologic and biogeochemical buffering, and promote high rates of aquatic ecosystem metabolism. While hydrologic disconnection in one river-floodplain system is unlikely to influence water resources at larger scales, the cumulative effects of widespread disconnection may be substantial. Because intact river-floodplain (i.e., connected) systems provide numerous hydrologic and ecologic benefits, understanding the dynamics and cumulative effects of disconnection is an important step toward improved water resource and ecosystem management.

Factors Influencing the Sahelian Paradox at the Local Watershed Scale: Causal Inference Insights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Gordon, M.; Groenke, A.; Larsen, L.

2017-12-01

While the existence of paradoxical rainfall-runoff and rainfall-groundwater correlations are well established in the West African Sahel, the hydrologic mechanisms involved are poorly understood. In pursuit of mechanistic explanations, we perform a causal inference analysis on hydrologic variables in three watersheds in Benin and Niger. Using an ensemble of techniques, we compute the strength of relationships between observational soil moisture, runoff, precipitation, and temperature data at seasonal and event timescales. Performing analysis over a range of time lags allows dominant time scales to emerge from the relationships between variables. By determining the time scales of hydrologic connectivity over vertical and lateral space, we show differences in the importance of overland and subsurface flow over the course of the rainy season and between watersheds. While previous work on the paradoxical hydrologic behavior in the Sahel focuses on surface processes and infiltration, our results point toward the importance of subsurface flow to rainfall-runoff relationships in these watersheds. The hypotheses generated from our ensemble approach suggest that subsequent explorations of mechanistic hydrologic processes in the region include subsurface flow. Further, this work highlights how an ensemble approach to causal analysis can reveal nuanced relationships between variables even in poorly understood hydrologic systems.

A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Monitoring Land Surface Soil Moisture from Space with in-Situ Sensors Validation: The Huntsville Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Steve Shih-Tseng

1997-01-01

Based on recent advances in microwave remote sensing of soil moisture and in pursuit of research interests in areas of hydrology, soil climatology, and remote sensing, the Center for Hydrology, Soil Climatology, and Remote Sensing (HSCARS) conducted the Huntsville '96 field experiment in Huntsville, Alabama from July 1-14, 1996. We, researchers at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center's MSFC/ES41, are interested in using ground-based microwave sensors, to simulate land surface brightness signatures of those spaceborne sensors that were in operation or to be launched in the near future. The analyses of data collected by the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) and the C-band radiometer, which together contained five frequencies (6.925,10.7,19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz), and with concurrent in-situ collection of surface cover conditions (surface temperature, surface roughness, vegetation, and surface topology) and soil moisture content, would result in a better understanding of the data acquired over land surfaces by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), because these spaceborne sensors contained these five frequencies. This paper described the approach taken and the specific objective to be accomplished in the Huntsville '97 field experiment.

Analysis of hydrological processes across the Northern Eurasia with recently re-developed online informational system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, A. I.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Titov, A. G.

2016-12-01

The volume of georeferenced datasets used for hydrology and climate research is growing immensely due to recent advances in modeling, high performance computers, and sensor networks, as well as initiation of a set of large scale complex global and regional monitoring experiments. To facilitate the management and analysis of these extensive data pools we developed Web-based data management, visualization, and analysis system - RIMS - http://earthatlas.sr.unh.edu/ (Rapid Integrated Mapping and Analysis System) with a focus on hydrological applications. Recently, under collaboration with Russian colleagues from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Russia, we significantly re-designed the RIMS to include the latest Web and GIS technologies in compliance with the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. An upgraded RIMS can be successfully applied to address multiple research problems using an extensive data archive and embedded tools for data computations, visualizations and distributions. We will demonstrate current possibility of the system providing several results of applied data analysis fulfilled for territory of the Northern Eurasia. These results will include the analysis of historical, contemporary and future changes in climate and hydrology based on station and gridded data, investigations of recent extreme hydrological events, their anomalies, causes and potential impacts, and creation and analysis of new data sets through integration of social and geophysical data.

Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

2005-12-01

Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

In situ high-frequency UV-Vis spectrometer probes for investigating runoff processes and end member stability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Michael; Weiler, Markus; Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian

2014-05-01

In recent years, several limitations as to the application of end member mixing analysis with isotope and geochemical tracers have been revealed: unstable end member solutions, inputs varying in space and time, and unrealistic mixing assumptions. In addition, the necessary high-frequency sampling using conventional methods is time and resources consuming, and hence most sampling rates are not suitable for capturing the response times of the majority of observed headwater catchments. However, high-frequency observations are considered fundamental for gaining new insights into hydrological systems. In our study, we have used two portable, in situ, high-frequency UV-Vis spectrometers (spectro::lyser; scan Messtechnik GmbH) to investigate the variability of several signatures in streamflow and end member stability. The spectro::lyser measures TOC, DOC, nitrate and the light absorption spectrum from 220 to 720 nm with 2.5 nm increment. The Weierbach catchment (0.45 km2) in the Attert basin (297 km2) in Luxemburg is a small headwater research catchment (operated by the CRP Gabriel Lippmann), which is completely forested and underlain by schist bedrock. The catchment is equipped with a dense network of hydrological instruments and for this study, the outlet of the Weierbach catchment was equipped with one spectro::lyser, permanently sensing stream water at a 15 minutes time step over several months. Hydrometric and meteorologic data was compared with the high-frequency spectro::lyser time series of TOC, DOC, nitrate and the light absorption spectrum, to get a first insight into the behaviour of the catchment under different environmental conditions. As a preliminary step for a successful end member mixing analysis, the stability of rainfall, soil water, and groundwater was tested with one spectro::lyser, both temporally and spatially. Thereby, we focused on the investigation of changes and patterns of the light absorption spectrum of the different end members and the stream water. Besides using DOC and nitrate for characterizing the end members, our idea is to use the light absorption spectrum as a fingerprint of various constituents of the water. To get a better understanding on how to handle the in situ spectro::lyser, the instrument was compared to conventionally analysed water samples with a special focus on fundamental technical issues: Is there a general difference between in situ and lab measurements and does it make a difference whether the samples are analysed immediately in the field or after days and weeks in the lab and/or again with the spectro::lyser? First results indicate the value of using in situ spectrometers to capture high-frequency variations of hydro-chemistry and end member mixing during runoff events in a small headwater catchment.

Acquisition, Processing, and Analysis of Continuous Multi-Offset GPR Data for Problems in Hydrogeophysics: Is it Worth the Cost? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, J. H.

2009-12-01

Commercial development of multi-channel ground-penetrating radar (GPR) systems has made acquisition of continuous multi-offset (CMO) data more cost effective than ever. However, additional operator training, equipment costs, field and analysis time, and computation requirements necessarily remain substantially higher than conventional fixed offset GPR surveys. The choice to conduct a CMO survey is a target driven optimization problem where in many cases the added value outweighs the additional cost. Drawing examples from surface water, groundwater, snow, and glacier hydrology, I demonstrate a range of information that can be derived from CMO data with particular emphasis on estimating material properties of relevance to hydrological problems. Careful data acquisition is key to accurate property measurements. CMO geometries can be constructed with a single-channel system although with a significant loss of time and personnel efficiency relative to modern multi-channel systems. Using procedures such as common-midpoint stacking and pre-stack velocity filtering, it is possible to substantially improve the signal-to-noise ratio in GPR reflection images. However, the primary advantage of CMO data is dense sampling of a wide aperture of travelpaths through the subsurface. These data provide the basis for applying tomographic imaging techniques. Reflection velocity tomography in the pre-stack migration domain provides a robust approach to constructing accurate and detailed electromagnetic velocity models. These models in turn are used in conjunction with petrophysical models to estimate hydrologic properties such as porosity. Additionally, we can utilize the velocity models in conjunction with analysis of the frequency dependent attenuation to evaluate real and complex dielectric permittivity. The real and complex components of dielectric permittivity may have differing sensitivity to different components of the hydrologic system. Understanding this behavior may lead to improved understanding of relevant lithologic properties such as bulk clay content or fluid chemical composition during biodegradation of hydrocarbon contaminants. In addition to velocity tomography, CMO data enable reflection attenuation difference tomography. While time-lapse attenuation difference tomography using crosswell GPR transmission data is a well established technique for imaging conductive tracers in groundwater systems, it is not common for reflection data. Numerical examples based on a realistic aquifer model show that surface data can provide resolution of conductive tracer zones that is comparable to cross well data, thereby minimizing the need for invasive and expensive boreholes.

On the use of three hydrological models as hypotheses to investigate the behaviour of a small Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz Pérez, Guiomar; Latron, Jérôme; Llorens, Pilar; Gallart, Francesc; Francés, Félix

2017-04-01

Selecting an adequate hydrological model is the first step to carry out a rainfall-runoff modelling exercise. A hydrological model is a hypothesis of catchment functioning, encompassing a description of dominant hydrological processes and predicting how these processes interact to produce the catchment's response to external forcing. Current research lines emphasize the importance of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modelling instead of only using a single model. In line with this philosophy, here different hypotheses were considered and analysed to simulate the nonlinear response of a small Mediterranean catchment and to progress in the analysis of its hydrological behaviour. In particular, three hydrological models were considered representing different potential hypotheses: two lumped models called LU3 and LU4, and one distributed model called TETIS. To determine how well each specific model performed and to assess whether a model was more adequate than another, we raised three complementary tests: one based on the analysis of residual errors series, another based on a sensitivity analysis and the last one based on using multiple evaluation criteria associated to the concept of Pareto frontier. This modelling approach, based on multiple working hypotheses, helped to improve our perceptual model of the catchment behaviour and, furthermore, could be used as a guidance to improve the performance of other environmental models.

Jump-Diffusion models and structural changes for asset forecasting in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tranquille Temgoua, André Guy; Martel, Richard; Chang, Philippe J. J.; Rivera, Alfonso

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on surface water and groundwater are of concern in many regions of the world since water is an essential natural resource. Jump-Diffusion models are generally used in economics and other related fields but not in hydrology. The potential application could be made for hydrologic data series analysis and forecast. The present study uses Jump-Diffusion models by adding structural changes to detect fluctuations in hydrologic processes in relationship with climate change. The model implicitly assumes that modifications in rivers' flowrates can be divided into three categories: (a) normal changes due to irregular precipitation events especially in tropical regions causing major disturbance in hydrologic processes (this component is modelled by a discrete Brownian motion); (b) abnormal, sudden and non-persistent modifications in hydrologic proceedings are handled by Poisson processes; (c) the persistence of hydrologic fluctuations characterized by structural changes in hydrological data related to climate variability. The objective of this paper is to add structural changes in diffusion models with jumps, in order to capture the persistence of hydrologic fluctuations. Indirectly, the idea is to observe if there are structural changes of discharge/recharge over the study area, and to find an efficient and flexible model able of capturing a wide variety of hydrologic processes. Structural changes in hydrological data are estimated using the method of nonlinear discrete filters via Method of Simulated Moments (MSM). An application is given using sensitive parameters such as baseflow index and recession coefficient to capture discharge/recharge. Historical dataset are examined by the Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to detect real time and random perturbations in hydrologic processes. The application of the method allows establishing more accurate hydrologic parameters. The impact of this study is perceptible in forecasting floods and groundwater recession. Keywords: hydrologic processes, Jump-Diffusion models, structural changes, forecast, climate change

30 CFR 784.14 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 784.14 Section 784.14... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis. All water quality analyses performed to meet the... at the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA). For information on the availability of...

30 CFR 784.14 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 784.14 Section 784.14... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis. All water quality analyses performed to meet the... at the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA). For information on the availability of...

30 CFR 780.21 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 780.21 Section 780.21... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis methodology. All water-quality analyses performed to meet... Eastern Technical Service Center, U.S. Department of the Interior, Building 10, Parkway Center, Pittsburgh...

30 CFR 780.21 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 780.21 Section 780.21... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis methodology. All water-quality analyses performed to meet... Eastern Technical Service Center, U.S. Department of the Interior, Building 10, Parkway Center, Pittsburgh...

Terrestrial Hydrological Data from NASA's Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC): Products, Services, and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Mocko, David M.; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce

2010-01-01

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. The North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS and GLDAS, respectively) have been generating a series of land surface states (soil moisture, snow, and temperature) and fluxes (evapotranspiration, radiation, and heat flux) variables. These data, hosted at and available from NASA s Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), include the NLDAS hourly 1/8 degree products and the GLDAS 3-hourly 0.25 and 1.0 degree products. HDISC provides easy access and visualization and analysis capabilities for these products, thus reducing the time and resources spent by scientists on data management and facilitating hydrological research. Users can perform spatial and parameter subsetting, data format transformation, and data analysis operations without needing to first download the data. HDISC is continually being developed as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecasts, and water and energy cycle research.

Classification of California streams using combined deductive and inductive approaches: Setting the foundation for analysis of hydrologic alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pyne, Matthew I.; Carlisle, Daren M.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Stein, Eric D.

2017-01-01

Regional classification of streams is an early step in the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration framework. Many stream classifications are based on an inductive approach using hydrologic data from minimally disturbed basins, but this approach may underrepresent streams from heavily disturbed basins or sparsely gaged arid regions. An alternative is a deductive approach, using watershed climate, land use, and geomorphology to classify streams, but this approach may miss important hydrological characteristics of streams. We classified all stream reaches in California using both approaches. First, we used Bayesian and hierarchical clustering to classify reaches according to watershed characteristics. Streams were clustered into seven classes according to elevation, sedimentary rock, and winter precipitation. Permutation-based analysis of variance and random forest analyses were used to determine which hydrologic variables best separate streams into their respective classes. Stream typology (i.e., the class that a stream reach is assigned to) is shaped mainly by patterns of high and mean flow behavior within the stream's landscape context. Additionally, random forest was used to determine which hydrologic variables best separate minimally disturbed reference streams from non-reference streams in each of the seven classes. In contrast to stream typology, deviation from reference conditions is more difficult to detect and is largely defined by changes in low-flow variables, average daily flow, and duration of flow. Our combined deductive/inductive approach allows us to estimate flow under minimally disturbed conditions based on the deductive analysis and compare to measured flow based on the inductive analysis in order to estimate hydrologic change.

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Donald R.

2001-01-01

This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

SWToolbox: A surface-water tool-box for statistical analysis of streamflow time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiang, Julie E.; Flynn, Kate; Zhai, Tong; Hummel, Paul; Granato, Gregory

2018-03-07

This report is a user guide for the low-flow analysis methods provided with version 1.0 of the Surface Water Toolbox (SWToolbox) computer program. The software combines functionality from two software programs—U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) SWSTAT and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) DFLOW. Both of these programs have been used primarily for computation of critical low-flow statistics. The main analysis methods are the computation of hydrologic frequency statistics such as the 7-day minimum flow that occurs on average only once every 10 years (7Q10), computation of design flows including biologically based flows, and computation of flow-duration curves and duration hydrographs. Other annual, monthly, and seasonal statistics can also be computed. The interface facilitates retrieval of streamflow discharge data from the USGS National Water Information System and outputs text reports for a record of the analysis. Tools for graphing data and screening tests are available to assist the analyst in conducting the analysis.

Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model.

PubMed

Trinh, T; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Ercan, A; Carr, K

2017-05-15

Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effective discharge analysis of ecological processes in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Martin W.; Stanley, Emily H.; Strayer, David L.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Schmidt, John C.

2005-01-01

Discharge is a master variable that controls many processes in stream ecosystems. However, there is uncertainty of which discharges are most important for driving particular ecological processes and thus how flow regime may influence entire stream ecosystems. Here the analytical method of effective discharge from fluvial geomorphology is used to analyze the interaction between frequency and magnitude of discharge events that drive organic matter transport, algal growth, nutrient retention, macroinvertebrate disturbance, and habitat availability. We quantify the ecological effective discharge using a synthesis of previously published studies and modeling from a range of study sites. An analytical expression is then developed for a particular case of ecological effective discharge and is used to explore how effective discharge varies within variable hydrologic regimes. Our results suggest that a range of discharges is important for different ecological processes in an individual stream. Discharges are not equally important; instead, effective discharge values exist that correspond to near modal flows and moderate floods for the variable sets examined. We suggest four types of ecological response to discharge variability: discharge as a transport mechanism, regulator of habitat, process modulator, and disturbance. Effective discharge analysis will perform well when there is a unique, essentially instantaneous relationship between discharge and an ecological process and poorly when effects of discharge are delayed or confounded by legacy effects. Despite some limitations the conceptual and analytical utility of the effective discharge analysis allows exploring general questions about how hydrologic variability influences various ecological processes in streams.

Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis in the Estimates of Common Environmental Effects Affecting GPS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruszczynska, Marta; Rosat, Severine; Klos, Anna; Gruszczynski, Maciej; Bogusz, Janusz

2018-03-01

We described a spatio-temporal analysis of environmental loading models: atmospheric, continental hydrology, and non-tidal ocean changes, based on multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). We extracted the common annual signal for 16 different sections related to climate zones: equatorial, arid, warm, snow, polar and continents. We used the loading models estimated for a set of 229 ITRF2014 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and discussed the amount of variance explained by individual modes, proving that the common annual signal accounts for 16, 24 and 68% of the total variance of non-tidal ocean, atmospheric and hydrological loading models, respectively. Having removed the common environmental MSSA seasonal curve from the corresponding GPS position time series, we found that the residual station-specific annual curve modelled with the least-squares estimation has the amplitude of maximum 2 mm. This means that the environmental loading models underestimate the seasonalities observed by the GPS system. The remaining signal present in the seasonal frequency band arises from the systematic errors which are not of common environmental or geophysical origin. Using common mode error (CME) estimates, we showed that the direct removal of environmental loading models from the GPS series causes an artificial loss in the CME power spectra between 10 and 80 cycles per year. When environmental effect is removed from GPS series with MSSA curves, no influence on the character of spectra of CME estimates was noticed.

Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis in the Estimates of Common Environmental Effects Affecting GPS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruszczynska, Marta; Rosat, Severine; Klos, Anna; Gruszczynski, Maciej; Bogusz, Janusz

2018-05-01

We described a spatio-temporal analysis of environmental loading models: atmospheric, continental hydrology, and non-tidal ocean changes, based on multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). We extracted the common annual signal for 16 different sections related to climate zones: equatorial, arid, warm, snow, polar and continents. We used the loading models estimated for a set of 229 ITRF2014 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and discussed the amount of variance explained by individual modes, proving that the common annual signal accounts for 16, 24 and 68% of the total variance of non-tidal ocean, atmospheric and hydrological loading models, respectively. Having removed the common environmental MSSA seasonal curve from the corresponding GPS position time series, we found that the residual station-specific annual curve modelled with the least-squares estimation has the amplitude of maximum 2 mm. This means that the environmental loading models underestimate the seasonalities observed by the GPS system. The remaining signal present in the seasonal frequency band arises from the systematic errors which are not of common environmental or geophysical origin. Using common mode error (CME) estimates, we showed that the direct removal of environmental loading models from the GPS series causes an artificial loss in the CME power spectra between 10 and 80 cycles per year. When environmental effect is removed from GPS series with MSSA curves, no influence on the character of spectra of CME estimates was noticed.

Peak-discharge frequency and potential extreme peak discharge for natural streams in the Brazos River basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raines, Timothy H.

1998-01-01

The potential extreme peak-discharge curves as related to contributing drainage area were estimated for each of the three hydrologic regions from measured extreme peaks of record at 186 sites with streamflow-gaging stations and from measured extreme peaks at 37 sites without streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Brazos River Basin. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves generally are similar for hydrologic regions 1 and 2, and the curve for region 3 consistently is below the curves for regions 1 and 2, which indicates smaller peak discharges.

Soil moisture sensing via swept frequency based microwave sensors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate measurement of moisture content is a prime requirement in hydrological, geophysical, and biogeochemical research as well as for material characterization, process control, and irrigation efficiency in water limited regions. Within these areas, consideration of the surface area and associate...

Estimating future flood frequency and magnitude in basins affected by glacier wastage.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

We present field measurements of meteorology, hydrology and glaciers and long-term modeled projections of glacier mass balance and : stream flow informed by downscaled climate simulations. The study basins include Valdez Glacier Stream (342 km2 : ), ...

How does modifying a DEM to reflect known hydrology affect subsequent terrain analysis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callow, John Nikolaus; Van Niel, Kimberly P.; Boggs, Guy S.

2007-01-01

SummaryMany digital elevation models (DEMs) have difficulty replicating hydrological patterns in flat landscapes. Efforts to improve DEM performance in replicating known hydrology have included a variety of soft (i.e. algorithm-based approaches) and hard techniques, such as " Stream burning" or "surface reconditioning" (e.g. Agree or ANUDEM). Using a representation of the known stream network, these methods trench or mathematically warp the original DEM to improve how accurately stream position, stream length and catchment boundaries replicate known hydrological conditions. However, these techniques permanently alter the DEM and may affect further analyses (e.g. slope). This paper explores the impact that commonly used hydrological correction methods ( Stream burning, Agree.aml and ANUDEM v4.6.3 and ANUDEM v5.1) have on the overall nature of a DEM, finding that different methods produce non-convergent outcomes for catchment parameters (such as catchment boundaries, stream position and length), and differentially compromise secondary terrain analysis. All hydrological correction methods successfully improved calculation of catchment area, stream position and length as compared to using the DEM without any modification, but they all increased catchment slope. No single method performing best across all categories. Different hydrological correction methods changed elevation and slope in different spatial patterns and magnitudes, compromising the ability to derive catchment parameters and conduct secondary terrain analysis from a single DEM. Modification of a DEM to better reflect known hydrology can be useful, however knowledge of the magnitude and spatial pattern of the changes are required before using a DEM for subsequent analyses.

Inspiring a Broader Socio-Hydrological Negotiation Approach With Interdisciplinary Field-Based Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massuel, S.; Riaux, J.; Molle, F.; Kuper, M.; Ogilvie, A.; Collard, A.-L.; Leduc, C.; Barreteau, O.

2018-04-01

Socio-hydrology advanced the field of hydrology by considering humans and their activities as part of the water cycle, rather than as external drivers. Models are used to infer reproducible trends in human interactions with water resources. However, defining and handling water problems in this way may restrict the scope of such modeling approaches. We propose an interdisciplinary socio-hydrological approach to overcome this limit and complement modeling approaches. It starts from concrete field-based situations, combines disciplinary as well as local knowledge on water-society relationships, with the aim of broadening the hydrocentric analysis and modeling of water systems. The paper argues that an analysis of social dynamics linked to water is highly complementary to traditional hydrological tools but requires a negotiated and contextualized interdisciplinary approach to the representation and analysis of socio-hydro systems. This reflection emerged from experience gained in the field where a water-budget modeling framework failed to adequately incorporate the multiplicity of (nonhydrological) factors that determine the volumes of withdrawals for irrigation. The pathway subsequently explored was to move away from the hydrologic view of the phenomena and, in collaboration with social scientists, to produce a shared conceptualization of a coupled human-water system through a negotiated approach. This approach changed the way hydrological research issues were addressed and limited the number of strong assumptions needed for simplification in modeling. The proposed socio-hydrological approach led to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind local water-related problems and to debates on the interactions between social and political decisions and the dynamics of these problems.

Stochastic Simulation and Forecast of Hydrologic Time Series Based on Probabilistic Chaos Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Ghaith, M.

2017-12-01

Hydrological processes are characterized by many complex features, such as nonlinearity, dynamics and uncertainty. How to quantify and address such complexities and uncertainties has been a challenging task for water engineers and managers for decades. To support robust uncertainty analysis, an innovative approach for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series is developed is this study. Probabilistic Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are established through probabilistic collocation to tackle uncertainties associated with the parameters of traditional hydrological models. The uncertainties are quantified in model outputs as Hermite polynomials with regard to standard normal random variables. Sequentially, multivariate analysis techniques are used to analyze the complex nonlinear relationships between meteorological inputs (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc.) and the coefficients of the Hermite polynomials. With the established relationships between model inputs and PCE coefficients, forecasts of hydrologic time series can be generated and the uncertainties in the future time series can be further tackled. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study in China and is compared to a traditional stochastic simulation technique, the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method. Results show that the proposed approach can serve as a reliable proxy to complicated hydrological models. It can provide probabilistic forecasting in a more computationally efficient manner, compared to the traditional MCMC method. This work provides technical support for addressing uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling and for enhancing the reliability of hydrological modeling results. Applications of the developed approach can be extended to many other complicated geophysical and environmental modeling systems to support the associated uncertainty quantification and risk analysis.

The application of remote sensing to the development and formulation of hydrologic planning models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowler, T. R.; Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.

1977-01-01

The development of a remote sensing model and its efficiency in determining parameters of hydrologic models are reviewed. Procedures for extracting hydrologic data from LANDSAT imagery, and the visual analysis of composite imagery are presented. A hydrologic planning model is developed and applied to determine seasonal variations in watershed conditions. The transfer of this technology to a user community and contract arrangements are discussed.

Improving Robustness of Hydrologic Ensemble Predictions Through Probabilistic Pre- and Post-Processing in Sequential Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Ancell, B. C.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.

2018-03-01

Data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been increasingly recognized as a promising tool for probabilistic hydrologic predictions. However, little effort has been made to conduct the pre- and post-processing of assimilation experiments, posing a significant challenge in achieving the best performance of hydrologic predictions. This paper presents a unified data assimilation framework for improving the robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions. Statistical pre-processing of assimilation experiments is conducted through the factorial design and analysis to identify the best EnKF settings with maximized performance. After the data assimilation operation, statistical post-processing analysis is also performed through the factorial polynomial chaos expansion to efficiently address uncertainties in hydrologic predictions, as well as to explicitly reveal potential interactions among model parameters and their contributions to the predictive accuracy. In addition, the Gaussian anamorphosis is used to establish a seamless bridge between data assimilation and uncertainty quantification of hydrologic predictions. Both synthetic and real data assimilation experiments are carried out to demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the proposed methodology in the Guadalupe River basin, Texas. Results suggest that statistical pre- and post-processing of data assimilation experiments provide meaningful insights into the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems and enhance robustness of hydrologic ensemble predictions.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

30 CFR 784.14 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 784.14 Section 784.14... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis. All water quality analyses performed to meet the... Center, U.S. Department of the Interior, Building 10, Parkway Center, Pittsburgh, Pa.; at the OSM Western...

30 CFR 784.14 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 784.14 Section 784.14... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis. All water quality analyses performed to meet the... Center, U.S. Department of the Interior, Building 10, Parkway Center, Pittsburgh, Pa.; at the OSM Western...

Spatiotemporal Variability of Great Lakes Basin Snow Cover Ablation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Z. J.; Leathers, D. J.

2017-12-01

In the Great Lakes basin of North America, annual runoff is dominated by snowmelt. This snowmelt-induced runoff plays an important role within the hydrologic cycle of the basin, influencing soil moisture availability and driving the seasonal cycle of spring and summer Lake levels. Despite this, relatively little is understood about the patterns and trends of snow ablation event frequency and magnitude within the Great Lakes basin. This study uses a gridded dataset of Canadian and United States surface snow depth observations to develop a regional climatology of snow ablation events from 1960-2009. An ablation event is defined as an inter-diurnal snow depth decrease within an individual grid cell. A clear seasonal cycle in ablation event frequency exists within the basin and peak ablation event frequency is latitudinally dependent. Most of the basin experiences peak ablation frequency in March, while the northern and southern regions of the basin experience respective peaks in April and February. An investigation into the inter-annual frequency of ablation events reveals ablation events significantly decrease within the northeastern and northwestern Lake Superior drainage basins and significantly increase within the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins. In the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins, larger ablation events are occurring more frequently, and a larger impact to the hydrology can be expected. Trends in ablation events are attributed primarily to changes in snowfall and snow depth across the region.

Scaling biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes.

PubMed

Rolls, Robert J; Heino, Jani; Ryder, Darren S; Chessman, Bruce C; Growns, Ivor O; Thompson, Ross M; Gido, Keith B

2018-05-01

Of all ecosystems, freshwaters support the most dynamic and highly concentrated biodiversity on Earth. These attributes of freshwater biodiversity along with increasing demand for water mean that these systems serve as significant models to understand drivers of global biodiversity change. Freshwater biodiversity changes are often attributed to hydrological alteration by water-resource development and climate change owing to the role of the hydrological regime of rivers, wetlands and floodplains affecting patterns of biodiversity. However, a major gap remains in conceptualising how the hydrological regime determines patterns in biodiversity's multiple spatial components and facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We synthesised primary evidence of freshwater biodiversity responses to natural hydrological regimes to determine how distinct ecohydrological mechanisms affect freshwater biodiversity at local, landscape and regional spatial scales. Hydrological connectivity influences local and landscape biodiversity, yet responses vary depending on spatial scale. Biodiversity at local scales is generally positively associated with increasing connectivity whereas landscape-scale biodiversity is greater with increasing fragmentation among locations. The effects of hydrological disturbance on freshwater biodiversity are variable at separate spatial scales and depend on disturbance frequency and history and organism characteristics. The role of hydrology in determining habitat for freshwater biodiversity also depends on spatial scaling. At local scales, persistence, stability and size of habitat each contribute to patterns of freshwater biodiversity yet the responses are variable across the organism groups that constitute overall freshwater biodiversity. We present a conceptual model to unite the effects of different ecohydrological mechanisms on freshwater biodiversity across spatial scales, and develop four principles for applying a multi-scaled understanding of freshwater biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes. The protection and restoration of freshwater biodiversity is both a fundamental justification and a central goal of environmental water allocation worldwide. Clearer integration of concepts of spatial scaling in the context of understanding impacts of hydrological regimes on biodiversity will increase uptake of evidence into environmental flow implementation, identify suitable biodiversity targets responsive to hydrological change or restoration, and identify and manage risks of environmental flows contributing to biodiversity decline. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western United States using hydrologic landscape classification.

EPA Science Inventory

: Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs are being used to construct spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, a...

An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western united States using hydrologic landscape classification

EPA Science Inventory

Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (Hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs have been used to make spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the ...

30 CFR 780.21 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 780.21 Section 780.21... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis methodology. All water-quality analyses performed to meet... information on the availability of this material at NARA, call 202-741-6030, or go to: http://www.archives.gov...

30 CFR 780.21 - Hydrologic information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Hydrologic information. 780.21 Section 780.21... Hydrologic information. (a) Sampling and analysis methodology. All water-quality analyses performed to meet... information on the availability of this material at NARA, call 202-741-6030, or go to: http://www.archives.gov...

Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 10, Basic Principles of Incorporating Adaptation Science into Hydrologic Planning and Design

EPA Science Inventory

This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 9, Water System Resilience and Security under Hydrologic Variability and Uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

EPA Science Inventory

Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...

Evaluation of Satellite and Model Precipitation Products Over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, M. T.; Amjad, M.

2017-12-01

Satellite-based remote sensing, gauge stations, and models are the three major platforms to acquire precipitation dataset. Among them satellites and models have the advantage of retrieving spatially and temporally continuous and consistent datasets, while the uncertainty estimates of these retrievals are often required for many hydrological studies to understand the source and the magnitude of the uncertainty in hydrological response parameters. In this study, satellite and model precipitation data products are validated over various temporal scales (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily, 10-daily and monthly) using in-situ measured precipitation observations from a network of 733 gauges from all over the Turkey. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 and European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model estimates (daily, 3-daily, 7-daily and 10-daily accumulated forecast) are used in this study. Retrievals are evaluated for their mean and standard deviation and their accuracies are evaluated via bias, root mean square error, error standard deviation and correlation coefficient statistics. Intensity vs frequency analysis and some contingency table statistics like percent correct, probability of detection, false alarm ratio and critical success index are determined using daily time-series. Both ECMWF forecasts and TRMM observations, on average, overestimate the precipitation compared to gauge estimates; wet biases are 10.26 mm/month and 8.65 mm/month, respectively for ECMWF and TRMM. RMSE values of ECMWF forecasts and TRMM estimates are 39.69 mm/month and 41.55 mm/month, respectively. Monthly correlations between Gauges-ECMWF, Gauges-TRMM and ECMWF-TRMM are 0.76, 0.73 and 0.81, respectively. The model and the satellite error statistics are further compared against the gauges error statistics based on inverse distance weighting (IWD) analysis. Both the model and satellite data have less IWD errors (14.72 mm/month and 10.75 mm/month, respectively) compared to gauges IWD error (21.58 mm/month). These results show that, on average, ECMWF forecast data have higher skill than TRMM observations. Overall, both ECMWF forecast data and TRMM observations show good potential for catchment scale hydrological analysis.

An Ensemble-Based Forecasting Framework to Optimize Reservoir Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Increasing frequency of extreme precipitation events are stressing the need to manage water resources on shorter timescales. Short-term management of water resources becomes proactive when inflow forecasts are available and this information can be effectively used in the control strategy. This work investigates the utility of short term hydrological ensemble forecasts for operational decision making during extreme weather events. An advanced automated hydrologic prediction framework integrating a regional scale hydrologic model, GIS datasets and the meteorological ensemble predictions from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) was coupled to an implicit multi-objective dynamic programming model to optimize releases from a water supply reservoir. The proposed methodology was evaluated by retrospectively forecasting the inflows to the Oradell reservoir in the Hackensack River basin in New Jersey during the extreme hydrologic event, Hurricane Irene. Additionally, the flexibility of the forecasting framework was investigated by forecasting the inflows from a moderate rainfall event to provide important perspectives on using the framework to assist reservoir operations during moderate events. The proposed forecasting framework seeks to provide a flexible, assistive tool to alleviate the complexity of operational decision-making.

Developing a hydrological model in the absence of field data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sproles, E. A.; Orrego Nelson, C.; Kerr, T.; Lopez Aspe, D.

2014-12-01

We present two runoff models that use remotely-sensed snow cover products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) as the first order hydrologic input. These simplistic models are the first step in developing an operational model for the Elqui River watershed located in northern Central Chile (30°S). In this semi-arid region, snow and glacier melt are the dominant hydrologic inputs where annual precipitation is limited to three or four winter events. Unfortunately winter access to the Andean Cordillera where snow accumulates is limited. While a monitoring network to measure snow where it accumulates in the upper elevations is under development, management decisions regarding water resources cannot wait. The two models we present differ in structure. The first applies a Monte Carlo approach to determine relationships between lagged changes in monthly snow cover frequency and monthly discharge. The second is a modified degree-day melt model, utilizing the MODIS snow cover product to determine where and when snow melt occurs. These models are not watershed specific and are applicable in other regions where snow dominates hydrologic inputs, but measurements are minimal.

Bridging the Gap between NASA Hydrological Data and the Geospatial Community

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce; Mocko, David M.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph; Gary, Mark; Maidment, David; Hooper, Richard

2011-01-01

There is a vast and ever increasing amount of data on the Earth interconnected energy and hydrological systems, available from NASA remote sensing and modeling systems, and yet, one challenge persists: increasing the usefulness of these data for, and thus their use by, the geospatial communities. The Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), part of the Goddard Earth Sciences DISC, has continually worked to better understand the hydrological data needs of the geospatial end users, to thus better able to bridge the gap between NASA data and the geospatial communities. This paper will cover some of the hydrological data sets available from HDISC, and the various tools and services developed for data searching, data subletting ; format conversion. online visualization and analysis; interoperable access; etc.; to facilitate the integration of NASA hydrological data by end users. The NASA Goddard data analysis and visualization system, Giovanni, is described. Two case examples of user-customized data services are given, involving the EPA BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources) project and the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System, with the common requirement of on-the-fly retrieval of long duration time series for a geographical point

Assessing the Vulnerability of Streams to Increased Frequency and Severity of Low Flows in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, C. P.

2014-12-01

A changing climate poses risks to the availability and quality of water resources. Among the risks, increased frequency and severity of low flow periods in streams would be significant for many in-stream and out-of-stream uses of water. While down-scaled climate projections serve as the basis for understanding impacts of climate change on hydrologic systems, a robust framework for risk assessment incorporates multiple dimensions of risks including the vulnerability of hydrologic systems to climate change impacts. Streamflow records from the southeastern US were examined to assess the vulnerability of streams to increased frequency and severity of low flows. Long-term (>50 years) records provide evidence of more frequent and severe low flows in more streams than would be expected from random chance. Trends in low flows appear to be a result of changes in the temporal distribution rather than the annual amount of preciptation and/or in evaporation. Base flow recession provides an indicator of a stream's vulnerability to such changes. Linkages between streamflow patterns across temporal scales can be used for understanding and asessing stream responses to the various possible expressions of a changing climate.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Multi-objective calibration and uncertainty analysis of hydrologic models; A comparative study between formal and informal methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafii, M.; Tolson, B.; Matott, L. S.

2012-04-01

Hydrologic modeling has benefited from significant developments over the past two decades. This has resulted in building of higher levels of complexity into hydrologic models, which eventually makes the model evaluation process (parameter estimation via calibration and uncertainty analysis) more challenging. In order to avoid unreasonable parameter estimates, many researchers have suggested implementation of multi-criteria calibration schemes. Furthermore, for predictive hydrologic models to be useful, proper consideration of uncertainty is essential. Consequently, recent research has emphasized comprehensive model assessment procedures in which multi-criteria parameter estimation is combined with statistically-based uncertainty analysis routines such as Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. Such a procedure relies on the use of formal likelihood functions based on statistical assumptions, and moreover, the Bayesian inference structured on MCMC samplers requires a considerably large number of simulations. Due to these issues, especially in complex non-linear hydrological models, a variety of alternative informal approaches have been proposed for uncertainty analysis in the multi-criteria context. This study aims at exploring a number of such informal uncertainty analysis techniques in multi-criteria calibration of hydrological models. The informal methods addressed in this study are (i) Pareto optimality which quantifies the parameter uncertainty using the Pareto solutions, (ii) DDS-AU which uses the weighted sum of objective functions to derive the prediction limits, and (iii) GLUE which describes the total uncertainty through identification of behavioral solutions. The main objective is to compare such methods with MCMC-based Bayesian inference with respect to factors such as computational burden, and predictive capacity, which are evaluated based on multiple comparative measures. The measures for comparison are calculated both for calibration and evaluation periods. The uncertainty analysis methodologies are applied to a simple 5-parameter rainfall-runoff model, called HYMOD.

Climate and Hydrological Data Analysis for hydrological and solute transport modelling purposes in the Muriaé River basin, Atlantic Forest Biome, SE Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Juliana; Künne, Annika; Kralisch, Sven; Fink, Manfred; Brenning, Alexander

2016-04-01

The Muriaé River basin in SE Brazil has been experiencing an increasing pressure on water resources, due to the population growth of the Rio de Janeiro urban area connected with the growth of the industrial and agricultural sector. This leads to water scarcity, riverine forest degradation, soil erosion and water quality problems among other impacts. Additionally the region has been suffering with seasonal precipitation variations leading to extreme events such as droughts, floods and landslides. Climate projections for the near future indicate a high inter-annual variability of rainfall with an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events combined with a statistically significant increase in the duration of dry periods and a reduced duration of wet periods. This may lead to increased soil erosion during the wet season, while the longer dry periods may reduce the vegetation cover, leaving the soil even more exposed and vulnerable to soil erosion. In consequence, it is crucial to understand how climate affects the interaction between the timing of extreme rainfall events, hydrological processes, vegetation growth, soil cover and soil erosion. In this context, physically-based hydrological modelling can contribute to a better understanding of spatial-temporal process dynamics in the Earth's system and support Integrated Water Resourses Management (IWRM) and adaptation strategies. The study area is the Muriaé river basin which has an area of approx. 8000 km² in Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro States. The basin is representative of a region of domain of hillslopes areas with the predominancy of pasture for livestock production. This study will present some of the relevant analyses which have been carried out on data (climate and streamflow) prior to using them for hydrological modelling, including consistency checks, homogeneity, pattern and statistical analyses, or annual and seasonal trends detection. Several inconsistencies on the raw data were detected and excluded from the dataset. Statistically significant annual and seasonal trends have been detected such as an increasing trend for annual mean temperature, a decreasing trend for annual relative humidity and an increasing trend for precipitation during the wet season. Moreover, the physically-based and fully distributed hydrological model JAMS/J2K-S has been applied and the spatial-temporal visualization of the climate data as well as an evaluation of spatial uncertainty will be presented.

Tracer-Test Planning Using the Efficient Hydrologic Tracer ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for establishing flow trajectories and hydrologic connections and for determining basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test design can be difficult because of a lack of prior knowledge of the basic hydraulic and geometric parameters desired and the appropriate tracer mass to release. A new efficient hydrologic tracer-test design (EHTD) methodology has been developed that combines basic measured field parameters (e.g., discharge, distance, cross-sectional area) in functional relationships that describe solute-transport processes related to flow velocity and time of travel. The new method applies these initial estimates for time of travel and velocity to a hypothetical continuously stirred tank reactor as an analog for the hydrologic flow system to develop initial estimates for tracer concentration and axial dispersion, based on a preset average tracer concentration. Root determination of the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation (ADE) using the preset average tracer concentration then provides a theoretical basis for an estimate of necessary tracer mass.Application of the predicted tracer mass with the hydraulic and geometric parameters in the ADE allows for an approximation of initial sample-collection time and subsequent sample-collection frequency where a maximum of 65 samples were determined to be

EFFICIENT HYDROLOGICAL TRACER-TEST DESIGN (EHTD ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for establishing flow trajectories and hydrologic connections and for determining basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test design can be difficult because of a lack of prior knowledge of the basic hydraulic and geometric parameters desired and the appropriate tracer mass to release. A new efficient hydrologic tracer-test design (EHTD) methodology has been developed that combines basic measured field parameters (e.g., discharge, distance, cross-sectional area) in functional relationships that describe solute-transport processes related to flow velocity and time of travel. The new method applies these initial estimates for time of travel and velocity to a hypothetical continuously stirred tank reactor as an analog for the hydrologic flow system to develop initial estimates for tracer concentration and axial dispersion, based on a preset average tracer concentration. Root determination of the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation (ADE) using the preset average tracer concentration then provides a theoretical basis for an estimate of necessary tracer mass.Application of the predicted tracer mass with the hydraulic and geometric parameters in the ADE allows for an approximation of initial sample-collection time and subsequent sample-collection frequency where a maximum of 65 samples were determined to

Hydrologic classification of rivers based on cluster analysis of dimensionless hydrologic signatures: Applications for environmental instream flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praskievicz, S. J.; Luo, C.

2017-12-01

Classification of rivers is useful for a variety of purposes, such as generating and testing hypotheses about watershed controls on hydrology, predicting hydrologic variables for ungaged rivers, and setting goals for river management. In this research, we present a bottom-up (based on machine learning) river classification designed to investigate the underlying physical processes governing rivers' hydrologic regimes. The classification was developed for the entire state of Alabama, based on 248 United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages that met criteria for length and completeness of records. Five dimensionless hydrologic signatures were derived for each gage: slope of the flow duration curve (indicator of flow variability), baseflow index (ratio of baseflow to average streamflow), rising limb density (number of rising limbs per unit time), runoff ratio (ratio of long-term average streamflow to long-term average precipitation), and streamflow elasticity (sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation). We used a Bayesian clustering algorithm to classify the gages, based on the five hydrologic signatures, into distinct hydrologic regimes. We then used classification and regression trees (CART) to predict each gaged river's membership in different hydrologic regimes based on climatic and watershed variables. Using existing geospatial data, we applied the CART analysis to classify ungaged streams in Alabama, with the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) catchment (average area 3 km2) as the unit of classification. The results of the classification can be used for meeting management and conservation objectives in Alabama, such as developing statewide standards for environmental instream flows. Such hydrologic classification approaches are promising for contributing to process-based understanding of river systems.

A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2018-02-01

A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

Environmental Flows: Evaluating Long-Term Baselines for Hydrological Regime Change in the Southern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deines, A. M.; Morrison, A. M.; Menzie, C.

2016-12-01

The wide variety of ecosystem services associated with running fresh waters are dependent on an assortment of flow conditions including timing and duration of seasonal floods as well as intermittent flows, such as storm peaks. Modern methods of assessing environmental flows consider hydrological regime change by comparing actual or simulated baseline flow conditions against putatively altered regime flows. These calculated flow changes are used as inputs to models of ecosystem responses such as for fish populations, inundated habitat area, or nutrient supplies. However, common and recommended tools and software used to make flow comparisons between putative regimes lack robust mechanisms for evaluating the significance of hydrological regime change in the context of long-term (multiple decades, centuries, or greater) trends, such as climatic conditions, or the facility to determine the existence and causes of regime changes when no obvious discontinuity exists, such as the construction of a dam. As such, environmental flow decisions based on short (recent) baseline records or baseline records assumed to represent stable hydrological conditions may lead to inefficient water use and ecosystem services distribution. Here we examine long-term patterns in discharge, the frequency and severity of regional droughts, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to better understand the occurrence and causes of hydrological regime change in rivers in the Southern United States. For each river we ask: 1) Has hydrological regime change occurred? 2) To what degree is observed regime change associated with regional climatic drivers? 3) How might environmental flows suggested by current methods (e.g. the USGS Hydroecological Integrity Assessment or the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software) compare with flows derived by additional consideration of long-term drivers of hydrological change? We discuss the different temporal scales through which climate can influence a hydrological regime and provide insights for evaluating or planning expected future flow regimes under potential conditions of water scarcity.

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets, this methodology can be transferred to other regions for better estimation of future hydrological behavior and its impact on society.

How accounting for transient catchment hydrology in the design of river engineering works ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosso, R.; Bocchiola, D.; Rulli, M. C.

2009-04-01

Current engineering practice of hydrologic design is based on hazard estimates that are carried out under the steady state conjecture, i.e. stationarity. This occurs for both assessing averages and second order statistics, and predicting low frequency quantiles. Conversely, routing of hydrologic input variables via known boundary conditions of the systems, i.e. the hydrological basin, can produce non stationary behavior of derived variates, i.e. those required for design. Abrupt changes in the drainage basin can lead to unexpected and profound changes in the magnitude of design events, sometimes providing design loads higher than those expected for a stationary system. Modified connectivity between the constantly developing human mobility network, the drainage system, and the dendritic river topology may result in tremendously modified signature of the climate on hydrologic response. Anthropic footprint on soil use may lead to hugely increased hydrological feedback and floods therein. Transient effects of forest fires in arid or semiarid areas decrease vegetation dampening on runoff production and soil stability, with a dramatic fallout when heavy storms occur within the post event recovery time window. Sudden pulses of fine and coarse sediment occurring in the forest fire's wake, and in connection with rapid mass movements, such as landslides or avalanches in alpine areas, may decrease the effectiveness of engineering works even for unchanged hydrologic loads. New paradigms are necessary to provide enhanced design strategies of river engineering works. These should entail the heavily non linear effects of pulse events with transient effect in time on hydro-morphological dynamics of rivers and increased risk therein, particularly for those works aimed to bear extreme loads, i.e. coping with very high return periods. Major instances deal with dams, power plants, and all those schemes that are very sensitive because of potential consequences of hydrologic catastrophes. Here, examples are given of structures, works and events with transient effect in time affecting the expected hydrological risk, and some strategies sketched to deal with such issues henceforward.

Investigating hydrologic alteration as a mechanism of fish assemblage shifts in urbanizing streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roy, A.H.; Freeman, Mary C.; Freeman, B.J.; Wenger, S.J.; Ensign, W.E.; Meyer, J.L.

2005-01-01

Stream biota in urban and suburban settings are thought to be impaired by altered hydrology; however, it is unknown what aspects of the hydrograph alter fish assemblage structure and which fishes are most vulnerable to hydrologic alterations in small streams. We quantified hydrologic variables and fish assemblages in 30 small streams and their subcatchments (area 8–20 km2) in the Etowah River Catchment (Georgia, USA). We stratified streams and their subcatchments into 3 landcover categories based on imperviousness (<10%, 10–20%, >20% of subcatchment), and then estimated the degree of hydrologic alteration based on synoptic measurements of baseflow yield. We derived hydrologic variables from stage gauges at each study site for 1 y (January 2003–2004). Increased imperviousness was positively correlated with the frequency of storm events and rates of the rising and falling limb of the hydrograph (i.e., storm “flashiness”) during most seasons. Increased duration of low flows associated with imperviousness only occurred during the autumn low-flow period, and this measure corresponded with increased richness of lentic tolerant species. Altered storm flows in summer and autumn were related to decreased richness of endemic, cosmopolitan, and sensitive fish species, and decreased abundance of lentic tolerant species. Species predicted to be sensitive to urbanization, based on specific life-history or habitat requirements, also were related to stormflow variables and % fine bed sediment in riffles. Overall, hydrologic variables explained 22 to 66% of the variation in fish assemblage richness and abundance. Linkages between hydrologic alteration and fish assemblages were potentially complicated by contrasting effects of elevated flows on sediment delivery and scour, and mediating effects of high stream gradient on sediment delivery from elevated flows. However, stormwater management practices promoting natural hydrologic regimes are likely to reduce the impacts of catchment imperviousness on stream fish assemblages.

LFSTAT - Low-Flow Analysis in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koffler, Daniel; Laaha, Gregor

2013-04-01

The calculation of characteristic stream flow during dry conditions is a basic requirement for many problems in hydrology, ecohydrology and water resources management. As opposed to floods, a number of different indices are used to characterise low flows and streamflow droughts. Although these indices and methods of calculation have been well documented in the WMO Manual on Low-flow Estimation and Prediction [1], a comprehensive software was missing which enables a fast and standardized calculation of low flow statistics. We present the new software package lfstat to fill in this obvious gap. Our software package is based on the statistical open source software R, and expands it to analyse daily stream flow data records focusing on low-flows. As command-line based programs are not everyone's preference, we also offer a plug-in for the R-Commander, an easy to use graphical user interface (GUI) provided for R which is based on tcl/tk. The functionality of lfstat includes estimation methods for low-flow indices, extreme value statistics, deficit characteristics, and additional graphical methods to control the computation of complex indices and to illustrate the data. Beside the basic low flow indices, the baseflow index and recession constants can be computed. For extreme value statistics, state-of-the-art methods for L-moment based local and regional frequency analysis (RFA) are available. The tools for deficit characteristics include various pooling and threshold selection methods to support the calculation of drought duration and deficit indices. The most common graphics for low flow analysis are available, and the plots can be modified according to the user preferences. Graphics include hydrographs for different periods, flexible streamflow deficit plots, baseflow visualisation, recession diagnostic, flow duration curves as well as double mass curves, and many more. From a technical point of view, the package uses a S3-class called lfobj (low-flow objects). This objects are usual R-data-frames including date, flow, hydrological year and possibly baseflow information. Once these objects are created, analysis can be performed by mouse-click and a script can be saved to make the analysis easily reproducible. At the moment we are offering implementation of all major methods proposed in the WMO manual on Low-flow Estimation and Predictions [1]. Future plans include a dynamic low flow report in odt-file format using odf-weave which allows automatic updates if data or analysis change. We hope to offer a tool to ease and structure the analysis of stream flow data focusing on low-flows and to make analysis transparent and communicable. The package can also be used in teaching students the first steps in low-flow hydrology. The software packages can be installed from CRAN (latest stable) and R-Forge: http://r-forge.r-project.org (development version). References: [1] Gustard, Alan; Demuth, Siegfried, (eds.) Manual on Low-flow Estimation and Prediction. Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization, (Operational Hydrology Report No. 50, WMO-No. 1029).

The critical role of fire in catchment coevolution in South Eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyman, P.; Inbar, A.; Lane, P. N. J.; Sheridan, G. J.

2016-12-01

Temperate south east Australian forested uplands are characterised by complex spatial patterns in forest types, soils and fire regimes, even within areas with similar geologies and landscape position. Preliminary measurements and experiments suggest that positive and negative feedbacks between the vegetation, fuels, fire frequency and soil erosion may control the coevolution of these observed system states. Here we propose the hypotheses that in this landscape post-fire soil erosion has played a dominant role in the coevolved system-state combinations of standing biomass, fire frequency and soil depth. To test the hypothesis a 1D simulation model was developed that links together an ecohydrological model to drive the biomass production and water and energy partitioning, a stochastic fire model that is controlled by climate, fuel load and moisture conditions, and a geomorphic model that controls soil production and fluvial and diffusive sediment transport rates. The model was calibrated to the range of existing observed quasi-equalibrium system-states of soil depth, standing biomass, fuel loading and fire frequency using field measurements from 12 instrumented eco-hydrologic microclimate research sites. The long-term partitioning of rainfall into evaporation, transpiration, and streamflow was calibrated against field and literature values. Fuel moisture and micro-climate variables were calibrated to the field microclimate stations. The calibrated model was able to reasonably replicate the observed quasi-equilibrium system-states and hydrologic outputs using current climate forcings operating over a 10,000 year period, providing confidence in the model structure and performance. The model was then used to test the hypothesis stated above, by alternatively including or excluding the post fire erosion process. An alternate hypothesis, whereby the observed system states are dominated by climate related differences in soil production rates was also tested in this way. The results support the hypothesis that feedbacks between fire, ecology, hydrology and geomorphology have played a critical role in the coevolution of south east Australian forested uplands. Similar pyro-eco-hydrologic feedbacks may play a critical role in catchment coevolution in other forested systems globally.

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally associated with such return periods. Sensitivity results show that the impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with higher return periods. The average width of the uncertainty range and the size of the range for each catchment reveals that the uncertainties in low frequency events are greater than high frequency events. In addition, the uncertainty interval, estimated as the average width of the uncertainty range of flow for the five return periods, grows wider with a decrease in the runoff coefficient and wetness index of each catchment, both of which tend to increase the nonlinearity in the rainfall response. A key management question that emerges is the acceptability of residual risk where high exposure of vulnerable populations and/or critical infrastructure coincide with high costs of additional capacity in safety margins.

Retrieving Baseflow from SWOT Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baratelli, F.; Flipo, N.; Biancamaria, S.; Rivière, A.

2017-12-01

The quantification of aquifer contribution to river discharge is of primary importance to evaluate the impact of climatic and anthropogenic stresses on the availability of water resources. Several baseflow estimation methods require river discharge measurements, which can be difficult to obtain at high spatio-temporal resolution for large scale basins. The SWOT satellite mission will provide discharge estimations for large rivers (50 - 100 m wide) even in remote basins. The frequency of these estimations depends on the position and ranges from zero to four values in the 21-days satellite cycle. This work aims at answering the following question: can baseflow be estimated from SWOT observations during the mission lifetime? An algorithm based on hydrograph separation by Chapman's filter was developed to automatically estimate the baseflow in a river network at regional or larger scale (> 10000 km2). The algorithm was first applied using the discharge time series simulated at daily time step by a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model to obtain the reference baseflow estimations. The same algorithm is then forced with discharge time series sampled at SWOT observation frequency. The methodology was applied to the Seine River basin (65000 km2, France). The results show that the average baseflow is estimated with good accuracy for all the reaches which are observed at least once per cycle (relative bias less than 4%). The time evolution of baseflow is also rather well retrieved, with a Nash coefficient which is more than 0.7 for 94% of the network length. This work provides new potential for the SWOT mission in terms of global hydrological analysis.

Methods for removal of unwanted signals from gravity time-series: Comparison using linear techniques complemented with analysis of system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencio, Arthur; Grebogi, Celso; Baptista, Murilo S.

2017-10-01

The presence of undesirable dominating signals in geophysical experimental data is a challenge in many subfields. One remarkable example is surface gravimetry, where frequencies from Earth tides correspond to time-series fluctuations up to a thousand times larger than the phenomena of major interest, such as hydrological gravity effects or co-seismic gravity changes. This work discusses general methods for the removal of unwanted dominating signals by applying them to 8 long-period gravity time-series of the International Geodynamics and Earth Tides Service, equivalent to the acquisition from 8 instruments in 5 locations representative of the network. We compare three different conceptual approaches for tide removal: frequency filtering, physical modelling, and data-based modelling. Each approach reveals a different limitation to be considered depending on the intended application. Vestiges of tides remain in the residues for the modelling procedures, whereas the signal was distorted in different ways by the filtering and data-based procedures. The linear techniques employed were power spectral density, spectrogram, cross-correlation, and classical harmonics decomposition, while the system dynamics was analysed by state-space reconstruction and estimation of the largest Lyapunov exponent. Although the tides could not be completely eliminated, they were sufficiently reduced to allow observation of geophysical events of interest above the 10 nm s-2 level, exemplified by a hydrology-related event of 60 nm s-2. The implementations adopted for each conceptual approach are general, so that their principles could be applied to other kinds of data affected by undesired signals composed mainly by periodic or quasi-periodic components.

Soft Water Level Sensors for Characterizing the Hydrological Behaviour of Agricultural Catchments

PubMed Central

Crabit, Armand; Colin, François; Bailly, Jean Stéphane; Ayroles, Hervé; Garnier, François

2011-01-01

An innovative soft water level sensor is proposed to characterize the hydrological behaviour of agricultural catchments by measuring rainfall and stream flows. This sensor works as a capacitor coupled with a capacitance to frequency converter and measures water level at an adjustable time step acquisition. It was designed to be handy, minimally invasive and optimized in terms of energy consumption and low-cost fabrication so as to multiply its use on several catchments under natural conditions. It was used as a stage recorder to measure water level dynamics in a channel during a runoff event and as a rain gauge to measure rainfall amount and intensity. Based on the Manning equation, a method allowed estimation of water discharge with a given uncertainty and hence runoff volume at an event or annual scale. The sensor was tested under controlled conditions in the laboratory and under real conditions in the field. Comparisons of the sensor to reference devices (tipping bucket rain gauge, hydrostatic pressure transmitter limnimeter, Venturi channels…) showed accurate results: rainfall intensities and dynamic responses were accurately reproduced and discharges were estimated with an uncertainty usually acceptable in hydrology. Hence, it was used to monitor eleven small agricultural catchments located in the Mediterranean region. Both catchment reactivity and water budget have been calculated. Dynamic response of the catchments has been studied at the event scale through the rising time determination and at the annual scale by calculating the frequency of occurrence of runoff events. It provided significant insight into catchment hydrological behaviour which could be useful for agricultural management perspectives involving pollutant transport, flooding event and global water balance. PMID:22163868

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median -11%) caused by the hydrologic model’s apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen–Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors’ findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climate-change impacts on water.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

2015-12-01

This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated global water cycle observatory long sought by the World Climate Research Programme, which has to date eluded the world's space agencies.

Combined investigations on long-term hydrochemical monitoring and high frequency measurements in the Critical Zone from the Auradé catchment (SW, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponnou-Delaffon, Vivien; Probst, Anne; Payre-Suc, Virginie; Ferrant, Sylvain; Probst, Jean-Luc

2017-04-01

The Critical Zone (CZ) is now well identified as the land-atmosphere interface under the influence of many human pressures rendering up vulnerable for future generations. Although many investigations have been undergone over the last 30 years in the different compartments of the CZ, it remains important to understand the overall functioning of this area in a context of global change. A long-term hydrological and chemical monitoring was performed since 30 years for nitrates and discharge, and for 10 years for major elements at the stream outlet of a small agricultural carbonated catchment (Auradé site). This catchment is part of the observatories network OZCAR infrastructure and since 1992 it was a pilot for improving agricultural practices. Two time scales were investigated based on a discrete sampling during low water flow and hydrological events, and since 2006 on high frequency datas (every 10mn) for pH, conductivity, nitrate, temperature…using a multiparameter probe. The long-term trends indicated mostly a decreasing in nitrate, Ca and Mg concentrations namely and an increase in DOC, which can be related to the influence of the environmental practices (fertilizers inputs, vegetative filter strip etc..), but more recently to the changes in temperature and hydrological patterns (decreasing discharge and occurrence of rare but intensive events). The high frequency measurements on short-term events allowed: (i) to highlight the mechanisms involved in flux exportations (nycthemeral cycle for nitrates as ex.), (ii) to reconstruct the chemical patterns by correlating the parameters to major elements, and finally (iii) to have a better and more precise approach of the contribution of weathering and land use on the hydrochemical functioning of the CZ, particularly on the disturbance of carbon cycle by anthropogenic fingerprints.

Observational changes to the natural flow regime in Lee Creek in relation to altered precipitation patterns and its implication for fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gatlin, Michael R.; Long, James M.; Turton, Donald J.

2015-01-01

The natural flow regime is important for structuring streams and their resident ichthyofauna and alterations to this regime can have cascading consequences. We sought to determine if changes in hydrology could be attributed to changes in precipitation in a minimally altered watershed (Lee Creek). The stream flow regime was analyzed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software, and data from a nearby climate station were used to summarize concurrent precipitation patterns. We discovered that Lee Creek hydrology had become flashier (i.e., increased frequency of extreme events of shorter duration) since 1992 coincident with changes in precipitation patterns. Specifically, our results show fewer but more intense rain events within the Lee Creek watershed. Our research provides evidence that climate-induced changes to the natural flow regime are currently underway and additional research on its effects on the fish community is warranted.

Combining data from multiple sources using the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Ames, D. P.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Goodall, J. L.

2012-12-01

The Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) has developed a Hydrologic Information System (HIS) to provide better access to data by enabling the publication, cataloging, discovery, retrieval, and analysis of hydrologic data using web services. The CUAHSI HIS is an Internet based system comprised of hydrologic databases and servers connected through web services as well as software for data publication, discovery and access. The HIS metadata catalog lists close to 100 web services registered to provide data through this system, ranging from large federal agency data sets to experimental watersheds managed by University investigators. The system's flexibility in storing and enabling public access to similarly formatted data and metadata has created a community data resource from governmental and academic data that might otherwise remain private or analyzed only in isolation. Comprehensive understanding of hydrology requires integration of this information from multiple sources. HydroDesktop is the client application developed as part of HIS to support data discovery and access through this system. HydroDesktop is founded on an open source GIS client and has a plug-in architecture that has enabled the integration of modeling and analysis capability with the functionality for data discovery and access. Model integration is possible through a plug-in built on the OpenMI standard and data visualization and analysis is supported by an R plug-in. This presentation will demonstrate HydroDesktop, showing how it provides an analysis environment within which data from multiple sources can be discovered, accessed and integrated.

Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

2014-12-01

There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude only while maintaining the GCM's sequencing of events, allowing for the examination of differences in historic and future hydroclimatic extremes. These bias corrected streamflow scenarios provide an alternative to stochastic simulations for hydrologic data analysis and can aid future resource planning and environmental studies.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Investigating impacts of natural and human-induced environmental changes on hydrological processes and flood hazards using a GIS-based hydrological/hydraulic model and remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei

Natural and human-induced environmental changes have been altering the earth's surface and hydrological processes, and thus directly contribute to the severity of flood hazards. To understand these changes and their impacts, this research developed a GIS-based hydrological and hydraulic modeling system, which incorporates state-of-the-art remote sensing data to simulate flood under various scenarios. The conceptual framework and technical issues of incorporating multi-scale remote sensing data have been addressed. This research develops an object-oriented hydrological modeling framework. Compared with traditional lumped or cell-based distributed hydrological modeling frameworks, the object-oriented framework allows basic spatial hydrologic units to have various size and irregular shape. This framework is capable of assimilating various GIS and remotely-sensed data with different spatial resolutions. It ensures the computational efficiency, while preserving sufficient spatial details of input data and model outputs. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of high resolution LIDAR DEM with traditional USGS 30m resolution DEM suggests that the use of LIDAR DEMs can greatly reduce uncertainty in calibration of flow parameters in the hydrologic model and hence increase the reliability of modeling results. In addition, subtle topographic features and hydrologic objects like surface depressions and detention basins can be extracted from the high resolution LiDAR DEMs. An innovative algorithm has been developed to efficiently delineate surface depressions and detention basins from LiDAR DEMs. Using a time series of Landsat images, a retrospective analysis of surface imperviousness has been conducted to assess the hydrologic impact of urbanization. The analysis reveals that with rapid urbanization the impervious surface has been increased from 10.1% to 38.4% for the case study area during 1974--2002. As a result, the peak flow for a 100-year flood event has increased by 20% and the floodplain extent has expanded by about 21.6%. The quantitative analysis suggests that the large regional detentions basins have effectively offset the adverse effect of increased impervious surface during the urbanization process. Based on the simulation and scenario analyses of land subsidence and potential climate changes, some planning measures and policy implications have been derived for guiding smart urban growth and sustainable resource development and management to minimize flood hazards.

Hydrological signals in height and gravity in northeastern Italy inferred from principal components analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, S.; Raicich, F.; Richter, B.; Gorini, V.; Errico, M.

2010-04-01

This work describes a study of GPS heights, gravity and hydrological time series collected by stations located in northeastern Italy. During the last 12 years, changes in the long-term behaviors of the GPS heights and gravity time series are observed. In particular, starting in 2004-2005, a height increase is observed over the whole area. The temporal and spatial variability of these parameters has been studied as well as those of key hydrological variables, namely precipitation, hydrological balance and water table by using the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The coupled variability between the GPS heights and the hydrological balance and precipitation data has been investigated by means of the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) approach. Significant common patterns in the spatial and temporal variability of these parameters have been recognized. In particular, hydrology-induced variations are clearly observable starting in 2002-2003 in the southern part of the Po Plain for the longest time series, and from 2004-2005 over the whole area. These findings, obtained by means of purely mathematical approaches, are supported by sound physical interpretation suggesting that the climate-related fluctuations in the regional/local hydrological regime are one of the main contributors to the observed variations. A regional scale signal has been identified in the GPS station heights; it is characterized by the opposite behavior of the southern and northern stations in response to the hydrological forcing. At Medicina, in the southern Po Plain, the EOF analysis has shown a marked common signal between the GPS heights and the Superconducting Gravimeter (SG) data both over the long and the short period.

Hydrologic modeling strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2008-01-01

The government of Mauritania is interested in how to maintain hydrologic balance to ensure a long-term stable water supply for minerals-related, domestic, and other purposes. Because of the many complicating and competing natural and anthropogenic factors, hydrologists will perform quantitative analysis with specific objectives and relevant computer models in mind. Whereas various computer models are available for studying water-resource priorities, the success of these models to provide reliable predictions largely depends on adequacy of the model-calibration process. Predictive analysis helps us evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty associated with simulated dependent variables of our calibrated model. In this report, the hydrologic modeling process is reviewed and a strategy summarized for future Mauritanian hydrologic modeling studies.

Interannual-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability and its sectoral impacts in northeastern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovino, Miguel A.; Müller, Omar V.; Müller, Gabriela V.; Sgroi, Leandro C.; Baethgen, Walter E.

2018-06-01

This study examines the joint variability of precipitation, river streamflow and temperature over northeastern Argentina; advances the understanding of their links with global SST forcing; and discusses their impacts on water resources, agriculture and human settlements. The leading patterns of variability, and their nonlinear trends and cycles are identified by means of a principal component analysis (PCA) complemented with a singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Interannual hydroclimatic variability centers on two broad frequency bands: one of 2.5-6.5 years corresponding to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicities and the second of about 9 years. The higher frequencies of the precipitation variability (2.5-4 years) favored extreme events after 2000, even during moderate extreme phases of the ENSO. Minimum temperature is correlated with ENSO with a main frequency close to 3 years. Maximum temperature time series correlate well with SST variability over the South Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with a 9-year frequency. Interdecadal variability is characterized by low-frequency trends and multidecadal oscillations that have induced a transition from dryer and cooler climate to wetter and warmer decades starting in the mid-twentieth century. The Paraná River streamflow is influenced by North and South Atlantic SSTs with bidecadal periodicities. The hydroclimate variability at all timescales had significant sectoral impacts. Frequent wet events between 1970 and 2005 favored floods that affected agricultural and livestock productivity and forced population displacements. On the other hand, agricultural droughts resulted in soil moisture deficits that affected crops at critical growth stages. Hydrological droughts affected surface water resources, causing water and food scarcity and stressing the capacity for hydropower generation. Lastly, increases in minimum temperature reduced wheat and barley yields.

Impact of Climate Change and Human Intervention on River Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rajendra; Mittal, Neha; Mishra, Ashok

2017-04-01

Climate change and human interventions like dam construction bring freshwater ecosystem under stress by changing flow regime. It is important to analyse their impact at a regional scale along with changes in the extremes of temperature and precipitation which further modify the flow regime components such as magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate of change of flow. In this study, the Kangsabati river is chosen to analyse the hydrological alterations in its flow regime caused by dam, climate change and their combined impact using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program based on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA). Results show that flow variability is significantly reduced due to dam construction with high flows getting absorbed and pre-monsoon low flows being augmented by the reservoir. Climate change alone reduces the high peaks whereas a combination of dam and climate change significantly reduces variability by affecting both high and low flows, thereby further disrupting the functioning of riverine ecosystems. Analysis shows that in the Kangsabati basin, influence of dam is greater than that of the climate change, thereby emphasising the significance of direct human intervention. Keywords: Climate change, human impact, flow regime, Kangsabati river, SWAT, IHA, RVA.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

Simulating hydrological processes of a typical small mountainous catchment in Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y. P.; Bai, Z.; Fu, Q.; Pan, S.; Zhu, C.

2017-12-01

Water cycle of small watersheds with seasonal/permanent frozen soil and snow pack in Tibetan Plateau is seriously affected by climate change. The objective of this study is to find out how much and in what way the frozen soil and snow pack will influence the hydrology of small mountainous catchments in cold regions and how can the performance of simulation by a distributed hydrological model be improved. The Dong catchment, a small catchment located in Tibetan Plateau, is used as a case study. Two measurement stations are set up to collect basic meteorological and hydrological data for the modeling purpose. Annual and interannual variations of runoff indices are first analyzed based on historic data series. The sources of runoff in dry periods and wet periods are analyzed respectively. Then, a distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) is adopted to simulate the hydrological process of Dong catchment based on limited data set. Global sensitivity analysis is applied to help determine the important processes of the catchment. Based on sensitivity analysis results, the Epsilon-Dominance Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) is finally added into the hydrological model to calibrate the hydrological model in a multi-objective way and analyze the performance of DHSVM model. The performance of simulation is evaluated with several evaluation indices. The final results show that frozen soil and snow pack do play an important role in hydrological processes in cold mountainous region, in particular in dry periods without precipitation, while in wet periods precipitation is often the main source of runoff. The results also show that although the DHSVM hydrological model has the potential to model the hydrology well in small mountainous catchments with very limited data in Tibetan Plateau, the simulation of hydrology in dry periods is not very satisfactory due to the model's insufficiency in simulating seasonal frozen soil.

Sensors in the Stream: The High-Frequency Wave of the Present.

PubMed

Rode, Michael; Wade, Andrew J; Cohen, Matthew J; Hensley, Robert T; Bowes, Michael J; Kirchner, James W; Arhonditsis, George B; Jordan, Phil; Kronvang, Brian; Halliday, Sarah J; Skeffington, Richard A; Rozemeijer, Joachim C; Aubert, Alice H; Rinke, Karsten; Jomaa, Seifeddine

2016-10-04

New scientific understanding is catalyzed by novel technologies that enhance measurement precision, resolution or type, and that provide new tools to test and develop theory. Over the last 50 years, technology has transformed the hydrologic sciences by enabling direct measurements of watershed fluxes (evapotranspiration, streamflow) at time scales and spatial extents aligned with variation in physical drivers. High frequency water quality measurements, increasingly obtained by in situ water quality sensors, are extending that transformation. Widely available sensors for some physical (temperature) and chemical (conductivity, dissolved oxygen) attributes have become integral to aquatic science, and emerging sensors for nutrients, dissolved CO 2 , turbidity, algal pigments, and dissolved organic matter are now enabling observations of watersheds and streams at time scales commensurate with their fundamental hydrological, energetic, elemental, and biological drivers. Here we synthesize insights from emerging technologies across a suite of applications, and envision future advances, enabled by sensors, in our ability to understand, predict, and restore watershed and stream systems.

Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Modelling phosphorus transport and its response to climate change at upper stream of Poyang Lake-the largest fresh water lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Phosphorus losses from excessive fertilizer application and improper land exploitation were found to be the limiting factor for freshwater quality deterioration and eutrophication. Phosphorus transport from uplands to river is related to hydrological, soil erosion and sediment transport processes, which is impacted by several physiographic and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of phosphorus losses and response to climate change at a typical upstream tributary (Le'An river) of Poyang Lake. To this end, a process-oriented hydrological and nutrient transport model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) was set up for discharge and phosphorus transport simulation at Le'An catchment. Parameter ESTimator (PEST) was combined with HYPE model for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimisation. In runoff modelling, potential evapotranspiration rate of the dominant land use (forest) is most sensitive; parameters of surface runoff rate and percolation capacity for the red soil are also very sensitive. In phosphorus transport modelling, the exponent of equation for soil erosion processes induced by surface runoff is most sensitive, coefficient of adsorption/desorption processes for red soil is also very sensitive. Flow dynamics and water balance were simulated well at all sites for the whole period (1978-1986) with NSE≥0.80 and PBIAS≤14.53%. The optimized hydrological parameter set were transferable for the independent period (2009-2010) with NSE≥0.90 and highest PBIAS of -7.44% in stream flow simulation. Seasonal dynamics and balance of stream water TP (Total Phosphorus ) concentrations were captured satisfactorily indicated by NSE≥0.53 and highest PBIAS of 16.67%. In annual scale, most phosphorus is transported via surface runoff during heavy storm flow events, which may account for about 70% of annual TP loads. Based on future climate change analysis under three different emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), there is no considerable change in average annual rainfall amount in 2020-2035 while increasing occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events were predicted. The validated HYPE model was run on the three emission scenarios. Overall increase of TP loads was found in future with the largest increase of annual TP loads under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The outcomes of this study (i) verified the transferability of HYPE model at humid subtropical and heterogeneous catchment; (ii) revealed the sensitive hydrological and phosphorus transport processes and relevant parameters; (iii) implied more TP losses in future in response to increasing extreme rainfall events.

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Distal deltaic deposits document hydrological variability during the past 30 kyrBP in Lake Towuti, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Hendrik; Russell, James M.; Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Bijaksana, Satria; Wattrus, Nigel; Rethemeyer, Janet; Melles, Martin

2014-05-01

Lake Towuti (2.75°S, 121.5°E; 318 m a.s.l.) is a, 560 km2, 200-m deep tectonic lake at the downstream end of the Malili lake system, a set of five, ancient (1-2 MYr) tectonic lakes in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The Mahalona River constitutes the largest tributary and connects Lake Towuti with the two upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into the >200m deep northern basin of Lake Towuti. Tracing past variability of Mahalona River discharge is therefore an important puzzle piece for the understanding of depositional dynamics in Lake Towuti as well as catchment hydrology and hydrological connectivity between the Malili Lakes. Distal deltaic deposits can help identifying past variability in river discharge and delta dynamics. Using highly resolved seismic reflection data collected between 2007-2013 we identified a stack of acoustically laminated reflections in Towuti's extensive and morphologically flat deep northern basin. For detailed characterization of these acoustic features we collected a c. 20m long piston core from the basin centre at 200 m water depth reaching back to c. 30 kyrBP. Sediments in this piston core consist to 75% of mass wasting deposits (MWD) of variable thickness that are intercalated with pelagic muds (25%). MWD appear mostly homogenous (silt- to finesand-sized siliciclastics with high amounts of terrestrial plant macrofossils) with only thin (1-3 cm) basal sand layers and clay caps (<1 cm). Pelagic muds appear as thin to medium bedded slightly silty clays that are clearly distinguishable from MWD. The position of MWD identified in our piston core nicely correlates with acoustically laminated reflections identified in seismic profiles crossing the coring site. Based on these combined sedimentological and acoustic datasets we interpret MWD in Towuti's northern basin as distal deltaic deposits originating from the Mahalona River Delta. Frequencies and percentages (in terms of lithofacies contribution) of distal deltaic deposits differ substantially between the Holocene (56%) and last glacial (88%) sediment succession. In combination with data from hydrological proxies and seismic reflection data indicating dry climate conditions and lake level lowstands, respectively, we interpret the higher frequency of distal deltaic deposits during the last glacial as a result of subaerial exposure and erosion of Mahalona River Delta sediments. These findings imply that frequencies and percentages of distal deltaic deposits in Lake Towuti may be an additional indicator for hydrological variability in this particular system.

An Assessment of Hydrology, Fluvial Geomorphology, and Stream Ecology in the Cardwell Branch Watershed, Nebraska, 2003-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rus, David L.; Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Woodward, Brenda K.; Fry, Beth E.; Wilson, Richard C.

2007-01-01

An assessment of the 16.3-square-mile Cardwell Branch watershed characterized the hydrology, fluvial geomorphology, and stream ecology in 2003-04. The study - performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Lincoln, Nebraska, and the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District - focused on the 7.7-square-mile drainage downstream from Yankee Hill Reservoir. Hydrologic and hydraulic models were developed using the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic Engineering Center. Estimates of streamflow and water-surface elevation were simulated for 24-hour-duration design rainstorms ranging from a 50-percent frequency to a 0.2-percent frequency. An initial HEC-HMS model was developed using the standardized parameter estimation techniques associated with the Soil Conservation Service curve number technique. An adjusted HEC-HMS model also was developed in which parameters were adjusted in order for the model output to better correspond to peak streamflows estimated from regional regression equations. Comparisons of peak streamflow from the two HEC-HMS models indicate that the initial HEC-HMS model may better agree with the regional regression equations for higher frequency storms, and the adjusted HEC-HMS model may perform more closely to regional regression equations for larger, rarer events. However, a lack of observed streamflow data, coupled with conflicting results from regional regression equations and local high-water marks, introduced considerable uncertainty into the model simulations. Using the HEC-RAS model to estimate water-surface elevations associated with the peak streamflow, the adjusted HEC-HMS model produced average increases in water-surface elevation of 0.2, 1.1, and 1.4 feet for the 50-, 1-, and 0.2-percent-frequency rainstorms, respectively, when compared to the initial HEC-HMS model. Cross-sectional surveys and field assessments conducted between November 2003 and March 2004 indicated that Cardwell Branch and its unnamed tributary appear to be undergoing incision (the process of downcutting) (with three locations showing 2 or more feet of streambed incision since 1978) that is somewhat moderated by the presence of grade controls and vegetation along the channel profile. Although streambank failures were commonly observed, 96 percent of the surveyed cross sections were classified as stable by planar and rotational failure analysis-a disconnect that may have been the result of assumed soil properties. Two process-based classification systems each indicated that the reaches within the study area were incising and widening, and the Rosgen classification system characterized the streams as either type E6 or B6c. E6 channels are hydraulically efficient with low width-depth ratios, low to moderate sinuosity, and gentle to moderately steep slopes. B6c channels typically are incised with low width-depth ratios maintained by riparian vegetation, low bedload transport, and high washload transport. No obvious nickpoints (interruption or break in slope) were observed in the thalweg profile (line of maximum streambed descent), and the most acute incision occurred immediately downstream from bridges and culverts. Nine water-quality samples were collected between August 2003 and November 2004 near the mouth of the watershed. Sediment-laden rainfall-runoff substantially affected the water quality in Cardwell Branch, leading to greater biochemical and chemical oxygen demands as well as increased concentrations of several nutrient, bacteriological, sediment, and pesticide constituents. The storage of rainfall runoff in Yankee Hill Reservoir may prolong the presence of runoff-related constituents downstream. Across the study area, there was a lack of habitat availability for aquatic biota because of low dissolved oxygen levels and low streamflows or dry channels. In August 2003, the aquatic community near the mouth of

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Critical zone evolution and the origins of organised complexity in watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.; Pelletier, J.; Rasmussen, C.; Chorover, J.

2012-04-01

The capacity of the landscape to store and transmit water is the result of a historical trajectory of landscape, soil and vegetation development, much of which is driven by hydrology itself. Progress in geomorphology and pedology has produced models of surface and sub-surface evolution in soil-mantled uplands. These dissected, denuding modeled landscapes are emblematic of the kinds of dissipative self-organized flow structures whose hydrologic organization may also be understood by low-dimensional hydrologic models. They offer an exciting starting-point for examining the mapping between the long-term controls on landscape evolution and the high-frequency hydrologic dynamics. Here we build on recent theoretical developments in geomorphology and pedology to try to understand how the relative rates of erosion, sediment transport and soil development in a landscape determine catchment storage capacity and the relative dominance of runoff process, flow pathways and storage-discharge relationships. We do so by using a combination of landscape evolution models, hydrologic process models and data from a variety of sources, including the University of Arizona Critical Zone Observatory. A challenge to linking the landscape evolution and hydrologic model representations is the vast differences in the timescales implicit in the process representations. Furthermore the vast array of processes involved makes parameterization of such models an enormous challenge. The best data-constrained geomorphic transport and soil development laws only represent hydrologic processes implicitly, through the transport and weathering rate parameters. In this work we propose to avoid this problem by identifying the relationship between the landscape and soil evolution parameters and macroscopic climate and geological controls. These macroscopic controls (such as the aridity index) have two roles: 1) they express the water and energy constraints on the long-term evolution of the landscape system, and 2) they bound the range of plausible short-term hydroclimatic regimes that may drive a particular landscape's hydrologic dynamics. To ensure that the hydrologic dynamics implicit in the evolutionary parameters are compatible with the dynamics observed in the hydrologic modeling, a set of consistency checks based on flow process dominance are developed.

Continuous earlywood vessels chronologies in floodplain ring-porous species can improve dendrohydrological reconstructions of spring high flows and flood levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kames, S.; Tardif, J. C.; Bergeron, Y.

2016-03-01

Plants respond to environmental stimuli through changes in growth and development. Characteristics of wood cells such as the cross-sectional area of vessel elements (hereafter referred to as vessels) may store information about environmental factors present at the time of vessel differentiation. The analysis of vessel characteristics therefore offers a different time resolution than annual ring width because vessels in tree rings differentiate within days to a few weeks. Little research has been conducted on the sensitivity of earlywood vessels in ring-porous species in response to flooding. The general objectives of this study were to determine the plasticity of earlywood vessel to high flows and spring flooding in floodplain black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) trees and to assess the utility of developing continuous earlywood vessel chronologies in dendrohydrological reconstruction. In contrast, most dendrohydrological studies until now have mainly used vessel anomalies (flood rings) as discrete variables to identify exceptional flood events. The study area is located in the boreal region of northwestern Québec. Vessel and ring-width chronologies were generated from F. nigra trees growing on the floodplain of Lake Duparquet. Spring discharge had among all hydro-climatic variables the strongest impact on vessel formation and this signal was coherent spatially and in the frequency domain. The mean vessel area chronology was significantly and negatively correlated to discharge and both the linearity and the strength of this association were unique. In floodplain F. nigra trees, spring flooding promoted the formation of more abundant but smaller earlywood vessels. Earlywood vessels chronologies were also significantly associated with other hydrological indicators like Lake Duparquet's ice break-up date and both ice-scar frequency and height chronologies. These significant relationships stress the utility of developing continuous vessels chronologies for hydrological reconstructions prior to instrumental data. Continuous earlywood vessel chronologies may also be useful in determining the impact of altered hydrological regime in floodplain habitat regulated by spring floods. Future research should involve quantifying the impact of high flows and flooding on other cell constituents and also determining the plasticity and utility of continuous anatomical series in floodplain diffuse-porous species.

Development of a method of robust rain gauge network optimization based on intensity-duration-frequency results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebbi, A.; Bargaoui, Z. K.; da Conceição Cunha, M.

2012-12-01

Based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, a robust optimization approach is proposed to identify the best locations to install new rain gauges. The advantage of robust optimization is that the resulting design solutions yield networks which behave acceptably under hydrological variability. Robust optimisation can overcome the problem of selecting representative rainfall events when building the optimization process. This paper reports an original approach based on Montana IDF model parameters. The latter are assumed to be geostatistical variables and their spatial interdependence is taken into account through the adoption of cross-variograms in the kriging process. The problem of optimally locating a fixed number of new monitoring stations based on an existing rain gauge network is addressed. The objective function is based on the mean spatial kriging variance and rainfall variogram structure using a variance-reduction method. Hydrological variability was taken into account by considering and implementing several return periods to define the robust objective function. Variance minimization is performed using a simulated annealing algorithm. In addition, knowledge of the time horizon is needed for the computation of the robust objective function. A short and a long term horizon were studied, and optimal networks are identified for each. The method developed is applied to north Tunisia (area = 21 000 km2). Data inputs for the variogram analysis were IDF curves provided by the hydrological bureau and available for 14 tipping bucket type rain gauges. The recording period was from 1962 to 2001, depending on the station. The study concerns an imaginary network augmentation based on the network configuration in 1973, which is a very significant year in Tunisia because there was an exceptional regional flood event in March 1973. This network consisted of 13 stations and did not meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations for the minimum spatial density. So, it is proposed to virtually augment it by 25, 50, 100 and 160% which is the rate that would meet WMO requirements. Results suggest that for a given augmentation robust networks remain stable overall for the two time horizons.

Development of a method of robust rain gauge network optimization based on intensity-duration-frequency results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebbi, A.; Bargaoui, Z. K.; da Conceição Cunha, M.

2013-10-01

Based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, fitted in several locations of a given area, a robust optimization approach is proposed to identify the best locations to install new rain gauges. The advantage of robust optimization is that the resulting design solutions yield networks which behave acceptably under hydrological variability. Robust optimization can overcome the problem of selecting representative rainfall events when building the optimization process. This paper reports an original approach based on Montana IDF model parameters. The latter are assumed to be geostatistical variables, and their spatial interdependence is taken into account through the adoption of cross-variograms in the kriging process. The problem of optimally locating a fixed number of new monitoring stations based on an existing rain gauge network is addressed. The objective function is based on the mean spatial kriging variance and rainfall variogram structure using a variance-reduction method. Hydrological variability was taken into account by considering and implementing several return periods to define the robust objective function. Variance minimization is performed using a simulated annealing algorithm. In addition, knowledge of the time horizon is needed for the computation of the robust objective function. A short- and a long-term horizon were studied, and optimal networks are identified for each. The method developed is applied to north Tunisia (area = 21 000 km2). Data inputs for the variogram analysis were IDF curves provided by the hydrological bureau and available for 14 tipping bucket type rain gauges. The recording period was from 1962 to 2001, depending on the station. The study concerns an imaginary network augmentation based on the network configuration in 1973, which is a very significant year in Tunisia because there was an exceptional regional flood event in March 1973. This network consisted of 13 stations and did not meet World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations for the minimum spatial density. Therefore, it is proposed to augment it by 25, 50, 100 and 160% virtually, which is the rate that would meet WMO requirements. Results suggest that for a given augmentation robust networks remain stable overall for the two time horizons.

Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 14, Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and Prioritization Tools in Water System Adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

Testing the Hydrological Coherence of High-Resolution Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiti, L.; Mallucci, S.; Piccolroaz, S.; Bellin, A.; Zardi, D.; Fiori, A.; Nikulin, G.; Majone, B.

2018-03-01

Assessing the accuracy of gridded climate data sets is highly relevant to climate change impact studies, since evaluation, bias correction, and statistical downscaling of climate models commonly use these products as reference. Among all impact studies those addressing hydrological fluxes are the most affected by errors and biases plaguing these data. This paper introduces a framework, coined Hydrological Coherence Test (HyCoT), for assessing the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets with hydrological observations. HyCoT provides a framework for excluding meteorological forcing data sets not complying with observations, as function of the particular goal at hand. The proposed methodology allows falsifying the hypothesis that a given data set is coherent with hydrological observations on the basis of the performance of hydrological modeling measured by a metric selected by the modeler. HyCoT is demonstrated in the Adige catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) for streamflow analysis, using a distributed hydrological model. The comparison covers the period 1989-2008 and includes five gridded daily meteorological data sets: E-OBS, MSWEP, MESAN, APGD, and ADIGE. The analysis highlights that APGD and ADIGE, the data sets with highest effective resolution, display similar spatiotemporal precipitation patterns and produce the largest hydrological efficiency indices. Lower performances are observed for E-OBS, MESAN, and MSWEP, especially in small catchments. HyCoT reveals deficiencies in the representation of spatiotemporal patterns of gridded climate data sets, which cannot be corrected by simply rescaling the meteorological forcing fields, as often done in bias correction of climate model outputs. We recommend this framework to assess the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets to be used in large-scale hydroclimatic studies.

Long-Term Data Reveal Patterns and Controls on Stream Water Chemistry in a Forested Stream: Walker Branch, Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lutz, Brian D; Mulholland, Patrick J; Bernhardt, Emily

2012-01-01

We present 20 years of weekly stream water chemistry, hydrology, and climate data for the Walker Branch watershed in eastern Tennessee, USA. Since 1989, the watershed has experienced a similar to 1.08 degrees C increase in mean annual temperature, a similar to 20% decline in precipitation, and a similar to 30% increase in forest evapotranspiration rates. As a result, stream runoff has declined by similar to 34%. We evaluate long-term trends in stream water concentrations and fluxes for nine solutes and use wet deposition data to calculate approximate watershed input-output budgets. Dissolved constituents were classified as geochemical solutes (Ca2+, Mg2+,more » and SO42-) or nutrients (NH4+, NO3-, soluble reactive phosphorus [SRP], total soluble nitrogen [TSN], total soluble phosphorus [TSP], and dissolved organic carbon [DOC]). Geochemical solutes are predominantly controlled by discharge, and the long-term changes in catchment hydrology have led to significant trends in the concentrations and fluxes of these solutes. Further, the trends in geochemical solute concentrations indicate shifting soil flowpath contributions to streamflow generation through time, with deep groundwater having a greater proportional contribution in recent years. Despite dramatic changes in watershed runoff, there were no trends in inorganic nutrient concentrations (NH4+, NO3-, and SRP). While most nutrients entering the watershed are retained, stream fluxes of nutrient solutes have declined significantly as a result of decreasing runoff. Nutrient concentrations in the stream exhibit large seasonality controlled by in-stream biological uptake. Stream benthic communities are sensitive to hydrologic disturbance, and changes in the frequency or intensity of storm events through time can affect nutrient fluxes. Stream NO3- concentrations are also sensitive to drought, with concentrations decreasing (increasing) if conditions during the three years prior to the time of sampling were drier (wetter) than the long-term mean. Future changes in the incidence of storm events, as well as the number and duration of droughts, have the potential to significantly alter watershed nutrient losses. Our analysis indicates that changing climates can differentially affect watershed element cycles either through changes in biogeochemical process rates or through changes in catchment hydrology. Furthermore, climate change can include both long-term trending in mean climate variables, as well as changes in the frequency and intensity of storms and droughts, with each of these types of change having distinct effects on the biological and geochemical processes governing different solutes.« less

Investigating Forest Harvest Effects on DOC Concentration and Quality: An In Situ, High Resolution Approach to Quantifying DOC Export Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jollymore, A. J.; Johnson, M. S.; Hawthorne, I.

2013-12-01

Justification: Forest harvest effects on water quality can signal alterations in hydrologic and ecologic processes incurred as a result of forest harvest activities. Organic matter (OM), specifically dissolved organic carbon (DOC), plays a number of important roles mediating UV-light penetration, redox reactivity and microbial activity within aquatic ecosystems. Quantification of DOC is typically pursued via grab sampling followed by chemical or spectrophotometric analysis, limiting the temporal resolution obtained as well as the accuracy of export calculations. The advent of field-deployable sensors capable of measuring DOC concentration and certain quality characteristics in situ provides the ability to observe dynamics at temporal scales necessary for accurate calculation of DOC flux, as well as the observation of dynamic changes in DOC quality on timescales impossible to observe through grab sampling. Methods: This study utilizes a field deployable UV-Vis spectrophotometer (spectro::lyzer, s::can, Austria) to investigate how forest harvest affects DOC export. The sensor was installed at an existing hydrologic monitoring site at the outlet of a headwater stream draining a small (91 hectare) second growth Douglasfir-dominated catchment near Campbell River on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Measurement began late in 2009, prior to forest harvest and associated activities such as road building (which commenced in October 2010 and ended in early 2011), and continues to present. During this time - encompassing the pre, during and post-harvest conditions - the absorbance spectrum of stream water from 200 to 750 nm was measured. DOC concentration and spectroscopic indices related to DOC quality (including SUVA, which relates to the concentration of aromatic carbon, and spectral slope) were subsequently calculated for each spectra obtained at 30-minute intervals. Results and conclusions: High frequency measurements of DOC show that overall export of OM increased in the months following harvest. A major advantage of this study is the use of in situ measurements, allowing for high temporal resolution of DOC dynamics occurring within specific hydrologic events. For example, concentration-discharge relationships for both the pre- and post-logging periods demonstrate similar clockwise hysteresis during individual storm events, while the magnitude of change dramatically increased during the post-logging period. However, in situ measurements of SUVA over this period suggest that DOC quality may be less affected by forest harvest than overall DOC concentration, where high frequency data also allows for the observation of SUVA and spectral slope responses to specific hydrologic events during the pre- and post- harvest period.

Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

2016-02-01

Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulated natural hydrologic regime of an intermountain playa conservation site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderson, J.S.; Kotliar, N.B.; Steingraeber, D.A.; Browne, C.

2008-01-01

An intermountain playa wetland preserve in Colorado's San Luis Valley was studied to assess how its current hydrologic function compares to its natural hydrologic regime. Current hydrologic conditions were quantified, and on-site effects of off-site water use were assessed. A water-budget model was developed to simulate an unaltered (i.e., natural) hydrologic regime, and simulated natural conditions were compared to observed conditions. From 1998-2002, observed stream inflows accounted for ??? 80% of total annual water inputs. No ground water discharged to the wetland. Evapotranspiration (ET) accounted for ??? 69% of total annual water loss. Simulated natural conditions differed substantially from current altered conditions with respect to depth, variability, and frequency of flooding. During 1998-2002, observed monthly mean surface-water depth was 65% lower than under simulated natural conditions. Observed monthly variability in water depth range from 129% greater (May) to 100% less (September and October) than simulated. As observed, the wetland dried completely (i.e., was ephemeral) in all years; as simulated, the wetland was ephemeral in two of five years. For the period 1915-2002, the simulated wetland was inundated continuously for as long as 16 years and nine months. The large differences in observed and simulated surface-water dynamics resulted from differences between altered and simulated unaltered stream inflows. The maximum and minimum annual total stream inflows observed from 1998-2005 were 3.1 ?? 106 m3 and 0 m3, respectively, versus 15.5 ?? 106 m3 and 3.2 ?? 106 m3 under simulated natural conditions from 1915-2002. The maximum simulated inflow was 484% greater than observed. These data indicate that the current hydrologic regime of this intermountain playa differs significantly from its natural hydrologic regime, which has important implications for planning and assessing conservation success. ?? 2008, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

2009-06-01

Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advances in variable selection methods I: Causal selection methods versus stepwise regression and principal component analysis on data of known and unknown functional relationships

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological predictions at a watershed scale are commonly based on extrapolation and upscaling of hydrological behavior at plot and hillslope scales. Yet, dominant hydrological drivers at a hillslope may not be as dominant at the watershed scale because of the heterogeneity of w...

Use of frequency analysis and the extended streamflow prediction procedure to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool of Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Nickless, R.C.

1994-01-01

Part of the storage space of Pueblo Reservoir consists of a 65,950 acre-foot joint-use pool (JUP) that can be used to provide additional conservation capacity from November 1 to April 14; however, the JUP must be evacuated by April 15 and used only for flood-control capacity until November 1. A study was completed to determine if the JUP possibly could be used for conservation storage for any number of days from April 15 through May 14 under certain hydrologic conditions. The methods of the study were: (1) Frequency analysis of recorded daily mean discharge data for streamflow-gaging stations upstream and downstream from Pueblo Reservoir, and (2) Implementation of the extended streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure for the Arkansas River basin upstream from the reservoir. The frequency analyses enabled estimation of daily discharges at selected exceedance probabilities (EP's), including the 0.01 EP that was used in design of the flood- storage capacity of Pueblo Reservoir. The ESP procedure enabled probabilistic forecasts of inflow volume to the reservoir for April 15 through May 14. Daily discharges derived from the frequency analyses were routed through Pueblo Reservoir to estimate evacuation dates of the JUP for different reservoir inflow volumes; the estimates indicated a relation between the inflow volume and the JUP evacuation date. To apply the study results, only a ESP forecast of the April 15-May 14 reservoir inflow volume is needed. Study results indicate the JUP possibly could be used as late as May 5 depending on the forecast inflow volume.

Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

2009-02-01

The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is predicted to increase climate variability and the frequency and severity of droughts. Predicting how ecosystems will be affected by climate change requires not only reliable forecasts of future climate, but also observationa...

Impacts of urbanization on river flow frequency: A controlled experimental modeling-based evaluation approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in land use are likely to cause a non-linear response in watershed hydrology. Specifically, small increases in urban expansion may greatly increase surface runoff while decreasing infiltration, impacting aquifer recharge and changing streamflow regimes. Quantifying the effects of urbanizatio...

40 CFR 265.280 - Closure and post-closure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., including amount, frequency, and pH of precipitation; (5) Geological and soil profiles and surface and subsurface hydrology of the site, and soil characteristics, including cation exchange capacity, total organic..., concentration, and depth of migration of hazardous waste constituents in the soil as compared to their...

40 CFR 265.280 - Closure and post-closure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., including amount, frequency, and pH of precipitation; (5) Geological and soil profiles and surface and subsurface hydrology of the site, and soil characteristics, including cation exchange capacity, total organic..., concentration, and depth of migration of hazardous waste constituents in the soil as compared to their...

40 CFR 265.280 - Closure and post-closure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., including amount, frequency, and pH of precipitation; (5) Geological and soil profiles and surface and subsurface hydrology of the site, and soil characteristics, including cation exchange capacity, total organic..., concentration, and depth of migration of hazardous waste constituents in the soil as compared to their...

40 CFR 265.280 - Closure and post-closure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., including amount, frequency, and pH of precipitation; (5) Geological and soil profiles and surface and subsurface hydrology of the site, and soil characteristics, including cation exchange capacity, total organic..., concentration, and depth of migration of hazardous waste constituents in the soil as compared to their...

40 CFR 265.280 - Closure and post-closure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., including amount, frequency, and pH of precipitation; (5) Geological and soil profiles and surface and subsurface hydrology of the site, and soil characteristics, including cation exchange capacity, total organic..., concentration, and depth of migration of hazardous waste constituents in the soil as compared to their...

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.

2018-05-10

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both.Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described.Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency-analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

Assessing the quality of rainfall data when aiming to achieve flood resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoang, C. T.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

2012-04-01

A new EU Floods Directive entered into force five years ago. This Directive requires Member States to coordinate adequate measures to reduce flood risk. European flood management systems require reliable rainfall statistics, e.g. the Intensity-duration-Frequency curves for shorter and shorter durations and for a larger and larger range of return periods. Preliminary studies showed that the number of floods was lower when using low time resolution data of high intensity rainfall events, compared to estimates obtained with the help of higher time resolution data. These facts suggest that a particular attention should be paid to the rainfall data quality in order to adequately investigate flood risk aiming to achieve flood resilience. The potential consequences of changes in measuring and recording techniques have been somewhat discussed in the literature with respect to a possible introduction of artificial inhomogeneities in time series. In this paper, we discuss how to detect another artificiality: most of the rainfall time series have a lower recording frequency than that is assumed, furthermore the effective high-frequency limit often depends on the recording year due to algorithm changes. This question is particularly important for operational hydrology, because an error on the effective recording high frequency introduces biases in the corresponding statistics. In this direction, we developed a first version of a SERQUAL procedure to automatically detect the effective time resolution of highly mixed data. Being applied to the 166 rainfall time series in France, the SERQUAL procedure has detected that most of them have an effective hourly resolution, rather than a 5 minutes resolution. Furthermore, series having an overall 5 minute resolution do not have it for all years. These results raise serious concerns on how to benchmark stochastic rainfall models at a sub-hourly resolution, which are particularly desirable for operational hydrology. Therefore, database quality must be checked before use. Due to the fact that the multiple scales and possible scaling behaviour of hydrological data are particularly important for many applications, including flood resilience research, this paper first investigates the sensitivity of the scaling estimates and methods to the deficit of short duration rainfall data, and consequently propose a few simple criteria for a reliable evaluation of the data quality. Then we showed that our procedure SERQUAL enable us to extract high quality sub-series from longer time series that will be much more reliable to calibrate and/or validate short duration quantiles and hydrological models.

Hydrologic Links Among Urbanization, Channel Morphology, Aquatic Habitat, and Macroinvertebrates in North Carolina Piedmont Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giddings, E. M.

2005-12-01

Landscape changes associated with urbanization have been shown to alter flow regimes of streams that, in turn, alter channel morphology, aquatic habitat, and biological communities. In order to mitigate the effects of urbanization on biological communities, it is important to understand the hydrologic links between these interactions. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 30 stream sites in the Piedmont of North Carolina (including the cities Raleigh, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem) having a range of watershed urbanization were sampled. To measure urbanization intensity, a multimetric index of watershed and riparian land use, infrastructure, and socioeconomic conditions was used. Population density ranged from 24 to 3,276 people per square kilometer; 75 percent of the sites had less than 2,000 people per square kilometer. At each site, continuous discharge record was estimated for 1 year using continuous stream-stage data, instantaneous discharge measurements, and one-dimensional hydraulic modeling. Hydrologic variability metrics were calculated to compare the magnitude, frequency, and duration of high and low flows among sites. These metrics then were correlated with measures of channel morphology, habitat, a richness-based macroinvertebrate index, and the urban-intensity index. As urban intensity in the watershed increased, the frequency of quickly rising flows increased (R2=0.55, p<0.0001), and the duration of high flows decreased (R2=0.47, p=0.0001). Along with these changes, channels became more incised; bankfull channel depths (normalized by drainage area) increased as the frequency of quickly rising flows increased (R2=0.28, p=0.006) and the duration of high flows decreased (R2=0.17, p =0.04). Additionally, streams with higher frequencies of quickly rising flows had greater percentages of sand as a dominant substrate (R2=0.19, p=0.03) and greater differences between bankfull depth and low-flow depth at summer flows (R2=0.30, p= 0.004), which is considered an indicator of flow stability. A macroinvertebrate index of sensitive taxa (the orders Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) to tolerant taxa (the family Chironomid) richness at the sampled streams declined with increases in percentages of sand (R2=0.22, p=0.008) and bankfull channel depth (R2=0.25, p=0.005) and decreases in flow stability (R2=0.43, p<0.0001), illustrating the important hydrologic links among urbanization and channel morphology, habitat, and macroinvertebrates in piedmont streams.

Comparison of methods for non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis: Case study using annual maximum daily precipitation in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Po-Chun; Wang, Yuan-Heng; You, Gene Jiing-Yun; Wei, Chih-Chiang

2017-02-01

Future climatic conditions likely will not satisfy stationarity assumption. To address this concern, this study applied three methods to analyze non-stationarity in hydrologic conditions. Based on the principle of identifying distribution and trends (IDT) with time-varying moments, we employed the parametric weighted least squares (WLS) estimation in conjunction with the non-parametric discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Our aim was to evaluate the applicability of non-parameter approaches, compared with traditional parameter-based methods. In contrast to most previous studies, which analyzed the non-stationarity of first moments, we incorporated second-moment analysis. Through the estimation of long-term risk, we were able to examine the behavior of return periods under two different definitions: the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence and the expected recurrence time. The proposed framework represents an improvement over stationary frequency analysis for the design of hydraulic systems. A case study was performed using precipitation data from major climate stations in Taiwan to evaluate the non-stationarity of annual maximum daily precipitation. The results demonstrate the applicability of these three methods in the identification of non-stationarity. For most cases, no significant differences were observed with regard to the trends identified using WLS, DWT, and EEMD. According to the results, a linear model should be able to capture time-variance in either the first or second moment while parabolic trends should be used with caution due to their characteristic rapid increases. It is also observed that local variations in precipitation tend to be overemphasized by DWT and EEMD. The two definitions provided for the concept of return period allows for ambiguous interpretation. With the consideration of non-stationarity, the return period is relatively small under the definition of expected recurrence time comparing to the estimation using the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence. However, the calculation of expected recurrence time is based on the assumption of perfect knowledge of long-term risk, which involves high uncertainty. When the risk is decreasing with time, the expected recurrence time will lead to the divergence of return period and make this definition inapplicable for engineering purposes.

Evaluation of airborne lidar elevation surfaces for propagation of coastal inundation: the importance of hydrologic connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poppenga, Sandra K.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2015-01-01

Detailed information about coastal inundation is vital to understanding dynamic and populated areas that are impacted by storm surge and flooding. To understand these natural hazard risks, lidar elevation surfaces are frequently used to model inundation in coastal areas. A single-value surface method is sometimes used to inundate areas in lidar elevation surfaces that are below a specified elevation value. However, such an approach does not take into consideration hydrologic connectivity between elevation grids cells resulting in inland areas that should be hydrologically connected to the ocean, but are not. Because inland areas that should drain to the ocean are hydrologically disconnected by raised features in a lidar elevation surface, simply raising the water level to propagate coastal inundation will lead to inundation uncertainties. We took advantage of this problem to identify hydrologically disconnected inland areas to point out that they should be considered for coastal inundation, and that a lidar-based hydrologic surface should be developed with hydrologic connectivity prior to inundation analysis. The process of achieving hydrologic connectivity with hydrologic-enforcement is not new, however, the application of hydrologically-enforced lidar elevation surfaces for improved coastal inundation mapping as approached in this research is innovative. In this article, we propagated a high-resolution lidar elevation surface in coastal Staten Island, New York to demonstrate that inland areas lacking hydrologic connectivity to the ocean could potentially be included in inundation delineations. For inland areas that were hydrologically disconnected, we evaluated if drainage to the ocean was evident, and calculated an area exceeding 11 ha (~0.11 km2) that could be considered in inundation delineations. We also assessed land cover for each inland area to determine the type of physical surfaces that would be potentially impacted if the inland areas were considered as part of a coastal inundation. A visual analysis indicated that developed, medium intensity and palustrine forested wetland land cover types would be impacted for those locations. This article demonstrates that hydrologic connectivity is an important factor to consider when inundating a lidar elevation surface. This information is needed for inundation monitoring and management in sensitive coastal regions.

Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2015-12-01

With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

A Comparison of One-Dimensional Hydrologic Models Using Soil Moisture Observations under Urban Irrigation in a Desert Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volo, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.; Martin, C. A.; Wang, Z.; Ruddell, B.

2012-12-01

Through the past several decades, rapid population growth in the arid American Southwest has dramatically changed patterns of plant-available water through municipal and residential irrigation systems that provide supplemental water to designed and managed urban landscape vegetation. Urban irrigation, including diversion of rainwater and addition of imported water, has thereby enabled the transformation of areas once covered by bare soil and low water-use, native desert plant species to large tracts of exotic, high water-use turf grass and shade trees. Despite the large percentage of residential water appropriated to irrigation purposes, models of urban hydrology often fail to include the impact that this anthropogenic input has on water, energy, and biomass conditions. This study utilizes two one-dimensional soil moisture models to examine the importance of representing different processes in a quantitative urban ecohydrology model under irrigation scenarios. Such processes include sub-daily energy fluxes, vertical redistribution of soil moisture, saturation- and infiltration-excess runoff mechanisms, seasonally variable irrigation scheduling, and soil moisture control on evapotranspiration rates. The analysis is informed by soil moisture observations from an experimental sensor network in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area. The network includes data from several different landscape and irrigation treatments representative of pre- and post-development conditions in the region. By interpreting soil moisture levels in terms of plant water stress, this study analyzes the effectiveness of urban irrigation practices in arid climates. Furthermore, by identifying the necessary hydrologic processes to represent in an urban ecohydrology model, our results inform future work in adapting a distributed hydrologic model to desert urban settings where irrigation plays a significant role in minimizing plant water stress. An appropriate model of water and energy balances, calibrated using local meteorological forcing, can facilitate discussions with water managers and homeowners regarding optimal irrigation frequency, volume, duration, and seasonality for individual landscapes, while also aiding in water-efficient landscape design for growing cities in desert regions.

Assessment of flow regime alterations over a spectrum of temporal scales using wavelet-based approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fu-Chun; Chang, Ching-Fu; Shiau, Jenq-Tzong

2015-05-01

The full range of natural flow regime is essential for sustaining the riverine ecosystems and biodiversity, yet there are still limited tools available for assessment of flow regime alterations over a spectrum of temporal scales. Wavelet analysis has proven useful for detecting hydrologic alterations at multiple scales via the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) series. The existing approach based on the global WPS (GWPS) ratio tends to be dominated by the rare high-power flows so that alterations of the more frequent low-power flows are often underrepresented. We devise a new approach based on individual deviations between WPS (DWPS) that are root-mean-squared to yield the global DWPS (GDWPS). We test these two approaches on the three reaches of the Feitsui Reservoir system (Taiwan) that are subjected to different classes of anthropogenic interventions. The GDWPS reveal unique features that are not detected with the GWPS ratios. We also segregate the effects of individual subflow components on the overall flow regime alterations using the subflow GDWPS. The results show that the daily hydropeaking waves below the reservoir not only intensified the flow oscillations at daily scale but most significantly eliminated subweekly flow variability. Alterations of flow regime were most severe below the diversion weir, where the residual hydropeaking resulted in a maximum impact at daily scale while the postdiversion null flows led to large hydrologic alterations over submonthly scales. The smallest impacts below the confluence reveal that the hydrologic alterations at scales longer than 2 days were substantially mitigated with the joining of the unregulated tributary flows, whereas the daily-scale hydrologic alteration was retained because of the hydropeaking inherited from the reservoir releases. The proposed DWPS approach unravels for the first time the details of flow regime alterations at these intermediate scales that are overridden by the low-frequency high-power flows when the long-term averaged GWPS are used.

The influence of drought on flow‐ecology relationships in Ozark Highland streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Dustin T.; Leasure, D. R.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2018-01-01

Drought and summer drying can have strong effects on abiotic and biotic components of stream ecosystems. Environmental flow‐ecology relationships may be affected by drought and drying, adding further uncertainty to the already complex interaction of flow with other environmental variables, including geomorphology and water quality.Environment–ecology relationships in stream communities in Ozark Highland streams, USA, were examined over two years with contrasting environmental conditions, a drought year (2012) and a flood year (2013). We analysed fish, crayfish and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages using two different approaches: (1) a multiple regression analysis incorporating predictor variables related to habitat, water quality, geomorphology and hydrology and (2) a canonical ordination procedure using only hydrologic variables in which forward selection was used to select predictors that were most related to our response variables.Reach‐scale habitat quality and geomorphology were found to be the most important influences on community structure, but hydrology was also important, particularly during the flood year. We also found substantial between‐year variation in environment–ecology relationships. Some ecological responses differed significantly between drought and flood years, while others remained consistent. We found that magnitude was the most important flow component overall, but that there was a shift in relative importance from low flow metrics during the drought year to average flow metrics during the flood year, and the specific metrics of importance varied markedly between assemblages and years.Findings suggest that understanding temporal variation in flow‐ecology relationships may be crucial for resource planning. While some relationships show temporal variation, others are consistent between years. Additionally, different kinds of hydrologic variables can differ greatly in terms of which assemblages they affect and how they affect them. Managers can address this complexity by focusing on relationships that are temporally stable and flow metrics that are consistently important across groups, such as flood frequency and flow variability.

Interests of long-term hydrogeological observatories for characterizing and modelling heterogeneous groundwater systems at multiple temporal and spatial scales: the example of Ploemeur, a crystalline rock aquifer (Brittany).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bour, Olivier; Longuervergne, Laurent; Le Borgne, Tanguy; Lavenant, Nicolas; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Schuite, Jonathan; Labasque, Thierry; Aquilina, Luc; Davy, Philippe

2017-04-01

Characterizing groundwater flows and surface interactions in heterogeneous groundwater systems such as crystalline fractured rock is often extremely complex. In particular, hydraulic properties are highly variable while groundwater chemical properties may vary both in space and time, especially due to the impact of groundwater abstraction. Here, we show the interest of hydrological observatories and long-term monitoring for characterizing hydrological processes occurring in a crystalline rock aquifer. We present results from the site of Ploemeur (French Brittany) that belongs to the network of hydrogeological sites H+ and the research infrastructure OZCAR, and where interdisciplinary and integrated research at multiple temporal and spatial scales has been developed for almost twenty years. This outstandingly heterogeneous crystalline rock aquifer is also used for groundwater supply since 1991. In particular, we show how cross-borehole flowmeter tests, pumping tests and a frequency domain analysis of groundwater levels allow quantifying the hydraulic properties of the aquifer at different scales. In addition, groundwater temperature evolution was used as an excellent tracer for characterizing groundwater flow. At the site scale, measurements of ground surface deformation through long-base tiltmeters provide robust estimates of aquifer storage and allow identifying the active structures, including those acting during recharge process. Finally, a numerical model of the watershed scale that combines hydraulic data and groundwater ages confirms the geometry of this complex aquifer and the consistency of the different datasets. In parallel, this hydrological observatory is also used for developing hydrogeophysical methods and to characterize groundwater transport and biogeochemical reactivity in the sub-surface. The Ploemeur hydrogeological observatory is a good example of the interest of focusing research activities on a site during long-term as it provides a thorough understanding of both hydrological and biogeochemical processes that can be extended to many heterogeneous aquifers.

LFSTAT - An R-Package for Low-Flow Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koffler, D.; Laaha, G.

2012-04-01

When analysing daily streamflow data focusing on low flow and drought, the state of the art is well documented in the Manual on Low-Flow Estimation and Prediction [1] published by the WMO. While it is clear what has to be done, it is not so clear how to preform the analysis and make the calculation as reproducible as possible. Our software solution expands the high preforming statistical open source software package R to analyse daily stream flow data focusing on low-flows. As command-line based programs are not everyone's preference, we also offer a plug-in for the R-Commander, an easy to use graphical user interface (GUI) to analyse data in R. Functionality includes estimation of the most important low-flow indices. Beside standardly used flow indices also BFI and Recession constants can be computed. The main applications of L-moment based Extreme value analysis and regional frequency analysis (RFA) are available. Calculation of streamflow deficits is another important feature. The most common graphics are prepared and can easily be modified according to the users preferences. Graphics include hydrographs for different periods, flexible streamflow deficit plots, baseflow visualisation, flow duration curves as well as double mass curves just to name a few. The package uses a S3-class called lfobj (low-flow objects). Once this objects are created, analysis can be preformed by mouse-click, and a script can be saved to make the analysis easy reproducible. At the moment we are offering implementation of all major methods proposed in the WMO manual on Low-flow Estimation and Predictions. Future plans include e.g. report export in odt-file using odf-weave. We hope to offer a tool to ease and structure the analysis of stream flow data focusing on low-flows and to make analysis transparent and communicable. The package is designed for hydrological research and water management practice, but can also be used in teaching students the first steps in low-flow hydrology.

Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT model in Hydrological Simulation of Chaohe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jie, M.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B. B.

2017-12-01

As a typical distributed hydrological model, the SWAT model also has a challenge in calibrating parameters and analysis their uncertainty. This paper chooses the Chaohe River Basin China as the study area, through the establishment of the SWAT model, loading the DEM data of the Chaohe river basin, the watershed is automatically divided into several sub-basins. Analyzing the land use, soil and slope which are on the basis of the sub-basins and calculating the hydrological response unit (HRU) of the study area, after running SWAT model, the runoff simulation values in the watershed are obtained. On this basis, using weather data, known daily runoff of three hydrological stations, combined with the SWAT-CUP automatic program and the manual adjustment method are used to analyze the multi-site calibration of the model parameters. Furthermore, the GLUE algorithm is used to analyze the parameters uncertainty of the SWAT model. Through the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty study of SWAT, the results indicate that the parameterization of the hydrological characteristics of the Chaohe river is successful and feasible which can be used to simulate the Chaohe river basin.

Shallow End Response from ATEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetrov, A.

2014-12-01

Different geological, hydrological, environmental and engineering targets are located shallow underground. The information collected with ATEM systems might be very useful for their study; although there are many deeper targets that the ATEM systems are traditionally used for. The idea to raise magnetic moment output and get deeper penetration response was one of the goals of ATEM systems development during the last decade. The shallow geology response was a trade for such systems, which sometimes were almost blind in the first hundred meter under surface. The possibility to achieve shallow end response from ATEM systems has become significant subject in last years. Several airborne TDEM systems got second higher frequency and lower magnetic moment signal to pick up shallow response together with deep one. Having a potential advantage such implementation raises complication and cost of the system. There's no need to receive 500 meter deep response when exploring shallow geology. P-THEM system having a compact size transmitter and relatively light weight is working on one base frequency at a time, but this frequency can be preset before a flight considering survey goals. A study of shallow geology response of the P-THEM system working on different base frequency has been conducted in 2014 in Ontario. The Alliston test area located in Southern Ontario has been flown with the P-THEM system working on base frequencies 30Hz and 90Hz. Results of the observations will be discussed in the presentation. The shallow end data can be used for mineral exploration applications and also for hydrological and environmental studies.

Damage caused by hydrological extremes in a region of southern Italy: comparison between the period 2002-2012 and the past century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Olga; Pasqua, A. Aurora

2013-04-01

The concept of extreme hydrological event should be seen in a relative way, depending on the region for which it is defined, the parameters and the type of data utilized to assess it, and mainly taking into account the length of the period basing on which it is assessed. Measured data concerning rainfall and river flow, which allow statistical analysis of numerical values and assessment of events frequency, can be available for different periods, according to both the study area and the country; nevertheless, the length of the measurement series rarely exceeds 100 years. Thus, the extrapolation to the future of events trend, frequency, seasonality are based on a relatively short and recent period and even the "magnitude" and the classification of "extreme events" can be biased by the length of the observation period. Thus these characteristics may substantially change if their assessment is based on a wider temporal window. Especially in un-gauged basins and concerning severest events, historical data cannot provide systematically measured parameters but they can supply proxy data which allow enlarging the observation period, permitting a better weighing of both recent and old events. The present research is based on the use of a wide historical database concerning phenomena as floods, flash floods and landslides triggered by extreme meteorological events in Calabria (Southern Italy) since 19th century. This database is made of approximately 11,000 records and it includes data coming from different sources as newspapers, archives of national and regional agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and information collected by interviewing both people involved and local administrators. The recent uploading of data concerning the effects caused in Calabria by these phenomena during the decade 2002-2012 allowed us to analyse a long and updated historical series of events. The aim is to compare -both in terms triggering rainfall and their effects- events magnitude and frequency characterising the last decade to those observed during past decades, even taking into account the lower data availability characterising older epochs. Using the huge amount of available data, an attempt to individuate the typical damage scenario for the study region is carried out, trying to highlight the trend of modifications affecting these events thorough the study period, in an evolutive perspective that can be useful to forecast tendencies of the hydrological risk on a regional basis.

Quantification of frequency-components contributions to the discharge of a karst spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taver, V.; Johannet, A.; Vinches, M.; Borrell, V.; Pistre, S.; Bertin, D.

2013-12-01

Karst aquifers represent important underground resources for water supplies, providing it to 25% of the population. Nevertheless such systems are currently underexploited because of their heterogeneity and complexity, which make work fields and physical measurements expensive, and frequently not representative of the whole aquifer. The systemic paradigm appears thus at a complementary approach to study and model karst aquifers in the framework of non-linear system analysis. Its input and output signals, namely rainfalls and discharge contain information about the function performed by the physical process. Therefore, improvement of knowledge about the karst system can be provided using time series analysis, for example Fourier analysis or orthogonal decomposition [1]. Another level of analysis consists in building non-linear models to identify rainfall/discharge relation, component by component [2]. In this context, this communication proposes to use neural networks to first model the rainfall-runoff relation using frequency components, and second to analyze the models, using the KnoX method [3], in order to quantify the importance of each component. Two different neural models were designed: (i) the recurrent model which implements a non-linear recurrent model fed by rainfalls, ETP and previous estimated discharge, (ii) the feed-forward model which implements a non-linear static model fed by rainfalls, ETP and previous observed discharges. The first model is known to better represent the rainfall-runoff relation; the second one to better predict the discharge based on previous discharge observations. KnoX method is based on a variable selection method, which simply considers values of parameters after the training without taking into account the non-linear behavior of the model during functioning. An amelioration of the KnoX method, is thus proposed in order to overcome this inadequacy. The proposed method, leads thus to both a hierarchization and a quantification of the input variables, here the frequency components, over output signal. Applied to the Lez karst aquifer, the combination of frequency decomposition and knowledge extraction improves knowledge on hydrological behavior. Both models and both extraction methods were applied and assessed using a fictitious reference model. Discussion is proposed in order to analyze efficiency of the methods compared to in situ measurements and tracing. [1] D. Labat et al. 'Rainfall-runoff relations for karst springs. Part II: continuous wavelet and discrete orthogonal multiresolution' In J of Hydrology, Vol. 238, 2000, pp. 149-178. [2] A. Johannet et al. 'Prediction of Lez Spring Discharge (Southern France) by Neural Networks using Orthogonal Wavelet Decomposition'.IJCNN Proceedings Brisbane 2012. [3] L. Kong A Siou et al. 'Modélisation hydrodynamique des karsts par réseaux de neurones : Comment dépasser la boîte noire. (Karst hydrodynamic modelling using artificial neural networks: how to surpass the black box ?)'. Proceedings of the 9th conference on limestone hydrogeology,2011 Besançon, France.

Modelling the effect of fire frequency on runoff and erosion in north-central Portugal using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Mohammadreza; Nunes, João Pedro; González Pelayo, Oscar; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

2017-04-01

Models can be valuable for foreseeing the hydrological effects of fires and to plan and execute post-fire management alternatives. In this study, the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) model was utilized to simulate runoff and soil erosion in recently burned maritime pine plantations with different fire regimes, in a wet Mediterranean area of north-central Portugal. The MMF model was adjusted for burned zones in order to accommodate seasonal patterns in runoff and soil erosion, attributed to changes in soil water repellency and vegetation recovery. The model was then assessed by applying it for a sum of 18 experimental micro-plots (0.25 m2) at 9 1x-burnt and 9 4x-burnt slopes, using both literature-based and calibrated parameters, with the collected data used to assess the robustness of each parameterization. The estimate of erosion was more exact than that of runoff, with a general Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.54. Slope angle and the soil's effective hydrological depth (which relies on upon vegetation and additionally crop cover) were found to be the primary parameters enhancing model results, and different hydrological depths were expected to separate between the two differentiating fire regimes. This relative analysis demonstrated that most existing benchmark parameters can be utilized to apply MMF in burnt pine regions with moderate severity to support post-fire management; however it also showed that further endeavours ought to concentrate on mapping soil depth and vegetation cover to enhance these simulations.

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

U.S./China Bilateral Symposium on Extraordinary Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, W.

Accurate appraisal of the risk of extreme floods has long been of concern to hydrologists and water resources managers in both the United States and China. In order to exchange information, assess current developments, and discuss further needs in extreme flood analysis, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Hydrology of the Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power of the People's Republic of China (PRC) held the Bilateral Symposium on the Analysis of Extraordinary Flood Events, October 14-18, 1985, in Nanjing, China. Co-convenors of the symposium were Marshall E. Moss (USGS) and Hua Shiqian (Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology). Liang Ruiju (East China Technical University of Water Resources) was executive secretary of the organizing committee. Participants included 23 U.S. delegates, 36 Chinese delegates, and five guests from other countries. Of the U.S. delegates, 13 were from federal agencies, seven were from universities, and three were private consultants. The U.S. National Science Foundation gave financial support to the nonfederal U.S. delegates. Major topics covered in the 52 papers presented included detection of historical floods and evaluation of the uncertainties in their peak discharges and times of occurrence,frequency analysis and design flood determination in the presence of extraordinary floods and historic floods, anduse of storm data in determining design storms and design floods, The symposium was followed by a 6-day study tour in central China, during which laboratories, field activities, and offices of various water resources agencies were visited and sites of documented historic floods on the Yangtze River and its tributaries were examined.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Detection of Hydrological changes of Wujiang River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, L.; Chen, Y.

2016-12-01

In the century our earth experienced a rapid environment changes due to strong human activities, which impactedthe earth'shydrology and water resources systems negatively, and causedsevere problems to the society, such as increased flood and drought risk, water pollution and ecosystem degradation. Understanding the variations of hydrological characteristics has important meaning to solve the problem of hydrology and water resources and maintain sustainable development of river basin water resources.This paper takesWujiangriveras an example,which is a typical medium watershedaffected by human activities seriously in southern China.Using the methods of Mann-Kendall test and serial cluster analysis, this paper studies the characteristics and laws of historical hydrological process inWujiang river, detectsthe impact of changing environment to watershed hydrological processes, based on the observed hydrological data of 36 years from 1980 to 2015 in three representative hydrological stationsnamedFenshi,Chixi and Pingshi. The results show that the annual runoffandannual precipitation has some kind of changes.

Modelling of in-stream nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations using different sampling strategies for calibration data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jomaa, Seifeddine; Jiang, Sanyuan; Yang, Xiaoqiang; Rode, Michael

2016-04-01

It is known that a good evaluation and prediction of surface water pollution is mainly limited by the monitoring strategy and the capability of the hydrological water quality model to reproduce the internal processes. To this end, a compromise sampling frequency, which can reflect the dynamical behaviour of leached nutrient fluxes responding to changes in land use, agriculture practices and point sources, and appropriate process-based water quality model are required. The objective of this study was to test the identification of hydrological water quality model parameters (nitrogen and phosphorus) under two different monitoring strategies: (1) regular grab-sampling approach and (2) regular grab-sampling with additional monitoring during the hydrological events using automatic samplers. First, the semi-distributed hydrological water quality HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) model was successfully calibrated (1994-1998) for discharge (NSE = 0.86), nitrate-N (lowest NSE for nitrate-N load = 0.69), particulate phosphorus and soluble phosphorus in the Selke catchment (463 km2, central Germany) for the period 1994-1998 using regular grab-sampling approach (biweekly to monthly for nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations). Second, the model was successfully validated during the period 1999-2010 for discharge, nitrate-N, particulate-phosphorus and soluble-phosphorus (lowest NSE for soluble phosphorus load = 0.54). Results, showed that when additional sampling during the events with random grab-sampling approach was used (period 2011-2013), the hydrological model could reproduce only the nitrate-N and soluble phosphorus concentrations reasonably well. However, when additional sampling during the hydrological events was considered, the HYPE model could not represent the measured particulate phosphorus. This reflects the importance of suspended sediment during the hydrological events increasing the concentrations of particulate phosphorus. The HYPE model could reproduce the total phosphorus during the period 2011-2013 only when the sediment transport-related model parameters was re-identified again considering the automatic sampling during the high-flow conditions.

Regional skew for California, and flood frequency for selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea; Stedinger, J.R.; Barth, N.A.; Knifong, Donna L.; Ferris, J.C.

2011-01-01

Improved flood-frequency information is important throughout California in general and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin in particular, because of an extensive network of flood-control levees and the risk of catastrophic flooding. A key first step in updating flood-frequency information is determining regional skew. A Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) regression method was used to derive a regional-skew model based on annual peak-discharge data for 158 long-term (30 or more years of record) stations throughout most of California. The desert areas in southeastern California had too few long-term stations to reliably determine regional skew for that hydrologically distinct region; therefore, the desert areas were excluded from the regional skew analysis for California. Of the 158 long-term stations used to determine regional skew, 145 have minimally regulated annual-peak discharges, and 13 stations are dam sites for which unregulated peak discharges were estimated from unregulated daily maximum discharge data furnished by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. The Bayesian GLS regression method previously developed was modified because of the large cross correlations among concurrent recorded peak discharges in California and the use of censored data and historical flood information with the new expected moments algorithm. In particular, to properly account for these cross-correlation problems and develop a suitable regression model and regression diagnostics, a combination of Bayesian weighted least squares and generalized least squares regression was adopted. This new methodology identified a nonlinear function relating regional skew to mean basin elevation. The regional skew values ranged from -0.62 for a mean basin elevation of zero to 0.61 for a mean basin elevation of 11,000 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow with rain, which increases with increased elevation. The equivalent record length for the new regional skew ranges from 52 to 65 years of record, depending upon mean basin elevation. The old regional skew map in Bulletin 17B, published by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982), reported an equivalent record length of only 17 years. The newly developed regional skew relation for California was used to update flood frequency for the 158 sites used in the regional skew analysis as well as 206 selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin. For these sites, annual-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years were determined on the basis of data through water year 2006. The expected moments algorithm was used for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods at gaged sites by using regional skew values and using the basic approach outlined in Bulletin

Climate change and precipitation evolution in Ifran region (Middle Atlas of Morocco).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddad, H.; Bakhat, M.; Damnati, B.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and extreme climatic events pose significant risks to human beings and generate terrestrial ecosystem dysfunctions. These effects are usually amplified by an inappropriate use of the existing natural resources. To face the new context of climate change, a rational and efficient use of these resources - particularly, water resource - on a global and regional scale must be implemented. Annual precipitation provides an overall amount of water, the assessment and management of this water is complicated due to the spatio-temporal variation of disturbance (aridity, rainfall intensity, length of dry season...). Therefore, understanding rainfall behavior would at least help to plan interventions to manage this resource and protect ecosystems that depend on it. Time-series analysis has become one of the major tools in hydrology. It is used for building mathematical models to detect trends and shifts in hydrologic records and to forecast hydrologic events. In this paper we present a case study of IFRAN region, which is situated in the Middle Atlas Mountains in Morocco. This study deals with modeling and forecasting rainfall time series using monthly rainfall data for the period 1970-2005. To determine the seasonal properties of this series we used first the Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model, and we expended the analysis with the Hylleberg-Engle-Granger-Yoo (HEGY) tests. The results of time series modeling showed the presence of significant deterministic seasonal pattern and no seasonal unit roots. This means that the series is stationary in all frequencies. The model can be used to predict rainfall in IFRAN and near sites; this prediction is not without interest in so far as any information about these random variables could provide a contribution to the researches made in domain for fighting against climate change. It doesn't give solutions to eradicate the precipitation variability phenomenon, but just to adapt to it.

Using Constraints from Satellite Gravimetry to Study Meteorological Excitations of the Chandler Wobble for an Earth Model with Frequency-dependent Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Li, J.; Ray, J.; Cheng, M.; Chen, J.; Wilson, C. R.

2015-12-01

What maintain(s) the damping Chandler wobble (CW) is still under debate though meteorological excitations are now more preferred. However, controversial results have been obtained: Gross [2000] and Gross et al. [2003] suggested oceanic processes are more efficient to excite the CW than atmospheric ones during 1980 - 2000. Brzezinski and Nastula [2002] concluded that their contributions are almost the same, and they can only provide ~80% of the power needed to maintain the CW observed during 1985 - 1996. Polar motion excitations involve not only the perturbations within the Earth system (namely, mass redistributions and motions of relative to the mantle), but also the Earth's responses to those perturbations (namely, the rheology of the Earth). Chen et al. [2013a] developed an improved theory for polar motion excitation taking into account the Earth's frequency-dependent responses, of which the polar motion transfer functions are ~10% higher than those of previous theories around the CW band. Chen et al. [2013b] compared the geophysical excitations derived from various global atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological models (NCEP, ECCO, ERA40, ERAinterim and ECMWF operational products), and found significant and broad-band discrepancies for models released by different institutes. In addition, the atmosphere, ocean and hydrology models are usually developed in a somewhat independent manner and thus the global (atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological) mass is not conserved [e.g., Yan and Chao, 2012]. Therefore, the matter-term excitations estimated from those models are problematic. In one word, it is unlikely to obtain reliable conclusions on meteorological excitations of CW on the basis of the original meteorological models. Satellite gravimetry can measure mass transportations caused by atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological processes much more accurately than those provided by the original meteorological models, and can force the global (atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological) mass to be conserved. Therefore, it might be promising to obtain better understanding on meteorological excitations of CW by assimilating the time-variable gravity data from GRACE and SLR to improve the matter terms of the meteorological excitations, and adopting the new polar motion theory of Chen et al. [2013a].

Quantifying uncertainty in future floods and drought conditions in the Northeastern United States using regionally downscaled climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddique, R.; Wu, C.; Karmalkar, A.; Bradley, R. S.; Palmer, R. N.

2017-12-01

Northeastern region (NER) of the United States (US) has been projected to be a place where climate change can have the most severe impacts. These impacts include, but are not limited to, increases in the following: extreme precipitation events, temperature, flood magnitudes, flood frequencies, droughts, and sea level rise. In this study, we estimate the frequency of hydrological extremes under different climate change scenarios using regionally downscaled climate projections from a limited number of selected models from the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The models are chosen to minimize the loss of key climate information relevant to the NER. Precipitation and temperature from the selected models are forced into a distributed hydrological model called Hydrology Laboratory - Research Distributed Hydrological Model (HL-RDHM) to obtain streamflows for two different time regimes, near-term (20-50 years out) and long-term (50-80 years out). For this, two climate emission scenarios will be considered: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impacts of the climate projections on the streamflows are then evaluated across different watershed scales in the NER. Among different metrics, we employ: 1) Flood Events - return period of 1 year, 10 year, 20 year, 50 year, and 100 year flood events and 2) Drought Events -low flow events associated with the 7-day 10 year low flow, number of days per month that will be below the historic monthly average, number of days per month that will be below the 25 percentile monthly historic average, changes in the 30-day and 60-day cumulative summer flows, and the timing and magnitude of spring run-off. For estimates of the climate impacts on low and high flows, only the unregulated watersheds are taken into consideration. Ensembles of streamflows obtained by forcing different climate projections are used to quantify and account for the associated uncertainties. Thus, the outcomes of this study are expected to guide regional decision makers on potential impacts of climate change on hydrological extreme events and water resources across different spatial scales within NER of the US.

A multidisciplinary investigation of groundwater fluctuations and their control on river chemistry - Insights from river dissolved concentrations and Li isotopes during flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuessner, M.; Bouchez, J.; Dangeard, M.; Bodet, L.; Thiesson, J.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Frick, D. A.; Grard, N.; Guérin, R.; Domergue, J. M.; Gaillardet, J.

2017-12-01

Water flow exerts a strong control on weathering reactions in the Critical Zone (CZ). The relationships between hydrology and river chemistry have been widely studied for the past decades [1]. Solute export responds strongly to storm events [2] and investigating the concentration and isotope composition of trace elements in river catchments can advance our understanding of the processes governing water-rock interactions and provide information on the water flow paths during these "hot moments". Especially, lithium (Li) and its isotopes are sensitive to the balance between mineral dissolution and precipitation in the subsurface and therefore, a powerful tool to characterize the response of chemical weathering to hydrology [3]. Hence, high-frequency stream chemistry yields valuable insight into the hydrological processes within the catchment during "hot moments". This study focuses on a CZ Observatory (OHMCV, part of French Research Infrastructure OZCAR). The granitic catchment Sapine (0.54 km2, southern France) is afflicted by big rain events and therefore, it is an appropriate location to study stormflows. Here we combine results from high-frequency stream water sampling during rain events with time-lapse seismic imaging to monitor the changes in aquifer properties [4]. The relationships between concentrations and discharge indicate differential responses of dissolved elements to the hydrological forcing. Especially, systematic changes are observed for Li and its isotopes as a function of water discharge, suggesting maximum secondary mineral formation at intermediate discharge. We suggest that Li dynamics are chiefly influenced by the depth at which water is flowing with, e.g. dissolution of primary minerals in deeper groundwater flows, and water-secondary mineral interaction at shallower depths. The combination of elemental concentrations and Li isotopes in river dissolved load tracing chemical weathering, with hydrogeophysical methods mapping water flows and pools, provides us with a time-resolved image of the CZ, improving our knowledge of the impact of hydrological changes on the chemical mass budgets in catchments. [1] Maher et al. (2011), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. [2] Kirchner et al. (2010), Hydrol. Processes. [3] Liu et al. (2015), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. [4] see poster by M. Dangeard et al.

The Water Cycle from Space: Use of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology and Water Resource Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laymon, Charles; Blankenship, Clay; Khan, Maudood; Limaye, Ashutosh; Hornbuckle, Brian; Rowlandson, Tracy

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews how our understanding of the water cycle is enhanced by our use of satellite data, and how this informs land surface hydrology and water resource management. It reviews how NASA's current and future satellite missions will provide Earth system data of unprecedented breadth, accuracy and utility for hydrologic analysis.

Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

Treesearch

S. Wang; Z. Zhang; G. Sun; P. Strauss; J. Guo; Y. Tang; A. Yao

2012-01-01

Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped...

Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.

2017-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

National Mapping of Wetland Connectivity | Science Inventory ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Connectivity has become a major focus of hydrological and ecological studies. Connectivity influences fluxes between landscape elements, while isolation reduces flows between elements. Thus connectivity can be an important characteristic controlling ecosystem services. Hydrologic connectivity is particularly significant, since movement of chemical constituents and biota flows are often associated with water flow. While wetlands have many important on-site functions, the degree to which they are connected to other ecosystems is a controlling influence on the effect these waters have on the larger landscape. Specifically, wetlands with high connectivity can serve as sources (e.g., net exporters of dissolved carbon), while those with low connectivity can function as sinks (e.g., net importers of suspended sediments). Here we focus on so-called “geographically isolated wetlands” (GIWs), or wetlands that are completely surrounded by uplands. While these wetlands normally lack surface water connections, they can be hydrologically connected to downstream waters through intermittent surface flow or groundwater. To help quantify connectivity of GIWs with downstream waters, we developed a system to classify GIWs based on type, magnitude, and frequency of hydrologic connectivity. We determine type (overland, shallow groundwater, or deep groundwater connectivity) by considering soil and bedrock permeability. For magnitude, we developed indices to represent tra

Quantifying the impact of Teleconnections on Hydrologic Regimes in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change is being alleged to have led to the increased frequency of extreme flooding events and the resulting damages are severe, especially where the flood-plain population densities are higher. Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on improving real-time flood forecasting models. Recent studies show that, in the state of Texas, extreme regional floods are actually triggered by abruptly higher precipitation intensities. Such intensities are further driven by sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies, defined by certain patterns of teleconnections. In this study, climate variability is defined on the basis of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related teleconnections: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Hydrologic extremes will be modeled using probabilistic distributions. Leave-One-Out-Test (LOOT) will be employed to address the outliers in the extremes, and to eventually obtain the robust correlation coefficient. The variation in the effect of most correlated teleconnection with respect to hydrologic attributes will be investigated for the entire state. This study will attempt to identify potential teleconnection inputs for data-driven hydrologic models under varying climatic conditions.

Enhanced hydrological extremes in the western United States under global warming through the lens of water vapor wave activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Jian; Xue, Daokai; Gao, Yang

Understanding how regional hydrological extremes would respond to warming is a grand challenge to the community of climate change research. To address this challenge, we construct an analysis framework based on column integrated water vapor (CWV) wave activity to diagnose the wave component of the hydrological cycle that contributes to hydrological extremes. By applying the analysis to the historical and future climate projections from the CMIP5 models, we found that the wet-versus-dry disparity of daily net precipitation along a zonal band can increase at a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate due to the enhanced stirring length of wave activity at the polewardmore » flank of the mean storm track. The local variant of CWV wave activity reveals the unique characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in terms of their transport function, enhanced mixing and hydrological cycling rate (HC). Under RCP8.5, the local moist wave activity increases by ~40% over the northeastern Pacific by the end of the 21st century, indicating more ARs hitting the west coast, giving rise to a ~20% increase in the related hydrological extremes - $ despite a weakening of the local HC.« less

21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Nino teleconnection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Greenhouse gas induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration, both of which imply a decline in surface ...

Multi-index evaluation of future drought and climate extreme occurrence in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM ...

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

PubMed Central

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.; Clark, Douglas B.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M.; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M.; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty. PMID:24344266

Improved hydrological modeling using AGWA; incorporation of different management practices in hydrological modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vithanage, J.; Miller, S. N.; Paige, G. B.; Liu, T.

2017-12-01

We present a novel way to simulate the effects of rangeland management decisions in a GIS-based hydrologic modeling toolkit. We have implemented updates to the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) in which a landscape can be broken into management units (e.g., high intensity grazing, low intensity grazing, fire management, and unmanaged), each of which is assigned a different hydraulic conductivity (Ks) parameter in KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2). These updates are designed to provide modeling support to land managers tasked with rangeland watershed management planning and/or monitoring, and evaluation of water resources management. Changes to hydrologic processes and resulting hydrographs and sedigraphs are simulated within the AGWA framework. Case studies are presented in which a user selects various management scenarios and design storms, and the model identifies areas that become susceptible to change as a consequence of management decisions. The baseline (unmanaged) scenario is built using commonly available GIS data, after which the watershed is subdivided into management units. We used an array of design storms with various return periods and frequencies to evaluate the impact of management practices while changing the scale of watershed. Watershed parameters governing interception, infiltration, and surface runoff were determined with the aid of literature published on research studies carried out in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeast Arizona. We observed varied, but significant changes in hydrological responses (runoff) with different management practices as well with varied scales of watersheds. Results show that the toolkit can be used to quantify potential hydrologic change as a result of unitized land use decision-making.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

PubMed

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Development of a new IHA method for impact assessment of climate change on flow regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tao; Cui, Tong; Xu, Chong-Yu; Ciais, Philippe; Shi, Pengfei

2017-09-01

The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) based on 33 parameters in five dimensions (flow magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and change rate) have been widely used in evaluation of hydrologic alteration in river systems. Yet, inter-correlation seriously exists amongst those parameters, therefore constantly underestimates or overestimates actual hydrological changes. Toward the end, a new method (Representative-IHA, RIHA) is developed by removing repetitions based on Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) algorithm. RIHA is testified in evaluating effects of future climate change on hydro-ecology in the Niger River of Africa. Future flows are projected using three watershed hydrological models forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Results show that: (1) RIHA is able to eliminate self-correlations amongst IHA indicators and identify the dominant characteristics of hydrological alteration in the Upper Niger River, (2) March streamflow, September streamflow, December streamflow, 30-day annual maximum, low pluses duration and fall rates tends to increase over the period 2010-2099, while July streamflow and 90-day annual minimum streamflow shows decrease, (3) the Niger River will undergo moderate flow alteration under RCP8.5 in 2050s and 2080s and low alteration other scenarios, (4) future flow alteration may induce increase water temperatures, reduction dissolved oxygen and food resources. Consequently, aquatic biodiversity and fish community of Upper Niger River would become more vulnerable in the future. The new method enables more scientific evaluation for multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration under the context of climate change.

An approach to quantum-computational hydrologic inverse analysis

DOE PAGES

O'Malley, Daniel

2018-05-02

Making predictions about flow and transport in an aquifer requires knowledge of the heterogeneous properties of the aquifer such as permeability. Computational methods for inverse analysis are commonly used to infer these properties from quantities that are more readily observable such as hydraulic head. We present a method for computational inverse analysis that utilizes a type of quantum computer called a quantum annealer. While quantum computing is in an early stage compared to classical computing, we demonstrate that it is sufficiently developed that it can be used to solve certain subsurface flow problems. We utilize a D-Wave 2X quantum annealermore » to solve 1D and 2D hydrologic inverse problems that, while small by modern standards, are similar in size and sometimes larger than hydrologic inverse problems that were solved with early classical computers. Our results and the rapid progress being made with quantum computing hardware indicate that the era of quantum-computational hydrology may not be too far in the future.« less

An approach to quantum-computational hydrologic inverse analysis.

PubMed

O'Malley, Daniel

2018-05-02

Making predictions about flow and transport in an aquifer requires knowledge of the heterogeneous properties of the aquifer such as permeability. Computational methods for inverse analysis are commonly used to infer these properties from quantities that are more readily observable such as hydraulic head. We present a method for computational inverse analysis that utilizes a type of quantum computer called a quantum annealer. While quantum computing is in an early stage compared to classical computing, we demonstrate that it is sufficiently developed that it can be used to solve certain subsurface flow problems. We utilize a D-Wave 2X quantum annealer to solve 1D and 2D hydrologic inverse problems that, while small by modern standards, are similar in size and sometimes larger than hydrologic inverse problems that were solved with early classical computers. Our results and the rapid progress being made with quantum computing hardware indicate that the era of quantum-computational hydrology may not be too far in the future.

An approach to quantum-computational hydrologic inverse analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Malley, Daniel

Making predictions about flow and transport in an aquifer requires knowledge of the heterogeneous properties of the aquifer such as permeability. Computational methods for inverse analysis are commonly used to infer these properties from quantities that are more readily observable such as hydraulic head. We present a method for computational inverse analysis that utilizes a type of quantum computer called a quantum annealer. While quantum computing is in an early stage compared to classical computing, we demonstrate that it is sufficiently developed that it can be used to solve certain subsurface flow problems. We utilize a D-Wave 2X quantum annealermore » to solve 1D and 2D hydrologic inverse problems that, while small by modern standards, are similar in size and sometimes larger than hydrologic inverse problems that were solved with early classical computers. Our results and the rapid progress being made with quantum computing hardware indicate that the era of quantum-computational hydrology may not be too far in the future.« less

Hydrological analysis in R: Topmodel and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, W.; Reusser, D.

2011-12-01

R is quickly gaining popularity in the hydrological sciences community. The wide range of statistical and mathematical functionality makes it an excellent tool for data analysis, modelling and uncertainty analysis. Topmodel was one of the first hydrological models being implemented as an R package and distributed through R's own distribution network CRAN. This facilitated pre- and postprocessing of data such as parameter sampling, calculation of prediction bounds, and advanced visualisation. However, apart from these basic functionalities, the package did not use many of the more advanced features of the R environment, especially from R's object oriented functionality. With R's increasing expansion in arenas such as high performance computing, big data analysis, and cloud services, we revisit the topmodel package, and use it as an example of how to build and deploy the next generation of hydrological models. R provides a convenient environment and attractive features to build and couple hydrological - and in extension other environmental - models, to develop flexible and effective data assimilation strategies, and to take the model beyond the individual computer by linking into cloud services for both data provision and computing. However, in order to maximise the benefit of these approaches, it will be necessary to adopt standards and ontologies for model interaction and information exchange. Some of those are currently being developed, such as the OGC web processing standards, while other will need to be developed.

The potential of historical hydrology in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetter, Oliver

2017-11-01

Historical hydrology is based on data derived from historical written, pictorial and epigraphic documentary sources. It lies at the interface between hydrology and environmental history, using methodologies from both disciplines basically with the goal of significantly extending the instrumental measurement period with experience from the pre-instrumental past. Recently this field of research has gained increased recognition as a tool to improve current flood risk estimations when EU guidelines regulated by law the quantitative consideration of previous floods.1 Awareness to consider pre-instrumental experience in flood risk analysis seems to have risen at the level of local and federal authorities in Switzerland as well. The 2011 Fukushima catastrophe probably fostered this rethinking process, when pressure from the media, society and politics as well as the regulations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced the authorities to reassess the current flood risk analysis for Swiss nuclear power plants. In 2015 a historical hydrological study was commissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) to assess the magnitudes of pre-instrumental Aare River flood discharges, including the most important tributaries (the Saane, Emme, Reuss and Limmat rivers). The results of the historical hydrological study serve now as the basis for the main study, EXAR (commissioned under the lead of FOEN in cooperation with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), and the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)), which combines historical and climatological analysis with statistical approaches and mathematical models with the goal of better understanding the hazards and possible interactions that can be caused by extreme flood events. In a second phase the catchment of the River Rhine will be targeted as well. More recently several local historical hydrological studies of smaller catchments have been requested by the responsible local authorities. The course for further publicly requested historical hydrological analysis seems thus to have been set. This paper therefore intends to discuss the potential of historical hydrological analysis, with a focus on the specific situation in Switzerland. 1Guideline 2007/60/EG of the European Parliament and Council from 23 October 2007 on assessment and management of flood risks, Official Journal of the European Union, L 288, 27-34, Brussels, 2007.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Classifying low flow hydrological regimes at a regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkby, M. J.; Gallart, F.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Irvine, B. J.; Froebrich, J.; Lo Porto, A.; de Girolamo, A.; Mirage Team

2011-12-01

The paper uses a simple water balance model that partitions the precipitation between actual evapotranspiration, quick flow and delayed flow, and has sufficient complexity to capture the essence of climate and vegetation controls on this partitioning. Using this model, monthly flow duration curves have been constructed from climate data across Europe to address the relative frequency of ecologically critical low flow stages in semi-arid rivers, when flow commonly persists only in disconnected pools in the river bed. The hydrological model is based on a dynamic partitioning of precipitation to estimate water available for evapotranspiration and plant growth and for residual runoff. The duration curve for monthly flows has then been analysed to give an estimate of bankfull flow based on recurrence interval. Arguing from observed ratios of cross-sectional areas at flood and low flows, hydraulic geometry suggests that disconnected flow under "pool" conditions is approximately 0.1% of bankfull flow. Flow duration curves define a measure of bankfull discharge on the basis of frequency. The corresponding frequency for pools is then read from the duration curve, using this (0.1%) ratio to estimate pool discharge from bank full discharge. The flow duration curve then provides an estimate of the frequency of poorly connected pool conditions, corresponding to this discharge, that constrain survival of river-dwelling arthropods and fish. The methodology has here been applied across Europe at 15 km resolution, and the potential is demonstrated for applying the methodology under alternative climatic scenarios.

Comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin during the period 1960-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, K.; Wu, C.; Hu, B.; Niu, J.

2017-12-01

Drought is one of the major natural hazards that can have devastating impacts on the regional environment, agriculture, and water resources. Previous studies have conducted the assessment of historic changes in meteorological drought over various regional scales but rarely considered hydrological drought due to limited hydrological observations. Here, we use a long-term (1960-2012) gridded hydro-meteorological data to present a comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Pearl River basin in southern China using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized runoff index (SRI). The variation in SPI and SRI at four different timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month) is investigated using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and continuous wavelet transform (CWT). The results indicate that the correlation between SPI and SRI is strong over the Pearl River basin and tends to be stronger at the longer timescale. Meanwhile, the periodic oscillation pattern of SPI becomes more consistent with that of SRI with the increased timescale. The SPI can be used as a substitute for SRI to represent the hydrological drought at the long-term scale. Overall there is a noticeably wetting trend mainly in the eastern parts and a significant drying trend mainly in the western regions and the downstream area of the Pearl River basin. The variability of meteorological drought is significant mainly in the eastern and western regions, while the variability of hydrological drought tends to be larger mainly in the western region. CWT analysis indicates a period of 0.75-7 years in both meteorological and hydrological droughts during the period 1960-2012 in the study region.

The Importance of Hydrological Signature and Its Recurring Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendi, D.; Marwan, N.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Temporal changes in hydrology are known to be challenging to detect and attribute due to multiple drivers that include complex processes that are non-stationary and highly variable. These drivers, such as human-induced climate change, natural climate variability, implementation of flood defense, river training, and land use change, could impact variably on space-time scales and influence or mask each other. Besides, data depicting these drivers are often not available. One conventional approach of analyzing the change is based on discrete points of magnitude (e.g. the frequency of recurring extreme discharge) and often linearly quantified and hence do not reveal the potential change in the hydrological process. Moreover, discharge series are often subject to measurement errors, such as rating curve error especially in the case of flood peaks where observation are derived through extrapolation. In this study, the system dynamics inferred from the hydrological signature (i.e. the shape of hydrograph) is being emphasized. One example is to see if certain flood dynamics (instead of flood peak) in the recent years, had also occurred in the past (or rather extraordinary), and if so what is its recurring rate and if there had been a shift in its occurrence in time or seasonality (e.g. earlier snow melt dominant flood). The utilization of hydrological signature here is extended beyond those of classical hydrology such as base flow index, recession and rising limb slope, and time to peak. It is in fact all these characteristics combined i.e. from the start until the end of the hydrograph. Recurrence plot is used as a method to quantify and visualize the recurring hydrological signature through its phase space trajectories, and usually in the order of dimension above 2. Such phase space trajectories are constructed by embedding the time series into a series of variables (i.e. number of dimension) corresponding to the time delay. Since the method is rather novel in hydrological community, the study presents an overview and a guideline to the method with an application example on analyzing the change of hydrological signature and discussion of its benefits and flaws.

Hydro-gravimetry in West-Africa: First results from the Djougou (Benin) superconducting gravimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hector, Basile; Hinderer, Jacques; Séguis, Luc; Boy, Jean-Paul; Calvo, Marta; Descloitres, Marc; Rosat, Séverine; Galle, Sylvie; Riccardi, Umberto

2014-10-01

The increasing number of hydro-gravimetry studies proves the rising interest of the hydrology community toward this monitoring method. The accuracy of superconducting gravimeters (SG) potentially allows the retrieval of small water storage changes (WSC) down to a few millimeters of equivalent water thickness. However, the importance of corrections applied to SG data to achieve such a precision in gravity residuals should be recalled. The Djougou permanent gravity station presented in this paper and located in northern Benin, West-Africa, provides a good opportunity to review these considerations. This station is equipped since July 2010 with the superconducting gravimeter SG-060 aimed at deriving WSC at different time-scales, daily to inter-annual. In this area, WSC are (1) part of the control system for evapotranspiration (ET) process, a key variable of the West-African monsoon cycle and (2) the state variable for resource management, a critical issue in storage-poor hard rock basement contexts such as in northern Benin. The potential for deriving WSC from time-lapse gravity data partly depends on environmental features such as topography and the instrument shelter. Therefore, this issue is addressed first, with the background idea that such sensitivity analysis should be undertaken before setting up any new instrument. In Djougou, local topography is quite flat leading to a theoretical straightforward relationship between gravity changes and WSC, close to the standard Bouguer value. However, the shelter plays a significant masking role, which is the principal limitation to the retrieval of fast hydrological processes such as ET following a rain event. Several issues concerning classical gravity corrections are also addressed in the paper. These include gap-filling procedures during rain-events and drift estimates for short time series. Special attention is provided to atmospheric corrections, and different approaches are tested: a simple scalar admittance, a filtered scalar admittance, a frequency-dependent admittance and direct atmospheric loading calculations. It is shown that the physically based approach of direct loading calculations performs better in both residual minimization and ET retrieval. Moreover, non-local hydrological effects are investigated and account for about 20% of the gravity residuals. Finally, gravity residuals are briefly analyzed at two distinct time scales: rapid (up to a few days) and seasonal. At the rapid time-scale, it is shown that ET retrieval is hardly achievable given shelter size and state-of-the-art atmospheric corrections. Still, mean values retrieved from this study are in accordance with known values of potential ET and lateral flow. Direct comparison of gravity changes with hydrological data (neutron probe monitoring and water table levels) show some discrepancies, particularly for the hydrological year of 2011, for which all hydrological data show a deficit, but SG and FG5 data do not. This preliminary analysis both provides a basis and call for further hydro-gravity modeling, to comprehensively investigate the water-cycle at the Djougou station.

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.

2014-01-01

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions to a simulated record of unaltered streamflow. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the persistence of hydrologic measurements from month to month for the prediction of developing hydrologic drought conditions and quantitatively indicates which hydrologic variables may be used to indicate the onset of hydrologic drought conditions. Rank correlation analysis also indicates the potential use of each variable for estimating the monthly minimum unaltered flow at a site of interest for use in the drought-projection analysis. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS is done by calculating Spearman’s rho for paired samples and the 95-percent confidence limits of this rho value. Rank correlation analysis can be done by using precipitation, groundwater levels, measured streamflows, and estimated unaltered streamflows. Serial correlation analysis, which indicates relations between current and future values, can be done for a single site. Cross correlation analysis, which indicates relations among current values at one site and current and future values at a second site, also can be done. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the risk for being in a hydrologic drought condition during the current month and the five following months with and without pumping. Drought-projection analysis also indicates the potential effectiveness of water-conservation methods for mitigating the effect of withdrawals in the coming months on the basis of the amount of depletion caused by different pumping plans and on the risk of unaltered flows being below streamflow targets. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS is done with Monte Carlo methods by using the position analysis method. In this method the initial value of estimated unaltered streamflows is calculated by correlation to a measured hydrologic variable (monthly precipitation, groundwater levels, or streamflows from an index station identified with the rank correlation analysis). Then a pseudorandom number generator is used to create 251 six-month-long flow traces by using a bootstrap method. Serial correlation of the estimated unaltered monthly minimum streamflows determined from the rank correlation analysis is preserved within each flow trace. The sample of unaltered streamflows indicates the risk of being below flow targets in the coming months under simulated natural conditions (without historic withdrawals). The streamflow-depletion algorithms are then used to estimate risks of flow being below targets if selected pumping plans are used. This report also describes the implementation of the HyDroDSS. The HyDroDSS was developed as a Microsoft Access® database application to facilitate storage, handling, and use of hydrologic datasets with a simple graphical user interface. The program is implemented in the database by using the Visual Basic for Applications® (VBA) programming language. Program source code for the analytical techniques is provided in the HyDroDSS and in electronic text files accompanying this report. Program source code for the graphical user interface and for data-handling code, which is specific to Microsoft Access® and the HyDroDSS, is provided in the database. An installation package with a run-time version of the software is available with this report for potential users who do not have a compatible copy of Microsoft Access®. Administrative rights are needed to install this version of the HyDroDSS. A case study, to demonstrate the use of HyDroDSS and interpretation of results for a site of interest, is detailed for the USGS streamgage on the Hunt River (station 01117000) near East Greenwich in central Rhode Island. The Hunt River streamgage was used because it has a long record of streamflow and is in a well-studied basin with a substantial amount of hydrologic and water-use data including groundwater pumping for municipal water supply.

Assessment of parameter uncertainty in hydrological model using a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Junlong; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Chen, Xi; Bao, Anming

2016-07-01

Without a realistic assessment of parameter uncertainty, decision makers may encounter difficulties in accurately describing hydrologic processes and assessing relationships between model parameters and watershed characteristics. In this study, a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-based multilevel-factorial-analysis (MCMC-MFA) method is developed, which can not only generate samples of parameters from a well constructed Markov chain and assess parameter uncertainties with straightforward Bayesian inference, but also investigate the individual and interactive effects of multiple parameters on model output through measuring the specific variations of hydrological responses. A case study is conducted for addressing parameter uncertainties in the Kaidu watershed of northwest China. Effects of multiple parameters and their interactions are quantitatively investigated using the MCMC-MFA with a three-level factorial experiment (totally 81 runs). A variance-based sensitivity analysis method is used to validate the results of parameters' effects. Results disclose that (i) soil conservation service runoff curve number for moisture condition II (CN2) and fraction of snow volume corresponding to 50% snow cover (SNO50COV) are the most significant factors to hydrological responses, implying that infiltration-excess overland flow and snow water equivalent represent important water input to the hydrological system of the Kaidu watershed; (ii) saturate hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K) and soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO) have obvious effects on hydrological responses; this implies that the processes of percolation and evaporation would impact hydrological process in this watershed; (iii) the interactions of ESCO and SNO50COV as well as CN2 and SNO50COV have an obvious effect, implying that snow cover can impact the generation of runoff on land surface and the extraction of soil evaporative demand in lower soil layers. These findings can help enhance the hydrological model's capability for simulating/predicting water resources.

Facilitating hydrological data analysis workflows in R: the RHydro package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; Moulds, Simon; Skoien, Jon; Pebesma, Edzer; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

The advent of new technologies such as web-services and big data analytics holds great promise for hydrological data analysis and simulation. Driven by the need for better water management tools, it allows for the construction of much more complex workflows, that integrate more and potentially more heterogeneous data sources with longer tool chains of algorithms and models. With the scientific challenge of designing the most adequate processing workflow comes the technical challenge of implementing the workflow with a minimal risk for errors. A wide variety of new workbench technologies and other data handling systems are being developed. At the same time, the functionality of available data processing languages such as R and Python is increasing at an accelerating pace. Because of the large diversity of scientific questions and simulation needs in hydrology, it is unlikely that one single optimal method for constructing hydrological data analysis workflows will emerge. Nevertheless, languages such as R and Python are quickly gaining popularity because they combine a wide array of functionality with high flexibility and versatility. The object-oriented nature of high-level data processing languages makes them particularly suited for the handling of complex and potentially large datasets. In this paper, we explore how handling and processing of hydrological data in R can be facilitated further by designing and implementing a set of relevant classes and methods in the experimental R package RHydro. We build upon existing efforts such as the sp and raster packages for spatial data and the spacetime package for spatiotemporal data to define classes for hydrological data (HydroST). In order to handle simulation data from hydrological models conveniently, a HM class is defined. Relevant methods are implemented to allow for an optimal integration of the HM class with existing model fitting and simulation functionality in R. Lastly, we discuss some of the design challenges of the RHydro package, including integration with big data technologies, web technologies, and emerging data models in hydrology.

Water repellency and organic matter composition after a wildfire: new insights using thermal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Doerr, Stefan

2014-05-01

Water repellency, a key parameter in the hydrological and ecological behaviour of ecosystems, is one of the main soil properties affected by wildfire through its impact on organic matter (Shakesby and Doerr, 2006). This study examines the link between post-fire organic matter quantity and composition, soil water repellency and related hydrological properties in order to (i) examine the influence of different organic matter pools on soil hydrological properties and (ii) to explore the use of these links as a proxy for soil hydrological impacts of fire. Soil samples from five fire-affected burned and unburned control sites in Andisols terrain in Tenerife, previously studied for water repellency and hydrology-related properties (Neris et al., 2013), were selected and thermogravimetric analysis (TG) carried out to evaluate fire impacts on their organic matter composition. A decrease in the organic matter quantity as well as in the relative amount of the labile organic matter pool and an increase in the recalcitrant and/or refractory pool depending was observed in the burned soils. TG data, using 10 ºC temperature range steps, allowed reasonable prediction of soil properties evaluated, with R2 ranging from 0.4 to 0.8. The labile pool showed a broad and positive influence on most soil properties evaluated, whereas the refractory pool and the dehydration range affected the surface water holding capacity and water repellency. These results, in conjunction with the simplicity of the TG analysis suggest that, following a calibration step to link TG data to the site-specific post-fire soil properties, this method may be a useful tool for rapid and cost-effective soil hydrological response evaluation after the fire. References Neris, J., Tejedor, M., Fuentes, J., Jiménez, C., 2013. Infiltration, runoff and soil loss in Andisols affected by forest fire (Canary Islands, Spain). Hydrological Processes 27(19), 2814-2824. Shakesby, R.A., Doerr, S.H., 2006. Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent. Earth-Science Reviews 74(3-4), 269-307.

What is the relative role of initial hydrological conditions and meteorological forcing to the seasonal hydrological forecasting skill? Analysis along Europe's hydro-climatic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Crochemore, Louise

2017-04-01

Recent advances in understanding and forecasting of climate have led into skilful seasonal meteorological predictions, which can consequently increase the confidence of hydrological prognosis. The majority of seasonal impact modelling has commonly been conducted at only one or a limited number of basins limiting the potential to understand large systems. Nevertheless, there is a necessity to develop operational seasonal forecasting services at the pan-European scale, capable of addressing the end-user needs. The skill of such forecasting services is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty, i.e. model structure, parameters, and forcing input. In here, we complement the "deep" knowledge from basin based modelling by investigating the relative contributions of initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of a seasonal pan-European hydrological forecasting system. We use the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP (revESP) procedure to show a proxy of hydrological forecasting uncertainty due to MF and IHC uncertainties respectively. We further calculate the critical lead time (CLT), as a proxy of the river memory, after which the importance of MFs surpasses the importance of IHCs. We analyze these results in the context of prevailing hydro-climatic conditions for about 35000 European basins. Both model state initialisation (level in surface water, i.e. reservoirs, lakes and wetlands, soil moisture, snow depth) and provision of climatology are based on forcing input derived from the WFDEI product for the period 1981-2010. The analysis shows that the contribution of ICs and MFs to the hydrological forecasting skill varies considerably according to location, season and lead time. This analysis allows clustering of basins in which hydrological forecasting skill may be improved by better estimation of IHCs, e.g. via data assimilation of in-situ and/or satellite observations; whereas in other basins skill improvement depends on better MFs.

Remote assessment of instantaneous changes in water chemistry after liming in a Nova Scotia catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelidis, Christine

2013-04-01

Remote assessment of instantaneous changes in water chemistry after liming in a Nova Scotia catchment ANGELIDIS, C.1, STERLING, S.1, BREEN, A.2, BIAGI, K.1., and CLAIR, T.A.1 1Dalhousie University, christine.angelidis@dal.ca, 2Bluenose Coastal Action Foundation, andrew@coastalaction.org Southwestern Nova Scotia has some of the most acidic freshwaters in North America due to its location downwind of the major emission sources in eastern Canada and the US and due to a resistant geology which offers little acid buffering capacity (Clair et al. 2007). Because of the poor buffering and regionally high runoff values, hydrological events such as snowmelt and rain storms are frequent and can cause sudden changes in water chemistry which can have devastating effects on freshwater biota due to increases in acidity and metals (Dennis and Clair in press). Clair et al. (2001) have estimated the potential frequency of acidic episodes in this region based on a number of hydrological factors, though the technology available at the time to monitor short-term changes was not dependable. Recent advances in equipment have made the assessment of the frequency and severity of acidic episodes easier and more accurate, allowing better interpretation and prediction of hydrogeochemical changes with variations in weather and deposition patterns. Here we take advantage of these recent advances to monitor water chemistry in an experimental catchment, and explore the response to catchment liming. Catchment liming is one way of mitigating the effects of acid deposition in sensitive areas. We limed a 50 ha catchment at a rate of 5 t/ha in the Gold River watershed of southwest Nova Scotia to examine the interactions between application of lime with the geological and climatological conditions of this region and acid episode frequency. In order to assess changes of episode frequency caused by liming, we established two mobile environmental monitoring platforms in the catchment: a control site located immediately above the limed area, and a treatment site 10 m below the limed area. We monitored pH, DO, water temperature, conductivity, stage height, air temperature, wind speed and direction as well as precipitation every 15 minutes since November 2011 with the data being accessed in real-time. The high frequency measurements were supplemented by a full chemical analysis of bi-weekly to monthly grab-samples at the site since December 2010. Pre-treatment stream chemistry and hydrology data at the control and treatment sites show identical patterns. pH values before treatment were as low as 4.9 and Ca2+ as low as 0.7 mg•L-1 demonstrating the need for the lime treatment. In this work, we show real-time outputs of pre- and post-treatment stream chemistry and present the short-term effects of liming on this uniquely acid sensitive ecosystem. Clair, T.A., Bobba, A.G., & Miller, K. 2001. Yearly changes in the seasonal frequency and duration of short-term acid pulses in Nova Scotia, Canada streams. Env. Geol. 40: 582-591. Clair, T.A., Dennis, I.F., Scruton, D.A., & Gilliss, M. 2007. Freshwater acidification research in Atlantic Canada: a review of results and predictions for the future. Env. Reviews 15: 153-167. Dennis, I.F. & Clair, T.A. (in press) The distribution of dissolved aluminum in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) rivers of Atlantic Canada and its potential effect on aquatic populations. Can. J.Fish Aquat. Sci.

Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily temperature and PET observations at Uccle and a large ensemble of 160 global climate model runs (CMIP5). They cover all four representative concentration pathway based greenhouse gas scenarios. While evaluating the downscaled meteorological series, particular attention was given to the performance of extreme value metrics (e.g. for precipitation, by means of intensity-duration-frequency statistics). Moreover, the total uncertainty was decomposed in the fractional uncertainties for each of the uncertainty sources considered. Research assessing the additional uncertainty due to parameter and structural uncertainties of the hydrological impact model is ongoing.

Nebhydro: Sharing Geospatial Data to Supportwater Management in Nebraska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamble, B.; Irmak, A.; Hubbard, K.; Deogun, J.; Dvorak, B.

2012-12-01

Recent advances in web-enabled geographical technologies have the potential to make a dramatic impact on development of highly interactive spatial applications on the web for visualization of large-scale geospatial data by water resources and irrigation scientists. Spatial and point scale water resources data visualization are an emerging and challenging application domain. Query based visual explorations of geospatial hydrological data can play an important role in stimulating scientific hypotheses and seeking causal relationships among hydro variables. The Nebraska Hydrological Information System (NebHydro) utilizes ESRI's ArcGIS server technology to increase technological awareness among farmers, irrigation managers and policy makers. Web-based geospatial applications are an effective way to expose scientific hydrological datasets to the research community and the public. NebHydro uses Adobe Flex technology to offer an online visualization and data analysis system for presentation of social and economic data. Internet mapping services is an integrated product of GIS and Internet technologies; it is a favored solution to achieve the interoperability of GIS. The development of Internet based GIS services in the state of Nebraska showcases the benefits of sharing geospatial hydrological data among agencies, resource managers and policy makers. Geospatial hydrological Information (Evapotranspiration from Remote Sensing, vegetation indices (NDVI), USGS Stream gauge data, Climatic data etc.) is generally generated through model simulation (METRIC, SWAP, Linux, Python based scripting etc). Information is compiled into and stored within object oriented relational spatial databases using a geodatabase information model that supports the key data types needed by applications including features, relationships, networks, imagery, terrains, maps and layers. The system provides online access, querying, visualization, and analysis of the hydrological data from several sources at one place. The study indicates that internet GIS, developed using advanced technologies, provides valuable education potential to users in hydrology and irrigation engineering and suggests that such a system can support advanced hydrological data access and analysis tools to improve utility of data in operations. Keywords: Hydrological Information System, NebHydro, Water Management, data sharing, data visualization, ArcGIS server.

Relation of physical and chemical characteristics of streams to fish communities in the Red River of the North basin, Minnesota and North Dakota, 1993-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, R.M.; Stauffer, J.C.; Larson, P.R.; Lorenz, D.L.

1996-01-01

Within the instream habitat data set, measures of habitat volume (channel width and depth) and habitat diversity were most significant in explaining the variability of the fish communities. The amount of nonagricultural land and riparian zone integrity from the terrestrial habitat data set were also useful in explaining fish community composition. Variability of mean monthly discharge and the frequency of high and low discharge events during the three years prior to fish sampling were the most influential of the hydrologic variables.The first two axes of the canonical correspondence analysis accounted for 43.3 percent of the variation in the fish community and 52.5 percent of the variation in the environmental-species relation. Water-quality indicators such as the percent of fine material in suspended sediment, minimum dissolved oxygen concentrations, minimum concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, and the range of concentrations of major ions and nutrients were the variables that were most important in the canonical correspondence analysis of water-quality data with fish. No single environmental variable or data set appeared to be more important than another in explaining variation in the fish community. The environmental factors affecting the fish communities of the Red River of the North are interrelated. For the most part, instream environmental conditions (instream habitat, hydrology, and water chemistry) appear to be more important in explaining variability in fish community composition than factors related to the agricultural nature of the basin.

A two-stage method of quantitative flood risk analysis for reservoir real-time operation using ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.

2013-12-01

Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts directly depict the inflows not only the marginal distributions but also their persistence via scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts as inputs. A method is developed by using the forecast horizon point to divide the future time into two stages, the forecast lead-time and the unpredicted time. The risk within the forecast lead-time is computed based on counting the failure number of forecast scenarios, and the risk in the unpredicted time is estimated using reservoir routing with the design floods and the reservoir water levels of forecast horizon point. As a result, a two-stage risk analysis method is set up to quantify the entire flood risks by defining the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios. The China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is selected as a case study, where the parameter and precipitation uncertainties are implemented to produce ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts. The Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, is used to account for the parameter uncertainty. Two reservoir operation schemes, the real operated and scenario optimization, are evaluated for the flood risks and hydropower profits analysis. With the 2010 flood, it is found that the improvement of the hydrologic forecast accuracy is unnecessary to decrease the reservoir real-time operation risk, and most risks are from the forecast lead-time. It is therefore valuable to decrease the avarice of ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts with less bias for a reservoir operational purpose.

The atmosphere- and hydrosphere-correlated signals in GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogusz, Janusz; Boy, Jean-Paul; Klos, Anna; Figurski, Mariusz

2015-04-01

The circulation of surface geophysical fluids (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, continental hydrology, etc.) induces global mass redistribution at the Earth's surface, and then surface deformations and gravity variations. The deformations can be reliably recorded by permanent GPS observations nowadays. The loading effects can be precisely modelled by convolving outputs from global general circulation models and Green's functions describing the Earth's response. Previously published papers showed that either surface gravity records or space-based observations can be efficiently corrected for atmospheric loading effects using surface pressure fields from atmospheric models. In a similar way, loading effects due to continental hydrology can be corrected from precise positioning observations. We evaluated 3-D displacement at the selected ITRF2008 core sites that belong to IGS (International GNSS Service) network due to atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological circulation using different models. Atmospheric and induced oceanic loading estimates were computed using the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) operational and reanalysis (ERA interim) surface pressure fields, assuming an inverted barometer ocean response or a barotropic ocean model forced by air pressure and winds (MOG2D). The IB (Inverted Barometer) hypothesis was classically chosen, in which atmospheric pressure variations are fully compensated by static sea height variations. This approximation is valid for periods exceeding typically 5 to 20 days. At higher frequencies, dynamic effects cannot be neglected. Hydrological loading were provided using MERRA land (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications - NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5)) for the different stations. After that we compared the results to the GPS-derived time series of North, East and Up components. The analysis of satellite data was performed twofold: firstly, the time series from network solution (NS) processed in Bernese 5.0 software by the Military University of Technology EPN Local Analysis Centre, secondly, the ones from PPP (Precise Point Positioning) from JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) processing in Gipsy-Oasis were analyzed. Both were modelled with wavelet decomposition with Meyer orthogonal mother wavelet. Here, nine levels of decomposition were applied and eighth detail of it was interpreted as changes close to one year. In this way, both NS and PPP time series where presented as curves with annual period with amplitudes and phases changeable in time. The same analysis was performed for atmospheric (ATM) and hydrospheric (HYDR) models. All annual curves (modelled from NS, PPP, ATM and HYDR) were then compared to each other to investigate whether GPS observations contain the atmosphere and hydrosphere correlated signals and in what way the amplitudes of them may disrupt the GPS time series.

Hydrologic aspects of Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina, September 1989

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuck-Kolben, R. E.; Cherry, R.N.

1995-01-01

Hurricane Hugo, with winds in excess of 135 miles per hour(mi/h), made landfall near Charleston, S.C., early on the morning of September 22, 1989. It was the most destructive hurricane ever experienced in South Carolina. The storm caused 35 deaths and $7 billion in property damage in South Carolina (Purvis, 1990).This report documents some hydrologic effects of Hurricane Hugo along the South Carolina coast. The report includes maps showing storm-tide stage and profiles of the maximum storm-tide stages along the outer coast. Storm-tide stage frequency information is presented and changes in beach morphology and water quality of coastal streams resulting from the storm are described.

Space-time precipitation extremes for urban hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardossy, A.; Pegram, G. G. S.

2017-12-01

Precipitation extremes are essential for hydrological design. In urban hydrology intensity duration frequency curves (IDFs) are estimated from observation records to design sewer systems. The conventional approaches seldom consider the areal extent of events. If they do so, duration-dependent area reduction factors (ARFs) are applied. In this contribution we investigate the influence of the size of the target urban area on the frequency of occurrence of extremes. We introduce two new concepts, (i) the maximum over an area and (ii) the sub-areal extremes. The properties of these are discussed. The space-time dependence of extremes strongly influences these statistics. The findings of this presentation show that the risk of urban flooding is routinely underestimated. We do this by sampling a long sequence of radar rainfall fields of 1 km resolution, not the usual limited information from gauge records at scattered point locations. The procedure we use is to generate 20 years of plausible 'radar' fields of 5 minute precipitation on a square frame of 128x128 one kilometer pixels and sample them in a regimented way. In this presentation we find that the traditional calculations are underestimating the extremes [by up to 30 % to 50 % depending on size and duration] and we show how we can revise them sensibly. The methodology we devise from simulated radar fields is checked against the records of a dense network of pluviometers covered by a radar in Baden-Württemberg, with a (regrettably) short 4-year record, as proof of concept.

The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meresa, Hadush K.; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in projections of future hydrological extremes in the Biala Tarnowska River at Koszyce gauging station, south Poland. The approach followed is based on several climate projections obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, raw and bias-corrected realizations of catchment precipitation, and flow simulations derived using multiple hydrological model parameter sets. The projections cover the 21st century. Three sources of uncertainty are considered: one related to climate projection ensemble spread, the second related to the uncertainty in hydrological model parameters and the third related to the error in fitting theoretical distribution models to annual extreme flow series. The uncertainty of projected extreme indices related to hydrological model parameters was conditioned on flow observations from the reference period using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, with separate criteria for high- and low-flow extremes. Extreme (low and high) flow quantiles were estimated using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution at different return periods and were based on two different lengths of the flow time series. A sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model parameters can be larger than the climate model variability and the distribution fit uncertainty for the low-flow extremes whilst for the high-flow extremes higher uncertainty is observed from climate models than from hydrological parameter and distribution fit uncertainties. This implies that ignoring one of the three uncertainty sources may cause great risk to future hydrological extreme adaptations and water resource planning and management.

Extension of classical hydrological risk analysis to non-stationary conditions due to climate change - application to the Fulda catchment, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, G.; Koch, M.

2010-12-01

An important aspect in water resources and hydrological engineering is the assessment of hydrological risk, due to the occurrence of extreme events, e.g. droughts or floods. When dealing with the latter - as is the focus here - the classical methods of flood frequency analysis (FFA) are usually being used for the proper dimensioning of a hydraulic structure, for the purpose of bringing down the flood risk to an acceptable level. FFA is based on extreme value statistics theory. Despite the progress of methods in this scientific branch, the development, decision, and fitting of an appropriate distribution function stills remains a challenge, particularly, when certain underlying assumptions of the theory are not met in real applications. This is, for example, the case when the stationarity-condition for a random flood time series is not satisfied anymore, as could be the situation when long-term hydrological impacts of future climate change are to be considered. The objective here is to verify the applicability of classical (stationary) FFA to predicted flood time series in the Fulda catchment in central Germany, as they may occur in the wake of climate change during the 21st century. These discharge time series at the outlet of the Fulda basin have been simulated with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) that is forced by predicted climate variables of a regional climate model for Germany (REMO). From the simulated future daily time series, annual maximum (extremes) values are computed and analyzed for the purpose of risk evaluation. Although the 21st century estimated extreme flood series of the Fulda river turn out to be only mildly non-stationary, alleviating the need for further action and concern at the first sight, the more detailed analysis of the risk, as quantified, for example, by the return period, shows non-negligent differences in the calculated risk levels. This could be verified by employing a new method, the so-called flood series maximum analysis (FSMA) method, which consists in the stochastic simulation of numerous trajectories of a stochastic process with a given GEV-distribution over a certain length of time (> larger than a desired return period). Then the maximum value for each trajectory is computed, all of which are then used to determine the empirical distribution of this maximum series. Through graphical inversion of this distribution function the size of the design flood for a given risk (quantile) and given life duration can be inferred. The results of numerous simulations show that for stationary flood series, the new FSMA method results, expectedly, in nearly identical risk values as the classical FFA approach. However, once the flood time series becomes slightly non-stationary - for reasons as discussed - and regardless of whether the trend is increasing or decreasing, large differences in the computed risk values for a given design flood occur. Or in other word, for the same risk, the new FSMA method would lead to different values in the design flood for a hydraulic structure than the classical FFA method. This, in turn, could lead to some cost savings in the realization of a hydraulic project.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Increased Hydrologic Connectivity: Consequences of Reduced Water Storage Capacity in the Delmarva Peninsula (U.S.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mclaughlin, D. L.; Jones, C. N.; Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; Alexander, L. C.; Lang, M.

2017-12-01

Combined geospatial and modeling approaches are required to fully enumerate wetland hydrologic connectivity and downstream effects. Here, we utilized both geospatial analysis and hydrologic modeling to explore drivers and consequences of modified surface water connectivity in the Delmarva Peninsula, with particular focus on increased connectivity via pervasive wetland ditching. Our geospatial analysis quantified both historical and contemporary wetland storage capacity across the region, and suggests that over 70% of historical storage capacity has been lost due to this ditching. Building upon this analysis, we applied a catchment-scale model to simulate implications of reduced storage capacity on catchment-scale hydrology. In short, increased connectivity (and concomitantly reduced wetland water storage capacity) decreases catchment inundation extent and spatial heterogeneity, shortens cumulative residence times, and increases downstream flow variation with evident effects on peak and baseflow dynamics. As such, alterations in connectivity have implications for hydrologically mediated functions in catchments (e.g., nutrient removal) and downstream systems (e.g., maintenance of flow for aquatic habitat). Our work elucidates such consequences in Delmarva Peninsula while also providing new tools for broad application to target wetland restoration and conservation. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect policies of the US EPA or US FWS.

Flood analysis in mixed-urban areas reflecting interactions with the complete water cycle through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic modelling.

PubMed

Sto Domingo, N D; Refsgaard, A; Mark, O; Paludan, B

2010-01-01

The potential devastating effects of urban flooding have given high importance to thorough understanding and management of water movement within catchments, and computer modelling tools have found widespread use for this purpose. The state-of-the-art in urban flood modelling is the use of a coupled 1D pipe and 2D overland flow model to simultaneously represent pipe and surface flows. This method has been found to be accurate for highly paved areas, but inappropriate when land hydrology is important. The objectives of this study are to introduce a new urban flood modelling procedure that is able to reflect system interactions with hydrology, verify that the new procedure operates well, and underline the importance of considering the complete water cycle in urban flood analysis. A physically-based and distributed hydrological model was linked to a drainage network model for urban flood analysis, and the essential components and concepts used were described in this study. The procedure was then applied to a catchment previously modelled with the traditional 1D-2D procedure to determine if the new method performs similarly well. Then, results from applying the new method in a mixed-urban area were analyzed to determine how important hydrologic contributions are to flooding in the area.

OLAP Cube Visualization of Hydrologic Data Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaslavsky, I.; Rodriguez, M.; Beran, B.; Valentine, D.; van Ingen, C.; Wallis, J. C.

2007-12-01

As part of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project, we assemble comprehensive observations data catalogs that support CUAHSI data discovery services (WaterOneFlow services) and online mapping interfaces (e.g. the Data Access System for Hydrology, DASH). These catalogs describe several nation-wide data repositories that are important for hydrologists, including USGS NWIS and EPA STORET data collections. The catalogs contain a wealth of information reflecting the entire history and geography of hydrologic observations in the US. Managing such catalogs requires high performance analysis and visualization technologies. OLAP (Online Analytical Processing) cube, often called data cubes, is an approach to organizing and querying large multi-dimensional data collections. We have applied the OLAP techniques, as implemented in Microsoft SQL Server 2005, to the analysis of the catalogs from several agencies. In this initial report, we focus on the OLAP technology as applied to catalogs, and preliminary results of the analysis. Specifically, we describe the challenges of generating OLAP cube dimensions, and defining aggregations and views for data catalogs as opposed to observations data themselves. The initial results are related to hydrologic data availability from the observations data catalogs. The results reflect geography and history of available data totals from USGS NWIS and EPA STORET repositories, and spatial and temporal dynamics of available measurements for several key nutrient-related parameters.

A First Look at Decadal Hydrological Predictability by Land Surface Ensemble Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhu, Enda

2018-03-01

The prediction of terrestrial hydrology at the decadal scale is critical for managing water resources in the face of climate change. Here we conducted an assessment by global land model simulations following the design of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast experiments, specifically testing for the sensitivity to perfect initial or boundary conditions. The memory for terrestrial water storage (TWS) is longer than 6 years over 11% of global land areas where the deep soil moisture and aquifer water have a long memory and a nonnegligible variability. Ensemble decadal predictions based on realistic initial conditions are skillful over 31%, 43%, and 59% of global land areas for TWS, deep soil moisture, and aquifer water, respectively. The fraction of skillful predictions for TWS increases by 10%-16% when conditioned on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices. This study provides a first look at decadal hydrological predictability, with an improved skill when incorporating low-frequency climate information.

Similarity and scale in catchment storm response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Eric F.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Beven, Keith

1993-01-01

Until recently, very little progress had been made in understanding the relationship between small-scale variability of topography, soil, and rainfalls and the storm response seen at the catchment scale. The work reviewed here represents the first attempt at a systematic theoretical framework for such understanding in the context of surface runoff generation by different processes. The parameterization of hydrological processes over a range of scales is examined, and the concept of the 'representative elementary area' (REA) is introduced. The REA is a fundamental scale for catchment modeling at which continuum assumptions can be applied for the spatially variable controls and parameters, and spatial patterns no longer have to be considered explicitly. The investigation of scale leads into the concept of hydrologic similarity in which the effects of the environmental controls on runoff generation and flood frequency response be investigated independently of catchment scale. The paper reviews the authors' initial results and hopefully will motivate others to also investigate the issues of hydrologic scale and similarity.

CubeSats in Hydrology: Ultrahigh-Resolution Insights Into Vegetation Dynamics and Terrestrial Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe, M. F.; Aragon, B.; Houborg, R.; Mascaro, J.

2017-12-01

Satellite-based remote sensing has generally necessitated a trade-off between spatial resolution and temporal frequency, affecting the capacity to observe fast hydrological processes and rapidly changing land surface conditions. An avenue for overcoming these spatiotemporal restrictions is the concept of using constellations of satellites, as opposed to the mission focus exemplified by the more conventional space-agency approach to earth observation. Referred to as CubeSats, these platforms offer the potential to provide new insights into a range of earth system variables and processes. Their emergence heralds a paradigm shift from single-sensor launches to an operational approach that envisions tens to hundreds of small, lightweight, and comparatively inexpensive satellites placed into a range of low earth orbits. Although current systems are largely limited to sensing in the optical portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, we demonstrate the opportunity and potential that CubeSats present the hydrological community via the retrieval of vegetation dynamics and terrestrial evaporation and foreshadow future sensing capabilities.

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter time steps. This study suggests that measures of hydrologic response quantified at these shorter time steps may provide a more robust basis for making predictions in applications of water resource management, model calibration and simulations, and human health and safety.

Online Hydrologic Impact Assessment Decision Support System using Internet and Web-GIS Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J.; Engel, B. A.; Harbor, J.

2002-05-01

Urban sprawl and the corresponding land use change from lower intensity uses, such as agriculture and forests, to higher intensity uses including high density residential and commercial has various long- and short-term environment impacts on ground water recharge, water pollution, and storm water drainage. A web-based Spatial Decision Support System, SDSS, for Web-based operation of long-term hydrologic impact modeling and analysis was developed. The system combines a hydrologic model, databases, web-GIS capability and HTML user interfaces to create a comprehensive hydrologic analysis system. The hydrologic model estimates daily direct runoff using the NRCS Curve Number technique and annual nonpoint source pollution loading by an event mean concentration approach. This is supported by a rainfall database with over 30 years of daily rainfall for the continental US. A web-GIS interface and a robust Web-based watershed delineation capability were developed to simplify the spatial data preparation task that is often a barrier to hydrologic model operation. The web-GIS supports browsing of map layers including hydrologic soil groups, roads, counties, streams, lakes and railroads, as well as on-line watershed delineation for any geographic point the user selects with a simple mouse click. The watershed delineation results can also be used to generate data for the hydrologic and water quality models available in the DSS. This system is already being used by city and local government planners for hydrologic impact evaluation of land use change from urbanization, and can be found at http://pasture.ecn.purdue.edu/~watergen/hymaps. This system can assist local community, city and watershed planners, and even professionals when they are examining impacts of land use change on water resources. They can estimate the hydrologic impact of possible land use changes using this system with readily available data supported through the Internet. This system provides a cost effective approach to serve potential users who require easy-to-use tools.

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Donald R.

1998-01-01

The goal of this research is the continued development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. This work involves a combination of modeling and analysis efforts involving 4DDA datasets and simulations from the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) coordinate model and the GEOS GCM.

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

2017-11-01

Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with the use of a statistical law with two parameters (here generalised extreme value Type I distribution) and clearly lower than those associated with the use of a three-parameter law (here generalised extreme value Type II distribution). For extreme flood quantiles, the uncertainties are mostly due to the rainfall generator because of the progressive saturation of the hydrological model.

Landsat Thematic Mapper studies of land cover spatial variability related to hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wharton, S.; Ormsby, J.; Salomonson, V.; Mulligan, P.

1984-01-01

Past accomplishments involving remote sensing based land-cover analysis for hydrologic applications are reviewed. Ongoing research in exploiting the increased spatial, radiometric, and spectral capabilities afforded by the TM on Landsats 4 and 5 is considered. Specific studies to compare MSS and TM for urbanizing watersheds, wetlands, and floodplain mapping situations show that only a modest improvement in classification accuracy is achieved via statistical per pixel multispectral classifiers. The limitations of current approaches to multispectral classification are illustrated. The objectives, background, and progress in the development of an alternative analysis approach for defining inputs to urban hydrologic models using TM are discussed.