Impacts of uncertainties in weather and streamflow observations in calibration and evaluation of an elevation distributed HBV-model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, K.; Steinsland, I.; Petersen-Øverleir, A.; Johansen, S.

2012-04-01

The aim of this study is to assess the uncertainties in streamflow simulations when uncertainties in both observed inputs (precipitation and temperature) and streamflow observations used in the calibration of the hydrological model are explicitly accounted for. To achieve this goal we applied the elevation distributed HBV model operating on daily time steps to a small catchment in high elevation in Southern Norway where the seasonal snow cover is important. The uncertainties in precipitation inputs were quantified using conditional simulation. This procedure accounts for the uncertainty related to the density of the precipitation network, but neglects uncertainties related to measurement bias/errors and eventual elevation gradients in precipitation. The uncertainties in temperature inputs were quantified using a Bayesian temperature interpolation procedure where the temperature lapse rate is re-estimated every day. The uncertainty in the lapse rate was accounted for whereas the sampling uncertainty related to network density was neglected. For every day a random sample of precipitation and temperature inputs were drawn to be applied as inputs to the hydrologic model. The uncertainties in observed streamflow were assessed based on the uncertainties in the rating curve model. A Bayesian procedure was applied to estimate the probability for rating curve models with 1 to 3 segments and the uncertainties in their parameters. This method neglects uncertainties related to errors in observed water levels. Note that one rating curve was drawn to make one realisation of a whole time series of streamflow, thus the rating curve errors lead to a systematic bias in the streamflow observations. All these uncertainty sources were linked together in both calibration and evaluation of the hydrologic model using a DREAM based MCMC routine. Effects of having less information (e.g. missing one streamflow measurement for defining the rating curve or missing one precipitation station

Comparison of complex and parsimonious model structures by means of a modular hydrological model concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzmann, Hubert; Massmann, Carolina

2015-04-01

A plenty of hydrological model types have been developed during the past decades. Most of them used a fixed design to describe the variable hydrological processes assuming to be representative for the whole range of spatial and temporal scales. This assumption is questionable as it is evident, that the runoff formation process is driven by dominant processes which can vary among different basins. Furthermore the model application and the interpretation of results is limited by data availability to identify the particular sub-processes, since most models were calibrated and validated only with discharge data. Therefore it can be hypothesized, that simpler model designs, focusing only on the dominant processes, can achieve comparable results with the benefit of less parameters. In the current contribution a modular model concept will be introduced, which allows the integration and neglection of hydrological sub-processes depending on the catchment characteristics and data availability. Key elements of the process modules refer to (1) storage effects (interception, soil), (2) transfer processes (routing), (3) threshold processes (percolation, saturation overland flow) and (4) split processes (rainfall excess). Based on hydro-meteorological observations in an experimental catchment in the Slovak region of the Carpathian mountains a comparison of several model realizations with different degrees of complexity will be discussed. A special focus is given on model parameter sensitivity estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. Furthermore the identification of dominant processes by means of Sobol's method is introduced. It could be shown that a flexible model design - and even the simple concept - can reach comparable and equivalent performance than the standard model type (HBV-type). The main benefit of the modular concept is the individual adaptation of the model structure with respect to data and process availability and the option for parsimonious model design.

Adaptive Parameter Optimization of a Grid-based Conceptual Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Kumar, R.; Attinger, S.

2007-12-01

Any spatially explicit hydrological model at the mesoscale is a conceptual approximation of the hydrological cycle and its dominant process occurring at this scale. Manual-expert calibration of this type of models may become quite tedious---if not impossible---taking into account the enormous amount of data required by these kind of models and the intrinsic uncertainty of both the data (input-output) and the model structure. Additionally, the model should be able to reproduce well several process which are accounted by a number of predefined objectives. As a consequence, some degree of automatic calibration would be required to find "good" solutions, each one constituting a trade-off among all calibration criteria. In other words, it is very likely that a number of parameter sets fulfil the optimization criteria and thus can be considered a model solution. In this study, we dealt with two research questions: 1) How to assess the adequate level of model complexity so that model overparameterization is avoided? And, 2) How to find a good solution with a relatively low computational burden? In the present study, a grid-based conceptual hydrological model denoted as HBV-UFZ based on some of the original HBV concepts was employed. This model was driven by 12~h precipitation, temperature, and PET grids which are acquired either from satellite products or from data of meteorological stations. In the latter case, the data was interpolated with external drift Kriging. The first research question was addressed in this study with the implementation of nonlinear transfer functions that regionalize most model parameters as a function of other spatially distributed observables such as land cover (time dependent) and other time independent basin characteristics such as soil type, slope, aspect, geological formations among others. The second question was addressed with an adaptive constrained optimization algorithm based on a parallel implementation of simulated annealing (SA

Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

2017-04-01

Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

Acute HBV infection in humanized chimeric mice has multiphasic viral kinetics

DOE PAGES

Ishida, Yuji; Chung, Tje Lin; Imamura, Michio; ...

2018-03-23

Background: Chimeric uPA/SCID mice reconstituted with humanized livers are useful for studying HBV infection in the absence of an adaptive immune response. However, the detailed characterization of HBV infection kinetics necessary to enable in-depth mechanistic studies in this novel in vivo HBV infection model is lacking. Methods: To characterize HBV kinetics post-inoculation (p.i.) to steady state, 42 mice were inoculated with HBV. Serum HBV DNA was frequently measured from 1 minute to 63 days p.i. Total intrahepatic HBV DNA, HBV cccDNA, and HBV RNA was measured in a subset of mice at 2, 4, 6, 10, and 13 weeks p.i.more » HBV half-life (t 1/2) was estimated using a linear mixed-effects model. Results: During the first 6 h p.i. serum HBV declined in repopulated uPA/SCID mice with a t 1/2=62 min [95%CI=59-67min]. Thereafter, viral decline slowed followed by a 2 day lower plateau. Subsequent viral amplification was multiphasic with an initial mean doubling time of t 2= 8±3 h followed by an interim plateau before prolonged amplification (t 2=2±0.5 days) to a final HBV steady state of 9.3 ± 0.3 log copies/ml. Serum HBV and intrahepatic HBV DNA were positively correlated (R2=0.98). Conclusions: HBV infection in uPA/SCID chimeric mice is highly dynamic despite the absence of an adaptive immune response. The serum HBV t 1/2 in humanized uPA/SCID mice was estimated to be ~1 h regardless of inoculum size. Finally, the HBV acute infection kinetics presented here is an important step in characterizing this experimental model system so that it can be effectively used to elucidate the dynamics of the HBV lifecycle and thus possibly reveal effective antiviral drug targets.« less

Acute HBV infection in humanized chimeric mice has multiphasic viral kinetics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ishida, Yuji; Chung, Tje Lin; Imamura, Michio

Background: Chimeric uPA/SCID mice reconstituted with humanized livers are useful for studying HBV infection in the absence of an adaptive immune response. However, the detailed characterization of HBV infection kinetics necessary to enable in-depth mechanistic studies in this novel in vivo HBV infection model is lacking. Methods: To characterize HBV kinetics post-inoculation (p.i.) to steady state, 42 mice were inoculated with HBV. Serum HBV DNA was frequently measured from 1 minute to 63 days p.i. Total intrahepatic HBV DNA, HBV cccDNA, and HBV RNA was measured in a subset of mice at 2, 4, 6, 10, and 13 weeks p.i.more » HBV half-life (t 1/2) was estimated using a linear mixed-effects model. Results: During the first 6 h p.i. serum HBV declined in repopulated uPA/SCID mice with a t 1/2=62 min [95%CI=59-67min]. Thereafter, viral decline slowed followed by a 2 day lower plateau. Subsequent viral amplification was multiphasic with an initial mean doubling time of t 2= 8±3 h followed by an interim plateau before prolonged amplification (t 2=2±0.5 days) to a final HBV steady state of 9.3 ± 0.3 log copies/ml. Serum HBV and intrahepatic HBV DNA were positively correlated (R2=0.98). Conclusions: HBV infection in uPA/SCID chimeric mice is highly dynamic despite the absence of an adaptive immune response. The serum HBV t 1/2 in humanized uPA/SCID mice was estimated to be ~1 h regardless of inoculum size. Finally, the HBV acute infection kinetics presented here is an important step in characterizing this experimental model system so that it can be effectively used to elucidate the dynamics of the HBV lifecycle and thus possibly reveal effective antiviral drug targets.« less

Dynamics of an HBV/HCV infection model with intracellular delay and cell proliferation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fengqin; Li, Jianquan; Zheng, Chongwu; Wang, Lin

2017-01-01

A new mathematical model of hepatitis B/C virus (HBV/HCV) infection which incorporates the proliferation of healthy hepatocyte cells and the latent period of infected hepatocyte cells is proposed and studied. The dynamics is analyzed via Pontryagin's method and a newly proposed alternative geometric stability switch criterion. Sharp conditions ensuring stability of the infection persistent equilibrium are derived by applying Pontryagin's method. Using the intracellular delay as the bifurcation parameter and applying an alternative geometric stability switch criterion, we show that the HBV/HCV infection model undergoes stability switches. Furthermore, numerical simulations illustrate that the intracellular delay can induce complex dynamics such as persistence bubbles and chaos.

Effects of transarterial chemoembolization combined with antiviral therapy on HBV reactivation and liver function in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with HBV-DNA negative.

PubMed

Wang, Kai; Jiang, Guomin; Jia, Zhongzhi; Zhu, Xiaoli; Ni, Caifang

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the reactivation of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) following transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with HBV-DNA negative and to evaluate the effects of TACE combined with antiviral therapy. This prospective study involved 98 patients with HBV-related and HBV-DNA negative HCC (HBV DNA < 10 copies/mL) underwent TACE procedures with serial HBV DNA tests. Patients were divided into the antiviral treatment group and the no-antiviral group. The antiviral group received entecavir antiviral therapy, and the other group received no antiviral therapy. Two groups of patients were compared in rate of HBV reactivation and liver function before and after only 1 session of TACE in average 1-month follow-up after operation. P < .05 indicated differences with a statistical significance. HBV reactivation occurred in 11 patients in the nonantiviral group (11/47, 23.4%) but only 3 patients in the antiviral group (3/51, 5.9%, P < .05). On multivariate analysis, HBeAg-positive status, number of tumors more than 3, and absence of antiviral therapy were the independent risk predictor of HBV reactivation. Liver function indicators did not differ significantly between the antiviral group and the nonantiviral group in 5 days after TACE. However, the level of alanine aminotransferase and bilirubin were raised and albumin was reduced at the HBV reactivation group compared with no HBV reactivation group (P < .05). At 1 month after TACE, liver function indicators did not differ significantly between the HBV reactivation group and without HBV reactivation group. HCC patients with HBV DNA negative still remain associated with risk of HBV reactivation after TACE. HBeAg-positive, number of tumors more than 3, and absence of antiviral therapy in HCC patients after TACE have a higher risk of HBV reactivation. Antiviral therapy can reduce the risk of reactivation, helping improve liver function

Assimilating GRACE terrestrial water storage data into a conceptual hydrology model for the River Rhine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiastuti, E.; Steele-Dunne, S. C.; Gunter, B.; Weerts, A.; van de Giesen, N.

2009-12-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a key component of the terrestrial and global hydrological cycles, and plays a major role in the Earth’s climate. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellite mission provided the first space-based dataset of TWS variations, albeit with coarse resolution and limited accuracy. Here, we examine the value of assimilating GRACE observations into a well-calibrated conceptual hydrology model of the Rhine river basin. In this study, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother (EnKS) were applied to assimilate the GRACE TWS variation data into the HBV-96 rainfall run-off model, from February 2003 to December 2006. Two GRACE datasets were used, the DMT-1 models produced at TU Delft, and the CSR-RL04 models produced by UT-Austin . Each center uses its own data processing and filtering methods, yielding two different estimates of TWS variations and therefore two sets of assimilated TWS estimates. To validate the results, the model estimated discharge after the data assimilation was compared with measured discharge at several stations. As expected, the updated TWS was generally somewhere between the modeled and observed TWS in both experiments and the variance was also lower than both the prior error covariance and the assumed GRACE observation error. However, the impact on the discharge was found to depend heavily on the assimilation strategy used, in particular on how the TWS increments were applied to the individual storage terms of the hydrology model.

Progress and Prospects of Anti-HBV Gene Therapy Development

PubMed Central

Maepa, Mohube B.; Roelofse, Ilke; Ely, Abdullah; Arbuthnot, Patrick

2015-01-01

Despite the availability of an effective vaccine against hepatitis B virus (HBV), chronic infection with the virus remains a major global health concern. Current drugs against HBV infection are limited by emergence of resistance and rarely achieve complete viral clearance. This has prompted vigorous research on developing better drugs against chronic HBV infection. Advances in understanding the life cycle of HBV and improvements in gene-disabling technologies have been impressive. This has led to development of better HBV infection models and discovery of new drug candidates. Ideally, a regimen against chronic HBV infection should completely eliminate all viral replicative intermediates, especially covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA). For the past few decades, nucleic acid-based therapy has emerged as an attractive alternative that may result in complete clearance of HBV in infected patients. Several genetic anti-HBV strategies have been developed. The most studied approaches include the use of antisense oligonucleotides, ribozymes, RNA interference effectors and gene editing tools. This review will summarize recent developments and progress made in the use of gene therapy against HBV. PMID:26263978

Use of distributed snow cover information to update snow storages of a lumped rainfall-runoff model operationally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisniak, D.; Meissner, D.; Klein, B.; Pinzinger, R.

2013-12-01

The German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) offers navigational water-level forecasting services on the Federal Waterways, like the rivers Rhine and Danube. In cooperation with the Federal States this mandate also includes the forecasting of flood events. For the River Rhine, the most frequented inland waterway in Central Europe, the BfG employs a hydrological model (HBV) coupled to a hydraulic model (SOBEK) by the FEWS-framework to perform daily forecasts of water-levels operationally. Sensitivity studies have shown that the state of soil water storage in the hydrological model is a major factor of uncertainty when performing short- to medium-range forecasts some days ahead. Taking into account the various additional sources of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, including measurement uncertainties, it is essential to estimate an optimal initial state of the soil water storage before propagating it in time, forced by meteorological forecasts, and transforming it into discharge. We show, that using the Ensemble Kalman Filter these initial states can be updated straightforward under certain hydrologic conditions. However, this approach is not sufficient if the runoff is mainly generated by snow melt. Since the snow cover evolution is modeled rather poorly by the HBV-model in our operational setting, flood events caused by snow melt are consistently underestimated by the HBV-model, which has long term effects in basins characterized by a nival runoff regime. Thus, it appears beneficial to update the snow storage of the HBV-model with information derived from regionalized snow cover observations. We present a method to incorporate spatially distributed snow cover observations into the lumped HBV-model. We show the plausibility of this approach and asses the benefits of a coupled snow cover and soil water storage updating, which combine a direct insertion with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The Ensemble Kalman Filter used here takes into account the

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

PubMed Central

Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

[Impact of HIV/HBV infection and HIV/HBV co-infection on outcomes of pregnancy].

PubMed

Yang, Y; Cheng, W T; Zhou, Y B; Jiang, Q W

2017-06-10

Both HIV and HBV infection have become major health problems, of global concern, due to the high prevalence in the past few decades. Data from cumulated epidemiological surveys have shown the links between maternal HIV or HBV infection and adverse outcomes on pregnancy. Maternal HIV or HBV infection may also increase the mother-to-child (MTCT) transmission of the two diseases. However, association between HIV-HBV co-infection and adverse pregnancy is still inconclusive. Does maternal HIV-HBV co-infection have an impact on mother-to-child transmission on either HIV or HBV? Study on effective precautionary measures to promote both maternal and child's health is deemed necessary.

Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

2017-04-01

To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark

Presence of intrahepatic (total and ccc) HBV DNA is not predictive of HBV recurrence after liver transplantation.

PubMed

Hussain, Munira; Soldevila-Pico, Consuelo; Emre, Sukru; Luketic, Velimir; Lok, Anna S F

2007-08-01

Previous studies reported that hepatitis B virus (HBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) can be detected in livers of patients who received transplants for hepatitis B despite the absence of serological markers of HBV recurrence. Quantification of HBV DNA was not performed and presence of covalently closed circular (ccc) DNA was not analyzed in most studies. We aimed to quantify total and ccc HBV DNA in explant liver and post-orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) biopsies and to correlate the values with HBV recurrence post-OLT. Frozen liver tissue from 34 patients (9 with explant liver only, 9 with explant liver and post-OLT liver biopsies, and 16 with post-OLT biopsies only) in the National Institutes of Health HBV-OLT study was examined using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Among the 18 patients with explant liver, 7 were hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, 8 had detectable serum HBV DNA, and 10 received antiviral therapy prior to OLT. Total and ccc HBV DNA was detected in explant livers of 17 and 16 patients, respectively. Of the 10 patients who received antiviral therapy pre-OLT, serum HBV DNA was undetectable in 8 at transplantation but 7 had detectable total and ccc HBV DNA in their explant liver. Of the 25 patients with post-OLT biopsies, total HBV DNA was detected in 83% and ccc DNA in 17% of 47 biopsies, although only 2 patients had HBV recurrence. In conclusion, total and ccc HBV DNA could be detected in explant livers of most patients despite antiviral therapy pre-OLT. Total but not ccc HBV DNA could be detected in post-OLT liver biopsies of most patients despite undetectable serum HBV DNA and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Our findings suggest that occult HBV reinfection occurs in most HBV patients after OLT and continued administration of appropriate prophylactic therapy is important in preventing overt HBV recurrence. Copyright (c) 2007 AASLD.

Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

2009-02-01

The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Explicit modeling of groundwater-surface water interactions using a simple bucket-type model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staudinger, Maria; Carlier, Claire; Brunner, Philip; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Longer dry spells can become critical for water supply and groundwater dependent ecosystems. During these dry spells groundwater is often the most relevant source for streams. Hence, the hydrological behavior of a catchment is often dominated by groundwater surface water interactions, which can vary considerably in space and time. While classical hydrological approaches hardly consider this spatial dependence, quantitative, hydrogeological modeling approaches can couple surface runoff processes and groundwater processes. Hydrogeological modeling can help to gain an improved understanding of catchment processes during low flow. However, due to their complex parametrization and large computational requirements, such hydrogeological models are difficult to employ at catchment scale, particularly for a larger set of catchments. Then bucket-type hydrological models remain a practical alternative. In this study we combine the strengths of both the hydrogeological and bucket-type hydrological models to better understand low flow processes and ultimately to use this knowledge for low flow projections. Bucket-type hydrological models have traditionally not been developed with focus on the simulation of low flow. One consequence is that interactions between surface and groundwater are not explicitly considered. Water fluxes in bucket-type hydrological models are commonly simulated only in one direction, namely from the groundwater to the stream but not from the stream to the groundwater. This latter flux, however, can become more important during low flow situations. We therefore further developed the bucket-type hydrological model HBV to simulate low flow situations by allowing for exchange in both directions i.e. also from the stream to the groundwater. The additional HBV exchange box is developed by using a variety of synthetic hydrogeological models as training set that were generated using a fully coupled, physically based hydrogeological model. In this way processes

[Distribution and clinical significance of HBV genotypes in patients with HBV infection in 30 regions of China].

PubMed

Zhang, Ai-min; Wang, Hui-fen; Wang, Hai-bin; Su, Hai-bin; Xin, Shao-jie; Hu, Jin-hua; You, Shao-li

2011-04-01

To explore the distribution and clinical significance of HBV genotypes in patients with HBV infection in China. Serum samples were collected from 2922 patients with HBV infection. HBV genotyping was performed with type-specific primers polymerase chain reaction, and the virological and biochemical markers were detected, which differences in the genotypes distribution between various regions and liver function and virological markers between various HBV genotyping were analyzed. The genotype B, C, B + C, D of 2922 patients with HBV infection accounted for 15.9%, 83.5%, 0.41%, 0.21% respectively. In Northern China, genotype C was most prevalent, accounting for 90% of all cases, while it was less common in Southern China; genotype C was present in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, but genotype B was comparatively more common in Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi provinces. B, C genotype HBV infection patients in the sex difference was not statistically significant; B genotypes compared with C genotype HBV infection patients, the average age of is less (P < 0.001); HBeAg positive rate of C genotype HBV infection patients are higher than that of B genotype (P = 0.023); Viral load of genotype C HBV infection patients is higher than that of genotype B (P = 0.038); Cholinesterase and Albumin levels of genotype C HBV infection patients are lower than that of genotype B (P values were 0.016, <0.001). There were HBV genotype B, C, B + C and D in Chinese patients with HBV infection, with genotype B and C being the major ones. Mainly in northern regions of genotype C, C genotype significantly reduced the southern region, some of the southern region dominated by B genotype. Genotype C HBV infection patients are older, and their HBeAg-positive rate is higher, and their liver damage is more severe, but their viral load is less.

Hydrological modelling in forested systems | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological processes. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically 'forest hydrology models'; that is, physically based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle. Physically based models can be considered those that describe the conservation of mass, momentum and/or energy. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of forest hydrology modeling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically “forest hydrology models”, i.e., physically-based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle.

Hepatitis B (HBV)

MedlinePlus

... syringes for injecting drugs transmission from HBV-infected mothers to their newborn babies Who Is at Risk for Hepatitis B? In the United States, the most common way people get infected with HBV is through unprotected sex with someone who has the disease. People who ...

Is ET often oversimplified in hydrologic models? Using long records to elucidate unaccounted for controls on ET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelleher, Christa A.; Shaw, Stephen B.

2018-02-01

Recent research has found that hydrologic modeling over decadal time periods often requires time variant model parameters. Most prior work has focused on assessing time variance in model parameters conceptualizing watershed features and functions. In this paper, we assess whether adding a time variant scalar to potential evapotranspiration (PET) can be used in place of time variant parameters. Using the HBV hydrologic model and four different simple but common PET methods (Hamon, Priestly-Taylor, Oudin, and Hargreaves), we simulated 60+ years of daily discharge on four rivers in New York state. Allowing all ten model parameters to vary in time achieved good model fits in terms of daily NSE and long-term water balance. However, allowing single model parameters to vary in time - including a scalar on PET - achieved nearly equivalent model fits across PET methods. Overall, varying a PET scalar in time is likely more physically consistent with known biophysical controls on PET as compared to varying parameters conceptualizing innate watershed properties related to soil properties such as wilting point and field capacity. This work suggests that the seeming need for time variance in innate watershed parameters may be due to overly simple evapotranspiration formulations that do not account for all factors controlling evapotranspiration over long time periods.

HBV endemicity in Mexico is associated with HBV genotypes H and G

PubMed Central

Roman, Sonia; Panduro, Arturo

2013-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes have distinct genetic and geographic diversity and may be associated with specific clinical characteristics, progression, severity of disease and antiviral response. Herein, we provide an updated overview of the endemicity of HBV genotypes H and G in Mexico. HBV genotype H is predominant among the Mexican population, but not in Central America. Its geographic distribution is related to a typical endemicity among the Mexicans which is characterized by a low hepatitis B surface antigen seroprevalence, apparently due to a rapid resolution of the infection, low viral loads and a high prevalence of occult B infection. During chronic infections, genotype H is detected in mixtures with other HBV genotypes and associated with other co-morbidities, such as obesity, alcoholism and co-infection with hepatitis C virus or human immunodeficiency virus. Hepatocellular carcinoma prevalence is low. Thus, antiviral therapy may differ significantly from the standard guidelines established worldwide. The high prevalence of HBV genotype G in the Americas, especially among the Mexican population, raises new questions regarding its geographic origin that will require further investigation. PMID:24023487

Performance of the cobas Hepatitis B virus (HBV) test using the cobas 4800 system and comparison of HBV DNA quantification ability between the COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HBV test version 2.0 and cobas HBV test.

PubMed

Shin, Kyung-Hwa; Lee, Hyun-Ji; Chang, Chulhun L; Kim, Hyung-Hoi

2018-04-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels are used to predict the response to therapy, determine therapy initiation, monitor resistance to therapy, and establish treatment success. To verify the performance of the cobas HBV test using the cobas 4800 system for HBV DNA quantification and to compare the HBV DNA quantification ability between the cobas HBV test and COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan HBV version 2.0 (CAP/CTM v2.0). The precision, linearity, and limit of detection of the cobas HBV test were evaluated using the 4th World Health Organization International Standard material and plasma samples. Clinical samples that yielded quantitative results using the CAP/CTM v2.0 and cobas HBV tests were subjected to correlational analysis. Three hundred forty-nine samples were subjected to correlational analysis, among which 114 samples showed results above the lower limit of quantification. Comparable results were obtained ([cobas HBV test] = 1.038 × [CAP/CTM v2.0]-0.173, r = 0.914) in 114 samples, which yielded values above the lower limit of quantification. The results for 86.8% of the samples obtained using the cobas HBV test were within 0.5 log 10 IU/mL of the CAP/CTM v2.0 results. The total precision values against the low and high positive controls were 1.4% (mean level: 2.25 log 10 IU/mL) and 3.2% (mean level: 6.23 log 10 IU/mL), respectively. The cobas HBV test demonstrated linearity (1.15-6.75 log 10 IU/mL, y = 0.95 × 6 + 0.17, r 2  = 0.994). The cobas HBV test showed good correlation with CAP/CTM v2.0, and had good precision and an acceptable limit of detection. The cobas HBV test using the cobas 4800 is a reliable method for quantifying HBV DNA levels in the clinical setting. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Tears from children with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are infectious vehicles of HBV transmission: experimental transmission of HBV by tears, using mice with chimeric human livers.

PubMed

Komatsu, Haruki; Inui, Ayano; Sogo, Tsuyoshi; Tateno, Akihiko; Shimokawa, Reiko; Fujisawa, Tomoo

2012-08-15

Body fluids such as saliva, urine, sweat, and tears from hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers are potential sources of HBV transmission. Thirty-nine children and 8 adults who were chronically infected with HBV were enrolled. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used for the quantification of HBV DNA. HBV DNA was detected in 73.7% of urine samples (14 of 19), 86.8% of saliva samples (33 of 38), 100% of tear samples (11 of 11), and 100% of sweat samples (9 of 9). Mean HBV DNA levels (±SD) in urine, saliva, tears, and sweat were 4.3 ± 1.1 log copies/mL, 5.9 ± 1.2 log copies/mL, 6.2 ± 0.7 log copies/mL, and 5.2 ± 0.6 log copies/mL, respectively. A statistically significant correlation was observed between the HBV DNA level in serum specimens and HBV DNA levels in saliva and tear specimens (r = 0.88; P < .001). Tear specimens from a child were injected intravenously into 2 human hepatocyte-transplanted chimeric mice. One week after inoculation, both chimeric mice had serum positive for HBV DNA. The levels of HBV DNA in tear specimens from young children were high. Tears were confirmed to be infectious, using chimeric mice. Strict precautions should be taken against direct contact with body fluids from HBV carriers with high-level viremia.

Hydrological modelling in forested systems

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological p...

Monitoring of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) DNA and Risk of HBV Reactivation in B-Cell Lymphoma: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Kusumoto, Shigeru; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Watanabe, Takashi; Nakata, Masanobu; Takasaki, Hirotaka; Fukushima, Noriyasu; Fukushima, Takuya; Moriuchi, Yukiyoshi; Itoh, Kuniaki; Nosaka, Kisato; Choi, Ilseung; Sawa, Masashi; Okamoto, Rumiko; Tsujimura, Hideki; Uchida, Toshiki; Suzuki, Sachiko; Okamoto, Masataka; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Sugiura, Isamu; Onishi, Yasushi; Kohri, Mika; Yoshida, Shinichiro; Sakai, Rika; Kojima, Minoru; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Tomita, Akihiro; Maruyama, Dai; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Tanaka, Eiji; Suzuki, Takayo; Kinoshita, Tomohiro; Ogura, Michinori; Mizokami, Masashi; Ueda, Ryuzo

2015-09-01

There is no standard management of reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in HBV-resolved patients without hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), but with antibodies against hepatitis B core antigen and/or antibodies against HBsAg (anti-HBs). We conducted a prospective observational study to evaluate the occurrence of HBV reactivation by serial monthly monitoring of HBV DNA and to establish preemptive therapy guided by this monitoring in B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (B-NHL) treated with rituximab plus corticosteroid-containing chemotherapy (R-steroid-chemo). The primary endpoint was the incidence of HBV reactivation defined as quantifiable HBV DNA levels of ≥ 11 IU/mL. With a median HBV DNA follow-up of 562 days, HBV reactivation was observed in 21 of the 269 analyzed patients. The incidence of HBV reactivation at 1.5 years was 8.3% (95% confidence interval, 5.5-12.4). No hepatitis due to HBV reactivation was observed in patients who received antiviral treatment when HBV DNA levels were between 11 and 432 IU/mL. An anti-HBs titer of <10 mIU/mL and detectable HBV DNA remaining below the level of quantification at baseline were independent risk factors for HBV reactivation (hazard ratio, 20.6 and 56.2, respectively; P < .001). Even in 6 patients with a rapid increase of HBV due to mutations, the monthly HBV DNA monitoring was effective at preventing HBV-related hepatitis. Monthly monitoring of HBV DNA is useful for preventing HBV reactivation-related hepatitis among B-NHL patients with resolved HBV infection following R-steroid-chemo (UMIN000001299). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

HBV life cycle is restricted in mouse hepatocytes expressing human NTCP.

PubMed

Li, Hanjie; Zhuang, Qiuyu; Wang, Yuze; Zhang, Tianying; Zhao, Jinghua; Zhang, Yali; Zhang, Junfang; Lin, Yi; Yuan, Quan; Xia, Ningshao; Han, Jiahuai

2014-03-01

Recent studies have revealed that human sodium taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide (SLC10A1 or NTCP) is a functional cellular receptor for hepatitis B virus (HBV). However, whether human NTCP can support HBV infection in mouse hepatocyte cell lines has not been clarified. Because an HBV-permissible mouse model would be helpful for the study of HBV pathogenesis, it is necessary to investigate whether human NTCP supports the susceptibility of mouse hepatocyte cell lines to HBV. The results show that exogenous human NTCP expression can render non-susceptible HepG2 (human), Huh7 (human), Hepa1-6 (mouse), AML-12 (mouse) cell lines and primary mouse hepatocyte (PMH) cells susceptible to hepatitis D virus (HDV) which employs HBV envelope proteins. However, human NTCP could only introduce HBV susceptibility in human-derived HepG2 and Huh7 cells, but not in mouse-derived Hepa1-6, AML-12 or PMH cells. These data suggest that although human NTCP is a functional receptor that mediates HBV infection in human cells, it cannot support HBV infection in mouse hepatocytes. Our study indicated that the restriction of HBV in mouse hepatocytes likely occurs after viral entry but prior to viral transcription. We have excluded the role of mouse hepatocyte nuclear factors in the restriction of the HBV life cycle and showed that knockdown or inhibition of Sting, TBK1, IRF3 or IRF7, the components of the anti-viral signaling pathways, had no effect on HBV infection in mouse hepatocytes. Therefore, murine restriction factors that limit HBV infection need to be identified before a HBV-permissible mouse line can be created.

HBV genotypes and drug resistance mutations in antiretroviral treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HBV-HIV-coinfected patients.

PubMed

Archampong, Timothy Na; Boyce, Ceejay L; Lartey, Margaret; Sagoe, Kwamena W; Obo-Akwa, Adjoa; Kenu, Ernest; Blackard, Jason T; Kwara, Awewura

2017-01-01

The presence of HBV resistance mutations upon initiation or during antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-coinfected patients is an important determinant of treatment response. The main objective of the study was to determine the prevalence of HBV resistance mutations in antiretroviral treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HBV-HIV-coinfected Ghanaian patients with detectable HBV viraemia. HBV-HIV-coinfected patients who were ART-naive or had received at least 9 months of lamivudine (3TC)-containing ART were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Demographic and clinical data were collected and HBV DNA quantified. Partial HBV sequences were amplified by PCR and sequenced bi-directionally to obtain a 2.1-2.2 kb fragment for phylogenetic analysis of HBV genotypes and evaluation of drug resistance mutations. Of the 100 HBV-HIV-coinfected study patients, 75 were successfully PCR-amplified, and 63 were successfully sequenced. Of these 63 patients, 27 (42.9%) were ART-experienced and 58 (92.1%) had HBV genotype E. No resistance mutations were observed in the 36 ART-naive patients, while 21 (77.8%) of 27 treatment-experienced patients had resistance mutations. All patients with resistance mutations had no tenofovir in their regimens, and 80% of them had HIV RNA <40 copies/ml. The 3TC resistance mutations rtL180M and rtM204V were observed in 10 (47.6%) of the 21 patients, while 5 patients (23.8%) had rtV173L, rtL180M and rtM204V mutations. A high proportion of HBV-HIV-coinfected patients with detectable viraemia on 3TC-containing ART had resistance mutations despite good ART adherence as determined by HIV RNA suppression. This study emphasizes the need for dual therapy as part of a fully suppressive ART in all HBV-HIV-coinfected patients in Ghana.

A broad investigation of the HBV-mediated changes to primary hepatocyte physiology reveals HBV significantly alters metabolic pathways.

PubMed

Lamontagne, R Jason; Casciano, Jessica C; Bouchard, Michael J

2018-06-01

As the leading risk factor for the development of liver cancer, chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) represents a significant global health concern. Although an effective HBV vaccine exists, at least 240 million people are chronically infected with HBV worldwide. Therapeutic options for the treatment of chronic HBV remain limited, and none achieve an absolute cure. To develop novel therapeutic targets, a better understanding of the complex network of virus-host interactions is needed. Because of the central metabolic role of the liver, we assessed the metabolic impact of HBV infection as a means to identify viral dependency factors and metabolic pathways that could serve as novel points of therapeutic intervention. Primary rat hepatocytes were infected with a control adenovirus, an adenovirus expressing a greater-than-unit-length copy of the HBV genome, or an adenovirus expressing the HBV X protein (HBx). A panel of 369 metabolites was analyzed for HBV- or HBx-induced changes 24 and 48 h post infection. Pathway analysis was used to identify key metabolic pathways altered in the presence of HBV or HBx expression, and these findings were further supported through integration of publically available gene expression data. We observed distinct changes to multiple metabolites in the context of HBV replication or HBx expression. Interestingly, a panel of 7 metabolites (maltotriose, maltose, myristate [14:0], arachidate [20:0], 3-hydroxybutyrate [BHBA], myo-inositol, and 2-palmitoylglycerol [16,0]) were altered by both HBV and HBx at both time points. In addition, incorporation of data from a transcriptome-based dataset allowed us to identify metabolic pathways, including long chain fatty acid metabolism, glycolysis, and glycogen metabolism, that were significantly altered by HBV and HBx. Because the liver is a central regulator of metabolic processes, it is important to understand how HBV replication and HBV protein expression affects the metabolic function of

Combination of lumped hydrological and remote-sensing models to evaluate water resources in a semi-arid high altitude ungauged watershed of Sierra Nevada (Southern Spain).

PubMed

Jódar, J; Carpintero, E; Martos-Rosillo, S; Ruiz-Constán, A; Marín-Lechado, C; Cabrera-Arrabal, J A; Navarrete-Mazariegos, E; González-Ramón, A; Lambán, L J; Herrera, C; González-Dugo, M P

2018-06-01

Assessing water resources in high mountain semi-arid zones is essential to be able to manage and plan the use of these resources downstream where they are used. However, it is not easy to manage an unknown resource, a situation that is common in the vast majority of high mountain hydrological basins. In the present work, the discharge flow in an ungauged basin is estimated using the hydrological parameters of an HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model calibrated in a "neighboring gauged basin". The results of the hydrological simulation obtained in terms of average annual discharge are validated using the VI-ETo model. This model relates a simple hydrological balance to the discharge of the basin with the evaporation of the vegetal cover of the soil, and this to the SAVI index, which is obtained remotely by means of satellite images. The results of the modeling for both basins underscore the role of the underground discharge in the total discharge of the hydrological system. This is the result of the deglaciation process suffered by the high mountain areas of the Mediterranean arc. This process increases the infiltration capacity of the terrain, the recharge and therefore the discharge of the aquifers that make up the glacial and periglacial sediments that remain exposed on the surface as witnesses of what was the last glaciation. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire

2018-01-01

Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

DOE PAGES

Goyal, Ashish; Murray, John M.

2017-04-23

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBVmore » mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.« less

Roadmap to control HBV and HDV epidemics in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goyal, Ashish; Murray, John M.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in China. Almost 10% of HBV infected individuals are also infected with hepatitis D virus (HDV) which has a 5–10 times higher mortality rate than HBV mono-infection. The aim of this manuscript is to devise strategies that can not only control HBV infections but also HDV infections in China under the current health care budget in an optimal manner. Furthermore, using a mathematical model, an annual budget of 10 billion dollars was optimally allocated among five interventions namely, testing and HBV adult vaccination, treatment for mono-infected and dually-infected individuals, second line treatment for HBVmore » mono-infections, and awareness programs. As a result, we determine that the optimal strategy is to test and treat both infections as early as possible while applying awareness programs at full intensity. Under this strategy, an additional 19.8 million HBV, 1.9 million HDV infections and 0.25 million lives will be saved over the next 10 years at a cost-savings of 79 billion dollars than performing no intervention. Introduction of second line treatment does not add a significant economic burden yet prevents 1.4 million new HBV infections and 15,000 new HDV infections. In conclusion, test and treatment programs are highly efficient in reducing HBV and HDV prevalence in the population. Under the current health budget in China, not only test and treat programs but awareness programs and second line treatment can also be implemented that minimizes prevalence and mortality, and maximizes economic benefits.« less

Update Treatment for HBV Infection and Persistent Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Prospect for an HBV Cure.

PubMed

Yoo, Joseph; Hann, Hie-Won; Coben, Robert; Conn, Mitchell; DiMarino, Anthony J

2018-04-20

Since the discovery of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) by Blumberg et al. in 1965, its genome, sequence, epidemiology, and hepatocarcinogenesis have been elucidated. Globally, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is still responsible for the majority of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCC is the sixth-most common cancer in the world and the second-most common cancer death. The ultimate goal of treating HBV infection is the prevention of HCC. Fortunately, anti-HBV treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs), which began with lamivudine in 1998, has resulted in remarkable improvements in the survival of patients with chronic hepatitis B and a reduced incidence of HCC. These results were documented with lamivudine, entecavir, and tenofovir. Nonetheless, as the duration of antiviral treatment increases, the risk for HCC still remains despite undetectable HBV DNA in serum, as reported by different investigators with observation up to 4⁻5 years. In our own experience, we are witnessing the development of HCC in patients who have received antiviral treatment. Some have enjoyed negative serum HBV DNA for over 12 years before developing HCC. Current treatment with NAs can effectively suppress the replication of the virus but cannot eradicate the covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) that is within the nucleus of hepatocytes. There still remains a great need for a cure for HBV. Fortunately, several compounds have been identified that have the potential to eradicate HBV, and there are ongoing clinical trials in progress in their early stages.

NTCP-Reconstituted In Vitro HBV Infection System.

PubMed

Sun, Yinyan; Qi, Yonghe; Peng, Bo; Li, Wenhui

2017-01-01

Sodium taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide (NTCP) has been identified as a functional receptor for hepatitis B virus (HBV). Expressing human NTCP in human hepatoma HepG2 cells (HepG2-NTCP) renders these cells susceptible for HBV infection. The HepG2-NTCP stably transfected cell line provides a much-needed and easily accessible platform for studying the virus. HepG2-NTCP cells could also be used to identify chemicals targeting key steps of the virus life cycle including HBV covalent closed circular (ccc) DNA, and enable the development of novel antivirals against the infection.Many factors may contribute to the efficiency of HBV infection on HepG2-NTCP cells, with clonal differences among cell line isolates, the source of viral inoculum, and infection medium among the most critical ones. Here, we provide detailed protocols for efficient HBV infection of HepG2-NTCP cells in culture; generation and selection of single cell clones of HepG2-NTCP; production of infectious HBV virion stock through DNA transfection of recombinant plasmid that enables studying primary clinical HBV isolates; and assessing the infection with immunostaining of HBV antigens and Southern blot analysis of HBV cccDNA.

Clinical outcomes of liver transplantation for HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma: data from the NIH HBV OLT study.

PubMed

Han, Steven-Huy; Reddy, K Rajender; Keeffe, Emmet B; Soldevila-Pico, Consuelo; Gish, Robert; Chung, Raymond T; Degertekin, Bulent; Lok, Anna

2011-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an indication for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in patients with tumor stage within the United Network for Organ Sharing criteria. The number of patients listed for HBV-related HCC is increasing, while the number of patients listed for HBV-related cirrhosis is declining presumptively because of the availability of more effective oral nucleos(t)ide analogues. This study presents the final, long-term outcome of patients transplanted for HBV-related HCC in the National Institutes of Health (NIH) HBV OLT Study Group. Ninety-eight patients (52.4%) in the NIH HBV OLT cohort underwent OLT for HBV-related HCC. With a mean follow-up of 36.5 months post-OLT, 12 (12.2%) patients developed recurrence of HCC. Multivariate analysis did not find a statistically significant role of gender, tumor stage at OLT, pre-OLT HCC treatment, recurrence of HBV, or duration of HCC diagnosis pre-OLT in predicting HCC recurrence. Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level >200 ng/mL at transplant was found to be statistically significant in predicting HCC recurrence (p=0.003). HCC recurrence was significantly associated with decreased post-OLT survival. HCC is the most common indication for OLT in patients with chronic hepatitis B in the era of more effective oral antivirals. Serum AFP at the time of OLT is significantly associated with HCC recurrence. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

Spinoculation Enhances HBV Infection in NTCP-Reconstituted Hepatocytes.

PubMed

Yan, Ran; Zhang, Yongmei; Cai, Dawei; Liu, Yuanjie; Cuconati, Andrea; Guo, Haitao

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and its sequelae remain a major public health burden, but both HBV basic research and the development of antiviral therapeutics have been hindered by the lack of an efficient in vitro infection system. Recently, sodium taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide (NTCP) has been identified as the HBV receptor. We herein report that we established a NTCP-complemented HepG2 cell line (HepG2-NTCP12) that supports HBV infection, albeit at a low infectivity level following the reported infection procedures. In our attempts to optimize the infection conditions, we found that the centrifugation of HepG2-NTCP12 cells during HBV inoculation (termed "spinoculation") significantly enhanced the virus infectivity. Moreover, the infection level gradually increased with accelerated speed of spinoculation up to 1,000g tested. However, the enhancement of HBV infection was not significantly dependent upon the duration of centrifugation. Furthermore, covalently closed circular (ccc) DNA was detected in infected cells under optimized infection condition by conventional Southern blot, suggesting a successful establishment of HBV infection after spinoculation. Finally, the parental HepG2 cells remained uninfected under HBV spinoculation, and HBV entry inhibitors targeting NTCP blocked HBV infection when cells were spinoculated, suggesting the authentic virus entry mechanism is unaltered under centrifugal inoculation. Our data suggest that spinoculation could serve as a standard protocol for enhancing the efficiency of HBV infection in vitro.

HBV Genotypic Variability in Cuba

PubMed Central

Loureiro, Carmen L.; Aguilar, Julio C.; Aguiar, Jorge; Muzio, Verena; Pentón, Eduardo; Garcia, Daymir; Guillen, Gerardo; Pujol, Flor H.

2015-01-01

The genetic diversity of HBV in human population is often a reflection of its genetic admixture. The aim of this study was to explore the genotypic diversity of HBV in Cuba. The S genomic region of Cuban HBV isolates was sequenced and for selected isolates the complete genome or precore-core sequence was analyzed. The most frequent genotype was A (167/250, 67%), mainly A2 (149, 60%) but also A1 and one A4. A total of 77 isolates were classified as genotype D (31%), with co-circulation of several subgenotypes (56 D4, 2 D1, 5 D2, 7 D3/6 and 7 D7). Three isolates belonged to genotype E, two to H and one to B3. Complete genome sequence analysis of selected isolates confirmed the phylogenetic analysis performed with the S region. Mutations or polymorphisms in precore region were more common among genotype D compared to genotype A isolates. The HBV genotypic distribution in this Caribbean island correlates with the Y lineage genetic background of the population, where a European and African origin prevails. HBV genotypes E, B3 and H isolates might represent more recent introductions. PMID:25742179

netherland hydrological modeling instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

2012-04-01

Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

Spinoculation Enhances HBV Infection in NTCP-Reconstituted Hepatocytes

PubMed Central

Yan, Ran; Zhang, Yongmei; Cai, Dawei; Liu, Yuanjie; Cuconati, Andrea; Guo, Haitao

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and its sequelae remain a major public health burden, but both HBV basic research and the development of antiviral therapeutics have been hindered by the lack of an efficient in vitro infection system. Recently, sodium taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide (NTCP) has been identified as the HBV receptor. We herein report that we established a NTCP-complemented HepG2 cell line (HepG2-NTCP12) that supports HBV infection, albeit at a low infectivity level following the reported infection procedures. In our attempts to optimize the infection conditions, we found that the centrifugation of HepG2-NTCP12 cells during HBV inoculation (termed “spinoculation”) significantly enhanced the virus infectivity. Moreover, the infection level gradually increased with accelerated speed of spinoculation up to 1,000g tested. However, the enhancement of HBV infection was not significantly dependent upon the duration of centrifugation. Furthermore, covalently closed circular (ccc) DNA was detected in infected cells under optimized infection condition by conventional Southern blot, suggesting a successful establishment of HBV infection after spinoculation. Finally, the parental HepG2 cells remained uninfected under HBV spinoculation, and HBV entry inhibitors targeting NTCP blocked HBV infection when cells were spinoculated, suggesting the authentic virus entry mechanism is unaltered under centrifugal inoculation. Our data suggest that spinoculation could serve as a standard protocol for enhancing the efficiency of HBV infection in vitro. PMID:26070202

Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2009-01-01

Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

The preS deletion of hepatitis B virus (HBV) is associated with liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic HBV infection.

PubMed

Li, Fan; Li, Xiaodong; Yan, Tao; Liu, Yan; Cheng, Yongqian; Xu, Zhihui; Shao, Qing; Liao, Hao; Huang, Pengyu; Li, Jin; Chen, Guo-Feng; Xu, Dongping

2018-03-01

Limited data are available regarding the association of hepatitis B virus (HBV) mutations with liver fibrosis in HBV infection. The study aimed to clarify whether HBV preS deletion mutation is associated with liver fibrosis progression. A total of 469 patients were enrolled, including 324 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 28 with HBV-related compensated liver cirrhosis (LC), and 117 with HBV-related decompensated LC. All CHB and compensated LC patients received liver biopsy. Fibrosis grade was assessed using METAVIR score. HBV preS deletion was determined by direct sequencing and verified by clonal sequencing. Overall preS deletion was detected in 12.6% (59/469) patients, specifically, in 7.51% (13/173), 10.60% (16/151), and 20.69% (30/145) of patients with no-to-mild liver fibrosis (F0-1), moderate-to-severe liver fibrosis (F2-3), and cirrhosis (F4), respectively (p < 0.01). Patients with preS-deleted HBV had lower serum HBV DNA and albumin levels compared to patients with wild-type HBV. The median length of preS deletion was 39-base pairs (bp) (3-204 bp) and the deletion most frequently emerged in preS2 initial region. Multivariate analysis identified the preS2 deletion rather than preS1 deletion to be an independent risk factor of significant fibrosis, i.e., METAVIR F ≥ 2 (p = 0.007). In addition, preS-deleted viral sequences were detected in the pool of intrahepatic HBV covalently closed circular DNA. HBV preS deletion is positively associated with liver fibrosis progression in chronic HBV-infected patients. HBV preS2 deletion may serve as a warning indicator for liver fibrosis progression.

Association of preS/S Mutations with Occult Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Infection in South Korea: Transmission Potential of Distinct Occult HBV Variants

PubMed Central

Kim, Hong; Kim, Bum-Joon

2015-01-01

Occult hepatitis B virus infection (HBV) is characterized by HBV DNA positivity but HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity. Occult HBV infection is associated with a risk of HBV transmission through blood transfusion, hemodialysis, and liver transplantation. Furthermore, occult HBV infection contributes to the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We recently reported the characteristic molecular features of mutations in the preS/S regions among Korean individuals with occult infections caused by HBV genotype C2; the variants of preS and S related to severe liver diseases among chronically infected patients were also responsible for the majority of HBV occult infections. We also reported that HBsAg variants from occult-infected Korean individuals exhibit lower HBsAg secretion capacity but not reduced HBV DNA levels. In addition, these variants exhibit increased ROS-inducing capacity compared with the wild-type strain, linking HBV occult infections to liver cell damage. Taken together, our previous reports suggest the transmission potential of distinct HBV occult infection-related variants in South Korea. PMID:26084041

Association of preS/S Mutations with Occult Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Infection in South Korea: Transmission Potential of Distinct Occult HBV Variants.

PubMed

Kim, Hong; Kim, Bum-Joon

2015-06-15

Occult hepatitis B virus infection (HBV) is characterized by HBV DNA positivity but HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity. Occult HBV infection is associated with a risk of HBV transmission through blood transfusion, hemodialysis, and liver transplantation. Furthermore, occult HBV infection contributes to the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We recently reported the characteristic molecular features of mutations in the preS/S regions among Korean individuals with occult infections caused by HBV genotype C2; the variants of preS and S related to severe liver diseases among chronically infected patients were also responsible for the majority of HBV occult infections. We also reported that HBsAg variants from occult-infected Korean individuals exhibit lower HBsAg secretion capacity but not reduced HBV DNA levels. In addition, these variants exhibit increased ROS-inducing capacity compared with the wild-type strain, linking HBV occult infections to liver cell damage. Taken together, our previous reports suggest the transmission potential of distinct HBV occult infection-related variants in South Korea.

Hydrological modeling in forested systems

Treesearch

H.E. Golden; G.R. Evenson; S. Tian; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun

2015-01-01

Characterizing and quantifying interactions among components of the forest hydrological cycle is complex and usually requires a combination of field monitoring and modelling approaches (Weiler and McDonnell, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). Models are important tools for testing hypotheses, understanding hydrological processes and synthesizing experimental data...

The detection of (total and ccc) HBV DNA in liver transplant recipients with hepatitis B vaccine against HBV reinfection.

PubMed

Duan, Bin-Wei; Lu, Shi-Chun; Lai, Wei; Liu, Xue-En; Liu, Yuan

2015-01-01

To investigate the levels of hepatitis B virus total DNA (HBV DNA) and covalently closed circular (ccc) DNA in liver transplant recipients who received hepatitis B vaccination, including responders and non-responders, following liver transplantation due to hepatitis B-related diseases and to investigate the efficacy of hepatitis B immune reconstitution against HBV reinfection. Twenty responders and 34 non-responders were enrolled in the present study. The levels of HBV total DNA and ccc DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and the liver and plasma were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Fifty-three blood samples and 38 liver allograft tissues were acquired. For the responders, the mean serum titer for anti-HBs (antibodies against hepatitis B surface antigen) was 289 (46.64-1000) IU/ml. Also for the responders, HBV total DNA was detected in PBMCs for one recipient and in the liver for another recipient, but ccc DNA was not detected in either of those 2 recipients. For the non-responders, HBV total DNA was detected in PBMCS for 2 recipients, neither of whom had ccc DNA. Also for the non-responders, HBV total DNA was detected in the livers of 3 recipients, 2 of whom also had ccc DNA. All responders had discontinued hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG), and 13 responders had discontinued antiviral agents. One responder experienced HBV recurrence during the follow-up period. For the majority of liver transplant recipients, no HBV total DNA or ccc DNA was detected in the blood or liver. The lack of HBV total DNA and ccc DNA both in PBMCs and the liver in liver transplant recipients who received hepatitis B vaccination to prevent HBV reinfection should be a prerequisite for the withdrawal of HBIG and/or antiviral agents.

Towards the development of a multimodel hydrological ensemble prediction system for La Mojana, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochero, D.; Peña, J.; Anctil, F.; Boucher, M. A.; Nogales, J.; Reyes, N.

2016-12-01

The impacts of floods in Colombia during 2010 and 2011 as a result of ENSO in its cold phase (La Niña) marked a milestone in Colombian politics. In La Mojana region the balance was around 100,000 homeless and 3 km2 of flooded crops. We model the upstream basin of La Mojana (3600 km2 and a mean annual precipitation from 1000mm in valleys to 4500 mm in mountains). A forecasting system of at least three days in advance was judged prudent. This basin receives an streamflow highly regulated by multiple reservoirs that we model with a recurrent neural networks from 1 to 3-days ahead. For hydrological modeling purposes we use the GR4J, HBV, and SIMHYD models, records of daily precipitation, temperature, and streamflows, and 110 prediction scenarios of precipitation and temperature from Canada, USA, Brazil, and Europe extracted from the TIGGE database (MEPS). Calibration period is between January 2004 and August 2011. Validation from September to December 2011, taking as meteorological input the MEPS. We analised four alternative for the 3-day Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS) Calibration: 1) only the GR4J model and observed values, 2). as 1 but HBV and SIMHYD are included, 3). Simultaneous optimization of the three hydrological models based on the reliability maximisation and the CRPS minimisation using the multiobjective calibration, observed and forecasted temperature and precipitation from the MEPS and, 4). as 3 but adding the daily streamflow data assimilation. Results show that the use of multiple hydrological models is clearly advantageous but even more performing the simultaneous optimization of hydrological models in the probabilistic context directly. The results evolution of the MAE on the reliability diagram (MAE-RD) are 43%, 27%, 17% and 15% respectively for the four alternatives. Regarding CRPS, MAE results show that the probabilistic prediction improves the deterministic estimate based on the daily mean HEPS scenario, despite the improvement in

Terminology gap in hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

2016-04-01

Water is central to life on Earth. People have been trying to understand how water moves in the hydrosphere throughout the human history. In the 9th century BC, the famous Greek poet Homer described the hydrological cycle in Iliad as "okeanos whose stream bends back in a circle" with a belief that rivers are ocean-fed from subterranean seas. Later, Aristotle (4th century BC) claimed that most of the water came from underground caverns in which air was transformed into water. It was only until 1674, French scientist Perrault developed the correct concept of the water cycle. In modern times, scientists are interested in understanding the individual processes of the hydrological cycle with a keen focus on runoff which supplies water to rivers, lakes, and oceans. Currently, the prevailing concepts on runoff processes include 'infiltration excess runoff' and 'saturation excess runoff'. However, there is no term to describe another major runoff due to the excess beyond the soil water holding capacity (i.e., the field capacity). We argue that a new term should be introduced to fill this gap, and it could be called 'holding excess runoff' which is compatible with the convention. This new term is significant in correcting a half-century misnomer where 'holding excess runoff' has been incorrectly named as 'saturation excess runoff', which was introduced by the Xinanjiang model in China in 1960s. Similar concept has been adopted in many well-known hydrological models such as PDM and HBV in which the saturation refers to the field capacity. The term 'holding excess runoff' resolves such a common confusion in the hydrological community.

HBV-Associated Acute Liver Failure After Immunosuppression and Risk of Death.

PubMed

Karvellas, Constantine J; Cardoso, Filipe S; Gottfried, Michelle; Reddy, K Rajender; Hanje, A James; Ganger, Daniel; Lee, William M

2017-01-01

Acute liver failure (ALF) caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection can occur after immunosuppressive treatment and be fatal, although it might be preventable. We aimed to characterize the causes, clinical course, and short-term outcomes of HBV-associated ALF after immune-suppressive therapy, compared with patients with HBV-associated ALF without immunosuppression (control subjects). We performed a retrospective multicenter study of 156 consecutive patients diagnosed with HBV-associated ALF (22 with a solid or blood malignancy) enrolled in the Acute Liver Failure Study Group registry from January 1998 through April 2015. We collected data on results of serologic and hepatic biochemistry analyses, grade of hepatic encephalopathy, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and King's College criteria. We also collected data on clinical features, medical therapies, and complications in the first 7 days following study enrollment. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with transplant-free survival at 21 days in HBV-associated ALF (the primary outcome). Among patients with HBV-associated ALF, 28 cases (18%) occurred after immunosuppressive therapy (15 patients received systemic corticosteroids and 21 received chemotherapy); and 128 cases did not (control subjects, 82%). Significantly greater proportions of patients with HBV-associated ALF after immunosuppression were nonwhite persons, and had anemia or thrombocytopenia than controls (P < .02 for all). The serologic profile of HBV infection, severity of liver failure (based on MELD score), and complications (hepatic encephalopathy or need for mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, or renal replacement therapy) were similar between the groups (P > .17 for all). Factors associated with 21 day transplant-free survival were increased MELD score (odds ratio ∼OR, 0.894 (95% confidence interval 0.842-0.949 per increment), requirement for mechanical ventilation (OR 0.111(0.041-0.300), and immunosuppressive

Combined branched-DNA and conventional HBV PCR assays for detection of serum HBV-DNA in hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B patients.

PubMed

Ozdarendeli, Aykut; Toroman, Zulal Asci; Bulut, Yasemin; Demirbag, Kutbeddin; Kalkan, Ahmet; Ozden, Mehmet; Kilic, Suleyman Sirri

2006-01-01

Monitoring of HBV replication level is very useful for the management of patients with chronic HBV. However, the use of the correct tools to quantify HBV-DNA levels in serum and monitor the replication of HBV is of paramount importance in terms of diagnosis, and antiviral treatment of patients with chronic HBV infection. The aim of this study was to combine the bDNA assay and HBV PCR to improve detection of viremia the patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, 67 HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patients were analyzed to determine viremia level using bDNA and HBV PCR assays. Sixty-four patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B showed positivity by conventional HBV PCR, whereas 56 subjects with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B showed HBV-DNA levels by bDNA. The results indicated that it is reasonable to use the bDNA assay to determine HBV replicative activity first, and use conventional HBV-PCR for HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patient samples that are negative in bDNA assay.

A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2016-01-01

Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

[Anti-HBV effects of genetically engineered replication-defective HBV with combined expression of antisense RNA and dominant negative mutants of core protein and construction of first-generation packaging cell line for HBV vector].

PubMed

Sun, Dian Xing; Hu, Da Rong; Wu, Guang Hui; Hu, Xue Ling; Li, Juan; Fan, Gong Ren

2002-08-01

To explore the possibility of using HBV as a gene delivery vector, and to test the anti-HBV effects by intracellular combined expression of antisense RNA and dominant negative mutants of core protein. Full length of mutant HBV genome, which expresses core-partial P fusion protein and/or antisense RNA, was transfected into HepG2.2.15 cell lines. Positive clones were selected and mixed in respective groups with hygromycin in the culture medium. HBsAg and HBeAg, which exist in the culture medium, were tested by ELISA method. Intracellular HBc related HBV DNA was examined by dot blot hybridization. The existence of recombinant HBV virion in the culture medium was examined by PCR. Free of packaging signal, HBV genome, which express the HBV structural proteins including core, pol and preS/S proteins, was inserted into pCI-neo vector. HepG2 cell lines were employed to transfect with the construct. G418 selection was done at the concentration of 400mug/ml in the culture medium. The G418-resistant clones with the best expression of HBsAg and HBcAg were theoretically considered as packaging cell lines and propagated under the same conditions. It was transfected with plasmid pMEP-CPAS and then selected with G418 and hygromycin in the culture medium. The existence of recombinant HBV virion in the culture medium was examined by PCR. The mean inhibitory rates of HBsAg were 2.74% 3.83%, 40.08 2.05% (t=35.5, P<0.01), 66.54% 4.45% (t=42.3, P<0.01), and 73.68% 5.07% (t=51.9, P<0.01) in group 2.2.15-pMEP4, 2.2.15-CP, 2.2.15-SAS, and 2.2.15-CPAS, respectively. The mean inhibitory rates of HBeAg were 4.46% 4.25%, 52.86% 1.32% (t=36.2, P<0.01), 26.36% 1.69% (t=22.3, P<0.01), and 59.28% 2.10% (t=39.0, P<0.01), respectively. The inhibitory rates of HBc related HBV DNA were 0, 82.0%, 59.9%, and 96.6%, respectively. Recombinant HB virion was detectable in the culture medium of all the three treatment groups. G418-resistant HBV packaging cell line, which harbored an HBV mutant whose

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General

Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griessinger, Nena; Seibert, Jan; Magnusson, Jan; Jonas, Tobias

2016-09-01

In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is often a major contribution to runoff. Therefore, modeling snow processes is important when concerned with flood or drought forecasting, reservoir operation and inland waterway management. In this study, we address the question of how sensitive hydrological models are to the representation of snow cover dynamics and whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we have used the hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) in the version HBV-light, which has been applied in many hydrological studies and is also in use for operational purposes. While HBV originally follows a temperature-index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt, in this study the HBV model was modified to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model, which is also based on the temperature-index approach but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: (a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, (b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off and (c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid-elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model, which utilized data assimilation

Distribution of HBV genotypes in Poland.

PubMed

Świderska, Magdalena; Pawłowska, Małgorzata; Mazur, Włodzimierz; Tomasiewicz, Krzysztof; Simon, Krzysztof; Piekarska, Anna; Wawrzynowicz-Syczewska, Marta; Jaroszewicz, Jerzy; Rajewski, Paweł; Zasik, Ewelina; Murias-Bryłowska, Elżbieta; Pniewska, Anna; Halota, Waldemar; Flisiak, Robert

2015-05-01

To identify distribution of HBV genotypes in particular regions of Poland. The study included 270 treatment-naïve, HBV-infected individuals, enrolled in 7 centers of Poland. HBV genotyping was performed in 243 of them with the INNO-LiPA HBV Genotyping assay (Innogenetics). Genotype A present in 2/3 patients was demonstrated as the most predominant in Poland. It was followed by D (20%), H (5%) and mixed A + D (5%). Remaining patients were infected with genotype F, mixed D + G, A + C or D + F. Analysis of distribution demonstrated regional differences, with a higher rate of genotype D prevalence (about 30%) in the eastern (Białystok and Lublin) and south-western (Wrocław) parts compared to other regions, where the prevalence rate was below 15%. The highest prevalence of genotype A (exceeding 80%) was observed in central Poland (Bydgoszcz, Łódź). The presented data reveal the current distribution of HBV genotypes across Poland, which is the first and the largest such epidemiological analysis.

State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A. H.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-09-01

This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km2), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty.

The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM): A multi-scale, variable-complexity hydrological model for cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

There is a need for hydrological land surface schemes that can link to atmospheric models, provide hydrological prediction at multiple scales and guide the development of multiple objective water predictive systems. Distributed raster-based models suffer from an overrepresentation of topography, leading to wasted computational effort that increases uncertainty due to greater numbers of parameters and initial conditions. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) is a modular, multiphysics, spatially distributed modelling framework designed for representing hydrological processes, including those that operate in cold-regions. Unstructured meshes permit variable spatial resolution, allowing coarse resolutions at low spatial variability and fine resolutions as required. Model uncertainty is reduced by lessening the necessary computational elements relative to high-resolution rasters. CHM uses a novel multi-objective approach for unstructured triangular mesh generation that fulfills hydrologically important constraints (e.g., basin boundaries, water bodies, soil classification, land cover, elevation, and slope/aspect). This provides an efficient spatial representation of parameters and initial conditions, as well as well-formed and well-graded triangles that are suitable for numerical discretization. CHM uses high-quality open source libraries and high performance computing paradigms to provide a framework that allows for integrating current state-of-the-art process algorithms. The impact of changes to model structure, including individual algorithms, parameters, initial conditions, driving meteorology, and spatial/temporal discretization can be easily tested. Initial testing of CHM compared spatial scales and model complexity for a spring melt period at a sub-arctic mountain basin. The meshing algorithm reduced the total number of computational elements and preserved the spatial heterogeneity of predictions.

Hydrologic connectivity: Quantitative assessments of hydrologic-enforced drainage structures in an elevation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poppenga, Sandra K.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2016-01-01

Elevation data derived from light detection and ranging present challenges for hydrologic modeling as the elevation surface includes bridge decks and elevated road features overlaying culvert drainage structures. In reality, water is carried through these structures; however, in the elevation surface these features impede modeled overland surface flow. Thus, a hydrologically-enforced elevation surface is needed for hydrodynamic modeling. In the Delaware River Basin, hydrologic-enforcement techniques were used to modify elevations to simulate how constructed drainage structures allow overland surface flow. By calculating residuals between unfilled and filled elevation surfaces, artificially pooled depressions that formed upstream of constructed drainage structure features were defined, and elevation values were adjusted by generating transects at the location of the drainage structures. An assessment of each hydrologically-enforced drainage structure was conducted using field-surveyed culvert and bridge coordinates obtained from numerous public agencies, but it was discovered the disparate drainage structure datasets were not comprehensive enough to assess all remotely located depressions in need of hydrologic-enforcement. Alternatively, orthoimagery was interpreted to define drainage structures near each depression, and these locations were used as reference points for a quantitative hydrologic-enforcement assessment. The orthoimagery-interpreted reference points resulted in a larger corresponding sample size than the assessment between hydrologic-enforced transects and field-surveyed data. This assessment demonstrates the viability of rules-based hydrologic-enforcement that is needed to achieve hydrologic connectivity, which is valuable for hydrodynamic models in sensitive coastal regions. Hydrologic-enforced elevation data are also essential for merging with topographic/bathymetric elevation data that extend over vulnerable urbanized areas and dynamic coastal

The timing of hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunization relative to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis and the risk of HBV infection following HIV diagnosis.

PubMed

Landrum, Michael L; Hullsiek, Katherine Huppler; Chun, Helen M; Crum-Cianflone, Nancy F; Ganesan, Anuradha; Weintrob, Amy C; Barthel, R Vincent; O'Connell, Robert J; Agan, Brian K

2011-01-01

To assess associations between the timing of hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunization relative to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis and vaccine effectiveness, US Military HIV Natural History Study cohort participants without HBV infection at the time of HIV diagnosis were grouped by vaccination status, retrospectively followed from HIV diagnosis for incident HBV infection, and compared using Cox proportional hazards models. A positive vaccine response was defined as hepatitis B surface antibody level ≥ 10 IU/L. Of 1,877 participants enrolled between 1989 and 2008, 441 (23%) were vaccinated prior to HIV diagnosis. Eighty percent of those who received vaccine doses only before HIV diagnosis had a positive vaccine response, compared with 66% of those who received doses both before and after HIV and 41% of those who received doses only after HIV (P < 0.01 for both compared with persons vaccinated before HIV only). Compared with the unvaccinated, persons vaccinated only before HIV had reduced risk of HBV infection after HIV diagnosis (hazard ratio = 0.38, 95% confidence interval: 0.20, 0.75). No reduction in HBV infection risk was observed for other vaccination groups. These data suggest that completion of the vaccine series prior to HIV infection may be the optimal strategy for preventing this significant comorbid infection in HIV-infected persons.

[A quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction for detection of HBV covalently closed circular DNA in livers of the HBV infected patients].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-Rong; Qiu, Ning; Lu, Shi-Chun; Xiu, Dian-Rong; Yu, Jian-Guo; Li, Tong; Liu, Xue-En; Zhuang, Hui

2011-05-01

To establish and optimize a sensitive and specific quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method for detection of hepatitis B virus covalently closed circular DNA (HBV cccDNA) in liver tissue. Specific primers and probes were designed to detect HBV DNA (tDNA) and cccDNA. A series of plasmids (3.44 × 10(0) - 3.44 × 10(9) copies/µl) containing a full double-stranded copies of HBV genome (genotype C) were used to establish the standard curve of real-time PCR. Liver samples of 33 patients with HBV related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 13 Chronic hepatitis B patients (CHB) and 10 non-HBV patients were collected to verify the sensitivity and specificity of the assay. A fraction of extracted DNA was digested with a Plasmid-Safe ATP-dependent Dnase (PSAD) for HBV cccDNA detection and the remaining was used for tDNA and β-globin detection. The amount (copies/cell) of HBV cccDNA and tDNA were measured by a real-time PCR, using β-globin housekeeping gene as a quantitation standard. The standard curves of real-time PCR with a linear range of 3.44 × 10(0) to 3.44 × 10(9) copies/µl were established for detecting HBV cccDNA and tDNA, and both of the lowest detection limits of HBV cccDNA and tDNA were 3.44 × 10(0) copies/µl. The lowest quantitation levels of HBV cccDNA in liver tissues tested in 33 HBV related HCC patients and 13 CHB patients were 0.003 copies/cell and 0.031 copies/cell, respectively. HBV cccDNA and tDNA in liver tissue of 10 non-HBV patient appeared to be negative. The true positive rate was increasing through the digestion of HBV DNA by PSAD, and the analytic specificity of cccDNA detection improved by 7.24 × 10(2) times. Liver tissues of 2 patients were retested 5 times in the PCR for detecting cccDNA and the coefficient of variations on cycle threshold (Ct) were between 0.224% - 0.609%. A highly sensitive and specific quantitative real time PCR method for the detection of HBV cccDNA in liver tissue was established and could be used

A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

2006-12-01

The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

Occult HBV among Anti-HBc Alone: Mutation Analysis of an HBV Surface Gene and Pre-S Gene.

PubMed

Kim, Myeong Hee; Kang, So Young; Lee, Woo In

2017-05-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the molecular characteristics of occult hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in 'anti-HBc alone' subjects. Twenty-four patients with 'anti-HBc alone' and 20 control patients diagnosed with HBV were analyzed regarding S and pre-S gene mutations. All specimens were analyzed for HBs Ag, anti-HBc, and anti-HBs. For specimens with an anti-HBc alone, quantitative analysis of HBV DNA, as well as sequencing and mutation analysis of S and pre-S genes, were performed. A total 24 were analyzed for the S gene, and 14 were analyzed for the pre-S gene through sequencing. A total of 20 control patients were analyzed for S and pre-S gene simultaneously. Nineteen point mutations of the major hydrophilic region were found in six of 24 patients. Among them, three mutations, S114T, P127S/T, M133T, were detected in common. Only one mutation was found in five subjects of the control group; this mutation was not found in the occult HBV infection group, however. Pre-S mutations were detected in 10 patients, and mutations of site aa58-aa100 were detected in 9 patients. A mutation on D114E was simultaneously detected. Although five mutations from the control group were found at the same location (aa58-aa100), no mutations of occult HBV infection were detected. The prevalence of occult HBV infection is not low among 'anti-HBc alone' subjects. Variable mutations in the S gene and pre-S gene were associated with the occurrence of occult HBV infection. Further larger scale studies are required to determine the significance of newly detected mutations. © Copyright: Yonsei University College of Medicine 2017

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

1994-01-01

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

Genomic and oncogenic preference of HBV integration in hepatocellular carcinoma

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ling-Hao; Liu, Xiao; Yan, He-Xin; Li, Wei-Yang; Zeng, Xi; Yang, Yuan; Zhao, Jie; Liu, Shi-Ping; Zhuang, Xue-Han; Lin, Chuan; Qin, Chen-Jie; Zhao, Yi; Pan, Ze-Ya; Huang, Gang; Liu, Hui; Zhang, Jin; Wang, Ruo-Yu; Yang, Yun; Wen, Wen; Lv, Gui-Shuai; Zhang, Hui-Lu; Wu, Han; Huang, Shuai; Wang, Ming-Da; Tang, Liang; Cao, Hong-Zhi; Wang, Ling; Lee, Tin-Lap; Jiang, Hui; Tan, Ye-Xiong; Yuan, Sheng-Xian; Hou, Guo-Jun; Tao, Qi-Fei; Xu, Qin-Guo; Zhang, Xiu-Qing; Wu, Meng-Chao; Xu, Xun; Wang, Jun; Yang, Huan-Ming; Zhou, Wei-Ping; Wang, Hong-Yang

2016-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can integrate into the human genome, contributing to genomic instability and hepatocarcinogenesis. Here by conducting high-throughput viral integration detection and RNA sequencing, we identify 4,225 HBV integration events in tumour and adjacent non-tumour samples from 426 patients with HCC. We show that HBV is prone to integrate into rare fragile sites and functional genomic regions including CpG islands. We observe a distinct pattern in the preferential sites of HBV integration between tumour and non-tumour tissues. HBV insertional sites are significantly enriched in the proximity of telomeres in tumours. Recurrent HBV target genes are identified with few that overlap. The overall HBV integration frequency is much higher in tumour genomes of males than in females, with a significant enrichment of integration into chromosome 17. Furthermore, a cirrhosis-dependent HBV integration pattern is observed, affecting distinct targeted genes. Our data suggest that HBV integration has a high potential to drive oncogenic transformation. PMID:27703150

CRISPR/Cas9-based tools for targeted genome editing and replication control of HBV.

PubMed

Peng, Cheng; Lu, Mengji; Yang, Dongliang

2015-10-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major global health problem because current therapies rarely eliminate HBV infections to achieve a complete cure. A different treatment paradigm to effectively clear HBV infection and eradicate latent viral reservoirs is urgently required. In recent years, the development of a new RNA-guided gene-editing tool, the CRISPR/Cas9 (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats/CRISPR-associated nuclease 9) system, has greatly facilitated site-specific mutagenesis and represents a very promising potential therapeutic tool for diseases, including for eradication of invasive pathogens such as HBV. Here, we review recent advances in the use of CRISPR/Cas9, which is designed to target HBV specific DNA sequences to inhibit HBV replication and to induce viral genome mutation, in cell lines or animal models. Advantages, limitations and possible solutions, and proposed directions for future research are discussed to highlight the opportunities and challenges of CRISPR/Cas9 as a new, potentially curative therapy for chronic hepatitis B infection.

The Timing of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Immunization Relative to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Diagnosis and the Risk of HBV Infection Following HIV Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Landrum, Michael L.; Hullsiek, Katherine Huppler; Chun, Helen M.; Crum-Cianflone, Nancy F.; Ganesan, Anuradha; Weintrob, Amy C.; Barthel, R. Vincent; O'Connell, Robert J.; Agan, Brian K.

2011-01-01

To assess associations between the timing of hepatitis B virus (HBV) immunization relative to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis and vaccine effectiveness, US Military HIV Natural History Study cohort participants without HBV infection at the time of HIV diagnosis were grouped by vaccination status, retrospectively followed from HIV diagnosis for incident HBV infection, and compared using Cox proportional hazards models. A positive vaccine response was defined as hepatitis B surface antibody level ≥10 IU/L. Of 1,877 participants enrolled between 1989 and 2008, 441 (23%) were vaccinated prior to HIV diagnosis. Eighty percent of those who received vaccine doses only before HIV diagnosis had a positive vaccine response, compared with 66% of those who received doses both before and after HIV and 41% of those who received doses only after HIV (P < 0.01 for both compared with persons vaccinated before HIV only). Compared with the unvaccinated, persons vaccinated only before HIV had reduced risk of HBV infection after HIV diagnosis (hazard ratio = 0.38, 95% confidence interval: 0.20, 0.75). No reduction in HBV infection risk was observed for other vaccination groups. These data suggest that completion of the vaccine series prior to HIV infection may be the optimal strategy for preventing this significant comorbid infection in HIV-infected persons. PMID:21051446

Evolution of HBV S-gene in the backdrop of HDV co-infection.

PubMed

Baig, Samina; Abidi, Syed H; Azam, Zahid; Majid, Shahid; Khan, Saeed; Khanani, Muhammad R; Ali, Syed

2018-04-16

HBV-HDV co-infected people have a higher chance of developing cirrhosis, fulminant hepatitis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) compared to those infected only with HBV. The present study was conducted to investigate HBV genotypes and phylogeny among HBV mono-infected and HBV-HDV co-infected patients, as well as analyze mutations in the surface gene of HBV in mono-infected and co-infected patients. A total of 100 blood samples (50 co-infected with HBV and HDV, and 50 mono-infected with HBV only) were collected for this study. HBV DNA was extracted from patient sera and partial surface antigen gene was amplified from HBV genome using polymerase chain reaction. HBV S gene was sequenced from 49 mono-infected and 36 co-infected patients and analyzed to identify HBV genotypes and phylogenetic patterns. Subsequently, HBV S amino acid sequences were analyzed for mutational differences between sequences from mono- and co-infected patients. HBV genotype D was predominantly found in both mono-infected as well as co-infected patients. Phylogenetic analysis showed the divergence of HBV sequences, between mono- and co-infected patients, into two distinct clusters. HBV S gene mutation analysis revealed certain mutations in HBV-HDV co-infected subjects to be distinct from those found in mono-infected patients. This might indicate the evolution of HBV S gene under selection pressures generated from HDV coinfection. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Event-based hydrological modeling for detecting dominant hydrological process and suitable model strategy for semi-arid catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Pengnian; Li, Zhijia; Chen, Ji; Li, Qiaoling; Yao, Cheng

2016-11-01

To simulate the hydrological processes in semi-arid areas properly is still challenging. This study assesses the impact of different modeling strategies on simulating flood processes in semi-arid catchments. Four classic hydrological models, TOPMODEL, XINANJIANG (XAJ), SAC-SMA and TANK, were selected and applied to three semi-arid catchments in North China. Based on analysis and comparison of the simulation results of these classic models, four new flexible models were constructed and used to further investigate the suitability of various modeling strategies for semi-arid environments. Numerical experiments were also designed to examine the performances of the models. The results show that in semi-arid catchments a suitable model needs to include at least one nonlinear component to simulate the main process of surface runoff generation. If there are more than two nonlinear components in the hydrological model, they should be arranged in parallel, rather than in series. In addition, the results show that the parallel nonlinear components should be combined by multiplication rather than addition. Moreover, this study reveals that the key hydrological process over semi-arid catchments is the infiltration excess surface runoff, a non-linear component.

HBV Bypasses the Innate Immune Response and Does Not Protect HCV From Antiviral Activity of Interferon.

PubMed

Mutz, Pascal; Metz, Philippe; Lempp, Florian A; Bender, Silke; Qu, Bingqian; Schöneweis, Katrin; Seitz, Stefan; Tu, Thomas; Restuccia, Agnese; Frankish, Jamie; Dächert, Christopher; Schusser, Benjamin; Koschny, Ronald; Polychronidis, Georgios; Schemmer, Peter; Hoffmann, Katrin; Baumert, Thomas F; Binder, Marco; Urban, Stephan; Bartenschlager, Ralf

2018-05-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is sensitive to interferon (IFN)-based therapy, whereas hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is not. It is unclear whether HBV escapes detection by the IFN-mediated immune response or actively suppresses it. Moreover, little is known on how HBV and HCV influence each other in coinfected cells. We investigated interactions between HBV and the IFN-mediated immune response using HepaRG cells and primary human hepatocytes (PHHs). We analyzed the effects of HBV on HCV replication, and vice versa, at the single-cell level. PHHs were isolated from liver resection tissues from HBV-, HCV-, and human immunodeficiency virus-negative patients. Differentiated HepaRG cells overexpressing the HBV receptor sodium taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide (dHepaRGNTCP) and PHHs were infected with HBV. Huh7.5 cells were transfected with circular HBV DNA genomes resembling viral covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA), and subsequently infected with HCV; this served as a model of HBV and HCV coinfection. Cells were incubated with IFN inducers, or IFNs, and antiviral response and viral replication were analyzed by immune fluorescence, reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, and flow cytometry. HBV infection of dHepaRGNTCP cells and PHHs neither activated nor inhibited signaling via pattern recognition receptors. Incubation of dHepaRGNTCP cells and PHHs with IFN had little effect on HBV replication or levels of cccDNA. HBV infection of these cells did not inhibit JAK-STAT signaling or up-regulation of IFN-stimulated genes. In coinfected cells, HBV did not prevent IFN-induced suppression of HCV replication. In dHepaRGNTCP cells and PHHs, HBV evades the induction of IFN and IFN-induced antiviral effects. HBV infection does not rescue HCV from the IFN-mediated response. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tenofovir alafenamide demonstrates broad cross-genotype activity against wild-type HBV clinical isolates and maintains susceptibility to drug-resistant HBV isolates in vitro.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Miller, Michael D; Kitrinos, Kathryn M

2017-03-01

Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is a novel prodrug of tenofovir (TFV). This study evaluated the antiviral activity of TAF against wild-type genotype A-H HBV clinical isolates as well as adefovir-resistant, lamivudine-resistant, and entecavir-resistant HBV isolates. Full length HBV genomes or the polymerase/reverse transcriptase (pol/RT) region from treatment-naïve patients infected with HBV genotypes A-H were amplified and cloned into an expression vector under the control of a CMV promoter. In addition, 11 drug resistant HBV constructs were created by site-directed mutagenesis of a full length genotype D construct. Activity of TAF was measured by transfection of each construct into HepG2 cells and assessment of HBV DNA levels following treatment across a range of TAF concentrations. TAF activity in vitro was similar against wild-type genotype A-H HBV clinical isolates. All lamivudine- and entecavir-resistant isolates and 4/5 adefovir-resistant isolates were found to be sensitive to inhibition by TAF in vitro as compared to the wild-type isolate. The adefovir-resistant isolate rtA181V + rtN236T exhibited low-level reduced susceptibility to TAF. TAF is similarly active in vitro against wild-type genotype A-H HBV clinical isolates. The TAF sensitivity results for all drug-resistant isolates are consistent with what has been observed with the parent drug TFV. The in vitro cell-based HBV phenotyping assay results support the use of TAF in treatment of HBV infected subjects with diverse HBV genotypes, in both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced HBV infected patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Clark, Martyn; Arheimer, Berit; Hay, Lauren E.; McMillan, Hilary; Kiang, Julie E.; Seibert, Jan; Hakala, Kirsti; Bock, Andrew R.; Wagener, Thorsten; Farmer, William H.; Andreassian, Vazken; Attinger, Sabine; Viglione, Alberto; Knight, Rodney; Markstrom, Steven; Over, Thomas M.

2015-01-01

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

2018-05-01

Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

A simple topography-driven, calibration-free runoff generation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Birkel, C.; Hrachowitz, M.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Savenije, H. H. G.

2017-12-01

Determining the amount of runoff generation from rainfall occupies a central place in rainfall-runoff modelling. Moreover, reading landscapes and developing calibration-free runoff generation models that adequately reflect land surface heterogeneities remains the focus of much hydrological research. In this study, we created a new method to estimate runoff generation - HAND-based Storage Capacity curve (HSC) which uses a topographic index (HAND, Height Above the Nearest Drainage) to identify hydrological similarity and partially the saturated areas of catchments. We then coupled the HSC model with the Mass Curve Technique (MCT) method to estimate root zone storage capacity (SuMax), and obtained the calibration-free runoff generation model HSC-MCT. Both the two models (HSC and HSC-MCT) allow us to estimate runoff generation and simultaneously visualize the spatial dynamic of saturated area. We tested the two models in the data-rich Bruntland Burn (BB) experimental catchment in Scotland with an unusual time series of the field-mapped saturation area extent. The models were subsequently tested in 323 MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) catchments in the United States. HBV and TOPMODEL were used as benchmarks. We found that the HSC performed better in reproducing the spatio-temporal pattern of the observed saturated areas in the BB catchment compared with TOPMODEL which is based on the topographic wetness index (TWI). The HSC also outperformed HBV and TOPMODEL in the MOPEX catchments for both calibration and validation. Despite having no calibrated parameters, the HSC-MCT model also performed comparably well with the calibrated HBV and TOPMODEL, highlighting the robustness of the HSC model to both describe the spatial distribution of the root zone storage capacity and the efficiency of the MCT method to estimate the SuMax. Moreover, the HSC-MCT model facilitated effective visualization of the saturated area, which has the potential to be used for broader

Hydrological Modeling in Alaska with WRF-Hydro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmer, N. J.; Zavodsky, B.; Molthan, A.

2017-12-01

The operational National Water Model (NWM), implemented in August 2016, is an instantiation of the Weather Research and Forecasting hydrological extension package (WRF-Hydro). Currently, the NWM only covers the contiguous United States, but will be expanded to include an Alaska domain in the future. It is well known that Alaska presents several hydrological modeling challenges, including unique arctic/sub-arctic hydrological processes not observed elsewhere in the United States and a severe lack of in-situ observations for model initialization. This project sets up an experimental version of WRF-Hydro in Alaska mimicking the NWM to gauge the ability of WRF-Hydro to represent hydrological processes in Alaska and identify model calibration challenges. Recent and upcoming launches of hydrology-focused NASA satellite missions such as the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) expand the spatial and temporal coverage of observations in Alaska, so this study also lays the groundwork for assimilating these NASA datasets into WRF-Hydro in the future.

Transmission of HBV DNA Mediated by Ceramide-Triggered Extracellular Vesicles.

PubMed

Sanada, Takahiro; Hirata, Yuichi; Naito, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Naoki; Kikkawa, Yoshiaki; Ishida, Yuji; Yamasaki, Chihiro; Tateno, Chise; Ochiya, Takahiro; Kohara, Michinori

2017-03-01

An extracellular vesicle (EV) is a nanovesicle that shuttles proteins, nucleic acids, and lipids, thereby influencing cell behavior. A recent crop of reports have shown that EVs are involved in infectious biology, influencing host immunity and playing a role in the viral life cycle. In the present work, we investigated the EV-mediated transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We investigated the EV-mediated transmission of HBV infection by using a HBV infectious culture system that uses primary human hepatocytes derived from humanized chimeric mice (PXB-cells). Purified EVs were isolated by ultracentrifugation. To analyze the EVs and virions, we used stimulated emission depletion microscopy. Purified EVs from HBV-infected PXB-cells were shown to contain HBV DNA and to be capable of transmitting HBV DNA to naive PXB-cells. These HBV-DNA-transmitting EVs were shown to be generated through a ceramide-triggered EV production pathway. Furthermore, we showed that these HBV-DNA-transmitting EVs were resistant to antibody neutralization; stimulated emission depletion microscopy showed that EVs lacked hepatitis B surface antigen, the target of neutralizing antibodies. These findings suggest that EVs harbor a DNA cargo capable of transmitting viral DNA into hepatocytes during HBV infection, representing an additional antibody-neutralization-resistant route of HBV infection.

Evaluation of the Aptima HBV Quant assay vs. the COBAS TaqMan HBV test using the high pure system for the quantitation of HBV DNA in plasma and serum samples.

PubMed

Schalasta, Gunnar; Börner, Anna; Speicher, Andrea; Enders, Martin

2018-03-28

Proper management of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection requires monitoring of plasma or serum HBV DNA levels using a highly sensitive nucleic acid amplification test. Because commercially available assays differ in performance, we compared herein the performance of the Hologic Aptima HBV Quant assay (Aptima) to that of the Roche Cobas TaqMan HBV test for use with the high pure system (HPS/CTM). Assay performance was assessed using HBV reference panels as well as plasma and serum samples from chronically HBV-infected patients. Method correlation, analytical sensitivity, precision/reproducibility, linearity, bias and influence of genotype were evaluated. Data analysis was performed using linear regression, Deming correlation analysis and Bland-Altman analysis. Agreement between the assays for the two reference panels was good, with a difference in assay values vs. target <0.5 log. Qualitative assay results for 159 clinical samples showed good concordance (88.1%; κ=0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.651-0.845). For the 106 samples quantitated by both assays, viral load results were highly correlated (R=0.92) and differed on average by 0.09 log, with 95.3% of the samples being within the 95% limit of agreement of the assays. Linearity for viral loads 1-7 log was excellent for both assays (R2>0.98). The two assays had similar bias and precision across the different genotypes tested at low viral loads (25-1000 IU/mL). Aptima has a performance comparable with that of HPS/CTM, making it suitable for use for HBV infection monitoring. Aptima runs on a fully automated platform (the Panther system) and therefore offers a significantly improved workflow compared with HPS/CTM.

Evaluation of clinical sensitivity and specificity of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus, and human immunodeficiency Virus-1 by cobas MPX: Detection of occult HBV infection in an HBV-endemic area.

PubMed

Ha, Jihye; Park, Younhee; Kim, Hyon-Suk

2017-11-01

Transfusion-transmitted infectious diseases remain a major concern for blood safety, particularly with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Nucleic acid testing (NAT) in donor screening shortens the serologically negative window period and reduces virus transmission. The cobas MPX (Roche Molecular Systems, Inc., Branchburg, New Jersey) is a recently developed multiplex qualitative PCR system that enables the simultaneous detection of HBV, HCV, and HIV with improved sensitivity and throughput using cobas 6800 and 8800 instruments. The aim of this study was to conduct an evaluation of the clinical sensitivity and specificity of cobas MPX detection of HBV, HCV, and HIV in clinical specimens. Among samples referred for HBV, HCV, and HIV-1 quantification at Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, positive samples were selected to evaluate sensitivity. A total of 843 samples was tested using both cobas MPX and COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan Tests for HBV, HCV, and HIV-1 using the cobas 8800 system and a COBAS TaqMan 96 analyzer, respectively. Samples that showed discrepancies were confirmed by nested PCR. The cobas MPX achieved excellent sensitivity and specificity for the detection of HBV, HCV, and HIV-1 in clinical samples. We found that the lower limit of detection (LOD) of blood screening by NAT actually improves clinical sensitivity, and occult HBV infection prevalence among healthy employees of the hospital was rather high. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flexible hydrological modeling - Disaggregation from lumped catchment scale to higher spatial resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Quoc Quan; Willems, Patrick; Pannemans, Bart; Blanckaert, Joris; Pereira, Fernando; Nossent, Jiri; Cauwenberghs, Kris; Vansteenkiste, Thomas

2015-04-01

validation on spatial results was done for the groundwater head values at observation wells. To ensure that the lumped model can produce results as accurate as the spatially distributed models or close regardless to the number of parameters and implemented physical processes, it was checked whether the structure of the lumped models had to be adjusted. The concept has been implemented in a PCRaster - Python platform and tested for two Belgian case studies (catchments of the rivers Dijle and Grote Nete). So far, use is made of existing model structures (NAM, PDM, VHM and HBV). Acknowledgement: These results were obtained within the scope of research activities for the Flemish Environment Agency (VMM) - division Operational Water Management on "Next Generation hydrological modeling", in cooperation with IMDC consultants, and for Flanders Hydraulics Research (Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium) on "Effect of climate change on the hydrological regime of navigable watercourses in Belgium".

Assimilation of remote sensing observations into a continuous distributed hydrological model: impacts on the hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiolo, Paola; Gabellani, Simone; Campo, Lorenzo; Cenci, Luca; Silvestro, Francesco; Delogu, Fabio; Boni, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

2015-04-01

The reliable estimation of hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration, surface temperature) in space and time is of fundamental importance in operational hydrology to improve the forecast of the rainfall-runoff response of catchments and, consequently, flood predictions. Nowadays remote sensing can offer a chance to provide good space-time estimates of several hydrological variables and then improve hydrological model performances especially in environments with scarce in-situ data. This work investigates the impact of the assimilation of different remote sensing products on the hydrological cycle by using a continuous physically based distributed hydrological model. Three soil moisture products derived by ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) are used to update the model state variables. The satellite-derived products are assimilated into the hydrological model using different assimilation techniques: a simple nudging and the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Moreover two assimilation strategies are evaluated to assess the impact of assimilating the satellite products at model spatial resolution or at the satellite scale. The experiments are carried out for three Italian catchments on multi year period. The benefits on the model predictions of discharge, LST, evapotranspiration and soil moisture dynamics are tested and discussed.

The Role of Infected Cell Proliferation in the Clearance of Acute HBV Infection in Humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goyal, Ashish; Ribeiro, Ruy Miguel; Perelson, Alan S.

Around 90–95% of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected adults do not progress to the chronic phase and, instead, recover naturally. The strengths of the cytolytic and non-cytolytic immune responses are key players that decide the fate of acute HBV infection. In addition, it has been hypothesized that proliferation of infected cells resulting in uninfected progeny and/or cytokine-mediated degradation of covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) leading to the cure of infected cells are two major mechanisms assisting the adaptive immune response in the clearance of acute HBV infection in humans. We employed fitting of mathematical models to human acute infection datamore » together with physiological constraints to investigate the role of these hypothesized mechanisms in the clearance of infection. Results suggest that cellular proliferation of infected cells resulting in two uninfected cells is required to minimize the destruction of the liver during the clearance of acute HBV infection. In contrast, we find that a cytokine-mediated cure of infected cells alone is insufficient to clear acute HBV infection. Lastly, our modeling indicates that HBV clearance without lethal loss of liver mass is associated with the production of two uninfected cells upon proliferation of an infected cell.« less

The Role of Infected Cell Proliferation in the Clearance of Acute HBV Infection in Humans

DOE PAGES

Goyal, Ashish; Ribeiro, Ruy Miguel; Perelson, Alan S.

2017-11-18

Around 90–95% of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected adults do not progress to the chronic phase and, instead, recover naturally. The strengths of the cytolytic and non-cytolytic immune responses are key players that decide the fate of acute HBV infection. In addition, it has been hypothesized that proliferation of infected cells resulting in uninfected progeny and/or cytokine-mediated degradation of covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) leading to the cure of infected cells are two major mechanisms assisting the adaptive immune response in the clearance of acute HBV infection in humans. We employed fitting of mathematical models to human acute infection datamore » together with physiological constraints to investigate the role of these hypothesized mechanisms in the clearance of infection. Results suggest that cellular proliferation of infected cells resulting in two uninfected cells is required to minimize the destruction of the liver during the clearance of acute HBV infection. In contrast, we find that a cytokine-mediated cure of infected cells alone is insufficient to clear acute HBV infection. Lastly, our modeling indicates that HBV clearance without lethal loss of liver mass is associated with the production of two uninfected cells upon proliferation of an infected cell.« less

Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

2015-12-01

Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff

Liver-Targeted Anti-HBV Single-Stranded Oligonucleotides with Locked Nucleic Acid Potently Reduce HBV Gene Expression In Vivo.

PubMed

Javanbakht, Hassan; Mueller, Henrik; Walther, Johanna; Zhou, Xue; Lopez, Anaïs; Pattupara, Thushara; Blaising, Julie; Pedersen, Lykke; Albæk, Nanna; Jackerott, Malene; Shi, Tianlai; Ploix, Corinne; Driessen, Wouter; Persson, Robert; Ravn, Jacob; Young, John A T; Ottosen, Søren

2018-06-01

Chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) is an area of high unmet medical need. Current standard-of-care therapies only rarely lead to a functional cure, defined as durable hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss following treatment. The goal for next generation CHB therapies is to achieve a higher rate of functional cure with finite treatment duration. To address this urgent need, we are developing liver-targeted single-stranded oligonucleotide (SSO) therapeutics for CHB based on the locked nucleic acid (LNA) platform. These LNA-SSOs target hepatitis B virus (HBV) transcripts for RNase-H-mediated degradation. Here, we describe a HBV-specific LNA-SSO that effectively reduces intracellular viral mRNAs and viral antigens (HBsAg and HBeAg) over an extended time period in cultured human hepatoma cell lines that were infected with HBV with mean 50% effective concentration (EC 50 ) values ranging from 1.19 to 1.66 μM. To achieve liver-specific targeting and minimize kidney exposure, this LNA-SSO was conjugated to a cluster of three N-acetylgalactosamine (GalNAc) moieties that direct specific binding to the asialoglycoprotein receptor (ASGPR) expressed specifically on the surface of hepatocytes. The GalNAc-conjugated LNA-SSO showed a strikingly higher level of potency when tested in the AAV-HBV mouse model as compared with its non-conjugated counterpart. Remarkably, higher doses of GalNAc-conjugated LNA-SSO resulted in a rapid and long-lasting reduction of HBsAg to below the detection limit for quantification, i.e., by 3 log10 (p < 0.0003). This antiviral effect depended on a close match between the sequences of the LNA-SSO and its HBV target, indicating that the antiviral effect is not due to non-specific oligonucleotide-driven immune activation. These data support the development of LNA-SSO therapeutics for the treatment of CHB infection. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.

2017-12-01

Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

Episomal HBV persistence within transcribed host nuclear chromatin compartments involves HBx.

PubMed

Hensel, Kai O; Cantner, Franziska; Bangert, Felix; Wirth, Stefan; Postberg, Jan

2018-06-22

In hepatocyte nuclei, hepatitis B virus (HBV) genomes occur episomally as covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA). The HBV X protein (HBx) is required to initiate and maintain HBV replication. The functional nuclear localization of cccDNA and HBx remains unexplored. To identify virus-host genome interactions and the underlying nuclear landscape for the first time, we combined circular chromosome conformation capture (4C) with RNA-seq and ChIP-seq. Moreover, we studied HBx-binding to HBV episomes. In HBV-positive HepaRG hepatocytes, we observed preferential association of HBV episomes and HBx with actively transcribed nuclear domains on the host genome correlating in size with constrained topological units of chromatin. Interestingly, HBx alone occupied transcribed chromatin domains. Silencing of native HBx caused reduced episomal HBV stability. As part of the HBV episome, HBx might stabilize HBV episomal nuclear localization. Our observations may contribute to the understanding of long-term episomal stability and the facilitation of viral persistence. The exact mechanism by which HBx contributes to HBV nuclear persistence warrants further investigations.

Teaching hydrological modelling as a subsidiary subject

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hörmann, G.; Schmalz, B.; Fohrer, N.

2009-04-01

The department of hydrology and water resources management is part of the Ecology Center of Kiel University, an interdisciplinary research organization. We teach hydrology for geographers, biologists, agricultural engineers and ecologists. Hydrological modeling is part of the curriculum since 1988. It has moved from the subject for specialists to a basic component of all hydrological courses. During the first year, we focussed on in-depth teaching of theory and practice of one big model, but the students found it hard to follow and beyond practical problems. During the last years we switched to a broader, but more shallow policy. Modeling is now part of nearly all courses, but remains limited to mostly 2-4 days of teaching. We now present only very basic theory and leave it to the students to discover the details during the practical work with pre-installed data sets. The poster shows how the models SWAT, Hydrus, Coupmodel, SIMPEL and PC-Raster are embedded in the hydrological curriculum and what kind of problems we experienced in teaching.

Improved hydrological modeling using AGWA; incorporation of different management practices in hydrological modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vithanage, J.; Miller, S. N.; Paige, G. B.; Liu, T.

2017-12-01

We present a novel way to simulate the effects of rangeland management decisions in a GIS-based hydrologic modeling toolkit. We have implemented updates to the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) in which a landscape can be broken into management units (e.g., high intensity grazing, low intensity grazing, fire management, and unmanaged), each of which is assigned a different hydraulic conductivity (Ks) parameter in KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2). These updates are designed to provide modeling support to land managers tasked with rangeland watershed management planning and/or monitoring, and evaluation of water resources management. Changes to hydrologic processes and resulting hydrographs and sedigraphs are simulated within the AGWA framework. Case studies are presented in which a user selects various management scenarios and design storms, and the model identifies areas that become susceptible to change as a consequence of management decisions. The baseline (unmanaged) scenario is built using commonly available GIS data, after which the watershed is subdivided into management units. We used an array of design storms with various return periods and frequencies to evaluate the impact of management practices while changing the scale of watershed. Watershed parameters governing interception, infiltration, and surface runoff were determined with the aid of literature published on research studies carried out in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeast Arizona. We observed varied, but significant changes in hydrological responses (runoff) with different management practices as well with varied scales of watersheds. Results show that the toolkit can be used to quantify potential hydrologic change as a result of unitized land use decision-making.

Validation of a national hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

2016-10-01

Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

Prevalence of HBV and HBV vaccination coverage in health care workers of tertiary hospitals of Peshawar, Pakistan

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) may progress to serious consequences and increase dramatically beyond endemic dimensions that transmits to or from health care workers (HCWs) during routine investigation in their work places. Basic aim of this study was to canvass the safety of HCWs and determine the prevalence of HBV and its possible association with occupational and non-occupational risk factors. Hepatitis B vaccination coverage level and main barriers to vaccination were also taken in account. Results A total of 824 health care workers were randomly selected from three major hospitals of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Blood samples were analyzed in Department of Zoology, Kohat University of Science and Technology Kohat, and relevant information was obtained by means of preset questionnaire. HCWs in the studied hospitals showed 2.18% prevalence of positive HBV. Nurses and technicians were more prone to occupational exposure and to HBV infection. There was significant difference between vaccinated and non-vaccinated HCWs as well as between the doctors and all other categories. Barriers to complete vaccination, in spite of good knowledge of subjects in this regard were work pressure (39.8%), negligence (38.8%) un-affordability (20.9%), and unavailability (0.5%). Conclusions Special preventive measures (universal precaution and vaccination), which are fundamental way to protect HCW against HBV infection should be adopted. PMID:21645287

[Risk Management of HBV Reactivation: Construction of Check System].

PubMed

Tanaka, Yasuhito

2015-09-01

In recent years, reactivation of HBV in patients receiving cancer chemotherapy or immunosuppressive therapy has been a problem. Generally, HBV-DNA levels are elevated prior to HBsAg concentration, and then hepatic dysfunction is observed in the process of hepatitis by HBV reactivation. Therefore, the monitoring of HBV-DNA is useful for the prediction of hepatic dysfunction, and nucleoside/nucleoside analogue (NA) administration is able to prevent this HBV reactivation. According to these facts, "Guidelines for the Prevention of HBV Reactivation in Patients Receiving Immunosuppressive Therapy or Chemotherapy", 2009 (revised as "JSH Guidelines for the Management of Hepatitis B Virus Infection", 2013) is established, and the diagnostic algorithm of HBsAg, anti-HBc, anti-HBs, and HBV-DNA has relevant descriptions. Combination therapy with rituximab and steroid for malignant lymphoma has a high risk of leading to fulminant hepatitis and, consequently, the guidelines are widely followed in such cases. We introduced the improvement of electronic medical recording and ordering systems in collaboration with hepatologists, and such a system has been widely used. Although the monitoring of HBV-DNA levels is required every 1-3 months, the guidelines are not followed strictly in cases such as rheumatoid disease and solid tumors only with chemotherapy or steroid treatment. Since a DNA assay is complicated and expensive, cost-effective, time-saving, and highly sensitive/specific measurements are required as well. Therefore, Lumipulse HBsAg-HQ (CLIA method) with high sensitivity is expected to be used for the monitoring of HBV reactivation.

Evaluating the performance of remotely sensed and reanalysed precipitation data over West Africa using HBV light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jütten, Thomas; Jackisch, Dominik; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Eicker, Annette; Springer, Anne

2016-04-01

Water is one of the most crucial natural resources in West Africa, where the livelihoods of large parts of the population rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture. Therefore, the modelling of the water balance is an important tool to aid in water resource management. Precipitation is one of most important atmospheric drivers of hydrological models. However, ground-based observation networks are sparse in Western Africa and a further decline in station numbers due to a variety of reasons such as the deterioration of stations or political unrest has been observed in recent years. In ungauged river basins, or basins with insufficiently available precipitation data, several studies have shown that remotely sensed or reanalysed precipitation data may be used to compliment or replace missing information. However, the uncertainties of these datasets over Western Africa are not well examined and a need for further studies is apparent. For validation purposes, precipitation datasets are traditionally compared to in-situ ground measurements. This is not possible in ungauged basins. A new approach to assess the quality of satellite and reanalysis data which is gaining popularity among researchers compares different precipitation datasets using hydrological models. In this so-called hydrological evaluation, ground-truth data is no longer necessary in order to validate a product. The chosen model is calibrated for different precipitation products and the simulated streamflow generated for each product is compared to the measured streamflow. Multiple state of the art satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets with various spatial resolutions were used in this study, namely: CFSR (0.3125°), CHIRPS (0.05°), CMORPH (0.25°), PERSIANN (0.25°), RFE 2.0 (0.1°), TAMSAT (0.0375°), TRMM 3B42 v7 (0.25°) and TRMM 3B42RT (real time) (0.25°). These datasets were evaluated at the regional as well as local scale using the HBV light conceptual hydrological model for several basins

An unusual renal manifestation of chronic HBV infection.

PubMed

Aravindan, Ananthakrishnapuram; Yong, Jim; Killingsworth, Murray; Strasser, Simone; Suranyi, Michael

2010-08-01

Hepatitis B viral infection is usually a self-limiting disease in immunocompetent individuals. Chronic infection can be seen in up to 5% of infected patients. Renal manifestations of chronic HBV infection are usually glomerular. We describe here an uncommon presentation of a patient with chronic HBV infection with very high viral load and rapidly progressive renal failure. Renal biopsy showed features of tubulointerstitial nephritis and tubular epithelial inclusion bodies suggestive of HBV infection. Entecavir treatment slowed down the progression of his renal disease. Tubulointerstitial nephritis should be considered as a part of the differential diagnosis in patients with HBV infection. Early antiviral treatment may halt the progression of renal disease.

Can the super model (SUMO) method improve hydrological simulations? Exploratory tests with the GR hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles

2017-04-01

Errors made by hydrological models may come from a problem in parameter estimation, uncertainty on observed measurements, numerical problems and from the model conceptualization that simplifies the reality. Here we focus on this last issue of hydrological modeling. One of the solutions to reduce structural uncertainty is to use a multimodel method, taking advantage of the great number and the variability of existing hydrological models. In particular, because different models are not similarly good in all situations, using multimodel approaches can improve the robustness of modeled outputs. Traditionally, in hydrology, multimodel methods are based on the output of the model (the simulated flow series). The aim of this poster is to introduce a different approach based on the internal variables of the models. The method is inspired by the SUper MOdel (SUMO, van den Berge et al., 2011) developed for climatology. The idea of the SUMO method is to correct the internal variables of a model taking into account the values of the internal variables of (an)other model(s). This correction is made bilaterally between the different models. The ensemble of the different models constitutes a super model in which all the models exchange information on their internal variables with each other at each time step. Due to this continuity in the exchanges, this multimodel algorithm is more dynamic than traditional multimodel methods. The method will be first tested using two GR4J models (in a state-space representation) with different parameterizations. The results will be presented and compared to traditional multimodel methods that will serve as benchmarks. In the future, other rainfall-runoff models will be used in the super model. References van den Berge, L. A., Selten, F. M., Wiegerinck, W., and Duane, G. S. (2011). A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning. Earth System Dynamics, 2(1) :161-177.

A score model for predicting post-liver transplantation survival in HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma recipients: a single center 5-year experience.

PubMed

Wang, Li-Ying; Zheng, Shu-Sen; Xu, Xiao; Wang, Wei-Lin; Wu, Jian; Zhang, Min; Shen, Yan; Yan, Sheng; Xie, Hai-Yang; Chen, Xin-Hua; Jiang, Tian-An; Chen, Fen

2015-02-01

The prognostic prediction of liver transplantation (LT) guides the donor organ allocation. However, there is currently no satisfactory model to predict the recipients' outcome, especially for the patients with HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present study was to develop a quantitative assessment model for predicting the post-LT survival in HBV-related HCC patients. Two hundred and thirty-eight LT recipients at the Liver Transplant Center, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine between 2008 and 2013 were included in this study. Their post-LT prognosis was recorded and multiple risk factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses in Cox regression. The score model was as follows: 0.114X(Child-Pugh score)-0.002X(positive HBV DNA detection time)+0.647X(number of tumor nodules)+0.055X(max diameter of tumor nodules)+0.231XlnAFP+0.437X(tumor differentiation grade). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the scoring model for predicting the post-LT survival was 0.887. The cut-off value was 1.27, which was associated with a sensitivity of 72.5% and a specificity of 90.7%, respectively. The quantitative score model for predicting post-LT survival proved to be sensitive and specific.

Subdivision of Texas watersheds for hydrologic modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The purpose of this report is to present a set of findings and examples for subdivision of watersheds for hydrologic modeling. Three approaches were used to examine the impact of watershed subdivision on modeled hydrologic response: (1) An equal-area...

Resveratrol enhances HBV replication through activating Sirt1-PGC-1α-PPARα pathway.

PubMed

Shi, Yixian; Li, Yongjun; Huang, Chenjie; Ying, Lixiong; Xue, Jihua; Wu, Haicong; Chen, Zhi; Yang, Zhenggang

2016-04-21

The population of hepatitis B combined with a number of metabolic disorders is increasing significantly. Resveratrol (RSV) has been used as a preclinical drug for the treatment of the metabolic disorders. However, the impact of RSV on HBV replication remains unknown. In this study, the HBV-expressing hepatocelluar carcinoma cell line and mouse model created by hydrodynamic injection of viral DNA were used. We found that RSV activates Sirt1, which in turn deacetylates PGC-1α and subsequently increases the transcriptional activity of PPARα, leading to the enhanced HBV transcription and replication in vitro and in vivo. In addition, we found that this pathway is also required for fasting-induced HBV transcription. Taken together, this study identifies that RSV enhances HBV transcription and replication especially acting on the core promoter, which depends on Sirt1-PGC-1α-PPARα pathway. We conclude that RSV may exacerbate the progression of hepatitis B and that patients with hepatitis B infection should be cautious taking RSV as a dietary supplement.

Balancing model complexity and measurements in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van De Giesen, N.; Schoups, G.; Weijs, S. V.

2012-12-01

The Data Processing Inequality implies that hydrological modeling can only reduce, and never increase, the amount of information available in the original data used to formulate and calibrate hydrological models: I(X;Z(Y)) ≤ I(X;Y). Still, hydrologists around the world seem quite content building models for "their" watersheds to move our discipline forward. Hydrological models tend to have a hybrid character with respect to underlying physics. Most models make use of some well established physical principles, such as mass and energy balances. One could argue that such principles are based on many observations, and therefore add data. These physical principles, however, are applied to hydrological models that often contain concepts that have no direct counterpart in the observable physical universe, such as "buckets" or "reservoirs" that fill up and empty out over time. These not-so-physical concepts are more like the Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community. Within AI, one quickly came to the realization that by increasing model complexity, one could basically fit any dataset but that complexity should be controlled in order to be able to predict unseen events. The more data are available to train or calibrate the model, the more complex it can be. Many complexity control approaches exist in AI, with Solomonoff inductive inference being one of the first formal approaches, the Akaike Information Criterion the most popular, and Statistical Learning Theory arguably being the most comprehensive practical approach. In hydrology, complexity control has hardly been used so far. There are a number of reasons for that lack of interest, the more valid ones of which will be presented during the presentation. For starters, there are no readily available complexity measures for our models. Second, some unrealistic simplifications of the underlying complex physics tend to have a smoothing effect on possible model

Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

Effects of uncertainties in hydrological modelling. A case study of a mountainous catchment in Southern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjørn; Steinsland, Ingelin; Johansen, Stian Solvang; Petersen-Øverleir, Asgeir; Kolberg, Sjur

2016-05-01

In this study, we explore the effect of uncertainty and poor observation quality on hydrological model calibration and predictions. The Osali catchment in Western Norway was selected as case study and an elevation distributed HBV-model was used. We systematically evaluated the effect of accounting for uncertainty in parameters, precipitation input, temperature input and streamflow observations. For precipitation and temperature we accounted for the interpolation uncertainty, and for streamflow we accounted for rating curve uncertainty. Further, the effects of poorer quality of precipitation input and streamflow observations were explored. Less information about precipitation was obtained by excluding the nearest precipitation station from the analysis, while reduced information about the streamflow was obtained by omitting the highest and lowest streamflow observations when estimating the rating curve. The results showed that including uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature inputs has a negligible effect on the posterior distribution of parameters and for the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency for the predicted flows, while the reliability and the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) improves. Less information in precipitation input resulted in a shift in the water balance parameter Pcorr, a model producing smoother streamflow predictions, giving poorer NS and CRPS, but higher reliability. The effect of calibrating the hydrological model using streamflow observations based on different rating curves is mainly seen as variability in the water balance parameter Pcorr. When evaluating predictions, the best evaluation scores were not achieved for the rating curve used for calibration, but for rating curves giving smoother streamflow observations. Less information in streamflow influenced the water balance parameter Pcorr, and increased the spread in evaluation scores by giving both better and worse scores.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-specific short hairpin RNA is capable of reducing the formation of HBV covalently closed circular (CCC) DNA but has no effect on established CCC DNA in vitro.

PubMed

Starkey, Jason L; Chiari, Estelle F; Isom, Harriet C

2009-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) covalently closed circular (CCC) DNA is the source of HBV transcripts and persistence in chronically infected patients. The novel aspect of this study was to determine the effect of RNA interference (RNAi) on HBV CCC DNA when administered prior to establishment of HBV replication or during chronic HBV infection. HBV replication was initiated in HepG2 cells by transduction with HBV baculovirus. Subculture of HBV-expressing HepG2 cells at 10 days post-transduction generates a system in which HBV replication is ongoing and HBV is expressed largely from CCC DNA, thus simulating chronic HBV infection. HepG2 cells were transduced with short hairpin RNA (shRNA)-expressing baculovirus prior to initiation of HBV replication or during chronic HBV replication, and the levels of HBV RNA, HBV surface antigens (HBsAg) and replicative intermediates (RI), extracellular (EC) and CCC DNA species were measured. HBsAg, HBV RNA and DNA levels were markedly reduced until day 8 whether cells were transduced with shRNA prior to or during a chronic infection; however, the CCC DNA species were only affected when shRNA was administered prior to initiation of infection. We conclude that RNAi may have a therapeutic value for controlling HBV replication at the level of RI and EC DNA and for reducing establishment of CCC DNA during HBV infection. Our data support previous findings demonstrating the stability of HBV CCC DNA following antiviral therapy. This study also reports the development of a novel HBV baculovirus subculture system that can be used to evaluate antiviral effects on chronic HBV replication.

Comparison of clinical application of the Abbott HBV PCR kit and the VERSANT HBV DNA 3.0 test to measure serum hepatitis B virus DNA in Taiwanese patients.

PubMed

Yang, Jeng-Fu; Lin, Ya-Yun; Huang, Jee-Fu; Liu, Shu-Fen; Chu, Pei-Yu; Hsieh, Ming-Yen; Lin, Zu-Yau; Chen, Shinn-Cherng; Wang, Liang-Yen; Dai, Chia-Yen; Chuang, Wan-Long; Yu, Ming-Lung

2009-08-01

With an estimated 350-400 million people worldwide chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), and the subsequent serious complications caused by liver damage including cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma, HBV infection remains a global health issue, particularly in Taiwan, an HBV-hyperendemic area. Sensitive and accurate quantification of HBV DNA is necessary to monitor patients with chronic hepatitis B who are receiving antiviral therapy to determine treatment response and adapt therapy. We evaluated and compared the clinical performance of two HBV DNA assays based on different technologies: the RealArt HBV PCR Kit (Abbott HBV DNA PCR kit, real-time polymerase chain reaction assay, detection limit: 27 IU/mL) and the VERSANT bDNA 3.0 assay (Bayer, branched DNA signal amplification assay, detection limit: 357 IU/mL). Serum levels of HBV DNA in 173 chronic HBV carriers were determined using both the RealArt HBV PCR Kit and the VERSANT bDNA 3.0 test. Of the 173 samples analyzed for baseline viral load detection, HBV DNA was quantifiable in 147 patients (82.1%) by the RealArt HBV PCR Kit, which was significantly higher than the 92 (53.2%) samples quantified by the VERSANT bDNA 3.0 assay. A total of 86 (49.7%) samples were quantifiable by both assays, whereas 25 (14.5%) were below the detection limit of both assays. The HBV DNA quantification values measured by the RealArt HBV PCR Kit and the VERSANT bDNA 3.0 assay were positively correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient r = 0.932, p < 0.001). On average, the results derived from the RealArt HBV PCR Kit were 0.67 log lower than those of the VERSANT bDNA 3.0 assay. HBV DNA concentrations were significantly higher in 63 HBV e antigen (HBeAg)-seropositive patients than in 110 HBeAg-seronegative patients (5.42 +/- 2.34 logs vs. 3.21 +/- 2.27 logs, p < 0.001). The RealArt HBV PCR Kit is more sensitive and has a wider dynamic range than the VERSANT bDNA 3.0 assay in the clinical setting

Effects of HBV Genetic Variability on RNAi Strategies

PubMed Central

Panjaworayan, Nattanan; Brown, Chris M.

2011-01-01

RNAi strategies present promising antiviral strategies against HBV. RNAi strategies require base pairing between short RNAi effectors and targets in the HBV pregenome or other RNAs. Natural variation in HBV genotypes, quasispecies variation, or mutations selected by the RNAi strategy could potentially make these strategies less effective. However, current and proposed antiviral strategies against HBV are being, or could be, designed to avoid this. This would involve simultaneous targeting of multiple regions of the genome, or regions in which variation or mutation is not tolerated. RNAi strategies against single genotypes or against variable regions of the genome would need to have significant other advantages to be part of robust therapies. PMID:21760994

Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological

[Performance evaluation of Abbott RealTime HBV Quantification Kit for HBV viral load by real-time PCR].

PubMed

Kim, Myeong Hee; Cha, Choong Hwan; An, Dongheui; Choi, Sung Eun; Oh, Heung Bum

2008-04-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA quantification is necessary for starting and monitoring of antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B. This study was intended to assess the clinical performance of Abbott RealTime HBV Quantification kit (Abbott Laboratories, USA). The performance was evaluated in terms of precision, linearity, detection sensitivity, cross-reactivity, and carry-over. A correlation with the Real-Q HBV Quantification kit (BioSewoom Inc., Korea) was also examined using serum samples from 64 patients diagnosed with chronic hepatitis B and underwent lamivudine therapy in Asan Medical Center. We verified the trueness of the system by comparing the outputs with the assigned values of the BBI panel (BBI Diagnostics, USA). Within-run and between-run coefficients of variation (CV) were 3.56-4.71% and 3.03-4.98%, respectively. Linearity was manifested ranging from 53 to 10(9)copies/mL and the detection sensitivity was verified to be 51 copies/mL. None of hepatitis C virus showed cross-reactivity. No cross-contamination occurred when negative and positive samples were alternatively placed in a row. It showed a good correlation with the Real-Q HBV (r(2)=0.9609) and the test results for the BBI panel were also well agreed to the assigned values (r(2)=0.9933). The performance of Abbott RealTime HBV Quantification kit was excellent; thus, it should be widely used in starting and monitoring of antiviral therapy in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Advancing the Implementation of Hydrologic Models as Web-based Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahal, P.; Tarboton, D. G.; Castronova, A. M.

2017-12-01

Advanced computer simulations are required to understand hydrologic phenomenon such as rainfall-runoff response, groundwater hydrology, snow hydrology, etc. Building a hydrologic model instance to simulate a watershed requires investment in data (diverse geospatial datasets such as terrain, soil) and computer resources, typically demands a wide skill set from the analyst, and the workflow involved is often difficult to reproduce. This work introduces a web-based prototype infrastructure in the form of a web application that provides researchers with easy to use access to complete hydrological modeling functionality. This includes creating the necessary geospatial and forcing data, preparing input files for a model by applying complex data preprocessing, running the model for a user defined watershed, and saving the results to a web repository. The open source Tethys Platform was used to develop the web app front-end Graphical User Interface (GUI). We used HydroDS, a webservice that provides data preparation processing capability to support backend computations used by the app. Results are saved in HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. The TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model served as the example for which we developed a complete hydrologic modeling service to demonstrate the approach. The final product is a complete modeling system accessible through the web to create input files, and run the TOPKAPI hydrologic model for a watershed of interest. We are investigating similar functionality for the preparation of input to Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Key Words: hydrologic modeling, web services, hydrologic information system, HydroShare, HydroDS, Tethys Platform

An overview of molecular epidemiology of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in India.

PubMed

Datta, Sibnarayan

2008-12-19

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the major global public health problems. In India, HBsAg prevalence among general population ranges from 2% to 8%, placing India in intermediate HBV endemicity zone and the number of HBV carriers is estimated to be 50 million, forming the second largest global pool of chronic HBV infections. India is a vast country, comprised of multiracial communities with wide variations in ethnicity and cultural patterns, which is attributable to its geographical location, gene influx due to invasion and/or anthropological migrations in the past. Moreover, recent increase in trade, trafficking and use of illicit drugs has also considerably influenced the epidemiology of HBV, specifically in the eastern and north eastern parts of India. However, data on the molecular epidemiology of HBV in India is scanty. HBV genotypes A and D have been well documented from different parts of mainland India. Interestingly, in addition to genotypes A and D, genotype C having high nucleotide similarity with south East Asian subgenotype Cs/C1 strain, have been detected exclusively from eastern Indian HBV carriers, suggesting a recent introduction. Thus, compared to other parts of India, the molecular epidemiology of HBV is naturally distinct in eastern India. Very recently, taking the advantage of circulation of three distinct HBV genotypes within the population of eastern India, different aspects of HBV molecular epidemiology was studied that revealed very interesting results. In this study, the clinical significance of HBV genotypes, core promoter and precore mutations, possible routes of introduction of HBV genotype C in eastern India, the clinical implications of x gene variability, prevalence of the AFB1 induced p53 gene codon 249 mutation, the transmission potentiality of HBV among asymptomatic/inactive or occult HBV carriers and the genetic variability of HBV persisting in the PBL was investigated. In this manuscript, the information available on the

Interleukin 6 inhibits HBV entry through NTCP down regulation.

PubMed

Bouezzedine, Fidaa; Fardel, Olivier; Gripon, Philippe

2015-07-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health problem. Recently, the human liver bile acid transporter Na(+)/taurocholate cotransporting polypeptide (NTCP) has been identified as an HBV specific receptor. NTCP expression is known to be strongly regulated by IL-6. This study was aimed at characterizing the effect of IL-6 on HBV entry. HBV entry was inhibited by up to 90% when cells were pretreated with IL-6 as shown by a strong inhibition of long term HBsAg secretion. This effect was confirmed by showing a severe reduction of intracellular HBV cccDNA. In parallel, we observed a 98% decrease in NTCP mRNA steady state level and an 80% reduction in NTCP-mediated taurocholate uptake. IL-6-mediated inhibition of NTCP-mediated taurocholate uptake and viral entry exhibited similar dose-dependence and kinetics while restoration of NTCP expression suppressed the inhibitory effect of IL-6. NTCP-mediated HBV entry is therefore markedly inhibited by IL-6. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection of HBV genome in the plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells of Iranian HBsAg negative patients with HIV infection: occult HBV infection.

PubMed

Tajik, Zahra; Bokharaei-Salim, Farah; Ghorbani, Saied; Keyvani, Hossein; Esghaei, Maryam; Monavari, Seyed Hamidreza; Ataei-Pirkooh, Angila; Garshasbi, Saba; Donyavi, Tahereh; Fakhim, Atousa

2018-06-01

The presence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in the absence of traceable hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in the plasma specimen of patients is defined as occult HBV infection (OBI). This study aimed to detect HBV-DNA in the plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of Iranian HBsAg negative patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 172 patients with HIV infection from September 2015 to August 2017. The patients were tested for serological parameters (HBsAg, HBcAb, HBeAg and HBeAb) against HBV infection. Moreover, they were tested for HBV viral load (using COBAS TaqMan 48 Kit, Roche, USA) in plasma and the presence of the HBV genome in PBMC specimens using real-time PCR. The mean age of the patients was 35.4 ± 13.4 years. Of the 172 studied patients, 109 (63.4%) were male. In this study, 151 (87.8%) patients were negative for HBsAg, 111 (64.5%) patients were negative for all HBV infection serological markers, 9 (5.2%) patients were only positive for HBsAg and 29 (16.9%) patients were only positive for HBcAb. Moreover, five (3.3%) patients with HBsAg negative had OBI (in the plasma sample of four patients and PBMC specimens of all five patients, HBV-DNA was detected). The present study revealed that 3.3% of the patients with HIV infection had occult HBV infection. Presumably, designing prospective studies to identify this infection in patients with HIV infection is informative and valuable.

Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

Human impact parameterization in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Ward, Philip; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Portmann, Felix; Zhao, Fang; Gerten, Dieter; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Pokhrel, Yadu; Satoh, Yusuke; Gosling, Simon; Zaherpour, Jamal; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Human impacts on freshwater resources and hydrological features form the core of present-day water related hazards, like flooding, droughts, water scarcity, and water quality issues. Driven by the societal and scientific needs to correctly model such water related hazards a fair amount of resources has been invested over the past decades to represent human activities and their interactions with the hydrological cycle in global hydrological models (GHMs). Use of these GHMs - including the human dimension - is widespread, especially in water resources research. Evaluation or comparative assessments of the ability of such GHMs to represent real-world hydrological conditions are, unfortunately, however often limited to (near-)natural river basins. Such studies are, therefore, not able to test the model representation of human activities and its associated impact on estimates of freshwater resources or assessments of hydrological extremes. Studies that did perform a validation exercise - including the human dimension and looking into managed catchments - either focused only on one hydrological model, and/or incorporated only a few data points (i.e. river basins) for validation. To date, a comprehensive comparative analysis that evaluates whether and where incorporating the human dimension actually improves the performance of different GHMs with respect to their representation of real-world hydrological conditions and extremes is missing. The absence of such study limits the potential benchmarking of GHMs and their outcomes in hydrological hazard and risk assessments significantly, potentially hampering incorporation of GHMs and their modelling results in actual policy making and decision support with respect to water resources management. To address this issue, we evaluate in this study the performance of five state-of-the-art GHMs that include anthropogenic activities in their modelling scheme, with respect to their representation of monthly discharges and hydrological

Evolutionary dynamics of HBV-D1 genotype epidemic in Turkey.

PubMed

Ciccozzi, Massimo; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Equestre, Michele; Cella, Eleonora; Ebranati, Erika; Gabanelli, Elena; Villano, Umbertina; Bruni, Roberto; Yalcinkaya, Tulay; Tanzi, Elisabetta; Zehender, Gianguglielmo

2014-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV), is the leading cause of liver diseases infecting an estimated 240 million persons worldwide. The HBV prevalence rates are variables between different countries, with an high level of endemicity in the south-eastern part of Europe. Seven main HBV-D subgenotypes have been described until now (D1-D7). Turkey, seems to have played an important role in the penetration of HBV-D1 in the Mediterranean area. The importance of Turkey in the European epidemiology of HBV is also suggested by the observation that the highest spread of HBV infection in the Continent are reported in Turkey with Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Albania and some southern regions of Italy. In this paper the molecular epidemiology and the epidemiological history of HBV-D in Turkey was studied, by characterizing 34 new Turkish isolates and performing a phylogeographic reconstruction. By using a phylodynamic and phylogeographic Bayesian approach, the analysis suggested that HBV-D1 originated in Turkey about in the early 1940s. The large prevalence of D1 in comparison to the other subgenotypes in Turkey confirms the importance of this Country as epidemiological reservoir of HBV-D1 dispersion. The phylogeny suggests that after each initial introduction of the virus in a specific population, separate transmission clusters have been evolving along independent phylogenetic lineages. Better characterization and continuous monitoring of such groups are going to be crucial to understand in detail the epidemiology of HBV-D1 subgenotype in Turkey and to assess the efficacy of prevention, vaccination and therapy in controlling the epidemic. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Integrating hydrologic modeling web services with online data sharing to prepare, store, and execute models in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, T.; Tarboton, D. G.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Horsburgh, J. S.

2017-12-01

Web based apps, web services and online data and model sharing technology are becoming increasingly available to support research. This promises benefits in terms of collaboration, platform independence, transparency and reproducibility of modeling workflows and results. However, challenges still exist in real application of these capabilities and the programming skills researchers need to use them. In this research we combined hydrologic modeling web services with an online data and model sharing system to develop functionality to support reproducible hydrologic modeling work. We used HydroDS, a system that provides web services for input data preparation and execution of a snowmelt model, and HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. To make the web services easy to use, we developed a HydroShare app (based on the Tethys platform) to serve as a browser based user interface for HydroDS. In this integration, HydroDS receives web requests from the HydroShare app to process the data and execute the model. HydroShare supports storage and sharing of the results generated by HydroDS web services. The snowmelt modeling example served as a use case to test and evaluate this approach. We show that, after the integration, users can prepare model inputs or execute the model through the web user interface of the HydroShare app without writing program code. The model input/output files and metadata describing the model instance are stored and shared in HydroShare. These files include a Python script that is automatically generated by the HydroShare app to document and reproduce the model input preparation workflow. Once stored in HydroShare, inputs and results can be shared with other users, or published so that other users can directly discover, repeat or modify the modeling work. This approach provides a collaborative environment that integrates hydrologic web services with a data and model sharing

Evolutionary dynamics of HBV-D7 subgenotype in Tunisia.

PubMed

Ciccozzi, Massimo; Chaouch, Houda; Lo Presti, Alessandra; Taffon, Stefania; Villano, Umbertina; Equestre, Michele; Bruni, Roberto; Marcantonio, Cinzia; Tritarelli, Elena; Cella, Eleonora; Blasi, Aletheia; Aouni, Mahjoub; Letaief, Amel; Ciccaglione, Anna Rita

2017-03-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the main cause of diseases liver related infecting more than 200 milion persons worldwide. HBV infection shows high level of prevalence in South-East Europe and in Mediterranean basin. In Tunisia, a country with an intermediate level endemicity, HbsAg prevalence ranges from 2 to 5%. Most of the HBV isolates from Tunisia were classified as subgenotype D7 whose circulation is restricted to a specific area of North Africa including Maghreb region. In this paper, the phylogeny of HBV-D7 isolated from 38 Tunisian patients was investigated by analyzing the S gene region of HBV. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate the origin of the HBV-D7 in the country. The Tunisian D7 isolates were found to share a common ancestor whose origin was traced back to 1958. Population dynamics indicated that HBV-D7 epidemic in Tunisia grew exponentially from 1960s to 1990s. After that, the curve reached a plateau around the years 2000 likely due to the implementation of the infant vaccination program in 1996. Epidemiological data suggested that the exponential growth phase was likely sustained by intra-familial transmission events occurring during infancy. Further characterization of HBV-D7 isolates should be performed to evaluate, in the post-vaccination era, the emergence of new transmission routes, and to monitor the efficacy of the vaccination program. J. Med. Virol. 89:469-475, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fallon, Nevada FORGE Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blankenship, Doug; Sonnenthal, Eric

Archive contains thermal-mechanical simulation input/output files. Included are files which fall into the following categories: ( 1 ) Spreadsheets with various input parameter calculations ( 2 ) Final Simulation Inputs ( 3 ) Native-State Thermal-Hydrological Model Input File Folders ( 4 ) Native-State Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Model Input Files ( 5 ) THM Model Stimulation Cases See 'File Descriptions.xlsx' resource below for additional information on individual files.

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

2017-04-01

Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

Cyberinfrastructure to Support Collaborative and Reproducible Computational Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodall, J. L.; Castronova, A. M.; Bandaragoda, C.; Morsy, M. M.; Sadler, J. M.; Essawy, B.; Tarboton, D. G.; Malik, T.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Liu, Y.; Wang, S. W.

2017-12-01

Creating cyberinfrastructure to support reproducibility of computational hydrologic models is an important research challenge. Addressing this challenge requires open and reusable code and data with machine and human readable metadata, organized in ways that allow others to replicate results and verify published findings. Specific digital objects that must be tracked for reproducible computational hydrologic modeling include (1) raw initial datasets, (2) data processing scripts used to clean and organize the data, (3) processed model inputs, (4) model results, and (5) the model code with an itemization of all software dependencies and computational requirements. HydroShare is a cyberinfrastructure under active development designed to help users store, share, and publish digital research products in order to improve reproducibility in computational hydrology, with an architecture supporting hydrologic-specific resource metadata. Researchers can upload data required for modeling, add hydrology-specific metadata to these resources, and use the data directly within HydroShare.org for collaborative modeling using tools like CyberGIS, Sciunit-CLI, and JupyterHub that have been integrated with HydroShare to run models using notebooks, Docker containers, and cloud resources. Current research aims to implement the Structure For Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrologic model within HydroShare to support hypothesis-driven hydrologic modeling while also taking advantage of the HydroShare cyberinfrastructure. The goal of this integration is to create the cyberinfrastructure that supports hypothesis-driven model experimentation, education, and training efforts by lowering barriers to entry, reducing the time spent on informatics technology and software development, and supporting collaborative research within and across research groups.

[Characteristics of HBV transmission in families with HBsAg-positive fathers and familial clustering of HBV infection].

PubMed

Yang, Y; Jin, L; He, Y L; Liu, J F; Wang, J; Wang, K; Ma, X H; Li, Q; Feng, Y L; Yan, Z; Yi, R T; Chen, T Y; Zhao, Y R

2016-04-01

To investigate the characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission among family members in families with familial clustering of HBV infection and poor outcomes, as well as the prevalence and distribution characteristics of HBsAg in offspring with different parental HBsAg status. The general information of each member in families with poor outcomes were collected from 2007 to 2010, and serological test was performed to analyze the prevalence and distribution of HBsAg in family members. The chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was used to analyze and compare the sex of offspring and the prevalence of HBsAg in them in 266 nuclear families with different paternal and maternal HBsAg status. The positive rates of HBsAg in parents, siblings, children, and spouses of the probands were 20%, 88.2%, 76.8%, and 9.5%, respectively. The nuclear families with HBsAg-positive fathers and HBsAg-negative mothers had a significantly increased proportion of male offspring (male/female ratio = 2.02) compared with those with HBsAg-positive mothers and HBsAg-negative fathers (1.22) or those with HBsAg-negative fathers and mothers (0.96). In addition, in the nuclear families with HBsAg-positive fathers and HBsAg-negative mothers, the male offspring had a significantly higher HBsAg positive rate than female offspring (37.4% vs 13.8%), while in those with HBsAg-positive mothers and HBsAg-negative fathers or those with HBsAg-negative fathers and mothers, HBsAg positive rate showed no significant difference between male and female offspring. In families with familial clustering of HBV infection and poor outcomes, mother-to-child transmission is still the major route of HBV transmission, but father-to-child transmission also plays a role in HBV transmission in this special population. Positive HBsAg in fathers is associated with the increased proportion of male offspring, and father-to-son transmission of HBV is higher than father-to-daughter transmission.

Anti-hepatitis B virus (HBV) response of imiquimod based toll like receptor 7 ligand in hbv-positive human hepatocelluar carcinoma cell line.

PubMed

Das, Dipanwita; Sengupta, Isha; Sarkar, Neelakshi; Pal, Ananya; Saha, Debraj; Bandopadhyay, Manikankana; Das, Chandrima; Narayan, Jimmy; Singh, Shivaram Prasad; Chakrabarti, Sekhar; Chakravarty, Runu

2017-01-14

Toll like receptors (TLRs) play an important role in innate immunity and various studies suggest that TLRs play a crucial role in pathogenesis of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. The present study aims in looking into the status of crucial host and viral gene expression on inciting TLR7. The transcription of TLR7 pathway signaling molecules and HBV DNA viral load were quantified by Real Time-PCR after stimulation of TLR7 with its imiquimod based ligand, R837. Cell cycle analysis was performed using flow-cytometry. Expression of TLR7 and chief cell cycle regulator governing G1/S transition, p53 was also seen in liver biopsysss samples of CHB patients. HBV induced alteration in histone modifications in HepG2 cells and its restoration on TLR7 activation was determined using western blot. The TLR7 expression remains downregulated in HepG2.2.15 cells and in liver biopsy samples from CHB patients. Interestingly HBV DNA viral load showed an inverse relationship with the TLR7 expression in the biopsy samples. We also evaluated the anti-viral activity of R837, an agonist of TLR7. It was observed that there was a suppression of HBV replication and viral protein production upon TLR7 stimulation. R837 triggers the anti-viral action probably through the Jun N-terminal Kinase (JNK) pathway. We also observed a downregulation of histone H3K9Me3 repression mark upon R837 treatment in HBV replicating HepG2.2.15 cells, mimicking that of un-infected HepG2 cells. Additionally, the G1/S cell cycle arrest introduced by HBV in HepG2.2.15 cells was released upon ligand treatment. The study thus holds a close insight into the changes in hepatocyte micro-environment on TLR7 stimulation in HBV infection.

Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

2016-04-01

Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

Flood forecasting with DDD-application of a parsimonious hydrological model in operational flood forecasting in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Haddeland, Ingjerd

2014-05-01

A new parameter-parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) has been run operationally at the Norwegian Flood Forecasting Service for approximately a year. DDD has been calibrated for, altogether, 104 catchments throughout Norway, and provide runoff forecasts 8 days ahead on a daily temporal resolution driven by precipitation and temperature from the meteorological forecast models AROME (48 hrs) and EC (192 hrs). The current version of DDD differs from the standard model used for flood forecasting in Norway, the HBV model, in its description of the subsurface and runoff dynamics. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M, is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than the HBV model. Experiences using DDD show that especially the timing of flood peaks has improved considerably and in a comparison between DDD and HBV, when assessing timeseries of 64 years for 75 catchments, DDD had a higher hit rate and a lower false alarm rate than HBV. For flood peaks higher than the mean annual flood the median hit rate is 0.45 and 0.41 for the DDD and HBV models respectively. Corresponding number for the false alarm rate is 0.62 and 0.75 For floods over the five year return interval, the median hit rate is 0.29 and 0.28 for the DDD and HBV models, respectively with false alarm rates equal to 0.67 and 0.80. During 2014 the Norwegian flood forecasting service will run DDD operationally at a 3h temporal

OpenDA-WFLOW framework for improving hydrologic predictions using distributed hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Kockx, Arno; Hummel, Stef

2017-04-01

Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions (Liu et al., 2012) and increase the potential for early warning and/or smart water management. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not yet been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. The objective of this work is to highlight the development of a generic linkage of the open source OpenDA package and the open source community hydrologic modeling framework Openstreams/WFLOW and its application in operational hydrological forecasting on various spatial scales. The coupling between OpenDA and Openstreams/wflow framework is based on the emerging standard Basic Model Interface (BMI) as advocated by CSDMS using cross-platform webservices (i.e. Apache Thrift) developed by Hut et al. (2016). The potential application of the OpenDA-WFLOW for operational hydrologic forecasting including its integration with Delft-FEWS (used by more than 40 operational forecast centers around the world (Werner et al., 2013)) is demonstrated by the presented case studies. We will also highlight the possibility to give real-time insight into the working of the DA methods applied for supporting the forecaster as mentioned as one of the burning issues by Liu et al., (2012).

Analytical performance of the Hologic Aptima HBV Quant Assay and the COBAS Ampliprep/COBAS TaqMan HBV test v2.0 for the quantification of HBV DNA in plasma samples.

PubMed

Schønning, Kristian; Johansen, Kim; Nielsen, Lone Gilmor; Weis, Nina; Westh, Henrik

2018-07-01

Quantification of HBV DNA is used for initiating and monitoring antiviral treatment. Analytical test performance consequently impacts treatment decisions. To compare the analytical performance of the Aptima HBV Quant Assay (Aptima) and the COBAS Ampliprep/COBAS TaqMan HBV Test v2.0 (CAPCTMv2) for the quantification of HBV DNA in plasma samples. The performance of the two tests was compared on 129 prospective plasma samples, and on 63 archived plasma samples of which 53 were genotyped. Linearity of the two assays was assessed on dilutions series of three clinical samples (Genotype B, C, and D). Bland-Altman analysis of 120 clinical samples, which quantified in both tests, showed an average quantification bias (Aptima - CAPCTMv2) of -0.19 Log IU/mL (SD: 0.33 Log IU/mL). A single sample quantified more than three standard deviations higher in Aptima than in CAPCTMv2. Only minor differences were observed between genotype A (N = 4; average difference -0.01 Log IU/mL), B (N = 8; -0.13 Log IU/mL), C (N = 8; -0.31 Log IU/mL), D (N = 25; -0.22 Log IU/mL), and E (N = 7; -0.03 Log IU/mL). Deming regression showed that the two tests were excellently correlated (slope of the regression line 1.03; 95% CI: 0.998-1.068). Linearity of the tests was evaluated on dilution series and showed an excellent correlation of the two tests. Both tests were precise with %CV less than 3% for HBV DNA ≥3 Log IU/mL. The Aptima and CAPCTMv2 tests are highly correlated, and both tests are useful for monitoring patients chronically infected with HBV. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Hydrologic Predictions in the Anthropocene: Exploration with Co-evolutionary Socio-hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tian, Fuqiang; Liu, Dengfeng

2013-04-01

Socio-hydrology studies the co-evolution and self-organization of humans in the hydrologic landscape, which requires a thorough understanding of the complex interactions between humans and water. On the one hand, the nature of water availability greatly impacts the development of society. On the other hand, humans can significantly alter the spatio-temporal distribution of water and in this way provide feedback to the society itself. The human-water system functions underlying such complex human-water interactions are not well understood. Exploratory models with the appropriate level of simplification in any given area can be valuable to understand these functions and the self-organization associated with socio-hydrology. In this study, a simple coupled modeling framework for socio-hydrology co-evolution is developed, and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such models. In the Tarim River, humans depend heavily on agricultural production (other industries can be ignored for a start), and the social processes can be described principally by two variables, i.e., irrigated-area and human population. The eco-hydrological processes are expressed in terms of area under natural vegetation and stream discharge. The study area is the middle and the lower reaches of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units, i.e. middle reach and lower reach. In each modeling unit, four ordinary differential equations are used to simulate the dynamics of the hydrological system represented by stream discharge, ecological system represented by area under natural vegetation, the economic system represented by irrigated area under agriculture and social system represented by human population. The four dominant variables are coupled together by several internal variables. For example, the stream discharge is coupled to irrigated area by the colonization rate and mortality rate of the irrigated area in the middle reach and the irrigated area is coupled to stream

Revising Hydrology of a Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya; Butler, Adrian; McIntyre, Neil; Jackson, Christopher

2015-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSMs) are key elements in guiding adaptation to the changing water cycle and the starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. However, before this potential is realised, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. An important limitation is the simplistic or non-existent representation of the deep subsurface in LSMs; and another is the lack of connection of LSM parameterisations to relevant hydrological information. In this context, the paper uses a case study of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to the Kennet region in Southern England. The paper explores the assumptions behind JULES hydrology, adapts the model structure and optimises the coupling with the ZOOMQ3D regional groundwater model. The analysis illustrates how three types of information can be used to improve the model's hydrology: a) observations, b) regionalized information, and c) information from an independent physics-based model. It is found that: 1) coupling to the groundwater model allows realistic simulation of streamflows; 2) a simple dynamic lower boundary improves upon JULES' stationary unit gradient condition; 3) a 1D vertical flow in the unsaturated zone is sufficient; however there is benefit in introducing a simple dual soil moisture retention curve; 4) regionalized information can be used to describe soil spatial heterogeneity. It is concluded that relatively simple refinements to the hydrology of JULES and its parameterisation method can provide a substantial step forward in realising its potential as a high-resolution multi-purpose model.

Presence of anti-HBc is associated to high rates of HBV resolved infection and low threshold for Occult HBV Infection in HIV patients with negative HBsAg in Chile.

PubMed

Vargas, Jose Ignacio; Jensen, Daniela; Sarmiento, Valeska; Peirano, Felipe; Acuña, Pedro; Fuster, Felipe; Soto, Sabrina; Ahumada, Rodrigo; Huilcaman, Marco; Bruna, Mario; Jensen, Werner; Fuster, Francisco

2016-04-01

HBV-HIV coinfection is prevalent. Frequently, anti-HBc is the only serological marker of HBV, which can be indicative of HBV resolved infection, when found together with anti-HBs reactivity; or present as "isolated anti-HBc," related to HBV occult infection with presence of detectable DNA HBV, more prevalent in HIV-positive individuals. Regional data about this condition are scarce. Anti-HBc rapid test has been used as screening, but its performance has not been described in HIV-positive patients. The aim of this study was determine prevalence of anti-HBc in HIV-positive patients, serological pattern of HBV resolved infection and isolated anti-HBc, evaluating presence of HBV occult infection. Assess anti-HBc rapid test compared to ECLIA. Methods included measurement of anti-HBc and anti-HBs in HIV-positive patients with negative HBsAg. Serum HBV DNA quantification and HBV booster vaccination to "isolated anti-HBc" individuals. Detection of anti-HBc by rapid test and ECLIA. In 192 patients, prevalence of anti-HBc was 42.7% (82/192); associated to male gender, drug use, men-sex-men, positive-VDRL, and longer time HIV diagnosis. 34.4% (66/192) had presence of anti-HBs, mean titers of 637 ui/ml. Isolated anti-HBc in 8.3% (16/192), associated to detectable HIV viral load and no-use of HAART; in them, HBV DNA was undetectable, and 60% responded to HBV vaccination booster. Anti-HBc rapid test showed low sensibility (32.9%) compared to ECLIA. These results show that prevalence of anti-HBc in HIV-positive individuals is high, in most cases accompanied with anti-HBs as HBV resolved infection. Low prevalence of "isolated anti-HBc," with undetectable HBV DNA, and most had anamnestic response to HBV vaccination; suggest low possibility of occult HBV infection. Anti-HBc rapid test cannot be recommended as screening method for anti-HBc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

2015-12-01

HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

Inhibition of hepatitis B virus replication via HBV DNA cleavage by Cas9 from Staphylococcus aureus.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Zhao, Miaoxian; Gong, Mingxing; Xu, Ying; Xie, Cantao; Deng, Haohui; Li, Xueying; Wu, Hongkai; Wang, Zhanhui

2018-04-01

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is difficult to cure due to the presence of covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA). Accumulating evidence indicates that the CRISPR/Cas9 system effectively disrupts HBV genome, including cccDNA, in vitro and in vivo. However, efficient delivery of CRISPR/Cas9 system to the liver or hepatocytes using an adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector remains challenging due to the large size of Cas9 from Streptococcus pyogenes (Sp). The recently identified Cas9 protein from Staphylococcus aureus (Sa) is smaller than SpCas9 and thus is able to be packaged into the AAV vector. To examine the efficacy of SaCas9 system on HBV genome destruction, we designed 5 guide RNAs (gRNAs) that targeted different HBV genotypes, 3 of which were shown to be effective. The SaCas9 system significantly reduced HBV antigen expression, as well as pgRNA and cccDNA levels, in Huh7, HepG2.2.15 and HepAD38 cells. The dual expression of gRNAs/SaCas9 in these cell lines resulted in more efficient HBV genome cleavage. In the mouse model, hydrodynamic injection of gRNA/SaCas9 plasmids resulted in significantly lower levels of HBV protein expression. We also delivered the SaCas9 system into mice with persistent HBV replication using an AAV vector. Both the AAV vector and the mRNA of Cas9 could be detected in the C3H mouse liver cells. Decreased hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), HBV DNA and pgRNA levels were observed when a higher titer of AAV was injected, although this decrease was not significantly different from the control. In summary, the SaCas9 system accurately and efficiently targeted the HBV genome and inhibited HBV replication both in vitro and in vivo. The system was delivered by an AAV vector and maybe used as a novel therapeutic strategy against chronic HBV infection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Humic acid inhibits HBV-induced autophagosome formation and induces apoptosis in HBV-transfected Hep G2 cells

PubMed Central

Pant, Kishor; Yadav, Ajay K.; Gupta, Parul; Rathore, Abhishek Singh; Nayak, Baibaswata; Venugopal, Senthil K.

2016-01-01

Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) utilizes several mechanisms to survive in the host cells and one of the main pathways being autophagosome formation. Humic acid (HA), one of the major components of Mineral pitch, is an Ayurvedic medicinal food, commonly used by the people of the Himalayan regions of Nepal and India for various body ailments. We hypothesized that HA could induce cell death and inhibit HBV-induced autophagy in hepatic cells. Incubation of Hep G2.2.1.5 cells (HepG2 cells stably expressing HBV) with HA (100 μM) inhibited both cell proliferation and autophagosome formation significantly, while apoptosis induction was enhanced. Western blot results showed that HA incubation resulted in decreased levels of beclin-1, SIRT-1 and c-myc, while caspase-3 and β-catenin expression were up-regulated. Western blot results showed that HA significantly inhibited the expression of HBx (3-fold with 50 μM and 5-fold with 100 μM) compared to control cells. When HA was incubated with HBx-transfected Hep G2 cells, HBx-induced autophagosome formation and beclin-1 levels were decreased. These data showed that HA induced apoptosis and inhibited HBV-induced autophagosome formation and proliferation in hepatoma cells. PMID:27708347

New insights for the hydrology of the Rhine based on the new generation climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Beersma, Jules; Buiteveld, Hendrik

2014-05-01

Decision makers base their choices of adaptation strategies on climate change projections and their associated hydrological consequences. New insights of climate change gained under the new generation of climate models belonging to the IPCC 5th assessment report may influence (the planning of) adaption measures and/or future expectations. In this study, hydrological impacts of climate change as projected under the new generation of climate models for the Rhine were assessed. Hereto we downscaled 31 General Circulation Models (GCMs), which were developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), using an advanced Delta Change Method for the Rhine basin. Changes in mean monthly, maximum and minimum flows at Lobith were derived with the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV of the Rhine. The projected changes were compared to changes that were previously obtained in the trans-boundary project Rheinblick using eight CMIP3 GCMs and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for emission scenario A1B. All eight selected CMIP3 models (scenario A1B) predicted for 2071-2100 a decrease in mean monthly flows between June and October. Similar decreases were found for some of the 31 CMIP5 models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. However, under each RCP, there were also models that projected an increase in mean flows between June and October and on average the decrease was smaller than for the eight CMIP3 models. For 2071-2100, also the mean annual minimum 7-days discharge decreased less in the CMIP5 model simulations than was projected in CMIP3. When assessing the response of mean monthly flows of the CMIP5 simulation with the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and HadGEM2-ES models with respect to initial conditions and RCPs, it was found that natural variability plays a dominant role in the near future (2021-2050), while changes in mean monthly flows are dominated by the radiative forcing in the far future (2071-2100). According to RCP 8.5 model

Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

2011-12-01

Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

Hydrologic Modeling of Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

1995-01-01

This study focused on the hydrologic response, including vegetation water use, of two test regions within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) region in the Canadian boreal forest, one north of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, and the other near Thompson, Manitoba. Fluxes of moisture and heat were studied using a spatially distributed hydrology soil-vegetation-model (DHSVM).

Clinical evaluation of the COBAS Amplicor HBV monitor test for measuring serum HBV DNA and comparison with the Quantiplex branched DNA signal amplification assay in Taiwan.

PubMed

Dai, C-Y; Yu, M-L; Chen, S-C; Lin, Z-Y; Hsieh, M-Y; Wang, L-Y; Tsai, J-F; Chuang, W-L; Chang, W-Y

2004-02-01

To evaluate the performance characteristics and clinical usefulness of the COBAS Amplicor HBV monitor (COBAS-AM) test in Taiwan and to examine its correlation with the Quantiplex branched DNA signal amplification (bDNA) assay for measuring serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA concentrations. HBV DNA was measured by the COBAS-AM test in 149 sera from chronic HBV infected patients that had previously been analysed by the bDNA assay. The COBAS-AM test showed good reproducibility, with acceptable intra-assay and interassay coefficients of variation (1.6% and 0.9%, respectively) and good linearity (r2=0.98). The overall sensitivity of the COBAS-AM test was significantly higher than that of the bDNA assay (95.3% v 83.2%): 69.6% of samples with HBV DNA below the detection limit of the bDNA assay could be measured by the COBAS-AM test. There was a significant correlation between the results of the two assays (r=0.901; p<0.0001). On average, the results derived from the COBAS-AM test were 0.55 log lower than those of the bDNA assay. HBV DNA concentrations were significantly higher among HBV e antigen (HBeAg) positive patients than negative ones, and higher among patients with abnormal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentrations than those with normal ALT concentrations (p=0.0003). The COBAS-AM assay, more sensitive in HBeAg negative samples than the bDNA assay, can effectively measure HBV DNA concentrations in Taiwanese patients. HBV DNA values measured by the COBAS-AM test and bDNA assay correlate significantly.

Genotyping of acute HBV isolates from England, 1997-2001.

PubMed

Sloan, Richard D; Strang, Angela L; Ramsay, Mary E; Teo, Chong-Gee

2009-02-01

Increasing data shows the relevance of HBV genotypes in the outcome of infection. Most studies investigating the relationship between the genotypic characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and the clinical or epidemiological aspects of HBV infection originate from studies of patients with chronic rather than acute hepatitis B. To study a convenience sample representing ca. 5% of reported acute hepatitis B in England between 1997 and 2001 to investigate the distribution of HBV genotypes and specific HBV variants with epidemiological risk factors, thereby providing baseline data for ongoing surveillance. From 160 serum samples, PCR was carried out to amplify the first 600 bases of the HBV S gene. Amplicons were sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis and risk factor analysis. Fifty-seven percent of the study samples carried HBV belonging to subtype A2, 13% to subtype D2, and the rest to genotype E (8%) and subtypes C2 and D3 (each 6%), D1 and D4 (each 3%) and B4 (1%). One particular A2 isolate was dominant, accounting for 23% of the total sample set. Drug use and homosexual transmission were equally implicated as risks within genotype A2. No mutations associated with vaccine escape or resistance to antiviral therapy were identified. Immigration and travel likely shape the observed genotype distribution and consequent prevalence of genotypes other than A2 or D in this population. Data suggests no genetic separation of parenteral and sexually transmitted virus. These data demonstrate the value in pursuing more extensive and recent surveillance.

Exploration of warm-up period in conceptual hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kue Bum; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Han, Dawei

2018-01-01

One of the important issues in hydrological modelling is to specify the initial conditions of the catchment since it has a major impact on the response of the model. Although this issue should be a high priority among modelers, it has remained unaddressed by the community. The typical suggested warm-up period for the hydrological models has ranged from one to several years, which may lead to an underuse of data. The model warm-up is an adjustment process for the model to reach an 'optimal' state, where internal stores (e.g., soil moisture) move from the estimated initial condition to an 'optimal' state. This study explores the warm-up period of two conceptual hydrological models, HYMOD and IHACRES, in a southwestern England catchment. A series of hydrologic simulations were performed for different initial soil moisture conditions and different rainfall amounts to evaluate the sensitivity of the warm-up period. Evaluation of the results indicates that both initial wetness and rainfall amount affect the time required for model warm up, although it depends on the structure of the hydrological model. Approximately one and a half months are required for the model to warm up in HYMOD for our study catchment and climatic conditions. In addition, it requires less time to warm up under wetter initial conditions (i.e., saturated initial conditions). On the other hand, approximately six months is required for warm-up in IHACRES, and the wet or dry initial conditions have little effect on the warm-up period. Instead, the initial values that are close to the optimal value result in less warm-up time. These findings have implications for hydrologic model development, specifically in determining soil moisture initial conditions and warm-up periods to make full use of the available data, which is very important for catchments with short hydrological records.

Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

Quantifying the effects of climate and post-fire landscape change on hydrologic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steimke, A.; Han, B.; Brandt, J.; Som Castellano, R.; Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Seasonally snow-dominated, forested mountain watersheds supply water to many human populations globally. However, the timing and magnitude of water delivery from these watersheds has already and will continue to change as the climate warms. Changes in vegetation also affect the runoff response of watersheds. The largest driver of vegetation change in many mountainous regions is wildfire, whose occurrence is affected by both climate and land management decisions. Here, we quantify how direct (i.e. changes in precipitation and temperature) and indirect (i.e. changing fire regimes) effects of climate change influence hydrologic parameters such as dates of peak streamflow, annual discharge, and snowpack levels. We used the Boise River Basin, ID as a model laboratory to calculate the relative magnitude of change stemming from direct and indirect effects of climate change. This basin is relevant to study as it is well-instrumented and major drainages have experienced burning at different spatial and temporal intervals, aiding in model calibration. We built a hydrology-based integrated model of the region using a multiagent simulation framework, Envision. We used a modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model and calibrated it to historic streamflow and snowpack observations. We combined a diverse set of climate projections with wildfire scenarios (low vs. high) representing two distinct intervals in the regional historic fire record. In fire simulations, we altered land cover coefficients to reflect a burned state post-fire, which decreased overall evapotranspiration rates and increased water yields. However, direct climate effects had a larger signal on annual variations of hydrologic parameters. By comparing and analyzing scenario outputs, we identified links and sensitivities between land cover and regional hydrology in the context of a changing climate, with potential implications for local land and water managers. In future

Application of global datasets for hydrological modelling of a remote, snowmelt driven catchment in the Canadian Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casson, David; Werner, Micha; Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Solomatine, Dimitri

2017-04-01

Hydrological modelling in the Canadian Sub-Arctic is hindered by the limited spatial and temporal coverage of local meteorological data. Local watershed modelling often relies on data from a sparse network of meteorological stations with a rough density of 3 active stations per 100,000 km2. Global datasets hold great promise for application due to more comprehensive spatial and extended temporal coverage. A key objective of this study is to demonstrate the application of global datasets and data assimilation techniques for hydrological modelling of a data sparse, Sub-Arctic watershed. Application of available datasets and modelling techniques is currently limited in practice due to a lack of local capacity and understanding of available tools. Due to the importance of snow processes in the region, this study also aims to evaluate the performance of global SWE products for snowpack modelling. The Snare Watershed is a 13,300 km2 snowmelt driven sub-basin of the Mackenzie River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The Snare watershed is data sparse in terms of meteorological data, but is well gauged with consistent discharge records since the late 1970s. End of winter snowpack surveys have been conducted every year from 1978-present. The application of global re-analysis datasets from the EU FP7 eartH2Observe project are investigated in this study. Precipitation data are taken from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) and temperature data from Watch Forcing Data applied to European Reanalysis (ERA)-Interim data (WFDEI). GlobSnow-2 is a global Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measurement product funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) and is also evaluated over the local watershed. Downscaled precipitation, temperature and potential evaporation datasets are used as forcing data in a distributed version of the HBV model implemented in the WFLOW framework. Results demonstrate the successful application of global datasets in local watershed modelling, but

HBV-Derived Synthetic Long Peptide Can Boost CD4+ and CD8+ T-Cell Responses in Chronic HBV Patients Ex Vivo

PubMed Central

Dou, Yingying; van Montfoort, Nadine; van den Bosch, Aniek; de Man, Robert A; Zom, Gijs G; Krebber, Willem-Jan; Melief, Cornelis J M; Buschow, Sonja I; Woltman, Andrea M

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Vaccination with synthetic long peptides (SLP) is a promising new treatment strategy for chronic hepatitis B virus (CHB). SLP can induce broad T-cell responses for all HLA types. Here we investigated the ability of a prototype HBV-core (HBc)-sequence-derived SLP to boost HBV-specific T cells in CHB patients ex vivo. Methods HBc-SLP was used to assess cross-presentation by monocyte-derived dendritic cells (moDC) and BDCA1+ blood myeloid DC (mDC) to engineered HBV-specific CD8+ T cells. Autologous SLP-loaded and toll-like receptor (TLR)-stimulated DC were used to activate patient HBc-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T cells. Results HBV-SLP was cross-presented by moDC, which was further enhanced by adjuvants. Patient-derived SLP-loaded moDC significantly increased autologous HBcAg18-27-specific CD8+ T cells and CD4+ T cells ex vivo. HBV-specific T cells were functional as they synthesized tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interferon-gamma. In 6/7 of patients blockade of PD-L1 further increased SLP effects. Also, importantly, patient-derived BDCA1+ mDC cross-presented and activated autologous T-cell responses ex vivo. Conclusions As a proof of concept, we showed a prototype HBc-SLP can boost T-cell responses in patients ex vivo. These results pave the way for the development of a therapeutic SLP-based vaccine to induce effective HBV-specific adaptive immune responses in CHB patients. PMID:29220492

Jump-Diffusion models and structural changes for asset forecasting in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tranquille Temgoua, André Guy; Martel, Richard; Chang, Philippe J. J.; Rivera, Alfonso

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on surface water and groundwater are of concern in many regions of the world since water is an essential natural resource. Jump-Diffusion models are generally used in economics and other related fields but not in hydrology. The potential application could be made for hydrologic data series analysis and forecast. The present study uses Jump-Diffusion models by adding structural changes to detect fluctuations in hydrologic processes in relationship with climate change. The model implicitly assumes that modifications in rivers' flowrates can be divided into three categories: (a) normal changes due to irregular precipitation events especially in tropical regions causing major disturbance in hydrologic processes (this component is modelled by a discrete Brownian motion); (b) abnormal, sudden and non-persistent modifications in hydrologic proceedings are handled by Poisson processes; (c) the persistence of hydrologic fluctuations characterized by structural changes in hydrological data related to climate variability. The objective of this paper is to add structural changes in diffusion models with jumps, in order to capture the persistence of hydrologic fluctuations. Indirectly, the idea is to observe if there are structural changes of discharge/recharge over the study area, and to find an efficient and flexible model able of capturing a wide variety of hydrologic processes. Structural changes in hydrological data are estimated using the method of nonlinear discrete filters via Method of Simulated Moments (MSM). An application is given using sensitive parameters such as baseflow index and recession coefficient to capture discharge/recharge. Historical dataset are examined by the Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to detect real time and random perturbations in hydrologic processes. The application of the method allows establishing more accurate hydrologic parameters. The impact of this study is perceptible in forecasting floods and groundwater

Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio

2010-05-01

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared.

Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silberstein, Richard P.

2014-05-01

As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

Disentangling the uncertainty of hydrologic drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Pechlivanidis, Illias; Breuer, Lutz; Wortmann, Michel; Vetter, Tobias; Flörke, Martina; Chamorro, Alejandro; Schäfer, David; Shah, Harsh; Zeng, Xiaofan

2016-04-01

The quantification of the predictive uncertainty in hydrologic models and their attribution to its main sources is of particular interest in climate change studies. In recent years, a number of studies have been aimed at assessing the ability of hydrologic models (HMs) to reproduce extreme hydrologic events. Disentangling the overall uncertainty of streamflow -including its derived low-flow characteristics- into individual contributions, stemming from forcings and model structure, has also been studied. Based on recent literature, it can be stated that there is a controversy with respect to which source is the largest (e.g., Teng, et al. 2012, Bosshard et al. 2013, Prudhomme et al. 2014). Very little has also been done to estimate the relative impact of the parametric uncertainty of the HMs with respect to overall uncertainty of low-flow characteristics. The ISI-MIP2 project provides a unique opportunity to understand the propagation of forcing and model structure uncertainties into century-long time series of drought characteristics. This project defines a consistent framework to deal with compatible initial conditions for the HMs and a set of standardized historical and future forcings. Moreover, the ensemble of hydrologic model predictions varies across a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. To achieve this goal, we use six preconditioned hydrologic models (HYPE or HBV, mHM, SWIM, VIC, and WaterGAP3) set up in seven large continental river basins: Amazon, Blue Nile, Ganges, Niger, Mississippi, Rhine, Yellow. These models are forced with bias-corrected outputs of five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCM) under four extreme representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2) for the period 1971-2099. Simulated streamflow is transformed into a monthly runoff index (RI) to analyze the attribution of the GCM and HM uncertainty into drought magnitude and duration over time. Uncertainty contributions are investigated

Remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dozier, J.; Estes, J. E.; Simonett, D. S.; Davis, R.; Frew, J.; Marks, D.; Schiffman, K.; Souza, M.; Witebsky, E.

1977-01-01

An energy balance snowmelt model for rugged terrain was devised and coupled to a flow model. A literature review of remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling was included along with a software development outline.

Improving student comprehension of the interconnectivity of the hydrologic cycle with a novel 'hydrology toolbox', integrated watershed model, and companion textbook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huning, L. S.; Margulis, S. A.

2013-12-01

Concepts in introductory hydrology courses are often taught in the context of process-based modeling that ultimately is integrated into a watershed model. In an effort to reduce the learning curve associated with applying hydrologic concepts to real-world applications, we developed and incorporated a 'hydrology toolbox' that complements a new, companion textbook into introductory undergraduate hydrology courses. The hydrology toolbox contains the basic building blocks (functions coded in MATLAB) for an integrated spatially-distributed watershed model that makes hydrologic topics (e.g. precipitation, snow, radiation, evaporation, unsaturated flow, infiltration, groundwater, and runoff) more user-friendly and accessible for students. The toolbox functions can be used in a modular format so that students can study individual hydrologic processes and become familiar with the hydrology toolbox. This approach allows such courses to emphasize understanding and application of hydrologic concepts rather than computer coding or programming. While topics in introductory hydrology courses are often introduced and taught independently or semi-independently, they are inherently interconnected. These toolbox functions are therefore linked together at the end of the course to reinforce a holistic understanding of how these hydrologic processes are measured, interconnected, and modeled. They are integrated into a spatially-distributed watershed model or numerical laboratory where students can explore a range of topics such as rainfall-runoff modeling, urbanization, deforestation, watershed response to changes in parameters or forcings, etc. Model output can readily be visualized and analyzed by students to understand watershed response in a real river basin or a simple 'toy' basin. These tools complement the textbook, each of which has been well received by students in multiple hydrology courses with various disciplinary backgrounds. The same governing equations that students have

Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2018-01-08

This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

Inactivated ORF virus shows antifibrotic activity and inhibits human hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) replication in preclinical models.

PubMed

Paulsen, Daniela; Urban, Andreas; Knorr, Andreas; Hirth-Dietrich, Claudia; Siegling, Angela; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Mercer, Andrew A; Limmer, Andreas; Schumak, Beatrix; Knolle, Percy; Ruebsamen-Schaeff, Helga; Weber, Olaf

2013-01-01

Inactivated orf virus (iORFV), strain D1701, is a potent immune modulator in various animal species. We recently demonstrated that iORFV induces strong antiviral activity in animal models of acute and chronic viral infections. In addition, we found D1701-mediated antifibrotic effects in different rat models of liver fibrosis. In the present study, we compare iORFV derived from two different strains of ORFV, D1701 and NZ2, respectively, with respect to their antifibrotic potential as well as their potential to induce an antiviral response controlling infections with the hepatotropic pathogens hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). Both strains of ORFV showed anti-viral activity against HCV in vitro and against HBV in a transgenic mouse model without signs of necro-inflammation in vivo. Our experiments suggest that the absence of liver damage is potentially mediated by iORFV-induced downregulation of antigen cross-presentation in liver sinus endothelial cells. Furthermore, both strains showed significant anti-fibrotic activity in rat models of liver fibrosis. iORFV strain NZ2 appeared more potent compared to strain D1701 with respect to both its antiviral and antifibrotic activity on the basis of dosages estimated by titration of active virus. These results show a potential therapeutic approach against two important human liver pathogens HBV and HCV that independently addresses concomitant liver fibrosis. Further studies are required to characterize the details of the mechanisms involved in this novel therapeutic principle.

Reactive oxygen species promote heat shock protein 90-mediated HBV capsid assembly

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Yoon Sik, E-mail: yumshak@naver.com; Seo, Hyun Wook, E-mail: suruk@naver.com; Jung, Guhung, E-mail: drjung@snu.ac.kr

2015-02-13

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection induces reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and has been associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). ROS are also an important factor in HCC because the accumulated ROS leads to abnormal cell proliferation and chromosome mutation. In oxidative stress, heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) and glutathione (GSH) function as part of the defense mechanism. Hsp90 prevents cellular component from oxidative stress, and GSH acts as antioxidants scavenging ROS in the cell. However, it is not known whether molecules regulated by oxidative stress are involved in HBV capsid assembly. Based on the previous study thatmore » Hsp90 facilitates HBV capsid assembly, which is an important step for the packing of viral particles, here, we show that ROS enrich Hsp90-driven HBV capsid formation. In cell-free system, HBV capsid assembly was facilitated by ROS with Hsp90, whereas it was decreased without Hsp90. In addition, GSH inhibited the function of Hsp90 to decrease HBV capsid assembly. Consistent with the result of cell-free system, ROS and buthionine sulfoximine (BS), an inhibitor of GSH synthesis, increased HBV capsid formation in HepG2.2.15 cells. Thus, our study uncovers the interplay between ROS and Hsp90 during HBV capsid assembly. - Highlights: • We examined H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and GSH modulate HBV capsid assembly. • H{sub 2}O{sub 2} facilitates HBV capsid assembly in the presence of Hsp90. • GSH inhibits function of Hsp90 in facilitating HBV capsid assembly. • H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and GSH induce conformation change of Hsp90.« less

Associated factors for recommending HBV vaccination to children among Georgian health care workers.

PubMed

Butsashvili, Maia; Kamkamidze, George; Topuridze, Marina; Morse, Dale; Triner, Wayne; DeHovitz, Jack; Nelson, Kenrad; McNutt, Louise-Anne

2012-12-20

Most cases of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and subsequent liver diseases can be prevented with universal newborn HBV vaccination. The attitudes of health care workers about HBV vaccination and their willingness to recommend vaccine have been shown to impact HBV vaccination coverage and the prevention of vertical transmission of HBV. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the factors associated with health care worker recommendations regarding newborn HBV vaccination. A cross-sectional study of prevalence and awareness of hepatitis B and hepatitis B vaccine was conducted among randomly selected physicians and nurses employed in seven hospitals in Georgia in 2006 and 2007. Self-administered questionnaires included a module on recommendations for HBV, HCV and HIV. Of the 1328 participants included in this analysis, 36% reported recommending against hepatitis B vaccination for children, including 33% of paediatricians. Among the 70.6% who provided a reason for not recommending HBV vaccine, the most common concern was an adverse vaccine event. Unvaccinated physicians and nurses were more likely to recommend against HBV vaccine (40.4% vs 11.4%, PR 3.54; 95% CI: 2.38, 5.29). Additionally, health care worker age was inversely correlated with recommendations for HBV vaccine with older workers less likely to recommend it. Vaccinating health care workers against HBV may provide a dual benefit by boosting occupational safety as well as strengthening universal coverage programs for newborns.

Testing the Structure of Hydrological Models using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selle, B.; Muttil, N.

2009-04-01

Genetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that genetic programming can be used to test the structure hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, genetic programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, water table depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using genetic programming, a simple model of deep percolation was consistently evolved in multiple model runs. This simple and interpretable model confirmed the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that genetic programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

A Longitudinal Hepatitis B Vaccine Cohort Demonstrates Long-lasting Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Cellular Immunity Despite Loss of Antibody Against HBV Surface Antigen

PubMed Central

Simons, Brenna C.; Spradling, Philip R.; Bruden, Dana J. T.; Zanis, Carolyn; Case, Samantha; Choromanski, Tammy L.; Apodaca, Minjun; Brogdon, Hazel D.; Dwyer, Gaelen; Snowball, Mary; Negus, Susan; Bruce, Michael G.; Morishima, Chihiro; Knall, Cindy; McMahon, Brian J.

2016-01-01

Background. Long-lasting protection resulting from hepatitis B vaccine, despite loss of antibody against hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (anti-HBs), is undetermined. Methods. We recruited persons from a cohort vaccinated with plasma-derived hepatitis B vaccine in 1981 who have been followed periodically since. We performed serological testing for anti-HBs and microRNA-155 and assessed HBV-specific T-cell responses by enzyme-linked immunospot and cytometric bead array. Study subgroups were defined 32 years after vaccination as having an anti-HBs level of either ≥10 mIU/mL (group 1; n = 13) or <10 mIU/mL (group 2; n = 31). Results. All 44 participants, regardless of anti-HBs level, tested positive for tumor necrosis factor α, interleukin 10, or interleukin 6 production by HBV surface antigen–specific T cells. The frequency of natural killer T cells correlated with the level of anti-HBs (P = .008). The proportion of participants who demonstrated T-cell responses to HBV core antigen varied among the cytokines measured, suggesting some natural exposure to HBV in the study group. No participant had evidence of breakthrough HBV infection. Conclusions. Evidence of long-lasting cellular immunity, regardless of anti-HBs level, suggests that protection afforded by primary immunization with plasma-derived hepatitis B vaccine during childhood and adulthood lasts at least 32 years. PMID:27056956

A comparison of hydrological deformation using GPS and global hydrological model for the Eurasian plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Yue, Jianping; Li, Wang; Lu, Dekai; Li, Xiaogen

2017-08-01

The 0.5° × 0.5° gridded hydrological loading from Global Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM) mass distributions is adopted for 32 GPS sites on the Eurasian plate from January 2010 to January 2014. When the heights of these sites that have been corrected for the effects of non-tidal atmospheric and ocean loading are adjusted by the hydrological loading deformation, more than one third of the root-mean-square (RMS) values of the GPS height variability become larger. After analyzing the results by continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC), we confirm that hydrological loading primarily contributes to the annual variations in GPS heights. Further, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) is used to investigate the relative phase between the time series of GPS heights and hydrological deformation, and it is indicated that the annual oscillations in the two time series are physically related for some sites; other geophysical effect, GPS systematic errors and hydrological modeling errors could result in the phase asynchrony between GPS and hydrological loading signals for the other sites. Consequently, the phase asynchrony confirms that the annual fluctuations in GPS observations result from a combination of geophysical signals and systematic errors.

Delineating wetland catchments and modeling hydrologic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In traditional watershed delineation and topographic modeling, surface depressions are generally treated as spurious features and simply removed from a digital elevation model (DEM) to enforce flow continuity of water across the topographic surface to the watershed outlets. In reality, however, many depressions in the DEM are actual wetland landscape features with seasonal to permanent inundation patterning characterized by nested hierarchical structures and dynamic filling–spilling–merging surface-water hydrological processes. Differentiating and appropriately processing such ecohydrologically meaningful features remains a major technical terrain-processing challenge, particularly as high-resolution spatial data are increasingly used to support modeling and geographic analysis needs. The objectives of this study were to delineate hierarchical wetland catchments and model their hydrologic connectivity using high-resolution lidar data and aerial imagery. The graph-theory-based contour tree method was used to delineate the hierarchical wetland catchments and characterize their geometric and topological properties. Potential hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and streams were simulated using the least-cost-path algorithm. The resulting flow network delineated potential flow paths connecting wetland depressions to each other or to the river network on scales finer than those available through the National Hydrography Dataset. The results demonstrated that

How to handle spatial heterogeneity in hydrological models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loritz, Ralf; Neuper, Malte; Gupta, Hoshin; Zehe, Erwin

2017-04-01

The amount of data we observe in our environmental systems is larger than ever. This leads to a new kind of problem where hydrological modelers can have access to large datasets with various quantitative and qualitative observations but are uncertain about the information content with respect to the hydrological functioning of a landscape. For example digital elevation models obviously contain plenty of information about the topography of a landscape; however the question of relevance for Hydrology is how much of this information is important for the hydrological functioning of a landscape. This kind of question is not limited to topography and we can ask similar questions when handling distributed rainfall data or geophysical images. In this study we would like to show how one can separate dominant patterns in the landscape from idiosyncratic system details. We use a 2D numerical hillslope model in combination with an extensive research data set to test a variety of different model setups that are built upon different landscape characteristics and run by different rainfalls measurements. With the help of information theory based measures we can identify and learn how much heterogeneity is really necessary for successful hydrological simulations and how much of it we can neglect.

An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

Treesearch

R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

2015-01-01

The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

Real-world hydrologic assessment of a fully-distributed hydrological model in a parallel computing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, Enrique R.; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Mniszewski, Susan; Fasel, Patricia; Springer, Everett P.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Bras, Rafael L.

2011-10-01

SummaryA major challenge in the use of fully-distributed hydrologic models has been the lack of computational capabilities for high-resolution, long-term simulations in large river basins. In this study, we present the parallel model implementation and real-world hydrologic assessment of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). Our parallelization approach is based on the decomposition of a complex watershed using the channel network as a directed graph. The resulting sub-basin partitioning divides effort among processors and handles hydrologic exchanges across boundaries. Through numerical experiments in a set of nested basins, we quantify parallel performance relative to serial runs for a range of processors, simulation complexities and lengths, and sub-basin partitioning methods, while accounting for inter-run variability on a parallel computing system. In contrast to serial simulations, the parallel model speed-up depends on the variability of hydrologic processes. Load balancing significantly improves parallel speed-up with proportionally faster runs as simulation complexity (domain resolution and channel network extent) increases. The best strategy for large river basins is to combine a balanced partitioning with an extended channel network, with potential savings through a lower TIN resolution. Based on these advances, a wider range of applications for fully-distributed hydrologic models are now possible. This is illustrated through a set of ensemble forecasts that account for precipitation uncertainty derived from a statistical downscaling model.

Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: Effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, O.; Weerts, A.; Hazenberg, P.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2012-12-01

This paper presents a study on the optimal setup for discharge assimilation within a spatially distributed hydrological model (Rakovec et al., 2012a). The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to update the grid-based distributed states of such an hourly spatially distributed version of the HBV-96 model. By using a physically based model for the routing, the time delay and attenuation are modelled more realistically. The discharge and states at a given time step are assumed to be dependent on the previous time step only (Markov property). Synthetic and real world experiments are carried out for the Upper Ourthe (1600 km2), a relatively quickly responding catchment in the Belgian Ardennes. The uncertain precipitation model forcings were obtained using a time-dependent multivariate spatial conditional simulation method (Rakovec et al., 2012b), which is further made conditional on preceding simulations. We assess the impact on the forecasted discharge of (1) various sets of the spatially distributed discharge gauges and (2) the filtering frequency. The results show that the hydrological forecast at the catchment outlet is improved by assimilating interior gauges. This augmentation of the observation vector improves the forecast more than increasing the updating frequency. In terms of the model states, the EnKF procedure is found to mainly change the pdfs of the two routing model storages, even when the uncertainty in the discharge simulations is smaller than the defined observation uncertainty. Rakovec, O., Weerts, A. H., Hazenberg, P., Torfs, P. J. J. F., and Uijlenhoet, R.: State updating of a distributed hydrological model with Ensemble Kalman Filtering: effects of updating frequency and observation network density on forecast accuracy, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, 3961-3999, doi:10.5194/hessd-9-3961-2012, 2012a. Rakovec, O., Hazenberg, P., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Weerts, A. H., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Generating spatial precipitation ensembles: impact of

From local hydrological process analysis to regional hydrological model application in Benin: Concept, results and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, H.; Faß, T.; Giertz, S.; Junge, B.; Diekkrüger, B.; Reichert, B.; Skowronek, A.

This paper presents the concept, first results and perspectives of the hydrological sub-project of the IMPETUS-Benin project which is part of the GLOWA program funded by the German ministry of education and research. In addition to the research concept, first results on field hydrology, pedology, hydrogeology and hydrological modelling are presented, focusing on the understanding of the actual hydrological processes. For analysing the processes a 30 km 2 catchment acting as a super test site was chosen which is assumed to be representative for the entire catchment of about 15,000 km 2. First results of the field investigations show that infiltration, runoff generation and soil erosion strongly depend on land cover and land use which again influence the soil properties significantly. A conceptual hydrogeological model has been developed summarising the process knowledge on runoff generation and subsurface hydrological processes. This concept model shows a dominance of fast runoff components (surface runoff and interflow), a groundwater recharge along preferential flow paths, temporary interaction between surface and groundwater and separate groundwater systems on different scales (shallow, temporary groundwater on local scale and permanent, deep groundwater on regional scale). The findings of intensive measurement campaigns on soil hydrology, groundwater dynamics and soil erosion have been integrated into different, scale-dependent hydrological modelling concepts applied at different scales in the target region (upper Ouémé catchment in Benin, about 15,000 km 2). The models have been applied and successfully validated. They will be used for integrated scenario analyses in the forthcoming project phase to assess the impacts of global change on the regional water cycle and on typical problem complexes such as food security in West African countries.

Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

2008-12-01

A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

Findings and Challenges in Fine-Resolution Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Her, Y. G.

2017-12-01

Fine-resolution large-scale (FL) modeling can provide the overall picture of the hydrological cycle and transport while taking into account unique local conditions in the simulation. It can also help develop water resources management plans consistent across spatial scales by describing the spatial consequences of decisions and hydrological events extensively. FL modeling is expected to be common in the near future as global-scale remotely sensed data are emerging, and computing resources have been advanced rapidly. There are several spatially distributed models available for hydrological analyses. Some of them rely on numerical methods such as finite difference/element methods (FDM/FEM), which require excessive computing resources (implicit scheme) to manipulate large matrices or small simulation time intervals (explicit scheme) to maintain the stability of the solution, to describe two-dimensional overland processes. Others make unrealistic assumptions such as constant overland flow velocity to reduce the computational loads of the simulation. Thus, simulation efficiency often comes at the expense of precision and reliability in FL modeling. Here, we introduce a new FL continuous hydrological model and its application to four watersheds in different landscapes and sizes from 3.5 km2 to 2,800 km2 at the spatial resolution of 30 m on an hourly basis. The model provided acceptable accuracy statistics in reproducing hydrological observations made in the watersheds. The modeling outputs including the maps of simulated travel time, runoff depth, soil water content, and groundwater recharge, were animated, visualizing the dynamics of hydrological processes occurring in the watersheds during and between storm events. Findings and challenges were discussed in the context of modeling efficiency, accuracy, and reproducibility, which we found can be improved by employing advanced computing techniques and hydrological understandings, by using remotely sensed hydrological

Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Load Response to 2 Antiviral Regimens, Tenofovir/Lamivudine and Lamivudine, in HIV/ HBV-Coinfected Pregnant Women in Guangxi, China: The Tenofovir in Pregnancy (TiP) Study.

PubMed

Wang, Liming; Wiener, Jeffrey; Bulterys, Marc; Wei, Xiaoyu; Chen, Lili; Liu, Wei; Liang, Shujia; Shepard, Colin; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Ailing; Zhang, Fujie; Kourtis, Athena P

2016-12-01

 There is limited information on antiviral therapy for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection among pregnant women coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and HBV.  A phase 2 randomized, controlled trial of a regimen containing tenofovir (TDF)/lamivudine (3TC) and a regimen containing 3TC in HIV/HBV-coinfected pregnant women in China. The HBV virological response was compared in study arms.  The median decline in the HBV DNA level was 2.60 log 10 copies/mL in the TDF/3TC arm and 2.24 log 10 copies/mL in the 3TC arm (P = .41). All women achieved HBV DNA levels of <6 log 10 copies/mL at delivery.  Initiation of either regimen led to achievement of HBV DNA levels below the threshold associated with perinatal HBV transmission.  NCT01125696. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten

2016-04-01

The evaluation of model performance is a central part of (hydrological) modelling. Much attention has been given to the development of evaluation criteria and diagnostic frameworks. (Klemeš, 1986; Gupta et al., 2008; among many others). Nevertheless, many applications exist for which objective functions do not yet provide satisfying summaries. Thus, the necessity to visualize results arises in order to explore a wider range of model capacities, be it strengths or deficiencies. Visualizations are usually devised for specific projects and these efforts are often not distributed to a broader community (e.g. via open source software packages). Hence, the opportunity to explicitly discuss a state-of-the-art presentation technique is often missed. We therefore present a comprehensive R-package for evaluating model performance by visualizing and exploring different aspects of hydrological time-series. The presented package comprises a set of useful plots and visualization methods, which complement existing packages, such as hydroGOF (Zambrano-Bigiarini et al., 2012). It is derived from practical applications of the hydrological models COSERO and COSEROreg (Kling et al., 2014). visCOS, providing an interface in R, represents an easy-to-use software package for visualizing and assessing model performance and can be implemented in the process of model calibration or model development. The package provides functions to load hydrological data into R, clean the data, process, visualize, explore and finally save the results in a consistent way. Together with an interactive zoom function of the time series, an online calculation of the objective functions for variable time-windows is included. Common hydrological objective functions, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency, can also be evaluated and visualized in different ways for defined sub-periods like hydrological years or seasonal sections. Many hydrologists use long-term water-balances as a

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

A Longitudinal Hepatitis B Vaccine Cohort Demonstrates Long-lasting Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Cellular Immunity Despite Loss of Antibody Against HBV Surface Antigen.

PubMed

Simons, Brenna C; Spradling, Philip R; Bruden, Dana J T; Zanis, Carolyn; Case, Samantha; Choromanski, Tammy L; Apodaca, Minjun; Brogdon, Hazel D; Dwyer, Gaelen; Snowball, Mary; Negus, Susan; Bruce, Michael G; Morishima, Chihiro; Knall, Cindy; McMahon, Brian J

2016-07-15

Long-lasting protection resulting from hepatitis B vaccine, despite loss of antibody against hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (anti-HBs), is undetermined. We recruited persons from a cohort vaccinated with plasma-derived hepatitis B vaccine in 1981 who have been followed periodically since. We performed serological testing for anti-HBs and microRNA-155 and assessed HBV-specific T-cell responses by enzyme-linked immunospot and cytometric bead array. Study subgroups were defined 32 years after vaccination as having an anti-HBs level of either ≥10 mIU/mL (group 1; n = 13) or <10 mIU/mL (group 2; n = 31). All 44 participants, regardless of anti-HBs level, tested positive for tumor necrosis factor α, interleukin 10, or interleukin 6 production by HBV surface antigen-specific T cells. The frequency of natural killer T cells correlated with the level of anti-HBs (P = .008). The proportion of participants who demonstrated T-cell responses to HBV core antigen varied among the cytokines measured, suggesting some natural exposure to HBV in the study group. No participant had evidence of breakthrough HBV infection. Evidence of long-lasting cellular immunity, regardless of anti-HBs level, suggests that protection afforded by primary immunization with plasma-derived hepatitis B vaccine during childhood and adulthood lasts at least 32 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Land Surface and Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, M.; Thober, S.; Mai, J.; Samaniego, L. E.; Gochis, D. J.; Kumar, R.

2015-12-01

Routing streamflow through a river network is a basic step within any distributed hydrologic model. It integrates the generated runoff and allows comparison with observed discharge at the outlet of a catchment. The Muskingum routing is a textbook river routing scheme that has been implemented in Earth System Models (e.g., WRF-HYDRO), stand-alone routing schemes (e.g., RAPID), and hydrologic models (e.g., the mesoscale Hydrologic Model). Most implementations suffer from a high computational demand because the spatial routing resolution is fixed to that of the elevation model irrespective of the hydrologic modeling resolution. This is because the model parameters are scale-dependent and cannot be used at other resolutions without re-estimation. Here, we present the multiscale Routing Model (mRM) that allows for a flexible choice of the routing resolution. mRM exploits the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) included in the open-source mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) that relates model parameters to physiographic properties and allows to estimate scale-independent model parameters. mRM is currently coupled to mHM and is presented here as stand-alone Free and Open Source Software (FOSS). The mRM source code is highly modular and provides a subroutine for internal re-use in any land surface scheme. mRM is coupled in this work to the state-of-the-art land surface model Noah-MP. Simulation results using mRM are compared with those available in WRF-HYDRO for the Red River during the period 1990-2000. mRM allows to increase the routing resolution from 100m to more than 10km without deteriorating the model performance. Therefore, it speeds up model calculation by reducing the contribution of routing to total runtime from over 80% to less than 5% in the case of WRF-HYDRO. mRM thus makes discharge data available to land surface modeling with only little extra calculations.

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Novel pre-mRNA splicing of intronically integrated HBV generates oncogenic chimera in hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Chiu, Yung-Tuen; Wong, John K L; Choi, Shing-Wan; Sze, Karen M F; Ho, Daniel W H; Chan, Lo-Kong; Lee, Joyce M F; Man, Kwan; Cherny, Stacey; Yang, Wan-Ling; Wong, Chun-Ming; Sham, Pak-Chung; Ng, Irene O L

2016-06-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) integration is common in HBV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and may play an important pathogenic role through the production of chimeric HBV-human transcripts. We aimed to screen the transcriptome for HBV integrations in HCCs. Transcriptome sequencing was performed on paired HBV-associated HCCs and corresponding non-tumorous liver tissues to identify viral-human chimeric sites. Validation was further performed in an expanded cohort of human HCCs. Here we report the discovery of a novel pre-mRNA splicing mechanism in generating HBV-human chimeric protein. This mechanism was exemplified by the formation of a recurrent HBV-cyclin A2 (CCNA2) chimeric transcript (A2S), as detected in 12.5% (6 of 48) of HCC patients, but in none of the 22 non-HCC HBV-associated cirrhotic liver samples examined. Upon the integration of HBV into the intron of the CCNA2 gene, the mammalian splicing machinery utilized the foreign splice sites at 282nt. and 458nt. of the HBV genome to generate a pseudo-exon, forming an in-frame chimeric fusion with CCNA2. The A2S chimeric protein gained a non-degradable property and promoted cell cycle progression, demonstrating its potential oncogenic functions. A pre-mRNA splicing mechanism is involved in the formation of HBV-human chimeric proteins. This represents a novel and possibly common mechanism underlying the formation of HBV-human chimeric transcripts from intronically integrated HBV genome with functional impact. HBV is involved in the mammalian pre-mRNA splicing machinery in the generation of potential tumorigenic HBV-human chimeras. This study also provided insight on the impact of intronic HBV integration with the gain of splice sites in the development of HBV-associated HCC. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration for distributed hydrologic runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spies, R. R.; Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.

2012-12-01

Distributed models have the ability of incorporating spatially variable data, especially high resolution forcing inputs such as precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in hydrologic modeling. Use of distributed hydrologic models for operational streamflow prediction has been partially hindered by a lack of readily available, spatially explicit input observations. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), for example, is currently accounted for through PET input grids that are based on monthly climatological values. The goal of this study is to assess the use of satellite-based PET estimates that represent the temporal and spatial variability, as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). Daily PET grids are generated for six watersheds in the upper Mississippi River basin using a method that applies only MODIS satellite-based observations and the Priestly Taylor formula (MODIS-PET). The use of MODIS-PET grids will be tested against the use of the current climatological PET grids for simulating basin discharge. Gridded surface temperature forcing data are derived by applying the inverse distance weighting spatial prediction method to point-based station observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). Precipitation data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). A-priori gridded parameters for the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Snow-17 model, and routing model are initially obtained from the Office of Hydrologic Development and further calibrated using an automated approach. The potential of the MODIS-PET to be used in an operational distributed modeling system will be assessed with the long-term goal of promoting research to operations transfers and advancing the science of hydrologic forecasting.

Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

2017-12-01

Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

Antiviral prophylaxis during chemotherapy or immunosuppressive drug therapy to prevent HBV reactivation in patients with resolved HBV infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Su, Yi-Chia; Lin, Pei-Chin; Yu, Hsien-Chung; Wu, Chih-Chien

2018-05-29

Until recently, the role of antiviral prophylaxis in preventing hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation during immunosuppressive therapy or chemotherapy in patients with resolved HBV infection was unclear. The aim of the study reported here was to compare the efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis versus that of non-prophylaxis in resolved HBV-infected patients undergoing chemotherapy or immunosuppressive therapy. PubMed, the Cochrane library, and the ClinicalTrials.gov website were searched from inception until December 2017. Studies comparing reactivation in prophylaxis versus non-prophylaxis in patients undergoing immunosuppressive therapy or chemotherapy were included. The meta-analysis was performed to calculate the relative risk (RR) and the pooled estimates. A meta-analysis was conducted of 13 studies (2 randomized controlled trials [RCTs] and 11 cohort studies). The summary RR for HBV reactivation was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13-1.69) for antiviral prophylaxis versus non-prophylaxis. Both of the RCTs included in the meta-analysis enrolled patients treated with rituximab. Subgroup analyses showed that the two RCTs ± high-quality cohort studies showed a decreased risk of HBV reactivation among the antiviral prophylaxis groups (RCT 1: RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02-0.70; P = 0.02; RCT 2: 0.28, 95% CI 0.08-0.98; P = 0.05). Subgroup analyses further showed that the cohort studies did not support an association between the antiviral prophylaxis groups and HBV reactivation (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.14-2.83; P = 0.54); adjusting for confounding factors, such as detectable anti-HBs antibodies, failed to produce a significant association (RR,0.29, 95% CI 0.07-1.28; P = 0.10). Our meta-analyses did not show an association between antiviral prophylaxis use and risk of HBV reactivation. As using only the RCTs ± high-quality cohort studies data rendered this association significant, clinicians can consider providing antiviral prophylaxis to patients with resolved

Comparison of the effects of formaldehyde and gaseous ozone on HBV-contaminated hospital quilts

PubMed Central

Guo, Dan; Li, Ziqiong; Jia, Bei; Che, Xiaoqiong; Song, Tianshuang; Huang, Wenxiang

2015-01-01

Background: Besides being highly infectious, Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide. In hospital settings, it is easy for the environment and quilts to be contaminated by HBV patient blood and body fluids. Therefore, HBV can be transmitted to other patients via contaminated environmental surfaces or quilts, resulting in an HBV nosocomial infection. Formaldehyde and ozone are commonly used disinfectants that may influence this infectious situation. Objective: To investigate the clinical effectiveness of formaldehyde and gaseous ozone for the terminal cleaning of hospital quilts contaminated by HBV. Methods: Thin cloth and thick cotton soaked with the serum from high HBV copy number patients were prepared and disinfected using formaldehyde fumigation and gaseous ozone at different times. The copy numbers of HBV DNA in the HBV-contaminated cloth and cotton samples were measured quantitatively with fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results: When gaseous ozone was used to disinfect HBV-contaminated quilts for 23 minutes (min), 36 min, 49 min, and 90 min, the HBV DNA copy number displayed no significant decrease compared with the copy number before disinfection (P > 0.05). In comparison, the copy number of the HBV DNA in the cloth group decreased significantly (P < 0.05) after formaldehyde fumigation disinfection for 1 hour (h), and there was no difference when longer times and increased concentrations were used. In the thick cotton group, there was also a significant decrease (P < 0.05) of the HBV DNA copy numbers, but the decrease was not as dramatic. In addition, in this group, the disinfection effect observed at 4 h was the strongest. Conclusions: The application of ozone to disinfect HBV-contaminated hospital quilts possibly has no effect, whereas, formaldehyde oxide fumigation effectively reduced HBV copy numbers. PMID:26770591

Trained immunity in newborn infants of HBV-infected mothers

PubMed Central

Hong, Michelle; Sandalova, Elena; Low, Diana; Gehring, Adam J.; Fieni, Stefania; Amadei, Barbara; Urbani, Simonetta; Chong, Yap-Seng; Guccione, Ernesto; Bertoletti, Antonio

2015-01-01

The newborn immune system is characterized by an impaired Th1-associated immune response. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmitted from infected mothers to newborns is thought to exploit the newborns’ immune system immaturity by inducing a state of immune tolerance that facilitates HBV persistence. Contrary to this hypothesis, we demonstrate here that HBV exposure in utero triggers a state of trained immunity, characterized by innate immune cell maturation and Th1 development, which in turn enhances the ability of cord blood immune cells to respond to bacterial infection in vitro. These training effects are associated with an alteration of the cytokine environment characterized by low IL-10 and, in most cases, high IL-12p40 and IFN-α2. Our data uncover a potentially symbiotic relationship between HBV and its natural host, and highlight the plasticity of the fetal immune system following viral exposure in utero. PMID:25807344

Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

2013-12-01

Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common

Genotype-dependent activation or repression of HBV enhancer II by transcription factor COUP-TF1

PubMed Central

Fischer, Silke F; Schmidt, Katja; Fiedler, Nicola; Glebe, Dieter; Schüttler, Christian; Sun, Jianguang; Gerlich, Wolfram H; Repp, Reinald; Schaefer, Stephan

2006-01-01

AIM: To study the expression of HBV enhancer II by transcription factor COUP-TF1. METHODS: In order to study the regulation of HBV variants in the vicinity of the NRRE we cloned luciferase constructs containing the HBV enhancer II from variants and from HBV genotypes A and D and cotransfected them together with expression vectors for COUP-TF1 into HepG2 cells. RESULTS: Our findings show that enhancer II of HBV genotype A is also repressed by COUP-TF1. In contrast, two different enhancer II constructs of HBV genotype D were activated by COUP-TF1. The activation was independent of the NRRE because a natural variant with a deletion of nt 1763-1770 was still activated by COUP-TF1. CONCLUSION: Regulation of transcription of the HBV genome seems to differ among HBV genomes derived from different genotypes. These differences in transcriptional control among HBV genotypes may be the molecular basis for differences in the clinical course among HBV genotypes. PMID:17009409

Genotype-dependent activation or repression of HBV enhancer II by transcription factor COUP-TF1.

PubMed

Fischer, Silke F; Schmidt, Katja; Fiedler, Nicola; Glebe, Dieter; Schüttler, Christian; Sun, Jianguang; Gerlich, Wolfram H; Repp, Reinald; Schaefer, Stephan

2006-10-07

To study the expression of HBV enhancer II by transcription factor COUP-TF1. In order to study the regulation of HBV variants in the vicinity of the NRRE we cloned luciferase constructs containing the HBV enhancer II from variants and from HBV genotypes A and D and cotransfected them together with expression vectors for COUP-TF1 into HepG2 cells. Our findings show that enhancer II of HBV genotype A is also repressed by COUP-TF1. In contrast, two different enhancer II constructs of HBV genotype D were activated by COUP-TF1. The activation was independent of the NRRE because a natural variant with a deletion of nt 1763-1770 was still activated by COUP-TF1. Regulation of transcription of the HBV genome seems to differ among HBV genomes derived from different genotypes. These differences in transcriptional control among HBV genotypes may be the molecular basis for differences in the clinical course among HBV genotypes.

Brokering as a framework for hydrological model repeatability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuka, Daniel; Collick, Amy; MacAlister, Charlotte; Braeckel, Aaron; Wright, Dawn; Jodha Khalsa, Siri; Boldrini, Enrico; Easton, Zachary

2015-04-01

Data brokering aims to provide those in the the sciences with quick and repeatable access to data that represents physical, biological, and chemical characteristics; specifically to accelerate scientific discovery. Environmental models are useful tools to understand the behavior of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, parameterization of these hydrological models requires many different data, from different sources, and from different disciplines (e.g., atmospheric, geoscience, ecology). In basin scale hydrological modeling, the traditional procedure for model initialization starts with obtaining elevation models, land-use characterizations, soils maps, and weather data. It is often the researcher's past experience with these datasets that determines which datasets will be used in a study, and often newer, or more suitable data products will exist. An added complexity is that various science communities have differing data formats, storage protocols, and manipulation methods, which makes use by a non native user exceedingly difficult and time consuming. We demonstrate data brokering as a means to address several of these challenges. We present two test case scenarios in which researchers attempt to reproduce hydrological model results using 1) general internet based data gathering techniques, and 2) a scientific data brokering interface. We show that data brokering can increase the efficiency with which data are obtained, models are initialized, and results are analyzed. As an added benefit, it appears brokering can significantly increase the repeatability of a given study.

Soluble ST2 Plasma Concentrations Predict Mortality in HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

PubMed Central

Mo, Zhishuo; Zhu, Jianyun; Pang, Xiuqing; Wu, Zhebin; Wang, Ke; Li, Xinhua; Xie, Dongying; Gao, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a rapidly progressing and frequently fatal condition. The aim of this study was to determine whether interleukin- (IL-) 33 and soluble ST2 (sST2) were associated with disease severity and mortality in HBV-ACLF. We found that plasma levels of sST2 but not IL-33 were higher in HBV-ACLF patients compared with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and healthy controls. However, plasma levels of IL-33, TNF-α, IFN-γ, and IL-10 did not correlate with sST2 levels. Similarly, immunohistochemistry revealed low IL-33 expression and high ST2 expression in liver sections of patients with HBV-ACLF. Evaluation of dynamic changes of sST2 in HBV-ACLF showed that plasma sST2 levels increased over time in patients who died during the 180-day follow-up but decreased in those who survived. In addition, plasma sST2 level after week 1 correlated with disease severity, as assessed by total bilirubin, prothrombin time, and model for end-stage liver disease score. Results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that higher sST2 concentration (≥87 ng/mL) at week 3 was associated with poor survival. These findings indicate the potential usefulness of sST2 as a predictor of disease severity and in making treatment decisions for patients with HBV-ACLF. PMID:25892854

Genetic polymorphism of interleukin-6 influences susceptibility to HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma in a male Chinese Han population.

PubMed

Tang, Shengli; Yuan, Yufeng; He, Yueming; Pan, Dingyu; Zhang, Yongxi; Liu, Yuanyuan; Liu, Quanyan; Zhang, Zhonglin; Liu, Zhisu

2014-04-01

As a multifunctional cytokine, interleukin-6 (IL-6) plays a key role in chronic inflammation as well as tumor growth and progression of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Recent studies have implicated that single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) -572C>G (rs1800796) located within the promoter region of IL-6 gene was associated with susceptibility to several diseases. Here, a case-control study was undertaken to investigate the association between this polymorphism and HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) susceptibility in a Chinese Han population. A total of 900 patients with chronic HBV infection, including 505 HBV-related HCC patients and 395 HBV infected patients without HCC were enrolled, and rs1800796 polymorphism was genotyped by the TaqMan method and DNA sequencing technology. The results indicated no significant association between rs1800796 polymorphism and the risk of HBV-related HCC in all subjects; however, a significant difference was identified in male subjects. Under the dominant model, male subjects with the G allele (CG/GG) have higher susceptibility to HBV-related HCC than those with CC genotype after adjusting confounding factors (P=0.012, odds ratio [OR] 1.68, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.15-2.42). Our results suggested that rs1800796 polymorphism of IL-6 gene was associated with susceptibility to HBV-related HCC in a male Chinese Han population. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Non-invasive optical detection of HBV based on serum surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zuci; Wang, Qiwen; Weng, Cuncheng; Lin, Xueliang; Lin, Yao; Feng, Shangyuan

2016-10-01

An optical method of surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) was developed for non-invasive detection of hepatitis B surface virus (HBV). Hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) is an established serological marker that is routinely used for the diagnosis of acute or chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection. Utilizing SERS to analyze blood serum for detecting HBV has not been reported in previous literature. SERS measurements were performed on two groups of serum samples: one group for 50 HBV patients and the other group for 50 healthy volunteers. Blood serum samples are collected from healthy control subjects and patients diagnosed with HBV. Furthermore, principal components analysis (PCA) combined with linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were employed to differentiate HBV patients from healthy volunteer and achieved sensitivity of 80.0% and specificity of 74.0%. This exploratory work demonstrates that SERS serum analysis combined with PCA-LDA has tremendous potential for the non-invasive detection of HBV.

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also

Differences in antiproliferative effect of STAT3 inhibition in HCC cells with versus without HBV expression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, Yun; Zhou, Lin; Xie, Haiyang

2015-06-05

Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) plays an important role in the etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) inactivation could inhibit the tumor growth of HCC. In this study, differential antiproliferative effect of STAT3 inhibition was observed with HBV-related HCC cells being more resistant than non-HBV-related HCC cells. Resistance of HBV-related HCC cells to STAT3 inhibition was positively correlated to the expression of HBV. Enhanced ERK activation after STAT3 blockade was detected in HBV-related HCC cells but not in non-HBV-related HCC cells. Combined ERK and STAT3 inhibition eliminates the discrepancy between themore » two types of HCC cells. Moderate reduced HBV expression was found after STAT3 inhibition. These findings disclose a discrepancy in cellular response to STAT3 inhibition between non-HBV-related and HBV-related HCC cells and underscore the complexity of antiproliferative effect of STAT3 inactivation in HBV-related HCC cells. - Highlights: • HBV endows HCC cells with resistance to STAT3 inactivation on proliferation. • Abnormal ERK activation after STAT3 inhibition in HBV-related HCC cells. • Combined ERK and STAT3 inhibition eliminates the discrepancy. • STAT3 inhibition moderately reduces HBV expression.« less

Increased ERp57 Expression in HBV-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Possible Correlation and Prognosis.

PubMed

Liu, Miao; Du, Lingyao; He, Zhiliang; Yan, Libo; Shi, Ying; Shang, Jin; Tang, Hong

2017-01-01

Aim. ERp57 is involved in virus induced endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) and plays an important role in tumorigenesis. This study aimed to find whether HBV infection altered ERp57 expression and whether ERp57 regulation was involved in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-HCC) genesis. Materials and Methods. HBV-HCC tissues, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) liver tissues, and normal liver tissues were acquired. ERp57 expressions in these tissues were detected through immunohistochemistry (IHC). And ERp57 expression in liver cell line L02, HBV replicative liver cell line L02-pHBV4.1, and HCC cell lines were detected through western blot for verification. Then medical data on patients providing HCC tissues were collected and analyzed along with ERp57 expression. Results. Higher ERp57 expression was found in HCC and CHB tissues ( p < 0.001). And HCC cell lines and L02-pHBV4.1 presented higher ERp57 expression as well. In patients, ERp57 expression showed significant differences between death and survival groups ( p = 0.037). And cumulative survival in patients with higher ERp57 (score ⩾ 8.75) is significantly lower ( p = 0.009). Conclusion. Our study found increased expression of ERp57 in HBV-HCC. Such altered expression could be related to HBV infection and high ERp57 expression may lead to poor prognosis of HBV-HCC patients.

Hydrological changes in the Amur river basin: two approaches for assignment of climate projections into hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Kalugin, Andrei; Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

A regional hydrological model was setup to assess possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Amur drainage basin (the catchment area is 1 855 000 km2). The model is based on the ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform and describes spatially distributed processes of water cycle in this great basin with account for flow regulation by the Russian and Chinese reservoirs. Earlier, the regional hydrological model was intensively evaluated against 20-year streamflow data over the whole Amur basin and, being driven by 252-station meteorological observations as input data, demonstrated good performance. In this study, we firstly assessed the reliability of the model to reproduce the historical streamflow series when Global Climate Model (GCM) simulation data are used as input into the hydrological model. Data of nine GCMs involved in CMIP5 project was utilized and we found that ensemble mean of annual flow is close to the observed flow (error is about 14%) while data of separate GCMs may result in much larger errors. Reproduction of seasonal flow for the historical period turned out weaker; first of all because of large errors in simulated seasonal precipitation, so hydrological consequences of climate change were estimated just in terms of annual flow. We analyzed the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in four 20-year periods: early- (2020-2039), mid- (2040-2059) and two end-century (2060-2079; 2080-2099) periods using an ensemble of nine GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Mean annual runoff anomalies calculated as percentages of the future runoff (simulated under 36 GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios) to the historical runoff (simulated under the corresponding GCM outputs for the reference 1986-2005 period) were estimated. Hydrological model gave small negative runoff anomalies for almost all GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios and for all 20-year

Interaction of TLR-IFN and HLA polymorphisms on susceptibility of chronic HBV infection in Southwest Han Chinese.

PubMed

He, Dengming; Tao, Shiqi; Guo, Shimin; Li, Maoshi; Wu, Junqiu; Huang, Hongfei; Guo, Xinwu; Yan, Guohua; Zhu, Peng; Wang, Yuming

2015-08-01

The toll-like receptor-interferon (TLR-IFN) signalling pathway plays a crucial role in HBV infection. Human leucocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms are associated with chronic HBV infection by genome wide association study (GWAS). We aimed to explore interaction between TLR-IFN and HLA gene polymorphisms in susceptibility of chronic HBV infection. In the Chinese Southwest Han population, 1191 chronic HBV infection patients and 273 HBV clearance were selected. A total of 39 single nucleotide polymorphism loci in 23 genes of the TLR-IFN pathway and four HLA polymorphism loci associated with chronic HBV infection identified by GWAS were selected for genotyping. SNPStats, QVALUE, and multifactor dimensionality reduction were used for statistical analysis. A significant association was seen in several of the TLR-IFN pathway genes, TLR9 rs352140 (OR = 0.70, P = 0.0088), IL1B rs16944 (OR = 0.67, P = 0.016), IL12B rs3212227 (OR = 1.38, P = 0.021), IFNGR1 rs3799488 (OR = 1.48, P = 0.0048), IFNGR2 rs1059293 (OR = 0.27, P = 0.011), MX1 rs467960 (OR = 0.68, P = 0.022), as well as four loci in HLA, rs3077 (OR = 0.55, P < 0.0001), rs2856718 (OR = 0.60, P = 4e-04), rs9277535 (OR = 0.54, P < 0.0001) and rs7453920 (OR = 0.43, P < 0.0001). A synergistic relationship was seen between rs9277535 and rs16944 (0.13%), rs1143623 and rs6613 (0.10%). The combination of rs9277535 in HLA and rs16944 in IL1B was the best model to predict chronic HBV infection (testing accuracy = 0.6040, P = 0.0010, cross-validation consistency = 10/10). TLR-IFN pathway gene polymorphisms are associated with chronic HBV infection. Interactions with polymorphisms in these genes may be one mechanism by which HLA polymorphisms influence susceptibility to chronic HBV infection, as specific single nucleotide polymorphism combinations are highly predictive of chronic HBV infection. © 2014 The Authors. Liver International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A physically-based Distributed Hydrologic Model for Tropical Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abebe, N. A.; Ogden, F. L.

2010-12-01

Hydrological models are mathematical formulations intended to represent observed hydrological processes in a watershed. Simulated watersheds in turn vary in their nature based on their geographic location, altitude, climatic variables and geology and soil formation. Due to these variations, available hydrologic models vary in process formulation, spatial and temporal resolution and data demand. Many tropical watersheds are characterized by extensive and persistent biological activity and a large amount of rain. The Agua Salud catchments located within the Panama Canal Watershed, Panama, are such catchments identified by steep rolling topography, deep soils derived from weathered bedrock, and limited exposed bedrock. Tropical soils are highly affected by soil cracks, decayed tree roots and earthworm burrows forming a network of preferential flow paths that drain to a perched water table, which forms at a depth where the vertical hydraulic conductivity is significantly reduced near the bottom of the bioturbation layer. We have developed a physics-based, spatially distributed, multi-layered hydrologic model to simulate the dominant processes in these tropical watersheds. The model incorporates the major flow processes including overland flow, channel flow, matrix and non-Richards film flow infiltration, lateral downslope saturated matrix and non-Darcian pipe flow in the bioturbation layer, and deep saturated groundwater flow. Emphasis is given to the modeling of subsurface unsaturated zone soil moisture dynamics and the saturated preferential lateral flow from the network of macrospores. Preliminary results indicate that the model has the capability to simulate the complex hydrological processes in the catchment and will be a useful tool in the ongoing comprehensive ecohydrological studies in tropical catchments, and help improve our understanding of the hydrological effects of deforestation and aforestation.

A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation

PubMed Central

Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B.; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications. PMID:28545077

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation.

PubMed

Andreadis, Konstantinos M; Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

2017-01-01

The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

RHydro - Hydrological models and tools to represent and analyze hydrological data in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusser, Dominik; Buytaert, Wouter

2010-05-01

In hydrology, basic equations and procedures keep being implemented from scratch by scientist, with the potential for errors and inefficiency. The use of libraries can overcome these problems. Other scientific disciplines such as mathematics and physics have benefited significantly from such an approach with freely available implementations for many routines. As an example, hydrological libraries could contain: Major representations of hydrological processes such as infiltration, sub-surface runoff and routing algorithms. Scaling functions, for instance to combine remote sensing precipitation fields with rain gauge data Data consistency checks Performance measures. Here we present a beginning for such a library implemented in the high level data programming language R. Currently, Top-model, data import routines for WaSiM-ETH as well basic visualization and evaluation tools are implemented. The design is such, that a definition of import scripts for additional models is sufficient to have access to the full set of evaluation and visualization tools.

Core protein: a pleiotropic keystone in the HBV lifecycle

PubMed Central

Zlotnick, Adam; Venkatakrishnan, Balasubramanian; Tan, Zhenning; Lewellyn, Eric; Turner, William; Francis, Samson

2015-01-01

Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is a small virus whose genome has only four open reading frames. We argue that the simplicity of the virion correlates with a complexity of functions for viral proteins. We focus on the HBV core protein (Cp), a small (183 residue) protein that self-assembles to form the viral capsid. However, its functions are a little more complicated than that. In an infected cell Cp modulates every step of the viral lifecycle. Cp is bound to nuclear viral DNA and affects its epigenetics. Cp correlates with RNA specificity. Cp assembles specifically on a reverse transcriptase-viral RNA complex or, apparently, nothing at all. Indeed Cp has been one of the model systems for investigation of virus self-assembly. Cp participates in regulation of reverse transcription. Cp signals completion of reverse transcription to support virus secretion. Cp carries both nuclear localization signals and HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) binding sites; both of these functions appear to be regulated by contents of the capsid. Cp can be targeted by antivirals -- while self-assembly is the most accessible of Cp activities, we argue that it makes sense to engage the broader spectrum of Cp function. This article forms part of a symposium in Antiviral Research on “From the discovery of the Australia antigen to the development of new curative therapies for hepatitis B: an unfinished story.” PMID:26129969

Evidence of susceptibility to lamivudine-based HAART and genetic stability of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in HIV co-infected patients: A South African longitudinal HBV whole genome study.

PubMed

Amponsah-Dacosta, Edina; Rakgole, J Nare; Gededzha, Maemu P; Lukhwareni, Azwidowi; Blackard, Jason T; Selabe, Selokela G; Mphahlele, M Jeffrey

2016-09-01

Reports on the concomitant impact of HIV co-infection and long term highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) on the genetic stability and molecular evolution of HBV are limited in sub-Saharan Africa. This retrospective study investigated the molecular evolution of chronic HBV in HIV co-infected patients on lamivudine (3TC)-based HAART over a 5year period. Four HIV co-infected patients, consecutively recruited and followed-up, were screened for hepatitis B serological markers, and their viral loads determined. The HBV genome was amplified from longitudinal samples and characterized by Bayesian inference, mutational analysis, and identification of immune selection pressure. All patients exhibited persistent chronic HBV infection at baseline, as well as over the course of follow-up despite exposure to 3TC-based HAART. The polymerase gene in all isolates was relatively variable prior to HAART initiation at baseline and during the course of follow-up, although primary drug resistance mutations were not detected. All but one patient were infected with HBV subgenotype A1. The divergence rates between baseline and the last follow-up sequences ranged from 0 to 2.0×10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y). Positive selection pressure was evident within the surface and core genes. Despite persistent HBV infection in the HIV co-infected patients exposed to long term 3TC-based HAART, the molecular evolution of HBV over a 5year period was unremarkable. In addition, HBV exhibited minimal genetic variability overtime. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic modeling strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2008-01-01

The government of Mauritania is interested in how to maintain hydrologic balance to ensure a long-term stable water supply for minerals-related, domestic, and other purposes. Because of the many complicating and competing natural and anthropogenic factors, hydrologists will perform quantitative analysis with specific objectives and relevant computer models in mind. Whereas various computer models are available for studying water-resource priorities, the success of these models to provide reliable predictions largely depends on adequacy of the model-calibration process. Predictive analysis helps us evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty associated with simulated dependent variables of our calibrated model. In this report, the hydrologic modeling process is reviewed and a strategy summarized for future Mauritanian hydrologic modeling studies.

Social Norm, Family Communication, and HBV Screening among Asian Americans.

PubMed

Juon, Hee-Soon; Rimal, Rajiv N; Klassen, Ann; Lee, Sunmin

2017-12-01

Individuals' behaviors are influenced by those of others in their social environment (i.e., descriptive norms), as well as by how individuals perceive they should behave in that environment (e.g., injunctive norms). Although social norms are thought to play an important role in hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening, limited theoretical or empirical guidance exists on how the underlying process works. In addition, norms are social phenomena that are spread through family discussion about the importance of getting HBV screening. Using the theory of normative social behavior (TNSB), this study examined the roles of injunctive norms (IN), descriptive norms (DN), and family discussion in HBV screening behavior among Asian Americans. Data from a survey of Asian Americans in the Baltimore Washington metropolitan area (N = 877) were used to test underlying theoretical propositions. DN and family discussion emerged as key factors in HBV screening behavior among all Asian Americans. IN were associated with HBV screening among Chinese and Korean Americans, but not for Vietnamese Americans. Family discussion moderated the influence of DN on behavior among Chinese and Vietnamese Americans. However, the main effect of DN on screening behavior was not modified by IN (no interactions between DN and IN). The results indicate that family discussion and social norms are integral in enabling Asian Americans to undergo HBV screening and warrant sensitivity in the design and implementation of a liver cancer prevention program in this high-risk group of Asian Americans.

Testing the structure of a hydrological model using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selle, Benny; Muttil, Nitin

2011-01-01

SummaryGenetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that Genetic Programming can be used to test the structure of hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, Genetic Programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, watertable depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using Genetic Programming, a simple model of deep percolation was recurrently evolved in multiple Genetic Programming runs. This simple and interpretable model supported the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that Genetic Programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

Sleeping Beauty transposon-based system for rapid generation of HBV-replicating stable cell lines.

PubMed

Wu, Yong; Zhang, Tian-Ying; Fang, Lin-Lin; Chen, Zi-Xuan; Song, Liu-Wei; Cao, Jia-Li; Yang, Lin; Yuan, Quan; Xia, Ning-Shao

2016-08-01

The stable HBV-replicating cell lines, which carry replication-competent HBV genome stably integrated into the genome of host cell, are widely used to evaluate the effects of antiviral agents. However, current methods to generate HBV-replicating cell lines, which are mostly dependent on random integration of foreign DNA via plasmid transfection, are less-efficient and time-consuming. To address this issue, we constructed an all-in-one Sleeping Beauty transposon system (denoted pTSMP-HBV vector) for robust generation of stable cell lines carrying replication-competent HBV genome of different genotype. This vector contains a Sleeping Beauty transposon containing HBV 1.3-copy genome with an expression cassette of the SV40 promoter driving red fluorescent protein (mCherry) and self-cleaving P2A peptide linked puromycin resistance gene (PuroR). In addition, a PGK promoter-driven SB100X hyperactive transposase cassette is placed in the outside of the transposon in the same plasmid.The HBV-replicating stable cells could be obtained from pTSMP-HBV transfected HepG2 cells by red fluorescence-activated cell sorting and puromycin resistant cell selection within 4-week. Using this system, we successfully constructed four cell lines carrying replication-competent HBV genome of genotypes A-D. The replication and viral protein expression profiles of these cells were systematically characterized. In conclusion, our study provides a high-efficiency strategy to generate HBV-replicating stable cell lines, which may facilitate HBV-related virological study. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

PubMed

Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

2014-01-01

Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

Hydrological Modeling Reproducibility Through Data Management and Adaptors for Model Interoperability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, M. A.

2015-12-01

Because of a lack of centralized planning and no widely-adopted standards among hydrological modeling research groups, research communities, and the data management teams meant to support research, there is chaos when it comes to data formats, spatio-temporal resolutions, ontologies, and data availability. All this makes true scientific reproducibility and collaborative integrated modeling impossible without some glue to piece it all together. Our Virtual Watershed Integrated Modeling System provides the tools and modeling framework hydrologists need to accelerate and fortify new scientific investigations by tracking provenance and providing adaptors for integrated, collaborative hydrologic modeling and data management. Under global warming trends where water resources are under increasing stress, reproducible hydrological modeling will be increasingly important to improve transparency and understanding of the scientific facts revealed through modeling. The Virtual Watershed Data Engine is capable of ingesting a wide variety of heterogeneous model inputs, outputs, model configurations, and metadata. We will demonstrate one example, starting from real-time raw weather station data packaged with station metadata. Our integrated modeling system will then create gridded input data via geostatistical methods along with error and uncertainty estimates. These gridded data are then used as input to hydrological models, all of which are available as web services wherever feasible. Models may be integrated in a data-centric way where the outputs too are tracked and used as inputs to "downstream" models. This work is part of an ongoing collaborative Tri-state (New Mexico, Nevada, Idaho) NSF EPSCoR Project, WC-WAVE, comprised of researchers from multiple universities in each of the three states. The tools produced and presented here have been developed collaboratively alongside watershed scientists to address specific modeling problems with an eye on the bigger picture of

Uncertainty Propagation of Non-Parametric-Derived Precipitation Estimates into Multi-Hydrologic Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the uncertainty of global precipitation datasets is beneficial when using these precipitation products in hydrological applications, because precipitation uncertainty propagation through hydrologic modeling can significantly affect the accuracy of the simulated hydrologic variables. In this research the Iberian Peninsula has been used as the study area with a study period spanning eleven years (2000-2010). This study evaluates the performance of multiple hydrologic models forced with combined global rainfall estimates derived based on a Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) technique. In QRF technique three satellite precipitation products (CMORPH, PERSIANN, and 3B42 (V7)); an atmospheric reanalysis precipitation and air temperature dataset; satellite-derived near-surface daily soil moisture data; and a terrain elevation dataset are being utilized in this study. A high-resolution, ground-based observations driven precipitation dataset (named SAFRAN) available at 5 km/1 h resolution is used as reference. Through the QRF blending framework the stochastic error model produces error-adjusted ensemble precipitation realizations, which are used to force four global hydrological models (JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), WaterGAP3 (Water-Global Assessment and Prognosis), ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) and SURFEX (Stands for Surface Externalisée) ) to simulate three hydrologic variables (surface runoff, subsurface runoff and evapotranspiration). The models are forced with the reference precipitation to generate reference-based hydrologic simulations. This study presents a comparative analysis of multiple hydrologic model simulations for different hydrologic variables and the impact of the blending algorithm on the simulated hydrologic variables. Results show how precipitation uncertainty propagates through the different hydrologic model structures to manifest in reduction of error in hydrologic variables.

Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, C. Ashton; Eddy, Michele; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Augspurger, Tom

2018-01-01

The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic suitability, is a key criterion for successful conservation and restoration of aquatic species. We used the example of the critically endangered Tar River Spinymussel (Parvaspina steinstansana) and associated species to demonstrate the value of modeled flow data (WaterFALL™) to generate novel insights into population structure and testable hypotheses regarding hydrologic suitability. With ordination models, we: 1) identified all catchments with potentially suitable hydrology, 2) identified 2 distinct hydrologic environments occupied by the Tar River Spinymussel, and 3) estimated greater hydrological habitat niche breadth of assumed surrogate species associates at the catchment scale. Our findings provide the first demonstrated application of complete, continuous, regional modeled hydrologic data to freshwater mussel distribution and management. This research highlights the utility of modeling and data-mining methods to facilitate further exploration and application of such modeled environmental conditions to inform aquatic species management. We conclude that such an approach can support landscape-scale management decisions that require spatial information at fine resolution (e.g., enhanced National Hydrology Dataset catchments) and broad extent (e.g., multiple river basins).

Natural history of acute and chronic hepatitis B: The role of HBV genotypes and mutants.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Lin; Kao, Jia-Horng

2017-06-01

Molecular epidemiologic studies reveal remarkable differences in the geographical distribution of hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes. The frequency of mutants among HBV genotypes also varies. The role of HBV genotypes/mutants in the pathogenesis of HBV infection and natural history of HBV infection has been extensively investigated. The distribution of HBV genotypes in acute hepatitis B patients reflects the predominant genotypes in a given geographic area. In chronic hepatitis B patients, genotype C and D have a higher frequency of basal core promoter A1762T/G1764A mutations than genotype A and B. HBV genotypes C, D and F carry a higher lifetime risk of cirrhosis and HCC development than genotype A and B. HBV pre-S/S gene mutations were associated with immune escape of hepatitis B immunoglobulin or vaccine-induced immunity. Mutations in the pre-S, core promoter and X regions correlate with an increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC. In summary, HBV genotypes and mutants are associated with the disease progression and long-term outcome of HBV infection. They may serve as viral genetic markers for risk stratification of chronic hepatitis B patients in clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

2016-02-01

This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Charles H. Luce; Alan F. Hamlet; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville

2010-01-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe...

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of

Bloodborne Pathogens: HIV and HBV Contagion Risks at Camp.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skaros, Susan

1996-01-01

AIDS and hepatitis B are diseases caused by the viruses HIV and HBV, respectively, which are spread in blood and body fluids. HBV is 100 times more contagious than HIV. Diligent implementation of universal precautions, an exposure control plan, use of personal protective equipment, a vaccination program, and ongoing staff and camper education can…

Molecular characterization of hepatitis B virus (HBV) strains circulating in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf and its comparison with worldwide distribution of HBV subgenotype D1.

PubMed

Pourkarim, Mahmoud Reza; Vergote, Valentijn; Amini-Bavil-Olyaee, Samad; Sharifi, Zohre; Sijmons, Steven; Lemey, Philippe; Maes, Piet; Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Van Ranst, Marc

2014-05-01

Iran is a large country that covers the northern coast of the Persian Gulf. Iranian residents of this coastal region interact closely with people from neighboring countries because of historical and cultural relationships, as well as economic activities. In addition, the inhabitants of this border region have experienced several wars, which have affected public health infrastructures. This study characterized for the first time, the evolution of the full-length genome of HBV strains in asymptomatic carrier patients living in this particular region. In addition, this study was compared and complemented by a comprehensive evolutionary analysis of the worldwide geographical distribution of HBV subgenotype D1. Evolutionary analysis demonstrates that patients living in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf are mainly infected with HBV subgenotype D1, subtype ayw2. Specific mutations related to advanced liver disease were found more frequently in these strains compared to other strains isolated from asymptomatic carriers from other regions of Iran. This global comprehensive analysis showed that HBV subgenotype D1 strains have a worldwide distribution and that human mobility and immigration had a large impact on dispersal of HBV subgenotype D1, subtype ayw2 in Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey. In addition to association of subtype ayw2 with subgenotype D1, it was demonstrated that other HBV subtypes like adw2, ayw1, and ayw3 are associated with HBV subgenotype D1 in different regions of the world. This study also revealed a remarkable distribution of subgenotype D1, subtype ayw4 although this particular subtype is associated with subgenotype D4 of HBV in European countries. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference

Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables of the GLDAS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta

Continental hydrological loading, by land water, snow, and ice, is an element that is strongly needed for a full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (Hydrological Angular Momentum - HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of land hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of different variables for example: total evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt, soil moisture to polar motion excitations in annual and short term scale. In our consideration we employ several realizations of the GLDAS model as: GLDAS Common Land Model (CLM), GLDAS Mosaic Model, GLDAS National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Oregon State University/Air Force/Hydrologic Research Lab Model (Noah), GLDAS Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion, both global and regional, are determined by using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. First we compare a timing, spectra and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs with each other. Next, we estimate, the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation by subtracting the atmospheric -- AAM (pressure + wind) and oceanic -- OAM (bottom pressure + currents) contributions. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared to these hydrological signal in observed polar motion excitation series. The results help us understand which variables of considered hydrological models are the most important for the polar motion excitation and how well we can close polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges.

Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

Correcting Inadequate Model Snow Process Descriptions Dramatically Improves Mountain Hydrology Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomeroy, J. W.; Fang, X.

2014-12-01

The vast effort in hydrology devoted to parameter calibration as a means to improve model performance assumes that the models concerned are not fundamentally wrong. By focussing on finding optimal parameter sets and ascribing poor model performance to parameter or data uncertainty, these efforts may fail to consider the need to improve models with more intelligent descriptions of hydrological processes. To test this hypothesis, a flexible physically based hydrological model including a full suite of snow hydrology processes as well as warm season, hillslope and groundwater hydrology was applied to Marmot Creek Research Basin, Canadian Rocky Mountains where excellent driving meteorology and basin biophysical descriptions exist. Model parameters were set from values found in the basin or from similar environments; no parameters were calibrated. The model was tested against snow surveys and streamflow observations. The model used algorithms that describe snow redistribution, sublimation and forest canopy effects on snowmelt and evaporative processes that are rarely implemented in hydrological models. To investigate the contribution of these processes to model predictive capability, the model was "falsified" by deleting parameterisations for forest canopy snow mass and energy, blowing snow, intercepted rain evaporation, and sublimation. Model falsification by ignoring forest canopy processes contributed to a large increase in SWE errors for forested portions of the research basin with RMSE increasing from 19 to 55 mm and mean bias (MB) increasing from 0.004 to 0.62. In the alpine tundra portion, removing blowing processes resulted in an increase in model SWE MB from 0.04 to 2.55 on north-facing slopes and -0.006 to -0.48 on south-facing slopes. Eliminating these algorithms degraded streamflow prediction with the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency dropping from 0.58 to 0.22 and MB increasing from 0.01 to 0.09. These results show dramatic model improvements by including snow

Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

2016-01-01

The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

The paradox of HBV evolution as revealed from a 16th century mummy

PubMed Central

Duggan, Ana T.; Poinar, Debi; Poinar, Hendrik N.

2018-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a ubiquitous viral pathogen associated with large-scale morbidity and mortality in humans. However, there is considerable uncertainty over the time-scale of its origin and evolution. Initial shotgun data from a mid-16th century Italian child mummy, that was previously paleopathologically identified as having been infected with Variola virus (VARV, the agent of smallpox), showed no DNA reads for VARV yet did for hepatitis B virus (HBV). Previously, electron microscopy provided evidence for the presence of VARV in this sample, although similar analyses conducted here did not reveal any VARV particles. We attempted to enrich and sequence for both VARV and HBV DNA. Although we did not recover any reads identified as VARV, we were successful in reconstructing an HBV genome at 163.8X coverage. Strikingly, both the HBV sequence and that of the associated host mitochondrial DNA displayed a nearly identical cytosine deamination pattern near the termini of DNA fragments, characteristic of an ancient origin. In contrast, phylogenetic analyses revealed a close relationship between the putative ancient virus and contemporary HBV strains (of genotype D), at first suggesting contamination. In addressing this paradox we demonstrate that HBV evolution is characterized by a marked lack of temporal structure. This confounds attempts to use molecular clock-based methods to date the origin of this virus over the time-frame sampled so far, and means that phylogenetic measures alone cannot yet be used to determine HBV sequence authenticity. If genuine, this phylogenetic pattern indicates that the genotypes of HBV diversified long before the 16th century, and enables comparison of potential pathogenic similarities between modern and ancient HBV. These results have important implications for our understanding of the emergence and evolution of this common viral pathogen. PMID:29300782

Feedback Loop of Data Infilling Using Model Result of Actual Evapotranspiration from Satellites and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdi Hartanto, Isnaeni; Alexandridis, Thomas K.; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Solomatine, Dimitri

2014-05-01

Using satellite data in a hydrological model has long been occurring in modelling of hydrological processes, as a source of low cost regular data. The methods range from using satellite products as direct input, model validation, and data assimilation. However, the satellite data frequently face the missing value problem, whether due to the cloud cover or the limited temporal coverage. The problem could seriously affect its usefulness in hydrological model, especially if the model uses it as direct input, so data infilling becomes one of the important parts in the whole modelling exercise. In this research, actual evapotranspiration product from satellite is directly used as input into a spatially distributed hydrological model, and validated by comparing the catchment's end discharge with measured data. The instantaneous actual evapotranspiration is estimated from MODIS satellite images using a variation of the energy balance model for land (SEBAL). The eight-day cumulative actual evapotranspiration is then obtained by a temporal integration that uses the reference evapotranspiration calculated from meteorological data [1]. However, the above method cannot fill in a cell if the cell is constantly having no-data value during the eight-day periods. The hydrological model requires full set of data without no-data cells, hence, the no-data cells in the satellite's evapotranspiration map need to be filled in. In order to fills the no-data cells, an output of hydrological model is used. The hydrological model is firstly run with reference evapotranspiration as input to calculate discharge and actual evapotranspiration. The no-data cells in the eight-day cumulative map from the satellite are then filled in with the output of the first run of hydrological model. The final data is then used as input in a hydrological model to calculate discharge, thus creating a loop. The method is applied in the case study of Rijnland, the Netherlands where in the winter, cloud cover is

JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

2015-04-01

Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

Treesearch

G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

2015-01-01

Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

Clonorchis sinensis Co-infection Could Affect the Disease State and Treatment Response of HBV Patients.

PubMed

Li, Wenfang; Dong, Huimin; Huang, Yan; Chen, Tingjin; Kong, Xiangzhan; Sun, Hengchang; Yu, Xinbing; Xu, Jin

2016-06-01

Clonorchis sinensis (C. sinensis) is considered to be an important parasitic zoonosis because it infects approximately 35 million people, while approximately 15 million were distributed in China. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health issue. Two types of pathogens have the potential to cause human liver disease and eventually hepatocellular carcinoma. Concurrent infection with HBV and C. sinensis is often observed in some areas where C. sinensis is endemic. However, whether C. sinensis could impact HBV infection or vice versa remains unknown. Co-infection with C. sinensis and HBV develops predominantly in males. Co-infected C. sinensis and HBV patients presented weaker liver function and higher HBV DNA titers. Combination treatment with antiviral and anti-C. sinensis drugs in co-infected patients could contribute to a reduction in viral load and help with liver function recovery. Excretory-secretory products (ESPs) may, in some ways, increase HBV viral replication in vitro. A mixture of ESP and HBV positive sera could induce peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) to produce higher level of Th2 cytokines including IL-4, IL-6 and IL-10 compared to HBV alone, it seems that due to presence of ESP, the cytokine production shift towards Th2. C. sinensis/HBV co-infected patients showed higher serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels and lower serum IFN-γ levels. Patients with concomitant C. sinensis and HBV infection presented weaker liver function and higher HBV DNA copies. In co-infected patients, the efficacy of anti-viral treatment was better in patients who were prescribed with entecavir and praziquantel than entecavir alone. One possible reason for the weaker response to antiviral therapies in co-infected patients was the shift in cytokine production from Th1 to Th2 that may inhibit viral clearance. C. sinensis/HBV co-infection could exacerbate the imbalance of Th1/Th2 cytokine.

A European multicenter study on the analytical performance of the VERIS HBV assay.

PubMed

Braun, Patrick; Delgado, Rafael; Drago, Monica; Fanti, Diana; Fleury, Hervé; Izopet, Jacques; Lombardi, Alessandra; Mancon, Alessandro; Marcos, Maria Angeles; Sauné, Karine; O Shea, Siobhan; Pérez-Rivilla, Alfredo; Ramble, John; Trimoulet, Pascale; Vila, Jordi; Whittaker, Duncan; Artus, Alain; Rhodes, Daniel

Hepatitis B viral load monitoring is an essential part of managing patients with chronic Hepatits B infection. Beckman Coulter has developed the VERIS HBV Assay for use on the fully automated Beckman Coulter DxN VERIS Molecular Diagnostics System. 1 OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the analytical performance of the VERIS HBV Assay at multiple European virology laboratories. Precision, analytical sensitivity, negative sample performance, linearity and performance with major HBV genotypes/subtypes for the VERIS HBV Assay was evaluated. Precision showed an SD of 0.15 log 10 IU/mL or less for each level tested. Analytical sensitivity determined by probit analysis was between 6.8-8.0 IU/mL. Clinical specificity on 90 unique patient samples was 100.0%. Performance with 754 negative samples demonstrated 100.0% not detected results, and a carryover study showed no cross contamination. Linearity using clinical samples was shown from 1.23-8.23 log 10 IU/mL and the assay detected and showed linearity with major HBV genotypes/subtypes. The VERIS HBV Assay demonstrated comparable analytical performance to other currently marketed assays for HBV DNA monitoring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

On science versus engineering in hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke

2017-04-01

It is always stressed that hydrological modelling is very important, to prevent floods, to mitigate droughts, to ensure food production or nature conservation. All very true, but I believe that focussing so much on the application of our knowledge (which I call `the engineering approach'), does not stimulate thorough system understanding (which I call `the scientific approach'). In many studies, science and engineering approaches are mixed, which results in large uncertainty e.g. due to a lack of system understanding. To what extent engineering and science approached are mixed depends on the Philosophy of Science of the researcher; verificationism seems to be closer related to engineering, than falsificationism or Bayesianism. In order to grow our scientific knowledge, which means increasing our understanding of the system, we need to be more critical towards the models that we use, but also recognize all the processes that influence the hydrological cycle. In an era called 'The Anthropocene' the influence of humans on the water system can no longer be neglected, and if we choose a scientific approach we have to account for human-induced processes. Summarizing, I believe that we have to account for human impact on the hydrological system, but we have to resist the temptation to directly quantify the hydrological impact on the human system.

Comparisons of regional Hydrological Angular Momentum (HAM) of the different models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Kolaczek, B.; Popinski, W.

2006-10-01

In the paper hydrological excitations of the polar motion (HAM) were computed from various hydrological data series (NCEP, ECMWF, CPC water storage and LaD World Simulations of global continental water). HAM series obtained from these four models and the geodetic excitation function GEOD computed from the polar motion COMB03 data were compared in the seasonal spectral band. The results show big differences of these hydrological excitation functions as well as of their spectra in the seasonal spectra band. Seasonal oscillations of the global geophysical excitation functions (AAM + OAM + HAM) in all cases besides the NCEP/NCAR model are smaller than the geodetic excitation function. It means that these models need further improvement and perhaps not only hydrological models need improvements.

Efficacy of Ledipasvir and Sofosbuvir Treatment of HCV Infection in Patients Coinfected With HBV.

PubMed

Liu, Chun-Jen; Chuang, Wan-Long; Sheen, I-Shyan; Wang, Horng-Yuan; Chen, Chi-Yi; Tseng, Kuo-Chih; Chang, Ting-Tsung; Massetto, Benedetta; Yang, Jenny C; Yun, Chohee; Knox, Steven J; Osinusi, Anu; Camus, Gregory; Jiang, Deyuan; Brainard, Diana M; McHutchison, John G; Hu, Tsung-Hui; Hsu, You-Chun; Lo, Gin-Ho; Chu, Chi-Jen; Chen, Jyh-Jou; Peng, Cheng-Yuan; Chien, Ron-Nan; Chen, Pei-Jer

2018-03-01

There have been reports of reactivation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection during treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with direct-acting antiviral agents. We performed a prospective study of risks and outcomes of HCV infection treatment with ledipasvir and sofosbuvir in patients with HBV infection. We performed a phase 3b, multicenter, open-label study in Taiwan of 111 patients with HCV infection (61% HCV genotype 1, 39% HCV genotype 2 infection; 62% women, 16% with compensated cirrhosis) along with HBV infection. All but 1 were positive for the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg); 1 patient who was HBsAg-positive at screening was found to be HBsAg-negative at baseline. Overall, 33% of participants had received prior treatment for HCV and 5% had previously been treated for HBV; no patient was on HBV therapy at the start of the study. All patients received a fixed-dose combination of 90 mg of the HCV NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir with 400 mg of the NS5B nucleotide analogue inhibitor sofosbuvir, once daily for 12 weeks. The primary endpoint was sustained virologic response 12 weeks after the end of therapy. All 111 patients (100%) achieved a sustained virologic response. Of the 37 patients with baseline HBV DNA below 20 IU/mL, 31 (84%) had at least 1 episode of quantifiable HBV DNA through posttreatment week 12. Of the 74 patients with baseline HBV DNA levels of 20 IU/mL or more, 39 (53%) had increases of HBV DNA greater than 1 log 10 IU/mL through posttreatment week 12. Overall, 5 patients had increased levels of HBV DNA concomitant with a level of alanine aminotransferase >2 times the upper limit of normal through posttreatment week 12. Of these, 3 patients started HBV treatment. In addition, 1 patient with HBV reactivation since week 8 and concomitant alanine aminotransferase elevation >2 times upper limit of normal at posttreatment week 48 started treatment at posttreatment week 53. This patient had clinical signs and symptoms associated with HBV

Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

2017-12-01

The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

Probabilistic flood inundation prediction within a coupled hydrodynamic, distributed hydrologic modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, T. E.

2016-12-01

Accurate and timely predictions of the lateral exent of floodwaters and water level depth in floodplain areas are critical globally. This paper demonstrates the coupling of hydrologic ensembles, derived from the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forcings as input to a fully distributed hydrologic model. Resulting ensemble output from the distributed hydrologic model are used as upstream flow boundaries and lateral inflows to a 1-D hydrodynamic model. An example is presented for the Potomac River in the vicinity of Washington, DC (USA). The approach taken falls within the broader goals of the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX).

Strategies for using remotely sensed data in hydrologic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peck, E. L.; Keefer, T. N.; Johnson, E. R. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Present and planned remote sensing capabilities were evaluated. The usefulness of six remote sensing capabilities (soil moisture, land cover, impervious area, areal extent of snow cover, areal extent of frozen ground, and water equivalent of the snow cover) with seven hydrologic models (API, CREAMS, NWSRFS, STORM, STANFORD, SSARR, and NWSRFS Snowmelt) were reviewed. The results indicate remote sensing information has only limited value for use with the hydrologic models in their present form. With minor modifications to the models the usefulness would be enhanced. Specific recommendations are made for incorporating snow covered area measurements in the NWSRFS Snowmelt model. Recommendations are also made for incorporating soil moisture measurements in NWSRFS. Suggestions are made for incorporating snow covered area, soil moisture, and others in STORM and SSARR. General characteristics of a hydrologic model needed to make maximum use of remotely sensed data are discussed. Suggested goals for improvements in remote sensing for use in models are also established.

Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

2015-04-01

International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

Neural Networks for Hydrological Modeling Tool for Operational Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu

2010-05-01

Hydrological models are useful in many water resources applications such as flood control, irrigation and drainage, hydro power generation, water supply, erosion and sediment control, etc. Estimates of runoff are needed in many water resources planning, design development, operation and maintenance activities. Runoff is generally computed using rainfall-runoff models. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular for obtaining hydrological forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia consisting of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models, and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. Recently, soft artificial intelligence tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become popular for research purposes but have not been adopted in operational hydrological forecasts. There is a strong need to develop ANN models based on real catchment data and compare them with the conceptual models actually in use in real catchments. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of RRL and ANNs are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, SimHyd model has been used. Genetic Algorithm has been used as an optimizer in the RRL to calibrate the SimHyd model. Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the GA optimizer to develop the SimHyd model. The results obtained from the best configuration of the SimHyd model are presented here. Feed-forward neural network model structure trained by back-propagation training algorithm has been adopted here to develop the ANN models. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models

Quantifying and Generalizing Hydrologic Responses to Dam Regulation using a Statistical Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A

2014-01-01

Despite the ubiquitous existence of dams within riverscapes, much of our knowledge about dams and their environmental effects remains context-specific. Hydrology, more than any other environmental variable, has been studied in great detail with regard to dam regulation. While much progress has been made in generalizing the hydrologic effects of regulation by large dams, many aspects of hydrology show site-specific fidelity to dam operations, small dams (including diversions), and regional hydrologic regimes. A statistical modeling framework is presented to quantify and generalize hydrologic responses to varying degrees of dam regulation. Specifically, the objectives were to 1) compare the effects ofmore » local versus cumulative dam regulation, 2) determine the importance of different regional hydrologic regimes in influencing hydrologic responses to dams, and 3) evaluate how different regulation contexts lead to error in predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Overall, model performance was poor in quantifying the magnitude of hydrologic responses, but performance was sufficient in classifying hydrologic responses as negative or positive. Responses of some hydrologic indices to dam regulation were highly dependent upon hydrologic class membership and the purpose of the dam. The opposing coefficients between local and cumulative-dam predictors suggested that hydrologic responses to cumulative dam regulation are complex, and predicting the hydrology downstream of individual dams, as opposed to multiple dams, may be more easy accomplished using statistical approaches. Results also suggested that particular contexts, including multipurpose dams, high cumulative regulation by multiple dams, diversions, close proximity to dams, and certain hydrologic classes are all sources of increased error when predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Statistical models, such as the ones presented herein, show promise in their ability to model the effects of dam regulation effects

Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Andrew W; Leung, Lai R; Sridhar, V

Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year retrospective (1975–1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the implications of the comparison for a future (2040–2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored. The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical downscaling methods – linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregationmore » (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) – each applied to both PCM output directly (at T42 spatial resolution), and after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM – at ½-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation, and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic model with observations. The most significant findings are that the BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation, when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations. Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless, neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario, only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able

A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

Modeling non-linear growth responses to temperature and hydrology in wetland trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.

2016-12-01

Growth responses of wetland trees to flooding and climate variations are difficult to model because they depend on multiple, apparently interacting factors, but are a critical link in hydrological control of wetland carbon budgets. To more generally understand tree growth to hydrological forcing, we modeled non-linear responses of tree ring growth to flooding and climate at sub-annual time steps, using Vaganov-Shashkin response functions. We calibrated the model to six baldcypress tree-ring chronologies from two hydrologically distinct sites in southern Louisiana, and tested several hypotheses of plasticity in wetlands tree responses to interacting environmental variables. The model outperformed traditional multiple linear regression. More importantly, optimized response parameters were generally similar among sites with varying hydrological conditions, suggesting generality to the functions. Model forms that included interacting responses to multiple forcing factors were more effective than were single response functions, indicating the principle of a single limiting factor is not correct in wetlands and both climatic and hydrological variables must be considered in predicting responses to hydrological or climate change.

Rapid Deterioration of Latent HBV Hepatitis during Cushing Disease and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder after Earthquake.

PubMed

Tashiro, Ryosuke; Ogawa, Yoshikazu; Tominaga, Teiji

2017-07-01

Reactivation of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a risk in the 350 million HBV carriers worldwide. HBV reactivation may cause hepatocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis, and fulminant hepatitis, and HBV reactivation accompanied with malignant tumor and/or chemotherapy is a critical problem for patients with chronic HBV infection. Multiple risk factors causing an immunosuppressive state can also induce HBV reactivation.We present a case of HBV reactivation during an immunosuppressive state caused by Cushing disease and physical and psychological stress after a disaster. A 47-year-old Japanese woman was an inactive HBV carrier until the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred and follow-up was discontinued. One year after the earthquake she had intractable hypertension, and her visual acuity gradually worsened. Head magnetic resonance imaging showed a sellar tumor compressing the optic chiasm, and hepatic dysfunction with HBV reactivation was identified. Endocrinologic examination established the diagnosis as Cushing disease. After normalization of hepatic dysfunction with antiviral therapy, transsphenoidal tumor removal was performed that resulted in subtotal removal except the right cavernous portion. Steroid hormone supplementation was discontinued after 3 days of administration, and gamma knife therapy was performed for the residual tumor. Eighteen months after the operation, adrenocorticotropic hormone and cortisol values returned to normal. The patient has been free from tumor regrowth and HBV reactivation throughout the postoperative course.Accomplishment of normalization with intrinsic steroid value with minimization of steroid supplementation should be established. Precise operative procedures and careful treatment planning are essential to avoid HBV reactivation in patients with this threatening condition. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

PubMed Central

Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

2014-01-01

A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R 2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

Type I IFN augments IL-27-dependent TRIM25 expression to inhibit HBV replication.

PubMed

Tan, Guangyun; Xiao, Qingfei; Song, Hongxiao; Ma, Feng; Xu, Fengchao; Peng, Di; Li, Na; Wang, Xiaosong; Niu, Junqi; Gao, Pujun; Qin, F Xiao-Feng; Cheng, Genhong

2018-03-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can cause chronic hepatitis B, which may lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer. Type I interferon (IFN) is an approved drug for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. However, the fundamental mechanisms of antiviral action by type I IFN and the downstream signaling pathway are unclear. TRIM25 is an IFN-stimulated gene (ISG) that has an important role in RIG-I ubiquitination and activation. Whether TRIM25 is induced in liver cells by type I IFN to mediate anti-HBV function remains unclear. Here we report that interleukin-27 (IL-27) has a critical role in IFN-induced TRIM25 upregulation. TRIM25 induction requires both STAT1 and STAT3. In TRIM25 knockout HepG2 cells, type I IFN production was consistently attenuated and HBV replication was increased, whereas overexpression of TRIM25 in HepG2 cells resulted in elevated IFN production and reduced HBV replication. More interestingly, we found that TRIM25 expression was downregulated in HBV patients and the addition of serum samples from HBV patients could inhibit TRIM25 expression in HepG2 cells, suggesting that HBV might have involved a mechanism to inhibit antiviral ISG expression and induce IFN resistance. Collectively, our results demonstrate that type I IFN -induced TRIM25 is an important factor in inhibiting HBV replication, and the IFN-IL-27-TRIM25 axis may represent a new target for treating HBV infection.

Suppression of HBV replication by the expression of nickase- and nuclease dead-Cas9.

PubMed

Kurihara, Takeshi; Fukuhara, Takasuke; Ono, Chikako; Yamamoto, Satomi; Uemura, Kentaro; Okamoto, Toru; Sugiyama, Masaya; Motooka, Daisuke; Nakamura, Shota; Ikawa, Masato; Mizokami, Masashi; Maehara, Yoshihiko; Matsuura, Yoshiharu

2017-07-21

Complete removal of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA from nuclei is difficult by the current therapies. Recent reports have shown that a novel genome-editing tool using Cas9 with a single-guide RNA (sgRNA) system can cleave the HBV genome in vitro and in vivo. However, induction of a double-strand break (DSB) on the targeted genome by Cas9 risks undesirable off-target cleavage on the host genome. Nickase-Cas9 cleaves a single strand of DNA, and thereby two sgRNAs are required for inducing DSBs. To avoid Cas9-induced off-target mutagenesis, we examined the effects of the expressions of nickase-Cas9 and nuclease dead Cas9 (d-Cas9) with sgRNAs on HBV replication. The expression of nickase-Cas9 with a pair of sgRNAs cleaved the target HBV genome and suppressed the viral-protein expression and HBV replication in vitro. Moreover, nickase-Cas9 with the sgRNA pair cleaved the targeted HBV genome in mouse liver. Interestingly, d-Cas9 expression with the sgRNAs also suppressed HBV replication in vitro without cleaving the HBV genome. These results suggest the possible use of nickase-Cas9 and d-Cas9 with a pair of sgRNAs for eliminating HBV DNA from the livers of chronic hepatitis B patients with low risk of undesirable off-target mutation on the host genome.

Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

2017-12-01

Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

Infectivity of HBV DNA positive donations identified in look-back studies in Hyogo-Prefecture, Japan.

PubMed

Bouike, Y; Imoto, S; Mabuchi, O; Kokubunji, A; Kai, S; Okada, M; Taniguchi, R; Momose, S; Uchida, S; Nishio, H

2011-04-01

To clarify transfusion incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected blood negative for mini pool-nucleic acid amplification testing (MP-NAT). Japanese Red Cross (JRC) blood centres screen donated blood to avoid contamination with HBV. However, a low copy number of HBV may be overlooked. In Hyogo-Prefecture, JRC blood centres screened 787 695 donations for HBV from April 2005 to March 2009. Of these, 685 844 were donations from the repeat donors. To detect the donors with HBV, serological tests, MP-NAT and/or individual donation (ID)-NAT were performed. To detect the recipients with transfusion-transmitted HBV infection (TTHBI), serological analysis and/or ID-NAT were performed. In this study, 265 of the 685 844 repeat donations were serologically and/or MP-NAT positive for HBV. Their repository samples from the previous donation were examined in a look-back study; 13 of the 265 repository samples proved ID-NAT positive. Twelve recipients were transfused with HBV-infected blood components derived from 10 of the 13 HBV-infected donors. Only 1 of the 12 recipients was identified as TTHBI case. Seven of the 12 recipients escaped from our follow-up study and 4 recipients were negative for HBV during the observation period. On the basis of the look-back study among the repeat donors in Hyogo-Prefecture, Japan, donations with HBV-infected blood negative for MP-NAT occurred with a frequency of 13 in 685 844 donations (∼1/53 000 donations). However, more than half of the recipients transfused with HBV-infected blood negative for MP-NAT could not be followed up. It is necessary to establish a more cautious follow-up system. © 2010 The Authors. Transfusion Medicine © 2010 British Blood Transfusion Society.

Hepatitis B infection among HIV infected individuals in Gabon: Occult hepatitis B enhances HBV DNA prevalence

PubMed Central

Amougou-Atsama, Marie; Zoa-Assoumou, Samira; M’boyis Kamdem, Hervé; Nzengui-Nzengui, Guy Francis; Ndojyi-Mbiguino, Angélique; Njouom, Richard; François-Souquière, Sandrine

2018-01-01

In Gabon, a central African country, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) are endemic. In a recent study, conducted in a semi-urban area (Franceville, Gabon), HBV infection was found to be more prevalent among HIV infected individuals. This study aims to investigate the prevalence and genetic diversity of hepatitis B virus infection among HIV infected individuals, predominantly under antiretroviral therapy, living in fully urbanized area: Libreville, capital of Gabon. Serological and molecular tests were performed to detect HBV infection among patients living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA). We used Monolisa HBsAg ULTRA, Anti-HBc Plus and Anti-HBs Plus EIA kits for serological analyses. HBV DNA viral load (HBV DNA VL) was determined by real time PCR and molecular characterization of HBV strains was performed by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of partial HBV surface and core genes. At all, 70.2% of patients were under antiretroviral therapy. The prevalence of HBsAg was 8.8% (43/487). Detectable HBV DNA was found in 69.7% (30/43) of HBsAg positive patients and in 17.5% (24/137) HBsAg negative patients. HBV DNA VL was significantly higher among patient with CD4 cell counts less than 200 cells/mm3 than those with CD4 cell counts greater than 500 cells/mm3 (p = 0.008). We confirmed the presence of HBV sub-genotypes QS-A3 (40%), and A4 (20%) and HBV-E genotype (40%). The percentage of resistance to Lamivudine was high (40%) and varied according to the M204V/I motif. Occult hepatitis B infection (OBI) was found in patients with isolated HBcAb and among patients who had completed their HBsAg seroconversion. We detected HBV DNA for one patient without any HBV serological marker. This study provides a new landmark for the comprehension of HBV infection in PLHA in urban areas. OBI enhances HBV DNA prevalence and should be investigated in all HBsAg negative individuals. PMID:29315352

Hepatitis B infection among HIV infected individuals in Gabon: Occult hepatitis B enhances HBV DNA prevalence.

PubMed

Bivigou-Mboumba, Berthold; Amougou-Atsama, Marie; Zoa-Assoumou, Samira; M'boyis Kamdem, Hervé; Nzengui-Nzengui, Guy Francis; Ndojyi-Mbiguino, Angélique; Njouom, Richard; François-Souquière, Sandrine

2018-01-01

In Gabon, a central African country, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) are endemic. In a recent study, conducted in a semi-urban area (Franceville, Gabon), HBV infection was found to be more prevalent among HIV infected individuals. This study aims to investigate the prevalence and genetic diversity of hepatitis B virus infection among HIV infected individuals, predominantly under antiretroviral therapy, living in fully urbanized area: Libreville, capital of Gabon. Serological and molecular tests were performed to detect HBV infection among patients living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA). We used Monolisa HBsAg ULTRA, Anti-HBc Plus and Anti-HBs Plus EIA kits for serological analyses. HBV DNA viral load (HBV DNA VL) was determined by real time PCR and molecular characterization of HBV strains was performed by sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of partial HBV surface and core genes. At all, 70.2% of patients were under antiretroviral therapy. The prevalence of HBsAg was 8.8% (43/487). Detectable HBV DNA was found in 69.7% (30/43) of HBsAg positive patients and in 17.5% (24/137) HBsAg negative patients. HBV DNA VL was significantly higher among patient with CD4 cell counts less than 200 cells/mm3 than those with CD4 cell counts greater than 500 cells/mm3 (p = 0.008). We confirmed the presence of HBV sub-genotypes QS-A3 (40%), and A4 (20%) and HBV-E genotype (40%). The percentage of resistance to Lamivudine was high (40%) and varied according to the M204V/I motif. Occult hepatitis B infection (OBI) was found in patients with isolated HBcAb and among patients who had completed their HBsAg seroconversion. We detected HBV DNA for one patient without any HBV serological marker. This study provides a new landmark for the comprehension of HBV infection in PLHA in urban areas. OBI enhances HBV DNA prevalence and should be investigated in all HBsAg negative individuals.

Baseline characteristics of HIV & hepatitis B virus (HIV/HBV) co-infected patients from Kolkata, India

PubMed Central

Sarkar, Jayeeta; Saha, Debraj; Bandyopadhyay, Bhaswati; Saha, Bibhuti; Kedia, Deepika; Guha Mazumder, D.N.; Chakravarty, Runu; Guha, Subhasish Kamal

2016-01-01

Background & objectives: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and HIV co-infection has variable prevalence worldwide. In comparison to HBV mono-infection, the course of chronic HBV infection is accelerated in HIV/HBV co-infected patients. The present study was carried out to analyse the baseline characteristics (clinical, biochemical, serological and virological) of treatment naïve HIV/HBV co-infected and HIV mono-infected patients. Methods: Between July 2011 and January 2013, a total number of 1331 HIV-seropositive treatment naïve individuals, enrolled in the ART Centre of Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, India, were screened for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). A total of 1253 HIV mono-infected and 78 HIV/HBV co-infected patients were characterized. The co-infected patients were evaluated for HBeAg and anti-HBe antibody by ELISA. HIV RNA was quantified for all co-infected patients. HBV DNA was detected and quantified by real time-PCR amplification followed by HBV genotype determination. Results: HIV/HBV co-infected patients had proportionately more advanced HIV disease (WHO clinical stage 3 and 4) than HIV mono-infected individuals (37.1 vs. 19.9%). The co-infected patients had significantly higher serum bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase and ALT/platelet ratio index (APRI). CD4 count was non-significantly lower in co-infected patients. Majority (61.5%) were HBeAg positive with higher HIV RNA (P<0.05), HBV DNA (P<0.001) and APRI (P<0.05) compared to those who were HBeAg negative. HBV/D was the predominant genotype (73.2%) and D2 (43.7%) was the commonest subgenotype. Interpretation & conclusions: HIV/HBV co-infected patients had significantly higher serum bilirubin, ALT, alkaline phosphatase and lower platelet count. HBeAg positive co-infected patients had higher HIV RNA and HBV DNA compared to HBeAg negative co-infected patients. Prior to initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) all patients should be screened for HBsAg to

Clonorchis sinensis Co-infection Could Affect the Disease State and Treatment Response of HBV Patients

PubMed Central

Huang, Yan; Chen, Tingjin; Kong, Xiangzhan; Sun, Hengchang; Yu, Xinbing; Xu, Jin

2016-01-01

Background Clonorchis sinensis (C. sinensis) is considered to be an important parasitic zoonosis because it infects approximately 35 million people, while approximately 15 million were distributed in China. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health issue. Two types of pathogens have the potential to cause human liver disease and eventually hepatocellular carcinoma. Concurrent infection with HBV and C. sinensis is often observed in some areas where C. sinensis is endemic. However, whether C. sinensis could impact HBV infection or vice versa remains unknown. Principal Findings Co-infection with C. sinensis and HBV develops predominantly in males. Co-infected C. sinensis and HBV patients presented weaker liver function and higher HBV DNA titers. Combination treatment with antiviral and anti-C. sinensis drugs in co-infected patients could contribute to a reduction in viral load and help with liver function recovery. Excretory-secretory products (ESPs) may, in some ways, increase HBV viral replication in vitro. A mixture of ESP and HBV positive sera could induce peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) to produce higher level of Th2 cytokines including IL-4, IL-6 and IL-10 compared to HBV alone, it seems that due to presence of ESP, the cytokine production shift towards Th2. C. sinensis/HBV co-infected patients showed higher serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels and lower serum IFN-γ levels. Conclusions/Significance Patients with concomitant C. sinensis and HBV infection presented weaker liver function and higher HBV DNA copies. In co-infected patients, the efficacy of anti-viral treatment was better in patients who were prescribed with entecavir and praziquantel than entecavir alone. One possible reason for the weaker response to antiviral therapies in co-infected patients was the shift in cytokine production from Th1 to Th2 that may inhibit viral clearance. C. sinensis/HBV co-infection could exacerbate the imbalance of Th1/Th2 cytokine. PMID:27348302

Baseline characteristics of HIV & hepatitis B virus (HIV/HBV) co-infected patients from Kolkata, India.

PubMed

Sarkar, Jayeeta; Saha, Debraj; Bandyopadhyay, Bhaswati; Saha, Bibhuti; Kedia, Deepika; Guha Mazumder, D N; Chakravarty, Runu; Guha, Subhasish Kamal

2016-05-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and HIV co-infection has variable prevalence worldwide. In comparison to HBV mono-infection, the course of chronic HBV infection is accelerated in HIV/HBV co-infected patients. the present study was carried out to analyse the baseline characteristics (clinical, biochemical, serological and virological) of treatment naïve HIV/HBV co-infected and HIV mono-infected patients. Between July 2011 and January 2013, a total number of 1331 HIV-seropositive treatment naïve individuals, enrolled in the ART Centre of Calcutta School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, India, were screened for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). A total of 1253 HIV mono-infected and 78 HIV/HBV co-infected patients were characterized. The co-infected patients were evaluated for HBeAg and anti-HBe antibody by ELISA. HIV RNA was quantified for all co-infected patients. HBV DNA was detected and quantified by real time-PCR amplification followed by HBV genotype determination. HIV/HBV co-infected patients had proportionately more advanced HIV disease (WHO clinical stage 3 and 4) than HIV mono-infected individuals (37.1 vs. 19.9%). The co-infected patients had significantly higher serum bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase and ALT/platelet ratio index (APRI). CD4 count was non-significantly lower in co-infected patients. Majority (61.5%) were HBeAg positive with higher HIV RNA (P<0.05), HBV DNA (p<0.001) and APRI (p<0.05) compared to those who were HBeAg negative. HBV/D was the predominant genotype (73.2%) and D2 (43.7%) was the commonest subgenotype. HIV/HBV co-infected patients had significantly higher serum bilirubin, ALT, alkaline phosphatase and lower platelet count. HBeAg positive co-infected patients had higher HIV RNA and HBV DNA compared to HBeAg negative co-infected patients. Prior to initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) all patients should be screened for HBsAg to initiate appropriate ART regimen.

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

2017-08-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of eco-hydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965-1969) from -0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010-2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2014-05-01

In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

Combinatorial RNA Interference Therapy Prevents Selection of Pre-existing HBV Variants in Human Liver Chimeric Mice

PubMed Central

Shih, Yao-Ming; Sun, Cheng-Pu; Chou, Hui-Hsien; Wu, Tzu-Hui; Chen, Chun-Chi; Wu, Ping-Yi; Enya Chen, Yu-Chen; Bissig, Karl-Dimiter; Tao, Mi-Hua

2015-01-01

Selection of escape mutants with mutations within the target sequence could abolish the antiviral RNA interference activity. Here, we investigated the impact of a pre-existing shRNA-resistant HBV variant on the efficacy of shRNA therapy. We previously identified a highly potent shRNA, S1, which, when delivered by an adeno-associated viral vector, effectively inhibits HBV replication in HBV transgenic mice. We applied the “PICKY” software to systemically screen the HBV genome, then used hydrodynamic transfection and HBV transgenic mice to identify additional six highly potent shRNAs. Human liver chimeric mice were infected with a mixture of wild-type and T472C HBV, a S1-resistant HBV variant, and then treated with a single or combined shRNAs. The presence of T472C mutant compromised the therapeutic efficacy of S1 and resulted in replacement of serum wild-type HBV by T472C HBV. In contrast, combinatorial therapy using S1 and P28, one of six potent shRNAs, markedly reduced titers for both wild-type and T472C HBV. Interestingly, treatment with P28 alone led to the emergence of escape mutants with mutations in the P28 target region. Our results demonstrate that combinatorial RNAi therapy can minimize the escape of resistant viral mutants in chronic HBV patients. PMID:26482836

Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide—a synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krysanova, Valentina; Vetter, Tobias; Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strauch, Michael; Gelfan, Alexander; Kumar, Rohini; Aich, Valentin; Arheimer, Berit; Chamorro, Alejandro; van Griensven, Ann; Kundu, Dipangkar; Lobanova, Anastasia; Mishra, Vimal; Plötner, Stefan; Reinhardt, Julia; Seidou, Ousmane; Wang, Xiaoyan; Wortmann, Michel; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hattermann, Fred F.

2017-10-01

An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty were quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration and validation was done using WATCH climate data for the period 1971-2000. The results, evaluated with 14 criteria, are mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate change impacts were analyzed using projections from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways. Trends in the period 2070-2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q 10 and Q 90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: the Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q 10 in the MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for the Rhine, Ganges and Upper Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for the Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall average fractions of uncertainty for the annual mean flow projections in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins

HBVPathDB: a database of HBV infection-related molecular interaction network.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Bo, Xiao-Chen; Yang, Jing; Wang, Sheng-Qi

2005-03-21

To describe molecules or genes interaction between hepatitis B viruses (HBV) and host, for understanding how virus' and host's genes and molecules are networked to form a biological system and for perceiving mechanism of HBV infection. The knowledge of HBV infection-related reactions was organized into various kinds of pathways with carefully drawn graphs in HBVPathDB. Pathway information is stored with relational database management system (DBMS), which is currently the most efficient way to manage large amounts of data and query is implemented with powerful Structured Query Language (SQL). The search engine is written using Personal Home Page (PHP) with SQL embedded and web retrieval interface is developed for searching with Hypertext Markup Language (HTML). We present the first version of HBVPathDB, which is a HBV infection-related molecular interaction network database composed of 306 pathways with 1 050 molecules involved. With carefully drawn graphs, pathway information stored in HBVPathDB can be browsed in an intuitive way. We develop an easy-to-use interface for flexible accesses to the details of database. Convenient software is implemented to query and browse the pathway information of HBVPathDB. Four search page layout options-category search, gene search, description search, unitized search-are supported by the search engine of the database. The database is freely available at http://www.bio-inf.net/HBVPathDB/HBV/. The conventional perspective HBVPathDB have already contained a considerable amount of pathway information with HBV infection related, which is suitable for in-depth analysis of molecular interaction network of virus and host. HBVPathDB integrates pathway data-sets with convenient software for query, browsing, visualization, that provides users more opportunity to identify regulatory key molecules as potential drug targets and to explore the possible mechanism of HBV infection based on gene expression datasets.

Fibrosis assessment in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection

PubMed Central

Parikh, Pathik; Ryan, John D.

2017-01-01

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of liver morbidity and mortality worldwide. While a proportion of the 250 million individuals chronically infected with HBV will not come to significant harm or require therapy, many others risk developing complications of the end-stage liver disease such as decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), without intervention. Due to the complex natural history of HBV infection, patients require an expert assessment to interpret biochemistry, viral serology and appropriately stage the disease, and to initiate monitoring and/or therapy where indicated. The detection and quantification of liver fibrosis is a key factor for disease management and prognostication for an individual with HBV. The reliance on invasive liver biopsy to stage disease is diminishing with the advent of robust non-invasive blood- and imaging-based algorithms which can reliably stage disease in many cases. These tests are now incorporated into International guidelines for HBV management and relied upon daily to inform clinical judgement. Both blood- and imaging-based approaches have advantages over liver biopsy, including minimal risks, lower cost, better patient acceptance and speed of results, while disadvantages include lower diagnostic accuracy in intermediate disease stages and variability with co-existing hepatic inflammation or steatosis. This review outlines the methods of fibrosis assessment in chronic HBV infection and focuses on the most commonly used blood- and imaging-based non-invasive tests, reviewing their diagnostic performance and applicability to patient care. PMID:28251119

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Numerical modeling of the agricultural-hydrologic system in Punjab, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyblade, M.; Russo, T. A.; Zikatanov, L.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

The goal of food security for India's growing population is threatened by the decline in freshwater resources due to unsustainable water use for irrigation. The issue is acute in parts of Punjab, India, where small landholders produce a major quantity of India's food with declining groundwater resources. To further complicate this problem, other regions of the state are experiencing groundwater logging and salinization, and are reliant on canal systems for fresh water delivery. Due to the lack of water use records, groundwater consumption for this study is estimated with available data on crop yields, climate, and total canal water delivery. The hydrologic and agricultural systems are modeled using appropriate numerical methods and software. This is a state-wide hydrologic numerical model of Punjab that accounts for multiple aquifer layers, agricultural water demands, and interactions between the surface canal system and groundwater. To more accurately represent the drivers of agricultural production and therefore water use, we couple an economic crop optimization model with the hydrologic model. These tools will be used to assess and optimize crop choice scenarios based on farmer income, food production, and hydrologic system constraints. The results of these combined models can be used to further understand the hydrologic system response to government crop procurement policies and climate change, and to assess the effectiveness of possible water conservation solutions.

Adolescent booster with hepatitis B virus vaccines decreases HBV infection in high-risk adults.

PubMed

Wang, Yuting; Chen, Taoyang; Lu, Ling-Ling; Wang, Minjie; Wang, Dongmei; Yao, Hongyu; Fan, Chunsun; Qi, Jun; Zhang, Yawei; Qu, Chunfeng

2017-02-15

Neutralizing antibodies (anti-HBs) after immunization with hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccines against HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) wane after 10-15years. We analyzed the effect of an adolescent booster given to vaccination-protected children born to mothers with different HBsAg-carrying status against HBV infection in their mature adulthood. A total of 9793 individuals, who were HBsAg-negative at childhood (baseline) and donated blood samples, both during childhood and adulthood, from the vaccination group in "Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study", were enrolled. Among them 7414 received a one-dose, 10μg-recombinant HBV vaccine booster at 10-14years of age. At endpoint (23-28years of age), we determined the HBV serological markers and quantified their serum HBV-DNA in each of the chronic HBV-infected adults. Fifty-seven adults were identified as chronic HBV infection, indicated by HBsAg(+)&anti-HBc(+) for more than 6months. The individuals who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers (high-risk adults) had significantly increased risk of developing chronic HBV infections in adulthood compared with those who were born to HBsAg-negative mothers; the adjusted odds ratio (OR) was 12.56, 95%CI:7.14-22.08. The seronegative status of anti-HBs at 10-11years of age significantly increased the risk of HBV infections among the high-risk adults. When HBsAg(-)&anti-HBc(+) children who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers 70% of them remained as the status and 10% of them developed HBsAg(+)&anti-HBc(+). While when they were born to HBsAg-negative mothers 1.05% HBsAg(-)&anti-HBc(+) children developed HBsAg(+)&anti-HBc(+) and 24.74% of them remained as the status in 12-18years. One dose of adolescent booster showed significant protection on high-risk adults from chronic HBV infection; P for trend was 0.015. Maternal HBsAg-positive status was an independent risk factor for vaccination-protected children to develop HBV breakthrough infection in adulthood. Adolescent boosters might be

Parameterization guidelines and considerations for hydrologic models

Treesearch

 R. W. Malone; G. Yagow; C. Baffaut; M.W  Gitau; Z. Qi; Devendra Amatya; P.B.   Parajuli; J.V. Bonta; T.R.  Green

2015-01-01

 Imparting knowledge of the physical processes of a system to a model and determining a set of parameter values for a hydrologic or water quality model application (i.e., parameterization) are important and difficult tasks. An exponential...

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

1998-01-01

The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

Incidence and Residual Risk of HIV, HBV and HCV Infections Among Blood Donors in Tehran.

PubMed

Saber, Hamid Reza; Tabatabaee, Seyed Morteza; Abasian, Ali; Jamali, Mostafa; SalekMoghadam, Ebadollah; Hajibeigi, Bashir; Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Mirrezaie, Seyed Mohammad

2017-09-01

Estimation of residual risk is essential to monitor and improve blood safety. Our epidemiologic knowledge in the Iranian donor population regarding transfusion transmitted viral infections (TTIs), is confined to a few studies based on prevalence rate. There are no reports on residual risk of TTIs in Iran. In present survey, a software database of donor records of Tehran Blood Transfusion Center (TBTC) was used to estimate the incidence and residual risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections, by applying the incidence rate/window period (IR-WP) model. A total of 1,207,155 repeat donations was included in the analysis and represented a mean of 8.4 donations per donor over 6 years. The incidence amongst repeat donors was estimated by dividing the number of confirmed seroconverting donors by the total number of person-years at risk. The residual risk was calculated using the incidence/window period model. Incidence rate and residual risk for HBV, HCV and HIV infections were calculated for total (2005-2010) and two consecutive periods (2005-2007 and 2008-2010) of the study. According to the IR-WP model, overall residual risk for HIV and HCV in the total study period was 0.4 and 12.5 per million units, respectively and for HBV 4.57/100,000 donations. The incidence and residual risk of TTIs, calculated on TBTC's blood supply was low and comparable with developed countries for HIV infection but high for HCV and HBV infections. Blood safety may therefore be better managed by applying other techniques like nucleic acid amplification tests.

Novel pH-sensitive multifunctional envelope-type nanodevice for siRNA-based treatments for chronic HBV infection.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Naoki; Sato, Yusuke; Munakata, Tsubasa; Kakuni, Masakazu; Tateno, Chise; Sanada, Takahiro; Hirata, Yuichi; Murakami, Shuko; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Chayama, Kazuaki; Hatakeyama, Hiroto; Hyodo, Mamoru; Harashima, Hideyoshi; Kohara, Michinori

2016-03-01

Antiviral agents including entecavir (ETV) suppress the replication of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) genome in human hepatocytes, but they do not reduce the abundance of viral proteins. The present study focused on effectively reducing viral protein levels. We designed siRNAs (HBV-siRNA) that target consensus sequences in HBV genomes. To prevent the emergence of escaped mutant virus, we mixed three HBV-siRNAs (HBV-siRNAmix); the mixture was encapsulated in a novel pH-sensitive multifunctional envelope-type nanodevice (MEND), a hepatocyte-specific drug delivery system. Coagulation factor 7 siRNA was used to assess delivery and knockdown efficiencies of MEND/siRNA treatments in mice. The potency of MEND/HBV-siRNAmix was evaluated in primary human hepatocytes and in chimeric mice with humanized liver persistently infected with HBV. Effective knockdown of targets, efficient delivery of siRNA, and liver-specific delivery were each observed with MEND. MEND/HBV-siRNA caused efficient reduction of HBsAg and HBeAg in vitro and in vivo. However, ETV treatment did not efficiently reduce HBsAg or HBeAg when compared with a single MEND/HBV-siRNAmix treatment. Furthermore, the suppressive effects of a single dose of MEND/HBV-siRNAmix persisted for 14days in vitro and in vivo. We demonstrated that MEND/HBV-siRNA controlled HBV more efficiently than did ETV. Furthermore, the effect of a single dose of MEND/HBV-siRNA persisted for a long time. These results indicated that MEND/HBV-siRNA may be a promising novel HBV treatment that is more effective than reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Copyright © 2015 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walko, R.L.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Lammers, R.; Lee, T.J.; Ojima, D.; Pielke, R.A.; Taylor, C.; Tague, C.; Tremback, C.J.; Vidale, P.L.

2000-01-01

The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

Attaining insight into interactions between hydrologic model parameters and geophysical attributes for national-scale model parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.; Newman, A. J.; Wood, A.; Gutmann, E. D.

2017-12-01

Estimating spatially distributed model parameters is a grand challenge for large domain hydrologic modeling, especially in the context of hydrologic model applications such as streamflow forecasting. Multi-scale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) is a promising technique that accounts for the effects of fine-scale geophysical attributes (e.g., soil texture, land cover, topography, climate) on model parameters and nonlinear scaling effects on model parameters. MPR computes model parameters with transfer functions (TFs) that relate geophysical attributes to model parameters at the native input data resolution and then scales them using scaling functions to the spatial resolution of the model implementation. One of the biggest challenges in the use of MPR is identification of TFs for each model parameter: both functional forms and geophysical predictors. TFs used to estimate the parameters of hydrologic models typically rely on previous studies or were derived in an ad-hoc, heuristic manner, potentially not utilizing maximum information content contained in the geophysical attributes for optimal parameter identification. Thus, it is necessary to first uncover relationships among geophysical attributes, model parameters, and hydrologic processes (i.e., hydrologic signatures) to obtain insight into which and to what extent geophysical attributes are related to model parameters. We perform multivariate statistical analysis on a large-sample catchment data set including various geophysical attributes as well as constrained VIC model parameters at 671 unimpaired basins over the CONUS. We first calibrate VIC model at each catchment to obtain constrained parameter sets. Additionally, parameter sets sampled during the calibration process are used for sensitivity analysis using various hydrologic signatures as objectives to understand the relationships among geophysical attributes, parameters, and hydrologic processes.

Modular modeling system for building distributed hydrologic models with a user-friendly software package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wi, S.; Ray, P. A.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

A software package developed to facilitate building distributed hydrologic models in a modular modeling system is presented. The software package provides a user-friendly graphical user interface that eases its practical use in water resources-related research and practice. The modular modeling system organizes the options available to users when assembling models according to the stages of hydrological cycle, such as potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting, and snow/glacier melting processes. The software is intended to be a comprehensive tool that simplifies the task of developing, calibrating, validating, and using hydrologic models through the inclusion of intelligent automation to minimize user effort, and reduce opportunities for error. Processes so far automated include the definition of system boundaries (i.e., watershed delineation), climate and geographical input generation, and parameter calibration. Built-in post-processing toolkits greatly improve the functionality of the software as a decision support tool for water resources system management and planning. Example post-processing toolkits enable streamflow simulation at ungauged sites with predefined model parameters, and perform climate change risk assessment by means of the decision scaling approach. The software is validated through application to watersheds representing a variety of hydrologic regimes.

Role of peripheral blood mononuclear cell transportation from mother to baby in HBV intrauterine infection.

PubMed

Shao, Qingliang; Zhao, Xiaxia; Yao Li, M D

2013-12-01

We aimed to investigate the role of peripheral blood mononuclear cell transportation from mother to baby in hepatitis B virus (HBV) intrauterine infection. Thirty HBsAg-positive pregnant women in the second trimester and their aborted fetuses were included in this study. Enzyme-linked-immunosorbent-assay was utilized to detect HBsAg in the peripheral blood of pregnant women and the femoral vein blood of their aborted fetuses. HBV-DNA in serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) and GSTM1 alleles of pregnant women and their aborted fetuses were detected by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and seminested PCR, respectively. We also examined the location of placenta HBsAg and HBcAb using immunohistochemical staining. The expression of placenta HBV-DNA was detected by in situ hybridization. For the 30 aborted fetuses, the HBV intrauterine infection rate was 43.33%. The HBV-positive rates of HBsAg in peripheral blood, serum, and PBMC were 10% (3/30), 23.33% (7/30), and 33.33% (10/30), respectively. Maternal-fetal PBMC transport was significantly positively correlated with fetal PBMC HBV-DNA (P = 0.004). Meanwhile, the rates of HBV infection gradually decreased from the maternal side to the fetus side of placenta (decidual cells > trophoblastic cells > villous mesenchymal cells > villous capillary endothelial cells). However, no significant correlation between placenta HBV infection and HBV intrauterine infection was observed (P = 0.410). HBV intrauterine infection was primarily due to peripheral blood mononuclear cell maternal-fetal transportation in the second trimester in pregnant women.

Prevalence of HBV DNA among 20 million seronegative blood donations in China from 2010 to 2015.

PubMed

Liu, Chao; Chang, Le; Ji, Huimin; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Kuo; Lin, Guigao; Zhang, Rui; Li, Jinming; Wang, Lunan

2016-11-11

The prevalence of HBV DNA among seronegative blood donations in China has not been studied extensively on a nationwide scale. The aim of this study was to analyse the prevalence, trend, distributions, and serological characteristics of HBV DNA positive/seronegative blood donations. We collected HBV test data from all blood banks of China from 2010 to 2015 and performed supplemental serological tests and quantitative detection of HBV DNA of the seronegative/HBV DNA positive blood donations. We analysed the prevalence of HBV DNA among seronegative blood donations screened by varying nucleotide acid test (NAT) reagents. The analysis results showed that a total of 20,084,187 seronegative blood donations were screened by NAT from 2010 to 2015 in China. The average frequency of HBV DNA among seronegative blood donations was 1/1482, but there has been a steady increase from 1/1861 in 2011 to 1/1269 in 2015. The geographical distribution of seronegative and HBV DNA positive blood donations was roughly consistent with that of HBsAg. The most common serological pattern was HBeAb and HBcAb positive. In conclusion, our study offeres fundamental data of seronegative and HBV DNA positive blood donations throughout China.

Prevalence of HBV DNA among 20 million seronegative blood donations in China from 2010 to 2015

PubMed Central

Liu, Chao; Chang, Le; Ji, Huimin; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Kuo; Lin, Guigao; Zhang, Rui; Li, Jinming; Wang, Lunan

2016-01-01

The prevalence of HBV DNA among seronegative blood donations in China has not been studied extensively on a nationwide scale. The aim of this study was to analyse the prevalence, trend, distributions, and serological characteristics of HBV DNA positive/seronegative blood donations. We collected HBV test data from all blood banks of China from 2010 to 2015 and performed supplemental serological tests and quantitative detection of HBV DNA of the seronegative/HBV DNA positive blood donations. We analysed the prevalence of HBV DNA among seronegative blood donations screened by varying nucleotide acid test (NAT) reagents. The analysis results showed that a total of 20,084,187 seronegative blood donations were screened by NAT from 2010 to 2015 in China. The average frequency of HBV DNA among seronegative blood donations was 1/1482, but there has been a steady increase from 1/1861 in 2011 to 1/1269 in 2015. The geographical distribution of seronegative and HBV DNA positive blood donations was roughly consistent with that of HBsAg. The most common serological pattern was HBeAb and HBcAb positive. In conclusion, our study offeres fundamental data of seronegative and HBV DNA positive blood donations throughout China. PMID:27833112

On the Use of Models in Hydrology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Marsily, G.

1994-01-01

This discussion article addresses the nature of models used in hydrology. It proposes a minimalist classification of models into two categories: models built on data from observations of the processes involved, and those for which there are no observation data on any of these processes, at the scale of interest. (LZ)

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

A coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2018-02-01

A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall-evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

HBV DNA genome co-transfection procedure for the evaluation of relative fitness

PubMed Central

Sevic, Ina; Gonzalez Lopez Ledesma, Maria Mora; Flichman, Diego Martin

2017-01-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has a high mutation rate and exists as a mixture of genetically different but closely related variants. We present a HBV DNA co-transfection fitness assay and use it to evaluate the relative fitness of different HBV variants in two scenarios: seroconversion process and occupation of an ecological niche. In the seroconversion experiment, subgenotype D1 (sgtD1) deletion (1763–1770) had significantly lower fitness comparing with both sgtD1 wild type and sgtD1mut G1896A, while, in the case of occupation of ecological niche experiment, the results showed the same relative fitness between all of the genotype combinations, except F1b-F4. In this case sgtF1b clearly overgrow sgtF4, which is in accordance with the observation that F1b is the most prevalent in the new infections in Argentina. In summary, we present a method aimed to evaluate HBV viral fitness which improve the analysis of the relative frequency of viral variants during the HBV infection process. PMID:28472081

Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

2013-12-01

The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

Brief Report: HIV/HBV Coinfection is a Significant Risk Factor for Liver Fibrosis in Tanzanian HIV-Infected Adults.

PubMed

Hawkins, Claudia; Christian, Beatrice; Fabian, Emanuel; Macha, Irene; Gawile, Cecilia; Mpangala, Shida; Ulenga, Nzovu; Thio, Chloe L; Ammerman, Lauren R; Mugusi, Ferdinand; Fawzi, Wafaie; Green, Richard; Murphy, Robert

2017-11-01

In sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of liver disease associated with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and HIV is unknown. We characterized liver disease using aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and FIB-4 in patients with HIV, HBV, and HIV/HBV coinfection in Tanzania. Using a cross-sectional design, we compared the prevalence of liver fibrosis in treatment-naive HIV monoinfected, HBV monoinfected, and HIV/HBV-coinfected adults enrolled at Management and Development for Health (MDH)-supported HIV treatment clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Risk factors associated with significant fibrosis (APRI >0.5 and FIB-4 >1.45) were examined. Two hundred sixty-seven HIV-infected, 165 HBV-infected, and 63 HIV/HBV-coinfected patients were analyzed [44% men, median age 37 (interquartile range 14), body mass index 23 (7)]. APRI and FIB-4 were strongly correlated (r = 0.78, P < 0.001, R = 0.61). Overall median APRI scores were low {HIV/HBV [0.36 (interquartile range 0.4)], HIV [0.23 (0.17)], HBV [0.29 (0.15)] (P < 0.01)}. In multivariate analyses, HIV/HBV coinfection was associated with APRI >0.5 [HIV/HBV vs. HIV: odds ratio (OR) 3.78 (95% confidence interval: 1.91 to 7.50)], [HIV/HBV vs. HBV: OR 2.61 (1.26 to 5.44)]. HIV RNA per 1 log10 copies/mL increase [OR 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 2.26)] and HBV DNA per 1 log10 copies/mL increase [OR 1.36 (1.15, 1.62)] were independently associated with APRI >0.5 in HIV-infected and HBV-infected patients, respectively. HIV/HBV coinfection is an important risk factor for significant fibrosis. Higher levels of circulating HIV and HBV virus may play a direct role in liver fibrogenesis. Prompt diagnosis and aggressive monitoring of liver disease in HIV/HBV coinfection is warranted.

Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

2005-12-01

Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

The HBV DNA cutoff value for discriminating patients with HBeAgnegative chronic hepatitis B from inactive carriers.

PubMed

Kim, Eun Sun; Seo, Yeon Seok; Keum, Bora; Kim, Ji Hoon; A, Hyonggin; Yim, Hyung Joon; Kim, Yong Sik; Jeen, Yoon Tae; Lee, Hong Sik; Chun, Hoon Jai; Um, Soon Ho; Duck Kim, Chang; Ryu, Ho Sang

2011-05-01

Patients with HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has a significantly different prognosis than inactive carriers; there is however, no reliable strategy for accurately differentiating these two disease conditions. To determine a strategy for discriminating patients with HBeAg-negative CHB from inactive carriers. Consecutive inactive carriers (i.e. HBeAg-negativity, anti-HBe-positivity, normal ALT levels, and HBV DNA < 2000 IU/mL) were enrolled. HBV reactivation was defined as the elevation of the HBV DNA level to ≥ 2000 IU/mL. Patients were classified into true inactive carriers when their HBV DNA levels remained at < 2000 IU/mL or false inactive carriers when their HBV DNA levels increased to ≥ 2000 IU/mL during the first year. The Mean ± SD age of 208 inactive carriers (140 males) was 47.7 ± 12.6 years. The Mean ± SD serum ALT and HBV DNA levels were 22.8 ± 8.6 IU/L and 360 ± 482 IU/mL, respectively. HBV reactivation developed in 41 (19.7%) patients during the first year. Baseline HBV DNA and ALT levels differed significantly between true inactive and false inactive carriers. The AUROCs of the baseline ALT and HBV DNA levels for predicting a false inactive carrier were 0.609 and 0.831, respectively. HBV reactivation developed more often in patients with a baseline HBV DNA level of ≥ 200 IU/mL than in those with a baseline HBV DNA level of < 200 IU/mL during a Mean ± SD follow-up of 622 ± 199 days. The HBV DNA level was useful for discriminating patients with HBeAg-negative CHB from true inactive carriers. The follow-up strategies applied to inactive carriers need to vary with their HBV DNA levels.

Improved hydrological-model design by integrating nutrient and water flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arheimer, B.; Lindstrom, G.

2013-12-01

The potential of integrating hydrologic and nutrient concentration data to better understand patterns of catchment response and to better design hydrological modeling was explored using a national multi-basin model system for Sweden, called ';S-HYPE'. The model system covers more than 450 000 km2 and produce daily values of nutrient concentration and water discharge in 37 000 catchments from 1961 and onwards. It is based on the processed-based and semi-distributed HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) code. The model is used operationally for assessments of water status or climate change impacts and for forecasts by the national warning service of floods, droughts and fire. The first model was launched in 2008, but S-HYPE is continuously improved and released in new versions every second year. Observations are available in 400 sites for daily water discharge and some 900 sites for monthly grab samples of nutrient concentrations. The latest version (2012) has an average NSE for water discharge of 0.7 and an average relative error of 5%, including both regulated and unregulated rivers with catchments from ten to several thousands of km2 and various landuse. The daily relative errors of nutrient concentrations are on average 20% for total Nitrogen and 35% for total Phosphorus. This presentation will give practical examples of how the nutrient data has been used to trace errors or inadequate parameter values in the hydrological model. Since 2008 several parts of the model structure has been reconsidered both in the source code, parameter values and input data of catchment characteristics. In this process water quality has been guiding much of the overall model design of catchment hydrological functions and routing along the river network. The model structure has thus been developed iteratively when evaluating results and checking time-series. Examples of water quality driven improvements will be given for estimation of vertical flow paths, such as

Treatments of Precipitation Inputs to Hydrologic Models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrological models are used to assess many water resources problems from agricultural use and water quality to engineering issues. The success of these models are dependent on correct parameterization; the most sensitive being the rainfall input time series. These records can come from land-based ...

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological modeling in a tropical area using different algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Fassnacht, Steven; Linh, Nguyen Hoang Khanh

2018-01-01

Hydrological modeling outputs are subject to uncertainty resulting from different sources of errors (e.g., error in input data, model structure, and model parameters), making quantification of uncertainty in hydrological modeling imperative and meant to improve reliability of modeling results. The uncertainty analysis must solve difficulties in calibration of hydrological models, which further increase in areas with data scarcity. The purpose of this study is to apply four uncertainty analysis algorithms to a semi-distributed hydrological model, quantifying different source of uncertainties (especially parameter uncertainty) and evaluate their performance. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was implemented for the watershed in the center of Vietnam. The sensitivity of parameters was analyzed, and the model was calibrated. The uncertainty analysis for the hydrological model was conducted based on four algorithms: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI), Parameter Solution method (ParaSol) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The performance of the algorithms was compared using P-factor and Rfactor, coefficient of determination (R 2), the Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS). The results showed the high performance of SUFI and PSO with P-factor>0.83, R-factor <0.56 and R 2>0.91, NSE>0.89, and 0.18model use for policy or management decisions.

Estimating parameter values of a socio-hydrological flood model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holkje Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Kreibich, Heidi; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno; Blöschl, Günter

2018-06-01

Socio-hydrological modelling studies that have been published so far show that dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent the phenomena and the feedbacks in human-flood systems. So far these models are mostly generic and have not been developed and calibrated to represent specific case studies. We believe that applying and calibrating these type of models to real world case studies can help us to further develop our understanding about the phenomena that occur in these systems. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the parameter values of a socio-hydrological model and we test it by applying it to an artificial case study. We postulate a model that describes the feedbacks between floods, awareness and preparedness. After simulating hypothetical time series with a given combination of parameters, we sample few data points for our variables and try to estimate the parameters given these data points using Bayesian Inference. The results show that, if we are able to collect data for our case study, we would, in theory, be able to estimate the parameter values for our socio-hydrological flood model.

Data Services in Support of High Performance Computing-Based Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Dash, P. K.; Gichamo, T.; Yildirim, A. A.; Jones, N.

2014-12-01

We have developed web-based data services to support the application of hydrologic models on High Performance Computing (HPC) systems. The purposes of these services are to provide hydrologic researchers, modelers, water managers, and users access to HPC resources without requiring them to become HPC experts and understanding the intrinsic complexities of the data services, so as to reduce the amount of time and effort spent in finding and organizing the data required to execute hydrologic models and data preprocessing tools on HPC systems. These services address some of the data challenges faced by hydrologic models that strive to take advantage of HPC. Needed data is often not in the form needed by such models, requiring researchers to spend time and effort on data preparation and preprocessing that inhibits or limits the application of these models. Another limitation is the difficult to use batch job control and queuing systems used by HPC systems. We have developed a REST-based gateway application programming interface (API) for authenticated access to HPC systems that abstracts away many of the details that are barriers to HPC use and enhances accessibility from desktop programming and scripting languages such as Python and R. We have used this gateway API to establish software services that support the delineation of watersheds to define a modeling domain, then extract terrain and land use information to automatically configure the inputs required for hydrologic models. These services support the Terrain Analysis Using Digital Elevation Model (TauDEM) tools for watershed delineation and generation of hydrology-based terrain information such as wetness index and stream networks. These services also support the derivation of inputs for the Utah Energy Balance snowmelt model used to address questions such as how climate, land cover and land use change may affect snowmelt inputs to runoff generation. To enhance access to the time varying climate data used to

High prevalence of human parvovirus 4 infection in HBV and HCV infected individuals in shanghai.

PubMed

Yu, Xuelian; Zhang, Jing; Hong, Liang; Wang, Jiayu; Yuan, Zhengan; Zhang, Xi; Ghildyal, Reena

2012-01-01

Human parvovirus 4 (PARV4) has been detected in blood and diverse tissues samples from HIV/AIDS patients who are injecting drug users. Although B19 virus, the best characterized human parvovirus, has been shown to co-infect patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus (HBV, HCV) infection, the association of PARV4 with HBV or HCV infections is still unknown.The aim of this study was to characterise the association of viruses belonging to PARV4 genotype 1 and 2 with chronic HBV and HCV infection in Shanghai.Serum samples of healthy controls, HCV infected subjects and HBV infected subjects were retrieved from Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention (SCDC) Sample Bank. Parvovirus-specific nested-PCR was performed and results confirmed by sequencing. Sequences were compared with reference sequences obtained from Genbank to derive phylogeny trees.The frequency of parvovirus molecular detection was 16-22%, 33% and 41% in healthy controls, HCV infected and HBV infected subjects respectively, with PARV4 being the only parvovirus detected. HCV infected and HBV infected subjects had a significantly higher PARV4 prevalence than the healthy population. No statistical difference was found in PARV4 prevalence between HBV or HCV infected subjects. PARV4 sequence divergence within study groups was similar in healthy subjects, HBV or HCV infected subjects.Our data clearly demonstrate that PARV4 infection is strongly associated with HCV and HBV infection in Shanghai but may not cause increased disease severity.

Spatial calibration and temporal validation of flow for regional scale hydrologic modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validat...

TGF-β Suppression of HBV RNA through AID-Dependent Recruitment of an RNA Exosome Complex

PubMed Central

Kitamura, Kouichi; Wang, Zhe; Chowdhury, Sajeda; Monjurul, Ahasan Md; Wakae, Kousho; Koura, Miki; Shimadu, Miyuki; Kinoshita, Kazuo; Muramatsu, Masamichi

2015-01-01

Transforming growth factor (TGF)-β inhibits hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication although the intracellular effectors involved are not determined. Here, we report that reduction of HBV transcripts by TGF-β is dependent on AID expression, which significantly decreases both HBV transcripts and viral DNA, resulting in inhibition of viral replication. Immunoprecipitation reveals that AID physically associates with viral P protein that binds to specific virus RNA sequence called epsilon. AID also binds to an RNA degradation complex (RNA exosome proteins), indicating that AID, RNA exosome, and P protein form an RNP complex. Suppression of HBV transcripts by TGF-β was abrogated by depletion of either AID or RNA exosome components, suggesting that AID and the RNA exosome involve in TGF-β mediated suppression of HBV RNA. Moreover, AID-mediated HBV reduction does not occur when P protein is disrupted or when viral transcription is inhibited. These results suggest that induced expression of AID by TGF-β causes recruitment of the RNA exosome to viral RNP complex and the RNA exosome degrades HBV RNA in a transcription-coupled manner. PMID:25836330

Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

2014-12-01

The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

Upscaling from research watersheds: an essential stage of trustworthy general-purpose hydrologic model building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, J. P.; Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

2011-12-01

Highly instrumented research watersheds provide excellent opportunities for investigating hydrologic processes. A danger, however, is that the processes observed at a particular research watershed are too specific to the watershed and not representative even of the larger scale watershed that contains that particular research watershed. Thus, models developed based on those partial observations may not be suitable for general hydrologic use. Therefore demonstrating the upscaling of hydrologic process from research watersheds to larger watersheds is essential to validate concepts and test model structure. The Hydrograph model has been developed as a general-purpose process-based hydrologic distributed system. In its applications and further development we evaluate the scaling of model concepts and parameters in a wide range of hydrologic landscapes. All models, either lumped or distributed, are based on a discretization concept. It is common practice that watersheds are discretized into so called hydrologic units or hydrologic landscapes possessing assumed homogeneous hydrologic functioning. If a model structure is fixed, the difference in hydrologic functioning (difference in hydrologic landscapes) should be reflected by a specific set of model parameters. Research watersheds provide the possibility for reasonable detailed combining of processes into some typical hydrologic concept such as hydrologic units, hydrologic forms, and runoff formation complexes in the Hydrograph model. And here by upscaling we imply not the upscaling of a single process but upscaling of such unified hydrologic functioning. The simulation of runoff processes for the Dry Creek research watershed, Idaho, USA (27 km2) was undertaken using the Hydrograph model. The information on the watershed was provided by Boise State University and included a GIS database of watershed characteristics and a detailed hydrometeorological observational dataset. The model provided good simulation results in

Immune-escape mutations and stop-codons in HBsAg develop in a large proportion of patients with chronic HBV infection exposed to anti-HBV drugs in Europe.

PubMed

Colagrossi, Luna; Hermans, Lucas E; Salpini, Romina; Di Carlo, Domenico; Pas, Suzan D; Alvarez, Marta; Ben-Ari, Ziv; Boland, Greet; Bruzzone, Bianca; Coppola, Nicola; Seguin-Devaux, Carole; Dyda, Tomasz; Garcia, Federico; Kaiser, Rolf; Köse, Sukran; Krarup, Henrik; Lazarevic, Ivana; Lunar, Maja M; Maylin, Sarah; Micheli, Valeria; Mor, Orna; Paraschiv, Simona; Paraskevis, Dimitros; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elisabeth; Simon, François; Stanojevic, Maja; Stene-Johansen, Kathrine; Tihic, Nijaz; Trimoulet, Pascale; Verheyen, Jens; Vince, Adriana; Lepej, Snjezana Zidovec; Weis, Nina; Yalcinkaya, Tülay; Boucher, Charles A B; Wensing, Annemarie M J; Perno, Carlo F; Svicher, Valentina

2018-06-01

HBsAg immune-escape mutations can favor HBV-transmission also in vaccinated individuals, promote immunosuppression-driven HBV-reactivation, and increase fitness of drug-resistant strains. Stop-codons can enhance HBV oncogenic-properties. Furthermore, as a consequence of the overlapping structure of HBV genome, some immune-escape mutations or stop-codons in HBsAg can derive from drug-resistance mutations in RT. This study is aimed at gaining insight in prevalence and characteristics of immune-associated escape mutations, and stop-codons in HBsAg in chronically HBV-infected patients experiencing nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) in Europe. This study analyzed 828 chronically HBV-infected European patients exposed to ≥ 1 NA, with detectable HBV-DNA and with an available HBsAg-sequence. The immune-associated escape mutations and the NA-induced immune-escape mutations sI195M, sI196S, and sE164D (resulting from drug-resistance mutation rtM204 V, rtM204I, and rtV173L) were retrieved from literature and examined. Mutations were defined as an aminoacid substitution with respect to a genotype A or D reference sequence. At least one immune-associated escape mutation was detected in 22.1% of patients with rising temporal-trend. By multivariable-analysis, genotype-D correlated with higher selection of ≥ 1 immune-associated escape mutation (OR[95%CI]:2.20[1.32-3.67], P = 0.002). In genotype-D, the presence of ≥ 1 immune-associated escape mutations was significantly higher in drug-exposed patients with drug-resistant strains than with wild-type virus (29.5% vs 20.3% P = 0.012). Result confirmed by analysing drug-naïve patients (29.5% vs 21.2%, P = 0.032). Strong correlation was observed between sP120T and rtM204I/V (P < 0.001), and their co-presence determined an increased HBV-DNA. At least one NA-induced immune-escape mutation occurred in 28.6% of patients, and their selection correlated with genotype-A (OR[95%CI]:2.03[1.32-3.10],P = 0.001). Finally

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

PubMed

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Modeling winter hydrological processes under differing climatic conditions: Modifying WEPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dun, Shuhui

Water erosion is a serious and continuous environmental problem worldwide. In cold regions, soil freeze and thaw has great impacts on infiltration and erosion. Rain or snowmelt on a thawing soil can cause severe water erosion. Of equal importance is snow accumulation and snowmelt, which can be the predominant hydrological process in areas of mid- to high latitudes and forested watersheds. Modelers must properly simulate winter processes to adequately represent the overall hydrological outcome and sediment and chemical transport in these areas. Modeling winter hydrology is presently lacking in water erosion models. Most of these models are based on the functional Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) or its revised forms, e.g., Revised USLE (RUSLE). In RUSLE a seasonally variable soil erodibility factor (K) was used to account for the effects of frozen and thawing soil. Yet the use of this factor requires observation data for calibration, and such a simplified approach cannot represent the complicated transient freeze-thaw processes and their impacts on surface runoff and erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model, a physically-based erosion prediction software developed by the USDA-ARS, has seen numerous applications within and outside the US. WEPP simulates winter processes, including snow accumulation, snowmelt, and soil freeze-thaw, using an approach based on mass and energy conservation. However, previous studies showed the inadequacy of the winter routines in the WEPP model. Therefore, the objectives of this study were: (1) To adapt a modeling approach for winter hydrology based on mass and energy conservation, and to implement this approach into a physically-oriented hydrological model, such as WEPP; and (2) To assess this modeling approach through case applications to different geographic conditions. A new winter routine was developed and its performance was evaluated by incorporating it into WEPP (v2008.9) and then applying WEPP to

Hepatitis B virus sequencing and liver fibrosis evaluation in HIV/HBV co-infected Nigerians.

PubMed

Grant, Jennifer; Agbaji, Oche; Kramvis, Anna; Yousif, Mukhlid; Auwal, Mu'azu; Penugonda, Sudhir; Ugoagwu, Placid; Murphy, Robert; Hawkins, Claudia

2017-06-01

Molecular characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV), such as genotype and genomic mutations, may contribute to liver-related morbidity and mortality. The association of these characteristics with liver fibrosis severity in sub-Saharan Africa is uncertain. We aimed to characterise molecular HBV features in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HBV co-infected Nigerians and evaluate associations between these characteristics and liver fibrosis severity before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. HIV/HBV co-infected Nigerians underwent liver fibrosis estimation by transient elastography (TE) prior to and 36 months after ART initiation. Basal core promoter/precore (BCP/PC) and preS1/preS2/S regions of HBV were sequenced from baseline plasma samples. We evaluated associations between HBV mutations and liver fibrosis severity by univariate and multivariable regression. At baseline, 94 patients underwent TE with median liver stiffness of 6.4 (IQR 4.7-8.7) kPa. Patients were predominantly infected with HBV genotype E (45/46) and HBe-antigen negative (75/94, 79.8%). We identified BCP A1762T/G1764A in 15/35 (43%), PC G1896A in 20/35 (57%), 'a' determinant mutations in 12/45 (26.7%) and preS2 deletions in 6/16 (37.5%). PreS2 mutations were associated with advanced fibrosis in multivariable analysis. At follow-up, median liver stiffness was 5.2 (IQR 4.1-6.6) kPa. No HBV molecular characteristics were associated with lack of fibrosis regression, although HIV virologic control, body mass index (BMI) and baseline CD4+ T-cell count were associated with a decline in fibrosis stage. Frequent BCP/PC and preS1/preS2/S mutations were found in ART-naïve HIV/HBV co-infected Nigerians. Median liver stiffness declined after initiation of ART, regardless of pre-ART HBV mutational pattern or virologic characteristics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of Abbott and Da-an real-time PCR for quantitating serum HBV DNA.

PubMed

Qiu, Ning; Li, Rui; Yu, Jian-Guo; Yang, Wen; Zhang, Wei; An, Yong; Li, Tong; Liu, Xue-En; Zhuang, Hui

2014-09-07

To compare the performance of the Da-an real-time hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA assay and Abbott RealTime HBV assay. HBV DNA standards as well as a total of 180 clinical serum samples from patients with chronic hepatitis B were measured using the Abbott and Da-an real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Correlation and Bland-Altman plot analysis was used to compare the performance of the Abbott and Da-an assays. The HBV DNA levels were logarithmically transformed for analysis. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS for Windows version 18.0. The correlation between the two assays was analyzed by Pearson's correlation and linear regression. The Bland-Altman plots were used for the analysis of agreement between the two assays. A P value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The HBV DNA values measured by the Abbott or Da-an assay were significantly correlated with the expected values of HBV DNA standards (r = 0.999, for Abbott; r = 0.987, for Da-an, P < 0.001). A Bland-Altman plot showed good agreement between these two assays in detecting HBV DNA standards. Among the 180 clinical serum samples, 126 were quantifiable by both assays. Fifty-two samples were detectable by the Abbott assay but below the detection limit of the Da-an assay. Moreover, HBV DNA levels measured by the Abbott assay were significantly higher than those of the Da-an assay (6.23 ± 1.76 log IU/mL vs 5.46 ± 1.55 log IU/mL, P < 0.001). A positive correlation was observed between HBV DNA concentrations determined by the two assays in 126 paired samples (r = 0.648, P < 0.001). One hundred and fifteen of 126 (91.3%) specimens tested with both assays were within mean difference ± 1.96 SD of HBV DNA levels. The Da-an assay presented lower sensitivity and a narrower linear range as compared to the Abbott assay, suggesting the need to be improved.

Evaluation of vaccination efficiency against HBV among Syrian multitransfused patients.

PubMed

Yazji, Wadad; Habal, Wafaa; Menem, Fawza

2018-03-05

This cross-sectional study estimates HBV prevalence and evaluates vaccination efficiency among multitransfused patients. 159 patients with various hemoglobinopathies were tested for HBsAg, anti-HBs, and anti-HBc, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The serological results were then compared with the relevant documentation in medical records. Seropositivity of HBV was detected in 1/8 of recruited patients. Serological immunity was found in only half of patients, while the other half were either infected or non-immune. The vaccination against HBV appeared inefficient in almost half of vaccinated patients and was not documented in the medical records of 1/6 of patients. Thus, multitransfused patients are at risk of acquiring hepatitis B infection. Applying prophylactic vaccination, documenting vaccine doses, and monitoring immune response are highly recommended.

Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

Hydrologic Model Selection using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, L.; Sharma, A.; Nott, D.

2002-12-01

Estimation of parameter uncertainty (and in turn model uncertainty) allows assessment of the risk in likely applications of hydrological models. Bayesian statistical inference provides an ideal means of assessing parameter uncertainty whereby prior knowledge about the parameter is combined with information from the available data to produce a probability distribution (the posterior distribution) that describes uncertainty about the parameter and serves as a basis for selecting appropriate values for use in modelling applications. Widespread use of Bayesian techniques in hydrology has been hindered by difficulties in summarizing and exploring the posterior distribution. These difficulties have been largely overcome by recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that involve random sampling of the posterior distribution. This study presents an adaptive MCMC sampling algorithm which has characteristics that are well suited to model parameters with a high degree of correlation and interdependence, as is often evident in hydrological models. The MCMC sampling technique is used to compare six alternative configurations of a commonly used conceptual rainfall-runoff model, the Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM), using 11 years of daily rainfall runoff data from the Bass river catchment in Australia. The alternative configurations considered fall into two classes - those that consider model errors to be independent of prior values, and those that model the errors as an autoregressive process. Each such class consists of three formulations that represent increasing levels of complexity (and parameterisation) of the original model structure. The results from this study point both to the importance of using Bayesian approaches in evaluating model performance, as well as the simplicity of the MCMC sampling framework that has the ability to bring such approaches within the reach of the applied hydrological community.

Assessing the hydropower potential of ungauged watersheds in Iceland using hydrological modeling and satellite retrieved snow cover images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David

2015-04-01

About 80% of the domestic energy production in Iceland comes from renewable energies. Hydropower accounts for about 20% this production, representing about 75% of the total electricity production in Iceland. In 2008 total electricity production from hydropower was about 12.5 TWh a-1, making Iceland a worldwide leader in hydropower production per capita. Furthermore, the total potential of hydroelectricity in Iceland is estimated to amount up to 220 TWh a-1. In this regard, hydrological modelling is an essential tool to adapt a sustainable management of water resources and estimate the potential of possible new sites for hydropower production. We used the conceptual lumped Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model (HBV) to estimate the potential of hydropower production in two remote areas in north-eastern Iceland (Leirdalshraun, a 274 km2 area above 595 m asl and Hafralónsá, a 946 km2 area above 235 m asl). The model parameters were determined by calibrating the model with discharge data from gauged sub catchments. Satellite snow cover images were used to constrain melt parameters of the model and assure adequate modelling of snow melt in the ungauged areas. This was particularly valuable to adequately estimate the contribution of snow melt, rainfall runoff and groundwater intrusion from glaciers outside the topographic boundaries of the selected watersheds. Runoff from the entire area potentially used for hydropower exploitation was estimated using the parameter sets of the gauged sub-catchments. Additionally, snow melt from the ungauged areas was validated with satellite based snow cover images, revealing a robust simulation of snow melt in the entire area. Based on the hydrological modelling the total amount of snow melt and rainfall runoff available in Leirdalshraun and Hafralónsá amounts up to 700 M m3 a-1 and 1000 M m3 a-1, respectively. These results reveal that the total hydropower potential of the two sites amounts up to 1.2 TWh a-1

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of themore » Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.« less

Potential for Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engman, Edwin T.

1997-01-01

Many hydrologic processes display a unique signature that is detectable with microwave remote sensing. These signatures are in the form of the spatial and temporal distributions of surface soil moisture and portray the spatial heterogeneity of hydrologic processes and properties that one encounters in drainage basins. The hydrologic processes that may be detected include ground water recharge and discharge zones, storm runoff contributing areas, regions of potential and less than potential ET, and information about the hydrologic properties of soils and heterogeneity of hydrologic parameters. Microwave remote sensing has the potential to detect these signatures within a basin in the form of volumetric soil moisture measurements in the top few cm. These signatures should provide information on how and where to apply soil physical parameters in distributed and lumped parameter models and how to subdivide drainage basins into hydrologically similar sub-basins.

The Impact of Microwave-Derived Surface Soil Moisture on Watershed Hydrological Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

ONeill, P. E.; Hsu, A. Y.; Jackson, T. J.; Wood, E. F.; Zion, M.

1997-01-01

The usefulness of incorporating microwave-derived soil moisture information in a semi-distributed hydrological model was demonstrated for the Washita '92 experiment in the Little Washita River watershed in Oklahoma. Initializing the hydrological model with surface soil moisture fields from the ESTAR airborne L-band microwave radiometer on a single wet day at the start of the study period produced more accurate model predictions of soil moisture than a standard hydrological initialization with streamflow data over an eight-day soil moisture drydown.

Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis of an Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franceschini, Samuela; Marani, Marco

2010-05-01

Model predictions derived based on rainfall measurements and hydrological model results are often limited by the systematic error of measuring instruments, by the intrinsic variability of the natural processes and by the uncertainty of the mathematical representation. We propose a means to identify such sources of uncertainty and to quantify their effects based on point-estimate approaches, as a valid alternative to cumbersome Montecarlo methods. We present uncertainty analyses on the hydrologic response to selected meteorological events, in the mountain streamflow-generating portion of the Brenta basin at Bassano del Grappa, Italy. The Brenta river catchment has a relatively uniform morphology and quite a heterogeneous rainfall-pattern. In the present work, we evaluate two sources of uncertainty: data uncertainty (the uncertainty due to data handling and analysis) and model uncertainty (the uncertainty related to the formulation of the model). We thus evaluate the effects of the measurement error of tipping-bucket rain gauges, the uncertainty in estimating spatially-distributed rainfall through block kriging, and the uncertainty associated with estimated model parameters. To this end, we coupled a deterministic model based on the geomorphological theory of the hydrologic response to probabilistic methods. In particular we compare the results of Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) to the results obtained, in the same conditions, using Li's Point Estimate Method (LiM). The LiM is a probabilistic technique that approximates the continuous probability distribution function of the considered stochastic variables by means of discrete points and associated weights. This allows to satisfactorily reproduce results with only few evaluations of the model function. The comparison between the LiM and MCS results highlights the pros and cons of using an approximating method. LiM is less computationally demanding than MCS, but has limited applicability especially when the model

Eco-hydrological Modeling in the Framework of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, Simone; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Caporali, Enrica

2010-05-01

A blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the plot and small catchment scale is presented. Input hydro-meteorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models for present and future climates are reproduced using a stochastic downscaling technique and a weather generator, "AWE-GEN". The generated time series of meteorological variables for the present climate and an ensemble of possible future climates serve as input to a newly developed physically-based eco-hydrological model "Tethys-Chloris". An application of the proposed methodology is realized reproducing the current (1961-2000) and multiple future (2081-2100) climates for the location of Tucson (Arizona). A general reduction of precipitation and a significant increase of air temperature are inferred. The eco-hydrological model is successively applied to detect changes in water recharge and vegetation dynamics for a desert shrub ecosystem, typical of the semi-arid climate of south Arizona. Results for the future climate account for uncertainties in the downscaling and are produced in terms of probability density functions. A comparison of control and future scenarios is discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity. An appreciable effect of climate change can be observed in metrics of vegetation performance. The negative impact on vegetation due to amplification of water stress in a warmer and dryer climate is offset by a positive effect of carbon dioxide augment. This implies a positive shift in plant capabilities to exploit water. Consequently, the plant water use efficiency and rain use efficiency are expected to increase. Interesting differences in the long-term vegetation productivity are also observed for the ensemble of future climates. The reduction of precipitation and the substantial maintenance of vegetation cover ultimately

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling ofmore » hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.

2017-04-01

Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

The Central Valley Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faunt, C.; Belitz, K.; Hanson, R. T.

2009-12-01

Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, subsidence, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS made a detailed assessment of the Central Valley aquifer system that includes the present status of water resources and how these resources have changed over time. The principal product of this assessment is a tool, referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), that simulates surface-water flows, groundwater flows, and land subsidence in response to stresses from human uses and from climate variability throughout the entire Central Valley. The CVHM utilizes MODFLOW combined with a new tool called “Farm Process” to simulate groundwater and surface-water flow, irrigated agriculture, land subsidence, and other key processes in the Central Valley on a monthly basis. This model was discretized horizontally into 20,000 1-mi2 cells and vertically into 10 layers ranging in thickness from 50 feet at the land surface to 750 feet at depth. A texture model constructed by using data from more than 8,500 drillers’ logs was used to estimate hydraulic properties. Unmetered pumpage and surface-water deliveries for 21 water-balance regions were simulated with the Farm Process. Model results indicate that human activities, predominately surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture, have dramatically influenced the hydrology of the Central Valley. These human activities have increased flow though the aquifer system by about a factor of six compared to pre-development conditions. The simulated hydrology reflects spatial

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

2013-12-01

Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it