Estimation of pollutant loads considering dam operation in Han River Basin by BASINS/Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN.

PubMed

Jung, Kwang-Wook; Yoon, Choon-G; Jang, Jae-Ho; Kong, Dong-Soo

2008-01-01

Effective watershed management often demands qualitative and quantitative predictions of the effect of future management activities as arguments for policy makers and administration. The BASINS geographic information system was developed to compute total maximum daily loads, which are helpful to establish hydrological process and water quality modeling system. In this paper the BASINS toolkit HSPF model is applied in 20,271 km(2) large watershed of the Han River Basin is used for applicability of HSPF and BMPs scenarios. For proper evaluation of watershed and stream water quality, comprehensive estimation methods are necessary to assess large amounts of point source and nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution based on the total watershed area. In this study, The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was estimated to simulate watershed pollutant loads containing dam operation and applied BMPs scenarios for control NPS pollution. The 8-day monitoring data (about three years) were used in the calibration and verification processes. Model performance was in the range of "very good" and "good" based on percent difference. The water-quality simulation results were encouraging for this large sizable watershed with dam operation practice and mixed land uses; HSPF proved adequate, and its application is recommended to simulate watershed processes and BMPs evaluation. IWA Publishing 2008.

Simulating land-use changes and stormwater-detention basins and evaluating their effect on peak streamflows and stream-water quality in Irondequoit Creek basin, New York—A user's manual for HSPF and GenScn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2003-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., was developed during 2000-02 to enable water-resources managers to simulate the effects of future development and stormwater-detention basins on peak flows and water quality of Irondequoit Creek and its tributaries. The model was developed with the program Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) such that proposed or hypothetical land-use changes and instream stormwater-detention basins could be simulated, and their effects on peak flows and loads of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, and nitrate-plus-nitrite nitrogen could be analyzed, through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). This report is a user's manual written to guide the Irondequoit Creek Watershed Collaborative in (1) the creation of land-use and flow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the use of GenScn to analyze the results of these simulations. These analyses can, in turn, aid the group in making basin-wide water-resources-management decisions.

Simulation of Streamflow and Selected Water-Quality Constituents through a Model of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York - A Guide to Model Application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2008-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Onondaga Lake basin in Onondaga County, N.Y., was developed during 2003-07 to assist water-resources managers in making basin-wide management decisions that could affect peak flows and the water quality of tributaries to Onondaga Lake. The model was developed with the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and was designed to allow simulation of proposed or hypothetical land-use changes, best-management practices (BMPs), and instream stormwater-detention basins such that their effects on flows and loads of suspended sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, ammonia, organic nitrogen, and nitrate could be analyzed. Extreme weather conditions, such as intense storms and prolonged droughts, can be simulated through manipulation of the precipitation record. Model results obtained from different scenarios can then be compared and analyzed through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). Background information on HSPF and GenScn is presented to familiarize the user with these two programs. Step-by-step examples are provided on (1) the creation of land-use, BMP, and stormflow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the analysis of simulation results through GenScn.

Hydrological simulation of Sperchios River basin in Central Greece using the MIKE SHE model and geographic information systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios

2017-05-01

The MIKE SHE model is able to simulate the entire stream flow which includes direct and basic flow. Many models either do not simulate or use simplistic methods to determine the basic flow. The MIKE SHE model takes into account many hydrological data. Since this study was directed towards the simulation of surface runoff and infiltration into saturated and unsaturated zone, the MIKE SHE is an appropriate model for reliable conclusions. In the current research, the MIKE SHE model was used to simulate runoff in the area of Sperchios River basin. Meteorological data from eight rainfall stations within the Sperchios River basin were used as inputs. Vegetation as well as geological data was used to perform the calibration and validation of the physical processes of the model. Additionally, ArcGIS program was used. The results indicated that the model was able to simulate the surface runoff satisfactorily, representing all the hydrological data adequately. Some minor differentiations appeared which can be eliminated with the appropriate adjustments that can be decided by the researcher's experience.

Modeling and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

1986-01-01

This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT model in Hydrological Simulation of Chaohe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jie, M.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B. B.

2017-12-01

As a typical distributed hydrological model, the SWAT model also has a challenge in calibrating parameters and analysis their uncertainty. This paper chooses the Chaohe River Basin China as the study area, through the establishment of the SWAT model, loading the DEM data of the Chaohe river basin, the watershed is automatically divided into several sub-basins. Analyzing the land use, soil and slope which are on the basis of the sub-basins and calculating the hydrological response unit (HRU) of the study area, after running SWAT model, the runoff simulation values in the watershed are obtained. On this basis, using weather data, known daily runoff of three hydrological stations, combined with the SWAT-CUP automatic program and the manual adjustment method are used to analyze the multi-site calibration of the model parameters. Furthermore, the GLUE algorithm is used to analyze the parameters uncertainty of the SWAT model. Through the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty study of SWAT, the results indicate that the parameterization of the hydrological characteristics of the Chaohe river is successful and feasible which can be used to simulate the Chaohe river basin.

Legacy model integration for enhancing hydrologic interdisciplinary research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dozier, A.; Arabi, M.; David, O.

2013-12-01

Many challenges are introduced to interdisciplinary research in and around the hydrologic science community due to advances in computing technology and modeling capabilities in different programming languages, across different platforms and frameworks by researchers in a variety of fields with a variety of experience in computer programming. Many new hydrologic models as well as optimization, parameter estimation, and uncertainty characterization techniques are developed in scripting languages such as Matlab, R, Python, or in newer languages such as Java and the .Net languages, whereas many legacy models have been written in FORTRAN and C, which complicates inter-model communication for two-way feedbacks. However, most hydrologic researchers and industry personnel have little knowledge of the computing technologies that are available to address the model integration process. Therefore, the goal of this study is to address these new challenges by utilizing a novel approach based on a publish-subscribe-type system to enhance modeling capabilities of legacy socio-economic, hydrologic, and ecologic software. Enhancements include massive parallelization of executions and access to legacy model variables at any point during the simulation process by another program without having to compile all the models together into an inseparable 'super-model'. Thus, this study provides two-way feedback mechanisms between multiple different process models that can be written in various programming languages and can run on different machines and operating systems. Additionally, a level of abstraction is given to the model integration process that allows researchers and other technical personnel to perform more detailed and interactive modeling, visualization, optimization, calibration, and uncertainty analysis without requiring deep understanding of inter-process communication. To be compatible, a program must be written in a programming language with bindings to a common implementation of the message passing interface (MPI), which includes FORTRAN, C, Java, the .NET languages, Python, R, Matlab, and many others. The system is tested on a longstanding legacy hydrologic model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to observe and enhance speed-up capabilities for various optimization, parameter estimation, and model uncertainty characterization techniques, which is particularly important for computationally intensive hydrologic simulations. Initial results indicate that the legacy extension system significantly decreases developer time, computation time, and the cost of purchasing commercial parallel processing licenses, while enhancing interdisciplinary research by providing detailed two-way feedback mechanisms between various process models with minimal changes to legacy code.

Estimating hydrologic budgets for six Persian Gulf watersheds, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, Majid; Ghafouri, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, MahmoudReza; Goodarzi, Masoud; Mokarian, Zeinab

2017-10-01

Estimation of the major components of the hydrologic budget is important for determining the impacts on the water supply and quality of either planned or proposed land management projects, vegetative changes, groundwater withdrawals, and reservoir management practices and plans. As acquisition of field data is costly and time consuming, models have been created to test various land use practices and their concomitant effects on the hydrologic budget of watersheds. To simulate such management scenarios realistically, a model should be able to simulate the individual components of the hydrologic budget. The main objective of this study is to perform the SWAT2012 model for estimation of hydrological budget in six subbasin of Persian Gulf watershed; Golgol, Baghan, Marghab Shekastian, Tangebirim and Daragah, which are located in south and south west of Iran during 1991-2009. In order to evaluate the performance of the model, hydrological data, soil map, land use map and digital elevation model (DEM) are obtained and prepared for each catchment to run the model. SWAT-CUP with SUFI2 program was used for simulation, uncertainty and validation with 95 Percent Prediction Uncertainty. Coefficient of determination ( R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) were used for evaluation of the model simulation results. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each component of the model gave reasonable output and that the interaction among components was realistic. The study has produced a technique with reliable capability for annual and monthly water budget components in Persian Gulf watershed.

STREAM TEMPERATURE SIMULATION OF FORESTED RIPARIAN AREAS: II. MODEL APPLICATION

EPA Science Inventory

The SHADE-HSPF modeling system described in a companion paper has been tested and applied to the Upper Grande Ronde (UGR) watershed in northeast Oregon. Sensitivities of stream temperature to the heat balance parameters in Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and the ripa...

Continuous hydrologic simulation of runoff for the Middle Fork and South Fork of the Beargrass Creek basin in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, G. Lynn; Downs, Aimee C.; Grace-Jarrett, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Pro-gram-FORTRAN (HSPF) was applied to an urban drainage basin in Jefferson County, Ky to integrate the large amounts of information being collected on water quantity and quality into an analytical framework that could be used as a management and planning tool. Hydrologic response units were developed using geographic data and a K-means analysis to characterize important hydrologic and physical factors in the basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN Expert System (HSPEXP) was used to calibrate the model parameters for the Middle Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for 3 years (June 1, 1991, to May 31, 1994) of 5-minute streamflow and precipitation time series, and 3 years of hourly pan-evaporation time series. The calibrated model parameters were applied to the South Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for confirmation. The model confirmation results indicated that the model simulated the system within acceptable tolerances. The coefficient of determination and coefficient of model-fit efficiency between simulated and observed daily flows were 0.91 and 0.82, respectively, for model calibration and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for model confirmation. The model is most sensitive to estimates of the area of effective impervious land in the basin; the spatial distribution of rain-fall; and the lower-zone evapotranspiration, lower-zone nominal storage, and infiltration-capacity parameters during recession and low-flow periods. The error contribution from these sources varies with season and antecedent conditions.

Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

2013-04-01

Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this submission focuses on the production of climatic scenarios for application in hydrology, the submission « The (cQ)2 project: assessing watershed scale hydrological changes for the province of Québec at the 2050 horizon, a collaborative framework » by Catherine Guay describes how Hydro-Québec and CEHQ put the data into use.

HSPF Toolkit: a New Tool for Stormwater Management at the Watershed Scale

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) is a comprehensive watershed model endorsed by US EPA for simulating point and nonpoint source pollutants. The model is used for developing total maximum daily load (TMDL) plans for impaired water bodies; as such, HSPF is the c...

A process-based algorithm for simulating terraces in SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Terraces in crop fields are one of the most important soil and water conservation measures that affect runoff and erosion processes in a watershed. In large hydrological programs such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), terrace effects are simulated by adjusting the slope length and the US...

Simulations of hydrologic response in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.

2017-12-29

A suite of hydrologic models has been developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACFB) as part of the National Water Census, a U.S. Geological Survey research program that focuses on developing new water accounting tools and assessing water availability and use at the regional and national scales. Seven hydrologic models were developed using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, land cover, and water use on basin hydrology. A coarse-resolution PRMS model was developed for the entire ACFB, and six fine-resolution PRMS models were developed for six subbasins of the ACFB. The coarse-resolution model was loosely coupled with a groundwater model to better assess the effects of water use on streamflow in the lower ACFB, a complex geologic setting with karst features. The PRMS coarse-resolution model was used to provide inputs of recharge to the groundwater model, which in turn provide simulations of groundwater flow that were aggregated with PRMS-based simulations of surface runoff and shallow-subsurface flow. Simulations without the effects of water use were developed for each model for at least the calendar years 1982–2012 with longer periods for the Potato Creek subbasin (1942–2012) and the Spring Creek subbasin (1952–2012). Water-use-affected flows were simulated for 2008–12. Water budget simulations showed heterogeneous distributions of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and storage change across the ACFB. Streamflow volume differences between no-water-use and water-use simulations were largest along the main stem of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee River Basins, with streamflow percentage differences largest in the upper Chattahoochee and Flint River Basins and Spring Creek in the lower Flint River Basin. Water-use information at a shorter time step and a fully coupled simulation in the lower ACFB may further improve water availability estimates and hydrologic simulations in the basin.

A Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, Michael G.; Harbaugh, Arlen W.; Guo, Weixing; Lu, Guoping

1988-01-01

This report presents a finite-difference model and its associated modular computer program. The model simulates flow in three dimensions. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based and an explanation of how those concepts are incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program. The modular structure consists of a Main Program and a series of highly independent subroutines called 'modules.' The modules are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system which is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving linear equations which describe the flow system, such as the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The division of the program into modules permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilita development of additional capabilities because new packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing packages. The input and output systems of the computer program are also designed to permit maximum flexibility. Ground-water flow within the aquifer is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined, unconfined, or a combination of confined and unconfined. Flow associated with external stresses, such as wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, drains, and streams, can also be simulated. The finite-difference equations can be solved using either the Strongly Implicit Procedure or Slice-Successive Overrelaxation. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 and will run without modification on most computers that have a FORTRAN 77 compiler. For each program ,module, this report includes a narrative description, a flow chart, a list of variables, and a module listing.

Simulation of runoff and nutrient export from a typical small watershed in China using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran.

PubMed

Li, Zhaofu; Liu, Hongyu; Luo, Chuan; Li, Yan; Li, Hengpeng; Pan, Jianjun; Jiang, Xiaosan; Zhou, Quansuo; Xiong, Zhengqin

2015-05-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), which is a hydrological and water-quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, was employed to simulate runoff and nutrient export from a typical small watershed in a hilly eastern monsoon region of China. First, a parameter sensitivity analysis was performed to assess how changes in the model parameters affect runoff and nutrient export. Next, the model was calibrated and validated using measured runoff and nutrient concentration data. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E NS ) values of the yearly runoff were 0.87 and 0.69 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. For storms runoff events, the E NS values were 0.93 for the calibration period and 0.47 for the validation period. Antecedent precipitation and soil moisture conditions can affect the simulation accuracy of storm event flow. The E NS values for the total nitrogen (TN) export were 0.58 for the calibration period and 0.51 for the validation period. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the observed and simulated TN concentrations were 0.84 for the calibration period and 0.74 for the validation period. For phosphorus export, the E NS values were 0.89 for the calibration period and 0.88 for the validation period. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the observed and simulated orthophosphate concentrations were 0.96 and 0.94 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The nutrient simulation results are generally satisfactory even though the parameter-lumped HSPF model cannot represent the effects of the spatial pattern of land cover on nutrient export. The model parameters obtained in this study could serve as reference values for applying the model to similar regions. In addition, HSPF can properly describe the characteristics of water quantity and quality processes in this area. After adjustment, calibration, and validation of the parameters, the HSPF model is suitable for hydrological and water-quality simulations in watershed planning and management and for designing best management practices.

Data-base development for water-quality modeling of the Patuxent River basin, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, G.T.; Summers, R.M.

1987-01-01

Procedures and rationale used to develop a data base and data management system for the Patuxent Watershed Nonpoint Source Water Quality Monitoring and Modeling Program of the Maryland Department of the Environment and the U.S. Geological Survey are described. A detailed data base and data management system has been developed to facilitate modeling of the watershed for water quality planning purposes; statistical analysis; plotting of meteorologic, hydrologic and water quality data; and geographic data analysis. The system is Maryland 's prototype for development of a basinwide water quality management program. A key step in the program is to build a calibrated and verified water quality model of the basin using the Hydrological Simulation Program--FORTRAN (HSPF) hydrologic model, which has been used extensively in large-scale basin modeling. The compilation of the substantial existing data base for preliminary calibration of the basin model, including meteorologic, hydrologic, and water quality data from federal and state data bases and a geographic information system containing digital land use and soils data is described. The data base development is significant in its application of an integrated, uniform approach to data base management and modeling. (Lantz-PTT)

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

Development of a comprehensive watershed model applied to study stream yield under drought conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perkins, S.P.; Sophocleous, M.

1999-01-01

We developed a model code to simulate a watershed's hydrology and the hydraulic response of an interconnected stream-aquifer system, and applied the model code to the Lower Republican River Basin in Kansas. The model code links two well-known computer programs: MODFLOW (modular 3-D flow model), which simulates ground water flow and stream-aquifer interaction; and SWAT (soil water assessment tool), a soil water budget simulator for an agricultural watershed. SWAT represents a basin as a collection of subbasins in terms of soil, land use, and weather data, and simulates each subbasin on a daily basis to determine runoff, percolation, evaporation, irrigation, pond seepages and crop growth. Because SWAT applies a lumped hydrologic model to each subbasin, spatial heterogeneities with respect to factors such as soil type and land use are not resolved geographically, but can instead be represented statistically. For the Republican River Basin model, each combination of six soil types and three land uses, referred to as a hydrologic response unit (HRU), was simulated with a separate execution of SWAT. A spatially weighted average was then taken over these results for each hydrologic flux and time step by a separate program, SWBAVG. We wrote a package for MOD-FLOW to associate each subbasin with a subset of aquifer grid cells and stream reaches, and to distribute the hydrologic fluxes given for each subbasin by SWAT and SWBAVG over MODFLOW's stream-aquifer grid to represent tributary flow, surface and ground water diversions, ground water recharge, and evapotranspiration from ground water. The Lower Republican River Basin model was calibrated with respect to measured ground water levels, streamflow, and reported irrigation water use. The model was used to examine the relative contributions of stream yield components and the impact on stream yield and base flow of administrative measures to restrict irrigation water use during droughts. Model results indicate that tributary flow is the dominant component of stream yield and that reduction of irrigation water use produces a corresponding increase in base flow and stream yield. However, the increase in stream yield resulting from reduced water use does not appear to be of sufficient magnitude to restore minimum desirable streamflows.

Simulation of runoff and water quality for 1990 and 2008 land use conditions in the Reedy Creek watershed, East-Central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, Shaun M.; Schiffer, Donna M.

2002-01-01

Hydrologic and water-quality data have been collected within the 177-square-mile Reedy Creek, Florida, watershed, beginning as early as 1939, but the data have not been used to evaluate relations among land use, hydrology, and water quality. A model of the Reedy Creek watershed was developed and applied to the period January 1990 to December 1995 to provide a computational foundation for evaluating the effects of future land-use changes on hydrology and water quality in the watershed. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality of runoff for pervious land areas, impervious land areas, and stream reaches. Six land-use types were used to characterize the hydrology and water quality of pervious and impervious land areas in the Reedy Creek watershed: agriculture, rangeland, forest, wetlands, rapid infiltration basins, and urban areas. Hydrologic routing and water-quality reactions were simulated to characterize hydrologic and water-quality processes and the movement of runoff and its constituents through the main stream channels and their tributaries. Because of the complexity of the stream system within the Reedy Creek Improvement District (RCID) (hydraulic structures, retention ponds) and the anticipated difficulty of modeling the system, an approach of calibrating the model parameters for a subset of the gaged watersheds and confirming the usefulness of the parameters by simulating the remainder of the gaged sites was selected for this study. Two sub-watersheds (Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek) were selected for calibration because both have similar land use to watersheds within the RCID (with the exception of urban areas). Given the lack of available rainfall data, the hydrologic calibration of the Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek sub-watersheds was considered acceptable (for monthly data, correlation coefficients, 0.86 and 0.88, and coefficients of model-fit efficiency, 0.72 and 0.74, respectively). The hydrologic model was tested by applying the parameter sets developed for Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek to other land areas within the Reedy Creek watershed, and by comparing the simulated results to observed data sets for Reedy Creek near Vineland, Bonnet Creek near Vineland, and Reedy Creek near Loughman. The hydrologic model confirmation for Reedy Creek near Vineland (correlation coefficient, 0.91, and coefficient of model fit efficiency, 0.78, for monthly flows) was acceptable. Flows for Bonnet Creek near Vineland were substantially under simulated. Consideration of the ground-water contribution to Bonnet Creek could improve the water balance simulation for Bonnet Creek near Vineland. On longer time scales (monthly or over the 72-month simulation period), simulated discharges for Reedy Creek near Loughman agreed well with observed data (correlation coefficient, 0.88). For monthly flows the coefficient of model-fit efficiency was 0.77. On a shorter time scale (less than a month), however, storm volumes were greatly over simulated and low flows (less than 8 cubic feet per second) were greatly under simulated. A primary reason for the poor results at low flows is the diversion of an unknown amount of water from the RCID at the Bonnet Creek near Kissimmee site. Selection of water-quality constituents for simulation was based primarily on the availability of water-quality data. Dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorus species were simulated. Representation of nutrient cycling in HSPF also required simulation of biochemical oxygen demand and phytoplankton populations. The correlation coefficient for simulated and observed daily mean dissolved oxygen concentration values at Reedy Creek near Vineland was 0.633. Simulated time series of total phosphorus, phosphate, ammonia nitrogen, and nitrate nitrogen generally agreed well with periodically observed values for the Whittenhorse Creek and Davenport Creek sites. Simulated water-quality c

Watershed modeling of dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand using a hydrological simulation Fortran program.

PubMed

Liu, Zhijun; Kieffer, Janna M; Kingery, William L; Huddleston, David H; Hossain, Faisal

2007-11-01

Several inland water bodies in the St. Louis Bay watershed have been identified as being potentially impaired due to low level of dissolved oxygen (DO). In order to calculate the total maximum daily loads (TMDL), a standard watershed model supported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF), was used to simulate water temperature, DO, and bio-chemical oxygen demand (BOD). Both point and non-point sources of BOD were included in watershed modeling. The developed model was calibrated at two time periods: 1978 to 1986 and 2000 to 2001 with simulated DO closely matched the observed data and captured the seasonal variations. The model represented the general trend and average condition of observed BOD. Water temperature and BOD decay are the major factors that affect DO simulation, whereas nutrient processes, including nitrification, denitrification, and phytoplankton cycle, have slight impacts. The calibrated water quality model provides a representative linkage between the sources of BOD and in-stream DO\\BOD concentrations. The developed input parameters in this research could be extended to similar coastal watersheds for TMDL determination and Best Management Practice (BMP) evaluation.

ENHANCING HSPF MODEL CHANNEL HYDRAULIC REPRESENTATION

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) is a comprehensive watershed model, which employs depth-area-volume-flow relationships known as hydraulic function table (FTABLE) to represent stream channel cross-sections and reservoirs. An accurate FTABLE determination for a...

Modeling and Analysis of the Water Cycle: Seasonal and Event Variability at the Walnut River Research Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. A.; Miller, N. L.; Sale, M. J.; Springer, E. P.; Wesely, M. L.; Bashford, K. E.; Conrad, M. E.; Costigan, K. R.; Kemball-Cook, S.; King, A. W.; Klazura, G. E.; Lesht, B. M.; Machavaram, M. V.; Sultan, M.; Song, J.; Washington-Allen, R.

2001-12-01

A multi-laboratory Department of Energy (DOE) team (Argonne National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory) has begun an investigation of hydrometeorological processes at the Whitewater subbasin of the Walnut River Watershed in Kansas. The Whitewater sub-basin is viewed as a DOE long-term hydrologic research watershed and resides within the well-instrumented Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Cloud Radiation Atmosphere Testbed (ARM/CART) and the proposed Arkansas-Red River regional hydrologic testbed. The focus of this study is the development and evaluation of coupled regional to watershed scale models that simulate atmospheric, land surface, and hydrologic processes as systems with linkages and feedback mechanisms. This pilot is the precursor to the proposed DOE Water Cycle Dynamics Prediction Program. An important new element is the introduction of water isotope budget equations into mesoscale and hydrologic modeling. Two overarching hypotheses are part of this pilot study: (1) Can the predictability of the regional water balance be improved using high-resolution model simulations that are constrained and validated using new water isotope and hydrospheric water measurements? (2) Can water isotopic tracers be used to segregate different pathways through the water cycle and predict a change in regional climate patterns? Initial results of the pilot will be presented along with a description and copies of the proposed DOE Water Cycle Dynamics Prediction Program.

MODFLOW-2005 : the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model--the ground-water flow process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harbaugh, Arlen W.

2005-01-01

This report presents MODFLOW-2005, which is a new version of the finite-difference ground-water model commonly called MODFLOW. Ground-water flow is simulated using a block-centered finite-difference approach. Layers can be simulated as confined or unconfined. Flow associated with external stresses, such as wells, areal recharge, evapotranspiration, drains, and rivers, also can be simulated. The report includes detailed explanations of physical and mathematical concepts on which the model is based, an explanation of how those concepts are incorporated in the modular structure of the computer program, instructions for using the model, and details of the computer code. The modular structure consists of a MAIN Program and a series of highly independent subroutines. The subroutines are grouped into 'packages.' Each package deals with a specific feature of the hydrologic system that is to be simulated, such as flow from rivers or flow into drains, or with a specific method of solving the set of simultaneous equations resulting from the finite-difference method. Several solution methods are incorporated, including the Preconditioned Conjugate-Gradient method. The division of the program into packages permits the user to examine specific hydrologic features of the model independently. This also facilitates development of additional capabilities because new packages can be added to the program without modifying the existing packages. The input and output systems of the computer program also are designed to permit maximum flexibility. The program is designed to allow other capabilities, such as transport and optimization, to be incorporated, but this report is limited to describing the ground-water flow capability. The program is written in Fortran 90 and will run without modification on most computers that have a Fortran 90 compiler.

AQMAN; linear and quadratic programming matrix generator using two-dimensional ground-water flow simulation for aquifer management modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lefkoff, L.J.; Gorelick, S.M.

1987-01-01

A FORTRAN-77 computer program code that helps solve a variety of aquifer management problems involving the control of groundwater hydraulics. It is intended for use with any standard mathematical programming package that uses Mathematical Programming System input format. The computer program creates the input files to be used by the optimization program. These files contain all the hydrologic information and management objectives needed to solve the management problem. Used in conjunction with a mathematical programming code, the computer program identifies the pumping or recharge strategy that achieves a user 's management objective while maintaining groundwater hydraulic conditions within desired limits. The objective may be linear or quadratic, and may involve the minimization of pumping and recharge rates or of variable pumping costs. The problem may contain constraints on groundwater heads, gradients, and velocities for a complex, transient hydrologic system. Linear superposition of solutions to the transient, two-dimensional groundwater flow equation is used by the computer program in conjunction with the response matrix optimization method. A unit stress is applied at each decision well and transient responses at all control locations are computed using a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey two dimensional aquifer simulation model. The program also computes discounted cost coefficients for the objective function and accounts for transient aquifer conditions. (Author 's abstract)

Urban Stormwater Management Model and Tools for Designing Stormwater Management of Green Infrastructure Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, H.; Chow, M. F.; Usman, F.; Sidek, L. M.; Roseli, Z. A.; Norlida, M. D.

2016-03-01

Urbanization is growing rapidly in Malaysia. Rapid urbanization has known to have several negative impacts towards hydrological cycle due to decreasing of pervious area and deterioration of water quality in stormwater runoff. One of the negative impacts of urbanization is the congestion of the stormwater drainage system and this situation leading to flash flood problem and water quality degradation. There are many urban stormwater management softwares available in the market such as Storm Water Drainage System design and analysis program (DRAINS), Urban Drainage and Sewer Model (MOUSE), InfoWorks River Simulation (InfoWork RS), Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M), Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), XP Storm Water Management Model (XPSWMM), MIKE-SWMM, Quality-Quantity Simulators (QQS), Storage, Treatment, Overflow, Runoff Model (STORM), and Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). In this paper, we are going to discuss briefly about several softwares and their functionality, accessibility, characteristics and components in the quantity analysis of the hydrological design software and compare it with MSMA Design Aid and Database. Green Infrastructure (GI) is one of the main topics that has widely been discussed all over the world. Every development in the urban area is related to GI. GI can be defined as green area build in the develop area such as forest, park, wetland or floodway. The role of GI is to improve life standard such as water filtration or flood control. Among the twenty models that have been compared to MSMA SME, ten models were selected to conduct a comprehensive review for this study. These are known to be widely accepted by water resource researchers. These ten tools are further classified into three major categories as models that address the stormwater management ability of GI in terms of quantity and quality, models that have the capability of conducting the economic analysis of GI and models that can address both stormwater management and economic aspects together.

A modular finite-element model (MODFE) for areal and axisymmetric ground-water-flow problems, Part 3: Design philosophy and programming details

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torak, L.J.

1993-01-01

A MODular Finite-Element, digital-computer program (MODFE) was developed to simulate steady or unsteady-state, two-dimensional or axisymmetric ground-water-flow. The modular structure of MODFE places the computationally independent tasks that are performed routinely by digital-computer programs simulating ground-water flow into separate subroutines, which are executed from the main program by control statements. Each subroutine consists of complete sets of computations, or modules, which are identified by comment statements, and can be modified by the user without affecting unrelated computations elsewhere in the program. Simulation capabilities can be added or modified by either adding or modifying subroutines that perform specific computational tasks, and the modular-program structure allows the user to create versions of MODFE that contain only the simulation capabilities that pertain to the ground-water problem of interest. MODFE is written in a Fortran programming language that makes it virtually device independent and compatible with desk-top personal computers and large mainframes. MODFE uses computer storage and execution time efficiently by taking advantage of symmetry and sparseness within the coefficient matrices of the finite-element equations. Parts of the matrix coefficients are computed and stored as single-subscripted variables, which are assembled into a complete coefficient just prior to solution. Computer storage is reused during simulation to decrease storage requirements. Descriptions of subroutines that execute the computational steps of the modular-program structure are given in tables that cross reference the subroutines with particular versions of MODFE. Programming details of linear and nonlinear hydrologic terms are provided. Structure diagrams for the main programs show the order in which subroutines are executed for each version and illustrate some of the linear and nonlinear versions of MODFE that are possible. Computational aspects of changing stresses and boundary conditions with time and of mass-balance and error terms are given for each hydrologic feature. Program variables are listed and defined according to their occurrence in the main programs and in subroutines. Listings of the main programs and subroutines are given.

An Open-Source Arduino-based Controller for Mechanical Rain Simulators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantilina, K. K.

2017-12-01

Many commercial rain simulators currently used in hydrology rely on inflexible and outdated controller designs. These analog controllers typically only allow a handful of discrete parameter options, and do not support internal timing functions or continuously-changing parameters. A desire for finer control of rain simulation events necessitated the design and construction of a microcontroller-based controller, using widely available off-the-shelf components. A menu driven interface allows users to fine-tune simulation parameters without the need for training or experience with microcontrollers, and the accessibility of the Arduino IDE allows users with a minimum of programming and hardware experience to modify the controller program to suit the needs of individual experiments.

Uncertainty Propagation of Non-Parametric-Derived Precipitation Estimates into Multi-Hydrologic Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the uncertainty of global precipitation datasets is beneficial when using these precipitation products in hydrological applications, because precipitation uncertainty propagation through hydrologic modeling can significantly affect the accuracy of the simulated hydrologic variables. In this research the Iberian Peninsula has been used as the study area with a study period spanning eleven years (2000-2010). This study evaluates the performance of multiple hydrologic models forced with combined global rainfall estimates derived based on a Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) technique. In QRF technique three satellite precipitation products (CMORPH, PERSIANN, and 3B42 (V7)); an atmospheric reanalysis precipitation and air temperature dataset; satellite-derived near-surface daily soil moisture data; and a terrain elevation dataset are being utilized in this study. A high-resolution, ground-based observations driven precipitation dataset (named SAFRAN) available at 5 km/1 h resolution is used as reference. Through the QRF blending framework the stochastic error model produces error-adjusted ensemble precipitation realizations, which are used to force four global hydrological models (JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), WaterGAP3 (Water-Global Assessment and Prognosis), ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) and SURFEX (Stands for Surface Externalisée) ) to simulate three hydrologic variables (surface runoff, subsurface runoff and evapotranspiration). The models are forced with the reference precipitation to generate reference-based hydrologic simulations. This study presents a comparative analysis of multiple hydrologic model simulations for different hydrologic variables and the impact of the blending algorithm on the simulated hydrologic variables. Results show how precipitation uncertainty propagates through the different hydrologic model structures to manifest in reduction of error in hydrologic variables.

Hydrologic modeling of two glaciated watersheds in Northeast Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Srinivasan, M.S.; Hamlett, J.M.; Day, R.L.; Sams, J.I.; Petersen, G.W.

1998-01-01

A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36 x 106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82 x 106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.A hydrologic modeling study, using the Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was conducted in two glaciated watersheds, Purdy Creek and Ariel Creek in northeastern Pennsylvania. Both watersheds have wetlands and poorly drained soils due to low hydraulic conductivity and presence of fragipans. The HSPF model was calibrated in the Purdy Creek watershed and verified in the Ariel Creek watershed for June 1992 to December 1993 period. In Purdy Creek, the total volume of observed streamflow during the entire simulation period was 13.36??106 m3 and the simulated streamflow volume was 13.82??106 m3 (5 percent difference). For the verification simulation in Ariel Creek, the difference between the total observed and simulated flow volumes was 17 percent. Simulated peak flow discharges were within two hours of the observed for 30 of 46 peak flow events (discharge greater than 0.1 m3/sec) in Purdy Creek and 27 of 53 events in Ariel Creek. For 22 of the 46 events in Purdy Creek and 24 of 53 in Ariel Creek, the differences between the observed and simulated peak discharge rates were less than 30 percent. These 22 events accounted for 63 percent of total volume of streamflow observed during the selected 46 peak flow events in Purdy Creek. In Ariel Creek, these 24 peak flow events accounted for 62 percent of the total flow observed during all peak flow events. Differences in observed and simulated peak flow rates and volumes (on a percent basis) were greater during the snowmelt runoff events and summer periods than for other times.

Development of total maximum daily loads for bacteria impaired watershed using the comprehensive hydrology and water quality simulation model.

PubMed

Kim, Sang M; Brannan, Kevin M; Zeckoski, Rebecca W; Benham, Brian L

2014-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop bacteria total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for the Hardware River watershed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, USA. The TMDL program is an integrated watershed management approach required by the Clean Water Act. The TMDLs were developed to meet Virginia's water quality standard for bacteria at the time, which stated that the calendar-month geometric mean concentration of Escherichia coli should not exceed 126 cfu/100 mL, and that no single sample should exceed a concentration of 235 cfu/100 mL. The bacteria impairment TMDLs were developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF). The hydrology and water quality components of HSPF were calibrated and validated using data from the Hardware River watershed to ensure that the model adequately simulated runoff and bacteria concentrations. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was used to estimate the contributions from the various bacteria sources in the Hardware River watershed to the in-stream concentration. Bacteria loads were estimated through an extensive source characterization process. Simulation results for existing conditions indicated that the majority of the bacteria came from livestock and wildlife direct deposits and pervious lands. Different source reduction scenarios were evaluated to identify scenarios that meet both the geometric mean and single sample maximum E. coli criteria with zero violations. The resulting scenarios required extreme and impractical reductions from livestock and wildlife sources. Results from studies similar to this across Virginia partially contributed to a reconsideration of the standard's applicability to TMDL development.

[Review on HSPF model for simulation of hydrology and water quality processes].

PubMed

Li, Zhao-fu; Liu, Hong-Yu; Li, Yan

2012-07-01

Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), written in FORTRAN, is one ol the best semi-distributed hydrology and water quality models, which was first developed based on the Stanford Watershed Model. Many studies on HSPF model application were conducted. It can represent the contributions of sediment, nutrients, pesticides, conservatives and fecal coliforms from agricultural areas, continuously simulate water quantity and quality processes, as well as the effects of climate change and land use change on water quantity and quality. HSPF consists of three basic application components: PERLND (Pervious Land Segment) IMPLND (Impervious Land Segment), and RCHRES (free-flowing reach or mixed reservoirs). In general, HSPF has extensive application in the modeling of hydrology or water quality processes and the analysis of climate change and land use change. However, it has limited use in China. The main problems with HSPF include: (1) some algorithms and procedures still need to revise, (2) due to the high standard for input data, the accuracy of the model is limited by spatial and attribute data, (3) the model is only applicable for the simulation of well-mixed rivers, reservoirs and one-dimensional water bodies, it must be integrated with other models to solve more complex problems. At present, studies on HSPF model development are still undergoing, such as revision of model platform, extension of model function, method development for model calibration, and analysis of parameter sensitivity. With the accumulation of basic data and imorovement of data sharing, the HSPF model will be applied more extensively in China.

Application of two hydrologic models with different runoff mechanisms to a hillslope dominated watershed in the northeastern US: A comparison of HSPF and SMR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.S.; Coon, W.F.; Mehta, V.K.; Steenhuis, T.S.; Brooks, E.S.; Boll, J.

2003-01-01

Differences in the simulation of hydrologic processes by watershed models directly affect the accuracy of results. Surface runoff generation can be simulated as either: (1) infiltration-excess (or Hortonian) overland flow, or (2) saturation-excess overland flow. This study compared the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) and the Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) models, each representing one of these mechanisms. These two models were applied to a 102 km2 watershed in the upper part of the Irondequoit Creek basin in central New York State over a seven-year simulation period. The models differed in both the complexity of simulating snowmelt and baseflow processes as well as the detail in which the geographic information was preserved by each model. Despite their differences in structure and representation of hydrologic processes, the two models simulated streamflow with almost equal accuracy. Since streamflow is an integral response and depends mainly on the watershed water balance, this was not unexpected. Model efficiency values for the seven-year simulation period were 0.67 and 0.65 for SMR and HSPF, respectively. HSPF simulated winter streamflow slightly better than SMR as a result of its complex snowmelt routine, whereas SMR simulated summer flows better than HSPF as a result of its runoff and baseflow processes. An important difference between model results was the ability to predict the spatial distribution of soil moisture content. HSPF aggregates soil moisture content, which is generally related to a specific pervious land unit across the entire watershed, whereas SMR predictions of moisture content distribution are geographically specific and matched field observations reasonably well. Important is that the saturated area was predicted well by SMR and confirmed the validity of using saturation-excess mechanisms for this hillslope dominated watershed. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) Data Formatting Tool (HDFT)

EPA Science Inventory

The HSPF data formatting and unit conversion tool has two seperate applications: a web-based application and a desktop application. The tool was developed to aid users in formatting data for HSPF stormwater modeling applications. Unlike traditional HSPF modeling applications, sto...

Hydrological alteration of the Upper Nakdong river under AR5 climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Park, Y.; Cha, W. Y.; Okjeong, L.; Choi, J.; Lee, J.

2016-12-01

One of the tasks faced to water engineers is how to consider the climate change impact in our water resources management. Especially in South Korea, where almost all drinking water is taken from major rivers, the public attention is focused on their eco-hydrologic status. In this study, the effect of climate change on eco-hydrologic regime in the Upper Nakdong river which is one of major rivers in South Korea is investigated using SWAT. The simulation results are measured using the indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) established by U.S. Nature Conservancy. Future climate information is obtained by scaling historical series, provided by Korean Meteorological Administration RCM (KMA RCM) and four RCP scenarios. KMA RCM has 12.5-km spatial resolution in Korean Peninsula and is produced by UK Hedley Centre regional climate model HadGEM3-RA. The RCM bias is corrected by the Kernel density distribution mapping (KDDM) method. The KDDM estimates the cumulative probability density function (CDF) of each dataset using kernel density estimation, and is implemented by quantile-mapping the CDF of a present climate variable obtained from the RCM onto that of the corresponding observed climate variable. Although the simulation results from different RCP scenarios show diverse hydrologic responses in our watershed, the mainstream of future simulation results indicate that there will be more river flow in southeast Korea. The predicted impacts of hydrological alteration caused by climate change on the aquatic ecosystem in the Upper Nakdong river will be presented. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Integrated Modeling Approach for Verifying Water Storage Services for a Payment for Environmental Service Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, G.; Shukla, S.; Guzha, A. C.

2013-12-01

Hydrologic models have been used for improved understanding of how an ecosystem's hydrologic response to human intervention and may provide substantial insight into the viability of payment for environmental services (PES) programs. Little is currently known about how hydrologic models can contribute to the design and evaluation of PES programs. Increased water storage is a desired environmental service (ES) for the Florida Everglades' watershed to reduce nutrient loads and excessive flows to lakes and estuaries in the region. We present monitoring and modeling results to verify the water storage PES for two ranch sites (wetland and watershed scales) located in the Northern Everglades region located north of the Lake Okeechobee (LO). Verification of the water storage PES using at least 3 years of hydrologic data was inconclusive due to variable rainfall during pre- and post-PES periods. An integrated surface and groundwater model, MIKE-SHE/MIKE11, was used to help verify the water storage service as well as predict ecological responses for different water storage scenarios (different levels of storage). The hydrological model was calibrated and validated using field measurements and was able to effectively simulate the surface and groundwater levels for the watershed (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE = 0.54 to 0.82) and for surface water levels within wetlands (NSE = 0.54 to 0.84). Scenario analyses for storage levels showed an inverse relationship between board heights for water control structures and flows at the watershed outlet. Changes in flow were marginal when board heights approached a maximum indicating movement of water into subsurface storage. Combining simulation results with field measurements showed reduced flows and increased subsurface storage (2 cm/yr.), a desired outcome for protecting LO and estuarine systems from excessive flows. Simulated wetland water levels were combined with LIDAR-based topography to predict inundation for wetlands at the two PES sites for exploring the addition of biodiversity related ES. Simulations showed that effects of increased storage on enhanced hydro-periods and biodiversity was limited to the wetlands close to the drainage ditches. Results for a variety of water management scenarios showed that modeling can be used as an effective tool for optimizing the ES for a desired PES scheme. Measured and predicted surface flows from watershed and wetland water levels for different scenarios are currently being combined with ecological measurements to develop hydro-ecological models that predict the effects of enhanced water storage on ecological diversity.

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 3. Program listings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This is the third of 3 volumes of the description of the VTT (Variable Thickness Transient) Groundwater Hydrologic Model - second level (intermediate complexity) two-dimensional saturated groundwater flow.« less

Multi-model ensemble hydrological simulation using a BP Neural Network for the upper Yalongjiang River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhanjie; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Xinyi; Sun, Wenchao; Pang, Bo; Yue, Jiajia

2018-06-01

Hydrological models are important and effective tools for detecting complex hydrological processes. Different models have different strengths when capturing the various aspects of hydrological processes. Relying on a single model usually leads to simulation uncertainties. Ensemble approaches, based on multi-model hydrological simulations, can improve application performance over single models. In this study, the upper Yalongjiang River Basin was selected for a case study. Three commonly used hydrological models (SWAT, VIC, and BTOPMC) were selected and used for independent simulations with the same input and initial values. Then, the BP neural network method was employed to combine the results from the three models. The results show that the accuracy of BP ensemble simulation is better than that of the single models.

Afforestation may have little effect on hydrological cycle over the Three-North region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, S.; Xie, X.

2017-12-01

Afforestation or reforestation is generally effective to improve environmental conditions, and it may have substantial impact on hydrological cycle by increasing rainfall interception and transpiration. To combat desertification and to control dust storms, China has implemented a few Large-scale afforestation programs since 1980s, including the world's most ambitious afforestation program, the Three-North Forest Shelterbelt (TNFS) program in the arid and semiarid land areas. This afforestation plan covers about 4 million km2 (> 42%) of the land area of China. Although the TNFS program eased environmental problems in the region to some degree, the consequences of large-scale afforestation on hydrological cycles is still controversial. To identify the impact of the afforestation on hydrological cycle at regional scale, we employed a large-scale hydrological model, i.e., the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and satellite remote sensing data sets, i.e., leaf area index (LAI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Global LAnd Surface satellite (GLASS). The VIC modelling was forced with long-term dynamic LAI and gridded atmospheric data. We focused on the period of 2000-2015 when fewer afforestation activities implemented and the vegetation in steady growth stage in the three-north region. The results show that, despite the spatial heterogeneity, LAI in the growing season exhibits a slight increase across the three-north region, which is the contribution of the vegetation growth due to afforestation program. Evapotranspiration (ET) increased at a rate of 3.93 mm/yr over the whole region from 2000 to 2015. The spatial pattern of ET is consistent with the changes in LAI and precipitation, but this does not mean vegetation growth contributed equally. Based on factor-distinguishing simulations, we found that precipitation change has more significant influence on hydrological cycle than vegetation growth. Therefore, the afforestation practices are influential at small-catchment scale, but at regional scale, they may have little effect on the hydrological cycles. For sustainable water resource management, we should pay special attention on climate change rather than the afforestation efforts.

Preprocessor and postprocessor computer programs for a radial-flow finite-element model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pucci, A.A.; Pope, D.A.

1987-01-01

Preprocessing and postprocessing computer programs that enhance the utility of the U.S. Geological Survey radial-flow model have been developed. The preprocessor program: (1) generates a triangular finite element mesh from minimal data input, (2) produces graphical displays and tabulations of data for the mesh , and (3) prepares an input data file to use with the radial-flow model. The postprocessor program is a version of the radial-flow model, which was modified to (1) produce graphical output for simulation and field results, (2) generate a statistic for comparing the simulation results with observed data, and (3) allow hydrologic properties to vary in the simulated region. Examples of the use of the processor programs for a hypothetical aquifer test are presented. Instructions for the data files, format instructions, and a listing of the preprocessor and postprocessor source codes are given in the appendixes. (Author 's abstract)

On the performance of updating Stochastic Dynamic Programming policy using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in a snow-covered region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A.; Pascal, C.; Leconte, R.

2014-12-01

Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) is known to be an effective technique to find the optimal operating policy of hydropower systems. In order to improve the performance of SDP, this project evaluates the impact of re-updating the policy at every time step by using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We present a case study of the Kemano's hydropower system on the Nechako River in British Columbia, Canada. Managed by Rio Tinto Alcan (RTA), this system is subject to large streamflow volumes in spring due to important amount of snow depth during the winter season. Therefore, the operating policy should not only maximize production but also minimize the risk of flooding. The hydrological behavior of the system is simulated with CEQUEAU, a distributed and deterministic hydrological model developed by the Institut national de la recherche scientifique - Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE) in Quebec, Canada. On each decision time step, CEQUEAU is used to generate ESP scenarios based on historical meteorological sequences and the current state of the hydrological model. These scenarios are used into the SDP to optimize the new release policy for the next time steps. This routine is then repeated over the entire simulation period. Results are compared with those obtained by using SDP on historical inflow scenarios.

Hydrological Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis Using Topmodel and Simulated Annealing Techniques.application To The Haute-mentue Catchment(switzerland).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balin Talamba, D.; Higy, C.; Joerin, C.; Musy, A.

The paper presents an application concerning the hydrological modelling for the Haute-Mentue catchment, located in western Switzerland. A simplified version of Topmodel, developed in a Labview programming environment, was applied in the aim of modelling the hydrological processes on this catchment. Previous researches car- ried out in this region outlined the importance of the environmental tracers in studying the hydrological behaviour and an important knowledge has been accumulated dur- ing this period concerning the mechanisms responsible for runoff generation. In con- formity with the theoretical constraints, Topmodel was applied for an Haute-Mentue sub-catchment where tracing experiments showed constantly low contributions of the soil water during the flood events. The model was applied for two humid periods in 1998. First, the model calibration was done in order to provide the best estimations for the total runoff. Instead, the simulated components (groundwater and rapid flow) showed far deviations from the reality indicated by the tracing experiments. Thus, a new calibration was performed including additional information given by the environ- mental tracing. The calibration of the model was done by using simulated annealing (SA) techniques, which are easy to implement and statistically allow for converging to a global minimum. The only problem is that the method is time and computer consum- ing. To improve this, a version of SA was used which is known as very fast-simulated annealing (VFSA). The principles are the same as for the SA technique. The random search is guided by certain probability distribution and the acceptance criterion is the same as for SA but the VFSA allows for better taking into account the ranges of vari- ation of each parameter. Practice with Topmodel showed that the energy function has different sensitivities along different dimensions of the parameter space. The VFSA algorithm allows differentiated search in relation with the sensitivity of the param- eters. The environmental tracing was used in the aim of constraining the parameter space in order to better simulate the hydrological behaviour of the catchment. VFSA outlined issues for characterising the significance of Topmodel input parameters as well as their uncertainty for the hydrological modelling.

SYNTOR: A synthetic daily weather generator version 3.4 user manual

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Existing records of weather observations are often too short to conduct long duration hydrologic and environmental computer simulations. A computer program can be used to generate synthetic weather data to increase the length of existing weather records. SYNTOR, which stands for SYNthetic weather g...

Global Floods and Droughts Simulation to Support International Flood Initiative and International Drought Initiative of the UNESCO International Hydrological Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusyev, M.; Takeuchi, K.; Magome, J.; Masood, M.

2015-12-01

One of the main achievements of the IHD/IHP programs is the promotion and enhancement of hydrological data exchange within the global water community. World Catalogue of Very Large Floods, World Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth are the great examples of some initial collaborative efforts and the FRIEND and Catalogue of Rivers for Southeast Asia and the Pacific are the more recent outcomes. Along with similar efforts by WMO, FAO, IGBP, CEOS and many other national and international institutes, the global hydrological monitoring and nowcast have made a considerable progress last decade and are about to put into practice. Such efforts include global streamflow alert system of U Maryland and GFAS-streamflow of ICHARM and U Yamanshi. Especially the recent achievements of GFAS-streamflow support the current efforts of IHP International Flood Initiative (IFI) and International Drought Initiatives (IDI) by global nowcasts and easily visible indicators in 20-km resolution.

Virtual hydrology observatory: an immersive visualization of hydrology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Simon; Cruz-Neira, Carolina; Habib, Emad; Gerndt, Andreas

2009-02-01

The Virtual Hydrology Observatory will provide students with the ability to observe the integrated hydrology simulation with an instructional interface by using a desktop based or immersive virtual reality setup. It is the goal of the virtual hydrology observatory application to facilitate the introduction of field experience and observational skills into hydrology courses through innovative virtual techniques that mimic activities during actual field visits. The simulation part of the application is developed from the integrated atmospheric forecast model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the hydrology model: Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Both the output from WRF and GSSHA models are then used to generate the final visualization components of the Virtual Hydrology Observatory. The various visualization data processing techniques provided by VTK are 2D Delaunay triangulation and data optimization. Once all the visualization components are generated, they are integrated into the simulation data using VRFlowVis and VR Juggler software toolkit. VR Juggler is used primarily to provide the Virtual Hydrology Observatory application with fully immersive and real time 3D interaction experience; while VRFlowVis provides the integration framework for the hydrologic simulation data, graphical objects and user interaction. A six-sided CAVETM like system is used to run the Virtual Hydrology Observatory to provide the students with a fully immersive experience.

High resolution global flood hazard map from physically-based hydrologic and hydraulic models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begnudelli, L.; Kaheil, Y.; McCollum, J.

2017-12-01

The global flood map published online at http://www.fmglobal.com/research-and-resources/global-flood-map at 90m resolution is being used worldwide to understand flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs. The modeling system is based on a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model can be applied to large-scale flood hazard mapping thanks to several solutions that maximize its efficiency and the use of parallel computing. The hydrologic component of the modeling system is the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model. HRR simulates hydrological processes using a Green-Ampt parameterization, and is calibrated against observed discharge data from several publicly-available datasets. For inundation mapping, we use a 2D Finite-Volume Shallow-Water model with wetting/drying. We introduce here a grid Up-Scaling Technique (UST) for hydraulic modeling to perform simulations at higher resolution at global scale with relatively short computational times. A 30m SRTM is now available worldwide along with higher accuracy and/or resolution local Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in many countries and regions. UST consists of aggregating computational cells, thus forming a coarser grid, while retaining the topographic information from the original full-resolution mesh. The full-resolution topography is used for building relationships between volume and free surface elevation inside cells and computing inter-cell fluxes. This approach almost achieves computational speed typical of the coarse grids while preserving, to a significant extent, the accuracy offered by the much higher resolution available DEM. The simulations are carried out along each river of the network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs generated by HRR. Hydrographs are scaled so that the peak corresponds to the return period corresponding to the hazard map being produced (e.g. 100 years, 500 years). Each numerical simulation models one river reach, except for the longest reaches which are split in smaller parts. Here we show results for selected river basins worldwide.

Characterizing Flow and Suspended Sediment Trends in the Sacramento River Basin, CA Using Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, M. A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Wright, S. A.; Minear, J. T.

2014-12-01

A watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin, CA was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) for fifty years (1958-2008) using the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF). To compensate for the large model domain and sparse data, rigorous meteorological development and characterization of hydraulic geometry were employed to spatially distribute climate and hydrologic processes in unmeasured locations. Parameterization techniques sought to include known spatial information for tributaries such as soil information and slope, and then parameters were scaled up or down during calibration to retain the spatial characteristics of the land surface in un-gaged areas. Accuracy was assessed by comparing model calibration to measured streamflow. Calibration and validation of the Sacramento River ranged from "good" to "very good" performance based upon a "goodness-of-fit" statistical guideline. Model calibration to measured sediment loads were underestimated on average by 39% for the Sacramento River, and model calibration to suspended sediment concentrations were underestimated on average by 22% for the Sacramento River. Sediment loads showed a slight decreasing trend from 1958-2008 and was significant (p < 0.0025) in the lower 50% of stream flows. Hypothetical climate change scenarios were developed using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). Several wet and dry scenarios coupled with temperature increases were imposed on the historical base conditions to evaluate sensitivity of streamflow and sediment on potential changes in climate. Wet scenarios showed an increase of 9.7 - 17.5% in streamflow, a 7.6 - 17.5% increase in runoff, and a 30 - 93% increase in sediment loads. The dry scenarios showed a roughly 5% decrease in flow and runoff, and a 16 - 18% decrease in sediment loads. The base hydrology was most sensitive to a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius and an increase in storm intensity and frequency. The complete calibrated HSPF model will use future climate scenarios to make projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the SFBD from 2000-2100.

Finite-element three-dimensional ground-water (FE3DGW) flow model - formulation, program listings and users' manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gupta, S.K.; Cole, C.R.; Bond, F.W.

1979-12-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. Hydrologic and transport models are available at several levels of complexity or sophistication. Model selection and use are determined by the quantity and quality of input data. Model development under AEGIS and related programs provides three levels of hydrologic models, two levels of transport models, and one level of dose models (with several separate models). This document consists of the description of the FE3DGW (Finite Element, Three-Dimensional Groundwater) Hydrologic model third level (high complexity) three-dimensional, finite element approach (Galerkin formulation) for saturated groundwater flow.« less

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

Sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration and simulated flow to varying meteorological inputs, Salt Creek watershed, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitbeck, David E.

2006-01-01

The Lamoreux Potential Evapotranspiration (LXPET) Program computes potential evapotranspiration (PET) using inputs from four different meteorological sources: temperature, dewpoint, wind speed, and solar radiation. PET and the same four meteorological inputs are used with precipitation data in the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate streamflow in the Salt Creek watershed, DuPage County, Illinois. Streamflows from HSPF are routed with the Full Equations (FEQ) model to determine water-surface elevations. Consequently, variations in meteorological inputs have potential to propagate through many calculations. Sensitivity of PET to variation was simulated by increasing the meteorological input values by 20, 40, and 60 percent and evaluating the change in the calculated PET. Increases in temperatures produced the greatest percent changes, followed by increases in solar radiation, dewpoint, and then wind speed. Additional sensitivity of PET was considered for shifts in input temperatures and dewpoints by absolute differences of ?10, ?20, and ?30 degrees Fahrenheit (degF). Again, changes in input temperatures produced the greatest differences in PET. Sensitivity of streamflow simulated by HSPF was evaluated for 20-percent increases in meteorological inputs. These simulations showed that increases in temperature produced the greatest change in flow. Finally, peak water-surface elevations for nine storm events were compared among unmodified meteorological inputs and inputs with values predicted 6, 24, and 48 hours preceding the simulated peak. Results of this study can be applied to determine how errors specific to a hydrologic system will affect computations of system streamflow and water-surface elevations.

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

From Process Models to Decision Making: The Use of Data Mining Techniques for Developing Effect Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrads, P. A.; Roehl, E. A.

2010-12-01

Natural-resource managers face the difficult problem of controlling the interactions between hydrologic and man-made systems in ways that preserve resources while optimally meeting the needs of disparate stakeholders. Finding success depends on obtaining and employing detailed scientific knowledge about the cause-effect relations that govern the physics of these hydrologic systems. This knowledge is most credible when derived from large field-based datasets that encompass the wide range of variability in the parameters of interest. The means of converting data into knowledge of the hydrologic system often involves developing computer models that predict the consequences of alternative management practices to guide resource managers towards the best path forward. Complex hydrologic systems are typically modeled using computer programs that implement traditional, generalized, physical equations, which are calibrated to match the field data as closely as possible. This type of model commonly is limited in terms of demonstrable predictive accuracy, development time, and cost. The science of data mining presents a powerful complement to physics-based models. Data mining is a relatively new science that assists in converting large databases into knowledge and is uniquely able to leverage the real-time, multivariate data now being collected for hydrologic systems. In side-by-side comparisons with state-of-the-art physics-based hydrologic models, the authors have found data-mining solutions have been substantially more accurate, less time consuming to develop, and embeddable into spreadsheets and sophisticated decision support systems (DSS), making them easy to use by regulators and stakeholders. Three data-mining applications will be presented that demonstrate how data-mining techniques can be applied to existing environmental databases to address regional concerns of long-term consequences. In each case, data were transformed into information, and ultimately, into knowledge. In each case, DSSs were developed that facilitated the use of simulation models and analysis of model output to a broad range of end users with various technical abilities. When compared to other modeling projects of comparable scope and complexity, these DSSs were able to pass through needed technical reviews much more quickly. Unlike programs such as finite-element flow models, DSSs are by design open systems that are easy to use and readily disseminated directly to decision makers. The DSSs provide direct coupling of predictive models with the real-time databases that drive them, graphical user interfaces for point-and-click program control, and streaming displays of numerical and graphical results so that users can monitor the progress of long-term simulations. Customizations for specific problems include numerical optimization loops that invert predictive models; integrations with a three-dimensional finite-element flow model, GIS packages, and a plant ecology model; and color contouring of simulation output data.

Progress report on daily flow-routing simulation for the Carson River, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, G.W.

1996-01-01

A physically based flow-routing model using Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was constructed for modeling streamflow in the Carson River at daily time intervals as part of the Truckee-Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Daily streamflow data for water years 1978-92 for the mainstem river, tributaries, and irrigation ditches from the East Fork Carson River near Markleeville and West Fork Carson River at Woodfords down to the mainstem Carson River at Fort Churchill upstream from Lahontan Reservoir were obtained from several agencies and were compiled into a comprehensive data base. No previous physically based flow-routing model of the Carson River has incorporated multi-agency streamflow data into a single data base and simulated flow at a daily time interval. Where streamflow data were unavailable or incomplete, hydrologic techniques were used to estimate some flows. For modeling purposes, the Carson River was divided into six segments, which correspond to those used in the Alpine Decree that governs water rights along the river. Hydraulic characteristics were defined for 48 individual stream reaches based on cross-sectional survey data obtained from field surveys and previous studies. Simulation results from the model were compared with available observed and estimated streamflow data. Model testing demonstrated that hydraulic characteristics of the Carson River are adequately represented in the models for a range of flow regimes. Differences between simulated and observed streamflow result mostly from inadequate data characterizing inflow and outflow from the river. Because irrigation return flows are largely unknown, irrigation return flow percentages were used as a calibration parameter to minimize differences between observed and simulated streamflows. Observed and simulated streamflow were compared for daily periods for the full modeled length of the Carson River and for two major subreaches modeled with more detailed input data. Hydrographs and statistics presented in this report describe these differences. A sensitivity analysis of four estimated components of the hydrologic system evaluated which components were significant in the model. Estimated ungaged tributary streamflow is not a significant component of the model during low runoff, but is significant during high runoff. The sensitivity analysis indicates that changes in the estimated irrigation diversion and estimated return flow creates a noticeable change in the statistics. The modeling for this study is preliminary. Results of the model are constrained by current availability and accuracy of observed hydrologic data. Several inflows and outflows of the Carson River are not described by time-series data and therefore are not represented in the model.

Holistic irrigation water management approach based on stochastic soil water dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh, H.; Mousavi, S. J.

2012-04-01

Appreciating the essential gap between fundamental unsaturated zone transport processes and soil and water management due to low effectiveness of some of monitoring and modeling approaches, this study presents a mathematical programming model for irrigation management optimization based on stochastic soil water dynamics. The model is a nonlinear non-convex program with an economic objective function to address water productivity and profitability aspects in irrigation management through optimizing irrigation policy. Utilizing an optimization-simulation method, the model includes an eco-hydrological integrated simulation model consisting of an explicit stochastic module of soil moisture dynamics in the crop-root zone with shallow water table effects, a conceptual root-zone salt balance module, and the FAO crop yield module. Interdependent hydrology of soil unsaturated and saturated zones is treated in a semi-analytical approach in two steps. At first step analytical expressions are derived for the expected values of crop yield, total water requirement and soil water balance components assuming fixed level for shallow water table, while numerical Newton-Raphson procedure is employed at the second step to modify value of shallow water table level. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, combined with the eco-hydrological simulation model, has been used to solve the non-convex program. Benefiting from semi-analytical framework of the simulation model, the optimization-simulation method with significantly better computational performance compared to a numerical Mote-Carlo simulation-based technique has led to an effective irrigation management tool that can contribute to bridging the gap between vadose zone theory and water management practice. In addition to precisely assessing the most influential processes at a growing season time scale, one can use the developed model in large scale systems such as irrigation districts and agricultural catchments. Accordingly, the model has been applied in Dasht-e-Abbas and Ein-khosh Fakkeh Irrigation Districts (DAID and EFID) of the Karkheh Basin in southwest of Iran. The area suffers from the water scarcity problem and therefore the trade-off between the level of deficit and economical profit should be assessed. Based on the results, while the maximum net benefit has been obtained for the stress-avoidance (SA) irrigation policy, the highest water profitability, defined by economical net benefit gained from unit irrigation water volume application, has been resulted when only about 60% of water used in the SA policy is applied.

Large-scale experimental technology with remote sensing in land surface hydrology and meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brutsaert, Wilfried; Schmugge, Thomas J.; Sellers, Piers J.; Hall, Forrest G.

1988-01-01

Two field experiments to study atmospheric and land surface processes and their interactions are summarized. The Hydrologic-Atmospheric Pilot Experiment, which tested techniques for measuring evaporation, soil moisture storage, and runoff at scales of about 100 km, was conducted over a 100 X 100 km area in France from mid-1985 to early 1987. The first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program field experiment was conducted in 1987 to develop and use relationships between current satellite measurements and hydrologic, climatic, and biophysical variables at the earth's surface and to validate these relationships with ground truth. This experiment also validated surface parameterization methods for simulation models that describe surface processes from the scale of vegetation leaves up to scales appropriate to satellite remote sensing.

Simulated natural hydrologic regime of an intermountain playa conservation site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanderson, J.S.; Kotliar, N.B.; Steingraeber, D.A.; Browne, C.

2008-01-01

An intermountain playa wetland preserve in Colorado's San Luis Valley was studied to assess how its current hydrologic function compares to its natural hydrologic regime. Current hydrologic conditions were quantified, and on-site effects of off-site water use were assessed. A water-budget model was developed to simulate an unaltered (i.e., natural) hydrologic regime, and simulated natural conditions were compared to observed conditions. From 1998-2002, observed stream inflows accounted for ??? 80% of total annual water inputs. No ground water discharged to the wetland. Evapotranspiration (ET) accounted for ??? 69% of total annual water loss. Simulated natural conditions differed substantially from current altered conditions with respect to depth, variability, and frequency of flooding. During 1998-2002, observed monthly mean surface-water depth was 65% lower than under simulated natural conditions. Observed monthly variability in water depth range from 129% greater (May) to 100% less (September and October) than simulated. As observed, the wetland dried completely (i.e., was ephemeral) in all years; as simulated, the wetland was ephemeral in two of five years. For the period 1915-2002, the simulated wetland was inundated continuously for as long as 16 years and nine months. The large differences in observed and simulated surface-water dynamics resulted from differences between altered and simulated unaltered stream inflows. The maximum and minimum annual total stream inflows observed from 1998-2005 were 3.1 ?? 106 m3 and 0 m3, respectively, versus 15.5 ?? 106 m3 and 3.2 ?? 106 m3 under simulated natural conditions from 1915-2002. The maximum simulated inflow was 484% greater than observed. These data indicate that the current hydrologic regime of this intermountain playa differs significantly from its natural hydrologic regime, which has important implications for planning and assessing conservation success. ?? 2008, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources of the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, Sonoma County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, Linda R.; Nishikawa, Tracy

2014-01-01

Water managers in the Santa Rosa Plain face the challenge of meeting increasing water demand with a combination of Russian River water, which has uncertainties in its future availability; local groundwater resources; and ongoing and expanding recycled water and water from other conservation programs. To address this challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency, the cities of Cotati, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Sebastopol, the town of Windsor, the California American Water Company, and the County of Sonoma, undertook development of a fully coupled groundwater and surface-water model to better understand and to help manage the hydrologic resources in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed. The purpose of this report is to (1) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, referred to as the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model; (2) present results from simulation of the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model, including water budgets, recharge distributions, streamflow, and the effect of pumping on water-budget components; and (3) present the results from using the model to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of climate change and variability without pumpage for water years 2011-99 and with projected pumpage for water years 2011-40.

Removing Hydrology Signals to Determine Ground Motion at the Apache Point Lunar Laser Ranging Site, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossley, D. J.; Borsa, A. A.; Murphy, T.

2017-12-01

We continue the analysis of superconducting gravimeter (SG) and GPS data at Apache Point Observatory (APO) as part of the astrophysical effort to reduce LLR errors to the mm level. With 8 years of data accumulated, the main impediment to getting benefit from the SG data is the assessment of the hydrology signal that arises mainly from the attraction of local water masses close to the site. Traditional SG processing attempts to remove as much signal as possible from the loading and attraction contributions, but we are limited at APO because here is no hydrology ground truth. Nevertheless, we produce a gravity residual that corresponds to some extent with the rather noisy vertical GPS data from Plate Boundary Site PB07 close to Sunspot observatory 2 km from APO. The main goal of this paper, apart from updating the gravity and GPS correction using recent models, is to construct simulated SG and GPS time series from the synthetic source functions - ground uplift, hydrology attraction and loading - and to perform an inversion to see what can be recovered of the vertical ground motion. The simulation will also include a first look at the effect of this synthetic local data on the current Planetary Ephemeris Program solution for the lunar distance.

User's guide to SSARRMENU

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.; Le, Thanh

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Pierce County Department of Public Works, Washington, has developed an operational tool called the Puyallup Flood-Alert System to alert users of impending floods in the Puyallup River Basin. The system acquires and incorporates meteorological and hydrological data into the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) hydrologic flow-routing model to simulate floods in the Puyallup River Basin. SSARRMENU is the user-interactive graphical interface between the user, the input and output data, and the SSARR model. In a companion cooperative project with Pierce County, the SSARR model for the Puyallup River Basin was calibrated and validated. The calibrated model is accessed through SSARRMENU, which has been specifically programed for the Puyallup River and the needs of Pierce County. SSARRMENU automates the retrieval of data from ADAPS (Automated DAta Processing System, the U.S. Geological Survey?s real-time hydrologic database), formats the data for use with SSARR, initiates SSARR model runs, displays alerts for impending floods, and provides utilities to display the simulated and observed data. An on-screen map of the basin and a series of menu items provide the user wi

Users manual for an expert system (HSPEXP) for calibration of the hydrological simulation program; Fortran

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lumb, A.M.; McCammon, R.B.; Kittle, J.L.

1994-01-01

Expert system software was developed to assist less experienced modelers with calibration of a watershed model and to facilitate the interaction between the modeler and the modeling process not provided by mathematical optimization. A prototype was developed with artificial intelligence software tools, a knowledge engineer, and two domain experts. The manual procedures used by the domain experts were identified and the prototype was then coded by the knowledge engineer. The expert system consists of a set of hierarchical rules designed to guide the calibration of the model through a systematic evaluation of model parameters. When the prototype was completed and tested, it was rewritten for portability and operational use and was named HSPEXP. The watershed model Hydrological Simulation Program--Fortran (HSPF) is used in the expert system. This report is the users manual for HSPEXP and contains a discussion of the concepts and detailed steps and examples for using the software. The system has been tested on watersheds in the States of Washington and Maryland, and the system correctly identified the model parameters to be adjusted and the adjustments led to improved calibration.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

Simulating hydrological processes of a typical small mountainous catchment in Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y. P.; Bai, Z.; Fu, Q.; Pan, S.; Zhu, C.

2017-12-01

Water cycle of small watersheds with seasonal/permanent frozen soil and snow pack in Tibetan Plateau is seriously affected by climate change. The objective of this study is to find out how much and in what way the frozen soil and snow pack will influence the hydrology of small mountainous catchments in cold regions and how can the performance of simulation by a distributed hydrological model be improved. The Dong catchment, a small catchment located in Tibetan Plateau, is used as a case study. Two measurement stations are set up to collect basic meteorological and hydrological data for the modeling purpose. Annual and interannual variations of runoff indices are first analyzed based on historic data series. The sources of runoff in dry periods and wet periods are analyzed respectively. Then, a distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) is adopted to simulate the hydrological process of Dong catchment based on limited data set. Global sensitivity analysis is applied to help determine the important processes of the catchment. Based on sensitivity analysis results, the Epsilon-Dominance Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) is finally added into the hydrological model to calibrate the hydrological model in a multi-objective way and analyze the performance of DHSVM model. The performance of simulation is evaluated with several evaluation indices. The final results show that frozen soil and snow pack do play an important role in hydrological processes in cold mountainous region, in particular in dry periods without precipitation, while in wet periods precipitation is often the main source of runoff. The results also show that although the DHSVM hydrological model has the potential to model the hydrology well in small mountainous catchments with very limited data in Tibetan Plateau, the simulation of hydrology in dry periods is not very satisfactory due to the model's insufficiency in simulating seasonal frozen soil.

Evaluation of uncertainty in capturing the spatial variability and magnitudes of extreme hydrological events for the uMngeni catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton Toucher, Michele L.; van Garderen, Emma Archer

2018-02-01

Downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are used to forecast climate change and provide information used as input for hydrological modelling. Given that our understanding of climate change points towards an increasing frequency, timing and intensity of extreme hydrological events, there is therefore the need to assess the ability of downscaled GCMs to capture these extreme hydrological events. Extreme hydrological events play a significant role in regulating the structure and function of rivers and associated ecosystems. In this study, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method was adapted to assess the ability of simulated streamflow (using downscaled GCMs (dGCMs)) in capturing extreme river dynamics (high and low flows), as compared to streamflow simulated using historical climate data from 1960 to 2000. The ACRU hydrological model was used for simulating streamflow for the 13 water management units of the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Statistically downscaled climate models obtained from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town were used as input for the ACRU Model. Results indicated that, high flows and extreme high flows (one in ten year high flows/large flood events) were poorly represented both in terms of timing, frequency and magnitude. Simulated streamflow using dGCMs data also captures more low flows and extreme low flows (one in ten year lowest flows) than that captured in streamflow simulated using historical climate data. The overall conclusion was that although dGCMs output can reasonably be used to simulate overall streamflow, it performs poorly when simulating extreme high and low flows. Streamflow simulation from dGCMs must thus be used with caution in hydrological applications, particularly for design hydrology, as extreme high and low flows are still poorly represented. This, arguably calls for the further improvement of downscaling techniques in order to generate climate data more relevant and useful for hydrological applications such as in design hydrology. Nevertheless, the availability of downscaled climatic output provide the potential of exploring climate model uncertainties in different hydro climatic regions at local scales where forcing data is often less accessible but more accurate at finer spatial scales and with adequate spatial detail.

Simulation of streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-coal-mined basins in Fayette County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sams, J. I.; Witt, E. C.

1995-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport in two surface-mined basins of Fayette County, Pa. Hydrologic data from the Stony Fork Basin (0.93 square miles) was used to calibrate HSPF parameters. The calibrated parameters were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin (8.83 square miles) to evaluate the transfer value of model parameters. The results of this investigation provide information to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Mining and Reclamation, regarding the value of the simulated hydrologic data for use in cumulative hydrologic-impact assessments of surface-mined basins. The calibration period was October 1, 1985, through September 30, 1988 (water years 1986-88). The simulated data were representative of the observed data from the Stony Fork Basin. Mean simulated streamflow was 1.64 cubic feet per second compared to measured streamflow of 1.58 cubic feet per second for the 3-year period. The difference between the observed and simulated peak stormflow ranged from 4.0 to 59.7 percent for 12 storms. The simulated sediment load for the 1987 water year was 127.14 tons (0.21 ton per acre), which compares to a measured sediment load of 147.09 tons (0.25 ton per acre). The total simulated suspended-sediment load for the 3-year period was 538.2 tons (0.30 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 467.61 tons (0.26 ton per acre per year). The model was verified by comparing observed and simulated data from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 1989. The results obtained were comparable to those from the calibration period. The simulated mean daily discharge was representative of the range of data observed from the basin and of the frequency with which specific discharges were equalled or exceeded. The calibrated and verified parameters from the Stony Fork model were applied to an HSPF model of the Poplar Run Basin. The two basins are in a similar physical setting. Data from October 1, 1987, through September 30, 1989, were used to evaluate the Poplar Run model. In general, the results from the Poplar Run model were comparable to those obtained from the Stony Fork model. The difference between observed and simulated total streamflow was 1.1 percent for the 2-year period. The mean annual streamflow simulated by the Poplar Run model was 18.3 cubic feet per second. This compares to an observed streamflow of 18.15 cubic feet per second. For the 2-year period, the simulated sediment load was 2,754 tons (0.24 ton per acre per year), which compares to a measured sediment load of 3,051.2 tons (0.27 ton per acre per year) for the Poplar Run Basin. Cumulative frequency-distribution curves of the observed and simulated streamflow compared well. The comparison between observed and simulated data improved as the time span increased. Simulated annual means and totals were more representative of the observed data than hourly data used in comparing storm events. The structure and organization of the HSPF model facilitated the simulation of a wide range of hydrologic processes. The simulation results from this investigation indicate that model parameters may be transferred to ungaged basins to generate representative hydrologic data through modeling techniques.

Coupling of Noah-MP and the High Resolution CI-WATER ADHydro Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, H. A.; Goncalves Pureza, L.; Ogden, F. L.; Steinke, R. C.

2014-12-01

ADHydro is a physics-based, high-resolution, distributed hydrological model suitable for simulating large watersheds in a massively parallel computing environment. It simulates important processes such as: rainfall and infiltration, snowfall and snowmelt in complex terrain, vegetation and evapotranspiration, soil heat flux and freezing, overland flow, channel flow, groundwater flow and water management. For the vegetation and evapotranspiration processes, ADHydro uses the validated community land surface model (LSM) Noah-MP. Noah-MP uses multiple options for key land-surface hydrology and was developed to facilitate climate predictions with physically based ensembles. This presentation discusses the lessons learned in coupling Noah-MP to ADHydro. Noah-MP is delivered with a main driver program and not as a library with a clear interface to be called from other codes. This required some investigation to determine the correct functions to call and the appropriate parameter values. ADHydro runs Noah-MP as a point process on each mesh element and provides initialization and forcing data for each element. Modeling data are acquired from various sources including the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and internal ADHydro simulation states. Despite these challenges in coupling Noah-MP to ADHydro, the use of Noah-MP provides the benefits of a supported community code.

Evaluation of Hydrologic Simulations Developed Using Multi-Model Synthesis and Remotely-Sensed Data within a Portfolio of Calibration Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Markstrom, S. L.

2016-12-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the conterminous United States (CONUS). As many stream reaches in the CONUS are either not gaged, or are substantially impacted by water use or flow regulation, ancillary information must be used to determine reasonable parameter estimations for streamflow simulations. Hydrologic models for 1,576 gaged watersheds across the CONUS were developed to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations linking physically-based hydrologic models with remotely-sensed data products (i.e. snow water equivalent). Initially, the physically-based models were calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison across multiple calibration strategy tests. In addition, not all ancillary datasets are appropriate for application to all parts of the CONUS (e.g. snow water equivalent in the southeastern U.S., where snow is a rarity). As it is not expected that any one data product or model simulation will be sufficient for representing hydrologic behavior across the entire CONUS, a systematic evaluation of which data products improve hydrologic simulations for various regions across the CONUS was performed. The resulting portfolio of calibration strategies can be used to guide selection of an appropriate combination of modeled and measured information for hydrologic model development and calibration. In addition, these calibration strategies have been developed to be flexible so that new data products can be assimilated. This analysis provides a foundation to understand how well models work when sufficient streamflow data are not available and could be used to further inform hydrologic model parameter development for ungaged areas.

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.

Stimulation from Simulation? A Teaching Model of Hillslope Hydrology for Use on Microcomputers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burt, Tim; Butcher, Dave

1986-01-01

The design and use of a simple computer model which simulates a hillslope hydrology is described in a teaching context. The model shows a relatively complex environmental system can be constructed on the basis of a simple but realistic theory, thus allowing students to simulate the hydrological response of real hillslopes. (Author/TRS)

Physics-based simulations of the impacts forest management practices have on hydrologic response

Treesearch

Adrianne Carr; Keith Loague

2012-01-01

The impacts of logging on near-surface hydrologic response at the catchment and watershed scales were examined quantitatively using numerical simulation. The simulations were conducted with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) for the North Fork of Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed, located near Fort Bragg, California. InHM is a comprehensive physics-based...

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques.

PubMed

Chung, Eun-Sung; Lee, Kil Seong

2009-03-01

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.

Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

2011-01-01

Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

The Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD): A TOPMODEL application developed within the Modular Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, R. M.; Wolock, D. M.; Linard, J. I.; Wieczorek, M. E.

2004-12-01

Process-based flow and transport simulation models can help increase understanding of how hydrologic flow paths affect biogeochemical mixing and reactions in watersheds. This presentation describes the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD), a new model designed to simulate water and chemical transport in both pristine and agricultural watersheds. WEBMOD simulates streamflow using TOPMODEL algorithms and also simulates irrigation, canopy interception, snowpack, and tile-drain flow; these are important processes for successful multi-year simulations of agricultural watersheds. In addition, the hydrologic components of the model are linked to the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) geochemical model PHREEQC such that solute chemistry for the hillslopes and streams also are computed. Model development, execution, and calibration take place within the USGS Modular Modeling System. WEBMOD is being validated at ten research watersheds. Five of these watersheds are nearly pristine and comprise the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budget (WEBB) Program field sites: Loch Vale, Colorado; Trout Lake, Wisconsin; Sleepers River, Vermont; Panola Mountain, Georgia; and the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. The remaining five watersheds contain intensely cultivated fields being studied by USGS National Water Quality Assessment Program: Merced River, California; Granger Drain, Washington; Maple Creek, Nebraska; Sugar Creek, Indiana; and Morgan Creek, Delaware. Model calibration improved understanding of observed variations in soil moisture, solute concentrations, and stream discharge at the five WEBB watersheds and is now being set up to simulate the processes at the five agricultural watersheds that are now ending their first year of data collection.

A Socio-Hydrological Model of the Voluntary Urban Water Conservation Behavior during Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangwan, N.; Eisma, J. A.; Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.

2016-12-01

Several cities across the globe are increasingly struggling to meet the water demands of their population. By 2050, nearly 160 million urban dwellers are likely to face perennial water shortage due to ever rising population numbers and climate change. As observed once again during recent drought in California, voluntary water conservation is a key approach for managing urban water availability during periods of constrained supply. It relies on behavioral adaptation that is critical for long-term reductions in water use and building drought resilient communities. Strong interdependencies between human group behavior and regional hydrology in this context entail that the two components be coupled together in a socio-hydrology model to fully understand the dynamics of urban water systems. This work proposes a conceptual framework for one such model and simulates the dynamics of a voluntary conservation program in Marin Municipal Water District, California using dynamic systems modeling approach. Through this model, we plan to assess the effects of different social factors (such as social concern and conformist tendencies) and climato-hydrological conditions (viz. storage levels and weather forecast) on the trajectory of a voluntary conservation program. Our preliminary results have indicated several `tipping points' which can be capitalized on by policy makers to boost conservation at low social costs.

Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Andrew W; Leung, Lai R; Sridhar, V

Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year retrospective (1975–1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the implications of the comparison for a future (2040–2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored. The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical downscaling methods – linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregationmore » (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) – each applied to both PCM output directly (at T42 spatial resolution), and after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM – at ½-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation, and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic model with observations. The most significant findings are that the BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation, when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations. Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless, neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario, only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able to produce hydrologically plausible results. With the BCSD method, the RCM-derived hydrology was more sensitive to climate change than the PCM-derived hydrology.« less

Regional Aquifer-System Analysis— Appalachian Valley and Piedmont

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2004-01-01

The Regional Aquifer-System Analysis Program, RASA, represents a systematic effort to study a number of the Nation’s most important aquifer systems, which, in aggregate, underlie much of the country and which represent an important component of the Nation’s total water supply. In general, the boundaries of these studies are identified by the hydrologic extent of each system and, accordingly, transcend the political subdivisions to which investigations have often arbitrarily been limited in the past. The broad objective for each study is to assemble geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical information, to analyze and develop an understanding of the system, and to develop predictive capabilities that will contribute to the effective management of the system. The use of computer simulation is an important element of the RASA studies to develop an understanding of the natural, undisturbed hydrologic system and the changes brought about in it by human activities and to provide a means of predicting the regional effects of future pumping or other stresses.The final interpretive results of the RASA Program are presented in a series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers that describe the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of each regional aquifer system. Each study within the RASA Program is assigned a single Professional Paper number beginning with Professional Paper 1400.This paper, Professional Paper 1422, represents the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis— Appalachian Valley and Piedmont. It is published as several individual volumes over several years.

Improving Hydrological Simulations by Incorporating GRACE Data for Parameter Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological model parameters are commonly calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the modeled hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. We constructed a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations, with the aim of improving the parameterizations of hydrological models. The multi-objective calibration scheme was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme, which is based only on streamflow observations. Two monthly hydrological models were employed on 22 Chinese catchments with different hydroclimatic conditions. The model evaluation was performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and evapotranspiraiton (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. In addition, the improvements of TWSC and ET simulations were more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints besides streamflow observations in the parameter estimation to improve the performances of hydrological models.

Simulation of wetlands forest vegetation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phipps, R.L.

1979-01-01

A computer program, SWAMP, was designed to simulate the effects of flood frequency and depth to water table on southern wetlands forest vegetation dynamics. By incorporating these hydrologic characteristics into the model, forest vegetation and vegetation dynamics can be simulated. The model, based on data from the White River National Wildlife Refuge near De Witt, Arkansas, "grows" individual trees on a 20 x 20-m plot taking into account effects on the tree growth of flooding, depth to water table, shade tolerance, overtopping and crowding, and probability of death and reproduction. A potential application of the model is illustrated with simulations of tree fruit production following flood-control implementation and lumbering. ?? 1979.

Hydrologic Simulation in Mediterranean flood prone Watersheds using high-resolution quality data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Alexakis, Dimitrios; Pappa, Polixeni; Tsanis, Ioannis

2015-04-01

Flooding is a significant threat causing lots of inconveniencies in several societies, worldwide. The fact that the climatic change is already happening, increases the flooding risk, which is no longer a substantial menace to several societies and their economies. The improvement of spatial-resolution and accuracy of the topography and land use data due to remote sensing techniques could provide integrated flood inundation simulations. In this work hydrological analysis of several historic flood events in Mediterranean flood prone watersheds (island of Crete/Greece) takes place. Satellite images of high resolution are elaborated. A very high resolution (VHR) digital elevation model (DEM) is produced from a GeoEye-1 0.5-m-resolution satellite stereo pair and is used for floodplain management and mapping applications such as watershed delineation and river cross-section extraction. Sophisticated classification algorithms are implemented for improving Land Use/ Land Cover maps accuracy. In addition, soil maps are updated with means of Radar satellite images. The above high-resolution data are innovatively used to simulate and validate several historical flood events in Mediterranean watersheds, which have experienced severe flooding in the past. The hydrologic/hydraulic models used for flood inundation simulation in this work are HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. The Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) approach is implemented to account for the effect of LULC and soil on the hydrologic response of the catchment. The use of high resolution data provides detailed validation results and results of high precision, accordingly. Furthermore, the meteorological forecasting data, which are also combined to the simulation model results, manage the development of an integrated flood forecasting and early warning system tool, which is capable of confronting or even preventing this imminent risk. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the "ARISTEIA II" Action ("REINFORCE" program) of the "Operational Education and Life Long Learning programme" and is co-funded by the European Social Fund (ESF) and National Resources.

Parallel computing method for simulating hydrological processesof large rivers under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Chen, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate change is one of the proverbial global environmental problems in the world.Climate change has altered the watershed hydrological processes in time and space distribution, especially in worldlarge rivers.Watershed hydrological process simulation based on physically based distributed hydrological model can could have better results compared with the lumped models.However, watershed hydrological process simulation includes large amount of calculations, especially in large rivers, thus needing huge computing resources that may not be steadily available for the researchers or at high expense, this seriously restricted the research and application. To solve this problem, the current parallel method are mostly parallel computing in space and time dimensions.They calculate the natural features orderly thatbased on distributed hydrological model by grid (unit, a basin) from upstream to downstream.This articleproposes ahigh-performancecomputing method of hydrological process simulation with high speedratio and parallel efficiency.It combinedthe runoff characteristics of time and space of distributed hydrological model withthe methods adopting distributed data storage, memory database, distributed computing, parallel computing based on computing power unit.The method has strong adaptability and extensibility,which means it canmake full use of the computing and storage resources under the condition of limited computing resources, and the computing efficiency can be improved linearly with the increase of computing resources .This method can satisfy the parallel computing requirements ofhydrological process simulation in small, medium and large rivers.

Estimation of dynamic load of mercury in a river with BASINS-HSPF model

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; John Higman; Jeff Hatten

2012-01-01

Purpose Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element and a pervasive toxic pollutant. This study investigated the dynamic loads of Hg from the Cedar-Ortega Rivers watershed into the Lower St. Johns River (LSJR), Florida, USA, using the better assessment science integrating point and nonpoint sources (BASINS)-hydrologic simulation program - FORTRAN (HSPF) model....

Hydrologic enforcement of lidar DEMs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poppenga, Sandra K.; Worstell, Bruce B.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Brock, John C.; Evans, Gayla A.; Heidemann, H. Karl

2014-01-01

Hydrologic-enforcement (hydro-enforcement) of light detection and ranging (lidar)-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) modifies the elevations of artificial impediments (such as road fills or railroad grades) to simulate how man-made drainage structures such as culverts or bridges allow continuous downslope flow. Lidar-derived DEMs contain an extremely high level of topographic detail; thus, hydro-enforced lidar-derived DEMs are essential to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for complex modeling of riverine flow. The USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program (CMGP) is integrating hydro-enforced lidar-derived DEMs (land elevation) and lidar-derived bathymetry (water depth) to enhance storm surge modeling in vulnerable coastal zones.

An operational GLS model for hydrologic regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Stedinger, J.R.

1989-01-01

Recent Monte Carlo studies have documented the value of generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to estimate empirical relationships between streamflow statistics and physiographic basin characteristics. This paper presents a number of extensions of the GLS method that deal with realities and complexities of regional hydrologic data sets that were not addressed in the simulation studies. These extensions include: (1) a more realistic model of the underlying model errors; (2) smoothed estimates of cross correlation of flows; (3) procedures for including historical flow data; (4) diagnostic statistics describing leverage and influence for GLS regression; and (5) the formulation of a mathematical program for evaluating future gaging activities. ?? 1989.

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers.The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are considered within the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated that for all hydrologic conditions scenarios, the Lago El Guineo Dam would not experience overtopping. For the dam breach hydraulic analysis, failure by piping was the selected hypothetical failure mode for the Lago El Guineo Dam.Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events indicated peak discharges below the dam of 1,342.43 and 1,434.69 cubic meters per second, respectively. Dam failure during the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge directly downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,183.12 cubic meters per second. Dam failure during sunny-day conditions (no precipitation) produced a peak discharge at Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,015.31 cubic meters per second assuming the initial water-surface elevation was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation.The results of the hydraulic analysis indicate that the flood would extend to many inhabited areas along the stream banks from the Lago El Guineo Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande as a result of the simulated failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Low-lying regions in the vicinity of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, are among the regions that would be most affected by failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Effects of the flood control (levee) structure constructed in 2000 to provide protection to the low-lying populated areas of Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, were considered in the hydraulic analysis of dam failure. The results indicate that overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events. The levee was not overtopped during dam failure scenarios under the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event or sunny-day conditions.

Hydrologic, Hydraulic, and Flood Analyses of the Blackberry Creek Watershed, Kendall County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Soong, David T.; Hamblen, Christopher S.

2007-01-01

Results of the hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kendall County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains cover approximately 3,699 and 3,762 acres of land, respectively. On the basis of land-cover data for 2003, most of the land in the flood plains was cropland and residential land. Although many acres of residential land were included in the flood plain, this land was mostly lawns, with 25 homes within the 100-year flood plain, and 41 homes within the 500-year flood plain in the 2003 aerial photograph. This report describes the data collection activities to refine the hydrologic and hydraulic models used in an earlier study of the Kane County part of the Blackberry Creek watershed and to extend the flood-frequency analysis through water year 2003. The results of the flood-hazard analysis are presented in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to simulate continuous water movement through various land-use patterns in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using observations during three storms at two crest-stage gages and the U.S. Geological Survey streamflowgaging station near Yorkville. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling ofmore » hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.« less

Testing the effects of in-stream sediment sources and sinks on simulated watershed sediment yield using the coupled U.S. Army Corps of Engineers GSSHA Model and SEDLIB Sediment Transport Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floyd, I. E.; Downer, C. W.; Brown, G.; Pradhan, N. R.

2017-12-01

The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model is the US Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE)'s only fully coupled overland/in-stream sediment transport model. While the overland sediment transport formulation in GSSHA is considered state of the art, the existing in-stream sediment transport formulation is less robust. A major omission in the formulation of the existing GSSHA in-stream model is the lack of in-stream sources of fine materials. In this effort, we enhanced the in-stream sediment transport capacity of GSSHA by linking GSSHA to the SEDLIB sediment transport library. SEDLIB was developed at the Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) under the System Wide Water Resources Program (SWWRP) and Flood and Coastal (F&C) research program. It is designed to provide a library of sediment flux formulations for hydraulic and hydrologic models, such as GSSHA. This new version of GSSHA, with the updated in-stream sediment transport simulation capability afforded by the linkage to SEDLIB, was tested in against observations in an experimental watershed that had previously been used as a test bed for GSSHA. The results show a significant improvement in the ability to model in-stream sources of fine sediment. This improved capability will broaden the applicability of GSSHA to larger watersheds and watersheds with complex sediment dynamics, such as those subjected to fire hydrology.

Optimization of urban water supply portfolios combining infrastructure capacity expansion and water use decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.

2015-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.

Calibration parameters used to simulate streamflow from application of the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN Model (HSPF) to mountainous basins containing coal mines in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkins, John T.; Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Paybins, Katherine S.

2005-01-01

This report presents the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN Model (HSPF) parameters for eight basins in the coal-mining region of West Virginia. The magnitude and characteristics of model parameters from this study will assist users of HSPF in simulating streamflow at other basins in the coal-mining region of West Virginia. The parameter for nominal capacity of the upper-zone storage, UZSN, increased from south to north. The increase in UZSN with the increase in basin latitude could be due to decreasing slopes, decreasing rockiness of the soils, and increasing soil depths from south to north. A special action was given to the parameter for fraction of ground-water inflow that flows to inactive ground water, DEEPFR. The basis for this special action was related to the seasonal movement of the water table and transpiration from trees. The models were most sensitive to DEEPFR and the parameter for interception storage capacity, CEPSC. The models were also fairly sensitive to the parameter for an index representing the infiltration capacity of the soil, INFILT; the parameter for indicating the behavior of the ground-water recession flow, KVARY; the parameter for the basic ground-water recession rate, AGWRC; the parameter for nominal capacity of the upper zone storage, UZSN; the parameter for the interflow inflow, INTFW; the parameter for the interflow recession constant, IRC; and the parameter for lower zone evapotranspiration, LZETP.

THE DOWNSLOPE PROPAGATION OF A DISTURBANCE IN A FORESTED CATCHMENT: AN ECO-HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

We developed and applied a spatially-explicit, eco-hydrologic model to examine how a landscape disturbance affects hydrologic processes, ecosystem cycling of C and N, and ecosystem structure. We simulated how the pattern and magnitude of tree removal in a catchment influences fo...

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Hydrological modelling in forested systems | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological processes. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically 'forest hydrology models'; that is, physically based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle. Physically based models can be considered those that describe the conservation of mass, momentum and/or energy. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of forest hydrology modeling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically “forest hydrology models”, i.e., physically-based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle.

Development of capability for microtopography-resolving simulations of hydrologic processes in permafrost affected regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, S.; Moulton, J. D.; Berndt, M.; Coon, E.; Garimella, R.; Lewis, K. C.; Manzini, G.; Mishra, P.; Travis, B. J.; Wilson, C. J.

2012-12-01

The frozen soils of the Arctic and subarctic regions contain vast amounts of stored organic carbon. This carbon is vulnerable to release to the atmosphere as temperatures warm and permafrost degrades. Understanding the response of the subsurface and surface hydrologic system to degrading permafrost is key to understanding the rate, timing, and chemical form of potential carbon releases to the atmosphere. Simulating the hydrologic system in degrading permafrost regions is challenging because of the potential for topographic evolution and associated drainage network reorganization as permafrost thaws and massive ground ice melts. The critical process models required for simulating hydrology include subsurface thermal hydrology of freezing/thawing soils, thermal processes within ice wedges, mechanical deformation processes, overland flow, and surface energy balances including snow dynamics. A new simulation tool, the Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), is being developed to simulate these coupled processes. The computational infrastructure must accommodate fully unstructured grids that track evolving topography, allow accurate solutions on distorted grids, provide robust and efficient solutions on highly parallel computer architectures, and enable flexibility in the strategies for coupling among the various processes. The ATS is based on Amanzi (Moulton et al. 2012), an object-oriented multi-process simulator written in C++ that provides much of the necessary computational infrastructure. Status and plans for the ATS including major hydrologic process models and validation strategies will be presented. Highly parallel simulations of overland flow using high-resolution digital elevation maps of polygonal patterned ground landscapes demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. Simulations coupling three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology with a simple thaw-induced subsidence model illustrate the strong feedbacks among the processes. D. Moulton, M. Berndt, M. Day, J. Meza, et al., High-Level Design of Amanzi, the Multi-Process High Performance Computing Simulator, Technical Report ASCEM-HPC-2011-03-1, DOE Environmental Management, 2012.

How can a modular Master Program in Hydrology provide a framework for future education challenges?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, Markus; Lange, Jens

2010-05-01

A new Master program in Hydrology started at the University of Freiburg in 2008 as a continuation of the Diploma program in Hydrology due to the proposed changes according to the Bologna ac-cord. This imposed formation provided a perfect opportunity to develop a new program that is able to meet the challenges of future hydrology students to work in a nonstationary world due to climate and land use change. A modular program with individual three week hydrological courses was es-tablished, which builds on a general bachelor knowledge in natural sciences. Besides broad theory, students are taught in all relevant methods of hydrological field data collection and laboratory analy-sis. Recurrently, practical data analysis is carried out using freeware software tools. Examples in-clude time series analysis, (geo-)statistics and independently programmed water balance models including uncertainty assessments. Students work on data sets of different climatic zones and are made aware of hydrological problem areas around the globe. Hence, graduates know how to collect, analyse and evaluate hydrological information and may prepare their own, independent tools to pre-dict future changes. In addition, the new modular program includes instructors from the industry and public authorities to provide the students a broad perspective of their future profession. Finally, the new program allows directly to teach university students and practicing hydrologists together to provide evolving methods in hydrology to the practitioners and to allow contacts to professional for the university students.

Development of Hydro-Informatic Modelling System and its Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Liu, C.; Zheng, H.; Zhang, L.; Wu, X.

2009-12-01

The understanding of hydrological cycle is the core of hydrology and the scientific base of water resources management. Meanwhile, simulation of hydrological cycle has long been regarded as an important tool for the assessment, utilization and protection of water resources. In this paper, a new tool named Hydro-Informatic Modelling System (HIMS) has been developed and introduced with case studies in the Yellow River Basin in China and 331 catchments in Australia. The case studies showed that HIMS can be employed as an integrated platform for hydrological simulation in different regions. HIMS is a modular based framework of hydrological model designed for different utilization such as flood forecasting, water resources planning and evaluating hydrological impacts of climate change and human activities. The unique of HIMS is its flexibility in providing alternative modules in the simulation of hydrological cycle, which successfully overcome the difficulties in the availability of input data, the uncertainty of parameters, and the difference of rainfall-runoff processes. The modular based structure of HIMS makes it possible for developing new hydrological models by the users.

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2016-10-01

We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

Using Advances in Research on Louisiana Coastal Restoration and Protection to Develop Undergraduate Hydrology Education Experiences Delivered via a Web Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodin, M.; Habib, E. H.; Meselhe, E. A.; Visser, J.; Chimmula, S.

2014-12-01

Utilizing advances in hydrologic research and technology, learning modules can be developed to deliver visual, case-based, data and simulation driven educational experiences. This paper focuses on the development of web modules based on case studies in Coastal Louisiana, one of three ecosystems that comprise an ongoing hydrology education online system called HydroViz. The Chenier Plain ecosystem in Coastal Louisiana provides an abundance of concepts and scenarios appropriate for use in many undergraduate water resource and hydrology curricula. The modules rely on a set of hydrologic data collected within the Chenier Plain along with inputs and outputs of eco-hydrology and vegetation-change simulation models that were developed to analyze different restoration and protection projects within the 2012 Louisiana Costal Master Plan. The modules begin by investigating the basic features of the basin and it hydrologic characteristics. The eco-hydrology model is then introduced along with its governing equations, numerical solution scheme and how it represents the study domain. Concepts on water budget in a coastal basin are then introduced using the simulation model inputs, outputs and boundary conditions. The complex relationships between salinity, water level and vegetation changes are then investigated through the use of the simulation models and associated field data. Other student activities focus on using the simulation models to evaluate tradeoffs and impacts of actual restoration and protection projects that were proposed as part of 2012 Louisiana Master Plan. The hands-on learning activities stimulate student learning of hydrologic and water management concepts by providing real-world context and opportunity to build fundamental knowledge as well as practical skills. The modules are delivered through a carefully designed user interface using open source and free technologies which enable wide dissemination and encourage adaptation by others.

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Cayan, D. R.; Meyer, M. K.

2001-12-01

Sensitivities of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are analyzed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-year period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th Century until about 1975, when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st Century with an attendant +2.5ºC warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. In contrast, a control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995, yields climate and streamflow-timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. Long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible above simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2020.

Effects of the Temporal Variability of Evapotranspiration on Hydrologic Simulation in Central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Andrew M.

2007-01-01

The transient response of a hydrologic system can be of concern to water-resource managers, because it is often extreme relatively short-lived events, such as floods or droughts, that profoundly influence the management of the resource. The water available to a hydrologic system for stream flow and aquifer recharge is determined by the difference of precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET). As such, temporal variations in precipitation and ET determine the degree of influence each has on the transient response of the hydrologic system. Meteorological, ET, and hydrologic data collected from 1993 to 2003 and spanning 1- to 3 2/3 -year periods were used to develop a hydrologic model for each of five sites in central Florida. The sensitivities of simulated water levels and flows to simple approximations of ET were quantified and the adequacy of each ET approximation was assessed. ET was approximated by computing potential ET, using the Hargreaves and Priestley-Taylor equations, and applying vegetation coefficients to adjust the potential ET values to actual ET. The Hargreaves and Priestley-Taylor ET approximations were used in the calibrated hydrologic models while leaving all other model characteristics and parameter values unchanged. Two primary factors that influence how the temporal variability of ET affects hydrologic simulation in central Florida were identified: (1) stochastic character of precipitation and ET and (2) the ability of the local hydrologic system to attenuate variability in input stresses. Differences in the stochastic character of precipitation and ET, both the central location and spread of the data, result in substantial influence of precipitation on the quantity and timing of water available to the hydrologic system and a relatively small influence of ET. The temporal variability of ET was considerably less than that of precipitation at each site over a wide range of time scales (from daily to annual). However, when precipitation and ET are of similar magnitude, small errors in ET can produce relatively large errors in available water, and accurate estimates of actual ET are more important. Local hydrologic conditions can also be an important factor influencing the hydrologic response to ET variability. Various points along a flow path in a hydrologic system respond differently to temporal variations in ET. For example, soil moisture contents in the root zone are sensitive to daily variations in ET, whereas spring flow responds to only longer term variations in ET. Both the Hargreaves and Priestley-Taylor equations for potential ET, when applied with an annually invariant monthly vegetation coefficient derived from comparison of measured ET with computed potential ET values, can be used with a hydrologic model to produce reasonable predictions of water levels and flows. Baseline-adjusted modified coefficients of efficiency for simulated water levels ranged from 0.0, indicating that water levels were simulated equally as well with approximated ET as with actual ET values, to -0.6, indicating that water levels were simulated better with actual ET values. Simulations using the Hargreaves approximation consistently yielded larger absolute and relative errors than the Priestley-Taylor approximation. However, the differences between the Hargreaves and Priestley-Taylor simulations generally were much smaller than differences between these simulations and the simulations using actual ET. This suggests that the simpler Hargreaves equation may be an adequate substitute for the more complex Priestley-Taylor equation, depending on the level of accuracy required to satisfy the particular modeling objectives.

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan GCMs.

Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, W.H.; Mosier, J. G.; Bush, P.W.

1997-01-01

The watershed simulation model Hydrologic Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) was used to generate simulated flow (runoff) from the 13 watersheds to the six bay systems because adequate gaged streamflow data from which to estimate freshwater inflows are not available; only about 23 percent of the adjacent contributing watershed area is gaged. The model was calibrated for the gaged parts of three watersheds—that is, selected input parameters (meteorologic and hydrologic properties and conditions) that control runoff were adjusted in a series of simulations until an adequate match between model-generated flows and a set (time series) of gaged flows was achieved. The primary model input is rainfall and evaporation data and the model output is a time series of runoff volumes. After calibration, simulations driven by daily rainfall for a 26-year period (1968–93) were done for the 13 watersheds to obtain runoff under current (1983–93), predevelopment (pre-1940 streamflow and pre-urbanization), and future (2010) land-use conditions for estimating freshwater inflows and for comparing runoff under the three land-use conditions; and to obtain time series of runoff from which to estimate time series of freshwater inflows for trend analysis.

WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

2014-05-01

Changing climate and hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are among the most severe challenges to Africa in the 21st century. In particular West Africa faces an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with negative impacts on humans and environment due to climate change, increased hydro-meteorological variability and land use changes. To help meet these challenges, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) started an initiative with institutions in Germany and West African countries to establish together a West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). This activity is accompanied by an establishment of trans-boundary observation networks, an interdisciplinary core research program and graduate research programs on climate change and related issues for strengthening the analytical capabilities of the Science Service Center. A key research activity of the WASCAL Competence Center is the provision of regional climate simulations in a fine spatio-temporal resolution for the core research sites of WASCAL for the present and the near future. The climate information is needed for subsequent local climate impact studies in agriculture, water resources and further socio-economic sectors. The simulation experiments are performed using regional climate models such as COSMO-CLM, RegCM and WRF and statistical techniques for a further refinement of the projections. The core research sites of WASCAL are located in the Sudanian Savannah belt in Northern Ghana, Southern Burkina Faso and Northern Benin. The climate in this region is semi-arid with six rainy months. Due to the strong population growth in West Africa, many areas of the Sudanian Savannah have been already converted to farmland since the majority of the people are living directly or indirectly from the income produced in agriculture. The simulation experiments of the Competence Center and the Core Research Program are accompanied by the WASCAL Graduate Research Program on the West African Climate System. The GRP-WACS provides ten scholarships per year for West African PhD students with a duration of three years. Present and future WASCAL PhD students will constitute one important user group of the Linux cluster that will be installed at the Competence Center in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Regional Land-Atmosphere Simulations A key research activity of the WASCAL Core Research Program is the analysis of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere to investigate how land surface changes affect hydro-meteorological surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration. Since current land surface models of global and regional climate models neglect dominant lateral hydrological processes such as surface runoff, a novel land surface model is used, the NCAR Distributed Hydrological Modeling System (NDHMS). This model can be coupled to WRF (WRF-Hydro) to perform two-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological simulations for the watershed of interest. Hardware and network prerequisites include a HPC cluster, network switches, internal storage media, Internet connectivity of sufficient bandwidth. Competences needed are HPC, storage, and visualization systems optimized for climate research, parallelization and optimization of climate models and workflows, efficient management of highest data volumes.

Simulating floods in the Amazon River Basin: Impacts of new river geomorphic and dynamic flow parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Howard, E. A.

2006-12-01

In this paper we analyze the hydrology of the Amazon River system for the latter half of the 20th century with our recently completed model of terrestrial hydrology (Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry, THMB). We evaluate the simulated hydrology of the Central Amazon basin against limited observations of river discharge, floodplain inundation, and water height and analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrology for the period 1939-1998. We compare the simulated discharge and floodplain inundated area to the simulations by Coe et al., 2002 using a previous version of this model. The new model simulates the discharge and flooded area in better agreement with the observations than the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed discharge for the greater than 27000 monthly observations of discharge at 120 sites throughout the Brazilian Amazon is 0.9874 compared to 0.9744 for the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated monthly flooded area and the satellite-based estimates by Sippel et al., 1998 exceeds 0.7 for 8 of the 12 mainstem reaches. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the water height and the river slope compares favorably to the satellite altimetric measurements of height reported by Birkett et al., 2002.

Towards Optimal Operation of the Reservoir System in Upper Yellow River: Incorporating Long- and Short-term Operations and Using Rolling Updated Hydrologic Forecast Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Li, X.; Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Yin, D.

2016-12-01

The cascade reservoirs in Upper Yellow River (UYR), one of the largest hydropower bases in China, play a vital role in peak load and frequency regulation for Northwest China Power Grid. The joint operation of this system has been put forward for years whereas has not come into effect due to management difficulties and inflow uncertainties, and thus there is still considerable improvement room for hydropower production. This study presents a decision support framework incorporating long- and short-term operation of the reservoir system. For long-term operation, we maximize hydropower production of the reservoir system using historical hydrological data of multiple years, and derive operating rule curves for storage reservoirs. For short-term operation, we develop a program consisting of three modules, namely hydrologic forecast module, reservoir operation module and coordination module. The coordination module is responsible for calling the hydrologic forecast module to acquire predicted inflow within a short-term horizon, and transferring the information to the reservoir operation module to generate optimal release decision. With the hydrologic forecast information updated, the rolling short-term optimization is iterated until the end of operation period, where the long-term operating curves serve as the ending storage target. As an application, the Digital Yellow River Integrated Model (referred to as "DYRIM", which is specially designed for runoff-sediment simulation in the Yellow River basin by Tsinghua University) is used in the hydrologic forecast module, and the successive linear programming (SLP) in the reservoir operation module. The application in the reservoir system of UYR demonstrates that the framework can effectively support real-time decision making, and ensure both computational accuracy and speed. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the general framework can be extended to any other reservoir system with any or combination of hydrological model(s) to forecast and any solver to optimize the operation of reservoir system.

Internal Catchment Process Simulation in a Snow-Dominated Basin: Performance Evaluation with Spatiotemporally Variable Runoff Generation and Groundwater Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuras, P. K.; Weiler, M.; Alila, Y.; Spittlehouse, D.; Winkler, R.

2006-12-01

Hydrologic models have been increasingly used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models, however, are also plagued by uncertainty stemming from a limited understanding of hydrological processes in forested catchments and parameter equifinality is a common concern. This has created the necessity to improve our understanding of how hydrological systems work, through the development of hydrological measures, analyses and models that address the question: are we getting the right answers for the right reasons? Hence, physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic models should be validated with high-quality experimental data describing multiple concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) frequently used in forest management applications is an example of a process-based model used to address the aforementioned circumstances, and this study takes a novel approach at collectively examining the ability of a pre-calibrated model application to realistically simulate outlet flows along with the spatial-temporal variation of internal catchment processes including: continuous groundwater dynamics at 9 locations, stream and road network flow at 67 locations for six individual days throughout the freshet, and pre-melt season snow distribution. Model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuous efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data in the watershed. Road and stream network flows were very well simulated for a range of hydrological conditions, and the spatial distribution of the pre-melt season snowpack was in general agreement with observed values. The model was effective in simulating the spatial variability of subsurface flow generation, except at locations where strong stream-groundwater interactions existed, as the model is not capable of simulating such processes and subsurface flows always drain to the stream network. The model has proven overall to be quite capable in realistically simulating internal catchment processes in the watershed, which creates more confidence in future model applications exploring the effects of various forest management scenarios on the watershed's hydrological processes.

Documentation of programs used to determine a wetlands hydroperiod from model-simulated water-surface elevations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sonenshein, R.S.

1996-01-01

A technique has been developed to determine a wetlands hydroperiod by comparing simulated water levels from a ground-water flow model and land- surface elevation data through a geographic information system. The simulated water levels are compared with the land-surface elevation data to determine the height of the water surface above or below land surface for the area of interest. Finally, the hydroperiod is determined for established time periods using criteria specified by the user. The program application requires the use of geographic information system software (ARC/INFO), including the TIN and GRID subsystems of the software. The application consists of an ANSI compatible C program to translate ground- water data output from the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) into a format that can be used as input for the geographic information system programs (AML's). The application uses ARC/INFO AML programs and ARC/INFO menu interface programs to create digital spatial data layers of the land surface and water surface and to determine the hydroperiod. The technique can be used to evaluate and manage wetlands hydrology.

Hydrologic data for water years 1933-97 used in the River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

2000-01-01

Title II of Public Law 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides direction, authority, and a mechanism for resolving conflicts over water rights in the Truckee and Carson River Basins. The Truckee Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support implementation of Public Law 101-618, has developed an operations model to simulate lake/reservoir and river operations for the Truckee River Basin including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. Several types of hydrologic data, formatted in a chronological order with a daily time interval called 'time series,' are described in this report. Time series from water years 1933 to 1997 can be used to run the operations model. Auxiliary hydrologic data not currently used by the model are also described. The time series of hydrologic data consist of flow, lake/reservoir elevation and storage, precipitation, evaporation, evapotranspiration, municipal and industrial (M&I) demand, and streamflow and lake/reservoir level forecast data.

A high-resolution physically-based global flood hazard map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaheil, Y.; Begnudelli, L.; McCollum, J.

2016-12-01

We present the results from a physically-based global flood hazard model. The model uses a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model is set up such that it allows the application of large-scale flood hazard through efficient use of parallel computing. For hydrology, we use the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model. HRR accounts for surface hydrology using Green-Ampt parameterization. The model is calibrated against observed discharge data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) network, among other publicly-available datasets. The parallel-computing framework takes advantage of the river network structure to minimize cross-processor messages, and thus significantly increases computational efficiency. For inundation, we implemented a computationally-efficient 2D finite-volume model with wetting/drying. The approach consists of simulating flood along the river network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs simulated by HRR, and scaled up to certain return levels, e.g. 100 years. The model is distributed such that each available processor takes the next simulation. Given an approximate criterion, the simulations are ordered from most-demanding to least-demanding to ensure that all processors finalize almost simultaneously. Upon completing all simulations, the maximum envelope of flood depth is taken to generate the final map. The model is applied globally, with selected results shown from different continents and regions. The maps shown depict flood depth and extent at different return periods. These maps, which are currently available at 3 arc-sec resolution ( 90m) can be made available at higher resolutions where high resolution DEMs are available. The maps can be utilized by flood risk managers at the national, regional, and even local levels to further understand their flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs.

The hydrologic implications of alternative prioritizations of landscape-scale geographically isolated wetlands conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; Mclaughlin, D. L.; D'Amico, E.

2016-12-01

Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), defined as upland embedded wetlands, provide an array of ecosystem goods and services. Wetland conservation efforts aim to protect GIWs in the face of continued threats from anthropogenic activities. Given limited conservation resources, there is a critical need for methods capable of evaluating the watershed-scale hydrologic implications of alternative approaches to GIW conservation. Further, there is a need for methods that quantify the watershed-scale aggregate effects of GIWs to determine their regulatory status within the United States. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a popular watershed-scale hydrologic model, to represent the 1,700 km2 Pipestem Creek watershed in North Dakota, USA. We modified the model to incorporate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes via hydrologic response unit (HRU) redefinition and modifications to the model source code. We then used the model to evaluate the hydrologic effects of alternative approaches to GIW conservation prioritization by simulating the destruction/removal of GIWs by sub-classes defined by their relative position within the simulated fill-spill GIW network and their surface area characteristics. We evaluated the alternative conservation approaches as impacting (1) simulated streamflow at the Pipestem Creek watershed outlet; (2) simulated water-levels within the GIWs; and (3) simulated hydrologic connections between the GIWs. Our approach to modifying SWAT and evaluating alternative GIW conservation strategies may be replicated in different watersheds and physiographic regions to aid the development of GIW conservation priorities.

Real-world hydrologic assessment of a fully-distributed hydrological model in a parallel computing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, Enrique R.; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Mniszewski, Susan; Fasel, Patricia; Springer, Everett P.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Bras, Rafael L.

2011-10-01

SummaryA major challenge in the use of fully-distributed hydrologic models has been the lack of computational capabilities for high-resolution, long-term simulations in large river basins. In this study, we present the parallel model implementation and real-world hydrologic assessment of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). Our parallelization approach is based on the decomposition of a complex watershed using the channel network as a directed graph. The resulting sub-basin partitioning divides effort among processors and handles hydrologic exchanges across boundaries. Through numerical experiments in a set of nested basins, we quantify parallel performance relative to serial runs for a range of processors, simulation complexities and lengths, and sub-basin partitioning methods, while accounting for inter-run variability on a parallel computing system. In contrast to serial simulations, the parallel model speed-up depends on the variability of hydrologic processes. Load balancing significantly improves parallel speed-up with proportionally faster runs as simulation complexity (domain resolution and channel network extent) increases. The best strategy for large river basins is to combine a balanced partitioning with an extended channel network, with potential savings through a lower TIN resolution. Based on these advances, a wider range of applications for fully-distributed hydrologic models are now possible. This is illustrated through a set of ensemble forecasts that account for precipitation uncertainty derived from a statistical downscaling model.

A "total parameter estimation" method in the varification of distributed hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Qin, D.; Wang, H.

2011-12-01

Conventionally hydrological models are used for runoff or flood forecasting, hence the determination of model parameters are common estimated based on discharge measurements at the catchment outlets. With the advancement in hydrological sciences and computer technology, distributed hydrological models based on the physical mechanism such as SWAT, MIKESHE, and WEP, have gradually become the mainstream models in hydrology sciences. However, the assessments of distributed hydrological models and model parameter determination still rely on runoff and occasionally, groundwater level measurements. It is essential in many countries, including China, to understand the local and regional water cycle: not only do we need to simulate the runoff generation process and for flood forecasting in wet areas, we also need to grasp the water cycle pathways and consumption process of transformation in arid and semi-arid regions for the conservation and integrated water resources management. As distributed hydrological model can simulate physical processes within a catchment, we can get a more realistic representation of the actual water cycle within the simulation model. Runoff is the combined result of various hydrological processes, using runoff for parameter estimation alone is inherits problematic and difficult to assess the accuracy. In particular, in the arid areas, such as the Haihe River Basin in China, runoff accounted for only 17% of the rainfall, and very concentrated during the rainy season from June to August each year. During other months, many of the perennial rivers within the river basin dry up. Thus using single runoff simulation does not fully utilize the distributed hydrological model in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper proposed a "total parameter estimation" method to verify the distributed hydrological models within various water cycle processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and soil water; and apply it to the Haihe river basin in China. The application results demonstrate that this comprehensive testing method is very useful in the development of a distributed hydrological model and it provides a new way of thinking in hydrological sciences.

Global-Scale Hydrology: Simple Characterization of Complex Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMS) are unique and valuable tools for the analysis of large-scale hydrology. AGCM simulations of climate provide tremendous amounts of hydrological data with a spatial and temporal coverage unmatched by observation systems. To the extent that the AGCM behaves realistically, these data can shed light on the nature of the real world's hydrological cycle. In the first part of the seminar, I will describe the hydrological cycle in a typical AGCM, with some emphasis on the validation of simulated precipitation against observations. The second part of the seminar will focus on a key goal in large-scale hydrology studies, namely the identification of simple, overarching controls on hydrological behavior hidden amidst the tremendous amounts of data produced by the highly complex AGCM parameterizations. In particular, I will show that a simple 50-year-old climatological relation (and a recent extension we made to it) successfully predicts, to first order, both the annual mean and the interannual variability of simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes. The seminar will conclude with an example of a practical application of global hydrology studies. The accurate prediction of weather statistics several months in advance would have tremendous societal benefits, and conventional wisdom today points at the use of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models for such seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Understanding the hydrological cycle in AGCMs is critical to establishing the potential for such prediction. Our own studies show, among other things, that soil moisture retention can lead to significant precipitation predictability in many midlatitude and tropical regions.

Radar studies related to the earth resources program. [remote sensing programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holtzman, J.

1972-01-01

The radar systems research discussed is directed toward achieving successful application of radar to remote sensing problems in such areas as geology, hydrology, agriculture, geography, forestry, and oceanography. Topics discussed include imaging radar and evaluation of its modification, study of digital processing for synthetic aperture system, digital simulation of synthetic aperture system, averaging techniques studies, ultrasonic modeling of panchromatic system, panchromatic radar/radar spectrometer development, measuring octave-bandwidth response of selected targets, scatterometer system analysis, and a model Fresnel-zone processor for synthetic aperture imagery.

Fallon, Nevada FORGE Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blankenship, Doug; Sonnenthal, Eric

Archive contains thermal-mechanical simulation input/output files. Included are files which fall into the following categories: ( 1 ) Spreadsheets with various input parameter calculations ( 2 ) Final Simulation Inputs ( 3 ) Native-State Thermal-Hydrological Model Input File Folders ( 4 ) Native-State Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical Model Input Files ( 5 ) THM Model Stimulation Cases See 'File Descriptions.xlsx' resource below for additional information on individual files.

Event-based hydrological modeling for detecting dominant hydrological process and suitable model strategy for semi-arid catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Pengnian; Li, Zhijia; Chen, Ji; Li, Qiaoling; Yao, Cheng

2016-11-01

To simulate the hydrological processes in semi-arid areas properly is still challenging. This study assesses the impact of different modeling strategies on simulating flood processes in semi-arid catchments. Four classic hydrological models, TOPMODEL, XINANJIANG (XAJ), SAC-SMA and TANK, were selected and applied to three semi-arid catchments in North China. Based on analysis and comparison of the simulation results of these classic models, four new flexible models were constructed and used to further investigate the suitability of various modeling strategies for semi-arid environments. Numerical experiments were also designed to examine the performances of the models. The results show that in semi-arid catchments a suitable model needs to include at least one nonlinear component to simulate the main process of surface runoff generation. If there are more than two nonlinear components in the hydrological model, they should be arranged in parallel, rather than in series. In addition, the results show that the parallel nonlinear components should be combined by multiplication rather than addition. Moreover, this study reveals that the key hydrological process over semi-arid catchments is the infiltration excess surface runoff, a non-linear component.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

2016-02-01

The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A better precipitation product does not guarantee a better discharge simulation because of interactions. It is also found that a good discharge simulation depends on a good coalition of a hydrological model and a precipitation product, suggesting that, although the satellite-based precipitation products are not as accurate as the gauge-based products, they could have better performance in discharge simulations when appropriately combined with hydrological models. This information is revealed for the first time and very beneficial for precipitation product applications.

Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-06-01

Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

Advancing the Implementation of Hydrologic Models as Web-based Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahal, P.; Tarboton, D. G.; Castronova, A. M.

2017-12-01

Advanced computer simulations are required to understand hydrologic phenomenon such as rainfall-runoff response, groundwater hydrology, snow hydrology, etc. Building a hydrologic model instance to simulate a watershed requires investment in data (diverse geospatial datasets such as terrain, soil) and computer resources, typically demands a wide skill set from the analyst, and the workflow involved is often difficult to reproduce. This work introduces a web-based prototype infrastructure in the form of a web application that provides researchers with easy to use access to complete hydrological modeling functionality. This includes creating the necessary geospatial and forcing data, preparing input files for a model by applying complex data preprocessing, running the model for a user defined watershed, and saving the results to a web repository. The open source Tethys Platform was used to develop the web app front-end Graphical User Interface (GUI). We used HydroDS, a webservice that provides data preparation processing capability to support backend computations used by the app. Results are saved in HydroShare, a hydrologic information system that supports the sharing of hydrologic data, model and analysis tools. The TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration (TOPKAPI) model served as the example for which we developed a complete hydrologic modeling service to demonstrate the approach. The final product is a complete modeling system accessible through the web to create input files, and run the TOPKAPI hydrologic model for a watershed of interest. We are investigating similar functionality for the preparation of input to Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). Key Words: hydrologic modeling, web services, hydrologic information system, HydroShare, HydroDS, Tethys Platform

The Influence of Runoff and Surface Hydrology on Titan's Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, S.; Lora, J. M.; Mitchell, J.; Moon, S.

2017-12-01

Titan's surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle, producing characteristic weather and seasonal climate patterns. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane "wetlands" reservoirs realistically produce observed cloud features and temperature profiles of Titan's atmosphere, whereas "aquaplanet" simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan's surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan's large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow of a global or regional methane table. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan's hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan's global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan GCMs, including infiltration and subsurface flow.

The Use of Simulation Models in Teaching Geomorphology and Hydrology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirkby, Mike; Naden, Pam

1988-01-01

Learning about the physical environment from computer simulation models is discussed in terms of three stages: exploration, experimentation, and calibration. Discusses the effective use of models and presents two computer simulations written in BBC BASIC, STORFLO (for catchment hydrology) and SLOPEK (for hillslope evolution). (Author/GEA)

Testing the Structure of Hydrological Models using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selle, B.; Muttil, N.

2009-04-01

Genetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that genetic programming can be used to test the structure hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, genetic programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, water table depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using genetic programming, a simple model of deep percolation was consistently evolved in multiple model runs. This simple and interpretable model confirmed the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that genetic programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

Use of output from high-resolution atmospheric models in landscape-scale hydrologic models: An assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Giorgi, F.

1993-01-01

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of coupling regional climate models (RCMs) with landscape-scale hydrologic models (LSHMs) for studies of the effects of climate on hydrologic systems. The RCM used is the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model (MM4). Output from two year-round simulations (1983 and 1988) over the western United States is used to drive a lake model for Pyramid Lake in Nevada and a streamfiow model for Steamboat Creek in Oregon. Comparisons with observed data indicate that MM4 is able to produce meteorologic data sets that can be used to drive hydrologic models. Results from the lake model simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output produces reasonably good predictions of surface temperature and evaporation. Results from the streamflow simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output results in good simulations of the seasonal cycle of streamflow, but deficiencies in simulated wintertime precipitation resulted in underestimates of streamflow and soil moisture. Further work with climate (multiyear) simulations is necessary to achieve a complete analysis, but the results from this study indicate that coupling of LSHMs and RCMs may be a useful approach for evaluating the effects of climate change on hydrologic systems.

First-order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water-groundwater interactions: Parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics-based approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ebel, B.A.; Mirus, B.B.; Heppner, C.S.; VanderKwaak, J.E.; Loague, K.

2009-01-01

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully-coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first-order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface-subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first-order exchange coefficients at a well-characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first-order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first-order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept-development simulations to examine real-world situations where the surface-subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first-order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first-order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics-based framework. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Multi-Tiered Approach for Building Capacity in Hydrologic Modeling for Water Resource Management in Developing Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markert, K. N.; Limaye, A. S.; Rushi, B. R.; Adams, E. C.; Anderson, E.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Mithieu, F.; Griffin, R.

2017-12-01

Water resource management is the process by which governments, businesses and/or individuals reach and implement decisions that are intended to address the future quantity and/or quality of water for societal benefit. The implementation of water resource management typically requires the understanding of the quantity and/or timing of a variety of hydrologic variables (e.g. discharge, soil moisture and evapotranspiration). Often times these variables for management are simulated using hydrologic models particularly in data sparse regions. However, there are several large barriers to entry in learning how to use models, applying best practices during the modeling process, and selecting and understanding the most appropriate model for diverse applications. This presentation focuses on a multi-tiered approach to bring the state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling capabilities and methods to developing regions through the SERVIR program, a joint NASA and USAID initiative that builds capacity of regional partners and their end users on the use of Earth observations for environmental decision making. The first tier is a series of trainings on the use of multiple hydrologic models, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5), which focus on model concepts and steps to successfully implement the models. We present a case study for this in a pilot area, the Nyando Basin in Kenya. The second tier is focused on building a community of practice on applied hydrology modeling aimed at creating a support network for hydrologists in SERVIR regions and promoting best practices. The third tier is a hydrologic inter-comparison project under development in the SERVIR regions. The objective of this step is to understand model performance under specific decision-making scenarios, and to share knowledge among hydrologists in SERVIR regions. The results of these efforts include computer programs, training materials, and new scientific understanding, all of which are shared in an open and collaborative environment for transparency and subsequent capacity building in SERVIR regions and beyond. The outcome of this work is increased awareness and capacity on the use of hydrologic models in developing regions to support water resource management and water security.

An assessment of cumulative impacts of coal mining on the hydrology in part of the Powder River structural basin, Wyoming; a progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, P.R.; Bloyd, R.M.; Daddow, P.B.

1984-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality are involved in a cooperative effort to assess the probable cumulative impacts of coal mining on the hydrology of a part of the Powder River Structural Basin in Wyoming. It was assumed that the principal impacts on the ground-water system due to mining will occur in the relatively shallow aquifers which can be grouped into three homogeneous aquifers, namely, the Wyodak coal, the overburden, and the under burden. Emphasis of this report is on the results of analysis of surface-water resources in the Caballo Creek drainage. A surface-water model of the Caballo Creek drainage was developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran model to help assess the impacts of mining activities on streamflow. The Caballo Creek drainage was divided into 10 land segments and 6 stream reaches in the modeling process. Three simulation runs show little, if any, change in streamflow between pre- and post-mining conditions and very little change between pre-mining and during-mining conditions. The principal reason for the absence of change is the high infiltration rate used in the model for all three conditions. (USGS)

Modeling post-wildfire hydrological processes with ParFlow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, I. S.; Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Wildfires alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff, evapotranspiration rates, and subsurface water storage. Post-fire hydrologic models are typically one-dimensional, empirically-based models or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful for modeling and predictions at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide detailed, distributed hydrologic processes at the point scale within the watershed. This research uses ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model to simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing the spatial and temporal variability of soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This work builds upon previous field and remote sensing analysis conducted for the 2003 Old Fire Burn in Devil Canyon, located in southern California (USA). This model is initially developed for a hillslope defined by a 500 m by 1000 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 12.4 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness to explicitly consider soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. We consider four slope and eight hydrophobic layer configurations. Evapotranspiration is used as a proxy for vegetation regrowth and is represented by the satellite-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBOP) product. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated at the point scale. Results will be used as a basis for developing and fine-tuning a watershed-scale model. Long-term simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management. In reference to the presenter, Isabel Escobar: Research is funded by the NASA-DIRECT STEM Program. Travel expenses for this presentation is funded by CSU-LSAMP. CSU-LSAMP is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant # HRD-1302873 and the CSU Office of Chancellor.

Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent processes from a different domain or have different spatial and temporal resolutions. An open source framework that bridges OpenMI and OpenDA is presented. The framework provides a generic and easy means for any OpenMI compliant model to assimilate observation measurements. An example test case will be presented using MikeSHE, and OpenMI compliant fully coupled integrated hydrological model that can accurately simulate the feedback dynamics of overland flow, unsaturated zone and saturated zone.

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

PubMed Central

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

Findings and Challenges in Fine-Resolution Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Her, Y. G.

2017-12-01

Fine-resolution large-scale (FL) modeling can provide the overall picture of the hydrological cycle and transport while taking into account unique local conditions in the simulation. It can also help develop water resources management plans consistent across spatial scales by describing the spatial consequences of decisions and hydrological events extensively. FL modeling is expected to be common in the near future as global-scale remotely sensed data are emerging, and computing resources have been advanced rapidly. There are several spatially distributed models available for hydrological analyses. Some of them rely on numerical methods such as finite difference/element methods (FDM/FEM), which require excessive computing resources (implicit scheme) to manipulate large matrices or small simulation time intervals (explicit scheme) to maintain the stability of the solution, to describe two-dimensional overland processes. Others make unrealistic assumptions such as constant overland flow velocity to reduce the computational loads of the simulation. Thus, simulation efficiency often comes at the expense of precision and reliability in FL modeling. Here, we introduce a new FL continuous hydrological model and its application to four watersheds in different landscapes and sizes from 3.5 km2 to 2,800 km2 at the spatial resolution of 30 m on an hourly basis. The model provided acceptable accuracy statistics in reproducing hydrological observations made in the watersheds. The modeling outputs including the maps of simulated travel time, runoff depth, soil water content, and groundwater recharge, were animated, visualizing the dynamics of hydrological processes occurring in the watersheds during and between storm events. Findings and challenges were discussed in the context of modeling efficiency, accuracy, and reproducibility, which we found can be improved by employing advanced computing techniques and hydrological understandings, by using remotely sensed hydrological observations such as soil moisture and radar rainfall depth and by sharing the model and its codes in public domain, respectively.

Linking statistically-and physically-based models for improved streamflow simulation in gaged and ungaged watersheds

Treesearch

Jacob LaFontaine; Lauren Hay; Stacey Archfield; William Farmer; Julie Kiang

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the continental US. The portion of the NHM located within the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) is...

Testing the structure of a hydrological model using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selle, Benny; Muttil, Nitin

2011-01-01

SummaryGenetic Programming is able to systematically explore many alternative model structures of different complexity from available input and response data. We hypothesised that Genetic Programming can be used to test the structure of hydrological models and to identify dominant processes in hydrological systems. To test this, Genetic Programming was used to analyse a data set from a lysimeter experiment in southeastern Australia. The lysimeter experiment was conducted to quantify the deep percolation response under surface irrigated pasture to different soil types, watertable depths and water ponding times during surface irrigation. Using Genetic Programming, a simple model of deep percolation was recurrently evolved in multiple Genetic Programming runs. This simple and interpretable model supported the dominant process contributing to deep percolation represented in a conceptual model that was published earlier. Thus, this study shows that Genetic Programming can be used to evaluate the structure of hydrological models and to gain insight about the dominant processes in hydrological systems.

Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

2016-01-01

Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

Python-Assisted MODFLOW Application and Code Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langevin, C.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of developing and maintaining free, open-source software for hydrological investigations. The MODFLOW program is one of the most popular hydrologic simulation programs released by the USGS, and it is considered to be the most widely used groundwater flow simulation code. MODFLOW was written using a modular design and a procedural FORTRAN style, which resulted in code that could be understood, modified, and enhanced by many hydrologists. The code is fast, and because it uses standard FORTRAN it can be run on most operating systems. Most MODFLOW users rely on proprietary graphical user interfaces for constructing models and viewing model results. Some recent efforts, however, have focused on construction of MODFLOW models using open-source Python scripts. Customizable Python packages, such as FloPy (https://code.google.com/p/flopy), can be used to generate input files, read simulation results, and visualize results in two and three dimensions. Automating this sequence of steps leads to models that can be reproduced directly from original data and rediscretized in space and time. Python is also being used in the development and testing of new MODFLOW functionality. New packages and numerical formulations can be quickly prototyped and tested first with Python programs before implementation in MODFLOW. This is made possible by the flexible object-oriented design capabilities available in Python, the ability to call FORTRAN code from Python, and the ease with which linear systems of equations can be solved using SciPy, for example. Once new features are added to MODFLOW, Python can then be used to automate comprehensive regression testing and ensure reliability and accuracy of new versions prior to release.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.

PubMed

Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C

2016-03-10

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies.

Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model

PubMed Central

Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B.; Refsgaard, Jens C.

2016-01-01

The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. PMID:26960564

Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Chenoweth Run basin, Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Shipp, Allison A.

2001-01-01

Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected in the Chenoweth Run Basin during February 1996?January 1998, in combination with the available historical sampling data, were used to characterize hydrologic conditions and to develop and calibrate a Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF) model for continuous simulation of rainfall, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and total-orthophosphate (TPO4) transport relations. Study results provide an improved understanding of basin hydrology and a hydrologic-modeling framework with analytical tools for use in comprehensive waterresource planning and management. Chenoweth Run Basin, encompassing 16.5 mi2 in suburban eastern Jefferson County, Kentucky, contains expanding urban development, particularly in the upper third of the basin. Historical water-quality problems have interfered with designated aquatic-life and recreation uses in the stream main channel (approximately 9 mi in length) and have been attributed to organic enrichment, nutrients, metals, and pathogens in urban runoff and wastewater inflows. Hydrologic conditions in Jefferson County are highly varied. In the Chenoweth Run Basin, as in much of the eastern third of the county, relief is moderately sloping to steep. Also, internal drainage in pervious areas is impeded by the shallow, fine-textured subsoils that contain abundant silts and clays. Thus, much of the precipitation here tends to move rapidly as overland flow and (or) shallow subsurface flow (interflow) to the stream channels. Data were collected at two streamflowgaging stations, one rain gage, and four waterquality- sampling sites in the basin. Precipitation, streamflow, and, consequently, constituent loads were above normal during the data-collection period of this study. Nonpoint sources contributed the largest portion of the sediment loads. However, the three wastewatertreatment plants (WWTP?s) were the source of the majority of estimated total phosphorus (TP) and TPO4 transport downstream from the WWTP?s. HSPF, a hydrologic model capable of simulating mixed-land-use basins, includes land surface, subsurface, and instream waterquantity- and water-quality-modeling components. The HSPF model was used to represent several important hydrologic features of the Chenoweth Run Basin including (1) numerous small lakes and ponds, through which approximately 25 percent of the basin drains; (2) potential seasonal ground-waterseepage losses in stream channels; (3) contributions from WWTP effluents and bypass flows; and (4) the transport and transformations of sediments and nutrients. The HSPF model was calibrated and verified for flow simulation on the basis of measured total, annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, hourly, and 5-minute-interval storm discharge data. The occurrence of numerous storms during the study period permitted a splitsample procedure to be used for a model verification on the basis of storm volumes and peaks. Total simulated and observed discharge during the model calibration period differed by approximately -5.4 percent at the upper gaging station and 3.1 percent at the lower station. The model results for the total and annual water balances were classified as very good on the basis of the calibration criteria reported in other modeling studies. The model had correlation coefficients ranging from 0.89 to 0.98 for hourly to monthly mean flows, respectively. The coefficients of model-fit efficiency for daily and monthly discharge simulations were near the excellent range (exceeding 0.97). However, the model was calibrated for a comparatively short 24-month period during which flows were above normal. Increased model error might be expected during an extended period of nearnormal flows. The model was calibrated for simulation of sediment and TPO4 transport. The simulated mean-annual load (over 24 months) ranged from -33 to -28 percent of the estimated sediment load and within +/- 1 percent of the estimated TPO4 load at the two streamflow-gaging s

Seperating Long-term Hydrological Loading and Tectonic Deformation Observed with Multi-temporal SAR Interferometry and GPS in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, G.; Lin, H.

2014-12-01

From 2000 till present, most endorheic lakes in Tibetan plateau experienced quick increasing. Several largest lakes, gathered several meters depth water during one decade. Such massive mass increasing will lead to elastic and visco-elastic deformation of the ground. Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is one the most active tectonic places in the world; monitoring its ground deformation is essential, when loading effect is a nuisance item. Due to the sparse distribution of GPS sites and most are roving sites, it is hard to distinguish tectonic component from mass loading effect. In this research we took Selin Co Lake located at Nujiang-Bangoin suture zone and evaluated long time ground deformation at hundred kilometers scale by multi-temporal SAR interferometry and simulate the ground deformation by loading history evaluated by multi mission satellite altimetry and optical images observation. At Nujiang-Bangoin suture zone, where GPS presented the maximum ground subsidence in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of 3.6mm/a which was found at the shore of Selin Co Lake from 1999 to 2011, when it experienced water level increasing of 0.7m/a. A model of elastic plate lying over Newtonian viscous half-space matches well with the results of multi-temporal SAR interferometry and GPS observations. We concluded that near Selin Co Lake area, ground deformation is composed by both tectonic and hydrological loading part. As SAR image coverage is much smaller than tectonic scale, we contribute the deformation detected by InSAR to loading effect. After evaluating and removing the hydrological loading effect, we founds that Nujiang-Bangoin suture zone did not experience quick subsidence, but only limited to 0.5mm/a. Selin Co Lake's quick volume increasing caused 3mm/a subsidence rate to the nearest GPS site. The Second nearest site showed the 1.4mm/a subsidence totally, which were composed by 1.05mm/a hydrological loading effect and the rest was tectonic. We also found that Young's Modulus is the most essential parameter for loading effect simulation, and our simulation gave the similar Young's Modulus as the previous seismic tomographic INDEPTH III program did. Therefore with accurate seismic tomographic results and loading history detected by remote sensing could accurately simulate ground deformation caused by hydrological loading.

Hydrological and water quality processes simulation by the integrated MOHID model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epelde, Ane; Antiguedad, Iñaki; Brito, David; Eduardo, Jauch; Neves, Ramiro; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, José Miguel

2016-04-01

Different modelling approaches have been used in recent decades to study the water quality degradation caused by non-point source pollution. In this study, the MOHID fully distributed and physics-based model has been employed to simulate hydrological processes and nitrogen dynamics in a nitrate vulnerable zone: the Alegria River watershed (Basque Country, Northern Spain). The results of this study indicate that the MOHID code is suitable for hydrological processes simulation at the watershed scale, as the model shows satisfactory performance at simulating the discharge (with NSE: 0.74 and 0.76 during calibration and validation periods, respectively). The agronomical component of the code, allowed the simulation of agricultural practices, which lead to adequate crop yield simulation in the model. Furthermore, the nitrogen exportation also shows satisfactory performance (with NSE: 0.64 and 0.69 during calibration and validation periods, respectively). While the lack of field measurements do not allow to evaluate the nutrient cycling processes in depth, it has been observed that the MOHID model simulates the annual denitrification according to general ranges established for agricultural watersheds (in this study, 9 kg N ha-1 year-1). In addition, the model has simulated coherently the spatial distribution of the denitrification process, which is directly linked to the simulated hydrological conditions. Thus, the model has localized the highest rates nearby the discharge zone of the aquifer and also where the aquifer thickness is low. These results evidence the strength of this model to simulate watershed scale hydrological processes as well as the crop production and the agricultural activity derived water quality degradation (considering both nutrient exportation and nutrient cycling processes).

Coupling long and short term decisions in the design of urban water supply infrastructure for added reliability and flexibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, G.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

2016-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty and water scarcity requires a strategic combination of supply sources for reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources involves integration of long and short term planning to determine what and when to expand, and how much to use of each supply source accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. This research presents an integrated methodology coupling dynamic programming optimization with quadratic programming to optimize the expansion (long term) and operations (short term) of multiple water supply alternatives. Lagrange Multipliers produced by the short-term model provide a signal about the marginal opportunity cost of expansion to the long-term model, in an iterative procedure. A simulation model hosts the water supply infrastructure and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions; (b) evaluation of water transfers between urban supply systems; and (c) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion.

Water resources management: Hydrologic characterization through hydrograph simulation may bias streamflow statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Kiang, J. E.

2017-12-01

The development, deployment and maintenance of water resources management infrastructure and practices rely on hydrologic characterization, which requires an understanding of local hydrology. With regards to streamflow, this understanding is typically quantified with statistics derived from long-term streamgage records. However, a fundamental problem is how to characterize local hydrology without the luxury of streamgage records, a problem that complicates water resources management at ungaged locations and for long-term future projections. This problem has typically been addressed through the development of point estimators, such as regression equations, to estimate particular statistics. Physically-based precipitation-runoff models, which are capable of producing simulated hydrographs, offer an alternative to point estimators. The advantage of simulated hydrographs is that they can be used to compute any number of streamflow statistics from a single source (the simulated hydrograph) rather than relying on a diverse set of point estimators. However, the use of simulated hydrographs introduces a degree of model uncertainty that is propagated through to estimated streamflow statistics and may have drastic effects on management decisions. We compare the accuracy and precision of streamflow statistics (e.g. the mean annual streamflow, the annual maximum streamflow exceeded in 10% of years, and the minimum seven-day average streamflow exceeded in 90% of years, among others) derived from point estimators (e.g. regressions, kriging, machine learning) to that of statistics derived from simulated hydrographs across the continental United States. Initial results suggest that the error introduced through hydrograph simulation may substantially bias the resulting hydrologic characterization.

CIRMIS Data system. Volume 2. Program listings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.

1980-01-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (OWNI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. The various input parameters required in the analysis are compiled in data systems. The data are organized and prepared by various input subroutines for utilization by the hydraulic and transport codes. The hydrologic models simulate the groundwater flow systems and provide water flow directions, rates, and velocities as inputs to the transport models. Outputs from the transport models are basically graphs of radionuclide concentration in the groundwater plotted against time. After dilution in the receiving surface-water body (e.g., lake, river, bay), these data are the input source terms for the dose models, if dose assessments are required.The dose models calculate radiation dose to individuals and populations. CIRMIS (Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence) Data System is a storage and retrieval system for model input and output data, including graphical interpretation and display. This is the second of four volumes of the description of the CIRMIS Data System.« less

Assessing the skill of hydrology models at simulating the water cycle in the HJ Andrews LTER: Assumptions, strengths and weaknesses

EPA Science Inventory

Simulated impacts of climate on hydrology can vary greatly as a function of the scale of the input data, model assumptions, and model structure. Four models are commonly used to simulate streamflow in model assumptions, and model structure. Four models are commonly used to simu...

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

1975-01-01

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Numerical computation of hurricane effects on historic coastal hydrology in Southern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2015-01-01

The hindcast simulation estimated hydrologic processes for the 1926 to 1932 period. It shows promise as a simulator in long-term ecological studies to test hypotheses based on theoretical or empirical-based studies at larger landscape scales.

Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

2009-06-01

Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

On the Fidelity of Semi-distributed Hydrologic Model Simulations for Large Scale Catchment Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajami, H.; Sharma, A.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Application of semi-distributed hydrologic modeling frameworks is a viable alternative to fully distributed hyper-resolution hydrologic models due to computational efficiency and resolving fine-scale spatial structure of hydrologic fluxes and states. However, fidelity of semi-distributed model simulations is impacted by (1) formulation of hydrologic response units (HRUs), and (2) aggregation of catchment properties for formulating simulation elements. Here, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed Soil Moisture and Runoff simulation Toolkit (SMART) for large catchment scale simulations. In SMART, topologically connected HRUs are delineated using thresholds obtained from topographic and geomorphic analysis of a catchment, and simulation elements are equivalent cross sections (ECS) representative of a hillslope in first order sub-basins. Earlier investigations have shown that formulation of ECSs at the scale of a first order sub-basin reduces computational time significantly without compromising simulation accuracy. However, the implementation of this approach has not been fully explored for catchment scale simulations. To assess SMART performance, we set-up the model over the Little Washita watershed in Oklahoma. Model evaluations using in-situ soil moisture observations show satisfactory model performance. In addition, we evaluated the performance of a number of soil moisture disaggregation schemes recently developed to provide spatially explicit soil moisture outputs at fine scale resolution. Our results illustrate that the statistical disaggregation scheme performs significantly better than the methods based on topographic data. Future work is focused on assessing the performance of SMART using remotely sensed soil moisture observations using spatially based model evaluation metrics.

Interactive Learning Environment: Web-based Virtual Hydrological Simulation System using Augmented and Immersive Reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.

2014-12-01

Recent developments in internet technologies make it possible to manage and visualize large data on the web. Novel visualization techniques and interactive user interfaces allow users to create realistic environments, and interact with data to gain insight from simulations and environmental observations. The hydrological simulation system is a web-based 3D interactive learning environment for teaching hydrological processes and concepts. The simulation systems provides a visually striking platform with realistic terrain information, and water simulation. Students can create or load predefined scenarios, control environmental parameters, and evaluate environmental mitigation alternatives. The web-based simulation system provides an environment for students to learn about the hydrological processes (e.g. flooding and flood damage), and effects of development and human activity in the floodplain. The system utilizes latest web technologies and graphics processing unit (GPU) for water simulation and object collisions on the terrain. Users can access the system in three visualization modes including virtual reality, augmented reality, and immersive reality using heads-up display. The system provides various scenarios customized to fit the age and education level of various users. This presentation provides an overview of the web-based flood simulation system, and demonstrates the capabilities of the system for various visualization and interaction modes.

Simulation of Runoff Changes Caused by Cropland to Forest Conversion in the Upper Yangtze River Region, SW China

PubMed Central

Yu, Pengtao; Wang, Yanhui; Coles, Neil; Xiong, Wei; Xu, Lihong

2015-01-01

The "Grain for Green Project" is a country-wide ecological program to converse marginal cropland to forest, which has been implemented in China since 2002. To quantify influence of this significant vegetation change, Guansihe Hydrological (GSH) Model, a validated physically-based distributed hydrological model, was applied to simulate runoff responses to land use change in the Guansihe watershed that is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin in Southwestern China with an area of only 21.1 km2. Runoff responses to two single rainfall events, 90 mm and 206 mm respectively, were simulated for 16 scenarios of cropland to forest conversion. The model simulations indicated that the total runoff generated after conversion to forest was strongly dependent on whether the land was initially used for dry croplands without standing water in fields or constructed (or walled) paddy fields. The simulated total runoff generated from the two rainfall events displayed limited variation for the conversion of dry croplands to forest, while it strongly decreased after paddy fields were converted to forest. The effect of paddy terraces on runoff generation was dependent on the rainfall characteristics and antecedent moisture (or saturation) conditions in the fields. The reduction in simulated runoff generated from intense rainfall events suggested that afforestation and terracing might be effective in managing runoff and had the potential to mitigate flooding in southwestern China. PMID:26192181

Improving Streamflow Simulation in Gaged and Ungaged Areas Using a Multi-Model Synthesis Combined with Remotely-Sensed Data and Estimates of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.

2015-12-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the conterminous United States (CONUS). More than 1,700 gaged watersheds across the CONUS were modeled to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations in gaged and ungaged watersheds by linking statistically- and physically-based hydrologic models with remotely-sensed data products (i.e. - snow water equivalent) and estimates of uncertainty. Initially, the physically-based models were calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison. As many stream reaches in the CONUS are either not gaged, or are substantially impacted by water use or flow regulation, ancillary information must be used to determine reasonable parameter estimations for streamflow simulations. In addition, not all ancillary datasets are appropriate for application to all parts of the CONUS (e.g. - snow water equivalent in the southeastern U.S., where snow is a rarity). As it is not expected that any one data product or model simulation will be sufficient for representing hydrologic behavior across the entire CONUS, a systematic evaluation of which data products improve simulations of streamflow for various regions across the CONUS was performed. The resulting portfolio of calibration strategies can be used to guide selection of an appropriate combination of simulated and measured information for model development and calibration at a given location of interest. In addition, these calibration strategies have been developed to be flexible so that new data products or simulated information can be assimilated. This analysis provides a foundation to understand how well models work when streamflow data is either not available or is limited and could be used to further inform hydrologic model parameter development for ungaged areas.

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Hydrological and Nutrients Simulation Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran in a Mesoscale Monsoon Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Luo, Chuan; Jiang, Kaixia; Wan, Rongrong; Li, Hengpeng

2017-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) is a hydrological and water quality computer model that was developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Comprehensive performance evaluations were carried out for hydrological and nutrient simulation using the HSPF model in the Xitiaoxi watershed in China. Streamflow simulation was calibrated from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2007 and then validated from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 using daily observed data, and nutrient simulation was calibrated and validated using monthly observed data during the period from July 2009 to July 2010. These results of model performance evaluation showed that the streamflows were well simulated over the study period. The determination coefficient (R2) was 0.87, 0.77 and 0.63, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (Ens) was 0.82, 0.76 and 0.65 for the streamflow simulation in annual, monthly and daily time-steps, respectively. Although limited to monthly observed data, satisfactory performance was still achieved during the quantitative evaluation for nutrients. The R2 was 0.73, 0.82 and 0.92, and the Ens was 0.67, 0.74 and 0.86 for nitrate, ammonium and orthophosphate simulation, respectively. Some issues may affect the application of HSPF were also discussed, such as input data quality, parameter values, etc. Overall, the HSPF model can be successfully used to describe streamflow and nutrients transport in the mesoscale watershed located in the East Asian monsoon climate area. This study is expected to serve as a comprehensive and systematic documentation of understanding the HSPF model for wide application and avoiding possible misuses. PMID:29257117

Compilation of watershed models for tributaries to the Great Lakes, United States, as of 2010, and identification of watersheds for future modeling for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2011-01-01

As part of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) during 2009–10, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compiled a list of existing watershed models that had been created for tributaries within the United States that drain to the Great Lakes. Established Federal programs that are overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) are responsible for most of the existing watershed models for specific tributaries. The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) uses the Large Basin Runoff Model to provide data for the management of water levels in the Great Lakes by estimating United States and Canadian inflows to the Great Lakes from 121 large watersheds. GLERL also simulates streamflows in 34 U.S. watersheds by a grid-based model, the Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model. The NOAA National Weather Service uses the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model to predict flows at river forecast sites. The USACE created or funded the creation of models for at least 30 tributaries to the Great Lakes to better understand sediment erosion, transport, and aggradation processes that affect Federal navigation channels and harbors. Many of the USACE hydrologic models have been coupled with hydrodynamic and sediment-transport models that simulate the processes in the stream and harbor near the mouth of the modeled tributary. Some models either have been applied or have the capability of being applied across the entire Great Lakes Basin; they are (1) the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model, which was developed by the USGS; (2) the High Impact Targeting (HIT) and Digital Watershed models, which were developed by the Institute of Water Research at Michigan State University; (3) the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L–THIA) model, which was developed by researchers at Purdue University; and (4) the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, which was developed by the National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. During 2010, the USGS used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to create a hydrologic model for the Lake Michigan Basin to assess the probable effects of climate change on future groundwater and surface-water resources. The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) model and the Analysis of Flows In Networks of CHannels (AFINCH) program also were used to support USGS GLRI projects that required estimates of streamflows throughout the Great Lakes Basin. This information on existing watershed models, along with an assessment of geologic, soils, and land-use data across the Great Lakes Basin and the identification of problems that exist in selected tributary watersheds that could be addressed by a watershed model, was used to identify three watersheds in the Great Lakes Basin for future modeling by the USGS. These watersheds are the Kalamazoo River Basin in Michigan, the Tonawanda Creek Basin in New York, and the Bad River Basin in Wisconsin. These candidate watersheds have hydrogeologic, land-type, and soil characteristics that make them distinct from each other, but that are representative of other tributary watersheds within the Great Lakes Basin. These similarities in the characteristics among nearby watersheds will enhance the usefulness of a model by improving the likelihood that parameter values from a previously modeled watershed could reliably be used in the creation of a model of another watershed in the same region. The software program Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) was selected to simulate the hydrologic, sedimentary, and water-quality processes in these selected watersheds. HSPF is a versatile, process-based, continuous-simulation model that has been used extensively by the scientific community, has the ongoing technical support of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and USGS, and provides a means to evaluate the effects that land-use changes or management practices might have on the simulated processes.

Development of an Improved Irrigation Subroutine in SWAT to Simulate the Hydrology of Rice Paddy Grown under Submerged Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muraleedharan, B. V.; Kathirvel, K.; Narasimhan, B.; Nallasamy, N. D.

2014-12-01

Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a basin scale, distributed hydrological model commonly used to predict the effect of management decisions on the hydrologic response of watersheds. Hydrologic response is decided by the various components of water balance. In the case of watersheds located in south India as well as in several other tropical countries around the world, paddy is one of the dominant crop controlling the hydrologic response of a watershed. Hence, the suitability of SWAT in replicating the hydrology of paddy fields needs to be verified. Rice paddy fields are subjected to flooding method of irrigation, while the irrigation subroutines in SWAT are developed to simulate crops grown under non flooding conditions. Moreover irrigation is represented well in field scale models, while it is poorly represented within watershed models like SWAT. Reliable simulation of flooding method of irrigation and hydrology of the fields will assist in effective water resources management of rice paddy fields which are one of the major consumers of surface and ground water resources. The current study attempts to modify the irrigation subroutine in SWAT so as to simulate flooded irrigation condition. A field water balance study was conducted on representative fields located within Gadana, a subbasin located in Tamil Nadu (southern part of India) and dominated by rice paddy based irrigation systems. The water balance of irrigated paddy fields simulated with SWAT was compared with the water balance derived by rice paddy based crop growth model named ORYZA. The variation in water levels along with the soil moisture variation predicted by SWAT was evaluated with respect to the estimates derived from ORYZA. The water levels were further validated with field based water balance measurements taken on a daily scale. It was observed that the modified irrigation subroutine was able to simulate irrigation of rice paddy within SWAT in a realistic way compared to the existing method.

Parallelization of a Fully-Distributed Hydrologic Model using Sub-basin Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivoni, E. R.; Mniszewski, S.; Fasel, P.; Springer, E.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L.

2005-12-01

A primary obstacle towards advances in watershed simulations has been the limited computational capacity available to most models. The growing trend of model complexity, data availability and physical representation has not been matched by adequate developments in computational efficiency. This situation has created a serious bottleneck which limits existing distributed hydrologic models to small domains and short simulations. In this study, we present novel developments in the parallelization of a fully-distributed hydrologic model. Our work is based on the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), which provides continuous hydrologic simulation using a multiple resolution representation of complex terrain based on a triangulated irregular network (TIN). While the use of TINs reduces computational demand, the sequential version of the model is currently limited over large basins (>10,000 km2) and long simulation periods (>1 year). To address this, a parallel MPI-based version of the tRIBS model has been implemented and tested using high performance computing resources at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Our approach utilizes domain decomposition based on sub-basin partitioning of the watershed. A stream reach graph based on the channel network structure is used to guide the sub-basin partitioning. Individual sub-basins or sub-graphs of sub-basins are assigned to separate processors to carry out internal hydrologic computations (e.g. rainfall-runoff transformation). Routed streamflow from each sub-basin forms the major hydrologic data exchange along the stream reach graph. Individual sub-basins also share subsurface hydrologic fluxes across adjacent boundaries. We demonstrate how the sub-basin partitioning provides computational feasibility and efficiency for a set of test watersheds in northeastern Oklahoma. We compare the performance of the sequential and parallelized versions to highlight the efficiency gained as the number of processors increases. We also discuss how the coupled use of TINs and parallel processing can lead to feasible long-term simulations in regional watersheds while preserving basin properties at high-resolution.

An intermediate-scale model for thermal hydrology in low-relief permafrost-affected landscapes

DOE PAGES

Jan, Ahmad; Coon, Ethan T.; Painter, Scott L.; ...

2017-07-10

Integrated surface/subsurface models for simulating the thermal hydrology of permafrost-affected regions in a warming climate have recently become available, but computational demands of those new process-rich simu- lation tools have thus far limited their applications to one-dimensional or small two-dimensional simulations. We present a mixed-dimensional model structure for efficiently simulating surface/subsurface thermal hydrology in low-relief permafrost regions at watershed scales. The approach replaces a full three-dimensional system with a two-dimensional overland thermal hydrology system and a family of one-dimensional vertical columns, where each column represents a fully coupled surface/subsurface thermal hydrology system without lateral flow. The system is then operatormore » split, sequentially updating the overland flow system without sources and the one-dimensional columns without lateral flows. We show that the app- roach is highly scalable, supports subcycling of different processes, and compares well with the corresponding fully three-dimensional representation at significantly less computational cost. Those advances enable recently developed representations of freezing soil physics to be coupled with thermal overland flow and surface energy balance at scales of 100s of meters. Furthermore developed and demonstrated for permafrost thermal hydrology, the mixed-dimensional model structure is applicable to integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology in general.« less

Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

2017-12-01

Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

The benefits of using remotely sensed soil moisture in parameter identification of large-scale hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; de Jong, S. M.; de Roo, A.; Karssenberg, D.

2014-08-01

Large-scale hydrological models are nowadays mostly calibrated using observed discharge. As a result, a large part of the hydrological system, in particular the unsaturated zone, remains uncalibrated. Soil moisture observations from satellites have the potential to fill this gap. Here we evaluate the added value of remotely sensed soil moisture in calibration of large-scale hydrological models by addressing two research questions: (1) Which parameters of hydrological models can be identified by calibration with remotely sensed soil moisture? (2) Does calibration with remotely sensed soil moisture lead to an improved calibration of hydrological models compared to calibration based only on discharge observations, such that this leads to improved simulations of soil moisture content and discharge? A dual state and parameter Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to calibrate the hydrological model LISFLOOD for the Upper Danube. Calibration is done using discharge and remotely sensed soil moisture acquired by AMSR-E, SMOS, and ASCAT. Calibration with discharge data improves the estimation of groundwater and routing parameters. Calibration with only remotely sensed soil moisture results in an accurate identification of parameters related to land-surface processes. For the Upper Danube upstream area up to 40,000 km2, calibration on both discharge and soil moisture results in a reduction by 10-30% in the RMSE for discharge simulations, compared to calibration on discharge alone. The conclusion is that remotely sensed soil moisture holds potential for calibration of hydrological models, leading to a better simulation of soil moisture content throughout the catchment and a better simulation of discharge in upstream areas. This article was corrected on 15 SEP 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Modeling the Hydrological Cycle in the Atmosphere of Mars: Influence of a Bimodal Size Distribution of Aerosol Nucleation Particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry S.; Rodin, Alexander V.; Medvedev, Alexander S.; Fedorova, Anna A.; Kuroda, Takeshi; Hartogh, Paul

2018-02-01

We present a new implementation of the hydrological cycle scheme into a general circulation model of the Martian atmosphere. The model includes a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme for water vapor and ice and accounts for microphysics of phase transitions between them. The hydrological scheme includes processes of saturation, nucleation, particle growth, sublimation, and sedimentation under the assumption of a variable size distribution. The scheme has been implemented into the Max Planck Institute Martian general circulation model and tested assuming monomodal and bimodal lognormal distributions of ice condensation nuclei. We present a comparison of the simulated annual variations, horizontal and vertical distributions of water vapor, and ice clouds with the available observations from instruments on board Mars orbiters. The accounting for bimodality of aerosol particle distribution improves the simulations of the annual hydrological cycle, including predicted ice clouds mass, opacity, number density, and particle radii. The increased number density and lower nucleation rates bring the simulated cloud opacities closer to observations. Simulations show a weak effect of the excess of small aerosol particles on the simulated water vapor distributions.

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Ward-Garrison, D. Christian; Risley, John C.; Battaglin, William A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Chase, Katherine J.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Dudley, Robert W.; Hunt, Randall J.; Koczot, Kathryn M.; Mastin, Mark C.; Regan, R. Steven; Viger, Roland J.; Vining, Kevin C.; Walker, John F.

2012-01-01

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Using Coupled Groundwater-Surface Water Models to Simulate Eco-Regional Differences in Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Drought Regimes in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierauer, J. R.; Allen, D. M.

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extremes, including daily maximum temperatures, heat waves, and meteorological droughts, which will likely result in shifts in the hydrological drought regime (i.e. the frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events). While many studies have used hydrologic models to simulate climate change impacts on water resources, only a small portion of these studies have analyzed impacts on low flows and/or hydrological drought. This study is the first to use a fully coupled groundwater-surface water (gw-sw) model to study climate change impacts on hydrological drought. Generic catchment-scale gw-sw models were created for each of the six major eco-regions in British Columbia using the MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 modelling code. Daily precipitation and temperature time series downscaled using bias-correction spatial disaggregation for the simulated period of 1950-2100 were obtained from the Pacific Climate Institute Consortium (PCIC). Streamflow and groundwater drought events were identified from the simulated time series for each catchment model using the moving window quantile threshold. The frequency, timing, duration, and severity of drought events were compared between the reference period (1961-2000) and two future time periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). Results show how hydrological drought regimes across the different British Columbia eco-regions will be impacted by climate change.

Northern Everglades, Florida, satellite image map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Jean-Claude; Jones, John W.

2002-01-01

These satellite image maps are one product of the USGS Land Characteristics from Remote Sensing project, funded through the USGS Place-Based Studies Program with support from the Everglades National Park. The objective of this project is to develop and apply innovative remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to map the distribution of vegetation, vegetation characteristics, and related hydrologic variables through space and over time. The mapping and description of vegetation characteristics and their variations are necessary to accurately simulate surface hydrology and other surface processes in South Florida and to monitor land surface changes. As part of this research, data from many airborne and satellite imaging systems have been georeferenced and processed to facilitate data fusion and analysis. These image maps were created using image fusion techniques developed as part of this project.

Impact of microwave derived soil moisture on hydrologic simulations using a spatially distributed water balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, D. S.; Wood, E. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Mancini, M.

1994-01-01

Spatial distributions of soil moisture over an agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 60 ha were derived from two NASA microwave remote sensors, and then used as a feedback to determine the initial condition for a distributed water balance model. Simulated hydrologic fluxes over a period of twelve days were compared with field observations and with model predictions based on a streamflow derived initial condition. The results indicated that even the low resolution remotely sensed data can improve the hydrologic model's performance in simulating the dynamics of unsaturated zone soil moisture. For the particular watershed under study, the simulated water budget was not sensitive to the resolutions of the microwave sensors.

POLYNOMIAL-BASED DISAGGREGATION OF HOURLY RAINFALL FOR CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic modeling of urban watersheds for designs and analyses of stormwater conveyance facilities can be performed in either an event-based or continuous fashion. Continuous simulation requires, among other things, the use of a time series of rainfall amounts. However, for urb...

THE HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF A SMALL CATCHMENT TO CLEAR-CUTTING

EPA Science Inventory

We simulated how a landscape disturbance (e.g., fire or clear-cutting) alters hillslope and catchment hydrologic processes. Specifically, we simulated how the pattern and magnitude of tree removal in a catchment increases downslope transport of water and alters catchment soil moi...

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Simulation of hydrologic influences on wetland ecosystem succession. Master's thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pompilio, R.A.

1994-09-01

This research focuses on the development of a simulation model to determine the affects of hydrological influences on a wetland ecosystem. The model allows perturbations to the inputs of various wetland data which in turn, influences the successional development of the ecosystem. This research consisted of converting a grassland ecosystem model to one which simulates wetland conditions. The critical factor in determining the success of wetland creation is the hydrology of the system. There are four of the areas of the original model which are affected by the hydrology. The model measures the health or success of the ecosystem throughmore » the measurement of the systems gross plant production, the respiration and the net primary production of biomass. Altering the auxiliary variables of water level and the rate of flow through the system explicitly details the affects hydrologic influences on those production rates. Ten case tests depicting exogenous perturbations of the hydrology were run to identify these affects. Although the tests dealt with the fluctuation of water through the system, any one of the auxiliary variables in the model could be changed to reflect site specific data. Productivity, Hazardous material management, Hazardous material pharmacy.« less

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Multi-metric calibration of hydrological model to capture overall flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhang, Shifeng; Zhai, Xiaoyan; She, Dunxian

2016-08-01

Flow regimes (e.g., magnitude, frequency, variation, duration, timing and rating of change) play a critical role in water supply and flood control, environmental processes, as well as biodiversity and life history patterns in the aquatic ecosystem. The traditional flow magnitude-oriented calibration of hydrological model was usually inadequate to well capture all the characteristics of observed flow regimes. In this study, we simulated multiple flow regime metrics simultaneously by coupling a distributed hydrological model with an equally weighted multi-objective optimization algorithm. Two headwater watersheds in the arid Hexi Corridor were selected for the case study. Sixteen metrics were selected as optimization objectives, which could represent the major characteristics of flow regimes. Model performance was compared with that of the single objective calibration. Results showed that most metrics were better simulated by the multi-objective approach than those of the single objective calibration, especially the low and high flow magnitudes, frequency and variation, duration, maximum flow timing and rating. However, the model performance of middle flow magnitude was not significantly improved because this metric was usually well captured by single objective calibration. The timing of minimum flow was poorly predicted by both the multi-metric and single calibrations due to the uncertainties in model structure and input data. The sensitive parameter values of the hydrological model changed remarkably and the simulated hydrological processes by the multi-metric calibration became more reliable, because more flow characteristics were considered. The study is expected to provide more detailed flow information by hydrological simulation for the integrated water resources management, and to improve the simulation performances of overall flow regimes.

A study of application of remote sensing to river forecasting. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

A project is described whose goal was to define, implement and evaluate a pilot demonstration test to show the practicability of applying remotely sensed data to operational river forecasting in gaged or previously ungaged watersheds. A secondary objective was to provide NASA with documentation describing the computer programs that comprise the streamflow forecasting simulation model used. A computer-based simulation model was adapted to a streamflow forecasting application and implemented in an IBM System/360 Model 44 computer, operating in a dedicated mode, with operator interactive control through a Model 2250 keyboard/graphic CRT terminal. The test site whose hydrologic behavior was simulated is a small basin (365 square kilometers) designated Town Creek near Geraldine, Alabama.

Simulating the impacts of fire: A computer program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ffolliott, Peter F.; Guertin, D. Phillip; Rasmussen, William D.

1988-11-01

Recurrent fire has played a dominant role in the ecology of southwestern ponderosa pine forests. To assess the benefits or losses of fire in these forests, a computer simulation model, called BURN, considers vegetation (mortality, regeneration, and production of herbaceous vegetation), wildlife (populations and habitats), and hydrology (streamflow and water quality). In the formulation of the model, graphical representations (time-trend response curves) of increases or losses (compared to an unburned control) after the occurrence of fire are converted to fixedterm annual ratios, and then annuities for the simulation components. Annuity values higher than 1.0 indicate benefits, while annuity values lower than 1.0 indicate losses. Studies in southwestern ponderosa pine forests utilized in the development of BURN are described briefly.

Land-Use Analysis and Simulated Effects of Land-Use Change and Aggregate Mining on Groundwater Flow in the South Platte River Valley, Brighton to Fort Lupton, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.R.; Mladinich, C.S.; Langer, W.H.; Daniels, J.S.

2010-01-01

Land use in the South Platte River valley between the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, Colo., is undergoing change as urban areas expand, and the extent of aggregate mining in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area is increasing as the demand for aggregate grows in response to urban development. To improve understanding of land-use change and the potential effects of land-use change and aggregate mining on groundwater flow, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the cities of Brighton and Fort Lupton, analyzed socioeconomic and land-use trends and constructed a numerical groundwater flow model of the South Platte alluvial aquifer in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area. The numerical groundwater flow model was used to simulate (1) steady-state hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040, (2) transient cumulative hydrologic effects of the potential extent of reclaimed aggregate pits in 2020 and 2040, (3) transient hydrologic effects of actively dewatered aggregate pits, and (4) effects of different hypothetical pit spacings and configurations on groundwater levels. The SLEUTH (Slope, Land cover, Exclusion, Urbanization, Transportation, and Hillshade) urban-growth modeling program was used to predict the extent of urban area in 2020 and 2040. Wetlands in the Brighton-Fort Lupton area were mapped as part of the study, and mapped wetland locations and areas of riparian herbaceous vegetation previously mapped by the Colorado Division of Wildlife were compared to simulation results to indicate areas where wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation might be affected by groundwater-level changes resulting from land-use change or aggregate mining. Analysis of land-use conditions in 1957, 1977, and 2000 indicated that the general distribution of irrigated land and non-irrigated land remained similar from 1957 to 2000, but both land uses decreased as urban area increased. Urban area increased about 165 percent from 1957 to 1977 and about 56 percent from 1977 to 2000 with most urban growth occurring east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation corridors. Land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 predicted by the SLEUTH modeling program indicated urban growth will continue to develop primarily east of Brighton and Fort Lupton and along major transportation routes, but substantial urban growth also is predicted south and west of Brighton. Steady-state simulations of the hydrologic effects of predicted land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 indicated groundwater levels declined less than 2 feet relative to simulated groundwater levels in 2000. Groundwater levels declined most where irrigated land was converted to urban area and least where non-irrigated land was converted to urban area. Simulated groundwater-level declines resulting from land-use conditions in 2020 and 2040 are not predicted to substantially affect wetlands or riparian herbaceous vegetation in the study area because the declines are small and wetlands and riparian herbaceous vegetation generally are not located where simulated declines occur. See Report PDF for unabridged abstract.

Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. However, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate ...

Impact of model development, calibration and validation decisions on hydrological simulations in West Lake Erie Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Watershed simulation models are used extensively to investigate hydrologic processes, landuse and climate change impacts, pollutant load assessments and best management practices (BMPs). Developing, calibrating and validating these models require a number of critical decisions that will influence t...

APPLICATION OF A FULLY DISTRIBUTED WASHOFF AND TRANSPORT MODEL FOR A GULF COAST WATERSHED

EPA Science Inventory

Advances in hydrologic modeling have been shown to improve the accuracy of rainfall runoff simulation and prediction. Building on the capabilities of distributed hydrologic modeling, a water quality model was developed to simulate buildup, washoff, and advective transport of a co...

Modeling the hydrologic and economic efficacy of stormwater utility credit programs for US single family residences.

PubMed

Kertesz, Ruben; Green, Olivia Odom; Shuster, William D

2014-01-01

As regulatory pressure to reduce the environmental impact of urban stormwater intensifies, US municipalities increasingly seek a dedicated source of funding for stormwater programs, such as a stormwater utility. In rare instances, single family residences are eligible for utility discounts for installing green infrastructure. This study examined the hydrologic and economic efficacy of four such programs at the parcel scale: Cleveland (OH), Portland (OR), Fort Myers (FL), and Lynchburg (VA). Simulations were performed to model the reduction in stormwater runoff by implementing bioretention on a typical residential property according to extant administrative rules. The EPA National Stormwater Calculator was used to perform pre- vs post-retrofit comparisons and to demonstrate its ease of use for possible use by other cities in utility planning. Although surface slope, soil type and infiltration rate, impervious area, and bioretention parameters were different across cities, our results suggest that modeled runoff volume was most sensitive to percent of total impervious area that drained to the bioretention cell, with soil type the next most important factor. Findings also indicate a persistent gap between the percentage of annual runoff reduced and the percentage of fee reduced.

Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof-of-concept simulations

DOE PAGES

Painter, Scott L.; Coon, Ethan T.; Atchley, Adam L.; ...

2016-08-11

The need to understand potential climate impacts and feedbacks in Arctic regions has prompted recent interest in modeling of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. A new fine-scale integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology modeling capability is described and demonstrated in proof-of-concept simulations. The new modeling capability combines a surface energy balance model with recently developed three-dimensional subsurface thermal hydrology models and new models for nonisothermal surface water flows and snow distribution in the microtopography. Surface water flows are modeled using the diffusion wave equation extended to include energy transport and phase change of ponded water. Variation of snow depth in themore » microtopography, physically the result of wind scour, is also modeled heuristically with a diffusion wave equation. The multiple surface and subsurface processes are implemented by leveraging highly parallel community software. Fully integrated thermal hydrology simulations on the tilted open book catchment, an important test case for integrated surface/subsurface flow modeling, are presented. Fine-scale 100-year projections of the integrated permafrost thermal hydrological system on an ice wedge polygon at Barrow Alaska in a warming climate are also presented. Finally, these simulations demonstrate the feasibility of microtopography-resolving, process-rich simulations as a tool to help understand possible future evolution of the carbon-rich Arctic tundra in a warming climate.« less

Development of efficient and cost-effective distributed hydrological modeling tool MWEasyDHM based on open-source MapWindow GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Xiaohui; Wang, Yuhui; Liao, Weihong; Jiang, Yunzhong; Tian, Yu; Wang, Hao

2011-09-01

Many regions are still threatened with frequent floods and water resource shortage problems in China. Consequently, the task of reproducing and predicting the hydrological process in watersheds is hard and unavoidable for reducing the risks of damage and loss. Thus, it is necessary to develop an efficient and cost-effective hydrological tool in China as many areas should be modeled. Currently, developed hydrological tools such as Mike SHE and ArcSWAT (soil and water assessment tool based on ArcGIS) show significant power in improving the precision of hydrological modeling in China by considering spatial variability both in land cover and in soil type. However, adopting developed commercial tools in such a large developing country comes at a high cost. Commercial modeling tools usually contain large numbers of formulas, complicated data formats, and many preprocessing or postprocessing steps that may make it difficult for the user to carry out simulation, thus lowering the efficiency of the modeling process. Besides, commercial hydrological models usually cannot be modified or improved to be suitable for some special hydrological conditions in China. Some other hydrological models are open source, but integrated into commercial GIS systems. Therefore, by integrating hydrological simulation code EasyDHM, a hydrological simulation tool named MWEasyDHM was developed based on open-source MapWindow GIS, the purpose of which is to establish the first open-source GIS-based distributed hydrological model tool in China by integrating modules of preprocessing, model computation, parameter estimation, result display, and analysis. MWEasyDHM provides users with a friendly manipulating MapWindow GIS interface, selectable multifunctional hydrological processing modules, and, more importantly, an efficient and cost-effective hydrological simulation tool. The general construction of MWEasyDHM consists of four major parts: (1) a general GIS module for hydrological analysis, (2) a preprocessing module for modeling inputs, (3) a model calibration module, and (4) a postprocessing module. The general GIS module for hydrological analysis is developed on the basis of totally open-source GIS software, MapWindow, which contains basic GIS functions. The preprocessing module is made up of three submodules including a DEM-based submodule for hydrological analysis, a submodule for default parameter calculation, and a submodule for the spatial interpolation of meteorological data. The calibration module contains parallel computation, real-time computation, and visualization. The postprocessing module includes model calibration and model results spatial visualization using tabular form and spatial grids. MWEasyDHM makes it possible for efficient modeling and calibration of EasyDHM, and promises further development of cost-effective applications in various watersheds.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

Enhancing the water management schemes of H08 global hydrological model to attribute human water use to six major water sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water management, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the human water management schemes of the H08 GHM by incorporating the latest data and techniques. The model enables us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program and the water balance was always strictly closed at any place and time during the simulation period. Using this model, we first conducted a historical global hydrological simulation at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree to specify the sources of water for humanity. The results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628 km3yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839 km3yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789 km3yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786, 199, 106, and 1.8 km3yr-1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747 km3yr-1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607 and 182 km3yr-1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Second, we evaluated the water stress using our simulations and contrasted it with earlier global assessments based on empirical water scarcity indicators, namely, the Withdrawal to Availability ratio and the Falkenmark index (annual renewable water resources per capita). We found that inclusion of water infrastructures in our model diminished water stress in some parts of the world, on the other hand, daily evaluation of water supply and demand highlighted the temporal/seasonal water deficit due to their variations. The enhanced model is potentially useful for quantitative understanding of the global hydrological cycles including human activities and advancement of global water resources assessment.

The role of the antecedent soil moisture condition on the distributed hydrologic modelling of the Toce alpine basin floods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzani, G.; Montaldo, N.; Mancini, M.; Rosso, R.

2003-04-01

Event-based hydrologic models need the antecedent soil moisture condition, as critical boundary initial condition for flood simulation. Land-surface models (LSMs) have been developed to simulate mass and energy transfers, and to update the soil moisture condition through time from the solution of water and energy balance equations. They are recently used in distributed hydrologic modeling for flood prediction systems. Recent developments have made LSMs more complex by inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing parameter number and uncertainty of their estimates. This also led to increasing of computational burden and parameterization of the distributed hydrologic models. In this study we investigate: 1) the role of soil moisture initial conditions in the modeling of Alpine basin floods; 2) the adequate complexity level of LSMs for the distributed hydrologic modeling of Alpine basin floods. The Toce basin is the case study; it is located in the North Piedmont (Italian Alps), and it has a total drainage area of 1534 km2 at Candoglia section. Three distributed hydrologic models of different level of complexity are developed and compared: two (TDLSM and SDLSM) are continuous models, one (FEST02) is an event model based on the simplified SCS-CN method for rainfall abstractions. In the TDLSM model a two-layer LSM computes both saturation and infiltration excess runoff, and simulates the evolution of the water table spatial distribution using the topographic index; in the SDLSM model a simplified one-layer distributed LSM only computes hortonian runoff, and doesn’t simulate the water table dynamic. All the three hydrologic models simulate the surface runoff propagation through the Muskingum-Cunge method. TDLSM and SDLSM models have been applied for the two-year (1996 and 1997) simulation period, during which two major floods occurred in the November 1996 and in the June 1997. The models have been calibrated and tested comparing simulated and observed hydrographs at Candoglia. Sensitivity analysis of the models to significant LSM parameters were also performed. The performances of the three models in the simulation of the two major floods are compared. Interestingly, the results indicate that the SDLSM model is able to sufficiently well predict the major floods of this Alpine basin; indeed, this model is a good compromise between the over-parameterized and too complex TDLSM model and the over-simplified FEST02 model.

Application of large-scale, multi-resolution watershed modeling framework using the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In recent years, large-scale watershed modeling has been implemented broadly in the field of water resources planning and management. Complex hydrological, sediment, and nutrient processes can be simulated by sophisticated watershed simulation models for important issues such as water resources all...

Impact of number of realizations on the suitability of simulated weather data for hydrologic and environmental applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stochastic weather generators are widely used in hydrological, environmental, and agricultural applications to simulate and forecast weather time series. However, such stochastic processes usually produce random outputs hence the question on how representative the generated data are if obtained fro...

Improving Simulations of Extreme Flows by Coupling a Physically-based Hydrologic Model with a Machine Learning Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, K.; Islam, A. S.; Khan, M. J. U.; Das, M. K.

2017-12-01

With the large number of hydrologic models presently available along with the global weather and geographic datasets, streamflows of almost any river in the world can be easily modeled. And if a reasonable amount of observed data from that river is available, then simulations of high accuracy can sometimes be performed after calibrating the model parameters against those observed data through inverse modeling. Although such calibrated models can succeed in simulating the general trend or mean of the observed flows very well, more often than not they fail to adequately simulate the extreme flows. This causes difficulty in tasks such as generating reliable projections of future changes in extreme flows due to climate change, which is obviously an important task due to floods and droughts being closely connected to people's lives and livelihoods. We propose an approach where the outputs of a physically-based hydrologic model are used as an input to a machine learning model to try and better simulate the extreme flows. To demonstrate this offline-coupling approach, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the physically-based hydrologic model, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the machine learning model and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system as the study area. The GBM river system, located in South Asia, is the third largest in the world in terms of freshwater generated and forms the largest delta in the world. The flows of the GBM rivers were simulated separately in order to test the performance of this proposed approach in accurately simulating the extreme flows generated by different basins that vary in size, climate, hydrology and anthropogenic intervention on stream networks. Results show that by post-processing the simulated flows of the SWAT models with ANN models, simulations of extreme flows can be significantly improved. The mean absolute errors in simulating annual maximum/minimum daily flows were minimized from 4967 cusecs to 1294 cusecs for Ganges, from 5695 cusecs to 2115 cusecs for Brahmaputra and from 689 cusecs to 321 cusecs for Meghna. Using this approach, simulations of hydrologic variables other than streamflow can also be improved given that a decent amount of observed data for that variable is available.

User's guide for MAGIC-Meteorologic and hydrologic genscn (generate scenarios) input converter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortel, Terry W.; Martin, Angel

2010-01-01

Meteorologic and hydrologic data used in watershed modeling studies are collected by various agencies and organizations, and stored in various formats. Data may be in a raw, un-processed format with little or no quality control, or may be checked for validity before being made available. Flood-simulation systems require data in near real-time so that adequate flood warnings can be made. Additionally, forecasted data are needed to operate flood-control structures to potentially mitigate flood damages. Because real-time data are of a provisional nature, missing data may need to be estimated for use in floodsimulation systems. The Meteorologic and Hydrologic GenScn (Generate Scenarios) Input Converter (MAGIC) can be used to convert data from selected formats into the Hydrologic Simulation System-Fortran hourly-observations format for input to a Watershed Data Management database, for use in hydrologic modeling studies. MAGIC also can reformat the data to the Full Equations model time-series format, for use in hydraulic modeling studies. Examples of the application of MAGIC for use in the flood-simulation system for Salt Creek in northeastern Illinois are presented in this report.

Evaluating the spatial distribution of water balance in a small watershed, Pennsylvania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhongbo; Gburek, W. J.; Schwartz, F. W.

2000-04-01

A conceptual water-balance model was modified from a point application to be distributed for evaluating the spatial distribution of watershed water balance based on daily precipitation, temperature and other hydrological parameters. The model was calibrated by comparing simulated daily variation in soil moisture with field observed data and results of another model that simulates the vertical soil moisture flow by numerically solving Richards' equation. The impacts of soil and land use on the hydrological components of the water balance, such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficit, runoff and subsurface drainage, were evaluated with the calibrated model in this study. Given the same meteorological conditions and land use, the soil moisture deficit, evapotranspiration and surface runoff increase, and subsurface drainage decreases, as the available water capacity of soil increases. Among various land uses, alfalfa produced high soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration and lower surface runoff and subsurface drainage, whereas soybeans produced an opposite trend. The simulated distribution of various hydrological components shows the combined effect of soil and land use. Simulated hydrological components compare well with observed data. The study demonstrated that the distributed water balance approach is efficient and has advantages over the use of single average value of hydrological variables and the application at a single point in the traditional practice.

Development of a hydrological model for simulation of runoff from catchments unbounded by ridge lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vema, Vamsikrishna; Sudheer, K. P.; Chaubey, I.

2017-08-01

Watershed hydrological models are effective tools for simulating the hydrological processes in the watershed. Although there are a plethora of hydrological models, none of them can be directly applied to make water conservation decisions in irregularly bounded areas that do not confirm to topographically defined ridge lines. This study proposes a novel hydrological model that can be directly applied to any catchment, with or without ridge line boundaries. The model is based on the water balance concept, and a linear function concept to approximate the cross-boundary flow from upstream areas to the administrative catchment under consideration. The developed model is tested in 2 watersheds - Riesel Experimental Watershed and a sub-basin of Cedar Creek Watershed in Texas, USA. Hypothetical administrative catchments that did not confirm to the location of ridge lines were considered for verifying the efficacy of the model for hydrologic simulations. The linear function concept used to account the cross boundary flow was based on the hypothesis that the flow coming from outside the boundary to administrative area was proportional to the flow generated in the boundary grid cell. The model performance was satisfactory with an NSE and r2 of ≥0.80 and a PBIAS of <25 in all the cases. The simulated hydrographs for the administrative catchments of the watersheds were in good agreement with the observed hydrographs, indicating a satisfactory performance of the model in the administratively bounded areas.

Land Use Management in the Panama Canal Watershed to Maximize Hydrologic Ecosystem Services Benefits: Explicit Simulation of Preferential Flow Paths in an HPC Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regina, J. A.; Ogden, F. L.; Steinke, R. C.; Frazier, N.; Cheng, Y.; Zhu, J.

2017-12-01

Preferential flow paths (PFP) resulting from biotic and abiotic factors contribute significantly to the generation of runoff in moist lowland tropical watersheds. Flow through PFPs represents the dominant mechanism by which land use choices affect hydrological behavior. The relative influence of PFP varies depending upon land-use management practices. Assessing the possible effects of land-use and landcover change on flows, and other ecosystem services, in the humid tropics partially depends on adequate simulation of PFP across different land-uses. Currently, 5% of global trade passes through the Panama Canal, which is supplied with fresh water from the Panama Canal Watershed. A third set of locks, recently constructed, are expected to double the capacity of the Canal. We incorporated explicit simulation of PFPs in to the ADHydro HPC distributed hydrological model to simulate the effects of land-use and landcover change due to land management incentives on water resources availability in the Panama Canal Watershed. These simulations help to test hypotheses related to the effectiveness of various proposed payments for ecosystem services schemes. This presentation will focus on hydrological model formulation and performance in an HPC environment.

Hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes over the Three-North region of China: implication for the forestation programs in arid and semiarid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, X.; Liang, S.

2013-12-01

The Three-North region of China, including the northeastern, northern, and northwestern areas, covers an area of more than three million square kilometers. This region is featured for its arid and semiarid environments with annual rainfall less than 450 mm. During the past few decades, the Three-North region has experienced noticeable water-cycle variations owing to the climate and land use changes. Typically, several large-scale forestation programs such as the Three Norths Forest Shelterbelt Program began since late 1970s, have been implemented across this region in order to solve desertification and dust storm problems, and to combat the loss of water and soil. These programs raised debates, however, because their effectiveness does not likely achieve what was expected and they even imposed negative influences on the eco-hydrologic system in some areas. Currently most studies were based on in-situ measurements and individual catchments and primarily attributed the water-cycle variations to the forestation. In this study we attempt to evaluate the impact of combined climate and land use changes using remote sensing data and a sophisticated land surface model, i.e., the Three-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L). Four land use maps derived from Landsat TM images for 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 were used to detect the land use changes in the three-north regions, and leaf area index (LAI) from the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) LAI product was employed to assess the land cover change and the effect of forestation programs. After model calibration and validation based on gauged streamflow and evapotranspiration from China FluxNet, a series of simulation scenarios were designed to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration and to identify each contribution to water fluxes. It was found that within the study area as a whole, LAI shows an increasing trend during 1980-2009 in response to the forestation programs. However, the hydrologic variables (i.e., the soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration) in northern and northwestern regions are more significantly affected by the precipitation and temperature than by the land use changes, although the impacts of land use change are uneven across the entire region. So, the forestation probably plays a modest role in the hydrologic system.

The impacts of precipitation amount simulation on hydrological modeling in Nordic watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Brissette, Fancois; Chen, Jie

2013-04-01

Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation is very important for hydrological modeling, especially when no observed data are available. Precipitation is usually modeled by two component model: occurrence generation and amount simulation. For occurrence simulation, the most common method is the first-order two-state Markov chain due to its simplification and good performance. However, various probability distributions have been reported to simulate precipitation amount, and spatiotemporal differences exist in the applicability of different distribution models. Therefore, assessing the applicability of different distribution models is necessary in order to provide more accurate precipitation information. Six precipitation probability distributions (exponential, Gamma, Weibull, skewed normal, mixed exponential, and hybrid exponential/Pareto distributions) are directly and indirectly evaluated on their ability to reproduce the original observed time series of precipitation amount. Data from 24 weather stations and two watersheds (Chute-du-Diable and Yamaska watersheds) in the province of Quebec (Canada) are used for this assessment. Various indices or statistics, such as the mean, variance, frequency distribution and extreme values are used to quantify the performance in simulating the precipitation and discharge. Performance in reproducing key statistics of the precipitation time series is well correlated to the number of parameters of the distribution function, and the three-parameter precipitation models outperform the other models, with the mixed exponential distribution being the best at simulating daily precipitation. The advantage of using more complex precipitation distributions is not as clear-cut when the simulated time series are used to drive a hydrological model. While the advantage of using functions with more parameters is not nearly as obvious, the mixed exponential distribution appears nonetheless as the best candidate for hydrological modeling. The implications of choosing a distribution function with respect to hydrological modeling and climate change impact studies are also discussed.

How much expert knowledge is it worth to put in conceptual hydrological models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonetti, Manuel; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Both modellers and experimentalists agree on using expert knowledge to improve our conceptual hydrological simulations on ungauged basins. However, they use expert knowledge differently for both hydrologically mapping the landscape and parameterising a given hydrological model. Modellers use generally very simplified (e.g. topography-based) mapping approaches and put most of the knowledge for constraining the model by defining parameter and process relational rules. In contrast, experimentalists tend to invest all their detailed and qualitative knowledge about processes to obtain a spatial distribution of areas with different dominant runoff generation processes (DRPs) as realistic as possible, and for defining plausible narrow value ranges for each model parameter. Since, most of the times, the modelling goal is exclusively to simulate runoff at a specific site, even strongly simplified hydrological classifications can lead to satisfying results due to equifinality of hydrological models, overfitting problems and the numerous uncertainty sources affecting runoff simulations. Therefore, to test to which extent expert knowledge can improve simulation results under uncertainty, we applied a typical modellers' modelling framework relying on parameter and process constraints defined based on expert knowledge to several catchments on the Swiss Plateau. To map the spatial distribution of the DRPs, mapping approaches with increasing involvement of expert knowledge were used. Simulation results highlighted the potential added value of using all the expert knowledge available on a catchment. Also, combinations of event types and landscapes, where even a simplified mapping approach can lead to satisfying results, were identified. Finally, the uncertainty originated by the different mapping approaches was compared with the one linked to meteorological input data and catchment initial conditions.

Towards an integrated model of floodplain hydrology representing feedbacks and anthropogenic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Voisin, N.; O'Loughlin, F.; Tesfa, T. K.; Bates, P.

2017-12-01

The exchange of water between hillslopes, river channels and floodplain can be quite complex and the difficulty in capturing the mechanisms behind it is exacerbated by the impact of human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operations. Although there has been a vast body of work on modeling hydrological processes, most of the resulting models have been limited with regards to aspects of the coupled human-natural system. For example, hydrologic models that represent processes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration, interception and groundwater dynamics often neglect anthropogenic effects or do not adequately represent the inherently two-dimensional floodplain flow. We present an integrated modeling framework that is comprised of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, and the Water resources Management (WM) model. The VIC model solves the energy and water balance over a gridded domain and simulates a number of hydrologic features such as snow, frozen soils, lakes and wetlands, while also representing irrigation demand from cropland areas. LISFLOOD-FP solves an approximation of the Saint-Venant equations to efficiently simulate flow in river channels and the floodplain. The implementation of WM accommodates a variety of operating rules in reservoirs and withdrawals due to consumptive demands, allowing the successful simulation of regulated flow. The models are coupled so as to allow feedbacks between their corresponding processes, therefore providing the ability to test different hypotheses about the floodplain hydrology of large-scale basins. We test this integrated framework over the Zambezi River basin by simulating its hydrology from 2000-2010, and evaluate the results against remotely sensed observations. Finally, we examine the sensitivity of streamflow and water inundation to changes in reservoir operations, precipitation and temperature.

Calibration by Hydrological Response Unit of a National Hydrologic Model to Improve Spatial Representation and Distribution of Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, P. A., II

2015-12-01

The U. S. Geological Survey is developing a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support consistent hydrologic modeling across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulates daily hydrologic and energy processes in watersheds, and is used for the NHM application. For PRMS each watershed is divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs); by default each HRU is assumed to have a uniform hydrologic response. The Geospatial Fabric (GF) is a database containing initial parameter values for input to PRMS and was created for the NHM. The parameter values in the GF were derived from datasets that characterize the physical features of the entire CONUS. The NHM application is composed of more than 100,000 HRUs from the GF. Selected parameter values commonly are adjusted by basin in PRMS using an automated calibration process based on calibration targets, such as streamflow. Providing each HRU with distinct values that captures variability within the CONUS may improve simulation performance of the NHM. During calibration of the NHM by HRU, selected parameter values are adjusted for PRMS based on calibration targets, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent (SWE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET). Simulated SWE, AET, and runoff were compared to value ranges derived from multiple sources (e.g. the Snow Data Assimilation System, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (i.e. MODIS) Global Evapotranspiration Project, the Simplified Surface Energy Balance model, and the Monthly Water Balance Model). This provides each HRU with a distinct set of parameter values that captures the variability within the CONUS, leading to improved model performance. We present simulation results from the NHM after preliminary calibration, including the results of basin-level calibration for the NHM using: 1) default initial GF parameter values, and 2) parameter values calibrated by HRU.

Predicting foraging wading bird populations in Everglades National Park from seasonal hydrologic statistics under different management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Engel, Vic

2011-09-01

The ability to map relationships between ecological outcomes and hydrologic conditions in the Everglades National Park (ENP) is a key building block for their restoration program, a primary goal of which is to improve conditions for wading birds. This paper presents a model linking wading bird foraging numbers to hydrologic conditions in the ENP. Seasonal hydrologic statistics derived from a single water level recorder are well correlated with water depths throughout most areas of the ENP, and are effective as predictors of wading bird numbers when using a nonlinear hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the conditional distribution of bird populations. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure. Parameter and model uncertainty is assessed as a byproduct of the estimation process. Water depths at the beginning of the nesting season, the average dry season water level, and the numbers of reversals from the dry season recession are identified as significant predictors, consistent with the hydrologic conditions considered important in the production and concentration of prey organisms in this system. Long-term hydrologic records at the index location allow for a retrospective analysis (1952-2006) of foraging bird numbers showing low frequency oscillations in response to decadal fluctuations in hydroclimatic conditions. Simulations of water levels at the index location used in the Bayesian model under alternative water management scenarios allow the posterior probability distributions of the number of foraging birds to be compared, thus providing a mechanism for linking management schemes to seasonal rainfall forecasts.

Effects of timber management on the hydrology of wetland forests in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; James P. Shepard; Devendra M. Amatya; Hans Riekerk; Nicholas B. Comerford; Wayne Skaggs; Lloyd Swift

2001-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to review the hydrologic impacts of various common forest management practices that include harvesting, site preparation, and drainage. Field hydrological data collected during the past 5±10 years from ten forested wetland sites across the southern US are synthesized using various methods including hydrologic simulation models and...

Estimating postfire water production in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Donald F. Potts; David L. Peterson; Hans R. Zuuring

1989-01-01

Two hydrologic models were adapted to estimate postfire changer in water yield in Pacific Northwest watersheds. The WRENSS version of the simulation model PROSPER is used for hydrologic regimes dominated by rainfall: it calculates water available for streamflow onthe basis of seasonal precipitation and leaf area index. The WRENSS version of the simulation model WATBAL...

Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

2012-06-01

Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated hydrologic simulation provides a valuable addition for hydrologic modelling as well as for crop modelling.

Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

2011-12-01

Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

Multi-objective Calibration of DHSVM Based on Hydrologic Key Elements in Jinhua River Basin, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Liu, L.; Xu, Y. P.

2017-12-01

Abstract: In physically based distributed hydrological model, large number of parameters, representing spatial heterogeneity of watershed and various processes in hydrologic cycle, are involved. For lack of calibration module in Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, this study developed a multi-objective calibration module using Epsilon-Dominance Non-Dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) and based on parallel computing of Linux cluster for DHSVM (ɛP-DHSVM). In this study, two hydrologic key elements (i.e., runoff and evapotranspiration) are used as objectives in multi-objective calibration of model. MODIS evapotranspiration obtained by SEBAL is adopted to fill the gap of lack of observation for evapotranspiration. The results show that good performance of runoff simulation in single objective calibration cannot ensure good simulation performance of other hydrologic key elements. Self-developed ɛP-DHSVM model can make multi-objective calibration more efficiently and effectively. The running speed can be increased by more than 20-30 times via applying ɛP-DHSVM. In addition, runoff and evapotranspiration can be simulated very well simultaneously by ɛP-DHSVM, with superior values for two efficiency coefficients (0.74 for NS of runoff and 0.79 for NS of evapotranspiration, -10.5% and -8.6% for PBIAS of runoff and evapotranspiration respectively).

Adaptations of a physical-based hydrological model for alpine catchments. Application to the upper Durance catchment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafaysse, Matthieu; Hingray, Benoit

2010-05-01

The impact of global change on water resources is expected to be especially pronounced in mountainous areas. Future hydrological scenarios required for impact studies are classically simulated with hydrological models from future meteorological scenarios based on GCMs outputs. Future hydrological regimes of French rivers were estimated following this methodology by Boé et al. (2009) with the physical-based hydrological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM), developed by Météo-France. Scenarios obtained for the Alps seem however not very reliable due to the poor performance achieved by the model for the present climate over this region. This work presents possible improvements of SIM for a more relevant simulation of alpine catchments hydrological behavior. Results obtained for the upper Durance catchment (3580 km2) are given for illustration. This catchment is located in Southern French Alps. Its outlet is the Serre-Ponçon lake, a large dam operated for hydropower production, with a key role for water supply in southeastern France. With altitudes ranging from 700 to 4100 meters, the catchment presents highly seasonal flows: minimum and maximum discharges are observed in winter and spring respectively due to snow accumulation and melt, low flows are sustained by glacier melt in late summer (39 km2 are covered by glaciers), major floods can be observed in fall due to large liquid precipitation amounts. Two main limitations of SIM were identified for this catchment. First the 8km-side grid discretization gives a bad representation of the spatial variability of hydrological processes induced by elevation and orientation. Then, low flows are not well represented because the model doesn't include deep storage in aquifers nor ice melt from glaciers. We modified SIM accordingly. For the first point, we applied a discretization based on topography : we divided the catchment in 9 sub-catchments and further 300 meters elevation bands. The vertical variability of meteorological inputs and vegetation cover could be thus better accounted for. Then, each elevation band is divided in 7 exposure classes, in order to represent the influence on snow cover of the solar radiation spatial variability . This discretisation results in 539 Hydrological Units where hydrological processes are assumed to be homogeneous. For the second point, we first included the possibility for glacier melt in previous discretization. We next added a conceptual non-linear underground reservoir in order to simulate water retention by aquifers. These adaptations lead to a clear improvement of simulations for all the hydrometric stations. Daily simulated discharges fit well with measurements (Nash score = 0.8). The model has a good ability to simulate interannual variability and it is robust under a long simulation period (1959-2006). This encourages us to use it in a modified climate context. We studied the effect of each model improvement with a set of sensitivity tests. Accounting for elevation bands allows simulating more persistent snow cover at high altitudes, contributing later to river flows. Adding underground storage leads to delay the snowmelt runoff transfer in river. The exposure influence is not so sensitive for discharges simulation, but it gives a more accurate description of the spatial variability of snow cover. Although glaciered areas are very small compared to total basin area, a better simulation of summer low flows is obtained including a glacier melt module. Despite previous improvements, winter low flows are still slightly underestimated. As suggested by a simple sensitivity analysis, this could be partly due to the fact that the model doesn't correctly simulate basal snowmelt by ground heat flow.

South Florida Everglades: satellite image map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Thomas, Jean-Claude; Desmond, G.B.

2001-01-01

These satellite image maps are one product of the USGS Land Characteristics from Remote Sensing project, funded through the USGS Place-Based Studies Program (http://access.usgs.gov/) with support from the Everglades National Park (http://www.nps.gov/ever/). The objective of this project is to develop and apply innovative remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to map the distribution of vegetation, vegetation characteristics, and related hydrologic variables through space and over time. The mapping and description of vegetation characteristics and their variations are necessary to accurately simulate surface hydrology and other surface processes in South Florida and to monitor land surface changes. As part of this research, data from many airborne and satellite imaging systems have been georeferenced and processed to facilitate data fusion and analysis. These image maps were created using image fusion techniques developed as part of this project.

An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

On the information content of hydrological signatures and their relationship to catchment attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Clark, Martyn P.; Prieto, Cristina; Newman, Andrew J.; Mizukami, Naoki; Nearing, Grey; Le Vine, Nataliya

2017-04-01

Hydrological signatures, which are indices characterizing hydrologic behavior, are increasingly used for the evaluation, calibration and selection of hydrological models. Their key advantage is to provide more direct insights into specific hydrological processes than aggregated metrics (e.g., the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency). A plethora of signatures now exists, which enable characterizing a variety of hydrograph features, but also makes the selection of signatures for new studies challenging. Here we propose that the selection of signatures should be based on their information content, which we estimated using several approaches, all leading to similar conclusions. To explore the relationship between hydrological signatures and the landscape, we extended a previously published data set of hydrometeorological time series for 671 catchments in the contiguous United States, by characterizing the climatic conditions, topography, soil, vegetation and stream network of each catchment. This new catchment attributes data set will soon be in open access, and we are looking forward to introducing it to the community. We used this data set in a data-learning algorithm (random forests) to explore whether hydrological signatures could be inferred from catchment attributes alone. We find that some signatures can be predicted remarkably well by random forests and, interestingly, the same signatures are well captured when simulating discharge using a conceptual hydrological model. We discuss what this result reveals about our understanding of hydrological processes shaping hydrological signatures. We also identify which catchment attributes exert the strongest control on catchment behavior, in particular during extreme hydrological events. Overall, climatic attributes have the most significant influence, and strongly condition how well hydrological signatures can be predicted by random forests and simulated by the hydrological model. In contrast, soil characteristics at the catchment scale are not found to be significant predictors by random forests, which raises questions on how to best use soil data for hydrological modeling, for instance for parameter estimation. We finally demonstrate that signatures with high spatial variability are poorly captured by random forests and model simulations, which makes their regionalization delicate. We conclude with a ranking of signatures based on their information content, and propose that the signatures with high information content are best suited for model calibration, model selection and understanding hydrologic similarity.

Stochastic Simulation and Forecast of Hydrologic Time Series Based on Probabilistic Chaos Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Ghaith, M.

2017-12-01

Hydrological processes are characterized by many complex features, such as nonlinearity, dynamics and uncertainty. How to quantify and address such complexities and uncertainties has been a challenging task for water engineers and managers for decades. To support robust uncertainty analysis, an innovative approach for the stochastic simulation and forecast of hydrologic time series is developed is this study. Probabilistic Chaos Expansions (PCEs) are established through probabilistic collocation to tackle uncertainties associated with the parameters of traditional hydrological models. The uncertainties are quantified in model outputs as Hermite polynomials with regard to standard normal random variables. Sequentially, multivariate analysis techniques are used to analyze the complex nonlinear relationships between meteorological inputs (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc.) and the coefficients of the Hermite polynomials. With the established relationships between model inputs and PCE coefficients, forecasts of hydrologic time series can be generated and the uncertainties in the future time series can be further tackled. The proposed approach is demonstrated using a case study in China and is compared to a traditional stochastic simulation technique, the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) method. Results show that the proposed approach can serve as a reliable proxy to complicated hydrological models. It can provide probabilistic forecasting in a more computationally efficient manner, compared to the traditional MCMC method. This work provides technical support for addressing uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling and for enhancing the reliability of hydrological modeling results. Applications of the developed approach can be extended to many other complicated geophysical and environmental modeling systems to support the associated uncertainty quantification and risk analysis.

Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism: from a lumped to a semi-distributed approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Gottardi, Fréderic; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël; Paquet, Emmanuel; Mathevet, Thibault

2017-08-01

Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performance. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate between different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific streamflow signatures (e.g., low and high flow) and multi-variable predictions (e.g., soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of a hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation available in both lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimation. Comparison of the models is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criterion split-sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration-validation performance for the snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation, especially for nival catchments.

Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

2017-10-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

Facilitating hydrological data analysis workflows in R: the RHydro package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buytaert, Wouter; Moulds, Simon; Skoien, Jon; Pebesma, Edzer; Reusser, Dominik

2015-04-01

The advent of new technologies such as web-services and big data analytics holds great promise for hydrological data analysis and simulation. Driven by the need for better water management tools, it allows for the construction of much more complex workflows, that integrate more and potentially more heterogeneous data sources with longer tool chains of algorithms and models. With the scientific challenge of designing the most adequate processing workflow comes the technical challenge of implementing the workflow with a minimal risk for errors. A wide variety of new workbench technologies and other data handling systems are being developed. At the same time, the functionality of available data processing languages such as R and Python is increasing at an accelerating pace. Because of the large diversity of scientific questions and simulation needs in hydrology, it is unlikely that one single optimal method for constructing hydrological data analysis workflows will emerge. Nevertheless, languages such as R and Python are quickly gaining popularity because they combine a wide array of functionality with high flexibility and versatility. The object-oriented nature of high-level data processing languages makes them particularly suited for the handling of complex and potentially large datasets. In this paper, we explore how handling and processing of hydrological data in R can be facilitated further by designing and implementing a set of relevant classes and methods in the experimental R package RHydro. We build upon existing efforts such as the sp and raster packages for spatial data and the spacetime package for spatiotemporal data to define classes for hydrological data (HydroST). In order to handle simulation data from hydrological models conveniently, a HM class is defined. Relevant methods are implemented to allow for an optimal integration of the HM class with existing model fitting and simulation functionality in R. Lastly, we discuss some of the design challenges of the RHydro package, including integration with big data technologies, web technologies, and emerging data models in hydrology.

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Incorporating Climate Change Predictions into Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategies (WRAPS) in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, M. P.; Foreman, C. S.

2014-12-01

Development of the Watershed Restoration and Protection Strategies (WRAPS) for the Pine and Leech Lake River Watersheds is underway in Minnesota. Project partners participating in this effort include the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA), Crow Wing Soil and Water Conservation District (SWCD), Cass County, and other local partners. These watersheds are located in the Northern Lakes and Forest ecoregion of Minnesota and drain to the Upper Mississippi River. To support the Pine and Leech Lake River WRAPS, watershed-scale hydrologic and water-quality models were developed with Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF). The HSPF model applications simulate hydrology (discharge, stage), as well as a number of water quality constituents (sediment, temperature, organic and inorganic nitrogen, total ammonia, organic and inorganic phosphorus, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand, and algae) continuously for the period 1995-2009 and provide predictions at points of interest within the watersheds, such as observation gages, management boundaries, compliance points, and impaired water body endpoints. The model applications were used to evaluate phosphorus loads to surface waters under resource management scenarios, which were based on water quality threats that were identified at stakeholder meetings. Simulations of land use changes including conversion of forests to agriculture, shoreline development, and full build-out of cities show a watershed-wide phosphorus increases of up to 80%. The retention of 1.1 inches of runoff from impervious surfaces was not enough to mitigate the projected phosphorus load increases. Changes in precipitation projected by climate change models led to a 20% increase in annual watershed phosphorus loads. The scenario results will inform the implementation strategies selected for the WRAPS.

Impact of hydrological variations on modeling of peatland CO2 fluxes: Results from the North American Carbon Program site synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, Benjamin N.; Desai, Ankur R.; Schroeder, Nicole M.; Ricciuto, Dan; Barr, Alan; Richardson, Andrew D.; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Grant, Robert F.; Poulter, Benjamin; Verbeeck, Hans; Ciais, Philippe; Ringeval, Bruno; Baker, Ian T.; Schaefer, Kevin; Luo, Yiqi; Weng, Ensheng

2012-03-01

Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pools and vulnerability to hydrological change. Use of non-peatland-specific models could lead to bias in modeling studies of peatland-rich regions. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2fluxes at three wetland sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor,sphagnum-dominated bog, over periods between 1999 and 2007. Models consistently overestimated mean annual gross ecosystem production (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at all three sites. Monthly flux residuals (simulated - observed) were correlated with measured water table for GEP and ER at the two fen sites, but were not consistently correlated with water table at the bog site. Models that inhibited soil respiration under saturated conditions had less mean bias than models that did not. Modeled diurnal cycles agreed well with eddy covariance measurements at fen sites, but overestimated fluxes at the bog site. Eddy covariance GEP and ER at fens were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while models predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP did not depend on water table, while simulated GEP was higher during wet periods. Carbon cycle modeling in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating wetland-specific hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct plant and soil parameterizations in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

Establishing a Framework for Community Modeling in Hydrologic Science: Recommendations from the CUAHSI CHyMP Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrigo, J. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Murdoch, L. C.; Lakshmi, V.; Hooper, R. P.

2012-12-01

The Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) continues a major effort towards supporting Community Hydrologic Modeling. From 2009 - 2011, the Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform (CHyMP) initiative held three workshops, the ultimate goal of which was to produce recommendations and an implementation plan to establish a community modeling program that enables comprehensive simulation of water anywhere on the North American continent. Such an effort would include connections to and advances in global climate models, biogeochemistry, and efforts of other disciplines that require an understanding of water patterns and processes in the environment. To achieve such a vision will require substantial investment in human and cyber-infrastructure and significant advances in the science of hydrologic modeling and spatial scaling. CHyMP concluded with a final workshop, held March 2011, and produced several recommendations. CUAHSI and the university community continue to advance community modeling and implement these recommendations through several related and follow on efforts. Key results from the final 2011 workshop included agreement among participants that the community is ready to move forward with implementation. It is recognized that initial implementation of this larger effort can begin with simulation capabilities that currently exist, or that can be easily developed. CHyMP identified four key activities in support of community modeling: benchmarking, dataset evaluation and development, platform evaluation, and developing a national water model framework. Key findings included: 1) The community supported the idea of a National Water Model framework; a community effort is needed to explore what the ultimate implementation of a National Water Model is. A true community modeling effort would support the modeling of "water anywhere" and would include all relevant scales and processes. 2) Implementation of a community modeling program could initially focus on continental scale modeling of water quantity (rather than quality). The goal of this initial model is the comprehensive description of water stores and fluxes in such a way to permit linkage to GCM's, biogeochemical, ecological, and geomorphic models. This continental scale focus allows systematic evaluation of our current state of knowledge and data, leverages existing efforts done by large scale modelers, contributes to scientific discovery that informs globally and societal relevant questions, and provides an initial framework to evaluate hydrologic information relevant to other disciplines and a structure into which to incorporate other classes of hydrologic models. 3) Dataset development will be a key aspect of any successful national water model implementation. Our current knowledge of the subsurface is limiting our ability to truly integrate soil and groundwater into large scale models, and to answering critical science questions with societal relevance (i.e. groundwater's influence on climate). 4) The CHyMP workshops and efforts to date have achieved collaboration between university scientists, government agencies and the private sector that must be maintained. Follow on efforts in community modeling should aim at leveraging and maintaining this collaboration for maximum scientific and societal benefit.

HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2014-01-01

To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VICmore » simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.« less

Hydrological changes in the Amur river basin: two approaches for assignment of climate projections into hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander; Kalugin, Andrei; Motovilov, Yury

2017-04-01

A regional hydrological model was setup to assess possible impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Amur drainage basin (the catchment area is 1 855 000 km2). The model is based on the ECOMAG hydrological modeling platform and describes spatially distributed processes of water cycle in this great basin with account for flow regulation by the Russian and Chinese reservoirs. Earlier, the regional hydrological model was intensively evaluated against 20-year streamflow data over the whole Amur basin and, being driven by 252-station meteorological observations as input data, demonstrated good performance. In this study, we firstly assessed the reliability of the model to reproduce the historical streamflow series when Global Climate Model (GCM) simulation data are used as input into the hydrological model. Data of nine GCMs involved in CMIP5 project was utilized and we found that ensemble mean of annual flow is close to the observed flow (error is about 14%) while data of separate GCMs may result in much larger errors. Reproduction of seasonal flow for the historical period turned out weaker; first of all because of large errors in simulated seasonal precipitation, so hydrological consequences of climate change were estimated just in terms of annual flow. We analyzed the hydrological projections from the climate change scenarios. The impacts were assessed in four 20-year periods: early- (2020-2039), mid- (2040-2059) and two end-century (2060-2079; 2080-2099) periods using an ensemble of nine GCMs and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Mean annual runoff anomalies calculated as percentages of the future runoff (simulated under 36 GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios) to the historical runoff (simulated under the corresponding GCM outputs for the reference 1986-2005 period) were estimated. Hydrological model gave small negative runoff anomalies for almost all GCM-RCP combinations of climate scenarios and for all 20-year periods. The largest ensemble mean anomaly was about minus 8% by the end of XXI century under the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. We compared the mean annual runoff anomalies projected under the GCM-based data for the XXI century with the corresponding anomalies projected under a modified observed climatology using the delta-change (DC) method. Use of the modified observed records as driving forces for hydrological model-based projections can be considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if the latter are uncertain. The main advantage of the DC approach is its simplicity: in its simplest version only differences between present and future climates (i.e. between the long-term means of the climatic variables) are considered as DC-factors. In this study, the DC-factors for the reference meteorological series (1986-2005) of climate parameters were calculated from the GCM-based scenarios. The modified historical data were used as input into the hydrological models. For each of four 20-year period, runoff anomalies simulated under the delta-changed historical time series were compared with runoff anomalies simulated under the corresponding GCM-data with the same mean. We found that the compared projections are closely correlated. Thus, for the Amur basin, the modified observed climatology can be used as driving force for hydrological model-based projections and considered as an alternative to the GCM-based scenarios if only annual flow projections are of the interest.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

1994-01-01

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

The western arctic linkage experiment (WALE): overview and synthesis

Treesearch

A.D. McGuire; J. Walsh; J.S. Kimball; J.S. Clein; S.E. Euskirdhen; S. Drobot; U.C. Herzfeld; J. Maslanik; R.B. Lammers; M.A. Rawlins; C.J. Vorosmarty; T.S. Rupp; W. Wu; M. Calef

2008-01-01

The primary goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was to better understand uncertainties of simulated hydrologic and ecosystem dynamics of the western Arctic in the context of 1) uncertainties in the data available to drive the models and 2) different approaches to simulating regional hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Analyses of datasets on climate...

Surface-water hydrology and runoff simulations for three basins in Pierce County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.

1996-01-01

The surface-water hydrology in Clear, Clarks, and Clover Creek Basins in central Pierce County, Washington, is described with a conceptual model of the runoff processes and then simulated with the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a continuous, deterministic hydrologic model. The study area is currently undergoing a rapid conversion of rural, undeveloped land to urban and suburban land that often changes the flow characteristics of the streams that drain these lands. The complex interactions of land cover, climate, soils, topography, channel characteristics, and ground- water flow patterns determine the surface-water hydrology of the study area and require a complex numerical model to assess the impact of urbanization on streamflows. The U.S. Geological Survey completed this investigation in cooperation with the Storm Drainage and Surface Water Management Utility within the Pierce County Department of Public Works to describe the important rainfall-runoff processes within the study area and to develop a simulation model to be used as a tool to predict changes in runoff characteristics resulting from changes in land use. The conceptual model, a qualitative representation of the study basins, links the physical characteristics to the runoff process of the study basins. The model incorporates 11 generalizations identified by the investigation, eight of which describe runoff from hillslopes, and three that account for the effects of channel characteristics and ground-water flow patterns on runoff. Stream discharge was measured at 28 sites and precipitation was measured at six sites for 3 years in two overlapping phases during the period of October 1989 through September 1992 to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Comparison of rainfall data from October 1989 through September 1992 shows the data-collection period beginning with 2 wet water years followed by the relatively dry 1992 water year. Runoff was simulated with two basin models-the Clover Creek Basin model and the Clear-Clarks Basin model-by incorporating the generalizations of the conceptual model into the construction of two HSPF numerical models. Initially, the process-related parameters for runoff from glacial-till hillslopes were calibrated with numerical models for three catchment sites and one headwater basin where streamflows were continuously measured and little or no influence from ground water, channel storage, or channel losses affected runoff. At one of the catchments soil moisture was monitored and compared with simulated soil moisture. The values for these parameters were used in the basin models. Basin models were calibrated to the first year of observed streamflow data by adjusting other parameters in the numerical model that simulated channel losses, simulated channel storage in a few of the reaches in the headwaters and in the floodplain of the main stem of Clover Creek, and simulated volume and outflow of the ground-water reservoir representing the regional ground-water aquifers. The models were run for a second year without any adjustments, and simulated results were compared with observed results as a measure of validation of the models. The investigation showed the importance of defining the ground-water flow boundaries and demonstrated a simple method of simulating the influence of the regional ground-water aquifer on streamflows. In the Clover Creek Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries were used to define subbasins containing mostly glacial outwash soils and not containing any surface drainage channels. In the Clear-Clarks Basin model, ground-water flow boundaries outlined a recharge area outside the surface-water boundaries of the basin that was incorporated into the model in order to provide sufficient water to balance simulated ground-water outflows to the creeks. A simulated ground-water reservoir used to represent regional ground-water flow processes successfully provided the proper water balance of inflows and outfl

Flexibility on storage-release based distributed hydrologic modeling with object-oriented approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With the availability of advanced hydrologic data in the public domain such as remotely sensed and climate change scenario data, there is a need for a modeling framework that is capable of using these data to simulate and extend hydrologic processes with multidisciplinary approaches for sustainable ...

One-day offset in daily hydrologic modeling: An exploration of the issue in automatic model calibration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The literature of daily hydrologic modelling illustrates that daily simulation models are incapable of accurately representing hydrograph timing due to relationships between precipitation and watershed hydrologic response. For watersheds with a time of concentration less than 24 hrs and a late day p...

Bayesian inference of the groundwater depth threshold in a vegetation dynamic model: a case study, lower reach, Tarim River

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The responses of eco-hydrological systems to anthropogenic and natural disturbances have attracted much attention in recent years. The coupling and simulating feedback between hydrological and ecological components have been realized in several recently developed eco-hydrological models. However, li...

Designing hydrologic monitoring networks to maximize predictability of hydrologic conditions in a data assimilation system: a case study from South Florida, U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, A. N.; Pathak, C. S.; Senarath, S. U.; Bras, R. L.

2009-12-01

Robust hydrologic monitoring networks represent a critical element of decision support systems for effective water resource planning and management. Moreover, process representation within hydrologic simulation models is steadily improving, while at the same time computational costs are decreasing due to, for instance, readily available high performance computing resources. The ability to leverage these increasingly complex models together with the data from these monitoring networks to provide accurate and timely estimates of relevant hydrologic variables within a multiple-use, managed water resources system would substantially enhance the information available to resource decision makers. Numerical data assimilation techniques provide mathematical frameworks through which uncertain model predictions can be constrained to observational data to compensate for uncertainties in the model forcings and parameters. In ensemble-based data assimilation techniques such as the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), information in observed variables such as canal, marsh and groundwater stages are propagated back to the model states in a manner related to: (1) the degree of certainty in the model state estimates and observations, and (2) the cross-correlation between the model states and the observable outputs of the model. However, the ultimate degree to which hydrologic conditions can be accurately predicted in an area of interest is controlled, in part, by the configuration of the monitoring network itself. In this proof-of-concept study we developed an approach by which the design of an existing hydrologic monitoring network is adapted to iteratively improve the predictions of hydrologic conditions within an area of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The objective of the network design is to minimize prediction errors of key hydrologic states and fluxes produced by the spatially distributed Regional Simulation Model (RSM), developed specifically to simulate the hydrologic conditions in several intensively managed and hydrologically complex watersheds within the SFWMD system. In a series of synthetic experiments RSM is used to generate the notionally true hydrologic state and the relevant observational data. The EnKF is then used as the mechanism to fuse RSM hydrologic estimates with data from the candidate network. The performance of the candidate network is measured by the prediction errors of the EnKF estimates of hydrologic states, relative to the notionally true scenario. The candidate network is then adapted by relocating existing observational sites to unobserved areas where predictions of local hydrologic conditions are most uncertain and the EnKF procedure repeated. Iteration of the monitoring network continues until further improvements in EnKF-based predictions of hydrologic conditions are negligible.

Modelling hydrological conditions in the maritime forest region of south-western Nova Scotia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanni, Shelagh; Keys, Kevin; Meng, Fan-Rui; Yin, Xiwei; Clair, Tom; Arp, Paul A.

2000-02-01

Hydrological processes and conditions were quantified for the Mersey River Basin (two basins: one exiting below Mill Falls, and one exiting below George Lake), the Roger's Brook Basin, Moosepit Brook, and for other selected locations at and near Kejimkujik National Park in Nova Scotia, Canada, from 1967 to 1990. Addressed variables included precipitation (rain, snow, fog), air temperature, stream discharge, snowpack accumulations, throughfall, soil and subsoil moisture, soil temperature and soil frost, at a monthly resolution. It was found that monthly per hectare stream discharge was essentially independent of catchment area from <20 km2 to more than 1000 km2. The forest hydrology model ForHyM2 was used to simulate monthly rates of stream discharge, throughfall and snowpack water equivalents for mature forest conditions. These simulations were in good agreement with the historical records once the contributions of fog and mist to the area-wide water budget were taken into account, each on a monthly basis. The resulting simulations establish a hydrologically consistent, continuous, comprehensive and partially verified record for basin-wide outcomes for all major hydrological processes and conditions, be these related to stream discharge, soil moisture, soil temperature, snowpack accumulations, soil frost, throughfall, interception and soil percolation.

JAMS - a software platform for modular hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kralisch, Sven; Fischer, Christian

2015-04-01

Current challenges of understanding and assessing the impacts of climate and land use changes on environmental systems demand for an ever-increasing integration of data and process knowledge in corresponding simulation models. Software frameworks that allow for a seamless creation of integrated models based on less complex components (domain models, process simulation routines) have therefore gained increasing attention during the last decade. JAMS is an Open-Source software framework that has been especially designed to cope with the challenges of eco-hydrological modelling. This is reflected by (i) its flexible approach for representing time and space, (ii) a strong separation of process simulation components from the declarative description of more complex models using domain specific XML, (iii) powerful analysis and visualization functions for spatial and temporal input and output data, and (iv) parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis functions commonly used in environmental modelling. Based on JAMS, different hydrological and nutrient-transport simulation models were implemented and successfully applied during the last years. We will present the JAMS core concepts and give an overview of models, simulation components and support tools available for that framework. Sample applications will be used to underline the advantages of component-based model designs and to show how JAMS can be used to address the challenges of integrated hydrological modelling.

Hydrological simulation and uncertainty analysis using the improved TOPMODEL in the arid Manas River basin, China.

PubMed

Xue, Lianqing; Yang, Fan; Yang, Changbing; Wei, Guanghui; Li, Wenqian; He, Xinlin

2018-01-11

Understanding the mechanism of complicated hydrological processes is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This paper carried out the simulations of water movement for the Manas River Basin (MRB) using the improved semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) with a snowmelt model and topographic index algorithm. A new algorithm is proposed to calculate the curve of topographic index using internal tangent circle on a conical surface. Based on the traditional model, the improved indicator of temperature considered solar radiation is used to calculate the amount of snowmelt. The uncertainty of parameters for the TOPMODEL model was analyzed using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The proposed model shows that the distribution of the topographic index is concentrated in high mountains, and the accuracy of runoff simulation has certain enhancement by considering radiation. Our results revealed that the performance of the improved TOPMODEL is acceptable and comparable to runoff simulation in the MRB. The uncertainty of the simulations resulted from the parameters and structures of model, climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study is expected to serve as a valuable complement for widely application of TOPMODEL and identify the mechanism of hydrological processes in arid area.

High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

Adequacy of selected evapotranspiration approximations for hydrologic simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumner, D.M.

2006-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) approximations, usually based on computed potential ET (PET) and diverse PET-to-ET conceptualizations, are routinely used in hydrologic analyses. This study presents an approach to incorporate measured (actual) ET data, increasingly available using micrometeorological methods, to define the adequacy of ET approximations for hydrologic simulation. The approach is demonstrated at a site where eddy correlation-measured ET values were available. A baseline hydrologic model incorporating measured ET values was used to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated water levels, subsurface recharge, and surface runoff to error in four ET approximations. An annually invariant pattern of mean monthly vegetation coefficients was shown to be most effective, despite the substantial year-to-year variation in measured vegetation coefficients. The temporal variability of available water (precipitation minus ET) at the humid, subtropical site was largely controlled by the relatively high temporal variability of precipitation, benefiting the effectiveness of coarse ET approximations, a result that is likely to prevail at other humid sites.

Modelling for environmental assessment of municipal solid waste landfills (part II: biodegradation).

PubMed

Garcia de Cortázar, Amaya Lobo; Lantarón, Javier Herrero; Fernández, Oscar Montero; Monzón, Iñaki Tejero; Lamia, Maria Fantelli

2002-12-01

The biodegradation module of a simulation program for municipal solid waste landfills (MODUELO) was developed. The biodegradation module carries out the balance of organic material starting with the results of the hydrologic simulation and the waste composition. It simulates the biologic reactions of hydrolysis of solids and the gasification of the dissolved biodegradable material. The results of this module are: organic matter (COD, BOD and elemental components such as carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, sulfur and ash), ammonium nitrogen generated with the gas and transported by the leachates and the potential rates of methane and carbon dioxide generation. The model was calibrated by using the general tendency curves of the pollutants recorded in municipal solid waste landfills, fitting the first part of them to available landfill data. Although the results show some agreement, further work is being done to make MODUELO a useful tool for real landfill simulation.

Design and Implementation of Hydrologic Process Knowledge-base Ontology: A case study for the Infiltration Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elag, M.; Goodall, J. L.

2013-12-01

Hydrologic modeling often requires the re-use and integration of models from different disciplines to simulate complex environmental systems. Component-based modeling introduces a flexible approach for integrating physical-based processes across disciplinary boundaries. Several hydrologic-related modeling communities have adopted the component-based approach for simulating complex physical systems by integrating model components across disciplinary boundaries in a workflow. However, it is not always straightforward to create these interdisciplinary models due to the lack of sufficient knowledge about a hydrologic process. This shortcoming is a result of using informal methods for organizing and sharing information about a hydrologic process. A knowledge-based ontology provides such standards and is considered the ideal approach for overcoming this challenge. The aims of this research are to present the methodology used in analyzing the basic hydrologic domain in order to identify hydrologic processes, the ontology itself, and how the proposed ontology is integrated with the Water Resources Component (WRC) ontology. The proposed ontology standardizes the definitions of a hydrologic process, the relationships between hydrologic processes, and their associated scientific equations. The objective of the proposed Hydrologic Process (HP) Ontology is to advance the idea of creating a unified knowledge framework for components' metadata by introducing a domain-level ontology for hydrologic processes. The HP ontology is a step toward an explicit and robust domain knowledge framework that can be evolved through the contribution of domain users. Analysis of the hydrologic domain is accomplished using the Formal Concept Approach (FCA), in which the infiltration process, an important hydrologic process, is examined. Two infiltration methods, the Green-Ampt and Philip's methods, were used to demonstrate the implementation of information in the HP ontology. Furthermore, a SPARQL service is provided for semantic-based querying of the ontology.

Documentation of a restart option for the U.S. Geological Survey coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regan, R. Steve; Niswonger, Richard G.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Barlow, Paul M.

2015-10-02

The spin-up simulation should be run for a sufficient length of time necessary to establish antecedent conditions throughout a model domain. Each GSFLOW application can require different lengths of time to account for the hydrologic stresses to propagate through a coupled groundwater and surface-water system. Typically, groundwater hydrologic processes require many years to come into equilibrium with dynamic climate and other forcing (or stress) data, such as precipitation and well pumping, whereas runoff-dominated surface-water processes respond relatively quickly. Use of a spin-up simulation can substantially reduce execution-time requirements for applications where the time period of interest is small compared to the time for hydrologic memory; thus, use of the restart option can be an efficient strategy for forecast and calibration simulations that require multiple simulations starting from the same day.

Analysis on flood generation processes by means of a continuous simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorentino, M.; Gioia, A.; Iacobellis, V.; Manfreda, S.

2006-03-01

In the present research, we exploited a continuous hydrological simulation to investigate on key variables responsible of flood peak formation. With this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) is used in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP-Iterated Random Pulse) to simulate a large number of extreme events providing insight into the main controls of flood generation mechanisms. Investigated variables are those used in theoretically derived probability distribution of floods based on the concept of partial contributing area (e.g. Iacobellis and Fiorentino, 2000). The continuous simulation model is used to investigate on the hydrological losses occurring during extreme events, the variability of the source area contributing to the flood peak and its lag-time. Results suggest interesting simplification for the theoretical probability distribution of floods according to the different climatic and geomorfologic environments. The study is applied to two basins located in Southern Italy with different climatic characteristics.

Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, Robert E.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

2017-04-01

Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated discharges, which are updated immediately (a calibration only needs a couple of seconds or less, a simulation is almost immediate). In addition, time series of internal variables, live-visualisation of internal variables evolution and performance statistics are provided. This interface allows for hands-on exercises that can include for instance the analysis by students of: - The effects of each parameter and model components on simulated discharge - The effects of objective functions based on high flows- or low flows-focused criteria on simulated discharge - The seasonality of the model components. References Winston Chang, Joe Cheng, JJ Allaire, Yihui Xie and Jonathan McPherson (2016). shiny: Web Application Framework for R. R package version 0.13.2. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=shiny Coron L., Thirel G., Perrin C., Delaigue O., Andréassian V., airGR: a suite of lumped hydrological models in an R-package, Environmental Modelling and software, 2017, submitted. Coron, L., Perrin, C. and Michel, C. (2016). airGR: Suite of GR hydrological models for precipitation-runoff modelling. R package version 1.0.3. https://webgr.irstea.fr/airGR/?lang=en. Olivier Delaigue and Laurent Coron (2016). airGRteaching: Tools to simplify the use of the airGR hydrological package by students. R package version 0.0.1. https://webgr.irstea.fr/airGR/?lang=en R Core Team (2016). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/.

Nonlinear Prediction Model for Hydrologic Time Series Based on Wavelet Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Khalil, A.; Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Ahn, H.; Moon, Y.

2005-12-01

Traditionally forecasting and characterizations of hydrologic systems is performed utilizing many techniques. Stochastic linear methods such as AR and ARIMA and nonlinear ones such as statistical learning theory based tools have been extensively used. The common difficulty to all methods is the determination of sufficient and necessary information and predictors for a successful prediction. Relationships between hydrologic variables are often highly nonlinear and interrelated across the temporal scale. A new hybrid approach is proposed for the simulation of hydrologic time series combining both the wavelet transform and the nonlinear model. The present model employs some merits of wavelet transform and nonlinear time series model. The Wavelet Transform is adopted to decompose a hydrologic nonlinear process into a set of mono-component signals, which are simulated by nonlinear model. The hybrid methodology is formulated in a manner to improve the accuracy of a long term forecasting. The proposed hybrid model yields much better results in terms of capturing and reproducing the time-frequency properties of the system at hand. Prediction results are promising when compared to traditional univariate time series models. An application of the plausibility of the proposed methodology is provided and the results conclude that wavelet based time series model can be utilized for simulating and forecasting of hydrologic variable reasonably well. This will ultimately serve the purpose of integrated water resources planning and management.

Flash Floods Simulation Using a Physical based hydrological Model at the Eastern Nile Basin: Case studies; Wadi Assiut, Egypt and Wadi Gumara, Lake Tana, Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saber, M.; Sefelnasr, A.; Yilmaz, K. K.

2015-12-01

Flash flood is a natural hydrological phenomenon which affects many regions of the world. The behavior and effect of this phenomenon is different from one region to the other regions depending on several issues such as climatology and hydrological and topographical conditions at the target regions. Wadi assiut, Egypt as arid environment, and Gumara catchment, Lake Tana, Ethiopia, as humid conditions have been selected for application. The main target of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the difference between them on the flash flood behaviors based on the variability of both of them. In order to simulate the flash floods, remote sensing data and a physical-based distributed hydrological model, Hydro-BEAM-WaS (Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model incorporating Wadi System) have been integrated used in this work. Based on the simulation results of flash floods in these regions, it was found that the time to reach the maximum peak is very short and consequently the warning time is very short as well. It was found that the flash floods starts from zero flow in arid environment, but on the contrary in humid arid, it starts from Base flow which is changeable based on the simulated events. Distribution maps of flash floods showing the vulnerable regions of these selected areas have been developed. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study have been introduced. The proposed methodology can be applied effectively for flash flood forecasting at different climate regions, however the paucity of observational data.

A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Pokhrel, Yadu; Kanae, Shinjiro

2018-01-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water abstraction, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the water abstraction schemes of the H08 GHM. This enabled us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. In its standard setup, the model covers the whole globe at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, and the calculation interval is 1 day. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program, and all water fluxes and storage were strictly traceable at any place and time during the simulation period. A global hydrological simulation was conducted to validate the performance of the model for the period of 1979-2013 (land use was fixed for the year 2000). The simulated water fluxes for water abstraction were validated against those reported in earlier publications and showed a reasonable agreement at the global and country level. The simulated monthly river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) for six of the world's most significantly human-affected river basins were compared with gauge observations and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. It is found that the simulation including the newly added schemes outperformed the simulation without human activities. The simulated results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628±75 km3 yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839±50 km3 yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789±30 km3 yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786±23, 199±10, 106±5, and 1.8±0 km3 yr-1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747±45 km3 yr-1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607±11 and 182±26 km3 yr-1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Each source differed in its renewability, economic costs for development, and environmental consequences of usage. The model is useful for performing global water resource assessments by considering the aspects of sustainability, economy, and environment.

Simulation of the hydrologic effects of afforestation in the tacuarembo river basin, Uruguay

Treesearch

N.O. von Stackelberg; G.M. Chescheir; R.W. Skaggs; D.M. Amatya

2007-01-01

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the hydrology of two small paired catchments in northern Uruguay. The control and treatment catchments (69 and 108 ha, respectively) were monitored for a three-year pretreatment period during which the land use was grassland with livestock grazing. Subsequently, the treatment catchment was planted (57%...

Natural and anthropogenic land cover change and its impact on the regional climate and hydrological extremes over Sanjiangyuan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, P.; Yuan, X.

2017-12-01

Located in the northern Tibetan Plateau, Sanjiangyuan is the headwater region of the Yellow River, Yangtze River and Mekong River. Besides climate change, natural and human-induced land cover change (e.g., Graze for Grass Project) is also influencing the regional hydro-climate and hydrological extremes significantly. To quantify their impacts, a land surface model (LSM) with consideration of soil moisture-lateral surface flow interaction and quasi-three-dimensional subsurface flow, is used to conduct long-term high resolution simulations driven by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System forcing data and different land cover scenarios. In particular, the role of surface and subsurface lateral flows is also analyzed by comparing with typical one-dimensional models. Lateral flows help to simulate soil moisture variability caused by topography at hyper-resolution (e.g., 100m), which is also essential for simulating hydrological extremes including soil moisture dryness/wetness and high/low flows. The LSM will also be coupled with a regional climate model to simulate the effect of natural and anthropogenic land cover change on regional climate, with particular focus on the land-atmosphere coupling at different resolutions with different configurations in modeling land surface hydrology.

Upscaling from research watersheds: an essential stage of trustworthy general-purpose hydrologic model building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, J. P.; Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

2011-12-01

Highly instrumented research watersheds provide excellent opportunities for investigating hydrologic processes. A danger, however, is that the processes observed at a particular research watershed are too specific to the watershed and not representative even of the larger scale watershed that contains that particular research watershed. Thus, models developed based on those partial observations may not be suitable for general hydrologic use. Therefore demonstrating the upscaling of hydrologic process from research watersheds to larger watersheds is essential to validate concepts and test model structure. The Hydrograph model has been developed as a general-purpose process-based hydrologic distributed system. In its applications and further development we evaluate the scaling of model concepts and parameters in a wide range of hydrologic landscapes. All models, either lumped or distributed, are based on a discretization concept. It is common practice that watersheds are discretized into so called hydrologic units or hydrologic landscapes possessing assumed homogeneous hydrologic functioning. If a model structure is fixed, the difference in hydrologic functioning (difference in hydrologic landscapes) should be reflected by a specific set of model parameters. Research watersheds provide the possibility for reasonable detailed combining of processes into some typical hydrologic concept such as hydrologic units, hydrologic forms, and runoff formation complexes in the Hydrograph model. And here by upscaling we imply not the upscaling of a single process but upscaling of such unified hydrologic functioning. The simulation of runoff processes for the Dry Creek research watershed, Idaho, USA (27 km2) was undertaken using the Hydrograph model. The information on the watershed was provided by Boise State University and included a GIS database of watershed characteristics and a detailed hydrometeorological observational dataset. The model provided good simulation results in terms of runoff and variable states of soil and snow over a simulation period 2000 - 2009. The parameters of the model were hand-adjusted based on rational sense, observational data and available understanding of underlying processes. For the first run some processes as riparian vegetation impact on runoff and streamflow/groundwater interaction were handled in a conceptual way. It was shown that the use of Hydrograph model which requires modest amount of parameter calibration may serve also as a quality control for observations. Based on the obtained parameters values and process understanding at the research watershed the model was applied to the larger scale watersheds located in similar environment - the Boise River at South Fork (1660 km2) and Twin Springs (2155 km2). The evaluation of the results of such upscaling will be presented.

HydroViz: evaluation of a web-based tool for improving hydrology education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib, E.; Ma, Y.; Williams, D.; Sharif, H.; Hossain, F.

2012-02-01

HydroViz is a web-based, student-centered, highly visual educational tool designed to support active learning in the field of Engineering Hydrology. The development of HydroViz is informed by recent advances in hydrologic data, numerical simulations, visualization and web-based technologies. An evaluation study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of HydroViz, to examine the buy-in of the program, and to identify project components that need to be improved. A total of 182 students from seven freshmen and junior-/senior-level undergraduate classes in three universities participated in the study over the course of two semesters (spring 2010 and fall 2010). Data sources included homework assignments, online surveys, and informal interviews with students. Descriptive statistics were calculated for homework and the survey. Qualitative analysis of students' comments and informal interview notes were also conducted to identify ideas and patterns. HydroViz was effective in facilitating students' learning and understanding of hydrologic concepts and increasing related skills. Students had positive perceptions of various features of HydroViz and they believe that HydroViz fits well in the curriculum. The experience with HydroViz was somewhat effective in raising freshmen civil engineering students' interest in hydrology. In general, HydroViz tend to be more effective with students in junior- or senior-level classes than students in freshmen classes. There does not seem to be obvious differences between different universities. Students identified some issues that can be addressed to improve HydroViz. Future adaptation and expansion studies are under planning to scale-up the application and utility of HydroViz into various hydrology and water-resource engineering curriculum settings.

CI-WATER HPC Model: Cyberinfrastructure to Advance High Performance Water Resources Modeling in the Intermountain Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogden, F. L.; Lai, W.; Douglas, C. C.; Miller, S. N.; Zhang, Y.

2012-12-01

The CI-WATER project is a cooperative effort between the Utah and Wyoming EPSCoR jurisdictions, and is funded through a cooperative agreement with the U.S. National Science Foundation EPSCoR. The CI-WATER project is acquiring hardware and developing software cyberinfrastructure (CI) to enhance accessibility of High Performance Computing for water resources modeling in the Western U.S. One of the components of the project is development of a large-scale, high-resolution, physically-based, data-driven, integrated computational water resources model, which we call the CI-WATER HPC model. The objective of this model development is to enable evaluation of integrated system behavior to guide and support water system planning and management by individual users, cities, or states. The model is first being tested in the Green River basin of Wyoming, which is the largest tributary to the Colorado River. The model will ultimately be applied to simulate the entire Upper Colorado River basin for hydrological studies, watershed management, economic analysis, as well as evaluation of potential changes in environmental policy and law, population, land use, and climate. In addition to hydrologically important processes simulated in many hydrological models, the CI-WATER HPC model will emphasize anthropogenic influences such as land use change, water resources infrastructure, irrigation practices, trans-basin diversions, and urban/suburban development. The model operates on an unstructured mesh, employing adaptive mesh at grid sizes as small as 10 m as needed- particularly in high elevation snow melt regions. Data for the model are derived from remote sensing sources, atmospheric models and geophysical techniques. Monte-Carlo techniques and ensemble Kalman filtering methodologies are employed for data assimilation. The model includes application programming interface (API) standards to allow easy substitution of alternative process-level simulation routines, and provide post-processing, visualization, and communication of massive amounts of output. The open-source CI-WATER model represents a significant advance in water resources modeling, and will be useful to water managers, planners, resource economists, and the hydrologic research community in general.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in climate and land cover are principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevad...

Soil water repellency and ground cover effects on infiltration in response to prescribed burning of steeply-sloped sagebrush hillslopes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland managers and scientists are in need of predictive tools to accurately simulate post-fire hydrologic responses and provide hydrologic risk assessment. Rangeland hydrologic modeling has advanced in recent years; however, model advancements have largely been associated with data from gently ...

Stochastic Watershed Models for Risk Based Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, R. M.

2017-12-01

Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed `stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation

Sensitivity analysis of a ground-water-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torak, Lynn J.; ,

1991-01-01

A sensitivity analysis was performed on 18 hydrological factors affecting steady-state groundwater flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer near Albany, southwestern Georgia. Computations were based on a calibrated, two-dimensional, finite-element digital model of the stream-aquifer system and the corresponding data inputs. Flow-system sensitivity was analyzed by computing water-level residuals obtained from simulations involving individual changes to each hydrological factor. Hydrological factors to which computed water levels were most sensitive were those that produced the largest change in the sum-of-squares of residuals for the smallest change in factor value. Plots of the sum-of-squares of residuals against multiplier or additive values that effect change in the hydrological factors are used to evaluate the influence of each factor on the simulated flow system. The shapes of these 'sensitivity curves' indicate the importance of each hydrological factor to the flow system. Because the sensitivity analysis can be performed during the preliminary phase of a water-resource investigation, it can be used to identify the types of hydrological data required to accurately characterize the flow system prior to collecting additional data or making management decisions.

Intensification of hydrological drought due to human activity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Dan; Zhang, Qi; Qiu, Jiaming; Bai, Peng; Liang, Kang; Li, Xianghu

2018-10-01

Hydrological extremes are changing under the impacts of environmental change, i.e., climate variation and human activity, which can substantially influence ecosystems and the living environment of humans in affected region. This study investigates the impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China based on hydrological modelling. Change points for streamflow into two major lakes and a reservoir in the study area were detected in the late 1980s using the Mann-Kendall test. Streamflow simulation by a water balance model was performed, and the resulting Kling-Gupta efficiency value was >0.90. Hydrological drought events were identified based on the simulated streamflow under different scenarios. The results show that the hydrological drought occurrence was increased by precipitation, whereas the drought peak value was increased by potential evapotranspiration. The impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on drought severity and duration varied in the study area. However, hydrological drought was intensified by the influence of human activity, which increased the severity, duration and peak value of droughts. The dominant factor for hydrological drought severity is precipitation, followed by potential evapotranspiration and human activity. The impacts of climate variation and human activity on drought severity are larger than on drought duration. In addition, environmental change is shown to have an "accumulation effect" on hydrological drought, demonstrating that the indirect impacts of environmental change on hydrological drought are much larger than the direct impacts on streamflow. This study improves our understanding of the responses of hydrological extremes to environmental change, which is useful for the management of water resources and the prediction of hydrological disasters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2015-05-01

The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of predictand, possesses a Bayesian coherence property, constitutes a random sample of the predictand, and has an acceptable sampling error-which makes it suitable for rational decision making under uncertainty.

Validation of a national hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

2016-10-01

Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Transport In a Lowland Watershed System: Controlling Processes and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

al Aamery, N. M. H.; Mahoney, D. T.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

Future climate change projections suggest extreme impacts on watershed hydrologic systems for some regions of the world including pronounced increases in surface runoff and instream flows. Yet, there remains a lack of research focused on how future changes in hydrologic extremes, as well as relative hydrologic mean changes, impact sediment redistribution within a watershed and sediment flux from a watershed. The authors hypothesized that variations in mean and extreme changes in turn may impact sediments in depositional and erosional dominance in a manner that may not be obvious to the watershed manager. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the inner processes connecting the combined effect of extreme climate change projections on the vegetation, upland erosion, and instream processes to produce changes in sediment redistribution within watersheds. To do so, research methods were carried out by the authors including simulating sediment processes in forecast and hindcast periods for a lowland watershed system. Publically available climate realizations from several climate factors and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to predict hydrologic conditions for the South Elkhorn Watershed in central Kentucky, USA to 2050. The results of the simulated extreme and mean hydrological components were used in simulating upland erosion with the connectivity processes consideration and thereafter used in building and simulating the instream erosion and deposition of sediment processes with the consideration of surface fine grain lamina (SFGL) layer controlling the benthic ecosystem. Results are used to suggest the dominance of erosional and depositional redistribution of sediments under different scenarios associated with extreme and mean hydrologic forecasting. The results are discussed in reference to the benthic ecology of the stream system providing insight on how water managers might consider sediment redistribution in a changing climate.

Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

PubMed

Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

2016-02-01

According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important in ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking hydrological model predictive capability for UK River flows and flood peaks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, Rosanna; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Data and hydrological models are now available for national hydrological analyses. However, hydrological model performance varies between catchments, and lumped, conceptual models are not able to produce adequate simulations everywhere. This study aims to benchmark hydrological model performance for catchments across the United Kingdom within an uncertainty analysis framework. We have applied four hydrological models from the FUSE framework to 1128 catchments across the UK. These models are all lumped models and run at a daily timestep, but differ in the model structural architecture and process parameterisations, therefore producing different but equally plausible simulations. We apply FUSE over a 20 year period from 1988-2008, within a GLUE Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses framework. Model performance was evaluated for each catchment, model structure and parameter set using standard performance metrics. These were calculated both for the whole time series and to assess seasonal differences in model performance. The GLUE uncertainty analysis framework was then applied to produce simulated 5th and 95th percentile uncertainty bounds for the daily flow time-series and additionally the annual maximum prediction bounds for each catchment. The results show that the model performance varies significantly in space and time depending on catchment characteristics including climate, geology and human impact. We identify regions where models are systematically failing to produce good results, and present reasons why this could be the case. We also identify regions or catchment characteristics where one model performs better than others, and have explored what structural component or parameterisation enables certain models to produce better simulations in these catchments. Model predictive capability was assessed for each catchment, through looking at the ability of the models to produce discharge prediction bounds which successfully bound the observed discharge. These results improve our understanding of the predictive capability of simple conceptual hydrological models across the UK and help us to identify where further effort is needed to develop modelling approaches to better represent different catchment and climate typologies.

Integrated Modeling System for Analysis of Watershed Water Balance: A Case Study in the Tims Branch Watershed, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setegn, S. G.; Mahmoudi, M.; Lawrence, A.; Duque, N.

2015-12-01

The Applied Research Center at Florida International University (ARC-FIU) is supporting the soil and groundwater remediation efforts of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) by developing a surface water model to simulate the hydrology and the fate and transport of contaminants and sediment in the Tims Branch watershed. Hydrological models are useful tool in water and land resource development and decision-making for watershed management. Moreover, simulation of hydrological processes improves understanding of the environmental dynamics and helps to manage and protect water resources and the environment. MIKE SHE, an advanced integrated modeling system is used to simulate the hydrological processes of the Tim Branch watershed with the objective of developing an integrated modeling system to improve understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes within the Tims Branch watershed. MIKE SHE simulates water flow in the entire land based phase of the hydrological cycle from rainfall to river flow, via various flow processes such as, overland flow, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater flow. In this study a MIKE SHE model is developed and applied to the Tim branch watershed to study the watershed response to storm events and understand the water balance of the watershed under different climatic and catchment characteristics. The preliminary result of the integrated model indicated that variation in the depth of overland flow highly depend on the amount and distribution of rainfall in the watershed. The ultimate goal of this project is to couple the MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 models to integrate the hydrological component in the land phase of hydrological cycle and stream flow process. The coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model will further be integrated with an Ecolab module to represent a range of water quality, contaminant transport, and ecological processes with respect to the stream, surface water and groundwater in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site.

Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

DOE PAGES

Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; ...

2015-11-12

Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore » the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. Furthermore, the new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.« less

Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

DOE PAGES

Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; ...

2015-02-20

Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore » the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.« less

Modelling surface water-groundwater interaction with a conceptual approach: model development and application in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zammit, C.; McMillan, H. K.

2016-12-01

As in most countries worldwide, water management in lowland areas is a big concern for New Zealand due to its economic importance for water related human activities. As a result, the estimation of available water resources in these areas (e.g., for irrigation and water supply purpose) is crucial and often requires an understanding of complex hydrological processes, which are often characterized by strong interactions between surface water and groundwater (usually expressed as losing and gaining rivers). These processes are often represented and simulated using integrated physically based hydrological models. However models with physically based groundwater modules typically require large amount of non-readily available geologic and aquifer information and are computationally intensive. Instead, this paper presents a conceptual groundwater model that is fully integrated into New Zealand's national hydrological model TopNet based on TopModel concepts (Beven, 1992). Within this conceptual framework, the integrated model can simulate not only surface processes, but also groundwater processes and surface water-groundwater interaction processes (including groundwater flow, river-groundwater interaction, and groundwater interaction with external watersheds). The developed model was applied to two New Zealand catchments with different hydro-geological and climate characteristics (Pareora catchment in the Canterbury Plains and Grey catchment on the West Coast). Previous studies have documented strong interactions between the river and groundwater, based on the analysis of a large number of concurrent flow measurements and associated information along the river main stem. Application of the integrated hydrological model indicates flow simulation (compared to the original hydrological model conceptualisation) during low flow conditions are significantly improved and further insights on local river dynamics are gained. Due to its conceptual characteristics and low level of data requirement, the integrated model could be used at local and national scales to improve the simulation of hydrological processes in non-topographically driven areas (where groundwater processes are important), and to assess impact of climate change on the integrated hydrological cycle in these areas.

Evaluation of rainfall structure on hydrograph simulation: Comparison of radar and interpolated methods, a study case in a tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

2017-12-01

The skill of river discharge simulation using hydrological models strongly depends on the quality and spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation during storm events. All precipitation measurement strategies have their own strengths and weaknesses that translate into discharge simulation uncertainties. Distributed hydrological models are based on evolving rainfall fields in the same time scale as the hydrological simulation. In general, rainfall measurements from a dense and well maintained rain gauge network provide a very good estimation of the total volume for each rainfall event, however, the spatial structure relies on interpolation strategies introducing considerable uncertainty in the simulation process. On the other hand, rainfall retrievals from radar reflectivity achieve a better spatial structure representation but with higher uncertainty in the surface precipitation intensity and volume depending on the vertical rainfall characteristics and radar scan strategy. To assess the impact of both rainfall measurement methodologies on hydrological simulations, and in particular the effects of the rainfall spatio-temporal variability, a numerical modeling experiment is proposed including the use of a novel QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) method based on disdrometer data in order to estimate surface rainfall from radar reflectivity. The experiment is based on the simulation of 84 storms, the hydrological simulations are carried out using radar QPE and two different interpolation methods (IDW and TIN), and the assessment of simulated peak flow. Results show significant rainfall differences between radar QPE and the interpolated fields, evidencing a poor representation of storms in the interpolated fields, which tend to miss the precise location of the intense precipitation cores, and to artificially generate rainfall in some areas of the catchment. Regarding streamflow modelling, the potential improvement achieved by using radar QPE depends on the density of the rain gauge network and its distribution relative to the precipitation events. The results for the 84 storms show a better model skill using radar QPE than the interpolated fields. Results using interpolated fields are highly affected by the dominant rainfall type and the basin scale.

Hydrology and digital simulation of the regional aquifer system, eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garabedian, S.P.

1992-01-01

The transient model was used to simulate aquifer changes from 1981 to 2010 in response to three hypothetical development alternatives: (1) Continuation of 1980 hydrologic conditions, (2) increased pumpage, and (3) increased recharge. Simulation of continued 1980 hydrologic conditions for 30 years indicated that head declines of 2 to 8 feet might be expected in the central part of the plain. The magnitude of simulated head declines was con- sistent with head declines measured during the 1980 water year. Larger declines were calculated along model boundaries, but these changes may have resulted from underestimation of tribu- tary drainage-basin underflow and inadequate aquifer definition. Simulation of increased ground-water pumpage (an additional 2,400 cubic feet per second) for 30 years indicated head declines of 10 to 50 feet in the central part of the plain. These relatively large head declines were accompanied by increased simulated river leakage of 50 percent and decreased spring discharge of 20 percent. The effect of increased recharge (800 cubic feet per sec- ond) for 30 years was a rise in simulated heads of 0 to 5 feet in the central part of the plain.

Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

2017-12-01

Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial-temporal analysis of the modeling results by HEIFLOW greatly facilitates our understanding on the complicated hydrologic cycle and relationship among the hydrological and ecological variables in the study area, and provides insights into the regional water resources management.

HydroViz: design and evaluation of a Web-based tool for improving hydrology education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib, E.; Ma, Y.; Williams, D.; Sharif, H. O.; Hossain, F.

2012-10-01

HydroViz is a Web-based, student-centered, educational tool designed to support active learning in the field of Engineering Hydrology. The design of HydroViz is guided by a learning model that is based on learning with data and simulations, using real-world natural hydrologic systems to convey theoretical concepts, and using Web-based technologies for dissemination of the hydrologic education developments. This model, while being used in a hydrologic education context, can be adapted in other engineering educational settings. HydroViz leverages the free Google Earth resources to enable presentation of geospatial data layers and embed them in web pages that have the same look and feel of Google Earth. These design features significantly facilitate the dissemination and adoption of HydroViz by any interested educational institutions regardless of their access to data or computer models. To facilitate classroom usage, HydroViz is populated with a set of course modules that can be used incrementally within different stages of an engineering hydrology curriculum. A pilot evaluation study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of the HydroViz tool in delivering its educational content, to examine the buy-in of the program by faculty and students, and to identify specific project components that need to be further pursued and improved. A total of 182 students from seven freshmen and senior-level undergraduate classes in three universities participated in the study. HydroViz was effective in facilitating students' learning and understanding of hydrologic concepts and increasing related skills. Students had positive perceptions of various features of HydroViz and they believe that HydroViz fits well in the curriculum. In general, HydroViz tend to be more effective with students in senior-level classes than students in freshmen classes. Lessons gained from this pilot study provide guidance for future adaptation and expansion studies to scale-up the application and utility of HydroViz and other similar systems into various hydrology and water-resource engineering curriculum settings. The paper presents a set of design principles that contribute to the development of other active hydrology educational systems.

International cooperation in water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, J.R.; Beall, R.M.; Giusti, E.V.

1979-01-01

Advancements in hydrology proceeded slowly until the late 1800's when new ventures created a surge of interest and accomplishment. Progress waned again until the middle 20th century when an International Hydrological Decade was conceived, eventually receiving wide multinational support from governmental agencies and nongovernmental institutions. Organized by UNESCO, the Decade program was launched January 1, 1965. Participation included 107 nations, six United Nations agencies, and more than a dozen international scientific organizations. The initial program emphasized scientific research, and international cooperation; the second half of the Decade, emphasized technical assistance and technology transfer, largerly through education, training and demonstration. The success of the Decade led to the establishment of the International Hydrological Program, again under the aegis of UNESCO, to continue the work of the Decade indefinitely. The five major program activities, now involving about 90 countries and several international organizations, include: the scientific program, the promotion of education and training, the enhancement of information exchange, support of technical assistance, and the enlargement of regional cooperation. A significant amount of activity related to hydrological data networks and forecasting is carried on in an Operational Hydrology Programme by the WMO, chiefly through its Commission for Hydrology. Other international governmental organizations with a strong interest in water include the UN, the UN Development Programme, the FAO, the WHO, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Environment Programme, the International Standardization Organization, and developmental institutions such as the World Bank. The specialized interests of researchers outside of the governmental structure, are met through association in various scientific and technical organizations which are world wide in scope and membership. Notwithstanding a sometimes bewildering variety of organizations, there certainly exists, for any nation, group, or individual, a demonstrated mechanism for almost any conceivable form of international cooperation in hydrology and water resources. ?? 1979 Akademische Verlagsgesellschaft.

Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau

DOE PAGES

Liu, Xiaomang; Yang, Tiantian; Hsu, Koulin; ...

2017-01-10

On the Tibetan Plateau, the limited ground-based rainfall information owing to a harsh environment has brought great challenges to hydrological studies. Satellite-based rainfall products, which allow for a better coverage than both radar network and rain gauges on the Tibetan Plateau, can be suitable alternatives for studies on investigating the hydrological processes and climate change. In this study, a newly developed daily satellite-based precipitation product, termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks $-$ Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), is used as input for a hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basinsmore » on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the simulated streamflows using PERSIANN-CDR precipitation and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation are closer to observation than that using limited gauge-based precipitation interpolation in the upper Yangtze River basin. The simulated streamflow using gauge-based precipitation are higher than the streamflow observation during the wet season. In the upper Yellow River basin, gauge-based precipitation, GLDAS precipitation, and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation have similar good performance in simulating streamflow. Finally, the evaluation of streamflow simulation capability in this study partly indicates that the PERSIANN-CDR rainfall product has good potential to be a reliable dataset and an alternative information source of a limited gauge network for conducting long-term hydrological and climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau.« less

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

PubMed

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

PubMed Central

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture. PMID:27003834

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Evaluating the streamflow simulation capability of PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall products in two river basins on the Tibetan Plateau

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xiaomang; Yang, Tiantian; Hsu, Koulin

On the Tibetan Plateau, the limited ground-based rainfall information owing to a harsh environment has brought great challenges to hydrological studies. Satellite-based rainfall products, which allow for a better coverage than both radar network and rain gauges on the Tibetan Plateau, can be suitable alternatives for studies on investigating the hydrological processes and climate change. In this study, a newly developed daily satellite-based precipitation product, termed Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks $-$ Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), is used as input for a hydrologic model to simulate streamflow in the upper Yellow and Yangtze River basinsmore » on the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the simulated streamflows using PERSIANN-CDR precipitation and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) precipitation are closer to observation than that using limited gauge-based precipitation interpolation in the upper Yangtze River basin. The simulated streamflow using gauge-based precipitation are higher than the streamflow observation during the wet season. In the upper Yellow River basin, gauge-based precipitation, GLDAS precipitation, and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation have similar good performance in simulating streamflow. Finally, the evaluation of streamflow simulation capability in this study partly indicates that the PERSIANN-CDR rainfall product has good potential to be a reliable dataset and an alternative information source of a limited gauge network for conducting long-term hydrological and climate studies on the Tibetan Plateau.« less

Hydrological Validation of The Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model - First Results and Required Actions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, U.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

Dynamic global vegetation models are developed with the main purpose to describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation at the global scale. Increasing concern about climate change impacts has put the focus of recent applications on the sim- ulation of the global carbon cycle. Water is a prime driver of biogeochemical and biophysical processes, thus an appropriate representation of the water cycle is crucial for their proper simulation. However, these models usually lack thorough validation of the water balance they produce. Here we present a hydrological validation of the current version of the LPJ (Lund- Potsdam-Jena) model, a dynamic global vegetation model operating at daily time steps. Long-term simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are compared to literature values, results from three global hydrological models, and discharge observations from various macroscale river basins. It was found that the seasonal and spatial patterns of the LPJ-simulated average values correspond well both with the measurements and the results from the stand-alone hy- drological models. However, a general underestimation of runoff occurs, which may be attributable to the low input dynamics of precipitation (equal distribution within a month), to the simulated vegetation pattern (potential vegetation without anthro- pogenic influence), and to some generalizations of the hydrological components in LPJ. Future research will focus on a better representation of the temporal variability of climate forcing, improved description of hydrological processes, and on the consider- ation of anthropogenic land use.

Water table response to harvesting and simulated emerald ash borer mortality in black ash wetlands in Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Robert A. Slesak; Christian F. Lenhart; Kenneth N. Brooks; Anthony W. D' Amato; Brian J. Palik

2014-01-01

Black ash wetlands are seriously threatened because of the invasive emerald ash borer (EAB). Wetland hydrology is likely to be modified following ash mortality, but the magnitude of hydrological impact following loss via EAB and alternative mitigation harvests is not clear. Our objective was to assess the water table response to simulated EAB and harvesting to...

SWOT Oceanography and Hydrology Data Product Simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peral, Eva; Rodriguez, Ernesto; Fernandez, Daniel Esteban; Johnson, Michael P.; Blumstein, Denis

2013-01-01

The proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission would demonstrate a new measurement technique using radar interferometry to obtain wide-swath measurements of water elevation at high resolution over ocean and land, addressing the needs of both the hydrology and oceanography science communities. To accurately evaluate the performance of the proposed SWOT mission, we have developed several data product simulators at different levels of fidelity and complexity.

A framework for human-hydrologic system model development integrating hydrology and water management: application to the Cutzamala water system in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wi, S.; Freeman, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

This study presents a general approach to developing computational models of human-hydrologic systems where human modification of hydrologic surface processes are significant or dominant. A river basin system is represented by a network of human-hydrologic response units (HHRUs) identified based on locations where river regulations happen (e.g., reservoir operation and diversions). Natural and human processes in HHRUs are simulated in a holistic framework that integrates component models representing rainfall-runoff, river routing, reservoir operation, flow diversion and water use processes. We illustrate the approach in a case study of the Cutzamala water system (CWS) in Mexico, a complex inter-basin water transfer system supplying the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The human-hydrologic system model for CWS (CUTZSIM) is evaluated in terms of streamflow and reservoir storages measured across the CWS and to water supplied for MCMA. The CUTZSIM improves the representation of hydrology and river-operation interaction and, in so doing, advances evaluation of system-wide water management consequences under altered climatic and demand regimes. The integrated modeling framework enables evaluation and simulation of model errors throughout the river basin, including errors in representation of the human component processes. Heretofore, model error evaluation, predictive error intervals and the resultant improved understanding have been limited to hydrologic processes. The general framework represents an initial step towards fuller understanding and prediction of the many and varied processes that determine the hydrologic fluxes and state variables in real river basins.

Time-Variable Transit Time Distributions in the Hyporheic Zone of a Headwater Mountain Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Adam S.; Schmadel, Noah M.; Wondzell, Steven M.

2018-03-01

Exchange of water between streams and their hyporheic zones is known to be dynamic in response to hydrologic forcing, variable in space, and to exist in a framework with nested flow cells. The expected result of heterogeneous geomorphic setting, hydrologic forcing, and between-feature interaction is hyporheic transit times that are highly variable in both space and time. Transit time distributions (TTDs) are important as they reflect the potential for hyporheic processes to impact biogeochemical transformations and ecosystems. In this study we simulate time-variable transit time distributions based on dynamic vertical exchange in a headwater mountain stream with observed, heterogeneous step-pool morphology. Our simulations include hyporheic exchange over a 600 m river corridor reach driven by continuously observed, time-variable hydrologic conditions for more than 1 year. We found that spatial variability at an instance in time is typically larger than temporal variation for the reach. Furthermore, we found reach-scale TTDs were marginally variable under all but the most extreme hydrologic conditions, indicating that TTDs are highly transferable in time. Finally, we found that aggregation of annual variation in space and time into a "master TTD" reasonably represents most of the hydrologic dynamics simulated, suggesting that this aggregation approach may provide a relevant basis for scaling from features or short reaches to entire networks.

Influence of spatial discretization, underground water storage and glacier melt on a physically-based hydrological model of the Upper Durance River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafaysse, M.; Hingray, B.; Etchevers, P.; Martin, E.; Obled, C.

2011-06-01

SummaryThe SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model ( Habets et al., 2008) presents severe limitations for alpine catchments. Here we propose possible model adaptations. For the catchment discretization, Relatively Homogeneous Hydrological Units (RHHUs) are used instead of the classical 8 km square grid. They are defined from the dilineation of hydrological subbasins, elevation bands, and aspect classes. Glacierized and non-glacierized areas are also treated separately. In addition, new modules are included in the model for the simulation of glacier melt, and retention of underground water. The improvement resulting from each model modification is analysed for the Upper Durance basin. RHHUs allow the model to better account for the high spatial variability of the hydrological processes (e.g. snow cover). The timing and the intensity of the spring snowmelt floods are significantly improved owing to the representation of water retention by aquifers. Despite the relatively small area covered by glaciers, accounting for glacier melt is necessary for simulating the late summer low flows. The modified model is robust over a long simulation period and it produces a good reproduction of the intra and interannual variability of discharge, which is a necessary condition for its application in a modified climate context.

User's guide of TOUGH2-EGS-MP: A Massively Parallel Simulator with Coupled Geomechanics for Fluid and Heat Flow in Enhanced Geothermal Systems VERSION 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, Yi; Fakcharoenphol, Perapon; Wang, Shihao

2013-12-01

TOUGH2-EGS-MP is a parallel numerical simulation program coupling geomechanics with fluid and heat flow in fractured and porous media, and is applicable for simulation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). TOUGH2-EGS-MP is based on the TOUGH2-MP code, the massively parallel version of TOUGH2. In TOUGH2-EGS-MP, the fully-coupled flow-geomechanics model is developed from linear elastic theory for thermo-poro-elastic systems and is formulated in terms of mean normal stress as well as pore pressure and temperature. Reservoir rock properties such as porosity and permeability depend on rock deformation, and the relationships between these two, obtained from poro-elasticity theories and empirical correlations, are incorporatedmore » into the simulation. This report provides the user with detailed information on the TOUGH2-EGS-MP mathematical model and instructions for using it for Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) simulations. The mathematical model includes the fluid and heat flow equations, geomechanical equation, and discretization of those equations. In addition, the parallel aspects of the code, such as domain partitioning and communication between processors, are also included. Although TOUGH2-EGS-MP has the capability for simulating fluid and heat flows coupled with geomechanical effects, it is up to the user to select the specific coupling process, such as THM or only TH, in a simulation. There are several example problems illustrating applications of this program. These example problems are described in detail and their input data are presented. Their results demonstrate that this program can be used for field-scale geothermal reservoir simulation in porous and fractured media with fluid and heat flow coupled with geomechanical effects.« less

The impact of hydrologic segmentation on the Critical Zone water fluxes of headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez-Jurado, H. A.; Dominguez, M.; Guan, H.

2017-12-01

Headwater catchments are usually located on areas with complex terrain, where variability in aspect and microclimate give rise to contrasting vegetation cover and soil properties. This fine-scale variability in land surface conditions within a catchment is usually overlooked in hydrologic models, and the resulting differences in hydrologic dynamics across the slopes neglected. In this work we evaluate the impact of the differential hydrologic response, or as we define it here, "hydrologic segmentation" on the partition of water fluxes of contrasting slopes within a series of headwater catchments across a latitudinal gradient. Our aim is to investigate the effect of hydrologically segmenting the slopes of headwater catchments as a function of their unique aspect-vegetation-soils associations, on the water fluxes of the catchments and their potential consequences on the water balance at a regional scale. Using a distributed hydrologic model and data from a series of catchments with varying land cover and climatic conditions, we run a set of simulations with and without hydrologic segmentation to assess the effect of changing the architecture of the top part of the critical zone on the evaporation, transpiration, infiltration and runoff fluxes of each catchment slope. We calibrate and compare the simulation results with observations from a network of hydrologic sensors and independent field estimates of the various water fluxes. Our results suggest that hydrologic segmentation will significantly affect both the timing and partition of evapotranspiration fluxes with direct impacts on soil moisture residence times and the potential for deep infiltration and aquifer recharge.

An Integrated Decision Support System with Hydrological Processes and Socio-economic Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Disse, Markus; Yu, Ruide

2017-04-01

The debate over the effectiveness of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in practice has lasted for years. As the complexity and scope of IWRM increases, the difficulties of hydrological modeling is shifting from the model itself into the links with other cognate sciences, to understand the interactions among water, earth, ecosystem and humans. This work presents the design and development of a decision support system (DSS) that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use changes. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model WASA. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were integrated as inputs into the DSS in three types of links: regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs into DSS as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. Within DSS, three types of logics were established: equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming was realized in C++. The implementation of DSS takes place in the Tarim River Basin. With the mainstream of 1,321km and located in an arid area in northwest China, the Tarim River is China's longest inland river. The Tarim basin on the northern edge of the Taklamakan desert is an extremely arid region. In this region, agricultural water consumption and allocation management are crucial to address the conflicts among irrigation water users from upstream to downstream. Since 2011, the German Ministry of Science and Education BMBF established the Sino-German SuMaRiO project, for the sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River. Project SuMaRiO focus on realizable management strategies, considering social, economic and ecological criteria. This will have positive effects for nearly 10 million inhabitants of different ethnic groups. DSS is the main outcome of SuMaRiO. The overall goal of the DSS is to integrate all crucial research results of SuMaRiO, also including stakeholder perspectives, into a model based decision support system, which allows a Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) within regional planning. This SIA will take into account the perspectives of all relevant actors in the problem field of land and water management in the Tarim River Basin, to understand ecosystem services (ESS) and integrating them into land and water management. Under scenario assumptions, possible actions and their impacts are estimated in a semi-quantitative way with the help of sustainable indicators, which includes climate indicators, socio-economic Indicators, management Indicators, and ESS Indicators. A user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) was developed to assist the decision-makers and common users, with Chinese and English versions available at the moment.

Surface Mining and Reclamation Effects on Flood Response of Watersheds in the Central Appalachian Plateau Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferrari, J. R.; Lookingbill, T. R.; McCormick, B.; Townsend, P. A.; Eshleman, K. N.

2009-01-01

Surface mining of coal and subsequent reclamation represent the dominant land use change in the central Appalachian Plateau (CAP) region of the United States. Hydrologic impacts of surface mining have been studied at the plot scale, but effects at broader scales have not been explored adequately. Broad-scale classification of reclaimed sites is difficult because standing vegetation makes them nearly indistinguishable from alternate land uses. We used a land cover data set that accurately maps surface mines for a 187-km2 watershed within the CAP. These land cover data, as well as plot-level data from within the watershed, are used with HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran) to estimate changes in flood response as a function of increased mining. Results show that the rate at which flood magnitude increases due to increased mining is linear, with greater rates observed for less frequent return intervals. These findings indicate that mine reclamation leaves the landscape in a condition more similar to urban areas rather than does simple deforestation, and call into question the effectiveness of reclamation in terms of returning mined areas to the hydrological state that existed before mining.

An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

2018-03-01

Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

Hydrological and pesticide transfer modeling in a tropical volcanic watershed with the WATPPASS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottes, Charles; Lesueur-Jannoyer, Magalie; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Carles, Céline; Guéné, Mathilde; Le Bail, Marianne; Malézieux, Eric

2015-10-01

Simulation of flows and pollutant transfers in heterogeneous media is widely recognized to be a remaining frontier in hydrology research. We present a new modeling approach to simulate agricultural pollutions in watersheds: WATPPASS, a model for Watershed Agricultural Techniques and Pesticide Practices ASSessment. It is designed to assess mean pesticide concentrations and loads that result from the use of pesticides in horticultural watersheds located on heterogeneous subsoil. WATPPASS is suited for small watershed with significant groundwater flows and complex aquifer systems. The model segments the watershed into fields with independent hydrological and pesticide transfers at the ground surface. Infiltrated water and pesticides are routed toward outlet using a conceptual reservoir model. We applied WATPPASS on a heterogeneous tropical volcanic watershed of Martinique in the French West Indies. We carried out and hydrological analysis that defined modeling constraints: (i) a spatial variability of runoff/infiltration partitioning according to land use, and (ii) a predominance of groundwater flow paths in two overlapping aquifers under permeable soils (50-60% of annual flows). We carried out simulations on a 550 days period at a daily time step for hydrology (Nashsqrt > 0.75). Weekly concentrations and loads of a persistent organic pesticide (chlordecone) were simulated for 67 weeks to evaluate the modeling approach. Pesticide simulations without specific calibration detected the mean long-term measured concentration, leading to a good quantification of the cumulative loads (5% error), but failed to represent the concentration peaks at the correct timing. Nevertheless, we succeed in adjusting the model structure to better represent the temporal dynamic of pesticide concentrations. This modification requires a proper evaluation on an independent dataset. Finally, WATPPASS is a compromise between complexity and easiness of use that makes it suited for cropping system assessment in complex pedological and geological environment.

Identification of the dominant hydrological process and appropriate model structure of a karst catchment through stepwise simplification of a complex conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yong; Wu, Jichun; Jiang, Guanghui; Kang, Zhiqiang

2017-05-01

Conceptual models often suffer from the over-parameterization problem due to limited available data for the calibration. This leads to the problem of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may bring much uncertainty of the simulation result. How to find out the appropriate model structure supported by the available data to simulate the catchment is still a big challenge in the hydrological research. In this paper, we adopt a multi-model framework to identify the dominant hydrological process and appropriate model structure of a karst spring, located in Guilin city, China. For this catchment, the spring discharge is the only available data for the model calibration. This framework starts with a relative complex conceptual model according to the perception of the catchment and then this complex is simplified into several different models by gradually removing the model component. The multi-objective approach is used to compare the performance of these different models and the regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) is used to investigate the parameter identifiability. The results show this karst spring is mainly controlled by two different hydrological processes and one of the processes is threshold-driven which is consistent with the fieldwork investigation. However, the appropriate model structure to simulate the discharge of this spring is much simpler than the actual aquifer structure and hydrological processes understanding from the fieldwork investigation. A simple linear reservoir with two different outlets is enough to simulate this spring discharge. The detail runoff process in the catchment is not needed in the conceptual model to simulate the spring discharge. More complex model should need more other additional data to avoid serious deterioration of model predictions.

Developing a Hydrologic Assessment Tool for Designing Bioretention in a watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Sangsoo; Ligaray, Mayzonee; Park, Jeong-Pyo; Kwon, Yongsung; Cho, Kyung Hwa

2017-04-01

Continuous urbanization has negatively impacted the ecological and hydrological environments at the global, regional, and local scales. This issue was addressed by developing Low Impact Development (LID) practices to deliver better hydrologic function and improve the environmental, economic, social and cultural outcomes. This study developed a modeling software to simulate and optimize bioretentions among LID in a given watershed. The model calculated a detailed soil infiltration process in bioretention with hydrological conditions and hydraulic facilities (e.g. riser and underdrain) and also generated an optimized plan using Flow Duration Curve (FDC). The optimization result from the simulation demonstrated that the location and size of bioretention, as well as the soil texture, are important elements for an efficient bioretention. We hope that the developed software in this study could be useful for establishing an appropriate scheme of LID installment

An ecohydrologic model for a shallow groundwater urban environment.

PubMed

Arden, Sam; Ma, Xin Cissy; Brown, Mark

2014-01-01

The urban environment is a patchwork of natural and artificial surfaces that results in complex interactions with and impacts to natural hydrologic cycles. Evapotranspiration is a major hydrologic flow that is often altered through urbanization, although the mechanisms of change are sometimes difficult to tease out due to difficulty in effectively simulating soil-plant-atmosphere interactions. This paper introduces a simplified yet realistic model that is a combination of existing surface runoff and ecohydrology models designed to increase the quantitative understanding of complex urban hydrologic processes. Results demonstrate that the model is capable of simulating the long-term variability of major hydrologic fluxes as a function of impervious surface, temperature, water table elevation, canopy interception, soil characteristics, precipitation and complex mechanisms of plant water uptake. These understandings have potential implications for holistic urban water system management.

Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake as a function of changing land use and land cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badar, Bazigha; Romshoo, Shakil A.; Khan, M. A.

2013-04-01

In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changing land use/land cover (LULC) on the hydrological processes in Dal lake catchment of Kashmir Himalayas by integrating remote sensing, simulation modelling and extensive field observations. Over the years, various anthropogenic pressures in the lake catchment have significantly altered the land system, impairing, inter-alia, sustained biotic communities and water quality of the lake. The primary objective of this paper was to help a better understanding of the LULC change, its driving forces and the overall impact on the hydrological response patterns. Multi-sensor and multi-temporal satellite data for 1992 and 2005 was used for determining the spatio-temporal dynamics of the lake catchment. Geographic Information System (GIS) based simulation model namely Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) was used to model the hydrological processes under the LULC conditions. We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in the study area and increase in impervious and bare surface cover due to anthropogenic interventions are the primary reasons for the increased runoff, erosion and sediment discharges in the Dal lake catchment. This study concludes that LULC change in the catchment is a major concern that has disrupted the ecological stability and functioning of the Dal lake ecosystem.

An integrated approach to conjunctive-use analysis with the one-water hydrologic flow model, MODFLOW-OWHM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyce, Scott E.; Hanson, Randall T.

2015-01-01

The MODFLOW-2005 (MF) family of hydrologic simulators has diverged into multiple versions designed for specific needs, thus limiting their use to their respective designs. The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM v1.0) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that is an enhanced fusion of multiple MF versions. While maintaining compatibility with existing MF versions, MF-OWHM includes: linkages for coupled heads, flows, and deformation; facilitation of self-updating models, additional observation and parameter options for higher-order calibrations; and redesigned code for faster simulations. This first release of MF-OWHM incorporates MODFLOW-2005 and the Farm Process (MF-FMP2), with new features (FMP3), combined with Local Grid Refinement (MF-LGR), Streamflow Routing (SFR), Surfacewater Routing Process (SWR), Seawater Intrusion (SWI), Riparian Evapotranspiration (RIP-ET), the Newton Formulation (MF-NWT), and more. MF-OWHM represents a complete integrated hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by agriculture and natural vegetation on the landscape, and for potable and other uses. By retaining and keeping track of the water during simulation of the hydrosphere, MF-OWHM accounts for “all of the water everywhere and all of the time.” This provides the foundation needed to address integrated hydrologic problems such as evaluation of conjunctive-use alternatives and sustainability analysis, including potential adaptation and mitigation strategies, and best management practices.

Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio

2010-05-01

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared.

Different modelling approaches to evaluate nitrogen transport and turnover at the watershed scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epelde, Ane Miren; Antiguedad, Iñaki; Brito, David; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Garneau, Cyril; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, José Miguel

2016-08-01

This study presents the simulation of hydrological processes and nutrient transport and turnover processes using two integrated numerical models: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (Arnold et al., 1998), an empirical and semi-distributed numerical model; and Modelo Hidrodinâmico (MOHID) (Neves, 1985), a physics-based and fully distributed numerical model. This work shows that both models reproduce satisfactorily water and nitrate exportation at the watershed scale at annual and daily basis, MOHID providing slightly better results. At the watershed scale, both SWAT and MOHID simulated similarly and satisfactorily the denitrification amount. However, as MOHID numerical model was the only one able to reproduce adequately the spatial variation of the soil hydrological conditions and water table level fluctuation, it proved to be the only model able of reproducing the spatial variation of the nutrient cycling processes that are dependent to the soil hydrological conditions such as the denitrification process. This evidences the strength of the fully distributed and physics-based models to simulate the spatial variability of nutrient cycling processes that are dependent to the hydrological conditions of the soils.

River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

2001-01-01

The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake/ reservoir and river operations including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. In addition to the operations and streamflow-routing modules, the modeling system is structured to allow integration of other modules, such as water-quality and precipitation-runoff modules. The USGS Truckee River Basin operations model was designed to provide simulations that allow comparison of the effects of alternative management practices or allocations on streamflow or reservoir storages in the Truckee River Basin over long periods of time. Because the model was not intended to reproduce historical streamflow or reservoir storage values, a traditional calibration that includes statistical comparisons of observed and simulated values would be problematic with this model and database. This report describes a chronology and background of decrees, agreements, and laws that affect Truckee River operational practices; the construction of the Truckee River daily operations model; the simulation of Truckee River Basin operations, both current and proposed under the draft TROA and WQSA; and suggested model improvements and limitations. The daily operations model uses Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate flow-routing and reservoir and river operations. The operations model simulates reservoir and river operations that govern streamflow in the Truckee River from Lake Tahoe to Pyramid Lake, including diversions through the Truckee Canal to Lahontan Reservoir in the Carson River Basin. A general overview is provided of daily operations and their simulation. Supplemental information that documents the extremely complex operating rules simulated by the model is available.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

2017-08-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria G.; Rendon, Samuel H.; Banta, John

2017-01-01

Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management the most. Additionally, the reduced-parameterization model grossly underestimates uncertainty in the total volumetric ET difference compared to the full-parameterization model; total volumetric ET difference is a primary metric for evaluating the outcomes of brush management. The failure of the reduced-parameterization model to provide robust uncertainty estimates demonstrates the importance of parameterization when attempting to quantify uncertainty in land-cover change simulations.

Tracer-Test Planning Using the Efficient Hydrologic Tracer-Test Design (Ehtd) Program (2005)

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for establishing flow trajectories and hydrologic connections and for determining basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test ...

Tracer-Test Planning Using the Efficient Hydrologic Tracer-Test Design (Ehtd) Program (2003)

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological tracer testing is the most reliable diagnostic technique available for establishing flow trajectories and hydrologic connections and for determining basic hydraulic and geometric parameters necessary for establishing operative solute-transport processes. Tracer-test ...

A physically-based Distributed Hydrologic Model for Tropical Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abebe, N. A.; Ogden, F. L.

2010-12-01

Hydrological models are mathematical formulations intended to represent observed hydrological processes in a watershed. Simulated watersheds in turn vary in their nature based on their geographic location, altitude, climatic variables and geology and soil formation. Due to these variations, available hydrologic models vary in process formulation, spatial and temporal resolution and data demand. Many tropical watersheds are characterized by extensive and persistent biological activity and a large amount of rain. The Agua Salud catchments located within the Panama Canal Watershed, Panama, are such catchments identified by steep rolling topography, deep soils derived from weathered bedrock, and limited exposed bedrock. Tropical soils are highly affected by soil cracks, decayed tree roots and earthworm burrows forming a network of preferential flow paths that drain to a perched water table, which forms at a depth where the vertical hydraulic conductivity is significantly reduced near the bottom of the bioturbation layer. We have developed a physics-based, spatially distributed, multi-layered hydrologic model to simulate the dominant processes in these tropical watersheds. The model incorporates the major flow processes including overland flow, channel flow, matrix and non-Richards film flow infiltration, lateral downslope saturated matrix and non-Darcian pipe flow in the bioturbation layer, and deep saturated groundwater flow. Emphasis is given to the modeling of subsurface unsaturated zone soil moisture dynamics and the saturated preferential lateral flow from the network of macrospores. Preliminary results indicate that the model has the capability to simulate the complex hydrological processes in the catchment and will be a useful tool in the ongoing comprehensive ecohydrological studies in tropical catchments, and help improve our understanding of the hydrological effects of deforestation and aforestation.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Land Configuration Changes Using an Integrated Hydrologic Model at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prucha, R. H.; Dayton, C. S.; Hawley, C. M.

2002-12-01

The Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colorado, a former Department of Energy nuclear weapons manufacturing facility, is currently undergoing closure. The natural semi-arid interaction between surface and subsurface flow at RFETS is complex and complicated by the industrial modifications to the flow system. Using a substantial site data set, a distributed parameter, fully-integrated hydrologic model was developed to assess the hydrologic impact of different hypothetical site closure configurations on the current flow system and to better understand the integrated hydrologic behavior of the system. An integrated model with this level of detail has not been previously developed in a semi-arid area, and a unique, but comprehensive, approach was required to calibrate and validate the model. Several hypothetical scenarios were developed to simulate hydrologic effects of modifying different aspects of the site. For example, some of the simulated modifications included regrading the current land surface, changing the existing surface channel network, removing subsurface trenches and gravity drain flow systems, installing a slurry wall and geotechnical cover, changing the current vegetative cover, and converting existing buildings and pavement to permeable soil areas. The integrated flow model was developed using a rigorous physically-based code so that realistic design parameters can simulate these changes. This code also permitted evaluation of changes to complex integrated hydrologic system responses that included channelized and overland flow, pond levels, unsaturated zone storage, groundwater heads and flow directions, and integrated water balances for key areas. Results generally show that channel flow offsite decreases substantially for different scenarios, while groundwater heads generally increase within the reconfigured industrial area most of which is then discharged as evapotranspiration. These changes have significant implications to site closure and operation.

Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

2016-02-01

Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An assessment of the feasibility of the use of satellite-only rainfall estimates for the hydrological monitoring in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, Lorenzo; Caparrini, Francesca

2013-04-01

The need for accurate distributed hydrological modelling has constantly increased in last years for several purposes: agricultural applications, water resources management, hydrological balance at watershed scale, floods forecast. The main input for the hydrological numerical models is rainfall data that present, at the same time, a large availability of measures (in gauged regions, with respect to other micro-meteorological variables) and the most complex spatial patterns. While also in presence of densely gauged watersheds the spatial interpolation of the rainfall is a non-trivial problem, due to the spatial intermittence of the variable (especially at finer temporal scales), ungauged regions need an alternative source of rainfall data in order to perform the hydrological modelling. Such source can be constituted by the satellite-estimated rainfall fields, with reference to both geostationary and polar-orbit platforms. In this work the rainfall product obtained by the Aqua-AIRS sensor were used in order to assess the feasibility of the use of satellite-based rainfall as input for distributed hydrological modelling. The MOBIDIC (MOdello di BIlancio Distribuito e Continuo) model, developed at the Department of civil and Environmental Engineering of the University of Florence and operationally used by Tuscany Region and Umbria Region for flood prediction and management, was used for the experiments. In particular three experiments were carried on: a) hydrological simulation with the use of rain-gauges data, b) simulation with the use of satellite-only rainfall estimates, c) simulation with the combined use of the two sources of data in order to obtain an optimal estimate of the actual rainfall fields. The domain of the study was the central Italy. Several critical events occurred in the area were analyzed. A discussion of the results is provided.

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

An approach to understanding hydrologic connectivity on the hillslope and the implications for nutrient transport

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stieglitz, M.; Shaman, J.; McNamara, J.; Engel, V.; Shanley, J.; Kling, G.W.

2003-01-01

Hydrologic processes control much of the export of organic matter and nutrients from the land surface. It is the variability of these hydrologic processes that produces variable patterns of nutrient transport in both space and time. In this paper, we explore how hydrologic "connectivity" potentially affects nutrient transport. Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the condition by which disparate regions on the hillslope are linked via subsurface water flow. We present simulations that suggest that for much of the year, water draining through a catchment is spatially isolated. Only rarely, during storm and snowmelt events when antecedent soil moisture is high, do our simulations suggest that mid-slope saturation (or near saturation) occurs and that a catchment connects from ridge to valley. Observations during snowmelt at a small headwater catchment in Idaho are consistent with these model simulations. During early season discharge episodes, in which the mid-slope soil column is not saturated, the electrical conductivity in the stream remains low, reflecting a restricted, local (lower slope) source of stream water and the continued isolation of upper and mid-slope soil water and nutrients from the stream system. Increased streamflow and higher stream water electrical conductivity, presumably reflecting the release of water from the upper reaches of the catchment, are simultaneously observed when the mid-slope becomes sufficiently wet. This study provides preliminary evidence that the seasonal timing of hydrologic connectivity may affect a range of ecological processes, including downslope nutrient transport, C/N cycling, and biological productivity along the toposequence. A better elucidation of hydrologic connectivity will be necessary for understanding local processes as well as material export from land to water at regional and global scales. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Evaluation of Spatial Pattern of Altered Flow Regimes on a River Network Using a Distributed Hydrological Model

PubMed Central

Ryo, Masahiro; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Yoshimura, Chihiro; Saavedra V., Oliver C.

2015-01-01

Alteration of the spatial variability of natural flow regimes has been less studied than that of the temporal variability, despite its ecological importance for river ecosystems. Here, we aimed to quantify the spatial patterns of flow regime alterations along a river network in the Sagami River, Japan, by estimating river discharge under natural and altered flow conditions. We used a distributed hydrological model, which simulates hydrological processes spatiotemporally, to estimate 20-year daily river discharge along the river network. Then, 33 hydrologic indices (i.e., Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration) were calculated from the simulated discharge to estimate the spatial patterns of their alterations. Some hydrologic indices were relatively well estimated such as the magnitude and timing of maximum flows, monthly median flows, and the frequency of low and high flow pulses. The accuracy was evaluated with correlation analysis (r > 0.4) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (α = 0.05) by comparing these indices calculated from both observed and simulated discharge. The spatial patterns of the flow regime alterations varied depending on the hydrologic indices. For example, both the median flow in August and the frequency of high flow pulses were reduced by the maximum of approximately 70%, but these strongest alterations were detected at different locations (i.e., on the mainstream and the tributary, respectively). These results are likely caused by different operational purposes of multiple water control facilities. The results imply that the evaluation only at discharge gauges is insufficient to capture the alteration of the flow regime. Our findings clearly emphasize the importance of evaluating the spatial pattern of flow regime alteration on a river network where its discharge is affected by multiple water control facilities. PMID:26207997

Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

2017-12-01

The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

Modelling hydrology of a single bioretention system with HYDRUS-1D.

PubMed

Meng, Yingying; Wang, Huixiao; Chen, Jiangang; Zhang, Shuhan

2014-01-01

A study was carried out on the effectiveness of bioretention systems to abate stormwater using computer simulation. The hydrologic performance was simulated for two bioretention cells using HYDRUS-1D, and the simulation results were verified by field data of nearly four years. Using the validated model, the optimization of design parameters of rainfall return period, filter media depth and type, and surface area was discussed. And the annual hydrologic performance of bioretention systems was further analyzed under the optimized parameters. The study reveals that bioretention systems with underdrains and impervious boundaries do have some detention capability, while their total water retention capability is extremely limited. Better detention capability is noted for smaller rainfall events, deeper filter media, and design storms with a return period smaller than 2 years, and a cost-effective filter media depth is recommended in bioretention design. Better hydrologic effectiveness is achieved with a higher hydraulic conductivity and ratio of the bioretention surface area to the catchment area, and filter media whose conductivity is between the conductivity of loamy sand and sandy loam, and a surface area of 10% of the catchment area is recommended. In the long-term simulation, both infiltration volume and evapotranspiration are critical for the total rainfall treatment in bioretention systems.

A Web-based Distributed Voluntary Computing Platform for Large Scale Hydrological Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Agliamzanov, R.

2014-12-01

Distributed volunteer computing can enable researchers and scientist to form large parallel computing environments to utilize the computing power of the millions of computers on the Internet, and use them towards running large scale environmental simulations and models to serve the common good of local communities and the world. Recent developments in web technologies and standards allow client-side scripting languages to run at speeds close to native application, and utilize the power of Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Using a client-side scripting language like JavaScript, we have developed an open distributed computing framework that makes it easy for researchers to write their own hydrologic models, and run them on volunteer computers. Users will easily enable their websites for visitors to volunteer sharing their computer resources to contribute running advanced hydrological models and simulations. Using a web-based system allows users to start volunteering their computational resources within seconds without installing any software. The framework distributes the model simulation to thousands of nodes in small spatial and computational sizes. A relational database system is utilized for managing data connections and queue management for the distributed computing nodes. In this paper, we present a web-based distributed volunteer computing platform to enable large scale hydrological simulations and model runs in an open and integrated environment.

Simulating Fire Disturbance and Plant Mortality Using Antecedent Eco-hydrological Conditions to Inform a Physically Based Combustion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atchley, A. L.; Linn, R.; Middleton, R. S.; Runde, I.; Coon, E.; Michaletz, S. T.

2016-12-01

Wildfire is a complex agent of change that both affects and depends on eco-hydrological systems, thereby constituting a tightly linked system of disturbances and eco-hydrological conditions. For example, structure, build-up, and moisture content of fuel are dependent on eco-hydrological regimes, which impacts fire spread and intensity. Fire behavior, on the other hand, determines the severity and extent of eco-hydrological disturbance, often resulting in a mosaic of untouched, stressed, damaged, or completely destroyed vegetation within the fire perimeter. This in turn drives new eco-hydrological system behavior. The cycles of disturbance and recovery present a complex evolving system with many unknowns especially in the face of climate change that has implications for fire risk, water supply, and forest composition. Physically-based numerical experiments that attempt to capture the complex linkages between eco-hydrological regimes that affect fire behavior and the echo-hydrological response from those fire disturbances help build the understanding required to project how fire disturbance and eco-hydrological conditions coevolve over time. Here we explore the use of FIRETEC—a physically-based 3D combustion model that solves conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and chemical species—to resolve fire spread over complex terrain and fuel structures. Uniquely, we couple a physically-based plant mortality model with FIRETEC and examine the resultant hydrologic impact. In this proof of concept demonstration we spatially distribute fuel structure and moisture content based on the eco-hydrological condition to use as input for FIRETEC. The fire behavior simulation then produces localized burn severity and heat injures which are used as input to a spatially-informed plant mortality model. Ultimately we demonstrate the applicability of physically-based models to explore integrated disturbance and eco-hydrologic response to wildfire behavior and specifically map how fire spread and intensity is affect by the antecedent eco-hydrological condition, which then affects the resulting tree mortality patterns.

The NASA GPM Iowa Flood Studies Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, W. A.; Krajewski, W. F.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Rutledge, S. A.; Wolff, D. B.

2013-12-01

The overarching objective of NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) integrated hydrologic ground validation (GV) is to provide a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of the satellite products, in the context of hydrologic applications. Accordingly, the NASA GPM GV program recently completed the first of several hydrology-oriented field efforts: the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) experiment. IFloodS was conducted in central Iowa during the months of April-June, 2013. IFloodS science objectives focused on: a) The collection of reference multi-parameter radar, rain gauge, disdrometer, soil moisture, and hydrologic network measurements to quantify the physical character and space/time variability of rain (e.g., rates, drop size distributions, processes), land surface- state and hydrologic response; b) Application of the ground reference measurements to assessment of satellite-based rainfall estimation uncertainties; c) Propagation of both ground and satellite rainfall estimation uncertainties in coupled hydrologic prediction models to assess impacts on predictive skill; and d) Evaluation of rainfall properties such as rate and accumulation relative to basin hydrologic characteristics in modeled flood genesis. IFloodS observational objectives were achieved via deployments of the NASA NPOL S-band and D3R Ka/Ku-band dual-polarimetric radars (operating in coordinated scanning modes), four University of Iowa X-band dual-polarimetric radars, four Micro Rain Radars, a network of 25 paired rain gauge platforms with attendant soil moisture and temperature probes, a network of six 2D Video and 14 Parsivel disdrometers, and 15 USDA-ARS rain gauge and soil-moisture stations (collaboration with the USDA-ARS and NASA Soil Moisture Active-Passive mission). The aforementioned platforms complemented existing operational WSR-88D S-band polarimetric radar, USGS streamflow, and Iowa Flood Center-affiliated stream monitoring and rainfall measurements. Coincident low-earth orbiter microwave, geostationary infrared, and derived satellite-algorithm rainfall products were also archived during the experiment. Twice daily NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were conducted to provide weather forecast guidance and a coupled atmospheric/land-surface model simulation benchmark. During the experiment the IFloodS observational domain experienced heavy rainfall (> 250-300 mm) and significant flooding. Deployed observational assets, especially the research radars performed well throughout the experiment, sampling a broad range of precipitation system types including multi-day mixtures of rain and snow, warm-season mesoscale convective systems, and supercell thunderstorms. The variety of regimes and large rain accumulations sampled creates a rich source of data for testing both satellite products and coupled atmospheric, land system, and hydrologic models. In this study we will provide an overview of the IFloodS experiment, datasets, and preliminary observational results.

Engaging Undergraduate Math Majors in Geoscience Research using Interactive Simulations and Computer Art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matott, L. S.; Hymiak, B.; Reslink, C. F.; Baxter, C.; Aziz, S.

2012-12-01

As part of the NSF-sponsored 'URGE (Undergraduate Research Group Experiences) to Compute' program, Dr. Matott has been collaborating with talented Math majors to explore the design of cost-effective systems to safeguard groundwater supplies from contaminated sites. Such activity is aided by a combination of groundwater modeling, simulation-based optimization, and high-performance computing - disciplines largely unfamiliar to the students at the outset of the program. To help train and engage the students, a number of interactive and graphical software packages were utilized. Examples include: (1) a tutorial for exploring the behavior of evolutionary algorithms and other heuristic optimizers commonly used in simulation-based optimization; (2) an interactive groundwater modeling package for exploring alternative pump-and-treat containment scenarios at a contaminated site in Billings, Montana; (3) the R software package for visualizing various concepts related to subsurface hydrology; and (4) a job visualization tool for exploring the behavior of numerical experiments run on a large distributed computing cluster. Further engagement and excitement in the program was fostered by entering (and winning) a computer art competition run by the Coalition for Academic Scientific Computation (CASC). The winning submission visualizes an exhaustively mapped optimization cost surface and dramatically illustrates the phenomena of artificial minima - valley locations that correspond to designs whose costs are only partially optimal.

Contribution of rainfall, snow and ice melt to the hydrological regime of the Arve upper catchment and to severe flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecourt, Grégoire; Revuelto, Jesús; Morin, Samuel; Zin, Isabella; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Condom, Thomas; Six, Delphine; Vionnet, Vincent; Charrois, Luc; Dumont, Marie; Gottardi, Frédéric; Laarman, Olivier; Coulaud, Catherine; Esteves, Michel; Lebel, Thierry; Vincent, Christian

2016-04-01

In Alpine catchments, the hydrological response to meteorological events is highly influenced by the precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and by snow and ice melt. It is thus necessary to simulate accurately the snowpack evolution and its spatial distribution to perform relevant hydrological simulations. This work is focused on the upper Arve Valley (Western Alps). This 205 km2 catchment has large glaciated areas (roughly 32% of the study area) and covers a large range of elevations (1000-4500 m a.s.l.). Snow presence is significant year-round. The area is also characterized by steep terrain and strong vegetation heterogeneity. Modelling hydrological processes in such a complex catchment is therefore challenging. The detailed ISBA land surface model (including the Crocus snowpack scheme) has been applied to the study area using a topography based discretization (classifying terrain by aspect, elevation, slope and presence of glacier). The meteorological forcing used to run the simulations is the reanalysis issued from the SAFRAN model which assimilates meteorological observations from the Meteo-France networks. Conceptual reservoirs with calibrated values of emptying parameters are used to represent the underground water storage. This approach has been tested to simulate the discharge on the Arve catchment and three sub-catchments over 1990-2015. The simulations were evaluated with respect to observed water discharges for several headwaters with varying glaciated areas. They allow to quantify the relative contribution of rainfall, snow and ice melt to the hydrological regime of the basin. Additionally, we present a detailed analysis of several particular flood events. For these events, the ability of the model to correctly represent the catchment behaviour is investigated, looking particularly to the relevance of the simulated snowpack. Particularly, its spatial distribution is evaluated using MODIS snow cover maps, punctual snowpack observations and summer glacier mass balance estimations.

Coupling Cellular Automata Land Use Change with Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, L.; Duffy, C.

2017-12-01

There has been extensive research on LUC modeling with broad applications to simulating urban growth and changing demographic patterns across multiple scales. The importance of land conversion is a critical issue in watershed scale studies and is generally not treated in most watershed modeling approaches. In this study we apply spatially explicit hydrologic and landuse change models and the Conestoga Watershed in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) partitions the water balance in space and time over the urban catchment, the coupled Cellular Automata Land Use Change model (CALUC) dynamically simulates the evolution of land use classes based on physical measures associated with population change and land use demand factors. The CALUC model is based on iteratively applying discrete rules to each individual spatial cell. The essence the CA modeling involves calculation of the Transition Potential (TP) for conversion of a grid cell from one land use class to another. This potential includes five factors: random perturbation, suitability, accessibility, neighborhood effect, inertia effects and zonal factors. In spite of simplicity, this CALUC model has been shown to be very effective for simulating LUC leading to the emergence of complex spatial patterns. The components of TP are derived from present land use data for landuse reanalysis and for realistic future land use scenarios. For the CALUC we use early-settlement (circa 1790) initial land class values and final or present-day (2010) land classes to calibrate the model. CALUC- PIHM dynamically simulates the hydrologic response of conversion from pre-settlement to present landuse. The simulations highlight the capability and value of dynamic coupling of catchment hydrology with land use change over long time periods. Analysis of the simulation uses various metrics such as the distributed water balance, flow duration curves, etc. to show how deforestation, urbanization and agricultural land development interact for the period 1790- present.

Simulating the complex output of rainfall and hydrological processes using the information contained in large data sets: the Direct Sampling approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, Fabio

2017-04-01

The unpredictable nature of rainfall makes its estimation as much difficult as it is essential to hydrological applications. Stochastic simulation is often considered a convenient approach to asses the uncertainty of rainfall processes, but preserving their irregular behavior and variability at multiple scales is a challenge even for the most advanced techniques. In this presentation, an overview on the Direct Sampling technique [1] and its recent application to rainfall and hydrological data simulation [2, 3] is given. The algorithm, having its roots in multiple-point statistics, makes use of a training data set to simulate the outcome of a process without inferring any explicit probability measure: the data are simulated in time or space by sampling the training data set where a sufficiently similar group of neighbor data exists. This approach allows preserving complex statistical dependencies at different scales with a good approximation, while reducing the parameterization to the minimum. The straights and weaknesses of the Direct Sampling approach are shown through a series of applications to rainfall and hydrological data: from time-series simulation to spatial rainfall fields conditioned by elevation or a climate scenario. In the era of vast databases, is this data-driven approach a valid alternative to parametric simulation techniques? [1] Mariethoz G., Renard P., and Straubhaar J. (2010), The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations, Water. Rerous. Res., 46(11), http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007621 [2] Oriani F., Straubhaar J., Renard P., and Mariethoz G. (2014), Simulation of rainfall time series from different climatic regions using the direct sampling technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015-3031, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014 [3] Oriani F., Borghi A., Straubhaar J., Mariethoz G., Renard P. (2016), Missing data simulation inside flow rate time-series using multiple-point statistics, Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 86, pp. 264 - 276, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.002

Extract useful knowledge from agro-hydrological simulations data for decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gascuel-odoux, C.; Bouadi, T.; Cordier, M.; Quiniou, R.

2013-12-01

In recent years, models have been developed and used to test the effect of scenarios and help stakeholders in decision making. Agro-hydrological models have guided agricultural water management by testing the effect of landscape structure and farming system changes on water quantity and quality. Such models generate a large amount of data but few are stored and are often not customized for stakeholders, so that a great amount of information is lost from the simulation process or not transformed in a usable format. A first approach, already published (Trepos et al., 2012), has been developed to identify object oriented tree patterns, that represent surface flow and pollutant pathways from plot to plot, involved in water pollution by herbicides. A simulation model (Gascuel-odoux et al., 2009) predicted herbicide transfer rate, defined as the proportion of applied herbicide that reaches water courses. The predictions were used as a set of learning examples for symbolic learning techniques to induce rules based on qualitative and quantitative attributes and explain two extreme classes in transfer rate. Two automatic symbolic learning techniques were used: the inductive logic programming approach to induce spatial tree patterns, and an attribute-value method to induce aggregated attributes of the trees. A visualization interface allows the users to identify rules explaining contamination and mitigation measures improving the current situation. A second approach has been recently developed to analyse directly the simulated data (Bouadi et al, submitted). A data warehouse called N-catch has been built to store and manage simulation data from the agro-hydrological model TNT2 (Beaujouan et al., 2002). 44 output key simulated variables are stored per plot and at a daily time step on a 50 squared km area, i.e, 8 GB of storage size. After identifying the set of multileveled dimensions integrating hierarchical structures and relationships among related dimension levels, N-Catch has been designed using the open source Business Intelligence Platform Pentaho. We show how to use online analytical processing (OLAP) to access and exploit, intuitively and quickly, the multidimensional and aggregated data from the N-Catch data warehouse. We illustrate how the data warehouse can be used to explore spatio-temporal dimensions efficiently and to discover new knowledge at multiple levels of simulation. OLAP tool can be used to synthesize environmental information and understand nitrogen emissions in water bodies by generating comparative and personalized views of historical data. This DWH is currently extended with data mining or information retrieval methods as Skyline queries to perform advanced analyses (Bouadi et al., 2012). Bouadi et al. N-Catch: A Data Warehouse for Multilevel Analysis of Simulated Nitrogen Data from an Agro-hydrological Model. Submitted. Bouadi et al., 2012) Bouadi, T., Cordier, M., and Quiniou, R. (2012). Incremental computation of skyline queries with dynamic preferences. In DEXA (1), pages 219-233. Trepos et al. 2012. Mining simulation data by rule induction to determine critical source areas of stream water pollution by herbicides. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 86, 75-88.

Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant parameter values over the whole reference period. Further, preliminary results suggest that some trends in parameter values do not reflect changes in hydrological processes, as reported by others previously, but instead might stem from a modeling artifact related to the parameterization of evapotranspiration, which is overly sensitive to temperature increase. We adopt a trading-space-for-time approach to better understand whether robust relationships between parameter values and forcing can be established, and to critically explore the rationale behind time-dependent parameter values in conceptual hydrological models.

Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheer, D. P.

2008-12-01

For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints, and short term objectives) as well. In the models operating rules represent different models of human behavior, and the objective of the modeling is to find rules for human behavior that perform well in terms of long term human objectives. The conceptual model used to represent human behavior incorporates economic multi-objective optimization for surrogate objectives, and rules that set those objectives based on current conditions and accounting for uncertainty, at least implicitly. The author asserts that real world operating rules follow this form and have evolved because they have been perceived as successful in the past. Thus, the modeling efforts focus on human behavior in much the same way that economic models focus on human behavior. This paper illustrates the above concepts with real world examples.

Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

2009-12-01

Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual wildfire occurrence historically and under the above-cited future climate scenarios, and discuss how these results are being integrated with process-based ecosystem models and field data to model changes in carbon flux across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem landscape (8). 1. Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan, Swetnam, Science 313, 940 (2006). 2. Tymstra, Flannigan, Armitage, Logan, Int’l J. Wildland Fire 16, 153 (2007). 3. U. S. G. A. O. GAO. (2007). 4. Liang, Lettenmaier, Wood, Burges. J. Geophys. Res. 99(D7), 14,415 (1994). 5. Maurer, Wood, Adam, Lettenmaier, Nijssen. J. Climate 15:3237 (2002). 6. Cayan, Maurer, Dettinger, Tyree, Hayhoe. Climatic Change 87(Suppl. 1) 21 (2008). 7. Hidalgo, Dettinger Cayan, CEC Report CEC-500-2007-123 (2008). 8. We acknowledge support from the Joint Fire Science Program (Project ID 09-3-01-47), the NOAA RISA program for California, and the US Forest Service.

Modeling the Hydrologic Response to Changes in Groundcover Conditions Caused by Fire Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikinzon, E.; Atchley, A. L.; Coon, E.; Middleton, R. S.

2016-12-01

Climate change and fire suppression increase wildfire activity, which alters ecosystem functions and can significantly impact hydrological response. Both wildfire and prescribed burns reduce groundcover, affect top layers of subsurface, and change the structure of overland flow pathways. To understand respective effects on surface and subsurface hydrology, it is imperative to accurately represent surface-subsurface interface pre and post-fire, and to model physical processes in groundcover components. We show mechanistic models used to describe physics in two key types of groundcover, litter and duff, in Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS). Litter is considered to be a part of vegetative canopy covering the surface. It has associated water storage capacity, which allows simulating interception and drainage, and its thickness is used to evaluate surface roughness with potential effect of slowing overland flow compared to bare soil. Duff on the other hand is incorporated into the subsurface, thus requiring meshing and discretization capability to support complex geometries including pinchouts, which is necessary both for achieving desired mesh resolution and portraying bare soil patches without adversely affecting the time scale. As part of the subsurface, duff has its own hydrologic and water retention properties used to resolve infiltration and saturation limited runoff generation, run on, and infiltration processes. This enables the use of ATS for fine scale modeling of integrated hydrology with adequate representation of groundcover influence. To isolate the impact of changing groundcover, we consider a simple hill slope and study the hydrological response to varying amount and geometries of groundcover. To cover landscape characteristics produced by a wide variety of fire conditions, from high intensity to low intensity fire impacts, we simulate hydrologic response to precipitation events over a number of typical geometries and with fine control over amounts of two described types of groundcover. We then analyze hydrological sensitivity to presence or absence of particular groundcover types, their respective patchiness, and possible changes in overland flow pathways.

Testing conceptual and physically based soil hydrology schemes against observations for the Amazon Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimberteau, M.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.; Boisier, J. P.; Peng, S.; De Weirdt, M.; Verbeeck, H.

2014-06-01

This study analyzes the performance of the two soil hydrology schemes of the land surface model ORCHIDEE in estimating Amazonian hydrology and phenology for five major sub-basins (Xingu, Tapajós, Madeira, Solimões and Negro), during the 29-year period 1980-2008. A simple 2-layer scheme with a bucket topped by an evaporative layer is compared to an 11-layer diffusion scheme. The soil schemes are coupled with a river routing module and a process model of plant physiology, phenology and carbon dynamics. The simulated water budget and vegetation functioning components are compared with several data sets at sub-basin scale. The use of the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme does not significantly change the Amazonian water budget simulation when compared to the 2-layer soil scheme (+3.1 and -3.0% in evapotranspiration and river discharge, respectively). However, the higher water-holding capacity of the soil and the physically based representation of runoff and drainage in the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme result in more dynamic soil water storage variation and improved simulation of the total terrestrial water storage when compared to GRACE satellite estimates. The greater soil water storage within the 11-layer scheme also results in increased dry-season evapotranspiration (+0.5 mm d-1, +17%) and improves river discharge simulation in the southeastern sub-basins such as the Xingu. Evapotranspiration over this sub-basin is sustained during the whole dry season with the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme, whereas the 2-layer scheme limits it after only 2 dry months. Lower plant drought stress simulated by the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme leads to better simulation of the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis (GPP) when compared to a GPP data-driven model based on eddy covariance and satellite greenness measurements. A dry-season length between 4 and 7 months over the entire Amazon Basin is found to be critical in distinguishing differences in hydrological feedbacks between the soil and the vegetation cover simulated by the two soil schemes. On average, the multilayer soil diffusion scheme provides little improvement in simulated hydrology over the wet tropical Amazonian sub-basins, but a more significant improvement is found over the drier sub-basins. The use of a multilayer soil diffusion scheme might become critical for assessments of future hydrological changes, especially in southern regions of the Amazon Basin where longer dry seasons and more severe droughts are expected in the next century.

Investigation of possible effects of surface coal mining on hydrology and landscape stability in part of the Powder River structural basin, northeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bloyd, R.M.; Daddow, P.B.; Jordon, P.R.; Lowham, H.W.

1986-01-01

The effects of surface coal mining on the surface- and groundwater systems in a 5,400 sq mi area in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, that includes 20 major coal mines were evaluated using three approaches: A surface water model, a landscape-stability analysis, and a groundwater model. A surface water model was developed for the Belle Fourche River basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran model was used to simulate changes in streamflow and changes in dissolved-solids and sulfate concentrations. Simulated streamflows resulting from less than average rainfall were small, changes in flow from premining to during-mining and postmining conditions were less than 2.5%, and changes in mean dissolved-solids and sulfate concentrations ranged from 1 to 7%. A landscape-stability analysis resulted in regression relations to aid in the reconstruction of reclaimed drainage networks. Hypsometric analyses indicate the larger basins are relatively stable, and statistical data from these basins may be used to design the placement of material within a mined basin to approximate natural, stable landscapes in the area. The attempt to define and simulate the groundwater system in the area using a groundwater-flow model was unsuccessful. The steady-state groundwater-flow model could not be calibrated. The modeling effort failed principally because of insufficient quantity and quality of data to define the spatial distribution of aquifer properties; the hydraulic-head distribution within and between aquifers; and the rates of groundwater recharge and discharge, especially for steady-state conditions. (USGS)

Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties (Alexander von Humboldt Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujumdar, Pradeep P.

2014-05-01

Climate change results in regional hydrologic change. The three prominent signals of global climate change, viz., increase in global average temperatures, rise in sea levels and change in precipitation patterns convert into signals of regional hydrologic change in terms of modifications in water availability, evaporative water demand, hydrologic extremes of floods and droughts, water quality, salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers, groundwater recharge and other related phenomena. A major research focus in hydrologic sciences in recent years has been assessment of impacts of climate change at regional scales. An important research issue addressed in this context deals with responses of water fluxes on a catchment scale to the global climatic change. A commonly adopted methodology for assessing the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change is to use the climate projections provided by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) for specified emission scenarios in conjunction with the process-based hydrologic models to generate the corresponding hydrologic projections. The scaling problem arising because of the large spatial scales at which the GCMs operate compared to those required in distributed hydrologic models, and their inability to satisfactorily simulate the variables of interest to hydrology are addressed by downscaling the GCM simulations to hydrologic scales. Projections obtained with this procedure are burdened with a large uncertainty introduced by the choice of GCMs and emission scenarios, small samples of historical data against which the models are calibrated, downscaling methods used and other sources. Development of methodologies to quantify and reduce such uncertainties is a current area of research in hydrology. In this presentation, an overview of recent research carried out by the author's group on assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change addressing scale issues and quantification of uncertainties is provided. Methodologies developed with conditional random fields, Dempster-Shafer theory, possibility theory, imprecise probabilities and non-stationary extreme value theory are discussed. Specific applications on uncertainty quantification in impacts on streamflows, evaporative water demands, river water quality and urban flooding are presented. A brief discussion on detection and attribution of hydrologic change at river basin scales, contribution of landuse change and likely alterations in return levels of hydrologic extremes is also provided.

How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith

2013-01-01

Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

Distributed simulation of long-term hydrological processes in a medium-sized periurban catchment under changing land use and rainwater management.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labbas, Mériem; Braud, Isabelle; Branger, Flora; Kralisch, Sven

2013-04-01

Growing urbanization and related anthropogenic processes have a high potential to influence hydrological process dynamics. Typical consequences are an increase of surface imperviousness and modifications of water flow paths due to artificial channels and barriers (combined and separated system, sewer overflow device, roads, ditches, etc.). Periurban catchments, at the edge of large cities, are especially affected by fast anthropogenic modifications. They usually consist of a combination of natural areas, rural areas with dispersed settlements and urban areas mostly covered by built zones and spots of natural surfaces. In the context of the European Water Framework Directive (2000) and the Floods Directive (2007), integrated and sustainable solutions are needed to reduce flooding risks and river pollution at the scale of urban conglomerations or whole catchments. Their thorough management requires models able to assess the vulnerability of the territory and to compare the impact of different rainwater management options and planning issues. To address this question, we propose a methodology based on a multi-scale distributed hydrological modelling approach. It aims at quantifying the impact of ongoing urbanization and stormwater management on the long-term hydrological cycle in medium-sized periurban watershed. This method focuses on the understanding and formalization of dominant periurban hydrological processes from small scales (few ha to few km2) to larger scales (few hundred km2). The main objectives are to 1) simulate both urban and rural hydrological processes and 2) test the effects of different long-term land use and water management scenarios. The method relies on several tools and data: a distributed hydrological model adapted to the characteristics of periurban areas, land use and land cover maps from different dates (past, present, future) and information about rainwater management collected from local authorities. For the application of the method, the medium-scaled catchment of Yzeron (France) is chosen. It is subjected to a fast progression of urbanization since the eighties and has been monitored for a long time period. The fully-distributed hydrological model J2000, available through the JAMS modelling framework, was found appropriate to simulate the water balance of the Yzeron catchment at a daily time step. However, it was not designed especially for periurban areas, so its structure and parameters are under adaptation. Firstly, as hydrological responses in urban areas are quicker than in rural areas, a sub-daily time step is necessary to improve the simulation of periurban hydrological processes. Therefore, J2000 was adapted to be run at a hourly time step. Secondly, in order to better take into account rainwater management, an explicit representation of sewer networks is implemented in the J2000 model whose periurban version is called J2000P. It receives urban rainwater coming from impervious surfaces connected to a combined sewer system and delivers this water to the treatment plant or directly to the river in case of sewer overflow device outflows. We will present the impact of these modifications on the simulated hydrological regime.

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE PAGES

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.; ...

2017-09-14

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.

Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which bettermore » represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to simulated hydrographs based on the coarse-resolution datasets. On average, the small-scale parameterization scheme improves the total runoff simulation by up to 50 % in the LowP sub-basin and by up to 10 % in the HighP sub-basin from the large-scale parameterization. This study shows that the proposed sub-grid parameterization method can be used to improve the performance of mesoscale hydrological models in the Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds.« less

IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC FUNCTION

EPA Science Inventory

Although urbanization has a major impact on watershed hydrology, there have not been studies to quantify basic hydrological relationships that are altered by the addition of impervious surfaces. The USDA-ARS and USEPA-ORD-NRMRL have initiated a pilot program to study the impacts...

Testing the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model to simulate contributing area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengistu, S. G.; Spence, C.

2016-06-01

A dry climate, the prevalence of small depressions, and the lack of a well-developed drainage network are characteristics of environments with extremely variable contributing areas to runoff. These types of regions arguably present the greatest challenge to properly understanding catchment streamflow generation processes. Previous studies have shown that contributing area dynamics are important for streamflow response, but the nature of the relationship between the two is not typically understood. Furthermore, it is not often tested how well hydrological models simulate contributing area. In this study, the ability of a semidistributed hydrological model, the PDMROF configuration of Environment Canada's MESH model, was tested to determine if it could simulate contributing area. The study focused on the St. Denis Creek watershed in central Saskatchewan, Canada, which with its considerable topographic depressions, exhibits wide variation in contributing area, making it ideal for this type of investigation. MESH-PDMROF was able to replicate contributing area derived independently from satellite imagery. Daily model simulations revealed a hysteretic relationship between contributing area and streamflow not apparent from the less frequent remote sensing observations. This exercise revealed that contributing area extent can be simulated by a semi-distributed hydrological model with a scheme that assumes storage capacity distribution can be represented with a probability function. However, further investigation is needed to determine if it can adequately represent the complex relationship between streamflow and contributing area that is such a key signature of catchment behavior.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

1998-01-01

Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

Development of a software framework for data assimilation and its applications for streamflow forecasting in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, S. J.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.; Yorozu, K.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Data assimilation methods have received increased attention to accomplish uncertainty assessment and enhancement of forecasting capability in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modeling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modeling framework for sequential data assimilation, so called MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modeling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. Sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models based on MPI-OHyMoS considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for short-term streamflow forecasting of several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and remotely-sensed rainfall data such as X-band or C-band radar is estimated and mitigated in the sequential data assimilation.

Unraveling the Hydrology of the Glacierized Kaidu Basin by Integrating Multisource Data in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Brenning, Alexander

2018-01-01

Understanding the water balance, especially as it relates to the distribution of runoff components, is crucial for water resource management and coping with the impacts of climate change. However, hydrological processes are poorly known in mountainous regions due to data scarcity and the complex dynamics of snow and glaciers. This study aims to provide a quantitative comparison of gridded precipitation products in the Tianshan Mountains, located in Central Asia and in order to further understand the mountain hydrology and distribution of runoff components in the glacierized Kaidu Basin. We found that gridded precipitation products are affected by inconsistent biases based on a spatiotemporal comparison with the nearest weather stations and should be evaluated with caution before using them as boundary conditions in hydrological modeling. Although uncertainties remain in this data-scarce basin, driven by field survey data and bias-corrected gridded data sets (ERA-Interim and APHRODITE), the water balance and distribution of runoff components can be plausibly quantified based on the distributed hydrological model (J2000). We further examined parameter sensitivity and uncertainty with respect to both simulated streamflow and different runoff components based on an ensemble of simulations. This study demonstrated the possibility of integrating gridded products in hydrological modeling. The methodology used can be important for model applications and design in other data-scarce mountainous regions. The model-based simulation quantified the water balance and how the water resources are partitioned throughout the year in Tianshan Mountain basins, although the uncertainties present in this study result in important limitations.

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

One multi-media environmental system with linkage between meteorology/ hydrology/ air quality models and water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, C.; Lynch, J. A.; Dennis, R. L.

2016-12-01

The biogeochemical processing of nitrogen and associated pollutants is driven by meteorological and hydrological processes in conjunction with pollutant loading. There are feedbacks between meteorology and hydrology that will be affected by land-use change and climate change. Changes in meteorology will affect pollutant deposition. It is important to account for those feedbacks and produce internally consistent simulations of meteorology, hydrology, and pollutant loading to drive the (watershed/water quality) biogeochemical models. In this study, the ecological response to emission reductions in streams in the Potomac watershed was evaluated. Firstly, we simulated the deposition by using the fully coupled Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CAMQ) model; secondly, we created the hydrological data by the offline linked Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the WRF model. Lastly, we investigated the water quality by one comprehensive/environment model, namely the linkage of CMAQ, WRF, VIC and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchment (MAGIC) model from 2002 to 2010.The simulated results (such as NO3, SO4, and SBC) fit well to the observed values. The linkage provides a generally accurate, well-tested tool for evaluating sensitivities to varying meteorology and environmental changes on acidification and other biogeochemical processes, with capability to comprehensively explore strategic policy and management design.

Effects of DEM source and resolution on WEPP hydrologic and erosion simulation: A case study of two forest watersheds in northern Idaho

Treesearch

J. X. Zhang; J. Q. Wu; K. Chang; W. J. Elliot; S. Dun

2009-01-01

The recent modification of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model has improved its applicability to hydrology and erosion modeling in forest watersheds. To generate reliable topographic and hydrologic inputs for the WEPP model, carefully selecting digital elevation models (DEMs) with appropriate resolution and accuracy is essential because topography is a...

Analysis of hydrological response to land use changes based on Low Impact Development—a case study on the southern area of Fangshan National Geopark in Nanjing city, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Fu, D., Sr.

2016-12-01

The hydrological response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LUCC) is the most active field in the international hydrological science research, and it is also a particular concern in the process of Chinese urban construction and renewal, many studies have shown that large-scale land use change is an important factor leading to the regional climate and hydrological cycle changes. Therefore, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) and International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and International Programme of Biodiversity Science (DIVERSITAS) program take land use change as one core program. The change of regional vegetation ecosystem caused by land use change, in turn, has a very significant impact on the regional hydrological cycle. Currently the influence of hydrological processes attributed correlated with land-use type were not fully considered in urban LUCC, the hydrological effect on urban-scale LUCC has just started. Since 2015, Chinese government began to implement "Sponge City" construction, however, the sponge city construction often takes the water resources management as the target, and mainly focuses on the rational allocation of urban water resources in conjunction with ignoring the response of LUCC on the water system. The hydrological response on LUCC need to use the scenario design method to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the hydrological change on LUCC. According to the control rate of the runoff volume and land information, the coverage rate of sponge facilities determined before planning, such as bioretention, permeable pavement and greening roof, are adjusted and then are checked on the basis of storage volume, the coverage rate of the sponge facilities that can accommodate the total runoff volume are put forward. This research addresses the hydrological response changes on the land use before and after the use of LID using the scenario design method and identifies the sponge facilities with the aid of XPDrainage software on the southern area of Fangshan National Geopark in Nanjing city, China. A technical method to evaluate the influence of land use change on hydrological process and its response during the sponge city construction process is preliminarily discussed.

A systematic assessment of watershed-scale nonpoint source pollution during rainfall-runoff events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiali; Shen, Zhenyao; Wei, Guoyuan; Wang, Guobo; Xie, Hui; Lv, Guanping

2018-03-01

The assessment of peak flow rate, total runoff volume, and pollutant loads during rainfall process are very important for the watershed management and the ecological restoration of aquatic environment. Real-time measurements of rainfall-runoff and pollutant loads are always the most reliable approach but are difficult to carry out at all desired location in the watersheds considering the large consumption of material and financial resources. An integrated environmental modeling approach for the estimation of flash streamflow that combines the various hydrological and quality processes during rainstorms within the agricultural watersheds is essential to develop targeted management strategies for the endangered drinking water. This study applied the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate the spatial and temporal variation in hydrological processes and pollutant transport processes during rainstorm events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, a drinking water resource area in Beijing. The model performance indicators ensured the acceptable applicability of the HSPF model to simulate flow and pollutant loads in the studied watershed and to establish a relationship between land use and the parameter values. The proportion of soil and land use was then identified as the influencing factors of the pollution intensities. The results indicated that the flush concentrations were much higher than those observed during normal flow periods and considerably exceeded the limits of Class III Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB3838-2002) for the secondary protection zones of the drinking water resource in China. Agricultural land and leached cinnamon soils were identified as the key sources of sediment, nutrients, and fecal coliforms. Precipitation volume was identified as a driving factor that determined the amount of runoff and pollutant loads during rainfall processes. These results are useful to improve the streamflow predictions, provide useful information for the identification of highly polluted areas, and aid the development of integrated watershed management system in the drinking water resource area.

An Evaluation System for the Online Training Programs in Meteorology and Hydrology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Yong; Zhi, Xiefei

2009-01-01

This paper studies the current evaluation system for the online training program in meteorology and hydrology. CIPP model that includes context evaluation, input evaluation, process evaluation and product evaluation differs from Kirkpatrick model including reactions evaluation, learning evaluation, transfer evaluation and results evaluation in…

Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

2016-04-01

The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability of streamflows observed in the 20th century is generally weaker in the hydrological simulations done with the historical simulations from climate models. References: Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling mehtod for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi:10.1002/2014JD022236

A generalized methodology for identification of threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

M, J.; Sudheer, K.; Chaubey, I.; Raj, C.

2016-12-01

The distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a comprehensive hydrologic model widely used for making various decisions. The simulation accuracy of the distributed hydrological model differs due to the mechanism involved in the subdivision of the watershed. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) considers sub-dividing the watershed and the sub-basins into small computing units known as 'hydrologic response units (HRU). The delineation of HRU is done based on unique combinations of land use, soil types, and slope within the sub-watersheds, which are not spatially defined. The computations in SWAT are done at HRU level and are then aggregated up to the sub-basin outlet, which is routed through the stream system. Generally, the HRUs are delineated by considering a threshold percentage of land use, soil and slope are to be given by the modeler to decrease the computation time of the model. The thresholds constrain the minimum area for constructing an HRU. In the current HRU delineation practice in SWAT, the land use, soil and slope of the watershed within a sub-basin, which is less than the predefined threshold, will be surpassed by the dominating land use, soil and slope, and introduce some level of ambiguity in the process simulations in terms of inappropriate representation of the area. But the loss of information due to variation in the threshold values depends highly on the purpose of the study. Therefore this research studies the effects of threshold values of HRU delineation on the hydrological modeling of SWAT on sediment simulations and suggests guidelines for selecting the appropriate threshold values considering the sediment simulation accuracy. The preliminary study was done on Illinois watershed by assigning different thresholds for land use and soil. A general methodology was proposed for identifying an appropriate threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model that considered computational time and accuracy of the simulation. The methodology can be adopted for identifying an appropriate threshold for SWAT model simulation in any watershed with a single simulation of the model with a zero-zero threshold.

Simulation of hydrologic conditions and suspended-sediment loads in the San Antonio River Basin downstream from San Antonio, Texas, 2000-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, J. Ryan; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2014-01-01

Suspended sediment in rivers and streams can play an important role in ecological health of rivers and estuaries and consequently is an important issue for water-resource managers. To better understand suspended-sediment loads and transport in a watershed, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, developed a Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN model to simulate hydrologic conditions and suspended-sediment loads during 2000–12 for four watersheds, which comprise the overall study area in the San Antonio River Basin (hereinafter referred to as the “USGS–2014 model”). The study area consists of approximately 2,150 square miles encompassing parts of Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, Goliad, Victoria, and Refugio Counties. The USGS–2014 model was calibrated for hydrology and suspended sediment for 2006–12. Overall, model-fit statistics and graphic evaluations from the calibration and testing periods provided multiple lines of evidence indicating that the USGS–2014 model simulations of hydrologic and suspended-sediment conditions were mostly “good” to “very good.” Model simulation results indicated that approximately 1,230 tons per day of suspended sediment exited the study area and were delivered to the Guadalupe River during 2006–12, of which approximately 62 percent originated upstream from the study area. Sample data and simulated model results indicate that most of the suspended-sediment load in the study area consisted of silt- and clay-sized particles (less than 0.0625 millimeters). The Cibolo Creek watershed was the largest contributor of suspended sediment from the study area. For the entire study area, open/developed land and cropland exhibited the highest simulated soil erosion rates; however, the largest contributions of sediment (by land-cover type) were pasture and forest/rangeland/shrubland, which together composed approximately 80 percent of the land cover of the study area and generated about 70 percent of the suspended-sediment load from the study area.

A Simple Water Balance Model Adapted for Arctic Hydrology Reveals Glacier and Streamflow Responses to Climate Change in the Copper River, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentin, M. M.; Hay, L.; Van Beusekom, A. E.; Viger, R. J.; Hogue, T. S.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the hydrologic response to climate change in Alaska's glaciated watersheds remains daunting for hydrologists due to sparse field data and few modeling tools, which frustrates efforts to manage and protect critical aquatic habitat. Approximately 20% of the 64,000 square kilometer Copper River watershed is glaciated, and its glacier-fed tributaries support renowned salmon fisheries that are economically, culturally, and nutritionally invaluable to the local communities. This study adapts a simple, yet powerful, conceptual hydrologic model to simulate changes in the timing and volume of streamflow in the Copper River, Alaska as glaciers change under plausible future climate scenarios. The USGS monthly water balance model (MWBM), a hydrologic tool used for two decades to evaluate a broad range of hydrologic questions in the contiguous U.S., was enhanced to include glacier melt simulations and remotely sensed data. In this presentation we summarize the technical details behind our MWBM adaptation and demonstrate its use in the Copper River Basin to evaluate glacier and streamflow responses to climate change.

USGS Geospatial Fabric and Geo Data Portal for Continental Scale Hydrology Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, K. M.; Newman, A. J.; Blodgett, D. L.; Viger, R.; Hay, L.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

This presentation describes use of United States Geological Survey (USGS) data products and server-based resources for continental-scale hydrologic simulations. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group provides a consistent national geospatial fabric built on NHDPlus. They have defined more than 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRUs) over the continental United States based on points of interest (POIs) and split into left and right bank based on the corresponding stream segment. Geophysical attributes are calculated for each HRU that can be used to define parameters in hydrologic and land-surface models. The Geo Data Portal (GDP) project at the USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) provides access to downscaled climate datasets and processing services via web-interface and python modules for creating forcing datasets for any polygon (such as an HRU). These resources greatly reduce the labor required for creating model-ready data in-house, contributing to efficient and effective modeling applications. We will present an application of this USGS cyber-infrastructure for assessments of impacts of climate change on hydrology over the continental United States.

Explicit modeling of groundwater-surface water interactions using a simple bucket-type model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staudinger, Maria; Carlier, Claire; Brunner, Philip; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Longer dry spells can become critical for water supply and groundwater dependent ecosystems. During these dry spells groundwater is often the most relevant source for streams. Hence, the hydrological behavior of a catchment is often dominated by groundwater surface water interactions, which can vary considerably in space and time. While classical hydrological approaches hardly consider this spatial dependence, quantitative, hydrogeological modeling approaches can couple surface runoff processes and groundwater processes. Hydrogeological modeling can help to gain an improved understanding of catchment processes during low flow. However, due to their complex parametrization and large computational requirements, such hydrogeological models are difficult to employ at catchment scale, particularly for a larger set of catchments. Then bucket-type hydrological models remain a practical alternative. In this study we combine the strengths of both the hydrogeological and bucket-type hydrological models to better understand low flow processes and ultimately to use this knowledge for low flow projections. Bucket-type hydrological models have traditionally not been developed with focus on the simulation of low flow. One consequence is that interactions between surface and groundwater are not explicitly considered. Water fluxes in bucket-type hydrological models are commonly simulated only in one direction, namely from the groundwater to the stream but not from the stream to the groundwater. This latter flux, however, can become more important during low flow situations. We therefore further developed the bucket-type hydrological model HBV to simulate low flow situations by allowing for exchange in both directions i.e. also from the stream to the groundwater. The additional HBV exchange box is developed by using a variety of synthetic hydrogeological models as training set that were generated using a fully coupled, physically based hydrogeological model. In this way processes that occur in different spatial settings within the catchment are translated to functional relationships and effective parameter values for the conceptual exchange box can be extracted. Here, we show the development and evaluation of the HBV exchange box. We further show a first application in real catchments and evaluate the model performance by comparing the simulations to benchmark models that do not consider groundwater surface water interaction.

Modelling hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes in basins with large semi-arid wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Pontes, Paulo; Crétaux, Jean-François; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Gosset, Marielle; Calmant, Stephane; Tanimoun, Bachir

2018-06-01

Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are core tools for simulation of large basins and complex river systems associated to wetlands. Recent studies have pointed towards the importance of online coupling strategies, representing feedbacks between floodplain inundation and vertical hydrology. Especially across semi-arid regions, soil-floodplain interactions can be strong. In this study, we included a two-way coupling scheme in a large scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model (MGB) and tested different model structures, in order to assess which processes are important to be simulated in large semi-arid wetlands and how these processes interact with water budget components. To demonstrate benefits from this coupling over a validation case, the model was applied to the Upper Niger River basin encompassing the Niger Inner Delta, a vast semi-arid wetland in the Sahel Desert. Simulation was carried out from 1999 to 2014 with daily TMPA 3B42 precipitation as forcing, using both in-situ and remotely sensed data for calibration and validation. Model outputs were in good agreement with discharge and water levels at stations both upstream and downstream of the Inner Delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) >0.6 for most gauges), as well as for flooded areas within the Delta region (NSE = 0.6; r = 0.85). Model estimates of annual water losses across the Delta varied between 20.1 and 30.6 km3/yr, while annual evapotranspiration ranged between 760 mm/yr and 1130 mm/yr. Evaluation of model structure indicated that representation of both floodplain channels hydrodynamics (storage, bifurcations, lateral connections) and vertical hydrological processes (floodplain water infiltration into soil column; evapotranspiration from soil and vegetation and evaporation of open water) are necessary to correctly simulate flood wave attenuation and evapotranspiration along the basin. Two-way coupled models are necessary to better understand processes in large semi-arid wetlands. Finally, such coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling proves to be an important tool for integrated evaluation of hydrological processes in such poorly gauged, large scale basins. We hope that this model application provides new ways forward for large scale model development in such systems, involving semi-arid regions and complex floodplains.

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed hydrology. However, a thorough validation and a comparison with other methods are recommended before using the JBC method, since it may perform worse than the IBC method for some cases due to bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs.

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Montana, October 1983 through September 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, R.S.

1984-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey investigations of the water resources of Montana are described. Hydrologic information and knowledge of the water resources are gained and disseminated principally by programs of (1) collecting hydrologic data on a continuing basis , (2) conducting water-resources appraisals of surface and ground water, (3) conducting supportive research in hydrology and related fields, (4) disseminating water data and results of investigations to the public, (5) coordinating acquisition of water data by Federal agencies, and (6) providing technical assistance in hydrologic fields to other government agencies. The Montana district of the U.S. Geological Survey conducts its hydrologic work through a headquarters office in Helena, a subdistrict office in Billings, and field offices in Helena, Fort Peck, and Kalispell. The district employs 67 people to work on 25 funded projects that are organized under the general categories of data-collection programs, problem-oriented studies , a real appraisals, coal-related studies, research projects, and hydrologic studies and research performed under contracts to research organizations. (USGS)

Hydrological excitation of polar motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, Y.; Kolaczek, B.

2006-08-01

Hydrological excitation of the polar motion (HAM) were computed from the available recently hydrological data series (NCEP, ECMWF, CPC water storage and LaD World simulations of global continental water) and compared. Time variable seasonal spectra of these hydrological excitation functions and of the geodetic excitation function of polar motion computed from the polar motion COMB03 data were compared showing big differences in their temporal characteristics and the necessity of the further improvement of the HAM models. Seasonal oscillations of the global geophysical excitation functions (AAM + OAM + HAM) and their time variations were compared also. These hydrological excitation functions do not close the budget of the global geophysical excitation function of polar motion.

Coupled hydrologic and land use change models for decision making on land and water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalew, Seleshi; van der Zaag, Pieter; Mul, Marloes; Uhlenbrook, Stefan; Teferi, Ermias; van Griensven, Ann; van der Kwast, Johannes

2013-04-01

Hydrology of a basin, alongside climate change, is well documented to impact and to be impacted by land use/land cover change processes. The need to understand the impacts of hydrology on land use change and vice- versa cannot be overstated especially in basins such as the Upper Blue Nile in Ethiopia, where the vast majority of farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture. A slight fluctuation in rainy seasons or an increase or decrease in magnitude of precipitation can easily trigger drought or flooding. On the other hand, ever growing population and emerging economic development, among others, is likely to continually alter land use/land cover change, thereby affecting hydrological processes. With the intention of identifying and analyzing interactions and future scenarios of the hydrology and land use/land cover, we carried out a case study on a meso-scale catchment, in the Upper Blue Nile basin. A land use model using SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environments) was built for analyzing land use trends from aerial land cover photographs of 1957 and simulate until 2009 based on socio-economic as well as biophysical factors. Major land use drivers in the catchment were identified and used as input to the land use model. Separate land use maps were produced using Landsat images of 1972, 1986, 1994 and 2009 for historical calibration of the land use model. By the same token, a hydrological model for the same catchment was built using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. After calibration of the two independent models, they were loosely coupled for analyzing the changes in either of the models and impacts on the other. Among other details, the coupled model performed better in identifying limiting factors from both the hydrology as well as from the land use perspectives. For instance, the simulation of the uncoupled land use model alone (without inputs from SWAT on the water budget of each land use parcel) continually considered a land use type such as a wet land/marsh land, simply as a wetland until the simulation period finishes. The wetland or the marsh land, which is not crop friendly in the location, does not get allocated to any other land use such as for certain crop types or settlement, because the land use model cannot tell how much water is added to or drained from each parcel every season. However, the simulation feedback from the coupled hydrological model shows that certain wetland/marsh land parcels, in fact, hold less and less water or even dry up during the simulation period, thereby putting themselves as a good candidate to be picked by the land use model in a next time step and to be allocated to other land use types. The same way, a measure in the land use aspect, which considers socio-economic as well as biophysical driving forces of in the catchment, shows changes in runoff and sedimentation levels in SWAT model outputs. The results of a future scenario considering the continuing population growth projects that about 35% of the wetland dries up and gets converted to cultivation by 2020. This study emphasizes the importance of identifying possible impacts of the future hydrology on other components of the socio-environmental systems and contrariwise during environmental decision making, especially in areas where a relatively small change may have large impacts (such flood and/or drought prone basins as the Nile). The study also demonstrates a sound methodology for assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology and vice-versa by dynamically exchanging data through feedback mechanisms (coupling socio-environmental and hydrological models) which lead to a better understanding of socio-environmental problems. Keywords: Coupling, socio-environment, Nile, land use models, hydrological models

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-08-01

Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15%) with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled monthly soil moisture for the state of Illinois (US) agreed well (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.01) with observed data for the years 1984-2001. Overall, this study justifies both the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land covers into a DGVM and the reliability of LH to simulate land-surface water balances. To better estimate surface/river runoff at mid-to-high latitudes, we recommended that LPJ-DGVM considers the effects of solar radiation on snowmelt.

Development of Land Segmentation, Stream-Reach Network, and Watersheds in Support of Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) Modeling, Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and Adjacent Parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martucci, Sarah K.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Hopkins, Katherine J.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, Maryland Department of the Environment, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are collaborating on the Chesapeake Bay Regional Watershed Model, using Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN to simulate streamflow and concentrations and loads of nutrients and sediment to Chesapeake Bay. The model will be used to provide information for resource managers. In order to establish a framework for model simulation, digital spatial datasets were created defining the discretization of the model region (including the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as the adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia outside the watershed) into land segments, a stream-reach network, and associated watersheds. Land segmentation was based on county boundaries represented by a 1:100,000-scale digital dataset. Fifty of the 254 counties and incorporated cities in the model region were divided on the basis of physiography and topography, producing a total of 309 land segments. The stream-reach network for the Chesapeake Bay watershed part of the model region was based on the U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model stream-reach network. Because that network was created only for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the rest of the model region uses a 1:500,000-scale stream-reach network. Streams with mean annual streamflow of less than 100 cubic feet per second were excluded based on attributes from the dataset. Additional changes were made to enhance the data and to allow for inclusion of stream reaches with monitoring data that were not part of the original network. Thirty-meter-resolution Digital Elevation Model data were used to delineate watersheds for each stream reach. State watershed boundaries replaced the Digital Elevation Model-derived watersheds where coincident. After a number of corrections, the watersheds were coded to indicate major and minor basin, mean annual streamflow, and each watershed's unique identifier as well as that of the downstream watershed. Land segments and watersheds were intersected to create land-watershed segments for the model.

From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: exploring the progress for hydrological impact research for the upper Danube basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanzel, Philipp; Kling, Harald

2017-04-01

EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data are available as result of the latest initiative of the climate modelling community to provide ever improved simulations of past and future climate in Europe. The spatial resolution of the climate models increased from 25 x 25 km in the previous coordinated initiative, ENSEMBLES, to 12 x 12 km in the CORDEX EUR-11 simulations. This higher spatial resolution might yield improved representation of the historic climate, especially in complex mountainous terrain, improving applicability in impact studies. CORDEX scenario simulations are based on Representative Concentration Pathways, while ENSEMBLES applied the SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The new emission scenarios might lead to different projections of future climate. In this contribution we explore these two dimensions of development from ENSEMBLES to CORDEX - representation of the past and projections for the future - in the context of a hydrological climate change impact study for the Danube River. We replicated previous hydrological simulations that used ENSEMBLES data of 21 RCM simulations under SRES A1B emission scenario as meteorological input data (Kling et al. 2012), and now applied CORDEX EUR-11 data of 16 RCM simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate variables precipitation and temperature were used to drive a monthly hydrological model of the upper Danube basin upstream of Vienna (100,000 km2). RCM data was bias corrected and downscaled to the scale of hydrological model units. Results with CORDEX data were compared with results with ENSEMBLES data, analysing both the driving meteorological input and the resulting discharge projections. Results with CORDEX data show no general improvement in the accuracy of representing historic climatic features, despite the increase in spatial model resolution. The tendency of ENSEMBLES scenario projections of increasing precipitation in winter and decreasing precipitation in summer is reproduced with the CORDEX RCMs, albeit with slightly higher precipitation in the CORDEX data. The distinct pattern of future change in discharge seasonality - increasing winter discharge and decreasing summer discharge - is confirmed with the new CORDEX data, with a range of projections very similar to the range projected by the ENSEMBLES RCMs. References: Kling, H., Fuchs, M., Paulin, M. 2012. Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 424-425, 264-277.

Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajib, A.; Evenson, G. R.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. Accordingly, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate realistic ground conditions, particularly those involved with complex land-atmosphere feedbacks, vegetation growth, and energy balances. Uncertainty persists despite using high resolution topography and/or detailed land use data. Thus, a good hydrologic model can produce right answers for wrong reasons. In this study, we develop an efficient approach for multi-variable assimilation of remotely sensed earth observations (EOs) into a hydrologic model and apply it in the 1700 km2 Pipestem Creek watershed in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. Our goal is to employ EOs, specifically Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), as surrogates for the aforementioned processes without overruling the model's built-in physical/semi-empirical process conceptualizations. To do this, we modified the source code of an already-improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for wetland hydrology (Evenson et al. 2016 HP 30(22):4168) to directly assimilate remotely-sensed LAI and PET (obtained from the 500 m and 1 km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gridded products, respectively) into each model Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU). Two configurations of the model, one with and one without EO assimilation, are calibrated against streamflow observations at the watershed outlet. Spatio-temporal changes in the HRU-level water balance, based on calibrated outputs, are evaluated using MODIS Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) as a reference. It is expected that the model configuration having remotely sensed LAI and PET, will simulate more realistic land-atmosphere feedbacks, vegetation growth and energy balance. As a result, this will decrease simulated water balance uncertainties compared to the default model configuration.

Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

PubMed

Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-11-15

Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward Improved Parameterization of a Meso-Scale Hydrologic Model in a Discontinuous Permafrost, Boreal Forest Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2013-12-01

The sub-arctic environment can be characterized as being located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost is site specific, it dominates many of the hydrologic and ecologic responses and functions including vegetation distribution, stream flow, soil moisture, and storage processes. In this region, the boundaries that separate the major ecosystem types (deciduous dominated and coniferous dominated ecosystems) as well as permafrost (permafrost verses non-permafrost) occur over very short spatial scales. One of the goals of this research project is to improve parameterizations of meso-scale hydrologic models in this environment. Using the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed (CPCRW) as the test area, simulations of the headwater catchments of varying permafrost and vegetation distributions were performed. CPCRW, located approximately 50 km northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska, is located within the zone of discontinuous permafrost and the boreal forest ecosystem. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was selected as the hydrologic model. In CPCRW, permafrost and coniferous vegetation is generally found on north facing slopes and valley bottoms. Permafrost free soils and deciduous vegetation is generally found on south facing slopes. In this study, hydrologic simulations using fine scale vegetation and soil parameterizations - based upon slope and aspect analysis at a 50 meter resolution - were conducted. Simulations were also conducted using downscaled vegetation from the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) (1 km resolution) and soil data sets from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (approximately 9 km resolution). Preliminary simulation results show that soil and vegetation parameterizations based upon fine scale slope/aspect analysis increases the R2 values (0.5 to 0.65 in the high permafrost (53%) basin; 0.43 to 0.56 in the low permafrost (2%) basin) relative to parameterization based on coarse scale data. These results suggest that using fine resolution parameterizations can be used to improve meso-scale hydrological modeling in this region.

GLOBE Hydrology Workshop SEIP program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

Matt Krigbaum (left), a teacher at Mitchell Elementary in Ann Arbor, Mich., pours water from the Pearl River into a turbidity tube to measure the river's light penetration. Krigbaum, along with Lois Williams, principal at Elizabeth Courville Elementary in Detroit, Mich.; and Carolyn Martin and Arlene Wittmer, teachers at Elizabeth Courville Elementary; conducted the experiment during a GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) hydrology workshop. GLOBE is a worldwide, hands-on science education program in which teachers can become certified to implement the program at their schools after taking hydrology, land cover/biology, atmosphere/climate and soil protocol workshops. Twelve teachers from across the country attended the recent weeklong GLOBE training at SSC, offered through its Educator Resource Center and the NASA Explorer Schools program. All workshops are free and offer continuing education units.

GLOBE Hydrology Workshop SEIP program

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-06-30

Matt Krigbaum (left), a teacher at Mitchell Elementary in Ann Arbor, Mich., pours water from the Pearl River into a turbidity tube to measure the river's light penetration. Krigbaum, along with Lois Williams, principal at Elizabeth Courville Elementary in Detroit, Mich.; and Carolyn Martin and Arlene Wittmer, teachers at Elizabeth Courville Elementary; conducted the experiment during a GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) hydrology workshop. GLOBE is a worldwide, hands-on science education program in which teachers can become certified to implement the program at their schools after taking hydrology, land cover/biology, atmosphere/climate and soil protocol workshops. Twelve teachers from across the country attended the recent weeklong GLOBE training at SSC, offered through its Educator Resource Center and the NASA Explorer Schools program. All workshops are free and offer continuing education units.

Groundwater flow and solute transport modelling from within R: Development of the RMODFLOW and RMT3DMS packages.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogiers, Bart

2015-04-01

Since a few years, an increasing number of contributed R packages is becoming available, in the field of hydrology. Hydrological time series analysis packages, lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, weather generators, and different calibration and uncertainty estimation methods are all available. Also a few packages are available for solving partial differential equations. Subsurface hydrological modelling is however still seldomly performed in R, or with codes interfaced with R, despite the fact that excellent geostatistical packages, model calibration/inversion options and state-of-the-art visualization libraries are available. Moreover, other popular scientific programming languages like matlab and python have packages for pre- and post-processing files of MODFLOW (Harbaugh 2005) and MT3DMS (Zheng 2010) models. To fill this gap, we present here the development versions of the RMODFLOW and RMT3DMS packages, which allow pre- and post-processing MODFLOW and MT3DMS input and output files from within R. File reading and writing functions are currently available for different packages, and plotting functions are foreseen making use of the ggplot2 package (plotting system based on the grammar of graphics; Wickham 2009). The S3 generic-function object oriented programming style is used for this. An example is provided, making modifications to an existing model, and visualization of the model output. References Harbaugh, A. (2005). MODFLOW-2005: The US Geological Survey Modular Ground-water Model--the Ground-water Flow Process, U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6-A16 (p. 253). Wickham, H. (2009). ggplot2: elegant graphics for data analysis. Springer New York, 2009. Zheng, C. (2010). MT3DMS v5.3, a modular three-dimensional multispecies transport model for simulation of advection, dispersion and chemical reactions of contaminants in groundwater systems. Supplemental User's Guide. (p. 56).

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.

Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

2015-01-01

Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E.; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

2015-04-01

Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinzman, Larry D.; Bolton, William Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica

This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating thatmore » assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.« less

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

An eco-hydrological modeling framework for assessing trade-offs among ecosystem services in response to alternative land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mckane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Brookes, A.; Djang, K.; Stieglitz, M.; Pan, F.; Bolte, J.; Papenfus, M.; Burdick, C.

2012-12-01

Scientists, policymakers, community planners and others have discussed ecosystem services for decades, however, society is still in the early stages of developing methodologies to quantify and value the services that ecosystems provide. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program to develop such methodologies, so that natural capital can be better accounted for in decisions that affect the supply of the ecosystem goods and services upon which human well-being depends. Essential to this goal are highly integrated models that can be used to define policy and management strategies for entire ecosystems, not simply individual components of the ecosystem. We developed the VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments) eco-hydrologic modeling framework to help address this emerging risk assessment objective. Here we describe a proof-of-concept application of VELMA to the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, a forested 64 km2 basin and Long Term Ecological Research site in the western Cascade Range of Oregon, USA. VELMA is a spatially-distributed eco-hydrologic model that links a land surface hydrologic model with a terrestrial biogeochemistry model for simulating the integrated responses of vegetation, soil, and water resources to interacting stressors. We used the model to simulate the effects of three different land use scenarios (100% old-growth, 100% clearcut harvest, and present-day land cover consisting of 45% old-growth and 55% harvested) on trade-offs among five ecosystem services: timber production, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas regulation, water quantity, and water quality. Compared to the old-growth simulation, over a 60-yr period the clearcut simulation reduced total ecosystem carbon stocks (-40%), and initially increased total stream discharge (+28%), stream nitrogen export (>300%), and total CO2 and N2O radiative forcing (>200%). The simulation for present-day land cover resulted in intermediate values, albeit substantially closer to old growth than to clearcut values. Ongoing work is focused on incorporating VELMA within a flexible decision support platform (Envision) that integrates a wide variety of models, decision tools, and datasets for evaluating economic, social and environmental trade-offs associated with alternative decision scenarios. This framework will be used to address questions about the sustainability of natural capital vital to local and regional economies, initially in the PNW and Great Plains. For example, can those factors that have the greatest potential to improve future trajectories of ecosystem services and human well-being be identified? What green and grey infrastructure improvements, carbon and nitrogen management practices, and growth and development policies can most effectively be managed to attain a sustainable and desirable future?

Post-processing of multi-hydrologic model simulations for improved streamflow projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

khajehei, sepideh; Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Hydrologic model outputs are prone to bias and uncertainty due to knowledge deficiency in model and data. Uncertainty in hydroclimatic projections arises due to uncertainty in hydrologic model as well as the epistemic or aleatory uncertainties in GCM parameterization and development. This study is conducted to: 1) evaluate the recently developed multi-variate post-processing method for historical simulations and 2) assess the effect of post-processing on uncertainty and reliability of future streamflow projections in both high-flow and low-flow conditions. The first objective is performed for historical period of 1970-1999. Future streamflow projections are generated for 10 statistically downscaled GCMs from two widely used downscaling methods: Bias Corrected Statistically Downscaled (BCSD) and Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), over the period of 2010-2099 for two representative concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Three semi-distributed hydrologic models were employed and calibrated at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution for over 100 points across the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the pacific northwest USA. Streamflow outputs are post-processed through a Bayesian framework based on copula functions. The post-processing approach is relying on a transfer function developed based on bivariate joint distribution between the observation and simulation in historical period. Results show that application of post-processing technique leads to considerably higher accuracy in historical simulations and also reducing model uncertainty in future streamflow projections.

Linking Statistically- and Physically-Based Models for Improved Streamflow Simulation in Gaged and Ungaged Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Archfield, S. A.; Farmer, W. H.; Kiang, J. E.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the continental US. The portion of the NHM located within the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) is being used to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations in gaged and ungaged watersheds by linking statistically- and physically-based hydrologic models. The GCPO LCC covers part or all of 12 states and 5 sub-geographies, totaling approximately 726,000 km2, and is centered on the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley. A total of 346 USGS streamgages in the GCPO LCC region were selected to evaluate the performance of this new calibration methodology for the period 1980 to 2013. Initially, the physically-based models are calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison. An enhanced calibration procedure then is used to calibrate the physically-based models in the gaged and ungaged areas of the GCPO LCC using statistically-based estimates of streamflow. For this application, the calibration procedure is adjusted to address the limitations of the statistically generated time series to reproduce measured streamflow in gaged basins, primarily by incorporating error and bias estimates. As part of this effort, estimates of uncertainty in the model simulations are also computed for the gaged and ungaged watersheds.

Large ensemble and large-domain hydrologic modeling: Insights from SUMMA applications in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, G.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Clark, M. P.

2016-12-01

The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) provides a unifying modeling framework for process-based hydrologic modeling by defining a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy, with the capability to incorporate multiple choices for spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. In this study, we provide a first demonstration of large-scale hydrologic simulations using SUMMA through an application to the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the northwestern United States and Canada for a multi-decadal simulation period. The CRB is discretized into 11,723 hydrologic response units (HRUs) according to the United States Geologic Service Geospatial Fabric. The soil parameters are derived from the Natural Resources Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database. The land cover parameters are based on the National Land Cover Database from the year 2001 created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. The forcing data, including hourly air pressure, temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, shortwave and longwave radiations, are based on Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and averaged for each HRU. The simulation results are compared to simulations with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). We are particularly interested in SUMMA's capability to mimic model behaviors of the other two models through the selection of appropriate model parameterizations in SUMMA.

Hydrology and Mosquito Population Dynamics around a Hydropower Reservoir in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A.

2013-12-01

Malaria is associated with dams because their reservoirs provide mosquitoes, the vector of malaria, with permanent breeding sites. The risk of contracting malaria is likely to be enhanced following the increasing trend of hydropower dam construction to satisfy the expanding energy needs in developing countries. A close examination of its adverse health impacts is critical in the design, construction, and operation phases. We will present results of extensive field studies in 2012 and 2013 around the Koka Reservoir, Ethiopia. The results uncover the importance of reservoir management especially after the rainy seasons. Furthermore, we show the capability of a newly modified hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al, 2008), and its potential as a tool for evaluating environmental management strategies to control malaria. HYDREMATS was developed to represent how the hydrology in nearby villages is impacted by the reservoir system, and the role of different types of vector ecologies associated with different Anopheles mosquito species. The hydrology component of HYDREMATS simulates three different mosquito breeding habitats: rain-fed pools, groundwater pools, and shoreline water. The entomology component simulates the life cycles of An. funestus and An. arabiensis, the two main vectors around the reservoir. The model was calibrated over the 2012-2013 period. The impact of reservoir water level management on the mosquito population is explored based on numerical model simulations and field experiments.

A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

2013-12-01

The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web server-based system. Open source web technologies and community-based tools are used to facilitate wide dissemination and adaptation by diverse, independent institutions. The new hydrologic learning modules are based on recent developments in hydrologic modeling, data, and resources. The modules are embedded in three regional-scale ecosystems, Coastal Louisiana, Florida Everglades, and Utah Great Salt Lake Basin. These sites provide a wealth of hydrologic concepts and scenarios that can be used in most water resource and hydrology curricula. The study develops several learning modules based on the three hydro-systems covering subjects such as: water-budget analysis, effects of human and natural changes, climate-hydrology teleconnections, and water-resource management scenarios. The new developments include an instructional interface to give critical guidance and support to the learner and an instructor's guide containing adaptation and implementation procedures to assist instructors in adopting and integrating the material into courses and provide a consistent experience. The design of the new hydrologic education developments will be transferable to independent institutions and adaptable both instructionally and technically through a server system capable of supporting additional developments by the educational community.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

2016-04-01

Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

Robustness and Uncertainty: Applications for Policy in Climate and Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fields, A. L., III

2015-12-01

Policymakers must often decide how to proceed when presented with conflicting simulation data from hydrological, climatological, and geological models. While laboratory sciences often appeal to the reproducibility of results to argue for the validity of their conclusions, simulations cannot use this strategy for a number of pragmatic and methodological reasons. However, robustness of predictions and causal structures can serve the same function for simulations as reproducibility does for laboratory experiments and field observations in either adjudicating between conflicting results or showing that there is insufficient justification to externally validate the results. Additionally, an interpretation of the argument from robustness is presented that involves appealing to the convergence of many well-built and diverse models rather than the more common version which involves appealing to the probability that one of a set of models is likely to be true. This interpretation strengthens the case for taking robustness as an additional requirement for the validation of simulation results and ultimately supports the idea that computer simulations can provide information about the world that is just as trustworthy as data from more traditional laboratory studies and field observations. Understanding the importance of robust results for the validation of simulation data is especially important for policymakers making decisions on the basis of potentially conflicting models. Applications will span climate, hydrological, and hydroclimatological models.

DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated modeling of hydrology, soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and plant growth for drained forests

Treesearch

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya; G.M. Chescheir

2012-01-01

We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model,...

Blizzards to hurricanes: computer modeling of hydrology, weathering, and isotopic fractionation across hydroclimatic regions

Treesearch

Richard MT Webb; David L. Parkhurst

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) was used to simulate hydrology, weathering, and isotopic fractionation in the Andrews Creek watershed in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado and the Icacos River watershed in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. WEBMOD includes hydrologic modules derived from the USGS...

Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

Treesearch

Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

2006-01-01

A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

Scaling, Similarity, and the Fourth Paradigm for Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; van Emmerik, Tim; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Achieng, Kevin; Franz, Trenton E.; Woods, Ross

2017-01-01

In this synthesis paper addressing hydrologic scaling and similarity, we posit that roadblocks in the search for universal laws of hydrology are hindered by our focus on computational simulation (the third paradigm), and assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modelling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological scaling and similarity hypotheses. We summarize important scaling and similarity concepts (hypotheses) that require testing, describe a mutual information framework for testing these hypotheses, describe boundary condition, state flux, and parameter data requirements across scales to support testing these hypotheses, and discuss some challenges to overcome while pursuing the fourth hydrological paradigm. We call upon the hydrologic sciences community to develop a focused effort towards adopting the fourth paradigm and apply this to outstanding challenges in scaling and similarity.

Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

2016-04-01

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample from the full range of uncertainties associated with all parts of the simulation chain, from global climate models with simulations of natural climate variability, through regional climate downscaling, and on to modeling of affected hydrologic processes and downstream water resources impacts. This talk will present part of the work underway now both to reveal and reduce some important uncertainties and to develop explicit guidance for future generation of quantitative hydroclimatic storylines. Topics will include: 1- model structural and parameter-set limitations of some methods widely used to quantify climate impacts to hydrologic processes [Gutmann et al., 2014; Newman et al., 2015]; 2- development and evaluation of new, spatially consistent, U.S. national-scale climate downscaling and hydrologic simulation capabilities directly relevant at the multiple scales of water-resource decision-making [Newman et al., 2015; Mizukami et al., 2015; Gutmann et al., 2016]; and 3- development and evaluation of advanced streamflow forecasting methods to reduce and represent integrated uncertainties in a tractable way [Wood et al., 2014; Wood et al., 2015]. A key focus will be areas where climatologic and hydrologic science is currently under-developed to inform decisions - or is perhaps wrongly scaled or misapplied in practice - indicating the need for additional fundamental science and interpretation.

A new fit-for-purpose model testing framework: Decision Crash Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James

2016-04-01

Decision-makers in water resources are often burdened with selecting appropriate multi-million dollar strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate or land use change. Unfortunately, the suitability of existing hydrologic simulation models to accurately inform decision-making is in doubt because the testing procedures used to evaluate model utility (i.e., model validation) are insufficient. For example, many authors have identified that a good standard framework for model testing called the Klemes Crash Tests (KCTs), which are the classic model validation procedures from Klemeš (1986) that Andréassian et al. (2009) rename as KCTs, have yet to become common practice in hydrology. Furthermore, Andréassian et al. (2009) claim that the progression of hydrological science requires widespread use of KCT and the development of new crash tests. Existing simulation (not forecasting) model testing procedures such as KCTs look backwards (checking for consistency between simulations and past observations) rather than forwards (explicitly assessing if the model is likely to support future decisions). We propose a fundamentally different, forward-looking, decision-oriented hydrologic model testing framework based upon the concept of fit-for-purpose model testing that we call Decision Crash Tests or DCTs. Key DCT elements are i) the model purpose (i.e., decision the model is meant to support) must be identified so that model outputs can be mapped to management decisions ii) the framework evaluates not just the selected hydrologic model but the entire suite of model-building decisions associated with model discretization, calibration etc. The framework is constructed to directly and quantitatively evaluate model suitability. The DCT framework is applied to a model building case study on the Grand River in Ontario, Canada. A hypothetical binary decision scenario is analysed (upgrade or not upgrade the existing flood control structure) under two different sets of model building decisions. In one case, we show the set of model building decisions has a low probability to correctly support the upgrade decision. In the other case, we show evidence suggesting another set of model building decisions has a high probability to correctly support the decision. The proposed DCT framework focuses on what model users typically care about: the management decision in question. The DCT framework will often be very strict and will produce easy to interpret results enabling clear unsuitability determinations. In the past, hydrologic modelling progress has necessarily meant new models and model building methods. Continued progress in hydrologic modelling requires finding clear evidence to motivate researchers to disregard unproductive models and methods and the DCT framework is built to produce this kind of evidence. References: Andréassian, V., C. Perrin, L. Berthet, N. Le Moine, J. Lerat, C. Loumagne, L. Oudin, T. Mathevet, M.-H. Ramos, and A. Valéry (2009), Crash tests for a standardized evaluation of hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 1757-1764. Klemeš, V. (1986), Operational testing of hydrological simulation models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 31 (1), 13-24.

Role of a cumulus parameterization scheme in simulating atmospheric circulation and rainfall in the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Chao, Winston C.; Walker, G. K.

1992-01-01

The influence of a cumulus convection scheme on the simulated atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle is investigated by means of a coarse version of the GCM. Two sets of integrations, each containing an ensemble of three summer simulations, were produced. The ensemble sets of control and experiment simulations are compared and differentially analyzed to determine the influence of a cumulus convection scheme on the simulated circulation and hydrologic cycle. The results show that cumulus parameterization has a very significant influence on the simulation circulation and precipitation. The upper-level condensation heating over the ITCZ is much smaller for the experiment simulations as compared to the control simulations; correspondingly, the Hadley and Walker cells for the control simulations are also weaker and are accompanied by a weaker Ferrel cell in the Southern Hemisphere. Overall, the difference fields show that experiment simulations (without cumulus convection) produce a cooler and less energetic atmosphere.

Simulation of semi-arid hydrological processes at different spatial resolutions using the AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, T. R.; Erksine, R. H.; David, O.; Ascough, J. C., II; Kipka, H.; Lloyd, W. J.; McMaster, G. S.

2015-12-01

Water movement and storage within a watershed may be simulated at different spatial resolutions of land areas or hydrological response units (HRUs). Here, effects of HRU size on simulated soil water and surface runoff are tested using the AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W) model with three different resolutions of HRUs. We studied a 56-ha agricultural watershed in northern Colorado, USA farmed primarily under a wheat-fallow rotation. The delineation algorithm was based upon topography (surface flow paths), land use (crop management strips and native grass), and mapped soil units (three types), which produced HRUs that follow the land use and soil boundaries. AgES-W model parameters that control surface and subsurface hydrology were calibrated using simulated daily soil moisture at different landscape positions and depths where soil moisture was measured hourly and averaged up to daily values. Parameter sets were both uniform and spatially variable with depth and across the watershed (5 different calibration approaches). Although forward simulations were computationally efficient (less than 1 minute each), each calibration required thousands of model runs. Execution of such large jobs was facilitated by using the Object Modeling System with the Cloud Services Innovation Platform to manage four virtual machines on a commercial web service configured with a total of 64 computational cores and 120 GB of memory. Results show how spatially distributed and averaged soil moisture and runoff at the outlet vary with different HRU delineations. The results will help guide HRU delineation, spatial resolution and parameter estimation methods for improved hydrological simulations in this and other semi-arid agricultural watersheds.

Intercomparison of Streamflow Simulations between WRF-Hydro and Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model Frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.; Salas, F.; Cui, Z.; Johnson, D.

2017-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Weather Service (NWS) developed the Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) framework as an initial step towards spatially distributed modeling at River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Recently, the NOAA/NWS worked with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to implement the National Water Model (NWM) for nationally-consistent water resources prediction. The NWM is based on the WRF-Hydro framework and is run at a 1km spatial resolution and 1-hour time step over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and contributing areas in Canada and Mexico. In this study, we compare streamflow simulations from HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro to observations from 279 USGS stations. For streamflow simulations, HL-RDHM is run on 4km grids with the temporal resolution of 1 hour for a 5-year period (Water Years 2008-2012), using a priori parameters provided by NOAA-NWS. The WRF-Hydro streamflow simulations for the same time period are extracted from NCAR's 23 retrospective run of the NWM (version 1.0) over CONUS based on 1km grids. We choose 279 USGS stations which are relatively less affected by dams or reservoirs, in the domains of six different RFCs. We use the daily average values of simulations and observations for the convenience of comparison. The main purpose of this research is to evaluate how HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro perform at USGS gauge stations. We compare daily time-series of observations and both simulations, and calculate the error values using a variety of error functions. Using these plots and error values, we evaluate the performances of HL-RDHM and WRF-Hydro models. Our results show a mix of model performance across geographic regions.

Modeling Methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, Richard W.; Scanlon, Bridget R.

2010-01-01

Simulation models are widely used in all types of hydrologic studies, and many of these models can be used to estimate recharge. Models can provide important insight into the functioning of hydrologic systems by identifying factors that influence recharge. The predictive capability of models can be used to evaluate how changes in climate, water use, land use, and other factors may affect recharge rates. Most hydrological simulation models, including watershed models and groundwater-flow models, are based on some form of water-budget equation, so the material in this chapter is closely linked to that in Chapter 2. Empirical models that are not based on a water-budget equation have also been used for estimating recharge; these models generally take the form of simple estimation equations that define annual recharge as a function of precipitation and possibly other climatic data or watershed characteristics.Model complexity varies greatly. Some models are simple accounting models; others attempt to accurately represent the physics of water movement through each compartment of the hydrologic system. Some models provide estimates of recharge explicitly; for example, a model based on the Richards equation can simulate water movement from the soil surface through the unsaturated zone to the water table. Recharge estimates can be obtained indirectly from other models. For example, recharge is a parameter in groundwater-flow models that solve for hydraulic head (i.e. groundwater level). Recharge estimates can be obtained through a model calibration process in which recharge and other model parameter values are adjusted so that simulated water levels agree with measured water levels. The simulation that provides the closest agreement is called the best fit, and the recharge value used in that simulation is the model-generated estimate of recharge.

Simulation and analysis of conjunctive use with MODFLOW's farm process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Schmid, W.; Faunt, C.C.; Lockwood, B.

2010-01-01

The extension of MODFLOW onto the landscape with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates fully coupled simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow and runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. This allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within " water-balance subregions" comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Simulation of micro-agriculture in the Pajaro Valley and macro-agriculture in the Central Valley are used to demonstrate the utility of MF-FMP. For Pajaro Valley, the simulation of an aquifer storage and recovery system and related coastal water distribution system to supplant coastal pumpage was analyzed subject to climate variations and additional supplemental sources such as local runoff. For the Central Valley, analysis of conjunctive use from different hydrologic settings of northern and southern subregions shows how and when precipitation, surface water, and groundwater are important to conjunctive use. The examples show that through MF-FMP's ability to simulate natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrologic cycle, the distribution and dynamics of supply and demand can be analyzed, understood, and managed. This analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding them in the simulation and are difficult to estimate a priori. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association. No claim to original US government works.

Modeling hydrological controls on variations in peat water content, water table depth, and surface energy exchange of a boreal western Canadian fen peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezbahuddin, M.; Grant, R. F.; Flanagan, L. B.

2016-08-01

Improved predictive capacity of hydrology and surface energy exchange is critical for conserving boreal peatland carbon sequestration under drier and warmer climates. We represented basic processes for water and O2 transport and their effects on ecosystem water, energy, carbon, and nutrient cycling in a process-based model ecosys to simulate effects of seasonal and interannual variations in hydrology on peat water content, water table depth (WTD), and surface energy exchange of a Western Canadian fen peatland. Substituting a van Genuchten model (VGM) for a modified Campbell model (MCM) in ecosys enabled a significantly better simulation of peat moisture retention as indicated by higher modeled versus measured R2 and Willmot's index (d) with VGM (R2 0.7, d 0.8) than with MCM (R2 0.25, d 0.35) for daily peat water contents from a wetter year 2004 to a drier year 2009. With the improved peat moisture simulation, ecosys modeled hourly WTD and energy fluxes reasonably well (modeled versus measured R2: WTD 0.6, net radiation 0.99, sensible heat >0.8, and latent heat >0.85). Gradually declining ratios of precipitation to evapotranspiration and of lateral recharge to discharge enabled simulation of a gradual drawdown of growing season WTD and a consequent peat drying from 2004 to 2009. When WTD fell below a threshold of 0.35 m below the hollow surface, intense drying of mosses in ecosys caused a simulated reduction in evapotranspiration and an increase in Bowen ratio during late growing season that were consistent with measurements. Hence, using appropriate water desorption curve coupled with vertical-lateral hydraulic schemes is vital to accurately simulate peatland hydrology and energy balance.

Coupling a distributed hydrological model with detailed forest structural information for large-scale global change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Majasalmi, Titta; Bright, Ryan; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Forests are recognized for their decisive effect on landscape water balance with structural forest characteristics as stand density or species composition determining energy partitioning and dominant flow paths. However, spatial and temporal variability in forest structure is often poorly represented in hydrological modeling frameworks, in particular in regional to large scale hydrological modeling and impact analysis. As a common practice, prescribed land cover classes (including different generic forest types) are linked to parameter values derived from literature, or parameters are determined by calibration. While national forest inventory (NFI) data provide comprehensive, detailed information on hydrologically relevant forest characteristics, their potential to inform hydrological simulation over larger spatial domains is rarely exploited. In this study we present a modeling framework that couples the distributed hydrological model HBV with forest structural information derived from the Norwegian NFI and multi-source remote sensing data. The modeling framework, set up for the entire of continental Norway at 1 km spatial resolution, is explicitly designed to study the combined and isolated impacts of climate change, forest management and land use change on hydrological fluxes. We use a forest classification system based on forest structure rather than biomes which allows to implicitly account for impacts of forest management on forest structural attributes. In the hydrological model, different forest classes are represented by three parameters: leaf area index (LAI), mean tree height and surface albedo. Seasonal cycles of LAI and surface albedo are dynamically simulated to make the framework applicable under climate change conditions. Based on a hindcast for the pilot regions Nord-Trøndelag and Sør-Trøndelag, we show how forest management has affected regional hydrological fluxes during the second half of the 20th century as contrasted to climate variability.

The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model - The next generation in fully integrated hydrologic simulation software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyce, S. E.; Hanson, R. T.

2015-12-01

The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. MF-OWHM fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by agriculture and natural vegetation on the landscape, and for potable and other uses within a supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 combined with Local Grid Refinement, Streamflow Routing, Surface-water Routing Process, Seawater Intrusion, Riparian Evapotranspiration, and the Newton-Raphson solver. MF-OWHM also includes linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows; additional observation and parameter options for higher-order calibrations; and redesigned code for facilitation of self-updating models and faster simulation run times. The next version of MF-OWHM, currently under development, will include a new surface-water operations module that simulates dynamic reservoir operations, the conduit flow process for karst aquifers and leaky pipe networks, a new subsidence and aquifer compaction package, and additional features and enhancements to enable more integration and cross communication between traditional MODFLOW packages. By retaining and tracking the water within the hydrosphere, MF-OWHM accounts for "all of the water everywhere and all of the time." This philosophy provides more confidence in the water accounting by the scientific community and provides the public a foundation needed to address wider classes of problems such as evaluation of conjunctive-use alternatives and sustainability analysis, including potential adaptation and mitigation strategies, and best management practices. By Scott E. Boyce and Randall T. Hanson

Coupled hydro-meteorological modelling on a HPC platform for high-resolution extreme weather impact study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Dehua; Echendu, Shirley; Xuan, Yunqing; Webster, Mike; Cluckie, Ian

2016-11-01

Impact-focused studies of extreme weather require coupling of accurate simulations of weather and climate systems and impact-measuring hydrological models which themselves demand larger computer resources. In this paper, we present a preliminary analysis of a high-performance computing (HPC)-based hydrological modelling approach, which is aimed at utilizing and maximizing HPC power resources, to support the study on extreme weather impact due to climate change. Here, four case studies are presented through implementation on the HPC Wales platform of the UK mesoscale meteorological Unified Model (UM) with high-resolution simulation suite UKV, alongside a Linux-based hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). The results of this study suggest that the coupled hydro-meteorological model was still able to capture the major flood peaks, compared with the conventional gauge- or radar-driving forecast, but with the added value of much extended forecast lead time. The high-resolution rainfall estimation produced by the UKV performs similarly to that of radar rainfall products in the first 2-3 days of tested flood events, but the uncertainties particularly increased as the forecast horizon goes beyond 3 days. This study takes a step forward to identify how the online mode approach can be used, where both numerical weather prediction and the hydrological model are executed, either simultaneously or on the same hardware infrastructures, so that more effective interaction and communication can be achieved and maintained between the models. But the concluding comments are that running the entire system on a reasonably powerful HPC platform does not yet allow for real-time simulations, even without the most complex and demanding data simulation part.

Step wise, multiple objective calibration of a hydrologic model for a snowmelt dominated basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Umemoto, M.

2006-01-01

The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated, consistently with measured values.

The role of multispectral scanners as data sources for EPA hydrologic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slack, R.; Hill, D.

1982-01-01

An estimated cost savings of 30% to 50% was realized from using LANDSAT-derived data as input into a program which simulates hydrologic and water quality processes in natural and man-made water systems. Data from the satellite were used in conjunction with EPA's 11-channel multispectral scanner to obtain maps for characterizing the distribution of turbidity plumes in Flathead Lake and to predict the effect of increasing urbanization in Montana's Flathead River Basin on the lake's trophic state. Multispectral data are also being studied as a possible source of the parameters needed to model the buffering capability of lakes in an effort to evaluate the effect of acid rain in the Adirondacks. Water quality in Lake Champlain, Vermont is being classified using data from the LANDSAT and the EPA MSS. Both contact-sensed and MSS data are being used with multivariate statistical analysis to classify the trophic status of 145 lakes in Illinois and to identify water sampling sites in Appalachicola Bay where contaminants threaten Florida's shellfish.

Hydrologic and Water-Quality Characterization and Modeling of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Reddy, James E.

2008-01-01

Onondaga Lake in Onondaga County, New York, has been identified as one of the Nation?s most contaminated lakes as a result of industrial and sanitary-sewer discharges and stormwater nonpoint sources, and has received priority cleanup status under the national Water Resources Development Act of 1990. A basin-scale precipitation-runoff model of the Onondaga Lake basin was identified as a desirable water-resources management tool to better understand the processes responsible for the generation of loads of sediment and nutrients that are transported to Onondaga Lake. During 2003?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model based on the computer program, Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF), which simulated overland flow to, and streamflow in, the major tributaries of Onondaga Lake, and loads of sediment, phosphorus, and nitrogen transported to the lake. The simulation period extends from October 1997 through September 2003. The Onondaga Lake basin was divided into 107 subbasins and within these subbasins, the land area was apportioned among 19 pervious and impervious land types on the basis of land use and land cover, hydrologic soil group (HSG), and aspect. Precipitation data were available from three sources as input to the model. The model simulated streamflow, water temperature, concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and concentrations and loads of sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, nitrate, ammonia, and organic nitrogen in the four major tributaries to Onondaga Lake?Onondaga Creek, Harbor Brook, Ley Creek, and Ninemile Creek. Simulated flows were calibrated to data from nine USGS streamflow-monitoring sites; simulated nutrient concentrations and loads were calibrated to data collected at six of the nine streamflow-monitoring sites. Water-quality samples were collected, processed, and analyzed by personnel from the Onondaga County Department of Water Environment Protection. Several time series of flow, and sediment and nutrient loads were generated for known sources of these constituents, including the Tully Valley mudboils (flow and sediment), Otisco Lake (flow and nutrients), the Marcellus wastewater-treatment plant (flow and nutrients), and springs from carbonate bedrock (flow). Runoff from the impervious sewered areas of the City of Syracuse was adjusted for the quantity that was treatable at the county wastewater-treatment plant; the excess flows were routed to nearby streams through combined-sanitary-and-storm-sewer overflows. The mitigative effects that the Onondaga Reservoir and Otisco Lake were presumed to have on loads of sediment and particulate constituents were simulated by adjustment of parameter values that controlled sediment settling rates, deposition, and scour in the reservoir and lake. Graphical representations of observed and simulated data, and relevant statistics, were compared to assess model performance. Simulated daily and monthly streamflows were rated ?very good? (within 10 percent of observed flows) at all calibration sites, except Onondaga Creek at Cardiff, which was rated ?fair? (10?15 percent difference). Simulations of monthly average water temperatures were rated ?very good? (within 7 percent of observed temperatures) at all sites. No observed data were available by which to directly assess the model?s simulation of suspended sediment loads. Available measured total suspended solids data provided an indirect means of comparison but, not surprisingly, yielded only ?fair? to ?poor? ratings (greater than 30 percent difference) for simulated monthly sediment loads at half the water-quality calibration sites. Simulations of monthly orthophosphate loads ranged from ?very good? (within 15 percent of measured loads) at three sites to ?poor? (greater than 35 percent difference) at one site; simulations of ammonia nitrogen loads ranged from ?very good? at one site to ?fair? (25?35 percent difference) at two sites. Simulations of monthly total phosphorus, nitrate, and or

A precipitation-runoff model for part of the Ninemile Creek Watershed near Camillus, Onondaga County, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

1999-01-01

A precipitation-runoff model, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran), of a 41.7 square mile part of the Ninemile Creek watershed near Camillus, in central New York, was developed and calibrated to predict the hydrological effects of future suburban development on streamflow, and the effects of stormwater detention on flooding of Ninemile Creek at Camillus. Development was represented in the model in two ways: (1) as a pervious area (open and residential land) that simulates the hydrologic response from mixed pervious and impervious areas that drain to pervious areas, or (2) as an impervious area that drains to channels. Simulations indicate that peak discharges for 30 non-winter storms in 1995-96 would increase by an average of 10 to 37 percent in response to a 10- to 100-percent buildup of developable land represented as open/residential land and by 40 to 68 percent in response to 10 to 100 percent buildup of developable area represented as impervious area. A 10 to 100 percent buildup of developable area represents an impervious area of about 1 to 7 percent of the watershed. A log Pearson Type-III analysis of peak annual discharge for October 1989 through September 1996 for simulations with full development represented as impervious area indicates that stormflows that formerly occurred once every 2 years on average will occur once every 1.5 years, and stormflows that formerly occurred once every 5 years will occur once every 3.3 years.Simulations of a hypothetical 147-acre residential development in the lower part of the watershed with and without stormwater detention indicate that detention basins could cause either increase or decrease downstream flooding of Ninemile Creek at Camillus, depending on the basin.s available storage relative to its inflows and, hence, the timing of its peak outflow in relation to that of the peak discharge in Ninemile Creek; and the degree of flow retention by wetlands and other channel storage that affect the timing of peak discharges. Design and management of detention basins in the watershed will require analysis of each basin.s hydraulic characteristics and location relative to Ninemile Creek to predict their effect on downstream flooding. The runoff model described herein can be used to evaluate alternative detention basin designs and locations.

Multimodel Uncertainty Changes in Simulated River Flows Induced by Human Impact Parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Cui, Huijuan; Mu, Mengfei; Gerten Dieter; Gosling, Simon; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-01-01

Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971-2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2 for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20 to 5, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20 to 20. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment.

Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

2015-12-01

The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 indicate decreases in projected discharge and extent of inundated area on the mainstem Amazon by the late 21st century owing to influences of future climate change only.

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Markstrom, Steve L.; Regan, R. Steve; Elliott, Caroline M.; Jones, John W.

2013-01-01

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.

2007-01-01

A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model of the Blackstone River Basin was developed and calibrated to study the effects of changing land- and water-use patterns on water resources. The 474.5 mi2 Blackstone River Basin in southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is experiencing rapid population and commercial growth throughout much of its area. This growth and the corresponding changes in land-use patterns are increasing stress on water resources and raising concerns about the future availability of water to meet residential and commercial needs. Increased withdrawals and wastewater-return flows also could adversely affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and the recreational value of the streams in the basin. The Blackstone River Basin was represented by 19 hydrologic response units (HRUs): 17 types of pervious areas (PERLNDs) established from combinations of surficial geology, land-use categories, and the distribution of public water and public sewer systems, and two types of impervious areas (IMPLNDs). Wetlands were combined with open water and simulated as stream reaches that receive runoff from surrounding pervious and impervious areas. This approach was taken to achieve greater flexibility in calibrating evapotranspiration losses from wetlands during the growing season. The basin was segmented into 50 reaches (RCHRES) to represent junctions at tributaries, major lakes and reservoirs, and drainage areas to streamflow-gaging stations. Climatological, streamflow, water-withdrawal, and wastewater-return data were collected during the study to develop the HSPF model. Climatological data collected at Worcester Regional Airport in Worcester, Massachusetts and T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island, were used for model calibration. A total of 15 streamflow-gaging stations were used in the calibration. Streamflow was measured at eight continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey cooperative streamflow-gaging network, and at seven partial-record stations installed in 2004 for this study. Because the model-calibration period preceded data collection at the partial-record stations, a continuous streamflow record was estimated at these stations by correlation with flows at nearby continuous-record stations to provide additional streamflow data for model calibration. Water-use information was compiled for 1996-2001 and included municipal and commercial/industrial withdrawals, private residential withdrawals, golf-course withdrawals, municipal wastewater-return flows, and on-site septic effluent return flows. Streamflow depletion was computed for all time-varying ground-water withdrawals prior to simulation. Water-use data were included in the model to represent the net effect of water use on simulated hydrographs. Consequently, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters better represent the hydrologic response of the basin to precipitation. The model was calibrated for 1997-2001 to coincide with the land-use and water-use data compiled for the study. Four long-term stations (Nipmuc River near Harrisville, Rhode Island; Quinsigamond River at North Grafton, Massachusetts; Branch River at Forestdale, Rhode Island; and Blackstone River at Woonsocket, Rhode Island) that monitor flow at 3.3, 5.4, 19, and 88 percent of the total basin area, respectively, provided the primary model-calibration points. Hydrographs, scatter plots, and flow-duration curves of observed and simulated discharges, along with various model-fit statistics, indicated that the model performed well over a range of hydrologic conditions. For example, the total runoff volume for the calibration period simulated at the Nipmuc River near Harrisville, Rhode Island; Quinsigamond River at North Grafton, Massachusetts; Branch River at Forestdale, Rhode Island; and Blackstone River at Woonsocket, Rhode Island streamflow-gaging stations differed from the observed runoff v

The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological reanalysis product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens

2014-05-01

Accurate and long time series of hydrological data are important for understanding land surface water and energy budgets in many parts of the world, as well as for improving real-time hydrological monitoring and climate change anticipation. The ultimate goal of the present work is to produce a multi-decadal "land surface hydrological reanalysis" dataset with retrospective and updated hydrological states and fluxes that are constrained to available in-situ river discharge measurements. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), which is a large-scale hydrological model intended for global to regional studies. PCR-GLOBWB provides a grid-based representation of terrestrial hydrology with a typical spatial resolution of approximately 50×50 km (currently 0.5° globally) on a daily basis. For each grid cell, PCR-GLOBWB simulates moisture storage in two vertically stacked soil layers as well as the water exchange between the soil and the atmosphere and the underlying groundwater reservoir. Exchange to the atmosphere comprises precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, as well as snow accumulation and melt, which are all simulated by considering vegetation phenology and sub-grid variations of elevation, land cover and soil saturation distribution. The model includes improved schemes for runoff-infiltration partitioning, interflow, groundwater recharge and baseflow, as well as river routing of discharge. It also dynamically simulates water storage in reservoirs, water demand and the withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. By embedding the PCR-GLOBWB model in an Ensemble Kalman Filter framework, we calibrate the model parameters based on the discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre. The parameters calibrated are related to snow accumulation and melt, runoff-infiltration partitioning, groundwater recharge, channel discharge and baseflow processes, as well as pre-factors to correct forcing precipitation fields with consideration of local topographic and orographic effects. Results show that the model parameters can be successfully calibrated, while corrections to the forcing precipitation fields are substantial. Topography has the largest impact on the corrected precipitation and globally the precipitation is reduced by 3%. The calibrated model output is compared to the reference run of PCR-GLOBWB before calibration showing significant improvement in simulation of the global terrestrial water cycle. The RMSE is reduced by 10% on average, leading to improved discharge simulations, especially under base flow situations. The main outcome of this work is a 1960-2010 global reanalysis dataset that includes extensive daily hydrological components, such as precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, snow, soil moisture, groundwater storage and discharge. This reanalysis product may be used for understanding land surface memory processes, initializing regional studies and operational forecasts, as well as evaluating and improving our understanding of spatio-temporal variation of meteorological and hydrological processes. Moreover, The PCR-GLOBWB data assimilation framework developed in this work can also be extended by including more observational data, including remotely sensed data reflecting the distribution of energy and water (e.g., heat fluxes and soil moisture storage).

Hydrological Impacts of Mesquite Encroachment in the Upper San Pedro Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Invasion of mesquite into grassland occurs in water-limited ecosystems throughout the world. To assess hydrological consequences of mesquite invasion, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate idealized progressive mesquite encroachments in the upper San P...

North American water availability under stress and duress: building understanding from simulations, observations and data products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.; Atchley, A. L.; Hector, B.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the available freshwater for human use and ecological function depends on fluxes and stores that are hard to observe. Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest terrestrial flux of water behind precipitation but is observed with low spatial density. Likewise, groundwater is the largest freshwater store, yet is equally uncertain. The ability to upscale observations of these variables is an additional complication; point measurements are made at scales orders of magnitude smaller than remote sensing data products. Integrated hydrologic models that simulate continental extents at fine spatial resolution are now becoming an additional tool to constrain fluxes and address interconnections. For example, recent work has shown connections between water table depth and transpiration partitioning, and demonstrated the ability to reconcile point observations and large-scale inferences. Here we explore the dynamics of large hydrologic systems experiencing change and stress across continental North America using integrated model simulations, observations and data products. Simulations of aquifer depletion due to pervasive groundwater pumping diagnose both stream depletion and changes in ET. Simulations of systematic increases in temperature are used to understand the relationship between snowpack dynamics, surface and groundwater flow, ET and a changing climate. Remotely sensed products including the GRACE estimates of total storage change are downscaled using model simulations to better understand human impacts to the hydrologic cycle. These example applications motivate a path forward to better use simulations to understand water availability.

Optimizing the Hydrological and Biogeochemical Simulations on a Hillslope with Stony Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.

2017-12-01

Stony soils are widely distributed in the hilly area. However, traditional pedotransfer functions are not reliable in predicting the soil hydraulic parameters for these soils due to the impacts of rock fragments. Therefore, large uncertainties and errors may exist in the hillslope hydrological and biogeochemical simulations in stony soils due to poor estimations of soil hydraulic parameters. In addition, homogenous soil hydraulic parameters are usually used in traditional hillslope simulations. However, soil hydraulic parameters are spatially heterogeneous on the hillslope. This may also cause the unreliable simulations. In this study, we obtained soil hydraulic parameters using five different approaches on a tea hillslope in Taihu Lake basin, China. These five approaches included (1) Rossetta predicted and spatially homogenous, (2) Rossetta predicted and spatially heterogeneous), (3) Rossetta predicted, rock fragment corrected and spatially homogenous, (4) Rossetta predicted, rock fragment corrected and spatially heterogeneous, and (5) extracted from observed soil-water retention curves fitted by dual-pore function and spatially heterogeneous (observed). These five sets of soil hydraulic properties were then input into Hydrus-3D and DNDC to simulate the soil hydrological and biogeochemical processes. The aim of this study is testing two hypotheses. First, considering the spatial heterogeneity of soil hydraulic parameters will improve the simulations. Second, considering the impact of rock fragment on soil hydraulic parameters will improve the simulations.

eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2014-05-01

In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global hydrological model are presented.

Historical Causes and Future Projections of Hydrological Drought Change over a Semi-arid Watershed in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Y.; Yuan, X.; Yang, D.

2017-12-01

During the past five decades, significant decreasing trends in streamflow records were observed at many hydrological gauges within the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China, leading to an intensified water resource shortage and a rising hydrological drought risk. This phenomenon is generally considered as a consequence of climate changes and human interventions, such as greenhouse gas emissions, regional land use/cover changes, dam and reservoir constructions and direct water withdrawals. There are many studies on the attribution of streamflow decline and hydrological drought change in this region, while a consolidated conclusion is missing.In this study, we focus on historical and future hydrological drought characteristics over a semi-arid watershed located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. Daily climate simulations from several IPCC CMIP5 models were collected to drive a newly developed eco-hydrological model CLM-GBHM with detailed description of river network and sub-basin topological relationship, to simulate streamflow series under different forcings and scenarios. The standard streamflow index was calculated and used to figure out the characteristics (e.g., frequency, duration and severity) of both historical and future hydrological droughts. The causes and contributions in terms of natural and anthropogenic influences will be investigated based on an optimal fingerprinting method, and the relative importance of internal variability, model and scenario uncertainties for future projections will also be estimated using a separation method. This study will facilitate the implementation of adaptation strategies for hydrological drought over the semi-arid watershed in a changing environment.

ENKI - An Open Source environmental modelling platfom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolberg, S.; Bruland, O.

2012-04-01

The ENKI software framework for implementing spatio-temporal models is now released under the LGPL license. Originally developed for evaluation and comparison of distributed hydrological model compositions, ENKI can be used for simulating any time-evolving process over a spatial domain. The core approach is to connect a set of user specified subroutines into a complete simulation model, and provide all administrative services needed to calibrate and run that model. This includes functionality for geographical region setup, all file I/O, calibration and uncertainty estimation etc. The approach makes it easy for students, researchers and other model developers to implement, exchange, and test single routines and various model compositions in a fixed framework. The open-source license and modular design of ENKI will also facilitate rapid dissemination of new methods to institutions engaged in operational water resource management. ENKI uses a plug-in structure to invoke separately compiled subroutines, separately built as dynamic-link libraries (dlls). The source code of an ENKI routine is highly compact, with a narrow framework-routine interface allowing the main program to recognise the number, types, and names of the routine's variables. The framework then exposes these variables to the user within the proper context, ensuring that distributed maps coincide spatially, time series exist for input variables, states are initialised, GIS data sets exist for static map data, manually or automatically calibrated values for parameters etc. By using function calls and memory data structures to invoke routines and facilitate information flow, ENKI provides good performance. For a typical distributed hydrological model setup in a spatial domain of 25000 grid cells, 3-4 time steps simulated per second should be expected. Future adaptation to parallel processing may further increase this speed. New modifications to ENKI include a full separation of API and user interface, making it possible to run ENKI from GIS programs and other software environments. ENKI currently compiles under Windows and Visual Studio only, but ambitions exist to remove the platform and compiler dependencies.

A Model for coupled heat and moisture transfer in permafrost regions of three rivers source areas, Qinghai, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X. L.; Xiang, X. H.; Wang, C. H.; Shao, Q. Q.

2012-04-01

Soil freezing occurs in winter in many parts of the world. The transfer of heat and moisture in freezing and thawing soil is interrelated, and this heat and moisture transport plays an important role in hydrological activity of seasonal frozen region especially for three rivers sources area of China. Soil freezing depth and ice content in frozen zone will significantly influence runoff and groundwater recharge. The purpose of this research is to develop a numerical model to simulate water and heat movement in the soil under freezing and thawing conditions. The basic elements of the model are the heat and water flow equations, which are heat conduction equation and unsaturated soil fluid mass conservation equation. A full-implicit finite volume scheme is used to solve the coupled equations in space. The model is calibrated and verified against the observed moisture and temperature of soil during freezing and thawing period from 2005 to 2007. Different characters of heat and moisture transfer are testified, such as frozen depth, temperature field of 40 cm depth and topsoil moisture content, et al. The model is calibrated and verified against observed value, which indicate that the new model can be used successfully to simulate numerically the coupled heat and mass transfer process in permafrost regions. By simulating the runoff generation process and the driven factors of seasonal changes, the agreement illustrates that the coupled model can be used to describe the local phonemes of hydrologic activities and provide a support to the local Ecosystem services. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51009045; 40930635; 41001011; 41101018; 51079038), the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science (No. 2009CB421105), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2009B06614; 2010B00414), the National Non Profit Research Program of China (No. 200905013-8; 201101024; 20101224).

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jing; He, Fan; Jiu Xiong, Yu; Qiu, Guo Yu

2017-01-01

Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km2) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. CIRMIS data system. Volume 4. Driller's logs, stratigraphic cross section and utility routines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedrichs, D.R.

1980-01-01

The Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) Program is developing and applying the methodology for assessing the far-field, long-term post-closure safety of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories. AEGIS is being performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) under contract with the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWI) for the Department of Energy (DOE). One task within AEGIS is the development of methodology for analysis of the consequences (water pathway) from loss of repository containment as defined by various release scenarios. Analysis of the long-term, far-field consequences of release scenarios requires the application of numerical codes which simulate the hydrologicmore » systems, model the transport of released radionuclides through the hydrologic systems to the biosphere, and, where applicable, assess the radiological dose to humans. The various input parameters required in the analysis are compiled in data systems. The data are organized and prepared by various input subroutines for use by the hydrologic and transport codes. The hydrologic models simulate the groundwater flow systems and provide water flow directions, rates, and velocities as inputs to the transport models. Outputs from the transport models are basically graphs of radionuclide concentration in the groundwater plotted against time. After dilution in the receiving surface-water body (e.g., lake, river, bay), these data are the input source terms for the dose models, if dose assessments are required. The dose models calculate radiation dose to individuals and populations. CIRMIS (Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence) Data System is a storage and retrieval system for model input and output data, including graphical interpretation and display. This is the fourth of four volumes of the description of the CIRMIS Data System.« less

Conceptualizing Peatlands in a Physically-Based Spatially Distributed Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downer, Charles; Wahl, Mark

2017-04-01

In as part of a research effort focused on climate change effects on permafrost near Fairbanks, Alaska, it became apparent that peat soils, overlain by thick sphagnum moss, had a considerable effect on the overall hydrology. Peatlands represent a confounding mixture of vegetation, soils, and water that present challenges for conceptualizing and parametrizing hydrologic models. We employed the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis Model (GSSHA) in our analysis of the Caribou Poker Creek Experimental Watershed (CPCRW). GSSHA is a physically-based, spatially distributed, watershed model developed by the U.S. Army to simulate important streamflow-generating processes (Downer and Ogden, 2004). The model enables simulation of surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as soil temperature and frozen ground effects on subsurface water movement. The test site is a 104 km2 basin located in the Yukon-Tanana Uplands of the Northern Plateaus Physiographic Province centered on 65˚10' N latitude and 147˚30' W longitude. The area lies above the Chattanika River floodplain and is characterized by rounded hilltops with gentle slopes and alluvium-floored valleys having minimal relief (Wahrhaftig, 1965) underlain by a mica shist of the Birch Creek formation (Rieger et al., 1972). The region has a cold continental climate characterized by short warm summers and long cold winters. Observed stream flows indicated significant groundwater contribution with sustained base flows even during dry periods. A site visit exposed the presence of surface water flows indicating a mixed basin that would require both surface and subsurface simulation capability to properly capture the response. Soils in the watershed are predominately silt loam underlain by shallow fractured bedrock. Throughout much of the basin, a thick layer of live sphagnum moss and fine peat covers the ground surface. A restrictive layer of permafrost is found on north facing slopes. The combination of thick moss and peat soils presented a conundrum in terms of conceptualizing the hydrology and identifying reasonable parameter ranges for physical properties. Various combinations of overland roughness, surface retention, and subsurface flow were used to represent the peatlands. The process resulted in some interesting results that may shed light on the dominant hydrologic processes associated with peatland, as well as what hydrologic conceptualizations, simulation tools, and approaches are applicable in modeling peatland hydrology. Downer, C.W., Ogden, F.L., 2004. GSSHA: Model to simulate diverse stream flow producing processes. J. Hydrol. Eng. 161-174. Rieger, S., Furbush, C.E., Schoephorster, D.B., Summerfield Jr., H., Geiger, L.C., 1972. Soils of the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Interior Alaska. Hanover, New Hampshire. Wahrhaftig, C., 1965. Physiographic Divisions of Alaska. Washington, DC.

Strategies for Large Scale Implementation of a Multiscale, Multiprocess Integrated Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M.; Duffy, C.

2006-05-01

Distributed models simulate hydrologic state variables in space and time while taking into account the heterogeneities in terrain, surface, subsurface properties and meteorological forcings. Computational cost and complexity associated with these model increases with its tendency to accurately simulate the large number of interacting physical processes at fine spatio-temporal resolution in a large basin. A hydrologic model run on a coarse spatial discretization of the watershed with limited number of physical processes needs lesser computational load. But this negatively affects the accuracy of model results and restricts physical realization of the problem. So it is imperative to have an integrated modeling strategy (a) which can be universally applied at various scales in order to study the tradeoffs between computational complexity (determined by spatio- temporal resolution), accuracy and predictive uncertainty in relation to various approximations of physical processes (b) which can be applied at adaptively different spatial scales in the same domain by taking into account the local heterogeneity of topography and hydrogeologic variables c) which is flexible enough to incorporate different number and approximation of process equations depending on model purpose and computational constraint. An efficient implementation of this strategy becomes all the more important for Great Salt Lake river basin which is relatively large (~89000 sq. km) and complex in terms of hydrologic and geomorphic conditions. Also the types and the time scales of hydrologic processes which are dominant in different parts of basin are different. Part of snow melt runoff generated in the Uinta Mountains infiltrates and contributes as base flow to the Great Salt Lake over a time scale of decades to centuries. The adaptive strategy helps capture the steep topographic and climatic gradient along the Wasatch front. Here we present the aforesaid modeling strategy along with an associated hydrologic modeling framework which facilitates a seamless, computationally efficient and accurate integration of the process model with the data model. The flexibility of this framework leads to implementation of multiscale, multiresolution, adaptive refinement/de-refinement and nested modeling simulations with least computational burden. However, performing these simulations and related calibration of these models over a large basin at higher spatio- temporal resolutions is computationally intensive and requires use of increasing computing power. With the advent of parallel processing architectures, high computing performance can be achieved by parallelization of existing serial integrated-hydrologic-model code. This translates to running the same model simulation on a network of large number of processors thereby reducing the time needed to obtain solution. The paper also discusses the implementation of the integrated model on parallel processors. Also will be discussed the mapping of the problem on multi-processor environment, method to incorporate coupling between hydrologic processes using interprocessor communication models, model data structure and parallel numerical algorithms to obtain high performance.

A multiple hypotheses uncertainty analysis in hydrological modelling: about model structure, landscape parameterization, and numerical integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilz, Tobias; Francke, Till; Bronstert, Axel

2016-04-01

Until today a large number of competing computer models has been developed to understand hydrological processes and to simulate and predict streamflow dynamics of rivers. This is primarily the result of a lack of a unified theory in catchment hydrology due to insufficient process understanding and uncertainties related to model development and application. Therefore, the goal of this study is to analyze the uncertainty structure of a process-based hydrological catchment model employing a multiple hypotheses approach. The study focuses on three major problems that have received only little attention in previous investigations. First, to estimate the impact of model structural uncertainty by employing several alternative representations for each simulated process. Second, explore the influence of landscape discretization and parameterization from multiple datasets and user decisions. Third, employ several numerical solvers for the integration of the governing ordinary differential equations to study the effect on simulation results. The generated ensemble of model hypotheses is then analyzed and the three sources of uncertainty compared against each other. To ensure consistency and comparability all model structures and numerical solvers are implemented within a single simulation environment. First results suggest that the selection of a sophisticated numerical solver for the differential equations positively affects simulation outcomes. However, already some simple and easy to implement explicit methods perform surprisingly well and need less computational efforts than more advanced but time consuming implicit techniques. There is general evidence that ambiguous and subjective user decisions form a major source of uncertainty and can greatly influence model development and application at all stages.

Evaluating post-wildfire hydrologic recovery using ParFlow in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, S. R.; Kinoshita, A. M.; Atchley, A. L.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are naturally occurring hazards that can have catastrophic impacts. They can alter the natural processes within a watershed, such as surface runoff and subsurface water storage. Generally, post-fire hydrologic models are either one-dimensional, empirically-based models, or two-dimensional, conceptually-based models with lumped parameter distributions. These models are useful in providing runoff measurements at the watershed outlet; however, do not provide distributed hydrologic simulation at each point within the watershed. This research demonstrates how ParFlow, a three-dimensional, distributed hydrologic model can simulate post-fire hydrologic processes by representing soil burn severity (via hydrophobicity) and vegetation recovery as they vary both spatially and temporally. Using this approach, we are able to evaluate the change in post-fire water components (surface flow, lateral flow, baseflow, and evapotranspiration). This model is initially developed for a hillslope in Devil Canyon, burned in 2003 by the Old Fire in southern California (USA). The domain uses a 2m-cell size resolution over a 25 m by 25 m lateral extent. The subsurface reaches 2 m and is assigned a variable cell thickness, allowing an explicit consideration of the soil burn severity throughout the stages of recovery and vegetation regrowth. Vegetation regrowth is incorporated represented by satellite-based Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) products. The pre- and post-fire surface runoff, subsurface storage, and surface storage interactions are evaluated and will be used as a basis for developing a watershed-scale model. Long-term continuous simulations will advance our understanding of post-fire hydrological partitioning between water balance components and the spatial variability of watershed processes, providing improved guidance for post-fire watershed management.

Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

2014-12-01

Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large-scale models.

Modelling past hydrology of an interfluve area in the Campine region (NE Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leterme, Bertrand; Beerten, Koen; Gedeon, Matej; Vandersteen, Katrijn

2015-04-01

This study aims at hydrological model verification of a small lowland interfluve area (18.6 km²) in NE Belgium, for conditions that are different than today. We compare the current state with five reference periods in the past (AD 1500, 1770, 1854, 1909 and 1961) representing important stages of landscape evolution in the study area. Historical information and proxy data are used to derive conceptual model features and boundary conditions specific to each period: topography, surface water geometry (canal, drains and lakes), land use, soils, vegetation and climate. The influence of landscape evolution on the hydrological cycle is assessed using numerical simulations of a coupled unsaturated zone - groundwater model (HYDRUS-MODFLOW). The induced hydrological changes are assessed in terms of groundwater level, recharge, evapotranspiration, and surface water discharge. HYDRUS-MODFLOW coupling allows including important processes such as the groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration. Major land use change occurred between AD 1854 and 1909, with about 41% of the study area being converted from heath to coniferous forest, together with the development of a drainage network. Results show that this led to a significant decrease of groundwater recharge and lowering of the groundwater table. A limitation of the study lies in the comparison of simulated past hydrology with appropriate palaeo-records. Examples are given as how some indicators (groundwater head, swamp zones) can be used to tend to model validation. Quantifying the relative impact of land use and climate changes requires running sensitivity simulations where the models using alternative land use are run with the climate forcing of other periods. A few examples of such sensitivity runs are presented in order to compare the influence of land use and climate change on the study area hydrology.

A new spatial snow distribution in hydrological models parameterized from observed spatial variability of precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Weltzien, Ingunn

2016-04-01

The traditional catchment hydrological model with its many free calibration parameters is not a well suited tool for prediction under conditions for which is has not been calibrated. Important tasks for hydrological modelling such as prediction in ungauged basins and assessing hydrological effects of climate change are hence not solved satisfactory. In order to reduce the number of calibration parameters in hydrological models we have introduced a new model which uses a dynamic gamma distribution as the spatial frequency distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE). The parameters are estimated from observed spatial variability of precipitation and the magnitude of accumulation and melting events and are hence not subject to calibration. The relationship between spatial mean and variance of precipitation is found to follow a pattern where decreasing temporal correlation with increasing accumulation or duration of the event leads to a levelling off or even a decrease of the spatial variance. The new model for snow distribution is implemented in the, already parameter parsimonious, DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) hydrological model and was tested for 71 Norwegian catchments. We compared the new snow distribution model with the current operational snow distribution model where a fixed, calibrated coefficient of variation parameterizes a log-normal model for snow distribution. Results show that the precision of runoff simulations is equal, but that the new snow distribution model better simulates snow covered area (SCA) when compared with MODIS satellite derived snow cover. In addition, SWE is simulated more realistically in that seasonal snow is melted out and the building up of "snow towers" is prevented and hence spurious trends in SWE.

Modeling water scarcity over south Asia: Incorporating crop growth and irrigation models into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, Tara J.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.

2013-04-01

Large-scale hydrologic models, such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, are used for a variety of studies, from drought monitoring to projecting the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle decades in advance. The majority of these models simulates the natural hydrological cycle and neglects the effects of human activities such as irrigation, which can result in streamflow withdrawals and increased evapotranspiration. In some parts of the world, these activities do not significantly affect the hydrologic cycle, but this is not the case in south Asia where irrigated agriculture has a large water footprint. To address this gap, we incorporate a crop growth model and irrigation model into the VIC model in order to simulate the impacts of irrigated and rainfed agriculture on the hydrologic cycle over south Asia (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basin and peninsular India). The crop growth model responds to climate signals, including temperature and water stress, to simulate the growth of maize, wheat, rice, and millet. For the primarily rainfed maize crop, the crop growth model shows good correlation with observed All-India yields (0.7) with lower correlations for the irrigated wheat and rice crops (0.4). The difference in correlation is because irrigation provides a buffer against climate conditions, so that rainfed crop growth is more tied to climate than irrigated crop growth. The irrigation water demands induce hydrologic water stress in significant parts of the region, particularly in the Indus, with the streamflow unable to meet the irrigation demands. Although rainfall can vary significantly in south Asia, we find that water scarcity is largely chronic due to the irrigation demands rather than being intermittent due to climate variability.

A two-step sensitivity analysis for hydrological signatures in Jinhua River Basin, East China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Fu, G.; Chiang, Y. M.; Xu, Y. P.

2016-12-01

Owing to model complexity and large number of parameters, calibration and sensitivity analysis are difficult processes for distributed hydrological models. In this study, a two-step sensitivity analysis approach is proposed for analyzing the hydrological signatures in Jinhua River Basin, East China, using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). A rough sensitivity analysis is firstly conducted to obtain preliminary influential parameters via Analysis of Variance. The number of parameters was greatly reduced from eighteen-three to sixteen. Afterwards, the sixteen parameters are further analyzed based on a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, i.e., Sobol's sensitivity analysis method, to achieve robust sensitivity rankings and parameter contributions. Parallel-Computing is applied to reduce computational burden in variance-based sensitivity analysis. The results reveal that only a few number of model parameters are significantly sensitive, including rain LAI multiplier, lateral conductivity, porosity, field capacity, wilting point of clay loam, understory monthly LAI, understory minimum resistance and root zone depths of croplands. Finally several hydrological signatures are used for investigating the performance of DHSVM. Results show that high value of efficiency criteria didn't indicate excellent performance of hydrological signatures. For most samples from Sobol's sensitivity analysis, water yield was simulated very well. However, lowest and maximum annual daily runoffs were underestimated. Most of seven-day minimum runoffs were overestimated. Nevertheless, good performances of the three signatures above still exist in a number of samples. Analysis of peak flow shows that small and medium floods are simulated perfectly while slight underestimations happen to large floods. The work in this study helps to further multi-objective calibration of DHSVM model and indicates where to improve the reliability and credibility of model simulation.

A Study on the Effects of Spatial Scale on Snow Process in Hyper-Resolution Hydrological Modelling over Mountainous Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garousi Nejad, I.; He, S.; Tang, Q.; Ogden, F. L.; Steinke, R. C.; Frazier, N.; Tarboton, D. G.; Ohara, N.; Lin, H.

2017-12-01

Spatial scale is one of the main considerations in hydrological modeling of snowmelt in mountainous areas. The size of model elements controls the degree to which variability can be explicitly represented versus what needs to be parameterized using effective properties such as averages or other subgrid variability parameterizations that may degrade the quality of model simulations. For snowmelt modeling terrain parameters such as slope, aspect, vegetation and elevation play an important role in the timing and quantity of snowmelt that serves as an input to hydrologic runoff generation processes. In general, higher resolution enhances the accuracy of the simulation since fine meshes represent and preserve the spatial variability of atmospheric and surface characteristics better than coarse resolution. However, this increases computational cost and there may be a scale beyond which the model response does not improve due to diminishing sensitivity to variability and irreducible uncertainty associated with the spatial interpolation of inputs. This paper examines the influence of spatial resolution on the snowmelt process using simulations of and data from the Animas River watershed, an alpine mountainous area in Colorado, USA, using an unstructured distributed physically based hydrological model developed for a parallel computing environment, ADHydro. Five spatial resolutions (30 m, 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km) were used to investigate the variations in hydrologic response. This study demonstrated the importance of choosing the appropriate spatial scale in the implementation of ADHydro to obtain a balance between representing spatial variability and the computational cost. According to the results, variation in the input variables and parameters due to using different spatial resolution resulted in changes in the obtained hydrological variables, especially snowmelt, both at the basin-scale and distributed across the model mesh.

Comparison of SWAT Hydrological Model Results from TRMM 3B42, NEXRAD Stage III, and Oklahoma Mesonet Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobin, K. J.; Bennett, M. E.

2008-05-01

The Cimarron River Basin (3110 sq km) between Dodge and Guthrie, Oklahoma is located in northern Oklahoma and was used as a test bed to compare the hydrological model performance associated with different methods of precipitation quantification. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected for this project, which is a comprehensive model that, besides quantifying watershed hydrology, can simulate water quality as well as nutrient and sediment loading within stream reaches. An advantage of this location is the extensive monitoring of MET parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation) afforded by the Oklahoma Mesonet, which has been documented to improve the performance of SWAT. The utility of TRMM 3B42 and NEXRAD Stage III data in supporting the hydrologic modeling of Cimarron River Basin is demonstrated. Minor adjustments to selected model parameters were made to make parameter values more realistic based on results from previous studies and information and to more realistically simulate base flow. Significantly, no ad hoc adjustments to major parameters such as Curve Number or Available Soil Water were made and robust simulations were obtained. TRMM and NEXRAD data are aggregated into an average daily estimate of precipitation for each TRMM grid cell (0.25 degree X 0.25 degree). Preliminary simulation of stream flow (year 2004 to 2006) in the Cimarron River Basin yields acceptable monthly results with very little adjustment of model parameters using TRMM 3B42 precipitation data (mass balance error = 3 percent; Monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NS) = 0.77). However, both Oklahoma Mesonet rain gauge (mass balance error = 13 percent; Monthly NS = 0.91; Daily NS = 0.64) and NEXRAD Stage III data (mass balance error = -5 percent; Monthly NS = 0.95; Daily NS = 0.69) produces superior simulations even at a sub-monthly time scale; daily results are time averaged over a three day period. Note that all types of precipitation data perform better than a synthetic precipitation dataset generated using a weather simulator (mass balance error = 12 percent; Monthly NS = 0.40). Our study again documents that merged precipitation satellite products, such as TRMM 3B42, can support semi-distributed hydrologic modeling at the watershed scale. However, apparently additional work is required to improve TRMM precipitation retrievals over land to generate a product that yields more robust hydrological simulations especially at finer time scales. Additionally, ongoing work in this basin will compare TRMM results with stream flow model results generated using CMORPH precipitation estimates. Finally, in the future we plan to use simulated, semi-distributed soil moisture values determined by SWAT for comparison with gridded soil moisture estimates from TRMM-TMI that should provide further validation of our modeling efforts.

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.

2014-01-01

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions to a simulated record of unaltered streamflow. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the persistence of hydrologic measurements from month to month for the prediction of developing hydrologic drought conditions and quantitatively indicates which hydrologic variables may be used to indicate the onset of hydrologic drought conditions. Rank correlation analysis also indicates the potential use of each variable for estimating the monthly minimum unaltered flow at a site of interest for use in the drought-projection analysis. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS is done by calculating Spearman’s rho for paired samples and the 95-percent confidence limits of this rho value. Rank correlation analysis can be done by using precipitation, groundwater levels, measured streamflows, and estimated unaltered streamflows. Serial correlation analysis, which indicates relations between current and future values, can be done for a single site. Cross correlation analysis, which indicates relations among current values at one site and current and future values at a second site, also can be done. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the risk for being in a hydrologic drought condition during the current month and the five following months with and without pumping. Drought-projection analysis also indicates the potential effectiveness of water-conservation methods for mitigating the effect of withdrawals in the coming months on the basis of the amount of depletion caused by different pumping plans and on the risk of unaltered flows being below streamflow targets. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS is done with Monte Carlo methods by using the position analysis method. In this method the initial value of estimated unaltered streamflows is calculated by correlation to a measured hydrologic variable (monthly precipitation, groundwater levels, or streamflows from an index station identified with the rank correlation analysis). Then a pseudorandom number generator is used to create 251 six-month-long flow traces by using a bootstrap method. Serial correlation of the estimated unaltered monthly minimum streamflows determined from the rank correlation analysis is preserved within each flow trace. The sample of unaltered streamflows indicates the risk of being below flow targets in the coming months under simulated natural conditions (without historic withdrawals). The streamflow-depletion algorithms are then used to estimate risks of flow being below targets if selected pumping plans are used. This report also describes the implementation of the HyDroDSS. The HyDroDSS was developed as a Microsoft Access® database application to facilitate storage, handling, and use of hydrologic datasets with a simple graphical user interface. The program is implemented in the database by using the Visual Basic for Applications® (VBA) programming language. Program source code for the analytical techniques is provided in the HyDroDSS and in electronic text files accompanying this report. Program source code for the graphical user interface and for data-handling code, which is specific to Microsoft Access® and the HyDroDSS, is provided in the database. An installation package with a run-time version of the software is available with this report for potential users who do not have a compatible copy of Microsoft Access®. Administrative rights are needed to install this version of the HyDroDSS. A case study, to demonstrate the use of HyDroDSS and interpretation of results for a site of interest, is detailed for the USGS streamgage on the Hunt River (station 01117000) near East Greenwich in central Rhode Island. The Hunt River streamgage was used because it has a long record of streamflow and is in a well-studied basin with a substantial amount of hydrologic and water-use data including groundwater pumping for municipal water supply.

Assessing the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling in the Context of Hydrologic Implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; IM, E. S.; Lee, M. H.

2017-12-01

There is a scientific consensus that high-resolution climate simulations downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) can provide valuable refined information over the target region. However, a significant body of hydrologic impact assessment has been performing using the climate information provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) in spite of a fundamental spatial scale gap. It is probably based on the assumption that the substantial biases and spatial scale gap from GCMs raw data can be simply removed by applying the statistical bias correction and spatial disaggregation. Indeed, many previous studies argue that the benefit of dynamical downscaling using RCMs is minimal when linking climate data with the hydrological model, from the comparison of the impact between bias-corrected GCMs and bias-corrected RCMs on hydrologic simulations. It may be true for long-term averaged climatological pattern, but it is not necessarily the case when looking into variability across various temporal spectrum. In this study, we investigate the added value of dynamical downscaling focusing on the performance in capturing climate variability. For doing this, we evaluate the performance of the distributed hydrological model over the Korean river basin using the raw output from GCM and RCM, and bias-corrected output from GCM and RCM. The impacts of climate input data on streamflow simulation are comprehensively analyzed. [Acknowledgements]This research is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 17AWMP-B083066-04).

MODFLOW-OWHM v2: New Features and Improvements; The Next Generation of MODFLOW Conjunctive Use Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyce, S. E.; Hanson, R. T.; Henson, W.; Ferguson, I. M.; Schmid, W.; Reimann, T.; Mehl, S.

2017-12-01

The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (One-Water) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model designed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use and sustainability issues. It was motivated by the need to merge the multiple variants of MODFLOW-2005 to yield an enhanced unified version capable of simulating conjunctive use and management, sustainability, climate-related issues, and managing the relationships between groundwater, surface water, and land usage. One-Water links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by agriculture and natural vegetation on the landscape, and for potable and other uses within a supply-and-demand framework. The first version, released in 2014, was selected by The World Bank Water Resource Software Review in 2016 as one of three recommended simulation programs for conjunctive use and management modeling. One-Water is also being used as the primary simulation engine for FREEWAT, a European Union sponsored open-source water management software environment. The next version of One-Water will include a new surface-water operations module that simulates dynamic reservoir operations and a conduit-flow process for karst aquifers and leaky pipe networks. It will also include enhancements to local grid refinement, and additional features to facilitate easier model updates, faster execution, better error messages, and more integration/cross communication between the traditional MODFLOW packages. The new structure also helps facilitate the new integration into a "Self-Updating" structure of data streams, simulation, and analysis needed for modern water resource management. By retaining and tracking the water within the hydrosphere, One-Water accounts for "all of the water everywhere and all of the time." This philosophy provides more confidence in the water accounting to the scientific community and provides the public a foundation needed to address wider classes of problems. Ultimately, more complex questions are being asked about water resources, requiring tools that more completely answer conjunctive-use management questions.

Assessment of Flood Mitigation Solutions Using a Hydrological Model and Refined 2D Hydrodynamic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khuat Duy, B.; Archambeau, P.; Dewals, B. J.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.

2009-04-01

Following recurrent inundation problems on the Berwinne catchment, in Belgium, a combined hydrologic and hydrodynamic study has been carried out in order to find adequate solutions for the floods mitigation. Thanks to detailed 2D simulations, the effectiveness of the solutions can be assessed not only in terms of discharge and height reductions in the river, but also with other aspects such as the inundated surfaces reduction and the decrease of inundated buildings and roads. The study is carried out in successive phases. First, the hydrological runoffs are generated using a physically based and spatially distributed multi-layer model solving depth-integrated equations for overland flow, subsurface flow and baseflow. Real floods events are simulated using rainfall series collected at 8 stations (over 20 years of available data). The hydrological inputs are routed through the river network (and through the sewage network if relevant) with the 1D component of the modelling system, which solves the Saint-Venant equations for both free-surface and pressurized flows in a unified way. On the main part of the river, the measured river cross-sections are included in the modelling, and existing structures along the river (such as bridges, sluices or pipes) are modelled explicitely with specific cross sections. Two gauging stations with over 15 years of continuous measurements allow the calibration of both the hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. Second, the flood mitigation solutions are tested in the simulations in the case of an extreme flooding event, and their effects are assessed using detailed 2D simulations on a few selected sensitive areas. The digital elevation model comes from an airborne laser survey with a spatial resolution of 1 point per square metre and is completed in the river bed with a bathymetry interpolated from cross-section data. The upstream discharge is extracted from the 1D simulation for the selected rainfall event. The study carried out with this methodology allowed to assess the suggested solutions with multiple effectiveness criteria and therefore constitutes a very useful support for decision makers.

Simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood along the Little Missouri River near Langley, Arkansas, using a hydrologic model coupled to a hydraulic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westerman, Drew A.; Clark, Brian R.

2013-01-01

The results from the precipitation-runoff hydrologic model, the one-dimensional unsteady-state hydraulic model, and a separate two-dimensional model developed as part of a coincident study, each complement the other in terms of streamflow timing, water-surface elevations, and velocities propagated by the June 11, 2010, flood event. The simulated grids for water depth and stream velocity from each model were directly compared by subtracting the one-dimensional hydraulic model grid from the two-dimensional model grid. The absolute mean difference for the simulated water depth was 0.9 foot. Additionally, the absolute mean difference for the simulated stream velocity was 1.9 feet per second.

Insights on the impact of systematic model errors on data assimilation performance in changing catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S.; Anghileri, D.; Burlando, P.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L.; Moradkhani, H.

2018-03-01

The global prevalence of rapid and extensive land use change necessitates hydrologic modelling methodologies capable of handling non-stationarity. This is particularly true in the context of Hydrologic Forecasting using Data Assimilation. Data Assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve forecast skill in hydrologic and meteorological applications, although such improvements are conditional on using bias-free observations and model simulations. A hydrologic model calibrated to a particular set of land cover conditions has the potential to produce biased simulations when the catchment is disturbed. This paper sheds new light on the impacts of bias or systematic errors in hydrologic data assimilation, in the context of forecasting in catchments with changing land surface conditions and a model calibrated to pre-change conditions. We posit that in such cases, the impact of systematic model errors on assimilation or forecast quality is dependent on the inherent prediction uncertainty that persists even in pre-change conditions. Through experiments on a range of catchments, we develop a conceptual relationship between total prediction uncertainty and the impacts of land cover changes on the hydrologic regime to demonstrate how forecast quality is affected when using state estimation Data Assimilation with no modifications to account for land cover changes. This work shows that systematic model errors as a result of changing or changed catchment conditions do not always necessitate adjustments to the modelling or assimilation methodology, for instance through re-calibration of the hydrologic model, time varying model parameters or revised offline/online bias estimation.

Real-time hydrological early warning system at national scale for surface water and groundwater with stakeholder involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, X.; Stisen, S.; Henriksen, H. J.

2015-12-01

Hydrological models are important tools to support decision making in water resource management in the past few decades. Nowadays, frequent occurrence of extreme hydrological events has put focus on development of real-time hydrological modeling and forecasting systems. Among the various types of hydrological models, it is only the rainfall-runoff models for surface water that are commonly used in the online real-time fashion; and there is never a tradition to use integrated hydrological models for both surface water and groundwater with large scale perspective. At the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), we have setup and calibrated an integrated hydrological model that covers the entire nation, namely the DK-model. So far, the DK-model has only been used in offline mode for historical and future scenario simulations. Therefore, challenges arise when operating the DK-model in real-time mode due to lack of technical experiences and stakeholder awareness. In the present study, we try to demonstrate the process of bringing the DK-model online while actively involving the opinions of the stakeholders. Although the system is not yet fully operational, a prototype has been finished and presented to the stakeholders which can simulate groundwater levels, streamflow and water content in the root zone with a lead time of 48 hours and refreshed every 6 hours. The active involvement of stakeholders has provided very valuable insights and feedbacks for future improvements.

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

2018-01-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

Time-dependent Data System (TDDS); an interactive program to assemble, manage, and appraise input data and numerical output of flow/transport simulation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regan, R.S.; Schaffranek, R.W.; Baltzer, R.A.

1996-01-01

A system of functional utilities and computer routines, collectively identified as the Time-Dependent Data System CI DDS), has been developed and documented by the U.S. Geological Survey. The TDDS is designed for processing time sequences of discrete, fixed-interval, time-varying geophysical data--in particular, hydrologic data. Such data include various, dependent variables and related parameters typically needed as input for execution of one-, two-, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic/transport and associated water-quality simulation models. Such data can also include time sequences of results generated by numerical simulation models. Specifically, TDDS provides the functional capabilities to process, store, retrieve, and compile data in a Time-Dependent Data Base (TDDB) in response to interactive user commands or pre-programmed directives. Thus, the TDDS, in conjunction with a companion TDDB, provides a ready means for processing, preparation, and assembly of time sequences of data for input to models; collection, categorization, and storage of simulation results from models; and intercomparison of field data and simulation results. The TDDS can be used to edit and verify prototype, time-dependent data to affirm that selected sequences of data are accurate, contiguous, and appropriate for numerical simulation modeling. It can be used to prepare time-varying data in a variety of formats, such as tabular lists, sequential files, arrays, graphical displays, as well as line-printer plots of single or multiparameter data sets. The TDDB is organized and maintained as a direct-access data base by the TDDS, thus providing simple, yet efficient, data management and access. A single, easily used, program interface that provides all access to and from a particular TDDB is available for use directly within models, other user-provided programs, and other data systems. This interface, together with each major functional utility of the TDDS, is described and documented in this report.

Hydrology of the Bonneville Salt Flats, northwestern Utah, and simulation of ground-water flow and solute transport in the shallow-brine aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, James L.; Kipp, Kenneth L.

1998-01-01

This report describes the hydrologic system of the Bonneville Salt Flats with emphasis on the mechanisms of solute transport. Variable-density, three-dimensional computer simulations of the near-surface part of the ground-water system were done to quantify both the transport of salt dissolved in subsurface brine that leaves the salt-crust area and the salt dissolved and precipitated on the land surface. The study was designed to define the hydrology of the brine ground-water system and the natural and anthropogenic processes causing salt loss, and where feasible, to quantify these processes. Specific areas of study include the transport of salt in solution by ground-water flow and the transport of salt in solution by wind-driven ponds and the subsequent salt precipitation on the surface of the playa upon evaporation or seepage into the subsurface. In addition, hydraulic and chemical changes in the hydrologic system since previous studies were documented.

Southwestern Division 2012 History Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

maintenance to be performed. Examples of additional maintenance included hydraulic piping replacement, motor control center upgrades, miter gates anchorage...in CEBIS. WATER MANAGEMENT PROGRAM 2012 Hydrology , Hydraulics and Water Management Programs 2012: In March 2012, the Corps’ SWD office...hosted the annual “2012 Reservoir Control Center/Hydrology and Hydraulics annual meeting. The meeting was held in Tulsa, Oklahoma at the Tulsa

Flash-Flood hydrological simulations at regional scale. Scale signature on road flooding vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquetin, Sandrine; Vannier, Olivier; Ollagnier, Mélody; Braud, Isabelle

2015-04-01

This work contributes to the evaluation of the dynamics of the human exposure during flash-flood events in the Mediterranean region. Understanding why and how the commuters modify their daily mobility in the Cévennes - Vivarais area (France) is the long-term objective of the study. To reach this objective, the methodology relies on three steps: i) evaluation of daily travel patterns, ii) reconstitution of road flooding events in the region based on hydrological simulation at regional scale in order to capture the time evolution and the intensity of flood and iii) identification of the daily fluctuation of the exposition according to road flooding scenarios and the time evolution of mobility patterns. This work deals with the second step. To do that, the physically based and non-calibrated hydrological model CVN (Vannier, 2013) is implemented to retrieve the hydrological signature of past flash-flood events in Southern France. Four past events are analyzed (September 2002; September 2005 (split in 2 different events); October 2008). Since the regional scale is investigated, the scales of the studied catchments range from few km2 to few hundreds of km2 where many catchments are ungauged. The evaluation is based on a multi-scale approach using complementary observations coming from post-flood experiments (for small and/or ungaugged catchments) and operational hydrological network (for larger catchments). The scales of risk (time and location of the road flooding) are also compared to observed data of road cuts. The discussion aims at improving our understanding on the hydrological processes associated with road flooding vulnerability. We specifically analyze runoff coefficient and the ratio between surface and groundwater flows at regional scale. The results show that on the overall, the three regional simulations provide good scores for the probability of detection and false alarms concerning road flooding (1600 points are analyzed for the whole region). Our evaluation procedure provides new insights on the active hydrological processes at small scales (catchments area < 10 km²) since these small scales, distributed over the whole region, are analyzed through road cuts data and post-flood field investigations. As shown in Vannier (2013), the signature of the altered geological layer is significant on the simulated discharges. For catchments under schisty geology, the simulated discharge, whatever the catchment size, is usually overestimated. Vannier, O, 2013, Apport de la modélisation hydrologique régionale à la compréhension des processus de crue en zone méditerranéenne, PhD-Thesis (in French), Grenoble University.

Hydrogeologic studies at the USGS Amargosa Desert Research Site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andraski, Brian J.; Stonestrom, David A.; Taylor, Emily M.

1998-01-01

In 1976, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began studies of unsaturated-zone hydrology in the Amargosa Desert in support of the USGS Low-Level Radioactive Waste Program. In 1983, agreements with the Bureau of Land Management and the State of Nevada established two field study areas: a 16-ha area adjacent to a waste-burial facility 17 km south of Beatty and a 0.1-ha area about 3 km farther south (fig. 1A). The study areas are collectively known as the Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS). Investigations at the ADRS have provided long-term benchmark information about hydraulic characteristics and soil-water movement for undisturbed conditions and for simulated waste-site conditions in arid environments. In 1995, as a result of unexpectedly finding high concentrations of tritium and carbon-14 in the unsaturated zone beneath the ADRS, the scope of research was broadened to include the study of processes affecting radionuclide transport. The ADRS was incorporated into the USGS Toxic Substances Hydrology Program in 1997. Research at the site is a multidisciplinary, collaborative effort that involves scientists from the USGS, universities, research institutes, and national laboratories. The overall objective for research at the site is to improve understanding of and methods for characterizing mechanisms that control subsurface migration and fate of contaminants in arid environments.

Beam Propagator for Weather Radars, Modules 1 and 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortega, Edwin Campos

2013-10-08

This program simulates the beam propagation of weather radar pulses under particular and realistic atmospheric conditions (without using the assumption of standard refraction conditions). It consists of two modules: radiosondings_refract_index_many.pro (MAIN MODULE) beam_propagation_function.pro(EXTERNAL FUNCTION) FOR THE MAIN MODULE, THE CODE DOES OUTPUT--INTO A FILE--THE BEAM HEIGHT AS A FUNCTION OF RANGE. THE RADIOSONDE INPUT FILES SHOULD BE ALREADY AVAILABLE BY THE USER. FOR EXAMPLE, RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION FILES CAN BE OBTAINED AT: RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS DOWNLOADED AT "http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/soounding.html" OR "http://jervis.pyr.ec.gc.ca" THE EXTERNAL FUNCTION DOES THE ACTUAL COMPUTATION OF BEAM PROPAGATION. IT INCLUDES CONDITIONS OF ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION AND NEGATIVE ELEVATION ANGLES. THE EQUATIONSmore » USED HERE WERE DERIVED BY EDWIN CAMPOS, BASED ON THE SNELL-DESCARTES LAW OF REFRACTION, CONSIDERING THE EARTH CURVATURE. THE PROGRAM REQUIRES A COMPILER FOR THE INTERACTIVE DATA LANGUAGE (IDL). DESCRIPTION AND VALIDATION DETAILS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED IN THE PEER-REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE, AS FOLLOWS: Campos E. 2012. Estimating weather radar coverage over complex terrain, pp.26-32, peer reviewed, in Weather Radar and Hydrology, edited by Moore RJ, Cole SJ and Illingworth AJ. International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Press, IAHS Publ. 351. ISBN 978-1-907161-26-1.« less

Global operational hydrological forecasts through eWaterCycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

2015-04-01

Central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org) is the development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model. This model is able to produce 14 day ensemble forecasts based on a hydrological model and operational weather data (presently NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System). Special attention is paid to prediction of situations in which water related issues are relevant, such as floods, droughts, navigation, hydropower generation, and irrigation stress. Near-real time satellite data will be assimilated in the hydrological simulations, which is a feature that will be presented for the first time at EGU 2015. First, we address challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. An important feature in this is the use of existing standards and open-source software to the maximum extent possible. For example, we use the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) approach to coupling models (Basic Model Interface (BMI)). The hydrological model underlying the project is PCR-GLOBWB, built by Utrecht University. This is the motor behind the predictions and state estimations. Parts of PCR-GLOBWB have been re-engineered to facilitate running it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, run parallel on multiple nodes, as well as to use BMI. Hydrological models are not very CPU intensive compared to, say, atmospheric models. They are, however, memory hungry due to the localized processes and associated effective parameters. To accommodate this memory need, especially in an ensemble setting, a variation on the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter was developed that needs much less on-chip memory. Due to the operational nature, the coupling of the hydrological model with hydraulic models is very important. The idea is not to run detailed hydraulic routing schemes over the complete globe but to have on-demand simulation prepared off-line with respect to topography and parameterizations. This allows for very detailed simulations at hectare to meter scales, where and when this is needed. At EGU 2015, the operational global eWaterCycle model will be presented for the first time, including forecasts at high resolution, the innovative data assimilation approach, and on-demand coupling with hydraulic models.

Hydroclimatic Change in the Congo River Basin: Past, Present and Future169

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloysius, N. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical regions provide habitat for the world's most diverse fauna and flora, sequester more atmospheric carbon and provide livelihood for millions of people. The hydrological cycle provides vital linkages for maintaining these ecosystem functions, yet, the understanding of its spatiotemporal variability is limited. Research on the hydrological cycle of the Congo River Basin (CRB), which encompasses the second largest rainforests, has been largely ignored. Global Climate Models (GCM) show limited skills in simulating CRB's climate and their future projections vary widely. Yet, GCMs provide the most plausible scenarios of future climate, based upon which changes in hydrologic fluxes can be predicted with the aid hydrological models. In order to address the gaps in knowledge and to highlight the research needs, we i) developed a spatially explicit hydrological model suitable for describing key hydrological processes, ii) evaluated the performance of GCMs in simulating precipitation and temperature in the region, iii) developed a set of climate change scenarios for the CRB and iv) developed a simplified modeling framework to quantify water management options for rain-fed agriculture with the objective of achieving the triple goals of sustainable development: food security, poverty alleviation and ecosystem conservation. The hydrology model, which was validated with observed stream flows at 50 locations, satisfactorily characterizes spatiotemporal variability of key fluxes. Our evaluation of 25 GCM outputs reveal that many GCMs poorly simulate regional precipitation. We implemented a statistical bias-correction method to develop precipitation and temperature projections for two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These climate forcings were, then, used to drive the hydrology model. Our results show that the near-term projections are not affected by emission scenarios. However, towards the mid-21st century, projections are emission scenario dependent. Available freshwater resources are projected to increase in the CRB, except in the semiarid southeast. Our findings have wider implications for climate change assessment and water resource management, because the region, with high population growth and limited capacity to adapt, are primary targets of land and water grabs. 155

Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wanders, N.; Bierkens, M. F.

2012-12-01

Over the past decades, human water consumption has more than doubled, and reduced streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological droughts, i.e. the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow. Here, we quantify over the period 1960-2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological droughts worldwide. We simulated streamflow by the global hydrological and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB at a 0.5 degree spatial resolution, and reduced the amount of streamflow with different levels of human water consumption over the period 1960-2010. We applied the commonly used variable threshold level method to identify below-normal water availability as the onset of hydrological droughts. We then standardized the deficit volume dividing relative to the threshold level to express the intensity of drought conditions to normal streamflow conditions. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow in many regions of the world. This subsequently intensified hydrological droughts regionally by 10-500%. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over western and central U.S., southern Europe, Asia, and southeastern Australia, whereas the impact of industrial and households' consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over eastern U.S., and western and central Europe. The results also show that drought frequency increased by more than 27% compared to pristine or natural condition as a result of human water consumption. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia, but also substantial over North America and Europe. Importantly, global population under severe hydrological droughts considerably increased from 0.7 billion in 1960 to 2.2 billion in 2010 due to rapid population growth. As a limited validation exercise, we compared simulated deficit volumes to those derived from observed river discharges for some important basins of the world. The comparison shows generally good agreement, but large discrepancies occurred when simulated river discharge failed to reproduce well the peak discharge and the mean amplitude in seasonal discharges, regardless of high correlation obtained from comparison of monthly discharges.

Investigation and hazard assessment of the 2003 and 2007 Staircase Falls rock falls, Yosemite National Park, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Stock, Gregory M.; Reichenbach, P.; Snyder, J.B.; Borchers, J.W.; Godt, J.W.

2008-01-01

Since 1857 more than 600 rock falls, rock slides, debris slides, and debris flows have been documented in Yosemite National Park, with rock falls in Yosemite Valley representing the majority of the events. On 26 December 2003, a rock fall originating from west of Glacier Point sent approximately 200 m 3 of rock debris down a series of joint-controlled ledges to the floor of Yosemite Valley. The debris impacted talus near the base of Staircase Falls, producing fragments of flying rock that struck occupied cabins in Curry Village. Several years later on 9 June 2007, and again on 26 July 2007, smaller rock falls originated from the same source area. The 26 December 2003 event coincided with a severe winter storm and was likely triggered by precipitation and/or frost wedging, but the 9 June and 26 July 2007 events lack recognizable triggering mechanisms. We investigated the geologic and hydrologic factors contributing to the Staircase Falls rock falls, including bedrock lithology, weathering, joint spacing and orientations, and hydrologic processes affecting slope stability. We improved upon previous geomorphic assessment of rock-fall hazards, based on a shadow angle approach, by using STONE, a three-dimensional rock-fall simulation computer program. STONE produced simulated rock-fall runout patterns similar to the mapped extent of the 2003 and 2007 events, allowing us to simulate potential future rock falls from the Staircase Falls detachment area. Observations of recent rock falls, mapping of rock debris, and simulations of rock fall runouts beneath the Staircase Falls detachment area suggest that rock-fall hazard zones extend farther downslope than the extent previously defined by mapped surface talus deposits.

Rainfall simulations on a fire disturbed mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rulli, Maria Cristina; Bozzi, Silvia; Spada, Matteo; Bocchiola, Daniele; Rosso, Renzo

2006-08-01

SummaryRainfall simulator experiments were carried out in the Liguria region, Italy, immediately after a forest fire in early August, 2003, to evaluate the effects of forest fire on soil hydraulic properties, runoff and erosion. Two adjacent 30 m 2 plots were set up with common physiographic features, and the same fire history, except for the fire of August 2003, which burned only one of them. Since both plots were previously subject to the passage of fire in March 1997, one compares the hydrologic and sedimentologic response of an area burned in year 2003 (B03) with that of an area burnt 6 years before (B97). Each rainfall simulation consisted of a single 60 min application of rainfall with constant intensity of about 76 mm h -1. The results show runoff ratio, evaluated for different pre-event soil moisture conditions, ranging from 0% to 2% for B97 plot, and from 21% to 41% for B03. Runoff ratio for the recently burned plot was 60 times higher than for the plot burned six years before, under wet conditions, and 20 times higher, under very wet conditions. A large increase in sediment production also was measured in B03 plot, as compared with that in B97 plot. Suspended sediment yield from B03 plot was more than two orders of magnitude higher than that from B97 plot in all the simulated events. The high soil losses measured immediately after burning indicate that effective post-fire rehabilitation programs must be carried out to reduce soil erosion in recently burned areas. However, the results for the plot burned six year prior show that recovery of the hydrological properties of the soil occurs after the transient post-fire modification.

30 CFR 816.57 - Hydrologic balance: Activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Hydrologic balance: Activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams. 816.57 Section 816.57 Mineral Resources OFFICE OF SURFACE... PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.57 Hydrologic balance: Activities in...

30 CFR 817.57 - Hydrologic balance: Surface activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Hydrologic balance: Surface activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams. 817.57 Section 817.57 Mineral Resources OFFICE OF SURFACE... PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.57 Hydrologic balance: Surface...

30 CFR 817.57 - Hydrologic balance: Surface activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Hydrologic balance: Surface activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams. 817.57 Section 817.57 Mineral Resources OFFICE OF SURFACE... PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND MINING ACTIVITIES § 817.57 Hydrologic balance: Surface...

30 CFR 816.57 - Hydrologic balance: Activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Hydrologic balance: Activities in or adjacent to perennial or intermittent streams. 816.57 Section 816.57 Mineral Resources OFFICE OF SURFACE... PERMANENT PROGRAM PERFORMANCE STANDARDS-SURFACE MINING ACTIVITIES § 816.57 Hydrologic balance: Activities in...

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Montana, October 1982 through September 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, Robert S.

1983-01-01

The investigative efforts of the U.S. Geological Survey toward the water resources of Montana are described. Hydrologic information and knowledge of the water resources are gained annd disseminated principally by programs of (1) collecting hydrologic data on a continuing basis, (2) conducting water-resources appraisals of surface and ground water, (3) conducting supportive research in hydrology and related fields, (4) disseminating water data and results of investigations to the public, (5) coordinating acquisition of water data by Federal agencies, and (6) providing technical assistance in hydrologic fields to other government agencies. The Montana district of the U.S. Geological Survey conducts its hydrologic work through a headquarters office in Helena, a subdistrict office in Billings, and field offices in Helena, Fort Peck, and Kalispell. The district employs 67 people to work on 24 funded projects that are organized under the general categories of data-collection programs, problem-oriented studies, areal appraisals, coal-related studies, research projects, and hydrologic studies and research performed under a system of contracts to research organizations. (USGS)

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate river basin in South China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Chen, Ji

2013-01-01

Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.

Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Its Response to Hydrological Characteristics in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Kai; Huang, Xiaorong; Guo, Biying; Wang, Yanqiu; Gao, Linyun

2018-06-01

Land use changes alter the hydrological characteristics of the land surface, and have significant impacts on hydrological cycle and water balance, the analysis of complex effects on natural systems has become one of the main concerns. In this study, we generated the land use conversion matrixes using ArcGIS and selected several landscape indexes (contagion index, CONTAG, Shannon's diversity index, SHDI, etc.) to evaluate the impact of land use/cover changes on hydrological process in the upper reaches of Minjiang River. We also used a statistical regression model which was established based on hydrology and precipitation data during the period of 1959-2008 to simulate the impacts of different land use conditions on rainfall and runoff in different periods. Our results showed that the simulated annual mean flow from 1985 to 1995 and 1995 to 2008 are 9.19 and 1.04 m3 s-1 lower than the measured values, respectively, which implied that the ecological protection measures should be strengthened in the study area. Our study could provide a scientific basis for water resource management and proper land use planning of upper reaches of Minjiang River.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology.This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in thesemi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-basedmodel is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCSCN)method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation,the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologicsimulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor inregulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increaseriver discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deservesattention in climate change adaptation planning.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Chen, H., S. Tong, H. Yang, and J. Yang. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed. Hydrological Sciences Journal. IAHS LIMITED, Oxford, UK, 60(10): 1739-1758, (2015).

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

[Gene method for inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation. I: Inheritance, variability and evolution principles of hydrological genes].

PubMed

Xie, Ping; Wu, Zi Yi; Zhao, Jiang Yan; Sang, Yan Fang; Chen, Jie

2018-04-01

A stochastic hydrological process is influenced by both stochastic and deterministic factors. A hydrological time series contains not only pure random components reflecting its inheri-tance characteristics, but also deterministic components reflecting variability characteristics, such as jump, trend, period, and stochastic dependence. As a result, the stochastic hydrological process presents complicated evolution phenomena and rules. To better understand these complicated phenomena and rules, this study described the inheritance and variability characteristics of an inconsistent hydrological series from two aspects: stochastic process simulation and time series analysis. In addition, several frequency analysis approaches for inconsistent time series were compared to reveal the main problems in inconsistency study. Then, we proposed a new concept of hydrological genes origined from biological genes to describe the inconsistent hydrolocal processes. The hydrologi-cal genes were constructed using moments methods, such as general moments, weight function moments, probability weight moments and L-moments. Meanwhile, the five components, including jump, trend, periodic, dependence and pure random components, of a stochastic hydrological process were defined as five hydrological bases. With this method, the inheritance and variability of inconsistent hydrological time series were synthetically considered and the inheritance, variability and evolution principles were fully described. Our study would contribute to reveal the inheritance, variability and evolution principles in probability distribution of hydrological elements.

Overview of a simple model describing variation of dissolved organic carbon in an upland catchment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Hornberger, George M.; Bencala, Kenneth E.; McKnight, Diane M.

1996-01-01

Hydrological mechanisms controlling the variation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were investigated in the Deer Creek catchment located near Montezuma, CO. Patterns of DOC in streamflow suggested that increased flows through the upper soil horizon during snowmelt are responsible for flushing this DOC-enriched interstitial water to the streams. We examined possible hydrological mechanisms to explain the observed variability of DOC in Deer Creek by first simulating the hydrological response of the catchment using TOPMODEL and then routing the predicted flows through a simple model that accounted for temporal changes in DOC. Conceptually the DOC model can be taken to represent a terrestrial (soil) reservoir in which DOC builds up during low flow periods and is flushed out when infiltrating meltwaters cause the water table to rise into this “reservoir”. Concentrations of DOC measured in the upper soil and in streamflow were compared to model simulations. The simulated DOC response provides a reasonable reproduction of the observed dynamics of DOC in the stream at Deer Creek.

Water resources in the twenty-first century; a study of the implications of climate uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.; Lins, Harry F.

1989-01-01

The interactions of the water resources on and within the surface of the Earth with the atmosphere that surrounds it are exceedingly complex. Increased uncertainty can be attached to the availability of water of usable quality in the 21st century, therefore, because of potential anthropogenic changes in the global climate system. For the U.S. Geological Survey to continue to fulfill its mission with respect to assessing the Nation's water resources, an expanded program to study the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be required. The goal for this program is to develop knowledge and information concerning the potential water-resources implications for the United States of uncertainties in climate that may result from both anthropogenic and natural changes of the Earth's atmosphere. Like most past and current water-resources programs of the Geological Survey, the climate-uncertainty program should be composed of three elements: (1) research, (2) data collection, and (3) interpretive studies. However, unlike most other programs, the climate-uncertainty program necessarily will be dominated by its research component during its early years. Critical new concerns to be addressed by the research component are (1) areal estimates of evapotranspiration, (2) hydrologic resolution within atmospheric (climatic) models at the global scale and at mesoscales, (3) linkages between hydrology and climatology, and (4) methodology for the design of data networks that will help to track the impacts of climate change on water resources. Other ongoing activities in U.S. Geological Survey research programs will be enhanced to make them more compatible with climate-uncertainty research needs. The existing hydrologic data base of the Geological Survey serves as a key element in assessing hydrologic and climatologic change. However, this data base has evolved in response to other needs for hydrologic information and probably is not as sensitive to climate change as is desirable. Therefore, as measurement and network-design methodologies are improved to account for climate-change potential, new data-collection activities will be added to the existing programs. One particular area of data-collection concern pertains to the phenomenon of evapotranspiration. Interpretive studies of the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be initiated by establishing several studies at the river-basin scale in diverse hydroclimatic and demographic settings. These studies will serve as tests of the existing methodologies for studying the impacts of climate change and also will help to define subsequent research priorities. A prototype for these studies was initiated in early 1988 in the Delaware River basin.

Student-Centered Modules to Support Active Learning in Hydrology: Development Experiences and Users' Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Habib, E. H.; Deshotel, M.; Merck, M. F.; Lall, U.; Farnham, D. J.

2016-12-01

Traditional approaches to undergraduate hydrology and water resource education are textbook based, adopt unit processes and rely on idealized examples of specific applications, rather than examining the contextual relations in the processes and the dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. The overarching goal of this project is to address the needed paradigm shift in undergraduate education of engineering hydrology and water resources education to reflect parallel advances in hydrologic research and technology, mainly in the areas of new observational settings, data and modeling resources and web-based technologies. This study presents efforts to develop a set of learning modules that are case-based, data and simulation driven and delivered via a web user interface. The modules are based on real-world case studies from three regional hydrologic settings: Coastal Louisiana, Utah Rocky Mountains and Florida Everglades. These three systems provide unique learning opportunities on topics such as: regional-scale budget analysis, hydrologic effects of human and natural changes, flashflood protection, climate-hydrology teleconnections and water resource management scenarios. The technical design and contents of the modules aim to support students' ability for transforming their learning outcomes and skills to hydrologic systems other than those used by the specific activity. To promote active learning, the modules take students through a set of highly engaging learning activities that are based on analysis of hydrologic data and model simulations. The modules include user support in the form of feedback and self-assessment mechanisms that are integrated within the online modules. Module effectiveness is assessed through an improvement-focused evaluation model using a mixed-method research approach guiding collection and analysis of evaluation data. Both qualitative and quantitative data are collected through student learning data, product analysis, and staff interviews. The presentation shares with the audience lessons learned from the development and implementation of the modules, students' feedback, guidelines on design and content attributes that support active learning in hydrology, and challenges encountered during the class implementation and evaluation of the modules.

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter time steps. This study suggests that measures of hydrologic response quantified at these shorter time steps may provide a more robust basis for making predictions in applications of water resource management, model calibration and simulations, and human health and safety.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic-simulation model for a hypothetical site in the Columbia Plateau. Volume 2: results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foley, M.G.; Petrie, G.M.; Baldwin, A.J.

1982-06-01

This report contains the input data and computer results for the Geologic Simulation Model. This model is described in detail in the following report: Petrie, G.M., et. al. 1981. Geologic Simulation Model for a Hypothetical Site in the Columbia Plateau, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington. The Geologic Simulation Model is a quasi-deterministic process-response model which simulates, for a million years into the future, the development of the geologic and hydrologic systems of the ground-water basin containing the Pasco Basin. Effects of natural processes on the ground-water hydrologic system are modeled principally by rate equations. The combined effects and synergistic interactionsmore » of different processes are approximated by linear superposition of their effects during discrete time intervals in a stepwise-integration approach.« less

Simulating the hydrologic response of a semiarid watershed to switchgrass cultivation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The conversion of land for biofuel cultivation is expected to increase given concerns about the sustainability of current fossil-fuel supplies. Nonetheless, research into the environmental impacts of biofuel crops, primarily the hydrological impacts of their cultivation, is in its infancy. To inve...

Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

Information and complexity measures for hydrologic model evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrological models are commonly evaluated through the residual-based performance measures such as the root-mean square error or efficiency criteria. Such measures, however, do not evaluate the degree of similarity of patterns in simulated and measured time series. The objective of this study was to...

Collaborative modelling and integrated decision support system analysis of a developed terminal lake basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niswonger, Richard G.; Allander, Kip K.; Jeton, Anne E.

2014-01-01

A terminal lake basin in west-central Nevada, Walker Lake, has undergone drastic change over the past 90 yrs due to upstream water use for agriculture. Decreased inflows to the lake have resulted in 100 km2 decrease in lake surface area and a total loss of fisheries due to salinization. The ecologic health of Walker Lake is of great concern as the lake is a stopover point on the Pacific route for migratory birds from within and outside the United States. Stakeholders, water institutions, and scientists have engaged in collaborative modeling and the development of a decision support system that is being used to develop and analyze management change options to restore the lake. Here we use an integrated management and hydrologic model that relies on state-of-the-art simulation capabilities to evaluate the benefits of using integrated hydrologic models as components of a decision support system. Nonlinear feedbacks among climate, surface-water and groundwater exchanges, and water use present challenges for simulating realistic outcomes associated with management change. Integrated management and hydrologic modeling provides a means of simulating benefits associated with management change in the Walker River basin where drastic changes in the hydrologic landscape have taken place over the last century. Through the collaborative modeling process, stakeholder support is increasing and possibly leading to management change options that result in reductions in Walker Lake salt concentrations, as simulated by the decision support system.

Simulating the hydrological impacts of inter-annual and seasonal variability in land use land cover change on streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taxak, A. K.; Ojha, C. S. P.

2017-12-01

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes within a watershed are recognised as an important factor affecting hydrological processes and water resources. LULC changes continuously not only in long term but also on the inter-annual and season level. Changes in LULC affects the interception, storage and moisture. A widely used approach in rainfall-runoff modelling through Land surface models (LSM)/ hydrological models is to keep LULC same throughout the model running period. In long term simulations where land use change take place during the run period, using a single LULC does not represent a true picture of ground conditions could result in stationarity of model responses. The present work presents a case study in which changes in LULC are incorporated by using multiple LULC layers. LULC for the study period were created using imageries from Landsat series, Sentinal, EO-1 ALI. Distributed, physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was modified to allow inclusion of LULC as a time varying variable just like climate. The Narayani basin was simulated with LULC, leaf area index (LAI), albedo and climate data for 1992-2015. The results showed that the model simulation with varied parametrization approach has a large improvement over the conventional fixed parametrization approach in terms of long-term water balance. The proposed modelling approach could improve hydrological modelling for applications like land cover change studies, water budget studies etc.

The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological reanalysis product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; Wanders, N.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.

2013-12-01

Accurate and long time series of hydrological data are important for understanding land surface water and energy budgets in many parts of the world, as well as for improving real-time hydrological monitoring and climate change anticipation. The ultimate goal of the present work is to produce a multi-decadal land surface hydrological reanalysis with retrospective and updated hydrological states and fluxes that are constrained to available in-situ river discharge measurements. Here we used PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), which is a large-scale hydrological model intended for global to regional studies. PCR-GLOBWB provides a grid-based representation of terrestrial hydrology with a typical spatial resolution of approximately 50×50 km (currently 0.5° globally) on a daily basis. For each grid cell, PCR-GLOBWB is basically a leaky bucket type of water balance model with a process-based simulation of moisture storage in two vertically stacked soil layers as well as the water exchange between the soil and the atmosphere and the underlying groundwater reservoir. Exchange to the atmosphere comprises precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, as well as snow accumulation and melt, which are all simulated by considering vegetation phenology and sub-grid distributions of elevation, land cover and soil saturation distribution. The model thus includes detailed schemes for runoff-infiltration partitioning, interflow, groundwater recharge and baseflow, as well as river routing of discharge. . By embedding the PCR-GLOBWB model in an Ensemble Kalman Filter framework, we calibrated the model parameters based on the discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre. The parameters calibrated are related to snow module, runoff-infiltration partitioning, groundwater recharge, channel discharge and baseflow processes, as well as pre-factors to correct forcing precipitation fields due to local topographic and orographic effects. Results show that the model parameters can be calibrated and forcing precipitation fields were successfully corrected. The calibrated model output was compared to the reference run of PCR-GLOBWB before calibration. Here we found significant improvement in simulation of the global terrestrial water cycle, specifically discharge simulation for major river basins in the world. The main outcome of this work is a 1960-2010 global reanalysis dataset that includes extensive daily hydrological components, such as precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, snow, soil moisture, groundwater storage and discharge. This reanalysis product may be used for understanding land surface memory processes, initializing regional studies and operational forecasts, as well as evaluating and improving our understanding of spatio-temporal variation of meteorological and hydrological processes. Moreover, The PCR-GLOBWB data assimilation framework developed in this work can also be extended by including more observational data, including remotely sensed data reflecting the distribution of energy and water (e.g., heat fluxes and soil moisture storage).

Virginia flow-ecology modeling results—An initial assessment of flow reduction effects on aquatic biota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rapp, Jennifer L.; Reilly, Pamela A.

2017-11-14

BackgroundThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), reviewed a previously compiled set of linear regression models to assess their utility in defining the response of the aquatic biological community to streamflow depletion.As part of the 2012 Virginia Healthy Watersheds Initiative (HWI) study conducted by Tetra Tech, Inc., for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Virginia DEQ, a database with computed values of 72 hydrologic metrics, or indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA), 37 fish metrics, and 64 benthic invertebrate metrics was compiled and quality assured. Hydrologic alteration was represented by simulation of streamflow record for a pre-water-withdrawal condition (baseline) without dams or developed land, compared to the simulated recent-flow condition (2008 withdrawal simulation) including dams and altered landscape to calculate a percent alteration of flow. Biological samples representing the existing populations represent a range of alteration in the biological community today.For this study, all 72 IHA metrics, which included more than 7,272 linear regression models, were considered. This extensive dataset provided the opportunity for hypothesis testing and prioritization of flow-ecology relations that have the potential to explain the effect(s) of hydrologic alteration on biological metrics in Virginia streams.

A Unified Multi-scale Model for Cross-Scale Evaluation and Integration of Hydrological and Biogeochemical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Yang, X.; Bailey, V. L.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Hinkle, C.

2013-12-01

Mathematical representations of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in soil, plant, aquatic, and atmospheric systems vary with scale. Process-rich models are typically used to describe hydrological and biogeochemical processes at the pore and small scales, while empirical, correlation approaches are often used at the watershed and regional scales. A major challenge for multi-scale modeling is that water flow, biogeochemical processes, and reactive transport are described using different physical laws and/or expressions at the different scales. For example, the flow is governed by the Navier-Stokes equations at the pore-scale in soils, by the Darcy law in soil columns and aquifer, and by the Navier-Stokes equations again in open water bodies (ponds, lake, river) and atmosphere surface layer. This research explores whether the physical laws at the different scales and in different physical domains can be unified to form a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) to systematically investigate the cross-scale, cross-domain behavior of fundamental processes at different scales. This presentation will discuss our research on the concept, mathematical equations, and numerical execution of the UMSM. Three-dimensional, multi-scale hydrological processes at the Disney Wilderness Preservation (DWP) site, Florida will be used as an example for demonstrating the application of the UMSM. In this research, the UMSM was used to simulate hydrological processes in rooting zones at the pore and small scales including water migration in soils under saturated and unsaturated conditions, root-induced hydrological redistribution, and role of rooting zone biogeochemical properties (e.g., root exudates and microbial mucilage) on water storage and wetting/draining. The small scale simulation results were used to estimate effective water retention properties in soil columns that were superimposed on the bulk soil water retention properties at the DWP site. The UMSM parameterized from smaller scale simulations were then used to simulate coupled flow and moisture migration in soils in saturated and unsaturated zones, surface and groundwater exchange, and surface water flow in streams and lakes at the DWP site under dynamic precipitation conditions. Laboratory measurements of soil hydrological and biogeochemical properties are used to parameterize the UMSM at the small scales, and field measurements are used to evaluate the UMSM.

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Donald R.

2001-01-01

This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

Historical and Future Projected Hydrologic Extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, K.; Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing body of evidence from observed data that climate variability combined with regional climate change has had a significant impact on hydrologic cycles, including both seasonal patterns of runoff and altered hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods and extreme stormwater events). To better understand changing patterns of extreme high flows in Midwest and Great Lakes region, we analyzed long-term historical observations of peak streamflow at different gaging stations. We also conducted hydrologic model experiments using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) at 1/16 degree resolution in order to explore sensitivity of annual peak streamflow, both historically and under temperature and precipitation changes for several future periods. For future projections, the Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling approach applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison, Phase5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios was used to produce driving data for the VIC hydrologic model. Preliminary results for several test basins in the Midwest support the hypothesis that there are consistent and statistically significant changes in the mean annual flood starting before and after about 1975. Future projections using hydrologic model simulations support the hypothesis of higher peak flows due to warming and increasing precipitation projected for the 21st century. We will extend this preliminary analysis using observed data and simulations from 40 river basins in the Midwest to further test these hypotheses.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

An integrated approach to investigate the hydrological behavior of the Santa Fe River Basin, north central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vibhava, F.; Graham, W. D.; De Rooij, R.; Maxwell, R. M.; Martin, J. B.; Cohen, M. J.

2011-12-01

The Santa Fe River Basin (SFRB) consists of three linked hydrologic units: the upper confined region (UCR), semi-confined transitional region (Cody Escarpment, CE) and lower unconfined region (LUR). Contrasting geological characteristics among these units affect streamflow generation processes. In the UCR, surface runoff and surficial stores dominate whereas in the LCR minimal surface runoff occurs and flow is dominated by groundwater sources and sinks. In the CE region the Santa Fe River (SFR) is captured entirely by a sinkhole into the Floridan aquifer, emerging as a first magnitude spring 6 km to the south. In light of these contrasting hydrological settings, developing a predictive, basin scale, physically-based hydrologic simulation model remains a research challenge. This ongoing study aims to assess the ability of a fully-coupled, physically-based three-dimensional hydrologic model (PARFLOW-CLM), to predict hydrologic conditions in the SFRB. The assessment will include testing the model's ability to adequately represent surface and subsurface flow sources, flow paths, and travel times within the basin as well as the surface-groundwater exchanges throughout the basin. In addition to simulating water fluxes, we also are collecting high resolution specific conductivity data at 10 locations throughout the river. Our objective is to exploit hypothesized strong end-member separation between riverine source water geochemistry to further refine the PARFLOW-CLM representation of riverine mixing and delivery dynamics.

Simulated CONUS Flash Flood Climatologies from Distributed Hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamig, Z.; Gourley, J. J.; Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

2016-12-01

This study will describe a CONUS flash flood climatology created over the period from 2002 through 2011. The MRMS reanalysis precipitation dataset was used as forcing into the Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). This high resolution 1-sq km 5-minute dataset is ideal for simulating flash floods with a distributed hydrologic model. EF5 features multiple water balance components including SAC-SMA, CREST, and a hydrophobic model all coupled with kinematic wave routing. The EF5/SAC-SMA and EF5/CREST water balance schemes were used for the creation of dual flash flood climatologies based on the differing water balance principles. For the period from 2002 through 2011 the daily maximum streamflow, unit streamflow, and time of peak streamflow was stored along with the minimum soil moisture. These variables are used to describe the states of the soils right before a flash flood event and the peak streamflow that was simulated during the flash flood event. The results will be shown, compared and contrasted. The resulting model simulations will be verified on basins less than 1,000-sq km with USGS gauges to ensure the distributed hydrologic models are reliable. The results will also be compared spatially to Storm Data flash flood event observations to judge the degree of agreement between the simulated climatologies and observations.

Rainfall estimates for hydrological models: Comparing rain gauge, radar and microwave link data as input for the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brauer, Claudia; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of differences in rainfall estimates on discharge simulations in a lowland catchment by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in the Hupsel Brook catchment. We used two automatic rain gauges with hourly resolution, located inside the catchment (the base run) and 30 km northeast. Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. Traditionally, the precipitation research community places emphasis on quantifying spatial errors and uncertainty, but for hydrological applications, temporal errors and uncertainty should be quantified as well. Its memory makes the hydrologic system sensitive to missed or badly timed rainfall events, but also emphasizes the effect of a bias in rainfall estimates. Systematic underestimation of rainfall by the uncorrected operational radar product leads to very dry model states and an increasing underestimation of discharge. Using the rain gauge 30 km northeast of the catchment yields good results for climatological studies, but not for forecasting individual floods. Simulating discharge using the maps derived from microwave link data and the gauge-adjusted radar product yields good results for both events and climatological studies. This indicates that these products can be used in catchments without gauges in or near the catchment. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. Improving rainfall measurements can improve the performance of rainfall-runoff models, indicating their potential for reducing flood damage through real-time control.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, L.E.; Clark, M.P.

2003-01-01

This paper examines the hydrologic model performance in three snowmelt-dominated basins in the western United States to dynamically- and statistically downscaled output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP). Runoff produced using a distributed hydrologic model is compared using daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature timeseries derived from the following sources: (1) NCEP output (horizontal grid spacing of approximately 210 km); (2) dynamically downscaled (DDS) NCEP output using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2, horizontal grid spacing of approximately 52 km); (3) statistically downscaled (SDS) NCEP output; (4) spatially averaged measured data used to calibrate the hydrologic model (Best-Sta) and (5) spatially averaged measured data derived from stations located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluding Best-Sta set (All-Sta). In all three basins the SDS-based simulations of daily runoff were as good as runoff produced using the Best-Sta timeseries. The NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries were able to capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all three basins, the NCEP-, DDS-, and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff showed little skill on a daily basis. When the precipitation and temperature biases were corrected in the NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries, the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improved dramatically, but, with the exception of the bias-corrected All-Sta data set, these simulations were never as accurate as the SDS-based simulations. This need for a bias correction may be somewhat troubling, but in the case of the large station-timeseries (All-Sta), the bias correction did indeed 'correct' for the change in scale. It is unknown if bias corrections to model output will be valid in a future climate. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for (and removal of) systematic biases in DDS simulations, and improve DDS simulations of daily variability in local climate. Until then, SDS based simulations of runoff appear to be the safer downscaling choice.

Searching for the right scale in catchment hydrology: the effect of soil spatial variability in simulated states and fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baroni, Gabriele; Zink, Matthias; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Attinger, Sabine

2017-04-01

The advances in computer science and the availability of new detailed data-sets have led to a growing number of distributed hydrological models applied to finer and finer grid resolutions for larger and larger catchment areas. It was argued, however, that this trend does not necessarily guarantee better understanding of the hydrological processes or it is even not necessary for specific modelling applications. In the present study, this topic is further discussed in relation to the soil spatial heterogeneity and its effect on simulated hydrological state and fluxes. To this end, three methods are developed and used for the characterization of the soil heterogeneity at different spatial scales. The methods are applied at the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as example. The different soil realizations are assessed regarding their impact on simulated state and fluxes using the distributed hydrological model mHM. The results are analysed by aggregating the model outputs at different spatial scales based on the Representative Elementary Scale concept (RES) proposed by Refsgaard et al. (2016). The analysis is further extended in the present study by aggregating the model output also at different temporal scales. The results show that small scale soil variabilities are not relevant when the integrated hydrological responses are considered e.g., simulated streamflow or average soil moisture over sub-catchments. On the contrary, these small scale soil variabilities strongly affect locally simulated states and fluxes i.e., soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated at the grid resolution. A clear trade-off is also detected by aggregating the model output by spatial and temporal scales. Despite the scale at which the soil variabilities are (or are not) relevant is not universal, the RES concept provides a simple and effective framework to quantify the predictive capability of distributed models and to identify the need for further model improvements e.g., finer resolution input. For this reason, the integration in this analysis of all the relevant input factors (e.g., precipitation, vegetation, geology) could provide a strong support for the definition of the right scale for each specific model application. In this context, however, the main challenge for a proper model assessment will be the correct characterization of the spatio- temporal variability of each input factor. Refsgaard, J.C., Højberg, A.L., He, X., Hansen, A.L., Rasmussen, S.H., Stisen, S., 2016. Where are the limits of model predictive capabilities?: Representative Elementary Scale - RES. Hydrol. Process. doi:10.1002/hyp.11029

The potential of coordinated reservoir operation for flood mitigation in large basins - A case study on the Bavarian Danube using coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, S. P.; Skublics, D.; Ehret, U.

2014-09-01

The coordinated operation of reservoirs in large-scale river basins has great potential to improve flood mitigation. However, this requires large scale hydrological models to translate the effect of reservoir operation to downstream points of interest, in a quality sufficient for the iterative development of optimized operation strategies. And, of course, it requires reservoirs large enough to make a noticeable impact. In this paper, we present and discuss several methods dealing with these prerequisites for reservoir operation using the example of three major floods in the Bavarian Danube basin (45,000 km2) and nine reservoirs therein: We start by presenting an approach for multi-criteria evaluation of model performance during floods, including aspects of local sensitivity to simulation quality. Then we investigate the potential of joint hydrologic-2d-hydrodynamic modeling to improve model performance. Based on this, we evaluate upper limits of reservoir impact under idealized conditions (perfect knowledge of future rainfall) with two methods: Detailed simulations and statistical analysis of the reservoirs' specific retention volume. Finally, we investigate to what degree reservoir operation strategies optimized for local (downstream vicinity to the reservoir) and regional (at the Danube) points of interest are compatible. With respect to model evaluation, we found that the consideration of local sensitivities to simulation quality added valuable information not included in the other evaluation criteria (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Peak timing). With respect to the second question, adding hydrodynamic models to the model chain did, contrary to our expectations, not improve simulations, despite the fact that under idealized conditions (using observed instead of simulated lateral inflow) the hydrodynamic models clearly outperformed the routing schemes of the hydrological models. Apparently, the advantages of hydrodynamic models could not be fully exploited when fed by output from hydrological models afflicted with systematic errors in volume and timing. This effect could potentially be reduced by joint calibration of the hydrological-hydrodynamic model chain. Finally, based on the combination of the simulation-based and statistical impact assessment, we identified one reservoir potentially useful for coordinated, regional flood mitigation for the Danube. While this finding is specific to our test basin, the more interesting and generally valid finding is that operation strategies optimized for local and regional flood mitigation are not necessarily mutually exclusive, sometimes they are identical, sometimes they can, due to temporal offsets, be pursued simultaneously.

Hydrological Monitoring System Design and Implementation Based on IOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Kun; Zhang, Dacheng; Bo, Jingyi; Zhang, Zhiguang

In this article, an embedded system development platform based on GSM communication is proposed. Through its application in hydrology monitoring management, the author makes discussion about communication reliability and lightning protection, suggests detail solutions, and also analyzes design and realization of upper computer software. Finally, communication program is given. Hydrology monitoring system from wireless communication network is a typical practical application of embedded system, which has realized intelligence, modernization, high-efficiency and networking of hydrology monitoring management.

Calculation of the temporal gravity variation from spatially variable water storage change in soils and aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leirião, Sílvia; He, Xin; Christiansen, Lars; Andersen, Ole B.; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2009-02-01

SummaryTotal water storage change in the subsurface is a key component of the global, regional and local water balances. It is partly responsible for temporal variations of the earth's gravity field in the micro-Gal (1 μGal = 10 -8 m s -2) range. Measurements of temporal gravity variations can thus be used to determine the water storage change in the hydrological system. A numerical method for the calculation of temporal gravity changes from the output of hydrological models is developed. Gravity changes due to incremental prismatic mass storage in the hydrological model cells are determined to give an accurate 3D gravity effect. The method is implemented in MATLAB and can be used jointly with any hydrological simulation tool. The method is composed of three components: the prism formula, the MacMillan formula and the point-mass approximation. With increasing normalized distance between the storage prism and the measurement location the algorithm switches first from the prism equation to the MacMillan formula and finally to the simple point-mass approximation. The method was used to calculate the gravity signal produced by an aquifer pump test. Results are in excellent agreement with the direct numerical integration of the Theis well solution and the semi-analytical results presented in [Damiata, B.N., and Lee, T.-C., 2006. Simulated gravitational response to hydraulic testing of unconfined aquifers. Journal of Hydrology 318, 348-359]. However, the presented method can be used to forward calculate hydrology-induced temporal variations in gravity from any hydrological model, provided earth curvature effects can be neglected. The method allows for the routine assimilation of ground-based gravity data into hydrological models.

Tracer-aided modelling to explore non-linearities in flow paths, hydrological connectivity and faecal contamination risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neill, A. J.; Tetzlaff, D.; Strachan, N.; Soulsby, C.

2016-12-01

The non-linearities of runoff generation processes are strongly influenced by the connectivity of hillslopes and channel networks, particularly where overland flow is an important runoff mechanism. Despite major advances in understanding hydrological connectivity and runoff generation, the role of connectivity in the contamination of potable water supplies by faecal pathogens from grazing animals remains unclear. This is a water quality issue with serious implications for public health. Here, we sought to understand the dynamics of hydrological connectivity, flow paths and linked faecal pathogen transport in a montane catchment in Scotland with high deer populations. We firstly calibrated, within an uncertainty framework, a parsimonious tracer-aided hydrological model to daily discharge and stream isotope data. The model, developed on the basis of past empirical and tracer studies, conceptualises the catchment as three interacting hydrological source areas (dynamic saturation zone, dynamic hillslope, and groundwater) for which water fluxes, water ages and storage-based connectivity can be simulated. We next coupled several faecal indicator organism (FIO; a common indicator of faecal pathogen contamination) behaviour and transport schemes to the robust hydrological models. A further calibration was then undertaken based on the ability of each coupled model to simulate daily FIO concentrations. This gave us a final set of coupled behavioural models from which we explored how in-stream FIO dynamics could be related to the changing connectivity between the three hydrological source areas, flow paths, water ages and consequent dominant runoff generation processes. We found that high levels of FIOs were transient and episodic, and strongly correlated with periods of high connectivity through overland flow. This non-linearity in connectivity and FIO flux was successfully captured within our dynamic, tracer-aided hydrological model.

How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.

A method for coupling a parameterization of the planetary boundary layer with a hydrologic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, J. D.; Sun, Shu Fen

1986-01-01

Deardorff's parameterization of the planetary boundary layer is adapted to drive a hydrologic model. The method converts the atmospheric conditions measured at the anemometer height at one site to the mean values in the planetary boundary layer; it then uses the planetary boundary layer parameterization and the hydrologic variables to calculate the fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture at the atmosphere-land interface for a different site. A simplified hydrologic model is used for a simulation study of soil moisture and ground temperature on three different land surface covers. The results indicate that this method can be used to drive a spatially distributed hydrologic model by using observed data available at a meteorological station located on or nearby the site.

Comparisons of regional Hydrological Angular Momentum (HAM) of the different models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Kolaczek, B.; Popinski, W.

2006-10-01

In the paper hydrological excitations of the polar motion (HAM) were computed from various hydrological data series (NCEP, ECMWF, CPC water storage and LaD World Simulations of global continental water). HAM series obtained from these four models and the geodetic excitation function GEOD computed from the polar motion COMB03 data were compared in the seasonal spectral band. The results show big differences of these hydrological excitation functions as well as of their spectra in the seasonal spectra band. Seasonal oscillations of the global geophysical excitation functions (AAM + OAM + HAM) in all cases besides the NCEP/NCAR model are smaller than the geodetic excitation function. It means that these models need further improvement and perhaps not only hydrological models need improvements.

Climate change impact on the discharge in meso-scale catchments and consequences for the hydropower-production in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rössler, Ole; Hänggi, Pascal; Köplin, Nina; Meyer, Rapahel; Schädler, Bruno; Weingartner, Rolf

2013-04-01

The potential effect of climate change on hydrology is the acceleration of the hydrological cycle that in turn will likely cause changes in the discharge regime. As a result, socio-economic systems (e.g., tourism, hydropower industry) may be drastically affected. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the effect of climate change on different hydrological components like mean and low-flow levels, and drought stress in mesoscale catchments of Switzerland. In terms of mean flows approx. 200 catchments in Switzerland were simulated for the reference period 1984-2005 using the hydrological model PREVAH and projection for near (2025-2046) and far future (2074-2095) are based on delta-change values of 10 ENSEMBLES regional climate models assuming A1B emission scenario (CH2011 climate scenario data sets). We found seven distinct response types of catchments, each exhibiting a characteristic annual cycle of hydrologic change. A general pattern observed for all catchments, is the clearly decreasing summer runoff. Hence, within a second analysis of future discharge a special focus was set on summer low flow in a selection of 29 catchments in the Swiss Midlands. Low flows are critical as they have great implications on water usage and biodiversity. We re-calibrated the hydrological model PREVAH with a focus on base-flow and gauged discharge and used the aforementioned climate data sets and simulation time periods. We found low flow situations to be very likely to increase in both, magnitude and duration, especially in central and western Switzerland plateau. At third, the drought stress potential was analyzed by simulating the soil moisture level under climate change conditions in a high mountain catchment. We used the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH for this aspect as soil characteristics are much better represented in this model. Soil moisture in forests below 2000 m a.s.l. were found to be affected at most, which might have implication to their function as avalanche protection forests. However, we found high uncertainties related to the downscaling method applied. Finally, we analyzed the effect of changed discharge characteristics on the hydropower production by coupling the hydrological model BERNHYDRO with a hydropower management model. For the near future (until 2050), the results indicate that losses in the hydropower production during the summer can be compensated by benefit during winter. These different aspects of climate change impacts on the hydrosphere reveal a differentiated picture involving potentially threatened and widely unaffected catchments, hydrologic parameters and hydrologic constraints to the society.

Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model: B (Set Includes, A- User's Guide for Version 3 w/disks, B-Engineering Documentation for Version 3

EPA Science Inventory

The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer program is a quasi-two-dimensional hydrologic model of water movement across, into, through and out of landfills. The model accepts weather, soil and design data. Landfill systems including various combinations o...

Impact of rescaling anomaly and seasonal components of soil moisture on hydrologic data assimilation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In hydrological sciences many observations and model simulations have moderate linear association due to the noise in the datasets and/or the systematic differences between their seasonality components. This degrades the performance of model-observation integration algorithms, such as the Kalman Fil...

VERIFICATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC EVALUATION OF LANDFILL PERFORMANCE (HELP) MODEL USING FIELD DATA

EPA Science Inventory

The report describes a study conducted to verify the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer model using existing field data from a total of 20 landfill cells at 7 sites in the United States. Simulations using the HELP model were run to compare the predicted...

Comparison of computer models for estimating hydrology and water quality in an agricultural watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Various computer models, ranging from simple to complex, have been developed to simulate hydrology and water quality from field to watershed scales. However, many users are uncertain about which model to choose when estimating water quantity and quality conditions in a watershed. This study compared...

Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valentin, Melissa M.; Viger, Roland J.; Van Beusekom, Ashley E.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hogue, Terri S.; Foks, Nathan Leon

2018-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.